NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[tim23]

Hold on - hes no longer the MD - David Salisbury runs the show now; I even heard him at the AGM!

[zorba]

.
BHP .... hoping to win a rise in coking coal prices to 145 dollars a tonne for the year starting April 1, 2008 !!!!

Check out details in:

http://metalsplace.com/news/?a=16426

.
.

Go Pike Coking Coal .... GO Tui Oil ..... GO Kupe Gas, LPG and Oil ......... GO NZO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

.

[OutToLunch]

This ex-Taranaki lad took a drive down Inaha Road last night to see the new Kupe production station under construction -- it's being built just over the hedge from the 'runoff' farm that my family used to own when I was a kid and it was a real eye-opener to see the changes that have happened there since my childhood days of feeding out hay in freezing southerly gales. Kind of weird too to see the subject of a share chat forum in real life, which is not my usual experience.

Anyway, there is plenty going on and the foundations are mostly all laid out by the looks of things, with the first of the really big bits of engineering starting to appear too. Action everywhere except with the price of the options, it would seem!

[KIWIKID]

I would be interested to know what value people perceive NZO should be worth at the moment.. (SP)? Also, can someone give me some idea about what "Hector" is?? Without going through the whole thread - I am sure the answer is in there somewhere..

[digger]

I would be interested to know what value people perceive NZO should be worth at the moment.. (SP)? Also, can someone give me some idea about what "Hector" is?? Without going through the whole thread - I am sure the answer is in there somewhere..

Kiwikid , Hector is a dirty word now in the NZO dictionary. Six months ago it held the hope of being a big oil discovery in Taranaki. NZO hoped to find 60 million barrels and AWE had it as high as 1.2 billion . It drilled dry so we do not talk about it anymore. Hector is now removed from the hopeful drill prospects but i see Hector south is still their.
This drill and thrill is all part of the industry and NZO now with 5 or six dry wells in a row is about average for the industry .
NZO SP is now more than covered in the existing prospects.Most long term investers in this company pay little more than a passing interest in the upcoming drilling near KUPE,although mindful that a discovery will add considerable to the SP. The Sp does not need a discovery for support,being so cheap on fundamentals.
So Hector is a word in the NZO past drilling program. Amen.

[temuk]

[QUOTE=arjay;179286]Hi Bemuda,
What do you mean by 'significant shareholder'? According to the last Ann Report he holds less than 0.5% of the listed share



Correct me if I'm wrong!


page 48 of the annual report states -

Mr R A Radford in respect of 6,330,000 shares and 3,307,452 options

thats 2.4% of the shares and almost 2.4% of the options.

[777]

Petroleum and products exports were worth $185m in November, from just $3m a year earlier, with most of the increase from crude oil.


From the November Trade deficit announcement.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4346638a13.html

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=arjay;179286]Hi Bemuda,
What do you mean by 'significant shareholder'? According to the last Ann Report he holds less than 0.5% of the listed share



Correct me if I'm wrong!


page 48 of the annual report states -

Mr R A Radford in respect of 6,330,000 shares and 3,307,452 options

thats 2.4% of the shares and almost 2.4% of the options.

Your onto it Temuk,

Happy New Year

[arjay]

Not quite (although well spotted Temuk). Can someone explain how TR can have an 'interest' in 6.3 million shares (P48) yet not be listed on P46 as holding more than 1.25 million shares? I'm not clear on how many shares TR holds in his own right and thus has voting rights for (to help block a possible takeover bid as has been suggested by one poster) or the to recieve dividends or other income from. It is clear though (see P46) that TR owns less of the company as a shareholder than the likes of several others listed including some who post on this site.

TR derives his not-insignificant income (deserved or not depending on your viewpoint) from direct cash payments from the company, and not from anything related to his shareholding in the company - and that's is my point. Bermuda suggests that, as a reasonably big shareholder anyway, TR will be keen to look out for the shareholders for selfish reasons. That's an interesting idea and it will be very interesting to see how fortunes might change for the shareholder once TR and those 6.3 million shares end up listed with the top 20 shareholders.

[temuk]

You've got me beat on that question!
perhaps BWR could come in here?

[zorba]

.
Check this out . . . .

Oil $200 Options Rise 10-Fold in Bet on Higher Crude

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602083&sid=ayQXcHVStlP8&refer=markets
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[Nitaa]

Not quite (although well spotted Temuk). Can someone explain how TR can have an 'interest' in 6.3 million shares (P48) yet not be listed on P46 as holding more than 1.25 million shares? I'm not clear on how many shares TR holds in his own right and thus has voting rights for (to help block a possible takeover bid as has been suggested by one poster) or the to recieve dividends or other income from. It is clear though (see P46) that TR owns less of the company as a shareholder than the likes of several others listed including some who post on this site.

TR derives his not-insignificant income (deserved or not depending on your viewpoint) from direct cash payments from the company, and not from anything related to his shareholding in the company - and that's is my point. Bermuda suggests that, as a reasonably big shareholder anyway, TR will be keen to look out for the shareholders for selfish reasons. That's an interesting idea and it will be very interesting to see how fortunes might change for the shareholder once TR and those 6.3 million shares end up listed with the top 20 shareholders.My guess is that most of TR's shares are under a nominee acoount such as NZOG Nominees Limited plus other holdings. A few of his friends/aquantiances probably have enough shares between them to form a blocking stake.

[bermuda]

It never ceases to amaze me that a lot of posters dont take into consideration that TR is a SIGNIFICANT SHAREHOLDER.

You can rest assured that everything TR has done in the last 25 years has been in the interests of shareholders.

His efforts are now about to be rewarded with substantial shareprice growth over the next year.

And good luck to him.

Thought I better repeat this. See page 50 of the Annual Report for TR's shareholding.
To me, that's a significant shareholding.

Also option holders will be pleased to know that it is in TR's interests to have these exercised. Additionally the company has publicly stated that it will be trying its very best to have them exercised.

It will be an interesting run towards the exercise date of June 30th 2008.....particularly as

1.The huge cashflows from Tui will be booked into NZO's accounts for all to see
2.Broker sentiment is rapidly changing and becoming favourable
3.Investor sentiment is changing and becoming favourable
4.The Kupe project is on schedule and within budget
5.The price of oil remains very strong
6.The Pike River project gets nearer to production
7.The price of coking coal will receive a big boost on ! April and could fetch $US150 per tonne.....and lastly...

8.The Kupe wildcat due to be drilled in May/June may well prove to be a trump card

Plenty to chew on.

Rest assured that TR will continue to look after both Shareholders and Optionholders interests....as he always has.

[Dr_Who]

BEAUTIFUL!


[http://futures.tradingcharts.com/charts/BCW.GIF

[corran]

I see 30,000 NZO shares were traded before the market opened at 1.17. The same thing also happened yesterday.

The buyer could have bought the shares at the market price on open for an average of just over 1.15.

I'm curious as to why this transaction would be placed and how it can be filled before the market opens? Can anyone enlighten me ... thanks.

[Lion]

No answers to that, sorry corran, but more questions on the same topic. There were trades around 4 p.m. on the last two Monday half holidays when trading was meant to finish at 12:30. On Xmas Eve the price was significantly above the day's average, on N.Y Eve, it was 2c below the earlier close. I can't see the why or how, but it seems there is the potential for price manipulation when most people can't make these trades out of normal hours. Especially the N.Y. Eve one . . "NZO finished the year at . . " Ah well, life's not fair is it, just have to live with it : (

But your post is cheering Bermuda, as they usually are : )

[brucey09]

senors
a lot of TRs options and some shares are not paid up .... 1c rings a tune

[dsurf]

I see 30,000 NZO shares were traded before the market opened at 1.17. The same thing also happened yesterday.

The buyer could have bought the shares at the market price on open for an average of just over 1.15.

I'm curious as to why this transaction would be placed and how it can be filled before the market opens? Can anyone enlighten me ... thanks.

It is an off-market transaction coded IN - Not sure IN stands for but could be "internal" or "inhouse" or similar - ie a crossing between 2 clients of the same broker.

Why at $1.17? - no idea - maybe someone has said buy me XXX NZO at up to $1.17 so a diligent broker has sold some of his clients holding at $1.17

Alternatively the broker may have just bought them later in the day

[tim23]

Malcolm - you seem to have found an extra day in June thats helpful! The company previously extended some options I think the B's?










1

[digger]

Malcolm - you seem to have found an extra day in June thats helpful! The company previously extended some options I think the B's?










1

The b's were extended,but were not the first options to be extended. In fact in this industry extension is more common than expiry or exercising. My personal thinking here is that the OD's should be extended much as the OB's were. That is given the slower than expected progress on KUPE and PIKE from option issue date the options need the extra time to bring the exercising as likely as there were on first issue. The OB's were converted to OC's on a one for two basis for both holders of Heads and Options at 2 cents per new option. This time we need the same arrangement of OD to OE but at no cost as it should be given as a dividend when no dividend can be given in cash do to nil imputations credits being yet available. Just my thoughts.

[arjay]

Correct Digger, but recall that the OBs were issued with a number of goals set for their life-span, one of which was the drilling of Opito. Opito was delayed so the OBs expiry date was extended (perhaps assisted by a bit of lobbying from option-holders in that direction?). Were the OCs issued with a clear set of objectives attached? As you say, a good option would be to do what they finally did for the OBs, and that is to issue new options (OE's) for a couple of cents to both OD and head holders - that is, if NZO wants to bother with options again.

With all the talk about the US heading into recession and the slow decline in sharemarkets generally, NZO seems to be doing quite well. It reminds me of someone trying to walk to the shore while the current is trying to drag them back. A scary 6 months for the ODs ahead I feel.

[Mingeathinaikos]

The b's were extended,but were not the first options to be extended. In fact in this industry extension is more common than expiry or exercising. My personal thinking here is that the OD's should be extended much as the OB's were. That is given the slower than expected progress on KUPE and PIKE from option issue date the options need the extra time to bring the exercising as likely as there were on first issue. The OB's were converted to OC's on a one for two basis for both holders of Heads and Options at 2 cents per new option. This time we need the same arrangement of OD to OE but at no cost as it should be given as a dividend when no dividend can be given in cash do to nil imputations credits being yet available. Just my thoughts.

I won't be a favourite on this site for saying this, but i think it is absolutely ridiculous to be expecting the NZOOD's to be extended.

When issued, they had an expiry date which we all knew, and each holder had roughly 2 years to do with them what they want. Anyone that purchased additional options also knew the expiry date and risks.

How can people call for them to be extended just because they aren't in the money!!!! If you think they need to be extended (won't be exercised) - SELL THEM.
Imagine the market if options were extended everytime they looked like they wouldn't be converted.

[Nitaa]

It depends on what side of the fence you are sitting on. Ultimately, the decision should be in the best interest of the company. If they want to raise extra capital as the company has alluded to then extending the options would seem a logical choice if they are not in the money come June 30.

[KentBrockman]

It depends on what side of the fence you are sitting on. Ultimately, the decision should be in the best interest of the company. If they want to raise extra capital as the company has alluded to then extending the options would seem a logical choice if they are not in the money come June 30.


If those options were extended, wouldn't the company open itself up to all sorts of law suits by those who have already sold their options, based on the perception that they won't be in the money come expiration date?

[corran]

It is an off-market transaction coded IN - Not sure IN stands for but could be "internal" or "inhouse" or similar - ie a crossing between 2 clients of the same broker.

Why at $1.17? - no idea - maybe someone has said buy me XXX NZO at up to $1.17 so a diligent broker has sold some of his clients holding at $1.17

Alternatively the broker may have just bought them later in the day

thanks for the explanation dsurf :-)

[JBmurc]

Double or nothing: traders bet on oil reaching $US200 a barrel by year's end

Grant Smith in New York

January 8, 2008

THE fastest-growing bet in the oil market these days is that the price of crude will double to $US200 a barrel by the end of the year.

Options to buy oil for $US200 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10-fold in the past two months to 5533 contracts, a record increase on any similar period. The contracts, the cheapest way to speculate in energy markets, have appreciated 36 per cent since early December, with crude oil futures reaching a record $US100.09 on January 3.

While analysts at Merrill Lynch and UBS say the slowing US economy will lead to the biggest drop in prices since 2001, the options show some traders expect oil to rise for a seventh consecutive year. Demand will increase 2.5 per cent this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. US oil inventories fell to a three-year low on December 28. Production from Mexico is declining and Saudi Arabia is behind schedule in opening its newest field.

"One hundred dollars a barrel is actually 14.9 cents a cup, so we're still talking about oil being remarkably cheap," said Matthew Simmons, the chairman of Simmons & Co International, an investment bank that focuses on energy. Inventories "are tight as a drum and I don't see how we get out of this box", he said in an interview on Bloomberg television last week. "Demand clearly isn't starting to slow down."

World consumption will rise to 87.8 million barrels a day this year, 2.1 million more than last year, or about the amount that Nigeria supplies, says the IEA, which advises oil-consuming nations. Demand from China alone will rise 5.7 per cent to 8 million barrels a day as imports expand to support an economy that is likely to grow 11 per cent.

Oil suppliers are straining to increase production. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, said last week that the 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah oilfield missed a December start date. Brazil's Tupi field, the second-largest find of the past 20 years, is more than eight kilometres below the ocean surface and will take at least five years to develop.

Mexico's state oil monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos, suffered a three-year, 40 per cent decline at its Cantarell field, the world's third-largest. Since December 2005, fighting in Nigeria has reduced production 11 per cent to 2.18 million barrels a day.

Crude futures rose 2 per cent in the first three trading days of the new year, closing at $US97.91 a barrel in New York on January 4.

"We haven't got to $US100 on just a whim," said Paul Horsnell, the head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. "This is at heart also about longer-term concerns that supply capacity investment needs higher prices to keep up with demand growth."

Barclays forecasts oil will average $US87.40 a barrel this year, a 21 per cent increase from last year's average.

The Nymex options, which give speculators the right to buy 1000 barrels of oil in December, are becoming a favourite for traders, even if they don't expect crude to reach $US200, because they are a cheaper way to speculate than using futures contracts. Options expire worthless if crude fails to reach the "strike" price. There were 500 of the options on November 7.

The price of the options rose as high as $US550 last week before closing at $US300 on January 4. That amounts to 30c a barrel. The December futures to purchase 1000 barrels in December rose 3.5 per cent to $US94,010, or $US94 a barrel.

"The most common analogy used to describe options is that it represents insurance" against "low-probability" events, said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets.

Oil forecasters say there is no chance of $US200 crude, as the US, which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, slows. Prices will average $US78 a barrel this year, 20 per cent below the present level, and $US75 in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time prices fell that much was in 2001, when they dropped 26 per cent.

Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley in New York expect the US economy, the world's largest, to slip into recession this year. The jobless rate rose to 5 per cent in December, the highest in two years. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to the lowest level in almost five years in December.

Oil was overpriced, given the outlook for the economy, said Jan Stuart, an analyst at UBS in New York. He forecasts an average price of $US74 a barrel this year, little changed from last year. Merrill Lynch's Francisco Blanch predicts $US78 in the fourth quarter.

"I am afraid that we are going to see an economic slowdown that we have not seen the beginning of yet that will take some significant amount of oil demand off the table," Stuart said on January 2.

But most strategists didn't foresee last year's 57 per cent gain. Crude traded at an average of $US72.36. A Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts in September 2006 forecast a median price of $US64.

"Going through $US100 means that people are seeking more protection against a higher number," said Michael Lewis, a strategist at Deutsche Bank in London. Deutsche Bank expects oil to fall to about $US80 a barrel.

