NZ Oil & Gas (NZO) [Archive] - Page 35

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Hoop

23-10-2009, 11:50 AM

NZO needs to issue some more rights. We need some trading action. Getting dull and boring at the moment. :)

Shhhhh..777 ....its quietly going in the right direction...don't wake it up

Methinks its time to put the "please do not disturb" sign out.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nzonz21102009.png

manxman

23-10-2009, 01:37 PM

We need some trading action. Getting dull and boring at the moment. :)

Before Christmas ENSCO107 will be boring, and Kan Tan IV will be boring all summer. Lie back and enjoy.

Mr Tommy

23-10-2009, 02:03 PM

Just read the Kan Tan IV is still drilling the first well for Origin over in Oz, called Trefoil-2. As of yesterday its at 2500 of planned 3200m. They then have to drill Rockhopper-1.
So we might be looking at the new year before the rig is here and we see any action on Hoki.
Hopefully Albacore will be completed before year end.

shasta

28-10-2009, 12:34 PM

Oh dear...

NZO losses another $17m in FX losses (revenue for the 1/4 was just $20m)

I see $50m received in borrowings too?

Cashflow report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=326811

Activities Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=326813

Sehnsucht888

28-10-2009, 02:27 PM

In the shareholder report, there is a page showing Taranaki assets and prospects.

PEP 38483 (Aihe and Bahamas) NZOG Interest 18.9%
New 2D seismic was shot over part of this permit in late 2008. This has been processed and is being evaluated. The permit contains the Aihe prospect and a newly identified biogenic gas prospect, which has been named Bahamas. Assessment is ongoing. The permit conditions require a decision on drilling an exploration well to be made by
December 2009.

There is a huge blob in AIHE & Bahamas - I guess the newly identified biogenic gas prospect. What does this actually mean? Its twice the size of all the rest combined.
Seems this is quite a pressing item, as don't they need to decide if they are going to drill this year or not, otherwise loose it (decision only this year - not the drill). And barely a mention at the AGM....

777

28-10-2009, 04:17 PM

Did any thing major arise from the AGM?. Even a report on the quality/quantity of the sausage rolls would suffice.

QOH

28-10-2009, 04:42 PM

Did any thing major arise from the AGM?. Even a report on the quality/quantity of the sausage rolls would suffice.
Yes did you get another little bottle of oil this year? I tossed a coin to decide between playing golf and going to the AGM.

777

28-10-2009, 04:45 PM

Yes did you get another little bottle of oil this year? I tossed a coin to decide between playing golf and going to the AGM.

You must have tee'd off early if you are back now.

QOH

28-10-2009, 05:04 PM

You must have tee'd off early if you are back now.
I'm only a 9 holer, not a real golfer. 9am tee off.

Corporate

28-10-2009, 05:07 PM

Oh dear...

NZO losses another $17m in FX losses (revenue for the 1/4 was just $20m)

Ouch! Not a very good looking cashflow report for the quarter.

Sehnsucht888

28-10-2009, 05:54 PM

No Oil this year... Some pastries and coffee, but I couldn't stay around to check for sausage rolls.

Pretty un earth shattering. Mostly a reword of what was in the publications, and very little in detail to the questions - pretty much as you would expect I suppose. They can't suddenly come up with lots of detail not previously provided.

Digger stood up - he felt obliged to, but nothing really to say.
Andrew Stewart stood up also, and asked a number of questions with little actual content in the answers - see above.

The move into Romania had some more information, or I hadn't picked it up before. I think it was a reasonable summary of events, and gave some dates for that venture.

In terms of FX hedging, and what is planned with Pike, what have they been doing, that was all the same old story.
FX - expenses are in USD, so may as well keep it there, they aren't FX experts, and aren't going to speculate.
Pike - will do what they see as best for the shareholders, for now thats sitting on it.
Doing - evaluating things. Nothing worth spending serious cash on - they want top assets, not riskier cheaper speculative options. So the cash just sits there.

Lots of upcoming drills.
The big prospect Barque got asked about. They have 40% now, but looks likely they will farm out some of that to get others involved on the costs I guess.
I should have asked about Bahama's but didn't... rats.. That hold many questions...

shasta

28-10-2009, 06:00 PM

No Oil this year... Some pastries and coffee, but I couldn't stay around.

Pretty un earth shattering. Mostly a reword of what was in the publications, and very little in detail to the questions - pretty much as you would expect I suppose. They can't suddenly come up with lots of detail not previously provided.

Digger stood up - he felt obliged to, but nothing really to say.
Andrew Stewart stood up also, and asked a number of questions with little actual content in the answers - see above.

The move into Romania had some more information, or I hadn't picked it up before. I think it was a reasonable summary of events, and gave some dates for that venture.

In terms of FX hedging, and what is planned with Pike, what have they been doing, that was all the same old story.
FX - expenses are in USD, so may as well keep it there, they aren't FX experts, and aren't going to speculate.
Pike - will do what they see as best for the shareholders, for now thats sitting on it.
Doing - evaluating things. Nothing worth spending serious cash on - they want top assets, not riskier cheaper speculative options. So the cash just sits there.

Lots of upcoming drills.
The big prospect Barque got asked about. They have 40% now, but looks likely they will farm out some of that to get others involved on the costs I guess.
I should have asked about Bahama's but didn't... rats.. That hold many questions...

Um, by NOT addressing the FX issues they are speculating!

How many qualified accountants do they have working there?

That's such a weak cop out, & i'm glad i'm out of NZO.

That's what, around $40m down the gurglar in 2 quarters...

Sorry but that's really poor cash management, & if shareholders are happy with this, try converting the money lost into cps, & see what "dividend" you've been relieved of.

I suspose it was more snouts in the trough again at the AGM, with more cheap shares for "performance" was there?

Nitaa

28-10-2009, 06:37 PM

Um, by NOT addressing the FX issues they are speculating!

How many qualified accountants do they have working there?

That's such a weak cop out, & i'm glad i'm out of NZO.

That's what, around $40m down the gurglar in 2 quarters...

Sorry but that's really poor cash management, & if shareholders are happy with this, try converting the money lost into cps, & see what "dividend" you've been relieved of.

I suspose it was more snouts in the trough again at the AGM, with more cheap shares for "performance" was there?We have been over this before and i disagree with your thinking. In one sense you are correct that they have been hammered with the fx. In essence they are hedging anyway byt having money in different currencies. i.e. $USD and $NZD.

Since the money markets are a zero game, if they pay some supposed expert to play the fx then they may have been worse off. Seems like they are damned if they do and damned if they dont. Remember John Key predicted the $NZ to go to 40 cents. He also became bloody wealthy through x didnt he. Warren Buffet got creamed to the tune of a few billion gambling of the fx about 3 years ago.

Sorry Shasta, you are way wrong on this matter.

bermuda

28-10-2009, 08:02 PM

upside_umop

28-10-2009, 08:21 PM

Bermuda,

They are hedging in that they hold USD and the majority of their operating expenses and exploration costs are denominated in USD. If they hold NZD and the USD appreciates, its costs relatively more in NZD to operate...by having the arrangement they have now, it 'hedges' them so they dont win or lose...(in the sense of the oil game - their primary business).

They could hedge in the way of options. Options however, as you know, options are you usually written by financial institutions and they, the banks, in the long run usually make the money (they wouldnt write them otherwise would they?). Unless that institution happens to be run by a bunch of 'pure' academics who think they can forecast volatility better than market...cough cough scholes, merton et al..cough cough LTCM.

I'm quite close to starting a competition up. Who can guess the future rate movement one month in advance...for 12 months. There should be a few keen fellows on here who want to participate, given they're so open about their expertise in forecasting. Could be fun, right? I think Nita mentioned a while back he'd be keen to back some odds :cool:

shasta

28-10-2009, 08:37 PM

We have been over this before and i disagree with your thinking. In one sense you are correct that they have been hammered with the fx. In essence they are hedging anyway byt having money in different currencies. i.e. $USD and $NZD.

Since the money markets are a zero game, if they pay some supposed expert to play the fx then they may have been worse off. Seems like they are damned if they do and damned if they dont. Remember John Key predicted the $NZ to go to 40 cents. He also became bloody wealthy through x didnt he. Warren Buffet got creamed to the tune of a few billion gambling of the fx about 3 years ago.

Sorry Shasta, you are way wrong on this matter.

You are completely miss quoting me on this Nita

NZO say they don't speculate....

I say they have done NOTHING in 6 months!

The trend of the USD/NZD has been quite evident to ANYONE who has looked at it over the last 6 - 9 months.

To simply accept the fact they have lost close to there whole revenue in 6 months due to FX losses is unacceptable, & to say "we don't speculate" is either plain ignorant or borderline incompetent.

They lost $22m last quarter & simply have chosen to look the other way, again losing $17m more this quarter. :confused:

Now the USD/NZD is much higher than it's historical range & may well start to "correct", but my contention is by doing nothing they are costing there shareholders money.

It's NOT management's cash, it's the shareholders

If you're happy with this practice fair enough, but as an Accountant i find this absolutely unbelievable.

I've said my piece now :eek:

percy

28-10-2009, 08:41 PM

the US$ is the currency of the oil industry.nzog sells oil in US$.
Drilling rigs and costs are all US$ so makes sense to have your cash in that
currency.
at tonight,s presentation david the ceo, who has worked in romania,
said he has some ideas he would like to look at ,without a lot of cost to
nzog.he felt the state owned oil company was using outdated
russian equipment,.

fish

28-10-2009, 08:55 PM

Have just seen the new look nzo website

David Salisburys address was succinct but clarified a few points for me .

e.g-Tui oil has become a very well regarded product. We are very pleased with the outcome of a competitive process which has seen Shell in Australia take a forward sale contract for a large portion of Tui production in the 2010 calendar year. The terms are favourable, with a premium being paid above the regional Tapis crude benchmark.

The Tui area oil fields have already been a spectacular success and there is considerable upside potential. There are a number of attractive near-field prospects and at least two of them will be drilled this summer.

If the drilling is successful, any new discoveries could potentially be quickly developed through the existing facilities.

The new format and colours of the website is refreshing .

I like the recent analysts valuation of the current sp of nzo.
A successful drill ,Kupe successfully comissioned , prc producing-all quite likely to happen -could really set the sp off

Sehnsucht888

28-10-2009, 09:08 PM

SS,
When you say "they aren't FX experts, and aren't going to speculate" I take it you mean that NZOG have taken appropriate steps to Hegde.( i.e they are not going to speculate/gamble on currency movements )

Is that what you meant? or did you mean they don't hedge. Sorry to be pedantic but I am interested in this.

Anyone else got a comment on NZOG's FX policy ?

Sorry if I wasn't clear or correct in my terms. Basically, my understanding is, they did no actual hedging, that they will not do FX conversions to move funds between currenecies with the aim of preseriving capital.
The 50 Miliiion draw down in NZD was done - in favourable terms according to DS - to cover tax costs, and the dividend leaving USD as they were. (I don't quite see the logic behind the div being part of a loan when they could have converted USD, I must admit..). The stance, as previously stated is to leave funds in USD as that is what their revenue and expenses are in. Perhaps a bit naive. But if they got a suitable candidate to invest in they didn't want to have to move funds back, and get clipped both ways.. Perhaps they tried to hard to be ready with USD for a purchase.

Not Andy D, but the other guy after a board seat seemed focused on this area as reason to vote him in. Seemed to plug his worth as a currency speculator and implied he could have saved the company big $.

Hindsight is a great thing. Some share prices in March were 100% up 2 months later. Some from June the same 3 months (some much more). I should have put loads into them, but there has always been pessamism / doubt on the recovery, and another big drop had been predicted. It didn't happen, (yet), so I can say I should have been all in in those specs, but who rarelly was to know. IF NZO had converted at 60c in Oct, thinking that was it, then it kept going down, they would have been crucified. Picking the bottom isn't easy, and there is no way they could have got conversions purfect. They may not have lost so much, but would have needed good advice, and I don't recall seeing any predictions of this...
rant rant rant....

I am suprised they didn''t bring some of it back. But as mentioned, maybe they expected to use more during the GFC, when as DS said they expected better pickings...

Unicorn

28-10-2009, 09:46 PM

I found it an interesting and useful AGM. The issue of dividends did not come up at all, so I guess most shareholders feel the Board set the dividend at just the right level. There was not as much excitement as I would have expected regarding the summer exploration campaign. The handling of currency was probably the main point of contention.

As usual NZO Board Members and staff were readily available for quite some time after the meeting to informally discuss a wide range of matters. These are very approachable people, with a lot of detailed knowledge of the many projects that the company is involved with. I found this time extremely valuable in gaining a better insight into what the company has been doing.

There appear to be a number of new initiatives under way that cannot be announced at this stage - some may never come to fruition, both others should become clear over the next year. It is clear that NZO does not see itself as just a passive financial supporter of the projects they participate in - they use their considerable in house expertise to continually look at ways of improving value from all projects.

It looks like all of the $US holdings will eventually be spent in $US - they will probably never be converted to $NZ. Kupe will provide a new stream of $NZ income, to cover $NZ denominated costs (tax, royalties, dividends etc). Thus the real value loss due to exchange rate movements is very much less than it appears on paper (as the $NZ value of the cash holdings reduces, there is a related lessening in the $NZ value of future costs). And when the $NZ value, which I see as being supported by borrowing demand rather than by underlying fundamentals, corrects itself some of the paper losses will be negated.

Major investors seem to have a strong interest in NZO remaining an oil play, rather than a hybrid involving oil and currency trading where they have more difficulty understanding what is driving company value. My own opinion is that some of the $US holding should have been repatriated earlier, to cover $NZ costs.

The Board has maintained a commendable degree of financial discipline, in spite of having large amounts of cash available. It is clear that the cash strapped days of just a few years ago are still fresh in the minds of the Board, and they are acutely aware of the value of a dollar. Drilling rigs are being contracted at realistic rates - far below the peaks that were being charged around a year ago.

The Albacore prospect looks very exciting indeed. NZO has a 40% share, which is well above their normal limit of around 20%. But this is quite a shallow target and the ENSCO107 is close by, so it will be a relatively cheap drill. If the first well has any sort of success, there are at least a couple of other identified targets within the permit. Success in this permit could be extremely valuable to NZO - it has three times the share of any successful find here compared to Tui. We should get the initial well results before Christmas. If Albacore is successful, NZO could be faced with considerable expenditure to develop the field and put a new FPSO in place. The Board members I spoke to would love to face that challenge.

The new Tui exploration wells could lead to development wells being drilled and tied back to the Umuroa within 18 months, at relatively low cost. There appears to be a quiet confidence that further oil will be found within this permit - hopefully this summer will be successful.

PRC should get some indication from Liberty Harbor on new terms for their bonds in the next week or two. It is unlikely that Liberty Harbor will provide an extension as a goodwill gesture - some degree of cost is inevitable. It looks like NZO expect to offload their PRC holding in a year or two, once the mine is in production and the value has become more apparent. The Chairman did explain to a questioner that the PRC share price reaching $2.50 did not mean that there was an opportunity for NZO to offload its 30% holding at that price (which I thought was stating the obvious, but sometimes question time at an AGM is like that).

777

28-10-2009, 09:52 PM

You have done well team. A lot of typing by some of you. Very much appreciated. Thank you.

Nitaa

28-10-2009, 09:53 PM

You are completely miss quoting me on this Nita

NZO say they don't speculate....

I say they have done NOTHING in 6 months!

The trend of the USD/NZD has been quite evident to ANYONE who has looked at it over the last 6 - 9 months.

To simply accept the fact they have lost close to there whole revenue in 6 months due to FX losses is unacceptable, & to say "we don't speculate" is either plain ignorant or borderline incompetent.

They lost $22m last quarter & simply have chosen to look the other way, again losing $17m more this quarter. :confused:

Now the USD/NZD is much higher than it's historical range & may well start to "correct", but my contention is by doing nothing they are costing there shareholders money.

It's NOT management's cash, it's the shareholders

If you're happy with this practice fair enough, but as an Accountant i find this absolutely unbelievable.

