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jke_brown
04-08-2007, 10:39 PM
Since the old NZO thread disappeared just about when significant changes are imminent for NZO, this new thread is to pick up from the old one.

Jackie

Admin note: Please start a new NZO thread as the old one will be read only when it comes back in:

Admin Note: You can still view the old NOG thread here: OLD NOG/NZO THREAD (http://snitzforum.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18548)

bermuda
04-09-2007, 12:16 PM
Exactly Arjay,
If NZO post a dividend then watch this stock fly.
We covered this possibility a week or so ago so I wont repeat myself.

And yes if Cape or Kopowai are success(s) then of course the whole area ( and NZO ) get rerated upward.

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 12:18 PM
This is what reverts back to what type of investor you are if you made money or lost money on NZO. A TA person with a stop loss sell system would have made heaps at the expence of a fundamentalist we are always right brigade. I encountered a similar thing on the nickel miners with my shares doubling in price to drop right back. If i had been a dummy i would have watched my profits vanish like some of you with NZO. The point is have you learned from the experience or are you still always right, and will continue on being sitting duck material. Some people might argue that they have had NZO shares for so long that they lost nothing, which is total rubbish.
If you had the shares and options when the price peaked and still hold, then i suggest you are sitting duck material waiting on the next season to open. NZO requires large sums of money to continue prospecting, its not going to give out crumbs to feed the ducks like some of you quackers think. They might try and pull a fast one to get the price up for the options to get more money in but other than that you have had it. I would think you are on a downtrend regardless of what the fundamentals are. Macdunk

Mick100
04-09-2007, 12:35 PM
This is what reverts back to what type of investor you are if you made money or lost money on NZO. A TA person with a stop loss sell system would have made heaps at the expence of a fundamentalist we are always right brigade.

I think it's time to remind you of your very own foray into NZO macduck.
You bought a truck load of NZO shares ("enough money invested to buy an average house" - your words) at $1.18. You sold those shares two yrs later for 90c. What type of investor are you macduck? :o

Zorbah
04-09-2007, 12:48 PM
.
Tapis oil price rising ..... back above US$78 / barrel

See second diagram:

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm

bermuda
04-09-2007, 12:50 PM
Mick100,
I think Macdunk is going to refute that very strongly. I cant believe Macdunk would get taken for a ride all the way down from 118 to 90. He would have stop losses in place.

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 12:54 PM
I think it's time to remind you of your very own foray into NZO macduck.
You bought a truck load of NZO shares ("enough money invested to buy an average house" - your words) at $1.18. You sold those shares two yrs later for 90c. What type of investor are you macduck? :o I was waiting on you coming out the woodwork MICK, nice to see you see you havent changed. Why dont you tell them all what i did after i sold MIck. Options i valued at 5c remember sold the lot at 9c bought PPP at 11c sold at 21c. I then bought MCR at $2-15 sold that lot after it more than doubled placed my origonal stake in the bank left half in MCR at no cost. Would you like to know what happened to my NZO share money mick or have you had enough. On top of all that the exchange rate has made nearly a 5% gain. You did the same with PGW didnt you you ride it all the way up the hill and all the way down. I would suggest a PHAEDRUS sharp and short course of market reality, and perception might be the cure for your little problem.
I am now into trading full time MICK will keep you up to date before the event as usual. Your old mate macdunk.

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 12:58 PM
Mick100,
I think Macdunk is going to refute that very strongly. I cant believe Macdunk would get taken for a ride all the way down from 118 to 90. He would have stop losses in place. I normally do but was caught up in the hype learned a very big lesson. Still it is no worse than Mick this is second dumping from a great height. At least i learned a lesson and moved on. Macdunk

Mick100
04-09-2007, 01:26 PM
I normally do but was caught up in the hype learned a very big lesson. Still it is no worse than Mick this is second dumping from a great height. At least i learned a lesson and moved on. Macdunk

There is a very slight difference between your NZO experience and that of mine macduck; You had an average buy price of $1.18 while my ave buy price is 51c; you have sold while I still hold; your away chasing the next hot stock while I'm happy to wait and watch this company develope it's projects.

You obviously thought NZO had better prospects 2.5 yrs ago, (when you were prepared to pay $1.18 for the shares) than it has today. Today you claim the shares are overvalued at $1.00:confused:
.

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 01:47 PM
There is a very slight difference between your NZO experience and that of mine macduck; You had an average buy price of $1.18 while my ave buy price is 51c; you have sold while I still hold; your away chasing the next hot stock while I'm happy to wait and watch this company develope it's projects.

You obviously thought NZO had better prospects 2.5 yrs ago, (when you were prepared to pay $1.18 for the shares) than it has today. Today you claim the shares are overvalued at $1.00:confused:
. Mick The shares are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them. When i bought at $1-18 the shares had a few holes to drill now they have less potential with the latest couple of dusters. Its not what you or i think its worth its what the market thinks its worth right now the market has been in a confirmed downtrend. You could have been out on two occasions about thirty percent higher over the years than the sp is today. NZO was the very worst share i ever bought simply by letting hype and bulldust make me forget to act on my TA rules. Hope you learn from your mistake in watching the sp drop thirty pc twice without acting along with your PGW. Macdunk

jonny5
04-09-2007, 01:54 PM
I know the joy of forums is a good debate, and the two of you feast off each other in this regard, but I think it's a bit much?

I think debasing a share is as (if not more) important than ramping it up. That being said I don't think that requires finger-pointing or names.

Dunc, why can't you bash NZO without pointing to your perceived failure of another? Similarly, Mick why aren't you content with your perceived successes to date with NZO without picking at Dunc's shortcomings?

Not trying to stifle or mediate... just thinking aloud. I think people will be more likely to take your thoughts and opinions to heart if you depersonalize them.

J5

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 02:29 PM
JONNY5, Mick picking on me will highlight my shortcomings which might save you from making a similar mistake in the future. Likewise i bring his shortcomings to the fore. We both give the occasional poke in the ribs to see if the other ts awake. I LUV THE GUY LIKE AN IDIOT BROTHER we both enjoy the banter sit back and relax he cant even spell MACDUNK so be gentle with him. Macdunk

bermuda
04-09-2007, 02:29 PM
Jonny5
Yes I agree we should keep this thread constructive. Otherwise we should go over to Hotcopper.

Now that Tui is pumping and the excitement of the drills has passed, I would expect this thread on NZO to get a lot quieter.

Tui is pumping well and Kupe and Pike are getting nearer each day. Gradually NZO will climb especially at today's oil and coal prices and exchange rates.

And hopefully there will be good news at Kupe and perhaps another Tui upward rerating that was alluded to by David Salisbury....and then of course there was talk of a dividend.

Mick100
04-09-2007, 02:31 PM
Not trying to stifle or mediate... just thinking aloud. I think people will be more likely to take your thoughts and opinions to heart if you depersonalize them.

J5

I think the reason macduck keeps bombarding us with his bullsh!t posts on this NZO thread is because his investment into NZO was a disaster. He's simply knocking the company because he lost quite a substancial amount of money on it . The reason why macduck lost money on NZO has nothing to do with the company and everything to do with his horribly flawed, short sighted approach to investing/speculating.

As long as macduck keeps posting his bullsh!t on this thread I will remind him of his foray into NZO - I think he needs to be reminded ocassionally;)
.

Bilo
04-09-2007, 02:34 PM
It was difficult to pick up NZO shares under NZ$1. Not many changed hands but I got a few more. The NZO share price is as usual very soft upwards and the spread increases quickly with any significant volume. Accumulating is difficult even for the very patient. With the NZOOD’s on the horizon to raise NZ$150M and meet all forseeable future project funding requirements, there are no cheap share issues to stuff up the share price advancing.

NZO is accumulating NZ$1M per day at present from Tui and will be for many more months. Three months is 100 days – as one poster on Fixx noted, as I remember – “a junior oiler in full flight is a wonder to behold”. With the speculators out of the way (or trying to get out) now is the time for some share price appreciation and share value realisation.

Put the Taranui drill into perspective. It cost NZO less than a few days Tui revenue. The final Tui project cost AUD330M (according to AWE at the end of August) and will be paid back before the end of September (this month!) and we only have a year or two of Tui production left - without a field extension.

The Tui consortium spent A$330M for potentially A$3,300M in revenues – does investing ever get any better than this? Another Maui perhaps…

It is a little disappointing that the Tui oil field didn’t stretch 15km up to Taranui but the up side to drills closer to TAP is still huge.

We can now fortunately sit back and watch Tui cash accumulate from a very successful project, fantastic oil prices, and a favourable exchange rate. NZO can take some time to consider the clues provided from the current drilling program as to where more of that ‘Naki oil can be found.

Zorbah
04-09-2007, 02:40 PM
.
Great posts by Johnny5 and Bilo ...... !!!!

ratkin
04-09-2007, 03:04 PM
Mick The shares are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them.


No wonder us real investors grow rich while the chartists just keep their brokers in work

kissssik
04-09-2007, 03:09 PM
Agree with Z.....maybe it is time for the rampers (SC included, like it or not my friend your one of the best) and the likes of MacD to find some other stock to either hipe up or beat up in MacD case, constructive fact based comment is the go, HC was mentioned seems some here are well suited for that forum given the amount of BS on this forum.

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 03:40 PM
I think that anyone that has posted an opposing view on NZO other than the up up and away syndrome, has been treated with lots of personal abuse from the starry eyed brigade. If you read back over the pages to get a ballanced view of where the company has been, and where it is likely to go to, you will see exactly what i mean. Always two sides to every story, i closed the book after the last AGM which was when it dawned on me what i had invested in. I like it when people come out with opposing thoughts on shares that i hold, it makes me consider points that i might have overlooked.
I dont mind people saying this or that about me, infact it amuses me when they start getting personal. The people that do that sort of thing i really like, because i know that one day their money will sit in my bank account. Getting back to NZO well there you have it, whats it worth?, and where is it going from here, that is all that matters, not your ability to spell macdunk. The options are now just over 10c, i sold at 9c silly me and doubled my money twice. Pass the parcel time coming up guys with those. The heads go sideways should stay about a dollar untill the next move, thats my opinion you think whatever thats what makes a market. Macdunk

Phaedrus
04-09-2007, 04:02 PM
No wonder us real investors grow rich while the chartists just keep their brokers in work

Here is a long-term view of NZO from a chartist's perspective. Using trading-range breakouts to buy and trendline breaks to sell, just 2 trades were triggered over these 7 years. The OBV plot provided excellent confirmation for these signals. (Buy when OBV rises, Sell when OBV stops rising).

This level of activity would do little to keep brokers in work!

Would "real investors" (presumably with a "Buy and Hold" approach) have outperformed with this stock? No. Keep in mind that NZO was going nowhere in trading ranges for 5 years of the 7 shown here! How would a "real investor" grow rich on that?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO94.gif

duncan macgregor
04-09-2007, 04:17 PM
PHEADRUS, You had better get ready to duck these people wont face reality. Newyears day 2005 until today about exactly the same level. Tomorrow it goes up 5c then its i told you so. Reality for you and me comes hard, but at least we learn then move on. the people left in NZO are not TA people who are long gone its the i know better than the market brigade who struggle to spell macdunk. Get in behind mate let the crap hit me first i luv it.
I only hope new to the market investors get a ballanced view and learn from all this. Macdunk

KiwiBear
04-09-2007, 04:30 PM
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor; Reality for you and me comes hard, but at least we learn then move on. I only hope new to the market investors get a ballanced view and learn from all this. Macdunk[/QUOTE]

I'll leave it up to you guys to work it out, surely this quality ASX stock gives a much more diversified entry into oil/NZ fields, and also showing the beginnings of an uptrend/ not downwards like PPP & NZO

Notice- the squeezing of the bollingers with the start of an uptrend
(Bollinger squeeze shows eminent change)

KiwiBear
04-09-2007, 04:48 PM
Hi
Compare NZO with AWE! The SP is in a crabbing sideways with again the bollinger squeeze with uncertainty (choppy SP) more chance of further down than up is my pick. PPP is very similar with more down than sideways.

Thanks Phaedrus for your OBV observations, I only use the freebie sites that don't have them, unless you know of some?

Crypto Crude
04-09-2007, 05:39 PM
kissssik

Agree with Z.....maybe it is time for the rampers (SC included, like it or not my friend your one of the best) and the likes of MacD to find some other stock to either hipe up or beat up in MacD case, constructive fact based comment is the go, HC was mentioned seems some here are well suited for that forum given the amount of BS on this forum.

kissssik....
I cant think of one stock That Ive ramped that hasnot turned out well... aed, nwe boomed... tex up over 20%... CUE picked at the top end of the market and up....nzood picked twice, end of 2006, and recently... both times Od's went physco...call it what you like kissssik...
I'd like to see you make stock picks in a open public forumn successfully...
If im a ramper then so be it... at least I can back it up with facts...
I never ramped Pike....and I put RRS on a major sell...
....
nzo had buy written all over it 2-3 months ago, and I stand by that with pride...
with all the market volatility, nzo and nzood are still up when I started pushing nzood...had you sold out of nzo at the top you would have been up over 30cps... and over 200% on the od's...
sometimes my picks look so attractive that I have to give abit more omph... I was getting called ramper on nwe left right and center, and then in 2 weeks it shot up a one bagger...:p
kisssk, I hope you find it in your heart to forgive me for being alittle boisterous at times...
what have your returns been like?
you never no maybe you wish you had taken my advice...:p
I get mad support for what I do around here...what are you on about...
:cool:
.^sc

shasta
04-09-2007, 06:06 PM
kissssik....
I cant think of one stock That Ive ramped that hasnot turned out well... aed, nwe boomed... tex up over 20%... CUE picked at the top end of the market and up....nzood picked twice, end of 2006, and recently... both times Od's went physco...call it what you like kissssik...
I'd like to see you make stock picks in a open public forumn successfully...
If im a ramper then so be it... at least I can back it up with facts...
I never ramped Pike....and I put RRS on a major sell...
....
nzo had buy written all over it 2-3 months ago, and I stand by that with pride...
with all the market volatility, nzo and nzood are still up when I started pushing nzood...had you sold out of nzo at the top you would have been up over 30cps... and over 200% on the od's...
sometimes my picks look so attractive that I have to give abit more omph... I was getting called ramper on nwe left right and center, and then in 2 weeks it shot up a one bagger...:p
kisssk, I hope you find it in your heart to forgive me for being alittle boisterous at times...
what have your returns been like?
you never no maybe you wish you had taken my advice...:p
I get mad support for what I do around here...what are you on about...
:cool:
.^sc

SC

Plenty of people are happy to ride on the back of those who offer tips, & knock them as rampers when they sell, water off a ducks back i say!

Sheesh i get called that all the time :D:eek::rolleyes:

Back to NZO, in a way i'm glad all these distractions of satelite drilling are behind us, im disappointed the SP is where it it, but now its starting to look like your beloved NWE, cheap & with cash rolling in every week ...

Markets rightly discount future projects, but NOT CASH!

Perhaps the traders will now leave NZO for greener pastures & the value investors move in?

Am still looking to exit, but at a much higher SP

AMR
04-09-2007, 08:40 PM
I'm getting a buy signal. A bullish divergence of the Stochastic on the 15th August and a crossing of the MAC histogram a fortnight later. Or has the stock simply fallen into a trading range again? (Note: Incredible charts uses delayed data)

AMR
04-09-2007, 10:28 PM
(On second thought, it's probably not a buy signal since the 5 month trendline just got broken. A pullback rally? God these charts are tough.)

Dr_Who
05-09-2007, 07:13 AM
$NZ down and oil prices up...:)

BigBob
05-09-2007, 09:51 AM
Hi Phaedrus,

Isn't NZO strictly speaking still in a long term up trend...? As far as I can see there's a continuation of higher highs and higher lows starting in early 2003... This pattern will only be broken with a break of support of the low of 80'ish in late 2005.. or maybe that's just far too simple a view....?

Toddy
05-09-2007, 10:02 AM
The options have held up extremely well.
Punters still picking a 60% increase in the NZO share price by the end of June.

Thats what I call confidence.

Phaedrus
05-09-2007, 10:16 AM
Hi Phaedrus, Isn't NZO strictly speaking still in a long term up trend...? .. or maybe that's just far too simple a view....?

Absolutely right BB. That's why (amongst other things) it is on the chart of 16 "potential buying opportunities" on the 'Market Perspective' thread.

Just because it is in a long-term uptrend doesn't necessarily mean that it is best to simply "Buy and Hold" though. While, overall, NZO has been an out-performing stock, it has also gone nowhere for years at a time on the way up. The idea is to be in when it is going up and out when it is going sideways or down. They call it "active investing".

Sehnsucht888
05-09-2007, 10:53 AM
The options have held up extremely well.
Punters still picking a 60% increase in the NZO share price by the end of June.

Thats what I call confidence.

