QIN - Quintis [formerly TFC - TFS Corp] Sandalwood

[stolwyk]

1. Yes, $A102,000 per tonne of log:

http://www.tfsltd.com.au/high_value.asp

"INCREASING HIGH VALUE

Perhaps due to the strong demand for Indian Sandalwood and its multitude of end uses, there is a growing shortage as native Sandalwood resources are depleted. India supplies over 90% of the world’s Indian Sandalwood but their supplies are uncertain and ravaged by illegal harvesting and smuggling.

Indian Sandalwood is now listed on the World Conservation Union’s (IUCN) Threatened Species Redlist due to this exploitation of the natural resources. Sources in India suggest that supplies of good quality wood may be depleted in as little as five years".

2. And the fragrant oil as well:
http://www.tfsltd.com.au/perfumes_cosmetics_aromatherapy.asp

COLLABORATION AGREEMENT WITH ALBERT VIEILLE
14 June 2007
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/309b5f7d0d3edd0cfcf8550cbfb43537/ASX-TFC-365285.pdf

3. Website: http://www.tfsltd.com.au/corporate_profile.asp

4. History:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-history?S=TFC&E=ASX&Year=2007


5. Placement and SPP:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/949d425f5b54b43db250ffd213b4ae12/ASX-TFC-367860.pdf

A worthwhile investment, IMHO

Dec 2006: Newsletter to Growers/investors

http://www.tfsltd.com.au/files/Dec%202006%20Newsletter.pdf

2 July 2007: Sales and profit update:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/482e96539f68d4724843728e040018ab/ASX-TFC-367307.pdf

"TFS Corporation Limited (TFS) today announced that its 2007 Indian Sandalwood Project had closed oversubscribed. New product sales for the full year to 30 June 2007 were in excess of 525 hectares, representing a significant increase over the 326.5 hectares sold in FY06.

“We are extremely pleased with this outcome, “ said Frank Wilson, Executive Chairman. “It reflects the appeal of our MIS product, following the recent establishment of regulatory certainty for forestry MIS, as well as the compelling long term market outlook for Indian Sandalwood, “he added.

Based on this sales result, TFS now expects net profit after tax for FY07 to be at least $16.5 million, or a greater than 30% increase over the $12.0 million reported for FY06.
“The upwards revision to our earnings expectations, from a previously indicated increase in net profit of at least 10%, is a direct reflection of the better than expected sales performance,” said Mr Wilson.
TFS expects to release its full year results in late August 2007".

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[stolwyk]

June 2007 Presentation:
Page 11: Sandalwood oil: $A2200/kg!!!

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/67c866481de77340c829df0c43a96d36/ASX-TFC-365128.pdf

Vertical integration is very positive IMHO as it enables the wood to be used prior to normal maturity.

Hence, sandalwood oil is a very worthwhile addition to logs as it enables **earlier** cashflow:

14 June: http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/309b5f7d0d3edd0cfcf8550cbfb43537/ASX-TFC-365285.pdf
"Under the agreement, Albert Vieille will:
Conduct trials with TFS later this year to investigate bringing forward the processing of TFS’s Indian Sandalwood (santalum album) plantations, from the current projected initial harvest date of 2012".

Another big plus: Where else are ready-made irrigated lands on which to grow this wood? Plenty of water promotes fast growth.

At the moment, there are 179.1 mill shares with a SPP to come. Assume the sum total will be 186 mill shares after the SPP.
A profit of at least $A16.5 mill is forecasted for the current year:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/482e96539f68d4724843728e040018ab/ASX-TFC-367307.pdf

Let it be $17 mill. The **weighted** number of shares could be some 160 mill., thus the E/S will be about 10.6 cents.

Currrent price about 105 cents or prospective P/E: 9.9, a low number IMHO.

