NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Mr Tommy]

Long time since weve seen over $100

From NZOG website....
Week ended 15/05/09
Average Tapis Price US$59.94
$NZ Equivalent NZ$102.44

[Casa del Energia]

Long time since weve seen over $100

From NZOG website....
Week ended 15/05/09
Average Tapis Price US$59.94
$NZ Equivalent NZ$102.44

Long and reasonably continous ramp up from the lows in the recession beginning. Major countires still somewhat belly up and yet West Texas beyond $60 already - - Future? -- Could be so bright for NOG, they will hand out sunglasses at the next AGM.

Roll on Tui Drill,
Kupe,
Kupe Drill,
Pike,
And as a side snack - Romania.

[fish]

Long and reasonably continous ramp up from the lows in the recession beginning. Major countires still somewhat belly up and yet West Texas beyond $60 already - - Future? -- Could be so bright for NOG, they will hand out sunglasses at the next AGM.

Roll on Tui Drill,
Kupe,
Kupe Drill,
Pike,
And as a side snack - Romania.
Hopefully chocolate cakes as well .
Fully agree-in around 3 months time with kupe producing as well as Tui -nzo could be back to having an income close to 1 million dollars a day . Then on top of this cake we might have a nice chocolate icing from PRC .
It seems strange that when we are so close sellers outnumber buyers with a sp of only $1.50 .

[fish]

Notice nzog is up 7 cents AU-taken from nzog website just now

[777]

Notice nzog is up 7 cents AU-taken from nzog website just now


Still at about 1.47 to 1.49 NZ. May have had a low trade last night. Still the way the barrel price is going it may be regular thing. Lets hope so.

[bermuda]

Still at about 1.47 to 1.49 NZ. May have had a low trade last night. Still the way the barrel price is going it may be regular thing. Lets hope so.

When I first joined this site it was courtesy of Gordon Ward, GM of NZO. ( possibly 7 years ago? )

Learnt a lot from you guys since then. For which thanks.

NZO would have to be one of the soundest oilers in the world ( I was thinking of Australasia.). Buy some.

I even managed to get my darling wife to buy this one! ( and man, she used to hate me dabbling in shares! .......I had some pretty severe losses in 1987-89, if you get my meaning )

NZO Just a matter of time.

[Crypto Crude]

You are very humble Bermuda...
I think alot of credit needs to go to you...

im sure there are thousands and thousands of people, and readers of these forums have done well from your advice (financial, and knowledge gained), at different stages... and I am definately one of them...

Ive only been here 2.5 years...
and boy, in that time
you have consistantly proven to be a stock magician like nothing else.....
rabbit in a hat type stuff...

you have a proven record even in the bad times when others like myself got it wrong...

NZO is a "thanks for coming type investment"...

bring back NZO options... they were fun...
:cool:
.^sc

[777]

Absolutely agree with you Shrewd. Always enjoy and respect Bermuda's posts.

[fish]

[QUOTE=777;256671]Still at about 1.47 to 1.49 NZ. May have had a low trade last night. Still the way the barrel price is going it may be regular thing. Lets hope so.[/QUO

A pleasant surprise with the sp dropping to $1.46 at close -so bought some more even though I am overweight in them

[manxman]

A pleasant surprise with the sp dropping to $1.46 at close -so bought some more even though I am overweight in them

I have this argument all the time. I say you are underweight in oil if, considering all your mokopuna and their future needs, you are worried about the rising cost of fuel. Young Shrewdie may have a different perspective but in my family circumstances we need about 20,000 barrels of oil reserves wrapped up to be neutral about the price of oil. After that we can put 10% of our portfolio into a rattling good share on financial grounds alone. Only after that are we overweight.

Disclosure - Grossly underweight in wine.

[fish]

I have this argument all the time. I say you are underweight in oil if, considering all your mokopuna and their future needs, you are worried about the rising cost of fuel. Young Shrewdie may have a different perspective but in my family circumstances we need about 20,000 barrels of oil reserves wrapped up to be neutral about the price of oil. After that we can put 10% of our portfolio into a rattling good share on financial grounds alone. Only after that are we overweight.

Disclosure - Grossly underweight in wine.

Fully agree-80% oil in my case -mainly nzo
-5% vector
-5%contact
-5% TEL
I dont invest in wine-a better use is to drink it

Cheers

[digger]

Fully agree-80% oil in my case -mainly nzo
-5% vector
-5%contact
-5% TEL
I dont invest in wine-a better use is to drink it

Cheers

On the sharemarket
97% oil
3% coal

Taking in all assets
80% oil
2.5% coal
17.5% property

On above figures oil % is getting down too much for my comfort. Remember Warren Buffett's line-- Diversation is only for those that do not know what they are doing.

[shasta]

On the sharemarket
97% oil
3% coal

Taking in all assets
80% oil
2.5% coal
17.5% property

On above figures oil % is getting down too much for my comfort. Remember Warren Buffett's line-- Diversation is only for those that do not know what they are doing.

Digger

What about gas?

Oil & Gas is a diversified enough portfolio :D

[Bixbite]

On the sharemarket
97% oil
3% coal

Taking in all assets
80% oil
2.5% coal
17.5% property

On above figures oil % is getting down too much for my comfort. Remember Warren Buffett's line-- Diversation is only for those that do not know what they are doing.

Taking in all assets
0.5% weeds

Note: The definition of weeds is those plants growing in the place where it is not wanted.

[zorba]

Price of Oil has cracked US$63 per barrel ...... apparently linked to overnight positive sentiment on New York Stock Exchange ...... Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all had good upward movement last night and the POO, and oilers, responded accordingly .... nothing but blue all over my watchlists -- NZOG finished the day at 150 cents !!

But weekly crude inventories will be announced latter tonight NZ time ....... if crude stocks show a marked increase or Wall Street sentiment changes then oil price will be back under pressure.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9

Z

[shasta]

Price of Oil has cracked US$63 per barrel ...... apparently linked to overnight positive sentiment on New York Stock Exchange ...... Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all had good upward movement last night and the POO, and oilers, responded accordingly .... nothing but blue all over my watchlists -- NZOG finished the day at 150 cents !!

But weekly crude inventories will be announced latter tonight NZ time ....... if crude stocks show a marked increase or Wall Street sentiment changes then oil price will be back under pressure.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9

Z

Better still Tapis currently sitting at $US65.02

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

With the NZ/USD @ 0.6195, thats ~$NZ105/bbl :D

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/ForeignExchange.aspx

[bermuda]

Better still Tapis currently sitting at $US65.02

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

With the NZ/USD @ 0.6195, thats ~$NZ105/bbl :D

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/ForeignExchange.aspx

I would venture to say that NZO is the best NZ stock on the Board. And the market still treats it like a wildcatter.

Kupe will give it the grunt it deserves.

And of course,,,there is PRC yet to come.

[blockhead]

Good news if the $ stays where it is.


Oil surged past $US65 per barrel in price on Thursday to a fresh six-month high after OPEC decided to keep output levels unchanged.

US crude oil for July delivery settled up $US1.63 to $US65.08 per barrel - the highest settlement since 5 November. London Brent crude rose $US1.89 to settle at $US64.39 per barrel.

According to the US Energy Administration, crude stocks in the United States fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week to 22 May before the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

[Mr Tommy]

Wow this shows what a bargain Tui has been. Tui was developed at a cost of US$274m. But theres obviously confidence creeping back into the industry if these guys are prepared to spend $8 billion getting oil out of sand.


On Monday, Imperial Oil Ltd. confirmed its $8-billion, 110,000-barrel-per-day Kearl oilsands mine 70 kilometres north of Fort McMurray will proceed, adding that it has shaved between $500 million and $1 billion off what it would have cost last summer.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/Rising+prices+fuel+optimism+renewed+oilsands+inves tment/1636521/story.html

[digger]

Good news if the $ stays where it is.


Oil surged past $US65 per barrel in price on Thursday to a fresh six-month high after OPEC decided to keep output levels unchanged.

US crude oil for July delivery settled up $US1.63 to $US65.08 per barrel - the highest settlement since 5 November. London Brent crude rose $US1.89 to settle at $US64.39 per barrel.

According to the US Energy Administration, crude stocks in the United States fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week to 22 May before the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

There is alway a bit of reverse psychology with these things. If OPEC believed that further cuts were necessary that would say to the market we believe the demand is not strong in the future and the price needs supporting.As they have done it it fears the market that shortages are sooner than many expect so the price rises.

[Casa del Energia]

Wow this shows what a bargain Tui has been. Tui was developed at a cost of US$274m. But theres obviously confidence creeping back into the industry if these guys are prepared to spend $8 billion getting oil out of sand.


On Monday, Imperial Oil Ltd. confirmed its $8-billion, 110,000-barrel-per-day Kearl oilsands mine 70 kilometres north of Fort McMurray will proceed, adding that it has shaved between $500 million and $1 billion off what it would have cost last summer.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/Rising+prices+fuel+optimism+renewed+oilsands+inves tment/1636521/story.html

At $65 - oil sands is still at least very marginal (?) - therefore the Canadians see a lot of upside to oil price. Actually - we'll all be wondering what it was all about when oil is back over $100.

Its going to be an interesting time with the drill programme coming up, combined with a rising oil price. This thread will light up again and will be gangs of fun - just like the 'good ol' days'.

[fish]

There is alway a bit of reverse psychology with these things. If OPEC believed that further cuts were necessary that would say to the market we believe the demand is not strong in the future and the price needs supporting.As they have done it it fears the market that shortages are sooner than many expect so the price rises.

Looks like the buyers fear shortages and soon the sellers get greedy so price should keep rising-tapis now at $66.96-well above nz $100 and good profit outlook for nzo .

[notie]

Guys you seem to be implying that once production starts at Kupe then this will have some positive effect on the NZOG share price. You will find that most of the institutional investors have already factored in Kupe on their valuation of NZOG so I don't see it changing the price too much. Kupe is mainly gas, but there is also some additional LPG and condensate which has the potential to greatly add to the value of this project. Unfortunately this is a small amount compared to the gas production. Where NZOG's projects value might increase is in near Tui field discoveries, so is very dependent on where AWE decides to drill. The other way is if NZOG gets into some decent exploration projects; something they so far haven't done.

[boysy]

Tui is still going to be the bread winner for nzo from what i understand kupe would only make more money if oil was sub US$50. TUI has been an undoubted success for NZO i wonder if Kupe can live up to TUIs reputation.

[fish]

Guys you seem to be implying that once production starts at Kupe then this will have some positive effect on the NZOG share price. You will find that most of the institutional investors have already factored in Kupe on their valuation of NZOG so I don't see it changing the price too much. Kupe is mainly gas, but there is also some additional LPG and condensate which has the potential to greatly add to the value of this project. Unfortunately this is a small amount compared to the gas production. Where NZOG's projects value might increase is in near Tui field discoveries, so is very dependent on where AWE decides to drill. The other way is if NZOG gets into some decent exploration projects; something they so far haven't done.

Price of oil is on a steep upwards direction
Current nzo sp is below recent Broker valuations
NZO have 15% stake in kupe
Expect production to be higher than estimates
Oil and gas prices likely to rise -should be up nicely with peak production-which will be more sustained than Tui .
Agree adjacent oil to tui likely to add significant value

[gazprom1]

Great finish alright. Any views on why someone pushed it at the close? Thanks

[troyvdh]

...great stuff...did anyone see if the 160 occured before 5.....

[gazprom1]

It did not...it was 1.54 pre 5.

[notie]

yes nzog has a very small 15% share in the kupe project so it will have very little effect on the value on the project to nzog's valuation. big holders have factored this in already. NZOG's minority position in its JV's means it has very little sway over the direction of the larger partners and operators.

there are much better oilers with much better potential upsides on the ASX. NZOG might look OK at the moment, but a bad result with the tui infill drilling will be a killer for them and reduce their production and profit

[Lion]

Things are still settling down as the market closes. PRC has a bid at 135!
I have to skite here - I sold at 160 just now even though my sell price was 158.
Oil seems to be on a definite up trend, Tapis over $67 now.
I still have plenty of NZO left to sell, waiting for $2.50 now

[gazprom1]

Notie,

Kupe is going to be sensational for NOG (IMO). Great long term gas contracts in place. Huge resource. Totally undervalued stock IMO. Tui has been exceptional and still is. Cash in bank. NOG is little risk with great upside potential.

[Lion]

Yep, Kupe's liquids value will exceed the gas value. And it's going to "keep it up" for 15 years or more (wish I could do that) It's going to be a solid earner for NZOG for many years to come. Lighten up notie, it's all good.

Data from Stockness Monster about the end of day sales: 5:01:04 pm price 160 quantity 460,567 change from last sale http://stocknessmonster.com/images/plus.gif6 value $736,907 Number of trades 39

I wonder who swooped in with a big order at day's end??

[fish]

[QUOTE=777;256671]Still at about 1.47 to 1.49 NZ. May have had a low trade last night. Still the way the barrel price is going it may be regular thing. Lets hope so.[/QUO

A pleasant surprise with the sp dropping to $1.46 at close -so bought some more even though I am overweight in them

Didnt sell at $1.60 either-NZO has a lot further to go !

[shasta]

yes nzog has a very small 15% share in the kupe project so it will have very little effect on the value on the project to nzog's valuation. big holders have factored this in already. NZOG's minority position in its JV's means it has very little sway over the direction of the larger partners and operators.

there are much better oilers with much better potential upsides on the ASX. NZOG might look OK at the moment, but a bad result with the tui infill drilling will be a killer for them and reduce their production and profit

Notie

I don't agree Kupe has been factored in, but if it has any delays/failures will hammer the SP, which i dont think will happen, here's why...

NZO's share price currently reflects (IMO)

- The Tui success & large cashflows/no debt
- The PPP play (where to from here?)
- The Pike River delays & subsequent SP slide (More upside to come)
- Lack of exploration drillling activity/tie in wells
- The price of oil

I believe should Kupe go into production as anticipated, the project is effectively derisked & the SP should move up to reflect the extra cashflows being generated.

The $1.50 resistance level now broken should provide strong support, so unless the price of oil heads south, the NZO SP should creep up on the expectation Kupe goes to plan.

I'm accummulating, the story is way too good, strong cashflows, no debt, possible M&A action & the Pike coal project about to generate cash

[neopoleII]

once kupe gets rolling, the steady flow over 15 years will be the bread and butter from which steady divis can come from. in this climate, this will attract alot of investors looking for divi income, and secure a sp worthy of the companies true value.

[troyvdh]

...when everyone is thinking the same thing....is anyone thinking.....

[neopoleII]

what are you thinking?
cause i cant think of anything

[shasta]

...when everyone is thinking the same thing....is anyone thinking.....

When the market agrees though, is that a bad thing?

Those that have been in NZO long enough, know the value & sub $2 is cheap IMO.

[troyvdh]

Ive held NZO for 20 plus years...dont get me wrong....its just that every man and his dog is saying 'oil.....she's heading up"..............do we remember "white gold"...."uranium bliss"....just a bit more "gun shy" now i suppose.....in fact i bought into NZO in the early 80,s

[shasta]

Ive held NZO for 20 plus years...dont get me wrong....its just that every man and his dog is saying 'oil.....she's heading up"..............do we remember "white gold"...."uranium bliss"....just a bit more "gun shy" now i suppose.....in fact i bought into NZO in the early 80,s

Well if populous opinion sparks the SP, look at the BOW thread :eek:

Oil may be heading north, but i dont see it going above $US70ish in 2009.

Probably the best outcome for all concerned this time around is the price of oil in a $US60 - 80/bbl band, enough to keep exploration & production levels up, but not the $US140+/bbl oil shock that didnt last.

Whilst we'd all like to profit from $US200/bbl oil, it aint gonna happen, at around $US100/bbl, other alternatives become more viable.

Same with the gas price, i'd like to see it incremantally creep up, to a more sustainable level

[impacman]

Well if populous opinion sparks the SP, look at the BOW thread :eek:

Oil may be heading north, but i dont see it going above $US70ish in 2009.

Probably the best outcome for all concerned this time around is the price of oil in a $US60 - 80/bbl band, enough to keep exploration & production levels up, but not the $US140+/bbl oil shock that didnt last.

Whilst we'd all like to profit from $US200/bbl oil, it aint gonna happen, at around $US100/bbl, other alternatives become more viable.

Same with the gas price, i'd like to see it incremantally creep up, to a more sustainable level


Quite agree with that comment. Slowly but surely (whether that be 1, 6, 12 or 24 months). Personally I wouldn't expect to see sustainable price > $75usd between now and end of year.

[Sehnsucht888]

Notie

I don't agree Kupe has been factored in, but if it has any delays/failures will hammer the SP, which i dont think will happen, here's why...

NZO's share price currently reflects (IMO)

- The Tui success & large cashflows/no debt
- The PPP play (where to from here?)
- The Pike River delays & subsequent SP slide (More upside to come)
- Lack of exploration drillling activity/tie in wells
- The price of oil

I believe should Kupe go into production as anticipated, the project is effectively derisked & the SP should move up to reflect the extra cashflows being generated.

The $1.50 resistance level now broken should provide strong support, so unless the price of oil heads south, the NZO SP should creep up on the expectation Kupe goes to plan.

I'm accummulating, the story is way too good, strong cashflows, no debt, possible M&A action & the Pike coal project about to generate cash

Completely agree Shasta. There has been Kupe has not really been factored in.

Unfortunately notie's tone has a familiar ring to it not seen in a while.....

NZO have stacks of cash, Major production in place. increasing assets.. How could a few bad "top up drills" be killers. Get real, this stock is sound.

[troyvdh]

..its getting worse....

[shasta]

..its getting worse....

By Saturday evening we'll have the brokers slapping "avoid" on NZO :D

BTW, NZO goes up when Tapis down, & BPT (who also get the Tapis price) go no where, go figure?

[friedegg]

By Saturday evening we'll have the brokers slapping "avoid" on NZO :D

BTW, NZO goes up when Tapis down, & BPT (who also get the Tapis price) go no where, go figure?
highesh volume of prc though,so something may be cooking cause of that,but yes nzo isnt even on the media radar when it comes to business reporting and yet it has to be the best company in the top 15 atm

[zorba]

Wota curve .......

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9


Next stop US$70 ??

Might be getting a bit overcooked ??

Z

[shasta]

Wota curve .......

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9


Next stop US$70 ??

