NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[AMR]

A breakout above $1.18 yesterday.
http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/4174/nzonz8.gif

[the machine]

nzo look like having a good day - up 3 c so far

financials out tomorrow for half year

M

[KJ]

Supposed to be today I think.

[QOH]

nzo look like having a good day - up 3 c so far

financials out tomorrow for half year

M

I thought they were due out today?

[Mick100]

don't panic macclunk
I'v put some OD's aside to sell to you in May:D

[arjay]

A 5c per share divie - excellent. Don't care what you 're-invest the lot' types say, I reckon a steady divie like this will see the oppies converted.

[trackers]

Insider's did well on this one.... Divvy 5c

[peterb]

Funny stat from the financials: increase in revenue of 103,700%

[dsurf]

momoho to be drilled in May / June - bring it on

[Wilkins_Micawber]

A 5c per share divie - excellent. Don't care what you 're-invest the lot' types say, I reckon a steady divie like this will see the oppies converted.

5cps from the 6 months net surplus - if the surplus for the next full financial year is approx double the last 6 months that would make next years divvie 10cps (assuming a similar % payout) :)

[Toddy]

What is Snipers take on the reported result.

[bermuda]

To all the supporters of NZO I say congratulations to you all for picking a little NZ company that has grown to become a giant over the last 25 years.

Well done NZO.

It's hard to argue with blistering financials. And a lot more to come.

[arjay]

What is Snipers take on the reported result.

probably something to the effect that we will get nothing because we no longer have 5c coins in circulation.

[bermuda]

momoho to be drilled in May / June - bring it on

Momoho is the reason they made the pipeline 3 times the size required.

Yes, Bring it on!

[dsurf]

Financials that might wake a few people up!

non diluted EPS = 31.6 cents from (41.4 x 2 ) / 262
diluted EPS (controversial NON EMPTY PARCEL theory) = 20.6 cents from (41.4 X 2) / 401

non diluted p/e at $1.27 = 4 from (127 / 31.6)
diluted p/e (controversial NON EMPTY PARCEL theory) = 6.1 127 / 20.6

cash yield = 3.9%
gross yield = 5.9%

If we were to assume a diluted, discount to market p/e of:

9 then SP should be $1.85

that would be nice!!

[sideline]

Listened to radionz national radio reporting (around 12:20) -

- they mentioned the huge increase in NZO's revenue but
- quickly added some snipped about writedowns at PRC (which they emphasized NZO had a big stake in) AND
- made absolutly NO mention of the dividend!!!!

What is their interest in this biased reporting???

[AMR]

What writedowns? Don't they mean rights issues? Really, it must be the anti-fossil fuel attitude.

What a wonderful result today!

[QOH]

The midday TV1 news didn't even mention it, even the woman at sharebrokers they crossed to, didn't say a word.

[dsurf]

Listened to radionz national radio reporting (around 12:20) -

- they mentioned the huge increase in NZO's revenue but
- quickly added some snipped about writedowns at PRC (which they emphasized NZO had a big stake in) AND
- made absolutly NO mention of the dividend!!!!

What is their interest in this biased reporting???

Phone them up and put them straight!

[Sumnerned]

The writedowns referred to the monies spent on the abandoned sea transport system. RNZ had Ward on air saying it.

That said, the level of business reporting by RNZ is tragic. You'd have to be damn clever to read the ann and miss the 5c div!

Go NZO!

[sideline]

What writedowns? Don't they mean rights issues? Really, it must be the anti-fossil fuel attitude.

What a wonderful result today!

The writedowns have been previously flagged and relate to the change in the transport route - some moneys
already spent on or committed on the old sea-route. Approximately 1.7m.

RNZ obviously kept that info at hand (or dug it up again) in case NZO share price rises.

Some reporters want to quickly buy some shares at the old price???

[neopole]

this now looks like a company that will attract the mums and dads investor back and hopefully new investors as well.
a 5c divi is a fantastic reward and hopefully the first of many, and still leaves monies for company growth.
this was the day i was waiting for.... seeing a spec company turn into a mainstream divi paying company that is still at the beginning of its expansion.
this has to be the number 1 company on the NZX for growth and reward potential today.

[Sehnsucht888]

NZ Herald at least is mentioning the dividend..

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10494920

Earnings from the Tui oilfield have lifted New Zealand Oil and Gas' (NZOG) half year net profit to $41.4 million from $500,000 a year earlier.

Revenue for the six months to the end of December was $95.5 million from $92,000 in the previous corresponding period.

A fully imputed dividend for the 2007/08 financial year of 5 cents per share will be paid, recognising an outstanding period and provides shareholders with an immediate share of that success, NZOG said today.

---
Hopefully in the news tonight and tomorrow to get some more interest..

[Billy Boy]

The midday TV1 news didn't even mention it, even the woman at sharebrokers they crossed to, didn't say a word.
I used to go off at reporters until I found it was not them.
It's the bloody EDITORS. They change reporters writings and they dont
care if all is missleading after that. Sell the story, that's all that matters.
An editors motto :- Never let facts or truth's get in the way of a good
story.
I remember when NZTV1 told the nation Quote " NZOG, all Australian coy
Prospecting of the Etc.....
I along with others E-mailed TV1 and pointed out the NOG was a NZ Coy.
Reply " You are wrong sir, we at TVnz are very proud of our research team. I may assure you, our news items are always checked and
rechecked for accuracy etc etc.
Yea right !!!
BB

[Lion]

No comment needed really, eh Ned?!

[remy]

nice little surprise when i went online , up 6c woop woop keep on going up nzo

[shasta]

nice little surprise when i went online , up 6c woop woop keep on going up nzo

Ok time for those who like myself sold out a tad early, to fess up!

Nice ann out today, & wishing i'd held now.

Well done NZO.

Now to get Pike up & running & i'll be back in :cool:

[Hoop]

Ok time for those who like myself sold out a tad early, to fess up!

Nice ann out today, & wishing i'd held now.

Well done NZO.

Now to get Pike up & running & i'll be back in :cool:

Shasta... you are not alone ..I sold down a major proportion of my holdings over the last couple of months for a reasonable profit..my last sale being 19th feb for 116c.

Congratuations to all who stuck with NZO thru thick & thin.

[Balance]

Lovely ....simply beautiful! I love it!

[shasta]

Lovely ....simply beautiful! I love it!

C'mon Balance even you should be applauding NZO for such a great result..

Reserve upgrades, higher POO, new management, increased exploration plans for 2009, a dividend to be paid, active drill program what else do you want?

Even your favourite WPL has disappointed with there results!

[friedegg]

eagerly waiting for my $8600 divi cheque(i hope it doesnt take two weeks to clear),thought most guys reckoned paying a divi wasnt on?

[airedale]

Nita, is it time to pull the trigger for the oppies. They went backwards today after the news. A good oppy opportunity perhaps....;)

[QOH]

Have to say I'm pleased they are giving us shareholders a reward at last. I wasn't expecting a dividend.

[skinny]

A very positive release & one which I think will keep the share price rising going forward.

With today's action I'm now back to even in my year-to-date returns :-)

[manxman]

eagerly waiting for my $8600 divi cheque(i hope it doesnt take two weeks to clear),thought most guys reckoned paying a divi wasnt on?

Must admit I expected a divi to be have a record date post 30 June to chase the ODs. Management are saying "we are on a roll. Join in now or weep." If the OD holders want to convert, then that's their business. This company is coining it, and you are welcome to join in but we don't have to buy your money.

Paying a fully imputed divi means that the profits are so obscene that all the tax losses have been wiped out in a twinkling. Div is three times + covered by current earnings. Div will be maintained/tweaked upwards indefinitely. What - me worry?
Mx

[Awamoa]

It is nice to be getting a dividend from NOG but I cant understand why a company that is hoping to raise funds via options is paying out money with one hand and wanting to receive money with the other?

[Tok3n]

So this dividend is their plan to get the SP to 1.50 for the options to be close to the money?

[Corporate]

I don't see why they are paying a dividend, why not repurchase some shares. I guess it's hard to please everyone.

[Onthemoney]

Are you sure it is fully imputed. They must have paid a lot of prov tax to build credits last payment....

[777]

Are you sure it is fully imputed. They must have paid a lot of prov tax to build credits last payment....



Dividend
The Board of NZOG has resolved to pay a fully imputed dividend for the 2007/08
financial year of 5.0c per ordinary share.

[tim23]

I'm pretty pleased today, nice cheque arriving soon but tell me where is Duncan to spoil the party? Maybe he is waiting for the chart to tell him when to reply!

[sideline]

I'm pretty pleased today, nice cheque arriving soon but tell me where is Duncan to spoil the party? Maybe he is waiting for the chart to tell him when to reply!

Duncan is carefully inspecting the parcel.

[tim23]

Of course with the blue eyed brigade!

[arjay]

I don't see why they are paying a dividend, why not repurchase some shares. I guess it's hard to please everyone.

Well, I guess Mr Market has shown thus-far that he is not going to fully value NZO stock, so if the Co. bought back shares Mr Market might not automatically upgrade the SP pro-rata. However, if NZO starts to regularly pay a ~$10c per annum (or higher) dividend, that can be can be calculated at a certain tangible return-rate by mum and dad investors who might then invest in NZO at what ever SP gives them a better return than putting their funds in the bank. Sure, it's more risky, but hey look at the mums and dads who got burned chasing an extra 1% through the finance companies. Seems like a reasonable strategy to me for building the SP.

[tim23]

Fair enough but I suggest there are already plenty so called mum & dads in the stock...

[digger]

Was not expecting a dividend this early in the production piece. For it to be fully imputed must mean that the company has used up all tax losses and has paid or will be paying the tax on the monies passed on to the shareholders. Again a very pleasant suprise and sooner than i thought.
Arjay has been pushing for a dividend for some time now to cement in a constant upward SP rise. Investers just like to get something back.
My monies will arrive just in time. My wife and i are building a new home overlooking about 2/3 of the parched waikato. We are going all hippy and will not be on the national grid. Power will be from solar ,wind and back up generator.Will post more on this later as would go too far off NZO by discussing it now. Anyways that dividend will go some way to pay off a few hands that are stuck out. Dispite this windfall i will continue to go around clum faced when all the builders and associates are around as if they know you have just received a bit of money,somehow the money is rightfully theirs.
The best part of this div is that it looks like it will be ongoing and for years into the future.
Regretably in NZo recent history i have only been able to talk two investers into NOG. Both sold out in the last three months being sick of hearing about hanging on until all three projects are producing.I had not expected one project to be good enought to support the other two as well as pass on a dividend. Just shows how enormously successful TUI is.
Well done to all the long term holders and NZO management.

[tim23]

And Kupe could be bigger than Tui!

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan is carefully inspecting the parcel. I would hate to spoil the party guys you deserve better than you have been getting from this company for a very long time. The shares went up 5c on the announcement of a 5c fully imputed dividend. Whoopee doo they drop 5c when its paid. It would have made more sense to have a buy back on market with a share cancelation. That way the sp would have risen higher faster. The options will be unlikely to be excercised, and if they are will hold the sp at that level with the dilution effect. Fingers crossed for you will be away for some time but will be back in time to see who is left holding the parcel. I suppose the brain dead will love this dividend, but to me coming from a prospecting company at this stage in the play its a stupid move. When i get back i hope you can tell me how wrong i got it, but until then good luck guys keep that stop loss in play. Macdunk

[blockhead]

Blocky is very happy with todays direction NOG is taking, maybe Mrs Blocky will ease up on the "you should have sold when ...."

I grabbed a few more options on the strength of it all today,

[sideline]

Are you sure it is fully imputed. They must have paid a lot of prov tax to build credits last payment....

Oil explorers must pay a royalty to government (which counts as a tax).
This can not be offset against previously accrued losses. Those losses can however
be used up slowly to avoid paying the full company tax rate.

The regime is as follows:
1. an ad valorem royalty (AVR), which applies at a rate of 5% of gross revenue from the sale of petroleum; or
2. an accounting profit royalty (APR), which applies at a rate of 20% of net revenues from the sale of petroleum, after deducting production expenses incurred under the same, or a related, permit.

Permit holders are required to pay the higher of the two royalties in any year (but not both)

Since the costs of producing the oil are so low (<$10/barrel) I assume the second regime operates here
and NZO pays 20% tax on the net oil revenue. That's where our imputation credits come from.

Previous years losses and unrelated permit expenses and writeoffs can then be used to offset
the additional tax a company would have to pay on its net profit (33% minus the royalties already
paid). It will take a few years to use the accrued losses up, I suppose.

[digger]

I would hate to spoil the party guys you deserve better than you have been getting from this company for a very long time. The shares went up 5c on the announcement of a 5c fully imputed dividend. Whoopee doo they drop 5c when its paid. It would have made more sense to have a buy back on market with a share cancelation. That way the sp would have risen higher faster. The options will be unlikely to be excercised, and if they are will hold the sp at that level with the dilution effect. Fingers crossed for you will be away for some time but will be back in time to see who is left holding the parcel. I suppose the brain dead will love this dividend, but to me coming from a prospecting company at this stage in the play its a stupid move. When i get back i hope you can tell me how wrong i got it, but until then good luck guys keep that stop loss in play. Macdunk

So you were the bug-ger who talked my mates into putting in a stop loss at 110 and got taken out. I will inform them of this fact and to have every confidence DM will gladly make up the difference.

[tim23]

Clever Duncan and if a share goes ex 7c a share it drops by 7c when it goes ex and so on so NOGs 5c will be no different but thanks for your enlightened views I figured you would have to put some pathetic spin on this and you took the bait.

[bermuda]

So you were the bug-ger who talked my mates into putting in a stop loss at 110 and got taken out. I will inform them of this fact and to have every confidence DM will gladly make up the difference.

Digger,
You have studied this Company and invested wisely. And followed it through thick and thin...as have I.

Congratulations. And as you know there is a lot more to come.Enjoy the evening and the future.

You deserve it.

[zorba]

.
Digger,

Great post ...... its excellent that the divie is fully imputated .....

and Sideline thanks for the info re royalty tax and the imputation process.

In the meantime, wot now of that decrepid sporranaceous whiskey swigger, Great Scott the same old McKlunkaceous tamporal extrusions ..... wot a load of miserable old adominal emmanations.

McKlunk, isnt it time ya got outa da dunny and join da party ????

Dsurf,

Thx for the P/E ratio calculations, good to see you supporting the company after your recent negative post (#2781) which was rightly challenged by Peter Findlay.

Now godspeed the NZOG ship and may the winds breeze us all into the land of milk and honey !!!!
.

[tim23]

Re Dunac Zorba - read above the pathetic dividend comment.

[Balance]

Share price is back to around where it was 3 years ago!

Beautiful.

[shasta]

Share price is back to around where it was 3 years ago!

Beautiful.

Don't forget the oppies :rolleyes:

[Mingeathinaikos]

It is nice to be getting a dividend from NOG but I cant understand why a company that is hoping to raise funds via options is paying out money with one hand and wanting to receive money with the other?

I agree Awamoa.
I think NZO are now in a position to not really care whether the options are exercised or not, and paying a dividend confirms that.

Obviously, management would like the share price to be as high as possible come 30th June, and if that results in conversion then so be it... but I can't see any gain to the company in the wider scheme if they are exercised.

Please enlighten me to why NZO would need the monies....

I believe the price on the close of play 30th June will be $1.50 on the dot.

[dsurf]

Zorba - RE: recent negative post (#2781) which was rightly challenged by Peter Findlay.