Well, that is almost 10 months away. 6 odd weeks ago head shares were $1.30+ and so options looked much healthier.
There hasn't been any real fundamental change - a couple speculative drills were dusters - not unexpected, but TUI is flowing, and more than expected.
June is a long time away..

dsurf
05-09-2007, 11:18 AM
Add 15% more oil in Tui, FX change around +12%, Oil still high. When currrent panic over & "year to date" trading announced around time of AGM, & usual kupe hoopla $1.50 will look cheap!!

good to hear how much money you have made MacDrunk also

Nitaa
05-09-2007, 11:42 AM
duncan. you are taking nzo personally. stocks for short term purposes are like a one night stand. just because you had a good or bad time when the show is over its time to say goodbye.....let is go. you have left nzo becuase nzo stood you up. it happenes all the time so get over it already and move on.

BigBob
05-09-2007, 12:08 PM
Just because it is in a long-term uptrend doesn't necessarily mean that it is best to simply "Buy and Hold" though. While, overall, NZO has been an out-performing stock, it has also gone nowhere for years at a time on the way up. The idea is to be in when it is going up and out when it is going sideways or down. They call it "active investing".

Fair call - but for a less active investor (like myself) maybe it could be argued that it is prudent to hold at least till the up trend is broken...

Closed Loop
05-09-2007, 12:27 PM
Now that all the drills in this series are completed [sadly all failures] the SP will now move on existing fundamentals and not on speculation.In fact the drills have had a negative effect on the SP as there was always a chance that they would be unsuccesful.That negative effect was greater than it should have been and now that the drills are out of the way the SP can now move forward on fundamentals.Or put it another way the SP will now be decided by investers and not speculators. Or again another way the SP would be higher today if NZO had never taken part in a drilling series.It seems to me that the only negative effect of drilling a dud well should be limited to your % cost of the unsuccessful drill. With NZO the negative effect is much greater that just thoses costs.

boysy
05-09-2007, 12:35 PM
any one see mention on NZO in ASB securities August market update ? also Dsurf dont forget PRC it might be a big dissapointment so far but it will start producing before options are excised so watch this space

STRAT
05-09-2007, 12:45 PM
duncan. you are taking nzo personally. .Recon not:D Some just like a good debate. Amongst other things, isnt that what these forums are all about?? ;)

duncan macgregor
05-09-2007, 02:50 PM
duncan. you are taking nzo personally. stocks for short term purposes are like a one night stand. just because you had a good or bad time when the show is over its time to say goodbye.....let is go. you have left nzo becuase nzo stood you up. it happenes all the time so get over it already and move on. NITA, Life is not all bang bang thank u maam. At least that is better than being stuck forever and a day with something as dull and lifeless as NZO. On a more serious note how is this for an idea?.
NZO buy shares with their substantial profits at market price all the way up to conversion date, Lets face it look at the money they will miss out on if the options are not taken up.
That would save pass the parcel embarrassment with the options when they are worth nothing. They would raise the price of their shares add a new pile of shares with the options being worth something then drip feed it back to the punters at a profit. Macdunk

boysy
05-09-2007, 03:02 PM
true macdunk im sure they would rather get funds off optionholders to finance development rather than other avenues as would send a very negative view to market if ODs dont get in the money

Balance
05-09-2007, 05:36 PM
NZO's share price will drift lower as the excitment factor is dissipating by the day?

The IPO of PRC has proven to be a disappointment after a lot of hype and promise. There were investors piling into NZO to get a slice of PRC. As it turned out, they need not have bothered. It is still a risky project with uncertain payoffs and its share price reflects that.

Hector is stone cold dead as a prospect - forget about the billions of dollars to be found.

Taranui has just come in stone cold dead.

So cold reality will now start setting in. And on that score, it's a lot easier playing around with a stock which is well covered like AWE or BHP than it is with a stock like NZO where valuations done to date are so out of synch with the market's view.

shasta
05-09-2007, 06:03 PM
NZO's share price will drift lower as the excitment factor is dissipating by the day?

The IPO of PRC has proven to be a disappointment after a lot of hype and promise. There were investors piling into NZO to get a slice of PRC. As it turned out, they need not have bothered. It is still a risky project with uncertain payoffs and its share price reflects that.

Hector is stone cold dead as a prospect - forget about the billions of dollars to be found.

Taranui has just come in stone cold dead.

So cold reality will now start setting in. And on that score, it's a lot easier playing around with a stock which is well covered like AWE or BHP than it is with a stock like NZO where valuations done to date are so out of synch with the market's view.

6250 bopd for NZO, makes for exciting times you mean Balance?

Agree, AWE (& other ASX mid tier oilers) are better covered by analysts, & NZO being in the NZX50 doesn't seem to mean a damn thing...

However, no hype, blue sky valuations, & even NZO's long time knockers can' t argue against it, we have $$$$ people!

NZO has cash & lots of it, nothing boring about that, it's what we've all been waiting for, NZO starting to PRODUCE the blackgold...:eek:

Every week we will get another > $3.5m revenue into the pot...

We get too much of it & someone else will want to take it off us :(

The SP should incrementally climb, & ultimately be at the mercy of oil prices whilst we are running at 50,000bopd flow rates.

No longer a trading stock IMO, but more of a yield play for investors.

Balance
05-09-2007, 06:09 PM
Plenty of companies out there producing the blackgold, shasta - plenty. The one thing worth noticing is that posters here keep talking revenues from the production but how much of that is already priced into the stock? Paying $1.00 for $1.00 makes no sense.

Hector and Taranui were priced into NZO and when they came out dry, down went the share price despite the belief by some that they were free options. Sorry but they were not free, were they?

trackers
05-09-2007, 06:19 PM
Now that all the drills in this series are completed [sadly all failures] the SP will now move on existing fundamentals and not on speculation.In fact the drills have had a negative effect on the SP as there was always a chance that they would be unsuccesful.That negative effect was greater than it should have been and now that the drills are out of the way the SP can now move forward on fundamentals.Or put it another way the SP will now be decided by investers and not speculators. Or again another way the SP would be higher today if NZO had never taken part in a drilling series.It seems to me that the only negative effect of drilling a dud well should be limited to your % cost of the unsuccessful drill. With NZO the negative effect is much greater that just thoses costs.

Well said!

boysy
05-09-2007, 06:25 PM
just state the facts hector and taranui were duds but TUI isnt ,with potential for regrade ect but based on the facts the SP of $1 will be short lived if crude prices remain high and our x change falls either one of which is likely,and possibly both .

Balance
05-09-2007, 06:29 PM
just state the facts hector and taranui were duds but TUI isnt ,with potential for regrade ect but based on the facts the SP of $1 will be short lived if crude prices remain high and our x change falls either one of which is likely,and possibly both .


Profit = Revenues less costs less interest.

So what is Tui worth to NZO NPV? I do not know but you all seem to but don't want to post it ?

shasta
05-09-2007, 06:44 PM
Plenty of companies out there producing the blackgold, shasta - plenty. The one thing worth noticing is that posters here keep talking revenues from the production but how much of that is already priced into the stock? Paying $1.00 for $1.00 makes no sense.

Hector and Taranui were priced into NZO and when they came out dry, down went the share price despite the belief by some that they were free options. Sorry but they were not free, were they?

Fair call others oilers i like are AED/NWE/AWE/BPT/COE, but NZO undilluted @ say 260m @ $1 = $260m MC (very simplistic terms)

We get 9 months revenue to balance date (6250 X 365 x 9/12 = 1.7mmbo)

for 1 July - 31 March (take off a month or so to be conservative, say 1.5mmbo & for the ultra conservative reduce to 1.0m).

Using $US70 @ NZ/USD 0.70 (again very simplistic thinking) = $100 per barrel or $100m revenue

Is a $260m MC reasonable for a company generating that sort of revenue?

It won't last at those levels for much more than a year, but with Pike & Kupe to come online 2008/09, as a yield type play we can now start to apply a forward P/E ratio to value NZO.

Now, lets estimate the numbers, say EBITDA of $80m?, & NPAT of $52m?(no tax due to continuity of losses carried forward).

I used NPAT of $52m to illustrate EPS @ 20c, & as of today the market says a P/E of 5 @ $1?

Naw, to cheap for my mind, givien the POO & FX rates allow for more upside & these figures exclude other projects...

Conclusion: $1 today is buying more than $1, real question is how much more are you getting?

NB, Figures are all illustrative only, please DYOR.

shane_m
05-09-2007, 06:44 PM
Paying $1.00 for $1.00 makes no sense.
were they?

are you comparing $250m market cap and max revenue of $250m?

upside_umop
05-09-2007, 08:59 PM
Profit = Revenues less costs less interest.

So what is Tui worth to NZO NPV? I do not know but you all seem to but don't want to post it ?

I have quickly updated waihokke's (spelt along those lines) spreadsheet by applying current market rates:

-oil from $55 to $75
-exchange rate from 0.67 to 0.70
-NPV starting from now rather than 3 years
-updated the recoverable amount of oil from 25mmboe to 32mmboe
-updated number of shares to 262.5 million

All other factors left constant. The factors above have potential for upside, but also for downside.

Given this, it gives NZO a NPV of $177 million = 67.5 cps
All in all, this is a high case scenario.

A couple of things i noticed in the spreadsheet that i didnt fix were:

1) The oil flows were for 7 years, rather than 18 expected this will adversly affect the NPV of the project.

2) Tax benefits were not included, this will positively affect the NPV.

For the above two, I havent calculated net effect, as it was relatively quick fix of the current spreadsheet, but you get the overall jist of things.

shasta
05-09-2007, 09:41 PM
I have quickly updated waihokke's (spelt along those lines) spreadsheet by applying current market rates:

-oil from $55 to $75
-exchange rate from 0.67 to 0.70
-NPV starting from now rather than 3 years
-updated the recoverable amount of oil from 25mmboe to 32mmboe
-updated number of shares to 262.5 million

All other factors left constant. The factors above have potential for upside, but also for downside.

Given this, it gives NZO a NPV of $177 million = 67.5 cps
All in all, this is a high case scenario.

A couple of things i noticed in the spreadsheet that i didnt fix were:

1) The oil flows were for 7 years, rather than 18 expected this will adversly affect the NPV of the project.

2) Tax benefits were not included, this will positively affect the NPV.

For the above two, I havent calculated net effect, as it was relatively quick fix of the current spreadsheet, but you get the overall jist of things.

What on earth discount were you using, NPV of $177m = one full year of revenue @ 50k BOPD & this project will go for around 10 years!

Remember the oil is flowing NOW, so the discount applied should be low - mid single digits.

The Tax benefit is around $40m or around 14cps itself.

I would also argue the POO will be higher & the FX rate lower...

Look at my earlier post with extremely conservative figures!

PS Its Waaihoek :D

croesus
05-09-2007, 09:49 PM
Looking to shortly increase my oil weighting....but not sure wether to buy more PPP or NZO... or possibly a Aussie oiler.....probably tending towards PPP at this stage....any guidence out there.?

arjay
05-09-2007, 09:51 PM
The real value of the NZO SP will only be reflected in the market once NZO starts making a regular return to shareholders. No amount of blue sky drilling horizons will get us there. Neither will Tui pumping, whether it be 1000 barrels per day or 100,000 barrels per day if that revenue goes into drilling risky wells and shareholders don't see any of it. What's needed is a better than ~15c/share dividend per year for the next few years to represent a better investment on $1.50 than putting your money in the bank. For a distribution of 15c next year NZO would reap 10X that amount $1.50 in exercised options, which is good for NZO and good for their shareholders (win-win). Continued dividends over the life of Tui, Kupe etc at 15c or above will underpin the real SP at a minimum of around $1.50. Good for everyone I reckon.

shasta
05-09-2007, 10:03 PM
The real value of the NZO SP will only be reflected in the market once NZO starts making a regular return to shareholders. No amount of blue sky drilling horizons will get us there. Neither will Tui pumping, whether it be 1000 barrels per day or 100,000 barrels per day if that revenue goes into drilling risky wells and shareholders don't see any of it. What's needed is a better than ~15c/share dividend per year for the next few years to represent a better investment on $1.50 than putting your money in the bank. For a distribution of 15c next year NZO would reap 10X that amount $1.50 in exercised options, which is good for NZO and good for their shareholders (win-win). Continued dividends over the life of Tui, Kupe etc at 15c or above will underpin the real SP at a minimum of around $1.50. Good for everyone I reckon.

Arjay,

Even the "mature" low growth companies on the NZX, like CMO/STU don't quite pay 10% & to be honest i would like to think NZO could do much better by buying a bigger slice of the action in a JV with AWE on say a 50/50 basis.

We also have to consider growth by acquistion, once we ditch the coalmine.

We are only just a producer, & if we sit back & just become a bank, like PPP & NWE we will get taken over, as the cash in the bank funds itself!

Croseus - Look at AED/NWE - or AWE/PPP - i like these pairings...

upside_umop
05-09-2007, 10:14 PM
haha cheers for the spelling!
discount rate used is 9% which was originally used, and i still feel is appropriate..
the tax benefit being worth 14cps is good, but will probably be offset in the calculation from the short amount of time being used to recover oil in spreadsheet, ie 7 years instead of 18.

i hope poo is higher too, but if we were thinking that and want to bet on it, we should be taking long positions on it :D :D
i was so so close to taking out a forward contract for 2-3 years when nzd hit around 78 cents...but the banks only did 6 months contracts (although would be looking good now) and other forex places just laughed at the young student wanting to buy that sort of usd...

have you got Waaihoek's original spreadsheet shasta?

shasta
05-09-2007, 10:21 PM
haha cheers for the spelling!
discount rate used is 9% which was originally used, and i still feel is appropriate..
the tax benefit being worth 14cps is good, but will probably be offset in the calculation from the short amount of time being used to recover oil in spreadsheet, ie 7 years instead of 18.

i hope poo is higher too, but if we were thinking that and want to bet on it, we should be taking long positions on it :D :D
i was so so close to taking out a forward contract for 2-3 years when nzd hit around 78 cents...but the banks only did 6 months contracts (although would be looking good now) and other forex places just laughed at the young student wanting to buy that sort of usd...

have you got Waaihoek's original spreadsheet shasta?

Hmmm i did have the ones he did on FIXX donkeys ago...

NPV probably isnt the best valuation method for a company NOW producing, as i don't believe any project should be discounting CASH.

Anyone know an industry average gross margin, or a reasonable idea of the costs to date?

I'd love to know the split between Capex/Maintenance, as with the loan repayments the interest is easy to work out.

croesus
06-09-2007, 05:25 AM
Thanks Shasta, I will research NWE and AWE today, I remember a poster maybe Shrewd Crude was keen on AWE but had'nt even heard of NWE.
Cheers.

On another note, I see WEN (NZ Listing,) has recievied a permit for the Kotuku Oil Seeps, from little acorns maybe ?

Balance
06-09-2007, 06:58 AM
Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

Closed Loop
06-09-2007, 07:32 AM
Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?


Balance your a share knocker freak.You must have got your schooling from religious zealous. You have the intended ability to see only what you want to find. I am left wondering why the NZO SP is not about 10 cents after reading your supposed balance comments. Could you shed any light on why it is still over a dollar dispite your many attempts to get it lower.
Finally is there any difference between Balance,Sniper,etc,etc, and Gerymouth Petroleum?

boysy
06-09-2007, 07:44 AM
the high case scenario was bassed on oil at $55 but as we all know its well over $75 presently and opex when it meets next tuesday is unlikely to increase supply. $55 is looking a tad conservative now balance wouldnt you agree ?

croesus
06-09-2007, 08:25 AM
Between Balance and Boysey we have 2 ends of the Spectrum....... not being a expert on NZO could someone post a value....which includes
Debt Owed
Cash in the Bank..plus estimate of Tui Cash going forward ( have they Hedged at a lower level then current mkt)
Forward expense ... commitments for future drills etc
NAV if the options go tits up nxt year
NAV if the options are taken up
Pike.. hmmn ... have my doubts... can that be a seperated assett...


and Shares on issue, ( I presume there a millions of Director options and rights lurking )
Cheers Croesus

Bilo
06-09-2007, 08:32 AM
Don't you just love it! When oil goes over $110NZ per barrel and the fundamentalists go searching for their company and project valuations. Yes, you must have a spreadsheet to work out the maths! The NZO share price isn't about maths. I posted a couple of days ago that the NZO capitalisation on the NZX was potentially less than the receipts they will get from Tui oil in the first 12 months of oil flow. Add to this: AWE's 6 months receipts could buy NZO twice over.

Oil up. Exchange rate down. And the NZO and AWE share prices go down!!!

Clearly someone wants to prove the point that the market can remain irrational for longer than we can remain solvent. Interesting day - will they win.

Bilo
06-09-2007, 08:36 AM
Croesus, if NZO weren't rolling in so much Tui cash they could tell you how much they were investing in PRC and Kupe and exploration. Just look at the receipts - the project has been funded and some of the next as well.

Bilo
06-09-2007, 08:57 AM
Beer on the Beach with David Salisbury?
To introduce a slightly different subject.

When building a house or celebrating a new addition to the family it is tradional in NZ to put a few beers on the site or go out with friends for a drink.

NZO directors and management should celebrate the first one million barrels of oil with shareholders – I think nominating a time and a place and organising internet acceptances would be in order.

Start a tradition we have Kupe’s 1M Barrels of Oil equivalent and Pike’s first 1M tonnes of the world’s finest coking coal to look forward to also. Or NZO can continue being nameless and faceless to their keenest, if not the richest, supporters.


