NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[duncan macgregor]

I can see poor old MACDUNK getting a hard time at the Auckland sharetraders get together. Prove to me you bought the options at 30c and i will buy you a beer and your bus fare home. Its only a company competing for your investment dollar, dont get uptight, it is either a good or a bad decision to be holding. I find it amusing that people get so wrapped up in a company that they even vote in favour of management exploiting them.
Look at it in a cold hard calculating objective manner, and expect to be wrong sometimes. Feel free to call me anything you like i dont care I will still say what i think . Macdunk

[Hoop]

Yes management suck from the shareholders view. ...but I have bought in NZO and I have my feet permanently set on the ground and am not blind.

Why have I bought?
1 Management is ignorant...big difference to that of incompetent
2 Large cash flow and in a positive direction
3 Shares undervalued (and for good reason at the present time) and is becoming even more undervalued and at an increasing rate.
4 Company management strategies very inconsistent (no set goals in place)
5 Company structure within it's market environment seem to be isolated. It's main weaknesses is a lack of allies, or intercompany tie ups, and also no major shareholder. To be fair the management is looking at acquistions, they have thought about being a hunter, but their attitude makes me think that they have no plans in place on the off chance that they are the hunted.
6 Energy becoming a commodity with increasing demand world wide.
7 Countries and companies out to gain control to protect their energy supplies for the future.

Add all these up and you get NZO as one major take over target.

Management give their shareholders + others a feeling that they are so full of themselves to the point that they think they are bullet proof. The longer NZO meanders along shareprice wise and with the coffers filling, the fatter this lamb gets for the slaughter.


I have bought in at the high 80s cents so it have been a very successful investment for me already.

This is not a stock to have on your watchlist, if you don't care what happens either way don't buy in as it has its management and other market risks ...especially them doing something dopey with the oil revenue.....however if you are an investor that loses sleep at night kicking yourself when you miss any opportunity then you have to be in on this one and take the risks that come along with this share.

Yes it is possible that NZO may meander directionless for years due to poor management decisions, but I personally think there is a better chance of a hostile t/o happening. When a hostile T/O happens it will be instant!!... the shareprice will jump in a matter of minutes and all the talkers and watchers will miss out.

Hoop is in to win this NZO raffle

[clips]

hoop i think that is a fine summary.... , with present market cap. vs. cash flows and cash flow potential the words "take" and "over" readily spring to mind....

[dsurf]

Go Hoop - heres an idea - the blissful blind & the persistent miserable NON-HOLDING slaggers all agree on one thing - management are hopeless

Maybe they should invite bids from interested parties & let them do due diligence before making an offer?

Auction off NZO to the highest bidder - we all should contact Australian companies & suggest they do starting with AWE

[duncan macgregor]

This is not a stock to have on your watchlist[/U], if you don't care what happens either way don't buy in as it has its management and other market risks ...especially them doing something dopey with the oil revenue.....however if you are an investor that loses sleep at night kicking yourself when you miss any opportunity then you have to be in on this one and take the risks that come along with this share.

Yes it is possible that NZO may meander directionless for years due to poor management decisions, but I personally think there is a better chance of a hostile t/o happening. When a hostile T/O happens it will be instant!!... the shareprice will jump in a matter of minutes and all the talkers and watchers will miss out.

Hoop is in to win this NZO raffle Hoop i must say excellent post in how you perceive the company. I go for my opportunities this is not one of them due to i would say greedy management, not bad management, as the management have dragged the company up to this level. Its the next level i find uncomfortable with, the greed and complete disdain management have for the people that financed them up to this point. I cant see the scene change, unless management changes. Open disclosure of company policy according to different circumstances for starters would be a great move for the share price. Company policy to get the share price up to make the options worth something might help. The shareholders are grasping for straws as the boat sinks below that level, this is hard to understand with the money rolling in. I really feel sorry for the few trusting souls that think this company will have their interests at heart. Macdunk

[tim23]

How do you get dragged up to a level, are you confused?

[Hoop]

Hoop i must say excellent post in how you perceive the company. I go for my opportunities this is not one of them due to i would say greedy management, not bad management, as the management have dragged the company up to this level. Its the next level i find uncomfortable with, the greed and complete disdain management have for the people that financed them up to this point. I cant see the scene change, unless management changes. Open disclosure of company policy according to different circumstances for starters would be a great move for the share price. Company policy to get the share price up to make the options worth something might help. The shareholders are grasping for straws as the boat sinks below that level, this is hard to understand with the money rolling in. I really feel sorry for the few trusting souls that think this company will have their interests at heart. Macdunk

Yep..If the management stays, the company will stay undervalued, thats for sure. Apart from a T/O the only slight ray of sunshine for the head shares is that Management will put on a "friendly face" to extract more money from the option shareholders.

The one thing that this management is good at is extracting money from their shareholders. So I guess we can expect the "good news" PR machine to be cranked up shortly.
This feel good factor may see a rise up in the shareprice for a while, which will be bad for you MacD and Balance (and me too probably) as there will be a flood of "ha ha told you so" posts heading your way :p:p.
However the upside is that with this possible small window of opportunity, there may be a few bob to be made as long as we remember to sell out before the optimism fades with the options. For me investing mid/long term waiting for a possible T/O, this window will test my nerve, I may even sell up too. However a lot can happen between now and then.............2008 may be an exciting year:cool:.

[the machine]

so this weekend they start to install the kupe jacket [1 major risk about to be accomplished]
then ensco 107 starts production drilling pending arrival of the topside [2nd major risk lifting it onto the jacket].

after that happy production drilling and the offshore part of kupe should be substantially derisked by year end, although production drilling will of course go well into 2008.

trust they are doing horizontal production wells and will be keenly following the weekly drilling reports.

see below link for ensco specs

http://www.enscous.com/UploadFiles/RigFleet/ENSCO%20107.pdf

M

[geezy]

Once again the management scares me eventhough Pike has good prospects, why no remedy. sigh, we wanna buy the assets but the S*it came along with it. no wonder the great discount .

Just like buying a scratched new item on the shelf.

[the machine]

so this weekend they start to install the kupe jacket [1 major risk about to be accomplished]
then ensco 107 starts production drilling pending arrival of the topside [2nd major risk lifting it onto the jacket].

after that happy production drilling and the offshore part of kupe should be substantially derisked by year end, although production drilling will of course go well into 2008.

trust they are doing horizontal production wells and will be keenly following the weekly drilling reports.

see below link for ensco specs

http://www.enscous.com/UploadFiles/RigFleet/ENSCO%20107.pdf

M

since found this in the port taranki site

Mon 05/11 16:00 TERAS TRANSPORTER WEND other OUT kupe project >> GF/T&R B1 100m 0




thus the jacket installation will be later next week and not this weekend

M

[boysy]

Great article in NZ herald about NZOG and in particular the TUI field a shame they stuffed up some of the figures though

titled - Fun starts at Tui as oil nears record
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10473984

[Lion]

Great article in NZ herald about NZOG and in particular the TUI field a shame they stuffed up some of the figures though


Yeah, oil down to a dollar a barrel it says

[boysy]

well hey if that aint ammunition for a specialist energy reporter in NZ lol But hey good to see they are getting information bout TUI out there

[Dr_Who]

well hey if that aint ammunition for a specialist energy reporter in NZ lol But hey good to see they are getting information bout TUI out there

NZ market is way too small for a analyst. Most of the larger broking firms use their energy analyst from Aussie to do the analysis. NZO is too small for them to bother with.

[Mr Tommy]

Article in todays dominion, says AWE is paying $40,000 for the oil spill cleanup, but they still havnt confirmed where it came from.

[arjay]

According to the article on Stuff, the Umuroa is also a drilling rig. Wonder why the Co. didn't tell us that - talk about lack of transparency

[digger]

Info is finally getting to the general public about nZO. The other day i was told that the TUI oil field existed and was producing so as to registra on our trade account. My first thought was hey your telling me. Fortunally before i spoke i realised that this knowledge in the general arena is exactally what we have all been waiting for.This is the first i have heard about TUI from other than an oiler. So it is starting to be known.

[Nitaa]

Have i missed something? The news that oil tar balls were on a stretch of coastline somewhere in taranaki make investors ask questions. this information came our before the AGM. Was there anyone at the meeting raising the issue with NZO? If so i take it that it was a very small issue. If it wasnt raised then i would have to question the ones who went as to why it wasnt asked. There would have been an incident report detailing what exactly happened or what AWE thinks happened. This in turn should have been reported immediately to the JV partners.

Im looking forward to someone who knows something.

[Balance]

Oil leak from the platform? No big deal really. Tui is pumping out millions so a few hundred thousands here and there means bugger all.

Different if the oil is leaking straight out of the well into the sea though. Then we are looking at disaster! Tui gets shut down, millions of fines are imposed and clean up costs run to hundreds of millions. Shudder ....shudder!

[boysy]

Balance a probable cause has come to light but while you are thinking worse case scenario i will think best case scenario. A likely reserve upgrade ,facts about water cut being lower than expected, oil prices being far higher than were predicted and thus quarterly report showing just a tad more revenue than expected . Ive got no technical knoledge what so ever but im guessing they would know if oil was in fact leaking out of wells and it would be rather hard to try and keep that level of pollution underwraps .

[Nitaa]

The point is. There was an incident on the 21st. This leads me to the theory that it was an temporary or an isolated case. However, since there has not been any comments regarding this incident at the agm then i can only conclude it wasnt discussed. If that is the case then as investors we are playing blind mans bluff.

[duncan macgregor]

The point is. There was an incident on the 21st. This leads me to the theory that it was an temporary or an isolated case. However, since there has not been any comments regarding this incident at the agm then i can only conclude it wasnt discussed. If that is the case then as investors we are playing blind mans bluff.
I would think that the investors that voted in favour of being ripped off at the AGM would not have the wit to ask. I would also think that a reasonable company would go to great lengths to reassure investors in an accident of this magnitude. The end result is a few more selling out and moving on never to return. Macdunk

[shasta]

I would think that the investors that voted in favour of being ripped off at the AGM would not have the wit to ask. I would also think that a reasonable company would go to great lengths to reassure investors in an accident of this magnitude. The end result is a few more selling out and moving on never to return. Macdunk

Macdunk

Its a bit unfair pointing the finger at NZO over the spill...

We hold 12.5% of the JV & thus will incur 1/8th of the costs, BUT for a producer spitting out over 40,000bopd (12.5% share) im sure the expense is a mere blip to the revenues of approx $NZ5m per week being accrued.

The next quarterly will show revenues in excess of $50m, what else have we all been waiting for?

NZO IS PRODUCING & EARNING REVENUE! :eek:

Not even NZO's previously inept management cant stuff that up!

Hard to please some :(

[Toddy]

The market movements in NZO/NZOOD looked a little odd today. Maybe its the cunning investors manipulating the price of the heads to slowly off load the risky and over priced options.

Not much has changed. If you look back at the history of the OC's trading leading up to exercise date, then you will observe the same kind of behaviour happening.

[Bilo]

I would think that the investors that voted in favour of being ripped off at the AGM would not have the wit to ask. I would also think that a reasonable company would go to great lengths to reassure investors in an accident of this magnitude. The end result is a few more selling out and moving on never to return. Macdunk

McDunc
First the votes at the AGM were controlled by the chairman. It didn't matter what anyone said he had in excess of 120M proxies, if the reporting hasn't made that blatantly obvious the chair certainly did by mentioning it as his very first utterance - up yours too as it were. Any vote against the chair would have been a meer protest vote, name booked in the minutes as a disagreeable bug_er.

The oil spill incident wasn't mentioned during the meeting but a written update ex AWE was available at the meeting - hence there was little additional to say at that time.

Attending the AGM was a waste of time - I guess that was why you weren't there or because you aren't a shareholder and therefore not invited?

[blockhead]

The point is. There was an incident on the 21st. This leads me to the theory that it was an temporary or an isolated case. However, since there has not been any comments regarding this incident at the agm then i can only conclude it wasnt discussed. If that is the case then as investors we are playing blind mans bluff.

Nita, do you not read the information NZO makes available ? There for all to see, McDunc included, the Co kept investors well informed re the oil spillage (imo)

[blockhead]

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?QQE=ASX&QQSC=neo&QuickQuote=Go+%3E%3E

meant to add this

[blockhead]

Thats not right for some reason, go to DirectBrokings site and look at "News" on NZO's chart

[Nitaa]

blockhead.

Are you referring to the article below..re update on discharge incident. I havent included the first post dated 25th Oct (the day before this announcement) as this one seems more appropriate. If you want to review the first one then cut and paste this link http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=NZSE&N=155698

imo i considered the announcement to the market was only because of the news that tar balls were evident along a particular stretch of the Taranak coastline. No specific mention was made of where exactly or how long the stretch covered. You made a point in saying that they had disclosed enough or relevant information. I guess as a shareholder i am a lone voice in sharing an opposite view to the rest of NZO holders. clealry AWE and the JV did not think that the information was important to the market at the time. But why not ease investors minds by specifying the extent of the problem, what caused it etc, potential volume of oil spillage or whatever. Personally i am more dissapointed that no one asked for more detailed information or at least a copy of the incident report that was made to the maritime dept. As i said, clearly i am a lone voice in this particular incident and one that i wont continue to fight a losing battle.

On a different stock but considering we on the topic of disclosure, i want to draw a parrelel with Geneva Finance. The company today got a reprieve from its investors. Only time will tell if they made a right decision. Clearly Geneva had or has some things to hide due to lack of disclosure. The consumer Institute wanted to be at the meeting but wasnt invited. Geneva had that right but if they had a solid plan and want to be transparent then it would have been a great vote of confidence by letting them come along. By not allowing it then has the opposite effect. so what about NZO and the Oil leak problem. To me the same thing. Is it actually worse than what it was lead to believe. If its nothing then why didnt the company make a mention of it at the agm. it would have been good pr if they had especially if the incident was mnore or less a non event. imo it is worse than that but have no idea how much worse.

NZO
26/10/2007
GENERAL

REL: 0933 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: UPDATE ON DISCHARGE INCIDENT

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has been advised that that the oil
recovered from the Taranaki coast appears to be similar to oil produced from
the Tui oil field. As a participant in the Tui Area Oil Project, NZOG is
working closely with the Joint Venture operator of the field, AWE Ltd, to
complete the investigations.
AWE has also identified an incident which occurred on the Floating Production
Storage and Offloading vessel 'Umuroa' on 21 October, 2007, which could be
related to the oil found on the coast. This incident, reported to Maritime
New Zealand on that day, involved the discharge of potentially contaminated
produced water from the Tui field.

Investigations into whether the oil on the beach can be directly linked to
the Umuroa discharge are incomplete.
AWE is working closely with New Zealand authorities, including Maritime New
Zealand and the Taranaki Regional Council, to identify the nature and source
of the oil. AWE has supplied a sample of Tui project crude to Maritime NZ
for analysis and comparison with the degraded oil washed up on the coast.
NZOG has been advised that Taranaki Regional Council has collected
approximately six cubic metres of contaminated sand, and this is believed to
be the majority of the affected area.
The Tui area oil project lies approximately 60 km from the Taranaki
coastline.

ENDS
End CA:00155752 For:NZO Type:GENERAL Time:2007-10-26:09:33:21

[blockhead]

Are you referring to the article below..re update on discharge incident. I havent included
REL: 0933 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

Yes Nita, I think they told all they knew at the time, surely that is fair enough isn't it ?

Any further comment re amounts or source at the time would have been conjecture.

[Toddy]

You guys shouldn't really be complaining.

I would be more than happy to read an incident report that said.................... The main highway into Greymouth has been closed this morning due to a truck spilling 50 tonnes of Pike River top grade hard coking coal.


It would mean that action is happening and money is being banked.

[digger]

Seems strange to me that we now want the news media to report more of the oil spill,as if we still believe the news media can get a fact anywhere near correct. Just the other day we were told that the 'Umuroa" was a drilling rig.God alone knows what this level of reporting would make of the oil balls at Taranaki beach. It looks like we just have to accept that whatever incident happened on 21 oct is very unlikely to ever happen again.

[arjay]

Bilo,
According to the Co. the resolutions at the AGM were passed by a 'show of hands'. To me this implies tht regardless of how many proxies the chair held, a majority of shareholders attending the meeting put their paws in the air when it came time to approve more swill in the trough for the exec. Can anyone attending comment - Digger?

[Dr_Who]

From what I have heard and read, the only thing holding NZO sp back is the chairman. So when is the chairman gonna step down?

