NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[bung5]

Time to start buying CUE.

[dodgy]

Time to start buying CUE.

Leaves Todd mining and Todd energy with about 6% of Cue. As Todd is a pretty sharp minerals investor I would question this move - I think Zeta already has a lump of Cue which has not performed at all well in the last 4-5 years. I think $m20 would go along way towards a div and resulting share price uplift.
Happy holidays to all and safe investing 2015 !!

[bung5]

Zeta has been buying CUE over the last few months presumably to try and sort a merger with NZO. A stake of 19.9% in CUE doesn't really achieve much however a merge with CUE makes great sense as they can cut out the huge admin costs and reap the large revenue and exploration portfolio that CUE has.

[dodgy]

bung5
Obviously you don't live in the merged Auckland Super city - promised synergies actually means More not Less . I have yet to see very many listed companies mergers result in anywhere near the promised savings. Democratic companies need more shareholders of fair spread not consolidated weight throwers. I guess it may be different in Buenos Aires but I would be surprised . Maybe Christina would know.

[bung5]

bung5
Obviously you don't live in the merged Auckland Super city - promised synergies actually means More not Less . I have yet to see very many listed companies mergers result in anywhere near the promised savings. Democratic companies need more shareholders of fair spread not consolidated weight throwers. I guess it may be different in Buenos Aires but I would be surprised . Maybe Christina would know.


Haha I don't think Christina is a fan of capitalism. I'm back in wellington now where they are planning on following on Auckland s success as a Supercity :P
You may be right, but it doesn't mean it won't happen. I'm not a shareholder of NZO for a few years now but I will be increasing my shareholding in CUE to take advantage of what I think will happen.

[fabs]

Seeing nzo forged out 10Ac @ nearly 20% premium, when they are on the market for 8.5Ac and O/P still very weak ???
Hope this is not a case like, I scratch your back if you scratch mine, in there somewhere ???

[bung5]

Seeing nzo forged out 10Ac @ nearly 20% premium, when they are on the market for 8.5Ac and O/P still very weak ???
Hope this is not a case like, I scratch your back if you scratch mine, in there somewhere ???

Surley Zeta and NZO must be in some sort of collaboration about taking over CUE on the cheap. With CUE's large cash balance even if they take over for 14c a share, once they extract the cash holdings they will be getting CUE for an amount that the profit from the existing producing assets would pay off in a few years.

[fabs]

When T. Radford was a CEO of both NZO & PPP
NZO was investing millions in PPP.
Where did that get us???

[skid]

Market likes it

[Corporate]

When T. Radford was a CEO of both NZO & PPP
NZO was investing millions in PPP.
Where did that get us???


This is exactly what I was thinking, except I thought Nzo were buying PPP when David Salisbury was at the helm.

Cue seems to be in play. Cue, nzo and PPP should all merge creating a company with some scale.

[BFG]

NEN seems to be going with a buyout from EvoWorld and MEO will likely reconsider a buyout option from Mosman Oil now. The weakest links will try and consolidate or sell into larger entities, or go bust if nothing eventuates, in a tough market. This is only the beginning, so expect more of it.

[fabs]

Cue seems to be in play. Cue, nzo and PPP should all merge creating a company with some scale.[/QUOTE]

On the prompting of T/R ---IMHO
Stand to be corrected!

[dodgy]

Great New Year to all. Says it all really, NZO 6th worst share performer 2014 (NZ Herald). Capital return with no other changes - WOW! Mind blowing advance - thanks NZO

[BFG]

Great New Year to all. Says it all really, NZO 6th worst share performer 2014 (NZ Herald). Capital return with no other changes - WOW! Mind blowing advance - thanks NZO

Expect more of the same in 2015. Minus the capital return of course :)

[dodgy]

Expect more of the same in 2015. Minus the capital return of course :)

Can't wait. I fear you are probably right.

[dsurf]

yes, I understand this. we get very mixed and strong views on the value or not of the imputed dividend, we are always seeking to Balance a declining production base and the dividend flow with investing for future dividends, arguably we underinvested in the mid 2000's and are now trying to catch up.

I am concerned by the statement "arguably we underinvested in the mid 2000s and are now trying to catch up". My concerns in no particular order:

1/ I could be wrong but didn't oil slump, after the GFC in 2008, which greatly reduced the price of producing assets via listed companies in 2009? This was 5 years ago and not mid 2000's.

2/ Following the intake of $1:50 per share with the stated aim of increasing production some of this money should have spent on acquiring assets. Myself and other shareholders were repeatedly asking for this to happen on this forum. Acquisitions didn't happen and hopefully none of the gutless executives from 2009 are still about. There is no argument because shareholders have never had an explanation as to the rationale of the executive at the time not to invest. I assume any explanation would state that exploration offered greater benefits over acquisition. If true that is gambling as a balanced approach at a time of great uncertainty (GFC) would seem appropriate by a board with 100's of years of cumulative experience. Instead they did nothing and became emu's - however this time is different!!

3/ A capital return is probably good for long suffering shareholders but is not aligned with a strategy that sees growth by acquisition of cheap assets resulting from low oil prices that will persist in the next 18 to 24 month.

etc etc

- nothing has or will change until this company is not run as a private funding vehicle for insiders

I am glad I sold out at 95c because their is an ongoing lack of a coherent long term strategy that benefits the shareholders. There is clearly a strategy that benefits the executives, ie, live off Tui and don't worry be happy!

[fish]

3/ A capital return is probably good for long suffering shareholders but is not aligned with a strategy that sees growth by acquisition of cheap assets resulting from low oil prices that will persist in the next 18 to 24 month.

etc etc

- nothing has or will change until this company is not run as a private funding vehicle for insiders

I am glad I sold out at 95c because their is an ongoing lack of a coherent long term strategy that benefits the shareholders. There is clearly a strategy that benefits the executives, ie, live off Tui and don't worry be happy![/QUOTE]

Hindsight is wonderful.
But how can you be sure that low oil prices will persist in the next 18 to 24 month ?
Kupe is a big earner and who knows how much of nzo share of royalties and future gas production is pre-sold at high prices?.
I suspect that Zeta will be driving a big change in nzo culture.
Nzo is unlikely to be going to go bust.We at least can see the upside of holding onto cash now.
However if low oil prices persist as for 18 to 24 months I would hold onto some cash for acquistions as there will be lots of indebted oil companies going under.

[fabs]

Irreversible Decline?By Mike Whitney on present scenario on oil prices.

INTERESTING TAKE!
You be the Judges.

[ziggy415]

" Nzo is unlikely to be going to go bust.We at least can see the upside of holding onto cash now "....Sadly not so sure about zeta..when holding 14% they stated they wanted their hands on nzo cash...now with 20% looks like they have succeeded....whats good for Zeta is all that matters to them when all shareholders can see value in keeping cash for distressed assets ...a case of the tail wagging the dog

[notie]

" Nzo is unlikely to be going to go bust.We at least can see the upside of holding onto cash now "....Sadly not so sure about zeta..when holding 14% they stated they wanted their hands on nzo cash...now with 20% looks like they have succeeded....whats good for Zeta is all that matters to them when all shareholders can see value in keeping cash for distressed assets ...a case of the tail wagging the dog

definitely a case of the tail wagging the dog with Zeta and Duncan's is a raider, so cares little for the good of NZOG, but now he is on the board he'll try to prevent any exploration and increase the amount of money returned to investors, or more likely play a longer game, run nzog down and then take it over, get rid of all the expensive staff and live off a nice revenue stream

[bunter]

definitely a case of the tail wagging the dog with Zeta and Duncan's is a raider, so cares little for the good of NZOG, but now he is on the board he'll try to prevent any exploration and increase the amount of money returned to investors, or more likely play a longer game, run nzog down and then take it over, get rid of all the expensive staff and live off a nice revenue stream

I'm a shareholder so my interests are the same as Zeta's.
If NZO does *exactly* what you just said (and honours existing exploration commitments) the DCF value is about $1, I reckon.

Plus any upside from an oil price increase.


Pay 58c (the theoretical ex-capital return price) and getting a dollar (in today's money) is a good idea IMO.

[notie]

I'm a shareholder so my interests are the same as Zeta's.
If NZO does *exactly* what you just said (and honours existing exploration commitments) the DCF value is about $1, I reckon.

Plus any upside from an oil price increase.


Pay 58c (the theoretical ex-capital return price) and getting a dollar (in today's money) is a good idea IMO.

except you won't get the full value via the takeover, but zeta will get the benefit of the low term revenue stream. Basically shareholders will be screwed again

[ziggy415]

I'm a shareholder so my interests are the same as Zeta's.
If NZO does *exactly* what you just said (and honours existing exploration commitments) the DCF value is about $1, I reckon.

Plus any upside from an oil price increase.


Pay 58c (the theoretical ex-capital return price) and getting a dollar (in today's money) is a good idea IMO.
Morning Bunter, Im sure I read that the Kaheru drill that was earmarked for early this year has been put on hold so already the exploration expenses have been saved but with tui running down new reserves are needed so not sure if this strategy is in the shareholders interests......am interested where you got the 58 cents ex divvy price from because thanks to Balances constant sniping at nzo i started looking at shale oil ..glut etc and thought that maybe he was right (cant believe i just said that) so i sold at just over 80 cents and am now sitting in no mans land and cant decide whether to dip my toe back into nzo now or after the divvy

[BFG]

Morning Bunter, Im sure I read that the Kaheru drill that was earmarked for early this year has been put on hold so already the exploration expenses have been saved but with tui running down new reserves are needed so not sure if this strategy is in the shareholders interests......am interested where you got the 58 cents ex divvy price from because thanks to Balances constant sniping at nzo i started looking at shale oil ..glut etc and thought that maybe he was right (cant believe i just said that) so i sold at just over 80 cents and am now sitting in no mans land and cant decide whether to dip my toe back into nzo now or after the divvy

A point to consider in your decision is that with all the negativity surrounding this company and lack of historical payback from NZO, do you really think people will rush to reinvest the dividend in NZO???

[bunter]

am interested where you got the 58 cents ex divvy price from

It's ex - capital repayment.
Formula is price (ex) = price now - (75-price now)/4



..Kaheru drill that was earmarked for early this year has been put on hold so already the exploration expenses have been saved but with tui running down new reserves are needed so not sure if this strategy is in the shareholders interests..

Can't have it both ways.

The conservative path above (Zeta's, according to speculation on this forum, but who knows) suits me - good chance of 'turning 50c into a dollar', with possibility of more (or less) depending on oil prices, exchange rates, exploration success.

Those who prefer more risk / possible bonanza / possible bust have plenty of choice in other companies.

[fish]

A point to consider in your decision is that with all the negativity surrounding this company and lack of historical payback from NZO, do you really think people will rush to reinvest the dividend in NZO???
Nobody knows
Unlikely I will as I have too much invested in this company already.
But it depends-so many factors that could change in the next few weeks.
Personally I don't believe that the price of oil is likely to remain low for long-natural depletion of existing fields is high and exploration and development is drastically reduced.
So if we see climbing prices when pateke extension comes on line I might reinvest some if the sp remains low

[BFG]

Nobody knows
Unlikely I will as I have too much invested in this company already.
But it depends-so many factors that could change in the next few weeks.
Personally I don't believe that the price of oil is likely to remain low for long-natural depletion of existing fields is high and exploration and development is drastically reduced.
So if we see climbing prices when pateke extension comes on line I might reinvest some if the sp remains low

Just when you think it can't go any lower... it will!!!

[babymonster]

Just when you think it can't go any lower... it will!!!
hopefully the oil price is more stable now...

[BFG]

hopefully the oil price is more stable now...

Not a chance matey, volatility will continue for some time imho. I'm not expecting a drop below $40 though...

[babymonster]

I would say 45 to 50 is the bottom

[fish]

I would say 45 to 50 is the bottom
We can only speculate -and speculation is a factor in driving the price.
Because of speculation we will see more volatility.
Banks and investors hate volatility so lending for oil development is likely to be curtailed and more expensive.
I would guess that a lot of oil production-eg Canadian oil sands and a lot of fracking is uneconomic at current prices.
The question I ask is has production stopped yet in these fields?
How much development no longer has finance?

[arjay]

Fracking is certainly uneconomic now, and the first US fracking companies are starting to go under. Tellingly, a number of posters on this thread have stopped their squawking about how NZO should be buying into fracking in the Hawkes Bay. Having no debt and some production should carry NZO through to higher oil prices. BTW, anyone know how low oil can go before Tui fiel dbecomes uneconomic to produce?