I've said my piece now :eek:I guess we agree to disagree. Upside umop has explained it better than me and he is right on the mark. What happens if the arsee drops out of the kiwi again then you will see nzo make a bundle again and everyone will be singing their praises. How knows where to currency will go and as a matter of fact the experts wont know either. Remember Shasta, if the direction of the currency was that obvious then everyone would do it and make money. I think not.

Another relevant point here is that the price of oil in $NZ terms have changed bugger all over the last 6 months. Effectively the weakening $US has been countered by the rise in oil prices.

To put it in very simple terms, what nzo gain on the swing they will lose on the round-a-bout. It is just a matter of time.

shasta

28-10-2009, 10:02 PM

I guess we agree to disagree. Upside umop has explained it better than me and he is right on the mark. What happens if the arsee drops out of the kiwi again then you will see nzo make a bundle again and everyone will be singing their praises. How knows where to currency will go and as a matter of fact the experts wont know either. Remember Shasta, if the direction of the currency was that obvious then everyone would do it and make money. I think not.

Another relevant point here is that the price of oil in $NZ terms have changed bugger all over the last 6 months. Effectively the weakening $US has been countered by the rise in oil prices.

To put it in very simple terms, what nzo gain on the swing they will lose on the round-a-bout. It is just a matter of time.

Sorry but i have to reply to this. :rolleyes:

You want to pay them very nicely to do NOTHING, with the rationale oh well it'll go back in our favour sometime?

Clearly very little on here know about FX :confused:

I'll stick to investing in companies that create value for shareholders

Nitaa

28-10-2009, 11:09 PM

Sorry but i have to reply to this. :rolleyes:

You want to pay them very nicely to do NOTHING, with the rationale oh well it'll go back in our favour sometime? No i do not want to pay for someone or a company to do nothing. Just as upside umop and myself have alluded to, NZO are effectively hedging the currency by keeping revenue in $US the same and with the intention to use the same currency for projects that require payment in USD. Why exchange it to NZD only to revert it back to USD. Yes they might get lucky or they might get unlucking with the timing. I dont want them to play the game by chance. Hedging the currency as what is common place would be to have the USD fixed at a certain rate for a specific period. Pedominately companies that export only would be inclined to do this so they can protect their income stream at a certain level. It gives them certainty and is just another form of insurance isn't it?

Clearly very little on here know about FX :confused: Tell me or others what we dont know about FX, or more specifically "Hedging a specific currency". What you are saying is that nzo should have hedged the NZD or USD at a certain level. Although i see no point and i fully agree with nzo's approach so far, no one has put their hand up to where nzo should have hedged a specific currency. It seems like too much looking in the rear view mirror and then saying what they should have done.

I'll stick to investing in companies that create value for shareholdersA little bit of ping pong here and nothing wrong with a good debate Shasta.

You have taken my comment out of context based on your post here and replied accordingly.

Should nzo's situation change and by that i mean have no need to spend USD for say 5 or ten years then your arguement has far more merit.

Please explain where i am wrong and as an accountant yourself what you you have done in the same situation. i.e. taken what action at what time and for how long? The second question i have on this is, with the benefit of hindsight what would you have done? i.e. again, what action, at what time and for how long?

This is a bit of a challenge, because now you are going to have to predict the future as well with the currency?

geezy

29-10-2009, 02:06 AM

are the losses in FX a realised loss or just a paper loss?

Nitaa

29-10-2009, 08:21 AM

are the losses in FX a realised loss or just a paper loss?Exactly. Looking overnight they have made over $1m on paper.

impacman

29-10-2009, 08:23 AM

Thanks all for the great summary's and your respective views of the AGM. Much appreciated.

I-man

Casa del Energia

29-10-2009, 10:52 AM

Thanks for all the detailed posts, fellas.

Sehnsucht888

29-10-2009, 11:05 AM

I wish that article in the paper hadn't been so negative... Down 7c as I write. Ouch.

Snapper

29-10-2009, 11:50 AM

Might not just be the newspaper, First NZ Capital came out with an underperform rating today - reluctantly they said.

As a long-term holder, its all just short-term noise, though. PRC's the one real thorn in their side and in hindsight its one investment that they could well have got rid of earlier. Once they can overcome their problems and start meaningful production then their earlier hassles will quickly be forgotten.

One issue that I didn't get the rationale for was borrowing the $50 million when they had the money sitting in the bank. Not something I'd do on an individual level and surprised that they would do it on a corporate level. I always liked the fact that NZO had no debt. Who knows, maybe keeping their powder dry for a decent acquisition??

Sehnsucht888

29-10-2009, 12:06 PM

Snapper - DS (or TR) said the terms where favourable, so I assume a good rate, and worth taking down to mean the had the cash ready to go if something they wanted came up, rather than needing to draw it down later and wait. Thats the only thing I can think of, as I too would have thought bringing some USD back would have been worth while, rather than adding an interest expense on.

Its not that uncommon. Borrow money to invest for greater returns. Just means they have more cash available.

Bixbite

29-10-2009, 12:48 PM

Its not that uncommon. Borrow money to invest for greater returns. Just means they have more cash available.

The company borrowed the NZD money for the NZ expenses.

Mr Tommy

29-10-2009, 12:56 PM

Sehnsucht888

29-10-2009, 12:58 PM

The company borrowed the NZD money for the NZ expenses.

Yes, but in not converting the available USD to cover it, it has left them with more available USD cash - was what I meant to imply.

LJB

29-10-2009, 12:59 PM

Re. NZO hanging on to PRC
To be fair, if PRC had not encountered the problems it had and continues to have in bringing the mine to full production, NZO shareholders would probably very happy with their 30% holding in PRC.

Had NZO bailed out when the ventilation shaft collapsed and the PRC shareprice plummeted from the highs it experienced early on, not only would the PRC shareprice have been hammered further, NZO would not have shared in the modest recovery that has taken place in PRC.

I'm not sure that NZO were in the business taking profits on investments when their shareprice spikes. They had a pretty clear commitment to bringing the mine to full production before bailing out. Its just a bugger that bad luck got in the way.

That's my take on things for what its worth. Probably too simplistic and tolerant but someone has to be.

Disc. Hold both NZO and PRC.

Sehnsucht888

29-10-2009, 01:07 PM

Everyones going on about the Forex, what about the KUPE blowout?

From NZOG site...
"The Final Investment Decision was made in June 2006 based on a budget of NZ$980 million. The project has not been immune from international industry cost pressures and expected development costs have risen by around 20%"

This made the overall cost about $1.2 billion, NZOG share of 15% is $180m

From yesterdays AGM
"As the project approaches completion the operator has advised that the final
cost will be higher than previously estimated. NZOG has contributed NZ$180m
to date and our final bill appears likely to be in the range of NZ$195-$200m"

So the total cost must now be up around $1.34 billion.

Thats NZ$140m extra they just slipped in yesterday.

From the original budget of NZ$980m, the project will be nearly NZ$360m over !!!

Yes, but no surprise, it has been increasing for a while - especially when a lot of the costs where during the phase where commodities where soaring, and thus things costs lots more.

Also remember, that the revenue is also looking much higher than the project was scoped on.

Even if NZO pay NZ$200 Million, they are expecting around USD$50 million a year for the next 10 to 15 years based on 70 dollars a barrel. If there are other finds near by, then they will be even sweeter.

shasta

29-10-2009, 03:39 PM

shasta

29-10-2009, 03:41 PM

are the losses in FX a realised loss or just a paper loss?

The cash has gone down, yes its a loss!

shasta

29-10-2009, 04:28 PM

A little bit of ping pong here and nothing wrong with a good debate Shasta.

You have taken my comment out of context based on your post here and replied accordingly.

Should nzo's situation change and by that i mean have no need to spend USD for say 5 or ten years then your arguement has far more merit.

Please explain where i am wrong and as an accountant yourself what you you have done in the same situation. i.e. taken what action at what time and for how long? The second question i have on this is, with the benefit of hindsight what would you have done? i.e. again, what action, at what time and for how long?

This is a bit of a challenge, because now you are going to have to predict the future as well with the currency?

The contention is about what NZO did/didn't do!

For the record i have previously worked for a private energy company as a Financial Accountant, where we imported goods in 6 different currencies from memory.

So i do have working experience with FX deals both there, & in my time with a large Crown Entity. ;)

Had NZO been monitoring the USD currency at all, they would have noticed around 9 months ago they were sitting on a tidy FX gain.

At the time they had quite a large amount in $US currency, far more than was required for $US denomination expenses, that was the time to crystalize the gains.

Remember they don't speculate in FX & i'm not going to either!

As they don't hedge there oil receipts they get the Tapis spot rate, why not just pay the spot rate for there expenses, if you are ignoring the currency fluctuations you may as well be consistent?

If the $US goes down they pay more for expenses, but get the upside from the increased revenue. (assuming roughly the same FX rate is used)

Should the $US go up, they pay less for expenses, & get the downside from reduced revenue. (as above)

When all converted back into $NZ, there should be little in the way of currency movements to account for, although there are always "timing differences", as it's not an exact science!

The USD/NZD cross rate at ~0.75 is historically alot higher than the normal range, the $US v $NZ is probably closer to "fair value" in the 0.55 - 0.60 range. (these figures are just off the top of my head)

Will 0.75 be the top, hard to say, if the US keeps printing money it could hit 0.80 in the short term, my thinking is that it won't get there, or if it does it won't stay long.

Mid - longer term the USD/NZD should trend back down below 0.60, what path it takes getting there again is more speculation!

There is a large gulf though between NZO saying "we don't speculate", & having proper cash management system & proceedures in place.

For example, Crown Entities are required to hedge 50% of forward cover contracts, this is probably enscribed in the Public Finance Act???

NZO by way of holding $US currency (acquired at more favourable terms in the first place) is diminishing through a lack of cash management.

For a start NZO would earn a higher interest rate on those funds in $NZ, rather than $US, so there is a loss of potential income as well.

Hope that helps explain it!

777

29-10-2009, 05:00 PM

With 20/20 hind sight you are possibly right Shasta but they would be stupid to return US funds to NZ at the current levels. Locking in the loss would not be that smart.

shasta

29-10-2009, 05:40 PM

With 20/20 hind sight you are possibly right Shasta but they would be stupid to return US funds to NZ at the current levels. Locking in the loss would not be that smart.

But by leaving it there to potentially diminish further, would be worst than speculating!

At least they would get a decent return on the cash in $NZ :rolleyes:

But given all that's transpired, they may as well leave it now & hope the FX rate drops in there favour.

As a now ex-shareholder i'm astounded that current shareholders seem either content with or oblivious to this issue?

Nitaa

29-10-2009, 07:00 PM

Shasta. You still havent answered my 2 questions. What would you do now with the benefit of hindsight and what would you have done without the benefit of hindsight?

shasta

29-10-2009, 09:48 PM

Shasta. You still havent answered my 2 questions. What would you do now with the benefit of hindsight and what would you have done without the benefit of hindsight?

I would have crystalized the gains approx 9 months ago, NZO had far too much cash in $US that they didn't require at the time, which could have been earning a decent interest rate in $NZ.

What would i do now, well i'd start by implementing a risk/cash management strategy so the situation is monitored more closely.

As it sits, i do think the FX rate is likely to drop (in NZO's favour), but by good luck rather than management, they may slowly be able to turn around the losses.

There's two options as i see it:

1. Continue to do nothing & hope FX rate drops :rolleyes:

2. Reduce the $US exposure to cover just the necessary "budgeted" costs, by slowly converting small chunks at a time, when the $US drops.

No point converting it all now & taking a hit :(

I'd be putting the converted funds into $NZ & getting some interest on it, to help offset the past FX losses.

But this is reactive management not proactive, i'd like to see a cash management strategy devised to monitor the FX currency risks.

As for hedging, now might be a good time to take out some forward contracts on the Tapis price (lock it in around at $US80/bbl).

That would provide a floor price & more comfort knowing a falling $US will further benefit NZO, yet still retain exposure to higher oil prices.

Hedging for the Tapis price & FX issues should form part of a risk/cash management strategy, and at least be monitored & reviewed periodically.

To me it's not speculating but just good business sense!

PS, Page 545 my post #8161 - check my post

friedegg

29-10-2009, 10:39 PM

Nitaa

29-10-2009, 10:52 PM

i quite liked finding out a guideline as to what they expect from kupe($50-$60m per year,nzd i think?)..
i quite liked that personally tr and ds thought albacore had a better chance than hoki...
funny they reckoned the global crisis was too short and most companies over that period were just trying to offload thier crap assets...
funny the lady who got up and thanked them for her $123 dividend check
they didnt like questions about ppp
and i didnt like the fact probably 85% of the audience were 65years and over,where are the younger generation investors?i am 43 and was probably around the youngest there
i didnt like the sausage rolls or the mince pastries they were dry and cheap ingredients....
id never been to an agm for anything before so was interesting for me...Interesting post.

What was their response with regards to PPP?

The issue about NZO shareholders were largely 65 and over is interesting. Since the 87 crash, the index has largely done nothing for 25 odd years. Therefore kiwis leaving soon since that period have very little reason to jump into the sharemarket. Perhaps from their perspective (the under 45's) they will see the local sharemarket as providing very little for high perceived high risk. That could or more to the point will change during the next sharemarket boom whenever that is.

Nitaa

29-10-2009, 11:12 PM

Shasta. I checked your post on the page you mentioned. I do have to give you some kudos for forseeing the short term future and you were right at that time. I would like to put up a challenge about forseeing with some accuracy what the currency markets will do. However its bit too much of a hassle and their seem very little interest at the time.

I am willing to pay 100 to 1 odds if anyone could accurately predict what happens to the nzd v usd for each of the next 12 months. To put it simply. at the begining of each month you only have to predict whether the nzd goes up or down against the usd. Take what i just said back as it would be illegal as i am effectively operating like a bookie. My point is, its highly unlikely that anyone would get it right let alone predict where the actual currency will end up rather than just a simple up or down.

How many times you have you heard this year, John Key being one of them that the NZD could fall to 40 US cents. How wrong has he and others been short term. Now just so called experts are tipping the NZD to reach 1 for 1. Go figure. Maybe they will be right but you get my point. However, i wouldnt want these so called clowns playing with my money. Maybe thats what Grogen wanted to do.

Back to your previous post where you say you would take out some forward contracts and lock in Oil at $US80. Lucky nzo didnt take that appraoch when tui was going full tit and oil jumped up to $147. Therefore nzo team are stuffed if they do and stuffed if they dont.

Remember, oil has largely been unchanged and has hovered around the $NZ100 once you take in the currency at the time into consideration.

As i pointed out earlier, this debate could go on for ages and maybe we should revisit this in 6 months time, 12 months time and 2 years time. Working out where the currency and oil prices will be at these 3 intervals will be harder to pick that a broken nose.

Crypto Crude

30-10-2009, 02:00 AM

I woke up one day into the World of shares, and as I grew I realised that the likes of this stock were far too easy...
I mean, wow... we all knew it...
at vaious stages, we all held it...
all the wise guys said it...
NZOOD was fun when mackdunk said no...
he was a fanatic no!... but as these wise heads stood by, there was no doubt that we were in good care had we held in wait...
In the end I decided to chase something better...

Seriously mate...on another note,
The more I look at Matariki, the more I like about it...
This is an exploration target we can look highly at, mainly because of the things ive said...
but...

WOW...
...
..
.

there was something worth so much more in other asset classes...
go get this land...
buy some sweet spot I said to me man...
just hold and wait...

DO you think Tui is big?
Did you know Maari is twice the size of Tui...
that is what I said....
Oil $77US... all good...
whats the fuss about? when I look at oil now, and its currently up...
why are all oilers falling?...
its a market thing ,oohhh yeah its back....
hehe...

