NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[the machine]

Origin’s Bass drilling delayed by damage to Kan Tan IV


Monday, 3 August 2009

ORIGIN Energy’s upcoming drilling campaign in the Bass Basin has been pushed back to September after the contracted semi-submersible Kan Tan IV drilling rig was damaged.



Minority partner Innamincka Petroleum said the rig sustained damages to the aft crane and crane boom while preparing for the two-well drilling campaign in Port Geelong.

The drilling campaign was expected to start at the end of the July.

According to Innamincka, the rig will remain on zero rate while repairs are carried out.

The two-well campaign includes the drilling of the Trefoil-2 appraisal well and the Rockhopper-1 exploration well in T/18P.

Trefoil has estimated resources of about 220 petajoules of gas and 14.5 million barrels of liquids while Rockhopper has about 200PJ of gas and 13MMbbl of liquids.

Following the drilling in the Bass Basin, Kan Tan IV will move to New Zealand, where it will drill at least two wells for two joint ventures operated by Australian Worldwide Exploration before drilling two Northland wildcats for Origin.

Origin Energy holds a 39% interest in T/18P and is operator. AWE has 47.5% while Innamincka holds the remaining 5%.


will delay nz drilling program by at least a month

M

[digger]

Mexico gov't doubts mount on Chicontepec oil project

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The multibillion-dollar megaproject that Mexico hopes will turn around its slumping oil industry is being questioned by some officials as results fall short, according to a source familiar with the issue.
State oil monopoly Pemex has banked on an $11 billion plan to tap the unconventional Chicontepec crude deposit to shore up output as yields at other fields plummet, sending Mexican oil production to near 20-year lows.

However, Chicontepec was producing only 30,800 barrels per day in June, a modest rise from December. After years of missed targets and with $3.4 billion already sunk into the project by the end of last year, grumbling about its cost is growing.

"They are coming under a lot of pressure because some people in the government are unhappy with the results. They have spent a lot of money and people are wondering why there is not more oil," the source said, echoing private remarks made recently by several government officials.

There's more… (4008 words) | Comments (149) | Permalink | Without comments

Have a look at the money spent on this project for a lousy 30,000 barrels a day. Now compare that with TUI that was developed for only 274 million.TUI certainly was and still is a sweet deal.The only sad thing here is that the dollar going so high we and all exporters are currently still loosing it all on exchange rates.

[the machine]

kupe reserves update must be due very soon and hopefully before annual result in a couple of weeks

M

[boysy]

well hey while nzo isnt moving much at least its shareholding in ppp is moving well ahead nzo must be close to 100% gain with ppp @ $0.70

[Nitaa]

well hey while nzo isnt moving much at least its shareholding in ppp is moving well ahead nzo must be close to 100% gain with ppp @ $0.70Hindsight shows nzo made an excellent move when they secured about 15% of PPP. Reality is that there are sufficient blocking stakes to prevent a takover unless you can but AT's shares at a premium. At present i suggest just enjoy the ride

[dsurf]

Hindsight shows nzo made an excellent move when they secured about 15% of PPP. Reality is that there are sufficient blocking stakes to prevent a takover unless you can but AT's shares at a premium. At present i suggest just enjoy the ride

still scratching my head as to why they did not want 100%

[boysy]

NZO couldnt get complete ownership of ppp without the directors being on board and they would expect a hefty premiem which i guess nzo did not want to pay.

[neopoleII]

if the vietnam venture comes in and the sp keeps rising, could ppp take on nzo?

[geezy]

not much action on NZO's end even with rises in PRC and PPP's prices. Waiting for Aug 28th announcement for SP movement perhaps?

[Rabbi]

not much action on NZO's end even with rises in PRC and PPP's prices. Waiting for Aug 28th announcement for SP movement perhaps?

I don't think the full year result will have any effect on the SP as most of that information is already known. An increased dividend would, if anything, push the SP down, at least in the short term.

Wait till the Kan Tan 1V rig gets here; then you will see some action.:)

[Bilo]

An increased dividend would, if anything, push the SP down, at least in the short term.:)

I don't understand your logic here at all Rabbi. NZO have undertaken to pay dividends when they can afford to. Tui has enabled them to so far. They anticipated when Kupe commenced generating revenue they would be able to pay a significant dividend every year for the next 15years. With dividends also due to NZO from their investment in PRC, NZO have the capacity to pay heaps of dividends over the next 20years. I expect that a 10cps dividend will move the share price, and an intention to pay 10cps for the next 15years will push the share price much higher. NZO is not an ASX spec oiler - it is trying to retain its investors and ensure adequate returns to holders - not just traders.

Certainly a strategy to retain a strong share price is a better option for NZO than to cash up fanatastic investments (like Kupe and Pike River) so that they can pour these hard earned gains down the next drill hole. Better to have the ability to raise heaps more funds from wealthy existing shareholders for new projects than to turn your back on them and hope to find new backers. IMO

A 5% dividend yield plus the prospect of further growth through the drill bit should push the share price well over $2.

What is your logic on the SP going down with a return on funds invested to shareholders? How else can people who have backed them this far get a return on their investment?

[Nitaa]

I don't understand your logic here at all Rabbi. NZO have undertaken to pay dividends when they can afford to. Tui has enabled them to so far. They anticipated when Kupe commenced generating revenue they would be able to pay a significant dividend every year for the next 15years. With dividends also due to NZO from their investment in PRC, NZO have the capacity to pay heaps of dividends over the next 20years. I expect that a 10cps dividend will move the share price, and an intention to pay 10cps for the next 15years will push the share price much higher. NZO is not an ASX spec oiler - it is trying to retain its investors and ensure adequate returns to holders - not just traders.

Certainly a strategy to retain a strong share price is a better option for NZO than to cash up fanatastic investments (like Kupe and Pike River) so that they can pour these hard earned gains down the next drill hole. Better to have the ability to raise heaps more funds from wealthy existing shareholders for new projects than to turn your back on them and hope to find new backers. IMO

A 5% dividend yield plus the prospect of further growth through the drill bit should push the share price well over $2.

What is your logic on the SP going down with a return on funds invested to shareholders? How else can people who have backed them this far get a return on their investment?I am supporting Rabbi here. I see where you are coming from but I feel as astute investors look to find quality stocks then they will not want to see the likes of NZO giving away $40m approx pa in dividends. NZO is still a small company by global standards and will have to reinvest a huge chunk to grow their operations. Kupe, Tui and Pike all have a finite period to produce the goods so like any oil company, nzo can just sit there giving out dividends without the expensive search finding the pots of gold. In saying all that, nzo will payout annual dividends but i hope its not too much in comparision to their financial position.

Your point regarding the strategy of retaining a strong SP is an interesting one. My view on that is no the amount of dividends it pays out but the company's ability to find new and bigger revenue streams. Again i dont want nzo to be short sighted and only think of the next 5 or 10 years only. They will have to think way beyond that.

[dsurf]

NZO couldnt get complete ownership of ppp without the directors being on board and they would expect a hefty premiem which i guess nzo did not want to pay.

I am suggesting that if they had have gone for 100% they would have pitched it at say 50C. They then woulf have got for arguments sake 40 to 60 %. At a later time if they desire they make a higher bid like normal practise to attract the remaining %. Have a look at the long history of NZ companies bought out by Ausies over a number of years. They always pitch the first bid low but they move quickly.

[boysy]

im not sure nzo would be willing to spend all of their cash and then some to get a 50% stake in ppp. The question going foward is what is nzo plan for ppp clearly nzo are running due dilligence over another asset as mentioned in the webcast will be interesting to see what they are chasing if the decide to release the information.

[the machine]

im not sure nzo would be willing to spend all of their cash and then some to get a 50% stake in ppp. The question going foward is what is nzo plan for ppp clearly nzo are running due dilligence over another asset as mentioned in the webcast will be interesting to see what they are chasing if the decide to release the information.

opportunity for nzo to make a play for controlling slice of ppp at a reasonable cost has past IMO. by controlling slice I mean between 50 - 80%

to their credit nzo were responsible for initial meaningful gain in ppp back in dec
and since then their investment [using SP funds] has doubled.

further upside of this investment is governed by vietnam decisions [a timeline for these would be handy] and the POO plus the drillbit

M

[digger]

OK who is taking the share instead of cash..I have signed up to go entirely that way. The 2.5% is miserable but unless you have immediate need for the cash it probable is still the way to go. Interesting to see what take up on this very low discount will receive.Will hold these dividend share in seperate account and sell some if and when money is needed.
Results should be out week tomorrow.

[Casa del Energia]

OK who is taking the share instead of cash..I have signed up to go entirely that way. The 2.5% is miserable but unless you have immediate need for the cash it probable is still the way to go. Interesting to see what take up on this very low discount will receive.Will hold these dividend share in seperate account and sell some if and when money is needed.
Results should be out week tomorrow.

Not me. But generally don't enter share plans - take money and amalagate many divs to allow re-direction of investment into 'new' areas or buy bigger lumps in underweight areas.

Or just buy food for the table - some of us are impoverished, not being on a benefit.

[COLIN]

OK who is taking the share instead of cash..I have signed up to go entirely that way. The 2.5% is miserable but unless you have immediate need for the cash it probable is still the way to go. Interesting to see what take up on this very low discount will receive.Will hold these dividend share in seperate account and sell some if and when money is needed.
Results should be out week tomorrow.
Shares for me. I agree that the discount rate is rather miserly but anything is better than nil, and I usually opt for the DRP's where offered at a discount.

[Rabbi]

I took all mine in shares and if the market stays around this level they will be a bargain, with no brokerage to boot.:)

[blockhead]

Shares for Blocky

Would only spend the div cash on NZO or PRC if I had it so may as well leave it in NZO

[777]

Well I spent what I expect the dividend to be (5c) on buying them today at 161c. Will then take the cash.

[friedegg]

after 5 years and quite a few headaches,i shall be looking for an exit strategy before sept so doesnt matter to me shares or cash,would have hoped for a bit better than the low 160s,but debt and no work has sort of forced its hand

[fish]

after 5 years and quite a few headaches,i shall be looking for an exit strategy before sept so doesnt matter to me shares or cash,would have hoped for a bit better than the low 160s,but debt and no work has sort of forced its hand

There is a lot of potential for a substantial sp rise in the near future so if you have any choice friedegg dont sell them all in this undervalued nervous market !
-like digger I will be getting my dividend in shares-a 2.5% discount is all the incentive I need

[Grimy]

Haven't decided as yet, but leaning towards taking the shares.
Although I often do as Casa del Energia said and put my dividends together and buy something totally different, or something I own that's trading at a good price.

[digger]

Thanks for all the comments about div or shares.We have only a week now until we know the results. Somewhere between 7 to 10 cents with my guess at 90% confidence.
The real big events from NZO is not the div but the plans for the rest of the money.Hope this is settled before the AGM so then we can go into some discussion on what we did not go into. Like what bermuda says how much has NZO looked at coal seam gas.Seems to be all the rage these last 12 months and they would be the experts to know the inside facts.Must have also studied a lot of potential farm in drills.It is all exciting stuff to look forward to
Cheers for now and who is planing to come to the AGM??

[Nitaa]

Thanks for all the comments about div or shares.We have only a week now until we know the results. Somewhere between 7 to 10 cents with my guess at 90% confidence.
The real big events from NZO is not the div but the plans for the rest of the money.Hope this is settled before the AGM so then we can go into some discussion on what we did not go into. Like what bermuda says how much has NZO looked at coal seam gas.Seems to be all the rage these last 12 months and they would be the experts to know the inside facts.Must have also studied a lot of potential farm in drills.It is all exciting stuff to look forward to
Cheers for now and who is planing to come to the AGM??i am picking 5 or 6 cps divi.

[Bixbite]

Thanks for all the comments about div or shares.We have only a week now until we know the results. Somewhere between 7 to 10 cents with my guess at 90% confidence.


As “wool comes from sheep”, if the company could get 50% or more of shares’ holders to participate the dividend reinvestment plan, a net10-cents divi is better than a net 5-cents divi.

[Crypto Crude]

hey all,
anyone want to tell us about an exciting story they had with NZO...
perhaps how Tui changed their lives?
or how they missed the market crash holding NZO?
what you have taken from the experience?

it would be good to hear a success story while we wait on NZO to take the next step unfolding very soon......
:cool:
.^sc

[the machine]

will be taking the cash and spend on something nice

over years have funded quite a lot of nzo and now its payback time

looking forward ro many more years of being able to spend the divi from nzo [& prc] on something nice

M

[the machine]

hey all,
anyone want to tell us about an exciting story they had with NZO...
perhaps how Tui changed their lives?
or how they missed the market crash holding NZO?
what you have taken from the experience?

it would be good to hear a success story while we wait on NZO to take the next step unfolding very soon......
:cool:
.^sc

first bought nzo after hoschetter was a dead duck [just missed the 15c au entry price] and have lived the oil dream since then, from one drill to the next.

owned about 130,000 at one stage with average buy under 30c au and have sold down over the years to pay for one thing or another [half a boat @ au$1.10 for one]

still own 39,200 and have sort of convinced my wife they should be viewed as a dividend income stream instead of a risky share investment

no need to sell anymore shares and was even toying with buying some more last week, but bought another 200,000 kasbah instead

M

[Casa del Energia]

hey all,
anyone want to tell us about an exciting story they had with NZO...
perhaps how Tui changed their lives?
or how they missed the market crash holding NZO?
what you have taken from the experience?

it would be good to hear a success story while we wait on NZO to take the next step unfolding very soon......
:cool:
.^sc

Have been holding about half a dozen different shares for a while - doing all the 'good' stuff like spreading investments across shares and other asset classes and all that good stuff.

But the fun only really started with NZO. Bought a few as a punt, bought a few more as a bigger punt and bought more because I got… hooked on oil. The thrill of the drill. There must be something in the human psyche that enjoys the 'hunting' aspect of prospecting. And then Tui happened - it was the worst thing that could have occured - I couldn't leave it alone - I became obsessed, friends drifted away, the lawns never got mowed, the kids were taken into state care due to neglect and the cat died because I forgot to feed it. Anyway - have become a drill bit addict and fully intend increasing my stake to feed this addiction. Most annual reports I either skim read of leave on the coffee table for months and then throw out. NZO reports I read from cover to cover and savour every word. How sick is that?

I wonder if there will be Wildcat Anonymous Meetings starting up sometime….

"Yes, I spent the grocery money on oil shares, I'm ashamed of it - but I couldn't help myself at the time"

[Nitaa]

Have been holding about half a dozen different shares for a while - doing all the 'good' stuff like spreading investments across shares and other asset classes and all that good stuff.

But the fun only really started with NZO. Bought a few as a punt, bought a few more as a bigger punt and bought more because I got… hooked on oil. The thrill of the drill. There must be something in the human psyche that enjoys the 'hunting' aspect of prospecting. And then Tui happened - it was the worst thing that could have occured - I couldn't leave it alone - I became obsessed, friends drifted away, the lawns never got mowed, the kids were taken into state care due to neglect and the cat died because I forgot to feed it. Anyway - have become a drill bit addict and fully intend increasing my stake to feed this addiction. Most annual reports I either skim read of leave on the coffee table for months and then throw out. NZO reports I read from cover to cover and savour every word. How sick is that?

I wonder if there will be Wildcat Anonymous Meetings starting up sometime….

"Yes, I spent the grocery money on oil shares, I'm ashamed of it - but I couldn't help myself at the time"Its ok. We have set up a support network that caters for this kind of thing. Just with nzo holders alone, we have over 12,000 members come weekly to talk about their addiction and how we can get weened of it. Surprisingly the answer was staring in many of our faces. People got cured in a matter of months. Actually this happened at the same time when oil prices went from $147 pbo to around $35. Subsequently we are now seeing an increase in members again.

[Crypto Crude]

The Machine-
first bought nzo after hoschetter was a dead duck [just missed the 15c au entry price] and have lived the oil dream since then, from one drill to the next.

owned about 130,000 at one stage with average buy under 30c au and have sold down over the years to pay for one thing or another [half a boat @ au$1.10 for one]

still own 39,200 and have sort of convinced my wife they should be viewed as a dividend income stream instead of a risky share investment

no need to sell anymore shares and was even toying with buying some more last week, but bought another 200,000 kasbah instead


Hey The Machine...
that is a great story...
Over the years Hochstetter was mentioned many times, I had no idea when Hochstetter was drilled so I looked through historical announcements... Feb 2000...
wow...
yourve held for the best part of a decade...
abit before my time...
Yeee all be faithful...
when I got into shares NZO had already run so I missed the opportunity to invest in this great story, had a wee go on nzoods...wouldnt miss that eah...
great to know that yourve lived the oil dream through each stage of NZO's growth...up from the ground came a bubbling crude...
machine that is... texas tea...
yeeeaaaahhhh hharrgghhhh
:cool:
.^sc


casa del Energia, lol...

[micket]

true story.2000 i had to spend a season apple picking and vine pruning because i done all my dough sleeping in back of waggon. started work on dairy farms, free house no where to spend wages. started buying nogs and nogocs on hype of felix and stayed through tui swapped ocs for heads at good (but no where near best) price.sold half on fall back and got into ppp pre pukeko, bought and converted heap off oppies. was on my way to sell the lot but arsed off my motor sicle broke my leg and missed the top so stuck with them down to 18c and bought another big load on sale of rest of nzo pre od conversion. sold 200000 ppp and bought into cue(thanks sc for going on about it so much) at 9 to 10 c and bought more with 50000 ppp div. so after recent price rises must be getting close to 1 mill bucks nz.thanks sc for cue, dont listen to macdunk. ithink my 1 mill cue will get me another mill bucks in a few years.

[Crypto Crude]

micket...
wow...
you started out picking apples and now yourve got a million...
on track to be a multi millionare...
this is what I like to hear...
yeah yeah yeah...
:cool:
.^sc

[troyvdh]

Micket...well done (its almost to good to be true.....).....anyways....its a different discipline required when it comes to keeping the stuff....you've done very very well making "it" so far.

