NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[digger]

some where in my mind i believe nog hedged a few hundred thou barrels please correct me if i,m wrong (can,t see any details in any reports) and ---if so how much p/b
The big secret unknown. Last take i have on this with NZO is that they are out of hedging arrangement.Thought they bought out of it.Somewhere that came up.
Can anyone say for sure??????

[Bixbite]

some where in my mind i believe nog hedged a few hundred thou barrels please correct me if i,m wrong (can,t see any details in any reports) and ---if so how much p/b


Refer to #5421 posted by Chris Roberts (Public Affairs Manager NZOG)

“anyone can send us a particular question and we will do our best to answer it.”

http://www.nzog.net/contact


Cheers

[QOH]

I think you would be a huge asset to the small shareholders of NZO if you were on the board. Time for a change, you always speak common sense and I'm sure you'd represent the small shareholders well. I'm sure many small shareholders never send back their forms giving the chairman their proxy to vote for them. Who knows maybe we could swing it, I gather you're a reasonably big shareholder, I assume you can vote for yourself. I've only got 40,000 shares but you'd get my vote.

[Hawke]

Digger - Please step up for the sake of the average holder.

Hawke.

[Rabbi]

45,000 more shares for Digger

Go Digger!:):)

[bermuda]

45,000 more shares for Digger

Go Digger!:):)

He has got my 100k. Everything Digger says about NZO makes common sense.

[the machine]

digger, on one hand don't be tempted to try for a board seat, because imagine if successful, then once board decisions are taken then you would have to toe the line and many of the comments you have made, would be a thing of the past.

as a substantial shareholder your comments may carry more weight not being a director.


however if the board encouraged you to nominate, then that would be a different matter and for one we would support it - nzo may have to make room foran extra director on the board.


regards

m

[brucey09]

my 300000 votes

[Unicorn]

Digger is an excellent fellow with a lot of wisdom, and has much to offer. If the board wanted Digger to join them, then I would fully support the motion.

But I do not believe that now is the time for shareholders to force someone onto the board against its wishes. I think the board has performed well over the last year, adding shareholder value and avoiding potential loss of shareholder value. A few years ago when the company was struggling with Pike and needed an injection of common sense would have been the time for shareholders to take more control by adding someone like Digger to the board.

NZO has Chris Roberts now (and prior to that Helen Mackay) to listen to shareholder concerns and take them to management. With that arrangement in place, I don't see that small shareholders need specific representation at board level.

[digger]

Could we come up with enough votes?

QOH,thanks for your support,it came as a complete suprise. You have put the cat amounst the piogens and have left me with many comments to make to best set out my thoughts and hopes.I have decided to do this in the next few pages by replying to Unicorn first as intentional or otherwise he starts at the beginning although was the last to reply.

[digger]

NZO has Chris Roberts now (and prior to that Helen Mackay) to listen to shareholder concerns and take them to management. With that arrangement in place, I don't see that small shareholders need specific representation at board level.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for your comments and thanks for putting things the way you have as for me it makes replys eaiser.
The beginning is do you think we need shareholder representation to the board and if so how should they be acquired.I have dealt with both Helen and Chris and found them friendly and helpful.Regardless these positions were by appointment from a patriarchal system. Shareholders acting completely outside the board should decide who they want to represent them. The appointment system comes from inside itself and can be both limiting and controlling. After a 1000 years our present political election makeup evolved to remove such patronizing and potential stiffling and control. So my point here is that regardless of how helpful these two appointiees are they were never asked by shareholders to represent them.After Sue Bradford i will never again doubt the wisdom of subjecting representives to the vote.

[digger]

[QUOTE=Unicorn;213461]Digger is an excellent fellow with a lot of wisdom, and has much to offer. If the board wanted Digger to join them, then I would fully support the motion.

But I do not believe that now is the time for shareholders to force someone onto the board against its wishes. I think the board has performed well over the last year, adding shareholder value and avoiding potential loss of shareholder value. A few years ago when the company was struggling with Pike and needed an injection of common sense would have been the time for shareholders to take more control by adding someone like Digger to the board. End Quote

Unicorn my first take here is that common sense,as you put it,is on going it did not end a few years ago.The allusion is that much of what i said about Pike took a few years of hindsight to be seen as common sense.I pray that what i am now saying about acquistions can be seen in much shorter time as fortunes can change very quickly in the oil industry.Here hindsight common sense would be useless.
You use the phrase 'shareholders to force onto the board' . Regardless of whether Unicorn ,bermuda or Balance is elected onto the board from a voting structure outside the board control,the results should be accepted.From my impressions i would say they have all evolved enought to see such a independent decision as welcolming as opposed to forced.
And from your top line i would also say i would support you if shareholders decide on yourself .However i would remove the "wanted".If you are selected that is it. I do not accept a dictatorial status whereby we can only do what they want,and i doubt they do either.

[digger]

He has got my 100k. Everything Digger says about NZO makes common sense.

Bermuda,you are the one i would select.Becides how can you say i have more common sense than yourself when you continually agree with me[that is one of my backhanded jokes]. Shame you partially sold out of NZO as it can somewhat give a impression of less passion and committment to the cause.Also you can hear,more people orientated,like meetings and talk well in public,although i am the better looking[my second joke].

[bermuda]

Bermuda,you are the one i would select.Becides how can you say i have more common sense than yourself when you continually agree with me[that is one of my backhanded jokes]. Shame you partially sold out of NZO as it can somewhat give a impression of less passion and committment to the cause.Also you can hear,more people orientated,like meetings and talk well in public,although i am the better looking[my second joke].

Hi Digger,
I think the NZO PR machine is doing just fine and doesnt really need a shareholders' 'representative. Chris Roberts and DS are doing a fine job. So we dont need those communication lunches anymore.

I sold down NZO because I saw better opportunities in the CSG sector. As a dedicated NZO supporter believe me this was a hard decision but it proved successful although I must admit if these CSG stocks get hammered much more, I will have to review that decision!

Dont worry, I still have 100k NZO and look forward to the successful commissioning of Kupe and some further Tui drills later on. Of course a T/O of PPP would help.

There is a big CSG future to come .You only have to take a glance at it to see why the big boys are getting involved. About to hot up again.

I wish you could have been at the Hopkins Lecture last week. Geoff Henderson gave a very good talk on wind. I look forward to your party in November. Cheers

[digger]

Hawke,Malcolm,Rabbi,Brucey09.
Thanks all for showing this unexpected support for many of my comments here on sharetrader that has led you to believe i have something to add to the continued growth of NZO.My passion for the company even i in my darkest moments i can not deny.
I believe it is in the best interest of a public company to have a direct representive voted in outside the format of the AGM prearranged stage managed format.Companies that do the best always have a continued large holding by more than one director.Apart from TR the current holding is such that the directer pay is more important in a economic sense than shareprice appreciation.The largest company in NZ evolved by having all directors as large shareholders. The little farmer in Fonterra never had to wonder if a director was just there for the pay.We have too many directors with too many fingers in too many pies. Passion can only go around so many times.When you read what is listed in the Annual report i sometimes wonder where is the time for NZO given all the other committments.
The company going forward needs a yearly elected representive voted in by shareholders outside the controll of the board that has time to give undivided attention to NZO.The question is am i the right choice?

[tim23]

Good to see AGM in Wellington again, change of venue to Holiday Inn, sister co. to Intercontinental where last years held.

[Corporate]

Digger, I take it you have a rather large shareholding in NZO and have been involved for many years?

Do you want to be on the board and what do you think it would take to get you there?

[digger]

digger, on one hand don't be tempted to try for a board seat, because imagine if successful, then once board decisions are taken then you would have to toe the line and many of the comments you have made, would be a thing of the past.

as a substantial shareholder your comments may carry more weight not being a director.


however if the board encouraged you to nominate, then that would be a different matter and for one we would support it - nzo may have to make room foran extra director on the board.


regards

m

Machine i think you have hit the nail squarely on the head.I would like a elected representive on the board but you have certaintly pointed out at least one reason why it should not be me.I have been the leader and president of clubs and committees but i am the strong individual type and not the follow the leader regardless of where he goes.The boards of public companies require team solidarity on collective decisions for unually very good reasons but when that eventually turnes out to be dumb it is almost impossible to hold myself back.
What i think should happen is that we be far less automatic on giving our support the directors as they come up for reelection.A stirr up is always healthy.We need directors that can give single minded attention to the company.Which directors for instance have backed the idea of acquistion that is so big it is even outside of Australia. Dumb--has the potential to ruin the company.
So Machine i think you are the most correct in saying what you have.I can do the best for the company,other shareholders and myself by doing what i am doing.
Thanks all . Be back soon with my anti acquision plan for the AGM.

[Bixbite]

Why dont NZO merge or buyout PPP? NZO will have over 20% of the Tui revenue with PPP on board. You can recover the T/O cost of PPP in one year and after that is pure profit. Management team can be under one umbrella, and cost significantly reduced.

Also with PPP on board, NZO will be in the NZX20. I really cant see why there is PPP and NZO. One entity brings so much benefit.

disc: shareholder


NZO does not need to merger or buyout PPP will have over 20% of the Tui revenue.

NZO just needs to buyout one of the PPP’s subsidiary company “WM Petroleum Ltd” which holds all PPP’s NZ oil permits (including PEP 38158 Tui, PEP 38483 Hector and PEP 38399 Toke).

PPP will then keep its OZ permits that the company will be run by the new manager.

That’s what I think the best way they will do. Lets see!


Cheers

[The Great Gold Guru]

Shareprice taking it on the nose this morning ... some pretty serious selling the last few minutes saw it drop from 160 to 155 very quickly , 160k offered at 157 , buy depth looking a little thin. Amazing that sentiment is so negative with oil at $125 .... where will NZO be if it keep falling to say $100 ?? $1.20 !!

Disc: Profit on buying 50k oppies at 5c and converting them has now left the building !!!!

[WACC]

.....
however if the board encouraged you to nominate, then that would be a different matter and for one we would support it - nzo may have to make room foran extra director on the board.


regards

m[/QUOTE]

The board don't have to make room. The rules of the company allow state a minimum of 3 directors and a maximum of 7 directors. They currently have 6...do the maths. However I note that NOG does not have a nominations committee.

What I would like to know…what expertise would Digger bring to the board?

[upside_umop]

Shareprice taking it on the nose this morning ... some pretty serious selling the last few minutes saw it drop from 160 to 155 very quickly , 160k offered at 157 , buy depth looking a little thin. Amazing that sentiment is so negative with oil at $125 .... where will NZO be if it keep falling to say $100 ?? $1.20 !!

Disc: Profit on buying 50k oppies at 5c and converting them has now left the building !!!!

yeah, definately getting a hiding on momoho...similar to what happened with hector. took a few days...we may see it settle lower than the option price..which would make it interesting if nzo started buying a few shares. would be negative dilution :D

[Chalice]

Shareprice taking it on the nose this morning ... some pretty serious selling the last few minutes saw it drop from 160 to 155 very quickly , 160k offered at 157 , buy depth looking a little thin. Amazing that sentiment is so negative with oil at $125 .... where will NZO be if it keep falling to say $100 ?? $1.20 !!

Disc: Profit on buying 50k oppies at 5c and converting them has now left the building !!!!

Someone saw a bargin and picked up the 162K @1.57 - nice + another 155K soon after!
Pity it wasn't me but up to my neck in NZO anyway.
I think market sentiment has ruled, atleast this morning, rather than fundamentals, Tapis still over US130...may give the bank manager a call.

[duncan macgregor]

Someone saw a bargin and picked up the 162K @1.57 - nice + another 155K soon after!
Pity it wasn't me but up to my neck in NZO anyway.
I think market sentiment has ruled, atleast this morning, rather than fundamentals, Tapis still over US130...may give the bank manager a call. CHALICE, I am old enough to remember the same kind of comments made in 1987. Falling tide takes you down regardless of how good a ship you are riding on. Get set for a few dead cat bounces but the trend will be for money to flee the markets after the olympics when the real crash happens. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

See if it can hold up at $1.50. If it breaks through $1.50, then it may free fall to $1.20-1.10. Over night oil price is also important indicator.

[Chalice]

CHALICE, I am old enough to remember the same kind of comments made in 1987. Falling tide takes you down regardless of how good a ship you are riding on. Get set for a few dead cat bounces but the trend will be for money to flee the markets after the olympics when the real crash happens. Macdunk

Fair call Duncan - agree with the outgoing tide/ship analysis - but I am not a trader for 90% of my portfolio and and have never been confident at predicting highs or lows of either the market or a given share.
Hence I tend to go with "gut" and if it means buy high sell higher (eventually) so be it.
I'm still not convinced with the olympics comments that are doing the rounds, either for oil or markets, but as said - have never been one to be able to pick it accurately/consistently.

What I would like to know is what the specific arguments against NZO going offshore are.

The fundamentals for offshore (i.e. outside NZ) oil/gas production are significantly different compared to a NZ company having to compete for/gain marketshare for other types of products/services i.e. find oil gas anywhere and you can sell it at the same price as TUI (assuming Tapis quality) vs. offering say a retail chain alternative in Australia.

[duncan macgregor]

CHALICE, The company comes last, your finances come first, who gives a toss what they do as long as they increase your wealth. Dont fall in love with a company or you will go down the gurgler sooner or later. Macdunk

[digger]

CHALICE, I am old enough to remember the same kind of comments made in 1987. Falling tide takes you down regardless of how good a ship you are riding on. Get set for a few dead cat bounces but the trend will be for money to flee the markets after the olympics when the real crash happens. Macdunk

I have 100% the opposite view with reference to oilers anyways.The market may crash generally but the oilers will go back up.The scenario i posted before where the Chinese will go out of there way to put on a happy face for the olympics will dominate all.Note that the americans are suddenly talking about getting on with the Iran and might even open a consolate.My pick is it is all politcs. The US has always found the Chinese against everything they try to do with IRAN. It would not supprise me at all if behind the scene a deal has been struck where the US will make every effort this side of the Olympics in exchange for Chinese support afterward when the Iranians carry on with there weapons development.And always remember the Israelies will never tolerate a nuclear Iran. So on this side of the olymypics everything will be done to lower crude as is happening. The **** hits the fan later. Keep it in mind the games will have nil long term effect on PO regardless of the political current expedient moves.
NZO has goelogy on its side.In fact down the track Momoho's smaller than expected gas and condensate pool will become economic just as the central field area has post Maui.What we are seeing is that the market wants it now and therefor has discounted it to nil as economics have the habit of doing.About 3years ago TUI was discounted to virtually nil and look how cracked that turned out to be.
Economics will have the floor in the short run but once the geological limits start to reasseret them selves after the games it will go back to a rising SP.
But for the very short run i believe an attempt will be made to scare out the margin holders and force the price down further.This play has happen a few time before with NZO that is why i decided to not margin trade.
Cheers all

[Chalice]

CHALICE, The company comes last, your finances come first, who gives a toss what they do as long as they increase your wealth. Dont fall in love with a company or you will go down the gurgler sooner or later. Macdunk

Again agree with your comments, but I am quite happy with my position, shares are my play-dough.
The reason I love mountain biking so much is that even though the downhills are thrilling (and much more enjoyable than the bears), its the long grind up to the top that gives the real satisfaction!

[Chalice]

I have 100% the opposite view with reference to oilers anyways.The market may crash generally but the oilers will go back up.The scenario i posted before where the Chinese will go out of there way to put on a happy face for the olympics will dominate all.Note that the americans are suddenly talking about getting on with the Iran and might even open a consolate.My pick is it is all politcs. The US has always found the Chinese against everything they try to do with IRAN. It would not supprise me at all if behind the scene a deal has been struck where the US will make every effort this side of the Olympics in exchange for Chinese support afterward when the Iranians carry on with there weapons development.And always remember the Israelies will never tolerate a nuclear Iran. So on this side of the olymypics everything will be done to lower crude as is happening. The **** hits the fan later. Keep it in mind the games will have nil long term effect on PO regardless of the political current expedient moves.
NZO has goelogy on its side.In fact down the track Momoho's smaller than expected gas and condensate pool will become economic just as the central field area has post Maui.What we are seeing is that the market wants it now and therefor has discounted it to nil as economics have the habit of doing.About 3years ago TUI was discounted to virtually nil and look how cracked that turned out to be.
Economics will have the floor in the short run but once the geological limits start to reasseret them selves after the games it will go back to a rising SP.
But for the very short run i believe an attempt will be made to scare out the margin holders and force the price down further.This play has happen a few time before with NZO that is why i decided to not margin trade.
Cheers all

Thanks Digger, Can you please let us know what your thoughts on the below are?

What I would like to know is what the specific arguments against NZO going offshore are.

The fundamentals for offshore (i.e. outside NZ) oil/gas production are significantly different compared to a NZ company having to compete for/gain marketshare for other types of products/services i.e. find oil gas anywhere and you can sell it at the same price as TUI (assuming Tapis quality) vs. offering say a retail chain alternative in Australia.

[macduffy]

See if it can hold up at $1.50. If it breaks through $1.50, then it may free fall to $1.20-1.10. Over night oil price is also important indicator.

Hi doc
I don't understand much of this tech stuff but what do you base the $1-20 - $1-10 on ?
The only support I can see is around the $1 mark.

