NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Pipeline]

Temuk

I think you can safely say that your old mate does not know what he is talking about.

These guys have drilled numerous successful wells out here. Why would they "try something out"

It is just not done. Any comments Chris?

Cheers

Pipe

[Chris Roberts]

Temuk

I think you can safely say that your old mate does not know what he is talking about.

These guys have drilled numerous successful wells out here. Why would they "try something out"

It is just not done. Any comments Chris?

Cheers

Pipe

Please don't expect me to comment everytime someone says something silly on here - (there are not enough hours in the day) but waterblasting? Really? Someone is taking the mickey.
Standard drilling procedures are being used at Tui SW. Sure, it hasn't been a straight forward drill, but when you are drilling 2 miles into the sea bed there's a good chance you will face a few issues along the way. The key thing is what we find when we get to the target area. The next drilling report is likely to be released Thursday next week.

[Casa del Energia]

Is this correct?
I don't know much geology but the "unconsolidated formation" that stopped SW-1 sounds quite similar to a graben to me.

You'd think they would stop the drill now if they thought the difficult rock formation was going to stop them later. And they know a lot about what's down there now, (at least 35m away).

Yup - a graben is just a big block of rock - down thrust by two faults which bound it on each side - - if you were drilling into one you wouldn't notice a thing unless you happened to follow one of the faults down - then it all depends on the rock type. In my home town - Wellington, we are unlucky to have a harbour full of horsts (up ones) and grabens (down ones) and then to also have greywacke - which breaks up into real unstable stuff near faults - and then people build houses on them.

(edit) - Whoops - claification: A graben is NOT unconsolidated rock. The fact that 'it' is a graben has no bearing on rock density, hardness or even type. It's just a macro feature.

[dsurf]

Hurricane Season looking Bad but good for oil price.

Oil and natural gas prices surged on Thursday as the US government said this year’s hurricane season could rank among the most active to date, comparable to years that brought such devastating storms as 2005’s Katrina and Rita.

The outlook raises the possibility of damage to homes and businesses, losses to insurance companies and wild commodity price swings. It could also complicate BP’s efforts in the US Gulf of Mexico to contain its leaking well.

08The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated the June 1-November 30 season was likely to bring 14-23 named storms, with eight to 14 strengthening to hurricanes. “If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of our predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record,” the agency said. This is in stark contrast to last year, the quietest in 12 years.

Hurricanes wield significant influence in commodity markets, triggering wild price moves. Katrina and Rita forced shutdowns of natural gas and oil production and refinery activity along the Gulf coast, sending energy prices sharply higher. Charley, Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005 inflicted lasting damage to Florida’s citrus industry, helping push orange juice futures to a record high.

David Streit, meteorologist with Commodity Weather Group, said: “Any time you have an active season, it’s going to make for active markets.”

West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, rose to $74.4 a barrel, up nearly 4 per cent on the day, and recovering sharply from two weeks of falls. Oil futures for September, the traditional peak of the hurricane season, surged even higher.

NOAA cited a current potent recipe for hurricanes: record warm sea surface temperatures, potentially neutral conditions for El Niño, the weather-altering Pacific warming, and a combination of a wetter West Africa and a drier Amazon.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

[Logen Ninefingers]

And this is tipped to push up oil prices as well......

Barack Obama orders six-month freeze on offshore drilling and expansion

Barack Obama reversed a planned expansion of offshore drilling today, admitting he had been wrong to believe that oil companies were prepared to deal with a catastrophic oil spill.

He told a White House press conference he was ordering a six-month freeze on the opening up of the remote waters of the Arctic to oil exploration and on the drilling of 33 deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico. Proposed lease sales off the coast of Virginia and in the western Gulf would also be cancelled.

The US president said he was calling the pause to plans by Royal Dutch Shell to begin drilling exploratory wells in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, after studying an interior department review of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

He acknowledged that the enormity of the Gulf oil spill had forced a change in his earlier thinking that offshore drilling was safe and should remain a vital part of America's energy mix. "Where I was wrong was in my belief that the oil companies had their act together when it came to worst-case scenarios," he said. "It just takes one to have a wake-up call."

The announcement represents a retreat from Obama's proposal last March to expand offshore oil drilling. It was overshadowed in part by the president's moves to assert his command over the oil spill and appease critics who say his government has yielded to BP too much authority over plans to plug the well and clean up the environmental damage.

The president, who said repeatedly he remained in command of the disaster, also defended that earlier decision. He acknowledged he had underestimated the scale of corruption and dysfunction in the government agency charged with oversight of the offshore oil industry, the Minerals Management Service. "There has been a scandalously close relationship between oil companies and the agency that regulates them," Obama said.

His administration had started cleaning up the agency, notorious for sex and drug parties in the George Bush era. But "the culture had not fully changed at MMS. And I take responsibility for that," he said.

"We have to make sure if we are going forward with domestic oil production that the federal agency overseeings its safety and security is operating at the highest level."

The six-month halt in drilling falls short of the outright ban sought by Democratic members of Congress on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and by environmental organisations. Conservationists said they hoped the review of environmental and safety regulations also discussed by Obama would lead to better protection, especially for the Arctic.

"The greatest risk had been the exploratory wells that Shell wanted to move forward with up in the Arctic, so we are particularly pleased the administration is putting forward a time-out," said Jeremy Symons, senior vice-president of the National Wildlife Federation. "It should give time to assess and learn the lessons from this in terms of drilling anywhere else."

Obama said he was basing his decision on the safety review conducted by the interior secretary, Ken Salazar.

The administration also imposed tougher safety standards on drilling rigs, ordering more rigorous testing of blow-out preventers and procedures for well control; both were seen as critical failures in the lead-up to the explosion.

The administration announced the exit of Elizabeth Birnbaum, the head of MMS. But the high-profile sacking is unlikely to satisfy calls for sweeping reform of an agency that has had overly close ties with the oil industry.

"She has only been the public face of MMS for 10 months," said Nick Rahall, who heads the house committee on natural resources which is investigating the oil disaster. "It must not be the end game of our efforts to get at the root cause of the problems in the MMS."

Obama is facing calls from conservationists to sack other senior MMS officials, including Sylvia Baca, who was appointed to the agency last June after being employed for more than eight years by BP in senior management positions.

[J R Ewing]

And this is tipped to push up oil prices as well......

Barack Obama orders six-month freeze on offshore drilling and expansion



This might be a good time to get some (cheap?) drilling rigs into NZ. Do we have any prospects that could be fast-tracked and drilled in that timeframe?

[notie]

This might be a good time to get some (cheap?) drilling rigs into NZ. Do we have any prospects that could be fast-tracked and drilled in that timeframe?

JR, I hope you aren't suggesting nzog are the company to do this work? I can't see it happening, they are too worried about the wells that have drilled that have been dry and are too scared to get into anything new......paralyzed by fear of failure

[arjay]

JR, I hope you aren't suggesting nzog are the company to do this work? I can't see it happening, they are too worried about the wells that have drilled that have been dry and are too scared to get into anything new......paralyzed by fear of failure

I'm certain this guy is Sniper.

[notie]

both nzo and awe share price dropped....bad news at the well

[Logen Ninefingers]

both nzo and awe share price dropped....bad news at the well

Buyer / seller bids at $1.38 this morning, up 2 cents on current price....good news at the well!!!(?)!!!

[blockhead]

So they had some repairs to carry out, dont know what that was. I bet the blow out valves are being very carefully installed !!



NZO
03/06/2010
MINE

REL: 1203 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Tui SW-2 Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

3 June 2010

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) advises that at 0600 hours today, the
Tui SW-2 well was preparing to run the BOP's (Blow Out Preventers). This has
been delayed because necessary repairs were held up by bad weather over the
last week. After the BOP's are operational, the forward plan is to drill
ahead in 8-1/2" hole from 1,573 metres to a total depth of 3,725 metres.

The Tui SW prospect is located in mining licence PMP 38158 in the offshore
Taranaki Basin and is adjacent to the producing Tui oilfield.

At the conclusion of drilling, Tui SW-2 will be cased and suspended as a
possible future gas injection well.

Kahu-1, to the east of the Tui oilfield, will be drilled immediately
following Tui SW-2.

[digger]

There is a sudden world wide interest in Blow Out Preventers.For the next 5 or so years safety will be paramount.After that the rot will slowly sink in and the world will go on another round of gradual slacking for another 5 or 6 years and then another blowout.The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history,so every 10 years or so we have to relearn the same thing.
This is the first NZO report were i have heard of a delay for the installation of the blow out preventer.

[Logen Ninefingers]

SP up 3 cents today, aye Notie. Good news from the well, aye Notie.

[J R Ewing]

JR, I hope you aren't suggesting nzog are the company to do this work? I can't see it happening, they are too worried about the wells that have drilled that have been dry and are too scared to get into anything new......paralyzed by fear of failure

I'm sure it's hard to put something together in that timeframe in the real world, but it does seem like it could be a good opportunity to drill a few wildcats!

[fabs]

This is the first NZO report were i have heard of a delay for the installation of the blow out prevent-er.[/QUOTE]

This drilling crew has an appalling maintenance and breakdown record, but they may have a lot experience in picking the symptoms of possible Gusher.
Hence the precaution, lets be positive against all odds.
CHEERS

[Logen Ninefingers]

Any sign of a drilling report? It's Friday and all.

[digger]

Any sign of a drilling report? It's Friday and all.

We had one yesterday so what are you talking about?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Oh yeah. The blow-off protectors or summit.

[blockhead]

I'm waiting for an observation from Notie, NOG and AWE both up today, why could that possibly be ??

[Logen Ninefingers]

I'm waiting for an observation from Notie, NOG and AWE both up today, why could that possibly be ??

More good news from the well!!!(?)!!!

[sptnz]

[some stuff about oil prices going up]

where can we buy US oil in NZ?

[Mr Tommy]

where can we buy US oil in NZ?

Oil is $74 USD again, but the NZD has fallen from 72c to 66c over the last month. Good for NZO returns, but wait for the pump price to start rising. Add in some more GST, and ETS, and we should have $2 a litre later this year.

Sptnz, I have a small bottle of Tui oil, about 100ml, are you interested ? Just kidding, I could never sell it. You could ask NZOG if they have any left, they gave them away at the last agm.

[friedegg]

oil oil oil

[BigBob]

NZO advises that TUI SW-2 has encountered hydrocarbons in the target sands.

Wireline logging over the next few days...

[dsurf]

yipee - buy buy buy

[blockhead]

Have a look at the buy prices on AWE, they like it !!!

[Logen Ninefingers]

Where's Notie? Bad news from the well, aye Notie?

[peat]

there was actually ample opportunity to buy and make quick profit following the posts on this thread

[bermuda]

Well done NZOG. Oil in the target sands.

[blockhead]

Blockie got in for a small helping @ $1.38

I guess we should acknowledge there were no leaks pre ann, we are never slow to point the digits when the price moves before such an ann

[neopoleII]

so they have oil shows............
but the well will be plugged and used for gas injection in the future...........
so if there is lots of oil....... i guess they will pump it first?
why use this well for gas injection when they could inject into the tui well?

[shambles]

Love it, this lifts the value of NZO's exposure to PPP also. Hopefully international oil prices keep bouncing off their lows and we can see the uptrend in NZO start resuming.
If Kahu - 1 comes up with the goods we could see some serious action.

[manxman]

I guess we should acknowledge there were no leaks pre ann, we are never slow to point the digits when the price moves before such an ann

Fair comment Blocky

[digger]

[QUOTE=neopoleII;307500]so they have oil shows............
but the well will be plugged and used for gas injection in the future...........
so if there is lots of oil....... i guess they will pump it first?


Excellent news and a very long time in coming. Somewhat expected as is apprasal and sure would be bad news if TUI SW-2 were dry.
Neopole exploration wells are not production wells.Note inTUI new production wells were drilled.The sizes are different and production wells now days are horzontally drilled. This will likely come later when needed. First we have to wait those few days for results to see how good it all is.
Bet NZO managment are as releaved as i am that hydrocarbons were found even if somewhat expected.

[Dr_Who]

They now need to put pressure on PRC management to deliver and you will have NZO sp heading north.

[Meddler]

Apologies for the obvious question, I'm very much a newcomer to following this whole oil exploration thing, but at this stage how significant a result is this?

Obviously presence of hydrocarbons is always going to be better than no presence. Would I be correct in my understanding though that at this stage this is simply an indication that there's something there that may or may not be commercially viable, making it a good result so far but certainly not yet a guaranteed success?

[notie]

Apologies for the obvious question, I'm very much a newcomer to following this whole oil exploration thing, but at this stage how significant a result is this?

Obviously presence of hydrocarbons is always going to be better than no presence. Would I be correct in my understanding though that at this stage this is simply an indication that there's something there that may or may not be commercially viable, making it a good result so far but certainly not yet a guaranteed success?

This result is not unexpected as this is an appraisal well. Pre-drill AWE were saying this would add another 5 million barrels oil.
It was always likely that this well would be successful in finding oil. The next well is much more risky but if it does find oil then it is a significant discovery as it potential means the oil extends much further east than previously though. if it is dry then it means the tui field isn't going to get much bigger.

as I have said before, the problem with nzo is they don't have any decent near term exploration projects on their books so if you own shares in them you are relaying on decisions made by companies like awe who operate most of the areas nzo are in.

[Rabbi]

Wireline logs will almost certainly confirm a ten metre Oil Column, which was the same as discovered at Tui
Amokura had a 12 metre column and Pateke was 13 metres.