I think you and PF - missed the point entirely on that post - I have wanted NZO to disclose at least the same level of information that is expected fron NZX50 companies. This includes dividend policy. I have been an active canvasser of this. I have written, phoned & emailed the company & raised the issue on this forum stressing the importance of a dividend policy to investors. I am exceptionally pleased that the communications are coming & I have a much better confidence in management / executive communications. this will close the discount I see in the SP versus "value". I make no apology for being forthright & probably peeing a few people off. I am proud that possibly in some minute way my actions possibly contributed to the policy release.

What have you done??????

[Financially dependant]

Getting good press coverage this morning;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business.html?source=nav

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10495000

[bermuda]

Zorba - RE: recent negative post (#2781) which was rightly challenged by Peter Findlay.

I think you and PF - missed the point entirely on that post - I have wanted NZO to disclose at least the same level of information that is expected fron NZX50 companies. This includes dividend policy. I have been an active canvasser of this. I have written, phoned & emailed the company & raised the issue on this forum stressing the importance of a dividend policy to investors. I am exceptionally pleased that the communications are coming & I have a much better confidence in management / executive communications. this will close the discount I see in the SP versus "value". I make no apology for being forthright & probably peeing a few people off. I am proud that possibly in some minute way my actions possibly contributed to the policy release.

What have you done??????

dsurf,
Well done on your communications and drive for a dividend. This dividend was flagged at a Broker meeting I went to late last year. NZO have a lot more to offer and I await with interest the new coking coal price and the Momoho drill.

ps. Dont worry about Zorba's commitment. He has done more than his fair share in promoting this company and I look forward to joining him and 'The Coaster' at the forthcoming NZ Petroleum conference in Auckland March 10-13.

[Crypto Crude]

I just want to give it up to mackdunk
He outsmarted the lot of us, including myself...
....
...
It doesnot matter where the sp goes, MD will always win this battle...
....
EG, if NZO rose to $1.80 which is extremely likely at some time... MD Will bring out his bag of tricks and use NZO against his opportunity cost holdings...or compare market returns to SP performance over the last 4years...
....
...
..
.
The SP graph of NZO has been trending up on the one and two year charts...... Over the last two years there were times when the SP blewout above the trend and times when SP was below... MD can conviently pull out times when SP was higher than the uptrend moving average and then say SP has gone sideways (from a peak)....
....
The company is still at screaming undervaluation... Ive discussed the low down vs big up, which makes NZO apart of any diversified portfolio....
The only thing wrong with the share price of this company is that it got ahead of itself early on (years ago) and because it this, its been pushed sideways for many years..
The new era of NZO in Production stage will see a new Era for the value of this company...
...
Ive always thought of it as a free 'Pike'...
If Kupe comes through which is a certainty, with Tui chugging along... then Pike is free...
With Pike production, Kupe next year... then SP will be a multiple of where it is today..The great thing about this is that NZO DONOT need a direction to get SP appreciation...
current Production stage and development stages going into production will take care of SP growth...
:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, I see you are on to me. The brain dead that watched the option price drop from 30c to the pittance it is now are screaming about how clever they are. The long term holders that have sat it out for the last three and a bit years are doing similar, when they are still playing catchup.
They dont understand that if the options get excercised at $1-50 then that will dilute the sp back to that level. The company give the brain dead a 5c divi, you and i both know thats a stupid thing to do when you contradict it with options to buy more shares. I said right at the start the options were worth 5c to accomodate risk thats why i sold mine at 9c and bought PPP at 11c.
With hindesight i never thought people would be dumb enough to to pay six times my valuation on them silly me. Heaps of money coming in at the moment, sp must go up but lots of very frustrated punters will learn a few lessons in the future. I would think if the options do get into the money it only adds more shares giving Everyone a smaller share in a company that pays it back in a dividend, when at this stage should be going for the big time. They are doing that to pacify the brain dead, who dont understand what exploration companies are all about. I am off for at least a couple of months very shortly so will be in touch SHREWDY by E-Mail when i get back so please enlighten the brain dead in my absence what exploration companies are supposed to do, other than swill at the trough. Your old Mate Macdunk

[Toddy]

SHREWDY, I see you are on to me. The brain dead that watched the option price drop from 30c to the pittance it is now are screaming about how clever they are. The long term holders that have sat it out for the last three and a bit years are doing similar, when they are still playing catchup.
They dont understand that if the options get excercised at $1-50 then that will dilute the sp back to that level. The company give the brain dead a 5c divi, you and i both know thats a stupid thing to do when you contradict it with options to buy more shares. I said right at the start the options were worth 5c to accomodate risk thats why i sold mine at 9c and bought PPP at 11c.
With hindesight i never thought people would be dumb enough to to pay six times my valuation on them silly me. Heaps of money coming in at the moment, sp must go up but lots of very frustrated punters will learn a few lessons in the future. I would think if the options do get into the money it only adds more shares giving Everyone a smaller share in a company that pays it back in a dividend, when at this stage should be going for the big time. They are doing that to pacify the brain dead, who dont understand what exploration companies are all about. I am off for at least a couple of months very shortly so will be in touch SHREWDY by E-Mail when i get back so please enlighten the brain dead in my absence what exploration companies are supposed to do, other than swill at the trough. Your old Mate Macdunk

Macdunk

'Dumb', 'brain dead' etc etc Your break will do everyone a world of good.

[BigBob]

I said right at the start the options were worth 5c to accomodate risk thats why i sold mine at 9c and bought PPP at 11c.



With hindesight i never thought people would be dumb enough to to pay six times my valuation on them silly me

Oh, MacDunk.... You're so frigging clever mate.... How much do you think the options would be worth now if Tieke or Hector or both had struck oil....? do you think that the fact they were yet to spud might have had something to do with the 30c they traded at...? Of course with hindsight, and isn't hindsight a great thing, they were both dusters and you are now proven just about right with your 5c valuation... but of course you'll probably tell us that your timeline showed you that there was no oil in them holes.....!!!

By the way, how's PEM working out for you....?

DISC: Blue-eyed and happy with both my NZO and my free oppies....

[duncan macgregor]

BIG BOB & TODDY, It sure beats bleating on about PEAK OIL DONT YOU THINK?. Or is that a silly question. Macdunk

[zigzag]

Yahoo! Now everyone is swilling at the trough. Well, not quite everyone. Methinks one little piggy has missed out, but he's going away to try and get over it, and escape the slagging he so richly deserves.

[Toddy]

BIG BOB & TODDY, It sure beats bleating on about PEAK OIL DONT YOU THINK?. Or is that a silly question. Macdunk

You can bleat on about PEAK TUI OIL all you like, and bleat on about the $100pb price tag, and about the under budget cost of $10pb.

Then we can talk about the KUPE oil, when oil is at $120pb, and the NZD has fallen back to US 60 cents.

But not now, it can wait until you are back from where ever you are going. Where are you going, maybe the WestCoast to check out Pike, or heading overseas to check out the international market for top quaiity hard coking coal.

Don't wory about needing to post on this site to offset the rampers. There is no longer any need for rampers, the SP will look after itself.

Finally, NZO is paying its way. I too dumped this stock and took a massive (six figure) loss after losing faith in the management. I only bought back in late last year. Now I can really see a great future.

[duncan macgregor]

TODDY, I am off fishing for a while just testing the bait no offence meant, hope you and the others [INCLUDING THE BRAIN DEAD] have a win. Wait until i get back, and hit me up with all your i told you soes. Sometimes you can land big fish with small hooks, most of the time you only catch little undersize snappers that you throw back. Big crash at the end of the year coming up, keep a weather eye open for that. Macdunk

[zorba]

.

MacKlunk,

The same old recycled tamporal extrusions and abdominal emmanations !!!!

Geta life, getta offa da dunny an join da party !!!!

There's still a heap of dough to be made with NZO !!!!

In the meantime ....

McKlunks gunna do a bunk
He'll be lost to da board
As off to sea he doth slunk
Bring back a fishy hoard
To make up 4 da dough
He has tossed overboard
What a way to go !!!!
.

[trackers]

You can bleat on about PEAK TUI OIL all you like, and bleat on about the $100pb price tag, and about the under budget cost of $10pb.

Then we can talk about the KUPE oil, when oil is at $120pb, and the NZD has fallen back to US 60 cents.

But not now, it can wait until you are back from where ever you are going. Where are you going, maybe the WestCoast to check out Pike, or heading overseas to check out the international market for top quaiity hard coking coal.

Don't wory about needing to post on this site to offset the rampers. There is no longer any need for rampers, the SP will look after itself.

Finally, NZO is paying its way. I too dumped this stock and took a massive (six figure) loss after losing faith in the management. I only bought back in late last year. Now I can really see a great future.

I agree with 90% of that.

"and the NZD has fallen back to US 60 cents."

WTF? You're looking wayyy down the track for that to happen

[tim23]

Hey if the options are converted there will be a dilution but the company will also approx have an additional 75c a share in cash! I think the original options were issued free on a 1:2 basis plus the 1:10 early 2007 so its not all bad?

[tim23]

Arjay - the Herald announcementment estimates 10,000 of 12,000 are retail investors so I guess that reinforces my view that the mum & das are already in the stock?

[Lion]

Share price has passed my cent a day line today. Up 29c since the year's low of 101, just 20c to go now to hit 150.

The cent-a-day line hits 150 on April 1st.

(Bah! How do I get my image to be there all the time, like Phaedrus does? It's a nice little graph, made it myself, I did)

[Sumnerned]

It's now the end of the first month since some of us felt a likely trend would be a 1c per day rise. We've had 19 trading days and the price has gone from 107c to 130c. We really need to discount the new price somewhat, since it includes the 5c divi. So lets say ex ex-div price of 125c.

18c rise in 19 days.

If this trend continues, we get to 150c around mid-May. Midyear price around 180c.

[digger]

Lion good call on your cent a day.NZO was so and is still so undervalued that you just might get it to 1-80 or even 2 dollars. We should all keep in mind that TUI has had to pay off all carried forward tax loses,as well as support the other two developing projects ,then generate sufficent cash flow to pay a dividend. All this in 5 months. So when the market finally sees that in the next 6 months the company will be able fund a bigger end of year dividend as there is no more tax losses to write off. The only offsetting here is that TUI water cut should gradually increase but hopefully stay somewhere near 40000 per day. The image that NZO can deliver is slowly sinking in.
So Lion your cent a day is still achievable for some time yet.
Also note that in Dec i guessed NZO at 1-30 by end of January. Out by one month.

[dsurf]

READING BETWEEN THE LINES ITS VERY CLEAR NOG HAS NO LONG TERM IN HOLDING PIKE. NOG JUST WANTS TO STICK TO OIL @ GAS EXPLORATION I BELIEVE NOG WILL SELL PRC ON FIRST SHOVEL OF COAL . AND IT WOULD HAVE BOTH CO SHARE HOLDERS BANGING ON THERE DOOR. BIG BIG BIG $$$$ MONNEY BEFORE JUNE 08 $$$$ MONNEY HOLDING NOG;):cool: YOUR THOUGHTS

I think you are 6 to 12 months early - but yes big money - first coal is July - My guess is the transport chain needs to be filled & some coal delivered before the big $ arrives.

Of course with macdunks big bang dec 08 then certain recession, coal price down, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaadonk

[Nitaa]

What a wondeful February.

I miised out on cheap options but at the end i have lost anything. The sudden sp rise has been a little surprising really. Most of us new the fundamentals were there but it has seemed to take wile for investors to pick up on this good thing. All info has been out in the public domain and the only real surprise is the divvy. Some mentioned that if they want the options converted then they shouldnt announce a divvy. My opinion is it shows investors the nzo is a cash cow with plenty more revenue to come. Its a confidence booster and judging by the sp movement others seem to agree.

Now Macdunk. Since you have been burnt by NZO, you have tried to unreasonably tkae other nzo holders with you. bbeeeeeepppp. wrong answer my friend. others are smarter than you and have seen the bigger piicture.

Remember our little debate about your silly, unrealistic 5% trailing stop loss. buy at 1.10..up to 1.17 then get kicked out at 1.11. Holders enjoy about a 20% gain over that 1 month period while you made less than 1% profit.This is the downside of 2 bit traders like yourself who dont have a solid game plan. Meanwhile the longer term holders dont care about 1, 2 or 3 month drops or 1, 2 or 3 year stagflation. Now what we have is most short, medium and long term holders are creaming it while the short term traders are losing..

Now back to nzo rather than MD. History will show that profit takers will come in and knock the sp down even up to 100% of the initial gain. Although i expect some profit taking, this rise seems based on fundamantles and we could have some way to go before nzo sp runs out of steam. Personally i wont be surprised if we get a retracement back to 1.15 to 1.20 but as i have mentioned before, i dont care about the movements, i wil only care on what i sell nzo for.

[bermuda]

READING BETWEEN THE LINES ITS VERY CLEAR NOG HAS NO LONG TERM IN HOLDING PIKE. NOG JUST WANTS TO STICK TO OIL @ GAS EXPLORATION I BELIEVE NOG WILL SELL PRC ON FIRST SHOVEL OF COAL . AND IT WOULD HAVE BOTH CO SHARE HOLDERS BANGING ON THERE DOOR. BIG BIG BIG $$$$ MONNEY BEFORE JUNE 08 $$$$ MONNEY HOLDING NOG;):cool: YOUR THOUGHTS

If NZO wanted some money for some possible aquisition then okay , I might go along with you.

But if they want to maximise value it would be better to wait until production was at maximum in about 2 years time.

Coal will have gone even higher and Port Darylymple's infrastructure ( Queensland bootleneck ) wont have been completed.

PRC is a big story.

Another stock seriously undervalued by sentiment.

[bermuda]

What a wondeful February.

I miised out on cheap options but at the end i have lost anything. The sudden sp rise has been a little surprising really. Most of us new the fundamentals were there but it has seemed to take wile for investors to pick up on this good thing. All info has been out in the public domain and the only real surprise is the divvy. Some mentioned that if they want the options converted then they shouldnt announce a divvy. My opinion is it shows investors the nzo is a cash cow with plenty more revenue to come. Its a confidence booster and judging by the sp movement others seem to agree.

Now Macdunk. Since you have been burnt by NZO, you have tried to unreasonably tkae other nzo holders with you. bbeeeeeepppp. wrong answer my friend. others are smarter than you and have seen the bigger piicture.

Remember our little debate about your silly, unrealistic 5% trailing stop loss. buy at 1.10..up to 1.17 then get kicked out at 1.11. Holders enjoy about a 20% gain over that 1 month period while you made less than 1% profit.This is the downside of 2 bit traders like yourself who dont have a solid game plan. Meanwhile the longer term holders dont care about 1, 2 or 3 month drops or 1, 2 or 3 year stagflation. Now what we have is most short, medium and long term holders are creaming it while the short term traders are losing..

Now back to nzo rather than MD. History will show that profit takers will come in and knock the sp down even up to 100% of the initial gain. Although i expect some profit taking, this rise seems based on fundamantles and we could have some way to go before nzo sp runs out of steam. Personally i wont be surprised if we get a retracement back to 1.15 to 1.20 but as i have mentioned before, i dont care about the movements, i wil only care on what i sell nzo for.


Nita,
Macdunk is trained in a different way. He can get in and out quicker than most and it's pretty well reseached. He has made some very good overall market decisions but he gets left behind when a stock's fundamentals gives sentiment a kick for touch.

[remy]

why does everyone on here talk about MD so much, is he some sharetrader celebrity

[tim23]

Trained in what - being brain dead or blue eyed?

[bermuda]

Trained in what - being brain dead or blue eyed?

Give Macdunk some respect. He got out of the market before the last 2 crashes. I wanted to join him but thought my junior oilers could weather the storm. But alas I was wrong and MacDunk was right.

That's why I love undervalued sentiment stocks like NZO., PRC, BOW. VPE, PES, TEX and RPM.

All well undervalued and about to shine.

[tim23]

You shouldn't believe everything you read should you? Why pay homage?

