NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Nitaa]

and even on an uptrend if it goes down 5% in a couple of days after you buy then you lose the 5% plus the brokerage costs each time. also not forgeting that overnight on a big selloff your 5% may end up being 10% even on a big trading stock.

if you hav used your system in January you would be been killed. even worse if you dip your feet back in only get spat out again the next day or 2. if you run a 5% traling stop loss you of course will have more wins than loses but you will get killed on your brokerage fee. basically you will be like a gigalo...in out..in out...

but hey.. if the system works for you stick to it....its just not my system.

in all honesty duncan, i have seen and spoken to literally thousands of people who have their own system...i can tell you most have no idea whatsover....the problem is when they are making money they convince themselve that their system works because they are making money, either on paper or otherwise. that can be a dangerious thing. however i will acknowledge that with your system this week (joke) minimises your losses so you your risk or suffering big hits are reduced..that is far better than riding something down in the sheer hope it will turn around.

anyway.. my investments didnt suffer the carnage of some of the aussie stocks did. i also acknowledge i wont make the unbeleivable gains that some investors do in buying the aussie speccys.

anyway.. this is about nzo and even though i am biased towards the stock i believe i have good reason to be...

expect another volatile week in the market and many more stop loses to kick in

[digger]

I've got it,never mind the trailing stop loss crap and go for fundamentals.NZO is a sure thing from here on. The last hand held out is the PRC issue then all is earnings from here on.
Current value is just north of 2 dollars and 3-30 once Kupe is producing.Chuck out the stop loss rubbish for this oiler from here in. What do you say MD???

[duncan macgregor]

I've got it,never mind the trailing stop loss crap and go for fundamentals.NZO is a sure thing from here on. The last hand held out is the PRC issue then all is earnings from here on.
Current value is just north of 2 dollars and 3-30 once Kupe is producing.Chuck out the stop loss rubbish for this oiler from here in. What do you say MD??? Digger the brain dead fundamentalist hold forever investor has had his funds frozen in NZO for the last three years. The market place is at high risk of a sudden downtrend in companies accross the board. Peak Oil, Global warming, or whatever turns you on the market is in a high risk zone right now. I only showed you in advance of the event a system that beats yours with the same beloved company. It is like trying to teach a bunch of under privileged dozey kids the nine times table. You being the exception of course. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

I've got it,never mind the trailing stop loss crap and go for fundamentals.NZO is a sure thing from here on. The last hand held out is the PRC issue then all is earnings from here on.
Current value is just north of 2 dollars and 3-30 once Kupe is producing.Chuck out the stop loss rubbish for this oiler from here in. What do you say MD??? Digger the brain dead fundamentalist hold forever investor has had his funds frozen in NZO for the last three years. The market place is at high risk of a sudden downtrend in companies accross the board. Peak Oil, Global warming, or whatever turns you on the market is in a high risk zone right now. I only showed you in advance of the event a system that beats yours with the same beloved company. It is like trying to teach a bunch of under privileged dozey kids the nine times table. You being the exception of course. Macdunk

[777]

Both the Sunday Star Times and Sunday Herald have NZO as their business editorial today.

[Mr Tommy]

Both the Sunday Star Times and Sunday Herald have NZO as their business editorial today.

Yep the sunday star article was great reading, til I read the disclosure at the end - the article author works for McDouall Stuart.

[tim23]

Implying what?

[Steve]

Implying what?

Could be wearing 'rose-tinted' glasses!

Disc: NZO

[tim23]

I thought it was objective so did the poster above until he noted the author?!

[zigzag]

Yep the sunday star article was great reading, til I read the disclosure at the end - the article author works for McDouall Stuart.

I thought the opinion piece was an honest appraisal of where nzog is at the moment. Just because John Kidd works for McDouall Stuart is no reason to denegrate it. His connection is fully disclosed, and you can read into it what you like. I think you have read far too much into it.

[tim23]

Thats what I was saying too - you just said it better Zigzag!

[duncan macgregor]

Why dont some of you look at the reality of what is going on, without all this bickering about nothing at all. NZO have 31% of PRC and can expect to earn no more or no less than any other shareholder according to percentage. Dead money for a couple of years other than a share price gain up to the first dividend. They have also announced an aggressive growth strategy, which in other words simply means small dividends, if any with your money drilling more wells in the future.
Your investment will rise and fall dramatically in share price along the way, so to argue about who said what, and why, in a sunday paper is just plain stupid. Its not what they have that counts for anything, its what comes next.
Where are they going to explore next, and for what?. That seems to be the only question you lot dont seem to consider the one thing that really matters. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk,
yes dividend decisions are a great deal... and no dividends is the greatest deal of all...
I have been studying the biggest law suite case of all time back then in 87 of Penzoil vs Texaco over the battle of Getty oil assets ....3/7ths of Getty oil was worth 1billion barrels of oil....
Getty oil was concerned about paying a meager dividends totaled at 40million dollars because they would fall behind the oil majors even further...
dividends mean nothing...
stick to campany activities mate...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

mackdunk,
yes dividend decisions are a great deal... and no dividends is the greatest deal of all...
I have been studying the biggest law suite case of all time back then in 87 of Penzoil vs Texaco over the battle of Getty oil assets ....3/7ths of Getty oil was worth 1billion barrels of oil....
Getty oil was concerned about paying a meager dividends totaled at 40million dollars because they would fall behind the oil majors even further...
dividends mean nothing...
stick to campany activities mate...
:cool:
.^sc I agree dividends are for people with no trading knowledge. PRC is not a good NZO investment they should sell out to the gullible when its up and running. Macdunk

[777]

The only reason I posted was to offer the possibility that the thousands of NZ investors that don't even know of the existence of this site( therefore not influenced either way) may have some effect on the current share price. My guess is that if that happens then it would be more likely be tomorrow.

I see that it opened up 2c so it is going in the right direction already.

My guess is it will continue.

[tim23]

Dunacn - when PRC is up and running why would the gullible buy it and why would they be gullible if it was up and running(assume proven)?

[clips]

macd' why is prc not a good investment for nzo.......? what would be guillable about
buying into it..... ?

[duncan macgregor]

Dunacn - when PRC is up and running why would the gullible buy it and why would they be gullible if it was up and running(assume proven)? TIM, Its called manipulating the manipulated, or are you not aware of it. If the mine life is forty years then its worth one fortieth less eack year to deduct from the return. Eventually that comes into the equasion unless they spend up big exploring.
NZO will not stay long term collecting a few lousey dividends that would be a stupid thing to do. They will pass the parcel when it spikes up when the mine is up and running.
It might be worth a look at a take over bid play later in the play. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

macd' why is prc not a good investment for nzo.......? what would be guillable about
buying into it..... ?

It is not a good investment in McDunky's view cos he didnt get any shares at 85 cents ... LOL. Just buy when he says sell and sell when he buys.

[tim23]

Duncan - I suspect a takeover is possible, personally I would prefer NOG to sell down their stake over time, 31% is a bit large for my liking, i fact I have thought about selling my PRC shares as I have pretty good exposure via NOG.

[Steve]

A good day for NZO - up 4c. Possibly due to todays increase in PRC and people digesting last weeks updates over the weekend...

[digger]

A good day for NZO - up 4c. Possibly due to todays increase in PRC and people digesting last weeks updates over the weekend...

Yes good day,good week coming up,good month ,good year and definatly a good decade.
I think now one can say that NZO will never again be under a dollar,which was first said 2 and a half years ago. But things have changed this time as it is no longer baised on what might happen but what is currently happening by way of bank deposits. NZO is just never going to be the same again and it will be the fortunate few that know that now who will benifit. I almost feel some empthy for those still in the dark.
There has been no talk here about the upcoming onshore drilling premits up for grabs at end of MAY 08. These i understand are very interesting as they will seek out deeper depths than were not possible in the past so in a way can be seen as untried virgin fields.
Zorba are you with your geological training care to comment.

[duncan macgregor]

Yes good day,good week coming up,good month ,good year and definatly a good decade.
I think now one can say that NZO will never again be under a dollar,which was first said 2 and a half years ago. But things have changed this time as it is no longer baised on what might happen but what is currently happening by way of bank deposits. NZO is just never going to be the same again and it will be the fortunate few that know that now who will benifit. I almost feel some empthy for those still in the dark.
. DIGGER, I see you have learned nothing at all from holding a share for three years in a bull market where the share price is lower than its high point then. You still think it revolves round how much money they stick in the bank, completely ignoring the reality of what drives the market.
Todays market is a high risk area for any investor with a buy and hold brain dead policy. The market is setting its self up for a crash, the warning signals are staring you in the face. The duck season is upon us, and you are sitting in the middle of the pond quacking a whole heap of nonsense. Before a crash the market behaves in an irrational manner where fundamentals of companies seem to make very little difference.
All the warning signals are there, the smart money is out the market, thats the reason for the low share prices. The traders come back for little dabbles, the brain dead have suffered huge paper losses, and about to suffer some more. Remember keep me honest with my buy signal at 110c, with a running 5% stop loss on NZO and PRC at 103C in a similar trade. I am mostly out the market NZO and PRC dont have enough volume going through the market for me to trade. The big crash happens after the olympics at the end of 2008 when china pulls the rug out from under America. I will only have little dabbles in the market up to then. MACDUNK

[bermuda]

DIGGER, I see you have learned nothing at all from holding a share for three years in a bull market where the share price is lower than its high point then. You still think it revolves round how much money they stick in the bank, completely ignoring the reality of what drives the market.
Todays market is a high risk area for any investor with a buy and hold brain dead policy. The market is setting its self up for a crash, the warning signals are staring you in the face. The duck season is upon us, and you are sitting in the middle of the pond quacking a whole heap of nonsense. Before a crash the market behaves in an irrational manner where fundamentals of companies seem to make very little difference.
All the warning signals are there, the smart money is out the market, thats the reason for the low share prices. The traders come back for little dabbles, the brain dead have suffered huge paper losses, and about to suffer some more. Remember keep me honest with my buy signal at 110c, with a running 5% stop loss on NZO and PRC at 103C in a similar trade. I am mostly out the market NZO and PRC dont have enough volume going through the market for me to trade. The big crash happens after the olympics at the end of 2008 when china pulls the rug out from under America. I will only have little dabbles in the market up to then. MACDUNK

Macdunk,
Every dog has its day and not even the Tall Poppy Brigade will have enough scythes to keep cutting this growth company. The doubters said they couldnt do it but to their credit NZO are set to really perform. If you want to sit on the sidelines that's up to you.

And yes I will be wary after the Olympics.Are you coming to our Chch meeting this Saturday at the DUX de LUX?

[Nitaa]

Duncan.. I feel really sorry for you and especially for your wife...the constant whinging or negativity is astonishing. Your only real argument that this company hasnt made money id referring it to the last 3 years. If you look at the last 5 years you see that smart investors like Digger and Bermuda have made over 300% gains.

meanwhile, most stocks are taking a hammering this year (including your aussie speccy's) but nzo is still climbing. time to let go and put your bad experience of nzo behind you. perhaps you were the one of only a handful of people that losts on nzo in the past few years but to try and bring people down to your level is really unfair. Just becauase your neighbour brought a fancy new car doesnt mean you have to.

meanwhile down at the nzx exchange things continue to chug along nicely

[tim23]

Buy and hold is brain dead - since when?

[duncan macgregor]

BERMUDA, I wont be at your get together on sat sorry. I will be at the national convention at Auckland later in the year. NITA and TIM are fronting up to make a speach about the brain dead. My mates SHREWDY and STRAT will be taking STRUTTING lessons by E-MAIL from yours truely to make an entrance walking in like winners. NZO are donating the amnunition free of charge for macdunk to be placed in stocks for at least half the duration of the get together for a chuck up. All in all Christchurch cant compete with a blow up dolphin floating about in the open sewer that runs through the village. Last time we played PASS THE PARCEL but that was no fun when we twigged there was nothing in it. Macdunk

[bermuda]

BERMUDA, I wont be at your get together on sat sorry. I will be at the national convention at Auckland later in the year. NITA and TIM are fronting up to make a speach about the brain dead. My mates SHREWDY and STRAT will be taking STRUTTING lessons by E-MAIL from yours truely to make an entrance walking in like winners. NZO are donating the amnunition free of charge for macdunk to be placed in stocks for at least half the duration of the get together for a chuck up. All in all Christchurch cant compete with a blow up dolphin floating about in the open sewer that runs through the village. Last time we played PASS THE PARCEL but that was no fun when we twigged there was nothing in it. Macdunk

Nice!

Will have to catch up with you in Auckland perhaps. When is your next meet? I am up in Auck next week and in March 10-13.

[rotweiller]

CSO Apache sailed from Picton 0630/4th with the third and presumably the last pipe shipment for Kupe.
Cheers

[the machine]

CSO Apache sailed from Picton 0630/4th with the third and presumably the last pipe shipment for Kupe.
Cheers

thanks for this info.

once installed then another significant part of the project is derisked

M

[Nitaa]

Meanwhile down at the Taranaki farm, every man and his sheep are starting to climb into NZO. Why? They are seeing it from their own eyes.

[Oiler]

CSO Apache sailed from Picton 0630/4th with the third and presumably the last pipe shipment for Kupe.
Cheers

It is the last pipe string to be installed and Apache has the good weather in its favor. The Picton base are packing up and heading home.
One more progress notch in the belt for this "big project".

The parallel drilling is the next bit of excitement .......... nobody has been near this resovoir for 20 odd years. Imagine this, "earthquake fractures the fault and Tui is now pumping the oil" :D NZO still wins ....:)

[Steve]

It is the last pipe string to be installed and Apache has the good weather in its favor. The Picton base are packing up and heading home.
One more progress notch in the belt for this "big project".

The parallel drilling is the next bit of excitement .......... nobody has been near this resovoir for 20 odd years. Imagine this, "earthquake fractures the fault and Tui is now pumping the oil" :D NZO still wins ....:)

And yet your signiture shows that you don't hold NZO, Oiler?!