(PS. I had to check the web site for the name of our new CEO as I hadn’t heard it mentioned for a while, David Salisbury)

Nitaa
06-09-2007, 09:06 AM
Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?
to give this post some balance.

2 years ago my sons car was worth 180k now its worth less than 70k. his property worth 1.2m and sold for 1.95m 2 months ago.

its strange how time effects things in different ways.

giving a balanced view as always. (i can remember seeing that somewhere)

bermuda
06-09-2007, 09:51 AM
Beer on the Beach with David Salisbury?
To introduce a slightly different subject.

When building a house or celebrating a new addition to the family it is tradional in NZ to put a few beers on the site or go out with friends for a drink.

NZO directors and management should celebrate the first one million barrels of oil with shareholders – I think nominating a time and a place and organising internet acceptances would be in order.

Start a tradition we have Kupe’s 1M Barrels of Oil equivalent and Pike’s first 1M tonnes of the world’s finest coking coal to look forward to also. Or NZO can continue being nameless and faceless to their keenest, if not the richest, supporters.


(PS. I had to check the web site for the name of our new CEO as I hadn’t heard it mentioned for a while, David Salisbury)

Bilo,
As a suggestion I am sure we could ask David Salisbury to address a small group of SHAREHOLDERS after the AGM and after lunch (Savouries and Tui ) in a small Boardroom.

We did this last year for an hour with Tony Radford and it was well worthwhile. You can cover a lot more ground than by asking questions in this format than at the AGM.

Let me know who is interested and I will run it by him.
Ps Shareholders only.

Dr_Who
06-09-2007, 10:12 AM
I will be there is there are free booze and food. :D

bermuda
06-09-2007, 10:19 AM
I will be there is there are free booze and food. :D

It would be an opportunity to sit around a Board table and have a chat for those that are sincerely interested.

Orange juice and water will be served.

Bilo
06-09-2007, 10:32 AM
Bilo,
As a suggestion I am sure we could ask David Salisbury to address a small group of SHAREHOLDERS after the AGM and after lunch (Savouries and Tui ) in a small Boardroom.

We did this last year for an hour with Tony Radford and it was well worthwhile. You can cover a lot more ground than by asking questions in this format than at the AGM.

Let me know who is interested and I will run it by him.
Ps Shareholders only.

Bermuda, I have no date or venue for the AGM, does anyone?

The AGM may be an opportunity to combine both activities but the 1M barrels will come before the AGM. I was thinking something far more informal than an AGM would be appropriate - an excuse to party without people running around over formalities.

Bilo
06-09-2007, 10:40 AM
Between Balance and Boysey we have 2 ends of the Spectrum....... not being a expert on NZO could someone post a value....which includes
Debt Owed
Cash in the Bank..plus estimate of Tui Cash going forward ( have they Hedged at a lower level then current mkt)
Forward expense ... commitments for future drills etc

Cheers Croesus

There was this back in May - an update would normally be appropriate in terms of NZX continuous disclosure!

"5:00AM Saturday May 19, 2007
By Adam Bennett
Chief executive David Salisbury expected operating ebitda from the Tui field in the June 2008 year to be at least $70 million, up from $60 million.
Rising oil prices have seen New Zealand Oil & Gas lift its earnings forecasts for its key Tui and Kupe oil and gas businesses, and the company says tax credits mean much of the money will go straight to its bottom line.
The company released the estimates in a briefing to institutional investors yesterday.
It had previously said it expected operating ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of $60 million from the Tui field in the June 2008 year, its first full year of operation. It now expects at least $70 million.
The previous estimate was based on an oil price of about US$45 a barrel but Malaysian Tapis crude oil, which serves as the regional benchmark, had been trading around US$73 lately.
But NZOG had made "conservative" estimates using a price of US$60 a barrel, NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said.
The price fetched by Tui oil over the period could turn out to be higher, further lifting earnings.
"But I'm conscious that the oil price is volatile and we want to give people a strong indication of where we sit, not have them feel that we're overstating the story," Salisbury said.
NZOG's estimates are based on current exchange rate levels for the 2008 year.."

Zorbah
06-09-2007, 02:12 PM
.
..... and the price of Tapis crude hits US$80 per barrel !!!!

See second diagram:

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm

Go the Tui pump-out !!!!

upside_umop
06-09-2007, 02:19 PM
Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

sorry to burst your bubble balance but:

the 40 mill valuation was for kupe satelite fields, mangatoa gas, and five oil prospects.
mangatoa gas was canned a while back and the 5 oil prospects have just come to an end now..

oil price has jumped from his low valuation (used for 1.26 a share) from 35 a barrel to 75 a barrel. hmmm not a bad increase in margin considering opex doesnt increase..

then there was the rerating..

we still have kupe to go, with upside to it.

but yeah, your right about prc, so its worth 55/262.5= 21cents a share.

look into it a bit further mate...

Sharp737
06-09-2007, 02:27 PM
$US80 per bbl Tapis = approx $NZ115 (at today's prices)

Lets see.... 47k bbl/day @ $NZ115 = $NZ5.4m per day (gross)
NOG's share @ 12.5% = $NZ675,625 per day = $20.268M per 30day month = $NZ60.8M over 3 months (gross).

Now if 47,000 bbl/day was kept up for even 6 months, that would be gross $NZ121.6M!!!

Ok, there are the running costs etc but my goodness!!

Pan Pacific's share is 10% and they would gross after 6 months $NZ97.2M at today's prices!

This has to be good

dsurf
06-09-2007, 02:51 PM
I love tapis at $80 but wonder if that can be kept up for more than a month with the hurricane season ending end of Oct? - Still at current prices would give 4 months at $72ish. Just in time for the AGM announcements & then PE calculations by the anal lisps

duncan macgregor
06-09-2007, 02:56 PM
I am inclined to think that fundamentalists are blind to reality. Lets take the numbers and work it all out your way. According to what i read 261,905,658. shares with future profits less administration and exploration costs are what is in the mix.
1, Prc life expectency say thirty years dividends and thats all the money NZO can expect from that [ LETS SAY 8%. Thats not much better than the bank with over thirty years.
2, Oil being sold how long will it last whats the end bottom line?.
3, Where to next will they buy shares back to get the option price further diluting the sp to increase the money at hand?.
$ Are they going to buy into new areas or take over minor companies in those areas.
4,Will they continue on bleeding the gullable to feather their own nest or will they turn into a company that will go and find new fields.
I think at the moment its not worth holding its pass the parcel time coming up. Macdunk

sideline
06-09-2007, 03:01 PM
I love tapis at $80 but wonder if that can be kept up for more than a month with the hurricane season ending end of Oct? - Still at current prices would give 4 months at $72ish. Just in time for the AGM announcements & then PE calculations by the anal lisps
there is always Iran & Bush and then the heating season starts in the northern hemisphere and....and ...and..... and the available oil gets less with every barrel pumped.

Crypto Crude
06-09-2007, 03:25 PM
I sent BR an email and he said the AGM date and place of the event had not been set... I did ask him a month ago....
Brian, maybe you have an update for us?
:cool:
.^sc

boysy
06-09-2007, 03:30 PM
and opec lets not forget those guys

Unicorn
06-09-2007, 05:27 PM
I sent BR an email and he said the AGM date and place of the event had not been set... I did ask him a month ago....
Brian, maybe you have an update for us?
:cool:
.^sc

The date is Friday 26 October.

Time and venue to be announced (recently they have been at the Crowne Plaza in Auckland, but that is not to say they will always be there).

arjay
06-09-2007, 06:28 PM
Bermuda - I'd be keen to sit in on any post-AGM chat-fest with management. I wasn't there last year, but went with Digger to the previous years gathering which was very good. Not a venue for traders though, or people with graphs and stop-gaps. More for the serious investment with a long-term interest in a consolidating company. Who knows wher eth eAGM will be. I recall my first NZO AGM - it was held at a conference centre next to the bridge acrosss the outlet to Orakei basin. That was a while ago.......

Balance
06-09-2007, 07:01 PM
Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

Got a few of you jumping up and down. Trying to warm up with the cold reality?

How come there was so much use of Waaihoek's valuation when it was all blue skies and unlimited potential but mysteriously, no mention when realities of PRC, Hector etc eventuate?

Not talking chickenfeed here - the valuations are out by a mile!

Let's read about Tui and Kupe being upgraded but where's the beef? Have they increased enough to offset the huge drop in PRC and oil prospects? What about the dilution effect of 80m more shares issued?

Come on, guys - come back with something substantial. Let's get some balance and let's get going. Let's really get into NZO and let's buy, buy or sell, sell.

shasta
06-09-2007, 07:24 PM
Got a few of you jumping up and down. Trying to warm up with the cold reality?

How come there was so much use of Waaihoek's valuation when it was all blue skies and unlimited potential but mysteriously, no mention when realities of PRC, Hector etc eventuate?

Not talking chickenfeed here - the valuations are out by a mile!

Let's read about Tui and Kupe being upgraded but where's the beef? Have they increased enough to offset the huge drop in PRC and oil prospects? What about the dilution effect of 80m more shares issued?

Come on, guys - come back with something substantial. Let's get some balance and let's get going. Let's really get into NZO and let's buy, buy or sell, sell.

Balance

You holding any heads or options in NZO?

Closed Loop
06-09-2007, 07:45 PM
Not talking chickenfeed here - the valuations are out by a mile!

Let's read about Tui and Kupe being upgraded but where's the beef? Have they increased enough to offset the huge drop in PRC and oil prospects? What about the dilution effect of 80m more shares issued?

End quote by Balance.

The trouble with you Balance is that you are primarly unbalanced.The problem with this sort of discussion is that it always favours the knocker. As President Kennedy once famously said any donkey can kick down a door only a good carpenter can make one.In all the time you were knocking NZo,the stage was being set for the big finance companies to collapse.NZO was knocked to death a 1000 times but did you at any time in your supposed balanced financial views every set out to warn investers where real money was going to be lost big time.With NZO no one really lost anything.PRC has yet to be counted,the measure is down the track. We just did not win big time with the dry wells.Anyone who counted the win before it hatched has only themselves to blame.It would have been nice but it did not happen.That was all that was lost ---just opportunity to do better than we have.
Your knocking of NZO reminds me of the time before the 1984 election. Then we all were suppost to have a view on the abortion issue.Very emotional and when we were all tied up there plans were being laid to bring in GST.Not a single word was ever said about GST before the election.No one voted for it or against it.With the diversion the biggest tax change in NZ was finalised before anyone even stopped argueing about abortion
So were is your supposed balance in financial matters,or are you just the donkey kicking down the door.Can you show me where you have been balanced and also put other companies under the finanical mirocope .If so then you deserve all respect,but for now it seems only knocking to NZO.
You did not answer my question about your relationship with Sniper and Greymouth petroluem.

shasta
06-09-2007, 08:18 PM
Not talking chickenfeed here - the valuations are out by a mile!

Let's read about Tui and Kupe being upgraded but where's the beef? Have they increased enough to offset the huge drop in PRC and oil prospects? What about the dilution effect of 80m more shares issued?

End quote by Balance.

The trouble with you Balance is that you are primarly unbalanced.The problem with this sort of discussion is that it always favours the knocker. As President Kennedy once famously said any donkey can kick down a door only a good carpenter can make one.In all the time you were knocking NZo,the stage was being set for the big finance companies to collapse.NZO was knocked to death a 1000 times but did you at any time in your supposed balanced financial views every set out to warn investers where real money was going to be lost big time.With NZO no one really lost anything.PRC has yet to be counted,the measure is down the track. We just did not win big time with the dry wells.Anyone who counted the win before it hatched has only themselves to blame.It would have been nice but it did not happen.That was all that was lost ---just opportunity to do better than we have.
Your knocking of NZO reminds me of the time before the 1984 election. Then we all were suppost to have a view on the abortion issue.Very emotional and when we were all tied up there plans were being laid to bring in GST.Not a single word was ever said about GST before the election.No one voted for it or against it.With the diversion the biggest tax change in NZ was finalised before anyone even stopped argueing about abortion
So were is your supposed balance in financial matters,or are you just the donkey kicking down the door.Can you show me where you have been balanced and also put other companies under the finanical mirocope .If so then you deserve all respect,but for now it seems only knocking to NZO.
You did not answer my question about your relationship with Sniper and Greymouth petroluem.

Sniper/Sharebroker/Haka/Minder/Icehot/Balance & god knows how many more all have something in common? :rolleyes:

I wonder if ST/Vince will ever bring in IP detection software like HotCopper does...

bermuda
06-09-2007, 08:34 PM
Closed loop,
You're onto it mate.
From now on in we have got everything to gain but nothing to lose.

shasta
06-09-2007, 08:43 PM
Closed loop,
You're onto it mate.
From now on in we have got everything to gain but nothing to lose.

Yup - when our resident knocker has to go hunting Waaihoeks spreadsheets from yester year to find something to knock, the company must be going places.

He asked for a valuation, i gave him one & not a sausage back?

Im happy to argue with any idiot who wants to discount cash!

peterb
06-09-2007, 10:42 PM
By the way the total coal resource at PRC is estimated to be 94 million tonnes (from the Crown minerals website.) So the planned coal recovery is a very conservative estimate. Pike will have commissioning delays and technical problems, currency and commodity fluctuations, no doubt, but the coal is for sure.

Nitaa
07-09-2007, 05:29 AM
well if nita is not mistaken then i sense a turn around for nzo.

heres a little recap of late. all in all there was very little hype for hector and taranui. i guess hochysetter, mangaotoa to name a couple have made the longer term invesotr much wiser. some newbies may have been caught out though.

many people have had concerns abou the immediate vauluation of prc and its likely to cost a small fortune more before we get to break even point. but what we have now is production. only a few months ago, the snipers, balance, trendys of this world kept saying its a speccy yadi ya. now that a few short term traders or wannabes have been spat out by the last 25% drop in sp and about 65% drop in options i belive it is now time for the more serious investors to start getting their fingers in the nzo pie. whilst they may not be excited as the tenager in american pie i believe some are now sniffing based on fundamentals. sorry TA'a if i offended anyone there.

hers are call for balance.. i am just trying to see any downside in nzo over the next 6 months. well apart from a colapse in oil prices or some perverbial hits pike then there is basically not much down side at all. i will be looking with interest to see balance and of course duncan (but hes a nice guy) trying to rain on nzo's parade. i think it will be like pointing their weiner against the wind.

how low can nzo go? not much lower (15% max) over the next 12 months will plenty of unside. right now for the fundamentalist or clever acountants i say nzo is the go, finito, you know.

duncan macgregor
07-09-2007, 08:40 AM
Lets take an objective look at NZO from a fundamental point of view..
1, MARKETCAP, at $1-04 a share = $272,381,884.
2, 26 WEEK PRICE RANGE = 86c - $1-34.
I ask the following questions.
1, The pike coal mine will produce for thirty years giving NZO a dividend income over that period unless they sell their shares. 8% yeild on a dollar perhaps ?, or a capital gain.
2, The return on the oil fields less the cost of running the company less the costs of further exploration is likely to leave the share holders with what ?.
3,If in the end the options are worth converting the company will have more cash to burn at the cost of more fingers in the pie.
I would think that to many ifs and buts with no road map to direction, for a company that plays its cards to close to its chest for the average fundy. The sp will only trend up when the company comes out with future plans. We all know what they have, where they have been, but where are they intending to go is all that counts from a fundamental point of view. Macdunk

Zorbah
07-09-2007, 09:10 AM
,
Nymex and WTI oil above US$76 / barrel ...... should keep Tapis above US$80 !!

GO the big Tui PUMP-OUT !!!!!!!!!!!!


http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/09/05/afx4086861.html


Oil prices higher in Asian morning trade as OPEC seen maintaining quota

09.06.07, 12:20 AM ET

SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Oil prices were higher in Singapore morning trade Thursday on expectations that OPEC will maintain its existing production quota at a meeting next week.

Prices were also kept firmer by the Atlantic hurricane season which has entered its peak month of September.

At 10.05 am (0205 GMT), New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, was up 29 US cents at 76.02 dollars per barrel from 75.73 dollars in late US trade Wednesday.

Brent North Sea crude for October was up 21 cents at 74.55 dollars.

'OPEC doesn't seem to want to increase output and the market has gravitated higher,' said Tobin Gorey, a commodities strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

'There is a risk that demand may be higher in the fourth quarter,' he said, referring to the northern hemisphere winter, when heating oil demand typically rises.

OPEC is meeting in Vienna next week, and member Iran has said it is opposed to any increase in the cartel's production quota.

'Currently there is sufficient oil on the market,' Iran's caretaker Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari told reporters Wednesday ahead of the OPEC meeting on Sept 11.

'There have been forecasts of one or two hurricanes and this has caused prices to rise. But our position is clear -- there is a sufficient supply of oil on the market,' he said.

At its last regular meeting in March, OPEC decided to keep its official production quota at 25.8 million barrels of oil per day.

World oil prices rose sharply Tuesday after Qatar's energy minister said OPEC will not move next week to increase the cartel's oil output, despite calls for the organization to respond to tight global supplies and strong energy demand.