[Awamoa]

Micket I cant beat your story but this is mine.
I have just looked back on my original purchase into NZOG.
On 14/5/2002 I purchased at 39 cents and still hold.I have made several more puchases between .39 and $1.11 over following years and then excercised NZOD which is still the single biggest share purchase I have made.
Anyway after the coming dividend I expect to have around 50% of my original purchase repaid through dividends over the last 18 months and a nice capital gain on every NZOG share I own.
I also sold PRC for $2.11 and cant remember what I paid for my entitlement but think it was 70 or 90 cents.
It is my intention to sit and take the dividend and use the cash to buy more if the share price drops below the discounted price.If it doesnt well thats too bad.
Over the last couple of years I have made several nibbles into STX hoping it will perform like NZOG.It hasnt happened yet but in this game patience is required.

[Grimy]

Haven't decided as yet, but leaning towards taking the shares.
Although I often do as Casa del Energia said and put my dividends together and buy something totally different, or something I own that's trading at a good price.

Decided I'm taking the money.

[JBmurc]

true story.2000 i had to spend a season apple picking and vine pruning because i done all my dough sleeping in back of waggon. started work on dairy farms, free house no where to spend wages. started buying nogs and nogocs on hype of felix and stayed through tui swapped ocs for heads at good (but no where near best) price.sold half on fall back and got into ppp pre pukeko, bought and converted heap off oppies. was on my way to sell the lot but arsed off my motor sicle broke my leg and missed the top so stuck with them down to 18c and bought another big load on sale of rest of nzo pre od conversion. sold 200000 ppp and bought into cue(thanks sc for going on about it so much) at 9 to 10 c and bought more with 50000 ppp div. so after recent price rises must be getting close to 1 mill bucks nz.thanks sc for cue, dont listen to macdunk. ithink my 1 mill cue will get me another mill bucks in a few years.

Great work so how much personal capital did you put into shares over this time to achieve 1mill value it has in total now
I'm still dreaming of the day I'll have my own 1mill share portfilo(have controlling interest's soon over 2mill AUD)

[micket]

wages around 40k ,cept 65k last 2 years. most of income aftrer tax into shares.but havnt lived too much like a miser. no mortgage or rent is the main thing also free power.no flashy car.but have picked up nice coastal section cheap 15k and preparing to build.are architects worth 60k fees

[Rabbi]

I remember buying 10000 shares at 40 cents prior to the Opito drill around 2001-2. Opito was another big drill and thrill but came up dry and the SP dropped back to 25 cents. I had sold half prior to the drill, but after further evaluation -or should I say intuition- I bought another 20k at 28 cents. The joke was that NOG (as they were called in those days) was out of cash after the Opito drill, and were trying to raise money with an issue at 34 cents which was at a substantial premium to the market price. It might have suted some institutions, who may have topped up or averaged down, but who would buy at a premium?

Anyway the next year (2003) they discovered Tui, to not much fanfare I should say as it ws considered too small to be economic. The Tui field was, in fact, three seperate drills, Tui, Pateke, and ? (can anyone remember). It was only after the third drill that the economies to develop the field looked good and the rest is history.

In my humble opinion there is still plenty of oil out in the Taranaki basin for the finding and more drill and thrill to come. But beware of the downrampers, the naysayers, the doomsday merchants and the fainthearted. You have to have faith to ride out the dusters because there will be more dusters than discoveries.

One day someone is going to drill and find an "elephant" of an oil field out in the Taranaki Basin.
Could it be Hoki?:D

[Billy Boy]

and preparing to build.are architects worth 60k fees

I have had/ still have contact with the building industry....
An old builder once said to me ...
"if you want a complete, exspensive, F**k up, employ an architect."
:D:D:D

Looking around Q,town, I think he's right !!! :D
BB

[notie]

One day someone is going to drill and find an "elephant" of an oil field out in the Taranaki Basin.
Could it be Hoki?:D

Yer, Hoki with nzog's 10% is going to be that elephant.

When are nzog going to truly get into something new and a decent investment. Up until now it has been small stuff and this company trades on the successes of yesterday.....Tui and Kupe were both discovered a long time ago.

Even if hoki came in and that is a big if, then it would be 5 years as a minimum before any development was undertaken. nzog can talk it up all they want, but their small holding in this means they have next to no say in the joint venture

[arjay]

Notie, I almost fell over when I read the first line of your message. Notie the optimist I thought - never. So glad you proved me wrong.

I did well out of Hochstetter - bought a swag of options and sold half for a three-bagger prior to spud. Kept the rest just in case, so came out of it OK. Pity about those north Taranaki hopefulls though - Opito, Opito-sidetrack (wotever became of that?), Felix, Mangatoa. It's out there tho..... just need that first strole of luck. Kashin passed away today so I expect a new elephant to turn up any time now.....

[Mr Tommy]

When are nzog going to truly get into something new and a decent investment. Up until now it has been small stuff and this company trades on the successes of yesterday.....Tui and Kupe were both discovered a long time ago.

Well Notie, thats how theyve got into the NZX 15, they must be doing something right

[the machine]

expect nzo will suffer tomorrow because of pike 1st shipment delays until 2010

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00980438


then rebound after dividend announcement on wed

M

[the machine]

here is some good news

page 20 of awe presentation shows extensive prospects in permit 38483

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00980558

previously little shown and nzo website has nothing really - that should be updated tomorrow one would trust

M

[the machine]

bring on the divvo tomorrow!!!

minimum 5c one trusts

M

[fish]

[QUOTE=the machine;270602]bring on the divvo tomorrow!!!

minimum 5c one trusts

I trust the market will be expecting a minimum of 5 cents-which probably will do nothing for the sp unless the company can show a better use of the remaining cash hoard than keeping it in the bank in us dollars .

Whereas a 10 cent dividend-plus tax credits imo would be a more reasonable return to reflect the risk taken by investors and the success of Tui .

Imo this could waken investors to nzo and get the sp moving .

Do you know what time is the announcement ?

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Could someone please do me a big favour and text me to tell me the amount of the dividend when it's announced (e.g 5cps fully imputed). Unfortunately, I won't be otherwise be able to find out very easily for a while so I would be very grateful. Number is 0210-335-236. Thanks heaps.

[777]

[QUOTE=the machine;270602]bring on the divvo tomorrow!!!

minimum 5c one trusts

I trust the market will be expecting a minimum of 5 cents-which probably will do nothing for the sp unless the company can show a better use of the remaining cash hoard than keeping it in the bank in us dollars .

Whereas a 10 cent dividend-plus tax credits imo would be a more reasonable return to reflect the risk taken by investors and the success of Tui .

Imo this could waken investors to nzo and get the sp moving .

Do you know what time is the announcement ?

Last year the announcement was made at 9.24am.

[brucey09]

5c div record 9/13 pay 10/2

[digger]

26/08/2009
MINE

REL: 0902 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: NZOG takes 40% stake in Albacore permit

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has extended its offshore drilling programme
this summer by entering into a conditional agreement to acquire a 40% stake
in permit PEP 38491, which lies in the northern Taranaki Basin.

PEP 38491 covers an area of 715 sq kms and is approximately 80 km north of
New Plymouth, in water depths of around 95 metres.

PEP 38491 is currently held 90% by Westech, a wholly owned subsidiary of
Energy Corporation of America and 10% by the State-Owned Enterprise, Mighty
River Power (MRP). Westech is the operator.

Subject to regulatory and partner approvals, the new participating interests
will be:
Westech 50%
NZOG 40%
MRP 10%

The permit contains a number of identified prospects and preparations are
already in place to drill one of those prospects, called Albacore.

NZOG will participate at 40% in the drilling of the Albacore-1 exploration
well by the jack-up rig, ENSCO-107. The well is expected to be drilled in
October/November at a total estimated cost of NZ$20-25 million.

Chief Executive David Salisbury says PEP 38491 is a further exciting addition
to NZOG's expanding exploration portfolio.

"Our assessment is that the central northern Taranaki Basin is a very
prospective part of the Taranaki Basin. There are three separate play
fairways within PEP 38491 - a Pliocene Fan and two Mangaa sands - and it
contains half a dozen interesting prospects. The first prospect to be
targeted is Albacore, which contains three separate target zones that may
contain hydrocarbons.

"The Albacore-1 well will target structures recently defined by 3D seismic at
depths of 1400 to 1800 metres, which could not have been mapped if only 2D
data had existed. It is the three dimensional resolution that enables a
degree of stratigraphical and sedimentological dissection that has identified
this as an exciting block.

"Having said that, exploration is always risky. The well will need to be
drilled to determine whether hydrocarbons have been trapped in any of the
identified structures. However, the potential is significant. NZOG's internal
analysis is that Albacore is more likely to contain oil than gas and, if
successful, could support an offshore development similar to Tui."

NZOG now has interests in seven permits in the offshore Taranaki Basin and
one in the Canterbury Basin. NZOG will be participating in the drilling of at
least four wells this summer.
End CA:00183969 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2009-08-26:09:02:38










© Direct Broking Limited 2005.

Now that should make balance happy. Well it does me anyways. It is called grow the company. We now have 4 drills in the next 6 months.

[brucey09]

amend 9/18 record

[Casa del Energia]

26/08/2009
MINE

REL: 0902 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: NZOG takes 40% stake in Albacore permit

....
....
....
End CA:00183969 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2009-08-26:09:02:38


Now that should make balance happy. Well it does me anyways. It is called grow the company. We now have 4 drills in the next 6 months.

Very happy too. Digger, would appreciate an expansion on your views on this - any further comment to make?

[boysy]

slight reserves increase as well from 50.1 mmbl to 50.5 mmbl not significant but a small change never the less

[neopoleII]

ppp paid 3c and has a growing sp
nzo pays 5c and will stagnate.
as for divi reinvestment...... why invest more in a company that doesnt reward its shareholders......... i wonder how many more millions of shares will be allocated to staff this year at massive discounts?
at least we get a 40% shot at a wildcat.........

[da puntzda]

Neopole

I agree with you, to me NZO management are very comfortable and reward themselves with far too many discounted shares.

IMO shareholders would be far better served if:

* PPP and PRC shares were allocated directly to NZO shareholders (what value does a shareholder have by NOG owning these as a middleman?) dam good work though buying PPP when they did.

* NZO took a leaf out of PPP's salary structure and downsized staff by 75%As they would need less staff to remanange what is already managed.

* and focused those staff remaining on using the $200 million raised form the rights issue to focus on growing oil and gas reserves.

disc. former holder

[Nitaa]

ppp paid 3c and has a growing sp
nzo pays 5c and will stagnate.
as for divi reinvestment...... why invest more in a company that doesnt reward its shareholders......... i wonder how many more millions of shares will be allocated to staff this year at massive discounts?
at least we get a 40% shot at a wildcat.........not now it isnt

[neopoleII]

ppp got sold down at 5pm from 2 trades totalling 24000 shares.......... even though 500,000 odd went thru today.
games me thinks

[Unicorn]

ppp paid 3c and has a growing sp
nzo pays 5c and will stagnate.
as for divi reinvestment...... why invest more in a company that doesnt reward its shareholders......... i wonder how many more millions of shares will be allocated to staff this year at massive discounts?
at least we get a 40% shot at a wildcat.........

There is no reason why NZO should be expected to stagnate. This has been an expected quiet year as Tui production tailed off, Kupe and PRC were still to start production, and drilling was prohibitively expensive due to last years oil price spike. Next year there is a lot to look forward to - Kupe and PRC production starting, a fair bit of exploration drilling, and possibly some further investment.

The graphs show that market cap has been increasing rather strongly - NZO is now in the NZX15. Shareholders have been rewarded through very good increases in the value of their investment, and with additional dividends as well.

[neopoleII]

been thinking about the results and the 5cent divi today.........
managment says one divi per year from now on, and yet we have a 40% wildcat drill and several other very promising drills just around the corner, we have kupe just about on stream and pike sooooooooon to be on line.
if albacore comes in.... its not a 10% play but 40% and potential to seriously lift nzo reserves......which makes me worry about hostile takeover of a stagnant NZO sp.
with the rest of the projects coming to head very soon, its a long time to the next end of year results and divis.
next years divi should be a very good one....... it needs to be to get shareholder support if someone tries to raid NZO with all its income streams in full swing.
the trouble is i could see a take over happening and not alot in the way of defence to stop it.
what with a 5cent annual divi which is below bank rates.
the only thing left is capital gain, and that only supports the traders and speculators not the long term investors.
to be honest, nzo should not of paid a divi at all if its less that 10cents, because 5cents is just an insult.
this time next year either the raiders will be happy or the shareholders.
after 5 years as a loyal shareholder, i will plan an exit depending what the board or the raiders plan for or before next august.

[macduffy]

Sorry, Neo.

No such thing as a "loyal shareholder".

We're all in this (or not) for personal gain, not to show "loyalty" to either company or management.

:D

[Unicorn]

the only thing left is capital gain, and that only supports the traders and speculators not the long term investors.


Nonsense. There is nothing to stop an investor selling some shares if they want cash income. In fact if an investor chooses cash dividends in preference to DRP shares, then this is essentially what they are doing.

[neopoleII]

fair enough macduffy,
replace loyal with longterm.......
then take the longterm investor away, and whats left?
a share registry like a roller coaster and no cornerstone/s support.
.......in for the cash, any which way........
perfect for corperate raiding.
what nzo should of done IMHO is give the 10cent divi in anticipation for next years cash influx, which supports the sp and enforces defence of the coming cash wave.

[fish]

fair enough macduffy,
replace loyal with longterm.......
then take the longterm investor away, and whats left?
a share registry like a roller coaster and no cornerstone/s support.
.......in for the cash, any which way........
perfect for corperate raiding.
what nzo should of done IMHO is give the 10cent divi in anticipation for next years cash influx, which supports the sp and enforces defence of the coming cash wave.

Have to confess to selling quite a few today-during the day and another 25k at closing .
My emotional half (my wife ) said time to sell if they are not going to pay a reasonable dividend .
It just seems plain stupid to keep so much in cash in us dollars losing value .Also have not been impressed by prc-in particularly not keeping the market informed .

[Xerof]

Fair enough Fish.... $1.65 is proving a tough nut to crack

I personally am quite happy with 5c divvy - they are still casting about for new investments, so why cough it out only to have to then possibly borrow to fund the 'right' acquisition.

If there's a cash bonanza from Kupe etc over the next 12 months, then I'm sure they'll pay the stated 'reasonable proportion of profits' next year

[digger]

Have to confess to selling quite a few today-during the day and another 25k at closing .
My emotional half (my wife ) said time to sell if they are not going to pay a reasonable dividend .
It just seems plain stupid to keep so much in cash in us dollars losing value .Also have not been impressed by prc-in particularly not keeping the market informed .

Hi Fish,
No need to apologise for selling a few shares. I to thought the div would have been bigger as i often said about 7.5 as bottom. You have turned out to be correct that the company would have been better to have given a 5 cents div way back in feb as by not doing so most got lost in the climbing NZ dollar. This is of coa-rse hind sight and if i were a director back in Feb i would probably done the same thing. All exporters are hurting and some much worse than us.
I do like the the company farming in to the two recent drills not far away--Hoki and albacore and am happy to have a smaller div to get on with the drilling. What pleases me mostly here is that the drills are in NZ where we know if we are part of the drill or just part of the expenses until a find is secured and then we are bouted out. Where PPPV is is a guessing game that could easily fall either way. This Romanian thing is somewhat like PPPV where it is just trust me[directors] and securing a successful drill is not the end of the story.Overseas drills too often end up being the end of the drilling company and the winner is the govt that controls the drill area. So i am happy to spend our money here in NZ.
How much is another TUI worth to find? There are probably another two or 3 out there waiting the drill bit and once found we do not have to worry about the find suddenly being someone elses.
A few years ago i knew NZO would have a slow year betweenTUI full steam and the other two projects. The year has been better than we expected back a few years ago even though we have had the biggest finanical crises since the 1920's. This really means that NZO has done dam well to be where it is today . 2010 will be the beginning of a number of successful years for nzo,so Fish do not sell any more than you have to.
Cheers.

[arjay]

I know that many posters bought into NZO a few years back for 25 - 35c. The latest divvy means half of that outlay has been re-couped in less than 18 months. That's not bad.

Real pleased we've got a few wildcats coming up to generate some of the old excitment.

[Nitaa]

Remember that nzo is wanting to expand and grow. It is very difficult and be irrespensible of the management to dish out too much in divvies and at the same time grow the net worth of the company. The problem with oil companies is when they find the stuff it doesnt last for ever so they have to keep reinvesting to mind more. Its not like a supermarket chain that have set up their infrastructure and know they will get a return for ever and a day.

Dont forget, the No1 problem for any co0mpany to grow is cash flow. No point in squandering what they have as the NZO management need to and obviously are looking well into the future.

[fish]

Hi Fish,
No need to apologise for selling a few shares. I to thought the div would have been bigger as i often said about 7.5 as bottom. You have turned out to be correct that the company would have been better to have given a 5 cents div way back in feb as by not doing so most got lost in the climbing NZ dollar. This is of coa-rse hind sight and if i were a director back in Feb i would probably done the same thing. All exporters are hurting and some much worse than us.
I do like the the company farming in to the two recent drills not far away--Hoki and albacore and am happy to have a smaller div to get on with the drilling. What pleases me mostly here is that the drills are in NZ where we know if we are part of the drill or just part of the expenses until a find is secured and then we are bouted out. Where PPPV is is a guessing game that could easily fall either way. This Romanian thing is somewhat like PPPV where it is just trust me[directors] and securing a successful drill is not the end of the story.Overseas drills too often end up being the end of the drilling company and the winner is the govt that controls the drill area. So i am happy to spend our money here in NZ.
How much is another TUI worth to find? There are probably another two or 3 out there waiting the drill bit and once found we do not have to worry about the find suddenly being someone elses.
A few years ago i knew NZO would have a slow year betweenTUI full steam and the other two projects. The year has been better than we expected back a few years ago even though we have had the biggest finanical crises since the 1920's. This really means that NZO has done dam well to be where it is today . 2010 will be the beginning of a number of successful years for nzo,so Fish do not sell any more than you have to.
Cheers.