[sideline]

Lion good call on your cent a day.NZO was so and is still so undervalued that you just might get it to 1-80 or even 2 dollars. We should all keep in mind that TUI has had to pay off all carried forward tax loses,as well as support the other two developing projects ,then generate sufficent cash flow to pay a dividend. All this in 5 months. So when the market finally sees that in the next 6 months the company will be able fund a bigger end of year dividend as there is no more tax losses to write off. The only offsetting here is that TUI water cut should gradually increase but hopefully stay somewhere near 40000 per day. The image that NZO can deliver is slowly sinking in.
So Lion your cent a day is still achievable for some time yet.
Also note that in Dec i guessed NZO at 1-30 by end of January. Out by one month.

Hi digger,
just to clarify the carried forward tax losses: They have not been all used up yet. The royalty tax
regime for petroleum exploration means that a minimum amount of tax is payable anyway, even if
you have previous losses! That minimum tax rate is, I believe, 20% in NZO's case. After that is paid a
portion of the tax losses is used to offset the additional tax NZO would have to pay as income tax
(33% minus the 20% already paid). So the previous losses save NZO at the moment about 13% tax
and will therefore be used up rather slowly.

Effectively NZO will operate at a 20% tax rate until the carried forward losses are used up that way,
which I would expect to take a few years.

[cazzer]

Sideline,

Is the royalty payable actually income tax? With only half a year gone, NZO may also be looking ahead to full year forecast and anticipate all losses being utilised in this year or shortly into next year. Paying tax now will minimise IRD interest charges and allow them to get that tax straight out to shareholders as imputation credits- makes sense.

[manxman]

http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2004/news_item.2007-05-07.9848686155?searchterm=ROYALTIES

Royalty based incentives:

Gas and oil producers pay two forms of royalty, an ad valorem royalty (AVR), which currently applies at a rate of 5% of gross revenue from the sale of petroleum, and an accounting profit royalty (APR), which currently applies at a rate of 20% of net revenues from the sale of petroleum, after deducting production expenses incurred under the same, or a related, permit. Permit holders are required to pay the higher of the two royalties in any year.

Proposed changes to the status quo will be managed through review of the Crown Minerals Programme for Petroleum. The proposed changes are detailed below:

reducing the ad valorem royalty [AVR] rate from 5 per cent to 1 per cent for gas (oil will remain at 5 per cent) for discoveries made within the period;
allowing a deduction in relation to the accounting profit royalty [APR] on production from discoveries, within the period, of exploration and prospecting costs incurred in New Zealand and allowing such costs to be carried forward with interest;
reducing the accounting profit royalty (APR) from 20 per cent to 15 per cent on the first $750 million [cumulative] gross sales of petroleum offshore and the first $250 million [cumulative] onshore on discoveries within the period.

Seems to me that the APR will now be in the 20% bracket, with the AVR at 5%. With marginal costs of the order of $10 per bbl, the APR is rapidly going to become the one that applies.

Mx

[digger]

Hi digger,
just to clarify the carried forward tax losses: They have not been all used up yet. The royalty tax
regime for petroleum exploration means that a minimum amount of tax is payable anyway, even if
you have previous losses! That minimum tax rate is, I believe, 20% in NZO's case. After that is paid a
portion of the tax losses is used to offset the additional tax NZO would have to pay as income tax
(33% minus the 20% already paid). So the previous losses save NZO at the moment about 13% tax
and will therefore be used up rather slowly.

Effectively NZO will operate at a 20% tax rate until the carried forward losses are used up that way,
which I would expect to take a few years.

Thanks sideline.
Would that not make it better still,as some losses can be written off in the future. Still good to have it set out as i was having some second thoughts that all the losses could be used up so quickly.
So it get imputation's credits tax must be payed on that amount.Is that correct?
Are you an accountant sideline? Could you set out how credits come available for dividends in a case like this. For some reason i always thought such credits were only available after all tax losses were used up. Seems that is not the case.

[duncan macgregor]

why does everyone on here talk about MD so much, is he some sharetrader celebrity Its really quite simple REMY if you understand herd behaviour. They love to herd up in little groups to attack the one that dares to contradict the fanatical i am right you are wrong bigoted view point. Basic company fundamentals in the medium term are very good, Long term is a very different story.
Swilling at the trough, 5c divi in one hand for the brain dead, followed by more shares with a dilutionery effect on the other. The company has plenty of money, why treat the mug punters to a 5c divi then issue more shares to water the sp down. I would think that when all the back slapping is over with the sp back to what it was over three years ago some of them might wake up to reality.
Anyway guys i am out your hair for a couple of months, but will be back to join you all before pass the parcel, so good luck hope to be proved wrong in the long term. It gives you all a chance to talk about peak oil or the price of it in a falling USD. Macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

.... Anyway guys i am out your hair for a couple of months, ....

Please go.

Now.

No need to send a postcard.

Have a good time
Paper Tiger

[zorba]

.
MacKlunk,

The same old recycled tamporal extrusions and abdominal emmanations !!!!

Geta life, getta offa da dunny an join da party !!!!

There's still a heap of dough to be made with NZeeO !!!!

In the meantime ....

McKlunks gunna do a bunk
He'll be lost to da board
Off to sea he doth slunk
Bring back a fishy hoard
To make up da dough
He hath tossed overboard
What a way to go !!!!
.

[zorba]

.
OMG ..... oil cracks US$102 a barrel ..... !!!!

What a curve !!!!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/48

[Sehnsucht888]

READING BETWEEN THE LINES ITS VERY CLEAR NOG HAS NO LONG TERM IN HOLDING PIKE. NOG JUST WANTS TO STICK TO OIL @ GAS EXPLORATION I BELIEVE NOG WILL SELL PRC ON FIRST SHOVEL OF COAL . AND IT WOULD HAVE BOTH CO SHARE HOLDERS BANGING ON THERE DOOR. BIG BIG BIG $$$$ MONNEY BEFORE JUNE 08 $$$$ MONNEY HOLDING NOG;):cool: YOUR THOUGHTS

No money from Pike that early - from the dom post today:
"Pike River Coal is fine-tuning its coal transport plans as it looks to take advantage of high world coking coal prices when it starts production before December."
"PRC - which is due to start coal production in the fourth quarter of this year"

[sideline]

Hi digger,
no I am not an accountant. Just reading the crown minerals site and other tax information sources
and trying to make sense of it.
Read somewhere that royalties count towards tax paid by a company, maybe an accountant
familiar with this area can clarify.
A few notes from the just published and from previous financial statements of NZO:

on page 3 of the last report it states


($ '000)
Income tax (expense)/benefit (15,719)
Royalties expense (6,528)


so clearly both are paid. Since the divvy to be paid is around 13 million, 6.5 million of the
presumably 15 million income tax paid would be passed on to shareholders as imputation credits.

Come to think of it, income tax plus royalties makes 22m, which is approximately 33&#37;
of the " Profit/(loss) before income tax and royalties: 63 million".
So maybe NO previous losses have been utilised here at all!!! What is going on????

on the note of how big the previous losses are it says in the Annual report 2007, page 36


18. TAXATION

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited and wholly owned subsidiaries have a net future
income tax benefi t, including losses carried forward, at
30 June 2007 of $138,857,000 (2006 $76,893,000). These tax losses are not
included as an asset in the statement of fi nancial position as
the benefi t is not virtually certain of being realised.



Clearly, 138 million can not have been used up yet.
But NZO should now be able to use some of those since it produces profits!

It seems the issue just got murkier instead of clearer.

[zac]

134c and building momentum to go past $1.50. With a guaranteed cash flow and massive tax losses to carry forward the s/p is still underdone and the oppies are looking better than an even bet to be in the money.

[tim23]

I am still happy to be getting a dividend even if it means being brain dead (whatever that means?)

[peterfindlay]

Hi digger,
no I am not an accountant. Just reading the crown minerals site and other tax information sources
and trying to make sense of it.
Read somewhere that royalties count towards tax paid by a company, maybe an accountant
familiar with this area can clarify.
A few notes from the just published and from previous financial statements of NZO:

on page 3 of the last report it states


($ '000)
Income tax (expense)/benefit (15,719)
Royalties expense (6,528)


so clearly both are paid. Since the divvy to be paid is around 13 million, 6.5 million of the
presumably 15 million income tax paid would be passed on to shareholders as imputation credits.

Come to think of it, income tax plus royalties makes 22m, which is approximately 33%
of the " Profit/(loss) before income tax and royalties: 63 million".
So maybe NO previous losses have been utilised here at all!!! What is going on????

on the note of how big the previous losses are it says in the Annual report 2007, page 36


18. TAXATION

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited and wholly owned subsidiaries have a net future
income tax benefi t, including losses carried forward, at
30 June 2007 of $138,857,000 (2006 $76,893,000). These tax losses are not
included as an asset in the statement of fi nancial position as
the benefi t is not virtually certain of being realised.



Clearly, 138 million can not have been used up yet.
But NZO should now be able to use some of those since it produces profits!

It seems the issue just got murkier instead of clearer.
I hope this helps explain the tax losses:

NZOG started 2007/08 with $138m in accumulated losses.

Approximately $85m is available to be used this financial year but the rest has to be carried forward to future years. In saying this the company has provided clear guidance as to the minimum profit level for the year ended 30 June 2008.

As the $85m will likely be exceeded by the taxable profit made in the full year, NZOG has paid provisional tax.

Payment of this provisional tax means NZOG can offer a 5c dividend fully imputed.

NZOG continues to accumulate further tax losses, mainly from the Kupe development, and will have tax losses to offset against company tax for the next 8 years at least.

I expect that in the future the company will provide an accurate idea not only of the amount of the tax losses to be carried forward, but also regarding the timing of their availability.

[zorba]

.
Thanks Peter,

Very useful post ........ looks like NZOG are in v good position to keep on paying imputed divvies as well as being able to offset future profits against the current and future Kupe construction costs and other carried over expenses.

Do some of these carried over expenses relate to Pike ?

NZOG has been spending money on Pike for over 10 years and in the last 2 or 3 years it was substantial amounts. Can these historical outgoings also be offset against future profits ?

Perhaps they are already included in the $138m of accumulated losses listed in the 2007 annual report ?
.

[zac]

Question: With cash in the Bank, a healthy cash flow, forward tax losses (assuming they can be retained) ,high oil prices, and forward prospects, is not NZO a juicy t/o target after the option expiry date?

[shasta]

Question: With cash in the Bank, a healthy cash flow, forward tax losses (assuming they can be retained) ,high oil prices, and forward prospects, is not NZO a juicy t/o target after the option expiry date?

Maybe for someone wanting in on Kupe.

Though i'd see the Pike River holding putting some off.

Perhaps once they sell off Pike & have more cash, then a T/O target?

[777]

Another area for NZO to look at.

Stuff > Business > Story
Seismic data points to possible huge NZ oil field
NZPA | Friday, 29 February 2008


Crown Minerals plans to unveil details of a new sedimentary basin potentially more productive than the Taranaki oilfields, the National Business Review reported today.
Crown Minerals and GNS, a state-owned geological researcher, will present details of their seismic exploration of the Raukumara basin, off the North Island's east coast, at a national conference in March.
It has raised hopes that the country may strike another vein of oil as rich as the Taranaki oil field.
GNS exploration geophysicist Chris Uruski said New Zealand's total oil stocks could be around 10 times as large as Taranaki's.
GNS was contracted to probe the Raukumara basin with seismic technology, which detected "seismic anomalies" that could indicate the presence of hydrocarbons such as oil and gas.
Mr Uruski said Raukumara was geologically interesting.
"No one really knew it was there."
It is a much thicker basin than Taranaki, with around 13km of sedimentary rock as opposed to only about 8km at Taranaki.
That means more hydrocarbons could be trapped in the basin itself and at a better depth for expelling oil.
Its geological folds are less likely to have leaded hydrocarbons because it doesn't have the same broken ground as the Taranaki basin, which is near a faultline.

[upside_umop]

Wasnt expecting a dividend, but the shareprice has reacted reasonably well.
I think people are getting a little carried away...this dividend appears to be a one-off to me.
The company has signalled clearly that it was for a period of good performance from tui and was a reward to shareholders.
Since tui is expected to have water cut, and the company to have other projects to get off the ground (further developments over next few years to get to 25mmboe reserves....) i would think a final dividend is highly unlikely, as is any other future dividends until kupe is up and running.
Even so, this little reward will help me, as a poor student out nicely :)

I think that the options have a very real chance, on 20 cents out, but momoho will have to strike...so really, for options to be converted, you have to look at the probability of momoho. The valuation by McDougall Stuart on Kupe was reasonably low......

disc: slightly more 16000 NZO... im still a small player :P.....Possibly looking to accumulate more pre momoho.

[bermuda]

Wasnt expecting a dividend, but the shareprice has reacted reasonably well.
I think people are getting a little carried away...this dividend appears to be a one-off to me.
The company has signalled clearly that it was for a period of good performance from tui and was a reward to shareholders.
Since tui is expected to have water cut, and the company to have other projects to get off the ground (further developments over next few years to get to 25mmboe reserves....) i would think a final dividend is highly unlikely, as is any other future dividends until kupe is up and running.
Even so, this little reward will help me, as a poor student out nicely :)

I think that the options have a very real chance, on 20 cents out, but momoho will have to strike...so really, for options to be converted, you have to look at the probability of momoho. The valuation by McDougall Stuart on Kupe was reasonably low......

disc: slightly more 16000 NZO... im still a small player :P.....Possibly looking to accumulate more pre momoho.

Hi upside down,Sorry not to see you at our latest Chch meeting.

NZO have a strategy for getting the options exercised.They said that in the AR.

Firstly they knew the financials would do the talking.
Secondlly they knew a dividend would boost the shareprice
Thirdly they know that the successful completion of the Kupe wells will add value
Fouthly they know that the new fantastic coking coal price ( could be $200 ) will give a big lift to PRC.......and
Fifthly and most importantly, they know that any decent success at Momoho will see the shareprice go to 1.80 plus and thus the options will be exercised.

Of course this is the theory because in practice the Heads will drop as shareholders sell down to provide funds for the options exercise.

NZO will try and keep the dividend. In another 12 months they will be even flusher. But in the meantime it has served its purpose of getting the sp nearer the target.

[trackers]

134c and building momentum to go past $1.50. With a guaranteed cash flow and massive tax losses to carry forward the s/p is still underdone and the oppies are looking better than an even bet to be in the money.

After a 6 month hiatus as a holder I'm back in via the oppies. SP looks strong, POO looks great, and Pike just around the corner. Hoping for a 2-bagger tbh

[upside_umop]

hey bermuda,
i made it to the last meeting...remember!?
1) the financials are doing the talking indeed. nzx.com states a pe of 6ish..but will be more like 4ish from full report.
2) the dividend has shown the company is willing to reward its shareholders, which shows a change of sentiment towards the stock by the investors.
3) the drills will derisk the project hugely!
4) prc will do ok from high price of coal...but its not yet producing by june, so any further news of delays will have adverse impacts too sp and nzo sp...
5) im thinking momoho will have great results to sp too, more than mcdougall stuart estimates...

i reckon people would rather just sell down their oppies if they are in the money and cant afford to buy the heads, which would leave an opportunity for profit if od's are oversold relative to heads price..

it will be interesting to see if they hold the dividend...i just read some more points now from the website saying they have determined a divend policy with a reasonable proportion of profits by an annual dividend....so maybe this dividend was the annual one...and we cant expect a final dividend...

i will also be looking at entry in od's...was tempted at 4.5 cents when that report came out!

[digger]

Fifthly and most importantly, they know that any decent success at Momoho will see the shareprice go to 1.80 plus and thus the options will be exercised. Bermuda quote.