TFC has much to offer:
1. It soon will be the leading world producer due to heavy expansion and application of a favourable tax regime to tree investors.
2. The company itself owns a considerable area of land and trees, over 200 ha in 2006 with a deferred interest in another 200 ha. Total land in trees is 1200 ha. in 2007 E.
3. A staggering log price of over $A100,000 and a sandalwood oil price of $A2200/litre have been noted.

4. Excellent experienced Management.
5. The use of premium Indian sandalwood and high quality stock.
6. The stocked areas are irrigated, hence growth is speeded up.
7. Income from a number of sources, including repeated income from maintaining previously planted stock.
8. A relatively short rotation with logs being sold from 2012.

9. Vertical integration has been announced. This involves the production of oil from these trees, the advantage being that harvesting can occur earlier than 2012, hence producing additional cashflows, profits and dividends. Research is necessary.
10. An interim div of 0.9 cents was paid out. Based on expected increasing profits, a 2007 final div of 2.1 cents could be paid, making a total of 3 cents/share against 2.1 cents for 2006. Div reinvestman plan is in operation.
11. These combined positive factors ought to support the share price in a market correction, IMHO. Where else can one find a near monopoly market and premium products, underwritten by increasing profits and dividends.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[stolwyk]

5 July 2007
INSTITUTIONAL PLACEMENT AND SHARE PURCHASE PLAN
The Directors of TFS Corporation Limited (TFS) are pleased to announce that TFS has successfully raised $15.3 million through an institutional share placement and intends to undertake a share purchase plan (SPP) for existing eligible shareholders to raise up to a further $5.0 million.

The funds from the placement and share purchase plan will be used to finance additional land purchases to expand the company’s land bank.
The placement of 17.0 million shares was undertaken at $0.90 to clients of Ord Minnett Limited. This price represents a discount of 2.37% to TFS’ 5 day volume weighted average price.

The record date for the SPP is Friday, 13 July 2007 and eligible shareholders (all those with registered addresses in Australia, and New Zealand) will be entitled to apply for a minimum of $1,000 up to a maximum of $5,000 worth of TFS shares at an issue price of $0.90 per share. Documentation for the SPP will be despatched to eligible shareholders shortly. The expected closing date for subscriptions is Thursday, 23 August 2007.

As announced on 14 June 2007, the company is experiencing strong interest in its santalum album oil and related Indian sandalwood products, given the long term sustainability and certainty of supply that TFS can offer.

This factor, combined with growing interest from investors in the company’s MIS products, provides TFS with the comfort to expand its land bank as appropriate opportunities arise, both in the Ord River Irrigation Area (ORIA) and other locations in north-western Western Australia and in the Northern Territory. The capital raising will facilitate this expansion.

In this regard TFS is pleased to advise that it has contracted to acquire 172 hectares of land in the ORIA. This purchase will bring the company’s total land bank to over 2,600 hectares.
For further information please contact:
Frank Wilson
Executive Chairman
TFS Corporation
+61 8 9221 9466
TFS

COMMENT: Landbank 2600 ha of which 1200 ha will be deemed to be planted up in 2007 (The company owns 200 ha as well as another deferred 200 ha: See previous posts.. The 2008 year, started on 1 July 2007 promises to be a good one IMHO.

[stolwyk]

Comparing apples with oranges.

That is the result when "ordinary" log prices are compared with sandalwood log prices, the latter at over $A100,000 per tonne.

In contrast, "ordinary" log prices are only a fraction of this; yet the same taxation advantages apply in both cases.

Hence, I consider the future sale of land blocks to grow sandalwood to be relatively easy to a captive investing public.

If I lived in Australia, I would certainly prefer a sandalwood block producing a high cashflow at a young age to a forest block with "ordinary" timber, say Radiata or Eucal.

Therefore, I expect excellent sandalwood land sales in the future with the overall control re growth and disposal of this wood by TFS and consequential repeated fees to be paid by tree block investors.

This company could grow into a reasonable sized entity and still own a large portion of the total planted area as well while paying good dividends at the same time.


There is some confusion about Sandalwoods.