Might be getting a bit overcooked ??

Z

Marubozu White candle??? (Ok, it's blue on this chart :D)

Can someone give a TA opinion on today's action, cheers

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=NZO&exchange=NZSE&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

[Phaedrus]

Do I detect a hint of barely suppressed excitement, Shasta? Let's see what I can do to settle you down a little!
(1) This is simply the continuation of a pre-existing uptrend that had an entry flagged last October.
(2) Look at the RSI plot you posted. This oscillator doesn't even consider NZO to be at OverSold levels. Not that it would matter if it did - on 3 occasions the RSI has gone above the OS threshold of 70 and these all came to nothing. NZO carried on to make higher highs. That's what uptrending stocks do!
(3) While this was indeed a "White Marubozu" (and these are obviously Bullish) don't get too ecstatic - look at 25/11/08, for example (small blue arrow). Proportionally, this was an even bigger White Marubozu, but it was February 2009 before its high was exceeded.
(4) This big daily rise was only on average volume, thus it is not evidence of hordes of avid buyers or indeed evidence of a single big spender.
(5) Look at the On Balance Volume plot. It barely registered a minute little rise.
(6) The OBV is quite close to its trendline - it would take very little downward movement to trigger a sell signal.
(7) With a volatile stock like NZO, movements such as yesterday are really little more than market "noise".

Now look at the big picture on this combined line/candlestick chart. It's just "business as usual" for NZO. See how :-
(1) NZO is in an uptrend.
(2) This uptrend is accelerating.
(3) The On Balance Volume is in an uptrend.
(4) This OBV uptrend is accelerating.
Really, Shasta, this is about as good as it gets. Don't bother celebrating (or sweating) the small stuff. Focus on the big picture.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO530.gif

[shasta]

Do I detect a hint of barely suppressed excitement, Shasta? Let's see what I can do to settle you down a little!
(1) This is simply the continuation of a pre-existing uptrend that had an entry flagged last October.
(2) Look at the RSI plot you posted. This oscillator doesn't even consider NZO to be at OverSold levels. Not that it would matter if it did - on 3 occasions the RSI has gone above the OS threshold of 70 and these all came to nothing. NZO carried on to make higher highs. That's what uptrending stocks do!
(3) While this was indeed a "White Marubozu" (and these are obviously Bullish) don't get too ecstatic - look at 25/11/08, for example (small blue arrow). Proportionally, this was an even bigger White Marubozu, but it was February 2009 before its high was exceeded.
(4) This big daily rise was only on average volume, thus it is not evidence of hordes of avid buyers or indeed evidence of a single big spender.
(5) Look at the On Balance Volume plot. It barely registered a minute little rise.
(6) The OBV is quite close to its trendline - it would take very little downward movement to trigger a sell signal.
(7) With a volatile stock like NZO, movements such as yesterday are really little more than market "noise".

Now look at the big picture on this combined line/candlestick chart. It's just "business as usual" for NZO. See how :-
(1) NZO is in an uptrend.
(2) This uptrend is accelerating.
(3) The On Balance Volume is in an uptrend.
(4) This OBV uptrend is accelerating.
Really, Shasta, this is about as good as it gets. Don't bother celebrating (or sweating) the small stuff. Focus on the big picture.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO530.gif

Thanks Phaedrus, i appreciate your comments.

My excitement is in the learning & identifying of more TA signals.

PS, the oil price went up again, this should assist the climb ;)

[troyvdh]

...now its really getting bad.....what will happen next is Mr Kim in n korea will say "fire"....and oil will rocket ...nzo will be worth $3....no sleep tonight.....

[patrick]

And now, thru PRC, they have the gold interest as well.

[corporateraider]

And don't forget the rough diamonds at Pike River

[Lion]

I'm not sure if this means much, but in early and light trading on the ASX today, NZO has climbed 4c to 129, which is about NZ 161.
Still on a roll??

Edit, up just 1 at 12:50, still very low volume.
But PRC is up 4.5

[troyvdh]

..the 1 and 2 shares being traded is apparently a computer generated currency play....a bit odd but i suppose what ever throws your hair back....

[Lion]

NZO up 6 to 131 on ASX now on moderate volume.
Tapis up $2 to almost $70 today.
The Minas market in Indonesia has jumped up $11 to $76.49
What's gonna happen tomorrow on NZX?

disc. hair partly thrown back

[arjay]

I took a trip around cape Egmont this weekend. From Opunake a bright yellow flicker can be seen out to sea at night on the horizon in a roughly SW direction. By day, two platforms can be seen from the shore. Am I right in thinking that the flaring is coming from Tui and the two platforms at Maui A and B?

The Kupe land facilities are looking great and close to go.

[Oiler]

I took a trip around cape Egmont this weekend. From Opunake a bright yellow flicker can be seen out to sea at night on the horizon in a roughly SW direction. By day, two platforms can be seen from the shore. Am I right in thinking that the flaring is coming from Tui and the two platforms at Maui A and B?

The Kupe land facilities are looking great and close to go.

Arjay... you were probably seeing Umaroa, Raroa (FPSO's) and Maui A. On a clear day/night the flares are quite spectacular.

Kupe looks good but I think still has a way to go to production.

[shasta]

Arjay... you were probably seeing Umaroa, Raroa (FPSO's) and Maui A. On a clear day/night the flares are quite spectacular.

Kupe looks good but I think still has a way to go to production.

Anyone know what is happening to the Tui gas been flared currently?

Doesn't the Tui JV partners have to re-inject this, or connect it to the Maui gas pipe?

I thought there were some environmentally issues regarding this?

[boysy]

a bit off topic here but has anyone else noticed that nzo have not issued an update in production from tui since the 20th of may. Usually they are quite religious in updating this information weekly on thursdays is this anything to be worried about i wonder ?

[fish]

NZO up 6 to 131 on ASX now on moderate volume.
Tapis up $2 to almost $70 today.
The Minas market in Indonesia has jumped up $11 to $76.49
What's gonna happen tomorrow on NZX?

disc. hair partly thrown back

Sure cant see the sp dropping with China buying into Aussie resource stocks and Tapis now over $70 .Global markets also looking strong .So I am picking the sp will keep rising .
I am wondering if Chinese interests were responsible for Fridays jump ?

[boysy]

are holders worried about the forex losses that nzo have on paper "lost" over the last few months . seems at at rough calculation be worth around $nz 35-40 million or around $0.10 a share cash backing. Its the same case with the other JV but not to the same extent due to NZO holding almost all there cash in USD ?

[zorba]

Nymex intra-day electronic front month light crude pushes further up:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9


Nymex front month end of day light crude looks good -- maybe too good -- pretty steep trend and RSI nearly off da scale:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CL_/79


Global oil prices all above US$65, Tapis and Minas above US%70:

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil


Global Stock Market indices doing well:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/index.html


How will it go today for local Australasian oil and gas companies after Friday's and Monday's good performances ??

Z

.

[Nitaa]

solid volume today. looking a bit interesting.

[COLIN]

solid volume today. looking a bit interesting.

I would say "confusing" rather than interesting. Why has price taken a skid, on a day when oil price is up again and world share markets are showing renewed confidence? Surely the weakening US dollar doesn't account for this lack-lustre performance? Also, Pike is getting close to actually shipping, and Kupe completion is drawing ever-nearer. And Australian oilers are up today.

(By the way, in case anyone should ask, yes, it is many months since I last contributed to this forum - not that I expect anyone to have noticed my absence, which, I hasten to assure, was not due to illness. )

[Lego_Man]

Profit taking.

Fear not.

[Lion]

Also, I think Friday's big rise at close was not normal market trading (either insto's book-squaring or that Lotto winner investing)

Considering that, I reckon today's sp is not bad going.

Lot's more to come though : )

[fish]

I would say "confusing" rather than interesting. Why has price taken a skid, on a day when oil price is up again and world share markets are showing renewed confidence? Surely the weakening US dollar doesn't account for this lack-lustre performance? Also, Pike is getting close to actually shipping, and Kupe completion is drawing ever-nearer. And Australian oilers are up today.

(By the way, in case anyone should ask, yes, it is many months since I last contributed to this forum - not that I expect anyone to have noticed my absence, which, I hasten to assure, was not due to illness. )

You havnt mentioned why you havnt posted .Now you mention it we have missed you on ST.
Its very noticeable that when people feel down -as many investors did as the market hit rock bottom very few were in the mood to post .
The fact that people are posting again is a more positive-even optimistic that market sentiment has changed
This is a time to get fully invested again !

[biker]

I
(By the way, in case anyone should ask, yes, it is many months since I last contributed to this forum - not that I expect anyone to have noticed my absence, which, I hasten to assure, was not due to illness. )

Actually, did notice! Out of the blue you crossed my mind earlier today and I did think you may have been crook. Glad you weren't and welcome back.

[corporateraider]

You havnt mentioned why you havnt posted .Now you mention it we have missed you on ST.
Its very noticeable that when people feel down -as many investors did as the market hit rock bottom very few were in the mood to post .
The fact that people are posting again is a more positive-even optimistic that market sentiment has changed
This is a time to get fully invested again !

Fish, it just ain't that easy to get fully invested anymore. Last year when I wanted to buy 50k of NZO I took the reasonable approach and rang the bank and told them I wanted to do 50k of renovations to the house. They asked me a few questions and a couple of days later the money was waiting to uplift.
This year I did the same thing and the guy said "what renovations are you doing?" Without thinking I said "I'm pushing out the kitchen!" OMG- he wanted a building consent.Imagine the cost of that on 50k of shares- no margin left.
Never mind! By the afternoon I was re-carpeting and a new kitchen; and no building consent.
I am thinking the next 50k might be harder. I wonder if they would believe the bathroom again?

[fish]

Fish, it just ain't that easy to get fully invested anymore. Last year when I wanted to buy 50k of NZO I took the reasonable approach and rang the bank and told them I wanted to do 50k of renovations to the house. They asked me a few questions and a couple of days later the money was waiting to uplift.
This year I did the same thing and the guy said "what renovations are you doing?" Without thinking I said "I'm pushing out the kitchen!" OMG- he wanted a building consent.Imagine the cost of that on 50k of shares- no margin left.
Never mind! By the afternoon I was re-carpeting and a new kitchen; and no building consent.
I am thinking the next 50k might be harder. I wonder if they would believe the bathroom again?

Last year-very bad timing -I started margin lending-borrowed a lot of money using my shares as security-it was all very easy-dont know if it still is as easy to margin lend but havnt had my limit reduced.

After going through a tough time with significant paper losses I managed to hold on and am now well up .

My interest rate is 6.4 % -tax deductible-and I am invested in companies that pay at least that .

[digger]

Last year-very bad timing -I started margin lending-borrowed a lot of money using my shares as security-it was all very easy-dont know if it still is as easy to margin lend but havnt had my limit reduced.

After going through a tough time with significant paper losses I managed to hold on and am now well up .

My interest rate is 6.4 % -tax deductible-and I am invested in companies that pay at least that .
Tops to you Fish for holding on through the margin lending calls.My son had three from realistate investment. I have always been aware of your situation and am pleased to know you are pasted the worst.
Going back some years now many of us holders [not Fish] used to have lunch with the directors after the AGM. I seem to be about the only one still in NZO from those days and now even at a higher committment level. I am still here and loyality has nothing to do with it. It is only a stone,s throw away now and NZO will have three sources of income.This is certain and to now invest otherwise is a blue sky risk that is behind NZO.Not knocking blue sky investing but it comes with high risk,with limited certainty.
So Fish shall we meet at this years AGM? What about dinner on me afterward or before if it suits better. Time we met up.Last Annual report we were 18 and 19 as biggest holders in this company.
Cheers till then

[COLIN]

Actually, did notice! Out of the blue you crossed my mind earlier today and I did think you may have been crook. Glad you weren't and welcome back.
Biker and Fish: Thanks for noticing, and for the welcome back. I have been out of the country for quite a bit, over the last 12 months, but Fish has probably put his finger on a key reason for my absence from the forum: like many, I wish I had sold up EVERYTHING towards the end of 2007 (should have followed Phaedrus more closely and sold into weakness) but I kept holding on and thought I could preserve the value of my portfolio by rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, e.g. by overweighting on Fuel, Food and Healthcare stocks, but we kept subsiding. Also, I felt that maybe I had been listening to too much "chatter" on the forum, leading me to some unwise moves such as chasing smaller Australian oil, mining and alternative energy stocks, so I decided I should experience a period of "Sharetrader Abstinence"!
However, I have had one or two good breaks in Aussie stocks, such as buying back into RIO at $36, and ORI at $12, as I considered them both to have been unduly oversold. And I have stuck throughout with NZO, which constitutes about 20% of my portfolio, having initially bought in at 30c in 2003.
So, on a glorious sunny day here today, and with all the "green shoots" that are sprouting in the garden as well as in the global economic scene, I am feeling much more encouraged. And a lot wiser (but that is what we all said after going through the 1987 crash! Ah, how easy it is to forget the lessons of the past and to convince ourselves that "this time it will be different")
Thanks again, chaps, and lets all enjoy the recovery.
By the way, Digger, I seem to recall that you are located somewhere in the Waikato - did you buy that Lotto ticket in Cambridge, and take the opportunity to increase your holdings in NZO - and possibly PRC????

[notie]

news on petroleum net about kupe reserves

Origin working on Kupe reserves update

Still in New Zealand, Origin Energy is working on updating the estimated size of its Kupe gas field, offshore Taranaki, with new recoverable reserve figures expected by June.

These new figures will include information from last year’s development drilling program, which consisted of the Kupe South-6, 8 and 7 wells that had combined constrained test flows exceeding 115 million cubic feet of gas and 16,000 barrels of condensate per year.

However, punters hoping for a “Tui-like increase” may be disappointed as some commentators told PetroleumNews.net the update would show a refinement of existing reserves.

Meanwhile, the company has completed an eight-well workover program at the Rimu and Manutahi fields, and is planning to carry out new development drilling at Manutahi.

[arjay]

news on petroleum net about kupe reserves

These new figures will include information from last year’s development drilling program, which consisted of the Kupe South-6, 8 and 7 wells that had combined constrained test flows exceeding 115 million cubic feet of gas and 16,000 barrels of condensate per year.

.


I would hope for a considerable upgrade from 300,000 cf and 44 barrels per day.

PS Digger, I'm still about but don't go to the AGM now that it's been moved to Wellington.

[fish]

Tops to you Fish for holding on through the margin lending calls.My son had three from realistate investment. I have always been aware of your situation and am pleased to know you are pasted the worst.
Going back some years now many of us holders [not Fish] used to have lunch with the directors after the AGM. I seem to be about the only one still in NZO from those days and now even at a higher committment level. I am still here and loyality has nothing to do with it. It is only a stone,s throw away now and NZO will have three sources of income.This is certain and to now invest otherwise is a blue sky risk that is behind NZO.Not knocking blue sky investing but it comes with high risk,with limited certainty.
So Fish shall we meet at this years AGM? What about dinner on me afterward or before if it suits better. Time we met up.Last Annual report we were 18 and 19 as biggest holders in this company.
Cheers till then


Hi Digger,
I have now been invested in NZO for 5 years and still not attended an AGM .
As you know I massively increased my holding at a very unfortunate time thanks to margin lending .
The market now appears to be awakening to the value in NZO.
You may be aware that ABN amro craigs have recently valued NZO at $1.90 and forcast a dividend of 12 cents plus imputation credits.
We may soon be rewarded for our loyalty .
Plus another rate cut next week seems likely-so a further fall in interest rates and exchange rates and more value to nzo !
Its starting to look good much sooner than expected last time we spoke .

Have been very busy recently but hope I will be able to get to the AGM this year-your kind invitation is a big incentive .

[friedegg]

12 cents dividend is pathetic,watch the share fall again considerably if this is fact

[MPC]

12 cents is quite a good yield in my books.
Can't please everyone.

Cheers,
MPC

[digger]

12 cents dividend is pathetic,watch the share fall again considerably if this is fact

I do not want a dividend that big for the same reason outlined b4. About 7.5 cents would be tonnes and would leave plenty for future exploration and and acquisitions. What i would really like is info on this Romanian deal. That like the PPP arrangment is maybe on maybe off depending on how each respective govt feels . Maybe also another 15 % blocking holding in another undervalued oiler.Certainly plenty around and sure to lift soon with crude slowly rising.Now b4 i get shot down with the counter arguement i am well aware of the 12 cents dividend then we each buy our own holdings. To me it is just more efficient if NZO does this as we as individuals can not achieve a blocking holding that pay handsomely when sold.
Good finish today at 1-62 up 7 cents

[corporateraider]

12 cents on a share price of 1.60 is 7.5%. Thats good for any share and great for a growth share!
Have you thought about the security of a finance company? Or horses or lotto if you want a really high return.

[fish]

12 cents on a share price of 1.60 is 7.5%. Thats good for any share and great for a growth share!
Have you thought about the security of a finance company? Or horses or lotto if you want a really high return.

I havnt seen the report but if its true and if fully imp credits/witholding tax then it would be worth 18 cents-enough I suggest would boost the value of the share in the eye of the average investor to over $2 .

[Grimy]

12 cents dividend is pathetic,watch the share fall again considerably if this is fact

It sounds like a good return to me. All the arguements for/against dividends and size of same have been aired over and over.
You want a higher dividend, you look for another company. You're happy with it, great.
It is not for posters to dictate to the company (as much as that appeals), they will do what they will do. It is then up to shareholders to make their own decisions on sell/hold/buy.

[foodee]

12 cents dividend is pathetic,watch the share fall again considerably if this is fact

Fried...

Interested in your reasoning as to why the sp will fall.

[arjay]

You'd need to have more than 2 bucks in the bank to get 12c back.

[neopoleII]

i have been talking about divis from nzo for years, if this 12c divi is to be realised i'd be very happy indeed. id be very happy with 10c, anything less you would have to question or ask the board what they have on the drawing board and how serious any potentional buyins or farm ins are and time frames.
leaving shareholder cash rotting in a bank account isnt good enough without an actional reason.
time for the board to share with the sharholders what they have achevied with our warchest. if they can say they are in genuine negotiations..... fine.
if not, its about time the shareholders get rewarded like the board and ceo does.