[skid]

We can only speculate -and speculation is a factor in driving the price.
Because of speculation we will see more volatility.
Banks and investors hate volatility so lending for oil development is likely to be curtailed and more expensive.
I would guess that a lot of oil production-eg Canadian oil sands and a lot of fracking is uneconomic at current prices.
The question I ask is has production stopped yet in these fields?
How much development no longer has finance?

What we are speculating on is when the political games stop and oil finds its natural price--right now everyone is losing money on oil (even Saudi Arabia,in terms of balancing the budget)--but some will gain politically and eventually economically(is there any difference?)
Of course alot will fall by the wayside and suffer---The Saudis are making Iran and Russia suffer--they are not happy with those who support Syria---The US is playing the game for now (hell they dont have a snowballs chance in hell of balancing their books anyway--whats a bit more debt?)

This is Walmart 101---lose money while squeezing out the competitors.

[fabs]

Paid 10cents for Cue less than a month ago, now 8.3 cents.
We sure get our moneys worth from these roosters expertise.
That new director talked them into this sure thing, i guess.
Last time they held back too long, this time out of the stalls like a bullet
WOW, WHAT A TEAM.
Could not do worse if they tried.

[babymonster]

Nothing happen for a few days, tho the whole world are rallying.

[barleeni]

Reasonably good announcement today:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZO/announcements/260058

And another reasonably good announcement a few weeks back not yet discussed on sharetrader:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZO/announcements/259568

And I believe the capital return will take place in the month of February? Not the best of news as I paid $0.76 for my shares and am effectively having them taken away from me and offered in return only $0.75 :( but still significantly above current sp.

[tim23]

They said news on capital return due late January so nearly there.

[babymonster]

Shall the sp increase after the capital return? I assume there is fewer shares floating around. Correct me if i got it wrong.

[777]

Shall the sp increase after the capital return? I assume there is fewer shares floating around. Correct me if i got it wrong.

(5*63)-(1*75)=(4*60)

So 3c less than todays price of 63c.

[babymonster]

(5*63)-(1*75)=(4*60)

So 3c less than todays price of 63c.

Ok, cool, thanks, that's not that bad

[barleeni]

(5*63)-(1*75)=(4*60)

So 3c less than todays price of 63c.

Maybe, but the reality is the companies forward earnings shouldn't change drastically due to the capital return, which in turn may see the share price go up? (assuming dividends would begin again in the near future ?????) Same profit distributed amongst fewer shareholders?!?!?

[Sideshow Bob]

They said news on capital return due late January so nearly there.

Think quarterly out Friday.

Although this is the last business day of January.....

[777]

Maybe, but the reality is the companies forward earnings shouldn't change drastically due to the capital return, which in turn may see the share price go up? (assuming dividends would begin again in the near future ?????) Same profit distributed amongst fewer shareholders?!?!?

We are talking theoretical here. They probably won't be 63c either on the day they go ex.

[fabs]

They said news on capital return due late January so nearly there.

More like end of Feb.
But don't hold your breath.

[digger]

More like end of Feb.
But don't hold your breath.

Are they not waiting for some govt clearance for the cap return and in fact just said that they hoped it would be by end of January. Once that is received they would notify us and give a 10 day to sort out who will be available to receive the payout.
I pick the end of Feb---but it still depends on this govt clearance.

[babymonster]

Are they not waiting for some govt clearance for the cap return and in fact just said that they hoped it would be by end of January. Once that is received they would notify us and give a 10 day to sort out who will be available to receive the payout.
I pick the end of Feb---but it still depends on this govt clearance.
it's the high court

[Mr Tommy]

The Dominion had article about Kupe today:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/65469175/kupe-test-results-look-positive-nzog

[dodgy]

Shall the sp increase after the capital return? I assume there is fewer shares floating around. Correct me if i got it wrong.

Hi BM
Generally share prices decline immediately after cap return. You are correct that the available ongoing div is enhanced by the reduced issued shares. Note that med term all things being equal, without reference to oil/exchange etc., the capital per share will remain in the low 80,s so the shares continue to trade at a discount based on risk. I liked the positive spin on Kupe but continue to believe that overhead reduction is crucial to maximizing profit - I have to wonder how much the great overpaid backroom think tank contributes when Origin is the operator and presumably holds the analytical and tactical sway.

[babymonster]

Shall I buy more?

[BFG]

Shall I buy more?

Haha you're a funny man BM!

Check over the thread say a year or two ago. There are plenty of reasons to never touch this company, starting with management ;)

[BIRMANBOY]

Why on earth would you seek advice from people whom you know nothing about, are not authorized financial advisors and perhaps may not even own the stock. The forum should be used to test ideas, see what other people think and see what the history of opinion looks like. If you do some research yourself and see how that compares to other views then that is utilizing the best features of the forum. To base your actions on what other say is in my opinion lazy and ultimately you will learn very little. Its easy to see every type of viewpoint here from some saying "don't touch it with a barge pole" all the way to extolling its virtues. That's their experience and I'm sure its valid in their own mind but may not have anything at all to do with your circumstances.
Shall I buy more?

[babymonster]

Alrite, I was just keeping this threat going.

[dodgy]

Shall I buy more?

Good morning BM
A fair but unanswerable question regarding purchasing this company. I have been an investor since the very early 80's over a wide range of assets and are daily trading in the NZX . I am invested in many (including NZO) shares , and can only say that although Birmanboy offers sound advice I differ in so far as you can research , chart, predict and analyse until you are blue in the face, but at the end of the day all investing (houses, shares, rare coins, to the future price of Mogolian Yak poo etc.) is nothing short of a guess, despite what the army of consultants may say, or in fact a monkey or turtle predict. In the case of NZO, it suffers from hugely variable management ability (in my opinion currently on a downward trend), an over weighted in house overhead, oil prices, exchange rates, geologic decision making , public opinion (think green) etc.etc.
I can't even subscribe to the "spread your investment risk" mantra ,continually regurgitated by the investment advice industry, as over many informed and carefully considered years , I have not been able to find a guaranteed methodology . But at this point in time it may be better to spread your investment dollar over a very very wide range of investments - particularly in view of an increasingly volatile financial and geopolitical world.
At the end of the day its all a crap shoot. You pay your money and take your chances. Human nature displays that as with most things, everyone is keen to share their successes and generally hide their loses.
There is no advice worth taking , only your own ability and self faith to "have a go" , if you consider the risk/reward acceptable, so that you don't over fret or damage your health and general well being.
There is no guaranteed answer.
If you read my posts on NZO, NZR etc I do predict future events, probably as we all do, with no more success than the weather man or any one else. My opinion - most NZ listed company management, and certainly Directorship, appears driven by human nature and self interest, not with the investing communities best interests at heart. Strange really as we are all investors even down to buying any consumable.
Take care, enjoy or otherwise.

[babymonster]

Thanks dodgy. I do think of myself as a trader instead of an investor. So I don't really do much fundermentals analysis. I look at charts and trends, although I m suck at it. And I do like energy and mining sector. You r right, nobody has the crystal ball. Management is a huge issue for NZ business, my company is a good example, unwilling to take responsibility and take feedback from staff ect. Hopefully it will improve one day.

[BFG]

Thanks dodgy. I do think of myself as a trader instead of an investor. So I don't really do much fundermentals analysis. I look at charts and trends, although I m suck at it. And I do like energy and mining sector. You r right, nobody has the crystal ball. Management is a huge issue for NZ business, my company is a good example, unwilling to take responsibility and take feedback from staff ect. Hopefully it will improve one day.

Careful what you say on here BM, especially about your company. For every 1 poster there are about 10-20 lurkers. Some of us have been in trouble for posting up here before. Just think before you type ;)

[skid]

Good morning BM
A fair but unanswerable question regarding purchasing this company. I have been an investor since the very early 80's over a wide range of assets and are daily trading in the NZX . I am invested in many (including NZO) shares , and can only say that although Birmanboy offers sound advice I differ in so far as you can research , chart, predict and analyse until you are blue in the face, but at the end of the day all investing (houses, shares, rare coins, to the future price of Mogolian Yak poo etc.) is nothing short of a guess, despite what the army of consultants may say, or in fact a monkey or turtle predict. In the case of NZO, it suffers from hugely variable management ability (in my opinion currently on a downward trend), an over weighted in house overhead, oil prices, exchange rates, geologic decision making , public opinion (think green) etc.etc.
I can't even subscribe to the "spread your investment risk" mantra ,continually regurgitated by the investment advice industry, as over many informed and carefully considered years , I have not been able to find a guaranteed methodology . But at this point in time it may be better to spread your investment dollar over a very very wide range of investments - particularly in view of an increasingly volatile financial and geopolitical world.
At the end of the day its all a crap shoot. You pay your money and take your chances. Human nature displays that as with most things, everyone is keen to share their successes and generally hide their loses.
There is no advice worth taking , only your own ability and self faith to "have a go" , if you consider the risk/reward acceptable, so that you don't over fret or damage your health and general well being.
There is no guaranteed answer.
If you read my posts on NZO, NZR etc I do predict future events, probably as we all do, with no more success than the weather man or any one else. My opinion - most NZ listed company management, and certainly Directorship, appears driven by human nature and self interest, not with the investing communities best interests at heart. Strange really as we are all investors even down to buying any consumable.
Take care, enjoy or otherwise.

at the end of the day,yes,it is a guess,but the trick is for it to be as much an educated guess as possible--its not a total crap shoot.
If your not into FA then you should be learning as much as possible from the experienced chartists--find the good ones and read their posts---management is a big one though,especially if they are buying the companies shares and have a good track record.
Oil and gas exploration is not the flavor of the month like it used to be so care is needed when investing.

[skid]

After having a quick look at the chart(Im no expert) I cant see how you could interpret that as a buy

[dodgy]

After having a quick look at the chart(Im no expert) I cant see how you could interpret that as a buy

Hi Skid
I have looked at everything over the years and don't believe any analytical method is any better than the rest e.g. you mention charting - looking over your shoulder to determine the path ahead based on prior events or otherwise. Then trying to determine the road ahead even if is a virtual copy of the prior events. The best comparison is driving a car even if you drive the road regularly - something will always be different.If the different methods even came close to winning then there would be some very wealthy individuals who I suggest would be very loathe to share their advantages. Informed decision making is desirable but who knows everything. My main concern is always management, governance, overheads and honest information flow. In the NZO case ,e.g. although the capital return was shareholder endorsed, I have never read the numbers, for, against or fence sitters. I would appreciate if you can enlighten me .

[skid]

I was just speaking generally--I agree there is no sure fire way to predict the future--FA+TA seems to be the best we have.
I havent really followed NZO since the old days when it was the blue eyed boy of the NZX.
PPP has had a capital return a while back and tanked big time since then---It sure aint easy finding that stuff,and now with cheap oil and fracking It wouldnt be the investment for me personally.

I responded because to me it sounded(could have been wrong)that you were saying that its a total crap shoot and guess work and I was simply making the point that it is most likely somewhere in between that, and the elusive ''sure thing''(but only by doing the research)

[dodgy]

I was just speaking generally--I agree there is no sure fire way to predict the future--FA+TA seems to be the best we have.
I havent really followed NZO since the old days when it was the blue eyed boy of the NZX.
PPP has had a capital return a while back and tanked big time since then---It sure aint easy finding that stuff,and now with cheap oil and fracking It wouldnt be the investment for me personally.

I responded because to me it sounded(could have been wrong)that you were saying that its a total crap shoot and guess work and I was simply making the point that it is most likely somewhere in between that, and the elusive ''sure thing''(but only by doing the research)

Hi Skid
Crap shoot it is. Pity the poor recent investors who bought at $1.50 now getting back $0.75 / 5 shares and losing 1 share in the process. You are dead right with PPP - but I only wished to point out that the co. had indicated a $0.80+ asset value after split - not recommend buy or sell. Both companies were once NZO until spin off and subsequent poor direction and high overheads have got them to where they are today. I think they would be better off liquidating on first bounce and buying a chain of dress shops - lets hope not something like Postie Plus.......t.i.c.

[tim23]

Dodgy - so clever, some bought in @ $1.50 and may have sold at $1.80, hindsight is so wonderful with investment, who could have guessed the collapse in the oil price or PRC - black swan events that have had a huge impact on share price.

[digger]

So cap return on 20Feb with 13th being the xdate for entitlement.
Meanwhile the POO keeps falling. Any company with money in the bank could do very well by drilling on Wall Street as the saying goes once every second oil company goes broke along with a few countries.