[bermuda]

. 1. NZO has not only survived 26 years but is now poised to deliver annual revenues in excess of NZ100 million per annum for at least 10 years-possibly 20 years plus.

2. It has developed 3 international projects one of which is producing revenues well in excess of that forecast

3.The Tui project was completed in record time and well beow the costs it could have incurred if the company had not had the foresight to negotiate rig rates well in advance .

4. The Chairman at the 2006 AGM forecast oil prices at $US90 by October 2007. The price today is $US94 per barrel

5.With the US dollar under enormous pressure the price of oil will remain high and go higher.

6.If one reads Kenneth Defreyes "Feedback Loops" and Matt Simmons "Twilight in the Desert" and William Clarks 53 page report on Petrodollarwarfare ( see www.petrodollarwarfare.com ) then you will realise that there are some serious oil price hikes ahead

[dsurf]

The market movements in NZO/NZOOD looked a little odd today. Maybe its the cunning investors manipulating the price of the heads to slowly off load the risky and over priced options.

Not much has changed. If you look back at the history of the OC's trading leading up to exercise date, then you will observe the same kind of behaviour happening.

The heads have traded very funny - looks almost like someone is trying to keep the price from rising - while building a stake. Yesterday was typical - VWAP on 100+K was 105, then someone sold 500 odd at 104. Also I have noticed the "close auction" is usually manipulated with the offer never fully hit, ie if there are 10k to be bought they will buy 9.9K & leave the offer the same for tomorrow. This is not what someone does who wants the price to go up - they would buy 10.1K

Not a conspiracy - just fun & games

[Mingeathinaikos]

At what point are people expecting the ODs to start to slip in value?? They are at their lowest in 6 months, and surely not a lot to save them now.... a lift at the next quaterly but will surely be too late to put them in the money???

I'm still in the heads as i think NZO undervalued, but just can't see the market correcting this by June '08 so am out of the OD's.

Can understand holding on to a few thousand as a bit of a play, but surely the larger holders of the options are now either selling or dreaming.....

[arjay]

. 1. NZO has not only survived 26 years but is now poised to deliver annual revenues in excess of NZ100 million per annum for at least 10 years-possibly 20 years plus.

2. It has developed 3 international projects one of which is producing revenues well in excess of that forecast

3.The Tui project was completed in record time and well beow the costs it could have incurred if the company had not had the foresight to negotiate rig rates well in advance .

4. The Chairman at the 2006 AGM forecast oil prices at $US90 by October 2007. The price today is $US94 per barrel

5.With the US dollar under enormous pressure the price of oil will remain high and go higher.

6.If one reads Kenneth Defreyes "Feedback Loops" and Matt Simmons "Twilight in the Desert" and William Clarks 53 page report on Petrodollarwarfare ( see www.petrodollarwarfare.com ) then you will realise that there are some serious oil price hikes ahead


Not sure who's post you were replying to Bermuda, but you're not wrong with your points - the Co. has a great future ahead of it. My point is that the Co. should not be seeking to increase the flow of wealth to their own executives while at the same time telling the ordinary shareholder to wait until after the bills are paid. Similarly I don't believe the ordinary shareholder should be voting for such remits - however that's their priviledge. All NZOers (shareholders, TR and directors alike) should be waiting till the CO. is in the black before trying to cash in.

Dr Who - I saw a car wiht a 'Dr Who' number plate at the Cock n Bull Te Rapa the other day. Was that you?

[trackers]

At what point are people expecting the ODs to start to slip in value?? They are at their lowest in 6 months, and surely not a lot to save them now.... a lift at the next quaterly but will surely be too late to put them in the money???

I'm still in the heads as i think NZO undervalued, but just can't see the market correcting this by June '08 so am out of the OD's.

Can understand holding on to a few thousand as a bit of a play, but surely the larger holders of the options are now either selling or dreaming.....

People might be still banking on some good news in the new year with Kupe and Pike I suspect... And fair enough (disc: hold heads)

[bermuda]

At what point are people expecting the ODs to start to slip in value?? They are at their lowest in 6 months, and surely not a lot to save them now.... a lift at the next quaterly but will surely be too late to put them in the money???

I'm still in the heads as i think NZO undervalued, but just can't see the market correcting this by June '08 so am out of the OD's.

Can understand holding on to a few thousand as a bit of a play, but surely the larger holders of the options are now either selling or dreaming.....

I think you will find that a lot of the larger option holders sold out after the Taranui news. I did.

But I wish all option holders all the best. It is not over yet. Kupe and a continued high oil price could easily see them in the money.

[Dr_Who]

Dr Who - I saw a car wiht a 'Dr Who' number plate at the Cock n Bull Te Rapa the other day. Was that you?

Na, not me mate. Have not been to that part of the woods for awhile. Must be one of the distance relatives..LOL

[Toddy]

I think you will find that a lot of the larger option holders sold out after the Taranui news. I did.

But I wish all option holders all the best. It is not over yet. Kupe and a continued high oil price could easily see them in the money.

True

But I really struggle with the quality of investors on NZO's books. If the shareholders are not prepared to dish out just over a dollar to buy the stock today, then what makes you think that they will be all rushing to the register to dish out $1.50 in a few months time.

I personally don't think that the investors in this stock have the cash to stump up $1.50 per share. (except for the management that is, on their flash incomes and recently voted increased fees).

[Mr Tommy]

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has been advised by AWE Ltd, the operator of
the Tui Area Oil Project, that the clean-up of oil along a section of the Taranaki coast has
been completed.
While Maritime New Zealand is conducting further tests, the Tui Joint Venture accepts
that the source of the degraded oil was a discharge of oil-contaminated water from the
Floating Production, Storage and Offtake vessel Umuroa on Sunday 21 October.
Immediate measures have been taken to guard against any repeat of this incident.
Production operations at Tui have continued uninterrupted since the incident. The
integrity of the production wells and facilities is not in question.
AWE is co-operating fully with Maritime New Zealand and the clean-up costs will be met
in full. These costs are not expected to be material. A decision on whether or not there
will be any further action lies with Maritime New Zealand.

[shane_m]

that is good news, I got out on the spill ann, will get back in later in the week.

seems like there is no oil leak form the well as few suggested. whats next? big tsunami is going to come through and take out the Umuroa?

[boysy]

baggers will hop on any scap of news and try and make it worst case scenario. I mean honestly NZO is a jv partner if anything big went down im sure AWE would be upfront with market.

[Nitaa]

a good positve announcement. As mentioned in my prior post, it was an opportunity for some good pr to alleviate any concerns investors may have had. There is of course the possibility of a fine however i dont believe this will be significant. The reason being was the operator notified Maritime NZ at the time. sbject to no discrepencies in the report then any fine will be minimal.

[digger]

a good positve announcement. As mentioned in my prior post, it was an opportunity for some good pr to alleviate any concerns investors may have had. There is of course the possibility of a fine however i dont believe this will be significant. The reason being was the operator notified Maritime NZ at the time. sbject to no discrepencies in the report then any fine will be minimal.

Yes i think a fine at this stage will be minimal if any.Wouldn't pay to make it a habit.Next time it would be considerable.

[digger]

Bilo,
According to the Co. the resolutions at the AGM were passed by a 'show of hands'. To me this implies tht regardless of how many proxies the chair held, a majority of shareholders attending the meeting put their paws in the air when it came time to approve more swill in the trough for the exec. Can anyone attending comment - Digger?
This years options fall into two catagories.
I am not quite so annoyed about this years staff options as last year.If i remember correctly last year i could not get anyone worked up about them. This year the options are further spread to other directors and management which is desirable.The fact as i stated before these staff options are exercised in two years and must pay 20% more at that time compared to when they were taken up. Helen is already moaning that in the US these are given free. But then the US is going backwards so are no longer a good example.
The options issued to TR are a different story and i did not vote for them. Last year TR seemed to hog the lot or throughout the year organise it so as to benefit himself,which was not a good showing especially when the rest of us had to pay full price at the cash issue. You might also remember at last years AGM i told TR he was not well liked or trusted by the brokers for this very reason.Some afterwards told me he is on a par with brokers for trust and respect which i find very easy to agree with..Nevertheless we need brokers on side to help lift info of the company and the SP.
Furthermore i feel nothing would give the company and the SP a boost as much as TR making a formal statement that he will not take up these options authorised this AGM nor any in the future until the SP is north of 2 dollars.That would not only recognise the seemly forgotton average shareholder as it now stands but would in turn benefit himself greatly as he is by far the largest single shareholder.To me TR grabbing more shares now is proverbially penny wise and pound foolish.It just does far too much image damage to the company.
Unless we all want the SP to stay at about a dollar forever,shareholders will have to organise before the next AGM to this effect.Image control will be important from here on in and i have come away from the recent AGM being very aware that this is collectively more fully understood by the shareholders than by the directors and management.
Watch this space if there is not change in image management in the coming future.

[shasta]

This years options fall into two catagories.
I am not quite so annoyed about this years staff options as last year.If i remember correctly last year i could not get anyone worked up about them. This year the options are further spread to other directors and management which is desirable.The fact as i stated before these staff options are exercised in two years and must pay 20% more at that time compared to when they were taken up. Helen is already moaning that in the US these are given free. But then the US is going backwards so are no longer a good example.
The options issued to TR are a different story and i did not vote for them. Last year TR seemed to hog the lot or throughout the year organise it so as to benefit himself,which was not a good showing especially when the rest of us had to pay full price at the cash issue. You might also remember at last years AGM i told TR he was not well liked or trusted by the brokers for this very reason.Some afterwards told me he is on a par with brokers for trust and respect which i find very easy to agree with..Nevertheless we need brokers on side to help lift info of the company and the SP.
Furthermore i feel nothing would give the company and the SP a boost as much as TR making a formal statement that he will not take up these options authorised this AGM nor any in the future until the SP is north of 2 dollars.That would not only recognise the seemly forgotton average shareholder as it now stands but would in turn benefit himself greatly as he is by far the largest single shareholder.To me TR grabbing more shares now is proverbially penny wise and pound foolish.It just does far too much image damage to the company.
Unless we all want the SP to stay at about a dollar forever,shareholders will have to organise before the next AGM to this effect.Image control will be important from here on in and i have come away from the recent AGM being very aware that this is collectively more fully understood by the shareholders than by the directors and management.
Watch this space if there is not change in image management in the coming future.

Digger

With NZO earning the revenue that it currently is & with it set to continue for some forseeable time - if the SP doesnt head north it will get taken over in a hostile raid...

At the moment there would be plenty of grumby holders happy with $1.30 right now!

I wouldnt be personally, but do see this as a real prospect...

I hope im wrong

[arjay]

You're perfectly correct Shasta. There is now a significant amount of cash flowing into NZO, however the ordinary shareholder is not seeing any of it therefore they are not motivated to place more value on the SP. However, a takeover has the ability to tap into the true value of the company, therefore a would-be taker-over would be motivated to offer a higher value on a share than the ordinary investor is currently willing to pay.

[Mingeathinaikos]

You're perfectly correct Shasta. There is now a significant amount of cash flowing into NZO, however the ordinary shareholder is not seeing any of it therefore they are not motivated to place more value on the SP. However, a takeover has the ability to tap into the true value of the company, therefore a would-be taker-over would be motivated to offer a higher value on a share than the ordinary investor is currently willing to pay.

Does waiting to July '08 to take this company over have any merit?? Then options out of the system either way...not sure if this actually changes anything???

When digger aint happy with NZO and posts like the one a couple above, this has to be an insight for sharetrader punters into the state of the shareprice of this coy over the next 3 months......

[upside_umop]

arjay, there doesnt need to be tangible returns to shareholders for the sp increase. does warren buffet pay dividends? i would personally prefer NZO to reinvest and reinvest and reinvest and reinvest and reinvest..you get the picture. it looks like they will do that for a while too, so for the medium term im happy.

still a bit of derisking to do...thats when the shareprice will make leaps.

[Wiremu]

Digger,

I am not sure what you are on about when you talk about options being issued to TR.

The Annual Meeting I attended voted on the issue of partly paid shares to named non-executive directors under the terms of the employee share plan. TR was not one of the named directors.

Also these are not options. They are partly paid shares which have to be paid for in full, including the 20% premium. The 20% premium appears to be the only fact that you have correct.

[Hoop]

Does waiting to July '08 to take this company over have any merit?? Then options out of the system either way...not sure if this actually changes anything???

When digger aint happy with NZO and posts like the one a couple above, this has to be an insight for sharetrader punters into the state of the shareprice of this coy over the next 3 months......

A good point. One strategy to lessen the risk of a takeover is to issue more shares. If the options are a goneburger then the risk will rise.

I would expect the Management to protect their pig trough, so they may have already looked in their text books for defense strategies. Aquisitions and crossover type mergering may be one strategy of many to choose from. From the Management dialogue, they seem to be looking at this aquisition scernerio closely.

[sideline]

from Bloomberg:

Oil Rises Above $97 to a Record as North Sea Platforms Closed

By Mark Shenk

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $97 a barrel in New York to a record as a storm forecast to produce 36-foot waves in the North Sea forced BP Plc and ConocoPhillips to evacuate workers and cut production.

Conoco and BP said they have started evacuating workers from some facilities before the weather worsens. The North Sea produced 4.4 million barrels of oil a day last year, more than OPEC member Iran. An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show crude-oil supplies fell 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``All indications point to inventories falling yet again,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Overnight the dollar against the euro and the attack on the pipeline in Yemen was a reminder of how precarious supplies are. Now there are evacuations of North Sea platforms, just what we don't need.''

Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.69, or 2.9 percent, to $96.67 barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed to $97.10 today, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983.

Brent crude oil for December settlement rose $2.69, or 3 percent, to $93.18 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached $93.56 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1988.

Evacuations

Workers on ConocoPhillips' Ekofisk A, B and C platforms, as well as Eldfisk A and B, are being moved to land or to safer sites, said Kurt Mikkelsen, a ConocoPhillips spokesman. BP is moving 150 workers from its Valhall field and expects the platform's 80,000 barrel-a-day oil and gas output to stop late tomorrow, spokesman Jan Erik Geirmo said in an interview.

``Supply worries, geopolitical concerns and economic forces are all working to send prices higher,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``Anxiety over Pakistan, the bombing of a pipeline in Yemen and the falling dollar are all in focus today. There are expectations for a considerable decline in crude stocks.''

An oil pipeline in north-central Yemen was blown up by tribesmen, the Deutsche-Presse Agentur news service reported, citing unidentified police officials. Tribesmen have frequently attacked the pipeline and it wasn't immediately clear whether the attackers were linked to al-Qaeda militants, DPA said. There were no reports of casualties.

``The Yemen blast is a reminder that there should be a terror premium,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``If it turns out that al-Qaeda was involved, prices will soar.''

Tomorrow's Report

U.S. crude-oil supplies fell 9.18 million barrels in the last two weekly reports from the Energy Department. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report on inventories tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Mexican oil production was reduced last week because of stormy weather. The country is the second-biggest supplier of oil to the U.S

``There's a lot of trading in anticipation of'' the inventory report, said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a New Canaan, Connecticut, energy consultant. ``Imports from Mexico were down by a great deal, which will be reflected in tomorrow's numbers.''

Heating oil for December delivery rose 6.46 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $2.6085 a gallon in New York. Futures touched $2.6198, the highest since trading began in 1978. Gasoline for December delivery rose 5.29 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $2.434 a gallon in New York.

Record Low

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on speculation financial-company losses from U.S. subprime-mortgage defaults will grow, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for a third time this year. A falling dollar enhances the appeal of commodities as an investment.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $12.60, or 1.6 percent, to $823.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price earlier climbed to $828, the highest for a most-active contract since Jan. 21, 1980, the day gold reached a record $873.

``OPEC wants higher prices when the dollar falls,'' Flynn said. ``Also, when the dollar falls oil becomes relatively cheaper in Europe and other places. Prices may be higher there but they are seeing nothing like the increases here.''

In U.S. dollars, West Texas Intermediate, the New York- traded crude-oil benchmark, is up 58 percent so far this year. Oil is up 43 percent in euros, 49 percent in British pounds and 52 percent in yen.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have said a falling dollar justified higher prices because oil- producing countries sell oil in dollars and often buy goods in euros and yen.

$100 Oil

``Chances are that we'll reach $100 but we probably won't stay there long,'' said Antoine Halff, the head of energy research at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``The fundamentals haven't tightened much since we were at $75. Prices should also come down because the Saudis are cutting prices to key customers.''