[duncan macgregor]

I expect my stoploss to be breached on thursday with NZO. Remember i said buy at 110c it went up to 117c making the stop loss at 112c. The DOW is in deep downtrend along with most other markets including the ASX in todays market. I expect its your turn tomorrow. I also said PRC showed a buy signal at 103c which went up to 105c to be stopped out at 100c. Lets see if i get it right in advance of the event your shares will follow whatever happens in AUSSIE today. Macdunk

[Hoop]

I expect my stoploss to be breached on thursday with NZO. Remember i said buy at 110c it went up to 117c making the stop loss at 112c. The DOW is in deep downtrend along with most other markets including the ASX in todays market. I expect its your turn tomorrow. I also said PRC showed a buy signal at 103c which went up to 105c to be stopped out at 100c. Lets see if i get it right in advance of the event your shares will follow whatever happens in AUSSIE today. Macdunk

It mightn't be too bad on the NZX tommorrow if the DOW recoups most of it's losses tonight (NZtime).....but (shudder) ...if

..the DOW falls again by another couple % tonight, there won't be many happy NZX investors on thursday morning.

NZO held up reasonable well during the last correction..will it do the same this time around?

Good chance there could be some of that red stuff on the NZX floor tomorrow....

[duncan macgregor]

HOOP, NZO is down 3.9% in AUSSIE today bringing it it line with other stocks. Looks like my stop loss at 112c will be activated tomorrow giving me a 2% gain less brokerage against the braindead taking another big hit. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

I am more interested in the oil price and its trend. The oil graph seems to be top heavy at this stage and I will be keeping an eye on that. If oil prices can hold up, then NZO is ok, but if it starts to fall and continues a falling trend, I will be concern for NZO and PRC.

[Steve]

If oil prices can hold up, then NZO is ok, but if it starts to fall and continues a falling trend, I will be concern for NZO and PRC.

How does a down-trend in the price of oil affect PRC?! :confused:

[Oiler]

And yet your signiture shows that you don't hold NZO, Oiler?!

Steve..point taken. I have traded in and out of NZO and haven't always updated my signature :)

[bermuda]

Steve..point taken. I have traded in and out of NZO and haven't always updated my signature :)

Hi Oiler,
Suggest sell your FBU and put the lot on Roma (RPM ) I see you already have VPE.

See you Saturday. ( I really think we need some name tags eh? )

NZO still putting the $$$$ in the bank and Kupe going as per schedule in excellent weather.Plus the rerating of PRC ( when the new coal price is released ) will lift NZO.

[Unicorn]

HOOP, NZO is down 3.9% in AUSSIE today bringing it it line with other stocks. Looks like my stop loss at 112c will be activated tomorrow giving me a 2% gain less brokerage against the braindead taking another big hit. Macdunk

This is reading a lot into two small trades. NZO has minimal liquidity on ASX. Spread is 96.5/102, with just 681 shares sold at 96.5. NZX may or may not move in concert with ASX.

If you are suggesting Digger is braindead if he does not sell his NZO stake tomorrow to pick up just the 2% gain you would be happy with, then you are clearly showing your ignorance.

[Nitaa]

I expect my stoploss to be breached on thursday with NZO. Remember i said buy at 110c it went up to 117c making the stop loss at 112c. The DOW is in deep downtrend along with most other markets including the ASX in todays market. I expect its your turn tomorrow. I also said PRC showed a buy signal at 103c which went up to 105c to be stopped out at 100c. Lets see if i get it right in advance of the event your shares will follow whatever happens in AUSSIE today. Macdunk
Heres some of the reasons why your system is flawed (also note that no sysptem is perfect)

If the Dow Tumbles tonight then your $1.12 stop loss may end up kicking you out below $1.10. If it opens at $1.08 then you may bail at that price or even lower if there are not many buyers.

Next point. Lets say you get spat out at $1.12 or less, the market may rebound which means that you have been kicked out and the SP ends up higher on the day that what you got for your shares.

With the volatility the way it is, having a 5% stop loss is like giving candy to a kid.. I am really surprised you dont see it this way.

Question MD? Your last post suggest you have brought NZO at $1.10 but ealry you said it was a buy signal at that price.. have you or have you not.

From a fundamentalist point of view, i mentioned that anything around the $1.00 mark is a screaming buy. From a fundamentalist point of view you have missed out on an easy 10 to 15% gain.

ps. I only found out that the Dow took a little hit last night about 1 hour ago. Thats why as medium or long term investor i dont need to worry about the fluctions that happen on a daily basis that give day traders nightmares.

[duncan macgregor]

Question MD? Your last post suggest you have brought NZO at $1.10 but ealry you said it was a buy signal at that price.. have you or have you not.

From a fundamentalist point of view, i mentioned that anything around the $1.00 mark is a screaming buy. From a fundamentalist point of view you have missed out on an easy 10 to 15% gain.

ps. I only found out that the Dow took a little hit last night about 1 hour ago. Thats why as medium or long term investor i dont need to worry about the fluctions that happen on a daily basis that give day traders nightmares. NITA, You are well aware that i have no investments in the NZX and am nearly all cashed out in the ASX no nightmares sorry. The market is heading for a crash sooner rather than later.
The duck season is now open. All i did was try to scare a few quackers out the pond before they get obliterated. Most TA traders are out the market the buy signals are few and far between with sell signals showing on most companies.
I told you NZO was a buy in a high risk market hence the tight stop loss. You choose to ignore any sell system because you know better than the market, which is an extreme high risk method that you are oblivious to. Big crunch in the market later this year, you should have made hay last year when the sun was shining. Macdunk

[peterfindlay]

On NZOG's website this morning, Tui production to 31 January 2008 is advised as approx 7.9 million mmbbl. To 30 June 2008, a Tui production figure, in excess of 15 mmbbl (NZOG share 1.875 million) now seems likely. If so, NZOG's net revenues are likely to be $190 - $210 million.

There appears to be a sensitivity of net Tui revenue of approx $10 million per 800,000 bbl of Tui oil production (i.e. NZOG share 100,000 bbl).

The Tui JV partners will soon need to upgrade the production estimates, as the published numbers of 11 mmbbl to 30 June 2008 will be reached by 31 March 2008. I note that in the most recent updates to the ASX, for the June 2008 year, AWE have mentioned 11 - 12 mmbbl, PPP have mentioned 12 - 13 mmbbl, NZOG refer to production that is likely to exceed 11 mmbbl but in the recent activities report refer to their share of Tui production for year ended 30 June 2008 as 1.5 mmbbl i.e. 12 mmbbl total Tui production. External consensus views on Tui production appear to reflect a worst case scenario of 14 mmbbl, more likely 15 mmbbl, but perhaps 15.5 mmbbl.

[winner69]

so MacDunk is out of NZO at the mo

Oh no ..... only managed to seel some of his shares so far ... volume so light ... I'd say you still holding some at the end of the day

[duncan macgregor]

NITA at the risk of stirring up the unwashed i will give you a TA perspective of the sp where it has been and where it is likely to go. First of all its not a good trading share. Right now it shows a buy signal regardless of the downtrending market which makes it a risky buy. If we use a long term 180 day moving average for the more conservative investor lets see how the market was over a two year period looking forward. I did say run a 5% stop loss to get out and yesterday was a buy signal before the event so hold me to that so lets compare you holding over the two years or you trading to compare.
1, The FA brain dead investor made nothing sitting on a loss half the time.

March 2006 bought 92c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c= plus = 9.78%
Nov 2006 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c = plus = 7.44%
april 2007 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 134c at 127c = plus = 35.10%
Nov 2007 bought 104c sold when it downtrended from 114c at 108c = plus = 3,84%
JAN 2008 bought at 110c Nita wants to know what comes next a 5% loss or a win

Macdunk I can now complete the above trade which was stop lossed out at 112c for a 2% gain less brokerage. Not much i know but beats holding for three years with no increase in share price or dividends during a bull market. Macdunk

[dsurf]

I can now complete the above trade which was stop lossed out at 112c for a 2% gain less brokerage. Not much i know but beats holding for three years with no increase in share price or dividends during a bull market. Macdunk

Or were you stopped out at $1.11 for a 0.9% gain less brokerage - big result - yawn

[duncan macgregor]

Or were you stopped out at $1.11 for a 0.9% gain less brokerage - big result - yawn I could be equally as chidish and say that exactly three years ago the share price was $1-25 giving the fundies a loss of 10.4% holding in a bull market. If you weigh that against five buys and five sells for 57.16% up doing a very basic TA system spelt out for even the dumbest fundamentalist to understand, you might see why i think buy and hold, without a sell system is only for the brain dead. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Yes quite correct winner. Dendeng on his volume its most likely he got spat out at $1.11. What is the point? meanwhile you system lost you what 4% with PRC and made 1% out of NZO? Thats a net loss of 3% my friend if you brought the same amount of shares in both co's. Now maybe in a couple of weeks your buy signal will kick in around $1.20 only to be stopped out at $1.15... opps another hit for DM and the cycle continues..... meanwhile the fundamentalists is waiting to cath the crumcs from the traders who get kicked out only to buy at bargain prices.

what makes like so interesting dm is your actions and other similar traders actions simply reinforces my belief that a good stock fundamentally will be picked up both those aiting to pounch on your misfortunes.

[Nitaa]

I could be equally as chidish and say that exactly three years ago the share price was $1-25 giving the fundies a loss of 10.4% holding in a bull market. If you weigh that against five buys and five sells for 57.16% up doing a very basic TA system spelt out for even the dumbest fundamentalist to understand, you might see why i think buy and hold, without a sell system is only for the brain dead. Macdunkwahoo..dm the great magician pulls out a 57.16% just doing basic TA. Just think what you could achieve doing some advanced stuff

[Nitaa]

March 2006 bought 92c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c= plus = 9.78%
Nov 2006 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 106c at 101c = plus = 7.44%
april 2007 bought 94c sold when it downtrended from 134c at 127c = plus = 35.10%
Nov 2007 bought 104c sold when it downtrended from 114c at 108c = plus = 3,84%
JAN 2008 bought at 110c Nita wants to know what comes next a 5% loss or a win

Macdunk

MD. What happened to the above? is this your back end testing or real life?

for a man who says he dislcoses everything all of a sudden you make gains every time with nzo...you havent disclosed your losses though. what happened when you bought at $1.19 only to take a hit selling for under 90 cps. the great dm was spitting chips, walked out of the agm with not even a sausage roll for your losses.

fair dinkum md...

[Bixbite]

Beer on the Beach with David Salisbury?
To introduce a slightly different subject.

When building a house or celebrating a new addition to the family it is tradional in NZ to put a few beers on the site or go out with friends for a drink.

NZO directors and management should celebrate the first one million barrels of oil with shareholders – I think nominating a time and a place and organising internet acceptances would be in order.

Start a tradition we have Kupe’s 1M Barrels of Oil equivalent and Pike’s first 1M tonnes of the world’s finest coking coal to look forward to also. Or NZO can continue being nameless and faceless to their keenest, if not the richest, supporters.


(PS. I had to check the web site for the name of our new CEO as I hadn’t heard it mentioned for a while, David Salisbury)

We haven’t heard any news about this 1M celebration.

Or Bilo is still looking for the website for David Salisbury?

Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, You cant twist facts to suit your incompetance. ON 3rd of feb 2008 i said PRC showed a buy signal at 103c and to run a 5% running stop loss on it. It went up to 105c which brings the stop loss level up to 100c. I thought you would like to know that. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

NITA, You cant twist facts to suit your incompetance. ON 3rd of feb 2008 i said PRC showed a buy signal at 103c and to run a 5% running stop loss on it. It went up to 105c which brings the stop loss level up to 100c. I thought you would like to know that. Macdunk
Fair call. I didnt know you said it on the 3rd.

However i see you failed to acknowledge your past failings with nzo and are only preneding to make a truckload out of trading nzo with your 57%. sorry macdunk....you remind me of Joe King. you are not his brother Wayne?

[Lion]

David Scoffham buying today - must be a good sign, as you say, Bermuda, when directors buy.

Must be a good time for the Company to be buying back its own shares too, isn't it? BHP has been doing it. Put a floor under the sp, a rising floor maybe, since Mr Market just doesn't seem to appreciate where the price should be, on fundamentals.

[the machine]

There looks like being a bit of low pressure system hanging around tui in next few days.

as regards kupe pipe laying that should be mostly finished tomorrow, well before any bad weather hits.

M

[tim23]

Duncan - you seem to miss the point that most holders of the stock are long term value investors not traders/punters. Gee for someone who says they don't own the stock you take plenty of interest in it!

[morpork]

can you feel the love,its just a share,its only money
NZO needs to make 1.50 by June,despite selling 15000 today I still think they will,and do I care if they don't
who needs sniper when the pressures on

[Steve]

Gee for someone who says they don't own the stock you take plenty of interest in it!

He's keeping us HONEST! :D

[Snow Leopard]

What is the point of having an ignore facility http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/Ignore.png when you guys:
a) respond to his drivel;
b) quote his drivel.
Heh?

Since joining this site we have been through various MacDunk systems:
1) The seduce the tea-lady or failing that, a truck driver, for inside company information system;
2) The 20% Timeline (pat pending) system;
3) The I know I said you never need to invest outside of NZ but any idiot can double his money on Aussie resources system;
and now we have:
4a) The I do not understand FA so I will assume everybody is like I think Snoopy is rant in association with;
4b) The Phaedrus et al is such a wally when all you need to do for any stock is buy when the SP goes above the 30MA and sell on a 5% stop loss for any share system coupled with;
4c) The China will bring down the world after they have won all the medals at the Beijing Olymipics system.

I would not mind except that he posts this stuff, repetitively, over and over again, more than once, you get my drift?, on every frickin thread.
And you guys respond!!

Meanwhile, back in the real world.....

best wishes (even to MacDunk)
paper Tiger

[Nitaa]

PT. hands up. guilty as charged. Actually i love it. I find it really amusing how this guy pulls these amazing numbers out when he doesnt even invest in the stock.

