NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Beagle]

[QUOTE=Otherwise its holding on for Tui & Kupe, with Pike in the background as another project "in development"[/QUOTE]In development, there's euphamistic phrase if ever there was one.

Not too happy to make what amounts to a forced donation to the miners families of $12m, I thought donations were voluntary ?

NZO directors are showing themselves as unable to act independently ? Funding lines would normally be frozen when an event of this magnitude occurrs but they seem so keen to be seen to be politically correct. Fact is they've been funding this underperforming DOG when hardly anyone else would for quite some time and they've dug themselves deeper and deeper "into it" to the point where they've snookered themselves.

Very poor decision making on NZO's part and NZO should have been making PRC fund itself or wither and die a long time ago.
Not impressed.

[manxman]

asb have been trying to ring me but ive holed myself in the bedroom and im not comming out

Yup. The shares may be oversold but if ASB starts dumping friedegg's holding we could be in for a rough ride tomorrow.

[friedegg]

wont be just mine either?thats really buggered me now,i count myself lucky im only holed up in my bedroom depressed about myself

[fish]

wont be just mine either?thats really buggered me now,i count myself lucky im only holed up in my bedroom depressed about myself

You are not alone fried egg-I spent most of the day yesterday raising funds and discussing scenarios with ASB . I got the impression they are not into being kind and understanding .
I also sold about $100,000 vector yesterday as an extrs buffer and am getting my house mortgage increased and going back to work tomorrow-I had taken my first holiday for 9 months-now cut short !

By the way anyone want to buy a fantastic 2 yr old caravan-unused on the road apart from delivery-going very cheap !

[friedegg]

at least my broker person can console me in the fact that at least i was quite used to margin calls...
pike i believe is finished in its current form,the government has a lot of thinking to do because its was one of thier biggest pluses to mining on doc land.
if they decide after an enquiry to close it,pike will go insolvent and who will clean it up?
if they allow it to open again the time delay,further safety restrictions will make pike insolvent
if they allow a one off and open cast it,i can only see doc/greenies as the only hurdle

[peat]

just thinkin that NZO paid a 5 cent dividend recently .... and the cash flows are not affected by PRC as all the revenue comes from other sources , so that dividend is probably not in jeopardy for next year. which means nearly %6 yield at these prices , though a almost a full year before that streams.

[Beagle]

at least my broker person can console me in the fact that at least i was quite used to margin calls...
pike i believe is finished in its current form,the government has a lot of thinking to do because its was one of thier biggest pluses to mining on doc land.
if they decide after an enquiry to close it,pike will go insolvent and who will clean it up?
if they allow it to open again the time delay,further safety restrictions will make pike insolvent
if they allow a one off and open cast it,i can only see doc/greenies as the only hurdle

I think if at all possible they should get on and allow it to be open cast. There's no point in N.Z. being 100% clean and green if we're bankrupt. S & P putting N.Z. on negative credit watch for a reason anyone ? Greenies and politically correct people have all the power. Its long overdue for N.Z's to get real. If there's valuable resources in the land whereever the heck it is that will give a desperatly needed boost to economic growth then its time to mine it by whatever means necessary and stop all the we must be spotlessly clean and green B.S.

[Balance]

I think if at all possible they should get on and allow it to be open cast. There's no point in N.Z. being 100% clean and green if we're bankrupt. S & P putting N.Z. on negative credit watch for a reason anyone ? Greenies and politically correct people have all the power. Its long overdue for N.Z's to get real. If there's valuable resources in the land whereever the heck it is that will give a desperatly needed boost to economic growth then its time to mine it by whatever means necessary and stop all the we must be spotlessly clean and green B.S.

Election next year. Can't see John Key risking a backlash. Can see NZers chewing on grass though soon.

[minimoke]

Election next year. Can't see John Key risking a backlash. Can see NZers chewing on grass though soon.
Its been tried already - they have already run the idea of mining on crown land as a way of pushing the economic envelope up the flagpole. The acid test was getting it past the Greenies who just weren't on the same wavelength. That idea ended up being a flash in the pan as public opinion threw a spanner in the works. Government isn't in the mining space so at the end of the day coal just isn't going to add to the knowledge economy. Best keep government out of it!

[manxman]

By the way anyone want to buy a fantastic 2 yr old caravan-unused on the road apart from delivery-going very cheap !
You could tow it behind my boat, also going for a very reasonable price if ASB cuts up rough.

[geezy]

I think if at all possible they should get on and allow it to be open cast. There's no point in N.Z. being 100% clean and green if we're bankrupt. S & P putting N.Z. on negative credit watch for a reason anyone ? Greenies and politically correct people have all the power. Its long overdue for N.Z's to get real. If there's valuable resources in the land whereever the heck it is that will give a desperatly needed boost to economic growth then its time to mine it by whatever means necessary and stop all the we must be spotlessly clean and green B.S.

Roger that Roger, i can only see NZ moving backwards another 10 years behind Australia with disallusioned kiwis running the show. Agriculture maybe? just take a look at PGW. Fantastic stuff. (not)

Get real NZ , Get real.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Fish will give you $1.00 cash on delivery for caravan

[Logen Ninefingers]

Geologist warned of danger of explosion three years ago
PAUL GORMAN AND KIRAN CHUG
Last updated 05:00 22/11/2010

A West Coast geologist warned about the threat of explosions from gas in the Pike River mine more than three years ago.

And a second mining expert says initial investigations of the mine were inhibited because of its location in Paparoa National Park.

Meanwhile, Canterbury University geologist David Bell has admitted his fears for the 29 trapped men, saying: "I don't believe the guys down there have got a hope."

Western Exploration director Murray Cave said in 2007 that the geological risks at the underground site included a pit bottom with deep, highly gassy coals and the associated risk of "outburst", or gas explosions.

He warned of the presence of an underground fault that had to be crossed at the mine site and pointed to Solid Energy's short-lived Mt Davy mine, which was shut in 1998 after three miners were killed in two accidents.

Yesterday, Mr Cave said the Pike River coal was at the "higher end of the scale" for gaseousness, and each tonne contained about 10 cubic metres of gas.
================================================== ================================================== ==============

This mine should never have gone ahead. It was unsafe - the method of mining in this environment was fundamentally unsafe. The minute they tried to ramp up production the whole place blew to kingdom come. How the hell were they going to get a million tonnes a year out?? I don't care if there will a trillion tonnes of coal in that seam; if the mine was one big explosion waiting to happen then it should never have gone ahead. It's pointless blaming greenies or whoever.....the decision to develop this mine was a decision putting corporate greed and the pursuit of $$$$$$$$ ahead of human life.

Solid Energy opened the Mt Davy mine in a similar environment and it had to be shut down completely in 1998 after 3 miners died....so how the hell did this death trap go ahead.

[friedegg]

Geologist warned of danger of explosion three years ago
PAUL GORMAN AND KIRAN CHUG
Last updated 05:00 22/11/2010

A West Coast geologist warned about the threat of explosions from gas in the Pike River mine more than three years ago.

And a second mining expert says initial investigations of the mine were inhibited because of its location in Paparoa National Park.

Meanwhile, Canterbury University geologist David Bell has admitted his fears for the 29 trapped men, saying: "I don't believe the guys down there have got a hope."

Western Exploration director Murray Cave said in 2007 that the geological risks at the underground site included a pit bottom with deep, highly gassy coals and the associated risk of "outburst", or gas explosions.

He warned of the presence of an underground fault that had to be crossed at the mine site and pointed to Solid Energy's short-lived Mt Davy mine, which was shut in 1998 after three miners were killed in two accidents.

Yesterday, Mr Cave said the Pike River coal was at the "higher end of the scale" for gaseousness, and each tonne contained about 10 cubic metres of gas.
================================================== ================================================== ==============

This mine should never have gone ahead. It was unsafe - the method of mining in this environment was fundamentally unsafe. The minute they tried to ramp up production the whole place blew to kingdom come. How the hell were they going to get a million tonnes a year out?? I don't care if there will a trillion tonnes of coal in that seam; if the mine was one big explosion waiting to happen then it should never have gone ahead. It's pointless blaming greenies or whoever.....the decision to develop this mine was a decision putting corporate greed and the pursuit of $$$$$$$$ ahead of human life.

Solid Energy opened the Mt Davy mine in a similar environment and it had to be shut down completely in 1998 after 3 miners died....so how the hell did this death trap go ahead.

so in the most tragic ways,what you say is correct and has come to pass....
im hoping by what you have posted also means you have never invested in prc or nzo because of this latest finding?

[Logen Ninefingers]

so in the most tragic ways,what you say is correct and has come to pass....
im hoping by what you have posted also means you have never invested in prc or nzo because of this latest finding?

I most certainly have invested in NZO and PRC, and I had some PRC options when the mine blew. Do you think I knew the mine was "at the higher end of the scale" for gaseousness, and that miners were getting sick from the amount of gas in the mine????

How many people who got caught out with PRC and NZO were true believers who really wanted to help our economy, and how many were 'share traders' hoping to make some easy moolah at - inevitably - someone elses expense?

Ultimately, this is not the 'ShareHolder' site, it's the 'sharetrader' site. When I've posted here before about me thinking that the share market was supposed to be all about providing NZ companies with access to capital, people almost split their sides laughing. Because sharetrading is all about off-loading the shares you bought cheaply on to some poor schmuck at a high price when there's a bit of good news, then hopefully buying the shares back off the poor schmuck on the next occasion there's a bit of bad news. Repeat the process, over and over. There's no work involved, it's just a stupid cyclical game. All the people feeling sick and sorry for themselves because they got caught holding when a share went dog instead of off-loading would have been only too happy to do it to someone else.

When you read these posts - go to the Pike River site and read the years of correspondence - you read the posts of the hopeless dreamers almost willing the SP up, throwing their last $10,000 into the pot in the hope of getting rich.....and you read the posts of the hopelessly cycnical, making money through gritted teeth off the niaive and the losers.

[friedegg]

I most certainly have invested in NZO and PRC, and I had some PRC options when the mine blew. Do you think I knew the mine was "at the higher end of the scale" for gaseousness, and that miners were getting sick from the amount of gas in the mine????


the miners getting sick so far is media,but had you done research you would have found the extract from the guy about his concerns for pike(its on post 83 of about 5000 posts)its called do your own research etc etc etc,i for one remember the post and the extract, but because lack of debate on the subject,it lead me to believe that this was a far away problem and i like many others never ever thought this to be a problem.
things are starting to concern me about pike and the allegations that will come forward will no doubt concern me more

[friedegg]

things concern me after reading back every post and pike report in the last few days and heres one..
in thier march 2009 quarterly they put this in thier safety section...
"Considerable effort has gone into operational and safety training. One recent initiative is the installation of transponders into the miners’ helmet lamps to provide instant information on their location if any difficulties were to arise."
now they put that in a report 2 years ago and obviously they never followed up and got the damn things,took me a minute to google and found them availible and bhp has been using the devices,so how much more did they put in reports that were only put in to please??

[the machine]

glad to see nzo trading again, although the 30c drop was a hard swallow.
as it turns out I bought 40,000 nzo today and also sold 30,000 bought in sept for a capital loss, with tax man paying for half the loss

not much point in not doing the trade and hope nzo sp recovers over next year

I expect a lot of the trades today were for same reason

M

[fabs]

MACHINE
endorse and acted on the same sentiments, live must go on.
If the heat in the Kitchen gets too hot for you, simply get out.

[friedegg]

well my crossing went through about 10 mins ago and doesnt look like it changed the market,so thats ok..
although i do feel raped

[Beagle]

well my crossing went through about 10 mins ago and doesnt look like it changed the market,so thats ok..
although i do feel raped

How do you feel about the Directors decision to throw another $12m at PRC with almost no hope whatsoever of getting the money back ? I'm really "thrilled" by that decision.

[the machine]

Roger, IMO it is the right thing to do.

M

[Balance]

How do you feel about the Directors decision to throw another $12m at PRC with almost no hope whatsoever of getting the money back ? I'm really "thrilled" by that decision.

Damned if they do (shareholders unhappy) and damned if they don't (promotor and backer of PRC so NZO has special responsibility to community and miners).

Between the two, they chose the right decision - human lives and communities matter.

[skid]

Im Happy for you guys to see that there has definitely been a bit of a bounce since first sale yesterday..Who knows how this thing will play out

[Beagle]

Damned if they do (shareholders unhappy) and damned if they don't (promotor and backer of PRC so NZO has special responsibility to community and miners).

Between the two, they chose the right decision - human lives and communities matter.

Yeah, they were snookered really, they simply had to do it.

My theory in life is every now and then you have to pat yourself on the back and say I've still got it....well a couple of days ago I put my b#lls on the line and valued NZO at 93 cents,, (post 10263), valuing the PRC component at nothing...and what do you know, that's exactly where they are right now.

[friedegg]

another trading halt tomorrow for you lot by the looks,cant see why if pikes value is already wiped out

[fabs]

At the moment NZOG's price is moving on speculation of what will happen with Pike, and we can certainly expect a lot of volatility going forward," said James Lee, head of institutional equities for First NZ Capital. "Ignoring fair value, NZOG put out statement saying Pike was worth 41 cents a share to them, so if it is no longer a going concern that's where we would start pricing."

[Bilo]

another trading halt tomorrow for you lot by the looks,cant see why if pikes value is already wiped out

12.5Mboe producing reserves. 350M market cap. $30 per BOE plus exploration potential. Plus coal. Pike is temporarily dead but the coasters will mine it, and the Brunner, and under the Paparoa National Park, to honour their men - bugger the greenies, bleed gas for electricity generation everywhere they can, aerate it through the escarpment, through lots of vents and the tunnel, and reduce the height of the escarpment a touch - no-one will notice in a few years. Take out every tonne of HCC 80MT plus - NZD20 billion for the Coasters and their families. Keep digging to make it 1 Billion for each life lost. Hopefully the miner's pension fund buys PRC although probably with Indian help. There not much cash nor enthusiasm left here for this mine anymore.

[digger]

another trading halt tomorrow for you lot by the looks,cant see why if pikes value is already wiped out

Good idea.The least we can do to show respect for the lose of 29 miners.NOG not only has an hugh investment in PIKE it also has responsbilities.It is a way of flying our own flag at half mask.

[friedegg]

why have another halt though?they should have remained in halt from friday until the outcome was finalised,ridiculous

looks like the only halt was aus because they were still trading when the 2nd explosion happened

[skid]

I dont get it, how could the asks start at 80 and the bids start at 103?

[skid]

seems to have sorted itself out now

[skid]

Regarding todays anouncement---In todays cuthroat corporate world its refreshing to see a bit of morality-Good on ya NZO!

[fungus pudding]

Regarding todays anouncement---In todays cuthroat corporate world its refreshing to see a bit of morality-Good on ya NZO!

Morality? Interesting.

[Beagle]

The market has dealt its inevitable blow to NZO writing off the full value of both the investment in PRC and money advanced to it, as predicted, BUT maybe PRC will get sufficient money back from its insurance policy to repay some or all its secured creditors, worth up to 16 cents per share to NZO ?

Perhaps NZO had allready been written down a bit at $1.20 due to the PRC factor before the sad event as lets face it PRC has been far from a stellar performer and the market allready knew that.

Perhaps the market has been a little too harsh on NZO. Disclosure, bought some more NZO this morning.

[Penfold]

I had a look through its financials the other day and thought surely worth 95c to $1.05. I bought shortly after it reopened. Feel like I got a bargain... time will tell.

The way I see it insurance and the mine can only surprise on the upside from here... and also NZOG may also look a little more appealing as a takeover target now.

[Beagle]

I had a look through its financials the other day and thought surely worth 95c to $1.05. I bought shortly after it reopened. Feel like I got a bargain... time will tell.

The way I see it insurance and the mine can only surprise on the upside from here... and also NZOG may also look a little more appealing as a takeover target now.

Good point about the company being a takeover target at these levels and no further downside.

I also think as the market becomes more aware of how the Kupe development is delivering the goods the realisation will sink in that this is a very strong operation even excluding any value from PRC.

I havn't noticed any stock buy-back activity lately, maybe the company sees it as appropriate for the market to find its own level before re-commencing buy-back's ?

[fish]

agreed it is a bargain at these levels . NZO is worth lots more . Price tui oil is close to nz $130 . NZO has the income and financial muscle to get PRC going again-no matter how long it takes to get the mine safe . Possibly a debt for equity swap or it could force liquidation-an option i feel less likely .

