NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[SPC]

I believe it's Cue who are digging not NZO so no 'climate morality issues' to see here from NZo, we're just looking over the fence.
Pity looney Lab didn't see Barque as nice and shovel-ready friendly. More bang for buck there than a bungy operation and nil $$ to put down either. Risk free!
Didn't back NZ inc when they could have.
Importing indonesian coal for Huntley instead...real smart.

[mistaTea]

I believe it's Cue who are digging not NZO so no 'climate morality issues' to see here from NZo, we're just looking over the fence.


That is incorrect. NZOG hold a direct 15% equity stake in Ironbark. BP is Operator - but NZOG is participating in this drill directly, make no mistake.

When you add in our half of Cue's share of the equity, NZOG effectively have a ~25% equity stake in Ironbark. We own a quarter of the permit, come what may.

[fish]

I believe it's Cue who are digging not NZO so no 'climate morality issues' to see here from NZo, we're just looking over the fence.
Pity looney Lab didn't see Barque as nice and shovel-ready friendly. More bang for buck there than a bungy operation and nil $$ to put down either. Risk free!
Didn't back NZ inc when they could have.
Importing indonesian coal for Huntley instead...real smart.

There are lots more examples of this governments ineptitude through inexperience and principles they cannot fulfil

https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/opinion/300102177/decommissioning-of-umuroa-fpso-and-offshore-tui-oil-field-a-massive-opportunity-for-taranaki-firms

I would not be surprised if we are importing au gas in 2030 not to mention all the petrol and diesel we will need from overseas with a big loss in Nz jobs

[LEMON]

Where there is black gold there is demand.
Considering NZ is expected to have huge landmass submerged underwater you'd expect large pockets of fossil fuels all around the region bearing on the depth of the wells to be drilled.
I don't believe explorers have been chased away, it's only the government is trying to push for renewables which one day will likely be the future, giving NZ a greater start in a future that one day will be the change. Oil is very much needed and it's difficult to tell people who live in poverty that renewable energy is the way forward (Vladimir Putin puts this in the great context in a press conference about Greta Thunberg on her climate change speech) and people are willing to dig that sticky black stuff right out the ground in some of the most torn out war bent counties in the world.
If in the future the ban on oil is lifted in NZ and there are large pockets surrounding the islands you can bet your bottom dollar it won't be long till large investors start poking their fingers around.

I appreciate your responses, it's a little different here in NZ and getting to understand the politics, regions and products can sometimes seem like a silly question to yourself from me is maybe something I haven't been here in NZ to witness or understand personally.

Thanks, guys

[fish]

[QUOTE=LEMON;845007]Where there is black gold there is demand.
Considering NZ is expected to have huge landmass submerged underwater you'd expect large pockets of fossil fuels all around the region bearing on the depth of the wells to be drilled.
I don't believe explorers have been chased away, it's only the government is trying to push for renewables which one day will likely be the future, giving NZ a greater start in a future that one day will be the change.

The push for renewables is essential to reduce greenhouse gas and global warning which are increasing at dangerous rates .
This change needs considered government intervention .
Intervention in this governments term have not considered or consulted with Industry .
Industry needs and wants gas as a transition fuel .
We will be importing more fossil fuel unless government acts with consultation and clarity .
They have certainly lost my vote due to their principled but inept consideration of future energy needs

[Davexl]

The push for renewables is essential to reduce greenhouse gas and global warning which are increasing at dangerous rates .
This change needs considered government intervention .
Intervention in this governments term have not considered or consulted with Industry .
Industry needs and wants gas as a transition fuel .
We will be importing more fossil fuel unless government acts with consultation and clarity .
They have certainly lost my vote due to their principled but inept consideration of future energy needs

"Industry needs and wants gas as a transition fuel ."

I think you have got the balance 'bang-on' fish with both the need for renewables into the future, and the need for gas as a transition fuel.

Seems to me that neither Labour or National are going to get this right, but maybe if New Zealand First
gets back in, some balance in the debate will prevail.

Perhaps in the next coalition agreement between Labour & NZ First ?

Meantime I'm all-in on the Ironbark drill, bought all the outstanding shares on Friday around
the .70 cent level. Maybe paid a bit much but we will see, especially after the NZO listing in Aust...

[mistaTea]

A poster on HC has been tracking the movements of Ocean Apex...

Seems to think the drill could start earlier than anticipated.

[RTM]

No rush, the later the better. More time to speculate, dream, ramp etc.

[mistaTea]

No rush, the later the better. More time to speculate, dream, ramp etc.

Not many shares on offer for sale so low volumes, but up to 72c today.

If the ASX listing goes live as planned this Friday, mayhap we will break 80c.

NZO should have a larger Market Cap than Cue. Yet Cue has a MC of NZ$135 and NZO is only NZ$118.

As soon as the ASX listing goes live there is an immediate arbitrage opportunity for Cue shares. You can get cheaper Cue shares just buy purchasing NZO.

If NZO only increases to equal the current Market Cap of Cue, that would be the equivalent of ~82c/share right there.

[blackcap]

As soon as the ASX listing goes live there is an immediate arbitrage opportunity for Cue shares. You can get cheaper Cue shares just buy purchasing NZO.



That exists currently for Australian investors, if they wish to invest the time and get a broker that will deal on the NZX.

It exists for us right now too... (might have to tell my mate who has a few Cue shares its a good time to swap).

[mistaTea]

That exists currently for Australian investors, if they wish to invest the time and get a broker that will deal on the NZX.


It does not exist for Australian instos that are not allowed to invest in companies only listed on small exchanges like the NZX.

That hurdle goes away on Friday.

[blackcap]

It does not exist for Australian instos that are not allowed to invest in companies only listed on small exchanges like the NZX.

That hurdle goes away on Friday.

Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

[mistaTea]

Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

The lack of liquidity could be an issue for some.

But this is a huge drill, and there is money to be made. I think there will be interest.

[fish]

Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

ACC understand the value of NZO .
During the SoA their minimum price to exit was 85 cents.
It could be a lot more now.

[Ripping]

A poster on HC has been tracking the movements of Ocean Apex...

Seems to think the drill could start earlier than anticipated.

I've been looking at this ( https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8753005 ) for the last couple of days, I haven't seen it move yet. Looks like there is about 80-100nm to sail to get to Ironbark.

[mistaTea]

ACC understand the value of NZO .
During the SoA their minimum price to exit was 85 cents.
It could be a lot more now.

Yeah, it would be a fair bit more now.

In theory, based on a pure probability for Ironbark anything under $1.20/share makes sense to buy.

This ignores Kupe and the $50M of cash available in the bank.

If you say that, conservatively, a discovery was worth $800M for NZOG...and there is likely a 25% probability of success, then it would imply an exploration value of up to $200M (~$1.20 per share).

Could be higher of course depending on what you think a strike is worth as well as probability of success.

Now I doubt the SP would get anywhere near $1.20 per share pre-drill (or even during the drill).

But for companies that want some exposure to Ironbark, you could happily pay 85c per share and be getting a good deal from a pure probability perspective.

[blackcap]

If you say that, conservatively, a discovery was worth $800M for NZOG...and there is likely a 25% probability of success, then it would imply an exploration value of up to $200M (~$1.20 per share).
.

That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.

I expect NZO shares to possibly get to 80 cents pre announcement of pass/fail but not much higher. I will be selling a portion anywhere over 75 cents. It will be interesting to see the impact of the ASX listing.

[mistaTea]

That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.


LOL, yes the infamous 5%.

I asked Andrew Jeffries in a meeting about that, and what he really thought the probability of success was.

I won’t share what he said on here because I did agree that everything discussed in said meeting would be confidential.

But I will say that my scoffing at the 5% probability during the SOA was not completely lunatic!

And remember, NZOG never said 5%. It was their independent report, created by a group of people with zero expertise in exploration assets.

[Lion]

That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.


I expect NZO shares to possibly get to 80 cents pre announcement of pass/fail but not much higher. I will be selling a portion anywhere over 75 cents. It will be interesting to see the impact of the ASX listing.

From Ironbark partner Beach's AGM last year: "We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays."

You might be selling your portion this week, blackcap, the way things are going. I'm hoping for a dollar before the result. Each to their own, of course. Good luck.

[blackcap]

From Ironbark partner Beach's AGM last year: "We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays."

You might be selling your portion this week, blackcap, the way things are going. I'm hoping for a dollar before the result. Each to their own, of course. Good luck.

Thanks Lion, sorry I should clarify my position. I have a core holding of NZO which I will not be selling and will be participating in the Ironbark drill. I too believe Ironbark has a better than 5% chance of success. I purchased a whole heap more shares at 60 cents and under the last month or two with the intent to sell them because of a phenomena called "thrill of the drill" that sometimes pushes up a share price unrealistically. If it did not eventuate, there was no risk this time as the company is pretty much a cash shell. So its heads I win, tails I break even. The Australian listing was an unforeseen bonus.
So when I say I will be selling once over 75, I am talking about the trading portion purchased for this very reason.

[Getty]

Hell, what a difference 2 weeks makes, todays ann, that drill commence mid October, instead of what some thought was start Oct, caused the price to "crash' 6.3%

[Davexl]

Hell, what a difference 2 weeks makes, todays ann, that drill commence mid October, instead of what some thought was start Oct, caused the price to "crash' 6.3%

Bugger - there goes some of my premium at 70c buy...

[Getty]

No panic
I reckon that could turn out to be the best investment you have ever made.

[Davexl]

No panic
I reckon that could turn out to be the best investment you have ever made.

Not panicking, just a little pissed off...general market conditions look a bit dodgy with US not necessarily getting 2nd stimulus coming thru according to Bloomberg today.

Seems to affect Aussi more than NZ - we'll see. Looking forward to Aussi listing on Friday, wondering if i should have waited and bought on ASX instead for the better liquidity (for ultimate exit reasons), such a damn issue on NZX these days but supposedly getting a little better for on-market trades.

Maybe need to have a full broker again as backup for the occasional off-market trade.
I am newish with actual drill strategy but NZO has been good for me in the past. Fascinating with the drill coming up for sure...

[Getty]

I have a feeling that Ironbark will be "the one", but even if it isn't, they will discover sufficient hydrocarbons to drill future wells in that prospect.
So people won't be sellers, but buyers.

[mistaTea]

I have a feeling that Ironbark will be "the one", but even if it isn't, they will discover sufficient hydrocarbons to drill future wells in that prospect.
So people won't be sellers, but buyers.

And don’t forget, Neo didn’t realise he was “The One” either until right at the end of the first movie after he had taken one hell of a beating from A Smith.

There is hope for us yet...

[RTM]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360294

I find this a bit ironic.

“We believe the Company will benefit from access to the ASX, where interest in upstream oil and gas remains strong, and the market tends to understand our activities, valuing them realistically."

given not so long ago they were urging us to give our company away.

[fish]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/360294

I find this a bit ironic.

“We believe the Company will benefit from access to the ASX, where interest in upstream oil and gas remains strong, and the market tends to understand our activities, valuing them realistically."

given not so long ago they were urging us to give our company away.

It does signify a change -they now want to increase the SP and in doing so do admit the NZ market valuation is not realistic.
I can speculate why but feel its best not too.

[mistaTea]

A couple of optimists are offering to sell some shares for 94c and 94.5c!

Is that you Blackcap? :t_up:

[blackcap]

A couple of optimists are offering to sell some shares for 94c and 94.5c!

Is that you Blackcap? :t_up:

Haha no not me. I am waiting for a possible run up when "The Drill" gets closer. Waiting for some volume on the bid side.

Note that no Aussie interest so far from insto's or other.

Just a note, now that NZO is also listed in Australia, Aussie Insto's can also purchase NZO shares on the NZ market is my understanding. (those that have it in their mandate that they must purchase stocks listed in Australia).

[fish]

Haha no not me. I am waiting for a possible run up when "The Drill" gets closer. Waiting for some volume on the bid side.

Note that no Aussie interest so far from insto's or other.

Just a note, now that NZO is also listed in Australia, Aussie Insto's can also purchase NZO shares on the NZ market is my understanding. (those that have it in their mandate that they must purchase stocks listed in Australia).