To me it would be really boring if this thread was only being spoken of the good things to come. Duncan, although hes niave, a few sandwiches short of a picnic, changes his system like he changes his kilt offers a comedy within this thread.

nzo reminds of a song by UB40 call guilty. Well i am guilty for baiting the one and only DM. I am also guilty of falling in love with this stock. but this stock is different i have to say. over the years its hit my g spot more times than my ex husband. How can i not fall for such a wonderful stock such as NZO. It has made more money for me than my ex, its always there when i wake up in the morning, never answers me back and i dont need to give NZO viagra to get a decent rise out of from time to time.

nzo will do me for the next couple of years before its time to latch on something younger and fiestier.

So NO, i will not ingnore DM. Hes to amusing for that.

PT. You cracked me up with your reference to the 20% timeline (Pat pending) hehe

[duncan macgregor]

I can take it that you will all be at the national convention in Auckland then. The main attraction being MACDUNK in stocks, with rotten tomatoes supplied by NZO for a ten minute chuck up. Would be nice to see in real life some of your faces with real names attached.
When you cant beat the arguement revert to personal abuse, then form little gangs only shows weak characters with very little up top. Look forward to seeing you all there it will be fun, should beat what CHRISTCHURCH can offer. We can play PASS THE PARCEL AGAIN only this time we might put something worthwhile in the parcel to make it interesting.
Macdunk

[dsurf]

What is the point of having an ignore facility http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/Ignore.png when you guys:
a) respond to his drivel;
b) quote his drivel.
Heh?

Since joining this site we have been through various MacDunk systems:
1) The seduce the tea-lady or failing that, a truck driver, for inside company information system;
2) The 20% Timeline (pat pending) system;
3) The I know I said you never need to invest outside of NZ but any idiot can double his money on Aussie resources system;
and now we have:
4a) The I do not understand FA so I will assume everybody is like I think Snoopy is rant in association with;
4b) The Phaedrus et al is such a wally when all you need to do for any stock is buy when the SP goes above the 30MA and sell on a 5% stop loss for any share system coupled with;
4c) The China will bring down the world after they have won all the medals at the Beijing Olymipics system.

I would not mind except that he posts this stuff, repetitively, over and over again, more than once, you get my drift?, on every frickin thread.
And you guys respond!!

Meanwhile, back in the real world.....

best wishes (even to MacDunk)
paper Tiger


Fair enough - but I suspect Macd loves it!!

[dsurf]

I can take it that you will all be at the national convention in Auckland then. The main attraction being MACDUNK in stocks, with rotten tomatoes supplied by NZO for a ten minute chuck up. Would be nice to see in real life some of your faces with real names attached.
When you cant beat the arguement revert to personal abuse, then form little gangs only shows weak characters with very little up top. Look forward to seeing you all there it will be fun, should beat what CHRISTCHURCH can offer. We can play PASS THE PARCEL AGAIN only this time we might put something worthwhile in the parcel to make it interesting.
Macdunk

Here's my contribution for the parcel. It is from the NZ prospectus that was lodged for the issue of the free nzood option for each two shares held.

see page 3

titled "Summary of important dates"*

Last date for exercise of 2008 Options 30 June 2008

* All dates are indicative only and may be varied by NZOG without prior written notice, subject to the Listing Rules, although an announcement of any changes will be made on ASX and the NZSX.

ie pass the parcel could last years!!!!!!

(like this thread)

[Xerof]

Before anyone gets over-excited - that statement only related to the timing of the issue - NOT the expiry

[dsurf]

Before anyone gets over-excited - that statement only related to the timing of the issue - NOT the expiry

Not so sure about that - firstly it clearly states "all dates"- secondly - NZO must comply with the listing rules which state that a special resolution is required to alter the rights and obligations of the options & be passed by vote by the holders of the heads & the options with no value transfer occurring where the holders of the heads suffer.

I am just pointing out that NZO have a huge track record of altering everything at every juncture and that no-one (not even the guru) knows what they will do next.

p.s. anyone know what the dividend policy is - if it exists?

[Nitaa]

off the top of my head i thought they said returning about 50% of the profits but that is subject to various other matters. Clearly they would use up their tax credits first before any divy, keep aside any further capex that would be required and other matters. IMO the 50% doesnt really apply as there is always money needed to be injected into further exploration and development.

[airedale]

Before anyone gets over-excited - that statement only related to the timing of the issue - NOT the expiry

Perhaps BRW can clarify this point.

[777]

NZO
08/02/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1611 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: One Millionth Barrel of Oil Sold

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has sold its one millionth barrel of oil
from the Tui Area Oil Fields off the Taranaki coast.

NZOG is the New Zealand-based partner in the Tui development with a 12.5%
share. The field began production on 30 July 2007 and has averaged over
40,000 barrels of oil a day.

The oil is shipped by tanker directly from the offshore production facility
to refineries in Australia and south-east Asia.

The tanker British Merlin is being loaded today, taking total sales to date
past the eight million barrel mark - with NZOG's share being one million
barrels.

Tui oil is a light sweet crude that receives a premium price. The average net
price received by NZOG per barrel since the start of production is
approximately US$89.

In November 2007 proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields
were upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than
the estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was
sanctioned. NZOG's share of the 2P reserves is 5.2 million barrels.

Estimated production for the 2007/08 financial year is now expected to exceed
12 million barrels in total, with NZOG's share being over 1.5 million
barrels.

[Steve]

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has sold its one millionth barrel of oil from the Tui Area Oil Fields off the Taranaki coast.

A milestone that the doomsayers of years gone by, have said would never happen...

Well done NZO!

[tim23]

I don't buy it - expect, abuser, backtracker, hindsight person, friend, joker = its all happening and he/shes Duncan - in real life you can't be that person but I guess this is different!

[zorba]

.
What a SCREAMER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Back over US$91 / barrel
.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/QM/38
.

[the machine]

the 1m barrel news $ average net usd$89 = approx nz$113m to nzo.

as a proportion of the market cap nz$300m it is very significant.

if you look at all the things due by end of may in 16 weeks time [2 weeks nog time/]
half yearly reports march/april.
16 weeks more production from tui - another 600,000 plus barrels for nzo = usd$50m approx.
another tui upgrade?
kupe production holes finished
kupe wildcat to drill
prc nearing the coal
coal benchmark prices set

then sp will be $2 and the options will be well in the money.

M

[JBmurc]

the 1m barrel news $ average net usd$89 = approx nz$113m to nzo.

as a proportion of the market cap nz$300m it is very significant.

if you look at all the things due by end of may in 16 weeks time [2 weeks nog time/]
half yearly reports march/april.
16 weeks more production from tui - another 600,000 plus barrels for nzo = usd$50m approx.
another tui upgrade?
kupe production holes finished
kupe wildcat to drill
prc nearing the coal
coal benchmark prices set

then sp will be $2 and the options will be well in the money.

M

-Sounds good to me- Machine- Should be alot higher than the current prices IMHO but as anything in NZ'er energy & resources is viewed as risky (or should i say not Brick's mortor Safe as overpriced houses)We will have to wait till some savy investors lead the way and buy the company out cheap.

[manxman]

the 1m barrel news $ average net usd$89 = approx nz$113m to nzo.

as a proportion of the market cap nz$300m it is very significant.

M

To look at the nett - the FPSO lease is about $125 million for the first five years. Say us$500,000 per week. NZO share $62,500 per week. Tea and bikkies for head office costs about that. There is serious margin in this operation.

And most, if not all, of the oil that was subject to the collar hedge has now moved through the system, so the average oil price achieved will firm a bit.

British Merlin (115,000 tonnes dwt) loading oil probably means a 600,000 barrell shipment to Singapore, meaning that they are still producing more than enough to meet their regular 300,000 barrell shipments to East Coast Oz. Even reading between the lines it still looks good.

So profitable that the average advisor will be mindlessly repeating "If it sounds to good to be true - it probably is." There is going to be one hell of a feeding frenzy when Mr Market wakes up.

Mx

[boysy]

The question has to be asked why hasnt mr market woken up yet i mean all the financials have been provided to the market and little has really changed im still holding btw

[duncan macgregor]

The question has to be asked why hasnt mr market woken up yet i mean all the financials have been provided to the market and little has really changed im still holding btw The market is driven by perception not fundametalist one and one makes two idea of relative value. Honest disclosure of what is actually going on plus what company future intentions in going forward are. Thats what drives a share price up or down. Macdunk

[arjay]

The market is a savvy beast. Any investor with their head screwed on will ask what's in it for them if they invest in a stock. NZO is fundamentally a good stock, however with a flat SP and no divvies, NZO shareholders are currently not sharing in their companies good fortune. As MD says, NZO needs to spell out how investors are to be rewarded before interest grows. Then again, NZO are doing fabulously so don't really need shareholder support just now.

[digger]

Checking with the NZO Aus page i see the Apache has finished playing the KUPE pipework. This is under heading of key milestone completed. It sure is a key derisking completed but it remains a shame we have to read about it from AUS.

[sideline]

from sharechat:

ShareChat News: Key milestone for Kupe Gas Project
By NZPA
Tuesday 12th February 2008

The Kupe Gas Project has reached a key milestone, with the final stage of the main offshore gas pipeline being laid by one of the world's most advanced pipe-laying vessels, the Apache.

Kupe joint venture partners, including operator Origin Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited ("Origin"), Genesis Energy, New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd and Mitsui E & P Australia Pty Ltd, today completed the final stages of the pipe laying, offshore from Hawera. The Apache, operated by Technip, uses a reel-lay method for installing small and medium diameter pipelines. This allows a pipeline, which has already been welded together onshore, to be reeled off the back of the ship easily and quickly with much less risk of weather downtime.

The pipeline has a diameter of 12 inches and links the offshore wellhead platform to the onshore production station near Hawera though a tunnel drilled under the cliffs off the Taranaki coast.

The Apache is 122.9 metres long, 23.3 meters wide and sits at a depth of 8.7 metres. Powered by two 20-cylinder diesel engines, the Apache sleeps 95 people and has several recreation rooms, a games room and sauna on board.

Kupe Gas Project Director Peter Ashford said this was the first time that a vessel like the Apache had been used in New Zealand to lay an offshore gas pipeline.

"The laying of the pipeline marks a major achievement for the Kupe Gas Project," Ashford said.

"The three 10 kilometre sections of pipeline have been laid quickly, without any serious delays. This is the result of meticulous planning and preparation by the whole Kupe Gas Project team." After dropping off crew in Wellington last week the Apache is now heading to other projects in the North Sea.

Participants in the Kupe Joint Venture are:

*50% - Origin Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited - a wholly owned subsidiary of Origin Energy Limited

*31% - Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)

*15% - New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)

*4% - Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd.

[the machine]

good news with the pipe line layed.

M

[tim23]

Only if a chart/moving average tells you its good news!

[Steve]

Only if a chart/moving average tells you its good news!

You got it, Tim! ;)

[Nitaa]

You got it, Tim! ;)my 30 day macdunk moving average is useless thi month as there is only 29 days in it.. very weak..moving on..

i am going to stick my neck out here on a prediction. nzo and the world markets will go bananas later this year. big spike for a year to 18 months then the almighty colapse in in 2010.

[Steve]

i am going to stick my neck out here on a prediction. nzo and the world markets will go bananas later this year. big spike for a year to 18 months then the almighty colapse in in 2010.

Yogi will be proud of you. ;)

[digger]

my 30 day macdunk moving average is useless thi month as there is only 29 days in it.. very weak..moving on..

i am going to stick my neck out here on a prediction. nzo and the world markets will go bananas later this year. big spike for a year to 18 months then the almighty colapse in in 2010.


NZO will be at or near it's all time peak in in 2010 in relative terms,so no bad talk thankyou about world ecomomy going bellyup.

[airedale]

An all time peak sounds like a good time to bail out. I will have my parachute ready.:)

[Hoop]

my 30 day macdunk moving average is useless thi month as there is only 29 days in it.. very weak..moving on..

i am going to stick my neck out here on a prediction. nzo and the world markets will go bananas later this year. big spike for a year to 18 months then the almighty colapse in in 2010.

Nita you have me interested......2010 ??

What going to happen in 2010 to cause the almighty collapse???

I would be interested to where did you got that info from as I haven't seen any relating specifically to a 2010 collapse.
:)
Hoop

[Nitaa]

how does 1929 fit?

[Nitaa]

Nita you have me interested......2010 ??

What going to happen in 2010 to cause the almighty collapse???

I would be interested to where did you got that info from as I haven't seen any relating specifically to a 2010 collapse.
:)
Hoop
Nothing more than speculation. No i am not the great Nostradamus. well actually i dont really know if he was great or whether people syncronised occurances after the event.

It is something i have thought for well over 5 years. dont know why. the only real reasons i can give are based on the following.

1/ nearly all major crashes occur after a steep spike, beit property commodity or otherwise.

2/ im in the belief that we are about 70% of the way through a bull market, correction at present.

3/ if it is a correction then a big spike will occur straight after (meaning anytime from now until about 18 to 24 months)

4/ China and India will be the biggest losers when the crash does come. It is odds on to happen by end of 2010. China may even be the catalyst for a global meltown rather than the US.

all said and done we may enter a decade or so bear market. But all the signs are there. No Yogi or MD did not have a word in my ear

[Hoop]

[quote=Nita;185004]Nothing more than speculation. No i am not the great Nostradamus........

Thxs Nita for the reply
Well, if it becomes a reality and in 2010 it all falls apart.... I think you shoud be credited with huge foresight and be up there with the best of them..Nostradamus included :):)

[dsurf]

[quote=Nita;185004]Nothing more than speculation. No i am not the great Nostradamus........

Thxs Nita for the reply
Well, if it becomes a reality and in 2010 it all falls apart.... I think you shoud be credited with huge foresight and be up there with the best of them..Nostradamus included :):)

Looks like 2008 is doing well as "year for the short" let alone waiting til 2010

[Nitaa]

[quote=Nita;185004]Nothing more than speculation. No i am not the great Nostradamus........

Thxs Nita for the reply
Well, if it becomes a reality and in 2010 it all falls apart.... I think you shoud be credited with huge foresight and be up there with the best of them..Nostradamus included :):)I hope im wrong of course.

[zorba]

.
Never mind the navel gayzing,

.