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, cut its December official selling prices to the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net .;
Last Updated: November 6, 2007 14:47 EST

[arjay]

The Tui field was developed on the basis that $40 per barrel would make it profitable. Oil is now approaching $100 per barrel, however the NZO SP is dropping (down 1c as I write) in part because none of the current windfall is flowing back to the shareholder. What I believe should happen is for NZO to determine a price per barrel that makes Tui profitable and pays back loans etc in a timely fashion. This would be abov ethe original $40 due to associated extra costs. HOwever, let's say this value is $60 (for argument sake). Anything above that value could then be deemed a windfall and distributed to shareholders. The effect of doing this would be to stimulate interest in NZO stock while oil prices remain high while also quickly paying back debt. High oil prices should continue into the medium term at so this should also see the options converted. I see this as being win-win all round with return to shareholders, extra funds flowing in next July, and the Directors will still be able to ask for increased fees again at the next AGM.

[sideline]

The Tui field was developed on the basis that $40 per barrel would make it profitable. Oil is now approaching $100 per barrel, however the NZO SP is dropping (down 1c as I write) in part because none of the current windfall is flowing back to the shareholder. What I believe should happen is for NZO to determine a price per barrel that makes Tui profitable and pays back loans etc in a timely fashion. This would be abov ethe original $40 due to associated extra costs. HOwever, let's say this value is $60 (for argument sake). Anything above that value could then be deemed a windfall and distributed to shareholders. The effect of doing this would be to stimulate interest in NZO stock while oil prices remain high while also quickly paying back debt. High oil prices should continue into the medium term at so this should also see the options converted. I see this as being win-win all round with return to shareholders, extra funds flowing in next July, and the Directors will still be able to ask for increased fees again at the next AGM.

Fully aggree, arjay. There are many other ways of giving value back to shareholders, if dividends are not tax
efficient yet because it will take time to build up imputation credits.

[Toddy]

The Tui field was developed on the basis that $40 per barrel would make it profitable. Oil is now approaching $100 per barrel, however the NZO SP is dropping (down 1c as I write) in part because none of the current windfall is flowing back to the shareholder. What I believe should happen is for NZO to determine a price per barrel that makes Tui profitable and pays back loans etc in a timely fashion. This would be abov ethe original $40 due to associated extra costs. HOwever, let's say this value is $60 (for argument sake). Anything above that value could then be deemed a windfall and distributed to shareholders. The effect of doing this would be to stimulate interest in NZO stock while oil prices remain high while also quickly paying back debt. High oil prices should continue into the medium term at so this should also see the options converted. I see this as being win-win all round with return to shareholders, extra funds flowing in next July, and the Directors will still be able to ask for increased fees again at the next AGM.

Oh no Arjay, you are not suggesting that NZO 'lock in' some of these gains and give certainty to the market. That would be considered 'down risking'.

The SP behaviour beats me though. You are right, the SP should be heading north is these good times.

[Dr_Who]

We can talk till we are blue, but management wont listen. The best way is for someone to come in and buy a large chunk of the company and restructure management.

[sideline]

Well, the last three days trading volumes were below 100000 shares, far below the average.
I don't think that I can read much significance into the price movements, except that the buyers are
elsewhere (today they'll all be in TEL and AIA) while the few sellers have to take what's on offer.
If the moves were on big volumes I'd see it different. (and I'd look at the VWAP and not the last
100 share sale price)

[Mr Tommy]

Wasnt Tui meant to payback the investment in 3 months ?
Its been producing now for just over 3 months, I wonder if it has achieved this yet.

Also getting back to the oil spill, is there any sort of insurance policy taken out. What if this had been an Exxon Valdez level spill ?

BWR can you answer?

[Nitaa]

going strickly by what has been produced then its fair to say that tui is now paid for itself. approx 10% has been extracted and approx another 30mbo to go or $US3b to go based on current prices.

[arjay]

Mr Tommy,
Tui will be well-paid off now, especially as income has exceeded that originally used to calculate the 3 month pay-back time. I have no doubt that our Co. leaders have already included such a quick retirement of debt into their next round of remuneration negotiations.

[macduffy]

I don't hold NZO but in my experience it isn't in the nature of O&G companies to pay big divs - they much prefer to pay a small "sustainable" level of div, once income allows, and to pour the bulk of cash back into exploration. I think if you hold these companies you have to accept this and look to capital gains for your payback. For whatever reason(s), the market isn't enamoured of NZO but that's another and complicated subject.

Disc: AOE/CUE/NWE/ARQ/AWE/BPT

[duncan macgregor]

going strickly by what has been produced then its fair to say that tui is now paid for itself. approx 10% has been extracted and approx another 30mbo to go or $US3b to go based on current prices. NITA, How much of that will come your way as a shareholder?. No dividends no clear direction of company intentions. The snouts in the trough were voted second helpings by the gullible, plus the company treats the share holders with the non disclosure and contempt they deserve. I do notice the changing attitude from people that used to gush on and on about the prospects.
Pass the parcel has gone from its high, to less than a third, the sp has dropped from its high by about 30c at a time you would expect an uptrend. More holes in the ground with you being asked for more money when they fritter this lot away, thats what you can expect. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

NITA, How much of that will come your way as a shareholder?. No dividends no clear direction of company intentions. The snouts in the trough were voted second helpings by the gullible, plus the company treats the share holders with the non disclosure and contempt they deserve. I do notice the changing attitude from people that used to gush on and on about the prospects.
Pass the parcel has gone from its high, to less than a third, the sp has dropped from its high by about 30c at a time you would expect an uptrend. More holes in the ground with you being asked for more money when they fritter this lot away, thats what you can expect. Macdunkduncan, i have made it quite clear on my thoughts of TR. No company is perfect and NZO is far from it. Having said all that i still try to base my investment decision on other factors and not just because of 1 person. Hence i am a holder of nzo.

personally i dont care what (where have i heard that phrase) investment companys you invest into. that is your call even if i think you are caught up in all the hype that is now becoming a bubble. sooner or later...pop....

[shane_m]

dunk stop nagging like a little girl, here are few oil stocks

AMU
PSA
STX
WPL
PYM
OEL
AED

have a look and tell me which ones are trading at a discount compared their peers. your old mate Shane.

[Dr_Who]

Mcdunky has a point. I've also heard in the financial grapevine that the market does not trust the management of NZO and hence dont want to buy the shares. I am a shareholder, so it is in my best interest to see this company do well. Another NZ company with so much potential, but so little faith in its management.

You dont need a PHD to see that the market is not happy with NZO. Oil is near $100 and the SP drops... LOL.. Maybe GPG can come and have another crack at NZO.

ps: I will buy more shares in NZO if the chairman steps down.

[upside_umop]

The Tui field was developed on the basis that $40 per barrel would make it profitable. Oil is now approaching $100 per barrel, however the NZO SP is dropping (down 1c as I write) in part because none of the current windfall is flowing back to the shareholder. What I believe should happen is for NZO to determine a price per barrel that makes Tui profitable and pays back loans etc in a timely fashion. This would be abov ethe original $40 due to associated extra costs. HOwever, let's say this value is $60 (for argument sake). Anything above that value could then be deemed a windfall and distributed to shareholders. The effect of doing this would be to stimulate interest in NZO stock while oil prices remain high while also quickly paying back debt. High oil prices should continue into the medium term at so this should also see the options converted. I see this as being win-win all round with return to shareholders, extra funds flowing in next July, and the Directors will still be able to ask for increased fees again at the next AGM.

I think your missing the part of risk.
Oil has been as low at $50 in 2007, so its volatile and there is no reason to say it wont drop that low in the future. So given this, potential investors dont automatically assume that Tui will be umpteen times more profitable. Its all about the price risk. If we locked in a proportion it could be a different story, but other posters have already shown the risks on that too. ie, big storm, have to buy on spot market and sell at loss...could do more options, but then you pay premiums etc and people will look at management negatively oil was to go higher. Its a risky business isnt it? Risk vs Return.

Sure they can pay back debt, but every company has an optimal capital structure, and to simply 'pay back all debt' would be much worse off for the shareholders.

Also, giving a 'special dividend' as it would be called, would be kinda crazy when the company has stated they are looking acquistions and assets. It would also give off wrong signals, to us, the shareholders, in what the company is trying to achieve.

To me, the company is doing exactly what they said they were going to do. They are NOT going to pay dividends in medium term until imputation credits available and that they have used their tax advantages. They have stated they are looking for an acquistion, and many of their other long term plans. Ie, increase oil production to 2mmbo by 2012, 25mmboe reserves etc. Surely, that is going to involve a bit of investment. This is a growth company, and not in a mature stage therefore i would pull out if there were any sort of return paid to shareholders.

You should do the same (ie pull out), because, end of the day, the company has stated their where they want to go, how they're going to get there, and what its going to involve and it obviously doesnt fit in with anyone who wants a tangible return. Does it?

Read back throught the last hundred pages to refresh on why no returns will be made. Jump into telecom mate, they will pay a nice dividend and you will also see the result underinvestment and a longterm decline in the sp. Nice rise today though.

[Mr Tommy]

Im pretty sure I heard correct that NOG has only 17 staff (including the tea lady)
So they are running a pretty tight ship. Not bad for a company in the top 50.

[sideline]

I think your missing the part of risk.
Oil has been as low at $50 in 2007, so its volatile and there is no reason to say it wont drop that low in the future. ................

NO REASON?? Ever heard about peak oil?????????

Otherwise I mainly agree with your post.

[Wiremu]

Upside_umop

Good posting.

The only trouble with being a shareholder in NZOG is having to put up with the trolls who inhabit this site, who dont want to get their facts right, and whose only suggestion is to sack management. And then theres Dunc.

[arjay]

I think your missing the part of risk.....

Also, giving a 'special dividend' as it would be called, would be kinda crazy when the company has stated they are looking acquistions and assets. It would also give off wrong signals, to us, the shareholders, in what the company is trying to achieve.



You are correct Upside and this is exactly my point. If the Co. is really committed on re-investing in growth, why are they giving 'dividends' (in the form of a huge rise to TR last year and extra bonuses to the directors this year) when those guys should be pulling their belt in until NZO discover the elephant they're asking us to fund? As you say, they're giving off the wrong signals to the investing public.

[Nitaa]

good post guys and i agree. at the end of the day as shareholders we are the ones to blame and not tr for being greedy. if you dont ask you dont get. he asked and he got. it is really that simple.

[Lion]

Tapis has hit $100!

[Glendoonie]

... stop nagging like a little girl ...

Trolls and the odd chauvinist. Yay :rolleyes:

[shasta]

Trolls and the odd chauvinist. Yay :rolleyes:

Oh dear god, why oh why are we still talking about dividends?

We must remember we arent some nickel/base metal explorer, where everyone hangs out for drill results & the quarterlies, where management put more spin on things than Shane Warne ever did.

Whoever mentioned that "Buffett doesnt pay dividends", was on the right track.

It's how NZO allocates & uses its capital that is of more importance, than trying to satisfy "traders" wanting some "special dividend".

I suspect many here still holding NZO would bail on a 20c spike anyways, so why would NZO be held to ransom & bow down to those with a short term focus?

With literally 2 decades of substantial income now locked in, paying down debt levels is the BEST thing NZO can do right now.

Why, because the future cashflows will service the debt on the acquistion(s) NZO will need to grow (to meet the 2mmbo per year target) & avoid being taken over in the process.

[digger]

Oh dear god, why oh why are we still talking about dividends?

We must remember we arent some nickel/base metal explorer, where everyone hangs out for drill results & the quarterlies, where management put more spin on things than Shane Warne ever did.

Whoever mentioned that "Buffett doesnt pay dividends", was on the right track.

It's how NZO allocates & uses its capital that is of more importance, than trying to satisfy "traders" wanting some "special dividend".

I suspect many here still holding NZO would bail on a 20c spike anyways, so why would NZO be held to ransom & bow down to those with a short term focus?

With literally 2 decades of substantial income now locked in, paying down debt levels is the BEST thing NZO can do right now.

Why, because the future cashflows will service the debt on the acquistion(s) NZO will need to grow (to meet the 2mmbo per year target) & avoid being taken over in the process.


Shasta i believe in two things that must go together. True the company should not pay dividends until credits are available. We should be patient and wait. Unfortunately TR should also wait and so should directors and staff. I have spent some time with a small amount of success getting investers into NZO. It hurts when the average shareholders is told by management no to any payout as it is too early then turn around and become the CEO in NZ that takes home the biggest pay rise on NZX. Also last year at the AGM we had some benifits and again this year.This take as much as you shareholders will give me is starting to become a bad habit and from the feedback i am getting it explains some why the SP stays at a dollar when Tapis has just hit 100. Such a thing would have been unthinkable just a few years ago---but so would all the staff and personal benifits been unthinkable.
You mentioned Warren Buffett. Warren takes great pride in getting a small CEO income and has no personal benifits that are not available to all shareholders. That fact as i have read several times explains the great respect the investing Public has in him.

[Paddie]

Market up 1.7% and oil at a record high, and look at good old NZO.

Why would you want to buy NZO!

Paddie

[boysy]

You would buy NZO because it is undervalued paddie you have to ask yourself would you rather buy a under or overvalued stock ?

[Paddie]

You would buy NZO because it is undervalued paddie you have to ask yourself would you rather buy a under or overvalued stock ?

There are so many better opportunties around than this mob.

To many heads in the trough.

good luck

Paddie

[soltrader]

You would buy NZO because it is undervalued paddie you have to ask yourself would you rather buy a under or overvalued stock ?


But, it looks like there are very few buyers, despite the fact NZO is undervalued?

[shasta]

You would buy NZO because it is undervalued paddie you have to ask yourself would you rather buy a under or overvalued stock ?

It is undervalued, but seemingly for a valid reason at present.

Digger - i agree that NZO's management shouldnt be lining there own pockets with our money, but what listed companies arent?

What the Directors/Management/Senior Staff need to show to the market is that they intend to align there generous options to "challenging, but obtainable targets", & these should be aligned to SP appreciation.

Perhaps something like 50% of the options at a strike price of $X + 25%, (with a year to achieve it) & the other 50% @ $X + 50% (within 2 years)

X = the weighted average SP over a certain timeframe.

[boysy]

that comes from the stigma attached to this company. I mean first of all they have to get the brokers on side the underlying value of this company is plain to see. What isnt so apparent is how management is planning to achieve the true potential of this company.

[bermuda]

The Tui field was developed on the basis that $40 per barrel would make it profitable. Oil is now approaching $100 per barrel, however the NZO SP is dropping (down 1c as I write) in part because none of the current windfall is flowing back to the shareholder. What I believe should happen is for NZO to determine a price per barrel that makes Tui profitable and pays back loans etc in a timely fashion. This would be abov ethe original $40 due to associated extra costs. HOwever, let's say this value is $60 (for argument sake). Anything above that value could then be deemed a windfall and distributed to shareholders. The effect of doing this would be to stimulate interest in NZO stock while oil prices remain high while also quickly paying back debt. High oil prices should continue into the medium term at so this should also see the options converted. I see this as being win-win all round with return to shareholders, extra funds flowing in next July, and the Directors will still be able to ask for increased fees again at the next AGM.

Arjay,
Your scheme is quite brilliant.

Please immediately do a sharetrader survey to get support and then email it to NZOG.

If you want me to do it then please advise.

Way to go.

[Balance]

Market up 1.7% and oil at a record high, and look at good old NZO.

Why would you want to buy NZO!

Paddie

Being a NZO shareholder must feel like being dressed in your best gear but not being able to get into the hottest party in town. The champagne is flowing, the beautiful people are dancing and partying, price of oil is going up and share prices are going thru' the roof.

But the NZO shareholder stands in the cold outside looking in and wondering why. The answer is simple but they prefer to wait in the cold.

[the machine]

looking for news re installation of the kupe jacket [successful installation that is]

M

[arjay]

Hi Bermuda - thanks for the vote on my scheme. I'm not familiar with setting up shareholder surveys so if you are able to do it that would be grand.

Shasta - I'm not talking about dividends. My point is that if we are to reinvest in growing the company the sacrifice should be spread equally across the board, meaning that revenue goes into exploration rather than the pockets of shareholders or directors. It's inappropriate for directors to ask for fee increases when they're telling us the money is needed for exploration. TRs pay rise last year would have paid for half a days drilling alone (albeit on land). However, I do think there is room for locking in some shareholder benefit while oil remains at a very high price. Such windfall return can be distributed without taking any momentum out of the Co.'s direction because planning was based on oil prices pitched near half their present value.