But how many million barrels is the question, and I can't recall how they determine this.
The positives are that it should be developed quickly, and if it is anything like the other three the flow rate will be good. :D

[dsurf]

as I have said before, the problem with nzo is they don't have any decent near term exploration projects on their books so if you own shares in them you are relaying on decisions made by companies like awe who operate most of the areas nzo are in.

And well done NZO for choosing AWE - I personally don't mind at all another 625K barrels (assuming 5 mill added to reserves) at $US 74 / .66 = NZ$ 70 mill gross less say $20 barrel costs (floating tanker 10 + 10 for drilling & hookup) = 12.5 mill giving approx NZ$ 57.5 mill extra.

Good work AWE

[friedegg]

Pre-drill AWE were saying this would add another 5 million barrels oil.
all that hassle they would have been better off to go to florida with a container ship,a few hundred kiwis on the dole,and a heap of garden hose from mitre 10 for siphoning

[Logen Ninefingers]

And well done NZO for choosing AWE - I personally don't mind at all another 625K barrels (assuming 5 mill added to reserves) at $US 74 / .66 = NZ$ 70 mill gross less say $20 barrel costs (floating tanker 10 + 10 for drilling & hookup) = 12.5 mill giving approx NZ$ 57.5 mill extra.

Good work AWE

I agree, why gripe about who NZO are partnered with....things are looking good on this drill with Kahu up the sleeve. I don't see anything but positives over the last few months, Pikes so close now you almost taste it, Kupes on full stream, Kaupokonui shapes as an excellent prospect for the future. The only thing holding the SP back is the global economic situation, and that is subject to change.

[notie]

, Kaupokonui shapes as an excellent prospect for the future. .

If they ever drill it. nzo are way too scared to do something risky like that.

that prospect is a good joke.

their canterbury permits will be surrendered without another well.....watch

[dsurf]

If they ever drill it. nzo are way too scared to do something risky like that.

that prospect is a good joke.

their canterbury permits will be surrendered without another well.....watch

Notie - NZO have a stated reserves target looking ahead. They are very likely to be doing further drilling.

[J R Ewing]

Apologies for the obvious question, I'm very much a newcomer to following this whole oil exploration thing, but at this stage how significant a result is this?

Obviously presence of hydrocarbons is always going to be better than no presence. Would I be correct in my understanding though that at this stage this is simply an indication that there's something there that may or may not be commercially viable, making it a good result so far but certainly not yet a guaranteed success?

That's correct, but because we have the basic infrastructure in place, even a small find will be commercially viable. This is fairly positive news and indicates a likely increase in the recoverable potential of Tui, the shows will be an extension of the Tui field not a new one. If it were an isolated well, there would be much more doubt as a small find might not justify the development costs.

[digger]

If they ever drill it. nzo are way too scared to do something risky like that.

that prospect is a good joke.

their canterbury permits will be surrendered without another well.....watch


Notie,the watch naturally refers to keep an eye on how fast you will pull your comments when it does not turn out as you are now asserting.NZO will do careful due dilengence on the worth of drilling or otherwise and it will have nothing to do with your emotive position you are trying to display with the ''Too scared'' stuff. It will also depend on the next well or possible next two near TUI,as success here will undrpin the cash flow during these possible drills.

[dsurf]

I am far from an expert on the Ausi tax treatment of reserves, however my understanding is that there is a -ve effect on NPAT / EBIT when reserves are announced as the government allocates tax on future royalties or something similar. Would appreciate any accountants who know more.

However this means that reserves will likely always be understated in the Ausi tax jurisdiction & that any reserves upgrade which seems inevitable will occur very early in the new year. So I expect the real news about this drill is that the already understated reserves ( check out the life of field (recoverable reserves estimates versus actual production & a clear trend of deliberate understatement is obvious) will be far more after this drill. Expect a reserves upgrade Q1 for AWE ie Jul - Sep. I also suspect the 5m estimate can probaly be doubled.

[digger]

I am far from an expert on the Ausi tax treatment of reserves, however my understanding is that there is a -ve effect on NPAT / EBIT when reserves are announced as the government allocates tax on future royalties or something similar. Would appreciate any accountants who know more.

However this means that reserves will likely always be understated in the Ausi tax jurisdiction & that any reserves upgrade which seems inevitable will occur very early in the new year. So I expect the real news about this drill is that the already understated reserves ( check out the life of field (recoverable reserves estimates versus actual production & a clear trend of deliberate understatement is obvious) will be far more after this drill. Expect a reserves upgrade Q1 for AWE ie Jul - Sep. I also suspect the 5m estimate can probaly be doubled.

iNTERESTING, i had thought that tax policy only applied to AUS companies in AUS. If correct the way you are putting it then why even lift reserves next year. Why not wait until after it has been produced and then claim it a bit of suprise that it was there.That way you do not have to pay the tax until you have earned the money.

[Logen Ninefingers]

If they ever drill it. nzo are way too scared to do something risky like that.

that prospect is a good joke.

their canterbury permits will be surrendered without another well.....watch

I didn't see anyone being too scared to drill Hoki or Albacore. Paydirt wasn't struck on those particular drills but it only takes one strike to transform a company's whole outlook. Obviously they will farm-in partners for Kaupokonui, it's pretty standard for the oil biz. If other companies don't like the look of the data on the leads, they won't participate, but obviously they have done in the past and I see no reason why they wouldn't continue to work with NZO.
There's always a big risk associated with drilling these leads but the pay-offs can be huge too.

[dsurf]

iNTERESTING, i had thought that tax policy only applied to AUS companies in AUS. If correct the way you are putting it then why even lift reserves next year. Why not wait until after it has been produced and then claim it a bit of suprise that it was there.That way you do not have to pay the tax until you have earned the money.

AWE - the operator & therefore in charge of everything including releases & estimates etc is domiciled in AUS. They will have to lift reserves when basicly there is no choice eg doing development drilling or when production profile is way above "initial estimates" so as not to attract undue IRD interest. Also the market & SP etc likes additional reserves so there is a continual balancing act.

[manxman]

I am far from an expert on the Ausi tax treatment of reserves, however my understanding is that there is a -ve effect on NPAT / EBIT when reserves are announced as the government allocates tax on future royalties or something similar. Would appreciate any accountants who know more.



I AM NOT AN ACCOUNTANT but as I understand it, when reserves are recognized, the liability to pay royalties is immediately written into the accounts, although the royalties are not paid to the crown until the oil is actually produced. This has an immediate negative effect on paper earnings, but not on cash flow, and in fact may result in deferred payment of tax. There is no real incentive to under-declare reserves.

[digger]

I AM NOT AN ACCOUNTANT but as I understand it, when reserves are recognized, the liability to pay royalties is immediately written into the accounts, although the royalties are not paid to the crown until the oil is actually produced. This has an immediate negative effect on paper earnings, but not on cash flow, and in fact may result in deferred payment of tax. There is no real incentive to under-declare reserves.

Thanks Manxman for that interpretation.Have read other ways of seeing it so am not really sure if you are correct. The problem is that if there is an incentive to under declare the company could hardly say so without getting into hot water with the IRD.

[COLIN]

Wonder if BP has paid tax on the stuff pouring into the Gulf of Mexico! Seems tough if producers have to pay money across to the Revenue before the liquid is actually captured - "there's many a slip between cup and lip", as the world is seeing.

[Corporate]

I AM NOT AN ACCOUNTANT but as I understand it, when reserves are recognized, the liability to pay royalties is immediately written into the accounts, although the royalties are not paid to the crown until the oil is actually produced. This has an immediate negative effect on paper earnings, but not on cash flow, and in fact may result in deferred payment of tax. There is no real incentive to under-declare reserves.

This is nonsense. A liability is only recognised when there is a present obligation. In this case there is no obligation to pay a royalty until the crude is sold. Changes in reserves have nothing to do with it.

[Corporate]

I am far from an expert on the Ausi tax treatment of reserves, however my understanding is that there is a -ve effect on NPAT / EBIT when reserves are announced as the government allocates tax on future royalties or something similar. Would appreciate any accountants who know more.


The amount of Tui reserves has anything to do with Australian royalties. This is because AWE will only pay the New Zealand government royalties for Tui production.

The calculation of royalties in New Zealand has nothing to do with in ground reserves.

[Corporate]

iNTERESTING, i had thought that tax policy only applied to AUS companies in AUS. If correct the way you are putting it then why even lift reserves next year. Why not wait until after it has been produced and then claim it a bit of suprise that it was there.That way you do not have to pay the tax until you have earned the money.

Raising reserves will actually have a positive affect on EBIT. The reason for this is that most oil and gas companies depreciated their production assets using the units of production method. The calculation is: Depreciation = Book value of assets x (Units of production / Reserves). If you raise the denominator i.e. reserves, you get a lower depreciation figure for the year.

[digger]

Raising reserves will actually have a positive affect on EBIT. The reason for this is that most oil and gas companies depreciated their production assets using the units of production method. The calculation is: Depreciation = Book value of assets x (Units of production / Reserves). If you raise the denominator i.e. reserves, you get a lower depreciation figure for the year.

Technically you are correct Corporate IMHO,but now the question becomes is reducing depreciation in any one year more important than the raised tax lilability for AWE if in this NZ case if in fact it holds.You see for me i still do not know if AWE is subject to increased tax in just AUS or is it a world wide tax problem for a AUS company investing anywhere. IF it is the case AWE will still have some incentive to not raise reserves too much. In fact i think this is the case as i noted last year that TUI reserves were raised from a total of 50 million to only 50.1 million but to keep it low they dropped out one of the production wells not yet in use.To me that smells of a concern on AWE's part to avoid raising reserves .This is all a concern now as with TUI-2 south west the extractable amount will be down played if the reserve lilability is to come into play and then it might have a greater effect than the reducted depreciation that Corporate has outlined. I do not know.

[Corporate]

Technically you are correct Corporate IMHO,but now the question becomes is reducing depreciation in any one year more important than the raised tax lilability for AWE if in this NZ case if in fact it holds.You see for me i still do not know if AWE is subject to increased tax in just AUS or is it a world wide tax problem for a AUS company investing anywhere. IF it is the case AWE will still have some incentive to not raise reserves too much. In fact i think this is the case as i noted last year that TUI reserves were raised from a total of 50 million to only 50.1 million but to keep it low they dropped out one of the production wells not yet in use.To me that smells of a concern on AWE's part to avoid raising reserves .This is all a concern now as with TUI-2 south west the extractable amount will be down played if the reserve lilability is to come into play and then it might have a greater effect than the reducted depreciation that Corporate has outlined. I do not know.

I think you guys are reading to much into this..there are strict rules around recognising reserves and it isn't a simple process.

In relation to tax expense it is made up of two aspects. One is deferred tax and the other is current.

(1) Deferred tax is calculated on the difference between the carrying amount of an asset for accounting purposes and the carrying amount of the same asset for tax purposes. An example of this is when you depreciate assets faster for tax than you do for accounting purposes.

The simple fact is that reserve do not get recognised in the balance sheet, and therefore there is no deferred tax implications to the reserves themselves.

(2) Current tax is calculated based on your assessable income less allowable deductions.

Since reserves don't effect the recognition of revenue or deductible expenses (except as mentioned in relation to depreciation) there is no impact on the current tax calculation.

[Pipeline]

Technically you are correct Corporate IMHO,but now the question becomes is reducing depreciation in any one year more important than the raised tax lilability for AWE if in this NZ case if in fact it holds.You see for me i still do not know if AWE is subject to increased tax in just AUS or is it a world wide tax problem for a AUS company investing anywhere. IF it is the case AWE will still have some incentive to not raise reserves too much. In fact i think this is the case as i noted last year that TUI reserves were raised from a total of 50 million to only 50.1 million but to keep it low they dropped out one of the production wells not yet in use.To me that smells of a concern on AWE's part to avoid raising reserves .This is all a concern now as with TUI-2 south west the extractable amount will be down played if the reserve lilability is to come into play and then it might have a greater effect than the reducted depreciation that Corporate has outlined. I do not know.

Digger

You just accused AWE of manipulating Tui oil reserves. If you are correct, PPP and NZOG are complicit, as they have accepted the reserves and used them for their own purposes.

That is laughable.

Pipe

[digger]

Digger

You just accused AWE of manipulating Tui oil reserves. If you are correct, PPP and NZOG are complicit, as they have accepted the reserves and used them for their own purposes.

That is laughable.

Pipe

It is not a matter of manippulation,but a focus on what happens in reality.AWE will assess the range of TUI but no one will ever know the final result until the well is no longer a producer. Now that IRD has poked its nose in it would make logical sence to select the best point in that range that makes the best buisnees decision. With outside interference we can no longer assume it is the mid point of the recoverable oil range.Also there is simple no way to varify or disprove the value AWE selects.
These thoughts have been generated as I and it seems a few other are not in full understanding of the role that IRD plays.If none then i would expect AWE to pick the mid point of the range. IF any oil company has to pay tax prior to earnings and those earnings are on reserves then i would expect the lower end of the resource to be written in.

[Corporate]

IF any oil company has to pay tax prior to earnings and those earnings are on reserves then i would expect the lower end of the resource to be written in.

Digger, all this talk about tax on reserves is astounding me. Maybe I've missed a key part of the discussion. Could you please point me in the direction of further information on this reserve tax? Or are you talking about the Australian super profits tax on resource companies?

[digger]

Digger, all this talk about tax on reserves is astounding me. Maybe I've missed a key part of the discussion. Could you please point me in the direction of further information on this reserve tax? Or are you talking about the Australian super profits tax on resource companies?