NZO... sweet dreams Jim, mad like mate who held and never sold and enjoyed a ride that looks set to boost Tui, and all else, Kupe jackpot Bonanza ripper...
Kicking it, gold bug...
later...
why so cheap?
not much longer id say...
:cool:
.^sc

Xerof

30-10-2009, 07:40 AM

manxman

30-10-2009, 07:41 AM

Beginning to sound a bit like Samuel Taylor Coleridge after a pint or so of laudanum.:cool:

Back on Planet Earth the Kan Tan IV is struggling with a stuck casing on Trefoil-2, which means at least a fortnight's delay in the Taranaki program. We'll be lucky to spud this year now.:(

shasta

30-10-2009, 01:26 PM

Shasta, I'm with you all the way on risk management.....as I was back in March

I said at that time they should bring it on home, and also said for a couple of hundy pa, they could have a Treasurer to manage the cash and risks for them.

40m saving for 200k seems a pretty good deal now........

It is disgraceful that a Company of this size lacks a Treasury division

My post on page 545 shows NZO had $US90m at the time!!!!!

They have never needed that much, & how much interest would NZO have made from those funds (when interest rates were much higher) on around $NZ140m, @ say 5% there's $7m before tax for doing nothing!

Mr Tommy

30-10-2009, 02:44 PM

Back on Planet Earth the Kan Tan IV is struggling with a stuck casing on Trefoil-2, which means at least a fortnight's delay in the Taranaki program. We'll be lucky to spud this year now.:(

NZOG said on wednesday....
Hoki is currently expected to spud in January 2010

Just out in the PPP announcement today...
The Tui Area Joint Venture (JV) has secured the services of the semi-submersible drilling rig Kan Tan IV to drill at least two near field exploration wells, with the earliest spud date of February 2010 on the current rig schedule.

Nitaa

30-10-2009, 05:44 PM

My post on page 545 shows NZO had $US90m at the time!!!!!

They have never needed that much, & how much interest would NZO have made from those funds (when interest rates were much higher) on around $NZ140m, @ say 5% there's $7m before tax for doing nothing!Unless they were seriously looking at overseas aqusitions or other overseas ventures.

digger

01-11-2009, 08:03 AM

Well i finally got home from the Wellington AGM plus a bit of time to put things back together here on the farm. This AGM was like no other. Firstly i spoke to all the directors except Paul Foley who seem to be always busy.After this meetings i go away feeling more informed and more confident about our near future.
The directors have a higher likely hood of success in the coming drilling program than i was prepared to hope for but in the end as Unicorn says if it is dry it is dry and the odds stacked prior mean nothing. I did thank the directors at the meeting for the success in the past year and only regret is that i forget to also comment on the achievment of a Shares in lue of Dividend scheme.A 40% increase in shareprice since the 2008 AGM speaks for itself especially when few companies here in NZ or worldwide will be able to boast better.
I have some mixed concerns about our foreign exchange policy but did not comment on it as it was Paul Grogan's thing and i did not want to associate it with the way he was putting the case,which i found conforntationally and in hindsight. Frankly i have read many things about the US dollar lately and there is just as strong an arguement that it is in for a sudden correction upwards as downwards. The NZ dollar is high for reasons that are beyond me but suspect it will correct back..
Also true that whatever we pay for has to be in US dollars as does an acquisition if it eventuates,so there was a very good reason for doing what the director did. If i were to have brought up a point at the AGM about this matter it would have been along the lines that things are not looking normal anymore. By that i mean the US seems to be weaking as the worlds reserve currency and little NZ and smaller NZO will get pushed aside in any world shift. Maybe we should start putting some money in the Euro.
Again to the directors thanks for a very good year and also best of the best for a successful new year drilling program.

Chippie

01-11-2009, 08:04 PM

Digger
Congratulations only being the only person who spoke at the AGM and got a loud round of applause. I noticed most of the board were also clapping after your comments.

I hd also noted that David Scoffam appeared to be very hopefull of a good outcome from Albacore (I hope he is right)

fabs

04-11-2009, 02:20 PM

Can anybody post the latest Article in The Headliner 29.10.09. VOLUME 31 NO 4 Re: NEGATIVE VIBES FROM VIETNAM?
Seems there was a pefect Window [ AUGUST -SEPT] to make QUITE A BIT OF MONEY

troyvdh

04-11-2009, 06:01 PM

cheers digger for your efforts..been a holder for 20 + years..hate the technical stuff.
cheers..am indebted.

friedegg

04-11-2009, 07:13 PM

cheers digger for your efforts..been a holder for 20 + years..hate the technical stuff.
cheers..am indebted.
20 plus years?is that the buy and hold till ya die method

troyvdh

04-11-2009, 07:29 PM

...dear fred....how many dollars do you have in the sharemarket and for how long...then I will respond...cheers...

digger

05-11-2009, 09:20 AM

20 plus years?is that the buy and hold till ya die method

Another way of putting the 20 year+ hold is to call it the Warren Buffett method.The method thats the only one to lead to the world's richest man.The secert is to get the right company.Here on sharetrader we have been over this many times but to me the trading method implies you are smart enought to beat the market,and concieted enought to believe it.
As i am sure many of you now know yesterday Warren Buffett invested 26 billion buying a railway in the US. This is on theoildrum.com for thoses interested.This investment says essentually that Warren is a Peak Oiler and he knows that America will come out of the recession but goods and people will increasingly travel by rail as it is more efficient in the use of ever more expensive fuel. Another way of investing in this future that the worlds richest man see is an investment in a good oiler.
So Troyvdh stay with it.This is an achievment not something that needs defending. Those 20 years have not been too bad either. We have had the drill and thrill and three dividends and one PPP give away,plus a share appreciation. We are now also well positioned for growth in the near future.Trading on the other hand has the problem of added risk,constant monorting,cost,and the IRD breathing down your neck. The upcoming 4 drill program is very likely to be successful at least once,so the future could be even more rosey.

friedegg

05-11-2009, 10:34 AM

...dear fred....how many dollars do you have in the sharemarket and for how long...then I will respond...cheers...
first share i brought was mhi in 1986/87?on debut only because i worked in a little bank in whangarei where they banked and kept them for 10 odd years(thats the longest ive held any),as to how much i have invested in sharemarket now well i will be honest approx $250000 in 2 companies,but dont take that as skiting because i have nothing else in assets except for a few motorbikes,so i guess my investing life hasnt been too great and it also does pay to stick with the same woman all your life unlike me who has split everything in half 3 times

Bixbite

05-11-2009, 12:50 PM

first share i brought was mhi in 1986/87?on debut only because i worked in a little bank in whangarei where they banked and kept them for 10 odd years(thats the longest ive held any),as to how much i have invested in sharemarket now well i will be honest approx $250000 in 2 companies,but dont take that as skiting because i have nothing else in assets except for a few motorbikes,so i guess my investing life hasnt been too great and it also does pay to stick with the same woman all your life unlike me who has split everything in half 3 times

Lets see how much friedegg should have if he stuck with the first same woman.

Before the 3rd split $250,000 x2 = $500,000 plus …
Before the 2nd split $500,000 x 2 = $1,000,000 plus …
Before the 1st split $1,00,000 x 2 = $2,000,000 plus ….

Conclusion: …..….

stone small green

05-11-2009, 01:02 PM

Lets see how much friedegg should have if he stuck with the first same woman.

Before the 3rd split $250,000 x2 = $500,000 plus …
Before the 2nd split $500,000 x 2 = $1,000,000 plus …
Before the 1st split $1,00,000 x 2 = $2,000,000 plus ….

Conclusion: …..….

To add to that. As FRED said, his investment life hasn't been great. I assuming that's a return less than the bank..
Also when Fred is mentioning the dollar term, I guess that should be in "real term" so aftertaking inflation into account...
the price has grown about 20ish% over the last 25 years?

so in conclusion...
intiaial>$2,000,000

:eek:

dsurf

05-11-2009, 01:28 PM

I am looking forward to the news coverage on Kupe to lift the price back to test $180 ish. Will be interesting to see how much coverage and if it will be a big media circus and opening day or whether it will just be an announcement.

troyvdh

05-11-2009, 02:36 PM

Dear fred...this went somewhere where I never thought that it would/could.I applaud your honesty...(how did it go wrong so often...already you sound like a top bloke)..anyways...by nature I am generally a "holder" of investments.I have this funny believe that wealth is somewhat more important that money.Holding a company like NZOG has a wealth value to me.Any share that I sell..generally is a play thing.The other aspect to all this is that I am becoming increasingly aware that keeping the stuff requires a different skill set from skills required to make it (money).

cheers (have about $35Ok in mkt)

percy

05-11-2009, 03:01 PM

dear fred.
live has been kind to you.you have kept the motorbikes,so you must have
your prorities right. suggest you check out any future partners bank balance
before you commit yourself again. keep the bikes in a fred family trust.
you will find your lust will increase in line with larger bank balances.
this is nornal.watch your blood pressure should you find a partner with either a share portfolio or a property portfolio.should you find one with all three
please send her name to me to check out on yourbehalf.
the 250,000 you have is still a large amount of money.
may pay to invest in more motorbikes as you seam to be able to hang onto
them.for long term holds check ebo,rym.
regards percy

Nitaa

05-11-2009, 03:39 PM

Sort of wonder that it may be better hiring a prostitute in that regard. Cheaper still, do it solo.

friedegg

05-11-2009, 03:57 PM

Sort of wonder that it may be better hiring a prostitute in that regard. Cheaper still, do it solo.
funny that nita as hiring a prostitute was one of the reasons one relationship fell through:cool:,im not that fond of keeping with the same bikes also as i must have owned in excess of 200 in my lifetime and i like multiple partners so up to 11 have been in the garage at some stage at once...
getting back to nzo ive had these flamin things for 5 years now and was committed to selling them back in sept but only managed to get rid of a few,since then ive held for the divy,then ive held for the agm and now im going to hold for this albacore drill/kupe start,so whens this flamin rig going to realeased?

Casa del Energia

05-11-2009, 05:38 PM

funny that nita as hiring a prostitute was one of the reasons one relationship fell through:cool:,im not that fond of keeping with the same bikes also as i must have owned in excess of 200 in my lifetime and i like multiple partners so up to 11 have been in the garage at some stage at once...
getting back to nzo ive had these flamin things for 5 years now and was committed to selling them back in sept but only managed to get rid of a few,since then ive held for the divy,then ive held for the agm and now im going to hold for this albacore drill/kupe start,so whens this flamin rig going to realeased?
Hmm - nice to have the faceless fascades fleshed out - maybe a little too fleshed out (as it were).

Did have 200k - until begining of this week. Even NZO has slightly gone backwards on me. Never owned a motorcycle. NZO - get that gas flowing quick before I end up on the street.

777

05-11-2009, 06:45 PM

Perhaps you should change your "sign on" to "GST" friedegg. You only have 12.5% left. :)

blockhead

05-11-2009, 09:46 PM

Mr F Egg, I have this belief you will have a smile on your face whatever happens !! Love it.

Blocky

06-11-2009, 09:56 AM

Daily ShareChat: New Zealand Oil & Gas

By Jenny Ruth

Friday 6th November 2009

First NZ Capital analyst Jason Familton says he has reluctantly lowered his expectations of New Zealand Oil & Gas because of the strong share price performance ahead of planned well drilling.

"We recognise the risk of significant outperformance of the share if, in paricular, either the Albacore or Hoki exploration wells are successful, Familton says.

The company is drilling four wells over the next six months with drilling of the Albacore well starting in November followed by the Hoki well and then two wells near the company's existing Tui field.

"We view the Tui near-field drilling (scheduled for late in the first quarter of 2010) as providing a nearer-term driver of earnings, given the ability for it to be tied back rapidly into the already producing Tui development," Familton says.

"However, given their relative size, the Albacore and Hoki exploration wells, if successful, are likely to have a greater positive impact on the share than the Tui near-field drilling, despite its higher chance of success," he says.

Familton has cut his 2010 forecast net profit by 29.4% to $16.2 million from $22.9 million to reflect lower earnings from 29.5%-owned Pike River Coal and interest costs. He has also cut his valuation from $1.53 to $1.41 to reflect higher capital costs at the Kupe development, expected to be commissioned late this year, and the falling value of the company's US cash holdings.

Snapper

06-11-2009, 10:15 AM

"Familton has cut his 2010 forecast net profit by 29.4% to $16.2 million from $22.9 million to reflect lower earnings from 29.5%-owned Pike River Coal and interest costs. He has also cut his valuation from $1.53 to $1.41 to reflect higher capital costs at the Kupe development, expected to be commissioned late this year, and the falling value of the company's US cash holdings."

I understood net profit to be $53.2 million for 09, is he talking about the half-year? Any relation to Relda?

sideline

06-11-2009, 10:26 AM

"Familton..........and the falling value of the company's US cash holdings."

The value of those US cash holdings has actually been rising lately - amazing how
those analysts are always behind the curve. Personally I rate First NZ Capital and their
advice as underperform.

fabs

06-11-2009, 11:25 AM

Or are they just trying to give the brokers main clients, the Speculators and Traders a leg up to get in as low as pos. to get a quick 10-25% or more profit, when the fun starts?

Nevl

06-11-2009, 07:24 PM

Certainly puts NZOG in perspective

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,659615,00.html

Peak oil not as close as we think.

friedegg

06-11-2009, 09:54 PM

[QUOTE=Nevl;280766]Certainly puts NZOG in perspective

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,659615,00.html

Peak oil not as close as we think.[/QUOTE
your talking iraq,id much rather have 80m barrells from taranaki than try to get 800m from iraq,i dont believe in peak oil myself because the likes of canada have vast amounts alone in tar sands etc but cheap oil is at its peak about now i think

digger

06-11-2009, 10:41 PM

Certainly puts NZOG in perspective

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,659615,00.html

Peak oil not as close as we think.

Nevl,thanks for that article. It really has nothing new in it except desperation. Iraq has been known for decades to have a lot of untaped oil and the cost of getting it out should be cheap by world standards to extract---except for the every on going human factor.Of all resources the human resource is the largest by a country mile. All the oil majors know this and until very recently factored out Iraq because of this matter. The fact that they are signing up now to what was just recently unthinkable shows the desperate state of the world oil supply.
The Iraq fractions are locked into prepertical warfare that will go on all our life time. As more oil that becomes available it will just inflame more fighting.It is too ingrained into there culture.What is needed in Iraq is a new way of thinking and that is just not going to happen.From this article i read war and proof of Peak Oil.

bermuda

06-11-2009, 11:06 PM

Nevl,thanks for that article. It really has nothing new in it except desperation. Iraq has been known for decades to have a lot of untaped oil and the cost of getting it out should be cheap by world standards to extract---except for the every on going human factor.Of all resources the human resource is the largest by a country mile. All the oil majors know this and until very recently factored out Iraq because of this matter. The fact that they are signing up now to what was just recently unthinkable shows the desperate state of the world oil supply.
The Iraq fractions are locked into prepertical warfare that will go on all our life time. As more oil that becomes available it will just inflame more fighting.It is too ingrained into there culture.What is needed in Iraq is a new way of thinking and that is just not going to happen.From this article i read war and proof of Peak Oil.

Digger,
Ticha has appeared with a very good U Tube on Peak Oil...on another site.( Under Heading...Oil Discussion).

Peak Oil is brought to us by people in the know ( geologists, experienced Enegy Bankers ) whereas the antipeak lads are economists or politicians who have little comparatve experience who have no idea what a crude depeltion of 6.7% per annum can do to the world.

NZOG is entering that 'Thrill and Drill' period again. Let's hope it is better this time. I am pretty sure it will be but the Coal Seam Gas story in Aussie has got me hooked. All the best to followers in the New Year.

Could be a big 2010 for NZOG.

notie

07-11-2009, 11:56 AM

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

the machine

07-11-2009, 02:56 PM

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

everyone is entitled to their views and mine differs by about 100%, given bought more nzo recently.

M

digger

07-11-2009, 07:27 PM

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

You back.Good god after your last attack turned out so wrong i thought you would have hid away a bit longer. I refer here to your going on about NZO keeping shareholders in the dark and feeding them sh-it like mushrooms. About 6 weeks after that NZO tops the NZX chart on informing its shareholders. How come we did not here from your crowd congradulating NZO on this achievment???? Better hid away for a bit longer and with a bit of luck maybe one of the four upcoming drills will be dry and have your name on it and give you in hindsight something to comlpain about.

