NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[the machine]

digger, in essence would like nzo to make the calculation of what would be the deemed nz$ cash value if all $ converted back to nz$ [obviously leave whatever foreign currency where it is held]


M

[Nitaa]

Seems like an interesting meeting at the Contact AGM. I also think it was useful that the shareholders demanded a vote on the pay issue before any other matters were conducted. Perhaps the same can be done done with NZO

[digger]

Seems like an interesting meeting at the Contact AGM. I also think it was useful that the shareholders demanded a vote on the pay issue before any other matters were conducted. Perhaps the same can be done done with NZO

Hi Nita and other NZO shareholders,
I have just finished emailing Chris Roberts our Public Affairs Manager pointing out the importance of having the director elections and pay issues dealt with at the beginning of the meeting.The directors will be very keen to drag on about other matters for as long as possible and a bit longer to limit discussion on resolutions5,6,7 and 8.Man and woman do not live on bread alone and a quick end to the meeting on an offer to stuff yourself is a extremely expensive option. But it will be offered.
Also of importance is that i may need 5 shareholders if necessary to demand a poll if the CEO claimes the result of a poll is not as we see it.
More later
Digger

[brucey09]

go senor digger

[friedegg]

the opec president has said today that opec wants oil at $90(at least)to ensure further exploration carried out and says many companies are already shelving drilling exploration now,so really this crisis and the fear of reduced demand which has driven the price down so much will surely in the very near future bite the average consumer in the arse
i dont support a buyback but i do support a buy in another quality producer pretty quick smart while the chips are low

[Unicorn]

I am right behind you Digger.

Resolutions 6 and 8 have to be the stupidest thing to have come out of NZO since someone said Pike River would take 12 months and $70M to develop!

A quick reminder of what shareholders gave the board last year - a 40% increase in fees plus 150,000 shares to each non-executive director, and 250,000 shares to the CEO. That is much more generous that Contact had been of late, and now NZO directors want even more than Contact were asking for! Fortunately we do not have a majority shareholder like Contact, so we should have some chance of bringing sanity to proceedings.

Looks like it might be a good idea to bring a few snacks for sustenance during what could be a long meeting. And everyone should come dressed for the TV cameras - after the interest the Contact situation generated, I am sure they will be keen to expose an even worse case of corporate excess.

I am also considering voting against each of the directors standing for re-election. If their judgment on the remuneration issue is so poor, then I think their judgment in running a company must also come into question. They are obviously way out of touch with the real world.


From last years order of business ...
Resolution 4: That Directors' fees be increased by $85,000 to a maximum of
$295,000 being the combined total for all non-executive directors:
The resolution was carried on a show of hands as an ordinary resolution.

Resolution 5: That the Board be authorised to issue during the next 12 months
up to 150,000 partly paid shares in the Company to each of Messrs. Foley,
Meyer, Rawson and Scoffham, being non-executive directors, such issue to
occur as a result of the acceptance of an offer of such shares to those
persons in accordance with the terms of the Company's Employee Share
Ownership Plan:
The resolution was carried on a show of hands as an ordinary resolution.

Resolution 6: That the Board be authorised to issue during the next 12 months
up to 250,000 partly paid shares in the Company to the Company's executive
director and chief executive officer, Mr Salisbury, such issue to occur as a
result of the acceptance of an offer of such shares in accordance with
the terms of the Company's Employee Share Ownership Plan following a
determination (if any) by the Company's Remuneration Committee that such an
offer be made:
The resolution was carried on a show of hands as an ordinary resolution.

[bermuda]

Well said Unicorn,
Enough is enough. Why dont we link performance to the shareprice in the form of bonuses? Then we all have a common goal.

[shasta]

Well said Unicorn,
Enough is enough. Why dont we link performance to the shareprice in the form of bonuses? Then we all have a common goal.

If they are worth there reputations they should willingly align there interests to that of there shareholders...:confused:

Then see if they back themselves to add value?

[The BOWMAN]

I've lost my voting proxy card and I am not attending. How do I vote, anyone know?

[digger]

I've lost my voting proxy card and I am not attending. How do I vote, anyone know?


Email Chris.roberts@nzog.com and explain that you want your vote counted.Have to do it quickly as must be in by 27th.

[the machine]

NZOG targeting Taranaki, Canterbury: broker
(Thursday, 23 October 2008)


NEW Zealand Oil & Gas is likely to spend some of its sizeable “war chest” of about $NZ285 million ($A251 million) getting more involved in offshore Taranaki exploration, or even extending itself to offshore Canterbury, according to broker McDouall Stuart.
Full Story...

snipets ahead of agm - is this an intent to cloud the issues?

M

[digger]

NZOG targeting Taranaki, Canterbury: broker
(Thursday, 23 October 2008)


NEW Zealand Oil & Gas is likely to spend some of its sizeable “war chest” of about $NZ285 million ($A251 million) getting more involved in offshore Taranaki exploration, or even extending itself to offshore Canterbury, according to broker McDouall Stuart.
Full Story...

snipets ahead of agm - is this an intent to cloud the issues?



M

Sounds like RAY repeated. RAY was also given as a RAY of hope when nothing else was up
Lets stick to the main story,which is the grossly excessive greed of directors. If this gets ramed through useing ACC or something it end up at the governments desk and big news coverage.But first things first and bring on the AGM.

[arjay]

Just sent in my proxy. I voted against 6 and 8, and hope the majority also do. The Contact fiasco is useful in that it sends the corporate world the message that shareholders prefer to attract directors interested in the business before money. I'd like to see no cash paid out in directors fees. Instead, pay them the equivalent sum in shares-bought-on-market. They then have the option of selling immediately to realize what they would otherwise get in cash (and doing so would send a useful signal to other shareholders about the near-term prospects for the Co.), or work to increase shareholder value and then sell them to realize both their fees plus a nice bonus attached to the higher shareprice.

David Salisbury especially is not worthy of a fee increase just yet. NZO have made no discoveries since he took charge - in fact they've lost from their books two useful gas and oil prospects in north Taranaki. Current NZO wealth is due mainly to the past efforts of people like Eric Matthews who are now out of the loop.

[Bilo]

Just sent in my proxy. I voted against 6 and 8, and hope the majority also do. The Contact fiasco is useful in that it sends the corporate world the message that shareholders prefer to attract directors interested in the business before money. I'd like to see no cash paid out in directors fees. Instead, pay them the equivalent sum in shares-bought-on-market. They then have the option of selling immediately to realize what they would otherwise get in cash (and doing so would send a useful signal to other shareholders about the near-term prospects for the Co.), or work to increase shareholder value and then sell them to realize both their fees plus a nice bonus attached to the higher shareprice.

David Salisbury especially is not worthy of a fee increase just yet. NZO have made no discoveries since he took charge - in fact they've lost from their books two useful gas and oil prospects in north Taranaki. Current NZO wealth is due mainly to the past efforts of people like Eric Matthews who are now out of the loop.

Arjay, Eric has hardly been hitting home runs each time he steps up to the plate since he left to AWE either...
I like your idea on director remuneration.

[arjay]

true Bilo - although he made Tui happen (even though he thought it was a gas play!).

[bermuda]

true Bilo - although he made Tui happen (even though he thought it was a gas play!).

Arjay,
Matthews had dreams of 700 million barrels of oil....not gas. We were lucky we kept on drilling into the F sands. I remember Radford saying to me at the time " We have got ourselves a little oil field" ( Tui )

[arjay]

Hi Bermuda,
At the time of Hochstetter I asked Eric why they were drilling 'way out there' and not the Tui prospect, which was closer to infrastructure. He said that Hochstetter was an oil play and Tui gas. It's a pity they didn't drill Tui then - NZO might have ended up with a larger slice of the permit.

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda,
At the time of Hochstetter I asked Eric why they were drilling 'way out there' and not the Tui prospect, which was closer to infrastructure. He said that Hochstetter was an oil play and Tui gas. It's a pity they didn't drill Tui then - NZO might have ended up with a larger slice of the permit.

They had a larger share of the Tui permit but they had to sell down to get get Pike underway. Never knew Tui was about gas.

AWE think they can find another Tui close by. Let's hope NZO is part of that permit.

[arjay]

Prior to Hochstetter, the conventional wisdom was that because Tui seismics for C and D sands showed the same patterns as for Maui then Tui was likely to be a gas play. After Hochstetter Tui became an oil play because they recognised that the high quality reservoir sands of Hochstetter extended all the way to Tui. I had a peek back at the 2000 petroleum industry proceedings to check and also noticed that TR was pushing for a 'logical' merger with PPP at the time. Things change huh?

Oh, also interesting to note that Tui was originally estimated to contain between 70 and 350 million barrels (zillion smore if the stratigraphic trap was full). So, I guess we just squeaked in at the lower end. Guess we'd better reward the directors eh?

[Tok3n]

Tui turned out to be a gas field as well anyway

We're just flaring it away to show how much we prefer oil =p

NZO needs another elephant like permit e.g. Hector, its a bit dull at the moment.

[discoII]

a bit dull alright. When are they going to spend their war chest and not sit back with their measly 12.5% in tui. These guys need to pull finger and get exploring, or start to look at buying some other companies. They could easily buy out austral pacific!

[arjay]

Patience Disco, they can't commit to anything until after the Directors-Fees AGM vote. Only then will they know how much of the war-chest will be available for exploration and aquisitions.

[Bixbite]

David Salisbury especially is not worthy of a fee increase just yet. NZO have made no discoveries since he took charge - in fact they've lost from their books two useful gas and oil prospects in north Taranaki. Current NZO wealth is due mainly to the past efforts of people like Eric Matthews who are now out of the loop.

.

The company had a good catch – they caught a huge amount of fish.

.

[duncan macgregor]

I see that ACC have taken their interest to 7% now, by acquiring a further 1.8 million options on market. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still buying, and account for some of the larger option purchases going through. I wonder how much of my hard earned tax money the GOVT has lost with their share investments. I presume they are brain dead with their selling system, only hope they dont belong to the averaging down brigade. Does anyone know what the top price the govt paid to buy the options?. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

I wonder how much of my hard earned tax money the GOVT has lost with their share investments. I presume they are brain dead with their selling system, only hope they dont belong to the averaging down brigade. Does anyone know what the top price the govt paid to buy the options?. MacdunkACC in the main have done extremely well with their portfolio over the years. Perhaps much better than most fund managers. They have been extremely successful with nzo..

ps. their bonus schemes are extremely good incentives.

[friedegg]

well thank f$%^ our market is closed monday,opecs 1.5 mill cut has done jack **** to the oil price but at least our dollar has tanked!!

[Rabbi]

well thank f$%^ our market is closed monday,opecs 1.5 mill cut has done jack **** to the oil price but at least our dollar has tanked!!

...and punters are starting to like oil futures at $50 a barrel.

God stone the crows!:eek:

[Casa del Energia]

I wonder how much of my hard earned tax money the GOVT has lost with their share investments. I presume they are brain dead with their selling system, only hope they dont belong to the averaging down brigade. Does anyone know what the top price the govt paid to buy the options?. Macdunk

There is no direct control by the Excecutive in the Beehive - Equally the 'Cullen Fund' is independent. Both following pretty standard investment strategy. Athough I have wondered why ACC would be such an active participant in the markets as that is not thier 'core' business. I queried that some time ago with the 'powers that be' and just got the usual silence and not persued it. (life is too short to tilt at every windmill).

[winner69]

There is no direct control by the Excecutive in the Beehive - Equally the 'Cullen Fund' is independent. Both following pretty standard investment strategy. Athough I have wondered why ACC would be such an active participant in the markets as that is not thier 'core' business. I queried that some time ago with the 'powers that be' and just got the usual silence and not persued it. (life is too short to tilt at every windmill).

ACC have $10 billion in reserves (to pay out future claims) and it is that money they invest. Of that about $1.0 billion is invested in NZ equities so probably have a piece of every NZX50 company.

Insurance is their 'core' business but they need to do something with all the premium cash sloshing around around .... just like all other insurance companies in the world they invest it in a balanced portfolio

[777]

ACC have $10 billion in reserves (to pay out future claims) and it is that money they invest. Of that about $1.0 billion is invested in NZ equities so probably have a piece of every NZX50 company.

Insurance is their 'core' business but they need to do something with all the premium cash sloshing around around .... just like all other insurance companies in the world they invest it in a balanced portfolio


And look at the increase in ACC levies due next April.

http://www.acc.co.nz/levies-and-cover/levy-consultation-2008-09/index.htm

[winner69]

And look at the increase in ACC levies due next April.

http://www.acc.co.nz/levies-and-cover/levy-consultation-2008-09/index.htm


... even more to put into NZO ... ha ha

[Dr_Who]

ACC have $10 billion in reserves (to pay out future claims) and it is that money they invest. Of that about $1.0 billion is invested in NZ equities so probably have a piece of every NZX50 company.

Insurance is their 'core' business but they need to do something with all the premium cash sloshing around around .... just like all other insurance companies in the world they invest it in a balanced portfolio

Didnt ACC pay over $1.50 for their NZO holding? LOL

[duncan macgregor]

Didnt ACC pay over $1.50 for their NZO holding? LOLThey sure did. They bought the options then paid $1-50 to convert. i think they also bought the heads at well above that price and GAWD only knows what they did with PRC.
It would be nice to know what formal training in share trading the decision makers have had. I think the govt should only invest in infrastructure and keep my tax money out of the hands of this sort of gambling speculation. I would like to see them cash out and invest in something like gold and silver when they were that stupid as not to foresee this crash when so many of us were warning of the danger. Even a simple TA sell system would have had them out the market eight months ago. Macdunk

[777]

But if everyone acted eight months ago Duncan then would not the sharemarket have crashed then? It probably would have been known as the "great TA Crash".

[duncan macgregor]

But if everyone acted eight months ago Duncan then would not the sharemarket have crashed then? It probably would have been known as the "great TA Crash". It might have also gone under the heading OF THE GREAT TA CASH OUT. Macdunk

[Rabbi]

Somebody with an investment newsletter now suggesting oil heading for $30 barrel on falling worldwide demand. Some oil companies I have invested in have just paid big bucks to close off their hedging contracts to take advantage of high prices.

aarrggh! :eek:

[Casa del Energia]

They sure did. They bought the options then paid $1-50 to convert. i think they also bought the heads at well above that price and GAWD only knows what they did with PRC.
It would be nice to know what formal training in share trading the decision makers have had. I think the govt should only invest in infrastructure and keep my tax money out of the hands of this sort of gambling speculation. I would like to see them cash out and invest in something like gold and silver when they were that stupid as not to foresee this crash when so many of us were warning of the danger. Even a simple TA sell system would have had them out the market eight months ago. Macdunk

Well that's really the nub of the matter. ACC is not a 'normal' insurance coy - only one line of business and whilst there's cash to be stored, they don't have to replace a CDB when the big one hits. Just find it a little strange to be involved high risk investments - it just feels 'off norm'. The bottom line is that NZO is not a conservative investment.

[gambier33]

Casa,

What proportion of ACC's investment is in NZO and the like?

NZO is only a high risk investment for the ACC if a significant part of their portfolio is in NZO and other equities with a similar risk and volatility. A highly conservative portfolio can have a very small proportion (no more than, say, 5%) in higher risk stocks, and still be called "conservative". In fact, it's a smart way to construct a conservative portfolio.

If NZO had tanked, which didn't look likely when they invested, the total potfolio return would have barely hiccupped, but if it becomes a $5 stock, it adds a layer of cream to the overall return.

[winner69]

As at June ACC had nearly $10 billion invested as - so even if NZO went broke only a hiccup

Cash Portfolio $571M
Reserves Cash $107M
NZ Index Linked Bonds $483M
NZ Bonds $4,668M
NZ Equity $952M
Property & Infrastructure $157M
NZ Private Equity $70M
Australian Equity $771M
Overseas Bonds $290M
Overseas Equity– Developed $1,940M
Overseas Equity – Emerging $96M
Other $35M
Total Reserves $9,569M

[digger]

Thanks to all who sent their proxy to me.I have faxed this info to wellington.Note it is to be in by 10.30 am on monday and that as monday is a holiday the only way to now get it there is fax it. Anyone still wanting to send in their proxy should immediately fax it to 094888787.
Would remind all to consider that if resolution 7 and 8 are approved it also intends to mean your thoughts on future free hand outs to directors will be taken for granted.Will not even bother to go through the painful process of asking us in the coming years.Great scheme--directors are not allowed to buy on market as have inside info but at the same time grab all we get suckered into giving them.And in the future if these pass will not even bother to ask us.Anyone still wondering why the world is in a finanical mess. These people that so pride themselves as being members of the directors association are the industry leader.Woe to the vanquished at the bottom,when leaders like this are at the top.

[Wiremu]

Stamper,

I don't know why this seems to be such an emotional issue, but that's your business.

However to get the facts right, the shares are not free; and any issue of shares to any directors in any listed company needs to be approved by shareholders.

Also, directors can buy and sell shares on market if they do not hold inside information, make those transactions in accordance with the company's share trading policy, and declare the transactions to the company and to the stock exchange.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Wiremu;230311]Stamper,

I don't know why this seems to be such an emotional issue, but that's your business.

However to get the facts right, the shares are not free; and any issue of shares to any directors in any listed company needs to be approved by shareholders.
Wiremu

Personally I hope the issue of directors fees and the options dont detract from the meeting like they did for contact-I feel that unlike the contact directors nzo have performed well in difficult times .
I am currently away from home but my understanding is that if approved the CEO and directors only have to pay 1 cent to get an option to buy at a later date(?any time ) a nzo share at the current price plus 20 %.

So say in 2 years time if the directors decide no dividends-we will reinvest all profits back in the company -and prc is sold at a great profit and price of oil is back at $150 us and kiwi is 50 cents-and each nzo share has an asset backing of $5.00-the option could still be converted for $1.40.

Please correct me if I am wrong-there should be a time limit on the options but I dont recall seeing one .

[shasta]

[quote=Wiremu;230311]Stamper,

I don't know why this seems to be such an emotional issue, but that's your business.

However to get the facts right, the shares are not free; and any issue of shares to any directors in any listed company needs to be approved by shareholders.
Wiremu

Personally I hope the issue of directors fees and the options dont detract from the meeting like they did for contact-I feel that unlike the contact directors nzo have performed well in difficult times .
I am currently away from home but my understanding is that if approved the CEO and directors only have to pay 1 cent to get an option to buy at a later date(?any time ) a nzo share at the current price plus 20 %.

So say in 2 years time if the directors decide no dividends-we will reinvest all profits back in the company -and prc is sold at a great profit and price of oil is back at $150 us and kiwi is 50 cents-and each nzo share has an asset backing of $5.00-the option could still be converted for $1.40.

Please correct me if I am wrong-there should be a time limit on the options but I dont recall seeing one .

I should point out the fact that Directors are after the part paid shares (as per the employee share scheme), means they won't have to expense any "free shares" or options given to them, under any AGM resolution.

Executive options must be valued & expensed according to IFRS, & thus open to full disclosure & scrutiny in the financials.

This is also possibly dillutionary to shareholders, so it would be better that they bought the shares on-market.