[dodgy]

Dodgy - so clever, some bought in @ $1.50 and may have sold at $1.80, hindsight is so wonderful with investment, who could have guessed the collapse in the oil price or PRC - black swan events that have had a huge impact on share price.

Exactly Tim. Thats why I am so concerned that prudent conservative management seems to be missing in most part , low overheads, and a continued backstop of the most liquid of all - cash.

[tim23]

Dodgy - I guess my point is that with most stocks you could see hindsight ask investors in SNK or maybe investors who paid $10 for FBU last year or $2+ for TTK not so long ago etc.

[dodgy]

Dodgy - I guess my point is that with most stocks you could see hindsight ask investors in SNK or maybe investors who paid $10 for FBU last year or $2+ for TTK not so long ago etc.

Morning Tim
In every case you have mentioned and with many other NZ listed companies, management has not been the most estute in my opinion. There also appears to be a whole industry around IPO's and pump and dump - no doubt very lucrative to the promoters.
Good luck , as with lotto etc., that's all we buy.

[skid]

$1.60 was a pretty long time ago--back whe NZO was in a race with Pike for the highest SP----It may be a lottery in some ways,but those who held right through from those days have neglected some basic rules of investing---Education not only increases your chances of gain,but decreases your chance of loss---The charts are not a sure thing by any stretch--but they would have signaled an exit a long time ago(unlike emotions and basic lotto like gamblers mentality)

[777]

Pay day is 20/2/15.

[tim23]

Skid - a chart won't tell you about an unforeseen event (e.g the mine exploding)

[neopoleII]

my payday is going into my home business...... the best business investment i could possibly make.
had to lose a lot of money before i realized and learnt that im better off backing myself than relying on
a $500k ceo to do the best for my investment money.

having said that..... i will still continue to hold my many 1000's nzo lotto tickets.... whoops shares.....
just in case they pull a rabbit out of the hat.

i guess life is a learning curve..... i have gone full circle to end up backing myself.
all my shareholdings are in negative territory ...... but are paid for and
written off in my mind....... i took a punt and will let it ride out to the end.
my new goal is backing my own work, planning and destiny.

good luck to those that still buy shares hoping that "management" have "your" interests at heart.
wifey is backing me and her friends are backing her and orders are coming in.......

[Baa_Baa]

No, it won't tell you that, and a catastrophic event is better managed with stop losses.

But in less dramatic declines or rises in an SP, a chart will tell you fairly quickly where the money is going, in or out, and at what rate. The chart is just a visual representation of a truckload of data, though as they say a picture says a thousands words.

Fwiw, virtually all my research recently has a common theme, no .. not GFC2, though that is a theme, but TIMING. Weird eh. Common wisdom is 'time in the market', i.e. ride out the highs and lows, enjoy the divis while they're paying, etc etc.

But for some reason, go figure, a growing chorus of opinion is about 'timing the market'. You can't time the market without being able to observe it. Charts do help with that. My take on it is that I'll cut my divis, by exiting a stock, when my threshold of capital loss is hit. Charts help with that. I'll do the opposite, like buy the stock when the opportunity for capital gains is apparent. Charts help with that too. It's about timing, the in's and the out's. Most of my shares are earners, so I don't take lightly the decision to quit a stock or buy a different one. But I don't know any other way of doing it, timing that is.

JMHO.




Skid - a chart won't tell you about an unforeseen event (e.g the mine exploding)

[neopoleII]

ba ba,
nice statement you made.
i never had the mind set or knowledge to research share like you do and can.
but i knew that some very clever folks were in charge of these companies.......
so i invested into the company and those managing them...........
in the belief that they knew wealth creation better than I.

sadly.... to be able to research a company indepth and understand that study.........
means you have to be as smart at those who manage those companies.

And some of us think they are investing..... but generally are gambling......
this is where sharetraders, sharks, and money players make their profits.

I am learning though.

[bunter]

my payday is going into my home business...... the best business investment i could possibly make.
had to lose a lot of money before i realized and learnt that im better off backing myself than relying on
a $500k ceo to do the best for my investment money.

having said that..... i will still continue to hold my many 1000's nzo lotto tickets.... whoops shares.....
just in case they pull a rabbit out of the hat.

i guess life is a learning curve..... i have gone full circle to end up backing myself.
all my shareholdings are in negative territory ...... but are paid for and
written off in my mind....... i took a punt and will let it ride out to the end.
my new goal is backing my own work, planning and destiny.

good luck to those that still buy shares hoping that "management" have "your" interests at heart.
wifey is backing me and her friends are backing her and orders are coming in.......

My best investments were in things I could add value to. Good luck.

[dodgy]

My best investments were in things I could add value to. Good luck.

Bunter
Agree with you 100% . When you loose the major part of control you gain someone else's abilities. 38 years ago I quit GM, as the title was in those days, to back myself, hardest, scariest (with new house and young family), but by far THE BEST decision I have ever made. No I don't get a new car yearly, perks and office cooler gossip but lifestyle and the most precious investment/commodity - time.
Good fortune to all free spirits!

[skid]

Skid - a chart won't tell you about an unforeseen event (e.g the mine exploding)

Your absolutely right-charts cant tell you when an unusual event like Pike will happen--But look at the charts after that

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/superchart.aspx?sc=NZO&eg=NZ This is the closest to a chart with the 50day moving average and the 200day moving average I could get quickly on DB.

The basic rule of thumb is to get out when the 50dayma crosses below the 200day ma(known as the ''death cross''--If you look at this chart you will see the 30dayma crosses above the 180day ma for only a short time (the only time to consider buying) but soon dips below in sept at around 78c- signalling sell--see what happens after this?---tracks down to the 60s----nothing is sure thing but more often than not it can help save your skin.

[skid]

Your absolutely right-charts cant tell you when an unusual event like Pike will happen--But look at the charts after that

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/superchart.aspx?sc=NZO&eg=NZ This is the closest to a chart with the 50day moving average and the 200day moving average I could get quickly on DB.

The basic rule of thumb is to get out when the 50dayma crosses below the 200day ma(known as the ''death cross''--If you look at this chart you will see the 30dayma crosses above the 180day ma for only a short time (the only time to consider buying) but soon dips below in sept at around 78c- signalling sell--see what happens after this?---tracks down to the 60s----nothing is sure thing but more often than not it can help save your skin.

well..that chart didnt come up like it was suppose too:scared: but you can get it by filling in the moving averages as close to 50-200(which is 30 for the 1st and 180 for the second to see where Im going with the previous statement.

[skid]

my payday is going into my home business...... the best business investment i could possibly make.
had to lose a lot of money before i realized and learnt that im better off backing myself than relying on
a $500k ceo to do the best for my investment money.

having said that..... i will still continue to hold my many 1000's nzo lotto tickets.... whoops shares.....
just in case they pull a rabbit out of the hat.

i guess life is a learning curve..... i have gone full circle to end up backing myself.
all my shareholdings are in negative territory ...... but are paid for and
written off in my mind....... i took a punt and will let it ride out to the end.
my new goal is backing my own work, planning and destiny.

good luck to those that still buy shares hoping that "management" have "your" interests at heart.
wifey is backing me and her friends are backing her and orders are coming in.......

Good that your backing yourself with your home business--and hopefully the smartest investment of all=paying off the mortgage as quickly as possible.---But you second paragraph contradicts your first.

To me, backing yourself means sometimes accepting your loss and moving your dosh over to a share that has a better chance of succeeding.

I learned the hard way by watching PPP(like a stunned possum in the headlights ) drop down from 22 to alot lower. (should have sold far earlier)

I didnt make that mistake on shares bought after--Took a loss on one with disappointing sales) ,but got out and back in when things started looking better and finished in the black (I took the gains but set myself a limit if the price fell that would keep me in profit and sold at that point ,locking them in)

My biggest lesson--Dont get over emotionally attached and dont be afraid to take a loss and live to fight another day.

[pietrade]

Christchurch City Council opposes deep-sea oil proposal

Our Seas Our Future
1 Feb 2015 — Environmental groups are applauding the Christchurch City Council's stance against deep-sea oil drilling off Canterbury.

New Zealand Petroleum & Minerals (NZPAM), the government agency responsible for managing the country's oil, gas, mineral and coal resources, is seeking comment from local authorities and iwi on its proposed 2015 block offer, which includes a large offshore area stretching from South Canterbury to Banks Peninsula.

Read more: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/65535454/christchurch-city-council-opposes-deepsea-oil-drilling
--------------------------------

[Sideshow Bob]

Went to the investor update in Dunedin Friday. Good turnout, 40+ shareholders but a very definite demographic (ie older).

Nothing of real interest given quarterly update was out that morning. Good on them for coming out to the provinces though.

Sausage roll report: Good spread, didn't have an SR myself, but some tasty rap sandwiches plus ubiquitous savouries and scones and cream. Looked like many of the shareholders were looking to make up for previous losses by giving lunch a good crack.

Did have one poor quy stand up and detail his investing record with NZO, having bought in at the start 34 years ago and averaging 73c. Even quoted the headliner from 6 years ago about Poor suffering shareholders'. Was his first ever meeting.

[the machine]

Christchurch City Council opposes deep-sea oil proposal

Our Seas Our Future
1 Feb 2015 — Environmental groups are applauding the Christchurch City Council's stance against deep-sea oil drilling off Canterbury.

New Zealand Petroleum & Minerals (NZPAM), the government agency responsible for managing the country's oil, gas, mineral and coal resources, is seeking comment from local authorities and iwi on its proposed 2015 block offer, which includes a large offshore area stretching from South Canterbury to Banks Peninsula.

Read more: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/65535454/christchurch-city-council-opposes-deepsea-oil-drilling
--------------------------------

how much pull the council has in these matters is questionable

m

[notie]

Went to the investor update in Dunedin Friday. Good turnout, 40+ shareholders but a very definite demographic (ie older).

Nothing of real interest given quarterly update was out that morning. Good on them for coming out to the provinces though.

Sausage roll report: Good spread, didn't have an SR myself, but some tasty rap sandwiches plus ubiquitous savouries and scones and cream. Looked like many of the shareholders were looking to make up for previous losses by giving lunch a good crack.

Did have one poor quy stand up and detail his investing record with NZO, having bought in at the start 34 years ago and averaging 73c. Even quoted the headliner from 6 years ago about Poor suffering shareholders'. Was his first ever meeting.

Sad to say NZOG going nowhere fast and once they pay out their capital return, the share price will tumble. Nice wee earner for Zeta resources who take 12 million dollars out that way.

Going forward what will NZOG do? Kaeheru prospect will probably not be drilled and don't expect a lot from this company in the next year or two

[skid]

assuming you are right Notie(which is not a given considering I have never heard an objective post from you in the past about NZO) the question is what is the best course of action for a shareholder--Take the capital raising dosh and sell--take the dosh and hold--sell now--(or of course buy now)

[kanaka]

assuming you are right Notie(which is not a given considering I have never heard an objective post from you in the past about NZO) the question is what is the best course of action for a shareholder--Take the capital raising dosh and sell--take the dosh and hold--sell now--(or of course buy now)

I suppose it all depends on your needs, for mine take the money and run

[Beagle]

Went to the investor update in Dunedin Friday. Good turnout, 40+ shareholders but a very definite demographic (ie older).

Nothing of real interest given quarterly update was out that morning. Good on them for coming out to the provinces though.

Sausage roll report: Good spread, didn't have an SR myself, but some tasty rap sandwiches plus ubiquitous savouries and scones and cream. Looked like many of the shareholders were looking to make up for previous losses by giving lunch a good crack.

Did have one poor quy stand up and detail his investing record with NZO, having bought in at the start 34 years ago and averaging 73c. Even quoted the headliner from 6 years ago about Poor suffering shareholders'. Was his first ever meeting.

Highlights everything that is wrong with this company IMO. Very few dividends in that lengthy period, no capital growth and all the while geologists, management and directors paid handsomely well to generate substantial real inflation adjusted losses for shareholders. (65 cents or thereabouts in 2015 money is obviously only worth a small fraction of what 73 cents was 34 years ago in inflation adjusted terms). In fact I couldn't resist and went onto the Reserve Bank's inflation calculator http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/inflation_calculator/ and found 73 cents in Q1 1981 is now worth $3.08 in today's money just to be even in terms of getting your money back let alone actually getting some return on that money for 34 years !!
What a truly shocking destroyer of shareholder value this company has been. Different this time now that Tony Radford has well and truly gone right ? Yeah right, hand me another Tui.