Hi digger

I fully agree with your post-nzo has so much potential .
However I borrowed a lot to get into NZO in a big way and dont feel I can rely on nzo to give me the returns-either capital gain in the next few months or a reasonable dividend to pay the interest on my loans .
Final straw was the dividend date not being until october .
I Have the monthly margin loan interest plus a big tax bill to pay this week . I need a more predictable source of income -so bought more shares in several utility companies that pay predictable regular income-all with dividends in september!.

After saying that I have no intention of selling anymore nzo .

[friedegg]

boring ole nzo,no buyers cause everyones off chasing companies that maybe have found oil but really dont know if they own it,at least in nz the politics are more sound

[shasta]

boring ole nzo,no buyers cause everyones off chasing companies that maybe have found oil but really dont know if they own it,at least in nz the politics are more sound

Well NZO has thrown 5c to shareholders to try & ease the pain of there FX losses (which exceed this payment :eek:)

When i first mentioned the FX issues the USD/NZD was @ .57

At the end of the quarter it was around .64, now it's gone even higher

More FX losses coming this quarter, from the inept folk who justify there position with a weak argument "we are not currency speculators".

[the machine]

digger, from what little I have read about romania, I would say that once permits issued than thats it, with no issues like government having a say later on what additional share they get.

romania has already had its shakeout with OMV having to divest some of its molopoly

M

[Nitaa]

Well NZO has thrown 5c to shareholders to try & ease the pain of there FX losses (which exceed this payment :eek:)

When i first mentioned the FX issues the USD/NZD was @ .57

At the end of the quarter it was around .64, now it's gone even higher

More FX losses coming this quarter, from the inept folk who justify there position with a weak argument "we are not currency speculators".Remember nzo made huge gains on this when the nzo was plumetting. Shasta, you cant have it both ways. In essence I believe they have got a good balance of US and NZ currency which to me is the same thing as hedging only cheaper

[Nitaa]

I only litended to it once but when it come to funding Kupe they have a facility to draw around $60 to $70m fot this project. At present they dont need to which makes me think they want to have cash ready in case of other investment opportunities whatever that may be.

ps. I need to listen to it again to read between the lines

[digger]

digger, from what little I have read about romania, I would say that once permits issued than thats it, with no issues like government having a say later on what additional share they get.

romania has already had its shakeout with OMV having to divest some of its molopoly

M

Thanks for that The Machine. Guess the operative word is ONCE and you could probably throw in IF. Still for me i somewhat prefer the bird in the hand stuff so am pleased that NZO seems to be mostly sticking with NZ where we know the rules.

[peterfindlay]

The reaction through this forum, and as reflected in the SP (albeit some recovery today), seems to be a little morbid. Surely the focus now ought to be on imminent production form Kupe (which is on track), and the drilling campaign that is to commence in October. The regular commentary about the Forex gains and losses, and what alternative outcomes could have been achieved, does not appear to recognise one of the likely drivers for holding US$ i.e. that a significant acquisition or investment is likely to be in US$.

I note that the recent update by Andrew Harvey Green of Forsyth Barr (http://www.forbar.co.nz) has resulted in an upgrade of the NZOG. Some of that commentary is shown below:

New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZO)

FY09 Result Review – Expanding Exploration

Operating profit (EBITDAX) was in line with expectations at $85.8m. The main announcement with the result was a further expansion of the exploration portfolio with the acquisition of a 40% stake in the Albacore permit. This means NZO will now be drilling 4 exploration wells in the next 6 months.

What’s changed?

Earnings Impact: FY10 EBITDAX unchanged.

Valuation Impact: Minimal change, $1.92.

Recommendation: Upgraded from an ACCUMULATE to a BUY.

Four well drilling program provides significant upside potential

The acquisition of a 40% stake in the North Taranaki Basin Albacore permit area means NZO will now be drilling four exploration wells over the coming 6 months. Albacore will be the first of the wells drilled in October/November, with the other wells being Hoki and two near Tui wells. We estimate that there is a 60% chance of at least one of these wells being successful and hence we believe that the upside potential for NZO is significantly greater than the downside risk.

FY09 result as expected – no change to FY10 outlook

The FY09 operating profit (EBITAX) came in line with expectations at $85.8m. Whilst this is well below FY08 (-50.7%) that was to be expected as Tui production declined in line with forecasts and oil prices were also lower over FY09 vs FY08.

Our FY10 forecast is largely unchanged with a modest revenue uplift from a higher oil price assumption (+$US5/barrel) offset by an increase in operating costs and royalty expenses.

Investment View

While at this stage we view PRC, PPP and to a lesser extent cash as effectively dormant investments, we believe the potential uplift in value from the four well drilling program outweighs any negatives associated with these investments. We have therefore upgraded our recommendation from ACCUMULATE to BUY.

[neopoleII]

""We have therefore upgraded our recommendation from ACCUMULATE to BUY.""

i totally agree with this statement.

what i worry about is a corprate raider thinking about a taker over of nzo.
especially if 1 or more of the next 4 drills comes in, and a sp hanging around the $1.60s.
the lack of a bigger divi than posted, and the next one a year away, and lots of fruit coming to bear in the next few months, ....... would long term holders sell into a stand in the market?
or keep waiting for that profitable divi?

cash in bank, kupe income, pike sale, could really help fund a take over, albacore could just make it happen.

i think NZO is a magic company, with massive potential, but it seems to me that a raider could just snatch the golden egg just as things are really coming together.
which is why i thought a big divi would of helped long term investors hold on to their shares """if""" someone tried to go for NZO.

maybe im just fooling myself in thinking nzo could be taken over...........

with the long term investment i have in NZO i would hate to see it taken over and lose my future income stream.

[blackcap]

Why the obsession with dividends????

They are tax ineffective and really are a waste of time for shareholders.

[Unicorn]

what i worry about is a corprate raider thinking about a taker over of nzo.
especially if 1 or more of the next 4 drills comes in, and a sp hanging around the $1.60s.

Do you really think that the share price will be hanging around the $1.60s if one of the 4 drills comes in? Do you think the share price will stay at current levels as drilling approaches? Do you think a takeover at anything like $1.60 would have any chance? If you do, then you should not be invested in this company.

NZO earned about 13 cents a share last year. That excludes a few things like PPP and PRC revaluations and shorter time to Kupe and Pike cashflows, so the underlying increase in value was more than that. Not a bad return in a year of major upheaval, and in what was always going to be an in between year for NZO.

How much of the income they choose to hand out in dividends does not affect how much the company is earning for its shareholders. The market might be slower to recognise the success, because there are a few people who see cash dividends as being the only tangible reward and some who sees retained earnings as carrying a degree of risk. But eventually the increased value will be reflected in the share price.

[the machine]

interesting news on the web:


NZOG reaches for Taranaki permit
(Friday, 28 August 2009)


NEW Zealand Oil & Gas has applied for another offshore Taranaki exploration lease, this time immediately north of the licence containing the promising Albacore prospect that will be drilled this spring.
Full Story...

M

[neopoleII]

""Do you really think that the share price will be hanging around the $1.60s if one of the 4 drills comes in? ""

past history shows that when they drilled tui the sp was as high and higher than now....
since then oil and cash has been flowing and the sp is where??

""Do you think a takeover at anything like $1.60 would have any chance?""
of course not, but this is the level the sp is now and is a starting point.

""How much of the income they choose to hand out in dividends does not affect how much the company is earning for its shareholders.""
very true, but those earning are sitting idle waiting for an opertunity, may it be an acquistion or used against NZO in a take over........ just like the cash sitting in PPPs accounts earlier, and the talk of take over, once a good divi was offered the sp moved up, and added defence to any takeover action.

""But eventually the increased value will be reflected in the share price.""
also true..... but who sees it first, the market,which is driven by traders, or a raider who sees a chance to grab an undervalued company with a big cash stream about to come on line?

2 years ago with no income the sp was as it is now, but now the coffers are full of cash.

maybe im missing something.........

what ever happens, i'll be around to see what happens.

[Unicorn]

Do you really think that the share price will be hanging around the $1.60s if one of the 4 drills comes in? ""

past history shows that when they drilled tui the sp was as high and higher than now....
since then oil and cash has been flowing and the sp is where??
The (adjusted) NZO share price was about 105c 2 years ago (average over 6 months). Even after a global meltdown and a fall in the price of oil, the share price is now around 160c. About a 50% return in two years. Around the time Tui was found and Pike looked like it might contribute in the near term, the share price spiked to about 120c (adjusted) - somewhat less than 160c.

""Do you think a takeover at anything like $1.60 would have any chance?""
of course not, but this is the level the sp is now and is a starting point.
The current share price is largely irrelevant in terms of a takeover. Look what happened to PPP (moved from 25c to 45c) when NZO bought just 15% while confidence was low. Think what would be required to pick up 50% of NZO now that confidence is improved.

""How much of the income they choose to hand out in dividends does not affect how much the company is earning for its shareholders.""
very true, but those earning are sitting idle waiting for an opertunity, may it be an acquistion or used against NZO in a take over........ just like the cash sitting in PPPs accounts earlier, and the talk of take over, once a good divi was offered the sp moved up, and added defence to any takeover action.
That is quite contrary to the facts. PPP share price was static at around 25c until December 2008, when NZO entered the market at about 35c. It then rose to about 45c by the start of February. From February thru May it was largely between 35c and 40c. The dividend was announced on 27 April, there was a brief increase in share price, then it fell back to the previous range. Things started happening in June, following announcements regarding the apparent success of the Vietnam drill. The NZO offer clearly impacted PPP share price, as did the Vietnam deal. The dividend announcement did not have any long term impact on the share price.

""But eventually the increased value will be reflected in the share price.""
also true..... but who sees it first, the market,which is driven by traders, or a raider who sees a chance to grab an undervalued company with a big cash stream about to come on line?
I don't see that a raider would pick up much of NZO very cheaply. It is not something I am worried about.

2 years ago with no income the sp was as it is now, but now the coffers are full of cash.
That is just completely wrong.

maybe im missing something.........
A share price chart would probably help you.

what ever happens, i'll be around to see what happens.[/QUOTE]

[fish]

Why the obsession with dividends????

They are tax ineffective and really are a waste of time for shareholders.

That statement will apply for many companies and shareholders but certainly not all -I do believe a bigger dividend would most likely have pushed the shareprice up .
A low dividend will result in those needing more income selling .
The market sp depends on so many other factors that you cannot rely on it increasing in the short term-say in the order of 1 year if money is retained .
As for tax inefficient I am not sure if this applies in current nzo cash situation .
I may be wrong here but surely The company will pay company tax at 30% . This will enable full tax credits to apply to any dividend as long as the dividend is less than the equivalent tax credits held .
Certainly keeping 170 million or more in cash for over a year is not financially efficient . Surely future projects are better funded by ongoing income-in the case of the next 10 year s-kupe should produce predictable income for this purpose

[fish]

A further point that in my view merits debate is that as the dividend can be taken as shares at a 2.5 % discount I would suspect the majority of shares in the company will opt for this . Hence the cost to the company will be very small-probably less than 10% of the annual profit.

A bigger discount -say 5% would probably result in about 90 % shares opting for more shares instead of cash . Therefore if the dividend was increased from 5 to 10 cents the company would actually spend less on the dividend and more tax credits could be handed out .

Would this be a win for everybody?-there is probably something I have missed here !

[boysy]

Looks as though the drilling around tui could be much greater than initially thought this release suggests up to 5 wells . This article of crown minerals


http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2008/awe-plans-major-development-of-wider-tui-field

AWE plans major development of wider Tui field
29 August 2008, Source: AWE and Lindsay Clark - Australian Worldwide Exploration is planning a major expansion of the Tui oil field next year.

The company has announced in a presentation to investors that it plans to accelerate the next phase of drilling in its Taranaki permits in a 6 to 8 well campaign over nine months starting in early 2009.

The campaign, costing an estimated A$300 million, would be a mixture of exploration appraisal and development wells. Timing of the drilling was contingent on rig contracting.

The campaign will focus mainly on the Tui field in the subtle low-relief Kapuni F sands within 1-20 km from the eastern and southern edges of the main Tui oil pool.

As many as four appraisal wells may be drilled in the area plus a previously announced third horizontal development well Tui-4H into the Tui pool.

In a presentation outlining it’s 2008-10 exploration programme, AWE provides a map showing four potential reservoir areas to the south and east of the Tui pool. They are named as Kahu Crest, Kahu Stratigraphic, Tui North East and Tui South East (which are shown on the map as linked together by a narrow “waist”) and Tui South West.

The map shows two of the wells would be drilled from near where the two present Tui wellheads (Tui-3H and Tui-4H) are sited. One of the new wells (Tui-5H) would go into the Tui South West pool, a 2-3 km wide potential reservoir extension to the main pool. The Tui-4H would be drilled to the north west part of the main Tui pool.

Three other wells would be drilled from a site six kilometres to the east to test three other potential reservoirs called Tui NE, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic.

One of the presentation graphics has marked out an undersea terminal for a gas export line from the Tui field to the Maui gas field which lies less than 20 km from Tui.

Garry Marsden, corporate development manager for AWE in Sydney when questioned about this gas export line, would only say that there had been recent newspaper reports of discussions between AWE and the Maui Partners about linking pipeline networks.

Some associated gas produced with the Tui oil is currently used for processing on board the Tui FPSO vessel Umaroa and the remainder flared.

AWE said it also planned during its Taranaki campaign to drill an exploration well Hoki-1 into the Hoki prospect in PEP 38401 where the company has located a substantial closure.

Two other exploration wells are named on the drilling schedule for the second half of 2009.

Mr Marsden said the Malvern-1 was scheduled for PEP 38524 in offshore south Taranaki and the Bahamas-1 well shown on the list was not yet allocated to a permit area.

AWE reported its profit for the year ended 30 June 2008 was A$264 million, a 647% rise on the 2007 year profit of A$35.4 million.

Sales revenue rose to A$821.5 million, up 470% from the previous year’s A$144 million.

AWE said the significant revenue increases followed the “exceptional initial performance of the Tui oil fields”.

The company also reported that it had paid New Zealand income tax of $131.2 million in the 2007-08 year plus a New Zealand royalty, an accounting profits tax, of $73.8 million.

[OutToLunch]

From the Stuff-up website

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2815966/Oil-rigs-to-spud-in-off-Taranaki

Oil and gas exploration activity will increase in Taranaki this summer, with two rigs working offshore.
The biggest rig will be the semi-submersible Kan Tan IV, which is due off Taranaki in a few weeks to begin operating in waters southwest of the region.
And another, the jack-up rig Ensco 107, will be drilling in the northern section of the Taranaki Basin off Awakino.
The first well to the west will be Hoki-1, 150km from New Plymouth, which will be spudded in October. After that the Kan Tan IV will drill at least two prospects near the existing Tui oilfield followed by another exploration well called Tuatara-1.
The first northern offshore well will be Albacore-1, an exploration well to be drilled by the Ensco-107 in water depths of about 95 metres, 80km north of New Plymouth.
The operator will be United States firm Westech, which holds 50 per cent, with the other shareholders being listed New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG) with 40 per cent and state-owned Mighty River Power with 10 per cent.
The well will also be spudded in October at a total estimated cost of NZ$20 million to $25m.
NZOG says an assessment of the central northern Taranaki Basin is that is very prospective. The first prospect to be targeted will be Albacore, which contains three separate target zones that may contain hydrocarbons.
NZOG's shares closed Friday at 162, up 3 cents.

[the machine]

From the Stuff-up website

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2815966/Oil-rigs-to-spud-in-off-Taranaki

Oil and gas exploration activity will increase in Taranaki this summer, with two rigs working offshore.
The biggest rig will be the semi-submersible Kan Tan IV, which is due off Taranaki in a few weeks to begin operating in waters southwest of the region.
And another, the jack-up rig Ensco 107, will be drilling in the northern section of the Taranaki Basin off Awakino.
The first well to the west will be Hoki-1, 150km from New Plymouth, which will be spudded in October. After that the Kan Tan IV will drill at least two prospects near the existing Tui oilfield followed by another exploration well called Tuatara-1.
The first northern offshore well will be Albacore-1, an exploration well to be drilled by the Ensco-107 in water depths of about 95 metres, 80km north of New Plymouth.
The operator will be United States firm Westech, which holds 50 per cent, with the other shareholders being listed New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG) with 40 per cent and state-owned Mighty River Power with 10 per cent.
The well will also be spudded in October at a total estimated cost of NZ$20 million to $25m.
NZOG says an assessment of the central northern Taranaki Basin is that is very prospective. The first prospect to be targeted will be Albacore, which contains three separate target zones that may contain hydrocarbons.
NZOG's shares closed Friday at 162, up 3 cents.

nothing like good press to help the sp along [not]

nzo down 5c au today



M

[Nitaa]

nothing like good press to help the sp along [not]

nzo down 5c au today



MNZO on ASX closed on$130.5 which is the same as $1.60 on the NZX. Virtually nothing in it.

[blackcap]

A further point that in my view merits debate is that as the dividend can be taken as shares at a 2.5 % discount I would suspect the majority of shares in the company will opt for this . Hence the cost to the company will be very small-probably less than 10% of the annual profit.

A bigger discount -say 5% would probably result in about 90 % shares opting for more shares instead of cash . Therefore if the dividend was increased from 5 to 10 cents the company would actually spend less on the dividend and more tax credits could be handed out .

Would this be a win for everybody?-there is probably something I have missed here !


Yep- the dividend taken as a share is still subject to income tax and as such the company will need to attach imputation credits to be used by the shareholders.
Anyway these shares instead of divs that NZ offer are a rort. Usually the discount is taken from the 5 days cum div. So usually it is better getting the net cash div and buying new shares ex dividend.

[digger]

Yep- the dividend taken as a share is still subject to income tax and as such the company will need to attach imputation credits to be used by the shareholders.
Anyway these shares instead of divs that NZ offer are a rort. Usually the discount is taken from the 5 days cum div. So usually it is better getting the net cash div and buying new shares ex dividend.

Blackcap who would take up the offer if it were 5 days come dividend? That would be like forgoing the dividend entirely. If anything it should be 5% for the 5 days post dividend. I will be taking the div in shares but may not next year if it is still in the miserly range of 2.5%

[Chris Roberts]

The Dividend Reinvestment Plan states that the additional shares are calculated based on the weighted average sale price for NZOG shares sold on the NZX on each of the first five business days immediately following the record date.