:confused:

[fish]

Great buying opportunities today-have just scooped up a lot more at 1.55 .
Looks like digger was right and I was wrong about the sell off - I didnt expect it to fall so much with such good fundamentals -as will be revealed in the quarterly report due this month.
In the meantime I will be in the minority and keep buying -at these levels it is almost giving them away .

[Glendoonie]

I have 100% the opposite view with reference to oilers anyways.The market may crash generally but the oilers will go back up.
Economics will have the floor in the short run but once the geological limits start to reasseret them selves after the games it will go back to a rising SP.
And what part of "non renewable resource" do the proletariat not understand? There are not enough fossil fuel resources on this planet to satisify the exponential growth in demand for them. Of course the the SP will go up and up and up ... Oh, but then what?

[Nitaa]

Hi doc
I don't understand much of this tech stuff but what do you base the $1-20 - $1-10 on ?
The only support I can see is around the $1 mark.

:confused:I too agree that the bottom will be about $1.10 to $1.20 over the next year or 2. The high could be anyones guess.

What has changed since NZO reached $1.00 ealier this year is the extra $200m in the coffers through the conversion of the options.

Investors who bought on margin will be sweating but medium term the stock looks great.

Fundamentally this stock is great should oil remain above $100.

AWE and PPP look very attractive.. First wait for price of oil to stablelize then bam...Nita is back for more

[fish]

I too agree that the bottom will be about $1.10 to $1.20 over the next year or 2. The high could be anyones guess.

What has changed since NZO reached $1.00 ealier this year is the extra $200m in the coffers through the conversion of the options.

Investors who bought on margin will be sweating but medium term the stock looks great.

Fundamentally this stock is great should oil remain above $100.

AWE and PPP look very attractive.. First wait for price of oil to stablelize then bam...Nita is back for more

Nita
You fail to give any reason for why you have picked such a low .
So far today there has been a lot of support at $1.55-$2.5million dollars worth .
When this quarterly report is published it will be the first big good news to hit the market this year and may attract more buyers .
IMHO the sp has far more upside than downside.
NZO has fantastic income-nearly a $1.000,000 a day from light sweet crude that refineries want-why should the sp fall so much?
p.s.-I used margin trading mainly to convert extra options I bought-asb bank ensured I would not get a margin call-would have to fall below a dollar before that and then I would sell other assets rather than nzo

[Awamoa]

At these prices this company must be vulnerable to being taken out by big player?

[fish]

SP.
But for the very short run i believe an attempt will be made to scare out the margin holders and force the price down further.This play has happen a few time before with NZO that is why i decided to not margin trade.
Cheers all

you have been dead set right margin calls will scare the sh-t---and there storys will get further confused[/QUOTE]

You are right on the $1.42 approx initial margin call possibility-since then I have moved other shares into the account ,plus a mortgage on property plus i had to sell some nzo heads in order to convert the options .Havnt calculated exactly at what price when i would be forced to raise more for the margin call as it depends on other shares i still own-such as contact which hit $8 today -but is probably 1/2 the current price .
In the meantime my strategy is to keep picking up nzo shares when i feel they are oversold.
Buyers disappeared at the end of trading today . I have learned that this is often spurious -many of the sellerswill not be genuine and should the sp head up will disappear very quickly .They are put there I believe by buyers who wish to force the price down-as are some of the posts here.
My own feeling based on observing the market is that very few sellers will be prepared to sell at less than $1.52 and there will be strong support at the $1.49/$1. 50 level
Time will tell
A fundamental principle that I hold is honesty -most that post on this site are (beware of new posters without a track record )-but some are being less than honest when they downramp or upramp and I guess we have to live with it .
However it would be advantageous to all if only honest debate appeared .

[fish]

[QUOTE=fish;205809]

INTERESTING I WISH I LISTENED:rolleyes::rolleyes:----YEA RIGHT

Malcolm- I am very happy as to what I have done-without margin trading I wouldnt have been able to sell my heads at prices up to $1.87 or buy options at 2 cents .

I do listen to all debate-we all have a lot to learn-not least you(strange how your spelling has improved so quickly even if your punctuation hasnt )

[duncan macgregor]

FISH, HONEST DEBATE?. You have got to be joking mate. If you say anything other than ramp up NZO on this thread you get all sorts of childish abuse. You get people like yourself ramping the company telling all and sundry that you have gambled yourself up to the eye balls. Try for a change to say how foolish it is to do that then watch the chidish abuse flow.
Anyone that buys anything without a [if it all goes wrong sell policy], is a straight out gambler. The money coming in to NZO coffers can fly out in the opposite direction if they get it wrong in the future, thats your gamble. We know what they have, but we dont know what their intention is in the future. Thats what will raise or lower the sp other than that market sentiment will control the share price. Macdunk

[bermuda]

you have been dead set right margin calls will scare the sh-t---and there storys will get further confused

You are right on the $1.42 approx initial margin call possibility-since then I have moved other shares into the account ,plus a mortgage on property plus i had to sell some nzo heads in order to convert the options .Havnt calculated exactly at what price when i would be forced to raise more for the margin call as it depends on other shares i still own-such as contact which hit $8 today -but is probably 1/2 the current price .
In the meantime my strategy is to keep picking up nzo shares when i feel they are oversold.
Buyers disappeared at the end of trading today . I have learned that this is often spurious -many of the sellerswill not be genuine and should the sp head up will disappear very quickly .They are put there I believe by buyers who wish to force the price down-as are some of the posts here.
My own feeling based on observing the market is that very few sellers will be prepared to sell at less than $1.52 and there will be strong support at the $1.49/$1. 50 level
Time will tell
A fundamental principle that I hold is honesty -most that post on this site are (beware of new posters without a track record )-but some are being less than honest when they downramp or upramp and I guess we have to live with it .
However it would be advantageous to all if only honest debate appeared .[/QUOTE]

Hi Fish,

I know Phaedrus might shoot me for this comment but when I look at the chart it has just hit the bottom line. That and the fact that they are making a million a day, makes it a compelling BUY


However, market sentiment is back in force. Once we get rid of these fellows who cant see what this company is about, the price will move upwards and past Broker 'valuations'.

Remember there will be a whole host of investors who are really are really starting to get spooked by this drop. They took margin calls etc because they believed the story. And now one little slip at Momoho and a slide in the oil price,...and you have the classic of all classic sell signals.

BUY, I wouldnt muk around. A million dollars a day.And great margins. Know any other company that can match that? No way. Sorry, but this is not a ramp. Just simple observation.

[bermuda]

rid of these fellows who cant see what this company is about, the price will move upwards and past Broker 'valuations'.

Remember there will be a whole host of investors who are really are really starting to get spooked by this drop. They took margin calls etc because they believed the story. And now one little slip at Momoho and a slide in the oil price,...and you have the classic of all classic sell signals.

BUY, I wouldnt muk around. A million dollars a day.And great margins. Know any other company that can match that? No way. Sorry, but this is not a ramp. Just simple observation.

i f you believe in what you have said BERMUDA sell you CSG YOU MENTIONED YESTERDAY AS A LOT BETTER FUTURE THAN NZOG:confused::confused:[/QUOTE]

I would, but the CSG leverage is better. Are you getting more?

[bermuda]

I would, but the CSG leverage is better. Are you getting more?

sold nod nog at $1.84 and been moving MY BUY ORDERS DOWN EVERY NIGHT FOR LAST 9 TRADING DAYS GOING DOWN AGAIN TOMORROW do,nt like catching falling knives[/QUOTE]

You have read the market well. I would say this is about the bottom. Depends a bit on tonite with oil but I reckon about now is about right. What will be your buy signal?

[Phaedrus]

The fact that they are making a million dollars a day...and have great margins....makes it a compelling BUY.

I agree - but now is not the time to do it. While NZO is in a downtrend with the price falling rapidly, it would pay you to "muk around". Why not wait for NZO to show a little strength before buying? Why not wait for a technical "Buy" signal? What's the hurry? Look at how the volume is increasing as the downtrend gathers steam. In my opinion, this downtrend is not over.

The support at $1.52 - $1.53 may hold, but I for one would not be prepared to put money on it.

Wouldn't you rather have sold out of NZO at $1.66 and now be watching and waiting for an advantageous re-entry point?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO721.gif

You say "When I look at the chart it has just hit the bottom line". What bottom line is it that you are referring to here, Bermuda?

[bermuda]

malcolm
You have read the market well. I would say this is about the bottom. Depends a bit on tonite with oil but I reckon about now is about right. What will be your buy signal?

phadrus--- thank you i was looking for DEVINE HELP NOW THE POPE IS GONE FROM OUR NEAR SHORES-- my thinking has been the over EXCITED PIPE DREAMERS streatching there arm----[/QUOTE]
I must admit that now that I have really started listening to him, it does make sense. Wait till the bottom and then buy on the upside. Yes, makes sense.

As do fundamentals .lols

[fish]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;213681]The support at $1.52 - $1.53 may hold, but I for one would not be prepared to put money on it.

Thx for the interesting post Phaedrus. I find the reasoning educational and its much appreciated .

I think we all agree (apart from Duncan ) that nzo is grossly undervalued and not surprisingly have many reasons for guessing the bottom line of the current downtrend .
My guess is that only small volumes will trade under $1.52
My reason is partly based on my own emotions and stubborness- I find it difficult to sell at a loss when I am convinced an asset is worth much more.
Recently a lot of options (often 5 million a day )were traded in the 2cent to (I think )15cents . Personally I bought at prices between 2 cents and 13.2 cents.
Whatever happens this week I expect NZO will take off before the end of the month -the reason being based on the quarterly report .

[Sideshow Bob]

Apart from anything else, the company has an extra $190m in the bank since the end of the month. Nothing is happening in a hurry with the money (which is not a bad thing) and meanwhile it earns interest. OK, it's not the primary function of the company, but it keeps accumulating.

[digger]

My 2 cents worth is that this fall is very much like the one we had after the OC's were converted.It is now feeding on itself and will force out the margin holders.I see no one in particular doing this but the collective wisdom of the crowd will make it happen.In other words it will happen just because enough investers have an inkling that it will,so everyone holds back to not catch falling knives.In the end it will matter little that the company is earning nearly 900000 a day.Fundamentls are not part of the equation at this stage.
If making money is why you are here, it is easy to see what Warren Buffett means when he says be brave when others are fearful and freeful when others are brave.The game is you pick the bottom---your call.

[Jess9]

I wonder if the board has considered some level of share buy back? If NZO is the best buy on the block ATM...

[friedegg]

it very much looks like its following last post option conversion,last time i had a ridiculous amount of options to convert and used margin lending,i was right on the border of thier lending % and needed the price to increase to get a good buffer on the risk of margin calls,i think from memory i had about 4-5 different margin calls over a couple years and they always forced me into selling head shares in the falling market,its not nice

[bermuda]

it very much looks like its following last post option conversion,last time i had a ridiculous amount of options to convert and used margin lending,i was right on the border of thier lending % and needed the price to increase to get a good buffer on the risk of margin calls,i think from memory i had about 4-5 different margin calls over a couple years and they always forced me into selling head shares in the falling market,its not nice

Wait till the bottom and buy on the upside. Or dont be greedy.

[zorba]

Oil price has pushed back over US$130 ..... very early morning serious trading now starting up on the Nymex.

Will be interesting to see in which direction will go the rest of the day's trading.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/88

.

[bermuda]

Oil price has pushed back over US$130 ..... early morning serious trading now starting up on the Nymex.

Will be interesting to see in which direction goes the rest of the days Nymex trading.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/88

That Puppet Rice has opened her mouth again...Iran...two weeks...or else. And Peters is going to be in the limelight again. She must really like him. She is coming to see Winston.

I mean, why else would she come to NZ?
She has a pretty busy fortnight coming up.

And oil therefore goes higher.

[Corporate]

Talk about an emotional roller coaster. One weeks I'm up 12% the next I'm nearly down 10%! Not the greatest feeling.

I've been toying with the idea of selling first thing in the morning and taking the hit. But I know it's buying into the fear that others have obviously reacted to. The quarterly report is also in the back of my mind.

It's definitely opened my eye's to the importance of TA. For which I know very little.

[bermuda]

Talk about an emotional roller coaster. One weeks I'm up 12% the next I'm nearly down 10%! Not the greatest feeling.

I've been toying with the idea of selling first thing in the morning and taking the hit. But I know it's buying into the fear that others have obviously reacted to. The quarterly report is also in the back of my mind.

It's definitely opened my eye's to the importance of TA. For which I know very little.

Just wait a wee bit. Believe in what you feel....do the homework first though.

[zorba]

.
Sux, you are right if the oil price falls, then NZOG will fall, ur not exactly a genius .....

[remy]

stop talking out of your arse, you have no idea what your on about, nzo drop below $1 pffft.. blatant troll account here.

[digger]

love your twisted logic mate. Here is another along the same line. NZ has been found to be floating on oil. The news shook the world so much that the price of oil fell below extraction cost so the oil is not worth producing.
You wouldn't have another alais named Balance would you??

[bermuda]

Lols, but you have come in fresh without any reference in an offside position. And that's a penalty.

So you had better go and read Twilight in the Desert and tell us what you think of it.

Oil could do anything but in the end it goes higher.

But, welcome to the forum. All views appreciated as long as they are supported with a reasonable argument.

Lot of guys and gals panicking at the moment. It reminds me of those wildebeest running into the jaws of the crocodiles.

[Nitaa]

Nita
You fail to give any reason for why you have picked such a low .
So far today there has been a lot of support at $1.55-$2.5million dollars worth .
When this quarterly report is published it will be the first big good news to hit the market this year and may attract more buyers .
IMHO the sp has far more upside than downside.
NZO has fantastic income-nearly a $1.000,000 a day from light sweet crude that refineries want-why should the sp fall so much?
p.s.-I used margin trading mainly to convert extra options I bought-asb bank ensured I would not get a margin call-would have to fall below a dollar before that and then I would sell other assets rather than nzoGood point.

2 key factors come to mind. Oil dropping below $100 should there be any significant downturn or correction. The other is Pike. If Pike strikes problems, delays of 2 months or more sentiment will drive the sp down. Since oil is still high it can potentially go one way or the other to quite an extreme. Hence my low valuation of $1.10 to $1.20 if either or both of these factors come into play.

The flip side has the potential to rocket the sp for many number of reasons. PRC takeover by the Indians, NZO a potential takeover. High renveue with long term revenue streams. Oil prices spiking (which may be good short term but bad long term) and so on.

Hope that sheds some light.

disc. hold nzo

[the machine]

very debatable what POO will do in next few weeks - we certainly do not know.

what we do know however is weather issues in caribbean are starting to come into play
[remember usa has not had a bit hit from a hurricane for 2 seasons now] - already up to "D" for named systems and not even end of July.

given recent one day spikes in the POO, then its only a matter of how long it takes for adverse weather to have a significant influence in one day POO spike - it might be as soon as tomorrow.

why the price of WTI and not Tapis is pushed bythe media in au/nz is another issue - said it before, nzo should detail the tapis price in all their announcements, so people do not get mislead by WTI.

M

[Hoop]

Warren Buffett means when he says " be brave when others are fearful and fearful when others are brave".

This would have to be the most misguided quote in the investment world.
I hate it:mad:
I would hate to think how many (some inexperienced) investors have taken this piece of advice and have lost everything.

Most times bravery is mistaken for calculated action.

Soldiers who risk their lives to save others against huge odds are brave and they deserve their medals and the public's admiration

Investors being brave risking everything....nah Stupid!!!

While we are on the subject of risk.

THIS IS HOW HOOP SEES THE REVELANCE OF USING SIMPLE TA within my bear market investment strategy ( I have my moments:o:))

NZO firing off sell signals since its decline from 168c has now hit its 154c or (152or3) Phaedrus support line. If this support fails we have to look at 132/5cents for the next major major support level set back in July 07 with that of early March 2008 (Phaedrus chart has it at 128 my chart 132 but this immaterial)
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Originally Posted by shephejame http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=213727#post213727)
Talk about an emotional roller coaster. One weeks I'm up 12% the next I'm nearly down 10%! Not the greatest feeling.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shephejame Resource stocks are well known rollercoasters....many investors avoid them especially the conservative types with quezzy tummies...adrenlin junkies love them:D:D:D.


Also Shephejame if you are thinking of exiting don't take my exiting strategy advice.
As an investor I have one great failing..... when I exit I go splat!! :o
I can't time a good exit to save my soul.
Always seem to sell at the bottom of the days prices a natural ability I am not proud of....however a bad exit at that time doesn't seem so bad a few days later.
FOR EXAMPLE ...MY LATEST SPLAT! NZO (TA sell signals appeareared) tried a greedy exit last friday and stuffed up, ended up several cents lower at 162 with still no sells... so made my mind up to sell at market(162)but only a quarter of my holding hoping for a bounce off the small support 162 level before I sell the other quarter ...but...no bounce :( so ended selling half today at 156. Still have a quarter holding left.....holding a slight paper loss (instead of small profit) at the moment due to greed.( I bought this whole holding at 161c a month ago) so it's been minimal loss, maximum effort, maximum mess.

The reason why I am selling/sold NZO

1 The bear has found the NZO hiding place (TA sell signals)..and from past experience I have learnt not to fight bears...it's much financially healthier to run away and hide somewhere else.....DONT BE BRAVE. Bugger the FA as the bear can't count.