I am vastly overweight in NZO.
May have to transfer a lot to AU in case I decide to slightly reduce my holding should the price get close to my value

[Davexl]

I am vastly overweight in NZO.
May have to transfer a lot to AU in case I decide to slightly reduce my holding should the price get close to my value

Thinking about doing the same thing, got the form from the broker this morning - liquidity...
But also thinking that NZO may suffer a bit of upside price compression being on the ASX
with the international downturn. ASX overall seems more affected by international considerations
than the more 'sheltered' NZX. Pity the prices are linked, but liquidity should be better...

[blackcap]

I am vastly overweight in NZO.
May have to transfer a lot to AU in case I decide to slightly reduce my holding should the price get close to my value

Hi fish, you will not need to transfer any to Australia. The arbers will make sure the price here in NZ matches the price in Australia by +- 1 cent.

[mistaTea]

If Mr Market behaves more rationally once the ASX trading starts tomorrow, NZO should end up with a Market Cap higher than Cue.

[Lion]

If Mr Market behaves more rationally once the ASX trading starts tomorrow, NZO should end up with a Market Cap higher than Cue.
Really, mistaTea?? I did some quick arithmetic that suggests you are being rather optimistic here.
NZO's MC is NZ $117m or A$108m. To get up to equal Cue's MC of A$135m, it would need to climb by $27m which is a 25% increase. That implies a NZ shareprice of about 86c or A80c
Or have I missed something? I hope you are right - would you care to explain your reasoning here please?

[mistaTea]

Really, mistaTea?? I did some quick arithmetic that suggests you are being rather optimistic here.
NZO's MC is NZ $117m or A$108m. To get up to equal Cue's MC of A$135m, it would need to climb by $27m which is a 25% increase. That implies a NZ shareprice of about 86c or A80c
Or have I missed something? I hope you are right - would you care to explain your reasoning here please?

I am not making any predictions here in terms of what the SP will do...

I am simply stating that NZO is a more valuable company than Cue.

This is the case because we own half of Cue, have $50M in the bank ready to invest (and no debt), 4% of Kupe and a 15% direct interest in Ironbark (our total interest in Ironbark is ~25% when you add in half of Cue’s share).

So I am simply pointing out that if Mr Aussie Market says that Cue is worth A$122M...then if he is behaving rationally he should value NZO at some number higher than that. How much higher - I leave to him. But it should be higher.

What ACTUALLY happens with NZO’s SP from tomorrow is another story!

[fish]

Hi fish, you will not need to transfer any to Australia. The arbers will make sure the price here in NZ matches the price in Australia by +- 1 cent.

Thanks Blackcap
I will hold tight and watch very closely
Tomorrow will be very interesting
Will traders on ASX sell CUE to buy NZO as Mista Tea logic suggests might happen ?
Whatever happens the Ironbark drill may encourage a sp rise so I will be patient if need be-and I only want to sell a few if the price is right

[digger]

My 2 cents worth is that not much of anything will happen tomorrow,but spread that out over two weeks and it could be a different story.Have seen that happen before and then we look back and ask why did it not happen right off. My take on that is it just takes a small amount of time for the fact that NZO is on the asx to sink in.
Now the more interesting question is why are we listing on the ASX market.I can come up with just as many reason for not listing as going ahead with listing. However from ogog posible thiking my hint is that OGOG is positioning themselves in case the 5% chance of success turns into 100%.
Good luck to all holders and especially myself.Since TUI nzo has had no drilling success and that is why the SP is worth less than the money in the bank.What a wake up call it will be to the nz investment community that values nZO as a non starter.From my point of view success at Ironbark will be a last laugh worth as much as the money itself.[well not really but you know what i mean]
Cheers and buckle up

[rooster]

With this 'thrill of the drill' how come Beach energy isn't getting more interest? It's looking good value and they are net cash.

[Ripping]

The Ocean Apex platform has not moved from its current position. The Norman Leader (I believe this is one of two support ship/Tugs for the O.A.) sailed to port a couple of days ago for a brief 12 hour (or so) visit, and when last seen on the map its was heading back to the Ocean Apex - about 20nm out - it should have arrived by now. I get the idea final preparations are being made for the O.A. to sail to the Ironbark propect, and perhaps will be underway within a week.
Trust me when I say I have no idea what I'm talking about, just trying to interpret vessel movements from the comfort of the couch.

[Getty]

I would like to share the optimism re Aussie listing.today.

My gut feeling tho, is the reaction could be;
Fair suck of the sav mate, do you Kiwis really think you can come over here & gas up our market?

It could take Cue down a bit, which would be a double edge sword for NZO,

All this will be very short term tho.
As always, there will be a large pool of cash that wont be put on the table until drilling actually commences.
Then some media coverage to a wider audience, not just us party faithful, of the true potential & value of this well, then the rocket will launch, & some will be asking them selves , why did I not buy more, and why did I sell so soon, like now.

[mistaTea]

I would like to share the optimism re Aussie listing.today.

My gut feeling tho, is the reaction could be;
Fair suck of the sav mate, do you Kiwis really think you can come over here & gas up our market?

It could take Cue down a bit, which would be a double edge sword for NZO,

All this will be very short term tho.
As always, there will be a large pool of cash that wont be put on the table until drilling actually commences.
Then some media coverage to a wider audience, not just us party faithful, of the true potential & value of this well, then the rocket will launch, & some will be asking them selves , why did I not buy more, and why did I sell so soon, like now.

Yeah I am not sure anyone should be expecting the SP to rocket up to $1 today just because the ASX listing goes live.

I think the ASX listing will be a net positive - but interest in NZO (and a corresponding increase in quoted value) will increase steadily as we approach the drill, and then hopefully some more once drilling starts.

We could be as little as 3 weeks away now!

[Lion]

The first buyer has just appearred on the ASX, wanting 35k shares at 65c. Hmm, too early to draw anything from that.
Yes, Getty, I think the excitement is yet to come (and SP increase)!

[Boffin]

The first buyer has just appearred on the ASX, wanting 35k shares at 65c. Hmm, too early to draw anything from that.
Yes, Getty, I think the excitement is yet to come (and SP increase)!

Just me trying to double my holding....

[Boffin]

It will be hard finding any sellers on the ASX. My holdings were transferred from Computershare AU to NZ back in 2016. After a week, I am still waiting for a reply from them about transferring the shares back again. Good job I don’t want to sell them..... probably be the same for all other Oz holders !

[Davexl]

Thought there might be a bit more interest on the ASX? Looks like Digger was right...

Looks like the company profile could do with an update to mention Ironbark
with maybe a company announcement on Ironbark, similar to the recent NZX one...?

[Boffin]

Wow, somebody bought 10k @ .75c on the ASX

[Getty]

And thats only the opening batsman

[Boffin]

About NZ$0.81

[mistaTea]

About NZ$0.81

Yep, NZO now valued at approx the same as Cue.

NZO is more valuable than Cue so I would expect the price to increase further from here over time.

[mistaTea]

Lookit,

Cue MC = NZ$132M
NZO share of Cue = NZ$66M.

Cash in the bank free for investment = NZ$50

4% of Kupe...reserves were recently lifted significantly. But let's be conservative and say that our 4% is maybe worth NZ$15M.

Well, $66M + $50M + 15M = $131M. About the same as Cue.

Then you take into account our 15% direct interest in Ironbark...a massive drill that is due to begin in about 3 or 4 weeks. Everyone will have their different assumptions on what that could/should be worth...but whatever that number is it goes on top of the $131M.

Which is why I am adamant that NZO should be valued higher than Cue if Mr Aussie Market is behaving consistently/rationally. Which he does not always do!! :eek2:

[Davexl]

I'm seeing 75c in Aust, 72c in NZ - Arbitrage anyone?

[BigBob]

The current bid is Aussie is 67c, which is about 72c in NZ.... No arbitrage...

[fish]

The current bid is Aussie is 67c, which is about 72c in NZ.... No arbitrage...

ASX market average trade today is 75.04-about 80 cents

[mistaTea]

AU77c on the ASX! Low volumes traded, but that is still ~NZ82c at current exchange rates.

If the NZX stays asleep and volumes + pricing picks up on the ASX I may transfer a few over during the thrill.

[blackcap]

Looks like the arber that is selling in Australia at 75 just bought some back in NZ at 73. Once volumes increase the price disparity will disappear soon enough.

[fish]

Looks like the arber that is selling in Australia at 75 just bought some back in NZ at 73. Once volumes increase the price disparity will disappear soon enough.

I think you are right going by the change in volume.
The arber is making 7 cents per share traded so may be back for more

[airedale]

Does that take in to account exchange rate difference and slippage?

[fish]

Does that take in to account exchange rate difference and slippage?

Only rough estimates but it indicates NZO is being valued higher in Australia.
Average price today was about the same in AU dollars on ASX as it was on NZX in NZ dollars-so arbiters could have made the exchange rate difference .

[LEMON]

500,000 shares, limit order set by someone at $1.300.

[Boffin]

Surprising, sellers came in at the ASX open as low as A$0.68......

[Ripping]

The Ocean Apex appears to be underway.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8753005

[mistaTea]

Brief write up about the O&G potential in NZ.

Election 2020 - Fact or Fiction: Could NZ become the North Sea of the south?
https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12370675

Even if by some miracle National could form a coalition, and reversed the ban right away - that does not mean international companies will
Come flooding back to the market. These things take time and I imagine they will be very very wary.
What if Labour got back in 3 short years later and started issuing bans again?

[fish]

The Ocean Apex appears to be underway.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8753005

Thanks for the posting.
A small rise in VWAP today .
I wonder if its getting near its destination.
The start of the drill often induces a rise in SP.
I cannot update its position on your link without subscribing.
It would be much appreciated if you could update progress

[fish]

The Ocean Apex appears to be underway.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8753005

I can find no evidence that its heading to Ironbark
Said to be moored
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:1534406/mmsi:538001747/imo:8753005/vessel:OCEAN_APEX

[digger]

I can find no evidence that its heading to Ironbark
Said to be moored
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:1534406/mmsi:538001747/imo:8753005/vessel:OCEAN_APEX

According to Hopcopper OA is underway to Ironbark. Left a few hours ago.

[mistaTea]

According to Hopcopper OA is underway to Ironbark. Left a few hours ago.

Yeah, according the the info they shared it may have already arrived by now...

[Lion]

According to Hopcopper OA is underway to Ironbark. Left a few hours ago.
I'm pretty sure it's only the support vessel Far Senator that's on the move at this stage, not the rig.

[mistaTea]

I'm pretty sure it's only the support vessel Far Senator that's on the move at this stage, not the rig.

Isn’t the Far Senator the tug boat?

[digger]

Isn’t the Far Senator the tug boat?

maybe the chain broke and the tug arrived by itself.I hate to admit it but on the farm I have done something similiar at times. Well while we wait a bit of humor.

[Lion]

mistaTea - I'm not certain, but there is no positive indicaton that the OA itself is on the move. Sure, if the Senator is the tug boat, then that seems logical the rig is also on the move (unless the chain broke!) But it would have been a pretty quick trip for the rig, wouldn't it?
There's a poster on HC who has a paid, up-to-the-minute service of the rig's whereabouts. He hasn't posted yet to say it's on the move.
Ah well, we should know soon enough what the story is, and it has to be happening pretty soon.
Exciting times!

[Lion]

Ah, there's a new HC post by gimo211, who has the paid service. Says the rig is almost there!
Great news, I'm glad I was wrong!

[digger]

Ah, there's a new HC post by gimo211, who has the paid service. Says the rig is almost there!
Great news, I'm glad I was wrong!

So what was the holdup? Maybe the chain did break.
For a drill like this one it is nice to be alive and taking part.

[mistaTea]

Latest post on HC has the OA moored at Ironbark.

Should be an announcement this week as to when drilling begins.

BOOM!!

[blackcap]

Latest post on HC has the OA moored at Ironbark.

Should be an announcement this week as to when drilling begins.

BOOM!!

And on Cue.....


(no pun intended)

[mistaTea]

And on Cue.....

Should start drilling by Monday 26 Oct at the absolute latest.

More likely start at some point in the previous week.

[blackcap]

Should start drilling by Monday 26 Oct at the absolute latest.

More likely start at some point in the previous week.

