NZ Oil & Gas (NZO) [Archive] - Page 6

zorba

28-11-2007, 11:10 PM

.
I have no idea why posters who hate NZO and dont have shares in the company keep on coming back to this thread.

These bastions of investor and trader virtue seem to be impregnated with some sort of moral outrage because the exploration drills dont allways find the black stuff -- and the share price drops or goes sideways.

As was noted in earlier posts the share price under a dollar was a steel because it gave you more or less risk free exposure to three significant exploration holes, what a steel.

And as for complaints about the senior management, by which people usually mean TR, well get a life, compared to other similar sized Australasian oil companies with assets and development efforts that are ongoing, well show us that he is overpaid !!

Maybe TR does not have the kind of persona to woo the brokers, yes those same brokers who would of course grovel and grovel and grovel again at the feet of the likes of Bob Jones and Ron Brierley, two high profile BS artists whose paper shuffling and big talk lost kiwis billions of dollars.

What ever your view you have to acknowledge that TR is tenacious and that he and the NZO team have stuck to their knitting and that they have built the only successful New Zealand oil exploration and production company of any size and longevity !!

Off course if Ron Brierly and his skollies had had their way when they tried to shaft TR (I well remember the events some 14 or 15 years ago), NZOG would have been taken over, dismembered and sold off.

Yes there are still risks attached to NZOG with respect to getting cash flows from Pike and Kupe, but by now Tui capital is repaid and the Tui project is delivering in spades.

Pike and Kupe have excellent potential and with care and dilligence these projects are set to deliver over at least the next two decades. Yes there are downside risks to these two projects, but be fair and acknowlege that equally they both have substantial upside "risks".

To appraise these upside risks, study the exploration drilling that has already taken place around the Kupe "Cental Field Area", where previous drills successfully delivered significant hydrocarbon flows outside the CFA. And as for Pike, the Indian and Chinese industrial revolutions looks set to underpin commodities well into the next decade.
.

bermuda

28-11-2007, 11:27 PM

.
I have no idea why posters who hate NZO and dont have shares in the company keep on coming back to this thread.

These bastions of investor and trader virtue seem to be impregnated with some sort of moral outrage because the exploration drills dont allways find the black stuff -- and the share price drops or goes sideways.

As was noted in earlier posts the share price under a dollar was a steel because it gave you more or less risk free exposure to three significant exploration holes, what a steel.

And as for complaints about the senior management, by which people usually mean TR, well get a life, compared to other similar sized Australasian oil companies with assets and development efforts that are ongoing, well show us that he is overpaid !!

Maybe TR does not have the kind of persona to woo the brokers, yes those same brokers who would of course grovel and grovel and grovel again at the feet of the likes of Bob Jones and Ron Brierley, two high profile BS artists whose paper shuffling and big talk lost kiwis billions of dollars.

What ever your view you have to acknowledge that TR is tenacious and that he and the NZO team have stuck to their knitting and that they have built the only successful New Zealand oil exploration and production company of any size and longevity !!

Of course there are still risks attached to NZOG with respect to getting cash flows from Pike and Kupe, but by now Tui capital is repaid and the Tui project is delivering in spades.

Pike and Kupe have excellent potential and with care, dilligence and effort, these projects are set to deliver over at least the next two decades.

Off course if Ron Brierly and his skollies had had their way when they tried to shaft TR (I well remember the events some 14 or 15 years ago), NZOG would have been taken over, dismembered and sold off.
.

And I will second that emphatically. Well said Zorba!!!

upside_umop

28-11-2007, 11:38 PM

'The company's second major asset, Kupe, which is predicted to produce 254 petajoules of gas, as well as LPG and condensate, is on track to start production in mid-2009. "Kupe will be big," said ASB's Wright, adding that when it starts production, the company's earnings will get another lift.'

I read this a couple of days ago, cant forward the link as i got it off factiva.
One ASB analyst is thinking so? Good innit

edit: here goes a link i found, its amongst the reserve upgrade.. http://realtimenews.slb.com/news/story.cfm?storyid=645058

manxman

29-11-2007, 07:23 AM

"We expect that this reserve increase will extend the production and revenue plateau for the project," AWE Chairman Bruce McKay told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting in Sydney Thursday.

Interesting. We get a 30% upgrade in reserves but only a 10% upgrade in production for this financial year. That indicates that production is currently limited by the Umuroa's oil handling capacity (which we knew) and that this situation will continue well into next year, rather than the expected production drop as the water cut increased, and water handling capacity became the limiting factor.
A big long plateau suits me fine, especially if it stays up above 40,000 barrels/day for most of the next financial year. The revenue hole between Tui peak and Kupe startup may not be very deep at all.
Mx

Unicorn

29-11-2007, 08:02 AM

Interesting. We get a 30% upgrade in reserves but only a 10% upgrade in production for this financial year. That indicates that production is currently limited by the Umuroa's oil handling capacity (which we knew) and that this situation will continue well into next year, rather than the expected production drop as the water cut increased, and water handling capacity became the limiting factor.
A big long plateau suits me fine, especially if it stays up above 40,000 barrels/day for most of the next financial year. The revenue hole between Tui peak and Kupe startup may not be very deep at all.
Mx

It is actually nearer 20% production increase in this financial year - the original forecast was for 12 months, but this one is for 11 months after the slightly delayed startup. Your figures seem overly optimistic in the context of the AWE announcement - but AWE have a history of being rather conservative with their announcements to date.

The current AWE estimate is 11 million barrels, in 11 months - which is 33,000 barrels per day. The first 4 months have been running about 12,000 barrels above the average so you would have to allow the last 4 months being 12,000 barrels below the average. Which indicates around 20,000 barrels per day by the end of the year - or the new estimate will be exceeded.

If production is down to 22,000 barrels per day through next year, that will mean about 8M barrels - 1M to NZO (up 25% on previous expectations).

If you are right and production during next year starts above 40,000 barrels per day, then this year would see around 15M barrels extracted - 1.8M to NZO. Could happen, but is rather more optimistic than warranted by any information to date. But every day that production is above 40,000 barrels, and especially on days around 50,000 barrels, the more it looks like the latest estimates will be beaten.

dsurf

29-11-2007, 12:59 PM

TUI continues to surprise on the upside - more oil & less water - think 13m barrels up to june 30 is looking far more likely than 11m.

mmm 13m x .125 = 1.625m barrels to NZO

1.625m x $80 US = 130m $US

130m $US / .75 = $NZ 173m odd

mmmmm

Dr_Who

29-11-2007, 05:37 PM

Interesting how PRC is going up while NZO sp stays the same. One would think that PRC sp movement would also benefit NZO.

Paddie

29-11-2007, 05:44 PM

Interesting how PRC is going up while NZO sp stays the same. One would think that PRC sp movement would also benefit NZO.

A very good point Dr Who.

When Pikes price was in decline, it was dragging NZO's price down.

Not to much comment the other way.

Good to see for the holders that stumped up originally, and if you brought near PRC's low, you would be doing okay.

Good luck
Paddie

Nitaa

29-11-2007, 05:59 PM

I think kudos to the ones who took up their preferential shares in Pike. Clearly the smart money appears to be moving in judging by the increase in volume.

I wouldnt be to concerned about pike not bringing up the nzo sp. nzo has jumped about 10 cents with the recent upgrade. ultimately its going to have a material effect. also since every 4 cps increase in price represents about 1 cps for nzo, it will hardly be noticable to nzo even if pike jumps 5 or 10cps in one day.

paitience looks to be rewarding the pike and nzo holders.

discl. hold nzo but not pike

Dr_Who

29-11-2007, 06:59 PM

dsurf

30-11-2007, 09:16 AM

What I meant to say is with oil prices at these levels and PRC sp moving up, there is an opportunity for PRC holders to sell PRC and buy NZO. Or NZO holders to accummulate more NZO shares. Maybe it is good for NZO to stay at these levels for a period of time so that the traders with little patiences get out and the long term holders to get in. I am seeing NZO sp staying at these levels or lower as an opportunity.

Also an opportunity for NZO holders to sell NZO & buy PRC - PRC looks like a better risk /reward IMO since the majority of capex spent - 1/2? the product already sold, takeovers everywhere, price escalating short term & most importantly for 2009 when in full production.

I think in 18 months PRC will be at least $2.50

Do you think NZO will be $2.50 in 18 months?

I hold both & far more NZO than PRC - currently regretting not re-balancing

AMR

30-11-2007, 09:32 AM

Also an opportunity for NZO holders to sell NZO & buy PRC - PRC looks like a better risk /reward IMO since the majority of capex spent - 1/2? the product already sold, takeovers everywhere, price escalating short term & most importantly for 2009 when in full production.

I'm thinking the same way as well. I was considering between a top up in PRC or buying into NZO. PRC looks more attractive and it has an excellent forward PE, the tunnelling is more than 74% done, institutional accumulation, and best of all a plan on how do benefit the shareholders with the earnings.

Lion

30-11-2007, 11:28 AM

Better hurry up, dsurf and xx. . . . PRC seems like it's having quite a run lately. Up 4 first hour this morning on heavy volume.

NZO price was 110 most of yesterday, back to 110 today, but dipped to 108 for 2 small trades at day's end y/day. VWAP was 109.94. Does that look like manipulation to anyone else?

Dr_Who

30-11-2007, 02:16 PM

NZO price was 110 most of yesterday, back to 110 today, but dipped to 108 for 2 small trades at day's end y/day. VWAP was 109.94. Does that look like manipulation to anyone else?

I am starting to think also. Tui upgrade, oil price at all time high, PRC upgrade and sp moving up, yet NZO's sp stays pretty much the same.

upside_umop

30-11-2007, 02:43 PM

im suprised the nzo price has held up this well with the lack of depth.
its positive though, as it shows people arent willing to sell much at these prices...

Viking

30-11-2007, 03:12 PM

Not willing to sell at this price, at the same time buyers aren't paying more to buy either~
:rolleyes: this stock puzzles me~

Disc: Hold NZO

Nitaa

30-11-2007, 06:52 PM

JBmurc

01-12-2007, 11:07 AM

Like many great growth stock PATIENCE is required and I like alot of other investors am thinking about buying more I just can't think of anything in else in NZ that is worth putting my hard earned into currently ----Property Development ??? NAN----NZO--- A+ NZ Growth stock

JBmurc-100,000 NZO soon

Dr_Who

01-12-2007, 05:29 PM

NZO is not very liquid at these levels. All it needs is one large buyer (maybe institution) to like the stock and they will have to pay up for a decent size. :):)

777

01-12-2007, 05:34 PM

NZO is not very liquid at these levels. All it needs is one large seller to give up on the stock and they will have to take what they can get.

Toddy

01-12-2007, 07:01 PM

NZO is not very liquid at these levels. All it needs is one large seller to give up on the stock and they will have to take what they can get.

Congratulations, you have just worked out what has been happening for the last 12 monts or so.

tim23

01-12-2007, 09:13 PM

duncan macgregor

02-12-2007, 07:35 AM

Hold on there is a problem - Duncan has not posted on NOG last couple of days = what a coincidence share price is headed North as is PRC - even the flunkies are welcome to reply, there are a few of you out there! Good GAWD TIM you really have a bad dose of MACDUNK SYNDROME. You come snapping at my heels calling me a boring old bastard one minute for repetition, then complain if i dont post anything.
I like your blue eyed enthusiasm for a share that is exactly at a similar price today as it was three years ago. I will look forward to see you play out PASS THE PARCEL hope you find something in it when the music stops. I wont be commenting on either PRC or NZO in the future as i dont hold shares in either company and only invest in Australia so please dont think that i envy your choice of investments. Best of luck. Macdunk

duncan macgregor

02-12-2007, 10:37 AM

I agree Viking. Ive long since trying to work out this little darling. If i was a day trader i would probably have got the movements wrong about 8 times out of 10.

With Pike on fire, record production rates, extremely high oil prices (who knows how high they will go), Kupe coming up very quick then i am just sitting back and watch it all unfold. NITA all you have to do in a very simplistick way is use the 30 day moving average as a buy and sell signal. Buy when it goes above and sell when it goes under.
Get into direct broking site its all free look up NZO or any other stock and never buy under and never sell over the 30 day moving average. Ta is easy to use, fundamental analysis simply is not much use with companies like NZO. Its the market that dictates the sp as you are finding out holding a share that has gone no where in three years. Macdunk
DISCL I dont do that myself but its a good starting point to TA

manxman

02-12-2007, 12:09 PM

I wont be commenting on either PRC or NZO in the future.... Best of luck. Macdunk :( at 7:35 am

NITA all you have to do in a very simplistick way is use the 30 day moving average as a buy and sell signal. Buy when it goes above and sell when it goes under.... Macdunk at 10:37 :)

Back by popular demand.

digger

02-12-2007, 12:24 PM

:( at 7:35 am

at 10:37 :)

Back by popular demand.
maxman it was closer than that. It was 635 to 937 which is 3 hours and 2 mins,not 4hours 2 mins. You have expended his self imposed silence by 33%.

Now i would ask everyone to be kind to Duncan he will be haveing severe withdrall symptoms by removing himself from both PRC and NZO. That is a big call,maybe should have weaned himself slowly off say only NZO for now. After all PIKE have not been around as long so could use a shakup be fore the blue eyed gang thinks it is to be a good investment.

temuk

02-12-2007, 02:56 PM

three cheers for Madunc

We won't have to here P the P for the 9th time!!!!!!

and now watch the share price move.

good luck in aussie dunc

Crypto Crude

02-12-2007, 04:28 PM

New Zealand Oil and Gas is Officially the most undervalued stock on the NZX...
Its not very often that the word certainty can be attached to a stock... I reckon it could be attached to NZO...
Pikes going 'gang busters' which is a good signal...
Man, you would sell the wifes kidney to buy more eah...she only needs one of em eah...:D... tell her you will be able to buy her two kidneys in the future to replace the one...:D
:cool:
.^sc

AMR

03-12-2007, 12:08 AM

digger

03-12-2007, 08:19 AM

I agree with you there SC, this stock looks really undervalued. My fingers are on the buy button but the only thing holding me back from buying my first lot of NZO is the lack of volume at the moment. There was a bit of a spike on the announcement day and a gap but the volume since then has been unremarkable. Where are all the buyers? I think it's paranoia but part of me suspects the big institutions know something we don't. Might be a good time to use a Guaranteed Stop Loss.