2 NZO may or may not hold support at 153. It has much risk attached to it, and my chosen bear market investing strategy won't allow this ..so I keep to the discipline of my strategy which says sell. If it holds that's great I can always buy back in.... I have that freedom of choice. If it breaks 153 support it has a more than 50% chance of testing the next 132/5 support and some chance again reaching the 120c TA target.

3 The upside... if 153c support level holds it will require momentum (Not on Phaedrus chart) which has just gone negative so there is no upward push (pressure) If tomorrow onwards brings in buyer numbers and upward pressure there are resistance levels at 162/3 (old support level) and again at 170/1 then 180 and 186 to contend with. At the moment the momentum indicators are showing that 162/3 resistance is going to be difficult to break.
Therefore what TA is telling me today is I am facing a lesser chance of a 10c gain and a bigger chance of 20c loss so sell as the odds are against me. However (for the optimist) tommorrow is another day and TA will be telling me an updated version.. perhaps better odds? Who knows.??.. I could be buying NZO again in a couple weeks ..one just never knows.

4 Better performing stocks elsewhere but risky at the moment, possible bear market rally forming in equities..will wait for comformation ( TA buy signals in individual stocks)

5 Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice.

6 Riding out the downtrend may lock you in if the anticipated rebound does not materialise..therefore giving you restricted choice..I don't want that at the maturing end of a bear market, as bargains will be appearing shortly and I want money to shopping.



A few of you are wondering where on earth that 120c figure came from when Dr Who mentioned and also what Nita quoted
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted by
macduffy
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=213605#post213605)
Hi doc
I don't understand much of this tech stuff but what do you base the $1-20 - $1-10 on ?
The only support I can see is around the $1 mark.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is a TA target formula if the 153 support line is broken
153 - (186 - 153) = 120c


Before you all go out tommorrow and sell.....On the bright side of things...

TA is not an exact science but does give you odds to reckon with. It all depends on what type of Investor you are and your ability to accept risk and at what degrees of risk you are willing to take to accept the reward offered. Using TA tools gives you the playing field and you the investor mark out it's boundaries to play in. For example if you are a long term medium risk investor... willing to risk downturns for better long term reward and is adverse to frequent buy and sells (e.g Tax + IRD) then short/medium indicators tell you what type of storm is approaching and you can assess whether to weather it out or not and would note that the 15 month uptrend line is still in place and it would need the NZO price to fall below 110c to create a long term downtrend ...so TA wise... some long termers will not react to these recent sell signals as their individual investment strategy does not require them to. Also TA is less important to the long and very long investors FA would probably be more important to them.
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NZOGSUXS Hello ..bye.. very quick Cameo... won't be missed

...Wrong Company mate This one is a NZ gem. NZO is helping New Zealand stay out of the economic $hit. You wishing it to go down will affect your back pockey .....less mun less fun....comprendo amigo!!
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PS ......Sorry about the colour my spell checker has thrown a wobbly

[foolme]

Well i could not sleep being out off NZO and every thing points to a strong buy,so i'm in boots and all.I just love this story.

[777]

Seems like NZOGSUX has gone already.

[duncan macgregor]

stop talking out of your arse, you have no idea what your on about, nzo drop below $1 pffft.. blatant troll account here. This is a reply to someone with a sense of humour who obviously was poking harmless fun at the blue eyed brigade.
Whats wrong with you VINCE banning NZOGSUX and letting this idiot off. You are turning into an easily manipulated do gooder. I object to posts like the above from people who have nothing to contribute other than low life gutter talk. It takes all types to make a market some of you people want to lighten up before the crash. Macdunk

[digger]

Hoop your last post was too long to quote directly. What traders leave out of th equation compared to long term holders is the tax requirements.If i sold out of NZO i have held them quite a number of years and would not be subjected to tax.Your in and out is loaded with commission and tax which makes the net to the invester a very different story.
Traders have a lot more records to keep and sometimes from my early trading dats get tied up taking losses you did not want to to balance out a upcoming tax bill. The tax i found became an unwelcome consideration that ends up bending your investment decisions.

In a way deciding to trade on TA sell or buy signals comes down to a choice of investing lifestyle.Fortunes can certainly be made but mostly they are achieved in hindsight.TA followers never wisper a word about the false signals they followed.
Naturally we all have to make our own choices.

[dsurf]

My view is Buy now.

This stock is now on the Ausi's radar screen so expect greater volatility. This makes trading ranges larger as the day traders treat it like any other stock. Why buy now? 192 million were bought for a $1.50 so that implies a little bit of support no matter what the chart says and it can / will rise just as quick. May I suggest a baby steps approach with a little position that is added to if / when it moves into profit, as otherwise the SP will have risen before the chart says it is time to buy (unless you have real time data).

The economic outlook for the WORLD economy (US is not the only user of oil - just the owner of the world's media outlets) has improved a little with circa 3% growth - up from 2.5ish for 2009. Hardly the end of the world.

The other little item that will DOMINATE the next couple of months far more than the depressed US consumer is Hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico. A big storm year is picked. Anyone remember a fiesty lass called Katrina? I am sure CNN etc will love it!

[trackers]

You have read the market well. I would say this is about the bottom. Depends a bit on tonite with oil but I reckon about now is about right. What will be your buy signal?

Tapis 140.42 +0.45 +0.32% PrevClse:139.97 1Wk:150.06 4Wk:139.45 (Tapis higher than it was 1 month ago........)

NZO is a crazy share, god... Goes up a few cents and everyone starts talking about how its going to hit $2, hell even $3 within a few weeks... Goes down a few cents, next minute everyone is going on about how POO is about to hit <$100 a barrel, and NZO is destined for sub $1 (LOL).

Just relax people, geeeeeeezzzzzz.... I sold the lot at 1.88 at a screaming profit, knowing that she was going to have a decent correction due to oppies conversion, unstable POO, and possible dry Momoho drill.... But couldn't live without NZO so bought them all back + a bit more at the same price :)

If NZO doesn't hit $2 before year end I'll eat my hat, all these short term fluctuations are neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned

[Hoop]

Hoop your last post was too long to quote directly. What traders leave out of th equation compared to long term holders is the tax requirements.If i sold out of NZO i have held them quite a number of years and would not be subjected to tax.Your in and out is loaded with commission and tax which makes the net to the invester a very different story.
Traders have a lot more records to keep and sometimes from my early trading dats get tied up taking losses you did not want to to balance out a upcoming tax bill. The tax i found became an unwelcome consideration that ends up bending your investment decisions.

In a way deciding to trade on TA sell or buy signals comes down to a choice of investing lifestyle.Fortunes can certainly be made but mostly they are achieved in hindsight.TA followers never wisper a word about the false signals they followed.
Naturally we all have to make our own choices.

Digger agree mostly with what you say
I make sure I have an open mind to anything, as anything can happen.
TA can go wrong (not an exact science) when it does..one type of false action is called a trap.

For those people with NZO on margins this may ease your uneaseness.
quote from CNBC this morning over 80% of the traders think the recent oil movement down could be a bear trap.

Breaking News........there is a tech wreck happening in America as I write with after hours trading, so tomorrow equities in USA may be ugly and today in Asia we may see a big equity drop and odds on that available money may flee back to Oil commodites.
This is the buying pressure NZO needs to hold 153 support and to advance upwards....

What a diffence 9 hours has made since my last post.

Disc: have just removed my sell order for the rest of NZO shares

[digger]

2. China's Energy Shortages
With preparations for a successful Olympics giving the country a new sense of purpose, so far China has had to contend with severe blizzards, a major earthquake, an unusually hot summer, and now an electricity shortfall which could set records. In the midst of all this, Beijing reports that its GDP is still growing at better than 10 percent a year, implying that demand for oil and electricity continues to grow.

Until recently many thought that the growing electricity shortfall would force a repeat of 2004 when China’s oil imports jumped suddenly so that local diesel generators could make up for inadequate power from the national grid. In recent days, however, Beijing has gone to great lengths to explain that there will be no surge in China’s demand for imported oil to make up for shortfalls in electric power production. The Chinese point out that the cost of imported diesel has risen four-fold in the last four years making enterprise-generated electricity uneconomical.

Given the current state of world oil markets, China’s demand for crude and oil products over the next six months may be key to world prices. Unlike four years ago when demand got ahead of generating capacity, this time it is a coal shortage that is reducing electrical output. China’s shortfall in electricity production is currently reported to be around 30 gigawatts as compared to a 40 gigawatt shortage in 2004. China has already increased coal production by 11 percent to 1.2 billion tons in the first half, but is having trouble delivering the increased production to power plants. Coal stockpiles have dropped 8 percent in the last two weeks. Spot coal prices in China have doubled since the first of the year and price caps on electricity have complicated the situation.

In the first half of the year, China’s crude imports increased by 3.2 percent while imports of gasoline and diesel jumped many fold to make up for problems created by the earthquake and to ensure that embarrassing shortages would not develop. During the Olympics, China already has banned 300,000 heavy trucks from entering the area around Beijing, shut down polluting plants and construction sites, and banned half the region’s 3 million cars from driving each day using an odd-even license plate system. These measures alone will obviously save prodigious quantities of motor fuels and ensure there will not be shortages during the Olympics.

The key issue for the oil markets is what will happen in the fall. Beijing insists that GDP growth will continue to be in the vicinity of 10 percent no matter what happens to the world economy. The surge in coal production and transportation during the last six months is likely to be unsustainable. Chinese auto sales now are running at a rate of 10 million new cars a year. Like oil, world coal markets are extremely tight. Given the complexity of the situation, the prospects for Chinese imports over the next year are cloudy. Despite Beijing’s insistence that increased oil imports are not likely this year, they may turn out to be necessary if China is to maintain its goals for economic growth.


I hope poster will see between the lines what i mean about China doing everything to have fuel available for the olympics and why this will for the very short period of the games put downward pressure on world oil prices.Note China big oil imports in the first 6 months.This will allow them to somewhat withdraw now to ease prices.

[Bilo]

Hoop said: "Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice." So what do you intend to do with it Hoop? Currently NZO's cash and "current" assets are being heavily discounted particularly as inflation is increasing. Go to Zimbabwe and convert your cash to their cash:rolleyes: Perhaps this is just an opportunity to buy - at least some people think so if for every seller there is a buyer.

Could be a big if as they are possibly adding to a short position to (partially) protect their long position in case the world capitulates or oil goes below USD50 - it is behaviour like this that can cause the world to capitulate....

I think another poster (maybe Digger) mentioned that the NZO share price has retreated in the past around "significant" events and I was in general agreement so didn't think much more about it until I was looking at the following chart. Perhaps we have over-reacted to whoever makes a habit of helping the SP down because it fades into the curve as NZO progresses. Now how will this current blip look at $3.00?:)

[trackers]

Oil prices back up




8:11AM Tuesday July 22, 2008


http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/oilpumps2301.jpg


NEW YORK - Oil prices rose overnight on a threat of new sanctions against Iran and as Tropical Storm Dolly headed into the Gulf of Mexico.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery added US$2.16 to settle at US$131.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was oil's first gain in a week.
Energy traders bid oil prices up after a weekend meeting between Iran and six world powers, including the US, failed to break the deadlock over Iran's disputed nuclear programme.
In her first public comments since Saturday's meeting in Switzerland, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice accused Iran of not being serious at the talks despite the presence of a senior US diplomat, and warned it may soon face new sanctions. The six nations have given Tehran a two-week deadline to freeze suspect activities and start negotiations or be hit with new penalties.
Iran is Opec's second largest oil producer and No. 2 in terms of the world's natural gas reserves.
Investor perception about the likelihood of conflict between Iran and the West has been a major reason for oil's rise in recent months. Traders fear Tehran could respond to an attack aimed at halting uranium enrichment by blocking oil supplies in the strategically situated Straight of Hormuz, a passageway that handles 40 per cent of the world's tanker traffic.


"The buying has picked up ... as US traders return to their desks after a weekend in which the only outcome to the much-anticipated talks in Geneva between Iran and the West was disappointment," Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy's director of market research, said in a research note.
Oil prices also rose on Monday on concerns that Tropical Storm Dolly may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Royal Dutch Shell PLC began evacuating workers from some of work sites in the western part of the Gulf, although it said it did not expect Dolly to affect production.

ctd...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10522811

[Casa del Energia]

2. China's Energy Shortages
With preparations for a successful Olympics giving the country ....
.

Good, well said micro article. Largely concur and agree.

(By the way - I've found a new scheme for making a fortune: Farm NZO holders for adrenalin)

[Phaedrus]

Here is a longterm NZO chart that may be of interest. The histogram at the bottom is Volume, with green bars marking up-days and red bars marking down-days. I have selected the highest volume days and marked their corresponding price point with blue arrows, sized according to the volume. You can see that these almost invariably mark significant tops and that the higher the volume, the more significant the top.

Price/Volume climaxes like these (sometimes called blowoffs) commonly take place at the top of trending moves. Prices peak on high volumes then retreat and these climaxes often mark important turning points. Such "over-reactions" are a normal and fairly common occurance and need no conspiracy theories to explain them.

The chart clearly shows the extended trading range that NZO was in for 3 years.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO722.gif

Bilo asks "How will this current blip look at $3.00?".
Answer :- The same as it looks now.

The biggest, clearest, most obvious Price/Volume climax that NZO has had, to date.

[Bilo]

Such "over-reactions" are a normal and fairly common occurance and need no conspiracy theories to explain them.



Beautiful chart Phaedrus, sometimes you surpass your own high standards!
It is not a conspiracy theory. This type of shorting is a practice expounded as a good use, by Macquarie, for shorting capability on the Macquarie Prime website. You have to love dual listed shares designed to attract Aussie underarm 'ers...and how low can you take the NZO share price with this sort of behaviour - well as low as you can find shares to sell.... and probably not lower than shares you hold....Particularly with a host of NZ institutions who refuse to trade. The "we just hold brigade" and we hope "not loan" either.

[Hoop]

Bilo Quote green Hoop reply black

..."Hoop said: "Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice." So what do you intend to do with it Hoop?
Hopefully beat MacDunk to the roadkill :D:D:D ...nah seriously ...when investor conditions improve and the equity market risk factor diminishes my cash % will drop... at the moment my portfolio is cash 80% shares 20% Currently NZO's cash and "current" assets are being heavily discounted particularly as inflation is increasing. and NZ$ falling...that's the minus side the plus is they get more NZ$ per barrel. The NZO fundamentals are great the only fundamental negative is management..I don't have total belief that they will invest that money to its maximum potential. I kept on having paranoia type nightmares that they going to pour all this money back down a black empty hole(s) then turn around and ask us investors for more. In saying that, I'm realistic to the point that this won't entirely happen, but they will have failures ..that the nature of the Oil business..so I guess the market factors this in the FA somehow and that perceived risk value shaves a few cents of the NZO share-price. This perceived risk value is a variable as investors will have different degrees of anxiety at different times. Go to Zimbabwe and convert your cash to their cash:rolleyes: Perhaps this is just an opportunity to buy - at least some people think so if for every seller there is a buyer. Yep its called the Marketplace the quick,astute, experienced and skilled win out the rest lose..that's life, even in Zimbabwe.

Could be a big if as they are possibly adding to a short position to (partially) protect their long position in case the world capitulates or oil goes below USD50 - it is behaviour like this that can cause the world to capitulate.... Fully agree!! Humans are animals therefore humans have animal survival instincts and can act in group paranoia (illogical type) such as a stampede behaviour for no reason. The market is a group therefore read up on group behaviour and investment behaviour ...then you realise that an individual and small groups of individuals cannot alter the overall market. The bear market has much illogical behaviour... can't fight it but we can learn to take advantage of it, by adopting Bear market Investment Strategies

I think another poster (maybe Digger) mentioned that the NZO share price has retreated in the past around "significant" events and I was in general agreement so didn't think much more about it until I was looking at the following chart. Yes Digger is very knowledgeable in the Oil area and his posts are valuable to us less knowledgeable people. He has told us he has been a very long investor in NZO so He would be the best to judge the behaviour of this stock (NZO) and its share price Perhaps we have over-reacted we always do ..human behaviour to whoever makes a habit of helping the SP down This thread is well known for its ramping and anti ramping because it fades into the curve as NZO progresses. Now how will this current blip look at $3.00?:)..." Don't know that answer, if I knew I 'd be richer than Buffet:cool:

[Nitaa]

Isnt it great that we dont know the future. Apart from the obvious, no one can say with any degree of accuracy what will happen in 24 hours time.Will oil drop $15 in 1 day, will it spike $15...yardi ya. One thing i do know life is a lot more simpler when you are investing with other peoples money rather than your own.

I love the debate between TA and FA. Actually no one is wrong. It simply depends on what gets the juices flowing. As Bermuda pointed out. Sit and hold since 26 cps about 5 years ago makes pretty comfortable lifestyle. On the other hand, JK or DM making 100% profits plus per year must also make them feel king. Point is, everyone has their own levles of risk management etc. Someone at 60 is less likely to take a risk that someone at 20.

discl. fundamentalist and believe a lot less in TA.

[Bixbite]

.

I trust the fate. “When I have the money but the prises are high, when I need the money but the prises are low”.


.

