NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[fish]

Agree with your sentiment fish. Nothing much changed, just ticking along while we await the big drill.

I also received an invitation from Alistair. Have agreed to meet with him at the end of Feb and provide my perspective.

I commend them for realising that we are their business partners - and they do actually need to talk to us before making big decisions. However I am sure they will get a range of opinions, so what they make of it all and how it becomes useful to them planning for the future will be interesting.

Personally I am happy to go with the flow so talking to me might end up with me finding out from the horses mouth their intentions.
For instance Barque is only mentioned in passing but a lot has happened which I was unaware about

eg google offshore technologies barque-
an excerpt-SHARE
PROJECT TYPE
Offshore oil and gas field
LOCATION
Canterbury, New Zealand
ANTICIPATED START OF PRODUCTION
2025
RESOURCES
5tcf of gas and light oilExpand
Barque is an undrilled offshore oil and gas prospect located in the Clipper permit (PEP 52717) within the Canterbury Basin, approximately 60km east of Oamaru, offshore New Zealand.

New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG) is the operator, holding a 50% stake in the Clipper permit, while Beach Energy holds the remaining interest.

The joint venture completed an economic impact study (EIS) for the prospect in 2017, with co-funding from the New Zealand Trade & Enterprise. The EIS predicted that the Barque prospect has a resource base of more than five trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and light oil.

NZOG is currently in discussions with potential farm-in partners for the development of the field. The Energy and Resources Minister of New Zealand has allowed the JV to determine a well commitment for the prospect by April 2022, from an earlier deadline of April 2019.

Barque prospect location and geology
The Barque prospect is located in 800m of water, approximately 60km from the Galleon-1 well, which was drilled in 1985. The Clipper permit extends over an area of 2,601km².

The prospect is identified as a large cretaceous structural trap of approximately 150km², with target formations located between 2,500m and 3,000m below mean sea level.

Appraisal and development plans for the Barque prospect
The joint venture of NZOG and Beach completed reprocessing of 1,250km of vintage 2D seismic data in 2013 and acquired approximately 650km² of high-quality 3D seismic data.

The seismic data identified three target reservoirs in the prospect, namely Barque Fm (primary), Herbert Sandstone and Intra Paleogene 3.

Two scenarios have been identified for the development of the field, offshore and gas-to-shore. The development plans will be finalised upon drilling the discovery well.

Barque prospect’s offshore development scenario
The offshore scenario calls for the extraction of fluids through ten production wells, as well as processing on an offshore vessel for direct export to markets. Condensate from the fluids will be separated, while the gas is proposed to be re-injected into the reservoir.

Offshore operations, expected to be started in 2025, would extract approximately 460 million metric barrels of oil (Mmbo) through the field’s life of 35 years. Onshore activities are limited to servicing and maintenance under the scenario, which also proposes to extract the recycled gas in future

[digger]

Agree with your sentiment fish. Nothing much changed, just ticking along while we await the big drill.

I also received an invitation from Alistair. Have agreed to meet with him at the end of Feb and provide my perspective.

I commend them for realising that we are their business partners - and they do actually need to talk to us before making big decisions. However I am sure they will get a range of opinions, so what they make of it all and how it becomes useful to them planning for the future will be interesting.

I got my invite from Marco Argentieri and Alastair in my inbox. Not excited about talking peanuts anymore,so if you do talk to Alastair thank him for turning down my offer to sell in the 90's.. That small figure is no longer valid. Will wait the drill.

[fish]

I got my invite from Marco Argentieri and Alastair in my inbox. Not excited about talking peanuts anymore,so if you do talk to Alastair thank him for turning down my offer to sell in the 90's.. That small figure is no longer valid. Will wait the drill.

I do not believe that is why they want to meet and I certainly will not be bringing up a price I would accept.
I am sure they already know we are pleased their misleading and paltry offer failed .

[blackcap]

I do not believe that is why they want to meet and I certainly will not be bringing up a price I would accept.
I am sure they already know we are pleased their misleading and paltry offer failed .

I believe they want to meet to see what the consensus is amoungst the minority shareholders about the direction of the company and if there is appetite for more exploration etc. I am not sure they will be discussing a price.

[mistaTea]

I believe they want to meet to see what the consensus is amoungst the minority shareholders about the direction of the company and if there is appetite for more exploration etc. I am not sure they will be discussing a price.

Yeah they want to gather the views of minority shareholders to factor it in to any decisions they make on the future. A consensus will not be achievable though - there will be a wide range of views from minority holders.

Views from liquidating the company in the scenario where Ironbark fails to taking the remaining cash and pouring it into more exploration.

Price will not come into the discussion as they are not looking to attempt another takeover. That may change in the future depending on the results from Ironbark, but I believe them when they say there will be no more offers.

[fish]

Yeah they want to gather the views of minority shareholders to factor it in to any decisions they make on the future. A consensus will not be achievable though - there will be a wide range of views from minority holders.

Views from liquidating the company in the scenario where Ironbark fails to taking the remaining cash and pouring it into more exploration.

Price will not come into the discussion as they are not looking to attempt another takeover. That may change in the future depending on the results from Ironbark, but I believe them when they say there will be no more offers.

personally I would be against liquidation if Ironbark fails-ogog has been around NZ for a long-time and would be in an enviable position to bid for those assets that they have inside knowledge .I feel NZO have not been entirely truthful about Ironbark and the prospects for Barque- OGOG could easily know potential buyers for a share of Barque.
Beach would be a good partner for Barque and we have the cash.
Barque if successful would produce valuable condensate with the gas re-injected and saved for later extraction when pries are likely better.Fossil fuel is finite and the population is growing.Sooner or later we will need a transition fuel from coal and oil and gas will fill the need.
.Barque is a big prospect and predicted to produce for 30 years-maybe a lot more .

[Wiremu]

personally I would be against liquidation if Ironbark fails-ogog has been around NZ for a long-time and would be in an enviable position to bid for those assets that they have inside knowledge .I feel NZO have not been entirely truthful about Ironbark and the prospects for Barque- OGOG could easily know potential buyers for a share of Barque.
Beach would be a good partner for Barque and we have the cash.
Barque if successful would produce valuable condensate with the gas re-injected and saved for later extraction when pries are likely better.Fossil fuel is finite and the population is growing.Sooner or later we will need a transition fuel from coal and oil and gas will fill the need.
.Barque is a big prospect and predicted to produce for 30 years-maybe a lot more .

Fish, experts assess that currently New Zealand has five or six years gas supply left. That makes the discovery of, and production from, new gas fields quite urgent. Part of that problem is that NZOG & Beach need to find a third JV partner, and OGOG haven't been able to assist as the majors are shrinking their geographical areas of operation away from pioneer exploration.

[fish]

Fish, experts assess that currently New Zealand has five or six years gas supply left. That makes the discovery of, and production from, new gas fields quite urgent. Part of that problem is that NZOG & Beach need to find a third JV partner, and OGOG haven't been able to assist as the majors are shrinking their geographical areas of operation away from pioneer exploration.

Thanks wiremu-it is more urgent than I had thought .
It is imperative that we get on with drilling Barque and do not let OGOG get NZO for a song.In that case I fear no gas will end up on NZ shores-at least not at a reasonable price.
I do not buy into the necessity for a 3rd partner and the majors not wanting to come here.
The joint venture has been progressing on Barque and receiving state aid .It is highly prospective and probably will be drilled

[digger]

I'd like to ask some of you more knowledgeable investers a question relating to Cue and NZO.. Some of you have been suggesting that the two companies merge. I have just recently had a dividend from TAP on the AX board. As I am not and AUS with an AUS address I lose 5800 dollars on imputation credits. So if such a merger were to take place would not all NZO holders with an address outside AUS lose all imputation credits. ??? The only way out that I can see is if NZO used up all its tax credits before such a merger. Note I have assumed here that such a merger would be Aus based as no one wants to be NZ based with the greens being the tail that wags the dog.

[fish]

Digger this is only one of many problems I can see with a merger.
The worse for me is if it becomes asx only we lose the protection that the companies act 1993 gives to minority shareholders.I have no experience of australian company law
I find it strange that OGOG have not tried to increase their shareholding to 75% to avoid some of the mines that could explode under their feet.

[Waikaka]

Thought I should follow up on Tawhaki-1 that is currently being drilled down south.

NZOG has been applying for extensions on their permit obligations based on the geological de-risking that will occur if Tawhaki-1 discovers something. This is fair enough in my opinion and the least the govt should do after doing the dirty on NZ exploration.

Tawhaki stats are:

470 km2 structural trap, with 300m thick reservoir section.
Estimated cost is a bit less than $100 million, water depth ~1300m,
Gross mean recoverable oil 1 Bbbl. They have an oil AVO response so suspect they are desperately hoping they don’t find gas. Their commercial cut off is about 250 mmbbl

Suspect we should get the results in February.

Why does Tawhaki-1 matter to NZOG. While wells in Canterbury/GSB have a pretty high success rate with decent flows (from memory 4 from 12 wells had flows to surface) the basins are relatively shallow and may lack maturity, there are some thoughts that as many of the structures are inversion and formed later than the main charge event they may have been under filled. Barque and Toroa are pretty much self sourcing from nearby but require charge at the right time. A fully charged structure at Tawhaki-1 would significantly derisk sub basins to the north and south.

I think Tawhaki-1 is a free carry for NZOG. Both permits will be in hot acerage if OMV find anything.

Now in saying that Barque is a pretty average prospect. First identified in follow up work to BP, Shell, Todd drilling of Clipper-1 in the mid 80's it is likely to have a volcanic intrusion associated with the structure and therefore significant risks of elevated Co2 and reservoir alteration. It is near or on the shelf break and 40-50km from the coast. It will need to find formidable volumes to be anywhere near commercial.

Remember the history of the prospect:

I got lost trying to work it out but in the last 35 years of us knowing Barque the following companies have looked over Canterbury and decided not to drill Barque

SBPT (mid 80's)
Pacrim (1998)
Origin (Mid 2000's)
AWE (2010's)
Anadarko (2010's)
Tap Oil (mid 2000's)
Austral Pacific (mid 2000's)
Anschutz (2000)
Maxus Energy Corp (1991)

Lots of these companies even held the acreage that Barque was under and still decided not to drill. In a success at Tawhaki-1 exploration will likely move south not north to Barque and I am pretty confident that if Tawhaki-1 fails NZOG will never farm out Toroa and Barque.

I love a good drill an thrill but my experience tells me there is no margin of safety in the often zero sum game of exploration. I have run the figures and think anything under 60c I will start buying.

Hope something there may be helpful.

[Waikaka]

Fish, experts assess that currently New Zealand has five or six years gas supply left. That makes the discovery of, and production from, new gas fields quite urgent. Part of that problem is that NZOG & Beach need to find a third JV partner, and OGOG haven't been able to assist as the majors are shrinking their geographical areas of operation away from pioneer exploration.

We have a lot more than 5-6 years gas left. That is about how much 'cheap' gas left. Methanex uses maybe 40% of all gas produced in NZ. Price increases enough and they switch off and bang now we have 15 years supply.

It is actually great news for Kupe, they have been stripping liquids which has dominated revenue. Hopefully late in field life they will get some decent money for the gas as well.

Gas prices are already increasing and the spot market is tightening. I understand Contact has struggled to get all the gas they want for TCC. Pohokura outages are spiking electricity prices. Very little flexibility on the system and it will only get worse.

[fish]

We have a lot more than 5-6 years gas left. That is about how much 'cheap' gas left. Methanex uses maybe 40% of all gas produced in NZ. Price increases enough and they switch off and bang now we have 15 years supply.

It is actually great news for Kupe, they have been stripping liquids which has dominated revenue. Hopefully late in field life they will get some decent money for the gas as well.

Gas prices are already increasing and the spot market is tightening. I understand Contact has struggled to get all the gas they want for TCC. Pohokura outages are spiking electricity prices. Very little flexibility on the system and it will only get worse.

Thanks Waikaka for the last 2 informative posts.
Its good to hear that methanex will stop using our gas if prices increase.And futures for gas are nearly doubling in the next 10 years
To stop burning coal for electricity we need to use our gas here.
Have you seen the economic study funded partly by NZ trade and Industry for Barque?

[mistaTea]

I love a good drill an thrill but my experience tells me there is no margin of safety in the often zero sum game of exploration. I have run the figures and think anything under 60c I will start buying.



Great comments Waikaka, thank you for sharing. We will all be watching with interest to see how OMV get on. If OMV don't find anything that would almost certainly be the end of the story so far as Barque and Toroa are concerned - it would be interesting to see how philosophical the curreny government is if a bunch of high potential permits are handed back!

For me your last comment is key from an investor perspective. Drilling is high risk - high reward. Though the results of drilling are largely binary - you either find commercially viable amounts of hydrocarbons or you don't - from a pure probability perspective Ironbark is unlikely to succeed. Barque is unlikely to succeed. Toroa is unlikely to succeed. Even if each of the permits had a whopping 30% chance of commercial success, that is still a 70% chance of failure for each one.

I am not really thinking too much about the GSB right now. It is all about Ironbark for me. And the average price I paid minus dividends received means that I am 'on the table' at such a low price that I almost can't lose. Ironbark is almost a freebie.

Either Ironbark will make me very rich, or not and I will leave with 90 - 95% of the capital I invested by my reckoning.

Heads I win - tails I don't lose - much!

[fish]

Great comments Waikaka, thank you for sharing. We will all be watching with interest to see how OMV get on. If OMV don't find anything that would almost certainly be the end of the story so far as Barque and Toroa are concerned - it would be interesting to see how philosophical the curreny government is if a bunch of high potential permits are handed back!

For me your last comment is key from an investor perspective. Drilling is high risk - high reward. Though the results of drilling are largely binary - you either find commercially viable amounts of hydrocarbons or you don't - from a pure probability perspective Ironbark is unlikely to succeed. Barque is unlikely to succeed. Toroa is unlikely to succeed. Even if each of the permits had a whopping 30% chance of commercial success, that is still a 70% chance of failure for each one.

I am not really thinking too much about the GSB right now. It is all about Ironbark for me. And the average price I paid minus dividends received means that I am 'on the table' at such a low price that I almost can't lose. Ironbark is almost a freebie.

Either Ironbark will make me very rich, or not and I will leave with 90 - 95% of the capital I invested by my reckoning.

Heads I win - tails I don't lose - much!

If sucessful Ironbark will be worth Trillions .A mere 50million for nzo to drill barque is peanuts in comparison .Regardless of omv success/Ironbark I feel NZ needs Barque to be drilled to give us a chance of energy independence for the rest of this century .I feel Barque will be much riskier than Ironbark with BP and Beach very optimistic and successful

[Waikaka]

Thanks Waikaka for the last 2 informative posts.
Its good to hear that methanex will stop using our gas if prices increase.And futures for gas are nearly doubling in the next 10 years
To stop burning coal for electricity we need to use our gas here.
Have you seen the economic study funded partly by NZ trade and Industry for Barque?

I am not an engineer or a economist so cant really helpfully comment on the report.

What I can say is that Maui was a bit over 4Tcf, shallower water than Barque, closer to markets, better met ocean conditions and to get that developed the govt needed to:
NGC contracted the gas with a guaranteed take or pay
MWD built the Maui pipeline
NZED built the thermal plants to help with demand (Stratford and Huntly)
Think big built Motinui (synfuels) and methanol plant at Waitara as well as ammonia/urea at Kapuni to help with demand

and the biggest of all Petrocorp stepped in for 50% of Maui.

All of that was needed to convince SBPT to even develop Maui. All developments since then have leveraged off existing infrastructure.

What I want to reiterate by talking about Maui development is that it is easy to forget the huge amount of govt help that was needed to get a isolated major gas condensate field like Maui developed.

Can you see the govt taking a similar hands-on role in the future?

If not it is likely any discovery will be stranded for the foreseeable. I suspect that is why OMV is hoping for oil, FPSO development off shore will be far cheaper, easier to FID and simpler to consent than doing a gas development.

[fish]

I am not an engineer or a economist so cant really helpfully comment on the report.

What I can say is that Maui was a bit over 4Tcf, shallower water than Barque, closer to markets, better met ocean conditions and to get that developed the govt needed to:
NGC contracted the gas with a guaranteed take or pay
MWD built the Maui pipeline
NZED built the thermal plants to help with demand (Stratford and Huntly)
Think big built Motinui (synfuels) and methanol plant at Waitara as well as ammonia/urea at Kapuni to help with demand

and the biggest of all Petrocorp stepped in for 50% of Maui.

All of that was needed to convince SBPT to even develop Maui. All developments since then have leveraged off existing infrastructure.

What I want to reiterate by talking about Maui development is that it is easy to forget the huge amount of govt help that was needed to get a isolated major gas condensate field like Maui developed.

Can you see the govt taking a similar hands-on role in the future?

If not it is likely any discovery will be stranded for the foreseeable. I suspect that is why OMV is hoping for oil, FPSO development off shore will be far cheaper, easier to FID and simpler to consent than doing a gas development.