The US Energy Department will release its weekly inventory snapshot on Thursday, a day later than usual because Monday was a public holiday in the US. Analysts are predicting that US crude stocks fell again last week.

dsurf
07-09-2007, 10:21 AM
"Lets take an objective look at NZO from a fundamental point of view..
1, MARKETCAP, at $1-04 a share = $272,381,884.
2, 26 WEEK PRICE RANGE = 86c - $1-34.
I ask the following questions.
1, The pike coal mine will produce for thirty years giving NZO a dividend income over that period unless they sell their shares. 8% yeild on a dollar perhaps ?, or a capital gain.
2, The return on the oil fields less the cost of running the company less the costs of further exploration is likely to leave the share holders with what ?.
3,If in the end the options are worth converting the company will have more cash to burn at the cost of more fingers in the pie.
I would think that to many ifs and buts with no road map to direction, for a company that plays its cards to close to its chest for the average fundy. The sp will only trend up when the company comes out with future plans. We all know what they have, where they have been, but where are they intending to go is all that counts from a fundamental point of view. Macdunk"

can't help it macDunk
1/ why not 30% yield?
2/ cost of tui production $30 income = $~100 - fundamentally = a large profit
3/ agree with you

Bilo
07-09-2007, 03:23 PM
"Lets take an objective look at NZO from a fundamental point of view..
I ask the following questions.
1, The pike coal mine will produce for thirty years giving NZO a dividend income over that period unless they sell their shares. 8% yeild on a dollar perhaps ?, or a capital gain.
can't help it macDunk
1/ why not 30% yield?


The potential 30pc increase in coking coal price could at a dollar to the PRC share price (see my note on the PRC thread) and 35c to the NZO share price...

neopole
07-09-2007, 06:34 PM
i enjoyed reading the last 2 pages...... very interesting.
i see there are a few posters asking about the future of NZO and the possible direction that they might take.
we have seen NZO go from an exploration company with a share price ranging from 30c to 80c odd in the last 6 years before the recent period of drilling of last year. we have gone from explorer to producer, and 2 more production projects are soon to come on stream.
so........ then what?
my view is, they have to start returning value to the loyal shareholders, once they are looked after, (via dividend, or a constant and steady growth curve) then they can look at what to do with the revenue. one option is, once all 3 current projects are producing, is to then use some of that revenue to take on a exploration project on there own. as we know, technology is advancing at greater rates, and in 3 or 4 years time NZO should be in a position to look at another prospect somewhere........with better detection aperratus, maybe even looking at the great southern basin.
this company is leaving its teenage years behind, and is becoming mature.
the knocking/ramping of the sp today is meaningless in my view, unless you want out, or you need volitility to trade the stock.
long term is in good shape, and i know there is more prospecting on the horizon, but this time it will be paid for by company profits.
on an internation scale this country is under explored, and NZO has only been a spring chicken in this field, but the oportunities for NZO and NZ are very good.
those with time on there side cant go wrong with NZO, the rest should go and play with the other volitile stocks.
disc; i too was looking for a better result of NZO at this stage, but have change my stratagy to this stock and am know buying what ever i can.

upside_umop
07-09-2007, 08:53 PM
hey shasta,

about discounting, sure you cant discount what you already have in your pocket (cash), but tui is not yet all cash is it, nzo have not recieved everything in one go.

ie, they have cash flow streams for the next 18 years, so any cashflow in the future has to be discounted to time zero, which is now.

if we didnt discount, time value of money would mean nothing, but we all know that as investors, time is of the essence as its the opportunity cost that brings this discount about.

shasta
07-09-2007, 09:37 PM
hey shasta,

about discounting, sure you cant discount what you already have in your pocket (cash), but tui is not yet all cash is it, nzo have not recieved everything in one go.

ie, they have cash flow streams for the next 18 years, so any cashflow in the future has to be discounted to time zero, which is now.

if we didnt discount, time value of money would mean nothing, but we all know that as investors, time is of the essence as its the opportunity cost that brings this discount about.

I cant say ive seen 18 years for the Tui project before, where did you get that from?

upside_umop
07-09-2007, 10:42 PM
oh my bad, i got it into my head 18 years from somewhere. its more like 10 isnt it.
never the less, its still got to be discounted to today, at an appropriate rate..

shasta
07-09-2007, 10:47 PM
I cant say ive seen 18 years for the Tui project before, where did you get that from?

The Tui JV has the FPSO for a 5 year period with right of renewal for 5 further 1 year extentions.

I thought the Tui project was a 5 year project, & thus any NPV calculation will be distorted & therefore lower using the longer timeframe.

My contention, was & still is NZO is worth more than $1.03 right NOW!

manxman
07-09-2007, 11:27 PM
The Tui JV has the FPSO for a 5 year period with right of renewal for 5 further 1 year extentions.

I thought the Tui project was a 5 year project, & thus any NPV calculation will be distorted & therefore lower using the longer timeframe.

My contention, was & still is NZO is worth more than $1.03 right NOW!

Shasta
As the field ages, the water cut will rise, and with Umuroa limited to 120000 bpd total liquids, the oil flow will decrease. I think the original intent was to get the bulk of the oil out in five years, then decide, year by year, whether the oil yield justified the cost of keeping the FPSO on station.
With the rising price of oil, it now looks as though production may continue economically up to the tenth year, albeit at a low rate. I think that this is the primary reason for the first reserves upgrade. They haven't identified any more oil in place, but they can economically recover more of it at $80 than they would at $60.
So look forward to further upgrades as the actual oil in place is assessed, and they have some operational experience in handling the water cut. I imagine one could seriously screw up the oil/water yield by being too greedy. IMO there are still too many unknowns regarding rates of production at various stages in the life of the field to get much value from an NPV analysis, but its all starting to look rather sweet.
Mx

upside_umop
07-09-2007, 11:43 PM
i just looked up a few articles and the common consensus stating around the 10 year mark.
nzog presentation from may gives a reasonable estimate of expected flows of oil from tui.
-1.2 mmboe for 08, declining to 0.6, 0.4 and 0.3 for 09, 10 and 11 respectively. after this, around 0.2 mmboe looks to be constant.

these are estimates are very similar to what i have done the cashflow with NPV.


but yeah, agree that its a good share at these levels if you expect oil to remain at current prices.

shasta
08-09-2007, 12:01 AM
i just looked up a few articles and the common consensus stating around the 10 year mark.
nzog presentation from may gives a reasonable estimate of expected flows of oil from tui.
-1.2 mmboe for 08, declining to 0.6, 0.4 and 0.3 for 09, 10 and 11 respectively. after this, around 0.2 mmboe looks to be constant.

these are estimates are very similar to what i have done the cashflow with NPV.


but yeah, agree that its a good share at these levels if you expect oil to remain at current prices.

What if the US decides to make a pre-emptive strike against Iran?

Oil could easily surge past $US100 bbl, though i agree a consensus of around $US60bbl for the life of the Tui project appears reasonable.

IMO oil looks a better bet to hit $US100 bbl than drop to $US40bbl, with $US70 being the mid point.

I believe Tui will surpass the mid point overall as the first 2 years look set to reap around 50% of the total OIP.

Which brings me back to the NPV, most of the oil is upfront & looks to be sold at higher than forecast oil prices & with a falling $US to boot.

By Xmas we would have effectively paid back our share of the JV costs!

When i get a chance i'll post a more robus & realistic NPV for NZO.

the machine
08-09-2007, 01:33 AM
repayment of any debt for tui should almost be completed by the agm.

M

boysy
08-09-2007, 03:32 PM
oil up dollar down

Nitaa
08-09-2007, 06:47 PM
the worls isnt jumping because oil is around 70 plus per barrel. it wasnt long ago that many expected oil to colapse when it hit US$50 per barrel. it didnt happen and the world is desentitized at current prices. each benchmark of $80 or $90 will make headlines of course and again the world will keep comsuming. the $100 mark will be extremely significant and possibly cause a signifcant correction of 20% or more.

I am no expert but talk around the traps and has anybody changed their life so much because of the price of oil. not the people i know.

$100 per barrel is not if but when. maybe around that time then alternative fuels will be much more economical such as cng, lpg just like it was 20-25 years ago. petrol prices were 99.9 cents per litre back then so at todays prices for a dwindling supply is still relatively cheap.

oil imo has a long way to go in an uptrend and we aint seen nothing yet.

come on balance....waiting for you to say oil will drop to $10 or $15 per barrel.

Scuffer
08-09-2007, 07:00 PM
I think that the world still needs oil always will but the stranglehold that has been around the western worlds neck because of oil is going to loosen its grip we are moving into a different era and this is just the begining.Oil has always been a cheap way to access power but the world is being made to look at other alternatives and fast before the oil runs out we are now using it more than ever, imagine if every chinese indian and indonesian family had a car running on oil derived products.We have to find alternatives we have no choice expect oil to keep rising but I think it will be used more strategically in years to come, I haven't seen a Boeing 747 that can run on anything but aviation fuel yet.

digger
09-09-2007, 07:18 AM
Thanks Vince for getting me out of this circular Closed Loop the computer world sometimes operates in. Much of my problem was with XTRA. My wife said i was locked out do to my atrocious spelling.
Thanks everyone for not missing me as i never wanted a swell head anyways.

arjay
09-09-2007, 10:31 AM
Thanks everyone for not missing me as i never wanted a swell head anyways.


You been away Digger?

manxman
09-09-2007, 05:51 PM
Digger - We missed you, just like we miss Susan of Oriental Bay and the snails that Danny Boy was bringing down to the Pike Tunnel. Mrs Digger has a point about the spelling though. If we wrinklies don't keep up our standards this 4um wlg tkn ovr bi pepl hu tork txt.
Mx

digger
09-09-2007, 06:38 PM
You been away Digger?
Hi Arjay,not away just could not relog back in. Was very easy as Closed Loop not just could not relog as digger.
mx ,give me a couple of days to work out the text short hand.


The thing i am now most interested in is the fall off of oil pressure at Tui. When will it be first noticed and how will it compare to the expected modle.The same with the water cut.It will be in these two areas where the best estimate of Tui size will come. By AGM we should have a good idea of the expected full recovery volumn of oil,IMHO.

bermuda
09-09-2007, 08:17 PM
Hey Digger,
I didnt have a clue how to sign on . Had to get Vince to walk me through.

Digger you know what has happened? The price of coking coal is forecast to increase by 30% and no one seems to appreciate a most astonishing piece of news. 'Here we go again'

Great about Tui eh? Could easily go to 40 million barrels.

Hopefully NZO wont get slaughtered tomorrow. It ( the sub prime crisis has reared its head again ) Fortunately the oil price is way above forecast and I would predict the $NZ will get hammered again.

NZO is very well protected with excellent revenues and contracts in place should there be a market downturn.

boysy
09-09-2007, 09:36 PM
lets just see how many nervous nellys there are tomoro trying to get out tho as you point out lets just hope that dollar falls more than oil will.

arjay
09-09-2007, 10:01 PM
Another Hamilton poster recently said they'd been to see the movie "A Crude Awakening" at the Rialto and commented that there were only 4 other people in the theatre. I'm pleased to report that I saw it today at another cinema and the numbers of viewers in the theatre had swelled to 7. A rather sobering movie. The message I got is that we're running out of oil, it's gonna cause a crisis within a few short years, and no-one cares. An interesting angle is that politicians aren't ging to do anything that will make them unpopular (we know that already) so they won't address the issue until the electorate tells them they will support them if they take steps to deal with the problem. Problem is that the public don't care enough to make that phone-call to the politicians (except for the Greens perhaps, but they don't get supported by people with property to protect). In the same vein, I suspect that if tomorrow the sub-prime hammers the market again, the flock will head for bank deposits rather than investing in shares that become more valuable with increasing oil price and decreasing $NZ.

manxman
10-09-2007, 06:56 AM
TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Oil supplies are sufficient, with commercial inventories in industrialized countries higher than they've been for five years, but a lack of refining capacity is helping keep prices high, OPEC President Mohammed al-Hamli said on Sunday, according to Reuters.

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm shows diesel prices AU$15 above TAPIS crude while mogas has no margin at all. Anyone else recall a year or so ago when mogas was dearer than diesel?

The long and the short of it is that with severe refining capacity restraints on high spec diesel, the premium on light sweet crudes should hold or increase. (and refinery profits will gravitate to those refineries which can make sweet diesel from heavy sour crudes - NZR is doing :D:D:D)

Looking forward to the AGM when we should get an interesting update.

Mx

digger
10-09-2007, 07:12 PM
Another Hamilton poster recently said they'd been to see the movie "A Crude Awakening" at the Rialto and commented that there were only 4 other people in the theatre. I'm pleased to report that I saw it today at another cinema and the numbers of viewers in the theatre had swelled to 7. A rather sobering movie. The message I got is that we're running out of oil, it's gonna cause a crisis within a few short years, and no-one cares. An interesting angle is that politicians aren't ging to do anything that will make them unpopular (we know that already) so they won't address the issue until the electorate tells them they will support them if they take steps to deal with the problem. Problem is that the public don't care enough to make that phone-call to the politicians (except for the Greens perhaps, but they don't get supported by people with property to protect). In the same vein, I suspect that if tomorrow the sub-prime hammers the market again, the flock will head for bank deposits rather than investing in shares that become more valuable with increasing oil price and decreasing $NZ.

Hi Arjay,it was me ,wife and two accidental people at the first screening of Crude Awakening.Just thought i would point out that you have increased the first crowd by 25%,where you said only 4 other people in theatre.There was 4 in total. The other couple were going to the movies and did not know what the movie was about.He found it very interesting and she thought for a sat nite it was not a pleasent movie. A bit worrting and chose not to think about it.The roads after the movie were blocked solid with traffic from the rugby shield match.
Such is the state of awareness on peak oil in NZ. I say about another 3 years and the general population will not be able to hide from the problem any longer.Then it will be the Crude Awakening in the pocket book. Better hang on to those NZO shares.

Zorbah
10-09-2007, 09:29 PM
.
Saw the Crude Awakening movie at the Academy this evening -- 4 people all told. Its crazy, everybody should see this movie, especially politicians. After the movie I suggested to the guy running the Academy that politicians should see it for free --- he was not impressed.

Movie was really sobering and thought-provoking. Has amazing historical footage as well as up to date analysis by people like Matt Simmons and Colin Campbell, as well as ex OPEC officials.

Simmons was credited as an energy banker and an "advisor to Geroge W Bush". Movie also featured a republican Senator who is very concerned, so its not all pink liberal "commie" propagander as the some of the conservative voices would have us believe.

Here is a link for the movie:

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/index2.html

digger
11-09-2007, 08:54 AM
Now that Zobra and Arjay then Bermuda and a small handful of others have seen Crude Awakening,that will mean that all that really do not need to see the movie have and those that urgently need to will just remain in the dark. I think only a very high oil price will wake people up.
WTI at 78.5 this morning after some more explosions in Mexico,so maybe the Crude Awakening is not far away.Also today OPEC will announce the expected no increase in output after there meeting.The world will confused unable to increase for will not increase.The difference is hugh but for another 6 months or so we can go on believing all is well with oil supply----if only the Saudis would do as they are told.

Zorbah
11-09-2007, 08:56 AM
.
Nymex back over US$78 / barrel !!

One good huricane in the GoM and US$80 will be breached.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html


Opec quotas likely to remain unchanged:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=ayXkftWBNe3E&refer=energy

manxman
11-09-2007, 09:02 AM
Looking at an old Economist. Oil was $15/barrel in May 1999. Its gone up fivefold without making a discernable change in consumption habits. Somewhere there is a big fan - waiting...

duncan macgregor
11-09-2007, 09:23 AM
Looking at an old Economist. Oil was $15/barrel in May 1999. Its gone up fivefold without making a discernable change in consumption habits. Somewhere there is a big fan - waiting... The price of oil wont make to much difference to your oil shares. The companies will be spending more finding less, or do you think they will stand still until they go under with nothing left to sell?. The various GOVTS will tax the last oil to the hilt. The shareholders will be left as usual in the end with slim pickings. Most of the oil is undiscovered in the artic and antartic regions of the world so look forward to a bit of global warming to uncover that lot. Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we need to really be concerned. With NZO we know what they have got, but whats next is more to the point, where to from here?. Macdunk

bermuda
11-09-2007, 09:25 AM
There is no doubt supplies are tightening and judging from the lack of interest from the public to a 'crude awakening' life will go on as normal until one day in the not too distant future when Bush tries to enforce an oil law in Iraq. The Iraq's will go on strike and the price of oil will climb and there may be possible shortages. i.e. no fuel at the gas station.

That will be a big wake up call but we will get by for a while as even a 10% reduction in consumption will provide the world with a 8.6 million barrel per day cushion. Everyone can do it but can the Chinese and Indians? So sooner or later this cushion will be removed and so the cycle will repeat itself. The trouble is it is going to take 15-20 years hard endeavour to come up with alternatives.

We need to act now and not just look at weak alternatives like biofuel from food crops which is an absolute waste of areable land.

The real answer lies in reducing our population before a lack of energy reduces it for us.

Good to see NZO putting $$$ in the bank at record prices and a better exchange rate. If the forecast 30% increase in coking coal comes off then expect a jump in PRC's fortunes and a corresponding lift in NZO.