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, JOE KING and Macdunk dont claim to make 100% each year even although we did it in 2007. The idea when investing is to understand the market you are in.
If you look at the ASX competition [they are not game to show the NZX results] it is run FA style hold for one fool year. I am minus 32% and in the top half STRAT and SERPIE are fighting over the wooden spoon. TA would have seen me get out with a 5% loss with my money safely tucked up in the bank.
NZO have a great source of income over the short to medium term but thats not what will control the sp, which is dictated by market sentiment. When the market crashes which it will do shortly after the olympics the price of oil will double.
When it hits the $200 dollar a barrel mark, it will send the global economy into a deep recession. The NZO sp will tumble, not because of lack of profits, but simply panic selling in a crashing market. The JOE KINGS and the MACDUNKS are smart enough to see it coming, and will be well gone before it hits the fan. Macdunk

[bermuda]

NITA, JOE KING and Macdunk dont claim to make 100% each year even although we did it in 2007. The idea when investing is to understand the market you are in.
If you look at the ASX competition [they are not game to show the NZX results] it is run FA style hold for one fool year. I am minus 32% and in the top half STRAT and SERPIE are fighting over the wooden spoon. TA would have seen me get out with a 5% loss with my money safely tucked up in the bank.
NZO have a great source of income over the short to medium term but thats not what will control the sp, which is dictated by market sentiment. When the market crashes which it will do shortly after the olympics the price of oil will double.
When it hits the $200 dollar a barrel mark, it will send the global economy into a deep recession. The NZO sp will tumble, not because of lack of profits, but simply panic selling in a crashing market. The JOE KINGS and the MACDUNKS are smart enough to see it coming, and will be well gone before it hits the fan. Macdunk

I know market sentiment is a powerful force but the brokers will be recommending NZO at $US200 a barrel. And Kupe ( 2/3 rds liquids ) will be coining it too next year.

Macdunk,
Things are going to get a lot worse but at US200 a barrel I think NZO could attract a lot of attention particularly as Kupe is a longterm secure revenue earner.

[Chalice]

2. China's Energy Shortages

... In recent days, however, Beijing has gone to great lengths to explain that there will be no surge in China’s demand for imported oil to make up for shortfalls in electric power production.....

I hope poster will see between the lines what i mean about China doing everything to have fuel available for the olympics and why this will for the very short period of the games put downward pressure on world oil prices.Note China big oil imports in the first 6 months.This will allow them to somewhat withdraw now to ease prices.

China to increase oil product reserves after price hike - report

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China will increase its reserves of oil products following the recent fuel price hike in order to ensure a level of emergency supply, the official Shanghai Securities News reported.

Su Bo, director of the State Reserves Bureau, was quoted as saying that refiners are expanding capacity after the oil products price hike last month, and specific plaans to raise reserve levels will be implemented soon.

The bureau in May released reserves in order to ensure supply in Sichuan province, which was hit by a strong earthquake.

Su said the bureau plans to increase the number of fuel tanks, with construction of some tanks already started.

The paper said Yunnan and Sichuan provinces in the southwest are among the priority areas for reserve capacity expansion.


Note its "reserve capacity expansion" not replenishment.

[Corporate]

Jez someone wants at few at $1.55

[Dr_Who]

China to increase oil product reserves after price hike - report

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China will increase its reserves of oil products following the recent fuel price hike in order to ensure a level of emergency supply, the official Shanghai Securities News reported.

Su Bo, director of the State Reserves Bureau, was quoted as saying that refiners are expanding capacity after the oil products price hike last month, and specific plaans to raise reserve levels will be implemented soon.

The bureau in May released reserves in order to ensure supply in Sichuan province, which was hit by a strong earthquake.

Su said the bureau plans to increase the number of fuel tanks, with construction of some tanks already started.

The paper said Yunnan and Sichuan provinces in the southwest are among the priority areas for reserve capacity expansion.


Note its "reserve capacity expansion" not replenishment.

Wouldnt it be cheaper for the US and Chinese govt to simply buy out some of these mid/small cap oilers than to buy oil direct?

[neopole]

Dr Who,
thats the best question i have read in ages.
buy a midcap with 50 or 60 mmbo in place and cap it, till its needed as an emergency resource......... problem is....... if its a stratigic resource...... they will need it in place on the home land..... otherwise its pointless.

[Chalice]

Dr Who,
thats the best question i have read in ages.
buy a midcap with 50 or 60 mmbo in place and cap it, till its needed as an emergency resource......... problem is....... if its a stratigic resource...... they will need it in place on the home land..... otherwise its pointless.

China Communist Party official urges use of forex reserves to buy resources
21 Jul 2008
Xinhua Newsfeed

BEIJING (MNI) - China should use its foreign exchange reserves to purchase overseas energy and mining assets amid surging international oil prices, a senior official with the Communist Party proposed.

"The value of China's foreign exchange reserves has shrunk badly because of US dollar depreciation and in the meantime spending lots of dollars purchasing crude oil at very high prices," Li Lianzhong, head of the economic department under the Chinese Communist Party Policy Research Office, told a conference over the weekend.

"We should encourage our companies to purchase overseas mines and oil fields, changing foreign exchange reserves into resources reserves," he said.

this is also an interesting read:

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=953

They may need a 700mmbo field...

Read somewhere that they are focusing on crude first vs. refined, using up to 30 tankers moored in ports.

[Crypto Crude]

The JOE KINGS and the MACDUNKS are smart enough to see it coming, and will be well gone before it hits the fan. Macdunk

Pity the joe kings and mack dunks did not call the looming housing crisis before it happened...
Job only half compete Id say...
;)
.^sc

[tim23]

Just relax people, geeeeeeezzzzzz.... I sold the lot at 1.88 at a screaming profit, knowing that she was going to have a decent correction due to oppies conversion, unstable POO, and possible dry Momoho drill.... But couldn't live without NZO so bought them all back + a bit more at the same price

You didn't know there was going to be a screaming correction, you guessed right, in fact they hit $1.90 came back to $1.70 rose to $1.84 and now back to where they are now but goood on you for buying back, I always look at that with the benefit of hindsight of course!

[duncan macgregor]

Pity the joe kings and mack dunks did not call the looming housing crisis before it happened...
Job only half compete Id say...
;)
.^sc SHREWDY the JOE KINGS and the Macdunks have just done that. The housing cycle is an on going event that moves on. Property developers expect it to happen, and indeed hope it happens. The share market crash is different it takes the blue eyed brigade out the market never to return. I have been predicting the crash for the last seven months in the share market its only 30% down tell me at what level we can call it a crash. The only people hurting in the housing downtrend are the over committed and the greedy. Macdunk

[tim23]

Duncan - what % loss do you call a crash, I always assumed it to be 20%?

[JBmurc]

NZO looks cheap all right had to buy another 22,000 at 121.5 ASX -am confindent we'll see NZO form a base at these levels 1,20's asx 1.50's nzx even if oil falls back futher NZO are awash with cash in there bank account with high NZ Interest rates adding futher to NZO bottom line

with all these bargins round NZO should be able to pick up some great assets on the cheap

[Crypto Crude]

the JOE KINGS and the Macdunks have just done that
well well well mackdunk,
you said one thing... then went out and did the exact opposite...

we could make a good team... your skills on the sharemarket, my skills in the housing market....:D
I wont quote that infamous quote of yours, backed up by the king...You know the one...
I'll leave all the housing chit chat to that appropriate thread...
have a good night...
:cool:
.^sc

[AMR]

Is there any reason why I should be buying this stock???

It really does feel like this whole Company is so over hyped on this board. Are there reasons behind why you all make it sound it is the be all and end all stock to buy. POO will keep dropping over the coming months till it gets well below $80USD. All you over hypers will have to buy some new undies when they get ripped.

To sum it up, NZO will still be a fundamentally good buy at current prices if oil goes back to $100.

1. Tui - $1m day in cash, this field has outperformed expectations by far.
2. Kupe - Stable income for the next decade starting 2009.
3. Pike -Worth $3 a share possibly, NZO holds 31%.

Really depends on the price of oil. If oil goes into a medium term downtrend back to 60, I don't think any oilers will perform.

[Lion]

R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = desperate = banned ???

[AMR]

Ah the Lion with no courage. NZOGSUX is my cousin boy. He also dislikes Over hyping blue sky dreamers like you. Freedom of speech prevails. I have my opinion that the stock will cost $1.10 in 6 weeks. Some posters on here are well overdue for a reality check.

Do tell us why you dislike NZO...is it just NZO or is it all the oilers in general? Were you ever a holder?

[zorba]

R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = desperate = banned ???



R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = TROLL = banned

.

Troll = computer Yabo

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/Internet_Troll_velu_ill_artlibre_jnl.jpg/230px-Internet_Troll_velu_ill_artlibre_jnl.jpg

A Yabo: "unrefined, gigantic, coarse, childish, self-conscious, permanent, loud, superficial, vulgar, snobbish, boorish"

(wikipedia)

.

[troyvdh]

AMR....if you dont mind

...me thinks this is another piss taker like those posted by cujo....whatever ....just out there taking the micheal because he can..and nothing more...best disregarded me thinks..

Cheers troy

[zorba]

This backs up the fact that some of the posters on here can't even think for themselves and are just sheep following the others to the slaughter. Think of something original to say or don't bother posting.


R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = TROLL = banned

.

Troll = internet Yabo

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/Internet_Troll_velu_ill_artlibre_jnl.jpg/230px-Internet_Troll_velu_ill_artlibre_jnl.jpg

A Yabo: "unrefined, gigantic, coarse, childish, self-conscious, permanent, loud, superficial, vulgar, snobbish, boorish"

(wikipedia)

.

[Nitaa]

Ah AMR at least we agree on one thing that everybody hates helen.

Its not that i dislike NZO its more of the fact that its soooooo overpriced and due for a major correction of at least 50%+.NZO will be north of $3.00 within 6 months. NZO is sooooo undervalued its crazy.

rsole. I love your name especially when you say it fast aye.

Good luck with your investing.. another good stock you should jump all over is dpc. its been discountd by over 90%.. this must the the most under valued stock here.

[digger]

oil down to $126P/B NYMEX 3AM kiwi time anothier us$4 drop= good for long term health of world economics theirfor world growth wiil continue to expand----- oil demand will zoom oil price will increase slowly again---- ps back in bought asx mon

Malcolm you are describing the undulating plateau as I first read from oil exectives.This was given as oppossed to a peak in production---oil drops ---economic activity increases---causes oil demand to increase----leads to oil price increasing--leads to reduced demand--leads to oil droping----etc
But that is not how i see it.I am sticking my neck out and saying China is as much as possible removing itself from the buying market to lower prices to put on a happy face for the Games.So yes in the short term oil will fall to about 120 is my guess.Enjoy it while it lasts.

[fish]

oil down to $126P/B NYMEX 3AM kiwi time anothier us$4 drop= good for long term health of world economics theirfor world growth wiil continue to expand----- oil demand will zoom oil price will increase slowly again---- ps back in bought asx mon

Very obvious to all now why you were downramping -before buying .
Not a nice spectacle .

Interesting that Tapis is holding its own price around $140 .

[STRAT]

This backs up the fact that some of the posters on here can't even think for themselves and are just sheep following the others to the slaughter. Think of something original to say or don't bother posting.Welcome back Secta Surfa :D

[Mr Tommy]

Oil down to $126 - not a biggie.

Remember, Tui was given the green light based on US $40.

[trackers]

oil down to $126P/B NYMEX 3AM kiwi time anothier us$4 drop= good for long term health of world economics theirfor world growth wiil continue to expand----- oil demand will zoom oil price will increase slowly again---- ps back in bought asx mon

Tapis is up US$2.32 overnight or 1.64%.... Still higher than 1 month ago

[Grand Uber]

This backs up the fact that some of the posters on here can't even think for themselves and are just sheep following the others to the slaughter. Think of something original to say or don't bother posting.

Your only saying what 30 other smart as*ses have said before (and been wrong aswell)

Give some justification of why you think the price is overvalued, because there is plenty of posts arguing the opposing side of the arguement.

I dont hold this stock, but i like to see intelligent discussion which i can use to form an outline for my research on stocks.

I also enjoy reading the negative posts on companies in the hot seat like this one, but not ones set out to aggrevate readers.

Try be a little less aggressive and a little more constructive in your comments, although my guess is your not here to be constructive. Your just here to fling your monkey poo

[dsurf]

Rsole - shouldn't you be posting on an alternate energy forum since you have only emitted gas so far. Can you please tell me WHY you think this stock is overvalued? If it is due to oil falling by say 50% to around US$60 - what will make oil fall that far? Will cars be banned? Are you secretly aware of a new hydrogen type power that will revolutionise life in the 21st century. I would love to know what it is. Please keep on posting because I love the harmony between your name & what flows after.

[duncan macgregor]

Get ready for everything in the garden is lovely. Price of oil will stay down for the next few weeks, and the markets will rise. The olympics must be seen to be a success, China must save face at what ever the cost. Its after that when they pull the financial legs and wings off that Yanky aggressive pest, that the trouble really starts. The price of oil will hit $200 in less than twelve months, crashing the world markets. NZO might have money sitting in the bank, but what will that money be worth. I took my money to Australia at 90c it is sitting on a 13% gain in 20 months. Not bad interest for changing countries. Anyone thinking long term is in for a rude shock, when the markets crash. The signs are well posted just like they were in 1987 with the only difference this one will be bigger and longer.
Macdunk

[dsurf]

Macd - "Markets" will likely crash at 200 poo - that does not mean that the oil sector will crash though - just the other sectors - the oil sector will probably show 100% gains unless other forms of energy are immediately available. A worse outcome for the oil sector would be poo of $50 - then the oil sector would crash & "markets" rally hugely

[remy]

Macd - "Markets" will likely crash at 200 poo - that does not mean that the oil sector will crash though - just the other sectors - the oil sector will probably show 100% gains unless other forms of energy are immediately available. A worse outcome for the oil sector would be poo of $50 - then the oil sector would crash & "markets" rally hugely

my thoughts exactly being new to the stock market i don't understand why mcd and others are saying that if oil hits prices such as 200us a barrel why this will be bad for the likes of nzo and other oilers..

[duncan macgregor]

my thoughts exactly being new to the stock market i don't understand why mcd and others are saying that if oil hits prices such as 200us a barrel why this will be bad for the likes of nzo and other oilers.. History repeats look it up, when the market crashes everything crashes. Macdunk

[Naylz]

Why all the negative sentiment with Momoho not coming in. It cost $50 million for the rig. NZOs portion of that was $8 000 000. So Momoho is capped but it only lost NZO 8 days of income. At these levels, Im definitely buying more.

[Chalice]

my thoughts exactly being new to the stock market i don't understand why mcd and others are saying that if oil hits prices such as 200us a barrel why this will be bad for the likes of nzo and other oilers..

Think of a field of 20 bulls and 1 steer - the bulls are about to get castrated - the steer will run with the bulls when the knives come out...

[Hoop]

Keep hearing this phrase lately...market noise.
definition of Noise is scrambled data (or sound waves)
Listening to it and absorbing scrambled data makes one undecided, confused:confused: and cause error in thinking, therefore create short term mistakes.
Probably made one of those short term mistakes today at 10.01 this morning sold the rest of NZO for 155...probably go splatt with my exit.

Trying to research market noise ...it usually occurs at a transitional phase of a market cycle whether up or down and it divides people investors and traders alike, both long and short investing yield no good results.

Therefore decided to exit and wait for clear direction to emerge.

NZO is definitately on my watch list, too good a company to ignore.

Seems to be a move to equities with a hint of a rally..this will move available money away from Commodities, e.g oil ,metals etc for the meantime......maybe....who knows?? with all this global noise, Hoops confused:confused::confused:

Disc: only have PPP left rest in cash.

[Dr_Who]

Why all the negative sentiment with Momoho not coming in. It cost $50 million for the rig. NZOs portion of that was $8 000 000. So Momoho is capped but it only lost NZO 8 days of income. At these levels, Im definitely buying more.

It is called the psychology of the market. Market sentiment has gone cold abit on NZO due to falling oil price, dry well and other oil stocks falling overseas.

When's the next NZO drill?

[upside_umop]

When's the next NZO drill?

A while away...maybe after Maari and further evaluation by KUPE JV partners on whether to drill the north side of Momoho fault. Other than that, they are struggling to get hold of a rig. 2010 drilling of tui extra well isnt confirmed either...

[Dr_Who]

A while away...maybe after Maari and further evaluation by KUPE JV partners on whether to drill the north side of Momoho fault. Other than that, they are struggling to get hold of a rig. 2010 drilling of tui extra well isnt confirmed either...

Thanks Upmop. I am interested in the future of NZO and not the current sp as most posters here complain about. I have a funny feeling that NZO will announce a acquisition soon with all that cash. Good or bad acquisition, I dont know, only time will tell.

More drilling acquisition would be good. :) Better still, buy PPP out cheap with current market sentiment. Imagine having over 20% of Tui and all the cash flowing in.

[trackers]

TUI surpasses 15million barrels


The Tui Area Oil Fields are located in the offshore Taranaki basin, New Zealand, approximately 50km off the coast in water depth of about 120m. Production began on 30 July 2007 - just 4½ years after discovery, and 20 months after the investment decision was taken. Tui was New Zealand's first stand-alone offshore oil development.

Production Performance:
On 22 July 2008 total Tui production passed the 15 million barrel mark - less than a year after production began on 30 July 2007. In the original projections, total production was not expected to reach 15 mmbbls until mid-2009.



http://www.nzog.com/n37.html

[Chalice]

It is called the psychology of the market. Market sentiment has gone cold abit on NZO due to falling oil price, dry well and other oil stocks falling overseas.