Fully agree and with production anticipated to start 2025 there are 2 choices and pipeline would be so problematic-you also need consents and possible may get Greenpeace opposition
FPSO is the way to go.
OGOG have what it takes to do this-and it may even have been a reason for buying into NZO.
I guess as they only have a 70% shareholding they will have to put the contract to rent the FPSO out for tender unless they sometime in the next 4 years if they make another takeover offer.
If ironbark is successful they could never succeed with such an offer.
If Ironbark is unsuccessful they may have to liquidate the company and hope to buy the parts of NZO they want or make another takeover offer-but will the minority share holders sell after the last offer was not fair and reasonable and involved stating Ironbark has only a one in twenty chance of commercial success ?

[Wiremu]

Relevant to the current thread on the need for FPSOs, pipelines, and consenting is the article entitled "Why Global LNG Growth Needs Both Floating Liquefaction and Regas Platforms" in the Mitsubishi Oil & Gas website at https://oilandgas.mhi.com/ The stories section is also interesting.

And for a global overview on energy going forward: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2019

[fish]

Relevant to the current thread on the need for FPSOs, pipelines, and consenting is the article entitled "Why Global LNG Growth Needs Both Floating Liquefaction and Regas Platforms" in the Mitsubishi Oil & Gas website at https://oilandgas.mhi.com/ The stories section is also interesting.

And for a global overview on energy going forward: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2019

Informative post Wiremu.
I had never heard of Regas platforms and they clearly have a role to play in ensuring security of energy supply in the future.
We need OGOG and they need us so we have to find a way to work together

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348111

Contact secures their gas supply from OMV out to 2025.

Their statement highlights the need for NZ to discover more gas to secure a reliable and affordable energy source as cleaner alternative given the intermittent nature of hydro and wind.

[Wiremu]

Another informative and relevant artlcle - how oil & gas companies can decarbonise.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/the-future-is-now-how-oil-and-gas-companies-can-decarbonize?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-mck&hlkid=b6f33f0e0c2149c38088736211a8cdaf&hctky=1735416&hdpid=c9d88910-7022-4c8a-9ce6-67cf27b2375a

[airedale]

Perhaps someone with a legal mind can explain yesterday's decision from the NZX to grant NZO a waiver from Rule 5.2.1.

[blackcap]

Perhaps someone with a legal mind can explain yesterday's decision from the NZX to grant NZO a waiver from Rule 5.2.1.

Its set out in the annoucement:
Reasons

6. In coming to the decision to redocument the waiver set out in paragraph 1
above, NZXR has taken into consideration the following:

(a) The policy underlying Rule 5.2.1 is to ensure that Related Parties do not
exercise undue influence on an Issuer's decision to enter into a Material
Transaction, or in order to reach a favourable outcome or a transfer of value
to the Related Party in respect of a transaction;

(b) In this instance, the status of NZO and Beach as Related Parties arises
by virtue of NZO being party to unincorporated joint venture arrangements to
which Beach is also a party, or potential party. In this regard, the
exercise of the Call Option and entry into JOA II does not offend the policy
behind Rule 5.2.1;

(c) NZXR is satisfied that the relationship between NZO and Beach has not
influenced the decision to enter into the 2018 Transactions (which includes
the Call Option and JOA II) as:

(i) the involvement of an independent party who holds or will hold a
significant stake in the Ironbark permits, and who has or will have
operatorship of those permits, means there is a commercial check on any
behaviour by NZO which may offend the policy behind Rule 5.2.1;

(ii) NZO has not changed, and has no ability to change, the terms of the JOAs
to favour Beach ahead of the other joint venture participants; and

(iii) the directors of NZO, who are not also directors of Beach, have
previously certified that they believe the terms of the 2018 Transactions
represent fair value and are fair and reasonable to NZO and its shareholders;

(d) NZXR accepts that the existing relationships between NZO and Beach
(through the joint ventures) are unlikely to influence the decision of the
board of NZO to exercise the Call Option and enter into JOA II;

(e) NZXR takes comfort from the certification granted by the NZO directors
who are not also directors of Beach, dated 7 November 2018, that:

(i) they believe the terms of the 2018 Transactions were negotiated, agreed
and were to be entered into on an arm's length and commercial basis;

(ii) they believe the terms of the 2018 Transactions represented fair value
and were fair and reasonable to NZO and its shareholders; and

(iii) Beach did not influence the final decision of NZO's board to enter into
the 2018 Transactions;

(f) This provides adequate assurance and protection to shareholders of NZO;
and

(g) There is precedent for this decision.

[mistaTea]

Beach Energy HY results out: https://www.beachenergy.com.au/asx/

Looks like they are anticipating Ironbark drilling to begin in December 2020 now.
Ironbark – Carnarvon Basin (Beach 21% interest)
• Preparations for drilling continuing with operator, BP
• Ocean Apex rig contracted and long lead items ordered
• Drilling scheduled to commence in December 2020 quarter
• Ironbark is a large gas prospect within tie-back distance to NWS project. Targeting deeper Mungaroo reservoirs; the primary reservoirs at Gorgon
• Beach share of drilling cost ~$35 million

They have an infographic which seems to show Ironbark drilling beginning at some point in December and going through to March/April.

Damn, I was hoping they would start in September so that Santa might bring us an extra special Xmas pressie!

[airedale]

Thanks Blackcap.

[fish]

Beach Energy HY results out: https://www.beachenergy.com.au/asx/

Looks like they are anticipating Ironbark drilling to begin in December 2020 now.
Ironbark – Carnarvon Basin (Beach 21% interest)
• Preparations for drilling continuing with operator, BP
• Ocean Apex rig contracted and long lead items ordered
• Drilling scheduled to commence in December 2020 quarter
• Ironbark is a large gas prospect within tie-back distance to NWS project. Targeting deeper Mungaroo reservoirs; the primary reservoirs at Gorgon
• Beach share of drilling cost ~$35 million

They have an infographic which seems to show Ironbark drilling beginning at some point in December and going through to March/April.

Damn, I was hoping they would start in September so that Santa might bring us an extra special Xmas pressie!

Still might be an Xmas pressie.Price normally rises when drilling starts.
I am pretty sure Andrew Jefferies said at the AGM that success at Ironbark was so big that it was worth drilling if there was only a 3% chance success.
With beach suggesting 33% and Cue 25% and srk suggesting a preferred value around 100 times that of Northington( a paltry 5% if anyone could possibly believe-and their maths is faulty as using their invalid formula it is over 7%) the sp could rise significantly.
Did anyone else hear that giveaway clue to the undervaluation of Ironbark by Andrew ?

[Wiremu]

Still might be an Xmas pressie.Price normally rises when drilling starts.
I am pretty sure Andrew Jefferies said at the AGM that success at Ironbark was so big that it was worth drilling if there was only a 3% chance success.
With beach suggesting 33% and Cue 25% and srk suggesting a preferred value around 100 times that of Northington( a paltry 5% if anyone could possibly believe-and their maths is faulty as using their invalid formula it is over 7%) the sp could rise significantly.
Did anyone else hear that giveaway clue to the undervaluation of Ironbark by Andrew ?

Fish, unfortunately "Ironbark drilling commencing in the December 2020 quarter" means any time before the end of February 2021.

[Waikaka]

Fish, unfortunately "Ironbark drilling commencing in the December 2020 quarter" means any time before the end of February 2021.

You never know with drilling schedules but the Diamond offshore Feb 10 fleet status indicates that the Ocean Apex is with Woodside Jan - Oct 2020 and then it goes to BP Oct 2020 to Jan 2021 .

http://www.diamondoffshore.com/Documents/Rig%20Report/DOFleetStatus.pdf

Just about always delays but I would guess front end of the quarter.

[Waikaka]

and a submission to NOPSEMA on 10 Dec 2019, BP say:

"Drilling activities are planned to commence in Q3 of 2020, although depending on MODU availability, may commence between Q2 of 2020 and Q2 2021. Drilling activities are expected to take approximately 90-100 days (excluding weather and operational delays)."

https://info.nopsema.gov.au/environment_plans/482/show_public

Definitely covering all the bases with the regulator there.

[mistaTea]

May well see some 'price action' towards the end of the year as drilling becomes imminent.

Largely meaningless to me as I am only interested in the drillin results.

Although, if the SP were to increase meaningfully from where it is now I suppose it does provide the opportunity to liquidate a small % of my shares, further reducing my already small downside should Ironbark fail.

[fish]

May well see some 'price action' towards the end of the year as drilling becomes imminent.

Largely meaningless to me as I am only interested in the drillin results.

Although, if the SP were to increase meaningfully from where it is now I suppose it does provide the opportunity to liquidate a small % of my shares, further reducing my already small downside should Ironbark fail.

It is my feeling that the market has not factored in the value of Ironbark due to misleading information by NZO published for the takeover by OGOG.Imminent drilling may attract investors to research Ironbark for its true or preferred value which pre-drill is around $350 million(?around 50 nz cents per share) according to SRK.

[fish]

If the Tawhaki-1, shortly to be spudded-in, drill off the Otago Coast becomes a discovery it will turn the area from a frontier region to highly prospective. I expect this would cast a positive glow towards NZO's Barque prospect.

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/oil-rig-nearing-drilling-site-south-island-coast

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Just wondered if any news about this drill ?
OGOG were quite excited about Barque when they bought a majority shareholding in NZO
There again so much has changed since then-not least the Northington valuation at that time-as far as ZETA offer went-
NZOG independent directors recommended shareholders reject the offer after an independent valuation by Northington Partners valued the company at 78 cents-to-93 cents a share.
I wonder why it has all changed?
Are the Independent directors really independent or is OGOG pulling the strings?

[Marilyn Munroe]

Just wondered if any news about this drill ?


The website marinetraffic.com shows the COSLPROSPECTOR still on site at Tahwkai due east of Foveaux Strait.

Could some courageous Sharetrader row out to the rig with a satellite phone and let us know if they are flaring off gas.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[mistaTea]

So that’s a NO for Tawhaki...

[Marilyn Munroe]

So that’s a NO for Tawhaki...

No hydrocarbon shows, pluged and abandoned.

https://www.beachenergy.com.au/asx/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[mistaTea]

No hydrocarbon shows, pluged and abandoned.

https://www.beachenergy.com.au/asx/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

The probability of getting farm in partners for Barque must be about zilch now?

According to energy analyst John Kidd future exploration of the GSB hinged on Tawhaki being successful?

[fish]

The probability of getting farm in partners for Barque must be about zilch now?

According to energy analyst John Kidd future exploration of the GSB hinged on Tawhaki being successful?

Barque is in the Canterbury basin not GSB.
Maybe I have got it wrong but personally I cannot see how it alters the chance of success for Barque.
OGOG when they bought into NZO said words to the effect of Barque is too exciting to ignore

[Waikaka]

Canterbury Basin and GSB are close cousins. Both formed around the same time as failed rift systems.

For all intents they are the same petroleum system, reservoirs and source rocks are basically the same just with slightly different tectonic timing. Some sub-basins in the GSB are significantly deeper and presumable more mature which in fact makes it even worse for Barque.

NZOG Toroa permit is unfortunately downgraded to moose pasture and Barque is dead in the water.

It was worth getting work programme deadline extensions to keep in the area, especially while some one else is going to drill but with the result of Tawahaki-1 drilling NZOG should just relinquish them all before they waste more money.

[mistaTea]

Canterbury Basin and GSB are close cousins. Both formed around the same time as failed rift systems.

For all intents they are the same petroleum system, reservoirs and source rocks are basically the same just with slightly different tectonic timing. Some sub-basins in the GSB are significantly deeper and presumable more mature which in fact makes it even worse for Barque.

NZOG Toroa permit is unfortunately downgraded to moose pasture and Barque is dead in the water.

It was worth getting work programme deadline extensions to keep in the area, especially while some one else is going to drill but with the result of Tawahaki-1 drilling NZOG should just relinquish them all before they waste more money.

Yeah it is also my understanding that the two areas are geologically connected. Barque was always going to take a fair amount of convincing to get partners to farm in.

Then the government banned future offshore exploration and that was probably a mortal blow for the permit. Will have to wait and see what OMV do next, but with Tawhaki not resulting in a discovery - I reckon that is the final nail in the coffin for Barque.

For some time now Barque has been in the back of my mind - since the likelihood of it ever actually been drilled is really low. Which is why when I was working out what I would consider a 'fair price' for the SoA - I ascribed $0 for Barque.

The only thing interesting about NZOG is unchanged by the Tawhaki result - Ironbark. If it comes through then that will be absolutely fantastic. And look forward to the opportunity to participate in a world class drill.

If Ironbark does not come through then NZOG really has nothing going for it. It isn't even domiciled in a country that is friendly to O&G explorers! So the company's viability as a listed company moving forward in that scenario is doubtful in my view.

[fish]

Canterbury Basin and GSB are close cousins. Both formed around the same time as failed rift systems.

For all intents they are the same petroleum system, reservoirs and source rocks are basically the same just with slightly different tectonic timing. Some sub-basins in the GSB are significantly deeper and presumable more mature which in fact makes it even worse for Barque.

NZOG Toroa permit is unfortunately downgraded to moose pasture and Barque is dead in the water.

It was worth getting work programme deadline extensions to keep in the area, especially while some one else is going to drill but with the result of Tawahaki-1 drilling NZOG should just relinquish them all before they waste more money.

We are all going to have different opinions about this and I respect yours.
From my point of view-and I do take advice and listen to all.My unbiased expert(overseas) has been further researching both Ironbark and Barque and will now take this into account.
Barque is similar geology to Taranaki.It may represent a massive wet gas reservoir.We know it has a kitchen-2 out of 6 adjacent drills found hydrocarbons.The question really is if the hydrocarbons have been trapped.It has multiple targets.Only a drill will find out so for the future of NZ I want it drilled-and I do not care about the risk-it is so big that its probably worth drllling if it only has a 5%chance success.Remember Andrew Jefferies at the AGM said Ironbark was worth drilling if only a 3% chance success.
Gas is the transition fuel away from coal.Nz has to stop burning coal and change to cleaner fuel.

[Sideshow Bob]

ODT article

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/omv-comes-out-great-south-basin-empty-handed

[fish]

ODT article

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/omv-comes-out-great-south-basin-empty-handed

Thanks for that link-its good journalism-brief and covers 2 opposing views.
The mislead Greenies saying its good news as we do not need more fossil fuel .Hypocrites that do not know the difference between coal and gas.
Andrew whiley who says they will be back-its just a matter of drilling the right hole in the right place at the right time.
NZO are lucky having OGOG leading them with the capability to do this

[blackcap]

And all the while Japan is expanding its coal operated generators to create more energy in the wake of Fukushima. Demand for coal and oil (globally) will continue unabated in the coming 30 years.

[mistaTea]

Cue update on Mahato: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200225/pdf/44ff76pkyrbkt5.pdf

I just want to know what the hell is going on here.

Clearly a discovery has been made - but what has happened that Texcal think they can just cut their JV partner out? They must have some reasoning but Christ only knows what it is.

Anyone have any other sources of info on this or good old scuttlebutt?

[JBmurc]

Cue update on Mahato: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200225/pdf/44ff76pkyrbkt5.pdf

I just want to know what the hell is going on here.

Clearly a discovery has been made - but what has happened that Texcal think they can just cut their JV partner out? They must have some reasoning but Christ only knows what it is.

Anyone have any other sources of info on this or good old scuttlebutt?


Surely its pretty straight forward like the ann. below back in DEC....


Melbourne, Australia 17 December 2019: Cue Energy Resources Limited (CUE or Company) advises that the claimed cash call from the Operator of the Mahato PSC, Texcal Mahato EP Ltd, which was the subject of the disputed default notice referred to in the ASX announcement of 10th Dec 2019, has been paid by Cue. Cue is not receiving information from the Operator as required under the Joint Operating Agreement and is evaluating all available options to address this and other breaches under this agreement.

-Even though CUE disputed the extra cash call from 'Texcal" they still paid the bribe !! (or didn't they ???)

why ask for extra funds then once received still not uphold the J/V ? ... and now state the J/V is void ... what utter BS!!! scumbag sand jockeys

[fish]

Surely its pretty straight forward like the ann. below back in DEC....


Melbourne, Australia 17 December 2019: Cue Energy Resources Limited (CUE or Company) advises that the claimed cash call from the Operator of the Mahato PSC, Texcal Mahato EP Ltd, which was the subject of the disputed default notice referred to in the ASX announcement of 10th Dec 2019, has been paid by Cue. Cue is not receiving information from the Operator as required under the Joint Operating Agreement and is evaluating all available options to address this and other breaches under this agreement.

