NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[STRAT]

If its who we think Dr Who is eh Strat...:rolleyes:Haha Upside_Oooooomop. The Jury is still out on that one but I know Macdunk well enough to be sure he aint the Doc :D

[Dr_Who]

Looks like NZO sp will come back down. Oil down and NZD up.

Crude erases gains as EIA forecasts lower prices

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures gave up earlier gains Tuesday that had pushed prices to a two-month high, after the U.S. government lowered its forecasts for oil prices, saying ongoing economic troubles will cut into demand.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-gains-us-stocks-rise/story.aspx?guid={0342347D-E0BC-493E-BE50-0428A1C56688}&dist=msr_2

[Sehnsucht888]

Looks like NZO sp will come back down. Oil down and NZD up.


Brent is up according to this, unless its not up to date..
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

With the DOW surging 5.8% overnight, that should also give things a bit of a lift.

[Nitaa]

Brent is up according to this, unless its not up to date..
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

With the DOW surging 5.8% overnight, that should also give things a bit of a lift.Tapis is the one that is most relevant which is currently at $50 or $NZ100

[Dr_Who]

US crude April futures down from $48 to $45.5.

[fabs]

Dr Who,
RE: ENJOY THE MOMENT
Is that not the case with every second of your life?

[Nitaa]

TA's are looking good. FA looked better at $1.13 Bigish sell orders are getting snapped up like hot cakes.

Dr. WHO's buying and Dr WHO's selling?

[Sehnsucht888]

Tapis is the one that is most relevant which is currently at $50 or $NZ100

Cheers Nita - that is also up (just) at $50 flat acording to my source.


Looking good so far today.

[Sehnsucht888]

Interesting, an undisclosed quantity buyer at 1.41, and undisclosed quantity seller at 1.42....

30,000 1 142
u 49,476 3 141
19,225 1 140
1,000 1 138
11,310 1 137
27,000 2 136
40,000 1 135
11,000 2 133
25,500 3 132
3,780 1 128
4,200 1 122
19,100 2 121
36,000 4 120
81,700 8 119
76,373 5 118

Asks
Price No. Quantity
140 1 3,100
141 1 25,000
142 4 u 57,901
143 3 69,000
144 2 14,000
145 8 113,700
147 2 60,000
148 2 35,000
149 2 40,000
150 2 16,200
151 1 3,500
153 1 1,600

[777]

I read it as bigger players in the game. I think that to be undisclosed that the number of shares has to be above 100,000. I stand to be corrected on this. It is a while since we have seen this on this stock.

[Dr_Who]

NZ shares are so illiquid. Every time there is a decent order the sp has a sharp movement.

[Nitaa]

NZ shares are so illiquid. Every time there is a decent order the sp has a sharp movement.
Yea its great isnt it? For the likes of me if i want to dump or buy 10 or 50k worth of shares i still can yet when there is a little interest like it has been the sp rises 20 cents in no time.

[boysy]

for those this could be of some benifit not all relating to nzog

THE multipurpose support vessel Geobay is back in New Zealand waters to help with maintenance projects at the Maui, Pohokura and Kupe fields offshore Taranaki.



The Geobay vessel

The 86m-long, 3502-tonne DOF Subsea vessel, which assisted with the installation of the Maari oil field wellhead platform last year, arrived at Port Taranaki on Sunday night.

It has since left the New Plymouth port on several occasions, returning each time in what could prove to be a two-month stay.

Neither Kupe operator Origin Energy, Maui operator Shell Todd Oil Services nor Pohokura operator Shell Exploration New Zealand has yet confirmed to PetroleumNews.net their contracts with DOF Subsea (Asia Pacific), a subsidiary of Norway-headquartered DOF Subsea.

However, PNN understands the Geobay’s jobs all involve routine maintenance tasks on the Kupe, Maui and Pohokura subsea pipelines.

It is known the Geobay will assist with the realignment of the Kupe products pipeline and umbilical along some of the 30km-long subsea route from off south Taranaki to shore.

It is understood divers will reattach some of the strops used to clamp the umbilical to the pipeline where they are not both buried in the same trench.

The Kupe project is only expected to take a maximum of two weeks, given inclement weather conditions, and will not affect the scheduled second-quarter commissioning of the $NZ1.2 billion project.

The Geobay is also understood to be involved in supporting some remote operated vehicle (ROV) and diver maintenance work associated with the Maui pipeline further south and the more northern near-shore Pohokura pipeline.

These tasks are expected to take a maximum of two weeks each to complete, if the rough weather continues for much of that time.

The Kupe partners are operator Origin Energy (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (15%), and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

The Pohokura partners are operator Shell Exploration NZ (48%), Todd Energy (26%) and OMV (26%).

The Maui partners are Shell Exploration NZ (83.75%), Todd Energy (6.25%) and Austrian firm OMV (10%).

[Dr_Who]

Oil prices slump below $44 on inventory report

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices tumbled Wednesday as U.S. inventories swelled with surplus crude and traders started to doubt whether OPEC would cut production further.

Benchmark crude for April delivery dropped 5 percent, or $2.37, to $43.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Energy Information Administration said crude supplies in the U.S. climbed unexpectedly by 700,000 barrels for the week ended March 6. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., expected a drop of 1 million barrels.

Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, said the most disturbing part of the report was that national demand for distillate fuel oil dropped by 6.1 percent. Distillate fuel includes diesel fuel used by trucking companies, miners and manufacturers.

"That's an ugly number," Kloza said. "You're not seeing commercial goods moved around the country like a year ago. And we were in a recession a year ago."

Meanwhile, investors are coming to believe that OPEC may not cut production when it meets Sunday in Vienna. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has already announced output quota reductions of 4.2 million barrels a day, and some analysts had expected the 12-member group would slash another 500,000 barrels per day.

Oil officials from Saudi Arabia have said that instead of trimming production even more, OPEC should focus instead on making sure its members are in compliance with the previous cuts, analyst Phil Flynn said.

Flynn said Saudi Arabia may not be interested in trimming production more if other countries won't do the same.

"Are the Saudis getting sick of carrying the load for the cheaters in the cartel?" Flynn said in a research note. "Are the Saudi's getting ready to break ranks and force the other members of the cartel to either cut back more or just shut up?"

Oil prices had been rebounding from a low of $33.98 a barrel in February as U.S. crude inventories dropped and investors started to gain confidence that OPEC's cuts would effectively balance falling global demand.

As oil grew to almost $50 a barrel, analyst and trader Stephen Schork said many investors started thinking about cashing in. The bearish crude inventory report helped them make that decision, Schork said.

"As usual, we've been buying on rumor and now we're selling on fact," Schork said.

Investors also were presented another batch of gloomy economic news Wednesday.

Chinese oil imports have dropped 13 percent in the first two months of the year, and are now at their lowest level in more than two years, analyst Addison Armstrong said. Chinese manufacturers are struggling, with exports plunging 25.7 percent year-over-year in February, Armstrong said.

Automobile sales also are plunging around the world, according to Vienna's JBC Energy said. "In February, U.S. passenger car sales dropped by 39 percent year-on-year, while sales in Europe also fell sharply," JBC Energy said in a research note.

The U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday that California, South Carolina, Michigan and Rhode Island registered double-digit unemployment rates in January. The national average unemployment rate was 8.1 percent in February, the highest in more than 25 years.

Elsewhere, Staples Inc. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter profit dropped 14 percent, though the results were related to last summer's acquisition of a Dutch rival dragged down results. Staples added that shoppers are spending less on computers, accessories and furniture. Sales fell 13 percent at stores in North America that were open at least a year, the company said.

Department store owner Neiman Marcus Inc. said it lost $509.3 million in the second quarter on a series of hefty write-downs totaling more than half a billion dollars.

And teen-focused American Eagle Outfitters Inc. said its fourth-quarter profit dropped 77 percent because of unplanned markdowns during the weak holiday season and a charge related to the declining value of some investment securities.

Gas prices dipped less than a penny to a national average of $1.938 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Pump prices are up 1.4 cents a gallon from a month ago, but they're $1.289 a gallon cheaper than last year.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery fell 3.2 cents to $1.2651 a gallon, while heating oil slipped 4.2 cents to $1.157 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery fell less than a penny to $3.834 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Brent prices dropped 59 cents to $43.37 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Associated Press writers George Jahn in Vienna and Alex Kennedy contributed to this report from Singapore.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[Dr_Who]

Strong sp in NZO have me thinking that there could be someone holding up the price. Me think maybe NZO is getting ready for a script bid for PPP? I am only guessing on this one. What do you guys think?

[Xerof]

Could be, but this is not new news - gets wheeled out every time there is a rise in the prices of NZO and PPP

[fish]

Tui continues to produce above expectations -with nzo share 900,000 barrels so far this financial year so with a little less than 4 months to go should be well above the 1.1 million .

Prices obtained slowly improving-06/03/09 US$48.31 NZ$96.14
27/02/09 US$46.63 NZ$93.09
20/02/09 US$47.14 NZ$92.12
13/02/09 US$49.50 NZ$94.99
06/02/09 US$46.96 NZ$90.99
30/01/09 US$48.31 NZ$94.91
23/01/09 US$46.01 NZ$86.81
16/01/09 US$47.43 NZ$86.74
09/01/09 US$48.23 NZ$81.50
02/01/09 US$39.83 NZ$67.99

Has anyone calculated how much cash kupe is likely to generate-?starting next quarter

[the machine]

Strong sp in NZO have me thinking that there could be someone holding up the price. Me think maybe NZO is getting ready for a script bid for PPP? I am only guessing on this one. What do you guys think?


nzo better be quick because after 6 more trading days ppp jump 2 indices into the asx300,thus institutions will be allowed [or better still compelled] to buy ppp.

5-10% of ppp could easily be snapped up as a result - thus lifting base sp to over 40c au

M

[the machine]

this might free up an extra hole for awe, inturn tui if origin scale it back to just 1 hole - the rig is kan tan iv


OMV pulls out of NZ block
(Thursday, 12 March 2009)

AUSTRIAN giant OMV has withdrawn from a large licence in the offshore Northland Basin, New Zealand, leaving Origin Energy to contemplate the prospect of having to fund and drill two wildcat wells on its own in late 2009-early 2010.
Full Story...

M

[Dr_Who]

I was thinking the same thing. NZO and PPP sp up maybe due to funds indexing.

[the machine]

The $1.40 resistance has well and truly been broken now and hopefully will turn in to support if need be. :D

Where to from here?


combined with last years final dividend then those who paid nz$1.50 last june are almost back in the money [less holding costs]

if opec cuts production again then that will help sp quite a lot.

will be interesting what happens next week assuming the nz$1.50 is reached - will people bail out or stay onboard?

bail out to what though?

M

[fabs]

Will some one please confirm when Kupe poduction suppose to comence!
2nd or 3rd quarter?

[Xerof]

http://www.nzog.net/Kupe

[Nitaa]

http://www.nzog.net/KupeThis is a bit outdated. If i am not mistaken it should be the 4th quarter

[Unicorn]

This is a bit outdated. If i am not mistaken it should be the 4th quarter

From the half yearly report announcement "Commissioning of the production facilities is expected to begin mid year with commercial production underway in the 3rd quarter of 2009"

[Nitaa]

From the half yearly report announcement "Commissioning of the production facilities is expected to begin mid year with commercial production underway in the 3rd quarter of 2009"
Actually i am being pre emptive. I am willing to put a lazy ten that it wont be up in running by the 3rd quarter. In any case, Kupe is going to be a great money spinner.

[Sehnsucht888]

You are sounding like you know something but don't know its source Nita..... Too many intoxicated nights?
Recent targets have all been hit haven't they?

[digger]

Actually i am being pre emptive. I am willing to put a lazy ten that it wont be up in running by the 3rd quarter. In any case, Kupe is going to be a great money spinner.
Not very scientfic reasoning i know but the market seems to think Kupe will be in operation by september. It seems to me that with 6 months to go prior to production the market starts to factor in some future income.I put NZO recent rise down to KUPE nearing production and starting to get factored in and that effect seems to get on the market radior with about 6 months to run.
This is not a lasy bet Nita but Mr market if you can find him will have you on.

[Nitaa]

Not very scientfic reasoning i know but the market seems to think Kupe will be in operation by september. It seems to me that with 6 months to go prior to production the market starts to factor in some future income.I put NZO recent rise down to KUPE nearing production and starting to get factored in and that effect seems to get on the market radior with about 6 months to run.
This is not a lasy bet Nita but Mr market if you can find him will have you on.

I guess the recent rise is based on some obvious increases in the dow and oil prices. I think more importantly that someone is building a little stake in nzo. The next few days or couple or weeks will give us a clearer picture.

Another significant point in my opinion is the decrease on interest rates. Investors are going to want higher but safe returns. Therefore the companies like NZO and PPP along with other companies with strong balance sheets are going to be even more attractive.

Infrastructure, energy and high yielding companies will likely to stand out in the current environment.

[Dr_Who]

Iliquid stock. It moves when there is an order. Once the order finishes the sp usually comes back down. Everyone is climbing on board expecting OPEC cut to boast oil price, but the fundamentals are telling us a very different story. World growth deflation will make sure oil price dont go too much higher.

According to analyst report NZO revenue should be down this year due to decreasing oil reserve. Gas revenue dont start till next year.

[digger]

I guess the recent rise is based on some obvious increases in the dow and oil prices. I think more importantly that someone is building a little stake in nzo. The next few days or couple or weeks will give us a clearer picture.
We are saying pretty much the same thing. I was just giving my view on why someone is building this important stake.Agree with all you said but it is KUPE now starting to have its beginnig effect with 6 months to go.
The recent rise will be very welcome by investers like FISH who were previously facing margin calls from leverage investments from the options conversion. In fact the margin calls have now worked their way through the system and that in itself will in the future be positive for the SP,in that a margin call is self defeating on the SP.

[boysy]

hector coming back into play ?


looks as though nzo and jv partners are starting to have another serious look at hector (PEP38483)again. Not only have the jv partners carried out seismic survey over 1100 km of 2D in nov/dec 2008.The collected information is being processed and interpretation of the data is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2009. The jv partners have also applied for a new acreage to the south of hector (PEP38483). Hector has higher leverage for both nzo and ppp compared to tui as their shares are 18.9% amd 14.09 % respectively. Could drilling take place in the 3rd Q 2009 on this prospect just after TUI near field prospects drilled in 3rd Q 2009.

[Dr_Who]

NZO sp going up is abit like having sex for the first time in your life, it usually dont last very long before it is all over. But then again, you know that you may get another chance for another go soon enough. Enjoy the brief moment of joy. LOL ;)


Will NZO sp come back down to $1.20 again? Oil price down and NZD up. OPEC will not cut production.

[Nitaa]

Will NZO sp come back down to $1.20 again? Oil price down and NZD up. OPEC will not cut production.Im thinking, will it go up to $1.60 within 4 weeks time? I think it could be a real shot. Dont say i didnt warn you

[croesus]

Nearer $1.20 then $1.60...........PRC will be a huge negative......

[the machine]

hector coming back into play ?


looks as though nzo and jv partners are starting to have another serious look at hector (PEP38483)again. Not only have the jv partners carried out seismic survey over 1100 km of 2D in nov/dec 2008.The collected information is being processed and interpretation of the data is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2009. The jv partners have also applied for a new acreage to the south of hector (PEP38483). Hector has higher leverage for both nzo and ppp compared to tui as their shares are 18.9% amd 14.09 % respectively. Could drilling take place in the 3rd Q 2009 on this prospect just after TUI near field prospects drilled in 3rd Q 2009.

the oil has to have migrated somewhere that side of the trough, but as regards drilling this year - doubt it as no rig available

M

[Nitaa]

I think i bring it up every year. The directors or senior management seem to be taken care of quite nicely when it comes to ESOP. This is a trait of TR im sure. If nzo was listed in the US they might be compared similar to AIG and others.