TFC - TFS CORPORATION LIMITED plants only the vastly superior Indian Sandalwood and not the Australian variety which is worth only a fraction of the Indian wood.

If I lived in Australia, then I would buy say 0.5 ha from TFS, pay their management fees and use the tax deduction the Fed Govt allows: See this thread.

I would also buy the TFC shares which IMHO are dirt cheap at $1.10 and attend some of their annual meetings.

http://www.tfsltd.com.au/

Annual Announcement: End of Aug. Should be good, I think.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[stolwyk]

Well positioned to regain the cents it lost.

Annual profit announcement in 3 weeks time (End of August):

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.

[stolwyk]

Increases profit by 60%.


http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/fa8fa1e6c261c0f63ba231e22d10cdd3/ASX-TFC-373426.pdf

Media: http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/875170239c9f0580b7776ecb91433457/ASX-TFC-373427.pdf

Extracts:
Increase in div to 3.4 cents for 2007 (+62%).

Extracts:
"Albert Vieille Collaboration Agreement
On 14 June 2007, TFS announced that it had concluded a Collaboration Agreement with Albert Vieille SA, a French-based essential oils and extracts company supplying the fine fragrance industry with a range of natural ingredients. Under this agreement, Albert Vieille will provide technical assistance to TFS in the establishment of a pilot processing and distillation facility at Kununurra, and will have the right to purchase 25% of the santalum album oil produced by TFS, up to a maximum of 10 tonnes per annum.

Albert Vieille is conducting trials with TFS on its trees, which will completed by the end of calendar 2007. These trials will assist in determining whether the current projected initial harvest date of 2012 can be brought forward".


“The outlook for the company is very positive, as we build on the strong performance of FY07 and capitalise on the initiatives undertaken during the year,” said Mr Wilson. “TFS remains well-placed to significantly increase its earnings over both the short and longer term, through the expansion of plantations, higher MIS sales and the progressive transformation into a vertically integrated producer.”

Reported earnings for FY08 will again be heavily skewed towards the second half of the year, when the bulk of new product sales are concluded. TFS’s current expectation is for total sales of at least 650 hectares, an increase of over 16% on FY07".

"Land Bank
On 3 November 2006, TFS announced the acquisition of Kingston Rest, a property situated 66 kilometres south of Kununurra, for $18.05 million. This property comprises a 3,000 hectare dam and 3,600 hectares of land, of which 2,400 hectares are suitable for Indian Sandalwood cultivation.

The acquisition materially increases TFS’s available land bank, which now stands at approximately 3,200 hectares and is sufficient to cover anticipated plantings through to 2011".

[lewinsky]

It is worth re-visiting TFS.
The company has repositioned itself away from reliance on Managed Investment Schemes.
It has the largest area of Indian Sandalwood plantations in the world.
Indian Sandalwood is the world's most expensive tropical hardwood and continues to grow each year.
The price is $110,000 per tonne and has a compound rise of over 18% over the last 15 year.
Trading on a PE of 5.22.
Year on year NPAT, Dividend growth over the last four years.
Sensibly geared.
Two large contracts negotiated with substantial interests in the Middle East and the States last year, with settlement this year.
Looks undervalued to me, and I have recently purchased.

LEW.

[Lego_Man]

I've owned this one for a couple of years now, havent made any on it but am just short of breakeven when you include dividends. I really like their market position - there was an absolute bloodbath in their sector over the last 3 years and they have made it out in decent shape. That alone is testament to the resilience of their business model. Interesting turnaround in fact from a domestic to an international client base, their product is in high demand from the emerging world (especially India) and that is where they are focusing. Full control of the the supply chain as they also own the Mt Romance refining centre. I believe they are now debt-free as well so would like to see further EPS growth with dilution behind us. Yields are the only question mark, but all going well i believe this company could be a blue chipper in a few years time.

[lewinsky]

Hi Legoman,

I agree. Their model has changed and in my opinion they have been dragged down by other failed MIS schemes.

Their Annual report is 91 pages long, so good somnabulistic stuff.