I had a private few words with DS at the AGM. He indicated that Momoho lies between two successful drills and is about as near a certainty as you can get before the actual drill.I got the impression it was on the plus side of 50% but he did not say that in so many words,but we can go into this drill with a higher hope of success than the others. Naturally that is just as well as the others were all failures or near failures.
A succesful Momoho will push the SP past the conversion price required.

[shasta]

Fifthly and most importantly, they know that any decent success at Momoho will see the shareprice go to 1.80 plus and thus the options will be exercised. Bermuda quote.

I had a private few words with DS at the AGM. He indicated that Momoho lies between two successful drills and is about as near a certainty as you can get before the actual drill.I got the impression it was on the plus side of 50% but he did not say that in so many words,but we can go into this drill with a higher hope of success than the others. Naturally that is just as well as the others were all failures or near failures.
A succesful Momoho will push the SP past the conversion price required.

Digger

Weren't NZO bullish on Hector?

[digger]

Digger

Weren't NZO bullish on Hector?

No,AWE was but NZO were about 1 in 8. About the same odds as the French had of beating the All Blacks. In fact what DS said stood out as it was the only predrill that you could say they are bullish on. Of coa-rse being bullish does no in any way alter the well and really we just have to wait the drill results. Late May or June on current progress.

[manxman]

Of course this is the theory because in practice the Heads will drop as shareholders sell down to provide funds for the options exercise.



I fear you are right Bermuda. One way or another the extra money hoovered up by the exercise of the ODs will slow the upward march of the share price.
For reasons which I don't understand, a fifth rate finance company can attract oodles of money, while a cracking good investment like NZO scares the daylights out of the market. The ODs will suck in $200 million plus, which is a big lump for the NZX to raise.

Certainly expect to see some strange pricing as the day nears and option holders start to worry about raising cash. May be a time to top up.

If Momoho finds anything, will a proper evaluation be available in time for June 30? The ASX might be a bit sticky about a premature announcement, and we must remember that NZO is not the operator. Origin will be calling the shots.

Mx

[Steve]

It looks like someone has cashed in their 2 options for shares @ $1.50!

[bermuda]

No,AWE was but NZO were about 1 in 8. About the same odds as the French had of beating the All Blacks. In fact what DS said stood out as it was the only predrill that you could say they are bullish on. Of coa-rse being bullish does no in any way alter the well and really we just have to wait the drill results. Late May or June on current progress.

Digger,
You are spot on. NZO said 1 in 8.

You must be enjoying this Digger and bloody good luck to you. You have stood by this through thick and thin.......and to the victor go the spoils.

[sideline]

It looks like someone has cashed in their 2 options for shares @ $1.50!

Great move!! As NZO nears the $1.50 mark we will see a lot more of this - after all head shares
owned on 4 April will qualify for the dividend, options will not.

[digger]

Digger,
You are spot on. NZO said 1 in 8.

You must be enjoying this Digger and bloody good luck to you. You have stood by this through thick and thin.......and to the victor go the spoils.

Yes but i am planning to sell out completly.Can you believe it after all i have said and supported this company. Now i am going to sell. In fact i have the off market transfer forms in front of me. The luckly buyer is Ruiohauraki LTD. The Ruihauraki stream runs through our farm so we started up a company two years ago and decided to call it by that name.Transfering the shares to our company has some advantages after our deaths and some possible tax benifits now.Also the small dividend i will receive on 18 April i would rather hide away from general inspection.So if next week there is a minor jump in volumn it could be just me doing my thing. However just because my name will be removed from the back of the annual you will not be hearing the last of Digger.
My famile who have not always supported my investment here are now accepting my bragging rights as of a right. And the best is yet to come--3 to 4 dollars one years after all three projects are up and running. So all you lurkers get in soon or forever cry in your beer.

[bermuda]

Yes but i am planning to sell out completly.Can you believe it after all i have said and supported this company. Now i am going to sell. In fact i have the off market transfer forms in front of me. The luckly buyer is Ruiohauraki LTD. The Ruihauraki stream runs through our farm so we started up a company two years ago and decided to call it by that name.Transfering the shares to our company has some advantages after our deaths and some possible tax benifits now.Also the small dividend i will receive on 18 April i would rather hide away from general inspection.So if next week there is a minor jump in volumn it could be just me doing my thing. However just because my name will be removed from the back of the annual you will not be hearing the last of Digger.
My famile who have not always supported my investment here are now accepting my bragging rights as of a right. And the best is yet to come--3 to 4 dollars one years after all three projects are up and running. So all you lurkers get in soon or forever cry in your beer.

Digger,
You are a legend mate.

Good luck to you. I know what you mean when even your mates question your judgement.

In the end though 'you can now accept your bragging rights as of right'

And...plenty more to come eh.

Well done Digger.

[tim23]

Upside mop - the divy is hardly a one-off I think have stated that this will be 12 monthly - do the mathes, they will be bigger from now on not 1 off!!

[upside_umop]

it will be interesting to see if they hold the dividend...i just read some more points now from the website saying they have determined a divend policy with a reasonable proportion of profits by an annual dividend....so maybe this dividend was the annual one...and we cant expect a final dividend...


i would think this would be a one off interim dividend tim123, as it states annual dividend, which would then usually come at the end of the financial year..

what im saying is, its giving off strange signals...but they stated their intentions with the dividend policy, and imo the interim one was with the soul purpose of getting the od's over the line to show the dividend policy which will reward the shareholders... with the od's in the money, they will certainly be looking for acquistion....what else could they do with 200m? GSB? The market cap will be over 600 million...thats getting up there.

[manxman]

The market cap will be over 600 million...thats getting up there.


And that means every index tracking fund will have to have a holding.
The oppies thus become a useful tool to guarantee a place at the table.
Cheap insurance at 7 cents?

Mx

[manxman]

My famile who have not always supported my investment here are now accepting my bragging rights as of a right. And the best is yet to come--3 to 4 dollars one years after all three projects are up and running. So all you lurkers get in soon or forever cry in your beer.

Congratulations Digger
Our shares were sold to a company owned by a family trust at the end of January........ - all lawyer stuff, but hey -the bragging rights stay. Mrs Manxie is looking at me with a look verging on respect - if we could get from there to lust that would be really cool. May you always live on a hill.

Mx

[Sumnerned]

Some great good-humoured posts today folks, it's been a pleasure reading them, and congratulations to those of you who've stuck with nzo through thick and thin. Your time has come!

I'm a relative newbie, bought in shortly before the OD's were announced, and have found it quite trying, once I joined ST, to see how many people were so anti. Hector and Tieke sure didn't help.

Being something of a contrarian I've recently swapped most of my heads for OD's, feeling that the short-term upside possibilities outweighed the risk, having previously bought more OD's when the scornful were at full cry.

Well done NZO and NZ.

BTW I read the ann as a clear commitment to dividends whenever there's a reasonable amount of cash around, and so with 200mil coming from OD's, most likely, most likely there'll be a good divi next year.

[bermuda]

Some great good-humoured posts today folks, it's been a pleasure reading them, and congratulations to those of you who've stuck with nzo through thick and thin. Your time has come!

I'm a relative newbie, bought in shortly before the OD's were announced, and have found it quite trying, once I joined ST, to see how many people were so anti. Hector and Tieke sure didn't help.

Being something of a contrarian I've recently swapped most of my heads for OD's, feeling that the short-term upside possibilities outweighed the risk, having previously bought more OD's when the scornful were at full cry.

Well done NZO and NZ.

BTW I read the ann as a clear commitment to dividends whenever there's a reasonable amount of cash around, and so with 200mil coming from OD's, most likely, most likely there'll be a good divi next year.

You are on to it.

The sentiment has changed. The fish are swimming the other way.

This could be very good.

[Nitaa]

NZO is going through a phase of about 4 years ago. A great feeling as a holder of course. I know i have said it all along, Kupe will prove itself as real cornerstone of NZO. Tui is a short term cash flow but Kupe is a long term good thing. I have also said that i believe NZO will sell out of Pike once its true value is realised. Still more delays and many obstacles to overcome short term. Labour shortage being a key one as NZO have already indicated i think. I am sure they will be hoping for Nat win in the election to make things a bit easier. On a positive side, coking coal prices are going off the scale. The timing is very good but would have been better if production could kick in the 1st half of '08. I am also surprised how NZO get some of their timelines so stuffed up especially with Pike.

I think digger is right and in the next couple of years to SP could go to any silly number, EG $4 or more. This is subject of course to all the the stars lining up nicely. Yogimeister, help is required in this one..

On a sadder note, Macdunk has been slam dunked. Although no one takes him seriosly with his bizzare systems that he changes more often than his kilt. I actually think that he really believed his systems were a scientic masterpiece. In saying that, I actually found him very funny. Very dopey, extremely narrow minded and has the about the brain the size of my budgie. Only difference, my budgie actually made some sense some times. But his biggest asset was he was extremely funny and someone i loved to bait. May he rest well until he comes back in a couple of months. RIP Macca you good thing, at least temporarily.

Sir Ed pic is going on a fiver i understand and I am wondering if macdunk can have his pic a a 1 cent coin. Although not in existance anymore i do believe he has earned it.

[AMR]

Actually MD picked NZO for the competition, and the share price is above the 30 day moving average, so he would be in.:)

The technical signals are all good. NZO just broke out of a trading range at 1.18, but if we are lucky we could see a retracement back down to that level before a long and glorious uptrend lasting years...:D:D PRC set off every single buy signal on my system with that 8% jump on thursday.

This one is tricky. Should I buy NZO or PRC?

[bermuda]

NZO is going through a phase of about 4 years ago. A great feeling as a holder of course. I know i have said it all along, Kupe will prove itself as real cornerstone of NZO. Tui is a short term cash flow but Kupe is a long term good thing. I have also said that i believe NZO will sell out of Pike once its true value is realised. Still more delays and many obstacles to overcome short term. Labour shortage being a key one as NZO have already indicated i think. I am sure they will be hoping for Nat win in the election to make things a bit easier. On a positive side, coking coal prices are going off the scale. The timing is very good but would have been better if production could kick in the 1st half of '08. I am also surprised how NZO get some of their timelines so stuffed up especially with Pike.

I think digger is right and in the next couple of years to SP could go to any silly number, EG $4 or more. This is subject of course to all the the stars lining up nicely. Yogimeister, help is required in this one..

On a sadder note, Macdunk has been slam dunked. Although no one takes him seriosly with his bizzare systems that he changes more often than his kilt. I actually think that he really believed his systems were a scientic masterpiece. In saying that, I actually found him very funny. Very dopey, extremely narrow minded and has the about the brain the size of my budgie. Only difference, my budgie actually made some sense some times. But his biggest asset was he was extremely funny and someone i loved to bait. May he rest well until he comes back in a couple of months. RIP Macca you good thing, at least temporarily.

Sir Ed pic is going on a fiver i understand and I am wondering if macdunk can have his pic a a 1 cent coin. Although not in existance anymore i do believe he has earned it.

Actually I enjoy MacDunk's contributions.You have to respaect a guy who is cashed up when the markets fall.

MacDunk uses all sorts of stuff. I use fundamentals. Sentiment has stuffed NZO for so long only the guys who knew the fundamentals won out. MacDunk doesnt understand how fundamentally undervalued NZO is.

And the reason is because he is always looking at the charts, T/A's or whatevever you call them )

Sentiment drives this stock and the fish have now started swimming the other way.........and the fundamentals say they have a lot of swimming to do.

[QOH]

Duncan's posts. They give me food for thought, despite depressing me sometimes when I wondered if I should have got out of NZO. Keep posting Duncan it's good to hear your thoughts.

[Steve]

Duncan's posts. They give me food for thought, despite depressing me sometimes when I wondered if I should have got out of NZO. Keep posting Duncan it's good to hear your thoughts.

It's always good to hear differing opinions as that gives a reason to think instead of just following the herd... ;)

[dsurf]

Think - PASS THE PARCEL, brain dead, blue eyed, peak oil, 30 day average, exchange rate gains in Ausi (never losses).

don't see much thought provoking stuff - ranting - self congratulations certainly

[Nitaa]

[QUOTE=dsurf;187899]Think - PASS THE PARCEL, brain dead, blue eyed, peak oil, 30 day average, exchange rate gains in Ausi (never losses).
Fair call. No point anyone congratulating MD on his freakish picks. He did enough of it himself. Minimum return 1500% pa. Anything less his timeline theory would have said, "Duncan, too small of return, time to spit this one out and go for better returns". He was freakish beyond belief and i am eagerly awaiting the release of his new best seller named "Smart investing versus the brain dead". Combine this book with Yogi's USD25,000 "ASTRO" whatever its called and one will be the complete investor.

[airedale]

;)Nita, I think the book could be titled "The Bare Knuckle No Holds Barred Guide To Investing."
I always take his posts with a grain of salt, but know that he sets out to be provocative. A few years ago he used to trumpet "Give me heaps,lads", when he was stimulating discussion.
At least with Dunc you know where you are and what you have got.
Have a good holiday, Dunc, back to the old country is it??:):):)

[Nitaa]

I like that book title Airedale. Duncs... i think there some possibilities there.

[fish]

IF YOU have geniune interest in purchasing more nog and most of you say (you are going to exercise your OPTION RIGHtS) why not use common sense and buy now $1.29.. with out being arrogant (sorry mcfunk) (D). listenning to most $1.50 is a SHOE IN.. your comments please. int hold a couple of nogs.;)

Malcolm i suspect most of us sold our options asap and bought more head shares with the proceeds . I certainly did and am now looking forward to the first of many big divies next month .
holding options is a bit like gambling and you stand to loose all . In contrast the sp is fundamentally undervalued and most likely will hit the $1.50 sometime this year . The company doesnt appear to need the cash from the options-they could have announced a later dividend so the options came with the dividend but chose not to .

[digger]

IF YOU have geniune interest in purchasing more nog and most of you say (you are going to exercise your OPTION RIGHtS) why not use common sense and buy now $1.29.. with out being arrogant (sorry mcfunk) (D). listenning to most $1.50 is a SHOE IN.. your comments please. int hold a couple of nogs.;)

Malcolm,you are making out that these are two seperate thing when in fact they really are the same.Buying at 1-29 now recognises that tui,kupe and pike have potential but still have going forward risk between now and 30 june.With time each risk get removed or bedded in and having to be costed into the SP.Neverthe less by 30 june these unknowns are known so are derisked.Remember the market does not like uncertainty. Coming very soon will be the KUPE development drills. Until now i and most others have paid little attention but as we are now into the gas zone things will hot up one way or another. The outcome of drilling Momoho will have a hugh effect in the SP,as will the development well results when test are finished and released. So all in all to buy an option now to buy the head share on 30 june is about the same as buying the head now for 1-29.Well that is what the market is saying in any event,so no mistory here.

[Lion]

Tapis at $106.44 today - that would be a record wouldn't it?
And the NZ$ dropping, altho still high.

I thought NZO did well to drop only a cent today, with other world markets dropping much more.

Small matter, but didn't NZO finish today at 130, not 129 as some have suggested ? Just below my cent-a-day line.

Go NOG!!

[KiwiBear]

Looks like technically NOG will pull back -formed a shooting star candle
that pierced the top bollinger on friday, with a confimed down day today.
Although the trend is still up in the long term, traders will bail out on this ramped upwards spike that hit previous high resistance band!

[bermuda]

Looks like technically NOG will pull back -formed a shooting star candle
that pierced the top bollinger on friday, with a confimed down day today.
Although the trend is still up in the long term, traders will bail out on this ramped upwards spike that hit previous high resistance band!