What goes around comes back around....Justin Timberlake's song about Britney

[Dr_Who]

The NZX SSH announcement is a complete disgrace compare to the ASX ssh announcement.

I can bearly read the NZX ssh notice. Looks like something the dog dragged it. :mad::confused:

[Xerof]

I can bearly read the NZX ssh notice. Looks like something the dog dragged it.

Seems to be affecting you Dr

[Dr_Who]

Seems to be affecting you Dr

Maybe the Macquarie website that displays it looking like dog tucker. :confused:

[winner69]

The NZX SSH announcement is a complete disgrace compare to the ASX ssh announcement.

I can bearly read the NZX ssh notice. Looks like something the dog dragged it. :mad::confused:


Dr .... register for MyNZX at www.nzx.com (its free) and clear as mud and all the stuff that is sent through to them (accounts, presos, forms, letters in full etc) are attached as well ... but only stay for 3 months .... pay and get longer

Just as good as ASX except that only access for 3 months but enough moan about tht eventually that might get better as well

[Dr_Who]

Thanks Winner. :)

[Nitaa]

FYI

Oil closing in on $50 but offset with the US currency at $0.5445

[boysy]

you have to wonder why NZO are carrying such a large ammount of USD wonder if any have been converted yet.

[777]

you have to wonder why NZO are carrying such a large ammount of USD wonder if any have been converted yet.

OK so what would they convert them to. I hope you won't say $NZ.

[zorba]

.
Oil Price pushes through US$50 / barrel ....... Hooray !!!

Looks like a pretty solid move with all the more expensive blends including Tapis and WTI well above US$50.

Look for a bounce in oilers with production and reserves ......

Z


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_J9

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

[Awamoa]

I hope they got some hedging in place while the $NZ was around $US.50.

[Nitaa]

New 8:30AM Friday Mar 20, 2009

A weakened dollar and evidence that Opec has significantly slowed production sent oil prices soaring to new highs for the year today.

Benchmark crude surged US$3.47, or 7 per cent, to settle at US$51.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"I think we'll see higher oil prices for a while," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "There's an expectation that the market has bottomed out."

Analysts rushed to buy crude after the Federal Reserve announced yesterday it would buy long-term government bonds, a measure that's expected to jolt the economy with lower rates on mortgages and other consumer debt.

[Ponda]

Just off the press. Always good to hear good news


NZO
20/03/2009
MINE

REL: 0920 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Taranaki Permit Awarded

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) and its joint venture partners from the
successful Tui oil fields development have been awarded a new exploration
permit in the offshore Taranaki Basin.

Crown Minerals has notified the joint venture that it has been successful
with a "Priority in Time" application that was submitted in November 2008 for
an area covering 3000 sq km.

The new Petroleum Exploration Permit (PEP) 51321 lies immediately to the
south of PEP 38483, which the joint venture already holds.

The joint venture partners and their respective shares of PEP 51321 are:
AWE New Zealand Pty Ltd 44.3% (Operator)
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd 22.7%
NZOG* 18.9%
Pan Pacific Petroleum* 14.1%
*Through subsidiaries

From analysis of existing data the joint venture believes there are several
promising structures which could contain oil and/or gas. However, over much
of the permit area no seismic data has been acquired since 1981 and no
exploration wells have ever been drilled.

The permit has been awarded by the Government for an initial term of five
years. In the next 12 months the joint venture intends to reprocess 800km of
historic seismic data using modern analysis techniques, and conduct
geological and geophysical studies.

In year 2, the joint venture has committed to acquiring, processing and
interpreting 200km of new 2D seismic data. A decision on drilling an
exploration well is to be taken at the end of the second year.
End CA:00177639 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2009-03-20:09:20:11




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[the machine]

I'm just a little surprised that there has only been a .01 movement so far today with the POO rising and the notification of the permit be granted. :confused:

Well at least the movement is up and not down I guess. :D

it was a friday so a lot of money goes to safe haven for weekend instead of risking tied up is shares


M

[Rabbi]

it was a friday so a lot of money goes to safe haven for weekend instead of risking tied up is shares


M

Short term traders usually square up on Friday, win or lose.

They can't predict what the Dow will do on a Friday, so it is usual for them to liquidate their position and sit out until Tuesday, when they have a clearer picture.:cool:

[Casa del Energia]

Brag time - 26 Feb "could oil do a steady drive to $50 over the next month?".
It is only the 22nd March and Nymex is 52 - ho ho ho.
Probably just dumb luck though - can't say that I'm really that precient.

[digger]

Brag time - 26 Feb "could oil do a steady drive to $50 over the next month?".
It is only the 22nd March and Nymex is 52 - ho ho ho.
Probably just dumb luck though - can't say that I'm really that precient.

That was a good call casa del Energia. I remember it and hoped for the worlds sake your call turned out to be right. It seems as always the world economies have over corrected after last july's 147 a barrel and now will slowly move back up. On the Aus trader site my est for WTI at year end is 65 so it is heading that way and for future supply i hope it is at least that.

[Casa del Energia]

That was a good call casa del Energia. I remember it and hoped for the worlds sake your call turned out to be right. It seems as always the world economies have over corrected after last july's 147 a barrel and now will slowly move back up. On the Aus trader site my est for WTI at year end is 65 so it is heading that way and for future supply i hope it is at least that.

Actually, the oil price has a bit of US inflation built in now that (they) have started printing money. Swings and round-a-bouts for NOG since the NZ peso has pulled up against the USD. Nevertheless, the real price for oil is back up - and you are right about the over correction - just hope it doesn't re-over correct. Don't need big swings at any time - specially now.
Recession part II is yet to really bite at the real bits of the world - but I still suspect oil will keep strongly rising - - as will food. (I think I put in $93 for WTI on your thread)

[AMR]

A possible asset for NZO to spend some of their war chest?

http://www.nexusenergy.com.au/assets/97/Files/697387.pdf

[Crypto Crude]

AMR-A possible asset for NZO to spend some of their war chest
?

hey AMR...
The CRUX project is a billion dollar development... and Nexus is trying to sell their 85% stake in that project......
I would prefer NZO to roll in JV's with the big boys on a reduced stake to reduce the companies risk profile, and become reliant on the big boys who dont stuff up easily... theres nothing wrong with being reliant on big fish who get the job done...
In the last few years, all the production stage failures were with smaller companies who couldnt resovle production stage complications...

...
I believe NZO have progressed down the right path through reinvestment back into future Oil exploration in NZ...
recent permit in Taranaki to the west of Maari, Tui Area, and Barque...
still plenty of cash in the kitty for company, project acquisitions....
very exciting few years ahead...

:cool:
.^sc

[arjay]

A possible asset for NZO to spend some of their war chest?

http://www.nexusenergy.com.au/assets/97/Files/697387.pdf

this would be more up PPP's alley wouldn't it?

[the machine]

this would be more up PPP's alley wouldn't it?

neither i reckon

instead invest in known acreage like taranaki or north west wa

expect maitland will be flavourof the month next year after large seismec processed

M

[shasta]

neither i reckon

instead invest in known acreage like taranaki or north west wa

expect maitland will be flavourof the month next year after large seismec processed

M

Not a sausage on here about NZO emptying out the petty cash jar?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADX&E=ASX&N=442161

[777]

Two announcements today for NZO on ASX that did not make the NZX. One at 11.45am and the second at 2.23pm Australian time.

Someone needs a kick in the old proverbial.

[shasta]

Two announcements today for NZO on ASX that did not make the NZX. One at 11.45am and the second at 2.23pm Australian time.

Someone needs a kick in the old proverbial.

Thats poor by even NZX's sloppy standards...:o

[the machine]

Two announcements today for NZO on ASX that did not make the NZX. One at 11.45am and the second at 2.23pm Australian time.

Someone needs a kick in the old proverbial.


the second announcement details payment E235,000 to be made upon reaching certain milestones, but without detailing them.

AMI = AREA mutual interest

My guess on the milestones is first payment upon submitting an application and a second payment upon being awarded a permit [perhaps reletive to size of permit]
And basically is reimbursing KIK for their costs.

What do nzo get for the money?
A data base on accumulated research over a year.

DS certainly would know all about OMV having to divest their assets in Romania

All in all looks like a very cost effective step into very prospective area.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ADX&E=ASX&N=442161

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00940717


M

[777]

A quick look at NZOG's website doesn't show anything either.

[the machine]

A quick look at NZOG's website doesn't show anything either.

try google AMI Romania and OMV Romania


M

[digger]

try google AMI Romania and OMV Romania


M

DS did say that NZ might be too small for NZO. This is high stake stuff that i find a bit scarry.We still have a lot of unfinished business in NZ to sort out and playing it safe that is what i would have done.The finanical melt down has thrown up a lot of opportunies,so lets hope they really have done there homework on this one and it turns out a good deal.Some of this far off arrangements end up with hidden cost or cultural inconveiences that were not understood beforehand.These are unique times and that NZO cash does talk but i find my toes are crossed. Certainly the buying into PPP was understandable for NZO but how will this one pan out.
I am completely in the dark about Kairiki and this Romanian AMI thing that cost $A454000.In fact i do not know whether to laugh or cry. Maybe tomorrow some info will flow from NZO.Soon we will have to rename the company NZOWI--NZO world wide Investments.

[the machine]

DS did say that NZ might be too small for NZO. This is high stake stuff that i find a bit scarry.We still have a lot of unfinished business in NZ to sort out and playing it safe that is what i would have done.The finanical melt down has thrown up a lot of opportunies,so lets hope they really have done there homework on this one and it turns out a good deal.Some of this far off arrangements end up with hidden cost or cultural inconveiences that were not understood beforehand.These are unique times and that NZO cash does talk but i find my toes are crossed. Certainly the buying into PPP was understandable for NZO but how will this one pan out.
I am completely in the dark about Kairiki and this Romanian AMI thing that cost $A454000.In fact i do not know whether to laugh or cry. Maybe tomorrow some info will flow from NZO.Soon we will have to rename the company NZOWI--NZO world wide Investments.

would not put it as high stakes


apparently OMV have to divest their acreage and next bidding round expected mid year to close in october - said bidding round to maybe include developed acreage along with good exploaration acreage

again DS should know all about OMV since he was the CEO for a time

M

[digger]

would not put it as high stakes


apparently OMV have to divest their acreage and next bidding round expected mid year to close in october - said bidding round to maybe include developed acreage along with good exploaration acreage

again DS should know all about OMV since he was the CEO for a time

M

Thanks for that Machine. I like it when people are functioning inside there comfort zone,and as you say DS would know about OMV as he was there CEO. For me i am just a little nervious about NZO going to far flung places so soon after getting some money. Let us not forget NZO had nil revenue for about 6 years.I now prefer a slow and steady rise,but i am aware that many companies are facing finanical obligations for top projects that they can not now meet.DS must now feel the opportunity are too good to pass by.
Still your comments Machine that DS was the CEO of OMV is comforting.
We should get some more detailed news today.
Cheers

[digger]

would not put it as high stakes

M

After going away and thinking about it THE MACHINE I would definately say it is in fact high stakes. Most things with high stakes start with innicoent beginnings.I will never forget the arguement had many decades ago about the introduction of the DPB.At the time it was only a very few women who would ever take it up so i was told.But as too often happens my imagined worse case scenario is the final outcome.
Investing money overseas in far flung projects will end up with many now hidden costs.This thinking must be built into the risk reward balance at the outset.While i am a little nervious i do like the rational that you expand exactaly when the rest of the world is largely shutting up shop in the oil exploration and development.So you see i am sitting on the fence with this one.Will it have big benifits for NZO or is it thin ice?
No report from NZO so far today.

[shasta]

After going away and thinking about it THE MACHINE I would definately say it is in fact high stakes. Most things with high stakes start with innicoent beginnings.I will never forget the arguement had many decades ago about the introduction of the DPB.At the time it was only a very few women who would ever take it up so i was told.But as too often happens my imagined worse case scenario is the final outcome.
Investing money overseas in far flung projects will end up with many now hidden costs.This thinking must be built into the risk reward balance at the outset.While i am a little nervious i do like the rational that you expand exactaly when the rest of the world is largely shutting up shop in the oil exploration and development.So you see i am sitting on the fence with this one.Will it have big benifits for NZO or is it thin ice?
No report from NZO so far today.

Your concern is warranted, just look at BPT as an example of Management trying to grow in far away places, & be seen jumping on opportunities.

At least NZO were sensible & the amount potentially payable is minimal.

Shows me at least, they aren't hell bent on PPP at any cost, which is a good thing!

[fish]

After going away and thinking about it THE MACHINE I would definately say it is in fact high stakes. Most things with high stakes start with innicoent beginnings.I will never forget the arguement had many decades ago about the introduction of the DPB.At the time it was only a very few women who would ever take it up so i was told.But as too often happens my imagined worse case scenario is the final outcome.
Investing money overseas in far flung projects will end up with many now hidden costs.This thinking must be built into the risk reward balance at the outset.While i am a little nervious i do like the rational that you expand exactaly when the rest of the world is largely shutting up shop in the oil exploration and development.So you see i am sitting on the fence with this one.Will it have big benifits for NZO or is it thin ice?
No report from NZO so far today.

Could be our dividend gone-in which case I will have to start selling my stake .
This is the very last thing I wanted for nzo .

[shasta]

Could be our dividend gone-in which case I will have to start selling my stake .
This is the very last thing I wanted for nzo .

The actual costs involved at this stage are <$NZ1m...

The receptionist probably used the snack box money...:D

I'm not too concerned

[boysy]

AUDAX Resources believes it is in a strong position to bid for highly prospective exploration and development acreage in Romania after New Zealand Oil & Gas joined the company’s Romanian area of mutual interest agreement.



Map of Eastern Europe showing Romanian oil and gas fields

The company said NZOG became a partner after it bought Kairiki Energy’s 33.33% interest in the AMI for 235,000 euros ($A454,000). This is payable on certain milestones being achieved.

NZOG is a diversified upstream energy company with production, development and exploration in New Zealand.

The company is debt free and has a war chest of almost $NZ212 million ($A175 million).

Chief executive officer David Salisbury has an extensive European network of contacts from his time with OMV, Austria’s largest and one of Europe’s leading oil and gas corporations.

“With NZOG and Nexus Energy as partners backing the AMI, Audax is in a very strong position to successfully bid for highly prospective Romanian exploration and development acreage in the upcoming large and historically unique relinquishment of Petrom and Romgaz licences,” the company said.

OMV-controlled Petrom and Romgaz are the largest licence holders and oil and gas producers in Romania.

Audax said the since the AMI in 2007, the company has compiled a large database and identified promising areas within Petrom and Romgaz’s licences.

Meanwhile, Kairiki Energy said it had sold its interests in the Pantelleria and Kerkouane permits in the Sicily Channel to AuDAX Resources in an effort to cut exploration costs and maintain cash reserves.

Kairiki held a 30% interest in the offshore Pantelleria permit in Italy and the nearby Kerkouane permit, offshore Tunisia. AuDAX is operator of both permits and holds a 70% interest.

Under the sale, Kairiki is free of any further obligations for the two permits, including the 2009 and 2010 financial obligations of funding a 2D seismic program on Kerkouane and a well on each permit with a total estimated cost net to Kairiki of $US14 million ($A20 million).

The company will receive $US280,000 ($A408,000 ) for each permit once AuDAX farms out an interest in each permit.

This morning, AuDAX requested a trading halt pending the announcement regarding a farm-out agreement, though it’s not clear if the agreement is for the Sicily Channel permits.