[airedale]

Being a NZO shareholder must feel like being dressed in your best gear but not being able to get into the hottest party in town. The champagne is flowing, the beautiful people are dancing and partying, price of oil is going up and share prices are going thru' the roof.

But the NZO shareholder stands in the cold outside looking in and wondering why. The answer is simple but they prefer to wait in the cold.

Yes you are right on, Balance. NZO has been a frustrating experience for the last few years as the POO has surged upwards. My finger has hovered above the "sell" button on a number of occasions.

[dsurf]

Being a NZO shareholder must feel like being dressed in your best gear but not being able to get into the hottest party in town. The champagne is flowing, the beautiful people are dancing and partying, price of oil is going up and share prices are going thru' the roof.

But the NZO shareholder stands in the cold outside looking in and wondering why. The answer is simple but they prefer to wait in the cold.

Emailed AWE today balance - Suggested they buy a company for around 400m (including premium) & they will get approx $130 to $150m revenue THIS YEAR. Asked if they could do it before the money was spent. Thought that if NZO managemment do not understand the need to prevent takeover by having a strong market capitalisation (ie why no buyback) then maybe they should just not be in charge!

Hold NZO NZOOD

[J R Ewing]

I just bailed out of my remaining OD's. I have been waiting to see if the spike in POO would help the price, but it hasn't. For the life of me I can't see investors putting in $200,000,000.00 to convert these next year.

Still holding NZO, but I think that unless something very dramatic happens the options will effectively cap the price of NZO at $1.50 until expiry.

[Balance]

It hurts when the average shareholders is told by management no to any payout as it is too early then turn around and become the CEO in NZ that takes home the biggest pay rise on NZX. Also last year at the AGM we had some benifits and again this year.This take as much as you shareholders will give me is starting to become a bad habit and from the feedback i am getting it explains some why the SP stays at a dollar when Tapis has just hit 100. Such a thing would have been unthinkable just a few years ago---but so would all the staff and personal benifits been unthinkable.
You mentioned Warren Buffett. Warren takes great pride in getting a small CEO income and has no personal benifits that are not available to all shareholders. That fact as i have read several times explains the great respect the investing Public has in him.

Why shouldn't NZO's CEO and directors have big pay rises and lots of benefits? Surely they derserve the increases?

By the reckoning of NZOers on this site, NZO and TR have delivered in spades, haven't they?

The words gush out like water from the Huka Falls from NZOers - 3 world class projects in PRC, Tui and Kupe. Lots of cash around the corner. Good on them for sticking to their guns and hanging on to these world class assets etc.

The sp has not done much but is that really their fault? Maybe they recognise that the sp as is today already reflects the full value of NZO. Ever think about that?

[Mingeathinaikos]

I just bailed out of my remaining OD's. I have been waiting to see if the spike in POO would help the price, but it hasn't. For the life of me I can't see investors putting in $200,000,000.00 to convert these next year.

Still holding NZO, but I think that unless something very dramatic happens the options will effectively cap the price of NZO at $1.50 until expiry.

How are the one's that picked up NZOOD above 25c feeling?? Hope you weren't one of them J R! :)

[dsurf]

How are the one's that picked up NZOOD above 25c feeling?? Hope you weren't one of them J R! :)

You should be trying to make money instead of hoping other people are losing money. Maybe the people who bought for 25c sold for 30c? Or do you know some of them?

[winner69]

Don't the ODs lose about 10% a month anyway as the time value component disappears?

Even more reason why NZO come clean and clearly state their intentions ..... instead as MacDunk says leaving the punters playing pass the parcel

[boysy]

it certainly looks as though unless something dramatic happens people still holdings ods will be left out in the rain. 2.4 million sellers against 400k buyers though for people still holding hope they do get in the money.

[duncan macgregor]

You should be trying to make money instead of hoping other people are losing money. Maybe the people who bought for 25c sold for 30c? Or do you know some of them? Its a sad fact of life that if you want to better the average, it comes at the expence of someone else. Its like being in the army, it dousnt matter as long as you dont see there faces. I feel sorry for the gullible for being so stupid. The 30c was one i missed, i sold at 9c at the start and was told that it was me that was stupid. I valued the options at 5c then simply because the sp wont rise much higher than the conversion price. More shares makes it worth less was my reasoning regardless of what happened, other than a major new strike. Its pass the parcel time with the options worth nothing when the music stops. The best that can happen now is the sp to reach conversion level, or 5c above just to make it worthwhile converting. I think that even the most optimistic blue eyed punter knows deep down, that is very unlikely. Macdunk

[Mingeathinaikos]

You should be trying to make money instead of hoping other people are losing money. Maybe the people who bought for 25c sold for 30c? Or do you know some of them?

dsurf, i don't hope people are losing money, but it is a fact that if s share was trading at 30c and is now at 9c someone has lost money.

I am a NZO holder and will continue to be. I exited the ODs last week (at a small loss) because as i said then, while i personally think that NZO is undervalued, i don't think the market will revalue it above $1.50 prior to June '08 expiry....therefore options will trend to 0.

I will be buying more heads in this company, I just think the ODs are gone..... and am struggling to understand why you would purchase them now.... big risk.

[Dr_Who]

Interesting how PRC is trending up and NZO is down. I have a funny feeling someone is manipulating the NZO head shares. Just an assumption.

[bermuda]

Its a sad fact of life that if you want to better the average, it comes at the expence of someone else. Its like being in the army, it dousnt matter as long as you dont see there faces. I feel sorry for the gullible for being so stupid. The 30c was one i missed, i sold at 9c at the start and was told that it was me that was stupid. I valued the options at 5c then simply because the sp wont rise much higher than the conversion price. More shares makes it worth less was my reasoning regardless of what happened, other than a major new strike. Its pass the parcel time with the options worth nothing when the music stops. The best that can happen now is the sp to reach conversion level, or 5c above just to make it worthwhile converting. I think that even the most optimistic blue eyed punter knows deep down, that is very unlikely. Macdunk


Macdunk
I find it hard to believe that a seasoned trader/analyst such as yourself could possibly sell out at 9 cents before Hector was drilled. To even a casual punter it was money for jam.i.e. 30 odd cents.

OK I was an optimist and held through both Hector and Taranui but then I was out of the oppies.They could still do it but would need a good strike at Kupe, another Tui upgrade and oil to stay at $90 plus ( which I think it will ). I doubt whether an aquisition would change things.

You missed out on a real bonanza which is unlike you.

[duncan macgregor]

Macdunk
I find it hard to believe that a seasoned trader/analyst such as yourself could possibly sell out at 9 cents before Hector was drilled. To even a casual punter it was money for jam.i.e. 30 odd cents.

OK I was an optimist and held through both Hector and Taranui but then I was out of the oppies.They could still do it but would need a good strike at Kupe, another Tui upgrade and oil to stay at $90 plus ( which I think it will ). I doubt whether an aquisition would change things.

You missed out on a real bonanza which is unlike you. You are quite right BERMUDA i did miss out on a real bonanza in hindesight. However if you read back on what i did you will find i bought PPP at 11c sold at 21c. I then more than doubled that on MCR plus an 8% exchange gain. I wanted my money in Australia in dec it was the right thing to do and still is. The ASX miners is my play field, holding and hoping days are well gone. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

beware the lost opportunity. if i can buy nzoods at 5 or 6 cps within the next 4 weeks i will. At the same time i will spread my risk by buying the same amount of nzo. eg. 50k od's and 50k of heads.

yes many peope looking to bail while they can. i cannot complain as i have sold 3 lots of ods this year. 10.5...18.0.. and 30.5... (what a spread). it is possible that the ones i sold for 30.5 are the same ones that macdunk sold for 9 cps. I just hope it was him that bought them off me.

I dont expect the ods to go lower than 5 cps this year unless nzo goes below $1.00. There is still too much of an opportunity over the next few months imo.

[Bilo]

Macdunk
I doubt whether an aquisition would change things.


I think an acquisition by NZO in the next six months would stuff it completely. Someone nibbling at NZO would be a different matter.

[digger]

I think an acquisition by NZO in the next six months would stuff it completely. Someone nibbling at NZO would be a different matter.
An acquisition is usuall tied to a further placement. The two would set NZo back. Every time there is a placement the SP tracks the placement value some months before hand and for about a year afterwards. Inst seem to be able to smell a placement coming and withdraw from purchase and might in fact even sell into the market to help lower the placement figure. There is no acquisition that will be good enought to repair the damage of another placement. In fact the SP has been heading down and or sideways since the possibility has been mentioned.The only upward thing lately is the value of the oil we are selling.

[J R Ewing]

How are the one's that picked up NZOOD above 25c feeling?? Hope you weren't one of them J R! :)

Most of these I picked up between 10-12c and held for quite a while. Sold a few prior to hector but not enough to make a significant profit. Mind you, I would have felt just as sick selling them all at 30c and then having Hector come in.

[boysy]

NZO up against the market today that must be a good sign seeing as the rest of the market took a hammering.

[duncan macgregor]

regardless of your views about NZO or NZOOD something must surely have sunk in to the investor that has an open mind. NZOOD went to over 30c, the heads went to over $1-30 twice, then dropped back on two different occasions. Surely with that in mind you looked at your investing strategy. Options might have been bought all the way up with a running stop loss. Heads might have been bought all the way up with a running stop loss. Its not if the company is good or bad it reverts back to is your system good or bad with the companies that you invest in. I would suggest to investors caught out with the hype and downtrend to look at their methods then learn from past mistakes. NZO cant go above $1-50 by more than a few cents at best on conversion date. At worst they will stay about a dollar. That is what is likely to happen. At best NZO sp will be about $1-55 and at worst where it is today in july of next year, unless they find something new. That is what i read in the market, if you dont take your profits when the market dictates, then you end up playing pass the parcel with the other losers. Macdunk
DiscL sold options at the start at 9c

[shasta]

regardless of your views about NZO or NZOOD something must surely have sunk in to the investor that has an open mind. NZOOD went to over 30c, the heads went to over $1-30 twice, then dropped back on two different occasions. Surely with that in mind you looked at your investing strategy. Options might have been bought all the way up with a running stop loss. Heads might have been bought all the way up with a running stop loss. Its not if the company is good or bad it reverts back to is your system good or bad with the companies that you invest in. I would suggest to investors caught out with the hype and downtrend to look at their methods then learn from past mistakes. NZO cant go above $1-50 by more than a few cents at best on conversion date. At worst they will stay about a dollar. That is what is likely to happen. At best NZO sp will be about $1-55 and at worst where it is today in july of next year, unless they find something new. That is what i read in the market, if you dont take your profits when the market dictates, then you end up playing pass the parcel with the other losers. Macdunk
DiscL sold options at the start at 9c

Macdunk

What interests me about NZO is the irrational investors saw fit to run the SP hard to $1.30 BEFORE it was producing.

It has sinced slumped back around the $1 - 1.05 mark when it is producing & accruing a rather nice $5m a week in revenue!

To use a mining company as an example, GDM has been range bound for months & has the most ridiculous EV, that i've calculated on the ASX!

It still seemingly gets cheaper & cheaper as the SP drops, & like NZO someone will eventually cotton on & take it out at a value "perceived" to be far too cheap.

I believe NZO should be trading around $1.25 - $1.30 at present, & cannot explain the difference, other than the "historical baggage" it carries...

PPP are in the same boat, far too cheap & something has to give...

[Balance]

Why shouldn't NZO's CEO and directors have big pay rises and lots of benefits? Surely they derserve the increases?

By the reckoning of NZOers on this site, NZO and TR have delivered in spades, haven't they?

The words gush out like water from the Huka Falls from NZOers - 3 world class projects in PRC, Tui and Kupe. Lots of cash around the corner. Good on them for sticking to their guns and hanging on to these world class assets etc.

The sp has not done much but is that really their fault? Maybe they recognise that the sp as is today already reflects the full value of NZO. Ever think about that?

Again, NZOers keep talking about NZO being undervalued.

But is it undervalued?

Case of beauty being in the eye of the beholders but not in the eye of the rest of the market and directors?

[shasta]

Again, NZOers keep talking about NZO being undervalued.

But is it undervalued?

Case of beauty being in the eye of the beholders but not in the eye of the rest of the market and directors?

True, you have picked a winning argument because at the moment the market agrees with you.

Tell me this, was NZO worth $1.30 prior to receiving any cashflow/revenue as a producer, probably not back then?

And now that it is producing, why is the market devaluing NZO for being a producer?

Sometimes the markets remain irrational, & creates buying opportunities.

Hard to disagree with $5m revenue coming in each & every week...

[macduffy]

If its any consolation, AWE is trading at 21% below its high for the year - and its got 42.5% of Tui plus other producing fields.

Disc: Hold AWE but not NZO.

[duncan macgregor]

True, you have picked a winning argument because at the moment the market agrees with you.

Tell me this, was NZO worth $1.30 prior to receiving any cashflow/revenue as a producer, probably not back then?

And now that it is producing, why is the market devaluing NZO for being a producer?

Sometimes the markets remain irrational, & creates buying opportunities.

Hard to disagree with $5m revenue coming in each & every week... SHASTA, The market never gers it wrong, it dictates the price. The investor gets it wrong when they seem to think its the market wrong, and they are right. The market is always right, the point being study the market not your own little perception of right and wrong, then beat the market to getting it right next time. Argue with the market and average down in your own little i am right you are wrong at your peril. Macdunk

[Unicorn]

regardless of your views about NZO or NZOOD something must surely have sunk in to the investor that has an open mind. NZOOD went to over 30c, the heads went to over $1-30 twice, then dropped back on two different occasions. Surely with that in mind you looked at your investing strategy. Options might have been bought all the way up with a running stop loss. Heads might have been bought all the way up with a running stop loss. Its not if the company is good or bad it reverts back to is your system good or bad with the companies that you invest in. I would suggest to investors caught out with the hype and downtrend to look at their methods then learn from past mistakes. Macdunk
DiscL sold options at the start at 9c

I don't agree on using a stop loss with NZO in those circumstances. Those price movements are not down to normal market forces, but have been event driven. The drops in share price result from unsuccessful drills, and are immediate - by the time the stop loss triggers it is usually too late to take action (unless you are very close to the market).

The simple way to make money from NZO, and this has worked every time in the past, is to buy 6-8 weeks prior to a drill and sell shortly after spudding (and definitely before target depth is reached). My observation is that the market assigns minimal value to exploration assets until a couple of months prior to a drill, and then it quickly changes the share price to reflect the risked value of that drill. Of course if you sell and then the drill is successful you will not make as much as those who held their shares (and took the risk). But by selling when interest in the drill nears it's peak you are almost guaranteed a good profit. When a drill fails, the share price invariably returns to somewhere near where it was before the drilling interest began.

So in these circumstances a stop loss is not appropriate - rather it is matter of making a deliberate choice between taking a profit or risking that profit against a potential somewhat larger profit.

I have held my NZO shares through the last four (unsuccessful) drills, but sold my PPP holdings as per plan. With hindsight of course I would have done it differently, but given what I knew at the time I was happy to take the risk. No regrets, I knew the odds and took them on.

[Unicorn]

SHASTA, The market never gers it wrong, it dictates the price.

If the market never gets it wrong, why do share prices suddenly move by large amounts? Look at recent graphs of AIA, SKC, and WHS - some major adjustments as the market changed it's perception (it can't have been right before and after, for the prices to move so much so quickly).

The value of NZO has increased significantly over the last year or two. The market has not recognised that. The market may never recognise that, or then again it might - I pick that it will.

[Nitaa]

I agree with your post Unicorn. The other thing i have noticed is that there is not quite the same gains as there used to be leading up to the drill.

AWE looks so solid as an investment. with a market cap of around $AU1.3b it looks the best value of all the Tui JV's. What is stopping NZO in my view is the uncertainty of PRC. clearly PRC needs more capex and that will come out in the wash over the next 6 to 12 months. As Bermuda nd others have pointed out, the revenue stream long term looks great. So the day traders will come a nd go just like they have in the past but the faithful should do ok imo.

Even by the oracle DM, he thinks NZO wont really go above $1.50 in the next 8 months but shouldnt go below $1.00 give or take. That makes a heads buy a good bet medium term.