-Even though CUE disputed the extra cash call from 'Texcal" they still paid the bribe !! (or didn't they ???)

why ask for extra funds then once received still not uphold the J/V ? ... and now state the J/V is void ... what utter BS!!! scumbag sand jockeys

From what I can tell its just a spat.Little more than can be expected doing business in Indonesia.There are always 2 sides to a story and clearly Cue are not going to tell us how this has come about.Look at the directors on Cue.Look at how they have behaved with NZO and the scheme of arrangement.Its too early to make judgments until we hear the truth as seen by both sides

[mistaTea]

From what I can tell its just a spat.Little more than can be expected doing business in Indonesia.There are always 2 sides to a story and clearly Cue are not going to tell us how this has come about.Look at the directors on Cue.Look at how they have behaved with NZO and the scheme of arrangement.Its too early to make judgments until we hear the truth as seen by both sides

It's true that no matter how flat you make a pancake - it always has two sides!

Let's just hope Cue haven't screwed the pooch on this one and that whatever the issue is can be resolved.

Even if Cue were in the wrong, they have since paid up the money Texcal said was owed. Seems incredible that Texcal now seem to be progressing as if Cue was never a JV partner. The fact that there has been a discovery makes me suspicious too. If the same thing happened, but the hole was dry, I am 100% sure Texcal would still treat Cue as a JV partner after the disputed funds were paid! To help with the plugging and abandonment costs!

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/proposed-divestment-bill-would-grow-nz-s-carbon-footprint-says-nzog

Latest members bill submitted by Green's Chloe Schwarbrick would force all public funds to divest from companies directly involved in the mining and production of oil & gas.

If it gets through, that would mean our largest minority holder (who played a key role ib stopping the SoA) will be forced to dump their shares.

ACC would have to forgo the potentially large Ironbark upside, and what will the policy achieve in terms of emission reductions? Either nothing or an increase in emissions from a reduction in gas supply.

Can we have the election already? These current lot have got to go.

[Snoopy]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/proposed-divestment-bill-would-grow-nz-s-carbon-footprint-says-nzog

Latest members bill submitted by Green's Chloe Schwarbrick would force all public funds to divest from companies directly involved in the mining and production of oil & gas.

If it gets through, that would mean our largest minority holder (who played a key role ib stopping the SoA) will be forced to dump their shares.

ACC would have to forgo the potentially large Ironbark upside, and what will the policy achieve in terms of emission reductions? Either nothing or an increase in emissions from a reduction in gas supply.

Can we have the election already? These current lot have got to go.


You do know there is a difference between a 'members bill' and a 'government bill' don't you? First the members bill has to be drawn from the ballot (no guarantee of that happening). Then it has to be passed by parliament (no guarantee of that happening).

SNOOPY

[mistaTea]

You do know there is a difference between a 'members bill' and a 'government bill' don't you? First the members bill has to be drawn from the ballot (no guarantee of that happening). Then it has to be passed by parliament (no guarantee of that happening).

SNOOPY

The likelihood of it ever becoming law is not the issue. The issue is that there is this constant push since the last election to make it harder and harder for the O&G industry.

It is already an unfavourable environment after the offshore ban of future permits. Just by submitting a members bill with the latest crazy idea (whether it ever becomes law or not) adds to the whole notion that NZ is closed for business to would-be explorers.

[fish]

The likelihood of it ever becoming law is not the issue. The issue is that there is this constant push since the last election to make it harder and harder for the O&G industry.

It is already an unfavourable environment after the offshore ban of future permits. Just by submitting a members bill with the latest crazy idea (whether it ever becomes law or not) adds to the whole notion that NZ is closed for business to would-be explorers.

Such a crazy idea that if it was passed would result in us importing more dirty coal.
It will not happen but if it did nzo shares would drop as ACC forced to sell then we could acquire heaps more before Ironbark drill.
Personally I see it as just a bit of bad noise that most will not hear.
Jacindas ineptitude in her response to coranovirus should see this government gone.

[Fabs37]

Jacintas ineptitude in her response to coronovirus should see this government gone.[/QUOTE]

Joseph Stalin — ‘Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.’

Looking at the way things pan out around the world.
Nations seem to not end up with what its people or their Countries really need.

[fish]

Jacintas ineptitude in her response to coronovirus should see this government gone.

Joseph Stalin — ‘Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.’

Looking at the way things pan out around the world.
Nations seem to not end up with what its people or their Countries really need.[/QUOTE]

I have never studied Stalin-I squirm at the sound of his name like I do with Hitler,Putin.Trump etc.
They had/ have in common ways of miscounting and influencing the vote.
Jacinda I like as a person but I do not trust her much delayed decisions as she consults her biased advisors

[peat]

so is this company still cashed up?
NTA is 84c if its still largely cash this does seem like an opportunity to purchase 84c for 50c

[blackcap]

so is this company still cashed up NTA 84c if its still largely cash this does seem like an opportunity

ssshhhh, hoping others will sell down (falling tides lower all ships) to pick up some more cheap cash.

[Grimy]

Getting that cheap cash is the trick though.....

[fish]

Getting that cheap cash is the trick though.....

They have said they would not make another takeover offer.However times have changed and it would pay OGOG to revisit the advantages of the idea and the chances of a successful takeover
If they made another takeover offer say at 62 to 72 cents plus pro-rata cue shares(approx 2 shares) and do not try a scheme of arrangement they could easily make a successful takeover and gain access to all that cash(around $100m) with the takeover only costing about 40 million.

[peat]

Getting that cheap cash is the trick though.....

yeh I have tried this before and got out with a very modest profit...

[Fabs37]

yeh I have tried this before and got out with a very modest profit...

Might pay to wait till they drop furthe?.

Also wonder whether the management still have any plans, as stated over the nearly last 12 years to take advantage of investment opportunities?

Mitsubishi Finance & UBS Finance having become substantial holders in SENEX Ltd. a very promising explorer, in the last few days.

Or does this lot at NZO know they got MORE time on their hands??

[mistaTea]

I see Andrew Jeffries and co are snapping up their options this time round.

Clearly very bullish on Ironbark and the wider future prospects.

[blackcap]

I see Andrew Jeffries and co are snapping up their options this time round.

Clearly very bullish on Ironbark and the wider future prospects.

I even forgot that NZO has a lot of $US denominated cash so that will be worth a hellova lot more now too. These prices have to be a steal. Seems the price of natural gas is not being affected by crude. NZO would still be (even with their exorbitant overhead) in a profit and cash flow positive situation.

[mistaTea]

I think I mesread the first announcement...Just looked more closely:

"The Options have been issued to the Senior Manager subject to the Scheme Rules. Each Option is an option to acquire one fully paid ordinary share. Option holders will be able to exercise the Options in the period from 30 June 2022 until 30 June 2025. The exercise price for the Options is $0.61 per Option. Shares issued on the exercise of Options will be issued on the same terms and will rank equally in all respects with ordinary shares currently on issue"

So if Ironbark is successful, the the SP lifts dramatically then they can exercise their Options between 30 June 2022 and 30 June 2025 and make a bunch of money.

[Fabs37]

WELL!!

1/ How much will the present shuthdown worldwide possibly delay drilling???
2/Not realy interested in the Paper gains/losses made on the Forign Exchange Jo-Jo.
3/ Yes nice bonus-- IF --??
4/ For that hard working Super mangement team, when 100s of CEO worldwid resign for non performance or getting the booth.
While Millions of $s are sitting around for years providing a lucratieve living, For Doing What?? [ Proverbial Shangarila ]
5/ How about doleing out some to the S/Hs
It,s quite a while since they returned drips and drabs of the underused money S/Hs have put in at the last cash rising years ago.
6/ NZO must just about have the record for longest priod sitting on those MILLIONS for nzx co,s They got that one in the Bag by NOW,
7/ ACTION OVERDUE.
:confused:

[Sideshow Bob]

Quesntion.....is their cash in USD's? Then this in itself is now worth quite a few more NZ peso's!

[Sideshow Bob]

Quesntion.....is their cash in USD's? Then this in itself is now worth quite a few more NZ peso's!

Just answering my own question. 2019 Annual Report, $45.6m USD, equating to $68m kiwi. Todays spot, that is $80m.

[peat]

and do they have any derivatives that would affect this?

[blackcap]

and do they have any derivatives that would affect this?

From memory negligible as their annual has a profit or loss figure relating to currency conversion. But I am only going off what I think.

[SailorRob]

What am I missing...

Not familiar with this company but at a quick glance here is what I see;

I see a company trading at a market cap significantly less than the value of its CASH minus all liabilities, so the first thing I think is this company must burn cash and the cash sitting there is from an equity raising waiting to be burned.

However this does not seem to be the case, this company has generated 486 million from operations over the last ten years and spent 261 in total investments some of which will exist now as assets to the company. It has had a net debt increase of 46 million over that ten year period. This is not only a company that can support itself - it looks like a cash generating machine.

On top of this it has returned 281 million to shareholders over ten years through buy backs and dividends.

I understand the minority shareholding and the rejection of the buy out offer, is there any way the majority shareholder could fleece the rest of the cash, maybe by spending it on something that benefits them over us? What else could go wrong here?

Cheers

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

SailorRob - all I'd say is that right now there is sufficient uncertainty in terms of when the economy (and the use of fossil-fuel reliant technologies) will emerge from Covid-19 for the shareprice to remain subject to downward pressure.

[blackcap]

SailorRob - all I'd say is that right now there is sufficient uncertainty in terms of when the economy (and the use of fossil-fuel reliant technologies) will emerge from Covid-19 for the shareprice to remain subject to downward pressure.

Its like having the chance to pay $80 for a $100 bill at present that does not happen very often. Effectively that is what the NZO share price is saying right now. The fact that Oil is below $20 a barrel, and NZO pretty much is a cash holding should be great for NZO. Means they will be able to purchase a distressed asset at super low prices. I hope the board are looking at opportunities in the next year should they arise.

[SailorRob]

Its like having the chance to pay $80 for a $100 bill at present that does not happen very often. Effectively that is what the NZO share price is saying right now. The fact that Oil is below $20 a barrel, and NZO pretty much is a cash holding should be great for NZO. Means they will be able to purchase a distressed asset at super low prices. I hope the board are looking at opportunities in the next year should they arise.


Agreed Blackcap, just worried about the $100 bill getting given to the majority shareholders somehow over the minority, any ideas of the risk there? Like could they buy an asset they own through another company at an inflated price or something?

[Waikaka]

Hate to say it but NZOG is probably at a discount to cash because of their long inability to find any oil. Pretty key part of exploration.

Last successful NZ wells that they where involved with was Tui-1 in ~2003. So in 17 years and a huge amount of effort, many exploration permits, farm-ins and farm-outs they have had an exploration success case of....... 0% since then.

The main reason they trade at a discount is they will continue to spend the cash on dry holes. Only worth investing if they see the writing on the wall and wind up the business and give back all the cash. With their snouts in the trough unlikely to see them make them selves redundant if they can help it. Always be some new prospect to roll the dice on.

I have excluded ventures overseas as they have never returned any meaningful cash flow.

Have to admire their tenacity though. Great battlers.

[SailorRob]

Hate to say it but NZOG is probably at a discount to cash because of their long inability to find any oil. Pretty key part of exploration.

Last successful NZ wells that they where involved with was Tui-1 in ~2003. So in 17 years and a huge amount of effort, many exploration permits, farm-ins and farm-outs they have had an exploration success case of....... 0% since then.

The main reason they trade at a discount is they will continue to spend the cash on dry holes. Only worth investing if they see the writing on the wall and wind up the business and give back all the cash. With their snouts in the trough unlikely to see them make them selves redundant if they can help it. Always be some new prospect to roll the dice on.

I have excluded ventures overseas as they have never returned any meaningful cash flow.

Have to admire their tenacity though. Great battlers.


Yeah that was my fear but looking at the numbers they have only generated cash over the last ten years, the only cash they have spent is what has been generated from operations and they have paid out a hell of a lot of that too.

It hasn't come from shareholders or debt holders, so as long as they continue to fund whatever the are doing with cash generated from the business then the cash should be safe?

[airedale]

So Iron Bark is the next {and could be} the last roll of the dice.

[Waikaka]

Yeah that was my fear but looking at the numbers they have only generated cash over the last ten years, the only cash they have spent is what has been generated from operations and they have paid out a hell of a lot of that too.

It hasn't come from shareholders or debt holders, so as long as they continue to fund whatever the are doing with cash generated from the business then the cash should be safe?

That is true in a normal business. Unfortunately in E&P you are producing out finite reserves. As reserves drop cash-flow drop. Hence having to find or buy new reserves and then at the end you normally have to pay for abandonment and rehabilitation. Yes Tui produced lots of cash, some was returned to shareholder but lots has been wasted and now they have no Tui.

Perhaps Kupe which has a long life ahead and should put out cash will be used more effectively. Fingers crossed.

Bit annoying too that NZOG did the bait and switch and paid a shady outfit like Tamarind to take Tui field abandonment obligations. If NZOG had taken responsibility for their mess as 'socially responsible' company then they would have properly abandoned Tui rather than leaving it to the tax payers.

Tui abandoment is like ~$200 million? Perhaps the companies that profited should have also done the right thing and paid for the clean up. Avoiding this has 'artificially' made Tui more 'profitable'.

[fish]

Still lots options-their cash will go a lot further.
NZO is not the same company now OGOG have majority shareholding.
Brings international expertise and a change in direction-now direted to the cleanest fossil fuel-natural gas
We can only go one step at a time.
Holders of NZO shares like the prospects(Ironbark and Barque)
Buyers of NZO at current prices get in effect a free shot at Ironbark and cash.

[Fabs37]

Sailor Rob;

Means they will be able to purchase a distressed asset at super low prices. I hope the board is looking at opportunities in the next year should they arise.

Yes, my Sentiments for the last 18 months plus.

The extended Ofer Business Empire Worldwide big and complex enough to engineer a T/O never better than now.
This present period will find their real intentions out what they plan for NZO,s Future.

[mistaTea]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/413037/oil-and-gas-ban-lacked-consultation-report

That 15 - 38 Billion dollars worth could come in bloody handy over the next few decades now!

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/413037/oil-and-gas-ban-lacked-consultation-report

That 15 - 38 Billion dollars worth could come in bloody handy over the next few decades now!

First sentence says it all....


A new report has found that a two-year-old a ban (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/375417/parliament-passes-bill-banning-new-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration)
by the government on new oil and gas exploration would be costly, would do little for the environment and was done without proper consultation.

[mistaTea]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2004/S00095/omv-exit-signals-end-of-offshore-oil-exploration-in-nz.htm

[digger]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2004/S00095/omv-exit-signals-end-of-offshore-oil-exploration-in-nz.htm

Didn't I read somewhere that Norway under the pressure from the greenies totally banned caged hens. In a short time Norway found that free range hens lay less eggs and are much more expensive. The final result is that Norway now import imports eggs from France's cage birds.
So great success greenies,you have saved the day stopping all drilling in NZ. Now we will be all poorer buying our fuel from other countries. Great.
But wait there is more. Did not our very own PM go to Taranaki and say oil was done and all the staff could change jobs being empolyed in the tourist industry. Another winner. Bet she got sucked into saying that to passify the greeneis. Another great move

[Wiremu]

OMV discovery at Toutouwai? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324473

[mistaTea]

OMV discovery at Toutouwai? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324473

Interesting.

Though that doesn’t really help us for Clipper given the general negative sentiment towards NZ now coupled with the current economic catastrophe. Nobody will want to spend any money in NZ now.

Maybe if OGOG are successful in their drill Clipper could still have a chance.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Didn't I read somewhere that Norway under the pressure from the greenies totally banned caged hens. In a short time Norway found that free range hens lay less eggs and are much more expensive. The final result is that Norway now import imports eggs from France's cage birds.
So great success greenies,you have saved the day stopping all drilling in NZ. Now we will be all poorer buying our fuel from other countries. Great.
But wait there is more. Did not our very own PM go to Taranaki and say oil was done and all the staff could change jobs being empolyed in the tourist industry. Another winner. Bet she got sucked into saying that to passify the greeneis. Another great move

The issue IMHO isn't with stopping the exploration and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels; the issue is with not sufficiently responding with investment in other forms of renewable energy supply. That's where the new jobs (and capital/dividend earning potential) are, rather than tourism.

[kiora]

NZOG not in this one but good news
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00233/omv-announces-positive-results-in-toutouwai-exploration-well.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+1 5+April+2020
PEP 60093 Toutouwai (OMV Operator 57.14%, MEPAU 42.86%) covers an area of 2,136 km2
. The permit was awarded jointly to OMV &
MEPAU in the 2015 block offer. The permit lies immediately to the north of the Tui & Maui fields and has a number of closures directly on trend
from these oil and gas accumulations.

[mistaTea]

NZOG not in this one but good news
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00233/omv-announces-positive-results-in-toutouwai-exploration-well.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+1 5+April+2020
PEP 60093 Toutouwai (OMV Operator 57.14%, MEPAU 42.86%) covers an area of 2,136 km2
. The permit was awarded jointly to OMV &
MEPAU in the 2015 block offer. The permit lies immediately to the north of the Tui & Maui fields and has a number of closures directly on trend
from these oil and gas accumulations.

Much-needed good news for NZ from an energy security perspective.

Not of any help to NZOG of course. Clipper looking less and less likely as time goes on. Perhaps if OGOG/Beach make a discovery in Wherry that might give some hope, but Clipper is so far in the back of my mind right now sometimes I almost forget we even have the permit still!

