NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[fish]

Are you saying that free cash flows are 23.7 cps per annum and increasing? So if I buy at 77 cents today my investment will be paid back in about 3-4 years. Thanks.. will definitely be buying if that is the case.
But in all seriousness, what do you mean when you state that "Cash flow is $100m p.a"? Serious question.

nobody knows what future profits and dividends will be for high risk oil explorers.
Cash flow refers to income flowing into the company-which is $104 million in the last annual report.
For this year we can add royalties for kupe from genesis and origin and recent developments,pateke and Indonesia in the near future.

[Beagle]

Yes I two remember it was above one dollar in the eighties. I think the story went something like this. NZO was the major partner in discovering KUPE and the first assessment of what was in KUPE was very high.Later valuations put KUPE as having much less gas and oil than the first release. It was after this first high release that NZO S/P shot up in value. The next value for KUPE were as I said less and the S/P dropped. Now the rest of the story is still in the making. I believe from what I can get out of directors is that the second assessment turned out to be too low and I know a upward figures are somewhere in the pipe line. Genesis energy as much claimed this when they floated early this year. My own belief is that the very fist assessment will turn out to be right as time is moving the figures back that way. Such is the way with a lot of things given time.

Yeap that's pretty much as I recall it too. Apart from Kupe this company has been puke. Sorry I couldn't resist as it rhymed and used the same letters but really what else have they achieved other than to somehow successfully fritter the vast majority of the Kupe cash flow away on dry holes. Sometimes in a quieter moment I wonder if they would have had more success training up Beagle dog's to sniff out the oil.

[Balance]

nobody knows what future profits and dividends will be for high risk oil explorers.
Cash flow refers to income flowing into the company-which is $104 million in the last annual report.
For this year we can add royalties for kupe from genesis and origin and recent developments,pateke and Indonesia in the near future.

First time ever in the history of accounting that sales = income = cash flow!

Sorry, Fish but that is a nasty big hook you just swallowed.

Your exact words were : "Cash flow is $100 million p.a. and likely to increase so no need to keep such big cash reserves-time instead for shareholders to be rewarded."

The silence has been replaced by the desperate sound of a fish gulping, and then trashing around for an answer.

:D

[tim23]

Balance - you have too much time on your hands, is it fun being such a misery on NZOG?

[Balance]

Balance - you have too much time on your hands, is it fun being such a misery on NZOG?

You and Fish may be feeling miserable but I am having a WHALE of a time (get it, tim23? :D).

There's Digger asserting that Pike River was the government's fault and nothing to do with the gross mismanagement and now, fish asserting that cashflow = income = sales!

Cannot wait for the next contradiction to be uttered from the mouths of Noggers!

[barleeni]

You and Fish may be feeling miserable but I am having a WHALE of a time (get it, tim23? :D).

There's Digger asserting that Pike River was the government's fault and nothing to do with the gross mismanagement and now, fish asserting that cashflow = income = sales!

Cannot wait for the next contradiction to be uttered from the mouths of Noggers!

You may well be having a WHALE of a time Balance, but just for your information the purpose of this thread is not for you to keep your petty self amused. Please find some other way to keep yourself entertained and the leave the rest of us to it?

Just FYI, I am not a bull nor a bear, I do however hold shares in NZO but am fairly neutral on my position, I don't disagree or agree with what you say, im just extremely tired of the petty and time wasting nature of your entire existence in this space.

[Balance]

You may well be having a WHALE of a time Balance, but just for your information the purpose of this thread is not for you to keep your petty self amused. Please find some other way to keep yourself entertained and the leave the rest of us to it?

Just FYI, I am not a bull nor a bear, I do however hold shares in NZO but am fairly neutral on my position, I don't disagree or agree with what you say, im just extremely tired of the petty and time wasting nature of your entire existence in this space.

Listen to me and you would have saved yourself a lot of grief with this dog.

In all seriousness, I find too many heads in the sand posters on this thread and I consider it my duty to highlight for the newies just how deep their heads are in the sand.

Like cashflow = income = sales. This is as bad as it gets in financial analysis.

I also consider the management of NZOG to be grossly incompetent and their actions in respect of Pike River, immoral and cowardly. This thread will always serve as a reminder of just how immoral, cowardly and incompetent they are.

[barleeni]

No grief from my end, im currently net positive on my position so please don't make assumptions.

[Balance]

No grief from my end, im currently net positive on my position so please don't make assumptions.

Good on you.

But you get the point which is this - if someone can equate sales = income = cashflow as a basis for making investment decision, then that someone should take heed of his inadequacy?

Blackcap was sufficiently intrigued to ask the question on cashflow and he is no newie.

Imagine how a newie would be misled such such an assertion?

[digger]

You and Fish may be feeling miserable but I am having a WHALE of a time (get it, tim23? :D).

There's Digger asserting that Pike River was the government's fault and nothing to do with the gross mismanagement and now, fish asserting that cashflow = income = sales!

Cannot wait for the next contradiction to be uttered from the mouths of Noggers!

You are pretty good at contradicting yourself. Last year you were screaming that NZO had incompetent management because they did not give a capital repayment. This year your falling over last years contradiction.

Where are those 65 cent shares? Your silence on that one is deafening.
But cheers anyways.

[Balance]

And by the way, some of the ex-directors and ex-managers, and maybe some of the existing ones, may not sleep so well after this comment from John Key today :

"A "more fruitful path" would be to look at a civil prosecution against individuals.

"It would come at a significant cost and one that families should not have to bear," Mr Key said, indicating he would seek an opinion from Crown Law.

"If we can do it we will do it, " he said, making it clear any action would be taxpayer-funded."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11354441

[bunter]

Anyone have any thoughts on what NZO's EBITDA would be if they did no exploration (say) and were managed tightly?

Looking (superficially) at the last quarterly cash report, maybe $36m (9cps) per annum?

Not sure how they racked up $5m in 'admin costs' in one quarter.

[digger]

Anyone have any thoughts on what NZO's EBITDA would be if they did no exploration (say) and were managed tightly?

Looking (superficially) at the last quarterly cash report, maybe $36m (9cps) per annum?

Not sure how they racked up $5m in 'admin costs' in one quarter.

Now settle down bunter. It all depends on what the $5million covers. Its like this---the terms of agreement for the soon to be announce Kisaran production state that the oil discovering companies get 85% of the revenue until all their costs are covered,then the terms revert to the govt getting 85% and the oil companies getting 15% of the profit. Does this in any way help to see why the administration costs for the last quarter are 5 million ?

[Balance]

You are pretty good at contradicting yourself. Last year you were screaming that NZO had incompetent management because they did not give a capital repayment. This year your falling over last years contradiction.

Where are those 65 cent shares? Your silence on that one is deafening.
But cheers anyways.

Haha - Digger is really feeling it. Your ribs hurting?

Don't see you waiting at 65 cents so you need to show courage and show volume - Zeta (as I have stated before) is the only buyer and the sp is now sliding back downwards post the 'give back 15 cents of your losses' announcement. Zeta has just about done their dash.

You going to appear in court to support the directors and management of Pike & NZOG if they are sued in a civil suit? I mean, you strongly believe it's the government's fault, right?

[Bella52]

And by the way, some of the ex-directors and ex-managers, and maybe some of the existing ones, may not sleep so well after this comment from John Key today :

"A "more fruitful path" would be to look at a civil prosecution against individuals.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11354441

Balance, name a single person who was at NZOG and involved with PRC before it was floated and is still at the NZO

[Balance]

Balance, name a single person who was at NZOG and involved with PRC before it was floated and is still at the NZO

That's for NZOG and you to answer.

NZOG had its grubby hands all over Pike River - and it will not part with $1 of the insurance money to do the right and moral thing with the families of the dead miners.

[neopoleII]

""NZOG had its grubby hands all over Pike River - and it will not part with $1 of the insurance money to do the right and moral thing with the families of the dead miners. ""

ok.... I should not be posting after a few beers on a friday night, but..... didnt the banks get about a 1/3 of the payout.... and nzog put up a few 10s of millions to try to get into the mine, and then also paid out 10 or more mill to tradies and suppliers etc....... at the end of all the payments to others there wasnt much left for nzog.
the families have received quite substantial payouts to date........ a fair amount?.... that I cant judge..... but compared to other industrial accident victims..... lots more.
as for grubby hands all over pike....... I can in part agree with that........ but we do have employment laws in NZ that is supposed to stop corporate grubby hands.... yet the accident still happened.
With the mine being permanently closed now with no re entry...... and no actual proof of what really happened..... how can anyone or any entity procure a blame or actual cause?
The mine can be re entered...... if not from the drift....... then from the vent ....... the mine is only 100 meters or so below the ground.
yet....... no re entry ever........ whats with that?....... what is being hidden?

Going into the mine is not an impossibility..... and the answers are there.
then.......... we can place blame.
as for TR...... I would be happy to see him in a court room chair answering questions.
only then would I be content with what ever outcome happens.

[digger]

neopoleII ,I believe the greatest crime took place on the first two days after the first explosion. Some cop an x school teacher with no idea what he was doing decided to cover his butt and let no rescue take place. We do live in a crazy mixed up world generally run by lawyers so we end up with a situation that if you take an action that saves 10 people there is no credit,but a large deficit if you risk a life to save several others is entirely on the organiser .

I also strongly believe that not going into the mine is to hide evidence. Would not suprise me that some miners sat around waiting for a rescue being told that it was the safe thing to do. No panic just hold still and all would be right.
Even now we should cut the crap and enter the mine.
Would the mine inspector who just OK the mine be the first under a civil action. Or would it be John Key because under his watch costs were cut and left only 4 mine inspectors for the entire south Island.
neopoleII I believe you are right that until the mine is entered no entity can be blamed as the evidence hidden.

[tim23]

Balance - 5272 posts on NZO & PRC, should that be Imbalance?

[Balance]

neopoleII ,I believe the greatest crime took place on the first two days after the first explosion. Some cop an x school teacher with no idea what he was doing decided to cover his butt and let no rescue take place. We do live in a crazy mixed up world generally run by lawyers so we end up with a situation that if you take an action that saves 10 people there is no credit,but a large deficit if you risk a life to save several others is entirely on the organiser .

I also strongly believe that not going into the mine is to hide evidence. Would not suprise me that some miners sat around waiting for a rescue being told that it was the safe thing to do. No panic just hold still and all would be right.
Even now we should cut the crap and enter the mine.
Would the mine inspector who just OK the mine be the first under a civil action. Or would it be John Key because under his watch costs were cut and left only 4 mine inspectors for the entire south Island.
neopoleII I believe you are right that until the mine is entered no entity can be blamed as the evidence hidden.

Yes, Digger - we believe you. We believe you when you say you strongly believe TR and Gordon Ward are both saints who have suffered persecution.















:D

[digger]

Now now Balance you alone are the only saint that has ever come my way.
Cheers have a good weekend.

[Balance]

""NZOG had its grubby hands all over Pike River - and it will not part with $1 of the insurance money to do the right and moral thing with the families of the dead miners. ""

ok.... I should not be posting after a few beers on a friday night, but..... didnt the banks get about a 1/3 of the payout.... and nzog put up a few 10s of millions to try to get into the mine, and then also paid out 10 or more mill to tradies and suppliers etc....... at the end of all the payments to others there wasnt much left for nzog.
the families have received quite substantial payouts to date........ a fair amount?.... that I cant judge..... but compared to other industrial accident victims..... lots more.
as for grubby hands all over pike....... I can in part agree with that........ but we do have employment laws in NZ that is supposed to stop corporate grubby hands.... yet the accident still happened.
With the mine being permanently closed now with no re entry...... and no actual proof of what really happened..... how can anyone or any entity procure a blame or actual cause?
The mine can be re entered...... if not from the drift....... then from the vent ....... the mine is only 100 meters or so below the ground.
yet....... no re entry ever........ whats with that?....... what is being hidden?

Going into the mine is not an impossibility..... and the answers are there.
then.......... we can place blame.
as for TR...... I would be happy to see him in a court room chair answering questions.
only then would I be content with what ever outcome happens.

Some good questions raised so worthy of replies :

1. NZOG retained the bulk of the insurance payout. Andrew Knight was on Campbell Live defending its decision not to pay compensation to the families, citing the same thing - ie. NZOG had paid to suppliers, creditors, provide short term loan etc. He could not rebut the counter argument which was that NZOG did it for commercial reasons - to place itself in a position to control the outcome of the insurance claim and what happened to Pike mine. There was nothing charitable about NZOG's actions.

2. Corporate grubby hands - laws will not stop them. Only deter them. Look at what happened with the finance companies - all the laws in the world and we had crooks managing and mis-using billions of dollars of depositors' money. Pike River is worse than that - mishap after mishap, problem after problem, cost over-run on a grand scale, warnings from staff - but the company charged ahead raising funds one after another to plug the problems, closing eyes to what was really happening.

3. No actual proof? Plenty from the Royal Commission of Inquiry pointing to the litany of gross disregard for safety etc etc as well as gross mismanagement. Police obtains convictions all the time on circumstantial evidence and expert testimonies. Same here.

I find it truly amazing at this day and age that the government is blamed for the explosion at Pike River when it is clear that the explosion happened because Pike River/NZOG directors and management developed and managed the mine on a 'profit above all else' basis.

Plenty of traffic laws out there but hundreds still die from road accidents each year. Likewise, the mining rules are there but Pike directors and management chose to ignore them.

No mine, no explosion.

No safety breaches, no explosion.

The fact that TR and Gordon Ward, the two most instrumental in pushing ahead with Pike, refused to testify speaks volume.

[digger]

[QUOTE=Balance

The fact that TR and Gordon Ward, the two most instrumental in pushing ahead with Pike, refused to testify speaks volume.[/QUOTE]

Balance you are too impressed with yourself. You make wide statements and then assume they are true because over time you have often said so.

For others you have made this statement but can never follow it with facts. Again for the X time where and when did TR and GW refuse to testify. The truth that you refuse to deal with is that they were never called by the RC.

[kanaka]

Is it not time we started a new NZO thread based on their oil exploration activities?




Some good questions raised so worthy of replies :

1. NZOG retained the bulk of the insurance payout. Andrew Knight was on Campbell Live defending its decision not to pay compensation to the families, citing the same thing - ie. NZOG had paid to suppliers, creditors, provide short term loan etc. He could not rebut the counter argument which was that NZOG did it for commercial reasons - to place itself in a position to control the outcome of the insurance claim and what happened to Pike mine. There was nothing charitable about NZOG's actions.

