NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[777]

They can but no doubt many do not file a return. And as the deduction is greater than the marginal tax rate many have, they miss out on it.

[Phaedrus]

You don't need me to verify your visions, YK - you and your trusty ruler are doing just fine! A single cent rise gives a break of the trendline.
There were clear Buy signals yesterday too. BigBob commented on the "Key Reversal" noting that this was "a very powerful trend reversal signal". The fact that this one was on well above average volume made it even stronger. Fast oscillators such as the RSI(10) shown here also triggered Buy signals yesterday.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZO92.gif

[swissboy]

interesting according to Stockness Monster only 25 sales sofar this morning each nearly averaging $ 40000.00

[BigBob]

Thanks Mr P & BigBob as well

You're welcome Yankiwi - I am honoured to be mentioned in the same breath as the Great Mr P.... :o)

[Beagle]

Couldn't resist the temptation-added some more today.

Roger that, Yesterday and again this morning.

[RRR]

My portfolio looks very unbalanced due to PRC/NZO.

[digger]

Yes looks like NZO has been getting the feeling from shartrader. The shares certainly are a good deal at todays prices. Hope the directors have freed themselves from any obligation to buy at prices that previous cash issue were or share in lue. Since that time we had our chance to strike it rich and we now have no more claim on a given fixed price that the lotto loser have the day after. Buy best at market rates.Remember no one has to sell.

[dsurf]

Great news - should put a flloor under the SP at $1.20

[Beagle]

Great news - should put a flloor under the SP at $1.20

Agreed. I'd like to think my forthright comments on the matter might have had a very small part to play in this decision. Regardless one way or the other I think the quantum of the buy-back @ just over 2% of share capital spead over just on ten months is really little more than a token gesture. Let me unpack that a bit.

Something is better than nothing, I would conceed that but I would have thought something more meaningful at around 5-10% of share capital would be appropriate in the circumstances.

There could well be close to the 8.5m shares issued as share in lieu of dividend with the forthcoming dividend,, (does anyone know the approximate current participation rate ?), so quite why they would continue to issue shares at a discount to traded ex dividend VWAP and then buy them back later seems somewhat illogical, although I would conceed its gives individual shareholders more choice in that they can choose to participate in either unscaling or down-sizing their investment, through participation in either plan.

May I suggest the directors may want to consider suspending the shares in lieu of dividend scheme at such times in the future when they beleive the market is mis-pricing the company's shares. I know other companies who believe the market is profoundly mis-pricing their shares have chosen to do this from time to time and I would have thought this makes good common-sense, especiually if its done contemporaneously with the buy-back.

[neopoleII]

recon a 10cent divi would of driven the sp up faster than a $10mill give away.

[the machine]

i wonder if holders of less than a marketable quantity will be targeted/

M

[neopoleII]

recon the millions of 1cent part paid shares the staff get will be inline for the buy back.

[Beagle]

recon the millions of 1cent part paid shares the staff get will be inline for the buy back.

Its an on market buy-back, only fully paid tradeable shares can be purchased at market price on or after 10 September 2010.

Itrs not a give-away as you've suggested and on market buy-backs have been used for many many years sucessfully by many companies looking to optimise returns to shareholders. I just wish the directors would really put their money where their mouth is and buy say 30 million back over the next year or so. Although I'm somewhat underwhelmed, the SP is up 5 cents this morning so the market likes the idea.

[Billy Boy]

I wish they would kill this DRP !! mind you thats just me.
BB

[J R Ewing]

Its an on market buy-back, only fully paid tradeable shares can be purchased at market price on or after 10 September 2010.

I just wish the directors would really put their money where their mouth is and buy say 30 million back over the next year or so.

I think I agree with your sentiment, it's not a huge buyback. But I guess the directors want to keep some cash for future developments. They would look pretty silly if they needed funds for some project and they had to have a rights issue shortly after a significant buyback!

[geezy]

i'd rather just know whats their plan, or do they have any real plan . rather than a buy back, it allows speculators/traders to come and manipulate the sp

[dsurf]

It may not seem a large buy back in terms of shares on issue but IMO it IS large enough to protect the SP downside and also will be able to manuipulate the SP upwards on those many low volume days.

[dsurf]

i'd rather just know whats their plan, or do they have any real plan . rather than a buy back, it allows speculators/traders to come and manipulate the sp

How does a buyback allow speculators/traders to come and manipulate the sp? If anything it will discourage shorting & the extra demand will lift the SP

[geezy]

buy now and knowing the SP will be supported - then sell?

[fabs]

The collective managements 200 hrs. expertise has just been increased by probably 2 days, to 200 years and 2 days this year, being the time it took to work this brilliant scheme out, in the perennial lead up to the AGM it may just stop the price to fall as usual after.

[Beagle]

SP up 4 cents today, I'd suggest the floor has been effectivly set at $1.20 cum divvy, with no apparent downside, that only leaves upside, a one sided bet ? Couldn't help myself and had another top-up purchase today, actions speak louder than words....

[Xerof]

I wonder if NZX Surveillance will take a look at what date the NZO Board passed the resolution to enter into the buy-back arrangement, who was buying the heavy volumes late last week, and was it through any particular Broker......

[Wilkins_Micawber]

I wonder if NZX Surveillance will take a look at what date the NZO Board passed the resolution to enter into the buy-back arrangement, who was buying the heavy volumes late last week, and was it through any particular Broker......

Yeah, right! And even if they did, what would they do - slap 'em on the wrist with a wet paper bag?

[fish]

I don't mind admitting I have been topping up recently -last on 26 august at 1.19 .
Had to suffer the Wrath of my wife when she found it on my margin lending account a few days later otherwise would have been topping up further last week .
Simply you dont have to be on the nzo board to workout how undervalued this share is .
I will be at the AGM to congratulate the board as to how well they have steered this company through difficult times .
The future looks very profitable to me .

[digger]

I don't mind admitting I have been topping up recently -last on 26 august at 1.19 .
Had to suffer the Wrath of my wife when she found it on my margin lending account a few days later otherwise would have been topping up further last week .
Simply you dont have to be on the nzo board to workout how undervalued this share is .
I will be at the AGM to congratulate the board as to how well they have steered this company through difficult times .
The future looks very profitable to me .

Must meet up with you Fish for the first time. Still considering your idea that we have a remit from the AGM to ban selling PIKE.The rosy future you see for NZO will get a quick shot in the arm if PIKE is sold but just a yeaR OR SO AFTER IT WILL BE SEEN AS A GIVE AWAY.One of mother natures earthquakes is about the only big problem standing in the way of a great future for that mine.Seems a shame to even think about selling after soooo long in getting developing under way with 20 to 40 years in front of it.

The buy back is interesting.Will certainly allow small holders to get out at a better deal than otherwise and give the holding NZO investers the benifit of the cheap buys.Watch this space.

[the machine]

I do recall that Tap Oil had a heap of cash and embarked upon a very expensive share buyback , cancel script.
This burnt an absolete heap of cash and today the sp is lower than what Tap Oil paid.

NZ should take care to NOT THROW TO MUCH MONEY AT IT

The buyback has helped sp by 5c today.

I am on the record as wanting to buy 30,000 nzo because shares were cheap at about 90c au [and the divi]

Am now leaning towards not selling 280,000 kas @ 11c to achieve that, instead will hang onto kas as they have a heap of upside.

If I miss out on divi and end up paying aud$1.20 for nzo then so be it - but I might only have to sell 200,000 kas as well.

Patience is required.

M

[notie]

woow, what a bold move from nzog....this will really get the shares going.

Really is this the best they can come up with? what about using the money to find oil?

What a waste

[winner69]

woow, what a bold move from nzog....this will really get the shares going.

Really is this the best they can come up with? what about using the money to find oil?

What a waste

Does seem a desperate move

So they take in heaps of yoor money at $1.50 ... well done guys giving them this .... and then they use some of this to buy their own shares back .... seems like you guys would have been better off not giving them the $1.50 and saving it for a rainy day and buying sahres at $1.20 yourself .... but it has given NZO the warm fuzzies in holding so much cash eh

[dsurf]

woow, what a bold move from nzog....this will really get the shares going.

Really is this the best they can come up with? what about using the money to find oil?

What a waste

Totally disagree - It is about an insurance policy that will keep unwanted large predators away. It also means that the pie gets bigger for current shareholders who keep the same stake. Guess you were short before the announcement as I struggle to see any other reason to want NZO to trade at NAV with PRC only just producing

[digger]

Does seem a desperate move

So they take in heaps of yoor money at $1.50 ... well done guys giving them this .... and then they use some of this to buy their own shares back .... seems like you guys would have been better off not giving them the $1.50 and saving it for a rainy day and buying sahres at $1.20 yourself .... but it has given NZO the warm fuzzies in holding so much cash eh

Winner69 you must be having a bad reasoning day as i can not remember reading any of your previous posts and wondering what pile of sand IS HIS HEAD STUCK IN. I bought heads at 1-50 and last year shares in lue at 1-60 but i do not in any way now blame NZO if they can pick up shares at 1-20 and cancell them. It is a different world. We had 4 chances to strick it rich and the world finanical system is not sure if it is coming or going.All that does leave NZO in a new ball game and it has to be picked up from here and carried forward. In hindsight you are however correct in saying we at 1-50 and 1-60 would have been better off not taking up the offer,and it hurts.
I fully support NZO putting this small floor under the price and moving on. Lets talk about the future instead of just being wise about the past,or can you point to where last year at this time you said exactally these comments.
The future lies now with our intension with our PIKE holding as well as drilling and acquistions.What do we do here and i mean before the event not that perfect hindsight stuff that we all get a year after all the dust has settled.

[pietrade]

Thank you Digger for another intelligent response to some confused thinking. Like rust, it seems the 'What if...' brigade never sleeps. .

[Hoop]

Does seem a desperate move

So they take in heaps of yoor money at $1.50 ... well done guys giving them this .... and then they use some of this to buy their own shares back .... seems like you guys would have been better off not giving them the $1.50 and saving it for a rainy day and buying shares at $1.20 yourself .... but it has given NZO the warm fuzzies in holding so much cash eh

Agree about the desperate move..especially to cancel the bought back shares...why not just keep them as treasury stock, at least it is classed as an asset and keeps NZO warchest at the optimum level.

Yep they theoretically could gain 25c profit out of their faithful shareholders if they buy up now......but the tide has just changed...I think NZO share price just needed an excuse to change direction and any excuse will do. TA wise the share is a buy... the downtrend rot ended (touch wood..**) on the 2 Sept with the gap up after the engulfing pattern the day before + other indicators...Hmmm....Did TA pick up insider news leak activity before the 6 Sept news release to shareholders or was it just coincidence?.
Also the shareprice gapped up to break the resistance /now support at $1.19 on the same day (2 sept).

If NZO develops an uptrend, NZO management may have to buy quickly and some how try not to artificially push the price up further or it could turn out to be another expensive and unnecessary depletion of its warchest if they are still buying in at say $1.80.

**The last time NZO broke the downtrend line was on 14/15 June ...but sadly it was a bull trap...

[777]

Can't see them buying back any if the price rises to a level they are happy with.
Their statement states "the intention to buy-back up to 8,500,000 shares" , so no compulsion to buy any at all.

[Hoop]

Can't see them buying back any if the price rises to a level they are happy with.
Their statement states "the intention to buy-back up to 8,500,000 shares" , so no compulsion to buy any at all.

True 777 they also don't mention a price range either...so at what price are they happy to keep buying in at....remember the NTA is $1.14

[Logen Ninefingers]

NZO SP has a fair wind in it's sails now. Share buy-back / up-coming divie / PRC ramping up to full production.