The announcement is expected to be made no later than the close of business on Thursday April, 2.

Managing director Laurie Brown said that given the financial obligations required in the near term for the ventures and the current economic conditions for funding exploration activities, the company’s funds and resources would be better leveraged towards developing its lower-risk Philippines asset base.

“Kairiki’s approach is to continue our discipline in maintaining our cash reserves and clearly this significant reduction in our exploration commitments is one of several initiatives recently taken by the company in response to the current business climate,” he said.

[Balance]

Yet another NZ company thinking it can foot it overseas with the big boys. Getting sucked into a dark hole. Can just imagine the Eastern Europeans eyeing NZO's cash and grinning from ear to ear.

[bermuda]

Yet another NZ company thinking it can foot it overseas with the big boys. Getting sucked into a dark hole. Can just imagine the Eastern Europeans eyeing NZO's cash and grinning from ear to ear.

Balance,
I have met DS several times. Has a lot of European experience. I am going to wait and see the full deal before I comment. My own preference was for them to take out PPP and stay focussed on Taranaki.

If it is anything to do with the North Sea then count me in.

[digger]

Balance,
I have met DS several times. Has a lot of European experience. I am going to wait and see the full deal before I comment. My own preference was for them to take out PPP and stay focussed on Taranaki.

If it is anything to do with the North Sea then count me in.

Bermuda what pray tell is the connection between the North sea and this Romanian venture????

[friedegg]

its easy theyre both on the other side of the planet

[bermuda]

Bermuda what pray tell is the connection between the North sea and this Romanian venture????

Nexus. Had a crack at the North Sea. An experienced and enterprising Aussie oiler. Would love NZO to go into the North Sea with Nexus. Some big pockets left....after Romania.

[Nitaa]

Yet another NZ company thinking it can foot it overseas with the big boys. Getting sucked into a dark hole. Can just imagine the Eastern Europeans eyeing NZO's cash and grinning from ear to ear.
Balance. There are many companies that have been burnt by venturing the globe in some format. Don't forget, by just sitting in your own pond you will never grow. I appluad nzo for looking beyond. Whether its a good idea or not remains to be seen. I feel somewhat bemused by the lack of foresight people have and fear stepping out of their shadow. One of us kiwis biggest negative is the lack of "take on the world" attitude. I wish people like yourself would rather encourage companies to venture out rather than shoot them down for trying to

[Pipeline]

Bermuda

Nexus is cactus and is unlikely to trade again. They have huge drilling liabilities and no cash. If this is the preferred JV partner of DS and NZO, then I wish you and them all good luck.

I dont post here often, but this comment is just so wrong on so many levels.

I dont own NZO, but have lots of PPP and even more exposure to AWE, thus the interest.

PS I like the upcoming programme in Taranaki and wonder why DS is not focusing closer to home.

Pipeline

[the machine]

The actual costs involved at this stage are <$NZ1m...

The receptionist probably used the snack box money...:D

I'm not too concerned


any payment is only after reaching certain milestones and as already speculated on that the milestones could be making a bid under the AMI for round 10 of the release [ expected mid year] and then a successfull outcome of the bid late 2009 early 2010 as bid expected to close in October.

any bid may include developing already discovered oil or gas fields.

if any partners under AMI are short of funds to progress a successful bid, then nzo may find themselves being the operator with an increased share.

from what little have read, am pretty sure OMV would rather not divest their assets.

M

[Crypto Crude]

Bermuda-Nexus. Had a crack at the North Sea. An experienced and enterprising Aussie oiler. Would love NZO to go into the North Sea with Nexus. Some big pockets left....after Romania.


I dont know whats so exciting about the North Sea?
Kind oF reminds me oF GOM, onshore US where oilers are taking 2nds, thirds, picking over permits......
I read that NS production costs are $30US per barrel... and Production is in decline by around 10% per year...
not a great region...

I agree with what you said in a previous post where NZO should remain Focused in the Taranaki basin...

IF we want oilers who have interests in regions such as the North Sea, then we can invest in them...
For NZO to stay predominately in Taranaki gives us the best opportunity to continue being rewarded with leverage without dilution oF investment in other regions ...
Taranaki has made this company what it is today... why change From that...?
:cool:
.^sc

[zorba]

Oil prices moving up nicely along with more positive global stock market sentiment.

Tapis hit US$56 / barrel around midight NZ time.

Check here for latest US$ numbers for a range of benchmark oil prices:

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Hopefully Bollard will cut the OCR again and keep the Kiwi exchange rate in the mid 50s .....

.

[Xerof]

there might be a Cobra lurking in the North Sea, looking for a home......
and probably velly cheep price too

[boysy]

Any one else notice that the "typical day production" figure has been removed from nzog website. Rather wierd taking it off after being on the website for such a short time.

[the machine]

still no specidic mention of romania

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00942138

[Billy Boy]

A very good educationial read for those who are still learning the
oil industry and how it works.
Enjoy :)
http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/IRM/content/investor_presentations.html
Go to the March Presentation

BB:)

[fish]

Any one else notice that the "typical day production" figure has been removed from nzog website. Rather wierd taking it off after being on the website for such a short time.


Still it was nice seeing production is still going well and oil price is looking good .
Hopefully we will have fortuitous timing with kupe as we did for peak production with Tui .

Kupes hydrocarbon reserves should be much bigger than TUI-and this time nzo has a 15% stake.

If you want to know ,for instance, current production figures just e mail Chris Roberts .

Looks to me that by the 3rd quarter of this year with Tui Kupe and PRC in production we could see profitability treble .

NZO must have accumulated a large amount of tax credits which would be nice attached to the annual dividend

[Nitaa]

Has been a little quiet of late. No more action in aquiring PPP. Personally not sure what to make of it.

PRC still concerns me especially since the Indian co's dont want to take up their rights.

[the machine]

Has been a little quiet of late. No more action in aquiring PPP. Personally not sure what to make of it.

PRC still concerns me especially since the Indian co's dont want to take up their rights.


very quiet in what might be a dead cat bounce market

expect the quarterly will detail awe are doing a study of tui to upgrade the reserves
[being an annual update due by june 30]

more news on timeframe for rig to be shipped from caribbean [take about 5 - 6 weeks through panama canal]

as regards ppp it seems very dead for a while [so dead we sold 100,000 ppp recently]
nzo will wait until prc rights issue bedded down so they will know what impact on nzo cash position. further as previously posted, any more play for ppp will involve script and nzo sp is dead in the water, thus timing is not right - perhaps 3rd quarter on back of drilling schedule, updated tui reserves, kupe at the starting gate, nzo dividend etc.

the romania play should be clarified once signed.

m


apparently rig has been enroute to aust/nz since about march 17, so should be more than halfway now.

M

[digger]

Has been a little quiet of late. No more action in aquiring PPP. Personally not sure what to make of it.

PRC still concerns me especially since the Indian co's dont want to take up their rights.

Nita,unless you know the situation with the Indian companies it is a bit of a jump to say they do not want to take up their rights. With this depression it is more likely they want to but home finance prohibs it.

[Xerof]

According to GW, one will most likely take up their rights, the other unlikely to do so due to financing requirements for another project in OZ, if I am quoting him correctly from the Hastings meeting

Never-the-less, strange that the one who indicated they would, didn't commit and take the underwriting fees when available

[shasta]

According to GW, one will most likely take up their rights, the other unlikely to do so due to financing requirements for another project in OZ, if I am quoting him correctly from the Hastings meeting

Never-the-less, strange that the one who indicated they would, didn't commit and take the underwriting fees when available

Goodness, no NZO posts in a week? :eek:

After a reasonably long absence from the NZO share register, i shall be returning tomorrow. ;)

Am anticipating a bit of a run up until the March quarterly comes out...

Am betting oil will be trending higher by the time Kupe comes online, & there's alot of cash NZO are still holding (+ the PPP shares).

I'm sure AWE are watching NZO, regardless of what happens with PPP.

[shasta]

Hiya Shasta,

Could you please try to refrain from using "NZO" and "week" in the same sentence please? I nearly jumped out of my seat. ;)

Cheers :D

Lucky i didn't miss spell it as "Weak" :D

I'll add NZO to my signature & that should set it off ;)

[friedegg]

maybe the sp will boost if they announce a capital raising

[shasta]

maybe the sp will boost if they announce a capital raising

Maybe they could entertain a capital raising if they were looking to take over AWE?

I doubt that's what NZO are thinking though.

Remember the Board's ambitions target of 2mmbo p.a production & 25mmbo reserves.

PPP only offers that (combined with NZO) for a year or so, unless they can tie in more discoveries close to TUI.

Kupe with it's exploration targets nearby probably offers the best risk v return to achieve the Board's goals, & thats where i'd like to see NZO put some funds into. Perhaps buying a bigger slice of the action!

[the machine]

this headline makes interesting reading re romania play [compared to australia prices]

Aussie gas explorers invade Europe
Exclusively for Premium Subscribers
(Friday, 17 April 2009)

EUROPE is being invaded by a growing band of Australian gas explorers, lured by domestic prices that are three to five times better than those at home.



wonder if nzo will say anything in the quarterly

M

[Sehnsucht888]

The Australian has an article today pointing out that oil needs to be over $70 in the shortterm for alternative energies, (i think it was), to be progressed as thats the cost for them. $50 just not make them viable.

Not new news, and often mentioned, but demand is the controller not the future..

[shasta]

Shasta - You've sent the sp the wrong way. I suggest you sell all of your holding at once! (as always dyor first tho) ;)

As old Warren would say, ignore the daily noise of the market, has anything detrimental happened to NZO's business overnight?

The answer is no ;)

WTI fell about $4, but guess what the $US dropped as well :D

Oil @ say $US45/bbl / $US0.55 = $NZ81/bbl - still plenty of profit margin

Short term SP weakness = top up opportunity

I'm not a trader, but an investor :)

[Bilo]

As old Warren would say, ignore the daily noise of the market, has anything detrimental happened to NZO's business overnight?

The answer is no ;)

WTI fell about $4, but guess what the $US dropped as well :D

Short term SP weakness = top up opportunity

I'm not a trader, but an investor :)

And Shasta you forgot to note that Tapis price was USD55 with the NZD/USD at .55, so NZO would be getting over NZD100 for each and every barrel so the wally that sells NZO down whenever the WTI drops is just that, a wally. When Tui was sanctioned it was a wild dream that we would get NZD100.:)

[shasta]

And Shasta you forgot to note that Tapis price was USD55 with the NZD/USD at .55, so NZO would be getting over NZD100 for each and every barrel so the wally that sells NZO down whenever the WTI drops is just that, a wally. When Tui was sanctioned it was a wild dream that we would get NZD100.:)

Thanks for that, completely forgot NZO get the Tapis price which tends to be a few dollars more than WTI.

Anyone got a live source for the Tapis price - Bloomberg don't have it?

[777]

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

[shasta]

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Thats exactly what i was after, cheers :cool:

[777]

Something that does not make much sense to me.

If you look at the total securities on issue from NZOG website (updated each month). It shows that 27 holders have more than 1,000,000 units each totaling 167,303,926 units. When you look at the 20 largest unitholders chart it shows that they hold 130,543,875 units. This means that 7 (27-20) hold 36,760,051 (167,303,926-130,543,875) units giving an average holding of 5,251,436 units. The 20th largest unit
holder only holds 2,690,043 units. The average holding for those remaining 7 would put them at the level of the 9th largest unitholder.

This happens month after month. Does anyone have an explanation.

These numbers are as at 31/3/09.

http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-ownershipsummary
http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-securities

[Nitaa]

Something that does not make much sense to me.

If you look at the total securities on issue from NZOG website (updated each month). It shows that 27 holders have more than 1,000,000 units each totaling 167,303,926 units. When you look at the 20 largest unitholders chart it shows that they hold 130,543,875 units. This means that 7 (27-20) hold 36,760,051 (167,303,926-130,543,875) units giving an average holding of 5,251,436 units. The 20th largest unit
holder only holds 2,690,043 units. The average holding for those remaining 7 would put them at the level of the 9th largest unitholder.

This happens month after month. Does anyone have an explanation.

These numbers are as at 31/3/09.

http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-ownershipsummary
http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-securitiesweird. I havent figured it out. nearly 37m shares among 7 holders according to this report. maybe the company secretary ...hint hint to nzo may want to clarify.

[Chris Roberts]

The two lists have an important difference.
The Top 20 shareholders list breaks out the underlying owners from NZ Central Security Depository Ltd (NZSCD). 10 of the Top 20 shareholders hold their shares through NZSCD.
The total securities distribution records NZCSD as one shareholder.

[777]

I knew there had to be a simple explanation. Thank you Chris.

[Bixbite]

The total securities distribution records NZCSD as one shareholder.


I always think that the big brother would look after and care for us little brothers. But the reality seems not, it always “left hands – right hands” punches its little brothers to the floor.

Cheers

[Nitaa]

The two lists have an important difference.
The Top 20 shareholders list breaks out the underlying owners from NZ Central Security Depository Ltd (NZSCD). 10 of the Top 20 shareholders hold their shares through NZSCD.
The total securities distribution records NZCSD as one shareholder.thanks Chris, appreciated

[fish]

Tui pumping steadily away-nzo share now over 1 million barrels this year and over 2 months before end financial year -should be above last projected amount -and price improving-17/04/09 US$54.06 NZ$95.16

The profits should really start flowing when kupe starts producing as well - and then hopefully the market will awaken to the hidden value in this share .

[neopoleII]

""The profits should really start flowing when kupe starts producing as well - and then hopefully the market will awaken to the hidden value in this share . ""

as long as they pay a divi...........
remember TR still wants to go elephant hunting..........
this co has the potential to go billistic, but its directors still treat its shareholders as a free source of capital

still holding and hoping for a real and worthwhile divi stream.

[fish]

""The profits should really start flowing when kupe starts producing as well - and then hopefully the market will awaken to the hidden value in this share . ""

as long as they pay a divi...........
remember TR still wants to go elephant hunting..........
this co has the potential to go billistic, but its directors still treat its shareholders as a free source of capital

still holding and hoping for a real and worthwhile divi stream.

TR is very shrewd -and I applaud the fact he is spending little and holding onto the$200 million cash hoard I agree with you a special dividend would be making better use of say $40 million -10cent dividend plus imp credits than leaving the money earning 4% less tax at 30% in the bank

[digger]

TR is very shrewd -and I applaud the fact he is spending little and holding onto the$200 million cash hoard I agree with you a special dividend would be making better use of say $40 million -10cent dividend plus imp credits than leaving the money earning 4% less tax at 30% in the bank
I think you will have to wait until end of August for any dividend.And if there is one it may not be as high as 10 cents . Just because last year that was the combined sum does not say it will be this year.Several things make me think it could be less. Firstly the current revenue stream is lower than last year at this time and the recession/depression has provided a unique one off opportunity to empire built at low cost.Also keep it in mind that we are in that long talked about trough between the wind down of TUI and the start of Kupe.In this gap PIKE that was in the past going to help fill certaintly did not.
In summary NZO will have to go quitely with dividend expectation until PIKE and KUPE and the drilling expence requirements are known.Also watch that empire building---the opportunity is toooo good to miss.My best dividend estimate would be 6 or 7 cents.
Perhaps it is time to consider a share in lue of dividend.It would be a very good idea especially this year with so many competing view points on which way up is.

[Nitaa]

I am picking 4 or 5 cps divy subject to them not buying anything significant in the mean time

[the machine]

I am picking 4 or 5 cps divy subject to them not buying anything significant in the mean time


should the new permit next to kupe develop into a drill then nzo may wish to retain 80%, thus usd$20-30m needs to be put aside.

imagine if a red hot drill nzo retaining 100%


success with gaining permits in romania will require almost immediate funding to drill as well, since they are OMV surrendered permits [that have had a heap of work done on them?]