That is interesting and certainly a well supported feeling that the inst are in some knowledge we aren't. However i doubt it is true.Some years ago i remember a survey of sharetrader investments picks compared to inst and brokers and the sharetraders did just as well.Many an inst have sold out only to have the SP rise considerably afterwards.
What the real problem with NZO is what i have stated before. That being a preceived since of trust and accountability. People are not too accurate in the type of judgement they employ. NZO has been critised for not meeting targets which they have not,but they are probable better than the world wide industry average with TUI coming in in record time.
TR and staff bonus are probably less than industry average but to the NZ market a since of snout in the trough is what comes out of it. What i think the problem is is that if you watch people you will note that some people can bulli-sh time and again and always get away with it but other get rapped for the smallest indiscression. Why this is always so can only be put down to our group judgement ability which is always wanting. This is the point i keep asking Balance[unbalanced] and he refuses to answer.The finance companies can time and again bull-s-hit the invester and lose real money but the same invester will avoid NZO as the SP may not be garanteed to go up. It is crazy but it is the human mentality that exists.
NZo will only rise when the money is in the bank and counts for more than the SP,in the meantime it will be the company you should have sold your wifes Kidney for to buy,as Shrewd Crude so well puts it.

upside_umop

03-12-2007, 11:46 AM

New Zealand opens Taranaki blocks for exploration
Monday, 03 December 2007 09:58 (NZ Time)

New Zealand opens Taranaki blocks for exploration WELLINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The New Zealand government
said on Monday it has launched a bidding round for petroleum
exploration rights in the oil and gas rich region of Taranaki. Nine blocks totalling 3,273 square kilometres (2,034 square
miles) of the onshore Taranaki basin have been offered for
exploration, Associate Energy Minister Harry Duynhoven said. "The size of the blocks and their underlying prospectivity
has already attracted interest from a variety of local and
overseas exploration companies," Duynhoven said in a statement. The Taranaki region, on the east coast of New Zealand's
North Island, contains all of the country's commercial oil and
gas fields. New Zealand has stepped up the hunt to find new oil and gas
fields to replace for Taranaki's ageing Maui field, which has
supplied 80 percent of the country's needs and is due to run out
around 2010. In July the government awarded permits to two consortiums
who are expected to spend NZ$1.2 billion ($916 million)
searching for oil and gas in little-explored oceans southeast of
the country. The bidding round for the onshore Taranaki basin will close
on May 30.

NZO and JV partners will be happy with this.

trackers

03-12-2007, 03:56 PM

New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited NZO 3 Dec, 2007, 15:26 MINE
Taranaki Milestones
Full Text of Announcement: New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited is welcoming notable milestones in its two Taranaki-based projects, Tui and Kupe. The company is also actively assessing the on-shore Taranaki blocks offer just released by the New Zealand Government.

Today the 5 millionth barrel of oil has been produced from the Tui Area Oil Project off the Taranaki coast. Production from the field began on 30 July and this milestone has been achieved in just over four months. Recent technical modifications to the production facility have allowed daily production rates to increase to around 50,000 barrels a day. Last month proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields were upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than the estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was sanctioned.

Over the weekend the "topsides" of the offshore platform for the Kupe Project arrived at Port Taranaki from Thailand. The large steel structure will be installed on the jacket (legs of the platform), which are now in place in the Kupe Central Field, 30km off the South Taranaki coast. The Project's three production wells will be drilled over the coming months and the Kupe project remains on target for production by mid-2009.

Today the New Zealand Government opened an onshore Taranaki Basin Blocks offer. Nine petroleum blocks are being offered, representing a total area of 3,200 square kilometres. NZOG has already undertaken preliminary assessments of the blocks and is actively considering participation in the bidding round. NZOG believes there is good remaining prospectivity in the Taranaki basin.

upside_umop

03-12-2007, 05:44 PM

Nitaa

03-12-2007, 06:30 PM

In less than 5 months 5 million lovely barrels. It just keeps getting better and better

boysy

03-12-2007, 06:35 PM

This might help force NZO's hand if they need money the cheapest way might be convertion of options . Thoughts ?

Mr Tommy

03-12-2007, 08:41 PM

New Zealand opens Taranaki blocks for exploration
Monday, 03 December 2007 09:58 (NZ Time)

....Duynhoven said in a statement. The Taranaki region, on the east coast of New Zealand's North Island !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Holy Heck Batman, does everyone in Taranaki know this, they are now on the East Coast ? Damn Labour government, sneakily moving whole regions around.

Maybe Duynhoven should have been made to take a basic NZ geography test before they let him become a NZer.

the machine

03-12-2007, 09:52 PM

the pr machine is ramping up.

org were forced to repeat the announcement today as well on the asx,view kupe being included.

Installation of the jacket is complete [first big risk item accomplished] and now waiting for the topside to go on, being the second big risk item.

Once the topside is on and they start drilling the 3 production holes, then kupe is significantly downrisked = sp should climb

M

Sideshow Bob

03-12-2007, 10:24 PM

Holy Heck Batman, does everyone in Taranaki know this, they are now on the East Coast ? Damn Labour government, sneakily moving whole regions around.

Maybe Duynhoven should have been made to take a basic NZ geography test before they let him become a NZer.

He was actually born in New Plymouth and is from the Naki........!

Nitaa

03-12-2007, 11:58 PM

that would be a typo. harry was a school teacher at NPBHS around 25 - 30 years ago.

Hoop

04-12-2007, 10:20 AM

FYI

Interesting news out today.....

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- For the first time in more than 30 years, the fuel economy standards of U.S. cars and light trucks are set to rise following an agreement reportedly reached by congressional leaders late Friday.

The decision to raise the Corporate Average Fuel Economy [CAFE] standard will increase the nation's automotive mileage standard to 35 miles per gallon by 2020, with increases starting in 2011, according to news reports.
It will be the first time that mileage standards have been raised on passenger cars since 1985, when the current level of 27.5 mpg was set.
The deal is expected to pass the House of Representatives and Senate next week as part of a larger congressional energy bill, reports said.
The changes are meant partly to push automakers to introduce more gas-electric hybrid vehicles and other technologies that will improve vehicle mileage standards.
As part of the bill involving the new CAFE standards, the lawmakers agreed to extend flex-fuel credits that are used to encourage companies to build cars that run on ethanol and other cleaner-burning fuels, reports said. Automakers are said to be in favor of the credits as they can help offset costs for equipment changes. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif
Rex Crum is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

the machine

04-12-2007, 11:02 AM

Per following movements from port taranaki, the kupe topside heavylift vessel - "Paula" is due to depart for yokohama on Thursday

Thus the 2nd big item for kupe is about to be derisked

Thu 06/12 06:00 PAULA PSA heavy lift OUT bangpakong-thailand >> yokohama BW2/DEPARTURE 151 8397m 6.2 R

M

Dr_Who

04-12-2007, 01:19 PM

Whats peoples thoughts on NZO's interest in these blocks.
Will they be after a bigger slice of the action than their 12.5% with the JV?
I'd like to see a 20-30% myself...greater drilling costs, but greater rewards.

I would assume this will be view positive. NZO have experience in this area. I also like the fact that NZO sp is moving up slowly instead of shape movements. Steady climb means the sp may stay up.

duncan macgregor

04-12-2007, 03:25 PM

I would assume this will be view positive. NZO have experience in this area. I also like the fact that NZO sp is moving up slowly instead of shape movements. Steady climb means the sp may stay up. DR WHO, Witout making comment on the company it is a very simple thing to make money with a beginners guide to TA. Fundamental analysis has proved useless over the last three years with this and other like companies. Lets look at the 30 day moving average over the last 12 months as a beginners guide to this and PRC using it as the buy and sell trigger with a couple of percent leeway.
1, OCT 2006 buy at 87c showed a sell dec 2006 at $1-05 = 20.68% profit
2, Buy march 2007 at 87c showed a sell aug 2007 at $1-20 -37.93% profit.
3,Buy oct 2007 at $1-03 showed a sell nov at $1-03 = loss in brokerage.
4, Buy dec 2007 at $1-08 sell still to come.
PRC shows up with a good gain buying in the mid eighties still to sell. That is a very simple form of TA that works a treat on the ASX miners. I dont bother looking at fundamentals other than is the company in profit and likely to remain so. Understanding the market is far more important than waste time pouring over that guff. Macdunk

Nitaa

04-12-2007, 03:28 PM

Your wrong DM.

Advice, concentrate on your own stock movements rather than ones that have no interest.

Wait for it.....

duncan macgregor

04-12-2007, 03:50 PM

Your wrong DM.

Advice, concentrate on your own stock movements rather than ones that have no interest.

Wait for it..... NITA, You have stood still with your investment over the last three years. I only gave you a beginners look into a very simple form of technical analysis that showed you a fifty pc return in just over one year. Look up PRC then see how far in front you might have been. I only wish someone would have opened my eyes to how the market really works years ago before i worked it out myself. Look forward to meeting you on the 15th give me a blast then. Macdunk.

Dr_Who

04-12-2007, 04:17 PM

I disagree with you DM. The market usually value and buys companies based on future value, not current value. The short term flutuation of the SP does not indicate the true potential value of the company.

I am sure there are alot of mining firms in Aussie that are producing and paying a dividend. Those firms are fully priced at a much high price than PRC is trading at currently. It all comes down to pricing.

I believe PRC is under valued at 85 cents. I bought some in the IPO at $1 and will top up when the time is right.

LOL...

Sorry, I am a fundamental value investor. I dont look at moving averages, but I do look at charts. I did say PRC was under value and good buying when it was at 85 cents. :) The truth is in the pudding.

Nitaa

04-12-2007, 04:31 PM

DM. If you think you know it all know then i strongly advise you to tread with caution. You could wake up one day and wonder what happened to your TA, 30 day moving average, trailing stop losses yadi ya. Show me in 15 years time that you managed to beat the indexes time and time again. Forget about the last few years because if you had thrown a dart at a dart board you still would have beaten most fundies. Why, because they have a big chunk of their investements in the non performaing stocks over the past few years.

DM, i have seen literally 1,000's of people that give me the same speil as what you are doing now. I can honestly tell that their luck runs out sooner or later. Whether its on the futures market, day traders or whatever. One thing is that i caution them with, is that they need to test their thoery. Run your theory doing 1,000's and millions of simulations on a computer. Once you have done that then you can put it into live transaction. again, a word of warning. a computer doesnt take into the emotional element. This is where a many fall down as once they are in a certain predicament then there system is more prone to fall apart.

I am happy to debate your issues on the thread provided but you insist on bring it to these threads. You only give us data on a few selected stocks over the past year or so. Sorry MD, at present it seems like that you wont know if you are clever or just lucky because of the lacl of data.

There is only one person that i have seen on these forums that i would have any respect for TA. That is Phaedrus because he/she uses a system and appears to take the emotions out of investing. Whether Phaedrus makes is doing well compared may be another matter.

The challenge i point out to you is to put up your claims on the thread provided. Show us raw data, your system etc. If you think that its too secret thats fine as well. I cant reiterate that people like you were a dime a dozen during the eigthies. School students borrowed $1,000 or $2k on their credit card only to turn it into tens and even over $100,000. There were competition among schools to see how much money they could make. Some of the figures were staggering. Of course that is history and many of those people were left with nothing.

The dhallenge if you decide to accept it is show the raw data even with the benefit of hindsight to show how good your system is. Don,t waist your time giving us a few selected stocks that you have made 10 baggers etc.

shane_m

04-12-2007, 05:29 PM

wow :/

Its all in the Time Line Theory.

duncan macgregor

04-12-2007, 07:20 PM

wow :/

Its all in the Time Line Theory. Your on to it SHANE its giving people ideas that they might not ever have thought about. When a person has a closed mind its pointless saying anything. I used to tell my apprentice boys, that we do it this way up to the point you show me a better way, then we change to your way. Investing is like that, you do people a favour by letting them see other ways of doing things. The brain dead never bother looking they are to busy criticizing to even think about it. I only showed them a method where they could have made money on a company that has gone sideways for three years. Macdunk

tim23

04-12-2007, 09:43 PM

Get over yourself - don't you get it? most of us are bored with your blue eyed brigade, 10 bagger boring, 30 day ma dribble

PS You promised to stop commenting on NOG & PRC over the weekend, you broke that within hours, how we can believe your other tales of constant success?

AMR

05-12-2007, 12:21 AM

This years Auckland event should be v. interesting then...

Of course, a time tested method of using MA crossovers with other indicators (i.e volume and price acceleration) also works well.

the machine

05-12-2007, 01:59 AM

so on wednesday kupe topside is shifted onto the teras transporter heavy lift barge, then installed onto the jacket.

be good to see it all and hopefully nzo will have some happy snaps

M

Kropotkin

05-12-2007, 02:27 PM

Get over yourself - don't you get it? most of us are bored with your blue eyed brigade, 10 bagger boring, 30 day ma dribble

I'm bored with quality of your posts as well tim23, but I'm sure others won't agree with me.

But that's the beauty if this forum isn't it?
Macdunk is entitled to his 'blue-eyed, pass the parcel' broken record (and let's not forget the odd gem buried in there somewhere) and you're entitled to your shrill denunciations.

This thread would be far worse off without Macdunk's provocations and you rising to the bait :D.
At the very least it's entertaining.

manxman

05-12-2007, 03:36 PM

This thread would be far worse off without Macdunk's provocations and you rising to the bait :D.
At the very least it's entertaining.

A point of interest: NZO has the biggest ratio of replies to views for any share on the NZX forum.

Does this mean that Noggers are
exceptionally knowledgeable:)
exceptionally curious:confused:
exceptionally garrulous:eek:

or is it just Macdunk provoking everyone

Mick100

05-12-2007, 04:25 PM

A point of interest: NZO has the biggest ratio of replies to views for any share on the NZX forum.

I guess that explains why macdunk post his rubbish about his nickle miners and "new" investment strategies on this thread rather than the appropriate threads on the ASX forum or investment stategies forum - he confines his posting to threads that have the highest readership regardless of topic.
.

Mick100

05-12-2007, 04:31 PM

At the very least it's entertaining.

That's what I used to think about macdunks posts back in 02-03 when he started bombarding these forums with his nonesense - after 5 yrs, his posts no longer provide any entertainment value to me - they are just plain boring and disruptive of any intelligent discussion that may take place.
.

digger

05-12-2007, 05:45 PM

Now steady on boys and girls. If you do not stop baggering Macdunk he will throw another wobbley and walk out of this forum for another 3 hours.

duncan macgregor

05-12-2007, 06:56 PM

Now steady on boys and girls. If you do not stop baggering Macdunk he will throw another wobbley and walk out of this forum for another 3 hours. Carefull digger he might come back and kick you all in the chook house just to see the fun. I enjoy the banter digger some of them behave like school kids which is rather amusing. The moment i walk out they ask for a comment then bag me for replying. The funny thing about it all is they cant except reality, i might have a field day with my new identity at PASS THE PARCEL TIME. MACDUNK

bermuda

05-12-2007, 08:17 PM

Carefull digger he might come back and kick you all in the chook house just to see the fun. I enjoy the banter digger some of them behave like school kids which is rather amusing. The moment i walk out they ask for a comment then bag me for replying. The funny thing about it all is they cant except reality, i might have a field day with my new identity at PASS THE PARCEL TIME. MACDUNK

MacDunk,
We will have to meet sometime. You have a wicked sense of humour. Are you interested in joining me and a few others in a takeover bid? We need a bit of experience.
Cheers.

Nitaa

05-12-2007, 08:35 PM

Dr_Who

06-12-2007, 01:37 AM

MacDunk,
We will have to meet sometime. You have a wicked sense of humour. Are you interested in joining me and a few others in a takeover bid? We need a bit of experience.
Cheers.

ROFL.. this is a joke right? You clowns make me laugh. Very entertaining.

duncan macgregor

06-12-2007, 07:34 AM

Hold on Macca. NZO set to fly. up nearly about 13% from a few weeks ago. Pike on fire and up nearly 30% from a few weeks ago. Meanwhile some of the aussie stocks are getting hammered. Oil prices have decline 10% in recent weeks but not NZO.