[BFG]

Highlights everything that is wrong with this company IMO. Very few dividends in that lengthy period, no capital growth and all the while geologists, management and directors paid handsomely well to generate substantial real inflation adjusted losses for shareholders. (65 cents or thereabouts in 2015 money is obviously only worth a small fraction of what 73 cents was 34 years ago in inflation adjusted terms). In fact I couldn't resist and went onto the Reserve Bank's inflation calculator http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/inflation_calculator/ and found 73 cents in Q1 1981 is now worth $3.08 in today's money just to be even in terms of getting your money back let alone actually getting some return on that money for 34 years !!

How long have divvies been paid for? If they had been paying dividends all those years you'd at least hope you had recouped your initial capital outlay + a margin above the average bank deposit rate (inflation adjusted) over all those years!

[Beagle]

How long have divvies been paid for? If they had been paying dividends all those years you'd at least hope you had recouped your initial capital outlay + a margin above the average bank deposit rate (inflation adjusted) over all those years!

Only in very recent years have divvy's been paid mate...there was jack shyte paid in the first 27-28 years IIRC. All about investing for future growth you see. WOW that strategy has really paid off hasn't it :D

[BIRMANBOY]

Dividends since 2008 have been 40 cents...could be more I didn't go back further...also some may have had imputations attached..didn't bother checking.
Highlights everything that is wrong with this company IMO. Very few dividends in that lengthy period, no capital growth and all the while geologists, management and directors paid handsomely well to generate substantial real inflation adjusted losses for shareholders. (65 cents or thereabouts in 2015 money is obviously only worth a small fraction of what 73 cents was 34 years ago in inflation adjusted terms). In fact I couldn't resist and went onto the Reserve Bank's inflation calculator http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/inflation_calculator/ and found 73 cents in Q1 1981 is now worth $3.08 in today's money just to be even in terms of getting your money back let alone actually getting some return on that money for 34 years !!
What a truly shocking destroyer of shareholder value this company has been. Different this time now that Tony Radford has well and truly gone right ? Yeah right, hand me another Tui.

[Beagle]

Dividends since 2008 have been 40 cents...could be more I didn't go back further...also some may have had imputations attached..didn't bother checking.

Feels about right to me...divvy's for the last 6 years and to the best of my recollection nothing or most certainly nothing meaningful, before that.

[arjay]

Many long term shareholders will have recieved more than their initial outlay back in dividends. Prior to Kupe and Tui there was Ngatoro when divvies were also paid, so over the years a fair amount has been paid out. Thinking of all those who invested in the likes of Rada, Equiticorp and Crown Corp way back NZO has turned out OK IMO.

[fabs]

Feels about right to me...divvy's for the last 6 years and to the best of my recollection nothing or most certainly nothing meaningful, before that.

Yes THAT, is sadly the TRUTH.
Unless one bought and sold at near highs and lows.
This has been the proverbial Golden Goose supplying a cushy part time income for quite a lot of fortunate individuals in this top heavy management.
What is galling however is the fact that this co. had a lot going for it and one would have thought that even with halve the talent and supposed expertise trumpeted about since 2008 should have gone far.
AND THE GOOD NEWS FOR THEM, THEY WILL BE ABLE TO GO ON MILKING IT TO THE END.

[Beagle]

Well I can't see any divvies in the years 1998 - 2007 A full decade of NOTHING based on a quick look at the news items on the ANZ securities website which only goes back to 1998. Based on my recollection most of the 1980's and 1990's was also all about building up reserves to develop Kupe and Tui so I strongly disagree with A claim that "a fair amount has been paid out over the years".

Even if you could make the assertion that the average dividend yield has been a pathetic 3% over the long haul which is something I would strongly disagree with and would be well below prevailing interest rates in the eighties and nineties not to mention this century that still leaves the destruction of 80% of that poor gentleman's wealth in real terms who invested 34 years ago and that's before accounting for the fact that he could have got far more consistent, credible and reliable dividends and capital growth elsewhere. This company has a truly shocking record of shareholder wealth destruction any way you slice and dice it. Anyone thinking of investing would do very well to ponder where all the Tui and Kupe cash has gone and is going. Bloated overheads and overpaid so called "technical experts "
Why would any geologist with world class expertise be working for this minnow ???...which leaves them just hiring the left-overs doesn't it !!

[Balance]

Well I can't see any divvies in the years 1998 - 2007 A full decade of NOTHING based on a quick look at the news items on the ANZ securities website which only goes back to 1998. Based on my recollection most of the 1980's and 1990's was also all about building up reserves to develop Kupe and Tui so I strongly disagree with A claim that "a fair amount has been paid out over the years".

Even if you could make the assertion that the average dividend yield has been a pathetic 3% over the long haul which is something I would strongly disagree with and would be well below prevailing interest rates in the eighties and nineties not to mention this century that still leaves the destruction of 80% of that poor gentleman's wealth in real terms who invested 34 years ago and that's before accounting for the fact that he could have got far more consistent, credible and reliable dividends and capital growth elsewhere. This company has a truly shocking record of shareholder wealth destruction any way you slice and dice it. Anyone thinking of investing would do very well to ponder where all the Tui and Kupe cash has gone and is going. Bloated overheads and overpaid so called "technical experts "
Why would any geologist with world class expertise be working for this minnow ???...which leaves them just hiring the left-overs doesn't it !!

2008 was indeed when NZO started paying dividends - just after it received over $200m from shareholders and the market mostly via the exercise of options at $1.50 per share.

Shareholders were ecstatic though to receive some of that $1.50 back by way of dividends while the sp crashed from $1.80 to 65c.

Directors and management had a good time spending the rest of the loot though on misadventures.

Like Gorge Best famously said 'I spent most of my earnings on women and wine, the rest I squandered.'

[Beagle]

2008 was indeed when NZO started paying dividends - just after it received over $200m from shareholders and the market mostly via the exercise of options at $1.50 per share.

Shareholders were ecstatic though to receive some of that $1.50 back by way of dividends while the sp crashed from $1.80 to 65c.

Directors and management had a good time spending the rest of the loot though on misadventures.

Like Gorge Best famously said 'I spent most of my earnings on women and wine, the rest I squandered.'

Your memory is better than mine mate I'd forgotten about the "special opportunity" those options provided to "shareholders".
Sometimes the cliché "flea bitten mongrel" doesn't seem to quite cut it.

[skid]

So heres the big question folks--Just how many will ''take the money and run''as one poster put it.
NZO still certainly has assets but what will investors decide---Anything over 50c (SP) and you would come out ahead (assuming you would be able to then sell relatively easily.

How far down would the SP have to go for the co. to be undervalued enough to provide a support?

[Sideshow Bob]

Price is under NTA because of the track record.

How many take the money and run? Better places at present for me.

[bunter]

So heres the big question folks--Just how many will ''take the money and run''as one poster put it.
NZO still certainly has assets but what will investors decide---Anything over 50c (SP) and you would come out ahead (assuming you would be able to then sell relatively easily.

How far down would the SP have to go for the co. to be undervalued enough to provide a support?

One good support is at 15c - at that price, the theoretical ex price is 0 - i.e. you are getting shares for nothing.

[skid]

At the moment the theoretical break even point (aside from brokers fees)would be 50c-anything above that would be profit--so the real question is how well do the assets hold up the co. and how is that perceived by investors?

[bunter]

At the moment the theoretical break even point (aside from brokers fees)would be 50c-anything above that would be profit--so the real question is how well do the assets hold up the co. and how is that perceived by investors?
Hi Skid, what does the 50c price for NZOG mean to you? Is it NTA? Or the ex-price after capital return? your estimate of value? Or something else? How is 50c a theoretical break even point?

[tim23]

Think ex price 62.5 based on 65c now I.e I buy 5 shares @ 65 then they pay me 75c and cancel 1 share so I have 4 shares that cost 250c divide by 4!

[digger]

Think ex price 62.5 based on 65c now I.e I buy 5 shares @ 65 then they pay me 75c and cancel 1 share so I have 4 shares that cost 250c divide by 4!

so Tim23 you seem to be the only one that can do simple algebra.


4x+ 75= 5[65]
so x=62.5



The other seem to be talking rubbish

[tim23]

I just thought an ex price of 50c seemed too depressing!

[bunter]

1) Capital is reduced but number of shares on issue is too. That's why NAV after capital return goes up.

2) The theoretical ex price after the capital return is current price- (75 - current price)/4

So current price 65c means theoretical ex price of 62.5c

The market is saying the *real* value of NZO, after the capital return, is 62.5c


Plug 15 c into the formula above and see what you get.

[fabs]

Management quit happy to let you guys speculate, on their way to the bank.
Lets just wait and see.

[Joshuatree]

Maybe add the E to quit; could be mass celebrating or riots;)

[fabs]

Maybe add the E to quit; could be mass celebrating or riots;)

Thanks Josh, must be getting as slack as the management!

[skid]

Hi Skid, what does the 50c price for NZOG mean to you? Is it NTA? Or the ex-price after capital return? your estimate of value? Or something else? How is 50c a theoretical break even point?

I was thinking strictly on a buy -get the payout -sell,strategy---so if I bought @65--sold the day after closing of cap return at say 55--then I would be 5c in the black

If I have gotten that wrong ,I stand corrected (my old maths teacher will attest to that):) (this is not taking brokers fees into acc.)

[digger]

I was thinking strictly on a buy -get the payout -sell,strategy---so if I bought @65--sold the day after closing of cap return at say 55--then I would be 5c in the black

If I have gotten that wrong ,I stand corrected (my old maths teacher will attest to that):) (this is not taking brokers fees into acc.)

Skid you should have listen to your old maths teacher and paid less attention to the birds.
If you did what you outlined you would be 7.5 cents in the red not counting the additional red from broker fees. Remember the day after you get the 15 cent return you have 20% less shares to sell as 1 in 5 are to be cancelled. See my simple algerba on post 14845

[skid]

So the 15 cent return is in EXCHANGE for 20% of your shares--I didnt know that---guess the first step in doing a correct equation is making sure you have all the components.

I dont think I will be taking the plunge on this one (I dont however remember that happening with the PPP capital return)

Let me know if you have any questions about NZ birds:)

[Balance]

So what's there for investors and shareholders to look forward to after the share cancellation?


Rapidly declining Tui revenues from depleting fields,

renegotiations of Kupe gas contracts in an era of cheaper energy prices to come (15% more electricity supply from Tiwai Point),

same old tired management,

lousy investments in PPP etc,

new shareholder who has seized and is in control,

AND no dividends in foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, administration costs continue and was $9m last 6 months. Someone is happy!

[J R Ewing]

So what's there for investors and shareholders to look forward to after the share cancellation?


Rapidly declining Tui revenues from depleting fields,

renegotiations of Kupe gas contracts in an era of cheaper energy prices to come (15% more electricity supply from Tiwai Point),

same old tired management,

lousy investments in PPP etc,

new shareholder who has seized and is in control,

AND no dividends in foreseeable future.

But apart from that it's BUY?

[BFG]

So the 15 cent return is in EXCHANGE for 20% of your shares--I didnt know that---guess the first step in doing a correct equation is making sure you have all the components.

I dont think I will be taking the plunge on this one (I dont however remember that happening with the PPP capital return)

Let me know if you have any questions about NZ birds:)

Directors/employees will only ever be the winners here Skid. Best to apply the grey matter elsewhere :)

[skid]

The grey matter is already making tracks!:)

[BIRMANBOY]

Tracks or skid marks?
The grey matter is already making tracks!:)

[tim23]

Skid - not all capital return s the same but the details are well known

[ziggy415]

So the 15 cent return is in EXCHANGE for 20% of your shares--I didnt know that---guess the first step in doing a correct equation is making sure you have all the components.

I dont think I will be taking the plunge on this one (I dont however remember that happening with the PPP capital return)

Let me know if you have any questions about NZ birds:)

thats 15 cents per share.....75 in total then take 20% of your shares off you...... me thinks

[tim23]

You be correct ziggy!

[dodgy]

Hi all
By default NZO is actually doing something right in Forex . After years of seeing evaporative profits on their unhedged Forex holdings - the current unhedged position will be anything but detrimental in off setting the big slide in oil revenue.
-d

[777]

NZO is quoted as NZOZ today.

Theoretical price 63.125c.

[skid]

so Im assuming by that,that you would need the new SP to be at least .63 to break even (after factoring in the capital return)--anything above is profit and below is a loss?