Ironbark still scheduled to drill December 2020 or early 2021. Haven't seen or read anything that makes me think that will change due to Covid. Australia seem to have struck a better balance in terms of looking after population health while causing as little damage to the economy as possible.

Aussie will want the drill to happen on schedule now more than ever. A discovery and the taxes and royalties owed will be hugely beneficial in their recovery.

Pity our lot don't share the same view.

And with Jacinda doing what she does best - crisis management - the prospect of National getting in this year has dropped (and therefore the offshore exploration ban will stay in place).

Labour can't run the country for sh1t, but you have to give credit where credit is due. Jacinda comes into her own during times like this. I mean, could you even imagine 'Soimon' fronting up and handling this crisis? Or that thing Paula Bennett?

Not I.

[Wiremu]

NZOG not in this one but good news
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00233/omv-announces-positive-results-in-toutouwai-exploration-well.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+1 5+April+2020
PEP 60093 Toutouwai (OMV Operator 57.14%, MEPAU 42.86%) covers an area of 2,136 km2
. The permit was awarded jointly to OMV &
MEPAU in the 2015 block offer. The permit lies immediately to the north of the Tui & Maui fields and has a number of closures directly on trend
from these oil and gas accumulations.

This well is in what was the Takapou permit which was relinquished by NZOG in 2014 as Oi had been unsuccessful, and with 50% equity and being unable to find an additional partner it didn’t “fit the balance of risk and reward” required.

[digger]

This well is in what was the Takapou permit which was relinquished by NZOG in 2014 as Oi had been unsuccessful, and with 50% equity and being unable to find an additional partner it didn’t “fit the balance of risk and reward” required.

I remember some years ago when Brian Roulston and I were talking with Andrew knight [[the CEO at the time] about letting go of the Cosmos well in Tunisia he also gave us an update about the oil prospects near Oi.. This was before Oi was drilled.. At the time AK said the search for the kitchen for the source of the oil supplying Tui was in the opinion of some that it could be north to north west of TUI. In fact he also said it was once oi was drilled the only area left.
Just interesting.. The same old still applies ----oil is where you find it.

[Waikaka]

A lot of these permits have been held by many companies over the years. No reflection on past permit holders I reckon.

OMV ponied up big money on a campaign and hopefully gets rewarded.

Suspect if it is decent discovery we should see some follow up in the next year or 2 in spite of the current low prices.

OMV had to cancel Maui-8. Couldn't get equipment and staff from overseas. Suspect the same situation might happen in Aussie although they have a lot more oily people that can do that specialised work.

Hopefully NZO management is talking to OMV. Great time to have cash to contribute to a development.

[arjay]

Didn't I read somewhere that Norway under the pressure from the greenies totally banned caged hens. In a short time Norway found that free range hens lay less eggs and are much more expensive. The final result is that Norway now import imports eggs from France's cage birds.
So great success greenies,you have saved the day stopping all drilling in NZ. Now we will be all poorer buying our fuel from other countries. Great.
But wait there is more. Did not our very own PM go to Taranaki and say oil was done and all the staff could change jobs being empolyed in the tourist industry. Another winner. Bet she got sucked into saying that to passify the greeneis. Another great move

I agree with Independent Observer on this one. I think most of us can agree that for a range of reasons we have to move away from fossil fuels. However, the key is to reduce demand for the products. What the current govt have done is to reduce potential supply without providing sustainable alternatives, and that might come back to bite them. As for hens, isn’t it good not to be one?

[mistaTea]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200421/pdf/44h3zrczcl806w.pdf

Discovery has been confirmed.

Texcal still trying to cut Cue out of the picture. Cue still disputing their ability to do so.

This should be a good news story, but instead it still smells like sh1t.

[blackcap]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200421/pdf/44h3zrczcl806w.pdf

Discovery has been confirmed.

Texcal still trying to cut Cue out of the picture. Cue still disputing their ability to do so.

This should be a good news story, but instead it still smells like sh1t.

It should be a good news story, yet the lack of transparency is worrying. Ironically the discovery comes at a time when oil is not worth very much.

[Waikaka]

Mahato PSC

or production sharing contract.

Terrible deal for an oil company. Hugely complicates booking reserves because the permit is just a contract to extract oil. You never own land or facilities, they remain owned by the state


Not just that but plenty of obligations that make developments inefficient


-A domestic market obligation of 25%.
-lots of minister approval
-Utilisation of local workers/employees, goods and services.
-Data obtained from oil and gas activities to be owned by the State.
-Indonesian participant, firm commitment, unitisation, relinquishments, etc shall be carried out in accordance with prevailing laws and regulations.

Pertamenia is getting more and more permits. Exxon, CNOOC and Chevron are the only big guys left. Good luck getting a good deal out of the Indonesian nationalists.

[Fabs37]

could you even imagine 'Soimon' fronting up and handling this crisis? Or that thing Paula Bennett?

Not I.
Misty tea

While this Forum is not particularly about Politicians/Partys doings.
At least do just a bit of easy researchable Statistical facts, to compare what this is all about [ no conspiracy here ]

Is Amnesia a Symptom of Covid-19? - Gilad Atzmon

I would think that the above named would have acted more or less the same.
Perhaps less Hysterical than Cinta, but following the same script.
Hope this helps.
Cheers

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

could you even imagine 'Soimon' fronting up and handling this crisis? Or that thing Paula Bennett?

Not I.
Misty tea

While this Forum is not particularly about Politicians/Partys doings.
At least do just a bit of easy researchable Statistical facts, to compare what this is all about [ no conspiracy here ]

Is Amnesia a Symptom of Covid-19? - Gilad Atzmon

I would think that the above named would have acted more or less the same.
Perhaps less Hysterical than Cinta, but following the same script.
Hope this helps.
Cheers

What the F are you talking about? There is a clear difference between the two leaders - just look at the recent social media posts from both to see the difference. Whether you agree with one side or the otherm the differences are as stark as night and day. Not sure what conspiracy you are saying is or isn't here regarding statistical facts... but you're not pointing anyone to such facts so I'm sorry buy you're going to end up on my 'ignore' list.


I agree with Independent Observer on this one. I think most of us can agree that for a range of reasons we have to move away from fossil fuels. However, the key is to reduce demand for the products. What the current govt have done is to reduce potential supply without providing sustainable alternatives, and that might come back to bite them. As for hens, isn’t it good not to be one?

Thanks for the support :)

[mistaTea]

What the Hell is going on here then?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-diamondoffshore-bankruptcy-lawsuit/diamond-offshore-sues-australias-beach-energy-for-terminating-drilling-contract-idUSKCN2292NW

This does not bode well for Ironbark given a diamond are suing Beach for some other drills?

Either the Americans are dodgy as hell right now and have caused the recent issues for Cue and now Beach.

Or these stuffing Aussies need a kick right up the bloody ass.

Appreciate this is a different rig to our one (Beach were contracted to use Onyx, whereas we have a contract with Apex).

But it still does not bode well for our JV if Diamond are currently suing one of our partners. And Beach's cancellation has forced Diamond to file for bankruptcy?

[Wiremu]

What the Hell is going on here then?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-diamondoffshore-bankruptcy-lawsuit/diamond-offshore-sues-australias-beach-energy-for-terminating-drilling-contract-idUSKCN2292NW

This does not bode well for Ironbark given a diamond are suing Beach for some other drills?

Either the Americans are dodgy as hell right now and have caused the recent issues for Cue and now Beach.

Or these stuffing Aussies need a kick right up the bloody ass.

Appreciate this is a different rig to our one (Beach were contracted to use Onyx, whereas we have a contract with Apex).

But it still does not bode well for our JV if Diamond are currently suing one of our partners. And Beach's cancellation has forced Diamond to file for bankruptcy?

A quick look at http://investor.diamondoffshore.com/static-files/bc6569a1-89b5-43e2-b9df-7ac1510f6c78 shows Diamond Offshore made an operating loss of US$180.2m in FY2018, and a further operating loss of US$357.2m in FY2019. So red ink around long before Beach's cancellation had any impact.

Also: https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/oil-driller-diamond-offshore-files-for-bankruptcy-protection/ar-BB13h187

[Waikaka]

I heard the rig was 2 days late so Beach used it as a nonsense excuse to cancel the 6 well program. Real disgrace after Diamond would have spent millions in mob to get it to aussie.

Suspect Noble and Valaris (Ensco/Rowan) are also teetering with going Chapter 11.

Such terrible times out there lots of good staff being let go.

[mistaTea]

A quick look at http://investor.diamondoffshore.com/static-files/bc6569a1-89b5-43e2-b9df-7ac1510f6c78 shows Diamond Offshore made an operating loss of US$180.2m in FY2018, and a further operating loss of US$357.2m in FY2019. So red ink around long before Beach's cancellation had any impact.

Also: https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/oil-driller-diamond-offshore-files-for-bankruptcy-protection/ar-BB13h187

Yeah, but they have still had a positive cashflow.

Regardless of whether or not Beach is just the final nail in the coffin...

Still does not bode well to have them filing Chapter 11...and also suing our JV partner.

Let's hope our fearless leaders at NZO and Cue have some reassuring remarks to make soon.

[mistaTea]

Does anyone know much about Chapter 11?

While Diamond are 'restructuring' - is it feasible that Ocean Apex could still carry on to fulfill existing contractual commitments? Or does everything go on ice while they try and sort out the business 'structural' issues etc?

[Lion]

I don't know much detail about Chapter 11 (probably less than you, mistatea) but I do believe a company in Chapter 11 can keep on trading.

Here's a bit from Wikipedia on the subject:

When a business is unable to service its debt or pay its creditors, the business or its creditors can file with a federal bankruptcy court for protection under either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11.


In Chapter 7, the business ceases operations, a trustee sells all of its assets, and then distributes the proceeds to its creditors. Any residual amount is returned to the owners of the company.[2]


In Chapter 11, in most instances the debtor remains in control of its business operations as a "debtor in possession", and is subject to the oversight and jurisdiction of the court.


Note the word "protection".

By the way, you have said recently the Ironbark drill is set for early 2021. My latest information was still September this year. Any comment?

Here's a cheeky thought - maybe the Ocean Onyx is looking for work now?

But nothing is certain these days.

Aus. gas prices have held up quite well.

[Arthur]

Beach are good operators. They have a glut of cash and a diverse portfolio. In the unlikely event they are on the wrong side of this they will just shrug it off.

[mistaTea]

By the way, you have said recently the Ironbark drill is set for early 2021. My latest information was still September this year. Any comment?


This was from the last NZX update (on 20 March)

"Smooth progress is being made on our exciting Ironbark gas prospect in Western Australia. The well remains on budget and is targeted to drill end 2020/early 2021. The contracted rig, the Ocean Apex, is currently working on a multi-well campaign and its availability will determine when we can start drilling."


With COVID etc, I reckon you can be safe to assume early 2021.

[digger]

I have often put my support in to drilling Ironbark. Remember we all fought the SOA to keep our access to Ironbark intact.

Well Covid-19 has in so many ways flipped just about everything on its head---probably the oil industry the most. Well maybe it is the airline business. I am sure all readers must have been in the same shock as I was to read about WTI being settled at -37.

So to sum up maybe NZO should reconsider any type of drilling in this upside down changed world we find ourselves in. Many oil firms are going broke or on there last legs. Buying up distressed assets under these very changed times with an associated certainty of 100% of getting a return is now probably better than the longer shot of a larger asset with smaller certainty of success.
How the world has changed in the last few months.Back three months ago I would have given nil chance I would have said what I have outlined above. But for sure the world has changed and now NZO needs a very close look at which way is up in this new environment.

[blackcap]

Quarterly reads well.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352338

I like this bit: "We see opportunities coming to market as peers with weaker balance sheets exit. The board is reviewing our acquisition strategy and we are currently looking for producing assets that fit the cash avaialable on our balance sheet."

Also they have cash now of $115m so well above market capitalisation. Time to buy some more.

[mistaTea]

Quarterly reads well.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352338

I like this bit: "We see opportunities coming to market as peers with weaker balance sheets exit. The board is reviewing our acquisition strategy and we are currently looking for producing assets that fit the cash avaialable on our balance sheet."

Also they have cash now of $115m so well above market capitalisation. Time to buy some more.

Agreed, good quarterly update. Hopefully there are attractive opportunities they can exploit and our patience sitting in cash pays off. Would be happy to borrow too since money is so cheap if it meant we could grab a meaningful share of the equity of a producing asset at the right price.

With regards to the $115M cash - don’t forget that is on a consolidated basis. NZOG does not have $115M. Need to deduct the 49.96% of cues cash that does not belong to us.

Hopefully no big delays to Ironbark. As it is a gas target I don’t think the current oil price volatility affects the ‘to drill or not to drill’ business case.

[Fabs37]

[QUOTE=blackcap;811907]

REVIEWING THE BOARDS AQUISITIONS STRATEGY.

A bit cute coming from what must be the highest renumerated management reviewing board around.
Like a stuck record, exept this - hard work - has been going on for well over 10 years.

Glad for them, they can do it from home now

Hoping to be wrong, about a 5 % chance.[ Damn her is that 5% chance again ]

[k14]

Quarterly reads well.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352338

I like this bit: "We see opportunities coming to market as peers with weaker balance sheets exit. The board is reviewing our acquisition strategy and we are currently looking for producing assets that fit the cash avaialable on our balance sheet."

Also they have cash now of $115m so well above market capitalisation. Time to buy some more.
That's all well and good, but how do they add value if they acquire anything? Do they have in house expertise at turning around money loosing assets that alternative companies don't have?

[blackcap]

That's all well and good, but how do they add value if they acquire anything? Do they have in house expertise at turning around money loosing assets that alternative companies don't have?

I'm thinking more along the lines of companies that are going to the wall because of the low oil prices, but would otherwise be profitable. But what would I know, I am no expert in these matters. They have the cash to sit this period out while other operators may not and be a distressed seller thus giving NZO the ability to acquire the asset at less than fair value?

[mistaTea]

https://www.energynewsbulletin.net/investment/news/1386242/australian-oil-and-gas-contractors-next-to-be-hit-by-oil-crisis

Let's hope Ironbark is not included in the savage CAPEX cuts BP are forced to make at the moment.

In theory, because this is a huge gas prospect (and not impacted by the oil price fiasco)...it should be one of the last projects BP would cut.

Still not sure if Covid will cause delays to when we spud though. Last commentary from NZOG were positive, but we shall have to wait and see.

On a positive note we find out what Level 2 will look like in about half an hour. Things would have to go horribly wrong from where we are now for them to keep us in L3...so I am 99.9% sure we will be in Level 2 by next weds.

I can't wait to visit my local cafe for a hearty breakfast that's for sure! I'm going to push the boat out - Big Breakfast and a large flat white! Go on, spoil me!

[blackcap]

[URL]

I can't wait to visit my local cafe for a hearty breakfast that's for sure! I'm going to push the boat out - Big Breakfast and a large flat white! Go on, spoil me!


Sounds like a good plan, but you know you can make the above quite easily yourself and trust me it tastes just as good :)

[Lion]

I went to your link above, mistaTea and had a look round the site.

On this page https://www.energynewsbulletin.net/finance-legal/news/1385704/oil-price-and-economic-troubles-sink-drilling-giant dated 28th April I found this little snippet about the Ocean Apex:

"The Ocean Onyx and Ocean Apex are still positioned in the Asia Pacific region and are expected to continue to complete work even while the company is in Chapter 11."

[mistaTea]

I went to your link above, mistaTea and had a look round the site.

On this page https://www.energynewsbulletin.net/finance-legal/news/1385704/oil-price-and-economic-troubles-sink-drilling-giant dated 28th April I found this little snippet about the Ocean Apex:

"The Ocean Onyx and Ocean Apex are still positioned in the Asia Pacific region and are expected to continue to complete work even while the company is in Chapter 11."

Positive sounding news! Once I realised they could still trade under chapter 11 I figured there was a good likelihood existing commitments could continue.

After all, chapter 11 is a way to avoid going completely bust. To achieve that, they need to continue generating revenue to try and trade their way out of their current problems while they restructure their debt etc.

I just wonder if the fact that Diamond are now suing our JV partner will impact Ironbark. Hopefully not, since it is really BP who is running the show. But still far from ideal.

[Lion]

I think it was on Hot Copper that I read an opinion that if Diamond Offshore do sue Beach, that Beach are big enough and smart enough to "shrug it off".
Well, I wouldn't know about that, Diamond are a pretty huge company too.

Your link above didn't look that optimistic about Ironbark though, did it?
I wonder if there was a bit of journalistic speculation there. It didn't sound like BP themselves had mentioned Ironbark, just general budget cuts.
I agree with you - you'd think Ironbark would be one of the last projects they'd consider cutting.

I did a small top up of NZO at 49.5 a couple of weeks ago.