People talk about averaging down. Unfortunately i will have to average up It is all about time NITA. You did really well for two years then you are still stuck at the same level you were at three years ago. Your options you watched go to over 30c then drop back to 8c. You condemn me for pointing out the reality of your incompetence to understand the market. You still think you are so right that everyone with an opposing viewpoint must be wrong. I keep an open mind when i see you do something easier or better than i do i wont hesitate to follow suit. It will be interesting to meet you at the get together on the 15th. Macdunk

Nitaa

06-12-2007, 07:50 AM

duncan macgregor

06-12-2007, 08:36 AM

lol. you see my friend, I actually sold a decent parcel at 30.5 cps. These were the same ones you sold for 9 cps. Ill also let you in a little secret my friend.. i didnt use a 30 day ma either.. but then how could i.. you hadn't invented it then.

NITA, So you proved that you are not brain dead after all by selling a parcel. Lets have your analysis on the remainder. I said right at the beginning that i valued them at 5c taking into account the risk factor i now have downgraded that to worthless. At this moment in time what would you pay for them,? or do you think when the music stops the parcel will be found empty?. You did say in a previous post that you would get your day trading wrong 8 times out of 10 with NZO. I gave you the 30 day moving average as your TA buy signal Which would have made you a much larger profit than buy and hold. You then ridicule a young fella for showing you a better way saying he invented the 30 day ma buy signal etc etc. I think you must be quite an old lady set in your ways its time you kicked your heels up old girl you are starting to show your age. I would lay odds that i pick you straight away at the get together as the famous NITA. Macdunk

Nitaa

06-12-2007, 09:10 AM

Not only did i sell the parcel at 30.5 cps share where you sold out at 9 cps i also sold 2 other parcels for a tidy profit. Even if i did sell one lot at 10. cps a few months ago.

Where do i start little fella. Well let me tell you that i consider the options more than worthless at present. quite a bit actually but they may end up worthless. If the options hit 5.5cps by Jan 15 under the current economic conditions i will be all over it like a rash. If i had taken your theory at the beginning saying the options were worth no more than 5 cps then i would not have made about 350% on my options (assuming our free options were worth about 8 cps when they got allocated). That is another reason why i would never take your advice.

I have decided not to use the 30 day ma as i thought you might have a petent on it and i do not wish to be sued. Of course you are being ridiculed and do you know why? you change your system more times than i change my panties thats why. Its also why no one takes you seriously and i and others love to egg you on. No you havent shown me a better way md. you are showing me a way that you use to justify your buying decision as your other theories including the macdunk elliot wave timeline stop loss flip a coin theory isnt working.

At the end of the day, your theories have more holes in it than swiss cheese. Im not gointg to tell you how to gamble on the sharemarket but if you want some advice on investing then i may even give it to you for free.

ps. I may be older than you macca but i still have my marbles

gulf

06-12-2007, 09:13 AM

be careful Mad Duck the options might end up in the money !!!!!!!!!!!!

Nitaa

06-12-2007, 09:28 AM

I hereby announce that there will be no more bad comments made to md on nzo..but please dont make me go back on my word

Toddy

06-12-2007, 09:54 AM

ps. I may be older than you macca but i still have my marbles

Now I'm starting to understand why you guys are in such a rush. I've got the luxury of time on my side and can therefore sit back and watch as NZO's projects mature into cash cow's.

However, I don't understand why you are fighting like school children.

dsurf

06-12-2007, 10:32 AM

posts on this page before this one = 13
posts on NZO that are in any way original = 0
Times I have heard macD p the p line 20+
Times I have heard nita say he has sold nzood at 30.5 = 3+
Useless posts on this page now = 14

guess that means we are in a very boring, lifeless, directionless market

duncan macgregor

06-12-2007, 10:35 AM

Havent seen a single stock to get into from Maca for months apart from MRX...which is doing worse than NZO (15.5 ---> 12.5c)

comeon maca, we know you are losing touch mate SECTOR SURFA I thought you might be interested to know MRX is in a trading halt at the moment. Might end up with egg on the face, but this is exactly why i bought them. I expect when the announcement comes out before trading opens on monday you might like to pat me on the back for putting you on to it. Thats what this is all about its picking what happens in tomorrows market that counts dont get bogged down bleating about yesterdays market. Appologies to NZO holders, only replying to what was written previously on the thread. Macdunk

STRAT

06-12-2007, 11:02 AM

I guess that explains why macdunk post his rubbish about his nickle miners and "new" investment strategies on this thread rather than the appropriate threads on the ASX forum or investment stategies forum - he confines his posting to threads that have the highest readership regardless of topic.
.Hi Mick, I always go fishing where I know the fish are going to bite too :D:D:D

AMR

07-12-2007, 01:42 PM

Over the weekend the "topsides" of the offshore platform for the Kupe Project arrived at Port Taranaki from Thailand. The large steel structure will be installed on the jacket (legs of the platform), which are now in place in the Kupe Central Field, 30km off the South Taranaki coast. The Project''s three production wells will be drilled over the coming months and the Kupe project remains on target for production by mid-2009.

Can someone in the know tell us how risky is this? I don't know what a jacket is but I have a feeling that the market may be waiting for this to be complete before the share price continues it's rise.

digger

07-12-2007, 02:19 PM

Can someone in the know tell us how risky is this? I don't know what a jacket is but I have a feeling that the market may be waiting for this to be complete before the share price continues it's rise.

From many years on the market,i can say NZO and PRC are doing real well given that it is christmas shopping time. Things will pick up early new year.Do not think the jacket thing even if successful will have enought effect to remove the christmas sell.Happens ever year.

the machine

08-12-2007, 08:36 PM

port taranki website shows the kupe topside moves at 1200 sunday

Sun 09/12 12:00 TERAS TRANSPORTER WEND project cargo OUT shift berth >> NA /R+M 100m 0 0

M

manxman

09-12-2007, 06:07 PM

From many years on the market,i can say NZO and PRC are doing real well given that it is christmas shopping time.

Never thought of it that way but sure enough, just as I was about to top up on PRC, Mrs Manxman ("Lady of Mann" to the purists) went out and bought me a brand new tractor funded straight out of the "Make Mrs M a Rich Lady" fund. Hey, a real good Christmas present, bless her, but it reinforces Digger's point about shareprice getting no retail support until Santa is done and dusted. I really wanted a new heading bitch (can you say that on this forum? )

And we got through the whole weekend without some P*** who didn't have a date on Saturday night abusing McDunk or AR (I know you can't say that on this forum)

There's a sort of feel good factor coming in on PRC and even NZO. The spirit of Christmas or the spirit of Mammon?

Mx

Dr_Who

10-12-2007, 10:14 AM

Looks to me like NZO has push through the resistance of $1.10. If it stays up at these levels, it should move further north. Nice upwards graph movement. Any chartist out there can give us a view? :)

Someone has finally woken up to the fact that NZO is cheap? Maybe!

boysy

10-12-2007, 12:51 PM

buyers outnumbering sellers a few large trades going through today has someone finally woken up ?

Dr_Who

10-12-2007, 12:55 PM

It feels like an insitutional buyer buying on the market. :) They are having to pay up to get stock.

boysy

10-12-2007, 01:07 PM

Heres hoping and hopefully some news from Kupe soon

digger

10-12-2007, 01:43 PM

This looks very good to me. Large buyers pushing up SP when sellers usually dominate with christmas shopping. Also SP rising aginst direction of general market. The market is usually best in second half of Jan so maybe crack 1-30 by jan end if current trends follow past market patterns.

Toddy

10-12-2007, 01:57 PM

Yes, what makes this look good is that the price movement is on the back of limited news. This behaviour is unusual for NZO. I'm picking that this in the start of a good run that will last for some time.

Dr_Who

10-12-2007, 02:28 PM

Whats interesting is that both PRC and NZO both are having a good run. Must be an upgrade for NZ energy commodity stock?

boysy

10-12-2007, 02:40 PM

is it a case of follow the leader with the ASX prices higher than NZX perhaps its time we catch back up ?

AMR

10-12-2007, 03:08 PM

We finally have the breakout today! I have been waiting and waiting for the volume to come along and at last we are getting some good buyers.

If this breakout pattern looks familiar, this is what PRC did back when it was 85c and started the nice uptrend.

digger

10-12-2007, 07:44 PM

The buyers are here quite cunning. If you wanted a stake and did not want to move the market too much,what better time to move than just before christmas. There will be a lot of small holders and not so small that need a few dollars just now,so this is a good buyer move.
Now on the other hand it says the SP will be very strong in Jan,so after a long wait the good times are finally coming.That volumn today looks like someone is operating under a definite plan. Maybe my 1-30 by end of jan will be too light after todays movement.
Merry christmas to all posters.

blockhead

10-12-2007, 09:00 PM

No sign of anyone being too over confident with the od's just yet though.

tim23

10-12-2007, 09:10 PM

Good point - I guess the clock is ticking but I expect them to have at least 1 more run to high double figures before expirey.

boysy

10-12-2007, 09:25 PM

perhaps an announcement this week about kupe could help keep up momentum against market ?

the machine

10-12-2007, 10:04 PM

kupe topside must have fitted ok as Teras transporter on way back

Tue 11/12 13:00 TERAS TRANSPORTER WEND -- IN >> NA /R+M 100m 0 0

M

Lion

11-12-2007, 05:45 AM

Speculation on one of the Aussie boards to explain yesterday's market action of NZO & PPP up on big volume yet AWE down.

Maybe AWE is going to make a play for the other two.

Makes sense to me. Next question is how high would they go.

Next question, what about the options, which can make a t/o difficult (could have been part of the plan when issuing them)

I'm not sure how these things usually work, maybe someone else can comment. Would they have to make the heads price offer high enough so option holders would be happy to exercise early? Which of course would bring in an extra wodge of cash that they would be buying. That would make an offer of at least $1.60 seem reasonable.

Then they have to get major shareholders TR and AT to agree too.

Just speculation, I repeat, but that's part of the fun of these chat sites.

Where's McDunk lately?

Nitaa

11-12-2007, 07:06 AM

There is definately something cooking. After using my paitience, wait and hold technique, it looks like the smart money likes nzo and especially ppp.

bermuda

11-12-2007, 08:05 AM

Time to reflect again on the statement made by Salisbury about the Board's ambition to grow the company through aquisition.

arjay

11-12-2007, 08:40 AM

acquiring Swift's Rimu assetts would make sense if NZO is contemplating some of the on-shore blocks on offer.

duncan macgregor

11-12-2007, 09:10 AM

Its all speculation what NZO might get up to. The sp should by fundamental standards be much higher than it is at the moment. NZO should have its highest sp ever at this moment in time. Its definately has not been a zombie buy and hold share over the last three years, but previous to that had an excellant run. The only people to make money over the last three years has been the traders who were smart enough to get out near the top. The question is will they look after the shareholders or wont they?. My view is they will spend the lot in further oil exploration keeping the trough nicely filled up as long as they can for them selves.
We all know what they have got, which is not an accurate reflection on the sp, which is to low for what it is, simply because of investor distrust. I would say the options wont be worth converting, the company no longer requires the money. New exploration and results will take years to eventuate, you are investing in the share price rise and fall only at the moment. They will buy in to new ventures with the profits you lot are only a means to the end, thats the harsh reality of any oil explorer. Macdunk

STRAT

11-12-2007, 09:16 AM

you lot are only a means to the end, thats the harsh reality of any oil explorer. MacdunkThats the harsh reality for any public company Duncan. Not just Oilers.

Does this mean Ive been hooked and the line will go tight any second?:eek::D:D:D

Toddy

11-12-2007, 09:33 AM

New exploration and results will take years to eventuate, you are investing in the share price rise and fall only at the moment. They will buy in to new ventures with the profits you lot are only a means to the end, thats the harsh reality of any oil explorer. Macdunk

Righto Mcdunk. I've got another child on the way and want to test your theory. I'm going to buy them a chunk of NZO when they are born with firm instructions that this is a 21st present. In 21 years time they are either going to call their father a silly old man or spend many hours pondering over where I got my wisdom from.

duncan macgregor

11-12-2007, 09:44 AM

Thats the harsh reality for any public company Duncan. Not just Oilers.

Does this mean Ive been hooked and the line will got tight any second?:eek::D:D:D Only if you latch on or as i said to the apprentice boy IF YOU DONT STOP RUNNING ROUND IN CIRCLES I WILL NAIL YOUR OTHER BLOODY FOOT TO THE FLOOR. Some of the people Strat turn it into a personal insult to say anything about the company. See you sat at the social it should be fun, i expect an earbashing from a few NZO deciples. Macdunk

STRAT

11-12-2007, 09:58 AM

i expect an earbashing from a few NZO deciples. MacdunkI suggest a disguise. Perhaps a Santa suit. No one would recognise you then :D:D:D

By the way have you noticed Nitas avatar? Im looking forward to seeing her sitting on your knee. :eek:

blockhead

11-12-2007, 10:26 AM

By the way have you noticed Nitas avatar? Im looking forward to seeing her sitting on your knee. :eek:

I think that is Nitas Grandaughter, might not be so enticing to have Nita on the knee

duncan macgregor

11-12-2007, 10:47 AM

I think that is Nitas Grandaughter, might not be so enticing to have Nita on the knee C-MON you guys you will have NITA scared to front up with all this talk. I will be there to face the music nothing like a santa bag with a lump of concrete in it to defend yourself. The only problem is i dont beleave in make beleave might delegate the santa job to my mate STRAT. I have arranged with my loved one to drop me off and pick me up at 8.30 after we go to a third birthday party lunch in whangarei. Looking forward to playing PASS THE PARCEL with my NZO friends so might bring my violin along to get you all in a good mood. Macdunk

Dr_Who

11-12-2007, 10:54 AM

The buyer is still buying today and paying up for stock.

tim23

11-12-2007, 12:30 PM

The options will be worth converting if the share price is North of say $1.60, gee Duncan you say some silly things at time - except when I agreed with you over Robbie Deans missing out!

duncan macgregor

11-12-2007, 12:47 PM

The options will be worth converting if the share price is North of say $1.60, gee Duncan you say some silly things at time - except when I agreed with you over Robbie Deans missing out!TIM, The options will be worth converting if the share price is above $1-50. I think the good doctor Who made the silliest statement of all when he said [quote] [THE BUYER IS STILL BUYING TODAY AND PAYING UP FOR THE STOCK]. Hey doc whats up?. Macdunk

dsurf

11-12-2007, 01:05 PM

pendulum coming back - down to $1.10?? or will PRC support?

Crypto Crude

11-12-2007, 06:53 PM

$1.50 for the options will still result in losses to Option holders who purchased on market options, but not the case for those with free options...$1.50 does signify conversion price, losses can be reduced up until the point where OD buy price is reached which is breakeven...
eg bought OD's for 8cents... breakeven is $1.58
The upside is 100% returns for ever time your OD buy price is above $1.50+OD buy in price....
Depending on what buy price OD's were at the time depends on what breakeven point is and is different for all investors.....
Tim, you said MD says silly things sometime, well you were just that in the same post you accused him of being....:D
:cool:
.^sc

tim23

11-12-2007, 07:57 PM

You didn't read his post properly or my reply in that case; I said say $1.60 - another words about $1.60; he implied the options were worthless. Its nice to know Duncan sill has a few flunkies left though SC so good on you for defending him!