Check this out ....... oil above US$95 / barrel ...... What a Screamer of an Upward Trend !!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/QM/38
.

[sideline]

.
Never mind the navel gayzing,

.

Check this out ....... oil above US$95 / barrel ...... What a Screamer of an Upward Trend !!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/QM/38
.

Looks even better on the daily chart - seems a good floor has been put in at US$86 and a retest of
US$100 is on the cards next

[Lion]

Tapis is back over $US100.

NZO finished at 115 today, up 14c in 19 trading days since its last minimum of 101.

A bit short of that cent a day, Summerned, but not by that much!

[tim23]

That would be great gee those options might kick in!!

[zorba]

.
ANOTHER SCREAMER for NZOG ...... check out this posting from the PRC thread:

.........................

Prices Jump

Spot prices for coal used in steelmaking have jumped to $270 a ton, almost triple the annual contract price, while the power-station coal spot price climbed to $150, Tex said. Annual contract prices this year ``will inevitably skyrocket,'' exceeding $200 for steelmaking coal and $100 for power-station coal, the Japanese industry newsletter said.

...................................

[Sumnerned]

Just back from a week in the Catlins, so pleasantly surprised to see WTI back over US$95. Also agree with Zorba's implied view that HCC very likely over US$200 this year. The precedents have been set. Great for PRC and NZO.

The pressure on oil prices will come (as usual), when the northern driving season is in full flow, say August. It could well be over US$120 around then.

My wish/estimate on the cent a day rise for NZO didn't anticipate quite the level of carnage we've had in the overall market these last four weeks, Lion! But in the circumstances we've done damn well.

Apart from the whims of Mr Market, the wish of NZO to reward the option holders may be quite strong, as the options weren't a free gift. So, like Tim and JK, I'm holding on to hope!

[arjay]

the wish of NZO to reward the option holders may be quite strong, as the options weren't a free gift.

Can you clarify this point Sumnerned? The ODs were distributed free on a 1:2 ratio to heads. Why do you say they were not a free gift?

[Sumnerned]

My memory's not the best! But I seem to remember we got the options when we took up a rights issue @$1, and the market price at the time was in the low .90s. I entered the shares @$.9 and the options @$.1 in my portfolio records since $.9 would have been my bid price ex options. I hope this makes sense!

[Bilo]

My memory's not the best! But I seem to remember we got the options when we took up a rights issue @$1, and the market price at the time was in the low .90s. I entered the shares @$.9 and the options @$.1 in my portfolio records since $.9 would have been my bid price ex options. I hope this makes sense!

I confirm Sumnerned, the original ODs cost shareholders ~10cps. The 10c came off the heads on announcement. It is more difficult to see how much subsequent option issues affected prices.

Hence my previous comments about the OD situation. The directors have perhaps a last opportunity to give some positive direction wrt the ODs with the Half Year announcement expected within the next two weeks.

I continue to believe that the OD's will convert, and one assumes that the directors do also as no other guidance has been forthcoming. The heads will at least "scrape over" the June 30 150cents per head share line. But the heads should be over $2 now. Unless there is takeover action, the share price will continue to be manipulated down.

Who is offering to sell the large parcel of shares at 1.15 anyway?
Is this another short being purchased back?
Does the NZX publish any indication of shorting actions on NZX listings?

[the machine]

I confirm Sumnerned, the original ODs cost shareholders ~10cps. The 10c came off the heads on announcement. It is more difficult to see how much subsequent option issues affected prices.

Hence my previous comments about the OD situation. The directors have perhaps a last opportunity to give some positive direction wrt the ODs with the Half Year announcement expected within the next two weeks.

I continue to believe that the OD's will convert, and one assumes that the directors do also as no other guidance has been forthcoming. The heads will at least "scrape over" the June 30 150cents per head share line. But the heads should be over $2 now. Unless there is takeover action, the share price will continue to be manipulated down.

Who is offering to sell the large parcel of shares at 1.15 anyway?
Is this another short being purchased back?
Does the NZX publish any indication of shorting actions on NZX listings?


nzo have applied for and been granted a waivure to lodge interim result and half year accounts in march/ april - thus no news on this for another 4 - 6 weeks, maybe 7 weeks.


M

[Bixbite]

Refer to the QUARTERLY ACTIVITIES REPORT TO 31 DECEMBER 2007: -

· Preliminary Announcement March 2008
· Interim Report April 2008

Cheers

[manxman]

The directors have perhaps a last opportunity to give some positive direction wrt the ODs with the Half Year announcement expected within the next two weeks.


Wasn't there an indication that the Half Year report was going to be late because of the change in accounting standards? Like end March/early April?

It should still be well timed for boosting the SP and dragging the ODs over the line. Things I'd like to see


An announcement of a 2000% increase in profit
An indication that the full year figure will border on the obscene
The tax losses written into the accounts
The tax losses almost all used up
A corporate manoeuvre, either capital return or dividend announcement


They must be banking about $5 million per week, and they need to be generous with the bait if they want to haul in the $200 million odd that the OD conversion will bring in. They need to be seen as a beacon of hope amid the carnage on the market.

Mx

[Awamoa]

Manxman I agree with your wishlist but I cant see that paying a dividend will help the ODs.
Am I missing something?

[Steve]

Manxman I agree with your wishlist but I cant see that paying a dividend will help the ODs.
Am I missing something?

They could time the dividend so that it is announced before the options are exercised, but recorded and paid after the options are exercised?

A good incentive to exercise them then?

But does NZO require these additional funds from the options exercise? Perhaps not, now that they have the cashflow?

[arjay]

Manxman I agree with your wishlist but I cant see that paying a dividend will help the ODs.
Am I missing something?

A dividend will help the ODs if the size of the dividend represented a good return on $1.50 investment.

[zorba]

Refer to the QUARTERLY ACTIVITIES REPORT TO 31 DECEMBER 2007: -

· Preliminary Announcement March 2008
· Interim Report April 2008

Cheers

Yes. looks like Half Yearly report will be dealyed ....

But has PPP also applied for a similar delay wrt its obligations to the NZX ??

If not then we should get a good steer on NZOG's earnings from PPP half year report at end Feb.

[zorba]

But does NZO require these additional funds from the options exercise? Perhaps not, now that they have the cashflow?


IMHO .... logical use for OD conversion funds would be to buy out PPP.

PPP currently has a market capitalization of approx NZ$147m at share price = 25 cents

NZOG and DS have indicated that growth by acquisition is a company aim.

If not a complete cash buy out then maybe part cash plus script swap.

Cash component allows major shareholders (eg Tattersfield and Radford plus others) to get cash out plus exposure to diversified energy and coal projects through NZOG script.

PPP is a shell company with limited horizons, so a cash plus script swap should appeal to PPP shareholders as a combined NZOG/PPP company makes alot of sense given the already significant overlap of activities and shareholders.

Tattersfield group will have to support the merger as they have a 11% blocking stake in PPP.

So if the ODs are converted, then this gives NZOG some grunt for acquisitions, either PPP or other prospects.
.

[the machine]

Yes. looks like Half Yearly report will be dealyed ....

But has PPP also applied for a similar delay wrt its obligations to the NZX ??

If not then we should get a good steer on NZOG's earnings from PPP half year report at end Feb.

more like mid march if 2007 is to go by.

M

[Bixbite]

Yes. looks like Half Yearly report will be dealyed ....

But has PPP also applied for a similar delay wrt its obligations to the NZX ??

If not then we should get a good steer on NZOG's earnings from PPP half year report at end Feb.

PPP’s half-year report will only show the earning from its Tui project but no PRC. I strong believe NZOG should have a not small amount of capital gain from / after the IPO of its Pike River Coal.

Cheers

[Nitaa]

IMHO .... logical use for OD conversion funds would be to buy out PPP.

PPP currently has a market capitalization of approx NZ$147m at share price = 25 cents

NZOG and DS have indicated that growth by acquisition is a company aim.

If not a complete cash buy out then maybe part cash plus script swap.

Cash component allows major shareholders (eg Tattersfield and Radford plus others) to get cash out plus exposure to diversified energy and coal projects through NZOG script.

PPP is a shell company with limited horizons, so a cash plus script swap should appeal to PPP shareholders as a combined NZOG/PPP company makes alot of sense given the already significant overlap of activities and shareholders.

Tattersfield group will have to support the merger as they have a 11% blocking stake in PPP.

So if the ODs are converted, then this gives NZOG some grunt for acquisitions, either PPP or other prospects.
.Zorba. There hs ben speculation before about a posible takeover or merger with PPP. If that is to happen in the near future then it will repesent a total conflict of interest. Remember nzo sold its PPP shares to AT if i am not mistaken. therefore for nzo to buy back or create a merger would leave a sour taste in many nzo's mouth. For NZO to buy PPP would now be unethical..

[zacman]

I see that the undisclosed buyer at $1.15 has finally been satisfied.

That should allow the price to push on.

zacman

[zacman]

opps, I mean seller, not buyer.

zacman

[Wiremu]

Nita,

I think you will find that NZO's shares in PPP were all sold on market. There was no deal with AT.

[dsurf]

I see that the undisclosed buyer at $1.15 has finally been satisfied.

That should allow the price to push on.

zacman

Whoever the buyer was of >300K to clean out $1.15 left 1.3K ofn the sell, ie they do not want the price to go up as they are accumulating & seem to have been right throught the market slump of the last few weeks. I would not be surprised to see a small trade at $1.14 when the matching occurs later so that NZO closes at $1.14 - so they can let the offer build up again etc

[Sumnerned]

Often these large sellers of rising shares are institutions rebalancing their portfolios. Especially prevalent in a falling overall market. It also helps them to improve their apparent performance in the short term.

ACC has been a notable seller of NZO over the last year or so.

[digger]

Often these large sellers of rising shares are institutions rebalancing their portfolios. Especially prevalent in a falling overall market. It also helps them to improve their apparent performance in the short term.

ACC has been a notable seller of NZO over the last year or so.

True ACC have been a seller and sadly will be making a profit as most of these were bought in placements. One was the 90 cent and the second at a dollar. Both had options attached so ACC could now sell out and be in profit. That is unfortunate as it will depresse the price now and be seen by ACC in the near future as a bad decision with the current income piling up. There is a small chance the large seller is someone else but ACC was over 5% at one time and has been selling down,so if i am wrong in thinking it is currently ACC there past actions is what is pointing to them.

[tim23]

A NOG/PPP merger/takover would hardly be unethical simply sensible, would give the combined group a nice slice of TUI! Then perhaps an AWE takeover of the new group?

[zorba]

.
Tim,

Right on, ur on song, I dont know wot Nita is on about, the distribution of NZOG's previous holding in PPP was like five years ago (feels like that time ago), so thers no issues in my mind abt a revisit to that storey, if it works for both companies then why not, sertainly the overhds in running PPPP cud be cleaned out and booked to the bottom line for the merged company.

Xcus da spellung dats wot happens rftr a cupla glass's da best NZ red !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bermuda]

.
Tim,

Right on, ur on song, I dont know wot Nita is on about, the distribution of NZOG's previous holding in PPP was like five years ago (feels like that time ago), so thers no issues in my mind abt a revisit to that storey, if it works for both companies then why not, sertainly the overhds in running PPPP cud be cleaned out and booked to the bottom line for the merged company.

Xcus da spellung dats wot happens rftr a cupla glass's da best NZ red !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well you can bet that it wont be AWE taking over NZO/PPP...unless the shareholders agree that is.
See you at the conference. And we can then get some more info.

[tim23]

Why not an AWE takeover of NOG/PPP?

[Nitaa]

Why not an AWE takeover of NOG/PPP?NZO going gangbusters and looking strong.

My remaining options look sick but my finger is getting warmer to press the "buy" button.

Sideshow Bob and Bermuda. How would you 2 care to joing me in a threesome at some stage. If you can arrange one more to join us then a foursome maybe more appropriate. I am currently overseas but will be back in March. Heck its been so long i hardly know how to find the hole.

[Nitaa]

Sorry guys, that last comment was meant to be a private message. Others please ignore

[zorba]

.
Weird ....

Is Nita's avatar a good guide to reality ????

[Bixbite]

.
Weird ....

Is Nita's avatar a good guide to reality ????

Virtual reality is the truth of the false.

[dsurf]

Whoever the buyer was of >300K to clean out $1.15 left 1.3K ofn the sell, ie they do not want the price to go up as they are accumulating & seem to have been right throught the market slump of the last few weeks. I would not be surprised to see a small trade at $1.14 when the matching occurs later so that NZO closes at $1.14 - so they can let the offer build up again etc

Got it wrong - they waited til this morning & crossed the random! amount of 1,807

[duncan macgregor]

.
Weird ....

Is Nita's avatar a good guide to reality ???? WEIRD is the understatement of the year. GAWD only knows what goes on at these NZO get togethers. Hope you boys come up with a decent excuse for us more conservative types that frown on threesomes.
Only jokng guys NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE EH?. Macdunk

[dsurf]

WEIRD is the understatement of the year. GAWD only knows what goes on at these NZO get togethers. Hope you boys come up with a decent excuse for us more conservative types that frown on threesomes.
Only jokng guys NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE EH?. Macdunk

They are looking at a foursome maybe macd???

[QOH]

Couldn't you just edit your post? It's hard to ignore it.

[dsurf]

Couldn't you just edit your post? It's hard to ignore it.

Why best post all year. Energy companies are drilling holes all the time!

[Nitaa]

Sorry people. I am not sure what all the hoo haa is. I cant edit it and i dont know how to delete it so how?

What is the issue here. Simply talking about a game of golf with Bermuda and Side Show Bob as we all have played the game before. Maybe there is another golfer so we can tee up a foursome.

[digger]

Oil is back knocking on the 100 dollar door again,after hitting 98.34 this morning. Guess it is just sinking in that a US resession will slow oil rise but not stop it. Just too many economies are now more independent to the US than in the past.Also many parts of the world are in fact doing very well so the demand for oil is too tied to there economic growth for fossil fuels to drop for long.

[Nitaa]

Digger. Opec is also looking to cut back poduction. Take that how you like.. Peak oil?. Either way oil prices are set to soar.