That means I have about 2 weeks to sell my trading stock. Better not forget about that.

[Ripping]

I was second guessing myself after I said the rig was underway, because after I saw movement in the tracking with a flotilla of ships around it, there was 'radio silence' on vesselfinder for the next 7 days. But going back to the site today the rig does appear to have made destination and is moored. Should be getting daily announcements from the Co. soon as to the progress of drilling.

EDIT: first announcement today from NZO - Rig handed over last 1600hrs Friday. ~ another 7 days from now to "well spud".

[mistaTea]

That means I have about 2 weeks to sell my trading stock. Better not forget about that.

Barely a murmur on the NZX after the announcement.

Will be interesting to see what (if anything) happens on the ASX.

[BWH]

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/bp-mobilising-ocean-apex-rig-for-ironbark-drilling/

This is a good site for offshore news.

[peat]

Im with you guys on this via BPT who have even more than NZO at 21%

[blackcap]

Im with you guys on this via BPT who have even more than NZO at 21%

Hi Peat, would it be fair to say though that a discovery, although good for BPT, will not dramatically do much to the SP as their capitalisation is at $3b compared with NZO and CUE at $0.1b?

Don't get me wrong, exciting times all round.

[peat]

Hi Peat, would it be fair to say though that a discovery, although good for BPT, will not dramatically do much to the SP as their capitalisation is at $3b compared with NZO and CUE at $0.1b?

Don't get me wrong, exciting times all round.

absolutely and that is a good thing from my perspective , and fits in a lot better with my own personal trading strategy.

[Getty]

And I would think that in the event of a successful well, BPT have the capital & size to commercialise it, without diluting their existing shareholders too badly.

[airedale]

Has anyone got that chart handy, the one that shows a resources company's SP rising steeply before the drill then topping out and dropping while the company sort out their cash to capitalise on the find, then rising again before production.

[fish]

Has anyone got that chart handy, the one that shows a resources company's SP rising steeply before the drill then topping out and dropping while the company sort out their cash to capitalise on the find, then rising again before production.

I would have doubts about such a chart applying to NZO and this drill .
There has not been a steep rise before the drill-a small rise only .
We are told success is likely to be binary.
My take on this is that if gas is found its so huge that the sp could multiply tenfold .
A huge find means no problem sorting out finance .

[mistaTea]

A huge find means no problem sorting out finance .

So very true.

Plus the ~NZ50M of nzo money sitting in the bank unallocated right now would go a long way towards covering our share of any development costs!

[Davexl]

Thought there might have been a bit more liquidity in Aust, bugger all for now.
Glad i didn't transfer my shares over to ASX at this point...Any comments?

[LEMON]

Any word on the IronBark drill. I can only find that they have clearance to start the drill some point in October and Apex is in place, I would imagine it's underway now?

[LEMON]

10 days to arrive from the day of mobilization which was roughly on the 12th of Oct, so arrival on the 22nd and drilling to start end of October weather permitting I think

[Lion]

LEMON, I'm pretty sure the rig arrived at Ironbark on the evening of 12th October.
That 'mobilisation' word is some sort of drillers jargon - don't think it means actually moving it.
I think it means preparing to spud, and that may be quite soon, a day or two perhaps.

There's quite good info on the Hot Copper Aussie chat site : https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/nzo/?keywords=NZO

[LEMON]

LEMON, I'm pretty sure the rig arrived at Ironbark on the evening of 12th October.
That 'mobilisation' word is some sort of drillers jargon - don't think it means moving it.
I think it means preparing to spud, and that may be quite soon, a day or two perhaps.

There's quite good info on the Hot Copper Aussie chat site : https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/nzo/?keywords=NZO

Thanks.

It does say on the hot copper "the rig is now being mobilised to iron bark-1 well location" which to me means it hasn't arrived on location yet (12th of Oct) and if it's saying on a different article it's being mobilised on the 12th also and it will take up to 10 days that states it's not on the location of the well yet. If the hole is being drilled it wouldn't be mobilised but drilling of the well has been started, no?

[Lion]

Well, LEMON, I'm not claiming to know exactly what's going on, but gimo211 who has paid access to vessel positions said on 12/10 on HC that the Ocean Apex had arrived at Ironbark, then the same guy in a recent post tonight says:

Current position by satellite of Ocean Apex seems a bit different to the coordinates provided earlier. They changed the drilling location slightly.

Latest rig movements suggesting dynamic positioning preparation. My guess: spud announcement tomorrow or on Tuesday...

[mistaTea]

Well, LEMON, I'm not claiming to know exactly what's going on, but gimo211 who has paid access to vessel positions said on 12/10 on HC that the Ocean Apex had arrived at Ironbark, then the same guy in a recent post tonight says:

Current position by satellite of Ocean Apex seems a bit different to the coordinates provided earlier. They changed the drilling location slightly.

Latest rig movements suggesting dynamic positioning preparation. My guess: spud announcement tomorrow or on Tuesday...

Based on the timelines given, we could get a spud notice as early as tomorrow.

Certainly by the end of the week.

[Getty]

Shhhh, be quiet, whats that noise I can hear?

Oh, whats that vibration I'm feeling through my feet?

Ah, it can only be one thing, the spudding in of the Ironbark well, on its way down to the glorious gas of Carnarvon, all 15 trillion cubic feet of it!

[nztx]

Shhhh, be quiet, whats that noise I can hear?

Oh, whats that vibration I'm feeling through my feet?

Ah, it can only be one thing, the spudding in of the Ironbark well, on its way down to the glorious gas of Carnarvon, all 15 trillion cubic feet of it!


Aha Getty - I was wondering about that vibration I'm feeling as well ;)

[airedale]

Like the Beach Boys song...."good vibrations".:)

[Onthemoney]

Like the Beach Boys song...."good vibrations".:)

I have been in and out of NOG/NZO for years. What % are on this airedale?

[Getty]

the Boys at Beach Petroleum will enjoy that vibe.

Wouldn't it be nice.

Fun fun fun,

for a successful well

Its just a matter of time.

And your dreams come true.

Make it big.

Dance Dance Dance.

Celebrate the news, in

Endless Harmony,

Forever, but

Hang on to your Ego

[Getty]

Heck, someone's cashed in their chips down to 70c.

No fresh spuds for them!

[Getty]

Must've been a bot losing its bottle...

[nztx]

It must be time to be adding more to the stockpile .. huh ;)

[mistaTea]

No spud announcement today but has to be next week.

Beach announced their quarterly results today and confirmed Ironbark still on track to begin drilling at the end of October (next week).

Results to be announced in the March 2021 Quarter.

[peat]

No spud announcement today but has to be next week.

Beach announced their quarterly results today and confirmed Ironbark still on track to begin drilling at the end of October (next week).

Results to be announced in the March 2021 Quarter.

yeh they also said

a targeted measured depth of ~5500metres.


and because NZO hasnt had the best of luck with drills and we need to pump ourselves up a bit - this is from that Beach report.

Beach participated in 17 wells where drilling operations were completed – all 17 in the Cooper Basin – at asuccess rate of 94%

[Getty]

Drilling, now thats a bit boring??

Lets hope it augers well.

Maybe too deep for some?

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/227990

[Getty]

This Spuds taking a while to sprout

[Getty]

I'll be getting Agria if they take much longer

[blackcap]

Just talks about how there is a push to get more independent directors on the board. A noble enough intention, but will ultimately get nowhere.

Also discusses how Mr Dunphy and Ms Sharif are standing for election. They have zero chance of getting on The Board.

Though the SoA was a fiasco - personally I have put that all behind me now. Would I prefer for Dr Archer to no longer be on The Board? Sure. Does her still being on The Board cause me sleepless nights? No.

All I care about right now is Ironbark.

OGOG will use their blocking vote to maintain the status quo. Any notion that protest votes by minority shareholders are going to somehow shame OGOG into doing 'the right thing' is fanciful imo and more a distraction than anything else. With a little luck, after this AGM, there will be no more 'noise' from Mr Dunphy and co. That is probably fanciful thinking on my part though!

There are also advantages in having OGOG run the show - they do have expertise in the industry and are well connected. Adding brand new people to The Board who have little to no real knowledge of the O&G industry is not something I would personally want.

Ultimately the system we have works - there are protections for minority shareholders. They offered to buy our equity... I, and a more than sufficient number of others said "no thanks". Yes there were things we did not like about the approach (i.e. the fanciful 5% probability of Ironbark success...) but the deal did not go ahead, and to be fair to OGOG they left it at that.

...and now I want to participate in the Ironbark drill (of the century!) with all of my business partners without feeling like I need to find new opportunities to try to rub their noses in it.

Just my personal view point for what little it is probably worth.

But hey, we are probably only about 5 or 6 weeks from The Drill! WHOO HOOO!!

Sorry for the very long response time. Appreciated your comments here. Are you not a little bit concerned by the approximately $8m pa "administration" costs that NZO are running through when they are pretty much a holding company?

[mistaTea]

Sorry for the very long response time. Appreciated your comments here. Are you not a little bit concerned by the approximately $8m pa "administration" costs that NZO are running through when they are pretty much a holding company?

Hey BC. See the activities report? Looks like next week is the BIG ANNOUNCEMENT :D

With regards to your comments...it's not that I am not concerned at all or oblivious to what is going on. I absolutely agree that Management either need to jump around a lot more to justify the high Admin expense, or slash costs to reflect our business size.

Paying our CEO $750K seems outrageous, as one example, given not a Hell of a lot has been happening. When you consider that Martin Stewart from Sky only gets about double that - and his business still generates over $1M per week in Owner Earnings it is crazy that our CEO gets paid so much.

They have been slow to deploy the available funds (~NZ$50M) for investing, and Christ only knows what is taking so long.

The point I was making is that, given where we are with Ironbark, these issues are 'small fries' relative to the opportunity we face right now - and that is why I am reasonably Zen about things carrying on as they are for the next 3 months while we drill and appraise Ironbark. OGOG are running the show, and they are comfortable with the current Admin spend - and unfortunately that is both the long and short of it.

[fish]

Drilling is expected to start shortly in the Ironbark prospect in the Carnarvon Basin, 170 kilometres offshore from Karratha in Western
Australia. The Ocean Apex rig intake process is continuing, but delayed by a few days due to some intake actions that require closing
out prior to drilling commencing.
Weekly drilling updates will be published on the NZX and ASX.
The well will be drilled in water depths of ~300 metres, to a total depth of around 5500 metres, making Ironbark-1 one of the deepest
wells ever drilled in Australia. The well is expected to take 70-90 days to drill and will be the first test of the Ironbark gas prospect.
The prospect is approximately 50 kilometres from the existing North West Shelf LNG infrastructure. New Zealand Oil & Gas has a 25.7
per cent interest in the well, comprising a 15% direct interest and its 50.04% holding in subsidiary Cue Energy, which holds 21.5%.
Read an interview with operator BP here: https://tinyurl.com/NZOGIronbark

[blackcap]

Hey BC. See the activities report? Looks like next week is the BIG ANNOUNCEMENT :D

With regards to your comments...it's not that I am not concerned at all or oblivious to what is going on. I absolutely agree that Management either need to jump around a lot more to justify the high Admin expense, or slash costs to reflect our business size.

Paying our CEO $750K seems outrageous, as one example, given not a Hell of a lot has been happening. When you consider that Martin Stewart from Sky only gets about double that - and his business still generates over $1M per week in Owner Earnings it is crazy that our CEO gets paid so much.

They have been slow to deploy the available funds (~NZ$50M) for investing, and Christ only knows what is taking so long.

The point I was making is that, given where we are with Ironbark, these issues are 'small fries' relative to the opportunity we face right now - and that is why I am reasonably Zen about things carrying on as they are for the next 3 months while we drill and appraise Ironbark. OGOG are running the show, and they are comfortable with the current Admin spend - and unfortunately that is both the long and short of it.