P.S. Your link says "New Zealand Oil And Gas said it believed the well would still spud this year"

[fish]

I think it was on Hot Copper that I read an opinion that if Diamond Offshore do sue Beach, that Beach are big enough and smart enough to "shrug it off".
Well, I wouldn't know about that, Diamond are a pretty huge company too.

Your link above didn't look that optimistic about Ironbark though, did it?
I wonder if there was a bit of journalistic speculation there. It didn't sound like BP themselves had mentioned Ironbark, just general budget cuts.
I agree with you - you'd think Ironbark would be one of the last projects they'd consider cutting.

I did a small top up of NZO at 49.5 a couple of weeks ago.

P.S. Your link says "New Zealand Oil And Gas said it believed the well would still spud this year"

I thought it was a bit of poor journalism as well ..
The money for Ironbark is held in escrow.
If Ocean Apex is unable to drill there will be a breach of contract .
No money lost.
Plenty of Rigs available-probably with cost savings.
In fact whatever happens costs are likely to be less.
Natural Gas is the future of clean energy and we can afford to take time as long as it takes provided running costs minimised.In the Industry there are many wage cuts and cost savings so future development of Ironbark more feasible.

[blackcap]

Time to liquidate surely? Some very good points made. Shareholders can receive cash, yet still participate in Ironbark. Corporate overheads must go.

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/2020/05/10/nzog-time-to-liquidate-surely/

NZOG has abandoned NZ as an investment destination yet remains sitting on a huge wad of cash. No strategy has been announced five months on from saying they would develop one – what other public company has no strategy? As a financial investor which has abandoned its mandate to invest in NZ, there is zero logic in continuing to spend nearly $10 million on an executive team and office. This letter makes the financial and operational case for liquidation to put 80 cents per share in the pockets of shareholders plus the upside in Ironbark which could be serval multiples more.

[mistaTea]

Time to liquidate surely? Some very good points made. Shareholders can receive cash, yet still participate in Ironbark. Corporate overheads must go.

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/2020/05/10/nzog-time-to-liquidate-surely/

NZOG has abandoned NZ as an investment destination yet remains sitting on a huge wad of cash. No strategy has been announced five months on from saying they would develop one – what other public company has no strategy? As a financial investor which has abandoned its mandate to invest in NZ, there is zero logic in continuing to spend nearly $10 million on an executive team and office. This letter makes the financial and operational case for liquidation to put 80 cents per share in the pockets of shareholders plus the upside in Ironbark which could be serval multiples more.

I tend to agree, in principle, that NZOG should look at liquidation in some form. My personal preference would be for the Cue shares to be distributed on a pro-rata basis to NZOG holders. Then we can decide over time if we want to keep them or sell them since they do actually have more production going on, and are domiciled in Aussie (much friendlier environment).

James proposes that NZOG return essentially all of the cash held by NZOG to shareholders now ($75M). I don't see how that is possible since about $20M or so is escrowed for our Ironbark commitment. If management have not found any opportunities generated by Covid to buy existing gas producing assets, then they could probably start the liquidation process by returning $50M (approx 30c per share).

Then we wait and see what happens with Ironbark. If it succeeds, shareholders make bunch of money. If it does not - then we sell Kupe and wind it up. As mentioned before, if the Cue shares have already been distributed then NZOG holders can decide later on whether they want to keep them or not.

I agree with his point about management and the board not reducing their fees. It is not a good look, especially given the company has been sitting on a pile of cash for so long with no clear strategy emerging. I am sure Mr Jeffries (for example) is not just drinking beers all day - but one does have to question exactly what these guys have been doing that justifies the expense.

Not sure about his stance that OGOG would take current management into the OGOG fold at no cost to NZOG shareholders. They have no obligation to do that, and management currently have employment contracts with NZOG. I assume we would need to make them redundant and pay them out if we were to liquidate. But I have no expertise in employment law or liquidation, so I can't really comment too much here.

[blackcap]

I tend to agree, in principle, that NZOG should look at liquidation in some form. My personal preference would be for the Cue shares to be distributed on a pro-rata basis to NZOG holders. Then we can decide over time if we want to keep them or sell them since they do actually have more production going on, and are domiciled in Aussie (much friendlier environment).

James proposes that NZOG return essentially all of the cash held by NZOG to shareholders now ($75M). I don't see how that is possible since about $20M or so is escrowed for our Ironbark commitment. If management have not found any opportunities generated by Covid to buy existing gas producing assets, then they could probably start the liquidation process by returning $50M (approx 30c per share).



I too would like to see the CUE shares distributed in specie. That way we the NZO holders can do with them what we will. Keep them for increased Ironbark exposure or sell for cash. Good point re the $20m in escrow. If we want to retain the NZO shares and Ironbark drill we will need the money to drill it. The rest definitely distribute to shareholders.
As for management and other expenses, they are exorbitant, especially for what is effectively a portfolio holding company with 2-3 investments at best. But will the NZO board listen?

[mistaTea]

Good point re the $20m in escrow. If we want to retain the NZO shares and Ironbark drill we will need the money to drill it. The rest definitely distribute to shareholders.
As for management and other expenses, they are exorbitant, especially for what is effectively a portfolio holding company with 2-3 investments at best. But will the NZO board listen?

I think we need to retain our 15% and fulfil our obligations to our JV partners. If we didn't then what would happen? It could end the JV and therefore the Ironbark drill.

I am not convinced the board will listen - they are mostly OGOG so they will naturally be looking our for their best interests. As much as James raises some good points, I think he ultimately does himself a disservice with his inaccuracies (around the cash that can be distributed to shareholders) and the aggressive nature of his accusations that management are just wearing out the carpet as they walk back and forth to the fridge.

It is one thing to have a little rant on Sharetrader, but if you are writing a formal letter that you wish to be taken seriously...I think a little diplomacy goes a long way.

Ultimately we all want to realise the maximum value for NZO. The story has changed over the last year or two, and James is dead right that they should seriously look at some form of liquidation.

Realistically though, that won't happen until after Ironbark I think (in a scenario where Ironbark fails). The company will need to maintain a certain amount of working capital in addition to the escrow amount to ensure it is a viable going concern while the drill happens (BP would not be happy if NZOG took it right down to the wire by distributing all of the rest of the cash to shareholders now).

They could do the in-specie distribution of Cue shares now I suppose. But why bother? If Ironbark is a success we would probably want to keep them in the NZOG family. If Ironbark fails then they could be distributed as part of the liquidation and we are no worse off.

There is some chance they might find an interesting producing gas asset to buy into now thanks to Covid. I am not holding my breath, but realistically we are going to need to sit tight for the next 9 months while we wait to drill Ironbark and get the results in my view.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Major(ultimate) shareholder Mr Ofer has other investments in oil and gas services and cruise lines.

Both these industries have been severely affected by recent events. Mr Ofer may turn over his sofa cushions looking for cash.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[fish]

Major(ultimate) shareholder Mr Ofer has other investments in oil and gas services and cruise lines.

Both these industries have been severely affected by recent events. Mr Ofer may turn over his sofa cushions looking for cash.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Hope so.
Quickest and clean way to access cash is for OGOG to make a standard takeover offer to take ogog to over 90%.
An offer in the mid-sixties plus 2 cue shares for each NZO would cost around $40 million but give ogog more than $80 million in cash plus heaps more.No liquidation costs and no redundancies.
A win - win situation and equitable outcome for all.
To be successful they have to move forward and take advantage of the moment(I suspect ACC and most of the other big holders would accept this offer now to take advantage of compensatory buying depressed stocks)

[mistaTea]

If management really are able to find a producing gas asset that is available for purchase below intrinsic value...I am keen for them to borrow at the current low rates and buy a meaningful equity stake.

Beyond that, reduce management expense as we wait for Ironbark. Drill it, and then go from there.

Liquidation very much on the cards if Ironbark fails and we have not been able to acquire said producing asset for a bargain.

[digger]

If management really are able to find a producing gas asset that is available for purchase below intrinsic value...I am keen for them to borrow at the current low rates and buy a meaningful equity stake.

Beyond that, reduce management expense as we wait for Ironbark. Drill it, and then go from there.

Liquidation very much on the cards if Ironbark fails and we have not been able to acquire said producing asset for a bargain.

Your on to it with that post. My thoughts exactally. It would show a lack of ability and contempt for their roles as directors if they do not respond to this once in a life time depressed busines environment given the cash pile.

So yes we need to hear from the company on what they are thinking.Some companies are reducing their directors pay by 30%. If our directors have thought up no plans ,maybe a 60% pay cut is reasonably in order.

[tim23]

I too would like to see the CUE shares distributed in specie. That way we the NZO holders can do with them what we will. Keep them for increased Ironbark exposure or sell for cash. Good point re the $20m in escrow. If we want to retain the NZO shares and Ironbark drill we will need the money to drill it. The rest definitely distribute to shareholders.
As for management and other expenses, they are exorbitant, especially for what is effectively a portfolio holding company with 2-3 investments at best. But will the NZO board listen?

Did the same years ago with PPP and when they went xi the shares stayed the same about 40c from memory and PPP were worth 5c

[mistaTea]

It would show a lack of ability and contempt for their roles as directors if they do not respond to this once in a life time depressed busines environment given the cash pile.

Yeah, if all of these opportunities for undervalued gas assets really do exist (entirely possible if companies with weak balance sheets are desperate enough to sell)... well then NZOG should be borrowing as much money as they can get their hands on to start buying up large.

Money is ridiculously cheap, and there should be no issue borrowing money with the government backing 80% of loans at the moment.

Otherwise, if these opportunities are not actually available for us and not much is going on between now and Ironbark, I think the decent thing to do would be to reduce fees and salaries for the rest of 2020.

But as they say: wish in one hand, sh1t in the other - see which one fills up first!

[blackcap]

I see James Dunphy's letter has reached Tim Hunter at the NBR:

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/investor-calls-liquidation-nz-oil-gas

[mistaTea]

I see James Dunphy's letter has reached Tim Hunter at the NBR:

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/investor-calls-liquidation-nz-oil-gas

Maybe James Dunphy is hoping that his letter which highlights the low SP relative to assets controlled will stimulate some interest in the company and lift the SP.

Surely he must realise that it is impractical to start the liquidation process now without jeopardising the Ironbark drill.

[blackcap]

Maybe James Dunphy is hoping that his letter which highlights the low SP relative to assets controlled will stimulate some interest in the company and lift the SP.

Surely he must realise that it is impractical to start the liquidation process now without jeopardising the Ironbark drill.

I am not sure what James Dunphy is hoping. I have not seen him on the register, unless that has changed recently, so he seems to be putting in a lot of resource and effort for little? reward.

[Wiremu]

I am not sure what James Dunphy is hoping. I have not seen him on the register, unless that has changed recently, so he seems to be putting in a lot of resource and effort for little? reward.

Self-publicity perhaps. It would be appropriate in the NBR article if they stated how many shares were owned by the shareholder they are publicising - poor and self-serving journalism that they didn't.

Also relevant that James' brother is the major shareholder in Greymouth Petroleum.

[Lion]

Disturbing news on Bloomberg about the possibility of an LNG price war similar to the current oil situation.


"(Qatar), the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas may soon face a stark choice: curb output or ignite a battle for market share that has the potential -- just as in the oil market -- to turn gas prices negative."

[mistaTea]

Disturbing news on Bloomberg about the possibility of an LNG price war similar to the current oil situation.


"(Qatar), the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas may soon face a stark choice: curb output or ignite a battle for market share that has the potential -- just as in the oil market -- to turn gas prices negative."

Not really relevant to Ironbark I don’t think. Even if a discovery is made - it would be years before gas was actually pulled out of the ground.

What Qatar may or may not do in the short to medium term is of little consequence I think.

All that matters right now is rig availability, and BP’s review of their planned projects.

[mistaTea]

Some chatter about the big cuts being made in OPEX and CAPEX by the big guys.

https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/dwindling-opportunities-for-osvs-as-gas-megaprojects-lsquomove-to-the-rightrsquo-59328

Ironbark is mentioned too:

"Another greenfield development project that might be impacted by recent spending cuts by BP is the Ironbark gas prospect. In April, BP said it would reduce its planned spending in 2020 by 25%. “This may be the most brutal environment for oil and gas businesses in decades,” BP chief executive Bernard Looney said. BP said it would reduce spending to US$12Bn and cut opex by US$2.5Bn in 2020.However, New Zealand Oil & Gas, BP’s partner in Ironbark, reported that the well remains on budget and is targeted to drill by the end of 2020 or early 2021. Diamond Offshore’s semi-submersible Ocean Apex has been contracted for the project."

[Wiremu]

An excellent paper for oilers from McKinsey: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/oil-and-gas-after-covid-19-the-day-of-reckoning-or-a-new-age-of-opportunity

[airedale]

An excellent paper for oilers from McKinsey: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/oil-and-gas-after-covid-19-the-day-of-reckoning-or-a-new-age-of-opportunity

Although it is not an NZO business, after reading that paper, the future of Marsden Point refinery does not look assured.

[Lion]

Diamond Offshore have a rig status report (dated Feb 10, admittedly) that lists the start date to drill Ironbark as late October 2020.
The Ocean Apex is shown as currently drilling 4 wells + options for Woodside, then going on to Ironbark.

Antman4 on HotCopper says Woodside are skipping the 'options' and that may mean Ironbark starts earlier.
His 'hunch' is August.

Is it almost time for the 'thrill of the drill' ??

CUE is steadily edging up.

P.S. This site https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:1534406/mmsi:538001747/imo:8753005/vessel:OCEAN_APEX
may have more detail, including where next and when, but you have to pay.

Have you had your big breakfast yet, mistaTea?

[mistaTea]

Have you had your big breakfast yet, mistaTea?

I most certainly have had a big brekkie!

This is the link to the Apex drilling schedule (although it is dated in Feb, and clearly the world has changed significantly in the last 3 months...)

http://www.diamondoffshore.com/Documents/Rig%20Report/DOFleetStatus.pdf

With Woodside confirming the deferment of some projects, Ironbark could absolutely be drilled earlier than anticipated (which would be fantastic). If they started drilling in, say, August... we will know by Xmas whether or not Santa is brining any presents this year. To make it easier on you Santa - I can tell you right now I like valuable assets that are readily convertible to cash! 15Tcf of gas pushing up the NZO SP significantly would do just fine!

The unknown for me is what BP are going to do. They are also cutting OPEX and CAPEX like everyone else. But perhaps Ironbark is a project that does not get cut because it is too far advanced in the planning? A commitment has been made to the Australian authorities, all cash is escrowed and committed to the drill, the rig has been commissioned and will be ready on time or earlier...

According to Diamond, drilling was scheduled to start in October. When Covid really started to hit, we were probably only about 6 months out from the drill. So hopefully NZO and Cue can update the marker soon with some good news regarding ironbark.

[airedale]

(https://aod-pod-ww-live.akamaized.net/mpg_mp3_med/modav/bUnknown-2e8f3917-3aa0-4766-8dd5-b0dfab64b003_p08dg3ly_cUnknown_1589740374531.mp3?_ _gda__=1590469976_8e20a660e86bbed8ccef2e7c1c9854f4 )

[airedale]

Had second thoughts. Post deleted

[Waikaka]

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/beach-energy-preparing-for-drilling-ops-offshore-new-zealand/

Posted as related to rig chat.

Pretty sure it is not pay-walled.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354152

What a waste of time and money, quite frankly. 6 months of meeting shareholders, having workshops and navel gazing to end up with:

1) We need to stay in our circle of competence
2) We need to live within our means
3) There will probably be opportunities caused by Covid, and if we find any we should absolutely exploit them.

Jesus Christ.

[k14]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354152

What a waste of time and money, quite frankly. 6 months of meeting shareholders, having workshops and navel gazing to end up with:

1) We need to stay in our circle of competence
2) We need to live within our means
3) There will probably be opportunities caused by Covid, and if we find any we should absolutely exploit them.

Jesus Christ.
You forgot to mention they signed "several" (I guess that means two?) confidentiality agreements. Having had to do this in my job on a few occasions, I know the time and effort it takes to do these. Each one took me at least an hour to sort out plus multiple trips to the photocopier, with COVID it could easily double the time these things take. Looking forward to their next update...

[mistaTea]

You forgot to mention they signed "several" (I guess that means two?) confidentiality agreements. Having had to do this in my job on a few occasions, I know the time and effort it takes to do these. Each one took me at least an hour to sort out plus multiple trips to the photocopier, with COVID it could easily double the time these things take. Looking forward to their next update...

Yes indeed! There I was being so hard on them when you are dead right - they have been pulling 15 hour days to get us to where we are now.

On a more serious note, the only good thing in that announcement is that Ironbark is still on track to be drilled this year.

[Chippie]

The worst statement from my perspective is "New Zealand
Oil & Gas' stock price is up 13% over the past 12 months (as of 3 June 2020),
performance that few of its peers can match. "

This is a joke to claim this as a positive.

[mistaTea]

The worst statement from my perspective is "New Zealand
Oil & Gas' stock price is up 13% over the past 12 months (as of 3 June 2020),
performance that few of its peers can match. "

This is a joke to claim this as a positive.