Crypto Crude

11-12-2007, 11:45 PM

Im not intentionally defending Mackdunk... I explained exactly how the Options work so that you dont make the same mistake again Tim...
...eerrrhhhhh, how do I say this.....
....What I should have said was, your posting is sometimes silly, and non informant...
Just how 'Far North' of 160c do you think conversion price is?:D
Man, If I start making mistakes like that then Id be ripped to shreads....
ITs no problem if you get it wrong, BUT in this numbers game you should be getting the numbers correct if you want to post them...Balance should be listening here aswell...
...
No offence intended Tim... We all believe in this company apart from 1 or two... SO, good on you for making what I think you said was long term profits off this one... Id be happy as with 40% PA as Nita and many other long terms holders have returned...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude

11-12-2007, 11:46 PM

anyway,
Anyone want to make any predictions of when NZO will hit $1.30 again?
:cool:
.^sc

corran

12-12-2007, 04:18 AM

anyway,
Anyone want to make any predictions of when NZO will hit $1.30 again?
:cool:
.^sc

I reckon NZO will hit $1.30 once the next quarterly cashflow report is released.... so around the end of January?

digger

12-12-2007, 07:36 AM

[QUOTE=Shrewd Crude;176585]anyway,
Anyone want to make any predictions of when NZO will hit $1.30 again?
:cool:
.^sc[/QUOTE

i already did about a couple of pages ago. That is three informed comments ago and about 20 rubbish ones concerning DM.
People seem to be underestimating the signifance of a share rising just before christmas. It is a especially strong positive sign. I remember way back after the 1987 crash how when stocks were falling NZRefinning went against the trend. Later on when the market finally settled and very slowly recovered[about 10 years] it was always NZ refinning leading the way. On a smaller scale the same thing happens two weeks out from christmas.
I think NZO held up very well yesterday given the big buyer pulled out[I detect that from the much smaller volumn]. At worst my guess is the SP will fall to about 1-12 before going again to about 1-18 just before christmas,then 1-30 by end of jan.

brucey09

12-12-2007, 08:10 AM

senor Digger and others. the main reasons NZO is undervalued are
1. the NZ public is very risk adverse - this is in part due to the very slow sharemarket recovery from the 87 crash in NZ compared with the rest of the world, the demise of many finance companies (higher interest at higher risk), and the "PC" wishy washy low risk environment - risk and excellence is very rarely encouraged - except for your kiwisaver. Reward is progressively taxed.
2.The company's poorly defined "future strategy" - you refer to NZ Refining - note their future fuels project etc.
3. Aust. and worldwide shareholders are not that interested because they have plenty more options in their own local situations.
FELIZ NAVIDAD to you all

the machine

12-12-2007, 11:17 AM

looks like a lot of pain today re sp

where is the news re kupe topside installation and some nice photos showing same

M

Dr_Who

12-12-2007, 01:03 PM

I love how some people panic on a few cent drop on the sp... LOL. I also love people like McDunk who talks down the sp so people like us can pick up some cheap stock. :D

sideline

12-12-2007, 01:56 PM

looks like a lot of pain today re sp

where is the news re kupe topside installation and some nice photos showing same

M

on a general down-market-day like today the good news could be just wasted or worse,
attract unwelcome attention from those who believe the market crash is imminent.
Better to wait until Mr Market is in a better mood.

The price is holding up reasonably well anyway and an occasional consolidation of gains
can be healthy.

Toddy

12-12-2007, 02:19 PM

Whoever is accumulating NZO must be laughing all of the way to the bank. After a couple of days buying the price firmed and the punters were talking. Only for the international markets to go all soft and offer another opportunity to accumulated more NZO at bargain prices.

Its time to start talking about NZO down at the xmas drinks again. I know that your mates will all say that you said the same thing two/three/four xmas's ago but this time you are talking cash, not project plans.

trackers

12-12-2007, 02:20 PM

I love how some people panic on a few cent drop on the sp... LOL. I also love people like McDunk who talks down the sp so people like us can pick up some cheap stock. :D

Yup, noticed that a lot with NZO posters over the last year or so... Every tiny little movement in SP that happens HAS to be explained by something - lack of investor confidence, future earnings, even the odd conspiracy here and there...

Pretty amusing... Its a down day and NZO's lost a couple cents, who cares! Hopefully the up/down's continue for a bit, I'm enjoying trading in and out of it atm

Toddy

12-12-2007, 02:48 PM

And guess what stock will be in the top five picks for the 2008 investor competition.

You guessed it, NZO.

I'm also picking that more than one broker out there will select NZO also.

dsurf

13-12-2007, 10:45 AM

bodes well for buy - out or increased valuations. See reuters story

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSHKG30772220071212

dsurf

13-12-2007, 10:49 AM

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the most active investment bank in energy markets, raised its price forecasts for crude oil for next year, the bank said in its outlook for 2008.

Goldman now expects U.S. crude (CLc1> to average $95 a barrel in 2008, up $10 from the previous projection, and said a cyclically stronger market in the second half of next year could push the price to $105 by the end of 2008.

bermuda

13-12-2007, 11:07 AM

bodes well for buy - out or increased valuations. See reuters story

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSHKG30772220071212

Thanks dsurf.Good article and particularly relevant to a resource called coking coal.

PRC will be getting the attention of a lot of buyers once production gets closer. The two Indian companies did their homework first.

As Newcastle's problems get worse ( the expansion wont be finished for 4 years ) then PRC will really come into further favour.

In the meantime oil goes to $US94.

LIO

13-12-2007, 10:08 PM

Are there any announcements anticipated over the coming week or so ? Or are things likely to be pretty quiet on the NZO front over Xmas ? At least until the quarterly activities report at the end of Dec.

zorba

15-12-2007, 11:59 PM

Next Quarterly Report will be at end of January, followed by half yearly report at end of February.

Nymex crude was up above US$94 on Friday but ends week at approx US$91 / barrel

In the meantime IEA is forcasting higher demand next year ..... guess the possible US slow down / recession could change that .......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aKQM7KdkOI74&refer=energy

Oil Gains After IEA Raises Demand Forecast Amid Stockpile Drop

By Eduard Gismatullin

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose after the International Energy Agency raised it forecast for oil demand next year and said industrialized nations' stockpiles had fallen to below their five-year average.

The IEA, an adviser to 27 nations, said OECD inventories fell 22.4 million barrels in October, led by ``a sharp decline in European products.'' The agency raised its forecast for global 2008 crude demand by 115,000 barrels a day to 87.8 million barrels. That's 2.5 percent more than this year.

``Oil is higher on the IEA report about the drop in stockpiles,'' said Julian Keites, a broker at Fimat International Banque SA in London. ``The market is testing higher prices in accordance with the IEA report.''

Crude oil for January settlement rose as much as $1.13, or 1.2 percent, to $93.38 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was as $93.07 at 10:43 a.m. in London. Oil has risen 5.7 percent this week.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members' fuel stockpiles in October fell to 52.6 days of cover to meet demand ``with a similar picture emerging in November,'' the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report.

Brent crude for January settlement rose as much as $1.54, or 1.7 percent, to $93.66 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract, which expires today, was at $93.07 a barrel at 10:43 a.m. in London. The more actively- traded February contract rose 1.1 percent to $92.94 a barrel.

The IEA said today there are signs of rising supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in December. OPEC, which pumps more than 40 percent of world's oil, supplied 31.1 million barrels a day in November, 180,000 barrels a day less than October, according to the agency's estimates.

``OPEC is trying to bring the price down,'' Ronald Smith, head of equity research at Moscow's Alfa Bank, said today. With oil at $95 ``or higher you will start to see some demand destruction and some slowdown in the global economy.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Eduard Gismatullin in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 14, 2007 05:45 EST

AMR

16-12-2007, 12:17 PM

We discussed NZO a fair bit. Notably, a game called "Pass the Parcel":D:D:D

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/9701/dsc00008wincepx2.jpg
http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/2153/dsc00009winceea6.jpg

Nothing inside!

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/9553/dsc00010wincemy2.jpg

Disc: Still bullish on NZO

duncan macgregor

16-12-2007, 01:23 PM

The parcel was passed around like a hot potatoe at the Auckland get together. Nobody wanted to hold it, so we decided to open it to put everyone out their misery, and have a sneaky look.
This was followed by being told to leave the area in an orderly manner into another room. LIZ responded by saying I HAVE BEEN THROWN OUT BETTER PLACES THAN THIS. STRAT was no help, and if it had not been for MACDUNK starting up explaining his time line theory things might have turned nasty. We all had bets to where the first childish comments would come from. OILER reckons peak oil will arrive first before some of these people wake up to what really is going on. All in all NZO was debated as being a bit unlucky not to have gone up in price over the last three years. Now that the parcel is shown to be worthless i expect the averaging down brigade to take over. MACDUNK

zorba

16-12-2007, 10:31 PM

.
Prithy tell us mere mortals, yes prithy, MacD, do tell us why thou thinkst, that NZOG is so worthless ????

Or is this just your same old coprolitic rampage across landscapes dispossessed of any skerriks of sanity, the same old effluences without a nano skerrick of justiffication ???????

Aye, prithey tell us mere mortals, please do !!

Or should we reach for the tomes on libel and slander yet again ??
.

shane_m

16-12-2007, 10:43 PM

dunk posted the parcel to his mate Toney for x-mas.

turkey attacked pkk, oil price set to soar (thank uu) this week.

disc: PYM/PSA

upside_umop

16-12-2007, 11:39 PM

oil is set to make us sore? or set to soar?
im mixed about oil medium term...its a traders game, and the US is gonna be hit hard.

LIO

17-12-2007, 11:24 AM

Thanks Zorba ( for the info. on anns. ). I'm trying to time the market. Ha Ha ! Want to swap a few more NZO for PRC. Of course I'd rather make the move when / if an ann. pushes NZO ahead again, and get more PRC for my money. Guess they won't be level-pegging forever. Ah, but which will move first ? Oh for a crystal ball.

oldowl

18-12-2007, 10:48 AM

Kupe development drilling to start
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Thursday, December 13, 2007

THE Kupe topsides module has been installed on the platform's jacket and development drilling for the offshore Taranaki, New Zealand gas-condensate project is about start.

Origin Energy Kupe project director Peter Ashford said yesterday that the Technip-Origin Energy alliance was making good progress with the $NZ1.08 billion ($A960 million) project.

Construction of the onshore production station, designed by Technip in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, was almost 50% complete, Ashford said at the production station site in south Taranaki.

"Onshore progress is a little behind schedule, but we are extremely pleased with offshore. The platform is now finished and we should be drilling by the weekend."

The jack-up Ensco Rig 107 completed putting the 470-tonne topsides on the already-installed 550-tonne platform early Tuesday morning and the module was being welded onto the jacket.

The Ensco rig would then start drilling the first of three development wells into the central field area (CFA) of the Kupe prospect – a task that should be finished by next April or May.

Ashford said the next important event would be the arrival in early January of the specialist pipelaying vessel Apache.

The reel barge had already picked up the Kupe umbilical, which was manufactured in Corpus Christi in the United States, and was now in the mid-Pacific en route to New Zealand. It was expected to arrive about January 4-7.

Ashford said the Apache would load welded sections of pipe, up to 10km in total length, at Picton, near the top of the South Island, before transporting them north to Taranaki waters.

The Apache would then lay the pipe from near the south Taranaki coast out to the Kupe platform, 30km offshore. In good weather, the Apache could lay up to 1km of pipe per hour, much faster than an ordinary lay barge.

Parts of the offshore pipeline and umbilical would be buried in a subsea trench, while other parts would be supported above the rocky near-shore by specially designed concrete mattresses, the same type as those used in the more northern Pohokura gas-condensate project, Ashford said.

The specialist dive support vessel Rockwater-2, which helped lay the flexible pipelines and umbilical for the Tui Area oil field development, would also be involved in similar work with the Kupe project.

Offshore work on the pipeline and umbilical should be finished by April.

The Kupe venture plans to drill up to an additional three wells in the petroleum mining permit after about 10 years of production from mid-2009. This would drain the CFA and maintain flow rates from the field.

Kupe will supply about 254 petajoules of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas and 14.7 million barrels of condensate over the project's expected 15-plus years of life, according to Origin.

Each partner will sell its own percentage of gas, condensate and LPG. Origin has already sold its 50% share of gas to integrated energy company Genesis Energy, the second-largest Kupe partner.

Most condensate will probably be exported from Port Taranaki to Asia. Ashford said the initial flows, of about 7000bpd would provide "a nice additional revenue stream".

The Kupe joint venture is having two storage tanks and export facilities constructed at the Omata tank farm above Port Taranaki to hold the condensate.

Two of several main piperacks were at the site of the production station and construction of the operational building had started. About 20-25 operators, five per shift, would operate the normally unmanned platform and production station, according to Ashford.

About 120 people onsite had so far worked over 1 million hours without a single lost time incident.

A peak construction workforce of about 900 is expected in about nine months. About 90% of the present workforce is from Taranaki and about 30% of the equipment has been manufactured or supplied by Taranaki companies.

Once the raw gas stream has been treated at the production station, condensate and LPG will be taken by road tankers to the port. Gas will be piped inland to the nearby Kapuni processing plant, owned and operated by Vector subsidiary NGC, for reticulation in the North Island high-pressure pipeline network.

The Kupe partners are operator Origin (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (15%), and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

the machine

18-12-2007, 11:21 AM

good news re kupe progress, pity about timing though as mr market not happy.

M

bermuda

18-12-2007, 11:43 AM

good news re kupe progress, pity about timing though as mr market not happy.

M

Thank goodness NZO is fully funded. Wouldnt want to be rolling over loans in this climate.

Yes, Kupe going very well and remember...the pipeline has been built to carry 3 times ( yes.. three times...or triple.. ) the volume that's been proven to date.

Why?

The exploration wells in April/May hopefully will provide the answer.

Bring it on.

AMR

18-12-2007, 12:08 PM

duncan macgregor

18-12-2007, 12:54 PM

Pike and NZO getting smashed. Got stopped out of NZO this morning, might come back in later (much later) on technical signals.

People are starting to throw the R (Recession) word around a fair bit now, I'm getting nervous. To be expected with global markets down. Use the 30 day moving average on the way back with both PRC and NZO as your buy signal. Its a good time to sit on the fence like a vulture waiting on an oversold morsel to feed on. The market looks like its being oversold, fundamentals mean nothing, stick with your TA its market sentiment that counts. After my nice win on AGM yesterday i am cashed out mostly, hoping for a real crash. I would be looking at TPW and CEN in the NZ market after a real crash as best bets. MACDUNK

Nitaa

18-12-2007, 01:05 PM

After reading some of those posts i thought it was all doom and gloom. I was expecting a million plus shares traded and a big drop in sp. Neither has happened to NZO so for the heads holder i would not be too concerned. Pike has dipped a bit but again, on very thin volume. This sort of scenario must be a nightmare for traders as its hard to get out when you want. If you put a stop loss in place even then you are likely to get with your pants down.