M

[Corporate]

should the new permit next to kupe develop into a drill then nzo may wish to retain 80%, thus usd$20-30m needs to be put aside.

imagine if a red hot drill nzo retaining 100%


success with gaining permits in romania will require almost immediate funding to drill as well, since they are OMV surrendered permits [that have had a heap of work done on them?]


M

Do we know why OMV surrendered them though?

[the machine]

Do we know why OMV surrendered them though?

think the government forced them to do it because OMV had to much market share




M

[Corporate]

Does anyone know how much revenue NZO expects per quarter from Kupe?

[Ponda]

Does todays annoument by PPP of a 3 cent dividend extend to NZO as a shareholder? I am trying to find how many shares NZO have in PPP to see what sort of income that will generate.

If it does then it's one source of income that hasn't been factored in and so that in turn could allow NZO to pay a special dividend.

At todays PPP price of 40 cents, does 3 cents equate to about 7.5% return.

Hope you all have a good day.

DISC: Hold PPP and NZO amongst others

[oldowl]

Does todays annoument by PPP of a 3 cent dividend extend to NZO as a shareholder? I am trying to find how many shares NZO have in PPP to see what sort of income that will generate.

If it does then it's one source of income that hasn't been factored in and so that in turn could allow NZO to pay a special dividend.

At todays PPP price of 40 cents, does 3 cents equate to about 7.5% return.

Hope you all have a good day.

DISC: Hold PPP and NZO amongst others

NZO have about 30% of the 588612110 PPP shares.
That's about 176583633 times 3 cent = 5.3 million if I calculated ok.

OO

[BigBob]

Does todays annoument by PPP of a 3 cent dividend extend to NZO as a shareholder? I am trying to find how many shares NZO have in PPP to see what sort of income that will generate.

If it does then it's one source of income that hasn't been factored in and so that in turn could allow NZO to pay a special dividend.

At todays PPP price of 40 cents, does 3 cents equate to about 7.5% return.

Hope you all have a good day.

DISC: Hold PPP and NZO amongst others

PPP have approx 588m shares on issue, NZO hold about 15% = div coming NZO's way ~ A$2.65m

[Ponda]

Thanks for that OO and BigBob

[Awamoa]

The share price of PPP rises following this announcement and NZO falls?

[shasta]

Yes I too find this odd.

NZO has gained $3M +/- NZD cash on PPP's announcment and the s/p drops :confused:

PRC was down just a tick over 5% today...

NZO hold quite a few from the underwriting now!

[neopoleII]

that 3mil will go into the consolidated NZO slush fund which shareholders will never see.
as long as TR controls the board, the cash will be spent on elephant hunting and board room salaries.
If PPP free from TRs clutches can pay 3cps and still plan aquistions, NZO holders should expect something decent at the end of the year........yeah right.

excuse my cyninism, I have lost faith in TR looking after the SHAREHOLDERS of the company, it seems this coy is his own to do with as he chooses.

but then...... he does get voted in every time........ strange that.

[777]

that 3mil will go into the consolidated NZO slush fund which shareholders will never see.
as long as TR controls the board, the cash will be spent on elephant hunting and board room salaries.
If PPP free from TRs clutches can pay 3cps and still plan aquistions, NZO holders should expect something decent at the end of the year........yeah right.

excuse my cyninism, I have lost faith in TR looking after the SHAREHOLDERS of the company, it seems this coy is his own to do with as he chooses.

but then...... he does get voted in every time........ strange that.

If I remember correctly NZO have said that any further dividend payment decision would be in the second half of this calendar year. So why are you so impatient? There are many holders that would prefer no dividend be paid and the money spent on further drills. Personally I would like to see a regular albeit small dividend paid and the "elephant hunting" as you elect to call it.

[Unicorn]

that 3mil will go into the consolidated NZO slush fund which shareholders will never see.
as long as TR controls the board, the cash will be spent on elephant hunting and board room salaries.
If PPP free from TRs clutches can pay 3cps and still plan aquistions, NZO holders should expect something decent at the end of the year........yeah right.

excuse my cyninism, I have lost faith in TR looking after the SHAREHOLDERS of the company, it seems this coy is his own to do with as he chooses.

but then...... he does get voted in every time........ strange that.

I am very happy with the way NZO has been run over the last couple of years. As a shareholder I think my interests have been well looked after - certainly far better than could be said for many other NZX listed companies.

It has been well signalled for some time now that dividends would follow on from solid income streams. Kupe will hopefully come on stream later this year, providing that solid income. Tui has performed way above expectations, so 10c (ith full imputation credits) has been paid in special dividends. And in a market where everything is down, NZO has still returned a good capital gain.

I think I have already had something decent from NZO this year. And there are a whole lot more very positive possibilities to come!

[neopoleII]

im not impatient, would be happy to a small but regular divi once a year, its just my pessimistic view of TR whispering in my ear saying that TR will retract or give only a tiny divi, while holding the rest for "elephant hunting".
by elephant hunting i mean that he wants to punch above his grade and find a huge field before he retires.
the problem is its shareholder funds.
I would like to see 50% of profits spent on exploration, some held back as opurtunity capital and some on divis, say 50,25,25 split.
but i have a nagging feeling that divis are at the bottom of the list,
and in this enviroment of low bank rates, crumbling investment houses, and general unease as to where to park income generating monies.....which there is alot of, NZO could grow its value by just being a secure, productive divi producing company.
which is why instos and big money stay away, because there is the notion of nothing to gain, and lots to lose, even though NZO is cash positive.
perception in this enviroment is very important.

just my views.
I hold and will continue to hold, but TR makes me weary.

[shasta]

im not impatient, would be happy to a small but regular divi once a year, its just my pessimistic view of TR whispering in my ear saying that TR will retract or give only a tiny divi, while holding the rest for "elephant hunting".
by elephant hunting i mean that he wants to punch above his grade and find a huge field before he retires.
the problem is its shareholder funds.
I would like to see 50% of profits spent on exploration, some held back as opurtunity capital and some on divis, say 50,25,25 split.
but i have a nagging feeling that divis are at the bottom of the list,
and in this enviroment of low bank rates, crumbling investment houses, and general unease as to where to park income generating monies.....which there is alot of, NZO could grow its value by just being a secure, productive divi producing company.
which is why instos and big money stay away, because there is the notion of nothing to gain, and lots to lose, even though NZO is cash positive.
perception in this enviroment is very important.

just my views.
I hold and will continue to hold, but TR makes me weary.

NZO has been in production less than 2 years so is hardly a mature producer, who pays out a steady dividend, rather than replace there reserves by further exploration.

Look at BPT, over 70mmbo* reserves, annual production around 10mmboe & yet they pay just 1.75cps in dividends! (*excluding Tipton West)

NZO is still very much in growth mode & exploration comes to the forefront with this. Kupe provides further long term stability in revenues, & like Unicorn said, the dividend announcement will be made come AGM time.

The oil & gas industry isn't really the place to go looking for dividend yields.

Personally, as i've mentioned before i'm against dividends for O&G companies & would rather they:

1. Acquired another O&G producer (at the right price) to increase reserves
2. Beefed up exploration/extra drills close to existing producing permits, or buy a bigger slice of the action on projects already in production.
3. A share buyback, if the market discounts the shares to the broker concensus.
4. Special dividends, to coincide with project milestones
5. And lastly, regular fully imputed dividends.

Remember as shareholders we pay the Board/Management to increase shareholder wealth/funds, & should expect them to better allocate our capital than merely giving it back.

People forget it wasn't that long ago, NZO raised a ton of cash - so why give it back so soon?

I'm with Unicorn, NZO are doing a great job as is, by being open to opportunities (PPP), assisting PRC (this will pay off down the track), yet have remained prudent with the cash pile.

[Grand Uber]

Well said Shasta

Dividends are not unappreciated but i'd rather see growth in the company through exploration.

Wouldnt say no to a share buy back though.

[digger]

Actually i think there is room for everyone here.Make the dividend announcement in August about 6 or 7 cents and have a favourable reinvestment scheme going at the same time.Those that need the money take it and those that want a elephant will have a bigger stake in the company if the drill is successful. The biggest elephant in the current market is acquisation or just a holding stake in other companies,so giving too much money back to shareholders this year is not as wise as it was last year when opportunities were limited.

[fish]

Actually i think there is room for everyone here.Make the dividend announcement in August about 6 or 7 cents and have a favourable reinvestment scheme going at the same time.Those that need the money take it and those that want a elephant will have a bigger stake in the company if the drill is successful. The biggest elephant in the current market is acquisation or just a holding stake in other companies,so giving too much money back to shareholders this year is not as wise as it was last year when opportunities were limited.

Agree an optional re-investment plan should please most shareholders.
A 10 cent dividend with imputation credits for a 12 month period is more than affordable-would cost nearly 40 million but leave 160 million in the bank .

Kupe will be on stream soon and with fixed price gas contracts negotiated during the peak oil prices last year there will be massive cash incone so no need to keep so much in reserve as we have now

[neopoleII]

if a re-investment plan was a given option, I would take that over a divi.
at least that way the shareholder gets a current return, and the company isnt shedding cash into sharholders other activities, this could be a win win for longerterm, short term investors, traders, speculators and the company.
its not perfect, but nor is leaving 100's of millions earning 3% waiting for an oiler to go bust...... hey.... I'd rather they buy/build/ co-own an oil rig and get free carried into untold permits for percentage rights.
I fear that NZO doesnt have the purchacing power to truely buy into promising prospects or opertunities when the really big fish are always hunting.
just read the csg and oil thread on the asx forum, the big boys have big cash, NZO is getting proposals for the risky plays the big boys walk from.
NZO has a magnificent future, but not if its thinking of spending 100s of million on a play the big boys walk from,....... but maybe it might find a struggling company sitting on a elephant.
sounds more like gambling than risk taking.

end of the day, every shareholder has his reasons for investing in NZO, some want high risk reward, some want long term income, some want medium term capital growth,
NZO is in transistion phase from only being an explorer to producer explorer.
one day it will be producer explorer acquistioner,
I fear NZO is looking at the acquistioner side too early, even though the current environment has given NZO that open door to have a looksy.

disclosure::
have held and accumulate NZO for 5 years, will hold and accumulate (all going well) till i retire 23 years from now. 95% of my portfolio is NZO and PPP. I sold down 9 divi stocks
to get these two, on the plan that when these 2 eventually get an income stream.... which is now, the divis will start to flow in a regular manor, which would give me a large percentage divi compared to my initial purchace price for the stock.

I guess im a bit too eager for the divi, but then im weary of the mountain of cash being lost down a 200 million dry hole too.

[Bixbite]

disclosure::
have held and accumulate NZO for 5 years, will hold and accumulate (all going well) till i retire 23 years from now.

For my past 23 years investment experience (history), I would honestly suggest you to buy good location with good landscape farms. Not only just the gains from the capital but you have the control over it.

Could you order NZO to pay a divi? You can ask but…

Cheers

[digger]

For my past 23 years investment experience (history), I would honestly suggest you to buy good location with good landscape farms. Not only just the gains from the capital but you have the control over it.

Could you order NZO to pay a divi? You can ask but…

Cheers


The finanical changes here and world wide are such that capital gains on real estate will shortly be a thing of the past.These stimulus packages will need a new source of revenue to pay the bill and capital gains have been too unfair too long and will be the sitting duck when the govt starts looking for funds.Capital gains will probably come in across the board---that is on all tradable items.

[the machine]

with nzo knowing they will pick up a few $m dividend from ppp then wonder how will play out what to do with the $
one option could be to borrow against it for 2 months and buy another 2,000,000 ppp now, so as to not only increase holding but pick up dividend on them as well.

another option could be to wait until ppp go ex div and top up holding to 19.9%, hoping for a reasonable quantity on the sell side at a reasonable price.



ppp have issued quarterly report and nothing new, so awe and nzo to come [in terms of tui]

awe might include details of reassessing tui field in line for june 30 reserves statement - last year a lot of hype but this year will be ho hum.

M

[notie]

I agree with neopole about where NZOG is going. TR runs this company like his own and while he is there nothing is going to happen. This company fails to inspire investment from institutional investors who are obviously not keen on the current direction of the company. When you have an exploration company like NZOG with a lot of cash in the bank you expect them to grow that investment by getting involved in some decent projects at the exploration stage and making some good investments.

So what have we seen from NZOG? What have they invested in? Well there was offshore Canterbury which by all accounts the other partners want to get out of, so the party that sold to NZOG were very happy to take the money and get out. The rest of the permits they are in (apart from one) are operated by AWE (Tui) or Origin (Kupe), and NZOG is very much a minority party in these ventures at less than 15%. The problem with this sort of position is you are not the master of your own destiny. Recently NZOG did take on a new permit near Kupe in an area that many companies (OMV, Origin, Swift and NZOG themselves) have all been in, although no one has ever drilled a well in there as there are no valid prospects, and those that are there are not elephants and all carry major risks. This is not an aggressive and or smart investment strategy.

In fact the last time that NZOG operated a permit was Optio in Northern Taranaki which they relinquished in ?2007 before they had to commit to another well. That piece of land was then grabbed by another operator next door, so NZOG effectively lost their only operated permit mature enough for the drill bit.
There is now a situation where NZOG have been sitting around on this pile of cash over the last year saying they are looking at opportunities, but apart from the offshore Canterbury permit and following on the coat tails of AWE this company hasn't been prepared to invest any of its money in any decent exploration or production projects. It does beg the question what is management doing and are they really achieving? Remember none of them were involved in the discovery of tui or kupe. NZOG needs to pull finger and walk the walk, not talk the talk.

[Timo]

Mmm...food for thought Notie.What's your take on PPP.

[notie]

My take.....:)

Investing in PPP gets you more of the same, but at a market cost, whereas there are probably exploration projects out there that can be brought at a much cheaper exploration price.

NZOG buying more PPP suggests that they don't really have many ideas and it raises questions about the competency of the board and management there.

[bermuda]

I agree with neopole about where NZOG is going. TR runs this company like his own and while he is there nothing is going to happen. This company fails to inspire investment from institutional investors who are obviously not keen on the current direction of the company. When you have an exploration company like NZOG with a lot of cash in the bank you expect them to grow that investment by getting involved in some decent projects at the exploration stage and making some good investments.

So what have we seen from NZOG? What have they invested in? Well there was offshore Canterbury which by all accounts the other partners want to get out of, so the party that sold to NZOG were very happy to take the money and get out. The rest of the permits they are in (apart from one) are operated by AWE (Tui) or Origin (Kupe), and NZOG is very much a minority party in these ventures at less than 15%. The problem with this sort of position is you are not the master of your own destiny. Recently NZOG did take on a new permit near Kupe in an area that many companies (OMV, Origin, Swift and NZOG themselves) have all been in, although no one has ever drilled a well in there as there are no valid prospects, and those that are there are not elephants and all carry major risks. This is not an aggressive and or smart investment strategy.

In fact the last time that NZOG operated a permit was Optio in Northern Taranaki which they relinquished in ?2007 before they had to commit to another well. That piece of land was then grabbed by another operator next door, so NZOG effectively lost their only operated permit mature enough for the drill bit.
There is now a situation where NZOG have been sitting around on this pile of cash over the last year saying they are looking at opportunities, but apart from the offshore Canterbury permit and following on the coat tails of AWE this company hasn't been prepared to invest any of its money in any decent exploration or production projects. It does beg the question what is management doing and are they really achieving? Remember none of them were involved in the discovery of tui or kupe. NZOG needs to pull finger and walk the walk, not talk the talk.