2. Corporate grubby hands - laws will not stop them. Only deter them. Look at what happened with the finance companies - all the laws in the world and we had crooks managing and mis-using billions of dollars of depositors' money. Pike River is worse than that - mishap after mishap, problem after problem, cost over-run on a grand scale, warnings from staff - but the company charged ahead raising funds one after another to plug the problems, closing eyes to what was really happening.

3. No actual proof? Plenty from the Royal Commission of Inquiry pointing to the litany of gross disregard for safety etc etc as well as gross mismanagement. Police obtains convictions all the time on circumstantial evidence and expert testimonies. Same here.

I find it truly amazing at this day and age that the government is blamed for the explosion at Pike River when it is clear that the explosion happened because Pike River directors and management developed and managed the mine on a 'profit above all else' basis.

Plenty of traffic laws out there but hundreds still die from road accidents each year. Likewise, the mining rules are there but Pike directors and management chose to ignore them.

No mine, no explosion.

No safety breaches, no explosion.

The fact that TR and Gordon Ward, the two most instrumental in pushing ahead with Pike, refused to testify speaks volume.

[Balance]

Balance you are too impressed with yourself. You make wide statements and then assume they are true because over time you have often said so.

For others you have made this statement but can never follow it with facts. Again for the X time where and when did TR and GW refuse to testify. The truth that you refuse to deal with is that they were never called by the RC.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pike-river-mine-disaster/6090101/Former-Pike-River-chief-refuses-to-return-to-attend-inquiry

Excerpt : "A commission spokeswoman confirmed Ward had been asked to give evidence at this month's hearings, which resumed in the Greymouth District Court yesterday.

However, he declined to give oral or written evidence for any of the inquiry's four phases, she said."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pike-river-mine-disaster/7036234/Former-Pike-mine-boss-shuts-up-shop-after-tragedy

Digger, it is sad that you as someone who follows NZOG so closely have just showed yourself as incapable of facing the truth.

A fatal lapse of memory on your part - begs the question about your recollection of everything else about NZOG and Pike.

[BigBob]

I find it truly amazing at this day and age that the government is blamed for the explosion at Pike River when it is clear that the explosion happened because Pike River directors and management developed and managed the mine on a 'profit above all else' basis.

So, Balance you finally acknowledge that it is management and directors of PRC rather than NZO that in your opinion are culpable.

That at least is progress.

I assume you will now also be kind enough to take your tirades off to the PRC thread...

[Balance]

So, Balance you finally acknowledge that it is management and directors of PRC rather than NZO that in your opinion are culpable.

That at least is progress.

I assume you will now also be kind enough to take your tirades off to the PRC thread...

Thanks for highlighting that - edited.

You like how Digger just shoveled coal into his tractor's tank?

:D

[digger]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pike-river-mine-disaster/6090101/Former-Pike-River-chief-refuses-to-return-to-attend-inquiry

Excerpt : "A commission spokeswoman confirmed Ward had been asked to give evidence at this month's hearings, which resumed in the Greymouth District Court yesterday.

However, he declined to give oral or written evidence for any of the inquiry's four phases, she said."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pike-river-mine-disaster/7036234/Former-Pike-mine-boss-shuts-up-shop-after-tragedy

Digger, it is sad that you as someone who follows NZOG so closely have just showed yourself as incapable of facing the truth.

A fatal lapse of memory on your part - begs the question about your recollection of everything else about NZOG and Pike.


AS you well know declining and refusing to testify are in the eyes of the law entirely different things. Now stop the playing and show where both TR and GW refused to testify.
Can't poor Balance because it never happened regardless of how many of times you assert it did.

[Balance]

AS you well know declining and refusing to testify are in the eyes of the law entirely different things. Now stop the playing and show where both TR and GW refused to testify.
Can't poor Balance because it never happened regardless of how many of times you assert it did.

No point spliting hairs, Digger.

And no point shoving more coal dust into your fuel tank either - it does not work!

Or as is often advised, and we know it is hard for a digger, when you are in a hole - STOP digging!



.......... . :D

:D I LOVE it! :D

.......... . :D

[Billy Boy]

OK peoples

If you wish to discuss Pike River related matters do so on the Pike River Thread.
Do not use this thread.

1 Infraction or 1 warning followed by banning is available for anyone who ignores this.

STMOD
Ditto.... Ditto.... Bloody Ditto.
Go and do your belly bitching on the right thread you lot
BB:mad ;:

[kanaka]

OK peoples

If you wish to discuss Pike River related matters do so on the Pike River Thread.
Do not use this thread.

1 Infraction or 1 warning followed by banning is available for anyone who ignores this.

STMOD
Thank-you so much

[fish]

Its a good feeling waking up to a thread that hopefully will now concentrate on the present.
Thanks to whoever was responsible for the above.

[Balance]

Its a good feeling waking up to a thread that hopefully will now concentrate on the present.
Thanks to whoever was responsible for the above.

So back to the present where cash flow = income = sales?

:D

Or sales = cash flow?

[bunter]

Now settle down bunter. It all depends on what the $5million covers. Its like this---the terms of agreement for the soon to be announce Kisaran production state that the oil discovering companies get 85% of the revenue until all their costs are covered,then the terms revert to the govt getting 85% and the oil companies getting 15% of the profit. Does this in any way help to see why the administration costs for the last quarter are 5 million ?

That agreement seems to be about revenue. Is it an expensive agreement to administer?

Still wondering what what the annual admin cost is likely to be. $20m?

Mainly wondering what the company would look like if it:
1) just met its current exploring obligations - no new speculative drilling, at least not while the oil price is low.
2) Paid out spare cash by way of regular capital repayments, then dividends if and when it starts paying tax.

My best guess is $35m spare cash per annum, or approx 9 cps, for at least 5 years, then tapering.

Then the company would be a 'shouldn't lose - might win' investment - you'd probably get your 75c back in time - with some possible gain if they struck oil / gas.

[fish]

from the annual report for period ending 30/6/14
net cash balance =$135million
Cash flows from operations solid and able to fund near term development and dividend =88million

Imho there are too many variables to predict capital repayments but clearly they have the net cash balance and cash flows to fund more capital repayments as well as exploration.
We also have more royalties to come for kupe gas,and hopefully kisaran,a larger share of the tui pie plus pateke.
Oil price has fallen .exchange rate has fallen-if we still have 50% in us dollars our cash reserves will be more.
?how much will be spent on drilling-will the lower oil price reduce demand and prices for rigs ?

[Billy Boy]

Dunno about rig cost reducing very much.
I feel the oil price is being manipulated by the big boys playing mind games and brinkmanship with one another. Also the Russians must be feeling it. And of course shale oil becomes unprofitable below about $80 US.
One Govt referred to the low oil price as being a united measure to reboot economies !! What Bullsh*t.
When the Russians start behaving and Europe sorts it's self out, oil will rebound big time and so will inflation.
Therefore it could well be in NOG's interest to save reserves and spend cash.
BB

[Balance]

from the annual report for period ending 30/6/14
net cash balance =$135million
Cash flows from operations solid and able to fund near term development and dividend =88million

Imho there are too many variables to predict capital repayments but clearly they have the net cash balance and cash flows to fund more capital repayments as well as exploration.
We also have more royalties to come for kupe gas,and hopefully kisaran,a larger share of the tui pie plus pateke.
Oil price has fallen .exchange rate has fallen-if we still have 50% in us dollars our cash reserves will be more.
?how much will be spent on drilling-will the lower oil price reduce demand and prices for rigs ?

You need to do more 'fishing' for information - less than 20% in US$. Impeccable timing as per usual by the redoubtable team at NZOG.

[Balance]

Oh dear,

Zeta's latest SSH via Duncan Saville shows 83,678,388 shares - just shy of 20%.

Zeta can now only buy another 541,444 shares and that's it - 20%.

Looks like could be today - sp obviously under pressure as sellers dish them to avoid continued exposure to this non-performing company.

[tim23]

Oh dear - Imbalance is off again!

[Balance]

Oh dear - Imbalance is off again!

You mean sp is off, don't you?

Down over 10% from the post announcement price of 81c.

On a serious note then, why do you think that is?

Investors bailing out as company, directors and management have admitted they are hopeless at making investments and finding oil and gas?

[tim23]

There was only a small spike to 80/81c and only for a few trading hours 77c would be fairer reflection of the average recent price?

[Billy Boy]

There was only a small spike to 80/81c and only for a few trading hours 77c would be fairer reflection of the average recent price?
Don't bother arguing with him..... he's a perverted Greenee with a negative attitude to life

[digger]

Right now I would from past experience guess that NZO has run into some difficuities with the capital return,and that is what I would put the price slide of this last week down to. PPP another duel listed stock had this trouble a few years ago. Could be the IRD of either country is questioning the move.

[the machine]

Right now I would from past experience guess that NZO has run into some difficuities with the capital return,and that is what I would put the price slide of this last week down to. PPP another duel listed stock had this trouble a few years ago. Could be the IRD of either country is questioning the move.

Yes, the PPP CR took a long time and a complicated process - but the outcome was rather good - a decent part of the CR was treated as a dividend by ATO with franking credits, whilst for the rest is was a straight payment, subject to taxable income - the kicker being that other taxes and royalties paid by PPP were able to be picked up as a tax discount - this exceeded the value of the straight payment, with net result some could say, a payment by ATO.
Actually there was another kicker in that ATO just used 1:1 exchange rate - this worked particularly well to.

I did not follow the NZ side of the CR.


What NZO will do remains to be seen, but one should not sell their NZO shares in to much of a hurry IMO because a similar ruling to PPP will be very good. If it is completed within 6 months I would be surprised

M

[fabs]

What you guys are in effect saying is, that NZO management are incapable or slow learners.
Or playing a cunning game.
The sort of pastime one can leisurely indulge in, while sitting by the Trough with not much else to do.

[sideline]

Right now I would from past experience guess that NZO has run into some difficuities with the capital return,and that is what I would put the price slide of this last week down to. PPP another duel listed stock had this trouble a few years ago. Could be the IRD of either country is questioning the move.

I put the slide down to the MSCI rebalancing - NZO will drop out of the small caps index and instead be added to the micro caps index. Immediately after the announcement of the changes there was a rush of orders (mostly small odd numbers) as those investing in the small caps index sold their parcels and the
micro caps followers bought in. Small caps is obviously wider followed, hence some net selling occurred.

[Balance]

I put the slide down to the MSCI rebalancing - NZO will drop out of the small caps index and instead be added to the micro caps index. Immediately after the announcement of the changes there was a rush of orders (mostly small odd numbers) as those investing in the small caps index sold their parcels and the
micro caps followers bought in. Small caps is obviously wider followed, hence some net selling occurred.

In which case will be more downside yet as the most aggressive selling (or buying) for index rebalancing happens on the day of change itself.

[tim23]

You can't talk about rebalancing Imbalance!

[Balance]

Right now I would from past experience guess that NZO has run into some difficuities with the capital return,and that is what I would put the price slide of this last week down to. PPP another duel listed stock had this trouble a few years ago. Could be the IRD of either country is questioning the move.

Heading towards 65c, Digger.

You ready with your orders?

Or you need a helping hand from yours truly here?

:D

[tim23]

Pretty good - I kept you silent for 2 days!

[Balance]

In the mean time where are those 65 cent shares?????

Investors selling out as no dividends in future.

u ready at 65c?

Do be careful as it could be a ploy by Zeta to drive the sp to 35c and then, takeover to strip the company clean?

In which case, wait at 30c.

:D

[tim23]

Not sure if people own this is a yield stock, the change in dividend policy is not due to inability to pay its just not efficient for shareholders as dividends have no imputation credits.

[fish]

Not sure if people own this is a yield stock, the change in dividend policy is not due to inability to pay its just not efficient for shareholders as dividends have no imputation credits.
IMHO is best use of a portion of spare capital.
I suspect Zeta resources and their director will result in far more efficiency.

[Balance]

New Zealand Oil & Gas was the worst performer on the benchmark index falling 2.8 percent to 70 cents. The listed energy explorer will return about $60 million to shareholders saying cash on hand will be more than it needs to grow its business as production ramps up at the Tui field. The company paid a final dividend of 3 cents a share in September but doesn't expect to declare any more dividends "in the near term" because it is deducting exploration expenses from its tax bill and isn't accruing imputation credits.

"Initially the price went up on the back of directors were considering a 15 cent capital return to shareholders, however the negative side has really taken over, being they don't intend to pay any more dividends in the foreseeable future," Williamson said. "Investors were actually in New Zealand Oil & Gas for the income because they were paying reasonable dividends."

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-shares-rise-paced-spark-nzog-falls-suspended-dividend-bd-165411

[fabs]

IMHO is best use of a portion of spare capital.
I suspect Zeta resources and their director will result in far more efficiency.

Plus Can they take a hint????

[ Example ]


Bathurst Resources [NZX: BRL], which was last year granted consent for an open-cast mine on the West Coast's Denniston Plateau, has trimmed down its board size as it clamps down on costs while waiting for the global coking coal market to improve.

[fish]

whilst on this theme I understand the directors will have lots of partially paid shares.
A return of capital would make these less likely to reach their exercise price.
No doubt they will have some kind of provision to circumvent this.
Anybody know?

[sideline]

whilst on this theme I understand the directors will have lots of partially paid shares.
A return of capital would make these less likely to reach their exercise price.
No doubt they will have some kind of provision to circumvent this.
Anybody know?

I guess the exercise price will be adjusted accordingly - in any case they'll have to work for it (and shareholders) if they ever
want to get any joy out of those partially paid shares - the lowest exercise price is about 95c.

Incidentally, I noted in the full year accounts page 22 section 9(c) that Available Imputation Credits on 30 June 14 were 1.1m - not enough for meaningful imputation this time. What I didn't find were the expenses/losses carried forward which reduce the current year's tax bill. Perhaps someone could point
out where to find those numbers in the accounts so we can get a feeling for when imputation credits will be accrued again.

[Balance]

I guess the exercise price will be adjusted accordingly - in any case they'll have to work for it (and shareholders) if they ever
want to get any joy out of those partially paid shares - the lowest exercise price is about 95c.

Incidentally, I noted in the full year accounts page 22 section 9(c) that Available Imputation Credits on 30 June 14 were 1.1m - not enough for meaningful imputation this time. What I didn't find were the expenses/losses carried forward which reduce the current year's tax bill. Perhaps someone could point
out where to find those numbers in the accounts so we can get a feeling for when imputation credits will be accrued again.