Sugestion. I say let the wannabees have sleepless nights trading on the overseas markets. Leave it to the gamblers...bar a few experts..i.e less than 10% of the traders.

duncan macgregor

18-12-2007, 01:43 PM

NITA, For someone with so little knowledge of trading you seem to be making [excuse the expression] broad assumptions on it being more risky than being brain dead with your portfolio tucked firmly under the bed. Traders exploit people like you they are first out the market waiting on you lot to sell back to them at a much lower price. I had a 36% gain yesterday on AGM and sold the lot. I will buy back in from the blue eyed brigade later on. Trading is what keeps the market alive dont keep rubbishing something you fail to understand. We all start by being fundamentalists the smart ones learn and progress the dumb ones stay in a time warp being exploited and to thick to realize it. Your old mate Macdunk telling you off.

bermuda

18-12-2007, 01:51 PM

trackers

18-12-2007, 02:41 PM

I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in, but the tiny buy side is keeping me a bit nervous at this stage

Dr_Who

18-12-2007, 03:15 PM

There are blood everywhere on the floors. Those that are brave with holding power will reap the profits in this market.

trackers

18-12-2007, 03:47 PM

There are blood everywhere on the floors. Those that are brave with holding power will reap the profits in this market.

Sorry, but thats completely nonsensical

sideline

18-12-2007, 04:51 PM

There are blood everywhere on the floors. Those that are brave with holding power will reap the profits in this market.

Just as I thought: even a positive announcement on a bad market day doesn't cut it: It just attracts
the attention of the 'the-sky-is-falling'-brigade.
Still it is comforting to see that the down-movement is on very small volume only. Some players
a little bit too highly leveraged??

Dr_Who

18-12-2007, 04:55 PM

Those with cash and holding power will benefit most from days like this. If you believe in peak oil, then the doom days are opportunities. If you dont believe in peak oil, then stay out of the oil stocks!

zorba

18-12-2007, 10:34 PM

.
At the moment price of oil holding up although pretty choppy ....

http://data.tradingcharts.com/intraday_charts/charts/31e1767076c61f855d434404e64ae20b.png

But how will POO react to looming US slow down / recession ?

The effects of the US sub-prime fiasco are everywhere, certainly also in NZ .... I've been stung by exposure to sub-prime write downs by way of a diversived investment package from ING. The "International Fixed Interest" component of the package suffered serious write downs due to inclusion of US sub-prime mortgages, what a mess !! When I originally put funds into this supposedly robust and diversified package there was no mention of sub-prime exposure or what that might mean in terms of increased risks !!

Check out this report on Fed attemps to manage the mess ....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602002&sid=aXGATkTYrPg4&refer=markets

What a mess !!!

I no longer have confidence in the US economy or in ING and the fancy investment products they tout. I'm pulling all my funds out of ING and into my on call bank account. No doubt thousands are doing exactly the same round the world, hence the liquidity crisis and the possibility of recession.

In the meantime NZOG is so undervalued it may well ride out the slow down and the falling Dow Jones ..... my pick is it will not spend too much time under a dollar.
.

Nitaa

19-12-2007, 12:36 AM

DM. Please tell me what you know about trading that I don't. I am looking forward to your response on that. Why dont i trade? The simple answer is my time is too precious to be looking at the charts and numbers all day to worry about trying to make a buck through trading in stock, futures or whatever. Ive read plenty of books on it like the famous elliot wave theory. In a nut shell, it seems great in theory but as often the its not until after the event that clear definitions are shown.

As far as NZO is concerned, I brought my first shares in the low 30's. and they are now over $1.00 plus the options that i got along the way. This representing over 300% net gain in around 4 plus years. That is why i dont need to bother in day trading. My only other purcahse this year has been PPP. I only brought options at 4.1 cps. I converted at $AU0.15 selling most at 35 cps. The rest i hold are free. So why do i need to waste hours on trading when fundamentals gave me an excellent return.

Mick100

19-12-2007, 12:40 AM

.

In the meantime NZOG is so undervalued it may well ride out the slow down and the falling Dow Jones ..... my pick is it will not spend too much time under a dollar.
.

, you are depressed zorba
Can't see nzo going under a dollar
My guess is that it will be back above $1.10 tomorrow

I think it's time for many investors to clear this "US reccession crap" out of their minds and just get on with investing in undervalued companies
eg, NZO
I don't think they are going to stop using oil in the US even if they do have a reccession - all it would mean is that US demand would not increase next yr

zorba

19-12-2007, 12:57 AM

.
Mick,

You are right ....

Onwards and upwards for NZOG !!
.

bermuda

19-12-2007, 01:49 AM

Nita,
I told you before . You are my kind of girl. Fundamentals. Just plain old common sense.

The Australian eastern coast will be converting to CBM over the next 2-5 years

VPE/BOW

Cant beat it.

Bilo

19-12-2007, 10:00 AM

[/quote]I don't think they are going to stop using oil in the US even if they do have a reccession - all it would mean is that US demand would not increase next yr[/quote]

The average American earns twice as much as most people in the developed world and pays half as much for petrol. Ask yourself when you would stop using it, or reduce consumption. Their consumption won't drop. If it looked like dropping they would start to top up their "strategic reserve"....as will the Chinese...

The Arabs like USD90 oil (for the present) and won't contribute towards a glut ever again.

...in the mean time, Tapis crude has been cruising along at over USD100!!
Must be nearly 150days of Tui oil now..~75M?? to NZO. No income tax to pay...

Seriously impressive cash flows...no comment about water cut so must be continuing better than early expectations...

NZO may have had a possible need for a few million in cash in the early months but their banks are unlikely to be worried by NZO at the moment...

the machine

20-12-2007, 11:17 AM

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00797662

kupe drilling started

M

AMR

20-12-2007, 12:36 PM

Dr_Who

20-12-2007, 01:35 PM

This is a good example why you shouldnt panic and should look at fundamentals instead of T/A graphs. Did you get your training from McDunk? LOL

upside_umop

20-12-2007, 02:15 PM

Seems NZO missed the boat on aquiring the assets of Swift...but was interesting to note that they were mentioning Kupe in the Stuff article today. Maybe that leaves an opportunity for NZO to come in with a 15% share on some of those assets...?

Anyone else know of any assets NZO could be looking at to acquire?

Unicorn

20-12-2007, 03:02 PM

I am absolutely spewing today. My 7% stop was taken out and the stock continues right back up. I'd be interested to see how others are putting their stops in with this stock. A lot of false breakouts, spikes, and volatility in general makes this a bit tricky to analyse with TA. Still bullish on oil, but this is looking more like a 2 yr hold than a 6 month hold.

A 7% stop can easily be taken out at this time of year, given the minimal volumes going through and the general volatility of global markets. There was a spread of 4% at one time today! At this time of year I prefer to be either in or out, then ignore what is happening for a month or so.

A number of the NZO rises and falls in recent months can be attributed to the drilling program, rather than natural market ebb and flow, and this can cloud TA unless you make allowances.

I am not sure why you suggest a 2 year timeframe, rather than 6 months. There is a lot that can be expected to happen over the next six months, starting with the next quarterly announcement only about 6 weeks away. That will be the first quarter of full production from Tui and an enormous change on any previous quarter in the history of the company. Six months is also about the timeframe for NZOOD conversion, PRC mine production, the end of the first year as a significant producer, and some concrete progress with the "growth strategy".

Nitaa

20-12-2007, 04:16 PM

The next 6 months is going to see fantastic opportunities for the savy traders with regards to the options. Tui and kupe will be prove to show siginicant positve news in the next 6 months. Im still sitting on the fence with PRC although medium to long term i have no doubts. I will leave my exposure to PRC through what i hold in NZO.

Going to be fun times short term barring a meltown in global markets. Paitence in investing in quality stocks such as NZO will continue to prove rewarding.

Bilo

20-12-2007, 04:22 PM

I am absolutely spewing today. My 7% stop was taken out and the stock continues right back up. I'd be interested to see how others are putting their stops in with this stock.

AMR you would be gifting your broker with the diffference between your stop and the market with NZO. Sure to be taken out if it was any consequence...

If the stop was really needed it is doubtful whether the volume would be there to fill your order anyway.....a waste of time and effort with inconsistently traded NZX stocks.

The lack of liquidity is a major problem for TAs and valuation. Makes it hard to get your money out at market and eventually, as has happened with the NZX, stops people committing cash to IPOs.

A major problem has developed in NZ, eventually the NZX will have to join the ASX (or someone else) - perhaps the Fonterra listing will be the catalyst that will be the end of the NZX as an independent stock exchange.

Could say similar things wrt the NZD...

Oiler

20-12-2007, 06:30 PM

This is a good example why you shouldnt panic and should look at fundamentals instead of T/A graphs. Did you get your training from McDunk? LOL

Dr Who..... thats a bit of a low blow !!

MacDunk throws his thoughts out there and has followers and critics but lets remember, MDs approach works for him and thats all that matters.

tim23

20-12-2007, 10:01 PM

I'm with Dr Who - you have to believe most of what each poster says but I suspect theres a few porkies thrown in especially for those who continue to make only winning calls!

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 12:42 AM

I'm with Dr Who - you have to believe most of what each poster says but I suspect theres a few porkies thrown in especially for those who continue to make only winning calls!.....arrhhh yep. have to agree with you there. If you do some caluculations with some posters then they are making 200 - 300% per month and thats when the market goes against them.

Even the very best get it horribly wrong. If i am not mistaken, WB got done like a hot dinner last year betting against the US currency.

Interesting play but not unexpected with Origin/Contact buying some of Swift assets. I am sure NZO were looking or are still weighing up up the opportunites there as well. What will NZO do with the millions coming into their coffers apart from servicing their debt and investing in exploration? Thats the big Q for me

STRAT

21-12-2007, 02:41 AM

This is a good example why you shouldnt panic and should look at fundamentals instead of T/A graphs. Did you get your training from McDunk? LOLHanging your line in front of AMR or me wont get Macdunk to bite Doc. I suggest you try a more direct approach.;):p

duncan macgregor

21-12-2007, 07:33 AM

I am absolutely spewing today. My 7% stop was taken out and the stock continues right back up. I'd be interested to see how others are putting their stops in with this stock. A lot of false breakouts, spikes, and volatility in general makes this a bit tricky to analyse with TA. Still bullish on oil, but this is looking more like a 2 yr hold than a 6 month hold. AMR, You are one of the lucky ones. Lets presume you were a brain dead fundamentalist, and bought them exactly three years ago when they were $1-05. You would be a whole 5c up in a 3 year raging bull market when the average monkey and dart board investor would have screamed passed you. I would say the hype was stronger then than it is today with better reason.
Nobody wins all the time, we all have losses yours and mine being controled losses with fixed ammounts. The people that we prey on to make our systems work have uncontroled losses they hold on right to the end. Dont upset them. I do notice the parcel getting lighter on the way round so all the bravado about being right is starting to wear thin. Good luck hope you all prove me wrong . Macdunk

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 07:56 AM

DM. Sorry i didnt get to sit on your lap last week.

Yes you are particially right about the OD's. Time is creeping up very fast. Clearly they are a high risk item which by the way I still hold some. The heads though is for the safe but astute investor at present. Who cares what the price is now. I only care what i sell them for. What happens in between is irrelevant to me.

I was hoping you could shed some light on what you know about trading that i dont know. Personally i dont expect you to answer this question. Prove me wrong MD

ps. in a bear market a stock with good fundamentals will stick out like a dwarf on a basketball court. In a bullish market even the worst stock can rise faster than Edmunds Baking Powder

Dr_Who

21-12-2007, 09:48 AM

Hanging your line in front of AMR or me wont get Macdunk to bite Doc. I suggest you try a more direct approach.;):p

You speak too soon. :D I only have a poke at MD for fun. This place will not be the same without the old man and his bagpipe constantly blowing hot air. :p:D

Hoop

21-12-2007, 09:53 AM

Nita your quote....."ps. in a bear market a stock with good fundamentals will stick out like a dwarf on a basketball court. In a bullish market even the worst stock can rise faster than Edmunds Baking Powder"

In theory and in a perfect world this would be true...but....we are in neither.

The bear market especially towards the end just before the bull emerges investors are physiologically battered especially in certain market sectors that taken the blunt of the market storm, there is investor disinterest, doom and gloom, and only the harder souls emerge to take a punt.

Rumours abound puts off the investors investing in even the best fundamental stocks...it is possible a great stock may take a beating due to unfounded rumours, and a shaky stock may do the opposite.

What I am saying is that in a bear market logic tends to be forgotten about, and irrationality rules.

I am a fundamentalist and long term investor by nature but I curb my instincts, hold cash for that rare opportunity, and go shorter term when the market turns into a bear.

Hate to sound like MD but at this stage of the overall market cycle TA is the way to go.

In a bear market investor behaviour is irrational and TA gives you the lowdown on how to manage that behaviour. Also pays to find other investor behaviour analysis to identify advanced warning signals so to bail out before a major correction. You also have to assume that a bear market may last for years, so just waiting it out in the market with a good fundamental stock is usually a bad option. Shorter term investment and more discipline on stop/loss is important.

NZO is fundamentally a good stock to have but if the bear emerges which it is showing signs of doing (even within the energy/mining sector) then a change of investment strategy is needed.

Disc: Presently have NZO, PRC, DPC, + 80% cash (Had 13 stocks in my portfolio in mid 2007 + 5% cash)

Nita...sorry to be a party-pooper and spoil your pre-xmas fun.

duncan macgregor

21-12-2007, 10:06 AM

Yes you are particially right about the OD's. Time is creeping up very fast. Clearly they are a high risk item which by the way I still hold some.
I was hoping you could shed some light on what you know about trading that i dont know. Personally i dont expect you to answer this question. Prove me wrong MD
NITA i notice that even you are passing the parcel like a hot potatoe. What i know about trading and what you know about trading is of no interest to anyone other than ourselves. I once tried to explain a time line which opened my eyes to the utter stupidity from comments that some so called investors come out with. It was as frustrating as trying to teach a dumb seven year old kid the nine times table. NZO is not a good traders share with not enough turnover. Fundamental investors have stood still for three years. Most of the good news is out, the sp is at this low level simply because of distrust that investors have for the company. If you knew anything at all about trading you would not be holding the options all the way down from 30c to whatever it is today. That speaks volumes to me about your trading ability. Macdunk

AMR

21-12-2007, 12:31 PM

ps. in a bear market a stock with good fundamentals will stick out like a dwarf on a basketball court. In a bullish market even the worst stock can rise faster than Edmunds Baking Powder

I think we are not entering a recession as such, but stagflation. I'm bullish oil as I believe it will act as a store of value in times of high inflation and I also believe in the peak oil theory.

Now for those options...
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/2950/nzoodma4.png

The first divergence between the prices and on balance volume (a running total of volume traded on up days minus volume traded on down days) was a warning sign to tighten up stops. This divergence was also present on several other indicators such as 7 day RSI, 10 day stochastics, and 5 day stochastics. The second bearish sign would have been given by the failure of the 26c floor (resistance). This completed the rectangular top pattern. Basic pillars of TA theory such as resistance would have gotten you out around the 26c mark (excluding slippage), or even running a 25% stop loss would have been better than "buy and hold". The interesting thing about this chart is that it may suggest there were some people in the know about the results of the Hector drill before they were publicly released. We saw pretty similar pre-announcement selldowns in RAK before, although another possibility was that traders like us were selling down since the chance of Hector being dry was much higher than that of it being a jackpot.

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 01:20 PM

hoop, in theory most of your post is relevant. and of course should there be a significant change in commodity prices (sorry bermuda) then the fundamentals change a lot.