A lot of 2nd to 3rd world countries have a staggering 5-6 children. We have to educate the world.

shasta
11-09-2007, 09:40 AM
The price of oil wont make to much difference to your oil shares. The companies will be spending more finding less, or do you think they will stand still until they go under with nothing left to sell?. The various GOVTS will tax the last oil to the hilt. The shareholders will be left as usual in the end with slim pickings. Most of the oil is undiscovered in the artic and antartic regions of the world so look forward to a bit of global warming to uncover that lot. Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we need to really be concerned. With NZO we know what they have got, but whats next is more to the point, where to from here?. Macdunk

Macdunk

You seem to be contradicting yourself, on one hand you are saying an oil producer isnt bound by the price of oil, & therefore FX (primarily $US rates?)

Yet, you say Nickel/Zinc etc stocks move based on the DOW, & commodity prices & again FX rates, ie they do make a difference?

There is a correlation between the two, & remember the tax/royalty regime for projects like Kupe is on better terms than "normal".

Govt's have had to reduce the taxes/royalties to stimulate exploration activity to some extent.

Dr_Who
11-09-2007, 11:00 AM
Now that Zobra and Arjay then Bermuda and a small handful of others have seen Crude Awakening,.

I may go see it this week. Have to take the Mrs and not the mistress this time. :p

Where is it shown? It is not at the Rialto Newmarket.

digger
11-09-2007, 11:40 AM
I may go see it this week. Have to take the Mrs and not the mistress this time. :p

Where is it shown? It is not at the Rialto Newmarket.

Arjay and i saw it at the Rialto hamilton. Zobrah probably in Auckland somewhere.

arjay
11-09-2007, 12:06 PM
I think it's finished at the Rialto in Hamilton Digger. I saw it up the road at Victoria's (you can have a beer there!).

Good points Bermuda. I guess many people will keep paying higher petrol prices to maintain their car addiction (at least until the grocery money runs out), however high petrol costs is one thing - a fuel shortage is another. Fuel queues, rationing and the return of things like car-less days will wake people up. The most sobering aspect of A Crude Awakening to me was not related to transport fuels, but other uses for oil. They made the point that the eath's human carrying capacity (now nearly 7 billion) without cheap oil to make cheap food (fertilizers) is around 1-1.5 billion. That leave's 5 billion people to.......(well, you know). Still, I guess the rest of the planet will breathe a sigh of relief. Unless of course certain world leaders try to grab a bigger cut of the diminishing pie and throw a few bombs around.

Lion
11-09-2007, 12:15 PM
ASX up 4, and there's a new announcement. Good news maybe? Can someone post it, I can't get it yet.

Edit - here it is, listed as price sensitive by AWE but not PPP or NZO

AWE Ltd (“AWE”) reports that the Taranui-1 well is being plugged and abandoned and
at 0600 hours today was completing operations prior to the release of the drilling rig
from the Taranui location.
During the week, a comprehensive suite of wireline logs were successfully completed,
including pressure testing and fluid sampling of both the Kapuni F and D Sands. A
small volume of oil was recovered from the Kapuni D sands during this sampling
programme. The data is still being reviewed, but initial indications are that these
zones will not be commercially significant.
Following completion of the abandonment operations at Taranui, the rig will move to
commence operations on West Cape-1 in PEP 38481

Crypto Crude
11-09-2007, 12:22 PM
mackdadunk-
1....The price of oil wont make to much difference to your oil shares.
2.....The companies will be spending more finding less, or do you think they will stand still until they go under with nothing left to sell?.
3.....The various GOVTS will tax the last oil to the hilt.
4..... The shareholders will be left as usual in the end with slim pickings.
5....Most of the oil is undiscovered in the artic and antartic regions of the world so look forward to a bit of global warming to uncover that lot.
6.... Lots of water to flow under the bridge before we need to really be concerned. With NZO we know what they have got, but whats next is more to the point, where to from here?. Macdunk

1...wanna beat... a supply side constraint could change NZO dramatically... oil $100 -> how many barrels net to NZO a few million right... say 4m.... whats $30*4million mackdadunk... (very rough calc)...
2... Yes companies will be spending more as industry costs rise due to demand increase as price of oil rises..., but technology improvement is increasing success rate of oil stirkes to offset some of this, as well as higher oil prices decreasing project risk... shell, and spec oilers will be hit the most by rising industry costs...
its no different for any other industry that faces increased costs..

3...yes Tax is a component of This industry, as oil creates externalities...
no different for other industries
also depends which country you are in as to how you get treated... NZ govt has made it attractive enough for the oil majors to attack the GSB....
4....Somehow I dont think that I will be left with slim pickings... depends on what stocks you hold...theres big growth plays in this industry...
5....Yes global warming is an issue, and many see gas as the future of this industry...im not debating global warming with you MD, you never listen...
:D
6.... As you know mr mackdadunk, NZO is in the process of getting 3 projects up and running... and now NZO is down to two projects to get kick started.... The First project - Tui, was a major success, reserves upgrades, full flow rates with little problem other than a slight delay...
... NZO now has solid cashflow and how they grow from here is anyones guess, But NZO DONOT need to gain other assets, new projects to get SP growth... NZO has the growth channel set and exploration success from here on in is a bonus, NZO will sail when Pike gets sorted... Dividends are a major issue and I will be raising my points at the AGM if I go... NZO should be looking for a strategy of gaining acerage and farming down big chunks and be free carried, or close to it....
three diversifed producing projects will make NZO a lucurative investment...the ones that spot it early will be better off... markets will determine what happens
NZO will be a long term cashcow.......Pike is discounting NZO big time...
....
Mackdadunk, recently you have been posting where your not really having ago at NZO but your referring to the oil industry as a whole...And you dont sound like a fan of it after getting burnt by NZO... yourve been scared away by one oiler that didnot go in your way of thinking at the time, and now you understand more about how companies re-rate .... dont let that scare you away mate... making a stance against the oil industry is a bad move on your part...
lata...
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor
11-09-2007, 12:59 PM
SHREWDY, I noticed you were smart enough to get out of NZO even although it was a little late in the play. You managed to join me on the other side of the ditch to take advantage of our over priced dollar. I dont care if a company drills for oil or manufactures atomic weapons as long as the sp trends up if my money is in it. I Find the miners are easier to predict, and just as volatile, with less chance of coming a gutser as spec oilers.
Interested in your opinion on the options. I say its pass the parcel at the end, i cant see the sp increase by a third in ten months unless NZO start a big buy back to raise the share price. A good TA exit strategy would have scored you a big win with NZO, make sure you follow PHAEDRUSES exit system with your CUE. Look forward to meeting you again sometime, dont get to hung up in any company. They are only there to make us money no more and no less. MACDUNK

Lion
11-09-2007, 01:35 PM
So, they've spent a whole week at Taranui, (and still not finished), since last week's announcement. Running further tests. Probably not commercial quantities of oil they say, yet they spent a lot of time there making sure. Expensive time - let's hope they found some useful data to add to the big picture of the whole area.

winner69
11-09-2007, 01:42 PM
SHREWDY, Interested in your opinion on the options. I say its pass the parcel at the end, i cant see the sp increase by a third in ten months ......


..... needs a half more .... ie 50% increase from today

dsurf
11-09-2007, 02:06 PM
No DaDunk needs 100% to get the ood's down to his price.

duncan macgregor
11-09-2007, 02:07 PM
..... needs a half more .... ie 50% increase from today
JEEZE I was only taking easy on my mate SHREWDY. If you work it out from the other end $1-50 against a dollar today it is a third. But regardless of my bad mathematics, what do you reckon the parcel is worth in ten months time?. Unless they buy back the shares to raise the price the options have had it. The question is have they got enough up top to work it out?. I dont think they will have the brains to manipulate the price then sell back to the gullable at profit. Macdunk

winner69
11-09-2007, 02:19 PM
JEEZE I was only taking easy on my mate SHREWDY. If you work it out from the other end $1-50 against a dollar today it is a third. But regardless of my bad mathematics, what do you reckon the parcel is worth in ten months time?. Unless they buy back the shares to raise the price the options have had it. The question is have they got enough up top to work it out?. I dont think they will have the brains to manipulate the price then sell back to the gullable at profit. Macdunk

well said me old mate ..... I was surprised that when shrewdie sold out of everything he kept his ODs for a while .... didn't seem to make sense

But you never know ..... the ODs might just be a good thing .... maybe

duncan macgregor
11-09-2007, 02:34 PM
well said me old mate ..... I was surprised that when shrewdie sold out of everything he kept his ODs for a while .... didn't seem to make sense

But you never know ..... the ODs might just be a good thing .... maybe You never answered the question C-MON be a winner sixtiyniner what are the options worth on the last day?. My old mate SHREWDY tried to teach him how to strut like MVT, hopeless case mate, hopeless, but he will come right with a good boot up the backside. Shot over to AUS dumpted his bundle here, the money is still worth something over there. Macdunk

dsurf
11-09-2007, 02:39 PM
Why don't NZO release the following type announcement.

"We are making a lot of money. We know that PRC is seriously undervalued. We are going to increase our stake by buying on market up to 5% of PRC."

The PRC price would have to increase given only 128K on the offer & then the NZO price would follow & then the ood's would too

duncan macgregor
11-09-2007, 02:50 PM
Why don't NZO release the following type announcement.

"We are making a lot of money. We know that PRC is seriously undervalued. We are going to increase our stake by buying on market up to 5% of PRC."

The PRC price would have to increase given only 128K on the offer & then the NZO price would follow & then the ood's would too I really dont want to disillussion you but if they did that, then bastards like me would buy up big then sell back to the blue eyed brigade. The truth is nobody knows the value of PRC until the numbers come out. The traders would take you to the cleaners mate. MACDUNK

Crypto Crude
11-09-2007, 03:06 PM
mackdadunk,
I hung onto the ods Initially because I was going to get out at the top of Hector, and thats what I told others here and around.... But at the top of hector ODs were 23cents and they had been much higher than 30cents at one stage (34,34?)... OD's were 23-4 cents just before final announcement for Hector.... so I felt that I may just aswell hold through, and then ODs fell to below 20cents that day after ann came through... Tui first production was delayed, And I thought Tui first production would offset bad hector and Taranui drill because it is a monster asset of NZO's....When I realised that the reratings had come and SP wasnt moving then I sold, and the reserves upgrades announcement made no impact on the fact that it came after id sold...... First production ann was made on one of the worst market days of the year...I showed my inexperience with my portfolio when the market pealed like banana, I admit that....asset protection was more important than if I was right or wrong...
.... I can still soldier along and build...

and right now had market held strong,....
NZO would be around $1.3 where I said it would be... Id be sitting on a 2bagger here cackling... In the end I got quarter of that return from nzood...
the whole re-rating process that I felt I understood was blurred by the market conditions, and the markets no confidence with NZO made it worse, Pike compounded when that flopped....so maybe Market looked at AWE for direction of NZO on how to rerate TUI... AWE barely moved... AWE has its own project problems and is not appropriate for guidance of NZO and maybe market didnot understand this...
.....This 3 project company of NZO is misunderstood ...The lead up to Hector, SP should have been real strong with no selling off and buyers chasing, but it was getting sold and falling...In the end the market hasnot given a stuff about Tui production and SP and nzood is not much more than what it was when I was first raging bull to buy this one..... Pike is discounting NZO further too...
....
I do believe that ODs will be in the money next year as long as the NZX50 is around 4000-4500+ points.... It will be no problem if market is convinced that production at pike is a dead cert... and first prduction begins before option conversion, it may take one big buyer such as an institution or the Indians buying in the end to get the ODs over the line... Its a dammn big call... And I did make a beat with you mackdadunk that you never replied to... and that was if nzood are converted in the money then you would come to the national convention?
your coming anyway, why not just make it into abit of a story...:D...
:cool:
.^sc

STRAT
11-09-2007, 03:13 PM
Hi Fellas just out......


11/09/2007
MINE REL: 1310 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited MINE: NZO: NZOG'S TARANUI-1 DRILLING REPORT New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd ("NZOG") reports that the Taranui-1 well is being plugged and abandoned and at 0600 hours today was completing operations prior to the release of the drilling rig from the Taranui location. During the week, a comprehensive suite of wireline logs were successfully completed, including pressure testing and fluid sampling of both the Kapuni F and D Sands. A small volume of oil was recovered from the Kapuni D sands during this sampling programme. The data is still being reviewed, but initial indications are that these zones will not be commercially significant.

duncan macgregor
11-09-2007, 04:19 PM
SHREWDY, Its not if this happened or nobody understands the company, all that matters is will the sp rise or fall. I dont give a damn about a company, they are only employed by me to show a rise in the share price. I couldnt care less what they get up to, as long as the sp trends up, and if not i dump them. Miners oil companies whatever, i only buy what i think will trend up. We have to meet again sometime so that i can give you some more lessons on strutting you havent quite mastered that. You still never said what you think the options are worth at pass the parcel time. Your old mate Macdunk

Crypto Crude
11-09-2007, 04:39 PM
mackdadunk-
1.......Its not if this happened or nobody understands the company, all that matters is will the sp rise or fall. I dont give a damn about a company, they are only employed by me to show a rise in the share price. I couldnt care less what they get up to, as long as the sp trends up, and if not i dump them.
2....Miners oil companies whatever, i only buy what i think will trend up.
3....We have to meet again sometime so that i can give you some more lessons on strutting you havent quite mastered that.
4....You still never said what you think the options are worth at pass the parcel time. Your old mate Macdunk

1.....you should have bought nzood when I said then huh..many moons ago you seemed to care alot more about the disclosure principle rather than company performance......
2.... How come you never buy any oilers then? DO you not think they will trend up?
3.... yes, we can meet when you lose the nzood conversion beat, and you make your way to the NC... then we can go toe to toe again... haha...
4...You have said before that it is already pace the parcel time !... My screen is saying 10.7cents per nzood.... haha...thats what they are worth... haha
:p....
can you define pace the parcel time for me and then I will reply with an honest answer
its not at christmas is it?
:D
.^sc

digger
11-09-2007, 04:57 PM
So, they've spent a whole week at Taranui, (and still not finished), since last week's announcement. Running further tests. Probably not commercial quantities of oil they say, yet they spent a lot of time there making sure. Expensive time - let's hope they found some useful data to add to the big picture of the whole area.

Lion you raise a very good point about the time at Taranui. I am greatly incouraged that many tests were run.It hints to me that TUI may have more oil in it somewhere between Pateke to Taranui. Regardless of the market reaction i find this result much improved on last week. This will be another good point for the AGM.

dsurf
11-09-2007, 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsurf
Why don't NZO release the following type announcement.

"We are making a lot of money. We know that PRC is seriously undervalued. We are going to increase our stake by buying on market up to 5% of PRC."

The PRC price would have to increase given only 128K on the offer & then the NZO price would follow & then the ood's would too

Quote by MacDunk
I really dont want to disillussion you but if they did that, then bastards like me would buy up big then sell back to the blue eyed brigade. The truth is nobody knows the value of PRC until the numbers come out. The traders would take you to the cleaners mate. MACDUNK

Er no, as always - please float back down to earth - NZO are announcing then bastards like you would buy up big - then you can hold the parcel til NZO start buying at thier leisure.

I am not involved - just pointing out that it would send a positive message by NZO for pee all $

Zorbah
11-09-2007, 05:03 PM
.
China's August Crude Oil Imports Jump 19% as Economy Expands

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=amaHu17Xw8D0&refer=energy

Lion
11-09-2007, 05:04 PM
Hi Fellas just out......

(NZOG announcement)


Ahem . . . see my post of 3 hours ago!

"Timing is everything" ??

Balance
11-09-2007, 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsurf
Why don't NZO release the following type announcement.

"We are making a lot of money. We know that PRC is seriously undervalued. We are going to increase our stake by buying on market up to 5% of PRC."

The PRC price would have to increase given only 128K on the offer & then the NZO price would follow & then the ood's would too

Quote by MacDunk
I really dont want to disillussion you but if they did that, then bastards like me would buy up big then sell back to the blue eyed brigade. The truth is nobody knows the value of PRC until the numbers come out. The traders would take you to the cleaners mate. MACDUNK

Er no, as always - please float back down to earth - NZO are announcing then bastards like you would buy up big - then you can hold the parcel til NZO start buying at thier leisure.

I am not involved - just pointing out that it would send a positive message by NZO for pee all $

You could not have got your assumptions more wrong.

NZO would come across as the biggest idiot of all times as NZO cannot just buy 5%.

Under the takeover code, NZO would need to buy up to at least 50% and launch a formal bid.

There will be plenty of disappointed PRC shareholders very happy to sell out to NZO at $1.15.

Watch NZO share price drop like a lead balloon.

shasta
11-09-2007, 08:19 PM
Balance

I'll ask you again, as you have a tendency to come on "knock a poster" spread your poison & run...

Are you holding any NZO/NZOOD/PRC?

Balance
11-09-2007, 08:33 PM
Balance

I'll ask you again, as you have a tendency to come on "knock a poster" spread your poison & run...

Are you holding any NZO/NZOOD/PRC?

Correcting someone who is so wrong with his/her assumptions is 'knock a poster' ? More like stopping him/her from serious misjudgements and errors, don't you agree?