COLIN

07-11-2009, 10:15 PM

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

Alias "Sniper" I believe.

bermuda

07-11-2009, 10:52 PM

You back.Good god after your last attack turned out so wrong i thought you would have hid away a bit longer. I refer here to your going on about NZO keeping shareholders in the dark and feeding them sh-it like mushrooms. About 6 weeks after that NZO tops the NZX chart on informing its shareholders. How come we did not here from your crowd congradulating NZO on this achievment???? Better hid away for a bit longer and with a bit of luck maybe one of the four upcoming drills will be dry and have your name on it and give you in hindsight something to comlpain about.

Hear Hear Digger. Well said. Notie please take note.

shasta

08-11-2009, 12:11 AM

Alias "Sniper" I believe.

Colin

Sniper/Haka/Minder/Sharebroker is still on here under another name :rolleyes:

I'll let you work it out...

arjay

09-11-2009, 10:27 AM

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

And may such performance continue!

rainey

09-11-2009, 11:42 AM

There is a fair bit of negativity towards NOG at the moment, rather unjustified I think. Has anyone done an analisys of likely cash flows into NOG once Kupe is fully operational?

friedegg

09-11-2009, 12:06 PM

There is a fair bit of negativity towards NOG at the moment, rather unjustified I think. Has anyone done an analisys of likely cash flows into NOG once Kupe is fully operational?
i havnt but they suggested at agm approx 55-60million a year for ? years

Lion

09-11-2009, 12:57 PM

i havnt but they suggested at agm approx 55-60million a year for ? years

fifteen years

Mr Tommy

09-11-2009, 12:58 PM

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

Yep Notie you're bang on again.

Share price up 40% since 2008 AGM
Another dividend of 5cps paid
Tui still outperforming initial projections
4 wells being drilled in next few months
Kupe about to go live

If you want under performance I suggest you go report on some of the kiwisaver fund managers.

sideline

09-11-2009, 01:13 PM

Yep Notie you're bang on again.

Share price up 40% since 2008 AGM
Another dividend of 5cps paid
Tui still outperforming initial projections
4 wells being drilled in next few months
Kupe about to go live

If you want under performance I suggest you go report on some of the kiwisaver fund managers.

Maybe Notie IS a kiwisaver fund manager???

rainey

09-11-2009, 02:38 PM

Thanks for that Friedegg

arjay

09-11-2009, 03:21 PM

Maybe Notie IS a kiwisaver fund manager???

Nah, he's the guy who approves travel applications for Parliamentary Services.

COLIN

09-11-2009, 03:32 PM

Colin

Sniper/Haka/Minder/Sharebroker is still on here under another name :rolleyes:

I'll let you work it out...

No, you've got me there, Shasta.
Give us a clue!

shasta

09-11-2009, 03:52 PM

No, you've got me there, Shasta.
Give us a clue!

Well let me just say, he's been putting the boot into PRC on a regular basis ;)

notie

09-11-2009, 06:01 PM

lol. parliamentary services

Mr Tommy

10-11-2009, 02:16 PM

The Maari partners are still using the rig and are currently not expected to be finished with it until early November.

Hi Chris
any update on where the rig is at ?
Thanks

Casa del Energia

10-11-2009, 02:31 PM

Supplimentary question, Mr Speaker

Attn Chris Roberts.

From the AGM 2 weeks ago "Pipeline gas is scheduled to be introduced to the plant next week and a few weeks later the first raw gas should be brought ashore from the Kupe field, effectively signalling the start of production."

Chris - Can you tell us how long to go as of today?

notie

10-11-2009, 10:23 PM

Hi Chris
any update on where the rig is at ?
Thanks

guys, chris roberts should not be posting info such as when the rig is about to move onto site and spud on here. It is privilaged information that he should be telling all shareholders via releases to the asx & nzx, not just to you lads.

the machine

11-11-2009, 12:25 AM

am happy that there is no news at present about kupe testing systems with pipeline gas as no news is good news, in this particulary dangerous phase of the development

gas leakage catching alight etc do not make good headlines in terms of sp

M

Mr Tommy

11-11-2009, 10:46 AM

guys, chris roberts should not be posting info such as when the rig is about to move onto site and spud on here.
It is privilaged information that he should be telling all shareholders via releases to the asx & nzx, not just to you lads.

Rubbish. Its been publicly stated the rig will move early November, its not like its a big secret is it?. Sites like rigzone publish the whereabouts of every rig on the planet.

The media often reports information from companies that hasnt been released with a NZX announcement.

digger

11-11-2009, 12:40 PM

Rubbish. Its been publicly stated the rig will move early November, its not like its a big secret is it?. Sites like rigzone publish the whereabouts of every rig on the planet.

The media often reports information from companies that hasnt been released with a NZX announcement.

This all goes to highlight that the rig getting onto site has nothing to do with the board of directors sitting and making a decision,except for the decision made about long ago to go ahead with the drill.
Every drill i have known is late to start but this one is from the earliest estimates about two months overdue. From memory was it not first to drill in sept from am estimate way back about july or august.

digger

11-11-2009, 03:20 PM

Maari now a 100 million barrel oil field with additional wells
— filed under: News, Petroleum
4 November 2009 - The Maari oil field and its adjacent Manaia field in offshore Taranaki has been confirmed as containing over 100 million barrels of recoverable oil.

This is twice as much as the 50 million barrels originally estimated for the main Moki sands reservoir at Maari.

This makes the OMV-operated Maari field much the largest crude oil field to be found in New Zealand and twice the original 50 million barrels found at the Tui fields.

Richard Tweedie, chairman of Maari minority partner Cue Energy (and chief executive of another Maari partner Todd Energy) said the recent additional discoveries at Manaia and the Maari M2A sands plus the main Moki reservoir would together “amount to over 100 million barrels of recoverable oil."

Mr Tweedie said “Cue’s investment in the Maari field has created outstanding results."

OMV had earlier announced that the extended reach Manaia-1 appraisal well would be brought into commercial production after successfully completing a horizontal well into the Mangahewa Formation within the Manaia structure.

The 8 km-long well, the longest well ever drilled in New Zealand, was completed following a 48 day drilling programme. Manaia-1 well length is eight times as long as the Auckland Harbour bridge.

The well was drilled by the ENSCO 107 jack-up rig from the Maari wellhead platform Tiro Tiro Moana, which then transfers the oil via subsea flow lines to the floating production storage and off-take vessel, the Raroa, permanently anchored 1.5 km away.

Wayne Kirk, managing director OMV New Zealand, said the announcements of extra production from the two fields “are icing on the Maari cake.”

“The extra production from the two fields will add to the sizeable benefits the development is already providing the New Zealand economy.”

He said the Manaia well will now be tied into the Maari facilities with production due to begin over the next months.

Production from the M2A zone well in the Moki sands, 50 m above the main reservoir, is expected to begin by year end.

Another Maari partner, Horizon Oil said the additional reserves will serve to extend the peak rate production plateau of the field. The MR9 well to the M2A zone would produce intermittently when capacity was available.

OMV New Zealand said it would not comment on reserves or production flow rates until a full evaluation of both discoveries had been completed.

Horizon reported that the Manaia-1 horizontal well penetrated a Mangahewa section 1.5 km long with a net-to-gross of 60-70%.

Horizon said logs and gas ratio analyses confirm the presence of oil throughout the Manaia reservoir section. There was no revision to pre-drill oil-in-place estimates of 50-60 million barrels at this stage. Horizon said oil-in-place estimates for the Maari M2A zone were 30-40 million barrels.The two additional commercial zones would lengthen the time of the production plateau at Maari as well as extending the economic life of the field.

Horizon also said that there were also two further oil zones at Maari, not appraised in the current field development, but which have been penetrated by earlier exploratory wells. These were the deeper Mangahewa formation at Maari and the shallower Moki formation at Manaia.

Horizon said it expected these zones to be addressed later in the life of the field.

OMV holds a 69% interest in Maari and Manaia mining permits, Todd Energy 16%, Horizon Oil International 10% and Cue Energy Resources 5%. (Todd Energy also owns 27% of Cue).

Sources: OMV, Cue Energy, Horizon and Lindsay Clark

Related links
Maari field - OMV - Cue Energy - Horizon Oil

Perhaps this goes somewhat to explain the delay.The ENSCO-107 had to drill NZ longest horsontal well of 8 kls.
As a side bit i bought a quarter million CUE shares at 15.5 cents during the recent cash issue. Felt at the time NZO should be into them as it is aal hapening close to home where you know the score.

Chris Roberts

11-11-2009, 04:05 PM

Casa del Energia

11-11-2009, 04:17 PM

For the current status of NZOG's production, development and exploration holdings, shareholders and other interested parties should visit NZOG's website:
www.nzog.com/tui
www.nzog.com/kupe
www.nzog.com/exploration

Cheers, Thanks for the reply.
I hadn't noticed the Nov 10 announcment in 'exploration' before.
The Kupe one hasn't changed since Moses was a cowboy.

Chris Roberts

11-11-2009, 04:35 PM

Cheers, Thanks for the reply.
I hadn't noticed the Nov 10 announcment in 'exploration' before.
The Kupe one hasn't changed since Moses was a cowboy.

Kupe page was updated this week.

Casa del Energia

11-11-2009, 05:10 PM

Kupe page was updated this week.

I should learn not to skim read.

COLIN

11-11-2009, 10:02 PM

Well let me just say, he's been putting the boot into PRC on a regular basis ;)

..........and SCF ............... and now IFT?

I hadn't realised that when a poster changes his nom-de-plume his original joining date remains?

shasta

11-11-2009, 10:26 PM

..........and SCF ............... and now IFT?

I hadn't realised that when a poster changes his nom-de-plume his original joining date remains?

Big brother is always watching ;)

arjay

12-11-2009, 08:38 AM

Maari now a 100 million barrel oil field .

A bit sad for all those poor old Petro-Taranaki investors who clubbed together to discover the Moki field. It goes to show how wise NZO were keeping an interest in Kupe when it, like Moki, was deemed sub-economic all those years ago.

temuk

12-11-2009, 11:21 PM

..........and SCF ............... and now IFT?

I hadn't realised that when a poster changes his nom-de-plume his original joining date remains?

Dribling out of one side of mouth does not constitute a BALANCED person

peterfindlay

13-11-2009, 02:35 PM

I thought the latest research prepared by John Kidd of from McDouall Stuart on 9 November 2009 may be of interest. It appears very well thought out, and takes a view contrary to that recently expressed by First NZ Capital et al, who have not considered the imminent drilling prospects to represent a quantifiable present value, and in some cases, not of relevance to their buy/sell/hold recommendation. Please note the tables could not be reproduced, and where outlined in text form is shown in italics.

NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

We’re the first to admit that we talk about NZO a lot. There are a number of reasons for this: as well as being a company that we know very well and a core holding of many of our clients, we also consider it to be currently the most undervalued NZX15 stock on the market.

In this commentary we attempt to lay out a rationale for why we think this is. We do so now to address a number of enquiries we have fielded from investors regarding investment downgrades to NZO from other brokers over the past few weeks, and also because we think this could quite possibly be the last opportunity we get before events leave theory behind.

Existing assets

Our argument starts with NZO’s existing assets. In our 2 October update (NZO: Business Time) we valued NZO on existing assets at $1.88/share. The main variable component to this value is the contribution of NZO’s 30% stake in PRC; our valuation assumes contribution from PRC at our current PRC DCF valuation of $1.61/share. If PRC’s contribution was included at its current price of $1.07/share, our NZO sum-of-parts valuation would reduce to 1.73/share, a slight premium to its current $1.70/share.

In other words, on our base case assumptions, our view is that NZO at current price represents relatively fair value on its existing assets. In saying this, we consider there to be a number of factors that serve to support our view that risk to our base NZO valuation lies to the upside. These include PRC’s severe discount to valuation, a higher oil forward curve (our base assumption is US$70/bbl; NYMEX 12 month forward currently sits above US$82/bbl) and the prospect of a modest reserve revision at Kupe.

News Flash: NZO is an Oil Explorer!
The Rationale for Accounting for Exploration Upside Oil exploration is a risk game. Unlike other more predictable industries where investment decisions are made on parameters that have a much greater degree of forward certainty, oil exploration carries with it a substantially higher risk profile. The corollary is that the returns of success in the oil exploration and production business are typically far higher than those available in other sectors.

Oil companies intent on growing their businesses must invest actively to retain and grow their reserve positions. As Tui did for NZO and its JV partners during 2007 and 2008, surging production can generate outstanding returns, but it also exacerbates the problem of replacing a reserve base in relatively quick decline.

Despite the sharp risk/return profile of the oil business, E&P companies behave like any other in making investment decisions on the presumption that they will generate positive returns from their capital spend. This can be difficult to rationalise on a well-by-well basis, because drilling of individual wells tends to be hit or miss (i.e. individual wells tend to either succeed or fail). A recent fail example was the Kupe JV’s drilling of the Momoho prospect last year. Despite a relatively high probability of success (‘POS’), Momoho was subcommercial, meaning that the JV essentially realised a zero return on a $50m outlay.

The POS of an individual prospect depends on the characteristics of its geology and its drilling history. For a wildcat well drilled in geologically promising but previously undrilled territory, POS may be as low as 1 in 10. But for a well being drilled in an area that has already been explored and has proven itself to be productive, POS may even be better than 1 in 2. Drilling multiple wells and holding sensible equity positions across a diversified exploration portfolio greatly increases the potential value and success of a company’s exploration programme.

The key point is that E&P companies make drilling decisions on the presumption that success will be achieved and returns made, not necessarily just on an individual well basis, but across the portfolio. Rightly or wrongly (wrongly, in our view) the local market does not tend to price-in exploration upside to their valuations of listed E&P companies. This contrasts quite markedly with other more sophisticated markets which do make provision for exploration-led upside in an E&P stock valuations.

The usual way that this often-called “speculative upside” layer is priced in other markets is to take a risk-adjusted approach to valuing a company’s exploration portfolio. This sees risk factors applied to the potential returns from individual prospects, which are then added together to arrive at a risk-adjusted value for a company’s exploration portfolio.

For example, another Tui-like discovery would present a whole-of-life NPV (on a 100% equity basis) of around $2 billion. Assuming a pre-drill 1-in-10 POS could see just 10% of that value ascribed to the prospect, so in NZO’s 12.5% Tui equity case, just 6cps. In our view, not even this single risk-adjusted hypothetical field is accounted for in NZO’s current price.

The risk-adjusted approach is both simple and defendable, but has significant limitations. By definition, the approach drastically understates the returns that could be expected from a successful drill. The example above is a clear case in point; a successful drill would be worth the full $2 billion to the JV, not the risk-adjusted $200m. In NZO’s 12.5% equity case, share price response would not be 6cps, but more like 65cps.

This serves to reinforce why industry expertise is such a critical determinant to assessing the relative quality of a company’s exploration book. Applying hypothetical risk and return assumptions to possible outcome scenarios is easy; understanding the characteristics that separate low from high quality prospects is the hard part. Deciding where exactly to drill is ultimately what separates successful from unsuccessful exploration.

The NZO Case in Point

The NZO case precisely demonstrates the exploration upside conundrum. As we’ve noted, in our view only NZO’s existing assets are accounted for in its current share; there is (in our view) no ascription of any value for its exploration programme. This despite the company being less than a week away from spudding its first well on what will be a long and potentially very exciting programme that offers for it and investors the prospect of very substantial exploration-led upside.

NZO’s programme includes drilling by both rigs operating in NZ waters over this summer. The ENSCO-107 jack-up rig, which has just finished its duties at
Maari, is expected this week to mobilise to the Albacore permit to spud Albacore-1. The Kan Tan IV semisubmersible rig will arrive from the Bass Strait in late January, immediately following which it will drill Hoki-1 then move onto the Tui permit to drill at least two wells.