Hi KiwiBear,
I dont understand your technicals. Only see the fundamentals which are
1.Huge cash accumulation by NZO on Tui
2.PRC (30% owned) about to get a big boost with outstanding coking coal price hike
3.Kupe wells going well
4.Momoho to be drilled in May.
5.Brokers now seeing where NZO is heading
6. Price of oil to go higher.

But hey that's the market and the way CNBC is talking this morning anything could happen.

[bermuda]

Hi KiwiBear,
Judging from this morning's large trades 3m got sold due to your technical reasons and 3m got bought on fundamentals!

I would be surprised if we saw weakness now but as I said I dont understand technicals that well.

[BigBob]

Hi KiwiBear,
Judging from this morning's large trades 3m got sold due to your technical reasons and 3m got bought on fundamentals!

I would be surprised if we saw weakness now but as I said I dont understand technicals that well.

I think this was just Digger moving his holdings around....

[bermuda]

I think this was just Digger moving his holdings around....

Big Bob
I think you could be right. He did mention that he was going to move his holdings into some other trust for the family.Well spotted.

[AMR]

Looks like technically NOG will pull back -formed a shooting star candle
that pierced the top bollinger on friday, with a confimed down day today.
Although the trend is still up in the long term, traders will bail out on this ramped upwards spike that hit previous high resistance band!

Are you quite sure about that? To me it looks like NZO has broken the 1.30 resistance and that has now turned to a support.

[digger]

I think this was just Digger moving his holdings around....

No it was not me.Probably someone else doing it so the exact same reason. Once shares start paying dividends there are tax reasons as well as presonal reason why the div is better payed into a company than personally.
Want a laugh. Well by now it should be me shifting my shares into a company but as my spelling is well known i made out all the off market transfer forms only for my wife to spot that i had misspelled the company name. The forms would have been sent last friday so would be about now. So it should have been me but is someone else. Mine will be sent off this afternoon.The delay now is that you need these thing indepently witnessed.

[trackers]

Oil hits new record due to weak US dollar

New 2:00PM Tuesday March 04, 2008


The price of oil hit a fresh record high today as the dollar continued to fall against other major currencies and on expectations that Opec will remain stubborn on its output policy.
The dollar tumbled to lifetime lows against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Monday before regaining some lost ground after better-than-expected US manufacturing data.
US crude oil for April delivery was up US$1.72 at US$103.56 a barrel at 1838 GMT, after an earlier record high of US$103.95.
London Brent crude was up US$1.62 up at US$101.72 a barrel.
"There is no top in sight yet for crude futures because hedge funds are looking at how far the US dollar will fall," said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in Chicago.
"They are buying commodities to hedge against inflation because hanging on to the dollar means they lose value."
- REUTERS



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10496097

[dsurf]

Looks like technically NOG will pull back -formed a shooting star candle
that pierced the top bollinger on friday, with a confimed down day today.
Although the trend is still up in the long term, traders will bail out on this ramped upwards spike that hit previous high resistance band!

shooting stars are more powerful with a gap & if it is a down day, however is often a precursor to a fall. I am not sure that there was follow through yesterday though cos the price tried to go below the base of the shooting star candle and failed, closing at 1.30. ie the opening price of the day before, so you could argue that the two days trading wiped it out & we are back where we were after the bullish run up. Suggests to me far more buying than there has been for a looooong time ( 3 yrs?)

[sideline]

forget what was previously here, it was wrong!

[sideline]

I think this was just Digger moving his holdings around....

2007 annual report lists a 3m holding for 'Exploration Capital Partners 2006 Limited Partnership'.

[manxman]

When the final investment decision in Tui was made, P & P reserves were 28.7 million bbl.

On 30 June 2008 some 12 or 13 million barrells will have been recovered.

There will still be 28.7 million barrells left


Fanny Hillman - Memoirs of a Jewish Madam

You've got it - You sell it - You've still got it - Thats good business

NZO has got the best business model since the invention of prostitution

Mx

[digger]

Through accountant sent off my off market transfer this afternoon.Interesting to see when it gets recorded.
Also to note is that the off market inhouse transfer forms allow any value to be put on the transfer,regardless of where the IRD record them. I put mine in at cost and not current market value. Saying this as some of you may be looking at the average market value each day and given that this first dividend will have a transfer effect the average value will be skewed and of little real indication of true market activity for that day.

[QOH]

Digger wish you had put a cost like $1.40. Some people might have thought "wow I'd better get in quick, this share is really on the move now" :-)

[Anubis]

Are you quite sure about that? To me it looks like NZO has broken the 1.30 resistance and that has now turned to a support.

Technically, NZO is at a critical level now. Traders will be waiting to see if buyers support it solidly at $1.30. So far so good, but it's still a bit early to tell. Sellers are there above $1.30 because this is its all time high. If the sellers push it back down below $1.30, it will probably slip back to $1.20 before it bounces. If buyers succeed in exhausting the sellers and push it above $1.35, then it's in unchartered territory, and the sky's the limit!

Either way I don't think long-term holders have much to worry about right now. The bigger danger is that people are selling equities across the board to free up cash, which is creating a broader market volatility. Commodities are likely to hold their value (and increase) in the bigger picture because of ongoing supply constraints, but there will be short-term volatility in commodities also. Oil futures got sold off brutally in the US to $99 last night - but now heading back up again...

[Crypto Crude]

I was lucky to get hold of a copy of the 'Oil and Gas weekly'...
In this publication they have gone ballistic on NZO...
They must have been saving up their thoughts of NZO for years because NZO domintes this publication....
A source of mine described it as 'over the top'....
....
Good news for NZO...
The amazing thing about all of this is that Kupe is going to be bigger than Tui
...
Get the gang of zomibes together... where going on a brain munching spree.... yeah yeah, thats whats up....
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

that last line was for the 'brain dead'....
catch you all up soon...
:cool:
.^sc

[Toddy]

I was lucky to get hold of a copy of the 'Oil and Gas weekly'...
In this publication they have gone ballistic on NZO...
They must have been saving up their thoughts of NZO for years because NZO domintes this publication....
A source of mine described it as 'over the top'....
....
Good news for NZO...
The amazing thing about all of this is that Kupe is going to be bigger than Tui
...
Get the gang of zomibes together... where going on a brain munching spree.... yeah yeah, thats whats up....
:cool:
.^sc

I'm having a Macdunk moment. For the benefit of all of the brain dead out there this is a WARNING, get out NOW. The NZO SP will crash once Helen and Cullen work out that Tui, Pike and Kupe are Strategic New Zealand assets. Forcing AWE, the Indians etc to give their holdings up leaving NZO partnering the NZ Super Fund to finish and run all three projects.

Don't say you have not been warned.

[the machine]

jke, notice the new thread now has an updated name.

M

[jke_brown]

jke, notice the new thread now has an updated name.

M

I think the admin of this forum changed the thread name.

[Vince]

I think the admin of this forum changed the thread name.
Guys, changed title as rebuilding search index on site. Needed thread titles with coding & thread title was old.

Vince

[Viking]

Guys, changed title as rebuilding search index on site. Needed thread titles with coding & thread title was old.

Vince

Just splitting the hair here~
but wouldn't you like to change the title to - NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)
Since I noticed that other thread name had been changed in that format...
e.g. Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA) and the like for DPC, PPP, ABA...etc

[Vince]

Just splitting the hair here~
but wouldn't you like to change the title to - NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)
Since I noticed that other thread name had been changed in that format...
e.g. Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA) and the like for DPC, PPP, ABA...etc
Have changed it now as per your request.
Vince

[tim23]

Shrewd - are you able to post extracts from the Oil & Gas bulletin article?

[shasta]

I was lucky to get hold of a copy of the 'Oil and Gas weekly'...
In this publication they have gone ballistic on NZO...
They must have been saving up their thoughts of NZO for years because NZO domintes this publication....
A source of mine described it as 'over the top'....
....
Good news for NZO...
The amazing thing about all of this is that Kupe is going to be bigger than Tui
...
Get the gang of zomibes together... where going on a brain munching spree.... yeah yeah, thats whats up....
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewd

Kupe was always twice the original size of Tui (before the upgrade), on a BOE (Barrel of Oil equivalent).

This isn't new at all!

[Financially dependant]

Shrewd - are you able to post extracts from the Oil & Gas bulletin article?

Some one did it here..

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=630641&msgno=2618457#2618457

[AMR]

Go directly onto oilers.com.au, click on the sample newsletters, and look at March 2.

[digger]

Shrewd

Kupe was always twice the original size of Tui (before the upgrade), on a BOE (Barrel of Oil equivalent).

This isn't new at all!


Yes it is new.
New to 'Oil and Gas weekly' and a first that this old fact has finally surfaced beyond this forum.

[shasta]

Yes it is new.
New to 'Oil and Gas weekly' and a first that this old fact has finally surfaced beyond this forum.

I shall endeavour to find the source & post it.

[arjay]

Here are some relavent bits from AMR's directions:


Oil & Gas Weekly
2 March, 2008

Week’s Highlights
Some pleasing results not least those of Australian Worldwide Exploration
and New Zealand Oil and Gas who benefited from four and a half months of
production from Tui area oil field in the December half. The results indicated
just what a success this field has been. In just under seven months Tui has
produced nine million barrels of oil.
Tui has catapulted New Zealand Oil & Gas from another struggling junior to
a mid cap explorer and producer with results and reserves rivalling those of
Tap Oil and Arc Energy.

The market still hasn’t got the message how good Tui is and the impact it is
having on cash flows for AWE, NZO and PPP.
Pan Pacific will have its day in the Tui sun next week when it announces
Wednesday its December half results.

Tui oil field delivers for NZO.
New Zealand Oil & Gas December Half Results
On Wednesday NZO reported their interim half year results to December 31
sparking a significant breakout in the share price as the market begins to
realise what we have been saying for the past several months.
That this company (and PPP) has very significant cash flows from Tui. And
NZO has two further projects closing in on production at Pike River and
Kupe and its shares are fundamentally undervalued.
Our NZ correspondent participated in an analysts’ conference call after the
result was announced and had the following to say: “Wow, what a minter interim result from NZOG on Wednesday. And the 5
cents fully imputed dividend (for NZ shareholders) was a cruise missile that
landed a direct hit on its target – the NZ investing public and as I write this
the shares are now NZ$1.31.
By now you will be aware that they announced a NPAT of NZ$41m from
turnover of NZ$91m. This equated to 15.7cps earnings for the 6 months.
Some points from the conference call worth noting:
 The NZ$140m of tax losses reported in the 30 June 2007 accounts,
only NZ$85m of these are available for use in the 30 June 2008 tax
year. The $85m of losses are almost exhausted already and NZOG
will be paying provisional company tax in March, so the April
dividend will carry imputation credits accordingly.
 The 5cps dividend is not an interim dividend, more a dividend to
cover the whole financial year ending 30 June 07. The company
intends to pay a reasonable proportion of profits each year as a
dividend, but CEO David Salisbury (DS) said it was difficult to set a
hard and fast dividend policy when faced with so many changing
variables inherent to the oil business (ie. oil prices, capex
requirements, changes in production etc). Fair enough.

Momoho target yet to be
quantified.
when asked the potential size of the Momoho drill DS said the JV was
not yet agreed on these figures and they will announce them when
agreement is reached. Costs to drill Momoho looks to be around
NZ$10m.

DS was asked whether successful Kupe development drilling would
lead to a reserves upgrade and he replied that the analysis of such
drillings is complex and can take several months to process and
analyse. If such an upgrade was required, this information would not
be known until towards the end of 2008 at the earliest.
 DS advised that the Tui facility has continued to produce at 45,000
bopd and they had started to see some recent increase in water cut, but
not to the point where oil production was decreasing at this stage.
When asked to upgrade production figures to 30 June 2008, he stuck
to the JV line of 12 million barrels.
 DS noted very clearly that the company is completely fully funded
based on current cash flow forecasting (barring a problem at Tui) and
also with the debt facilities it has in place in all of its capex
commitments at Kupe and also its Pike River rights issue
participation. There is no need to raise additional capital. I would
suggest this goes without saying that if they are able to paying a large
dividend of 5cps, then they are fully funded.
 DS noted that although Kupe has been developed as a gas project, that
at current oil prices the liquids from the project currently represent
two thirds of the estimated revenue of the project.
 Also, when asked as to whether a discovery at Momoho has a market
for its output, David noted that the liquids would be sold as normal,
but any additional gas may be able to supply the gas to liquids plant
in Taranaki that Methanex had recently decided to bring out of
mothballs..
 Whilst not being an oil trader, he personally does not see the price of
oil dropping significantly in the near future and that current supply is
very stretched to meet existing demand.
 They do plan to drill further wells on their Taranaki licences in 2009,
subject to joint venture approval, appropriate targets being assessed
and rig availability. He noted that rig availability is a key issue in the
industry at present.
 When asked whether there are any further Kupe costs increases in the
pipeline, he stuck with the JV figures of 10% above the $980M
official JV figures as being the latest information.
 It sounds like there is a contingency number built in there somewhere
and it has been noted in the past most of these costs are denominated
in US$ and the weaker US$ would be assisting the sums in this
respect.
That all sounded good to me.
Certainly it resulted in some very good press in the Thursday morning NZ
papers and the results also featured on both main NZ news channels on
Wednesday night.
Also, Tui exports are positively influencing the NZ monthly trade figures and
these figures are released worldwide in most money markets I would imagine
and Tui gets a mention every time, month after month.


I have a personal opinion of what I think is in store for NZO in the medium
term. Readers must note that these are my views and it is up to them to form
their own opinion as mine could well be wrong.
We are all ‘big boys and girls’ so you have to make your own calls on this
(the last time I used ‘big’ and ‘girl’ in this particular expression in a
conversation with my girlfriend, she didn’t speak to me for a week, so be
careful who you apply this to):
 It certainly begs the question that if Tui has produced significantly
ahead of expectations and continues to do so, could this (or should
this) lead to another reserves upgrade?
 Having all seen the AED debacle at Puffin, I think the JV is being
very conservative in its production and reserves forecasts and perhaps
a de facto upgrade exists in there somewhere, but it is very unlikely
the JV will officially acknowledge that (and certainly I must
emphasise that NZOG is towing the JV line on this front, as they
should).
 Bear in mind none of us are reservoir engineers, so we are guessing,
but I know which way I am leaning. It could simply be a case that a
higher percentage of the oil in place is recoverable than first thought. I
fully understand the JV’s desire not to spruik the market in this
respect. We have to make our own judgements on this. They may
never give such an upgrade (if indeed it is required at all), but the cash
outcome of this could well end up sitting in their bank accounts
eventually.
 Similarly, if the Kupe development drilling goes according to plan
and the current assessed reserves are confirmed, then the de-risking of
the development would be worthy of a higher share price.
Furthermore, given that Origin is leading this project and given the
debacle at BassGas that they were associated with, does it further beg
the question that these reserves may themselves also be on the
conservative side? It is probably foolish to extrapolate the Tui
experience across to a different project at Kupe, but if the
development drilling there is successful, I suspect this may also give
potential for a reserves upgrade down the track somewhere.
 Bear in mind the Momoho prospect is only 5km from the Kupe
platform and in the offshore oil business that is no more than a walk
down to the shops. We need to be very cognisant of the fact that if
Momoho discovers the same gassy liquids in commercial quantities,
then having already spent the capex at the Kupe facilities both on and
offshore, the minimal additional cost to produce a discovery like this
could be very significant to the economics of the whole Kupe project.
 For a $10M risk, the return to NZOG of a decent size success at
Momoho could be many many multiples of the cost to drill this well. I
would call this a “wildcat with nearby infrastructure” rather than just a
straight wildcat. I do not think the market has grasped the significance
of this yet.We all seem to be dancing in the streets with the success of
Tui. This is however overshadowing the point that Kupe looks like it
will be at least as big as Tui, if not bigger.
6
 So really NZOG has two groundbreaking projects and only one of
them is up and running at present, yet on its own has delivered a
stellar result.
 We need to really think what this could do to the company results
when (an albeit reduced) Tui revenue and new Kupe revenue is
produced in the same year. Just close your eyes for a minute and think
about that.
 The coal price assumption used in the Pike River Coal prospectus was
US$95 a tonne. There are reports in the press that this figure could
well be set at US$150 a tonne for the current contract year starting 1
April. Notwithstanding an increase in the number of PRC shares on
issue as a result of the current rights issue, an increase in your main
revenue variable from $95 to $150 can only lead to a significant
increase in earnings.
 Bear in mind PRC is a one project company and I cannot personally
myself see it expanding into anything else, so once it is on top of it
debt obligations, then that would have to be a pretty chunky dividend
flow that its shareholders would be getting and NZO owns 31% of this
company.
Disclosure of interest: I am both a NZOG and PPP ordinary shareholder.
Making a million dollars.
Our Quest to Make a Million Dollars
Our goal is to take a specific sum of money and double it a number of times
to make $1 million before tax. $10,000 doubled eight times will do the trick.
A $20,000 initial investment needs to be doubled seven times, a $40,000
investment six times.
We have three Portfolios in the program.
Our initial Portfolio A investment was 150,000 New Zealand Oil & Gas
Options (NZOO) purchased at 7 cents. We bought a further 200,000 NZOO at
4.4 cents when the market bombed adding 200,000 options and an additional
$8,800 to our original investment to bring our initial outlay to $19,300.
With NZOO closing at 5.9 cents on Friday our investment was worth
$20,650 now up $1,350 on our combined total stake. The volatility in New
Zealand Oil & Gas options is just something one has to contend with, when
you believe as we do that eventually the underlying value in the head shares
will be appreciated. Just has to happen before 30 June next!
Our Portfolio B investment was 500,000 Pancontinental shares (PCL) at 4.2
for an original stake of $21,000. PCL shares closed at 2.8 cents on Friday
making our stake now worth $14,000.
So we are now well off the pace with this choice. PCL is now at a four and a
half year low. What is concern to us is that the market may be getting the
message Origin will not take up its drilling commitment in PCL’s offshore
Kenya leases.
Our Portfolio C investment was 40,000 NZO head shares at $1.02. They
closed Friday at $1.14 so we are making some head way here with hopefully
a lot more to come. as the market starts to re-rate this overlooked NZ oiler.
7