Cheers for the reply mistaTea. Yes totally excited about the BIG ANNOUNCEMENT!! Have sold my excess NZO at 73 a few weeks ago. Holding onto the core holding for the potential Ironbark. Like you, I could probably retire if it comes in :)

What I do not get is the CEO expense. But also what the hell is NZO doing with a Legal Counsel on its payroll. That seems even more outrageous. Now the problem I have is that these people on the NZO payroll are being paid well but what are they actually doing. NZO is not an operator. It is not doing anything. They are basically a holding company. There was an accusation at the last AGM that those on the NZO payroll were working for OG interests. That does worry me a lot. If Ironbark does not come in $8m a year will not last long. There is no independent oversight to monitor these expenses.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362387

Little did I know, but while I was enjoying a lovely brunch at Cafe Baku in Taupo on Saturday - we were breaking ground at Ironbark!

[fish]

The well is currently at 407m MDRT as planned. The cementing of the 36” conductor has been completed. Once the cement is dry, the Operator will begin drilling the 26” hole.

The Ironbark well will test the Triassic Mungaroo Formation with multiple sand objectives. The reservoir has been explored nearby at comparably shallower depths and includes discoveries at the Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin gas condensate fields. The primary target is at a planned depth of 5668 TVD subsea metres in water depths of 298 metres. The well is expected to take around 85 days to complete operations.

CEO Andrew Jefferies commented that “It has been a long journey to get to this point, we are excited to be breaking ground on this frontier well”

I wonder how long before the 1st objective is met

[mistaTea]

The well is currently at 407m MDRT as planned. The cementing of the 36” conductor has been completed. Once the cement is dry, the Operator will begin drilling the 26” hole.

The Ironbark well will test the Triassic Mungaroo Formation with multiple sand objectives. The reservoir has been explored nearby at comparably shallower depths and includes discoveries at the Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin gas condensate fields. The primary target is at a planned depth of 5668 TVD subsea metres in water depths of 298 metres. The well is expected to take around 85 days to complete operations.

CEO Andrew Jefferies commented that “It has been a long journey to get to this point, we are excited to be breaking ground on this frontier well”

I wonder how long before the 1st objective is met

They are anticipating it taking 85 days to complete the whole shebang (upper end of the 70-90 day timeframe given earlier).

That would take us through to 24 January 2021.

So early Feb at the latest is when we should know if a discovery has been made.

[Lion]

They are anticipating it taking 85 days to complete the whole shebang (upper end of the 70-90 day timeframe given earlier).

That would take us through to 24 October 2021.

So early Feb at the latest is when we should know if a discovery has been made.

Oops, possible typo there with the month, mistaTea? Something in the way of your typing hand maybe? (I reference your post on HC)

Won't they know if there's gas there as they are drilling? I thought that was what wire-logging was all about.

Great to be drilling at last. SP hasn't reacted much.

[mistaTea]

Oops, possible typo there with the month, mistaTea? Something in the way of your typing hand maybe? (I reference your post on HC)

Won't they know if there's gas there as they are drilling? I thought that was what wire-logging was all about.

Great to be drilling at last. SP hasn't reacted much.

Haha! Yes indeed, in my 'excitement' and ecstasy I got confused. That will serve me right for trying to type with my non-stroking hand!

They are wire-logging on the way down, so we will get indications of gas before 85 days (if they exist).

But I remember that when we drilled Kohakutai we got some decent sniffs of gas all the way down until we plugged and abandoned - no discovery.

[fish]

Haha! Yes indeed, in my 'excitement' and ecstasy I got confused. That will serve me right for trying to type with my non-stroking hand!

They are wire-logging on the way down, so we will get indications of gas before 85 days (if they exist).

But I remember that when we drilled Kohakutai we got some decent sniffs of gas all the way down until we plugged and abandoned - no discovery.

I feel the world has changed so much since Kohakutai .
I even googled it and got no results .
What I do know is that the predictive value of wire-logging has improved .
The objectives are very deep .
Ocean Apex is powerful and has the technology.
Reports are weekly .
We may not therefore get an indicative sniff until we hit the indicative target .
The American election is an irrelevant diversion to the SP in a years time .
BP have the experience to know what they are doing-my expectation is that they know this is more likely than not to be successful .
Success should be measured in confirming a potential resource .
Further drills may need to be performed before the resource is tapped-this drill is planned to be plugged and left .
Analysis,negotiation etc could take years .
OGOG will be circumspect before deciding whether to make another takeover offer after the drill .
If successful key shareholders will consult together to decide their response should an offer be made .
I doubt if they will be as pragmatic as before.
Personally I am happy to wait a decade if necessary for the value of a gas find to be realised.
It costs nothing to leave the gas and NZO has the cash to allow this .

[mistaTea]

Personally I am happy to wait a decade if necessary for the value of a gas find to be realised.
It costs nothing to leave the gas and NZO has the cash to allow this .

First things first, let's make a discovery!

Figuring out whether to hang on and participate in turning the discovery into a producing asset (a process that could take many, many years...) or whether to sell our equity to someone else (BP may offer us an attractive price) to realise the large gains now will be a wonderful problem to have!

In July 2019 Peter Strachan valued a discovery @ $6.51 per share for NZO (or $1.074B). That is just for Ironbark and does not take into account existing assets or recent discoveries (like Mahato).

OGOG will decide what we do (sell, or hold the asset to production) - in this 'best case' scenario it will be interesting to see what they do.

It will also be interesting to see how high the SP goes in the meantime, given NZO is not a liquid stock.

[Fabs37]

[QUOTE=mistaTea;854000]First things first, let's make a discovery!

Yes the old saying springs to mind, counting the Chickens etc,etc.

Takes me back 20 YEARS and no doubt others too, still on this Forum.

2000 Ellerslie R/course Convention Cntr.

Tony R.=== Lets dream a little, concerning the drilling of Hochstetter
and the possible Billion $ Company maker, S/P was about the same 66-67 cents

Lets hope for a diff. outcome this time.

[mistaTea]

Good meeting I thought, sounds like we have some decent options IF ironbark results in a discovery.

I liked Andrew's analogy about sucking into an Olympic Pool with a long straw and trying to figure out how big it is.

Let's hope they can buy a producing asset with upside very soon - we have been waiting a while. Don't want to be hasty and overpay - but enough is enough. Buy something or, if you can't, give the shareholders the cash via tax free capital return (30c/share).

Ms Sharif's comments were measured - a stark contrast to Mr Dunphy imo. Neither candidate has a hope in Hell of being elected, but if we were to elect a new independent director I would want someone who can have a constructive relationship with The Board - and, in my view, Mr Dunphy can't.

Anyway, onwards and upwards. Andrew made a comment that it would only be "a month and a bit" until we knew if there was a discovery. Did I hear that right? The drilling announcement said 85 days was expected - so that would take us to January?

Or are they likely to know if they have discovered something before the drilling has finished?

[BigBob]

Anyway, onwards and upwards. Andrew made a comment that it would only be "a month and a bit" until we knew if there was a discovery. Did I hear that right? The drilling announcement said 85 days was expected - so that would take us to January?

Or are they likely to know if they have discovered something before the drilling has finished?

Didn't follow the meeting, but the comment is also on the last page of the Annual Meeting Presentation released today...: "We have a month and a bit to wait before we find out if there is a discovery there. If it is a success, it will be a company changer."

So maybe an early xmas present...?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/362566/334269.pdf

[blackcap]

Good meeting I thought, sounds like we have some decent options IF ironbark results in a discovery.


Anyway, onwards and upwards. Andrew made a comment that it would only be "a month and a bit" until we knew if there was a discovery. Did I hear that right? The drilling announcement said 85 days was expected - so that would take us to January?

Or are they likely to know if they have discovered something before the drilling has finished?

I like the options Andrew outlined if a discovery. Month and a bit is 40-50? days. Maybe they get indications of gas shows on the way down? I am no expert so comments on this issue welcomed. So going on 50 days it will be before Christmas potentially!!

[mistaTea]

I like the options Andrew outlined if a discovery. Month and a bit is 40-50? days. Maybe they get indications of gas shows on the way down? I am no expert so comments on this issue welcomed. So going on 50 days it will be before Christmas potentially!!

Hopefully Santa turns up this year and shows me his incredibly large sack!

[mistaTea]

Resolution 5:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Mr J Dunphy be elected as a director
For: 2,171,596 [1.75%] Against: 122,270,212 [98.25%] Abstain: 1,308,824
The resolution was therefore not carried.
Resolution 6:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Ms S Sharif be elected as a director
For: 2,514,318 [2.01%] Against: 122,426,833 [ 97.99%] Abstain: 809,481
The resolution was therefore not carried.

Even the vast majority of minority shareholders voted AGAINST.

My view is that minority holders just want to move forward now, bigger things to focus on like Ironbark and other opportunities. I hope that the 'noise' goes away now.

[Sideshow Bob]

Turned my XXXXXXS holding into XXXS holding on Monday.

Lets see how that turns out....... :huh:

[mistaTea]

write up in NBR: https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/acc-joins-call-nz-oil-gas-directors-quit

[digger]

Resolution 5:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Mr J Dunphy be elected as a director
For: 2,171,596 [1.75%] Against: 122,270,212 [98.25%] Abstain: 1,308,824
The resolution was therefore not carried.
Resolution 6:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Ms S Sharif be elected as a director
For: 2,514,318 [2.01%] Against: 122,426,833 [ 97.99%] Abstain: 809,481
The resolution was therefore not carried.

Even the vast majority of minority shareholders voted AGAINST.

My view is that minority holders just want to move forward now, bigger things to focus on like Ironbark and other opportunities. I hope that the 'noise' goes away now.

I didn't even bother with the vote or the AGM. As we sorted out last year there is no real vote unless the major holder stands back and lets the minor holders pick their own directors. Then we would have some chance of calling such an outcome independent. Guess it will take govt action to make any moves in that direction and until that happens we are at the mercy of the controlling shareholder.
The voting results are what was to be expected----in fact better as I saw no point in getting Dumphy in.


Now for that drill. If successful we may well all have to come together again to make sure our minor shareholders interest are looked after.
Cheers all and a very successful christmas

[Waikaka]

Great news that IronBark-1 has spudded, always an achievement getting these things consented and over the line. No matter what happens from here BP have done well, I think it is their first Australian operated exploration well for about 10 years so well done to Cue for sticking with farming it out for so long. First granted to Cue in 2012, so credit to Cue as well, got to admire their hustle.

Always exciting and wish all the best but just remember Ironbark-1 is significantly deeper North Rankin and Gorgon gas condensate fields and so has significant chance that reservoir quality is impacted with reduced porosity and permeability. I suspect this could well delay the results of the drill, as further research will be needed.

So while Ironbark-1 has it risks it is always good to finish on a high note. Australia has pretty thorough worst case planning outlines in their environmental drilling plans. They are always a good read as the engineers look at a worst case blow out scenarios. Conveniently for shareholders you can all think of this as a best case scenario (not the blow out but the flow rates). Of course you wont see these rates as the choke and drill string thin greatly by the time you get to reservoir and is no where near 12 inch hole but shows that in a best case these reservoirs can really deliver.

They used the Goodwyn gas field as the closest to Ironbark-1 and came out with:
" Assuming that the well is flowing through unobstructed 12 ¼” open hole and 13 5/8” casing string, it is estimated that the initial flowrate is 91,793bbl/day (condensate rate), 11,504bbl/day (water rate) and 1,541MMscf/day (gas rate)."

Taken from page 28 of https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/country-sites/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/exploring/ironbark-drilling-environment-plan.pdf

Maui-2 first flowed at 40MMscf/d.

[fish]

Great news that IronBark-1 has spudded, always an achievement getting these things consented and over the line. No matter what happens from here BP have done well, I think it is their first Australian operated exploration well for about 10 years so well done to Cue for sticking with farming it out for so long. First granted to Cue in 2012, so credit to Cue as well, got to admire their hustle.

Always exciting and wish all the best but just remember Ironbark-1 is significantly deeper North Rankin and Gorgon gas condensate fields and so has significant chance that reservoir quality is impacted with reduced porosity and permeability. I suspect this could well delay the results of the drill, as further research will be needed.

So while Ironbark-1 has it risks it is always good to finish on a high note. Australia has pretty thorough worst case planning outlines in their environmental drilling plans. They are always a good read as the engineers look at a worst case blow out scenarios. Conveniently for shareholders you can all think of this as a best case scenario (not the blow out but the flow rates). Of course you wont see these rates as the choke and drill string thin greatly by the time you get to reservoir and is no where near 12 inch hole but shows that in a best case these reservoirs can really deliver.