It's a nonsense for any company to stop paying dividends due to lack of imputation credits - it does not really matter whether the company pays tax or the shareholders.

What does make sense is when a company is sitting on tax losses - in which case the tax losses need to be utilised before a company start paying dividends.

[arjay]

Wonder how a suspended dividend will be taken by cornerstone holders like ACC who will stop recieving an income.

[dodgy]

Capital returns invariably result in a lowering of the share price equal or greater than the return amount over the long term - all things being equal. Share price will spike up just prior but will still settle down. So with no dividends imputed or otherwise as Balance correctly states, your total return is severely reduced. Wake up NZO directors - you are clutching at straws!

[fabs]

Wake up NZO directors - you are clutching at straws![/QUOTE]

No worries, they know exactly what there doing.
Seem to be more capable of anything other than realizing the Company's repetitive mantra = CREATING WEALTH FOR THE S/HOLDERS;
Should be more like WAKE-UP Share holders.
Some body will do very well out of this but it wont be the S/Hs the way its trending.
Hope sincerely to be proofed wrong.

[Balance]

Digger has gone awfully quiet?

Trust you are getting your funds ready for the 65 cents shares?

Zeta has run out of space to buy anymore.

[Balance]

16,000 only to buy at 65c - where is Digger?

The way he was going on, I thought he was going to sell his Komatsu digger and buy NZOG at 65c.


:D


I LOVE it!


:D

[fabs]

[QUOTE=sideline;516909]I guess the exercise price will be adjusted accordingly - in any case they'll have to work for it (and shareholders) if they ever
want to get any joy out of those partially paid shares - the lowest exercise price is about 95c.

These preferential shares as i understand it have pr-been payed to 1 cent so far. { $1000 for 100000] shares
So at the rate the S/P descents at present, if the directors feel that the S/P for some hard to imagine reason should claim again to the rarefied high of 95 cents or beyond,can pick them up at the right time for who knows what.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=sideline;516909]I guess the exercise price will be adjusted accordingly - in any case they'll have to work for it (and shareholders) if they ever
want to get any joy out of those partially paid shares - the lowest exercise price is about 95c.

These preferential shares as i understand it have pr-been payed to 1 cent so far. { $1000 for 100000] shares
So at the rate the S/P descents at present, if the directors feel that the S/P for some hard to imagine reason should claim again to the rarefied high of 95 cents or beyond,can pick them up at the right time for who knows what.

It's a 'heads they win, tails other shareholders lose' share deal - the shares simply get forfeited if sp does not rise above exercise price.

[skid]

16,000 only to buy at 65c - where is Digger?

The way he was going on, I thought he was going to sell his Komatsu digger and buy NZOG at 65c.




:D


I LOVE it!


:D

That 16000 has turned to a quarter of a million---you must be disappointed(up 1 to 69

[Balance]

That 16000 has turned to a quarter of a million---you must be disappointed(up 1 to 69

I see 35,000 to buy at 65c - you must be looking at another stock?

But why would I be disappointed? I wish my mate, Digger, well and as he stated he is eager for stock at 65c, he should be waiting there to get priority.

Or is it a case of Digger digging deeper again when he is already in a big enough hole to bury his faith in NZOG?

[BFG]

Meanwhile, TAP directors are hungrily buying into cheap shares on an almost daily basis. Also gave good commentary onnnumbers, why they're buying etc yesterday in an an announcement.

Noggers, you have an alternative here! Stop trying to defend this dog and go elsewhere!

[Balance]

That 16000 has turned to a quarter of a million---you must be disappointed(up 1 to 69

Oh dear, the 35,000 to buy at 65c has just dropped to 30,000 as the sp drops to 66.5c.

I actually thought Digger would front up and put a few more to capture the selldown as the sp heads to 65c.

Or has Digger's tractor gotten bogged down in the NZOG hole?

Or maybe he now thinks the sp will be 55c?


:D


I LOVE it!

:D

[Sideshow Bob]

These directors really know how to take care of the share price.

Tools.

Lucky I sold a good chunk a while ago. Unluckily didn't sell them all.

[tim23]

Balance - pride might come before a fall, you may have been told that by your parents?

[BFG]

TAP Directors still buying more. Exit NZO + buy TAP × Kiwi strengthening again = best thing you'll probably ever do.

Right, I'll leave it to Balance now. :D

[Balance]

Balance - pride might come before a fall, you may have been told that by your parents?

A bit of leg-pulling not to be taken too seriously - Digger gives as good as he takes.

The falling sp could very well be the wake up call Duncan Saville needs to bring in some seriously qualified and quality management - quality, not quantity.

Tony Radford, Gordon Ward, David Salisbury and now, Andrew Knight - wealth destroyers, not wealth creators.

[ziggy415]

remember it was Zeta and dunc that instigated the capital repayment which balance said was not so good now your singing his praises....bob each way huh

[Balance]

remember it was Zeta and dunc that instigated the capital repayment which balance said was not so good now your singing his praises....bob each way huh

Haha - hardly singing his praises. He bought into a pup and now needs to make it perform - nothing short of a surgical strike on the clowns running this outfit can change its fortunes.

What's the point of a capital repayment when oil price is heading down and soon, there are going to be some great oil & gas assets to be bought off distressed companies?

NZOG should be keeping the cash. Remember the clowns at NZOG made that dumb mistake 4-5 years ago of not buying assets when oil prices tank.

[kanaka]

What's the point of a capital repayment when oil price is heading down and soon, there are going to be some great oil & gas assets to be bought off distressed companies?

NZOG should be keeping the cash. Remember the clowns at NZOG made that dumb mistake 4-5 years ago of not buying assets when oil prices tank.

But then again you could take the 15c return and buy shares in good oil companies OSH, STO or even BHP and take advantage of the high NZD.
For mine I've been buying BHP
Lukim

[Balance]

But then again you could take the 15c return and buy shares in good oil companies OSH, STO or even BHP and take advantage of the high NZD.
For mine I've been buying BHP
Lukim

That is true, kanaka.

Point is that NZOG management seems to miss every opportunity to create real wealth for shareholders - now is the time for them to have cash and acquire good assets.

[kanaka]

That is true, kanaka.

Point is that NZOG management seems to miss every opportunity to create real wealth for shareholders - now is the time for them to have cash and acquire good assets.

Sometimes you have to put your destiny into your own hands; especially when history tells you that is the best option

[Casino]

That is true, kanaka.

Point is that NZOG management seems to miss every opportunity to create real wealth for shareholders - now is the time for them to have cash and acquire good assets.

I actually agree with you but that's how the industry works. It's this kind of thinking that will drive the next oil boom to new highs though maybe not in the near future.

[Beagle]

I actually agree with you but that's how the industry works. It's this kind of thinking that will drive the next oil boom to new highs though maybe not in the near future.

Agree but with managements track record I reckon its better for shareholders to go shopping for oil company bargains themselves.

[Casino]

Agree but with managements track record I reckon its better for shareholders to go shopping for oil company bargains themselves.

Does Statoil count as a NZ oiler? But yes plenty of bargains to be found worldwide.

[Balance]

Someone put up 150,000 to buy at 66.5c, followed by another investor (or same?) 80k - big enough numbers to normally hold the sp but the selling continues.

Wonder if it has anything to do with one broker's recommendation that Indonesia is but a big monetary sink-hole worth 4c a share after all the money and time spent by NZOG's directors and management.

[arjay]

At the current SP I'm surprised NZO aren't buying their own shares back.

[BFG]

At the current SP I'm surprised NZO aren't buying their own shares back.

Hahahahahahaha!

This line made my Knight! :D ;) :D ;) :D

[tim23]

gee if that did it for you I hate to see you watching Renters or something!

[Balance]

At the current SP I'm surprised NZO aren't buying their own shares back.

The directors are not putting up their hands and buying shares, are they?

Hell of a show of (no)confidence by them.

Easier to have those 'heads they win, tails they do not lose' options and partly paid shares.

How NZOG rewards its bunch of clowns must be another area Zeta needs to crack down on and make the management really work and produce results.

Dry hole or bad investment, the option price is ratcheted upwards by the amount of the loss so they will be more careful next time.

[arjay]

GM Exploration has 'resigned'. Probably headhunted ..... hahahahaha..... We'll miss him, he was doing so well. Come back Eric Matthews, all is forgiven.

[BFG]

GM Exploration has 'resigned'. Probably headhunted ..... hahahahaha..... We'll miss him, he was doing so well. Come back Eric Matthews, all is forgiven.

Not even a "thank you" or "this is what he did while employed here". Ruthless! Not that he did much anyways.

I sense some changes in the wind. Now, where is the Zeta to our RAK?

[Balance]

Not even a "thank you" or "this is what he did while employed here". Ruthless! Not that he did much anyways.

I sense some changes in the wind. Now, where is the Zeta to our RAK?

Be careful what you wish.

Haha

[digger]

At the current SP I'm surprised NZO aren't buying their own shares back.


Looks like the company is trying to do just that with this so called capital return. Capital returns do not then remove shares just give back some cash for each share held. Buy backs gives money for shares cancelled and that is usually up to the individual shareholder to elect to take part. So we have this claytons capital return which is just a buy back by any other name.
So what is the plot. Smells to me like it could be a way to by pass the takeover code. If it is a buyback in reality regardless of what name it is given then then anyone or any company could elect not to take part and after the smoke clears will find that their percentage holding in the company has increased. So if company x is sitting on 20% prior to this buy back and company x does not take part in this so called capital return there percentage holding of the company will increase above the 20% limit of the takeover code. But most importantly it will increase above this 20% limit from no action from company x,so company x can hardly be accused of violating the takeover code when in fact the action that that allowed that to happen was taken by the target company.

What do other think? Now I do not know the small print and what I have stated above will not hold if everyone must take part in this claytons buyback that is going under the name of a capital return

[Balance]

Best defense against takeover is performance and sp strength.

NZOG has neither - just a bunch of clowns who have destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars of shareholders wealth.

[fabs]

I sense some changes in the wind. Now, where is the Zeta to our RAK?[/QUOTE] By BFG

Zeta maybe busy getting a director on CUE Energy's Board, a move opposed by that Cos. Directors.
Also what is the Tax situation with this share-buy-back scenario anybody??
BTW Digger; the 6 cents div. this year looks now like a CLAYTON Div. PAYMENT. when you end-up out of pocket, not getting one.
Typical Smoke & Mirror stuff, one is quite getting used to.

[the machine]

Looks like the company is trying to do just that with this so called capital return. Capital returns do not then remove shares just give back some cash for each share held. Buy backs gives money for shares cancelled and that is usually up to the individual shareholder to elect to take part. So we have this claytons capital return which is just a buy back by any other name.
So what is the plot. Smells to me like it could be a way to by pass the takeover code. If it is a buyback in reality regardless of what name it is given then then anyone or any company could elect not to take part and after the smoke clears will find that their percentage holding in the company has increased. So if company x is sitting on 20% prior to this buy back and company x does not take part in this so called capital return there percentage holding of the company will increase above the 20% limit of the takeover code. But most importantly it will increase above this 20% limit from no action from company x,so company x can hardly be accused of violating the takeover code when in fact the action that that allowed that to happen was taken by the target company.

What do other think? Now I do not know the small print and what I have stated above will not hold if everyone must take part in this claytons buyback that is going under the name of a capital return

The CR applies to all holders wether they like it or not.

Just imagine if there was an opt out for the CR - this would lead to 2 types of shares - one that has had the CR, trading lower than one that has not had the CR = very confusing and very expensive to manage

The CR is coming with the "changing of the guard" and which directors will still be around 1-2 years from now is yet to play out

M

[digger]

[QUOTE=the machine;518079]The CR applies to all holders wether they like it or not.

Just imagine if there was an opt out for the CR - this would lead to 2 types of shares - one that has had the CR, trading lower than one that has not had the CR = very confusing and very expensive to manage. End Quote.



That the capital return applies to all shares whether they like it or not is as how I first thought it. But what if it isn,t. Well for a start your bit about two types of shares is simply not correct. There would be just one type of share as of now it is just that those that did not take part would not have 20% of their shares cancelled and would therefor increase their percentage holding in the company.. If Zeta did not for example there % holding in the company would go from 20% before the buyback to 25% after. That would be a way around the takeover code as from my above post.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=the machine;518079]The CR applies to all holders wether they like it or not.

Just imagine if there was an opt out for the CR - this would lead to 2 types of shares - one that has had the CR, trading lower than one that has not had the CR = very confusing and very expensive to manage. End Quote.



That the capital return applies to all shares whether they like it or not is as how I first thought it. But what if it isn,t. Well for a start your bit about two types of shares is simply not correct. There would be just one type of share as of now it is just that those that did not take part would not have 20% of their shares cancelled and would therefor increase their percentage holding in the company.. If Zeta did not for example there % holding in the company would go from 20% before the buyback to 25% after. That would be a way around the takeover code as from my above post.

Waiver required from NZX and other shareholders for Zeta to creep another 5%.

Zeta needs the cash so there is no issue in my mind of them not accepting.

Meanwhile, sp is getting down towards 65c, Digger-me-ole-mate. You there to help yourself to a few of the little beauties at 65c?

[arjay]

How does a CR result in cancelled shares? I can see how a buy-back could result in a company's holding rising above 20% if they elected not to take part (in which case I assume they would be required to sell down to below 20% again). However, a CR only results in less capital backing for the same number of shares?

[digger]

[QUOTE=digger;518088]

Waiver required from NZX and other shareholders for Zeta to creep another 5%.

Zeta needs the cash so there is no issue in my mind of them not accepting.

Meanwhile, sp is getting down towards 65c, Digger-me-ole-mate. You there to help yourself to a few of the little beauties at 65c?


hi Balance me-old-mate. Do not worry I have not forgotten you or the 65 cent thing. It is just as it gets near 65 someone else buys it back up. Also it seems that the SP could rise as the WTI has bottomed and rising a little. Also with the 20% share cancellation the worry that the CR will just come off the SP is removed. Think I might miss out on those good 65 cent shares you promised me. Of coarse you could buy them at whatever and on sell to me at 65,just to keep us all sweet.
I did like that bit about I give as good as i get. The problem is that some other do not have the same since of humor and take it too seriously.
cheers all

[Balance]

[QUOTE=Balance;518096]


hi Balance me-old-mate. Do not worry I have not forgotten you or the 65 cent thing. It is just as it gets near 65 someone else buys it back up. Also it seems that the SP could rise as the WTI has bottomed and rising a little. Also with the 20% share cancellation the worry that the CR will just come off the SP is removed. Think I might miss out on those good 65 cent shares you promised me. Of coarse you could buy them at whatever and on sell to me at 65,just to keep us all sweet.
I did like that bit about I give as good as i get. The problem is that some other do not have the same since of humor and take it too seriously.
cheers all

Just sit there at 65c, Digger - I have a nice feeling it will come to you within the next few days.