I like reading this thread - it's a study in human behaviour and if I can point out the errors of the ways of some of the postings, I am happy to help out.

shasta
11-09-2007, 08:43 PM
Correcting someone who is so wrong with his/her assumptions is 'knock a poster' ? More like stopping him/her from serious misjudgements and errors, don't you agree?

I like reading this thread - it's a study in human behaviour and if I can point out the errors of the ways of some of the postings, I am happy to help out.

What so you're above any criticism yourself?

Who made you the authority on NZO, that you can point out errors?

You asked for a valuation a few pages back, i gave you one, no comment, why?

I don't see any disclosure anywhere from you, why?

You show up only to highlight bad news, & put your spin on it, why?

Try using some "balance' like your username suggests...

Do Sharebroker/Minder/Haka/Icehot/Sniper mean anything to you?

If you want ANY credibility on this thread, try answering some questions.

We all know the risks involved when investing in O&G companies, as well as coal companies, its the risk v reward we are after.

boysy
11-09-2007, 08:51 PM
well said shasta balance put you money where your mouth and explain to us your superior investments ?

bermuda
11-09-2007, 09:21 PM
Well I am still awaiting as to why Balance wants to send the first shipment of coking coal from Taranaki to Newcastle.

Sometimes a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Cmon Balance tell me it was a slip of the tongue. I mean we can have our fun on this thread but when it comes to facts let's get it right. yeah Right.

I am off for a month so all the best to all.Including you Balance.

shane_m
11-09-2007, 09:24 PM
why is it going to Newcastle? I thought it was going to Mumbai?

steve fleming
11-09-2007, 09:42 PM
hmmm...no comment on the new Huntleys report on NZO out today?

Confirms FY08 NPAT est of $37m. Puts NZO on a PE of 6.5.

Looks OK value in my book.

shasta
11-09-2007, 09:53 PM
hmmm...no comment on the new Huntleys report on NZO out today?

Confirms FY08 NPAT est of $37m. Puts NZO on a PE of 6.5.

Looks OK value in my book.

Steve

I dont think it has been released in the NZ media as yet...

I take it, its a pay subscription service, rather than a broker report of NZO?

digger
11-09-2007, 10:12 PM
You could not have got your assumptions more wrong.

NZO would come across as the biggest idiot of all times as NZO cannot just buy 5%.

Under the takeover code, NZO would need to buy up to at least 50% and launch a formal bid.

There will be plenty of disappointed PRC shareholders very happy to sell out to NZO at $1.15.

Watch NZO share price drop like a lead balloon.

Actually for the first time ever i find balance has posted a balanced and factual set of true statements.Has balance converted to the truth or is this just an unfortunate one off,never to be repeated again slip in his charactor.Every sentence is correct and true.

Mr Tommy
12-09-2007, 07:33 AM
Kupe gas field costs skyrocket
By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Wednesday, 12 September 2007

Email a Friend | Printable View | Have Your Say
ROBERT KITCHIN/Dominion Post
FULL STEAM AHEAD: The oil and gas market is overheated with lots of projects, and suppliers are spoilt for choice, Kupe project director Peter Ashford says.

The giant Kupe gas project in Taranaki will cost 10 per cent more than the original estimate of $980 million, as world prices for equipment and hire of drilling rigs rocket up in an overheated market.


Weather delays could also add to rising costs in the next six months, as the project moves into its big offshore campaign, with a well drilling rig due to arrive next month.

The Kupe gas field is about 30 kilometres off the south Taranaki coast, and the project also involves a big processing plant onshore, near Hawera.

The world oil industry was still catching up with hurricane damage done to equipment in the Gulf of Mexico two years ago, and cost increases since then had been huge, Kupe project director Peter Ashford said yesterday.

"The oil and gas market is very overheated with a lot of projects, and suppliers are spoilt for choice. Suppliers name their price and their schedule."

There were few projects on schedule or budget and Kupe was suffering in a "challenging environment", with prices rising by the day, Mr Ashford said.

In 2005, Kupe was expected to cost $800 million, but a year earlier the cost was put at $400 million.

Australian company Origin Energy is operator of the project and a 50 per cent shareholder in Kupe, with state-owned power company Genesis holding 31 per cent.

Origin also owns 51 per cent of Contact Energy. Origin is presently trying to raise $200 million from New Zealand investors through the issue of preference shares.

Gas from the Kupe field is expected to flow from the middle of 2009. Reserves are estimated at 250 petajoules. Kupe will be big enough to supply about 15 per cent of New Zealand's present total gas demand.

However, Kupe is just a fraction of the size of the massive Maui gas field and its estimated 3562PJ.

While Kupe will not comment on the price for its gas, Pohokura gas was said by industry experts to cost about $6.50 a gigajoule - about 2.5 times more than the original cheap Maui gas. A petajoule is one million gigajoules, indicating 170PJ could be worth about $1 billion.

Kupe locked in the cost of the well drilling rig at the end of 2005, and some other equipment in the middle of last year, when the final decision to go ahead with the project was made, but other costs have risen.

When the partners moved to putting in final orders, prices had risen by as much as 25 per cent. In other cases, some installation equipment had been locked in for half the present day cost, Mr Ashford said.

The project cost could go even higher, if the weather slowed down planned offshore work.

Hoop
12-09-2007, 08:50 AM
Short article from todays Market Watch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- October crude climbed 74 cents to close at $78.23 a barrel Tuesday, marking the highest closing level for the front-month contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. OPEC agreed to raise actual production levels by 500,000 barrels per day and lift the cartel's quota to 27.2 million barrels per day as of Nov. 1, according to news reports. But Charles Perry, chairman of Perry Management said "just about everyone is skeptical of OPEC increasing their production very much" with many members near their peak production.

Seems the world is a little short of oil at the moment.
...and the Northern winter yet to come..

dsurf
12-09-2007, 08:54 AM
Balance - there is a word for overly pedantic people who concentrate on words instead of the message - okay PRC borrow off NZO & then buy 5% - hope you make money being right - go on - have a go.

Toddy
12-09-2007, 10:53 AM
Re Kupe cost blowout.

Shareholders can live with the current cost increases. However, surely there is a risk to NZO option holders that the project leaders (Origin) come out with an unwelcome budget update just weeks before the NZO option exercise date.

If this is coupled with further teething problems down at PRC then NZO manangement would be faced with an almost impossible task of convincing the market that the NZO SP is worth $1.50 a share or more.

Its all about the timing, and unfortunately the exercise date for the od's is a year too early.

arjay
12-09-2007, 11:31 AM
You could be right Toddy, in which case maybe NZO could think about adding a year onto the life of the ODs and adjust to exercise price upward by a few cents to compensate for risk. They did this with the OB's some years back so it can be done.

sideline
12-09-2007, 12:16 PM
Aspect Huntley have updated their report on NZO, reiterate accumulate rating.

digger
12-09-2007, 01:43 PM
You could be right Toddy, in which case maybe NZO could think about adding a year onto the life of the ODs and adjust to exercise price upward by a few cents to compensate for risk. They did this with the OB's some years back so it can be done.
That is my thinking two Arjay.Since the OD's were issued some of the events have taken place but a lot of them have been delayed.In fact only 1 of the 3 projects will be up and running by then.These delays are beyond the company but giving the options a longer life as with the OB's is the way to go.. Another point of discussion for the AGM.

winner69
12-09-2007, 01:52 PM
Balance - there is a word for overly pedantic people who concentrate on words instead of the message - okay PRC borrow off NZO & then buy 5% - hope you make money being right - go on - have a go.

maybe you should start buying up to 5% of PRC yourself dsurf ..... achieve the same result

shane_m
12-09-2007, 10:18 PM
any one know the Tui gas lift cost per barrel ?

digger
13-09-2007, 06:48 AM
The WTI price passed US$80 a barrel,but of coa-rse that is with a purchaseing US of about half what it used to be.Even the Kiwi went up against the US in last 24 hours.We still have some exposure to the Us if the WTI goes above 85 which i think it will.I do not well understand this forward cover thing and when it kicks in. The confusion is around
collapsing US dollar,but it looks like we will lose on a small number of barrells[about 350 thousand from memory.

dsurf
13-09-2007, 07:59 AM
maybe you should start buying up to 5% of PRC yourself dsurf ..... achieve the same result

Can you lend me the money - I would love to.

boysy
13-09-2007, 09:13 AM
is tapis keeping its premium over the other typres of oil ?

Zorbah
13-09-2007, 11:08 AM
.
Yesterday's Tapis price was nudging US$82 / barrel

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm

Todays Nymex oil price is up approximately US$1.5 compared to yesterdays price so I'm expecting Tapis to be up again today -- we will see today's price tomorrow when the the AIP graph is updated for Tapis !!

For current Nymex, Brent and WTI see Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

shasta
13-09-2007, 06:34 PM
Aspect Huntley have updated their report on NZO, reiterate accumulate rating.

If someone doesnt wake up & give NZO a kick, a predator will start accumulating it!

Meanwhile another week has by gone & approx another 6250bopd x 7 = 43750 barrels to NZO.

Say @ $US70 & (NZ/USD 0.70) = $NZ100 barrel (nice round number...)

Revenue/Cashflow of $NZ4,375,000 per week!:eek:

Tinker with the figures to suit people, but its happening, every week the cheques roll in...:D

boysy
13-09-2007, 07:06 PM
and on a current market cap of 280 mill including options

digger
13-09-2007, 07:27 PM
If someone doesnt wake up & give NZO a kick, a predator will start accumulating it!

Meanwhile another week has by gone & approx another 6250bopd x 7 = 43750 barrels to NZO.

Say @ $US70 & (NZ/USD 0.70) = $NZ100 barrel (nice round number...)

Revenue/Cashflow of $NZ4,375,000 per week!:eek:

Tinker with the figures to suit people, but its happening, every week the cheques roll in...:D

shasta,your nz100 a barrel should be more like 115-120
that makes over 5 million a week if in fact they are doing close to 45,000 to 50000 a day from TUI.

shasta
13-09-2007, 07:38 PM
shasta,your nz100 a barrel should be more like 115-120
that makes over 5 million a week if in fact they are doing close to 45,000 to 50000 a day from TUI.

Nice upside potential aye?

I used $NZ100 a barrel as a conservative estimate in case our resident NZO knocker comes out from under his rock...

Was using 12.5% of 50,000bopd in my example, last figure that was announced was 47,000 so i figure they'd have sorted it out by now!

Roughly $NZ5m a week then, equates to around $60m per quarter...

Now, wheres that re-rate gone again? :confused:

Mr Tommy
14-09-2007, 07:39 AM
The Dominion Post | Friday, 14 September 2007

Motorists are being warned to expect further fuel price increases as oil prices hit a record high of $US80 ($NZ112) a barrel.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/4200948a10.html

Nitaa
14-09-2007, 08:11 AM
nzo's call options are likley to kick in at some time. i think the figure was around the 84 or 85 mark.

balance. i guess you figure the put options will kick in any time soon aye. lol

Hoop
14-09-2007, 08:25 AM
Nice upside potential aye?

I used $NZ100 a barrel as a conservative estimate in case our resident NZO knocker comes out from under his rock...

Was using 12.5% of 50,000bopd in my example, last figure that was announced was 47,000 so i figure they'd have sorted it out by now!

Roughly $NZ5m a week then, equates to around $60m per quarter...

Now, wheres that re-rate gone again? :confused:

Poor perception of NZO management is the problem, methinks.
Very easy for that $60M/quarter to be worth $0M/quarter, espec if they pour it down a duster.

I think this stock will re-rate in an instant with positive news on what they are to do with that money.

Being an NZO shareholder I love this oil price surge :D:D:D....oh hang on ..damn.. have to fill the car for the weekend :(:(:(

Nitaa
14-09-2007, 08:46 AM
.

Being an NZO shareholder I love this oil price surge :D:D:D....oh hang on ..damn.. have to fill the car for the weekend :(:(:( thats a pertinent point.

sideline
14-09-2007, 09:54 AM
nzo's call options are likley to kick in at some time. i think the figure was around the 84 or 85 mark.

balance. i guess you figure the put options will kick in any time soon aye. lol
I think the call options have already expired. Only some puts extend to 2010.
Perhaps BWR could clarify.

shasta
14-09-2007, 10:02 AM
nzo's call options are likley to kick in at some time. i think the figure was around the 84 or 85 mark.

balance. i guess you figure the put options will kick in any time soon aye. lol

The actual call option figure was $86 :cool:

boysy
14-09-2007, 03:40 PM
should be an interesting agm thios year thats for sure

digger
14-09-2007, 04:03 PM
Friday, 14 September 2007
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand

THE July commissioning of the $US269 million Tui Area oil fields development off Taranaki, New Zealand threw up some surprises with one well initially failing to produce and the expected high water cut not eventuating, according to Australian Worldwide Exploration's New Zealand operations manager Dennis Washer.



The Tui field is named after a New Zealand native bird

"There were some sober faces when Tui-2H died on us, but with some rocking it came back in gangbusters," Washer told the 2007 New Zealand Oil and Gas Conference in New Plymouth on Wednesday.

Since that first oil on July 31, two more development wells from the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools had been successfully brought onstream and "on several occasions we have reached the limit", he said, referring to the 50,000 barrels per day maximum processing ability of the Umuroa FPSO.

"These wells have now really demonstrated their ability to deliver," said Washer, adding that the fields had produced about 1.63 million barrels of waxy crude in the first 44 days of production.

Only three wells, with a combined production capacity well in excess of 100,000bpd, were presently needed and they were being choked back to 50,000bpd limit. The fourth well would be brought onstream later to maintain production flows.

Washer said initially there had been negligible water cut, now there was about 15,000barrels of water per day, and the company expected more water "any day now".

Washer said AWE's projections for the Tui Area fields was for output to have declined to about 17,800bpd after a full year of production, while water cut might have increased to 102,000 barrels of water per day.

Over 50% of the estimated 2P (proved plus probable) 32 million barrels of oil would be recovered with water cut of over 90%.

"This will essentially be an oil-skimming factory," he said.

The economic limit for the project, with oil priced at only $US50 per barrel, was about 2400bpd, so there should be many years of commercial production ahead.

Washer said Schlumberger's downhole tool, commonly known as "the periscope", had allowed the horizontal sections of the wells – a total of 5800m – always to be drilled within the top 2m of the reservoirs to maximise oil recovery.

A fourth shipment, of about 600,000 barrels, had recently been exported, he added.

The Tui partners are operator AWE (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).





Back to top

This was taken from a report on FIXX by kiwikauri.

Note Shasta now accurate our gross income for NZO was from TUI.
!.63 million in 44 days make 523,267 per day. We guessed about 500,000 so not too bad.
Also note that by AGM time we should have taken enought out of TUI to make a more accurate estimate of recoverable oils from those wells. My thinking and have to say mind only is that by the time 10% is harvested the size of the field should to clear.

upside_umop
14-09-2007, 04:23 PM
I think the call options have already expired. Only some puts extend to 2010.
Perhaps BWR could clarify.

both till june 2010.
call 168,000 bbls at 86.25.

Lion
14-09-2007, 04:52 PM
Digger, my calculation says 1.63 m barrels in 44 days is 37,000 per day, average.

upside_umop
14-09-2007, 06:19 PM
is there anyone well informed who can assist in explaining a bit more about the prospects left. as far as im aware, nzo has share in as follows:

-felix 75%
-toke and mataku 12.5%
-Denby, momoho and leith 15%

what other prospects are there that people are aware of? is hector south still to be drilled?

sideline
14-09-2007, 06:28 PM
both till june 2010.
call 168,000 bbls at 86.25.
Can't be - there is no open interest in calls for June 2010 on the NYMEX.
Perhaps BWR could enlighten us.

fish
14-09-2007, 06:49 PM
My off the cuff calculation is that nzo share equates to 5000 barrels a day at $80 US which equals 400,000 per day at an exchange rate averaging 70 cents which equals 570.000 nz dollars per day gross or about 17 million dollars per month !
This is far more than anticipated even 3 months ago .
Can this be true or have I made a fundamental error ?

shasta
14-09-2007, 07:03 PM
Friday, 14 September 2007
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand

THE July commissioning of the $US269 million Tui Area oil fields development off Taranaki, New Zealand threw up some surprises with one well initially failing to produce and the expected high water cut not eventuating, according to Australian Worldwide Exploration's New Zealand operations manager Dennis Washer.



The Tui field is named after a New Zealand native bird

"There were some sober faces when Tui-2H died on us, but with some rocking it came back in gangbusters," Washer told the 2007 New Zealand Oil and Gas Conference in New Plymouth on Wednesday.

Since that first oil on July 31, two more development wells from the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools had been successfully brought onstream and "on several occasions we have reached the limit", he said, referring to the 50,000 barrels per day maximum processing ability of the Umuroa FPSO.

"These wells have now really demonstrated their ability to deliver," said Washer, adding that the fields had produced about 1.63 million barrels of waxy crude in the first 44 days of production.

Only three wells, with a combined production capacity well in excess of 100,000bpd, were presently needed and they were being choked back to 50,000bpd limit. The fourth well would be brought onstream later to maintain production flows.

Washer said initially there had been negligible water cut, now there was about 15,000barrels of water per day, and the company expected more water "any day now".