Options trading indicated that the likelihood of crude reaching $US125 a barrel in December had almost doubled since December 25, to 18 per cent, Mr Lewis said.

While $US200 may remain an outside chance, Matthew Simmons has shown he is willing to make that bet. He wagered $US5000 with the New York Times columnist John Tierney in August 2005 that oil would average at least $US200 a barrel in 2010.

The latest assessment from OPEC, which produces 40 per cent of the world's oil, suggests prices will rise.

"There is enough oil in the market," Chakib Khelil, the president of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, told reporters in Algiers at the weekend. Mr Khelil, who is also Algeria's Energy Minister, said rising prices were not OPEC's fault.

"You will see even $US200 oil in the next five years," said Jean-Francois Tardif, a senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management in Toronto.

[Nitaa]

If those options were extended, wouldn't the company open itself up to all sorts of law suits by those who have already sold their options, based on the perception that they won't be in the money come expiration date? As an option holder, you should be under the perception that the company reserves the right under the NZX rules that they can extend the expiry date. Whether they do or not is another thing. It adds to the volatility that there is big money can be won and lost on these options.

[JBmurc]

I won't be a favourite on this site for saying this, but i think it is absolutely ridiculous to be expecting the NZOOD's to be extended.

When issued, they had an expiry date which we all knew, and each holder had roughly 2 years to do with them what they want. Anyone that purchased additional options also knew the expiry date and risks.

How can people call for them to be extended just because they aren't in the money!!!! If you think they need to be extended (won't be exercised) - SELL THEM.
Imagine the market if options were extended everytime they looked like they wouldn't be converted.

I see the very savy oil&Gas jnr weeky writer John campbell stated in his lastest release he had brought alot of NZO opts and more head shares his view like mine is NZO is massively undervalued and should really be closer to $2 per share

[digger]

If those options were extended, wouldn't the company open itself up to all sorts of law suits by those who have already sold their options, based on the perception that they won't be in the money come expiration date?

No not at all. The options were issued fairly at 1for 2 to all head holders and listed as tradeable. What each holder then does with his or her holding in options is there own business,and in keeping with what they think the future may play out.In no way is the company responsable for this indiviable choice,so the company can only assume all holders are as they were at options issue date. Extension for whatever reason on this basic is fair if heads and option holders are included as before. It can also be argued as it has happened before it is part of the expected culture of this company,while not necessarly a condition of it. So it is just as much a personal risk to sell thinking they will be out of the money as it is to hold thinking they may be extended. At this stage i doubt the company inself has a clear opion on the subject. I just brought it up to express what i felt was the best way forward for the company given the large revenue increase that will mostly happen after 30 june 08 and further protection from a too cheap takeover.

[peterfindlay]

As an option holder, you should be under the perception that the company reserves the right under the NZX rules that they can extend the expiry date. Whether they do or not is another thing. It adds to the volatility that there is big money can be won and lost on these options.
I am advised that the expiry date cannot be extended. The requirements of both the ASX & NZX rules need to be considered. Where there is inconsistency between the rules of the two stock exchanges, the more onerous requirement of the two exchanges needs to be considered as applying.

[bermuda]

I am advised that the expiry date cannot be extended. The requirements of both the ASX & NZX rules need to be considered. Where there is inconsistency between the rules of the two stock exchanges, the more onerous requirement of the two exchanges needs to be considered as applying.

I agree entirely. There is no way they can extend the date without one hell of a legal battle. The expiry date has been set and that's that.

You make your decision to buy or sell based on that date. Not some other date.

Let's hope ( for option holders sake ) that the Kupe wildcat can be drilled before June 30th....or that the market wake up to the real value of NZO before June 30th.

[Unicorn]

Bermuda,

I would be happier if the ODs just faded away. They have been a useful anti-takeover device, and if Hector had come in they would have provided the necessary development funding.

At this stage there is no demonstrable need for the extra funds - and until the board demonstrates a better grasp of running new projects (following the Pike fiasco) the thought of them having $200M to play with is frightening.

Current market cap is about $300M, and for the ODs to be exercised it would need to increase to $600M. Return on investment would suffer drastically, at least until such time as the new funds were deployed in such a way that they earned at least as much as Tui/Kupe.

Much of the $200M required to take up the ODs would be reluctantly supplied, which would mean a lot of sellers for a few months after July. A significant proportion of the new shares would presumably go to NZO holders, so many of them could be expected to sell down NZO heads to raise the funds. The share price is already under enough pressure due to the absence of buyers, so we do not need to encourage sellers.

Looking forward to the quarterly report, and hopefully the continuation of oil prices at these amazing levels.

[Bilo]

Bermuda,

I would be happier if the ODs just faded away. They have been a useful anti-takeover device, and if Hector had come in they would have provided the necessary development funding.

At this stage there is no demonstrable need for the extra funds - and until the board demonstrates a better grasp of running new projects (following the Pike fiasco) the thought of them having $200M to play with is frightening.

Current market cap is about $300M, and for the ODs to be exercised it would need to increase to $600M. Return on investment would suffer drastically, at least until such time as the new funds were deployed in such a way that they earned at least as much as Tui/Kupe.

Much of the $200M required to take up the ODs would be reluctantly supplied, which would mean a lot of sellers for a few months after July. A significant proportion of the new shares would presumably go to NZO holders, so many of them could be expected to sell down NZO heads to raise the funds. The share price is already under enough pressure due to the absence of buyers, so we do not need to encourage sellers.

Looking forward to the quarterly report, and hopefully the continuation of oil prices at these amazing levels.

Hear hear Unicorn
In agreement although the "fade away" would transfer market value to head holders from option holders and the company is IMO not signalling clearly enough - probably because they don't really know either until after Kupe drills - which is too late.

If they pulled the useless dual listing (dropped ASX) then they might be able to extend the ODs conversion date???

[bermuda]

Unicorn, Bilo
Yes I agree your thoughts. NZO havent signalled anything specific for the option funds apart from some rather old and now vague thoughts on an aquisition. With the opportunity to purchase Swift Energy now gone I cannot see why they would need the dosh.

Ok the real value of NZO might be north of $2.00 but as long as these options are in existence the SP wont go above $1.50 unless the Kupe wildcat came in big time.There are just too many to be exercised.

[zorba]

.
YES, let em fade away .......... But, if we want join the big boys in the GSB, the extra $200m will come in pretty useful !!!
.

[Wiremu]

Unicorn,

Would you rather have your money with the operators of the Penasquito mine in Mexico where the capital cost went from US$882 million to US$1.5 billion, or the operators of the Galore Creek mine in Canada where the capital cost estimates went from US$2.0 billion to US$5 billion? There are plenty of other examples around, and closer to home.

NZOG has produced a very good result through their joint venture involvement in the Tui project; Kupe seems to be progressing very well; as is Pike River. I am not quite sure what fiasco you are talking about but if you keep repeating it often enough !!

[clips]

" better grasp of running new projects (following the Pike fiasco) the thought of them having $200M to play with is frightening."

what was "the Pike fiasco"...... ??

[Steve]

I am not quite sure what fiasco you are talking about but if you keep repeating it often enough !!

Obviously the fiasco has not happened yet?! :eek:

[Crypto Crude]

Zorba,
I used to think that joining GSB would be in the best interests for US...
Im not so sure about that any more... it would have to be one of the most expensive places on Earth to Drill and its risky business...
NZO is building a stable company of diversified revenue streams and massive costs in GSB could rip apart all that has been done by this company in an attempt by NZO to increase investors wealth, (which has fallen on deafs ears)...
....
...
..
If Future oil Prices keep rising then the recoverable amount of oil from Tui will go Up, and possible further upgrades... Oil's at historic highs and over the last 140years oil prices have average $15 US per barrel...
3 major spikes have occured looking at historical Oil price charts and the other 2 were caused because of specific events... The current oil price ATM is supply and demand stuff... Its been no shock this time....and Oil to go higher I reckon... Turn the TUI tap off, wait for $200 oil.... then turn it back on... simple, highly profitable strategy...
lata...
:cool:
.^sc

[Unicorn]

The Pike fiasco ...

NZO 2004 Annual Report - FID early 2005, 12 months development, production early 2006
NZO 2005 Half Year report - mine development cost $70M
NZO Sept 2005 announcement - an IPO by March 2006 and
possibly earlier
NZO Dec 2006 announcement - the resignations of Messrs G Duncan, D Wood and J Ogden for personal reasons

The major quantifiable targets were not met, and were out by about 300%. The independent directors all resigned. There were numerous delays to the IPO. The transport arrangements were delayed many times, then totally replaced.

To me this does not show a Board with the necessary understanding of the project they took on.

[Steve]

The Pike fiasco ...

To me this does not show a Board with the necessary understanding of the project they took on.

Over-promised and under-delivered it would seem? NZO is not a company that I have actively followed prior to mid-2006.

[zorba]

.
Unicorn,

Would you apply your last sentence / comment to the two new PRC Board members ?

Have you met John Dow the Independent Chairman of the PRC Board ?

If so what is your opinion of him ?

Did you perhaps attend the AGM at the Mine site and get a feeling for the scale of the operation ?

It is true that the project suffered delays and serious misalignment of the then current cost estimates compared to final cost estimates.

However, do not many major projects suffer such cycles of initial, middle and final costings, particularly over the last several years in which resource projects have all suffered huge escalations of costs of equipment and salaries as everyone wants to jump on the commodity gravy train.

In the mean time much of the Pike project has stayed on or under the final budget ...... except for the tunnel where more difficult underground conditions have been encountered ..... worse than was forcast by the consulting geologists and geotechnical engineers, not a sign of incompetant PRC management, rather that geology is still an interpretive science. Tunnel extra costs are not huge and will be more than balanced by the very likely higher coking coal prices anticipated.

Note also that the escalation of resource project engineering costs consequent on the commodities boom is building in a cost structure that will have to be met by higher commodity prices ....... the trouble and infrastructural costs that the Aussies are having in getting coal shipped out of the Newcastle bottle-neck will help underpin new coal project economics.

Now if only we could sort out those fat yank bankers and avoid a US recession, then it would be full steam ahead for the super cycle boom !!!!

Overall I think NZOG got a good pass mark in bringing the certainly complex Pike project to a succcessfull and indeed oversubscribed IPO.
.

[Unicorn]

Zorba,

My comments were not directed at the PRC board at all. They apply to the NZO board, who took on the Pike project when they clearly did not understand what was really involved. They obviously thought it was a much smaller, quicker, cheaper, project than it really was.

Management of the mine development appears to have been very good since Peter Whittall became involved. He appears to understand what is required, and it is evident that there have been a lot of changes under his guidance.

The transport arrangements have been a complete shambles, but the recent change to rail has sorted that out. Had that option not become available then PRC might have faced some considerable difficulty in bringing its product to market economically. I see this as good luck, rather than good management.

I have no complaint about the project itself. PRC appears to have achieved a reasonable result, in a reasonable time, and at a reasonable cost. But had the NZO board understood what was involved, I am sure that they would have approached the project somewhat differently and thereby gained a much better return for their (NZO) shareholders.

[tim23]

Those who say the options can't be extended are wrong - what I and others are saying is its happened before and could happen again - simple. The company was dual listed then as well.

[bermuda]

Zorba,
I used to think that joining GSB would be in the best interests for US...
Im not so sure about that any more... it would have to be one of the most expensive places on Earth to Drill and its risky business...
NZO is building a stable company of diversified revenue streams and massive costs in GSB could rip apart all that has been done by this company in an attempt by NZO to increase investors wealth, (which has fallen on deafs ears)...
....
...
..
If Future oil Prices keep rising then the recoverable amount of oil from Tui will go Up, and possible further upgrades... Oil's at historic highs and over the last 140years oil prices have average $15 US per barrel...
3 major spikes have occured looking at historical Oil price charts and the other 2 were caused because of specific events... The current oil price ATM is supply and demand stuff... Its been no shock this time....and Oil to go higher I reckon... Turn the TUI tap off, wait for $200 oil.... then turn it back on... simple, highly profitable strategy...
lata...
:cool:
.^sc


Shrewdy,
Well deduced. The GSB is far too hard. Exxon came back and bid for a different block. Be very careful here.

Re the oil price....oil goes up....unless the US recession is really huge...Even then the Chinese and Indian juggernauts will soak it up amid decling production from 82% of the worlds oilfields so yes .....oil goes up.

[arjay]

Over-promised and under-delivered it would seem? NZO is not a company that I have actively followed prior to mid-2006.

Yep - overpromised 29 million barrels, currently under-delivering 41 million barrels

[JBmurc]

Yep - overpromised 29 million barrels, currently under-delivering 41 million barrels

And what about there current profits bet in 2006 they would never of dreamed of a average prive over $100bbl NZD whch doesn't look like falling in a hurry.

[bermuda]

And what about there current profits bet in 2006 they would never of dreamed of a average prive over $100bbl NZD whch doesn't look like falling in a hurry.

JB,
Actually at the 2006 AGM the Chairman Mr Tony Radford said that he anticipated a price of $US 90 a barrel when Tui came on stream. Oil at that time in 2006 was well below that.

He is a very astute shareholder.

[777]

NZO
10/01/2008
MINE

REL: 0945 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: KUPE DEVELOPMENT WELLS DISCLOSURE NOTICE

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd advises that at 14:00 hours on 9 January, the 17
inch section of the Kupe South 7 (KS-7) well had reached a depth of 1852m
MDRT (measured depth from rotary table).

Drilling of the 17 inch section will continue to the planned depth of 2,000m
at which point the 13-3/8 inch casing will be run and cemented. Upon
completion, the 17 inch section of Kupe South 8 (KS-8) will be drilled and
cased. This will be followed by drilling of the 12-1/4 inch sections of KS-6,
KS-7 and KS-8.

Drilling began at 22:40 hrs on 19 December 2007. Progress of all three
development wells is summarised as follows:

22 inch 17 inch 12.25 inch 8 .5 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m
KS-7 566m 1852m
KS-8 568m

Each of the three wells will be drilled by the Ensco-107 jack-up rig to a
vertical depth of approximately 3,400 metres.

The Kupe Project drilling campaign is being undertaken on a "batch-drilling"
basis. This process involves completing the same section of each of the three
wells before proceeding to the subsequent section and is a more efficient
approach than drilling the wells separately. Drilling of the three wells is
expected to take around five months to complete.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development will
comprise production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station. The Kupe Project is
expected to be completed by mid-2009 and produce approximately 254 petajoules
of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light
oil (condensate).
End CA:00159195 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-01-10:09:46:00

[manxman]

Over-promised and under-delivered it would seem? NZO is not a company that I have actively followed prior to mid-2006.

It's a bit like the Bill Tidy cartoon where Moses (with a unionist cloth cap) explains to the Isrealites that "we've got the milk and honey lads but the anti adultery clause stays in"

Only someone with a touch of psychopathy could lead a bunch of hopeful (but relatively ignorant) investors to join his scheme. The personalitiy, from the outside, is exactly that of a televangelist magnet salesman.

Follow my dream. The wounded lie by the wayside with McDunk. The believers keep on following hopefully with AR.

At the end of the road the dream turns out to be (TRUE/FALSE)

Overpromised - Yes, thats what psychopaths do.
Underdelivered - Watch this space.

Disc - Holding NZO PPP PRC

Mx

[duncan macgregor]

It's a bit like the Bill Tidy cartoon where Moses (with a unionist cloth cap) explains to the Isrealites that "we've got the milk and honey lads but the anti adultery clause stays in"

Only someone with a touch of psychopathy could lead a bunch of hopeful (but relatively ignorant) investors to join his scheme. The personalitiy, from the outside, is exactly that of a televangelist magnet salesman.