[digger]

Here is what my emotional issue is with directors cashing in on the ESOP scheme. Well it is not one issue it is about 5
First it was developed for staff not directors.TR first hopped in in 2005 or thereabouts and as he has had many long years with a few good size downturns thrown in he got into the scheme.The other directors then jumped in.Last year and again this year and every year into the infinite future DS has of right earmarked himself as a starter for more shares.
They are paid to one cent and with full price being take up value plus 20% from date of issue. Well that gives a start date but not a end date.Now no end date is very handy,so it will be not suprise that that will be selected at a very suitable time.And if that end date should be lower than the origional take up date the directors will be compensated by only having to pay 90% of the average at that end date time.That is also very handy.
In the meantime only one cent has to be put down as security.
Now all this is so stressful that we are now also asked to increase directors remuneration as well,just like we did last year and will be asked to do so for many years to come regardless of how well the non directors shareholders are doing.
All sounds to me like the americanisation of NZ directors.But then in the US the directors have done very well just every one else that has had the hard times. YES Wiremu it would be very easy to get emotional about what is going on,but you would have to have a care outside the directors self interest to see it.
Digger

[Wiremu]

Fish

According to the information in the notice of meeting the final date for the ESOP partly paid shares is 5 years.

[QOH]

NZO AGM
Is anyone interested in having a chat at morning tea or meeting up for a drink afterwards? Would be nice to meet some more forum members.

[arjay]

The Contact AGM was emotional probably largely due to a huge amount of shareholders knowing they were powerless to stop the motion because their directors had the support of one shareholder that held the majority of shares. NZO doesn't have one, or even a small number, of majority shareholders to steamroller remits through. Hence, voters at the AGM should feel more empowered, which means less panic.

Times are getting tough. Directors are part of the economy, so have to tighten their belts when their company and shareholders have to tighten theirs. It's really that simple. If our directors want more money they should be encouraged to go elsewhere.......and good luck to them finding a better trough in the current economic climate.

[digger]

The Contact AGM was emotional probably largely due to a huge amount of shareholders knowing they were powerless to stop the motion because their directors had the support of one shareholder that held the majority of shares. NZO doesn't have one, or even a small number, of majority shareholders to steamroller remits through. Hence, voters at the AGM should feel more empowered, which means less panic.

Times are getting tough. Directors are part of the economy, so have to tighten their belts when their company and shareholders have to tighten theirs. It's really that simple. If our directors want more money they should be encouraged to go elsewhere.......and good luck to them finding a better trough in the current economic climate.

Arjay please remove last post unless you are prepared to be quoted.As well as buggering off unless they get their own way,why do we need resolution 5 to succed as MR Knight wants pay perks before he is ever elected.Yes it is time to find replacements inside the existing shareholders unless we see a serious attitude change on the part of directors.
I have received quite a number of emails from concerned shareholders on this pig at the trough approach by directors.One of the better ideas is to amend the ESOP scheme for directors so that it becomes 20% above the last option conversion price.That would certainly be fair to shareholders that took up the NZOOD's and put directors with us instead of their current elitist position.
You have to have very serious concerns about how this worldwide directors grab is going to play into the hands of the left.I have always liked best the right but it is in it's pure form a failure and the cause of the present mess.Unless world wide directors learn to place limits on themselves for stricter controls will come back to bite them.
If NZO money grab goes through it will be largely that it was by the deciet of springing it onto us in a very short notice,as per many emails.
Will try to get this subjecr brought up in the leaders next debate

[Unicorn]

NZO AGM
Is anyone interested in having a chat at morning tea or meeting up for a drink afterwards? Would be nice to meet some more forum members.

Hi QOH

There will be a number of forum participants at the AGM. Come and make yourself known - it is a friendly bunch and you will be most welcome to join in the discussion.

The Sean Connery lookalike character berating the directors for their greed and poor timing will be Digger. Home in on him after the meeting - he will probably be in the company of a few other forum members who have been berating the directors for their greed and poor timing.

[Unicorn]

I have received quite a number of emails from concerned shareholders on this pig at the trough approach by directors.One of the better ideas is to amend the ESOP scheme for directors so that it becomes 20% above the last option conversion price.That would certainly be fair to shareholders that took up the NZOOD's and put directors with us instead of their current elitist position.

If NZO money grab goes through it will be largely that it was by the deciet of springing it onto us in a very short notice,as per many emails.

Hi Digger

I don't like your idea of pricing ESOP shares relative to the last options. That might only encourage the issue of more cheap options - and the last ones have cost us more than enough! Perhaps pricing at VWAP over 6 months (rather than one month) and including new shares in that calculation would be a better method.

If the money grab does go through, we always have recourse to an EGM to reverse it - we only need 5% (about 20M shares) to initiate such a meeting. Resolution 6 is tantamount to the directors declaring war on the shareholders - we can't afford to lose.

I am not convinced that resolution 6 will actually be put to the meeting. It just doesn't make any sense for directors to show themselves as so out of touch with reality. Perhaps it is there as a smokescreen to be withdrawn at the start of the meeting to help the other resolutions go through.

[digger]

Hi Digger

I don't like your idea of pricing ESOP shares relative to the last options. That might only encourage the issue of more cheap options - and the last ones have cost us more than enough! Perhaps pricing at VWAP over 6 months (rather than one month) and including new shares in that calculation would be a better method.

If the money grab does go through, we always have recourse to an EGM to reverse it - we only need 5% (about 20M shares) to initiate such a meeting. Resolution 6 is tantamount to the directors declaring war on the shareholders - we can't afford to lose.

I am not convinced that resolution 6 will actually be put to the meeting. It just doesn't make any sense for directors to show themselves as so out of touch with reality. Perhaps it is there as a smokescreen to be withdrawn at the start of the meeting to help the other resolutions go through.


Hi Unicorn,
I am not advocating the ESOP scheme be set at the last option conversion price,just that it was the best put forward of a bad bunch.Actually this whole thing of directors jumping on the ESOP bandwagon should be reversed and declared illegal.It was set up for employees and directors do not qualify.It is now being absused.Directors make the decisions and should not be protected from the down side of there own decisions and if they do succeed the weight has to be picked up by the rest of us.
Like the idea of a EGM if the money grab is successful and think 20 million can easily be arranged.Several emails have said they are on holiday and can not access there proxy forms in such short notice. Unicorn you are better than i at looking up the rules,so is this very short notice for money grab legal? I am wondering as on 16th sept i was told this was all be be released in a few days but in fact took another 3 weeks.Also to get the proxy form in by yesterday at 10-30 AM when yesterday was a holiday really shortens the period to the prevoius friday.Surely these already overpaid directors can work out when long weekends occure and act accordingly.Smells a bit fishey to me. The proxy forms are also unnesserally confusing and you have to ask who is benifiting from that. Half way down the proxy form just under INSTRUCTIONS TO PROXY is a box to tick [A] if you do not wish to direct proxy how to vote. All the proxys i have clearly show how they want to vote and usually with accompaning letters but are split 50-50 on whether to tick {a} or not. Now is this a deliberate confusion to to invalidate some votes.
I can see no reason to have a negative instruction unless to cause confusion which it certainly has,and from some well educated individuals at that. So if the proxy clearly tick the solutions choices what function does that negative [A] instruction preform?
I will be voting against resolutions 5,6,7,and 8
Digger

[Neon_Spork]

Looks like there is a new announcement regarding a JV in the Canterbury basin. Sounds interesting.

#####################################
New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited - Announcements

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 40% stake in
permit PEP38259, which lies in the offshore Canterbury Basin.

Under the agreement NZOG will acquire the 40% permit interest from Tap (New Zealand) Pty
Ltd, a subsidiary of Australian company Tap Oil Limited.

The other joint venture parties are:
AWE New Zealand Pty Ltd 25% (Operator)
Beach Petroleum (NZ) Pty Ltd 20%
Anzon New Zealand Ltd 15%

NZOG CEO David Salisbury says permit PEP38259 contains the promising Barque gas and
condensate prospect.

“Over the past year or so, NZOG’s technical team has completed a detailed evaluation of
many of the New Zealand basins, including Canterbury Basin. This has enabled us to
independently assess the Barque prospect and rank it against other opportunities.

“We have concluded that the Canterbury Basin has proven effective petroleum systems
present and the potential to produce commercial quantities of oil and gas.

“From our evaluation, the Barque Prospect stands out as having potential for P50 (best
estimate) recoverable resources of 600 billion cubic feet (BCF) of dry sales gas and 58
million barrels (mmbbls) of light oil/condensate.

“However, a lot of work remains to be done to assess the prospect, beginning with further
seismic studies. There is no certainty that an exploration well will be drilled or that a
commercial development will be the end result.”

The Operator, AWE, is planning a marine seismic survey to be undertaken in early 2009.
Under the agreement, NZOG would participate at 40% through the seismic programme. The
permit conditions require a decision on whether or not to drill an exploration well to be
made by August 2010.

“We are delighted to have an agreement that secures participation in the assessment of
what we believe is one of the more promising oil and gas prospects available in New
Zealand.

“NZOG enjoys an excellent working relationship with AWE through the producing Tui field
in offshore Taranaki and we look forward to working with AWE and the other joint venture
parties in Canterbury,” David Salisbury said.
#####################################

[Dr_Who]

Looks like there is a new announcement regarding a JV in the Canterbury basin. Sounds interesting.

#####################################
New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited - Announcements

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 40% stake in
permit PEP38259, which lies in the offshore Canterbury Basin.



How much will this cost NZO? Need to work outtheir cash holding after paying for this new venture.

[discoII]

after a year is this all they can manage? The further seismic studies is going to cost the JV 100-200K, so NZOG are splashing some big money on this one!

It looks to me that NZOG doesn't have the inhouse technical ability to spend any of its money. There is a lot of hot air coming out of their offices on the terrace

[shasta]

after a year is this all they can manage? The further seismic studies is going to cost the JV 100-200K, so NZOG are splashing some big money on this one!

It looks to me that NZOG doesn't have the inhouse technical ability to spend any of its money. There is a lot of hot air coming out of their offices on the terrace

NZO Sept Quarterly Activities Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=308213

NZO Sept Cashflow Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=308211

[Dr_Who]

after a year is this all they can manage? The further seismic studies is going to cost the JV 100-200K, so NZOG are splashing some big money on this one!

It looks to me that NZOG doesn't have the inhouse technical ability to spend any of its money. There is a lot of hot air coming out of their offices on the terrace

I actually prefer NZO not spend any money and hold cash in this environment. Cash is KING.

[manxman]

Looks like there is a new announcement regarding a JV in the Canterbury basin. Sounds interesting.



Remember just before the TUI development drilling program, the Ocean Patriot was chased off this permit by an iceberg. And with no thermal power stations in the South Island, what could you do with all that gas?
No deepwater port for LNG exports even if it was vaguely economic.
So interesting - yes
exciting - not yet.

[Snow Leopard]

It was Abraham Lincoln who said:
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time".

Strangely he failed to say that equal truism.
"You can not please any NZOG shareholder any of the time.



"Cheer up, the worlds about to end".^

regards
Paper Tiger

^From Douglas Adams Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy

[digger]

I actually prefer NZO not spend any money and hold cash in this environment. Cash is KING.
Your on to it Dr Who. The best thing NZO could have done in a crashing market is nothing.In markets like this this opportunity is just not going to be taken up by others,so it should have waited.Every month now brings the same opportunity but much cheaper.Keep it in mind that the details of this buyin was arranged months ago and things have changed far too much to hail it a success. Success at the moment is cash.
Digger

[Mr Tommy]

From the PPP quarterly just released today...
Planning for the Tui-4H additional development well continues, while the Tui joint venture partners are also still considering additional exploration drilling. Timing of any activities will be subject rig availability, but could be as early as early 2009.

So early 2009 we could be drilling in Tui again, and I didnt see any mention of this in the NOG report. The PPP report also said Tui is producing at 35000 barrels again, NOG say 32000.
Are there 2 cans of Tui ?

[digger]

From the PPP quarterly just released today...
Planning for the Tui-4H additional development well continues, while the Tui joint venture partners are also still considering additional exploration drilling. Timing of any activities will be subject rig availability, but could be as early as early 2009.

So early 2009 we could be drilling in Tui again, and I didnt see any mention of this in the NOG report. The PPP report also said Tui is producing at 35000 barrels again, NOG say 32000.
Are there 2 cans of Tui ?

MR Tommy,your posts just goes to show how fast things are changing as many of us have perviously said. Before the finanical crash there was no way we would even be considering more TUI drilling for a few years given the lack of rigs.We still need to be very careful here as things will most likely get even more favourable in the near future.
Digger.

[duncan macgregor]

NZO have a declared position in the canterbury basin if you care to look it up. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Isnt this a great opportunity for nzo. plenty of cash and plenty of assets and companies becoming availvable at bargain buys. Consolidation is the name of the game over the next couple of years

[fish]

[
NZO Sept Cashflow Report


At 30 September 2008, NZOG’s total cash on hand
was NZ$286.4m, with a portion of these funds
held in US denominated accounts[/QUOTE]

Does anyone know how much is held in us denominated accounts-with the depreciation of the nz$ in past 4 weeks plus tui oil I suspect we may atlast have reached the $300 m cash on hand -less that paid for the canterbury prospect .

Reading the quarterly report superficially it doesnt look like the next dividend is going to be paid for 11 months ! When we have such brilliant cashflow and so much in the bank I would have thought a xmas dividend of 5c would be a very good idea.

[temuk]

$286.4m was in NZ$ equivelent as at 30-9-08

Less 66.8m of debt and 19.8m paid out for dividend 1-10-08

[Bixbite]

$286.4m was in NZ$ equivelent as at 30-9-08

Less 66.8m of debt and 19.8m paid out for dividend 1-10-08

Temuk

Please refer to the cash flows report – 3(e) dividends paid (19,812) has been accounted for.

.

[Unicorn]

Hi Unicorn,
Unicorn you are better than i at looking up the rules,so is this very short notice for money grab legal? I am wondering as on 16th sept i was told this was all be be released in a few days but in fact took another 3 weeks.

Also to get the proxy form in by yesterday at 10-30 AM when yesterday was a holiday really shortens the period to the prevoius friday.

The proxy forms are also unnesserally confusing and you have to ask who is benifiting from that.
Digger

Notice of meeting needs to be sent out at least 10 working days before the meeting. I am fairly sure I received mine in plenty of time.

Proxies can be submitted right up to the start of the meeting - to someone who is prepared to accept them. The chairman, or anyone else, may set an earlier closeoff to make it easier for them to manage the proxies submitted to them.

I thought the Voting Card wording was okay. The single tick that allows you to let your proxy vote however they see fit is common, although it seems superfluous as a blank proxy does the same thing. If a poll is taken the Proxy will presumably need to tick the boxes against each resolution being polled before handing the voting card in.

[Nitaa]

Nita picked up some more shares at $1.13 today. Fundamentally I brought with a medium to long term view. Willing to accpet plenty more volatility knowing that at present sp fundamentals are out the window.

On a negative side, oil still sliding and who knows where the bottom is short term.

[digger]

I thought the Voting Card wording was okay. The single tick that allows you to let your proxy vote however they see fit is common, although it seems superfluous as a blank proxy does the same thing. If a poll is taken the Proxy will presumably need to tick the boxes against each resolution being polled before handing the voting card in.

Unicorn,that is not what it says and in fact would be great and simple if it said the way you put it but it dosen't.It in fact is the negative saying'If you do not wish to direct your proxy how to vote please place a tick in the following box.' That is so confusing that about half have ticked this box yet mostly all placed their vote.So it creates confusion.I can not understand why that line is there because if you did not want your proxy to vote why give the voting form in the first place.
See you tomorrow
Digger

[the machine]

From the PPP quarterly just released today...
Planning for the Tui-4H additional development well continues, while the Tui joint venture partners are also still considering additional exploration drilling. Timing of any activities will be subject rig availability, but could be as early as early 2009.

So early 2009 we could be drilling in Tui again, and I didnt see any mention of this in the NOG report. The PPP report also said Tui is producing at 35000 barrels again, NOG say 32000.
Are there 2 cans of Tui ?


and long lead time items have been ordered - presumably tui 4H and some other wells

M

[Rabbi]

Re the Canterbury basin permit, there is no infrastructure in the South Island to take up any gas. I would presume this would change if a big gas find did eventuate, and that would apply to the Great South Basin permits also.

Personally I would like to see NZO farmin to some overseas permits with elephant potential. OEL has some in the Phillipines and they are still looking for partners to drill them.

Bring on the excitement!:)

[duncan macgregor]

Nita picked up some more shares at $1.13 today. Fundamentally I brought with a medium to long term view. Willing to accpet plenty more volatility knowing that at present sp fundamentals are out the window.

On a negative side, oil still sliding and who knows where the bottom is short term. NITA Short term does not really matter for a long term investor who relies on a long term result. Looking back the NZO sp was higher five years ago even if you add the dividends to the sp. If you add the options at $1-50 then long term over the last five years has been great for the company, but a disaster for the shareholders.
Looking forward medium term, the sp wont head north to high simply because without a drill there is very little thrill. The time to get back into NZO is when a new exciting project gets under way, which in this case is 2010. Some people have learned very little about investing during this down turn, and watched a profit position turn into a dead loss position. To get all worked up about what a company gets up to shows that the investor lets their heart rule their mind like some love sick teenager. To make money in this investing world, you must condition yourself to only think of your own position, not a companies. Macdunk

[Sehnsucht888]

Odd, DOW up 10.88% last night, and all the NZO bidders over $1.15 have disappeared..... Normally the bidders would be over the previous close.

[blockhead]

Difficult to get a buy order in from the cream cake table at the AGM !!

[Nitaa]

NITA Short term does not really matter for a long term investor who relies on a long term result. Looking back the NZO sp was higher five years ago even if you add the dividends to the sp. If you add the options at $1-50 then long term over the last five years has been great for the company, but a disaster for the shareholders.
Macdunk
Hey Macca. Good to see you still hanging around. Sorry to inform you but the sp was under 40 cps this time 5 years ago.. Looking at the stockness monsterchart the sp has increased over 250% from this time 5 years ago. I have to say I understand why you struggle to make money out of this stock or any stock when you get your data so horribly wrong

Things to consider investing especially if you focus on charts.
1/ Make sure your information is correct
2/ look at the macro picture and not just 1 point of reference only.
3/ never invest what you cannot afford to lose.

Those basics will hold you in good stead macca.

Your mate Nita...

[Sehnsucht888]

Difficult to get a buy order in from the cream cake table at the AGM !!

True, that could be why it has been quiet.
Seemed ominous when there where some buys prior to 9AM when changes start to appear..

I think digger had fun at the AGM... I had to leave before the end unfortunately and will leave it to those who are better commincaters to comment on it...

[QOH]

Difficult to get a buy order in from the cream cake table at the AGM !!

Didn't see any cream cakes or sausage rolls at the AGM, however we did get a cute bottle of vintage Tui Oil. I did suggest on here months ago that it would be a nice gesture, maybe they read it. Maybe we will get the chunk of coal to go with it next year.

[Billy Boy]

Didn't see any cream cakes or sausage rolls at the AGM, however we did get a cute bottle of vintage Tui Oil. I did suggest on here months ago that it would be a nice gesture, maybe they read it. Maybe we will get the chunk of coal to go with it next year.
No mate
Ya gotta be a Piker for that.
BB:D

[Nitaa]

The results in the voting wasnt suprising. I am a little surpirised about the text that David Salisbury used when recomending the directors fees especially in light of recent econmic events. I cannot help but feel that TR is still calling the shots.

However I was not present at the AGM and I will be interested to get the feedback from shareholders who attended.

[QOH]

I had filled in my voting form before the meeting , but did cross another director off after I heard him speak.

[Sehnsucht888]

Less than one third of votes were used. Thats a bit disappointing...
Is that a normal percentage of action? I must admit I have usually not bothered - having a small holding. But many large holders must also not have bothered...

I wasn't concerned about the directors talks. One seemed like he was prepared with cards for a speech, but there wasn't a direction given for what to talk about, so was just a short talk on what they wanted.

I didn't really agree with the guy from Taranaki about refreshing the board members frequantly... Seems that that would remove a large chunk of knowledge if done too much. It takes time to get into the flow of things, and really give direction, so to get rid of that knowledge would require some depth in a newcomer, and again time to get up to speed. THats my impression, but never really thought about it before..