Development well drilling at the Kupe Gas project in PML 38146 offshore
Taranaki Basin is at the business end.
Operator Origin Energy is batch drilling the last sections of the three
development wells.
The first of the those wells intersected the primary reservoir (Farewell
Formation – what an unfortunate name!) late last week and was preparing to
drill ahead to total depth after completing coring operations.

Now if the JV has its wits about it it will announce good gas and oil flows as
each wells progresses to target depth. The great unwashed in punter land
can’t tell the difference between an offshore oil/gas development well, a rank
wildcat and coal seam gas core hole. To them if a well flows oil and/or gas it
has got to be good.
So if New Zealand Oil & Gas, with its 15% interest in Kupe, wants to get its
share price up to a level that truly reflects its fundamental value, making sure
it extracts the maximum value out of the three Kupe development wells
should do it. And the sooner it gets its price up the less attractive it becomes
to a would be predator.
New Zealand Oil & Gas discovered the Kupe field way back in 1986 with
the drilling of the Kupe South #1 wildcat which flowed 2,000 barrels of light
oil a day and 5.4 million cubic feet of gas a day.
Kupe South #2 and Kupe South #3 and #3A ST followed in 1987 and 1988
respectively. Both encountered a stratified hydrocarbon reservoir with a
significant oil column underlying a thick natural gas column. These three
wells form the basis for the current Kupe Central Field area development.
But there’s more. Kupe South #4 and Kupe South #5 both wildcats, were
drilled on separate prospects adjacent to the Central Field Area and both were
either oil and or gas discoveries. Toru #1 well was drilled 10 kms to the north
of the Kupe CFA and it too was a gas discovery.
Now the JV will drill Momoho #1 an exploration (wildcat) well testing an
overlooked structure in what we understand to close proximity to the Kupe
Central Field Area. Got to deliver one would think in the light of what has
gone before. Then there are two other prospects also adjacent to the CFA to
test, Denby and Leith. And several more mapped prospects on the permit yet
to be named.
Low oil and gas prices and the huge Maui gas field near to Kupe delayed the
development of the Kupe field. But that situation has now changed
dramatically. Maui is in decline. Kupe is in the ascendant. Gas prices in New
Zealand are on the rise and the oil price is breaking new records.
If you think Tui is a big money spinner for NZO and it certainly is, Kupe is
even bigger. Currently 2P reserves are 250 Bcf of gas and 14.7 million barrels
of light oil/condensate and 1.1 million tonnes of LPG. We won’t be at all
surprised if it turns out to be much larger than that even without more
discoveries. And more discoveries looked very likely.
We are dealing with some very cautious, conservative companies that don’t
want to get burned making exaggerated reserves claims that they can’t
subsequently justify.
To us the offshore Taranaki Basin has all the signs of being the next Bass
Strait. First Kupe production just over twelve months away.

[BigBob]

Great read....!!! my glasses have got even more nzo-tinted... but that hides my blue eyes... ;o)

[bermuda]

Technically, NZO is at a critical level now. Traders will be waiting to see if buyers support it solidly at $1.30. So far so good, but it's still a bit early to tell. Sellers are there above $1.30 because this is its all time high. If the sellers push it back down below $1.30, it will probably slip back to $1.20 before it bounces. If buyers succeed in exhausting the sellers and push it above $1.35, then it's in unchartered territory, and the sky's the limit!

Either way I don't think long-term holders have much to worry about right now. The bigger danger is that people are selling equities across the board to free up cash, which is creating a broader market volatility. Commodities are likely to hold their value (and increase) in the bigger picture because of ongoing supply constraints, but there will be short-term volatility in commodities also. Oil futures got sold off brutally in the US to $99 last night - but now heading back up again...

I can just smell the uranium in your breath! This stock is heading towards $2 but in the meantime the Tall Poppy Syndrome may cut the stalks off.

NZO will shortly mow the tall poppies out of the way.

[bermuda]

I was lucky to get hold of a copy of the 'Oil and Gas weekly'...
In this publication they have gone ballistic on NZO...
They must have been saving up their thoughts of NZO for years because NZO domintes this publication....
A source of mine described it as 'over the top'....
....
Good news for NZO...
The amazing thing about all of this is that Kupe is going to be bigger than Tui
...
Get the gang of zomibes together... where going on a brain munching spree.... yeah yeah, thats whats up....
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy.'
Always knew kupe was BIG for NZO. Two thirds of the revenues are the liquids! Oil is going higher.

[remy]

ouch down 4 today, any reason for this or just following all the overseas markets?

[COLIN]

ouch down 4 today, any reason for this or just following all the overseas markets?

Merely fulfilling the prophecy of our Egyptian friend, Anubis.
Remember also that he predicts a drop now to $1-20 before a bounce back. Seems another buying opportunity coming up.

[digger]

ouch down 4 today, any reason for this or just following all the overseas markets?

Again remember some of the supposed trading will not be real until 4th April which if i remember correctly is the x date for the coming dividend. See my transfer has not come through but at cost will have a artificial damping effect.My suggestion is that inhouse transfer should not be lumped with normal trades. I also believe many relatively small holdings will be moved across inside families and these to will depend on value set at the time.
See oil hit 104
What happened to the KUPE drill update? That has been coming each wed up till now.

[sideline]

Again remember some of the supposed trading will not be real until 4th April which if i remember correctly is the x date for the coming dividend. See my transfer has not come through but at cost will have a artificial damping effect.My suggestion is that inhouse transfer should not be lumped with normal trades. I also believe many relatively small holdings will be moved across inside families and these to will depend on value set at the time.
See oil hit 104
What happened to the KUPE drill update? That has been coming each wed up till now.


Last Kupe update was dated 28-feb, Thursday.

Crude oil for April delivery rose $4.89, or 4.9 percent, to $104.41 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $104.64 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 74 percent from a year ago.

[rotweiller]

First NZ Capital have today upgraded the target price from $1:50 to $1.80 for NOG and $1:55 from $1.23 for Pike.
These are 12 month targets.
Keep them coming.
Cheers

[sideline]

an interesting snippet I picked up on Forbes.com

.............
Twenty-five years ago, the energy sector reached 25% of S&P 500 valuation. At its low it was 6%,
now 11%. If oil surges back to 25% of the index, it will happen in the next couple of years.
.............

[bermuda]

Shrewdy.'
Always knew kupe was BIG for NZO. Two thirds of the revenues are the liquids! Oil is going higher.

Shrewdy,
The statistics of the oil industry are a shambles. But one thing is sure. Oil is going higher.
Today's jump was quite significant. Kupe will be BIG for NZO.

[Financially dependant]

Nice bounce this morning and Kupe annoucement with "encountered a hydrocarbon column in the Farewell Formation".

All bodes well!

[COLIN]

Lets leave the oil where it is, for a few years! What better investment on today's market!

[Sehnsucht888]

Again remember some of the supposed trading will not be real until 4th April which if i remember correctly is the x date for the coming dividend. See my transfer has not come through but at cost will have a artificial damping effect.My suggestion is that inhouse transfer should not be lumped with normal trades. I also believe many relatively small holdings will be moved across inside families and these to will depend on value set at the time.
See oil hit 104
What happened to the KUPE drill update? That has been coming each wed up till now.

Hi Digger. I didn't think those kind of transfers did actually effect the VWAP or any other price. I'm also surprised your accountant is letting you do it at cost. I have previously transfered shares off market, (admitedly in Aus), but the general rule is to do this at the market price at the time of transfer, and talking to the Public Trust in NZ a while ago, they indiciated, (if memory serves correctly), that this needs to be at the market price, otherwise it can be seen as a kind of a dodge around the treatment of asset values. Although that might have been in relation to transfers to a trust, and not a company - although whether that is technically that different I don't know.

Was this more clear cut for you?

Cheers

[zorba]

.
Oil price looking good ......

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/48

Go Oilers !!!!

[Anubis]

First NZ Capital have today upgraded the target price from $1:50 to $1.80 for NOG and $1:55 from $1.23 for Pike.
These are 12 month targets.
Keep them coming.
Cheers

Great to hear about that upgrade!

To explain my previous post, I look at three things to understand share price movements:

Fundamentals
Broader (global) market influences
Technicals

Fundamentals will determine the long term share price movement. Fundamentally I agree with Bermuda (and First NZ) - NZO has the legs to go to $2.00 in the long run. Both NZO and oil are fundamentally undervalued. Matt Simmon's 'Twilight in the Desert' is a difficult read because it's quite technical, but everyone interested in oil should read it!

Current global money markets are currently extremely volatile (look at the daily/weekly moves in the Dow, oil, etc...). This will continue to add extra volatility to individual share prices for the foreseeable future, so... NZO will bounce up and down responding in some measure to these global factors.

Technically, the support/resistance at $1.30 is currently in play. Day-to-day share price movements are partly pushed around by traders who use technical analysis to make their decisions, so we will see these patterns forming in the short term. They shouldn't concern long term holders. Below $1.30 will be temporary weakness and there will be a tendency to drift back toward $1.20. Above $1.30 is strength and will lead to a retest of the $1.35 high and, finally, a break upwards!

Digger - I'm not sure if you should expect to see your off-market share transfer reported on the market. A few years ago I transferred a whole lot of NOGOCs between companies off market, and it never showed up. I don't know how the reporting of these kinds of transactions works...

[peterfindlay]

Hi Digger. I didn't think those kind of transfers did actually effect the VWAP or any other price. I'm also surprised your accountant is letting you do it at cost. I have previously transfered shares off market, (admitedly in Aus), but the general rule is to do this at the market price at the time of transfer, and talking to the Public Trust in NZ a while ago, they indiciated, (if memory serves correctly), that this needs to be at the market price, otherwise it can be seen as a kind of a dodge around the treatment of asset values. Although that might have been in relation to transfers to a trust, and not a company - although whether that is technically that different I don't know.

Was this more clear cut for you?

Cheers

Yes you are correct. Unless there is a genuine reason for the transfers to be at cost (e.g. to rectify a mistake), in the eyes of the Inland Revenue Department, using cost rather market value could attract gift duty.

[shasta]

Yes you are correct. Unless there is a genuine reason for the transfers to be at cost (e.g. to rectify a mistake), in the eyes of the Inland Revenue Department, using cost rather market value could attract gift duty.

Unless Digger's clever accountant is using a "sliding cause".*

I thought the reported market figures (VWAP etc) were purely based from on-market transactions?

* I'll leave this for others to look up. :cool:

In the past, transfers of assets were made at the "lower" of cost or market value, but those rules have all changed.

[Lion]

Tapis over $108. Woohoo!!

[tim23]

First NZ Capital upgrade - are they one of the few main stream brokers who cover the stock? I get weekly updates from Forbar but NOG never gets a mention!

[digger]

Yes you are correct. Unless there is a genuine reason for the transfers to be at cost (e.g. to rectify a mistake), in the eyes of the Inland Revenue Department, using cost rather market value could attract gift duty.

My accountant only witnessed our signatures in the transfer. There was no discussion of what value to entre for IRD. The transfer form says any value will do including nil.I do not see any conection between that and the IRD. In fact it would be in my interest to transfer all at market value,it was only done as the cost value is what i am carring forward.But thanks all and will ask about values at final year end.Probably use market value as it is seeming to be clearer with no indication of trying to mislead anyone.

[the machine]

headlines of energy review.net

First Kupe development well confirms hydrocarbons

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Thursday, 6 March 2008

THE first of three development wells has penetrated the producing reservoir at the Kupe gas-condensate field, offshore Taranaki, New Zealand. Coring has confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons, according to minority partner New Zealand Oil & Gas.
unquote


hopefully nzo will fully exploit all this good news.

imagine nz$1.50 by May 1st, inturn the oc's would drive the shareprice.

M

[zorba]

.
Oil price passed US$105 ealier today:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/48
.

[arjay]

headlines of energy review.net

First Kupe development well confirms hydrocarbons

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Thursday, 6 March 2008

THE first of three development wells has penetrated the producing reservoir at the Kupe gas-condensate field, offshore Taranaki, New Zealand. Coring has confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons, according to minority partner New Zealand Oil & Gas.
unquote


hopefully nzo will fully exploit all this good news.

imagine nz$1.50 by May 1st, inturn the oc's would drive the shareprice.

M


After 22 years of appraisal and analysis at Kupe it would be hugely embarrassing not to have detected hydrocarbons. Let's hope they're still there in commercial amounts.

[sideline]

WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 105.420 +$0.900

[zorba]

After 22 years of appraisal and analysis at Kupe it would be hugely embarrassing not to have detected hydrocarbons. Let's hope they're still there in commercial amounts.



Arjay, agree with you on that .......

But the gas has been accumulating at Kupe for more than 20 million years so a bit of gap of 20 years since discovery shouldnt be too much to ask of those dear little gas molecules to hang around for a little bit longer.

[digger]

WTI averaged more than 105 today. For me that is a special number because it is a multiple of 35. When oil first passed 40 not that long ago the experts were reassuring the markets that it would soon fall back to 20 or even 15 and thereafter behave itself. I made my first predictions on the internet that it would never again be below 35. It got to 35-60 and then went north. A year later the same thing happen at 70. I got 70 wrong for a day and a half and again the experts who thought it was going back to the 30er were badly wrong. Well it has now cracked the third multiple of 35. At this stage it is too early to say 105 is the bottom but even that is rappidly coming.