[arjay]

i have been talking about divis from nzo for years, if this 12c divi is to be realised i'd be very happy indeed. id be very happy with 10c, anything less you would have to question or ask the board what they have on the drawing board and how serious any potentional buyins or farm ins are and time frames.
leaving shareholder cash rotting in a bank account isnt good enough without an actional reason.
time for the board to share with the sharholders what they have achevied with our warchest. if they can say they are in genuine negotiations..... fine.
if not, its about time the shareholders get rewarded like the board and ceo does.


I like Diggers earlier idea of issuing a fat divvie at the same time as giving shareholders a juicy incentive to reinvest back in NZO. I agree that as long as the CEO and board recieve no-risk rewards from the companies performance the shareholders should recieve the same. Alternatively, let's see them get paid in shares instead of cash.

[MPC]

Would you approve of a DRIP scheme then arjay?
Would this be an option or does it mean more shares on issue therefore dilution.
For the holder though it saves paying brokerage.

Cheers,
MPC

[shasta]

Would you approve of a DRIP scheme then arjay?
Would this be an option or does it mean more shares on issue therefore dilution.
For the holder though it saves paying brokerage.

Cheers,
MPC

The Tapis price is now at $US72.30/bbl & is now trading above the 3 year average Tapis price ($US72.09) ;)

With the USD/NZD @ 0.6262, we are now getting ~$NZ115/bbl

With PRC now fully funded into production, KUPE debt repaid, & oil prices consistently over $NZ100/bbl, there probably is some scope to pay a dividend & utilise some tax credits, now we are into a new tax year.

With approx 385m shares on issues:

385m x 0.05cps = $19m (a similiar figure to what PPP paid out :rolleyes:)

I guess incorporating every's opinions on paying out dividends, NZO can easily sustain paying 5cps as an interim & final dividend, or 10cps total.

If that were to happen, i'd be happy with a DRP scheme at say a 2.5% discount.

10c/160c = yield of 6.25% tax paid, pretty good for an O&G company!

I'll be "averaging up" again this week

[digger]

Would you approve of a DRIP scheme then arjay?
Would this be an option or does it mean more shares on issue therefore dilution.
For the holder though it saves paying brokerage.

Cheers,
MPC

But MPC the dilution is only for those that take the dividend in cash. In fact if you were to take all your dividend as shares in lieu [assuming such a scheme came into existance] you would not experience dilution but in fact would have the opposite effect in that your precentage of the company would increase. It would only not increase if everyone took up the lieu option which is highly unlikely.
Shares in lieu of dividend seem to be the only way to let everyone do what they want apart from having your cake and eating it.
But yes we certainly do need to have more info on acquisition ,farmins or more drills. The only problem here is that we can not want them in such a way that tells and forarms the opposition of what we are doing or hope to be doing.

[Bixbite]

i'd be happy with a DRP scheme at say a 2.5% discount.



Hi,

I have questions on Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) scheme.

1. If I participated in the DRP scheme, do I have to pay income tax? (Including imputation credit)
2. Based on current share price $1.60, a 2.5% discount is 4 cents, I doubt it is attractive enough.
3. What is the difference between bonus shares and DRP scheme?


Cheers

[upside_umop]

Hi,

I have questions on Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) scheme.

1. If I participated in the DRP scheme, do I have to pay income tax? (Including imputation credit)
2. Based on current share price $1.60, a 2.5% discount is 4 cents, I doubt it is attractive enough.
3. What is the difference between bonus shares and DRP scheme?


Cheers

1. The DRP scheme will mean your obligations are the same as receiving a dividend. If you are on a 38% tax rate, your tax obligation will be 5% of the gross dividend (if fully imputed), whether it is reinvested or not. Obviously this obligation will change depending on amount of imputation credits attached.

2. 2.5% is around the norm, on a trade weighted basis over a specified time period before an allocation of shares is made.

3. Theres a couple of ways you can look at this.
Tax wise:
Bonus issue - has to be accounted for in your IR3 tax return as income, therefore you are taxed.
DRP - Same as dividends and your oblgation is dependent on your marginal tax rate and imputation credits with the dividend.

Change in relative shareholding?:
No difference if all shareholders elected to participate in the DRP, although as Digger says, this is highly unlikely to happen as the likes of fish et al like a dividend to pay margin lending costs/supplement income. Therefore if you participate in a DRP, it is almost certainty that you gain greater exposure to future company earnings, whereas a bonus issue only keeps the shareholder stakes the same as prior - bonus issues are pretty much a waste of administration costs if you ask me. A buy back is the opposite, thats what Buffet does.

Hope that makes a little sense.

[sideline]

1. The DRP scheme will mean your obligations are the same as receiving a dividend. If you are on a 38% tax rate, your tax obligation will be 5% of the gross dividend (if fully imputed), whether it is reinvested or not. Obviously this obligation will change depending on amount of imputation credits attached.


Imputation levels are changing to 30% (from 33%) with the changing company tax rate, aren't they?

From IRD website:


Limitations

* The amount of imputation credits that a company can attach to any dividend distribution is capped, relative to the amount of the dividend. This maximum imputation ratio is currently 30:70, meaning up to $30 of imputation credits can be attached to every $70 of dividends or, in other terms, the gross dividend can include imputation credits up to 42.85% of the dividend's cash value amount.

[upside_umop]

yeah, your right! still stuck in the old days....or maybe just what a few beers do!

[Bixbite]

Change in relative shareholding?:
No difference if all shareholders elected to participate in the DRP, ............... whereas a bonus issue only keeps the shareholder stakes the same as prior - bonus issues are pretty much a waste of administration costs if you ask me. A buy back is the opposite, thats what Buffet does.



Thank you for the specification. Can I ask one more question?

A buy back is good (my impression), that’s what Buffet does. – Why NZO not do a buy back instead of paying a dividend?

Is it because of the company is not in the criteria? - And what the criteria are?

Thanks again.

[Nitaa]

Thank you for the specification. Can I ask one more question?

A buy back is good (my impression), that’s what Buffet does. – Why NZO not do a buy back instead of paying a dividend?

Is it because of the company is not in the criteria? - And what the criteria are?

Thanks again.I think you have to look at what is a buy back and what does it achieve. I remember many the sp was languishing around $1.20 earlier this year and shareholders were screaming out for the company to buy back some of the stock. At the time i was personally against it as i saw the drop in sp as an overaction and with volatility any buy back may have been a waste of time. Although the sp was at a discount imo it would have been a knee jerk reaction to do a buy back.

Right now, nzo has plenty of cash with more to come. By having such a large xash reserve, nzo has many different options available. They can grow, giv dividend, share buy back, aquisitions etc. Its a healtyh position to be in. So getting back to your original question about buy back, the sp is not at a significant discount at present and would achive little apart from giving some big holders an exit strategy. If we go by what nzo have indicated, they need money for the dividend and also want cash available for opportunities that may present themselves along the way.

[Bixbite]

Nita,

I think your buy back is from the market. Mine is from shareholders.

Cheers

[COLIN]

Nita,

I think your buy back is from the market. Mine is from shareholders.

Cheers
What is the difference Bixbite? Unless you mean some sort of "forced" buyback for all shareholders, on a pro rata basis?

[COLIN]

The share price is behaving in a rather silly way today, with PRC having announced that all the ventilation issues have been dealt with, on time and within budget, and PRC sp goes up. Kupe commissioning is drawing ever closer, too, with no apparent glitches. I know that the oil price went down slightly on Friday but that is only a very small blip on a steadily rising trend.
But markets don't act irrationally, do they! Do they!! DO THEY!!!

[The BOWMAN]

The share price is behaving in a rather silly way today, with PRC having announced that all the ventilation issues have been dealt with, on time and within budget, and PRC sp goes up. Kupe commissioning is drawing ever closer, too, with no apparent glitches. I know that the oil price went down slightly on Friday but that is only a very small blip on a steadily rising trend.
But markets don't act irrationally, do they! Do they!! DO THEY!!!

um... the share price dropped 3 cents when I checked it. That's very very minor and I wouldn't call it irrational. Did you just bought a big package or something?

[fish]

The share price is behaving in a rather silly way today, with PRC having announced that all the ventilation issues have been dealt with, on time and within budget, and PRC sp goes up. Kupe commissioning is drawing ever closer, too, with no apparent glitches. I know that the oil price went down slightly on Friday but that is only a very small blip on a steadily rising trend.
But markets don't act irrationally, do they! Do they!! DO THEY!!!

This is all part of the fun and opportunity of the market .
If it didnt behave irrationally we wouldnt be able to get such cheap buys .
If it was rational in my honest opinion the sp would be over $2.00 now
Anyway I dont think we will have too much longer to wait-a good dividend announcement in august could create a big jump in the sp

[Phaedrus]

The share price is behaving in a rather silly way today.... I know that the oil price went down slightly on Friday but that is only a very small blip on a steadily rising trend. As is today's "plunge", Colin! I reckon you must be standing too close to the chart! NZO is a fairly volatile stock and you need to give it plenty of room to breathe. In the course of its current (8 month) uptrend, NZO has dropped by as much as 16% at times with falls of up to 22 cents. You are going to have to harden up! A 3 cent drop on a day when the market is down overall is meaningless, just market noise.


But markets don't act irrationally, do they! Do they!! DO THEY!!! Only in the short term, Colin. Look at the big picture and unlax. If you really do insist on worrying, at least wait for NZO to break below its current confirmed trendline. You could start getting ready to worry when the OBV stops rising.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO68.gif

[COLIN]

um... the share price dropped 3 cents when I checked it. That's very very minor and I wouldn't call it irrational. Did you just bought a big package or something?
No, I haven't just bought a big package - at 140k my package is large enough already! I have held this level since exercising the options last year, but my original shareholding goes back to 2003.
I follow the markets closely and I still call today's movement irrational, given all the positives out there. The daily NZO price movements in recent times tend to have been fairly closely aligned with the daily movements in the price of oil (PO). As I acknowledged, the PO did move down slightly on Friday but I would have thought that that negative effect would have been more than outweighed by the positive news re Pike - particularly given that the lack of reporting on remedial work to the ventilation shaft seemed to have troubled many PRC investors on this forum.
What I suspect has happened is that the closure of the Australian markets today has meant that there have been no benchmarks against which to make trend comparisons. I also note that the PPP sp dropped a little today too.
I am not at all worried, and have little doubt that the NZO price trend will keep heading in the right direction for some time yet. In my opinion the global investment cycle has passed its nadir and we are slowly beginning the ascent up the other side of the valley. (How's that for mixed metaphors!) I am convinced that fossil fuel demand will quicken its pace.

[COLIN]

As is today's "plunge", Colin! I reckon you must be standing too close to the chart! NZO is a fairly volatile stock and you need to give it plenty of room to breathe. In the course of its current (8 month) uptrend, NZO has dropped by as much as 16% at times with falls of up to 22 cents. You are going to have to harden up! A 3 cent drop on a day when the market is down overall is meaningless, just market noise.

Only in the short term, Colin. Look at the big picture and unlax. If you really do insist on worrying, at least wait for NZO to break below its current confirmed trendline. You could start getting ready to worry when the OBV stops rising.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO68.gif

Phaedrus - sorry, I posted my response to Bowman without seeing yours. I agree with you entirely and, as I have noted in my post, I am not at all worried. I was just making an observation.

[da puntzda]

Hi Colin

I sold some NZO today - around 60,000 shares - leaving me with 90,000. My thoughts were that this rally was getting a little ahead of itself and for me I wanted to to increase my cash %'s at this time. Personally I think the market is a little disconnected from the real economy at the moment and the green shoots are more like little seedlings in a dry desert rather than well established shrubs.

Although the POO has been uptrending so too has the NZD$ and arguably the PRC ventilation fix had been well priced in by the market already with PRC's recent rise from a low of 80 cents or so. Personally I prefer PRCOA as having more upside than NOG currently.

Having bought those shares at around $1.35 it was also a moment in time to lock in some profits - notwithstanding the sound of Phaedrus "never sell a rising share" echoing in my head.

I am still optimistic of NOG's future and may look to rebuy these again if the market retraces 10% or so- it is without doubt one of the best stocks on the NZX at the moment.

cheers

[COLIN]

Hi Colin

I sold some NZO today - around 60,000 shares - leaving me with 90,000. My thoughts were that this rally was getting a little ahead of itself and for me I wanted to to increase my cash %'s at this time. Personally I think the market is a little disconnected from the real economy at the moment and the green shoots are more like little seedlings in a dry desert rather than well established shrubs.

Although the POO has been uptrending so too has the NZD$ and arguably the PRC ventilation fix had been well priced in by the market already with PRC's recent rise from a low of 80 cents or so. Personally I prefer PRCOA as having more upside than NOG currently.

Having bought those shares at around $1.35 it was also a moment in time to lock in some profits - notwithstanding the sound of Phaedrus "never sell a rising share" echoing in my head.

I am still optimistic of NOG's future and may look to rebuy these again if the market retraces 10% or so- it is without doubt one of the best stocks on the NZX at the moment.

cheers
dp: Points noted, and I wish you well, but I have a distinct feeling that the chances of a retracement of around 10%, i.e. back to the low 140's, would be much less than 50:50 now.
I must say I wonder why one would be tempted to sell off a rising stock which they rate as "one of the best stocks on the NZX at the moment", given so many pointers to a rising tide in the global economy. In addition to the Phaedrus adage ("buy into strength, sell into weakness") there is another mantra that I should remind you of: "Cut your losses, but let profits run." And another question you should ask yourself is this: "If I sell these (rising) shares, where else can I invest my money to yield even higher rewards?" You certainly won't get much from holding cash! (I gather that you don't need the cash to meet a commitment.)
As you might gather, I do not subscribe to the "green shoots in a parched desert" scenario. The stock market always runs ahead of the real economy - the lead times can be as much as a year or more. I do not believe that the market has got ahead of itself - remember that a 50% decline requires a 100% recovery just to get back to where it was; there is a long way to go yet before that happens.
So, my honest advice to you is to buy back those "quality" NZO shares tomorrow - you may even get them for a cent or two less than you sold them for, as I see that the POO has slipped a tad further tonight, but to my mind it would be folly to wait for a 16 cents drop - you could be still waiting when the price tops $2.

[the machine]

The share price is behaving in a rather silly way today, with PRC having announced that all the ventilation issues have been dealt with, on time and within budget, and PRC sp goes up. Kupe commissioning is drawing ever closer, too, with no apparent glitches. I know that the oil price went down slightly on Friday but that is only a very small blip on a steadily rising trend.
But markets don't act irrationally, do they! Do they!! DO THEY!!!


asx closed today, so that will have an effect on nzx for most duel listed stocks including nzo

m

[digger]

Hi Colin

I sold some NZO today - around 60,000 shares - leaving me with 90,000. My thoughts were that this rally was getting a little ahead of itself and for me I wanted to to increase my cash %'s at this time. Personally I think the market is a little disconnected from the real economy at the moment and the green shoots are more like little seedlings in a dry desert rather than well established shrubs.

Although the POO has been uptrending so too has the NZD$ and arguably the PRC ventilation fix had been well priced in by the market already with PRC's recent rise from a low of 80 cents or so. Personally I prefer PRCOA as having more upside than NOG currently.

Having bought those shares at around $1.35 it was also a moment in time to lock in some profits - notwithstanding the sound of Phaedrus "never sell a rising share" echoing in my head.

I am still optimistic of NOG's future and may look to rebuy these again if the market retraces 10% or so- it is without doubt one of the best stocks on the NZX at the moment.

cheers

Those of us that have been in NZO for a decade or longer have a number of names to put to this arguement. About 4 or 5 years ago this point of view was owned by Cloudnine.Then the price had gone up to 30 cents approx and a month or two later with the latest duster drill stated he or she would buy back in at 25 cents.Well they fell to 26 and cloudnine stuck to his guns and would not buy back in.The rest is history.
Companies should be valued for fundamentals to generater cash flows and for its blue sky potential.Back in the days of Cloudnine NZO only had the blue sky now it is a dividend generator but still has exploration to excite that SP to a higher overnight level.Selling might be forced on an invester be meet urgent committments elsewhere but to exchange it for another stock on the market at this stage with the other two projects soooo close to being in revenue shows a need for any such seller to rexamine which way up is.

[digger]

Profits Diluted 4% by Record Stock Sales, Biggest Dividend Cuts Since 1938

This story is from Bloomberg and is to follow,that is not yet available. Putting it here to emphasise the increasing value of NZO. Just when the rest of the world is reducing dividends NZO is on the verge of paying the most in its history and will be a long term dividend payer. Still thinking about selling ???????????

[scamper]

digger, i notice that cloudnine is no longer a member.
died and gone to heaven, or something more fun?

[Lion]

Still thinking about selling.

Digger - I wonder if you meant to put a question mark there? It makes a huge difference to the meaning.

I hope you are not thinking about selling!

[digger]

Digger - I wonder if you meant to put a question mark there? It makes a huge difference to the meaning.

I hope you are not thinking about selling!

Doubt i will live long enought to see a good time to sell NZO. Three income streams just now a few months away so i will be flat out finding ways spend the dividends for the next 40 years which by then i will be 107. At 107 i will forgive myself for selling as it will be a clear sign of dementia.
Lion i will go back and put a few question marks to clear up any meaning.

From my old high school days consider the importance of a comma put into this sentence to give an exact opposite meaning,
You will go to war and return never in war you will perish. Here which side of never the comma is put gives an opposite meaning.

[COLIN]

From my old high school days consider the importance of a comma put into this sentence to give an exact opposite meaning,
You will go to war and return never in war you will perish. Here which side of never the comma is put gives an opposite meaning.

Digger - I'm glad to see that there are still others of my generation around who realise the importance of correctly placed punctuation marks. And your post reminds me that I must read the book "Eats Shoots and Leaves" which my daughter bought for me recently. You have also reminded me of something I heard many years ago: Two commas placed after the names of the relative gentlemen would make all the difference to the following sentence:

Mr Key said Mr Goff is a blithering idiot.

Getting back to NZO: Something that continues to puzzle me is the comparative lack of attention to this NZ success story by the local financial press. After all, how many cashed-up, debt-free, high-return, energy producers does NZ have in the NZX top 20?

[digger]

Digger -

Mr Key said Mr Goff is a blithering idiot.

Getting back to NZO: Something that continues to puzzle me is the comparative lack of attention to this NZ success story by the local financial press. After all, how many cashed-up, debt-free, high-return, energy producers does NZ have in the NZX top 20?