When's the next NZO drill?

I think that the next "find" will most probably be a reserves upgrade of Kupe or maybe, just maybe an aquisition;

KUPE:
"A reserve reassessment is expected following full analysis of information gained during the development well drilling".

Wouldn't imagine this will be too far away and there is always the potential for yet another Tui upgrade - seems to be performing Extremely well after end June/beginning July's daily output hickup which was weather and testing related.

Any upgrade of reserves tends to be taken as a given by the market and therefore has no risk/little associated with it as comapred to exploratory drilling.

[Corporate]

TUI surpasses 15million barrels



http://www.nzog.com/n37.html

41,700 barrels per day, for 365 days. Outstanding.

What was the figure they had expected to pull out in the first year?

[Chalice]

41,700 barrels per day, for 365 days. Outstanding.

What was the figure they had expected to pull out in the first year?

YTD PRODUCTION:

Up to 8 July: Approx 210,000 barrels - 26,000bpd

Now 800,000 after 22 days - 590,000barrels/14 days = 42,000bpd

So Tui has been producing at the average rate for the whole of last year for the past two weeks. What Water Cut?

Unbelievable!

[Nitaa]

Get ready for everything in the garden is lovely. Price of oil will stay down for the next few weeks, and the markets will rise. The olympics must be seen to be a success, China must save face at what ever the cost. Its after that when they pull the financial legs and wings off that Yanky aggressive pest, that the trouble really starts. The price of oil will hit $200 in less than twelve months, crashing the world markets. NZO might have money sitting in the bank, but what will that money be worth. I took my money to Australia at 90c it is sitting on a 13% gain in 20 months. Not bad interest for changing countries. Anyone thinking long term is in for a rude shock, when the markets crash. The signs are well posted just like they were in 1987 with the only difference this one will be bigger and longer.
MacdunkYour first few sentences is simply acknowledging Diggers sentiments but you put your own interesting words on it

Investors who bought on magin to convert miust be getting nervous. I refer back to a golden rule regarding not to borrow to invest. Subjective but more specifically margin, private loads etc. Off setting agaisnt your mortgage is not so bad as long as you maitain some reasonable equity

[Nitaa]

I understand nz has some not so nice weather. This will effect production for a few days i guess

[Crypto Crude]

shephejame-41,700 barrels per day, for 365 days. Outstanding.
What was the figure they had expected to pull out in the first year?


Im reading off the 2006 Annual report...
NZO's 2P reserves were 3.5 Million barrels..
and 30% of oil reserves expected to be recovered in the first year...
3.5/.125= 28 million barrels of oil
28,000,000*.3= 8.4 million barrels produced in the first year...

41,700*365= 15.2 million barrels recovered
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

WOW MUMMA
:cool:
.^sc

[temptation]

When I did a course on TA, a couple of Americans came over to NZ and started off with a few rules about the size of the companies that you monitor. At that point they were able to tell us, don't worry about moving the market, because you won't.

If those rules were applied to NZ stocks, Telecom would probably be the only stock that would qualify for trading using TA.

I do believe that you can use TA to identify buy and sell signals with stocks like NZO, but I am concerned that we can move the market and the signals can become self fulfilling prophecies. If a handful of us put a stop loss sell order at 150, once 150 is reached there could suddenly be a few million shares for sale at market price, and there may not be enough buyers before we get to 100. This effect could already be causing the volatility that we have seen.

[foodee]

I do believe that you can use TA to identify buy and sell signals with stocks like NZO, but I am concerned that we can move the market and the signals can become self fulfilling prophecies. If a handful of us put a stop loss sell order at 150, once 150 is reached there could suddenly be a few million shares for sale at market price, and there may not be enough buyers before we get to 100. This effect could already be causing the volatility that we have seen.

Yep, sometimes know as 'stop-loss' raid. More prevelant in Oz.

[mibo]

Perhaps NZO should look at directing some exploration money into Fiji...

Extract Wednesday, July 23, 2008- [
According to the report, "The Petroleum Potential of Fiji," over 20 structural reefal traps have been identified on seismic lines within the Bligh Water Basin with unrisked recoverable oil reserves.
It is estimated each structure has reserves of at least 270 million barrels. ]

http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=95833

[Dr_Who]

Perhaps NZO should look at directing some exploration money into Fiji...

Extract Wednesday, July 23, 2008- [
According to the report, "The Petroleum Potential of Fiji," over 20 structural reefal traps have been identified on seismic lines within the Bligh Water Basin with unrisked recoverable oil reserves.
It is estimated each structure has reserves of at least 270 million barrels. ]

http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=95833

POLITICAL RISK!!! :eek:

Why go to banana republic and exposed to political risk when there are plenty of cheap and undervalued oilers in Aussie???

[AMR]

When I did a course on TA, a couple of Americans came over to NZ and started off with a few rules about the size of the companies that you monitor. At that point they were able to tell us, don't worry about moving the market, because you won't.

If those rules were applied to NZ stocks, Telecom would probably be the only stock that would qualify for trading using TA.

I do believe that you can use TA to identify buy and sell signals with stocks like NZO, but I am concerned that we can move the market and the signals can become self fulfilling prophecies. If a handful of us put a stop loss sell order at 150, once 150 is reached there could suddenly be a few million shares for sale at market price, and there may not be enough buyers before we get to 100. This effect could already be causing the volatility that we have seen.

Don't put an actual stop in the market, it will get hunted down. The big boys sell to trip your stop so they can enter on the cheap.

All these spikes you see on the intraday charts are due to people leaving stops on with big orders and temporarily flooding the markets.

[blockhead]

Looking at the fairly high number of shares going through today I was wondering how this fits into a price/volume spike or "blowoff" as referred to by the chart Phaedrus did a while back, only I was thinking this is a reverse price spike because it is at the bottom of a decline in the sp over recent days. 1.7m shares through today and holding @ $1.53 - $1.54

[Bixbite]

.

I spotted this news release, which might give us some idea for the oil future situation.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=aiz


“Air NZ Fuel Hedge Position as at 21 July 2008”


ps. I know it is not crude oil.

disc. I don’t have any knowledge about oil including cooking oil and oil hedging.



.

[AMR]

Looking at the fairly high number of shares going through today I was wondering how this fits into a price/volume spike or "blowoff" as referred to by the chart Phaedrus did a while back, only I was thinking this is a reverse price spike because it is at the bottom of a decline in the sp over recent days. 1.7m shares through today and holding @ $1.53 - $1.54

Big volume = strong commitment = strong support at this price.

[blockhead]

Interesting to note the big volume is only on the NZX especially as there were commentators on this forum at earlier times espousing the knowledge and wisdom of Ausies in understanding "oilers".

Seems several buyers in NZ are keen on NZO at these levels.

[tim23]

What is your definition of a crash & can you tell us again at what cross rate you moved your $ to Australia (a great move, I'm off on holiday to Sunshine coast in 2 weeks and price of holiday just gets a little dearer!) - some of us may have missed it?!

[duncan macgregor]

What is your definition of a crash & can you tell us again at what cross rate you moved your $ to Australia (a great move, I'm off on holiday to Sunshine coast in 2 weeks and price of holiday just gets a little dearer!) - some of us may have missed it?! TIM I moved all my investments to AUSTRALIA dec 2006 NZD was worth 90c today its worth 77c to 78c. My definition of a crash is when all the good companies end up in prolonged downtrends. We have exceptions at the start of a downtrend leading up to no exceptions in a crash. Dead cat bounces become common but in the end fall by the wayside. The market has crashed in NZ. Manufacturing is gone, retail is a disaster, even companies with a source of income like NZO get caught up fighting against the falling tide. Leave your money in Australia Tim the NZD still has a long way to fall. Macdunk

[bermuda]

TIM I moved all my investments to AUSTRALIA dec 2006 NZD was worth 90c today its worth 77c to 78c. My definition of a crash is when all the good companies end up in prolonged downtrends. We have exceptions at the start of a downtrend leading up to no exceptions in a crash. Dead cat bounces become common but in the end fall by the wayside. The market has crashed in NZ. Manufacturing is gone, retail is a disaster, even companies with a source of income like NZO get caught up fighting against the falling tide. Leave your money in Australia Tim the NZD still has a long way to fall. Macdunk

I agree with Macdunk about the Aussie/NZ exchange rate. I did the same.

But dont forget that the income from Tui, Kupe and Pike is in US dollars.

NZO, the best performing company on the NZX. One million dollars per day and with Kupe to come on stream next year, plus a share of Pike at record ( and increasing ) coking coal prices.

I have seen this post option performance before.* Price of oil went down but Tapis held up. Reason...the world supply of sweet light crude has well and truly peaked.

*Dont be scared off by all these guys who bought in at the margin. Get stuck in now and and reap the rewards.

[tim23]

Well done you guys; thought about it especially at the time of T3 - I didn;t do it, could have should have no excuses!

[The BOWMAN]

More drilling acquisition would be good. :) Better still, buy PPP out cheap with current market sentiment. Imagine having over 20% of Tui and all the cash flowing in.

PPP has hedged most of their Tui oil output at a ridiculously low price, that is why their share will never take off.

[upside_umop]

I think you'll find they havent...

[upside_umop]

Hi R.sole. Cool name.

I was referring to the post before yours by the bowman...you were just too quick.

Momoho might not be finished...further evaluation and potential drilling on north side.

What stocks have you held this year?

[sideline]

PPP has hedged most of their Tui oil output at a ridiculously low price, that is why their share will never take off.

????? another one who doesn't understand the issue of hedging - how many more ?????

[The BOWMAN]

I think you'll find they havent...

Straight off their website:

To provide downside protection against any substantial fall in oil prices, PPP hedged by way of put options approximately 719,000 barrels of oil being 50% of the first three years budgeted production and 22% of its total share of reserves. This hedging ensures that Pan Pacific will receive a minimum price of USD$50 per barrel for up to 719,000 barrels even if the oil price drops below that level on the relevant dates. The Company partly offset the cost of these put options by selling call options which may require the Company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil (approximately 8% of expected production in 2007/2008) at USD$92.00 if the price of oil rises above that price.

[The BOWMAN]

????? another one who doesn't understand the issue of hedging - how many more ?????

What part of hedging do you not understand??????????????????????????????? There is always a cost involved when you are hedging. The Company partly offset the cost of these put options by selling call options which may require the Company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil (approximately 8% of expected production in 2007/2008) at USD$92.00 if the price of oil rises above that price.

8% of the production has to be sold at $92 only and that is just part of the cost, The money spent on hedging half of your production at $50 is a complete waste if you ask me.

[upside_umop]

What part of hedging do you not understand??????????????????????????????? There is always a cost involved when you are hedging. The Company partly offset the cost of these put options by selling call options which may require the Company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil (approximately 8% of expected production in 2007/2008) at USD$92.00 if the price of oil rises above that price.

8% of the production has to be sold at $92 only and that is just part of the cost, The money spent on hedging half of your production at $50 is a complete waste if you ask me.

You said most of production...i think its neglible and definately not holding back the SP. We will see with the quarterly, and thanks to DIGGER the quarterly will show the current obligations of the calls. I would assume the options will be evenly distributed over the 3 years. First 6 months expired..second 6 months average price of around 110? Not a big deal in the scheme of things...

Options per month 187600/36 = ~ 5200 barrels. So about 173 barrels a day in a 30 day month. Is this most of their current 4200 barrels of oil share? I dont think so, depends what your definition is of most...also considering PPP would not be here in this current situation without the bankers agreements. I suppose they could have raised more cash to pay for the PUTS but it seems most were sick of the capital raisings. Also, at the time, shareholders would have agreed and thought "$92 oil...never...this is the easiest money we have ever made!.." and would be smiling anyway if it hit that price.

[upside_umop]

Cheers R.Sole, will be interesting to analyze. If people want to view it easier, copy and do a 'paste special' in excel by right clicking a cell. Then select 'unicode' and the list will appear much more freindly ;)

[Mingeathinaikos]

Where is 'DIGGER NOMINEES'? :)

[manxman]

Where is 'DIGGER NOMINEES'? :)

Right there on the list. Even the spelling is right.

[Xerof]

Our particularly obnoxious newcomer (or pheonix arisen as has been speculated), Mr A R Sole has been kind enough to give us a shareholder list, sourced from IRESS.

The only people I know of who use, and can afford, IRESS are our dear friends at the Broking Houses. Its about 2 weeks old, which is as close as that report ever gets to realtime.

R., if I'm right, you should ask your compliance manager what the rules are about participating in forums, before Vince gives your URL to NZX Discipline, there's a good lad

[Dr_Who]

Our particularly obnoxious newcomer (or pheonix arisen as has been speculated), Mr A R Sole has been kind enough to give us a shareholder list, sourced from IRESS.

The only people I know of who use, and can afford, IRESS are our dear friends at the Broking Houses. Its about 2 weeks old, which is as close as that report ever gets to realtime.

R., if I'm right, you should ask your compliance manager what the rules are about participating in forums, before Vince gives your URL to NZX Discipline, there's a good lad

You can get top 40 shareholders list from any broker. My broker email me sh lists on request. Obviously you have to be a good client to get things on requests. ;)

[Xerof]

Innaresting....

I retract my third paragraph and apologise to rsole for implying he would have such an association within that particular fraternity

[zorba]

R.Sole = NZOGSUX = Balance = Sniper = TROLL = should be banned

.

Troll = internet Yabo

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ee/Internet_Troll_velu_ill_artlibre_jnl.jpg/230px-Internet_Troll_velu_ill_artlibre_jnl.jpg

(wikipedia)

.

A Yabo: "unrefined, coarse, childish, puffed-up, arrogant, loud, superficial, vulgar, snobbish, boorish, mean spirited, jeolous, mendacious ........ "

.

[Bilo]

If people want to view it easier, copy and do a 'paste special' in excel by right clicking a cell. Then select 'unicode' and the list will appear much more friendly ;)

Thanks UD, it worked perfectly, this Vista isn't so bad after all. I have learnt my new thing for today:)

[Chalice]

Correct! Depending on what type/volume of business you put through your Broker they normally will. My Broker fires through lists, either top 50/80 holders to keep an eye on when they are updated. Helps with making informed decisions when you are aware what others are also doing.

Since I made the nice gesture of doing this for other who are not in the position to obtain the list without paying, I then get called a Broker and the other insult from Zorba I will not bother posting any more lists for others to enjoy and be informed from.

I suppose being called a broker is more polite than being called an anchor with a silent "w".

[Dr_Who]

Anyone know the currently cash holding for NZO?

[AMR]

You comments appriciated. I rather like my name too.

There still will be some coming issues with Momo to resolve in the coming months which have not been bought up yet.

Stocks I have held this year you ask. Well since you asked in a nice way, I'll disclose to you that I do actually hold NZO. That might come as a surprise to many on here. Not a short term holder either btw. Held and not touched for over 24 months I might add.

And since your the first person to say something nice on here, my next post will be a very informative one that all can gather good information off and can be a discussion point each coupel of weeks when I re-post.

I guess this begs the question. If you do hold NZO and are so bearish about it, then why keep holding?

[sideline]

What part of hedging do you not understand??????????????????????????????? There is always a cost involved when you are hedging. The Company partly offset the cost of these put options by selling call options which may require the Company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil (approximately 8% of expected production in 2007/2008) at USD$92.00 if the price of oil rises above that price.

8% of the production has to be sold at $92 only and that is just part of the cost, The money spent on hedging half of your production at $50 is a complete waste if you ask me.

(this really belongs on the PPP thread, but similar thoughts do apply to NZO)

Bowman ,

WTI crude only went over the threshold in November 2007, so the calls expiring before that (and they
will have been spread through the months to match some expected production figures so that
they could be considered 'covered' calls as opposed to 'naked' ones) will have expired
worthless. Even calls expiring up to Feb 08 would only have been worth a few dollars per barrel.

The question is whether there were any calls expiring after that, if so how many and when.
The company should disclose the details of this, so that we can form an opinion whether there
still exists any exposure. (Independently of this some of the puts almost certainly do still exist,
I think they were spread to 2010)

BTW, the company annual report dated 30 June 2007 lists on page 18 under the heading
'Derivative premium paid' an income of AU$ 54000.

[Nitaa]

Cheers R.Sole, will be interesting to analyze. If people want to view it easier, copy and do a 'paste special' in excel by right clicking a cell. Then select 'unicode' and the list will appear much more freindly ;)
Hi upside.. did i miss something or was the list put on but taken off? cheers

[Nitaa]

Something to think about. There are many posters here that give an impression about themselves but in real life are completely different. Some posters throw up curve balls, red flags, smokey mirrors and so on.

My advice, people have different motives to post on here but some are looking for their best interest only and not for the benefit of others. In short dont jump to too many conclusions when people make allegations without backing it up with factual information.

[duncan macgregor]

Hi upside.. did i miss something or was the list put on but taken off? cheers NITA, Why dont you ask some R SOLE to give you the list not that it will do you any good. You should know by now the traders are playing silly buggers with you shaking out the little borrow to convert investors. They will sell back to them later at a much higher price. You go by the volume. Companies, private trusts, family members names, who owns what is very easy to disguise if you are in to that sort of thing.
The share price will go sideways between $1-50 to $1-80 until NZO come out with its next new projects. They have to many hold forever and a day large investors for the sp to move to far in either direction up to when the market crashes, and one of them require cash. Macdunk

[zorba]

Hi upside.. did i miss something or was the list put on but taken off? cheers

Yesss, indeed what has happened to the posting by RRSHOLE of priviliged IRESS information on the holdings of the top 50 NZO investors ?