Can you believe it? Some half wit in the American elected setup want to pass a bill preventing the US from adding to the strategic reserves until oil is below 50. Just a comment to highlight how out of step some peoples thinking can be.

[shasta]

WTI averaged more than 105 today. For me that is a special number because it is a multiple of 35. When oil first passed 40 not that long ago the experts were reassuring the markets that it would soon fall back to 20 or even 15 and thereafter behave itself. I made my first predictions on the internet that it would never again be below 35. It got to 35-60 and then went north. A year later the same thing happen at 70. I got 70 wrong for a day and a half and again the experts who thought it was going back to the 30er were badly wrong. Well it has now cracked the third multiple of 35. At this stage it is too early to say 105 is the bottom but even that is rappidly coming.


Can you believe it? Some half wit in the American elected setup want to pass a bill preventing the US from adding to the strategic reserves until oil is below 50. Just a comment to highlight how out of step some peoples thinking can be.

Digger

Not quite in keeping with your $35 multiples, but just today i read an overseas article suggesting $US90 was the "new" floor...

All good to me!

[tim23]

I liked when the MD said during a recent interview - while we have been talking we have made quite a lot of money - anyone else pick that up?

[Nitaa]

That is why the big MD is bitter. Buy high sell low was his outcome with NZO.

Oil continues to go crazy up over $106. Although great for nzo short term i wish these commodity prices would slow down. The rise is too rapid to sustain and the global economy will suffer and bammm inflation will be like in the 70's but maybe not as high.

A bubble is forming and imo this will be the bubbles of all bubbles. Opec wants to cut production, demand for commodities are off the charts and there is plenty of height for the price of oil and other commodities to go. Something will give but maybe not just this year.

NZO.. hold on to your hats my remaining oppies are looking better and better.

[tim23]

Good article in latest Headliner - gee the numbers are so compelling $6 gross per second!

[tim23]

Malcolm - how do you figure that?

If say the share price was $2 at the time and the options were exercised then the share price might fall back to about $1.83 based on treating it like a 1:2 rights issue @ $1.50.

[digger]

Malcolm - how do you figure that?

If say the share price was $2 at the time and the options were exercised then the share price might fall back to about $1.83 based on treating it like a 1:2 rights issue @ $1.50.

What happens after a option exercise all depends on where the world is at the time with respect to the company and what it is representing. Take PRC the new shares can be bought at 90 cents but with the coal price going higher and higher it did not dilute the origional head as long as the shareholder took part in the cash issue. If NZOOD is exercised the effect will be no dilusion as long as you take your precentage part.The additional income would put the company in a better position to explore[many coming up]and thereby build the company. I only see true dilusion if the exploration is unsuccessful or if the monies get diverted off as Blue Chips did to a big whorrie screwup.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Malcolm - how do you figure that?

If say the share price was $2 at the time and the options were exercised then the share price might fall back to about $1.83 based on treating it like a 1:2 rights issue @ $1.50.

Wouldn't the share price effectively fall back (or rather face a hurdle) at the $1.50 point - once it is over $1.50 people pretty much know that the options, or most of them, are likely to be exercised. So at the time that the share price clears $1.50 I would have thought that the options being exercised would by then be pretty much factored in. In fact there may be an element of factoring in during the lead up to $1.50, depending on how near that was to 30th June ...

[tim23]

I figured the cash raised but 50% more shares on issue - I just couldn't see the sub $1 scenario from Malcolm?

[Nitaa]

Wouldn't the share price effectively fall back (or rather face a hurdle) at the $1.50 point - once it is over $1.50 people pretty much know that the options, or most of them, are likely to be exercised. So at the time that the share price clears $1.50 I would have thought that the options being exercised would by then be pretty much factored in. In fact there may be an element of factoring in during the lead up to $1.50, depending on how near that was to 30th June ...
You raise an interesting point. I think what would normall happen is increased volatilty around excercise price IF the options are in the money. You are correct that the market does factor in the possibility of option conversion. Normally you will have additional resistance of sp appreciation and NZO look like to beno acception in the next few months. The main factors are;
Most investors need to find extra capital for conversion (if in the money)
Many wil sell options at a discount because they dont want or cannot fund the conversion
Many who hold the heads will also sell their nzo shares to fund the conversion.

Those are the main resistance of sp appreciation leading up to the conversion especially if the sp is somewhere in the ball park of $1.50

Offsetting that there needs to be better than expected news to counter the weight of selling pressure that will come into force. Again this is only relevant if the options have a realistic chance of being in the money. Its also clear that nzo are notr giving up on getting the options over the line. The PR machine is kicking in, nzo is constantly in the media. Things are looking really positive.

On another positve side, the the bigger players can buy a significant amount of options to acquire heads at $1.50. It may only require less than 5% of turnover to push the sp to $1.50 therefore opportunities exist to buy heads at significant volume without pushing up the sp though purchasing heads only.

If the sp is over $1.40 in the last 2 months expect BIG volume of options to trade.

Many variables left which i havent even scratched the surface. Aside from many other factors I am expecting times ahead and will be watching with interest.

[trackers]

Pretty happy holder of the ood's at the moment.... Article doing the rounds:



New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil
Goldman's projections foretell persistent turbulence in energy prices






NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption."

Goldman on Friday also boosted by $10 the low end of its 2008-2012 projected range for crude to $60 a barrel -- significantly lower than current prices, to be sure, but a possible mark for oil if "normalized" trends return to the marketplace.
With the dollar's fall continuing and financial markets roiled by the credit crunch, commodities like oil have been drawing the fancy of increasing numbers of investors. Accordingly, Wall Street firms have been eager to adjust forecasts to incorporate fresh data on the global economy and energy supplies.
Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its "super-spike" oil theory.
"We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."
Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher.
"As the lack of supply growth and price-insulated non-OECD demand suggest a future rebound in U.S. gross domestic product growth or a major oil supply disruption could lead to $150-$200 a barrel oil prices," Goldman said.
While saying it has a bullish long-term outlook, Goldman acknowledged that oil prices could correct from recent highs.
Favorite picks among energy stocks include Frontier Oil and Gazprom overseas.
Goldman also reiterated its view that oil prices could fall as normal market conditions return over the next four years.
"The core of our 'super-spike' view is that oil prices will keep rising until demand declines globally on a multiyear basis, resulting in the return of excess capacity and a lower cost structure," Goldman's analysts said. "Given this view, once excess capacity returns, we think prices can move sharply lower."
The analysts reiterated their "attractive" view on the European energy sector, but kept a neutral view on the Russian sector due to costs. It upgraded Transneft and Sibir Energy to neutral from sell after underperformance, and cut Imperial Energy to sell from neutral on capital-spending requirements. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif
Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York. MarketWatch London bureau chief Steve Goldstein contributed to this report.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/goldman-sachs-raises-possibility-200/story.aspx?guid=%7B4B702F7F-41F8-45F0-A133-630F12F2C764%7D

[Chippie]

The more I think about it the more I think that PPP is a good take over target for NZO.

As both companies appear undervalued on fundamentals then I would think that NZO may be able to pick up PPP for the value of current TUI reserves only (35cents per share?).

If NZO are confident about Tui reserve upgrades (with inside information) then this would justify the investment by itself.

The additional exploration permits and Maitland come for free.

The upside for PPP holders is they get competent Executive management and exposure to Pike and Kupe

A very easy to way to fund this would be to offer NZO shares (at a fair ratio) and a 15 cent cash offer for each share.

Apart from that I do not know what acquisitions are available now that Swift assets have been sold to Contact.

[Chippie]

I also wondered if there are tax advantages to PPP shareholders if PPP becomes a NZ based company since an Australian based company cannot distribute NZ imputation credits to its shareholders?

[Nitaa]

The more I think about it the more I think that PPP is a good take over target for NZO.

As both companies appear undervalued on fundamentals then I would think that NZO may be able to pick up PPP for the value of current TUI reserves only (35cents per share?).

If NZO are confident about Tui reserve upgrades (with inside information) then this would justify the investment by itself.

The additional exploration permits and Maitland come for free.

The upside for PPP holders is they get competent Executive management and exposure to Pike and Kupe

A very easy to way to fund this would be to offer NZO shares (at a fair ratio) and a 15 cent cash offer for each share.

Apart from that I do not know what acquisitions are available now that Swift assets have been sold to Contact.There was speculation that this may be on the cards but nzo sold their shares last year which to me put an end of that theory

[the machine]

nzo should get a lot of pr next week with the petroleum conference in auckland, then come march 20 should have reached the 10m barrels for tui.

coupled with kupe gas logs from K6 then nzo might crack the nz$1.50 by end of march.

M

[duncan macgregor]

Good Replies I Wanted A Dicussion And Got It . Global Market Will Dictate Nog Sp In Next Few Weeks Not Local News As Majority Of Nog Share Holders Are Mum,dad, Dadsaunty, Sonsmate,mumsaunty,etc.etc .. (they Should Be $2.00 Now):d Malcolm my old mate you described the shareholder types better than i ever could. Mums Aunty would have to be NITA. Sons mate would describe the blue eyed brigade, and dads aunty could be some of my heel nippers. Back for two days couldnt resist adding a few words of wisdom to balance the garbage about peak oil or the price of oil measured in a tanking American dollar. Beware guys the market in general is going to take some big hits this year, its not the place to have your savings.
In the NZX share competitions only 13 out of 125 entries are in the black.
In the ASX competition only 5 out of 147 entries are in the black.
Last year i was leading the ASX competition with my nickel stocks about this time, this year i sit with my money in the bank watching the markets tank.
Anyone that thinks a company is above the market sentiment is due for a shock. 2008 will be a very bad year in general leading up to a major crash. The dopes that spread their investments accross the board like eagle sh*t over the countryside must be down about 20% at least this year. NZO should hold its price but pass the parcel will not be much fun. Look out for a bad day today guys 8.5% in the bank is a winner saving up to buy the road kill next year. Macdunk

[777]

The North Sea of the south
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Monday, 10 March 2008

New Zealand may be the southern hemisphere's answer to North Sea oil, according to a leading geophysicist, with the potential for finding billions more barrels of oil off the coast.
The New Zealand Petroleum conference kicks off in Auckland today, a few days after world oil prices hit a high of US$106 a barrel.
The Kiwi exploration sector is also buzzing over the better-than-expected offshore Taranaki Tui oilfield, which is producing about 45,000 barrels a day. About 2 billion barrels have been discovered.
But GNS exploration geophysicist Chris Uruski says many more billions of barrels may yet be found off New Zealand's coast, possibly in water as deep as 2000 metres.
Big sedimentary basins Deepwater Taranaki and the new frontier area of the Raukumara Basin off the East Cape may yield oil, while the Great South Basin off the bottom of the South Island is already being explored.
The high price of oil should have a positive effect on exploration, which so far had barely scratched the surface in New Zealand, Mr Uruski said.
A survey of Deepwater Taranaki showed three large prospects that could each hold up to 1 billion barrels of oil, though the prospects were well offshore and therefore expensive to explore. "One [the Romney structure] could hold 3 billion barrels.
The potential is quite large, but realising that potential is another matter."
Romney is about 120 kilometres offshore in deep water, though even at 2000m drilling is possible.
It would take a company with courage and deep pockets to explore Deepwater Taranaki but if a big player arrived, it could trigger a new wave of exploration, Mr Uruski said. Players were already sniffing about Deepwater Taranaki.
Mr Uruski said that early seismic work on the Raukumara basin suggested that area could also hold billions of barrels of oil.
About 10,000 sq km of the region held source rock, which could be expelling oil, with a potential capacity of about five million barrels for each square kilometre.
"There could be about 50 billion barrels," Mr Uruski said.
American oil giant Exxon Mobil and Austria's OMV are already exploring the Great South Basin, with a decision on drilling expected in 2010.
However, any development could be a decade away, according to the Petroleum Exploration and Production Association
The consortia will implement analysis and drilling estimated at $1.2 billion in the next five years.
With shares in the Maui and Pohokura gas fields, OMV is already a player in New Zealand. OMV has a 69 per cent stake in the offshore Taranaki field Maari, which is due to yield its first oil later this year and could contain as much as 50 million barrels of oil.
In a few months, the Government will offer blocks of onshore Taranaki land for exploration, and New Zealand Oil & Gas has already indicated it may bid for some.
Australian firms such as Origin Energy and AWE are exploring here, as are locally listed NZOG, Austral Pacific and Pan Pacific.

[arjay]

The North Sea of the south
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Monday, 10 March 2008

The Kiwi exploration sector is also buzzing over the better-than-expected offshore Taranaki Tui oilfield, which is producing about 45,000 barrels a day. About 2 billion barrels have been discovered.

.


42 million barrels up to 2 billion barrels - that'sd quite an upgrade!

[Nitaa]

Duncan. you were expecting a hughe hit today. Nope... i just checked the sp and so far today there is no change

[Mick100]

. Back for two days couldnt resist adding a few words of wisdom to balance the garbage about peak oil

Why don't you take a year off from posting on this site macdump

Or are you going to ensure that no one ever forgets what an obnoxious fool you are

PS , bought another crude contract the other day
got crude covered out to dec 2011 - peak oil - bring it on

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan. you were expecting a hughe hit today. Nope... i just checked the sp and so far today there is no change You are quite wrong NITA i was expecting a little hit today which is happening right now. It all depends on the overseas markets in what they get up to, we only play follow the leader.
NZO are still trying to reach its peak from years ago even with all the good news out, you are still playing catch up. Any huge hits in our market comes after overseas markets take a tumble. 2008 will descend into a very bad year the brain dead hold at any price will find out as the year progresses. NZO are in a good position in a very bad market how it ends up is anyones guess.
Its good to see my mate MICK100 following me about name calling like a primary school kid simply because i have a different opinion, grow up MICK you must be losing heaps right now. I expect the big hit to happen at the end of this year so good luck all i will be back to pick up the road kill. The pass the parcel event wont be much fun but who knows in this market. Macdunk

[dsurf]

MacDunk - I would have thought an expert investor like yourself would be utilising a CFD account and be short all the large stocks on the market including NZO. Time is money - you are suffering huge opportunity cost by having your money in the bank!!!

[Mick100]

, grow up MICK you must be losing heaps right now.

sorry to dissapoint you macklunk - I'm actually up for the year so far

As dsurf points out, there are other strategies that can be used other than being long equities

Along with my share investments account,
I run a commodities account - up 140% this year (10 weeks);)

Your so fond of charts macflunk, why don't you have a look at the charts of crude, gold, silver, corn, sugar etc

Anyway, I'm glad (particuarly for your wife's peace of mind) that you have realised that you were out of your depth in the markets - maybe fishing will bring you better luck.:D

[Nitaa]

You are quite wrong NITA i was expecting a little hit today which is happening right now. It all depends on the overseas markets in what they get up to, we only play follow the leader.
NZO are still trying to reach its peak from years ago even with all the good news out, you are still playing catch up. Any huge hits in our market comes after overseas markets take a tumble. 2008 will descend into a very bad year the brain dead hold at any price will find out as the year progresses. NZO are in a good position in a very bad market how it ends up is anyones guess.
Its good to see my mate MICK100 following me about name calling like a primary school kid simply because i have a different opinion, grow up MICK you must be losing heaps right now. I expect the big hit to happen at the end of this year so good luck all i will be back to pick up the road kill. The pass the parcel event wont be much fun but who knows in this market. Macdunk
basically no impact today my dear friends.

ps. I am happy to pass the parcel at 10 cps for today only. Its only on sale today and i am sorry to inform you that the price for my options are going up should you wish to change your mind.

[tim23]

Duncan - shame on you for not knowing how NOG will end up; doesn't your chart tell you how the share is going to perform??