But, read the last page and the Chairman's and CEO reports.

I think that your patience will be rewarded.

Receiving some brokerage coverage with valuations in the $1.70's range.

Cheers

LEW.

[robo]

Hi the only thing I can see that would effect this stock is water ( lack of availability) or fire, otherwise almost bullet proof market with the rise of the middle class in asia and india, the religous use of the wood for funerals is also a very interesting proposition long term, wish I held more !

[lewinsky]

Quietly pushing up as hopefully others see the potential of this for a re -rate.

This is one of my bottom draw shares along with RGD, TOX, and IMD.

Still looks undervalued to me.

[macduffy]

I've followed this one ( at a distance ) for a while now as it was a favourite stock of a newsletter that I subscribed to at one time.

I've never had a close look at the financials but I recently read a report from one of the Aussie freebies that pointed out that TFC, whilst showing good accounting profits, had in fact made very little cash profit over a period of, I think, 5-10 years. Not the end of the story of course and it may well be that the company is now poised to turn in some very good results.

Comments would be appreciated.

[lewinsky]

Hi MacD,

Your point is very well made, however I think this is a legacy of the previous reliance on MIS rather than wholesale sales.

Gearing last year was 19.5% and interest cover was 10.5 x

The Operating Cashflow was negative $25.1 mill but this was caused by settlements due after balance date.

They announced late September that Instutional sales had settled.

As I said in an earlier post, the Chairmans and Directors Reviews are worth reading from the Annual Report.

Like any forestry investment this has risks and do your own research on Sandalwood.

LEW

[lewinsky]

Announcement out today for half yearly result,which on first glance looks positive. however I will need a few stiff whiskies to get my head around this.

If any one has any comments, they would be appreciated.

The cncern for me is the operating cash flow for TFC, which is always -ve, yet they still pay dividends.

This may be typical for this type of operation,where they have presold timber and it is a timing issue.

Johnnie Walker may help to lift the clouds.

LEW

[Sauce]

Announcement out today for half yearly result,which on first glance looks positive. however I will need a few stiff whiskies to get my head around this.

If any one has any comments, they would be appreciated.

The cncern for me is the operating cash flow for TFC, which is always -ve, yet they still pay dividends.

This may be typical for this type of operation,where they have presold timber and it is a timing issue.

Johnnie Walker may help to lift the clouds.

LEW


Hi Lewinsky,

Haha, Johnnie Walker may help to lift the clouds indeed
If you polish off the whole bottle you may even be able to rationalise an investment in this dog! :eek2:

This companies aggregate cashflows have been negative since inception. Where is the cash coming from? A quick glance at the shares on issue shows a doubling of shares in the last five years.

Raising capital to pay dividends and goodness knows what else? :scared:

Perhaps they were schooled in their 'ABC's' of finance at a certain group of Learning Centres.. if you know what I mean Lewinsky ;)

Regards,

Sauce

[Joshuatree]

They finally showed some results from mature 19-23 yr old sandalwood trees recently(not TFC'S). Oil was 1.2kg per tree(spot price re $2000 kg) much greater than the 800 gms predicted and also re 25kg heartwood per tree,not sure what this is worth. Re another 500 hectares planting /selling/managing this year. Company effective ownership of 26.5% or 979 Hectares. 3788 hect planted 2051 hect avail.Due diligence on 8000 hect ongoing. First wholesale transaction with AAA rated U.S Investor for $20 million.Oil price has risen 18% per annum for 18 years. Just need the patience of a tree until first harvest ,a few years to go.:)

[Joshuatree]

I got my timing right on reentry for this one.TFC has finally turned a corner with first harvest to start in just a FEW days.

EPS up 140%
Cash profit up 223%
Finally a new non exec chairman
New sales to beyond carbon investors
Dividend reinstated
20% jump in share price
my rentry re 43c now 58c

[blackcap]

we
I got my timing right on reentry for this one.TFC has finally turned a corner with first harvest to start in just a FEW days.

