NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[mistaTea]

Interesting article for holders.....ACC to play a key role in shareholder sale vote.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/117030158/new-zealand-oil-and-gas-takeover-looms

Very interesrting article, thanks for sharing.

The ACC vote is important, but even if they vote for it...OGOG will still need a high turnout to get this across the line.

And I believe ACC were looking for a figure more in the 85c range, so will be interesting to see if they fold at 74c.

[mistaTea]

Very interesrting article, thanks for sharing.

The ACC vote is important, but even if they vote for it...OGOG will still need a high turnout to get this across the line.

And I believe ACC were looking for a figure more in the 85c range, so will be interesting to see if they fold at 74c.

Also, if ACC had voted yes by now I would expect OGOG to be shouting from the rooftop that their largest minority holder is supportive of their offer.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Also, if ACC had voted yes by now I would expect OGOG to be shouting from the rooftop that their largest minority holder is supportive of their offer.

Exactly. ACC are at least smart not to support too early.

[mistaTea]

Exactly. ACC are at least smart not to support too early.

Yeah, ACC have a whole beauracratic process they have to go through before deciding what to do with any given security anyway. So that takes time.

I think that recent article in stuff is trying to invent a narrative that is not supported by reality.

Any notion that ACC will (ironically) decide whether or not an Oil & Gas company domiciled in NZ is taken over by a foreign entity is not realistic in my view.

If the vote is close then ACC could be the deciding vote, sure.

However I don't think this vote is going to be close at all (with or without ACC's support for the NO team).

Let's see the final tally in less than 2 weeks...but I think much more than 25% of the minority holders who bother to vote will say NO.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281603

Another piece from Gaynor reinforcing how minority shareholders have been let down.

It is somewhat speculative, but he does raise a good point about how the share market is likely to react as we approach the Ironbark drill.

It is highly likely we will see a significant increase in trading volume as we get closer, and then as drilling begins. The increased demand will probably push the SP up a fair bit (just like it did with Kohakatai - a much smaller prospect).

So even speculators who have no intention of sticking around for findings of the drill may well be better served to vote down this current low ball offer, and sit tight for the next 6-9 months until the real action begins.

[mistaTea]

The other thing that strikes me is how much we are continuing to pay the likes of Andrew Jeffries.

Given 70% of the business is owned by OGOG; and given nothing has really been happening with NZOG for some time now while we wait for the Ironbark drill to happen...

What value is he really adding? We are paying him over $850K a year - and for what?

I can’t see any special achievements from him that would not have happened anyway with majority owner OGOG facilitating deals and discussions with large players (given OGOG is a large player in the industry too).

They could save a lot of money right away by sacking Andrew, and adding NZOG as another channel to Alistair McGregors duties as CEO of OGOG. Pay him an extra $250K higher duties allowance and we bank a saving of $600K.

We would get the exact same business outcomes we are currently getting only Andrew won’t have his snout in the trough.

[Chippie]

The other thing that strikes me is how much we are continuing to pay the likes of Andrew Jeffries.

Given 70% of the business is owned by OGOG; and given nothing has really been happening with NZOG for some time now while we wait for the Ironbark drill to happen...

What value is he really adding? We are paying him over $850K a year - and for what?

I can’t see any special achievements from him that would not have happened anyway with majority owner OGOG facilitating deals and discussions with large players (given OGOG is a large player in the industry too).

They could save a lot of money right away by sacking Andrew, and adding NZOG as another channel to Alistair McGregors duties as CEO of OGOG. Pay him an extra $250K higher duties allowance and we bank a saving of $600K.

We would get the exact same business outcomes we are currently getting only Andrew won’t have his snout in the trough.

I wonder how much we are continuing to pay for any of the directors? They have sat on a war chest of capital for such a long time unable to make any investment decisions. And now they want to screw over all minor shareholders just before they have some really interesting prospects.

To make it worse the Takeovers Panel have also rolled over which shows what is wrong with the NZX and even the NZ government for continuing to let oversea companies rip on New Zealand shareholders over and over again. E.g. Southern Petroleum.

It is a real shame that OGOC already own so much of the company, that is what stops any other offers. ACC would be in great position of making a counter offer to take over for all of NZO at ~ 78 cents, although the current Government would be the problem with that idea.
Really disappointing that the average NZ investor is on a hiding to nothing with no support from any corner, except for perhaps Bryan Gaynor and the NZ Herald?

Good luck to everyone especially our larger minor shareholders such as Digger and mistaTea!

[digger]

I wonder how much we are continuing to pay for any of the directors? They have sat on a war chest of capital for such a long time unable to make any investment decisions. And now they want to screw over all minor shareholders just before they have some really interesting prospects.

To make it worse the Takeovers Panel have also rolled over which shows what is wrong with the NZX and even the NZ government for continuing to let oversea companies rip on New Zealand shareholders over and over again. E.g. Southern Petroleum.

It is a real shame that OGOC already own so much of the company, that is what stops any other offers. ACC would be in great position of making a counter offer to take over for all of NZO at ~ 78 cents, although the current Government would be the problem with that idea.
Really disappointing that the average NZ investor is on a hiding to nothing with no support from any corner, except for perhaps Bryan Gaynor and the NZ Herald?

Good luck to everyone especially our larger minor shareholders such as Digger and mistaTea!

Thanks for that Chippie, although I am wanting more than luck. OGOG still has a few hurdles to go before they rip us all off.

Yes the takeover panel was such a disappointment you get left wondering what they exist for. That there can be not liquidation valuation because OGOG owns 70% and no other company can buy in is at best stupid. So govt and councils can not value our farms and houses because the owners hold more than 70%. ?????

Guess it will come down to the vote,the court and then the govt to change the law.

[tim23]

My wife is a holder and got phone call Friday from rep on behalf of bidder, she has already voted no!!

[Marilyn Munroe]

My wife is a holder and got phone call Friday from rep on behalf of bidder, she has already voted no!!

That's a tell.

It tells us the owners are concerned the sheep are wandering all over the paddock and have sent out the sheep dogs to round them up.

It also tells us they still think the sheep can be yarded in the woolshed and fleeced.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[tim23]

Agree - need another 10c at least!

[mistaTea]

Agree - need another 10c at least!

I think 84c would give them a 50/50 shot at it. Could well be enough to get the deal over the line as ACC are likely to go for it.

I know of a large block of shares though who wouldn't even look at the offer unless it at least began with a 9.

I suspect this really is the full and final offer though. OGOG are happy to pay a price that effectively gives them a free shot at Ironbark...but once you start getting into the 85c+ region they would actually be paying a fair price for the existing assets. Then, if Ironbark was not successful the cash spent drilling would be a loss to them (since they did not get the $24M cash earmarked for the drill for free by purchasing the business for a discount to NTA).

They can buy on market up to 5% of the total shares outstanding per annum I think. If the SP stays low, perhaps they will do this instead to increase their exposure to Ironbark. Clearly not their preferred option, but there are two separate financial years between now and the drill...so I guess they could potentially pick up another 10% of the total shares if they wanted to.

[digger]

Agree - need another 10c at least!

Hope not. They have promised if we stop this 74 cents one there will be no further price rise offer. Probably means that there will be no more higher offers under the scheme of arrangments. OGOG could then then offer higher under the normal takeover. I am suprised they did not do that in the first instance as it is more logical and would get them some soft sellers taking part without the larger holders having to organize a block. Under the scheme of arrangments we have to block or else the combined weight of small holders can take us all down.
Anyways if we can stop this 74 cents lowball offer I hope they will bugger off and we can all share in the drill. We would be doing OGOG a favor by blocking this second offer afterall there is only a 5% chance of success if you can believe OGOG.. There are still people who believe in a flat earth so there will probable be still people who believe anything OGOG says.

[mistaTea]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/117054125/supply-vessels-not-connected-to-barque-prospect-work

I find this article interesting.

Who knows what is actually going on down there - I am sure minoroty holders will be the last to ever find out.

However, it's not what Pagani is saying...it's what he is NOT saying. His comment is the bare minimum, which makes me think there could be more going on.

How much more? Who knows.

I wonder why those two supply vessels are wasting their time down that part of the world anyway. Northington have already clarified that Clipper is worthless.

[BWH]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/117054125/supply-vessels-not-connected-to-barque-prospect-work

I find this article interesting.

Who knows what is actually going on down there - I am sure minoroty holders will be the last to ever find out.

However, it's not what Pagani is saying...it's what he is NOT saying. His comment is the bare minimum, which makes me think there could be more going on.

How much more? Who knows.

I wonder why those two supply vessels are wasting their time down that part of the world anyway. Northington have already clarified that Clipper is worthless.

These are the two vessels which were contracted to work with the COSL Prospector in Taranaki. They drilled one well for Tamarind and then ran out of money it seems, so are now waiting for OMV to take over. They will drill some holes in Taranaki and then maybe take the rig down to drill in the GSB. There is debate as to whether they will use the rig or get a drillship in from what I understand. The two ships are simply laid up there with a minimum crew, as there is no room in New Plymouth or Nelson for long term lay-up.

[mistaTea]

These are the two vessels which were contracted to work with the COSL Prospector in Taranaki. They drilled one well for Tamarind and then ran out of money it seems, so are now waiting for OMV to take over. They will drill some holes in Taranaki and then maybe take the rig down to drill in the GSB. There is debate as to whether they will use the rig or get a drillship in from what I understand. The two ships are simply laid up there with a minimum crew, as there is no room in New Plymouth or Nelson for long term lay-up.

Indeed. All true.

However with this lot you can never be sure anymore about what else is happening behind the scenes.

For example, it would not surprise me at all if NZOG were in advanced farm-in discussions (potentially with OGOG farming in directly themselves). That they would wait to get the SoA through and then a month or two later sign and announce a deal to commit to the Barque drill.

So when I read tight-lipped replies like that from Pagani...it doesn't necessarily make me jump to conspiracy theories etc, however it does make me question what is going on.

[mistaTea]

They could save a lot of money right away by sacking Andrew, and adding NZOG as another channel to Alistair McGregors duties as CEO of OGOG. Pay him an extra $250K higher duties allowance and we bank a saving of $600K.

We would get the exact same business outcomes we are currently getting only Andrew won’t have his snout in the trough.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12282174

David McLean is getting paid far too much in my view.

However, the man is overseeing a business that has produced over NZ$1B in cash earnings this past year.

How the Hell does Andrew Jeffries command a salary equal to approx one third of McLean's obscene earnings again?

Christ, you could pay me a lot less than $850K to sit on cash and go along with whatever OGOG tell me to do. Money for jam.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12282208

A different point of view - Gavin Evans paints a grim picture.

Though my position is unchanged, it is good to get different perspectives.

[blackcap]

Behind the paywall but this is very interesting:

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/activist-fights-over-nzo-takeover

Briefly Activist investor James Dunphy insists the valuation methods in the independent report were so flawed as to be false and has called on the panel to hold an inquiry under Section 32 of the Takeovers Act to examine the evidence under oath.

The former investment banker has now published a presentation of his analysis on his website, makethemaccountable.com.au

[blackcap]

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/2019/11/05/nzog-a-disgrace-dont-accept-oggs-offer/

Some pretty interesting stuff in the NBR article and some great points in above link (free) about valuation methodologies.

[mistaTea]

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/2019/11/05/nzog-a-disgrace-dont-accept-oggs-offer/

Some pretty interesting stuff in the NBR article and some great points in above link (free) about valuation methodologies.

He takes a different approach to me, however we both seem to land on a similar value for existing assets. We also expect to be paid some reasonable sum for full control of the company and Ironbark etc.

Clearly, I am in full agreement with James with regards to the valuation model used by Northington falling short and undervaluing our business.

However, proving that they have actively attempted to mislead the market, so far as the high bar the Takeovers Panel use, is quite another thing. I discussed this with another large minority shareholder the other day.

If we remove ourselves from the current attempted theft of our business...we would hopefully agree that the high bar the TO panel use is a necessary evil. Otherwise, there would be zero takeovers because anyone could say the purchaser is misleading the market because they used an 'incorrect' valuation methodology. It would become chaos.

And I do believe shareholders do have some responsibility to understand the business they own, and form their own view of how much their business is worth. I mean, if they don't understand the underlying value of their business - why own it in the first place?

There will be a number of small parcel shareholders who have just bought into NZOG as a punt, and will have no real understanding of the business or how much it is worth. We would not be able to influence these speculators even if we tried.

Fortunately, there is a very solid base of large minority holders who also disagree with the valuation methodology and will be voting NO accordingly. If OGOG manage to get an incredibly high voter turnout, and managed to convince an enormous amount of unsuspecting shareholders to vote YES by phoning them and begging them...then maybe they could get this over the line. But I still think that the odds of OGOG succeeding are slim if not zilch.

All that matters now is the vote tally next Thursday.

Oh and I did find the response from Pagani that James included in his powerpoint very amusing. John Pagani has never been rude to me like that, however I have seen emails he has sent to others he does not like - very unprofessional!

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/343916/311380.pdf

Is this standard practice?

[RTM]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/343916/311380.pdf

Is this standard practice?

Sorry....don't know.
Hope it galvanises those who may not have voted to get out and vote AGAINST.

[blackcap]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/343916/311380.pdf

Is this standard practice?

Its not something I have seen before. However with a "normal" takeover every 1% increment is usually announced by the bidder when acceptances flow in. But this is showing voting intention which I have never seen before. Wonder what the play is here.

[mistaTea]

Wonder what the play is here.

Very curious.

If it is not a compulsory course of action, then OGOG are choosing to do this.

If that is true, then why would OGOG choose to make NZOG announce daily progress?

Well, they wouldn't choose to do this if the current voting tally was in their favour - if they had it in the bag.

So I would have to assume that they are well short of the required votes, and by publishing the results daily they hope to galvanise fence-sitters to take action and vote for the scheme.

A hope that will be in vain.

[blackcap]

NZSA has just come out and stated that they will vote proxies AGAINST the Scheme.

Gist of it is they are still not happy with valuation methodologies and also say independent directors not good enough job extracting value for shareholders and credibility undermined by recommending initial 62 cent offer which was subsequently raised to 74.

[mistaTea]

NZSA has just come out and stated that they will vote proxies AGAINST the Scheme.

Gist of it is they are still not happy with valuation methodologies and also say independent directors not good enough job extracting value for shareholders and credibility undermined by recommending initial 62 cent offer which was subsequently raised to 74.

Do you have a link or other information source you can share? Fantastic news, and they are dead right - what credibility do the 'independent' directors have now (if they ever had any)? They jubilantly expounded the benefits to shareholders for selling out @62c. After watching which way the wind was blowing, oopsie! Did we say 62c? No that was silly...increase that by 20% to 74c...

When this latest attempt fails, it will be even more confounding if OGOG come back with 85c later on! Let's hope they are true to their word and let it be after this.

[blackcap]

Do you have a link or other information source you can share? Fantastic news, and they are dead right - what credibility do the 'independent' directors have now (if they ever had any)? They jubilantly expounded the benefits to shareholders for selling out @62c. After watching which way the wind was blowing, oopsie! Did we say 62c? No that was silly...increase that by 20% to 74c...

When this latest attempt fails, it will be even more confounding if OGOG come back with 85c later on! Let's hope they are true to their word and let it be after this.

I do have a pdf, but its subscription material (for every listed company meeting they have a commentary about the resolutions and which way they intend to vote and why) so I am not really sure how much I am allowed to divulge/pass on etc.

But its good news and shows that the NZSA has not bowed to any pressure either.

https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/

I see its behind a lock on their website so the only suggestion I can pass on to any shareholders is to join, give them your standing proxy (for all nz listed companies) and also get a wealth of information. They also report on all AGM's with their insight etc. Only $145 (from memory) per annum.

[digger]

NZSA has just come out and stated that they will vote proxies AGAINST the Scheme.

Gist of it is they are still not happy with valuation methodologies and also say independent directors not good enough job extracting value for shareholders and credibility undermined by recommending initial 62 cent offer which was subsequently raised to 74.

I did an update at the last Hamilton NZSA meeting. Spoke about the failure of the 62 cent SOA and stated that the 74 cent one is still miles too low. I thanked the NZSA for voting against the 62 cent offer and concluded by asking that NZSA vote against the 74 SOA as well.
Great to hear that that is the case ,but until now I was left wondering what NZSA was up to. Was just about to email them for an update,so good to get this report Blackcap

[blackcap]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/credibility-nz-oil-gas-directors-questioned

Behind the paywall but commenting on the NZSA thing I posted yesterday.

Also voting intentions are out. 40% votes cast. Already more Against then For.

[mistaTea]

By the time the report is run on Monday morning, there are likely to be at least 12 million shares against.

That would mean OGOG would need to get a total of 36 or 37 million shares to vote FOR to have a chance. They have less than 8 million right now.

[mistaTea]

What do the 2,397,795 discretionary shares relate to?

Shares that have been given to someone else to proxy for them?

If so, a bunch of those will have NZSA as their proxy and will vote AGAINST.

[mistaTea]

By the time the report is run on Monday morning, there are likely to be at least 12 million shares against.

That would mean OGOG would need to get a total of 36 or 37 million shares to vote FOR to have a chance. They have less than 8 million right now.

Just to put this into a bit more context... once the Monday tally is read it, OGOG would need a 95% voter turnout to have SOME chance of getting this deal done.

In other words, it's over. They just need to cancel the special meeting now - save everyone time and hassle having to turn up to a pointless meeting.

And then stay true to their word, and leave well alone given this offer was 'full and final'.

[mistaTea]

Shame, the stock price has already dropped damn near 10% to 65c.

All the speculators hoping to make a quick buck jumping ship I suppose in an attempt to realise whatever gains they still can.

With a little luck the SP will tank to 50c again :t_up:

[Vaygor1]

Shame, the stock price has already dropped damn near 10% to 65c.