There was something announced about two years ago relating to resource discovery having to have a tax lilability provision made at the time the discovery was made. This refered to AUS companies and at the time we did discuss if this would effect TUI as it is in NZ. The effect of the last TUI upgrade from 50 million to 50.1 million but dropping out one production line led me to think that that was the IRD provision kicking in.
I do not know the accounting requirements but it does look like the reserves will be booked in as low as possible.In fact it is from others i had hoped to get this cleared up.My daughter is an accountant so looks like i will have to ask her.

[fish]

Hi Digger ,

The answer could possibly lie in the petroleum resource rental tax imposed on Australian companies operating in Australia and commonwealth countries .

http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_03/er03_pettax.pdf

I have quickly skimmed parts of it but havnt the financial training or time to fully understand it .

On a separate issue AWE has stated that the current drill could end up as a gas injection well .
Am I correct in thinking that this could push oil from tui sw into TUI and therefore increase oil production and decrease water without the need to do another productin well ?

[Pipeline]

Digger

The well you refer to was Tui-4H which was planned, but not drilled as the GFC and oil price decline led to it not being economic. I also recall that it was never booked as reserves.

There is no relation at all to reserve revisions and current tax liabilities.

Reserves are calculated by the engineers (AWE) and they would have no impact at all on the tax planning (AWE, NZOG and PPP). That is left to the accountants.

To assume that these are related and are manipulated is an error.

I also should also add that Mitsui are a big part of this JV and they also would not cop any manipulation.

To be clear, I do not hold NZOG shares, but I own lots of AWE.

Pipe

[digger]

Digger

The well you refer to was Tui-4H which was planned, but not drilled as the GFC and oil price decline led to it not being economic. I also recall that it was never booked as reserves.

There is no relation at all to reserve revisions and current tax liabilities.

Reserves are calculated by the engineers (AWE) and they would have no impact at all on the tax planning (AWE, NZOG and PPP). That is left to the accountants.

To assume that these are related and are manipulated is an error.

I also should also add that Mitsui are a big part of this JV and they also would not cop any manipulation.

To be clear, I do not hold NZOG shares, but I own lots of AWE.

Pipe

Thanks pipeline,i do not know the accounting side but there was something about two years ago so i will look into it.

[digger]

Hi Digger ,

The answer could possibly lie in the petroleum resource rental tax imposed on Australian companies operating in Australia and commonwealth countries .


On a separate issue AWE has stated that the current drill could end up as a gas injection well .
Am I correct in thinking that this could push oil from tui sw into TUI and therefore increase oil production and decrease water without the need to do another productin well ?

Interesting but we have to wait until we get the facts from TUI sw. Like what is the oil water intersept. Is it the same as the tui field? And is this field linked up to TUI. If not it will be inpossible to drive the oil out of TUISw to TUI. Remember TUI and AMokura have different oil water intersept levels so are different fields. Yet it is strange that Pateke and Amokura have the same oil water levels and were first thought to be linked up but the idea was later dropped.
I thought the idea of injecting the gas back into the well was to save the gas and meet requirements set as we have all but run out of rights to dispose it into the atmostphere[flaring] Also your idea if correct would surely only work if TUI SW were located at the furtherest end of the field away from TUI.. Otherwise some of the oil would be forced the other way.TUI SW plainly is not at the end of the field as it has 10 metres of oil.
After the next drilling report lets bring this idea up if it is not spellt out then,and clarify the plan.

[Mr Tommy]

Just out ... Tui SW is a dud ...

The Operator, AWE Limited, advises that wireline logging is still in progress
at the Tui SW-2 exploration well.
Wireline evaluation of the previously reported oil shows in the top of the
F Sand has established that an economic accumulation of oil is not present at
the Tui SW-2 location. Upon completion of wireline logging operations the
7" liner will be run so that the well can be used for possible future gas
injection.

[digger]

Just out ... Tui SW is a dud ...

The Operator, AWE Limited, advises that wireline logging is still in progress
at the Tui SW-2 exploration well.
Wireline evaluation of the previously reported oil shows in the top of the
F Sand has established that an economic accumulation of oil is not present at
the Tui SW-2 location. Upon completion of wireline logging operations the
7" liner will be run so that the well can be used for possible future gas
injection.

Very bad news Mr Tommy,but how did you get this news before a stock exchange release?

[blockhead]

Buggar ....

[boysy]

8:30 am, 14 Jun PPP MINE Tui SW-2 exploration drilling update - ppp had the update out at 8-30

http://www.nzx.com/markets/announcements

[Mr Tommy]

Very bad news Mr Tommy,but how did you get this news before a stock exchange release?

I got an email from PPP at 9:06, and one from NZO at 9:47, so both before the market opened.

[boysy]

Shares in listed New Zealand oil and gas companies exploring the Tui prospect fell immediately the NZX opened this morning, following announcement that "an economic accumulation of hydocarbons is not present" at the Tui SW-2 exploration well.

New Zealand Oil & Gas, a 12.5 percent partner in the well, fell 2.8 percent to $1.39, while shares in 10 percent partner Pan Pacific Petroleum fell 3.7 percent to 26 cents.

Shares in PPP and NZOG both rose last week when initial drilling reports found hydrocarbon shows.

There had been hopes that a commercially viable 10 metre oil column may have been found.

The well will now be converted to allow gas injection from the main Tui field, as was always intended, NZOG spokesman Chris Roberts told BusinessWire.

The Kan Tan IV drilling rig will now move several kilometres to the south-east to drill the Kahu-1 exploration well for the same partners.

The Tui South West prospect is located in mining licence PMP 38158, adjacent to the producing Tui oil field.

The field operator is ASX-listed AWE Ltd at 42.5 percent, and Mitsui E&P Pty Ltd is a 35 percent participant in the two well campaign.

[Wiremu]

Digger is correct on the effect of changes in accounting. What he is talking about is the effect of the introduction of IFRS, which took place a year earlier in Australia than it did in New Zealand. I can't recall what the exact technical issue is, but it showed out in PPP as it was before the income flows from Tui. NZOG one year later did not seem to suffer as badly as the effect was covered by the income from Tui. However the new treatment applied to both, remembering that a lot of IFRS doesn't appear to be logical.

[digger]

Digger is correct on the effect of changes in accounting. What he is talking about is the effect of the introduction of IFRS, which took place a year earlier in Australia than it did in New Zealand. I can't recall what the exact technical issue is, but it showed out in PPP as it was before the income flows from Tui. NZOG one year later did not seem to suffer as badly as the effect was covered by the income from Tui. However the new treatment applied to both, remembering that a lot of IFRS doesn't appear to be logical.

Thanks Wiremu i knew it was there somewhere,as it was discused a few years ago.So now do the three cup full of oil in TUISW now get blown into TUI as fish has suggested. If so no need to pay tax in advance as it is accidential and certainly not expected.
OK Mr Tommy so that is how it came about so quickly.
Market did not like that news,nor do i.

[digger]

Digger is correct on the effect of changes in accounting. What he is talking about is the effect of the introduction of IFRS, which took place a year earlier in Australia than it did in New Zealand. I can't recall what the exact technical issue is, but it showed out in PPP as it was before the income flows from Tui. NZOG one year later did not seem to suffer as badly as the effect was covered by the income from Tui. However the new treatment applied to both, remembering that a lot of IFRS doesn't appear to be logical.

Back to this Wiremu.That is somewhat as i recall it and the current extra tax on resources seem to be an extension of the same lack of logic you find in the IFRS. I would like to find out more of this scheme.First what does IFRS stand for and can you direct me to any web site that covers it.My strong suspion is that the AUS are on the tax side killing off the resource sector and we are getting hit on the sideswipe.

[Corporate]

Digger is correct on the effect of changes in accounting. What he is talking about is the effect of the introduction of IFRS, which took place a year earlier in Australia than it did in New Zealand. I can't recall what the exact technical issue is, but it showed out in PPP as it was before the income flows from Tui. NZOG one year later did not seem to suffer as badly as the effect was covered by the income from Tui. However the new treatment applied to both, remembering that a lot of IFRS doesn't appear to be logical.

Have you got the link to this?

[notie]

Have you got the link to this?

probably not so important given that tui sw2 is uneconomic.

not sure what was going on out there, but to report 10m of oil in sands before they fully assessed them then doing another release saying that they were no good isn't a great way to instill confidence in the market.

3/4 well this season are dusters.....not a great record for nzog

[Corporate]

probably not so important given that tui sw2 is uneconomic.

not sure what was going on out there, but to report 10m of oil in sands before they fully assessed them then doing another release saying that they were no good isn't a great way to instill confidence in the market.

3/4 well this season are dusters.....not a great record for nzog

From a learning perspective I'm interested to know what this IFRS adjustment was. And if it did really relate to reserves - which I'm doubtful.

Your right. One last shot on this drill campaign.

[COLIN]

I got more and more disenchanted with this lot, after they showed so much earlier promise, and gradually ran down my exposure during 2008/09. I know that the old "1 in 10" success rate is regarded as about the norm for the petroleum exploration industry but this crowd have produced NOTHING of real value by way of discoveries since the initial TUI success some years ago (how many?) and I have little confidence that the next few years will be much different. If they expect to be taken seriously by investors they should have a whole "bank" of drillable prospects lined up.

And then there is the PIKE fiasco. I enjoyed riding the PIKE share price hill-climb while that was happening, but was also happy to take the money and jump off when it became obvious that things weren't going according to plan. I have little faith that the current target dates will be met.

There is KUPE, of course, but precious ,little else. PPP's fortune's are mainly tied to TUI, a steadily declining field. Good luck to all the faithful long-suffering holders of NZO and PRC - you're going to need it.

[Balance]

I got more and more disenchanted with this lot, after they showed so much earlier promise, and gradually ran down my exposure during 2008/09. I know that the old "1 in 10" success rate is regarded as about the norm for the petroleum exploration industry but this crowd have produced NOTHING of real value by way of discoveries since the initial TUI success some years ago (how many?) and I have little confidence that the next few years will be much different. If they expect to be taken seriously by investors they should have a whole "bank" of drillable prospects lined up.

And then there is the PIKE fiasco. I enjoyed riding the PIKE share price hill-climb while that was happening, but was also happy to take the money and jump off when it became obvious that things weren't going according to plan. I have little faith that the current target dates will be met.

There is KUPE, of course, but precious ,little else. PPP's fortune's are mainly tied to TUI, a steadily declining field. Good luck to all the faithful long-suffering holders of NZO and PRC - you're going to need it.

Careful - they are assembling a mob to haul you to the stake. You are a heretic and deserving of no mercy.

[Sideshow Bob]

Careful - they are assembling a mob to haul you to the stake. You are a heretic and deserving of no mercy.

I would say that Colin's position would mirror many readers attitude at present, to a greater or lesser degree. Sure market sentiment isn't helping share price, but Pike has been a real test of patience and NZO hasn't really moved forward in the last year or so, save Kupe. Most of us live in hope.

[shasta]

From a learning perspective I'm interested to know what this IFRS adjustment was. And if it did really relate to reserves - which I'm doubtful.

Your right. One last shot on this drill campaign.

Remember the NZO board has the ambitious targets of 2mmboe annual production, & P1 (or 2) reserves of 25mmbo

[fabs]

Without Prejudice!
It seems possible, that the group of individuals, with the 400 years of experience are resting on the laurels of there past [achievements?] and are happy to collect as long as they are let to do so, or leave when the coffers are running low.
The present mix have had now quite a run to prove them self, unless [Luck?] redeems them with the last drill in the present series, some heavy pruning has to be done and the quicker the better.

[BigBob]

From NZOG.com: "June 2010: Forsyth Barr issued an updated research note on 14 June 2010 which values NZOG at NZ$1.77 per share with a buy recommendation."

Has anyone seen this report...?

[KentBrockman]

From NZOG.com: "June 2010: Forsyth Barr issued an updated research note on 14 June 2010 which values NZOG at NZ$1.77 per share with a buy recommendation."

Has anyone seen this report...?

lol...haven't followed FB recently, but in the old days my rule was 'do exactly the opposite of FB's recommendation, and you'll be fine'.

[neopoleII]

there are still the millions of 1 cent partly paid shares in the hands of staff out there as well.........
i guess there will be no dilution for the next wee while.

it will be interesting to see what kupe adds to the coffers in the near future.

i guess the divi stream will also be a trickle.

with interest rates on an upward cycle again, bank rates are looking better than nzo stock.

i truely wonder sometimes what company board members think of longterm shareholders?
the shareholders keep the company afloat, and the board and speculators reap the rewards.

[Balance]

Hero to zero - because they hit dry wells.

Guys - this is the game that they are in.

If they hit a gusher, sp will be $2.00 and they will go from zero to hero again.

[Logen Ninefingers]

probably not so important given that tui sw2 is uneconomic.

not sure what was going on out there, but to report 10m of oil in sands before they fully assessed them then doing another release saying that they were no good isn't a great way to instill confidence in the market.

3/4 well this season are dusters.....not a great record for nzog

bad news from the well, aye Notie.
10m of oil in the sands! - Pump
not a commercial find - Dump

[notie]

bad news from the well, aye Notie.
10m of oil in the sands! - Pump
not a commercial find - Dump

I had said the tui sw well was the most likely of the two tui wells to find oil, so that leaves the more risky kahu well.

[fish]

From NZOG.com: "June 2010: Forsyth Barr issued an updated research note on 14 June 2010 which values NZOG at NZ$1.77 per share with a buy recommendation."

Has anyone seen this report...?