The first line i get it both blithering idots.
To get into the local finanical press. Try the sex approach. Rugby players and NZO supports have romp in hotel that sort of thing. Might be a bit Rich--- but for getting attention what would it be 'Worth'

[Xerof]

We get the drillbit going at Tui SE and NE according to AWE presentation just out

[Lion]

Whew, thanks digger, you had me nervous there for a second!

Oil prices mixed in the last day, WTI & Brent down a little, but Tapis up 2% today - I don't think this rise has finished yet.
Minas is up too. Does anyone know why Minas rose $11 in one day on 1st June, leaping over Tapis and staying above since? Must be a reason.

[shasta]

digger, i notice that cloudnine is no longer a member.
died and gone to heaven, or something more fun?

Um C9 has had a few "name changes" over the years...

Most recently as Underdog ;)

[Huang Chung]

Um C9 has had a few "name changes" over the years...

Most recently as Underdog ;)

I miss the old DOGman.....I wonder if he still looks in on the odd occasion?

Vince, everyone deserves a second (or third, or fourth) chance....:rolleyes:

[shasta]

I miss the old DOGman.....I wonder if he still looks in on the odd occasion?

Vince, everyone deserves a second (or third, or fourth) chance....:rolleyes:

I see we have a bouncerdog now, underdog/cujodog back?

[Huang Chung]

I see we have a bouncerdog now, underdog/cujodog back?

Maybe a far flung cousin...

I'm pretty sure underDOG was a Brissy boy, like me.

[fish]

Whew, thanks digger, you had me nervous there for a second!

Oil prices mixed in the last day, WTI & Brent down a little, but Tapis up 2% today - I don't think this rise has finished yet.
Minas is up too. Does anyone know why Minas rose $11 in one day on 1st June, leaping over Tapis and staying above since? Must be a reason.

This might help you understand-a cut and paste from -july 2008

Indonesia, a net exporter until two years ago and had this year decided to withdraw from OPEC, expects output to fall to 927,000 bpd in 2008, and keeps exporting less as it has to feed rising fuel demand seen at 1.2-1.3 million bpd.
Some sellers are already shying off Minas as a marker due to its wide price swings between months, as they seek to placate buyers seeking a more stable benchmark like the North Sea Brent basket, even though it is halfway around the world.
"Minas is very choppy. And of course refiners are unhappy with this high Minas price," said a trader with a refiner, who declined to be named on company policy.
Benchmark switches take time, but industry sources say a move to Dated Brent would not be seen as negatively as before.
"I don't think Asia-Pacific refiners have a fear of using Brent now the way they did five or 10 years ago, especially Korean, Japanese and Chinese refiners," said a consultant who requested anonymity.
But he said buyers are unlikely to ask specifically to shift from Minas pricing, especially for Indonesian crude trades.

Heavy sweet Minas is usually valued below bellwether light sweet Brent, which yields higher-quality products. But the lack of spot barrels means the Indonesian crude can be bid daily without facing offers, driving up its price.
For instance, trading firm Mercuria has bid for 100,000 barrels of Minas daily at up to $4 a barrel above Brent futures LCOc1 since early July, but has not met any offers so far.
Between 2004 and 2008, Minas Indonesia Crude Prices (ICP) were on average $1.40 below Brent. But the June Minas ICP -- the average of quotes by reporting agencies Platts and RIM -- rose to a record of $135.51, around $1.75 above Brent prices.
It was also $1.16 above the official price for light sweet, higher grade Tapis, the second time in three and a half years Minas was valued over the Malaysian crude, Reuters data show.

[the machine]

We get the drillbit going at Tui SE and NE according to AWE presentation just out

are nzo part of the bahamas drill, west of tui?

would be nice if nzo clarified what awe are saying

m

[notie]

are nzo part of the bahamas drill, west of tui?

would be nice if nzo clarified what awe are saying

m

yes they are and they are in for 18%. Remember it is AWE that makes all the running on these permits and NZO is just along for the ride, albeit a potential fruitful or bad outcome.

PEP 38401 with the Hoki prospect is the big upside drill for AWE this season. If that is sucessfully then their price will reflect that. It is a very large structure. NZO isn't in this block, although one of the other companies is looking to lay off a % so NZO might get involved.

The two wells at Tui don't have the potential to add too much in way of resource especially if they are considered on a risked basis, hence the drop in AWE's share value following the release of this report. Folk probably expected they would be drilling more wells there.

The other very interesting permit for AWE is Tuatara (38524) which they have 100%. maybe nzo might get involved in this. This permit was held by Austral Pacific but AWE got it from them cheap after they crashed. There is an offset well with good oil shows which makes the chances of a positive outcome better. rumour is NZO turned down a good deal on this block when it was being shopped around last year. Now will they get back in now?

[the machine]

yes they are and they are in for 18%. Remember it is AWE that makes all the running on these permits and NZO is just along for the ride, albeit a potential fruitful or bad outcome.

PEP 38401 with the Hoki prospect is the big upside drill for AWE this season. If that is sucessfully then their price will reflect that. It is a very large structure. NZO isn't in this block, although one of the other companies is looking to lay off a % so NZO might get involved.

The two wells at Tui don't have the potential to add too much in way of resource especially if they are considered on a risked basis, hence the drop in AWE's share value following the release of this report. Folk probably expected they would be drilling more wells there.

The other very interesting permit for AWE is Tuatara (38524) which they have 100%. maybe nzo might get involved in this. This permit was held by Austral Pacific but AWE got it from them cheap after they crashed. There is an offset well with good oil shows which makes the chances of a positive outcome better. rumour is NZO turned down a good deal on this block when it was being shopped around last year. Now will they get back in now?



thanks notie

nzo still to provide details

M

[Chris Roberts]

As previously publicly stated, there are numerous prospects within the Tui permit and the JV partners are still discussing which ones should be drilled by the Kan Tan IV later this year.
Within Permit PEP38483, AWE has identified the Bahamas prospect, but the JV partners have made no drilling commitment and this is also subject to further discussion.
Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.
When there are any decisions made, NZOG will announce them.

[OutToLunch]

Given the near-term outlook for the US and the US dollar, I hope NZO are paying close attention to where they are keeping their cash holdings. The US treasury situation looks increasingly volatile. As a shareholder I'd hate to see NZO's gains from Tui get eaten away by currency losses. Or am I getting paranoid? :confused:

[COLIN]

Given the near-term outlook for the US and the US dollar, I hope NZO are paying close attention to where they are keeping their cash holdings. The US treasury situation looks increasingly volatile. As a shareholder I'd hate to see NZO's gains from Tui get eaten away by currency losses. Or am I getting paranoid? :confused:
No OTL, you are not getting paranoid. This is an issue that has been exercising my mind too. The last Quarterly Activities Report (as at 31/3/09) said that "total cash on hand was NZ$208.7m. Around three-quarters of these funds were held in US denomination accounts with NZ-based banks." There is no mention of any hedging in place. Given the trillions of dollars of new debt that the US is issuing there are strong reasons why that currency will come under increasing downwards pressure, and many commentators make this point. Of course, the Kiwi dollar is also subject to similar pressures but, nevertheless, I do feel more than a little uneasy that so many eggs have been placed into this one US basket(case?). Hopefully the NZO Board is taking expert advice, and maybe the allocation/hedging policy has changed since March.

[fish]

As previously publicly stated, there are numerous prospects within the Tui permit and the JV partners are still discussing which ones should be drilled by the Kan Tan IV later this year.
Within Permit PEP38483, AWE has identified the Bahamas prospect, but the JV partners have made no drilling commitment and this is also subject to further discussion.
Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.
When there are any decisions made, NZOG will announce them.

Thanks for the clarification Chris .

Looks like Kupe is going to come on line at a very opportune time .
Chris -does nzo still have the provision to buy back 2.5% kupe from mitsui.
From a report about 5 yrs ago I found this-
NZOG said the purchase by Mitsui of a 4% Kupe interest would leave NZOG with an equity of 15% in the field. The sale contained a provision, subject to certain conditions, for a repurchase of 2.5%. NZOG, was Kupe operator at the time the field was discovered in 1986.

[shasta]

Given the near-term outlook for the US and the US dollar, I hope NZO are paying close attention to where they are keeping their cash holdings. The US treasury situation looks increasingly volatile. As a shareholder I'd hate to see NZO's gains from Tui get eaten away by currency losses. Or am I getting paranoid? :confused:

I hope it's not paranoia there OTL...:eek:

NZO have most of there direct opex costs in $US, incl all rig associated costs with the JV partners.

Whilst i agree NZO should be mitigating the downside risks by having the majority of there funds in $NZ, we don't really want NZO to start engaging in currency speculation.

I imagine the Kupe opex costs will also largely be in $US dollars, so it's a case of managing just how much cover you need?

NZO are in a very enviable position, other businesses having to take forward cover, swaps, puts etc are getting screwed by the points spread by the banks :(

Maybe this is a valid question for the AGM, i mean crystalling the gains could just about fund the divvie :confused:

[shasta]

I hope it's not paranoia there OTL...:eek:

NZO have most of there direct opex costs in $US, incl all rig associated costs with the JV partners.

Whilst i agree NZO should be mitigating the downside risks by having the majority of there funds in $NZ, we don't really want NZO to start engaging in currency speculation.

I imagine the Kupe opex costs will also largely be in $US dollars, so it's a case of managing just how much cover you need?

NZO are in a very enviable position, other businesses having to take forward cover, swaps, puts etc are getting screwed by the points spread by the banks :(

Maybe this is a valid question for the AGM, i mean crystalling the gains could just about fund the divvie :confused:

Just quickly calculating the actual gains over the last year...

From the Quarterly cashflow statements

30/06/08 - FX gain of $1.2m
30/09/08 - FX gain of $12.1m
31/12/08 - FX gain of $22.9m
31/03/09 - FX gain of $3.4m

Total gains = $39.6m/390m (shares on issue) equates to about 10cps!

Looking at a Findata NZD/USD chart, since 1 April the $NZ has dropped ~10% (from around 57c to 63.5c today)

As at 31/3/09 - NZO held just under $US90m cash

$US90m @ say 0.57c = ~$NZ157m, & @ 0.635 = ~$NZ141m

That would result in a FX loss of around $NZ16m, assuming the $US a/c hasn't moved. 16m/390m = ~4cps.

Will be interesting to read the June quarterly cashflow statement!

[the machine]

As previously publicly stated, there are numerous prospects within the Tui permit and the JV partners are still discussing which ones should be drilled by the Kan Tan IV later this year.
Within Permit PEP38483, AWE has identified the Bahamas prospect, but the JV partners have made no drilling commitment and this is also subject to further discussion.
Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.
When there are any decisions made, NZOG will announce them.

thanks chris.

regards

m

[the machine]

Thanks for the clarification Chris .

Looks like Kupe is going to come on line at a very opportune time .
Chris -does nzo still have the provision to buy back 2.5% kupe from mitsui.
From a report about 5 yrs ago I found this-
NZOG said the purchase by Mitsui of a 4% Kupe interest would leave NZOG with an equity of 15% in the field. The sale contained a provision, subject to certain conditions, for a repurchase of 2.5%. NZOG, was Kupe operator at the time the field was discovered in 1986.


fish, that question was asked a while back and clarified that option had well and truely passed

m

[digger]

fish, that question was asked a while back and clarified that option had well and truely passed

m

Yes that is how i understand it too.I believe it was some years ago when Kupe was renegoiated.

[notie]

As previously publicly stated, there are numerous prospects within the Tui permit and the JV partners are still discussing which ones should be drilled by the Kan Tan IV later this year.
Within Permit PEP38483, AWE has identified the Bahamas prospect, but the JV partners have made no drilling commitment and this is also subject to further discussion.
Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.
When there are any decisions made, NZOG will announce them.

I stand by my comments as being accurate.

In regards to PEP38483, AWE is the majority partner and nzo is a minor player in that permit, so it is pretty much what AWE recommends which happens.

[fish]

Hi Colin

I sold some NZO today - around 60,000 shares - leaving me with 90,000. My thoughts were that this rally was getting a little ahead of itself and for me I wanted to to increase my cash %'s at this time. Personally I think the market is a little disconnected from the real economy at the moment and the green shoots are more like little seedlings in a dry desert rather than well established shrubs.

Although the POO has been uptrending so too has the NZD$ and arguably the PRC ventilation fix had been well priced in by the market already with PRC's recent rise from a low of 80 cents or so. Personally I prefer PRCOA as having more upside than NOG currently.

Having bought those shares at around $1.35 it was also a moment in time to lock in some profits - notwithstanding the sound of Phaedrus "never sell a rising share" echoing in my head.

I am still optimistic of NOG's future and may look to rebuy these again if the market retraces 10% or so- it is without doubt one of the best stocks on the NZX at the moment.

cheers

A problem with selling and buying like this -is the IRD might regard you as a trader-apparently they are targeting those that trade shares.If you dont declare it you may be charged penalty tax .
I wondered last tax year-ending 31/3/09 whether to declare myself as a trader but decided it wasnt really true as I invest for the dividend and intend to hold most long-term -10 years or more for retirement . Hence didnt even though I made losses overall .
Have decided not to trade at all from today as an IRD investigation into trading is not what I need at the moment

[fish]

The Tapis price is now at $US72.30/bbl & is now trading above the 3 year average Tapis price ($US72.09) ;)

With the USD/NZD @ 0.6262, we are now getting ~$NZ115/bbl

With PRC now fully funded into production, KUPE debt repaid, & oil prices consistently over $NZ100/bbl, there probably is some scope to pay a dividend & utilise some tax credits, now we are into a new tax year.

With approx 385m shares on issues:

385m x 0.05cps = $19m (a similiar figure to what PPP paid out :rolleyes:)

I guess incorporating every's opinions on paying out dividends, NZO can easily sustain paying 5cps as an interim & final dividend, or 10cps total.

If that were to happen, i'd be happy with a DRP scheme at say a 2.5% discount.

10c/160c = yield of 6.25% tax paid, pretty good for an O&G company!

I'll be "averaging up" again this week

nzo remains far too cheap with Tapis now at $75 us or approx $118 nz

Week ended Average Tapis Price $NZ Equivalent
05/06/09 US$68.71 NZ$109.76
29/05/09 US$62.15 NZ$97.09

[The BOWMAN]

A problem with selling and buying like this -is the IRD might regard you as a trader-apparently they are targeting those that trade shares.If you dont declare it you may be charged penalty tax .
I wondered last tax year-ending 31/3/09 whether to declare myself as a trader but decided it wasnt really true as I invest for the dividend and intend to hold most long-term -10 years or more for retirement . Hence didnt even though I made losses overall .
Have decided not to trade at all from today as an IRD investigation into trading is not what I need at the moment

Hi, Fish. I am curious about that. Honestly, not many people would invest in shares purely for the sake of dividends. Have you or anyone you know went through such investigation? How do IRD expect us to justify that we weren't investing for the capital gain?

[LJB]

Maybe the IRD 'Spooks' might keep a sneaky eye on Sharetrader to make a start on their new mission.....;)

[fish]

Hi, Fish. I am curious about that. Honestly, not many people would invest in shares purely for the sake of dividends. Have you or anyone you know went through such investigation? How do IRD expect us to justify that we weren't investing for the capital gain?
Online traders and high net worth individuals are among those who are likely to face more scrutiny from Inland Revenue in the coming year.

The IRD has for the first time published a list of the tax compliance areas in which it wants to concentrate.

IRD commissioner Bob Russell says the department has released the list in a bid to improve compliance.

"Tax administrations around the world are trying to be increasingly transparent about the things that are of concern to them. Most people will try and get it right and it we can be clear about the things that are of concern to us, I think that there's more chance they will be compliant," he says.

One area of focus will be online trading, or e-commerce, which has seen an increase of volumes over the years.

The IRD says if sales made online are not part of a business activity then there are usually no tax implications, but people who regularly sell online may in fact be classed as a business and should be declaring sales for income tax purposes.

"We've actually contacted a large number of online traders. I think some of them genuinely didn't realise that they needed to pay income tax and GST and they've been doing so more recently, so we think there's room to continue that," says Russell.

Advertisement

[zorba]

Nymex light crude pushes past US$72 / barrel -- great upward trend:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_N9

.

And check this out -- no new OPEC oil untill US$100 / barrel:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=a1X.wUMmrho0

[Wilkins_Micawber]

A problem with selling and buying like this -is the IRD might regard you as a trader-apparently they are targeting those that trade shares.

I think IRD are "targeting" on-line trading, which i take to mean the likes of trade-me, etc. This is not the same as share trading on-line as I doubt that it matters "how" one buys or sell their shares ("on-line" or via a broker) in determining whether or not one is a share trader.

[Jay]

I read into it that the IRD meant people on Trade me buying and selling etc and not share traders per se.

Good to see an increase for the sake of this share again


Beat me to it WB

[fish]

Hi, Fish. I am curious about that. Honestly, not many people would invest in shares purely for the sake of dividends. Have you or anyone you know went through such investigation? How do IRD expect us to justify that we weren't investing for the capital gain?

I understand they use a number of criteria-which include frequency of trading .
After reading about it today I decided I didnt want to inadvertently get taxed on all the nzo gains I will be making since I bought a large amount of rights about a year ago .
Hence I will not be buying or selling anymore this year .

I am not sure of the ird intentions-from todays news it doesnt sound good .

In my business I do get lots of riduculous claims from the ird-for instance today they wanted me to pay gst plus penalty tax for a gst payment I had already paid but they couldnt find-required bank statements and signed statements from me before they would believe it ,
Seems you are guilty until you can prove innocence .

[fish]

I think IRD are "targeting" on-line trading, which i take to mean the likes of trade-me, etc. This is not the same as share trading on-line as I doubt that it matters "how" one buys or sell their shares ("on-line" or via a broker) in determining whether or not one is a share trader.


Thats a relief-thanks !

But I guess a high net worth individual who buys and sells shares with the intention of making a profit could be investigated and deemed a trader

[friedegg]

Thats a relief-thanks !

But I guess a high net worth individual who buys and sells shares with the intention of making a profit could be investigated and deemed a trader
they used to let you buy/sell 7 cars a year until you needed to be a registered mvdi dealer(although i never remember anyone procecuted over this)and until ird come up with some strict guidelines ill take this approach

[manxman]

Hi, Fish. I am curious about that. Honestly, not many people would invest in shares purely for the sake of dividends. Have you or anyone you know went through such investigation? How do IRD expect us to justify that we weren't investing for the capital gain?