[LJB]

Does seem a desperate move

So they take in heaps of yoor money at $1.50 ... well done guys giving them this .... and then they use some of this to buy their own shares back .... seems like you guys would have been better off not giving them the $1.50 and saving it for a rainy day and buying sahres at $1.20 yourself .... but it has given NZO the warm fuzzies in holding so much cash eh

What's with the use of the term "THEY"? As shareholders WE have a share in this company and proportional voting rights to elect OUR representatives to the board. I am realistic, as a tiny shareholder, of my ability to have any say at all but I do find the "them and us'' nature of some posts irrational. We didn't give THEM anything. We invested in a company. If we don't like how OUR representatives on the board govern the company or how OUR managers perform, then we sell our shares or choose not to invest in the first place.

[fabs]

Yes i too have reservations spending 8Mil. to keep the SP at around $ 1,20 i have no fear of a take over, as long the co. is under the stewardship of T.R let the SP rise & fall.
Should the NZO holding in PRC be worth 200-250 mil. or more-- Sell, but first get some lessons and learn what to do with it.

[winner69]

What's with the use of the term "THEY"? As shareholders WE have a share in this company and proportional voting rights to elect OUR representatives to the board. I am realistic, as a tiny shareholder, of my ability to have any say at all but I do find the "them and us'' nature of some posts irrational. We didn't give THEM anything. We invested in a company. If we don't like how OUR representatives on the board govern the company or how OUR managers perform, then we sell our shares or choose not to invest in the first place.

Touch a raw nerve or something

OK - so you INVESTED in YOUR company by handing over $1.50 a share ... presumably for YOUR company to invest in something to create great wealth. Now YOUR elected representatives on the Board agree to invests that money by buying back, maybe not YOUR shares, but YOUR FELLOW SHAREHOLDERS shares.

Still doesn't make too much sense to me

[LJB]

The 'market' will decide whether it makes sense or not but I guess that doesn't mean that the market is rational.
No raw nerve. Never invested at $1.50.
Just being a p***k and making point about "them and us" point of view that I don't agree with as a philosophy (except with GPG!!!!). Not meant as personal attack.

[Planetram]

Hello all, when is ex dividend date for nzo? assuming there is div this year. Thanks

[Lion]

Hello all, when is ex dividend date for nzo? assuming there is div this year. Thanks

http://www.nzog.net/ tells you

What do people think of the new Morningstar report out? I see it's copyright 2009, that might explain why it seems so out of date.

Whew, and sharebrokers wonder why the public are losing interest in investing in shares.
My old dad used to say, do the opposite of what financial advisors say and you won't go far wrong.

[castelinop]

5 cps div, thats good enough for me.

[Mr Tommy]

NZO is listed on Direct Broking as XD
Isnt the ex date for the dividend friday 17 Sept ?

[Lion]

NZO is listed on Direct Broking as XD
Isnt the ex date for the dividend friday 17 Sept ?
Yes, that's what the company website says.
But today's 5c drop doesn't seem to have any other reason.
What did the sp finish at yesterday, anyway? I thought it was 132, but this morning it seems like it was 127. Late trade or what?

[KS]

NZO is listed on Direct Broking as XD
Isnt the ex date for the dividend friday 17 Sept ?

NZX: Change to ex-rec period
19 August 2010. NZX advises that due to the change to the "ex-rec" period which becomes effective following the cutover to the new settlement system, the Ex Date will be changing for all corporate actions with a Record Date
that falls on or after 1 September 2010.
The change to the "ex-rec" regime provides that the Ex Date will be two Business Days before the Record Date (three full trading days before "books close"). This removes the requirement to adjust trades.

[Mr Tommy]

NZX: Change to ex-rec period
19 August 2010. NZX advises that due to the change to the "ex-rec" period which becomes effective following the cutover to the new settlement system, the Ex Date will be changing for all corporate actions with a Record Date
that falls on or after 1 September 2010.
The change to the "ex-rec" regime provides that the Ex Date will be two Business Days before the Record Date (three full trading days before "books close"). This removes the requirement to adjust trades.

Thanks for that KS

[digger]

NZX: Change to ex-rec period
19 August 2010. NZX advises that due to the change to the "ex-rec" period which becomes effective following the cutover to the new settlement system, the Ex Date will be changing for all corporate actions with a Record Date
that falls on or after 1 September 2010.
The change to the "ex-rec" regime provides that the Ex Date will be two Business Days before the Record Date (three full trading days before "books close"). This removes the requirement to adjust trades.

Thanks for explaining that one KS. It is new to me i thought it was 17th this coming friday.

[skid]

NZO sp 1.26

[digger]

Thanks for explaining that one KS. It is new to me i thought it was 17th this coming friday.

KS ,this new date puts the determination of weighted average price for investers taking up the DRP in some question.Here is what the NZO report says.
"The number of shares will be calculated at a 2.5% discount to the weighted average sale price for shares sold on each of the first five business days immediately following the dividend record date."
Has the dividend record date now changed to start today. I had assumed it would be calculated on the weighted average of all next week. That is from 20th to 24th/
How do you and others see it?

[neopoleII]

im still trying to figure out why the exercise price of the millions of new 1cent shares given to staff ....... to be cashed in sept 2012 is only $1.44.
does that mean in 2012 they expect the sp to in the $1.40 to $1.50 range or maybe the $2.00 range and give a profit of 60cents x 1 million shares.
either way...... management has the potential to reap 100s of thousands of dollars from 1 cent shares or just try and achieve $1.44 in 2 years time.
in the meantime......... share holders get a 5cent divi and have to pay full price today for a share that management values at $1.44 in 2 years.

my question is.......... where is the incentive for the shareholders?
why back a co for a $1.44 in 2 years, or see management cash in big time if $2 a share is achieved......... at the shareholders risk and expense.

dont seem right to me......... but as i said before, i out very shortly.

FPA is looking very promising now......... 17 year invention coming on line.

i wonder how much influence TR still has on the board of NZO and PRC.

he has never like giving to the shareholders that supported him.

[fish]

Hi Digger,

The way I read it is that the ex date has been brought 3 days forward by nzx from the record date set by the nzo board . It is the record date set by the board that determines when the weighted average calculation commences-ie should still be the weighted average of next weeks trades . I am actually hoping the sp drops further next week !

[RRR]

Good question N2. I couldn't figure out either due to my limited knowledge. It is a huge number of shares resulting in dilution. If the company wants to reward the key workers why dont they give them cash and make it mandatory for them to have some shares to align their interest with shareholders. It is a flawed system and prone to abuse. Some companies are even resorting to fully underwritten DRP's-meaning they dont pay any cash at all and some clever investment banking firms get the shares at a discount underwriting DRPs. Looks like retail investors can't win in the world of big boys!! And NZO are buying back shares!! Does it make sense!!! Experienced investors can explain it better..

[stanace]

Hi Digger,

The way I read it is that the ex date has been brought 3 days forward by nzx from the record date set by the nzo board . It is the record date set by the board that determines when the weighted average calculation commences-ie should still be the weighted average of next weeks trades . I am actually hoping the sp drops further next week !

Does this mean i can sell all my shares tomorrow, and still get the dividend. Sorry to be so dumb, but I thought I would have to wait till next week to sell them and still qualify for the dividend.

[fish]

Does this mean i can sell all my shares tomorrow, and still get the dividend. Sorry to be so dumb, but I thought I would have to wait till next week to sell them and still qualify for the dividend.

They went ex-dividend on wednesday so you could have sold themyesterday and still got the dividend .
Its going to be a very interesting week watching the trading-i suspect we might see the buyback begin so that those of us who have opted for shares in lieu of dividend dont get them too cheaply

[fabs]

Good point Fish
So last Wed. the share price, having gone ex. div. to = $ 1.27
and everything being more or less equal, one should be able to expect the price, after the end of the coming week to average ideally $ 1.27 or under [ VERY GOOD ] the more the s/p is over $ 1.27 [ VERY BAD ] the more it is obvious that the S/H collectively are treated as big Mushrooms, as championed by Balance.

THIS COULD BE THE BIG CREDIBILITY TEST OF CO.s MANAGEMENT.

[KS]

KS ,this new date puts the determination of weighted average price for investers taking up the DRP in some question.Here is what the NZO report says.
"The number of shares will be calculated at a 2.5% discount to the weighted average sale price for shares sold on each of the first five business days immediately following the dividend record date."
Has the dividend record date now changed to start today. I had assumed it would be calculated on the weighted average of all next week. That is from 20th to 24th/
How do you and others see it?

Hi Digger,

I agree with Fish's answer.
The weighted average sale price for shares sold on each of the first five business days immediately following the dividend record date (NOT the EX date) is used, then discounted by 2.5%.
Perhaps in future the EX DIVI date could be used as start date to give a true picture of the share price immediately after dividend. This would also save 3 days in the process.

[blockhead]

Annual Report out today and sp is up 06c, whats in the report we didn't know ? just buying a few shares for the buyback wouldn't bump them up 06c.

Although closer inspection shows no buyers of any consequence after $1.24 so perhaps there was another buyback around close tonight. Mmmnn artificially bumping the price up, will it stay there though ??

[sideline]

Annual Report out today and sp is up 06c, whats in the report we didn't know ? just buying a few shares for the buyback wouldn't bump them up 06c.

Although closer inspection shows no buyers of any consequence after $1.24 so perhaps there was another buyback around close tonight. Mmmnn artificially bumping the price up, will it stay there though ??

Disagree, blocky. SP went up around 2pm on pretty big volume of a few hundred k in a short amount of time.

[blockhead]

What I'm thinking Sideline is the buyer could have been NZO, 2pm and 5pm ?? Makes sure the price is up and also makes sure I don't get too many on the DRP

[fabs]

Easy fix, just ask for more dosh from NZO, they got plenty and do not know what to do with it and are on the look out for money spinners, overlooked by the rest of the market.

[KS]

What I'm thinking Sideline is the buyer could have been NZO, 2pm and 5pm ?? Makes sure the price is up and also makes sure I don't get too many on the DRP

Is buyback allowed / legal during this week, while the DRP share price is determined?
As buyback can influence the share price (upwards, as there is no "sell-back"), should it be suspended for this week?
What are people's thoghts on this?

[digger]

Is buyback allowed / legal during this week, while the DRP share price is determined?
As buyback can influence the share price (upwards, as there is no "sell-back"), should it be suspended for this week?
What are people's thoghts on this?


Agree the market along should set the DRP price.

[Sehnsucht888]

According to disclosures they have only bought a tiny parcel at 1.25... So buy backs haven't been a cause for any of the price jumps - unless they are late in a disclosure..
Good timing for Pike bad news though - keeping the price in check this week hopefully.

[digger]

Is buyback allowed / legal during this week, while the DRP share price is determined?
As buyback can influence the share price (upwards, as there is no "sell-back"), should it be suspended for this week?
What are people's thoghts on this?

KS,on thinking about this a bit more my thoughts are that whether it is legal or not is not the point. By offering all NZO shareholders a DRP a agreement of trust as been formed between investers and the company. If now the directors after the agreement order a buyback they have broken that trust regardless of the legality. This problem of having a buyback in this week set aside for determining the DRP would not exist if prior knowledge of a buyback had been made immediately available.All investers could then weight up what they wanted to do in full information.
For NZO it is important to keep trust with investers at all times.Remember there are many years ahead and the future is just tooo important to play around with getting away with this this time
Let the market decide the DRP value with NZO being completely neutral and more importantly being seen as completely neutral.

[KS]

KS,on thinking about this a bit more my thoughts are that whether it is legal or not is not the point. By offering all NZO shareholders a DRP a agreement of trust as been formed between investers and the company. If now the directors after the agreement order a buyback they have broken that trust regardless of the legality. This problem of having a buyback in this week set aside for determining the DRP would not exist if prior knowledge of a buyback had been made immediately available.All investers could then weight up what they wanted to do in full information.
For NZO it is important to keep trust with investers at all times.Remember there are many years ahead and the future is just tooo important to play around with getting away with this this time
Let the market decide the DRP value with NZO being completely neutral and more importantly being seen as completely neutral.