Clearly the post has been deleted ...... on the threat of legal action by IRESS ??

I'm have nothing against contrarian posts and for contributers to emphasize the risks in NZO investing ...... indeed it forms an important part of estimating the whole risk/reward equation.

But to simply p.iss on a share with out a shred of analysis is the mark of a TROLL.

.

[Xerof]

Could be the work of the Invisible Hand at this esteemed establishment, but then that might be an allegation without any factual backup :cool::cool:

[Nitaa]

I with you Zorba. In fact i encourage all views. What is dissapointing is where you have clowns that bring up all sorts of allegations without backing it up with facts. I am more concerned about the new investors who look at these threads for insightful information.

I have no problem in people speculating about what may or may not happen as people can digest the information themselves. But this is significantly different than the likes of Sniper and co that were trying to scare off investors probably for their own gain.

Bring on the good the bad and the ugly i say.

A correction is long overdue and we may be seeing it now. Just my speculation of course

[Chalice]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;214366]

The share price will go sideways between $1-50 to $1-80 until NZO come out with its next new projects.

Macdunk, can you please expand on your view above?

What do you define as a new project?
Given the relative proximity of info/announcements to come from NZO I'm interested in what Macdunk thinks the calalysts + their relative weight are (beyond sharemarket & oil price considerations):

a) maintain/get SP up to $1.80 (maintain the 1.50-1.80)
b) get SP to break $1.80

- the aquisition of a producing company
- aquisition of new permits with potential to drill after seismic assessment (NZ +OS)
- actually drilling those new targets
- drilling previously identifies targets
- a reserves upgrade of Tui &/or Kupe,
- confirmation that the Momoho structural trend is commercial

Obviously your view of the timeframe impacts of the above senarios would be appreciated as well - i.e. will drill for an overseas elephant in 2014.
Thanks!

PS - NITA not a new investor (held since '98) looking at this threads for insightful information, just rate MacD's posts!

[digger]

Unbelievable. Picked up my son at airport today.He lives in Hong Kong and is married to Chinese lady but often goes to china.Said he had read my comments on China buying heavily in the first 6 months of this year and now agrees will pull out until after the games.Remember this also includes the handicap games so about two months are needed.The rebuying in big volumn can start with about two weeks to go as it will take some time to feed through. Hey this is the first anyone else has agreed with this theory and from the most unlikely source as son usually does not agree with me until after i am proved right.
Also say China where he goes is shutting down.No construction and all crains have to be lowered to prove not in use.Also note that olympics start on 8--08--2008. Number 4 is very bad to chinese but you guessed it 8 is lucky.
Oil will fall to 120.See you end of september if not a bit sooner on this call.

[Bixbite]

Poor "co" - a silent scapegoat


.

[Nitaa]

Poor "co" - a silent scapegoat


.
Yes well "co" has to take the blame somewhere and it wont be the last. lol

[friedegg]

i wish the nz index could go down agian so nzo can have a good day

[digger]

Anyone know the currently cash holding for NZO?

Hold on shortly after next friday the quartely will be out and then you will know till end of june and will be able to approx guess till end of july.

[fish]

Hold on shortly after next friday the quartely will be out and then you will know till end of june and will be able to approx guess till end of july.

Last quarterly was released on Tuesday 29th April . All I know is that we are due for the next quarterly to be released in July -and there are not many days left !

I have high expectations for this report -
will it show close to a million dollars a day gross income ?
What will the net profit be ?
Will there be an interim or special dividend announced ?

Would be good to know exactly when it will be released

[tim23]

Won;t it be the full f/y if its the 4th quarterly?

[Vince]

Hi Guys, Girls and McDunk,

Over the past two days I have received no-less than 50+ complaints due to this Thread, - some have been valid, and some have been just bloody ridiculous!

You will have noticed that a few Members have either taken a short "Weeks Holiday" or a "Permanent Vacation". Personally I'm quite sick of Members who think they can launch abuse at others because they have conflicting belief's to them.

Some new Members who join might generally have a difference of opinion to others, - and if they air those personal views, they can expect a barrage of abuse, childish name calling, and a raft of other insults. Thankfully, this is only carried out by a very small percentage of members who contribute on this Thread.

To all the other Members who contribute with informative information, - I thank you for not stooping to this level of the minority!.

New members that are just out to cause trouble from their first post are normally kicked out pretty quickly. "Borderline" new Members have to be given the benefit of doubt until it becomes apparent they are just on here to piss everyone off.

From now on I will not tolerate any more of this, No more warnings, just "Permanent Holidays" for members who step over the mark.- and I think I speak for all our decent Members who prefer to have a Decent Forum compared to being lowered to some pathetic name calling Forum.

I have included a couple of the complaints I received below.
Please read and be the Judge yourself of what I have to put up with trying to keep everyone happy so you can continue to enjoy the Free ShareTrader Forum 99% of you, have always enjoyed.

Regards,

Vince

Complaints:



Vince you have to ban r.sole off the nzo thread as he is downramping and making everyone sell their shares. The shares of nzo have droping 3% because of him. This is very urgent as everyone is loosing money.



Vince the shareprice has dropped even more because of r.sole you have to ban him for his blatant downramping



You need to know R.Sole has stolen an IRESS feed of the shareholder list from his employer. Its been posted on the Nog thread. I would advise you to call the Poilce on him straight away.



Hi Vince. R.SOLE is being a total arsehole. He is scaring all the young members into selling so he can pick up cheap shares. Please dont let it happen Vince because the shares will be worth $5 at Christmas time and we don’t want the young members to miss out. Thanks

[bermuda]

Hi Vince,
Very well put and worded.

Hope everyone reads it.

[zorba]

Vince, good post.

Bermuda, I agree with you.

Zorba's personal resolution: tone down some of his more extravagant posts !!!!

Z

[Xerof]

Good God Vince, are those 'complaints' for real?

Anyway, good work - I personally have no objection to dissident views, and particularly enjoy the good humoured banter that we often see. The recent 'new entrant' however was a prime example of someone out to disrupt the dynamics of the 'sharetrader village'

[Xerof]

Another reason why cash cow companies such as NZO, PPP and PRC will be excellent ports in a storm........this development is going to cause a lot of the (bank) debt laden entities a few headaches

From Business Spectator this morning:

Businesses are in for a shock when some of the new Basel II international banking rules start to apply on October 1.

Debt funding has already tripled in price and in many cases is simply not available, as banks themselves find their own funding dry up.

But from October 1 there will be a specific and dramatic change to the way lines of credit are arranged and charged. In effect, the old line of credit that is fully available to a chief financial officer will simply no longer exist – it will be too expensive.

Companies routinely arrange lines of credit “just in case”. All documentation is completed and the loan is fully approved, but remains undrawn until the CFO needs it, either for working capital, because of a dip in sales, or an investment opportunity.

Many companies see this as a corporate governance requirement: the board reviews credit lines on a monthly basis to ensure the business has enough liquidity “headroom” to meet contingencies.

A small ongoing fee is typically paid to keep the line of credit available, on top of the setup fee, but the meter does not start running on servicing the loan until it is drawn.

The new Basel II accords drawn up by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision change the way banks allocate capital for risk.

In the case of lines of credit, the new rules demand that a bank allocate capital to them as if they are fully drawn down from the moment the approvals have been completed.

The effect of this is that borrowers will have to pay full interest on undrawn lines of credit, even though they don’t actually have the money.

There will be ways around the rules that will differ a bit for each bank. Typically this will involve completing the documentation and most of the approval process for the loan, up to, but not including final sign-off.

Essentially, as long as the bank gets to say “no” at the point of drawing down the line of credit, then the money can continue to be priced in the old way.

The problem for boards is deciding whether this still complies with their corporate governance requirements. Most small businesses would be fairly comfortable with having to go back to the bank for approval when looking to draw down a line of credit, but does that qualify as liquidity “headroom”, especially in difficult times when the answer might well suddenly be no?

It will be a cost versus comfort equation. Just a guess, but I’d say most, if not all, companies will go for the lower cost, and lines of credit as they currently exist will disappear.

It will be just another way in which the credit crunch, coupled with Basel II, is making business harder.

[trackers]

Some of the comments on NZO thread lately have been atrocious... Noone minds if someone posts some negative sentiment about NZO, but back it up with at least a sentence or two of fact or actual thought-provoked opinion.

If you're going to just post to take the piss out of someone or stir up people for the hell of it, there's other forums around more appropriate.

Vince, I feel sorry for you having to deal with ridiculous comments like the ones you've linked.... Some people are pretty out of touch with reality it seems. I've always been fond of NZO, but admit that it attracts 'interesting' types of investors sometimes....

In other news, TAPIS down again today

[fish]

i,m still shaking my head at some of the complaints you posted above on thread) but those of u who believe that those comments influence the share price have major IQ problems our positive or negative views are just that-- i,m glad u have banned a couple of participants---- but fellow posters take stock of yourself- -- the wide world out there is a greater influence on co SP than you or i posts ( dunks neg posts is a ex ample its his honest views). but a few othiers needed a shake up;; ps the reason NOG SP has been in a down trend is the same reason it injoyed such a upward trend= market sector sentiment=

This had me shaking my head this morning .
It is so rich coming from malcolm who has recently bought into nzo whilst trying to dampen the price.

[CAM]

hahahahaha...... have to laugh at those complaints.
If anyone buys and sells shares based solely on comments on message boards then the old adage of a fool and their money applys.....they were lucky to get together in the first place!!

I like alternative views if they are backed up by some form of reason.
I don't agree with name calling.....but sticks and stones...

anyway...back to the sandpit

[Dr_Who]

hahahahaha...... have to laugh at those complaints.


ROFL... I cracked up when I saw the complaint posts also. What a laugh.

The difference between a man and a boy is the price of his toys.. :D

[foolme]

Hi could you put more on here so that we can all have a good laugh.They must be having you on.The pro's have been working on this share like they do with all markets,just look how they play with the depth,this makes this a good share to me that we have this kind of interest.Well what would i know .

[Toddy]

Testing, testing, testing.

If this ramping/down ramping theory works on this thread as described above, then we should see an upward movement in the SP after my post.


BUY NZO, I have not seen such a magnificant opportunity on the NZX for years. And as a bonus its a natural hedge against the petrol price at the pump when you full up your car.


I'll check the SP at the end of the day and report back.

[Crypto Crude]

Bullet proof Vest alert...
Dow Down 280 points overnight... heavy fall....
NZO Ripping it up...
good to be in oil stocks...
:cool:
.^sc

[Chris Roberts]

Last quarterly was released on Tuesday 29th April . All I know is that we are due for the next quarterly to be released in July -and there are not many days left !

I have high expectations for this report -
will it show close to a million dollars a day gross income ?
What will the net profit be ?
Will there be an interim or special dividend announced ?

Would be good to know exactly when it will be released

The planned timetable for NZOG announcements is:
31 July Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cash Flows Report
30 August Preliminary Results Announcement to the Market
Late September Annual Report and Shareholder Review released
29 October AGM in Wellington
30 October Investor briefings in Auckland and Christchurch

[da puntzda]

substantial unfulfilled buying support North of $1.50, be interesting to see if there orders are fulfilled today.

[sideline]

[Chris,
since there has been a bit of scaremongering about the effects of hedging on this thread,
could the quarterly report please state what the situation on 30 June 08 was?
We all know that the puts for downside protection are spread out till 2010,
but we don't know if any of the calls are still unexpired. A clarifying statement
about the status and strike prices & expiry dates of unexpired calls (if any) would be much
appreciated.
Thanks

[Corporate]

Chris I second this.


On a seperate note. It definitely looks like someone is playings around with the share price. Good to see buying depth increasing.

[Chris Roberts]

NZOG has always been happy to respond to queries about hedging. As we have stated in the past, the only hedging we have in place for Tui Oil is no cost collars (puts and calls) that were required as part of financing arrangements. Most of this hedging has now expired. There remains around 80,000 barrels with calls that come due at different times over the next 2 years or so, some at US$86 and some at US$101. The puts are at $US50.

[Corporate]

Thanks Chris,

How many of the calls expired during the year and has NZO been required to meet any calls during the 07/08 financial year? If so how many barrels and at what price?

By "come due" do you mean expire?

[boxburger]

Hello Noggers,
Watching the recent depth, volume and price movements I too feel that more has been going on than one separate party selling shares and a different one buying them. Nothing I can put my finger directly on, just a feeling that I'm watching manipulation at play.

I can imagine there have been a few "What are we going to do with the money we've yanked out of the falling markets?" meetings going on in boardrooms around NZ. Capital looking for a job. The idea of a 'Stop Loss Raid' sounds both intriguing and plausible to me.

I was initially frustrated to imagine such goings on, going on. It seems under-handed.

Then I read a post back a bit that suggested I consider being grateful for the attention. If the stock is being 'played' with, I believe it is a play that after a period will have to be run down by momentum, whether that be up or down. I own NZO, I'm betting up.

It is better to be the pretty girl at the dance getting annoyed by the lusty wolves than the wallflower.

[Mick100]

Hello Noggers,
Watching the recent depth, volume and price movements I too feel that more has been going on than one separate party selling shares and a different one buying them. Nothing I can put my finger directly on, just a feeling that I'm watching manipulation at play.

.

You guys with your manipulation theories have got no idea
NZO's share price went up with the price of oil and now it's going down with the price of oil - nothing strange about that

If you want to see manipulation have a look at the north american markets and take note of what some of the hedge funds are doing to the junior miners
through naked short selling - they are destroying companies - their shareprices have been beaten down so low that these companies can't raise funds through either debt or equity issues anymore - that's what I call manipulation
.

[sideline]

Thanks Chris

[boxburger]

Hi Mick,
I'm disappointed that you have chosen to open your response to my 13th post in several years with an insult. It makes me feel as welcome as a turd in the punchbowl.

I will have a look at the small US miners you speak of and see if I can ascertain for myself whats going on there, thanks.

Yes Malcolm, you're right, my research is incomplete. It always seems to be that way. Have you finished yours?

[Dr_Who]

You guys with your manipulation theories have got no idea
NZO's share price went up with the price of oil and now it's going down with the price of oil - nothing strange about that

If you want to see manipulation have a look at the north american markets and take note of what some of the hedge funds are doing to the junior miners
through naked short selling - they are destroying companies - their shareprices have been beaten down so low that these companies can't raise funds through either debt or equity issues anymore - that's what I call manipulation
.

You just have to look over at the Aussie junior oilers to see the manipulation. Very sad indeed.

[STRAT]

Vince you have to ban r.sole off the nzo thread as he is downramping and making everyone sell their shares. The shares of nzo have droping 3% because of him. This is very urgent as everyone is loosing money.

Quote:
Vince the shareprice has dropped even more because of r.sole you have to ban him for his blatant downramping
Quote:
You need to know R.Sole has stolen an IRESS feed of the shareholder list from his employer. Its been posted on the Nog thread. I would advise you to call the Poilce on him straight away.
Quote:
Hi Vince. R.SOLE is being a total arsehole. He is scaring all the young members into selling so he can pick up cheap shares. Please dont let it happen Vince because the shares will be worth $5 at Christmas time and we don’t want the young members to miss out. Thanks


ROTFLMFAO

Cheers Vince,
That made my night
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

The first is my fav. I would like to see R.Soles 3% inpact on the SP charted:p


Anyone who seriously thinks this thread has an impact on the share price of NZO should seriously consider leaving their hard earned cash in their wallet.

[digger]

ROTFLMFAO

Cheers Vince,
That made my night
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

The first is my fav. I would like to see R.Soles 3% inpact on the SP charted:p


Anyone who seriously thinks this thread has an impact on the share price of NZO should seriously consider leaving their hard earned cash in their wallet.

STRAT,what you are saying is one of thoses things that fence sitters like as it is both true and at the same time profoundly untrue.It comes across as true as we should never see ourself as the centre from which all things happen,so it sounds good to say we have no effect as it does appeal to our cultural desire to not get too swell a head. It is profoundly untrue because of the butterfly effect,of which i am sure you are well aware of.
You should particularly note that this consistent down ramper only phologically appaers when the SP has already in some downturn.At such a point any share of any company can come under a psychological pressure point that is easily influenced by non info that at more normal time would be dismissed as rubbish.
So my take is that r-sole is one smart well clued up slimy chap that is well versed in the psychological kill,and did exercise the butterfly effect to some advantage.

[fish]

So my take is that r-sole is one smart well clued up slimy chap that is well versed in the psychological kill,and did exercise the butterfly effect to some advantage.[/QUOTE]

Couldnt agree more digger .

He had to be clued up or wouldnt have had that list of big shareholders .
There has been an unusually large amount of downrampers on this thread recently and I suspect with nzo about to be in the top 20 and the quarterly report due on thursday there are many left short in nzo and are trying any tactics they can to depress the sp .

I would strongly urge no one to sell nzo before the release of the quarterly report . We will then be able to see how well nzo is doing . Current Tui price is still well above sharebroker predictions , plus exchange rate is falling plus Tui is producing phenomenally .