[Zaphod]

NZO
29/10/2008
MEETING

REL: 1647 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MEETING: NZO: NZOG Annual Meeting Results

The outcome in relation to each resolution, put to shareholders of New
Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd at its Annual Meeting held on 29 October 2008 at
Wellington, was as follows:

Resolution 1: That the proposed new Constitution tabled at the meeting, and
signed by the Chairman of the meeting for the purpose of identification, be
and is hereby adopted as the Constitution of the Company, in substitution for
the present Constitution of the Company.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as a special resolution
requiring at least 75% in favour.
The result of the voting was:
For 91,510,937
Against 17,940,674
Abstain 3,776,227

Resolution 2: That the Company's Board of Directors be authorised to fix the
auditors' remuneration.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 108,898,843
Against 1,8
53,371
Abstain 2,475,624

Resolution 3: That Prof R F Meyer be re-elected as a Director.
The resolution was c carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 75,379,999
Against 28,401,260
Abstain 8,761,579

Resolution 4: That Mr S J Rawson be re-elected as a Director.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 97,067,086
Against 3,955,916
Abstain 8,473,737

Resolution 5: That Mr A T N Knight be re-elected as a Director.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 92,506,268
Against 8,417,728
Abstain 8,572,743

Resolution 6: That Directors' fees be increased to a maximum of $600,000 per
annum being the combined aggregate for all non-executive Directors.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 70,512,908
Again
st 29,989,911
Abstain 9,011,783

Resolution 7: That the Board is authorised to issue during the period of 12
months following the date of this resolution up to 150,000 partly paid shares
in the Company to Mr Andrew Knight, being a non-executive Director, such
issue to occur as a result of the acceptance of an offer of such shares to Mr
Knight in accordance with the terms of the Company's Employee Share Ownership
Plan.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 68,018,884
Against 31,445,203
Abstain 10,020,515

Resolution 8: That the Board is authorised at its discretion to issue during
the period of 12 months following the date of this resolution up to 250,000
partly paid shares in the Company to the Company's Managing Director and
Chief Executive Officer Mr David Salisbury, such issue to occur as a result
of the acceptance of an offer of such shares to Mr Salisbury in accordance
with the terms of the Company's
Employee Share Ownership Plan following a
determination (if any) by the Company's Executive Appointments and
Remuneration Committee that such an offer be made.
The resolution was carried, following a poll, as an ordinary resolution.
The result of the voting was:
For 85,442,589
Against 14,972,088
Abstain 9,069,925

Independent Directors
In accordance with NZX Listing Rule 3.3.1B (a) the following directors were
identified at the Annual Meeting as Independent Directors:, Mr P G Foley, Mr
A T N Knight, Prof R F Meyer, Mr S J Rawson and Mr D R Scoffham.

ENDS
End CA:00172069 For:NZO Type:MEETING Time:2008-10-29:16:47:45

[arjay]

Very surprised to see all resolutions passed with such healthy margins, especially the increases to directors fees in light of recent events elsewhere and discussions on this thread. My own views are obviously very out of step with the majority of NZO shareholders.

[JBmurc]

Part of NZO growth strategy started today with the announcement about taking a 40% share in the Canterbury basin

Well even more reason to takeover TAP with them also having interest's in the caterbury basin and being hugely undervalued NZO could takeover on the cheap

[digger]

Basically it was a good and fair AGM. For awhile before the meeting it looked like only 4 million of my proxys were to be allowed but Paul Foley fixed it up so that the one from myself and family also counted.Had approx 8 million in total voting against 5,6,7 and 8. Most of the against 5 came from me so i guess voters are wanting new blood. I am personally disappointed that directors have been allowed to hijack the ESOP and use it as their own piggy bank,given that the E stands for employee and none of the directors qualify as a employee. This year we faced two problems the first was that we all started too late in getting organised against resolutions 7 and 8 and the hugh apathy where less than a third of voters exercise there responsbility to get off there a---- and do anything.
I would definately say all is not lost as spoke to most directors and while we did not win this time our views were taken on board.TR is a cunning old fox and this will damping down the grab for next year compared to what would have happened if they went from here with a 100% acceptance.
A number of voters spoke in thanks for the two dividends and this getting something back has left many at the meeting feeling more favourable to the directors than us sharetrader grumbling lot here often express.A few shareholders had never heard of sharetrader.
As i was boarding the plane to return to Hamilton Scamper came up and interduced himself.He sat next to the ACC representative ---but that is his story.
Also met QOH Waaihoek and Unicorn. No Bermuda this year.
With some others spoke with DS after the meeting.He is definately clued up.Gave us some run down of the new Canterbury basic permit and what it could contain but until the drill is completed it remains just hope.
A point that came up several times is that with the dollar falling and expected to be more so in the furure we are still selling TUI oil at 100 NZ so still very profitable.Wrote down the figures but already can not find them.Thing it was about 18 dollars in cost and about 18 again in rolaties and again something like that in tax so the rest was profit.We are pumping about 34000 a day still .Also the drill for next year is getting far more likely.
Cheers for now.Digger

[friedegg]

Very surprised to see all resolutions passed with such healthy margins, especially the increases to directors fees in light of recent events elsewhere and discussions on this thread. My own views are obviously very out of step with the majority of NZO shareholders.
well im happy with the reports,i was opposed to any buyback,and nzo has delivered so the directors fees was niether here nor there with me,we have some new potential to look forward to,we have no debt!!!and we have cash and income.so im happy even in this climate

[digger]

Part of NZO growth strategy started today with the announcement about taking a 40% share in the Canterbury basin

Well even more reason to takeover TAP with them also having interest's in the caterbury basin and being hugely undervalued NZO could takeover on the cheap

Hey JBmurc where are you coming from. I thought it was from TAP that we bought our new 40% stake.
Digger

[shasta]

Basically it was a good and fair AGM. For awhile before the meeting it looked like only 4 million of my proxys were to be allowed but Paul Foley fixed it up so that the one from myself and family also counted.Had approx 8 million in total voting against 5,6,7 and 8. Most of the against 5 came from me so i guess voters are wanting new blood. I am personally disappointed that directors have been allowed to hijack the ESOP and use it as their own piggy bank,given that the E stands for employee and none of the directors qualify as a employee. This year we faced two problems the first was that we all started too late in getting organised against resolutions 7 and 8 and the hugh apathy where less than a third of voters exercise there responsbility to get off there a---- and do anything.
I would definately say all is not lost as spoke to most directors and while we did not win this time our views were taken on board.TR is a cunning old fox and this will damping down the grab for next year compared to what would have happened if they went from here with a 100% acceptance.
A number of voters spoke in thanks for the two dividends and this getting something back has left many at the meeting feeling more favourable to the directors than us sharetrader grumbling lot here often express.A few shareholders had never heard of sharetrader.
As i was boarding the plane to return to Hamilton Scamper came up and interduced himself.He sat next to the ACC representative ---but that is his story.
Also met QOH Waaihoek and Unicorn. No Bermuda this year.
With some others spoke with DS after the meeting.He is definately clued up.Gave us some run down of the new Canterbury basic permit and what it could contain but until the drill is completed it remains just hope.
A point that came up several times is that with the dollar falling and expected to be more so in the furure we are still selling TUI oil at 100 NZ so still very profitable.Wrote down the figures but already can not find them.Thing it was about 18 dollars in cost and about 18 again in rolaties and again something like that in tax so the rest was profit.We are pumping about 34000 a day still .Also the drill for next year is getting far more likely.
Cheers for now.Digger

Digger

From the AGM presentation, based on $NZ120/bbl, they were making $NZ45/bbl profit.

[digger]

well im happy with the reports,i was opposed to any buyback,and nzo has delivered so the directors fees was niether here nor there with me,we have some new potential to look forward to,we have no debt!!!and we have cash and income.so im happy even in this climate
Yes friedegg and that about sums up what most of the shareholders felt.Shame though that we can not find some way to reward the directors without raiding the employees piggy bank.

[JBmurc]

Hey JBmurc where are you coming from. I thought it was from TAP that we bought our new 40% stake.
Digger



Yeah my wrong -Under the agreement NZOG will acquire the 40% permit interest from Tap (New Zealand) Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Australian company Tap Oil Limited.

Still think TAP would be a great add-on for NZO at the right price say 120-130mill offer


TAP's Key Strengths
 Established Asset base with:
 Developed Reserves - 6.5mmboe
 Additional contracted gas - 5.9mmboe
 Contingent resources - 26.7mmboe
 Strong financial position
 ~no debt, forward programme fully funded
 ~A$50 million cash flow from operations (p.a.)

[777]

Basically it was a good and fair AGM. For awhile before the meeting it looked like only 4 million of my proxys were to be allowed but Paul Foley fixed it up so that the one from myself and family also counted.Had approx 8 million in total voting against 5,6,7 and 8. Most of the against 5 came from me so i guess voters are wanting new blood. I am personally disappointed that directors have been allowed to hijack the ESOP and use it as their own piggy bank,given that the E stands for employee and none of the directors qualify as a employee. This year we faced two problems the first was that we all started too late in getting organised against resolutions 7 and 8 and the hugh apathy where less than a third of voters exercise there responsbility to get off there a---- and do anything.
I would definately say all is not lost as spoke to most directors and while we did not win this time our views were taken on board.TR is a cunning old fox and this will damping down the grab for next year compared to what would have happened if they went from here with a 100% acceptance.
A number of voters spoke in thanks for the two dividends and this getting something back has left many at the meeting feeling more favourable to the directors than us sharetrader grumbling lot here often express.A few shareholders had never heard of sharetrader.
As i was boarding the plane to return to Hamilton Scamper came up and interduced himself.He sat next to the ACC representative ---but that is his story.
Also met QOH Waaihoek and Unicorn. No Bermuda this year.
With some others spoke with DS after the meeting.He is definately clued up.Gave us some run down of the new Canterbury basic permit and what it could contain but until the drill is completed it remains just hope.
A point that came up several times is that with the dollar falling and expected to be more so in the furure we are still selling TUI oil at 100 NZ so still very profitable.Wrote down the figures but already can not find them.Thing it was about 18 dollars in cost and about 18 again in rolaties and again something like that in tax so the rest was profit.We are pumping about 34000 a day still .Also the drill for next year is getting far more likely.
Cheers for now.Digger

Digger are these votes audited in any way. I voted against 5,6,7 and 8 as well with 250,000 shares (in two holdings). I used the chairman as my proxy but instructed him on the forms which way to vote.

[Unicorn]

I was an interesting enough AGM. There were some valuable insights, especially from the post-meeting discussions. All the directors and staff were very approachable and generous with their time, and all seemed to have a very good grasp of what was going on.

Dividend policy seems quite well defined in the minds of the board members. But they prefer to leave it stated very loosely, which seems mainly to be to avoid being put in a spot by having to depart from a specific policy due to factors outside their control. They are well aware of the extreme near term volatility of oil prices. The general intent seems to be that some profit will be paid as dividends and some retained for expansion, but the amount paid as a dividend will be reasonably consistent. This may require differing percentages of profit to be paid as dividends from year to year.

Resolution 6 was not as bad as it appears -it was very poorly explained in the notes. The intention was to increase base directors fees from the current $40,000 to $60,000 this year - which would mean a total expense of $480,000. The remainder of the $600,000 is headroom so the same topic does not need to be revisited again next year.

The chairman was holding approximately 100 million proxies, of which about 30 million were undirected and not more than 28 million against any resolution (working from memory here). That means about 10 million shares were voted by attendees.

Current cash cash profit per barrel of Tui oil is about $60NZ, with NZO share of production about 4,000 barrels a day. So there is still an underlying cash profit of about $7M a month. Accounting profit will be lower due to amortisation and depreciation.

More Tui wells are being arranged, but there are difficulties sourcing drilling rigs at acceptable prices. Tui reserves are likely to increase as more wells are drilled, and the new wells will boost production quite significantly as they come on stream with initial low water cut.

Many areas of operations are under constant review, with continual improvements. The FPSO liquids handling increase is quite major, but should be agreed by the end of the year. Kupe facilities are being changed as better solutions are identified, which can mean increased capital costs to secure lower operating costs.

Asset sales by distressed explorers are likely to increase over the coming year, giving NZO some good options for its war chest. It is likely that there will be a couple of quite significant investments in a 6-12 month timeframe, along with other smaller investments (e.g. the new Canterbury permit) where they look particularly promising.

The hedging costs are more of an accounting issue than an operational issue. They relate to the hedging that was required by the banks prior to Tui starting, and the revaluation of the remainder of those hedges under IFRS. There is no current hedging, but there may be a hedging profit this year!

More than half the current cash is held in US$ accounts, in New Zealand banks. There is still $245M in cash, after paying off all debts.

Kupe gas price is secure. Cpi adjustments will take place, but reductions in oil prices etc do not threaten the Kupe gas income stream. But Kupe value is more from the liquids than the gas.

Little bottles of Tui oil were handed out, which was a really nice touch. I will treasure my bottle for a long time, as tangible proof of having had some part in actually producing something real. The oil is quite liquid after you have had the bottle in your pocket for a while. But if left out in a cold place for a while it becomes quite solid.

[Nitaa]

Thanks all for your valuable feedback.

Some very interesting points which many of us alluded to. Specifically thr strong position nzo finds itself amidst some concerns from other oilers who have assets but no money. I think if most shareholders can get their heads around this one then they will understand the potential.

Perhaps one on nzos biggest concern is the weakening of the nzd. Whilst its good to get revenue in USD when our currency is weak the opposite happens when we need to fund future exploration. Thankfully Pike, Tui and kupe are all covered while the nzd remained extremely high based on historical figures.

If I am not mistaken, AWE has signalled drilling in the tui permit or is this drilling outside the permit? If so its a high probablilty for drilling within the next 12 months to add to the tui reserves.

Digger also got it right when he mentioned nzo shareholders apathy for voting on resolutions. In saying that there is at least some resentment to help keep the board in check. What is needed is more shareholders to participate in these forums to share these views good or bad.

Once again, thanks to all who attended and provided feedback.

[Sehnsucht888]

Basically it was a good and fair AGM. For awhile before the meeting it looked like only 4 million of my proxys were to be allowed but Paul Foley fixed it up so that the one from myself and family also counted.Had approx 8 million in total voting against 5,6,7 and 8. Most of the against 5 came from me so i guess voters are wanting new blood. I am personally disappointed that directors have been allowed to hijack the ESOP and use it as their own piggy bank,given that the E stands for employee and none of the directors qualify as a employee. This year we faced two problems the first was that we all started too late in getting organised against resolutions 7 and 8 and the hugh apathy where less than a third of voters exercise there responsbility to get off there a---- and do anything.
I would definately say all is not lost as spoke to most directors and while we did not win this time our views were taken on board.TR is a cunning old fox and this will damping down the grab for next year compared to what would have happened if they went from here with a 100% acceptance.
A number of voters spoke in thanks for the two dividends and this getting something back has left many at the meeting feeling more favourable to the directors than us sharetrader grumbling lot here often express.A few shareholders had never heard of sharetrader.
As i was boarding the plane to return to Hamilton Scamper came up and interduced himself.He sat next to the ACC representative ---but that is his story.
Also met QOH Waaihoek and Unicorn. No Bermuda this year.
With some others spoke with DS after the meeting.He is definately clued up.Gave us some run down of the new Canterbury basic permit and what it could contain but until the drill is completed it remains just hope.
A point that came up several times is that with the dollar falling and expected to be more so in the furure we are still selling TUI oil at 100 NZ so still very profitable.Wrote down the figures but already can not find them.Thing it was about 18 dollars in cost and about 18 again in rolaties and again something like that in tax so the rest was profit.We are pumping about 34000 a day still .Also the drill for next year is getting far more likely.
Cheers for now.Digger

I was a bit surprise with what I think was supposed to be a positive example of the $ that make up a barrle of oil. As mentioned for a $120 barrle, $45 in profit, but a lot of other bits with lots of bits.
From what I recall - might be slight ly off, another:
$18 in tax
$16 in depreciation ??? What????
$18 actual cost.
$15 royalties to govt
$18 something else just above actual costs.

Not ratioing things that could be ratioed, this almost has 2/3rd of the current price is cost, therefore not much more drop from 120 and profits are tiny - which doesn't match up with what I though earlier...

[Sehnsucht888]

The chairman was holding approximately 100 million proxies, of which about 30 million were undirected and not more than 28 million against any resolution (working from memory here). That means about 10 million shares were voted by attendees.
\

That was enought to make the vote couunting redundant. Going for a full on vote, versus a show of hands maybe wsa the way to go for him. WIth that backup, who cares if 99% of the people there objected - they meant nothing - sad but true? Thats what the numbers point too...


I don't think much of Tony getting 250,000 discounted shares each year....
EDIT: Above should be David. Unicorn has quoted me,. So I'll leave this here for completeness

Also, - if the directors can't BUY shares on market - beacuse of all the inside info, how are they going to sell them?????

[friedegg]

I was a bit surprise with what I think was supposed to be a positive example of the $ that make up a barrle of oil. As mentioned for a $120 barrle, $45 in profit, but a lot of other bits with lots of bits.
From what I recall - might be slight ly off, another:
$18 in tax
$16 in depreciation ??? What????
$18 actual cost.
$15 royalties to govt
$18 something else just above actual costs.

Not ratioing things that could be ratioed, this almost has 2/3rd of the current price is cost, therefore not much more drop from 120 and profits are tiny - which doesn't match up with what I though earlier...
take it on the whole!!thats net not gross!!!

[Unicorn]

I was a bit surprise with what I think was supposed to be a positive example of the $ that make up a barrle of oil. As mentioned for a $120 barrle, $45 in profit, but a lot of other bits with lots of bits.
From what I recall - might be slight ly off, another:
$18 in tax
$16 in depreciation ??? What????
$18 actual cost.
$15 royalties to govt
$18 something else just above actual costs.

Not ratioing things that could be ratioed, this almost has 2/3rd of the current price is cost, therefore not much more drop from 120 and profits are tiny - which doesn't match up with what I though earlier...

The barrel diagram is on the website now, and relates to a NZ$120 barrel ...
$17 production (this is fixed and largely US$)
$7 marketing
$16 depreciation and amortisation (an accounting thing in reality, increases as production decreases)
$16 royalties
$19 tax (which allows imputation credits on dividends)
$45 profit

[Unicorn]

I don't think much of Tony getting 250,000 discounted shares each year....

That is David, not Tony. He only gets them because the shareholders voted that he should have them.

He has achieved more than I had thought, but much of it is not visible yet.

Regardless of that, I think shareholders set a dangerous precedent by handing out 250,000 shares a year to an employee. I would have been much happier to grant those shares next year - if one or two decent deals have been completed in that timeframe.

[manxman]

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- A draft report of the International Energy Agency's annual report said output from the world's oil fields is declining faster than previously thought, the Financial Times reported Wednesday. Wihtout extra investment, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1%, the IEA said, citing a draft. Even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4%. The decline will not necessarily be felt in the next few years because demand is slowing down, but with the expected slowdown in investment the eventual effect will be magnified, the report said. The IEA report is due out next month.


Not much to add to that.

[Nitaa]

Digger alluded to the same future problem as well. As long as oil becomes or remains cheap there will be less investment with alternative energy and investment in oil itself. Outcome? Serious consequences within a decade.

I posted a reference to China investing $292b in railroads alone over the next decade. Growth has admittedly slowed but is still at a crazy 9% which is still going to place a strain on resources in coming years baring a complete meltdown.

Interesting times ahead so all holders holds on to your hats on the way down as well as the way up.