All the speculators hoping to make a quick buck jumping ship I suppose in an attempt to realise whatever gains they still can....

... or jumping out in order to jump back in cheaper.

Either way, given today's Share Price drop, the speculators don't think the SoA is going to fly... or at least have serious doubts.

For those who are in it for the long haul, today is a good news day. \(0,0)/

[Joshuatree]

CUE Annual Report to Shareholders 72 pages 5.3MB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02170776)

They are excited about Ironbark, featured 3 times.

[Sideshow Bob]

CUE Annual Report to Shareholders 72 pages 5.3MB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02170776)

They are excited about Ironbark, featured 3 times.

CUE colouring-in dept must not have got the memo.....

[blackcap]

CUE Annual Report to Shareholders 72 pages 5.3MB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02170776)

They are excited about Ironbark, featured 3 times.

Thanks JT. What is more interesting too is that Rod Ritchie is a director of CUE. Hello!

[mistaTea]

CUE Annual Report to Shareholders 72 pages 5.3MB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02170776)

They are excited about Ironbark, featured 3 times.

Hang on a second. I read (and re-read) Alistair's opening remarks...he seems overjoyed about the Ironbark prospect! Why has he not told Cue shareholders the truth?!

The truth that the project is 95% sure to fail and they may as well kiss their A$11.5M held in escrow goodbye?

[Carpenterjoe]

Very curious.

If it is not a compulsory course of action, then OGOG are choosing to do this.

If that is true, then why would OGOG choose to make NZOG announce daily progress?

Well, they wouldn't choose to do this if the current voting tally was in their favour - if they had it in the bag.

So I would have to assume that they are well short of the required votes, and by publishing the results daily they hope to galvanise fence-sitters to take action and vote for the scheme.

A hope that will be in vain.

Suppose underdog tactic, drive the market price lower on failing vote. Holders feel like they are loosing money and decide to sell at the higher voting price.

[Vaygor1]

Here is the link to a Draft 2009 U.S. report concerning the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling. https://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~rogaway/classes/188/materials/bp.pdf

The entire draft makes very interesting reading but of particular note is a paragraph on Page 8 taken from the U.S Energy Information Administration...

"Advances in exploring the deepwater of the Gulf of Mexico relied in large part on improvements in seismic technology. As a result of these advances, the percentage of wells drilled in the Gulf where 3-D seismic technology was employed increased from 5 percent in 1989 to 80 percent in 1996. The success rate of exploratory offshore wells shot up once 3-D seismology and other improvements became common. Between 1985 and 1997, the offshore exploratory success rate for the major U.S. companies increased from 36 percent to 51 percent."

... and that was 10 years ago.

5% ... Pffft

[Beagle]

Good luck with Ironbark folks.

[mistaTea]

Here is the link to a Draft 2009 U.S. report concerning the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling. https://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~rogaway/classes/188/materials/bp.pdf

The entire draft makes very interesting reading but of particular note is a paragraph on Page 8 taken from the U.S Energy Information Administration...

"Advances in exploring the deepwater of the Gulf of Mexico relied in large part on improvements in seismic technology. As a result of these advances, the percentage of wells drilled in the Gulf where 3-D seismic technology was employed increased from 5 percent in 1989 to 80 percent in 1996. The success rate of exploratory offshore wells shot up once 3-D seismology and other improvements became common. Between 1985 and 1997, the offshore exploratory success rate for the major U.S. companies increased from 36 percent to 51 percent."

... and that was 10 years ago.

5% ... Pffft

Very interesting. Fish's friend (who used to be in the industry) is adamant that BP don't go for these offshore explorations unless they think the odds are 50:50.

So what you shared reinforces that.

[digger]

Very curious.

If it is not a compulsory course of action, then OGOG are choosing to do this.

If that is true, then why would OGOG choose to make NZOG announce daily progress?

Well, they wouldn't choose to do this if the current voting tally was in their favour - if they had it in the bag.

So I would have to assume that they are well short of the required votes, and by publishing the results daily they hope to galvanise fence-sitters to take action and vote for the scheme.

A hope that will be in vain.

You could be right but an alternative view is that they are slowly telling the market to 74 cent SOA offer has failed.So we all including me have to watch very carefully whether this meeting on the 14th in Wellington will take place or not.
Do I book a flight or not?????

Guess that question is the blind leading the blind,as clearly no one really knows at this stage

Who is going -if on???

[blackcap]

You could be right but an alternative view is that they are slowly telling the market to 74 cent SOA offer has failed.So we all including me have to watch very carefully whether this meeting on the 14th in Wellington will take place or not.
Do I book a flight or not?????

Guess that question is the blind leading the blind,as clearly no one really knows at this stage

Who is going -if on???

I will be going, but I am lucky that for me its a train ride and a stroll to get there. (if its on that is).

[digger]

So is there a minimum time when the company have to let us know,or can they just leave us with a sign on the door when we arrive. Anyone what can bull sh-t us that Ironbank has only a 5% chance of success,and would invest in it can say or do anything.

[blackcap]

So is there a minimum time when the company have to let us know,or can they just leave us with a sign on the door when we arrive. Anyone what can bull sh-t us that Ironbank has only a 5% chance of success,and would invest in it can say or do anything.

I suggest you take this up with the company in question. John Pagani being the communications director (or whatever the title is) is probably the best place to begin.

[mistaTea]

You could be right but an alternative view is that they are slowly telling the market to 74 cent SOA offer has failed.So we all including me have to watch very carefully whether this meeting on the 14th in Wellington will take place or not.
Do I book a flight or not?????

Guess that question is the blind leading the blind,as clearly no one really knows at this stage

Who is going -if on???

I am 99% sure that the Monday vote tally will be approx 13M.

If 100% of minority shareholders voted we needed approx 12.7M to block it. So by Monday it should be clear that it is mathematically not possible for the deal to succeed.

My expectation would be that they would announce that they accept the deal will not happen, and the special meeting on Thursday is cancelled (since it is pointless).

I was not going to go even if the meeting is on. Might pay to wait until after the Monday NZX announcements if you were going to go but haven't booked flights yet.

[mistaTea]

In about half an hour we should have the latest tally - and hopefully a notification that the special meeting has been cancelled.

I tend to agree with digger and other posters that this has been a way for OGOG to signal to the market that they have failed hopelessly to attract enough sellers...thereby allowing them to cancel the pointless Thursday meeting.

[Not too Flash]

Don't think they can cancel the meeting until tomorrow - the announcement on Friday says

"Shareholders have the right to change their vote at any time prior to the cut-off time for submitting postal/electronic votes and proxies, being 10am on 12 November 2019."

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/344087/311574.pdf

Game over.

[trader_jackson]

interesting that most shareholders have voted for the scheme (outnumbering those against by over 2:1). I suppose there are many who are just happy to get some money for their NZO shares higher than the share price has been for years.

[mistaTea]

interesting that most shareholders have voted for the scheme (outnumbering those against by over 2:1). I suppose there are many who are just happy to get some money for their NZO shares higher than the share price has been for years.

I think about 4 million shares traded around 62c. Then a chunk more around 72c.

I imagine Most of these shares would have voted for the deal to try and make a quick gain.

Virtually zero long term investors would stand for this clumsy attempt to fondle us.

[mistaTea]

Haha my old mate talking to the NBR - his incredible depth of understanding around microcap stocks’ trading patterns is breath taking.

He finishes up with NZOG soon - I am sure Warren Buffett will strike while the iron is hot to gain his services for Berkshire Hathaway.

And here I was thinking that illiquid small cap stocks more often than not have discrepancies between price and intrinsic value! But therein lies the opportunity!

“ NZO spokesman John Pagani said the company did not generally comment on the share price, “but as a general issue you would expect that if the market valued the company above the offer and voting indicated it would not be carried, the share price would go up.”

I should know by now that efficient market theory is fully applicable to NZOG! Damn.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

After all the back and forth on this forum, I'm now tempted to dip in if the price reverts to 62c. Looks like a wild ride to be a holder!

[digger]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/344087/311574.pdf

Game over.

Yes looks like it. I will not bother getting a flight. At the last day I can always drive to Wellington if necessary.
Some small holders might change their minds but the larger holders are firm and against the second low ball offer. This is very good news for OGOG as Ironbank has only a 5% chance of success,according to there own bulls-t so by this failing they are able to off load some of the risk onto us. Good tops.
Bring on Ironbank

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/votes-add-rejection-nz-oil-gas-takeover

Latest NBR describing the spanking management just received from minority holders.

Asked whether independent directors Rosalind Archer and Rod Ritchie would resign if the shareholders’ rejection of the deal was confirmed, he said they would not.
“No grounds exist for them to resign,” he said.
“You would have to say, given the offer is a 50% premium to where the share price was, would people seriously say they didn’t want independent directors to put that offer in front of them?”

Actually, John the Wise, I would expect the majority owner of the business to approach minority holders first to get a sense of what price would be reasonable before proceeding. Confidentiality Agreements can be singed preventing said shareholders from saying anything etc to prevent insider trading.

Fairfax and the Tower Insurance Board did this very thing before launching a takeover bid. Their bid ultimately failed because Vero swooped in and effectively blocked them...however Fairfax had the blessing of two very large shareholders before they made their move.

The fact these guys don't think they should all resign, and actually seem to think that minority shareholders should be grateful for their attempt at a stick-up just blows my mind.

[Wiremu]

Like everything that seems to be coming out of NZO these days the critical piece of information is missing.

The vote is all about the votes of minority shareholders, so it lists the % of votes cast which is meaningless unless 100% of minority shareholders vote, the % of all voting rights in the company which is completely meaningless in this context, and nowhere does it show the % of minority votes cast which is the only statistic with any relevance whatsoever.

Instead we have to caculate that ourselves if we want to understand what is going on. I now think i can see how they get 5% out of 25%, they use meaningless figures.

[mistaTea]

Like everything that seems to be coming out of NZO these days the critical piece of information is missing.

The vote is all about the votes of minority shareholders, so it lists the % of votes cast which is meaningless unless 100% of minority shareholders vote, the % of all voting rights in the company which is completely meaningless in this context, and nowhere does it show the % of minority votes cast which is the only statistic with any relevance whatsoever.

Instead we have to caculate that ourselves if we want to understand what is going on. I now think i can see how they get 5% out of 25%, they use meaningless figures.

Absolutely wiremu - there are too many of these creative uses of statistics now to put it down to chance or just plain ignorance.

have just had one hell of a spanking - and a very public one too. So they will use whatever statistics that can to try and save face.

NBR posted a comment of mine, however Tim Hunter edited out a crucial sentence. He did not want to sully the NBR with my rantings.

I suggested John the Wise stick to licking envelopes and leave market speculation to those who have a clue.

I mean, I thought it was pretty funny.

[mistaTea]

... and nowhere does it show the % of minority votes cast which is the only statistic with any relevance whatsoever.


For those who can't be bothered pulling out the calculator...of votes cast as at 5PM Sunday...62.4% have rejected the offer.

As wiremu points out, that is the only statistic that is meaningful. With a result like that, instead of offering options of FOR and AGAINST it should have been out of FOR and UP YOURS.

[blackcap]

Absolutely wiremu - there are too many of these creative uses of statistics now to put it down to chance or just plain ignorance.

These b@stards have just had one hell of a spanking - and a very public one too. So they will use whatever statistics that can to try and save face.

NBR posted a comment of mine, however Tim Hunter edited out a crucial sentence. He did not want to sully the NBR with my rantings.

I suggested John the Wise stick to licking envelopes and leave market speculation to those who have a clue.

I mean, I thought it was pretty funny.

Now that this SOA has been scuppered, I wonder what their next play will be. Will they make another attempt via the more traditional on market route or will they just wait it out till the SP falls and investors get bored? I am guessing they wanted the full 100% for the Ironbark drill? If not they can play the long game and if Ironbark does not meet expectations mop up the remainder of the cash and assets for about 50 cents and disillusioned holders sell out?
Then again if they want the full 100% for the Ironbark they will need to get a move on and might have to pay a pretty penny. Either way it is interestingly poised.

Now as to the credibility of Rosalind and Ritchie? Do OGOG even want them to stay on as independents? Because they have not served their purpose well (I am assuming here) and if I were in Og's shoes I would want other independents on the board who are perceived to be more credible and useful to their endgame. The current CEO and independents and exec team may well be sweating slightly as well as it may be those who OGOG have relied on to get the deal across the line (being familiar with NZ culture/conditions etc) and have failed miserably.

[Beagle]

If Ironbark is a failure this could easily sink below 50 cents, perhaps well below that level. I think they'll wait you guru's out...

[mistaTea]

Now that this SOA has been scuppered, I wonder what their next play will be. Will they make another attempt via the more traditional on market route or will they just wait it out till the SP falls and investors get bored? I am guessing they wanted the full 100% for the Ironbark drill? If not they can play the long game and if Ironbark does not meet expectations mop up the remainder of the cash and assets for about 50 cents and disillusioned holders sell out?
Then again if they want the full 100% for the Ironbark they will need to get a move on and might have to pay a pretty penny. Either way it is interestingly poised.

Now as to the credibility of Rosalind and Ritchie? Do OGOG even want them to stay on as independents? Because they have not served their purpose well (I am assuming here) and if I were in Og's shoes I would want other independents on the board who are perceived to be more credible and useful to their endgame. The current CEO and independents and exec team may well be sweating slightly as well as it may be those who OGOG have relied on to get the deal across the line (being familiar with NZ culture/conditions etc) and have failed miserably.

Well, I doubt we will be fortunate enough for OGOG to just leave well alone. There is just too much money to be made - and they know damn well the odds of success in Ironbark are much higher than 5% (probably 5 - 10 times that). They also know that NZOG farmed in cheap, given Cue desperately needed to get the deal done.

They also know that Clipper is definitely going to get drilled. I expect OGOG to farm in directly. Beach already holds 50% and I am sure BP could be talked around to take 20% or so. All speculation on my part, of course, but I just can't see them letting Clipper go...when that was the main reason they outbid Zeta from control of NZOG.

I also think that Alistair McGregor will be in a tight spot with his superiors. They will be wondering just how the hell was he unable to purchase 30% of a microcap stock...given they already own 70%?! I hope for his sake their finance people don't look too closely at the offer he made. Given the massive upside in Ironbark and Clipper...and given the enormous benefits they would have (in terms of flexibility moving forward) by taking 100% control and delisting... why the hell would anybody try to offer a price below existing asset value and hope 'old Kiwi' was thick enough to go for it?

What will their next move be? Who knows mate. They could go for the hostile takeover path and start buying up I suppose. They could vacuum up quite a lot of shares for relatively cheap this way I reckon (sub 80c).

They could hit 90% for a relatively cheap price and then pony up a bit more for the remaining stubborn shareholders who go to court.

[mistaTea]

If Ironbark is a failure this could easily sink below 50 cents, perhaps well below that level. I think they'll wait you guru's out...

Yes, yes, yessss! As digger has pointed out many times - we 'gurus' have done OGOG a huge favour by blocking this.

I am sure OGOG are praying that Ironbark fails now so we can all lose lots of money :t_up:

[blackcap]

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/2019/11/07/nzog-dr-archer-responds/

[blackcap]

questions have been put to independent directors.

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/NZOG_LETTER_10.24.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Votes For is rising...

[blackcap]

Votes For is rising...

But they have another 9 minutes and its not going to happen. 13m against is big enough to block even if they get ALL other shareholders to vote For.

[Bart]

But they have another 9 minutes and its not going to happen. 13m against is big enough to block even if they get ALL other shareholders to vote For.
Nailbiting stuff. And what about the Russians meddling? And 788 in favour, 347 against suggests more than two-thirds in favour - do they not realize what is at stake? Probably not following this blog, and believing the 5%

[mistaTea]

And 788 in favour, 347 against suggests more than two-thirds in favour - do they not realize what is at stake? Probably not following this blog, and believing the 5%

All that matters is how many shares were voted - not how many individual shareholders voted.

[Chippie]

questions have been put to independent directors.

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/NZOG_LETTER_10.24.pdf

This is an excellent letter. Thanks for making the considerable time to write it. Great work!

[blackcap]

This is an excellent letter. Thanks for making the considerable time to write it. Great work!

Hi Chippie, for the record, it is not my letter. The site is owned and operated I believe by James Dunphy. But yes he has produced some excellent work. I was just posting a link to his site which is open to view.

Hope that clarifies any confusion. (your post could be interpreted that I wrote it, but I presume you meant thanks to James for writing it)

By the way, I see the meeting is still on. NZO have not yet called off the meeting. Wonder how late it will be before they call it off. If they do not call it off I will be attending.

[Marilyn Munroe]

A report which twists the facts to support the narrative only has value if the recipients of the report are convinced by it

If you are a rascal director who wants to pull the wool over minority shareholders eyes who are you not going to call?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[blackcap]

No worries I have done that now.

[Lion]

mistaTea, you may be able to clarify this, but isn't there still a possibility of votes being cast at the meeting that could still pass the SoA? And, I believe people could attend the meeting and change their existing postal or internet vote - isn't that right? Is that why they still haven't cancelled Thursday's meeting? I can't believe this awful SoA could pass now, but if it is at all possible - well, stranger things have happened.

Thanks, blackcap.

[mistaTea]

It is theoretically possible for the SOA to pass on Thursday.

As at the last count there were enough AGAINST votes to block the SOA (even if they miraculously achieved a 100% turnout).

However as you point out - minority holders who turn up on Thursday can change their vote.

But of the roughly 13 million votes, I know of about 8 million at least that would def not vote FOR.

That means OGOG would need over 24 million to get the deal done. So if 5 million changes their vote to FOR (13 - 8 = 5) they would have about 14 million votes.

Additional shareholders who collectively own 10 million shares would have to come out of the woodwork on Thursday and all vote FOR in order for the SOA to go ahead in this highly unlikely scenario.