I feel prc is far more likely to have a takeover offer-maybe from an australian mining company with expertise in making safe gassy mines .I should stop speculating

[fabs]

Quite a few issues arise now, almost all dependent on the time and conclusions of various investigations, when they can start and when they finish and what they trow up, so not only months, lets say a long time.
If anybody knows of an Ins.co. that pays out anything without waiting for results of above, let me know.
Loss of earnings is probably based on current F/Y s which is the net of the last shipment say 3 mil., not projected future earnings, question is for how long? probably not for a long time IMHO, so that wont go far. As for the $100 mil. if there is proven negligence or other mitigating issues again long wait and very lucky to get the full amount. In the meantime i do not have to go into the details of the quite substantial ongoing costs ,before they can safely enter the mine if ever plus restoration Like wise the $12mil that NZO under contractual or for altruistic reasons has pumped into a now virtually bankrupt and indebted co. will soon be gobbled up.
As a NZO S/H i feel the management has to make some very important decisions based on commercial realism, free of wishful thinking and sentimentality. PRC sadly as co. has reached the end of its original format and concept.
And yes both co.s are takeover candidates, i would value PRC. as virtually zero at best. NZO future now depends which way the management jumps, more money into the bottomless pit and consequent more losses to its S/H or cut your losses and concentrate on its core activity where it should have been in the first place.

[Beagle]

Quite a few issues arise now, almost all dependent on the time and conclusions of various investigations, when they can start and when they finish and what they trow up, so not only months, lets say a long time.
If anybody knows of an Ins.co. that pays out anything without waiting for results of above, let me know.
Loss of earnings is probably based on current F/Y s which is the net of the last shipment say 3 mil., not projected future earnings, question is for how long? probably not for a long time IMHO, so that wont go far. As for the $100 mil. if there is proven negligence or other mitigating issues again long wait and very lucky to get the full amount. In the meantime i do not have to go into the details of the quite substantial ongoing costs ,before they can safely enter the mine if ever plus restoration Like wise the $12mil that NZO under contractual or for altruistic reasons has pumped into a now virtually bankrupt and indebted co. will soon be gobbled up.
As a NZO S/H i feel the management has to make some very important decisions based on commercial realism, free of wishful thinking and sentimentality. PRC sadly as co. has reached the end of its original format and concept.
And yes both co.s are takeover candidates, i would value PRC. as virtually zero at best. NZO future now depends which way the management jumps, more money into the bottomless pit and consequent more losses to its S/H or cut your losses and concentrate on its core activity where it should have been in the first place.

Good post Fabs, I think its fair that the market wants to see that the board of NZO can make cold hard independent and solely commercial decisions, before it'll get re-rated up.

The board need to realise that $12m won't last very long at all before the desperatly needy problem child clinging to life by a mere thread comes crawling at the door yet again, for goodness sake, how many times is it now ? at which point if PRC's future is still in limbo NZO directors need to demonstate they have the stomach to refuse further funding and put it back on ALL shareholders in PRC to either stump up with their share, e.g. cash issue 2 for 1 at say 20 cents or just walk away and wind it up.

Have the Directors at NZO got the stomach for it, or will we see more alturistic so called "secured" funding ?

[fabs]

Sorry Roger,
but i missed that part where it named the entities that guarantee the money that NZO is referring too of being secure, or does it simply mean if there is any liquidity at the end of this sad mess, secure creditors get to divide what is left.
May i suggest as UNPALATABLE as it sounds, that unless there is some unnamed Guarantor there is ZILCH to dole out.

[Beagle]

Sorry Roger,
but i missed that part where it named the entities that guarantee the money that NZO is referring too of being secure, or does it simply mean if there is any liquidity at the end of this sad mess, secure creditors get to divide what is left.
May i suggest as UNPALATABLE as it sounds, that unless there is some unnamed Guarantor there is ZILCH to dole out.

Mate, its just my dry and slightly warped sense of humour...yes the advances to PRC are "secured" against PRC assets but in this case we are in full agreement the word secured is a truly euphamistic term. The way the market dealt to NZO's price its clear the market thinks PRC is finished. A few years ago I had to put my beagle dog down, she was riddled with cancer but she'd been my best friend for what seems like forever but in reality was in fact 12 years. It really, really hurt, so I have a very small inkling what it must be like, but when you reach the end game you've just got no option but to do what you have too but it takes heaps of guts and I can't help wondering if NZO directors have the stomach for it or will go into denial and keep using their abundent cash flow to as you put it so well, keep pumping it into the bottomless pit.

On a more positive light I see oil pushing up again to the mid $80 U.S. a barrell mark and note that we've fallen to around the 74 cents American so receipts in Kiwi dollars are starting to look up. I believe the long term fundamentals are extremly positive for oil so provided the Directors can show they have a backbone ?, NZO must be good buying around current level's.

[friedegg]

pike is absolutely f#$%%d to put it mildly,no chance of opencast(which they knew,i didnt),yet they still allow the $12mill to be drawn upon?the $500000 gift to families?what next?
i thought business was business and santa head office was the northpole not nzo headquarters

[Unicorn]

pike is absolutely f#$%%d to put it mildly,no chance of opencast(which they knew,i didnt),yet they still allow the $12mill to be drawn upon?the $500000 gift to families?what next?
i thought business was business and santa head office was the northpole not nzo headquarters

A large number of people have lost their lives working for a venture that NZO has been closely involved with setting up, and is still the largest shareholder. There are substantial costs involved in securing the mine, recovering bodies and looking after the workforce.

The NZO response is, in my view, entirely appropriate. It shows corporate leadership that is sadly lacking in all too many companies.

[777]

In fact someone wrote a letter to the paper suggesting that NZO were a stingy bunch as it was only $17,000 odd per victim. "Shame on them" it said.

I say well done NZO. I have also donated to the fund personally.

NZO/PRC holder. And by a large amount.

[friedegg]

a sense of guilt perhaps for being involved too much,is nzo free from any enquiry outcome of this?

[friedegg]

In fact someone wrote a letter to the paper suggesting that NZO were a stingy bunch as it was only $17,000 odd per victim. "Shame on them" it said.

I say well done NZO. I have also donated to the fund personally.

NZO/PRC holder. And by a large amount.

yes all very well that death turns to money,my dear friend susan couch endeavored much more pain and grief at her work place and was hard up trying to get a place suitable to live a few months ago,pity her event never happened in the times of forums, live media 24 a day coverage,and business philantrophy

[blockhead]

That is an interesting thought you raise Mr Egg and one I have pondered myself, are the circumstances different when just one life is lost compared with the loss of many lives in one hit ?? The tragedy in my mind is equal for each family involved. We seem quick to set up funds right left and centre for welfare, education etc etc after a disaster such as Pike River (and I'm not against that) but if Bill the father of 6 kids is killed in an accident out the back of the farm tomorrow his family will likely not get any such assistance.

It is a disturbing thought but it is probably better to be lost in a "tragedy" rather than an innocuous accident away from the media.

[arjay]

Absolutely on the button Blocky. I have been discussing this with a mate who lives in Greymouth in relation to suicides, which are a bigger killer than the road toll and Pike put together. However, because the media are not allowed to report the details of suicides in the same way they are allowed to dramatise the other equally tragic events - the impact is less. I find it remarkable how so many people, their websites, newsletters, Facebook pages etc are jumping on the tribute wagon over Pike, yet if this tragedy were to force a PRC exec to jump out a window we would probably hear little of it, let alone have calls for their family to recieve a payout.

[Beagle]

In fact someone wrote a letter to the paper suggesting that NZO were a stingy bunch as it was only $17,000 odd per victim. "Shame on them" it said.

I say well done NZO. I have also donated to the fund personally.

NZO/PRC holder. And by a large amount.

The "donation" was in fact $12.5 million and I don't care what David Sailsbury say's it was a donation because NZO acknowledge they had a force majure clause in the continued funding agreement so they were within their legal rights to stop further funding and there's no question any prudent truly independent financier would have excecised that clause on the basis that on the balance of probabilities they're unlikely to be repaid. So that makes it $12 million donated, dressed up as further so called "secured" funding, a truly euphamistic term if ever there was one, and $500,000 which has been called what it really is, a donation.

So if you'll pardon the crude analogy, that's $12.5 million for 29 workers or a $431,000 donation per worker lost, I would have said that's an exceptionally generous, in fact grossly excessive donation to each workers family seeing as there's no legal obligation to do so. Its time for everyone to take a reality check...NZO are only a shareholder and have probably allready lost close on $100 million of shareholders funds on this black hole. With the share price haven been hammerred and going down the toilet even more, I for one are a little tired of NZO directors playing fast and apparently fairly loose with their cash flow.

Perhaps the directors of NZO have forgotten that shareholders in NZO have allready taken a severe beating ?

I wonder what mighty donation the Indian shareholders in PRC have made ? I'd bet my last dollar they would have taken a considerably less alturistic approach.

[777]

Two different things Roger.

They contributed $500,000 to a fund for the victim's families along with Pike's contribution.
The $12.5 million was to PRC not to the families.

[Beagle]

Two different things Roger.

They contributed $500,000 to a fund for the victim's families along with Pike's contribution.
The $12.5 million was to PRC not to the families.

I accept your point but nonetheless if the $12 million funding hadn't been forthcoming PRC wouldn't be able to continue operations and pay wages to the remaining employees and PRC wouldn't have been able to make their $500K contribution to the families so if we're strictly technical NZO funded a $1m donation to the victims families and a $11.5 million contribution to a company that looks absolutly finished by any rational analysis based on the balance of probabilities.

Any way you slice and dice it, it looks like an overall $12.5 million "donation" to me, we could argue all day about who the benificiaries of that are but I'm with friedegg on this one, its hard to see the commercial justification for it...and then there's the question i've previously speculated upon, as to whether the donations into this bottomless PRC pit end there ?

[fish]

definitely not a donation . NZO intends to get it back .
Exactly how will be worked out later but there are assets and a big resource and insurances which have probably been used as securities

[fabs]

FISH:
I too hope for recovery of some of the $50 Loan, whether it is a significant amount well, maybe more a case of when and how much.
In the meantime just a bit curious whether NZO is obliged under the SBB arrangement to wait till the S/P price goes up to $ 1.26 again before continuing.
When i asked DS at the 2009 AGM as the Share price tended to fall, [ was around 1. 08-1.10 ] he replayed nothing to gain by it, so now seeing that they happily bought at 1.26 plus, but have stopped now at 0.85 - 0.95
a bit puzzled.

[J R Ewing]

FISH:
I too hope for recovery of some of the $50 Loan, whether it is a significant amount well, maybe more a case of when and how much.
In the meantime just a bit curious whether NZO is obliged under the SBB arrangement to wait till the S/P price goes up to $ 1.26 again before continuing.
When i asked DS at the 2009 AGM as the Share price tended to fall, [ was around 1. 08-1.10 ] he replayed nothing to gain by it, so now seeing that they happily bought at 1.26 plus, but have stopped now at 0.85 - 0.95
a bit puzzled.

One thing that might be causing a halt to the share buyback is that NZO surely has some inside knowledge of the PRC situation that is not available to the market. So buying back shares while that situation continues could be considered insider trading.

[neopoleII]

whats to stop a takeover now that the sp is cheap?
if the divi had been about 10cps i dont think the sp would be where it is now.
kupe and tui doing well, plenty of cash in bank, even money being spent to burn share certificates..... sorry i mean cancel out.......

if shareholders had been looked after, they would of supported the sp right now, but with a 5cent divi its still at around bank rates.
a 10cent divi would of supported the sp.

anyway, the directors know what there doing...... dishing out cash every where but to the shareholder.

[Casa del Energia]

whats to stop a takeover now that the sp is cheap?
if the divi had been about 10cps i dont think the sp would be where it is now.
kupe and tui doing well, plenty of cash in bank, even money being spent to burn share certificates..... sorry i mean cancel out.......

if shareholders had been looked after, they would of supported the sp right now, but with a 5cent divi its still at around bank rates.
a 10cent divi would of supported the sp.

anyway, the directors know what there doing...... dishing out cash every where but to the shareholder.

Surely raising div would make little material difference to the sp (GPG usualy pays sod all in Divs (oops perhaps not best example since that's in the toilet at the mo' as well). ..

BUT here's an extreme Christmas wish - NZO take more equity in pike to prevent a t/o or receivership so that it (pike) can get up and running once someone has tipped some water over the fire. That way prc shareholders (me) still keep some equity and not asked to stump up to buy even more scrip themselves (since I'm in my usual financial state of desperately broke and can only buy half a loaf of bread at a time - this would seem to be an excellent plan).

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Casa del Energia (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?8386-Casa-del-Energia) That might be just as practical as flushing money down the toilet.

[fabs]

HEY CDE,
AS CRAZY AS YOUR PROPOSAL IS, WOULD NOT PUT THIS IDEA PAST THIS MANAGEMENT.
Thanks but no thanks.
PRC is a totally separate entity since its separation from NZO they are public CO's.both and have to make it on there own, in wait for it,
Conjunction with there S/H approval and interest at heart.
A real test it seems for the board of NZO.
As to raising Div,s or SBB, maybe saving money to bail out PRC in 9,18,or36 months time

[fabs]

One thing that might be causing a halt to the share buyback is that NZO surely has some inside knowledge of the PRC situation that is not available to the market. So buying back shares while that situation continues could be considered insider trading.

ON THE OTHER HAND
NZO T/O PRCs OTHER 70% FOR BETWEEN 20-40-MIL. COLLECT ABOUT THAT MUCH FROM INS.WAIT TILL THE DUST HAS SETTLED 45MILL DEPTH + INTEREST GOES ON THE BOOKS. PLUS HUGE TAX WRITE OFFS FROM FUTURE EARNINGS FROM PRC WHEN IN 1 1/2 - 2 YEARS CLEANED UP AND COMPLIANT WITH A NEW FORMAT BROUGHT TO FULL PRODUCTION.
FLOATED AS A GOING CONCERN.
ANY BODY CARE TO DUE THE SUMS ????

[Beagle]

One thing that might be causing a halt to the share buyback is that NZO surely has some inside knowledge of the PRC situation that is not available to the market. So buying back shares while that situation continues could be considered insider trading.

ON THE OTHER HAND
NZO T/O PRCs OTHER 70% FOR BETWEEN 20-40-MIL. COLLECT ABOUT THAT MUCH FROM INS.WAIT TILL THE DUST HAS SETTLED 45MILL DEPTH + INTEREST GOES ON THE BOOKS. PLUS HUGE TAX WRITE OFFS FROM FUTURE EARNINGS FROM PRC WHEN IN 1 1/2 - 2 YEARS CLEANED UP AND COMPLIANT WITH A NEW FORMAT BROUGHT TO FULL PRODUCTION.
FLOATED AS A GOING CONCERN.
ANY BODY CARE TO DUE THE SUMS ????

PRC is worthless....what's the point ?

[skid]

are you sure about that,Roger? He just said,for arguments sake, that NZO might have some inside information

[Balance]

PRC is worthless....what's the point ?

PRC could be worth a lot if it is allowed to reopen.

My guess is that NZO will sell its stake rather than get involved any further with this disastrous investment.

[Beagle]

PRC could be worth a lot if it is allowed to reopen.

My guess is that NZO will sell its stake rather than get involved any further with this disastrous investment.

I hope so. I would speculate if NZO came out to the market and declared that the money they've just "donated / funded" was full and final and they're not investing any further funds whatsoever in PRC the share price would react very favourably.

The mine is finished, that's almost certain and who in their right mind would back this company for maybe circa $100-200million even if they were allowed to re-open it. Certainly if there is the faintest of hope there's some ember of value left it'll only come from an overseas company that actually knows how to extract coal in a timely, efficient, effective and safe manner.

The market has spoken loud and clear and wiped the full value of the investment and funds advanced to PRC off NZO's share price, (my calculations were that resulted in a net price of 93 cents) and its below that by a small margin primarily because in my opinion the market is rightly concerned about the ability of NZO Directors to make truly objective commercial decisions.

In my opinion, NZO need to concentrate on what they're good at doing and stop wasting valuable cash flow on this bottomless pit.

[Balance]

I hope so. I would speculate if NZO came out to the market and declared that the money they've just "donated / funded" was full and final and they're not investing any further funds whatsoever in PRC the share price would react very favourably.

The mine is finished, that's almost certain and who in their right mind would back this company for maybe circa $100-200million even if they were allowed to re-open it. Certainly if there is the faintest of hope there's some ember of value left it'll only come from an overseas company that actually knows how to extract coal in a timely, efficient, effective and safe manner.

The market has spoken loud and clear and wiped the full value of the investment and funds advanced to PRC off NZO's share price, (my calculations were that resulted in a net price of 93 cents) and its below that by a small margin primarily because in my opinion the market is rightly concerned about the ability of NZO Directors to make truly objective commercial decisions.

In my opinion, NZO need to concentrate on what they're good at doing and stop wasting valuable cash flow on this bottomless pit.

Interesting that Chairman has come out and stated PRC aboslutely believes the mine will operate again.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4420000/Pike-River-says-mine-will-operate-again

[the machine]

I hope so. I would speculate if NZO came out to the market and declared that the money they've just "donated / funded" was full and final and they're not investing any further funds whatsoever in PRC the share price would react very favourably.