We have previously stated that, based on our estimated POS for each well (50% for each of two Tui wells and 15% for each of Albacore and Hoki) there is an 80% likelihood of NZO making at least one successful discovery from its four-well summer campaign. That probability would lift to above 90% if the Tui JV chooses to drill another Tui well, which we consider a distinct possibility.

The market taking the approach of not accounting for any exploration upside means that the value downside from an entirely unsuccessful campaign is very small, and supported by a firm floor. It also means that the value upside from an even modestly successful campaign is substantial.

We estimate that NZO’s upcoming drilling programme will cost it $35m, which equates to just 9cps. If NZO's campaign is entirely unsuccessful and it opts to write-off its full outlay in FY10, the after-tax expense would be the equivalent of just 6cps.

The value of success would depend on the characteristics of the accumulation encountered, and in particular, the composition of tapped hydrocarbons (liquids are much more valuable than gas), the infrastructure required to bring the resource to market (expensive onshore facilities like Kupe vs cheaper offshore facilities like Tui) and equity held in the permit area in question.

Another way of thinking of the potential value of reserve upside is to benchmark possible discoveries against what the market values oil and gas reserves at. Currently the average across peer companies sits at just under NZ$28m EV per mmboe. NZO pitches slightly below that average at 25.3m/mmboe, again supporting the view that exploration upside is not factored to share price.

Applying the average benchmark to NZO generates similar value conclusions to what a POS approach implies. Assuming a Tui-scale find across each permit
points to value upside of between 36cps and 144cps per find (i.e. Albacore $1.44, Hoki $0.36, Tui SW $0.45, Tui NE/SE $0.45).

Investment View: Don’t Sell !

In terms of a formal investment recommendation, we do not encourage investors to reduce their NZO positions. To the contrary; investors who have enjoyed some of the annualised 27.5% pa returns that NZO has delivered over the past 3 years and understand how the company has been able to deliver these returns should consider increasing their holdings to access what we consider as a strong chance of more-of-the-same. The value downside of such a strategy would, as we have hopefully demonstrated, have a strong floor beneath it.

Finally, be conscious that with NZO likely to spud it's first well at Albacore this coming weekend, the window to act is closing fast. Because of its equity position Albacore presents by far the largest value potential to NZO (Fig 7). Albacore-1 will be a relatively short 18-20 day drill, meaning news can be expected in the first week of December. Act fast.

777

13-11-2009, 04:16 PM

Another positive report...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3059510/New-Zealand-set-for-an-oil-bonanza

Investors willing to back the discovery and development of New Zealand oil reserves could be investing in a country at the same stage as Norway in the pre-North Sea era, says a leading US money manager.

Renowned for his bullish views on New Zealand's petroleum prospects, William Buechler insists New Zealand is set for an oil bonanza that will eclipse Britain's North Sea oil boom.

"New Zealand is at the beginning of a country-changing event; the challenge is going to be to embrace the change and get it right. Activity and momentum are increasing but going under the radar screen."

For more than 25 years, New Zealand has thrived on the hydrocarbons produced by its Maui oil and gas field, prompting little in the way of new exploration. However, as global reserves dwindled and the price of crude soared, new exploration has began in earnest.

More offshore wells have been drilled in the last two years than the rest of the decade combined: 35 on and offshore wells were drilled between January 2008 and July 2009 alone.

Helping drive this activity some $200 million of exploratory drilling is planned this summer has been a sea change in government attitude to the petroleum industry's potential, says Buechler, lead portfolio manager of the Kiwi Pacific Fund.

"Crown Minerals has been gathering seismic data and offering it for free and that's allowed companies to look at data on a decreased risk basis."

Buechler says the scope for economic success from oil is "unquestionable" but investors must act now to get in ahead of overseas backers.

Only last week, Todd Energy chief executive Richard Tweedie confirmed Maari and its adjacent Manaia field in offshore Taranaki were home to 100 million barrels of recoverable oil, making it New Zealand's largest crude oil field and twice the original 50 million barrels found at the Tui fields.

The world's biggest sovereign wealth funds are backing oil and gas exploration in the Asia Pacific.

At $598b, Norway's global government pension fund is the world's second largest wealth fund. It has snowballed in size after Norway's decision to treat oil proceeds and royalties as investment capital and not revenue like Britain.

"If New Zealand is truly going to benefit in the long run from the discovery of oil, is has to make this decision," says Buechler.

friedegg

13-11-2009, 10:11 PM

so if theres a negative 6cps result for all drills to be unsuccessful there surely lies an insight into the mentality of the average nz sharemarket investor?take hanover shareholders for instance

notie

13-11-2009, 10:33 PM

Another positive report...

"If New Zealand is truly going to benefit in the long run from the discovery of oil, is has to make this decision," says Buechler.

Maybe they should have asked him when the last new oil and discovery was in NZ.

It has been about 5 years since anything new was discovered.
Unrealistic chatter like this doesn't help NZ. More investment might, although certain companies aren't going to the the ones making the big discoveries.

mcdoull stuart's summary is more slack analysis. NZ first capital got it about right:cool:

brucey09

13-11-2009, 10:46 PM

why would any person listin to macdougall stewart - they have a vested interest ? prc nzo etc etc?

digger

14-11-2009, 08:09 AM

Maybe they should have asked him when the last new oil and discovery was in NZ.

It has been about 5 years since anything new was discovered.
Unrealistic chatter like this doesn't help NZ. More investment might, although certain companies aren't going to the the ones making the big discoveries.

mcdoull stuart's summary is more slack analysis. NZ first capital got it about right:cool:

Notie the latest oil discovery was about two months ago with CUE holding 5% of the field as per my post above.About 50 million extra barrells were added.And i am sure you will join me in the confidence that NZO will add a similiar amount in the next few months.

notie

14-11-2009, 09:05 AM

Notie the latest oil discovery was about two months ago with CUE holding 5% of the field as per my post above.About 50 million extra barrells were added.And i am sure you will join me in the confidence that NZO will add a similiar amount in the next few months.

both maari and manaia are not new discoveries. These were both found in the 70's+80's.

arjay

15-11-2009, 05:11 PM

both maari and manaia are not new discoveries. These were both found in the 70's+80's.

Maari was discovered in 1983 by Petro-Taranaki's Moki-1 well. As Digger points out, the Manaia discovery is new.

arjay

15-11-2009, 05:15 PM

With the upcoming drilling action coming up I reckon some blue-sky NZOE options would be fun. Say, 1:2 distribution with a conversion price of $3, 24 months out. Lots of fun for speculators and no dilution unless we hit the jackpot.

Crypto Crude

15-11-2009, 07:32 PM

Arjay-As Digger points out, the Manaia discovery is new.

Im with Notie on this one...
Manaia was discovered in 1970 by shell...
It flowed oil at 575 BOPD...
and the research that Id done pointed to a sucessful producer...
The reasons being, updip more oil contact...
Still didnt really get rewarded for knowing it was a close to 100million barrel field...
in the end the market took it as a given...
pffft....
:cool:
.^sc

digger

15-11-2009, 08:01 PM

Im with Notie on this one...
Manaia was discovered in 1970 by shell...
It flowed oil at 575 BOPD...
and the research that Id done pointed to a sucessful producer...
The reasons being, updip more oil contact...
Still didnt really get rewarded for knowing it was a close to 100million barrel field...
in the end the market took it as a given...
pffft....
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy,please explain as that is not my defination of a discovery.I would say a discovery can not be booked until it is finally proven and Manaia was only been finally shown to be a fact with the last drill. As i understand it Manaia was drilled down dip but it was later Seismic that confirmed it was not drilled in the best location.Therefore i say the discovery can not be technically booked until it is drilled and conformed.To say it otherwise would mean that the 100 million barrells were discovered in 1970 and the report of last week is the final and eventual conformation of that fact.
Naturally the same can be said with the near TUI drills about to start.

the machine

16-11-2009, 12:16 PM

is there any news on the ensco-107 shifting? as 36 hours calm weather needed

otherwise maybe this wed/thurs might be ok weather wise

M

arjay

16-11-2009, 12:20 PM

flyingfox

16-11-2009, 01:34 PM

hold NZO for a while, it's been so quite....since jump from round1.60.
When we can expect some news from those undergoing project?late nov?

Mr Tommy

16-11-2009, 02:15 PM

is there any news on the ensco-107 shifting? as 36 hours calm weather needed

otherwise maybe this wed/thurs might be ok weather wise

M

Yep you need to keep an eye on the NZOG site under exploration. Pssst, dont tell Notie !

16 November: The first well to be drilled in this summer's drilling programme is the Albacore-1 well, using the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig.

The ENSCO-107 is still at the Maari field waiting for assignment to the Albacore JV. Calm weather and sea state are required before the rig can be moved away from the Maari platform. The next possible weather window is towards the end of the week.

Casa del Energia

16-11-2009, 05:19 PM

Yep you need to keep an eye on the NZOG site under exploration. Pssst, dont tell Notie !

16 November: The first well to be drilled in this summer's drilling programme is the Albacore-1 well, using the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig.

The ENSCO-107 is still at the Maari field waiting for assignment to the Albacore JV. Calm weather and sea state are required before the rig can be moved away from the Maari platform. The next possible weather window is towards the end of the week.

Weather looks a bit iffy, certaily not balmy glass pond stuff:

Coastal Situation for all New Zealand issued at 04:45pm Monday 16-Nov-2009
A west to southwest flow covers the country today. A low is expected to develop over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday and move across the lower North Island early Wednesday. A weak ridge should move onto the country from the west late Wednesday and during Thursday, then move away to the northeast on Friday followed by a strengthening northwest flow.

Outlook following 72 hours: Trough along 172E moving east. Northwest 20 to 30kt east of trough. Southwest 25kt to gale west of trough with heavy southwest swell. Low 40S 151E moving east. Clockwise 20 to 30kt near low. Second low expected 53S 150E at 180000Z moving east. Clockwise 25kt to gale near second low in northern semicircle with heavy westerly swell. Third low expected 43S 150E at 190600Z moving southeast.

fish

16-11-2009, 07:03 PM

Weather looks a bit iffy, certaily not balmy glass pond stuff:

Coastal Situation for all New Zealand issued at 04:45pm Monday 16-Nov-2009
A west to southwest flow covers the country today. A low is expected to develop over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday and move across the lower North Island early Wednesday. A weak ridge should move onto the country from the west late Wednesday and during Thursday, then move away to the northeast on Friday followed by a strengthening northwest flow.

Outlook following 72 hours: Trough along 172E moving east. Northwest 20 to 30kt east of trough. Southwest 25kt to gale west of trough with heavy southwest swell. Low 40S 151E moving east. Clockwise 20 to 30kt near low. Second low expected 53S 150E at 180000Z moving east. Clockwise 25kt to gale near second low in northern semicircle with heavy westerly swell. Third low expected 43S 150E at 190600Z moving southeast.

To get the whole picture look at metvuw and one of the swellmaps-it looks like we have a high coming over the top of the country bringing light winds and a decreasing swell on Friday .
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nz&noofdays=7

the machine

16-11-2009, 11:47 PM

To get the whole picture look at metvuw and one of the swellmaps-it looks like we have a high coming over the top of the country bringing light winds and a decreasing swell on Friday .
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nz&noofdays=7

Thanks Casa & Fish.

Since Ensco-107 has to jack down right alongside the platform then weather conditions for that will need to be perfect.

Recall after Momoho the rig had to lay up for 3 months waiting for the weather [lay up in Nelson?], but that was heading into winter, so at this time of year there should be no chance of that - just have to wait for the weather window and don't be disappointed if it takes a few weeks.

M

Crypto Crude

17-11-2009, 12:02 PM

Shrewdy,please explain as that is not my defination of a discovery.I would say a discovery can not be booked until it is finally proven and Manaia was only been finally shown to be a fact with the last drill. As i understand it Manaia was drilled down dip but it was later Seismic that confirmed it was not drilled in the best location.Therefore i say the discovery can not be technically booked until it is drilled and conformed.To say it otherwise would mean that the 100 million barrells were discovered in 1970 and the report of last week is the final and eventual conformation of that fact.
Naturally the same can be said with the near TUI drills about to start.

Digger,
A discovery is anything that is found, it is the detection of hydrocarbons only...
It has nothing to do with the economics of the field, or moveable hydrocarons (recovery rate), or breakeven point...
...

the point you are making is about Appraisal stage drilling which proceeds exploration/discovery stage....

The 100 million barrels recoverable compromises of 60 million from main moki sands,
12 million from M2A, and 25 million from Manaia...
so, the field was discovered in 1970, but the full extent of those reserves were not fully known until 2009... so hence the slight confusion
:cool:
.^sc

digger

18-11-2009, 08:23 AM

Digger,
A discovery is anything that is found, it is the detection of hydrocarbons only...
It has nothing to do with the economics of the field, or moveable hydrocarons (recovery rate), or breakeven point...
...

the point you are making is about Appraisal stage drilling which proceeds exploration/discovery stage....

The 100 million barrels recoverable compromises of 60 million from main moki sands,
12 million from M2A, and 25 million from Manaia...
so, the field was discovered in 1970, but the full extent of those reserves were not fully known until 2009... so hence the slight confusion
:cool:
.^sc
Thanks Shrewdy for that exact explanation. Being the sort i am i prefer my own way of seeing it even if i end up talking only to myself.At least it will be good to know one of humanity has got it the way it should be.
So for me a discovery in practical terms belong to the one who makes it. Hence Christoper Clumbus only discovered the West Indies and the rest goes gradually to future explores.It is just too much to say Clumbus discovered everything from the Grand Canyon to the world wide web just because he dectected the new world land mass. My way of seeing it makes Momoho,s drill last year a non economic event as that was when it was drilled and found to be such regardless of what the predrill expectations were.
But thanks Shrewdy for your detailed and insightful comments and from me they are much appreciated.
PS---did you see on TV! this morning the American who says NZ is about to launch a drilling program that could have results bigger than the North Sea.Exciting sounding but i would prefer this was done without fanfare and on the quite,that way the big predrill hype is not built in.
Cheers

Sehnsucht888

18-11-2009, 09:28 AM

2 Articles in the dominion this morning with references to NZO..

Also online here
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3072698/Money-for-oil-gas-exploration
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3072694/NZ-seen-as-safe-haven-for-oil-exploration

Also a bit on TV1 business this morning interviewing William Buechler, - behind one of the articles.

Hopefully some positive movement from this exposure.

Casa del Energia

18-11-2009, 10:33 AM

Well, whilst the NZX is doing a pretty good impression of a nose dive again this morning - NOG is holding up. I have good feelings in my bones about the sp over the next month no matter what sort of nasty figures come out of the US. NZO sp appears bullet proof at the mo.

Crypto Crude

18-11-2009, 10:52 AM

diggz,
nah didnt see that on TV this morning...
we all knew that this NZ oil boom was coming and I hope Team NZO hit it big...
Theres a good chance...

I read that article on the previous page by the Kidd...
Mate, all this guy had to say is as follows...

Kupe, Tui, and Pike hold current value support of NZO...
up and coming drilling action provides the upside...
Hence, NZO is a rare oiler that has an exceptional profile of low down and big up...
personally, Ive been looking for years and years into this, and these sorts of risk profiles on stocks dont come round very often...
NZO special stock...
This stock is a hot tip...

I will be watching NZO with much interest...
another Tui would be great...
bye for now...
:cool:
.^sc

manxman

18-11-2009, 01:24 PM

From Aunty Herald http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10610100

The large mass of icebergs spotted last week continues to drift north from Antarctica towards New Zealand, and could possibly reach the lower North Island.

Glaciologist Neil Young said the closest he had detected the icebergs was around 280km southwest of Auckland Island.

"If you draw a triangle from New Zealand to Australia to Antarctica, they are roughly in the middle.

"I can anticipate they will reach New Zealand but I wouldn't care to predict it. How far they get depends on their size and the state of the ocean.

"But they are getting closer."

In the past week, at least four icebergs have been spotted off the east and west coasts of Macquarie Island, ranging in size from 50m to an estimated 2km long.

Remember when the Ocean Patriot was chased out of the Canterbury Basin by the last iceberg.