Washer said AWE's projections for the Tui Area fields was for output to have declined to about 17,800bpd after a full year of production, while water cut might have increased to 102,000 barrels of water per day.

Over 50% of the estimated 2P (proved plus probable) 32 million barrels of oil would be recovered with water cut of over 90%.

"This will essentially be an oil-skimming factory," he said.

The economic limit for the project, with oil priced at only $US50 per barrel, was about 2400bpd, so there should be many years of commercial production ahead.

Washer said Schlumberger's downhole tool, commonly known as "the periscope", had allowed the horizontal sections of the wells – a total of 5800m – always to be drilled within the top 2m of the reservoirs to maximise oil recovery.

A fourth shipment, of about 600,000 barrels, had recently been exported, he added.

The Tui partners are operator AWE (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).





Back to top

This was taken from a report on FIXX by kiwikauri.

Note Shasta now accurate our gross income for NZO was from TUI.
!.63 million in 44 days make 523,267 per day. We guessed about 500,000 so not too bad.
Also note that by AGM time we should have taken enought out of TUI to make a more accurate estimate of recoverable oils from those wells. My thinking and have to say mind only is that by the time 10% is harvested the size of the field should to clear.

Nice to know "our" conservative figures have been substantially exceeded, anyone seen Balance?

boysy
14-09-2007, 07:11 PM
im guessing hes busy trying to correct us in our calculations . im guessing he might have to correct us as we might of been a bit conservative with our figures so far haha .Though i know there is no chance of balance being balanced when talking about NZO, heres hoping though.

Onthemoney
14-09-2007, 08:04 PM
im guessing hes busy trying to correct us in our calculations . im guessing he might have to correct us as we might of been a bit conservative with our figures so far haha .Though i know there is no chance of balance being balanced when talking about NZO, heres hoping though.

Pity the price isn't moving in the same positive direction.

digger
14-09-2007, 08:05 PM
Digger, my calculation says 1.63 m barrels in 44 days is 37,000 per day, average.

Lion,correct.Lets do it your way with a few more figures shown.

1.63 div by 44= 37045
37045 div by 12.5%=4630 NZO share per day.
4630 times 113=523258 Dollars per day NZO



Note several things here.First is that this is start up figures so will get better. Second the rate for nz dollars and current price has only just reached the good figures shown,so for the 44 days will be less.That also means that going forward things will probably get better.Cheers

clips
14-09-2007, 09:53 PM
when is end of year ? or 6 month reporting due ?

when financials are disclosed, and if they are as good as we all estimate, re rating
will follow....?

shasta
14-09-2007, 10:01 PM
when is end of year ? or 6 month reporting due ?

when financials are disclosed, and if they are as good as we all estimate, re rating
will follow....?

The next time we see there cashpiles should be in the September Quarterly Activities & Cashflow report due out by the end of October.

As there Balance date is 30 June, we should be due audited accounts anytime soon prior to the October AGM (though Tui wasnt in production at that point.)

Oiler
15-09-2007, 07:10 AM
Friday, 14 September 2007
Neil Ritchie, New Zealand

THE July commissioning of the $US269 million Tui Area oil fields development off Taranaki, New Zealand threw up some surprises with one well initially failing to produce and the expected high water cut not eventuating, according to Australian Worldwide Exploration's New Zealand operations manager Dennis Washer.



The Tui field is named after a New Zealand native bird

"There were some sober faces when Tui-2H died on us, but with some rocking it came back in gangbusters," Washer told the 2007 New Zealand Oil and Gas Conference in New Plymouth on Wednesday.

Since that first oil on July 31, two more development wells from the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools had been successfully brought onstream and "on several occasions we have reached the limit", he said, referring to the 50,000 barrels per day maximum processing ability of the Umuroa FPSO.

"These wells have now really demonstrated their ability to deliver," said Washer, adding that the fields had produced about 1.63 million barrels of waxy crude in the first 44 days of production.

Only three wells, with a combined production capacity well in excess of 100,000bpd, were presently needed and they were being choked back to 50,000bpd limit. The fourth well would be brought onstream later to maintain production flows.

Washer said initially there had been negligible water cut, now there was about 15,000barrels of water per day, and the company expected more water "any day now".

Washer said AWE's projections for the Tui Area fields was for output to have declined to about 17,800bpd after a full year of production, while water cut might have increased to 102,000 barrels of water per day.

Over 50% of the estimated 2P (proved plus probable) 32 million barrels of oil would be recovered with water cut of over 90%.

"This will essentially be an oil-skimming factory," he said.

The economic limit for the project, with oil priced at only $US50 per barrel, was about 2400bpd, so there should be many years of commercial production ahead.

Washer said Schlumberger's downhole tool, commonly known as "the periscope", had allowed the horizontal sections of the wells – a total of 5800m – always to be drilled within the top 2m of the reservoirs to maximise oil recovery.

A fourth shipment, of about 600,000 barrels, had recently been exported, he added.

The Tui partners are operator AWE (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).





Back to top

This was taken from a report on FIXX by kiwikauri.
.

Tui's Umuroa is not out of the woods yet with the commissioning, guys. There appear to be a number of issues around the gas compressors ( where is the Roo man?) that need to be resolved. Operations/production shuts down in a fault mode which isnt good for the magic number of 50,000 bpd. Who knows there may even be problems with compliance issues ;)
Dennis Washer did say that by now they were expecting a lot more water but so far it has been minimal, which is a positive but there is no doubt the water will kick in.

fish
15-09-2007, 07:48 AM
Oiler 2-those sound like very minor problems to be expected.
You cant get away from the facts of the phenomenal production with less water and more reserves than expected . Currently tui is producing over nz $5 million per day = 150,000,000 per month .
It looks to me as if the value of this production has been grossly under-estimated.
We havnt seen a calculation of net profit but with expenses being fixed i can see a scenario such as this for tui in the first year
fixed expenses 250 million if gross income is 750 million profit = 500 million but if gross income is 1250 million profit = 1000
In later years of production this effect becomes magnified-
say at year 5 expenses 300 million gross income 400 million -profit =100 million
but if gross income is $800 million profit is 500million-5 times as much !
And of course this allows production to go on at lot longer .
Wouldnt it be great at the agm if were given a range of scenarios -from the negative to the positive-then we could look at those scenarios -and each to their own believe what they want to believe .

digger
15-09-2007, 06:59 PM
Tui's Umuroa is not out of the woods yet with the commissioning, guys. There appear to be a number of issues around the gas compressors ( where is the Roo man?) that need to be resolved. Operations/production shuts down in a fault mode which isnt good for the magic number of 50,000 bpd. Who knows there may even be problems with compliance issues ;)
Dennis Washer did say that by now they were expecting a lot more water but so far it has been minimal, which is a positive but there is no doubt the water will kick in.

Oiler2,if the JV can get the present figures with the bad news of not yet being completely successful with commissioning,then who needs good news.
The biggest negative i can see is that we could run out of tax losses in one year.We have about 100million and that will take 200 days.Given that about 1/3 will be costs add another 100 days and we will be stuffed for tax losses in one year.I would have thought Balance would have picked that up and hammered it home.

Onthemoney
15-09-2007, 08:54 PM
Oiler2,if the JV can get the present figures with the bad news of not yet being completely successful with commissioning,then who needs good news.
The biggest negative i can see is that we could run out of tax losses in one year.We have about 100million and that will take 200 days.Given that about 1/3 will be costs add another 100 days and we will be stuffed for tax losses in one year.I would have thought Balance would have picked that up and hammered it home.

Using the tax losses is not such a bad thing it is just a matter of questioning what the company is going to do with the positive cashflow as a result.

fish
16-09-2007, 08:34 AM
Didnt NZO state they were going to return 1/2 net profits as Dividends ?

shane_m
16-09-2007, 11:00 AM
email the management ask them, personally I think dividend unlikely. I think they would save it for cost blow outs at Pike.

What I can confirm is though, first coal is not going to Newcastle.

Nitaa
16-09-2007, 12:29 PM
I remember seeing something about the possibility of dividends. in a nutshell it all came down to what was best for the business. i read that as firstly as using up tax credits, reducing or wiping off debts, having strong balance sheet for potential takeover targets, explorations or increase in capex. therefore any dividend would be minimal. perhaps wait until 2009 at the earliest is my guess. when kupe and pike starts producing then there is good support for handing out a divy. my pick...2009

upside_umop
16-09-2007, 02:26 PM
Can't be - there is no open interest in calls for June 2010 on the NYMEX.
Perhaps BWR could enlighten us.

hey sideline,

the may presentation on nzog.net states those figures.

wouldnt have made too much sense if the options had expired before production and all..


on another note, i liked that word nita used that we havent heard for a while - explorations!

so who knows anything about felix, toke (and the rest gained with this permit area) , kupe sites and hector south..?

neopole
16-09-2007, 02:27 PM
at this stage their pumping full steam ahead, and collecting cash, and by 2009 2010 they will be collecting cash from the other 2 projects. the grey zone is ..... how is tui going to perform in the next 2 years? If it starts to go downhill faster than expected....... they will need the suport of shareholders, if it declines at a slower rate, and keeps feeding cash till the other 2 projects are on stream......... then....... there is a possibility of using the cash surplus to buy back ALL the shares and delist the company, sharing out the next 20 years of income for the elite top circle.
the guys at the top will be doing their maths now....... as the share price is soooo depressed, and doing a buy back now or soon( once they have the well forcast) would be a real coup.
the future income of this company will be outstanding, its the grey zone we are in now that will make or break any closed door dealings....... and who will be party to it.
in the mean time, accumulate.

boysy
16-09-2007, 03:14 PM
when do people belive a rerating might occur ?

shasta
16-09-2007, 03:23 PM
at this stage their pumping full steam ahead, and collecting cash, and by 2009 2010 they will be collecting cash from the other 2 projects. the grey zone is ..... how is tui going to perform in the next 2 years? If it starts to go downhill faster than expected....... they will need the suport of shareholders, if it declines at a slower rate, and keeps feeding cash till the other 2 projects are on stream......... then....... there is a possibility of using the cash surplus to buy back ALL the shares and delist the company, sharing out the next 20 years of income for the elite top circle.
the guys at the top will be doing their maths now....... as the share price is soooo depressed, and doing a buy back now or soon( once they have the well forcast) would be a real coup.
the future income of this company will be outstanding, its the grey zone we are in now that will make or break any closed door dealings....... and who will be party to it.
in the mean time, accumulate.

Neopole

Under your scenerio above, who would buy the shares back?

The company cannot buy back more than 5% of its own capital (as per its constitution), it would also need shareholder & NZX approval to do so.

Now, IF NZO had a majority shareholder who wanted to buyout the minorities, they could mount a takeover & delist the company, but we dont!

airedale
16-09-2007, 04:11 PM
If I had wanted dividends there are any number of other companies on the NZX I would have invested in. But I didn't come to NZO for them.:)

upside_umop
16-09-2007, 04:12 PM
they can only hold upto 5% as treasury, but they can buyback and cancel as much as they like.
thus, if management were to hold their shares and buyback and cancel, eventually they could be left with the controlling stake. that is eventually...imagine the price of those last few shares they would be trying to take over..it would become a massive price.

what do you mean by rerating boysy? pike has disappointed, but tui has offset that..i think we're about same as a few months back...?

boysy
16-09-2007, 04:24 PM
upside im talking about tui reserves rerating i believe that some one metioned at around the 2 month mark (after around 10% of recoverable reserves had been extracted) they expected a rerating. im just wondering from some one in the business if thats the case usually cheers

shasta
16-09-2007, 04:41 PM
upside im talking about tui reserves rerating i believe that some one metioned at around the 2 month mark (after around 10% of recoverable reserves had been extracted) they expected a rerating. im just wondering from some one in the business if thats the case usually cheers

Lets just be happy with the near 50,000bopd for the JV, low % water cut, & hope there arent any problems as Oiler2 outlined.

The flow rates & POO will determine how long we pump oil put for & its too early to start talking upgrades...

There is more oil within the structure, HOWEVER:

- Is it recoverble?

- If so, is it economic to do so?

boysy
16-09-2007, 05:43 PM
cheers well now that we arnt actively exploring with the ocean patriot are we going to keep getting weekly updates do you think ? perhaps weekly flow rates water cut ect ?

shasta
16-09-2007, 05:48 PM
cheers well now that we arnt actively exploring with the ocean patriot are we going to keep getting weekly updates do you think ? perhaps weekly flow rates water cut ect ?

There is no requirement for the JV partners to disclose weekly drilling reports.

Now Tui is in production they are bound by the usual NZX/ASX disclosures, otherwise expect to read about developments in the quarterlies.

Next one not due out til end of Oct, another 6 weeks or so away, during that time another roughly $30m revenue will have been earnt by NZO!

Oiler
16-09-2007, 06:31 PM
Lets just be happy with the near 50,000bopd for the JV, low % water cut, & hope there arent any problems as Oiler2 outlined.

The flow rates & POO will determine how long we pump oil put for & its too early to start talking upgrades...

There is more oil within the structure, HOWEVER:

- Is it recoverble?

- If so, is it economic to do so?

Shasta

well said.......... I "believe there may well be more recoverable oil without the increase in water" . The water will hit,but the question is when?

Operator expected it to jump by now and it hasnt as yet ??
The positive is that the plant is designed to cope with the water.

There are problems to be overcome with getting a consistent 50,000 bopd and these will take time............ lets hope that in the "time" that this takes they dont get hit with "compliance issues" flaring excess gas,oil etc.

At the end of the day though it is very much a success story in the big scheme of things.

sideline
16-09-2007, 07:43 PM
hey sideline,

the may presentation on nzog.net states those figures.

wouldnt have made too much sense if the options had expired before production and all..

.................................

Yes upside, in May there were contracts open on the Nymex for June, July and August this year in the
86 and 87 US$ bracket, which together could have yielded the average of $86.25 . But unless
they have been rolled over (and I can't see a reason why they would have) they should be all
gone by now.
Far out in the future the trading is done only in $5 increments, i.e. $80,$85,$90 anyway.

boysy
17-09-2007, 03:35 PM
so what do peole expect to see tomoro in update if there is one released ?

sideline
17-09-2007, 06:42 PM
so what do peole expect to see tomoro in update if there is one released ?

Weekly updates are for exploration drilling only, yes??
Since there isn't any at the moment, I don't expect an update.

However Ensco107 is en route, so there may soon be some news regarding the start
of the Kupe drilling. And there were some exploration wells in the Ensco contract.

upside_umop
17-09-2007, 07:26 PM
Yes upside, in May there were contracts open on the Nymex for June, July and August this year in the
86 and 87 US$ bracket, which together could have yielded the average of $86.25 . But unless
they have been rolled over (and I can't see a reason why they would have) they should be all
gone by now.
Far out in the future the trading is done only in $5 increments, i.e. $80,$85,$90 anyway.

The may presentation states it exactly like:

Tui Hedging (June 2007 to June 2010)
Put 897,000 bbls at US$50/bbl
Call 168,000 bbls at US$86.25

A reason why you may not see it on nymex is that i recall reading somewhere that they were going to base the price of put/calls on WTI crude plus the premium for tapis, so it máy not be on the nymex trading system as its tapis oil. if you've got an enquiry prob best to email nzog and hear it from their mouth...

maybe they have a private agreement and therefore wouldnt be traded on the nymex?

but yeah, im no option trader so best to go straight to the company and talk it with them.

sideline
18-09-2007, 09:28 AM
Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Forecast to $85 (Update4)

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its yearend oil-price forecast to $85 a barrel and said there was a ``high risk'' of a jump above $90 because supplies will drop to critical levels in the fourth quarter, when heating demand peaks.

Goldman increased its 2007 yearend forecast from a previous prediction of $72 a barrel, analysts at the world's biggest securities firm said in a research note today. Prices are forecast to reach as high as $95 a barrel by the end of 2008, Goldman said.

..........................

boysy
18-09-2007, 11:17 AM
crude oil at record highs over $81

shasta
18-09-2007, 11:25 AM
crude oil at record highs over $81

NZ/USD is at touch over 70c so your $US81 = $NZ115

At peak capacity of 50,000bopd = 350,000 per week x 0.125 = 43,750bbls

$5m revenue per week to NZO at these levels!!!

For PPP (as a comparison)

35,000bbls (being 10% of 350,000) = $4m revenue per week.

In theory the NZO SP should climb approx 2c a week & PPP 1c per week :eek:

upside_umop
18-09-2007, 11:53 AM
its not all profit though shasta - just revenue, and its factored into the shareprice already through a npv of the expected cashflows (net of expenses)...the shareprice should just rise at the discounted rate from now.
but the increase % in poo (compared to that used in estimates) will add to that discount rate which is what we're looking at. but yeah...imagine if it was 2 cents per week!

Zorbah
18-09-2007, 01:48 PM
.
WTI closes the day at US$ 80.57 .....

Nymex currently at US$ 81.04 .....