Notie,
If there was ever a time to walk the walk, it is now. Most intelligent companys are riding this downturn out, waiting for a number of issues to get clearer.

I have no problems with NZO, but they should grab all of PPP, which I think they will.

[Timo]

Yep maybe the fat lady hasn't sung yet and there will be some good buys for the patient if the market takes another hammering.

[777]

Quarterly reports out.

http://www.nzog.com/f148,143184/143184_March_2009_Quarterly_Cash_Flow_Report.pdf

http://www.nzog.com/f147,143165/143165_NZOG_Qtly_Report_Mar_09_Final.pdf

[the machine]

finally some info from nzo about romania.

like the bit about the likely acreage to include development - thus the oil/gas has already been found. would be nice if nzo gained some of this.

from what little I have read, the exploration prospects in romania sound really hot.


last year the bids were invited in july and closed in october so nzo should be well positioned to make some bids as part of the joint venture.

M

[the machine]

origin advise in their quarterly an updated reserve for kupe south is expected by end of june

M

[boysy]

Kupe development close to completion
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Thursday, 30 April 2009

THE development of the Kupe gas-condensate field offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, is virtually complete, with precommissioning of the onshore production station already started for scheduled commercial gas flows from September.

Minority partner New Zealand Oil & Gas said in its March quarterly report that virtually all the major components were in place at the onshore production station near Hawera and that two condensate storage tanks were being erected at the Omata tank farm in New Plymouth.

About 900 workers were at the production station, providing all the finishing touches, such as welding pipes, and installing electrical connections.

NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said the $NZ1.2 billion (about $A948 million) project was about 95% complete, with only a propane compressor and a gas export compressor still to be put in place.

He said hydro testing had already started and that commissioning proper was due to start in June.

Commercial production, of about 20 petajoules of sales gas per annum, should be achieved during the September quarter and last at least the next 10 years.

Salisbury added that NZOG had high hopes for the Kupe mining licence PML 38146 and exploration licence PEP 51311, to the west of Kupe, which the company was granted last January.

It was known the Farewell Formation, from which Kupe will produce, was present elsewhere in PML 38146. Though the area was faulted, there were some good-looking prospects that needed to be proved up before further drilling could be considered.

Operator Origin Energy had a work program underway to further assess the three previously discovered accumulations to the southeast of the central field, along with potential accumulations nearby. Previous wells include Momoho-1, drilled last July, and the Kupe South-4 (gas) and Kupe South-5 (oil) wells drilled about 20 years ago.

PEP 51311 contains a fairway of structures, which NZOG labelled as the Gamma prospects, with a number of separate closures formed by upper Miocene sands.

The CGG Veritas vessel Pacific Titan had shot some 2D seismic over the new permit in the summer and, if the results were encouraging, there was “the potential for exploration drilling in 2011”, Salisbury said.

He added that the nearby offshore Tui Area oil field – the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools – continued to exceed both long and short-term forecasts. Production for the March quarter totalled 2 million barrels, averaging about 22,616 barrels per day. Cumulative field production to the end of March was 21.8MMbbl.

The Umuroa floating production, storage and offtake vessel at Tui is still processing at or near its maximum of 130,000 barrels of liquids per day, meaning water cut is now about 81%, but still easily within the operating limit of about 95%.

Salisbury said the semi-submersible rig Kan Tan IV was now expected in New Zealand waters during October for a multi-well, multi-permit program for NZOG and its various partners.

The first well is scheduled to be Hoki-1, to test the large Hoki oil prospect in licence PEP 38401, together with at least two wells to test oil prospects in close proximity to the producing Tui field.

Salisbury said he hoped the Tui joint venture, which is due to meet in the next week or two, would finalise which prospects the rig would drill. Candidates include the Tui Southwest, Tui Southeast, Tui Northeast, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic structures.

“With ongoing production from Tui and the Kupe field getting close to commissioning, NZOG will soon have two producing assets and sound revenues going forward for the next decade and more.

“At this time a key focus for the company is to find and develop the next Tui or Kupe and, in this regard, it is pleasing that we have been able to significantly expand our exploration portfolio,” Salisbury added.

As well as Tui, Kupe and PEP 51311, NZOG was also involved in PEP 51321 (Kahurangi), PEP 38483 (Aihe), PEP 38259 (Barque) and a study in Romania.

The Tui joint venture believed there were several promising structures in PEP 51321 and during the next 12 months historic seismic data would be reprocessed and geological and geophysical studies conducted. About 200km of new 2D seismic data will be acquired next year, with a decision to drill taken at the end of that year.

The Titan had already shot some 2D seismic over PEP 38483 (Aihe), which was now being processed and evaluated, with the initial results expected mid-year.

The vessel also shot some 2D seismic over the Barque prospect in offshore Canterbury block PEP 38259, which NZOG assessed as having the potential to contain recoverable 2P resources of 600 billion cubic feet of dry sales gas and 58MMbbl of condensate. The seismic data is now being processed and evaluated. A decision whether or not to commit to drilling an exploration well is to be made by August.

Salisbury said that NZOG’s first venture into Europe, where he spent several years while with Austrian firm OMV, was “an interesting, low cost investment for NZOG”.

NZOG recently agreed to buy Kairiki Energy’s 33.33% interest in an area of mutual interest for a total payment obligation of 235,000 euros (about $A454,000) if certain conditions are met. Then NZOG, together with Audax Resources and Nexus Energy, may bid for Romanian exploration and development acreage in relinquished Petrom and Romgaz licences.

“It’s a toe in the water in Europe’s third-largest petroleum producer. We are aware of corruption issues but believe the rule of law is OK,” Salisbury added.

Romania’s recent annual production has been around 110MMbbls and it has the third-largest remaining identified petroleum reserves behind Norway and Britain, of about 1 billion barrels of oil and 3500Bcf of gas.

Lastly, Salisbury again declined to comment on whether NZOG would increase its 15% stake in Pan Pacific Petroleum, including the possibility of launching a full takeover for the Sydney-headquartered company.

The Kupe partners are operator Origin Energy (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (15%) and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

The Tui partners are operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), NZOG (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

[Dr_Who]

I am not liking the Romanian venture. Too far away and no competitive advantage.

[flyingmariner]

Agree with Dr WHO.................why not stick to the local area, surely there are plenty of opportunities in oil and gas in Aust.

Geeeeeez, most of us couldn't even pin point Romania on a map!!

[the machine]

I am not liking the Romanian venture. Too far away and no competitive advantage.

shift closer - spend the nz winter in the med, with romania just up the road


M

[the machine]

[QUOTE=boysy;253277]Kupe development close to completion
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Thursday, 30 April 2009

big interview by nzo - cranking up the pr - to what end one wonders?

M

[Sehnsucht888]

NZO have often stated they see limited opportunities locally, therefore to increase the company they have to go off shore.

They are putting little $ into it at the moment, and have time to get the low of the land to ensure that what they are doing is sound.

There are worse places they could be looking at with less political stability. Not sure quite what the " corruption issues " relates to though...

[zorba]

Austral Pacific in Recievership

Debts in excess of NZ$30 million

Infratil wont be pleased.

NZOG might just be very interested in picking up some of the permits and facilities !!!

Cheal and Cardiff plus Kahili permits could be tasty, other permits as well:

http://www.austral-pacific.com/proj.php?loc=nz

Cheal produces moderate oil flows and has considerable infrastructure in place:

http://www.austral-pacific.com/chealpd.php

NZOG would be a naturel for it ..... may have to beat off Greymouth though .... could be quite a scrap.

Z

[sideline]

Austral Pacific in Recievership

Debts in excess of NZ$30 million

Infratil wont be pleased.

NZOG might just be very interested in picking up some of the permits and facilities !!!

Cheal and Cardiff plus Kahili permits could be tasty, other permits as well:

http://www.austral-pacific.com/proj.php?loc=nz

Cheal produces moderate oil flows and has considerable infrastructure in place:

http://www.austral-pacific.com/chealpd.php

NZOG would be a naturel for it ..... may have to beat off Greymouth though .... could be quite a scrap.

Z

Dunno, what are the possible production rates?? From memory, there are some really small fry
operations out there which we wouldn't want to waste our time and money with.


[couldn't find any production info on APX web site]

[Sehnsucht888]

less than 1000 barrels per day I think. not very much

[bermuda]

less than 1000 barrels per day I think. not very much

Hi Zorba,
I wouldnt waste my time with these problematic minnows. I would concentrate on taking out PPP and investing in the surrounding Tui drills.

[Bixbite]

Hi Zorba,
I would concentrate on taking out PPP and investing in the surrounding Tui drills.

Hi bermuda,

It seems you are very keen on NZO to take out all PPP. Can you suggest a cue price, which NZO should offer for?

Yours sincerely “little” reader

(Please note: “little” here is my knowledge and experience but not my age.)

[bermuda]

Hi bermuda,

It seems you are very keen on NZO to take out all PPP. Can you suggest a cue price, which NZO should offer for?

Yours sincerely “little” reader

(Please note: “little” here is my knowledge and experience but not my age.)

Bixbite,

PPP is a perfect fit for NZO. As for the price I would suggest this will be determined by the advisors to the PPP Board. See Tomlinson's letter to shareholders of some months ago. A real cracker.

[shasta]

Bixbite,

PPP is a perfect fit for NZO. As for the price I would suggest this will be determined by the advisors to the PPP Board. See Tomlinson's letter to shareholders of some months ago. A real cracker.

I'm not so sure about PPP anymore, Bermuda.

Perhaps wait for someone else to take a crack at PPP (AWE?), & sell out for a tidy profit?

The Tui field is in decline & the NZO board stated there targets were 2mmbo production a year, & 25mmbo reserves.

PPP doesn't really make up the balance, & if it does it's for a year or 2 max.

I'd like to see NZO spend there cash on increasing there reserves, they also need a mixture of producing & exploration projects to replenish reserves.

Leftfield could be to buy a rig with AWE & drill the stuffing outta Taranaki!

Someone mentioned APX, or perhaps another financially distressed producer could be on the cards?

I'd like to see NZO use the eventual Pike River funds to acquire another O&G play, especially one with plenty of exploration targets near to producing fields.

And as NZO wants to stick around in NZ, i'd like to see a small punt (<$20m) on assisting LMP with there permits & potential too.

Just my thoughts as usual :rolleyes:

[bermuda]

I'm not so sure about PPP anymore, Bermuda.

Perhaps wait for someone else to take a crack at PPP (AWE?), & sell out for a tidy profit?

The Tui field is in decline & the NZO board stated there targets were 2mmbo production a year, & 25mmbo reserves.

PPP doesn't really make up the balance, & if it does it's for a year or 2 max.

I'd like to see NZO spend there cash on increasing there reserves, they also need a mixture of producing & exploration projects to replenish reserves.

Leftfield could be to buy a rig with AWE & drill the stuffing outta Taranaki!

Someone mentioned APX, or perhaps another financially distressed producer could be on the cards?

I'd like to see NZO use the eventual Pike River funds to acquire another O&G play, especially one with plenty of exploration targets near to producing fields.

And as NZO wants to stick around in NZ, i'd like to see a small punt (<$20m) on assisting LMP with there permits & potential too.

Just my thoughts as usual :rolleyes:

Hi Shasta,
Just my thoughts too,
I just sort of feel that PPP is the best pick of all. Would hate to get involved with APX.

It is a matter of Tomlinson & co versus Radford. My pick is NZO take them out. ( and this is only my opinion...it just seems right. )

Agree your comments about staying in Taranaki. LMP...not so sure. Sometimes I think I will have a stab at them, sometimes I dont. I would be impressed if a decent certification company decided to come and take a look. In the meantime I am staying on the fenceline.

[the machine]

I'm not so sure about PPP anymore, Bermuda.

Perhaps wait for someone else to take a crack at PPP (AWE?), & sell out for a tidy profit?

The Tui field is in decline & the NZO board stated there targets were 2mmbo production a year, & 25mmbo reserves.

PPP doesn't really make up the balance, & if it does it's for a year or 2 max.

I'd like to see NZO spend there cash on increasing there reserves, they also need a mixture of producing & exploration projects to replenish reserves.

Leftfield could be to buy a rig with AWE & drill the stuffing outta Taranaki!

Someone mentioned APX, or perhaps another financially distressed producer could be on the cards?

I'd like to see NZO use the eventual Pike River funds to acquire another O&G play, especially one with plenty of exploration targets near to producing fields.

And as NZO wants to stick around in NZ, i'd like to see a small punt (<$20m) on assisting LMP with there permits & potential too.

Just my thoughts as usual :rolleyes:



were nzo to take out ppp [and i think they will] then the interest in all the taranaki permits creaps up to economy of scale because no additional staffing required .


as regards ppp other interest up near barrow island, maybe nzo could inturn aquire tap oil interest in the permits to bring interests up to a larger scale.


M

[shasta]

were nzo to take out ppp [and i think they will] then the interest in all the taranaki permits creaps up to economy of scale because no additional staffing required .


as regards ppp other interest up near barrow island, maybe nzo could inturn aquire tap oil interest in the permits to bring interests up to a larger scale.


M

Good point, NZO now has a market cap > $500m & therefore is not a small fish anymore, we need scale for growth.

We need 25 - 50% of permits in future, & perhaps even look to go in 50/50 with AWE?

TAP & PPP have NZO presence & both would be on AWE's radar & perhaps even NZO's.

[Bixbite]

.

Buy and sell are mutual. If PPP were intended to sell to NZO (or merged with), it would not invite Mr Tom Prudence to join the company. It is not a children’s game.

Below is PPP’s announcement on 07 July 2008
SENIOR APPOINTMENT

“Pan Pacific Petroleum NL advises it has appointed Mr Tom Prudence, MSc Petroleum Geology; BScHons Geological Geophysics; FGS; as General Manager, Exploration + Production. This newly-created position reflects the commitment by Pan Pacific directors to expand the company's activities.”

Cheers

[the machine]

.

Buy and sell are mutual. If PPP were intended to sell to NZO (or merged with), it would not invite Mr Tom Prudence to join the company. It is not a children’s game.

Below is PPP’s announcement on 07 July 2008
SENIOR APPOINTMENT

“Pan Pacific Petroleum NL advises it has appointed Mr Tom Prudence, MSc Petroleum Geology; BScHons Geological Geophysics; FGS; as General Manager, Exploration + Production. This newly-created position reflects the commitment by Pan Pacific directors to expand the company's activities.”

Cheers

agree don't need 2 people of this calibre.

history shows ppp have not expanded activities though, apart in PR dept.

M

[bermuda]

.

Buy and sell are mutual. If PPP were intended to sell to NZO (or merged with), it would not invite Mr Tom Prudence to join the company. It is not a children’s game.

Below is PPP’s announcement on 07 July 2008
SENIOR APPOINTMENT

“Pan Pacific Petroleum NL advises it has appointed Mr Tom Prudence, MSc Petroleum Geology; BScHons Geological Geophysics; FGS; as General Manager, Exploration + Production. This newly-created position reflects the commitment by Pan Pacific directors to expand the company's activities.”

Cheers

Bixbite,
That is a good point. One that I had seen before but had overlooked. But , some times a few hundred thousand ( i.e. his salary etc ) is chicken feed if it leads to a better negotiation). In the Oil Industry, anything goes. You never know if they are making love or war. And that is a fact. Been quoted many times. Actually I think DS is better than that.

My bet is on NZO taking PPP out. But, hey, they may have better fish to catch. If it was me, I would hook into PPP and make it easy. Dont do the Deversification Route.

Diversification = Deworsesification (BUFFET and I agree on that ).

Kupe looking good. And I know that they have the PR machine to do a good job. Kupe is a real cornerstone for NZO.