Arbitrage

18-11-2009, 01:57 PM

Where is the best place to get regular updates on drilling progress? Is it the exploration page on nzog's website?

Crypto Crude

18-11-2009, 04:07 PM

Arbitrage,
theres no place better than sharetrader...
good oil info...
:cool:
.^sc

Arbitrage

19-11-2009, 09:09 AM

Thanks mate. Looking forward to your metre by metre commentary once they spud in. I can smell those hydrocarbons already.

blockhead

19-11-2009, 11:24 AM

Thats got a ring of David Langes famous Oxford debate quote about it.

"I can smell the hydrocarbons on his breath"....or was it uranium ??

Casa del Energia

20-11-2009, 12:04 PM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10610525

An NZHerald article report on a McDouall idea turn Genesis's stake in Kupe into the capital base for creating a new exploration company.

A slightly weird way of capitalising a way for the Govt. to get in on the act?

Mr Tommy

20-11-2009, 03:45 PM

bermuda

20-11-2009, 05:31 PM

Any reasons why Octanex trumped NZOG in gaining this permit? Looks pretty good on paper.

digger

21-11-2009, 08:25 AM

20 November: The first well to be drilled in this summer's drilling programme is the Albacore-1 well, using the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig.

The weather is still refusing to cooperate, delaying the start of drilling. The ENSCO-107 is still at the Maari field waiting for calm weather so that it can be pulled away from the Maari platform. Once that occurs, the rig will be assigned to the Albacore joint venture and towed to the Albacore site. The weather conditions are being assessed daily.

Mr Tommy,hi i will be able to tell you exactally when the rig will be able to be moved.
18 months ago i set up on my new home and it is all self generated power.We have a small Airdolphin wind turbine and solar power.For now forget the solar and look at the wind. In this 18 month period the best producing period has been the last 4 weeks. Power produced from wind varies directly with the cubed of the speed of wind,so double the wind you get 8 times the force from it,triple gets 27 times. So if the wind is blowing up on my hill top it sure as hell blowing out on the ocean with nothing to break it.A further complication is that in two seconds of the wind stopping the land effect carried no energy force into the future but the waves on the ocean sure do.
So in conclusion i would say we need three days with no wind and at that point we also need a good forward outlook. At least we can take heart from the fact that the now 100 icebergs are not on colision coar-se with Taranaki. The Barque prospect might get visited and if so will add a big concern in this area,when next years decision to drill comes up.
Cheers

the machine

21-11-2009, 01:42 PM

Chris Roberts

23-11-2009, 08:52 AM

Any reasons why Octanex trumped NZOG in gaining this permit? Looks pretty good on paper.

This was open area - anyone could have applied for it. I believe Octanex was the only company interested and none of the companies currently active in Taranaki put in an application.

Anna Naum

23-11-2009, 09:34 AM

This was open area - anyone could have applied for it. I believe Octanex was the only company interested and none of the companies currently active in Taranaki put in an application.

Thanks Chris

OutToLunch

23-11-2009, 09:46 AM

Despite yet another week of westerlies ahead courtesy of El Nino...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.slp.html

At least things are on the move, at last. :)

Anna Naum

23-11-2009, 10:18 AM

On its way.
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/NZO/announcements/3088383/Drilling-Rig-heading-for-Albacore

Mr Tommy

23-11-2009, 10:23 AM

On its way.
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/NZO/announcements/3088383/Drilling-Rig-heading-for-Albacore

Excellent. 20 days drilling, hopefully christmas will be coming early this year !

Arbitrage

23-11-2009, 10:35 AM

20 days to drill the hole to 2200m but the targets are between 1400m - 1800m, so results could come sooner.

Zito

23-11-2009, 10:38 AM

The forecast is actually quite mild for the next week. Winds should be light to moderate in the area.

dsurf

23-11-2009, 10:51 AM

NZO
23/11/2009
MINE

REL: 0938 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Drilling Rig heading for Albacore

The joint venture for the Albacore permit (PEP 38491) has taken assignment of
the drilling rig ENSCO-107, which will be used to drill the Albacore-1
exploration well.

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) has a 40% share in the Albacore permit,
which lies in the northern Taranaki Basin, approximately 70km north of New
Plymouth.
The ENSCO-107 is a jack-up rig that recently completed drilling at the Maari
field in the southern Taranaki basin. It has been in Taranaki waters since
October 2007 and prior to Maari drilled the Kupe development wells and the
Momoho exploration well for NZOG and its partners.

The rig was towed away from the Maari production platform last night and was
officially assigned to the Albacore joint venture at midnight.

The rig is now being towed north towards the Albacore drilling location, a
journey which will take approximately 24 hours. Once on site it will be
secured on the sea bed and commence preparation activities. A tensioner deck
that was removed for the Maari drilling will be reinstated, ahead of spudding
the well.

The Albacore-1 well is expected to take around 20 days to drill. The water
depth is 95 metres, and the total drilling depth is likely to be around 2200
metres.

Weighing approximately 16,000 tonnes, the ENSCO-107 stands 157 metres high
and is 63 metres wide. Once at the new drilling location, around 100 drilling
team members and support staff will live onboard the rig.

Three separate target zones that may contain oil or gas will be targeted by
the Albacore-1 well. At the end of the drilling, the well will be plugged and
abandoned and the results analysed.
End CA:00188132 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2009-11-23:09:38:37

Mr Tommy

23-11-2009, 11:24 AM

Just reading PPP agm notes from friday...

"The Tui oil production rate is inevitably reducing as the field declines, and production in the financial year 2009-10 is currently forecast at 4.7 million barrels, 470,000 barrels net to PPP. This is slightly lower than the original forecast of 5.1 million barrels; primarily due to a shortfall related to compressor issues, which are being addressed. Current production rates are about 15,000 barrels per day."

Whats this compressor issue ???

digger

23-11-2009, 11:34 AM

Told you fokes i would know by my wind turbine when Albacore well would be spudded.
Last night about 9 oclock my wind turbine stopped getting enought wind to generate.This is the first time in 6 weeks this has happened,and looking at the weather map this morning i was sure it would be now all go. We have three or maybe four days before the weather could churn up again if it does even then.
All i want for christmas is---------

Arbitrage

23-11-2009, 12:55 PM

Once the rig is anchored, the weather shouldn't affect the drilling.

Mr Tommy

23-11-2009, 01:06 PM

blockhead

23-11-2009, 01:43 PM

And check Ashburton weather for me Dig, Lonbeach MTB race for me.

Very marvellous turbine you have !

digger

23-11-2009, 02:45 PM

Hey Digger can you tell me what the forecast will be for Saturday at Taupo for the round Taupo race. Can you consult your turbine for me.

I can indeed Mr Tommy with an incredible level of accuracy. As you well know you only get what you pay for,so what donation will i be receiving before hand.Taupo is not that far away either so a large deposit will easily set your mind to rest.

digger

23-11-2009, 02:57 PM

And check Ashburton weather for me Dig, Lonbeach MTB race for me.

Very marvellous turbine you have !

For you Blockhead i will lower the scale fee as your area is further away and my turbine is very concerned with giving a result that you would be happy to repeat in the future.
Until the rig hits the target zone we will all need a bit of humor to settle the nerves.Why does not make sence as we spend all our time wanting drilling to experience the thrill and drill or spill.
One interesting thing about Albacore that i meant to find out about this area at the AGM is that some 20 or so years earlier[or round about] a drill was done close by and found nothing. Does anyone know if that is in the same basin. With Hector we had the same thing with big hopes but a drill some decades earlier suggesting nothing. At that time the earlier drill was given as not being part of the same location. What do the geologist say here with Albacore?. Anyone have any thoughts?

Arbitrage

24-11-2009, 02:15 PM

From NZOG:

24 November: The ENSCO-107 jack-up rig arrived on site around midnight and preparations have begun ahead of the drilling of the Albacore-1 well.

fish

24-11-2009, 03:56 PM

For you Blockhead i will lower the scale fee as your area is further away and my turbine is very concerned with giving a result that you would be happy to repeat in the future.
Until the rig hits the target zone we will all need a bit of humor to settle the nerves.Why does not make sence as we spend all our time wanting drilling to experience the thrill and drill or spill.
One interesting thing about Albacore that i meant to find out about this area at the AGM is that some 20 or so years earlier[or round about] a drill was done close by and found nothing. Does anyone know if that is in the same basin. With Hector we had the same thing with big hopes but a drill some decades earlier suggesting nothing. At that time the earlier drill was given as not being part of the same location. What do the geologist say here with Albacore?. Anyone have any thoughts?

Doesnt sound as if they are drilling a previously targetted area-NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said his company's assessment is that the central northern Taranaki basin is a very prospective part of the basin. There are three separate play fairways within PEP 38491 -- a Pliocene Fan and two Mangaa sands -- and it contains half a dozen interesting prospects.

He said the Albacore prospect contains three separate target zones that may contain hydrocarbons. The Albacore-1 well will target structures recently defined by 3D seismic at depths of 1,400 to 1,800 m.

Salisbury said NZOG's internal analysis is that Albacore is more likely to contain oil than gas and, if successful, could support an offshore development similar to Tui.

NZOG now has interests in seven permits in the offshore Taranaki Basin and one in the Canterbury Basin. NZOG will be participating in the drilling of at least four wells this summer.

digger

25-11-2009, 07:23 AM

Doesnt sound as if they are drilling a previously targetted area-NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said his company's assessment is that the central northern Taranaki basin is a very prospective part of the basin. There are three separate play fairways within PEP 38491 -- a Pliocene Fan and two Mangaa sands -- and it contains half a dozen interesting prospects.

He said the Albacore prospect contains three separate target zones that may contain hydrocarbons. The Albacore-1 well will target structures recently defined by 3D seismic at depths of 1,400 to 1,800 m.

Salisbury said NZOG's internal analysis is that Albacore is more likely to contain oil than gas and, if successful, could support an offshore development similar to Tui.

NZOG now has interests in seven permits in the offshore Taranaki Basin and one in the Canterbury Basin. NZOG will be participating in the drilling of at least four wells this summer.

Thanks for that Fish. Quess the question is how close was the last drill to this basin and can it be in any way considered part of it even by some extension. Nerves i suppose.Very little market reaction theses days comparied to years gone by ,but Albacore has the potential to be a company changer if successful.
Somewhat answering my own question,market have a history of falling 3 to 4 weeks out from Christmas ,but rerate between christmas and new year,and peak out by end of janurary. This is a good long term trend with last years melt down being one of the big exception where it just kept heading south until 9 march.So maybe the market disinterest in Albacore is the christmas effect.

Arbitrage

25-11-2009, 09:15 AM

NZOG website:

25 November: The first well in NZOG’s summer drilling programme is Albacore-1, in the northern offshore Taranaki basin, 70km north of New Plymouth. The ENSCO-107 jack-up rig arrived on site just after midnight on Tuesday 24 November. It has been pinned to the sea floor but remains jacked up waiting on sea conditions to improve before pre-loading of the legs is undertaken.

shawsie

25-11-2009, 11:19 AM

digger interesting observation on silly season effect, is it NOG specific, or oil and gas, or kiwi, or australasian in your opinion?

now that would be a conundrum that perhaps only Phaedrus could conquer...

digger

25-11-2009, 11:49 AM

[QUOTE=shawsie;283210]digger interesting observation on silly season effect, is it NOG specific, or oil and gas, or kiwi, or australasian in your opinion?

Hi from my observation it is everywhere Christmas is celebrated,and NZO will not be exempted from it.

Arbitrage

25-11-2009, 03:35 PM

unless they strike oil.

777

25-11-2009, 03:58 PM

unless they strike oil.

When they strike oil.

digger

25-11-2009, 08:47 PM

Once the rig is anchored, the weather shouldn't affect the drilling.

Once it is anchored is the right way of putting it. My ever telling wind turbine is preforming extremely welll last night and today and tomorrow according to the weather report,so i would say the ENSCO-107 crew would be having their hands full just trying to stay on board.

fish

25-11-2009, 09:56 PM

When they strike oil.

It looks to me that they are confident of striking more oil around Tui but albacore only has good prospects .

the machine

27-11-2009, 12:25 PM

as previously noted re kupe:

"The raw gas stream from the Kupe field is scheduled to be introduced into the plant by early December."

well that time is fast approaching

M

WACC

27-11-2009, 02:10 PM

" Hi all." Looks like Dubai my prove a bigger influence than xmas. A buying opportunity awaits. Hey digger has that turbine been shifted yet.

digger

27-11-2009, 02:38 PM

" Hi all." Looks like Dubai my prove a bigger influence than xmas. A buying opportunity awaits. Hey digger has that turbine been shifted yet.
Strange i was just thinking that the Dubai thing would have a big effect coinciding with Christmas as well. About 2 .5 years ago i went to a Japan auction to hopefully buy a newish digger. I certainly did not get one as the hugh buyers were from the rich Saudi's and from Dubai. At the time they had money and treated it like it was nothing.Watched some near new second had machines go for prices well in asses of new prices. The answer to this was that they are here now and you sometimes have to wait a month or so for new ones. That sort of thinking is what has got them into the mess they are now facing.

Casa del Energia

27-11-2009, 05:30 PM

" Hi all." Looks like Dubai my prove a bigger influence than xmas. A buying opportunity awaits. Hey digger has that turbine been shifted yet.

Actually - the biggest influence is 'Mans infinite supply of stupidity'.

Sorry - but I'm feeling a little jaundiced about the sp dropping like a metorite just becuase of some mainiacs who've overspent on dumb things.

I'll feel in a better mood after a few beers tonight - until then, I vent my spleen.

troyvdh

27-11-2009, 06:31 PM

...dear Casa...I could not agree with you more...I recieve from Sharechat daily notes informing me of which stocks to watch...often NZO pops up as a "watch" given that the price of oil has overnight .. fallen.... it actually worries me as to how long the the average shareholder actually holds shares for...and for what reason....sure making dosh is healthy...but for goodness sake I would hope that a fair percentage of us actually think in terms of years rather than days/minutes.

Mr Tommy

30-11-2009, 01:48 PM

shawsie

30-11-2009, 05:19 PM

at 3% dividend yield, NZO are not attracting those who would normally hold long term.

if you look at the SP and feel better because your paper wealth is strong, then thats great, it has intrinsic value, it makes you smile.

personally I look at the SP and wonder about its direction, and getting/guessing it right is what spins my wheels.

just now I have joined the mighty MacDunk on the sidelines. Now is a selling opportunity. To me its in neon lights. The bulls have made it to the ring, and the toreador has started his act.

Whoever said its 'time in the market not timing the market' is up there with the godbotherers in my estimate.

fish

30-11-2009, 06:52 PM

2009-10 Summer Drilling Programme

30 November: The first well in NZOG’s summer drilling programme is Albacore-1, in the northern offshore Taranaki basin, 70km north of New Plymouth. The ENSCO-107 jack-up rig is secured at the well site but is waiting for the weather to improve to complete pre-drilling preparations.
Looks promising that the swell and weather will settle by the end of the week .
Summer drilling campaign about to commence and the sp falls .

geezy

30-11-2009, 11:36 PM

Looks promising that the swell and weather will settle by the end of the week .
Summer drilling campaign about to commence and the sp falls .

very strange, someone knows something we dont?

Casa del Energia

01-12-2009, 10:22 AM

very strange, someone knows something we dont?

No, there is probably nothing else to know. Suspect it is just the 'usual' market splutters you get coming out of a Great Depression, Dubai, Gold hitting 1200, USD going down the toilet, nervousness about who's going to stump up for fixing the planet . . . just signal noise.

The long run trend is for all oil wells to run dry.. I tend to hold during such splutters, .. too busy to fiddle about trading in and out second guessing the unguessable.

Anyway - relax - the sp is up this morning.

shawsie

01-12-2009, 10:45 AM

Casa del Energia

01-12-2009, 12:46 PM

CDE add to that the complete dearth of liquidity in what is farcically called a capital market.

at a 167/168 standoff yesterday I sold 20k shares and promptly moved the market to 164 and watched the buy depth all but disappear.

agree nothing to be gained in fiddling at the margin, but, those shares were bought at 127 not so long ago.