They used the Goodwyn gas field as the closest to Ironbark-1 and came out with:
" Assuming that the well is flowing through unobstructed 12 ¼” open hole and 13 5/8” casing string, it is estimated that the initial flowrate is 91,793bbl/day (condensate rate), 11,504bbl/day (water rate) and 1,541MMscf/day (gas rate)."

Taken from page 28 of https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/country-sites/en_au/australia/home/who-we-are/exploring/ironbark-drilling-environment-plan.pdf

Maui-2 first flowed at 40MMscf/d.

Thanks for the very informative post and link .
I found the estimated flow rate based on Goodwyn on page 13 (not 28 )

[Waikaka]

Thanks for the very informative post and link .
I found the estimated flow rate based on Goodwyn on page 13 (not 28 )

Woops apologies for the mix up, I went with page number 28 of the pdf = page 13 in the report.

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/362769/334491.pdf

1.5km deep, great progress.

[blackcap]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/362769/334491.pdf

1.5km deep, great progress.

You beat me to the punch. That is great progress. I presume it slows down the deeper they get? And the first few hundred metres through water would have taken no time?

[mistaTea]

You beat me to the punch. That is great progress. I presume it slows down the deeper they get? And the first few hundred metres through water would have taken no time?

Oh is the target depth taken from sea level? Not where the ground begins?

I expect it will def slow down the deeper they go - a lot.

But as of now we have drilled 28% of the target depth! Fantastic to see things humming along nicely.

[blackcap]

Oh is the target depth taken from sea level? Not where the ground begins?

.

I have no idea to be fair. Just presuming it goes from sea level but I could be wrong.

Yes they are humming along nicely indeed.

[Ripping]

Oh is the target depth taken from sea level? Not where the ground begins?



Pretty sure the target depth is 5500m below sea FLOOR. Not a lot of drilling to be done to get through the initial 300m of water depth.

[Wiremu]

Pretty sure the target depth is 5500m below sea FLOOR. Not a lot of drilling to be done to get through the initial 300m of water depth.

Correct on 5500m below the seabed as the target depth - however the usual base for the drillers depth measurements is the distance from the drilling rig's rotary table, so includes the water depth.

[Ripping]

Ah yes you are correct Wiremu. I did google and the NZO drill updates are using MDRT .. so from the first announcement they had drilled around 107m bore depth + ~300m surface to seabed = 407m. Sounds a lot less impressive than drilling a 407m borehole in a day or two !

[fish]

Ah yes you are correct Wiremu. I did google and the NZO drill updates are using MDRT .. so from the first announcement they had drilled around 107m bore depth + ~300m surface to seabed = 407m. Sounds a lot less impressive than drilling a 407m borehole in a day or two !

If they are 1.5k deep must have drilled 1100 metres in a few days .
Looking forward to the progress announcement later this week.
Looks as if the stars are coming into alignment .
The market is slow to respond to the Biden win and the initial success of the Pfizer Vaccine .

[Sideshow Bob]

Ironbark Weekly Drilling Update As At 12 November 2020 NZT

13/11/2020, 9:00 amMKTUPDTEAs at 6:00 11 November 2020 (AWST) the Operator has advised that the Ironbark-1 well had reached a measured depth of 1811 metres.

In the past week, the BOP has been installed and tested and we began drilling the 17-1/2" x 21.2" hole.

The Ironbark well will test the Triassic Mungaroo Formation with multiple sand objectives. The reservoir has been explored nearby at comparably shallower depths and includes discoveries at the Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin gas condensate fields. The primary target is at a depth of 5668 metres TVD subsea in water depths of 301 metres. The well is expected to take around 85 days to drill.

Participants in WA-359-P are BP Developments Australia Pty Ltd (Operator, 42.5%), Cue Exploration Pty Ltd (21.5%), Beach Energy limited (21%) and NZOG (Ironbark) Pty Ltd (15%).

For further information please contact the Company on:
email enquiries@nzog.com

[fish]

2410 metres 2 days ago-should be about 1/2 way by now
Relative to previous recent trades a big seller at 0.695
I wonder why?

[RTM]

2410 metres 2 days ago-should be about 1/2 way by now
Relative to previous recent trades a big seller at 0.695
I wonder why?

Mr T wanting to buy more SKY shares ?
Yes...the announcements are economical with the info....and I don't know enough about it....should they be getting some indication from the type of material / rock they are encountering ? No idea.

[mistaTea]

Mr T wanting to buy more SKY shares ?


LOL!

No, I am waiting to hit the jackpot with Ironbark so I can take my gains and then team up with Ogg to launch a Sky TV takeover!

:t_up:

[Davexl]

Anyone have any idea at what depth to expect gas shows, and if they report them?

[Fabs37]

Yes...the announcements are economical with the info....and I don't know enough about it....should they be getting some indication from the type of material / rock they are encountering ? No idea.[/QUOTE]

The reservoir has been explored nearby at comparably
shallower depths and includes discoveries at the Gorgon, Goodwyn and North
Rankin gas condensate fields.

May give some indication???

[Lion]

Davexl - I spent some time trying to find what sort of depth they found hydrocarbons at Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin fields, but without success.
Those fields are pretty huge, and not very far from Ironbark, and if our current drilling intersected their zones, I'd imagine it would definitely be worth an announcement. Not that I am any sort of reservoir expert.
I'd assume a later production well could take h/c from multiple depths, couldn't it?
The really big prize is at 5668m though, as the announcements say.

[fish]

Davexl - I spent some time trying to find what sort of depth they found hydrocarbons at Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin fields, but without success.
Those fields are pretty huge, and not very far from Ironbark, and if our current drilling intersected their zones, I'd imagine it would definitely be worth an announcement. Not that I am any sort of reservoir expert.
I'd assume a later production well could take h/c from multiple depths, couldn't it?
The really big prize is at 5668m though, as the announcements say.

its in the srk consulting report-I have hard copy of this but cannot google it anymore.
Primary targets at tr19 and tr 17 levels-which on the page 9 diagram are massive and deeper than Gorgon/Goodwyn and around 5668m .
They mention secondary targets which do not appear relevant if the primary is unsuccessful.One of these is j29 at around 3000 metres but likely poor seal and gas escape .Another secondary target is TR 14 which is deeper at 6000m plus than the primary.

It would be really good if anyone could post the srk report as I only have it in black and white and would love to see the giant ironbark in red on page 9 !

[Davexl]

Originally Posted by Lion
Davexl - I spent some time trying to find what sort of depth they found hydrocarbons at Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin fields, but without success.
Those fields are pretty huge, and not very far from Ironbark, and if our current drilling intersected their zones, I'd imagine it would definitely be worth an announcement. Not that I am any sort of reservoir expert.
I'd assume a later production well could take h/c from multiple depths, couldn't it?
The really big prize is at 5668m though, as the announcements say.


its in the srk consulting report-I have hard copy of this but cannot google it anymore.
Primary targets at tr19 and tr 17 levels-which on the page 9 diagram are massive and deeper than Gorgon/Goodwyn and around 5668m .
They mention secondary targets which do not appear relevant if the primary is unsuccessful.One of these is j29 at around 3000 metres but likely poor seal and gas escape .Another secondary target is TR 14 which is deeper at 6000m plus than the primary.

It would be really good if anyone could post the srk report as I only have it in black and white and would love to see the giant ironbark in red on page 9 !

Thanks Lion & Fish! Will keep looking for the SRK report, maybe there is a cached copy somewhere. Thanks again...

[CD_CHCH]

Try this link to the Cue site - it contains a report by SRK Consulting:

https://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f5f14cff-748d-4755-85d5-69abf7b8ed25/NoticeofGeneralMeetingProxyForm

118 page PDF document - SRK report starts on page 58

[Davexl]

Try this link to the Cue site - it contains a report by SRK Consulting:

https://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f5f14cff-748d-4755-85d5-69abf7b8ed25/NoticeofGeneralMeetingProxyForm

118 page PDF document - SRK report starts on page 58

Nice work CD_CHCH - Thank you...

[Marilyn Munroe]

Left winger Martyn "Bomber" Bradbury is doing a happy dance on his blog with the announcement Beach are going to drop their Otago off-shore permit.

This makes it more difficult for NZ O & G to get a drill started in this frontier province.

http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2020/11/good-riddance.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[mistaTea]

Left winger Martyn "Bomber" Bradbury is doing a happy dance on his blog with the announcement Beach are going to drop their Otago off-shore permit.

This makes it more difficult for NZ O & G to get a drill started in this frontier province.

http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2020/11/good-riddance.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Yep, final nail in the Clipper coffin I would have thought.

[mistaTea]

Yep, final nail in the Clipper coffin I would have thought.

Should also point out that OGOG hold 37.5% equity in Wherry.

I expect NZO to make a similar announcement for Clipper. The policy setting has just made it impossible to drill in NZ.

The focus will be Australia now, highlighted by the re-listing on the ASX.

Still waiting to see what we are buying with our cash though. At the AGM Andrew assured us that the small fortune we pay management is worthwhile because it got us the farm in deal for Ironbark. That was a good outcome - but we need to see a bit more jumping around now if these attractive investment opportunities do indeed exist.

[Chippie]

Should also point out that OGOG hold 37.5% equity in Wherry.

At the AGM Andrew assured us that the small fortune we pay management is worthwhile because it got us the farm in deal for Ironbark. That was a good outcome - but we need to see a bit more jumping around now if these attractive investment opportunities do indeed exist.

This I find hard to believe. NZO management has been the worst I have ever experienced, years ago I was in the top 20 shareholders and a big believer. Over the years they have done absolutely nothing expect run the company and shareprice down. Lucky for me I managed to lock in some profits when the share price was >$1.50.

And the latest bunch are the worst of all especially after the buyout fiasco.

[Chippie]

But do hope they have success with the current drill. It would be very good for current shareholders. Good luck!

[fish]

Should also point out that OGOG hold 37.5% equity in Wherry.

I expect NZO to make a similar announcement for Clipper. The policy setting has just made it impossible to drill in NZ.

The focus will be Australia now, highlighted by the re-listing on the ASX.

Still waiting to see what we are buying with our cash though. At the AGM Andrew assured us that the small fortune we pay management is worthwhile because it got us the farm in deal for Ironbark. That was a good outcome - but we need to see a bit more jumping around now if these attractive investment opportunities do indeed exist.

Seems so stupid that the Greens/Labour would rather import coal than use our own natural gas .
Maybe NZ will one day import LNG from Ironbark(I am an optimist only as far as Ironbark ).
I guess its on the cards that NZO may move to Australia-looks like OGOG will not be staying here .
Could be a reason for the ASX listing-a more empathic government and investment and exploration .
OGOG knows that Natural Gas is the likely transition fuel that will be in more demand as the World moves to reducing greenhouse gases .

[mistaTea]

Seems so stupid that the Greens/Labour would rather import coal than use our own natural gas .
Maybe NZ will one day import LNG from Ironbark(I am an optimist only as far as Ironbark ).
I guess its on the cards that NZO may move to Australia-looks like OGOG will not be staying here .
Could be a reason for the ASX listing-a more empathic government and investment and exploration .
OGOG knows that Natural Gas is the likely transition fuel that will be in more demand as the World moves to reducing greenhouse gases .

Interesting thoughts fish.

If Ironbark does not result in a discovery, the SP of both Cue and NZO will fall significantly.

Perhaps a reverse takeover by Cue in that case will be on the cards? Net result a larger company just listed on the ASX.

Alternatively, management could distribute the Cue shares among NZO holders, and then liquidate the rest of NZO. Shareholders would still own a piece of Cue, and receive a one-off cash settlement from wrapping up NZO.
I am firmly of the view that Ironbark is NZO's 'last shot' at doing something material. Especially now that Barque and Toroa look like goners.
If we do not discover a significant pool of recoverable hydrocarbons, we simply do not have the size nor resources to start all over again in a meaningful way as we are.

Sale of our Kupe asset should pretty well cover our liquidation costs, management payouts etc. Which would leave ~50M of cash to be returned to shareholders (~30c/share). And then NZO shareholders can decide if they want to keep the Cue shares they receive, or sell them too.