Follow my dream. The wounded lie by the wayside with McDunk. The believers keep on following hopefully with AR.

At the end of the road the dream turns out to be (TRUE/FALSE)

Overpromised - Yes, thats what psychopaths do.
Underdelivered - Watch this space.

Disc - Holding NZO PPP PRC

Mx I like your post it leads us up to the most interesting time in the NZO history.
The burning question is the parcel, what if anything is it worth when the music stops?. At the very start i valued the parcel at 5c to take in the risk factor. I later said it was worth nothing. Its not to long to go the music is heating up the parcel is getting lighter as it goes round. The burning question is ARE you all to scared to state before the event what you think the parcel is worth when the music stops. NITA you are in love with the company start a WHATS THE PARCEL WORTH COMPETITION. Put me down as a big round circle. Only kiddin guys but it would be better than listening to peak oil all the time. Macdunk

[winner69]

Pretty impressive looking ship that Apache ...... looks like it means business

Strange site though.... this working ship moored in front of a crusie liner

[dsurf]

I like your post it leads us up to the most interesting time in the NZO history.
The burning question is the parcel, what if anything is it worth when the music stops?. At the very start i valued the parcel at 5c to take in the risk factor. I later said it was worth nothing. Its not to long to go the music is heating up the parcel is getting lighter as it goes round. The burning question is ARE you all to scared to state before the event what you think the parcel is worth when the music stops. NITA you are in love with the company start a WHATS THE PARCEL WORTH COMPETITION. Put me down as a big round circle. Only kiddin guys but it would be better than listening to peak oil all the time. Macdunk

Ever since issue they:
have been worth more than 5c

Are worth 8c today

Tomorrow?????

[Bixbite]

To 11 January 2008: Approx 6.9 million barrels produced, 6.4 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 860,000 barrels.

To 07 January 2008: Approx 6.7 million barrels produced, 6.4 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 840,000 barrels.


http://www.nzog.net/tui/

[digger]

To 11 January 2008: Approx 6.9 million barrels produced, 6.4 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 860,000 barrels.

To 07 January 2008: Approx 6.7 million barrels produced, 6.4 million barrels shipped. NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 840,000 barrels.


http://www.nzog.net/tui/

So humming along nicely at 50000 a day.Those of you that think that will not be the case throughout 2008 could you outline a rough plan of when you expect production drop to set in. Remember this is a very porus rock so production will not drop till well after 50% of oil in place has been removed. I would love to know the history of the water cut.About time we had a update.

[Unicorn]

Digger,

The middle of this month marks the half way point in the 2007/2008 years production. It looks like about 7.2M barrels will be produced by then, which is about 20% up on pre-production estimates.

The current (end of November) estimate of 11M barrels for the 2007/2008 year means just 3.8M can be expected in the second half of the year. The pre-production estimate for the second half of this financial year was about 3.2M barrels, so if we increase this by the same 20% factor we can also expect another 3.8M odd barrels - so the original production profile still applies.

We know the water cut has so far been less than expected, so to get back to the original estimates the water cut will be more than was expected in the second half. The information released by the company, which has a lot more technical expertise than me, has told us to expect that. I am sure the company would have released an update, if one were available, rather than risk having their technical staff look like chumps.

[tim23]

Duncan - the music has yet to start

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - the music has yet to start What do you reckon TIM A SLOW FOX TROT or a tango or perhaps something a bit faster finishing up with a great chorus of i told you soes. You have to admit it will be a very interesting time so lets hear the result now before the music stops pick your lavel above or below and by how much simply as a bit of fun. I hope i am wrong but then my honest opinion is the parcel will end up worthless, so lets hear you predict what the parcel contains six months out from the grand opening. The company is coining it in, the sp should rise, but then they have pissed so many investors off with their lack of disclosure that it brings it back to a do you trust the company scennario. What do you reckon tim the options are worth if anything on conversion day?. Macdunk

[arjay]

IMO the ODs have chosen an unfortunate six months to finish their dash. Unless a mechanism is artificially put in place to get the SP above $1.50 (eg a buy-back or take-over bid) I can't see the oppies in the money. A big strike at Kupe might do it, but woudl the details be out in time? I say 'unfortunate' because the US appears to be heading for a recession and this may have the short-term effect of (1) reducing demand for oil (price drops temporarily), (2) squeezing the amount of invesment dollars and (3) spooking investors generally.

[Mr Tommy]

Story on stuff yesterday: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4349412a13.html

"In comparison, the west coast Tui oilfield had about 100 million barrels of oil in place and had produced about 42 million barrels, Mr Beggs said."

I assume what they are saying is there are potentially 100m barrels in Tui, of which 42m are recoverable. Still a lot of room to move upwards.

[zorba]

.
Arjay,

Good points ..... each and every one !!!

.

And as for poor old DM, ever since he got out of NZO, the poor old guy has suffered ongoing tamporal insertions everytime anything positive is posted about NZOG.

Please note dear DM:

That in this falling market, brought on by those Yankey Monkey Bankers and their Rating Agency Toadies, those same high rise New York financial wizz kids and their Hedge Fund short sellers who would strip you and me of every cent if they could, that NZOG has held up remarkably well !!

INCIDENTALLY dear DM, did you bother to read the Five (5) Articles published recently in the NZ Herald (that absolute bastion of NZ moral correctedness) by Mark Pittman (of Bloomberg Financial News Sevices, see Bloomberg and NZ Herald websites) relating to the CATASTROPHIC behaviour by the the US Mortgage, Banking and Financial systems, surely documenting clear evidence of moral corruption on a par with the Enron dissaster and the Iraqi invasion -- Dear DM what has happened to the immense moral compass that the great US of A is supposed have, prithy tell us dear DM ?

Please dear DM, give some thought to these salient facts, please give some credit where NZOG credit is due !!!

Dear DM, sleep well on these matters, lest your health suffers irretrievable tamporalities.
.

[Nitaa]

.
Arjay,

Good points ..... each and every one !!!

.

And as for poor old DM, ever since he got out of NZO, the poor old guy has suffered ongoing tamporal insertions everytime anything positive is posted about NZOG.


.Tamporal Insertion. My gosh thats a new one. Perhaps that insertion could be in his mouth and used as an ALL DAY SUCKER or a GOB STOPPER. Perhaps with all of dm's dribble that tamporal insertion will expand so much it will shut him up for life. macca, as we speak i got a packet of super size coming your way in the mail.

Arjay. I concur as well. The timing looks to be lousy for oppy holders including myself. Although i am one of the lucky ones who sold at a couple of good prices.

imo i think nzo are absolutely going gang busters at the mo. since the big flops with hector, the last six months has been huge. Since hector there has been great results with a potentially messy pike transportation sorted out. Tui is performing significantly better than expected at a very high price as well. Kupe with inital cost blowouts like pike is falling into place nicely. i expect big things with kupe and investors will not be dissapointed. if nzo is around $1.10 to $1.20 by May or June then i will be all over it like macca with his bottle of scotch.

[Crypto Crude]

MD-WHATS THE PARCEL WORTH COMPETITION. Put me down as a big round circle. Only kiddin guys but it would be better than listening to peak oil all the time


for the "whats the parcel worth competition", put me down for 4cents at this time period....(currently trading at 7cents)...Yah just never know....
....
MAckdadunk,
peak Oil, and oils pricing is one of the most important fundamentals of this company...
with out oil then NZ oil and gas, would be just 'NZ coal and gas'...
... Think of the cost of changing ticker code?.... from NZO to NZG, or NZC :D....
or just forget about the NZ bit and make it CGE...:p
E stands for exploration...
....
Arjay,
In answering your question about a 'big strike' before option expiry...I donot believe the 3 Kupe development drills will offer a big run in SP... they will take 5 months to complete with priority to The Momoho exploration well, which is not expected to spud/complete until after option expiry... IMO the 3 development wells will meet investor expectation when they flow just like what happened with the TUI project during its core development stage, No major excitment came until exploration side of the project came into full swing.... Calling Momoho an exploration well isnot technically correct, its far from wildcat drilling... It's testing the same formation and sandstone reserviour as the 3 wells in the main development program which will be put on standby for production once fully completed, which is a certainty to happen....
The Ensoc jackup rig has arrived very late and is holding up CUE and first production of its main project, Maari....
Arjay, great idea for getting the Options over the line!
So what could get the options over the line?
well not alot really... A takeover as you said, is every much so an outside shot which would be one of the few ideas for $1.50 and above at conversion time... but why would such a thing happen with all these options on the market and dilution of any takeover to the interested party... The only other idea I have is if Oil Prices boomed to $150US and above...also, 1st pike production could get them there if theres a few hidden surprises and market wakes up to PRC's value which is far above $2 if production is going off current reserves...Major re-rate isnot unquestionable with PRC, and NZO from its other two projects... is it likely in the next 5 months for major run in Oil prices like to $150-$200US? not really... but within the next 5 years its almost a sure thing I reckon...in 5 years, the historical average of $15 will be set at a new historical average for the new generation and 140year block of time of much greater than $100US... IT is a sure bet that historical average of Oil price will increase year on year from here on in...If the NZ govt didnot take the biggest piece of the pie at the Pump then it wouldnot be so bad for us Kiwi's because oil is still cheap, it just looks expensive for us when we are filling up... I love it....
...
In a few years NZO will be rue-ing the fact that they sold down there stake in KUPE to 15% what was it previously?.... long term earner here...
...
...
..
Im eyeing NZO up once again for a trade... I've recently posted about how crazy the SP is.... Im looking to enter prior to MOMOHO (remember this name), and ride a 'big up' shot target with little down (protected by 2 key developing projects, one major producing project)....
At this stage if NZO is below 1.30 1-2 months prior to Momoho drill then I will be all over the stock...Success rate of this well is more highly expected to come through than any of the previous wells in the Tui project and perhaps in this oilers history (big call)...Its great risk return for investor dollars IMO.... I should be all over this one now but in 4-5 months im prepared to lose 20CPS on entry price with market risk and all, and funds for me tied up in other areas... it sucks this time around I wont be able to trade the options...
NZO should be valued at $1 with TUI, KUPE, portfolio of permits alone, and upside to reserves, also previous upside to reserves which have been announced, but market missed them... PIKE is just a bonus....
....
Disclosure...
As I said I will be looking to re-enter NZO in 3 months plus or minus...
But In late feb/mar around these prices ($1.11) with DOW above 12000 I will be in...or up to $1.30 in may/June I will be in...happy to fence sit ATM...
Ive doubled up my small holdings of FAR to average down to .1375 after buying a few days back at .145, and doubling up at 13c... I will sell this stock on any day of the week for VPEO sub 6cents... I will trade FAR's current drill, which does have risk like all oil activities...
If I donot see VPEO sub 6cents then I will buy Vic P shares...
im 30% cash and my holiday earning money will go on NZO...
only currently holding a small position on FAR and a larger position on VPEO, and cash...
im only playing with profits...
....
Christchuch Sharetraders meeting is being held on the 9th of FEB at the DUX DE LUX, 5pm.... I will be attending... If your living in CHCH, and youre not going to come... Then ask yourself this one question....
Why???
foreigners other kiwis and other internationals are welcome to visit us at this highly prized National Convention event..
....
Great to see a few posters here on this thread with an incredible set of skills...They are setting the bar higher for the rest of us posters...
keep the good oil,coal and gas info coming...
lata...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

NZOOD 7cents looks good enough for exit....
in 3 months with NZO at $1.30 OD's will prob still be around 7cents or much less because of further time decay....
:cool:
.^sc

[Dr_Who]

You guys are brave to play the options. The Doc will stick to the head shares.

[duncan macgregor]

You guys are brave to play the options. The Doc will stick to the head shares. I take it by that statement the good doctor thinks the options are worthless.
SHREWD CRUDE, 4c. Macdunk and DOCTOR WHO nil. market sits on 7c. Who would like to join the competition six months to go before the music stops. Macdunk

[Unicorn]

I think the options will prove to be worth nothing.

A lot of the potential value of options is in the leverage they afford. But there are practical limits to this as conversion approaches, because the greater the leverage the more needs to be found (borrowed) to convert. Currently NZOOD offers about 21 to 1 leverage at conversion - so for every $10,000 spent on NZOODs now an investor might be required to come up with $210,000 to convert them. I doubt that many investors would be able to take on more than 5 to 1 leverage, which still means borrowing $50,000 on a $10,000 NZOOD investment. Even if NZOODs are "in the money" just prior to conversion a number of shareholders will realise the potential call on funds and dump their NZOODs or let them lapse.

Assuming an investor can take on 5 to 1 leverage, at a cost of 2% (which is reasonable to convert and quickly sell the excess NZOs converted), I calculate the breakeven point between buying NZO and NZOOD is about 170c. Anything below 170c and NZO is the better option, above 170c and NZOOD is better. Add some weighting for risk, and it appears that NZOOD holders should be expecting the share price to be north of 175c in July. That is a long way from where it is now.

The best prospects for NZOODs are, in my view, that they may show a great (but temporary) percentage gain if there is some goods news in the next month or two (e.g. the next quarterly exceeds market expectations and gives a good boost to NZO heads).

[bermuda]

There are too many on issue to be worth anything. Even if the Headshare tried to get over $1.50 and the oppies started to look okay, you would find as the countdown began that shareholders would start "selling the heads to buy the options" and thus the whole thing would get destroyed.

Options therefore zero.

[Mick100]

5 months is a long time in the life of an option

I was expecting NZO to get rerated last yr - it didn't happen but I still think this company is going to get rerated at some stage - whether or not it happens before the 30th june, I don't know
If it does happen within the next 5 months the options will be well in the money. In my opinion it's worth the risk - but it is a big risk.
.

[Snow Leopard]

As a convert to yogi-in-oz's astroturfing I predict the value of the options will be known by the end of June.

Good to see the thread remains the same.

regards
Paper Tiger

[Nitaa]

I too beleive the options will worthless by June 30th, however Nita is still on the fence with the possibility of jumping in for more.

Wait for it...

[COLIN]

Some excellent points made, in various perceptive postings above. I came to the conclusion several months ago that the chances of the options being worth anything on expiry date were looking exceedingly unlikely, and I took my profits.
Put me down as a member of the zero brigade.

[zorba]

.
More loot for the head holders when the re-rating finally comes after a full year of Tui production ......
.

[arjay]

Shrewd, good point about the price a the pumps. $US100 per barrel works out at about 70c NZ per litre of crude, so refined product probably still comes in under or around a buck a litre at the pumps. The extra 80 cents is added value for aunty Helen's troff.

[Dr_Who]

I take it by that statement the good doctor thinks the options are worthless.
SHREWD CRUDE, 4c. Macdunk and DOCTOR WHO nil. market sits on 7c. Who would like to join the competition six months to go before the music stops. Macdunk

I am not a big risk taker, hence most of my decisions are based on fundamentals investing for med/long term. I dont have a crystal ball and have no idea if NZO will be $1.50 or not in 5 months time. If these were "in the money" options I would take a punt, but "out of the money" options are far too risky for me.

The Doc prefers to stick to head shares.

[manxman]

Shrewd, good point about the price a the pumps. $US100 per barrel works out at about 70c NZ per litre of crude, so refined product probably still comes in under or around a buck a litre at the pumps. The extra 80 cents is added value for aunty Helen's troff.

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm has 95 Octane at A$113 say NZ$129 a barrel, wholesale, untaxed, ex east coast oz refinery. Our wholesale prices should be much the same in as much as they actually exist.
Add to this, the distribution costs and the retail markup (and our retailer provided all our kids with their first work experience) and you get the cost of petrol. The price of petrol on the other hand includes, as Arjay notes, a contribution to the shieks of Wellington. Blaming Arabs for the price of oil is a bit rich when you see what our own kith and kin are doing.