The mine is finished, that's almost certain and who in their right mind would back this company for maybe circa $100-200million even if they were allowed to re-open it. Certainly if there is the faintest of hope there's some ember of value left it'll only come from an overseas company that actually knows how to extract coal in a timely, efficient, effective and safe manner.

The market has spoken loud and clear and wiped the full value of the investment and funds advanced to PRC off NZO's share price, (my calculations were that resulted in a net price of 93 cents) and its below that by a small margin primarily because in my opinion the market is rightly concerned about the ability of NZO Directors to make truly objective commercial decisions.

In my opinion, NZO need to concentrate on what they're good at doing and stop wasting valuable cash flow on this bottomless pit.


John Dow seems to think the mine can reopen.

M

[J R Ewing]

It's one thing saying that the mine can re-open, that might well be possible. But whether that implies there is significant value in current Pike equity holdings is another question altogether. I guess there is value in the consents, above ground plant and development and the tunnel - but when the costs associated with the disaster are offset against this I suspect current equity holders including NZO have done their dough. But perhaps there is an opportunity for NZO and the other holders to invest capital in "PRC2" or whatever takes its place.

[Beagle]

Interesting that Chairman has come out and stated PRC aboslutely believes the mine will operate again.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4420000/Pike-River-says-mine-will-operate-again

Maybe there's some sort of happy pill dosage in the water down there, I'm sure you remember another iconic South Island company who's Chairman and CEO were saying almost exactly the same thing when the answer was clearly the opposite. (Balance will know who I'm talking about but for the sake of absolute clarity to anyone new to these blogs that is South Canterbury Finance).

Of course the MD and CEO would say that wouldn't they...are you losing your bloodhound ability to smell corporate B.S. ?

If so, just look at what happenned to NZO's share price and crunch the numbers, its clear the market thinks the value of existing PRC equity is a single round number and if PRC directors think the market has an appetite for investing in another major cash issue after all the broken promises, just have a look at where Wellington Drive Technologies are having to pitch their latest cash issue and that's for a business that's actually operating !!

Although its a different industry WDT's cash issue at 1.25 cents is a very good example of how severly the market is currently punishing companies that are repeat offenders when it comes to failing to perform and breeching promises. Should that read, punishing existing equity ?

So it begs the question, if there is a cash issue forthcoming, where would they try pitch it and who would be brave enough to underwrite it ?...oh of course, silly me, the answer to that is quite clear and its why their share price will remain under pressure until this mess is finally brought to its almost inevitable conclusion.

[duncan macgregor]

ROGER, The WDT sagga is directors on hugely inflated salaries screwing the gullable for as long and as much as they can. I think PRC started off making huge expensive mistakes, one example being the transport by barge fiasco. The directors were under extreme pressure to get it up and running faster, and bigger to satisfy the expectations of the share holders. In situations like that corners get cut, mistakes can be made, with the expected being taken over by the unexpected.
Surely in this day and age all power should shut down if gas or dust levels reach a certain level. After the first explosion the time window would have allowed a rescue attempt to get in and out with a report on survivors or what ever. This decision was made by a bloody police man who gave what ever remote chance of survival a kick in the guts. I should think the directors should take huge wage cuts in the short term if they want credability to reopen the mine. On the other hand if they dont then they can join the Directors From WTD and keep it going as long as the gullable keep forking out money to squander. Macdunk

[Kees]

Seems the chinese are sniffing around just on the radio maybe a saviour nzo to sell to them ?

[geezy]

why isnt the buy back in place?

[Flintstone]

IMO buyback should stay on hold till after PRC starts trading or there is some measure of PRC value.
At least we can see what NZO market value is without buyback distortion.

Buyback was good when the future looked boring, but I hope it stays on hold till after the drama passes.

[fish]

why isnt the buy back in place?


it would be good to know whether the buy-back has been suspended by nzo or if it is just at the brokers discretion .
With the strong oil price-now very close to Diggers prediction of a $100 by the end of the year nzo seems to be trading as if it has lost its whole investment in prc . The outcome of this is uncertain but i would not right it off completely as there still could be assets and an insurance policy . NZO has extended the expiry date of the loan to mid-february but i do suspect it is first ranking debt .

ps I see tapis is now us $96.07-a 2 year high . Tui oil is sold at a small premium to this

[digger]

IMO buyback should stay on hold till after PRC starts trading or there is some measure of PRC value.
At least we can see what NZO market value is without buyback distortion.

Buyback was good when the future looked boring, but I hope it stays on hold till after the drama passes.

Totally agree Flintstone. In fact i had considered emailing NZO to ask that same thing. In such an rare circumstances as the Mine blowing up it is not the job of NZO to reset the value of any company.It is for the market.
NZO now has to be very careful with its money and a buy back is no longer the best use of it.To my mind NZO should establish an intention as early as possible to maintain the 5 cent dividend.That would better put a floor under the SP than intervention of a buyback.
There are many unknowns about where to go with PIKE.Unless major changes are put in place NZO would be best to walk away from the mine.Roughtly in my mind PIKE-1 is gone.We just can not carry on as we have. PIKE-2 is something i am still working on and i believe i have some very good ideas to put to management but now is not yet the time.
But flintstone back to your post.Yes lets wait and see what the market says about PRC once it restarts trading,without any interference from NZO in the market.

[Nitaa]

What was the purpose for the original buy back. To me it does nothing more than temporarily give an artifical sense of confidence that doesnt really exist anyway. All it does is slightly artifically prop up a shareprice of a stock with all things being equal. It certainly doesn't contribute to creating wealth for the company and it has a neagtive impact on cash reserves and ultimately cash flow. I would never say not do it. If NZO has more money than it can do with then that might be a good situation. None the less I ultimately see as management saying we don't have confidence in buying other business ventures, exploration permits etc.

Kupe is a great investment and they have doen well out of Tui. Where is their growth going to come from. For me, the last 2 years with strong cash coffers was an opportune time to venture out, graps other opportunities and I feel there were like possums in the headlights and have missed an opportunity of a decade. Anyone care to say where future growth is going to come from because if your main concern is about share buy back etc then you are better putting your money into term deposits.

[fabs]

NITA
i said it before on this forum and know it sounds crazy but they probably still look to save the money to salvage PRC, until they can untangle themselves out of that, or come up with some bullet proof scheme to do so S/H will be in for some fun.
But they may have some knowledge up there sleeves that the rest of us are unaware of.

[Beagle]

NITA
i said it before on this forum and know it sounds crazy but they probably still look to save the money to salvage PRC, until they can untangle themselves out of that, or come up with some bullet proof scheme to do so S/H will be in for some fun.
But they may have some knowledge up there sleeves that the rest of us are unaware of.

Or they could be just a bunch of Possums staring transfixed into the headlights with no idea WTF to do....until all the investigations into PRC are complete, perhaps a year or even potentially longer ?

The market has already wiped the full value of the PRC investment off NZO's share price, together with the full value of funds advanced to PRC and for good measure a bit more besides so it appears there is concern regarding the NZO directors objectivity in relation to their (ongoing ?) committment to PRC and its effect on NZO..

"Throwing good money after bad" seems to be an expression that very readily comes to my mind, anyone else thinking along the same lines ?

[777]

Keep talking it down Roger I have some money coming available next week.

[Beagle]

Keep talking it down Roger I have some money coming available next week.


LOL.... Always happy to call it as I see it.

[neopoleII]

since were talking down........
TR was and is always after a whale, thats why the divi stream is low,
pike is big...... real big, so big it could wipe out NZO as well.
so ......... TR will go forth and redevelop the mine and will use money from anywhere he can get his hands on.
share holders are the easiest target.

[fish]

since were talking down........
TR was and is always after a whale, thats why the divi stream is low,
pike is big...... real big, so big it could wipe out NZO as well.
so ......... TR will go forth and redevelop the mine and will use money from anywhere he can get his hands on.
share holders are the easiest target.

TR is far too shrewd for that . He has a big holding in nzo . PRC is a separate company . NZO is the biggest creditor so come february will have a lot of say over the future of prc but will not want to take over the liabilities of prc .David Salisbury told me in October that coal is not the business of nzo and its shareholding in prc will be sold .

[Balance]

LOL.... Always happy to call it as I see it.

Receivership for PRC - http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4433480/Receivership-looks-on-the-cards-for-Pike-River-Coal

Will sobrer up some of the punters out there.

So will NZO throw good money after bad?

[Beagle]

Receivership for PRC - http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4433480/Receivership-looks-on-the-cards-for-Pike-River-Coal

Will sobrer up some of the punters out there.

So will NZO throw good money after bad?

Quite right Balance. Receivership looks the logical call after PRC's truly appalling track record to date. If they'd been hitting their numbers and cutting out 80,000 tonnes an month like they should have been 18 months ago it might be a different matter but frankly the only thing PRC have demonstrated they're any good at mining, is investors pockets.

How many times did they do additional capital raising's mate ?

[Balance]

Quite right Balance. Receivership looks the logical call after PRC's truly appalling track record to date. If they'd been hitting their numbers and cutting out 80,000 tonnes an month like they should have been 18 months ago it might be a different matter but frankly the only thing PRC have demonstrated they're any good at mining, is investors pockets.

How many times did they do additional capital raising's mate ?

The best part is that there are posters here who actually believe the company when the director(s) told them - "This will be the last one!"

No prizes for guessing why the directors all have long noses.

[fabs]

{ POSTED ON THIS FORUM ON THE 22/11TH BY ME, A TOTAL LAY PERSON.
WHAT TOOK ALL THE EXPERTS THAT LONG, INCL. NZO? CAN THE EXECUTIVES OF THIS CO. SERIOUSLY LOOK THEMSELVES IN THE MIRROR EVERY PAY DAY WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE? }
First thing NZO board, turn of money supply to PRC as a 30% S/H nzo is not responsible to bring mine to prod. now that the co. is bankrupt there is no way they get any of it back.
Cost to restart the mine to production level, probably 150 to 200 mil. Think of all the possible and likely scenarios
TIMELINE:
To restart
Short, 9 -18 mts.
Medium, 2-5yrs.
Long, 5- never.
PRC IS NOT DEAD IN THE WATER , IT IS SUNK.
Time for NZO the cut loss and concentrate fulltime on it,s core activity.
The gamble has not payed off
Irregardless the outcome of the present Tragedy!

[Beagle]

{ POSTED ON THIS FORUM ON THE 22/11TH BY ME, A TOTAL LAY PERSON.
WHAT TOOK ALL THE EXPERTS THAT LONG, INCL. NZO? CAN THE EXECUTIVES OF THIS CO. SERIOUSLY LOOK THEMSELVES IN THE MIRROR EVERY PAY DAY WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE? }
First thing NZO board, turn of money supply to PRC as a 30% S/H nzo is not responsible to bring mine to prod. now that the co. is bankrupt there is no way they get any of it back.
Cost to restart the mine to production level, probably 150 to 200 mil. Think of all the possible and likely scenarios
TIMELINE:
To restart
Short, 9 -18 mts.
Medium, 2-5yrs.
Long, 5- never.
PRC IS NOT DEAD IN THE WATER , IT IS SUNK.
Time for NZO the cut loss and concentrate fulltime on it,s core activity.
The gamble has not payed off
Irregardless the outcome of the present Tragedy!

It was a good post fabs.

Balance - As we know so well, there's only so many excuses, so many delays. so many creative projections the market will tolerate and the it becomes like the boy who cried "wolf" people simply call it as it is, its complete B.S. plain and simple.

Chalkie doesn't like PRC1's chances either:-
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion/4434744/Doubtful-future-for-Pike-investors

No question P.W. did a good job managing the media and all other matters surrounding the tragedy, but perhaps people have forgotten he was overall mine manager before becoming CEO so the buck has to stop with him in more than one way, and on any objective analysis the business "performance" of PRC has been truly pathetic.

[the machine]

Has anyone heard if there has been a decision to drill PEP 38483 - decision needed by December 8

M

[fabs]

Are they still into drilling for Oil & Gas?

[blockhead]

Halt on trading for NZO

???

[BigBob]

Halt on trading for NZO

???

My guess is that it's one of four (in order of likelihood)...:

1. Additional bad news about longer term Pike exposure
2. They have received a take-over offer from some overseas, opportunistic vulture
3. They have (finally) found something to spend some of their war chest on
4. Bad news from Tui or Kupe

[blockhead]

Option (2) was something that came to my mind as well however I discounted it because there was not a sudden spike in the sp last week.

I'll go for option (1) but can't see how there could be any worse news than already exists.

[Balance]

Option (2) was something that came to my mind as well however I discounted it because there was not a sudden spike in the sp last week.

I'll go for option (1) but can't see how there could be any worse news than already exists.

Market has written PRC off.

It will simply be an update on what PRC means now to NZO?

[neopoleII]

the market might right it off, but the government cant just walk away that easy, not with $billions of coal sitting there.
what ever happens, nzo will be involved.

[Beagle]

Its quite clear the market values PRC at nothing but is concerned about NZO's future exposure in relation to it.
Hopefully this material announcement, if you can call it that, if its in relation to PRC will provide some much needed clarity on the situation, but wern't NZO saying they're investigating some overseas acquisition recently ?

That would be my favourite pick, followed by hopefully clarifying that they're writing PRC off completly and refusing to provide further funding / donations, depending on how you look at it.

I doubt there is a takeover for NZO as I suspect if one was forthcoming we would have allready seen some prior movement in the share price.

[digger]

Its quite clear the market values PRC at nothing but is concerned about NZO's future exposure in relation to it.
Hopefully this material announcement, if you can call it that, if its in relation to PRC will provide some much needed clarity on the situation, but wern't NZO saying they're investigating some overseas acquisition recently ?

That would be my favourite pick, followed by hopefully clarifying that they're writing PRC off completly and refusing to provide further funding / donations, depending on how you look at it.

I doubt there is a takeover for NZO as I suspect if one was forthcoming we would have allready seen some prior movement in the share price.

Very much my thinking to Roger. What about some action on PPP. Either a sell out or a takeover. PPP is pretty much a gift at current SP so if you add 30% on for takeover it is still not that far away.
So i am either voting for a PPP takeover or some market statement regarding the final on PRC.

[Beagle]

Good point Digger. Maybe PPP is in play ?

P.S. I just checked on announcements on PPP and there's nothing and I would have thought that if PPP was in play in relation to NZO would'nt that amount to a compelling argument for the directors of PPP to also request a trading halt ?

NZO gave no time frame for its likely announcement so anyone loooking to trade their shares today has to sit around twidling their thumbs waiting...is this best practice for company directors or don't they care ?

[the machine]

no announcement 'yet' on asx - market opens in 15 minutes

M

[Balance]

Relax, guys - trading halts can last for days.

[icarus]

"Five people are believed to be injured after a boat capsized off the Taranaki coast this morning.

The Westpac rescue helicopter was deployed and local surf life guards despatched IRBs after the capsize.

Nearby recreational vessels were believed to at the scene of the capsize, off Opunake, south of New Plymouth.

All five occupants of the boat are out of the water but emergency services report all are injured." Stuff.co.nz

Maybe this has something to do with it? not sure if it's in their area of operations?. Maybe not?.

[OutToLunch]

It's PRC going into receivership...

[swissboy]

see PRC refer ASX Trading halt details NZO places PRC into receivership

[Baddarcy]

Hmm surprised SP has dropped, i would have thought that was good news for NZO, increases chance of getting some money back at least?

[the machine]

Has anyone heard if there has been a decision to drill PEP 38483 - decision needed by December 8

M

in response to my email, crown minerals advise matter is confidential

M

[Lion]

Hmm surprised SP has dropped, i would have thought that was good news for NZO, increases chance of getting some money back at least?

Indeed. NZO had been written down by more than the value of its holding in PRC before.
Talk about irrational market - phew!

[J R Ewing]

Indeed. NZO had been written down by more than the value of its holding in PRC before.
Talk about irrational market - phew!

Given that NZO had said earlier that they wanted out of PRC as it was non-core business, I assume they will simply try to recover what they can from “secured” loans and won’t take part in the next recapitalisation of PRC if and when that happens. If that is the case, then NZO is oversold if you agree with the pre-explosion valuation of PRC to NZO.

[digger]

Indeed. NZO had been written down by more than the value of its holding in PRC before.
Talk about irrational market - phew!

What a sad end to 14 years of trying to get pike up and running.I never would have guessed the final outcome would have been the blowing up of the mine.I probably was the strongest supporter of NZO sticking with PIKE but in the final an-alys it just turned out to be 100% wrong. Amen
now forever and a day there will be inquires.

[Balance]

What a sad end to 14 years of trying to get pike up and running.I never would have guessed the final outcome would have been the blowing up of the mine.I probably was the strongest supporter of NZO sticking with PIKE but in the final an-alys it just turned out to be 100% wrong. Amen
now forever and a day there will be inquires.