Peak Oil column in the herald this morning, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10612594

Excellent - someone to blame at last - it was you selling on a shallow market.

(And yes, no liquidity, wasn't there an IPO put off lately? So much head wind - I'm amazed NZO held up whilst most of the market was already in the septic tank.)

Sehnsucht888

02-12-2009, 12:54 AM

Back to 167, 3c up on close on very small volume. Such i the current state of play that small volumes push the price by modest movements because most are on the sidelines..

shawsie - "Now is a selling opportunity." - what the? NZO are about to drill a number of big potential targets. Small downside - big upside. What a load of bs..

Bilo

02-12-2009, 10:45 AM

shawsie - "Now is a selling opportunity." - what the? NZO are about to drill a number of big potential targets. Small downside - big upside. What a load of bs..

Kupe is the expected big news that hasn't arrived. On the 28th October pipeline gas was expected "next week" and a "few weeks later" raw gas will be introduced.

We have had the few weeks.

Turboman

02-12-2009, 11:10 AM

Kupe is the expected big news that hasn't arrived. On the 28th October pipeline gas was expected "next week" and a "few weeks later" raw gas will be introduced.

We have had the few weeks.

Kupe Progress:

November 2009: Mechanical completion of the Production Station near Hawera was achieved in October, at which point the plant was officially handed over from the projects team to the operations team.

Commissioning is now underway. Processed gases and liquids are being run through the plant. The raw gas stream from the Kupe field is scheduled to be introduced into the plant by early December.

So expect some news or PR by the end of next week at the latest

the machine

02-12-2009, 11:47 AM

meanwhile sp goes down

M

manxman

02-12-2009, 12:18 PM

Kupe Progress:

...expect some news or PR by the end of next week at the latest

But to be fair, NZOG is not the operator, and won't have much discretion in the release of operational information.

On another matter entirely, if Digger would switch off his fan for a bit, we might get Albacore spudded before Christmas.:D

Turboman

02-12-2009, 03:59 PM

meanwhile sp goes down

M

$1.70 last time I checked :D

fish

02-12-2009, 09:12 PM

But to be fair, NZOG is not the operator, and won't have much discretion in the release of operational information.

On another matter entirely, if Digger would switch off his fan for a bit, we might get Albacore spudded before Christmas.:D

hopefully this will be around friday-swell is dropping rapidly and wind swinging to NE .

digger

02-12-2009, 10:53 PM

hopefully this will be around friday-swell is dropping rapidly and wind swinging to NE .
Fish your on to it,looking good for this weekend.Got bugger all from turbine in last 24 hours which is the first time for about 6 weeks. By early next week we should have our first drilling report.
I am also waiting for the Kupe startup. Had wondered when price fell to 1-64 if it spelled bad news on that front,so if so it m ust be all behind us with the SP back to 1-70.

Have money in three oil companies [CUE,NZO,PPP] currently and they all have big drilling coming up or just starting so life is interesting. Hoping but like the rest of you i can only wait.

fabs

03-12-2009, 11:47 AM

Why not try to hire Mr. Mark Dumphy of Greymouth Petroleum and get rid of 3 or 4 of the present ones.

Aeneas

03-12-2009, 12:13 PM

Have money in three oil companies [CUE,NZO,PPP] currently and they all have big drilling coming up or just starting so life is interesting. Hoping but like the rest of you i can only wait.

Digger can I ask why you hold NZO and PPP? Surely you are holding the same asset in two stocks? Or am I missing something?

bermuda

03-12-2009, 12:45 PM

Digger can I ask why you hold NZO and PPP? Surely you are holding the same asset in two stocks? Or am I missing something?

Aeneas,
If you can get two bites at the same beautiful cherry why not? Hold as few stocks as you can. Diversification equals deworsification.

All the best for the summer drilling Digger. You have waited a long time for this opportunity to finally flourish. Will be watching with interest as we still hold a few NZO.

friedegg

03-12-2009, 02:46 PM

Digger can I ask why you hold NZO and PPP? Surely you are holding the same asset in two stocks? Or am I missing something?
spose only digger can answer but i suspect because hes such a patient guy with nzo that he got the core holding in ppp when nzo was giving the shares away ages ago
also notice the volume and buy side is heating up a bit and i suspect its because of kupe announcement due

Arbitrage

04-12-2009, 08:40 AM

From NZOG:
"3 December: The first well in NZOG’s summer drilling programme is Albacore-1, in the northern offshore Taranaki basin, 70km north of New Plymouth. The ENSCO-107 jack-up rig is secured at the well site and pre-drilling preparations are now underway. This will include the reinstatment of a deck removed while the rig was at the Maari development."

Turboman

04-12-2009, 10:43 AM

Fish your on to it,looking good for this weekend.Got bugger all from turbine in last 24 hours which is the first time for about 6 weeks. By early next week we should have our first drilling report.
I am also waiting for the Kupe startup. Had wondered when price fell to 1-64 if it spelled bad news on that front,so if so it m ust be all behind us with the SP back to 1-70.

Have money in three oil companies [CUE,NZO,PPP] currently and they all have big drilling coming up or just starting so life is interesting. Hoping but like the rest of you i can only wait. ."

From NZOG:
"3 December: The first well in NZOG’s summer drilling programme is Albacore-1, in the northern offshore Taranaki basin, 70km north of New Plymouth. The ENSCO-107 jack-up rig is secured at the well site and pre-drilling preparations are now underway. This will include the reinstatment of a deck removed while the rig was at the Maari development."

Digger if only your turbine could tell us the success of Albacore as well.....or is there something you aren't telling us :D

digger

04-12-2009, 10:51 AM

Digger can I ask why you hold NZO and PPP? Surely you are holding the same asset in two stocks? Or am I missing something?

Aeneas your new to sharetrader so i do not know much about what you know of the NZ oil story so might well be now repeating info your already aware of
NZO floated in the mid 80s and i first evolved to investing in that company about 1990 after being a trader for some years with mixed results.My first investment was small and over time grew as i compared the NZO story with the potential of other companies.NZO had a holding in PPP and shared much but certainly not all of the things that NZO was doing.NZO's first holding in PPP was all but given to NZO holders by way of a dividend to shut them up as at the time NZO had no income but the pro rata distrubition of PPP shares seem to be doing something for NZO holders. Now seeing it this way is my story and certainly never given as the official reason given why PPP shares were issued to NZO holders.
So that is how i got my first holding in PPP.From there PPP has had two cash issues that looking back now were great buys. I took part in both.As well more shares came my way from an option issue,which were in time converted.After NZO got income from TUI it used some of this income to re-enter PPP buying 15% at up to NZ35 cents. Shortly after this i bought another 180 thousand at 35 cents.I like to remind others of this recent 35 cent purchase of PPP as many have critised NZO for not buying more at this price as now in hindsight they should have.I say only those who bought PPP at 35 are in a position to point a fingure at NZO's inaction. I have no complaints with what NZO did at the time going forward and particularly do not like hindsight wisdom.
So that is roughtly why i have both.Both are winners and have a very exciting near future.I know where i am with these two companies. PPP as current drilling in East Timor and Maybbbbbb something in Vietnam as well as distant rubbish like Maitland etc,etc but 10% of the solid stuff around TUI.
After spending years running around trying to outbeat the market in the 80 and early 90's and first reading about Peak Oil at the turn of the century and getting older each year i have decided to settle down with the winners i have and leave the greater blue sky stuff to other younger more intelligent heads.To end note i did not purposely say wiser heads

digger

04-12-2009, 11:00 AM

Digger if only your turbine could tell us the success of Albacore as well.....or is there something you aren't telling us :D

This turbine is certainly a many splendered thing. Might have to put it on trademe to guage the interest in it.
You will not get a direct answer to your question but note the dial is still firmly set at the no sell position.

BigBob

04-12-2009, 03:07 PM

There it is...: announcement out - first gas from Kupe...!!

Arbitrage

04-12-2009, 03:29 PM

link to announcement:
http://www.nzog.com/n183.html

flyingfox

04-12-2009, 03:39 PM

so what?the sp is still like a snail!but it's probably bcs of the market

Casa del Energia

04-12-2009, 03:39 PM

This turbine is certainly a many splendered thing. Might have to put it on trademe to guage the interest in it.
You will not get a direct answer to your question but note the dial is still firmly set at the no sell position.

Tell me, Digger - was your last post a big hint that you knew about Kupe - or was that a coincidence?

fish

04-12-2009, 03:47 PM

There it is...: announcement out - first gas from Kupe...!!
NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) is pleased to report that the wells have been opened this afternoon and the first gas and liquids are being piped ashore from the offshore Kupe field to the processing plant near Hawera.
The Kupe field, 30km off the south Taranaki coast, was discovered by NZOG in 1986. During the era of cheap Maui gas and low oil prices it was uneconomic to develop Kupe. The investment decision was finally made in 2006, with Origin Energy as operator (and 50% owner). The other joint venture parties are NZOG (15%), Genesis Energy (31%) and Mitsui (4%).
With the raw gas stream now flowing to shore, the Kupe production system is being bedded down through a commissioning period. There will be production of sales gas, LPG and light oil during the commission period with full steady state production expected to be achieved in the next couple of months.
Over the life of the project, Kupe is expected to provide approximately 254 petajoules of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light oil.
Kupe will supply 10 to 15 per cent of New Zealand’s annual gas demand and around half of the country’s LPG requirements.
NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury says after 23 years NZOG and its shareholders are about to be rewarded for their perseverance

blockhead

04-12-2009, 04:05 PM

Yippeee, more $ in the Bank of NOG

fish

04-12-2009, 04:12 PM

Yippeee, more $ in the Bank of NOG
and weather conditions are ideal in the tasman to start the summer drilling programme

digger

04-12-2009, 09:58 PM

Tell me, Digger - was your last post a big hint that you knew about Kupe - or was that a coincidence?

Actually it was neither a coincidence or some inside knowledge that i was in possession of.Firstly you get directly nothing out of these directors except a up to date summary and feel between the lines sometimes. We all knew that first gas was imminent from recent info release and since had no reason to believe it would be anything other than early december.The recent fall in the SP to 1-64 then recovery to 1-70 can not really be put down to Albacore or PPP or PIKE or interntional oil price swings so i believed with nothing to go on except my feel that it was KUPE. The fall to 1-64 to me thinking was nerves by investers working close to the project who could not help but being in the know taking a consertative approach. The sudden recovery again on small volumn suggest that things are working as hoped.
Empting my private thoughts on this one would be that first gas report beat me by a few days as i expected it next week to be honest.

Casa del Energia

06-12-2009, 03:13 PM

Actually it was neither a coincidence or some inside knowledge that i was in possession of.Firstly you get directly nothing out of these directors except a up to date summary and feel between the lines sometimes. We all knew that first gas was imminent from recent info release and since had no reason to believe it would be anything other than early december.The recent fall in the SP to 1-64 then recovery to 1-70 can not really be put down to Albacore or PPP or PIKE or interntional oil price swings so i believed with nothing to go on except my feel that it was KUPE. The fall to 1-64 to me thinking was nerves by investers working close to the project who could not help but being in the know taking a consertative approach. The sudden recovery again on small volumn suggest that things are working as hoped.
Empting my private thoughts on this one would be that first gas report beat me by a few days as i expected it next week to be honest.

Cheers,

So it was by logical deduction - better than any thing else. The drop a week before had me foxed - was hoping (and it turns out to be so) that it was just jitters - thin trade pointed that way - - but the just as sudden re-thickening of price just before hand made me wonder if the rest of the planet knew things I didn't (which is mostly the case).
Anyway - what's your wind turbine doing - calm enough to put the sun deck back on at the drillibg rig?

digger

06-12-2009, 08:37 PM

Cheers,

Anyway - what's your wind turbine doing - calm enough to put the sun deck back on at the drillibg rig?

Yes things have settled down so i expect first drilling report this week.And by the way those guys on the drilling rig do not need a sun deck.They can now pull fingure as they have had enought of sitting around waiting. And on full pay to i might add.

blockhead

07-12-2009, 10:08 AM

MINE: NZO: Drilling underway at Albacore 09:39a.m.
NZO
07/12/2009
MINE

REL: 0939 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Drilling underway at Albacore

NZOG (New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd) advises that the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig has
commenced drilling at Albacore.

The Albacore-1 exploration well was spudded at 14:00 hours on Saturday 5
December.

As at 06:00 today, the 20" casing had been cemented and the well had been
drilled ahead to a depth of 419 metres MDRT*.

The well lies within petroleum exploration permit 38491, about 70kms north of
New Plymouth in the offshore Taranaki basin.

The spudding of the Albacore-1 well followed the completion of pre-drilling
preparations, the delivery and assembly of drill pipe and other items, and
the reinstatement of a tensioner deck that had been removed by the previous
users of the rig.

The Albacore-1 well is expected to take around 20 days to drill. The water
depth is 95 metres, and the total drilling depth is likely to be around 2200
metres. NZOG intends to provide weekly drilling reports to the NZX and ASX.

The well will examine several structural features defined by recent 3D
seismic data - a Pliocene Fan, two Mangaa sands, and the underlying
Volcaniclastics.

At the end of the drilling, the well will be plugged and abandoned and the
results analysed.

*MDRT - measured depth from rotary table.

arjay

07-12-2009, 12:23 PM

Methinks Albacore might be a particularly oily type of fish?

swissboy

07-12-2009, 12:35 PM

digger

07-12-2009, 12:51 PM

"At the end of the drilling, the well will be plugged and abandoned and the
results analysed."

will there be any indication of oil before they abandon it. Some comments were
"We might get an early xmas present."

20 days of drilling will bring us past xmas ???

Well Swissboy if you had been wisely following my turbine wind speed indicator you would have know that Albacore has been held up for two weeks,so yes the results will be after christmas now.Conformation will be known immediately if it is a completed success or failure. The inbetween stuff is what requires further studies.

arjay

07-12-2009, 12:55 PM

"At the end of the drilling, the well will be plugged and abandoned and the
results analysed."

will there be any indication of oil before they abandon it. Some comments were
"We might get an early xmas present."

20 days of drilling will bring us past xmas ???

20 days from last saturday is Xmas Day. They're giving out reports every week though, so I guess that will be each Monday. The 28th is a stat, so maybe the 29th for a final report? Is the NZX going to be open then?

Hoop

07-12-2009, 01:01 PM

I suspect they haven't thought out this recent announcement to the market very well..

The Albacore-1 exploration well was spudded at 14:00 hours on Saturday 5
December. ....
......The Albacore-1 well is expected to take around 20 days to drill.....
....NZOG intends to provide weekly drilling reports to the NZX and ASX. ..

21 days after start date is Friday Xmas Day.
I assume the NZX and ASX will not be open for business that day ;) ....so I guess that weekly report (re: end of drilling) maybe delayed somewhat.

Analysis of the drill during the Xmas/January break..Hmmmm...we could be waiting... some patience may be required, eh?

arjay

07-12-2009, 01:04 PM

Hoop

07-12-2009, 01:08 PM

I'll be happy with a timely statement to the effect "significant hydrocarbons found in drilling mud..... we'll update you in January"
So would I ..but is the PR machine up to it, to do something as simple as that.

blockhead

07-12-2009, 02:43 PM

Havent checked the depth of each area of interest but there are several areas of interest in this drill, could be an earlier ann if oil is leakin out all over the place after striking the first target and as they carry on to 2nd, 3rd and 4th area of interest.

Better than lotto I reckon !!

The well will examine several structural features defined by recent 3D
seismic data - a Pliocene Fan, two Mangaa sands, and the underlying
Volcaniclastics.

friedegg

07-12-2009, 03:01 PM

so does that mean we really want a trading halt well before xmas day?because if we get closer to the full drill length without any major success it would more than likely be a no goer

blockhead

07-12-2009, 03:09 PM

No we dont need a halt Mr Egg, if we are going to be up to our knees in oil a trading halt wont make a difference, will need a halt in celebratory activities perhaps so we can celebrate a bit more.

digger

07-12-2009, 03:28 PM

So would I ..but is the PR machine up to it, to do something as simple as that.