The 2.5% discount has been offered on the basis of advice received by the Board that 2.5% is the most common discount offered for DRP's in NZ.

[fabs]

In my experience the share price is generally affected 5 days before and after the record date, if it changes after the date you receive payment, up or down, has nothing to do with the dividend.
Regards the 2.5% discount, there is more than an even chance that you come out ahead, taking also into account B/ Fees.
You can take it or opt for cash, fair allround imo.

[Nitaa]

SKC implemented this concept in the last few years as well. For them it more more important to encourage reinvestment compared to nzo. SKC had a lot od dent to equity ratio (although improved recently) so it was a no brainer for them.

Similar but no so important for nzo to have the funds reinvested. Obviously the more reinvested the more leverage and opprtunity nzo will have.

overall its a very smart ploy and good for all parties.

[LJB]

Dividend reinvestment plans are great for small investors who don't do much trading because:
a) they don't pay brokerage for new shares.
b) it enforces the discipline of reinvesting back in the market instead of squandered the cash on beer, groceries and Pumpkin Patch childrens clothing (assuming that one doesn't rely on dividends to pay for beer and groceries in first place).

All the dividend reinvestment schemes I am subscribed to seem perfectly fair and the NZO scheme appears no different.

[the machine]

this is rather amazing, my two biggest stock investments nzo & kas are giving presentations here in perth - today being nzo @ the good oil conference and tomorrow kas at the africa down under conference.

notice the nzo presentation includes more detail on romania.

M

[winner69]

Over the years you guys have raved on about Gordon Ward - mostly good even though sometimes loudmouthing him

I had built up a picture in my mind of what he looked life in real life - something along the lines of the hardened old oil men who stopped the world when they made a prononuncement

There was a photo of Gordon in the paper the other day .... looked nothing like I imagined .... almost a babe in arms relative to what i thought .... and not what I envisioned an oil guru to look like at all

But then the world has changed a lot over the years

[arjay]

Over the years you guys have raved on about Gordon Ward - mostly good even though sometimes loudmouthing him

I had built up a picture in my mind of what he looked life in real life - something along the lines of the hardened old oil men who stopped the world when they made a prononuncement

There was a photo of Gordon in the paper the other day .... looked nothing like I imagined .... almost a babe in arms relative to what i thought .... and not what I envisioned an oil guru to look like at all

But then the world has changed a lot over the years


Oil guru? - I thought Gordon Ward is a coal man.

[winner69]

arjay - you are right

You guys must have been raving about Radford and somehow I associated him with Ward. Shows you how much I know about NZO then ... and how dumb

Apologies to Ward

Both NZO and PRC have true leaders then .... persona that fits their roles

[winner69]

Guys ... no more moans about communication ... they are the BEST


New Zealand’s top online business communicator named
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-zealand-s-top-online-business-communicator-named-109885

[digger]

Guys ... no more moans about communication ... they are the BEST


New Zealand’s top online business communicator named
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-zealand-s-top-online-business-communicator-named-109885


Well done NZO. Would have to agree that NZO is a top communicator especially given its an oilers.Compare this with CUE which when they have a cash issue will not even say in advance if the top holders would support it. NZO also take a proactive interest in what we are saying here on sharetrader and that is even after some posters comments do not warrant a reply and are deliberately negative.
Proud to be a holder in nzo.

[Hoop]

Guys ... no more moans about communication ... they are the BEST


New Zealand’s top online business communicator named
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-zealand-s-top-online-business-communicator-named-109885


The outfit that did the survey (Wired Internet Group) (http://wired.co.nz/Default.asp) hasn't got it on their own website yet..tich tich tich ;)
However their Best investor website award for 2008 survey is there.

[Nitaa]

Guys ... no more moans about communication ... they are the BEST


New Zealand’s top online business communicator named
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-zealand-s-top-online-business-communicator-named-109885Kudos to nzo after getting a bagging in the past...me included. Keep up the good work Chris and the team. Investors are a fickle bunch and will turn on you in a heart beat so don't rest on your laurels.

Well done

[patrick]

Could the Pr team whip down to the Blackball working mens club?

[Paddie]

Guys ... no more moans about communication ... they are the BEST


New Zealand’s top online business communicator named
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-zealand-s-top-online-business-communicator-named-109885

Outstanding!

Paddie

[shasta]

Outstanding!

Paddie

Or it doesn't say much about the other 49 companies...:confused:

Contact Energy wasn't going to win it, nor Telecom once there CEO's remuneration was made public!

[friedegg]

how does the distribution of shares work instead of cash when it comes to the credits?last year my dividends went in as income on my tax assesment but the imputation credits more than covered my tax cause its at a 33% rate and i only earned enough to pay 20%,im thinking if you take the shares instead what happens?do you only get the same amount of shares as the 5 cent divy would buy and still get the credits which can offset your liable tax?can you just sell those shares at a later date and therefore not class it as income,or is it the same tax wise no matter what you choose?

[COLIN]

is it the same tax wise no matter what you choose?

The answer simply is........Yes.
And any subsequent sale of shares does not change anything, taxwise.

[sideline]

how does the distribution of shares work instead of cash when it comes to the credits?last year my dividends went in as income on my tax assesment but the imputation credits more than covered my tax cause its at a 33% rate and i only earned enough to pay 20%,im thinking if you take the shares instead what happens?do you only get the same amount of shares as the 5 cent divy would buy and still get the credits which can offset your liable tax?can you just sell those shares at a later date and therefore not class it as income,or is it the same tax wise no matter what you choose?

friedegg,
It is exactly as if you had received the cash and then gone to the market and bought shares with it (albeit
at a discount of 2.5% and no brokerage). You will still be credited the imputation credits and this time
there will also be some resident withholding tax (RWT) paid by the company on your behalf.
If the imputation credits are in excess of your tax liability then you can carry the excess forward to future
years and claim the RWT back from the IRD in your tax return. Details as per announcement:

The amount per security is calculated at $0.05139552. <--- the official dividend of which:

Resident withholding tax is calculated at $0.00139552. <--- this goes to IRD from above, claim it back!
Net payout or converted to new shares $0.05000000 <--- what you get in the hand

Imputation credits are calculated at $0.02322974. <--- company tax paid, additional to top amount

So the imputation credits alone work out at just over 31% of gross income received,
should more than cover your tax liability if you still are in the 20% bracket!

[Crypto Crude]

Last Thursday David Salisbury spoke at Canterbury University about technology in the oil and gas sector and he spent some time talking about the TUI oil fields, and Romania...
I was so gutted because I couldnt go, I had work...
But heres a very quick summary of what a friend told me...

This summer in the up and coming Tui drilling program, the seismics in the south (where the JV will be targeting) are similar to the North where production wells are flowing oil, they show the same structures and look encouraging for further expansion of this field......

David Salisbury has spent good time in Romania...
expect some activity in the region in the medium term...
I think this expanison is a positive...

on another note....
NZO is a great stock...
this up and coming drilling program offers a risk profile that we dream of, one that if we look around the oil and gas sector we rarely find...it is that of low downside, big upside to the stock... NZO had it a few years back with the drilling of Hector and TUI when I came back for a nibble at the options... this sort of risk return is back...


big upside is in the drilling results...
low downside is protected by NZO's cash backing, tui production, and kupe...
:cool:
.^sc

[gbeenz]

Last Thursday David Salisbury spoke at Canterbury University about technology in the oil and gas sector and he spent some time talking about the TUI oil fields, and Romania...
I was so gutted because I couldnt go, I had work...
But heres a very quick summary of what a friend told me...

This summer in the up and coming Tui drilling program, the seismics in the south (where the JV will be targeting) are similar to the North where production wells are flowing oil, they show the same structures and look encouraging for further expansion of this field......

David Salisbury has spent good time in Romania...
expect some activity in the region in the medium term...
I think this expanison is a positive...

on another note....
NZO is a great stock...
this up and coming drilling program offers a risk profile that we dream of, one that if we look around the oil and gas sector we rarely find...it is that of low downside, big upside to the stock... NZO had it a few years back with the drilling of Hector and TUI when I came back for a nibble at the options... this sort of risk return is back...


big upside is in the drilling results...
low downside is protected by NZO's cash backing, tui production, and kupe...
:cool:
.^sc
Check out the NZO Website for the pdf of the Hopkins Memorial Lecture

[blockhead]

Hell you would have to be into this share wouldnt you ??



New Zealand Oil and Gas' share price could rally by half if four planned well explorations succeed, says Forsyth Barr, but another analyst thinks the boost will be higher.

NZOG plans to drill the Albacore oil prospect over October and November, and the Hoki prospect in December.

The two prospects off Taranaki were "pure exploration wells" but two other drillings to expand the Tui oilfield had a greater chance of success, Forsyth Barr said.

"If all wells are successful, we believe the potential share price rally could be in the order of 50 per cent but if all are failures, the valuation downside is only around -5 per cent."

The downside risk of the exploration wells was 8 cents a share but their upside potential was $1.03 per share, it said.

Forsyth Barr said NZOG represented an attractive opportunity.

"If all wells are unsuccessful, then our valuation will only fall -4 per cent, but if either Hoki or Albacore are successful then our valuation will immediately increase approximately 25 per cent and we would expect the share price to do likewise."

The chance of at least one of the four wells succeeding was about 60 per cent.

McDouall Stuart analyst John Kidd said the share price rally would be about $2 if all four wells succeeded, although this was unlikely.

"The odds of drilling in New Zealand are not that great. You'd be hopeful that one of the four would come in. Anything better than that would be a bonus."

Mr Kidd forecast in July another Tui-sized field would be worth at least 50 cents a share for NZOG. Another find in the Tui area would substantially benefit from drawing on Tui's existing production facilities, he said.

The potential of an exploration was determined by the level of equity held, the difficulty of developing a field and its liquid-gas mix with liquids being more valuable than gas, he said.

NZOG recently bought a 40 per cent stake in the Albacore prospect.

[Casa del Energia]

Hell you would have to be into this share wouldnt you ??

New Zealand Oil and Gas' share price could rally by half if four planned well explorations succeed, says Forsyth Barr, but another analyst thinks the boost will be higher.
.............................
NZOG recently bought a 40 per cent stake in the Albacore prospect.

The sp picked up 5c so far - I assume it is because of the above article. I find it a little disappointing that so many need to wait for what is blatantly obvious to be written in print.
(Also disappointing because I planned to pick up more before it rallied.)

[friedegg]

theres also the fact it goes ex divi on friday,i tried to sell my lot the day of the annual result release but only managed to get rid of about 40000 and left the rest to get rid of at 1.65 but it never happened so i rung the broker this morning to pull my sell order cause i may as well wait for the divvy now

[blockhead]

Blockhead decided on Friday PRC was going nowhere in the meantime so bailed out of them @ 98c and topped up my NZO supplies @ 1.62, more likely upside in NZO than PRC for the next few months.
Will reasess PRC again in a month or two, in the meantime will eagerly await NZO's capture of a large elephant !!

[LJB]

Blockhead decided on Friday PRC was going nowhere in the meantime so bailed out of them @ 98c and topped up my NZO supplies @ 1.62, more likely upside in NZO than PRC for the next few months.
Will reasess PRC again in a month or two, in the meantime will eagerly await NZO's capture of a large elephant !!

....or even a fossilized Brontosaurus.

[Casa del Energia]

Blockhead decided on Friday PRC was going nowhere in the meantime so bailed out of them @ 98c and topped up my NZO supplies @ 1.62, more likely upside in NZO than PRC for the next few months.
Will reasess PRC again in a month or two, in the meantime will eagerly await NZO's capture of a large elephant !!

CDE should have done the same, 98c would still be a 10c profit - and it looks like PRC will doldrum for maybe months, meanwhile NZO is just waiting for an excuse to take off.

[OutToLunch]

I presume these guys are spruiking AWE -- haven't time to look further into it... but geez do you reckon they used to work for the Reader's Digest PR dept? Talk about a bunch of gasbags...

EDIT -- apologies for the excessive length of this!

----------


Investors: Here's how YOU could make
223% to 706% gains from the...


'Saudi of the
Deep South'


Studies reveal there could be 10 billion barrels of oil of the coast of New Zealand At current prices, that's $670 billion in untapped crude

And one tiny Aussie company will use a
revolutionary submersible drill to find it...


Drilling begins in November. Read on and stake
your claim in the biggest oil story of 2010

Dear Reader,

"Saudi-sized structures, they are that big."

https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/8.1.340.0/themes/base/clear.gif That's GNS Science's David Darby's take on the oil reserves contained deep off the coast of New Zealand's Taranaki Basin.

"The deepwater frontiers of New Zealand beckon," says Darby.

He estimates up to 10 billion barrels of oil could be recovered.

That's more oil than Norway, Oman, India, Indonesia and the United Kingdom.

Of course, this oil has to be found first. And one tiny Australian company - stock selling for just $2.57 on the ASX - is leading the pack by a country mile.

This could be the best investment you ever make....


Drilling begins November 2009...
'Saudi of the Deep South '

If you own just one Australian energy stock, make it this...

50km off the coast of New Zealand, in water depth of about 120m, a tremendous new source of oil has been discovered...

And one Sydney-based company has already found and obtained the rights to drill for more than 55 million barrels.

It's obtained the use of a revolutionary new semi-submersible rig to extract the oil.

This drilling starts in November this year.

This story has come right out of leftfield.

Right now it's getting almost ZERO press coverage. But it won't stay that way for long...

If you're an investor looking to get in right at the bottom of what could be the biggest growth stock story of 2010, now is the time to act...


How Much Do You Stand to Make?

As you probably know, many of the world biggest and oldest oil fields have already peaked or are nearing peak production.

Right now - and in the coming months and years - the BIG money in oil will come from finds made in new or previously inaccessible areas.

If you can get advance warning of a company that a) has found a sizeable and previously unknown oil deposit and has the rights to pump the oil... then you stand to make great deal of money.

How much?

It's hard to estimate. Every oil find is different.

Take Heritage Oil...

The Financial Times got wind that this explorer had found a massive field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Shares shot up 25% in a day... and have risen 223% since February.

Or Givot Olam Oil Exploration...

This Israeli company struck oil at a site near Rosh Ha'ayin... and shares jumped immediately by 32% in a matter of hours...

Or Irish explorer Petrel Resources...

In 2003 Petrel was one of the first companies in the world to get drilling rights in post-Saddam Iraq. Shares steadily climbed an astounding 706% in just 15 months.

These are 'outside-the-norm' finds... and outsized gains for investors who get ahead of the rest on the developing story.

These kinds of stories will characterise the energy landscape for the next 10 years and more - and if you're an investor with speculative capital you're willing to put on the line, they're stories YOU will want to hear about.

I reckon I've found such a story for you: virtually on your front doorstep.

One that could easily outshine anything you may have heard about or profited from this millennium.

But you need to act fast on this.

At the moment, the Taranaki basin is still massively under-explored by world standards. Only a total of about 400 wells have been drilled so far, compared with the tens of thousands that had been drilled in the similar-sized British portion of the North Sea.

"Greater Taranaki has the characteristics of world-class petroleum systems around the globe," says Darby.

And this small explorer whose shares you can buy for $2.57 has a 42% stake in the area's largest oil field!

Intrigued?

I'll give you more analysis on the tiny Australian stock that's about to unleash the 'Saudi of the South' in just a moment.

First, though...


I'll Introduce Myself...

My name is Dan Denning.

I'm Head Analyst at an Australian investment advisory called Diggers and Drillers.

I've been in the strategic investment game a while now. I thought I'd seen everything. But while I saw this financial crisis coming, I really had no idea it would get this bad.

A good chunk of the world's banks have been badly - perhaps permanently - damaged by the global financial crisis.

And like it or not, the governments of the world have decided to step in and give them bailouts.

It's hard enough to predict the markets at the best of times.

But with governments launching new harebrained schemes every other day, and more nasty surprises potentially on the horizon, it's tougher than ever.

But there's one thing you can know with absolute certainty:


The Price of Oil - Eventually - MUST
Resume its Upward Trend

We're at a crucial crossroads for oil prices.

When oil went below US$40, dozens of projects around the world were shelved, many of them for good. The result is a shortfall in energy exploration now that could lead to an energy crunch in the very near future.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) - a leading advisor to international energy companies - has recently pointed out that the 2008 oil price crash led to the cancellation of numerous oil projects. The result is that the world will find and produce a lot less oil than it expected just 18 months ago.

CERA estimates that 52% of the potential net growth in liquids production capacity from 2009 to 2014 is at risk of deferment or cancellation.

This represents about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbd from 2009 to 2014.

That means that nearly half the new oil supply that markets expected just a year ago will no longer be available!

Take the Athabasca Tar Sands of Western Canada. The International Energy Agency estimated last year that the Canadian oil sands would account for nearly 70% of the increase in nonconventional oil production between 2009 and 2030.

Not anymore.

With the price of oil where it has been, investment has been cut way back.

Already, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers has revised its forecast for investment three times. It's cut it from $20 billion to $10 billion currently.

It begs the question: Where will the oil we need come from?

These swing producers, like the Canadian oil sands, can't stop and start very easily. They take time. And these swing producers need a higher oil price to entice them to invest in new projects.

That's bad news. The global economy will need that oil when it recovers.

And Australia needs it more than most.

Take a look at this chart...


https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/8.1.340.0/themes/base/clear.gif


How will we make up the shortfall
when oil becomes even scarcer?

Australia's oil production peaked in 2000 and has fallen o a cliff ever since.

Australian consumption now more than doubles our production.

For many years, Australia was a net exporter of oil. For this reason, we have not had to build a strategic reserve, other than account for products held at refineries, which the Federal Government, through the IEA, would control during times of serious supply disruptions.

This is a mind-blowing mistake.

"On top of this," the Independent reports, "there is the problem of chronic underinvestment by oil producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an 'oil crunch' within the next five years."

Here's what this means...


Power Shifts to Producers

Take a look at the chart below...


https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/8.1.340.0/themes/base/clear.gif

Australia's annual oil import bill is predicted to soar from just under $4 billion now to more than $20 billion by 2015.