I am sure NZO's management are grateful and welcomed your support at every turn in the last 3 years.

Pity about the mushrooms however.

[percy]

With NZO appointing the receiver,means receiver works for the benefit of NZO.

[Beagle]

Hmm surprised SP has dropped, i would have thought that was good news for NZO, increases chance of getting some money back at least?

Agreed, BUT I'm on record as questioning the Directors commercial independence making what at the time I was and still am adamant amounted to a $12m donation to PRC when the writing was clearly on the wall.

The Directors admitted that further advances under the $25 million funding facility could have been stopped, i.e. there was a force majure clause, but then went on and immediatly provided the FULL remaining balance under the loan agreement saying it was the right thing to do. There was nothing to stop them making partial further advances which would have at the very least been the more conservative thing to do, was there ?

I seriously call into question the Directors independence on this matter and will be bringing this up at the next AGM if not long before directly with David Sailsbury.

I have lost considerable confidence in the company and its directors to make objective, rational and indpendent decisions and perhaps the market is saying the same by pricing the company down today...on the other hand it could be just negative sentiment but I've made it crystal clear which theory I subscribe too. TR is probably the one to blame on this one so I'll be having a crack at him too.

[Balance]

Agreed, BUT I'm on record as questioning the Directors commercial independence making what at the time I was and still am adamant amounted to a $12m donation to PRC when the writing was clearly on the wall.

The Directors admitted that further advances under the $25 million funding facility could have been stopped, i.e. there was a force majure clause, but then went on and immediatly provided the FULL remaining balance under the loan agreement saying it was the right thing to do. There was nothing to stop them making partial further advances which would have at the very least been the more conservative thing to do, was there ?

I seriously call into question the Directors independence on this matter and will be bringing this up at the next AGM if not long before directly with David Sailsbury.

I have lost considerable confidence in the company and its directors to make objective, rational and indpendent decisions and perhaps the market is saying the same by pricing the company down today...on the other hand it could be just negative sentiment but I've made it crystal clear which theory I subscribe too. TR is probably the one to blame on this one so I'll be having a crack at him too.

NZO will trade now at a deep discount to any kind of valuation - hopeless management and hopeless directors.

[Lego_Man]

I agree, business is business. Ridiculous and emotive decision to piss that money down the drain.

[Beagle]

NZO will trade now at a deep discount to any kind of valuation - hopeless management and hopeless directors.

We both know for a fact that any truly independent lender acting in a prudent and conservative manner would have excercised their force majure rights. The directors said at the time there were sound commercial reasons for their decision. I wonder if these so called sound commercial reasons will stand up to close examination in the cold light of day. Looking forward to putting this too them at the next AGM and holding them accountable so they can explain to us all why they appear to have given away $12m for what prima facie appear to be nothing more than sentimental reasons. Media report late last week saying PRC employees promised their Christmas bonus, we all know where that money is coming from. Yes that's right, that's yet another bonus on top of their bonus for such "wonderful" performance with hydro extraction, and I can't help but speculate on what Chrismas bonus NZO staff are up for considering their "wonderful" business performance this year.

If NZO have such vast volumes of free cash flow to throw around perhaps they need to remember who are the owners of the company and reward us with our Christmas bonus, who would say No to another dividend ?

[fish]

We both know for a fact that any truly independent lender acting in a prudent and conservative manner would have excercised their force majure rights. The directors said at the time there were sound commercial reasons for their decision. I wonder if these so called sound commercial reasons will stand up to close examination in the cold light of day. Looking forward to putting this too them at the next AGM and holding them accountable so they can explain to us all why they appear to have given away $12m for what prima facie appear to be nothing more than sentimental reasons. Media report late last week saying PRC employees promised their Christmas bonus, we all know where that money is coming from. Yes that's right, that's yet another bonus on top of their bonus for such "wonderful" performance with hydro extraction, and I can't help but speculate on what Chrismas bonus NZO staff are up for considering their "wonderful" business performance this year.

If NZO have such vast volumes of free cash flow to throw around perhaps they need to remember who are the owners of the company and reward us with our Christmas bonus, who would say No to another dividend ?

Commercial reasons must mean the directors expect to get it back . They had offers for their shareholding in the company before the tragedy . Maybe they expect the liquidators to sell the company for more than the value of their loan .

[Lizard]

Roger,

Agree that many investors would have known it was pretty clear by the Saturday after the explosion that receivership was inevitable. But also, that it was completely unacceptable to the general public of New Zealand to say it out loud at that time. Was that worth an additional $12m (of secured debt)? I guess that would have been a difficult call for NZO management on the day, but I can understand no one having the stomach for it. Can you picture how those press conferences would have looked on the Monday or the press (and talkback!) reaction? It would have made for an interesting board room discussion!

Yes, they knowingly put another $12m at risk, but I'm guessing they did it with the knowledge of the value of the above ground assets and knowing that they could still pull the plug on a better day. They also put themselves in a position to pick up the rights to the coal resource at a discount - though at that (pre further explosion) point, they may have had a more optimistic view on timeframe for possible mining.

It was a tough call, but at one level, I find their actions honourable and applaud them.

[peat]

yes I agree Lizard
I'm not sure if its so relevant for NZO or not but PR can get pretty ugly in situations like this

[fabs]

Is it possible that NZO has spent big MONEY, on legal advice to get the Receivers in, if so best decision in 2 years, hard to see present Management having come up with it, given the time lag.

[friedegg]

yes I agree Lizard
I'm not sure if its so relevant for NZO or not but PR can get pretty ugly in situations like this


why would nzo be affected by bad pr,they dont sell cans of beer to the public,they donated thier $500,000 to the tradgedy,the 12mill was not good

[Beagle]

Roger,

Agree that many investors would have known it was pretty clear by the Saturday after the explosion that receivership was inevitable. But also, that it was completely unacceptable to the general public of New Zealand to say it out loud at that time. Was that worth an additional $12m (of secured debt)? I guess that would have been a difficult call for NZO management on the day, but I can understand no one having the stomach for it. Can you picture how those press conferences would have looked on the Monday or the press (and talkback!) reaction? It would have made for an interesting board room discussion!

Yes, they knowingly put another $12m at risk, but I'm guessing they did it with the knowledge of the value of the above ground assets and knowing that they could still pull the plug on a better day. They also put themselves in a position to pick up the rights to the coal resource at a discount - though at that (pre further explosion) point, they may have had a more optimistic view on timeframe for possible mining.

It was a tough call, but at one level, I find their actions honourable and applaud them.

I can certainly see where you are coming from Lizard and agree there would be a PR disaster well baked in if NZO had excercised their force majure cessation of further funding rights, and to be honest its really gut wrenching stuff not for the faint of heart however I would have thought a more measured or balanced approach rather than just throwing all the remaining undrawn line of credit at them might have been prudent given the fact that they were allready well secured over PRC's assets, whatever they may or may not be worth.

Leaving emotions aside it still looks like a hasty sentimentally based decision to me. Business, especially in this new GFC environment can be a cold hard place and there can be little question a truly independent lender would have acted in a more prudent and carefully measured manner. Tony Radford's long association with both companies needs close examination in my view, there's a very clear lack of independence perhaps if he hasn't got the stomach to make prudent and carefully balanced commercial decisions its time to retire ?

There's no question I'll be putting this matter to him at the next AGM and lets agree to see how they justify this based on what they said were sound commercial reasons in due course, after all a donation is a donation and to call the full payment of all remainign funds available in one hit anything else, looks like very creative accounting to me. NZO are only a 30% shareholder and had no legal obligation to provide the remaining funding to PRC, especially all at once.

Call me a cynical bugger if you like, or a rational prudent businessman, (I prefer that), but I'm sure I don't need to ask the question what did the other substantial shareholders (Indian owners) of PRC contribute / donate...the answer should be obvious to all.

[Lizard]

To be honest, Roger... it was me worrying they'd have to do the VA or receivership announcement by the Tuesday after... and you that convinced me the reality was that they wouldn't.... So you called it right - and, in my heart, I am happier that you had the clearer call on that one...

[Beagle]

To be honest, Roger... it was me worrying they'd have to do the VA or receivership announcement by the Tuesday after... and you that convinced me the reality was that they wouldn't.... So you called it right - and, in my heart, I am happier that you had the clearer call on that one...

Thanks for that Liz. I certainly acknowledge it has been and continues to be a real gut wrenching time for all concerned, and there's no question that they have done the politically correct thing but where's their hard nosed business approach, there's plenty of cash flow from Tui and Kupe but to me it begs the question of when there's plenty of lard in the cupboard if its not all too easy to play fast and loose with shareholders money ? There are five independent directors on NZO's board, surely this was a split decision of the board, they can't all be sentimental emotional decison makers ? or were there really sound commercially based reasons for their decision as they said, if so I can't wait to hear them.

[Unicorn]

Agreed, BUT I'm on record as questioning the Directors commercial independence making what at the time I was and still am adamant amounted to a $12m donation to PRC when the writing was clearly on the wall.

The Directors admitted that further advances under the $25 million funding facility could have been stopped, i.e. there was a force majure clause, but then went on and immediatly provided the FULL remaining balance under the loan agreement saying it was the right thing to do. There was nothing to stop them making partial further advances which would have at the very least been the more conservative thing to do, was there ?

I seriously call into question the Directors independence on this matter and will be bringing this up at the next AGM if not long before directly with David Sailsbury.

I have lost considerable confidence in the company and its directors to make objective, rational and indpendent decisions and perhaps the market is saying the same by pricing the company down today...on the other hand it could be just negative sentiment but I've made it crystal clear which theory I subscribe too. TR is probably the one to blame on this one so I'll be having a crack at him too.

The donation made by NZO was $500,000. I have no problem with that.

The remaining $12M odd of the available loan money was passed through to PRC fairly quickly. That was not a donation - it was in the form of first ranking debt. The question of how secure it is depends on the value of PRC and its various assets - road, loadout plant, processing plant, tunnel, equipment, insurance policies and coal reserves. Provided those assets prove to be worth $50M odd (approximate first ranking debt level), then that $12M will come back to NZO. If PRC proves to be worth between $26M and $50M then for anything over $26M about half should come back to NZO (split between NZO and BNZ).

My understanding is that by advancing the remainder of the loan at the time it did, NZO surpassed BNZ as the major first ranking debt holder and thereby placed itself in the position of being able to control the receivership. That is not a bad thing at all. If the $12M is repaid and the NZO appointed receiver recovers additional value beyond the $50M of first ranking debt that should help pay the NZO bonds and possibly even result in some remaining shareholder value. NZO stands to gain significantly from any shareholder value that is recovered. Had a BNZ appointed receiver been in control, then it would have suited BNZ had that receiver quickly recovered only its $23M odd plus the NZO $13M odd that had been the total first ranking debt. The NZO receiver will obviously have very different priorities, and that could well prove to be very valuable to NZO.

Of course NZO presented this as being a noble thing to do - but underneath there appear to be very strong business reasons for doing so.

[Lion]

A rare breath of common sense there, Unicorn, compared to some of the bluster posted by many. Easy to criticise after the fact. Ah, the insight of hindsight.

Among the assets you mentioned were coal reserves - do PRC own them? They could be valuable, no?

[Xerof]

Unicorn is exactly right - NZO couched their cash injection in emotive terms to fit the sad occasion, but clearly had a receivership foremost in their minds, and was a 'calculated move'. They 'control' the receivership from here, with BNZ tagging along for the ride.

Nothing can or will happen now in terms of extracting value from their equity stake (along with all equally ranking shareholders) until the inquiries are done and dusted. That might take several years. In the meantime, secured creditors best hope is for a decent insurance claim of sufficient size to be able to cover their secured debt position. The staff do have a preferential position ahead of them, but for how much is unknown. Not likely to be as generous as Peter was intimating, but it will be guided by prevailing legislation.

I think the coal reserves being talked about will be what was stockpiled (sold to Solid Energy I believe, and in the scheme of things - peanuts) The external infrastructure may have some value on a break-up basis, but would clearly have greater value if the Receivers are prepared to wait for the outcome of the inquiries, at which stage, if practicable, they will sell the whole project to the highest bidder.

IMO, PRC shares will not trade again, but may have residual value in a trade sale in years to come, and be pro-rata settled by the receivers across all shareholders

Good luck with your questioning at the AGM or earlier, Roger.

[shasta]

Unicorn is exactly right - NZO couched their cash injection in emotive terms to fit the sad occasion, but clearly had a receivership foremost in their minds, and was a 'calculated move'. They 'control' the receivership from here, with BNZ tagging along for the ride.

Nothing can or will happen now in terms of extracting value from their equity stake (along with all equally ranking shareholders) until the inquiries are done and dusted. That might take several years. In the meantime, secured creditors best hope is for a decent insurance claim of sufficient size to be able to cover their secured debt position. The staff do have a preferential position ahead of them, but for how much is unknown. Not likely to be as generous as Peter was intimating, but it will be guided by prevailing legislation.

I think the coal reserves being talked about will be what was stockpiled (sold to Solid Energy I believe, and in the scheme of things - peanuts) The external infrastructure may have some value on a break-up basis, but would clearly have greater value if the Receivers are prepared to wait for the outcome of the inquiries, at which stage, if practicable, they will sell the whole project to the highest bidder.

IMO, PRC shares will not trade again, but may have residual value in a trade sale in years to come, and be pro-rata settled by the receivers across all shareholders

Good luck with your questioning at the AGM or earlier, Roger.

Doesnt NZO also own coal production rights?

They must be worth something if the mine is ever deemed a going concern

[Xerof]

That would be part of the value in a sale, but the qualification in your second sentence requires a determination first

[shasta]

That would be part of the value in a sale, but the qualification in your second sentence requires a determination first

Theres plenty of hard coking coal still in the mine, that the Japanese steel makers will want, gunna be tough decision to close the mine for good, given the expense invested to date.

Never re-opening the mine will be yet another kick in the guts for those who worked there, not to mention those who died, the West Coast needs it up & running

[skid]

shareprice all over the place yesterday-started at 89-dropped to 83 on news of recievership-climbed back up to 89-and settled at 87-there are obviously some differing views on NZO value in relation to whats going on these days

[swissboy]

If the PRC receivership guaranties 1st payout to NZO and both Tui and Kupe are producing at full bore as expected, Why did the s/p not rise yesterday up to $3.00 or at least where it was at $1.60 12 month ago???

[Beagle]

The donation made by NZO was $500,000. I have no problem with that.

The remaining $12M odd of the available loan money was passed through to PRC fairly quickly. That was not a donation - it was in the form of first ranking debt. The question of how secure it is depends on the value of PRC and its various assets - road, loadout plant, processing plant, tunnel, equipment, insurance policies and coal reserves. Provided those assets prove to be worth $50M odd (approximate first ranking debt level), then that $12M will come back to NZO. If PRC proves to be worth between $26M and $50M then for anything over $26M about half should come back to NZO (split between NZO and BNZ).

My understanding is that by advancing the remainder of the loan at the time it did, NZO surpassed BNZ as the major first ranking debt holder and thereby placed itself in the position of being able to control the receivership. That is not a bad thing at all. If the $12M is repaid and the NZO appointed receiver recovers additional value beyond the $50M of first ranking debt that should help pay the NZO bonds and possibly even result in some remaining shareholder value. NZO stands to gain significantly from any shareholder value that is recovered. Had a BNZ appointed receiver been in control, then it would have suited BNZ had that receiver quickly recovered only its $23M odd plus the NZO $13M odd that had been the total first ranking debt. The NZO receiver will obviously have very different priorities, and that could well prove to be very valuable to NZO.

Of course NZO presented this as being a noble thing to do - but underneath there appear to be very strong business reasons for doing so.

What you've suggested seems like a rational scenario to me, assumming of course there's any recovery of funds at all after the receivers fees, site restoration fees, all recovery fees, legal fees, lawsuits ?, redundencies and so on.....

Without wanting to overstate the obvious the market has emphatically spoken and written off the full value of both NZO's investment in, and all funds advanced to PRC, so clearly the consensus is there it is likely there is no money to be recovered, so without wanting to appear to be dogmatic, clearly the market thinks the $12m
was a quassi donation.

If the market was happy with NZO's handling of the PRC matter why is the share price in the doldrums at circa 85 cents ? All those extra team members David Salisbury has brought in to look at acquisitions and all those huge salaries over quite a length of time now and what have they done ?

Who would welcome an experienced overseas company takeover and running the show more efficiently and effectivly ? I would.

[Casa del Energia]

If the PRC receivership guaranties 1st payout to NZO and both Tui and Kupe are producing at full bore as expected, Why did the s/p not rise yesterday up to $3.00 or at least where it was at $1.60 12 month ago???