Otherwise, what's a cent here and there amongst ole-mates? :D

Me thinkth some posters have have fallen seriously for NZOG and can't bear for it to be describe as 'ugly'? Bit like the first girlfriend? :D

[arjay]

Where's Balance? - thought he'd be crowing from the rafters today.

I'm interested in this line from a Morningstar report from last month: "Woodward Partners said in the past decade NZOG had taken part in 28 wells with an overall 46 per cent success rate, which was no worse than average for the region."

Suggests NZOG has had more than 10 successful wells in the last 10 years. Apart from the recent Pateke well I can't think of any commercial discoveries since 2004, given that Indo hasn't been proven up yet and the Tui field production wells weren't discoveries. Any ideas?

[digger]

Balance before you start crowing my computer is broken down and I can't reply.

[Balance]

Balance before you start crowing my computer is broken down and I can't reply.

Now would I do a thing like that, Digger-me-ole-mate?

Hope you took the opportunity to pick up a few of them puppies at 65c.

[sideline]

Last day for the MSCI index adjustments today.

[Balance]

Last day for the MSCI index adjustments today.

Some huge volumes done at 64c. Was as low as 62c.

I hope Digger got some of 'em little beauties as he wanted to.

[digger]

Some huge volumes done at 64c. Was as low as 62c.

I hope Digger got some of 'em little beauties as he wanted to.


For once in my life I took your advise and decided to wait until they hit your new thirty mark.

sure is some big seller wanting out. Must be TR as he would be one of the few big enough to keep selling. Have never see him having to do a holding release so he must have had under 5% so about just less than 20 million. Can not now be too far from sold up.

[fabs]

Starting to get a bit more ominous, just who is buying that seemingly worthless script??
Not the sort of buying power and frenzy of your regular mum & dad investors.
Any OPINIONS,
Just a bit curious.

[Balance]

Starting to get a bit more ominous, just who is buying that seemingly worthless script??
Not the sort of buying power and frenzy of your regular mum & dad investors.
Any OPINIONS,
Just a bit curious.

MSCI index funds selling out as NZOG out of small cap index.

MSCI index funds buying in as NZOG into micro-cap index.

[BFG]

MSCI index funds selling out as NZOG out of small cap index.

MSCI index funds buying in as NZOG into micro-cap index.

Wash, rinse, repeat in 6 months when NZO falls out of that index as well.

Ouch!

[Balance]

Wash, rinse, repeat in 6 months when NZO falls out of that index as well.

Ouch!

That's when Digger will get his 35 cents?

:D

[fabs]

MSCI index funds selling out as NZOG out of small cap index.

MSCI index funds buying in as NZOG into micro-cap index.

Thanks for that, crossed my mind but didn't know the mecs. of it.

[Billy Boy]

That's when Digger will get his 35 cents?


That's getting into take over territory is'nt it ???
BB

[BFG]

See ya later NZO. 65 cents is going to look expensive soon.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0JA0O320141127?irpc=932

[dodgy]

Come on digger, help shareholders - by all accounts you have extensive shareholdings and should be calling for change here. I think its time for Mr. Knight to leave this sinking boat ( he has been in the Directorship thru Pike and now coupled with CEO must have and had huge influence). A hugely radical change of approach is needed , probably with new management to avoid complete failure from here on.

[fabs]

[QUOTE=dodgy;519483]
I think its time for Mr. Knight to leave this sinking boat ( he has been in the Directorship thru Pike and now coupled with CEO must have and had huge influence).

Ha,Ha, no worries there!
That lot needs no advise how long to stay on to milk it to the MAX.
Could also be the nearest to insider trading i guess.

[J R Ewing]

Now would be a great time for NZO to announce the FID and expected cash flow from Kisaran!

[Master98]

looks like NZO will become another PPP.

[dodgy]

Now would be a great time for NZO to announce the FID and expected cash flow from Kisaran!

Hi
From what I can see NZO share if and when granted will be nickles and dimes compared to the capital /share decreased value. How can anyone believe that a cap. return at 75c/share and cancel 1 in 5 will be even 1/2 smart compared to an on market buy back sub sub 70c.

[digger]

Come on digger, help shareholders - by all accounts you have extensive shareholdings and should be calling for change here. I think its time for Mr. Knight to leave this sinking boat ( he has been in the Directorship thru Pike and now coupled with CEO must have and had huge influence). A hugely radical change of approach is needed , probably with new management to avoid complete failure from here on.

I can not see how AK has anything at all to do with the falling SP.How has he had any influence with world events. It has all to do with the war. Putin wants Ukraine and ISIS is to be deprived of income regardless of outcome. Also OPEC has for some time now said they are not going to be the swing producers and want to take on the US shale oil head on. Let the market decide. All this sure hurts me but war is war and all NZO holders are part of the meat in the sandwrich. The rest of the world oil producers all also hurting or are soon going to.Canada's oil sands will be in deep sh-t. On last account Putin will be losing 140 billion a year compared to $100 oil he was to balance his books on. And that was before last fall of $5.50 of the WTI. last night.
This collapse of the world crude has hurt all producers,and will end badly after a few years we will be short of oil again. Boom and bust is the cycle. Beyond that all I can say is buckle down and do not spend it unless you have to. I see world oil being down for a few years not months.

[dodgy]

I can not see how AK has anything at all to do with the falling SP.How has he had any influence with world events. It has all to do with the war. Putin wants Ukraine and ISIS is to be deprived of income regardless of outcome. Also OPEC has for some time now said they are not going to be the swing producers and want to take on the US shale oil head on. Let the market decide. All this sure hurts me but war is war and all NZO holders are part of the meat in the sandwrich. The rest of the world oil producers all also hurting or are soon going to.Canada's oil sands will be in deep sh-t. On last account Putin will be losing 140 billion a year compared to $100 oil he was to balance his books on. And that was before last fall of $5.50 of the WTI. last night.
This collapse of the world crude has hurt all producers,and will end badly after a few years we will be short of oil again. Boom and bust is the cycle. Beyond that all I can say is buckle down and do not spend it unless you have to. I see world oil being down for a few years not months.
Hi Digger
Forget the current, in part world inspired share price, and focus on the fact that under current leadership the share price has collapsed and WILL continue to do so
until a radical shakeup occurs. From a capital sale @ $1.50 a year or so back to a capital buy @ .75 - great return even with the stellar dividends - imputed or not. Yeah right! Unless this outfit buys existing production, then based on the last ten years its all downhill. Time for change - PR spins or not - or goodby majority of capital. Surely you can see this.

[Balance]

I can not see how AK has anything at all to do with the falling SP.How has he had any influence with world events. It has all to do with the war. Putin wants Ukraine and ISIS is to be deprived of income regardless of outcome. Also OPEC has for some time now said they are not going to be the swing producers and want to take on the US shale oil head on. Let the market decide. All this sure hurts me but war is war and all NZO holders are part of the meat in the sandwrich. The rest of the world oil producers all also hurting or are soon going to.Canada's oil sands will be in deep sh-t. On last account Putin will be losing 140 billion a year compared to $100 oil he was to balance his books on. And that was before last fall of $5.50 of the WTI. last night.
This collapse of the world crude has hurt all producers,and will end badly after a few years we will be short of oil again. Boom and bust is the cycle. Beyond that all I can say is buckle down and do not spend it unless you have to. I see world oil being down for a few years not months.

Why NZO should be conserving cash (rather than pay out) so it can buy up some great oil assets soon, before the boom starts again.

[Billy Boy]

I agree with you Digger
Dodgy... good points and valid.
A wise man put it this way for me :-
ISIS... starve them of $$$
Putin... Starve him of $$$, although the Russian winter will help him.
Shale/Sand oils ... run them broke. Mothball them.
OPEC... looking after their own bums. And they have control of the market.
and this one...
Cheap fuel and interest rates is probably the only recovery path for Europe
and the EEC. And even then it will take time.
Big thinking behind curtains? G20 maybe. G10 ?.
Face facts, if Europe goes into deep depression/deflation, we all suffer big time.
My post is a generalization, But think about it.
BB
My friend is a wise man

[digger]

My point that all producers will and are suffering from the drop in WTI and Brent is to do a relative comparison of TAP to NZO. TAP was 70 cents when NZO was 80. Now TAp is 45.5 so where would NZO be at that same fall.
Simple ratio has it at 52.5 cents.


70/45.5 = 80/x


X then equals 52 cents.
So NZO faired the storm better than TAP.




On average NZO will fall one cent for every two dollar fall in WTI.


But I must say AK would be flattered to think he had as much influence as some posters are suggesting. It all comes down to world events. And yes it hurts but AK has nothing to do with it. Try Putin.

[Balance]

My point that all producers will and are suffering from the drop in WTI and Brent is to do a relative comparison of TAP to NZO. TAP was 70 cents when NZO was 80. Now TAp is 45.5 so where would NZO be at that same fall.
Simple ratio has it at 52.5 cents.


70/45.5 = 80/x


X then equals 52 cents.
So NZO faired the storm better than TAP.




On average NZO will fall one cent for every two dollar fall in WTI.


But I must say AK would be flattered to think he had as much influence as some posters are suggesting. It all comes down to world events. And yes it hurts but AK has nothing to do with it. Try Putin.

Still trying to defend the incompetent management and directors at NZOG, Digger?

Tony Radford, Gordon Ward, David Salisbury and Andrew Knight - what have they got in common?

Clue - they all work for the same company but think they are so ...

[BFG]

My point that all producers will and are suffering from the drop in WTI and Brent is to do a relative comparison of TAP to NZO. TAP was 70 cents when NZO was 80. Now TAp is 45.5 so where would NZO be at that same fall.
Simple ratio has it at 52.5 cents.


70/45.5 = 80/x


X then equals 52 cents.
So NZO faired the storm better than TAP.




On average NZO will fall one cent for every two dollar fall in WTI.


But I must say AK would be flattered to think he had as much influence as some posters are suggesting. It all comes down to world events. And yes it hurts but AK has nothing to do with it. Try Putin.

You are comparing a company that has just started production 2 weeks ago vs one that has been pumping for years? And a company that is in debt funding its development vs one with cash reserves?

Do you like apples or pears more when you eat them together?

[fabs]

Hard to believe that there are still individuals on this forum, that seriously dream NZO is still around if & when the O/P rises.
If indeed it lasts the next 12 months.
Blaming Putin is a laugh, while Nato bombers fly over terrorist held producing Gas & Oil installation, on there way to supposedly destroy ISIS POS. in Kobani.

[digger]

You are comparing a company that has just started production 2 weeks ago vs one that has been pumping for years? And a company that is in debt funding its development vs one with cash reserves?

Do you like apples or pears more when you eat them together?

Ok try AWE then. According to web site graph AWE was $1-80 when NZO was 78. AWE is now $139.5. On that same percentage ratio NZO would be 60.45.
My simple point is that all oil producers are suffering the crude drop,and mostly I see little value in blaming AK. AK or any of us are just not that important on the world stage.

[digger]

Why NZO should be conserving cash (rather than pay out) so it can buy up some great oil assets soon, before the boom starts again.

Here Balance you have presented one of your better ideas for discussion. For many years I have been in favor of exploring and NZO sells itself as an explorer. After the TIN CAN fiasco I am dead against further exploring at least until we can sort out an agreement with the drillers who pays for there mistakes.
Buying existing production may be better in the hands of each shareholder than from NZO.. NZO shows any interest in acquistions and it will simply drive up the price. Each individual can do that without having any effect on the SP. Also there is the small concern that NZO as a company was not set up to simply invest in other companies.
I am in favor of the company going ahead with the 1 for 5 cancellation and giving 15 cants for each share.

[digger]

What do you poster think nZO SP will be after the 15 cent distribution and 1 for 5 cancellation. Here is my simple algebra.
Today it is 62 cents so what will it be after the distribution given that it is 62 cents on that day.

5{62}= 4x+15[5]
x=58.75.


So the sp for the remaining shares should lose about 3.25 cents.

[BFG]

Ok try AWE then. According to web site graph AWE was $1-80 when NZO was 78. AWE is now $139.5. On that same percentage ratio NZO would be 60.45.
My simple point is that all oil producers are suffering the crude drop,and mostly I see little value in blaming AK. AK or any of us are just not that important on the world stage.

A picture says a thousand words (and shows great investor sentiment of NZO).

6528

Anymore comparisons you'd like to make Digger?

I sincerely hope you get a chance to bail at a decent price. The story is only gettimg worse while so many red flags have been raised...

[digger]

[QUOTE=BFG;519820]A picture says a thousand words (and shows great investor sentiment of NZO).

6528

Anymore comparisons you'd like to make Digger? Quote


Just had a quick look at AWE and can not find a statement about their dividend policy.For a fair comparison can you post the results in this regard. Thanks.

[BFG]

just had a quick look at AWE and can not find a statement about their dividend policy.For a fair comparison can you post the results in this regard. Thanks.

Good point, AWE no div.

Has NZO paid out the spread difference between the share price of these two of 40% over those 2 years though? I suspect not.

In regards, NZO has stopped paying a div. The best comparison then would be from today onwards.

[sideline]

The change to dividend payments applies only 'near term' according to company announcements due to the current limited availability of imputation credits.
If the company wants to pay out 60m to shareholders and does it as 'dividend' the IRD would grab 20m as RWT - if it is done as 'return of capital' the
shareholders get every cent. The latter is clearly preferable and much better than paying 3c unimputed every half year!

[Balance]

The change to dividend payments applies only 'near term' according to company announcements due to the current limited availability of imputation credits.
If the company wants to pay out 60m to shareholders and does it as 'dividend' the IRD would grab 20m as RWT - if it is done as 'return of capital' the
shareholders get every cent. The latter is clearly preferable and much better than paying 3c unimputed every half year!

Does not really matter whether there is imputation credits or not if a company is profitable - the tax gets paid one way or the other.

Different if a company is sitting on tax losses. Then it makes sense for a company to use up the tax losses first.