I am not a lawyer but......... You are allowed to invest for capital gain. Its good for the country FFS. What IRD are on about is people who convert all their taxable income into non taxable capital gains.

Example....... In 2003 I invested in NZR. NZR spent all their retained (tax paid) profits and then some on the "Future Fuels" project. They scored a major hit because they commissioned the new plant right into a regional shortage of clean diesel. They made a bomb and the share price appreciated.

Question...... How much of the appreciation of the share price was due to the reinvestment of tax-paid profits, which is in no way "capital gain" and how much was due to the foresight of the management, the vagaries of the market and a major refinery in Australia dropping the ball on a similar project thus causing the regional diesel shortage.

I don't think that the IRD really wants to go there.

If you buy shares, you are allowed to have an exit strategy. For instance I would not normally buy a share where the PE was greater than 10 because of my financing costs. I would have my finger on the sell button if the PE(based on my idea of the next year's earnings) got too exited. Stagging new issues and other short term strategies are clearly taxable but even there the IRD has not announced enforcement on a triumphal scale. It might really help genuine investors if they did, but the market seems to need stags to get new issues away. Is this a legitimate need? Conventional economists would hold that stags are expected, and therefore are stabilizing influences on the market, and help capital raising.

If you buy anything with the intention of selling it at a profit, then that is taxable. Buying shares with the intention of holding them should not in our present regime, give rise to a tax liability. If you then see the shares going pear shaped, you can get out without tax obligations. There is no lemming law which compells you hold them over the cliff.

On the other hand, has anyone thought of deducting their capital losses? A good way to really attract attention.

[digger]

I understand they use a number of criteria-which include frequency of trading .
After reading about it today I decided I didnt want to inadvertently get taxed on all the nzo gains I will be making since I bought a large amount of rights about a year ago .
Hence I will not be buying or selling anymore this year .

I am not sure of the ird intentions-from todays news it doesnt sound good .

In my business I do get lots of riduculous claims from the ird-for instance today they wanted me to pay gst plus penalty tax for a gst payment I had already paid but they couldnt find-required bank statements and signed statements from me before they would believe it ,
Seems you are guilty until you can prove innocence .

Fish ,starting in 1984 i was a trader but after 11 years gradually moved over to buy and hold. I discovered i was not smart enough to beat the market and good growth stocks that you hold for eventual dividends was the way to go.Note that while i discovered i was not smart enough to beat the market,i was smart enought to discover that.Many poster have yet to come to grips with that fact
Since 1962 all my yearly accounts are done through an accountant so records are always available. Your comments re a GST non payment that was paid says you did not have an accountant to supply this info. Over the years i have run into similiar problems but the accountant always sorts it out.Since 1997 virtually never sell shares and will live very well on future dividends,all which will show on the books.
The entire tax system needs looking at and has for many years.The non taxing of capital gains on land or building held for less than three [or 5 ] years is a killer to the working weekly tax payer.The taxing of young cattle reared on a farm and not yet sold is another killer compared to a quick turn over of property where all profits are pocketed.In Aus oil and gas has to have a tax provision if the reserve is increased,as i understand it so you can be sure the reserve is not increased until necessary.Another stupid tax law. The system is outdated and needs to be seen to be more fair on all types of income. AMEN

[COLIN]

I am surprised that anyone is worried about being suddenly classed as a share trader by the IRD in respect of the year ended 31/3/09! Would you not welcome the opportunity to offset the year's losses against other taxable income? Maybe there are some rare individuals out there who actually made capital gains in their portfolio but they would be very rare indeed. I certainly didn't. But, of course, if you tell the IRD you want them to commence classing you as a share trader for the year just past, you will then be faced with an ongoing interest in your trading activities for the future - they could prove hard to get out of your hair.
Just a point by the way, that some may not be fully aware of: Any gains on sales/maturity of bonds, etc., (as opposed to equities) are taxable in the year of disposal/maturity, irrespective of whether they were bought with the intention of making a profit or not. They are classed as "financial arrangements".
Taxation discussions, of course, should take place in the appropriate forum.

[boysy]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has been advised by the Operator of the Kupe project,
Origin Energy, of an update to the project schedule.

Origin Energy has advised that the first raw gas from the Kupe field, which lies off the
coast of south Taranaki, will be brought ashore in the fourth quarter of calendar year
2009. This will effectively signal the commencement of production.

Origin’s Executive General Manager, Major Development Projects, Andrew Stock said
“Construction of the offshore facilities wells, wellhead platform, pipeline and controls
umbilical is complete, and the overall project including the Production Station near
Hawera is nearing completion, with testing and pre-commissioning occurring later than
planned.

“Capital costs for the Kupe project remain in line with previous expectations.”

Some of the facilities are already active as part of the current pre-commissioning and
the balance of facilities will be progressively readied and commissioned over the coming
months.

NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury said “We had previously presumed three calendar
quarters of Kupe production in the 2009/10 financial year. Although production rates
during commissioning are difficult to predict, it is now likely that production during
the December Quarter will be reduced.”

Production forecasts for later years are not affected. Over the next 15 to 20 years Kupe
will make a significant contribution towards meeting New Zealand’s gas supply needs,
providing an estimated 254 petajoules of natural gas, as well as 1.1 million tonnes of
LPG and 14.7 million barrels of condensate.

It is expected that Kupe will meet approximately 15 per cent of New Zealand’s current
annual gas demand and 50 per cent of New Zealand’s LPG demand.

ENDS
Participants in the Kupe Project are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited) 50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries) 31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries) 15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd 4%

[digger]

Teething troubles. Thank god for the delays so far,it would have been a bast--ard if Kupe had been up and running from last july just in time for the big fall in value. So the small delay has some advantage.

[Xerof]

Does anyone know if the long term supply agreements in place with Genesis and Vector are at a fixed price? If not, how is price determined?

Clearly condensate will be sold on the spot market

[blockhead]

An interesting ann, suggests there has been some delay but doesn't explain what or why, just we were "presuming" production for 3 quarters (09 - 10 year) but now production in the Dec quarter is "likely" to be reduced.

Leaves me pondering as to what actually is happening

[neopoleII]

i met a leading engineer working on the site a few months back on a buisness matter and he offered my friend a job on the spot....... they have/had massive skilled labour shortages.
my friend turned it down for family reasons.

[fish]

Fish ,starting in 1984 i was a trader but after 11 years gradually moved over to buy and hold. I discovered i was not smart enough to beat the market and good growth stocks that you hold for eventual dividends was the way to go.Note that while i discovered i was not smart enough to beat the market,i was smart enought to discover that.Many poster have yet to come to grips with that fact
Since 1962 all my yearly accounts are done through an accountant so records are always available. Your comments re a GST non payment that was paid says you did not have an accountant to supply this info. Over the years i have run into similiar problems but the accountant always sorts it out.Since 1997 virtually never sell shares and will live very well on future dividends,all which will show on the books.
The entire tax system needs looking at and has for many years.The non taxing of capital gains on land or building held for less than three [or 5 ] years is a killer to the working weekly tax payer.The taxing of young cattle reared on a farm and not yet sold is another killer compared to a quick turn over of property where all profits are pocketed.In Aus oil and gas has to have a tax provision if the reserve is increased,as i understand it so you can be sure the reserve is not increased until necessary.Another stupid tax law. The system is outdated and needs to be seen to be more fair on all types of income. AMEN

Wise words digger . Our manager submits gst returns and problems do occur but get sorted pretty quickly-it just seemed stupid that the ird wouldnt believe the manager and couldnt trace the payment .
You should be living well your ppp dividend plus nzo 10cents last year and ? what this year
cheers

[fish]

I am surprised that anyone is worried about being suddenly classed as a share trader by the IRD in respect of the year ended 31/3/09! Would you not welcome the opportunity to offset the year's losses against other taxable income? Maybe there are some rare individuals out there who actually made capital gains in their portfolio but they would be very rare indeed. I certainly didn't. But, of course, if you tell the IRD you want them to commence classing you as a share trader for the year just past, you will then be faced with an ongoing interest in your trading activities for the future - they could prove hard to get out of your hair.
Just a point by the way, that some may not be fully aware of: Any gains on sales/maturity of bonds, etc., (as opposed to equities) are taxable in the year of disposal/maturity, irrespective of whether they were bought with the intention of making a profit or not. They are classed as "financial arrangements".
Taxation discussions, of course, should take place in the appropriate forum.

Its not last year I am worried so much about . If I was taxed on the likely capital gain on nzo this coming financial year I would be very worried .
Hence I am not going to trade again this year and hope for a good dividend

price oil is rising faster than any analyst predicted -abn ambro craig might have to revise their valuation of nzo above the $1.95 recently made plus 12 cents dividend (well i would be very happy with that !)

[boysy]

Pike River Coal shareholders are being asked to give the green light to New Zealand Oil & Gas increasing its stake to a top of 35 per cent by exercising share options.

The options were part of the recent rights issue that raised $41 million for the West Coast coal mining company.

NZOG, a small oil and gas explorer, was an underwriter of the rights issue. It was part of the underwriting deal that Pike seeks the approval of shareholders for NZOG to exercise 2011 share options which would increase its stake in Pike.

NZOG, an original owner of Pike River, now holds 29.59 per cent of the company, which is developing an underground coalmine 46 kilometres north-east of Greymouth in the Paparoa Range. Under the Takeovers Code, a company may not raise its holding above 20 per cent without making a takeover offer to shareholders unless shareholders approve the increase without a takeover bid.

A meeting of shareholders to vote on the issue is being held in Wellington in two weeks.

[neopoleII]

now that would be money well spent

[friedegg]

Pike River Coal shareholders are being asked to give the green light to New Zealand Oil & Gas increasing its stake to a top of 35 per cent by exercising share options.

The options were part of the recent rights issue that raised $41 million for the West Coast coal mining company.

NZOG, a small oil and gas explorer, was an underwriter of the rights issue. It was part of the underwriting deal that Pike seeks the approval of shareholders for NZOG to exercise 2011 share options which would increase its stake in Pike.

NZOG, an original owner of Pike River, now holds 29.59 per cent of the company, which is developing an underground coalmine 46 kilometres north-east of Greymouth in the Paparoa Range. Under the Takeovers Code, a company may not raise its holding above 20 per cent without making a takeover offer to shareholders unless shareholders approve the increase without a takeover bid.

A meeting of shareholders to vote on the issue is being held in Wellington in two weeks.

i suppose in world text nzo is "a small oil and gas explorer"so i hope in this reporters next story on someone like fpa they use the phrase "minute applaince manufacturer"!!in nz terms nzo is up there but continue with no real positive mainstream press unless its bad

[shasta]

i suppose in world text nzo is "a small oil and gas explorer"so i hope in this reporters next story on someone like fpa they use the phrase "minute applaince manufacturer"!!in nz terms nzo is up there but continue with no real positive mainstream press unless its bad

Interesting that in little ol NZ, a $500m market cap is considered small?

Some journalist should really be looking for a new career...:o

[COLIN]

price oil is rising faster than any analyst predicted -abn ambro craig might have to revise their valuation of nzo above the $1.95 recently made plus 12 cents dividend (well i would be very happy with that !)

The market sure is an ass. Its quite ludicrous that the closing NZO share price tonight is no higher than it was at the end of last month, and yet the price of crude continues its inexorable rise (there is a slight contraction tonight but it is a mere blip). The weaker US dollar does not appear to account for the full extent of this divergence, and the Australian oil producers seem to have generally moved up meanwhile, more in line with the strengthening of their dollar, although Woodside doesn't seem to be making the headway I would have expected.
Surely NZO investors are not being spooked by the negligible delay in Kupe coming onstream - the delay is insignificant in relation to the expected life of the field.

[shasta]

The market sure is an ass. Its quite ludicrous that the closing NZO share price tonight is no higher than it was at the end of last month, and yet the price of crude continues its inexorable rise (there is a slight contraction tonight but it is a mere blip). The weaker US dollar does not appear to account for the full extent of this divergence, and the Australian oil producers seem to have generally moved up meanwhile, more in line with the strengthening of their dollar, although Woodside doesn't seem to be making the headway I would have expected.
Surely NZO investors are not being spooked by the negligible delay in Kupe coming onstream - the delay is insignificant in relation to the expected life of the field.

Well that is the irrational market force at work, it reacts to certainties, & a delay in KUPE whilst disappointing, is par for the course in the O&G game.

As NZO trades mostly on the NZX (with smaller volume on the ASX), the lack of any real energy analysts in the NZ market highlights the fact that negative news will be reacted too, & the positives get largely ignored.

I'm sure the PR team at NZO are doing a bang up job getting them in the news, investor presentations, interviews etc...

We have the Tui tie in drills to look forward to, & even PRC is showing some strength...

We gotta remember just how far we have come, 2 years ago NOG had 3 projects all in development stage & by the end of the year we will have all 3 projects up & running!

[Taijon]

From NZO Public Affairs Manager, Chris Roberts:

[Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.
When there are any decisions made, NZOG will announce them.[/QUOTE]

From Shasta:

[I'm sure the PR team at NZO are doing a bang up job getting them in the news, investor presentations, interviews etc...[/QUOTE]

Shasta surely you are being sarcastic!!!!! How many peeps have you seen or heard out of the Public Affairs Manager, Mr Roberts in the past year? Publicity coming directly out of NZO is just about zero. Anything coming out is a minor rehash of some other company's announcement (usually AWE, which is perfectly understandable in some circumstances but not in others).

Notie is right - both NZO and PPP are on the coat tails of AWE and to suggest otherwise (as Mr Roberts has) is nothing but grandstanding in his own self importance. AWE went to Vietnam and then PPP followed. So far NZO, other than taking a stake in PPP and the obscure deal in Romania, hasn't done anything (which may not necessarily be bad if in fact NZO has a strategy). I doubt AWE would have put out a public release on future drilling plans if it hadn't already been agreed by the parties, if in fact the latter have much say at all.

Has Mr Roberts publicised either the PPP or Romanian deals? Shareholders have had to rely pretty much on what other posters on this forum have found out, particularly in regard to the Romanian deal to get a handle on what is going on.

At the next AGM, which I can't attend unfortunately, I hope someone asks exactly what the budget is for the Public Affairs Manager + team (including salaries), what they have done for shareholders over the past 12 months, and what they have planned for the next 12 months. I can't help thinking being the Public Affairs Manager for NZO must be one of the cushiest jobs around. I hope I'm proved wrong and Mr Roberts and his team have in fact been as busy as bees gathering nectar in a desert.

Notie, don't be brushed off - I liked your response. Keep it up for the benefit of other shareholders. Thanks for the postings from many others on this forum too.

[shasta]

From NZO Public Affairs Manager, Chris Roberts:

[Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.
When there are any decisions made, NZOG will announce them.

From Shasta:

[I'm sure the PR team at NZO are doing a bang up job getting them in the news, investor presentations, interviews etc...[/quote]

Shasta surely you are being sarcastic!!!!! How many peeps have you seen or heard out of the Public Affairs Manager, Mr Roberts in the past year? Publicity coming directly out of NZO is just about zero. Anything coming out is a minor rehash of some other company's announcement (usually AWE, which is perfectly understandable in some circumstances but not in others).

Notie is right - both NZO and PPP are on the coat tails of AWE and to suggest otherwise (as Mr Roberts has) is nothing but grandstanding in his own self importance. AWE went to Vietnam and then PPP followed. So far NZO, other than taking a stake in PPP and the obscure deal in Romania, hasn't done anything (which may not necessarily be bad if in fact NZO has a strategy). I doubt AWE would have put out a public release on future drilling plans if it hadn't already been agreed by the parties, if in fact the latter have much say at all.

Has Mr Roberts publicised either the PPP or Romanian deals? Shareholders have had to rely pretty much on what other posters on this forum have found out, particularly in regard to the Romanian deal to get a handle on what is going on.

At the next AGM, which I can't attend unfortunately, I hope someone asks exactly what the budget is for the Public Affairs Manager + team (including salaries), what they have done for shareholders over the past 12 months, and what they have planned for the next 12 months. I can't help thinking being the Public Affairs Manager for NZO must be one of the cushiest jobs around. I hope I'm proved wrong and Mr Roberts and his team have in fact been as busy as bees gathering nectar in a desert.

Notie, don't be brushed off - I liked your response. Keep it up for the benefit of other shareholders. Thanks for the postings from many others on this forum too.[/quote]

I wasn't being sarcastic, NZO is a much different beast than what it was a few years ago, even the website highlights the improvement.

You're being a tad harsh in pointing out Chris Roberts, the fact he takes his time to post here is admirable, & i hope he continues to do so.

I wouldn't want NZO announcing every minor little detail to be "seen as busy", NZO are quietly going about business & i'm sure are looking at all opportunities to increase shareholder wealth.

As NZO is a JV partner & NOT the operator, it's common practice that the operator leads the way with news, & the others follow suit, i'm not sure what it is you want from NZO?

What's the rush, we aren't in the middle of an active drilling program, so news is a little light, doesn't mean they aren't busy pursuing opportunities.

Tui is ticking along nicely, we have the follow up drilling soon, Pike is now funded into production, & Kupe is being developed & getting ready for commissioning & production, if that's not enough for you, then there are plenty of high risk offshore wildcat explorers to buy into...

BTW - We shareholders appoint the directors who in turn employ a CEO.

The CEO dictates the people he has around him, & what there remuneration is, that's NOT an issue that should be concerning you!

If NZO didn't have a PR Manager, we'd all be saying they need to do something to raise awareness, ie get a PR person!

[digger]

Those with some history in NZO will remember NZO was the operator of Ngataro.Ngataro was NZO only other producing field.Together with Astro Pacific[now gone belly up] and the crown Ngataro worked very successfully for a number of years until the crown sold out to Graymouth Petroleum. Now other can correct me if my memory is not perfect as the third party may have been someone other than the crown.
My point is that Graymouth Pretroluem was a junior partner that immediately went about acting as if they were in charge by releasing media reports and installing a gas collecting system to stop the flaring off of gas from the field. Naturally this went down well with the greenies and got Graymouth a lot of favourable press.
Graymouth pertroleum broke ever industry established rule wherby a structure is set up between operator and the other joint partners in any field. This was so much so that to this day i have not heard of any other oiler that has since partnered with them.And we know of a company that will not partner ever again in the future.
I am saying all this as i certainly would not want or expect NZO to make releases in advance of the opreator or in contardiction of the operator.We have a future where we want to farm in and be farmed into so going down the aGRAYMONTH TRACK IS NO OPTION.