Currently refining margins on petrol are under $US10 per barrel, say 7c / litre so the Wellington cut may be even bigger.

[Bilo]

IMO currently, the Oppies will be in the money, just. Too late, too much cash required. But this is probably the worst outcome as they will still be worth nothing as the company hasn't got anything more worthwhile to spend it on than what they currently have capacity to finance.

The best option then will be to look for an amalgamation with an Ozzie oiler. I won't like to be putting in my share of NZD150M for that prospect...so my Oppies will still lapse...

The Directors have stuffed this up bigtime, only extreme luck can save them now. There was never a need for these Options, as there is no need for dual listing, and no use for yet more capital...they should have offered to buy them back for 10cps (or at market which was very close to 10cps) at the AGM. Instead they chose to stuff their shareholders around to the tune of 150M x10c or NZD15M...

The decision to do nothing was a mistake...time will tell

[arjay]

Indeed Manxman, from what you say we'd only be paying around 65c/litre if the stuff wasn't taxed etc. Even so, apart from metred water at the gate, is there any other commercially supplied liquid that is as cheap as $1.80/litre petrol? The stuff's still ludicrously cheap for what it is.

[Unicorn]

The Directors have stuffed this up bigtime, only extreme luck can save them now. There was never a need for these Options, as there is no need for dual listing, and no use for yet more capital...they should have offered to buy them back for 10cps (or at market which was very close to 10cps) at the AGM. Instead they chose to stuff their shareholders around to the tune of 150M x10c or NZD15M...


Why do you suggest that the directors "stuffed up bigtime" by not needlessly giving away $15M of shareholders funds?

How did they "stuff their shareholders around"?

The options were given away, and have provided takeover protection and an opportunity for taking profits or extending exposure during the extensive 2006/2007 drilling program. They have done their job well. The drilling program came up empty, so the options probably won't be in the money. Pretty much what was to be expected in those circumstances.

[bermuda]

Why do you suggest that the directors "stuffed up bigtime" by not needlessly giving away $15M of shareholders funds?

How did they "stuff their shareholders around"?

The options were given away, and have provided takeover protection and an opportunity for taking profits or extending exposure during the extensive 2006/2007 drilling program. They have done their job well. The drilling program came up empty, so the options probably won't be in the money. Pretty much what was to be expected in those circumstances.

Hi Unicorn,
Agree your comments.

[the machine]

do the opposite of what most posters say and you will probably make a lot of money - thus buy more options!

as stated at the agm, nzo is focused on making the conversion.

2 financials due out in next month and a half - will rerate the company

m

[bermuda]

do the opposite of what most posters say and you will probably make a lot of money - thus buy more options!

as stated at the agm, nzo is focused on making the conversion.

2 financials due out in next month and a half - will rerate the company

m

Agree your comments too. A very interesting 6 months for NZO.

[the machine]

any idea if kupe will be flow tested upon completion of the 3 production holes rather than wait a year before the production facility is up and running.

me thinks production could start sooner using the swift facilities purchased by origin.

M

[Mingeathinaikos]

Some excellent points made, in various perceptive postings above. I came to the conclusion several months ago that the chances of the options being worth anything on expiry date were looking exceedingly unlikely, and I took my profits.
Put me down as a member of the zero brigade.

Ditto, got out at 11c.

[the machine]

any idea if kupe will be flow tested upon completion of the 3 production holes rather than wait a year before the production facility is up and running.

me thinks production could start sooner using the swift facilities purchased by origin.

M


30 km from kupe landfall to rimu production station - why wait a year to use jv new facility when a lousy 30km 6" pipeline could start cashflow starting much sooner.
origin have flagged up potential advantage for kupe with the swift purchase and this has been mentioned before on this thread.

kupe production could start before end of june with a 6" 30km pipeline to rimu.
impact on sp? would it go up 20c? - i think so
impact on ocs? converted!

my tip for pass the parcel oc is 30C

M

[the machine]

I take it by that statement the good doctor thinks the options are worthless.
SHREWD CRUDE, 4c. Macdunk and DOCTOR WHO nil. market sits on 7c. Who would like to join the competition six months to go before the music stops. Macdunk


30c if early kupe production using origin's new buy - rimu production station

m

[Chippie]

any idea if kupe will be flow tested upon completion of the 3 production holes rather than wait a year before the production facility is up and running.

me thinks production could start sooner using the swift facilities purchased by origin.

M

With production drilling to be completed within 5 months it is the Production station on the critical path. I have been thinking that there must be a good chance of the new plant being commisisoned earlier. Perhaps even later this year which would be good news in itself?

[Oiler]

With production drilling to be completed within 5 months it is the Production station on the critical path. I have been thinking that there must be a good chance of the new plant being commisisoned earlier. Perhaps even later this year which would be good news in itself?

Chippie
I would be very surprised to see the plant commissioned earlier than planned 2Q 2009. There are too many pieces of kit being sourced and fabricated around the world in an already very tight O&G construction market. I will certainly be pushing to see it commissioned on time.

The Machine suggests....

30 km from kupe landfall to rimu production station - why wait a year to use jv new facility when a lousy 30km 6" pipeline could start cashflow starting much sooner.
origin have flagged up potential advantage for kupe with the swift purchase and this has been mentioned before on this thread.

kupe production could start before end of june with a 6" 30km pipeline to rimu.
impact on sp? would it go up 20c? - i think so
impact on ocs? converted!

Machine the Rimu facility would need to be revamped to be able to handle the Kupe fluids. Kupe has quite a lot of nasty shiit that needs to be processed so at this time I would be surprised if it could be completed before Kupe is running. Yes I would expect Origin does see synergies between the plants such as common pipelines onshore and also the development of the offshore areas from Rimu!
Dont be at all surprised to see expansion of Kupe, there is provision for it some where down the line?? ;) If my memory is correct Kupe was priced on $45 boo and where are we now. This field should be another gold mine for NZO.

Oiler

[zorba]

.
Oiler,

Agree with you ...... whole process and plant fabrication is far too complicated to rush .... look what happened to the BasGas processing plant .... what a disaster that was.

So steady as she goes and crossed fingers for smooth start up mid next year !!
.

[Steve]

.... look what happened to the BasGas processing plant .... what a disaster that was.

What happened there?

[zorba]

.
Steve,

Below follows a summary by EnergyReview back in 2005 of some of the issues to do with the BasGas project.

AWE and Origin (operator) were involved along with Clough (engineering contractors). As you can see it all fell apart horribly with Clough "evicted" from the project.

Everyone hopes Origin learnt a huge amount form the BasGas debacle - the project was finally brought to full operation but at huge costs and delays.

Origin are the operator for Kupe project ..... contract is with Technip, I think on a profit/risk sharing basis with Technip .....

So I'm all for the Kupe project to proceed steadily and surely with everything thought through, no hurried completions or sudden fancy new ideas, not good engineering to do new stuff at last minute ...... meeting the mid 2009 start-up is the key of course.

Origin and Clough eventually settled out of court ..... certainly not the way to finish up a major project !!
.

************************************************** ***********

First BassGas sales expected next month
Steve Rotherham
Wednesday, January 19, 2005

HAVING evicted Clough workers in mid December, BassGas operator Origin Energy says the outstanding engineering work required to complete the project is almost finished and the introduction of raw gas to the offshore platform is now expected by the end of January.

"Following this milestone the project will commence commissioning of the offshore platform and packing the 187kms of raw gas pipeline that runs from the platform to the onshore processing plant located near Lang Lang," Origin said in a statement.

First gas sales are expected to begin in February 2005 and design flow rates should be met in March, according to Origin.

The BassGas joint venture has engaged Downer Engineering to complete the remaining rectification works and modify the offshore facilities and onshore processing plant to handle some impurities in the gas stream.

"The original plant design allowed for some of this additional equipment and its inclusion will not materially impact on the economics of the project," Origin said.

The original contractor, Clough Ltd, was ejected from the project following a protracted and bitter dispute with the BassGas partners over delays to the project.

Clough managing director David Singleton claimed that delays had occurred because Origin had fallen behind with its offshore drilling program and had failed to provide gas suitable for introduction into the development. He also said completion of the offshore works had been hampered because Origin had restricted access and not provided suitable offshore accommodation.

Clough submitted a certificate issued by Lloyds of London certifying the offshore facilities were contractually ready for start-up (RFSU) and implied that the delays had much to do with the mercury levels in the gas.

But Origin said the Lloyds inspection did not cover all of the work required to be completed under the Contract to ensure that RFSU was achieved. It also maintained that Clough was misrepresenting the mercury issue.

"Detailed analysis of the Yolla 4 results indicate that the raw gas is within contractual specifications but that traces of mercury have been detected in the Yolla gas stream," Origin said.

"This eventuality was anticipated in the contractual arrangements with Clough and consequently the onshore plant was designed with the flexibility to deal with this issue. This has not impacted the delays experienced by Clough and is not expected to have any significant economic impact on the performance of the BassGas project."

Origin is seeking liquidated damages for each day the project has been delayed. But Clough maintains it has met its obligations and that many of the hold-ups have been caused by obstructive tactics on Origin's part and, in particular, on the part of the project manager.

Clough wants $25 million in 'quantified' claims from Origin, plus 'further general damages and damages under the Trade Practices Act'. These additional claims are understood to include $12 million in milestone payments Origin has withheld over the past two months and a similar amount in damages.

In December an arbitrator was appointed to sort out this dispute. Professor John Uff QC of Keating Chambers, London – who is experienced in construction disputes and arbitrations – will preside over the first directions hearing in Melbourne early this year.
.

[Oiler]

[quote=zorba;180521].
Steve,

Below follows a summary by EnergyReview back in 2005 of some of the issues to do with the BasGas project.

AWE and Origin (operator) were involved along with Clough (engineering contractors). As you can see it all fell apart horribly with Clough "evicted" from the project.

Everyone hopes Origin learnt a huge amount form the BasGas debacle - the project was finally brought to full operation but at huge costs and delays.

Origin are the operator for Kupe project ..... contract is with Technip, I think on a profit/risk sharing basis with Technip .....

So I'm all for the Kupe project to proceed steadily and surely with everything thought through, no hurried completions or sudden fancy new ideas, not good engineering to do new stuff at last minute ...... meeting the mid 2009 start-up is the key of course.

Origin and Clough eventually settled out of court ..... certainly not the way to finish up a major project !!
.
Good response Zorba. No contractor would want to go through that debacle.
I am sure a lot of thought was put into the execution strategy for Kupe. Ozzies arent so keen on "alliance" contracts but they have become a very profitable approach for all parties concerned here in NZ and there is a lot of kiwi influence within the Origin camp in NZ. ;)
NZO holders can relax in that I wouldnt expect any surprises "good or bad" to come from Kupe until after start up.
Oiler

[remy]

down again today, i am kicking myself for buying them at 1.16 :(

[digger]

down again today, i am kicking myself for buying them at 1.16 :(

Hi remy
Do not kick yourself too hard. The retreat to 110 was just the market in a bad mood. Maybe it will feel better next week. The american subprime is sure a bit of a problem and probably for oil consumption is a good thing. Will have to slow up on oil use one way or another so if a ressession is it then so be it. Meanwhile the company has 12.5 % of another 50000 barrells today.

[Nitaa]

only need to kick yourself if you sell below the price you brought at. hold this stock for the next 12 to 24 months and you will be laughing all the way to the bank

[JBmurc]

down again today, i am kicking myself for buying them at 1.16 :(

I thought that when I recently paid 1.02 after which they went to 98c within days still now at 1.10 it's really is great buying not long too the 2nd qutr report which will open some eyes and SP.

[AMR]

down again today, i am kicking myself for buying them at 1.16 :(

Don't worry unless you leveraged:). In a year's time when they are 1.60, does it matter whether you paid $1.16 for them or $1.07?

[dsurf]

This morning the buy was $1.10 & the offer was $1.12

thenm someone decides to sell 926 shares at $1.10 when they could have been offered at $1.11. The US market has bounced overnight, oil is up. I believe that for the second time in less than a year this stock is being deliberately and legally manipulated down.

I suspect that if another seller turn up at $1.10 then the order for 926 shares will mysteriously disappear leaving no trace.

What do others think?

[tim23]

Totally agree AMR if you believed in them @ $1.16 and nothing has changed then today @ $1.09 you can buy some more on sale!

[Dr_Who]

I was thinking of topping up some more NZO shares today, but bit my lip and walked away from the computer. May top up more if the sp drops further.

[remy]

thanks for your support guys :)

[toffeefan]

Hi to all of you out there and glad I found this forum...

Making a first foray into NZO today, so intend to buy some this morning.

:)

[toffeefan]

so glad I have been busy at work with the drop this morning. No time to place an order...

Is this being manipulated down? Can anyone enlighten me?

Thanks in advance.

toffee.

[Bilo]

so glad I have been busy at work with the drop this morning. No time to place an order...

Is this being manipulated down? Can anyone enlighten me?

Thanks in advance.

toffee.

There has been nothing but good news from the company. Tapis still kicking around NZD130 per barrel. 50,000 barrels per day. Cash in the bank to cover any PRC requirement (at a pretty premium to market rates). PRC activity rocketing along.

Only one seller. You can bet that he is motivate by shorting activity. Manipulation when cash is in demand - not ever on your Nelly toffee!!!!! That would not happen on the NZX under NZ Securities Commission controls (regulation sorry) there are no controls.

As one poster put it people getting shorn by the professional fleecers...

[toffeefan]

Thanks Bilo.

[tim23]

Its all a bit ugly but its the same company as yesterday or last week except with more oil!

[srowe]

Hey Shrewd, NZO @103 and my wife keeps asking about that new Kidney

[digger]

There has been nothing but good news from the company. Tapis still kicking around NZD130 per barrel. 50,000 barrels per day. Cash in the bank to cover any PRC requirement (at a pretty premium to market rates). PRC activity rocketing along.

Only one seller. You can bet that he is motivate by shorting activity. Manipulation when cash is in demand - not ever on your Nelly toffee!!!!! That would not happen on the NZX under NZ Securities Commission controls (regulation sorry) there are no controls.

As one poster put it people getting shorn by the professional fleecers...

Very good point Bilo,but if you are not selling just now it will all turn around after the current drop. It is that old Warren Buffett saying of being brave when others are fearfull and fearful when others are brave. This current economic US recession has sure come at the exact time that NZO was ready for takeoff.Now it is just sit it out and wait for the certain correction to follow. NZO is in good fininical position and has no contact with the subprime market that i know of,so will rebound on current income,and rebound more so on future income.
Hang on . This current economic correction will be shown to have little conection to NZO,and time will prove that to be so.

[toffeefan]

I can't see any negative to this, so going in now...initial buy.

:)

[duncan macgregor]

Its all a bit ugly but its the same company as yesterday or last week except with more oil! Tim that means nothing when the herd is in full flight.
Your fundamentals count for nothing in times like this. The traders are out the market, leaving the buy and hold investors holding the fort. I expect bigger and better mini crashes leading up to the big one that threatens. Its all in market sentiment, which has nothing to do with fundamentals in any particular company. Plenty of opportunities to average down this year in most companies i expect. I am mostly out the market, and expect to remain that way until after the crash looming up later this year then will buy in on TA buy signal when its all over. I might even get back into NZO at about 80c on the way back. Macdunk

[dsurf]

Tim that means nothing when the herd is in full flight.
Your fundamentals count for nothing in times like this. The traders are out the market, leaving the buy and hold investors holding the fort. I expect bigger and better mini crashes leading up to the big one that threatens. Its all in market sentiment, which has nothing to do with fundamentals in any particular company. Plenty of opportunities to average down this year in most companies i expect. I am mostly out the market, and expect to remain that way until after the crash looming up later this year then will buy in on TA buy signal when its all over. I might even get back into NZO at about 80c on the way back. Macdunk

We know you will never get back into NZO (for 80c you need 9/11 to happen) because your sentiment to it has been permanently soured. Don't let your emotions rule Macd. NZO is oversold & you know it!!!