[boysy]

Origin working on Kupe reserves update

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 1 May 2009

KUPE operator Origin Energy is updating its estimate of the size of the offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, field and new recoverable reserve figures are expected by June.



Origin said in its March 2009 quarterly report that the reserves reassessment – based on reservoir modelling and simulation of the Kupe central field area (CFA) – will follow the full analysis of information gained during last year’s three-well development drilling program.

That program saw combined constrained test flows from the Kupe South-6, 8 and 7 (sidetrack) wells exceeding 115 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of gas and 16,000 barrels per day of condensate.

Updated reserve figures are expected by the end of June.

Industry commentators say the reserves update should show “a refinement” of existing figures, not a “Tui-like increase”, referring to the nearby Tui oil field that has had an almost 80% increase of 2P (proven and probable) reserves, from the pre-production 27.9MMbbl to the latest 50.1MMbbl.

At the time of the final investment decision (FID) in June 2006, recoverable 2P reserves for the CFA were estimated to be 254 petajoules of sales gas, 14.7MMbbl of condensate and 1.1 million tonnes of LPG.

All offshore work associated with the $NZ1.2 billion (about $A948 million) project is complete, with only minor works left to do at the $NZ550 million onshore production station and two condensate storage tanks and associated facilities, including a pipeline link to Port Taranaki, New Plymouth, to finish.

Origin also detailed developments with its onshore Taranaki projects.

The eight-well workover program that started last November at the Rimu and Manutahi fields is now complete, with plans underway for some new development drilling at Manutahi.

Injection of sales gas into the depleted Ahuroa reservoir continued as part of the $NZ150 million development of Ahuroa into New Zealand’s first underground gas storage facility for majority-owned Contact Energy.

Oil and gas production at the Tariki, Ahuroa, Waihapa and Ngaere (Tawn) fields recommenced after being shut down in late 2008 due to modifications being made to the Waihapa production station as part of the Ahuroa gas project.

Structural interpretation of seismic recently shot over the Tawn and Rimu-Kauri areas was being undertaken to identify possible new drilling opportunities close to these fields.

Origin spent about $NZ41.4 million in the quarter on exploration and appraisal activities, and about $NZ47.9 million on development – mostly on Kupe and Ahuroa.

The total for the June financial year is almost $NZ59.3 million and $NZ122.5 million respectively.

The Kupe partners are operator Origin Energy (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (15%), and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

[boysy]

Austral goes into receivership

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 1 May 2009

INVESTEC Bank (Australia) has finally pulled the plug on financially troubled New Zealand junior player Austral Pacific Energy, calling in receivers in an effort to recover as much of the $US16.8 million (about $A23.1 million) it is owed.


After four loan facility amendments, Wellington-headquartered Austral said it had agreed today with Investec, the group's senior secured creditor, to the appointment of receivers to Austral Pacific Energy, the publicly traded Canadian corporation, and two of its New Zealand subsidiaries – Austral Pacific Energy (NZ) and Totara Energy.

The two New Zealand subsidiaries in receivership encompass substantially all the group's consolidated oil and gas assets and operations, including Austral’s only producing asset, the onshore Taranaki Cheal oil field.

Austral operates Cheal with a 69.5% interest, while Canada-listed junior TAG Oil holds 30.5%.

Austral chief executive Thom Jewell said Austral and its directors would be cooperating with the receivers – Perth duo Michael Ryan and Ian Francis, of Taylor Woodings, and Paul Sargison of Auckland’s Gerry Rea Partners.

“We need to have some meetings here before I can comment further,” Jewell told PetroleumNews.net this morning.

Industry commentators say Austral – which is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and New Zealand Exchange – had been between a rock and a hard place for months.

“I’m not entirely surprised, it was just a series of unfortunate events,” one told PNN.

“They spent too much on Cheal and production was lower than expected. They also got out of an oil price hedging contract at exactly the wrong time and that proved expensive.”

The Cheal development cost went from $NZ25 million (about $19.5 million) to $NZ30 million and the hoped-for production of 1200-1500 barrels per day never eventuated, with a maximum of about 700bpd. Present production is about 400bpd.

The $US65 per barrel hedging program initiated in 2006 initially meant increases in Austral's revenue from Cheal until oil soared to $US147 per barrel.

Then, shortly after Austral bought its way out of the hedge, oil tumbled to below $US40.

A second commentator said he hoped Austral could trade its way out of receivership rather than have its assets liquidated.

“That depends on Cheal, they need positive cash flow from the field to be able to do it, maybe they can.”

Last month Austral reported an operating loss of $US43.78 million (about $A61.8 million) for 2008 – more than double its 2007 year loss of $US22 million.

And its NZX share price has plunged during the past 12 months from $NZ0.90, hitting $NZ0.035, but rebounding to the present $NZ0.06.

[Nitaa]

For some time i have been a big fan of nzo taking out ppp. My thinking has changed primarily because of the current shareprice that ppp is at. i think about NZ$0.50cps is about a fair price price for ppp so at present their is not much of a gap. I dont think ppp holders would let it go for this price and i dont think nzo should pay any more. Therefore unless something significantly happens there will be a stalemate.

disc. hold both nzo & ppp

[Nitaa]

I thought this piece may be relevant considering nzo's interest and a couple of ppp's directors interest in ppp.

"Myers annoyed minority shareholders again in 1988 when Lion made a takeover offer for L. D. Nathan by offering Fay, Richwhite & Co $9.20 per share for its 35 per cent holding and all remaining shareholders one Lion share for every L. D. Nathan share. As Lion's share price was only $5.60 at that time, Fay, Richwhite received 64 per cent more than all other shareholders."

Heres hoping any offer (in the event an offer is made) will be void of any conflict of interest and minority shareholders getting shafted.

[digger]

I thought this piece may be relevant considering nzo's interest and a couple of ppp's directors interest in ppp.

"Myers annoyed minority shareholders again in 1988 when Lion made a takeover offer for L. D. Nathan by offering Fay, Richwhite & Co $9.20 per share for its 35 per cent holding and all remaining shareholders one Lion share for every L. D. Nathan share. As Lion's share price was only $5.60 at that time, Fay, Richwhite received 64 per cent more than all other shareholders."

Heres hoping any offer (in the event an offer is made) will be void of any conflict of interest and minority shareholders getting shafted.

Nita is that not why the takeover code was changed? Just can not do that anymore. Interesting how when you go back to the 80's the big insider boys always put a nice sounding polise on why they had to have more than the small frys.

[shasta]

Nita is that not why the takeover code was changed? Just can not do that anymore. Interesting how when you go back to the 80's the big insider boys always put a nice sounding polise on why they had to have more than the small frys.

Yes the takeover code was changed to ensure all shareholders receive the same offer.

This can vary when the 5% annual creep provisions kick in (for partial takeovers with holdings over 20% but not going after the company), or after an offer has lapse, usually down the track they can offer more to try & clean up the minorities.

Thus would usually occur when a company owns > 50% already & wants 90% control, should it only secure say 83%, they can "creep" up to the 90%, depending on the legalese in the takeover document!

[Nitaa]

cheers for that guys. Whilst on this subject, anyone care to comment or know what the circumstances around Brent King wanting to sell DPC to Rod Petrosonofabitch of Bridgecorp? If i am not mistaken, that offer was way above the current sp

[shasta]

cheers for that guys. Whilst on this subject, anyone care to comment or know what the circumstances around Brent King wanting to sell DPC to Rod Petrosonofabitch of Bridgecorp? If i am not mistaken, that offer was way above the current sp

I dedicated a whole thread to that piece of dirt, he won't be running even a rugby club raffle for 5 years.

Brent King is as dodgey as Bridgecorp anyway...

Avoid them all at all costs, seriously

[fish]

Markets up today and with Tapis at $57.85 us am I safe to declare we are at last seeing oil climbing back up ?
Opec has now had 8 months of progressive reduction in output and i am sure tui wont be alone in declining production elsewhere .

[airedale]

Hi Fish, if you go to the asx pages, and the crude oil thread you will see a post from Phaedrus on the 2/5 confirming the current uptrend.

[Bilo]

Markets up today and with Tapis at $57.85 us am I safe to declare we are at last seeing oil climbing back up ?
Opec has now had 8 months of progressive reduction in output and i am sure tui wont be alone in declining production elsewhere .

Yes Fish, not so many months ago NZD100 per barrel for Tui oil would have been met with wild cheers and a rocketing share price. Instead we have someone being able to hold the SP at or below 1.40. Burn the shorters I say.

[Bilo]

A nice close today, up 5 to $1.44, on very good volume.

It will be interesting to see if it can surpass the previous $1.44 resistance from mid March. If it can indeed break out $1.50+ (Sept 08 levels) could be in the near future. :)

With the POO rising, all as we will need is some coal coming out of the ground. :rolleyes:

AND a successful Kupe commissioning....:)

[Oiler]

AND a successful Kupe commissioning....:)

I agree Bilo........... we are not out of the woods yet :eek::eek:

[Nitaa]

I agree Bilo........... we are not out of the woods yet :eek::eek:Expecting a slight delay perhaps?

[digger]

Expecting a slight delay perhaps?

We have waited for Kupe since 1988 so another month or two to let the gas, oil and condensate rise in price would be acceptable to me.In reality the JV'er will not delay for that reason but certainly no need to rush as the product value is on a small and seemly constant rise from here on.
Good rise for NZO today and most of that is goming from Tui and Pike .I do not think that Kupe is getting factored in yet [I hope] as it is the big one and will have some significant impact when the market turns around.

[shasta]

We have waited for Kupe since 1988 so another month or two to let the gas, oil and condensate rise in price would be acceptable to me.In reality the JV'er will not delay for that reason but certainly no need to rush as the product value is on a small and seemly constant rise from here on.
Good rise for NZO today and most of that is goming from Tui and Pike .I do not think that Kupe is getting factored in yet [I hope] as it is the big one and will have some significant impact when the market turns around.

It's exciting aye Digger?

We know Kupe is a much bigger project than Tui, & it's just around the corner now.

Will keep accummulating away :rolleyes:

[the machine]

the awe presentation details tieke as an oilfield at d sand level and with a nice map

recall they did not drill to f sands and suspended the well


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00950377

M

[digger]

the awe presentation details tieke as an oilfield at d sand level and with a nice map

recall they did not drill to f sands and suspended the well


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00950377

M


Tieke results took a long time coming after the drilling finished and i clearly remember how frustrating the report was .I believe it was maybe but sort of suspended.Well i was suspended anyways as i could not work out what the given results were ment to be.Last report was that the JV were going to look at drilling in on a deviation and deeper but then months went by and no report. AWE has first listed Tieke as a success about 4 months ago but i still say on this drill we need a formal report on the state of affairs.Leaving it the way it is could lead to inside knowlede charges in the future,especially if it turns out to be a gusher.

[fish]

We have waited for Kupe since 1988 so another month or two to let the gas, oil and condensate rise in price would be acceptable to me.In reality the JV'er will not delay for that reason but certainly no need to rush as the product value is on a small and seemly constant rise from here on.
Good rise for NZO today and most of that is goming from Tui and Pike .I do not think that Kupe is getting factored in yet [I hope] as it is the big one and will have some significant impact when the market turns around.


With POO on an upward trend-now us $59 for TAPIS -it looks as if the timing of Kupe will prove to be forTUItus .
Announcing a good dividend could do wonders for the sp-as it did for PPP

[the machine]

Tieke results took a long time coming after the drilling finished and i clearly remember how frustrating the report was .I believe it was maybe but sort of suspended.Well i was suspended anyways as i could not work out what the given results were ment to be.Last report was that the JV were going to look at drilling in on a deviation and deeper but then months went by and no report. AWE has first listed Tieke as a success about 4 months ago but i still say on this drill we need a formal report on the state of affairs.Leaving it the way it is could lead to inside knowlede charges in the future,especially if it turns out to be a gusher.


how long have tui partners been sitting on this map?

nzo quartely had a nice map, minus tieke.

M

[geezy]

The runway has been cleared for NZO to take off today...

1/2mil shares in the first half hour

Up up and away :)

up up and away indeed mr yan kiwi :)

Is NZO still attractive at this level? cant seem to pick up enough of it around the 1.20 levels!!

[fish]

The runway has been cleared for NZO to take off today...

1/2mil shares in the first half hour

Up up and away :)

Tapis now over $60 us

PRC sp $90

Should see the sp respond further

[pietrade]

PRC sp $90



Now that's what iI call a positive outlook .

[fish]

I was thinking something was smelling a little fishy ;) lol

Its true !

Tapis now over $61 us---over $100 nz

The higher Tapis goes the bigger the divi is likely to be in August and the bigger the windfall Kupe is likely to bring .

With production constrained we can start predicting a continued rise in POO-although part of the rise is of course the falling us dollar.

[the machine]

is this report correct - the tui rig is in nz drilling for awe?


Rig Name: Kan Tan IV
Rig Manager: Maersk Drilling
Rig Owner: CNSPC
Competitive Rig: Yes
Rig Type: Semisub
Semisub Generation: 3
Rig Design: Friede & Goldman L-907 Enhanced Pacesetter
Rated Water Depth: 2,000 ft
Drilling Depth: 25,000 ft

Rig Contract & Operating Status
Operating Status: Drilling
Operator: Australian Worldwide Expl.


Contract start date, day rate, date available, future contract details, and more available via RigLogix.
Rig Location
Region: Australia
Country: New Zealand
Current Water Depth: --

Location start date, end date, well location, past and future locations, and more available via RigLogix.



M

[manxman]

is this report correct - the tui rig is in nz drilling for awe?


Rig Name: Kan Tan IV
Rig Manager: Maersk Drilling
Rig Owner: CNSPC
Competitive Rig: Yes
Rig Type: Semisub
Semisub Generation: 3
Rig Design: Friede & Goldman L-907 Enhanced Pacesetter
Rated Water Depth: 2,000 ft
Drilling Depth: 25,000 ft

Rig Contract & Operating Status
Operating Status: Drilling
Operator: Australian Worldwide Expl.


Contract start date, day rate, date available, future contract details, and more available via RigLogix.
Rig Location
Region: Australia
Country: New Zealand
Current Water Depth: --

Location start date, end date, well location, past and future locations, and more available via RigLogix.



M
Normally the first sign other than a company announcement would be a Notice to Mariners giving a keep clear zone. I thought Kan Tan IV was going to spend five weeks in Geelong for a gear upgrade and then do a bit of drilling in Australia before heading this way. Can't imagine that they could spud a well without telling anyone.

[boysy]

surely one of the jv partners would point out if the rig was heading here earlier than estimated wouldnt they. Does any one have a log in to give us more details

[Pipeline]

The Kan Tan IV is doing the drilling in NZ for AWE. Hoki plus 3 wells likely from October 2009.

It will come to NZ after the BassBasin drilling. The latest schedule is in the AWE presentation issued this week.

Cheers

Pipe

[shasta]

We've touched $1.50 a few times today. Wouldn't it be nice to have a close at that level or above. :o

nb: thanks for "setting it off" Shasta ;)

I sold off SIP today, & bought more FEA & NZO

Tapis > $US60 is very helpful to NZO

[the machine]

The Kan Tan IV is doing the drilling in NZ for AWE. Hoki plus 3 wells likely from October 2009.

It will come to NZ after the BassBasin drilling. The latest schedule is in the AWE presentation issued this week.

Cheers

Pipe

ok, the rigzone report is obviously incorrect.

M

[Nitaa]

I sold off SIP today, & bought more FEA & NZO

Tapis > $US60 is very helpful to NZOShasta, i am a little surprised. You have the straits of Mcdunk. Buying well into the uptrend. did you not think nzo was a buy around to $1.15 mark early this year?