So the deal is dead in the water in reality. But because it is theoretically possible that the deal could still go through, and as this is a court supervised process...the meeting still has to happen.

[tim23]

Well done on making this takeover sticky - we have modest holding but I object to being fleeced and happy to take a punt on outcome of exciting prospects.

[Lion]

Thanks, mistaTea.
I'd be very surprised if the SoA passes now, but I see why they can't cancel Thursday's meeting.
I'd love to hear some of the private conversations at NZOG head office these days! And communications with OGOG.

[digger]

Have booked my flight to be at tomorrows meeting. Bit of a bugger to have to go but them is the breaks. Supect it could be short and sweet.

Who else is going? So far looks like Wiremu,Blackcap and me.

[Sideshow Bob]

Latest announcement on the SOA. Can't see it going through.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344229


13/11/2019, 9:54 amTRANSACT
This announcement provides shareholder voting progress figures for the scheme of arrangement with O.G. Oil & Gas (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (OGOG). The scheme will only proceed if 75% of the votes cast by minority shareholders (shareholders other than OGOG) are in favour of it.
As at 5pm last night, 12 November 2019, 1,215 shareholders had voted, representing an aggregate of 55.3 per cent of the 49,568,152 votes exercisable by the company's minority shareholders.
793 shareholders have cast votes in favour of the scheme. 350 have voted against.
The following table provides a break-down of voting by minority shareholders, who represent in total 30.1% of all voting rights in the company:
Number of votes % of votes cast % of all voting rights in company
For 10,033,441 36.63 6.10
Against 13,801,880 50.38 8.39
Discretionary 3,559,138 12.99 2.16
The For and Against voting figures above reflect the postal/electronic votes and directed proxies received. Additionally, a shareholder who has appointed a proxy or cast a postal/electronic vote may nevertheless attend the meeting in person and vote as they see fit. The voting figures in the table above are therefore subject to change.

[Wiremu]

As at close of business on 12 November, with postal voting having closed, the FOR votes are 20.24% and the NO votes are 27.84%, being the percentages of all minority shareholders entitled to vote.

The actual vote tomorrow will be decided on the number of votes cast on the day. On that basis, and assuming that discretionary votes held by proxies all vote YES, and there no further votes from shareholders attending the meeting, based on today's announcement the final result would be YES votes 49.62% and NO votes 50.38%.

The YES votes need 75% for the scheme to succeed. Draw your own conclusion.

[blackcap]

A friend of mine posted what he thinks will be the MO going forward for OGOG. His thoughts follow:

"OG&G have always had the option to buy 5% of the shares on market and once they get to 75% they be able to pass any special resolution unless it is takeover by them. My thinking once they have 75% then really it is private, and minority will be even less powerless.

If any of the big projects are a goer, then NZO would need to stump up serious money and I doubt that normal retail investors left in NZO would have the pockets to do so.

Hence 75% vote threshold would allow them to underwrite any share issue and increase their holdings in both numbers and % of all shares by taking up any shortfall thus could get to 90% by default. I have seen this happen in few OZ listed entities recently."

Would this be a realistic option for OGOG and if so what will they have to pay on market to get to 75%. I am thinking 80 cents would probably do it.

[mistaTea]

A friend of mine posted what he thinks will be the MO going forward for OGOG. His thoughts follow:

"OG&G have always had the option to buy 5% of the shares on market and once they get to 75% they be able to pass any special resolution unless it is takeover by them. My thinking once they have 75% then really it is private, and minority will be even less powerless.

If any of the big projects are a goer, then NZO would need to stump up serious money and I doubt that normal retail investors left in NZO would have the pockets to do so.

Hence 75% vote threshold would allow them to underwrite any share issue and increase their holdings in both numbers and % of all shares by taking up any shortfall thus could get to 90% by default. I have seen this happen in few OZ listed entities recently."

Would this be a realistic option for OGOG and if so what will they have to pay on market to get to 75%. I am thinking 80 cents would probably do it.

I have no idea what they may or may not do moving forward. Do they come back later with a new SOA offering a higher price? Do they move to a hostile takeover? Buy 5% of shares on market to avoid takeover rules? Perhaps they will do nothing? Or something else I haven't even considered?

Could go bonkers trying to second guess them - but I doubt they had a backup plan. They will be working with their teams to figure out what went wrong and establish the best way forward for OGOG.

One thing I can say is that, for me, what they do next does not concern me. All that I care about is the underlying intrinsic value of the business, and being paid accordingly if I am going to be bought out.

So, even in your friends scenario where OGOG manage to effectively acquire 90% of the business (via selling shares to themselves in a capital raising etc) it would not worry me. If they forced the acquisition of the remaining 10% it would go through court and the remaining 10% would be in a much stronger position to negotiate a fair price. If capital has just been raised because of a discovery in Ironbark (and now money is needed to move to production) then they would pay a lot more than 80c to buy out the remaining shareholders.

I suspect that, if they are going to make another move, it will be to acquire 100% of NZOG well before Ironbark spuds.

[mistaTea]

A friend of mine posted what he thinks will be the MO going forward for OGOG. His thoughts follow:

"OG&G have always had the option to buy 5% of the shares on market and once they get to 75% they be able to pass any special resolution unless it is takeover by them. My thinking once they have 75% then really it is private, and minority will be even less powerless.



I did have one other thought though...for what it's worth.

To pass resolutions (other than takeovers) 75% of all shares that vote are required. OGOG already have full control right now because they can already pass anything they want.

100% of shares never vote. So by holding 70% of all shares outstanding, they are virtually guaranteed to pass any resolution without the support of minority holders if they want to. In practice there would just never be enough minority votes to block anything.

Only 55% of minority shareholders voted (so far) on this SoA - the decision whether or not to sell your business would be quite the motivator to vote one would think! And only half of eligible shares bothered to vote.

The problem for OGOG is that, regardless of what percentage (short of full control) that they hold - they are required to go through the rigmarole of shareholder votes every time they want to do something. It costs money and takes time.

It only gets easier for them if they take 100% of NZOG. The company disappears from the stock exchange, they no longer have to bother with shareholder votes, AGM's, movements in market capitalisation based on sentiment etc etc. They can just get on with the business of oil and gas exploration.

Huge advantages to them but only if they get 100%. And to do that they have to pay a reasonable price for full control - a lesson that have had to learn the hard way I'm afraid.

I did warn Alistair McGregor, but he did not listen. If he is ready to listen, we can have another coffee. He paid last time, so it's my shout next time anyway :t_up:

[blackcap]

I did warn Alistair McGregor, but he did not listen. If he is ready to listen, we can have another coffee. He paid last time, so it's my shout next time anyway :t_up:

Cheers for your thoughts on the topic. haha that is an invitation Alistair should not be able to refuse. Going to be an interesting meeting tomorrow regardless as to what they say and how it pans out.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344297

Dr Archer defending her credibility.

She can waffle on about how they followed the process correctly all she wants. She can speculate on what would have happened if Ironbark failed and then 'credible' information came to light pointing out that there was only ever a 5% chance of success.

Ultimately they lose sight of the most important thing:

Shareholders are willing to sell OGOG their share of the business. Perhaps it is best for everyone, given the risks and challenges operating a microcap stock like NZOG.

But they are not going to be able to buy out the remaining shareholders for the same as they paid in 2017. They are not going to be able to buy out the remaining shareholders out for less than NTA.

If that is the case, people would rather say no and hold on for the Ironbark drill - a very exciting prospect.

If they could just understand this fundamental truth, and look at the issue from the eyes of a minority holder for once - I suspect a deal could be done.

[freddagg]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344297

Very defensive.
She did not say she still supports the SoA

[rooster]

She's talking like a politician. Not like a director looking after shareholders best interests with her own skin (shareholding not directors fees) in the game.

[BigBob]

Overwhelmingly against...! Let's see what happens next or bring on Ironbark...!!



The scheme of arrangement with O.G. Oil & Gas (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (OGOG) was not approved by minority shareholders at the scheme meeting today.

To proceed, the scheme required 75% of the votes cast by minority shareholders (shareholders other than OGOG) to be in favour of it. The attached certificate from Computershare provides details of the voting outcome.

36.84% of the votes of minority shareholders were in favour of the scheme resolution and 63.09% were against.

795 minority shareholders, representing 68.89% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted in favour of the scheme resolution. 359 minority shareholders, representing 31.11% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted against.

As the scheme has not been approved by the required majority of votes cast, it cannot move forward to court approval. It is anticipated that the scheme implementation agreement with OGOG will be terminated and the scheme will not proceed.

New Zealand Oil & Gas thanks all shareholders for their interest and engagement in this process.

John Pagani
GM Corporate Services
+64 21 570 872

[mistaTea]

I suspect ACC must have turned up and voted against at the Special Meeting for the AGAINST votes to leap up from 13.8M to 17.4M.

A drubbing like that makes Dr Archer's opening remarks all the more embarrassing really.

Her ego will demand that she justify her actions to herself, but clearly the vast majority of minority shareholders engaged in the process don't buy it.

Bring on Ironbark indeed!

[Marilyn Munroe]

Whoever is chosen to provide the independent advisers report is a tell as to whether an offer is in the best interests of minority shareholders.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Vaygor1]

Excerpt from today's SoA voting results announcement:

"795 minority shareholders, representing 68.89% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted in favour of the scheme resolution. 359 minority shareholders, representing 31.11% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted against."

Why is NZO feeding the public this completely useless and irrelevant information?
I can think of no other reason that it made the author feel better about himself/herself.

Needed three quarters of minority ownership to agree.
Barely got a third.

Put a fork in it. It's done.

[mistaTea]

Excerpt from today's SoA voting results announcement:

"795 minority shareholders, representing 68.89% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted in favour of the scheme resolution. 359 minority shareholders, representing 31.11% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted against."

Why is NZO feeding the public this completely useless and irrelevant information?
I can think of no other reason that it made the author feel better about himself/herself.

Needed three quarters of minority ownership to agree.
Barely got a third.

Put a fork in it. It's done.

It’s the same reasoning that made them think jubilantly endorsing the notion that Ironbark only has a 5% probability of success was a reasonable thing to do.

The final AGAINST vote tally should have them all feeing incredibly embarrassed.

No doubt they are - but ego is such that they will never publicly admit they totally misunderstood their minority shareholder base and cocked up big time here.

For some of those involved, there may even be some spite creeping in whereby they actually hope Ironbark fails now so that they can feel vindicated.

[Xerof]

Excerpt from today's SoA voting results announcement:

"795 minority shareholders, representing 68.89% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted in favour of the scheme resolution. 359 minority shareholders, representing 31.11% of the total number of minority shareholders voting, voted against."

Why is NZO feeding the public this completely useless and irrelevant information?
I can think of no other reason that it made the author feel better about himself/herself.

Needed three quarters of minority ownership to agree.
Barely got a third.

Put a fork in it. It's done.

absolute sour grapes. Well done guys and gals, shareholder participation in such decisions is alive and well. The troughers are still a few years behind in understanding the games are over

[Ripping]

Very glad that the SoA was defeated - congratulations and thanks to those players who pushed against it.
Is there a recording or transcript of the Q & A session that took place ?

[blackcap]

Very glad that the SoA was defeated - congratulations and thanks to those players who pushed against it.
Is there a recording or transcript of the Q & A session that took place ?

No there is not. We were warned that all recording devices needed to be turned off and that a requirement upon entering the meeting was no recording. (The implication was for both audio and video)

[Leftfield]

I suspect ACC must have turned up and voted against at the Special Meeting for the AGAINST votes to leap up from 13.8M to 17.4M.
A drubbing like that makes Dr Archer's opening remarks all the more embarrassing really.
Her ego will demand that she jsutify her actions to herself, but clearly the vast majority of minority shareholders engaged in the process don't buy it.
Bring on Ironbark indeed!

Well done to all on this site who worked against the sale. It's been fascinating watching from the sidelines for this non holder. Congratulations.

[mistaTea]

"Imagine if we drilled Ironbark, and it came in unsuccessfully. Then imagine that as a shareholder you discovered a report exists, from which a 5 per cent chance of success at Ironbark can be derived. And then imagine that you found out the independent directors knew about it, and had not alerted you to it."

Though she may have a PHD, Rosalind is not as smart as she thinks she is.

The SRK report was presented when NZOG farmed in to Ironbark. It's purpose was for Cue shareholders to help them assess whether or not the terms of the NZOG farm in were reasonable.

So, if the SRK report inferred a 5% commercial success probability, why did our Independent Directors not come to us then? Since they have made a big fuss out of the fact Ironbark is a pure gamble, surely if they truly had our interests at heart they would have had a duty to let us know back then?

The only commentary at the time was Andrew Jeffries' and the previous Chairman's excited and very bullish statements about what a wonderful, world-class opportunity it is. How BP taking over as Operator and purchasing such a large equity stake was a strong vote of confidence in the drill...

Why did Rosalind and Rod only point the 5% out to us once their Masters (I mean majority shareholder) came forward with a takeover bid? Oh that's right - because it's complete bullsh1t.

The more Rosalind talks, the more she gets herself into trouble.

I am sure she is brilliant in academia, but the woman has no common sense and is a terrible representative for minority interests.

[percy]

Well done to all on this site who worked against the sale. It's been fascinating watching from the sidelines for this non holder. Congratulations.

I second that.
Just wish the high standard of posting was on other threads as well.

[Beagle]

Down the ski slope the share price goes. Broken down through the 100 day moving average today. Maybe 50 cents is on the cards again even before the next drill ?... seeing as the majority (by number), of minority shareholders wanted out.

Ironic how these things often work...was less than 50 cents before the proposed scheme of arrangement was tabled and despite everyone thinking its definitely worth more I suspect the chances of it reverting back to where it started from are very good.

That won't worry the hard core diggers, punters and enthusiasts though, they'll be keen to stump up even more money for a larger punt on the drill.
Ironbark...such a good solid name.

[percy]

.................................................. ......................

[Beagle]

..................….

[mistaTea]

Down the ski slope the share price goes. Broken down through the 100 day moving average today. Maybe 50 cents is on the cards again even before the next drill ?... seeing as the majority (by number), of minority shareholders wanted out.

Ironic how these things often work...was less than 50 cents before the proposed scheme of arrangement was tabled and despite everyone thinking its definitely worth more I suspect the chances of it reverting back to where it started from are very good.

I too lament that we do not have more intellectually stimulating posts like this one to really improve the overall quality of this thread.

[digger]

Soon after the first SOA was announced I asked John by sharetrader way back in early july if he could fill me in on the access minor shareholders had to all the emails that NZO control to comminate with Shareholders.. John never replied but Brian Roulston did. We then made up some shareholder statements for consideration that was suppost to go to all shareholders once the scheme booklet was released.. NZO was first issued these intended statements on 19th july/19,pointing out that they were not final as at that stage we did not know what was in the scheme booklet.While John Pagani never formally acknowledged being in receit of the july statements he did email me about some of the contents,saying that I was out of line doing any opposition when I no idea what would be in the booklet. John pointed out that as it was a court supervised process I would have the required days to get my Statements in so that the forwarding cost would be met by NZO as set out in law.

Well nothing like that happened. I sent in the final Shareholders Statements on the 6th sept not wanting to wait any longer. On the the 8th Sept the booklet was released. Suddenly NZO who from july to sept would not talk to me suddenly started emailing me about these Shareholder statements saying that as the required working days were insufficient before the meeting of 62 cents SOA offer all the cost to put an alternative view to shareholders would now have to be born by me. So minor shareholders never got an alternative view points to consider.


I spoke about this today . The reply i received made to realise how much the company has change since the days of Tony Randford.Tony liked and encouraged alternative views. Not so anymore. The reply I got at the meeting was that they did consider my statements but were not worth passing on.

Now hang on. Since when did NZO become the filter that all idea not wanted have to first get the approval of the board.
A number of other shareholders did say they so my point that the company did shut down alternative viewpoints but one centainly did not. He said why did you not say what these points were. After some small time I realised he was part of the company and hoped to confuse the situation.
Spoke to many board members and my clear impression is that the board needs a good cleanout.I first joined this company in 1984 and have never before felt this way. They are too dictatorrial and have no clear idea about the value of concensus.


Rosalind Archer said that the opposition to the SOA was from a few who just wanted the max for their shares. Later on a NZSA member spoke and said that that is what ever intelligent investers wants,and should want.
Rosalind has little ides about risk and reward so went on about how a dry well could effect the shareprice. Dosen't seem to understand that we all know that and that is why we invest in drilling.

But I went away very annoyed about the arrognant bastereds that feel they have the right to decide what the shareholders should be allowed to hear.{ we considered your statments and found them wanting]
You ignorant shareholdes don't have the intelligence to arrive at that conclusion yourselves so the board will protect you from such ideas.

[dodgy]

Soon after the first SOA was announced I asked John by sharetrader way back in early july if he could fill me in on the access minor shareholders had to all the emails that NZO control to comminate with Shareholders.. John never replied but Brian Roulston did. We then made up some shareholder statements for consideration that was suppost to go to all shareholders once the scheme booklet was released.. NZO was first issued these intended statements on 19th july/19,pointing out that they were not final as at that stage we did not know what was in the scheme booklet.While John Pagani never formally acknowledged being in receit of the july statements he did email me about some of the contents,saying that I was out of line doing any opposition when I no idea what would be in the booklet. John pointed out that as it was a court supervised process I would have the required days to get my Statements in so that the forwarding cost would be met by NZO as set out in law.

Well nothing like that happened. I sent in the final Shareholders Statements on the 6th sept not wanting to wait any longer. On the the 8th Sept the booklet was released. Suddenly NZO who from july to sept would not talk to me suddenly started emailing me about these Shareholder statements saying that as the required working days were insufficient before the meeting of 62 cents SOA offer all the cost to put an alternative view to shareholders would now have to be born by me. So minor shareholders never got an alternative view points to consider.