Digger, thank you for your perspective re trust.
However, buyback is operating, see this morning's notice of Monday's buyback.

NZO, is shareholders' trust important to you?

[Sehnsucht888]

Well, the second announcement is only for 3173 shares.. so again not really that material - less than 1 % of the volume traded.

Remember that it is JBWere that has been told to acquire the shares for NZO, they aren't doing it themselves. JBWere should also be aware that they can't acquarie shares pushing it up significantly. They also have till mid next year to acquire them, so there is plenty of time to get them.

[KS]

Well, the second announcement is only for 3173 shares.. so again not really that material - less than 1 % of the volume traded.

Remember that it is JBWere that has been told to acquire the shares for NZO, they aren't doing it themselves. JBWere should also be aware that they can't acquarie shares pushing it up significantly. They also have till mid next year to acquire them, so there is plenty of time to get them.

The buyback quantity may be small, but it appears to be a conflict of interest.
Does NZSX have rules covering this situation?

[blockhead]

I'm surprised such a small buyback is holding the price up, 3173 shares is a miniscule number, maybe NZO is holding up on its own merits.

Certainly is a conflict of interest in my view, turn it round the other way, if NZO wanted to depress the sp for some reason all they would need to do is sell a few off to depress the price each day. Us minnows don't seem to have much control ??

[Sehnsucht888]

The buyback quantity may be small, but it appears to be a conflict of interest.
Does NZSX have rules covering this situation?

Well, I was assuming there would be rules around it. More in relation to moving the Price significantly though, not sure about when a DRP is in play. Hopefully the broker doing it is smart enough to know not to move the price at this time, but.....

Found the ASX rule on this, but not the NZX one yet, but maybe the wild west doesn't have any....
http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/pdflib.nsf/LookupByFileName/rg101.pdf/$file/rg101.pdf

The buy-back price must not exceed the ASX price ceiling—i.e. the buyback
price must not be more than 5% above the average of the market price
for interests (or stapled securities, if applicable), where the average is
calculated over the last five days on which sales in the interests were
recorded before the day on which the purchase is made.

- So they can move the price a bit if they feel like it...

Buying yesterday made good sense for them.. It was the low of the day, so a good pick for a buy back trade

[notie]

When nzog announces it will get into the north sea-now that will be interesting.
wells cost 30-40 million pounds, so nzog's 80 million kiwi isn't going far.

another hair brained scheme dreamed up by the company that has given its investors a big money pit called pike which will never fulfill its much hyped expectations.

[Mr Tommy]

When nzog announces it will get into the north sea-now that will be interesting.
wells cost 30-40 million pounds, so nzog's 80 million kiwi isn't going far.

another hair brained scheme dreamed up by the company that has given its investors a big money pit called pike which will never fulfill its much hyped expectations.

Are you privy to some inside info Notie?

If a well costs 30m GBP, thats obviously 100%.
So a 10% share is only 3m GBP, about $6m NZD
And maybe with all the experience there, better than 1 in 10 odds ???

[Chris Roberts]

It's Notie so hardly worth responding to - but for the record, NZOG is not currently reviewing any North Sea opportunities.

[geezy]

can i LIKE Chris Robert's post?

[Lion]

can i LIKE Chris Robert's post?
Yeah, go on. I do.

[the machine]

today I bought all the shares traded on asx, 30,000 of the little suckers
swapped for 150,000 kas with spending money left over.

M

[notie]

Nice work nzog bailing out Pike to the tune of another 25 million. I guess the nzog investors are happy to see the war chest being used to prop up a failing coal mine.

This doesn't leave much to buy any other E&P assets.

going nowhere fast

[bung5]

PRC is just coming into production and this money is only lent untilt the end of the year earning 13% + 600k establishment fees .. a lot better than sitting in the bank at 4%.

[boysy]

if they actually can pay it back dependent on getting another facility from another lender before the due date.

[Mr Tommy]

Nice work nzog bailing out Pike to the tune of another 25 million. I guess the nzog investors are happy to see the war chest being used to prop up a failing coal mine.

This doesn't leave much to buy any other E&P assets.

going nowhere fast

So Notie, if you had $25m sitting in the bank, and could get 13% for the next 2.5 months, what would you do.

[dsurf]

if they actually can pay it back dependent on getting another facility from another lender before the due date.

Should not be a problem as long as there is a reasonable pile of coal stockpiled for collateral. Also NZO know this project is close to actually delivering reasonable amounts of coal so they can easily extend the deadline if needed.

[notie]

So Notie, if you had $25m sitting in the bank, and could get 13% for the next 2.5 months, what would you do.

Well the took the money from shareholder to buy into oil and gas investments, not to drop it down a coal mine. Given nzog involvement in setting pike up I would think it has a high chance of failing.

So no guarantee they will even get the money back.

From what I hear even if nzog tried to pull a decent E&P investment deal together then certain members of the BOD would not give it the OK.

[Unicorn]

So no guarantee they will even get the money back.


PRC has a market cap of around $460 million, assets worth well in excess of $200 million, and minimal debt. NZO is lending less than $25 million, for a very short term (and under very favourable terms).

If you think there is a significant possibility that NZO funds are not safe under those circumstances, then I think you should find some avenue of investment other than the sharemarket. You are obviously well out of your depth here.

[Mr Tommy]

The short-term facility has an interest rate of 13%, establishment and
monitoring fees totaling $600,000 and is repayable in full on 15 December
2010.

So $25m at 13% for 2.5 months earns them about $677,000
Plus the $600,000 fee
Total nearly $1.3 million for just 2.5 months
Thats about 25%, Pike could have used its credit card.

[shasta]

The short-term facility has an interest rate of 13%, establishment and
monitoring fees totaling $600,000 and is repayable in full on 15 December
2010.

So $25m at 13% for 2.5 months earns them about $677,000
Plus the $600,000 fee
Total nearly $1.3 million for just 2.5 months
Thats about 25%, Pike could have used its credit card.

Quite clearly Pike had no other options to raise the $25m, as Pike's focus should always be to look after there shareholders, not NZO's.

13% is way more than any of the finance companies were offering, but is this sufficient reward for what i see as significant risk?

Pike won't even generate $25m revenue between now & the repayment date, so what's the likelihood, Pike is unable to refinance the $25m?

I guess NZO has the funds spare & can probably extend the terms of the loan, given they are earning interest at more than twice the going rate of the big banks, but this tells me NZO have no better use of those funds for the remainder of the year.

[fabs]

The new facility is value creating for NZOG and is a continuation
of our strategy of managing this investment in the interests of our
shareholders."
So the constant rant and spiel about looking for investment opportunity was all a long a sham , more concerned with propping up this venture, which always was obvious a long way out to knowledgeable people in the industry, to be fraught with problems due to lack of experience. on top of the usual teething difficulty's with mining.
5 or 6 years ago at an NCO AGM the much more successful oil man and owner of Greymouth Petroleum stormed out as the then Management would have no bar of his comment on PRC as compered to concentrating on oil.
Are the chicken slowly coming home to roost?

[sheepy]

Pike wont use 25 million as Peter Whittal says in todays national business review. But it is available for them if they need it. So your interest and workings are worthless. And I dont think they will be drawing out 25 million in one hit today.

[notie]

Pike wont use 25 million as Peter Whittal says in todays national business review. But it is available for them if they need it. So your interest and workings are worthless. And I dont think they will be drawing out 25 million in one hit today.

no, they will use this 25 mill, then nzog will bail them out again when the next bill comes along.
The whole pike river design and start up was a product of nzog and Gordon Ward who had held a senior role at this company. This speaks volumes about whole competent nzog are.

have nzog got any money left to invest in any reasonably sized oil or gas project? I think not. So from now on they are relying on their bad investments in Pike River and Pan Pacific.

[fish]

no, they will use this 25 mill, then nzog will bail them out again when the next bill comes along.
The whole pike river design and start up was a product of nzog and Gordon Ward who had held a senior role at this company. This speaks volumes about whole competent nzog are.

have nzog got any money left to invest in any reasonably sized oil or gas project? I think not. So from now on they are relying on their bad investments in Pike River and Pan Pacific.

Not only have they got plenty banked but also good ongoing income from kupe and tui .

[fish]

good to see Asia and Australia doing so well . Price of oil is rising nicely .Digger is forcasting Tapis at $90 at the end of this year-could easily be a little more

edit-tapis is $88 today

[digger]

good to see Asia and Australia doing so well . Price of oil is rising nicely .Digger is forcasting Tapis at $90 at the end of this year-could easily be a little more

edit-tapis is $88 today

Hi Fish,
I said 100 for Tapis at year end not 90. Will stick with it.
Been reading a lot lately about more warnings about peak oil from some previously non beleivers.Concern for the future will slowly start to have an effect do to stock piling well before the event. actually i stockpiled 1400 lts of deisel yesterday to save to sa about 90 dollars. In a year or two this could be a daily problem for the whole world.
Now what is the drilling plan for this year? What has changed to make it more successful---or i mean less a total failure.

[fish]

Hi Fish,
I said 100 for Tapis at year end not 90. Will stick with it.
Been reading a lot lately about more warnings about peak oil from some previously non beleivers.Concern for the future will slowly start to have an effect do to stock piling well before the event. actually i stockpiled 1400 lts of deisel yesterday to save to sa about 90 dollars. In a year or two this could be a daily problem for the whole world.
Now what is the drilling plan for this year? What has changed to make it more successful---or i mean less a total failure.
So many questions to be asked.
I suspect with the price of oil being so depressed by pessimistic forcasters on world growth that they chose the longshots first .They should have more seismics and better modellings this year .
Hope you get a chance to ask searching questions .
I have taken time off this year to attend the agm but havnt been invited yet

[tim23]

Well Fish you should have been invited by now - I was about 3 days ago?

[friedegg]

no, they will use this 25 mill, then nzog will bail them out again when the next bill comes along.
The whole pike river design and start up was a product of nzog and Gordon Ward who had held a senior role at this company. This speaks volumes about whole competent nzog are.

have nzog got any money left to invest in any reasonably sized oil or gas project? I think not. So from now on they are relying on their bad investments in Pike River and Pan Pacific.
theyve got the money notie,probably about $150000 more from the time you posted actually,sure pike has been a disastrous mess the last few years but dont you think nzo may be poking its money into this right when the eggs are hatching?

[digger]

no, they will use this 25 mill, then nzog will bail them out again when the next bill comes along.
The whole pike river design and start up was a product of nzog and Gordon Ward who had held a senior role at this company. This speaks volumes about whole competent nzog are.

have nzog got any money left to invest in any reasonably sized oil or gas project? I think not. So from now on they are relying on their bad investments in Pike River and Pan Pacific.

Notie,
am sure it was you who about a year ago was telling us how short sighted NZO was for not buying into PPP when it was 35 cents.At that time PPP was in the 70 and 80 range. NZO will only ever get hindsight knowledge from you,but i guess they already know that.
I am one of the mushrooms that is happy to support monies into PIKE and will wait the production.

[notie]

deary me, Friday night and bewildered nzog shareholders drowning their sorrows

[Lion]

deary me, Friday night and bewildered nzog shareholders drowning their sorrows

Yes, it is dreadful notie. Dividend day, share price up, price of oil on the rise, Pike coal sales starting.
I just don't know how much more I can take.
Thanks for your sympathy.

[Sideshow Bob]

Quixk question....I got the divvie in the account today, but it works out at approx 4.78 cps, when I thought was a 5 cpos dividend. Any reason for this??

Thanks in advance.