The other thing that could be upsetting the apple cart is the possibility of an aquisition. To me the horse has bolted for most similar companies to purchase at a fair price, especially with oil prices so high. Hopefully they concentrate on oil exploration around Taranaki, Kupe and even possibly flog off PRC.

[Unicorn]

I agree with your post Unicorn. The other thing i have noticed is that there is not quite the same gains as there used to be leading up to the drill.

Two good reasons for the lesser gains now compared to earlier drills ...

1. NZO capitalisation is much larger, so any new discovery will represent a proportionately smaller increment in company value.

2. PPP gave better leverage to recent drills, so much of the speculative investment would have gone there.

[duncan macgregor]

If the market never gets it wrong, why do share prices suddenly move by large amounts? Look at recent graphs of AIA, SKC, and WHS - some major adjustments as the market changed it's perception (it can't have been right before and after, for the prices to move so much so quickly).

The value of NZO has increased significantly over the last year or two. The market has not recognised that. The market may never recognise that, or then again it might - I pick that it will. Its the market that dictates the price, dictators are never wrong, if you know whats good for you. The idea is to think in advance of the market movement, therefore the company fundamental considerations come after the market consideration. NZO is a perfect example, fundamentely its sp is worth 40c north of what it is at the moment, which means nothing at all. In the real world its the perception of the company in the market place, nothing more nothing less. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Unicorn. Without trying to pee in your pocket and give you the warm fuzzies, I want to thank you for your informative posts. You have pretty much called it as it is, pro or against. Keep up the posts and novices such as myself can keep on learning.

One thing that stands out from many posters (not just on sharetrader) is their insistance on trying to justify their position (that includes me). For that, you along with plenty of others have helped me open my eyes and look at things from a different perspective.

[Mike.Gayner]

I dont often agree with McD, but I'm with him on this one. How can you say the market is wrong? That's like meteorologist saying the weather got it wrong. Rather, he should be working to predict the weather and stay on top of it, helping people plan their next move. The market cannot be wrong - but we can be.

[Nitaa]

Its a common catch phrase.."the market is always right". since its us (the investors, traders etc) that effectively control the market then we must also be right all the time. In the end it doesnt really matter if its right or wrong. what it is is what it is. What the market does do is tell is what the we (all potential investors) think the current fair value of a stock is.

[upside_umop]

The market is right on the assumption that every investor has access to the same information. That way, the market can make a decision as a whole which dictates the shareprice - which does infact leave the market right.

The reason that shareprices change, and fluctuate from day to day in real life is based on information released, seeked and general economic conditions.

For example, AIA did jump so many % higher than the previous close, but this was based on the assumption that the Canadian Pension Plan were to rebid for the company, information not know to the market the day before - or was it, but only to a specialised few?

Another would be in this case NZO, as everybody knows, it dropped substantially after Hector, which the market decided and effectively repriced the share. It didnt fall to the lowest price straight away, as there were some investors who valued the company more at a certain point, but the market as a whole did dictate in the end which price the share should be and will continue to do so.

There is a few theories out there as to what the efficency of the market is. If anybody is interested, check out the following wikipedia write up which will help explain 'The Efficent Markets Hypothesis.' It explains the three hypothesis of weak-form, semi-strong form and strong-form hypothesis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis

Its interesting, but we know that markets are not totally efficent as the likes of Phaedrus can still pick winning stocks through TA - against the theory EMH.

Now, I really should get back to some study...

[winner69]

The market is right on the assumption that every investor has access to the same information. That way, the market can make a decision as a whole which dictates the shareprice - which does infact leave the market right.

The reason that shareprices change, and fluctuate from day to day in real life is based on information released, seeked and general economic conditions.
...

Upsidedown .... I would contend that sentiment is one of the real drivers of how the market makes a makes a decision to 'dictate' the shareprice of a stock

[upside_umop]

Your right, its ONE (i dont know how to do bold :S) of the market drivers...market sentiment means optimism or pessimism in markets which in essence comes from information released, seeked and general economic condions.

[Mike.Gayner]

The market is right on the assumption that every investor has access to the same information. That way, the market can make a decision as a whole which dictates the shareprice - which does infact leave the market right.

That's not strictly true - markets can be perfectly efficient without all investors having access to the same information. It's only important that their (investors') aggregate knowledge is complete. Not every investor needs to know every detail for a market to remain perfectly efficient, nor do we all need to be privy to the same information.

[winner69]

Your right, its ONE (i dont know how to do bold :S) of the market drivers...market sentiment means optimism or pessimism in markets which in essence comes from information released, seeked and general economic condions.

... but more so relating to specific stocks .... not to the market or sector as a whole ..... ie think oil/resource stocks in general and NZO specifically

To bold and do other things look in FAQ .... to bold [/b] at the end of the portion you want to bold and [b] at the start ........... had to put it that way around otherwise it would have ended up bolded and you would not have seen the [b] thingies

[winner69]

is this how efficient markets work ..... millions if not billions for those who more efficient than most .... yes?

Curious times as a few Rio shareholders get the cream


http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/curious-times-as-a-few-rio-shareholders-get-the-cream/2007/11/09/1194329513932.html

[upside_umop]

That's not strictly true - markets can be perfectly efficient without all investors having access to the same information. It's only important that their (investors') aggregate knowledge is complete. Not every investor needs to know every detail for a market to remain perfectly efficient, nor do we all need to be privy to the same information.

Market efficency is a totally new ball game...I dont think there is a market which is perfectly efficent in this world, as investors do have access to different information which will always leave it unbalanced and biased towards the side with privilaged information.

What im saying is, on a whole, the market (ie every single little investor big and small), makes it decision based on the information it has at the time - which makes it right at that time. It may be wrong on that decision tommorow as new information will emerge.

[Unicorn]

Upsidedown .... I would contend that sentiment is one of the real drivers of how the market makes a makes a decision to 'dictate' the shareprice of a stock

I agree. In the absence of major events, sentiment plays a major role. There are no major events expected for NZO in the near future (acquisition is a possibility but when or on what scale is unknown) so sentiment is largely driving share price. And sentiment is obviously very bad, and for good reason.

NZO has firmly established itself a recent history of being a loser. The share price now is well below where it was 3 years ago, while the NZX50 has moved ahead strongly. And this in spite of the price of oil, gas and coking coal being far stronger than most people expected. There have been four exploration holes drilled, but that has returned a zero success rate. Management have made a complete mess of the Pike project ("expected to cost $70M plus $14M working capital", "construction of access and development of the mine expected to take 12 months").

The strategy to expand the company seems bizarre. They have generated no return for their shareholders from very favourable markets for their products, so we can expect that if those markets turn then there will be a substantial loss - expanding the company into that scenario is plain stupid. Their first objective should be to turn sentiment around and generate some return to shareholders - going to an AGM with all the resolutions aimed at improving the lot of management and nothing for the shareholders is not the way to do that.

[boysy]

Though unicorn this is a growth oriented company clearly but is it in shareholders best interests to take profits now from a company that is still expanding. I mean clearly NZO is not a dividend play i certainly think it shouldnt be currently as it has alot on its plate to complete projects already underway once completed they should add some stimulus to the SP. I would suspect that dividends will not be paid for a few years im sure shareholders will be fine with this as long as some appreciation is shareprice happens. But i belive the major thing holding back the SP is its past experiences the market in its infinate wisdom will clearly see someday that the chip on NZO shoulder is clearly not warrented and for my sake i hope thats soon.

[steve fleming]

The amount of time, analysis and energy gone into analysing and debating this stock by people here over the last few years has been just absolutely unbelievable. It honestly absolutely staggers me.

If only some here had focused a fraction of this time and energy analysing a half decent ASX miner/oiler over this period, they'd more than likely be very happy chappys sitting on multi-bagger returns....

[777]

World Story
RSS
Huge oil find in Brazil
7:15AM Saturday November 10, 2007

A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil's petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 per cent and boost it into the ranks of the world's major exporters, officials say.

[sideline]

World Story
RSS
Huge oil find in Brazil
7:15AM Saturday November 10, 2007

A huge offshore oil discovery could raise Brazil's petroleum reserves by a whopping 40 per cent and boost it into the ranks of the world's major exporters, officials say.

At up to 8b barrels it could keep the world going for an extra 100 days.........

[whiteheron]

The amount of time, analysis and energy gone into analysing and debating this stock by people here over the last few years has been just absolutely unbelievable. It honestly absolutely staggers me.

If only some here had focused a fraction of this time and energy analysing a half decent ASX miner/oiler over this period, they'd more than likely be very happy chappys sitting on multi-bagger returns....

You are absolutely right Steve

Never has so much been wtitten about so little by so many
(Apologies to Winston Churchill)

There are so many really good companies in Aussie that have produced multi bagger returns in the last several years

[Balance]

You are absolutely right Steve

Never has so much been wtitten about so little by so many
(Apologies to Winston Churchill)

There are so many really good companies in Aussie that have produced multi bagger returns in the last several years

That's not fair to the NZOers. They believed some of the (now ficticious) valuations posted on this site that NZO was worth $2.75 per share. Pike alone was worth at least $1.00.

So they have hung on and hung on. Top prize for patience and fortitude.

But topmost prize for gullibility? Where are the prophets who promised them riches aplenty?

[Nitaa]

again i have to agree with unicorns last post. What does seem bizarre is NZO looking for aquisition before it has even consolidated its own position. My only via aquisition/merger or otherwise would have been PPP. However this opportunity or option pretty much went out the door back in June.

By having their finger in so many pies they can loose focus on their core projects. What is that saying? if you try to chase 2 rabbits, both will get away" NZO imo needs to finish off their foundations before diversifying. That means both Pike and Kupe need to be producing and not sooner.

[Mick100]

Do I detect an all time low in sentiment among, both holders, and the increasing number od non-holders, chiming in with a few words of wisdom.

All time lows in sentiment often turn out to be the point where there is a change in price trend - I wonder if this theory holds this time.;)


I agree with you nita - they (NZO managment) should learn to walk before trying to run
.

[winner69]

Do I detect an all time low in sentiment among, both holders, and the increasing number od non-holders, chiming in with a few words of wisdom.

All time lows in sentiment often turn out to be the point where there is a change in price trend - I wonder if this theory holds this time.;)


I agree with you nita - they (NZO managment) should learn to walk before trying to run
.

All too true Mick .... one of the well tested signs of a change in trend

Bad sentiment seems to have driven most off NZO ... even the likes of Viking sounds pretty depressed .... Boysy and Bermuda still bullish

Maybe now is the time to capture some of the 'intrinsic value' in NZO

[winner69]

They will be talking positive about this stock down The Brewery bar tonite though .... all will be forgiven when they share their frustrations

[shasta]

They will be talking positive about this stock down The Brewery bar tonite though .... all will be forgiven when they share their frustrations

Winner - quite the contrary, Lakeys & i were discussing an "exit" from NZO & where the funds would go too!

It seems we have both held NZO too long & a small profit is still a profit :eek:

[bermuda]

Because NZ have a Tall Poppy Syndrome and because NZ dont have a dedicated Energy Reporter the only way for NZO to prove themselves is through financials that are currently being enriched at prices far in excess of those forecast and budgetted.

This is a very good time to buy. Reminds me of the inverse many many years ago when Robt Jones wrote to his shareholders at the very top of the cycle imploring them to keep buying.

Oil prices aint going down.Even the IEA and the Majors are now admitting it.

[duncan macgregor]

BERMUDA, Oil prices have nothing to do with anything. The ammount of money coming into the NZO coffers has nothing to do with anything either. Be realistic the only thing that matters is how high the share price goes, or what dividends come your way. NZO might spend the lot on a few dry holes in the ground with nothing coming your way other than the frustration of missed opportunity elsewhere. NZO wont tell you anything at all about future intentions using your money to swill at the trough and laugh at your frustration.
The share price cant get any higher than the option conversion rate for starters in the short term, thats if everything goes to plan. The simple fact is if the options get converted all that means is more fingers in the pie with less to go around. They are in a very expensive business, the profits wont last to long without further drilling success. Macdunk

[bermuda]

Duncan,
The point I am trying to get across is that sentiment does play a big factor, particularly in the case of NZO.

Sentiment will eventually give way to financial results.

NZO is now on track for LONGTERM revenues in excess of $100million per annum ( and given the current price of oil it will be a lot more )

As regards the shareprice I have seen many many oilers stagnate at very big discounts until the Financials came through....and these arent far off.

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan,
The point I am trying to get across is that sentiment does play a big factor, particularly in the case of NZO.

Sentiment will eventually give way to financial results.

NZO is now on track for LONGTERM revenues in excess of $100million per annum ( and given the current price of oil it will be a lot more )

As regards the shareprice I have seen many many oilers stagnate at very big discounts until the Financials came through....and these arent far off. BERMUDA, You are quite right to expect what you do under normal cicumstances. NZO are in a better position today than they have ever been. However The nature of the business is high risk going forward, they simply cant stand still paying up to the shareholders. They must drill new prospects going forward that comes at a huge cost. They wont disclose future intentions to the share holders in advance of the next perceived events which leaves the shareholders completely in the dark.
What counts is shareholders returns either by share price, or dividends paid. PRC is not a good long term hold for NZO, they should sell it and move on. Look at it this way, NZO only gets dividends exactly the same as tom dick and harry over a period of lets say 30 years then what?. If it lasts thirty years it loses one thirtieth in value each year unless they find more. I would think that now that they are in the money with you lot filling the swill trough, they will play it for what its worth. Macdunk

[bermuda]

Duncan,
Normally I would agree with you but I cant this time because NZO will pay out dividends. They, unlike so many other oilers, have paid out divvies before and that's when they were only fledglings.

Not only that , but over the last 6 months or so, David Salisbury has mentioned the company WANTING to pay dividends.

Plus there is going to be one hell of a lot of cash around!..(.especially at these prices which I believe will stay.)

Arjay made a very good point about returning money over and above Normal budget expectations which makes good sense but I have to agree that NZO wouldnt go along with it so I wont take any action.
Cheers

Hey, totally agree about Pike. Get the thing up and going at almost peak performance and then Sell it. Could be a nice little earner.

[Balance]

Bermuda,

Dividends NZO will pay - say 3 cps.

The rest of any cash generated will go into future Hector's and Taranui's.

So keep holding for that dividend.

[digger]

Arjay made a very good point about returning money over and above Normal budget expectations which makes good sense but I have to agree that NZO wouldnt go along with it so I wont take any action.
Cheers
End bermuda quote

Paying dividends of any kind before imputation credits are attached is in fact accepting double tax. NZO and its shareholders should wait . The problem is that the waiting should have applied to all. I voted for the last ESOP shares to directors as basically it is a good idea to get there interest charged and somewhat expected in this industry. Nevertheless it was yet again a PR failure on the part of NZO.The idea was good the timing was so wrong you would have to think it was deliberet to rub our noses in it.
Later on bermuda after some cooling down time and certainly several months before the next AGM we should have our own shareholder meeting to get together what we want.
My vote for any director or TR perks will in the future be assesed very carefully with respect to how this benefits the shareholder,and can no longer be taken for granted.

[bermuda]

Bermuda,

Dividends NZO will pay - say 3 cps.

The rest of any cash generated will go into future Hector's and Taranui's.

So keep holding for that dividend.

Yeah, go along with that. Enough to keep their major shareholder happy...especially when he steps down from everything.

At the bottom of it all though, it has been a very good innings from Radford. 26 years and his vision of being a top earner for both himself and NZ has been acheived. A remarkable effort by a determined and thoughtful man.



Hate to say it but after looking at the BOSS supplement in the Sydney Herald which was about Salaries/Perks ( e.g. Brambles CEO on $US6.2 million ) and then when you compare what Tr's lot is then you will realise he is actually on a pittance. ( Hopefully he wont read this )

Good luck to him. He has put the Hard Yards in and is now ready to exit from a company about to produce millions in earnings for NZ and give him a damm good retirement income.

[the machine]

does anyone know if kupe has and hedging for the liquids.

noting that nzo share of liquids production is well under 500,000 barrels pa it is easy to imagine that insufficient production in short enough time to do so.

this is where having the same banker - wespac, may be an advantage - in that tui has a higher hedge requirement than what may be expected, offseting kupe with a nil liquids hedge.

gas production of course largly contracted to genises.

M

[Mr Tommy]

Story in the paper today about Brazils major new oil discovery called TUPI, holds an estimated 8 billion barrels. But it is in 2km of water, and then over 5000m down.

Image what a discovery like this off NZ would do.