I spoke about this today . The reply i received made to realise how much the company has change since the days of Tony Randford.Tony liked and encouraged alternative views. Not so anymore. The reply I got at the meeting was that they did consider my statements but were not worth passing on.

Now hang on. Since when did NZO become the filter that all idea not wanted have to first get the approval of the board.
A number of other shareholders did say they so my point that the company did shut down alternative viewpoints but one centainly did not. He said why did you not say what these points were. After some small time I realised he was part of the company and hoped to confuse the situation.
Spoke to many board members and my clear impression is that the board needs a good cleanout.I first joined this company in 1984 and have never before felt this way. They are too dictatorrial and have no clear idea about the value of concensus.


Rosalind Archer said that the opposition to the SOA was from a few who just wanted the max for their shares. Later on a NZSA member spoke and said that that is what ever intelligent investers wants,and should want.
Rosalind has little ides about risk and reward so went on about how a dry well could effect the shareprice. Dosen't seem to understand that we all know that and that is why we invest in drilling.

But I went away very annoyed about the arrognant bastereds that feel they have the right to decide what the shareholders should be allowed to hear.{ we considered your statments and found them wanting]
You ignorant shareholdes don't have the intelligence to arrive at that conclusion yourselves so the board will protect you from such ideas.

Good morning Digger.
Unfortunately you have been going on since 1984 about how great this company is....Why do you bother with it? From where I am standing, in my opinion ,this company from Radfords "thrill and drill days" up to now have engaged only in my wealth destruction - in oil and coal. But you hang in there....Good luck with that.
Regards,
-dodgy (on and off holder since 1988)

[RTM]

Morning Digger,
Through this whole process I have been concerned about how one sided it is. Especially from the communication perspective. We are very lucky to have ShareTrader. But what we are missing is access to shareholders (email) addresses, that the company can access to get across their perspective. I see you say “as set out in law.” I have no idea what legal rights shareholders have with respect to communications with other shareholders ? Can you elaborate. Have NZO broken the law ? Is this something that NZSA could help us with ?

Thanks to all the larger shareholders who managed to stop this going ahead. I’ve learnt a lot about my investment in NZO !

[Beagle]

My experience with this company that goes right back to Tony Radford's days is they have never really engaged with shareholders in a collaborative manner asking what they want ?
Have they ever presented at a NZSA meeting and being open to questions and feedback before ?
When was their last investor day where they brought shareholders in on their strategy.
Huge amounts of the cash that Kupe spat out was wasted, in my opinion.
I got out years ago but still have a morbid fascination with how "well" they're doing.

[blackcap]

My experience with this company that goes right back to Tony Radford's days is they have never really engaged with shareholders in a collaborative manner asking what they want ?
Have they ever presented at a NZSA meeting and being open to questions and feedback before ?
.

Yes they have. Andrew Jeffries presented in depth at the Wellington Branch of the NZSA meeting in Khandallah just a few months ago. It was a very good presentation of over an hour and a half. I purchased more shares at about 50 cents on the strengh of that presentation.

[mistaTea]

The Board and Management have made it crystal clear that it is impossible for NZOG to purchase equity in meaningful production assets (as part of the doom and gloom story). We are too small and companies like Beach prefer to partner with larger companies with deep pockets - like OGOG.

Fair enough.

But if that is really true then NZOG’s destiny is 100% tied to the success or failure of Ironbark and Clipper.

In which case, what is the benefit in sitting on all that cash?

If you deduct the $24M held in escrow from the $78M cash balance held by NZOG directly you are left with $54M just sitting there.

Why not leave $30M in the kitty for Clipper and potential cost overruns in Ironbark and return $24M to shareholders?

They could do a capital return like last time by cancelling 1 in 2 shares to avoid tax etc.

I just can’t see the sense in them holding all that cash now if they are saying they can’t do anything with it.

Any thoughts Sharetraders?

[Wiremu]

The Board and Management have made it crystal clear that it is impossible for NZOG to purchase equity in meaningful production assets (as part of the doom and gloom story). We are too small and companies like Beach prefer to partner with larger companies with deep pockets - like OGOG.

Fair enough.

But if that is really true then NZOG’s destiny is 100% tied to the success or failure of Ironbark and Clipper.

In which case, what is the benefit in sitting on all that cash?

If you deduct the $24M held in escrow from the $78M cash balance held by NZOG directly you are left with $54M just sitting there.

Why not leave $30M in the kitty for Clipper and potential cost overruns in Ironbark and return $24M to shareholders?

They could do a capital return like last time by cancelling 1 in 2 shares to avoid tax etc.

I just can’t see the sense in them holding all that cash now if they are saying they can’t do anything with it.

Any thoughts Sharetraders?

The answer is simple, rather than attack the minority shareholders with a duplicitous offer based on a value derived from sharemarket portfolio interests rather than a value based on 100% control, just do things that make the company bigger.

[mistaTea]

The answer is simple... just do things that make the company bigger.

The ideal scenario for shareholders is definitely for Management to deploy the capital into income generating assets. If they genuinely can't invest the dosh we have (and borrow the shortfall) to invest in a large production asset, then they could look at either purchasing the rest of Cue or merging Cue and NZO.

Second option would be better as you would immediately make large savings by sacking the NZO board, the CEO, the lawyer etc etc and using what Cue already have in place. A fellow shareholder mentioned this possibility to me (the guy is pretty switched on)...have Cue do a reverse takeover/merger of NZO. Existing Cue and NZO shareholders get shares in the new entity...
Then we just end up with a larger Cue that is only listed on the ASX. No problem working with the Aussie government on Energy Supply and the larger Cue would have no issues borrowing money for future projects.

There are plenty of things they could do with the money - and of course we can't trust a thing they say anymore. So when they tell us it has not been possible to do anything with the money we need to take it with a very large bucket of salt.

However, if I am wrong and investing the tens of millions of dollars is genuinely not possible - then give us our money back so we can find other investments to increase our return.

[dodgy]

The ideal scenario for shareholders is definitely for Management to deploy the capital into income generating assets. If they genuinely can't invest the dosh we have (and borrow the shortfall) to invest in a large production asset, then they could look at either purchasing the rest of Cue or merging Cue and NZO.

Second option would be better as you would immediately make large savings by sacking the NZO board, the CEO, the lawyer etc etc and using what Cue already have in place. A fellow shareholder mentioned this possibility to me (the guy is pretty switched on)...have Cue do a reverse takeover of NZO. Then we just end up with a larger Cue that is only listed on the ASX. No problem working with the Aussie government on Energy Supply and the larger Cue would have no issues borrowing money for future projects.

There are plenty of things they could do with the money - and of course we can't trust a thing they say anymore. So when they tell us it has not been possible to do anything with the money we need to take it with a very large bucket of salt.

However, if I am wrong and investing the tens of millions of dollars is genuinely not possible - then give us our money back so we can find other investments to increase our return.


Hi All,
Beware you may be Barquing up the wrong investment tree. Time will tell I guess.
-d

[digger]

Morning Digger,
Through this whole process I have been concerned about how one sided it is. Especially from the communication perspective. We are very lucky to have ShareTrader. But what we are missing is access to shareholders (email) addresses, that the company can access to get across their perspective. I see you say “as set out in law.” I have no idea what legal rights shareholders have with respect to communications with other shareholders ? Can you elaborate. Have NZO broken the law ? Is this something that NZSA could help us with ?

Thanks to all the larger shareholders who managed to stop this going ahead. I’ve learnt a lot about my investment in NZO !


Companies control the email address of all shareholders. Under the privacy Act they can not pass these emails on to anyone. So in a case like this we have the companies act 1993. This act allows any sharholder to contact all shareholders if a matter such as the past two SOA come before us. Under the Act 1993 you must give notice to the company so many working days in advance,and if you do your points of view are past on to the other shareholders at the companies expense. I or I should say we thought it was all done correctly but they twised it to say we were out by two days and had to pay for it ourselves. And what made me so mad was that I was following John Pagani advise to wait for the scheme booklet. This was nothing short of a trick which I fell for. In the event this SOA went throught it would have been off to court as what the NZO did was just not legal I would be argueing. But that is all behind us now except my future trust in Board members,which is a little on the little side.

Soon we will all be getting the AGM meeting details. Note Brian Roulston is standing for director. He has bugger all chance as OGOG controls the show with 70% ownership., but consider voting for him as a sort of wakeup call to the company.

[RTM]

Companies control the email address of all shareholders. Under the privacy Act they can not pass these emails on to anyone. So in a case like this we have the companies act 1993. This act allows any sharholder to contact all shareholders if a matter such as the past two SOA come before us. Under the Act 1993 you must give notice to the company so many working days in advance,and if you do your points of view are past on to the other shareholders at the companies expense. I or I should say we thought it was all done correctly but they twised it to say we were out by two days and had to pay for it ourselves. And what made me so mad was that I was following John Pagani advise to wait for the scheme booklet. This was nothing short of a trick which I fell for. In the event this SOA went throught it would have been off to court as what the NZO did was just not legal I would be argueing. But that is all behind us now except my future trust in Board members,which is a little on the little side.

Soon we will all be getting the AGM meeting details. Note Brian Roulston is standing for director. He has bugger all chance as OGOG controls the show with 70% ownership., but consider voting for him as a sort of wakeup call to the company.


Thanks for that, I understand more clearly now. Once again, appreciate all your efforts.
And thanks for reminder re Brian.

[Fabs37]

What is Actually stopping this lot to sell off all or some interests in the present held Projects to any sister CO,s at any price??
Also interesting to find out if pos. what are the likly redundancy Packages to any of the too many non performing gent,s on the Through of NZOG???

[mistaTea]

What is Actually stopping this lot to sell off all or some interests in the present held Projects to any sister CO,s at any price??
Also interesting to find out if pos. what are the likly redundancy Packages to any of the too many non performing gent,s on the Through of NZOG???

I suspect Court proceedings by minority interests would deter OGOG from doing anything 'dodgy' like what you suggest.

OGOG have a tremendous amount of power as majority owner to set the strategic agenda, make capital allocation decisions etc. But that doesn't mean they can just do whatever they want to bolster their interests at the expense of minority holders.

I also don't think that we can deduce from recent events that just because OGOG tried their luck at getting the rest of NZOG for a cheap price that they are these evil megalomaniacs plotting their next nefarious actions to acquire the rest of the business.

I remain a harsh critic of the SOA that was put before shareholders, but that's all over now.

In terms of redundancies - God only knows. Definitely far too much money is being paid between CUE and NZOG Board and Management fees though compared to the income these companies are actually producing.

Shareholders would be better served with one CUE-NZOG company so that the duplicated roles could be removed. The problem with trying to do a merger of sorts at this point is that Cue shares are selling at somewhat of a premium on the ASX while NZOG shares are selling at a discount to asset value on the NZX. So quite how you would come up with a 'fair value' for each company is debatable.

[Fabs37]

[Its only a DODGY SUGGESTION IF ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE, IS IT RELY??

Only asked IS IT POSSIBLE ?? yes am aware of ending up before a court not much of a deterrent to them.
Outcome, Your guess as good as anybody's.
For Example how it works for some yes; As per below

As for TRUSTING this lot?
1/ Targeting 70% hold with consequent long term planning in mind. [ yes presumptuous of me att. but turning out that way ]
2/Reminding us constantly harping on how they are working hard Creating Value for S/H,s [ well YOU be the judge of that ]
3/ SOA
4/ No Apologies
Or giving them the BOD.

Tony Radfords Mineral Res. Co,s or was it Otter Gold by then LOSS at the Privy Court London after the NZ High Court ruled in his favor twice against the big Boys.
At least Tony while often reviled by the investment fraternity made at least for THIS investor more money than other CO,s made for me put together over many years.
BTW; HAVE NOTHING AGAINST BIG BOYS OR CO,S. as long as they ARE TRANSPARENT.
Hope that helps

[RTM]

Well....John's told us what he thinks !

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/344612/312248.pdf

[blackcap]

Well....John's told us what he thinks !

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/344612/312248.pdf

Yeah but the amounts are immaterial and he is leaving the company anyway. So that does not mean much to me.

However I am concerned about things such as corporate costs and Andrew Jeffries on $800k and what does he do for that money. Surely he would not be helping out OGOG on their other projects?

[mistaTea]

Yeah but the amounts are immaterial and he is leaving the company anyway. So that does not mean much to me.

However I am concerned about things such as corporate costs and Andrew Jeffries on $800k and what does he do for that money. Surely he would not be helping out OGOG on their other projects?

Andrew should be paid maybe a quarter of what he currently gets. And his new duties should include John Pagani’s existing ones - answering the odd email here and there. That way Pagani’s role doesn’t have to be replaced with a new body.

[Xerof]

Andrew could at least proof read the announcement before it goes out. General Counsel can’t spell ‘unknown’ correctly

[RTM]

Yeah but the amounts are immaterial and he is leaving the company anyway. So that does not mean much to me.

However I am concerned about things such as corporate costs and Andrew Jeffries on $800k and what does he do for that money. Surely he would not be helping out OGOG on their other projects?

Yes. The amounts are not material. However, if he thought there was a chance that the shares would be worth more in the future.....maybe he would have held. Perhaps he’s building a deck ? A relatively small one.

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/344691/312366.pdf

All over red rover.

[Bart]

Oh dear, we missed an excellent chance to get good value for our now virtually worthless shares. All we can do now is dream of a 5% wonder in the distant future. Time to look at other opportunities, power companies perhaps due to the future shortage of gas?

[mistaTea]

Oh dear, we missed an excellent chance to get good value for our now virtually worthless shares. All we can do now is dream of a 5% wonder in the distant future. Time to look at other opportunities, power companies perhaps due to the future shortage of gas?

Indeed, when the Ironbark gamble fails miserably next year and we have nowhere to turn to, I expect OGOG to send me a bottle of Dom Perignon.

A thank you for my role in stopping their bid, thereby ensuring they were not even more exposed to this 95% sure-to-be-doomed gamble.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Indeed, when the Ironbark gamble fails miserably next year and we have nowhere to turn to, I expect OGOG to send me a bottle of Dom Perignon.

A thank you for my role in stopping their bid, thereby ensuring they were not even more exposed to this 95% sure-to-be-doomed gamble.

Without putting words in your mouth, are you essentially saying... "I pity the fool" :p

[mistaTea]

Without putting words in your mouth, are you essentially saying... "I pity the fool" :p

So far as I think their low-ball offer attempt to acquire 100% control of NZO was clumsy - yes, I consider OGOG to be foolish indeed.

At the same time, I should clarify that in no way am I suggesting or implying that just because Northington tried to put a ridiculous figure of 5% as the probability of success... that I expect Ironbark to be a 'sure thing'.

Far from a 'sure thing' there are very real risks involved with deep sea exploration. Our chance of succeeding in this permit is a hell of a lot higher than 5%, but it is entirely possible that we could drill it and have it come up dry.

Investors understand this and factor it in to the price they pay to purchase equity in the company. And with a SP of around 60c or so at the moment, the company is still statistically cheap in my view.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

So far as I think their low-ball offer attempt to acquire 100% control of NZO was clumsy - yes, I consider OGOG to be foolish indeed.

At the same time, I should clarify that in no way am I suggesting or implying that just because Northington tried to put a ridiculous figure of 5% as the probability of success... that I expect Ironbark to be a 'sure thing'.

Far from a 'sure thing' there are very real risks involved with deep sea exploration. Our chance of succeeding in this permit is a hell of a lot higher than 5%, but it is entirely possible that we could drill it and have it come up dry.

Investors understand this and factor it in to the price they pay to purchase equity in the company. And with a SP of around 60c or so at the moment, the company is still statistically cheap in my view.

All good ,but with a name like MisterT I was expecting something a bit more catchy and pithy :eek2:

[mistaTea]

All good ,but with a name like MisterT I was expecting something a bit more catchy and pithy :eek2:

*sigh* Fair enough. Let’s just stick with... I PITY THE FOOL!! then.

[mistaTea]

So Beach released this today: https://yourir.info/resources/0c5a441cf54ff229/announcements/bpt.asx/2A1188971/BPT_2019_AGM_addresses_and_presentation.pdf

Of particular interest to us is the commentary on Slide 18:

"The final area I wanted to highlight was our upcoming frontier exploration opportunities.
Our exploration team carefully assesses new exploration opportunities for investment, and Beach’s hurdle for frontier areas is very high. We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays. We currently have an interest in 2 material frontier investment opportunities which fit this criteria.

Our investment in these wells in the Carnarvon Basin and offshore New Zealand is modest; we are not betting the company on any of these. However the success case in any one of these wells has the potential to add material resources to the company and provide another avenue for medium to long term growth. In short – they have “company changer” potential."

5% Probability of commercial success indeed!

[digger]

Well that post beats me Mista tea.. I was looked right in the eye by our nZO directors and assured that 5% it was. So your post from Beach must be in error.
Looking forward to next years drill. The 5% is just 11 months away. I certainly hope OGOG keeps to their word and dose not come back with another slightly improved SOA.

[rooster]

So Beach released this today: https://yourir.info/resources/0c5a441cf54ff229/announcements/bpt.asx/2A1188971/BPT_2019_AGM_addresses_and_presentation.pdf

Of particular interest to us is the commentary on Slide 18:

"The final area I wanted to highlight was our upcoming frontier exploration opportunities.
Our exploration team carefully assesses new exploration opportunities for investment, and Beach’s hurdle for frontier areas is very high. We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays. We currently have an interest in 2 material frontier investment opportunities which fit this criteria.

Our investment in these wells in the Carnarvon Basin and offshore New Zealand is modest; we are not betting the company on any of these. However the success case in any one of these wells has the potential to add material resources to the company and provide another avenue for medium to long term growth. In short – they have “company changer” potential."