Cheers
SSB

[Nitaa]

After a about a year in hibernation I have decided to rear my ugly head.

hmmmm... whats going on? NZOG cuaght between a rock and a hard place with Pike? No pun intended. It's been aparent for some time that financing Pike appears to be the lesser of 2 evils. Unfortuntately there are a select few that have a vesgted interest in Pike and in my opinion it's to the deterrment of nzo shareholders.

Apart from Kupe and tui which are fundamentally sound investments its hard to see where growth is going to come from. The next couple of years is likely to see more pain and a slow dwindling of cash reserves. Year 2014 might be the turning point perhaps.

On a side note, all the stars (wheres Yogi?) are lining up for a strong bull run this decade not seen since the 80's. Lets hope that nzo will be on the winning side of the ledger.

p.s. sold out of nzo a year ago

[sideline]

Quixk question....I got the divvie in the account today, but it works out at approx 4.78 cps, when I thought was a 5 cpos dividend. Any reason for this??

Thanks in advance.


Cheers
SSB


Bob, the dividend is 'fully imputed' but the top company tax rate is only 30%.
There is a requirement to top that tax up to the personal tax rate of 33%, so of that 5c some went
off to the tax man as resident withholding tax. Depending on your marginal tax rate you
might be able to claim the RWT back from IRD in your tax return.

[notie]

Notie,
am sure it was you who about a year ago was telling us how short sighted NZO was for not buying into PPP when it was 35 cents.At that time PPP was in the 70 and 80 range. NZO will only ever get hindsight knowledge from you,but i guess they already know that.
I am one of the mushrooms that is happy to support monies into PIKE and will wait the production.

NZOG shares listed for 50c in 1981. Now 29 years later they are trading at $1.30. Not much in the way of capital growth and I'd have been better off (even with the recent dividends) leaving the money in a low interest bank account!

NZOG is going nowhere with pike hanging around its neck, and even when it clears that it still has no upside

[Sideshow Bob]

Bob, the dividend is 'fully imputed' but the top company tax rate is only 30%.
There is a requirement to top that tax up to the personal tax rate of 33%, so of that 5c some went
off to the tax man as resident withholding tax. Depending on your marginal tax rate you
might be able to claim the RWT back from IRD in your tax return.

Thanks for the explanation sideline. Yeah, tax rate is 33%, so no luck being able to claim back.......

Cheers

[sideline]

Thanks for the explanation sideline. Yeah, tax rate is 33%, so no luck being able to claim back.......

Cheers

That depends: if your new marginal tax rate is 33% you are correct. If it was 33% before
the tax cuts then you could still get some back:
Because of the tax cuts your personal marginal rate would then be 30%, so the hybrid
(averaged) rate for this tax year 31.5%

[Beagle]

Interestingly, with the lower tax rate on $14,000-$48,000 of income now being only 17.5%, tax credits at 33% for some are quite a bonus for end of year tax returns.

On another note I see OIl prices are up substantially over the last couple of weeks...a taste of things to come ?

I see NZO took an option over another lot of Pike prodcution as part of the financial assistance package, has anyone tried to value what there production options are worth ?

[jeremyhowell]

Im with Direct Broking ltd, and I am still waiting for dividend payment. Checked all my accounts moments ago, and nothing is there. Would this be a notable problem, and should I contact DB or keep waiting?

[777]

Do both you guys have your dividend paid to DB or are talking at cross purposes. The portfolio page is not an account, merely a page for tracking your investments. Never use it myself.

Jeremy when did you buy your shares? The share registrar is who you contact about any dividend queries unless you bought in the 2 or 3 days after they went ex dividend then yes the broker is the one to contact.

[Odd Fellow]

Im with Direct Broking ltd, and I am still waiting for dividend payment. Checked all my accounts moments ago, and nothing is there. Would this be a notable problem, and should I contact DB or keep waiting?

If you are with Direct Broking your shares will be with Computershare, they will pay the Divi into your
Bank Account and they will send you a Dividend Statement which you should have by now.

[777]

Go to

https://www-au.computershare.com/investor/default.asp?bhjs=1&fla=1&cc=NZ&lang=en

You can check all your details including dividends paid. It is irrelevant which broker you use.

[jeremyhowell]

I have never supplied computershare with my bank details and I have only received mail from them once, wish I could sort everything out now but the problem is I am on holiday and my FIN number and everything is at home, I was hoping to receive the divi then just sell the shares from here, which I can easily. Would I be able to do anything from here without my FIN number, and I am assuming the problem is I have to give CS my bank details? I have had the shares for a few months.

Thanks for the help.

[jeremyhowell]

I didnt sign up for the DRP, so I am expecting a cash divi.

[bung5]

you will recieve a cheque in the mail

[Rabbi]

you will recieve a cheque in the mail

or a bundle of cheap shares:)...

NZO has good cash flow with Kupe and Tui but the Taranaki Basin is is hard and expensive drilling. I went back over the drilling programme in the last ten years and was surprised at the number of duds they drilled.
I can't help thinking they might have been better making a takeover of an Aussie junior with a low SP but which had promising permits.
Taranaki Basin is very high risk and AWE has been completely hammered.
Then again next year might be the year.

[notie]

they are going to blow all their warchest in the North Sea.

[fabs]

Correction Notie; PIKE!

[Mr Tommy]

they are going to blow all their warchest in the North Sea.

Hey Notie, Chris Roberts has already replied to you on this....

It's Notie so hardly worth responding to - but for the record, NZOG is not currently reviewing any North Sea opportunities.

[dsurf]

Hey Notie, Chris Roberts has already replied to you on this....

It's Notie so hardly worth responding to - but for the record, NZOG is not currently reviewing any North Sea opportunities.

Notie - You seem to under the impression that NZO only has money going out? Kupe alone brings in cash (not profit) of about 70mill pa so they have approx 50mill (assuming head office at 20mill pa) to "blow" & the bank balance will stand still. If you want a conservative investment - try the property trusts or something else supposedly stable - TEL was prometed as a "monopoly with huge cash generating ability" for a long time & has succeeded in losing 75% of it's value so "blowing a cash hoard is all relative"

[fabs]

Have any NZO S/H woken up to what is happening with PRC yet ???

[friedegg]

Have any NZO S/H woken up to what is happening with PRC yet ???

no whats your logic?prc is a coal mine and nzo are into oil and gas

[fabs]

Not so much a case of my logic, more a question of where have you been for the last 12 months, to come up with a comment like that!
CHEERS

[Wilkins_Micawber]

no whats your logic?prc is a coal mine and nzo are into oil and gas

It's like this .. if you own a house and the house goes up in value then so does your net worth. Since NZO owns 30% of PRC, when PRCs value goes up then so does the value of NZO (to the tune of about 1 cent for every 3 cents PRC goes up).

[fabs]

Given that they prove to have a consistent div. policy established, resumed full production on Tui after 3 months of maintenance, also now established, or rapidly attaining top output in Kupe, free of dept, much enhanced oil price, a healthy war chest, possibly another div. cum. April and a general firming across the S/M, which all have
contributed to the increase in the present S/P, where is the supposed 1 in 3 cent increase from the not inconsiderable change of fortune of PRC come in, which rose from 85-90c to $ 1.23 in the same period ?

[Beagle]

Given that they prove to have a consistent div. policy established, resumed full production on Tui after 3 months of maintenance, also now established, or rapidly attaining top output in Kupe, free of dept, much enhanced oil price, a healthy war chest, possibly another div. cum. April and a general firming across the S/M, which all have
contributed to the increase in the present S/P, where is the supposed 1 in 3 cent increase from the not inconsiderable change of fortune of PRC come in, which rose from 85-90c to $ 1.23 in the same period ?

Share price has gone up from around $1.16 to present price of about $1.32 in the last month or thereabouts despite paying a 5 cent divvy, so actual increase is about 21 cents if you'd timed it well.

N.Z. dollar is up around U.S. 75 cents so that mitigates at least to a certain extent N.Z. dollar receipts from oil sales. Having said that I think there's probably a little bit of scepticism at least in my mind anyway.... regarding the recent leap in PRC's price really on very little meaningful information.

NZO has a much stronger balance sheet and is a better bet in my opinion than Pike.

[sheepy]

Better Bet, well opinons vary. With Pike they know whats there. NZO might never strike another well, Pike might be their saviour one day. And we all know that NZO invented Pike and that they would be in a burning heap if it wasnt for NZO. But oil exploration is risky business, and yes they have done well to get where they are. I dont think there will be too many people retiring on NZO shares tho. Pike well lets wait and see. Disc hold both. but i see more potential in Pike.

[Arbitrage]

Two productive oil wells (and the price of oil is increasing) and a coal mine starting to get going. Not a bad investment.

[notie]

Two productive oil wells (and the price of oil is increasing) and a coal mine starting to get going. Not a bad investment.

Oh dear, more nzog money likely to disappear down this black hole come Dec.

[Logen Ninefingers]

It's a shame to see NZO dragged down by PRC.
PRC needed to get their A into G over twelve months ago to avoid this current debacle. Instead NZO didn't get rid of their 'inside man' Gordon Ward, who fiddled while Rome burned.

Only themselves to blame? Yup.

[bung5]

NZO would of been more than aware of the current forecast for PRC and does not affect the full production rates of the mine in the long term

[notie]

Long term predication is Pike will fail. They won't be able to get the amount of coal out of the mine they have said they will. When Pike fails nzog will lose a whole bunch of money and their share price will drop to 70c. My predication and I'm sure many of you will disagree, but this is a realistic assessment

[tim23]

Whats a predication? and I guess you would want to talk this stock down, whats your beef with NZOG -disgruntled ex-employee, greenie or what?

[dsurf]

Long term predication is Pike will fail. They won't be able to get the amount of coal out of the mine they have said they will. When Pike fails nzog will lose a whole bunch of money and their share price will drop to 70c. My predication and I'm sure many of you will disagree, but this is a realistic assessment

You are moving into long term predictions now sniper having seen all your short term predictions (no financing, no hydro, equipment failure , no coal mined) on Pike happen but be dealt with.

[neopoleII]

at least shareholder funds are being poured into the share buyback to prop up a share price being hammered by its sister company, which is also pouring shareholder funds down a drain.
luckily the miners managed to collect alot of it as a bonus.
all/most of the shareholders in nzo and prc seem to be getting creamed.

what is up with this management team?
or is it the board of directors?
and how can TR be an independant director? hes the founder, and i still recon hes the controler of everything that happens to nzo and prc.
he hand picks his board and they do as he says, which is why imho shareholders are getting creamed.

a truely independant director would look after nzo shareholders and make a public statement to at least express the boards views and intentions, and who voted for what, that way we as the shareholders can place responsibilty to those that cause the problems....... instead of the collective board with the dictator hiding in the middle.
we the shareholders vote for the board, we need to know who in the board is doing what.

so i recon anyway.

[Beagle]

The payment of $7,500 bonus's to PRC workers is a disgrace and a fundamental conflict of interest with shareholders interests.

PRC's performance by any realistic measure has been an absolute debacle. That the board approved payment of these bonus's to allready well paid mine workers shows how upsaide down management's thinking is in PRC. These guys are well paid, their performance has been woeful and they finally extracted 1000 tonnes of coal through hydro, big farkin deal. PRC is on its knees for cash yet again, how many times is it now ?

PRC has never ever met a target, EVER, so who in their right mind thinks they will meet their new substantially lower production target for the 2011 year and what realstic basis is there for saying hydro production will ever attain a rate of 80,000 tonnes per month ?

Why am I posting all this on the NZO thread, you may ask, well its simple, without NZO PRC are bankrupt, when are NZO management going to start holding PRC management accountable for the appalling manner in which they consistently fail to meet production targets ?