[Casino]

Here Balance you have presented one of your better ideas for discussion. For many years I have been in favor of exploring and NZO sells itself as an explorer. After the TIN CAN fiasco I am dead against further exploring at least until we can sort out an agreement with the drillers who pays for there mistakes.

Alternatively, you could let overcapacity of drillers work for you and contract the best rigs at great rates when demand is low.



Buying existing production may be better in the hands of each shareholder than from NZO..

That's too simplistic because it neglects the possibility of synergistic effects.


NZO shows any interest in acquistions and it will simply drive up the price.

In this market?


Each individual can do that without having any effect on the SP. Also there is the small concern that NZO as a company was not set up to simply invest in other companies.
I am in favor of the company going ahead with the 1 for 5 cancellation and giving 15 cants for each share.

Me too but only because I see NZO as mispriced and an arbitrage waiting.


I can not see how AK has anything at all to do with the falling SP.How has he had any influence with world events. It has all to do with the war. Putin wants Ukraine and ISIS is to be deprived of income regardless of outcome. Also OPEC has for some time now said they are not going to be the swing producers and want to take on the US shale oil head on. Let the market decide. All this sure hurts me but war is war and all NZO holders are part of the meat in the sandwrich. The rest of the world oil producers all also hurting or are soon going to.Canada's oil sands will be in deep sh-t. On last account Putin will be losing 140 billion a year compared to $100 oil he was to balance his books on. And that was before last fall of $5.50 of the WTI. last night.
This collapse of the world crude has hurt all producers,and will end badly after a few years we will be short of oil again. Boom and bust is the cycle. Beyond that all I can say is buckle down and do not spend it unless you have to. I see world oil being down for a few years not months.

Completely agree with you on this one. This is structural and not temporary. But the oversupply won't last forever and there are some real bargains out there. I'm not ready to make that bet yet. Just keeping an eye on winter in the US and big oil starting to call the shots in Washington.

[Billy Boy]

Casino (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?12806-Casino)
Thank you for the above post, you say it all.
The big boys have got together that,s for sure.
The Arabs don't like ISIS, or at least those in power don't.
And they don't like what Putin is doing as it threatens their markets.
"big oil starting to call the shots in Washington." Not only Washington !!
BB
PS we havént heard much about North Sea Oil and where is fitting in.
Bet the Scotch are happen they stayed with England.

[dodgy]

Hi all

I believe very strongly in accountability - and this has been sadly lacking in this company and in fact NZ. Who disagrees except Digger? Although world events have a part - remember that the share price / returns have been steadily tanking over the last year despite extremely robust oil prices. And I do realise that the largest US oil company has retail and supply chains (Exon Mobil), and that the US economy is growing , as is NZ's - Share price in US$88.62 on 26/11/2012 and $94.48 26/11/2014 source Etrade USA and NZOG 87c on 26/11/2012 and 63c on 26/11/14. I suggest the management of Exon actually knows how to run a company well and is accountable to shareholders. I have followed and invested in this company (in hope of more Kupe and Tui as I suspect you have Digger), and to date have never really seen any decent management except for TR in the early days and Mathews the geologist - I think that was his name - correction? AK offered increased overheads by way of world class team of back office wallies with the implied success to follow. Well? We still have the overhead , just no results. Plenty of PR spin but no results. Increased capital but no results. Don't think that South East Asia will do it - such a minor share in the action. Only answer is vote against a capital return as I will and demand a further buy back as the share price sinks. Ideas?

[the machine]

nzo can't do anything about the oil price - before tui it was under $50 a barrel I think.
Capital return suits me fine since nzo have no requirement for the funds

M

[Balance]

nzo can't do anything about the oil price - before tui it was under $50 a barrel I think.
Capital return suits me fine since nzo have no requirement for the funds

M

With oil prices at current levels, sure as heck no point in exploring as cost is prohibitive in NZ.

So NZO will resume payment of dividend?

[digger]

With oil prices at current levels, sure as heck no point in exploring as cost is prohibitive in NZ.

So NZO will resume payment of dividend?

That is what happens world wide. Exploring will become prohibitive and the globe will be relying on what fuels are in the pipeline. Remember this tight oil depletes in about three years or less so drilling must never have a break or the system collapses. We also need to remember that at $60 or less we have peak oil,at $100 plus we have a glut.
There will be lots of CEO's sharpening their pencils on whether to drill or not in the near future,and enough will not go ahead to guarantee a shortage in the future.But I think it will take a year or two.

[Balance]

That is what happens world wide. Exploring will become prohibitive and the globe will be relying on what fuels are in the pipeline. Remember this tight oil depletes in about three years or less so drilling must never have a break or the system collapses. We also need to remember that at $60 or less we have peak oil,at $100 plus we have a glut.
There will be lots of CEO's sharpening their pencils on whether to drill or not in the near future,and enough will not go ahead to guarantee a shortage in the future.But I think it will take a year or two.

6 months, Digger and the world will see massive defaults by some of the leveraged oil players.

According to BBC, some 22% of junk bonds issued out there today are by oil companies.

At $60 per barrel which is where OPEC will drive the POO to in an effort to close down the shale oil producers, most of the shale oil producers are gone burger.

Which is why NZOG should be conserving its cash and buying some cheap assets soon.

[fabs]

Will relay have to wait where O/P & S/P end their present downhill run.
Would be interesting to get any idea on oil revenue before tax?
Seeing price has dropped 30% so far, as expenses stay the same so may not much leeway left there???
The present team has not significantly contributed to what was mainly due to TR and Eric Mathews. [Gross ineptitude springs to mind ]
Which where regardless of a lot of bad press mainly of the former, the architects of what 7 years ago was a dynamic and promising entity. Good oil flow & prices.
Hard to imagine that lot to be able to cope with what is going to unfold now that would save S/H wealth let alone significantly increase it.
Sharks gathering ?

[BFG]

Sub 60 cents now, will act from resistance from here on out (if it ever reaches this level again that is).

Still some buyers left for those that want to flee (and I wouldn't blame you either!)

[Billy Boy]

6 months, Digger and the world will see massive defaults by some of the leveraged oil players.

According to BBC, some 22% of junk bonds issued out there today are by oil companies.

At $60 per barrel which is where OPEC will drive the POO to in an effort to close down the shale oil producers, most of the shale oil producers are gone burger.

Which is why NZOG should be conserving its cash and buying some cheap assets soon.
Hey Balance....
That,s the best post I have seen you do.... I'm impressed !!!
My informant's say mid 2015 should see carnage
cheers BB:)

[fabs]

Can the co. realistically consider paying 75 cents each for 20% of cancelled shares?
Just wonder, any hopeful dreamers still left out there????
Or is this the moment of management finally coming out, revealing its true professional expertise??

[Balance]

Can the co. realistically consider paying 75 cents each for 20% of cancelled shares?
Just wonder, any hopeful dreamers still left out there????
Or is this the moment of management finally coming out, revealing its true professional expertise??

$130m in the bank so that's not an issue and NZO will continue to receive revenues from Kupe & Tui.

It's more a question of whether Duncan Saville & Zeta have the guts to make wholesale changes to NZOG's strategy and management.

Market is pissing itself in the pants over falling oil prices - in six months, it will reverse as OPEC will win in the end because as the BBC puts it, their cost of production averages out at US$25/barrel and most are sitting on huge financial reserves.

Some cheap assets to pick up soon for a company with cash.

[fabs]

Hope your right!!!!
Not so sure if Zeta cares much about other S/Hs. but again as above.
Lots of unexpected events possible next 6 Mts, in present times more so than ever.
TWT.

[digger]

$130m in the bank so that's not an issue and NZO will continue to receive revenues from Kupe & Tui.

It's more a question of whether Duncan Saville & Zeta have the guts to make wholesale changes to NZOG's strategy and management.

Market is pissing itself in the pants over falling oil prices - in six months, it will reverse as OPEC will win in the end because as the BBC puts it, their cost of production averages out at US$25/barrel and most are sitting on huge financial reserves.

Some cheap assets to pick up soon for a company with cash.

So what is the best path forward? There have been such big and certainly unexpected changes in the world since the first announcement of the capital return that the company should go back and look at the idea. At the time it seemed reasonable but things have changed soooo fast that if it were first discussed today it would almost certainly not be a 15 cent return and a 1 for 5 cancellation. I seem to be moving toward a smaller return and the same cancellation,or the 15 cents with a bigger cancellation. A 1 for 4 would bring it more in line with todays prices.
What do others think?

[Marilyn Munroe]

What do others think?

They could use the cash to pick up proven reserves cheaply. What Texas oilman T Boone Pickens refers to as "drilling for oil on Wall Street".

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Balance]

They could use the cash to pick up proven reserves cheaply. What Texas oilman T Boone Pickens refers to as "drilling for oil on Wall Street".

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Applause *****

Applause *****

Applause *****

[BFG]

They could use the cash to pick up proven reserves cheaply. What Texas oilman T Boone Pickens refers to as "drilling for oil on Wall Street".

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Exactly the right thing to do. And exactly what NZO WON'T do!

[fabs]

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=107709

No comment, it speaks for it self!
Yes the next 6 months could be very interesting.

[Balance]

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=107709

No comment, it speaks for it self!
Yes the next 6 months could be very interesting.

Article is interesting reading but alarmist to me and the linkage of oil collapse with the GFC is tenuous imo.

The GFC led to the price of oil collapsing as financial players pulled out of speculating on commodities? Copper etc all suffered the same fate. It's not the other way round.

Today it is supply exceeding demand by around 1m barrels a day vs total volume of 90m barrels a day. Will not take much to drive 1.5m barrels out of production with oil under $70/barrel.

As for junk bonds - it's US$1.5 trillion so if 20% = energy companies, then that's US$300b. Of that 50% may default? US$150b = bugger all in the overall scheme of things.

Buy OSH and Santos.

:D

[dodgy]

So what is the best path forward? There have been such big and certainly unexpected changes in the world since the first announcement of the capital return that the company should go back and look at the idea. At the time it seemed reasonable but things have changed soooo fast that if it were first discussed today it would almost certainly not be a 15 cent return and a 1 for 5 cancellation. I seem to be moving toward a smaller return and the same cancellation,or the 15 cents with a bigger cancellation. A 1 for 4 would bring it more in line with todays prices.
What do others think?

Hi Digger
Reading your post - I suspect that the court order interim allows only for the prescribed 75c/share so without a court revision this would have to be used. I still believe a on market buy back should be a marginally better "gamble", but if you follow Twr that are doing this, it generally only supports the share price around the time of the announcement . As for management shortcomings - I am at a loss with your holdings that you are not baying for blood - or did you buy super cheap in the old 32c days?

[digger]

Hi Digger
Reading your post - I suspect that the court order interim allows only for the prescribed 75c/share so without a court revision this would have to be used. I still believe a on market buy back should be a marginally better "gamble", but if you follow Twr that are doing this, it generally only supports the share price around the time of the announcement . As for management shortcomings - I am at a loss with your holdings that you are not baying for blood - or did you buy super cheap in the old 32c days?


I did buy way back then and beyond. I have received more in dividends than what I paid for my holding. After that I just let things run. By that I mean I do not blame the management if the well we all agreed together to drill comes up dry as it does all too often.
I suspect you are correct that the court order allowing the capital return is based on the 1 for 5 and now would take ages to change given that these people disappear for christmas and are not to be found again until half the new year is gone.
So I will vote for the capital return as I see it as a done deal. It will be up to each individual to decide if great deals present themselves.

[arjay]

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=107709

No comment, it speaks for it self!
Yes the next 6 months could be very interesting.

Can't see it myself. The US will decide what's best for the US economy: cheapest oil, or higher priced fracked oil with associated jobs and other benefits it brings. If the latter then the US can simply put pressure on the Saudi's by threatening to remove their guarantee for the house of Saud staying in charge of the country. Saudi in political turmoil would be good for higher prices, and the risk that Saudi might become a democracy may also be unpallatable for the Saudi's-in-charge.

[digger]

Can't see it myself. The US will decide what's best for the US economy: cheapest oil, or higher priced fracked oil with associated jobs and other benefits it brings. If the latter then the US can simply put pressure on the Saudi's by threatening to remove their guarantee for the house of Saud staying in charge of the country. Saudi in political turmoil would be good for higher prices, and the risk that Saudi might become a democracy may also be unpallatable for the Saudi's-in-charge.

Yes that is one outcome ,but IMHO it will not go that way because it is not about the Saudi Arabia but about Russia. If it were just about removing about 1.5 million barrels a day the US could simple state they were taking the opportunity to double the strategic reserves which in itself is a very good idea. In this case they would be removing tight oil and placing it in a well for easy future removal. This to me makes since as the infrastructure is now set up to capture the tight oil. Or they could pay drillers to withdraw from drilling,much as the US paid farmers to not produce during the food surplus of the eighties. But none of that is happening because it is about Russia.
Trying to get Russia this way will not work. There was a very good piece on KITCO yesterday about way Russia can not be brought to heel in this regard. The US always fail to understand that all other non Americans are not like themselves and are proud of it. The US assumes that if the US would not like such and such other peoples would think the same way.
This piece deals with the Russian somewhat love for putting up with hard times and showing the fortitude to do so. They proudly enjoy a siege mentality.Stalingrad is in their DNA.
This is way I say oil will stay low for about two years. Not because the Russians will give in then but that the west will see the that the damage we are doing to the world trade is not affecting the Russians very much. We are hitting the Russians where they are the strongest. The west will blink first.

[BFG]

Russia going into recession: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/12/03/368143679/sanctions-and-low-oil-prices-push-russias-economy-toward-recession

Ruble has nearly halved in price since February's invasion of Ukraine:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Currency&symb=Usdrub&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=12%2F3%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&x=37&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

Suggest you talk to a real Russian about what is happening over there. People are not happy and not willing to forever suffer under Putin, especially the nouveau rich and after having a good taste of free market capitalism. This is not the Soviet system and it is not the days of Stalin digger...

[dodgy]

Russia going into recession: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/12/03/368143679/sanctions-and-low-oil-prices-push-russias-economy-toward-recession

Ruble has nearly halved in price since February's invasion of Ukraine:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Currency&symb=Usdrub&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=12%2F3%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&x=37&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

Suggest you talk to a real Russian about what is happening over there. People are not happy and not willing to forever suffer under Putin, especially the nouveau rich and after having a good taste of free market capitalism. This is not the Soviet system and it is not the days of Stalin digger...

I agree with you BFG but I doubt if the people have the gonads to get rid of Putin - a bit like NZOG management really.