[dingoNZ]

I expect it to trade at $0.505......... based of the last print in NZO yesterday

[ziggy415]

I expect it to trade at $0.505......... based of the last print in NZO yesterday
how did you arrive at this price

[skid]

Depth is not looking good at this stage--buy 44 sell 60 by my calculations,even the sell price is below being in the black after the capital raising--(correct me if Im wrong)

[dingoNZ]

My math was wrong, ignore.. I believe you're correct skid

[fabs]

Depth is not looking good at this stage--buy 44 sell 60 by my calculations,even the sell price is below being in the black after the capital raising--(correct me if Im wrong)

What is this capital raising above by the co. all about Skid???

Any ideas what the capital Z stand for that has been added to NZO.=== Does it stand for ZETA???

[skid]

What is this capital raising above by the co. all about Skid???

Any ideas what the capital Z stand for that has been added to NZO.=== Does it stand for ZETA???


Sorry--capital sharing.

How about that--SP is at .63 which is the break even point--so its neither here nor there..interesting..

[babymonster]

does that mean if i sell my reduced holding today, i still get the capital return?

[bunter]

Sorry--capital sharing.

How about that--SP is at .63 which is the break even point--so its neither here nor there..interesting..

I put in a buy at 51c - trying my luck - but turns out the market is better at sums than us ST posters.

[skid]

Sorry--capital sharing.

How about that--SP is at .63 which is the break even point--so its neither here nor there..interesting..

After going over my calculations again-I have realized that the closing price of 62 meant that if I had hypothetically bought at .65 I would have come out exactly even (less brokers fees)---how about that for an experiment-- My conclusion is that it wouldnt have been worth buying to stag.

[fabs]

Come to think of it, anyone selling there holdings just after the last div. Payment, would have been much better off.
At 75-77 cents
so where to from here???

[dodgy]

Come to think of it, anyone selling there holdings just after the last div. Payment, would have been much better off.
At 75-77 cents
so where to from here???

Fabs
Where to from here indeed. From where I am sitting (for a very long and increasingly painful time), from a return on investment in the company we shareholders "own" , the options are somewhat limited for any significant medium or long term price appreciation. As we all know Tui is on the wane, Indonesia is mired in politics and somewhat subject to the wims and fancies of governments that may not quite have the same objectives as shareholders - geopolitical risk on top of physical ones, Kupe has about a 13 year useful cash flow and investments in PPP and CUE may only be beneficial to a majority combined stakeholder like Zeta . So the options are
1. Reduced back office and PR overheads until the oil dynamic changes - including dare I say it, some fat cat salaries / positions.
2. Farm out (unlikely but still possible albeit at a reduced economic benefit but will reduce per well downside).
3. Farm in any "expertise" instead of in house - we seem to still be functioning without the "exploration manager" since his departure nearly 3 months ago.
4. Time to hire a rig to advance any drilling prospects - the world is awash with idled gear for obvious reasons. Sure drilling rewards may be uneconomic at present but if you have financial resource / cash flow and you will ultimately make the same decision later when the oil price improves , then today is the day to hire in at reduced cost thereby getting more bang for buck.
4. If there are no confident prospects in the "extensive" portfolio, then buy into some, or, walk slowly into the sunset as the future unravels. This company does not have a sustainable future based on immediate past performance.
This thread is probably the most active over the years (1.8m views ?) and from my recollection most comment has been less than congratulatary of performance.
Its time for owners to make their wishes clear to NZO or watch an investment withering - capital and potential dividends. People, stand up and ask the hard questions or I think we won't be having this conversation in 10 or so years time.

-dodgy

[fabs]

Yes Dodgy,
THAT, sums it up about as comprehensively as any.
BTW:
WOULD ALSO NOT TRUST THAT LOT AFTER SPENDING VALUABLE MILLIONS ON THE LIKES OF CUE THE S/PRICE OF WHICH WAS AND HAS STILL BEEN FALLING [ 10%= DOWN SO FAR }
AMIDST ALSO FALLING O/PRICES.
What a brilliant investment strategy.
A good case of putting them on the Social Benefits, would be more economically beneficial all-round.

[dodgy]

Yes Dodgy,
THAT, sums it up about as comprehensively as any.
BTW:
WOULD ALSO NOT TRUST THAT LOT AFTER SPENDING VALUABLE MILLIONS ON THE LIKES OF CUE THE S/PRICE OF WHICH WAS AND HAS STILL BEEN FALLING [ 10%= DOWN SO FAR }
AMIDST ALSO FALLING O/PRICES.
What a brilliant investment strategy.
A good case of putting them on the Social Benefits, would be more economically beneficial all-round.

Fabs
I see a good local dairy owner looking to sell. Maybe more money in baked beans , or running a dress shop.
-d

[bung5]

I don't think they will get very far with that sort of offer...

[bunter]

NZOG Offshore, a wholly-owned subsidiary of New Zealand Oil & Gas, is making an

unconditional takeover offer for ASX-listed Cue Energy Resources Limited.

The on-market cash offer of A$0.10 per share expires at the

end of trading on the ASX on 27 March 2015.

A copy of the Bidder’s Statement is attached and will be sent to Cue Energy shareholders.
New Zealand Oil & Gas believes Cue's major asset, a 5 per cent interest in the Maari oil field
in New Zealand, is a quality asset that fits our portfolio well.

In December New Zealand Oil & Gas, through NZOG Offshore, made an off-market

purchase of 19.99 per cent of Cue Energy from Todd Petroleum at the same price, for a total
value of A$13.96 million.

[babymonster]

a takeover bid on CUE... hmmm...

what's that mean to the shareholders? good or waste of money?

[dodgy]

Hi Bunter
I rest my case.
PPP will be next.
Zeta involvement, motivator ?
-d

[bung5]

51% should be easy to get wtih Zeta and todd shares. Think getting to 90% would require substantially higher bid

[the machine]

success means NZO has access to a lot of geological data for no extra cost
the value of this data may be worth more than the value of CUE

M

[dodgy]

[QUOTE=the machine;558497]success means NZO has access to a lot of geological data for no extra cost
the value of this data may be worth more than the value of CUE

Nta $A0.14, of which cash approx $A0.05, data for what thats worth, although I would have some faith in Todd being operator in some fields especially if it means slashing back room NZO overheads. Who will sell ? Australia doesn't look too excited today except for NZO at $A.10.

Excerpt from CUE Chairman's letter to shareholders (of which I am one), in late Jan 15.

"I have met with the chairman of NZOG and, while I believe that NZOG sees the current share price as considering undervaluing CUE, I remain unclear as to NZOG's future intentions with respect of the company".

Of course I guess he knows now. Zeta's intentions will be more of interest.
-d

[fabs]

Just when one imagined it could not get any worse.

[pietrade]

The news sure has put a rocket under the CUE price - up 13.9% and some 1,256,000 traded. Someone(s) likes the prospect.
561,075,095 bid at 10c.

[blockhead]

Very ironic for Blocky, some years ago I had the pip with NZO, still do as it happens, so I sold a fair few and used the proceeds to get a serving of CUE

NOW WHAT ??

NZO buys CUE

[Snow Leopard]

The news sure has put a rocket under the CUE price - up 13.9% and some 1,256,000 traded. Someone(s) likes the prospect.
561,075,095 bid at 10c.

That bid for 561M shares is the NZO bid for all the shares it does not already own plus a couple of other bids at same price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[noodles]

I seem to recall NZO taking a stake in PPP a few years back. I hope this one works out better. Oh, and how could I forget PRC.

So 3rd time lucky?

[dodgy]

I seem to recall NZO taking a stake in PPP a few years back. I hope this one works out better. Oh, and how could I forget PRC.

So 3rd time lucky?

Hi Noodles
You are right - remember that NZOG spun off PPP in the first place. Talk about incestuous - and Zeta has some PPP as well ? Guess where all this is going.
-d

[fabs]

Hi Noodles
You are right - remember that NZOG spun off PPP in the first place. Talk about incestuous - and Zeta has some PPP as well ? Guess where all this is going.
-d

YEAH, And That's the Scary Part.

An experiment in Reverse Progress, exploring new Boundaries [ grin ]

[notie]

YEAH, And That's the Scary Part.

An experiment in Reverse Progress, exploring new Boundaries [ grin ]

Really why are NZOG increasing their ownership of Cue to 30%? So they can get one of their guys on the board?
Then what??

Their purchase of PPP was a sterling move, now this.

[Balance]

Really why are NZOG increasing their ownership of Cue to 30%? So they can get one of their guys on the board?
Then what??

Their purchase of PPP was a sterling move, now this.

No show in hell of being successful so it's a window dressing exercise to get CUE share price above 10c - make Zeta and NZOG look less stupid (than they already are).

[BigBob]

No show in hell of being successful so it's a window dressing exercise to get CUE share price above 10c - make Zeta and NZOG look less stupid (than they already are).

Sorry mate, can you just clarify for us why it won't been successful...?

I assume you think that 10c is too low... So If someone were to buy a decent chunk at that price it would be a good deal then?

[Balance]

Sorry mate, can you just clarify for us why it won't been successful...?

I assume you think that 10c is too low... So If someone were to buy a decent chunk at that price it would be a good deal then?

Haha - it's an on market bid at 1c above last traded price, and with NZOG telling all and sundry that Cue is very undervalued at 10c!

[Joshuatree]

Well blow me up my lil' scihzo NZOZ! Oiler's finished the week @65c. Go you good wee thing.

[tim23]

How's you mathematicians with your buying @ 50c

[fish]

Sorry mate, can you just clarify for us why it won't been successful...?

I assume you think that 10c is too low... So If someone were to buy a decent chunk at that price it would be a good deal then?

Looks a p0tentially good deal for all involved.

Todd will be able to sell out to so main objective achieved-hopefully nzo will get all the shares they are after.
Small shareholders wanting to get out will achieve the best price.

[skid]

Well blow me up my lil' scihzo NZOZ! Oiler's finished the week @65c. Go you good wee thing.

So those who bought to stag would be 3c in the black(assuming they were patient and could sell @ this price) congrats

[tim23]

Fish - thought nzo had already bought 19.9 pc from todd?

[babymonster]

After the capital return, how much cash does Nzo have?

[777]

Remember the ticker returns to NZO on Monday.

[fish]

Fish - thought nzo had already bought 19.9 pc from todd?
Yep
but they want to sell the rest and nzo cant go above 20% without a full takeover offer-hence importance of setting the right price so they don't pay too much for too many!

[skid]

So basically those holding are banking on a successful take over---Ferry Interesting.....they say any pr is good pr,and its certainly getting some interest atm.

Getting some new blood seems like a good thing ,if they can pull it off.

[Sharp737]

I can't see Todd selling out for the 10c price or for that matter, a lot of shareholders. Cue has huge cash reserves also. No wonder the recommendation is "don't sell". Cue would be a good asset, especially if oil prices rise again but a 10c offer to shareholders is surely an insult imo
S

[skid]

I wonder how far they would go? ..couple mill on offer @11 around 5 mill up to 12 (It appears the only reason its gone up from 9 is because of the NZO interest)

Using that logic--it could easily go back to 9ish territory if they (NZO) bail

[tim23]

Skid - you are well right but poor nzo they get bagged for making the offer and will get bagged if it does not succeed!

[digger]

[QUOTE=tim23;559084]Skid - you are well right but poor nzo they get bagged for making the offer and will get bagged if it does not succeed![/QUOTE


only half completed. To finish------they will get bagged if it does succeed as it will be stated that it only succeeded as no one else wanted it. Along with the usual what a dumb bunch wasting money etc---etc

[fish]

[QUOTE=tim23;559084]Skid - you are well right but poor nzo they get bagged for making the offer and will get bagged if it does not succeed![/QUOTE


only half completed. To finish------they will get bagged if it does succeed as it will be stated that it only succeeded as no one else wanted it. Along with the usual what a dumb bunch wasting money etc---etc

Its a great time to pick up cheap oil assets and good to choose a company with cash and assets.
I think ppp could be next

[Sharp737]

Cue generated over $7.3M in the last quarter. No wonder NZO want them

[tim23]

Gee balance must be due to comment? I like the cue play and hope they go after ppp too

[Lion]

Well blow me up my lil' scihzo NZOZ! Oiler's finished the week @65c. Go you good wee thing.

But today (midday) price is 65c up 2. Am I missing something here?

[Edit] NZX says 65c and no change.
I got my earlier info from ASBSEC.

"all good"

Lion

[skid]

But today (midday) price is 65c up 2. Am I missing something here?

[Edit] NZX says 65c and no change.
I got my earlier info from ASBSEC.

"all good"

Im pretty sure DB had it @

Lion

DB had it @65c at end on Fri (note my Sat post)

[777]

But today (midday) price is 65c up 2. Am I missing something here?