Do NZO as the major shareholder support a company paying employees bonus's despite missing the target date when the company is on its knees for cash yet again ?

I predicted earlier this month that there was no basis behind the move in PRC's price to $1.22, now I'm calling it a sub $1 share until, (if ever), PRC can prove they can extract the resource in a timely and efficient manner.

I reckon its high time NZO kicked some serious butt over at the coal mine.

[the machine]

with nzo buying and cancelling 100,000 shares this week it demostrates they have plenty of cash to support prc and still do what they want to do with the buyback and oother forward planning.

M

[Logen Ninefingers]

with nzo buying and cancelling 100,000 shares this week it demostrates they have plenty of cash to support prc and still do what they want to do with the buyback and oother forward planning.

M

Yeah, plenty of cash. They're probably swimming round in it in a huge silo like scrooge mcduck. Pour some cash into PRC, then some more, then some into buying back shares, then pour some into an unsuccessful drilling campaign, then some more into PRC. Loadsa money!!!!
With this careful strategy of looking after shareholder funds NZO are obviously set for a bumper year and a great future!!

[notie]

yer plenty of cash. At last count they had burned through 80 million of investors money in the war chest.
Not they are likely to have to bail out Pike again as they can't afford it to fail in the long term. Pike was an nzog baby and radford would never want to see it fail.

nzog have no idea of what to do with their money and have already seen good deals slip through their fingers as they failed to act fast enough.

[Bilo]

nzog have no idea of what to do with their money and have already seen good deals slip through their fingers as they failed to act fast enough.

I have been critical of NZOGs lack of investment / use of our cash over the last couple of years but I don't know of any of the prospective opportunities that may have been available to them that has turned up trumps either. Success with the drill bit has eluded many over that period. Their currency policy sucks but the Pike deal went a long way towards addressing that. Pike remains a very good asset for NZOG just not for purist junior oil investors. NZOG is OK just recent drilling activity and the share price doesn't reflect the potential. It still looks like a Ponzi scheme....

[the machine]

the quarterly loooks good as do the drilling plans shaping up for decision by jan

M

[Arbitrage]

Just back from the AGM. Good food which is always a plus. Only one disgruntled shareholder stood up and had a go at the company's poor performance compared to other oilers. Otherwise the usual inane questions, eg did the earthquake affect coal loading at Lyttelton?. Tony Radford was re elected. He handled the meeting very well.
No announcements we didn't know already. A bit of discussion about Pike but the feeling of the meeting seemed to be to hold the course.

[Mr Tommy]

the quarterly loooks good as do the drilling plans shaping up for decision by jan

M

Under the permit conditions a commitment to a well is required by January 2011, with the well to be drilled within the
following 12 months.

So unlikely to be any drilling for NOG this summer ?

[Beagle]

Under the permit conditions a commitment to a well is required by January 2011, with the well to be drilled within the
following 12 months.

So unlikely to be any drilling for NOG this summer ?

With their recent "success" rate who cares ?...besides, they've got a large black hole in Greymouth to pour their cash into in endless quantities and scrooge Mcduck can swim around in what's left, before shareholders get paid another whopping great dividend next year, note to self WTF am I doing still owning some of these shares ?? What's the catalyst to go up from here ???

[dsurf]

With their recent "success" rate who cares ?...besides, they've got a large black hole in Greymouth to pour their cash into in endless quantities and scrooge Mcduck can swim around in what's left, before shareholders get paid another whopping great dividend next year, note to self WTF am I doing still owning some of these shares ?? What's the catalyst to go up from here ???

You must be stoked then that NZO will be the "operator" of the soon to purchased exploration block in Canterbury.

[Bilo]

What's the catalyst to go up from here ???

1. NZO SP hasn't recovered from the GFC and sub USD50 oil just because NZ hasn't
2. The buy back
3. Tui production back on track
3. Kupe profitability isn't fully declared
4. Kaupokanui farm out and drill - not a great result so far but a majors involvement with a drill rig would be very positive
5. Pike coal shipments - each one will be a positive

[notie]

The presentation made by the ceo and chairman today followed the usual pattern of staying the course and screening opportunities while managing to burn 1 million/month on G&A.

1. NZO SP hasn't recovered because most astute investors aren't interested. They are listed on the ASX and most savy investors on that exchange see much better investments

2. The buy back-shows that NZOG have no idea at all at how to grow the company. Instead lets blow money on buying our shares back

3. Tui production back on track-Tui is now well onto a decline and no more wells are likely to be drilled until late 2011

3. Kupe profitability isn't fully declared-their only bright light, but nzog are only in for 15% and they are not the operator so have little control on their destiny

4. Kaupokanui farm out and drill -they have farmed out to a new Aus ipo that hasn't even listed and the farm in is capped at 3 million. Total well cost is likely to be 15 million, so they are 12 million short.

5. Pike coal shipments - Pike is a chain hanging around NZOG's neck. They have put so much money into it that they can't afford to see it fail. Expect a reserve write down in the near future and nzog will have to bail them out again and long term the mine will be a failure.

Pity no one asked them about nzog bid for horizon oil falling through due to nzog procrastinating and losing out on a very good deal

[Corporate]

Pity no one asked them about nzog bid for horizon oil falling through due to nzog procrastinating and losing out on a very good deal

Notie...good summary. What was this HZN deal? I never heard a whisper of it?

[notie]

last year. deal was on the table for nzog to buy out horizon, then the man at charge in nzog got the speed wobbles and pulled out. Horizon went on to sell assets in png for 50 million usd

[fabs]

Seems NZO,.
now that the AGM has passed has entered its usual 11 month hibernation mode.
Only consolation SBB stopping freefall of S/P.

[neopoleII]

instead of cancelling the shares, why not give them to shareholders?
this would be an incentive to hold on to shares, and maybe buy more, to get more free shares?

if this was the old days with paper certificates they would be burning share certificates.
not what i call good management of shareholder funds.
a larger divi would of helped more than cancelling shares as well.

oh well, im sure TR has a master plan.

[blockhead]

I think you are correct fabs, NZO is in a holding pattern for the forseeable future, the question is if you sell out, where would you be best to put the proceeds ???

[fabs]

Yes, should have followed my intuition 6-7 months ago just about any oz resource share would have been ok , a bit harder to pick at the moment.
What concerns me more than a bit is, that NZOs fortune very much tied for the next 12 months to the future of PRCs success, or dare i spell it out absence of.

[dsurf]

Yes, should have followed my intuition 6-7 months ago just about any oz resource share would have been ok , a bit harder to pick at the moment.
What concerns me more than a bit is, that NZOs fortune very much tied for the next 12 months to the future of PRCs success, or dare i spell it out absence of.

Talk again of oil at "100" next year after Saudi's? increased "acceptable" price range from between $70 & $80 to between $70 & $90. At $100 papers etc get excited & energy which has underperformed commodities in general will be back in focus. This would boost NZO also.

[Bilo]

Talk again of oil at "100" next year after Saudi's? increased "acceptable" price range from between $70 & $80 to between $70 & $90. At $100 papers etc get excited & energy which has underperformed commodities in general will be back in focus. This would boost NZO also.

Tapis oil has been at NZD120 for a while now and still holding. Helps to make producing NZ wells very profitable.

[mistymountain]

NZO has too of a much long term focus to be knocked by short term traders.

At these prices a sale is on.

[fish]

Yes, should have followed my intuition 6-7 months ago just about any oz resource share would have been ok , a bit harder to pick at the moment.
What concerns me more than a bit is, that NZOs fortune very much tied for the next 12 months to the future of PRCs success, or dare i spell it out absence of.

With hindsight we could all do better . Best to look at how undervalued nzo is and buy more if you can-i just have .

NZO now have a brilliant debt instrument over prc giving it greater powers over the running of the company as well as high interest . It is going to produce the goods -and possibly sooner than peter whitalls deliberately pessimistic predictions .When it is producing well nzo will sell it, shareholding and life-time coal rights at a great profit . I wouldnt be surprised if resource consent to mine all the coal isnt obtained to double the life of the mine

NZO has $145m in the bank . With the strong nz dollar investing in the drill bit will be much cheaper . A rig 2 years ago costing 500,000 a day can now be hired at 150000 . They have a lot of valuable knowledge and many good prospects .

Rising oil prices will ensure good returns on tui and kupe-and more wells possibly added in these fields .

NZO appears out of favour with the market and oversold because of this years unsuccessful drills and prc . To me this is a good time to start buying-the management are competent ,trustworthy and run a financially secure company with excellent cash flow and exciting prospects .

[mistymountain]

With hindsight we could all do better . Best to look at how undervalued nzo is and buy more if you can-i just have .

NZO now have a brilliant debt instrument over prc giving it greater powers over the running of the company as well as high interest . It is going to produce the goods -and possibly sooner than peter whitalls deliberately pessimistic predictions .When it is producing well nzo will sell it, shareholding and life-time coal rights at a great profit . I wouldnt be surprised if resource consent to mine all the coal isnt obtained to double the life of the mine

NZO has $145m in the bank . With the strong nz dollar investing in the drill bit will be much cheaper . A rig 2 years ago costing 500,000 a day can now be hired at 150000 . They have a lot of valuable knowledge and many good prospects .

Rising oil prices will ensure good returns on tui and kupe-and more wells possibly added in these fields .

NZO appears out of favour with the market and oversold because of this years unsuccessful drills and prc . To me this is a good time to start buying-the management are competent ,trustworthy and run a financially secure company with excellent cash flow and exciting prospects .

Add in Peak Oil over the next 24 months to 5 years and NZO will seem like an absolute bargain at today's prices.

[fabs]

OK
mistymountain & fish, lets see what the next 12 months have in store.
Meanwhile how into it you two, i got more than enough will buy more when the drilling starts, management seems happy to saunter along enjoying the fruit of their very hard work.
What is it again 1/2 mil. for the boss per an. no need to hurry

[Bilo]

OK
, management seems happy to saunter along enjoying the fruit of their very hard work.
What is it again 1/2 mil. for the boss per an. no need to hurry

David Salisbury must be on notice that expectations have not been met - the directors just said good bye to Gordon Ward for what must have been non-performance, and I doubt if DS will be given as much rope as Gordon. NZOG still looks like a ponzi scheme - GSJBW seem scared to buy back any shares, NZOG keep issuing them, management and directors get paid more but don't seem to have added value, nor has the market recognised value that was there from those that came before. Peter Whittall needs to get the job done - I find it hard to believe that Pike's road header(?s) are only working 5 days a week when we are told that that is the production bottleneck.

[fabs]

Ditto to the above.
This site has gone strangely quite recently, wonder why?

[COLIN]

This site has gone strangely quite recently, wonder why?

Perhaps because most of us former supporters have given up on this sorry outfit and have gone to greener pastures in Australia.

[geezy]

nz oh nz, working 5 days a week eh? its always about the lifestyle ..

[fabs]

Yup Colin,
most if not all of the 22 hard workers of the co. probably over there too living it up.
Good on them.

[friedegg]

another oil spill from a tanker washing up on kapiti coast,hope its not nzo again?although they say its from a tanker so may have no impact on nzo/awe itself if it is from tui

[manxman]

another oil spill from a tanker washing up on kapiti coast,hope its not nzo again?although they say its from a tanker so may have no impact on nzo/awe itself if it is from tui

Small blobs of oil washed up on beaches north of Wellington on Monday are believed to be from a crude oil spill off Taranaki a month ago.

Greater Wellington Regional council says the globules have been found at the high-tide mark between Mana and Otaki on the Kapiti Coast.

The council suspects the oil has come from a 1000-litre leak from production ship Raroa. -- Radio New Zealand

[Chris Roberts]

The Raroa is the FPSO at the Maari field. NZOG has no involvement.