[STRAT]

Hi Digger.
IMO if people are influenced by posting on a site such as this one and buy or sell because of it then its fair to say an impact has been made but......
Traffic to this site less people who dont read this thread, less people who lurk only, less people who are not influenced by new aggressive posters divided by the trade volume on NZO per week must surely be a number that looks a bit like 0.00000 something.
Add to that, that most people here in particular newbies spend a small cash value on their shares and that big money is not spent sourcing hot tips from share sites.

If I had some NZO and put em up too cheap would they sell? Sure but would they hold the price down? Only till the next trade.

What should be addressed IMO is not the s.holes of this world but rather the small number of people who are influenced by the likes of him. It took me a long time to figure out who the smart cookies on this site are. If anyone wants to be influenced by other posters and want to know who is clever and who is not its all in historical print. Look up the posts and check the charts.

Ive seen the impact/momentum produced on some penny stocks by flood posting and ramping on HC so I know this kind of activity does exist and does work to some degree but part of the game is to recognise this for what it is and the types of companies it works on. NZO isnt one of em IMO

PS For an assessment of my opinion you need look no further than the 08 ASX comp:D

[STRAT]

Couldnt agree more digger .

He had to be clued up or wouldnt have had that list of big shareholders .
There has been an unusually large amount of downrampers on this thread recently and I suspect with nzo about to be in the top 20 and the quarterly report due on thursday there are many left short in nzo and are trying any tactics they can to depress the sp .

I would strongly urge no one to sell nzo before the release of the quarterly report . We will then be able to see how well nzo is doing . Current Tui price is still well above sharebroker predictions , plus exchange rate is falling plus Tui is producing phenomenally .
Hi Fish. To get a list of the top 20 all he needs is a broker or a mate with a broker or access to the internet in some cases. My previous post was not aimed at anyone and no offence was intended. With all due respect urging people not to sell is the same as urging them to sell.
Anyone making a decision to do either based on what is written here alone needs a slap but I suspect some start out this way and its part of the education process for them.

[fish]

Hi Fish. To get a list of the top 20 all he needs is a broker or a mate with a broker or access to the internet in some cases. My previous post was not aimed at anyone and no offence was intended. With all due respect urging people not to sell is the same as urging them to sell.
Anyone making a decision to do either based on what is written here alone needs a slap but I suspect some start out this way and its part of the education process for them.

hi strat
1) You cant have seen the posting-its been deleted now-I only skimmed it but saw my nominee company and no. of shares and unique private identification code . I am considering taking this up with the nzx . This was also not just the top 20 but maybe a 100 .I understand its not publically available and indicates someone with serious intent to breach rules .
2) I was urging people not to sell until they see the quarterly report (on thursday )for the reasons stated and it is very different to someone trying to spread fear for the purposes of buying cheaply as we have recently seen .
3)It is my conviction -supported by numerous valuations from others on this site and numerous sharebrokers that this share is seriously undervalued-I believe the quarterly report on thursday should confirm it and lead to it being uprated .
I would love it if all small shareholders held firm until this report forcing some of the bigger underweight institutions to pay a higher price .

[digger]

hi strat
1) You cant have seen the posting-its been deleted now-I only skimmed it but saw my nominee company and no. of shares and unique private identification code . I am considering taking this up with the nzx . This was also not just the top 20 but maybe a 100 .I understand its not publically available and indicates someone with serious intent to breach rules .
2) I was urging people not to sell until they see the quarterly report (on thursday )for the reasons stated and it is very different to someone trying to spread fear for the purposes of buying cheaply as we have recently seen .

STRAT ,Fish is making a strong point i have made before with less inpact.If any poster comes clean and is upfront saying either sell or not sell we all then know where that poster is coming from.This is far different from taking a hidden position with insinuating something is very wrong with the company to spread fear in the weak in the hope of bettering ones own position.Innuendos,unsported by facts, are best left with our hororable members of paraliment,where at least we all know that a for planned position is taken.

[tim23]

Do I assume that R.Sole has been sin binned by the site Administrator?

[zacman]

More than sin binned .. I suspect red carded. Its a pity. I did not agree with his views but it is important to have a contary view sometimes expressed. Some of his points highlighted the need not to become over infactuated with a share.

His problem was that he expressed his views in such a derogatory way. Such language is expressed on other threads and in particular the political ones. Some contributors can only refer to the PM in most derogatory, usually sexist, terms. I think that their contribution is less helpful than was that of RSole.

He did not cause a drop in the shareprice. All he did was raise some heat.

zacman

[fish]

oil down to $126P/B NYMEX 3AM kiwi time anothier us$4 drop= good for long term health of world economics theirfor world growth wiil continue to expand----- oil demand will zoom oil price will increase slowly again---- ps back in bought asx tue

Malcolm -I hope there is a very special place reserved for vermin who encourage people to sell their nzo whilst buying in themselves . Dyslexia is not an excuse

[fish]

SP.
But for the very short run i believe an attempt will be made to scare out the margin holders and force the price down further.This play has happen a few time before with NZO that is why i decided to not margin trade.
Cheers all

you have been dead set right margin calls will scare the sh-t---and there storys will get further confused[/QUOTE]

Malcolm -this is you trying to talk down the price the day before you started buying back into nzo on Tuesday

[tim23]

MalcolM - ARE yoU and BricKS the SAMe perSon?

[Crypto Crude]

Fish and others,
Malcolms games can clearly be seen on other threads aswell... On page 9 of the CUE thread he stated that he was going to be buying CUE sub 20c... he then went on a rampaging ramp (downwards) to try and satisfy his motives....
I still dont believe it...
Posters cannot (usually) manipulate a SP....
I dont believe that 'ahhh soul', or Malcom, or bob or anyone could cause a 3% selloff on NZO when you take into account the trading volumes...
maybe on a stock which is totally illiquid, and even then no... not on NZO, its too big...
If I could ramp stocks then CUE would be 25cents by now...
:cool:
.^sc

[fish]

Fish and others,
Malcolms games can clearly be seen on other threads aswell... On page 9 of the CUE thread he stated that he was going to be buying CUE sub 20c... he then went on a rampaging ramp (downwards) to try and satisfy his motives....
I still dont believe it...
Posters cannot (usually) manipulate a SP....
I dont believe that 'ahhh soul', or Malcom, or bob or anyone could cause a 3% selloff on NZO when you take into account the trading volumes...
maybe on a stock which is totally illiquid, and even then no... not on NZO, its too big...
If I could ramp stocks then CUE would be 25cents by now...
:cool:
.^sc
SC
Not everybody thinks rationally like you all the time . If you have a number of nervous investors and a number of downrampers post that the sp is going to drop they can start a stampede-this will last until the brave start buying again-then greed may take over and a sp rises too far
Whether you believe this or not we could debate forever . What I hate is the deception used to try and trick people out of their money . We get this everywhere-whether its hawkins from equiticorp,Collins from Brierley , Marshall from Access Brokerage and Don Fletcher from TTP-all of which I have been personally affected-to those 20 odd failed finance companies -none of which have affected me personally but I feel for those that have .

[tim23]

Malcolm - I think NOG is past the high spec stage now?

[fish]

Malcolm - I think NOG is past the high spec stage now?

Tim
Malcolm is beyond education he is incapable of learning and will continue posting thus revealing his true self
eg
nievePeople who spell this French-derived word “nieve” make themselves look naive. In French there is also a masculine form: “naif”; and both words can be nouns ...
www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/nieve.html - 2k - Cached - Similar pages

[corporateraider]

Depending on the size of the market for the share it is definitely possible for a private investor to move a share price. I well remember when I was buying options at the time of the tui run to production, and an order of as little as 100,000 significantly moved the market.

I still suspect that with the number of readers of this site that prolonged posting- positive or adverse may effect the market. There is still a huge amount of gearing and borrowed money in this share (I am but one example) and nervousness may cause people to jump. Too many jumping together and the market moves.

[Rabbi]

Anyone who geared up needs their head read.

With crude oil going down by the day you could get big egg on your face.

Lets hope the crude oil price goes up next week....

....otherwise......margin calls:mad:

[Redfox]

This will be my opening post on here. I’m not a newbee either having been an element of this establishment for 3 years, and a very regular reader, that is when time permits me.

Making it clear from my first post. I HOLD, NOT A SMALL HOLDER, HAVE HELD FOR A LONG TIME, NO INTENTION OF SELLING YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now that I’ve got that cleared up, I will carry on. Lately I don’t think I’ve read so much crap on here. Just utter dam rubbish frankly!! A few of you are just completely delusional & so misinformed it astonishing!!
It’s a total embarrassment to even think you own the same shares which I do.

I enjoy reading the informed populace here, excluding the HOPERS & NO HOPERS whom I feel like punching their faces through my computer monitor!!

Personally I see the Oil price dropping off from now on.
The result being a drop in the stock!!
That’s my view anyway.
Not a very nice script for my maiden post, but I don’t care, it’s my view of the matter and is more honest than the lightweights who frequent here.

[fish]

Welcome Redfox .
Your view on the price of oil dropping is shared by all the brokers I have read .

For instance the HHG report has different valuations on NZO based on different TAPIS prices . At an average TAPIS price of $118 they have a valuation of $2.60 on nzo and if the price falls to an average of $104.99 the valuation falls significantly to $2.18 .As you know Tapis has been up to $150 and currently is $136 . Additionally the exchange rate has fallen to 0.74 US

What I really like about NZO is the way they are achieving far greater profits than any broker has dared to predict-as I hope will be seen in Thursdays financials .

Between now and thursday I predict many downrampers keen to boost their holdings will post negative comments

[digger]

Anyone who geared up needs their head read.

With crude oil going down by the day you could get big egg on your face.

Lets hope the crude oil price goes up next week....

....otherwise......margin calls:mad:

Just talking this over with some people as to how this cookey will crumble.There are strong forces pushing crude in different direction just now.The upward force is gathering PO awarness,Iran and the ever ongoing world belief in perpetual growth,downward forces are the beginnings of conservation brought high prices and the unwinding of options positions formally taken and in the very short term the China factor where they will largely withdraw from the buying market till after the games.Alternative energy is also a downward force but is years away from having any effect.
My point here is that do not factor in the current direction as if the tides has turned and and oil prices will return to the long run average.I say it will fall to 120 as often stated before but would be very suprise if it goes to 115.The upside is considerable with this unsettled situation with Iran.

[tim23]

Now that I’ve got that cleared up, I will carry on. Lately I don’t think I’ve read so much crap on here. Just utter dam rubbish frankly!! A few of you are just completely delusional & so misinformed it astonishing!!
It’s a total embarrassment to even think you own the same shares which I do.

I enjoy reading the informed populace here, excluding the HOPERS & NO HOPERS whom I feel like punching their faces through my computer monitor!!

Personally I see the Oil price dropping off from now on.
The result being a drop in the stock!!
That’s my view anyway.
Not a very nice script for my maiden post, but I don’t care, it’s my view of the matter and is more honest than the lightweights who frequent here

Some people might think your 1st post is rubbish too?!

[pietrade]

This will be my opening post on here...........I feel like punching their faces through my computer monitor!! ..................blah blah blah.........
Not a very nice script for my maiden post, .........................

IF THAT'S THE BEST YOU CAN DO, STOP BOTHERING.

This is the sort of stuff I'm talking about!

[Casa del Energia]

[QUOTE=Toddy;214642]Testing, testing, testing.

If this ramping/down ramping theory works ,,,QUOTE]

Toddy et al, you may well have a point – talking up/down a market appears to be the long and short of it - - there’s a paper out that essentially says there is no correlation between events and sp – it’s all down to share chat sites like this!!

Visit

www.arxiv.org.abs/0803.1769

To quote the absract:

“In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and amplitude of price jumps. We find that the volatility patterns around jumps and around news are quite different: jumps are followed by increased volatility, whereas news tend on average to be followed by lower volatility levels. The shape of the volatility relaxation is also markedly different in the two cases. Finally, we provide direct evidence that large transaction volumes are_not_ responsible for large price jumps. We conjecture that most price jumps are induced by order flow fluctuations close to the point of vanishing liquidity.”

That being the case, I’ll join the chorus: “BUY NZO NOW, DON’T BE A FOOL AND WAIT FOR THEM TO REACH $10.”

(I’ll visit the NZX tomorrow with the full expectation of a 5c jump.)

[upside_umop]

IF THAT'S THE BEST YOU CAN DO, STOP BOTHERING.

A bit harsh...its just a balanced view of his opinion to some posters. There is a lot of ramping in this stock and not all of it 'balanced.'

Thanks for sharing your post redfox..may the other posts you make not take so long!

Some of those quotes Vince showed are crazy. I think I can pick out some of the posters..

Fish, interesting you say that 'What I really like about NZO is the way they are achieving far greater profits than any broker has dared to predict-as I hope will be seen in Thursdays financials...'

As the brokers use these calculations in their current valuations. They are predicting 40cps in asbsecurities..ie $160million.


I do still hold, and never offloaded any during Momoho like i was planning to. Does anyone know whether the rig will be optioned back to NZO after Maari? Does this give the JV enough time to work out feasability of another drill on the North of Momoho?

[upside_umop]

[QUOTE=Casa del Energia;215134]Visit

www.arxiv.org.abs/0803.1769

To quote the absract:

“In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and amplitude of price jumps. We find that the volatility patterns around jumps and around news are quite different: jumps are followed by increased volatility, whereas news tend on average to be followed by lower volatility levels. The shape of the volatility relaxation is also markedly different in the two cases. [b/]Finally, we provide direct evidence that large transaction volumes are_not_ responsible for large price jumps. We conjecture that most price jumps are induced by order flow fluctuations close to the point of vanishing liquidity.”[b]
QUOTE]

Seems rather contradictory/subjective to me. Sure, a stock may get dumped on high volume and have the opposite effect of a rising sp. But if a large order (buy/sell) is placed on the open market, causing high number of transactions with 'vanishing liquidity' then a sp will jump or fall..

I have read other studies wrt to EMH to say that price changes are random, because information is random..dont know why they are trying to quantify the frequency and movement of the jumps in that study? Ill have a full read later on....interesting stuff all the same.

[Vince]

Since a few of you still persist in ignoring what I stated the other night, I've got no other option than to send you on "Holiday" for a couple of days.

Next person who uses the word "Downramper" can expect a weeks "Vacation" also!

Vince:mad:

[Casa del Energia]

[QUOTE=upside_umop;215152 Seems rather contradictory/subjective to me. Sure, a stock may get dumped on high volume and have the opposite effect of a rising sp. But if a large order (buy/sell) is placed on the open market, causing high number of transactions with 'vanishing liquidity' then a sp will jump or fall..[/QUOTE]

I think the guts of what they are saying is that market news, world news, local news has no bearing on stock prices. They looked at news items and compared them to movments of the shares that the news items to which the shares are relevant. No correlation - - what does appear to make a particular share jump appears to be the sum of 'gossip' passing between people trading.

When I read about this - a light bulb went off in my head - as it were - because the NZO sp has done some pretty counter intuitive things over the last couple of months.

I've been an avid reader of the mulititude of NZO 'theories' posted on this site, many of them quite sound and well founded - - but this study appears to explain it particularly well (!).

(Or perhaps there is no causality with NZO sp and is all down to quantum fluctuations - - Hiesenburg: The more NZO shares you own - the less certain you are of making a profit (?).

[bermuda]

NZO is 50 cents undervalued Well, $1 actually.

[zorba]

.
Casa del Energia ..... like your post and connection with Heisenberg !!!

Having directly or indirectly owned NZOG shares for over 22 years, IMHO share price is driven, up or down, by:

1) major company events, such as drilling prospects and results, plus FIDs, DoC approval of Pike, seismic results (eg 3D over Ngataro indicated reserve of 3-5 mmbo, instead of 20 mmbo, result was collapse of share price from 115 to 45 cents back in the 1990s), plus more recently the start up in field production (eg Tui), as well as capital raising deadlines and aftermath, and quarterly and annual Reports.

2) Price of oil and coking coal

3) Market sentiment re NZOG as a company

4) Overall global and local market sentiment

Seems to me most of the TA turning points can be explained by 1) above, with additional influence from 2).

3) and 4) provided a more general influence affecting overal trends.

Regarding local market sentiment, for ages NZOG was ignored or denigrated by brokers, and the Sharetrader NZOG thread provided a very useful channel for investor information and sentiment formation.

Over the years NZOG thread on Sharetrader has been by far the most active -- by an order of magnetude the thread has the highest number of posts and views of posts as compared to any other thread or company discussed on Sharetrader.

For years NZOG share register was dispersed over thousands of individual shareholders with few big institutional parcels. Even today insto holdings are still relatively modest. And the buy-sell pressures have been largely energised by the decissions of inviduals holding relatively small parcels of shares.

Given the role of Sharetrader in providing individual NZOG shareholders with info and a forum for discussion, my gut feeling, and experience, is that between major company or market events, commentary on Sharetrader can affect shareholder sentiment and this can lead to up or down fluctuations and trends in the share price untill the next major event/announcement/report arrives.

Hence in my view the NZOG share price can be influenced and indeed manipulated by discussions and posts on this thread, at least until the next significant event occurs.

The attack on the company and the share price by Sniper / Balance / and others in the run up to the exercise of the OC options was one of the worst examples of negative manipulation of NZO's share price.

Of course, there is a place for negative views and posts, supported by reasonable argument and relevant info, regarding NZOG's prospects. Such posts are necessary in forming a view on risk/reward ratios etc.

Likewise positive posts should also be supported by info and reasonable argument.