[Rabbi]

Oil bouncing

...hopefully off the bottom :)

LEUM ($/bbl)
http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/markets/bl.gif

PRICE*CHANGE% CHANGETIME Nymex Crude Future67.364.637.3814:38 Dated Brent Spot64.553.495.7215:08 WTI Cushing Spot67.654.927.8414:28

[bermuda]

Digger alluded to the same future problem as well. As long as oil becomes or remains cheap there will be less investment with alternative energy and investment in oil itself. Outcome? Serious consequences within a decade.

I posted a reference to China investing $292b in railroads alone over the next decade. Growth has admittedly slowed but is still at a crazy 9% which is still going to place a strain on resources in coming years baring a complete meltdown.

Interesting times ahead so all holders holds on to your hats on the way down as well as the way up.

Thanks all for comments on the AGM. And Nita you have hit the nail on the head re China's railroads. Will keep Pike going strong for years. But the biggest positive news for NZO is the overshoot of the oil price decline.

The IEA ( after having its head in the sand for so many years ) has finally seen the light and what the consequences of a reduced investment in exploration will mean. NZO stands to soar back to its previous highs...and some,... once PRC and Kupe get rolling.Not sure about Canterbury. Good luck.

Was going to go to the AGM but Anthony Kim at Cape Kidnappers had more appeal. He will knock on Tiger Woods door. Back him to be in the top 10 of every tournament and you will supplant your NZO dividends.

[scamper]

EEEEks!
Digger: I would love to have had a chat while boarding a plane etc
BUT
it wasn't me!
i was in dunedin all day, never went to the agm etc etc.
i presume that you misheard the pseudonym -- cant imagine that anyone would pick my name to deliberately mislead...
anyway, thanks for all your work. cheers, scamper.

[the machine]

$16 depreciation and amortisation (an accounting thing in reality, increases as production decreases)

unicon, whilst not an accountant, have thought depreciation and amortisation are in essence provision for the cost of the asset [development] and replacement at some point in the future - basically for a company like nzo with positive cash flow it is building a war chest for the future with this money [which includes asset replacement once plant and equipment worn out and needs replacement] - the money is a positive asset on the balance sheet.

add to the profit of $45/barrel and one can see total $61 out of $120 is positive for company after outgoings.

M

[Snapper]

EEEEks!
Digger: I would love to have had a chat while boarding a plane etc
BUT
it wasn't me!
i was in dunedin all day, never went to the agm etc etc.
i presume that you misheard the pseudonym -- cant imagine that anyone would pick my name to deliberately mislead...
anyway, thanks for all your work. cheers, scamper.

Scamper/Snapper, do sound quite alike, I suppose. Maybe it was the noise of the howling Wellington wind. I was surprised at the one-sidedness of the votes, too. I get the feeling that institutional investors weren't too fazed at the directors fees or the ESOP.

One thing that I didn't think was discussed fully was the buyback plan. The chairman seemed to think that it was a bit on the nose to exercise options at $1.50 then six months later have a buyback at a much lower price. From my point of view (and I exercised options) I'm all in favour of the company (on my behalf) buying back shares from weak holders at a much lower price. As far as I can see it only strengthens my position as a shareholder. The BOD have to evaluate a buyback as an investment option much the same way as they evaluate any outside purchase - ie is it for the ultimate good of the shareholders.

[digger]

Scamper/Snapper, do sound quite alike, I suppose. Maybe it was the noise of the howling Wellington wind. I was surprised at the one-sidedness of the votes, too. I get the feeling that institutional investors weren't too fazed at the directors fees or the ESOP.
.

The real problem is that even if i heard correctly above all the other noise,i probably spell them the same.

[Rif-Raf]

Scamper/Snapper, do sound quite alike, I suppose. Maybe it was the noise of the howling Wellington wind. I was surprised at the one-sidedness of the votes, too. I get the feeling that institutional investors weren't too fazed at the directors fees or the ESOP.

One thing that I didn't think was discussed fully was the buyback plan. The chairman seemed to think that it was a bit on the nose to exercise options at $1.50 then six months later have a buyback at a much lower price. From my point of view (and I exercised options) I'm all in favour of the company (on my behalf) buying back shares from weak holders at a much lower price. As far as I can see it only strengthens my position as a shareholder. The BOD have to evaluate a buyback as an investment option much the same way as they evaluate any outside purchase - ie is it for the ultimate good of the shareholders.Agree scampi/snapper. I didn't think the chairmans address dealt with this issue totally satisfactorily. There is a big difference between an on market buy back and a compulsory buy back/cancel to all holders. If the shares are undervalue enough then should always be considered as an investment (on market)to enhance the value of the remaining shareholders.
His complete rebuttal did however indicate to me that there may be some big deals they are eyeing up which means that would want to hold on to every penny they have.

[Sehnsucht888]

Tony was quite clear that he thought a better way to enhance shareholder wealth was through using the money to buy into projects that would generate income and increase the share price, rather than using it to reduce the number of issues shares, and available cash with which to invest..

[Bixbite]

Tony was quite clear that he thought a better way to enhance shareholder wealth was through using the money to buy into projects that would generate income and increase the share price, rather than using it to reduce the number of issues shares, and available cash with which to invest..

.

Yes, during the World War II, the Japanese Emperor were in high spirits of its rising sun of flags were here and there. How about its people? Were they living well?

.

[Paddie]

Another rise in the price of oil overnight would I am sure be reflected in NZO's shareprice.

It will be interesting to see what the next few weeks bring, hopefully a steady climb back.

Paddie

[arjay]

Was there any discussion at the AGM re NZO's intentions for their PRC holding?

[BRICKY]

Just got back from the breifing in chch. David said Pike is not a core asset but no plans on selling anytime soon.

[Unicorn]

Was there any discussion at the AGM re NZO's intentions for their PRC holding?

The expectation is that the PRC stake will be held at least until it becomes an established producer. But Tony Radford did suggest that if someone offered a suitable price then they may sell - but it would need to be an attractive offer. There is a determination to get a good return, from a project that has caused more than its share of problems.

[Sehnsucht888]

.

Yes, during the World War II, the Japanese Emperor were in high spirits of its rising sun of flags were here and there. How about its people? Were they living well?

.

You completely lost me with this... I was commenting in relation to the previous comments of why a buy back wasn't being support by the board.

I think this refence is a bit off.... The Japanese tactics had many issues...


I simply expressed my interpretation of the reasoning at the AGM, and that I believe Tony expressed why he did not support it. I did not say I agreed or disagreed with it, I just gave a contrary position to the comment "I didn't think the chairmans address dealt with this issue totally satisfactorily". I felt he was clear on HIS reasons..

[dsurf]

(Reuters) - The growing financial crisis and plunging energy prices have forced oil companies to scale back spending and delay projects, with expensive ventures in the Canadian oil sands hardest hit.

Below is a list of projects that have been delayed or scaled back in recent months, as well as other related news.

October 30 - Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz): delays go-ahead decision for 100,000 barrel a day expansion of its Athabasca oil sands project in Alberta until industry costs moderate. It had been expected after the current 100,000 bpd expansion, which will lift output to 255,000 barrels a day, is finished in 2010.

October 29 - Thai refiner and petrochemical firm IRPC IRPC.BK: reviews a $1.5 billion investment plan. Has delayed a refinery expansion to 260,000 barrels a day and cut its run rate by 10,000 bpd to about 160,000-170,000.

October 23 - Suncor Energy (SU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz): delays construction of oil sands upgrader for C$20.6 billion Voyageur expansion by one year to 2013. Expansion boosts production from Suncor's oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, Alberta, to 550,000 bpd from 350,000.

October 23 - Petro-Canada (PCA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz): mulls deferring upgrader for proposed C$21 billion Fort Hills oil sands project to save up to C$10 billion. Move would mean partners build mine and extraction plant and sell as much as 160,000 bpd of raw bitumen into open market, starting in 2011. Decision before year-end.

October 23 - Nexen Inc (NXY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Opti Canada (OPC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz): delay decision on second phase of Long Lake oil sands project to some time in 2009. Expansion would double production of synthetic crude to 120,000 barrels a day. First phase cost C$6.1 billion and is now just starting up.

October 22 - Baker Hughes Inc (BHI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz): expects about 200 oil and gas drilling rigs in North America would be idled during the fourth quarter because of the tighter credit markets and the declines in oil and gas prices.

September 25 - Value Creation Group: construction of C$4 billion Heartland upgrader near Edmonton, Alberta, reported halted. First phase would have processed 77,500 barrels a day of bitumen into synthetic crude. Privately held company has regulatory approval for plant with 260,000 bpd capacity.

[Mr Tommy]

At the AGM there was mention of Kupe that even though it is considered a gas field, most of the value is in the liquids.
But when I look at the "Positioned for Growth" booklet I picked up there, the graph for Kupe shows the Barrel of Oil equivalent figures - first year it shows 0.6million for gas, and about 0.3million for oil, and this trend covers the first several years.
Does this mean the contracts they have with Genesis means they are selling the gas very cheaply, less than half the effective price of the oil ?

[sideline]

At the AGM there was mention of Kupe that even though it is considered a gas field, most of the value is in the liquids.
But when I look at the "Positioned for Growth" booklet I picked up there, the graph for Kupe shows the Barrel of Oil equivalent figures - first year it shows 0.6million for gas, and about 0.3million for oil, and this trend covers the first several years.
Does this mean the contracts they have with Genesis means they are selling the gas very cheaply, less than half the effective price of the oil ?

The comparison is by energy-equivalent, however gas is generally a cheaper form of energy.
I suppose it is because its' uses are more limited and it can't be transported around the world easily.
Generally you have to use it closely nearby of where you find it as transporting by pipeline incurs
high infrastructure upfront costs and there is no export option.
This could change if gas-liquification is used, however to make
that worthwhile the resource would have to be absolutely huge - generally I don't think this will be
economical for any NZ finds.
For the same reasons I think all the hype about CSG in NZ will remain just that - hype.

Maybe once oil becomes scarce enough that other energy sources MUST be substituted for it
the prices will equalize (meaning same energy content = same value), but that is not yet
currently the case.

[bermuda]

The comparison is by energy-equivalent, however gas is generally a cheaper form of energy.
I suppose it is because its' uses are more limited and it can't be transported around the world easily.
Generally you have to use it closely nearby of where you find it as transporting by pipeline incurs
high infrastructure upfront costs and there is no export option.
This could change if gas-liquification is used, however to make
that worthwhile the resource would have to be absolutely huge - generally I don't think this will be
economical for any NZ finds.
For the same reasons I think all the hype about CSG in NZ will remain just that - hype.

Maybe once oil becomes scarce enough that other energy sources MUST be substituted for it
the prices will equalize (meaning same energy content = same value), but that is not yet
currently the case.

Sideline.,
Remember when gas was flared. It is too valuable to do that now. Agree some of your reasoning but in the end CSG/LNG will be more valuable than sour crude. There are about 150 LNG tankers on the ocean...and another 150 odd being built now. Says it all really.

[Mr Tommy]

Sideline.,
Remember when gas was flared. It is too valuable to do that now. Agree some of your reasoning but in the end CSG/LNG will be more valuable than sour crude. There are about 150 LNG tankers on the ocean...and another 150 odd being built now. Says it all really.

It still is being flared at Tui - just a week or so ago there was a report in the paper...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4732766a6002.html

AWE has copped heavy criticism this year from Taranaki residents, oil workers and environmentalists for flaring off the Tui gas.
At the peak of production last financial year up to 20 million cubic feet of gas a day was being flared, and the figure is now 11 million cubic feet.

[bermuda]

It still is being flared at Tui - just a week or so ago there was a report in the paper...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4732766a6002.html

AWE has copped heavy criticism this year from Taranaki residents, oil workers and environmentalists for flaring off the Tui gas.
At the peak of production last financial year up to 20 million cubic feet of gas a day was being flared, and the figure is now 11 million cubic feet.


Yep, money down the drain. Plans are to pipe it ashore via the Maui field.

[Bilo]

Yep, money down the drain. Plans are to pipe it ashore via the Maui field.

B, the question came up at the Auckland Investor Presentation and DS's response was that it is reducing - the implication was that the Maui connection wasn't financially viable. The government seems to be the major beneficiary from Tui - perhaps they should return some of their tax take to compensate for changes in political stances? Now can you see Cullen doing that?

[neopole]

heres a question:
why cant they park a lng tanker ship or something alongside the umaroa to collect the gas?..... too expensive?

[neopole]

what about a floating gas fired power plant with floating power pylons back to shore?
or a floating gas to methanol production ship..........


ok...... crazy ideas.....

[Lion]

what about a floating gas fired power plant with floating power pylons back to shore?
or a floating gas to methanol production ship..........


ok...... crazy ideas.....

Oh, bring on the crazy ideas, Neopole, you never know when one might pay off.

However, I do know that liquifying natural gas is a hugely expensive thing to do, like billions of dollars, and not the kind of thing you can do on a small scale on a ship. But there is a good international market and demand for it.

What if NZOG and partners find heaps of gas off Canterbury and the oil shortage gets worse - could be viable then maybe.

Cheers, Lion

P.S. go NOG! up 21c in the last 2 weeks

[bermuda]

Oh, bring on the crazy ideas, Neopole, you never know when one might pay off.

However, I do know that liquifying natural gas is a hugely expensive thing to do, like billions of dollars, and not the kind of thing you can do on a small scale on a ship. But there is a good international market and demand for it.

What if NZOG and partners find heaps of gas off Canterbury and the oil shortage gets worse - could be viable then maybe.

Cheers, Lion

P.S. go NOG! up 21c in the last 2 weeks

Hi Lion,
Great news. The IEA is about to announce ( someone leaked it and they ain't happy ) that the world's oilfields are in a natural decline of 9.1% !!!! Far out. For the IEA ( who have had their head in the sand for so long ) to come out with this,, it is alarming.....Only a few years ago they were saying that Peak Oil was a myth.

This huge news for all oilers and whilst it will take a while, oil prices are going up. The world is finally waking up.

[777]

Bookmark it.

http://www.iea.org/

[Sumnerned]

Hi Bermuda

Thanks for early warning on oil decline. This could really set the cat amongst the pigeons as until now it has only been individuals who have claimed production is in decline.

I presume the 9.1% figure is per decade, as anything faster wuld be catastrophic.

Cheers

[Crypto Crude]

http://hydrogendiscoveries.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/international-energy-agency-global-oil-production-will-decline-91-per-year-with-no-additional-investment-in-production-and-struggle-to-make-up-for-this-even-with-additional-investments/

hey sumnerned,
No its 9.1% decline per year...
catastrophic, yes....

Recession will dampen this but markets are near lows.. (perhaps a double bottom or slight over shoot from lows)... but markets wont fall past that...
its just not possible... I will explain all in the 2009 general market out look and overview thread...

We had the warning signs when oil hit 140 US...
This will come back, and it will come back stronger...
We did not learn from the Asian Financial Crisis...
We did not learn from the (near) oil shock this year...
History repeats itself huh...

Bushs crude answer to $140Us barrels of crude was... "we will drill more wells"...
Crude dude.... 'we will drill ourselves out of it'...hahahaha...
Man, they will drill to China before they realise that mistake...

There are some too good too be true oilers floating around...
I seriously mean that... NZO is one of em...
NZO should be buying these other too good to be true oilers with Cash...
'brown paper bag' money...;)!....

catch yous all up...
yeahh ahhrrrghghhhhh...
We are going to ride a red bull (each), outta this bear market...
running of the bulls in Spain will be cancelled..
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

Bookmark it.

http://www.iea.org/

Thanks 777,
An historic bookmark of some significance.
We know not what we do.

[sideline]

IEA, that should read in the title



Thanks 777,
An historic bookmark of some significance.
We know not what we do.

For reference, lets just quote here the articles from the Financial Times: Frontpage::


World will struggle to meet oil demand

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas

Published: October 29 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 29 2008 02:00

Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de-mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries' demand will require investments of $360bn (£230bn) each year until 2030. The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.

The decline will not necessarily be felt in the next few years because demand is slowing down, but with the expected slowdown in investment the eventual effect will be magnified, oil executives say.

"The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that will need to be built globally to meet demand," the IEA says.

The watchdog warned that the world needed to make a "significant increase in future investments just to maintain the current level of production".

The battle to replace mature oilfields' output could even offset the decline in demand growth, which has given the industry - already struggling to find enough supply to meet needs, especially from China - a reprieve in the past few months.

The IEA predicted in its draft report, due to be published next month, that demand would be damped, "reflecting the impact of much higher oil prices and slightly slower economic growth".

It expects oil consumption in 2030 to reach 106.4m barrels a day, down from last year's forecast of 116.3m b/d.

The projections could yet be revised lower because the draft report was written a month ago, before the global financial crisis deepened after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

All the increase in oil demand until 2030 comes from emerging countries, while consumption in developed countries declines.

As a result, the share of rich countries in global demand will drop from last year's 59 per cent to less than half of the total in 2030.

This is the clearest indication yet that the focus of the industry on the demand - not just the supply - side is moving away from the US, Europe and Japan, towards emerging nations.

Investment is key, Page 8

[sideline]

correct: IEA, not EIA


Thanks 777,
An historic bookmark of some significance.
We know not what we do.

For reference, here is the article on page 8:

Investment key to meeting oil demand

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London

Published: October 28 2008 23:32 | Last updated: October 28 2008 23:32

As crude prices surged to an all-time high of almost $150 a barrel this summer, the warnings from those who believe the world is about to run out of oil reached fever pitch. Even members of the oil establishment began to agree with one of their main tenets: that the industry would have to invest huge amounts of money just to counter the steep production declines in existing oil fields.

In short, the industry had to run faster and faster just to stand still.

The anxiety about rapidly falling production increased as key oil regions such as the North Sea, Mexico and Alaska suffered large and unexpected production falls late last year and early this year as their old fields matured.

It was in response to these concerns – exacerbated by the fact that many Opec and non-Opec countries keep their decline rate data secret – that the International Energy Agency, the world’s oil watchdog, for the first time focused its flagship World Energy Outlook on the rate at which global oil output is declining.

The findings are critical because, as the IEA says, “future [oil] supply is far more sensitive to [production] decline rates than to the rate of growth in oil demand”.

The draft report has found that the planet is far from running out of oil, as some so-called “peak oil” theorists argued. But it also finds that output from the world’s oil fields, some of them discovered more than 30 years ago, is declining much faster than previously thought. That means the oil industry will need to invest more than expected.

“A detailed field-by-field analysis of historical trends and the prospect of a shift in the sources of oil point to a significant increase in future investments just to maintain the current level of production,” the IEA says.

The agency, using data for the 500 largest fields and extrapolating its findings to smaller fields, estimates the annual decline rate is 9.1 per cent, a figure that drops to 6.4 per cent when companies invest in more wells and techniques.

“More investment over the projection period [from 2007 to 2030] will be needed to offset the loss of capacity from existing fields as they mature,” the report says.

For example, it says the UK’s oil production from the North Sea will plunge from today’s 1.7m barrels a day to just 500,000 by 2030.

For that reason the IEA believes oil companies and oil-producing countries will need to invest a total of about $360bn a year until 2030 to replace falling oil production and increase supply by enough to satisfy the demands of emerging countries such as China.

Investment decisions by Opec will be critical, the study argues, adding that the share of world oil production from members of the cartel, particularly in the Middle East, will grow significantly, from 44 per cent in 2007 to 51 per cent in 2030.

“Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest oil producer throughout the projection period, its production climbing from 10.2m b/d in 2007 to 15.7m b/d in 2030,” the report says. “Its willingness and ability to make timely investments in oil production capacity will be a key determinant of future oil price trends.”