[Bilo]

I can't see any negative to this, so going in now...initial buy.

:)
MacDunk may well be right about the capacity to go lower. Those little blocking stakes that you see from time to time are the brokers/CMC making sure that those who are highly leveraged don't have much money to work with. (one earlier with PRC 1610@1.01 and another 3000 @ 1.04) They also force holders to sell at the lower price and hence force the price down. It all feeds their market shorting activity - that why shorts become such a good bet at this time - just be ready to take your profits quickly because the dealers atke theirs first. No one wants to enter the market in this situation as the controllers of the Margin lenders/CFDs (in OZ 30pc of the trades CFD) controls the market. They increase spreads and stop people buying or selling - all part of the game. Might be better to hang onto your money until we know when the end of month announcements is coming out.

Listen THIS IS NOT MANIPULATION!!

As MacDunk has said before - a big boys game. No rules other than that the biggest bully wins. What you stand to gain isn't worth putting your money in for...not much fun if you are caught with it in there but it is all part of the process of them taking their cash back.

[Bilo]

MacDunk may well be right about the capacity to go lower. Those little blocking stakes that you see from time to time are the brokers/CMC making sure that those who are highly leveraged don't have much money to work with. (one earlier with PRC 1610@1.01 and another 3000 @ 1.04) They also force holders to sell at the lower price and hence force the price down. It all feeds their market shorting activity - that why shorts become such a good bet at this time - just be ready to take your profits quickly because the dealers atke theirs first. No one wants to enter the market in this situation as the controllers of the Margin lenders/CFDs (in OZ 30pc of the trades CFD) controls the market. They increase spreads and stop people buying or selling - all part of the game. Might be better to hang onto your money until we know when the end of month announcements is coming out.

Listen THIS IS NOT MANIPULATION!!

As MacDunk has said before - a big boys game. No rules other than that the biggest bully wins. What you stand to gain isn't worth putting your money in for...not much fun if you are caught with it in there but it is all part of the process of them taking their cash back.


You will see that someone jus tpicked up half a million NZO at 1.04 - the fruits of a days fleecing. Must feel good to be one of them and a bit gutting to be the other...

[Bilo]

A timely response to my post on PRC. Just put 50000 at 1.01 and said buy them if you can....or if you want to get screwed some more...

[arjay]

16 January 2008
NZOG SUPPORTS PIKE RIVER FUNDING PACKAGE
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited is playing a major role in the completion by Pike
River Coal Limited (PRC) of that company’s funding of the Pike River Mine
development.
NZOG has agreed to underwrite $17.5 million of the $60 million rights issue of shares
announced by PRC today (Offer) and will satisfy this underwriting obligation by taking
up its rights under the Offer.
The PRC issue is being fully underwritten through lead manager McDouall Stuart
Group Limited and PRC’s three principal shareholders – NZOG, Gujarat NRE Limited
and Saurashtra World Holdings Private Limited.
NZOG Chairman Tony Radford said that NZOG was pleased to support the PRC
NZ$60m rights issue.
“The combination of this equity capital raising with a US$30m bond issue to Liberty
Harbor, also announced by PRC today, is expected by PRC to fund the Pike River
mine development through to completion. NZOG’s previous undertakings of support
for PRC will be met through taking up $17.5m of entitlements under the rights issue.
“I expect NZOG’s stake in Pike River Coal to increase in value as the Pike mine
passes remaining milestones and moves into production; certainly, the demand and
price outlook for the high quality coking coal which the mine will produce is currently
very bullish,” Mr Radford said.

[Nitaa]

The heads are looking better and better every day. The options are now almost worthless and yours truly is on the verge of picking up a truckload. First thing first is i will wait until a clearer picture of the subprime market rippling effect. It is mostly likely to get worse before better. But my gosh, all of a sudden i have found extra cash waiting to put into the market.

On a seperate note, Bush is upping the campaign to attack Iran and believe this will happen before he ends his term. If i am correct then the price of oil could hit $200 in no time.

Watch this space..

[tim23]

Duncan - good luck with your 80c sentiment is driving the market at the moment but I expect fundamental values to return; besides NOG has fared reasonably well (until today I guess) in this market.

[Nitaa]

tim23

You are correct. This is where fundamentals come in moe than ever. Of couse most stocks will cop it to some extent but the ones who have strong fundamentals dont get punished as much.

The blood being spilt on the some of the mining stocks over the last 6 months in Aus show the difference what "hot air" does.

For the savy investor, they will stick to fundamentals and cash during these times. A good guide during these times is to look at the balance sheet

[Dr_Who]

Rights issue explains the weakness of PRC and NZO and the large crossing of 20M shares. Good opportunity to pick up some cheap shares during rights trading. Bring it on!

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - good luck with your 80c sentiment is driving the market at the moment but I expect fundamental values to return; besides NOG has fared reasonably well (until today I guess) in this market. TIM, its not good luck or bad luck that has nothing to do with it. Its following market sentiment which in turn has nothing to do with a companies fundamentals as you are finding out with NZO. Its times like this you get out the market completely. We are in for a very rough year with Bush threatoning IRAN, plus the American economy tanking fast dragging other markets down with it. Company fundamentals have no bearing on the market sentiment.
Traders are fleeing the market, leaving the mum and dad investors holding the baby. The time to buy NZO is when the market stabalizes, and starts a long slow uptrend. Who knows when the market will come good, it looks like a crash is imminent. That is why fundamental analysis is useless, and trading is by far the safest option. Macdunk

[tim23]

Incorrect - for every seller theres a buyer and they aren't the mum & dads, they are likely to be sellers in this market not buyers, so whos buying? likely - institutions and private investors who see this as a market on sale.

[Unicorn]

The time to buy NZO is when the market stabalizes, and starts a long slow uptrend. Who knows when the market will come good, it looks like a crash is imminent. That is why fundamental analysis is useless, and trading is by far the safest option. Macdunk

Normally I would agree with this.

But with NZO at present we have a special situation. The second quarter's reports due out in a couple of weeks will show a massive turnaround in profitability versus the second quarter last year, and versus the first quarter this year. We can expect somewhere around 42,000 barrels * 92 days * 0.125 NZO share of Tui * $86.25 price per barrel / 0.77 exchange rate = $54M (NZ) income, less say $10M in royalties and $3M in production costs ... lets say somewhere around $40M underlying profit for the quarter.

Tax losses taken to book and the way capital costs are accounted may mean the headline figure is different, but as a quantum of the underlying profitability I suggest $40M is a reasonable estimate. Compare to around $6M earned in the the first quarter and the loss in the second quarter last year that is a huge turnaround. With the NZO share price having been largely independent of crude price, it appears that the market does not see NZO as a producer ... yet.

I do not think NZO will start a long slow uptrend with the market, but will be rerated on the next quarterly. $270M market cap is just not logical for a company with $40M quarterly earnings - credit crisis or not. I think there is a lot of money out of the market at present, looking for a winner (and they are few and far between at present) so things could change very quickly - I am happy to be in NZO ahead of the upcoming announcements.

[airedale]

Nita, a truckload of options or heads??:confused:

[duncan macgregor]

Incorrect - for every seller theres a buyer and they aren't the mum & dads, they are likely to be sellers in this market not buyers, so whos buying? likely - institutions and private investors who see this as a market on sale. The sellers are the people getting out the market in these risky times. The buyers are people buying more of the same averaging down with most buyers adding to their initial buy convinced that the numbers stack up in their favour. The traders are gone sitting in wait for the bottom to emerge. The options are now worthless unless you beleave in miracles. Macdunk

[Bilo]

Normally I would agree with this.

But with NZO at present we have a special situation. The second quarter's reports due out in a couple of weeks will show a massive turnaround in profitability versus the second quarter last year, and versus the first quarter this year. We can expect somewhere around 42,000 barrels * 92 days * 0.125 NZO share of Tui * $86.25 price per barrel / 0.77 exchange rate = $54M (NZ) income, less say $10M in royalties and $3M in production costs ... lets say somewhere around $40M underlying profit for the quarter.

Tax losses taken to book and the way capital costs are accounted may mean the headline figure is different, but as a quantum of the underlying profitability I suggest $40M is a reasonable estimate. Compare to around $6M earned in the the first quarter and the loss in the second quarter last year that is a huge turnaround. With the NZO share price having been largely independent of crude price, it appears that the market does not see NZO as a producer ... yet.

I do not think NZO will start a long slow uptrend with the market, but will be rerated on the next quarterly. $270M market cap is just not logical for a company with $40M quarterly earnings - credit crisis or not. I think there is a lot of money out of the market at present, looking for a winner (and they are few and far between at present) so things could change very quickly - I am happy to be in NZO ahead of the upcoming announcements.

Unicorn
Firstly I agree with potential rerating at the quarterly, but then many oil companies are in the same situation. This sell down is not about fundamentals.

The timing of this attack is very similar to the very successful August attack. Don't be confused with fundamentals - this is about cash and liquidity. These are targetted attacks, this time under the guise of a liquidity crisis. By broker on any client they can expose, and to the detriment of those honest citizens who don't trade. If only everyone knew who to short and was unethical enough to do it. I think you might have to be an Australian.

A lot of companies who thought that they were doing very well today got sold down and some miraculously recovered - some didn't - perhaps it is their turn tomorrrow. Perhaps those that recovered a little are in for 2x tomorrow. All on small volume on the way down to ensure that no-one can sell. Millions taken on the way back up.

On another bad smell, when companies like PRC and NZO tell brokers more than their owners they leave a bad smell. The McDoull Stuart December report didn't print the whole story - just alluded to the PRC financials - while they organised $100M finance (now the size of that had Gordon stamped all over it).

The timing of the dumping of 50,000 PRC shares on the market at 1.01 was before the notice. See when I noted it above - see when the notice was posted. Perhaps it was just in response to my calling attention to the blocking order. Either way these events smell bad for insider behaviour. If only who was trding was more visible to the rest of us.

Sorry Brian, but I didn't like the timing of this report. It has been awhile in the making and to be unleashed today before the probable NZO sweetener was nasty for some of your shareholders.

[Nitaa]

Nita, a truckload of options or heads??:confused: I am looking at the options. Heads is a no brainer for a safe bet. If you want to hedge your bet then take a stake in both. Right now i am looking to pick up the options. It will not take much to turn the market around and in particular lift the sp for nzo. for me the risk versus the reward looks good. Having said that i now proably rate the options about a 70 chance of not being in the money. Even at 80% chance of not making it, the options look good at around 5 cps.

Again, make no mistake, only 1 of many bad news will send the options into oblivion. Significant problems at either Tui, Pike Kupe will do it. The you could have the decline of commodity prices, recession impacting on the local market and so on.

On the flip side, barrring unforseen circumstances (subprime being an exception) at around 20 to 30% chance of options binging in the money, we could have a 10 bagger in 6 months. Its not out of the realms of possibility.

Most will know when when the OC's went as low as 6 cps only to reach a height of around 60 cps. That is the pontential of options and especially now with the od's. Is it de ja vu? time will tell.

Its worth noting that the market has had 10 consecutive days of falls. Over a 15% correction from its high. If its only a correction then the buying opportunity is fantastic. If the market falls over then thats another story. Even so, NZO will prove to be a safer investment than many other top 50 companies

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, Surely the only safe bet is no bet at all in times of complete turmoil. Its much better to stay out the market money in the bank might make very little but sits there waiting for opportunities that will come when this is all over. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

Nita, you must have huge balls to be buying "out of the money" options in these uncertain market while PRC is doing a rights issue.

[Unicorn]

Given that PRC has been given the go ahead to raise $60M in equity, I assume that NZO has, at least privately, admitted defeat with the NZOODs. It would not make sense to raise $60M for PRC and $210M for NZO concurrently, from largely the same investor base.

[Toddy]

Given that PRC has been given the go ahead to raise $60M in equity, I assume that NZO has, at least privately, admitted defeat with the NZOODs. It would not make sense to raise $60M for PRC and $210M for NZO concurrently, from largely the same investor base.

Unicorn
As the PRC project gets closer to production the risks are minimised and therefore more options open up to PRC from the market. They have taken advantage of the progress and have refinanced the current debt structure. PRC was not in a position to negoitiate with Westpac when they did the initial debt deal. Hence, the expensive funding arrangement. This is positive news and shows that the project now has the full backing of the shareholders involved.

[Bilo]

Given that PRC has been given the go ahead to raise $60M in equity, I assume that NZO has, at least privately, admitted defeat with the NZOODs. It would not make sense to raise $60M for PRC and $210M for NZO concurrently, from largely the same investor base.

Good point Unicorn. At least not without upsetting many long term holders. Maybe McDouall Stuart haven't told them this yet. Should we expect an announcement imminently? After all $150M is a significant item.
Was your 210, 150+60?

I formulated a response to my earlier comment that the directors had stuffed this up but I considered the down ramp perhaps a bit too severe and didn't post it. In my view the waiting until June 30 before determining what they are going to do is wrong. It is the major factor impacting on the share price - other than the liquidity squeeze.

[Unicorn]

Was your 210, 150+60?

No. 140M NZOODs at 150c each = $210M. An enormous sum for a company with a market cap of $260M today.

[BigBob]

The bid and offer for NZO are both at 101 according to ASB & CMC shows it as suspended... There are no announcements to indicate a halt or anything...

Anyone knows what's going on...?

[777]

Check out NZO on the Australian market. Announcement from Origin re Kupe.

[zorba]

Unicorn

As the PRC project gets closer to production the risks are minimised and therefore more options open up to PRC from the market. They have taken advantage of the progress and have refinanced the current debt structure. PRC was not in a position to negoitiate with Westpac when they did the initial debt deal. Hence, the expensive funding arrangement. This is positive news and shows that the project now has the full backing of the shareholders involved.


Agree with you Toddy, overall seems to me to be positive move, with the credit crunch in full swing I hate to think what sort of interest rate Westpac would have skinned PRC for the $65m ..... 11 or 12% ??
.

[Nitaa]

Dr who.

The way the markets are going, my finger is slowly quickly coming off the trigger for the options.

KIV

[arjay]

what an excellent environment for NZO to buy back shares in.

[Steve]

what an excellent environment for NZO to buy back shares in.

They will use the cash to take up their PRC rights entitlement...

[Dr_Who]

what an excellent environment for NZO to buy back shares in.

Let me pick up some more shares during the rights trading before they announce the buy back. :p:p:D

[dsurf]

They will use the cash to take up their PRC rights entitlement...

that will be only be 17m out of approximately 70m they would have generated this FY to end of Jan. Assume some debt repayment. Then? more licenses and or buyback?

A buyback would send the right message ie, we are buying shares on market because we think the company is seriously undervalued and cannot find a better investment!

[Nitaa]

$1 looks good for gains this year.
No doubt. I am not sure what the term would be, not a dead cat bounce but i expect a rebound next week. The volatility is quite fascinating and nothing we have seen for as long as i can remember. Not even back in the 80's where every lemon was tasting sweet have we seen such volatility.

I expect nzo could rebound to $1.08 to $1.10 next week only to be followed by another sell off and even breach the $1.00 mark for the umpteenth time.

My trigger is off the options but is on the trigger for the heads. That could all change.