Agreed. Pretty well all of the large minority shareholders they talked with have given the same message: we are investors, not stock traders.

So to bandy about a statistic like that as though we will find it pleasing just tells me that they still don't understand their shareholder base, and aren't really listening.

I am only hanging around for Ironbark - certainly not because I feel at peace with the current Leadership in charge.

[fish]

The worst statement from my perspective is "New Zealand
Oil & Gas' stock price is up 13% over the past 12 months (as of 3 June 2020),
performance that few of its peers can match. "

This is a joke to claim this as a positive.

It is also insulting to our intelligence.
Based on a cherry picking selection of time frame and the trading of a handful of shares in the past few weeks .

[Chippie]

I am out of NZO completely now. Have given up on the incompetent management.

A real shame as I first purchased a lot of shares @ 26 cents (pre 2000) and did well. Although also converted a number of options at $1.50 in 2008, which has not gone so well.

I cannot even start to describe what I think of the management of this company. Absolute rubbish!

Good luck to holders on Ironbark, I hope you all make some money out of this one.

[mistaTea]

I cannot even start to describe what I think of the management of this company. Absolute rubbish!


Yep, I was genuinely excited when OGOG came on board as majority shareholder. So far, since the blunder they made over the Scheme of Arrangement, I have felt nothing but disappointment to be frank. I was underwhelmed meeting Andrew and Alistair.

Will they find something worthwhile investing between now and the drill? It is possible I suppose, but I am not exactly filled with confidence at the moment. So I probably won't hold my breath



Good luck to holders on Ironbark, I hope you all make some money out of this one.


Thanks mate, we need a healthy dose of luck at this stage! The Ironbark drill is definitely the only interesting thing happening with this company at the moment imo.

A large gas discovery will be transformational for the company, so fingers crossed.

[Sharp737]

I made money out of NZOG (as it was then) years ago back in the days of Tony Radford. Might be worth a look again at some stage perhaps

[fish]

Yep, I was genuinely excited when OGOG came on board as majority shareholder. So far, since the blunder they made over the Scheme of Arrangement, I have felt nothing but disappointment to be frank. I was underwhelmed meeting Andrew and Alistair.

Will they find something worthwhile investing between now and the drill? It is possible I suppose, but I am not exactly filled with confidence at the moment. So I probably won't hold my breath



Thanks mate, we need a healthy dose of luck at this stage! The Ironbark drill is definitely the only interesting thing happening with this company at the moment imo.

A large gas discovery will be transformational for the company, so fingers crossed.

This announcement is exactly what I expected (but hoped for better).
For me Ironbark is exciting and nothing has happened to dampen my optimism.
Unlike some prospects it will not be cancelled because the odds of financial success are high compared to the cost of the drill

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/nzog-gives-activist-brush

Write up in NBR for those of you who subscribe.

[mistaTea]

Bit of 'price action' happening over the last few days. Low trade volumes, but still.

Market anticipating an announcement of an earlier than expected Ironbark drill?

If Woodside's project postponement means we could drill as early as August then we could be getting a 'thrill' in a couple of months.

[fish]

Bit of 'price action' happening over the last few days. Low trade volumes, but still.

Market anticipating an announcement of an earlier than expected Ironbark drill?

If Woodside's project postponement means we could drill as early as August then we could be getting a 'thrill' in a couple of months.

Would be good for less informed investors like me if you could kindly explain more.
I read this morning BP are laying off 10000 employees and postponing projects.
Also aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050 (does this mean moving from oil to natural gas ? )

[Wiremu]

The U.K.-based oil major on Monday said its three-month moratorium on layoffs is ending immediately, and that the company will start a process to shed thousands of jobs, majority of which are office-based. The company said it plans to protect its rig workers, and prioritize safe and reliable operations.
BP’s full release:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reinventing-bp-next-steps-bernard-looney/?trackingId=h8FmFLmIQ7mh3i9+TbC29w==&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top&src=aff-lilpar&veh=aff_src.aff-lilpar_c.partners_pkw.10078_plc.Skimbit%20Ltd._pcr id.449670_learning&trk=aff_src.aff-lilpar_c.partners_pkw.10078_plc.Skimbit%20Ltd._pcr id.449670_learning&clickid=xQzXn5WqyxyOR-lwUx0Mo3k3Uki3mNV1%3Azcz300&irgwc=1

[mistaTea]

Would be good for less informed investors like me if you could kindly explain more.
I read this morning BP are laying off 10000 employees and postponing projects.
Also aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050 (does this mean moving from oil to natural gas ? )

Hey fish, they have a massive workforce that should really have been cut back ages ago I think. Lots of overpaid office workers and managers.

The low oil price shock has hastened that inevitability, just like how COVID has exposed inefficiencies in most other organisations.

But from what I can see exploration projects like Ironbark are still go.

Like all companies, BP needs to become a leaner machine if it wants a sustainable future, so this announcement shouldn’t be a big surprise. It’s just the numbers are huge because BP is enormous.

Plus NZOG just recently stated again that Ironbark is still go, not impacted by COVID. The BP website still says that drilling could start as early as Q2 of 2020.

As it stands I don’t think there is any information out there that would make us think Ironbark is going to be postponed.

[Fabs37]

Will nzog not be far behind BP, shedding staff then???

[mistaTea]

Will nzog not be far behind BP, shedding staff then???

You mean do something in the best interest of shareholders? Hmmmmn.

Well, when Pagani left (suddenly!) they have not replaced him. So that is something I suppose.

As the company stands right now...beyond the CEO, lawyer and CFO...it is hard to imagine what Chris Mckeown (VP Business Development) and Michael Wright (General Manager Commercial) are actually doing.

I don't mean that maliciously or spitefully...it's just the company has not actually done much at all in the last, what?, 12 months? Longer?

The busiest they have been recently was for the failed SOA scam.

And I don't think we are getting Chris and Michael for $18.90 an hour!

[blackcap]

You mean do something in the best interest of shareholders? Hmmmmn.

Well, when Pagani left (suddenly!) they have not replaced him. So that is something I suppose.

As the company stands right now...beyond the CEO, lawyer and CFO...it is hard to imagine what Chris Mckeown (VP Business Development) and Michael Wright (General Manager Commercial) are actually doing.

I don't mean that maliciously or spitefully...it's just the company has not actually done much at all in the last, what?, 12 months? Longer?

The busiest they have been recently was for the failed SOA scam.

And I don't think we are getting Chris and Michael for $18.90 an hour!

Why do they actually need a full on in house lawyer on what I figure is between $100k to $250k per annum? That makes no sense whatsoever. Or have I missed something.

And the failed SOA scam should not have come at the expense of NZO shareholders but rather OG themselves. Bet ya that NZO paid for it though.

[Lion]

Interesting headline on CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/18/investing/oil-price-spike-jpmorgan/index.html

$190 oil sounds crazy. But JPMorgan thinks it's possible, even after the pandemic


The main idea is that drastically cut investment now by big oil will lead to a shortage in the future.

"That's because oil companies must spend heavily just to maintain production, let alone increase it. If they do nothing, output will naturally decline."

[mistaTea]

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/05/warren-buffetts-berkshire-buys-dominion-energy-natural-gas-assets-in-10-billion-deal.html

Buffett bullish on gas...

[mistaTea]

https://www.bp.com/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/exploring.html

I think this page has been updated - because there is a line there now that says "Drilling activities are planned to commence in October 2020". Pretty sure the BP website had more loosely worded time commitments before (i.e. end of 2020 or early 2021). So it is great to see a more concrete time frame.

Which is in line with Ocean Apex becoming available sooner than originally expected.

The drill is expected to take 70 - 90 days. If we are fortunate enough to make a discovery it doesn't look like it will be a Xmas present...but maybe an early Happy New Year present :eek2:

After all this time, we might only be three months away from when we spud for the drill of a lifetime!

[Lion]

BP Website:

Well spotted, mistaTea and very interesting. I'm sure it is quite a recent update there.

"After all this time, we might only be three months away from when we spud for the drill of a lifetime!" Woohoo!

Were you thinking of posting this on the CUE thread here or on Hot Copper? I will if you don't - won't hurt to spread the news to the Aussies.
Exciting times coming up - can't wait!

Disclosure: excitable, mature bloke.

[mistaTea]

BP Website:

Well spotted, mistaTea and very interesting. I'm sure it is quite a recent update there.

"After all this time, we might only be three months away from when we spud for the drill of a lifetime!" Woohoo!

Were you thinking of posting this on the CUE thread here or on Hot Copper? I will if you don't - won't hurt to spread the news to the Aussies.
Exciting times coming up - can't wait!

Disclosure: excitable, mature bloke.

Hey Lion, you can go ahead and share the link 😀

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/356475/326606.pdf

Confirmation of October target - not long to go now at all!

[Lion]

Mr Market seems to like the latest announcement, especially in Australia where CUE is up 18% - so far.

mistaTea - drill results could just be out by Christmas, if things go well. Spud early October and then the shorter drill time estimate of 70 days takes us to some time in December.

WPL announced yesterday that they should release the Ocean Apex this quarter, ​which ends in September.

[mistaTea]

Mr Market seems to like the latest announcement, especially in Australia where CUE is up 18% - so far.

mistaTea - drill results could just be out by Christmas, if things go well. Spud early October and then the shorter drill time estimate of 70 days takes us to some time in December.

WPL announced yesterday that they should release the Ocean Apex this quarter, ​which ends in September.

Yes it is possible that Santa may have a Xmas pressie for us this year. But even if they start on 1 October and it only takes 70 days...by the time they process and analyse the data I think it would be a while before they confirm if a discovery has been made or not. I would bank on finding out if we succeeded or not early next year - but I hope to be wrong on that!

Awesome that WPL have confirmed their release of the OA. I’ve never participated in a drill before so this is a new experience for me.

Hopefully digger chimes in soon. He REALLY loved this stuff.

[Getty]

Yeah, and while we're in the mood, also that dude Shrewd Crude

[digger]

[QUOTE=mistaTea;

Hopefully digger chimes in soon. He REALLY loved this stuff.[/QUOTE]

Hi Mista tea and other NZO holders.
I am certainly watching and reading all I can about what is happening. My nerve state is in conflict with covid19. By that i mean just as covid 19 potential members of the public buy toilet paper I will soon have to compete against them to stock up for the ironbark drill.
I have bought a few more NZO and CUE since the failed takeover days so my interest,concern, and payers are all hoping for a successful conclusion--well > 5% anyways.

I have taken part in many of theses drills before. NZO last success was TUI many many years ago,so just keep it in mind that more often than not the well comes up dry. If it is a fail,holders always say they are kicking themselves for not selling some or all in the predrill hype. Just a little warning to keep things in balance.
I will not be selling so in the end --so for richer or poorers we go forward.
Nothing to do now but wait and watch out for news clips.
Thanks for all your posting mista Tea. I read them with interest

[mistaTea]

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.oedigital.com/amp/news/480270-bp-cleared-to-drill-at-ironbark

Drilling needs to be done by mid Jan 2021 as the rig then goes back to Woodside.

Do any of the long term holders who have participated in drills before have an idea of how long it usually takes for them to process the data for a drill like this and confirm whether it has been a success or not?

We should know by February or March 2021?

[fish]

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.oedigital.com/amp/news/480270-bp-cleared-to-drill-at-ironbark

Drilling needs to be done by mid Jan 2021 as the rig then goes back to Woodside.

Do any of the long term holders who have participated in drills before have an idea of how long it usually takes for them to process the data for a drill like this and confirm whether it has been a success or not?

We should know by February or March 2021?

Hi MistaTea,

We may Know by Xmas .
They announce when it spuds,progress announcements,wire logging ,problems encountered,detection of hydrocarbons and a few days later how significant.
This is deep water gas and I have not researched recently but if I recall correctly its likely to be a complete hit or a complete fail.

Hope someone who Knows more than me posts about this topic

[Waikaka]

Might wade in here.

First off due to the cost in having kit out there decision are made quick. Less than a week to run flow tests to the surface once the well is completed.

They will have a decision tree set out before they drill. Which will look something like this:

Mudlog has shows/LWD positive/gas kicks - Yes then run wireline, no then abandon.

If wire line is not conclusive. P&A and work up the well with what data you have. If it shows good response then they put down a MDT (formation tester) to take a sample if there is not much or run DST (drill string test) which packs off and tests a reservoir unit if it can flow sufficent to the surface.

If it gets to DST test and flows well they know straight away if it amazing. Sometimes it is again inconclusive and needs further work.

If amazing they will often have follow up exploration wells already consented.

If it is exciting results stuff happens real quick. Think about Pohokura-1 which was completed in March 2000, found 130m gas, flowed at respectable ~17MMscf/d. Pohokura-2 was completed by June 2000 they were getting ready to run multiple DST in Pohokura-2 which ended up flowing at 35MMscf/d.

All I would say about knowing conclusive results early is that often they will drill frontier prospects a bit over balance until they understand which units are draining mud or producing fluids. This will often suppress the shows seen by the mud loggers. Hence the importance of LWD (logging while drilling). A positive DST doesn't guarantee a commercial success just read into Kora discovery in North Taranaki by Amoco.

[mistaTea]

Some speculation on HotCopper that the pre-drill price for Cue could rocket to as high as 30c (which would be a market cap of ~$200M).

Any thoughts on the type of price action NZOG might see?
Based on experience from previous big drills?

[fish]

Some speculation on HotCopper that the pre-drill price for Cue could rocket to as high as 30c (which would be a market cap of ~$200M).

Any thoughts on the type of price action NZOG might see?
Based on experience from previous big drills?

We have never in my experience seen a drill this size and with such a chance of success .
Trading over the last few months has been on small volumes but perhaps in response to news of the October drill start we are seeing a big rise in CUE and small increase in NZO
If my maths is correct for each NZO share ,NZO owns 2 CUE shares.
So if CUE rockets up another 16 cents each NZO would be worth another 32 cents .
Then if we account for the NZO direct participation of the drill a slightly smaller amount-?27 cents.
It is easy to see the possibility of hitting over $1 in the next 10 weeks-pre-drill .
The real action will start if hints of success during the drill .

[Lion]

Interesting depth right now. Only 1097 shares for sale below 80c!

[mistaTea]

Interesting depth right now. Only 1097 shares for sale below 80c!

I'm backing the dude (possibly dudette I guess...) who wants $1 a pop for their 10 shares!

GET IN THERE BOY!

[Lion]

We have never in my experience seen a drill this size and with such a chance of success .
Trading over the last few months has been on small volumes but perhaps in response to news of the October drill start we are seeing a big rise in CUE and small increase in NZO
If my maths is correct for each NZO share ,NZO owns 2 CUE shares.
So if CUE rockets up another 16 cents each NZO would be worth another 32 cents .
Then if we account for the NZO direct participation of the drill a slightly smaller amount-?27 cents.
It is easy to see the possibility of hitting over $1 in the next 10 weeks-pre-drill .
The real action will start if hints of success during the drill .


I did the maths in more detail, fish, and you are pretty close at that 2 for one. Here's my arithmetic, but of course, the market is rarely rational:



CUE have 698,000,000 shares on issue
NZO have 164,430,718 shares on issue


1c change for CUE increases their MC by about $A7M, say NZ$7.4m.
Half of that goes to NZO, adding to their MC. Divide $3.7m by 164.m shares gives 2.25c per NZO share.

[mistaTea]

Only 97 shares on offer for less than 72c now Lion...

[Lion]

Only 97 shares on offer for less than 72c now Lion...
Yes, I was just about to get em but a seller of 308 ducked in. I only have $100 in my account! Never mind. Anyone else?

[mistaTea]

Not that I usually care about short-term price fluctuations...but it has been interesting watching the trades today (low volumes though they are).

Right now the depth indicates that nobody is prepared to sell any more shares for less than 65c.

Well, that is already 3c/share higher than the 'compelling' offer OGOG started off with.

They ended up lifting to 74c...but the market is likely to exceed that before long as we get closer to the drill. Given the prospects (of which Ironbark was essentially a done deal even before OGOG launched the takeover...) within 12 months of their offer the SP was always likely to exceed what they were prepared to pay for the whole business.

Patience pays off - by just sitting tight and doing nothing for another year...those who have no intention of sticking around to the bitter end of this drill will likely get much more for their shares if they choose to sell on Market than the benevolent OGOG were willing to pay.

[Getty]

Good point there Mista.
By making such a low offer, OGOG must have thought the shareholders were Ironbarking mad

[Lion]

By making such a low offer, OGOG must have thought the shareholders were Ironbarking mad

Yes, and now it's looking like an (almost) Iron-clad guarantee of riches for we shareholders.

(I know the probability of success is still not that great, but why let a good pun go to waste??)

I'd love to know what the talk is round the NZOG office and board room these days. Do they wish they'd been more generous with their S of A offer??
CUE must be pretty happy though.
We don't hear anything of Mahato these days. Small compared to Ironbark, but not insignificant. Has it gone to court anywhere, does anyone know?