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

GO the TUI pump out !!!!

arjay
18-09-2007, 02:29 PM
I wish I could share your enthusiasm Zorba, however just at the moment the increase in oil price, while being recognized by my wallet at the pumps, is not recieving equal consideration by the NZO SP.

sideline
18-09-2007, 02:34 PM
Headline on FNARENA:

Spot Oil Targeting US$89 Per Barrel
FN Arena News - September 18 2007
Technical chartists at Barclays Capital believe spot WTI oil seems to be targeting US$89/bbl, with an interim price correction likely in the short term.

Sayce
18-09-2007, 03:02 PM
To see next Taranaki offshore drill progress log in to http://www.awexp.com.au/

Dr_Who
18-09-2007, 04:23 PM
Oil prices up and $NZ down, so why NZO price still at these levels?

boysy
18-09-2007, 05:05 PM
well volumes on NZX very low recently so i think NZO has held up well today being one of the few risers

boysy
18-09-2007, 05:17 PM
positive release for PRC lets hope this flows onto NZO

The Pike River mine is poised to benefit from an expected jump in hard coking
coal prices. Market observers are currently expecting hard coking coal prices
in the next Japanese Fiscal Year (commencing 1 April 2008), to settle at
around US$115 per tonne, compared to the Pike River initial public offer
(IPO) prospectus forecast of US$96 per tonne. Indications are that longer
term coking coal prices from 2011 onwards will also lift due to ongoing
strong international demand.

Oiler
18-09-2007, 06:35 PM
positive release for PRC lets hope this flows onto NZO

The Pike River mine is poised to benefit from an expected jump in hard coking
coal prices. Market observers are currently expecting hard coking coal prices
in the next Japanese Fiscal Year (commencing 1 April 2008), to settle at
around US$115 per tonne, compared to the Pike River initial public offer
(IPO) prospectus forecast of US$96 per tonne. Indications are that longer
term coking coal prices from 2011 onwards will also lift due to ongoing
strong international demand.

boysy dont you think that the positive release was just a sweetener to then go on to tell you that the construction costs had increased and would probably go even higher. :mad: bad planning !!!!

I am going to wait a few more months before buying????? the mine is not out of the woods yet.

You seem to very high on NZO and PRC....... do you want to share your optimism :D

boysy
18-09-2007, 06:51 PM
fair enuf good with the bad sure costs are set to increase the question is will the price of coal increase more than the costs ? Im thinking yes with current coking coal pridictions. Of course im biased i have a stake in NZO but in saying that i am not trying to ramp up the share but trying to bring attention to realeases and material facts currently available to market. I find it a good forum here as there are clearly different views about performance of NZO and hope that people continue to share views as its certainly an entertaining thread .
cheers

duncan macgregor
18-09-2007, 07:06 PM
The price of coal will increase. The cost of getting it out and transporting it to its destination will increase. The length of time before they run at a profit is increasing. This company has a long hard road in front of it getting in to profit before its pay back time. The mine life is approx thirty years so one thirtieth of all the start up costs, plus interest on any money borrowed payed back before you lot start counting your chickens. The only time ever to buy into something like this is when the risk is gone, and you know what the figures are likely to be. I still think the double port costs plus all the extra loading, and unloading, make this a very high risk share, especially with a greenie govt in power. Macdunk

digger
18-09-2007, 07:09 PM
On morning report or was it first news this morning,the Russians have awarded to a French company the contract to encase Chernobyl in a doom of steel. Now that will take a lot of steel which will require a lot of hard cokeing coal to make.
I am not too worried,in fact expected it,that cost will blow out in construting PIKE.It is the old story as with TUI the cost blowouts are here now and the revenue blowouts are down the track and will not get counted until after the money is in the bank.

Onthemoney
18-09-2007, 07:19 PM
positive release for PRC lets hope this flows onto NZO

The Pike River mine is poised to benefit from an expected jump in hard coking
coal prices. Market observers are currently expecting hard coking coal prices
in the next Japanese Fiscal Year (commencing 1 April 2008), to settle at
around US$115 per tonne, compared to the Pike River initial public offer
(IPO) prospectus forecast of US$96 per tonne. Indications are that longer
term coking coal prices from 2011 onwards will also lift due to ongoing
strong international demand.

Big deal they don't even have a working mine yet....

boysy
18-09-2007, 07:46 PM
true they dont but when/if they start to produce coal this information is clearly relevant both to the current sp and future sp.

upside_umop
18-09-2007, 08:06 PM
i wasnt myself too impressed with the release.

cost blowout + behind schedule = more of our hard earned coin gone + longer lead time to getting returns/cashflows

the prediction on coal is just that, a prediction, nothing solid. when coal comes through at that price, or they get some sort of contract securing those prices is when ill be happy.

for now though, the sp looks good. been on a bit of a trend up lately, more buyers than sellers too. next few months will be interesting...

digger
18-09-2007, 08:24 PM
Big deal they don't even have a working mine yet....

2 and a half months ago the same thing could have been said about TUI

digger
18-09-2007, 08:29 PM
i wasnt myself too impressed with the release.

cost blowout + behind schedule = more of our hard earned coin gone + longer lead time to getting returns/cashflows

the prediction on coal is just that, a prediction, nothing solid. when coal comes through at that price, or they get some sort of contract securing those prices is when ill be happy.

for now though, the sp looks good. been on a bit of a trend up lately, more buyers than sellers too. next few months will be interesting...

About 6 months ago i picked first coal in June 08. Still say june 08.
The price is also trending up because the stag stage is now beyond the company.The traders sell regardless of a profit or loss.

AMR
19-09-2007, 08:31 AM
I'm not a veteran coal miner, but here are my thoughts about PRC as of late :

There was $11 million of contingency set aside originally and $20m of spare cash from the oversubscriptions. The blowout yesterday has eaten up the entire contingency fund, so it is in fact quite a big blowout.

Long term, $11 million will be nothing to PRC when they are up and running. A fortnight's income?

Short term, the $11 million blowout and the month of delay to the critical path (the tunnelling) will mean an extra month delay to getting income, and doesn't help the case with Westpac financing. This also increases the chance of an issue of options.

[I'm not 100% sure on the tunnelling and the impact on the critical path, for more information asked Oiler2, our sharetrader in-house project manager]

Hoop
19-09-2007, 08:54 AM
No..I wasn't impressed by PRC news either...it was bad news yet the PRC share price went up???
Anyway oil prices are up $1` to $81.50 Us$/NZ$ +2.77% up Big rise on the DOW and NASDAQ

Surely this must add a cent or two to NZO today, and it may help NZO to break out of it's 100-105c trading trend it's in at the moment.

Oil stocks soar on Fed rate cut, $82 crude (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oil-stocks-soar-fed-rate/story.aspx?guid=%7BB281A47C%2DB793%2D4381%2DAD8E%2 D019E957B6609%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN)

boysy
19-09-2007, 10:31 AM
oil prices expected to jump as onset of winter happens in northern hemisphere

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10464553

boysy
19-09-2007, 10:34 AM
And hurricane season - this report today about possibility of a hurricane developing in gulf of mexico

Weather systems over the Bahamas and near Florida's northeast coast may combine in coming days, the centre said in an advisory on its website. "Slow development is possible over Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days as these systems interact."

Balance
19-09-2007, 10:46 AM
Oil price goes up, notice that NZO sp does bugger-all. I wonder why.

Maybe if you are playing the oil story, the better way is to buy one of the oil majors like Chevron - it's only up 50% plus in the last year.

boysy
19-09-2007, 11:02 AM
ill tell you why its called the exchange rate

shasta
19-09-2007, 11:09 AM
Oil price goes up, notice that NZO sp does bugger-all. I wonder why.

Maybe if you are playing the oil story, the better way is to buy one of the oil majors like Chevron - it's only up 50% plus in the last year.

Have you gone off comparing NZO to WPL?

Nitaa
19-09-2007, 11:36 AM
Oil price goes up, notice that NZO sp does bugger-all. I wonder why.

Maybe if you are playing the oil story, the better way is to buy one of the oil majors like Chevron - it's only up 50% plus in the last year.this guy is brilliant.....NOT

You crack me up Balance. you really have a bee in your bonet about nzo. why dont you just say what it is that bothering you rather than a 1 eyed view..

you remind me of an ol workmate. always complaining about something. gets really depressing listening to these types of people. after a while you stop asking "how is our day" or "good morning" because their response is always negative. how depressing. i dont know if anyone else knows what im talking about (pessimistic work mate) but they just drop your mood straight away.

dsurf
19-09-2007, 02:31 PM
Oil price goes up, notice that NZO sp does bugger-all. I wonder why.

Maybe it's MacDunk
Maybe it's skyrocketing Kupe costs (up 10% meanwhile how much is oil, LPG, gas up)
Maybe it's a biased media
Maybe it's because NZ has no resource sector analysts
Maybe it's because management forecasts (floats, production etc) are now just late instead of wrong

Will it change - yes because NZO will one day have profit and not even the media can misreport that!

boysy
19-09-2007, 02:54 PM
right now we are going on estimates of flow rates ect i think some solid reporting and results in the next quarterly could help us all answer a few questions

duncan macgregor
19-09-2007, 03:04 PM
Oil price goes up, notice that NZO sp does bugger-all. I wonder why.

Maybe it's MacDunk
Maybe it's skyrocketing Kupe costs (up 10% meanwhile how much is oil, LPG, gas up)
Maybe it's a biased media
Maybe it's because NZ has no resource sector analysts
Maybe it's because management forecasts (floats, production etc) are now just late instead of wrong

Will it change - yes because NZO will one day have profit and not even the media can misreport that! You cant blame me for the sp doing bugger all even although i am not buying or intend buying into it. The basic reason is that they have pissed so many people off in the past, with their utter contempt for the share investors right to know that they have run out of buyers.
On top of that is the boring AGM with nothing but waffles, and platitudes and not a sausage roll in sight, which really was the last straw. Who cares about the price of oil, all you lot should care about is whats in it for you. I dont see very much in it other than snouts in the trough, with very little over for the shareholders.
I see more expensive holes in the ground, more money being raised, management in it for as long as they can with very little return in sp or dividends. Thats how i see it, like i said before PRC was floated, i wouldnt touch it with your barge pole. Macdunk

Nitaa
19-09-2007, 09:01 PM
You cant blame me for the sp doing bugger all even although i am not buying or intend buying into it. The basic reason is that they have pissed so many people off in the past, with their utter contempt for the share investors right to know that they have run out of buyers.
On top of that is the boring AGM with nothing but waffles, and platitudes and not a sausage roll in sight, which really was the last straw. Who cares about the price of oil, all you lot should care about is whats in it for you. I dont see very much in it other than snouts in the trough, with very little over for the shareholders.
I see more expensive holes in the ground, more money being raised, management in it for as long as they can with very little return in sp or dividends. Thats how i see it, like i said before PRC was floated, i wouldnt touch it with your barge pole. Macdunkduncan.
If NZO were not contemplating more holes in the ground then i would be really concerned. oil in a well does not last forever so when it dries up so does the revenue. i.e duncan, like any good oil company they need to keep drilling wildcats, known reserves, conduct mapping and so on. oil companies are not like a supermarket chain where you put up a store and people will keep coming for a lifetime more or less.

word on the street duncan, no sausage rolls for the agm but some fine tui light...sweet of course. next agm same thing but watered down even more.. 10 years time still giving us some tui..

last train out of nzo almost gone.. i hear a song coming on..

Onthemoney
19-09-2007, 09:04 PM
duncan.
If NZO were not contemplating more holes in the ground then i would be really concerned. oil in a well does not last forever so when it dries up so does the revenue. i.e duncan, like any good oil company they need to keep drilling wildcats, known reserves, conduct mapping and so on. oil companies are not like a supermarket chain where you put up a store and people will keep coming for a lifetime more or less.

word on the street duncan, no sausage rolls for the agm but some fine tui light...sweet of course. next agm same thing but watered down even more.. 10 years time still giving us some tui..

last train out of nzo almost gone.. i hear a song coming on..

Nita you need to read this thread over the past 8 years or so. MD used to probably be a believer as well.

Be very aware this comp treats its owners like ........

duncan macgregor
19-09-2007, 09:47 PM
duncan.

last train out of nzo almost gone.. i hear a song coming on.. NITA nothing to do with the fat lady bursting into song this train leaving the station is it?. The mind boggles at what might be said. Only in jest NITA sorry about that. Macdunk

the machine
19-09-2007, 11:34 PM
one would expect nzo will be wanting to get the options excised - therefore the sp has to climb 50% over next 6 months for that to happen - even more to be comfortable that they will be excised [just incase a stockmarket crash in 2 months prior to june 30 2008]

next installment from nzo is probably an invester update prior to agm, then the agm and quarterley. one can expect plenty of positive ramping etc over next few months.

with prc first coal not until april and 1st shipment say june, then prc will not do the trick to have options excised.

be patient and buy more, not sell

M

Nitaa
20-09-2007, 03:55 AM
Nita you need to read this thread over the past 8 years or so. MD used to probably be a believer as well.

Be very aware this comp treats its owners like ........onthemoney.

me a believer? i dont put myself in that category at all. mr radford did a lot of good for the company but also did a lot of bad for the company. i consider myself to have a reasonable (no more) handle on nzo and its past exploits. even to the point where 20 plus years ago where the stock market was humming, nzo was hanging around the 50 cent mark if im not mistaken.

nzo lost its biggest asset when eric mathews went to greener pastures. a very good scalp for awe imo for many reasons.

i have also reviewd this thread or the old one to see all the hopefuls only to be dissapointed. fly by nighters i call them. duncan (no offence big boy) along with a string of others have been lured, taken the bait and been spat out.

the past is the past. nzo has been damaged with poor pr, misrepresentation (imo) and many failed promises. still i see a company for what it is worth. pike is the biggest supressor for the sp short term and may have more complications next year. tui speaks for itself. going gang busters and with more to come. kupe with cost blowouts of around 150% i believe is a silent weapon. why? going to be a great revenue plus some bonus with oil fields that look promising. this has been low key for a number of years and imo if the options ever get in the money it will be because of the kupe area.

nzo and pike have made some good recruits. although im not a fan at all of gordon ward he is gaining some valuable experience. Peter Whittall is a great scoop for pike and they have made huge gains in david salisbury. however they need some new blood on the board.

summary. there are many stocks far worse than nzo. never hold your breath with nzo or you will die. anything under $1 is a buy over the next 6 months

digger
20-09-2007, 04:17 AM
Nita,a very fair summary and mostly i agree with. Kupe is indeed the silent asset that IMHO will be much greater than TUI. Also it will come at a time of greater oil and gas prices.Pike is all blow out today but will be a good earner in time,unless one is to believe that the world will accept nil growth.

Balance
20-09-2007, 06:50 AM
Nita,a very fair summary and mostly i agree with. Kupe is indeed the silent asset that IMHO will be much greater than TUI. Also it will come at a time of greater oil and gas prices.Pike is all blow out today but will be a good earner in time,unless one is to believe that the world will accept nil growth.

Nil growth? What about nil production from PRC? Or non-economic production? There are such things as special risks (usually very high) when it comes to evaluating mining companies. That's one reason why they are usually heavily discounted.

So be patient for those with faith in NZO and PRC. No point jumping up and down trying to scream down those like MacD who are simply highlighting why your unbridled optimism are not being returned by a soaring share price.

Patience, patience and more patience.

digger
20-09-2007, 07:04 AM
Nil growth? What about nil production from PRC? Or non-economic production? There are such things as special risks (usually very high) when it comes to evaluating mining companies. That's one reason why they are usually heavily discounted.

So be patient for those with faith in NZO and PRC. No point jumping up and down trying to scream down those like MacD who are simply highlighting why your unbridled optimism are not being returned by a soaring share price.

Patience, patience and more patience.

Balance that is twice in a row you have said something that is correct.The point i am emphasizing is the bit where mining companies are heavily discounted. With Pike you sure have that right.It is heavily discounted which means the discount already builds in a large number of things going wronge with delays.Yes good point,already discounted.

dsurf
20-09-2007, 08:30 AM
Discounted far too much - check out how much money Solid Energy makes exporting coal. Also "non economic production" - costs have gone up 11m - future revenue when producing up 30% for near / medium term. The mine is 60% of the way there. It is very unlikely to cave in since the rock is very solid! The roads may collapse. The ships will be delayed. One months delay will turn into two then three. The mines life will end in may 2050 instead of February 2050 - just in time for my grandkids to buy a house!!!

duncan macgregor
20-09-2007, 09:24 AM
Discounted far too much - check out how much money Solid Energy makes exporting coal. Also "non economic production" - costs have gone up 11m - future revenue when producing up 30% for near / medium term. The mine is 60% of the way there. It is very unlikely to cave in since the rock is very solid! The roads may collapse. The ships will be delayed. One months delay will turn into two then three. The mines life will end in may 2050 instead of February 2050 - just in time for my grandkids to buy a house!!! I think you are looking at this from a different position than your own.
Things to consider nothing else matters.
1, What is the likely dividend going to be and how long the wait.
2, Will the sp increase faster than my other investments.
3, The market tells me i paid to much at the start i am now playing catch up with no foreseeable dividend on the horizon so what has changed.
4, I have to take the word of an unproven company that my savings are in good hands is this wise?.
I would suggest that anyone buying in at the start has a very long time to wait to even catch up to leaving their money sitting in the bank. Hope it comes right for you. Macdunk