Should be a positve day for nzo

[digger]

Digger. Opec is also looking to cut back poduction. Take that how you like.. Peak oil?. Either way oil prices are set to soar.

Should be a positve day for nzo

OPEC is looking for any excuse to hide their post peak reality .I think it is more likely to be decline dack than cut back.

[digger]

Crude Oil Rises to a Record $100.10 on OPEC Production Outlook

By Mark Shenk and Grant Smith

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $100.10 a barrel in New York on speculation that OPEC will cut production when it meets next month.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to meet on March 5, may cut output as winter heating demand wanes, oil ministers from Algeria and Iran said in the past week. Oil has rallied 15 percent from this year's low of $86.99 a barrel reached on Jan. 23.

Crude oil for March delivery rose $4.41, or 4.6 percent, to $99.91 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude for April settlement rose $3.39, or 3.6 percent, to $98.30 on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract reached a record $98.70 a barrel today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net .

Looks like things are starting to move ,last time i looked a few hours ago it was 98.30 ,now over the 100

[Financially dependant]

OPEC is looking for any excuse to hide their post peak reality .I think it is more likely to be decline dack than cut back.

Big older fields like Ghawar will last a lot longer with lower extraction rates (greater then the mathematical rate of extraction), so OPEC are nursing there remaining valuable reserves for the best return.

The price is only going one way!

[sideline]

There is a new presentation out on the NZOG website
under http://www.nzog.net/NZOG%20Company%20Profile%20February%202008.pdf.

It mentions that the Mohomoho prospect (adjacent to Kupe area) is to be drilled in
the 2nd quarter of 2008.

[zorba]

.
GO NZOG GO ......

POO at the ton !!!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/QM/38
.

[digger]

I got it wrong that ACC was the big recent seller. Looks like they are coming back again with todays announcement that ACC is back over 5%. Well thank god for some insight from ACC as NZO is not one to sell too much of at the moment,unless you have a very good reason.

[sideline]

.
GO NZOG GO ......

POO at the ton !!!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/QM/38
.

it is the first time a futures contract closed over USD100 (at $100.01)

[digger]

There is a new presentation out on the NZOG website
under http://www.nzog.net/NZOG%20Company%20Profile%20February%202008.pdf.

It mentions that the Mohomoho prospect (adjacent to Kupe area) is to be drilled in
the 2nd quarter of 2008.


From this presentation it seems that production from TUI has speeded up.
On 8/2 /08 we were told NZO had sold it's one million barrels. That meant on that date the TUI field had loaded onto the British tanker Merlin it's 8 million barrel. From today's presentation production is given as 8.6 million. Therefor in ten or eleven days the production was going somewhere between 54500 to 60000 barrels. The only problem i have with these figures is that one is loaded onto a tanker the other is production,which could mean that the one million barrel could have been producted earlier giving more than a 11 day period. In any event it is safe to assume that TUI is going at at least 50000 a day.
I still say this 50000 a day will continue for 2008.

[Nitaa]

From this presentation it seems that production from TUI has speeded up.
On 8/2 /08 we were told NZO had sold it's one million barrels. That meant on that date the TUI field had loaded onto the British tanker Merlin it's 8 million barrel. From today's presentation production is given as 8.6 million. Therefor in ten or eleven days the production was going somewhere between 54500 to 60000 barrels. The only problem i have with these figures is that one is loaded onto a tanker the other is production,which could mean that the one million barrel could have been producted earlier giving more than a 11 day period. In any event it is safe to assume that TUI is going at at least 50000 a day.
I still say this 50000 a day will continue for 2008.

Should the price of oil climb further then also expect an upgrade on tui reserve in time for my lovely oppies to be converted.

[tim23]

The options are showing no sign of a lift; hate to concede Duncan may be right about these!

[duncan macgregor]

The options are showing no sign of a lift; hate to concede Duncan may be right about these! C-MON TIM, dont give up so easy. The trouble is market perception, plus the fact that NZO have enough money to keep swilling at the trough for some considerable time. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

why would they in this market

$1.50 is too steep for the time remaining and every day the premium will shrink, its a losing bet



casino type bet.Yes very big bet.. its like place a bet at 4 or 5 to 1. Becoming more and more an outside bet. But.. not over until the fat lady does her thing.

I have made my money on the options and prepared to loose just a few thousand on remaining ones.. insurance has paid and riding free.

[gambier33]

SectorSurfa, it's never a losing bet. The market adjusts the value of the option so that it is always a reasonable bet.

[Unicorn]

The options are showing no sign of a lift; hate to concede Duncan may be right about these!

There is still a long way to go - over 4 months in fact. The NZO share price is up by 16 cents in the last month, and it requires another 33c to put the options in the money. Spudding Momoho, which will probably happen before option expiry, could temporarily add around 10c to the NZO share price - based on previous drills. The price of oil may be quite different by June - either up or down. And further sub-prime and other external problems could quite easily knock 20 cents off the heads price too. So it is too early to call at this stage.

NZO has done very little thus far to promote their share price, and there are many things they could do over the next few months - if they want the options to be converted.

It is worth considering that if the options are in the money, heads will have returned about 30% in 4 months. That is a great annual return, in my book, without an inordinate amount of risk.

[Sumnerned]

In addition to any M and A activity, couldn't NZO use some of their cash receipts to purchase shares in explorations? Or am I missing something?

[Unicorn]

In addition to any M and A activity, couldn't NZO use some of their cash receipts to purchase shares in explorations? Or am I missing something?

They already do that. The Toke permit (PEP 38499) is a recent example. An extremely promising permit to have a share of.

[Snow Leopard]

There is a new presentation out on the NZOG website
under http://www.nzog.net/NZOG%20Company%20Profile%20February%202008.pdf.

It mentions that the Mohomoho prospect (adjacent to Kupe area) is to be drilled in
the 2nd quarter of 2008.

What the presentation actually says:
Momoho prospect expected to be drilled second quarter 2008

Full marks to any one who can spot the difference.

regards
Paper Tiger

[Sumnerned]

They already do that. The Toke permit (PEP 38499) is a recent example. An extremely promising permit to have a share of.
Thanks for that, Unicorn, it's always good to have a knowledgeable opinion on the oil prospects. My point, however, is that there has been a lot of discussion on this thread to the effect that since the start of Tui production, NZO has got more money than it needs. M and A has been discussed, particularly in light of the background of the new board member. My query is rather whether NZO might buy into existing permits/licences, either in NZ or elsewhere.

[Nitaa]

Thanks for that, Unicorn, it's always good to have a knowledgeable opinion on the oil prospects. My point, however, is that there has been a lot of discussion on this thread to the effect that since the start of Tui production, NZO has got more money than it needs. M and A has been discussed, particularly in light of the background of the new board member. My query is rather whether NZO might buy into existing permits/licences, either in NZ or elsewhere.There is new acerage up for grabs this year that i am sure nzo have tendered for. By mid year we will have a clue as to who is successful at what.

[arjay]

What the presentation actually says:
Momoho prospect expected to be drilled second quarter 2008

Full marks to any one who can spot the difference.

regards
Paper Tiger

You are correct PT. When NZO use the word 'expected', it means there's a good chance Momoho will be drilled and if it is drilled it might be completed as early as the second quarter. I think the same sort of vocabulary was used for the Felix prospect.

[dsurf]

If NZO are serious in thier stated intention to raise the share price they need to be proactive. This morning (so far) the buy & sell queue will match at $1.16 because someone will hit the buy quote at $1.16. If nobody enters a bid at $1.17 before 10.am then the opening price will be $1.16 down 1 cent. This is absurd given record oil prices mentioned in the papers radio etc. It also falls into the hands of the professional trader or broker who is accumulating a stake and wants the share price to NOT rise.

If NZO's broker (who has been given permission to accumulate under the terms of a buyback) bid $1.18 then the share price will open at $1.17.

This process needs to be looked after by a professional broker.

NZO management are failing shareholders miserably.

They will not release dividend policy or protect the shareprice or actively take action to achieve the stated aim of option conversion and the inflow of funds that could be spent on exploratory acreage / producing assets etc.

They seem to think that "presentations" work. Wrong market interaction and buying raise the share price. Their is huge amounts of money being generated. Why state last year that you want the options converted and do nothing.

The presentations are not working - Abn ambro and First NZ do not cover NZO and issue research - so they will not be telling clients to buy.

What does work is market action that generates a rising share price and positive sentiment.

Do not hide behind presentations any longer as a "demonstrable course of action" - do something that will work - buy the shares if you think they are seriously undervalued and worth over $1.50

Please put the shareholders money where the managements mouth is and do a buyback.

I would also ask all shareholders to email or phone nzo immediately and ask when a buyback will occur using $5 $10 of the $180? cashflow generated when "all funds are in place for our 3 major projects"

Do not let them hide anymore you own part of this company! (I have emailed & phoned & intend to at least once a month going forward)

[digger]

You are correct PT. When NZO use the word 'expected', it means there's a good chance Momoho will be drilled and if it is drilled it might be completed as early as the second quarter. I think the same sort of vocabulary was used for the Felix prospect.


Ladies and gentlemen EXPECTED in nog language means good intentions and in the fullness of time. Now as a follow on but will be seen as a change of subject----
Actually it is this extra time requirement coming from every quarter,except TUI, that leads me to believe that NZo needs to evolve the NZOOD into NZOOE in a ratio fair to both heads and options to allow for this time slippage. Also as NZO is hughly undervalued the heads need continuing support from options to head off what could be a steal takover.
As a disclaimer i would say my personal NZO stake is about neutral given less shares on issue if options laspe should compansate in head lift.However it is irrsponsible to expose the heads to any chance of a cheap takeover just for a short term short in the arm.If the heads were somewhere north of 2-50 to 3 dollars this option pretection would be less essential.
Comments.

[dsurf]

http://www.nzog.net/contactus

is the internet address for shareholder enquiries - there are only four boxes to fill out.

[digger]

dsurf,will do but lets wait for now until after the half is out,could be some stated direction there.Expected late March or thereabouts.

[sideline]

Commodity Price Change % Time

WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 100.740 0.730 0.73 14:47

Spot price closed over USD 100!

[duncan macgregor]

Its not looking good for pass the parcel. I would suggest the sounds of silence be the band, and beleave it if you like the tune played. They now dont care about the share holders, they have enough swill in the trough to last for ages without worrying about you lot. Whatever happened to that SHEALAH that was to keep you up to date with what was going on?. It surprizes me that some people are now actually starting to wake up when i thought that some people can be fooled all the time. Macdunk

[777]

Not trading at present. Buys 117/ sells 116

NZO
21/02/2008
MINE

REL: 1001 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Disclosure Notice

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that at 1400 hours on 20 February,
the 12-1/4 inch section of the Kupe South 6 (KS-6) well had reached a depth
of 2,862m MDRT (measured depth from rotary table). The planned total depth
for the section is 2,935m MDRT. Upon completion, the 9-5/8 inch casing will
be run and cemented.

Drilling began at 22:40 hrs on 19 December 2007. Progress of all three
development wells in permit PML 38146 is summarised as follows:

Well 22 inch 17 inch 12.25 inch 8.5 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m
KS-7 566m 2,000m 3,116m
KS-8 568m 2,184m 3,429m

Each of the three production wells will be drilled by the ENSCO 107 jack-up
rig to a vertical depth of approximately 3,400 metres.

The Kupe Project drilling campaign is being undertaken on a "batch-drilling"
basis. This process involves completing the same section of each of the three
wells before proceeding to the subsequent section and is a more efficient
approach than drilling the wells separately. Drilling of the three wells is
expected to take around five months to complete.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development will
comprise production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station. The Kupe Project is
expected to be completed by mid-2009 and produce approximately 254 petajoules
of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light
oil (condensate).
End CA:00160783 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-02-21:10:01:08

[sideline]

Ensco states in its Rig Status Report that Origin have also
three one-well options with it's current Kupe contract.
Does anyone know what they will be used for (one might be
Mohomoho, but what are the others?)???

[COLIN]

I am totally against any suggestion of extending the exercise date of the options. You can't go shifting the goalposts, or announcing an extension of playing time, just a few minutes before the game finishes. "Options" are just what they say, and they are a speculative investment. Buyers know the rules of the game. The issuance of new options would be a different matter of course, requiring shareholder approval.
Besides, why expect the company (us shareholders) to be interested in having more capital injected into the company when it clearly has totally adequate funding? Capital is a most expensive source of funding.

DISC: Hold 80k NZO. Have held/traded NZOOD in the past - and made money - but ditched them months ago when I could see the direction things were heading.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=COLIN;
Besides, why expect the company (us shareholders) to be interested in having more capital injected into the company when it clearly has totally adequate funding? Capital is a most expensive source of funding.

DISC: Hold 80k NZO. Have held/traded NZOOD in the past - and made money - but ditched them months ago when I could see the direction things were heading.[/QUOTE] Its nice to see you are on to it. Why have more capital tied up in a company as secretative as this.
Its blind mans buff right now, without diluting the existing shares with more just to have capital sitting in the bank with no clear direction of forward direction. I cant see even the most gullible swallowing the bait. If they used profits for a buy back, which would raise the sp to allow the options to be excercised then they would be back to square one with a higher sp and happy shareholders. I dont think they are smart enough for that if i did i would buy into it myself. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Its nice to see you are on to it. Why have more capital tied up in a company as secretative as this.
Its blind mans buff right now, without diluting the existing shares with more just to have capital sitting in the bank with no clear direction of forward direction. I cant see even the most gullible swallowing the bait. If they used profits for a buy back, which would raise the sp to allow the options to be excercised then they would be back to square one with a higher sp and happy shareholders. I dont think they are smart enough for that if i did i would buy into it myself. MacdunkDuncan duncan duncan.. have you misled some of us or is that i typo i see.

You referr to shareholders as us. does that mean you are now the proud holder of shares in nzo?

other week your system said there was a buy signal around $1.10 (i think) then your trailing stop loss kicked in and spat you out at $1.11 (not enough buyers at $1.12 where you stop loss should have been). Meanwhile, oh great MD, you have missed the surge from around a $1.00 where the smart investors jumped in to now around $1.15 or whatever it is. Big disapointment in your system there big guy. I was hoping your unique system was going to prove me and everyone else wrong.