MD. Good to see I at least got a reply except you werent brave enough to give your reasons about you knowing more than me with regards to trading. I thought you have more banana in you. Have i ridden my ods all the way down from 30? actually over thirty since i have sold a big chunk over that price. Perhaps you can then do the math. my options were part of the risk i was prepared to take. It is important to put things into c0ontenxt and understand what i have sold. In short I am so well in the money on od's even if the parcel ends up empty.

Yes i may loose a few grand with what i am holding but i am prepared for that. My risk/versus reward management which i can live with.

ps. Do you sell your house because the value drops 10 or 20% in a 12 month period? and does your stop loss on this spit you out and you renter the market at the bottom again?

duncan macgregor

21-12-2007, 01:57 PM

[QUOTE=Nita;

MD.

ps. Do you sell your house because the value drops 10 or 20% in a 12 month period? and does your stop loss on this spit you out and you renter the market at the bottom again?[/QUOTE]
NITA I do sell a house if it is going to lose its value. This does not require me to have no house at all. It is much better to sell up, and buy smething that gains in value. In good times sell at the top and in bad times buy at the bottom. Change houses if need be on the same rung of the ladder to a better proposition but as with anything the brain dead will be there to be exploited. The people that bought into NZO over the last three years other than traders have made nothing. Its good to see you starting to wake up to the weight of the parcel which is getting quite light of late. Macdunk

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 07:06 PM

You sound exactly like my husband. He always say, sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Needless to say hes not a specialist in investing in stocks.

I think MD its time to give yourself a good poke in the eye. sorry to dissapoint but i doubt many posters on here that brought 3 years ago still exist. simply because nzo hasnt done it for them. The ones who brought before or after may be laughing. I know you got your pants caught short with NZO and perhaps the only one to hold a grudge for so long. Im not going to go into why you brought so high and so low....ops sorry there.... but you got NZO wrong my dear friend.. its time to get over it already.

Heres a good opportunity to pick your 5 best stocks for nz this year. Personally i dont care if you hold or not but with your 30 day moving averages, couple with your time lines and the flip of a double headed coin (always calling tails) you should be able to take out the 2008 easy. But then i again, i dont expect you to show your hand as it makes you vunerable.

Sorry MD, I have seen your tpye over and over again and although you have foold some on here you havent fooled me.

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 07:13 PM

You sound exactly like my husband. He always say, sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Needless to say hes not a specialist in investing in stocks.

I think MD its time to give yourself a good poke in the eye. sorry to dissapoint but i doubt many posters on here that brought 3 years ago still exist simply because nzo hasnt done it for them. The ones who brought before or after are laughing. I know you got your pants caught short with NZO and perhaps the only one to hold a grudge for so long. Im not going to go into why you brought so high and so low....ops sorry there.... but you got NZO wrong my dear friend.. its time to get over it already.

Heres a good opportunity to pick your 5 best stocks for nz this year. Personally i dont care if you hold or not but with your 30 day moving averages, coupled with your time lines and the flip of a double headed coin (always calling tails) you should be able to take out the 2008 easy. But then i again, i dont expect you to show your hand as it makes you vunerable.

You have the opportunity to prove to me and to the others that you know better than most. Show us your hand MD.

ps. What is the status with your porperties. Since you would sell if the market goes south say 10 next year do you intend to sell? Of course if the market goes north as per the last few years its a no brainer to buy more properties. Whats your call. Hopefully this time i can see if you are made of jelly or viagra.

Uts time to front up MD.....If not then all its showing is your full of gas again and again

duncan macgregor

21-12-2007, 08:13 PM

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 10:06 PM

I guess its not viagra that hes made of...i rest my case.

tim23

21-12-2007, 10:29 PM

Hoop - stick to basketball

Duncan- now you are a housing expert - I guess you move house each month when the 30 day moving average tells you should - telecom, the real estate agents, sky, vector, lawyer, removalist etc must love you!

Nitaa

21-12-2007, 10:40 PM

The last time i posted five stocks in a row was in the ASX stock picking competition. I was holding four out of the five at the time . MCR, SMY, AGM, SMM. Sold SMM at $5-95 and agM at $1-05. MCR and SMY are srill over 100 percenters for the year. I was second in the competition one month and first in another. I am also in the NZX competition so look them both up, i dont invest in NZ so am not bothered. Whats you guys records then ?. I dont see either one of you ever being big enough to enter anything so until such times as you do i will reserve judgement. macdunkIf i recall MD, you picked all the penny dreadfuls are were leading after 1 month. By the second month you were coming stone motherless last.

Ive let you have a go with me without you knowing a jolly thing. sorry md.. if its too hot in the kitchen then dont go in there.

Funny how it is that the ones who have made money on NZO dont need to prove it. Yet you talk about your 3 and 4 baggers you make every day. I dont recall you ever losing until you disclosed that you brought nzo.. your mrx or stock that was going to give you a 200% gain overnight is on a downward trend. how is the mcdunk factor dealing with this... the 30 day moving average is about 2 cps above the current sp. the worm has not turned so are you waiting to get lucky or cut your losses?

as a day trader..nzo looks to be on the rise.. closed solid today big guy. nzo drops on low volume and increases on higher volume..you do the math.

hot tip of the day for you....work hard and be good to your mother

zorba

21-12-2007, 11:42 PM

.
Nita,

why do you bother with MD ?????

sideline

21-12-2007, 11:50 PM

Chris Lee has some positive comments about PRC and NZO in his latest Market News:

<quote>
.............
The share float of the year might be a toss-up between Pike River Coal and Opus, but because PRC eventually was available to anyone who asked, and has prospered, it wins my nod.

Ironically its key broker was Andrew McDouall, a peppery, bright young man, who has never turned his back on a good stoush, and who I have come to admire and enjoy.

This was a tough issue - bigger brokers declined it - but largely because of the excellent people PRC have acquired, and the stunning increase in the value of coking coal, the float succeeded, and within a year its project might be even more successful than anyone had hoped.

...........................

A good number of those clients still willing to risk capital loss have bought into Pike River Coal and NZ Oil & Gas.

PRC is now more than 80% of the way to its objective, a vein of unique coking coal, and through sheer luck is getting there at a time when its coal is worth more than ever, far more than its budgeted price.

If the tunnel is completed without disasters, and if coal remains at current prices, the PRC shareholders, at whatever price they have paid, will be rewarded for their courage.

NZ Oil & Gas owns 33% of PRC, so will benefit from this, but it has had an additional bonus, thanks to the growing reserves of oil being discovered at Tui, 20 kms offshore from the Taranaki coast.

The Tui well has already sent away a million barrels of liquid gold and now believes its find has a much greater reservoir than ever contemplated.

NZOG also will benefit in two years from the gas field, being developed by Contact Energy.

In 2008, it is conceivable that most sharemarkets will be in reverse but even if that happens, there will be those prepared to pay to get into the cashflows being poured from energy sources.

.....................

Disclosure: Around 5% of my assets are invested in PRC, NZOG, WID.

<end quote>

Have a happy Christmas all!

AMR

21-12-2007, 11:56 PM

The muck is really flying now:eek:

Today's rise was on good volume so I am probably going to re-enter on Monday with a wider stop and not worry about it until a few months later. Not terribly far above the 60 day EMA or the trendline at the moment so there is minimal downside. I would like to be in for the quarterly results which should be the catalyst for a strong rally :).

In hindsight I should have placed my stop at 105 instead of 107 (I was expecting the 110 resistance to hold on the close, with perhaps an intraday penetration).

duncan macgregor

22-12-2007, 07:05 AM

If i recall MD, you picked all the penny dreadfuls are were leading after 1 month. By the second month you were coming stone motherless last. NITA, what total garbage. I was second in the ASX competition one month and first the next at the moment i am about 16th on about 60% up which is higher than your best in the NZX competition. Look it up before making PLONK induced stupid statements. Have a go yourself if you dare lets see you match your mouth with your predictions. Macdunk

Nitaa

22-12-2007, 12:56 PM

MD. I am up for the challenge. Let us both place our 5 top picks for nz next year.

MD. tell me you didnt pick all the the penny dreaduls in one competion? I remember you leading that comp after 1 month (for a year long com it was irrelevant) but the same comp with the same picks left you in last place. That what can happen when you only invest in speccy's.

sorry zorba. I see a small clan of followers starting to believe in the rubbish that md is talking about. Its starting to remind me of the mid 80's where many people thought they were an expert picking winners on the sharemarket. I see the same pattern emerging with MD and his followers.

It is in the hope that people, especially the new investors no matter where they are investing will not believe the total garbage that md goes on about. With this in mind, the new investors are reminded to investigate a stock for themselves first before they believe any tom dick and mcdunk.

all the same, putting everything aside, Nita would like to wish everyone a very merry xmas and a prosperious new year.

Nitaa

22-12-2007, 01:09 PM

I took the liberty to check for myself and according to the latest update at end of nov your are only up 44.4% 9ok thats about 60%, not) in 18th position. In the same thread this month here is your post.

"I would have thought that a little heel snapper hiding behind a hidden identity would at least have the guts to enter the competition before saying how good or bad another person is. The winner at the end as we all know is the person that picked outsiders that happened to come in. Stolli as you call him is a very astute and informed investor whose outsiders have not come in so far. The competition would be a completely different event if we only selected companies that were in our portfolio. Get a life you silly little person stop snapping at the heels of your superiors. Macdunk"

Here you admit to picking outsiders and the selection would be completely different to your portfolio. So even if you do well you are admitting that your picks are totally irrelevant in the real world. md you are living in fairly land. sorry, but you are completely of the rails you sill person. stick to the darts at the local club but dont just use it to pick your stocks that you invest your hard earned money on.

duncan macgregor

22-12-2007, 07:40 PM

NITA i was replying to your weasel little mate who was laughing at gerry who was on his death bed. Nothing at all to do with me or my investments or investment style. Gerry happened to be a very astute investor who in the past taught me and countless others in a very unselfish way more about investing than you will ever know. I did happen to know about gerries health so in your eyes probabely over reacted but in real life i would have loved to meet the guy to further explain. Macdunk

the machine

23-12-2007, 12:44 AM

thinking that the revenue nzo will book in this quarter will be over nz$50m and will cause a very substantial rerating of the sp once announced at end of jan.

this in itself may be enough to give some surety to the options being excised

interesting times ahead

M

sideline

23-12-2007, 10:31 AM

In addition to the revenue there should also be the previous tax writeoffs which previously
couldn't be recognized in the balance sheet because their realisation wasn't 'a virtual certainty'.
With the oil now flowing that should have changed and recognition of that tax asset should improve
the balance sheet quite a bit.

the machine

23-12-2007, 01:55 PM

thanks sideline - yes the previous tax right offs will be brought to bear in december quarterly, followed soon after by the half yearly.

will we se $1.70 by end of feb?

M

bermuda

23-12-2007, 02:07 PM

thanks sideline - yes the previous tax right offs will be brought to bear in december quarterly, followed soon after by the half yearly.

will we se $1.70 by end of feb?

M

Yes the financials will do the talking. Pity they cant get an interim set of figiures out before the Christmas bbq season. Cant see the tax write offs being used just yet though.

It will be very interesting to see if the oppies get exercised. The financiials will help but the BIG lift will come in May / June when the 'wildcat' Kupe wells are drilled. After the failures at Hector , Tieke, and Taranui I think we will all look forward to a couple of Kupe wildcats coming in.

Remember they built the pipeline to take 3 times the current known volume.

She is going to go right to the wire.

manxman

23-12-2007, 03:03 PM

Looking at the Oppies

The following table gives the nett profit for various share prices at 30th June.

It I have $10000 to invest
A - Buy 9009 head shares at $1.11
B - Buy 18018 heads on 50% margin (Holding costs $600 assumed)
C - Buy 125000 NZOOD at $0.08

SP A B C
1.20 810.80 1021.60 -10000.00
1.25 1261.25 1922.50 -10000.00
1.30 1711.70 2823.40 -10000.00
1.35 2162.15 3724.30 -10000.00
1.40 2612.60 4625.20 -10000.00
1.45 3063.05 5526.10 -10000.00
1.50 3513.50 6427.00 -10000.00
1.55 3963.95 7327.90 -3750.00
1.60 4414.40 8228.80 2500.00
1.65 4864.85 9129.70 8750.00
1.70 5315.30 10030.60 15000.00
1.75 5765.75 10931.50 21250.00
1.80 6216.20 11832.40 27500.00
1.85 6666.65 12733.30 33750.00

Option B beats option A if the share price makes any significant gain.
Option C beats A only if the share price tops $1.60 at 30 June
Option C beats option B if the share price beats $1.66 at 30th June

Above those levels, a punt on the ODs makes a fortune of course, but you need quite an appetite for risk, and there is very little liquidity if you wanted to trade out of any volume. Last time I did this arithmetic, the heads were about 7 times the price of the options, and the break even point was around $1.90. Now with the oppies being closer to 14 per head share, the arithmetic has changed a bit.

Consider also that the excercise of the options will be a very significant capital raising for the NZX, and if many of the options are exercised with borrowed money, then there may be a significant weakening effect after 30th June as overextended punters try to cash out.

Mx

Disc: Traded in my oppies on heads and hope that I did the wrong thing.

the machine

23-12-2007, 09:50 PM

remember nzo mzde it a priority to have the options excised

tui flowing through to the financials will easily do it and then as each segment of kupe is derisked that will help the sp along.

kupe jacket and topside are dereisked - the batch drilling of the 3 production holes should be straightforward. guess next kupe big risk item is the laying of the 30km of pipe and will make sime nice fortage with the apache pipe laying vessel handling 10km of continuous pipe - incredible really.

2q 08 will see the kupe wildcats, prc starting production and probably the extra tui production hole having a timeslot - awe have a rig due in nz in 2008.

m

blockhead

24-12-2007, 09:49 AM

See the 1st buyer lining up this morning @ $1.20 blimey what does he know ?

777

24-12-2007, 09:56 AM

400 shares. Wow thats going get the market going......

Tok3n

24-12-2007, 10:19 AM

400 shares?

Huge volume!, must be CFDs traders piling in :)

blockhead

24-12-2007, 11:35 AM

400 shares?

Huge volume!, must be CFDs traders piling in :)

C'mon you two, less cynicsm, its the season of goodwill you know, up 02c just the same !

the machine

24-12-2007, 11:37 AM

nzo seem to be a tad in favour of mr market today

M

Lion

25-12-2007, 11:31 AM

Yes, Mr Market even opened after-hours yesterday for NZO. Trades near 4 p.m. @ 116, up 5 for the day!

It's gonna be a good year, I can feel it.

Merry Christmas everyone.

shane_m

28-12-2007, 05:12 PM

Andrew? TR's old mate?

bermuda

28-12-2007, 05:28 PM

Andrew? TR's old mate?

If TR picked him I'm happy. Very astute our TR.

the machine

29-12-2007, 01:06 AM

kupebatch drilling looks good and will take another 5 months to complete - that means the first wildcat does not start until late May, thus the wildcat is unlikely to have a significant bearing on the oc's being converted - like a discovery.