[winner69]

Do I detect an all time low in sentiment among, both holders, and the increasing number od non-holders, chiming in with a few words of wisdom.

All time lows in sentiment often turn out to be the point where there is a change in price trend - I wonder if this theory holds this time.;)



.

Mick .... posts since this one of yours the other night show some more have given up on NZO and have given up on them or contemplated doing so.

Great piece of wisdom that of yours

Maybe now is the time for a new set of shreholders to benefit from the heaps of 'intrinisc value' in NZO

Always think of that little diagram that demonstrates the traits of a successful investor .... buys in before the bottom is reached and sells out before the top is reached .... or somethign like that

[JBmurc]

Mick .... posts since this one of yours the other night show some more have given up on NZO and have given up on them or contemplated doing so.

Great piece of wisdom that of yours

Maybe now is the time for a new set of shreholders to benefit from the heaps of 'intrinisc value' in NZO

Always think of that little diagram that demonstrates the traits of a successful investor .... buys in before the bottom is reached and sells out before the top is reached .... or somethign like that

-I will be one as of the next couple days my first purchase on the NZX for over 3yrs now absolute bargin at these levels

[Mick100]

Mick .... posts since this one of yours the other night show some more have given up on NZO and have given up on them or contemplated doing so.

Great piece of wisdom that of yours

Maybe now is the time for a new set of shreholders to benefit from the heaps of 'intrinisc value' in NZO

Always think of that little diagram that demonstrates the traits of a successful investor .... buys in before the bottom is reached and sells out before the top is reached .... or somethign like that

Yeah winner, I'm tempted to have another nibble at NZO myself
.

[arjay]

NZO is a bargain at $1 only if it produces a good return for the purchaser of that share. As NZO does not as yet return anything to the shareholder it remains to be seen as to what the bargain price will be. As someone pointed out earlier, even if NZO has a zillion bucks coming in, the shareholder sees nothing while all that money goes into further company building and directors pockets. Let's see some crystalized benefit to the shareholder, then we'll see the SP head north.

[boysy]

I think its obvious to most people that the company will not offer dividends for some years to come this being said their are otherways of getting the SP up such as some sort of sharebuyback scheme. For the options to be in the money in 7ish months time it would probably take a good quarterly cashflow pike producing coal and a sharebuy back. Alot will depend on coal oil and gas prices in the months ahead it sure is going to be interesting.

[JBmurc]

NZO is a bargain at $1 only if it produces a good return for the purchaser of that share. As NZO does not as yet return anything to the shareholder it remains to be seen as to what the bargain price will be. As someone pointed out earlier, even if NZO has a zillion bucks coming in, the shareholder sees nothing while all that money goes into further company building and directors pockets. Let's see some crystalized benefit to the shareholder, then we'll see the SP head north.

If you want a company to yeild divies buy a retail stock .. etc personal I don't know of any emerging Oil energy company's that do or are planning on pay divies ,more likely once their more advanced in the developments they may do a share-buy back-like what boysy was saying.
IMHO futher Oil Gas Coal developments is were the extra funds should go or maybe some JV's with others in there sector and if there got zillions of $$$$$$$$$$ in cashflow I can promise you there SP will increase -

---Increasing -Reserves+Cashflows+further drilling & developing =Increasing SP & Mrktcap


-As I've said before if you don't want you NZO's I'll buy them for $1

[arjay]

Jbmurc,
I'm not so worried about dividends - I'm just suggesting why the SP is languishing and why the ODs won't get exercised. Nevertheless, as I have said, it sticks in my craw that the NZO exec are telling us to wait while they fill their pockets. Plenty of oilers pay dividends - Southern Petroleum was one, and our own NZO was another when they were producing from Ngatoro. Now they're producing from Tui... let's hope Greymouth doesn't buy them out.

[Balance]

-As I've said before if you don't want you NZO's I'll buy them for $1

Brave talk. I think you will get them at $1.00 tomorrow. Let's see how many get bought at $1.00?

NZO pumping money into more explorations makes little sense as its track record in drilling and exploration is poor. The three projects underway have been around a long long time and have become economical due to higher energy and coking coal prices. Take away the higher prices (still a possibility) and they go back into non-production.

[boysy]

Have you had a look at figures balance TUI was given the go ahead based on oil at $40 the case is similar with coal and gas prices.

[JBmurc]

Brave talk. I think you will get them at $1.00 tomorrow. Let's see how many get bought at $1.00?

NZO pumping money into more explorations makes little sense as its track record in drilling and exploration is poor. The three projects underway have been around a long long time and have become economical due to higher energy and coking coal prices. Take away the higher prices (still a possibility) and they go back into non-production.

--I hope so 75,000 will do for now

[winner69]

Have you had a look at figures balance TUI was given the go ahead based on oil at $40 the case is similar with coal and gas prices.

Balance would say you are correct .... and that the market knows that .... and factored the additional profitability in to their calculations .... and come in at just over a $1

Maybe the converse to what you are saying is if oil wasn't $90 going on $100 then NZO might be considerably less than a $1

[boysy]

what sort of discount rate are we using to get the dollar figure then ?

[arjay]

I think it was Digger that earlier said it doesn't make sense giving out dividends now because in effec tthey'd be double-taxed. From an economic point that makes sense, however if NZO says to me, "hey, here's a pot of your money, we can either put the lot (less a little something for the directors Xmas stocking) into the slot machine of exploration at odds of 1:5, or we can use half of it for that purpose, double tax the rest and give you what's left"..... I think I'd take the $ even if it is double taxed.

[Hoop]

Oil price rising slowly in US$, NZ$ has dropped..... NZO price fell 1%, about the average fall of the NZSX for the day.

Another (many) example that NZO shareprice is running on emotion rather than fundamentals.

[bermuda]

Because NZ have a Tall Poppy Syndrome and because NZ dont have a dedicated Energy Reporter the only way for NZO to prove themselves is through financials that are currently being enriched at prices far in excess of those forecast and budgetted.

This is a very good time to buy. Reminds me of the inverse many many years ago when Robt Jones wrote to his shareholders at the very top of the cycle imploring them to keep buying.

Oil prices aint going down.Even the IEA and the Majors are now admitting it.

Sometimes I have to keep repeating myself.

[upside_umop]

Arjay, you have to look at the long run perspective of drilling. It is very attractive on expected returns but is definately risky on stand alone basis. But the more drills done, the amount of risk deviated from the expected return decreases.
You also have to ask yourself how they got to where they are now. They took the risk at Kupe and struck. They have taken risks at Hector, Taranui, but not. Its all risk and return, and in the long run it is in our, the shareholders interests.

Bermuda, what do you think oil will top out at?
Also, were you still so bullish when it dropped below $55 this year before bouncing back? Is there scope for this to happen again?

[bermuda]

Anything can happen in this game but if you want my opinion the USA is stuffed, the $US dollar is struffed, and oil is going higher.

[clips]

"For the options to be in the money in 7ish months time it would probably take a good quarterly cashflow pike producing coal and a sharebuy back. "

- two of those are very possibile, and maybe three......


"A lot will depend on coal oil and gas prices in the months ahead it sure is going to be interesting."

- well they look unlikely to be going down.....

[dsurf]

"For the options to be in the money in 7ish months time it would probably take a good quarterly cashflow pike producing coal and a sharebuy back. "

- two of those are very possibile, and maybe three......


"A lot will depend on coal oil and gas prices in the months ahead it sure is going to be interesting."

- well they look unlikely to be going down.....


1/ A good quarterly cashflow is a given isn't it? This thread has worked it out so many times before.

2/ Pike - The tunnell will be finished and Pike will be reporting production - From an accounting perspective will be interesting to see when in the transport chain revenue gets booked.

3/ Buyback - A sensible option - we will have to wait and see - Could be announced for the next year at any time - would be best after the next qaurterly for the year ahead and large - not only for the shareholders but also so the company doesn't get taken over.

4/ Kupe not mentioned - will get increasing press especially if looming gas shortages are predicted

5/ Takeover? This is a real possibility - NZO is getting substantially de-risked & has a strong revenue profile looking forward

Of course there are a number of things that could make things worse but look at the current position before being drawn into overall market gloom.

[duncan macgregor]

Anything can happen in this game but if you want my opinion the USA is stuffed, the $US dollar is struffed, and oil is going higher. The real price of the commodoties you mention is measured in american dollars which as you say is stuffed. the price is not going up as much as you seem to think if you take that into consideration. The only thing that is not stuffed is the chinese economy in whose money the prices will be worked out against in the future. America is on a big downtrend even although they havent worked it out as yet. The NZ economy is being stuffed my investments are all on the ASX. Macdunk

[bermuda]

The real price of the commodoties you mention is measured in american dollars which as you say is stuffed. the price is not going up as much as you seem to think if you take that into consideration. The only thing that is not stuffed is the chinese economy in whose money the prices will be worked out against in the future. America is on a big downtrend even although they havent worked it out as yet. The NZ economy is being stuffed my investments are all on the ASX. Macdunk

Duncan,
There is a very good essay on petrodollars on www.petrodollarwarfare.com by William Clark dated 15 January 2007. It is 53 pages so it does take a bit of chewing through but it is well worth the read to get his opinion.

Would like your opinion on his opinion if you get time
Cheers

[Nitaa]

Worth to note:

AWE is over 20% off its 2007 high
PPP is about 40% off its 2007 high
NZO is about 30% off its 2007 high.

The main factors are the dry wells and the sell down when the subprime issue hit.

Now oil is at extremely high levels and its short term future direction could go anywhere. With the volaitility in the markets investors are most likely looking at defensive stocks compared to a couple of months ago. All of this amounts to NZO being rerated down in effect. I guess it is no surprise we see the current SP where its at.

Dont write the options off just yet. Although they are now in the "high risk basket", one would be a fool to say they wont be exercised. There is plenty of money to be won or lost over the next 7 1/2 months

[blockhead]

There was a sale of 300 thou options yesterday @ 09c, maybe someone who couldn't make the NZ Cup in ChCh today so decided to back the OD's

[Nitaa]

There was a sale of 300 thou options yesterday @ 09c, maybe someone who couldn't make the NZ Cup in ChCh today so decided to back the OD's
or someone wanting to go to the cup decided to sell their od's

[scamper]

scamper's constantly amazed at the popularity of this share and interest in this thread.
have just looked over the three-year chart, and i see that it specialises in 30% bounces.
Can someone tell me if this is because the fundamentals bounce around, or whether there are a bunch of TA traders behind the moves.

Given that three years ago it was about where it is now, are there any such creatures as long-term investors? I hope all the posters have been dabbling profitably! cheers.

[Balance]

1/ A good quarterly cashflow is a given isn't it? This thread has worked it out so many times before.

2/ Pike - The tunnell will be finished and Pike will be reporting production - From an accounting perspective will be interesting to see when in the transport chain revenue gets booked.

3/ Buyback - A sensible option - we will have to wait and see - Could be announced for the next year at any time - would be best after the next qaurterly for the year ahead and large - not only for the shareholders but also so the company doesn't get taken over.

4/ Kupe not mentioned - will get increasing press especially if looming gas shortages are predicted

5/ Takeover? This is a real possibility - NZO is getting substantially de-risked & has a strong revenue profile looking forward

Of course there are a number of things that could make things worse but look at the current position before being drawn into overall market gloom.

1/ Quarterly cashflow means little - it's what and where the cash is coming and going to. More drilling?

2/ Tui started production. Share price went backwards.

3/ Buyback means giving money back to shareholders. Less money to go into drilling. Unlikely to happen.

4/ Like PRC and Tui, Kupe is already known.

5/ Big miners buy other miners to add to their reserves. NZO has finite reserves.

Current position is that NZOers are still looking through the window (from the outside in the cold) at the hottest party in town.

[bermuda]

1/ Quarterly cashflow means little - it's what and where the cash is coming and going to. More drilling?

2/ Tui started production. Share price went backwards.

3/ Buyback means giving money back to shareholders. Less money to go into drilling. Unlikely to happen.

4/ Like PRC and Tui, Kupe is already known.

5/ Big miners buy other miners to add to their reserves. NZO has finite reserves.

Current position is that NZOers are still looking through the window (from the outside in the cold) at the hottest party in town.


Betcha she's $1.30 at least by 31 March 2008. A decent dozen.

[duncan macgregor]

Betcha she's $1.30 at least by 31 March 2008. A decent dozen. Who cares it was that price three years ago WOOPEE DOO. Macdunk

[Balance]

Who cares it was that price three years ago WOOPEE DOO. Macdunk

And AWE has doubled over the same time.

[dsurf]

1/ Quarterly cashflow means little - it's what and where the cash is coming and going to. More drilling?

2/ Tui started production. Share price went backwards.

3/ Buyback means giving money back to shareholders. Less money to go into drilling. Unlikely to happen.

4/ Like PRC and Tui, Kupe is already known.

5/ Big miners buy other miners to add to their reserves. NZO has finite reserves.

Current position is that NZOers are still looking through the window (from the outside in the cold) at the hottest party in town.


1/ Quarterly cashflow means little - HUH - thought cash coming into a company was good - 4 quarters in the year - I suppose if NZO lost 100m+ then the SP would be the same as if it gained 100m+ - wish I did maths at your school.

[boysy]

interesting release in PPP announcement about possible 4th TuI production well and PPP outlook is interesting from ppp anouncement

"Outlook
Pan Pacific's directors, who together represent a substantial equity in the
company, don't want Pan Pacific to rest on its Tui laurels.
The Board is evaluating ways to expose the company to greater upside by
getting involved in new exploration drilling plays, possibly assisted via
recruitment of an exploration-focussed geoscientist as a full-time CEO and/or
through structuring an alliance with another like-minded company, or through
conventional farm-ins. "

[Toddy]

interesting release in PPP announcement about possible 4th TuI production well and PPP outlook is interesting from ppp anouncement

"Outlook
Pan Pacific's directors, who together represent a substantial equity in the
company, don't want Pan Pacific to rest on its Tui laurels.
The Board is evaluating ways to expose the company to greater upside by
getting involved in new exploration drilling plays, possibly assisted via
recruitment of an exploration-focussed geoscientist as a full-time CEO and/or
through structuring an alliance with another like-minded company, or through
conventional farm-ins. "

Interesting, you mean the 'and, or, maybe' parts. They sound like NZO management.

[Dr_Who]

Worth to note:

AWE is over 20% off its 2007 high
PPP is about 40% off its 2007 high
NZO is about 30% off its 2007 high.



Why dont AWE, PPP and NZO merge? It will cut alot of cost, esp those fatties sitting on the top.

[boysy]

here hoping they do im sure they will be doing the figures

[macduffy]

I'm not sure that it would be attractive to AWE. They have 42.5% of Tui already and, while its a great money-spinner for them they also have 3 other significant producing fields. I guess it depends on whether they regard the Taranaki area as more attractive/prospective than their other options.

Disc: Hold AWE

[duncan macgregor]

I do notice that the options is down to 8.2c on a turnover of about three thousand bucks. I would hate to be lumbered with a heap of them trying to bail out. I hope the poor bugger didnt buy them at 30c or buy them at all. I reckoned they were worth 5c at the start sold my lot for nine now i think they are worth whatever some poor mug will pay for them which will be nothing at all shortly. The pass the parcel game is speeding up who is dumb enough to be holding when the music stops. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

I do notice that the options is down to 8.2c on a turnover of about three thousand bucks. I would hate to be lumbered with a heap of them trying to bail out. I hope the poor bugger didnt buy them at 30c or buy them at all. I reckoned they were worth 5c at the start sold my lot for nine now i think they are worth whatever some poor mug will pay for them which will be nothing at all shortly. The pass the parcel game is speeding up who is dumb enough to be holding when the music stops. MacdunkIndeed risky my dear friend. But you would have to be a complete fool to write them off yet.

ps. still holding nzood as well

[duncan macgregor]

never mind the fool writing them off just yet, think about the fool writing them off in july. Then you might say the fools that bought them at 30c have written themselves off. Its not what the company earns, its what the market perception of the company is that dictates the sp. To many snouts in the trough, to many disgruntled shareholders, to little disclosure of company intentions. PASS THE PARCEL from now on up to when the music stops for the options. Macdunk

[boysy]

sure it could be pass the parcel though come june 30th next year it might be worth actually paying for the parcel only time will tell.

[winner69]

Betcha she's $1.30 at least by 31 March 2008. A decent dozen.