This is a stark assessment given that the kingdom has just agreed to cut its current production as part of last week’s Opec agreement to shore up prices.

Worldwide, conventional crude oil production alone barely increases, from 70.4m b/d in 2007 to 75.2m b/d in 2030, as almost all the additional capacity from new oilfields is offset by declines in output at existing fields, says the report.

Non-conventional oil, such as that produced from Canada’s oil sands or Venezuela’s extra heavy oil, is expected to play “an important role in counterbalancing the decline in production from existing fields”.

The global supply of non-conventional oil is projected to increase from 1.7m b/d in 2007 to 8.8m b/d in 2030. Canadian oil sands projects make by far the largest contribution, totalling 4m b/d.

But it is unclear how much of that increase in expensive non-conventional oil, particularly in Canada, will become reality, as the draft report was written before the worst of the financial crisis.

“There is considerable uncertainty about future cost, the level of oil prices to make a new investment attractive, changes in regulatory and fiscal regimes and the depletion policies of resource-rich countries to support new investments,” it says.

[the machine]

energy review headlines


WTI slumps, Tapis takes off
Exclusively for Premium Subscribers
(Friday, 31 October 2008)

OIL prices had a turbulent time this week as a rebound in global stocks spurred by interest rate cuts in several countries warred with ongoing concerns about fuel demand in the US.
Full Story...


M

[digger]

Hi Lion,
Great news. The IEA is about to announce ( someone leaked it and they ain't happy ) that the world's oilfields are in a natural decline of 9.1% !!!! Far out. For the IEA ( who have had their head in the sand for so long ) to come out with this,, it is alarming.....Only a few years ago they were saying that Peak Oil was a myth.

This huge news for all oilers and whilst it will take a while, oil prices are going up. The world is finally waking up.

bermuda that report was apparantly from an earlier copy that has since been denied and changed.Well that is the story for now but could change once the election is out of the way.
Digger

[bermuda]

bermuda that report was apparantly from an earlier copy that has since been denied and changed.Well that is the story for now but could change once the election is out of the way.
Digger

Hi Digger,
That's the whole point I was trying to make. Things have got worse since they did the first draft. Wait till you read the final edition. And this was from an Agency that thought Peak Oil was a myth. Well,... I ask you.

[duncan macgregor]

http://hydrogendiscoveries.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/international-energy-agency-global-oil-production-will-decline-91-per-year-with-no-additional-investment-in-production-and-struggle-to-make-up-for-this-even-with-additional-investments/

hey sumnerned,
No its 9.1% decline per year...
catastrophic, yes....

Recession will dampen this but markets are near lows.. (perhaps a double bottom or slight over shoot from lows)... but markets wont fall past that...
its just not possible... I will explain all in the 2009 general market out look and overview thread...

We had the warning signs when oil hit 140 US...
This will come back, and it will come back stronger...

There are some too good too be true oilers floating around...
I seriously mean that... NZO is one of em...
NZO should be buying these other too good to be true oilers with Cash...
'brown paper bag' money...;)!...
.^sc SHREWDY there are some good oilers under priced at the moment. NZO from a short term investment is not one of them, you gotta have the thrill of the drill. Oil will sky rocket next boom and bust phase in the market once this crash is over. I got the crash right, so lets see if i get my new investment right. I have started dribble buying CUE because of the drill factor, which should at least double my investment dollar at best, or hold its own at worst. NZO are into a consolidate what they have phase, making it a bad choice for a quick gain unlike cue who are up and at it. I have been right out the market this year, so this is my first choice in a slow return. Macdunk

[whirly]

Hi Macdunk

Interesting to see you buying in./ What indicators have gone off that have triggered this. I see oil as still in a downtrend and CUE itself still downtrending shortterm. Are the dead cat bounces over? And what sort of stop/loss have you used?

I put Cue on my watchlist end of sept. Since then its fallen about 25%.

Sure looks cheap but so do lots of stocks.

cheers
Whirly

[duncan macgregor]

Hi Macdunk

Interesting to see you buying in./ What indicators have gone off that have triggered this. I see oil as still in a downtrend and CUE itself still downtrending shortterm. Are the dead cat bounces over? And what sort of stop/loss have you used?

I put Cue on my watchlist end of sept. Since then its fallen about 25%.

Sure looks cheap but so do lots of stocks.

cheers
Whirly
Only dribble buying at the moment purely on a hunch using the over swung pendulum oil price indicator. CUE are over sold, with lots of immediate uptrend potential which places it high on my oil companies list. I lost nothing by being out the market this year, so its now time to dribble back bargain hunting. Oil will trend up nothing is more certain unless some new alternative is found, which will replace the increasing demand. I looked for an oversold oiler with immediate thrill and drill prospects.
Its a bad share to get out of in a hurry so stop losses are hard to set. I like a 5% stop loss until in profit then ease back but this one i will let run and risk egg in the face. Macdunk

[whirly]

Cheers Macdunk

Thats what i suspected. I value your posts and was surprised to see you breaking all your own rules at this point.

Oil prices could well be subdued for sometime if the US situation gets worse or is protracted as many pundits are picking.

I reckon theres another crash to come yet and all will be cheaper. I say this purely on a hunch using the over swung global index whirlycator which still looks to me as if shares, housing, commodities et al are simply returning to a more realistic trend over the long term.

w.

[Nitaa]

Only dribble buying at the moment purely on a hunch using the over swung pendulum oil price indicator. CUE are over sold, with lots of immediate uptrend potential which places it high on my oil companies list. I lost nothing by being out the market this year, so its now time to dribble back bargain hunting. Oil will trend up nothing is more certain unless some new alternative is found, which will replace the increasing demand. I looked for an oversold oiler with immediate thrill and drill prospects.
Its a bad share to get out of in a hurry so stop losses are hard to set. I like a 5% stop loss until in profit then ease back but this one i will let run and risk egg in the face. MacdunkMacca. I am very surprised and a little dissapointed. If yo uwork on hunches you will lose. hunches are for people with a bad back or who simple want to gamble.

You are preaching, "do as i say but dont do as i do". sharemarket is still in a bear market, oil prices still trending down and now you go dabble your feet.

Just my opinion, a 5% stop losss will spit you out in no time. The volatility will most likely exit you this week sometime. I have to say i find your logic hard to fathom.

Myself i dont use anything like your system. The only stock i brought this year was nzo the other day at 1.13. However i have got pinged with my option conversions so the last 3 months has cost me somewhat. Anyway each to their own

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, This has nothing to do with logic, systems or anything else. I have been right out the market this year as you very well know. I broadcast what i do when i do it. There has been no buys for me for ten months now. I have been abused for taking that position, now getting sneered at for dipping my toes in. CUE have some drills coming up, oil is in the doldrums which must reverse, CUE is the logical choice for me to make. NZO have no exciting prospects, its all wait and see, we know best.
Markets change, the market will go no where for at least a couple of years, simply because so many people have been burned in this crash that they are to scared to come back.
The banks having the deposits gauranteed will suck the life blood out the market, we are in for a nothing happening phase.
In the short term old macdunk will buy an occasional lotto ticket, and have a small wager on an oiler as he sees fit, and give you long term investors a bit of stick to bring you back to reality. Macdunk

[AMR]

MD may be right on the oil reversal. From charting terms it looks like it could go higher if it completes the H&S pattern.

[Sumnerned]

Hi Shrewd, thanks for the info.

It looks as though the IEA report doesn't talk much about new discoveries, but from my reading there hasn't been much of significance apart from the Brazilian offshore stuff which is neither really proven nor necessarily technically feasible.

So if even if we take an optimistic figure of 5%pa reduction we get down to around 64mb/d by 2015, and demand is expected to increase to over 90mb/d!

So when does the panic set in? Right now lots of experts are forecasting prices around $80, but they are either taking a very short term view, or think we can quickly convert to bio, shale, tar, gas, flying pigs etc.

Possible first date for panic Nov 12 when the IEA release the report?

Cheers

[Crypto Crude]

sumnerned-Possible first date for panic Nov 12 when the IEA release the report?

sumnerned,
In the short term, markets/and prices can be dictated by external forces such as traders and sentiment. The market is not dumb, so in the long run prices of oil , and sharemarkets will adjust accordingly and will settle in equilibrium. BUT, This Oil story is a whole new beast. There will be no long run equilibrium of supply equaling demand.
this is because we are dealing with an inelastic good that consumers can not substitute out of easily. (the perfect mix for oilers)....
On the other hand, Sharemarkets will adjust because indexes are trading at their very very worst case scenarios. EG priced at depression, when we are only in recession... We have seen lately that markets are rallying even when bad news is coming through (because it was already factored in)...
In the current market situation prices of everything are dictated by sentiment only.

We had warning signals when Oil hit $147. Remember that those high prices were blamed on speculators going long?
Going on what I have said, these speculators could drive the price in the short term but not in the long term. Therefore, there is still debate on why the Price's actually rose so much in the first place. This debate is why nothing has been done so we can change, and/or get ready for that future blow out, a real blow out !. 95% of posters on this site have called it right and understand the issue on why Oil prices are going much much higher (after market sentiment settles down)...Maybe even shortly we will get the first signs of oil booming. We cant predict the path to that future price, but we can clearly say that Oil will easily get to $200 US per barrel at some time. If Oil does start rising when the markets are going sideways then this is a clear signal to me of what is to come.... thats if it was not clear to start with...
thank you.
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

sumnerned,
In the short term, markets/and prices can be dictated by external forces such as traders and sentiment. The market is not dumb, so in the long run prices of oil , and sharemarkets will adjust accordingly and will settle in equilibrium. BUT, This Oil story is a whole new beast. There will be no long run equilibrium of supply equaling demand.
this is because we are dealing with an inelastic good that consumers can not substitute out of easily. (the perfect mix for oilers)....
On the other hand, Sharemarkets will adjust because indexes are trading at their very very worst case scenarios. EG priced at depression, when we are only in recession... We have seen lately that markets are rallying even when bad news is coming through (because it was already factored in)...
In the current market situation prices of everything are dictated by sentiment only.

We had warning signals when Oil hit $147. Remember that those high prices were blamed on speculators going long?
Going on what I have said, these speculators could drive the price in the short term but not in the long term. Therefore, there is still debate on why the Price's actually rose so much in the first place. This debate is why nothing has been done so we can change, and/or get ready for that future blow out, a real blow out !. 95% of posters on this site have called it right and understand the issue on why Oil prices are going much much higher (after market sentiment settles down)...Maybe even shortly we will get the first signs of oil booming. We cant predict the path to that future price, but we can clearly say that Oil will easily get to $200 US per barrel at some time. If Oil does start rising when the markets are going sideways then this is a clear signal to me of what is to come.... thats if it was not clear to start with...
thank you.
:cool:
.^sc
Shrewdy,
That was one hell of a post. You said it all. Well done mate.

And Summerned,
Great post. The IEA are really getting their tits in a tangle about this one ( the release ) far out. It's a complete 180. If the public get to know what's going on ...watch out.

This so so much bigger than people realise. Well done Shrewdy. Great words.

[digger]

Shrewd crude that was a top post. I am waiting with interest when the average joe on the street become aware of our oil situation.Actually apart from the few people i have forced fed on the PO theory i have never heard anyone on the street mention the subject.Contrast that with how readly one can hear about sports. When will the triping point kick in?????
Digger

[whirly]

Hey Macdunk

Not sneering over here - just happy to follow your earlier logic of staying out all together for now. Must be some money to be made though with all the volatility. Good luck with CUE. For me 8% in the bank and no effort required beats every system I've come up with this year.
Sorry its been off topic guys.

w

[duncan macgregor]

Hey Macdunk

Not sneering over here - just happy to follow your earlier logic of staying out all together for now. Must be some money to be made though with all the volatility. Good luck with CUE. For me 8% in the bank and no effort required beats every system I've come up with this year.
Sorry its been off topic guys.

w Hey Whirly what do you do when the 8% comes in like its done for me this year, do you stick it back in. or have a dabble with the profit?. I more than doubled my money on nickel, and uranium stocks stocks playing the game to its max before picking the market to crash. the market is going sideways for the next couple of years i am only having a thrill on the next drill which looks like good odds. Oil will eventually go sky high in the medium term so not much risk in buying an underpriced share in that sector. The share market will go no where, as long as the govt gaurantees bank deposits for the financial illiterates. I do buy an occasional lotto ticket as well which is a much riskier investment than buying a few CUE shares. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk-NZO from a short term investment is not one of them, you gotta have the thrill of the drill. NZO are into a consolidate what they have phase, making it a bad choice for a quick gain unlike cue who are up and at it.
NZO have no exciting prospects, its all wait and see, we know best.
Markets change, the market will go no where for at least a couple of years, simply because so many people have been burned in this crash that they are to scared to come back.


mackdunk,
I hope you are only joking by saying that NZO is not a good investment right now, or that they have 'no exciting prospects'..... hahahaha...
'consolidate what they have phase'....hahahaha....
what they have phase is going to lead to a 2-3 buck share on the downside 'phase'...
Lets quickly strip this puppy apart... lets forget about the short term...
As I have said many many times before, Timelines in the oil industry are of no use because projects get delayed, exploration drilling delayed, production startups always delayed, re-rating oil projects to fair value takes longer etc etc... therefore in reality --->no Oil investment is ever a short term play...
yes oil companies have short term activities...
and short term drilling... NZO on the other hand has short term large revenues, medium term major revenues and long term major revenues...
NZO is just in a different cycle compared to other companies...
that does not mean that NZO is a bad investment choice...
NZO is uncomparable to the likes of CUE (just yet)...in saying that CUE is on the same sort of path that NZO has created...multi developments, multi productions...etc...

This year has been 1929,1987... NZO has done very very well considering...

NZO really could rise a one bagger in a short amount of time with Kupe and Pike production looming... whats wrong with having a one year outlook...
on 30th Sept 2008 NZO had 286 million cash in bank...
plus its holding 81.7million pike shares, at $1.33 that is a further 108 million dollars..
pike shares plus cash at bank is worth 400million dollars...
market cap is 500 million dollars...

what value does that leave for Pike upside and fair value pike. what value does that leave for Kupe...

significant drilling program in Taranaki planned...
exciting Canterbuy Basin venture-> Barque...
3rd quarter 09 major Kupe Production... Pike with 50% upside to reserves...
Come on man.... give the punters a heads up...
NZO ran to $1.90 when you were completely against the stock, dont let yourself be against the stock when a run happens again...

When this is all over us oilers will look back and wonder if there was ever a market crash at all.... --->We lose time, we dont lose money...

Thanks for your support in these hard times mackdunk...
you have done very well for yourself...
as I said we will each ride a bull out of this, horse back style...
I will be sure to find you the tamest bull so as to not throw you off the saddle and in the arena for some horn on flesh action... hehehe...

NZO is still the most undervalued stock on the entire NZX...

mackdunk you also said that the Markets are going to go sideways for years.. you are most surely wrong with that call... I will explain all on my yearly outlook thread... We saw last week the DOW have its 2nd biggest one day rise of all time...
This is just a snapshot of sharemarkets coming out of depression status and into recession status...reality... expect some bottom trawling...
I called it awhile back--> The lows maybe re tested, and a slight overshoot...
7000-7500 on the DOW absolute low... if those lows were tested they wont stay there for long at all...

The crash is over... get set on positions like NZO NOW...
and hold them for one year minimum, and make 100%...
Short term acquistion possiblity...
Lets see a more proactive acquisiton path...

catch all you others up soon...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

HEY CRUDE ONE, First of all you tell me how silly i am for being out the market last feb or there abouts. Its obvious who got that one right. You then try to talk me in to buying CUE when it was 22.5c with me telling you to wait on a TA buy signal. You jumpted in with half your money in CUE, at an average of 21.5c where i got in with a little bit of bank interest at 13.5c so i guess it was me getting that one right.
I doubled my bank last year, am up for a gain of 8% this year with the profit riding on CUE at 13.5c a share. You are playing catch up mate, you will learn fast that you never risk half your bank on an illiquid share. You got to concede your ar*e is getting whipped at the moment by old macdunk. When any company with such a low turnover as CUE you can forget stop losses, you must read the market in advance of the action and be first to act.
I did have a look at NZO but think it wont move fast enough for me. The fun in this game is learnig to read the sign posts, picking the market by reading the commodoty charts, then jump in finding the company most likely short term to benefit. Oil is a decreasing commodoty with an over sold price in an under supply market.
Forget the stupidity of company worshippers, who ride a share down making excuses. The company to you and i is only a vehicle to increase our bank balance, nothing more than that. If you look at a long term chart of NZO you will see where a stop loss would have saved these people from their company worshipping selves. Macdunk

[Lion]

PRC and NZO trading near the same value again - fairly meaningless I know, but interesting

[Wiremu]

"The Law Of Expedient Genius - no matter how sudden, shocking, bloody, career-aletering, expensive, or ruinous a market reversal is - within a week there is no one who didn't see if coming."

Bob Hoye in Pivotal Markets 30 10 2008.

[Nitaa]

"The Law Of Expedient Genius - no matter how sudden, shocking, bloody, career-aletering, expensive, or ruinous a market reversal is - within a week there is no one who didn't see if coming."

Bob Hoye in Pivotal Markets 30 10 2008.How very true. There is one exception. Macca. He picked it but decided to stay in the market until feb (why didnt you apply a stop loss?). By that time a lot of the damage was done.

Just having a look at the Tapis prices it is showing it close to parity with WTI. Tapis at USD69.15 and WTI at USD68.07.

[duncan macgregor]

"The Law Of Expedient Genius - no matter how sudden, shocking, bloody, career-aletering, expensive, or ruinous a market reversal is - within a week there is no one who didn't see if coming."

Bob Hoye in Pivotal Markets 30 10 2008. I was telling you all it was coming all year and took a bit of flack for doing so. Remember a down trend leading to a crash after the olympics. I also told you before the event how i doubled my money in 2007.
WIREMU This is one guy not hiding behind a stupid name who says it as he sees it, not scared to get a bit of egg on the face. I only just re entered the market with Cue at 13.5c for a bit of fun, so keep an eye on that. NZO will track sideways along with the market which will be inclined to reach lower levels simply because of GOVT gaurantees on bank deposits to a running scared market. Cue at least are at an extremely low price with a short term high potential. Macdunk

[manxman]

PRC and NZO trading near the same value again - fairly meaningless I know, but interesting

Both within $1 of TEL. A bottle of single malt says that at least one will be ahead of TEL twelve months from now. Any takers? :cool:

[Nitaa]

macca. Its time for you to get your head out of the sand. I will give you that you picked a crash after the olympics. However you never tqalk about many of you faliures. Eg. your huge loss recently on the aus currency. Remember the aus was around USD0.94 and now around USD0.66 Thats around a 30% decline against the greenback. So your buying power overseas has deminished big time.

Your next failure is you got out of the market in Feb. In mid feb the nzx slumped to 3500 from 4250 at the begining of the year. you have already lost about 18% there. your lack of transparency is non exsitant apart from your so called sucesses. Basically i think you are full of crock.

ps. I gave you a pick of AWE when at 2.20. Shortly after it dropped to around 1.70ish but now around 2.60 This is a good time to gobble up on value stocks and imo less time spent on speccy's

keeping you honest. I will buy you a Tui light when i see you at the pub Your friend Nita.

[Nitaa]

Both within $1 of TEL. A bottle of single malt says that at least one will be ahead of TEL twelve months from now. Any takers? :cool:maybe 2 years but you may well be right. Tel has a lot of expenditure coming and their assets are deminishing. Selling their yellow pages was a sign of things to come.