I am still very bullish/optimistic about Ironbark - though I think it behooves one to understand your position on "what next?" in the event that this drill does not succeed.

[Davexl]

Interesting thoughts fish.

If Ironbark does not result in a discovery, the SP of both Cue and NZO will fall significantly.

Perhaps a reverse takeover by Cue in that case will be on the cards? Net result a larger company just listed on the ASX.

Alternatively, management could distribute the Cue shares among NZO holders, and then liquidate the rest of NZO. Shareholders would still own a piece of Cue, and receive a one-off cash settlement from wrapping up NZO.
I am firmly of the view that Ironbark is NZO's 'last shot' at doing something material. Especially now that Barque and Toroa look like goners.
If we do not discover a significant pool of recoverable hydrocarbons, we simply do not have the size nor resources to start all over again in a meaningful way as we are.

Sale of our Kupe asset should pretty well cover our liquidation costs, management payouts etc. Which would leave ~50M of cash to be returned to shareholders (~30c/share). And then NZO shareholders can decide if they want to keep the Cue shares they receive, or sell them too.

I am still very bullish/optimistic about Ironbark - though I think it behooves one to understand your position on "what next?" in the event that this drill does not succeed.


Thinking hard about the risks of Ironbark not succeeding and the impact on the share price. Your options on disposal possibilities are somewhat encouraging to stay in the game. Have read the SRK report also and think that at the end of the day, there are only so many chances to take the risk to win something this large in life, but sizing the level of risk to accept in a portfolio is no easy question. Risk / Reward are both High and Petro-Geology knowledge at depths being considered remain speculative, with many other farm-in players turning down the opportunity earlier, not that we know the reasons behind that (after confidential due diligence).

Still - I'm in!

[fish]

Thinking hard about the risks of Ironbark not succeeding and the impact on the share price. Your options on disposal possibilities are somewhat encouraging to stay in the game. Have read the SRK report also and think that at the end of the day, there are only so many chances to take the risk to win something this large in life, but sizing the level of risk to accept in a portfolio is no easy question. Risk / Reward are both High and Petro-Geology knowledge at depths being considered remain highly speculative, with many other farm-in players turning down the opportunity earlier (after confidential due diligence).
Still - I'm in!

Good to see you are still in .
I have a big investment riding on this -initially base on the preferred valuation in the SRK report (from memory the risked valuation was $350 million ) and subsequent estimated chances of success which were actually better than SRK estimated .
The CUE sp has nearly doubled this year and Beach had a big rise today.
I expected there would be a rise in NZO with progression of the drill and consequent less risk of failure .
I guess negative sentiment still clouds NZO valuation.
However Ironbark is in the hands of BP-and you can be sure they have a good blowout prevention system !
SRK estimated 50% chance of gas having been formed .
We know there is excellent reservoir properties and likely good seal .
I have been told from a reliable source that BP would not be doing this unless there was an approximate 1 in 2 chance success or better .
Cue estimate a 1 in 3 chance

[mistaTea]

I have been told from a reliable source that BP would not be doing this unless there was an approximate 1 in 2 chance success or better .
Cue estimate a 1 in 3 chance

Yeah and the technology has come so far, the odds of success are far more than they used to be.

No guarantee of commercial success of course, but it is fair to say that BP aren’t investing this kind of money for odds lower than 1 in 3 for a drill like this (and would probably have a higher threshold as your source suggests).

They wouldn’t be doing this for a 1 in 4 and certainly not a 1 in 20! (5%).

The lack of liquidity will probably continue to be a drag on the SP even in a success case unfortunately. The SP should theoretically go to $6.50 based on a valuation provided by an energy analyst last year. But I think that would only happen if NZO was liquid - investors need to know that they can sell their shares in the future without any delay or hassle.

[Getty]

Looks like the Beach Boys BPT, Asx, are feeling Good Vibrations.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like the Beach Boys BPT, Asx, are feeling Good Vibrations.

If it was Ironbark related, then would have expected NZO (or Cue) to see more of an uplift. NZO (with Cue holding) has a bigger share than Beach.

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/364055/336202.pdf

3km down what's gonna be a very deep hole...

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/genesis-announces-kupe-strategic-review?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Heads%20Up

Genesis looking to get out of Kupe!

[fish]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/364055/336202.pdf

3km down what's gonna be a very deep hole...

Looks like progress is rapid and smooth and now more than 1/2 way.

[digger]

Looks like progress is rapid and smooth and now more than 1/2 way.

A marathon is 26 miles. The half way point is 20 miles.If you have ever run one you will know what i mean.Same with well drilling.

[mistaTea]

A marathon is 26 miles. The half way point is 20 miles.If you have ever run one you will know what i mean.Same with well drilling.

Aint that the truth digger!

I foolishly ran the Auckland marathon a few years back. Never again.

The last 10km was absolute agony and my running speed dropped to a glorified jog.

[Getty]

lets hope there are no damp sponges thrown from the sidelines then, only glorious gas.

[nztx]

lets hope there are no damp sponges thrown from the sidelines then, only glorious gas.


Sensing any petroleum or gas molecules on the horizon from deep down yet - my friend .. or too early ? ;)

[digger]

Sensing any petroleum or gas molecules on the horizon from deep down yet - my friend .. or too early ? ;)

well I hope not. If you are getting gas molecules the seal must be leaking.Not a good sign as then it would be leaking for the last 100 million years so the well will be empty. Pukeko was like that.At the time it was drilled about 20 years ago it was claimed by NZO to have been the largest find in NZ. But it was just now an empty spent well.We were tens of millions of years too late with the drill on that one.

So I hope for no gas Molecules until we get there.That will be the first of many tiny steps we need to get a commerical find. When we do get to the target there could still be no gas molecules----no we won't go there......

[mistaTea]

We have now been drilling for exactly 30 days.

35% of the total 85 days anticipated.

In another fortnight, we will be just over half way (in terms of drill time, not distance).

Andrew made comments at the AGM about possibly having a result this side of Xmas. Does that sound right?

There would still be about a month or so to go of drilling by the time we hit Xmas so I would have thought that would be too soon?

[airedale]

I see some speculation today that NZO {among others} is mentioned as a possible buyer of the assets that Genesis are considering for sale.

[Sideshow Bob]

I see some speculation today that NZO {among others} is mentioned as a possible buyer of the assets that Genesis are considering for sale.

The cash in the bank isn't earning much for them.....although hopefully they need for Ironbark development.....��

[mistaTea]

I see some speculation today that NZO {among others} is mentioned as a possible buyer of the assets that Genesis are considering for sale.

Where did you see this?

[airedale]

The Australasian Trading Management daily newsletter.

[mistaTea]

The Australasian Trading Management daily newsletter.

Ok cheers.

If the price is right, a deal could make a lot of sense. The timeframes being touted means it could be 6 months or more before we know what (if anything) is happening here.

[Lion]

Andrew made comments at the AGM about possibly having a result this side of Xmas. Does that sound right?

There would still be about a month or so to go of drilling by the time we hit Xmas so I would have thought that would be too soon?
No-one's replied to your question, here or on HC. (P.S. - gimo did, sorry)
It doesn't sound right to me though.
You know him better than I do - do you want to ask him?

[mistaTea]

No-one's replied to your question, here or on HC.
It doesn't sound right to me though.
You know him better than I do - do you want to ask him?

I’ve only met him once - don’t know the man at all.

And I have emailed him twice with the same question. He never answers it.

He has replied to me about other stuff - but not this for some reason.

[Getty]

No one associated with the well, or otherwise, can make a valid guess about drill results.

If we are very lucky, we could by next Monday be told that hydrocarbons have been struck, followed up by an ann that it is 75metres of nett pay gas column,
Or, anytime after that till hitting target depth and @85 days from spud, ann.s that gas shows are evident, but evaluation of water cut, porosity, flow rates etc, commercial success may not be determined until 6 weeks after drill completion.

Until then, all tickets/ shareholdings are valid, and should not be thrown away!

[mistaTea]

No one associated with the well, or otherwise, can make a valid guess about drill results.

If we are very lucky, we could by next Monday be told that hydrocarbons have been struck, followed up by an ann that it is 75metres of nett pay gas column,
Or, anytime after that till hitting target depth and @85 days from spud, ann.s that gas shows are evident, but evaluation of water cut, porosity, flow rates etc, commercial success may not be determined until 6 weeks after drill completion.

Until then, all tickets/ shareholdings are valid, and should not be thrown away!

So in the meantime I should just stick with the SKT thread to be entertained by Ogg’s latest takeover theory?

[Getty]

Or get Ogg to breathe some life into the NTL thread.

[Getty]

As I have mentioned before, even if this well was deemed to be dry, valuable geotechnic data will be gathered, particularly from its depth, to decide whether to drill subsequent wells in the prospect area.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Some may say stopping oil and gas exploration and relying on an ageing fields with ageing equipment(1) is putting virtue ahead of practicality.

I disagree, we can resort to dirty Indonesian coal to keep light shinning on our pious governing climate change idealouges.

(1) https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/431939/problems-at-offshore-fields-lead-to-reduced-natural-gas-production

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Getty]

Ooooh Marilynnn

I love it when you talk dirty...

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZO/364461/336754.pdf

Wow! 3.8km!

These guys are going like the clappers. I thought things might slow down and we might only be at 3.3 or 3.4km.

Only about 1.8km until target depth.

[Getty]

Yes, They have got the bit between their teeth.

[Waikaka]

Worth noting the trickiest and most time consuming parts of drilling a well are not drilling ahead.

Tripping pipe gets longer and longer as the hole gets deeper, pumping cement gets harder as the drill pipe thins and formation more likely to break out.

It is often the casing points and running into open hole section that cause the hang ups and problems.

4054m bsb is the next casing point (12 1/4"), then 4979m bsb (12 1/4") and a short slim hole to finish from 5370m bsb (8 1/2"). Watch out for those depths as key milestones to pass.

[mistaTea]

From Stockhead.com.au...

Gas exploration in an LNG provinceMoving on to gas plays in Western Australia, Cue Energy (ASX:CUE) (https://stockhead.com.au/company/cue-energy-resources-cue/) is participating with a 21.5 per cent interest in the upcoming tier one Ironbark-1 well in WA-359-P within the Carnarvon Basin, offshore Western Australia.
The well, which is operated by UK supermajor BP, is aimed at testing the deep Ironbark prospect, which has best case prospective recoverable gas resources of about 15 trillion cubic feet of gas.
“The main reservoirs are the Mungaroo reservoirs, which are also seen at Gorgon. They are regionally extensive, they are very thick and very large at the Ironbark site,” chief executive officer Matthew Boyall told Stockhead.
Ironbark is mapped out over 140sqkm on very good seismic, which Boyall noted made it a world-scale prospect.
It is just 50km from existing infrastructure at the North West Shelf (NWS) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
“It would be simple to tie-in to the NWS as BP is a partner in the NWS, and we also saw a few weeks ago when Beach reported that the northwest shelf is opening up for tolling,” Boyall added, though he did not rule out the potential of supplying gas to other LNG projects.
Development in the event of a success is expected to be simple with a number of wells, a subsea tie back and a short pipeline being the only requirements to bring it into production.
While Cue already has oil and gas production, a success at Ironbark-1 could take the company’s value into the multiples and open up other permits.
Boyall pointed to the neighbouring WA-409-P that is operated by BP (80 per cent), with Cue holding a 20 per cent stake.
He said the permit had potential upside to Ironbark and could see a contingent well being drilled.
“If Ironbark proves up the deep Mungaroo reservoir concept that we’re looking at, Cue also has the adjoining WA-389-P permit, which contains a very similar structure,” Boyall said.

[Onthemoney]

From Stockhead.com.au...