[bung5]

Is NZO the only one buying their shares at the moment? Would hate to see the shareprice without the buyback

[fish]

Tapis oil has been at NZD120 for a while now and still holding. Helps to make producing NZ wells very profitable.

Tapis is still holding over $120 making steady profit plus fixed price gas contracts and lpg profits and prc is coming right again yet someone is still dumping nzo against this and a buy-back . Doesnt seem logical to me .I guess thats how stupid markets can be .

[fish]

Is NZO the only one buying their shares at the moment? Would hate to see the shareprice without the buyback

Hi bung-yes I am buying
Got an order in for 1.22

[Phaedrus]

..... Doesnt seem logical to me. I guess thats how stupid markets can be .
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. (John Maynard Keynes)

[fish]

Thanks for that wisdom phaedrus-I was about to start buying a lot
I will hold out for a further fall before I do
Fortunately I bought heavily into vector when they were around 190 -no one could explain on here why they were so cheap so bought lots and have been selling last few days so am safely solvent and patient

[Logen Ninefingers]

I don't think anyone is convinced that PRC is coming right. When will they be doing another shipment? Will they be able to pay back the money NZO advanced them to keep them running? When will they require another bail-out from NZO? - soon I'd say.
The PRC options will expire in April 2011 without anyone taking them up - unless they get their share-price up to and over $1.25, so that cuts off another line of funds for them. Who will have to pick up the slack????? NZO!!!!!!

PRC is a big albatross around NZO's neck at the moment. Everyone knows it.

[fish]

I don't think anyone is convinced that PRC is coming right. When will they be doing another shipment? Will they be able to pay back the money NZO advanced them to keep them running? When will they require another bail-out from NZO? - soon I'd say.
The PRC options will expire in April 2011 without anyone taking them up - unless they get their share-price up to and over $1.25, so that cuts off another line of funds for them. Who will have to pick up the slack????? NZO!!!!!!

PRC is a big albatross around NZO's neck at the moment. Everyone knows it.

Well actually that is clearly incorrect .Not everyone .
NZO has had offers to buy their PRC but not at the kind of price they would like . With no more unexpected problems they will be a very valuable company in 12 months . Its just that some people dont have the patience to remain in the market until then . I have been buying PRC .
In the meantime nzo is making handsome profits loaning money to prc plus teeing up their shareholding to make it very attractive to steelmakers . The importance of the extension of the lifetime option to take a substantial shareof prc coal has been lost to those selling nzo today
NZO as a lender to prc is in a better position than other shareholders .

[boysy]

making handsome money off money it lent them in the first place this is not a good lending process. If PRC doesnt become profitable it doesnt matter what interest rate NZo get of PRC they simply will not get back the principle they initially lent them lol.

[777]

making handsome money off money it lent them in the first place this is not a good lending process. If PRC doesnt become profitable it doesnt matter what interest rate NZo get of PRC they simply will not get back the principle they initially lent them lol.

So all this coal is just going to vanish, is it?

[Logen Ninefingers]

making handsome money off money it lent them in the first place this is not a good lending process. If PRC doesnt become profitable it doesnt matter what interest rate NZo get of PRC they simply will not get back the principle they initially lent them lol.

Exactly. And we've got talk of "no more unexpected problems". This is the constant that's always being harped on, yet there are always more unexpected problems. What happens if the hydro-mining equipment beaks down?? What happens if they hit another graben?? What happens if the continous mining machines break down?? It's a catastrophe, that's what. Because Pike has no cash buffer anymore, and no earnings to speak of. All the cash from the capital-raising(s) is history. They are running on NZO bail-outs just to keep operating, and getting more in hock every day. Which means any problem stands to have a huge impact on the mine's ability to keep going.

I'm sorry, there is a big risk factor here for NZO. NZO's future has been staked on a coal mine. All the oil and gas success is being over-shadowed by PRC. If PRC continue to perform as per their track record, no-one is going to want to buy their stake in PRC.

[Logen Ninefingers]

So all this coal is just going to vanish, is it?

"The coal is there" is a nonsensical argument. It's like pointing to the sea and saying "the fish are there", while your fishing boat is aground on the the rocks, you're nets are torn to shreds, & you've lost your keel. The coal has always been there, but it has to be got out, and profitably. So far a project that was supposed to go from start-up to full production on $75 million has gobbled up several times that amount, and all they have to show for it is 40,000 tonnes of coal shipped. NZO's result each year is being impacted by a loss from PRC. NZO is pouring money into PRC, and NZO's SP is suffering because of the (increasing) amount of risk they are being exposed to. These are the facts of the matter.

[777]

And your glass is half empty I guess.

[bung5]

"The coal is there" is a nonsensical argument. It's like pointing to the sea and saying "the fish are there", while your fishing boat is aground on the the rocks, you're nets are torn to shreds, & you've lost your keel. The coal has always been there, but it has to be got out, and profitably. So far a project that was supposed to go from start-up to full production on $75 million has gobbled up several times that amount, and all they have to show for it is 40,000 tonnes of coal shipped. NZO's result each year is being impacted by a loss from PRC. NZO is pouring money into PRC, and NZO's SP is suffering because of the (increasing) amount of risk they are being exposed to. These are the facts of the matter.

You say this like there is a better option for NZO. It would be a very stupid mistak now to ditch PRC after over 10 years of work to get to this point. Just relax.

[Logen Ninefingers]

And your glass is half empty I guess.

That's the dishonesty promoted within corporate culture. Most of the people rising to the top are driven by the pursuit of money and power, and lack empathy. They have big ego's, pride themselves on positive thinking, and get so locked into this mind-set that they lose objectivity. This is how Pike, with it's constant optimistic forecasts, got itself into this mess. I bet they couldn't find one honest guy prepared to risk his future promotions and big pay packet to actually speak up and be honest about the situation. Everyone from the bottom to the top is locked into saying what everyone else wants to hear, and if you step out of line you're 'negative'....you're out. .....And when things turn to custard, the ego-freaks at the top can't understand it; everything and everyone gets the blame but them.

Even now, with PRC lurching from debacle to crisis at every turn, we still get the same spin and exortations to "think positive". Think honest, think accurate, think real: don't be a sheep.

[winner69]

That's the dishonesty promoted within corporate culture. Most of the people rising to the top are driven by the pursuit of money and power, and lack empathy. They have big ego's, pride themselves on positive thinking, and get so locked into this mind-set that they lose objectivity. This is how Pike, with it's constant optimistic forecasts, got itself into this mess. I bet they couldn't find one honest guy prepared to risk his future promotions and big pay packet to actually speak up and be honest about the situation. Everyone from the bottom to the top is locked into saying what everyone else wants to hear, and if you step out of line you're 'negative'....you're out. .....And when things turn to custard, the ego-freaks at the top can't understand it; everything and everyone gets the blame but them.

Even now, with PRC lurching from debacle to crisis at every turn, we still get the same spin and exortations to "think positive". Think honest, think accurate, think real: don't be a sheep.

One of your more perceptive posts Mr 9fingers - well done

[Lion]

One of your more perceptive posts Mr 9fingers - well doneSorry, disagree

[Logen Ninefingers]

Sorry, disagree

Awww, don't be negative.

[Lion]

Awww, don't be negative.Oh, sorry to offend you Logen, I just can't help but be negative about your negativity.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Oh, sorry to offend you Logen, I just can't help but be negative about your negativity.

It's quite all right old chap, don't apologise.

[fabs]

Does anyone know the depth, if any of the NZO boards expertise in coal mining, or for that matter investments, apart from them alluding to be guns in oil & gas exploration?

[winner69]

Sorry, disagree

So we agree to disagree than Mr Lion .... that Mr 9fingers post does reflect what goes on in many organisations .... its only natural behaviour .... and Pike seems to show all the symptoms of that behaviour

Maybe we agree to disagree because our emotional attachment to the subject in question is different

[fish]

Does anyone know the depth, if any of the NZO boards expertise in coal mining, or for that matter investments, apart from them alluding to be guns in oil & gas exploration?

I recently had the chance to have discussions with TR , DS, a distiguished investor whom I won"t name and Chris Roberts . They impressed me with their experience and knowledge .They are far too modest too ever allude to be guns and strive to be as open and honest as possible .

[blockhead]

Forgive me, but everytime I read a Nine digits negative post the name Sniper comes to mind, remiss of me I know.

[fabs]

FISH
personally i share the same sentiments about TR my association with him stretches some 20 years, been in and out of MIN. RES. OTTER GOLD, PPP, NZO, & indirect PRC.
Yes all the good stuff in these co,s can be directly attributed to him.
The old but now realized TUI & KUPE are mainly in the hands of other Co,s.
Lot of comments and claims have been made in recent documents about where, the mostly new and highly salaried members of the board will
take NZOG in the last 5 years.
I do not now who writes or edits these reports [ 1/4 1/2 yearly reports ] also projections where they intend to take the Co.
To say the lest i am not impressed so far, but ready to recant if there is measurable progress but patience starting to erode fast.
We all know and have heard often enough how great Tui & Kupe are.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Forgive me, but everytime I read a Nine digits negative post the name Sniper comes to mind, remiss of me I know.

I'm 'negative' - I would say say honest or realistic - about PRC. It seems to me that the project infrastructure alone (never mind working capital) was under-costed by about $150 million from the get-go. Corners were cut to try and deliver a fully operational mine on the cheap. The cheap solutions used have cost PRC - ultimately the share-holder owners - as yet unquantified millions of dollars & untold lost credibility.

I like NZO, I'm up-beat about their oil & gas assets. But PRC is an on-going disaster.

[blockhead]

No question Logen, PRC have certainly got issues and right now my truckload of options are looking a bit shaky but as well as for ever emphasising the negative how about recognising there is (in my view) still opportunity in PRC, all is not lost.

[winner69]

Forgive me, but everytime I read a Nine digits negative post the name Sniper comes to mind, remiss of me I know.

9fingers isn't sniper ..... sniper/balance et al wouldn't put so many words together in one post

Sniper was the master of the one liners ... or may 2 at the most

[skid]

LNF and Balance-do you have a strategy? Will you buy in when or if the share price drops to $xx? Or are you just observing? putting this much energy into this thread means you must have some sort of intentioin-Im curious what it is....

[fabs]

Agree with you winner69, but they both match each other in come true Prophesies.
BTW THE BOARD COULD ALSO START BUYING A FEW THOUSAND $ S WORTH OF LOTTO TICKETS EVERY WEEK.
A strategy maybe as good as any at the rate this is developing.

[Logen Ninefingers]

LNF and Balance-do you have a strategy? Will you buy in when or if the share price drops to $xx? Or are you just observing? putting this much energy into this thread means you must have some sort of intentioin-Im curious what it is....

I'd like to buy in again at some stage, I really would. I'd like to be buying into NZO at a time when the company has resolved the matters which are currently clouding it's outlook. The PRC situation is a saga I have been following for some time, and it's fascinating. Over the course of reading the information coming through from PRC, the posters in this and the PRC thread, and also information from other sources, I reached the following conclusions:
1/ PRC was grossly under-costed and under-funded from the start, and that has made the current situation practically inevitable.
2/ PRC stuffed up the purchase of their continuous mining equipment. They took the wrong option, and 'cheapest is not always best / you get what you pay for.' The Sandvik ABM20's were always the better, if more costly, option.
3/ There are people currently within the top management of PRC who have displayed questionable judgement coupled with a lack of accountability and a prolonged inability to learn from past mistakes.

I would be very happy for NZO to find a way to extract itself from the position it is in with PRC.

[notie]

NZOG has this millstone of Pike around their neck and they won't be able to rid themselves of it for at least a year.

Meantime they are blowing their money by buying back their own shares as an artificial method of keeping their share price up.