[Crypto Crude]

HEY CRUDE ONE, First of all you tell me how silly i am for being out the market last feb or there abouts. Its obvious who got that one right. You then try to talk me in to buying CUE when it was 22.5c with me telling you to wait on a TA buy signal. You jumpted in with half your money in CUE, at an average of 21.5c where i got in with a little bit of bank interest at 13.5c so i guess it was me getting that one right.
I doubled my bank last year, am up for a gain of 8% this year with the profit riding on CUE at 13.5c a share. You are playing catch up mate, you will learn fast that you never risk half your bank on an illiquid share. You got to concede your ar*e is getting whipped at the moment by old macdunk. When any company with such a low turnover as CUE you can forget stop losses, you must read the market in advance of the action and be first to act.
I did have a look at NZO but think it wont move fast enough for me. The fun in this game is learnig to read the sign posts, picking the market by reading the commodoty charts, then jump in finding the company most likely short term to benefit. Oil is a decreasing commodoty with an over sold price in an under supply market.
Forget the stupidity of company worshippers, who ride a share down making excuses. The company to you and i is only a vehicle to increase our bank balance, nothing more than that. If you look at a long term chart of NZO you will see where a stop loss would have saved these people from their company worshipping selves. Macdunk

Mack 'professor' dunk,
You should have been an Texas Oil tycoon, you are a ruthless operator...
It was unfortunate that I tipped CUE when it was 21.5cents.... it was not my fault....In all respects though, had you held CUE you would have lost far less than most oilers... even the prolific asx oilers fell further...:cool:.... risk return theres nothing around like it...

Whats this im playing catch up to you?
Its quite the opposite really...you are playing catch up to me mate... Ive easily outperformed you over the last 5 years...my only losses in oil ever is CTP, CUE this year... and 500 bucks on FAR (that I can think of)... and a few plays in U that went bad... last year I tripled my portfolio...
you only doubled yours... went all in, or close to it on two occasions...
started with 3k it hit 40k last year... now its just over 20k...
Joe Kings story was even better again...

illiquidity does have plenty of advantages...
It can be very good when big announcements comeand there are no sellers... hehehe...

hey buddy, remember you said you made one hundred percent profit, and then you took 50% off the market and just played with the profits...
what did you do with those profits? MCR PEM?... hehe...
you shoulda had it in CUE instead... hehehe....
your mate shrewd keeping you honest...
:cool:
.^sc

[fish]

Kupe looks like being a prolific producer of raw Gas-its going to be piped ashore to a production plant and the valuable condensate/light oil exported.

Meanwhile Marsden point imports oil and amongst other products produces diesel-I think I recall they have problems with this being low quality/high sulphur .

I understand diesel can be manufactured by many different ways including from LPG . Does anyone Know if some of the Kupe products could be added to diesel or even used to manufacture diesel economically to be sold here in competition to marsden point and to add value to the Kupe product .
Incidentally I see also that Ford is bringing out a higher performance dedicated LPG engine-I think there is potential for increased use of lpg in transportation when we see the price oil resume its upwards path.

[fish]

Ford's Fully Integrated LPG Engine - E-Gas

While it may sound like a computer related stomach complaint, the reality of e-gas is a lot more pleasant! The Ford Falcon with E-Gas
is the only Australian built vehicle with a fully integrated LPG engine. The rising cost of fuel has seen car owners begin to search
for cheaper fuel alternatives. Unlike Diesel, LPG is actually cheaper than petrol for around the same economy AND you get a rebate
from the government in many cases for purchasing an LPG powered vehicle.

Cutting fuel costs doesn’t mean you’ll have to compromise on power either, a problem encountered by many ‘dual fuel’ users. Because E-
Gas cars are built to run specifically on LPG, the engine will always maintain a high level of performance. The Government recently
announced a $1000 rebate on every new factory-fitted LPG powered private car, so you won’t just be saving when you fill up your tank
- you save on the cost of your vehicle too!

With the advent of E-Gas you won’t have to fill your car from a deep fat fryer to keep it on the road - LPG is low emissions and great on
the pocket. Now, thanks to Ford Australia’s vision, there is plenty of choice too! The Falcon E-Gas range has recently been expanded to
nine model choices so whatever type of car you are on the market for- sedan, wagon, ute etc, Ford is giving you the option to save
money, keep your manufacturers warranty and be able to drive a safe, reliable, comfortable car.

Meanwhile, the Falcon Ute range continues to be the only range of utes in Australia to offer a dedicated LPG engine. The E-Gas engine
produces 156kW of power and 370 Nm of torque, and is available as an option on XL, XLS, RTV and XR6 models.
“The LPG-powered Ford Falcon is $13.73 a week cheaper to run than the petrol model, saving the owner $714.33 a year or $3571.65 over
five years.”
Sydney Morning Herald, June 30, 2008

[sideline]

Kupe looks like being a prolific producer of raw Gas-its going to be piped ashore to a production plant and the valuable condensate/light oil exported.

Meanwhile Marsden point imports oil and amongst other products produces diesel-I think I recall they have problems with this being low quality/high sulphur .

I understand diesel can be manufactured by many different ways including from LPG . Does anyone Know if some of the Kupe products could be added to diesel or even used to manufacture diesel economically to be sold here in competition to marsden point and to add value to the Kupe product .
Incidentally I see also that Ford is bringing out a higher performance dedicated LPG engine-I think there is potential for increased use of lpg in transportation when we see the price oil resume its upwards path.

I think Marsden Point has been specifically equipped to handle the cheaper more sulphur-rich
'sour' crude oils. That's why they don't buy NZO's 'light sweet' crude, that gets mostly exported
to OZ.

[JBmurc]

Ford's Fully Integrated LPG Engine - E-Gas

While it may sound like a computer related stomach complaint, the reality of e-gas is a lot more pleasant! The Ford Falcon with E-Gas
is the only Australian built vehicle with a fully integrated LPG engine. The rising cost of fuel has seen car owners begin to search
for cheaper fuel alternatives. Unlike Diesel, LPG is actually cheaper than petrol for around the same economy AND you get a rebate
from the government in many cases for purchasing an LPG powered vehicle.

Cutting fuel costs doesn’t mean you’ll have to compromise on power either, a problem encountered by many ‘dual fuel’ users. Because E-
Gas cars are built to run specifically on LPG, the engine will always maintain a high level of performance. The Government recently
announced a $1000 rebate on every new factory-fitted LPG powered private car, so you won’t just be saving when you fill up your tank
- you save on the cost of your vehicle too!

With the advent of E-Gas you won’t have to fill your car from a deep fat fryer to keep it on the road - LPG is low emissions and great on
the pocket. Now, thanks to Ford Australia’s vision, there is plenty of choice too! The Falcon E-Gas range has recently been expanded to
nine model choices so whatever type of car you are on the market for- sedan, wagon, ute etc, Ford is giving you the option to save
money, keep your manufacturers warranty and be able to drive a safe, reliable, comfortable car.

Meanwhile, the Falcon Ute range continues to be the only range of utes in Australia to offer a dedicated LPG engine. The E-Gas engine
produces 156kW of power and 370 Nm of torque, and is available as an option on XL, XLS, RTV and XR6 models.
“The LPG-powered Ford Falcon is $13.73 a week cheaper to run than the petrol model, saving the owner $714.33 a year or $3571.65 over
five years.”
Sydney Morning Herald, June 30, 2008

mmmm I think I'll keep my V8 fairmont ghia the NZO divies pays for all my fuel

[Mr Tommy]

Ford's Fully Integrated LPG Engine - E-Gas

While it may sound like a computer related stomach complaint, the reality of e-gas is a lot more pleasant! The Ford Falcon with E-Gas
is the only Australian built vehicle with a fully integrated LPG engine. The rising cost of fuel has seen car owners begin to search
for cheaper fuel alternatives.


Dont get too excited about a falcon running on LPG, from what I read in the latest NBR the Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore may be history next year - both manufacturers are in trouble and the costs of keeping these 2 regional cars is too high.

[fish]

Dont get too excited about a falcon running on LPG, from what I read in the latest NBR the Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore may be history next year - both manufacturers are in trouble and the costs of keeping these 2 regional cars is too high.

So what about nzo synthesising diesel-


DIESEL FUEL FROM BOLIVIAN NATURAL GAS BY FISCHER-TROPSCH SYNTHESIS USING NITROGEN-RICH SYNGAS

The Nature of Bolivia’s Hydrocarbon Reserves

Within the last few years, sizable reserves of natural gas have been discovered in Bolivia. These newly discovered fields, which contain some 55 trillion cubic feet of gas, have been valued at more than $70 million USD and bring the country's total domestic reserves to the second largest in South America. These new gas fields are considered "remote" because they are located far from large established markets, and transportation of this gas involves difficult economic, political, and social challenges. In July 2004 Bolivian citizens voted to establish a multifaceted national energy policy to help direct exploitation of these natural gas reserves. This new policy for the "industrialization" of Bolivia’s gas has several objectives, but among its principal goals is the utilization of this resource to satisfy Bolivia’s currently unmet domestic needs. Yet another policy goal seeks to develop and export some fraction of this natural gas (and products derived from it) under favorable economic terms.

In contrast to its abundant natural gas reserves, Bolivia has only modest reserves of petroleum. In addition to its being in short supply, Bolivian crude oil is "superlight" and not well suited to production of heavier hydrocarbon fractions such as diesel, lubricants, and waxes. For these reasons, Bolivia currently imports these products.

In summary, Bolivia’s hydrocarbon problems are two-fold. First, the country suffers from a lack of petroleum suitable for the production of adequate quantities of heavier liquid hydrocarbons like diesel. And secondly, although Bolivia now enjoys significant reserves of natural gas, it lacks the means of transporting this gas to distant markets.

The Role of Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) Process Technology

A potentially attractive solution to Bolivia’s problems is to convert its natural gas to liquids that are more easily exported or better matched to its domestic needs. In principle, this could be accomplished either by cooling and condensing the gas to produce "liquefied natural gas" (LNG) -- or by chemically converting it to higher-molecular-weight hydrocarbons like diesel oil. The latter approach is particularly attractive from Bolivia’s perspective, because it addresses both domestic needs and export opportunities.

Several processes exist to convert natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons; most involve the following steps:

generation of synthesis gas or "syngas" – a mixture primarily of CO and H2 – from natural gas, usually by reforming;

catalytic conversion of this syngas mixture to a crude liquid product, usually by Fischer-Tropsch processing; and

upgrading of the resulting syncrude to finished products like diesel fuel -- for example, by hydroprocessing.


Several companies have recognized the opportunity to build large-scale GTL plants in Bolivia, and plans for projects as large as 90,000 barrels per day (bbl/day) have been drawn up.

In a recently completed Proyecto de Grado conducted under the direction of Professor Edwin Quiroga in the Department of Chemical Engineering at USFX, students Simeón Ovando and Gonzalo Vara analyzed Bolivia’s markets for liquid hydrocarbons – both current and future -- with a view towards determining the size of a single, large-scale GTL plant that would meet demand a decade from now. Their analysis considered both projected domestic consumption as well as potential export markets. Ovando and Vara concluded that a plant with a capacity to produce 75,000 bbl/day of liquid hydrocarbons (primarily diesel) from nearly 800 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas would satisfy these needs, and they designed both the syngas and Fischer-Tropsch sections of a GTL plant of this size (1). Their design was based on production of syngas by traditional steam-methane reforming, followed by Fischer-Tropsch conversion to liquid products using an iron-based catalyst in a slurry-phase reactor (2).

The Rationale for Small-Scale Gas-to-Liquids Processing

Traditionally, GTL process technology has targeted very large-scale applications (e.g., capacities of 75,000 to 90,000 bbl/day in the studies cited above). This is because international markets for liquid hydrocarbons are large and because many of the unit operations involved in GTL processing (e.g., cryogenic oxygen production) benefit from improved efficiency when operated at large scale. That is, unit costs of production fall as plant capacity increases. Indeed, exploitation of economies of scale has been a dominant theme in the petroleum and chemical industries over the past half century. However, under special circumstances it may be desirable to design and construct much smaller GTL plants, and given new technology such plants may become competitive in the not-too-distant future.

Several factors tend to limit the optimum size of a GTL plant. Sometimes the factors are geographical, as when natural gas available in remote regions or even offshore would otherwise be flared; indeed, small-scale barge-mounted GTL plants are actively being pursued to develop this so-called "stranded" natural gas. In other cases, economic and social factors may determine the most favorable plant size; for example, investment capital may be limited, or environmental or safety issues may make it difficult to site a large plant. And finally, the accessible market for GTL products may be small in comparison with the size of a "traditional" GTL plant. Several of these factors pertain to Bolivia, where the domestic demand for diesel fuel is currently about 15,000 bbl/day (1).

Several hydrocarbon conversion technologies – for both the syngas generation and gas-to-liquid conversion steps -- have been developed in recent years that show promise for operating competitively on a scale much smaller than that for which most steam-methane reformers and Fischer-Tropsch plants have typically been designed. The more innovative technologies are in early stages of development and hence are rather speculative; these include, for instance, processes based on cracking of methane to an acetylene GTL intermediate (3), and ion-transport ceramic membrane reactors (4). However, still other GTL processes with potential for smaller-scale operation are less revolutionary and more promising in the short term.

The Project: Diesel from Natural Gas by Fischer-Tropsch Using Nitrogen-Rich Syngas

In recent years, Hedden, Jess, and their coworkers have proposed a novel concept for producing liquid hydrocarbons from natural gas (5-10). Rather than advocating the construction of very efficient but capital-intensive GTL plants designed to minimize energy and material costs, these investigators suggest that relatively low-cost (albeit somewhat less efficient) GTL plants be designed for situations where natural gas is far from large markets and relatively inexpensive and abundant as compared to investment capital. The GTL process that Hedden, Jess, and coworkers design and describe in considerable detail in their series of papers involves the following operations:

generation of syngas by catalytic partial oxidation of methane over a nickel catalyst using air rather than oxygen (thus avoiding a costly air separation plant that would operate efficiently only at large scale);

conversion of nitrogen-rich syngas to liquid in a two-stage Fischer-Tropsch unit consisting of multi-tubular fixed-bed reactors containing an iron catalyst; and

recovery of products – namely, gasoline, diesel, and waxes.


This simple process concept may have some potentially interesting advantages.

Hedden, Jess, et al. focus on the trade-off between investment cost and operating efficiency, and they identify circumstances where less efficient but less costly GTL plants will be more appropriate than more efficient but more costly plants. We go one step further and suggest that smaller-scale GTL plants based on the above design concept may be especially attractive in Bolivia, where both the size of the domestic market and the availability of investment capital are limited. Furthermore, certain features of the Hedden/Jess GTL process – for instance, its lack of a cryogenic air separation plant, the absence of syngas recycle, and the improved temperature control and less expensive reactor configuration made possible by the presence of heat-absorbing nitrogen gas in the Fischer-Tropsch reactor – suggest that this process may operate relatively efficiently at small plant capacities.

[fish]

[QUOTE=fish;231705]So what about nzo synthesising diesel-

and its not just Bolivia-
Natural gas is currently being used as a
feedstock for synthetic fuels production in
Malaysia, where stranded gas (natural gas
supplies located in areas where the gas cannot
easily or economically be brought to market) is
being converted to ULSD (Ultra Low Sulfur
Diesel, or Clean Diesel) fuel in a process that is
sometimes referred to as GTL (gas-to-liquid). The
Oryx GTL plant in Qatar is currently producing
34,000 barrels a day. Additional GTL plants are
being built in Qatar and Nigeria.

[Wiremu]

Macdunk,

I too made lots on trading Cue. In 1982 I think it was, might have been 1983. Price around the same as it is now, a quarter of a century later.

[arjay]

Back in 83' CUE hit $1. I remember cos they had a party and it made the TV news.

[duncan macgregor]

Macdunk,

I too made lots on trading Cue. In 1982 I think it was, might have been 1983. Price around the same as it is now, a quarter of a century later. Shares are about tomorrows market yesterdays market is over and gone. History is inclined to repeat is the only lesson thats worth taking. My best trades were always follow the commodoty price first the company price second. Oil is a commodoty under priced for the future supply and demand of the short term future. CUE was my company choice simply because of its future short term program and low sp. I can see CUE double its sp in the short term but fail to see NZO doing similar. In 1982 the market was in a great bull run every man and his dog was into shares making money up to the crash in 1987. We are in a crash trying to get out of it,fundamentals count for nothing, you have to pick the odd winner, before the herd spots it.
I really dont care if CUE survive or not, or if they are better or worse than any other company as long as wqhen i sell its at a profit. Macdunk

[STRAT]

HEY CRUDE ONE, First of all you tell me how silly i am for being out the market last feb or there abouts. Its obvious who got that one right. You then try to talk me in to buying CUE when it was 22.5c with me telling you to wait on a TA buy signal. You jumpted in with half your money in CUE, at an average of 21.5c where i got in with a little bit of bank interest at 13.5c so i guess it was me getting that one right.
. MacdunkHaha Macca, It was closer to April and we said have a short term play. Not buy and hold :p
anyway does this mean you have been buying? and does this mean you think the market has turned.:eek:

Im all for be nice to Macca week but reckon you should be nice to the one who brought CUE to your attention in the first place too ;) :D:D:D

by the way whats the story buying CUE. Uptrend is not confirmed. Volume is light and it HASENT HIT THE 30 day MOVING AVERAGE YET :p

[digger]

2. More project delays
Low oil prices and lack of credit are taking a heavy toll on the possibility that new oil production will offset much of the decline from existing oil fields. Last week there was a steady stream of reports concerning delays or cancellations of new oil exploration and production projects.

As many as 20 of the 100 deepwater oil rigs currently on order worldwide may be cancelled due to the unavailability of finance. Many of these rigs, which can cost up to $800 million to build, have been ordered on speculation by smaller under-financed companies. With oil around $60 a barrel, deepwater projects in the Gulf and off Brazil and West Africa are no longer economically feasible with deep-water drilling rig rentals running at $600,000 per day.

Executives from Chevron and ConocoPhillips told a conference last week that project delays should be expected due to low oil prices. The major, well-financed, oil companies have made it clear that they intend to continue with projects currently underway, but are becoming increasing reluctant to undertake new drilling until the global economy and oil prices stabilize.

Also at risk is further development of the tar sands where high construction costs have made new production projects uneconomical below $70-90 a barrel. Shell Oil followed in the wake of several other Alberta sands developers by announcing it was delaying the second phase of its expansion plans. In Brazil enthusiasm for rapid development of the newly discovered offshore fields has disappeared. Even in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait postponed plans to increase production at the Khafji oil field by five years.

As projects of this scale have long lead times, the impact of these delays will not be fully felt for several years. Most forecasts by those who understand peak oil say that world oil production should be clearly past peak and on the decline five or six years from now. If this turns out to be true, world production will soon be declining faster than previously thought.End


It just had to happen at the current POO. Know anyone looking for a rig???

[arjay]

Fairly predictable behaviour eh Digger? Just watch, next it'll be research into renewables that gets shelved and in a few years everyone will be wringing their hands again.

[Casa del Energia]

2. More project delays
Low oil prices and lack of credit are taking a heavy toll on the possibility that new oil production .....
.....It just had to happen at the current POO. Know anyone looking for a rig???

Yes, not unexpected.

Triple whammy for me.

1. (Of course) NZO revenue affected.
2. I have a rural property to electrify - was hoping for continuing mass investment in solar CIGS to ramp up production bring down prices etc etc.
3. The roads are clogged with cars again - (This is probably the worst aspect of low oil prices in my view)

Bring back the good old days of $147 a barrel - I loved it.