[shasta]

Shasta, i am a little surprised. You have the straits of Mcdunk. Buying well into the uptrend. did you not think nzo was a buy around to $1.15 mark early this year?

Harsh comparison & the scotsman will be upset as well...:eek:

I had alot of my funds tied up in ADY, URA & all sorts of other cr*p.

Remember i held NZO for 3 years & sold just after production, i was always coming back in for Kupe ;)

[the machine]

now that the bottom of the economic slowdown / crisis etc may have been reached,
said crisis as predicted by macduck and mentioned several times, where is he with his wise words

M

[Sideshow Bob]

Great to see what a bit of a shareprice lift does for the level of activity.

Just recently this thread went for a week with no posts!

[corporateraider]

Better in my opinion to have no posts than the mindless flurry that we had with respect to a special dividend. Quite clearly NZO can put the money to better use! They bought 17 million shares in PIKE as a result of the rights issue and now have a paper profit of 5.1 million just on the heads.
In this time of distressed companies (and Pike was one of those) there exists supreme value to be had if you have the cash to spend. Clearly NZO has.
If you want a dividend from NZO the difference between the share price now and last week is about 4%. Work out how many shares that equates to (or get someone to do it for you) and sell them. You will be no worse off than you were last week and have the dividend you crave.
You will however be less better positioned to enjoy the growth to be obtained by clever use of cash that NZO seems to be saying they can achieve. I'm going with them.

Disc: Holder since share price was about 35 cents- continue to enjoy the ride

[Phaedrus]

No great change since the last chart, really. (Click here to view it) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=246523) Just a continuation of the uptrend. Note how the OBV uptrend accelerated before the price uptrend did. This is what is supposed to happen, OBV being a leading indicator. A nice example of volume leading price.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO59.gif

[fish]

Better in my opinion to have no posts than the mindless flurry that we had with respect to a special dividend. Quite clearly NZO can put the money to better use! They bought 17 million shares in PIKE as a result of the rights issue and now have a paper profit of 5.1 million just on the heads.
In this time of distressed companies (and Pike was one of those) there exists supreme value to be had if you have the cash to spend. Clearly NZO has.
If you want a dividend from NZO the difference between the share price now and last week is about 4%. Work out how many shares that equates to (or get someone to do it for you) and sell them. You will be no worse off than you were last week and have the dividend you crave.
You will however be less better positioned to enjoy the growth to be obtained by clever use of cash that NZO seems to be saying they can achieve. I'm going with them.

Disc: Holder since share price was about 35 cents- continue to enjoy the ride

Dismissing other,s opinions as mindless merely reflects upon yourself . Debating dividends is a legitimate activity and everyone is entitled to a viewpoint .
It was pointed out that ppp share price shot up in the days before and after a dividend was announced .
With nzo and the amount of dividend nobody has suggested a dividend should come before a good investment . All the investments you note and more would still happen .
With $200 million in the bank and revenues shortly to be multiplied my suggestion was that a relatively small dividend say 10 cents-costing $39m might not be out of order in August/sept-or a special one sooner ,
Many might consider it better for everyone than keeping it in the bank in us dollars earning less than 1% interest and likely to lose further value as the world economy improves.
You seem to forget that if you dont want a dividend you can just spend it on buying more nzo and so increase your percentage holding .Digger suggested not long ago nzo could consider a share option in lieu of dividend .
Giving dividends monitarises tax credits-far better to use them dont you think ?
ps-recently sold some nzo and tel to pay tax-would much rather have a dividend than sell shares-and this is better for the sp .

[corporateraider]

How could a 10 cent dividend on a share price of 1.40 be considered small? Its 7.1%. And if it was merely a special dividend before another final dividend then it could certainly not be considered small. And 40 odd million from the cash reserves would diminish them by a fifth.
And what if NZO's aspirations are to take out PPP? First that was not achievable while they had obligations to Pike and perhaps they still may have. But once that is disposed of they will need all the cash that they have.
And does paying a dividend grow a company's wealth? I cant see how, but maybe you can explain it to me. I agree that share prices typically recover after the payment of dividends and that share prices can rise in advance of dividend payments where shares are sought by yield seeking investors.
I do apologise for calling your thinking mindless if you put a lot of thought into it.

[Bixbite]

I do apologise for calling your thinking mindless if you put a lot of thought into it.

.

Life is tough Fish. Money (dividends) has been controlled and now even our thoughts.

.

[fish]

How could a 10 cent dividend on a share price of 1.40 be considered small? Its 7.1%. And if it was merely a special dividend before another final dividend then it could certainly not be considered small. And 40 odd million from the cash reserves would diminish them by a fifth.
And what if NZO's aspirations are to take out PPP? First that was not achievable while they had obligations to Pike and perhaps they still may have. But once that is disposed of they will need all the cash that they have.
And does paying a dividend grow a company's wealth? I cant see how, but maybe you can explain it to me. I agree that share prices typically recover after the payment of dividends and that share prices can rise in advance of dividend payments where shares are sought by yield seeking investors.
I do apologise for calling your thinking mindless if you put a lot of thought into it.

Thanks for the apology.
A dividend cannot of course increase a companies wealth . However in the case of nzo it would likely increase a shareholders wealth-if only because of return of tax credits .
It would likely be more than that-Nzo has more than 1/2 its cash hoard in US dollars which is now probably obtaining a negative return-this will do nothing for the sp
NZO has stated they will pay a reasonable annual dividend if circumstances permit . Now that bank investment returns are so low I think they should reconsider this policy-paying a smaller dividend twice yearly is surely preferable to leaving profits to be paid as a dividend in the bank -for the bank to make profits on rather than nzo shareholders .

[digger]

There is a good reason to annually pay a dividend and have a history of doing so. Banks still are the biggest lenders and as i discovered some bankers have little understanding of of share appreciation as compared to a regular dividend.I have argued until blue in the face without a dividend the company has more money and this should be just as valuable without a dividend. During the last option conversion i had a lot of trouble getting a loan simply because the company did not have a regular dividend history even though plenty of security was offered.It is crasy but we do have to be pragmatist and accept that banks do require dividends if any future monies are to be loaned to purchase shares in a given company.
Again shares in lieu of dividend is my prefered way to go.

[shasta]

Thanks for the apology.
A dividend cannot of course increase a companies wealth . However in the case of nzo it would likely increase a shareholders wealth-if only because of return of tax credits .
It would likely be more than that-Nzo has more than 1/2 its cash hoard in US dollars which is now probably obtaining a negative return-this will do nothing for the sp
NZO has stated they will pay a reasonable annual dividend if circumstances permit . Now that bank investment returns are so low I think they should reconsider this policy-paying a smaller dividend twice yearly is surely preferable to leaving profits to be paid as a dividend in the bank -for the bank to make profits on rather than nzo shareholders .

NZO has booked some nice foreign exchange gains of late, but now could be a good time to switch there $US back into $NZ. (At least get some better interest returns without the currency risk!)

Should they do that in time for the AGM then the accummulated gains to date could easily fund a fully imputed 5 - 10c dividend.

Of course dividends come down to individuals circumstances & preferences. (My position is that i'm not usually in favour of them)

I wouldn't want NZO paying out 5c twice a year & then coming back to shareholders again to fund an acquistion!

NZO management have a bit of a conundrum, they want to remain prudent & fully appraise all options, yet have a lot of cash earning bugger all interest in $US, & could be getting stung on the FX rate.

Then again with interest rates low, using some gearing/leverage to acquire something earnings accreditive would be a smart use of shareholders funds.

NZO without some debt is open to a takeover itself, & for a company with a market cap of > $500m, & with reliable, sustainable cashflows, NZO could easily fund a $200m loan.*

With alot of O&G companies showing signs of SP appreciation, perhaps NZO is missing a trick here, or are they waiting to sell off PRC to go after a decent acquistion (all of PPP or TAP, or perhaps swipe up LMP?).

With Tui tickling along nicely, the price of Tapis holding up & Kupe costs all paid for, & just awaiting first commercial production - perhaps the last piece of the jigsaw is Pike River.

When Pike is up & running, cashflow positive/profitable, then NZO will act?

* Any such loan could be repaid by the proceeds of the Pike River sale???

[the machine]

NZO has booked some nice foreign exchange gains of late, but now could be a good time to switch there $US back into $NZ. (At least get some better interest returns without the currency risk!)

Should they do that in time for the AGM then the accummulated gains to date could easily fund a fully imputed 5 - 10c dividend.

Of course dividends come down to individuals circumstances & preferences. (My position is that i'm not usually in favour of them)

I wouldn't want NZO paying out 5c twice a year & then coming back to shareholders again to fund an acquistion!

NZO management have a bit of a conundrum, they want to remain prudent & fully appraise all options, yet have a lot of cash earning bugger all interest in $US, & could be getting stung on the FX rate.

Then again with interest rates low, using some gearing/leverage to acquire something earnings accreditive would be a smart use of shareholders funds.

NZO without some debt is open to a takeover itself, & for a company with a market cap of > $500m, & with reliable, sustainable cashflows, NZO could easily fund a $200m loan.*

With alot of O&G companies showing signs of SP appreciation, perhaps NZO is missing a trick here, or are they waiting to sell off PRC to go after a decent acquistion (all of PPP or TAP, or perhaps swipe up LMP?).

With Tui tickling along nicely, the price of Tapis holding up & Kupe costs all paid for, & just awaiting first commercial production - perhaps the last piece of the jigsaw is Pike River.

When Pike is up & running, cashflow positive/profitable, then NZO will act?

* Any such loan could be repaid by the proceeds of the Pike River sale???


shasta, expect monies held is usd$ required to pay for tui drilling

IMO it is more cost effective to come into an aquisition at grass roots level comparedto buying a producing asset

if posters read everything they could about romania then will understand the play has an enormous amount of upside

time has now passed to buy a cheap asset

look back at what nzo have done in last periid - for starters 100% play west of kupe has huge upside.

northern nz basins have scope for nzo to go 100% for first couple of years before gets to dri$$ing time

nzo - do not borrow $$$

M






M

[Nitaa]

shasta, expect monies held is usd$ required to pay for tui drilling

IMO it is more cost effective to come into an aquisition at grass roots level comparedto buying a producing asset

if posters read everything they could about romania then will understand the play has an enormous amount of upside

time has now passed to buy a cheap asset

look back at what nzo have done in last periid - for starters 100% play west of kupe has huge upside.

northern nz basins have scope for nzo to go 100% for first couple of years before gets to dri$$ing time

nzo - do not borrow $$$

M

M
correct. NZO is virtually hedging their bet by having some in US and NZ currencies. As you pointed out, the US money will be to fund drilling activity.

Strong gains in oil and on the dow on friday may see the sp push through the magical $1.50 mark on Monday. For all you TA people out there the $1.50 mark represents a significant number. It is the price that many of us (including mwa) paid to convert the options. Therefore we may see some extremely strong resistance as this level where many will see this as an opportunity to break even. watch for volume and im convinced it will also give the bigger players scope to pick up a sizable handful of NZO without affecting the sp too much.

[digger]

correct. NZO is virtually hedging their bet by having some in US and NZ currencies. As you pointed out, the US money will be to fund drilling activity.

Strong gains in oil and on the dow on friday may see the sp push through the magical $1.50 mark on Monday. For all you TA people out there the $1.50 mark represents a significant number. It is the price that many of us (including mwa) paid to convert the options. Therefore we may see some extremely strong resistance as this level where many will see this as an opportunity to break even. watch for volume and im convinced it will also give the bigger players scope to pick up a sizable handful of NZO without affecting the sp too much.

Agree completely with your arguements Nita. It will take a hugh volumn to go from 150 to 160,then a small fraction of that volumn to do the next proportional step.
A stuck record with NZO faithful is to say you will never see NZO below price X again. Years ago before production it was one dollar.Myself and a few other had egg on our faces over that. Now i think shortly [weeks] we will never see NZO below 1-50 again. My only caveat on that one being the world does not completly fall into a deep depression,mass die off of dieseas or convert to the Amish religion. And if the world does convert to the Amish way of life i will have wished i invested in horses rather than oil.
Still from 1-50 to 1-60 is a long haul.

[fabs]

I wonder if NZO has maybe allready missed out on investing in a bargain, if and it is a big IF, the tide has turned?
In which case a good dividend would help to ease the pain.
Any takes on that?

[notie]

they sure have missed out on buying 'bargains' if there were such a thing to be had. I don't really think NZOG would know what a bargain and appear to be stunned rabbits in the headlights when it comes to buying other companies assets or farming in on projects. Rest assured they have passed up on some good ones given their technical team worry about risk. No doubt the company will follow past behaviour and the board will make the decision for them and throw their lunch at some turkey investment (there have been numerous ones in this companie's history).

They are not the masters of their own destiny given their minority holdings in their non-operated permits.

[Bilo]

the magical $1.50 mark ... represents a significant number. It is the price that many of us (including mwa) paid to convert the options. Therefore we may see some extremely strong resistance as this level where many will see this as an opportunity to break even.

Nita I doubt if those who have toughed this out since paying $1.50 (expecting the SP to go to and stay above $2.00) will fold at this point. Selling options converted at $1.50 is a loss because dividends have been much less than interest costs over this period and the options were frequently worth more than 10cps over their history. I certainly don't consider it break-even - individual investors may consider that there are better investments for them though - as many have over the last couple of years. $1.60 to 1.70 would be my "break even" range.

$1.50 may be a level where a 1 for 4 offer to PPP holders might be triggered...this is hanging over the NZO SP..

Returns from Pike and Kupe are heavily discounted by risk and inflated cost of money rates despite scheduled to come on stream within 6 months, if included in NZO valuations at all.

The POO holds the key and most commentators seem to indicate USD75 currently supports the industry while the world develops some alternatives. That would seem to support a continuation of more than NZD100 per barrel to NZO which is fantastic for producing assets. This time last year when people were considering the option conversion the NZO expectation was for over USD100 per bo (NZO activities report qtr ended 31 March 2008).

The nice thing about dividends is that they support long term holders to hold. Obviously not paying dividends forces shareholders to sell to realise any gain. Isn't that dumb? I think if I was honestly trying to have a neutral stance towards holders and traders, I would favour awarding quarterly dividends...paid annually if the amount was smallish..Dividends also help the imbalance between fundamentalists and TA traders - but that is a debate for another thread.

[shasta]

Nita I doubt if those who have toughed this out since paying $1.50 (expecting the SP to go to and stay above $2.00) will fold at this point. Selling options converted at $1.50 is a loss because dividends have been much less than interest costs over this period and the options were frequently worth more than 10cps over their history. I certainly don't consider it break-even - individual investors may consider that there are better investments for them though - as many have over the last couple of years. $1.60 to 1.70 would be my "break even" range.

$1.50 may be a level where a 1 for 4 offer to PPP holders might be triggered...this is hanging over the NZO SP..

Returns from Pike and Kupe are heavily discounted by risk and inflated cost of money rates despite scheduled to come on stream within 6 months, if included in NZO valuations at all.

The POO holds the key and most commentators seem to indicate USD75 currently supports the industry while the world develops some alternatives. That would seem to support a continuation of more than NZD100 per barrel to NZO which is fantastic for producing assets. This time last year when people were considering the option conversion the NZO expectation was for over USD100 per bo (NZO activities report qtr ended 31 March 2008).

The nice thing about dividends is that they support long term holders to hold. Obviously not paying dividends forces shareholders to sell to realise any gain. Isn't that dumb? I think if I was honestly trying to have a neutral stance towards holders and traders, I would favour awarding quarterly dividends...paid annually if the amount was smallish..Dividends also help the imbalance between fundamentalists and TA traders - but that is a debate for another thread.

Sorry Bilo, but i disagree over your dividend comment.