5% Probability of commercial success indeed!







If only sharetrader allowed thumbs up on posts like on hotcopper :)

[Ripping]

If only sharetrader allowed thumbs up on posts like on hotcopper :)

::tup:: ....

[blackcap]

Thanks for that Mista Tea, that is very telling indeed. Incredible really. I think these prices of NZO at 62 cents are very cheap. Time to load up.

[mistaTea]

Thanks for that Mista Tea, that is very telling indeed. Incredible really. I think these prices of NZO at 62 cents are very cheap. Time to load up.

No doubt if you quizzed the Great Minds at NZOG, they would try to bog you down in semantics. They would say the 5% estimate referred to commercial success, whereas Beach have just said 'success' - which could mean just discovering hydrocarbons but then not being able to extract them.

And of course it will be more bs from our Trustworthy Leaders - I do not believe for a second that Beach Energy are misleading their investors by issuing a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 probability of success figure, when they know damn well the $35M they are about to spend is actually 95% sure to be money down the drain.

I like how they categorically state they wouldn't even touch a 1 in 8 (12.5%) or a 1 in 10 (10%) odds of success prospect, regardless of how large the potential upside might be. Those odds are a lot higher than what we were told!

How the Directors could look digger in the eye and tell him the odds of success truly are 1 in 20 really does make me feel sick.

Proving they mislead the market is near impossible under the current framework, unfortunately - but the whole thing really is shameful. I know the TO Panel are still doing a retrospective on this, I have chatted to them and others are yet to meet with them. With a little luck they will be able to make some improvements for future SoA's so that minority holders are not at such a significant information disadvantage to the majority owner.

Fortunately in this case we were thoughtful and not so easily duped. But you can see how in other cases minority interests can easily be screwed over.

[mistaTea]

SP seems to be holding steady around 61 - 62c.

Perhaps the recent events have at the very least caused existing shareholders to rethink how much they give their shares away for.

[Wiremu]

Beach Energy, now as a big partner of OGOG, have made a bold statement with their "wouldn't even touch a 1 in 8 (12.5%) or a 1 in 10 (10%) odds of success prospect".

With the NZO Annual Meeting two weeks away, remember these final remarks from Rosalind Archer at the Special Meeting:

"Against this, you are being asked to believe the opinions of people who are trying to maximise the value they receive for their shares.
Look at some of their complaints:
They have complained that we didn’t have a commercial adviser. We did.
They complained that Kupe’s value did not reflect the project currently underway. It does.
Imagine if we drilled Ironbark, and it came in unsuccessfully. Then imagine that as a shareholder you discovered a report exists, from which a 5 per cent chance of success at Ironbark can be derived. And then imagine that you found out the independent directors knew about it, and had not alerted you to it.
I believe it is correct and prudent to put this choice in front of you. That’s why there is a vote."

So its wrong to maximise the value we receive for our shares! Naughty, naughty minority shareholders.

That was answered with 63% of the votes of minority shareholders being lodged against the scheme she was actively promoting. Such a rejection is almost unprecedented.

Let that not be the end of the matter - we must keep up the pressure on the board to appoint truly independent directors to look after minority shareholder interests. That may only be wishful thinking, but we need to make the effort in our own best interests.

The Annual Meeting is our next chance to do so, and you know what to do with your votes for the election of directors at that meeting.

[blackcap]

Gidday team and many thanks to Wiremu for his recent post. I know that both new nominees for the NZOG Board, Samantha and Brian are working hard behind the scenes. Clearly, they don't necessarily post everything in public in this forum - but a lot going on to try and get the best for shareholders.

[CD_CHCH]

Just voted online for Brian, and voted against Rod.

Logic being, the current director's did absolutely nothing to look after and protect the interests of the small shareholders in the recent scheme of arrangement, whereas Brian was working hard behind the scenes to assist the small shareholders in NZO.

Even if as a group, the small shareholders are unsuccessful in having Brian elected and/or preventing the re-election of Rod, it should serve to send the current board a powerful message if all the small shareholders were to vote against Rod's re-election.

Hopefully given the recent public statements from Beach Energy and Cue regarding the chances of success with Ironbark, the Takeover Panels will take a long hard look at the statements made by the NZO directors, and call them to account.

[digger]

Just voted online for Brian, and voted against Rod.

Logic being, the current director's did absolutely nothing to look after and protect the interests of the small shareholders in the recent scheme of arrangement, whereas Brian was working hard behind the scenes to assist the small shareholders in NZO.

Even if as a group, the small shareholders are unsuccessful in having Brian elected and/or preventing the re-election of Rod, it should serve to send the current board a powerful message if all the small shareholders were to vote against Rod's re-election.

Hopefully given the recent public statements from Beach Energy and Cue regarding the chances of success with Ironbark, the Takeover Panels will take a long hard look at the statements made by the NZO directors, and call them to account.

so where did you get the info for voting. I have been waiting for an email message but nothing yet. Did you go to computershare? Seems I missed the action up to now but sure want to you as you have done. Your reason is sound and I sure hope small voters take it up.

[CD_CHCH]

Hi Digger,

Following recent posts from Wiremu and Blackcap I went online to Computershare and voted.

To the best of my recollection I haven't received anything from NZO in regards to voting.

From what I understand shareholders can vote online up until 10th December ready for the AGM.

I had a quick skim through the AGM notice while online at Computershare and noted with interest that NZO was doing their utmost to protect the old boys network by recommending shareholders vote for their man Rod, and vote against Brian and Samantha.

Given the total contempt they have shown towards the small shareholders recently I figure that voting against NZO's recommendation to re-elect Rod is our best and safest course of action.

[blackcap]

Just voted online for Brian, and voted against Rod.

Logic being, the current director's did absolutely nothing to look after and protect the interests of the small shareholders in the recent scheme of arrangement, whereas Brian was working hard behind the scenes to assist the small shareholders in NZO.

Even if as a group, the small shareholders are unsuccessful in having Brian elected and/or preventing the re-election of Rod, it should serve to send the current board a powerful message if all the small shareholders were to vote against Rod's re-election.

Hopefully given the recent public statements from Beach Energy and Cue regarding the chances of success with Ironbark, the Takeover Panels will take a long hard look at the statements made by the NZO directors, and call them to account.

Hi CD_ChCH,

I see that you voted online for Brian and against Rod. There is another director standing (Samantha Sharif) who is aligned with our interests and it would be worthy to give both Brian and Samantha our votes (and against for Rod) to show the Board that we have no confidence in BOTH current independent directors (although only 1 is standing for re-election) and want 2 alternatives. Samantha and Brian have no show at all of getting elected to the board as OGOG have the veto vote. However if both Samantha and Rod could get the majority of minority votes then that will be sending a statement.
I would consider you also vote for Samantha if you have not done so already. I am voting for both Samantha and Brian and against Rod.

[airedale]

This is outrageous, just eight days from when voting closes and there has been no communication by post or email from the company about the AGM.
I will be voting through computershare, thanks for the "heads up" guys.

[CD_CHCH]

Hi Blackcap,

Good point and forgot to mention in my original post that I had also voted for Samantha.

I note that NZO have recommended shareholders do not vote for Brian or Samantha - could it be they are terrified of having a truly independent director on the board and the fresh scrutiny that would bring?

So to recap my voting was as follows:

Rod - voted AGAINST
Brian - voted FOR
Samantha - voted FOR

[blackcap]

Hi Blackcap,

Good point and forgot to mention in my original post that I had also voted for Samantha.

I note that NZO have recommended shareholders do not vote for Brain or Samantha - could it be they are terrified of having a truly independent director on the board and the fresh scrutiny that would bring?

So to recap my voting was as follows:

Rod - voted AGAINST
Brian - voted FOR
Samantha - voted for FOR

Haha well I am not sure they are terrified as you put it :) but I think they want their own "independent" directors who are maybe more "pliable" (just my opinion of course). Standard practice from a board. Normally a board chooses who they want to represent the company and then put it to shareholders for a vote. Brian and Samantha are not who the board wants. But under NZX listing rules they have to open nominations from other shareholders. Normally no one gets nominated but in this case some shareholders feel are exceptional circumstances are warranted and have nominated Samantha and Brian. Who incidentally also both spoke at the SOA meeting in Wellington recently.

[Sideshow Bob]

This is outrageous, just eight days from when voting closes and there has been no communication by post or email from the company about the AGM.
I will be voting through computershare, thanks for the "heads up" guys.

I've had a good look, and not received anything.

[blackcap]

I've had a good look, and not received anything.

It just goes to show how inept their governance really is.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

I've had a good look, and not received anything.

If this is true; NZO are breaching the NZX Corporate Governance Code and could (should) face action.

[blackcap]

I do know a notice of meeting was sent to the NZX:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344306

however I have checked my email and snail mail and nothing has arrived from the company. That is a bit of a worry.

[airedale]

Resolutions 2,3, 4, are for the election of independent board members. Does anyone have any thoughts about resolution 1 and 5. Number 1 seems to be house keeping re the NZX listing, and number 5 is about opening the company's books and accounts to public scrutiny.

[Sideshow Bob]

If this is true; NZO are breaching the NZX Corporate Governance Code and could (should) face action.

Received emails from NZO via Computershare on 10/7, 2/9, 10/9, 9/10 and 29/10. Nothing since then.

Logged into Computershare and all correspondence is electronic. Can't find anything re a director vote.

:confused:

[Fabs37]

Just voted online for Brian, and voted against Rod.



Hopefully given the recent public statements from Beach Energy and Cue regarding the chances of success with Ironbark, the Takeover Panels will take a long hard look at the statements made by the NZO directors, and call them to account.

Yes -TAKEOVER PANEL?
About as Inept as Independent Directors and equally devoid of Objective Judgement.
Not worth a tin of fish.
Exonerated the Co. more than a month ago of Shifty practices.

[RTM]

Received emails from NZO via Computershare on 10/7, 2/9, 10/9, 9/10 and 29/10. Nothing since then.

Logged into Computershare and all correspondence is electronic. Can't find anything re a director vote.

:confused:

Agree. I found it not intuitive to find out where to vote. I succeeded, but can’t guide you. I went into the help and searched for “voting”. And when I came out of that, there it was, so I voted Wasn’t easy to find at all.

[blackcap]

Apologies to NZO. Just found the notice of meeting sent to me via email from New Zealand Oil and Gas on the 14th November.

[blackcap]

I know that Brian and Samantha have both been working hard behind the scenes meeting with stakeholders and other minority investors.
I am going to vote for both Brian and Samantha (and against Ritchie) – and suggest everyone does the same. We need to replace both current so-called Independent Directors and so it will be good to send a strong signal of who our choices are. I think these two will work well together for our interests.

[rooster]

Agree. I found it not intuitive to find out where to vote. I succeeded, but can’t guide you. I went into the help and searched for “voting”. And when I came out of that, there it was, so I voted Wasn’t easy to find at all.

If you log on to computer share there will be a general alert notification. This will be the NZO AGM vote. I could not find any link or reference to it when I clicked on the NZO holding in my computer share registry.

Have voted against Rod and in favour of the other two as well.

[Vaygor1]

Agree. I found it not intuitive to find out where to vote. I succeeded, but can’t guide you. I went into the help and searched for “voting”. And when I came out of that, there it was, so I voted Wasn’t easy to find at all.

I agree entirely. It was not intuitive at all. Very poor of ComputerShare really. I went in 3 times to try and find it, and eventually did only because (thanks to this thread) I knew it had to be there somewhere. Certainly was not linked to from within the section detailing my NZO holding.

Regarding Director resolutions, my votes:

Rod - AGAINST
Brian - FOR
Samantha - FOR

[Grimy]

I also got my email from NZO on the 14th of November about the meeting, with all the links for information and voting.

[digger]

OK got my vote in for Brian. It's a protest vote as only an act of parliament will get it past OGOG.
Still as many as possible should vote as they see fit.

[mistaTea]

OK got my vote in for Brian. It's a protest vote as only an act of parliament will get it past OGOG.
Still as many as possible should vote as they see fit.

Have voted along the same lines as you digger. I want as many votes for Brian as possible to formalise our feelings regarding the way we have been treated.

Beyond that, and once OGOG re-elect Rod to the Board...the focus needs to shift to a constructive dialogue between minority shareholders and OGOG.

Ultimately, we want a positive outcome for all long-term. So, for what it's worth, I don't see any value continuing to read management the Riot Act at the AGM as some activist shareholders intend to do.

[digger]

Have voted along the same lines as you digger. I want as many votes for Brian as possible to formalise our feelings regarding the way we have been treated.

Beyond that, and once OGOG re-elect Rod to the Board...the focus needs to shift to a constructive dialogue between minority shareholders and OGOG.

Ultimately, we want a positive outcome for all long-term. So, for what it's worth, I don't see any value continuing to read management the Riot Act at the AGM as some activist shareholders intend to do.

I agree. By now I think they have the message.When making a point you have to be aware of when to stop. Look at Hong Kong as an example. The protesters claim they are protecting freedom of speach--- then when someone speaks against them they pour pertrol on him and set it alight. china could not have done a better job of shutting down free speach.
So yes we have made our point very well and now should leave it for a time and see what eventuates. I am not planning to go to the AGM.

[blackcap]

I see the NZ Shareholders Association have come out with the PVI's.

Resolution 1: In Favour
Resolution 2: Against
Resolution 3: In Favour
Resolution 4: In Favour
Resolution 5: In Favour
Resolution 6: In Favour

So they seem to be saying vote No for current independent director and are supporting the 2 independent directors being nominated by minority shareholders.
They also support resolution 5 a private resolution brought forward by Peter Cormack a shareholder.

[digger]

You beat me to it Blackcap. I was about to post the same report.

[Leftfield]

Good to see NZSA taking a stand regarding this company. Here's a link to their proxy intentions. (https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/pdf/proxies/NZO_PVI_2019_ASM.pdf)

Looks like an interesting meeting coming up!! GLH.

[blackcap]

Gaynor commenting in the Herald:

There are four contentious resolutions on the agenda, particularly the re-election of independent director Rod Ritchie. Ritchie strongly recommended the recent low-priced takeover offer from NZOG's controlling shareholder, which was comprehensively rejected by minority shareholders.

Ritchie's re-election, which is Resolution 2, is strongly supported by the NZOG board, but the board has opposed Resolutions 3 and 4, which are the election of shareholder-nominated candidates Brian Roulston and Samantha Sharif.

Roulston and Sharif have more impressive CVs than Ritchie, including energy experience, yet the NZOG board opposes Roulston and Sharif because Ritchie's election "would fill the seven person quota of board appointments".

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12291703

[mistaTea]

Gaynor commenting in the Herald:

There are four contentious resolutions on the agenda, particularly the re-election of independent director Rod Ritchie. Ritchie strongly recommended the recent low-priced takeover offer from NZOG's controlling shareholder, which was comprehensively rejected by minority shareholders.

Ritchie's re-election, which is Resolution 2, is strongly supported by the NZOG board, but the board has opposed Resolutions 3 and 4, which are the election of shareholder-nominated candidates Brian Roulston and Samantha Sharif.

Roulston and Sharif have more impressive CVs than Ritchie, including energy experience, yet the NZOG board opposes Roulston and Sharif because Ritchie's election "would fill the seven person quota of board appointments".

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12291703

I think there are those that are still hoping that OGOG will grow a conscience at the last minute and abstain from the Director vote.

They will not, and Rod will continue with his snout in the trough unless he finds some self respect and resigns. But even in that situation we would not get anyone we put forward on the Board. OGOG would just find someone else more agreeable and install him or her.

So unless there is some kind of rule change for Independent Director voting in a situation like ours where we are a listed company with one large majority owner...OGOG are well within their rights to select whoever they want, and they will do so.

So this amounts to a protest vote from minority shareholders, but it does serve the purpose of reminding OGOG not to forget about us as we do still have rights, and expect fair dealings in future plans. When the final votes are tallied it will also give Gaynor some talking points in his next article to point out how minority shareholders have very little say when it comes to selecting 'Independent' Directors.

[blackcap]

Must be a good gig working for NZO.

16 employees out of a total of 20-25??? earn over $100k per annum. Of these 9 earn more than $200k and the average of the 16 is $273k The total is $4.3m.

Wonder what they did this last year for all that money. Sign me up!

[mistaTea]

Must be a good gig working for NZO.

16 employees out of a total of 20-25??? earn over $100k per annum. Of these 9 earn more than $200k and the average of the 16 is $273k The total is $4.3m.

Wonder what they did this last year for all that money. Sign me up!

Oh yes, money for jam alright! Especially considering very little was achieved over the last 12 months. The Ironbark deal was finalised, that's it.

When you add in wages for Cue staff that are doing the same roles as NZO I bet the cost double-up is even more stagerring.

Can't help but think we would be better off long-term with a single Cue-NZO entity so we could cut out a lot of the costs between staff and Director fees.

[blackcap]

Oh yes, money for jam alright! Especially considering very little was achieved over the last 12 months. The Ironbark deal was finalised, that's it.

When you add in wages for Cue staff that are doing the same roles as NZO I bet the cost double-up is even more stagerring.

Can't help but think we would be better off long-term with a single Cue-NZO entity so we could cut out a lot of the costs between staff and Director fees.

That is a very sensible suggestion. It would be a matter of getting CUE shareholders on board but even then that should not be too difficult as there are a lot of benefits for CUE as well in cutting costs, one could even argue that there are more benefits for CUE. Although it would mean the profile of a cue share changes and would not be as supercharged with the Ironbark drill. (i am guessing the cue shareholder has more to gain/less to lose than an NZO holder)

[Lion]

(i am guessing the cue shareholder has more to gain/less to lose than an NZO holder)

I decided to do the arithmetic on that question, blackcap. (I mean if there is no amalgamation, which, I agree, seems like a good idea)

An Australian ShareAnalysis article from June this year says a successful strike at Ironbark would have a ‘discovery value’ for NZO of $6.51 a share, for CUE of $1.31 and Beach (BPT) of 40c.