Gas exploration in an LNG provinceMoving on to gas plays in Western Australia, Cue Energy (ASX:CUE) (https://stockhead.com.au/company/cue-energy-resources-cue/) is participating with a 21.5 per cent interest in the upcoming tier one Ironbark-1 well in WA-359-P within the Carnarvon Basin, offshore Western Australia.
The well, which is operated by UK supermajor BP, is aimed at testing the deep Ironbark prospect, which has best case prospective recoverable gas resources of about 15 trillion cubic feet of gas.
“The main reservoirs are the Mungaroo reservoirs, which are also seen at Gorgon. They are regionally extensive, they are very thick and very large at the Ironbark site,” chief executive officer Matthew Boyall told Stockhead.
Ironbark is mapped out over 140sqkm on very good seismic, which Boyall noted made it a world-scale prospect.
It is just 50km from existing infrastructure at the North West Shelf (NWS) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
“It would be simple to tie-in to the NWS as BP is a partner in the NWS, and we also saw a few weeks ago when Beach reported that the northwest shelf is opening up for tolling,” Boyall added, though he did not rule out the potential of supplying gas to other LNG projects.
Development in the event of a success is expected to be simple with a number of wells, a subsea tie back and a short pipeline being the only requirements to bring it into production.
While Cue already has oil and gas production, a success at Ironbark-1 could take the company’s value into the multiples and open up other permits.
Boyall pointed to the neighbouring WA-409-P that is operated by BP (80 per cent), with Cue holding a 20 per cent stake.
He said the permit had potential upside to Ironbark and could see a contingent well being drilled.
“If Ironbark proves up the deep Mungaroo reservoir concept that we’re looking at, Cue also has the adjoining WA-389-P permit, which contains a very similar structure,” Boyall said.

Hi mistaTea. Thanks for your insights. In what week do you think we will get more info beyond the standard depth they have drilled?

[mistaTea]

Hi mistaTea. Thanks for your insights. In what week do you think we will get more info beyond the standard depth they have drilled?

It’s possible that they might start reporting on any detection of elevated gas levels after the next casing point.

After the next CP, we are very near the primary target...

It is possible that we will have some news about the primary target this side of Xmas. But I am not too sure, and the total drill (including the secondary target) has a planned drill time of 85 days. Which would take it to 24 January 2021.

Either way, we are within 6 weeks or so of knowing if we have made a discovery.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364835

Another half a km drilled, switching over to the 12.25" drill bit. We will use this for another ~1km, when we reach another casing point and then switch to the 8.5" bit. Once that is done we are only ~300m from the Primary Target (though I imagine we would have had some gas indications well before we reach the PT - if any gas exists to be found).

With ~1.3km to go until we hit the Primary Target, it is possible that we could reach it by Christmas Day. Though more likely early in the New Year I think as there are bound the be delays and issues that need resolving the deeper we go.

[fish]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364835

Another half a km drilled, switching over to the 12.25" drill bit. We will use this for another ~1km, when we reach another casing point and then switch to the 8.5" bit. Once that is done we are only ~300m from the Primary Target (though I imagine we would have had some gas indications well before we reach the PT - if any gas exists to be found).

With ~1.3km to go until we hit the Primary Target, it is possible that we could reach it by Christmas Day. Though more likely early in the New Year I think as there are bound the be delays and issues that need resolving the deeper we go.

BP are putting their global expertise into this drill and will be trying to gain as much information as possible from this highly prospective exploratory drill .I spoke to experts during the week and they do not expect we will get information about the primary target until mid-january .
That is good news for me as will not be a distraction over the festive ,fun season .

[Lion]

That is good news for me as will not be a distraction over the festive ,fun season .

Each to their own, fish. For me, that would be the kind of distraction I think I could tolerate.

[mistaTea]

Each to their own, fish. For me, that would be the kind of distraction I think I could tolerate.

Agreed Lion!

I want to know what Santa has for me in his big red fuzzy sac this year!

I mean sack !!

[Getty]

Hopefully we will all have gas, after our Christmas feast!

[mistaTea]

12142

Excerpt from an article that was shared on HotCopper.

Citi estimates the value of a 15Tcf discovery at $9.2B (I am assuming that is AUD).

That figure seems about right when you consider Woodside paid AU$744M to acquire 50% of Pluto from Exxon (Pluto was ~4Tcf of gas, much smaller than Ironbark could be...and this transaction happened 6 years after production started, so remaining reserves would be down).

If Citi is right, and if Ironbark comes through @15Tcf (a lot of "ifs"!) then that would value NZO's ~25% equity at $13 or $14/share.

[Boffin]

Does that include NZOs holding of CUE mistaTea ?

[mistaTea]

Does that include NZOs holding of CUE mistaTea ?

Yes that includes the Cue holding.

When we take into account the portion of Cue that we hold, our total Ironbark equity is ~25%

[Davexl]

Excerpt from an article that was shared on HotCopper.

Citi estimates the value of a 15Tcf discovery at $9.2B (I am assuming that is AUD).

That figure seems about right when you consider Woodside paid AU$744M to acquire 50% of Pluto from Exxon (Pluto was ~4Tcf of gas, much smaller than Ironbark could be...and this transaction happened 6 years after production started, so remaining reserves would be down).

If Citi is right, and if Ironbark comes through @15Tcf (a lot of "ifs"!) then that would value NZO's ~25% equity at $13 or $14/share.

That would be totally gamechanging, (and life-changing for some of us on here):)
Let's hope Citi's analysts are right and the seismic data in the original report is solid.

[Boffin]

Yes that includes the Cue holding.

When we take into account the portion of Cue that we hold, our total Ironbark equity is ~25%

Thanks mistaTea. i have been buying on the ASX, such a good price, but when do i say enough..........!....?

[mistaTea]

Thanks mistaTea. i have been buying on the ASX, such a good price, but when do i say enough..........!....?

Unfortunately, volumes on the ASX are pretty much non-existent. This has surprised me as I really did think there would be significant interest in this drill by Aussie investors.

Given the enormous potential upside, I would have thought the stock would have started trading at AU75c and then kept increasing from there as the drill progressed. But, no.

Now we have this weird situation whereby CUE is valued as being worth $8M more than NZO?! Considering we own half of Cue, this seems very odd to me.

CUE Market CAP = AU$118M.
NZO share = AU$59M.
NZO Market Cap = AU$110M.
NZO Market Cap MINUS Cue share = AU$110M - AU$59M = AU$51M.

After taking into account the funds escrowed for Ironbark, remaining cash held in the bank that is attributable to NZO = $50M.

So even though Ironbark has the potential to transform NZO into a company worth more than $2B, and even though we are within 1km of reaching the Primary Target...according to Mr Market, NZO is effectively only worth the cash held in the bank?


If people want to buy cheap Cue shares to gain exposure, they should really be buying NZO at current prices.

[Davexl]

Thinking hard about the risks of Ironbark not succeeding and the impact on the share price. Your options on disposal possibilities are somewhat encouraging to stay in the game. Have read the SRK report also and think that at the end of the day, there are only so many chances to take the risk to win something this large in life, but sizing the level of risk to accept in a portfolio is no easy question. Risk / Reward are both High and Petro-Geology knowledge at depths being considered remain speculative, with many other farm-in players turning down the opportunity earlier, not that we know the reasons behind that (after confidential due diligence).

Still - I'm in!

That's the bit that still bugs me, I keep wondering what the Aussi punters might know that we mostly don't...

[mike2020]

I think its pretty simple. I invested in NZO pre the soa offer and it was actively traded around that time but last I looked you can barely buy or sell a parcel to buy lunch. CUE I invested in on the day they put the soa out there and I have no regrets. The info I gained around that time from here was invaluable and I appreciate that, if I wanted more or less NZO I could ALMOST be accused of manipulation (tongue in cheek).

[mistaTea]

That's the bit that still bugs me, I keep wondering what the Aussi punters might know that we mostly don't...

Yes, but at the current quoted value of the shares (effectively just cash in the bank as per my previous post), the market is essentially saying that Ironbark is worth $0.

That is very mysterious indeed. And I do not think that BP would be forking out $40M - $50M for their share of the drill for a prospect that was certainly worth $0!

Even if Ironbark only had a 5% chance (as per the number touted in the SOA)...and best reserve estimate is worth $9.2B. In theory the value of NZO's total share of the prospect today should be $115M (70c/share). That is in addition to the value of the existing business ($50M cash, 4% Kupe, 50.04% of Cue) which the market reckoned was worth ~$70 - 80M before NZO farmed into Ironbark.

So in theory, even at a low 5% success probability, the value of NZO should be $115M Ironbark + $70 to $80M Core Business value = $185M to $195M ($1.12 to $1.18 per share).

And of course, though we know that ultimate success is far from certain...the odds of Ironbark coming through are much higher than 5%.

[Fabs37]

Just curious, Success or Failure.

WHAT'S stopping the Companie from moving out of NZ and list elsewhere???

Also not much planned for the future it seems, so idling along like in the past??

[mistaTea]

Crackity, a former ST poster, shared this timely article with me.

Oh how things can go expensively wrong! And, on a probability point of view, remember we are more likely to read a article like this about Ironbark instead of a success story!

I am still optimistic though!

https://thewest.com.au/business/finance/much-gas-ado-about-nothing-as-palta-fails-ng-ya-354896.amp

[mistaTea]

Just curious, Success or Failure.

WHAT'S stopping the Companie from moving out of NZ and list elsewhere???

Also not much planned for the future it seems, so idling along like in the past??

If Ironbark does not succeed, I vote we liquidate. Absolutely nothing else going for the company imo.

[mistaTea]

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/australasia/284626/woodside-australian-exploration-spend/

References Ironbark:

"Ironbark-1, in permit WA-359-P in the Carnarvon basin and about 50 kms from the existing North West Shelf LNG complex, is expected to hit its target depth of 5,668 metres in second half January. If the probe confirms the 15 trillion cubic feet gas target it would be big news for BP and transformational for the other partners, which include Cue Energy, Beach Energy and New Zealand Oil and Gas."

[mistaTea]

Here is the full article which included the $9.2B Citi valuation...

https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/12122020145602-pdf.2735944/?filename=12122020145602.pdf

[fish]

Here is the full article which included the $9.2B Citi valuation...

https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/12122020145602-pdf.2735944/?filename=12122020145602.pdf

Which would make nzog (including its share of CUE ) valued at 2.4 billion in the event of success!
There is no logic that I can see why the NZO sp has not doubled as has the CUE sp in the past 8 months .
I wish it had as I keep being tempted to buy more .

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/365291

Casing and cementing took a whole week, we are 18 metres deeper than last week.

Now we push through with the 12 1/4 bit to the Target Depth...

[mistaTea]

Which would make nzog (including its share of CUE ) valued at 2.4 billion in the event of success!
There is no logic that I can see why the NZO sp has not doubled as has the CUE sp in the past 8 months .
I wish it had as I keep being tempted to buy more .

Yes it is really bizarre that the SP is sitting where it is when we are so close to the Target Depth. I would have expected it to be in the mid eighties at an absolute minimum.

I shared some thoughts on HotCopper recently that I will reproduce here...

*******************

I was doing some more number crunching yesterday...so check this lunacy out.

Cash sitting in the bank attributable to NZO holders =NZ$50M. That is AFTER taking into account the ~NZ$20M held in escrow for our portion of the Ironbark drill. And the company has ZERO debt.

CUE market Cap = AU$122M. That is NZ$130M. NZO share of that is NZ$65M.

Now this is where is gets super crazy...

NZO market cap is only NZ$115M.

If we subtract the cash held in the bank and our share of CUE, you get $115M - $50M - $65M = $0!!

So Mr Market is effectively saying that our 4% share of Kupe and our 15% directly held equity stake in Ironbark is worth a grand total of zilch.

[mike2020]

No one is arguing your math or position its shares on the market to buy or sell plain and simple. Put 500k @ .80 and see what happens.

[mistaTea]

No one is arguing your math or position...

Nor should they. After all, I am always right :D

[mistaTea]

Put 500k @ .80 and see what happens.

My question is, why aren't there loads of people buying @80c? And therfore creating a market?

You could be buying at $1 right now, and it would still make sense from a risk/reward perspective.

[mike2020]

Have you looked at the buy/sell at all?

[mistaTea]

Have you looked at the buy/sell at all?

Yes indeed.

[Getty]

My question is, why aren't there loads of people buying @80c? And therfore creating a market?

You could be buying at $1 right now, and it would still make sense from a risk/reward perspective.

Because the sheep have not the guidance of a 'broker' report, or a big insto buy in.
PEB was like a rudderless ship, until ANZ put in their $25M endorsement, and then coverage by 2 brokers, & Bloomberg article.