[boysy]

Good post digger tho I think your Reference re siege mentality should be to Leningrad that was. A 872 day siege

[Balance]

Russia going into recession: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/12/03/368143679/sanctions-and-low-oil-prices-push-russias-economy-toward-recession

Ruble has nearly halved in price since February's invasion of Ukraine:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Currency&symb=Usdrub&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=12%2F3%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&x=37&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

Suggest you talk to a real Russian about what is happening over there. People are not happy and not willing to forever suffer under Putin, especially the nouveau rich and after having a good taste of free market capitalism. This is not the Soviet system and it is not the days of Stalin digger...

Agree with you, BFG but Digger has a point too (horror - did I just write that?).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-02/putin-oil-and-ruble-all-headed-for-63-may-be-no-russian-joke.html

The Russians are used to hardships and used to dictators - it's in their DNA.

The point of the West's sanctions against Russia though is NOT to destroy Russia but to punish and isolate Russia and deter Putin from any more adventures outside of its borders.

We know the sanctions are working because Russia's bluff to cut back on energy exports to the West has been called - and Russia has had no choice but to keep pumping as its economic growth (note growth, not economy) is totally dependent on energy exports. That's why the supply of oil from Russia has not been reduced - Russia simply cannot afford to.

My view is that it is a 6 months' scenario for oil price to stabilise at around current levels - US economy is growing and it is a juggernaut when it starts growing. It will pull the rest of the world up the growth path.

[digger]

Good post digger tho I think your Reference re siege mentality should be to Leningrad that was. A 872 day siege

Stalingrad and Leningrad are the same city. When under siege during WW2 it was Stalingrad,but post Stalin it got renamed back to Leningrad. That happened somewhere about 1960 but have not Googled it to find exact date.

[J R Ewing]

Stalingrad and Leningrad are the same city. When under siege during WW2 it was Stalingrad,but post Stalin it got renamed back to Leningrad. That happened somewhere about 1960 but have not Googled it to find exact date.

Stalingrad is about a 1000 miles from Leningrad!

[Clarus]

Good post digger tho I think your Reference re siege mentality should be to Leningrad that was. A 872 day siege

St Petersburg was previously Leningrad? S/grad and L/grad are different cities.

[fabs]

Stalingrad and Leningrad are the same city. When under siege during WW2 it was Stalingrad,but post Stalin it got renamed back to Leningrad. That happened somewhere about 1960 but have not Googled it to find exact date.

From school-days mem.
St Petersburg =Leningrad = St Petersburg
Volgagrade= Stalingrad=Volgagrade.
Miles apart
China will step in & take Russia's oil any time, this will drive them and Iran closer together. Huge pipeline system under way already, planed long before Ukraine conflict.
Yes the 2-4% western [ US ] friendly rabid materialistic section of the population we hear about in the western media 95% of the time, lends itself more than just a bit to wild Distortions.Talk to diverse average Russkies it may surprise you.

Declaration: Neither communist,socialist.Russian connections or ancestry.
Just starting to get sick of US Hegemony and slaughter on ridiculous pretenses.

Anyway lets get back to NZO.on this Forum

[BFG]

Stalingrad and Leningrad are the same city. When under siege during WW2 it was Stalingrad,but post Stalin it got renamed back to Leningrad. That happened somewhere about 1960 but have not Googled it to find exact date.

Oh Digger...

Leningrad is the old St Petersburg, renamed after the October Revolution of 1917 to honour the Communist leader, Lenin. It reverted back to St Petersburg post 1989. It is less than 1000 miles from Moscow on the Baltic Coast. During WWII it endured a 872 day siege after the German invasion, from 1941 to 1944. More died from starvation than bullets or bombs as Stalin refused to evacuate the city based upon its name and saw it as a symbolic stand against Nazism .

Stalingrad was Volograd pre 1920s as it lies along the Volga river in Southern Russia, many thousands of miles from Moscow. It was renamed Stalingrad as Stalin was a local commissar during the retaking of the city from the White Russian armies. Home to a large number of tractor factories, rail links and chemical plants, it was a key target for the German Southern Army during Operation Blau (Blue) in the Summer/Autumn of 1942. As with Leningrad, Stalin refused to give up the city as per its namesake. This marked the high tide of the German advance into Russia and an entire Germany Army (Sixth, led by Paulus) ws surrounded and annhilated there. It was the site of the bloodiest battle in history in terms of casualties.

There's your geography/history lesson for the day. If you'd like to know more, PM me. I could literally go on for hours :)

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes we've noticed.:)

Oh Digger.... I could literally go on for hours :)

[Balance]

Just starting to get sick of US Hegemony and slaughter on ridiculous pretenses.

Anyway lets get back to NZO.on this Forum

The stinking bloody and horrendous mess US has left behind in Iraq, in the name of 'liberating' the Iraqis but we now know only too well, is really a grab for cheap oil and territory in the Middle East, is an indictment not only on the US but its allies like UK and Australia as well. Saddam was a dictator and evil - he gave the vast majority of Iraqis however a measure of unity and peace however. The US went in, dismantled the police and army and proceeded to award oil related contracts to its mates and friends. Then, conveniently left when it all got too hard.

Anyway, I see NZOG has decided to push ahead with the 15c capital repayment so the die is cast. Pity because I think there could be some really nice assets for NZOG to buy in the near future.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZO/announcements/258502

Looks like Digger-me-ole-mate missed out on his 65c NZOG shares. Probably confused 56c with 65c, and was waiting at 56c? Just like Stalingrad with Leningrad?

Sorry, could not resist that one. :D

[Banksie]

I am struggling to understand what they are proposing with their capital return. Is it basically a share buyback, except they will be buying from each shareholder instead of just those that want to sell?

[RTM]

I am struggling to understand what they are proposing with their capital return. Is it basically a share buyback, except they will be buying from each shareholder instead of just those that want to sell?

Seems to me that they are reducing the number of shares by more or less the amount they are returning to us.
So this should leave the SP relatively unaffected, as the asset backing for per share will be the same.

From the document...

"Based on the 30 June 2014 Financial Statements, the
Net Asset Value per Share will change from NZ$0.8123 to
NZ$0.8279."

Its not we have seen tho is it, with the share price dropping by ~15cents after they announced it.

Cheers
RTM
Disc: Have held and endured Balances' comments since inception. My oldest stock.

[digger]

Well thanks all for the geography lesson which was badly needed.. Never mind I am blaming the wife as she thought they were the same city. On to the next problem.

[tim23]

RTM - after they announced the buy back price actually firmed to 80c its the oil price that's driven the stock lower in my opinion.

[Balance]

Seems to me that they are reducing the number of shares by more or less the amount they are returning to us.
So this should leave the SP relatively unaffected, as the asset backing for per share will be the same.

From the document...

"Based on the 30 June 2014 Financial Statements, the
Net Asset Value per Share will change from NZ$0.8123 to
NZ$0.8279."

Its not we have seen tho is it, with the share price dropping by ~15cents after they announced it.

Cheers
RTM
Disc: Have held and endured Balances' comments since inception. My oldest stock.

Holy Mackerel - reminds me of one of the Brierley Investments shareholders who proudly proclaimed at one of BIL's last AGMs in NZ that he has only ever bought BIL shares from day 1, never sold!

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZO/announcements/258530

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZO/announcements/258473

Oh wow, an executive actually bought shares on market!

And an ex director too!

Around $12,000 worth each ! :D

Things must be looking up!

[Balance]

Well thanks all for the geography lesson which was badly needed.. Never mind I am blaming the wife as she thought they were the same city. On to the next problem.

Good one, Digger :D

Hope Mrs Digger appreciates your sense of humor!

[RTM]

Holy Mackerel - reminds me of one of the Brierley Investments shareholders who proudly proclaimed at one of BIL's last AGMs in NZ that he has only ever bought BIL shares from day 1, never sold!

Yes...I thought that would amuse you. And yes....I have some GLL still as well. Just to remind me how careful I need to be. Still...they have done better than the Equiticorp, Chase, Waikato Stud that I had at one stage. Oh dear...showing my age.

Night all
RTM.

[digger]

Yes...I thought that would amuse you. And yes....I have some GLL still as well. Just to remind me how careful I need to be. Still...they have done better than the Equiticorp, Chase, Waikato Stud that I had at one stage. Oh dear...showing my age.

Night all
RTM.

What sort of talk is that. ----showing your age. I used to own some of those shares to and I was not young then either.

So I wonder if the voting is on the 19th when the payout is. Will it be this year?
Oh I forgot--it has to pass first.

[Balance]

What sort of talk is that. ----showing your age. I used to own some of those shares to and I was not young then either.

So I wonder if the voting is on the 19th when the payout is. Will it be this year?
Oh I forgot--it has to pass first.

9 January 2015 when you receive the 15c per share in your hot hands, and shout all the other Noggers to a glass of champagne to the dawn of a new era in NZOG. An era where directors and management have to account for $$$ spent (no more first class travel to far flung places in search of adventures and shopping on the way in Paris and London). I hope to see a donation by NZOG to the families of Pike River miners as well - say, an education fund for the children. Afterall, NZOG is returning $60m to shareholders.

[dodgy]

9 January 2015 when you receive the 15c per share in your hot hands, and shout all the other Noggers to a glass of champagne to the dawn of a new era in NZOG. An era where directors and management have to account for $$$ spent (no more first class travel to far flung places in search of adventures and shopping on the way in Paris and London). I hope to see a donation by NZOG to the families of Pike River miners as well - say, an education fund for the children. Afterall, NZOG is returning $60m to shareholders.

Yeah right!
Pigs, troughs and overheads come to mind. NOTHING will change - $1.50 in about $0.75 back - great investment within such a short time frame.
-d

[digger]

Yeah right!
Pigs, troughs and overheads come to mind. NOTHING will change - $1.50 in about $0.75 back - great investment within such a short time frame.
-d


Now lets come back to reality. The 15 cents per share is for all shares. The $1-50 the shareholders bought was only on a very few shares and more importantly shareholder did not have to take part. I did but it was my choice at the time but that was on so few of the total it did not lift the average that much. I hope none of you holders only ever bought at $1-50 with none way back in the ages gone by when they ranged from 20 cents to 45 cents where the vast bulk of my shares were bought.

[RTM]

RTM - after they announced the buy back price actually firmed to 80c its the oil price that's driven the stock lower in my opinion.

Yes....hopefully you are correct Tim. Not sure whether I like the oil price down to make it easier to put petrol in the car....or higher to support the share price.

[JohnPagani]

Hello Sharetraders,


It's been a while since we chatted so with the upcoming special meeting to consider the proposed capital return I would like to invite you to join New Zealand Oil & Gas ceo Andrew Knight for an online chat in here, on Sharetrader, next Wednesday afternoon 10 December at 2.30PM. He will answer your questions and respond to any comments.


There is a lot of information posted at nzog.today (http://www.nzog.today) and Andrew is happy to field your queries.


Please post your questions here or email them to me in advance at john.pagani@nzog.com - We will also post replies in real time.


Andrew will be online for about half an hour.


Please join us here in this Sharetrader thread,
2.30PM Wednesday, 10 December 2014.


And please make sure you take the opportunity to cast your vote.

John Pagani
New Zealand Oil & Gas

[BFG]

Baaaallllaaaannnncccceee, your mother is calling you!

[Balance]

Baaaallllaaaannnncccceee, your mother is calling you!

:D

:D

:D

Think I should buy a few shares and participate in the conference call?

[Xerof]

don't waste your money, you are allowed to ask questions Balance - it's an online discussion here on ST, so get typing :closed eyes::closed eyes:

[Casino]

Hello Sharetraders,


...


There is a lot of information posted at nzog.today (http://www.nzog.today) and Andrew is happy to field your queries.


Please post your questions here or email them to me in advance at john.pagani@nzog.com - We will also post replies in real time.


Andrew will be online for about half an hour.


Please join us here in this Sharetrader thread,
2.30PM Wednesday, 10 December 2014.


And please make sure you take the opportunity to cast your vote.

John Pagani
New Zealand Oil & Gas

I would like to take you up on your kind offer:

1. How low does crude have to fall before NZOG ceases to be cash-flow positive?
2. How long do you expect the current price war to last?
3. Did your geoscientist complete their analysis following the Matuku drills and arrive at a conclusion in regards to the source of the Tui/Maui/Maari fields?

Thanks for your attention!

[Bella52]

9 January 2015 when you receive the 15c per share in your hot hands, and shout all the other Noggers to a glass of champagne to the dawn of a new era in NZOG. An era where directors and management have to account for $$$ spent (no more first class travel to far flung places in search of adventures and shopping on the way in Paris and London). I hope to see a donation by NZOG to the families of Pike River miners as well - say, an education fund for the children. Afterall, NZOG is returning $60m to shareholders.
they've given a donation remember $25m to trust and other things after the explosion

[Bella52]

Balance - you turn up to the AGM briefings without shares, don't see why you'd be shy about being online

I'll be there, but not sure if I can type fast enough to get the questions in.

[digger]

9 January 2015 when you receive the 15c per share in your hot hands, and shout all the other Noggers to a glass of champagne to the dawn of a new era in NZOG. An era where directors and management have to account for $$$ spent (no more first class travel to far flung places in search of adventures and shopping on the way in Paris and London). I hope to see a donation by NZOG to the families of Pike River miners as well - say, an education fund for the children. Afterall, NZOG is returning $60m to shareholders.


Now now Balance my old mate ,you and I are not suppose to make comments about PIKE on this NZO thread. I had just finished typing you some curly remarks when I remembered we are not to be chatting about PIKE here and deleted it. Shame as I am sure if you had read them it would have been another bucket of water thrown at a duck on a hot day.

[pietrade]

[QUOTE ..............another bucket of water thrown at a duck on a hot day........[/QUOTE]

Well put Digger. Although trying to talk reason to the un-Balanced is like feeding a crocodile - or trying to pour some sense into a bottomless, one-eyed pit of endlessly repeated accusations. Oh well.........

[fabs]

No point in voting on the C/R Issue, Result a foregone conclusion.
No point asking any questions either:
As action of a bunch of second rate accountants tacit admission, of having no clues what to do with the monies available to grow this co.

[digger]

No point in voting on the C/R Issue, Result a foregone conclusion.
No point asking any questions either:
As action of a bunch of second rate accountants tacit admission, of having no clues what to do with the monies available to grow this co.