It’s not clear to me whether this discovery value is what the share price might become, or if it is on top of the existing SP.
Taking the lower option, the % increase on yesterday’s prices are 1042% for NZO, a remarkably similar 1048% for CUE and just 15% for Beach.

CUE does have less to lose though if Ironbark is not successful, as they have substantial other producing assets (and a drill result due any day now!)

NZO currently hold half of CUE, too, of course.

[mistaTea]

I decided to do the arithmetic on that question, blackcap. (I mean if there is no amalgamation, which, I agree, seems like a good idea)

An Australian ShareAnalysis article from June this year says a successful strike at Ironbark would have a ‘discovery value’ for NZO of $6.51 a share, for CUE of $1.31 and Beach (BPT) of 40c.

It’s not clear to me whether this discovery value is what the share price might become, or if it is on top of the existing SP.
Taking the lower option, the % increase on yesterday’s prices are 1042% for NZO, a remarkably similar 1048% for CUE and just 15% for Beach.

CUE does have less to lose though if Ironbark is not successful, as they have substantial other producing assets (and a drill result due any day now!)

NZO currently hold half of CUE, too, of course.

I think it is much simpler than that.

NZOG Market cap = approx $102M. If Cue thinks that $102M represents a fair value for NZOG and will generate a more attractive spread of costs over a combined asset base then they should be keen to do a merger (but in reverse whereby we end up with one entity listed on the Aussie stock exchange. A much better place for an Oil & Gas company to live given the current NZ political environment).

If Cue don't think NZOG is worth $102M then no point trying to go any further. Clearly, given I rejected both 62c and 74c I think NZOG is still on sale at 62c. But I don't speak for Cue.

We end up with a larger Cue listed on the ASX, with current NZO shareholders holding the majority of the shares in the 'Larger Cue'.

[blackcap]

I decided to do the arithmetic on that question, blackcap. (I mean if there is no amalgamation, which, I agree, seems like a good idea)

An Australian ShareAnalysis article from June this year says a successful strike at Ironbark would have a ‘discovery value’ for NZO of $6.51 a share, for CUE of $1.31 and Beach (BPT) of 40c.

It’s not clear to me whether this discovery value is what the share price might become, or if it is on top of the existing SP.
Taking the lower option, the % increase on yesterday’s prices are 1042% for NZO, a remarkably similar 1048% for CUE and just 15% for Beach.

CUE does have less to lose though if Ironbark is not successful, as they have substantial other producing assets (and a drill result due any day now!)

NZO currently hold half of CUE, too, of course.

My question is purely SP driven. If Ironbark were to fail what would the CUE SP be? If Ironbark were to fail what would the NZO SP be? I am guessing the NZO sp would go to about 45 cents (bottom) so that is a loss of 25%. I would think the Cue SP would go to 7? cents which represents a loss of 40%. But I could be wrong and on first glances you are right it does look very similar (the risk/reward trade off) so the merging of the two entities might be easier than at first thought.

[mistaTea]

To further clarify my thinking...

NZO MC = NZ$102M. That market value in theory takes into account the 50.04% of Cue shares held.

Cue MC = NZ$90M. Cue minority holders have ~50% of that, so their MC = NZ$45M.

The combined entity of NZO + minority Cue holders would theoretically have a Day 1 MC of NZ$147M then.

Cue ownership of 'Larger Cue' = $45M/$147M = 30.6% of the new entity. So the total value of their shares would be unchanged, however they own a smaller piece of a larger organisation that is much more efficient so far as costs go.

The combined entity will have a 36.5% stake in Ironbark. Current Cue minority holders would have 30.6% equity * 36.5% Ironbark = ~11% ownership. Right now they have ~50% equity of 21.5% Ironbark = ~10.75% effective ownership.

So at current market cap they would likely benefit slightly in terms of their Ironbark exposure. But the 0.25% is negligble in the scheme of things, and I reckon NZO shareholders would still go for it because the cost savings long term are so large.

[onlinesid]

Bought some at 0.625 coz hoping for change of government direction on the next election, fingers crossed

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/345739/313697.pdf

Looks like the Operator for Mahato is playing silly buggers.

Does not bode particularly well for the ongoing JV relationship.

[JBmurc]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/345739/313697.pdf

Looks like the Operator for Mahato is playing silly buggers.

Does not bode particularly well for the ongoing JV relationship.

Yes not happy CUE is my largest holding and was very much looking to a positive drilling ann. too now see the major JV partner now wants CUE out !!! I just don't get it did CUE not front with the correct J/V agreed funds ??? for their 12.5% what are they in breach of ???

[Wiremu]

Progress on Ironbark: https://info.nopsema.gov.au/environment_plans/482/show_public

Ironbark-1 will be the first well BP has drilled as operator for more than a decade.

[JBmurc]

Cue Energy Resources Limited (CUE or
Company) advises that the claimed cash call from the Operator of the Mahato PSC, Texcal
Mahato EP Ltd, which was the subject of the disputed default notice referred to in the ASX
announcement of 10th Dec 2019, has been paid by Cue.
Cue is not receiving information from the Operator as required under the Joint Operating
Agreement and is evaluating all available options to address this and other breaches under
this agreement.
The Company will keep the market informed of any material developments on this matter.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12294692

Some pressure for the Climate Change Commission to review the offshore ban.

Meanwhile Megan Woods thinks everything is A-OK because we will have 11 years of proven gas left...and a bunch of existing exploration permits of which we have no idea how many will actually be drilled now due to the government's policy...and of those that are drilled...how many will actually strike.

The current lot are unlikely to listen to reason (they haven't so far!). Only a change in government will lead to a policy change in my view.

[fish]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12294692

Some pressure for the Climate Change Commission to review the offshore ban.

Meanwhile Megan Woods thinks everything is A-OK because we will have 11 years of proven gas left...and a bunch of existing exploration permits of which we have no idea how many will actually be drilled now due to the government's policy...and of those that are drilled...how many will actually strike.

The current lot are unlikely to listen to reason (they haven't so far!). Only a change in government will lead to a policy change in my view.

We can only speculate about changes in government.
The truth needs to be known so people not governments force changes.
Your link is good and worth reading-Huntly is burning more coal than it has for a decade.
This is a very dirty deed and needs to be stopped.
The only way it can be stopped is more natural gas supply(technology can make natural gas carbon neutral and pollution free)

[Marilyn Munroe]

I am concerned the confidence oil explorers and developers had that the New Zealand Government behaved in a deliberative and rational way towards their industry has been destroyed.

A new government from a different political party would probably overturn the exploration ban but given the long development time and long productive life of an oil discovery why would any oil company risk a further change of government and reinstatement of the ban.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Davexl]

I am hoping for a rational climate change strategy to emerge where their is a clear differentiation between oil and gas discoveries where Gas is promoted at Oils and Coals expense. With Gas CO2 emmisions at 1/2 of Coal's we have a viable strategy for a future Hydrogen generation and export economy once the Carbon Capture issue is sorted. Gas has to be available as a transition energy source for the baseload generation in Dry years. and Coal boilers have to be switched to Electric and Biomass where feasible. The only downside to Gas is the issue of methane leakage which has to monitored by satellite. Methane has 25 times the impact of CO2 and can reduce the overall benefits of Gas if not tightly controlled. Legislation should be brought in to at least burn any previously flared methane and generate power eg in Capstone turbines.

[mistaTea]

I am concerned the confidence oil explorers and developers had that the New Zealand Government behaved in a deliberative and rational way towards their industry has been destroyed.

A new government from a different political party would probably overturn the exploration ban but given the long development time and long productive life of an oil discovery why would any oil company risk a further change of government and reinstatement of the ban.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I agree with the sentiment. It may well be that the damage is done now to New Zealand’s reputation in terms of a place to invest in hydrocarbon exploration. NZ was always viewed as ‘frontier’ - so spooking investors with an outright ban out of the blue was just damned foolish.

Reversing the damage will be hard for a future government. Let’s say National get back in next year (and that is a big ‘if’ given labour have already started planning the next round of large bribes...)

...So National overturn the ban right away. Good. Beyond that I actually think they would now need to utilise taxpayer dollars to provide additional sweeteners and assurances to would-be explorers.

In the case of Ironbark - BP has a good working relationship with OGOG and NZOG...but before they went anywhere near Ironbark they would have to like the odds of success for Ironbark AND be absolutely sure they would not get screwed over in 3 years time should the government change again.


Now we are in a situation whereby if we still want the gas (and we very much do) taxpayers are going to have to effectively pay towards the drills.

Just my opinion.

[dodgy]

I agree with the sentiment. It may well be that the damage is done now to New Zealand’s reputation in terms of a place to invest in hydrocarbon exploration. NZ was always viewed as ‘frontier’ - so spooking investors with an outright ban out of the blue was just damned foolish.

Reversing the damage will be hard for a future government. Let’s say National get back in next year (and that is a big ‘if’ given labour have already started planning the next round of large bribes...)

...So National overturn the ban right away. Good. Beyond that I actually think they would now need to utilise taxpayer dollars to provide additional sweeteners and assurances to would-be explorers.

In the case of Ironbark - BP has a good working relationship with OGOG and NZOG...but before they went anywhere near Ironbark they would have to like the odds of success for Ironbark AND be absolutely sure they would not get screwed over in 3 years time should the government change again.


Now we are in a situation whereby if we still want the gas (and we very much do) taxpayers are going to have to effectively pay towards the drills.

Just my opinion.


We may not "want" any more hydocarbons but we will need gas after years of flogging off to Methanex ? retrospectively, false economy now? Who knows.
dodgy

[RTM]

…..(and that is a big ‘if’ given labour have already started planning the next round of large bribes...)….
.

Lets not point the finger at Labour with respect to election bribes...

"National to replace 10 single lane bridges in Northland
Monday, 9 March 2015, 3:48 pm
Press Release: New Zealand National Party
National to replace 10 single lane bridges in Northland
National Party Northland candidate Mark Osborne today announced National will commit to replacing 10 single lane bridges on Northland's Twin Coast Highway over the next six years. "

They are both as bad as each other with respect to that !

[mistaTea]

Lets not point the finger at Labour with respect to election bribes...


They are both as bad as each other with respect to that !

Oh absolutely. Don't get me wrong - I am not suggesting Labour (or any other political party) is better or worse than National at coming out with big bribes close to an election.

They all do it, no doubt about it.

I am just pointing out that Labour have already advised what their hefty bribes are and we are yet to learn what National's counter-bribes will be.

[RTM]

Oh absolutely. Don't get me wrong - I am not suggesting Labour (or any other political party) is better or worse than National at coming out with big bribes close to an election.

They all do it, no doubt about it.

I am just pointing out that Labour have already advised what their hefty bribes are and we are yet to learn what National's counter-bribes will be.

Agree....I'm still waiting for Simon to steal the wind from Lab / NZ First by supporting the North Port transfer !

[Wiremu]

Interesting Beach Energy farm-in:

https://yourir.info/resources/0c5a441cf54ff229/announcements/bpt.asx/2A1193968/BPT_Frontier_Exploration_Farm-In_Agreed.pdf

[fish]

Interesting Beach Energy farm-in:

https://yourir.info/resources/0c5a441cf54ff229/announcements/bpt.asx/2A1193968/BPT_Frontier_Exploration_Farm-In_Agreed.pdf

So despite what Northington /NZO have been telling us there is a lot of value in this kind of frontier permit.

[Davexl]

Has anybody seen this? Bit of a bombshell to drop just as NZ Inc goes on holiday. Looks like the Cap has been put on Cap-in-Trade:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...to-ets-pricing (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/118348591/government-proposes-capping-emissions-at-2020-levels-with-huge-changes-to-ets-pricing)

"This means businesses will be paying at least $20 for every tonne of emissions and possibly up to $50. The fixed price at which the Government sell the credits would move from $35, up from $25 now.

Climate Change Minister James Shaw said research showed that a $40 price was around the point where businesses started seriously investing in cleaner technology.
The aim is to see net emissions peak at around 2020 levels and then begin falling from 2022, according to a draft "emissions budget" for the years 2021-2025. This budget would be superseded by the first emissions budget from the Climate Change Commission in 2022."

[fish]

Has anybody seen this? Bit of a bombshell to drop just as NZ Inc goes on holiday. Looks like the Cap has been put on Cap-in-Trade:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...to-ets-pricing (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/118348591/government-proposes-capping-emissions-at-2020-levels-with-huge-changes-to-ets-pricing)

"This means businesses will be paying at least $20 for every tonne of emissions and possibly up to $50. The fixed price at which the Government sell the credits would move from $35, up from $25 now.

Climate Change Minister James Shaw said research showed that a $40 price was around the point where businesses started seriously investing in cleaner technology.
The aim is to see net emissions peak at around 2020 levels and then begin falling from 2022, according to a draft "emissions budget" for the years 2021-2025. This budget would be superseded by the first emissions budget from the Climate Change Commission in 2022."

This must be good for NZO as coal will be replaced by gas(either directly or indirectly).

[Davexl]

This must be good for NZO as coal will be replaced by gas(either directly or indirectly).

With NZOG what is the split between Oil vs Gas resources. Obviously you do get one with the other but is it mostly Gas resources at this time?

[fish]

With NZOG what is the split between Oil vs Gas resources. Obviously you do get one with the other but is it mostly Gas resources at this time?

The biggest resource at this time is Cash.
They are gambling on 2 massive Gas Prospects each worth billions.
Ironbark-to be drilled soon-my unqualified opinion odds of success around 1 in 3(NZO say 1 in 20,CUE 1 in 4, Beach approx one in 3 and a retired BP employee close relation to me one in 2-BP itself does not state odds but they are excited by this prospect)
Barque is slightly smaller and lacks infrastructure but OGOG ,majority owner NZO makes FPSO solutions(converts big old tankers to production LPG and storage)so no other infrastructure necessary.We cannot count on Barque being drilled.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346459

Sudden departure.

[fish]

Big increase in sp on small volumes.
I can only speculate as to why.
Fortunately I bought a lot recently at 61 cents and certainly will not consider selling any until they reach a minimum low price -an honest fair price was 90 cents last year( mista tea low end valuation).
Might be a lot more now-we might see Australia changing from coal to gas-and Ironbark as likely as not could provide this(although NZO recently confirmed Northingtons assessed only a 1 in 20 chance so clearly no one would want to buy and the Independent Directors stated the sp could fall back to previous levels around 50 cents)

[tim23]

interesting price increase on no news, good to see, I rejected offer too.

[mistaTea]

Might be a lot more now-we might see Australia changing from coal to gas-and Ironbark as likely as not could provide this

Whether or not 'Global Warming' (or whatever you want to call it) is responsible for the latest bush fires, I imagine the Aussie government is going to be under sustained renewed pressure to speed up their transition to cleaner fuels. The warming climate certainly hasn't helped, that's for sure. The footage I have seen is bloody awful to watch - I really feel for them.

If there is a lot more pressure on their well-regarded and much-loved PM, I agree - when he is not surfing in Hawaii he will look to gas as the most likely stepping stone in a decades-long transition to lower emissions. Perhaps that will help generate more interest in the NZO stock as we get closer to drill.

Especially after Beach confirmed recently they don't do frontier exploration unless there is a 1/4 - 1/3 probability of commercial success minimum. Given their jubilance (shared by our CEO until recently for some strange reason...) we can assume the estimated success rate for Ironbark exceeds this.

Not a given that it will be successful later this year by any means - but if you are in the hydrocarbon exploration business, these are the best odds you could ever hope for really.

[digger]

I have been trying to buy lately as well. Order not filled but got some. I was the first in at 64 so i guess that is still me. Cue is also doing well. In fact I was going to buy more Cue but it is relative to NZO in my opinion it has less upside.
Trump certainly has stirred up the oil market. Have just come back from town where I bought 430 liters of Diesel. By the end of this week that amount of diesel will cost 80 dollars more. By keeping an eye on the WTI you have about a week before a large movement hits the pump. So I would say fill up before the end of the week to save a few dollars.

[fish]

The Sun still has not penetrated the smoke-24 hours of dark hazy sky.
Last night it was pretty dark at 7pm.
I think Digger you should think twice about using that Diesel !

[fish]

Whether or not 'Global Warming' (or whatever you want to call it) is responsible for the latest bush fires, I imagine the Aussie government is going to be under sustained renewed pressure to speed up their transition to cleaner fuels. The warming climate certainly hasn't helped, that's for sure. The footage I have seen is bloody awful to watch - I really feel for them.

If there is a lot more pressure on their well-regarded and much-loved PM, I agree - when he is not surfing in Hawaii he will look to gas as the most likely stepping stone in a decades-long transition to lower emissions. Perhaps that will help generate more interest in the NZO stock as we get closer to drill.

Especially after Beach confirmed recently they don't do frontier exploration unless there is a 1/4 - 1/3 probability of commercial success minimum. Given their jubilance (shared by our CEO until recently for some strange reason...) we can assume the estimated success rate for Ironbark exceeds this.

Not a given that it will be successful later this year by any means - but if you are in the hydrocarbon exploration business, these are the best odds you could ever hope for really.

70 cents now and not many shares on offer at less than 85 cents

[mistaTea]

70 cents now and not many shares on offer at less than 85 cents

According to Mr Market I am much wealthier today than I was on Friday. Even though nothing has actually changed for the business so far as I can tell.

To think, they still teach Efficient Market Theory! Remarkable really.

[fish]

According to Mr Market I am much wealthier today than I was on Friday. Even though nothing has actually changed for the business so far as I can tell.

To think, they still teach Efficient Market Theory! Remarkable really.