Fear. The market doesn't like uncertainty - it doesn't matter that Tui & Kupe are major league cash cows - - a stampede is a stampede. BUT this is where investors with a cool logical head and a certain amount of guts can reserve their spot on the Bermuda waterfront.

[Balance]

Outside of Tui and Kupe, both run by specialist firms and where NZO only has shareholdings, what else can NZO's management point to as successes?

Exploration? Zippo.

Investments? Try PPP - sitting on a big fat loss.

PRC? Oh dear!

The market is rightly discounting the value-minus capabilities on NZO.

So why invest in NZO when you have world class companies like Woodside in Australia to invest in?

[bull....]

NZO is like an option now, unless they continuely replenish reserves the instrinsic value of the company declines over time.

[fabs]

WITHOUT PREJUDICE:

BALANCE:

My sentiments now for at least more than 12 months.
22 Staff a board with supposed 200 years experience
A head Honcho on wait for it 1/2 mil. per ann. only a question of time before he leaves on his own accord i guess, although would not hold my breath, will have impeccable timing to milk this to the hilt.
Tony is the only one in that mix that can claim and be credited with meaningful contribution.

[neopoleII]

imagine how low the sp would be now if they didnt purchace on market and burn....cancel the umpteen shares.
waste of money, and the 12mil gift to prc, and now talk of maximum payouts and possibly bonuses to miners.
the list goes on and on with money going everywhere but the shareholders.
how many $1.50 options were placed a couple years back....
nzo...... look after your shareholders.
ps if any overseas raiders are out there...... now is a good time to take over nzo,
at least the 7 or 8 million 1cent shares wont be cashed by directors.
god nzo top office make me sick.

[Beagle]

imagine how low the sp would be now if they didnt purchace on market and burn....cancel the umpteen shares.
waste of money, and the 12mil gift to prc, and now talk of maximum payouts and possibly bonuses to miners.
the list goes on and on with money going everywhere but the shareholders.
how many $1.50 options were placed a couple years back....

nzo...... look after your shareholders.

ps if any overseas raiders are out there...... now is a good time to take over nzo,
at least the 7 or 8 million 1cent shares wont be cashed by directors.
god nzo top office make me sick.Good post mate. Can't help but speculate if there was just one good accountant and no other staff at NZO, who accounted for the money received from Tui and Kupe and distributed the lot to shareholders what would the annual dividends be then ? (Any Australian analyst reading this, please feel free to try and crunch the numbers and pass this on to any company's CEO who's looking for cheap acquisitions).

DS and the expensive team hired to research all these opportunites they say they've been looking at havn't earned their keep by any stretch of the imagination and its time for heads to roll over the PRC fiasco and the management team to be slimmed down and more of the milk from the Tui and Kupe cash cows to flow where it rightfully belongs. (Lets remember that NZO management assured us they had run their own ruler over PRC operations are were more than happy with PRC's modus operendi)

Its a long. long way down from the $1.50 option excercise all the way down to 85 cents when global markets have generally recovered over that timeframe so for NZO shares to nearly halve in value, management and directors should be profoundly dissappointed with themselves. Quite obviously I'm far from a happy camper but for what its worth I'm only staying in on the basis of hoping for a takeover.

[brucey09]

Snr. Roberts has been very as you say quite lately.

[notie]

Good post mate. Can't help but speculate if there was just one good accountant and no other staff at NZO, who accounted for the money received from Tui and Kupe and distributed the lot to shareholders what would the annual dividends be then ? (Any Australian analyst reading this, please feel free to try and crunch the numbers and pass this on to any company's CEO who's looking for cheap acquisitions).

DS and the expensive team hired to research all these opportunites they say they've been looking at havn't earned their keep by any stretch of the imagination and its time for heads to roll over the PRC fiasco and the management team to be slimmed down and more of the milk from the Tui and Kupe cash cows to flow where it rightfully belongs. (Lets remember that NZO management assured us they had run their own ruler over PRC operations are were more than happy with PRC's modus operendi)

Its a long. long way down from the $1.50 option excercise all the way down to 85 cents when global markets have generally recovered over that timeframe so for NZO shares to nearly halve in value, management and directors should be profoundly dissappointed with themselves. Quite obviously I'm far from a happy camper but for what its worth I'm only staying in on the basis of hoping for a takeover.

Good post Roger. nzo is looking very bad at the moment and I'd expect some of the institutional investors will be taking a good hard look at them. They raised a whole bunch of money off their shareholders then did nothing with it apart from investing a lot of money in pike.

Management and the board of this company have drawn some big pay packets and done bugger all about growing the company when they had a very good chance after the GFC. Heads should rightly roll, starting with the chairman who has also managed to get himself on the prc board. One has to question both his judgement and independence and he is the one who holds ultimate responsibility.

What now? Well the farm in they announced to their south taranaki permit by peak oil is probably off as that company cancelled its IPO. Also expect AWE to drop the Barque permit although nzo might be desperate enough to pick up more and go it alone on a well.

Expect some desperate moves by nzo which will probably include cutting staff levels from their million dollars/month.

I can't see any other near term opportunities that nzo might try to get into in NZ and there are unlikely to be any drilling in the next year.

[shasta]

Good post mate. Can't help but speculate if there was just one good accountant and no other staff at NZO, who accounted for the money received from Tui and Kupe and distributed the lot to shareholders what would the annual dividends be then ? (Any Australian analyst reading this, please feel free to try and crunch the numbers and pass this on to any company's CEO who's looking for cheap acquisitions).

DS and the expensive team hired to research all these opportunites they say they've been looking at havn't earned their keep by any stretch of the imagination and its time for heads to roll over the PRC fiasco and the management team to be slimmed down and more of the milk from the Tui and Kupe cash cows to flow where it rightfully belongs. (Lets remember that NZO management assured us they had run their own ruler over PRC operations are were more than happy with PRC's modus operendi)

Its a long. long way down from the $1.50 option excercise all the way down to 85 cents when global markets have generally recovered over that timeframe so for NZO shares to nearly halve in value, management and directors should be profoundly dissappointed with themselves. Quite obviously I'm far from a happy camper but for what its worth I'm only staying in on the basis of hoping for a takeover.

Add into it the FX losses, & if people go back in the thread i did "forecast" them in advance, so im not sure what there Accountants do there to earn there salaries, certainly seem a little light in that regard. NZO have never needed to hold the $US90m they had at the time, so to me it was a no brainer!

More cash down the drain! (Theres a pattern forming here)

[the machine]

lets hope nzo have a drill announced soon - like PEP 38483 to put some of the usd$ to good use.

PEP 38483 has passed drill decision date an d in the absence of no announcement then one hopes the finer detail still being fnalised.

M

[Chris Roberts]

Snr. Roberts has been very as you say quite lately.

Snr Roberts has actually been very busy lately helping his company deal with one of the most tragic events in this country's history. There are more important things to be done than worrying about the ill-informed speculation by a handful of people on this site. As always, if any genuine shareholder wants some actual facts, they can email me and I will reply to them directly.

[fabs]

Mr. ROBERTS
What it took a Tragedy like this to wake the board up to getting busy?
Even without this, the performance over the last 3 years is anything to write home about
Like the flippant comment by one of the directors at the AGM if one does not like what the co. is doing put your money into another one.
This co. had a brilliant future 4 years ago, no good to blame people for having some basic expectations from a well payed but arrogant management.
Why respond via e-mail to fair questions, bring it out into the public arena or has it stopped being a Public co?
btw. Even the fact that i have for some time now only half of the shares that i used to, take obviously still a geniune interest in the co.
Like to look forward to praise the co. again preferably soon.

[BigBob]

Snr Roberts has actually been very busy lately helping his company deal with one of the most tragic events in this country's history. There are more important things to be done than worrying about the ill-informed speculation by a handful of people on this site. As always, if any genuine shareholder wants some actual facts, they can email me and I will reply to them directly.

Snr Roberts,

I don't doubt that you have been very busy and anything you have had to do with regards to assisting our company dealing with the Pike River tragedy of course takes priority.

However, there have been a few regular NZO related questions posted here too, which I think we shareholders should be informed about.

For starters, maybe NZO could provide a statement about why the share buy back has apparently been suspended (or discontinued), and when it is expected to resume.

And maybe we could get an update on PEP 38483. After all we are now past the drill decision date.

Just the normal kind of thing we shareholders would like to know about.

Thank you in advance
Bigbob

[Balance]

Snr Roberts,

I don't doubt that you have been very busy and anything you have had to do with regards to assisting our company dealing with the Pike River tragedy of course takes priority.

However, there have been a few regular NZO related questions posted here too, which I think we shareholders should be informed about.

For starters, maybe NZO could provide a statement about why the share buy back has apparently been suspended (or discontinued), and when it is expected to resume.

And maybe we could get an update on PEP 38483. After all we are now past the drill decision date.

Just the normal kind of thing we shareholders would like to know about.

Thank you in advance
Bigbob

How dare you request any infor from NZO?

How dare you even expect NZO to keep you informed?

YOU are there to serve the company, not the other way round.

Consider yourself privileged to be allowed to be a shareholder.

[777]

Good reply Chris. It still won't shut them up though.

[Chris Roberts]

Snr Roberts,

I don't doubt that you have been very busy and anything you have had to do with regards to assisting our company dealing with the Pike River tragedy of course takes priority.

However, there have been a few regular NZO related questions posted here too, which I think we shareholders should be informed about.

For starters, maybe NZO could provide a statement about why the share buy back has apparently been suspended (or discontinued), and when it is expected to resume.

And maybe we could get an update on PEP 38483. After all we are now past the drill decision date.

Just the normal kind of thing we shareholders would like to know about.

Thank you in advance
Bigbob

We are, as far as I am aware, the only company that has attempted to engage with the posters on this site. But proper engagement with our shareholders does not take place here. Some of the posters are not even shareholders.
We openly and happily engage with our shareholders. Almost every day I get shareholder emails and all of those emails get answered.
You should go to our website and send through any questions. You can then post the answers here if you want, that's your right.

[Beagle]

How dare you request any infor from NZO?

How dare you even expect NZO to keep you informed?

YOU are there to serve the company, not the other way round.

Consider yourself privileged to be allowed to be a shareholder.


A classic piece of sarcasm, great post. The pathetic share price of 83 cents says it all. The market has spoken.

[BigBob]

We are, as far as I am aware, the only company that has attempted to engage with the posters on this site. But proper engagement with our shareholders does not take place here. Some of the posters are not even shareholders.
We openly and happily engage with our shareholders. Almost every day I get shareholder emails and all of those emails get answered.
You should go to our website and send through any questions. You can then post the answers here if you want, that's your right.

Fair enough that you don't want to reply to each and every rant here

However, at some level I suppose that the answer to either of these two questions could be considered material and would warrant a release via the stock market. But maybe not, we will only know in hindsight won't we?

If you did actually try and inform the market better, maybe it would re-establish some confidence in our company. Maybe it would show that the management does know what it is doing? Maybe the board would regain some credibility?

But then again, maybe not....!

[swissboy]

I actually agree, the the time taken by Chris to make the half-smart Snr Robert's reply, might have been better used to reduce the long suffering shareholders anguish of all the uncertainty, with the s/p way undervalued ??????????

[Balance]

I actually agree, the the time taken by Chris to make the half-smart Snr Robert's reply, might have been better used to reduce the long suffering shareholders anguish of all the uncertainty, with the s/p way undervalued ??????????

I think he meant Sir rather than Snr when he posted his comment.

[the machine]

I actually agree, the the time taken by Chris to make the half-smart Snr Robert's reply, might have been better used to reduce the long suffering shareholders anguish of all the uncertainty, with the s/p way undervalued ??????????

The proper method to ask NZO a question [apart from at AGM] is via their contact link on their website.

M

[Chippie]

You are a tough bunch to keep happy.

Do you really need a formal statement as to why NZO has stopped the buy back of its shares? And the current share price is this low because of what happened at Pike, what more explanation do you want?

It is not a great situation but all part of the risk of investing.

Personally I appreciate it that Chris does take the time to respond to the questions on this site. It is a "Damed if you do and damed if you don't" situation.

From memory it was a bunch of people on this site that thought the share buy back was a good idea.

Thanks Chris!

[BigBob]

You are a tough bunch to keep happy.

Do you really need a formal statement as to why NZO has stopped the buy back of its shares? And the current share price is this low because of what happened at Pike, what more explanation do you want?

It is not a great situation but all part of the risk of investing.

Personally I appreciate it that Chris does take the time to respond to the questions on this site. It is a "Damed if you do and damed if you don't" situation.

From memory it was a bunch of people on this site that thought the share buy back was a good idea.

Thanks Chris!

All right then, why don't you elucidate us Chippie...? Why has the buy back stopped?

For what it is worth, I still think a buy back is a good idea, especially at what I consider a very good price!!

[Balance]

All right then, why don't you elucidate us Chippie...? Why has the buy back stopped?

For what it is worth, I still think a buy back is a good idea, especially at what I consider a very good price!!

Chippie has gone very quiet.

[bull....]

From a market perspective nzo has been a disaster after topping out in late 2009 its been downhill ever since posting returns of - 50% last 12 mths ouch and currently testing multi yr support levels a break of which could see the price heading towards 60c.
If you like oil as an investment a futures or oil etf would have had you laughing all the way to the bank and then you dont have the risk of worry about company specific issues.

[Balance]

From a market perspective nzo has been a disaster after topping out in late 2009 its been downhill ever since posting returns of - 50% last 12 mths ouch and currently testing multi yr support levels a break of which could see the price heading towards 60c.
If you like oil as an investment a futures or oil etf would have had you laughing all the way to the bank and then you dont have the risk of worry about company specific issues.

Especially with a company like NZOG - well paid second rate directors and management pretending they know how to run an oil and gas (and yes, coal) company.

CEO was paid $559,000 last year. TR was paid $154,500. What have they achieved? PPP, dry holes and a blown-up coal mine.

Meanwhile, a lot of travelling around the globe looking for opportunities! First class, 5 star hotels, caviar and champagne, anyone?

[fabs]

But hey its Hard Work,
Best NZ v US $ rates, a run of top Oil production at all time High Prices, good demand & prices for Gas, hard work done and taken care of by other Co,s heaps of cash to wallow in..
At that rate if it has to become risky investing in shares then better emigrate to the Planet----- CHIPPIE++++Roberts ---hail from.

[Unicorn]

Especially with a company like NZOG - well paid second rate directors and management pretending they know how to run an oil and gas (and yes, coal) company.

CEO was paid $559,000 last year. TR was paid $154,500. What have they achieved? PPP, dry holes and a blown-up coal mine.

Meanwhile, a lot of travelling around the globe looking for opportunities! First class, 5 star hotels, caviar and champagne, anyone?

How many companies have you built up to the extent they made it into the NZX50?

[Beagle]

How many companies have you built up to the extent they made it into the NZX50?

Reminds me of the old saying, how do you make a small fortune in the Oil and gas Industry, start with a bigger one. NZO has extracted heaps from shareholders over the years and paid pitifully little back. Help me out here Chris, is it four or five dividends in total its near 30 year history ?

[Balance]

How many companies have you built up to the extent they made it into the NZX50?

You mean like Allan Hawkins built Equiticorp into a top 5 company?

Or like Mark Hotchin and Eric Watson built Hanover to have over $500m of depositors' money?

Or maybe, like (insert who you think) built PRC and caused the deaths of 29 miners?

Wrong argument, me ole Unicorn, to use.

[Beagle]

NZO hits six year low today of 82 cents. Just thought shareholders would like to know that the $12m so called "extra funding" NZO provided to PRC works out to 3.08 cents for every share you own of the 389m listed ordinary shares so in addittion to the severe hiding everyone of us shareholders took over the PRC fiasco the directors saw fit to "invest" another 3 cents per share of your value in the bottomless pit of PRC. Are these the sort of "brilliant" business decisions that justify their bloated salaries ?

[Unicorn]

You typify the sort of shareholders that NZOG (and by inference, PRC) likes - unquestioning and defensive.

That is a completely incorrect statement. It shows nothing more than that you comment on things you know nothing about.

I have in fact sent a number of messages to the company executives over recent years and had three face to face meetings with management. To suggest those meetings were unquestioning shows how far you are from understanding reality.

You have brought up a quote from some time ago. A lot has changed since then, so it is largely irrelevant. In my view there are some significant areas where the company has failed to deliver of late, and has failed to make the reasons for that lack of progress clear to its shareholders. That is not good, and something I will quite likely be taking up with the company in the near future.

The three matters that are largely behind the current price of NZO shares (the recession, the PRC explosion and the lack of success from the recent drilling programs) are not things I blame NZO management for. My view is that drilling programs are not guaranteed to succeed and that the Pike explosion was something from the worse case end of the risk list that in practical terms may not have been avoided without the use of hindsight. Once the cause of the Pike explosion is known, I may well change my mind on where blame should lie with that event - but it is extremely unlikely that NZO has any culpability.