MacDunk.. what does your moving averages, candlesticks, timelines say? I take it that you have been sucked in and spat out in bubbles with all your stop losses kicking in or are you riding the tsunami in?

[duncan macgregor]

No doubt. I am not sure what the term would be, not a dead cat bounce but i expect a rebound next week. The volatility is quite fascinating and nothing we have seen for as long as i can remember. Not even back in the 80's where every lemon was tasting sweet have we seen such volatility.

I expect nzo could rebound to $1.08 to $1.10 next week only to be followed by another sell off and even breach the $1.00 mark for the umpteenth time.

My trigger is off the options but is on the trigger for the heads. That could all change.

MacDunk.. what does your moving averages, candlesticks, timelines say? I take it that you have been sucked in and spat out in bubbles with all your stop losses kicking in or are you riding the tsunami in?NITA, I have made mistakes thinking that this is right and that is wrong, but the one thing that i have learned is that its the market that decides what the share price is, not fundamentals common sense or any other method.
I to have been sucked in of late, thinking that i know best, but the market simply does not operate in a given rational manner. The big picture dictates traders fleeing the market selling to people that know best averaging down for bargains, or simply investors catching falling knives.
I find that if you are guessing market direction ignoring TA buy and sell signals then sooner or later the market will prove you wrong. I have been guilty of that of late, but mostly am cashed out the market with no intention of buying back in for at least until the market stabilizes showing TA buy signals. I would say that this is a great lesson for all investors to learn, the worst still has to come, so how did your methods protect you so far?.
I was lucky holding AGM which went up by 30% in dec 2006 sold to quick at 98.5c its now 7c higher to pull my money out the market. I sold two other companies at 10% losses, and lost one third on PEM expecting a take over knowing best, ignoring everything i taught myself.
Last year i more than doubled my money, but this year over all i have lost about 18% getting out of the market with nearly all my investments. I will stay right out the market until America goes under, and the world economy settles back, 5% in the bank is good enough for me after last years effort. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

MD. I sold eighty percent of my portfolio last year. They included skc, wpl, bhp. I only have PPP, NZO and NZOOD. I am fortunate that what i have left is NZO OD's and PPP are all free. I orginally brought NZO way back at the low 30's and sold at $1.10. Some ods were free and I brought more at the begining of 2007 at an average price of 12 cps. I sold most of ods at 30.5 cps, 18 cps and 10.5 cps. PPP brought options at 4.1 cps and converted but then sold most at 35 cps because of what i sold last year. What i did was not trying the read the market but simply use my money in another area..ie my own business. Whether the market was in a bull or bear market i would have exited the market pretty much the same.

As i have stipulated, I dont care about trading, although i love numbers especially statistics. Whenever i buy it is intended for an investment until such time i need some of it for housing, business or whatever. Therefore, I never have a specific timeframe or exiting although i do make sure I have an exit stratergy always. With regards to options, they are very volatile as you know and if I dont have the funds for conversion (which was the case last year) then i make sure that i can exit well b4 their expiry plan which is the primary reason they got sold last year. The other reasons were to raise extra capital for the business and the old saying, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. That is why i can live with myself if the rest of the options become worthless (which they almost are).

One thing i can say md, there are a lot more smarter people out there than me. Many also know stocks better than me. My number 1 strength is money management and in any type of investing, it is one of my golden rules. Another golden rule with shares is, whatever i invest i am prepared to lose. I never borrow.

I believe that the last paragraph is the foundation of good investing and as i get older it will probably be more entrenched into me. When you are in your teens are early 20's then taking more risks is ok because time is on your side.

All said, even if NZO hits $2 or # dollars within the next year or 2 I wont be crying wolf. In fact i will be especially happy for the ones who have had the patience.

Thats my little story anyway. Enjoy the weekend

[the machine]

any news re how the kupe pipelaying is going?

hope the fires near picton did not interfere

M

[manxman]

any news re how the kupe pipelaying is going?

hope the fires near picton did not interfere

M

From the Port Marlborough shipping schedule, Apache is due to depart am 23rd Jan with the first of three loads.

Returning 27th Jan and loading the next lot until 1st Feb.
Returning 4th Feb, loading until 7th Feb.
The pipe spools have been assembled into strings which look to be about 400 metres long, which means that final welding must be taking place as they wind the pipe on board, which would explain the extended load time. Reeling the stuff out must be a comparative doddle if the weather is kind.

The fire was in the Koromiko area 10k south of Picton. Well away.

Mx

[the machine]

From the Port Marlborough shipping schedule, Apache is due to depart am 23rd Jan with the first of three loads.

Returning 27th Jan and loading the next lot until 1st Feb.
Returning 4th Feb, loading until 7th Feb.
The pipe spools have been assembled into strings which look to be about 400 metres long, which means that final welding must be taking place as they wind the pipe on board, which would explain the extended load time. Reeling the stuff out must be a comparative doddle if the weather is kind.

The fire was in the Koromiko area 10k south of Picton. Well away.

Mx

thanks maxman

would be good to see it happening

M

[Sumnerned]

Up six cents in last 30 minutes.

Is this the start of the buyback, or something else? Volume over 150000 since the start of the jump.

[Toddy]

Up six cents in last 30 minutes.

Is this the start of the buyback, or something else? Volume over 150000 since the start of the jump.

Something else.

Inside trading.

[Sumnerned]

Well assuming you are right Toddy, at least it's not insiders dumping for once!

[blockhead]

I thought the conspiracy theorists would pop up !!

Not saying you are wrong though

[Tok3n]

short positions being closed out?

[Dr_Who]

Something else.

Inside trading.

Please do tell us. Must be some good news out soon? It is all good. :)

If it is just short position covering, then it serves then right for putting NZO under pressure. LOL

[bermuda]

Financials looking better and better every day.

Nothing wrong with this stock. She's now producing more than anticipated at better than anticipated prices.

Wouldnt want to short this one. Burn you up if you do.

[the machine]

Please do tell us. Must be some good news out soon? It is all good. :)

If it is just short position covering, then it serves then right for putting NZO under pressure. LOL


about time for another reserves upgrade for tui after 2 more months production.

the sp increase certainly went against the trend

M

[friedegg]

about time for another reserves upgrade for tui after 2 more months production.

the sp increase certainly went against the trend

M
no the money earned so far will be made public,and there will be scratching of heads

[digger]

US resession looking grim. All markets seem to be down,so expect NZO under a dollar today dispite the every increasing good news. It would just be too much to expect NZO to go this much against the general trend.
I will still hold and let this thing sort inself out as every other downturn has done in the past.What a prick of a time for PRC to have a cash issue.

[zorba]

.
Someone just bought at close 100,000 NZOs at 106 cents -- pushed the price back to opening price !!

NO Drop for the Day !!!!

GO NZO !!!!!!
.

[AMR]

Looking at Asia right now makes me nervous. Hong Kong gapped down circa 600 points on the open and has fallen another 900 so far. Now 100% hedged on NZO. Tomorrow will not be a good day.

[zorba]

.
AMR,

How are you 100% "hedged" on NZO ?

Have u sold everything else and put it all into NZO ?

Wish I'd had some sort of hedge on CVN, gauddammit.

Last purchase was at 65c and now look at it at 36 cents !!
.

[AMR]

I've sold the same amount of CFDs as the number of shares I have, so any losses on my heads will be covered by earnings on my CFDs, it cuts both ways of course, if the heads rise then you lose out on the CFDs.

PPP and AWE are both down...it must be company specific whatever it is.

[Rabbi]

NZO shareprice stagnated more than any other share over the last few years and now looks to be one of the safer shares in this bear market. We live in interesting times.
Next time someone asks me how my shares are going I'll say I'm alright mate I've got NZO so I'm fully hedged!:cool:

[Nitaa]

NZO is a tower of strength. I maybe stating the obvious but nzo is sticking out like a sore thumb as one of a high quality stock. I have made mention of it before that the overseas stocks such as Aus, china, japan etc were more vunerable than nz stocks. Many have seen aus as the greener pasture but sooner or later reality kicks in.

nzo may not make the $1.50 mark but it could still give it a good shake. i only wish i had more money to invest in nzo right now.

whatever happens, its going to be a bloody interesting year for nzo and gloabal markets in general.

[duncan macgregor]

NZO is a tower of strength. I maybe stating the obvious but nzo is sticking out like a sore thumb as one of a high quality stock. I have made mention of it before that the overseas stocks such as Aus, china, japan etc were more vunerable than nz stocks. Many have seen aus as the greener pasture but sooner or later reality kicks in.

nzo may not make the $1.50 mark but it could still give it a good shake. i only wish i had more money to invest in nzo right now.

whatever happens, its going to be a bloody interesting year for nzo and gloabal markets in general. I take it then NITA that pass the parcel wont be much fun in june then. If you think that why dont you pass the parcel now before the music stops?. The reason the heads have stayed up is that it takes slow thinkers longer to move than normal. I am only kiddin you deserve it. Macdunk

[arjay]

Hmmm, the market is rising today but NZO heads south again. I guess dropping oil prices and a rising $NZ are taking their toll? When's that glowing quarterly due out?

[Nitaa]

dont be surprised to see late in the day another strong close.

NZO seems to be out since with the rest of the market a little bit. where the likes of wpl lost 10% yesterday but made up over half that loss so far today and similar story to other stocks, especially in aust. NZO is really proving itself to be the rock. The other nz or aus stocks are quite likely to benefit most from any short term rise but nzo will will prove itself to be more resilient if there is more downside to come imo

[bermuda]

dont be surprised to see late in the day another strong close.

NZO seems to be out since with the rest of the market a little bit. where the likes of wpl lost 10% yesterday but made up over half that loss so far today and similar story to other stocks, especially in aust. NZO is really proving itself to be the rock. The other nz or aus stocks are quite likely to benefit most from any short term rise but nzo will will prove itself to be more resilient if there is more downside to come imo

I still think something is brewing.

But anyway the financials will really rock a few doubters.

[AMR]

When is the quarterly out?

[peterfindlay]

The activities report is due by the last day of the month. It would be nice to have it earlier, but with the holiday period and the need to get this report printed, I suspect that this is unlikely. I expect a very "full" report.

[Bilo]

I still think something is brewing.

But anyway the financials will really rock a few doubters.

There are a few good posts on Hot Copper under NZO - two recounts of December 12 investor tour to Taranaki hosted by NZO. Have I been burying my head in the sand (more than A BOLLARD) not to have seen these posted here???

"
OGW:Our internal modelling shows the company’s value to be in the vicinity of A$2 per share, although this valuation is contingent upon the high oil prices that are prevailing at present. What do you think the true value of the company is?


DS: We have our own internal modelling and from that we can form a view on what we consider to be the company’s value. I don’t intend to reveal our conclusions from that modelling, other than to say that to even come close to the current share price we would have to seriously reduce our estimates for future oil prices, perhaps to as low as US$40."
"OGW: Turning to Kupe, we know roughly what benchmark crudes the oil from the Kupe project will sell against, but can you give us an indication of what will the LPG and natural gas sell for?


DS: Our natural gas deal is confidential with our contracted buyer, but most observers suggest that the market price in New Zealand sits between NZ$6-7 a GJ at present. LPG sales we would expect to be close to the international LPG spot rate (called Saudi CP) and this can fluctuate a lot, but recently it has been around US$800-900 per tonne.


Gross proceeds for NZO from Kupe approx A $570 million.
Our modelling values NZO at A$2.00 a share."

And heaps more. Two recounts and a valuation. There seems to be some basis to the post - very bullish - is it a con, another HC ramp?

[Bilo]

Sorry about that, I'll see if I can do better...it may take some time..

[Bilo]

Sorry about that, I'll see if I can do better...it may take some time..

There are a few good posts on Hot Copper under NZO - two recounts of December 12 investor tour to Taranaki hosted by NZO. Have I been burying my head in the sand (more than A BOLLARD) not to have seen these posted here???

"OGW:Our internal modelling shows the company’s value to be in the vicinity of A$2 per share, although this valuation is contingent upon the high oil prices that are prevailing at present. What do you think the true value of the company is?

DS: We have our own internal modelling and from that we can form a view on what we consider to be the company’s value. I don’t intend to reveal our conclusions from that modelling, other than to say that to even come close to the current share price we would have to seriously reduce our estimates for future oil prices, perhaps to as low as US$40

OGW: Turning to Kupe, we know roughly what benchmark crudes the oil from the Kupe project will sell against, but can you give us an indication of what will the LPG and natural gas sell for

DS: Our natural gas deal is confidential with our contracted buyer, but most observers suggest that the market price in New Zealand sits between NZ$6-7 a GJ at present. LPG sales we would expect to be close to the international LPG spot rate (called Saudi CP) and this can fluctuate a lot, but recently it has been around US$800-900 per tonne."

Gross proceeds for NZO from Kupe approx A $570 million. Our modelling values NZO at A$2.00 a share”

And heaps more. Two recounts and a valuation. There seems to be some basis to the post - very bullish - is it a con, another HC ramp?

DS was certainly doing the rounds before Christmas.

[twobees]

Hi Bilo

No its not a ramp. It comes from John Campbell's Oil & Gas Weekly (which is very cheap - only costs a couple of hundred dollars a year to subscribe to). He just covers the oilers and knows them all very well. I would encourage everyone to support him as you get a very good independent analysis of the whole oil and gas sector. (Instead of the mealy mouthed brokers who know stuff all).

I have been really impressed with the way this oiler has stood up in the current correction. Solid as a rock. Good reliable upside from here.

Howdy Bemuda! Thought I would come and check in to the real land down under! cheers 2bs

[bermuda]

Hi Bilo

No its not a ramp. It comes from John Campbell's Oil & Gas Weekly (which is very cheap - only costs a couple of hundred dollars a year to subscribe to). He just covers the oilers and knows them all very well. I would encourage everyone to support him as you get a very good independent analysis of the whole oil and gas sector. (Instead of the mealy mouthed brokers who know stuff all).

I have been really impressed with the way this oiler has stood up in the current correction. Solid as a rock. Good reliable upside from here.

Howdy Bemuda! Thought I would come and check in to the real land down under! cheers 2bs

Good to have you here mate.This site can sure be entertaining.plus a fair bit of knowledge.

We are going to have a great year with BOW VPE and , ROMA aren't we!

[bermuda]

Hi Bilo

No its not a ramp. It comes from John Campbell's Oil & Gas Weekly (which is very cheap - only costs a couple of hundred dollars a year to subscribe to). He just covers the oilers and knows them all very well. I would encourage everyone to support him as you get a very good independent analysis of the whole oil and gas sector. (Instead of the mealy mouthed brokers who know stuff all).

I have been really impressed with the way this oiler has stood up in the current correction. Solid as a rock. Good reliable upside from here.

Howdy Bemuda! Thought I would come and check in to the real land down under! cheers 2bs

Good to have you here mate.This site can sure be entertaining.plus a fair bit of knowledge.

We are going to have a great year with BOW VPE and , ROMA aren't we!

[the machine]

just one more load out from tui before the quarterly report is issued

Fri 25/01 17:00 MEANDROS ISSL fpso OTHER sea >> umuroa XX /NIL NIL 232m 52159 0

Sat 26/01 06:30 MEANDROS ISSL fpso OTHER sea >> umuroa XX /NIL NIL 232m 52159 0


that should take loadout total to about 7.5m and production to Jan 31 to about 7.8m.

there must be some taper off in next few months, but even with average 40,000 bpd that equates to over 15m barrels by june 30

usd$150m earnings by june 30 is quite possible.