[mistaTea]

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.pipeliner.com.au/ironbark-gets-go-ahead/amp/

Doesn’t really add anything new - but some bullish comments from CUE boss (which is to be expected). Three months to the drill - so towards the end of October perhaps.

[mistaTea]

I'd love to know what the talk is round the NZOG office and board room these days. Do they wish they'd been more generous with their S of A offer??


They would have succeeded if they started out offering 74c (the same price they paid for the first 70%). That would have been a solid starting point and would not have infuriated minority shareholders so much.

But because they are so greedy, they didn’t even consider this.

Had they started at 74, they would have left themselves some wiggle room to go up to, say, 85c. That would have almost certainly achieved enough FOR votes.

And an 85c offer was only about US$5M more than the 74c offer they ended on. Considering how absolutely COLOSSAL Ironbark is, an extra US$5M for OGOG is lunch money.

Absolutely beggars belief how these guys f*cked that deal up so bad.

Don’t get me wrong - I am grateful that they did as I would have been gutted if I did not get to participate in the drill after years of waiting patiently. To have it snatched from me so close to the end would have been very painful.

But what a bunch of horses arses.

[fish]

I count myself lucky they had such bad advice with the takeover .
If they had succeeded we may have lost the proceeds in the Covid crash.
Instead it enabled me to buy a lot more.
I enjoyed meeting them .
Last people I shook hands with.
Its the biggest free gamble you could ever have .
My assessment remains 50/50 chance of bonanza .

[Marilyn Munroe]

Will BP's profit slide and debt increase curb their enthusiasm for the Ironbark drill?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/bp-earnings.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[fish]

Will BP's profit slide and debt increase curb their enthusiasm for the Ironbark drill?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/bp-earnings.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

That link was posted in April--we now know the answer to your question is NO

[digger]

Yesterday Cue reported that Ironbark in the Carnarvon Basin was due to spud on the 2nd guarter of 2021. Hope that is wrong and it is Octomber of this year. Anyone heard any different?

[blackcap]

Yesterday Cue reported that Ironbark in the Carnarvon Basin was due to spud on the 2nd guarter of 2021. Hope that is wrong and it is Octomber of this year. Anyone heard any different?

2nd quarter of FY 21 is October to Dec 2020. FY 21 is the year from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 21. The second quarter of this "FY" is the months of October, Nov and Dec 20. Hope that helps.

[digger]

2nd quarter of FY 21 is October to Dec 2020. FY 21 is the year from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 21. The second quarter of this "FY" is the months of October, Nov and Dec 20. Hope that helps.

Thanks,about time I got my head around that.. was thinking it would be april may of 2021.

[Getty]

Thanks,about time I got my head around that.. was thinking it would be april may of 2021.

I had AMNESIA once too, but I've forgotten about it..

[digger]

I had AMNESIA once too, but I've forgotten about it..

Good humor. I always like a joke.

So great to know an October possible drill start is on the cards.

[mistaTea]

Annual Results out.

Great to have Kupe and Indonesian reserves increased.

Underlying Owner Earnings attributable to NZOG shareholders increased by ~$1M (~$4M last year, ~$5M this year).

Not ideal that two thirds of consolidated revenue came from Cue...let's hope Andrew does actual find something meaningful worth investing in soon. We could buy something up to ~$50M with the cash we have on hand.

For the right asset, we should be prepared to borrow given we currently have zero debt. Securing lending for fossil fuels is more difficult these days, but I am sure OGOG could help us make it happen if it was needed.

[jorge_telosa]

New Zealand Oil & Gas is pleased to announce that it intends to seek listing for New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited on the ASX as a foreign exempt entity. A listing application has been lodged with the ASX this afternoon. Once approved, the Company will again be listed on the ASX (this time as a foreign exempt entity) as well as remaining listed on the NZX.

[Ripping]

NZO applies for foreign exempt ASX listing.
This boosted the SP today. I feel a certain amount of optimism in the Co. for them to be pursuing this. Due to Ironbark alone? Or do they have something else brewing ?

[mistaTea]

NZO applies for foreign exempt ASX listing.
This boosted the SP today. I feel a certain amount of optimism in the Co. for them to be pursuing this. Due to Ironbark alone? Or do they have something else brewing ?

Anyone able to provide insight into what a foreign exempt ASX listing means?

I wonder if the end game is just to have an ASX listing since there is more interest in explorers in Aus?

[blackcap]

Anyone able to provide insight into what a foreign exempt ASX listing means?

I wonder if the end game is just to have an ASX listing since there is more interest in explorers in Aus?

It means that if you are in Australia you can buy NZO on the ASX. The exempt bit is that they do not have to comply with all the listing rules that a firm applying for listing on the ASX in an IPO would as they are already listed here etc.

ASX Foreign Exempt Listings are entities that are listed on another securities exchange and have a secondary listing on ASX. They must comply primarily with the rules of their home exchange and are exempt from complying with most of ASX's Listing Rules.

https://www.asx.com.au/products/foreign-entity-data.htm#:~:text=ASX%20Foreign%20Exempt%20Listings %20are,most%20of%20ASX's%20Listing%20Rules.

[Getty]

Very exact Blackcap, or as I put it, you can tell more lies, & provide less disclosure on the NZX.
But still the potential to attract more Aussie interest, so win/win for everybody.

[mistaTea]

It means that if you are in Australia you can buy NZO on the ASX. The exempt bit is that they do not have to comply with all the listing rules that a firm applying for listing on the ASX in an IPO would as they are already listed here etc.

ASX Foreign Exempt Listings are entities that are listed on another securities exchange and have a secondary listing on ASX. They must comply primarily with the rules of their home exchange and are exempt from complying with most of ASX's Listing Rules.

https://www.asx.com.au/products/foreign-entity-data.htm#:~:text=ASX%20Foreign%20Exempt%20Listings %20are,most%20of%20ASX's%20Listing%20Rules.

Thanks Blackcap.

So looks like they will def keep the NZX listing it seems since they can just keep to NZX disclosure rules while maintaining the ASX listing.

[fish]

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/northern-gas-appetite-fuels-exploration-interest-20200826-p55pir

Despite Covid and cancellation of many exploratory projects there remains keen interest in deepwater NW Australia .In recent years deepwater drills have increased their success rate with improved directional drilling technique and wellbore sampling.
Every NZO share carries 2 cue shares.
Success at Ironbark would be a massive multiplier of value for NZO.
If it fails it still looks as if the asset value of NZO is greater than than that offered by OGOG last year

[SPC]

I've held NZO for a few years and it's only by reading the posts of some of the 'subject-expert' owners of NZO that I've kept my holding rather than falling for the various heists that have come along. I'd just like to convey my appreciation to those ST members who have drilled down and spelt out the true potential and underlying value within NZO.
I'm still holding and I appreciate the sound advice that members have made available to holders like myself.

[nztx]

I've held NZO for a few years and it's only by reading the posts of some of the 'subject-expert' owners of NZO that I've kept my holding rather than falling for the various heists that have come along. I'd just like to convey my appreciation to those ST members who have drilled down and spelt out the true potential and underlying value within NZO.
I'm still holding and I appreciate the sound advice that members have made available to holders like myself.

As a recent holder, the thread postings here got my curiosity & interest enough to dive in to join others .. so thanks to previous posters
for your informative postings..

[Lion]

There's been a flurry of postings on HC today, speculating what the foreign exempt listing means. Many think it could make it easier for NZO to mount a takeover of CUE. Another view reckoned NZO would need liquidity on the ASX if Ironbark is successful. I don't get that - if I/B is successful, won't NZO and Cue (and we shareholders!) be awash with cash? (Edit - I suppose they will have to find more money to develop the field(s) before any cash rolls in).
Another poster thought the other NWS partners would be after NZO & CUE if there's a successful strike, but that doesn't make sense either, OGOG won't want to sell NZO, and NZO have a majority share in CUE (just) and wouldn't want to sell either.
One hopeful CUE holder said he'd sell his shares for a dollar pre-drill (currently 15c).

Exciting times ahead, guys!

[mistaTea]

Very few shares available for under 68c today. And then only ~70,000 shares available for 68c-70c.

Too right too, it would be nuts to sell any shares at the moment unless the price offered was compelling and allowed you lower your downside by taking some money off the table (but still allowing you to participate in the drill in a meaningful way).

And this stock has a lot higher to go before much selling happens I think.

Current market cap of CUE =A$104M, which is ~NZ$113M.

NZOG share of Cue then = NZ$56.5M.

NZOG Market Cap = NZ$108M.

If we subtract our share of Cue (which has been valued by ASX investors) then the rest of NZOG is currently only worth NZ$51.5M apparently.

Now, if we subtract the money we have set aside for the Ironbark drill, NZOG still has ~$50M of cash just sitting in the bank ready to be invested (and no debt). Forget that we still hold 4% of Kupe (which has just had its reserves significantly upgraded)...no value seems to be ascribed to that.

So it will be interesting to see if re-listing on the ASX helps with interest in the business and pushes the market value up to something that seems more realistic.

[blackcap]

.

So it will be interesting to see if re-listing on the ASX helps with interest in the business and pushes the market value up to something that seems more realistic.

It does open up a whole new market of investors that would otherwise not purchase shares off the NZX. In fact does anyone know Australians that ask their brokers to purchase shares on the NZX? Not that I can think of. So a huge potential market of interest. Will it transpire to more interest and liquidity? Probably not the liquidity but maybe more buying pressure?

[mistaTea]

Will it transpire to more interest and liquidity? Probably not the liquidity but maybe more buying pressure?

Yeah there are only about 50mil shares not owned by OGOG which could potentially be traded.

Of those shares, you can easily subtract 10-15mil of those to account for investors like ACC, fish, digger, wiremu and myself who don't want to sell much if any shares before the drill (unless the price really did become compelling beforehand).

So it will never become an especially liquid stock...and that may put some investors off. Having said that, if the price keeps going up there will be a point where a good number of sellers appear.

At the end of the day, even if the price rocketed up to $1/share... a large investor could buy 5% of NZOG for ~NZ$8M. Chump change to own a significant stake of a company that has ~25% equity in the biggest drill this century and the deepest drill in Australian history.

So let's hope the ASX brings some rich Aussies who want a piece of history!

[mistaTea]

A HotCopper user shared this earlier...I wonder if our leaders wish they hadn't banned offshore now that we will need every single revenue stream we can get our hands on to recover economically from Covid-19. A lot of them are ideologues, so probably not.

AFR article from a week ago:

Northern gas appetite fuels exploration interest

The growing interest in exploring for gas off Australia's north coast has prompted the release of several new exploration permits to international and domestic energy companies.
About 42 permits are being offered, covering 100,000 square kilometres in Commonwealth waters off Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Victoria in the federal government's 2020 offshore petroleum licensing round.
Federal Resources Minister Keith Pitt said that despite COVID-19 bringing about lower prices and softer demand in the oil and gas industry, exploration would play a key role in helping the economy recover from the pandemic.
The acreage on offer is dominated by areas in established provinces for oil and gas production with existing pipelines that would help ensure low costs, Mr Pitt told a webinar on the release, open to explorers from around the world.
"This is consistent with the drive to ensure major projects have and maintain steady supply into the future," he said.
Exploration had been picking up (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/petroleum-exploration-defies-critics-as-drilling-takes-off-20200127-p53v4q) before the pandemic hit, Mr Pitt said, pointing to two significant gas discoveries made in the December half last year, at the Bratwurst well drilled by Shell off WA (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/shell-hails-significant-gas-discovery-off-wa-20191224-p53mox) and at the Annie well drilled off Victoria by Cooper Energy and Mitsui. (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/gas-find-off-victoria-lifts-hopes-for-supply-from-late-2021-20190906-p52ola)

ExxonMobil also drilled a deep well in the Bass Strait, Sculpin-1 (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/exxon-promises-new-gas-for-east-coast-by-early-2021-20200304-p546uj), but has not released the results, fuelling speculation it has not been successful.
Although oil and gas companies have cut their spending budgets following the oil price slump in March, some drilling is continuing, including the coming Ironbark well by BP, which is being closely watched (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/bp-gets-all-clear-to-drill-mega-gas-prospect-20200718-p55dba). Involving Cue Energy Resources, Beach Energy and New Zealand Oil & Gas, it is set to be the country's deepest well drilled offshore, with a depth of 5.5 kilometres, and is targeting a large gas find.
Geoscience Australia's manager for the acreage release, Tom Bernecker, pointed to the continuing industry appetite for exploration in proven petroleum provinces such as the North West Shelf as well as to a revival of interest in gas in the Bonaparte Basin off the north coast.
"It is interesting to see the Bonaparte Basin has become a new focus of industry interest," he said, highlighting "really strong remaining gas potential" in that region.
According to Geoscience Australia calculations, nearly 28 trillion cubic feet of gas could be in the Bonaparte Basin, compared with just 350 billion cubic feet of gas so far produced.
The Browse Basin, Australia's newest gas producing basin which started up in 2018 at the Ichthys field, also has significant potential, with an estimated 39.75 tcf of gas remaining compared with production so far of 70 bcf.
Bids are due by June 1, 2021, and the acreage is to be awarded based on planned exploration work.

https://www.copyright link/companies/energy/northern-gas-appetite-fuels-exploration-interest-20200826-p55pir (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/northern-gas-appetite-fuels-exploration-interest-20200826-p55pir)

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/nz-oil-gas-fight-goes-annual-meeting

LOLLLLLLLL. Christ I needed a good laugh today and by God I got one!

[blackcap]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/nz-oil-gas-fight-goes-annual-meeting

LOLLLLLLLL. Christ I needed a good laugh today and by God I got one!

Hi MistaTea, whats the gist of the article? No longer am subscribed to the NBR.... cheers.

[fish]

Hi MistaTea, whats the gist of the article? No longer am subscribed to the NBR.... cheers.

I need a good laugh too(after reading the annual report-so PC but I guess that is a sign of the times )

Some interesting changes in the ranking of the top 20 shareholders.

[Fabs37]

Some interesting changes in the ranking of the top 20 shareholders.[/QUOTE]


Also thought, Quite an Interesting Renumeration List for Employees running the Co. from home,

Just in the Numbers & $s [ 18 paid between 110000 to 3/4 of a million ]

[fish]

Some interesting changes in the ranking of the top 20 shareholders.


Also thought, Quite an Interesting Renumeration List for Employees running the Co. from home,

Just in the Numbers & $s [ 18 paid between 110000 to 3/4 of a million ][/QUOTE]

Can this kind of remuneration in the current climate be justified?
What are so many employees actually doing?

[Fabs37]

Can this kind of remuneration in the current climate be justified?
What are so many employees actually doing?[/QUOTE]

Going by theire ad nausa repeated Mantra, Management is trying hard to create Wealth for S/Hs,
Maybe a Large Share of the renumaration is for trying hard?
Btw;: hope no one comes to any HARM going too hard though
.
For Shouldering this Laborus Burden, the top Man untill suxcessfull /not, needs to get by on $30OOO.00 gross per week.

[mistaTea]

Hi MistaTea, whats the gist of the article? No longer am subscribed to the NBR.... cheers.

Just talks about how there is a push to get more independent directors on the board. A noble enough intention, but will ultimately get nowhere.

Also discusses how Mr Dunphy and Ms Sharif are standing for election. They have zero chance of getting on The Board.

Though the SoA was a fiasco - personally I have put that all behind me now. Would I prefer for Dr Archer to no longer be on The Board? Sure. Does her still being on The Board cause me sleepless nights? No.

All I care about right now is Ironbark.

OGOG will use their blocking vote to maintain the status quo. Any notion that protest votes by minority shareholders are going to somehow shame OGOG into doing 'the right thing' is fanciful imo and more a distraction than anything else. With a little luck, after this AGM, there will be no more 'noise' from Mr Dunphy and co. That is probably fanciful thinking on my part though!

There are also advantages in having OGOG run the show - they do have expertise in the industry and are well connected. Adding brand new people to The Board who have little to no real knowledge of the O&G industry is not something I would personally want.

Ultimately the system we have works - there are protections for minority shareholders. They offered to buy our equity... I, and a more than sufficient number of others said "no thanks". Yes there were things we did not like about the approach (i.e. the fanciful 5% probability of Ironbark success...) but the deal did not go ahead, and to be fair to OGOG they left it at that.

...and now I want to participate in the Ironbark drill (of the century!) with all of my business partners without feeling like I need to find new opportunities to try to rub their noses in it.

Just my personal view point for what little it is probably worth.

But hey, we are probably only about 5 or 6 weeks from The Drill! WHOO HOOO!!

[CD_CHCH]

Well said mistaTea - you've summed it up nicely.

[mistaTea]

Cue seeing a little price action.

According to the markets, Cue is valued today at ~NZ$136M, but NZO is only NZ$106M.

The sooner we get that ASX listing the better - there will be fairly big interest in Cue and NZO in Aussie as we start drilling. Both from investors and speculators.

[Getty]

or, just get Ogg to start posting on this thread!

[fish]

Cue seeing a little price action.

According to the markets, Cue is valued today at ~NZ$136M, but NZO is only NZ$106M.