I think your wrong about clear direction MD. you have known the direction for the last 3 or 4 years. WEhat has happened is delays with Pike and increase in capex for Kup and Pike. Pretty much par for the course by most accounts.

What you seem to think is what are they going to do with all the money. Isnt that dependant on many variables, such as farm-ins to be negotiated, drilling rigs availability, prices, new permits, possible aqusitions, mergers and the list goes on. Many of which do and should mean in confidential until the time is right to inform the market.

on a slight sperate note. The word "expected" from nzo i have found in many cases to be nore more than hot air. going back around 3 years ago if i am not mistaken. i am sure most posters know what i mean. I certainly dont want a repeat of that. That is when TR lost my vote of confidence as a person.

[tim23]

Dr Who - you have that reliably? Broker bias and a 30% gain if a few names removed?

Colin - I tend to agree but they have extended the options before and i was annoyed as I had sold mine off juts weeks prior!

[Nitaa]

hmm, i see, its a quote from someone else. initially i was a real shock for the macdunksta to hop on board the nzo train.. anyway... what you should consider in your trading strategy is take away any personal views and simply trade using your now famous TA system. That way you could have mad a cool 15% gain in less than a month with more to come.

[duncan macgregor]

hmm, i see, its a quote from someone else. initially i was a real shock for the macdunksta to hop on board the nzo train.. anyway... what you should consider in your trading strategy is take away any personal views and simply trade using your now famous TA system. That way you could have mad a cool 15% gain in less than a month with more to come. Nice of you to take notice NITA but dont forget the 5% stop loss. I am not a shareholder only hold one share PEM which i paid to much for simply on a take over or merger hunch. Its gone in to a trading halt so at least i got that right even although my timing was wrong. I fully expect a few mini crashes followed at the end of the year with a big one so other than a few mini plays i am on the sidelines. Macdunk

[arjay]

Dr Who - you have that reliably? Broker bias and a 30% gain if a few names removed?

Colin - I tend to agree but they have extended the options before and i was annoyed as I had sold mine off juts weeks prior!

Tim23, those original options that were extended (can't remember if they were OA's or OB's) were issued with the reasonable expectation (ie noises made by NZO) that they would not expire until after the Opito wildcat was drilled. The drill was delayed so to be fair to optionholders the Co. was able to delay the expiry date till after the drill was completed. I don't think the current options were issued under any expectations so would be surprised if NZO are able to (let alone have any interest in) extending their life. Besides, as someone else has said, the Co. is fully funded now so why would they, or headholders (unless they also held options), have any interest in diluting the company?

[Nitaa]

Tim23, those original options that were extended (can't remember if they were OA's or OB's) were issued with the reasonable expectation (ie noises made by NZO) that they would not expire until after the Opito wildcat was drilled. The drill was delayed so to be fair to optionholders the Co. was able to delay the expiry date till after the drill was completed. I don't think the current options were issued under any expectations so would be surprised if NZO are able to (let alone have any interest in) extending their life. Besides, as someone else has said, the Co. is fully funded now so why would they, or headholders (unless they also held options), have any interest in diluting the company?You may be right. I guess it all depends on what their aim is. Do they need the options to be converted. Previous indications are that they have a strong desire to but that may have changed. If i recall, the word aqusition was on the cards but again, that may have also changed. Either way, rock n roll.

[peterfindlay]

If NZO are serious in thier stated intention to raise the share price they need to be proactive. This morning (so far) the buy & sell queue will match at $1.16 because someone will hit the buy quote at $1.16. If nobody enters a bid at $1.17 before 10.am then the opening price will be $1.16 down 1 cent. This is absurd given record oil prices mentioned in the papers radio etc. It also falls into the hands of the professional trader or broker who is accumulating a stake and wants the share price to NOT rise.

If NZO's broker (who has been given permission to accumulate under the terms of a buyback) bid $1.18 then the share price will open at $1.17.

This process needs to be looked after by a professional broker.

NZO management are failing shareholders miserably.

They will not release dividend policy or protect the shareprice or actively take action to achieve the stated aim of option conversion and the inflow of funds that could be spent on exploratory acreage / producing assets etc.

They seem to think that "presentations" work. Wrong market interaction and buying raise the share price. Their is huge amounts of money being generated. Why state last year that you want the options converted and do nothing.

The presentations are not working - Abn ambro and First NZ do not cover NZO and issue research - so they will not be telling clients to buy.

What does work is market action that generates a rising share price and positive sentiment.

Do not hide behind presentations any longer as a "demonstrable course of action" - do something that will work - buy the shares if you think they are seriously undervalued and worth over $1.50

Please put the shareholders money where the managements mouth is and do a buyback.

I would also ask all shareholders to email or phone nzo immediately and ask when a buyback will occur using $5 $10 of the $180? cashflow generated when "all funds are in place for our 3 major projects"

Do not let them hide anymore you own part of this company! (I have emailed & phoned & intend to at least once a month going forward)
First NZ are covering NZO and have prepared research via Credit Suisse. Jason Familton (Wellington Office of NZ) is the contact person. You can pick this up via the NZOG website - please refer to the Investors Section, then try Brokers/Research Reports. McDouall Stuart have also prepared new research. I am aware of two other brokers preparing new or updated research. All the research prepared thus far is at a heatlhy premium to the SP of today.

I am sure something will be said about dividends in the near future. The company will be aware that shareholders and the market wil be looking for direction on this very important point.

Have some faith in the new executive team. Contrary to the views of expressed by others on this site, they are with NZOG to do a job, and I have every conviction that they will come through for the shareholder and the company. My understanding is that they are incentivised and motivated to do so, and with reputations added to or negated by the company'ssuccess or failure,, there is plenty at stake for the entire team now employed by NZOG.

David Salisbury promised better communication. Regular updates and "presentations" are a part of that, and surely is demonstration that he is delivering. I am sure there is plety more to come, with the next couple of months expected to be significant in terms of the amount news flow and the content of this.

It is a time to be supportive, and showing confidence, even if the oil price was at $US90, rather than $US100.

[Nitaa]

Thanks Peter F,

The PR machine is in first gear and judging by those comments, expect to be in overdrive very shortly. Barring unforseen cirmcumstances nzo will prove incredibly cheap at these prices.

discl. Not buying any more as most of my money is invested heavily in another business

[digger]

First NZ are covering NZO and have prepared research via Credit Suisse. Jason Familton (Wellington Office of NZ) is the contact person. You can pick this up via the NZOG website - please refer to the Investors Section, then try Brokers/Research Reports. McDouall Stuart have also prepared new research. I am aware of two other brokers preparing new or updated research. All the research prepared thus far is at a heatlhy premium to the SP of today.

I am sure something will be said about dividends in the near future. The company will be aware that shareholders and the market wil be looking for direction on this very important point.

Have some faith in the new executive team. Contrary to the views of expressed by others on this site, they are with NZOG to do a job, and I have every conviction that they will come through for the shareholder and the company. My understanding is that they are incentivised and motivated to do so, and with reputations added to or negated by the company'ssuccess or failure,, there is plenty at stake for the entire team now employed by NZOG.

David Salisbury promised better communication. Regular updates and "presentations" are a part of that, and surely is demonstration that he is delivering. I am sure there is plety more to come, with the next couple of months expected to be significant in terms of the amount news flow and the content of this.

It is a time to be supportive, and showing confidence, even if the oil price was at $US90, rather than $US100.


Well said PF. Could not be more true and we should all be looking forward to the next few months. Can anyone state another company on the NZX that is likely to even come close to the growth that is in frount of NZO.[WELL not counting PRC]

[digger]

Something has just occured to me why the half is delayed till end march or April.
On the last presentation i commented about yesterday it said that production from TUI to 18 feb was 8.6 mmbbls and from that it is very reasonable to conclude from earlier reports that TUI is fireing away at at least 50000 a day. So on simple maths by 25 march TUI will have produced 25% of it's present recoverable oil of 41.6 million barrels.
Given by 25 march you have 25% of the supposed total recovered and you are certaintly in full knowledge of the current state of the field,a very accurate summary can then be made to conclude if the field is the size of 41.6 or is more likely some other figure.
In any event i am betting on a new field estimate about that time,or perhaps before to come out with the half year report.

[Unicorn]

Well said PF. Could not be more true and we should all be looking forward to the next few months. Can anyone state another company on the NZX that is likely to even come close to the growth that is in frount of NZO.[WELL not counting PRC]

PPP is a possibility! May not have Kupe, but it does have Maitland.

btw Digger, I sent you a private message the other day ... if you haven't come across it yet, click on the "Private messages" tag up the top right near where it says "Welcome Digger" and you should get to it in your Inbox.

[dsurf]

First NZ are covering NZO and have prepared research via Credit Suisse. Jason Familton (Wellington Office of NZ) is the contact person. You can pick this up via the NZOG website - please refer to the Investors Section, then try Brokers/Research Reports. McDouall Stuart have also prepared new research. I am aware of two other brokers preparing new or updated research. All the research prepared thus far is at a heatlhy premium to the SP of today.

I am sure something will be said about dividends in the near future. The company will be aware that shareholders and the market wil be looking for direction on this very important point.

Have some faith in the new executive team. Contrary to the views of expressed by others on this site, they are with NZOG to do a job, and I have every conviction that they will come through for the shareholder and the company. My understanding is that they are incentivised and motivated to do so, and with reputations added to or negated by the company'ssuccess or failure,, there is plenty at stake for the entire team now employed by NZOG.

David Salisbury promised better communication. Regular updates and "presentations" are a part of that, and surely is demonstration that he is delivering. I am sure there is plety more to come, with the next couple of months expected to be significant in terms of the amount news flow and the content of this.

It is a time to be supportive, and showing confidence, even if the oil price was at $US90, rather than $US100.

Do you work for NZO or contract to them?

What has that got to do with actively buying shares on market??

[peterfindlay]

No to the first question on both counts.

My response is to your post 2781. My response to the majority of your post, is merely an attempt to provide some balance.

[BigBob]

Did anyone else hear the little snippet on the 8am news this morning....:

Something like "with oil prices hitting record highs and petrol at the pump going up the Tui oilfield is cashing in...".... "about 10 million barrels produced so far"... "price benchmark over has been over US$100 per barrel for a while"... "NZO net about US$90 per barrell".... and then an interview with someone from NZO..... sorry if this is not reported correctly - I was on a bus when I heard it, and they make a lot of noise.... :o)

[sideline]

Did anyone else hear the little snippet on the 8am news this morning....:

Something like "with oil prices hitting record highs and petrol at the pump going up the Tui oilfield is cashing in...".... "about 10 million barrels produced so far"... "price benchmark over has been over US$100 per barrel for a while"... "NZO net about US$90 per barrell".... and then an interview with someone from NZO..... sorry if this is not reported correctly - I was on a bus when I heard it, and they make a lot of noise.... :o)

Yeah, heard it on the 7am news.

[COLIN]

No to the first question on both counts.

My response is to your post 2781. My response to the majority of your post, is merely an attempt to provide some balance.
And thank you Peter, sincerely. I was impressed with the soundness of your contribution. No histrionics but an objective and balanced statement. Please keep up your input to the forum.
And yes, I also heard the news clip this morning. Thought it might generate a bit more buying interest but I think it has been outweighed somewhat by the negative sentiment that came through on Wall Street overnight.

[Hoop]

Yes Colin, news of an economic slowdown + Pickens comment. This $100 / barrel resistence level on the oil chart may be a tough nut to crack. Oil presently back below $100 at $98.57. Was $101 a false break?:(

Quote from NZH today.......
Legendary Oil investor T. Boone Pickens said on Thursday he has a short position on oil and natural gas on expectations that prices will fall in the near term, and analysts said fundamentals may no longer support triple-digit oil.
"More and more people are of the view that crude at $100 is overpriced and simply far detached from market fundamentals," said Ritterbusch...

[Nitaa]

Yes Colin, news of an economic slowdown + Pickens comment. This $100 / barrel resistence level on the oil chart may be a tough nut to crack. Oil presently back below $100 at $98.57. Was $101 a false break?:(

Quote from NZH today.......
Legendary Oil investor T. Boone Pickens said on Thursday he has a short position on oil and natural gas on expectations that prices will fall in the near term, and analysts said fundamentals may no longer support triple-digit oil.
"More and more people are of the view that crude at $100 is overpriced and simply far detached from market fundamentals," said Ritterbusch...Oil prices fundamentally (i like that word) overall look strong but not completely. We havent had a decent correction yet which means the longer it goes without one the bigger the correction will be. I am picking a range of USD75 to USD160 this year. higher if the yanks do something stupid.

i think the $100 mark will soon be a non issue. There is no news that the world is collapsing because of high oil prices. Far more concern is on the us ecenonmy as a whole and the subprime market.

i remember when many of us predicted prices could go to $100 a few years ago many people laughed. Now it has almost be totally accepted by the richer nations as almost a non issue. that alone suggest there is plenty more rises to come.

one thing that is almost a certaintly. inflation is on the rise and likely to get a lot worse.

[Hoop]

Yes sure Nita, at best that news item quote I posted can only be taken as the present and short term future view.

At the moment some commentators are at a view that the oil price is oversold and obviously Picken is shorting on this possibilty that some sort of correction is close at hand.

What is going to happen in the longer period in the future is anyones guess...there is too many variables in play to accurately guess the mid /longer term outcome. As you say it only takes a silly action from a country / or a powerful group, and the price could dramatically alter.

[Nitaa]

Yes sure Nita, at best that news item quote I posted can only be taken as the present and short term future view.

At the moment some commentators are at a view that the oil price is oversold and obviously Picken is shorting on this possibilty that some sort of correction is close at hand.

What is going to happen in the longer period in the future is anyones guess...there is too many variables in play to accurately guess the mid /longer term outcome. As you say it only takes a silly action from a country / or a powerful group, and the price could dramatically alter.yes your right. what happens short term as well is anyones guess. The great news from nzo is they are capitalizing in record prices. although oil can go way higher, one has to be extremely satisfied about the outcome for nzo and especially tui.