But will we find anyone willing to sell it to us?


Australia's Oil Endgame

Australia now finds itself in a desperate position.

Its own oil production is falling. It must compete for oil with mega-buyers like the U.S. and China. And that assumes the oil will be there for the buying.

Don't be so sure...

According to a recent article in Britain's Independent,

"The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production."

The report quotes Dr. Faith Birol, the chief economist at the same IEA I mentioned above. She told the Independent that, "global production is likely to peakin about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had expected."

The IEA provided a detailed assessment of 800 major world oil fields.

Those fields account for more than 75% of the world's proven oil reserves.

The IEA concludes that that production at most of the biggest fields has already peaked and that, "the rate of decline in oil production is running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago."

You see, the IEA concludes that the market power of a very small number of oil producing countries with large oil reserves is about to get much greater. They have the largest reserves. As global production falls, the biggest players become even more important.

Australia is not one of those players.

Historically, the countries that produced a lot of oil - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Mexico, Venezuela - haven't used much oil.

That's changing - fast.

As these countries have moved into the 21st century, so have their oil needs.

The chart above shows that net oil exports from the world's top 20 exporting countries have been trending downwards since mid-2005.


Those Who Have the Oil Have
Seen the Writing on the Wall

They figure in a world where oil is getting harder to come by, it may just be a good idea to hold onto your reserves instead of sell them.

The IEA now estimates that oil production from existing fields will decline by 6.7% a year. In 2007, it estimated production at the major fields would decline by just 3.7% a year.

This raises a critical question...

Could oil production fall even quicker than the IEA is now expecting?

I think the answer is "yes."

But one fact is clear:

Australia will be one of the first countries hit hard as big producers start producing and selling less oil. That's not me talking. It's straight from the mouth of Kjell Aleklett, a physicist from Uppsala University in Sweden.

He told the Sydney Morning Herald recently that Australia's relatively underdeveloped public transport system leaves the country more vulnerable to a downturn in energy production. "Australia is very sensitive to such developments. Much of your industry and transit is dependent on oil, and supplies will decline."

He also warned a Senate committee that the International Energy Agency had wildly overestimated oil production, lulling nations such as Australia into a false sense of security. Rather than oil production rising by 20% by 2030, he says production is likely to fall 11%.

Will the Government wake up and act?

NO WAY!


Canberra Won't Save Us

Canberra has no policy in place to deal with what's about to happen.

The assumption is that there is enough oil for the long term... that Australia will find its own new sources... that new sources of energy will fill the gap... that there will always be someone willing to sell us a barrel of their oil when we need it.

Those assumptions are fairytales.

You might have heard people say the world is running out of oil. It isn't. There will be oil for decades to come. But 'easy' and 'cheap' oil is going to way of the dodo.

Australia must create a national energy policy that takes this into account. It has not done so. It's not helping oil companies find alternatives to the tapped-out Bass Straight.

Nor has Australia researched steps for instituting national programs researching liquid fuels to replace petroleum. There is no policy of energy conservation... no programme to make our farming techniques less reliant on oil... no means of protecting what energy assets we do have from foreign takeover.

As investors, consumers and citizens, we're on our own.

If we're really lucky, Australians can learn to live with less oil. Things will change. Australian economic affairs will eventually reorganize at a lower scale of transport, activity, governance, civility, and economy - level where this is simply less oil available for our existing way of life.

But every week that passes where we fail to recognize the nature of our predicament thrusts us further into the uncharted territory of hardship.

Here's the thing...

While this is a frightening prospect with major societal and economic implications, it's also one with significant potential for profit...


The Trade of the Century

Pretty soon, normal supply and demand factors will assert themselves in the oil market... sending oil back to triple figures not in years... but months or even weeks.

I'm not talking about another rally above $100.

I'm talking about a permanent, sustained new crisis that will make the petro-busts of the 1970s... even the last two years... look small in comparison.

Right now, oil prices are still dragging well below the trend line... so the looming supply problem is no longer an issue. Even as it quietly becomes more urgent.

As an investor, right there is your opportunity.

If you're savvy enough to see this now - when most investors are still spooked and energy stocks are dirt cheap - you stand to make a great deal of money from when the market wakes up and sees what's coming.

I've researched several ways for you to play 'Australia's Oil Endgame' for profits.

The "Saudi of the South" recommendation is the first. There are three more opportunities that could be equally as profitable.

I suggest you move in them quickly.

Because whatever happens in 2010 and beyond...


Owners of Energy Will be the Winners

As the last easy oil flows out of the ground, cash will flow to those who own it. The coming scarcity of oil (and natural gas) will be the rising tide that will carry all energy forms to higher prices (coal, uranium, wind, solar, hydroelectric, bio-mass and more). Moreover, owners of long-term supplies of energy (20 or more years) will be much bigger winners than owners of short-term supplies.

In other words: invest in those companies who OWN or are in the process of FINDING long-lived energy stockpiles... and hold for the long term.

That is the modus operandi of my own investment newsletter, Diggers and Drillers.

See, most energy companies, with few exceptions, have seen their stock valuations plummet in the last 12 months.

This, of course, is tied to big falls in oil prices in 2008.

As breathtaking as that was, I believe it also presents you with a very special - perhaps once in a lifetime - opportunity.

I've compiled full research on four such opportunities in a brand new profit report.

And, with your permission, I'd like to share the results with you - FREE OF CHARGE...


Profit From Oil's 'Long Aftershock'

The glaringly obvious trade here is a play on mid-tier oil and exploration companies - many of which are trading at half last year's price or less.

Of course, it's still risky. Some of the stocks I've picked are mid-tier companies. They've had a rough time in the last year. If you don't have capital to spare, you'll want to give this a miss.

And there's the fact I might be wrong. (Heck, part of me hopes I'm wrong.) But I have seen nothing yet to convince me otherwise.

You might remember that four years a pair of hurricanes blitzed America's Gulf Coast oil and gas refineries, bringing oil production to a crawl.

That alone forced the oil price from $50 to over $70 per barrel, virtually overnight.

Here you can see first-hand just how sensitive the oil markets are to even the tiniest supply bottleneck. Now it's about to happen again. And the smart money's already placing its bets...


https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/8.1.340.0/themes/base/clear.gif

Dan Denning founded and edited the financial newsletter Penny Stock Fortunes in 1998 and edited Strategic Investment, from 2000 to 2006.

Via his high-level, macro-economic and stock-market forecasts in these newsletters, he led over 35,000 subscribers in 70 countries to profits.

Dan's analysis for The Daily Reckoning is read by more than 500,000 people regularly. Dan is also a regular columnist for MoneyWeek, a London financial publication.

In 2002 Dan spent a year observing U.S. markets from Paris before relocating to the London offices of Fleet Street Publications. In 2004 Dan spent six months travelling the globe in search of investment opportunities. This trek resulted in the New York Times bestseller, The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons).

Even if you're only half-convinced yourself, I urge you to get all my latest recommendations and research in a new report called The Long Aftershock: Your Second Swipe at Triple-Digit Energy Returns.

Inside you'll get my very best ideas on how to turn the coming crisis to your financial advantage. You can claim it for FREE by going straight to the end of this report and filling in your details.

The "Saudi of the South" stock mentioned at the start of this letter will be the first recommendation you read about.

I'll tell you a little more about these Aussie oil frontier explorers...


They're Spending Up Large
While Competitors Hibernate

Not only does this company have a major stake in one of the most promising new oil finds on the planet. It's also a "mega cash box".

While many oil outfits have squandered their revenue from triple-digit oil prices, this one has been prudent. It has $340 million net cash reserves in the bank.

If you're a resource company, cash is your lifeline during a credit crisis. It means you don't have to go cap in hand to banks - most of which are refusing to lend anyway - in order to keep your business going.

That's a second reason you should like this stock.

Third: This company is not only maintaining current exploration plans off the coast of New Zealand... it's EXPANDING. It has got the big picture in mind.

BP boss Tony Hayward said recently: "When the economy picks up, demand will pick up very fast and we will quickly run into supply problems."

As you've seen so far, that's something of an understatement. This Australian explorer knows what lies ahead. So it's doing its damndest to make sure it's first in line to fill the supply gap when it arises.

Recently the company decided to start deploying its war chest of cash, announcing plans to expand its drilling operations in New Zealand from 120,000 barrels per day to 180,000 barrels per day.

The Oil and Gas Journal reported:

"The upgrade will enable more oil to be recovered at a faster rate from the currently producing reservoirs and also provide the flexibility to tie-in any future nearby discoveries."

And then went on to say...

"...is now confident it can extract the remaining reserves without the extra development well. There are five attractive prospects near the three producing reservoirs which in total could contain another 50 million bbl of oil."

Look, I've done my homework on this.

And you're just not seeing announcements like these from oil companies these days.

What's more, despite the global downturn, this company is making enough revenue to fund development without digging into its savings. It made $140 million in the final quarter of 2008, despite the sinking oil price.

And there's one final great reason to own this company now...


It Recently Handed Investors $52 Million

Income from your investments is crucial during recession. Investment legend and author of Stocks for the Long Run, Professor Jeremy Siegel, calls dividend-paying stocks "bear market protectors."

Earlier this year, for the first time ever, this company became a dividend payer - announcing a 10% per share special dividend amounting to a massive $52 million.

That takes some chutzpah at a time when revenues are down, oil prices are low and cash is scare.

To me it shows two things: 1) this is a company that respects its shareholders and 2) it's confident it can ride out the storm and start making a killing at the end of it.

With a healthy bank balance, there's every chance it might issue another dividend at the end of the year. Especially if the stock price itself stays cheap.

But you know what? I don't think it will.

Stock in this "Saudi of the South" explorer trades around $2.60.

That's 24% lower than the share price was a year ago.
"Remarkable. True. Hard-hitting."

Through his Diggers & Drillers newsletter and commentary in the Daily Reckoning, Dan Denning has a loyal following of think-outside-the-box' investors. Here are some recent words from some of them...

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-- Luigi Soprani

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-- Mark

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"Dan, I find your mixing data and literary economics as an interesting way of explaining what are very complex issues... currently you are the only decent site on the net offering insights like yours... there are plenty of places that other goldfish brain investors can find "BUY!" or "SELL!"
instructions. Keep up the good work."

-- Edward Martin

But it's recovered well above the 52-week low of $1.75. I believe it's a matter of weeks, maybe DAYS before investors who sold out realise their folly and buy back in... and other bargain hunters start buying as well.

$2.60 is a flat-out bargain.

I believe you'll see the share price at $5 or more in 2010 - even if the oil price yet hit triple digits. After oil prices recover - and they MUST - you could see this company trading at $8 to $12 in as little as three years.

You can get full research on this company by claiming your free report: The Long Aftershock: Your Second Swipe at Triple-Digit Energy Returns.

You can do so by going straight to the end of this letter and filling out your details.

But this isn't the only promising oil play you'll hear about...


Down-But-Not-Out Aussie Explorer Set for a Comeback

Two and a half years ago, this company was doing brilliantly.

It had just broken its production record, and had assets running at an all-time high extraction rate of 12,000 barrels per day.

Then, production started declining.

The company, at the time, was under poor management, and it made a cardinal error: it hadn't planned ahead. It simply didn't have enough reserves under the ground to maintain its valuation. It's like a grocery store running out of bananas, only much worse. Without more oil in the pipeline, the prospects for future earnings turned dim quickly.

The stock bottomed out at a bit above $1.50.

Then this explorer started to get its act together and cleaned out management.

It now has oil and gas exploration interests totalling nearly 13,000km2 in over three different countries; Australia, New Zealand and Brunei.

This company has no oil hedging whatsoever, and a market cap of only $111 million.

That's good, because it leaves the company fully exposed to a big, upward oil shock.

And it seems this outfit is already starting to reap the rewards from oil's recent rally.

In fact...


It Just Got a 'Speeding Ticket' from the ASX!

In June, this explorer got a speeding ticket from the ASX.

It shot up 53% from its low earlier in the year.

When the ASX sends a "speeding ticket" it asks a company to explain unusual price action in its share. And a 53% rise that comes without any accompanying announcements or material changes to the company's prospects IS a bit strange.

The company said it's not aware of anything that might explain the big move.

I can think of something that would explain it.

Someone is buying the stock. It could be a lot ofinvestors. Maybe they know something we don't. Frankly, there are a lot of moves like this on Australian listed stocks. It happens, and then a few days later something comes out from the company that was obviously known privately a few days before. I'm not saying that's the case here. I'm just saying it happens a lot.

So what is it in this case?

Well, when you rule out the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, that just leaves the knowns. And what we know is that crude oil is rising. We also knowthat this company's share price fall from peak-to-trough was nearly 75%. The stock was deeply oversold at fifty cents.

But it is not yet fully valued at the current price of just over $1.

I like this company's prospects. I expect it to do extremely well with oil above $60... and spectacularly if we get near $100 again (as I'm positive we will).

You'll get full details on this company in The Long Aftershock: Your Second Swipe at Triple-Digit Energy Returns. You can claim it now - for free - by going straight to the end of this letter.

Finally, this 'jack-of-all-trades' is involved in BHP's much-hyped Olympic Dam expansion plans.


'Jack-Of-All-Trades' Lands $150m Middle East Contract

This company focuses on four different profit generators - all oil and energy-related.

In fact it's got a finger in some of the fastest growing pies in the world.

It's one of only a handful of firms in the world with the capacity and expertise to handle complex energy projects.

Expanding production at existing oil facilities (on and o -shore) is big business for these guys.

In fact the company has just revealed that it has won a Program Management Consultancy contract for an integrated gas development project in the Middle East. It's worth US$150 million, and the task is to manage six engineering, procurement, and construction packages. This is just one example of many such contracts in regularly wins.

The productivity of the world's oil and gas fields depends on a high level of experience. This is one of the few companies in the world that can offer this kind of soup-to-nuts project management.

The company has contracts for both conventional and unconventional energy projects. They are spread out all over the globe, giving Australian investors a bit of diversification in the company's earnings profile.

And although it remains unpopular in Australia, the world's nuclear build-out continues. This company has a piece of that action as well, and is investing in its nuclear expertise.

In fact this outfit has a portfolio of power projects that includes: solar, nuclear, new coal, and one of the more popular - but expensive - power projects of the next 50 years, the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal plant. This is a greener form of coal with fewer carbon dioxide emissions than a conventional pulverized coal power generation plant.

First-half profits were up 29%.

I think that's just the beginning. If, as I believe, the oil price keeps rising, it should again see an expanding order book.

This stock has been set back by the market crash. But its core business is remarkably strong.

I'll give you everything you need to know in your free report, which you can claim at the end of this letter.

And there's one final play on rising oil prices I want to fill you in on...


Aussie LNG Producer Teams Up With Exxon

Your last Aussie recommendation is cornering a lucrative new energy market in Papua New Guinea (PNG).

It has a 34% stake in Exxon Mobil's large $11 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in PNG.

That project is targeting delivery of its first LNG cargo in late 2013. In April of 2009, the company told the ASX that a Chinese company (probably PetroChina or China National O shore Oil Company) has agreed to buy LNG from the PNG venture.

Whichever state oil company it is, it has agreed to buy two million metric tonnes of LNG a year.

The company's managing director says more off-take agreements will be signed now that the first one is in the bag. This is a company with great revenue prospects even if energy prices stay flat.

But it's a stock you'll probably want to move on quickly.

Talks with banks on final project financing will start this month, according to Bloomberg, after key terms were agreed with export credit agencies late in the second quarter.

This company is in good financial shape, too. It ended the first quarter of 2009 with US$402 million in cash and no debt.

That bad news is this company has just reported an expected fall in first half revenue thanks to the weaker oil price. However second quarter revenues were up to US$116 million from the first quarter figure of $71.4 million.

This outfit is a key Aussie player in the most advanced LNG project going.

At a price of around $5.59, this stock is already up 11.13% since I first tipped it in April.

If you're betting on higher energy prices, this stock is a great punt.

You'll get my full research on this company - future projects, financials, target price and more - by claiming the free report at the end of this letter.


Do Not Delay In Getting This Information

The whole world needs oil. Australia needs it more than most. From here on in, it's going to get harder and harder for us to extract or purchase new supplies.

You've had a glimpse at the gathering storm clouds. A great game of chess is being played by oil multinationals and countries around the world.

Against this background, investing NOW in oil and energy doesn't just look attractive... it could almost be deemed mandatory for anyone who wants to grow wealth and preserve capital.

You can get my four best opportunities by claiming a free report: The Long Aftershock: Your Second Swipe at Triple-Digit Energy Returns.

Of course, you're probably wondering why I'm giving invaluable research like this to you free of charge.

Well, with your permission I'd like to send you something else for free as well: a trial subscription to my newsletter, Diggers and Drillers.

When I say "trial", I mean it. I wouldn't ask anyone to commit to anything in this environment without giving it a good test-run.

If you don't like my analysis, we can part ways. And you can keep my just-published profit plan: The Long Aftershock: Your 'Second Swipe' at Triple-Digit Energy Returns - with my compliments.

However, I'm willing to bet you'll find Diggers and Drillers an invaluable ally in the trying months ahead.Here's why...


How to Make Money on the Markets: 2009 to 2012

Now is the time to start owning real assets.

The unprecedented moves by central banks in the last 18 months to stave off collapse are likely to further destroy what little faith remains in the U.S. dollar and many other paper currencies.

If the dollar continues to struggle, a diversified basket of commodities would likely appreciate (in dollar terms) and retain purchasing power.

The solution? Own tangible assets.

If you accept this trial invitation today, I will go about helping you acquire and accumulate the best, most oversold tangible asset investments I can find on the market, both locally and abroad. I'm talking about gold... steel... oil and energy... agriculture...

The kind of stuff that retains value - even if paper currencies burn.

The aims of Diggers and Drillers are twofold...



To give you the best possible chance of seeing positive returns on your portfolio WHILE a recession or even depression is still in place. And,



To build, at a discount, a rock-solid portfolio of investments that will take off like a rocket after the credit bubble has deflated.


Capital Preservation and then Profits

That's the Diggers and Drillers manifesto for 2010.