M

Crypto Crude

29-12-2007, 06:19 AM

what the helll is going on here...
NZO should be way north of $1.30 right now!...
theres either
a) the crime of the century been pulled off with a lid on the SP...
b) Ive clouded my judgement on this one...
or c) the SP is an absolute outrage...
...
A rising SP is hit with resistance of sellers...
great news gets treated with suspicion...
Im bloody pissed off and I dont even hold this stock...
...
I've held the options twice and hit two spikes when I thought it would happen but I never thought SP would sail back down to where it was in pre-production days.....This companies got me baffled and I just cant figure out why the market has effectively written off tui production at staggering rates, increased reserves twice, continued advancement of Kupe and Pike projects...PRC SP has been rising...
This is NZ's premier listed oil and gas explorer, whats going on mr Market???
Its time to start thinking of putting my hard earnt holiday job money on it...
If only OD's had a longer dated expiry then I'd be all over them like a rash...im not keen on OD's...
Ive had 5 years experience in oil industry investment, and 23years experience as being a cool cat...
what the bloody heelllss going on....
disc- VPEO 6.3c ave, MEO $1.1 ave....
lata...
:cool:
.^sc

JBmurc

29-12-2007, 08:45 AM

Yeah the Opts really need another 6 months to expire still I wouldn't right NZO off from being over 1.50 come current expire date.
Because the fact is Oil is running out fast ,faster than we will ever understand
$150bbl US Oil will be in the running in 08 if the US invades IRAN $250bbl US(longterm only up)remember we pay $3 litre for bottled water

-Oil and Gold will take centre stage in 08 and become core holdings for the savy investors
NZO will get alot of market att.
-Oil&Gas weekly believe NZO is a min $2 share atm(I also believe this and will be only buying not selling till $2)

I'm very happy to be holding 73300 NZO and hopefully 143000 PPP soon

tim23

29-12-2007, 12:17 PM

Is that the Oil & Gas weekly from Australia? If so was run by a bloke Quentin Cameron from Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast. Are you able to post the article on NOG?

Nitaa

29-12-2007, 12:43 PM

OGW have been hot on NZO and PPP for quite some time. I belive they did exceptionally well (no pun intended) out of PPP recently.

Crypto Crude

29-12-2007, 03:40 PM

bermuda

29-12-2007, 05:06 PM

JBM,
IM not worried mate... just abit pissed off...
Id be worried if I had held the OD's the whole way through....:D
It is seriously time to sell OD's if you are holding them...
There isnot any expected news in the next few months to get a big flame under the share price... But NZO is extremely undervalued and will probably do what NZO does best which is to track sideways...
Pike production pre option expiry should see NZO rising strong...
later...
:cool:
.^sc
Shrewdy,

Once the first financials are published the sp will go to $1.30......then when the new price of coking coal is confirmed at $US150 per tonne the sp will go to $1.40 and when the Kupe wildcat comes in in June the sp will go above $1.50. The oppies arent out of the money yet but it's hard to see them being worth much as the Head shares will be under pressure as people sell down to exercise their oppies.

Crypto Crude

29-12-2007, 05:56 PM

duncan macgregor

29-12-2007, 07:14 PM

I've just been reading CHCH press businessday and all the brokers picks are out for 2008...
all The Brokers made their usual 5 picks but Hamilton Hinden Green has a 6th pick which comes under 'long shot', New Zealand Oil And Gas....
also note that First NZ Capital have Pike River Coal in their top 5 picks...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY, You only have to look at the broker records of stock selections over the last few years to see how worthless their predictions are against the average punter. Successfull predictions is called market perception which has nothing at all to do with a companies fundamentals, but everything to do with your average investors perception of a companies future potential. NZO or any other company to trend up requires the trust of the market to do just that. Money in the bank, future earnings etc etc mean nothing without that trust. NZO still have to generate that trust, thats the only reason the share price is where it is today. Macdunk

bermuda

29-12-2007, 07:34 PM

SHREWDY, You only have to look at the broker records of stock selections over the last few years to see how worthless their predictions are against the average punter. Successfull predictions is called market perception which has nothing at all to do with a companies fundamentals, but everything to do with your average investors perception of a companies future potential. NZO or any other company to trend up requires the trust of the market to do just that. Money in the bank, future earnings etc etc mean nothing without that trust. NZO still have to generate that trust, thats the only reason the share price is where it is today. Macdunk

NZO are starting to generate that trust very quickly as the yardsticks keep getting ticked off and the doubters start to believe the story. You can feel it....... and sooner or later you will see a very positive period for NZO where the old views get replaced with the new.

The sentiment is changing....you only have to read the Brokers recommendations for 2008.

NZO gets positive attention

Now that really is a positive.....

the sentiment is changing...yeah, it will take a while but as more yardsticks get ticked off this great story will finally get the recognition it finally deserves. Hats off to those Brokers who have finally changed their minds about NZO.....it is appreciated.

Here's to a great 2008.

Ps As MacDunk says "Successful predictions is called market perception which has nothing at all to do with a companies fundamentals,but everything to do with your average investors perception of a companies future potential"

What is now happening is that the average investor perception is being fuelled by Brokers who are now believing the NZO story.

That is the key crunch.

I agree Macca with what you said only this time the sentiment is rapidly changing...

I mean since when???? have we had a Broker recommend NZO.

I think you know this already but it is a key sentiment turnaround for NZO

shane_m

29-12-2007, 07:52 PM

TR will live for the next 110 years and run NZO just to annoy MD.

Crypto Crude

30-12-2007, 11:16 PM

duncan macgregor- SHREWDY, You only have to look at the broker records of stock selections over the last few years to see how worthless their predictions are against the average punter.

Yes this is absolutely correct... That is why none of the main brokers picked NZO in their top 5 for the year coming...silly little rabbits... what sort of prediction is a sneaky 6th pick of 'outside shot'...
:D
.^sc

Crypto Crude

30-12-2007, 11:26 PM

My rough calculations of Pikes SP rise from 80cents in Mid August to $1.1 now should add 4cents per share to NZO, or $10.695 million to the market cap..... Sentiment should add more than this... instead SP has been flat around the times of Pike Risings and announcement of new transportation route...
:cool:
.^sc

Nitaa

03-01-2008, 02:13 AM

should be 775,000 barrels for nzo at $US91 or aboout $US70m ($NZ90m). Not bad for 5 months work. Anyone know how NZO has hedged the currency? of

Considering the grade of oil i though the average price may have been higher.

Macca, you dirty little doggy. I see you have woken up to the fact that nzo is a good play and you picked in your top 5 nz picks. well done and it definately is one of your better selections

What a year for nzo as long as oil prices can stay anywhere near these levels. If she climbs up over $100 per barrel this year then i will personally shout TR and the board a tui light each. and pls.. no one say "yea right"

digger

03-01-2008, 08:31 AM

Given Tui has delivered 6.2 million barrels and that the pressure drop will be known as well as the water cut increase the JVers should have a fairly good idea now about the size of TUI. The JVers are pretty consertave so if unfavourable news was coming we would have heard about it by now,hence i take it that TUI will be still producing well after the 41 million barrel mark has passed.

I emailed DS about 2 months ago and while his reply was not exactly precise i still take it that in this quartly we should be hearing some comment about the revenue expectations up to and just beyond KUPE production. I regard the current expected revenue dip between TUI and KUPE negative in the eyes of investers so if there is to be in reality now no dip that should be passed on to investers at the earliest possible time that revenue can be reasonable measured.
It also appears that development of both PIKE and KUPE are well on track with no large delays being reported beyond what is the industry average for these projects. I am expecting a 50% increase in SP in 2008.
A good new year to all NZO holders.

Dr_Who

03-01-2008, 09:35 AM

Oil hit $100 today!!!! WOOT!

NZO is lookig cheaper with each passing day.:)

Happy holidays everyone.

Unicorn

03-01-2008, 10:07 AM

AS OF 27th dec 07 TUI hAS PRODUCED 6.2 million barrels, and shipped 5.8million barrels at$91 USA per barrel not bad for 5months.. nog share 575 barrels at aprox $91 USA per barrel work it out .happy new year malcolm.

Hi Malcolm

Where did these figures come from? They look extremely good to me.

5 million barrels were announced on 3 December. 6.2 million on 27 December means 1.2 million in just 24 days .. which is 50,000 per day. For Tui to be constantly producing at maximum FPSO capacity after 5 months is well beyond my expectations.

With Tapis having been in the $92-$100 (US) range over the past month, and presumably with the $86.25 call options now used up, the current income stream from Tui must be extremely strong. I am looking forward to the quarterly report.

777

03-01-2008, 11:52 AM

From NZX

NZO
03/01/2008
MINE

REL: 1144 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd advises that at 14:00 hours (NZ time) on 02
January, the 17 inch hole section of the Kupe South 6 (KS-6) well had reached
the planned total depth of 2,000 metres MDRT (measured depth from rotary
table).

A wiper trip is currently underway to condition the hole prior to running and
cementing the 13-3/8 inch casing. Upon completion, the 17 inch hole sections
of the KS-7 and KS-8 wells will be drilled and cased prior to commencement of
the subsequent 12-1/4 inch sections.

Drilling of the Kupe development wells began at 22:40 hours on 19 December
2007. The 22 inch top hole sections of all three development wells have been
completed to the following depths: KS-6 560m MDRT, KS-7 566m MDRT, KS-8 568m
MDRT.

Each of the three wells will be drilled by the Ensco-107 jack-up rig to a
vertical depth of approximately 3,400 metres.

The Kupe Project drilling campaign is being undertaken on a "batch-drilling"
basis. This process involves completing the same section of each of the three
wells before proceeding to the subsequent section and is a more efficient
approach than drilling the wells separately. Drilling of the three wells is
expected to take around five months to complete.
End CA:00158976 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-01-03:11:44:54

777

03-01-2008, 11:58 AM

Buyer at 115 and sellers at 115. Not trading but no halt notice active????

zorba

03-01-2008, 01:14 PM

.
Price of LPG at all time high:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=273&objectid=10485089

Oil touches US$100 / barrel ...... and Tui hits a record month of production in December !!

Kupe drilling on track ..... Kupe economics looking more and more tasty !!

NZO to hit NZ$ 1.20 today or tomorrow ??
.

Nitaa

03-01-2008, 01:24 PM

bermuda

03-01-2008, 02:01 PM

The options are becoming are very intersting play for Nita. May still be pass the parcel but the way thi panning out, those out there can pass the parcel to me. Leverage wise i think they are on the but button about now... if nzo continue in this rich vein of form, the bigger investors will probably look at chewing these up over the next few months

Bermuda. You have a lot of knowledge about oil and especially about NZO. Congrats on your ASX effort in the competion. you absolutely wiped all of your competitors on the floor.

I suspect that the next 6 months is going to be quite something. I also agree with Brmuda on what is happening with the global markets. I expect higher volatility this year than in 07

Gold also to go over $1,000 per ounce this year and oil still on the surge.

Thanks Nita,
I always enjoy your posts and your little photo.(keeps me young)

2008 is going to be a challenging year but if you are strong on oilers you will get through ok.As I posted earlier NZO will be a little ripper...it has been a long time coming but the sentiment is rapidly changing...even your mate MacDunk will agree to that.

Still deciding on my picks but definitely going to include NZO,PRC and probably PPP.

Happy New Year.

zorba

03-01-2008, 02:28 PM

.
Tui Ends Year With Record Month

02:18pm
NZO
03/01/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1417 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Tui Ends Year With Record Month

New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited (NZOG) reports that the Tui Area Oil Fields
achieved a record month of production in December.

NZOG holds a 12.5% interest in Tui, which is situated 60 km off the Taranaki
coast.

Production from Tui began on 30 July 2007. By 31 December 2007, approximately
6.4 million barrels of oil had been produced, at an average rate of
production of more than 41,000 barrels a day.

In November, technical modifications to the production facility were
completed, allowing daily production rates to increase. As a result a monthly
production record of approximately 1.5 million barrels was achieved in
December; an average of over 48,000 barrels a day.

Tui oil is a light sweet crude that is generally sold against the regional
Tapis benchmark crude, with differentials for freight and quality. During
December the Tapis benchmark averaged around US$95 a barrel.

The oil is shipped to refineries on the east coast of Australia or in
south-east Asia. The tanker Ocean Pluto is today being loaded with 350,000
barrels.

In November 2007 proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields
were upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than
the estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was
sanctioned.

End CA:00158983 For:NZO Type:GENERAL Time:2008-01-03:14:18:01

Lion

03-01-2008, 02:39 PM

Still deciding on my picks but definitely going to include NZO,PRC and probably PPP.

Happy New Year.

Looks like a bit of a three horse race! Those 3 are popular picks, I was going to put them in mine.

duncan macgregor

03-01-2008, 03:51 PM

Thanks Nita,
I always enjoy your posts and your little photo.(keeps me young)

2008 is going to be a challenging year but if you are strong on oilers you will get through ok.As I posted earlier NZO will be a little ripper...it has been a long time coming but the sentiment is rapidly changing...even your mate MacDunk will agree to that.

Still deciding on my picks but definitely going to include NZO,PRC and probably PPP.

Happy New Year. BERMUDA, Congrats on your winning last years competition WELL DONE MY MAN ten places in front of me. Macdunk agrees with you on the ammount of money NZO is earning but that is only a part of making money in the market. What has to be worked out is the return to the shareholder either in an increased share price or by way of dividends. The sp has stagnated for three years against all expectation even although the prospects are now better than ever. They never come out with a program of what they intend doing in the future with these massive profits, the share holders have been in the dark for so long they have moved on to greener pastures. Market perception is what drives a sp up NZO has a very low element of trust amongst their owners the shareholders. I picked NZO in the competition for the last three years but i would not buy back in with my hard earned cash until they stop playing silly greedy buggers swilling at the trough. That is my perception of NZO the sp will always be lower than the fundamentals dictate as it is today, until they come out with open disclosure of intent. Macdunk

Dr_Who

03-01-2008, 04:24 PM

This company must be ripe as a T/O target now that the revenues are flowing in and the sp low at these levels.

Nitaa

03-01-2008, 04:27 PM

Watch out for any unusual volumes or price movement in the options. The best way to attack is through the back door. Then again some smart cookies at the top will have the final say with their blocking stake

arjay

03-01-2008, 05:02 PM

Although some may view that the mere ownership of shares in NZO (and hence being part of a successful company) is ample reward in itself, the SP should nevertheless rise significantly once the market sees that investment in NZO brings a return for the investment dollar. I've been rapped over the knuckles about this before, but thought I'd mention it again noting that NZO have just placed another seat in front of the troff for an additional Director. Yes, I know Bermuda I'm appearing to be negative again, however having bought my first NZO shares when the latest Director was 12 years old sorta gets me thinking that maybe I should have spent that investment money on accountant school instead.

Nitaa

03-01-2008, 05:44 PM

Agree Arjay. Not sure what the reason is for another director and some will look to feather their own nest.

DM...is that you starting to buy between 3 and 4pm? Short term gain is iminent for the day traders. Come to think of it, medium term and long term gain is looking more and more likely.

The flood of positive news will keep on coming. My biggest worry is still with Pike but they have also made some big inroads (no pun intended) of late

Pass me the parcel guys

Paddie

03-01-2008, 06:01 PM

I can't believe some on the nonsense that gets posted on NZO.

You would think that the share price has gone to $1.50, not $1.17.

Obviously holders have low expectations of share price increases.

Paddie

Nitaa

03-01-2008, 06:27 PM

Hi Padie, maybe your comment was aimed at me.