No -but it sure sounds good when all we see is the share price falling and pessimistic posting .
As far as my perception goes AWE has been saying for some time that this drill was likely to become a gas injection well . Hydrocarbons were found -just not enough at current prices to extract to make it a better proposition than injecting gas . Being a small collection in a small entrapment it could be well suited to storing the gas they will soon be prohibited from flaring .
Hopefully in this current drilling season they have saved the best for last-it aint over til the fat lady sings !
Am also hoping the rig gets moved in the next 3 days when there should be a weather window

[fabs]

BALANCE,,
i can live with the nature and odds of exploration, but this co. is by its relative overall performance too top heavy, seems to lack energy,vision and innovation amongst quite a view other things and yes i can see why a lot are quitting and more will get out, if this is not addressed.
Meanwhile the cost of keeping them may not be justified for much longer.

[stanace]

$69220, 123 trades on the ASX today. Average $562. Is this some kind of market manipulation? Surely the brokerage would make this unrealistic.

[the machine]

$69220, 123 trades on the ASX today. Average $562. Is this some kind of market manipulation? Surely the brokerage would make this unrealistic.

computer generated trading by a broker one would guess

M

[Logen Ninefingers]

Any word on where the Kan Tan IV is in respect to Kahu 1?

[Bilo]

$69220, 123 trades on the ASX today. Average $562. Is this some kind of market manipulation? Surely the brokerage would make this unrealistic.

They pay a special rate based on turnover, not per trade. "Bot" trading is totally unfair to the smaller investor ..... favours off market positions, derivatives, index trading, increases SP variation especially when they pull the rug out from under margin traders at every excuse ....

[Logen Ninefingers]

Oil prices rise
Reuters Last updated 15:44 21/06/2010fers

Crude prices rose 1.4 percent today to the highest levels since mid May after China vowed to allow a flexible yuan exchange rate, raising expectations of higher crude imports by the world's No. 2 oil user.
US crude for July delivery rose as much as US$1.09 to US$78.27, the highest since May 10. It temporarily pared gains as did stock markets after China on Monday set the yuan mid-point unchanged from Friday, and was up 97 cents at US$78.15 at 0204 GMT.
A stronger yuan against the greenback may render Chinese imports of dollar-denominated oil cheaper, fanning energy consumption, analysts including Ben Westmore, from National Australia Bank said.
"China is important for the global oil market and an appreciating yuan is going to help fuel its imports," said Westmore.
"The natural implication of a re-valuation is that your import prices are falling. If you expect inflation to be kept under control, authorities won't need to tighten and that will have a comparatively stimulatory impact on the domestic economy."
China announced on Saturday that it would resume making the yuan flexible, signalling that it was ready to break a 23-month-old peg to the dollar that had come under intense international criticism.
But in a lengthy statement about how reform would proceed, the central bank explicitly ruled out a one-off revaluation, repeatedly said there was no basis for any big appreciation and added that the currency's value was not far off its fair level.
"You are going to struggle to see oil break to the upside without a great deal of clarity about the euro situation yet," Westmore said, adding prices were unlikely to surpass their early-May 19-month peak above US$87 before the end of the year.
US crude has recovered about 21 percent from a trough below US$65 a month ago, but is still US$9 lower than the 2010 peak.
ICE Brent crude for August rose as much as US$1.17 to US$79.39 a barrel on Monday, the highest price since May 14, and was up US$1.11 at US$79.33.

[notie]

so the rising oil price resulted in nzo share's going down 3c.....

[Logen Ninefingers]

so the rising oil price resulted in nzo share's going down 3c.....

...and Pike's share price is going up as people anticipate steady production becoming a reality, but their 30% owners SP dips.
I think the failure of the drilling program so far has stuffed up the SP.....meanwhile there are plenty of positives with this company, not least the revenue streams from Tui and Kupe soon to be joined by revenues from Pike.

[geezy]

only PIKE can save NZO now

[arjay]

only PIKE can save NZO now

While most of us are hopeful for Kahu I suspect many have written off this years exploration already. The problem as I see it is that NZO has not made a commercial discovery since Eric Matthews left the company. Many unsuccessful drills have been completed since then and it follows that if the logic processes used to determine participation in all the unsuccessful drills made over the last few years are the same as those used for Kahu then we can expect the same pattern of results to continue. Of course, we might be lucky or perhaps fresh thinking was used wrt to Kahu.

[Logen Ninefingers]

While most of us are hopeful for Kahu I suspect many have written off this years exploration already. The problem as I see it is that NZO has not made a commercial discovery since Eric Matthews left the company. Many unsuccessful drills have been completed since then and it follows that if the logic processes used to determine participation in all the unsuccessful drills made over the last few years are the same as those used for Kahu then we can expect the same pattern of results to continue. Of course, we might be lucky or perhaps fresh thinking was used wrt to Kahu.

Ok, so there have been some unsuccessful drills & this is creating a false despondency around NZO. Tui will wind down over the coming years, but Kupe is new and Pike is set to come on-stream. So that means that NZO are not in the desperate position of having to find new oil field's asap or face a bleak future. Sure, if they only had the Tui revenues then there would be a real sense of urgency about finding new oil fields but the oil & gas out of Kupe and coal out of Pike mean that they are in a strong position. The lifespan of Kupe is estimated at 19 years & Pike is also estimated to last 19 to 20 years.

[Bilo]

"The problem as I see it is that NZO has not made a commercial discovery since Eric Matthews left the company. Many unsuccessful drills have been completed since then and it follows that if the logic processes used to determine participation in all the unsuccessful drills made over the last few years are the same as those used for Kahu then we can expect the same pattern of results to continue."

Arjay I would be tempted to put a different spin on Eric Mathews' involvement. He didn't leave the consortium as he went to AWE, where he has a much bigger say in where, what and when NZO drills. And he has yet to pull out a success since then - for his future he will be hoping that Kahu will be their best possible shot. One could expect that this time he is drilling what he thinks is the best chance of keeping his lucrative job.

He couldn't figure out how he missed at Tieke so Kahu is his last chance. Enough rope in this tough industry IMO.

[J R Ewing]

Of course, it might just be that there isn't much oil/gas out there to find. I think it is more reasonable to assume that we have and are drilling what appear to be the best prospects, rather than assume the lack of success is down to incompetent management within NZO and its partners.

[friedegg]

ppp had cash around 31/3/10 of $82m au,thier sp today is around $105m,looks like thier future isnt too rosy,are they worth a punt now for nzo,just for the remainder of there reserves?

[Hoop]

TA charts have mixed reactions with many investors on a mining/oil thread as to their TA worth.....so with some of you this post may not go down well.
TA is not an exact science [note the false TA signals..Bull traps] but a series of tools to improve your investing chances towards success)

That aside..

I have produced a one year chart that compares both NZX50 index and the NZO price, with both starting equal one year ago.
As you see NZO has failed to keep up with the NZX50 index. If NZO was performing equivalent to the NZX50 today that share price would be at $1.79 not $1.33.

No wonder the NZO shareholders are grizzling...so would I.

Unfortunately many shareholders with a portfolio heavily weighted in NZO during this past year would've missed part of the once in a decade equity boom opportunity.

NZO will come right they say with Kupe /Pike etc...yes it may and at some future time there is a good chance it will.. but at this moment in time the NZX50/NZO gap is widening and the NZO is breaking negatively as well as the NZX50 finding it hard to break through its primary resistance of the 3060 zone to get out of its own bear market zone.
Some may be saying its time to buy .....not me.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX50NZO21062010.png

[Bilo]

Nice one Hoop. I think this reflects the company taking shareholder money at $1.50, and holding onto it when they had no intention of using it, making poor decisions on currency, and stopping dividends when they had the cash and future income streams. It seems they have preferred to look after their own future directorship and executive salaries while not rewarding shareholders for the past successes that have been there. It is a competitive market for investment funds and NZO have had their heads in the sand.

But at $1.30 the company is going cheap - shorters act with impunity when they can play between derivatives and the NZX - bots and the dual listing will leave the the SP wide open to manipulation, unless someone of size decides to support it - forlorn hope perhaps.

[777]

Where have they said they are stopping dividends Bilo?

[Logen Ninefingers]

and stopping dividends when they had the cash and future income streams.

They paid a dividend last year.

[Bilo]

They paid a dividend last year.

Sorry 777 & Logen9, they haven't yet. They did pay 5cps Oct last year I lost in re-investment but it was reduced from previously when they gave us a bonus 5cps. They are due to announce any dividend with their annual result - late August perhaps?

[J R Ewing]

Down to $1.28 now, perhaps NZO has caught whatever is afflicting PPP?

[777]

Called "lack of interest". Now to to try and pick the bottom.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Down to $1.28 now, perhaps NZO has caught whatever is afflicting PPP?

Maybe it's guilt by association, but I think PPP are in a totally different situation. The market seems to have the jitters in general. All the usual suspects usually under discussion, such as PGC and PRC, seem to be on the downward spiral today.

[BigBob]

From 10 days ago...:

Immediately following completion of operations at Tui SW-2, the drilling rig
Kan Tan IV will move a few kilometres to the northeast to drill the Kahu-1
well. The prospectivity of Kahu-1 is not affected by the results of Tui SW-2.

Shouldn't we expect them to release something to say that they have either spudded or moved the rig or at least completed TUI... or that they have been delayed (again)...???

[blockhead]

And given the direction the sp is heading many shareholders will be wondering if the Kan Tan 4 has sunk and knocked a previously unheard of blowout valve off on the way down.

My oil fortune is becoming an even hazier dream than it earlier was

[Logen Ninefingers]

From 10 days ago...:

Immediately following completion of operations at Tui SW-2, the drilling rig
Kan Tan IV will move a few kilometres to the northeast to drill the Kahu-1
well. The prospectivity of Kahu-1 is not affected by the results of Tui SW-2.

Shouldn't we expect them to release something to say that they have either spudded or moved the rig or at least completed TUI... or that they have been delayed (again)...???

It's bloody frustrating alright....some news would be much appreciated by their shareholders. Companies have news flying in all directions when they want you to participate in a new capital raising...i.e. get their hands on some of your dosh. The rest of the time they are content to leave you twisting in the wind.

[boysy]

didnt nzo win an award for disclosure last year seems a bit of a joke in retrospect now doesnt it ?

[Logen Ninefingers]

I don't get it....Kupe's out of it's commissioning phase and they have the revenues rolling in from 3 different sources from this project: light crude, natural gas, LPG.
We have PRC, 30% owned by NZO, set to move there next shipment of 20,000 tonnes of coal next month, and after that hit steady state production through the introduction of hydro-mining in the July/September quarter.
So because the drilling program for the summer failed to find oil (so far) that means that the SP should crash and burn? I just wonder if the SP is being manipulated downwards in some way so powerful interests can hoover up cheap shares. The drilling program is just a big smokescreen or justification for an SP slump, but surely the company has never been in a stronger revenue generating position than they are now - they have revenue streams in place for the next 20 years, they don't need to develop a new oilfield asap, this drilling program was just meant to boost their reserves even further.

[BigBob]

I don't get it....Kupe's out of it's commissioning phase and they have the revenues rolling in from 3 different sources from this project: light crude, natural gas, LPG.
We have PRC, 30% owned by NZO, set to move there next shipment of 20,000 tonnes of coal next month, and after that hit steady state production through the introduction of hydro-mining in the July/September quarter.
So because the drilling program for the summer failed to find oil (so far) that means that the SP should crash and burn? I just wonder if the SP is being manipulated downwards in some way so powerful interests can hoover up cheap shares. The drilling program is just a big smokescreen or justification for an SP slump, but surely the company has never been in a stronger revenue generating position than they are now - they have revenue streams in place for the next 20 years, they don't need to develop a new oilfield asap, this drilling program was just meant to boost their reserves even further.

Couldn't agree more...!

It's got to be a take-over target at these levels... maybe they will (after all their "screening" of other opportunities) do a share buyback... and they could pay a higher dividend while they are at it.... :o)

[Casa del Energia]

I don't get it....Kupe's out of it's commissioning phase and they have the revenues rolling in from 3 different sources from this project: light crude, natural gas, LPG.
We have PRC, 30% owned by NZO, set to move there next shipment of 20,000 tonnes of coal next month, and after that hit steady state production through the introduction of hydro-mining in the July/September quarter.
So because the drilling program for the summer failed to find oil (so far) that means that the SP should crash and burn? I just wonder if the SP is being manipulated downwards in some way so powerful interests can hoover up cheap shares. The drilling program is just a big smokescreen or justification for an SP slump, but surely the company has never been in a stronger revenue generating position than they are now - they have revenue streams in place for the next 20 years, they don't need to develop a new oilfield asap, this drilling program was just meant to boost their reserves even further.

I cannot remember the exact quotation - but it goes something like this -

The share market is like an irrational and over emotional business partner: half the time it wants to sell you
thier share of the business too cheaply, the other half, it wants to sell for an outrageous price.

And there is no logic to it. But that is little comfort when the sp is only just above NTA, I guess.

[Casa del Energia]

In a less synical frame of mind - the sp may reverse its downward trend, with Rudd stepping down and a present rally in Aust resources, the major NZ listed resources (all two of them) might benefit by being cheaper buys.

(But I'm still not mortaging the farm on the strength of that idea).

[boysy]

Tui-SW 2 update

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100624/pdf/31qzrtjcv82lmy.pdf

now onto kahu

[Logen Ninefingers]

.HALFYR: NZO: Interim Results
24 Feb 2010 09:35 NZX

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) has released its interim financial results
for the six months ended 31 December 2009.

Operating revenue for the period was NZ$37.7 million with a net loss after
tax of NZ$6.5 million.