M

[digger]

there must be some taper off in next few months, but even with average 40,000 bpd that equates to over 15m barrels by june 30. End quote

Well if the average is only 40,000 bpd now the tapering off has already started. However i think it is currently 50,000 and no slowing up in the drawoff. Where did you get the 40,000 from?? I am assuming we are talking current production and not average since startup last July.
Interesting to get a tapering off date from anyone. Unicorn believes in a tapering off this year but i could not get from him any indication of when this might start. My belief is that with the new recoverable current total of 41.5 barrells we will not see a drop in 2008. Also 41.5 is still the very low end of what we will get from TUI. Probably more like 60 so a drop off will be in 2009. However i will be constantly watching for this production slow up to get the first true indications off TUI potential.
Bring on that quartly report.

[digger]

there must be some taper off in next few months, but even with average 40,000 bpd that equates to over 15m barrels by june 30. End quote

Well if the average is only 40,000 bpd now the tapering off has already started. However i think it is currently 50,000 and no slowing up in the drawoff. Where did you get the 40,000 from?? I am assuming we are talking current production and not average since startup last July.
Interesting to get a tapering off date from anyone. Unicorn believes in a tapering off this year but i could not get from him any indication of when this might start. My belief is that with the new recoverable current total of 41.5 barrells we will not see a drop in 2008. Also 41.5 is still the very low end of what we will get from TUI. Probably more like 60 so a drop off will be in 2009. However i will be constantly watching for this production slow up to get the first true indications off TUI potential.
Bring on that quartly report.

[dsurf]

More blocks opened for oil and gas exploration
New 6:30AM Friday January 25, 2008

The Government is opening three more onshore blocks in Taranaki for oil and gas exploration, bringing the areas open for bidding to 12.

Government agency Crown Minerals had encouraged investors by providing free technical data, attracting some newcomers to New Zealand, Associate Energy Minister Harry Duynhoven said.

Bidding on the onshore blocks, excluding the latest three, opened last November. The bidding round will close on May 30.

[duncan macgregor]

Its not what you earn that counts as much as what you do with it once you have earned it. That applies in personal life as much as it does in company life. We all know people with modest incomes that accumulate great wealth. We also know people with huge incomes that end up with nothing. NZO at the moment has a huge income with a modest life span. Some people here only rave on about the huge income forgetting its what they do with it that counts.
They might spend the lot on a bigger much larger drilling program, where success or failure is in the lap of the gods. They might also batten the hatches down swilling at the trough for as long as it takes, and screw the shareholders for more funds on a continual basis.
The company appear to greedy and secretive for me to entrust my money with them, thats why i walked out the AGM and withdrew my funds because of lack of trust. Its what you get back that counts in dividends, or in a rising sp which as you can see has very little to do with company earnings. We all know what they earn but nobody knows the direction or spending policy the one thing that matters in business. Macdunk

[I.T.Ancient]

Very good post Macdunk.

There will be trading opportunities as reports are released of how much NZO is earning. But in the long run there is no indication that they will do anything other than burn it.

[the machine]

digger, sorry my sums were flawed

should be if taper off was from feb 1st then my stab of minimum production for the period through to june 30 = 5 months @ 40,000 bpd = 6.1m
thus looking at about 14m barrels until june 30 in this scenerio.

if however the taper off is several months away then the numbers go up.

M

[dsurf]

Its not what you earn that counts as much as what you do with it once you have earned it. That applies in personal life as much as it does in company life. We all know people with modest incomes that accumulate great wealth. We also know people with huge incomes that end up with nothing. NZO at the moment has a huge income with a modest life span. Some people here only rave on about the huge income forgetting its what they do with it that counts.
They might spend the lot on a bigger much larger drilling program, where success or failure is in the lap of the gods. They might also batten the hatches down swilling at the trough for as long as it takes, and screw the shareholders for more funds on a continual basis.
The company appear to greedy and secretive for me to entrust my money with them, thats why i walked out the AGM and withdrew my funds because of lack of trust. Its what you get back that counts in dividends, or in a rising sp which as you can see has very little to do with company earnings. We all know what they earn but nobody knows the direction or spending policy the one thing that matters in business. Macdunk

They have said they intend to invest in oil & gas exploration or purchases. There are 12 blocks up for sale in Taranaki - they will bid for some - that's why they employed the geologists.

ps it would be great to have you back on board MACD & the 30 day average will be crossed very shortly - you would be able to recoup your previous losses also.

[trackers]

NZO certainly has traded strangely recently. Wasn't really affected by the massive downward spiral, but hasn't bounced back with the correction either.

Thought I'd see a lot more positive action leading up to the monthly. Might pick up some on the asx today..

[Sumnerned]

Wouldn't it be great if NZO could average 1c per day rise over the next 5 months! Is it too much to ask?

[tim23]

Ancient - Duncans post was pathetic be honest inless you are one of his flunkys?

[duncan macgregor]

Ancient - Duncans post was pathetic be honest inless you are one of his flunkys? WHAT YA RECKON TIM HE MIGHT BE AN ANCIENT FLUNKY?.
Macdunk

[tim23]

Probably Duncan!

[manxman]

Meanwhile, back at Picton, CSO APACHE is loading the second string of pipe for Kupe, on schedule.

Mx

[bermuda]

I must say when NZO start to go...they will really go. I have still got a few and just know that something is about to happen.

[the machine]

they are saving the tui production update for release as nothing since Jan 16 with 3 shipments and heaps of production since then.

M

[digger]

they are saving the tui production update for release as nothing since Jan 16 with 3 shipments and heaps of production since then.

M

Machine,normally i know what you are saying but this time i can not reason it out . Who is they?? Are you referring to some report somewhere i have not seen??

[the machine]

Machine,normally i know what you are saying but this time i can not reason it out . Who is they?? Are you referring to some report somewhere i have not seen??


nzo website re tui, was last updated on jan 16

regards

M

[the machine]

Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
To 16 January 2008: Approx 7.2 million barrels produced, 6.7 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 900,000 barrels.

Tui oil is a light sweet crude that

[digger]

Thanks Machine i see now what you are saying. Strange i had just not clicked at how you were writing it. Yes the TUI news has been savied since mid jan and to 2 feb will probably be another 1.5 million barrels. The market can still have a short nap till the next quartly release,which i am sure looking forward to.

[duncan macgregor]

Thanks Machine i see now what you are saying. Strange i had just not clicked at how you were writing it. Yes the TUI news has been savied since mid jan and to 2 feb will probably be another 1.5 million barrels. The market can still have a short nap till the next quartly release,which i am sure looking forward to. You guys waffle on about the wrong things. PEAK OIL,PRICE OF OIL,WHEN IS THE NEXT ANNOUNCEMENT DUE OUT ETC ETC. That has nothing at all to do with the low shareprice of your company that has frozen your money showing no return in either sp or dividends over the last three years. The only people to make money in the last three years are the people that traded.
The company treats its owners the shareholders with contempt hence the low sp. Today it shows a buy signal. so cheer up guys you might end up getting back to a dollar thirty again. Not enough volume for me to buy in, to hard to trade out when it goes back down. I thought you might like to know it shows a buy signal at $1-10 so if you buy, run a trailing 5% stop loss and get out next time instead of bleating on about peak oil. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Yes indead,
today NZO hit the 30day moving average so Mackdunk now has NZO as a buy...
:cool:
.^sc

[digger]

I thought you might like to know it shows a buy signal at $1-10 so if you buy, run a trailing 5% stop loss and get out next time instead of bleating on about peak oil. Macdunk Quote

Thanks for the advice MD. Agree it is a buy signal and will put a realist sell in place at $3-30.,which as you know is tooooo cheap but markets are funny things and the price could but should not fall below that.

[Dr_Who]

Hey McDunk, have you been drinking again? LOL

[777]

I thought you might like to know it shows a buy signal at $1-10 so if you buy, run a trailing 5% stop loss and get out next time instead of bleating on about peak oil. Macdunk Quote

Thanks for the advice MD. Agree it is a buy signal and will put a realist sell in place at $3-30.,which as you know is tooooo cheap but markets are funny things and the price could but should not fall below that.


I like your optimism Digger. $3.30.......

[Viking]

$3.30??? I am not as optimistic, though I would wish NZO to climb~
Realistically speaking~ we'd be quite happy it goes to $1.50 before the first half of 2008 ends.

[Mick100]

having spent three yrs in consolidation, when NZO moves ti's going to move quickly to $2.00+
just have to hope that this happens before option expiry
/

[the machine]

So tomorrow [or today in nz time] we get the kupe update and the quarterly.

NZO have a P/E ratio of 39/1 in todays paper and should soon be well under 10/1, unless that damm sp jumps to $2, in whichcase about 15/1 P/E ratio.

Bring it on!

M

[dsurf]

So tomorrow [or today in nz time] we get the kupe update and the quarterly.

NZO have a P/E ratio of 39/1 in todays paper and should soon be well under 10/1, unless that damm sp jumps to $2, in whichcase about 15/1 P/E ratio.

Bring it on!

M

The quarterly will be good - but wait for the 6 month profit release which will be excelent - the broking houses might even start covering nzo seriously!!

[manxman]

And just to keep the good news rolling: Apache departed with the second 10 km load of Kupe pipe on schedule yesterday morning

Mx

[trackers]

$51mil in, $34mil out just for development... Net operating cashflows $7.8mil

[Bilo]

Looks like a $50M profit for the HY to me.
Well done guys. No wonder it was tough to find production costs.
:)

[the machine]

And just to keep the good news rolling: Apache departed with the second 10 km load of Kupe pipe on schedule yesterday morning

Mx

Thanks Maxman

[dsurf]

Looks like a $50M profit for the HY to me.
Well done guys. No wonder it was tough to find production costs.
:)

Bilo - not an expert but won't it go like this?

Sales 62m

less exploration expense 4.3m
less development expenses 46.5m
less production expenses 7.2m
less admin exp 4.4

= sod all profit for first 6 months because development expenses are written off immediately?

[upside_umop]

development is capitalized and then depreciated over the life of the asset.
the quarterly cashflows doesnt show depreciation.
write offs wrt to exploration will be shown in the annual report.

bilo, that was just for the quarter! :D
=204million annually..as long as that water cut doesnt come in

[Bilo]

So tomorrow [or today in nz time] we get the kupe update and the quarterly.

NZO have a P/E ratio of 39/1 in todays paper and should soon be well under 10/1, unless that damm sp jumps to $2, in whichcase about 15/1 P/E ratio.

Bring it on!

M

I think you could have this very wrong M.

A $100M profit for the year is at a PE of 2.6 or 4 if fully diluted with paid up Options. Options trading up - heads dead - assumption is that $1.50 by June 30 is probable. Just no institution prepared to break ranks yet.

The dry, understatement of a quarterly report - unreadable on Directbroking's NZX news (try adobe on ASX)

[777]

http://www.nzog.net/news/2007/071231%20Quarterly%20Report.pdf


Better presentation.

[Dr_Who]

Dont expect institutions to look at NZO until they indicate a dividend in the near future or market cap large enough to be in the top 40 for indexing. So stop dreaming.

[Bilo]

http://www.nzog.net/news/2007/071231%20Quarterly%20Report.pdf


Better presentation.

AWE's quarterly provides a much fuller description of Tui's success. They are all cashed up record production - NZO would be the same if they didn't have Kupe to look forward to.
:)

[Nitaa]

Solid numbers as expected. Dec quarterly looks impressive. Low 100's was a steal last couple of weeks and the person who bought nzo at $1.16 will have nothing to fear.

Pike is still my biggest concern. The board is tarnished with a couple of members who have past their used by date by a decade or so. On the bright side, the mere fact that coking coal prices will hit record levels will bode well if production isnt too delayed. Personally i dont care if they are not producing yet but as long as they are not substantially delayed.

Kupe is going great guns by all accounts and this is where your long term casflow will come.. heck we wont even need pike...

2009 or 2010...NZO shareholders...would you like dividends with that?

MD.. long time no chat....where will nzo sp be on June 30th?

[duncan macgregor]

NITA at the risk of stirring up the unwashed i will give you a TA perspective of the sp where it has been and where it is likely to go. First of all its not a good trading share. Right now it shows a buy signal regardless of the downtrending market which makes it a risky buy. If we use a long term 180 day moving average for the more conservative investor lets see how the market was over a two year period looking forward. I did say run a 5% stop loss to get out and yesterday was a buy signal before the event so hold me to that so lets compare you holding over the two years or you trading to compare.
1, The FA brain dead investor made nothing sitting on a loss half the time.

March 2006 bought 92c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c= plus = 9.78%
Nov 2006 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c = plus = 7.44%
april 2007 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 134c at 127c = plus = 35.10%
Nov 2007 bought 104c sold when it downtrended from 114c at 108c = plus = 3,84%
JAN 2008 bought at 110c Nita wants to know what comes next a 5% loss or a win

We all want to know that we would all get rich if we did. The one thing i do know is the average trade made 7.84% using a simple TA system which is rather pathetic being kicked out all the time, against making nothing bleating on about peak oil or whatever.
PRC use a thirty day moving average as your buy signal never ever buy a share below that figure. Lots of different TA systems tailer made to suit different companies with different stop loss levels to suit the risk i use 5% to start with until well in profit preferring to play with profits not savings. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

DM.. I am not interested and dont care about TA at the moment. I work too long to look into that so that is not an option.

FA has treated me very well so i am not going to reinvent the wheel. In fact, I also use use TA to complete most of my decision making. The point is, I put FA ahead of TA. If I retire and have time then those roles might be reversed.

I know you using the last 3 years to say NZO is going nowhere. If i want to use the same argument about what TA traders have done this year or the last 6 months then it is highly likely that most are losing a wad full of cash. What is important, whether you use FA, TA, both or have another system is, DOES IT WORK FOR YOU? Your system works for you and mine has worked for me.

As far as oil prices ae concerned i mentioned and espext the oil prices to have a correction in the range of $70 pbo before rounding to well over $100. Time will tell of course.

DM.. You still have said where you think the NZO SP will be at June 30th. ps. there is no prize for guessing it correctly but i believe around $1.30 as mentioned a month ago. That is 20% increase in 5 months or equate to about 50% increae pa. I will take those odds everytime.

[777]

NZO doing their bit.

From "The Independent"

A $33 million trade surplus was recorded in December, just the second in a decade, as oil and dairy shipments contributed to a new high for exports.

Exports were worth $3.677 billion and imports $3.644b.

The result beat market expectations of a $200m deficit.

[tim23]

Dr Who - the institutions already hold the stock, thats been said by the company for some time now

[digger]

From the Activities Report i see TUI is expected to exceed 11million this year. Then from the same report we have it at 12 to get our 1.5 million protion for this year. Even at 12 million that is a 50% jump to the 18 million for the year if TUI can maintain present production. So from all this it seems that the JV are either being very consertive or a real and big drop off in production is expected later in the year. Me thinks better news can be expected about april or May where we will be advised that TUI will be hanging on a little better than now being reported.
The water cut is less than expected is a very gentle way to hid excellent good news .How much less could have been elaberated on if desired but it seems for now this sort of news is being tucked away,yet it tells all,or at least is the best indicator of future production potential.

[sideline]

Digger, AWE give out a bit more detail about production in their report.
Water cut was 32% during December

[bermuda]

Digger, AWE give out a bit more detail about production in their report.
Water cut was 32% during December

Thanks for that. If they are still pumping 50,000 bbls/day with this water cut...well that aint too bad.I thought that by the time this cut took place that production might be down to say 28,000 bbls.

Better than I thought.

[manxman]

Thanks for that. If they are still pumping 50,000 bbls/day with this water cut...well that aint too bad.I thought that by the time this cut took place that production might be down to say 28,000 bbls.