[Edit] NZX says 65c and no change.
I got my earlier info from ASBSEC.

"all good"


Lion

See my post 14902 NZO then NZOZ now back to NZO.

[tim23]

back a couple of cents today - where are you Balance?

[fabs]

PPP S/P up quite a bit and against trend.
Hoping that nzo in its present spending mood getting ready for a hefty t/o bid perhaps.
This is the forum for speculations & opinions guys, let it rip.

[dodgy]

PPP S/P up quite a bit and against trend.
Hoping that nzo in its present spending mood getting ready for a hefty t/o bid perhaps.
This is the forum for speculations & opinions guys, let it rip.

Hi fabs
No chance of a takeover by NZO of PPP or CUE will I am still breathing. I suggest Zeta is the one to watch. At least the capital crumbs will be bankable this Friday 20th.

-d

[fabs]

I suggest Zeta is the one to watch. At least the capital crumbs will be bankable this Friday 20th.
Yup, posted that about 3 odd months ago.
Meanwhile the descent has begun.
My pick was then and now that the idea is to bring the s/p down for zeta and or his associates to have a go at. it before the kitty is bare.
No sentiments like creating wealth for the s/h there.
Hope dearly i am wrong, but thats life.

[babymonster]

10mil lost HY2015, no wonder why the sp dropped yesterday...

[Hawkeye]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZO/announcements/260769

[dodgy]

10mil lost HY2015, no wonder why the sp dropped yesterday...

Hi Bm
I am surprised the Greens are not swarming all over this company - something leaks badly, and the back room overhead keeps on keeping on .
-d

[Hawkeye]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11403872

[dodgy]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11403872

Hi Hawkeye
Less exploration from "the explorers" = less backroom gravy train = more for owners/shareholders.

-d

[Daytr]

Being a hindsight Harry, shame they didn't spend the money now by increasing their stake as I'm sure they would have paid a lot less. ;-)
Not a bad result I would suggest.
I assume the reason why their gas prices aren't tied to the oil price is that its for NZ domestic supply & not export?

[fabs]

So now they spend top money on oil producing company's when they face increasing losses with Tui
while the O/P far from stable and nobody game to put a time frame on how long this may last.
Most if not all in this Co. management where handed a golden pass to earn easy money with the hard work having and still being done by others.
Like so often in cases like this, its easy come easy go and enjoy the free ride.
When this smoke & mirror exercise with Cue ends in likely failure, watch the cue S/P drop by 10-15%
The only thing they seem to be able to Manage is to throw good $s after bad.
Watch this space for another home run.
Only my opinion of course, so wait and see.

[Grimy]

We have 3 holdings of NZO. The capital repayment was made yesterday into my ANZ bank account and my wife's BNZ bank account. However, it hasn't shown in our ANZ Securities OMCA account. Not sure why that would be. Hopefully will be there early next week-I might want to buy something with it!

[babymonster]

You will need to transfer the money from your ANZ acc into your omca

[777]

We have 3 holdings of NZO. The capital repayment was made yesterday into my ANZ bank account and my wife's BNZ bank account. However, it hasn't shown in our ANZ Securities OMCA account. Not sure why that would be. Hopefully will be there early next week-I might want to buy something with it!

It will show up on Monday with Friday as the deposit date. So you will get the interest from Friday.

[777]

You will need to transfer the money from your ANZ acc into your omca


You can have dividends deposited in your OMCA a/c and they use the same account for the capital repayment.

[Grimy]

You will need to transfer the money from your ANZ acc into your omca
Sorry, I may have not been that clear. One holding does go straight to my omca account (and got the advice from Computer share that it had been deposited into that account). Just hasn't shown yet. The other two payments have shown in both BNZ and ANZ bank accounts on Friday.

[Grimy]

It will show up on Monday with Friday as the deposit date. So you will get the interest from Friday.
Thanks 777. That's what I'm hoping!

[pietrade]

So now they spend top money on oil producing company's when they face increasing losses with Tui
while the O/P far from stable and nobody game to put a time frame on how long this may last.........................


Why Oil Price Is on Its Way Back to $80-120

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/20/3711?utm_source=Russia+Insider+Daily+Headlines&utm_campaign=025db4c067-Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c626db089c-025db4c067-180828949&ct=t(Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014)

[digger]

Why Oil Price Is on Its Way Back to $80-120

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/20/3711?utm_source=Russia+Insider+Daily+Headlines&utm_campaign=025db4c067-Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c626db089c-025db4c067-180828949&ct=t(Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014)

I also read another article where it said that the oil forcasters knew what was going to happen. The price range was between 20 to 200 hundred. So somebody is going to be right when all the dust settles. I have put MHO that it will take two years from last june for all this to work throw the system. So using my two year range I think NZO is doing the right thing by buying into depressed oil companies.

[Balance]

I also read another article where it said that the oil forcasters knew what was going to happen. The price range was between 20 to 200 hundred. So somebody is going to be right when all the dust settles. I have put MHO that it will take two years from last june for all this to work throw the system. So using my two year range I think NZO is doing the right thing by buying into depressed oil companies.

Just buy oil futures - cheaper and limited & finite downside.

[BlackPeter]

Why Oil Price Is on Its Way Back to $80-120

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/20/3711?utm_source=Russia+Insider+Daily+Headlines&utm_campaign=025db4c067-Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c626db089c-025db4c067-180828949&ct=t(Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014)

Hmm - just wondering what the agenda of a website called "Russia-Insider" might be? Hi Mr. Putin ...

Whatever it might be - the findings and assumptions of the article are not quite consistent with other public available information. Obviously - nobody knows what the oil price will do in the next year or so (or even next month ...), but some of the assumptions in the article are just plain wrong.

E.g. it is assuming that oil price needs to go up soon given the high production cost of e.g. shale oil. Fact is, that the Saudis alone can flood the world at current consumption rates for another couple of decades with cheaper oil (say for $40 or less) - if that's what they wish to do.

Furthermore - I've recently seen the production costs for shale oil - and yes, there are some fields where you need a $80 to $100 break even, but from memory roughly half of the production was already viable around $60 ... and some less. Tendency: increased efficiencies making it cheaper to supply shale oil.

So - no matter what the agenda of the author of this article was - it is in my view more driven by wishful thinking, than by facts.

[Daytr]

The reduction in rig count will have little impact on North American crude production for at least 6 months imo.
I think we will see the biggest glut of crude the world has seen. There is so much Brent crude being stored off market & the main reason for the Brent price rising has been this storage trade that lifts the front of the curve i.e. spot & flattens the back. This is why Brent has outperformed WTI in recent weeks by around 15%. However that arbitrage trade will shortly be uneconomic & that's when we will see oil get smashed again in my view. Its also why the commodity banks are so bearish as they see this swap trading going through the market & they know the full extent of it. My coal is for at least sub $40 oil and perhaps close to $30 oil. The Saudis want to crush the excess production from other producing countries. I update the peak oil thread regularly if you want more info on this sort thing.

[tim23]

Better volume in last few days better price too, firming oil price at play or change in sentiment?

[barleeni]

If NZO had circa $115 million cash as noted in Dec 14 update, and gave since returned $63 million as per the capital return, and has an offer on Cue shares to a maximum of $55 million if all are taken up, wont that leave them broke?

[digger]

If NZO had circa $115 million cash as noted in Dec 14 update, and gave since returned $63 million as per the capital return, and has an offer on Cue shares to a maximum of $55 million if all are taken up, wont that leave them broke?

They will indeed if you look at only one side of the ledger. If they did get all of CUE shares they would then get the 40 million in cash that CUE holds. I think that is the basis for CUE directors rejecting the offer as the take over largely funds itself. NZO would also get all the research data that CUE holds.

[the machine]

They will indeed if you look at only one side of the ledger. If they did get all of CUE shares they would then get the 40 million in cash that CUE holds. I think that is the basis for CUE directors rejecting the offer as the take over largely funds itself. NZO would also get all the research data that CUE holds.

as previously posted, the value of CUE's research data will be quite substantial - maybe even worth more than CUE's market cap

M

[dodgy]

as previously posted, the value of CUE's research data will be quite substantial - maybe even worth more than CUE's market cap

M

Hi Machine
NZO has a snowballs show in hell obtaining much more than 10% of CUE but with ZETA they may (very, very long shot), be in with a chance. CUES' income is gas skewed so is less oil price sensitive, and in common with NZO, their management doesn't exactly fill me with confidence although CUE has a much smaller boffin footprint/overhead.
-d

[fabs]

NZO Directors selling down some of their holdings while the prices are high or have they a better for the money???

[sideline]

No, their holdings got reduced as part of the capital return, just like everybody else.
Hence the new disclosures with the holdings after the capital return.

[ziggy415]

No, their holdings got reduced as part of the capital return, just like everybody else.
Hence the new disclosures with the holdings after the capital return.
gee sideline cant you let fabs have 5 minutes of fame with his constant knocking of poor old nzo:t_up:
..better add one of these :D or mister St Mod might ban me

[tim23]

Dodgy - they already have 20 pc that's more than 10 pc already!

[fish]

Dodgy - they already have 20 pc that's more than 10 pc already!
true but I am sure dodgy means a further 10%
As far a snowballs chance in hell of more than that-I wouldn't agree-odds have to be higher than this of obtaining more than 10%-we don't know what private deals etc have been done-?remainder of todd-if this comes on the maket cue sp may drop

[dodgy]

Dodgy - they already have 20 pc that's more than 10 pc already!
Hi Tim
Sorry my error - typo. Should have read 100%. My understanding was that they were trying for a take over?
-d

[tim23]

I think they are okay with partial takeover it's not an aggressive play

[dodgy]

I think they are okay with partial takeover it's not an aggressive play

Hi tim23
You are quite right - I think they are on record as being happy with about the remaining Todd share. It just reinforces my stance that they are wallying about - not quite sure what is best but shoot at anything that may move. Argument has been proposed that AK just wants the detailed research data and scans to leverage an advantage in Taranaki but I can't see any % held in Cue providing any data availability. Cue is a very minor player Maari included. So why would the other participants give the crown jewels to an opposition company NZO, allowing enhanced future competitive block bidding.
-dodgy
Discl: Current hold NZO and Cue.

[dsurf]

[QUOTE=digger;559094]

Its a great time to pick up cheap oil assets and good to choose a company with cash and assets.
I think ppp could be next

In 2009 at the time of the GFC & after raising money at $1.50 per share would have been better! Looks like buy high very very late.

[dodgy]

Hi Guys
Looks like another top shelf governance / management decision. Buy back the punters $1.50 shares for 75c and then the market settles below $0.60. This was always on the cards. Buy backs of this nature are never that successful. About time some accountability? Maybe Digger could threaten tractor based mayhem. Threats seem to be the flavour of the day, milk to politicians and Kauri climbing. Seriously, this ship appears seriously rudderless. Where to from here?
Ideas?
-d

Discl: Current holding - too many for comfort.

[barleeni]

Slightly off topic, but I hope that's not an issue. I have been loosely monitoring the Cue on market acquisition progress, and notice that the number of buyers at $0.10 fluctuates, and is now up to 8 (refer depth on ASB Securities site). But these 'other' 7 buyers are playing a futile game are they not? Doesn't NZO's bid at $0.10 take precedence if it was placed first, or is that not how it works? i.e. wouldn't NZO's full order have to go through at $0.10 before these other 7 got a crack at any shares offered for sale at $0.10 ?!?! im confused?! (easily done mind)

[dodgy]

Slightly off topic, but I hope that's not an issue. I have been loosely monitoring the Cue on market acquisition progress, and notice that the number of buyers at $0.10 fluctuates, and is now up to 8 (refer depth on ASB Securities site). But these 'other' 7 buyers are playing a futile game are they not? Doesn't NZO's bid at $0.10 take precedence if it was placed first, or is that not how it works? i.e. wouldn't NZO's full order have to go through at $0.10 before these other 7 got a crack at any shares offered for sale at $0.10 ?!?! im confused?! (easily done mind)
Hi Barleeni
Yes 100% - first in best dressed.
Fill no 1 then the rest get their go - in theory, however I am not sure it happens every time.
-d

[Snow Leopard]

NZO gets kicked out of NZX50 at the end of next week (https://nzx.com/regulators/NZXO/announcements/261726)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: If the broker of a buyer at $0.10 has a seller at $0.10 I think he match up internally before going out to the market. So the NZO cheeky-bid may not get everything.

PPS: Don't quote me on the above - I am not totally sure of this for the ASX.