All of the revenue was generated from NZOG''s 12.5% share in the highly
successful Tui area oil fields off the Taranaki coast. The net profit result
reflects the following key factors:
- Slowly reducing production (as expected) from Tui
- Lower average international oil prices
- Exploration write-off of NZ$10.9 million from the Albacore well
- NZ$4.2 million as an apportioned share of Pike River Coal''s reported
loss
- NZ$14.0 million in unrealised foreign exchange losses
- No revenue recognised from the Kupe field.

The unrealised foreign exchange losses arise from NZOG''s large US dollar cash
balance and the fluctuating exchange rate. If the NZD/USD cross rate remains
below 72c it is likely that NZOG will report foreign exchange gains in the
second half.
=============================

Ok, so they should be creaming foreign exchange gains because, except for a few days, we have been under 72c forever

NZD/USD Exchange rate - Historical data:

Date: Exchange rate:
2010-06-23 0.71029
2010-06-22 0.70594
2010-06-21 0.71422
2010-06-18 0.70343
2010-06-17 0.70137
2010-06-16 0.69554
2010-06-15 0.6938
2010-06-14 0.69644
2010-06-11 0.68821
2010-06-10 0.68105
2010-06-09 0.66904
2010-06-08 0.66201
2010-06-07 0.66747
2010-06-04 0.67993
2010-06-03 0.68552
2010-06-02 0.6766
2010-06-01 0.67318
2010-05-31 0.67919
2010-05-28 0.68175
2010-05-27 0.67143
2010-05-26 0.67185
2010-05-25 0.66163
2010-05-24 0.67068
2010-05-21 0.6699
2010-05-20 0.66989
2010-05-19 0.67749
2010-05-18 0.70187
2010-05-17 0.70089
2010-05-14 0.7109
2010-05-13 0.71762
2010-05-12 0.71883
2010-05-11 0.71639
2010-05-10 0.72664
2010-05-07 0.71338
2010-05-06 0.72543
2010-05-05 0.71744
2010-05-04 0.72535
2010-05-03 0.72977
2010-04-30 0.72943
2010-04-29 0.72283
2010-04-28 0.71691
2010-04-27 0.72017
2010-04-26 0.7233
2010-04-23 0.71174
2010-04-22 0.71107
2010-04-21 0.71091
2010-04-20 0.71125
2010-04-19 0.70825
2010-04-16 0.71338
2010-04-15 0.71389
2010-04-14 0.71324
2010-04-13 0.71264
2010-04-12 0.71226
2010-04-09 0.71199
2010-04-08 0.70219
2010-04-07 0.70526
2010-04-06 0.69789
2010-04-01 0.70406
2010-03-31 0.70853
2010-03-30 0.71239
2010-03-29 0.70934
2010-03-26 0.70372
2010-03-25 0.70978
2010-03-24 0.70089
2010-03-23 0.70507
2010-03-22 0.70143
2010-03-19 0.71137
2010-03-18 0.71646
2010-03-17 0.71549
2010-03-16 0.70457
2010-03-15 0.70041
2010-03-12 0.70309
2010-03-11 0.70068
2010-03-10 0.70657
2010-03-09 0.69766
2010-03-08 0.70216
2010-03-05 0.68916
2010-03-04 0.6894
2010-03-03 0.69009
2010-03-02 0.69684
2010-03-01 0.69566
2010-02-26 0.69415
2010-02-25 0.69036
2010-02-24 0.6916
2010-02-23 0.70046
2010-02-22 0.70302
2010-02-19 0.6941
2010-02-18 0.70085
2010-02-17 0.7076
2010-02-16 0.70287
2010-02-15 0.69744
2010-02-12 0.69387
2010-02-11 0.69872
2010-02-10 0.69299
2010-02-09 0.69226
2010-02-08 0.6867
2010-02-05 0.68931
2010-02-04 0.69656
2010-02-03 0.71129
2010-02-02 0.70725
2010-02-01 0.7036

[Logen Ninefingers]

Tui-SW 2 update

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100624/pdf/31qzrtjcv82lmy.pdf

now onto kahu

Ask and you shall receive?

I reckon the best thing to do would be not even look for more oil, give it up now & just change the company name to NZ Oil, Gas, & Coal and buy some more Pike. Why try to find extra oil reserves if every dry drill causes panic selling with every man and his dog flinging their shares away for a handful of magic beans?

[Bilo]

.....panic selling with every man and his dog flinging their shares away for a handful of magic beans?

Not every man and his dog Logen. The SP moves on very small volume.

There has been some evidence of loading up the sell side (IMO potentially stop loss orders) while forcing the SP down with derivative short selling - settled with off market puts/calls. When fundamentals mean nothing, TA rules, funds are not buying, liquidity is tight, the game reverts to dis-investment (force out weak holders and reduce small long term holders net worth and hence ability to buy on fundamentals) with all these fancy tools available to the clever peopleusing other peoples money. Is it our Kiwisaver super funds or the ACC who lends the shares to the shorters, LOL? There seems to be a squeeze on AWE as well as NZO.
Or it could be just one moderately sized seller who wants/needs to get out. Someone knows.

[Logen Ninefingers]

There has been some evidence of loading up the sell side (IMO potentially stop loss orders) while forcing the SP down with derivative short selling - settled with off market puts/calls. When fundamentals mean nothing, TA rules, funds are not buying, liquidity is tight, the game reverts to dis-investment (force out weak holders and reduce small long term holders net worth and hence ability to buy on fundamentals) with all these fancy tools available to the clever peopleusing other peoples money. Is it our Kiwisaver super funds or the ACC who lends the shares to the shorters, LOL? There seems to be a squeeze on AWE as well as NZO.
Or it could be just one moderately sized seller who wants/needs to get out. Someone knows.

Yeah, you're obviously on to it. This bot trading...it stinks and is a nasty little tool in the game. Yeah, manipulate the SP down on small volumes while picking anyone off who drops their nuts and throws their shares away for a song.

[geezy]

does today's update mean that TUI-SW2 will NO LONGER be used as a fuel injection well? as they used the word suspended? can anyone clarify? thanks

[COLIN]

does today's update mean that TUI-SW2 will NO LONGER be used as a fuel injection well? as they used the word suspended? can anyone clarify? thanks

I read it as suspension for later use as a gas injection well.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Aww geez, I just remembered that the only relevant exchange rates for accounting purposes are those applying on 30 June and 31 Dec. ...And that any gains or losses are 'unrealised' rather than being actual gains or losses.

[the machine]

I don't get it....Kupe's out of it's commissioning phase and they have the revenues rolling in from 3 different sources from this project: light crude, natural gas, LPG.
We have PRC, 30% owned by NZO, set to move there next shipment of 20,000 tonnes of coal next month, and after that hit steady state production through the introduction of hydro-mining in the July/September quarter.
So because the drilling program for the summer failed to find oil (so far) that means that the SP should crash and burn? I just wonder if the SP is being manipulated downwards in some way so powerful interests can hoover up cheap shares. The drilling program is just a big smokescreen or justification for an SP slump, but surely the company has never been in a stronger revenue generating position than they are now - they have revenue streams in place for the next 20 years, they don't need to develop a new oilfield asap, this drilling program was just meant to boost their reserves even further.

yes they are oversold - it could be tax selling in australia before june 30 on top of the dud drills.

I wonder if the gas reinjection hole was the first choice to drill or if the government told them to fix the flaring.

today i sold 20,000 nzo as could not resist the price of ppp, its like almost buying cash with a lot more upside in percentage terms than nzo will have for next year IMO.

still hold 10,000 lonely nzo now

M

[digger]

yes they are oversold - it could be tax selling in australia before june 30 on top of the dud drills.

I wonder if the gas reinjection hole was the first choice to drill or if the government told them to fix the flaring.

today i sold 20,000 nzo as could not resist the price of ppp, its like almost buying cash with a lot more upside in percentage terms than nzo will have for next year IMO.

still hold 10,000 lonely nzo now

M

What eventually does happen to TUIsw-2 will be very interesting to watch.To me it is something like this.
TUIsw-2 had on first report 10 metres of hydrocarbons but on second report this was declared uneconomic. If unecomomic means stand alone then so was the 10 metres at TUI as you will all remember that Amokura had to be drilled before TUI was considered an economic find. So what i see is along the lines that FISH mentioned in that it was always the intention to inject gas into TUISW and whatever oil gets pushed along into TUI and collected as a bonus. I also believe that we should have from the start reinjected the gas and then eventually we would have had a gas field as well as a oil one.That would have caused some problems as TUI's gas pressure was far higher than first thought which is why we had the spills at the very early stage. That is now behind us so rejecting the gas into TUISW will have a two value bonus. Flaring in todays age is a no no,but do not tell BP with deepwater horison problems.
naturally i find the NZO SP a little hard to understand as income is guaranteed for the next 20 years. Quess it is just the market being the market with some world wide anti oil drilling risk thrown in considering that BP one of the worlds rishest companies facing bankrupcy over a single oil drill. Investers have to ask that it could happen to to them,and that is risk. But by in large i now see the SP in a very clear down cycle for what ever reason the market wants to put on it and none of the rubbish will effect the fundamentals which are at this moment better than ever before.Another storm to ride out.

[Logen Ninefingers]

it was always the intention to inject gas into TUISW and whatever oil gets pushed along into TUI and collected as a bonus.

I reckon that TUISW is "in communication" with TUI anyway.
In the words of Daniel Plainview:
"Drainage! Drainage, Eli, you boy. Drained dry. I'm so sorry. Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"

[manxman]

I wonder if the gas reinjection hole was the first choice to drill or if the government told them to fix the flaring.

M

They announced that TUI SW would be completed as a gas injection well before spudding as I recall. This seems to indicate that they never had high hopes for TUI SW to be a producer. It would be too easy to lock up the field with gas. Imagine a horizontal production well located at the top of the producing stratum. The last thing that you would want is to push the oil down away from the producing well with a big bubble of gas permeating the top of the producing sands. Roll on Kahu, and if that doesn't yield anything, perhaps they will reprise TUI-4H, and give us a reserve upgrade.

[Pipeline]

Digger

I spoke with AWE on this today.

Tui SW-2 was a low risk oil exploration well. It encountered some oil, but not enough to make it commercial. Instead of it being P&A'd it was cased and suspended for possible future gas injection. If more oil is found elsewhere, more gas will be found also, and the gas flaring limit over the life of the project (10 Bcf) will be breached. Therfore having a backup plan for disposal of excess gas is a smart move by the JV. It was always planned this way, even before the well was spudded. I understand, but Garry was not clear, that the gas injection will have little impact on oil recoveries. By the way, 10Bcf offshore is so far from commercail that your comment is not even funny.

On your comment that the gas pressure caused the oil spill. That is rubbish. I recall that it was related to the water production (oil was put overboard with the produced water) and I believe that the NZ court put it down to human error. The court transcripts were available at one point and AWE come out of the spill with a good outcome.

Cheers

Pipe

[digger]

Thanks pipeline for your comments. I have read your bit several times about the 10bcf gas flaring limit but can not see how it got linked back to being commercial gas field anytime in the future as it would be too small.You seem to be jumping to saying the gas flaring limit is the total gas in tui.Not so. TUI and any surrounding will have far more gas than the limit so i stick to my bit that TUI is a gas find as well as a oil one. It is just on production that gas was discovered to be much more than predrills expected.But i would expect AWE to say it the way you have been informed,companies always do.Once they go down a track even if in hindsight it turns out to be not the best track it gets defended. I have been told by a very good source that tui at the early stages had far more gas pressure than planned and it did contribute to future problems.
Pipeline as shareholders for commerical reasons we will always be somewhat in the dark.My suspicions is now confirmed about AUS companies reacting to where there best interest is given the AUS govt tax structure. It has had a big effect going so far as to remove the AUS govt
Lets wait and see what comes out the new govt. If i am correct about a link between added new resource and a tax provision requirement we can expect a drop off in new resources over the average discovery rate.
Now back to TUIsw. If gas is reinjected into this well what happens to this gas? Well i would imagine it would increase the pressure on everything presently in the field according to my limited scientific understanding. Again with my limited understanding the new higher pressure in TUISW would push all fluids into tui which will because of oil and gas removable be lower although water does come in to relpace this removal the pressure will still be lower in TUI because of the force needed to reinject the gas into tuisw. Gas is also lighter than oil so the will accumulate at the top of the TUISW structure pushing the oil and water aside.Where does it go? The water being heavier goes down and the oil in the middle goes sideways if possible. In fact is this not the industries long practised process of keeping up the pressure on oil production.
OK AWE is correct we will get only exactally one half cup of extra oil which is not counted as oil is not measured in cups. Only time will give us the true picture of what will really happen in this discussed situation but in the near future i expect it to become clearer once the AUS govt sorts its tax structure more suitable to industry.

[Pipeline]

Digger

If Tui was a big gas field, and commercial, dont you think they all would develop it.

It is small and therfore not economic to develop.

Have you ever worked in the oil sector? I dont think you understand what drives these companies. Commercial returns.

Your comments remain unfounded.

Cheers

Pipeline

[digger]

Digger

If Tui was a big gas field, and commercial, dont you think they all would develop it.

It is small and therfore not economic to develop.

Have you ever worked in the oil sector? I dont think you understand what drives these companies. Commercial returns.

Your comments remain unfounded.