Hoop if the PR machine of any company is up to it it would be NZO. Remember it was NZO that topped the info chart on the NZX for giveing info and keeping the shareholders informed.
But lets all keep it in mind that around 20 days means just that. Maybe they will have a good run and it will be the night before christmas,or alternatively the drill gets stuck with info still waiting on the 20th janurary.

Casa del Energia

07-12-2009, 05:16 PM

Hoop if the PR machine of any company is up to it it would be NZO. Remember it was NZO that topped the info chart on the NZX for giveing info and keeping the shareholders informed.
But lets all keep it in mind that around 20 days means just that. Maybe they will have a good run and it will be the night before christmas,or alternatively the drill gets stuck with info still waiting on the 20th janurary.

Good point - must not get too carried away, this is drilling thousands of feet, miles off shore in one of the wildest seas on earth. Remember previous drills, breakdowns, lost bits, side tracks etc.

And perhaps remember the poor slobs stuck out on a rig on Xmas day while we're all poping corks and hoeing into turkey drumsticks. (even if they do get paid the equivalent of a small countries GDP each).

fish

07-12-2009, 08:07 PM

Good point - must not get too carried away, this is drilling thousands of feet, miles off shore in one of the wildest seas on earth. Remember previous drills, breakdowns, lost bits, side tracks etc.

And perhaps remember the poor slobs stuck out on a rig on Xmas day while we're all poping corks and hoeing into turkey drumsticks. (even if they do get paid the equivalent of a small countries GDP each).
Drilling underway at Albacore

Its not always that bad in the TasmaN

I was out on and in it on Saturday(fishing and diving ) as they were spudding albacore .The conditions were flat and warm and the sea very productive .
There are lots of lignite deposits on the cliffs above the beach where we launched our boat .
Albacore is a relatively low cost wildcat drill for nzo so minimal downside if it is a failure but a success would be just what be so good for the sp .
Expect to enjoy watching the sp during the thrill of the drill .

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig has commenced drilling at Albacore.

The Albacore-1 exploration well was spudded at 14:00 hours on Saturday 5 December.

As at 06:00 today, the 20” casing had been cemented and the well had been drilled ahead to a depth of 419 metres MDRT*.

The well lies within petroleum exploration permit 38491, about 70kms north of New Plymouth in the offshore Taranaki basin.

Hoop

07-12-2009, 09:55 PM

Hoop if the PR machine of any company is up to it it would be NZO. Remember it was NZO that topped the info chart on the NZX for giveing info and keeping the shareholders informed.
But lets all keep it in mind that around 20 days means just that. Maybe they will have a good run and it will be the night before christmas,or alternatively the drill gets stuck with info still waiting on the 20th janurary.

Digger...Yes agree...NZO has been excellent to us shareholders these last couple of years, and we should be very thankful of that fact. I am.

I probably should expand my possible concerns of the PR Machine ...I'm not sure and correct me if I'm wrong, but I wouldnt've thought NZOG (15%) or Mitsui (4%) would have much control on the timing of the announcements?
Wouldn't Origin Energy as operator (and 50% owner) be the dominant player and hence be doing the announcing? The other major joint venture party Genesis Energy (31%) may also have influence as well.

As NZO is No1 in informing shareholders..Origin is therefore not as informative as NZO.

,.

bermuda

07-12-2009, 10:37 PM

Digger...Yes agree...NZO has been excellent to us shareholders these last couple of years, and we should be very thankful of that fact. I am.

I probably should expand my possible concerns of the PR Machine ...I'm not sure and correct me if I'm wrong, but I wouldnt've thought NZOG (15%) or Mitsui (4%) would have much control on the timing of the announcements?
Wouldn't Origin Energy as operator (and 50% owner) be the dominant player and hence be doing the announcing? The other major joint venture party Genesis Energy (31%) may also have influence as well.

As NZO is No1 in informing shareholders..Origin is therefore not as informative as NZO.

,.

Hoop,
Westech ( Operator ) have 50% and NZO have 40% of this drill. I think you may have been referring to Kupe.

Watching with interest.

the machine

08-12-2009, 12:26 AM

Casa del Energia

08-12-2009, 12:38 PM

Drilling underway at Albacore

Its not always that bad in the TasmaN

I was out on and in it on Saturday(fishing and diving ) as they were spudding albacore .The conditions were flat and warm and the sea very productive .
There are lots of lignite deposits on the cliffs above the beach where we launched our boat .
Albacore is a relatively low cost wildcat drill for nzo so minimal downside if it is a failure but a success would be just what be so good for the sp .
Expect to enjoy watching the sp during the thrill of the drill .

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig has commenced drilling at Albacore.

The Albacore-1 exploration well was spudded at 14:00 hours on Saturday 5 December.

As at 06:00 today, the 20” casing had been cemented and the well had been drilled ahead to a depth of 419 metres MDRT*.

The well lies within petroleum exploration permit 38491, about 70kms north of New Plymouth in the offshore Taranaki basin.

Sounds idyllic - sea food and calm weather.

However (and, actually this is only tongue n cheek razzing) - New Plymouth is fourth windiest station "in" NZ with av wind speed of 20 KpH behind:
Wellington - 22
Chatham Is - 25
Scott Base - 21

That lignite sounds interesting - didn't know about that.

777

08-12-2009, 04:53 PM

A bit of buying happening in the past ten minutes. Looks like somebody doesn't want to miss out on the drilling program. Looking at a $1.80 close if it holds.

Casa del Energia

08-12-2009, 05:07 PM

A bit of buying happening in the past ten minutes. Looks like somebody doesn't want to miss out on the drilling program. Looking at a $1.80 close if it holds.

Yeah - nearly fell off my chair when I looked. The drought has broken.

Although - I have no clues as to why today in the late afternoon. No rhyme nor reason. Totally unexpected.

sideline

08-12-2009, 05:48 PM

Yeah - nearly fell off my chair when I looked. The drought has broken.

Although - I have no clues as to why today in the late afternoon. No rhyme nor reason. Totally unexpected.

They have struck oil unexpectedly early and it has leaked out? Naaah, just joking!

Rabbi

08-12-2009, 06:21 PM

Buy the Rumour?:)

manxman

08-12-2009, 08:44 PM

Buy the Rumour?:)

Without McDunk to seduce the tea lady, we are all at the mercy of rumours.

patrick

08-12-2009, 08:50 PM

Might have sold Pike?

Unicorn

08-12-2009, 09:18 PM

digger

08-12-2009, 10:29 PM

Sorry to bring some rationality into the idle speculation.

Remember a week or two back someone wanted to sell just a small number of shares in a hurry and pushed the price down a few cents to 164c. Now someone else has wanted to buy just a small number of shares in a hurry and has pushed the price up a few cents to 179c. It happens in a market with limited liquidity, and doesn't shift the average price by much at all.

Nothing to get excited about at this stage. But Albacore is getting deeper by the day, and that really could be something.

Yes it is just range trading. It was 1-80 a month ago,so nothing to get excited about.
The extraordinary thing is that the christmas effect should be damping the price,and soon will be the sell before it hits traget effect.
All in all this company has the potential to really shine come janurary. Albacore could just be a winner,pike has the continuous miner running and the KUPE gas will be passing the testing stage into startup.And never forget PPP. Here PPPV could be down to 1% of the Vietnam drill and the east timor drill is also in the wing.

So maybe some screwd buyer just added it all up and decided it was too much to risk missing,which it is but that is my inside story.

Dusty

09-12-2009, 08:21 AM

Yes it is just range trading. It was 1-80 a month ago,so nothing to get excited about.
The extraordinary thing is that the christmas effect should be damping the price,and soon will be the sell before it hits traget effect.
All in all this company has the potential to really shine come janurary. Albacore could just be a winner,pike has the continuous miner running and the KUPE gas will be passing the testing stage into startup.And never forget PPP. Here PPPV could be down to 1% of the Vietnam drill and the east timor drill is also in the wing.

So maybe some screwd buyer just added it all up and decided it was too much to risk missing,which it is but that is my inside story.

The regular announcements and rumours that come with a busy drilling period as we have here with NZO should keep the SP strong although we may see some volatility due to volume, could be a couple of trading opportunities here, with each of the 4 drills BESBS, hold for the results or attempt to time the run up and pre announcement sell off.

some "screwd buyer" haha was that a Freudian slip? I presume it was a shrewd buyer who added it all up?

Hoop

09-12-2009, 10:21 AM

down 4 to 175 again.
Well posted Unicorn and Digger

Dusty

09-12-2009, 10:46 AM

down 4 to 175 again.
Well posted Unicorn and Digger

and again on very low volume again, just over 10,000 shares traded. Just as you mentioned Unicorn it happens in a market with limited liquidity. Yes both great posts, wiser heads to keep the over excitable newer traders (myself guilty of this) a bit grounded.

Phaedrus

09-12-2009, 01:16 PM

Volume is indeed the key factor here. Without volume confirmation, price changes have less significance. Look carefully at the volume histogram at the bottom of the chart and you can see that the "big jump" was on only average volume. (Green bar, average volume marked by blue line). One of the best indicators for assessing market strength is the On Balance Volume (at top of chart). See how the OBV is flat-lining and has been for 6 months so far. A rise above the upper level would be Bullish, a drop below the lower level would be Bearish.
With NZO showing a flat OBV, optimism and pessimism are both inappropriate emotions. Technically.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZO129.gif

Casa del Energia

10-12-2009, 09:21 AM

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;285169]Volume is indeed the key factor here. Without volume confirmation, price changes have less significance. Look carefully at the volume histogram at the bottom of the chart and you can see that the "big jump" was on only average volume. (Green bar, average volume marked by blue line). One of the best indicators for assessing market strength is the On Balance Volume (at top of chart). See how the OBV is flat-lining and has been for 6 months so far. A rise above the upper level would be Bullish, a drop below the lower level would be Bearish.
With NZO showing a flat OBV, optimism and pessimism are both inappropriate emotions. Technically.

[QUOTE]

Well put - but perhaps the tech view only explains part of it. I think the fundamentals need to be added into the mix (sorry about the f word). - On balance, my take on it is that those who have chosen to partake in the drilling risk did so some weeks ago (as I did with a top up at 1.72) but that price included the up side of oil/gas find over the summer. Ditto Kupe and to a lesser extent pike. So - buyers have already marked out their position and have finished thier buying programme and consquently will not be sellers either. - - thus trading in NZO gets a mild case of constipation - for the time being.

Mr Tommy

10-12-2009, 09:34 AM

So - buyers have already marked out their position and have finished thier buying programme and consquently will not be sellers either. - - thus trading in NZO gets a mild case of constipation - for the time being.

Yes hopefully Albacore will provide the right kind of laxatives for you then Mr Casa.

Casa del Energia

10-12-2009, 09:45 AM

Yes hopefully Albacore will provide the right kind of laxatives for you then Mr Casa.

And hopefully not just a massive case of ... gas?

notie

10-12-2009, 07:02 PM

And hopefully not just a massive case of ... gas?

how about the nzx is not very liquid and most dealers in the know have pretty much discounted nzoo stock as being a bit of a joke.

Lion

10-12-2009, 07:43 PM

how about the nzx is not very liquid and most dealers in the know have pretty much discounted nzoo stock as being a bit of a joke.

Ummmm, what's NZOO, notie?

Billy Boy

10-12-2009, 10:39 PM

Ummmm, what's NZOO, notie?

Maybe the options !!! :D :D :D
BB

Casa del Energia

11-12-2009, 09:04 AM

how about the nzx is not very liquid and most dealers in the know have pretty much discounted nzoo stock as being a bit of a joke.

Aw - lighten up Notie. Have you been subcontracted by McDunk to be the Christmas grouch? NZO is no where near a joke - it is now paying truck loads of royalties into the treasury coffers, tax, dividends, helping the balance of trade, employing people - - and a major mover and shaker in the NZ oil industry. No joke - except on those who eschewed it and have not riden the NZO up elevator over the last couple of years.

Turboman

11-12-2009, 10:31 AM

NZO
11/12/2009
MINE

REL: 0928 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Albacore Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that as at 06:00 hours on 11
December, the following operations have been completed on Albacore-1:

- The 20 inch section has been drilled to a final depth of 207m MDRT
(measured depth below rotary table) with casing run and cemented.

- The 17-1/2 inch section has been drilled to a final depth of 1173m MDRT.

- 13-3/8 inch casing has been set at 1161m MDRT.

The current operations involve drilling out cement and preparing to drill
ahead in the 12-1/4 inch hole.

The well has an expected total depth of 2200 metres. The first of several
drilling targets is a Pliocene Fan at approximately 1470 metres.

Albacore-1 is an exploration well located 70km north of New Plymouth in the
northern offshore Taranaki basin. Drilling began on 5 December 2009 and is
expected to take approximately 20 days to reach total planned depth. The well
will then be plugged and abandoned and the results analysed.

Participants in the Albacore permit are:
Westech (Operator) 50%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through its subsidiary NZOG Offshore Ltd) 40%
Mighty River Power Gas Investments 10%
End CA:00189029 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2009-12-11:09:28:59

COLIN

11-12-2009, 10:41 AM

how about the nzx is not very liquid and most dealers in the know have pretty much discounted nzoo stock as being a bit of a joke.

I think the joke's on you, Notie. NZO has well and truly outperformed the NZX50 over the last couple of years (spanning the GFC period).

If these "dealers in the know" are linked to "broking firms in the know" then its no wonder I choose to ignore broker advice when managing my investments.

manxman

11-12-2009, 10:42 AM

how about the nzx is not very liquid and most dealers in the know have pretty much discounted nzoo stock as being a bit of a joke.

The pattern all this week has been for NZO to open weakly with the price dropping on very small volumes, then more serious trading late in the day with substantial bids coming in after 4:45 pushing the price back up.

Getting all the good news right at the end of the day is pushing up the wine consumption.

Changing the subject, nice to get an Albacore update. Will they test each target zone as they go, or do they drill all the way down and then test as they come back out? Looking at the graphics, they should be in the first target zone by Monday.

Casa del Energia

11-12-2009, 11:20 AM

The pattern all this week has been for NZO to open weakly with the price dropping on very small volumes, then more serious trading late in the day with substantial bids coming in after 4:45 pushing the price back up.

Getting all the good news right at the end of the day is pushing up the wine consumption.

Changing the subject, nice to get an Albacore update. Will they test each target zone as they go, or do they drill all the way down and then test as they come back out? Looking at the graphics, they should be in the first target zone by Monday.

This would only be a guess - but surely you'd have to put the logger thingie down at each target because of the need to run casing on when continuing drilling (which would surely seal the target strata off)… unless there is absolutely no sign of hydrocarbons in the mud - in that case - run on to the next target.

manxman

11-12-2009, 01:29 PM

This would only be a guess - but surely you'd have to put the logger thingie down at each target because of the need to run casing on when continuing drilling (which would surely seal the target strata off)… unless there is absolutely no sign of hydrocarbons in the mud - in that case - run on to the next target.

So we should get a scenario of short spells of drilling with significant pauses for the technical stuff. We need a young buck to seduce the tea lady. Are you listening Shrewdy?

Casa del Energia

11-12-2009, 02:00 PM

So we should get a scenario of short spells of drilling with significant pauses for the technical stuff. We need a young buck to seduce the tea lady. Are you listening Shrewdy?

I can't remember how long it takes to change over to the line logger - it is not to onerous from memory. Biggest hassel is if the wire snaps - then they have to lower an extension ladder and send someone down to get it back. (Just kidding - they actually lower him on a rope - extension ladder would be too short).

COLIN

11-12-2009, 05:43 PM

I can't remember how long it takes to change over to the line logger - it is not to onerous from memory. Biggest hassel is if the wire snaps - then they have to lower an extension ladder and send someone down to get it back. (Just kidding - they actually lower him on a rope - extension ladder would be too short).

Must be a very slim man, to fit inside a 12 inch bore!