[duncan macgregor]

STRAT nothing at all to do with 30 day moving averages stop losses or anything else. My old mate SHREWDY and i have this on going battle to best each other. He tried to get me to buy CUE at 22.5 after he placed half his bank on it at 21.5c. I got in at 13.5c purely on a hunch using some of my 8% bank interest gain this year costing me nothing. Whatever happens i beat him on half his portfolio at no cost to me. I do think CUE is a good short term punt, and like the shrewd one stick it up in advance for the jackals to have a go if it goes wrong. A bit of fun is a bit of fun, nobody in their right mind would be in this market risking all their funds. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

what market crash mackdunk?
yeahhh hhharrrgghhhh we lose time... we dont lose money....
just gota get yourself positioned in the right stocks and then ka baam...
yeaahhhh hhhaaarrggghhhh....
Harry Markowitz introduced portfolio theory back in the 1950's.. his basic idea explained with mathematics was to construct a portfolio entirely from great risk returning assets...
I took it one step further and made my 4th bold move by going 60% all in... stuff this portfolio craap...
sitting pretty here...
aint no need to make this a me vs you thing...
I say this because you will never win... hehehe...
im thinking of the CUE to HZN switch after Zeus...
Later...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

what market crash mackdunk?
:cool:
.^sc Shrewdy do you know of another word to describe a downtrend from 21.5c to 13.5c in a couple of months?. I think crash sounds better than plummet but then the games have only started. The share market in general wont go anywhere until we get a few more wide eyed investors in so lets keep up the good work and show some of these company lovers how its done. The govt backing bank deposits along with the lack of financial education will see to that. Keep your buys public mate thats the only way to say i told you so later. Have you any NZO left or were you smart enough to have had a stop loss?. You were starting to sound like SNOOPY with your romance into CUE so i have been forced to show you how its DUN. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Mackdunk, your whole argument is in reference to a snap shot in time...
That little snap shot is your's to own for the moment... just remember my friend, that snap shot in time is slowly waining and will turn...
What about all the other snap shots in time?...
NZO ran from 1 buck to 1.80 this year...

you were well off the thread for a long time when that happened...


what about focusing on the new story, specs bouncing?

as I said...
I lose time, I dont lose money...
I only lose money if I sell a losing position...
its pretty simple really...
great stocks rebound earlier...
bleeting on about market this and market that is of no concern really...
21->13 is in the past mackdunk...its now 21c->16c... change your figures...

in the end I win... you just have the glory of your snap shot in time...
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

STRAT nothing at all to do with 30 day moving averages stop losses or anything else. My old mate SHREWDY and i have this on going battle to best each other. He tried to get me to buy CUE at 22.5 after he placed half his bank on it at 21.5c. I got in at 13.5c purely on a hunch using some of my 8% bank interest gain this year costing me nothing. Whatever happens i beat him on half his portfolio at no cost to me. I do think CUE is a good short term punt, and like the shrewd one stick it up in advance for the jackals to have a go if it goes wrong. A bit of fun is a bit of fun, nobody in their right mind would be in this market risking all their funds. MacdunkGood on ya but dont be tellin me at no cost to yourself :D

Money spent is money spent no matter how you earned it ;)

You once said keep me honest. Just doin my job:p

[Crypto Crude]

strat,
is mackdunk even posting any more?

you never know, he could have one of those peacocks (set on a timer), set in position over the enter button submitting the same old posts...
hehehe...
market this market that... we have heard it all before...
but in 5 years time I guarantee it mackdunk will still have that peacock on the enter button... we will never hear the end of 2008 market depression...
I dont think any amount of performance will shutt this cat up...
hehe...
its not so bad having mackdunk here though...
I just wish he would be more balanced, or wish he would become a ruthless oil tycoon... its one or the other mate...
later all...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

Thats fair enough STRAT but Shrewdy is becoming a worry with his attitude to only losing money if you cash up. The loss and profit is when you buy a share its todays value that counts, if you cashed out right now. The value of CUE to me is 16 c or roughly in profit 18.5%. The value of SHREWDIES CUE is 16c or roughly a loss of 25%. It depends on your window of time in other words timing is everything. The people that bought NZO at a dollar and were smart enough to time the market did really well. The people that paid money buying options converting and still holding are losers. Its all in reading the sign posts to time, and knowing when to exit your position that counts. I read the sign posts and got right out the market now is the time to look for the odd bargain, by timing my entry to whatever.
I pick with the northern winter coming on oil will uptrend in the short term. The best short term oiler i worked out is CUE which is a very illiquid stock hard to get out of if it goes wrong, so therefore its a punt not a system stock. I could buy NZO and stagnate for the next couple of years but thats not much fun. I am whippin your AR*E shrewdy keep them coming i will tell you what i buy when the time comes. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk...
lets leave the NZO thread for NZO...
Im sure of it that we will continue this on going debate elsewhere...
:cool:
.^sc

[Nitaa]

The people that bought NZO at a dollar and were smart enough to time the market did really well. The people that paid money buying options converting and still holding are losers. MacdunkMacca. I did both so on one hand i am smart and on the other hand i am a loser compared to your analogy. End result i am still extremely well in the money with my nzo investments over the last 5 or 6 years. On your side you got slammed dunked (or should that be slammed mcdunk) on your aussie currency in the last couple of months and your shares in jan and feb this year. all in all i think Shewdy has got you byt the short and wrinkly

[STRAT]

Macca. I did both so on one hand i am smart and on the other hand i am a loser compared to your analogy. End result i am still extremely well in the money with my nzo investments over the last 5 or 6 years. On your side you got slammed dunked (or should that be slammed mcdunk) on your aussie currency in the last couple of months and your shares in jan and feb this year. all in all i think Shewdy has got you byt the short and wrinklylol:D...................................

[Crypto Crude]

nita- all in all i think Shewdy has got you byt the short and wrinkly

thanks nita,
there are many paths to success... there is not one correct path...
Mackdunk just chooses to invest when the odds are in his favour of doing so.....
that does not mean that that path is better... in fact my path has been more profitable... that also does not mean my path is better than his...
Because eg, Mackdunk would have stopped me out on CTP, and AKK much earlier...
I, on the other hand need a good kick in the pants for getting back into the market disclosing getting out 3rd quarter last year... I did not know how to react...
you just got to learn these things for yourself...
there are guaranteed losses along the way... even mackdunk has had losses...(we wont go into that)...
many many many resource stocks on the ASX have fallen 80%...
consider yourself very lucky that you are holding NZO...
consider yourself lucky that you did not lose the entire investment... consider yourself lucky that you are in a good position to gain back all the losses and then some...
mackdunk should be giving it up to us... instead we get otherwise...
Ive come to expect nothing less from him...
my dad put 5k into a company called judge in 1987... and he lost the lot...
come on people? how many companies are really going under this time?
we have had a special crash... a crash so special that in a few years we wont even realise we had a 2008 depression (the way the market reacted)...

and remember, no path to success is right/or wrong... its up to the individual to determine their own destiny...
I can weather this... I (think) I can see what is coming...

get your red 'bull' ordered now, because they will be out of stock soon...hehehe...

read the peak oil thread... the hard facts are there...
good luck in these testing times as we gain back our losing positions...
later all...
Im out...
:cool:
.^sc

[dragonz]

Dear McDunck

Given that I am a new member I hope that you can take the following in good jest and assure you that I ask it in utmost respect.

Observation
You seem almost driven to convince follow members of your immense investment superiority.

Question
Do you have a ..... um ....:o size issue ;)

[Nitaa]

Dear McDunck

Given that I am a new member I hope that you can take the following in good jest and assure you that I ask it in utmost respect.

Observation
You seem almost driven to convince follow members of your immense investment superiority.

Question
Do you have a ..... um ....:o size issue ;)Dragonz. Very observant on both points. (nice change on the font size as well)

What is your observation on the current oil prices and demand. Expect more selling pressure short term then everyone caught with their pants down in a few years? Looking at future oil prices they are at a very significant premium which adds more fuel (no pun intended) to the fire.

Regards

Nita

[Rabbi]

WTI Crude Oil up strongly today at $70

Go Obama!:D

[dragonz]

Dragonz. Very observant on both points. (nice change on the font size as well)

What is your observation on the current oil prices and demand. Expect more selling pressure short term then everyone caught with their pants down in a few years? Looking at future oil prices they are at a very significant premium which adds more fuel (no pun intended) to the fire.

Regards

Nita

Hi Nita

Yep I think you may be right. Short term may well see oil hit $50 before $100 but long term who knows. I tend to be half-way between Skol and Burmuda (both quality posters) who whilst both on the opposite ends of the " Peak Oil Debate" make a lot of sense. Sooo many Variables (demand destruction versus emerging economies) and uncharted waters (alternatives and lifestyle changes).

[Mr Tommy]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) and Vector Ltd are pleased to announce that they have
entered into an agreement for Vector to purchase NZOG’s ongoing daily entitlement to
Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) that will be produced from the Kupe field in Taranaki.

The sales agreement is conditional upon the Kupe joint venture parties reaching a
satisfactory agreement on the operational procedures for each party to take or “lift” its
LPG entitlement from the field.

NZOG is a 15% partner in the Kupe Project. When Kupe begins production next year it will
produce sales gas (which has been sold on a long term contract to Genesis), light
oil/condensate (which will be exported from the Port of Taranaki) and LPG.

On a proven and probable (2P) basis, NZOG’s total entitlement to Kupe LPG is currently
estimated to be 165,000 tonnes.

The financial details of the sales agreement are confidential but Vector has agreed to
take NZOG’s LPG entitlement of approximately 15,000 tonnes per annum for an initial term
of 10 years. This term can be extended for up to another 5 years. The LPG will be
retailed through Vector’s subsidiary On Gas.

NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury said the sales agreement is a great outcome for
NZOG.

“We are delighted to have concluded a long term arrangement for the sale of our Kupe LPG
at competitive prices and with a highly regarded business partner.”

Vector Group Chief Executive Officer Simon Mackenzie agreed and said that the contract is
a valuable addition to Vector’s existing LPG entitlements at Kapuni, allowing Vector to
maintain a competitive position in the LPG market.

“This contract displaces LPG that would have otherwise been imported, with New Zealand
sourced gas; an important consideration at times of volatile energy prices and exchange
rates and concerns around security of energy supply,” said Mr Mackenzie.

[ritchie]

It amazes me how the share price remarkbly goes up just prior to the announcement...of course theres not insider trading.

[777]

It amazes me how the share price remarkbly goes up just prior to the announcement...of course theres not insider trading.

I think the price probably went up simply on the price of oil increase overnight.

[Nitaa]

It amazes me how the share price remarkbly goes up just prior to the announcement...of course theres not insider trading.
oil up 10% overnight. Dow up around 3%. Energy stocks were up around 7%. NZO opened up 7% and is currently trading at the opening price. Even if there was conspiracy and an insider brought prior the person has not made a dime.

[duncan macgregor]

oil up 10% overnight. Dow up around 3%. Energy stocks were up around 7%. NZO opened up 7% and is currently trading at the opening price. Even if there was conspiracy and an insider brought prior the person has not made a dime.
And old macdunk up 33% on the only share he bought this year. Come-on NITA give me a bit of praise for that aspecially after you shouted me down for buying CUE. Its all in reading the market you want to lighten up and try it some time. macdunk

[Nitaa]

oil up 10% overnight. Dow up around 3%. Energy stocks were up around 7%. NZO opened up 7% and is currently trading at the opening price. Even if there was conspiracy and an insider brought prior the person has not made a dime.Well Done Macca.

How much did you make in monetary terms?

You just keep on outdoing yourself.

[duncan macgregor]

Well Done Macca.

How much did you make in monetary terms?

You just keep on outdoing yourself. About 33% NITA . Its good to post when you do it, then sit back and watch the jackals circle for a feed for a bit of entertainment. Thats one thing my old mate Shrewdy and i both do, right or wrong say it as it is when you do it.
Nita fifty bucks is a high value for a poor man. A few hundred thousand bucks might only mean as much to a rich man I sit some where in between. Macdunk

[Placebo]

About 33% NITA . Its good to post when you do it, then sit back and watch the jackals circle for a feed for a bit of entertainment. Thats one thing my old mate Shrewdy and i both do, right or wrong say it as it is when you do it.
Nita fifty bucks is a high value for a poor man. A few hundred thousand bucks might only mean as much to a rich man I sit some where in between. Macdunk

Nice answer Winston. You may not have heard Nita clearly from your helicopter. She said `in monetary terms'

[Mr Tommy]

About 33% NITA . Its good to post when you do it, then sit back and watch the jackals circle for a feed for a bit of entertainment.

Err, I see the volume for CUE today is only 280,000 shares worth $50K - I dont think you can really be crowing about it just yet.

[Nitaa]

Nice answer Winston. You may not have heard Nita clearly from your helicopter. She said `in monetary terms'
lol. your correct. Like the salesmans who comes in for an interview and says he increased sales by 200% last year. When i asked how much sales he made he couldnt answer

[duncan macgregor]

Err, I see the volume for CUE today is only 280,000 shares worth $50K - I dont think you can really be crowing about it just yet. I understood the question. NITA really asked me how many shares i bought to which in a nice way I replied mind your own bloody business. I dont care how few or how many shares NITA has in NZO its his own private business. CUE is a very lightly traded company unlike NZO making it difficult to get in or get out in a hurry. Thats why you can forget it as a system company and play it by ear. Incidently my average entry price is now 14.5c up from 13.5c so work that one out. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

I understood the question. NITA really asked me how many shares i bought to which in a nice way I replied mind your own bloody business. I dont care how few or how many shares NITA has in NZO its his own private business. CUE is a very lightly traded company unlike NZO making it difficult to get in or get out in a hurry. Thats why you can forget it as a system company and play it by ear. Incidently my average entry price is now 14.5c up from 13.5c so work that one out. MacdunkYou bloody wus. I thought yo uhad bigger ones. I guess dragonz was correct.

again well done on another successful investment i personally think that 33% increase is too low for your standard but given the current econmoc conditions i give you another pass mark.

[friedegg]

so about how much is a tonne of lpg worth?i hope its more than iron ore per tonne if we can sell only 15000 a year!!

[Unicorn]

so about how much is a tonne of lpg worth?i hope its more than iron ore per tonne if we can sell only 15000 a year!!

Somewhere around $800US per tonne is a figure I heard.

[bermuda]

so about how much is a tonne of lpg worth?i hope its more than iron ore per tonne if we can sell only 15000 a year!!

I dont know what the actual price is but as a fuel it commands a premium. This is a very good little earner for NZOG.

[fish]

Somewhere around $800US per tonne is a figure I heard.

Am I correct in saying

1) Royalties are only 5% on this project
2) Production costs are minimal
3)Nzo should net at least 15million a year from the lpg alone
4) Reserve upgrades are likely

[bermuda]

Am I correct in saying

1) Royalties are only 5% on this project
2) Production costs are minimal
3)Nzo should net at least 15million a year from the lpg alone
4) Reserve upgrades are likely

Gidday Fish.
They are pretty impressive stats.

[sideline]

excerpt from CNN article about upcoming intelligence briefings for Obama:

A team of intelligence briefers has been named and is ready to discuss with Obama the Presidential Daily Brief, similar to the one provided to President Bush, says a message to CIA employees obtained by CNN.

According to McConnell's outlook, economic and population growth will strain resources. "Demand is projected to outstrip the easily available supplies over the next decade," he said at the annual conference.

The intelligence community's forecast indicates oil and gas supplies will continue to dwindle and production will be concentrated in unstable areas, he said. And there appears to be no relief at hand.

McConnell said studies have shown that new energy technologies -- such as biofuels, clean coal and hydrogen -- generally take 25 years to become commercially viable and widespread.

[sideline]

IEA predicts oil price to rebound to $100
Published: November 5 2008 19:01

Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.

“While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over,” the report states.

The developed world’s energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year’s $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today’s $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook has come to this conclusion largely because it believes companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the steep production declines of the world’s older fields.

“Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable,” the report states.

[bermuda]

IEA predicts oil price to rebound to $100
Published: November 5 2008 19:01

Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.

“While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over,” the report states.

The developed world’s energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year’s $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today’s $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook has come to this conclusion largely because it believes companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the steep production declines of the world’s older fields.

“Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable,” the report states.

Thanks Sideline. This is a truly amazing turnaround in the IEA's thinking. They did as Matt Simmons recommended. Do a detailed study of the world's top oilfields.

Let's hope the world takes notice.

[Crypto Crude]

fish-Am I correct in saying

1) Royalties are only 5% on this project
2) Production costs are minimal
3)Nzo should net at least 15million a year from the lpg alone
4) Reserve upgrades are likely

I'll add something to that...

5) the current market value of NZO suggests that Kupe is given a big phat zero...
:cool:
.^sc

[friedegg]

i think kupe may be slightly comming in to play because i got home and expected nzo to have lost yesterdays gains,lower oil price,dow and pikes retreatment but they did fairly well,and the low volume indicated to me that holders arent throwing them away on down days like last month

[Bob Marley]

Quote:
Originally Posted by fish
Am I correct in saying

1) Royalties are only 5% on this project
2) Production costs are minimal
3) Nzo should net at least 15million a year from the lpg alone
4) Reserve upgrades are likely
.................................................. .................................................. ..........

Fish mon,

1) My understanding is that Kupe is subject to 12.5% AVR.
2) Kupe is a pretty big project so I'd be surprised if operating costs were minimal.
3) The market price of LPG has recently plunged from around US$800/tonne over July/Aug to around US$500/tonne currently. I've seen long-term forecasts of between US$600-650/tonne. NZO's share of Kupe LPG is currently 165,000 tonnes spread over about 15 years. So gross annual revenue from the LPG is likely to be closer to NZ$11m pa.
4) Why do you think a reserve upgrade is likely?

[trackers]

Thats fair enough STRAT but Shrewdy is becoming a worry with his attitude to only losing money if you cash up. The loss and profit is when you buy a share its todays value that counts, if you cashed out right now. The value of CUE to me is 16 c or roughly in profit 18.5%. The value of SHREWDIES CUE is 16c or roughly a loss of 25%. It depends on your window of time in other words timing is everything. The people that bought NZO at a dollar and were smart enough to time the market did really well. The people that paid money buying options converting and still holding are losers. Its all in reading the sign posts to time, and knowing when to exit your position that counts. I read the sign posts and got right out the market now is the time to look for the odd bargain, by timing my entry to whatever.
I pick with the northern winter coming on oil will uptrend in the short term. The best short term oiler i worked out is CUE which is a very illiquid stock hard to get out of if it goes wrong, so therefore its a punt not a system stock. I could buy NZO and stagnate for the next couple of years but thats not much fun. I am whippin your AR*E shrewdy keep them coming i will tell you what i buy when the time comes. Macdunk

Whats your profit now? Keeping in mind that the low of the day was your average entry price, and is now the highest buying price

[shane_m]

Guys stop giving MD heaps, the poor fella might have a heart attack or something.

Anyway MD, your stop loss must have taken you out of CUE by now?

[Nitaa]

Guys stop giving MD heaps, the poor fella might have a heart attack or something.

Anyway MD, your stop loss must have taken you out of CUE by now?It stopped him out when it hit 12.5cps. he only has a 5% stop loss.

Anyone like to pick a low for oil prices over the next 12 months? My guess is USD38.00

discl. hold

[duncan macgregor]

Guys stop giving MD heaps, the poor fella might have a heart attack or something.