Cheers

Pipeline

Sadly what is commerical changes over time. I held shares in Southern Pet back in the 80's and they flaired on land as it was supposdly not commerical to reinject the gas.Not commerical then but now that gas would be much more valuable.Commerical to all oil companies including ours means to the next quater or at most only a year or two.
At heart i am a greeny and just feel we have no right to waist this resource and the arguement that it is not commerical just now can not and should not be supported.For the first time ever in Morrinsville that i know of we had a green party signing up against deep oil drilling off our coast.For anyone to bother to include Morrinsville in an anti drive shows the seriousness of the situation the world is getting into.So i accept my comments are unfounded as they do not mesh with the direction the oil industry wants to rush,regardless of the effect down the track.
To sum up the oil industry wants oil and the dam gas gets in the road,so down play it and push it aside.Short term thinking.
I am pleased that TUISW will be a gas injection well,it will be a goodwill generator as well as generating that half cup of extra oil forced into tui as my previous post.
Over and out on this one Pipeline we have covered the different viewpoints and now must let time pass to see how it does play out.
Cheers.

[Chris Roberts]

For clarification purposes:
Tui SW was an exploration well and was never going to be a production well. Any commercial oil find would have required a further horizontally drilled production well.
It was always part of the drilling plan to suspend Tui SW as a future gas injection well. This had two drivers - to stay under the existing flaring limit, and to have recoverable gas that might be used later in the field's life to power the FPSO Umuroa.
Gas, if injected into Tui SW, will go into a different sandstone than the producing sandstone in the nearby Tui field. It will have no impact on Tui production.

[winner69]

Chris - good on you for the clarification

[dsurf]

I hope that in the upcoming releases (FY results, Quarterly updates, AGM speeches etc) some quantification is put on the $ FY1011 forecasts for Kupe. The average investor needs to be told that capitalisation is a good thing since no tax is paid. I suspect that many investors look at the NPAT result only and think that Kupe earns nothing. I was disappointed in the Feb 1/2 yr statement as recently reproduced. To say that "Kupe did not contribute as it was capitalised" is factually correct for the financial statement as prepared for IRD purposes but says nothing about cash contributions / earnings

I would like to see an improved alternative release that incorporates all NZX / IRD informationfor the full year and ends in the usual NPAT figure and then parallel results also reported that are NPATC where C incorporates the net financial $ gain / loss from the effects of Kupe capitalisation. From this the "true" earnings for shareholders can be computed and NZO would be portrayed in a much fairwer light.

I feel that there is far too much present attention on Pike and the poor production so far versus forecast and media attention should be diverted to the Kupe success story.

[Sayce]

isn't time that we routinely got price and production info on the KUPE field?

[arjay]

Sadly what is commerical changes over time. Cheers.

Indeed, Kupe is a subeconomic gas discovery according to earlier NZO literature. Similarly, Petro-Taranaki discovered the uneconomic Moki oil field. Sadly for all the ex Petro shareholders, Moki is now the very lucrative Maari oil field.

[boysy]

Kahu starts drilling

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100628/pdf/31r1bdr38tsk5x.pdf

[Logen Ninefingers]

Chris Roberts, if you are out there, do you know when Pike River Coal - 30% owned by NZO and with NZO people on the board - are going to ship some more coal? NZO shareholders own a stake in PRC through shareholding in NZO. The information previously given was that there would be a shipment in July. It is the 30th of June, and there has been no information forthcoming.
Are NZO happy with the situation? Do NZO management know more about the situation than shareholders? If yes, will you kindly divulge what exactly is happening? NZO have a big stake in PRC, which the market is well aware of. The market reacts negatively to an information vaccuum.

[Mr Tommy]

.

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) has released its interim financial results
for the six months ended 31 December 2009.

- NZ$14.0 million in unrealised foreign exchange losses

The unrealised foreign exchange losses arise from NZOG''s large US dollar cash
balance and the fluctuating exchange rate. If the NZD/USD cross rate remains
below 72c it is likely that NZOG will report foreign exchange gains in the
second half.


Last day of financial year today, and NZD/USD at 69c, so should be a good gain here.

[upside_umop]

Chris Roberts, if you are out there, do you know when Pike River Coal - 30% owned by NZO and with NZO people on the board - are going to ship some more coal? NZO shareholders own a stake in PRC through shareholding in NZO. The information previously given was that there would be a shipment in July. It is the 30th of June, and there has been no information forthcoming.
Are NZO happy with the situation? Do NZO management know more about the situation than shareholders? If yes, will you kindly divulge what exactly is happening? NZO have a big stake in PRC, which the market is well aware of. The market reacts negatively to an information vaccuum.

If you want information re PRC, I suggest you refer to their disclosures on the NZX or to their website. NZO are not going to produce any price sensitive information re PRC when PRC won't do it themselves. Chris has stated before thats he not here to answer all questions, and more to clarify statements released by NZO. We are quite lucky to have him here, so dont push your luck.

[Logen Ninefingers]

If you want information re PRC, I suggest you refer to their disclosures on the NZX or to their website. NZO are not going to produce any price sensitive information re PRC when PRC won't do it themselves. Chris has stated before thats he not here to answer all questions, and more to clarify statements released by NZO. We are quite lucky to have him here, so dont push your luck.

Wow, ok, I've just checked the PRC website, and under latest news it states: Latest news: 21 May 2010: $90 Million Capital Raising Completed . Thanks for your suggestion.

If Chris has stated before that he's not here to answer all question, then he can choose to answer some or all of the questions, or not. That's entirely his choice.

[upside_umop]

Wow, ok, I've just checked the PRC website, and under latest news it states: Latest news: 21 May 2010: $90 Million Capital Raising Completed . Thanks for your suggestion.

If Chris has stated before that he's not here to answer all question, then he can choose to answer some or all of the questions, or not. That's entirely his choice.

Good that you have checked the website, because now you will understand that NZO will not be able to answer any price sensitive information, not already released by PRC. Its part of the disclosure rules.

Glad that ones sorted out.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Good that you have checked the website, because now you will understand that NZO will not be able to answer any price sensitive information, not already released by PRC. Its part of the disclosure rules.

Glad that ones sorted out.

Cool, no worries. Here's something from a little earlier in the year:

(The following statement was released by the company) WELLINGTON, Feb 19 - Pike River is marking a milestone in the history of the company today with the first export shipment of its premium hard coking coal to India.
"This is a significant event for the company and the culmination of intensive efforts to bring the mine into production," says Pike River's chief executive Gordon Ward.
Pike River's inaugural export shipment of 20,000 tonnes of premium hard coking coal is being shipped from the Port of Lyttelton on board the Tian Bai Feng to Bedi Port in Gujarat, India.
From there, it will be transported to coke-maker, Gujarat NRE - one of Pike River's life-of-mine customers.
Gujarat and fellow Indian life-of-mine customer, Saurashtra Fuels have agreed to take 55 percent of Pike River's coal.
Pike River also has three-year supply contracts with Japanese steel mills. These contracts account for the supply of 22% of Pike's total coal production.
Mr Ward says the next export shipment is scheduled for the April - June 2010 quarter

[upside_umop]

Cool, no worries. Here's something from a little earlier in the year:

(The following statement was released by the company) WELLINGTON, Feb 19 - Pike River is marking a milestone in the history of the company today with the first export shipment of its premium hard coking coal to India.
"This is a significant event for the company and the culmination of intensive efforts to bring the mine into production," says Pike River's chief executive Gordon Ward.
Pike River's inaugural export shipment of 20,000 tonnes of premium hard coking coal is being shipped from the Port of Lyttelton on board the Tian Bai Feng to Bedi Port in Gujarat, India.
From there, it will be transported to coke-maker, Gujarat NRE - one of Pike River's life-of-mine customers.
Gujarat and fellow Indian life-of-mine customer, Saurashtra Fuels have agreed to take 55 percent of Pike River's coal.
Pike River also has three-year supply contracts with Japanese steel mills. These contracts account for the supply of 22% of Pike's total coal production.
Mr Ward says the next export shipment is scheduled for the April - June 2010 quarter

And here is a quote from the latest quarterly.




The next export 20,000 tonnes is scheduled for July 2010.
Once hydro-mining is underway in the July-September 2010 quarter, the typical export shipment size of premium hard coking coal will be approximately 60,000 tonnes, although several early shipments may be contracted at lesser tonnages to assist with company cashflows and also customer requirements.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Ok, so are you implying they have put a gag order on Gordon Ward, because he has a history of making statements advising happenings that never eventuate when he says they will? Interesting.
Included in your quote is a part which is relevant The next export 20,000 tonnes is scheduled for July 2010. , along with some stuff to do with hydro-mining et al.
In your opinion, given that there is now a clear pattern of providing projected dates for key events to happen & it transpires these dates are not met, do you think hydro-mining will begin in the July-September 2010 quarter?

[neopoleII]

hydro mining will begin in the july sept quarter...... the question is how long to optimal mining?
in the mean time, im guessing the coal shipment will be delayed till the hydro miners produce a full ship load.

[upside_umop]

No, I'm implying they have put a gag on GW, just that they have revised their production profile (as distinctly stated in their quarterly). Therefore, given the reason they stated, combined with the fact that they're forecasting first shipment in July (which could be anytime in July...ie 31 days away!), there is no need to be getting worried that they havent 'updated' the market!

There is nothing wrong with their disclosure (yet). If it became August, the shareprice had fallen 50%, and they didn't announce to the market the proposed shipment, then I would fully understand the concern. But because its June, not past July yet, and the quarterly explanation, I don't see any reason to get worried.

[Logen Ninefingers]

If it became August, the shareprice had fallen 50%, and they didn't announce to the market the proposed shipment, then I would fully understand the concern.

Hmmm.....there is concern at the moment, which you say you don't understand. The concern is based on past history, coupled with 40 days of silence from PRC, mixed in with an inability to find any compelling evidence that coal will definitely be shipped in July. But if the above scenario which you describe did play out, then you would understand concern. But I reckon that if the above scenario that you mention did play out, then sentiment would have moved well past concern, and into the realms of a meltdown in shareholder and market confidence.
What you sense at the moment is that many people see this July shipment as a line in the sand. It either happens, and credibility is restored, or it doesn't and some complimentary reason is provided, at which time we will have reached what could be termed 'the last straw'.

[upside_umop]

I'm not saying anymore. This is getting silly. Its clearly not NZO's business to state what PRC are upto (if it is as you say, price sensitive), and thats my whole point.

Good luck LN.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Point taken. And my point is that the fates of PRC and NZO are entwined, for better or worse.

Good luck also!

[fabs]

Opportunity presented to get a Shareholders Representative on to an already full Trough of experts, could surly only improve things.
Or forever hold our peace.

[Unicorn]

Opportunity presented to get a Shareholders Representative on to an already full Trough of experts, could surly only improve things.
Or forever hold our peace.

A shareholders representative is normally a mechanism to improve things when a board is not looking after its minority shareholders.

I think NZO is doing a good job of looking after its shareholders interests, so see no need to appoint anyone specifically for that role.

If you clarify what things would be improved, then I could comment further.

[fabs]

Well, in that case relax and have another TUI

[the machine]

Well, in that case relax and have another TUI

this tui or the cold one - no damn it - go for the hole hog and have them both

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01075936

me thinks they will find lots of oil

M

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=the machine;309755]this tui or the cold one - no damn it - go for the hole hog and have them both

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01075936

me thinks they will find lots of oil

M,
The drill bit does the talking but I am with you. Let's hope Kahu hits the sweet spot.

[rainey]

I know Im thick, but what does the latest disclosure notice tell us.

[the machine]

I know Im thick, but what does the latest disclosure notice tell us.
TR let his options expire - he could buy on market much cheaper

M

[777]

You raise a good point though rainey. These notices satisfy NZX requirements but do little to inform the shareholder. It has been raised before but ignored as usual. It should be simplified so it can be read and understood at a glance.

[digger]

I know Im thick, but what does the latest disclosure notice tell us.

These things are unnecessarly complicated.I had to read it twice to figure out what it was all leading to. Yesterday Randford's wife disclosed selling half her PPP shares ,as a related party.The only silver lining i can see on having these reports so hard to read is that if there is another war many of us will be preschooled at breaking the next enigma code.

[BigBob]

For what it's worth the brand spanking new ASB Securities web-site has an "Accumulate" recommendation from Morningstar updated today with a target of 165....

[ratkin]

That is just the Huntleys recommendation . And to answer your question its not worth very much.
The recommendations change purely because of price movement so if a stock is being recommended as a hold then falls in price its recommendation is likely to change to accumulate.

Huntleys is very crafty , when a stock does poorly they cease coverage of it and it dissapears from their list of recommended stocks, i wouldnt pay much attention to any of their tips

[dsurf]

Any guesses why Kahui announcement is taking so long?

[Lion]

We can expect weekly update on Kahu unless something out of the ordinary. Thursdays, I think.

I bought more NZO on Friday. Bottom trawling? I hope so. Surely Pike news and maybe Kahu news will boost the sp soon.

[digger]

Any guesses why Kahui announcement is taking so long?

I can only assume you missed the announcement last thursday. Other than that are you expecting a daily report?? Lost as to what you are getting at.

[Arbitrage]

http://www.nzog.com/n49.html

[777]

You sometimes wonder why companies have websites when so many people are too lazy to access them. Always easier to ask on here and get someone else to do the work.

[Arbitrage]

Many like NZO have email lists to overcome this. Whenever announcements are made they are sent to your inbox with the link to the website. You can sign up at the NZO website.

[the machine]

We can expect weekly update on Kahu unless something out of the ordinary. Thursdays, I think.

I bought more NZO on Friday. Bottom trawling? I hope so. Surely Pike news and maybe Kahu news will boost the sp soon.


maybe not the bottom with todays announcement
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01076657

m

[Logen Ninefingers]

Any guesses why Kahui announcement is taking so long?

Signed for a European club? Do you have the good oil?