[dodgy]

NZO gets kicked out of NZX50 at the end of next week (https://nzx.com/regulators/NZXO/announcements/261726)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: If the broker of a buyer at $0.10 has a seller at $0.10 I think he match up internally before going out to the market. So the NZO cheeky-bid may not get everything.

PPS: Don't quote me on the above - I am not totally sure of this for the ASX.

Hi Paper Tiger
I agree but if the internal (off market) transfer was made by a broker - matched , then would the trade show as waiting "on market" on the buy side or be "invisible".
Regards
-d

[Snow Leopard]

Hi Paper Tiger
I agree but if the internal (off market) transfer was made by a broker - matched , then would the trade show as waiting "on market" on the buy side or be "invisible".
Regards
-d

The buy order would/could an 'ordinary' order in the queue until such time as it was completed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Xerof]

Hi Barleeni
Yes 100% - first in best dressed.
Fill no 1 then the rest get their go - in theory, however I am not sure it happens every time.
-d Yes, that applies during normal trading hours, but at the opening and closing auctions, you can queue-jump, e.g., if there is a seller at 0.10 in the auction for 100k shares, you can bid 0.11 for a lesser amount, and if everyone holds their ground until matching, you will get all you wanted at 0.10, with the balance going to the first in the 0.10 queue. Risk is, the seller disappears before the matching gets set, then you will pay 0.11 (if sellers are at that price) There is extensive explanation of how the matching works on ASX website somewhere (education?)

If a broker has both a buy and a sell, they will match internally and report it as a crossing - this is another way to queue-jump, but it is within the control of the broker (I have picked up shares on this basis quite a few times, to my surprise). I would think you would need to happen to be first in the brokers internal queue for it to occur.

[dodgy]

Yes, that applies during normal trading hours, but at the opening and closing auctions, you can queue-jump, e.g., if there is a seller at 0.10 in the auction for 100k shares, you can bid 0.11 for a lesser amount, and if everyone holds their ground until matching, you will get all you wanted at 0.10, with the balance going to the first in the 0.10 queue. Risk is, the seller disappears before the matching gets set, then you will pay 0.11 (if sellers are at that price) There is extensive explanation of how the matching works on ASX website somewhere (education?)

If a broker has both a buy and a sell, they will match internally and report it as a crossing - this is another way to queue-jump, but it is within the control of the broker (I have picked up shares on this basis quite a few times, to my surprise). I would think you would need to happen to be first in the brokers internal queue for it to occur.

Hi Xerof
Agreed.
I had forgotten that. It is something I rarely do as I have been "caught" overbidding as well. Nothing worse than not knowing what you are to pay - slim margins at best.
-d

[Bella52]

loots like the got their objective

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209613.pdf

[dodgy]

Whats happened to the old guard, Digger and Balance? Your posts are missed.
-d

[fabs]

Whats happened to the old guard, Digger and Balance? Your posts are missed.
-d

No need to comment, what is unfolding before our very eyes speaks volumes surely!

[dodgy]

Fabs
You are so right - this is so painful that a well paid few can waste so much of other peoples wealth without serious questioning.
Regards
- dodgy (OWNER/shareholder)

[barleeni]

Dodgy so you are inferring that the fall in share price is totally attributable to poor management rather than plummeting oil prices? If so that is an interesting theory. I assume then that your take on NZR's uptrend is because of great management rather than anyhow having anything to do with favourable exchange rates and said plummeting oil prices?

[fish]

Dodgy so you are inferring that the fall in share price is totally attributable to poor management rather than plummeting oil prices? If so that is an interesting theory. I assume then that your take on NZR's uptrend is because of great management rather than anyhow having anything to do with favourable exchange rates and said plummeting oil prices?

There are knockers and noggers.
It becomes very dodgy if you don't know where you belong.
Actually I like what management are doing-buying into cue cheaply is a good idea.
Giving back cash is also good
Buying more of tui cheaply is good.
Pateke will soon be increasing production which will help mitigate reduction in income due to the low oil price.
A share buyback is next on the agenda-it will give dodgy a chance to sell his shares at a better price,
Phew-I havnt even started talking about Indonesia yet.
Its far too nice a day to have anything but good thoughts.
I reckon nz is going to start to use lots of gas to generate electricity-hydro lakes are going to get very low if we don't see lots rain soon.
Kupe has just had its gas reserves revised up.

[dodgy]

Dodgy so you are inferring that the fall in share price is totally attributable to poor management rather than plummeting oil prices? If so that is an interesting theory. I assume then that your take on NZR's uptrend is because of great management rather than anyhow having anything to do with favourable exchange rates and said plummeting oil prices?
Hi barleeni
Fair point . However NZR (see my posts NZR) upswing is not only related to oil, exchange rates etc but many other factors of which management , and governance has been a good part. NZO on the other part is stuck with poor decision making at management and governance level in my opinion eg lack of sensible expansion plans - think Tripoli, poor investments - think Pike River or PPP to date , and now on a downward spiral into the sunset with desperate measures to secure further assets - including buying back shares at well over asset/ market value.
Hence my inability to endorse NZO's future after having an interest for over 20 years and watching it all unfold. Financially I wish it was otherwise, just as I think NZR is headed for, or over, $3 by next March (about 10%) . As a generalization I am not to keen on most management/governance in NZ as it is too closely linked,and treats minority owner/shareholders as a yearly inconvenience whom you caress, feed, water and put away quietly out of sight and mind. In the meantime I have to question the motivation of many decisions based on who will be the ultimate beneficiary.
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

[dodgy]

Hi Fish
Fair enough - all opinions, being just that, hold validity for their owner. Either way it is an investment , the sole purpose over time being to provide enhanced wealth. Maybe after all this time I am becoming impatient , but as you say its a great day today, and tomorrow is something to await. Have a good one.
-d

[barleeni]

In fairness you probably have much more knowledge of past management performance as I have only been following for circa 12 months, so your opinion is likely far more informed than mine. I do feel for them a touch though, as they would seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place at present. And yes I agree, NZR management seems to be doing everything right at present. My only suggestion for NZO is that I would have been very happy if they had brought back ALL of my shares for $0.75, my holding was small enough beforehand..... now its so small Its not worth selling at the current deflated value... sigh. Fortunately I do hold NZR which offsets the oil price fluctuation issues!


Hi barleeni
Fair point . However NZR (see my posts NZR) upswing is not only related to oil, exchange rates etc but many other factors of which management , and governance has been a good part. NZO on the other part is stuck with poor decision making at management and governance level in my opinion eg lack of sensible expansion plans - think Tripoli, poor investments - think Pike River or PPP to date , and now on a downward spiral into the sunset with desperate measures to secure further assets - including buying back shares at well over asset/ market value.
Hence my inability to endorse NZO's future after having an interest for over 20 years and watching it all unfold. Financially I wish it was otherwise, just as I think NZR is headed for, or over, $3 by next March (about 10%) . As a generalization I am not to keen on most management/governance in NZ as it is too closely linked,and treats minority owner/shareholders as a yearly inconvenience whom you caress, feed, water and put away quietly out of sight and mind. In the meantime I have to question the motivation of many decisions based on who will be the ultimate beneficiary.
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

[BlackPeter]

Hi team,
I noticed that NZO was always good for controverse opinions circling around each other ... and at some stage it felt like the predecessor of the (now somewhat silenced) PEB thread. However - despite a number of quite strong and quite negative views it seems there are lots of shareholders left. I guess somebody must hold these 337 million odd shares?

I plan to look a bit closer into NZO since it just for some funny reason appeared on my short list of investment candidates (based on long term P/E, analyst recommendations, income potential).

First impressions (next to a quite busy thread):
Great long term PE (well, at current SP)
Stock analysts seem to have a quite high opinion of NZO: Consensus opinion just upgraded from a straight "outperform" and now hovering between "Outperform" and "Buy".
Share price forecast are between 74 cents and 116 cents (with a median of 75 cents).
Looking into the balance sheet: 210 Million of oil & gas assets and roughly 52 Million of cash (after the capital return) - and this at a market cap of 188.6 Million (at 56 cents)?

Not so good are obviously a board and management team with a long track record of "bad luck", significant mistakes and oversights (I guess, there are not that many good boards around in NZ, but NZO made e.g. at PRC times some outstanding mistakes. Judging from that (just read the PRC book - sad story in anybodys account): hard to explain the observed board performance unless we assume they all have been intoxicated and fully asleep during the job (which I obviously don't imply - I am sure there is a very innocent explanation for the unfortunate chain of oversights). Be it as it may - it appears they have been in the past pretty useless in doing a good boards job, but they still require the usual maintenance.

Question: Any indications that they learned since PRC from their mistakes?

And yes - the oil price trend is obviously an unknown - but at this stage I am rather confident that over time it will recover ... and hey, they have significant gas reserves as well.

So I guess the question is - is this (at 56 cents) the "Buy of the century" ... or are management and board that effective in destroying shareholder value that the capital will disappear before the shareholders can benefit from it?

Any recommendations which wheels to kick before I commit to this share (or otherwise)?

[fabs]

Hi team,
I noticed that NZO was always good for controverse opinions circling around each other ... and at some stage it felt like the predecessor of the (now somewhat silenced) PEB thread. However - despite a number of quite strong and quite negative views it seems there are lots of shareholders left. I guess somebody must hold these 337 million odd shares?

I plan to look a bit closer into NZO since it just for some funny reason appeared on my short list of investment candidates (based on long term P/E, analyst recommendations, income potential).

First impressions (next to a quite busy thread):
Great long term PE (well, at current SP)
Stock analysts seem to have a quite high opinion of NZO: Consensus opinion just upgraded from a straight "outperform" and now hovering between "Outperform" and "Buy".
Share price forecast are between 74 cents and 116 cents (with a median of 75 cents).
Looking into the balance sheet: 210 Million of oil & gas assets and roughly 52 Million of cash (after the capital return) - and this at a market cap of 188.6 Million (at 56 cents)?

Not so good are obviously a board and management team with a long track record of "bad luck", significant mistakes and oversights (I guess, there are not that many good boards around in NZ, but NZO made e.g. at PRC times some outstanding mistakes. Judging from that (just read the PRC book - sad story in anybodys account): hard to explain the observed board performance unless we assume they all have been intoxicated and fully asleep during the job (which I obviously don't imply - I am sure there is a very innocent explanation for the unfortunate chain of oversights). Be it as it may - it appears they have been in the past pretty useless in doing a good boards job, but they still require the usual maintenance.

Question: Any indications that they learned since PRC from their mistakes?

And yes - the oil price trend is obviously an unknown - but at this stage I am rather confident that over time it will recover ... and hey, they have significant gas reserves as well.

So I guess the question is - is this (at 56 cents) the "Buy of the century" ... or are management and board that effective in destroying shareholder value that the capital will disappear before the shareholders can benefit from it?

Any recommendations which wheels to kick before I commit to this share (or otherwise)?

SEEMS THE ONLY WINNER SO FAR ARE TODD ENERGY.
Being able to get rid of there holding for 10 cents plus, at what NZOs management assessed at 25% above NZOs stated value.
Yes hard to tell the future for a co. who has not won the investors trust or confidence for the last 7-9years.
As for the large no. of S/H most of which would have sold out long ago, but sitting trapped in this moribund co.
Yes if you are a risk taking gambler and get in for 56 cents or less maybe worth a punt, but i would guess the majority would have paid a great deal more and short or medium term outlook not looking flash.
But hey this is just my take on the Co. best to do your own post-research over along period, been in and out of this lot also over last 20 years,
Its just sad to see a co. that had so much going for it 7 years ago has not added any value over the same period, irregardless of some setbacks after all what is management for.
Most if not all of the present lot where not instrumental in discovery and development of Kupe & Tui so had it virtually handed to them on a platter and are also not even the operators, charming run and well paid too as there was always and still is plenty to feed on in the kitty.
Wish i was all wrong on this but that is where it is at now ---STILLLL

[dodgy]

Hi Fabs
Well written - 100% on the money. All I ask right now is hack through the back room hangers on starting with Public Relations to lower overheads and preserve something while Tui is wound down and Kupe still has 14 or so years before extinction. Run it like an investment co (Knight should be better at that) whilst coat tailing on successful operators efforts by farming in if warranted. Resume divs to stabilize the share price at first opportunity. Don't expand PPP or Cue investments.
If only!! Otherwise a slow walk to the sunset and zip value for all.
Regards
-d (OWNER / SHAREHOLDER )

[Bella52]

Hi team,
I noticed that NZO was always good for controverse opinions circling around each other ... and at some stage it felt like the predecessor of the (now somewhat silenced) PEB thread. However - despite a number of quite strong and quite negative views it seems there are lots of shareholders left. I guess somebody must hold these 337 million odd shares?