[notie]

From Shasta:




What's the rush, we aren't in the middle of an active drilling program, so news is a little light, doesn't mean they aren't busy pursuing opportunities.

Tui is ticking along nicely, we have the follow up drilling soon, Pike is now funded into production, & Kupe is being developed & getting ready for commissioning & production, if that's not enough for you, then there are plenty of high risk offshore wildcat explorers to buy into...

BTW - We shareholders appoint the directors who in turn employ a CEO.

The CEO dictates the people he has around him, & what there remuneration is, that's NOT an issue that should be concerning you!

If NZO didn't have a PR Manager, we'd all be saying they need to do something to raise awareness, ie get a PR person!



It looks as if AWE has decided where they want to drill some new wells on Tui and they have broadcast this in their lastest presentation Javascript:openPopUpFull('http://www.awexp.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1324&PageName=AWE\\\'s%20Updated%20Investor%20Presentat ion','AWE\'s%20Updated%20Investor%20Presentation') It details what the JV is planning. Why isn't NZOG doing a news release on this? AWE wouldn't be putting out this sort of news if they didn't have some jv agreement.

NZOG need to pick up the game on telling its shareholders its plans. However, it is awe that is doing all the work and driving the Tui JV, not NZOG which appears to be along for the ride.

I want to know what happened to all the opportunities that NZOG were looking at. So far all they have got involved in is a study group in Romania, although details are pretty thin on the ground so far. Given the amount of companies on the ASX that are raising more money, then there should have been something good to get involved in.

[fish]

NZOG need to pick up the game on telling its shareholders its plans. However, it is awe that is doing all the work and driving the Tui JV, not NZOG which appears to be along for the ride.

I want to know what happened to all the opportunities that NZOG were looking at. So far all they have got involved in is a study group in Romania, although details are pretty thin on the ground so far. Given the amount of companies on the ASX that are raising more money, then there should have been something good to get involved in.[/QUOTE]

As you say Awe has updated its investor presentation giving details of its drilling programme . It come as no surprise that it includes Tui NE and SW as these will be easy to tie into existing Tui Facilities.

Timing looks as if it will be very fortuitous again .As I write Tapis is 74.5 and this equals NZ $117 .We could easily be looking at $150 plus when Kupe starts producing plus the smaller pools around Tui would be more commercial .
Patience is a virtue that should be well rewarded when Kupe starts producing and I suspect ways will be found to turn the Tui tap full on when the price of oil merits it .

[digger]

yes they are and they are in for 18%. Remember it is AWE that makes all the running on these permits and NZO is just along for the ride, albeit a potential fruitful or bad outcome.

PEP 38401 with the Hoki prospect is the big upside drill for AWE this season. If that is sucessfully then their price will reflect that. It is a very large structure. NZO isn't in this block, although one of the other companies is looking to lay off a % so NZO might get involved.

The two wells at Tui don't have the potential to add too much in way of resource especially if they are considered on a risked basis, hence the drop in AWE's share value following the release of this report. Folk probably expected they would be drilling more wells there.

The other very interesting permit for AWE is Tuatara (38524) which they have 100%. maybe nzo might get involved in this. This permit was held by Austral Pacific but AWE got it from them cheap after they crashed. There is an offset well with good oil shows which makes the chances of a positive outcome better. rumour is NZO turned down a good deal on this block when it was being shopped around last year. Now will they get back in now?

Notie it is clear why Chris Roberts found this post inaccurate and unhelpful. You and i and every other poster can speculate until the cows come home about what NZO might or might not do but NZO can only deal in established facts.You put forward with great confidence that NZO was foolish not to get into 38401 and 38525,but were you in the board room when these were compared to many other drill or farmin that were on the table.
Several years ago under one of your other alias [Sniper or whatever] AWE was doing another drill that NZO was suppost to have been very foolish not to get into. Nothing more was every heard when that well turned out dry.
Am only posting this now as it is becoming clear that Notie and Taijon seem to be on some sort of blood trail that is not only inaccurate and unhelpful but has an underlieing jealousy at NZO success both now and in the future.

[shasta]

Notie it is clear why Chris Roberts found this post inaccurate and unhelpful. You and i and every other poster can speculate until the cows come home about what NZO might or might not do but NZO can only deal in established facts.You put forward with great confidence that NZO was foolish not to get into 38401 and 38525,but were you in the board room when these were compared to many other drill or farmin that were on the table.
Several years ago under one of your other alias [Sniper or whatever] AWE was doing another drill that NZO was suppost to have been very foolish not to get into. Nothing more was every heard when that well turned out dry.
Am only posting this now as it is becoming clear that Notie and Taijon seem to be on some sort of blood trail that is not only inaccurate and unhelpful but has an underlieing jealousy at NZO success both now and in the future.

Why don't they sell out of NZO & go buy AWE?

Would save grizzling about it :D

[digger]

Has Mr Roberts publicised either the PPP or Romanian deals? Shareholders have had to rely pretty much on what other posters on this forum have found out, particularly in regard to the Romanian deal to get a handle on what is going on.

At the next AGM, which I can't attend unfortunately, I hope someone asks exactly what the budget is for the Public Affairs Manager + team (including salaries), what they have done for shareholders over the past 12 months, and what they have planned for the next 12 months. I can't help thinking being the Public Affairs Manager for NZO must be one of the cushiest jobs around. I hope I'm proved wrong and Mr Roberts and his team have in fact been as busy as bees gathering nectar in a desert.

Taijon in your eagerness to criticise Chris Roberts you screwd up the facts.Firstly Mr Roberts is not part of PPP and therefor would not be publicising any facts regarding that AUS based company.The Romanian deal is in the quarterly.Yes i two would like more info on this one but it is a very conditional arrangment that is not yet completed.
You say you will not be at the AGM.Firstly you have to have shares in the company to attend.Do you have any?? Secondly NZOG has had a number of alias over the years that misinform and speculate and never face up at the AGM.
I do not think NZOG or Chris Roberts need any defence for me but i will nevertheless for other poster set out some facts. When Mr Roberts joined NZO had only one analysts now there are nine. That must have been a lot of behind the scene work.The website is also regualy updated and improved. Backing up this point go onto directbroking graphs and compare supergraph where NZO is against NZX50. From that i have to say about Chris Roberts cushy job that thank god he is on a salary and not proformance based.
There is another underlieing point you are twisting. NZO does not get into the media and on TV much when it on preformance clearly should. This has nothing to do with anyone in the company but newzealanders and the way they think. We are just not resource based thinkers so the media ignores us.Even a few years ago when NZO was the year top preformer it was listed then the reporter when on to talk about the warehouse.
I would hope that you and Notie can be more balanced in your comments in the future.Now in using the word BALANCED have i triped over one of your other alias

[corporateraider]

Quote: Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.

Notie, it seems that you might need some help on this one.

I read your original piece where you referred to an industry rumour.

The ill fashioned response of a person who supposedly uses words for a living is surprising. (Maybe the poster that suggested that Mr Roberts simply rearranges the utterances of AWE was correct, because this strange collection of words does no credit to anyone.)

First Notie's rumour has become rumours.

Second, we can only assume that Mr Roberts was trying to say that the rumour(s) was (were) inaccurate. How could My Roberts possibly tell whether the references to the rumours was accurate or not, because he could not possibly know the rumour that was in the mind of Notie at the time.

And lastly how can a rumour be unhelpful? Something is only damaging if the person hearing it attaches some validity to it. For example, if I were to say that Richard Worth was sacked because the PM fancied his chances with the woman concerned, this only become damaging if the listener attaches some credibility to the statement. They are likely to do this if they attach some credibility to the source, and/ or to the nature of the statement. Furthermore the statement will only become unhelpful if it is viewed as such by someone who seeks to rely on it. We can assume that they would apply a far more vigorous examination of its validity.

This site is a mixture of rumour, opinion and fact. I suggest that this site, judging by the huge number of hits, has done a huge amount to raise the profile of NZOG.

I welcome the contribution of Notie and hope that he and others continue to post what they think is of value. It is up to the reader to judge the merit of their posts. Some will obviously apply a greater degree of intelligence in doing that than others.

[Mingeathinaikos]

NZOG need to pick up the game on telling its shareholders its plans. However, it is awe that is doing all the work and driving the Tui JV, not NZOG which appears to be along for the ride.

I want to know what happened to all the opportunities that NZOG were looking at. So far all they have got involved in is a study group in Romania, although details are pretty thin on the ground so far. Given the amount of companies on the ASX that are raising more money, then there should have been something good to get involved in.



Not too much PR fish...Sinopec is on the warpath at the mo, and we don't want them to notice us down here. Could see some buying pressure over this week i reckon. :)

[Nitaa]

Quote: Noties references to industry rumours are inaccurate and unhelpful.

Notie, it seems that you might need some help on this one.

I read your original piece where you referred to an industry rumour.

The ill fashioned response of a person who supposedly uses words for a living is surprising. (Maybe the poster that suggested that Mr Roberts simply rearranges the utterances of AWE was correct, because this strange collection of words does no credit to anyone.)

First Notie's rumour has become rumours.

Second, we can only assume that Mr Roberts was trying to say that the rumour(s) was (were) inaccurate. How could My Roberts possibly tell whether the references to the rumours was accurate or not, because he could not possibly know the rumour that was in the mind of Notie at the time.

And lastly how can a rumour be unhelpful? Something is only damaging if the person hearing it attaches some validity to it. For example, if I were to say that Richard Worth was sacked because the PM fancied his chances with the woman concerned, this only become damaging if the listener attaches some credibility to the statement. They are likely to do this if they attach some credibility to the source, and/ or to the nature of the statement. Furthermore the statement will only become unhelpful if it is viewed as such by someone who seeks to rely on it. We can assume that they would apply a far more vigorous examination of its validity.

This site is a mixture of rumour, opinion and fact. I suggest that this site, judging by the huge number of hits, has done a huge amount to raise the profile of NZOG.

I welcome the contribution of Notie and hope that he and others continue to post what they think is of value. It is up to the reader to judge the merit of their posts. Some will obviously apply a greater degree of intelligence in doing that than others.

Rumours can be dangerous as it may unfairly influence a posters view and in a worse case scenario sabotage a company's credibility etc. So i think if people are going to speculate or hear rumours then it would be professional to explain their reasoning.

I therefore am cautious when i see posters that condone rumours. Most of us generally know the difference but often we are all guilty of being sucked in by someone else saying something when there is no merit to it.

ps. I myself mentioned a while ago that Kupe would happen in the 4th quarter and not the third. My posting was through a reliable source in the industry. I am therefore going by hearsay and for that i personally think its ok. Reason being i gave some reference to my knowledge. Remember though that even if my comment was true it doesnt mean that nzo can disclose the information since they are bound by the operator to a large degree.

Hard to explain this one as it may sound contradictory but i think one must look at what there intent is. Food for thought anyone?

[shasta]

Rumours can be dangerous as it may unfairly influence a posters view and in a worse case scenario sabotage a company's credibility etc. So i think if people are going to speculate or hear rumours then it would be professional to explain their reasoning.

I therefore am cautious when i see posters that condone rumours. Most of us generally know the difference but often we are all guilty of being sucked in by someone else saying something when there is no merit to it.

ps. I myself mentioned a while ago that Kupe would happen in the 4th quarter and not the third. My posting was through a reliable source in the industry. I am therefore going by hearsay and for that i personally think its ok. Reason being i gave some reference to my knowledge. Remember though that even if my comment was true it doesnt mean that nzo can disclose the information since they are bound by the operator to a large degree.

Hard to explain this one as it may sound contradictory but i think one must look at what there intent is. Food for thought anyone?

Reliable source within the industry?

Who would know about the AWE/NZO/Mitsui/PPP JV unless they were inside it?

i hope you aren't implying inside knowledge, which would be insider trading if acted upon?

Slippage in getting projects online is part & parcel of the O&G game, just check the ASX resource sector, cost overruns, delays etc & the norm.

If NZO gets Kupe up & running 3 months later than schedule, then that's a vast improvement on most projects!

I agree though, one must consider what someones agenda is when posting.

Pretty hard to ramp/downramp a $500m company & have any effect on the SP, unless your moving millions yourself...

[notie]

there is a lot of information that circulates around that share holders never get to see or hear. I think you guys should get to hear what other folk are saying about NZO.

[Nitaa]

there is a lot of information that circulates around that share holders never get to see or hear. I think you guys should get to hear what other folk are saying about NZO.

Anyway, the NZX market has opened and it looks like another day of under preformance for NZOG.

My issue with this company is it claims to be large company and with a huge 'war chest' , but the deals it has got itself involved in the last year have been pretty p1ssy and are very unlikely to be another Kupe or Tui.
They got involved in a permit off Otago/Canterbury but it is even chances that this permit will be passed in before a drill. AWE is again the operator, so they make the running on what happens.

All the current successes of nzog are based on wells discovered a long time ago (Kupe mid 1980's & Tui early 2000). There is nothing in their asset portfolio that is likely to be give them this sort of future success. They did operate Opito back in 2005, but through being too risk adverse weren't prepared to drill another well on it and handed it in only for that permit to be grabbed by another company. This is symptomatic of the problem with NZOG, they are too scared to make some bold investments. 250 million gets you a lot of drilling action.

No doubt I'll hear they usual apologists saying oh the investments presented to NZOG were too risky or didn't meet their criteria. NZOG were presented with a range of investments including an opportunity to get involved in onshore Taranaki in a study group and turned them all down.A bit of a double edge sword. If you jump into something and its not a good money earner then they will get battered. If they dont jump into something the same will happen. However at some point, the sharholders and board will want to see some results from their extra recruitment within the company.

There are some good points to raise at the next agm though isnt it?

[arjay]

there is a lot of information that circulates around that share holders never get to see or hear. I think you guys should get to hear what other folk are saying about NZO.




It must be very difficult for other folk to gossip about NZO without any of the 10,000-odd NZO shareholders getting wind of it. A very well constructed conspiracy indeed and very Nortie of them.

[BigBob]

My issue with this company is it claims to be large company and with a huge 'war chest' , but the deals it has got itself involved in the last year have been pretty p1ssy and are very unlikely to be another Kupe or Tui.

Why don't you sell out then...? Or if you don't hold then don't buy any... and then maybe when you're out, you can find another company to down ramp...?

[boysy]

Interesting for nzo seeing they hold 15% if this comes through for ppp looks like nzo will be set to gain aswell.

17th June, 2009

Drilling Update Block 07/03
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (“PPP”) reports that the Cá Rồng Đỏ (Red Emperor) exploration well within Block 07/03 Production Sharing Contract, offshore Vietnam, has been drilled to TD at a measured depth of 3,810m BRT having intersected the target intervals. The well was spudded on 6 May, 2009 using the semi-submersible drilling unit “Hakuryu-5".
The well encountered oil and gas shows while drilling and the results of logging with the Modular Dynamic Tester (MDT) and other wireline tools have established approximately 90m net pay comprising both oil and gas within multiple stacked reservoir layers. Operations are now underway to carry out a Drill Stem Test to evaluate the flow potential of the two most prospective oil reservoir intervals. Further work will be required to determine whether the oil and gas discovered are of potential commercial significance, and a further statement will be made when evaluation has been completed.
Block 07/03 covers 4,915 km2 in the prospective Nam Con Son Basin, and is adjacent to block12W which contains the Chim Sao and Dua Oil Fields.
Partners in the block are Premier Oil Vietnam South B.V. (“Premier”), Vietnam American Exploration Company, LLC. (“Vamex”, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pitkin Petroleum Plc), and PearlOil (Ophiolite) Ltd (“Pearl”). Upon completion of Pan Pacific Petroleum (Vietnam) Pty Ltd’s (“PPPV”) farmin obligations, the participating interests will be;
PPPV 15% (100% wholly-owned subsidiary of PPP)
Premier 30% (Operator)
Vamex 40%
Pearl 15%
The farmin agreement is subject to Vi

[gazprom1]

BigBob,

I have no idea whether or not Notie was trying to ramp the shares down or not but this forum is for the discussion of ideas that are relevant to shareholders/ potential shareholders. As a long-term holder of NOG, I think that Notie and others do make relevant points about the management of NOG. There has been an unprecedented opportunity for NOG to pick up assets in the last 6 months at attractive prices. Now, whether they have done enough is open for discussion. I would have liked them to have been a bit more aggressive. Shareholders are the appropriate people to voice their concerns about the company and its management and that can be via this forum or other forums such as the AGM. Just because Notie and others have an opinion does not mean they should not be shareholders.

I think that NOG has done an ok job through the current turmoil and our value as shareholders has been conserved in the most part. Kupe is very exciting and is going to provide long term cash flows for our company.

POO at these levels is fantastic for NOG....

[notie]

It must be very difficult for other folk to gossip about NZO without any of the 10,000-odd NZO shareholders getting wind of it. A very well constructed conspiracy indeed and very Nortie of them.

Yes conspiracies are great in the E&P sector. just read the book on the GSB about the hunt brothers finding something big down there.....

Many of the NZOG shareholder think the sun shines out the arse of their company whereas most of the oilers think the company is a bit of a joke. Talks the talk, but doesn't walk it.