Expect nzog to pump more money (shareholder's war chest) into Pike to keep them going.
so much for the bright future of 2-3 years ago when they had is this money after Tui came on. All these seem to have done is increased their staff levels and amount of money they have spent with no tangible results.

Are they going to drill Kaupokonui when they have only managed to attract one farm in partner to 20% of costs? nzog will have to fund 80% of the well and I can't see them doing that. Expect them to relinquish the permit. Will DS on his 550K will sort things out?

[the machine]

I pending drill should be all that it takes to stop the sp sliding.

m

[bung5]

Meantime they are blowing their money by buying back their own shares as an artificial method of keeping their share price up.



The buy back is a joke. 10,000 shares yesterday.

[fabs]

Yes true,
but it stops them going down to the more realistic level of between$ 1.05 -$ 1.15 and i would not buy any even at that.
Unless the problems with PRC are resolved there has to be some quantum improvement elsewhere for this Co. which i always thought since Tui & Kupe would be a co. with a bright future.
CHEERS

[fabs]

Let our Thoughts and Prayers be with the Missing, Families ,Relatives and Friends.

[bermuda]

Let our Thoughts and Prayers be with the Missing, Families ,Relatives and Friends.
Fabs,
That is a very nice post. Let us all pray together for all involved.

[friedegg]

so what the hell happens now??

[fish]

so what the hell happens now??

Not much by the looks of things .
If you are referring to trading I believe there is a halt to trading on the asx which continues until tuesday unless otherwise notified.
During this long wait for a rescue my mind has had occasion to think what should I do next week-
NZO still has money in the bank and those valuable oil fields producing income so will stay solvent- I expect the sp to drop about 25c-but its anyones guess .
I hope a trading halt will continue longer-especially if the trapped men are not brought out .
It would seem almost obscene to be doing so

[arjay]

I also hope they get the miners out very quickly and alive - obviously for the relief of their loved ones but secondly, an expeditious and successful recovery will help build confidence back into Pike and its safety systems. I'm also hoping for a quick resolution because, after a short period of respectful sympathy for the miners and their families the media will no-doubt start a witch hunt (because they love it) and this will be counterproductive to everything except newspapers sales.

[notie]

this is so tragic. It appears that is a very likely that the miners were all killed in an explosion on Friday afternoon and a fire is now burning in the mine. This is the end to Pike River and there will be a witch hunt which will no doubt turn up some issues.

Where does that leave nzog? Well I don't think they will get their 85 million back from Pike and expect them to have to bail them out even more to clean this mess up. There will be no way anyone will want to buy the mine, and certainly not for the valuation nzog has put on it.

There is still a small chance some miners have survived, but it is remote.

This is a disaster in more than one way

[Kees]

cant see them walking away there have been disasters like this elsewhere and people get on with it clean it up and carry on.

[geezy]

any picks after trading halt is lifteD?

[friedegg]

the upper big branch coal mine disastor in west virgina happened on 5/4/2010 at 3.27pm,29 miners died and it was the us worst coal disastor in 40 years,it was 4 days before they could get in and access acurately the fatalities and around 4 months before they could get in and start investigating it,they are still investigating it now

[Beagle]

the upper big branch coal mine disastor in west virgina happened on 5/4/2010 at 3.27pm,29 miners died and it was the us worst coal disastor in 40 years,it was 4 days before they could get in and access acurately the fatalities and around 4 months before they could get in and start investigating it,they are still investigating it now

Good realistic post. PRC as many have noted has been a problem child for ages now. It'll cost an absolute fortune if the mine can ever be made operational again, which I very seriously doubt. David Salisbury needs to look after NZO's key assets and make the hard decision to let the constantly dissappointing company PRC face its almost inevitable conclusion.

NZO has some good assets without PRC and needs to focus on those. NZO's investment and loans to PRC are approx $100m and based on shareholders funds in the annual report of $446m that would suggest a fair price for NZO counting PRC at nil value of 93 cents. If the share trading halt is lifted, and I think for NZO it should be as surely nvestors are capable of making there own minds up as to the approximate fair carrying value of PRC in NZO's books I expect the market to place a minimal, if any valuation on the value of NZO's investment in PRC going forward. However if David Salisbury does something really stupid likes backs PRC without limit's there could be a large negative value implied on NZO and reflected in the share price. D.S. Needs to look after NZO first and foremost and act SOLELY in NZO's interests.

[friedegg]

theres the buy back as well,so when the halt is lifted,what will nzo do about thier buy back?

[blockhead]

Of course we don't know the damage to the mine as yet and we also do not know if there is a fire down there which could be impossible to put out but if the mine is able to be saved I suspect there will be pressure brought to bear from Coasters, miners and probably Smilin John to keep it going, it can provide a lot of economic gain for the Coast and NZ.
The Indians will no doubt be very interested in whats going on here as well, don't know what the implications are if there supply contract is broken.

[Beagle]

theres the buy back as well,so when the halt is lifted,what will nzo do about thier buy back?

I've watched the buy-back and its influence on the S.P. which has been minimal IMO.
They seem to have been at pains to not "shift" the market with the buy-back, that said obviously the buy-back has been supportive of the price overall. I think the price will find its own level pretty quickly around where I have suggested it should be above. Put it another way, if the shares are over a $1.00 or under 80 cents i'll be taking what I consider to be the appropriate action, selling or buying respectivly.

NZO
22/11/2010 09:14
GENERAL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NZO
22/11/2010 09:31
HALT

REL: 0931 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

HALT: NZO: NZX Market Supervision NZO Trading Halt

22 November 2010

NZX Market Supervision
New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
Trading Halt

NZX Market Supervision ("NZXMS") advises that, at the request of the company,
it has placed a trading halt on New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited's ("NZO's")
ordinary shares, pending a material announcement by the company.

Ends.
End CA:00202667 For:NZO Type:HALT Time:2010-11-22 09:32:04

[Nitaa]

Good estimate. My ball park view is that it should wipe off about $100m off the market value or about 30 cps

[Bilo]

Good estimate. My ball park view is that it should wipe off about $100m off the market value or about 30 cps

Pike has weighed heavily on the NZO share price for a good while now. Every announcement of support has reduced the SP. There is an argument that the NZO share price would have been better without PRC, just as it would have been better with better performance from PRC. Let us give people time to work this out. No doubt the shorters are itching to unleash mayhem on the investors and the bank margin lenders are poised to remove margin loans from their clients. Vultures all or is it just survival of the fastest and nastiest? IMO there is nothing to be gained from removing the trading halt until everyone can focus on an organised commercial outcome. For now we have 29 people underground and that should be everyone's focus.

[friedegg]

trouble is bilo im getting the feeling nzo will trade tomorrow(i hope not) yet prc stays in suspension,this means some nzo holders may have important decisions to make today

[Bilo]

trouble is bilo im getting the feeling nzo will trade tomorrow(i hope not) yet prc stays in suspension,this means some nzo holders may have important decisions to make today

I would find it morally insane for NZO to trade tomorrow. There is just no excuse to addto peoples misery. Imaging getting a margin call from your husband's bank when he is still down the mine? PRC isn't going to get sorted for months even if 29 miners walk out this afternoon, and trading a few shares won't help anyone. The OZL instance and NXS during the GFC are cases where trading halts allowed time for investors to be allowed follow all eventualities. The sooner an announcement to this effect the better, IMO.

[shasta]

this is so tragic. It appears that is a very likely that the miners were all killed in an explosion on Friday afternoon and a fire is now burning in the mine. This is the end to Pike River and there will be a witch hunt which will no doubt turn up some issues.

Where does that leave nzog? Well I don't think they will get their 85 million back from Pike and expect them to have to bail them out even more to clean this mess up. There will be no way anyone will want to buy the mine, and certainly not for the valuation nzog has put on it.

There is still a small chance some miners have survived, but it is remote.

This is a disaster in more than one way

In a perverse, but investment thinking way (no offence intended), perhaps NZO will want to pursue the coal seam gas potential of the brunner seam?

Looks very unlikely Pike River will ever get consent to mine for coal now, given the enormous costs they would have to spend upgrading the mines safety standards

Out of tragedy comes opportunity?

[Beagle]

I would find it morally insane for NZO to trade tomorrow. There is just no excuse to addto peoples misery. Imaging getting a margin call from your husband's bank when he is still down the mine? PRC isn't going to get sorted for months even if 29 miners walk out this afternoon, and trading a few shares won't help anyone. The OZL instance and NXS during the GFC are cases where trading halts allowed time for investors to be allowed follow all eventualities. The sooner an announcement to this effect the better, IMO.

I don't agree. NZO directors are presently working on a statement outlining scenario's and endeavoring to provide some clarity of the effect of the PRC event on NZO. PRC is only as associate of NZO and only one of its investments. The free and open market should be allowed to get on with its business once the staement from NZO directors is issued. To wait for the financial implications of the PRC event to be quantified with any reasonable degree of accuracy on that company and consequently upon NZO would amount to an unreasonable interference with market dynamics and could put NZO into a trading halt for weeks or months, who wants that ?

[Bilo]

To wait for the financial implications of the PRC event to be quantified with any reasonable degree of accuracy on that company and consequently upon NZO would amount to an unreasonable interference with market dynamics and could put NZO into a trading halt for weeks or months, who wants that ?

Everyone who ever invested in anything and has a modicom of concern for others, or the majority of their shareholders.
Unless NZO sell their PRC interests or get taken out themselves, there is no-one that will determine the commercial outcomes of this disaster to NZO for some time. IMO

[duncan macgregor]

Of course we don't know the damage to the mine as yet and we also do not know if there is a fire down there which could be impossible to put out but if the mine is able to be saved I suspect there will be pressure brought to bear from Coasters, miners and probably Smilin John to keep it going, it can provide a lot of economic gain for the Coast and NZ.
The Indians will no doubt be very interested in whats going on here as well, don't know what the implications are if there supply contract is broken. If its a fire BLOCKHEAD it can be put out by blocking off its air source after the rescue attempt. If it is a fire that might explain the delay in getting the rescue attempt under way. Macdunk

[fish]

I would also like a long-term trading halt on prc and nzo-would stop the sharks feeding on the shipwrecked .
I have been selling stocks today in case of a major fall in nzo . I like to have plenty in reserve to keep that margin call away
My broker says it will most likely be trading tomorrow at around $1-00

[minimoke]

If its a fire BLOCKHEAD it can be put out by blocking off its air source ....
Thats probably what the residents of Centralia were told. Its been going for 50 years and estimates reckon it should be all over in around 250 - 1,000 years.

[fabs]

First thing NZO board, turn of money supply to PRC as a 30% S/H nzo is not responsible to bring mine to prod. now that the co. is bankrupt there is no way they get any of it back.
Cost to restart the mine to production level, probably 150 to 200 mil. Think of all the possible and likley scenarios
TIMELINE:
To restart
Short, 9 -18 mts.
Medium, 2-5yrs.
Long, 5- never.
PRC IS NOT DEAD IN THE WATER , IT IS SUNK.
Time for NZO the cut loss and concentrate fulltime on it,s core activity.
The gamble has not payed off
Irregardless the outcome of the present Tragedy!

[shasta]

First thing NZO board, turn of money supply to PRC as a 30% S/H nzo is not responsible to bring mine to prod. now that the co. is bankrupt there is no way they get any of it back.
Cost to restart the mine to production level, probably 150 to 200 mil. Think of all the possible and likley scenarios
TIMELINE:
To restart
Short, 9 -18 mts.
Medium, 2-5yrs.
Long, 5- never.
PRC IS NOT DEAD IN THE WATER , IT IS SUNK.
Time for NZO the cut loss and concentrate fulltime on it,s core activity.
The gamble has not payed off
Irregardless the outcome of the present Tragedy!