[duncan macgregor]

MacDunk - I would have thought an expert investor like yourself would be utilising a CFD account and be short all the large stocks on the market including NZO. Time is money - you are suffering huge opportunity cost by having your money in the bank!!! I dont have time to play the markets, pretty busy right now on a project out of town. I anticipate the big crash is coming, plenty of roadkill to pick up later on half way into 2009. I dont see any point investing for the sake of investing. Macdunk

[tim23]

Not too busy to not keep away from this site! I guess it is addictive!

[Mick100]

I dont have time to play the markets, pretty busy right now on a project out of town.

But it was only 2 or 3 months ago that you were making a lot of noise about being a fool-time trader macdump - what's happened mate?

[airedale]

Poor Dunc, still hanging out on NOG corner:rolleyes:

[Oiler]

Poor Dunc, still hanging out on NOG corner:rolleyes:
I agree Airedale......... there seem to be a few vicious attackers of the Dunc.
I am going to throw out a challenge.....all you MacDunk haters ( you know who you are :eek:) Come to the next Auckland get together and challenge the man in person!!!!
Maybe he is purposely trying to wind you all up? but that doesnt need a vicious attack back
Come meet the man in person in April..... you may be surprised when you meet the ole bugger :D His bark is worse than his bite......
Next Auckland meetin will be in early April
Oiler
wait for it.......... not one of his hench man !!!!

[duncan macgregor]

I agree Airedale......... there seem to be a few vicious attackers of the Dunc.
I am going to throw out a challenge.....all you MacDunk haters ( you know who you are :eek:) Come to the next Auckland get together and challenge the man in person!!!!
Maybe he is purposely trying to wind you all up? but that doesnt need a vicious attack back
Come meet the man in person in April..... you may be surprised when you meet the ole bugger :D His bark is worse than his bite......
Next Auckland meetin will be in early April
Oiler
wait for it.......... not one of his hench man !!!!I am not sure if they are old enough to get in oiler going by the childish abuse. It would be nice to see the whites of their eyes, but i expect the brain dead to remain in hiding. I will make every effort to be there, look forward to seeing if they are as spineless and childish in real life. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan Macgregor

also known as

Duncan
Dunc
MacDunk
Maca

and...

Macpump
MacDump
MacDuck
Macdumb

and today...:D

MacKlunk
MacPunk
Macplunk


any more I missed?, you are certainly well liked Maca Reminds me of primary school they used to say dungcan make your garden grow. Simple minds are easily amused it only shows the quality of mind that attacks you. I am looking forward to meeting some of the simpletons its going to be fun. Macdunk

[arjay]

McDunk is correct in that we seem to be seeing a major correction occurring. Whether a crash occurs down the track is anyone's guess. However, NZO seems largely immune - the way the market is behaving all NZO has to do is to keep treading water like it's been doing lately and it will rise into the NZX10 as others drop around it.

[tim23]

Gee even I can see its a correction!

[shane_m]

What required now is shovel to pick road kill… :D

[tim23]

And an optician to assist the blue eyed brigade and a surgeon to help the brain dead!

[zorba]

.
Grumpy McKlunk
Please do a bunk
Please exit da board
B'off to sea with a sword
And catch a fishy hoard
To make up da dough
You've tossed overboard
What a way to go !!!!

[Nitaa]

Isnt it great. Without md this thread would be dead already just like the brain dead.

I was thinking about the 1990's where people won and lost on the .com. Now i see md fitting into that category over the last couple of years with his 50 baggers and some of his other investments. Therefore, i would like like to propose some names for the man who made something out of nothing.

.macdunk
dot macdunk
Hot Dot Macdunk (after a famous golf ball brand)
Dotty Macdunk (my first choice)
.com macdunk
.md
Guess what Dotty. I am back in town for a short while in middle of April.
I suggest we have a night out on the town, eg dinner, drinks, drive etc or catch up at a sharetraders meeting .

How about we go to MacDonalds for a bite to eat before we go to the pub and have a few ales (of course Macs Gold). After of which if your not too drunk to drive we can hop in your Big Mac back to old Macdonalds farm. Then we can get down to some serious stuff like looking at your Mac charts to plot out the next lot of mac winners.

Seriously though big guy, this thread would be dead boring without you. keep up your posts so can contiune the fun.

[Nitaa]

Isnt it great. Without md this thread would be dead already just like the brain dead.

I was thinking about the 1990's where people won and lost on the .com. Now i see md fitting into that category over the last couple of years with his 50 baggers and some of his other investments. Therefore, i would like like to propose some names for the man who made something out of nothing.

.macdunk
dot macdunk
Hot Dot Macdunk (after a famous golf ball brand)
Dotty Macdunk (my first choice)
.com macdunk
.md
Guess what Dotty. I am back in town for a short while in middle of April.
I suggest we have a night out on the town, eg dinner, drinks, drive etc or catch up at a sharetraders meeting .

How about we go to MacDonalds for a bite to eat before we go to the pub and have a few ales (of course Macs Gold). After of which if your not too drunk to drive we can hop in your Big Mac back to old Macdonalds farm. Then we can get down to some serious stuff like looking at your Mac charts to plot out the next lot of mac winners.

Seriously though big guy, this thread would be dead boring without you. keep up your posts so can contiune the fun.

[trackers]

Industry buoyant as gas reserves grow

By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Tuesday, 11 March 2008


Gas reserves have grown significantly in the past five years and more may be discovered, broker McDouall Stuart says.
In a report presented to the Petroleum Conference in Auckland yesterday, McDouall Stuart researcher John Kidd said the overall theme of his assessment was "optimism".

....


There was also "ongoing speculation" that Maui, Pohokura, Kupe, Mangahewa and Turangi gasfields might all hold more gas than estimated.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4433620a13.html

[dsurf]

I dont have time to play the markets, pretty busy right now on a project out of town. I anticipate the big crash is coming, plenty of roadkill to pick up later on half way into 2009. I dont see any point investing for the sake of investing. Macdunk

I hear you but you could have made a killing the last few weeks by spreadbetting & shorting the US indices for instance which you have correctly called. I would argue that the crash is happening right now in the US and in every sector except commodities.

[trackers]

Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEc_WzxP5xjE&refer=home


Crude Oil Rises Above $108 to Record as Returns Outpace Stocks
By Mark Shenk




March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $108 a barrel in New York to a record as investors purchased futures because the returns have outpaced those of financial markets.
Oil in New York surged 80 percent over the past year as the S&P 500 and Dow averages dropped. China, the second-biggest oil- consuming country, increased crude-oil imports by 18 percent last month and halted overseas shipments to meet rising demand. Gold, platinum and other metals that have surged with oil fell today.
``Momentum coupled with sufficient fundamental underpinnings, such as the Chinese oil-import data for February, keeps propelling us,'' said John Kilduff (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John+Kilduff&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), senior vice president of energy at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``The grab for hard assets is on due to the lack of confidence in the rest of the markets at the moment.''
Crude oil for April delivery rose $2.75, or 2.6 percent, to close at a record $107.90 a barrel at 2:47 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures surged to $108.21 a barrel today, the highest since trading began in 1983.
Brent crude for April settlement climbed $1.78, or 1.7 percent, to close at a record $104.16 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Futures reached a $104.42 a barrel today, an intraday record.
Prices are heading to $120 ``in the short term,'' said Matthew Simmons (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Matthew+Simmons&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chairman of Simmons & Co., a Houston investment bank. ``I'm one of the few people who's not surprised to see crude at $107. I still think it's a bargain.''

Fund Buying
``We're witnessing an ongoing flow of fund buying, which isn't particularly motivated by the particulars of the petroleum market,'' said Tim Evans (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tim+Evans&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Prices have rallied to such an extent where sellers have backed off. Any time prices go lower the buyers come right back into the market.''
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in the week ended March 4, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

[Nitaa]

Nothing sweater than a repeater aye malcolm

"NZOG was looking to expand through its oil and gas production at Tui, Kupe and new prospects in Taranaki and also through acquisitions."

[Drone]

OK am going to put my neck out and predict a good rise today (i.e 2-4c).

Oil prices seem to be bedding in above $100
Strong rally in US markets this morning
Continued good publicity of the coy, awareness must be sinking in.
Small selldown in last couple of days, 128 has to be an attractive entry point..

Everyone complains about high petrol prices, why dont they just hedge it - buy NZO!!


Disc: Long a decent amount

[Phaedrus]

While the rising OBV is bullish, NZO seems to be hitting repeated resistance at $1.32.

The chart shows the latest price of $1.30 - the Close may well be different.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO312.gif

[Bilo]

While the rising OBV is bullish, NZO seems to be hitting repeated resistance at $1.32.


Hi Phaedrus
I think the correct observation from your graph is "A REPEAT OF RESISTANCE" for a second occurrance, not "repeated resistance".
But a buying opportunity?
:)

[Phaedrus]

Three times so far, Bilo. ??Coming up to a fourth??

Buying opportunities are found at support, not resistance.

A clear break above previous resistance is Bullish and often taken as a Buy signal.

[dsurf]

Are you saying phaedrus that it is time to short? since resistance is only 2 cents away and support 28. Do any other indicators make the picture clearer?

[Phaedrus]

You would be fairly brave shorting NZO in the face of a rising OBV, an intact uptrend and an unbroken confirmed trendline.

I don't see the situation as unclear. In my opinion, right now NZO is a Hold. Not a Sell. Not a Buy. Not a Short.

[Drone]

I'd have to agree that it has bounced of the 132 area fairly regularly the last couple of weeks. Hopefully more insto/fund interest can push it onwards and upwards.

But with a significant amount of oil still in the ground and crude prices continuing ever upward (and the kiwi flat to turning downward), NZO is going to generate some outstanding numbers over the next few years, even excluding any new strikes.

On that note the presentation to the conference today was fairly positive about a number of prospects that NZO has rights to.

Something to watch.

Disc: Long NZO

[Bixbite]

You would be fairly brave shorting NZO in the face of a rising OBV, an intact uptrend and an unbroken confirmed trendline.

I don't see the situation as unclear. In my opinion, right now NZO is a Hold. Not a Sell. Not a Buy. Not a Short.

According to the above Phaedrus’s graph, it seems that “resistance” can also be seen as “buy” if it has been broken. Now it’s the time for the company to show its hands to do a market share buyback to stimulate the share prices to break the resistance line to get the “Trading range breakout BUY”. Am I right, Gurus?

Cheers

[KiwiBear]

My pick thanks again to Phaedrus's post is to short - It had a previous shooting star candle with susequent down days.
The chart is starting to look like the beginning of a top at the last resistance test that I successfully called last time.
I would only be a buyer of this stock when it has confirmed a breakthough of resistance with 2 higher highs & higher lows days.

To me this chart looks like a big boys traders dream to get in and out to make quick big bucks, more than holding for the long term!

Why is has this price climbed, when AWE the bigger holder of Tui has dropped??? - Rampers or professional players????

Buyer beware

[Nitaa]

they are all having their own directions..just like all the stocks each of the ppp awe and nzpo are being oversold or overbought at different time perioids. also remember that the others dont have pike and kupe and awe and ppp have others we dont...

ppp looks like the bargin at the moment compared to awe and nzo since it is so heavily in tui compared to market cap and couple with oil prices

[the machine]

tui now less than 10 days to reach the 10m barrels as nzo today showed approx 9.6m barrels produced as at march 12.

production average since jan 1st has dropped to approx 45,000/day , so that means they producing in low 40's now

the milestone likely to be reached during Thursday March 10 and if the consortium want to gain maximum PR out of this then they need to make the announcement during trading on the Thursday [do nzx / asx close early that day?]
otherwise it will not have same effect if left until after easter

nzo awe & ppp could all do with some positive news.

M

[zorba]

.
Oil breaks past US$110 a barrel ....... what will it close at today !!!! ????

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/48
.
.

[trackers]

New drilling report out... Nothing overly special:



Dear Subscriber,

NZOG has released this week's Kupe Drilling Report. KS-6 has reached its planned total depth and KS-8 will shortly enter the target reservoir.

KUPE DEVELOPMENT WELLS DISCLOSURE NOTICE
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that at 14:00 hours on 12 March, the 8-1/2 inch
drilling assembly was being run in to drill out the 9-5/8 inch casing shoe-track on Kupe South 8
(KS-8).
Over the last week, drilling of the 8-1/2 inch section of the Kupe South 6 (KS-6) well reached
the planned total depth of 3,385m MDRT (measured depth from rotary table); reservoir
evaluation logs were completed; the 5 inch liner set and cemented; and the well suspended.

[COLIN]

Good to know, though, that one hole has reached its final depth - apparently without any broken bits or whatever gumming up the hole!

[the machine]

New drilling report out... Nothing overly special:

What is missing is any flow test information after completion of the wireline logs.
nzo have missed this opportunity to spur on their sp!


On the positive side by jumping to KS-8 brings forward the good or bad news, as this is a semi semi wildcat, a positive gas flow can substantially increase the resource
[as commented on in recent broker report]

M

[Noodle]

NZO
13/03/2008
DIVIDEND

REL: 1119 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

DIVIDEND: NZO: Appendix 7 - Dividend Payment

Please find attached an Appendix 7 Notice of Event relating to the dividend
payment to holders of ordinary shares in New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited on 15
April 2008. The dividend will be fully imputed.

ISIN: NZNOGE0001S6
Dividend amount: 0.05
Currency: NZD
Total monies: 13,110,303
Record date: 04/04/2008
Application Date: 15/04/2008

[Noodle]

Finally shareholders will get a little something for their patients!
Thought perhaps we may see a wee rise in share price with this announcement.
Perhaps I have just dreamt that I read an email about a dividend?....:)

[trackers]

In the last couple of weeks we've seen oil prices move such that NZO is now receiving ~10% more for its oil, all of which I suspect will be going to the bottom line....



Petrol at record high after oil hits US$110


Is the petrol price hurting you?


Send us Your Views (http://blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/your-views/2008/3/13/petrol-price-hurting-you/?c_id=1501154#message)


Motorists are now paying more for petrol than ever before with a three cent a litre rise overnight.
Shell, BP and Caltex lifted their prices at the pump overnight. That move takes the price in the main centres to $1.78 a litre for 91 and $1.83 for 95.
AA spokesman Mark Stockdale said that is a cent above the previous record high in July and August 2006 and is concerning given it has come at a time when the New Zealand dollar is quite strong at 80 cents against the US.
Mr Stockdale said while the currency is cushioning New Zealand somewhat from the shock of rises in the price of crude, he is worried about what might happen if the kiwi falls.
One company going against the trend is Gull, who are discounting the price of fuel in a promotional venture by five cents a litre from 7am today until 9am tomorrow.
The company says the move is to celebrate the last test match between England and the Black Caps in Wellington today.
On world markets, oil pierced US$110 a barrel this morning (NZ time), marking the sixth straight day of record highs, as the dollar sank to new lows and outweighed large increases in US crude inventories.


Investors have raced into commodities over the past month to hedge against inflation and the slumping dollar, sending oil to fresh peaks despite concerns about the economic health of top oil consumer the United States and rising fuel stocks.
US crude CLc1 settled up US$1.17 at US$109.92 after racing to an all-time high of US$110.20 earlier. London Brent LCOc1 gained US$1.02 to settle at US$106.27 a barrel, off a record US$106.41 hit earlier in the day.
US consumers already face record petrol prices at the pump due to soaring crude costs for refiners, prompting forecasts for petrol above $4 a gallon in some regions as the summer driving season approaches.
- NEWSTALK ZB, REUTERS

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10497918

[bk]

I would love to see what the future brings - today I'm posting on page 199 of 210 pages it seems. Page 210 - a month or two in the future perhaps? Oil at $120 by then, Kupe found some more gas?

[swissboy]

Worse than that I cant get direct to the last post