I don't own or intend to buy any nzo shares and I hardly think these posting are going to change the price of these shares. That I think is all down to nzo's management and board and from their display over a period when there have been some unrivalled bargins in the E&P sector (oil at $40/barrel, companies going under due to shortages of funds) nzo seem to have sat on their hands and missed out on some great deals

[geezy]

notie,

too bad ur not on the board of director of any O&G company eh? I m sure u will make a great one ;)

Cheers , dont worry be happy

[manxman]

Interesting for nzo seeing they hold 15%

Drilling Update Block 07/03
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (“PPP”) reports that the Cá Rồng Đỏ (Red Emperor) exploration well within Block 07/03 Production Sharing Contract, offshore Vietnam, has been drilled to TD at a measured depth of 3,810m BRT having intersected the target intervals. The well was spudded on 6 May, 2009 using the semi-submersible drilling unit “Hakuryu-5".
The well encountered oil and gas shows while drilling and the results of logging with the Modular Dynamic Tester (MDT) and other wireline tools have established approximately 90m net pay comprising both oil and gas within multiple stacked reservoir layers. Operations are now underway to carry out a Drill Stem Test to evaluate the flow potential of the two most prospective oil reservoir intervals. Further work will be required to determine whether the oil and gas discovered are of potential commercial significance, and a further statement will be made when evaluation has been completed.
Block 07/03 covers 4,915 km2 in the prospective Nam Con Son Basin, and is adjacent to block12W which contains the Chim Sao and Dua Oil Fields.
Partners in the block are Premier Oil Vietnam South B.V. (“Premier”), Vietnam American Exploration Company, LLC. (“Vamex”, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pitkin Petroleum Plc), and PearlOil (Ophiolite) Ltd (“Pearl”). Upon completion of Pan Pacific Petroleum (Vietnam) Pty Ltd’s (“PPPV”) farmin obligations, the participating interests will be;
PPPV 15% (100% wholly-owned subsidiary of PPP)
Premier 30% (Operator)
Vamex 40%
Pearl 15%


So NZO have somewhere between 2.5% and 3% of this. Should pay for some superior sausage rolls at the AGM.

[boysy]

when / if ppp get farm in approval and if oil flows are commercial it will be worth alot of money to ppp. If this comes through for ppp i dont belive nzo will be able to afford a ppp takeover.

[manxman]

when / if ppp get farm in approval

Don't like the sound of that Boysy. Can you elaborate?

[boysy]

well ppp need vietnamese government approval this usually takes a few months. Clearlly ppp have to get approval before they can farm in to the project from premiers stake. Personally the risk is not that great as i belive the vietnamese government doesnt want to stifle forign investment. From the sounds of it ppp have met all of the obligations so far and are simply waiting for approval. Many things still need to be confirmed but they look on the right track.

[notie]

notie,

too bad ur not on the board of director of any O&G company eh? I m sure u will make a great one ;)

Cheers , dont worry be happy
:) I'm always happy Geezy!

[friedegg]

[QUOTE=notie;261239]Yes conspiracies are great in the E&P sector. just read the book on the GSB about the hunt brothers finding something big down there.....

Many of the NZOG shareholder think the sun shines out the arse of their company whereas most of the oilers think the company is a bit of a joke. Talks the talk, but doesn't walk it.
would most oilers be in the same finnancial position though?would most oilers have 3 income producing streams from 3 different commodities coming into play?would most oilers have a couple hundred million lying around?would most oilers pay a reasonable dividend?would most oilers have a reasonable stake in another oil co that has shot up in price since they brought?maybe most of your oiler buddies have grown tall poppy syndrome lately

[digger]

[QUOTE=notie;261239]Yes conspiracies are great in the E&P sector. just read the book on the GSB about the hunt brothers finding something big down there.....

Many of the NZOG shareholder think the sun shines out the arse of their company whereas most of the oilers think the company is a bit of a joke. Talks the talk, but doesn't walk it.
would most oilers be in the same finnancial position though?would most oilers have 3 income producing streams from 3 different commodities coming into play?would most oilers have a couple hundred million lying around?would most oilers pay a reasonable dividend?would most oilers have a reasonable stake in another oil co that has shot up in price since they brought?maybe most of your oiler buddies have grown tall poppy syndrome lately

Your on to it friedegg.You could have added more.
Way back last August i visted DS at wellington for a small meeting .He did not have much spare time as even then he said there was a stream of good deals coming NZO way that he had to look into. Since then they must have got better and better as NZO monies have increased while all around us money is getting less. So Notie is accidently correct that some people are not saying nice things about us.We did not take up there great offers and have now inhearted their jealousy. Top marks to the managment for taking there time to assess the large pool of deals that money now has. Personally i still want them to hold their horses and wait until all three projects are income earners,as this world finanical crises will not go away soon.In fact the next wave could be a lot worse. The deals might just get better and better.

[shasta]

there is a lot of information that circulates around that share holders never get to see or hear. I think you guys should get to hear what other folk are saying about NZO.

Anyway, the NZX market has opened and it looks like another day of under preformance for NZOG.

My issue with this company is it claims to be large company and with a huge 'war chest' , but the deals it has got itself involved in the last year have been pretty p1ssy and are very unlikely to be another Kupe or Tui.
They got involved in a permit off Otago/Canterbury but it is even chances that this permit will be passed in before a drill. AWE is again the operator, so they make the running on what happens.

All the current successes of nzog are based on wells discovered a long time ago (Kupe mid 1980's & Tui early 2000). There is nothing in their asset portfolio that is likely to be give them this sort of future success. They did operate Opito back in 2005, but through being too risk adverse weren't prepared to drill another well on it and handed it in only for that permit to be grabbed by another company. This is symptomatic of the problem with NZOG, they are too scared to make some bold investments. 250 million gets you a lot of drilling action.

No doubt I'll hear they usual apologists saying oh the investments presented to NZOG were too risky or didn't meet their criteria. NZOG were presented with a range of investments including an opportunity to get involved in onshore Taranaki in a study group and turned them all down.

Notie

We don't know what opportunities NZO have been presented with, do you?

NZO clearly stated they wouldn't be chasing just anything, nor would they be overpaying for any investment.

NZO's best best at the moment would be to get Kupe up & running, & help out Pike River (if required), before they go looking for more action.

There's not alot of quality assets out there, either cheap or available, so why not spend the money within your existing portfolio of leads?

I'm happy to wait a bit longer & see what NZO does, what's everyones rush here?

Having a cash pile & no debt may put NZO on the radar of others, but i suspect not while they still have the PRC holding.

[digger]

there is a lot of information that circulates around that share holders never get to see or hear. I think you guys should get to hear what other folk are saying about NZO.

Anyway, the NZX market has opened and it looks like another day of under preformance for NZOG.

My issue with this company is it claims to be large company and with a huge 'war chest' , but the deals it has got itself involved in the last year have been pretty p1ssy and are very unlikely to be another Kupe or Tui.
They got involved in a permit off Otago/Canterbury but it is even chances that this permit will be passed in before a drill. AWE is again the operator, so they make the running on what happens.

All the current successes of nzog are based on wells discovered a long time ago (Kupe mid 1980's & Tui early 2000). There is nothing in their asset portfolio that is likely to be give them this sort of future success. They did operate Opito back in 2005, but through being too risk adverse weren't prepared to drill another well on it and handed it in only for that permit to be grabbed by another company. This is symptomatic of the problem with NZOG, they are too scared to make some bold investments. 250 million gets you a lot of drilling action.

No doubt I'll hear they usual apologists saying oh the investments presented to NZOG were too risky or didn't meet their criteria. NZOG were presented with a range of investments including an opportunity to get involved in onshore Taranaki in a study group and turned them all down.


Notie you are increasing sounding like that greymouth CEO that shot his mouth off at Steve Rawson some years ago when he came up for reelection. Began with a presonal attack as you have done {Chris Roberts] and carried on to show he had just enought facts about the industry to twist them. Also never answer a reply to your comments if you do not like the direction it is heading.
For other posters[as you will not reply] your opening line can be said about any company or individual. There will always be info circulating that does not warrent attention. It is the job and requirement of any successful company to get on with stock piling the money and to hell with what the competitors think.
NZO is doing a great job with risk management.More companies getting into finanical trouble all the time and the deals are just getting better.
I understand your jealousy.

[boysy]

An article relating to tuis decline and maari's production

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand oil production increased for the first time since 2007 in the first quarter as OMV AG, central Europe’s biggest oil company, started deliveries from its offshore Maari field.

Crude oil, condensate and naphtha output rose to the equivalent of 4.27 million barrels of oil, up 0.3 percent from the fourth quarter, the Ministry of Economic Development said today. Maari started output in late February and produced 420,000 barrels in the quarter, helping to offset declines at the Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd.-led Tui field.

Maari, 80 kilometers (50 miles) off the Taranaki coast, is Vienna-based OMV’s first offshore project as an operator. Tui and Maari, drilled in 2007, are New Zealand’s first offshore oil projects since the Maui development in 1996.

Production in the quarter fell 27 percent from the same period a year earlier, reflecting Tui’s decline, the report said. Tui produced about a third less than six months earlier, the ministry said without being more specific.

New Zealand’s oil output rose to a record 21.6 million barrels last year, 45 percent higher than 2007 and about 6 percent higher than the previous record in 1997.

[Xerof]

I think Notie must have worked for APX :cool::cool: (speculation, not rumour)

Like digger, I'm very happy with the horses currently in the stable, including the dark horse called CASH.

[friedegg]

come on notie i want your MOST oilers list

[shasta]

Notie you are increasing sounding like that greymouth CEO that shot his mouth off at Steve Rawson some years ago when he came up for reelection. Began with a presonal attack as you have done {Chris Roberts] and carried on to show he had just enought facts about the industry to twist them. Also never answer a reply to your comments if you do not like the direction it is heading.
For other posters[as you will not reply] your opening line can be said about any company or individual. There will always be info circulating that does not warrent attention. It is the job and requirement of any successful company to get on with stock piling the money and to hell with what the competitors think.
NZO is doing a great job with risk management.More companies getting into finanical trouble all the time and the deals are just getting better.
I understand your jealousy.

Notie has admitted not holding NZO shares, & can gripe all he/she wants, it ain't going to bother NZO, or move the market for that matter.

Only shareholders get to vote ;)

Don't forget we had sharebroker/minder/haka/sniper/balance all do the same previously...

NZO seems to doing just nicely :D

[impacman]

For the record I'm in the glass half full camp - three reasons really
1. Oil
2. Gas
3. Coal

All with a good smoothering of Mr C.Ash:D

[shasta]

For the record I'm in the glass half full camp - three reasons really
1. Oil
2. Gas
3. Coal

All with a good smoothering of Mr C.Ash:D

Isn't that 4 separate glasses there? :D

NZO's investment in PRC must be worth over $NZ100m now too

[notie]

For the record I'm in the glass half full camp - three reasons really
1. Oil
2. Gas
3. Coal

All with a good smoothering of Mr C.Ash:D

Cash is getting historical high interest rates on bank deposits at the moment....

Where is the next tui in NZOG's portfolio.

Glad to give you boys something to talk about:p

[shasta]

Cash is getting historical high interest rates on bank deposits at the moment....

Where is the next tui in NZOG's portfolio.

Glad to give you boys something to talk about:p

It's called KUPE...

You should look it up :cool:

[digger]

It's called KUPE...

You should look it up :cool:

Kupe is too big to be called the next TUI.

[notie]

It's called KUPE...

You should look it up :cool:

and when was it discovered?

1986.....

So I'll repeat for your benefit where are the Kupes and Tuis in NZO's current exploration portfolio?

Kupe is different from Tui in that most of the asset is gas and the long term contract price is a lot less affected by the oil price movement that in the case of an oil project like Tui. What can make the project more attractive is the condensate and LPG coming off with the gas stream and this is what has made the Kupe project more economic. There will be a long steady revenue stream on this project for NZOG so lets hope they get involved in some elephants around the place.

PPP? Well I think NZOG have missed their chance on that one and the share price has doubled since Radford and the boys upped their holding then dug into their Christmas turkey. maybe they should have been a bit more aggressive then?

[shasta]

and when was it discovered?

1986.....

So I'll repeat for your benefit where are the Kupes and Tuis in NZO's current exploration portfolio?

Kupe is different from Tui in that most of the asset is gas and the long term contract price is a lot less affected by the oil price movement that in the case of an oil project like Tui. What can make the project more attractive is the condensate and LPG coming off with the gas stream and this is what has made the Kupe project more economic. There will be a long steady revenue stream on this project for NZOG so lets hope they get involved in some elephants around the place.

PPP? Well I think NZOG have missed their chance on that one and the share price has doubled since Radford and the boys upped their holding then dug into their Christmas turkey. maybe they should have been a bit more aggressive then?

Ok, when is it likely to come online, within 3 - 6 months, exciting aye?

Kupe is a much bigger project than Tui (just read the mmboe reserves on the nzo website)

Where are the next ones, hell lets rip these two apart for the next 10 years first aye, we can go elephant hunting when we sell the PRC holding.

NZO are then sitting on a tidy profit on there 15% of PPP, isn't that a good investment return for shareholders?

You're hard to please Notie!

[gazprom1]

Hey Notie,

I am taking my last dividend cheque from NOG and going for a few weeks travelling around the world. Will be sure look for my next dividend cheque in the mail when I return....what a company hey!! Better than money in the bank and they have that as well.

[Nitaa]

and when was it discovered?

1986.....

So I'll repeat for your benefit where are the Kupes and Tuis in NZO's current exploration portfolio?

Kupe is different from Tui in that most of the asset is gas and the long term contract price is a lot less affected by the oil price movement that in the case of an oil project like Tui. What can make the project more attractive is the condensate and LPG coming off with the gas stream and this is what has made the Kupe project more economic. There will be a long steady revenue stream on this project for NZOG so lets hope they get involved in some elephants around the place.

PPP? Well I think NZOG have missed their chance on that one and the share price has doubled since Radford and the boys upped their holding then dug into their Christmas turkey. maybe they should have been a bit more aggressive then?Notie. i love posters like you. A lot of bark but not bite. Actually i used to like having people like you for breakfast but i am a lot more mellow in my older age now.

ppp. i thought nzo jumped into it at an opportune time. Remember they sold ppp at 26 cps when they were cash strapped just prior to tui coming on stream. Now they have made about a 50% gain in 6 months. not bad, not bad at all dont you think.

Where is the next big elephant? Thats the $64b question isnt it? If you know then tell me and i may consider that in my portfolio

Cheers, Nita

[blockhead]

Just to help you Notie, this from NOG this morning,

Title: Tui Area Oil Fields

Updated production and oil price information has been added to the Tui page. Regional oil prices are at an 8 month high.

[boysy]

Looks as though TUI is really starting to decline after looking over the last few months production figures . Im guessing that production is now under 17,500 bopd .

figures
17/06 8,950,000 barrels from 1st july 08
10/06 8,850,000
31/05 8,650,000
21/05 8,500,000
14/05 8,400,000
6/05 8,300,000
30/4 8,100,000
23/04 8,000,000
16/04 7,900,000
9/04 7,750,000
2/04 7,600,000
27/03 7,500,000
18/03 7,300,000
11/03 7,200,000
4/03 7,000,000

For the 7-8 millionth barrel it took 50 days avg 20,000 bopd

for the 8-9 millionth barrel it has so far taken 56 days and we still have another 50,000 to go.

looks as though any finds round tui would be welcome boost to production if they can be fast tracted through the existing fpso facilities.

[Xerof]

Yes it's falling, but thats hardly new news. Their forecast production for this financial year was for a smidgeon over 1.1m barrels, and they are there already, with 2 weeks production to come.

I wish other companies could forecast that accurately.....

[boysy]

thats is a good point looks as though they will certainly beat the 9 million barrel production forcast all things going to plan. If i remember rightly the fpso can be joined to more wells as it can handle more than 3 wells ? also i remember hearing that they would try and increase the fluid handling capacity to 180,000 barrells a day i belive this has yet to happen ?

[Pipeline]

Xerof

I dont think NZOG had anything to do with that forecast except multiply it by their equity.

The plaudits for that particular piece of work should be aimed at AWE, as they do all the reservoir work.

Cheers

[Xerof]

Congrats to AWE - AWEsome forecasting

and yes, Boysy, 180,000 capacity was mentioned a while back, with a 12 month lead-in time if I recall correctly. Wasn't a certainty though - merely looking at the possibility

[manxman]

thats is a good point looks as though they will certainly beat the 9 million barrel production forcast all things going to plan. If i remember rightly the fpso can be joined to more wells as it can handle more than 3 wells ? also i remember hearing that they would try and increase the fluid handling capacity to 180,000 barrells a day i belive this has yet to happen ?

The fpso can handle five wells, but it already has four coupled up. If none of the nearby prospects is successful, the fallback plan was to drill another production well into the Tui reservoir, increasing the production rate and total recoverable reserves. If they get more than one strike, then they may need another fpso. Nice problem to have.

[digger]

Rumors are flying. Just heard on TV1 that there is talk of NZO taking out PPP. Also that PPP has PPPV which probably is in a oil find in Vietnam.
This story probably came from someone reading our talk here some weeks back.

[Nitaa]

Rumors are flying. Just heard on TV1 that there is talk of NZO taking out PPP. Also that PPP has PPPV which probably is in a oil find in Vietnam.
This story probably came from someone reading our talk here some weeks back.TV3 digger and also now on bloomberg

[boysy]

could someone post the links ?

[Nitaa]

could someone post the links ?My post was a joke there boysy and i suggest that diggers was as well.

Any offer from nzo on ppp would be a gamble right now.

certainly interesting times for us who are holding ppp

[digger]

My post was a joke there boysy and i suggest that diggers was as well.

Any offer from nzo on ppp would be a gamble right now.

certainly interesting times for us who are holding ppp


No Nita it was TV1 and would not make that sort of joke
Did anyone else hear it. Also up 5 cents on volumn less than 200 thousand is very suspicus. I think an enquiry is in order,but it could be just wild speculation.

[boysy]

http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/business-june-18-midday-markets-1-51-2788974/video

the link to talk of ppp and nzo on one news midday market report

[Xerof]

There's a sound bite on the TVNZ website under todays business news. Nothing new in any of the comments made - just that PPP have struck oil in Nam, and NZO, having 15% and "long rumoured" to be looking to T/O, would have a harder task now, given the rally in PPP shareprice.

I noticed the part of the story that said "I shot the prick" has been deleted though.........:D:D

[Nitaa]

No Nita it was TV1 and would not make that sort of joke
Did anyone else hear it. Also up 5 cents on volumn less than 200 thousand is very suspicus. I think an enquiry is in order,but it could be just wild speculation.Yes you are correct and as Boysy pointed out it was on tv1. However there is nothing new that hasnt already been disclosed. The 2 points you have alluded to are;

1/ ppp up 5 cps on small volume yestersday. This was due to the positive news from the Veitnam drill.

2/ Your comment "Just heard on TV1 that there is talk of NZO taking out PPP". This is nothing new and as the person commented on tv today, the higher shareprice in ppp is making any takeover becoming less likely and attractive.