EPS up 140%
Cash profit up 223%
Finally a new non exec chairman
New sales to beyond carbon investors
Dividend reinstated
20% jump in share price
my rentry re 43c now 58c

well done Joshuatree. I am a long suffering holder too. I like the fact that cash flows are positive again. But this company is a puzzle. I mean EPS of 19 cents on a shareprice of 58 cents. There is more than meets the eye. But also good to see them post a profit after abnormals are taken out. I guess I do not know enough about the company but I do know that they were having cash flow problems a year or 2 ago and that seems to be resolved. THe big question now is... what is this sandalwood going to deliver once they start harvesting? THis could be a gold mine or it could be a steady earner. I like it that they are diversified in their field, as in have their own harvest but also sell blocks to other investors with upfront and ongoing fees etc.

[Minerbarejet]

hmmm, bit risky with trees and australian climate - could be worth a small punt especially paying a div and felling about to start. Theres an old one in the back of my head though - if it grows or flies forget it.:confused:

[Joshuatree]

Hope youre in the Black blackcap. Always been questions over how they value the plantations. New inde chairman is a huge tick. Big day today s/p jumped to 68.5c (my entry 43c recently) on good vol.

First harvest has begun on a rare substance in high demand for multiple uses.

[Minerbarejet]

:)Glad I listen to the front and not the back of my head - big ticks here - sellers drying up with support at 71 - dont have many but enough to make it interesting.:)

[blackcap]

Hope youre in the Black blackcap. Always been questions over how they value the plantations. New inde chairman is a huge tick. Big day today s/p jumped to 68.5c (my entry 43c recently) on good vol.

First harvest has begun on a rare substance in high demand for multiple uses.

Cheers Joshuatree, had a look last night in my portfolio and saw my entry price was 78c. So getting close to being in the black. But do not think I will be selling anytime soon. The purchase was a long term view to get exposure to this strange but different industry with great potential. I am waiting for the harvest to come along and see what that brings. I do see the first harvest is expected to be meager but the ones following seem to have better prospects. The presentation was interesting. I wonder if that managed to bump the price up yesterday. Because strangely it has been weak for a few days after the initial euphoria after the announcement of profit.

12.26pm now finally in the black :)

[Joshuatree]

79.5c and rising; FOMO ?

[Minerbarejet]

FOMO alright now at 83. this has gone nuts with two huge gains back to back. 2F2F have to stoploss this.

[blackcap]

FOMO alright now at 83. this has gone nuts with two huge gains back to back. 2F2F have to stoploss this.

What the hell is FOMO? Sorry not really up the play with all the acronyms floating around these days. Try not to txt if I can help it.

[Joshuatree]

Fear Of Missing Out (on first harvest results)

[Minerbarejet]

Sorry, 2F2F too far too fast.

[blackcap]

No need to apologies. Thanks guys. I was having a quiet chuckle trying to work out what they meant to no avail. FOMO, yes agree there is a bit of that. But if ppl had done homework they should have known this before the announcement. The early bird does get the worm in this case.

What do you guys reckon tomorrow... more FOMO our a rational pullback?

[Minerbarejet]

No need to apologies. Thanks guys. I was having a quiet chuckle trying to work out what they meant to no avail. FOMO, yes agree there is a bit of that. But if ppl had done homework they should have known this before the announcement. The early bird does get the worm in this case.

What do you guys reckon tomorrow... more FOMO our a rational pullback?hopefully more fomo but stoplossed in case rationality takes over:)

[Joshuatree]

R .I .P . (Return If possible) and (Rise If possible).

[Minerbarejet]

R .I .P . (Return If possible) and (Rise If possible).
rationality in pullback
45000 shares on buy side above yesterdays close and the market is two hours away.:eek2:

[blackcap]

If I may be so bold... it looks like FOMO is back at work today. Nice result and pictures about the first harvest. Very interesting to see if that $4000kg holds up. But a weaker AUD will only enhance their profits further. All costs in AUD and generally all revenue earned offshore.