Better than I thought.

If the December water cut was 32% then total fluids would be 73,500 bbls/day, of which 50,000 bbls/day is the good stuff.

Once the water cut gets to 58%, then the limitation of 120,000 bbls/day of total fluids will kick in and oil flows must drop. This may be the only limitation. If so, we may have a long sweet spot on the production curve.

My guess is that as they learn more about handling the individual wells, they will be able to hold the water back much better than the pre-production estimates. Looking good.

Mx

[Nitaa]

NZOG buoyant despite US economy worries
New 5:30AM Friday February 01, 2008

New Zealand Oil and Gas says it had an outstanding December quarter.

While worries about the US economy triggered a flight from risk globally, the small New Zealand company operating in the traditionally risky area of oil and gas exploration and production was buoyed by a high oil price and by a key project coming on stream.

Its Tui development off the Taranaki coast produced 6.4 million barrels of oil in five months and had its reserves upgraded by 50 per cent.

That allowed NZOG to publish a cashflow statement for the three months to December 31 today that showed it had $60 million of cash at the end of the quarter.

[Crypto Crude]

digger, thats a big call of $3.30 on the heads...
Off current market info I would not have thought it would be possible...
but with a PRC 50% increase to reserves, Momoho, no dividends (re-invested into further projects).... then sure......I would have thought that right now a fair value would be half the digger target taking into account development risks of the two current projects in that stage...
Option holders surely think theres something left in the heads...
Im undecided about the markets but investment in safer stocks would be a toss up between NZO and PEM...(both a Mackdunk tip off)...
Hey MD, whos climbing on your shoulders in the Comp....?
haha...
:cool:
.^sc

[Nitaa]

DM...My buy signals are very strong today Expect a good day for trading..not sure what Yogi thinks.

[duncan macgregor]

DM...My buy signals are very strong today Expect a good day for trading..not sure what Yogi thinks. Not a good day for trading NITA. Friday in a scary market is never a good day. Tuesdays in NZ with overseas direction but never mondays or fridays. The average loss in the ASX 2008 competition was 22% with only one person in positive territory which says a lot for having stop losses in place for moments like these. SHREWDY was one place above me with us both being just below average. If ever you get into trading it pays to study best days, best buy times, best sell times for short term trades.
You might be surprized at how predictable it becomes. Your NZO is predictable but not enough volume to be a good trading share. Your PRC will be a buy when it rises above the thirty day moving average with a 5% stop loss. You only have to get it right 60% of the time to make well above average returns. BUY more on the way up until your stop loss takes you out. Macdunk

[digger]

digger, thats a big call of $3.30 on the heads...
Off current market info I would not have thought it would be possible...
but with a PRC 50% increase to reserves, Momoho, no dividends (re-invested into further projects).... then sure......I would have thought that right now a fair value would be half the digger target taking into account development risks of the two current projects in that stage...
Option holders surely think theres something left in the heads...
Im undecided about the markets but investment in safer stocks would be a toss up between NZO and PEM...(both a Mackdunk tip off)...
Hey MD, whos climbing on your shoulders in the Comp....?
haha...
:cool:
.^sc


Hey i was just joking here. MD is always toooo much the other way so i thought i would balance[now where did that name come from at a time like this]things out a little using the other extreme. I really think that the report that had NZO worth 2 dollars Aus about right.

[manxman]

Not a good day for trading NITA. If ever you get into trading it pays to study best days, best buy times, best sell times for short term trades.
You might be surprized at how predictable it becomes. Macdunk

Rule 1 for economics experts: Never make a prediction until after the event

Mx

[duncan macgregor]

Hey i was just joking here. MD is always toooo much the other way so i thought i would balance[now where did that name come from at a time like this]things out a little using the other extreme. I really think that the report that had NZO worth 2 dollars Aus about right. How can you say that DIGGER when Macdunk told you it was a buy at 110c and run a 5% stop loss on it a couple of days ago. Your PRC is 9% below its buy signal at the moment. For all the peak oilers, and global warming bull dusters, and other road kill, i will post it if and when the time comes to buy that.
Macdunk

[AMR]

Whoever bought last week is already up 15%...now that surely beats interest in the bank.

[tim23]

Or close to 75% up on the options from 4c to near 7c!

[arjay]

There's an interesting map in the latest quarterly from Horizon Oil regarding the Maari development. It indicates no Tui oil field, just an abandoned Tui-1 well. Professional jealousy?

[Crypto Crude]

Oh digger,
I thought you were putting it out there so that one day you would be remembered for such a mighty call...
good on you for throwing it back... We have heard it all from him and a few others...
Yeah even MD is slowly changing his ways with NZO because we have heard it all over the last year since i've been here and the company has only gotten better in that time, in my view... and SP has gone up, down and then sideways...
His recommendation of buy on 30 day moving average 'pick' is our first real glimpse of him changing his view and slowly coming round to New Zealand Oil and Gas's mad current undervaluation...->:mad:-< this mad... haha...
but he still stands in the doorway and wont commit fully either way and goes on his usual rant... Im not talking about investment wise and getting him in....Im talking about his recommendation on the future performance of the stock which is what the followers of this stock what to hear!! Ive clearly made my stance and so have many others including yourself...

In the latest commentary, NZO welcomed talk on TUI which they said was an 'outstanding' quarter... and that it was....
BUT they go quiet when talk of Pike comes up.....
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, Macdunk has changed none of his views he says it as it is at that particular time. I only said that NZO had shown a buy signal at 110c and that a person buying should stick a 5% running stop loss on it. Incidently the sp went up to 115c making your running stop at 110c. I dont give a damn about NZO or any other company you should know that by now. I only give it out as i see it at that particular time. I simply dont care about what a company digs up manufactures or destroys i play the market to make money nothing more nothing less. Last time i looked PRC was running 9% below its buy signal so i expect when that changes i might come forth and say thats a buy. Some people look at companies as if they are family members, i look at companies only as a means to an end with the whole lot sitting on the firing line. Macdunk

[bermuda]

SHREWDY, Macdunk has changed none of his views he says it as it is at that particular time. I only said that NZO had shown a buy signal at 110c and that a person buying should stick a 5% running stop loss on it. Incidently the sp went up to 115c making your running stop at 110c. I dont give a damn about NZO or any other company you should know that by now. I only give it out as i see it at that particular time. I simply dont care about what a company digs up manufactures or destroys i play the market to make money nothing more nothing less. Last time i looked PRC was running 9% below its buy signal so i expect when that changes i might come forth and say thats a buy. Some people look at companies as if they are family members, i look at companies only as a means to an end with the whole lot sitting on the firing line. Macdunk

Shrewdy,

Take note of the above. It is all true. Macca knows what's going on, dont worry about that.

Hey Shrewdy, good work getting in and out of MEO. Well read.

[Mick100]

Shrewdy,

Take note of the above. It is all true. Macca knows what's going on, dont worry about that.

.

Yeah, this reminds of the time when macdunk called tranzrail a buy at 45c a few years ago. I had already bought a week earlier at 40c.
As the shareprice rocketed up tp $1.00 then $2.00 and all the way to $3.00, macdunk ranted and raved about what a great call he had made, but unfortunately (for macdunk) he had never actually bought any tranzrail shares when he made his call.:o

It was a great call macdunk

[bermuda]

Yeah, this reminds of the time when macdunk called tranzrail a buy at 45c a few years ago. I had already bought a week earlier at 40c.
As the shareprice rocketed up tp $1.00 then $2.00 and all the way to $3.00, macdunk ranted and raved about what a great call he had made, but unfortunately (for macdunk) he had never actually bought any tranzrail shares when he made his call.:o

It was a great call macdunk

I tell you what. He is a LEGEND.

One of the few who recommended and DID cash up before this crisis.

Well done Macca.

[Toddy]

I tell you what. He is a LEGEND.

One of the few who recommended and DID cash up before this crisis.

Well done Macca.

Uggh, I thought that Macdunk was rambling on about getting out before the Olympics, not yesterday. If he did, then well done to him as it must have taken some unloading to sell down the size of parcels that he would have owned.

Yeah, LEGEND.

[Mick100]

Don't worry macdunk - I'll save some NZOOD's to sell to you in May:D

[Lion]

Wouldn't it be great if NZO could average 1c per day rise over the next 5 months! Is it too much to ask?

Maybe not, Ned. Up 5c last week, 7 the week before. At this rate, they'll make $2 by option date. (Hey MacDunk, I'm sure you will agree that peak oil will get us there. Hang on to your parcels mate!)

[Dr_Who]

Does anyone know if NZO is require to raise funds for PRC capital raising and further exploration?

[Bilo]

Does anyone know if NZO is require to raise funds for PRC capital raising and further exploration?

Dr, you can be a wheeze!

NZO has:

$60M in the bank
$100M unused Kupe advance
$8M positive operating cash flow for the quarter after Kupe development outgoings, or $30M surplus for the year
potentially making a $90M to $100M profit this year ending - June 30th 2008 and no income tax to pay
the cheek to continue to seek over $200M from shareholders for NZOOD conversion with no published use for our money!NZO's committment to PRC has been cut back to $17.5M with this latest move.

They don't need more money - they hardly know what to do with the cash they are swilling in...

(A legacy of Gordon Ward - who is preparing another cash wallow from shareholder's pockets down at PRC.)

[Crypto Crude]

Bermuda,
yes you are right that Mackdunk is a living legend. HE knows I know that... But, I am here to keep him in place...Ive said many times that I rate him as a trader...His 'fully disclosed' performance is uncontestable by others...
How boring is technical analysis... Boy that old dog surely can make technical analysis seem exciting with his beefed up posting...
I prefer to find value in a company, with a tiny bit of charting analysis packed in my sack...

a 5&#37; trailing stop loss is useless with oilers...
these stocks are volatile and 5% could get stopped out before anything happened... I ran AED down 15% or so before it ran 4bagger plus...
same happened with NWE, MEO fell to 90 something cents and then up to $1.60, PRE fell the very day and next after id bought it and then up strong, TEX first fell then went stronger, nzood did something similar...most of my recent money makers in the last year would have been stopped out under mackdunk theory... Id never get anywhere with a stop loss that tight...
lossen that noose MD, thats just strangulation...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, A stop loss is only tight until you are in the money. Play with their money not yours applies to shares as it does to property investment. Penny dreadfull oilers are a different kettle of fish to predictable miners, and must be looked on as more of a gamble.
I dont gamble, much prefer to stick to what is understandable like market sentiment, supply and demand and the price of commodoties. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

Hey man,
Ive never gamled in life in the oil sector bar a few times...The times when ive invested into wildcat drilling, the oiler was downside protected because of other valuable company activities gave it that leverage with small losses to be lost on the downside with big up...Just like what happened with nzood, we had multiple company making exporation drills which turned bad... Share price didnot collapse, so therefore it was a savvy investment decision for all those involved... The returns maynot have been wow, but at the time it was a great tradeoff with large potential returns for all of us NZO investors to gain...usually I invest into a penny oil stock with a project/s ....so it is not gambling, and only is if company is dependant on the drill... I took on MEO large in discovery stage and got cold feet after the 6mcf ann, this example is one exception...
yes I gambled on URA, UOGO, WCP and I guess PRE because I didnot really understand the stock...but at the time I took on great advice...
And I guess I had been gambling with market risk....
to say penny dreadful oiler investment is gambling when you are dealing with me is wrong....
tell me one time when I got a call wrong at that time, in the oil industry and Id be surprised...this doesnot include competition results for obvious reasons...:D
TDO is maybe the only one I got wrong that I can recall, which was very recent and that only fell big because of the markets, and possibly far which was wrong timing... TDO is abit more risky than the usualy SC picks as it doesnot have any projects set in development stage... I like its prospects...
:cool:
.^sc

[Nitaa]

I agree SC. 5 % stop loss in any stock let alone oilers is committing hari curry. 20 trades in 2 months will see you losing 1% of your average investment.

In stable markets and mature conservative stocks then 5% maybe ok.. Like any correction and there will be plenty of them, the shareprice or index will bounce back in a matter of a few weeks. If its more than that then of course there will not be many winners apart from the ones going short.

Aside from all that, FUNDAMENTALLY the FUNDMENTALS are kicking in... positive cash flow, solid balance sheet and a recored breaking P & L will continue to push this share price to record levels by years end. Forget about what is in the past as the pst does not guarentee the future, it merely provides a glimpse of what may happen.

Watch the PR machine kick into action over the coming few months unless the options look like a dead duck.

I had my finger on the buy button for the options over the last couple of weeks but my conservative nature made me resist any unessesary gamble. Even if the sp hits $2.00 by June i have no regrets as i havet lost anything and will still make money on my current investments. However, if i had a spare $20k to risk i would have jumped on the options like a virgin in a brothel. [It is going to be one heck of an interesting year.

Potential NZO investors, snooze and you will lose.

ps.. i see Exon Mobil made a profit of $40b... Could be free sausage rolls at their agm this year with that result.

[AMR]

Agreed, even 7% is too tight. Maybe a resistance-level derived stop is better. Of course you can always buy back in after being stopped out, but TA has it's limitations and is less useful on tiny oilers like the ones SC listed. TA is great for gauging market risk though. As far as commodity companies go NZO is about as safe as they get.

[duncan macgregor]

NITA at the risk of stirring up the unwashed i will give you a TA perspective of the sp where it has been and where it is likely to go. First of all its not a good trading share. Right now it shows a buy signal regardless of the downtrending market which makes it a risky buy. If we use a long term 180 day moving average for the more conservative investor lets see how the market was over a two year period looking forward. I did say run a 5% stop loss to get out and yesterday was a buy signal before the event so hold me to that so lets compare you holding over the two years or you trading to compare.
1, The FA brain dead investor made nothing sitting on a loss half the time.

March 2006 bought 92c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c= plus = 9.78%
Nov 2006 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c = plus = 7.44%
april 2007 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 134c at 127c = plus = 35.10%
Nov 2007 bought 104c sold when it downtrended from 114c at 108c = plus = 3,84%
JAN 2008 bought at 110c Nita wants to know what comes next a 5% loss or a win

We all want to know that we would all get rich if we did. The one thing i do know is the average trade made 7.84% using a simple TA system which is rather pathetic being kicked out all the time, against making nothing bleating on about peak oil or whatever.
PRC use a thirty day moving average as your buy signal never ever buy a share below that figure. Lots of different TA systems tailer made to suit different companies with different stop loss levels to suit the risk i use 5% to start with until well in profit preferring to play with profits not savings. Macdunk Read the last bit NITA you are talking garbage about stop losses. MACDUNK

[Nitaa]

MD.. What last bit?

[duncan macgregor]

MD.. What last bit? The bit that says you start with a 5% stop loss NITA. The idea is you buy more trending up with a 5% stop loss but you lower your stop loss on your initial buy when you are in front. When the time comes to sell its last one first unless the market clearly is in a downtrend then its the lot.
EXAMPLE.
AGM bought at 60c another lot at 65c another lot at 70c each had different stop loss levels. I sold the lot in one hit at 98.5c. Each trade is completly seperate as a buy a sell and cost doing it as if it could have been different companies.
AGM i traded numerous times making three times as much as a buy and blindly hold investor. I gave you an example with NZO for instance a few days ago, the stop loss level started at 5% the share rose from 110c to 115c bringing the stop loss up to 110c.
When the stop loss level gets into profit, and i cant lose money, then i can lower it and buy more of the same starting with a 5% stop loss. If i was buying and if it was a good trading share i might end up with five or six helpings each one running on its own with various levels of stop losses. The most important thing with trading is each trade is kept seperate from the next trade otherwise you would end up in a great mess. Macdunk