Anyway MD, your stop loss must have taken you out of CUE by now? SHANE No fears about a heart attack mate i love baiting the tall poppy bashers for ages. With an illiquid share like CUE you cant buy in or get out in a hurry its purely get it right or pay the price for being wrong. Bought at 13.5c then another lot after the making the average at 14.5 the price is now 14c on a real bad day so no worries. Drilling delayed hence the price drop along with a lower oil price. I look to the oil price to trend up in the northern winter which should lift the NZO sp up to a lesser extent. The thrill of the drill is delayed guys give it a few more weeks then see if i got it right or wrong. Macdunk
Incidently noggers the NZO is down right now 5.7% CUE is down 1.5% at the moment

[Nitaa]

Bought at 13.5c then another lot after the making the average at 14.5 the price is now 14c on a real bad day so no worries. Macdunk
Incidently noggers the NZO is down right now 5.7% CUE is down 1.5% at the momentMacca. Put your calculator up for auction on ebay. It defies logic and will be worth a mint. As of this moment your stock has crumbled 1.5 cps and that equates to 9.7% drop today alone. One thing you got right is the stock selling at 14.0cps.

Now Nita can see how you can make 200% gains on stocks in 1 day almost each day of the week.

What Sarah Palin is to the Republican party Macca is to the sharetrader forum. lol

[Major von Tempsky]

Now I recall Nita suggesting on this thread not very long ago that interantional oil would go down to $50 a barrel and other posters rubbishing her......

I see that Brent crude went down to $57 overnight so I think a few apologies to Nita are in order....

[AMR]

Yet NZO appears to be accumulated.

[gambier33]

Duncan

Thanks for reminding me that in "normal times" the price of oil rose as we went into the northern winter. I think you're right in anticipating that it may rise as we enter the coming winter. The last couple of years of run away oil prices was driven more by traders than by good old supply and demand. The price behaviour has been abnormal. We are now entering a more sober period.

Having been in the workforce from the 1973 recession, and every one since, I marvel at my capacity to get caught up in the irrational exuberance and lose sight of the fundamentals.

As a largely buy-and-hold investor (rather than a trader), I think that anyone holding oil and gas shares in any of the emerging producers (AWE, NZO, INP, BPT, QGC etc) will be smiling in 5 years time. QGC came in for me last week. I don't follow/know much about CUE but from reading your posts and getting a gist of your decision making process, I have no doubt you'll do well.

[Nitaa]

The sun still shines and the glass is half full

ps. I just couldnt stand to see nzo not having a post for 2 days. Go nzo.. im with you

[duncan macgregor]

The sun still shines and the glass is half full

ps. I just couldnt stand to see nzo not having a post for 2 days. Go nzo.. im with you Good on you NITA the blue eyed brigade go quiet when they are getting a hiding. You can always have a bit of fun having a go at me to keep them amused. Oil companies are only exciting coming up to the thrill and drill. other than that they side track for long periods of time. Keep me informed when thats about to happen then i might join you at a later date. Macdunk

[Mr Tommy]

Noggers should be thankful Tui is all paid off and produced a decent chunk during the high oil prices.

Not so lucky for those involved in Maari.
Similar size field, 50m barrels off Taranaki, peak flow rate only 35000, and their drilling rig costing a huge $500K a day, and now oil has dropped below $60.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4757777a13.html

[digger]

Noggers should be thankful Tui is all paid off and produced a decent chunk during the high oil prices.

Not so lucky for those involved in Maari.
Similar size field, 50m barrels off Taranaki, peak flow rate only 35000, and their drilling rig costing a huge $500K a day, and now oil has dropped below $60.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4757777a13.html

Your on to it Mr tommy.Was thinking the same thing myself.Not so good over at Pike where first coal coinsides with finanical crash.I had 1/3 million of them but sold out to fund NZOOD conversion at 2-07. Lost a bit with the conversion but less than with pike. But we sure were lucky with the cash flow from TUI as you say.
What has happened with oil now under 60 is for me unbelievable given a 9% world wide depletion rate being posted today or tomorrow. Guess the world can only think of getting through the hour and not think of the future.
Another area where we have fallen on good times is with the directors stting on there hands with acquisitions.What was a bargin last month will be a super bargin next month and a steal some months down the track.
Digger

[AMR]

Another area where we have fallen on good times is with the directors stting on there hands with acquisitions.What was a bargin last month will be a super bargin next month and a steal some months down the track.
Digger

Yes very good point digger. I was annoyed at the directors not trying to pick up cheap stocks last month but then I realised they aren't traders, they will probably negotiate something behind the scene. Looking to re-enter at some point very soon.

[Crypto Crude]

Noggers should be thankful Tui is all paid off and produced a decent chunk during the high oil prices.

Not so lucky for those involved in Maari.
Similar size field, 50m barrels off Taranaki, peak flow rate only 35000, and their drilling rig costing a huge $500K a day, and now oil has dropped below $60.


Hey tommy,
let me quickly explain a few things...

Maari will be a much bigger field than Tui currently is...
(there is abit more detail somewhere on the CUE thread)...
Maari currently has 50m recoverable...
but This is production from only one of the 3 formations in the main field...
And then we can add low risk Manaia into a tie in... and we can possibly add m2a formation, Mangahewa formation....
reserves will be much closer to 100m than 50m when this all comes through...
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3290/2737631524_abfbbb7874.jpg?v=0
the maui-4 well in 1970 as you can see missed...(manaia)
proposed drilling location 2rd quarter next year is to the north at the tip of the anitcline.....
low risk stuff here mate... hummm....
p10 of 30-35m recoverable...
p50 of 50m recoverable...

and then we add in Manaia, and maybe the other two formations to total recoverable...

Maari is just fine, We have a good 6 months off full field production... one recent article suggest Sept next year...we have time to see what happens to oil prices which should rise up...

Reading off the chart on the PPP presentation you can see that only 18m barrels have been produced from 50m barrels recoverable at Tui...
still 32 million barrels to come from Tui...
Roughly only 20% to a quarter of the Tui field has been sold at high/very high prices...
I'll put some seismics of the Matariki prospect up over the next week...interesting prospect which could change the whole project 10 fold...
... and hopefully we time full production into a new oil spike...
heres hoping, theres not much we can do about it either way....
good thing first oil delayed an extra 3 months...
out of our hands...
luck to yah...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

digger-Another area where we have fallen on good times is with the directors stting on there hands with acquisitions.What was a bargin last month will be a super bargin next month and a steal some months down the track.

This is why ive changed my sentiment on PPP...
all investors are put off by the fact that Pan aint doing much, and sentiment is low...I got ripped to bits on one forumn... remember what it was like on this thread last year before Tui production...?

This thread was in a state of war... sentiment was prodominately negative... Tui production kicked in and did not re-rate the company for 6-7 months... wow... what a prime time this is to start buying NZO/PPP over the next few months...

man... these are the times to get into great stocks when sentiment is low...(PPP)....
I read an article a few weeks ago and they were calling NZO 'market darling'...
get out your brown paper bag money and spread some love around...
:cool:
.^sc

[Mr Tommy]

Hi Shrewd, thanks for the extra info on Maari.
I cant find a CUE thread though on this site, I wouldnt mind reading up a bit more.
I hope youre right that in 6 months oil will have moved up, but nothing seems to be making any logical sense at the moment.

[Crypto Crude]

check out this page Tommy...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5040&page=9

I bought with anticipated production ramping up in September, but the weather has delayed the project until now... Drilling is about to start any day now...
this is the basis why I thougth the sp had low down and would have held up pretty well in the current market around 18-20c with production (even in this market)...
in reality the timelines were thrown out, and now presents real good entry points...
later...
:cool:
.^sc

[blockhead]

How much more depreciation in poo before oil co's start thinking it is better left in the ground until later on when the prices rise ??? I suspect that would apply to producing and exploration co's

[shasta]

How much more depreciation in poo before oil co's start thinking it is better left in the ground until later on when the prices rise ??? I suspect that would apply to producing and exploration co's

Problem is those in production have ongoing rig committments, secured at higher oil prices in a much more competitive environment.

NZO doesn't have debt which helps ease the burden.

[777]

How much more depreciation in poo before oil co's start thinking it is better left in the ground until later on when the prices rise ??? I suspect that would apply to producing and exploration co's

Blockie look back on page 430 where I suggested the same thing.

Macdunk replied to it.

But I agree with you. Maybe production at a lower level.

[winner69]

Shasta ..... can you get rid of that ACT hard man from your signature .... you know they are pack of pussy cats ..... your previous avatar seemed more representative of ACT anyway

[Dr_Who]

Shasta ..... can you get rid of that ACT hard man from your signature .... you know they are pack of pussy cats ..... your previous avatar seemed more representative of ACT anyway

LOL.. I think AMR has ROdney's face as his avatar. :eek:

[STRAT]

LOL.. I think AMR has ROdney's face as his avatar. :eek:Hey Doc,
If you come to one of the Auckland Sharetrader drinking sessions you can meet AMR and then you will be even more bewildered by his new avatar.

Bring back the tea lady AMR ;)

[Nitaa]

SC. I havent being following CUE however at 35000bpd extraction operating expenses is still less than $USD20 pb. So there is still a handy profit even at these levels.

If i recall the Tui JV secured the rigs for a bargain price of USD100k per day to lease the rig plus op expenses. The timing for securing the rig was impecable anbd if they had waited 12 months then they would have beeb paying 00% more.. Times that over say 7 years and the saving o the JV is over USD1b or or USD125m to NZO. Although we all would have liked to be getting USD150 pb for the first couple of years for tui overall the jv has done very well.

Some may be wondering why oil prices are plumeting. 3 factors come to mind. 1/ Obvious declining in demand. Not to get confused with supply. 2/ Traders. 3/ Most importantly inmo are the Hedge Funds.

Mamoth amounts of money are invested in these areas and imo are having the most significant impact on the drop in price of oil. It works both ways of course and this has added to the volatility of the commodity markets.

I would be interested especially from fundies or brokers on their thoughts with regards to hedge funds.

[OutToLunch]

This is an ominous read, and perhaps it's a case for the Tui JV to shut in some or all of their production for a year or two until the inevitable unfolds... 9.1% is an astonishing rate of decline.

http://www.postcarbon.org/nine_percent

I mean, why sell most of the oil now at relatively low prices when it could most likely be sold for much more in the not too distant future? NZO has a huge cash holding and no debt so the Tui cashflow could be eased right back for a while... call it saving up for a rainy day.

Not that I see NZO or most shareholders embracing this idea but if it were me selling a finite amount of premium-grade product, I'd be happy to wait for better prices in a year or three rather than pump it out as fast as I could right now when prices have fallen so far. OPEC are going down this road too.

[friedegg]

your going on as if theres no profit in it to still sell now for nzo?is awe the main operator in the same cash position to do the same?

[Sideshow Bob]

Agree OutToLunch. At the very least I hope they would be using prudence and taking the hammer off to sustain the field for the long term and maximum possible recovery.

Guessing that wouldn't be that easy to shut down all or some of Tui's production, as have a lease on the recovery vessel to trade off against. Also would have to get agreement from all JV partners.

[Nitaa]

I am with friedegg here. The next 10 years the oil price may continue to fall. In the mean time the jv are burning usd100k a day for nothing. In sayin that there must be a point even if still commercially profitable that they do shut down. I believe oil still has a long way to fall before the jv are in that position

In short, make hay while the sun is shining as the next 10 years we may end up with an average of around half the current price no matter how unlikely it is to occur.

[OutToLunch]

Yeah I agree, mine was a pretty simplistic view esp wrt. the fact that we have multiple entities involved, each with their own objectives and financial positions to consider, something I didn't mention above.

Yes Tui is profitable now and will still be at even lower oil prices, but I still can't help but feel that much higher oil prices will be here well within the next decade, perhaps even the next 2-5 years. Just as we saw an overblown (leveraged) spike to the upside earlier this year, I believe that we're now seeing an overblown (deleveraging) spike the opposite way. Meanwhile, if the IEA report to be released overnight tonight reflects the truth at all, the supply cushion that we now have thanks to the recession could well be shortlived as the world's major oilfields enter into terminal decline.

The Tui JV could cut production back such that ongoing costs are covered, but the bulk of the product is retained for better prices ahead... but then again we come back to the fact it's a JV rather than a single operator so I'm probably just flapping the old fella in the wind.

[Crypto Crude]

outtolunch-This is an ominous read, and perhaps it's a case for the Tui JV to shut in some or all of their production for a year or two until the inevitable unfolds... 9.1% is an astonishing rate of decline.

http://www.postcarbon.org/nine_percent

I mean, why sell most of the oil now at relatively low prices when it could most likely be sold for much more in the not too distant future? NZO has a huge cash holding and no debt so the Tui cashflow could be eased right back for a while... call it saving up for a rainy day.

Not that I see NZO or most shareholders embracing this idea but if it were me selling a finite amount of premium-grade product, I'd be happy to wait for better prices in a year or three rather than pump it out as fast as I could right now when prices have fallen so far. OPEC are going down this road too.

No need to shut down production. get into futures contracts instead as a hedge or to increase exposure to the upside...
In financial terms, a production shut down by halting revenues to take advantage of higher future prices could be achieved the same way as getting into a futures contract and go long. They could get into a contract where they could buy oil now for a fixed price with a settlement date in the future, and profit from the differential if oil prices are above the contract price...

I dont believe a forward contract would not work well because the contract price would not be adjusted enough for the future price (on big upside scope that many expect), but could be used as a hedge if prices fall further... these are the sorts of deals that should be made when prices are high..

In saying all of this "New Zealand Oil and Gas and Coal" is in the business of developing projects, and not in the business of getting involved with financial instruments. negatives of a futures contract---> unlimited downside.
Ive talked about the option to delay before, this is best used when companies are in pre development stage...

The costs of shutting production down at this stage would be substantial enough that heavy losses would follow...

stay away from financial instruments I reckon... dont shut production down I reckon...
chao...
:cool:
.^sc

[Rabbi]

Whatever the debate, in the present Global environment cash is king and NZO is sitting on a pile of it. Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year. It is pure speculation, even by the experts. Prominent economist, Nouriel Roubini predicts the whole situation to get worse and he was the one who predicted this fiasco in the first place. In his opinion, fiscal stimulus from governments, particularly the US, who continually lowered interest rates to keep the boom going, only delayed the inevitable and exacerbated the crisis.

The market is obviously rating companies on a debt/ equity/ cashflow basis hence NZO has not taken the same hammering as PRC. PRC's problem is the falling price of coal, no cash flow, and they have to find another $10m.

Most of the Aussie junior Spec Oilers have taken a hammering. One of the worst is BCC, down from 35c to 6.5c. Reason; bugger all cash flow, just borrowed $50m, and the price of gas has fallen out of the sky.
All those comapnies that were flying high on hype are now crashing on the
sands of stark reality.:eek:

[Dr_Who]

Hey RAbbi, you are scaring the living daylights out of them. Stop it! .. LOL

[biker]

Doom and gloom everywhere. EVERY commentator is negative about EVERYTHING. There is not a positive word to be heard in the market place. I think the bottom is approaching.

Doesn't mean to say we wont bounce along the bottom for quite a while however.

Unless of course, we have a paradigm shift, and the capitalist/financial framework of the world as we have know it is on the way out. Now, when have we heard that before?

[Casa del Energia]

Doom and gloom everywhere. EVERY commentator is negative about EVERYTHING. There is not a positive word to be heard in the market place. I think the bottom is approaching.

Doesn't mean to say we wont bounce along the bottom for quite a while however.

Unless of course, we have a paradigm shift, and the capitalist/financial framework of the world as we have know it is on the way out. Now, when have we heard that before?


Agree - it looks like the 'business cycle clock' is at 6 O'clock, doom proclaimed from every parapet, ramparts breached and strewn with the corpses of fallen traders, the apocalypse is upon us and the money traders in the temple have been admonished yet again - - - then chances are that we've hit bottom: MacDunks tide is almost fully out and he's strolling along the beach examining some very nice road kill.
So - we are talking NZO leveling out at 90c and PRC at 80c ? - that would be my guess.

[dsurf]

Agree - it looks like the 'business cycle clock' is at 6 O'clock, doom proclaimed from every parapet, ramparts breached and strewn with the corpses of fallen traders, the apocalypse is upon us and the money traders in the temple have been admonished yet again - - - then chances are that we've hit bottom: MacDunks tide is almost fully out and he's strolling along the beach examining some very nice road kill.
So - we are talking NZO leveling out at 90c and PRC at 80c ? - that would be my guess.

NZO bottomed at around $1.08 last month? Dow etc has retested major bottom overnight & bounced suggesting a possible bottom. Traders are talking oil has hit near bottom. This thread has become overwhelmingly -ve suggesting capitulation. OPEC panicking & will cut supply. Oil investment dropping suggesting tightening supply looking forward. Time to buy not cry

[Casa del Energia]

NZO bottomed at around $1.08 last month? Dow etc has retested major bottom overnight & bounced suggesting a possible bottom. Traders are talking oil has hit near bottom. This thread has become overwhelmingly -ve suggesting capitulation. OPEC panicking & will cut supply. Oil investment dropping suggesting tightening supply looking forward. Time to buy not cry

Personally, not really thinking negatively - just trying to make a little sense of these times. And perhaps a little wishful thinking - have been holding cash back looking for 'the right time' - - which is probably a foolish thing to attempt on my part as there is no predictability in this present world of chaos.

[dsurf]

Personally, not really thinking negatively - just trying to make a little sense of these times. And perhaps a little wishful thinking - have been holding cash back looking for 'the right time' - - which is probably a foolish thing to attempt on my part as there is no predictability in this present world of chaos.

May I suggest you use the VIX as a guide to when the chaos may be settling or moderating. Most economic commentators are suggesting bad news priced fully in however confidence (re buying support) may not appear til the banks etc stop reporting large losses & writedowns. Most are suggesting 1Q09.

[Casa del Energia]

May I suggest you use the VIX as a guide to when the chaos may be settling or moderating. Most economic commentators are suggesting bad news priced fully in however confidence (re buying support) may not appear til the banks etc stop reporting large losses & writedowns. Most are suggesting 1Q09.

I've never paid attention to it - but if you really think it's a useful indicator (for giving an indication of when the 'market' is calming down) I'll give it a go. Cheers.

[Crypto Crude]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=234175#post234175

Sweet revenge eah...
:D
.^sc

[Nitaa]

Maybe some or no one will agree with me here but with the price of oil continuing to fall it is making nzo look better and better. Sure it would have been nice to have another year of $100 plus oil prices but it isnt so. surely what must happen is consolidation where the weak dissapear or get gobbled up by the cash rich companies. The longer or further oil drops the less attractive the spec companies are. Lets not forget the cheaper oil rigs will become..

PRC is likely to get hammered or stay low for at at least 2 years and maybe up to 5 on the basis of lower demand especially if we have a long lasting recession or dare i say it depression. Kupe i think we are quite fortunate because we will have proven revenue that is tied into inflation.

On that basis, nzo has no guarentee short or medium term but if you are willing to hold up to 5 years or longer then i think your investment would be quite fruitful.

Question or views please. What do you think of nzo buying or partnering with the likes of awe, ppp etc into having their own off shore rig? Not sure what the cost is but if its within the reach then it would make a lot of sense especially if they want to make swiss cheese out of the taranaki and canterbury basin. In other words, why not look to buy or have a rig built for such a purpose. NZO if they arent already should look at both up and downstream opportunities.

In saying all that what is DS's vision or nzo's mission statement.

[sideline]

Question or views please. What do you think of nzo buying or partnering with the likes of awe, ppp etc into having their own off shore rig? Not sure what the cost is but if its within the reach then it would make a lot of sense especially if they want to make swiss cheese out of the taranaki and canterbury basin. In other words, why not look to buy or have a rig built for such a purpose. NZO if they arent already should look at both up and downstream opportunities.


If you buy a rig that can do all the jobs around NZ and AU you need to go pretty high spec because of
the deep waters around Barque.
At the same time that would be complete overkill for the shallow waters of Taranaki.
Better to stay nimble and hire rigs as required. Their day rates should come down
considerably with the sharp decline of the oil price from it's peak levels.