I am not sure you are correct. Have only read it quickly but to suit the court it appears that the CR has to pass on several fronts. It is not just two or three big holders getting it over 50% line and that is it. Does it not also to fill court requirements need the support of a majority of shareholder,regardless of holding size.
Well for a start that can be a good question for AK.

[BIRMANBOY]

Referring to Notice of Special meeting booklet just mailed out.....On page 7 item #2 it says that net financial effect of the scheme will be to reduce Equity and net assets by 63 million. Then goes on to say 'based on June 2014 financials NAV will change from 0.8123 to 0.8279..? What am I missing here? Also
Ok I can buy a share "worth" .75 (regards cap return/cancellation) for .65/ .66/ .67 on market....now common sense tells me that if this is the reality then the SP would not be .65. Underlying concern is what is post share cancellation going to do to SP. Seems holders are assuming that the price at .65 is a fools errand ..or something else at play? What are other holders thinking about this?

[bunter]

1) Capital is reduced but number of shares on issue is too. That's why NAV after capital return goes up.

2) The theoretical ex price after the capital return is current price- (75 - current price)/4

So current price 65c means theoretical ex price of 62.5c

The market is saying the *real* value of NZO, after the capital return, is 62.5c

I think that's all correct.

BTW if the share price were to fall to 15c, the theoretical ex price would be zero cents.

[BIRMANBOY]

Ok... thanks re point one..forgot about the reduced number of shares. Re point 2..I can see that .625 value ..I guess I am wondering (trying to figure out) whether SP is going to further reduce after the return, in which case throwing more money into shares at 65c now is kind of pointless...better to pick up when and if it bottoms out. Obviously unknown outcome and just because NAV is .82 odd doesn't mean the SP will reflect that (it doesn't now)...too many variable and options for my feeble brain to comprehend...which usually means I will sit on my hands. Much simpler when they just pumped out the dividends.:(
1) Capital is reduced but number of shares on issue is too. That's why NAV after capital return goes up.

2) The theoretical ex price after the capital return is current price- (75 - current price)/4

So current price 65c means theoretical ex price of 62.5c

The market is saying the *real* value of NZO, after the capital return, is 62.5c

I think that's all correct.

BTW if the share price were to fall to 15c, the theoretical ex price would be zero cents.

[notie]

This capital return shows that nzog has completely run out of ideas and some interests on the board have decided it is a good time to get some cash out using this mechanism.

Meanwhile has the company committed to drilling Kaheru next year, or is that going to fall by the way side? They really are floundering about, as they have been for the last 6 years

[digger]

This capital return shows that nzog has completely run out of ideas and some interests on the board have decided it is a good time to get some cash out using this mechanism.

Meanwhile has the company committed to drilling Kaheru next year, or is that going to fall by the way side? They really are floundering about, as they have been for the last 6 years


I intend to ask a question very similar to this one. We now have to relook at the value of drilling given the lower income from crude. Everything now changes. Maybe we do not need as many directors. Another good question.

[arjay]

This capital return shows that nzog has completely run out of ideas and some interests on the board have decided it is a good time to get some cash out using this mechanism.

Meanwhile has the company committed to drilling Kaheru next year, or is that going to fall by the way side? They really are floundering about, as they have been for the last 6 years

Good question - NZOG have talked up many prospects to have them quietly drop by the wayside. I woud love to know what Tunisia was all about.

[Beagle]

Good question - NZOG have talked up many prospects to have them quietly drop by the wayside. I woud love to know what Tunisia was all about.

First class travel, six star hotels, Michelin star restaurants and just having a really fabulous time with shareholders money.

[tim23]

Gee notie pops up but where has balance gone - would make a great team hit duo?

[Balance]

Gee notie pops up but where has balance gone - would make a great team hit duo?

Here as always, tim23 - touching you miss yours in balance here! :D

I have made what I believe are pertinent observations about NZOG as it is today and what it should be doing going forward.

I consider I have won my battle with the Noggers who were kept on the hook by NZOG with the promise of the BIG oil find around the corner. What they perhaps did not appreciate is that oil finds are not by accident or chance but by progressive, switched on and world class experienced management. The $$$ NZOG has spent over the years on misadventures would have been better spent on consultants from the oil industry who are well sought after by even the majors.

Case in point is a friend of mine who operates from Canada - he decided to retire 2 years ago but has not been able to play golf as much as he wishes as the majors keep paying him big bucks to contract work. Why? Track record of knowing how to assess oil prospects and drill in the right places.

Contrary to what most Noggers think, I do access good information about best practices in the oil industry - and NZOG ain't good practice!

The capital repayment is fine if indeed it is true that NZOG will continue to receive significant cash in from Tui and Kupe over future years, so is in a position to continue to invest when necessary.

The most pressing question for most Noggers I would have thought is 'when does the company on current projections resume the payment of dividends'? Over the years, I sense a lot of Noggers bought and hung onto their NZOG shares due to the dividends.

[Bella52]

This capital return shows that nzog has completely run out of ideas and some interests on the board have decided it is a good time to get some cash out using this mechanism.

Meanwhile has the company committed to drilling Kaheru next year, or is that going to fall by the way side? They really are floundering about, as they have been for the last 6 years

notie - you always were just a big fan of Radford!

[JohnPagani]

Morning Sharetraders.

Just a reminder to join us here at 2.30 today, Wednesday the 10th (NZT) for an onine chat with Andrew Knight, CEO of New Zealand Oil & Gas to discuss the proposed capital return.

Post your questions in this thread or email them to me in advance at john.pagani@nzog.com.

[bunter]

Questions for NZOG.

1) Exploration spend
NZOG's exploration spend for the past three financial years has been 9.5m, 42m and 75m.

How much does NZOG expect to spend on exploration for the years ending 30/6/15 and 30/6/16?

2) Income
Oil and gas sales revenue was $104m in the year ending 30/6/14.
If oil prices continue at $US60-70 per barrel, how much oil and gas revenue roughly should NZOG make in the years ending 30/6/15 and 30/6/16?

3) Capital return
Does NZOG have any thoughts of making another capital return in the next year or so?

4) Just an observation and a suggestion - two of the most positive developments for NZOG in the past year, in my opinion, have required no exploration spend - increasing the stake in Tui, and the proposed capital return.
Suggest doing more of that sort of thing.

[Sideshow Bob]

Not sure if already asked:

Are NZO looking at any further acquisition of producing assets, rather than exploration.

Thanks
SSB

[digger]

Given the new normal oil price will be about $60 [or we should expect it about there] what management changes will this impose on NZO.

There are different rules with exploration and production when NZ is compared with Indonesia. Indonesia seems to have more oil and on land so how do you compare likely profits for NZO between these two countries.

[JohnPagani]

Good afternoon sharetraders. Andrew Knight is here with me, and posting answers to your questions for the next half an hour.

[JohnPagani]

Casino (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?12806-Casino) Asked


1. How low does crude have to fall before NZOG ceases to be cash-flow positive?
2. How long do you expect the current price war to last?
3. Did your geoscientist complete their analysis following the Matuku drills and arrive at a conclusion in regards to the source of the Tui/Maui/Maari fields?


Casino



It’s not just the price of crude. Currency and production also factors. We are increasing production significantly at Tui and the currency has fallen as well.
18 month to 2 years
Yes, our view is that the likely charge is from the SE of Maui. But with a lack of Taranaki data it remains the best hypothesis.

[JohnPagani]

Questions for NZOG.

1) Exploration spend
NZOG's exploration spend for the past three financial years has been 9.5m, 42m and 75m.

How much does NZOG expect to spend on exploration for the years ending 30/6/15 and 30/6/16?

2) Income
Oil and gas sales revenue was $104m in the year ending 30/6/14.
If oil prices continue at $US60-70 per barrel, how much oil and gas revenue roughly should NZOG make in the years ending 30/6/15 and 30/6/16?

3) Capital return
Does NZOG have any thoughts of making another capital return in the next year or so?

4) Just an observation and a suggestion - two of the most positive developments for NZOG in the past year, in my opinion, have required no exploration spend - increasing the stake in Tui, and the proposed capital return.
Suggest doing more of that sort of thing.

Bunter


We don’t disclose exact numbers because of restrictions in the various JV agreements but, with Kaheru being pushed outside this current financial year, the only significant program for FY 2015 is the seismic collection in Vulcan and Toroa. FY 2016 the only significant planned commitment is the Kaheru well, with a possible well in Bohorok. Safe to say we expect to be well below the US$35 cap we set ourselves.
Once again we don’t provide forecasts. The timing of Pateke 4H is the question and whilst AWE are working on it the timing will be partly weather driven, all things going well it should be on before mid 2015 and we may even be able to get a shipment or two out. For the next couple of years we receive an uplift from Pateke and the exchange rate reducing.
No, we believe the $60m capital return is about right given our capital requirements and additional Pateke cashflow.
And Kisaran, increasing sales and value from Kupe, settling the royalty arrangements. Yes acquiring reserves looks cheaper than exploring at the moment and that’s why we signalled that shift in Peter’s speech at the AGM

[JohnPagani]

Given the new normal oil price will be about $60 [or we should expect it about there] what management changes will this impose on NZO.

There are different rules with exploration and production when NZ is compared with Indonesia. Indonesia seems to have more oil and on land so how do you compare likely profits for NZO between these two countries.

digger - we are working through exploration and spend and as indicated at the AGM we expect the exploration spend to be a bit lower than previously. We are still working hard on the other opportunities at Kupe to focus on ensuring the value is maximised

re indo - profit model is different so the fall in oil price doesn't impact as much on the project returns.

[JohnPagani]

Not sure if already asked:

Are NZO looking at any further acquisition of producing assets, rather than exploration.

Thanks
SSB


yes we are and as indicated at the AGm are likely to put more emphasis on this than exploration for the next period

[RTM]

Bunter


No, we believe the $60m capital return is about right given our capital requirements and additional Pateke cashflow.

[/LIST]

So will dividends be resumed in 2015 ?

[dodgy]

Question for Mr. Knight
Why embark on a capital return which alienates many shareholders - particularly those holding over @ 75c - when an on market purchase as and when the share price tracks down would be tax neutral ? and very few shareholders would be compromised - just the opposite ! Enhancing the companies longer term sharevalue. Thanks.

[JohnPagani]

Question for Mr. Knight
Why embark on a capital return which alienates many shareholders - particularly those holding over @ 75c - when an on market purchase as and when the share price tracks down would be tax neutral ? and very few shareholders would be compromised - just the opposite ! Enhancing the companies longer term sharevalue. Thanks.

hi, we have looked at and are continuing to consider an onmarket buyback, the issue is being able to buy enough shares as we found last time we did it we were only able to acquire a few million shares and fell well short of the targeted $10m

[JohnPagani]

Neil asked




1. Since the announcement of capital return the oil price has fallen sharply. This could give NZOG a good buying opportunity to initiate the strategy of investing and spreading its risk into other oil and gas assets. (Tap Oil on the ASX comes to mind). Is it appropriate for the company to have a capital return in this current environment if the company is to pursue this de-risking investment strategy?
2. What expertise does NZOG have in pursuing an investment strategy? I noted years back when funds started to come in from the Tui oil field that the company made a statement to the effect didn’t want to risk shareholders’ funds and would be careful in what it invested its funds in. What has been proven since has been the opposite with loss of shareholder value. How will this situation be remedied?






1. Yes, the company announced at the Annual Meeting that we are seeking to buy producing assets, which we see as undervalued in the current market conditions. We think the balance sheet will be strong enough after the capital return to fund an acquisition at the scale we would look at.


2. The best investment we can make is in exploration and producing assets. That is where our core expertise lies. Exploration is a risk business. The average success rate in New Zealand, across all companies, is 1 in 9. So the period since 2007 has been on trend with that average - noting we had exploration success in Pateke this year and Kisaran, Indonesia last year.

[JohnPagani]

So will dividends be resumed in 2015 ?

The dividend is a board decision but peter did indicate that with available imputations the Board would consider paying a dividend again. depending on the Pateke timing and currency as the main factors, reducing exploration may put us into a tax paying position earlier than previously thought. it will remain uncertain i9n the short term (next few months) but should be clearer after that.

[JohnPagani]

Not sure if already asked:

Are NZO looking at any further acquisition of producing assets, rather than exploration.

Thanks
SSB

yes, looks sensible in the current market

[JohnPagani]

Todd asks

1. What is the thinking behind the announcement for future dividends? It appears that this has been one of the factors in the recent share price drop.
2. Is Andrew able to give any more information on the possible reserves in Indonesia? It is really hard to try to get my head around how significant this discovery could be.



1. The share price is driven by many factors, including the global oil price. One factor was that we exited the MSCI small cap index, which led to computer driven sell offs by index tracking funds.


Dividends have been suspended because we are not in a tax paying position. When we are able to provide imputation credits the board has signalled it intends to restore dividend payments.


2. The most recent quarterly report disclosed everything we are able to. The numbers around Kisaran will be released when the plan of development is completed and a final investment decision is made. The plan of development process is about us and the government collectively understanding the economics of the discovery and the development. Kisaran will be a two-stage process - in the first one, drilling a handful of wells to test flow rates and the economic model. If that is successful the development could be a succession of wells over five to ten years that would be self-funding.

[RTM]

The dividend is a board decision but peter did indicate that with available imputations the Board would consider paying a dividend again. depending on the Pateke timing and currency as the main factors, reducing exploration may put us into a tax paying position earlier than previously thought. it will remain uncertain i9n the short term (next few months) but should be clearer after that.

Thanks.
Personally I think this is a really key point. For me anyway. I need the dividend return...otherwise why would I want to own NZO ? Especially if the exploration prog. is reduced.

[Casino]

Do you expect (ultra) deep sea exploration to continue around NZ and how will this affect NZOG over the coming years?

[JohnPagani]

Thanks.
Personally I think this is a really key point. For me anyway. I need the dividend return...otherwise why would I want to own NZO ? Especially if the exploration prog. is reduced.

yes, I understand this. we get very mixed and strong views on the value or not of the imputed dividend, we are always seeking to Balance a declining production base and the dividend flow with investing for future dividends, arguably we underinvested in the mid 2000's and are now trying to catch up.

[JohnPagani]

Do you expect (ultra) deep sea exploration to continue around NZ and how will this affect NZOG over the coming years?

yes it's very exciting for NZ, we'd like to do more of it but the $$ are big and the exploration is frontier. we could just become a deepwater player in NZ but it would be a hero or Zero strategy.

we like our involvement with Woodside who are a good partner and bring a good set of values to understanding and engaging with the community. we think this is crucial as deepwater is unknown in NZ and communities are wary.