I dont see anything there that all of us havent known. We all know that nzo like ppp hence the reason why they have bought back into ppp but it should be fairly predictable imo that nzo are no likely to make any more moves on ppp until a clear picture evolves from Veitnam

[digger]

Would you also believe that i never heard it either. It was at that exact time when it was my turn to make the cup of coffee,or tea. My wife sort of heard it but by the time i got there it was just completing and her interest in the subject is not as intence as mind so payed little attention. All i could make out at the closing stages was as i first said but wanted to hear what others might have heard. My first impression was that the news media is about where we all were a month ago.

[oldowl]

Digger, If you want you can hear it by clicking this link:
http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/business-june-18-midday-markets-1-51-2788974/video
OO

[corporateraider]

I wonder if Chris Roberts finds all this talk unhelpful?

[shasta]

I wonder if Chris Roberts finds all this talk unhelpful?

Ring him & ask him :rolleyes:

I'm sure most listed companies PR folk, are far too busy to worry about what is said in online share fourms!

[notie]

I wonder if Chris Roberts finds all this talk unhelpful?

given that some people are floating the idea that NZOG is going to make an offer for PPP which would blow ~100 million of their precious war chest then I guess he might think this talk is unhelpful:o

[corporateraider]

Notie, would you go so far as to describe it as "a rumour" or "an industry rumour"?

[shasta]

given that some people are floating the idea that NZOG is going to make an offer for PPP which would blow ~100 million of their precious war chest then I guess he might think this talk is unhelpful:o

Not sure i would consider spending $100m on PPP, as "blowing it".

Especially if the near Tui prospects are commercial discoveries & can be tied back to the FPSO.

Those funds could be replaced by the sale of the PRC holding!

[notie]

Not sure i would consider spending $100m on PPP, as "blowing it".

Especially if the near Tui prospects are commercial discoveries & can be tied back to the FPSO.

There is an old saying in E&P, don't put all your eggs in one basket.:rolleyes:

[corporateraider]

"E&P" is eggs and poultry?

[shasta]

There is an old saying in E&P, don't put all your eggs in one basket.:rolleyes:

So rather than staying in the Taranaki basin, where NZO & JV partners have the seismic data & know the structures fairly well, you would rather the BPT "global approach"?

NZO could look at CSG, UCG, Hot Rocks, Coal mining, Wind farms, extracting methane from cow pats, who knows...

But let's stick with what we know (oil & gas) & in the area we know.

The Romanian project looks like a cheap opportunistic play, to test the waters...

Question is, does NZO wanna join the masses in OZ/US onshore, or do we start hunting for offshore elephants (Phillipines, SE Asia etc)

[digger]

There is an old saying in E&P, don't put all your eggs in one basket.:rolleyes:

What most tend to err on here is that PPP is a different more valuable company if PPPV is successful. 75cents a share would be a better deal if successful than the origional 35 cents was when the first 15% of ppp was bought.On the other hand if bought at 75 now and PPPV is booted out or for some reason not yet know is a failure then the 100 million would indeed be waisted. Therefor no action if every any until the results are known.
strange how we are talking about unhelpful comments on sharetrader then TV1 starts up.

[Billy Boy]

strange how we are talking about unhelpful comments on sharetrader then TV1 starts up.

Quite right Digger
I have found TV1 (&TV3) to be quite missleading in the past as they
dont know what they are saying.
When they bring in Gaynor or Morgan then things can be different.
I like to tape any news reports so as too FF all the crap (95%)
and repeditive TV made Saga's.
e.g. Who gave a stuff about Tony Veitch's bizz ?? Only TV !!
BB

[boxing_beaver]

NZ Oil & Gas cut to "hold" by research unit

Thursday 18th June 2009

New Zealand Oil & Gas, whose stock has gained 28% this year as crude oil rallied, was cut to “hold” at Morningstar’s Aspect Huntley research unit, which said the company has limited scope to extend its gains from current levels.

Shares of NZOG slipped 1.2% to $1.60 today. The shares are valued at $1.65 based on sum-of-parts and discounted cash flow valuations, Aspect Huntley said in a report this week. While NZOG will benefit from higher prices, is well resourced to expand and has some promising reserves, it is a relatively new player in oil exploration and would face a gradual decline in sales and earnings if it can’t find additional reserves.

NZOG is forecast to post profit of about $42 million in 2009, excluding unrealized foreign currency and derivative gains, rising to $52 million in 2010, the research firm said. The company is being cautious in committing its $200 million of cash to acquisitions to avoid overpaying, though as the price of crude rises, potential sellers will lift their expectations of asset values.

Brent spot crude has soared about 60% this year, part of a rally in commodities that’s been helped by China’s thirst for raw materials. Crude was recently at US$69.29 a barrel, up from US$43.29 at the start of the year.

The company’s 12.5%-owned Tui oilfield is likely to meet management’s full-year output forecast of 9.2 million barrels, while Kupe’s 2010 output will be a lower-than-expected 2.8 million barrels, reflecting the delay to production to the fourth quarter of calendar 2009, it said. Kupe output will rise to 5.67 million barrels equivalent in 2011.

Businesswire.co.nz

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/95905442/nz-oil-gas-cut-to-hold-by-research-unit.html

[Rif-Raf]

NZ Oil & Gas cut to "hold" by research unit

Thursday 18th June 2009

New Zealand Oil & Gas, whose stock has gained 28% this year as crude oil rallied, was cut to “hold” at Morningstar’s Aspect Huntley research unit, which said the company has limited scope to extend its gains from current levels.

Shares of NZOG slipped 1.2% to $1.60 today. The shares are valued at $1.65 based on sum-of-parts and discounted cash flow valuations, Aspect Huntley said in a report this week. While NZOG will benefit from higher prices, is well resourced to expand and has some promising reserves, it is a relatively new player in oil exploration and would face a gradual decline in sales and earnings if it can’t find additional reserves.

NZOG is forecast to post profit of about $42 million in 2009, excluding unrealized foreign currency and derivative gains, rising to $52 million in 2010, the research firm said. The company is being cautious in committing its $200 million of cash to acquisitions to avoid overpaying, though as the price of crude rises, potential sellers will lift their expectations of asset values.

Brent spot crude has soared about 60% this year, part of a rally in commodities that’s been helped by China’s thirst for raw materials. Crude was recently at US$69.29 a barrel, up from US$43.29 at the start of the year.

The company’s 12.5%-owned Tui oilfield is likely to meet management’s full-year output forecast of 9.2 million barrels, while Kupe’s 2010 output will be a lower-than-expected 2.8 million barrels, reflecting the delay to production to the fourth quarter of calendar 2009, it said. Kupe output will rise to 5.67 million barrels equivalent in 2011.

Businesswire.co.nz

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/95905442/nz-oil-gas-cut-to-hold-by-research-unit.html

Surprising comments, does the analyst not put any weight on the value of earnings from coal (PRC) and gas(Kupe)?

How many years do you have to serve your apprenticeship for to lose the label of newcomer? I think NZOG started exploring in the early 80's

[notie]

Surprising comments, does the analyst not put any weight on the value of earnings from coal (PRC) and gas(Kupe)?

How many years do you have to serve your apprenticeship for to lose the label of newcomer? I think NZOG started exploring in the early 80's

The value of the gas from Kupe has been factored in on the value of the NZOG shares by most research units for a while now. Coal prices have dived following the drop off in iron and steel smelting in China.

NZOG have been around for a while so newcomer isn't quite right.

[KentBrockman]

given that some people are floating the idea that NZOG is going to make an offer for PPP which would blow ~100 million of their precious war chest then I guess he might think this talk is unhelpful:o

you mean NZO would pay 17c/s for PPP plus some NZO scrip?

Pull the other one. NZO was unlikely to ever gain control of PPP with their cheapish approach half a year ago, and it is even less likely now (unless the Vietnam thingy falters and no further oil is found around TUI (and if that was so, why would they want PPP anyway)).

I think we can well and truly say that NZO's attempt at PPP has failed. The best outcome for NZO's foray into PPP will now be to hope for a positive outcome of the Vietnam drilling and then sell their stake while having (probably more than-) doubled their money.

[fish]

Surprising comments, does the analyst not put any weight on the value of earnings from coal (PRC) and gas(Kupe)?

How many years do you have to serve your apprenticeship for to lose the label of newcomer? I think NZOG started exploring in the early 80's

A friend of mine has suggested Aspect Huntley might be trying to manipulate the market for the benefit of their own clients .
He notes that they put out a valuation in march at the same price -1.65 and recommended accumulate . Despite the gain in value of ppp and prc and increase in oil prices plus improved market sentiment and general increase in resource stock valuations they now give a less optimistic outlook-to their own clients a couple of weeks before releasing to the press .

In my opinion the abn ambro craigs valuation a few weeks ago could (given the rapid increase in price oil) be upgraded beyond the $1.95 they suggest .
If we get the 12c dividend ? plus ?tax credits they forcast in august/sept this could propel the sp above $2

[notie]

you mean NZO would pay 17c/s for PPP plus some NZO scrip?

Pull the other one. NZO was unlikely to ever gain control of PPP with their cheapish approach half a year ago, and it is even less likely now (unless the Vietnam thingy falters and no further oil is found around TUI (and if that was so, why would they want PPP anyway)).

I think we can well and truly say that NZO's attempt at PPP has failed. The best outcome for NZO's foray into PPP will now be to hope for a positive outcome of the Vietnam drilling and then sell their stake while having (probably more than-) doubled their money.

I'm in agreement with you there Kent. Far too late for nzo to mount a takeover now. the 100 million figure was based on nzo buying another 35% at current market rate so they cross the 50% threshold (I assumed they held 15% already).

It is a very unlikely outcome now given that PPP share price has risen and any interest shown by nzo in buying more shares would precipitate a run on the PPP shares. NZO should have moved when they had the chance back at christmas:eek:

[notie]

that would be the same abn ambro craig that valued a dog called austral pacific at $6.40 in 2006. http://http://www.austral-pacific.com/ir-reports/ABNapx2707.06.pdf

last time I looked these guys were in receivership and weren't trading anymore.

[boysy]

looks as though nzo has missed the bus. In there defence they had no idea this vietnam exploration could play out in the way it has. If there is a commercial find and flow rates are good and ppp get farm in approval i would expect ppp market cap to approach if not overtake nzo current market cap. The train is leaving the station and i dont think nzo is running after this one.

[digger]

looks as though nzo has missed the bus. In there defence they had no idea this vietnam exploration could play out in the way it has. If there is a commercial find and flow rates are good and ppp get farm in approval i would expect ppp market cap to approach if not overtake nzo current market cap. The train is leaving the station and i dont think nzo is running after this one.

We are of coa-rse dealing in hindsight here. We all somewhat missed the train not only NZO. So hands up who bought in at say 26 before the NZO move. Not me. Who rebought in at 35 where it was for a long time B4 the PPPV venture. I bought another 120,000 then but with hindsight should have emptied the bank. NZO shows a good profit so far and yes it could have been better as yours could have been too.
Really we have to accept that PPP is different especially if PPPV is successful.The drill could end up a company maker.

[Casa del Energia]

looks as though nzo has missed the bus. In there defence they had no idea this vietnam exploration could play out in the way it has. If there is a commercial find and flow rates are good and ppp get farm in approval i would expect ppp market cap to approach if not overtake nzo current market cap. The train is leaving the station and i dont think nzo is running after this one.

I would be concerned if NZO did go running after this train - it would imply that they are market speculators not production developers and explorers. Too many fail by not sticking to thier knitting.

[fish]

[QUOTE=notie;261584]that would be the same abn ambro craig that valued a dog called austral pacific at $6.40 in 2006. http://http://www.austral-pacific.com/ir-reports/ABNapx2707.06.pdf


I doubt it -would imagine their team has changed and certainly i find they make a lot of sense .
In contrast anyone who cant see the reasons for an increase in valuation for nzo between march and june could have their head burried in the sand or could be trying to mislead the market

[neopoleII]

the simple fact is NZO is cheap at this price, but mr market is comprised of traders and speculators at the moment, and the long term investors are already in and moms and pops are clutching the last of their dollars.
Until kupe comes on line, or a divi anouncment is made or a drill is in progress, the sp will languish/drift along with the price of poo.

PPP has the same investor problem........ there arent many, just speculators and traders.
if/when veitnam becomes hard fact, a direction will become visable, then things will really happen.

moms and pops are looking for "green shoots" too, but with little info and not much more knowledge of future direction from both NZO and PPP, only the experienced investor is going to enter.
sooner or later, both companies will become transparent to the ordinary investor, when that happens, sp should rise, by that time the traders have cleaned up and moved on.

I myself know the potential of both co's and have held for many years, but am still reluctant to take a bigger bite, for the simple reason of extending too much.
so moms and pops are even more risk averse...........

ALL of my friends think im crazy being in the sharemarket at this particular time, ...... that just shows me the risk aversion out there, which is demonstrated in the low sp of shinning companies like NZO.

[sideline]

A friend of mine has suggested Aspect Huntley might be trying to manipulate the market for the benefit of their own clients .
He notes that they put out a valuation in march at the same price -1.65 and recommended accumulate . Despite the gain in value of ppp and prc and increase in oil prices plus improved market sentiment and general increase in resource stock valuations they now give a less optimistic outlook-to their own clients a couple of weeks before releasing to the press .

In my opinion the abn ambro craigs valuation a few weeks ago could (given the rapid increase in price oil) be upgraded beyond the $1.95 they suggest .
If we get the 12c dividend ? plus ?tax credits they forcast in august/sept this could propel the sp above $2
Aspect Huntley are the outfit which usually has buys on the banks and other financial institutions
(at least until the crash) - they just don't understand or aprecciate other industries.

[sideline]

We are of coa-rse dealing in hindsight here. We all somewhat missed the train not only NZO. So hands up who bought in at say 26 before the NZO move. Not me. Who rebought in at 35 where it was for a long time B4 the PPPV venture. I bought another 120,000 then but with hindsight should have emptied the bank. NZO shows a good profit so far and yes it could have been better as yours could have been too.
Really we have to accept that PPP is different especially if PPPV is successful.The drill could end up a company maker.

I never believed that NZO wanted to take over PPP. There was a time when PPP was seriously
undervalued during the course of the crash - I think the share price might at times have been below
cash backing. So NZO supported the share price to prevent a predatory takeover and sit now on a tidy
paper profit for that. Remember the companies are somewhat connected personnel-wise.

[upside_umop]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

[shasta]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

You're quite right UU

Although some of the bigger broking firms can be quite lazy & value prize assets as merely nominal values.

I've seen this done so many times, i usually dont bother with them anymore!

I guess an asset has to be producing cashflows to get a reliable DCF.

Some-of-the-parts is still a bit lax in my book...:rolleyes:

Some of the FA analysis i post on ST, i can knock up literally in a few minutes, once i've researched the company...

It's amazing what you can learn in 2 or 3 hours research on any chosen company!

[fish]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

We are talking about an actual substantial rise in oil price and the sp of ppp and prc plus a further 3 months of revenue between March and june .
How can the valuation be the same .This certainly doesnt add up in my opinion .
I dont subscribe to a-h so cant analyse their valuation .

I really would appreciate seeing a valuation from experienced masters of valuation -like waihoek or unicorn .

[Grimy]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

I also agree with what you say. Was working up to say something, but having had a couple of wines (hey, it's Friday night!) I'm glad someone else said it (and better than I could).

[boysy]

Are people forgeting NZO is in the middle of 2 projects which are yet to be producing of course pike and kupe still have a level of risk attached to them and therefore discounted as such. NZO has cash but its sole producing asset is declining and kupe has been delayed and pike has been continually delayed and beset by problems.While these problems are working themselves out you can hardly blame the brokers valuations they have every reason to be prudent in there valuations in these turbulant times.

[fish]

[QUOTE=boysy;261624]Are people forgeting NZO is in the middle of 2 projects which are yet to be producing of course pike and kupe still have a level of risk attached to them and therefore discounted as such. NZO has cash but its sole producing asset is declining and kupe has been delayed and pike has been continually delayed and beset by problems.While these problems are working themselves out you can hardly blame the brokers valuations they have every reason to be prudent in there valuations in these turbulant times.[/QUOTE

I would have thought the risk was lower now than 3 months ago or even a year ago-so why a hold rather than buy and why a lower valuation-
a year ago -Stock takes RSS Email Print
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stock takes: Happy effect
Page 1 of 3 View as a single page 5:00AM Friday Jul 18, 2008
By Adam Bennett
GUSHING OVER OIL

Analysts continue to praise New Zealand Oil and Gas, and with oil and coal prices where they are at present, why wouldn't you?

Aspect Huntley have raised their full year 2009 net profit forecast for the company from $58 million to $102 million based on management's increased estimates of oil reserves from the Tui field. They also raised their full year 2008 npat forecast by 7.3 per cent to $132 million.

Aspect Huntley has also raised its fair value estimate for the company by 10c to $1.83 a share.

Last night, NZ Oil and Gas closed 5c lower at $1.66.

Like other analysts that cover the stock, Aspect Huntley are wondering what the company will do with the $130 million it raised in its recent rights issue. The options they see include "an active exploration programme" or acquisitions.

NZ Oil and Gas has also benefited from the surging fortunes of Pike River Coal, in which it holds a 31 per cent stake.

]

[shasta]

We are talking about an actual substantial rise in oil price and the sp of ppp and prc plus a further 3 months of revenue between March and june .
How can the valuation be the same .This certainly doesnt add up in my opinion .
I dont subscribe to a-h so cant analyse their valuation .

I really would appreciate seeing a valuation from experienced masters of valuation -like waihoek or unicorn .

Fish

Aspect Huntley provide the research & broker valuations on the ASB Sec website.

There HOLD recommendation (@ $1.65) was updated 16/06/09.

With the forecast drop in revenue for 2009/10, they have NZO on a P/E of between 11 - 12, about average i guess...

They have forecast eps @ 14.4c for 2010, so on 385m shares they are forecasting NPAT at roughly $NZ55m.

[777]

We are talking about an actual substantial rise in oil price and the sp of ppp and prc plus a further 3 months of revenue between March and june .
How can the valuation be the same .This certainly doesnt add up in my opinion .
I dont subscribe to a-h so cant analyse their valuation .

I really would appreciate seeing a valuation from experienced masters of valuation -like waihoek or unicorn .

There is a name from the past. Waaihoek hasn't been on this forum for nearly two years. It is a shame to lose the likes of him. There are a few others who have gone awol as well.