NZO's board should be thinking about IT's OWN shareholders first & foremost, its options are:

1. Cease funding anymore loans to Pike & await what transpires (allow shareholding %age to be dilluted, medium term strategy)
2. Look to exit its shareholding, take the loss & focus on Kupe, Tui & there exploration portfolio (short term strategy)
3. Throw more money into it to assist the long road ahead to coal production (long term strategy)

NZO has PRC shares, convertible notes, short term loans, + the coal production rights, so its a bit of a financial weave to unravel its association from PRC without putting them further in the crapper...

Personally i'd take the #2 option, but i'll assume NZO will choose #1 (for now), & hopefully not #3

Fabs, totally agree with your timeframes & cost estimates

[friedegg]

how can nzo make an imformed decision on pike by tomorrow,its stupid

[Lion]

Via ASBSEC, I see Morningstar have made a valuation of NZO at $1.08 AUSTRALIAN after the Pike explosion. (They last traded at A92c) They warn that NZO may well be oversold when it starts trading again, noting that only 20% of NZO's market cap is made up of PRC and that if NZO's sp falls by more than 20% when they start trading, it would be excessive.

Edit - I assume that means that if NZO did fall by 20% it would mean PRC had no value at all - surely that wouldn't happen? There's still a conservative $11b worth of coal there.

[Beagle]

NZO's board should be thinking about IT's OWN shareholders first & foremost, its options are:

1. Cease funding anymore loans to Pike & await what transpires (allow shareholding %age to be dilluted, medium term strategy)
2. Look to exit its shareholding, take the loss & focus on Kupe, Tui & there exploration portfolio (short term strategy)
3. Throw more money into it to assist the long road ahead to coal production (long term strategy)

NZO has PRC shares, convertible notes, short term loans, + the coal production rights, so its a bit of a financial weave to unravel its association from PRC without putting them further in the crapper...

Personally i'd take the #2 option, but i'll assume NZO will choose #1 (for now), & hopefully not #3

Fabs, totally agree with your timeframes & cost estimates

I agree with you and Fabs, its pretty clear the value the market should attribute to the PRC component of NZO's balance sheet is minimal if any. On this basis I see no logical reason why NZO should be kept in a trading halt, sure emotions are running high but the market is logical and will mark NZO back by about 20-25% (approx 30 cents) on the basis that its investment in PRC is worthless.

Obviously there will be some who believe the mine is still potentially a going concern, (I am definitly not one of them) and they have the option to buy into NZO if they still believe in the PRC story.

I agree NZO should turn off the cash tap, PRC is a mine out of cash, out of time, out of excuses and out of luck. I would strongly encourage NZO Directors to stop throwing good money after bad.

[blockhead]

In theory you are correct DONK but in reality it doesnt always work like that.

PS I was employed as a professional firefighter for 27 years !

[Anna Naum]

Salvus announcement after market today estimating that the 9% of SAM holding in NZOG is going to be worth 3.2cps to SAM NAV.

[shasta]

I agree with you and Fabs, its pretty clear the value the market should attribute to the PRC component of NZO's balance sheet is minimal if any. On this basis I see no logical reason why NZO should be kept in a trading halt, sure emotions are running high but the market is logical and will mark NZO back by about 20-25% (approx 30 cents) on the basis that its investment in PRC is worthless.

Obviously there will be some who believe the mine is still potentially a going concern, (I am definitly not one of them) and they have the option to buy into NZO if they still believe in the PRC story.

I agree NZO should turn off the cash tap, PRC is a mine out of cash, out of time, out of excuses and out of luck. I would strongly encourage NZO Directors to stop throwing good money after bad.

The Govt has backed many other dogs (yes even SCF) so let them bail out PRC & be repaid from future revenues.

The flow on effect for employment in Reefton/Greymouth area might make the Govt act

[skid]

Holy Mac! From what I can see NZO is up and running again Buy98 sELL100

[777]

Holy Mac! From what I can see NZO is up and running again Buy98 sELL100


Trading halt still in place as far as I can see.

[Lizard]

As I understand it, bids and offers can still be placed while a company is in halt, but won't be executed until halt is removed. This is the difference from suspension where all bids/offers are removed prior to re-opening.

NZO will have to release an update prior to coming out of halt. ASX would normally require a halt to finish at their open this morning, so would need a reasonable case for a further 2 day halt, but may suspend them if they don't provide an update. Since was not halted on NZX until yesterday, they might have a bit longer here.

Surprised we did not have an announcement by now, but most likely get one by 10am Aussie time.

[skid]

mayby i got it wrong-although i dont see anything about TH on direct broking

[skid]

thanx for update Lizard

[the machine]

nzo are suspended pending announcement hopefully AM Wednesday

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01123384

M

[Beagle]

The Govt has backed many other dogs (yes even SCF) so let them bail out PRC & be repaid from future revenues.

The flow on effect for employment in Reefton/Greymouth area might make the Govt act

Well said Shasta.

I really feel for the miners and their families but there's hundereds of millions of dollars at stake here and that also matters.

Either the Govt provides assistance to keep the mine in an "on hold status" approx $7 million a month or PRC make a renounceable rights issue say 2 for 1 at 20 cents or something like that and PRC shareholders can make up their own minds whether there's any value left in the company and whether they deserve yet another chance. Perhaps the Government could underwrite the rights issue, remember the Air New Zealand bail out anyone, deemed to be in the national interest ? But who if anyone will be interested in PRC eventually resuming mine operations if all the miners are dead ?

[minimoke]

Two more minutes to see the initial impact. Trading halt lifted.

[fish]

around 85 cents-lower than i expected

[shasta]

Well said Shasta.

I really feel for the miners and their families but there's hundereds of millions of dollars at stake here and that also matters.

Either the Govt provides assistance to keep the mine in an "on hold status" approx $7 million a month or PRC make a renounceable rights issue say 2 for 1 at 20 cents or something like that and PRC shareholders can make up their own minds whether there's any value left in the company and whether they deserve yet another chance. Perhaps the Government could underwrite the rights issue, remember the Air New Zealand bail out anyone, deemed to be in the national interest ? But who if anyone will be interested in PRC eventually resuming mine operations if all the miners are dead ?

The Govt could buy PRC & run it in a similar vein to the Stockton mine run by Solid Energy? (providing NZO an exit strategy?)

The hard coking coal is still of value, especially to the Japanese steelmakers, again NZO can extract some value on-selling the coal production rights?

Wonder what the Indian shareholders want to do, & whether there focus is short or longer term? (Where does that leave NZO?)

Assuming, the "rescue" is now just a body recovery, the sentiment in the affected surrounding areas may prompt the Govt to act

I still see room for NZO to extract some value out of this situation, & would be interested in NZO is oversold

Disc: Nil held in NZO & PRC

[trackers]

The Govt could buy PRC & run it in a similar vein to the Stockton mine run by Solid Energy? (providing NZO an exit strategy?)

The hard coking coal is still of value, especially to the Japanese steelmakers, again NZO can extract some value on-selling the coal production rights?

Wonder what the Indian shareholders want to do, & whether there focus is short or longer term? (Where does that leave NZO?)

Assuming, the "rescue" is now just a body recovery, the sentiment in the affected surrounding areas may prompt the Govt to act

I still see room for NZO to extract some value out of this situation, & would be interested in NZO is oversold

Disc: Nil held in NZO & PRC

Interesting thoughts Shasta... I see 30% has just evaporated from NZO.

The key question for me (when considering govt intervention etc) is... What guarantee can operators give that there will 100% certainty that this won't happen again in future? Noone will want to buy a loaded gun, as there will be even less excuses for this sort of accident again in the future.

I personally think the govt would be stupid to touch it

[fish]

?oversold at 80 cents-I think so but their is downwards pressure still-hope the buyback kicks in before margin lenders have to exit

[fish]

The nzo statement is good-they will continue to supply funding to prc so at least families of the trapped and workers will keep receiving wages

[upside_umop]

Around $140m wiped off NZO. Goes to show that the equity stake and debt was already discounted in NZO like most equity stakes have of publicly traded companies are.

I don't think the govt will step in. PRC probably won't be up and running for quite a while yet. The best thing would be to bring it down to a small team to work on design implementations so the risk of something like this never happens again. However, I see it as quite unlikey for PRC to stand on its own again. NZOG is their largest creditor and will no doubt get the asset and from there take it on again. There is what $300m of infrastructure at PRC now?

The greenies will probably come out and say this is why we shouldn't be mining coal etc but has anybody thought that this shows what lengths people/cpmpanies have to go to make investment in this country? This would never have happened if this was a simple open cast mine. Furthermore, the economic benefit would be greater from the full recovery of the coal and at a much more timely rate (the recovery rate would have been closer to the 58mt than the current 18mt). There would be visual impact in the short term, but how many people from here can honestly say they have looked at the paparoa ranges other than in PRC reports?

Lets just hope we get some good news out of that mine over the next few days with the miners first.

[geezy]

in the ealrier statement nzo values its total PRC investment as only 16 cents / nzo share, oversold?

[Beagle]

The Govt could buy PRC & run it in a similar vein to the Stockton mine run by Solid Energy? (providing NZO an exit strategy?)

The hard coking coal is still of value, especially to the Japanese steelmakers, again NZO can extract some value on-selling the coal production rights?

Wonder what the Indian shareholders want to do, & whether there focus is short or longer term? (Where does that leave NZO?)

Assuming, the "rescue" is now just a body recovery, the sentiment in the affected surrounding areas may prompt the Govt to act

I still see room for NZO to extract some value out of this situation, & would be interested in NZO is oversold

Disc: Nil held in NZO & PRC

The market pricing of NZO is clearly indicating based on a weighted average of people's opinion, that PRC has no residual value, and I agree.

It will be politically unacceptable for the Govt to take over the mine.

I am slightly disappointed that NZO are so freely continuing to fund PRC to the tune of the rest of the draw-down facility, approx a further $12m when there would appear to be very little hope of repayment. Perhaps from a legal / moral point of view, they had no choice but I believe the market by pricing NZO at 85 cents is saying from a commercial viewpoint, we're not impressed.

With heaps of negative sentiment still to be vented in the market against PRC its hard to see NZO's share price moving north from here for quite some time or at least until the dust settles, which could be many months away ?

What to do, buy, sell or hold....me thinks the latter, that way no one can say big Rodge profited from other people's misery.

[fabs]

FISH
Your heart is in the right place mate.
Makes you wonder what contingency system PRC has in place for just such as redundancy, injury, sickness and death at work insurance and compensation payments. Should not come out of borrowed funds. So NZO is in there as a secure creditor for another 12mil. how secure that is remains to be seen.
As to buy back, will never be cheaper than now.

[Beagle]

FISH
So NZO is in there as a secure creditor for another 12mil. how secure that is remains to be seen.
As to buy back, will never be cheaper than now.

I think the $12m extra funding amounts to a "gift" that NZO had little option but to do. They're were comprehensivly snookered. Cold logic suggests you are right about the price, but there's so much negative sentiment.....

[Rabbi]

So far the volume of shares traded has been relatively modest.

You can forget about what the valuation is, market sentiment alone is dictating the SP .

I wonder what the institutions will do?

[Traderx]

I wonder if the margin calls on NZO have begun. Could be some forced selling.

Sad situation all round.

[shasta]

So far the volume of shares traded has been relatively modest.

You can forget about what the valuation is, market sentiment alone is dictating the SP .

I wonder what the institutions will do?

You would have to assume the institutions will be in it for the long haul, as they would have wanted dividends from PRC when in steady production

But good question, whether institutions would buy/hold or sell if NZO was wanting to exit PRC earlier than anticipated

Otherwise its holding on for Tui & Kupe, with Pike in the background as another project "in development"

[fabs]

Maybe NZO board at the end of there wits, inviting takeover?

[friedegg]

asb have been trying to ring me but ive holed myself in the bedroom and im not comming out