If Ironbark is successful you will be millions wealthier if the market prices in the Billions Ironbark will be worth
If unsuccessful according to market theory and Northingtons report only a tiny bit less wealthy as the money for the drill has already been escrewed and Ironbark has little value.
Even though we are told there will be no further takeover offer I do wonder if OGOG may reconsider in light of global events.They certainly are unlikely to try another scheme of arrangement.

[fish]

Whether or not 'Global Warming' (or whatever you want to call it) is responsible for the latest bush fires, I imagine the Aussie government is going to be under sustained renewed pressure to speed up their transition to cleaner fuels. The warming climate certainly hasn't helped, that's for sure. The footage I have seen is bloody awful to watch - I really feel for them.

If there is a lot more pressure on their well-regarded and much-loved PM, I agree - when he is not surfing in Hawaii he will look to gas as the most likely stepping stone in a decades-long transition to lower emissions. Perhaps that will help generate more interest in the NZO stock as we get closer to drill.

Especially after Beach confirmed recently they don't do frontier exploration unless there is a 1/4 - 1/3 probability of commercial success minimum. Given their jubilance (shared by our CEO until recently for some strange reason...) we can assume the estimated success rate for Ironbark exceeds this.

Not a given that it will be successful later this year by any means - but if you are in the hydrocarbon exploration business, these are the best odds you could ever hope for really.

The recent Beach Annual Report you mention makes a total lie of the view expressed by NZO Directors .They claimed that when CUE (was it Andrew Jefferies at the good oil conference) stated a 1 in 4 chance of success this was only of finding hydrocarbons but commercial success was only in reality a 1 in 20 chance .Furthermore the Beach report had no effect on the market price of NZO .In a truly efficient market believing company statements-and there is no reason to for any bias in the Beach annual report in contrast to NZO statements-we could have expected the NZO share price to increase significantly .One can only conclude that the recent volatility in the NZO share price has been a product of factors that the market cannot efficiently price.In other words the share price cannot be taken as a fair and reasonable reflection of the value of NZO .

[Wiremu]

Interesting and relevant article from the Herald:

https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-new-zealand-herald/20200107/281977494551330

[Sideshow Bob]

Could OCOG be back in the market? Are they allowed??

[fish]

Could OCOG be back in the market? Are they allowed??

Yes
IMHO The Takeovers panel will accept whatever reasons they give for coming back

[blackcap]

Could OCOG be back in the market? Are they allowed??

Not 100% sure how this works but under the creep provisions they are allowed to purchase up to 5% per year without invoking a full TO. With every 1% that they cross ie from 70.2% to 71.0001% they have to inform the market that they have been buying. So if they have been then once they hit 71% we will know it is them. Not sure it that is the route they (OGOG) want to take as it would just take forever.

[fish]

Not 100% sure how this works but under the creep provisions they are allowed to purchase up to 5% per year without invoking a full TO. With every 1% that they cross ie from 70.2% to 71.0001% they have to inform the market that they have been buying. So if they have been then once they hit 71% we will know it is them. Not sure it that is the route they (OGOG) want to take as it would just take forever.

I feel confident that they will not take this route.
Ironbark is scheduled to begin drilling anytime from april but more likely in the 3rd quarter this year.
Historically once a drill starts the sp rises-the "thrill of the drill"
Hence if they make another offer it is more likely to be sooner than later and the offer would have to be good enough to get 90% of the total shares-since they already have 70% they only need another 20% to have a successful takeove and get more cash from NZO coffers than they would have to pay for the outstanding 30% shares by my rough estimate(which could be wrong as we do not know how much they would have to pay)

[Fabs37]

Not 100% sure how this works but under the creep provisions they are allowed to purchase up to 5% per year without invoking a full TO. With every 1% that they cross ie from 70.2% to 71.0001% they have to inform the market that they have been buying. So if they have been then once they hit 71% we will know it is them. Not sure it that is the route they (OGOG) want to take as it would just take forever.

Could also of course have acquired a Percentage over the last 2 years via surrogates and still continuing doing so???
Also there my be some shills on this forum who knows, lets wait and see how this unfolds???

[Marilyn Munroe]

If the Tawhaki-1, shortly to be spudded-in, drill off the Otago Coast becomes a discovery it will turn the area from a frontier region to highly prospective. I expect this would cast a positive glow towards NZO's Barque prospect.

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/oil-rig-nearing-drilling-site-south-island-coast

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Wiremu]

Fish

"Ironbark is scheduled to begin drilling anytime from april but more likely in the 3rd quarter this year."

The Beach Energy website is showing the likely drilling date for Ironbark as - Drilling planned for FY21
.

[blackcap]

Could also of course have acquired a Percentage over the last 2 years via surrogates and still continuing doing so???
Also there my be some shills on this forum who knows, lets wait and see how this unfolds???

via surragates is possible but also illegal so not sure they would go there.

[fish]

Fish

"Ironbark is scheduled to begin drilling anytime from april but more likely in the 3rd quarter this year."

The Beach Energy website is showing the likely drilling date for Ironbark as - Drilling planned for FY21
.

The Ocean Apex rig has been booked for Ironbark.Just looked at a video about it.It is truly impressive-latest technology,can drill to 30000 feet and crew quarters accommodating 140.
Current location is Exmouth

[Fabs37]

via surragates is possible but also illegal so not sure they would go there.

Agree, hard to prove

[Marilyn Munroe]

via surragates is possible but also illegal so not sure they would go there.

A foolhardy action if they were to do this.

The securities solicitor advising them would be offering them two bits of advice;

1. NO! &

2. HELL NO!

And if the advice was ignored;

Get out of my office now.

Richmond & others v PPCS Limited [2004] 1 NZLR 256.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[mistaTea]

There is no reason to think that OGOG are doing anything illegal.

They may have tried to buy the company for a song, but any suggestion of illegal (or even borderline illegal) activity is nonsense.

They are a large and reputable organisation and I seriously doubt they would do something that stupid.

They have also told Brian Roulston to his face that there will be no additional takeover offers. They have reiterated this message to others too.

They may well exercise their right to grab another 5% of the stock. And if it is them buying up at the moment, so what?
It makes zero difference to the equity owners that plan to stick around for the Ironbark drill.

Whether OGOG own 70% or 75% is meaningless. In fact, it would make it harder in the future for them if they did change their mind about a takeover as the shareholders that are reluctant to sell would make up an even larger % of the remaining minority voter base.

[BWR]

"They have also told Brian Roulston to his face that there will be no additional takeover offers."

I can confirm what MisterTea is stating - the OGOG directors were quite definite that there would be no further offer, and were keen to learn what other shareholders want from the company. they will be reaching out to meet as many as they can to arrange one on one meetings. Noting that OGOG doesn't have any other company with third-party shareholders they were surprised at the feedback during the SoA process and have taken that on board.

Irrespective of the intent, they would be crazy to do anything stupid, especially so with their significant interests in other parts of the oil & gas industry.

[fish]

"They have also told Brian Roulston to his face that there will be no additional takeover offers."

I can confirm what MisterTea is stating - the OGOG directors were quite definite that there would be no further offer, and were keen to learn what other shareholders want from the company. they will be reaching out to meet as many as they can to arrange one on one meetings. Noting that OGOG doesn't have any other company with third-party shareholders they were surprised at the feedback during the SoA process and have taken that on board.

Irrespective of the intent, they would be crazy to do anything stupid, especially so with their significant interests in other parts of the oil & gas industry.

Agree they will do nothing illegal.
However it was not honest to tell the takeovers panel that Ironbark has only a 5% chance success.
They have also mislead us before on 2 occasions about no takeover offer
We know they are capable of deception and I think they are going to find it difficult to work with such a disparate group of minority shareholders .At the AGM we saw one very capable and hostile shareholder.
Just because they say no further takeover offer does not mean they will not change their mind.
New information from other drills,an increase in futures for gas etc could be a good reason
They may want to enter a major transaction and minority shareholders who vote against the transaction have a right to be bought out at a fair and reasonable price.
My feeling is they are not buying shares as really there will be no point as they cannot get to 90% for at least 4 years.
The only thing that makes sense is to make a takeover offer at a fair and reasonable price

[BWR]

Fish, there was a lot wrong with the SoA process, but to be fair the OGOG directors weren't involved in that.

The 5% chance of success and other similar misleading factors were very much the fault of the Takeovers Panel itself together with Northington and the chair of the independent directors. Amateur hour is the term that comes to mind.

OGOG know from the feedback they received that it is going to be difficult to deal with shareholders with their wide range of views as to the way forward.

[mistaTea]

Fish, there was a lot wrong with the SoA process, but to be fair the OGOG directors weren't involved in that.

The 5% chance of success and other similar misleading factors were very much the fault of the Takeovers Panel itself together with Northington and the chair of the independent directors. Amateur hour is the term that comes to mind.

OGOG know from the feedback they received that it is going to be difficult to deal with shareholders with their wide range of views as to the way forward.

Agreed. And I don’t actually think it is in the best interest of the business for OGOG to spend a lot of time trying to canvass some kind of consensus from minority holders that they will never achieve.

They, along with Management, are supposed to be the experts and they need to chart a way forward. Just like we expected them to do before the SoA.

Trying to get useful information about what they specifically need to do from a generalist investor like myself would be nuts.

If they decide in the future that they want to have another crack at buying out the minority interest, then yes - they should have discussions with the larger minority holders to get a feel around expectations. Fairfax did this very thing when they attempted to buy Tower - and they got the blessing of two of the largest shareholders. The deal ultimately failed - but not because of their process. It failed because Vero were more cunning.

So beyond consultation in the future should they change their mind about a takeover - I think they just need to get on with it. Do with the cash what they would have done if NZOG was a private business. In other words, what they determine is on the best long term interest of the organisation as a going concern. The fact the company is listed and has many shareholders (instead of just one) is irrelevant in my view.

[fish]

Agreed. And I don’t actually think it is in the best interest of the business for OGOG to spend a lot of time trying to canvass some kind of consensus from minority holders that they will never achieve.

They, along with Management, are supposed to be the experts and they need to chart a way forward. Just like we expected them to do before the SoA.

Trying to get useful information about what they specifically need to do from a generalist investor like myself would be nuts.

If they decide in the future that they want to have another crack at buying out the minority interest, then yes - they should have discussions with the larger minority holders to get a feel around expectations. Fairfax did this very thing when they attempted to buy Tower - and they got the blessing of two of the largest shareholders. The deal ultimately failed - but not because of their process. It failed because Vero were more cunning.

So beyond consultation in the future should they change their mind about a takeover - I think they just need to get on with it. Do with the cash what they would have done if NZOG was a private business. In other words, what they determine is on the best long term interest of the organisation as a going concern. The fact the company is listed and has many shareholders (instead of just one) is irrelevant in my view..

My feeling is that they cannot do with the cash as if it was a private business.
They have to work with the minority shareholders and are confined by the companies act.
They have no experience of this.
So far they have not been well-advised judging by their use of the SOA which has resulted in hostile feelings amongst some minority shareholders.
Personally I do not feel hostile but I no longer trust the Independent directors and OGOG -voting for Rod to be re-elected may be see to be endorsing a duplicitous director(he is a director on CUE and if he was honest would not have supported the Northington report).

[k14]

Interesting and relevant article from the Herald:

https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-new-zealand-herald/20200107/281977494551330
Thanks for the link, very interesting article. I love this bit "Kid said the chances of a discovery in frontier waters were low, with odds of success about one in eight". If that's the case for frontier waters then what is Ironbark with 1 in 20 odds?

Have enjoyed following this thread throughout the takeover attempt as a very new/novice investor I have learnt quite a bit. I've just taken the plunge and bought a small stake in NZO so I can jump on the bus for for the "1 in 20" chance of success :)

[mistaTea]

Speculation on a Cue thread - if PB-1 comes through the SP could go upwards of 20c.

If that is true, and if the NZX increases by a corresponding market cap for NZO’s share then the SP could lift to 75c- 80c.

Not sure if any of the recent gain to 68c takes into account the possibility of a discovery at Mahato.

[mistaTea]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200110/pdf/44d5xk6t56gxcr.pdf

Speak of the Devil. I just got this update.

What the hell is going on with The Operator?

If they really are not sharing information that is required under the agreement with Cue - that is absolutely outrageous. I can’t understand why they would do that and expose themselves to litigation.

[Lion]

Speculation on a Cue thread - if PB-1 comes through the SP could go upwards of 20c.



I wonder where you saw this, mistaTea? I can't see it on HotCopper. Quite interesting.

Yeah, it looks like something underhand there - the operator have been paid what they wanted, but are still refusing to say what the result of the drill is. Except to say it has been drilled.

The drill was in Indonesia, the operators from Yemen. I hope if it goes to court, that that would be in Australia and not in either of those other 2 countries.

CUE's 6.9% rise today to a record high might suggest there is a good result at PB-1 and someone knows about it. Or it could be pre-Ironbark thrill-of-the-drill. Or both.

By the way, someone here said Ironbark could drill as early as April. I haven't heard that, I'd thought September was the best guess. Can anyone comment on this?

[Rowdy Flat]

Could also of course have acquired a Percentage over the last 2 years via surrogates and still continuing doing so???
Also there my be some shills on this forum who knows, lets wait and see how this unfolds???

The Takeovers Code states that purchase by associates (I assume that's what you mean by 'surrogates'?) have to be added to the total held.

See p10: https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/GuideImages/2b4029e916/Final-Shareholders-Guide-December-2018.pdf

As to forum shills, maybe you could adjust your tin foil hat.

[mistaTea]

I wonder where you saw this, mistaTea? I can't see it on HotCopper. Quite interesting.



https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5040-CUE-gt-Pantheon-of-small-oil-stocks&p=785016&viewfull=1#post785016

This was the post where I saw the speculation of the magnitude of SP increase Cue might experience if PB-1 is successful.

At the time of that posting, 20c would represent a 6c increase in SP - or a market cap of $40ish million. No idea how the poster arrived at that figure, but does not seem ridiculous at all.

$20M of that (our half) would be the equivalent of 12c per share for NZO.

[JBmurc]

I wonder where you saw this, mistaTea? I can't see it on HotCopper. Quite interesting.

Yeah, it looks like something underhand there - the operator have been paid what they wanted, but are still refusing to say what the result of the drill is. Except to say it has been drilled.

The drill was in Indonesia, the operators from Yemen. I hope if it goes to court, that that would be in Australia and not in either of those other 2 countries.

CUE's 6.9% rise today to a record high might suggest there is a good result at PB-1 and someone knows about it. Or it could be pre-Ironbark thrill-of-the-drill. Or both.

By the way, someone here said Ironbark could drill as early as April. I haven't heard that, I'd thought September was the best guess. Can anyone comment on this?

Latest out from CUE ... Melbourne, Australia 10 January 2020: Cue Energy Resources Limited (the Company) advises that though its 100% subsidiary, Cue Mahato Pty Ltd (Cue), it has been informed by the Operator of the Mahato PSC, Texcal Mahato EP Ltd, that the PB-2 well has been drilled.


Now add this into an older ann.-

Melbourne, Australia 21 November 2019: The PB-1 exploration well in the Mahato PSC, Indonesia commenced drilling on 19 November 2019 at 1200 hrs local time. PB-1 is planned as an exploration well to test the PB prospect. It will be to be drilled to a TD of 1750m (5750 ft) m and is expected to take approximately 1 week to drill. The PB prospect is a 3-way dip closed structure, part of the Petapahan thrust/wrench system. The primary objective of the PB-1 well is to test the Early Miocene Bekasap reservoirs which are the producing reservoirs at the nearby Petapahan and Kotabatak fields. The secondary objective is the Middle Miocene Telisa reservoir, one of the producing reservoirs at the Kotabatak oil field. If successful, a logging and testing plan has been prepared for evaluation of the well. A decision on a follow on appraisal well, PB-2, will be taken once the results of PB-1 are reviewed and understood. The Mahato PSC is operated by Texcal Mahato EP Ltd. Cue Mahato Pty Ltd (a 100% subsidiary of Cue Energy Resources Limited) holds 12.5% participating interest.


So IMHO the A-hat operators 'Texcal Mahato"(owned by Sabson muti-billion cap Saudi's) did hit great Oil shows in PB-1 as to why they now have drilled PB-2

This of course is know by some parties which are loading up in CUE shares >>> I can't see how Texcal can withhold info from CUE for much longer >> could well end up in court in Aussie?

[mistaTea]

https://katadata.co.id/berita/2019/12/23/texcal-mahato-pindah-pengeboran-ke-sumur-pb-2-blok-mahato

After using Google Translate:

"Texcal Mahato has been piloting the drilling of the PB-1 Mahato Block exploration well . Even so, the company has not yet received conclusive or conclusive test results. Therefore, the company plans to move drilling to PB-2 wells. "The PB-1 well has been tested, but it is not conclusive yet. So, we decided to move first to drill the PB-2 wells in the same wellpad ," said Deputy of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities ( SKK Migas ) Julius Wiratno to Katadata.co.id , today (12/23).

Julius explained, the current status of the Mahato Block is an exploration block managed by Texcal Mahato. The company is also committed to drilling two exploration wells PB-1 and PB-2. "The commitment of two exploration wells, PB-1 and PB-2. The investment value of two wells is around US $ 7 million," Julius said. (Read: SKK Migas Reveals Oil Findings in the Kuala Pambuang Block )"


So, results from PB-1 were 'inconclusive' according to this write up. Not sure what to make of that.

[digger]

I get the feeling that Texcal is giving back some of the crap to OGOG through Cue that OGOG gave to the market about the 1 in 20 for ironbark. What I am getting at here is that once you start this funny stuff you never know where it will end or where some form of this twisted thinking will break out next.

Naturally Texcal is right in saying PB-1 is inconclusive and it always will be. The Tue well is also inconclusive and even today you can not say with 100% certainly how much it will produce.