[dsurf]

Signed for a European club? Do you have the good oil?

yip - don't pick Saints

[Logen Ninefingers]

Not all doom and gloom from TUI.....
- 4.83 million barrels was produced from Tui in the year to June 30, slightly above a revised forecast of 4.8m barrels.
- Restart to production from Pateke well estimated to happen in the middle of the 2010 fourth quarter.
- Estimated 22.3m barrels of recoverable reserves remain.

[notie]

Not all doom and gloom from TUI.....
- 4.83 million barrels was produced from Tui in the year to June 30, slightly above a revised forecast of 4.8m barrels.
- Restart to production from Pateke well estimated to happen in the middle of the 2010 fourth quarter.
- Estimated 22.3m barrels of recoverable reserves remain.

Actually you might want to read the latest releases from AWE, nzo etc as they are planning a work over on one of the well which will require some expensive rig time using the kan tan. Not a great situation and was always going to be an issue with the type of development they went with.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Actually you might want to read the latest releases from AWE, nzo etc as they are planning a work over on one of the well which will require some expensive rig time using the kan tan. Not a great situation and was always going to be an issue with the type of development they went with.

Bad news from the well aye Notie.

[notie]

Bad news from the well aye Notie.

yes logan not great news

[Logen Ninefingers]

SP @ 1.19 - wow, what a drop over just a few weeks.

[Casa del Energia]

SP @ 1.19 - wow, what a drop over just a few weeks.


Below NTA. I could say stuff such as how insane it has become, it shouldn't happen, look at the earnings, look at the upside, 20 years of life in Kupe - and all the usual blarg. But we all know that is just spitting into the wind.

Just sit back and drink a quiet coffee - and remind yourself that the earth is 8,000 miles in diameter - that ain't changing. And then remember the hot topic of two years ago - peak oil. Or had everyone completely forgotten(?).

Keep drilling, nog… and then do some more.

[Logen Ninefingers]

How do you have stories in 'stocks to watch' which are positive to PRC - "nearing completition of it's mine" and you're saying watch NZO because it's announced that Tui production is reducing. If you own 30% of PRC doesn't your own SP deserve to bask in any positive light PRC receives? Coverage is all negative.

[friedegg]

only around 180 million has been wiped off the sp since the summer come winter drilling campaign started,i heard bono from u2 lost 700 million from an investment if that makes you feel better

[WACC]

it,s all about pouring money down dry wells, we need a gusher to stop decline. Maybe Kupe retesting will up the share price.

[castelinop]

NZO is not doing too well, has had quite a negative year so far. Currently it is quite a volatile period as well.

[BigBob]

it,s all about pouring money down dry wells, we need a gusher to stop decline. Maybe Kupe retesting will up the share price.

That's the risk of oil exploration. But to say that the exploration failure so far this year warrants a $180m write-off in value to less than NTA is ludicrous. Sure it’s been disappointing, but it’s not like the company has suddenly lost all revenue. It is still pumping oil and gas and will continue to do so for the next 20 years regardless of any exploration success.

The main bit of bad news is the revised production figures from TUI for next year, but isn’t actually that bad (if you take a longer term view) and it barely affected the SP.

Bring on a share buy back I say!

[Logen Ninefingers]

That's the risk of oil exploration. But to say that the exploration failure so far this year warrants a $180m write-off in value to less than NTA is ludicrous. Sure it’s been disappointing, but it’s not like the company has suddenly lost all revenue. It is still pumping oil and gas and will continue to do so for the next 20 years regardless of any exploration success.

The main bit of bad news is the revised production figures from TUI for next year, but isn’t actually that bad (if you take a longer term view) and it barely affected the SP.

Bring on a share buy back I say!\

And the SP dips back to 1.19....stop making sense BigBob, the irrational market doesn't like it.

[Mr Tommy]

Volume of over 800K today is a lot higher than usual, must be Notie snapping them up at give away prices.

[fish]

Volume of over 800K today is a lot higher than usual, must be Notie snapping them up at give away prices.

Awe has dropped 7cents during the course of the day .
I wonder what is happening

[Logen Ninefingers]

Awe has dropped 7cents during the course of the day .
I wonder what is happening

Tui production dropping off?

[winner69]

Tui production dropping off?


A year ago I posted this chart - then production was definitely in decline - and asked whether it was all going to be over in 2010 ..... and aoff course I got the expected response from you beleivers

The chart today looks better than a year ago ... at least almost steady stste production llll but why hasn't it neem updated for a few months .... have the columns got smaller or something?

As you can see I know very liitle about the fundamentals of NZO but has been a pretty good stock to do some medium to longer term trades on ..... maybe another one on the horison but i would like the NZO chart to look better than that production chart!!!!!!

Chart from NZO website .... purple lone is my intepretation of events a year ago

[Paint it Black]

Awe has dropped 7cents during the course of the day .
I wonder what is happening

With Kahu possibly now at depth and no special announcements today the omens are not looking good for anything big in their regular Thursday update tomorrow. Maybe someone at AWE HQ knows something we don't?

[friedegg]

the majority of nzos earnings now will be comming from kupe,its just sheep that allow it to follow awe/ppp on thier slide.theyre still going to pay a divi arent they?

[the machine]

With Kahu possibly now at depth and no special announcements today the omens are not looking good for anything big in their regular Thursday update tomorrow. Maybe someone at AWE HQ knows something we don't?

kahu won't be at depth yet - another week to go

M

[the machine]

That's the risk of oil exploration. But to say that the exploration failure so far this year warrants a $180m write-off in value to less than NTA is ludicrous. Sure it’s been disappointing, but it’s not like the company has suddenly lost all revenue. It is still pumping oil and gas and will continue to do so for the next 20 years regardless of any exploration success.

The main bit of bad news is the revised production figures from TUI for next year, but isn’t actually that bad (if you take a longer term view) and it barely affected the SP.

Bring on a share buy back I say!

at what price - 50c?

M

ps, its not in nzo interest to have one

[Lion]

ps, its not in nzo interest to have one

Would you care to elaborate, machine? I think we had a similar discussion some time ago, but I can't remember the arguments now.
I was thinking it might be a good idea myself, and I suspect others may be too.
I'd appreciate your reasons. It involves tax matters, does it?

The NZX (who you'd think should know about such things) have announced a buy back of their shares. [Part of their announcement follows]

NZX today announces the intention to buy-back up to 3,571,428 of its fully paid ordinary shares.

The NZX Board is of the view that the current share price is significantly below fair value and doesn’t reflect a reasonable valuation of the company today, even without taking into account the growth prospects about which the Board and management are confident. A buy-back of shares at this time is an opportunity to provide a return to shareholders in excess of NZX’s cost of capital. The Board has today authorised management to undertake buy-backs in accordance with the NZSX Listing Rules, the Companies Act 1993 and NZX’s Constitution. [end quote]

My (probably simplistic) reasoning says NZO have cash in the bank, a steady income stream and are looking like a takeover target with such a low sp. That would be such a waste, to sell out cheaply to a (probably Aussie) company and then watch them take the rewards we have been waiting so patiently for, for years. Taking us out in a weak moment of global jitters.

Some may say that's the reality of business (and you are an Aussie, I think!), but we don't just have to lie down and let them . . .again.

Wouldn't a buyback give us some protection against a takeover?

[the machine]

lion, to add value to nzo they need to generate income and a share buy back does not do that.

I think it was TR who implied a while ago that any buyback would have to be benchmarked against the nz$1.50 share issue price - there have been a few dividends since then.

besides nzo have invested in prc in several ways - said $ not required for oil/gas exploration/developments

M

[Mr Tommy]

Bigger than usual volume yesterday (over 1m traded) and up 6c today, maybe its on the way back up.

[JMJ1202]

AWE, PPP, and NZO up by 3%, 5% and 5% respectively. No announcement on ASB securities yet but, we'll probably be the last to know as the institutions get a 20 min head start on us common people!

[Casa del Energia]

AWE, PPP, and NZO up by 3%, 5% and 5% respectively. No announcement on ASB securities yet but, we'll probably be the last to know as the institutions get a 20 min head start on us common people!

It was silly of me to forget about the cementing carry on and installing blow out thingies. I've got yet another week of trudging up to the oil gods temple to sacrifice even more chickens on the altar.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Kahu-1 Drilling Report
8 July 2010
NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that during the past week surface casing was set in the Kahu-1 well to a planned depth of 1,504m.

At 0600 hours today (NZ time) BOP's were being installed prior to preparing to drill ahead. It is anticipated that top of the target reservoir should be intersected in the coming week.Kahu-1 is an exploration well within PMP 38158 in the offshore Taranaki Basin. The well will test the Kapuni group sands within a large incised valley feature east of the Tui oil field.

Kahu-1 is being drilled by the Kan Tan IV rig in a water depth of 122 metres and is expected to drill to a total measured depth of approximately 3,820 metres.


Participants in Kahu-1 and PMP 38158 are:
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through its subsidiary Stewart Petroleum) 12.5%
AWE Limited (Operator) 42.5%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Limited 35.0%
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (through its subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%

[Mr Tommy]

Sorry Notie, I now see it wasnt you buying up large yesterday. It was ACC.

[digger]

Sorry Notie, I now see it wasnt you buying up large yesterday. It was ACC.

Interesting hey.Did ACC buy at the bottom or did AAC,s buying create the bottom?

[Mr Tommy]

Interesting hey.Did ACC buy at the bottom or did AAC,s buying create the bottom?

The bottom or not the bottom, that is the question. Kahu may be the answer to that.

[dsurf]

Following is from Genesis disclosure statements - This project appears to be going very well.

The current commercial value of the Crown’s investment, calculated as at 30 June 2010, now stands at $1,624 million which is an increase of $185 million compared to last year. The key reasons for this improvement in commercial value flow from an increase of $141 million in the value of the generation business (improved performance from older Huntly Units 1 to 4) and an increase of $104 million in the value of the Kupe
oil and gas field. These results are partly offset by a reduction of $85 million in the value of the retail business due to lower volumes and prices.

The Kupe oil and gas field has been operating well since commercial operations began on 22 March 2010.

Kupe oil and gas earnings are also expected to be higher due to higher projected oil prices.

[notie]

Following is from Genesis disclosure statements - This project appears to be going very well.

The current commercial value of the Crown’s investment, calculated as at 30 June 2010, now stands at $1,624 million which is an increase of $185 million compared to last year. The key reasons for this improvement in commercial value flow from an increase of $141 million in the value of the generation business (improved performance from older Huntly Units 1 to 4) and an increase of $104 million in the value of the Kupe
oil and gas field. These results are partly offset by a reduction of $85 million in the value of the retail business due to lower volumes and prices.

The Kupe oil and gas field has been operating well since commercial operations began on 22 March 2010.

Kupe oil and gas earnings are also expected to be higher due to higher projected oil prices.

wow things must be getting desperate if folk have to go through jv partners AR for minor tidbits of info on operations.

Big question is where is nzo's kupes and tuis of tomorrow.....

Answer: they haven't got any

[BigBob]

at what price - 50c?

M

ps, its not in nzo interest to have one






lion, to add value to nzo they need to generate income and a share buy back does not do that.

I think it was TR who implied a while ago that any buyback would have to be benchmarked against the nz$1.50 share issue price - there have been a few dividends since then.

besides nzo have invested in prc in several ways - said $ not required for oil/gas exploration/developments

M

I'm not suggesting they do it at a set price or try to defend a price. However they could put themselves in a position where they can take advantage of a significantly undervalued share price to reduce the number of shares on issue, thus indirectly increase shareholder value.

If you look at the number of shares traded since the fall started in April, it's only about 20mill or 6% of issued shares...

I would rather that those shares were mopped up by NZO than potentially by some unknown predator or short term traders....

Also, I don't see why it should be at 150....

[Logen Ninefingers]

wow things must be getting desperate if folk have to go through jv partners AR for minor tidbits of info on operations.

Big question is where is nzo's kupes and tuis of tomorrow.....

Answer: they haven't got any

Awww don't be like that notie; this is good news from the well. What are you gonna say if they strike oil at Kahu?

[the machine]

Following is from Genesis disclosure statements - This project appears to be going very well.

The current commercial value of the Crown’s investment, calculated as at 30 June 2010, now stands at $1,624 million which is an increase of $185 million compared to last year. The key reasons for this improvement in commercial value flow from an increase of $141 million in the value of the generation business (improved performance from older Huntly Units 1 to 4) and an increase of $104 million in the value of the Kupe
oil and gas field. These results are partly offset by a reduction of $85 million in the value of the retail business due to lower volumes and prices.

The Kupe oil and gas field has been operating well since commercial operations began on 22 March 2010.

Kupe oil and gas earnings are also expected to be higher due to higher projected oil prices.

thanks dsurf - good intell

m

[blockhead]

Blocky has a feeling


Think that drill bit could be stirring in a pool of Castrol "R" !!!!

[digger]

Blocky has a feeling


Think that drill bit could be stirring in a pool of Castrol "R" !!!!

Sad to hear that blocky. I had that feeling with the other three wells and you know where that got us.Better to prepare for going down to the count of four and cheer later if it should turn the other way.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Blocky has a feeling


Think that drill bit could be stirring in a pool of Castrol "R" !!!!

Buy! Buy(!) Buy?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Blockhead What do you want a well full of castor oil for (Castrol R) was vegitable oil. We used to put a bit in our petrol tanks to give a great smell. I would not want a well full of it.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Is there a possibility that anyone on the Kan Tan IV knows whther they've struck oil or not? Once you get to the target zone, do you know within a pretty short time-frame?

[blockhead]

Oh of course, forgot that, yes you are correct, used it when I was racing two stroke bikes, loved it. I was somewhere recently and it was being used, took me straight back to my youth.