..... even that wouldn't bring much joy to the OD holders .... only be worth what they are today .... about 9 cents ..... is that why Mac Dunk talks about passing the parcel

[duncan macgregor]

..... even that wouldn't bring much joy to the OD holders .... only be worth what they are today .... about 9 cents ..... is that why Mac Dunk talks about passing the parcel To be worth 9c the sp must be $1-59 in july. I cant see it myself but then i dont care its not my money being risked like that. Macdunk

[arjay]

Now now McDunk, there I was feeling all smug because someone bought my ODs off me for 30c. Now you're making me feel guilty.

NZO managment really does owe it to its shareholders to spell out how and when shareholders will benefit from the now accumulating wealth. As someone recently commented, shareholders are currently outside in the cold watching the champagne flowing inside.

[fish]

IMO the options will be well in the money and exercised when due next june-management can easily manipulate shareprices when they will (eg look at Collins who was ramping up the Brierley share price whilst selling his holding ).
TR holds millions of options-you can be assurred they will be worth a lot by next june .
Like macdoogle I sold all mine ASAP after issue at 9c but differ in that I am vastly overweight in NZO .
.

[dsurf]

To be worth 9c the sp must be $1-59 in july. I cant see it myself but then i dont care its not my money being risked like that. Macdunk

Mac Dunk if you do not care why are have posted the "worthless pass the parcel theme" at least 20 times on this thread. You will not stop til they get to your 5c - give it a break

[duncan macgregor]

Mac Dunk if you do not care why are have posted the "worthless pass the parcel theme" at least 20 times on this thread. You will not stop til they get to your 5c - give it a break I take it you think they are heading down to that level as well?. If you look at it another way think about the people i saved by bringing it to their attention. Hope you dont get caught with the parcel. Macdunk

[Toddy]

I take it you think they are heading down to that level as well?. If you look at it another way think about the people i saved by bringing it to their attention. Hope you dont get caught with the parcel. Macdunk

Macdunk

There are more than likely a number of posters to this thread holding large parcels of options. Its not very helpful repeating yourself over and over to satisfy your own agenda.

Do the mature thing and move on.

[Dr_Who]

The question is.. what will push up the NZO SP?? Definitely not the movement of the oil price and we are not likely to see any dividend or a share buyback.

[duncan macgregor]

The question is.. what will push up the NZO SP?? Definitely not the movement of the oil price and we are not likely to see any dividend or a share buyback. The point is they are in the money swilling at the trough for a few more years with your money laughing all the way to the bank they simply wont care. Macdunk

[Scuffer]

The question is.. what will push up the NZO SP?? Definitely not the movement of the oil price and we are not likely to see any dividend or a share buyback.

In my opinion nada nada nada.

[Dr_Who]

I understand what you are trying to tell us McDunk. I too have reservations about some of the people running NZO, hence I only have a small holding. The brokers out there are also saying the same thing. Without the support of the brokers and institutions, this stock sp will struggle.

[trackers]

I personally think everyone needs to:

a. chill out a bit
b. ignore macdunk and his neverending rant
c. stop with the conspiracy theories; and,
d. be patient.

money's pouring in, pike's coming online in a quarter, kupe's progressing well...

[airedale]

:) I have told Dunc before that he spends too much time hanging around on NOG Corner.
In the old days the Glasgow Police used to send a couple of big Highland constables on to Sauchiehall St to move them along:D

[temuk]

dunk---

I spend hours reading this thread and I get pissed off when you think I've got alzheimers!
Please give the dog a bone.

[blockhead]

When mcdunk stops posting negative thoughts we should phone his quack, it will indicate he is poorly.

[Balance]

You should have listened to McDunk in the last two years and saved yourselves a lot of grief and also, made a lot of money.

Remember the predictions?

NZO was going to be worth $2.00 plus when Tui, Pike and Kupe started moving. Not so.

Pike was going to be a hot IPO and stock was going to be very hard to get. Not so.

NZO sp will go up when Tui started producing. Not so.

Meanwhile, resources and their prices have been zooming up and big, big gains have been made in other resource stocks.

Yes, you ahould have listened to MacDunk. Instead some of you are wanting to shoot the messenger and the correct predictor!

[Romer]

There's also another way of looking at things - - - Maybe the price of the options lingers because MacDunk keeps on saying it will!

[Nitaa]

You should have listened to McDunk in the last two years and saved yourselves a lot of grief and also, made a lot of money.

Remember the predictions?

NZO was going to be worth $2.00 plus when Tui, Pike and Kupe started moving. Not so.

Pike was going to be a hot IPO and stock was going to be very hard to get. Not so.

NZO sp will go up when Tui started producing. Not so.

Meanwhile, resources and their prices have been zooming up and big, big gains have been made in other resource stocks.

Yes, you ahould have listened to MacDunk. Instead some of you are wanting to shoot the messenger and the correct predictor!Sorry but you have the general concept wrong.

The talk of future sp etc is speculative and everyone will have a different opinion. Some might have thought $2.00 but i am sure many thought its worth more and many thought way less. Your post suggest that all NZO investors think exactly the same.

Im not sure when mcdunk bailed but clearly he took a hit but has since done well. A fact that no one can ignore is someone who has held steadfast on the heads for 4 or 5 years have more than trippled there money. So your agument is biased to suit your position. The long term holders (ie 5 years) dont gloat everyday how they have turned $100k into $300k plus. That is the point where many of the posters get sick of the broken record that Mcdunk goes on about.

To get back where NZO is at the moment there have been many sceptics who have said that Tui, Pike and Kupe will never get off the ground. Now of course they cannot say that. There has been many who said that oil will never go above $50 per barrel, Yadi ya. What happens in the future no one can tell. all option holders know that their options may well be worthless in 7 or 8 months time. But most will know that they are not out of the game just yet. Stranger things happen every day.

No problem with having an opinion but one thing i can tell you is that Macdunk, sooner or later will shoot himself in the foot. But then of course like the rest of the doomsdayers he will disappear into the sunset with his tail bewteen his legs.

Personally, i am waiting on the options to hit my strike price then wham. I have set aside an amount i am prepared to lose. If i lose i can live with that, if i break even or win then of course i can live with that also.

[temuk]

[QUOTE=Balance;173136]You should have listened to McDunk

Listen and listen and listen and listen to the same thing

But wait!!


Yes, you ahould have listened to MacDunk.

and listen and listen yet again to the same thing.

[the machine]

watch out for tyhe awe agm next thursday - re tui H4 etc

M

[bermuda]

The beuaty about this thread is that I know a few of the big sellers. Once the overhang goes watch out.

[the machine]

The beuaty about this thread is that I know a few of the big sellers. Once the overhang goes watch out.

and how many shares do those big sellers have left to sell before the overhang goes?

M

[duncan macgregor]

Sorry but you have the general concept wrong.
No problem with having an opinion but one thing i can tell you is that Macdunk, sooner or later will shoot himself in the foot. But then of course like the rest of the doomsdayers he will disappear into the sunset with his tail bewteen his legs.
Personally, i am waiting on the options to hit my strike price then wham. I have set aside an amount i am prepared to lose. If i lose i can live with that, if i break even or win then of course i can live with that also. NITA, it is you that has the general concept wrong. Get to know the difference between rational investment, and gambling. It is not rational to hold an option at 30c watch it downtrend to 8c then say if you lose the lot you can live with it. Why didnt you average down buying as the op dropped when you are so right, and the market so wrong that way you might have lost more. The Macdunks never leave with their tail between their legs, infact there is a MACDUNK GOT IT WRONG THREAD.
Rational investment is take the emotion out of the decision. A perfect example of this is arranged marrages which seem to work better if you go by the divorce rate. Is it rational to think that the NZO sp will be above $1-50 in seven months time that is all that matters not who is right or wrong. I doubled my money twice with my 9c option money in hindesight i could have tripled it by selling on the way back at 27c but thats life we all make mistakes. Macdunk

[dsurf]

I take it you think they are heading down to that level as well?. If you look at it another way think about the people i saved by bringing it to their attention. Hope you dont get caught with the parcel. Macdunk

Yes I do have some - You cannot predict the future believe it or not - they may (50% chance IMO) be worthless - but the may be worth something - we will have to wait 7 .5 months (assuming the date is not extended (5-10% chance IMO) to find out. As an example can you tell me what the PRC SP will be at the end of May 2008 and can you gaurantee PRC will not be taken over? I doubt it.

[bermuda]

and how many shares do those big sellers have left to sell before the overhang goes?

M

Now that is a very good question. And quite simply I dont know the answer.

But in the meantime all is well at NZO. Absolutely coining it.

[Paddie]

But in the meantime all is well at NZO. Absolutely coining it.[/QUOTE]


Pity the shareholders weren't coining it!

Paddie

[the machine]

the p/e ratio is shown as 35:1, which by my reckoning will drop to less than 5:1 once the half yearly reports come out.

we know nzo are creaming in the $

items that may give upside to sp in next month are
-payback announcement for tui - it must be close and hopefully a new world record in recent times
-tui upgrade - awe agm next thursday and ppp agm gave us a tasteof what to come re tui

the half yearly financial will be the big item in about 3-4 months

M

[Ripping]

well, i sold down 40% of my holding over the last couple of days. Very uninspiring shareprice performance since I bought in, two, three years ago.
I still have a little faith that the share will improve over the next few months, due to PRC performance and possible Tui reserve upgrades.
I'm off to buy a bike...

[duncan macgregor]

well, i sold down 40% of my holding over the last couple of days. Very uninspiring shareprice performance since I bought in, two, three years ago.
I still have a little faith that the share will improve over the next few months, due to PRC performance and possible Tui reserve upgrades.
I'm off to buy a bike... PRC performance wont make much difference to anything as far as NZO are concerned. They are only a large shareholder waiting on dividends or sp escalation like every other holder. I would imagine they will sell their shares in PRC when they need more money to further explore for oil. They managed to sucker the punters with the float, with to many shares at to high a cost, but thats in the past, the sp reflects that, struggling to get back to issue price. So much for looking after the best interests of the shareholders, by giving them a win instead of screwing the last cent out of them. They still havent learned that you cant fool all the people all of the time, most wake up as we are seeing on this thread and move on. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mackdadunk,
You hammer NZO for wanting to explore for oil... thats what this business is all about... oil exploration companies explore for oil.... yes there are associated costs, thats what the payoff is all about...
...... If your so concerned about oilers that drill wells then you shouldnot be talking about investing in NWE as thats what they will do with large cashflow also...:p....
...
:p
.^sc

[Mick100]

How did your exams go shrewd?

[Wiremu]

[QUOTE most wake up as we are seeing on this thread and move on. [/QUOTE]

Everyone other than Macdunk that is.

[Crypto Crude]

pretty well mick...
although, Its been my 1st experience ever that a Lecturer lied about what would be in test, got thrown off abit but pulled through ok....
...
Im moving away next week and doing a stint in Ashburton for 12weeks over holidays, wont have internet but will be back home one day a week...
Ive got well over 10k shares in meo...hoping to open cfd long next week...
...
Im competing in a share picking comp with mackdadunk over on another forumn, and he picked NWE and said he would invest also....
Im not sure what the big cat will do seeing that he doesnot like oil companies that explore....:D
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

pretty well mick...
although, Its been my 1st experience ever that a Lecturer lied about what would be in test, got thrown off abit but pulled through ok....
...
Im moving away next week and doing a stint in Ashburton for 12weeks over holidays, wont have internet but will be back home one day a week...
Ive got well over 10k shares in meo...hoping to open cfd long next week...
...
Im competing in a share picking comp with mackdadunk over on another forumn, and he picked NWE and said he would invest also....
Im not sure what the big cat will do seeing that he doesnot like oil companies that explore....:D
:cool:
.^sc Nothing wrong with exploring oil companies crude one as long as its done in an honest above board manner. I picked NWE rather than MEO after a little research so i suppose you will have to pick MEO. I dont care if i invest in companies producing weapons of mass destruction or printing bibles as long as they dont try ripping me off and the sp heads north. I would almost bet my last dollar you wont pick NZO in our little contest. GO ON SHREWDY I DARE YOU i will even give you a 5% start on that one. The boys and girls on this thread would luv you for it mate. Macdunk

[Toddy]

The volumes are up today on the od's. I'm picking that the od price will settle between 6 and 7 cents as this value represents a fair 'punt' price.

I'm also picking that the NZO SP will increase by a whopping 30% over the next 6 months. I'd be happy if that happpens as it represents a very good return based on todays prices.

[Crypto Crude]

mackdadunk,
Im not going to pick NZO given that your picking something that will return more... I reckon I can outperform NZO and you.... and wont be taking head starters... Id give you a head starter before I took one on mate...
I will be looking closely if OD's around 6-7c just prior to momoho...
:D
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

MD,
Im quite keen to make a side bet with NZO though...
toddys onto it...
:cool:
.^sc

[AMR]

SC, what about PRC then? I also noticed that CMC Markets now have a PRC CFD with 10% margin.

For the record, I am holding PRC still but am contemplating selling my holding and buying them back as CFDs.

[Dr_Who]

SC, what about PRC then? I also noticed that CMC Markets now have a PRC CFD with 10% margin.

For the record, I am holding PRC still but am contemplating selling my holding and buying them back as CFDs.


What is CFD?

[Bilo]

Now that is a very good question. And quite simply I dont know the answer.

But in the meantime all is well at NZO. Absolutely coining it.

Perhaps they ever owned them.
Perhaps they acquired the short around early August and have been able to wait until someone will come up with enough cash to buy them all back.......at about $1.00....

These are the marvels of the fair market - the indicator of current price and value - for those who want to participate on McDs playing field.

Daft idea enabling people to short shares that lack liquidity. As well as be incapabable of tracing who might have manipulated the market.

If its like the ABN Amro case it might all be revealed in another year...and we will have someone else rapped over the knuckles for allowing a minor trading indiscretion.

[Crypto Crude]

xxamr_corpxx,
I would never recommend CFD's in the current market unless you think the company has a short term announcement, or something to get the stock moving fast... inside info, or a sure bet then go Yeeaahhh haaaaa
....
what you want is more volatilty with the share and Im not so sure that PRC has that... Im expecting PRC to go sideways in the range PRC has had or tick tock up slowly until pre production days.... If you feel comfortable with the risks, and maybe prepared to open a few positions next year when things are more set, and prepared to lose abit now then why not? it could rise up.... PRC will come right and as long as you are persistant at opening a few positions and build on them then eventually you will make good profits...
rule one, never over extend yourself on one position...
I learnt the hard way after over extending myself on what was a sure bet thing, but came unstuck with a minor operational delay and big market drop...2 weeks later it went kabamm...
rule two,understand what you are getting yourself into...

Dr WHO...
where have you been for the last 5 years?....
CFD-contract for difference... Its a derivitive...
its kind of like buying a house,....you only pay down small deposit and use providers/banks money as leverage, you pay interest on your position... you can go short and profit from falling prices...
stocks, indicies, exchange rate,commodity positions can be opened...
you can open up a big investment with small outlay of cash...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

mackdadunk,
Im not going to pick NZO given that your picking something that will return more... I reckon I can outperform NZO and you.... and wont be taking head starters... Id give you a head starter before I took one on mate...
I will be looking closely if OD's around 6-7c just prior to momoho...
:D
.^sc SHREWD AND CRUDE is no mug to be set up by a wily old macdunk. He did not swallow the bait, and select NZO with a 5% starter over NWE. Good on you mate you think for yourself. I selected an oiler previousely raved on by the crude, one knowing full well that he would either select NWE or MEO. I got in first, did the analysis then selected NWE then give him the hero bait to select NZO which he is to smart an operator to fall for. This is a good second opinion from the crude one about what he really thinks about NZO prospects over the next twelve months without upsetting the worshippers. SHREWD CRUDE has now stated that NZO will gain less in sp by at least 5% in the next 12 months than NWE. It will be interesting to see what he selects as i have a lot of respect for his judgements in the oil industry. Macdunk
What interests me is what miner will he select and why.

[Dr_Who]

xxamr_corpxx,

Dr WHO...
where have you been for the last 5 years?....
CFD-contract for difference... Its a derivitive...
its kind of like buying a house,....you only pay down small deposit and use providers/banks money as leverage, you pay interest on your position... you can go short and profit from falling prices...
stocks, indicies, exchange rate,commodity positions can be opened...
you can open up a big investment with small outlay of cash...
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks for the explanation. Is this similar to margin lending? I usually only but the head shares and not a big gambler with large balls for high risk derivatives. Where can one learn more about CFD and who to contact?