The main thing i am getting at here is not that the sp moved to any record levels etc but clearly there has been a change of sentiment in the company. Why you may ask? Well for the last 6 months nzo have continally come with good or better than expected news. This is a change from about 2 or 3 years ago when much of the announcements were pie in the sky stuff. Not this time around. The better than expected success should not be underestimated and not like the many mining companies across the dich that are only painting a rosey picture.

There is still a lot of ill feeling (and rightly so) about this stock and many that have sold have been burnt. The fact remains is that the ones who have been paitient, not just looking for the quick buck are now starting (well for some time actually) to have their investments realised.

Yes you can forget some of the antics that me and some others come up. However if you listen to the ones with knowledge and actually undertand what is being said then i think most will understand that nzo itself is no fly by nighter.

Personally i would weild the axe through some of the board but that is my view only. On the other hand, there is some very talented people on board and their experience and knowledge should also be taken into consideration. IMO the board needs a spring clean but there is many worse around. Overall the efforts of the last few years have been significant.

Like NZO or not, one can do a lot worse than hold nzo right now.

zorba

03-01-2008, 07:23 PM

.
Arjay,

Does not the new director have some experienced in mergers and aquisitions ??

Seems like he also has the right kind of energy industry background, and is young enough to put some effort into his directorship:

"Andrew [Knight] has strong commercial and professional credentials, with experience in the
management of diversified energy businesses and corporate merger and acquisition
processes.”

"Andrew Knight, 37, is a Chartered Accountant and graduate of Waikato University with a
Bachelor of Management Studies (Hons). He is General Manager Metering Business for
network infrastructure company, Vector. Previously Andrew has held executive
management roles with NGC and worked in New Zealand and Australia with The Australian
Gas Light Company, Fletcher Challenge Energy and Coopers & Lybrand"

Time will tell ..... but looks to me like a good addition to the Board.

And as for DM, the same old endless drivel, apart from the "snouts in trough" pejorative rhetoric, DM calls for some sort of specific action plan ...... hardly something NZOG would announce in detail to the wide world regarding potential M+A plans, or specific exploration plans ..... perhaps DM also wants to know the names of the target companies or where potential target exploration permits are .... get a life DM.

Growing a resource company is not just about putting one brick (ie permit) ontop of another (like wot you were used to doing in your builder days DM) but is also about growing the interlectual value and capacity of the company and its staff, ie increasing geological knowledge, as well as increasing company skills in the financial frameworks and knowledge of the resource sector, the legal issues about all aspects including M+A, plus resource sector corporate fund raising and banking issues (eg Westpac loan for Pike), etc etc .....

And to do all this a growing resource company needs skilled and diversified staff, management and Board.
.

digger

03-01-2008, 09:54 PM

arjay

03-01-2008, 10:28 PM

Zorba, I don't disagree with the credentials the new director brings to the company, let's just hope that now he's been appointed he gets on with some acquisitions for the benefit of the shareholders (or at least justifies his own existance). I will be dissapointed if he ends up as another one of the 'retires and puts himself forward for re-election' set. But, let's try not be too negative: To address Paddie's comment, I have to agree with Nita somewhat. NZO are doing brilliantly at the moment, yet the SP has only just managed to struggle back to what it was 3 years ago before NZO was producing and oil was at a fraction of the price it is now. At the moment NZO shareholders only have a rising SP to reflect their investment in this successful company, so it is little wonder that many feel very frustrated at the lack of true value reflected by the SP and are looking for reasons why.

Steve

03-01-2008, 10:33 PM

.
Does not the new director have some experienced in mergers and aquisitions ??

Seems like he also has the right kind of energy industry background, and is young enough to put some effort into his directorship:

"Andrew [Knight] has strong commercial and professional credentials, with experience in the management of diversified energy businesses and corporate merger and acquisition processes.”

Now that NZO is generating some cash, there is the opportunity for some M&A activity to obtain interests in other ventures...

the machine

03-01-2008, 11:07 PM

to me the tui production data is part of an effort by nzo to have the options excised.

will nzo have a monthly productionreport for tui? - would hope so.

watch out for a lot more "ramping"

M

Bixbite

03-01-2008, 11:40 PM

to me the tui production data is part of an effort by nzo to have the options excised.

will nzo have a monthly productionreport for tui? - would hope so.

watch out for a lot more "ramping"

M

Machine,

Try to check NZO’s site – TUI AREA OIL PROJECT. The production data is regularly renewed.

http://www.nzog.net/tui/

“To 31 December 2007: Approx 6.4 million barrels produced, 5.8 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 800,000 barrels.”

“(since 30 July 2007) As at 27 December 2007: Approx 6.2 million barrels produced, 5.8 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 775,000 barrels.”

Cheers,
Bixbite

the machine

04-01-2008, 12:09 AM

Machine,

Try to check NZO’s site – TUI AREA OIL PROJECT. The production data is regularly renewed.

http://www.nzog.net/tui/

“To 31 December 2007: Approx 6.4 million barrels produced, 5.8 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 800,000 barrels.”

“(since 30 July 2007) As at 27 December 2007: Approx 6.2 million barrels produced, 5.8 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 775,000 barrels.”

Cheers,
Bixbite

release to the market goes further and if you look at the asx, with awe & ppp having to repeat it, the coverage is very good with 3 consecutive entties in the market sensitive section

M

wk6332

04-01-2008, 06:28 AM

From the NZ Herald

Tui in tune as oil tops US$100/b
5:00AM Friday January 04, 2008

The Tui oil field has escalated production to just below its forecast peak of 50,000 barrels a day.
As oil prices top the US$100 a barrel mark, five-month old Taranaki oil field Tui has ramped up production to just below its forecast peak of 50,000 barrels a day.

Following modifications in November, production rates rose to an average of more than 48,000 barrels a day for December, or 1.5 million barrels for the month.

The oil is benchmarked against a regional crude, Tapis, which averaged around US$95 ($124) a barrel in December.

That valued the monthly output at around $186 million.

The field, 60km off the Taranaki coast, had produced about 6.4 million barrels of oil since the end of July and contains an estimated 41.7 million barrels of proved and probable reserves.

The oil is shipped to refineries on the east coast of Australia or in southeast Asia.

Estimated production for the 2007/08 year was increased to at least 11 million barrels from 10 million.

Tui partners are AWE, the operator with 42.5 per cent, Mitsui with 35 per cent, Pan Pacific Petroleum with 10 per cent and NZ Oil and Gas with 12.5 per cent
- NZPA

Unicorn

04-01-2008, 09:07 AM

From todays TUI production figures ,it is not unreasonable to get a revenue income for 2008 at 300 million or more than a dollar a share.I get this from the latest today figures with no further oil price increase which is more than likely. Also more than likely is that production in 2008 will on a daily basis more than average the that achieved so far. As someone else just said it gets better and better.

Sorry Digger, but I think your figures are unreasonably optimistic. It would require the FPSO to be producing at 100% capacity every day, for the whole year - meaning 18.3 million barrels being produced.

Current production is 48,000 barrels a day, and that has always been expected to decrease as the water cut increases. The realistic best case I can see is to average 36,000 barrels a day over the year - which indicates around 24,000 barrels a day at the end of the year. That gives an income close to $200M at current prices (which would still be a fantastic result for a company with a market cap around $300M).

The price of oil, and the exchange rate, over the year will have an enormous bearing on what the final result is. I really have no idea what will happen in either of those areas over the course of the year, but suspect that the sub-prime meltdown will in the end prove to be very detrimental to NZO shareholders. Meanwhile I just enjoy each month that passes with production and prices at current levels.

zorba

04-01-2008, 09:42 AM

.
Unicorn,

Agree with you that the sub-prime debacle has consequences for NZO, it's a serious mess and has brought US financial instituitions (particularly the three big rating agencies - S+P, Moody and Fitch) into serious disrepute, along with the Federal regulatory agencies for allowing such shoddy sub-prime CDO rip-offs.

As per the previous Tui JV announcements and see todays NZ Herald article, the Tui field is expected to deliver about 11 mmbo for 2007/2008 ......

Thus NZO share would be appox 1.38 mmbo @ say average price of US$90 barrel = US$ 124m = NZ$ 161m (NZ$/US$ = 0.77)

Less NZOG's share of annual Tui FPSO production and shipping costs of say NZ$ 30m

Therefore net Tui profit to NZOG approx NZ$ 130m for 07/08

Pretty good but some distance off NZ$ 200 million.

Because of likely increasing water cut and declining oil production over calender 2008, the Tui profit for calender 2008 will be less than NZ$ 130m ........ but maybe still around the NZ$ 100m mark (??)

Agree the final result for calender 2008 will be heavily dependent on actual oil prices and exchange rates. Water cut rates will also be a factor. Lets hope we are surprised by the direction of all three !!
.

Bilo

04-01-2008, 10:22 AM

Bilo

04-01-2008, 10:25 AM

Sorry Unicorn
I think that I am simply agreeing with you...

Unicorn

04-01-2008, 10:26 AM

Hi Zorba

The figures I gave were in response to Diggers post and were therefore best case, for income (rather than profit), for 2008 calendar, and at current ($US100) oil price.

If you are looking at profit, you need to also take off the royalty (allow 20%). But then again I think you will find the production cost is less than $30M to NZO.

You are correct that the 36,000 barrels per day (13 million barrels per year) I have assumed as best case for 2008 calendar is inconsistent with the 11 million barrels forecast for the current financial year. There are two reasons for this ..

1. 2008 calendar is 12 months production, current financial year is 11 months production

2. The 11 million barrel forecast looks very pessimistic in terms of what has been achieved to date. By mid January (halfway through the production part of the financial year) production should reach 7.1 million barrels (if current rate is maintained), leaving only 3.9 million to achieve target (being just 23,000 per day).

Tok3n

04-01-2008, 10:44 AM

bermuda

04-01-2008, 12:22 PM

Pity there's no Hector-like drill now or this year at all.

Was the original model for Tui around 60 million barrels of oil in place?

Wonder if we are still not getting significant water cut, reserves could be upgraded to around 45 million or 1/2 the worlds daily use!.

Tok3n,
NZO do have a really great opportunity to make it pretty big with the Kupe wildcat coming up in May. This could lead the way to a doubling or tripling of Kupe reserves.

Remember they built the pipeline to cope with 3 times the amount of gas currently found.

It will be a fascinating June run down to the 30th vis a vis the oppies.

Dr_Who

04-01-2008, 12:27 PM

Toddy

04-01-2008, 02:23 PM

Just sit back and relax guys. Enjoy the ride. There are predictions by the Japs that oil can go to $150 due to Asian demand (Bloomberg). If top level management NZO is stupid enough to stick their hands in the kitty litter the market will punish the sp.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vBHJpf1qiplg.asf

That would provide more than enough dosh in the NZO kitty to blow away any of Snipers rock overhangs and still leave enough for the sausage rolls at the agm.

Relax, no way, we don't want the NZO thread to become boring now, do we.

$150................ I may have to take my new SUV back.

Oiler

04-01-2008, 02:30 PM

Tok3n,
NZO do have a really great opportunity to make it pretty big with the Kupe wildcat coming up in May. This could lead the way to a doubling or tripling of Kupe reserves.

Remember they built the pipeline to cope with 3 times the amount of gas currently found.

It will be a fascinating June run down to the 30th vis a vis the oppies.

Bermuda lets hope the opppies are in the money by June. :)

The pipeline is way oversized for the projected flow rates at present as is the offshore platform and the shore facility. They have provision onshore to greatly enhance there throughput, be it condensate,gas,LPG.
Interesting side note to see the price of LPG skyrocket lately which will give NZO another increased slice of revenue.

Some months back I said on this thread that Origin would take over the Rimu field from Swift........ with that now happening look to see even more benefits flowing through the Kupe production station and into NZO coffers.
As has been said many times before on this thread "the NZ market doesnt seem to understand the difference between an exploration company and a producing oil company"

All I can say is the smart ones either hold or are buying into the company.

Dr_Who

04-01-2008, 03:55 PM

$150................ I may have to take my new SUV back.

Lexus has a hybrid SUV. Was looking at buying one, but didnt like their old outdated design. Would be interested in a new up-to-date model hybrid SUV.

Back on topic... NZO has broken through the $1.15 resistance, so may march north from here. :):) Any chart specialist out there can give us their analysis?

digger

04-01-2008, 04:28 PM

Sorry Digger, but I think your figures are unreasonably optimistic. It would require the FPSO to be producing at 100% capacity every day, for the whole year - meaning 18.3 million barrels being produced.

Current production is 48,000 barrels a day, and that has always been expected to decrease as the water cut increases. The realistic best case I can see is to average 36,000 barrels a day over the year - which indicates around 24,000 barrels a day at the end of the year. That gives an income close to $200M at current prices (which would still be a fantastic result for a company with a market cap around $300M).

The price of oil, and the exchange rate, over the year will have an enormous bearing on what the final result is. I really have no idea what will happen in either of those areas over the course of the year, but suspect that the sub-prime meltdown will in the end prove to be very detrimental to NZO shareholders. Meanwhile I just enjoy each month that passes with production and prices at current levels.

Hi Unicorn
My whole arguement here is that with the consertative stated recoverable oil now at 41.7 million barrels it is unlikely that the dip down to only 24,000 barrels at year end will not now be the case. It was the case at 27 .8 million recoverable but the new reality is now much higher. In fact we have gone up 14 million barrels so taking out 18.3 million in 2008 will still leave more at year end than the old figures would. Also i believe that the real recoverable figure will be much higher than the latest 41.7 figure.
Note I am only talking gross revenue and certainly not profit.The profit after royalties and tax and expenses will be about 60% of the gross revenue.
What will be most interesting here will be the drop off you expect this year and when we will first see evidence of this drop. I have emailed DS about this matter and expect some comment about this in the coming quartly report.
Do we have a bet at end to who is most accurate. I say 300 million and you 200 million gross revenue? Naturally a bottle of wine and conditional on no fundamental change in the nature of the company,or the world.

neopole

04-01-2008, 05:00 PM

but...........
at the end of the day, even with all this good news happening ... despite TR at the helm, this co could/might actually reward it faithful...... ?
over the last 14 years i have had 3 employers, in small companies, and have learnt that the "helmsman" can make or break a company even if the co is tarred with gold.
my first boss in this time period was young and a go getter and built a very well known auckland company, the second boss bought the company and it crumbled in a few years, luckily he learnt fast and is re-inventing the company. my 3rd boss was given a company with decades of goodwill and respect, and even though he is a great boss and runs his company well, it has stagnated and other companies are moving into his zone. unless he expands or develops or energises the company, it will eventually fizzle away.
now TR is a boss that strived hard to build a company, and then built a fortress around it to protect it, and over the decades it has turned into a crusty old fashioned entity...... true..... its in the limelight now, but it has the conitation of "olde boys club" all over it.
there is enormus value attached to TR's company, and enormus potential too, but the helmsman in control is guarding the coffers, and therefore its future, like a 90 year old horder.
sooner or later, TR will have to face the fact that "his" company belongs to the shareholders. as a boss....... TR is the perfect man to protect a company in bad times, or gutsy enough to build a new one, but to propel a company foward in its finest hour he doesnt have the personelity.
IMHO i can see this company being a target for hostile takeover, and TR will be the only shareholder who will fight it........ he has alianated himself from his core asset.........
the shareholders.
i wonder if investors are now buying the stock for its wealth under TR's direction, or buying the stock for its potential wealth with a more energized helmsman?