[arjay]

...... one has to be extremely satisfied about the outcome for nzo and especially tui.

and with the NZO SP now back up to Nov 2004 levels, the good news might even trickle-down to the shareholder!

[tim23]

Colin - Wall Street has nothing to do with the share price! Its the chart that tells you where the share price is heading and of course the stop losses, 5%, blue eyed brigade (whoever they are?) behaviour etc etc

[duncan macgregor]

Colin - Wall Street has nothing to do with the share price! Its the chart that tells you where the share price is heading and of course the stop losses, 5%, blue eyed brigade (whoever they are?) behaviour etc etc
TIM, Wall st has everything to do with market sentiment which can and is moved in unexpected ways. [ Extreme example] APOLLO mining company on the asx in the sixties rose and dropped 5% every time an APOLLO rocket went up and down. The blue eyed brigade never noticed to busy working out the fundamentals to even think of it. Its herd behaviour overpriced to underpriced for no good reason. Learn to take your eyes of that rail track brain of yours and look over the fence to see what might incite the herd to move in the next direction. NZO were $1-30 three years ago the only reason they are not higher than that right now is market perception, not fundamentals. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

TIM, Wall st has everything to do with market sentiment which can and is moved in unexpected ways. [ Extreme example] APOLLO mining company on the asx in the sixties rose and dropped 5% every time an APOLLO rocket went up and down. The blue eyed brigade never noticed to busy working out the fundamentals to even think of it. Its herd behaviour overpriced to underpriced for no good reason. Learn to take your eyes of that rail track brain of yours and look over the fence to see what might incite the herd to move in the next direction. NZO were $1-30 three years ago the only reason they are not higher than that right now is market perception, not fundamentals. Macdunkcongrats md. i cant beleive i am saying this but your are right. well at least correct in the sense that nzo isnt priced on fundamentals its priced on market perception. well done. on that matter, fundamentals give investors an opprtunity to buy stocks at undervalued prices.

well done md.. you are starting to to make sense... just dont blow it by opening your mouth and removing any doubt.

[zacman]

I would have thought that the price of oil at $100 pb is a reflection of the falling value of the US$ as much as anything. Most currencies seem to be appreciating against US$ and so the oil increase is not so dramatic.

Likewise, the growing income for NOG must be tempered by the fact that the income is in US$ which is depreciating against NZ$.

zacman

[Balance]

Just saw a report from a major Australian broking house valuing AWE's 42.5% stake in Tui at A$826m. That makes NZO's stake in Tui worth NZ$279m or $1.05 per NZO share with PRC and Kupe thrown in for the other 13 cents.

Now that's the kind of coverage you need to get this puppy moving along. Alas, the company has turned too many people off over the years by its attitude.

[duncan macgregor]

Just saw a report from a major Australian broking house valuing AWE's 42.5% stake in Tui at A$826m. That makes NZO's stake in Tui worth NZ$279m or $1.05 per NZO share with PRC and Kupe thrown in for the other 13 cents.

Now that's the kind of coverage you need to get this puppy moving along. Alas, the company has turned too many people off over the years by its attitude. BALANCE, I see you have a red square under your name i wonder if you earned it by being critical of FISHER FUNDS. I used to have one of those for some reason but been given the green again. Maybe you upset the natives by being critical of NZO or said something that upset TR. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

Balance, cheers for that information. That should be enough for you to buy(?), as in the long run the wealth will be recognized in the shareprice, right?

Zacman, your right the oil price is inversely related to the USD, but it wasnt more than a decade ago that we were seeing $15 a barrel oil and the USD hasnt fallen 80% or so...

Oil price has definately more than offset the appreciating NZD/USD. Oil at $70 a barrel when NZD was 70 cents was $100NZD...its getting up near $100USD which is like almost 125ish NZD...so i think the POO increase with declining USD has been worth it...but your right, and i think some commentators are saying that it is due for a correction short term as fundamentally (supply etc) hasnt changed much, and blaming 100 dollar oil from declining USD has overshot...others thoughts?

But yeah, generally, im liking NZO stride atm. Imagine what the sp is going to do spudding of momoho, just hope the market doesnt poo itself around that time! Options are only low 30's cents out..i think options are do-able, but a risky bet for return.

Latest 'presentation' is pretty good too..and it gives direction. It will be good to see how they plan their next potential drilling campaign for 09.

Also, it will be sweet to see how the bidding goes for acerage of the taranaki permits...and whether they take a larger stake with some partners. Say 20% would be nice.

[Billy Boy]

I would have thought that the price of oil at $100 pb is a reflection of the falling value of the US$ as much as anything. Most currencies seem to be appreciating against US$ and so the oil increase is not so dramatic.

Likewise, the growing income for NOG must be tempered by the fact that the income is in US$ which is depreciating against NZ$.

zacman
I agree with zacman
Have heard/read somewhere (cant remember where) that OPEC have discussed the option of doing bizz in EURO's. Dont know the outcome, but I know Iran have been doing oil bizz in EURO's. Politicial maybe, but how much of a actual could it become ??
BB

[neopole]

at present, NZO is raking in the cash as we know, and no one expected tui pumping at max capacity during maximum price of oil, and no one knows how long the poo will remain at these levels..... what with the turmoils troubling the world. so maybe the chiefs at NZO are thinking the same thing, which might mean why they are tight lipped about whats planned for the revenue from tui. this tui well has turned into an absolute goldmine, way beyond the dreams of shareholders and directors. here we are calling for our cut, which is very reasonable IMHO, but i think the management arent really sure at this point in time what to do...... meaning...... they had plans and expectations in place years ago about what could be and hopefully will be, and these expectations have been superceded now.
so...... what to do with the extra windfall?
obviously there are alot of faithful shareholders who have sat on the sideline supporting this co for a loooong time and they want and deserve a reward for their monies and time invested. but maybe there is now an opertunity to do something on a grander scale which the directors never dreamed of until now.
if this is the case, then this could explain the lack of comunication about the future in hard facts and figures, because the co is exploring new avenues that they never dreamed of.
while this is happening, the shareholders are starting to put preasure on management for some news, any news, direction on "where are we going?"
in the meantime, share turnover volume has increased as has the shareprice, but in a slow but steady way. there is too much cash coming in at the moment to keep the sp down forever, but there is lack of news also which is holding back a faster rise in sp.
sooner or later, this co becomes a takeover target, or management discloses a thorough plan for the future, as the cash rolls in, the time for management to state its position and future draws closer.
something big will happen, and IMHO it will be this year.
a take over, or detailed explanation of how the cash will be spent.
then we the shareholders can stop hoping and start planning.

[COLIN]

I notice that a 5k trade was done bang on 5 p.m. at a cent down, to 117, after trading at 118 for most of the day. Makes me just a little suspicious. Is someone artificially depressing the price while they build up a significant stake? Someone else made some comments to this effect recently, too.

[bermuda]

I notice that a 5k trade was done bang on 5 p.m. at a cent down, to 117, after trading at 118 for most of the day. Makes me just a little suspicious. Is someone artificially depressing the price while they build up a significant stake? Someone else made some comments to this effect recently, too.

Colin, I think you are getting a little paranoic. lol

It continues to amaze me that this stock is not at $1.51

Aaahhh....Sentiment.

[shasta]

Colin, I think you are getting a little paranoic. lol

It continues to amaze me that this stock is not at $1.51

Aaahhh....Sentiment.

Mind you Colin has a point.

The markets closing time was brought forward 15 mins to have "market orders" only during the match up period.

This was brought in to stop the very manipulation which still occurs.

The ASX doesn't have the same end of day process as the NZX, & believe me it's worse on the ASX, & i don't mean the normal end of quarter window dressing.

I'd even like to see trades "during the match up period" to be disallowed if they are below VWAP.

A cent here or there doesn't seem like much, until it affects the charts!

[bermuda]

Mind you Colin has a point.

The markets closing time was brought forward 15 mins to have "market orders" only during the match up period.

This was brought in to stop the very manipulation which still occurs.

The ASX doesn't have the same end of day process as the NZX, & believe me it's worse on the ASX, & i don't mean the normal end of quarter window dressing.

I'd even like to see trades "during the match up period" to be disallowed if they are below VWAP.

A cent here or there doesn't seem like much, until it affects the charts!

As you say, a cent here or there doesnt 'matter' much.

[sideline]

I suppose everybody has seen and read the new report from McDuall Stuart dated
31 January 2008 on the NZOG website at http://www.nzog.net/news/2007/McDouall%20Stuart%20Research%20Note%20Feb08.pdf.

21 page document, here are a few points:


The company has already flagged its commitment to further exploration-led
growth. A commitment to a $20-25m drilling campaign in FY09 will
represent a four-fold increase to FY07 exploration spend and a neardoubling
of FY08 spend.

...............
lots of detail about tui production,kupe,prc:
........
Should deliverability
remain at close to 50,000 bbl/day for the remaining five months of FY08
and operator remain comfortable (in terms of reservoir management) with
this rate of production, FY08 production would exceed 15 mmbbls.
..............
We estimate that Tui will have achieved nominal payback by
March, just seven months into production.

........................................kupe:

The JV plans to drill Momoho following the
completion of Kupe development drilling.
.............................
If NZOG
incurred a 100% failure rate on any and all forward exploration, and also
saw no further upgrades to any of the Tui, Pike River or Kupe CFAs, DCF of
risked P50 cash flows still implies NAV of $1.45/share.
............................

[tim23]

I don't have the info but I'm sure the share price only reached $1.30 mid last year not 3 years ago as Dunacn states - in fact I'd be really annoyed if I was wrong!! Help!

[the machine]

Kupe KS6 development well should next week start final section of the batch drill production well.
Any thoughts if there will be a production test at this juncture before proceeding with final stages into KS7?

KS8 into the northern section has potential to increase reserves according to the McDouall Stuart Energy report.

M

[Nitaa]

I don't have the info but I'm sure the share price only reached $1.30 mid last year not 3 years ago as Dunacn states - in fact I'd be really annoyed if I was wrong!! Help!The shareprice did reach $1.30 about 3 years ago and the nzooc reached about 60 cps.

Duncan is correct and most likely will never to forget his experience of buying high and selling low. This occured during his time line theory which he broke his golden rule. A bit like a woman scourned hence his dislike for nzo management.

in saying that, one needs to put eveything into perspective. effectively the sp now is what it was 3 years ago. that is if you want to look at the worse case scenario. if you want to look at the glass as half full then you will know that the sp hit a low of 25 or 26 cps only 5 years ago. so for the ones that brought at that point and still hold have made an astonishing 400% gain over 5 years. average 80% gain each year. yet we still hear how nzo is not doing well. watch out when they do.

actually, last year the sp was cranking into overdrive hen got wammied by the correction. however, while many other stocks are in a little meltown mode, nzo is going gangbusters. ods are now a 40% chance of being in th money. if that is the case thn the oppies are a steal at current prices. I would be intrested on where other people saw the chances of options converting. Unicorn, any opinion?

[tim23]

Ouch!!


PS Are you sure?

[duncan macgregor]

Ouch!!


PS Are you sure? TIM, The share price was exactly $1-25 three years ago to date. Makes you wonder what you are raving on about when the market was in a bull run for the last two and a half years. Hope that you still participate in pass the parcel. Only having you on mate goodluck with the options. Macdunk

[zigzag]

TIM, The share price was exactly $1-25 three years ago to date. Makes you wonder what you are raving on about when the market was in a bull run for the last two and a half years. Hope that you still participate in pass the parcel. Only having you on mate goodluck with the options. Macdunk

Macdunk is right. Three years ago, a lot of punters got overexcited, and pushed the shareprice up too far, too fast. At $1.30 or so it was looking very speculative. That was the time to sell down. It has taken the last 3 yrs for the reality to catch up to the hype. In fact the pendulum has swung too far the other way to a point where NZO is now undervalued.

[Bixbite]

Some benefits / profits which NZOG gave to its shareholders were “invisible”. Macdunk’s case could be a good example: - Because he held NZO two years ago, he consequently had NZOOD. He sold his NZOOD then bought PPP.ax , he then sold his PPP with more than double the money and bought into AGM and ………....... Now he has more than triple of the money in A$. These profits are from NZOOD, “indirectly and invisibly” from NZO.

Cheers

[tim23]

So $1.25 3 years ago is actually $1.30? so I was correct after all??

[Lion]

Tim, the McDouall Stuart report, page 18, says the maximum share price in the last 3 years was $1.32.

[Nitaa]

actually about 3 years ago there was a pump and dump. 1m oc's went through then the price came a tumbling down. some know who the seller was........moving along

[rotweiller]

Having bought NOG @ .39 in 1999, I then sold a parcel 3 years ago @ $1.30 to pay for a private train trip through Eastern Europe - my trip of a lifetime and still holding NOG.
Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

So $1.25 3 years ago is actually $1.30? so I was correct after all?? NO TIM you still dont get it do you?. If i give you the sp at exactly three years ago next month it will be less than $1-25 the sp trended down. It was over $1--30 before that YA MUG. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

I cannot speak for the last 3-4 years, ive been here for a year and abit...
NZO has been a great trading stock and a poor investing stock over those years...
In the year since ive been here, NZO has performed as a company... It's SP hasnot performed... Im coming back to trade Momoho...
Its time for NZO to do a share buy back, just like what PPP is proposing...
:cool:
.^sc

[manxman]

Its time for NZO to do a share buy back, just like what PPP is proposing...
:cool:
.^sc

Shouldn't PPP have told the NZX?
As of next month you can get years in durance vile for starting a rumour like that.
Good thought though - they need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to give the ODs a run.