I can't promise you we always get it right with our share tips and market calls. This market, frankly, is the most bloody treacherous I think we'll ever see in our lifetimes.

But I'm pretty sure you won't find better advice on the subject, anywhere in the world. I'm not boasting. I've looked. You either get the 'party line' from some brokerage whose job it is to promote a company... half-baked advice from some hack needing to fill column inches... or anonymous posts from random resource nuts in the blogosphere.

No one seems to take a step back and look at the big picture.

And what serious pundits there are seem happy to talk-up companies or projects without doing the due diligence. But this is what we do here!

And, if I may say so, we do it well.

Our work is not compromised by any conflicts of interest or other agendas. We don't produce hype-up fear stories just because they sell newspapers. But, on the flip-side, we don't shy away from telling it how it really is. We publish our best investment ideas and we don't get paid a cent by any company to promote it. And there's never been a better time for you to get hold of this kind of investment intelligence.

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"Your readers should listen. Certainly, I am!"

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"We will see how it pans out but I agree that the worst is still to come and I'm sleeping FINE. If I put it back into shares now I will be in front but if I'm patient this could really work for me. Thanks again, I am truly grateful..."

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Peak Soil: The 2 Aussie Stocks Racking Up Millions from an Agricultural Shortage: Ourstrategy for the Aussie agriculture sector is simple. It's very long-term, and perfect for an investor's timeframe. But really, it has less to do with Australia's agricultural industry than it does with China's and India's.. If you're looking for great returns three to five years from now, you'll want this information.



Gold Mania: As recently as the late 1970s goldsoared when government deficits exploded and the world economy went into recession. Gold becomes a "safe haven" for investors seeking protection from falling stock prices. In this report, you'll find the case for gold in pictures AND words, including Australia's Five Cheapest Gold Stocks for 2009 and why they should benefit from the coming gold mania.



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You don't pay for any of these four FREE reports. They are yours, on-the house.

And there's another aspect you'll find useful...

Every week, I'd also like to send you a FREE 'state-of-play' investment update, straight to your e-mail account. This will bring you hot-off-the-press news... as well as developments relating to your current holdings. Plus other hot opportunities I have percolating on the stove.

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Take the next 30 days to test my analysis. Follow my predictions for the market. See how my analysis matches with events that are unfolding. Track my tips for the next three months. If you don't like what you see... for any reason... then contact me for a full, unconditional refund.

And you can keep all the reports I send you with my compliments.

That's a pretty fair deal, right? With that in mind...


What Will You Pay If You Decide to Stick Around?

If you could get this calibre of research from other publishers (and I don't believe you can) it would cost you anywhere from $700 to $1,500 dollars.

You'll be pleased to hear an annual subscription to Diggers and Drillers will set you back just $134.

Listen, I can say with complete confidence you won't get this level of investment intelligence for anywhere near this price anywhere else in Australia. As reader Don L emailed to us recently:

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Frankly, if $134 seems like a hefty sum, these investment opportunities probably aren't your cup of tea.

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Sincerely,

https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/8.1.340.0/themes/base/clear.gif

Dan Denning
Diggers & Drillers

PS: I can't say for sure when the coming oil supply crunch will occur. But I can say this: it will happen QUICKLY.

Markets are forward-looking beasts. As soon as people start realising the oil we're going to need two or three years after the credit crisis ends just won't be there... well, who knows what will happen?

But you can bet it WON'T be cheaper oil.

To find out my best plays on profiting this now, simply click here to try Diggers and Drillers! (https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/redir.aspx?C=cfedcdc1d21140db9bba3fc4ff02688a&URL=http%3a%2f%2femail.thefinancialarena.com.au%2f emailmarketer%2flink.php%3fM%3d1349517%26N%3d319%2 6L%3d1096%26F%3dH)

PPS: The Australia Association of Peak Oil says it's a case of 'when' not 'if' petrol prices here soar as high as $8 a litre.


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[Casa del Energia]

I presume these guys are spruiking AWE -- haven't time to look further into it... but geez do you reckon they used to work for the Reader's Digest PR dept? Talk about a bunch of gasbags...

EDIT -- apologies for the excessive length of this!

----------


Investors: Here's how YOU could make
223% to 706% gains from the...


'Saudi of the
Deep South'


Studies reveal there could be 10 billion barrels of oil of the coast of New Zealand At current prices, that's $670 billion in untapped crude

And one tiny Aussie company will use a
revolutionary submersible drill to find it...


Drilling begins in November. Read on and stake
your claim in the biggest oil story of 2010
.............................................
[/FONT]

Wow - must go out and get some now.

Must get one of them stay-forever-sharp knives (as-seen-on-tv)that cuts through corundum as if it were butter so that I can carve up all the riches and spoils that are implied.

[arjay]

Wow - must go out and get some now.

Must get one of them stay-forever-sharp knives (as-seen-on-tv)that cuts through corundum as if it were butter so that I can carve up all the riches and spoils that are implied.

Reminds me of all that 'Blue-eyed Arab" talk in the early 80's surrounding the GSB drills.

[the machine]

Wow - must go out and get some now.

Must get one of them stay-forever-sharp knives (as-seen-on-tv)that cuts through corundum as if it were butter so that I can carve up all the riches and spoils that are implied.


have not read the article - per chance was there a nigeria connection in it.
as for new revolutionary rig - kan tan IV was built in 1983.

awe finished down today

but am aiming to buy some, decision due when my last 20,000 PPP tick over 12 months and 50% capital gains tax kicks in - thats 3weeks away

M

[Casa del Energia]

have not read the article - per chance was there a nigeria connection in it.
as for new revolutionary rig - kan tan IV was built in 1983.

awe finished down today

but am aiming to buy some, decision due when my last 20,000 tick over 12 months and 50% capital gains tax kicks in - thats 3weks awya

M

Built 1983 - cripes, there will be shareholders not born when kt IV was launched (If that's what you do with rigs).

SP holding onto yesterdays gain quite nicely, good to see it hasn't gone too wild as well, would be nice to see it 'drift' up as drills and Kupe get closer rather go into wild speculation territory. Might be opportune to quietly accumulate (?)

[the machine]

nzo are XD on asx so that might take a cent or two off the sp

am going to be spending my dividends

M

[geezy]

recent burst of activity due to div ?

[the machine]

amazing, nzo ex div on asx and sp goes up

M

[blockhead]

This in my inbox today, dont know how they figure a div of 7.46c, my info suggests a div of 05c but as it is "expert" advice who am I to disagree.

September 16, 2009 EQUITY IRG SHAREINFO MONEYONLINE

INVESTOR SERVICES

New Zealand Oil and Gas
New Zealand Oil and Gas share price could rally by half if four planned well explorations succeed, according to analysts. NZOG plans to drill the Albacore oil prospect over October and November, and the Hoki prospect in December. According to analysts the downside risk of the wells not succeeding is 8 cents a share but the upside potential is $1.03 per share. Furthermore NZOG will go ex dividend on the 21st of September, meaning that you have until Friday to purchase the shares and pick up a dividend of 7.46c representing a respectable yield of 4.5%. NZOG is a cornerstone share for oil and gas exposure in any NZ share portfolio.

To discuss this share please call Nick O'Boyle on Auckland 304 0233 or 0800 437 8489. You can Nick an email by clicking

[shawsie]

is the fall ex div usually mechanistic, ie comapny worth 5c less per share, it follows that SP drops exactly 5c on Monday on open?

plus, if I sell today, I doubt I will be on the register on Friday to collect my div, I wonder out loud if it follows that selling today will keep me on the register for Friday, so I get a cum div price, and a div?

whether its div day -2 or -3 Im not sure I bought 100 ANZ some months ago to get in for their share placement, but though bought 2 days prior to due date, later found I was not on the register when it mattered, and NatBAnk or DB not sure which, posted a message that you had to buy the Tuesday to be counted on the Friday.

[sideline]

This in my inbox today, dont know how they figure a div of 7.46c, my info suggests a div of 05c but as it is "expert" advice who am I to disagree.
........

$0.05000000 <--- what you get in the hand
$0.00139552. <--- RWT paid on your behalf
$0.02322974. <--- NZ company tax imputed to you
---------------------------------
$0.0746...... <---- GROSS dividend per share

[shawsie]

so my post should actually have SP dropping 7.46c on Monday...

[digger]

is the fall ex div usually mechanistic, ie comapny worth 5c less per share, it follows that SP drops exactly 5c on Monday on open?

plus, if I sell today, I doubt I will be on the register on Friday to collect my div, I wonder out loud if it follows that selling today will keep me on the register for Friday, so I get a cum div price, and a div?

whether its div day -2 or -3 Im not sure I bought 100 ANZ some months ago to get in for their share placement, but though bought 2 days prior to due date, later found I was not on the register when it mattered, and NatBAnk or DB not sure which, posted a message that you had to buy the Tuesday to be counted on the Friday.

shawsie you will find that all that gets sorted out in the wash. If you are on the register on 5pm on friday you get the div,if not you don't. The people who sell on late friday may get away with it for some short time as i once did with another share,however in the end you have to pay it back through the registre or broker. So no free lunch here.
And what to he-l do you want to sell for anyways with so much about to start happening after such a long wait. Think we have waited since 1986 for KUPE and within 6 months will know for sure how big the greater TUI field is. What a ride and you talk of selling.Do you not like great things?

[blockhead]

$0.05000000 <--- what you get in the hand
$0.00139552. <--- RWT paid on your behalf
$0.02322974. <--- NZ company tax imputed to you
---------------------------------
$0.0746...... <---- GROSS dividend per share


Thanks for that Sidie, guessed there was a logical explaination.

[sideline]

so my post should actually have SP dropping 7.46c on Monday...

Since nobody gets the tax in their hand, the net benefit (and possible difference in 'value') per
share is only 5c.

[friedegg]

Since nobody gets the tax in their hand, the net benefit (and possible difference in 'value') per
share is only 5c.

nah its just been made less now

[digger]

nah its just been made less now

Soon be a Clayton's dividend. The div you are having when you are not having a dividend.

[friedegg]

Soon be a Clayton's dividend. The div you are having when you are not having a dividend.
quite bizzare really,did they only realise this today with the posters showing in breakdown what they thought they were going to get

[shawsie]

Digger, thanks

was looking at an arbitrage around div time is all.

but as you mention it, 3 things stick in my throat...
1. if i wanted pan pac shares i would buy them.
2. ditto prc.
3. great to have working capital and no debt, but monster bank account?

so nog gets a reasonable cap, but 1/2 of it is vapour-capital (that might just be my contribution to the traders lexicon)

gogogo gadget kupe, albacore and friends, i hope the kantan4 doesnt have vietnamese made caterpillars ....

and mgmt, you cant buy ppp anymore, its too big, and pike needs to stand on its own two feet, why not give us the shares to do with as we see fit?

[Sideshow Bob]

Another good solid rise of 3c ahead of going ex div.....

[digger]

Another good solid rise of 3c ahead of going ex div.....
The old drilling fever must be taking hold.Would say it is the punters lining up for Abacore which is suppost to start next month. So with the actually drill about 1/3 finished expect the punters to pull out again and the price to retreat a little as with the old pattern
Mind you KUPE has to be nearing the start line so maybe starting to get factored in.With gas prices world wide falling we might be thankfull the contract has only an inf;ation adjusted clause in it and not a world average price.I remember some years ago i thought this inflation adjusted clause as being a bad outcome for us but it has turned the other way.
The ever shrinking dividend will not have much effect on the SP next monday when it is X as the price is going up faster daily than the div value.

[Casa del Energia]

Ok, I will stick my neck directly on the block here; come ex div - the price will at least remain on par if not continue up. There are too many good vibe things happening or in pipeline (excuse pun) - more specific reasons:
1 - For some odd reason NZ shares often go up after ex.
2 - Multiple drills - at least one is a near dead cert.
3 - Kupe, (of course) - with lots of liquids as extra cream.
4 - Generally rising market (slight doff of hat to mcdunk).

The sky may be the limit - but NZO is turning into a high altitude aircraft.

[shawsie]

CDE are you backing your neck extension?

there are 100k shares for sale @ 174

if at worse SP flat then sell @ 174 Monday = free carry $5000?

[friedegg]

CDE are you backing your neck extension?

there are 100k shares for sale @ 174

if at worse SP flat then sell @ 174 Monday = free carry $5000?
its not quite $5000 anymore though,i think it depends whether monday is a positive one all round as to whether it holds todays closing price or drifts down,probably a few like me that pulled thier sell orders this week cause the ex date was so close and may resume selling next week

[Casa del Energia]

Shawsie….Still leaving neck out. Ok, 100k shares might gum up the works for a while - but we're only 2hrs in on days trade and who knows how the depth may change during day.

Neck extension is based on broad-brush factors - details and actuals always ruin a good theory.

I'll check the market mid Monday to see if my head is still on.

[Rabbi]

Last week was the time to top up as at 5 cents a share you would be ahead on Monday and even paid for your brokerage.

$1.68 on Monday and then North to blue skies with the scramble for everyone to get on board for Albacore. :)

[temptation]

I'm hoping for a dip next week. The lower the share price, the more shares I'll be issued with via the dividend reinvestment plan!
The blue skies can wait for another week...

[digger]

I'm hoping for a dip next week. The lower the share price, the more shares I'll be issued with via the dividend reinvestment plan!
The blue skies can wait for another week...

What a narrow,self serving greedy post that was. The same idea had crossed my mine and will be happy for future SP rises to wait for another two weeks.Yeh,greed and self interest is the order of the day and you can be sure the cash dividend investers are hoping for a hugh rise so they will have their cake and not pay with too much dilution.

[bermuda]

Check out the NZO Website for the pdf of the Hopkins Memorial Lecture

Thanks gbeenz,
I was hoping to go to that lecture too. Will look it up on the Web. My brother went and said it was well presented followed by some very good questions.Cheers

[777]

Only 4.8c dividend now.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has recalculated its 2009 dividend payment and issued new details to the market.

NZOG announced a dividend of 5 cents per ordinary share on 26 August 2009. On 3 September 2009 it advised the market of the following details:
• The dividend amount per security would be calculated at $0.05139552.
• Resident Withholding Tax (RWT) would be calculated at $0.00139552.
• The net result being that shareholders would receive cash in the hand of 5 cents per ordinary share.

In taking this approach, NZOG intended that the company would meet the RWT obligation, to ensure that all New Zealand resident shareholders received a minimum net payment of 5 cents per ordinary share.

Different tax treatment arises because of the difference between the new company tax rate of 30%, and the RWT rate payable on dividends, which remains at 33%.

Like many companies, NZOG is currently in a transitional period, where it has some historical 33% Imputation Credits, and has accumulated 30% Imputation Credits under the new corporate tax legislation. This means that a "top-up" of RWT is payable on the portion of the 2009 Dividend that has 30% Imputation Credits attached.

NZOG has now received advice that it should pay only 5 cents gross per ordinary share, with the consequence that the net cash dividend received by most New Zealand resident shareholders will be approximately 4.8 cents per share, due to the payment of RWT. This is in line with the practice of other companies.

If the Resident Withholding Tax rate remains at 33% and the Company Tax rate at 30%, there will also be RWT deducted from future dividends.

[Rabbi]

It took them long enough to wake up to that, but why take it out of our pockets. They made a dividend announcement and they should stick to it. What the heck, they have got a big enough coffer, enough to fly Salisbury to Oil Conferences all over the place.

Shame I Say!:eek:

[Nitaa]

It took them long enough to wake up to that, but why take it out of our pockets. They made a dividend announcement and they should stick to it. What the heck, they have got a big enough coffer, enough to fly Salisbury to Oil Conferences all over the place.

Shame I Say!:eek:Actually they ae not taking it out of your pocket. They are leaving a tad more in the piggy bank for you. If you want that extra little bit then simply sell 2 extra shares for every 1,000 you own.

Personally i thought the dividend represents a very good ROI compared to what other investments are offering and nzo retain enough capital to grow their company further.

[temptation]

What a narrow,self serving greedy post that was. The same idea had crossed my mine and will be happy for future SP rises to wait for another two weeks.Yeh,greed and self interest is the order of the day and you can be sure the cash dividend investers are hoping for a hugh rise so they will have their cake and not pay with too much dilution.

What a strange reaction!:confused:

[blockhead]

I suspect ol Digger was making a tongue in cheek comment there, touch of cynicism I read into it.

[digger]

I suspect ol Digger was making a tongue in cheek comment there, touch of cynicism I read into it.
Your on to it blockhead. Not such a blockhead afterall.

[Grand Uber]

this forum is in serious need of a joking, sarcasm, tounge and cheek comments etc. font!

[arjay]

What a strange reaction!:confused:


fa⋅ce⋅tious (adjective)

1. not meant to be taken seriously or literally: a facetious remark.
2. amusing; humorous.
3. lacking serious intent; concerned with something nonessential, amusing, or frivolous: a facetious person.

[shawsie]

CDE

looks like it would have been a line ball, the market was the essence of efficiency, 173 cum div close, 168 xd open.

[Casa del Energia]

CDE

looks like it would have been a line ball, the market was the essence of efficiency, 173 cum div close, 168 xd open.

Um, yes - I noticed the figures (and they are getting worser). Not good feeling to have egg on face. Going out to local second-hand market to see if I can purchase a reasonably decent sword to fall on.

(In mitigation - it did look like it was all going to plan, 1.69 was a good start - but then the real world took over and ruined my day. Anyone for custard?)

[Rabbi]

Of course the lower the SP over the next few days the more shares you will get if you took shares in lieu of dividend. Still a long way to go this week though.

[LJB]

this forum is in serious need of a joking, sarcasm, tounge and cheek comments etc. font!

...for the benefit of (non-Canadian) north American and German posters(insert aforementioned font or icon).

[remy]

yeh 1.65 very disapointing.. should of taken up the share payment plan as in it for the long haul.. wouldnt be surprised at all too see sub 160 this week.