[JohnPagani]

Thanks for the questions. I think I need to learn to type a bit quicker!!

remember to vote in the Capital return, it's important you have your say.

many thanks

Andrew

[Casino]

Thanks for the replies!

[Snow Leopard]

So the Zeta/Utilico/Bermuda Commercial Bank/ICM cabal have not only moved some shares around and but also snuck another 1,448,141 shares under their belt.
Another 541,444 to go to 20%.

Also:

yes, I understand this. we get very mixed and strong views on the value or not of the imputed dividend, we are always seeking to Balance a declining production base and the dividend flow with investing for future dividends, arguably we underinvested in the mid 2000's and are now trying to catch up.
:t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Casino]

Also:

:t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I noticed that too :D:D:D:D



...arguably we underinvested in the mid 2000's and are now trying to catch up.

I don't understand why capital dividend or dividend are the only choices, when both may be beyond their means and it's acknowledged that long-term security was neglected?

[Mr Tommy]

I wonder how this will affect KUPE long term, is there going to be a glut of gas on the market?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11372220

[pietrade]

T..............

remember to vote in the Capital return, it's important you have your say. many thanks Andrew

As I understand it, for the capital return to take pace, 50% of actual registered shareholders need to vote, and of them, 75% need to be in favour.

So every SHAREHOLDER vote is important regardless of the number of share held.

On your marks. Get set. Go ---------->>

[the machine]

very easy to vote on line - once you receive the mail.
I have voted yes for 1 of my holdings that was in Fridays mail - hopefully next mail will have the other holding so I can vote before 17th

M

[fabs]

We Just Witnessed The Worst Week For Global Financial Markets In 3 Years.
Checking out above may give the reasons for S/Ps dropping.
Worth considering what may will happen after the C/R exercise is concluded???

[777]

So, did the vote to fail?

NZO
17/12/2014 16:49
BUYBACK
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1649 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

BUYBACK: NZO: Share Buy Back And Update On Scheme Of Arrangement

New Zealand Oil & Gas intends to put in place arrangements allowing it to buy
back its shares. It will ask shareholders for approval to exempt its major
shareholder from having to sell down its holding if the share buy-back goes
ahead.

[BigBob]

So, did the vote to fail?

NZO
17/12/2014 16:49
BUYBACK
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1649 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

BUYBACK: NZO: Share Buy Back And Update On Scheme Of Arrangement

New Zealand Oil & Gas intends to put in place arrangements allowing it to buy
back its shares. It will ask shareholders for approval to exempt its major
shareholder from having to sell down its holding if the share buy-back goes
ahead.

No, the meeting is on Friday. The way I read this is that they are also planning to buy back shares and when they do and cancel them, Zeta will creep above 20% which they are not supposed to without a takeover offer, and NZO are asking shareholders too exempt Zeta from staying below 20%.

[777]

No, the meeting is on Friday. The way I read this is that they are also planning to buy back shares and when they do and cancel them, Zeta will creep above 20% which they are not supposed to without a takeover offer, and NZO are asking shareholders too exempt Zeta from staying below 20%.

Thanks. Interesting looking at Pagani's reply in post 14802.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5112-NZ-Oil-amp-Gas-(NZO)&p=521795&viewfull=1#post521795

[dodgy]

Thanks. Interesting looking at Pagani's reply in post 14802.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5112-NZ-Oil-amp-Gas-(NZO)&p=521795&viewfull=1#post521795

Its called "having a bob each way" and appears to me to be a management floundering to show leadership whilst committed to a very low level of forward exploration and still insisting to maintain a high management overhead. Why should any company change the shareholding rules to suit the biggest shareholder - democracy?
See press release yesterday
"


This proposal is distinct from the return of capital that will be voted on by



New Zealand Oil & Gas shareholders at a Special General Meeting on Friday.


When the deadline passed this morning for online and postal voting, and for


appointing a proxy for the meeting, voting and proxy voting instructions


indicated the resolution would be passed. Subsequent to Friday's meeting the


capital return will still require a binding ruling on its tax effect, and


final court approval.





John Pagani "

[Bella52]

Its called "having a bob each way" and appears to me to be a management floundering to show leadership whilst committed to a very low level of forward exploration and still insisting to maintain a high management overhead. Why should any company change the shareholding rules to suit the biggest shareholder - democracy?
See press release yesterday
"


This proposal is distinct from the return of capital that will be voted on by



New Zealand Oil & Gas shareholders at a Special General Meeting on Friday.


When the deadline passed this morning for online and postal voting, and for


appointing a proxy for the meeting, voting and proxy voting instructions


indicated the resolution would be passed. Subsequent to Friday's meeting the


capital return will still require a binding ruling on its tax effect, and


final court approval.





John Pagani "




what management team has ever wanted to give capital back? these guys love sticking holes in the ground. read the release - it only mentions the board doing this and that etc etc.

[bunter]

IMHO there are signs of intelligent life at NZO - the Tui purchase, capital return, the proposed share buy back, and cutting back on exploration. And good on them for fronting up on this forum - it was obvious they'd read the comments and knew there were some pretty hostile posters around.<br><br>I think NZO is a possible recovery stock. I don't care if ZETA et al go to 23% as a result of the buyback; can't see how it could hurt.<br><br>Would any NZO holder really want Zeta be forced to sell down, and depress the share price?

[digger]

IMHO there are signs of intelligent life at NZO - the Tui purchase, capital return, the proposed share buy back, and cutting back on exploration. And good on them for fronting up on this forum - it was obvious they'd read the comments and knew there were some pretty hostile posters around.<br><br>I think NZO is a possible recovery stock. I don't care if ZETA et al go to 23% as a result of the buyback; can't see how it could hurt.<br><br>Would any NZO holder really want Zeta be forced to sell down, and depress the share price?

NZO management must also read sharetrader and say from time to time there is sign of intelligence that come from this forum. So well done bunter this post [14824] certainly qualifies as an intelligent one. I could not agree more.
I will vote most probably for the buy back and the provision that Zeta does not have to take part and thereby lifting its percentage holding in NZO above 20%. I will not take part in selling any of my shares but will be glad to see soft seller exit.The present glut of oil will be a thing of the past in 2 years and probably back in boom times if not sooner,and in the meantime sellers that want out will get their chance. The provision put in place for Zeta must have a limit though. It can not be allowed to take control of the company this way----by using a company buyback to generate a ZETA takover. For now it must have a time limit and a percentage Zeta holding limit. Anyone want to suggest what those limits should be . But it must not be open ended.

[dodgy]

NZO management must also read sharetrader and say from time to time there is sign of intelligence that come from this forum. So well done bunter this post [14824] certainly qualifies as an intelligent one. I could not agree more.
I will vote most probably for the buy back and the provision that Zeta does not have to take part and thereby lifting its percentage holding in NZO above 20%. I will not take part in selling any of my shares but will be glad to see soft seller exit.The present glut of oil will be a thing of the past in 2 years and probably back in boom times if not sooner,and in the meantime sellers that want out will get their chance. The provision put in place for Zeta must have a limit though. It can not be allowed to take control of the company this way----by using a company buyback to generate a ZETA takover. For now it must have a time limit and a percentage Zeta holding limit. Anyone want to suggest what those limits should be . But it must not be open ended.


Digger and Bunter
I agree with your Zeta argument except I still believe no company for whatever reason should be allowed to bend the rules of the NZX - full stop. As for NZO winding back operations for exploration and awaiting a turn up in oil returns (in probably 5 or so years at a guess) - Great. But Digger you seem to forget that the back room overhead was hired and installed by existing management for the sole purpose of expanding the exploration abilities and growing reserves - the later not being achieved except Tui expansion with very marginal payback economics and an indeterminate and unquantified success in Asia. The only way forward is to BUY existing producing assets - not another PPP !!!

[Beagle]

NZO management must also read sharetrader and say from time to time there is sign of intelligence that come from this forum. So well done bunter this post [14824] certainly qualifies as an intelligent one. I could not agree more.
I will vote most probably for the buy back and the provision that Zeta does not have to take part and thereby lifting its percentage holding in NZO above 20%. I will not take part in selling any of my shares but will be glad to see soft seller exit.The present glut of oil will be a thing of the past in 2 years and probably back in boom times if not sooner,and in the meantime sellers that want out will get their chance. The provision put in place for Zeta must have a limit though. It can not be allowed to take control of the company this way----by using a company buyback to generate a ZETA takover. For now it must have a time limit and a percentage Zeta holding limit. Anyone want to suggest what those limits should be . But it must not be open ended.

Really ?
December 2017 Brent Oil futures trading under $72, ever Dec 2018 four years out is only trading at just over $73. The futures market indicates many years of considerably lower oil prices.
http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/CBZ17
http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/CBZ18

Just as well they have the common sense to cut back on exploration. If only they'd take a serious knife to corporate overheads and staff it might be worth owing some based on the fact that they would then finally be acting in the best interests of shareholders.

[dodgy]

Roger
100% - at least you are not blinded by PR bling as unfortunately I think Digger may be.
We need some balance in this discussion.

[Xerof]

Please guys, do some research on Contango, and Backwardation when you want to make meaningful comments on what futures are telling us. Futures prices are not an indication of the future price - they reflect cost of carry (interest, storage etc) and are normally higher than spot, otherwise the arbitrage comes into play.

[Beagle]

Please guys, do some research on Contango, and Backwardation when you want to make meaningful comments on what futures are telling us. Futures prices are not an indication of the future price - they reflect cost of carry (interest, storage etc) and are normally higher than spot, otherwise the arbitrage comes into play.

Please explain further mate. Lets take that futures contract December 2018...that's a contract for physical delivery in December 2018 at approx $73. Yes its higher than spot Brent front month January 2015 delivery of $59 approx. but oil producers and consumers can use the Dec 18 contract to lock in a price for physical delivery in Dec 2018 do they not ? Obviously if someone took delivery of X million barrels in January 2015 at $59 they'd reap $14 per barrel for storing it for 47 months if there are any storage facilities left, I'd imagine they're all close to full as would be the U.S.'s strategic petroleum reserve. Please elaborate if I'm missing some of the picture.

[Beagle]

Roger
100% - at least you are not blinded by PR bling as unfortunately I think Digger may be.
We need some balance in this discussion.

Thanks. Balance are you reading this :)

[Xerof]

In your example, they could indeed buy at $59, and then deliver in Dec 18 at $14 higher BUT they also have to pay the storage, and an implied borrowing cost (or if you like, an opportunity cost) to fund the initial purchase. The futures prices reflect these costs. Producers and consumers will operate in the futures markets fairly mechanically, to remove risk, and maintain a stable balance sheet. Speculators, on the other hand.........assist with making a liquid market, and take on risk as they see fit

But my point is SPOT is everything, the futures prices are merely a function of dynamics relating to costs of carry

HTH

thats it from me - there's a world full of explanations only a keystroke or two away, that can develop your understanding

[Beagle]

Agreed Xerof except that if the market perceived there was going to be a shortage of oil in the future the futures prices would reflect that perceived shortage. Also your proposition that futures simply reflect spot plus holding costs assumes there's ample storage around, which there isn't. Presently the market is telling us via the futures that there's ample cheap oil for the foreseeable future that's my point and was in response to diggers proposition that prices would recover substantially within 2 years, probably sooner. Lower for longer for both interest rates and oil is where I see it.

In an environment of lower oil for longer and reduced exploration I'd expect a prudent board and CEO to be looking hard at head count and head office costs.

[bung5]

Could be possible that Zeta make a partial takeover for 51% then try and merge with CUE.

[Snow Leopard]

Agreed Xerof except that if the market perceived there was going to be a shortage of oil in the future the futures prices would reflect that perceived shortage. Also your proposition that futures simply reflect spot plus holding costs assumes there's ample storage around, which there isn't. Presently the market is telling us via the futures that there's ample cheap oil for the foreseeable future that's my point and was in response to diggers proposition that prices would recover substantially within 2 years, probably sooner. Lower for longer for both interest rates and oil is where I see it.

In an environment of lower oil for longer and reduced exploration I'd expect a prudent board and CEO to be looking hard at head count and head office costs.

A comparison of the spot price of oil for any particular date and the historical chart of prices for oil futures for that date would be quite instructive.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Billy Boy]

Could be possible that Zeta make a partial takeover for 51% then try and merge with CUE.
.
Or PPP......:D

[fabs]

Apparently partial T/O not on, but stand to be corrected.
The lot or nothing.
Yes they got a few shares in CUE.

[digger]

A comparison of the spot price of oil for any particular date and the historical chart of prices for oil futures for that date would be quite instructive.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Yes indeed it would. This is something I simple can not understand. If FUTURES is so great we should be able to look back and see what we have today. How many FUTURES predicted the present crash?? They did not because it is politically driven. Try Putin if you do not understand. When you get that you will see why I say it will all be different in two years regardless of what the current FUTURES says. But yes Paper Tiger if you can get your comparison please post it here. From what I can see Futures are no more accurate than the old dart throw.

[Beagle]

Futures represent the consensus view of where oil will be, the consensus of speculators, traders, producers and large consumers. Its also a product of spot plus holding costs if anyone's game enough to try and store the stuff for 4 years and has the facility to do so. Predicting the future is always fraught with massive amounts of variations but the fact remains some producers are locking in December 2018 production at circa $73, unless the longer futures are all just speculators.
Of course nobody saw this coming and therefore nobody knows when it might recover either which makes a bit of a nonsense of your claim it'll come good within two years...its all just speculation but the futures nonetheless give you an idea of current consensus view. Conspiracy theories abound e.g. have the Saudi's and Americans cooperated to keep production up and conspired against Russia to give them some serious cold war "treatment". You think Putin will give in any time soon and this cold war will be over soon, really ?

[BigBob]

Could be possible that Zeta make a partial takeover for 51% then try and merge with CUE.

Nicely called bung5...:


Purchase of interest in Cue Energy
9:05am, 22 Dec 2014 | GENERAL

New Zealand Oil & Gas has agreed to purchase 19.99 per cent of shares in ASX-listed exploration and production company Cue Energy.

The holding was purchased off market from Todd Petroleum Mining at AUD10 cents per share, for a total value of AUD$13.96 million. The agreement is expected to be completed today.

Chief executive Andrew Knight says, "Cue has a 5 per cent interest in the Maari field in PMP 38160, which we view as a quality asset and exposure to it fits our portfolio well."

John Pagani
External Relations Manager
+64 21 570 872