Strange though isn't it that while PB-1 is inconclusive it isn't so all inconclusive that the drilling of PB-2 has to be delayed

[JBmurc]

I get the feeling that Texcal is giving back some of the crap to OGOG through Cue that OGOG gave to the market about the 1 in 20 for ironbark. What I am getting at here is that once you start this funny stuff you never know where it will end or where some form of this twisted thinking will break out next.

Naturally Texcal is right in saying PB-1 is inconclusive and it always will be. The Tue well is also inconclusive and even today you can not say with 100% certainly how much it will produce.



Strange though isn't it that while PB-1 is inconclusive it isn't so all inconclusive that the drilling of PB-2 has to be delayed

inconclusive to how much oil they just discovered and what it will flow at ... 20MMbbls upside target

[fish]

I get the feeling that Texcal is giving back some of the crap to OGOG through Cue that OGOG gave to the market about the 1 in 20 for ironbark. What I am getting at here is that once you start this funny stuff you never know where it will end or where some form of this twisted thinking will break out next.

Naturally Texcal is right in saying PB-1 is inconclusive and it always will be. The Tue well is also inconclusive and even today you can not say with 100% certainly how much it will produce.



Strange though isn't it that while PB-1 is inconclusive it isn't so all inconclusive that the drilling of PB-2 has to be delayed

Hiding and manipulating information seems to be part of how some companies operate.
It is so good that this forum sources information and debates the limited information these companies choose to feed us.
Digger how long have you been invested in NZOG? Thanks for your wisdom whenever I have sought advice(I have done this for at least 12 years)

[mistaTea]

...20MMbbls upside target

I assume you mean 20MMbbls upside attributable to Cue.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12301929

Here we go! Good old Shane 'The Rangatira' Jones trying to distance himself from the greenies and sidle up to the conservative provincial vote leading up to an election.

Sorry Shaney my boy, you didn't say boo when they banned future offshore oil & gas exploration. You literally stood there and said nothing when Comrade Ardern delivered the 'great news' to NZ.

They should have kaiboshed that ridiculous policy just like they did with the CGT. But no, they didn't and soon we shall see if their relationship with Labour and The Greens will cost them votes.

[blackcap]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12301929

Here we go! Good old Shane 'The Rangatira' Jones trying to distance himself from the greenies and sidle up to the conservative provincial vote leading up to an election.

Sorry Shaney my boy, you didn't say boo when they banned future offshore oil & gas exploration. I believe you literally stood there and said nothing when Comrad Ardern delivered the 'great news' to NZ.

They should have kaiboshed that ridiculous policy just like they did with the CGT. But no, they didn't and soon we shall see if their relationship with Labour and The Greens will cost them votes.

Well said MT. I can remember that moment all too well. He just stood there and sold us down the toilet. That and some other things they have not said boo about have ruined NZ First's trust for me. I trust they will lose votes and will go as far and say they will not make the 5% threshold come election time.

[Waikaka]

Followed this thread for a while and thought I might stick my oar in.

Mainly in respect to BP farming into Ironbark and NZOG exposure. Seems like there has been plenty of discussions on what sort of probability of success BP might need to farm in. I can categorically say it is not set at a certain cut off (ie 1 in 2). For example if a prospect that is near existing acreage or infrastructure, they might farm in to a prospect with much lower chance of success. In the case of Ironbark, the development case they may have it tying into NW Shelf JV North Rankine infrastructure built in the mid 80's that is now on low pressure recovery for the last remaining gas. BP is in the NWS JV. I understand the NWS-JV are looking at tolling third party gas through their kit, although as usual the lawyers are doing their best to get the second yacht but it will happen. BP would have interest both ways as tolling party and supplier of gas.

Last time I looked at creaming curves for Carnarvon, I got technical success rate of 22% and ~10% for commercial finds. I figure Ironbark has about that chance.

Personally I like Ironbark and the Carnarvon Basin is a prolific area with about 70% of Australian reserves located off the Nth West coast. Shows are nearby and not ridiculously far from existing infrastructure that has ullage. I love a frontier exploration play and admire Cue tenacity and perseverance with the permit. Just want to flag that best not get too in enthusiastic and if I was valuing Ironbark as part of NZOG I would probably treat it as zero.

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

NZOG has been in the farmout business for such a long time it is important to not get too caught up in your own marketing hype.

The car has always had one careful lady owner.

[mistaTea]

Followed this thread for a while and thought I might stick my oar in.

Mainly in respect to BP farming into Ironbark and NZOG exposure. Seems like there has been plenty of discussions on what sort of probability of success BP might need to farm in. I can categorically say it is not set at a certain cut off (ie 1 in 2). For example if a prospect that is near existing acreage or infrastructure, they might farm in to a prospect with much lower chance of success. In the case of Ironbark, the development case they may have it tying into NW Shelf JV North Rankine infrastructure built in the mid 80's that is now on low pressure recovery for the last remaining gas. BP is in the NWS JV. I understand the NWS-JV are looking at tolling third party gas through their kit, although as usual the lawyers are doing their best to get the second yacht but it will happen. BP would have interest both ways as tolling party and supplier of gas.

Last time I looked at creaming curves for Carnarvon, I got technical success rate of 22% and ~10% for commercial finds. I figure Ironbark has about that chance.

Personally I like Ironbark and the Carnarvon Basin is a prolific area with about 70% of Australian reserves located off the Nth West coast. Shows are nearby and not ridiculously far from existing infrastructure that has ullage. I love a frontier exploration play and admire Cue tenacity and perseverance with the permit. Just want to flag that best not get too in enthusiastic and if I was valuing Ironbark as part of NZOG I would probably treat it as zero.

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

NZOG has been in the farmout business for such a long time it is important to not get too caught up in your own marketing hype.

The car has always had one careful lady owner.

Thanks for the comments - great to have a range of perspectives come through. You are right about not getting too excited given the odds of success....though, quite naturally, there is bound to be a certain element of excitement as we approach the date where we spud. The so-called "thrill of the drill".

I can assure you that none of the fellow investors I have had direct conversations with think of Ironbark as a 'sure thing'. Some investors are more bullish than others, sure, but everyone is consciously aware that on a pure statistical probability view...Ironbark is more likely to fail than succeed.

I am not sure where you get the 10% commercial success figure from - and even if I did, it just becomes another pointless figure to argue about. Given the very recent bullish statements from Beach and BP regarding the prospect, I struggle to arrive at 10%. But I could be wrong, and you may know a lot more about the industry than I.

The other part of the equation for the investor is how much he or she paid for their stock. If someone bought in years ago at $1.50...there may be a larger element of praying to all the known gods that this works out so that they don't realise a large loss. If Ironbark fails...unless the prospects of drilling Clipper change dramatically, I think liquidation has to be on the cards.

In my case, I am currently 'on the table' for about 53c/share. So even if Ironbark has high odds of commercial success...let's just say for arguments sake the JV actually believe those odds to be a whopping 30%. That means there is a 70% chance that we will fail.

But that's not the end of the world for me...and hence my strong desire to stick around for the drill. I have bought in at a price that almost gives me a free shot at a truly massive drill. Monish Parbrai calls this wonderful situation "Heads I win, Tails I don't lose - much".

[Marilyn Munroe]

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.



Will OMV or Beach publish drilling progress reports?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Drill ship COSLProspector is on on-site and presumably drilling.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:1082140/mmsi:565369000/imo:9649005/vessel:COSLPROSPECTOR

[fish]

Followed this thread for a while and thought I might stick my oar in.

Mainly in respect to BP farming into Ironbark and NZOG exposure. Seems like there has been plenty of discussions on what sort of probability of success BP might need to farm in. I can categorically say it is not set at a certain cut off (ie 1 in 2). For example if a prospect that is near existing acreage or infrastructure, they might farm in to a prospect with much lower chance of success. In the case of Ironbark, the development case they may have it tying into NW Shelf JV North Rankine infrastructure built in the mid 80's that is now on low pressure recovery for the last remaining gas. BP is in the NWS JV. I understand the NWS-JV are looking at tolling third party gas through their kit, although as usual the lawyers are doing their best to get the second yacht but it will happen. BP would have interest both ways as tolling party and supplier of gas.

Last time I looked at creaming curves for Carnarvon, I got technical success rate of 22% and ~10% for commercial finds. I figure Ironbark has about that chance.

Personally I like Ironbark and the Carnarvon Basin is a prolific area with about 70% of Australian reserves located off the Nth West coast. Shows are nearby and not ridiculously far from existing infrastructure that has ullage. I love a frontier exploration play and admire Cue tenacity and perseverance with the permit. Just want to flag that best not get too in enthusiastic and if I was valuing Ironbark as part of NZOG I would probably treat it as zero.

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

NZOG has been in the farmout business for such a long time it is important to not get too caught up in your own marketing hype.

The car has always had one careful lady owner.

Welcome your view but do not share it for many reasons
Both cue and Beach give much higher success rates and BP would not consider drilling a well with only one in 10 chance success.
You quote historic success rates without taking into account new technology and knowledge.
Recent frontier deep water drilling is producing success rates of 1 in 3 .
You give no value to Ironbark after stating a significant success rate(Ironbark is so big that Andrew Jefferies stated at the agm it was worth drilling as a gamble on a 3% success rate).A lot of things we all do in life is a kind of gamble .This is a gamble with odds and reward having to be taken into account .Its a gamble I like and you do not so I suspect you will not be buying NZO (In contrast I am still buying)

You also fail to mention all the options to get the gas to the best markets.OGOG just happen to be experts at converting old oil tankers into offshore production and storage of LPG.

[Waikaka]

Welcome your view but do not share it for many reasons
Both cue and Beach give much higher success rates and BP would not consider drilling a well with only one in 10 chance success.
You quote historic success rates without taking into account new technology and knowledge.
Recent frontier deep water drilling is producing success rates of 1 in 3 .
You give no value to Ironbark after stating a significant success rate(Ironbark is so big that Andrew Jefferies stated at the agm it was worth drilling as a gamble on a 3% success rate).A lot of things we all do in life is a kind of gamble .This is a gamble with odds and reward having to be taken into account .Its a gamble I like and you do not so I suspect you will not be buying NZO (In contrast I am still buying)

You also fail to mention all the options to get the gas to the best markets.OGOG just happen to be experts at converting old oil tankers into offshore production and storage of LPG.

Cue and NZOG quote high success rates cause they are the car salesman. It is there job to be bullish. The investor must way up their statements and be conservative.
Regarding BP and improved technology, 3D seismic has been around since the early 90’s and we have gotten better but it is getting harder and harder to find fields. People have drilled off shore for 70 years in Carnarvon. We drill more and more wells to find less and less resources. What we do find is more expensive to develop and often shorter life span. Commercial success in frontier basins will be around 10% which is fine as the payoff is huge.

[Waikaka]

Will OMV or Beach publish drilling progress reports?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Drill ship COSLProspector is on on-site and presumably drilling.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:1082140/mmsi:565369000/imo:9649005/vessel:COSLPROSPECTOR

Yup rig on station and anchored up.

OMV won’t announce anything, they are sneaking the rig around to try and avoid protesters. They never flagged Gladstone-1 which they drilled before it mob'd to GSB.

Beach may announce the results, if we are lucky it might be weekly.

Tawhaki-1 should be drilled quick if they don't have anything unexpected. Super deep water but a relatively shallow hole from the seafloor.

[Waikaka]

I am fan of NZOG, they work hard and Kupe would never have been developed without their dogged tenacity.

You all are deeper in the guts but from what I can see Maari is on its last legs and will not produce significant cashflow from here, Jadestone may or may not get operatorship. Either way it needs a large development program (really significant capex) their current production forecast is:
2020 = 1.46 mmbbl
2021 = .98 mmbbl
2022 = .72 mmbbl
2023 = Abandoned
As we have seen from Tui et al super risky being involved in end of life assets.

Kupe is different with 3P gas of 329 PJ, 3P oil of 49.1 mmbbl. Lots of gas and oil left. Should be a good little earner. While deliverability is down and the future will need more interventions and investment it should be long life and still earn some coin.
I have sat on the fence with NZOG with $110mil market cap and ~$100mil in cash it is cheap buying.
They have lots of cash in the bank but a tendency to spend it pretty quick on dry holes ie Kohakutai et al

I am not at buying yet but a little cheaper and I would be in. Hence starting to kick the tyres

[fish]

Cue and NZOG quote high success rates cause they are the car salesman. It is there job to be bullish. The investor must way up their statements and be conservative.
Regarding BP and improved technology, 3D seismic has been around since the early 90’s and we have gotten better but it is getting harder and harder to find fields. People have drilled off shore for 70 years in Carnarvon. We drill more and more wells to find less and less resources. What we do find is more expensive to develop and often shorter life span. Commercial success in frontier basins will be around 10% which is fine as the payoff is huge.

agreed the payoff is Huge but we do not know the chance of commercial success .NZOG actually quote a 5% chance of commercial success but say it is a gamble worth taking if only a 3% chance !
Ironbark if successful will most likely be a giant with a long lifespan

My opinion if BP are involved there is a minimum 30% chance of commercial success

[mistaTea]

My opinion if BP are involved there is a minimum 30% chance of commercial success

My opinion is that they are expecting around the 30% too.

If it was just Cue and NZO quoting high success figures during the farm in process I would be more sceptical.

But the JV is set up now, and there is no need to bullsh1t anymore (if they were fibbing to start with, that is).

The deal is signed, money secured and we are waiting to drill. I can’t see why Beach would be saying their anticipated odds exceed their 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 minimum now unless they actually meant it.

Perhaps I am being naive - but what would they gain at this stage by overstating the odds given the deal is already locked in?

[digger]

My opinion is that they are expecting around the 30% too.

If it was just Cue and NZO quoting high success figures during the farm in process I would be more sceptical.

But the JV is set up now, and there is no need to bullsh1t anymore (if they were fibbing to start with, that is).

The deal is signed, money secured and we are waiting to drill. I can’t see why Beach would be saying their anticipated odds exceed their 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 minimum now unless they actually meant it.

Perhaps I am being naive - but what would they gain at this stage by overstating the odds given the deal is already locked in?

Agreed mistaTea the odds mean nothing now---let the drill bit do the talking.
Bought another lot recently---will be buying more. Just shows how much credit I give the odds of success at 5% but now down to zero.. I have never taken part in a drill with zero chance of success but then the dry wells were exactally that---zero.

Cheers all let get on with the drilling

[mistaTea]

With the Ironbark drill being scheduled for Q3 2020 - that means they could start drilling anywhere between July - September this year? Most likely at the end of the quarter?

I don't subscribe to Upstream, but it looks like there is a recent article in there that says BP have had to resubmit their Environmental Plan.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/bps-ironbark-gas-giant-drill-plans-under-scrutiny/2-1-741857

Anyone on this thread subscribe and can shed some light on what the issue is?

If it starts in September (hopefully no delays), they reckon it could take 70 - 90 days to drill.

With a little luck, Santa will give us a nice Christmas present this year!

[Wiremu]

With the Ironbark drill being scheduled for Q3 2020 - that means they could start drilling anywhere between July - September this year? Most likely at the end of the quarter?

I don't subscribe to Upstream, but it looks like there is a recent article in there that says BP have had to resubmit their Environmental Plan.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/bps-ironbark-gas-giant-drill-plans-under-scrutiny/2-1-741857

Anyone on this thread subscribe and can shed some light on what the issue is?

If it starts in September (hopefully no delays), they reckon it could take 70 - 90 days to drill.

With a little luck, Santa will give us a nice Christmas present this year!

MistaTea, from what I can see there is no issue. For the latest at Nopsema have a look at https://consultation.nopsema.gov.au/environment-division/5084/

This consultation report followed the earlier environmental plan: https://www.nopsema.gov.au/assets/epdocuments/A677874.pdf

Upstream may know something which is not yet public, but not out of the ordinary if you look at Equinor.

There is nothing on Nopsema advising this has to be resubmitted, as has happened with Equinor as an example.

[mistaTea]

Cue Quarterly Report out:

http://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f2e7554f-6c38-4f80-af3f-1abf0bf6a8dd/QuarterlyReportforPeriodEnded31December2019

Ticking along, although this Mahato dispute is somewhat disconcerting! I don't really care who is right or wrong...I just want them to sort it out so we can find out the results of the drill.

[fish]

Cue Quarterly Report out:

http://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f2e7554f-6c38-4f80-af3f-1abf0bf6a8dd/QuarterlyReportforPeriodEnded31December2019

Ticking along, although this Mahato dispute is somewhat disconcerting! I don't really care who is right or wrong...I just want them to sort it out so we can find out the results of the drill.


NZO quarterly report is out today.
To me things are tickling along nicely.
Still over $100m in cash-The market does not appear to value anything else so to me Ironbark is a free gamble on finding a trillion dollar plus worth of gas.
More money spent on researching Ironbark and plans to drill later this year with Ocean Apex.
It is going to be really exciting.

Also got an invitation yesterday as MistaTea had suggested might happen which I have accepted and looking forward to later next month.

[mistaTea]

NZO quarterly report is out today.
To me things are tickling along nicely.
Still over $100m in cash-The market does not appear to value anything else so to me Ironbark is a free gamble on finding a trillion dollar plus worth of gas.
More money spent on researching Ironbark and plans to drill later this year with Ocean Apex.
It is going to be really exciting.

Also got an invitation yesterday as MistaTea had suggested might happen which I have accepted and looking forward to later next month.

Agree with your sentiment fish. Nothing much changed, just ticking along while we await the big drill.

I also received an invitation from Alistair. Have agreed to meet with him at the end of Feb and provide my perspective.

I commend them for realising that we are their business partners - and they do actually need to talk to us before making big decisions. However I am sure they will get a range of opinions, so what they make of it all and how it becomes useful to them planning for the future will be interesting.