You also failed to answer the simple question ... How many companies have you built up to the extent they made it into the NZX50?

[Balance]

You also failed to answer the simple question ... How many companies have you built up to the extent they made it into the NZX50?

Happy to repeat my answer :

You mean like Allan Hawkins built Equiticorp into a top 5 company?

Or like Mark Hotchin and Eric Watson built Hanover to have over $500m of depositors' money?

Or maybe, like (insert who you think) built PRC and caused the deaths of 29 miners?

Wrong argument, me ole Unicorn, to use.

[Unicorn]

Happy to repeat my answer :

You mean like Allan Hawkins built Equiticorp into a top 5 company?

Or like Mark Hotchin and Eric Watson built Hanover to have over $500m of depositors' money?

Or maybe, like (insert who you think) built PRC and caused the deaths of 29 miners?

Wrong argument, me ole Unicorn, to use.

I am sure that anyone can see that your response does not answer the simple question.

I will assume the answer is none.

[Balance]

I am sure that anyone can see that your response does not answer the simple question.

I will assume the answer is none.

The answer, me ole' Unicorn, is that you have an undying belief that anyone who builds an NZX50 company automatically must be accorded the highest level of respect and admiration in your books.

I choose to disagree with your assertion and ask you to consider the question of PRC and the 29 dead miners. $290m and a top 50 NZX company built by a bunch of amateurs, wow! Was it worth it?

[Unicorn]

The answer, me ole' Unicorn, is that you have an undying belief that anyone who builds an NZX50 company automatically must be accorded the highest level of respect and admiration in your books.

You are once again completely wrong.

[Beagle]

If you would allow me to interject for a second, the NZO price this time last year was over $1.75 and is now 82 cents, less than half. The share price has fallen since the PRC event to a significantly further extent than is warranted by the complete write-off of the funds invested in and loan advances made to PRC, assumming those amounts are completly written off, which looks like a pretty safe assumption to me. This drop is against a background of high oil prices and a lower exchange rate against the American dollar so NZO should be "caning it" in terms of revenues from Tui and Kupe.

NZO hit a six year low today and I believe the market has spoken that it is not at all impressed with NZO and its track record in recent times. I also believe the market is most unimpressed from a commercial perspective about the handling of the extra funding matter previoiusly eluded too at some length.

I'm with Balance on this one and think Unicorn, your question is completly invalid.

[Unicorn]

If you would allow me to interject for a second, the NZO price this time last year was over $1.75 and is now 82 cents, less than half. The share price has fallen since the PRC event to a significantly further extent than is warranted by the complete write-off of the funds invested in and loan advances made to PRC, assumming those amounts are completly written off, which looks life a pretty safe assumption to me. This drop is against a background of high oil prices and a lower exchange rate against the American dollar so NZO should be "caning it" in terms of revenues from Tui and Kupe.

NZO hit a six year low today and I believe the market has spoken that it is not at all impressed with NZO and its track record in recent times. I also believe the market is most unimpressed from a commercial perspective about the handling of the extra funding matter previoiusly eluded too at some length.

I'm with Balance on this one and think Unicorn, your question is completly invalid.

The market is driven by supply and demand. After the PRC failure, supply is up and demand is down. It will take a while for that to stabilise.

Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money. That is the way the market works.

[Balance]

The market is driven by supply and demand. After the PRC failure, supply is up and demand is down. It will take a while for that to stabilise.

Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money. That is the way the market works.

Nope - NZO made some very bad mistakes. That's why investors lose money.

[shasta]

Nope - NZO made some very bad mistakes. That's why investors lose money.

NZO's induction into the main index was on the basis of the options money raised @ $1.50 per share

Roger makes a valid point, despite all that cash raised, what has happened since, the share price is what it is!

NZO has paid out a few 5c dividends
No further exploration success, & little exploration acquistion activity during the GFC (which provided plenty of opportunities for cashed up companies)
PPP investment, which hasn't worked out & is showing a paper loss
PRC investment (ok there are many factors out of there control, but not a good use of shareholder funds & to keep propping it up!)
Poor treasury/cash management with regards to FX, (to do NOTHING is speculating!)

These are all matters that the NZO Mgmt/Board had/should of had, control over!

[Xerof]

Poor treasury/cash management with regards to FX, (to do NOTHING is speculating!)



I remember the FX debate well Shasta

I recall offering to do it for them for a lousy 200k pa, and I heard nothing:ohmy::ohmy:

I sold all my NZO and PRC in silent protest :cool::cool: high 1.60's and mid 1.20's

You guys who are bleating on at management now should vote with your feet too - in my experience it pays......

[Bilo]

The market is driven by supply and demand. After the PRC failure, supply is up and demand is down. It will take a while for that to stabilise.

Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money. That is the way the market works.

Overly simplistic Uni. How about all those who short the bejeezers out of NZO to reduce their losses and make everyone elses worse, while David (Nero) Salisbury fiddles. They opened the coy SP to trading with the promise of a significant buyback and then pulled the rug from under most of their shareholders. The Board and Salisbury are on their way out unless they suddenly reveal a master stroke. If true to form they look after themselves, expec a sale or merger. At the current rate they won't survive as an independent company beyond 2010.

They will join the cream of NZ listed coy directors who have ridden their coys out of the top ten, out of the top 50, to some where else....

[fish]

The market is driven by supply and demand. After the PRC failure, supply is up and demand is down. It will take a while for that to stabilise.

Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money. That is the way the market works.

Wise words as always Unicorn .
Your postings over the years and in particular the brilliant valuation of TTP,and leading of a group of us into successful adjudication over ttp(and demolishing them later in court and the appeals court ) are testament to the brilliance of your postings .
There are some on this site that for various reasons will try and rubbish your honesty and analytical ability-and the recent tragedy will lend fuel to this .
I always value your insightful comments and wonder if you could post a valuation of nzo -it seems to me that current cash plus value of kupe and tui alone is way above the current sp.

[digger]

Wise words as always Unicorn .
Your postings over the years and in particular the brilliant valuation of TTP,and leading of a group of us into successful adjudication over ttp(and demolishing them later in court and the appeals court ) are testament to the brilliance of your postings .
There are some on this site that for various reasons will try and rubbish your honesty and analytical ability-and the recent tragedy will lend fuel to this .
I always value your insightful comments and wonder if you could post a valuation of nzo -it seems to me that current cash plus value of kupe and tui alone is way above the current sp.


Interesting Fish.I would have thought that Kupe covers the SP and the cash and TUI come as an extra free gift.
To my mind the SP is so low as the market somewhat rightly is worried about the lialibilities that NZO might feel it has to pick up. See many contractors and other feel gutted by what has happened.It is past time that the NZO shareholders made it aware they are also gutted by what has happened and it is clearly now for management to make it clear that future responsbilities are solely to the NZO shareholders.
Regardless of any valuation Unicorn or anyone else puts together the market will downgrade until this supposted lialibility is cleared up. We are all gutted. The only ones not gutted are some anti NZO posters and laywers.

[Unicorn]

Wise words as always Unicorn .
Your postings over the years and in particular the brilliant valuation of TTP,and leading of a group of us into successful adjudication over ttp(and demolishing them later in court and the appeals court ) are testament to the brilliance of your postings .
There are some on this site that for various reasons will try and rubbish your honesty and analytical ability-and the recent tragedy will lend fuel to this .
I always value your insightful comments and wonder if you could post a valuation of nzo -it seems to me that current cash plus value of kupe and tui alone is way above the current sp.

Hi Fish

Posting here is just feeding the trolls. I tested the water yesterday and found some completely silly statements are being posted.

I have better things to do than to contribute to a forum where people are making nonsensical statements for their own strange purposes.

[skid]

starting to sound like talkback radio-hats off to those few posters with actual facts and reseach to share..

[Balance]

All right then, why don't you elucidate us Chippie...? Why has the buy back stopped?

For what it is worth, I still think a buy back is a good idea, especially at what I consider a very good price!!

Chippie has gone super quiet?

[Beagle]

The market is driven by supply and demand. After the PRC failure, supply is up and demand is down. It will take a while for that to stabilise.

Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money. That is the way the market works.

With respect, you can take it as read that most of us on here are well aware of market supply and demand dynamics and there effect on the SP. My contention is quite plain, the Directors and managment have made a complete mess of managing the PRC event, they've forgotten who they act for and for that matter they've consistently demonstated a total inability to make any meaningful use of their abundent cash flow from Tui other than of course to make sure there's plenty of food to get their snouts into in their trough.

Valuing property companies is easy work, NZO too tough for you ?..not that I care there's a number of valuations doing the rounds excluding PRC but until the directors can demonstrate they remember who they act for the market will continue to take its own dim view.

[Beagle]

Interesting Fish.I would have thought that Kupe covers the SP and the cash and TUI come as an extra free gift.
To my mind the SP is so low as the market somewhat rightly is worried about the lialibilities that NZO might feel it has to pick up. See many contractors and other feel gutted by what has happened.It is past time that the NZO shareholders made it aware they are also gutted by what has happened and it is clearly now for management to make it clear that future responsbilities are solely to the NZO shareholders.
Regardless of any valuation Unicorn or anyone else puts together the market will downgrade until this supposted lialibility is cleared up. We are all gutted. The only ones not gutted are some anti NZO posters and laywers.

Well said.

[Balance]

With respect, you can take it as read that most of us on here are well aware of market supply and demand dynamics and there effect on the SP. My contention is quite plain, the Directors and managment have made a complete mess of managing the PRC event, they've forgotten who they act for and for that matter they've consistently demonstated a total inability to make any meaningful use of their abundent cash flow from Tui other than of course to make sure there's plenty of food to get their snouts into in their trough.

Valuing property companies is easy work, NZO too tough for you ?..not that I care there's a number of valuations doing the rounds excluding PRC but until the directors can demonstrate they remember who they act for the market will continue to take its own dim view.

Not what the NZOers and Pikers want to read but that's the cold hard truth. And NZO directors and management are not going to change their ways - not with the sort of fawning shareholders who hang onto to words uttered by the directors and management.

I remember well one PIker posting this wonderful piece after meeting management last year : "I have been assured that there will be no more capital raising."

[Chippie]

Chippie has gone super quiet?

What is the point; obviously there are people with so much superior knowledge to me on Sharetrader.

To be honest unlike you Balance (who must be very rich due to your superior knowledge and trading expertise) I have a day job to cover the bills so I only check in here from time to time.

Unicorn covered this for me when he said “Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money” and “it will take a while to stabilise”. There is no point in buying back shares when the market is like this. To be honest I personally do not think there is any point to buying back shares at any time.

I have a paper loss of >$100K on NZO since the Pike explosion. I have as much reason to get on the case of NZO management but choose not to. There is no problem if people have different opinions, but if you do not like a company then just make sure you do not hold any shares.

Not much to add to this really.

[Beagle]

I was one of the main supporters calling for the buy-back. The logic behind buyback's is well established world-wide. Seeing as its clear NZO can't find another target to acquire and they think there own shares are the best buy on the market, why not buy them back ? Surely this makes common sense so as to be earnings acretive to remaining shareholders on an earnings per share basis. I would have thought a time like this would be the perfect opportunity for the company to continue with the buyback, but clearly the Directors know better but don't seem to want to bother updating the market why. Yet another example of "great" shareholder communication ?

[pietrade]

And to fill in the time between making pronouncements, why not have a look at the series that this one is just
a sample of-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeBtdwPpTQM&feature=channel

[fish]

nice to see tapis at over $96 us and a better exchange rate .
Diggers prediction of $100 by the years end is close to being fulfilled.
I e-mailed Chris Roberts a few days ago-they did stop the buy back with the explosion-didnt want to be accused of insider trading amongst other things . They are reconsidering starting anyday .

[Balance]

What is the point; obviously there are people with so much superior knowledge to me on Sharetrader.

To be honest unlike you Balance (who must be very rich due to your superior knowledge and trading expertise) I have a day job to cover the bills so I only check in here from time to time.

Unicorn covered this for me when he said “Meanwhile some people will panic and lose money, others will be more rational and will make money” and “it will take a while to stabilise”. There is no point in buying back shares when the market is like this. To be honest I personally do not think there is any point to buying back shares at any time.

I have a paper loss of >$100K on NZO since the Pike explosion. I have as much reason to get on the case of NZO management but choose not to. There is no problem if people have different opinions, but if you do not like a company then just make sure you do not hold any shares.

Not much to add to this really.

A question was asked of you when you professed to know why NZO stopped the share buyback. You chose to make the assertion and then, cannot answer.

Also, if a person does not like a company but thinks it has good assets and good potential which are being run down by bad/poor management, that person has every right to criticize and bring it to the notice of all shareholders, investors and the market. That's how things improve and progress can be made.

Are you suggesting otherwise?

[digger]

A question was asked of you when you professed to know why NZO stopped the share buyback. You chose to make the assertion and then, cannot answer.

Boy if there ever was an example of the kettle calling the pot black this is one.Balance you are the champion at making statements and then never following up with an answer when other posters ask for one. You simply ignor and go on and cover it up with more assertions.As you know your policy works as other poster get tired of asking for your proof.

[Balance]

Boy if there ever was an example of the kettle calling the pot black this is one.Balance you are the champion at making statements and then never following up with an answer when other posters ask for one. You simply ignor and go on and cover it up with more assertions.As you know your policy works as other poster get tired of asking for your proof.

Sorry, Digger but I do not listen to NZO or PRC management assertions and then, pass it onto other posters and shareholders as gospel truth as some NZOers and Pikers do.

I question and then, let the penny drop for those who have ears and care to listen, eyes and those who choose to see.

[digger]

nice to see tapis at over $96 us and a better exchange rate .
Diggers prediction of $100 by the years end is close to being fulfilled.
I e-mailed Chris Roberts a few days ago-they did stop the buy back with the explosion-didnt want to be accused of insider trading amongst other things . They are reconsidering starting anyday .

Hi Fish,
My $100 for Tapis for for 32 december is good enough to now call it a success. Shame i waisted time on the oil price at year end,should have been more interested in the fait of PIKE at year end.
The liability that NZO feels it has to pick up worries me and the market as well it seems.See subcontractors are suggesting that NZO should consider putting them higher up the receiver list than what they are legally entitled.Sad for them i say as they wanted to be contractors and not workers as it would mean more money if all went well. The fact that the mine blow up is only negative to them as in the good times they chose to not insure themselves for such an event.The risk should stand now in its legal arrangement and let each group sort themselves out. Maybe some subcontractors will themselves go bankrupt and if they do that must not be NZO responsbility to pick up.

[Balance]

nice to see tapis at over $96 us and a better exchange rate .
Diggers prediction of $100 by the years end is close to being fulfilled.
I e-mailed Chris Roberts a few days ago-they did stop the buy back with the explosion-didnt want to be accused of insider trading amongst other things . They are reconsidering starting anyday .

Good on NZO for being such a good corporate citizen.

They are probably going to need to hold cash now though for the eventualities ahead.

[Beagle]

Good on NZO for being such a good corporate citizen.

.

I'd rather they took more of an interest in looking after their owners. Regarding your comment on the Investigate article on PRC thread and not looking good for directors and management of Pike, lets remember who's the Chairman of NZO and the fact that NZO stated they had run their own ruler over PRC and were more than happy with the operation.

A classic case of guilt, lets throw around shareholders $12m "funding" because its the right thing to do to show we really do care. Might have been better to run a really thorough operational review of PRC's safety systems in the first place, stitch in time saves nine ? Seeing as other companies manage the Tui and Kupe developments I would have thought all those staff could have at least run a really thorough and comprehensive operational review of PRC's systems wouldn't you ?

[fish]

Hi Digger,

Tapis now at $98 so not quite there yet .
Pike River is still spooking investors and putting the sp down . NZO are highly unlikely to give more to Pike and hopefully will get their loan back in the course of time .With technological advances I wonder if underground mining for coal oneday could become remote-just as the drones are flown over afghanistan etc . Might be a good idea if nzo kept some kind of interest in the mine .

[Casa del Energia]

Hi Fish

Posting here is just feeding the trolls. I tested the water yesterday and found some completely silly statements are being posted.

I have better things to do than to contribute to a forum where people are making nonsensical statements for their own strange purposes.

I'd be interested to hear a valuation. And others opinions on (e.g.) NTA sans pike. Toss this troll a crumb.

[Balance]

I'd be interested to hear a valuation. And others opinions on (e.g.) NTA sans pike. Toss this troll a crumb.

Fascinating that those who are perennially following the words and wisdom of the directors and management of NZO and PRC get so defensive when asked to produce the 'goods'. Alas, no more goods to be produced by PRC - not even spin or PR bs anymore.