[bermuda]

Hey Mac,
What is it with you?
You and I both know;
1. NZO is substantially undervalued.
2. The Tui project is absolutely coining it at record crude prices
3. The Pike project, while still full of risk in the investor's mind, is going to be a seriously good project at record forecast coking coal prices
4.The Kupe project is on track and there is a better than even chance that there will be a huge reserve increase once additional drills are made in the area.

Are you trying to knock the price down and have yourself a private feed?

I value your posts but really your obseession with NZO blunts your mana.

DISC: NZO,PRC,BAS,BOW,VPE,VPEO,NWE,TEX,PES,

Macca,
These are the only stocks I own. Do you think I would hold NZO,PRC if I didnt think there was a big future for them?
Check out the others.

[tim23]

Agree Bermuda - looks like a serious case of downramping to me; he may be succeeding!

[duncan macgregor]

BERMUDA, Looking back in hindesight in what i have posted on sharetrader show me one thing that i got wrong with NZO. I lay the challenge out to all the blue eyed investors tell me what i got wrong up to this point in time, now that you can judge me with hindesight. I also lay the challenge out that i stated at the start that i valued the options at 5c I now state that they are worthless. Hindesight is the proof of the pudding which is still in the making. So far Macdunk 10 out of 10 blue, eyed brigade still with fingers crossed. Dont judge me in what might be, judge me in what i said would happen, and has come to pass. When it all comes to pass the parcel will you blame me for your stupidity?, or will you learn from the experience and move on. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

BERMUDA, Looking back in hindesight in what i have posted on sharetrader show me one thing that i got wrong with NZO. I lay the challenge out to all the blue eyed investors tell me what i got wrong up to this point in time, now that you can judge me with hindesight. I also lay the challenge out that i stated at the start that i valued the options at 5c I now state that they are worthless. Hindesight is the proof of the pudding which is still in the making. So far Macdunk 10 out of 10 blue, eyed brigade still with fingers crossed. Dont judge me in what might be, judge me in what i said would happen, and has come to pass. When it all comes to pass the parcel will you blame me for your stupidity?, or will you learn from the experience and move on. Macdunk
You still don't get in Macdunk. Its the constantly repeating the same phrases time after time. If you want to pick one thing is you lack of foresight in picking the options to more than triple on what you sold them at. If that isnt wrong nothing is.

The flip side to what you are saying is, where has Bermuda got his points wrong in hindsight? I would have to say hes been far more accurate than you. The big difference is Bermuda doesnt gloat on how much he sold his options for (at a profit).

[digger]

Bermuda can you give me a email. I do not seems to have got through with my last two to you.

[duncan macgregor]

Good on you NITA you can give me a real blast at the st meeting on the 15th. Bad language at two paces i promise to let you have the first five minutes. Seriously though you should keep emotion out of investing or gambling decisions all the time. I backed Lenox Lewis to beat David TUA in Australia at four to one and david Tua to beat Lenox Lewis in NZ at four to one. I really didnt give a sh*t who won i only knew it was going to be me. I always back Australia to beat NZ in NZ and NZ to beat Australia in Australia you should think about that, and learn when it comes to money leave emotion out of it, or join the losers. To many emotional investors throwing money away being all emotional. Macdunk

[Ripping]

Thanks for the explanation. Is this similar to margin lending? I usually only but the head shares and not a big gambler with large balls for high risk derivatives. Where can one learn more about CFD and who to contact?

I've opened an account with cmcmarkets.co.nz .. ask them and they will send an info pack...
plenty of info on their site tho.
you need $1000 in an account to trade forex/metals, need $5k to trade share cfd's.
Forex has 1% margin requirement, and no charge to trade. i.e. as many trades as you like for no commission. (share cfd's attract fees) Software seems good too (and free).

[Nitaa]

my friend. i have never ever backed nz teams in nz tab, not the warriors, crusader or whatever. However on several occasions i have backed other countries or overseas teams on the local tab if they have playd in nz subject to me believing the odds warrant it.i f you have read my post in the off market forum i even stated that the odds for the ab's to win the world cup was one of the most silliest bets. not just in nz but with overseas bookies. simple reason if you go by stats alone (not just world cup stats) you would have backed them with the odds they were paying. to clarify your point, i avoid where possible to take any emotion out of gambling or investing.

I am already in profit of nzo plus i have free carry on what is left in my nzo portfilio. Remember, i first brought nzo back in early 2002 or 2003. this is when nzo got as low as 25 or 25 cps and the options were at 6cps. You do the math.

Point is macdunk, i or most others dont keep gloating or keep repeating the same ol thing. You have some very good imput but i just dont get it when you repeat the same shet different day stuff

[Mick100]

BERMUDA, Looking back in hindesight in what i have posted on sharetrader show me one thing that i got wrong with NZO. I lay the challenge out to all the blue eyed investors tell me what i got wrong up to this point in time, now that you can judge me with hindesight.

OK, I'll accept the challenge - not really much of a challenge for me though;)

I don't take much notice of what you say macdunk - one would have to be a total nutcase to take you seriously. However I do take notice of what you do - (I find it interesting to watch what the dumb money is doing)
you bought a truckload of shares at $1.18 and sold them two yrs later at 90c:o

It doesn't matter what you say or have said in the past - your not going to recoup your losses on NZO by continuously bad mouthing the company.

Although I am disappointed with the shareprice performance over the past 6 months, I am, along with other long term holders, sitting on a healthy profit with my NZO shares
,

[Mingeathinaikos]

Good on you NITA you can give me a real blast at the st meeting on the 15th. Bad language at two paces i promise to let you have the first five minutes. Seriously though you should keep emotion out of investing or gambling decisions all the time. I backed Lenox Lewis to beat David TUA in Australia at four to one and david Tua to beat Lenox Lewis in NZ at four to one. I really didnt give a sh*t who won i only knew it was going to be me. I always back Australia to beat NZ in NZ and NZ to beat Australia in Australia you should think about that, and learn when it comes to money leave emotion out of it, or join the losers. To many emotional investors throwing money away being all emotional. Macdunk


my friend. i have never ever backed nz teams in nz tab, not the warriors, crusader or whatever. However on several occasions i have backed other countries or overseas teams on the local tab if they have playd in nz subject to me believing the odds warrant it.i f you have read my post in the off market forum i even stated that the odds for the ab's to win the world cup was one of the most silliest bets. not just in nz but with overseas bookies. simple reason if you go by stats alone (not just world cup stats) you would have backed them with the odds they were paying. to clarify your point, i avoid where possible to take any emotion out of gambling or investing.

I am already in profit of nzo plus i have free carry on what is left in my nzo portfilio. Remember, i first brought nzo back in early 2002 or 2003. this is when nzo got as low as 25 or 25 cps and the options were at 6cps. You do the math.

Point is macdunk, i or most others dont keep gloating or keep repeating the same ol thing. You have some very good imput but i just dont get it when you repeat the same shet different day stuff

You're both wasting money if you are using local bookies! www.betfair.com is the way forward, now sign up and get all those profits on teams at some decent odds! :)

[Crypto Crude]

mackdadunk,
you really cant be that silly trying to compare NZO to NWE are you?
they are two totally different companies, different market values, different capital setups, different cycles, different projects, different cashflow, different management style, different contacts and different exploration potential.... different different different... If my MOST important goal was capital protection then I prob would choose NZO....!
Its less volatile, more stable and im expecting it to go sideways/up....
But It is hard to think how SP will rise for NZO over the next few months, given all the down SP has had, when all the market info should send it up....
..... NZO has kupe development drilling, momoho, and PRC production in 2008, it does have something to offer.... PRC is discounting this company more than anyone would have thought....
Its a shock to see NZ's premier oiler at $1.... having more certainty now than we had before production is surely worth a premium... having bigger reserves and much higher oil prices also....
... It was worth taking on upside exposure through the exploration wells we had, in hignsight it was not the best outcome but good risk return exposure at the time....
....
:cool:
.^sc

[Balance]

Hey Mac,
What is it with you?
You and I both know;
1. NZO is substantially undervalued.
2. The Tui project is absolutely coining it at record crude prices
3. The Pike project, while still full of risk in the investor's mind, is going to be a seriously good project at record forecast coking coal prices
4.The Kupe project is on track and there is a better than even chance that there will be a huge reserve increase once additional drills are made in the area.


Macca,
These are the only stocks I own. Do you think I would hold NZO,PRC if I didnt think there was a big future for them?
Check out the others.


Of course you hold NZO because you must believe that there's a big future for them. But is NZO really substantially undervalued?

If it is, why are the institutions not buying? Instaed it looks like they are happily selling out the placement stock they took at 90 cents (plus an option) to the punters lining up and buying off them? Nice quick profit for them, huh?

I have seen a valuation done on NZO and it goes along the lines of :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NZV = 92 cents per share. The cash that NZO is sitting on will be used up.

[Unicorn]

Of course you hold NZO because you must believe that there's a big future for them. But is NZO really substantially undervalued?

If it is, why are the institutions not buying? Instaed it looks like they are happily selling out the placement stock they took at 90 cents (plus an option) to the punters lining up and buying off them? Nice quick profit for them, huh?

I have seen a valuation done on NZO and it goes along the lines of :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NZV = 92 cents per share. The cash that NZO is sitting on will be used up.

According to your "valuation", from an unidentified source ...
$40M Cash is worth nothing.
Tax credits are worth nothing.
The company has nil value other than the identified reserves in those 3 projects.
The Kupe partners are spending $1,100M for a $300M return.

Not a valuation I would give any credibility to.

[Bilo]

(un) Balanced "saw a valuation done on NZO and it goes along the lines of :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NZV = 92 cents per share."

Maybe USD a couple of years ago?:p If you saw it on the net it must be true!

Try something like this:

Tui 32M barrels of oil (current P2!) @ USD 90 per barrel
=USD2,900M
less project cost USD270M
less FPSO 5yrs ~USD170M (plus 3more @ USD100M)

The Tui project could net USD2360M

To NZO USD295M

Forget about time value of money, margins on risk percentages and all that stuff, assume oil price rises will keep pace, the Tui area will yield more oil at marginal drilling costs so don’t discount for risk. It is all pretty near term now.

256M shares on issue
115 US cents per NZO share
and put whatever USD/NZD you care to choose (and Balance get the conversion around the right way. Oops it is over the NZOOD option conversion price - perhaps I have made some mistake, McD?

Potentially

For Tui
without anything else....

Now I don't want to become labelled a ramper, or mislead anyone in to thinking that oil exploration drilling is not more risky than investing in Vector or Telecom:rolleyes:, so spend the next six months doing your own calculations. The share price will be whatever whoever controls this illiquid share wants to make it...and my guess is that will be whatever makes them plenty...steal or sting comes to mind.

[Balance]

Bilo, your Tui valuation tells a lot!

You have forgotten cost of production, shipping costs, hedging costs etc.

No wonder the institutions are so happy to let you 'steal' NZO shares at $1.00 off them!

Meanwhile, in fantasy land, Bilo has just valued BP at US$10 trillion.

[Bilo]

Bilo, your Tui valuation tells a lot!

You have forgotten cost of production, shipping costs, hedging costs etc.

No wonder the institutions are so happy to let you 'steal' NZO shares at $1.00 off them!

Meanwhile, in fantasy land, Bilo has just valued BP at US$10 trillion.

The company answered this at the AGM.
The costs associated with production are small and you should believe that - working people don't get CEO compensation.
The project hedging costs have also been established as negligible.
The shipping is cents per barrel.

How do you arrive at a valuation for BP? Comparing the major oilers to exploration companies is true fantasy land. BP are into retail, refining, petrochemicals, alternative energy, a diminishing activity exploring for elephant oil fields in countries where sovereign risk is major, poor safety record, poor maintenance management practices, doubtful safety responsibility, and living with the legacy of having a bent poofter as CEO for many years. Start another thread to get some more balance, Balance.
I certainly wouldn't attempt any comparison or valuation of BP on this basis.

In fact I only proposed a potential value for the Tui project to one member of the Tui consortium.

I am fully in Unicorn's camp on the valuation that you posted.
"not a valuation I would give any credit to"

The company has provided enough information about their three major activities to enable investors to make their own assessment of value. There is just not one "company valuer" in NZ whom I would trust. AIA shareholders should be concerned.

The issue for NZO is not value, it is one of an irrational head share price, and a currently stuffed capital structure.

I say irrational but:
if I included the ODs in a Company DCF valuation with a cash outflow of $200M in 7 months time (with the only prospective cash inflows to compensate for this substantial sum a reduction in bank debt!!!). My worst case DCF valuation of the company would also reflect a very serious situation.

The NZO directors' inability to see this from a shareholder's point of view is becoming a major concern. They had a chance to address this at the AGM but dismissed it at that time, and haven't progressed in the three weeks since. They have chosen to pursue a growth strategy. The company's failure to adequately address the potential variations to the OD issue with shareholders puts a damper on the share price for major investors this close to conversion date.

So tied up with a dual listing that they can't see the wood for the trees, value for cash or something like that....
Dump the dual listing is my call.

Unfortunately Bermuda, the company is coining it now, and could continue to for the next 20years without additional capital, but extend your investor DCF analysis with ODs included ......

And now I could be a down ramper...

[Unicorn]

Bilo,

I like your enthusiasm but I feel your Tui valuation is a bit optimistic. It may work out as you suggest, but at this stage I feel we are better to stick with something nearer mid-case rather than best case.

The two major aspects where our valuations differ is in the price of oil and the royalty payments (I allow 20% of gross profit for royalty). The key parameters are volatile at present so the estimate needs to be reviewed as the variables change. I see the present $86.25US per barrel (or better) as a bonus, rather than something we should expect going forward. For now I will stick with $100NZ per barrel. The longer we continue with these higher than expected prices and higher than expected production, the better it looks.

My current estimates for NZO share of Tui ($NZ, millions) are ..

Year Income Expense Net
1 130 50 64 (includes capex repayment)
2 80 10 56
3 50 10 32
4 40 10 24
5 30 10 16
6 25 10 12
7 25 10 12
8 20 10 8

Which gives npv of around 170M at 10% discount rate - say 65cps.

[Bilo]

Unicorn thanks for that contribution.

Royalty
I had left out the royalty (and a few other expenses). I don't recall the exact liabilities wrt Tui but 5% ad valorem and 20pc profits was used by someone. Remembering NZO's Tax situation I think that I was almost justified in my rough treatment, in this case, at this time. And your treatment while fair enough as 12.5% of Tui, possibly understates Tui's mid case contribution to NZO.

Last month I posted the mid range number (I think based on NPV at 10% of company released information wrt expected EBIT) was $200M for Tui.

Price Of Oil
At OPEC yesterday someone mentioned USD200 a barrel if the USA hits Iran. Thankfully Saudi royalty value their relationship with the USA. The only thing holding back USD100 a barrel was the threat of worldwide recession cooling speculator's "enthusiasm". As DS recently indicated we have had USD100 TAPIS oil a week or so ago. The Tapis premium is not in your estimate, in fact NZD100 is only ~USD80. So I think the only way to treat the price of oil is to state what price you use and probably indicate what difference it makes to your calculations by providing reworked numbers at a low, and a high, as well as an expected oil price over the period under consideration. My assumption that the POO (TAPIS for Tui) will probably only increase from USD90 - as you suggest - may well eventuate.

Mid-case numbers
Rather than forever trying to hit a forecast with one "mid-case" number, valuations should include a mid-case low where most things turn out bad and a mid -case high where most things turn out smelling of roses. This treatment would add to the overall understanding IMO.

Enthusiasm?
Well currently not much really, for NZO/NZOOD. The NZOOD money is the major concern that I have. As DS said - NZO doesn't have a current need for more cash from shareholders. The growth "strategy" lacks substance. Current enthusiasm for PRC :)

[Balance]

Unicorn, using 10% for discounting Tui oil? That's where you differ from the institutional market and that's why they will not buy into NZO. Try 12.5% to 15%.

Bilo, you are starting to look desparate. You wrote - "The company answered this at the AGM. The costs associated with production are small and you should believe that - working people don't get CEO compensation."

You should try that with the folks who believed Charles Prince at Citicorp that they had accounted for their sub-prime exposure in early Oct and then, announced further write-downs of $9 billions to $11 billions less than 3 weeks later! Also, try that with Sky City shareholders who were told that Evan Davies knew what he was doing when he bought into Adelaide casino.

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Valuation as per :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NAV = 92 cents per share.

Now you know why the institutions are not buying.

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