Mx

[Crypto Crude]

manxman,
Let me just cover my back here...
'theres a rumor of Pan doing a share buy back'...
PPP is valued at 30CPS NPV, the company has no direction and money growing off trees... On face value it would seem appropriate to do a share buy back... I cannot confirm one is coming though...:)
....
A share buy back from NZO, is another ball game...
and im much less certain of one coming for NZ oil especially while we have Pike rolling along and market uncertainty...
:cool:
.^sc

[manxman]

manxman,
Let me just cover my back here...
'theres a rumor of Pan doing a share buy back'...
PPP is valued at 30CPS NPV, the company has no direction and money growing off trees... On face value it would seem appropriate to do a share buy back... I cannot confirm one is coming though...:)

.^sc

Damn - you had me hoping there. Mx

[Bixbite]

....
A share buy back from NZO, is another ball game...

.^sc


Shrewdy,

We know that you are doing a degree of Business. Can you tell us how NZOG set a “fair price” for a share buy back as long as NZOOD still there?

Cheers

[Xerof]

Unless my understanding of reasonably plain english is incorrect, NZO will not even be considering a share buy-back - they are an 'explorer/producer' and will look to leverage off their current production success with TUI, future success with PRC and Kupe, to expand their turf.

Thats what exploration coys do....

To do a share buy-back is an admission of defeat. i.e lets give back the money as we don't think we can do much with it. Now...for PPP, that might well be true :D:D

[zigzag]

Shrewd Crude - " there's a rumour of Pan doing a share buy back." I'd love to know where you heard that, or are you just spreading a bit of mischief ?

[airedale]

Shrewdie......mischievous??.......Never!!:):):)
He is as pure as the driven snow, that lad....;););)

[arjay]

Ouch!!


PS Are you sure?

I recall the SP reaching $1.18 in Nov 2004, then declining somewhat before peaking at about $1.35 around Mar 2005. I remember the $1.18 part well because Gregorious (whatever happened to him) timed it perfectly and sold out.

[shasta]

I recall the SP reaching $1.18 in Nov 2004, then declining somewhat before peaking at about $1.35 around Mar 2005. I remember the $1.18 part well because Gregorious (whatever happened to him) timed it perfectly and sold out.

Arjay

Remember at the time all the anxiousness that NOG wouldn't get the 60c options (NOGOC's) over the line?

I remember the spike over $1.30 well, i also remember it sliding back to 90c after the option money came in (some $42m from memory)

Xerof

Whilst a share buyback for a new producer seems a tad strange, NZO have publicly stated getting the options exercised is a priority.

Why not use "current cashflow" in this manner if it gets a high % of the options exercised.

It is alot of $$$$ we are talking about here!

[the machine]

nzo will do zip re dividend and/or share buyback until both cutout all accrued losses and until after options.

meanwhile they keep racking in the $ - lots of them.

M

[Xerof]

Shasta, different set of circumstances last time - at that point they were still in development stage and really wanted/needed the cash - this time (unless they have very big ambitions) they need cash like a hole in the head.

Time will tell I guess.

If you have seen the chart published projecting forward oil and gas production levels, once TUI begins to taper, Kupe roars to the rescue.

This baby is a cash till - I just hope it doesn't belong to Arkwright :)

The 'problem' with the options conversion is the large dilutionary impact, so realistically the SP probably needs to be well north of $2.00 to firstly really incentivise oppie holders to cough up $1.50 and hold, and secondly, to keep the post conversion price above $1.50, otherwise we will have a whole new set of pissed off shareholders

[dsurf]

I notice that a 5k trade was done bang on 5 p.m. at a cent down, to 117, after trading at 118 for most of the day. Makes me just a little suspicious. Is someone artificially depressing the price while they build up a significant stake? Someone else made some comments to this effect recently, too.

Yes - perfectly legally - watch the depth and you will see good operating. If NZO put a little money into the market eg 0.5% of free cash flow from this financial year, then they could easily stop this. They are not concerned about the technical aspects of the market and do not have a clue about these things or thay would have initiated a buyback last year.

[dsurf]

Shrewdy,

We know that you are doing a degree of Business. Can you tell us how NZOG set a “fair price” for a share buy back as long as NZOOD still there?

Cheers

A buyback is normally "on market" at whatever is on the sell side

A "capital return" is a pro rata purchase from all shareholders.

An on market buy back would remove sell orders and hence drive the SP upwards. Both the heads & oc's would move upwards, ie both benefit.

Also a buyback does not have to involve huge amounts of money, for example 10m would see the options in the money & then 10 times the money returned to the company. Very simple formula.

[Bixbite]

I forgot this way – buy back on the market to “stimulate” the share prices. Thanks dsurf.

Cheers

[tim23]

Xerof - $1.55 plus should encourage people to take up there options is the heads were $2 then the options would be worth 50c!

[Xerof]

Yeah, well this is all hypothetical - the point is the dilutionary impact is horrendous if they all get converted, so my pick is the price stays under the strike until expiry

[Bixbite]

I can now simply predict the cash amount of the “Receipts from product sales and related debtors” for the 3rd quarterly cash flows – 08.

Here is the information; readers can do their own calculations.

· Payment 30 days, March shipments can be ignored.
· To (25 February 2008): 8.8 million barrels shipped.
· To (31 December 2007): 5.8 million barrels shipped.
· (From Dec-07 quarterly activity report): “Payments outstanding on December shipments take NZOG's total net revenue* from five months production to approximately $84.2million.” – cash received $62.1million (Cash receivable is NZ$22.1million)

Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

Two ways to look at this. NZO do a buy back at market, and cancel the shares. The result would be share price goes up, options get converted the company has an equal of number of shares no dilutionary effect at all with happy holders. The price would hover around convertion level at that point. The other way is do nothing say nothing piss the shareholders off, who would then have nothing to discuss other than peak oil, or how much its worth in a dropping USD.
My opinion is, why look after the share holders now by doing something nice when you are up to your armpits swilling in the trough. My pick is the sounds of silence playing a tune at PASS THE PARCEL. Thats the gamble you guys are taking hope i am wrong and the company does the right thing very shortly. Macdunk

[manxman]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) is pleased to advise that the company's
interim financial statements are now expected to be available on Wednesday 27
February 2008.

Can just see it.

The New Zealand Harald today reported that New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd had suffered a massive cost overun in Head Office Expenses. Chief Executive David Salisbury had apparently been forced to buy a bigger wheelbarrow to move the cashflow to the bank.

The Harald pointed out that this was yet another of an ongoing series of cost overruns.

Sgt Chrislee of the SFO warned NZO that any release of information would be taken down, twisted, and used in evidence against them. For this company "All news is bad news" he said.

NZO closed 3 cents down when some boy scout needing a new woggle sold five shares immediately before the close, thus dropping the value of the company by $10 million on the basis of a fifty dollar trade.

[Chippie]

One of the best post I have read on this site for years :)

[Toddy]

As a shareholder I am absolutely wild that NZO management have indicated that a report will be released within two days. I've been use to waiting two weeks and them some over the years.

How can I organise myself in just two days. How can we play McDunks parcel game if we only have two days to play. I'm going to complain to the NZ Herald. Where were the NZ Herald sources close to NZO when you really needed them.


Uggh.......

[COLIN]

Yes - perfectly legally - watch the depth and you will see good operating. If NZO put a little money into the market eg 0.5% of free cash flow from this financial year, then they could easily stop this. They are not concerned about the technical aspects of the market and do not have a clue about these things or thay would have initiated a buyback last year.
Happened again today - 4.41 p.m.
On a 100k portfolio, 1 cent equals $1,000. Not that I revalue my portfolio daily, and I'm not really too concerned about daily movements - its the trend that counts.

[Sumnerned]

Dsurf, Colin et al

Yes, these share price movements are quite amusing. About a week ago (I don't remember the exact day), the price was definitely on the up. Sellers at 118c virtually taken out, and suddenly a small sale or two at 117. Wind taken out of the market's sails.

And that's why I tend to disagree with you Colin. Holders and traders can only put up with so much of this before going on to greener pastures.

While NZO can't really be blamed for this, Macdunk's pithy analysis of their options is on the mark.

[Nitaa]

Nita is not expected to pull the trigger on the oppies this week. However, baring a another quick dumping on wall st it now seems a small risk for bigger reward as long as you can fund the conversion. if not then best not to touch then.

4 months to go. some think its not much time. i disagree and although i appreciate the time value is speeding up the closer we get to june 30th, its far from over.

pr machine just moved from 1st to 2nd gear so hold on to your hats all.

[tim23]

I sold my PPP options too soon last year because I saw the clock ticking fast trouble is the buyers saw it ticking slower than me!

[QOH]

on what NZO's shareprice will be at the close tomorrow. If it's not at least $1.20, think I'll give up on them.

[digger]

on what NZO's shareprice will be at the close tomorrow. If it's not at least $1.20, think I'll give up on them.

What sort of logic is this? Tomorrow is nothing special even with the 1/2 report.An investment in NZO is best considered in full,so look at holding until all three projects are in full swing. TUI has been a hugh success but so will PIKE and the biggest of the lot will be KUPE. The best thing about tomorrow is that it is one more day closer to full production.
It would be far better to estimate the SP on 30 june 2010. OK i will about between 4 and 5 dollars.

[Nitaa]

LAST PRICE A$107. BE INTERESTING LAST HOUR.:cool:The $1.07 price is largely irrelevant. 9,000 shares traded to jump from $1.02 to $1.07 can make that figure misleading. Overseas trade after that was around the $1.03 mark which is a clearer reflection.

In saying all that, once senses a bit more anticipation and buzz howvering around the likes of PPP and NZO. Contrary to 3 years ago where is was disapointment after disapointment with news. Now its the reverse where NZO are only putting mostly good news (bar the odd one). Pike still worries me but i also sense that any real bad news with Pike will only occur after June 30th as production has been put back.

I missed out on the options below the 5 cps but hey you cannot win them all.

[Sumnerned]

Hi Queenie

I wasn't going to make this post til thursday night, but your frustration has got me going! On Fri Jan 25 I made the guess/wish on this thread, that NZO would increase by 1c per day to mid-year. Well a few negative things have happened to markets since then, and NZO is still the victim of price-manipulators, but in 17 days trading NZO has gone from 107 to 119. OK by me. I have bought more OD's! The trend-line gives a mid-year price of around 175, valuing the OD's at 25c, less risk and interest. Nita seems to be thinking along similar lines, though she's probably a bit more experienced and wary than me, if you get my drift.

And as Malcolm points out the ASX price has been consistently higher than NZX in recent days, they just know more.

Digger's onto it, tho a few 'probably's' might be in order. The best thing about tomorrow tho, is that you're a millionaire whatever happens on the markets.

[tim23]

I like your optimism Digger!!

[zorba]

[QUOTE=Sumnerned;187018]Hi Queenie

I wasn't going to make this post ........... Nita seems to be thinking along similar lines, though she's probably a bit more experienced ....... than me ......

[QUOTE]

Summation,

I totally agree with you, and by her own admission, Nita has a (w)hole lot more experience than any of us ...... check out her earlier postings.

Nita is definitely on to it ...... and knows how to "drive" a long shot and no doubt hopes to hole-out, as we all do, with a 10-bagger.

[the machine]

from the nzo website and sends another mixed message re likely production by june 30



TUI AREA OIL PROJECT (PMP 38158: NZOG 12.5%)Document Actions The Tui Area Oil Project is located in PMP38158 in the offshore Taranaki Basin, New Zealand, approximately 50km off the coast and in water depth of approximately 120m. It is the country’s first stand-alone offshore oil development.
Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
To 25 February 2008: Approx 8.9 million barrels produced, 8.8 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 1.12 million barrels.


Production since 01 January 2008 has averaged approx 45,000 barrels a day. The 'water cut' - the amount of water being recovered with the oil - has been significantly less than predicted, allowing this high daily production rate to continue. However, the water cut is steadily increasing and production rates are forecast to decline in coming months. NZOG is currently forecasting total production for the 2007/08 financial year to exceed 12 million barrels of oil - NZOG's share approx 1.5 mmbbls.


M

[Nitaa]

from the nzo website and sends another mixed message re likely production by june 30



TUI AREA OIL PROJECT (PMP 38158: NZOG 12.5%)Document Actions The Tui Area Oil Project is located in PMP38158 in the offshore Taranaki Basin, New Zealand, approximately 50km off the coast and in water depth of approximately 120m. It is the country’s first stand-alone offshore oil development.
Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
To 25 February 2008: Approx 8.9 million barrels produced, 8.8 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's share of production to date: Approx 1.12 million barrels.


Production since 01 January 2008 has averaged approx 45,000 barrels a day. The 'water cut' - the amount of water being recovered with the oil - has been significantly less than predicted, allowing this high daily production rate to continue. However, the water cut is steadily increasing and production rates are forecast to decline in coming months. NZOG is currently forecasting total production for the 2007/08 financial year to exceed 12 million barrels of oil - NZOG's share approx 1.5 mmbbls.


MGood news and still rather conservative imo. My guess is 13.5m barrels of oil for 2007/08 financial year. NZO share of 1.7mbo produced baring a mini disaster. The conservative news will only help the sp when the JV realise that 13 - 14 mbo will be produced up to June 30th.

[digger]

Did anyone pick up the comment about the KUPE gas field on TV3 this morning?? As i am quite deaf was trying to pick it up just listening to TV while trying to put on headset at the same time. By the time i got everything adjusted the news had gone on to something else. Think it was about extra gas needing to be captured.

[zorba]

.
Earlier today oil kicked above US$101 / barrel !!!

Currently sitting about US$100.90 .........

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/48

GO Tui !!!! .......... GO NZOG !!!!
.

[Sumnerned]

Hi Digger

Kupe has been mentioned a lot in articles about Waikato coal seam gas, such as this one

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4416526a10.html

[Hoop]

Did anyone pick up the comment about the KUPE gas field on TV3 this morning?? As i am quite deaf was trying to pick it up just listening to TV while trying to put on headset at the same time. By the time i got everything adjusted the news had gone on to something else. Think it was about extra gas needing to be captured.

Digger it may be this article (video) on TV3 Sunrise (http://www.tv3.co.nz/Video/SignificantgasfindinWaikato/tabid/311/articleID/47442/cat/52/Default.aspx#video). It is about the gas finds in the Waikato coal seams. They compare it to be on the scale of Kupe.

***The streaming Video from TV3 site is frustratingly slow even with fast broadband.