It is the positive support of individual investors that has kept NZOG alive, and facilitated the various capital raising activities leading up to the present strong position of the company.

I am pleased to see that this thread is now being actively monitored with a view to screening out destructive posters who appear to hate the company and its shareholders, or who may be attempting significant manipulation of share holder sentiment.

Z

.

[bermuda]

Yes........ but back to the subject. NZO Brokers say $2.15 plus......at less than $100 a barrel.

[zorba]

.

Thanks Vincent .......

My first indirect holding in NZOG was through United Resources which if my memory serves me I purchased around about 1985/1986.

United Resources was heavily invested in both NZOG and Mineral Resources which developed the Martha Gold Mine. The latter company was filched off Tony Radford by GPG. They would have liked to do the same to NZOG but the attempt was blocked, thank goodness. From memory my first direct holdings in NZOG was around late 80's / early 90's.

Z

.

[Rabbi]

Having owned NZO since 2000 I have certainly been through the highs and lows of this company. I can recall that expensive drills like Hochstetter and Opito- which were dry holes- had and adverse effect on the SP, simply by draining cash reserves. NZO was continually going to the shareholders to top up cash and accordingly the value of the shares was diluted.

When NZO drillled the Kiwi prospect and came up dry the Sp was not impacted at all. The reason for this- in my opinion- was that by then, a lot of other coals were in the fire, namely Tui, Pike and Kupe and these projects had to be factored into the SP as by then they were fast becoming a reality.

Of late the price of crude oil has been falling steadily and NZO has come up dry at Momoho, so not surprisingly the SP has drifted off its recent highs. It should be pointed out that most Oilers have taken a battering oover the past few weeks. One only has to look at the price of beach petroleum, Australias' fourth ranked Oil and Gas stock, to understand how market sentiment can drive the price of a share. There is NO REASON BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS why the SP of Beach should be so low and most other Australian oilers are being similarly impacted.

I see no reason why the SP of NZO will not recover in the medium term, based on the continuing high cash flow from Tui, and other projects due to fire up in 2009. However world events,such as US tension with Iran,the price of crude, big falls on the Dow Jones, falls in US oil stocks, storms in the Gulf of mexico, will have to be taken into account, as these events will always have an effect on the SP of NZO

[Casa del Energia]

.
Casa del Energia ..... like your post and connection with Heisenberg !!! ....

...... may be attempting significant manipulation of share holder sentiment.

Z

.

Well put. On balance - you've probably described the history of NZO share price behaviour in a nut shell and it seems to be pretty close to the mark. Although I still wonder about some of the behaviour - - I still leave it open that it may well be that because NZO was/is held by a large number of individuals, the non correlation between sp and global news has a role to play here. (Although I suspect we could debate it for years and never get anywhere with it).

[dsurf]

I was ecstatic when oil crossed $100 a barrel - I am still ecstatic at $122. Go NZO, pile up that cash and make FPA, RAK, FPH look pathetic in comparison. Day of reckoning is coming fast & the full year results will astound the media & the news will be glowing & the SP will recover.

And everyone will be in a good mood again on this site......

[Corporate]

I was ecstatic when oil crossed $100 a barrel - I am still ecstatic at $122. Go NZO, pile up that cash and make FPA, RAK, FPH look pathetic in comparison. Day of reckoning is coming fast & the full year results will astound the media & the news will be glowing & the SP will recover.

And everyone will be in a good mood again on this site......

The quarterly should be a cracker! Can't wait to have a read. Especially since there should be something in there in relation to the hedging.

[Mr Tommy]

I was ecstatic when oil crossed $100 a barrel - I am still ecstatic at $122. Go NZO, pile up that cash and make FPA, RAK, FPH look pathetic in comparison. Day of reckoning is coming fast & the full year results will astound the media & the news will be glowing & the SP will recover.
And everyone will be in a good mood again on this site......


Yep I cant see any further downside at the moment. With 127 million options just converted at $1.50 this is about a third of the total shares, and its all cash sitting in the bank, along with the Tui $$$ pouring in.
Tui was given the go-ahead based at $40, so even at $122 we must be creaming it in, and the NZD is starting to slide, down from 81c US in april to 74.5c now.
Pike will be digging out coal next month, and Kupe is less than a year away now.

[JBmurc]

I was ecstatic when oil crossed $100 a barrel - I am still ecstatic at $122. Go NZO, pile up that cash and make FPA, RAK, FPH look pathetic in comparison. Day of reckoning is coming fast & the full year results will astound the media & the news will be glowing & the SP will recover.

And everyone will be in a good mood again on this site......

Yeah I agree 100% dsurf and thats why I'm buying more NZO cfd longs on the ASX at 118 the traders will jump back-in once the numbers come out ,to think NZO could well have 70c-80c in cash per share.....going forward as these energy prices NZO with the help of high interest rates are growing a massive war chest 250mill.....300mill NZO could just go out and buy TAP oil for 300mill odd

[Bob C]

NZO
28/07/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1221 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Cancellation of Treasury Stock

At a meeting held on Friday 25 July 2008, the Board of New Zealand Oil & Gas
Ltd resolved to cancel the shares the company held in itself as treasury
stock.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd held 5,864,515 shares as treasury stock. The shares
were non-voting and were not included in the issued capital figure for New
Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd quoted on the NZX and ASX.

The Board concluded there was no compelling reason to retain the treasury
stock and its cancellation served to simplify the capital structure of the
company.

The treasury stock was deemed to be cancelled immediately upon the making of
the resolution.

The number of ordinary shares quoted on the NZX and ASX for New Zealand Oil &
Gas Ltd remains at 383,789,859.

[Corporate]

It's a bit of a contradiction given the recent option conversion. But maybe NZO should get in there and start buying back shares. Especially at current prices.

Or even better, NZO buy PPP. Market cap of $140M. Probably $100M in the bank. Payback period on the other $40M would be within the year. DO IT!

[Nitaa]

It's a bit of a contradiction given the recent option conversion. But maybe NZO should get in there and start buying back shares. Especially at current prices.

Or even better, NZO buy PPP. Market cap of $140M. Probably $100M in the bank. Payback period on the other $40M would be within the year. DO IT!Buying PPP would be a flip flop since nzo sold there holding last year at about 26 cps to the PPP director. To then buy back the company at 40 plus cps would be crazy and would also raise suspicion. They would need to bid at least this amount for sharholders to consider selling. Buying of PPP is a dead duck. As another poster alluded to, possibly buy one of its subsidery companies.

Looks like the oil rig workers on tui will have another few days off coming up this week with another storm brewing (no pun intended).

Some data i am looking forward to this week

Revenue from Tui $200m + (year ending 08)
Option Conversion $192

Pike now worth $170m to NZO and with production around the corner

I have no idea what Kupe is worth but considering that $1b plus is being invested with guarenteed sales forecast revenue must be at least $4b to $5b over the life of Kupe.

discl. I am comfotable holding at present

[trackers]

It's a bit of a contradiction given the recent option conversion. But maybe NZO should get in there and start buying back shares. Especially at current prices.

Or even better, NZO buy PPP. Market cap of $140M. Probably $100M in the bank. Payback period on the other $40M would be within the year. DO IT!

A buyback would be terrible, spending investors money to cancel shares shows the wider community that NZO has nothing better to do with the funds...Not promising.

I've sold all of my NZO, reluctantly... And will re-enter when sentiment turns.

[JBmurc]

It's a bit of a contradiction given the recent option conversion. But maybe NZO should get in there and start buying back shares. Especially at current prices.

Or even better, NZO buy PPP. Market cap of $140M. Probably $100M in the bank. Payback period on the other $40M would be within the year. DO IT!

If I was in NZO managerment I'd be running the ruler over ---TAP---------asx
current market cap-219m should take it over for 300m which if NZO sell there PRC asset for a good price say 200m + there current cash in the bank =Tap + tap 85mill


TAP Established Asset base with:
 Developed Reserves - 6.5mmboe
 Additional contracted gas - 5.9mmboe
 Contingent resources - 26.7mmboe
 Strong financial position
 ~A$85 million cash, no debt
 ~A$50 million cash flow from operations

[Oiler]

If I was in NZO managerment I'd be running the ruler over ---TAP---------asx
current market cap-219m should take it over for 300m which if NZO sell there PRC asset for a good price say 200m + there current cash in the bank =Tap + tap 85mill


TAP Established Asset base with:
 Developed Reserves - 6.5mmboe
 Additional contracted gas - 5.9mmboe
 Contingent resources - 26.7mmboe
 Strong financial position
 ~A$85 million cash, no debt
 ~A$50 million cash flow from operations

JB... TAP is the BEST option I have heard on this thread yet. PPP to me would be a backwards move !!! PPP have lost there direction and have no forward plan etc.

TAP has a lot of potential and it is within NZO's reach.

Maybe NZO is already running the ruler over it ??? ;);)

Oiler

[upside_umop]

It's a bit of a contradiction given the recent option conversion. But maybe NZO should get in there and start buying back shares. Especially at current prices.

Or even better, NZO buy PPP. Market cap of $140M. Probably $100M in the bank. Payback period on the other $40M would be within the year. DO IT!

I wouldnt go so far to say that. NZO have held treasury stock from before the option conversion, so no contradiction there. I reckon a share buy back would be great..as long as they buy under $1.50 --> anti dilution courtesy of option holders :D

Dont know why you say it would be terrible trackers. Its a vote of confidence that the company would have assessed their options and decided they cant return the required rate the shareholders demand. If this is the case...a share buyback should definately be in order.

TAP does look interesting alright JBmurc, no doubt they have already run their ruler over them and will be assessing carefully.

[Anubis]

Has anyone noticed (1) how many posters have been "sent on holiday" and (2) how this last page has been the most consistently intelligent and civilised discussion on this thread for a long long while? Now there's a correlation!

I'm reading a lot of opinions in the financial media that the oil price is going to be under downward pressure again this week, however I find it hard to believe that it is going to continue downwards so fast as it did the last week or so. Looking at the ASX today, the money is moving back into energy and materials as the banks (deservedly!) take another hiding. The key to where the big money goes this week will be how the US markets react to the bailout of Freddie and Fannie by the federal govt. There may well be a move back to energy and materials in the global markets - we will see.

All in all I would expect that the worst we can expect with NZO in the next few days is that it will spend some time rebuilding a base around or just above $1.50 - before re-asserting its fundamental value. I can only see it going further down in the short term if there is a dramatic drop in the price of oil or world markets or both.

PS - I meant to thank Hoop earlier, for taking the time to post interesting and well considered posts about how TA can give perspective on market movements in times when emotion is prevailing over fundamentals. Unfortunately I think the posts got a bit lost in the deluge of rubbish that started happening around the same time!

[bermuda]

Has anyone noticed (1) how many posters have been "sent on holiday" and (2) how this last page has been the most consistently intelligent and civilised discussion on this thread for a long long while? Now there's a correlation!

I'm reading a lot of opinions in the financial media that the oil price is going to be under downward pressure again this week, however I find it hard to believe that it is going to continue downwards so fast as it did the last week or so. Looking at the ASX today, the money is moving back into energy and materials as the banks (deservedly!) take another hiding. The key to where the big money goes this week will be how the US markets react to the bailout of Freddie and Fannie by the federal govt. There may well be a move back to energy and materials in the global markets - we will see.

All in all I would expect that the worst we can expect with NZO in the next few days is that it will spend some time rebuilding a base around or just above $1.50 - before re-asserting its fundamental value. I can only see it going further down in the short term if there is a dramatic drop in the price of oil or world markets or both.

PS - I meant to thank Hoop earlier, for taking the time to post interesting and well considered posts about how TA can give perspective on market movements in times when emotion is prevailing over fundamentals. Unfortunately I think the posts got a bit lost in the deluge of rubbish that started happening around the same time!

Great post,
I would love to ring Matthew Simmons and ask him if he took into consideration the demand destruction curve. I dont think he did so we have a few more weeks up our sleeve.

[JBmurc]

JB... TAP is the BEST option I have heard on this thread yet. PPP to me would be a backwards move !!! PPP have lost there direction and have no forward plan etc.

TAP has a lot of potential and it is within NZO's reach.

Maybe NZO is already running the ruler over it ??? ;);)

Oiler

-Yeah thanks guys just looks such a good fit for NZO ,I just think shareholders like myself would rather their growing funds go towards more production, Reserves & permits an to me TAP would give pently of all three for a resonable amount.
-NZO could do it many ways ideally a full takeover maybe 50% in NZO shares with opts and 50% cash say 150mill leaving NZO with 150mill+ in cash to fully fund ongoing drilling
Sounds easy but I'm sure TAP holders would like more


worth checking out their site-like all there permits
http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/permit.asp

[bermuda]

-Yeah thanks guys just looks such a good fit for NZO ,I just think shareholders like myself would rather their growing funds go towards more production, Reserves & permits an to me TAP would give pently of all three for a resonable amount.
-NZO could do it many ways ideally a full takeover maybe 50% in NZO shares with opts and 50% cash say 150mill leaving NZO with 150mill+ in cash to fully fund ongoing drilling
Sounds easy but I'm sure TAP holders would like more


worth checking out their site-like all there permits
http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/permit.asp

JB,
I still see PPP as the play. It gives NZO 22.5 % of the Tui permit which is producing like no tomorrow. There are several good prospects around Tui and I do like Toke.
And PPP has a bit of other grunt as you are well aware.

And it would be so easy to do.

[JBmurc]

JB,
I still see PPP as the play. It gives NZO 22.5 % of the Tui permit which is producing like no tomorrow. There are several good prospects around Tui and I do like Toke.
And PPP has a bit of other grunt as you are well aware.

And it would be so easy to do.

It would be easy but IMHO TAP would be well worth the extra effort maybe PPP first then TAP :)

-With TAP NZO would have some seriously prime southern hemi tenaments & production
to me PPP is mostly about easy Cashflow,and TAP being the ingredient to push NZO into NZX&ASX major oiler/energy stock which will gain market att. Fund buying etc

[bermuda]

It would be easy but IMHO TAP would be well worth the extra effort maybe PPP first then TAP :)

-With TAP NZO would have some seriously prime southern hemi tenaments & production
to me PPP is mostly about easy Cashflow,and TAP being the ingredient to push NZO into NZX&ASX major oiler/energy stock which will gain market att. Fund buying etc

JB, I know what you mean but let's keep things simple. Too many companies go and get horribly confused. This is the strength of NZO in Taranaki. The addition of PPP maximizes it .

They have so much experience here. Stay where you know what's going on.

[zorba]

.

Bermuda, agree with you PPP first, then the world next.

There is so much overlap with PPP already it would make real sense.

And a friendly merger should bring value to all parties.

------------------------------------------------------------------


Price of oil -- where will it go tonight on the Nymex ??

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/98

Z

[bermuda]

.

Bermuda, agree with you PPP first, then the world next.

There is so much overlap with PPP already it would make real sense.

And a friendly merger should bring value to all parties.

------------------------------------------------------------------


Price of oil -- where will it go tonight on the Nymex ??

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/98

Z

The price of oil is trying to find its equilibrium. It is a fabulous contest between supply ( which is being hit by depletions) and Demand which is a variable ( and is now reducing due to pricing pressure )

Fascinating.

[JBmurc]

JB, I know what you mean but let's keep things simple. Too many companies go and get horribly confused. This is the strength of NZO in Taranaki. The addition of PPP maximizes it .

They have so much experience here. Stay where you know what's going on.

-Yeah certainly the safe option buyout PPP get more cash more of TUI stay in NZ where it's safe join the waiting list for a drill rig..........wait see what else is in Taranaki then after hopefully some decent discoverys move outside NZ by which time TAP,AWE etc could well be running the ruler over NZO if not sooner,hopefully NZO at this time has not been sold down on a string of dusters
Safe yes best use of current situation of TAP's low sp and NZO large cash balance time will tell .

[airedale]

Good idea JB, TAP reported after the market closed that they have a good report from the Simpson 10 well.
Some months ago a group of TAP shareholders were revving up the management with a view to mounting a takeover.

[the machine]

doubt if would be possible to buy tap oil without paying a huge premium for it as a lot of institutions hold [or have been caught holding]

many years ago we sold out of tap at about au$1.63 and bought nzo @ about 25c.

in between those years tap has gone nowhere really - sp still about the same after some costly drills in nz.

said it before and will say it again.

invest quite a few million in likes of awe & ppp would be very handy say $10m in each

revisit the investment in a year or 2.

maybe some of the other asx listed oilers as well, provided earning good money.

a few million santos shares before the cap is listed would be a powerfull statement.

otherwise nzo are boxing themselves into a corner where to invest the $ and in due course the ceo has to explain what the money is going to do.

M

[Rabbi]

otherwise nzo are boxing themselves into a corner where to invest the $ and in due course the ceo has to explain what the money is going to do.

Best to be very circumspect when buying into a Co.

Look at IFT's (and my) disastrous foray into APX at US$3.60 share in 2005, and you wouldn't say IFT was wet behind the ears when it came to investing in other CO's. ;)

[Nitaa]

A bit of speculation with what nzo will do with their money. IMO the simplist rule for nzo is, would the aquisition bring value to nzo?

[Drone]

First up day for oil in a while, gains in US markets should see tapis head back to $136ish USD or $183 NZD a barrel so maybe a gross of about $900,000/day for NZOG from tui.

Also, I like the look of the re-designed website, a lot more modern

www.nzog.net