Market will discount NZO now to buggery - how can you trust management when they have squandered so much of the cash generated from Tui and the options exercise on misadventures like PRC. PPP and dry holes? GFC presented one of the great opportunities to buy oil and gas assets cheap - NZO bought a lemon! Tui is past its peak.

So what will management do next? Maybe invest in Fiji?

[notie]

you really do have to question the judgement of this company's management and directors. They had a big pot of money but blew it and have got very little to show for it.

Expect them to relinquish holdings like Barque which the joint venture applied for a 6 month drilling extension for in July 2010 and Kaupokonui which requires a drilling commitment by Jan 2011.

They really need some good news or their share price is going to fall, potentially dropping out of the NZX 15 and then institutional investors will sell out forcing the price down even further. In all likelihood nzo would blow more money buying back the shares to keep the price up, but that isn't going to save them.

Are they going to fade away or go out in a blaze of glory?

[Beagle]

Fascinating that those who are perennially following the words and wisdom of the directors and management of NZO and PRC get so defensive when asked to produce the 'goods'. Alas, no more goods to be produced by PRC - not even spin or PR bs anymore.

Market will discount NZO now to buggery - how can you trust management when they have squandered so much of the cash generated from Tui and the options exercise on misadventures like PRC. PPP and dry holes? GFC presented one of the great opportunities to buy oil and gas assets cheap - NZO bought a lemon! Tui is past its peak.

So what will management do next? Maybe invest in Fiji?

That's better balance.

I've run my numbers on NZO. Taken the average valuation from Brokers valuations inclusive of pike, see NZO's website, and that works out about $1.60, less 40 cents per share for completly writing off PRC and all loans and gifts to same = $1.20 per share, then I've discounted this by an appropriate multiple (50%), for NZO Directors and managements world class expertise" and fair value with existing directors and management is 60 cents in my opinion. I can't wait to get out. Hoping some new gullible stary eye'd punter will pay me 85 cents today.

P.S. I see they've started the buy-back again, pay me 85 cents and you can have the lot.

[777]

If you are that disenchanted then why not sell at market?

[Balance]

If you are that disenchanted then why not sell at market?

Roger is waiting for the diehard NZOers who trust the directors and management (as they have posted so persistently in the past) to show their faith and buy the shares above current prices.

Fair enough.

[winner69]

If you are that disenchanted then why not sell at market?

Prob wants the companies cash .... not just anybodies money

When you think of it that way rathehr odd some who fronted up with $1.50 of real money to put in the NZO coffers now only get 80 cents back if they decide to sell then back to the company

[Kees]

Prob wants the companies cash .... not just anybodies money

When you think of it that way rathehr odd some who fronted up with $1.50 of real money to put in the NZO coffers now only get 80 cents back if they decide to sell then back to the company

Nothing odd about it, great business plan that's the way the company makes money not a bad scheme really.

[Beagle]

Nothing odd about it, great business plan that's the way the company makes money not a bad scheme really.

I spotted the spelling mistake, you mean "scam"

777 - I'm just trying to mitigate my losses a bit but I'm not confident there's many stary eye'd true believers out there so will probably do what you're suggesting later today.

[jwang]

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Any traders know about this. I'm buying NZO as my calculation shows its value should be at least $1.00. Please see followings.

Equity at 30/06/10


446,839,000

Total CB to PRC at 23/11/10


38,596,711

Total Short-term Facility at 26/11/10


25,000,000

Total Cost of Equity to PRC


82,000,000

Equity excluding Loan & Investment in PRC


301,242,289

No. of Fully paid shares issued


389,093,000

Net Assets per share at 30/06/10


1.148

Net Assets per share excluding PRC interest


0.77

Average PB in the past 9 years


1.29

Valuation excluding PRC interest


1.00

PRC is claiming $100m insurance
Supporse NZO get 10% debt recovery, then


307,601,961

Then Net Assets per share


0.79

Then Valuation


1.02

Supporse NZO get 30% debt recovery, then


320,321,303

Then Net Assets per share


0.82

Then Valuation


1.06

Supporse NZO get 50% debt recovery, then


333,040,645

Then Net Assets per share


0.86

Then Valuation


1.10

[neopoleII]

valuations dont mean squat when shareholders havent got the capital to support the sp.
even the company cant support the sp.
the sp is controlled by speculators and traders, they pump cash in and out extracting a couple of percent here and there.
good news and bad news is the currency that these folks look for and nzo has delivered.
buybacks are are waste of money, much better to give divis to support the shareholder rather than play into the hands of traders.

[Beagle]

jwang,

Your NTA is 77 cents. Using average price to book over the last 9 years is completly meaningless, hello we're still in this GFC and we have the "world class expertise" for the past few years of D.S. who has a demonstrated history of what, that's right, losing lots of money. Tui and Kupe were NZO assets long before he came on board and there's been abundent cash flow from Tui and what have they done with it, oh that's right hire a team of analysts to look at all the investment opportunities thrown up by the GFC and what have all these experts done, that's right nothing buck suck up big salary packages and hand out a large "donation" to PRC because they wanted to look good and be P.C.. I'm out of this DOG today and won't be back. Balance, myself and others are absolutly right, no matter what theoretical valuation a skilled analyst puts on this company it will trade at a very deep discount until such time as management and directors prove they can add value, if ever.

Otherwise, welcome to the Sharetrader blogs. You were very brave to try and value this company and although you've got it wrong in my opinion I take my hat off to you for having the courage to have a go when some far more experienced bloggers seem to have wimped out despite being asked.

[jwang]

That's the way I do: when others quit, I'm in. I can proudly say I've been doing well in the last a couple of years so will stick with the strategy. NZO becomes so cheap and itself may attract sb. to make acquisition. The company has great assets on hand and once be acquired, new management should make it much better.

[winner69]

Hey Roger ..... how do you think they would run a brewery then?

[Penfold]

Jwang you won't get a great reception round here talking fundamentals.

That said I did a quick valuation a few weeks ago and came up with 95cps. I bought a few today @83 to hold long-term. Maybe because I wasn't holding a few weeks ago I am positive about their future. That said, the management have clearly made poor decisions. Lets hope they just stick to their knitting in future and pump oil worth more each day as the NZD falls and oil rises.

[J R Ewing]

While I have a great deal of sympathy for some of the sentiments being expressed here, I think they support my view that NZO is currently oversold.

[digger]

That's the way I do: when others quit, I'm in. I can proudly say I've been doing well in the last a couple of years so will stick with the strategy. NZO becomes so cheap and itself may attract sb. to make acquisition. The company has great assets on hand and once be acquired, new management should make it much better.

Welcome jwang to the sharetrading slanging match.Your of coa-rse right about the rough valuations but for most just now they count for nothing.You will almost certainly turn out to be right by entering now that others are leaving.Look at the volumn.More than 1% traded today and nearly that amount again in the last few days.While many are getting out who is the big pocket buying up the dishearted.Maybe it is Balance and Notie [could be the same person] as they are good down rampers and well informed in the oil and gas sector.
Nog is indeed heavily marked down and this tragedy is exactally what traders and someone building a stage like.If my guess is correct we should hear soon as at the rate of turnover 5% will soon need to be revealed.It would be interesting to know who is selling .Is it only small holders or some with millions? Balance and Notie will be buying as no one spends that much time on a share unless they have a secert interest in its outcome.
Goodby Roger. Warren Buffett wrote a couple of chapters about you.He wrote a couple about me to which i need to reread.For me it is all about selling when others are all buying.For you it is clearly to not sell when everyong else is in a panic.
Anyways that large recent volumn is very telling and the very small 20000 bought by NZO is of no importance.
Who is buying????

[Balance]

Welcome jwang to the sharetrading slanging match.Your of coa-rse right about the rough valuations but for most just now they count for nothing.You will almost certainly turn out to be right by entering now that others are leaving.Look at the volumn.More than 1% traded today and nearly that amount again in the last few days.While many are getting out who is the big pocket buying up the dishearted.Maybe it is Balance and Notie [could be the same person] as they are good down rampers and well informed in the oil and gas sector.
Nog is indeed heavily marked down and this tragedy is exactally what traders and someone building a stage like.If my guess is correct we should hear soon as at the rate of turnover 5% will soon need to be revealed.It would be interesting to know who is selling .Is it only small holders or some with millions? Balance and Notie will be buying as no one spends that much time on a share unless they have a secert interest in its outcome.
Goodby Roger. Warren Buffett wrote a couple of chapters about you.He wrote a couple about me to which i need to reread.For me it is all about selling when others are all buying.For you it is clearly to not sell when everyong else is in a panic.
Anyways that large recent volumn is very telling and the very small 20000 bought by NZO is of no importance.
Who is buying????

Who is buying? Same people who were buying PRC like it was the best coal mine in Australasia.

And Digger, unlike you NZOers, Roger and I have been bang on with our assessments of NZO ands PRC - lousy management and equally lousy shareholders. Just read back through the thread.

First rule of investment - if management is no good, stay clear. No need to down ramp - management are downing the sp well by turning $1.50 to 82c!

[skid]

spot on Digger-Balance,I and many others ,Im sure ,would like to know your motivations regarding NZO-It would help me understand your post a bit better. Are you a frustrated holder like Roger..was..or are you looking to buy in?? or sitting on the sidelines with the goal of simply enlightning us with your knowledge?

[Awamoa]

So far Balance has made 2080 posts.They are pretty much spread between SCF,Pike and NOG.They virtually say the same thing over and over and over and over.Its actually quite boring.
Maybe next year he might start telling us which Companies he is actually invested in and why.
So far I get the impression he wont own a house because it might burn down,wont own a car because someone might drive into him and doesnt go on holidays because the plane might fall out of the sky.
Balance we understand your thoughts on thses Companies now so maybe just leave them alone.

[777]

Well posted Awamoa. Add GPG to the list of companies whinges about. His statement "Roger and I have been bang on with our assessments of NZO ands PRC - lousy management and equally lousy shareholders" is interesting in itself. All he is doing is rubbishing everyone who does not agree with him and then has the gaul to say he is "bang on" with that assessment. Boring is an understatement.

[Balance]

LOL - keep listening then to the 'Management know what they are doing' NZOers and 'PRC told me no more capital raising' Pikers.

I like following NZO and PRC - they represent an outstanding way of studying investors' and human behavior.

This is an open forum and you are free to ignore or read.

Those who have eyes and chose to read have saved themselves money.

Have a look at XRO and DIL - up 60% and 148% this year. Very high risk they are too!

NZO? Down 48% but the worse part is how the management has squandered the cash pouring out of Tui. And Tui is diminishing day by day.

NZOers need to take directors and management to task and let's hope 2011 will be a good year for you then.

[winner69]

spot on Digger-Balance,I and many others ,Im sure ,would like to know your motivations regarding NZO-It would help me understand your post a bit better. Are you a frustrated holder like Roger..was..or are you looking to buy in?? or sitting on the sidelines with the goal of simply enlightning us with your knowledge?

You guys seem to forget Balance has been ;promoting; XRO abd DIL and a couple of others this year .....

[peterfindlay]

In the context of the valuation debate being conducted on this site, the most recent Macquarie research in my possession my be beneficial:

Stock: NZO NZ

Name: New Zealand Oil and Gas

Event



Pike River Coal (PRC NZ, suspended from trade, Neutral, $1.38 target price), 29.4% owned by NZO, has been placed into receivership today. Receivership was considered the best mechanism to manage the business' immediate future.


Impact


Negative news flow, but not unexpected: Today's announcement is a logical step for a company with significant debts and no source of income. It will enable the realisation of assets for preferential claims (staff) and secured creditors of the company (BNZ and NZO).


Time and inquiries will undermine value of core asset: The largest asset of PRC is its hard coking coal reserves; however, with the search and recovery operation still underway and a number of inquiries to be completed, we consider it unlikely that receivers would be able to realise value from this for some time.


Little value for PRC in current NZO share price: PRC accounted for 43cps of our NZO target price of $1.63. Today's announcement confirms that there should be no value ascribed to the PRC investment, at least in the short to medium term. While there are some valuable items of plant external to the mine itself (coal processing plant, electricity substation and continuous miner), we expect any cash raised will be required to maintain the remaining staff, provide information to inquiries and develop future plans (if able).

Action and recommendation


We will retain our Neutral recommendation on NZO. We note that ex the PRC assets, our core NAV for NZO is $1.20.

[jwang]

Jwang you won't get a great reception round here talking fundamentals.

That said I did a quick valuation a few weeks ago and came up with 95cps. I bought a few today @83 to hold long-term. Maybe because I wasn't holding a few weeks ago I am positive about their future. That said, the management have clearly made poor decisions. Lets hope they just stick to their knitting in future and pump oil worth more each day as the NZD falls and oil rises.

I know. I'm pretty confident on my valuation, and just come here to see how traders are doing. looks they are all getting out, and this is further confirmation that value investors should get in. The rule of share market is sb's loss must be others gain. Hopefully I'm lucky that others.

I agree NZO's management is not good, but actually it's a company which don't need outstanding management. Its earnings are highly related to oil price, which is not under management control. When I go to BP today, I feel pain as petrol price hike again, but I'm delighted NZO will make money and now I'm the owner of the company. Though Tui output is coming down, Kupe has just started and will have full year production for 2010-11 year. Kupe has much larger reserve in terms of "million barrels of oil equivalent".

There is no quick bucks to make, I'll patiently hold NZO for next a couple of years and let's see the result.

[Beagle]

I've joined you Roger. I'm out today as well with enough hard earned left to stay drunk throughout the holiday period and forget this bad memory. :mellow:

It seems crazy to me that NZO management can throw millions at a good-will offering to PRC, donate 1/2 mil to a relief fund and yet only toss shareholders (company owners) a lousy 5c dividend each of the last two years. I myself have opted for each of those years to use the DRP, so I guess that makes my dividend only about 3c per share for my loyalty.

Maybe if I ask nicely NZO will buy my PRC shares from me, as it seems as though they have a soft spot for the company. :rolleyes:

Good riddance NZO. You wont ever see my name turn up on your share register again!

My sympathy too you Yankiwi you have definitly done the right thing - fortunatly I saw the light and got out of PRC a couple of months ago so managed to avoid the double edged buring many others such as yourself have been served up.

Must admitt I had a few coldies myself yesterday, drowning my sorrows. There are far better places to invest your money that this mongrel. When I've executed my new stratagy and acquired the shares I'll be more than happy to share and explain why its a real winner.

Winner69 - Not sure if you're quip is a reference to the old cliche "they couldn't organise a p#ss up in a brewery" if so that's spot on.

[Beagle]

In the context of the valuation debate being conducted on this site, the most recent Macquarie research in my possession my be beneficial:

Stock: NZO NZ

Name: New Zealand Oil and Gas

Event



Pike River Coal (PRC NZ, suspended from trade, Neutral, $1.38 target price), 29.4% owned by NZO, has been placed into receivership today. Receivership was considered the best mechanism to manage the business' immediate future.


Impact


Negative news flow, but not unexpected: Today's announcement is a logical step for a company with significant debts and no source of income. It will enable the realisation of assets for preferential claims (staff) and secured creditors of the company (BNZ and NZO).


Time and inquiries will undermine value of core asset: The largest asset of PRC is its hard coking coal reserves; however, with the search and recovery operation still underway and a number of inquiries to be completed, we consider it unlikely that receivers would be able to realise value from this for some time.


Little value for PRC in current NZO share price: PRC accounted for 43cps of our NZO target price of $1.63. Today's announcement confirms that there should be no value ascribed to the PRC investment, at least in the short to medium term. While there are some valuable items of plant external to the mine itself (coal processing plant, electricity substation and continuous miner), we expect any cash raised will be required to maintain the remaining staff, provide information to inquiries and develop future plans (if able).

Action and recommendation


We will retain our Neutral recommendation on NZO. We note that ex the PRC assets, our core NAV for NZO is $1.20.


Yeah, that's exactly where I got to with my valuation the other day but then I had the foresight to discount the assets by 50% due to the current management and Directors = 60 cents while they're in charge.

[dsurf]

Balance & Roger - How much money did you make shorting PRC & NZO? I am sure you must have because you haved called the SP perfectly and I think with the leverage must be up 1000's of %. If you read back in this thread I think most holders got in on the back of the "oil / commodity" price spike from China & increasing cost of reserves. This theme is very strong as the oil price is approaching $100 and yet USA etc have huge reserves based on historic levels,. Fortunately NZO management have nothing to do with TUI or Kupe and this is where the value is. Sentiment is terrible at the moment & so it should be. That will change quickly when the "financial?" press start commenting on impending oil price spike etc. You are correct about management of NZO but we have all heard it before. Please address your commentaries to possible future scenarios or at least the present and try to make them original. You are right!!! Okay happy? But back to the original question - how much money did you make being right?

[dsurf]

At 60c I would expect a takeover to be imminent. I also suspect the buyer to be the NZ Super fund and / or ACC. I suspect they will not go over 5% as have also been burnt & the buying is about reducing the average price of entry.