I plan to look a bit closer into NZO since it just for some funny reason appeared on my short list of investment candidates (based on long term P/E, analyst recommendations, income potential).

First impressions (next to a quite busy thread):
Great long term PE (well, at current SP)
Stock analysts seem to have a quite high opinion of NZO: Consensus opinion just upgraded from a straight "outperform" and now hovering between "Outperform" and "Buy".
Share price forecast are between 74 cents and 116 cents (with a median of 75 cents).
Looking into the balance sheet: 210 Million of oil & gas assets and roughly 52 Million of cash (after the capital return) - and this at a market cap of 188.6 Million (at 56 cents)?

Not so good are obviously a board and management team with a long track record of "bad luck", significant mistakes and oversights (I guess, there are not that many good boards around in NZ, but NZO made e.g. at PRC times some outstanding mistakes. Judging from that (just read the PRC book - sad story in anybodys account): hard to explain the observed board performance unless we assume they all have been intoxicated and fully asleep during the job (which I obviously don't imply - I am sure there is a very innocent explanation for the unfortunate chain of oversights). Be it as it may - it appears they have been in the past pretty useless in doing a good boards job, but they still require the usual maintenance.

Question: Any indications that they learned since PRC from their mistakes?

And yes - the oil price trend is obviously an unknown - but at this stage I am rather confident that over time it will recover ... and hey, they have significant gas reserves as well.

So I guess the question is - is this (at 56 cents) the "Buy of the century" ... or are management and board that effective in destroying shareholder value that the capital will disappear before the shareholders can benefit from it?

Any recommendations which wheels to kick before I commit to this share (or otherwise)?

BP - you should note that no one currently in the Board or management was with the company when they controlled Pike, ie pre IPO.

[Beagle]

SEEMS THE ONLY WINNER SO FAR ARE TODD ENERGY.
Being able to get rid of there holding for 10 cents plus, at what NZOs management assessed at 25% above NZOs stated value.
Yes hard to tell the future for a co. who has not won the investors trust or confidence for the last 7-9years.
As for the large no. of S/H most of which would have sold out long ago, but sitting trapped in this moribund co.
Yes if you are a risk taking gambler and get in for 56 cents or less maybe worth a punt, but i would guess the majority would have paid a great deal more and short or medium term outlook not looking flash.
But hey this is just my take on the Co. best to do your own post-research over along period, been in and out of this lot also over last 20 years,
Its just sad to see a co. that had so much going for it 7 years ago has not added any value over the same period, irregardless of some setbacks after all what is management for.
Most if not all of the present lot where not instrumental in discovery and development of Kupe & Tui so had it virtually handed to them on a platter and are also not even the operators, charming run and well paid too as there was always and still is plenty to feed on in the kitty.
Wish i was all wrong on this but that is where it is at now ---STILLLL

Excellent summary and is, I agree, bang on the money. I've just been reading a brokers report that values the company at 74 cents and rates the company a buy. There's one very, very important factor they overlook. If you discount their DCF model for the net present value of all future corporate overhead the company has very little value at all.

[BlackPeter]

BP - you should note that no one currently in the Board or management was with the company when they controlled Pike, ie pre IPO.

True, but at least two of them started with NZO board / management well prior to the catastrophe. What did they do to prevent NZO throwing good money after bad (remember the consistent demand of PRC for additional cash injections and credit - given their continuous history of delays)?

They could have saved not just significant shareholder funds, but even the lives of the 29 ... (even if NZO was at that stage just a "cornerstone shareholder" of PRC.

Recommend to read "Tragedy at Pike River Mine" by Rebecca MacFie, though very sobering reading if you believe in the value of NZO's and PRC's boards (admittedly - at the time) ....

[barleeni]

NZO now owns 41.55% of Cue?? Is that correct? (referring to the 4th supplementary bidders statement)

I just had a look, seems it is correct.. almost 100,000,000 shares were picked up this morning by NZO. NZO's bank balance must be getting a bit dry!

[pietrade]

The CUE site news shows NZO now holding 41.95% of the shares.

[dodgy]

The CUE site news shows NZO now holding 41.95% of the shares.

Hi pietrade
Is this good? I was always of the understanding when one dog ate another dog you very rarely end up with a better dog, better fed maybe (fees) but not a better performer.

-d (owner/shareholder of both - don't ask why)

[BlackPeter]

Hi pietrade
Is this good? I was always of the understanding when one dog ate another dog you very rarely end up with a better dog, better fed maybe (fees) but not a better performer.

-d (owner/shareholder of both - don't ask why)

Despite all the negative sentiment towards NZO, and still not sure, whether they are at this price a good deal (well - I put a very small toe into the water ...):

I think a takeover of CUE would increase efficiencies for both organisations ... at least there would be an opportunity to rationalise management / administration and maybe even reduce the overall number of snouts at the board-trough.

[freddagg]

Excellent summary and is, I agree, bang on the money. I've just been reading a brokers report that values the company at 74 cents and rates the company a buy. There's one very, very important factor they overlook. If you discount their DCF model for the net present value of all future corporate overhead the company has very little value at all.

Hi Roger, could you please explain the last sentence in words that an accounting bunny like me might understand.

[dodgy]

Hi all
It would appear from Cue's latest statement that NZO has picked up most of its Cue shares from Todd Energy (which was expected) and as a complete surprise, Zeta, which also has about 20% of NZO. Which begs the questions why did Zeta sell their holding, and how much of this total affair has been initiated and driven by Zeta ? The balance of the smaller shareholders including a chinese oiler have only sold about 2% of Cue. As the offer theoretically expires on Friday will there be a selling rush or will the offer be extended in the hope of success?
- dodgy
holding both unfortunately

[the machine]

NZO picked up another 3.5m today - this might encourage them to extend the offer in the hope of cracking the 50.1%
After the offer closes then CUE sp will likely fall back to 8c or so fairly quickly - give it 6 months and NZO could initiate a share buyback @ say 8.5c, which effectively increases NZO stake and weakens the vote no camp.

Another view is that NZO do not extend the offer and the shareholders who were holding out might come with a big rush in the last hour of trading on Friday, because on Monday the sp may be lower than 10c

M

[notie]

Hi all
It would appear from Cue's latest statement that NZO has picked up most of its Cue shares from Todd Energy (which was expected) and as a complete surprise, Zeta, which also has about 20% of NZO. Which begs the questions why did Zeta sell their holding, and how much of this total affair has been initiated and driven by Zeta ? The balance of the smaller shareholders including a chinese oiler have only sold about 2% of Cue. As the offer theoretically expires on Friday will there be a selling rush or will the offer be extended in the hope of success?
- dodgy
holding both unfortunately

Zeta is one of NZOG's board members investment vehicle, so he appears to be playing both sides.
This time it is Cue, but what is his end game for NZOG?

He's the tail wagging the flea ridden NZOG dog

[fabs]

Zeta is one of NZOG's board members investment vehicle, so he appears to be playing both sides.
This time it is Cue, but what is his end game for NZOG?

He's the tail wagging the flea ridden NZOG dog

Pretty Bang-on.
And he has got his money out probably with a handsome profit to boot, with still as much if not more influence by is 20% holding in nzo over both, given the clueless rest of the board will be interesting to see who will end up better off, him or the S/Hs
Ideally would be both, RRRRIGHT????

[dodgy]

Pretty Bang-on.
And he has got his money out probably with a handsome profit to boot, with still as much if not more influence by is 20% holding in nzo over both, given the clueless rest of the board will be interesting to see who will end up better off, him or the S/Hs
Ideally would be both, RRRRIGHT????

Hi Fabs
We may well need a white Knight.
-d

[BlackPeter]

Hi Fabs
We may well need a white Knight.
-d

To save whom?

[dodgy]

To save whom?

Hi BlackPeter
I guess you must have noticed the share price decline since the 75c buyback 1:5 cancellation. NZO needs saving, unless you are happy to see your investment dwindle by the month. Needs new acreage and restore dividend . Just of note for Fabs - Zeta's original, substantial shareholder filing, showed an average of about $Aussie 12.75c if my maths is right. Selling for $A10c to NZO doesn't look like the sharpest of investments. So the plot thickens or are Zeta not as good as assumed?
- dodgy (reluctant owner/shareholder)
BlackPeter, you may ask why stay - answer, too cold a bath to take - might freeze me to death.

[fabs]

Thanks for that Dodgy,was wondering what they cost them, yes not smart.
Case of two halfwit-ed lots equal WHAT??
Well time will tell, maybe costly,certainly not looking promising atm. but then that's been consistent for far too long.

[dodgy]

Thanks for that Dodgy,was wondering what they cost them, yes not smart.
Case of two halfwit-ed lots equal WHAT??
Well time will tell, maybe costly,certainly not looking promising atm. but then that's been consistent for far too long.

Fabs
I really can't even guess the NZO / Zeta end game . I do know that NZO will really struggle to get 100% of Cue without increasing the price, and Cue never pays dividends, so NZO has a large holding expense. Cue has stable but declining income, coming in part from gas production, which is not as volatile as oil, and a few not yet proved up prospects.
Waiting and wondering
Regards
-dodgy

[babymonster]

nzo wants to delist cue? why? just a quick read with the latest ann..

[fabs]

Fabs
I really can't even guess the NZO / Zeta end game . I do know that NZO will really struggle to get 100% of Cue without increasing the price, and Cue never pays dividends, so NZO has a large holding expense. Cue has stable but declining income, coming in part from gas production, which is not as volatile as oil, and a few not yet proved up prospects.
Waiting and wondering
Regards
-dodgy

Yes Roger that,
it seems that Todd & Zeta have been the only winners so far, able to unload there holdings thanks to a pliant nzo board.
Zeta may long ago realized that Cue not going nowhere slowly like nzo cut there losses, but still left with a finger in a fast disappearing Pie.

[dodgy]

Yes Roger that,
it seems that Todd & Zeta have been the only winners so far, able to unload there holdings thanks to a pliant nzo board.
Zeta may long ago realized that Cue not going nowhere slowly like nzo cut there losses, but still left with a finger in a fast disappearing Pie.

Good morning fabs
Maybe a not so white knight may be aiming with Zeta's backing to delist Cue then NZO itself. Current managements' experience is running an investment vehicle from what I understand and very well , so with Zetas' backing (cash and experience), this may be viable for NZO (an option that is well worthy of consideration in my opinion ), as you don't need the bloated overheads in this situation - farm in or subcontract expertise as and when needed, or accountability to a mass of listed shareholders. At present (after shelling a lump for Cue's bits without a full takeover and without access to their cash) I think NZO would be a good buyout and delist prospect. At 90c per NZO share I'm in, but fat chance at that price. PPP is probably on the radar as well depending on Vietnam?
Regards
-d

[fabs]

Interesting scenario and yes anything above 75 cents would be fairyland territory.
However doubt that Zeta or rest of our beloved management, have such altruistic intentions.

But always ready for unexpected surprises.
Here is hoping!
K/R

[ziggy415]

Interesting scenario and yes anything above 75 cents would be fairyland territory.
However doubt that Zeta or rest of our beloved management, have such altruistic intentions.

But always ready for unexpected surprises.
Here is hoping!
K/R
remember Zeta managed to extract cash from nzo with only 20% holding...what chance from Cue with 40 odd %.....some of Cue,s assets in Indonesia fits with Nzo holdings also so dont, bag them just yet..lets see what happens....do agree tho that what,s best for zeta is what will happen and Nzo shareholders come second

[fish]

remember Zeta managed to extract cash from nzo with only 20% holding...what chance from Cue with 40 odd %.....some of Cue,s assets in Indonesia fits with Nzo holdings also so dont, bag them just yet..lets see what happens....do agree tho that what,s best for zeta is what will happen and Nzo shareholders come second

17 million cue bought today.
Wonder what the final tally will be?
If they drop below 10 cents can zeta buy back in and give nzo/zeta a majority position?

[sideline]

I guess 48%, maybe slightly under.

[fish]

I guess 48%, maybe slightly under.

That must give them a controlling position

[sideline]

That must give them a controlling position

I think so. You'll never get all the other shareholders voting in one block (or vote at all), so 48% should suffice.
Also I cant see any reason why Zeta couldn't mop up a few shares cheaply to bring
the combined voting power over 50%.

The interesting consequence of that would be that NZOG would then not be obliged to extend the 10c offer
(which would have been the case had they achieved 50% today).