The sooner we get that ASX listing the better - there will be fairly big interest in Cue and NZO in Aussie as we start drilling. Both from investors and speculators.

NZO holds 50.04% of Cues shares (valued now at$68 million )but not reflected at all in the market valuation of NZO.
One could assume that there is no appetite for any risk on the NZX or perhaps investors have been put off by the only 5% chance of successful drill at Ironbark proclaimed by the so called Independent Directors(re-appointed by OGOG against the vote of minority shareholders)
It is expected that NZO will list on the ASX by Xmas.
With Ironbark being drilled at that time it would be a reasonable prediction that NZO market valuation will follow the same trend as CUE ie possibly double .
Would be a nice Xmas present

[mistaTea]

NZO holds 50.04% of Cues shares (valued now at$68 million )but not reflected at all in the market valuation of NZO.
One could assume that there is no appetite for any risk on the NZX or perhaps investors have been put off by the only 5% chance of successful drill at Ironbark proclaimed by the so called Independent Directors(re-appointed by OGOG against the vote of minority shareholders)
It is expected that NZO will list on the ASX by Xmas.
With Ironbark being drilled at that time it would be a reasonable prediction that NZO market valuation will follow the same trend as CUE ie possibly double .
Would be a nice Xmas present

Is it really expected to take that long for the ASX listing to finalise fish?

I re-read Andrew’s comments - “before the end of Calendar 2020”. I hope the listing comes in long before Xmas - we have been a dead duck on the NZX for some time now.

Cue shares are Probably going to keep going up from here. It’s not inconceivable that they could have a market cap anywhere between NZ$150-200M during the drill. Maybe higher.

If the market was behaving rationally you would expect NZO to be in the NZ$200-250 range then ($1.20 - $1.50 per share).

Not a market prediction (I don’t do that). Just pointing out that if NZO price action was to behave in a similar way to what is expected for CUE then the near-term SP movement could/should be significant.

[mistaTea]

or, just get Ogg to start posting on this thread!

Well, Infratil are more likely to try a takeover of NZO than Sky TV, that’s for sure! Haha!

[blackcap]

Is it really expected to take that long for the ASX listing to finalise fish?

I re-read Andrew’s comments - “before the end of Calendar 2020”. I hope the listing comes in long before Xmas - we have been a dead duck on the NZX for some time now.

Cue shares are Probably going to keep going up from here. It’s not inconceivable that they could have a market cap anywhere between NZ$150-200M during the drill. Maybe higher.

If the market was behaving rationally you would expect NZO to be in the NZ$200-250 range then ($1.20 - $1.50 per share).

Not a market prediction (I don’t do that). Just pointing out that if NZO price action was to behave in a similar way to what is expected for CUE then the near-term SP movement could/should be significant.

I have been mulling the Australian listing over but in the absence of a capital raise or offer of shares, I do not see how they can trade in Australia. OGOG are not selling, so it will be up to NZ shareholders to transfer their shares across to the Australian registry. I do not see many doing that. So its is quite possible that there are a bunch of bids for NZO on the ASX but no offers and no trades. Unless I am missing something.

[mistaTea]

I have been mulling the Australian listing over but in the absence of a capital raise or offer of shares, I do not see how they can trade in Australia. OGOG are not selling, so it will be up to NZ shareholders to transfer their shares across to the Australian registry. I do not see many doing that. So its is quite possible that there are a bunch of bids for NZO on the ASX but no offers and no trades. Unless I am missing something.

I suspect an Aussie placement is on the cards. Not sure how much OGOG might be prepared for their % holding to drop though.

We only have about $50M cash available to buy more assets. That won’t go very far so more money is needed to be able to do anything meaningful.

That money either has to come from a bank loan (harder to come by these days for fossil fuel companies) or new investment capital.

[Getty]

I have been mulling the Australian listing over but in the absence of a capital raise or offer of shares, I do not see how they can trade in Australia. OGOG are not selling, so it will be up to NZ shareholders to transfer their shares across to the Australian registry. I do not see many doing that. So its is quite possible that there are a bunch of bids for NZO on the ASX but no offers and no trades. Unless I am missing something.

I have mixed feelings also on the merits.
Been great for larger stocks like XRO, but NZ small caps seem to languish on ASX.
Just another cost to be listed, it fragments what is generally low trading between 2 markets,
There is nothing to stop Aussies buying NZO on NZX, in the same way Kiwis buy other shares on ASX, we already know that.

Perhaps NZO are being pre emptive of success with Ironbark, preparing to cap raise their share of development funding?

[fish]

I have mixed feelings also on the merits.
Been great for larger stocks like XRO, but NZ small caps seem to languish on ASX.
Just another cost to be listed, it fragments what is generally low trading between 2 markets,
There is nothing to stop Aussies buying NZO on NZX, in the same way Kiwis buy other shares on ASX, we already know that.https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=844461

Perhaps NZO are being pre emptive of success with Ironbark, preparing to cap raise their share of development funding?

Ironbark is likely to be successful (from independent advice I have sought )

[Getty]

I have mixed feelings also on the merits.
Been great for larger stocks like XRO, but NZ small caps seem to languish on ASX.
Just another cost to be listed, it fragments what is generally low trading between 2 markets,
There is nothing to stop Aussies buying NZO on NZX, in the same way Kiwis buy other shares on ASX, we already know that.

Perhaps NZO are being pre emptive of success with Ironbark, preparing to cap raise their share of development funding?

In the same way that Kiwis will be watching Cue, to get relative value back into NZO, Aussies will be doing the same, to get parity between the 2 stocks , and place their bets accordingly.

[Boffin]

According to the NZO page on Hotcopper, NZO’s Proposed ASX Listing is 25th September.

[mistaTea]

According to the NZO page on Hotcopper, NZO’s Proposed ASX Listing is 25th September.


Well spotted!

Def ideal to get this listing well and truly sorted before we spud.

[blackcap]

I have mixed feelings also on the merits.
Been great for larger stocks like XRO, but NZ small caps seem to languish on ASX.
Just another cost to be listed, it fragments what is generally low trading between 2 markets,
There is nothing to stop Aussies buying NZO on NZX, in the same way Kiwis buy other shares on ASX, we already know that.

Perhaps NZO are being pre emptive of success with Ironbark, preparing to cap raise their share of development funding?

I disagree with your assessment. There are a lot of Aussies that will not and do not buy stocks on the NZX. Our market is too small and insignificant to bother. But if NZO were listed in Australia they will have access to it. The demand for NZO will increase significantly with an Australian listing. Many Aussie institutions in their mandate also have that a stock must be listed on the ASX before they can invest in it. (not that I think Instos will buy into NZO initially).

[Onthemoney]

I have been in and out of this share for 30 odd years. I am back in. The Ironbark drill has really caught my imagination.

[Wiremu]

A good overview of Ironbark from the operator: https://www.bp.com/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/exploring.html

[jorge_telosa]

According to the NZO page on Hotcopper, NZO’s Proposed ASX Listing is 25th September.

volumes being traded today although small cause not enough sellers but enough to bring the gain to 5%.

[mistaTea]

volumes being traded today although small cause not enough sellers but enough to bring the gain to 5%.

Good to see the SP continue to trend upwards.

I am hopeful that when the ASX listing is complete we will see more interest from sophisticated Aussie investors and brokers who can buy shares on NZX and shunt them over to the ASX with relative ease.

They can always shunt them back to the NZX to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as they arise.

We could be as little as 4 weeks away from Ironbark...6 weeks maximum.

[mistaTea]

Currently only ~36,000 shares on offer for under 80c.

Only ~69,000 for sale in total.

Price needs to go a fair bit higher to entice people to start selling some shares this close to The Drill...

[CD_CHCH]

Assuming a successful drill at Ironbark what are people's predictions as to the share price?

[Getty]

How does $6 sound?.
I read a report that said NZO shareprice would multiply by a factor of 11.
At that stage the SP was 55c.

[blackcap]

Currently only ~36,000 shares on offer for under 80c.

Only ~69,000 for sale in total.

Price needs to go a fair bit higher to entice people to start selling some shares this close to The Drill...

Still if you think about it, totally irrational whether its this close to "The Drill" or 2 months away or 3 months away. "The Drill" was always going to happen, the timing is irrelevant. What is important is the outcome. If the NZO shareprice gets anywhere over 75 cents before "The Drill" I will be offloading a whole bunch I purchased under 60 cents for exactly this phenomena known as "The Drill" enthusiasm.

[blackcap]

How does $6 sound?.
I read a report that said NZO shareprice would multiply by a factor of 11.
At that stage the SP was 55c.

Andrew Jefferies was hinting at about $5 being possible or thereabouts if successful.

[Getty]

Still if you think about it, totally irrational whether its this close to "The Drill" or 2 months away or 3 months away. "The Drill" was always going to happen, the timing is irrelevant. What is important is the outcome. If the NZO shareprice gets anywhere over 75 cents before "The Drill" I will be offloading a whole bunch I purchased under 60 cents for exactly this phenomena known as "The Drill" enthusiasm.
Drill & Thrill

[Lion]

Assuming a successful drill at Ironbark what are people's predictions as to the share price?

Last October, Aussie analyst Peter Strachan estimated $6.51 for NZO and $1.31 for CUE if Ironbark is successful.

But what happens when/if they get a good strike? Won't they then need substantial money to develop the field? Banks aren't lending for fossil fuel projects (although the size of this, plus big-name BP might change their minds, perhaps)

Dare I mention a Capital Raise? I know some sh-ers here are also invested in NTL, including some big holders, including me (NOT a big holder!) And CRs there have been SP killers. Different companies, different situations, but a CR can drag down the share price. Perhaps if the SP is high enough and the glittering prize of Ironbark full of gas exciting enough, then a CR will be a different beast here.

What are people's ideas about selling down some shares before the result? I've heard some already here. I'm thinking of selling about a quarter of my NZO and CUE if the price gets high enough before the result comes in. I hope I don't have to sell NZO for under a dollar, but let's wait and see what happens.

Good luck everyone - exciting times ahead!

[Lion]

Still if you think about it, totally irrational whether its this close to "The Drill" or 2 months away or 3 months away.

When have markets ever been rational, Blackcap??

[mistaTea]

What are people's ideas about selling down some shares before the result? I've heard some already here. I'm thinking of selling about a quarter of my NZO and CUE if the price gets high enough before the result comes in. I hope I don't have to sell NZO for under a dollar, but let's wait and see what happens.

Good luck everyone - exciting times ahead!

The equation will be different for everyone based on their appetite for risk, what they think the upside is, how likely it is that the upside will be realised and what their average buy in price is.

But, in principle, if the markets present an opportunity to take some money off the table ahead of the results it makes sense for an investor to do so.

A guaranteed protection of your down side is more important than a possible upside that may or may not eventuate (no matter how great that upside might be).

That’s how I look at it anyway.

[Lion]

The equation will be different for everyone based on their appetite for risk, what they think the upside is, how likely it is that the upside will be realised and what their average buy in price is.

But, in principle, if the markets present an opportunity to take some money off the table ahead of the results it makes sense for an investor to do so.

A guaranteed protection of your down side is more important than a possible upside that may or may not eventuate (no matter how great that upside might be).

ThatÂ’s how I look at it anyway.

Yes, quite, mistaTea, I agree with all that. People will have different opinions and needs and appetite for risk.
I was in NZO (then NOG) for Mangatoa and Hector. I think they abandoned Mangatoa before drilling, but that was potentially a huge Taranaki gas field worth billions, they said. Then Hector was pretty huge too and I don't think I took any risk off the table for that one. With hindsight, maybe I should have.
There's a philosophy for handling this situation called BESBS - buy early, sell before spud (I had to look it up) That might suit some. Wouldn't one presume the SP would rise during drilling though?

'The drill of the century' coming up, eh?

[CD_CHCH]

How does $6 sound?.
I read a report that said NZO shareprice would multiply by a factor of 11.
At that stage the SP was 55c.


Andrew Jefferies was hinting at about $5 being possible or thereabouts if successful.

I'd be happy with either of those two prices - obviously the higher the better.

It's at this point that human nature and greed kicks in and I start to think damnit why didn't I buy more when they were cheaper...

[fish]

[QUOTE=Lion;844865]Last October, Aussie analyst Peter Strachan estimated $6.51 for NZO and $1.31 for CUE if Ironbark is successful.

But what happens when/if they get a good strike? Won't they then need substantial money to develop the field? Banks aren't lending for fossil fuel projects (although the size of this, plus big-name BP might change their minds, perhaps)

Dare I mention a Capital Raise? I know some sh-ers here are also invested in NTL, including some big holders, including me (NOT a big holder!) And CRs there have been SP killers. Different companies, different situations, but a CR can drag down the share price. Perhaps if the SP is high enough and the glittering prize of Ironbark full of gas exciting enough, then a CR will be a different beast here.

This is a concern I expressed in a meeting earlier this year .OGOG chuckled at my question-finance will be no problem if a good strike .

[mistaTea]

Wouldn't one presume the SP would rise during drilling though?

'The drill of the century' coming up, eh?

Always hard to predict what Mr Market might do at any given time.

If he is exuberant the SP could continue to sky rocket as speculators don’t want to ‘miss out’.

Or all of the real ‘price action’ could happen just on the lead up.

I remember when we drilled Kohakutai, during the weekly updates the company reported that gas was detected on the way down. That certainly pushed the SP up.
No discovery in the end though, but there was certainly interest during the drilling.

[LEMON]

Please excuse the lack of knowledge on oil and gas in NZ but I thought the current government was trying to ban oil exploration and with the likelihood, labour wins this election won't they push for the ban furthermore and want more renewables. Coming from and working a very oil dominated region in Scotland where new wells are drilled regularly with expectations of large deposits only to find nothing and a government trying to ban exploration (as far as I'm aware) wouldn't this make the NZO a far greater risk if you look to hold long term?

[SPC]

This drill is in Ausy my friend and they don't give a f..k about the impact of fossil fuel resources. Or much else..

[mistaTea]

Please excuse the lack of knowledge on oil and gas in NZ but I thought the current government was trying to ban oil exploration and with the likelihood, labour wins this election won't they push for the ban furthermore and want more renewables. Coming from and working a very oil dominated region in Scotland where new wells are drilled regularly with expectations of large deposits only to find nothing and a government trying to ban exploration (as far as I'm aware) wouldn't this make the NZO a far greater risk if you look to hold long term?

For NZ acreage yes, the risk is incredibly high. Even if National got in and reversed the ban (highly unlikely at this stage) I think the damage has been done to our reputation now as a stable place for exploration investment.

We hold a permit to the Barque Prospect in the South Island - 11Tcf prospect, and it probably won’t be drilled now due to the governments ban on new offshore permits.

However, Ironbark is in Australia - and the Australians take a much more pragmatic view to dealing with their climate obligations. As such, there is a lot more interest over there in companies like Cue (and hopefully NZO when we list there next week).

Plenty to be optimistic about right now as we are only a month or so away from a truly massive drill in friendly territory.

[LEMON]

So, in theory, NZO will drill in the international territory (in this case AU) with HQ based in Wellington I believe? Along with international partners, without any reprimand or Issues with NZ Government restrictions?

More or less it's a case of you can dig a hole in the neighbour's backyard just not our own?

[mistaTea]

So, in theory, NZO will drill in the international territory (in this case AU) with HQ based in Wellington I believe? Along with international partners, without any reprimand or Issues with NZ Government restrictions?

More or less it's a case of you can dig a hole in the neighbour's backyard just not our own?

Not in theory - that is what is happening.

[blackcap]

So, in theory, NZO will drill in the international territory (in this case AU) with HQ based in Wellington I believe? Along with international partners, without any reprimand or Issues with NZ Government restrictions?

More or less it's a case of you can dig a hole in the neighbour's backyard just not our own?

The way I read it, the NZ govt has banned anyon,e be they NZ or overseas based, from drilling holes in NZ territories. But not banned NZ companies from going about lawful business in other jurisdictions. That would be pretty hard to do.

[fish]

For NZ acreage yes, the risk is incredibly high. Even if National got in and reversed the ban (highly unlikely at this stage) I think the damage has been done to our reputation now as a stable place for exploration investment.

We hold a permit to the Barque Prospect in the South Island - 11Tcf prospect, and it probably won’t be drilled now due to the governments ban on new offshore permits.

However, Ironbark is in Australia - and the Australians take a much more pragmatic view to dealing with their climate obligations. As such, there is a lot more interest over there in companies like Cue (and hopefully NZO when we list there next week).

Plenty to be optimistic about right now as we are only a month or so away from a truly massive drill in friendly territory.

Just to be clear on Barque-it is an existing permit so not covered by the ban .
The problem is that the current government is naive and stupid as far as the need for gas .
We badly need more gas in the future for many industries and as a cleaner transition fuel .
The ban on new permits has had the effect of chasing away explorers so we are unlikely to get many existing permits drilled .
If we are going to get the gas we need in the future there has to be a change in government policy.
Who knows when this will happen -maybe when jobs are threatened-but I believe it must happen.