For me it's about how NZO's Exec's make best use of it's shareholders funds/capital when allocating it.

I can think of many better ways of increasing shareholder wealth than paying out dividends!

[Awamoa]

How about a Bonus Issue?
That gives those that require income a chance to sell their extra shares and those that want capital growth can hold on,and leaves NZO with the cash to purchase any opportunities as they appear.

[digger]

How about a Bonus Issue?
That gives those that require income a chance to sell their extra shares and those that want capital growth can hold on,and leaves NZO with the cash to purchase any opportunities as they appear.


Bonus issues do nothing except feed the feel good factor.A 1 for X bonus issue leave you holding exactally the same percentage in the company you held before the bonus .It especially does not carry on the regular dividend stream that lenders like so much. Shares in lieu cover all that we have discussed on dividends and allows room to catter for all the different points of view on this subject.

[corporateraider]

I am struggling to see that the time for bargains has past. Sure share markets have surged but only last week SME's were saying that it is hard to borrow money and if you can borrow it is expensive. And Sky City and others of the bigger companies obviously feel that bank finance is unlikely to be an option for them. So without access to cash it is hard to do deals and so the competition for purchases is somewhat limited.
And companies are still able to pick over the bones of those that have failed such as with CUO in Oz.
No I believe there are still bargains out there, just not so many.
I am with Shasta -let the company use the funds that they have in the best way possible.

[Bilo]

I am struggling to see that the time for bargains has past. Sure share markets have surged but only last week SME's were saying that it is hard to borrow money and if you can borrow it is expensive. ...So without access to cash it is hard to do deals and so the competition for purchases is somewhat limited.


I agree with some of what you say CR. Without reliable liquidity and cheap debt funding takeovers (with a cash component) are dead as the target can readily determine what the extent of your resources are. And the hunter rapidly becomes prey. With the POO at where it has been for the last months there has been no point in investing in oil therefore oil companies should continue to pay dividends (as per their dividend policy) due from their profits of past investments. The point about dividends is that companies take investment monies to make a return to the shareholders and if they can't pay dividends, and grow as well, they aren't worth investing in. If traders take all the profits who is left to invest in the sharemarkets - private equity, govt bonds will be winners..share markets will (continue to) stagnate. I am thinking here of all those poor buggers around the world who invested in share markets for negative capital gain over the last few years and received dividends at a level way below a cash deposit rate. The option to re-invest a dividend is always there. The option to not pay a dividend is one sign that the company is not generating enough cash.

I understand that NZO said they were negotiating to be able to use Kupe funding for other purposes - not being able to use arranged credit lines is another indication that funds are still very tight.

[Sehnsucht888]

NZO's underwriting investment in PRC has now doubled in value. (on paper at least), with heasd 1.10, and options 33c

[777]

Oil was up another $2 a barrel on Friday.

PRC is up 10 cents today.

All helps

[Nitaa]

Yankiwi. You ask a very important question and a question that is very subjective.

I think the best way is to keep your investing philosphy simple. I.E. When you bought your shares you should also consider what your exit strategy is. consider your risk you are prepared to take, timeframes etc. Also, what type of investor are you? More of a trader or long term investor.

In simple terms, try to have a plan. Everyone will have a different plan to you so its impossible to compeer peers to apples.

[Grand Uber]

Ignore the share price, buy part of a company

Buy companies that are cheap

Sell when they are no longer cheap

[GTM 3442]

Sometimes they are no longer cheap because they're not there any more. As I recall, Feltex got *very* cheap towards the end.

[Phaedrus]

YK, Given the 6 month timeframe you mentioned, I will assume that you are interested in "medium-term" trend trading rather than short-term trading or swing trading. You speak of the use of a fixed percentage trailing stop, so I will mainly discuss that approach.

First off, I don't think much of them and in fact never use them - I only put them on many of the charts that I post because I know that some people here do use them. Without a doubt they are better than no exit strategy at all but that is about as far as it goes. They almost invariably underperform other indicators and you can see that when I do plot them, they are usually the last by far to trigger a Sell signal.

Looking now at NZO, you can see that it is quite a volatile stock. If you bought at the trendline break or at point (1) your trailing stop would need to have been set at 16% to avoid your being flicked out of this uptrending stock. NZO would have to drop from $1.55 to $1.30 before the stop was triggered! If you bought at point (2) your trailing stop would need to have been set at 15% to avoid your being flicked out. Even if you bought quite late in the piece at point (3) your trailing stop would need to have been set at 7% to have kept you in thus far. By now you should be able to see that your idea of a 4% - 5% trailing stop is way too low for this stock. Even this relatively tight 7% trailing stop is very likely to underperform the simplest exit triggers such as a break of the price trendline or the OBV trendline. Trailing stops are the system for people that haven't got a system.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO511.gif

YK, you also speak of having a 10% profit target. I don't think much of that idea either! I am currently holding a stock that has risen over 100% since I bought it less than 2 months ago. Lucky I hadn't set a 10% target eh? Or a 20%, 30%, 50% or any other predetermined figure. Don't ever forget the old maxim :-

Cut your losers and let your winners run.

By setting profit "targets" you ensure that you will never, ever, have any big winners. Is that what you want?

[Grand Uber]

Sometimes they are no longer cheap because they're not there any more. As I recall, Feltex got *very* cheap towards the end.


Depends how you assess cheap, its not just a measure of price but also takes into account future growth, dividends, asset value etc

Seems to have worked for Warren B and Peter Lynch

[shasta]

Thank you Phaedrus for your post, all of your points are well taken.

I believe you may have missed a key point to my question. I understand the importance of using a stop loss to prevent a serious loss of initial capital. I'm questioning the use of a stop loss to prevent profits from eroding.




My concern is not about the portion of the trade that has brought me to a break-even point, it's how to best deal with it now that it is positive territory. The new stop loss (of profit) I'm suggesting would keep the trade in the black for me should the s/p in the future retreat to a level of 5% below the previous days close. IE: Closed today @ 1.53 so adjust the stop loss sell order to trigger @ 1.45 thus keeping me in a winning trade.

Does this make sense?

Allow your sell to align with mine, something over $2 :D

NZO is trending nicely, so dont even think of selling now!

[777]

Optical illusion.

[Phaedrus]

I understand the importance of using a stop loss to prevent a serious loss of initial capital. I'm questioning the use of a stop loss to prevent profits from eroding.YK, you have got Stop-losses confused with Trailing Stops. As you rightly say, a Stop-loss is used to prevent a serious loss of initial capital. Stop losses should be set before purchase and are never moved. If/as price action climbs away, they are left behind and become irrelevant.

Trailing Stops are a different animal. They only come into play once the entry has moved into profit and they are raised as the price rises. They ratchet up with new price peaks and are never lowered. They are designed to lock in profits, not to limit a loss like a Stoploss. What they are is a very simple, crude and relatively inefficient means of trend-following. They aim to let you ride an uptrend as long as it is strong and pull you out when the stock makes a fall that you regard as being of a significant percentage. There are better trend indicators available that would give earlier warning of any trend reversal, but as I have said before, a trailing stop is at least some sort of exit strategy and as such they are infinitely better than nothing at all.

Fixed percentage Trailing Stops are tricky to set. Too low a percentage and you get flicked out prematurely by what amounts to "market noise" and the uptrend goes on without you. Very demoralising. Set too high a percentage and you will have given the lion's share of your profit back to the market when/if the stop is hit. You can't even decide on a figure that seems about right for you because very volatile stocks need to have a MUCH higher Trailing Stop percentage than more sedate stocks. While it is possible to backtest individual stocks to find their optimum trailing stop parameters, most people simply make a stab in the dark, settling on a figure that sounds about right to them. Why/how did you chose 4% or 5% for NZO?

[shasta]

Will (won't) do Shasta!

Thanks.

I do have one question for you though Shasta... Why is the bear taller than the bull in your avatar? :p

The bears still rule the roost, the bulls have just come out for a stretch ;)

[Nitaa]

I seem to raise the issue every year. O know it will do no good but i like to get it off my chest. In a perfect world i would like to see employees get rewarded for excellence but I feel the standards that nzo set do not achieve this. oh well shet happens

[bermuda]

It seems as though NZO has formed a double top at $1.53

As I recall from a post on another thread (can't remember which thread) that this is a bearish symbol. Does my memory serve me correctly?

YK,
I know nothing about double tops ( but , yes, the experts say they are bearish ).

I just go for the fundamentals. Kupe and Pike are about to come on stream. Just need to get rid of all the doubters who exercised their options at 150 cents ( before oil went down ) and she will be away.

[upside_umop]

Hi Yankiwi,

Your memory serves you well, as it is bearish. But the double top isnt yet confirmed as it would require a close below the trough of the two peaks. This close would be below $1.49 in this instance.

[Snow Leopard]

It seems as though NZO has formed a double top at $1.53...

The two 'peaks' could not be closer together and I am sure need a few more trading days between them for it to constitute a 'double top'.

Double tops are bearish unless/until the price turns round when they become a 'double top with piked twist, degree of difficulty 5.3'. :rolleyes:

regards
Paper Tiger

Small print: This post does not purport to make any prediction as to the future direction of the share price of NZO or any company.

[digger]

The two 'peaks' could not be closer together and I am sure need a few more trading days between them for it to constitute a 'double top'.

Double tops are bearish unless/until the price turns round when they become a 'double top with piked twist, degree of difficulty 5.3'. :rolleyes:

regards
Paper Tiger

Small print: This post does not purport to make any prediction as to the future direction of the share price of NZO or any company.


This double top stuff sounds to me like gribbish. Was it not just a few weeks ago that NZO had a double top at 1-43 but the two at that time were weeks apart.To me it is world current finanical nerves being responsible for this second top.Also a high degree of uncertainy with Kupe and Pike commision and whether we have bought into Romania or otherwise.

[Chippie]

It looks like a good time to be in the market to lease oil rigs

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_rig

[notie]

Chippie, world rig count may be freeing up, but this has very little bearing on remote locations like NZ. It is still hard to get an offshore rig to NZ and companies will club together on this. AWE the operator of most of the permits nzog is involved in has contracted a rig for next summers drilling.

nzog only operates one permit and still have 2 years before they have to commit to drilling a well there, and I don't think they are ballsy enough or have the where with all or technical capability to drill there anyway.

[777]

A big drop in Tapis yesterday.

Could be an interesting open on Monday.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil




You would think there was someway this sort change would be picked up and fixed.

[OutToLunch]

A big drop in Tapis yesterday.

Could be an interesting open on Monday.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil




You would think there was someway this sort change would be picked up and fixed.

Whoops. Looks like she's all over then. Oh well, never mind. :rolleyes:

[digger]

A big drop in Tapis yesterday.

Could be an interesting open on Monday.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil




You would think there was someway this sort change would be picked up and fixed.

Tapis is at the give away of $4.27 a drop of 1313.35%
Never mind others were worse
Minas dropped to $2.07 a 2709.18%

Think we should all buy a hummer and go around the block B4 the cheap oil runs out.

[OutToLunch]

Thing is, how can a price drop by more than 100% without going negative? More economic magic courtesy of the Fed maybe? :confused:

[boxing_beaver]

yeh i was wondering that myself OTL!

oh well, there goes the kids college fund....

[digger]

How high? According to the Secretary General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Nabuo Tanaka, oil prices could go up to as much as 200$ a barrel in the next 4 years. A quick look back on the situation of last year when prices were at a mere 147$ a barrel maybe gives an idea of what the consequences may be if the prices goes a 25% higher.

The current relatively low oil prices give a respite

A word from the top by the most informed who should know,or at least have a fair idea.
Refer energybulletin.net

[Mr Tommy]

How high? According to the Secretary General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Nabuo Tanaka, oil prices could go up to as much as 200$ a barrel in the next 4 years. A quick look back on the situation of last year when prices were at a mere 147$ a barrel maybe gives an idea of what the consequences may be if the prices goes a 25% higher.

The current relatively low oil prices give a respite

A word from the top by the most informed who should know,or at least have a fair idea.
Refer energybulletin.net

Hi Digger

a more gloomy outlook in the Dominion today

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2421056/Oil-hovers-above-US-56

Heres the guts of the article ....

Oil fell nearly 4 percent toward $56 a barrel on Friday as dealers became increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for global energy demand after three top energy forecasters -- the International Energy Agency, the Energy Information Administration, and Opec -- recently downgraded their forecasts for global energy demand in 2009.
....
Opec, which has agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels per day of output since September, will meet on May 28 to revisit production policy.
Kuwait's oil minister told Reuters in an interview there was no need for further output cuts by Opec as he did not want to see oil prices go up too fast.
....
Despite a forecast by the IEA that world oil demand will post its sharpest annual decline since 1981 this year, oil prices have recovered from a low of $32.40 touched last December to hover between $50-$55 a barrel most of the month, tracking a broader rally in the equities market that was underpinned by hopes of an economic recovery.

[digger]

Hi Mr Tommy,
The difference between the two stories is the timing. Yours dealt with the immediate present {2009] and the damping effect of the finanical crises, mine was the stated comments from the retiring secretary of the IEA concerning the next four years.
Meanwhile i have to stock up on diesel today while your story still commands the floor.

[notie]

changes are a foot at nzog with their current exploration manager pushed aside and a nz oil veteran Mac Beggs being brought in as temporary manager while they advertise for a new manager. This company might go somewhere now....

[777]

Speculation or fact notie. No official announcements.

[fish]

Hi Mr Tommy,
The difference between the two stories is the timing. Yours dealt with the immediate present {2009] and the damping effect of the finanical crises, mine was the stated comments from the retiring secretary of the IEA concerning the next four years.
Meanwhile i have to stock up on diesel today while your story still commands the floor.


Price of oil is looking stronger as you predicted-Tapis now well over $100 nz.
I expected the sp would have risen more today but no doubt will follow the oil price in good time
Have also changed all vehicles to diesel . Bought a Ford Mondeo and surprised at how much fun it is to drive -and no matter how hard I put my foot down how slow the fuel gauge falls-and how little it costs to fill up .

[impacman]

Keep plunging that foot and the SP will go up!:)

[foodee]

Price of oil is looking stronger as you predicted-Tapis now well over $100 nz.
I expected the sp would have risen more today but no doubt will follow the oil price in good time
Have also changed all vehicles to diesel . Bought a Ford Mondeo and surprised at how much fun it is to drive -and no matter how hard I put my foot down how slow the fuel gauge falls-and how little it costs to fill up .

Of course there is RUC - topped up RUC last week just in it goes
up in the budget!

Cheers

[shasta]

Keep plunging that foot and the SP will go up!:)

PRC had a good day, im surprised it didnt rub off on NZO?

[zorba]

Oil price is looking good ..... pushed past US$60 earlier today:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_M9


Great to see that LIBOR and TED spreads are dropping .....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asWdymycze6I


I'm picking a good week for the global markets and for oil price !!

Have been partially diversifying out of NZOG into Aussie CSG and UCG companies.

Go VPE, BOW, LNC and CNX !!!!!

Z

[Nitaa]

PRC had a good day, im surprised it didnt rub off on NZO?

The V.W.A.P was $148.62 which is a truer reflection on the days activites. Look at the trades quite closely and you will see what i mean. For me it was in line with other oil stocks overseas and a very good day overall.

[zorba]

Last night the Nymex oil price crossed over to the July front month:

Oil price above US$60 ......

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9

Pity about the US housing data released yesterday -- held back the Dow and S+P 500 etc.
Europe had a good run overnight, and so did Asia yesturday.

Overall I'm picking the March low point wont be revisited -- everything may go sideways for quite a while but maybe the worst is over ?

Hope so ..... over last 6 weeks have been putting new money into the oil and gas (esp CSG and UCG) markets !!

Z