Lets hope it isn't in a pool of vegeatable oil then !!!

[blockhead]

Knew I could feel something coming on

REL: 1601 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Increase in Kupe Reserves

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) is pleased to advise that following a
detailed reserves review, the initial proved and probable (2P) reserves in
the Kupe Field have been increased.

The initial 2P sales gas reserves have increased by 8%, LPG reserves by 5%
and light oil (condensate) reserves by 27%.

NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury said the outcome of the reserves review
is very good news.

"The light oil provides the greatest financial return of the three products,
so confirmation that the field is more 'liquids-rich' than initially
estimated is particularly significant.

"At current prices, the additional NZOG reserves have a sales value of nearly
NZ$100 million."

NZOG's share of the reserves increase is approximately 3 petajoules (PJ) of
gas, 8,000 tonnes of LPG and 600,000 barrels of light oil.

The Kupe gas and oil field lies 30km off the south Taranaki coast. It has
been producing natural gas, LPG and light oil since the wells were opened in
early December 2009. Following a commissioning period, permanent production
commenced in March 2010. The project was developed for a total cost of
approximately $1.3 billion.

The reserves review has integrated new petrophysical, fluid sample and well
test information with full field static and dynamic reservoir models. As a
result of this modeling, initial 2P reserves have been revised to 273 PJ of
sales gas, 1,114 kilotonnes of LPG and 18.6 million barrels of light oil.

Production since commissioning commenced on 3 December 2009 until 30 June
2010 has totaled 10 PJ of sales gas, 32 kilotonnes of LPG and around 1
million barrels of light oil. The remaining 2P reserves at 30 June 2010 are
therefore 263 PJ of sales gas, 1,082 kilotonnes of LPG and 17.6 million
barrels of light oil.

The reserves review has also clarified the anticipated requirements for
additional capital expenditure later in the field's life. It is now expected
that this will include two additional production wells and full field
compression. NZOG estimates its capex share will be NZ$20-30m. The costs and
the precise timing will be refined over the coming year.

"Kupe will be able to achieve higher production for relatively little
incremental cost," David Salisbury said.

"Kupe will meet a significant portion of New Zealand's energy needs over the
next 15 years or more. For NZOG, it will provide long term cash flows from
three revenue streams.

"Developing the Kupe field was a major undertaking but the rewards are
significant. This reserves upgrade is more icing on the cake," David
Salisbury said.

[Logen Ninefingers]

WOW...an almost 30% increase in the light oil reserves. And an extra $100 million there for NZO. The share price is going nuts!!!

[blockhead]

Anyone able to figure what the additional income per annum might be ??

Could be handy for paying an attractive dividend

[Logen Ninefingers]

.....good news from the well, aye Notie.
Late July and it's all happening....drilling report due soon , PRC to ship in the near future(?).....

[777]

The $100 million is about 25c/share. To what extent that affects the shareprice needs a better person than me to calculate.

[digger]

The $100 million is about 25c/share. To what extent that affects the shareprice needs a better person than me to calculate.

Well i certaintly not claiming to be the better person to due the calculating but i can throw in some of the variables. The first is that the negative is removed.That is the well exceeds past estimates. Not all wells do.Look at PB's Thunder Horse in the Golf of Mexico.It was suppost to get to 250,000 B/d but only got to about 180 and now a big downgrade is coming.So do not understimate the first consideration that KUPE has exceeded past estimates.
The second variable is where does that leave all the surounding areas--Momoho etc and even the big yet to be drills prospects.To my thinking these have all moved up slightly.
On another thought do you suppost ACC buying was because their research told them this ungrade was coming.I suspect yes as even i guessed it in the wind.It was certainly welcome news but not a complete suprise.

[Balance]

NZX inquiry surely - someone knew this was coming.

[shasta]

NZX inquiry surely - someone knew this was coming.

Up a whole 8c, you're kidding right?

[blockhead]

Balance


The signs were there this morning at 10.15am hence post No 9751

[Bilo]

NZX inquiry surely - someone knew this was coming.

The enquiry should be into how the SP was allowed to be driven down to less than 1.20. A few 100K "SP" crossings may have the shorts escaping scott free....a doddle for those close enough to the action....and ACC?

[BigBob]

The enquiry should be into how the SP was allowed to be driven down to less than 1.20. A few 100K "SP" crossings may have the shorts escaping scott free....a doddle for those close enough to the action....and ACC?

Or maybe it should be an investigation into why the SP didn't move until about 20mins after the release was made to the market... was everyone asleep....?

[Chris Roberts]

Just to be clear - no-one had any pre-warning about yesterday's announcement. There are no leaks from NZOG.
If the share price had gone up before the announcement, someone here would have been pointing the finger. The share price has fallen recently (along with all other oil and gas stocks) and you still come up with a conspiracy. Silly stuff.

[croesus]

Just to be clear - no-one had any pre-warning about yesterday's announcement. There are no leaks from NZOG.
If the share price had gone up before the announcement, someone here would have been pointing the finger. The share price has fallen recently (along with all other oil and gas stocks) and you still come up with a conspiracy. Silly stuff.

Totally agree Chris.... unfortunately many of the posters on this thread....probably believe the Americans never landed on the moon either.....

Seems to me that most are probably Labour Party voters, retired school teachers or both.... they would generally have a share portfolio of $30,000 max.. mostly made up of dogs from yester year..

Unfortunately they also suffer from jealousy and avarice.. ( Labour Party link).. when they have setbacks which are legion... they go to default mode and try to find a conspiracy to hide behind... a bit sad really..

I know of several who post on sharetrader.. unsurprisingly.. they both have Caravans...

Keep up the goodwork...

Cheers

[blockhead]

I only post on what I see and yesterday when I posted at 1015 there was an increase in the number of buys on the buy side for NZO, leaks ? insiders ? coincidence ? I don't know, what I do know is there was an increase in activity a long time before the ann.

For you Croesus, I dont fit your description above !

[Bilo]

Just to be clear - no-one had any pre-warning about yesterday's announcement. There are no leaks from NZOG.
If the share price had gone up before the announcement, someone here would have been pointing the finger. The share price has fallen recently (along with all other oil and gas stocks) and you still come up with a conspiracy. Silly stuff.

Silly Chris? No one mentioned any conspiracy or impropriety or "leaks" of information until you did Chris. Just the machinations of a share market that lacks liquidity, and has very few significant players/traders and an NZO share price that appears to have been forced down to 30cps below the last capital raising, without a whisper in explanation or defence, before ACC declared an increased holding.

[777]

Actually Balance suggested the inquiry but who takes any notice of what he writes.

[yabster]

thats a bit of a gross generalisation- I fail to see what the size of someones portfolio or political leanings has to do with anything Croesus?
As for dogs of yester year- how you know the make up of these posters portfolios is a mystery- clairvoyant perphaps?

[digger]

Silly Chris? No one mentioned any conspiracy or impropriety or "leaks" of information until you did Chris. Just the machinations of a share market that lacks liquidity, and has very few significant players/traders and an NZO share price that appears to have been forced down to 30cps below the last capital raising, without a whisper in explanation or defence, before ACC declared an increased holding.
I was the first to suggest that ACC bought at a good time. I do not and still do not see this as a conspircy but rather good feel for the market and background research and a hunch. Several years ago or longer i could have best guessed the timing of a KUPE upgrade. With any well or mine a high degree of accuracy comes about 6 months after first production.It did with TUI now with Kupe and with Thunder Horse [BP well in golf] and will occure again with PIKE after another 6 months of real production. This i see as no suprise but expected.Lets just be thankful it is not the downgrade that Thunder Horse is looking at. Yesterday i made an error in BP's production from this well.It is now down to 60000 from an expected 250000. So very well done NZO and partners for getting the regrade going the right way.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Kahu-1 Drilling Report
15 July 2010
NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that as at 0600 hours today (NZ time) the Kahu-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at a measured depth of 3,692 metres.

Progress for the week was 2,188 metres.

The forward plan for the well is to drill to a total depth of approximately 3,820 metres and complete wireline logging.

The Kahu-1 well is an exploration well within PMP 38158, located approximately 3 kilometres east of the producing Tui oil field.



Participants in Kahu-1 and PMP 38158 are:
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through its subsidiary Stewart Petroleum) 12.5%
AWE Limited (Operator) 42.5%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Limited 35.0%
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL (through its subsidiary WM Petroleum Ltd) 10.0%

[blockhead]

They are going to get there today then aren't they ??, may even be there now

[Logen Ninefingers]

So we'll get the confirmation of results before Thursday next week you reckon?

[digger]

So we'll get the confirmation of results before Thursday next week you reckon?
About then.Certainly be there B 4 the weekend but will want to be sure not like the TUI SW carry on there we all got our hopes up to be let down several days later.MY bet is being so close to TUI they will find something but the bigger question is as always will it be economic.

[arjay]

The latest news on Kupe upgrades must be very disheartening for Notie. I reckon he' must be crying into his vinegar about now.

[Marilyn Munroe]

They are going to get there today then aren't they ??, may even be there now

Can someone row out to the rig and find out if they are flaring off.

[Phaedrus]

The enquiry should be into how the SP was allowed to be driven down to less than 1.20.The SP was driven down by selling pressure from small holders and other normal market forces. How do you see this being stopped? In any case, NZO have no obligation to support their shareprice at $1.20 or any other level.


A few 100K "SP" crossings may have been the shorts escaping scott free....a doddle for those close enough to the action....Anyone that had shorted NZO would have covered a week ago when Buy signals were firing. (See chart).


Maybe it should be an investigation into why the SP didn't move until about 20mins after the release was made to the market... was everyone asleep? Indeed. Furthermore, all those late buyers should be made to attend compulsory TA classes!


Yesterday when I posted at 10.15 there was an increase in the number of buys on the buy side for NZO, leaks ? insiders ? coincidence ?Well, if I had NZO inside information, I wouldn't faff about placing hopeful buy bids. I would be buying up large - at market.

Take a look at the chart. After firing off obvious Sell signals, NZO was in a perfectly normal downtrend. Exactly a week ago, the downtrend reversed and, on average volume, a swag of Buy signals were triggered. The current uptrend is quite normal and the days before the announcement volumes were well below average.

In short, there is no evidence whatsoever of any shareprice manipulation or insider trading.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZO715.gif

[Logen Ninefingers]

Is this an uptrend? SP is $1.34......maybe just a price spike due to the $600 million extra reserves of oil and gas found lurking at Kupe. The market will quickly get the glums again no doubt.

[Logen Ninefingers]

....$1.30 being offered, but looks like the saps who bought in at $1.38 won't take anything less that $1.33....
A. What's going on?
B. Instant downtrend.
.....I demand an NZX enquiry!!!!!!!!!!!!

[manxman]

Is this an uptrend? SP is $1.34......maybe just a price spike due to the $600 million extra reserves of oil and gas found lurking at Kupe. The market will quickly get the glums again no doubt.
If we didn't strike oil this afternoon, then the market will indeed get the glums, but the financial results at the end of the month should paint a much prettier picture than last time, and if Pike gets its shipment off on time then that could help too.
The problem is that the true believers are holding all they can afford, and the big fish are content to wait for the dips, so a dry hole at Kahu could push the price right back down towards $1.20. Great buying at that.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Yup, a big dry hole will get the price down to $1.20 on a heap of small trades, then some piece of 'good' news will see if spike right up as every man and his dog comes racing in, then there will be a piece of 'bad' news, at which point the share price will start to go down systematically on small trades, at which point they'll be a piece of 'good' news......you get the picture.....meanwhile the company will just keep ticking along at a steady rate of oil and gas production, while the rollercoaster goes up and down, up and down.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Pike? Ah, the great unknown. 17.6 million tonnes of coal, and we know they've got 20,000 tonnes out so far because that coal got shipped to India. Now they just need to get the other 17.58 million tonnes out.

[RRR]

$1.30 at close after a mighty rise yesterday!! A very cheeky question to share traders-Did any one buy NZO in the last few days?

[Vtrader]

Can someone row out to the rig and find out if they are flaring off.
Dubious research, on my part, but much less work than oars.
If there was flaring off today it may have been between 4 and 5pm.
Does hot smoke look like rain to a radar?
A gentle northeasterly today and cooling land mass after 5pm.
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rain-radar/rain-radar/all-nz-rain-last-6-hrs
V.

[Logen Ninefingers]

SP @ $1.28....the markets got the glums again. PRC down a bit too. Those muppets at the mine with their 20,000 tonnes of coal to date are weighing heavily on everyone.

[Hoop]

SP @ $1.28....the markets got the glums again. PRC down a bit too. Those muppets at the mine with their 20,000 tonnes of coal to date are weighing heavily on everyone.

patience grasshopper :)

[digger]

Here is my offical drilling report for Kahu-1.
Simple if it were a complete success we would have heard so by now.Also if a complete fauilure we would have been informed. So that means it is a small find that needs extra ana-lising to see if commerical. At 200 dollars a barrell we have a few of these wells that will be economic. Tieke and Taranui are just unecomic but will be in a different catagory whem oil is higher than today.
Well that is my pick for Kahu-1

[Logen Ninefingers]

Here is my offical drilling report for Kahu-1.
Simple if it were a complete success we would have heard so by now.Also if a complete fauilure we would have been informed. So that means it is a small find that needs extra ana-lising to see if commerical. At 200 dollars a barrell we have a few of these wells that will be economic. Tieke and Taranui are just unecomic but will be in a different catagory whem oil is higher than today. Well that is my pick for Kahu-1

Is this official drilling report an official drilling report?