Perhaps if you posted under MR Tea Mighty Investment Trust, it would make a difference.
However it does mean that the little boys & girls can load up on cheap shares, till such shares make it to the radar of the big boys.

In the event of Ironbark success, It will be the big money that takes the SP to 11X what it is now, not us minnows who dive on the tasty morsels when we can.

[Getty]

I'm glad they have just done a pressure test on the Blowout preventer.

I reckon that is going to get a severe test in the coming weeks...

[mistaTea]

I reckon that is going to get a severe test in the coming weeks...

Stop turning me on you big flirt.

[Getty]

Prepare for Gastronomical proportions

[Davexl]

Out of date message

[nztx]

How many loose NZO shares are there out there after deducting majority stakeholders ? ;)

Can't be all that many of the 164 m issued on the loose & bound to be tightening
as the smart money starts to awake to things .. with SP creeping north ;)

From 2020 FY Report

OG Oil & Gas - 114.8 m = 69.86%

Total - Top 20 Holders - 133.9 m = 81.43%

Remaining Holders - 30.5 m = 18.57 %

She looks tighter than HLG's Share Registry & everyone will be well aware of what happens when
the spotlight goes on - should extremely favourable news come out .. ;)

Factor in Aussie punters potentially also looking at what's going on & what may occur if the Drilling turns up positive things ? ;)

[airedale]

Certainly volume has been steadily increasing for the last 6 months. 72898 shares traded yesterday compared to a few hundred on some days earlier in the year. Could be the usual pre drill punters, or someone with more serious plans.

[mistaTea]

Certainly volume has been steadily increasing for the last 6 months. 72898 shares traded yesterday compared to a few hundred on some days earlier in the year. Could be the usual pre drill punters, or someone with more serious plans.

Yeah, and damn near 19K on the ASX.

Low volume in the scheme of things, but quite high compared to the low volumes we have seen (many days no trades at all, which surprises me).

Enough to push the SP to AU$0.70.

[Fabs37]

If Ironbark does not succeed, I vote we liquidate.

Like your sense of humor MISTY TEA

[mistaTea]

If Ironbark does not succeed, I vote we liquidate.

Like your sense of humor MISTY TEA

I agree. Either liquidate or OGOG offer us a price based on a theoretical liquidation price and then they can keep the business if having NZO is still good for them based on whatever their plans are for this part of the world.

The only way I would possibly not want to liquidate is if they are able to purchase this amazing producing asset at a great price like they have been saying they will for the last two years.

[fish]

I agree. Either liquidate or OGOG offer us a price based on a theoretical liquidation price and then they can keep the business if having NZO is still good for them based on whatever their plans are for this part of the world.

The only way I would possibly not want to liquidate is if they are able to purchase this amazing producing asset at a great price like they have been saying they will for the last two years.

No point speculating on the worse.
You will feel excited if you look at the success of deep water GAS and what BP is achieving
eg this one is at 2000m water depth-
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/12/18/bp-reliance-start-gas-production-on-india-s-ultra-deepwater-kg-d6-field#:~:text=Located%20at%20a%20water%20depth,day %20(mmscmd)%20in%202021.

[Waikaka]

Shame to see OMV dropping East Coast/Wairarapa (PEP 57073) and Canterbury (PEP 50119) permits. OMV (and Shell for a bit in the middle) have worked the Canterbury block since 2007 when it was first awarded.

Long hard slog so disappointing it was finished with a dry well.

There is now no doubt that Beach and NZOG permits in the area will be relinquished.

[mistaTea]

Shame to see OMV dropping East Coast/Wairarapa (PEP 57073) and Canterbury (PEP 50119) permits. OMV (and Shell for a bit in the middle) have worked the Canterbury block since 2007 when it was first awarded.

Long hard slog so disappointing it was finished with a dry well.

There is now no doubt that Beach and NZOG permits in the area will be relinquished.

You must be referring to this: https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/mixed-reaction-oil-partners-quit

Yes, Barque and Toroa are goners now. Final nail in the coffin.

[fish]

You must be referring to this: https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/mixed-reaction-oil-partners-quit

Yes, Barque and Toroa are goners now. Final nail in the coffin.

Fully agree.
It does seem so ironic that the Greens/Megan Woods by being so blind and obstructive will result in NZ importing more gas and oil and with consequences so detrimental to their causes of reducing pollution and increasing green investments.

[mistaTea]

Fully agree.
It does seem so ironic that the Greens/Megan Woods by being so blind and obstructive will result in NZ importing more gas and oil and with consequences so detrimental to their causes of reducing pollution and increasing green investments.

Interesting find on HotCopper...reinforces what fish has been saying about odds of success and how far technology has come.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bpweek/bpweek-resilient-focused-hydrocarbons-slides-and-script.pdf

From slide 23:

"Since then, our technology-led exploration efforts have generated six commercialdiscoveries with over 85% success rate, and a finding cost of less than $2 per barrel.To achieve this we used technology such as:
– Advanced seismic algorithms to improve image quality
– Full wave form inversion models; and
– Machine learning to predict rock and fluid properties"

Their current hit rate of 85% is truly staggering.

Also of interest is the fact that their 'exploration and access capital spend' has been slashed from a high of $4.6B in 2010 to a paltry $800M in 2019. So these guys are very, VERY picky on what gets drilled and what they take a pass on these days...

[Onthemoney]

Interesting find on HotCopper...reinforces what fish has been saying about odds of success and how far technology has come.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bpweek/bpweek-resilient-focused-hydrocarbons-slides-and-script.pdf

From slide 23:

"Since then, our technology-led exploration efforts have generated six commercialdiscoveries with over 85% success rate, and a finding cost of less than $2 per barrel.To achieve this we used technology such as:
– Advanced seismic algorithms to improve image quality
– Full wave form inversion models; and
– Machine learning to predict rock and fluid properties"

Their current hit rate of 85% is truly staggering.

Also of interest is the fact that their 'exploration and access capital spend' has been slashed from a high of $4.6B in 2010 to a paltry $800M in 2019. So these guys are very, VERY picky on what gets drilled and what they take a pass on these days...

Very interesting - bit of interest building in Cue today - are we about to see some propulsion in prices....

[mistaTea]

- are we about to see some propulsion in prices....

One would hope so! Def big interest in CUE today. But...


CUE market cap = NZ150M.

NZO Market Cap = NZ120M.

NZO MC - 50.04% CUE - $50M cash in bank

= $120M - $75M - $50M

= $-5M.

That makes sense!

4% of Kupe and 15% Ironbark is now theoretically worth MINUS $5M!

We should pay someone $5M to take Kupe and Ironbark off our hands, if Mr Market is to be taken seriously right now.

[nztx]

One would hope so! Def big interest in CUE today. But...


CUE market cap = NZ150M.

NZO Market Cap = NZ120M.

NZO MC - 50.04% CUE - $50M cash in bank

= $120M - $75M - $50M

= $-5M.

That makes sense!

4% of Kupe and 15% Ironbark is now theoretically worth MINUS $5M!

We should pay someone $5M to take Kupe and Ironbark off our hands, if Mr Market is to be taken seriously right now.


Really crazy - isn't it ? .. or potentially dirt cheap buying whichever way you look at it .. ;)

[mistaTea]

5.2km deep. Total depth expected by next announcement (Thurs 31/12/20).

I can’t believe we drilled 1km in just 5 days!

Next few weeks will be interesting - hopefully they have more to say in the next update. And that it is good news!

[Fabs37]

5.2km deep. Total depth expected by next announcement (Thurs 31/12/20).

I can’t believe we drilled 1km in just 5 days!

Next few weeks will be interesting - hopefully they have more to say in the next update. And that it is good news!

Surprised at this rapid Progress, Crew may want to be home for X-mas.

Wonder what sort of material they encounter in the remaining few hundred meters to slow them down??

May Neptune and Fortune be with them at this depth.

[fish]

Surprised at this rapid Progress, Crew may want to be home for X-mas.

Wonder what sort of material they encounter in the remaining few hundred meters to slow them down??

May Neptune and Fortune be with them at this depth.

Happy Xmas to all on board.
We are nearly at our destination and I feel relaxed we are in good hands thanks to BP and the NZO team particularly Andrew Jefferies .
Looks like we will arrive safely-do not expect fireworks to mark this.
There will be no flaring and not even a test of gas flow rates.
Just a mtb probe to measure the hydrocarbons in the formation fluid .
Information about success will be tightly held until announced .
I am very biased but feel we are riding a success wave (as must be all the buyers of CUE-the sp has tripled this year )

[mistaTea]

Happy Xmas to all on board.
We are nearly at our destination and I feel relaxed we are in good hands thanks to BP and the NZO team particularly Andrew Jefferies .
Looks like we will arrive safely-do not expect fireworks to mark this.
There will be no flaring and not even a test of gas flow rates.
Just a mtb probe to measure the hydrocarbons in the formation fluid .
Information about success will be tightly held until announced .
I am very biased but feel we are riding a success wave (as must be all the buyers of CUE-the sp has tripled this year )

Everything going well so far in terms of drilling progress. Ahead of schedule, next week will be interesting.

Just a pity that the lack of NZO share trading liquidity seems to be holding the SP back. Especially when you compare it to CUE, which has doubled in value.

Unclear to me to what extent having 70% of shares locked up by OGOG will limit our SP upside in the event of a discovery.

[nztx]

Everything going well so far in terms of drilling progress. Ahead of schedule, next week will be interesting.

Just a pity that the lack of NZO share trading liquidity seems to be holding the SP back. Especially when you compare it to CUE, which has doubled in value.

Unclear to me to what extent having 70% of shares locked up by OGOG will limit our SP upside in the event of a discovery.


Anyone remember that NZ listed mining stock - Spectrum in 1980's - 90's ?

If it's the one I remember - some may recollect the rapid run up from penny dreadful to over $1

Should Gas prospects be discovered with NZO - how many of the 30.5 m remaining loose shares are likely to then be sold ? ;)

Will slightest sniff of any NZOG shares become as scarce as hens teeth ? ;)

what happens when tight & illiquid becomes even more so, and then more eager punters jump in wanting a share of the action ? ;-)

isn't that how any market works - with supply & demand ? ;)

what are the downsides with NZO ?

[arjay]

Anyone remember that NZ listed mining stock - Spectrum in 1980's - 90's ?

If it's the one I remember - some may recollect the rapid run up from penny dreadful to over $1

Should Gas prospects be discovered with NZO - how many of the 30.5 m remaining loose shares are likely to then be sold ? ;)

Will slightest sniff of any NZOG shares become as scarce as hens teeth ? ;)

what happens when tight & illiquid becomes even more so, and then more eager punters jump in wanting a share of the action ? ;-)

isn't that how any market works - with supply & demand ? ;)


what are the downsides with NZO ?

Spectrum was the new name given to Crusader Minerals - a company floated in the early 80s to re-open the Monowai gold mine. It got buried in an expensive and drawn-out approvals process and in the end was delisted, unable to afford to print an annual report. From memory, there was some dodgy stuff where the Co listing was used to float off another company. Later, it was used to list Mark Ellis’s fruit juice company Charlie’s (now owned by Asahi I believe). Spectrum shareholders mostly got nothing out of it. Hope it won’t be the story of NOG.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/365709

was this sort of announcement (major) expected around now? doesn't feel like good news...

[airedale]

Could go either way....good or bad news. Patience will be rewarded.

[Ripping]

Could go either way....good or bad news. Patience will be rewarded.

I hope you are right. I've been 22 years patient.

[mistaTea]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/123832814/trading-halt-on-new-zealand-oil--gas-shares

[nztx]

Interesting stuff

Would a 'material announcement' be minor ? ;)
Would a 'Found Nothing' be material ?

CUE in trading Halt after trading earlier

https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/cue/discussion/

BPT not in trading halt so far

[BigBob]

CUE's announcement says that they expect the announcement today and trading to resume tomorrow.... Added: and so does NZO's on the ASX...

Don't go anywhere...!!!

[mistaTea]

No discovery, what a shame.

[nztx]

A shame indeed -- mistaTea

NZX Link to announcement of a Duster:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/365714

[Boffin]

A shame indeed -- mistaTea

NZX Link to announcement of a Duster:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/365714



2:00pm announcement......? Fake news?