[BigBob]

Yeah, that's exactly where I got to with my valuation the other day but then I had the foresight to discount the assets by 50% due to the current management and Directors = 60 cents while they're in charge.

I think you're are letting your anger and frustration get the better of you. Discounting the assets by 50% due to your perception of bad management seems a bit excessive.

Shouldn't you at least wait and see what they are actually going to do now?

This whole situation reminds me of the ol' Buffett saying that "the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"..... :o)

[Balance]

I think you're are letting your anger and frustration get the better of you. Discounting the assets by 50% due to your perception of bad management seems a bit excessive.

Shouldn't you at least wait and see what they are actually going to do now?

This whole situation reminds me of the ol' Buffett saying that "the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"..... :o)

It has been a case with NZO and PRC that the transfer of wealth has been from the impatient to the patient.

PRC is gone (pretty much), PPP and dry holes are not showing promise for the future, Tui is running down - so Kupe is what you have.

Plus, of course, the directors and management much admired by the diehard NZOers of the world.

Are they going to deliver?

Not on recent history.

[Beagle]

At 60c I would expect a takeover to be imminent. I also suspect the buyer to be the NZ Super fund and / or ACC. I suspect they will not go over 5% as have also been burnt & the buying is about reducing the average price of entry.

50% is a measure of the frustration I feel with managmentand is intended as somewhat tongue in cheek.
The market obviously sees it differently but quite rightly is still applying a large discount to theoretical sssets because of NZO's woeful record. Without a drilling programme this summer and with existing management and with Pike almost certain to be sealed off where can the price go ? What possible catalyst for the price to go higher ? It will languish around current levels or drift lower in my opinion and then the Directors will approve another 5 cent divvy late next year and think you should be so grateful....

For the record I don't short stocks, I was one of the major supporters and encouragers of NZO instigating a share buy-back programme and did okay in the stock until the Pike disaster, fortunatly I sold 80% of my holding in NZO into the buy-back before Pike's disaster and all my Pike, so yeah seeing as you asked, I've done well calling the situation as I see it and acting on it, relative to how other investors have probably done. Overall I'm probably a little bit ahead of cost, not much mind you but its all relative to how other investors have sufferred in these two terrible investments so I count myself as extremly fortunate to have been able to differentiate the truth from the B.S. and maybe got a little lucky with my exit timing.

Do yourself a huge favour and sell this very poorly managed company for an extremly well managed growth company. Ryman.
P.E is only 11 growing at 25% P.E.G. ratio is only 0.44 !!!!, exceptionally well managed, great company to deal with providing a wonderful service to the Elderly, six times Retirement Village of the Year winner, management have a large stake in the company, one of the few if only genuine growth stocks in New Zealand that's trading on extremly undemanding fundamentals and excellent demographics with a huge boom in retiree's forecast in the forseeable future. Expansion plans to Australia as well. Its a winner and will grow. That's where I put my NZO money and am extremly confident that's a vastly better place for it.

[Balance]

Well said, Roger.

[dsurf]

IF NZO had no revenue then the price can only go lower. With revenue based on the price of oil then if the oil price goes higher and NZO's revenue is based on oil then it should go higher. I agree with your comments regarding management entirely. Fortunately NZO management have zero influence on the existing revenue streams and yes I expect 50% wastage of profits, but the point is if oil goes back to $1.40 say then NZO's revenue will also increase. I expect bad sentiment to continue whilst PRC remains in the news but am of the opinion that going forward the negativity will be offset by positive factors (agreed they have nothing to do with NZO management) like rising sharemarkets, commodity prices, and an improving buy / sell picture (has capitulation already happened?).

[dsurf]

Balance - There are no sides only possibilities of what may be upcoming. Stop living off past predictions. If you agree with roger that the price can only go lower then open a cfd account and short NZO.

[Balance]

Balance - There are no sides only possibilities of what may be upcoming. Stop living off past predictions. If you agree with roger that the price can only go lower then open a cfd account and short NZO.

Eh, you want to count on past performance and forecasts of management & diehard NZOers?

[BigBob]

IF NZO had no revenue then the price can only go lower. With revenue based on the price of oil then if the oil price goes higher and NZO's revenue is based on oil then it should go higher. I agree with your comments regarding management entirely.


Balance - There are no sides only possibilities of what may be upcoming. Stop living off past predictions. If you agree with roger that the price can only go lower then open a cfd account and short NZO.

You beat me to it....!!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Big Bob & Roger how many NZO shares do Macquarie own that they want to sell or is it just My suspicious mind, about valueations

[BigBob]

Big Bob & Roger how many NZO shares do Macquarie own that they want to sell or is it just My suspicious mind, about valueations

As someone else said, valuations mean squat right now... it's sentiment that counts and that is at rock bottom! so if you think it's a good time to sell when everyone is bitching and moaning, go ahead and sell....

Despite what a number of posters here seem to think, the PRC tragedy was not caused by NZO's bad management. In fact, they are (and have been) dealing with an unprecedented situation and no matter what they do (and did) they will be criticised by a bunch of armchair company managers who know better!

The way I see it is that:
- NZO has a good income stream from Kupe and to a lesser extent TUI for 15-20 years
- oil prices are likely to increase,
- even though NZO may not have a drilling program next year, there are still plenty of upside potential in the longer term for both TUI and Kupe,
- God knows, they may even make a new discovery.
- and of course, you could also consider them a take-over target at the current price (if you believe in various valuations).

The point I was trying to make to Roger is that if he believes the valuation is 120 (which I think he stated), it is pretty irrational to discount that by 50% to justify selling out at a multi-year low. As per my Buffet quote, I believe that in this sort of situation patience is a virtue...!

[Balance]

As someone else said, valuations mean squat right now... it's sentiment that counts and that is at rock bottom! so if you think it's a good time to sell when everyone is bitching and moaning, go ahead and sell....

Despite what a number of posters here seem to think, the PRC tragedy was not caused by NZO's bad management. In fact, they are (and have been) dealing with an unprecedented situation and no matter what they do (and did) they will be criticised by a bunch of armchair company managers who know better!

The way I see it is that:
- NZO has a good income stream from Kupe and to a lesser extent TUI for 15-20 years
- oil prices are likely to increase,
- even though NZO may not have a drilling program next year, there are still plenty of upside potential in the longer term for both TUI and Kupe,
- God knows, they may even make a new discovery.
- and of course, you could also consider them a take-over target at the current price (if you believe in various valuations).

The point I was trying to make to Roger is that if he believes the valuation is 120 (which I think he stated), it is pretty irrational to discount that by 50% to justify selling out at a multi-year low. As per my Buffet quote, I believe that in this sort of situation patience is a virtue...!

Bad management = asset value destroyed = sp keep dropping.

Give gold to these guys and they will turn it into copper. Or in this case, oil into coal (now no more) and into dry holes.

[digger]

Told you yesterday that a stock exchange release would be soon on its way given the large turnover. ACC has been buying up ,now has lifted by 1.5 % to roughtly 6.5% of total of all shares held in NZO.

[Mr Tommy]

ACC been buying up large. SSH out

[Beagle]

Told you yesterday that a stock exchange release would be soon on its way given the large turnover. ACC has been buying up ,now has lifted by 1.5 % to roughtly 6.5% of total of all shares held in NZO.

1.5m at the six year low of 81 cents. Has it crossed anyone's mind that there must also be heavy institutional selling for those volumes to go through.

[777]

1.5m is not a lot.

[Beagle]

Big Bob & Roger how many NZO shares do Macquarie own that they want to sell or is it just My suspicious mind, about valueations

There's another valuation doing the rounds at $1.05 but as I and others have noted any valuation is meaningless with current management in place.

Big Bob - Here's my record for the 2010 year in relation to PRC and NZO, I made a small profit on NZO and here's my blog post of 20 September regarding PRC. I wonder how many other investors have made money out of both PRC and NZO this year ?
Not too shabby for an armchair manager !!


20-09-2010 11:56 AM #6398 Roger
This company, at very best, has an extremly chequered track record, at worst management are inept, incompetent, arrogant and have displayed a woeful approach to keeping investors informed of on-going developments, or more accuratly, what's not being developed.

I'm tired allready and I've only been an investor for three weeks !!

In at 97, out at 1.08, 11% profit for three weeks and won't be back till they can actually prove they have a viable profitable operational mine with management that have demonstrated a completly new approach to investor relations. Lets get real here guys. This company has a truly appalling record. At least NZO have some credibility and notwithstanding their sizeable investment in PRC are probably a better bet IMO.. Last edited by Roger; 20-09-2010 at 11:58 AM.

[Doyle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4490666/Payouts-for-Pike-River-contractors

I know I sound heartless, but personally im really dissapointed with this. Contractors always know there is a risk they won't get paid, that is why they charge a premium compared to their cost of labour.

NZO has lost enough money on this one as it ist I really feel they should screw every last cent they can out of PRC. Stuff anyone else, they have a moral responsibility to their shareholders.

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4490666/Payouts-for-Pike-River-contractors

I know I sound heartless, but personally im really dissapointed with this. Contractors always know there is a risk they won't get paid, that is why they charge a premium compared to their cost of labour.

NZO has lost enough money on this one as it ist I really feel they should screw every last cent they can out of PRC. Stuff anyone else, they have a moral responsibility to their shareholders.

You're absolutly right Doyle and I strongly suspected this would happen and its yet another example of truly pathetic management by NZO. They donated $500,000, provided all further funding of $12m almost immediatly when they had a force majure clause they could and should have excercised which amounts to a further donation and now this.

Fact is contractors have billed top commercial rates, (not wages, commercial contractors rates), , tens of millions of dollars to PRC for years and done extremly well indeed out of the mine yet shareholders have received nothing but repetitive taps on the shoulder for more capital, yet the Directors of NZO roll over like a labrador dog and hand out more of shareholders money despite having secured preferential status.

I've posted many times that the Directors of NZO have forgotten who they act for and this is yet another example of that. I am soooo happy to be out and feel sorry for all remaining shareholders.

[777]

Well don't feel sorry for me please. I have bought some more more and feel very relaxed about it.

[tim23]

Roger you are sharp can you kindly tell us all what to buy or sell next or even this weeks lotto numbers?

[RenHoek]

...I made a small profit on NZO.... Not too shabby for an armchair manager !!...
Huh!!? This does not seem right Roger.

Your post here says you bought shares on the 29th Nov for somewhere between 91c and 93c.
( NOTE: previous low was somewhere around 87c )

... Disclosure, bought some more NZO this morning...

Then your post here from the 22nd says you sold out at about 83c

... I'm out of this DOG today and won't be back...

So unless you bought LOTS at 81c at their record low a week ago, you seem to have lost money.

[Beagle]

Cheers Pal, actions speak louder than words so I'll tell you want I own at present in no particular order.

In N.Z. Barramund Warrants BRMWA, deep discount to asset backing in Barramundi and warrants give free exposure to capital gain for about 10 months
KIPGC - Very low risk, better than money in the bank, this is essentially my quassi cash holding, free capital gain potential on N.Z's premium property stock, effective, yeild to maturity at $1.05, about 7.6%
Ryman - Bought today ex proceeds of this NZO dog, see my post on Ryman thread
In Australia Pan Australia code PNA and Cape Lambert code CFE.
Templeton Emerging Markets code TEM - long term growth a no brainer their record speaks for itself.
I also hold a reasonable amount of Silver, the physical stuff.

Sorry can't help with this weeks Lotto numbers, have to keep those to myself LOL.

[Beagle]

Huh!!? This does not seem right Roger.

Your post here says you bought shares on the 29th Nov for somewhere between 91c and 93c.
( NOTE: previous low was somewhere around 87c )


Then your post here from the 22nd says you sold out at about 83c


So unless you bought LOTS at 81c at their record low a week ago, you seem to have lost money.

I invested in late August / early Sept 2010 in the range of $1.15 - $1.20, stripped out the 5 cent divvy and sold 80% of my holding in the buy-back, (which I strongly encouraged the company to do in the best interests of all shareholders of course), at an average of $1.30 in the following month or so ex divvy. Average gain there on 80% of my holding was over 10% and average time held was just over a month. Subsequently as you've noted bought a few more, not many at 92 cents and got out yesterday and took a loss on the 20% I held from September and the subsequent purchase mentioned above, that loss was covered and a little bit more besides by earlier gains.

All things considered taking into account the amount of time and effort investing and researcing NZO and PRC and a meagre profit overall its been an excercise in frustration but hey relative to what's gone on this year with those two dogs I'm very content with my final assessment of the situations. If I'd been reading the tea leaves a little better I wouldn't have bothered with either in the first place but I guess its better to have tried and escaped by the skin of your teeth and learned a bit along the way than to not have bothered at all. I am happy to gratefully acknowledge the postings of Balance and one or two other sceptics who helped me open my eyes to the pathetic business performance of PRC and certainly feel I dodged a bullet with that one.

If you want to hang around with existing NZO directors and mmanagement running the show, good luck mate.

[blockhead]

Gee Rog, you are THE man

I hope my kids grow up like you

[skid]

sounds like your playing a pretty hard nosed game roger,not sure if to many are going to feel sorry for you that you got bit this time,by your standards...guess its just Balance and notie now....

[peterfindlay]

Forsyth Barr seem to have an almost identical view of NZOG's value as Macquarie, and based on recent trading, perhaps ACC. The Forysth Barr research received is as follows:

New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZO)

Recalibrating for PRC Receivership

The terrible tragedy at PRC’s West Coast coal mine and the subsequent receivership of PRC has resulted in NZO’s share price falling approximately -38cps. In this note we examine the value of NZO following the PRC receivership.

What’s changed?

Earnings Impact: FY11 NPAT -$137.4m to -$104.0m.

Valuation Impact: -17cps to $1.20.

Recommendation: Upgraded from HOLD to ACCUMULATE.

PRC now in receivership

The receivers were called in on Monday 13 December as it became apparent that the mine environment was not going to allow a quick assessment of damage caused by the 19 November mine explosion.

Huge uncertainty over PRC value

Whilst the announcement that the receivers had been called in was not a significant surprise, it has done little to reduce the uncertainty for NZO and what its investment in PRC might be worth. Our analysis indicates that it is very unlikely that there will be any value left for PRC equity shareholders, but that NZO may recover some of its debt.

The key variable is PRC’s insurance contract. Whilst PRC has indicated that the maximum possible payout is $100m, we do not believe it will be that much, particularly once the time value of money is taken into consideration. Overall, we estimate that PRC is worth 5cps to NZO.

FY11 earnings will record a loss

We expect NZO will take the prudent course of action and write-off its PRC investment at the 1H11 result. We estimate the book value of NZO’s investment to be $142m.

Oil prices continue to surge

On the positive news front, oil prices have climbed substantially over the past three months. The WTIS price has risen to over NZD$120/barrel. To date, the market has not adjusted for the stronger oil prices, with no discernable improvement in the fortunes of NZO, nor the ASX300 Oil & Gas Exploration companies.

Investment View

The market has taken the view that PRC is worth nothing to NZO. We believe that this is overly pessimistic and NZO is currently trading at a -23% discount to our valuation (excluding exploration prospects). Our recommendation is ACCUMULATE.

[Bixbite]

FY11 earnings will record a loss

We expect NZO will take the prudent course of action and write-off its PRC investment at the 1H11 result. We estimate the book value of NZO’s investment to be $142m.





My view is that as long as the company NZO having income profits from Tui and Kupe and others projects in future, then the loss from PRC will be offset. The company will not pay income profit tax for "X" years. The ultimate loser is the New Zealand Inland Revenue.

No income tax pay = no imputation credit = no dividend

Perhaps, the company will have a new option issue - NZOOE . 2013 (30 months time).

.

[fish]

Bixbite -why would thy have a new option issue when they are making a $100 m a year and paying no tax ?
They could afford to encourage investors by having a cancellation of shares and compensating all shareholders with a tax free payment

[Balance]

My view is that as long as the company NZO having income profits from Tui and Kupe and others projects in future, then the loss from PRC will be offset. The company will not pay income profit tax for "X" years. The ultimate loser is the New Zealand Inland Revenue.

No income tax pay = no imputation credit = no dividend

Perhaps, the company will have a new option issue - NZOOE . 2013 (30 months time).

.

Wrong - PRC is a capital loss.

[geezy]

Merry Christmas to all to all NOGGERS :)

[digger]

Merry Christmas to all to all NOGGERS :)

Same to you Geezy. With oil prices continuing to rise things must get better. We have heard a lot about TUI declining in production but not that the oil is rising,Over the next 10 years it is entirely possible that NZO could get the same income from TUI as it gets now.Throw in that the NZ dollar will faLL as well into the cals and it looks even more likely.
2011 has got to be a better year for nzo than 2009 and 2010.