[friedegg]

the big trades never affected the price so more wanting to get out overwiegh those wanting to get in,the price will hover around this mark until late oct

[Casa del Energia]

Yanki, fried:-

Here's a theory: Big players are watching things like the baltic exchange and the run out of stimulus monies - thus expecting another bear market, moving into cash. Small players (me) don’t care a rats about dry goods shipping levels and are focussed on the actuals that will happen in nog very soon and are going in for what is hoped to be a good 'kill'. It might be that for once, nzo could move against the market(s).

Of course - I make no prediction; given my recent track record.

[notie]

just wait, this stock is going places

[digger]

just wait, this stock is going places

Notie being the character you are which direction do you have in mind? Is that forwards or backwards?

[shawsie]

cde your observation matches my thinking, but i know others believe in a long linear lift.

The energy sector is pretty susceptible, first a lurch to utilities then out of equities. picking winners will be like catching falling knives

a bit of objective TA will be called for I feel, a short abscence from the mighty oilers.

a graph of, say, 1985-95 oilers and all ords, may be the best indicator, mighty bubble waelth collapse, green shoots, real economy collapse, is my inkling is the same shape now, and we are nearing half way...

ps when the dow hits 11 i'm goneburger.

[Nitaa]

ps when the dow hits 11 i'm goneburger.11 hundred or 11 thousand?

Interesting views. People are looking shaky out there or at best very uncertain. One thing is for sure, no can can accurately predict what will happen.

[Casa del Energia]

...
a bit of objective TA will be called for I feel, a short abscence from the mighty oilers....



Sadly, you are more than likely correct. I as usual, will be out in the FA wilderness wondering why the world doesn't behave in a logical fashion.

[manxman]

I as usual, will be out in the FA wilderness wondering why the world doesn't behave in a logical fashion.

As Lord Keynes observed: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

But be of good cheer. Hold your head up high (that should be easy).
Friedegg must be just about divested of his surplus shares and the Kan Tan IV is just over the horizon. Soon McDunk will be murmering "Drill and Thrill" at the other end of the bar and the baying mob will be beating down the doors trying to climb aboard. or perhaps not

[shawsie]

haha Nita , if the Dow hits 11 hundred we are all goneburger.

[Nitaa]

haha Nita , if the Dow hits 11 hundred we are all goneburger.yea, we might be learning off the third world countries on how to live off the land.

[Billy Boy]

11 hundred or 11 thousand?

Interesting views. People are looking shaky out there or at best very uncertain. One thing is for sure, no can can accurately predict what will happen.
Quite right Ntia
Sept, end of 2nd quarter investments are comming in,
October :eek::eek:
I got spare cash and I'm not too sure where to put it.
Any suggestions ??
Dont be rude !!!
Cheers BB:)

[blockhead]

Put it back under tha bed where ya got it from BB, very safe there.

[arjay]

Anyone spot that gas field to the west of Kawhia on the map in the shareholders report? A typo right ..........?

[shawsie]

so the start of the second week following div record date,

was the sp suppressed last week by extra shares taker-upperers ...

or sold down by cash hungry cheque takers ...

or a normal market reaction to the fall in poo?

anyone want to take a punt?

[digger]

so the start of the second week following div record date,

was the sp suppressed last week by extra shares taker-upperers ...

or sold down by cash hungry cheque takers ...

or a normal market reaction to the fall in poo?

anyone want to take a punt?

The answer as i see it to your first question is both a small yes and no. There is no advantage of taking shares in lue and selling to depress the SP. What you gain doing that you have already lost. Where the YES comes IMHO is that last week all the share takers up as you put it certainly would be out of the buying market for last week.This week they will return so i would expect the SP to finish the week up about 5 to 10 cents given a normal week and the world does not fall apart as it often does these days.
The second question is opposite the question it asks. If they are cash hungry they have a very good need for the cash and will not be buying NZO which they could have had in the first place.Trying to do this is another example of losing as much as you hope to gain.Given a rational invester [if you can find one]i would not expect anyone would do this.
Your third question IMHO is spot on. NZO does seem to go up and down with the POO and the world current and ever changing finanical outlook.Watch the weeks event in IRAN.
Cheers

[shawsie]

yes iran looms large, that will put a risk premium floor under poo this week I would have thought, whatever US inventories and the like do.

the day jean-paul satre died, a history lecturer said in jest,

"satre spent his like denying the existent of god. well today, god denied the existed of satre."

replace satre with iran and god with israel and what do you get..?

[boysy]

ppp in trading halt pending a material announcement could have quite the impact on nzo sp

[shawsie]

no halt on nzo, quick readers in for some arbitrage?

[Snapper]

Just got my voting papers in the mail, nothing too out of left field but I was interested in the 2 new guys putting themselves up for a director's seat. Does anyone know anything about these two (Mr AA Dick and Mr PD Grogan)? T

heir chances of getting a seat on the board resemble a snowball's chance in hell but I always think its a good idea not to just rubberstamp everything the existing board says.

[Nitaa]

It looks as though PD Grogan could possibly be a race horse owner. :confused:

Race 5 - Horse 1 - "Beyond Faith" :D

Racing Form (http://74.125.153.132/search?q=cache:KKPbuti7zx8J:static.tab.co.nz/content/pdf_form/2009_08_29_Raci_M12_Book.pdf+PD+Grogan&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz)

The horse could have been named for the chance he has of getting on the NZOG board. :D <joke>Go son. go son. you lazy donkey.. there goes another 10 quid

[Zaphod]

IMO, the company could gain such external expert advice through contractual means, without the financial and legal encumbrances that directorships entail.

[geezy]

anyone knows when Kupe is coming on ?or at least expected to be?

[friedegg]

very rarely get updates on kupe,it still is just stated as final quarter of this year and i spose that means oct-dec,i think the main holdups atm are legal consent type things

[Nitaa]

very rarely get updates on kupe,it still is just stated as final quarter of this year and i spose that means oct-dec,i think the main holdups atm are legal consent type thingsFirst quarter of 2010 i think it is

[swissboy]

Why say such things??? The latest NZO release clearly states Kupe production will begin last quarter 2009 which is before 2010 i think, but as usual we could expect the information towards the end of that quarter based on past releases

[Oiler]

First quarter of 2010 i think it is

I think you are right Nita ;);)

[arjay]

Last quarter 09 means we are unlikely to hear anything substantial till first quarter 10. Remember Tui - it was several weeks after startup before before they had sorted the glitches and were able to give us a few figures.

[evilroyrule]

hi guys, transportation of oil from kupe already booked and will start well before end of the year.

[Oiler]

hi guys, transportation of oil from kupe already booked and will start well before end of the year.

Roy I hope you are right about oil well before year end but I doubt it :confused::confused:

Kupe will produce condensate, not quite oil. I expect start up before year end, but no serious production until early next year as Nita suggested.

I maybe wrong :D

[digger]

Roy I hope you are right about oil well before year end but I doubt it :confused::confused:

Kupe will produce condensate, not quite oil. I expect start up before year end, but no serious production until early next year as Nita suggested.

I maybe wrong :D



You can be sure this will be fully discussed at the AGM on the 28th.Contuoius disclosure is only a theory with most of the good stuff turning up at the annual meeting.

[gambier33]

You must remember that gas processing plants are fairly complex and potentially dangerous systems (remember the Longford gas plant explosion in Victoria a few years ago). Also remember that all those pipes, compressors, vessels, valves, instruments, and control systems etc haven't yet been exposed to gas or condensate yet. The insides of "empty" pipes etc now have air or moisture in them. Therefore, production will not start with a simple turn of a tap.

Prior to introducing raw gas from offshore into the onshore gas processing plant there needs to be a period of equipment testing, preparations, and plant dry-out. I'd imagine the NZ workplace safety regulator will also need to be satisfied the plant is safe to licence and for people to work in and live near.

This is what Orign Energy advised in April 2006 about the start-up of the onshore Lang Lang gas plant which is the processing plant for the BassGas Project (offshore wells in the Yolla gas and condensate field):

"The steady and methodical process of working through the commissioning schedule and addressing each new issue as it arises is continuing, and is supported by equipment vendors and specialists on site. While there has been good progress, the commissioning phase continues to reveal a significant number of unexpected construction defects which must be remedied before the plant commences production.

As a result this phase of the commissioning and start-up is taking longer than initially anticipated. It is now expected that first product sales will take place in May, with production ramp-up and plant testing continuing during May and into June. The project is therefore not likely to make a significant financial contribution to Origin Energy for the remainder of the financial year ending 30 June 2006."

It's clearly not a simple process and for all construction projects, no matter how good design looks on paper, there are always unexpected issues that only commissioning shows up. Minor problems cost only a few hours or days to a commissioning schedule; big problems can swallow up weeks and months with rebuilds.

[Oiler]

You must remember that gas processing plants are fairly complex and potentially dangerous systems (remember the Longford gas plant explosion in Victoria a few years ago). Also remember that all those pipes, compressors, vessels, valves, instruments, and control systems etc haven't yet been exposed to gas or condensate yet. The insides of "empty" pipes etc now have air or moisture in them. Therefore, production will not start with a simple turn of a tap.

Prior to introducing raw gas from offshore into the onshore gas processing plant there needs to be a period of equipment testing, preparations, and plant dry-out. I'd imagine the NZ workplace safety regulator will also need to be satisfied the plant is safe to licence and for people to work in and live near.

This is what Orign Energy advised in April 2006 about the start-up of the onshore Lang Lang gas plant which is the processing plant for the BassGas Project (offshore wells in the Yolla gas and condensate field):

"The steady and methodical process of working through the commissioning schedule and addressing each new issue as it arises is continuing, and is supported by equipment vendors and specialists on site. While there has been good progress, the commissioning phase continues to reveal a significant number of unexpected construction defects which must be remedied before the plant commences production.

As a result this phase of the commissioning and start-up is taking longer than initially anticipated. It is now expected that first product sales will take place in May, with production ramp-up and plant testing continuing during May and into June. The project is therefore not likely to make a significant financial contribution to Origin Energy for the remainder of the financial year ending 30 June 2006."

It's clearly not a simple process and for all construction projects, no matter how good design looks on paper, there are always unexpected issues that only commissioning shows up. Minor problems cost only a few hours or days to a commissioning schedule; big problems can swallow up weeks and months with rebuilds.

Well said Gambier ;)

Commissioning is the most dangerous phase of any O & G project and as you say problems can swallow up a lot of time. Lets hope that is not the case with KUPE :)

Design always looks good on paper but unfortunately there many other factors that come into the picture during construction and only show up when commissioning.

[Dusty]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2930018/Mining-companys-shares-could-rise-by-2

Interesting article on the 4 projects and several broker valuations of NZO. Reckons Kupe could be producing by the end of the year. No doubt this article helped with the higher opening even though oil prices sunk under $70 a barrell on friday.

[friedegg]

i must congranulate the nzo media pr team for pulling off such a great stunt!
the monday before the dividend went ex the media released a report claiming if all 4 wells come in nzo sp could go up by $2 and the sp rose;),yesterday the same media released on that day was released again,and the sp rose;)....
if they continue to release this same news every monday it wont be long before it hits $2:)

[digger]

i must congranulate the nzo media pr team for pulling off such a great stunt!
the monday before the dividend went ex the media released a report claiming if all 4 wells come in nzo sp could go up by $2 and the sp rose;),yesterday the same media released on that day was released again,and the sp rose;)....
if they continue to release this same news every monday it wont be long before it hits $2:)

friedegg,you are correct in the way you put it but i think NZO is pampering to a slow learning audience. Saying something once and never repeating has some merit in theory but in the world of human communations it has a very poor record.In fact i am sure you can think of many instances where junk repeated often enought becomes real like. Think here the finanical world of swaps and deratives and how multiple crap said over and over by {trustworthy} individuals gave nothing a value.

[Casa del Energia]

friedegg,you are correct in the way you put it but i think NZO is pampering to a slow learning audience. Saying something once and never repeating has some merit in theory but in the world of human communations it has a very poor record.In fact i am sure you can think of many instances where junk repeated often enought becomes real like. Think here the finanical world of swaps and deratives and how multiple crap said over and over by {trustworthy} individuals gave nothing a value.

Well, I find it very annoying - what it has done is cranked up the price sooner than I exepcted forcing me to bring forward planned top up before the usual drill program price mania. The net effect of such 'helpful good news' is to simply loose me a bit of intrest from the bank. :mad:

[Zaphod]

Well, I find it very annoying - what it has done is cranked up the price sooner than I exepcted forcing me to bring forward planned top up before the usual drill program price mania. The net effect of such 'helpful good news' is to simply loose me a bit of intrest from the bank. :mad:

Assuming of course, that that was the real reason why the SP rose.... ;)

[digger]

Paul Grogan is standing for directorship of NZO at the upcoming AGM on the 28th. Today i received a letter from him regarding this matter. I have just retruned emailed him for more info and will give a detailed comments when i hear from him. In the meantime has everyone else got a letter? Fish if you are reading did you get one?
Until later

[mattyroo]

Article in today's PNN...



Upside on NZOG horizonhttp://www.petroleumnews.net/web_images/grey.gifNeil Ritchie, New Zealand
Wednesday, 7 October 2009

NEW Zealand Oil & Gas’s participation in the upcoming offshore Taranaki exploration campaign could more than double its share price, according to investment banker and broker McDouall Stuart.

The Wellington-headquartered broker released its latest report on NZOG this week, saying the company’s exploration strategy was “becoming clearer and more comforting”, although NZOG appeared to have “snookered itself” regarding significantly increasing its 14.9% stake in, or taking control of, fellow Tui oil fields partner and dual-listed company Pan Pacific Petroleum.

“NZOG continues to present a picture of outstanding corporate health. In addition to having cash on hand (of close to $NZ175 million [$A144 million]), it holds significant cornerstone stakes in three major and value-accretive producing or near-producing assets.

“In addition, over the past couple of months NZOG’s forward strategy has become increasingly transparent. Earlier concern over direction following the announcing of its Romanian and PPP plays has been eased by the more recent moves to lift its interest in local front-end exploration.”

McDouall Stuart said the New Zealand market’s aversion to pricing in exploration upside presented investors with an entry opportunity for a potential short-term return.

The broker said that while its valuation of NZOG’s existing assets remained unchanged at $NZ1.88 ($A1.55) per share, the results of the four-well program could either cut this by up to NZ50c or add up to $2 per share. Shares of the dual-listed company are currently trading on the ASX at about $A1.45 and on the NZX at about $NZ1.74.

NZOG is involved in at least three of the wells scheduled to be drilled this summer by the semi-submersible Kan Tan IV rig – Hoki-1 in licence PEP 38401 and at least two Tui near-field appraisal wells. It will also be involved in the more northern Albacore-1 well to be drilled by the jack-up Ensco Rig 107 for PEP 38491 operator Westech Energy and Mighty River Power.

McDouall Stuart said it was not as upbeat about Hoki-1 as was AWE, which believes the oil-prone prospect could contain up to 300 million barrels of crude.

“Although the Hoki JV is upbeat about prospects ... the area has been drilled only once before (the 1970s Tane-1 well encountered subcommercial hydrocarbons) and is regarded as a wildcat, therefore carrying a relatively low probability of success (POS) of about 10 per cent.”

However, all three Tui well options – Tui-Northeast-1, Tui-Southwest-1 and Tui-Southeast-1 – were extensions of the already-producing Tui area and as such had a substantially higher POS.

“On our estimated POS for each well, we calculate there to be an 80 per cent likelihood that at least one well will succeed over the program ... and consider it reasonable to assume that one will be commercial.”

But McDouall Stuart said the chinks in NZO’s armour were its non-core assets, Pan Pacific and the Pike River Coal Company.

“It remains unclear what NZOG’s end game is (and even was) with its PPP play.”

While the value of Pan Pacific had increased substantially since being acquired (from less than NZ30c to about 60c), it appeared NZOG was now behind the eight ball as the proportion of PPP it did not hold was valued in excess of $NZ320 million, “well beyond NZOG’s own means”.

And the Pan Pacific board, including directors with substantial blocking holdings, had to date shown no interest in any alignment with NZOG.

“Furthermore, at current pricing we consider PPP to be significantly overpriced,” added McDouall Stuart.

The PEP 38401 partners are operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (50%), OMV (21.25%), Todd Energy (18.75%) and New Zealand Oil & Gas (10%).

The Tui partners are operator AWE (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), NZOG (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

The Kupe partners are operator Origin Energy (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), NZOG (15%) and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

[Nitaa]

NZ Farming Systems AGM for 15th Oct. Some points of note.

4. Resolution Not Supported by the Board

To consider and, if thought fit, to elect as a Director
of the Company, Paul Grogan who has been nominated by
ST & CJ Bell Limited.

He has provided the following biographical details. He is an Auckland based private equity investor, specialising in risk assessment and reward, with farming, forestry and primary industry interests and experience. He has a Graduate Degree and Diploma from Massey University.

For the reasons outlined below, the Board does not support resolution 3 and recommends that shareholders vote AGAINST the resolution to elect Paul Grogan.


(See Explanatory Notes)
Why the Board does not support Resolution 3

A current non independent Director, Samuel Richard Maling, will retire by rotation at the annual meeting, and has indicated that he will not stand for re-election. To fill the vacancy arising from Samuel Richard Maling’s retirement, the Board has not had the opportunity to undertake a standard succession planning process to review the experience, expertise and skill sets required of the Board, and identify and nominate potential candidates in a professional and structured manner. Prospective Director candidates should be fully researched for their professional experience, expertise, independence, cultural fit and references. Such a process balances the introduction of new skills to the Board while maintaining sufficient continuity, and ensures that shareholders are given the opportunity to appoint the most appropriately qualified and experienced candidates to the Board.

The Board would prefer to undertake a standard succession planning process in the best interests of the Company, and in which this Director nominee could participate. The Board also notes that other potential candidates did not put their names forward for election given that they were aware of the intended succession planning process. In addition, the Board proposes to consider Mr. Grogan’s nomination as part of this process.

[Unicorn]

Paul Grogan is standing for directorship of NZO at the upcoming AGM on the 28th. Today i received a letter from him regarding this matter. I have just retruned emailed him for more info and will give a detailed comments when i hear from him. In the meantime has everyone else got a letter? Fish if you are reading did you get one?
Until later

Hi Digger

I received the same letter today. I can't say I was impressed.

While I would like the current funds to have been utilised, I am happier for them to remain unused rather than to be used on a project that does not stack up. To say that many opportunities have been squandered while the Board procrastinated, but without giving any examples is quite ridiculous.

I am not generally in favour of making more use of derivatives, as I see that as more likely to benefit outsiders (the money parasites) rather than shareholders.

The statement that the Board is arrogant to strongly endorse the reappointment of the current directors is quite peculiar. If the Board did anything other than to strongly endorse sitting members then I would be most upset that they had not acted to replace them earlier.

I am not sure that the letter shows a great understanding of the PPP transaction and of the $50 put options - but the again I do not understand all of the facts in these areas myself.

All in all the letter had very little substance, but set the candidate up to be a hostile addition to the Board - which I do not believe to be in shareholders interests. There seemed enough to contradict the claim to be a strategic and logical thinker, and I would have expected much more care to be taken to avoid this in a letter of this type.

If the company was not performing, then I would be somewhat more interested in looking towards a change in personnel. But I would look for a candidate who showed more concrete proposals and who was employing a more appropriate strategy to harmoniously join the team.

[fish]

[QUOTE=digger;276471]Paul Grogan is standing for directorship of NZO at the upcoming AGM on the 28th. Today i received a letter from him regarding this matter. I have just retruned emailed him for more info and will give a detailed comments when i hear from him. In the meantime has everyone else got a letter? Fish if you are reading did you get one?
Hi digger ,

All my mail regarding nzo goes to my margin lender and then is forwarded to me . I havnt received anything from Paul Grogan yet .
My gut reaction is that I am supportive towards the current board . They seem to have made excellent decisions in the most important arena-exploration .
My only gripe is that it was clear to almost everyone that the us/nz exchange rate had gone to far-and better use of this windfall-such as a special dividend -could have been made .But this is a very small point and no board can be expected to be perfect for everyone


Unicorn makes a wise reply .

[Nitaa]

I havent received this letter but clearly it was sent out to the main shareholders only.

His approach seems to be of looking for opportunities for himself other corporate raiders with a certain type of agenda. It wont be good for the general shareholder.

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=digger;276471]
My only gripe is that it was clear to almost everyone that the us/nz exchange rate had gone to far-and better use of this windfall-such as a special dividend -could have been made .But this is a very small point and no board can be expected to be perfect for everyone
I know this has been debated before but in essence nzo is already hedging the currency. If they converted all revenue at a particular price to $NZ then when they have to pay for exploration and other costs that are in US currency then they have to pay a premium to convert it back.

I think they have got the balance about right. Now that the $NZ is tipping 75 US cents it is now nearing the all time high. So whether we keep climbing or retract no one knows for sure but there will always be swings and round-a-bouts.

[Mr Tommy]

Quote - although NZOG appeared to have “snookered itself” regarding significantly increasing its 14.9% stake in, or taking control of, fellow Tui oil fields partner and dual-listed company Pan Pacific Petroleum.

For the Tui wells, the Umuroa is contracted out until 2022, so Tui is going to be producing possibly for another 12 years or so. Plus some extra drilling over this summer could add to that. Add in PPPs other ventures, and the doubling in PPP share price since NOG bought them, the investment seems to have been pretty good to me.
If NOG was in a rush to get hold of their money then maybe they would be snookered, but with plenty of time on their side, and loads of cash in the bank, I dont think so.

[Chris Roberts]

i must congranulate the nzo media pr team for pulling off such a great stunt!
the monday before the dividend went ex the media released a report claiming if all 4 wells come in nzo sp could go up by $2 and the sp rose;),yesterday the same media released on that day was released again,and the sp rose;)....
if they continue to release this same news every monday it wont be long before it hits $2:)

While it would be nice to take the credit, I should point out that NZOG had nothing to do with either of the recent newspaper stories. A number of broker analysts have come to similiar conclusions about the potential impact of our summer drilling programme and have put out research notes. Those notes have been seen by the media and stories have been written. NZOG was not contacted for comment at any point.

[fabs]

Re:P. Grogan, from whom i too have gotten notice, Ditto to all of the above.
Yes he is also trying to get on the board of the NZXS under similar circumstances.
Not my cup of tea and as a single voice against the present team totally superfluous.

[digger]

To Chris Roberts ----Public Affairs Manager NZOG


Chris i am asking you for this comment here on sharetrader as it is a public matter reqarding all NZO holders as opposed to a private email.
Now that Paul Grogan and a Mr Dick are both putting forward their names for directorship of NZO i am seeking the history of their involvment with this company and their holding in it.So my question is as elected directors have to reveal their holdings and history with NZO when do candidates for nomination have to reveal theirs? If it is [and it should be] on accepting nomination can that information be released here for public knowledge on sharetrader?
In the meantime i have asked Paul Grogan for this info and 4 other points but so far have just got back that he is busy and will reply in a few days.The month is ticking by so we need this info.

[Chris Roberts]

Charles, I am not aware of any requirement for nominees for a Board position to declare the details of any shareholding. I note, however, that both Mr Dick and Mr Grogan provided biographical details for inclusion in the Notice of Meeting. Mr Dick described himself as "a longtime investor in... publicly listed companies" and Mr Grogan stated that he was a "large shareholder in NZOG for approx. 20 years".

[digger]

Charles, I am not aware of any requirement for nominees for a Board position to declare the details of any shareholding. I note, however, that both Mr Dick and Mr Grogan provided biographical details for inclusion in the Notice of Meeting. Mr Dick described himself as "a longtime investor in... publicly listed companies" and Mr Grogan stated that he was a "large shareholder in NZOG for approx. 20 years".
Thanks Chris for replying so quickly. I am aware what you stated but it really does not give the info exactally as i seek it,or as it must be post successful election.So by law only Mr Dick and Mr Grogan can release this info. .Mr Dicks long term invester statement could well mean an invester using someone elses money,and Mr Grogan needs some numbers to guage the level of what he sees as large.This also needs to clarfy if it is personal committment or on behalf of clients. But thanks anyways.

[peterfindlay]

[QUOTE=mattyroo;276477]Article in today's PNN...

The broker said that while its valuation of NZOG’s existing assets remained unchanged at $NZ1.88 ($A1.55) per share, the results of the four-well program could either cut this by up to NZ50c or add up to $2 per share. Shares of the dual-listed company are currently trading on the ASX at about $A1.45 and on the NZX at about $NZ1.74.

This is incorrectly quoted. The potential downside was stated as 5c a share, not 50c.

[COLIN]

[QUOTE=mattyroo;276477]Article in today's PNN...





Peter: I'm racking my poor brain as to what PNN stands for? Palmerston North News?

[COLIN]

Thanks Chris for replying so quickly. I am aware what you stated but it really does not give the info exactally as i seek it,or as it must be post successful election.So by law only Mr Dick and Mr Grogan can release this info. .Mr Dicks long term invester statement could well mean an invester using someone elses money,and Mr Grogan needs some numbers to guage the level of what he sees as large.This also needs to clarfy if it is personal committment or on behalf of clients. But thanks anyways.

Digger: I believe you have raised a fair point; it would be helpful to know the extent to which candidates aspiring to Board seats have "skin in the game" as it were. One can always check the register, of course, which is a public document, but that involves trouble and expense, and would not necessarily reveal the full story, e.g. it would not reveal shares held via nominees, or other companies etc.

As to the NZO situation: I have voted for the existing Directors ("Better the devil you know", etc!). From what I can piece together of the new names that have come forward I don't see much that would necessarily equip them for the task in hand. That being said, I do like to see people "having a go" as I believe there is too much "Board self-perpetuation" in publicly listed companies - existing Board members often tend to bring in people of their own ilk who will be tame, and compliant with the existing culture, when sometimes a good shake-up would be better. But, don't rock the boat just for the mere sake of it.

[fabs]

Ahmm,
Share prices of NZOG,PPP and PRC all raising leading up to AGMs, hope they can sustain those levels after, without significant other news.

[Nitaa]

In all of this i see iit as a simple analysis In order to be voted onto the board he needs to sell himself. If he is decides to surround himself with secrecy then shareholders will vote accordingly. Clearly he is struggling in this department.

I see very little on what he has achieved, what his goals are etc.

discl. he wont get my vote

[peterfindlay]

[QUOTE=peterfindlay;276667]

Peter: I'm racking my poor brain as to what PNN stands for? Palmerston North News?

Petroleum News. The key point to remember is that McDouall Stuart (MS) have prepared and produced the research. PNN have merely reported it. The MS research is consistent with, and builds on, the earlier work prepared by Forsyth Barr, that again highlighted the significant potential upside associated with the upcoming drilling programme. The market unequivocally likes what it is had heard, effectively endorsing the analysis of Forsyth Barr & McDouall Stuart. McDouall Stuart have consistently produced well thought out reasoning associated with their analysis of NZOG.

Kupe, through reserve reassessment, and earlier than signalled commercial production, could provide additional upside to the SP, as could the equity investment in Pike River Coal.

[COLIN]

Petroleum News. The key point to remember is that McDouall Stuart (MS) have prepared and produced the research. PNN have merely reported it. The MS research is consistent with, and builds on, the earlier work prepared by Forsyth Barr, that again highlighted the significant potential upside associated with the upcoming drilling programme. The market unequivocally likes what it is had heard, effectively endorsing the analysis of Forsyth Barr & McDouall Stuart. McDouall Stuart have consistently produced well thought out reasoning associated with their analysis of NZOG.

Kupe, through reserve reassessment, and earlier than signalled commercial production, could provide additional upside to the SP, as could the equity investment in Pike River Coal.
Thanks, Peter. Sound points.

[digger]

Tonight i finally got a reply to my email to Paul Grogan sent last thursday.To his credit he does have a long history in the oil investing market and we both had shares in old Southern Pet way back in ages gone now.
I sent him back another email tonight saying i would not be supporting his bid for what is really several reason but first because i do not in the slightest support NZO fooling around with our money on derivatives. About 1.6 US trillion in writedowns and losses have already occurred by experts thinking they know what they are doing so in no way could i support this. I would argue with GOD against NZO using derivatives.
Paul Grogan's point that NZO was slow to take out PPP is hindsight.I alone on sharetrader it seems have bragging rights to critise NZO action and i am not complaining. This is so as i increased my holding exactally when others are saying NZO should have.Now in hindsight i should have done so even more. But how was i to know that PPPV would strike oil.How was NZO to know? Hindsight.
Pauls comments about how much money we lost on leaving money in US dollars is sadly correct and well documented and discussed here many times.Again i have to say hindsight as i do not know of any public forum where Paul put forward these views when the dollar was back at 50 cents and John Keys telling us it would fall to the mid 40's. Prior to this last 6 months we made money on foreign exchange. This is like the Dairy company years ago.Made heaps for a few years then lost all of it and more in subjent times plus paying the experts for losing money. We do not want to go there.
I did not get much of a reply from Mr Grogan as to attending and addressing past AGM's and or sharing his views about NZO in public forums.Putting forward your views prior to history running its coa-rse is not always a wise thing going by some of the corners i have painted myself into,but keeping silent until history is fact does allow you to be 100% correct.Hence most of Pauls letter uses the advantage of hingsight and the only future he is pushing is not my choosing.
On another matter i do not know a thing about Mr Dick,except what is on his nomination form.Received no emails or any form of info.

[friedegg]

boy digger you certainly looked into it! i just ticked the "no vote part" cause it said the board didnt approve of them..i did tick the going to the pressy at waipuna stadium, so does anyone know if sausage rolls and drinks are provided at the pressy or is it just at the grand agm in welly?

[Casa del Energia]

Who really understands derivatives - Huh? And wouldn't you rather your surgeon had full comprehension of surgical techniques rather than derivatives. Ditto - I feel comfortable with an oil company concentrating on geology rather than abstract financial instruments.
There is nothing wrong with concentrating on the knitting.

[Nitaa]

Tonight i finally got a reply to my email to Paul Grogan sent last thursday.To his credit he does have a long history in the oil investing market and we both had shares in old Southern Pet way back in ages gone now. I wouldnt give him much credit there. Many people including myself invested there many moons ago

Paul Grogan's point that NZO was slow to take out PPP is hindsight. [too much after the fact. Also how would he know that nzo could successfully take over PPP. And if they could how much would they have to pay to take over it? Throw in the mix of a blocking stake as well. [/b]

Pauls comments about how much money we lost on leaving money in US dollars is sadly correct and well documented and discussed here many times.Again i have to say hindsight as i do not know of any public forum where Paul put forward these views when the dollar was back at 50 cents and John Keys telling us it would fall to the mid 40's. Prior to this last 6 months we made money on foreign exchange. This is like the Dairy company years ago.Made heaps for a few years then lost all of it and more in subjent times plus paying the experts for losing money. Exactly

He appears to be a vulture and an opportunist.

[digger]

He appears to be a vulture and an opportunist.

This underlines my biggest concern. Mr Grogan has not shared at AGM's or in public forums[by his own admition in email] his interest in NZO over the years. Now his biggest problem will be to get us all past his seemly interest in NZO cash pile. His two referees are a Investment Manager and a Head of Fixed Interest. Money managers that would just love to control the show if somehow they could just get in a position to call the shots.
NZO and all NZO holders will just have to get used to the fact that you never hear from some sectors of the population when company finances are at rock bottom but they suddenly turn up when the cash piles up a little.
Guess you all know how i will be voting.

[COLIN]

Its very rare for "outsiders" to succeed in breaking into established boards without the backing of the institutions and other major shareholders, which I very much doubt you will see in this case. However, in the interests of shareholder democracy, I applaud those who are willing to step forward and perhaps challenge the complacency which can build up amongst the "establishment".

[arjay]

A problem with paying MP's huge salaries is that it attracts people more interested in their wallet than the public. Similarly, once a company builds a huge bank balance it attracts the wrong species altogether.

[troyvdh]

just curious....can anyone who sold today post as to why they did.....

[777]

Just not enough buyers around I think.

[troyvdh]

..as a reason for selling....?

[friedegg]

cause nzo has lost millions all of a sudden as the result of ppp farmin into a venture really late in the piece and its turned to custard

[remy]

wow nzo been really hit hard, lost 11c in the last few days!!

will keep on holding

[fabs]

Why the panic? Smoke and mirrors stuff.
They lost something they never had.

[Mingeathinaikos]

Why the panic? Smoke and mirrors stuff.
They lost something they never had.

No panic - just removing the premium that was associated or directly due to the 'something they never had'....???

[zorba]

Oil price looking robust ...... should support NZOG's share price today !!


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_X9

[friedegg]

pounce nzo cause nobody in the ppp share register trust thier management anymore and they may sell easily

[sideline]

pounce nzo cause nobody in the ppp share register trust thier management anymore and they may sell easily

Well, according to some recent research report PPP are the most overpriced stock (by to oil reserves)
and that statement is probably still true now after the considerable fall. The shares NZO picked up in the
20 to low 30c range were a bargain, but I do not think acquiring more at the current price would be prudent
use of its cash reserves. Pity they didn't sell some at the top.

[the machine]

see genesis keeping kupe but sold all other non core assets -wonder if this was the large aquisition nzo missed out on.

M

[Snapper]

This underlines my biggest concern. Mr Grogan has not shared at AGM's or in public forums[by his own admition in email] his interest in NZO over the years. Now his biggest problem will be to get us all past his seemly interest in NZO cash pile. His two referees are a Investment Manager and a Head of Fixed Interest. Money managers that would just love to control the show if somehow they could just get in a position to call the shots.
NZO and all NZO holders will just have to get used to the fact that you never hear from some sectors of the population when company finances are at rock bottom but they suddenly turn up when the cash piles up a little.
Guess you all know how i will be voting.

Is this the same Mr Grogan who also put his hand up (but didn't get elected) for the Farming Systems Uruguay board?

[Nitaa]

Is this the same Mr Grogan who also put his hand up (but didn't get elected) for the Farming Systems Uruguay board?Yes he is. He will also use the same spin saying how nzo destroyed shareholder wealth by not buying PPP and hedging the currency. He will also fail to get elected.

[Chippie]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/business/2953806/Kupe-offshore-project-ready-for-gas

[the machine]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/business/2953806/Kupe-offshore-project-ready-for-gas


thanks for posting that chippie

M

[Mr Tommy]

Anyone have any info on when Ensco 107 will be moving to drill Albacore? The drilling at Maari has been completed earlier this month.

[the machine]

Anyone have any info on when Ensco 107 will be moving to drill Albacore? The drilling at Maari has been completed earlier this month.

once operations completed then its a matter of waiting for the weather window to jack down.

expect would have to be extremely lucky to shift straight to Albacore location - remember Ensco 107 was stuck in Picton [I think] for months after drilling Kupe.

M

[Chris Roberts]

The Maari partners are still using the rig and are currently not expected to be finished with it until early November.

[the machine]

yesterday i topped up my nzo holding with 5,800 shares, being proceeds fromselling last 20,000 ppp.

now ready for the drills, kupe, pike delivering some good news and more nzo business going forward. its going to be an exciting next few months

M

[Mr Tommy]

The Maari partners are still using the rig and are currently not expected to be finished with it until early November.

Thanks Chris.
So it could be drilling right thru the christmas period. Hopefully santa will bring a nice surprise.


On another note, oil has just gone up to $81 today, highest in over a year.
But the NZD rise will be offsetting most of the benefit.

[Arbitrage]

Yes with the upcoming drilling with its associated anticipation, plus the increasing price of oil supporting existing production, the stars seem to be aligning for nzog.

[LJB]

Yes with the upcoming drilling with its associated anticipation, plus the increasing price of oil supporting existing production, the stars seem to be aligning for nzog.

And wouldn't it be good to see the PRC star come into alignment too to ice the cake.

[Nitaa]

And wouldn't it be good to see the PRC star come into alignment too to ice the cake.Some way to go.. This star is the slowest moving one. If she does ever line up then sparks will fly

[Sideshow Bob]

Sorry, I have been out of the country of late - when does Kupe come on stream???

Cheers

[the machine]

Sorry, I have been out of the country of late - when does Kupe come on stream???

Cheers



work on late nov

M

[777]

NZO needs to issue some more rights. We need some trading action. Getting dull and boring at the moment. :)