[Joshuatree]

Yes First 5 hectares harvested and graded (re 139 to follow). Some good looking tree trunk sizes to my untrained eye. . Management keeping us informed now and exciting times ahead Cheers JT

[Minerbarejet]

could some chartist have a look at this and give us a rundown on what might follow? It would appear that the bollinger bands are so far apart they are in danger of dropping off the edge of the screen and the whole shebang is up 34% in a week.

[Minerbarejet]

No worries, picked it right (sofa) sold out and bought back in lower. pretty volatile stock this one.
Now for the Div, Thanks very much for the tips fellow Sharetraders:)

[blackcap]

No worries, picked it right (sofa) sold out and bought back in lower. pretty volatile stock this one.
Now for the Div, Thanks very much for the tips fellow Sharetraders:)

Not a problem Miner. Yeah it took a dive again the last 2 days. It certainly is moving around but profit taking was bound to happen at some stage. Just very hard to pick, well not really when you saw the problems it had pushing upwards towards the end and then the volume coming on to sell. But waiting for the div myself and hoping this company can really pull it off with the harvest and holding on for the long term.

[tosspot]

Ive just read through the majority of their statements over the last year and this company is really undervalued. trading a P/E of under 4, NTA at 81c, solid div yeild, massive growth and potential. hopefully we see more profit taking on Monday i would love to get in at 70c

[Minerbarejet]

Moosie, what on earth is a pister, a drunken poster,pastor or sister, perhaps a PEB fanatic?
TFC TFS in hyperdrive today, more FOMO at work. Good news with costings and production.

[blackcap]

It's a moose with gigantic hooves who can't use his smartphone properly!

Yes, great news today, still watching closely (really just wish I had money free to buy buy BUY!) ;)

Welcome on board Moosie.... Glad you and I can agree on one stock. This company has great potential, but it still needs to be realised. They had some cash flow problems a couple of years back (check the share price and chart) but they seem to have sorted this out. Their borrowings were at exorbitant levels as well. But if (and it is still a big if) the harvests can go well then the sky really is the limit. And I am talking $3 per share plus.

[Joshuatree]

Harvest news today with re 3.8% oil yield on their early lower quality plantings. This is good and yields will increase from here. Im close to 100% up and lots more ahead imo.A keepa

[Minerbarejet]

Here to stay after trading once. Nice div coming up shortly and a most interesting company indeed:)

[Joshuatree]

Hit A Buck today. Research note by Canaccord with$1.37 target

Indian sandalwood has gone up every year in value since 1990 @ $5100 to 2011 $112,000

TFC will control re 85% plus of world of Global market share of sustainable Indian Sandalwood supply.And there aint hardly any wild trees left.

Double bagger plus:t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Hit A Buck today. Research note by Canaccord with$1.37 target

Indian sandalwood has gone up every year in value since 1990 @ $5100 to 2011 $112,000

TFC will control re 85% plus of world of Global market share of sustainable Indian Sandalwood supply.And there aint hardly any wild trees left.

Double bagger plus:t_up:

[muss1]

Such an interesting case. So much potential revenue in the future if they execute well. Couple that with an increasing value of Indian sandalwood plus the potential uses for it in the future and who knows where we could end up!

I bought in after confirmation of oil yield, and quite honestly didn't expect any decent action for a long time. I suppose the market is acknowledging the company is delivering on its thesis and taking out a bit of that priced in risk

[blackcap]

Such an interesting case. So much potential revenue in the future if they execute well. Couple that with an increasing value of Indian sandalwood plus the potential uses for it in the future and who knows where we could end up!

I bought in after confirmation of oil yield, and quite honestly didn't expect any decent action for a long time. I suppose the market is acknowledging the company is delivering on its thesis and taking out a bit of that priced in risk

It is an interesting one isn't it. I think you hit the nail on the head when you state that the company may be delivering on its thesis. But that does not explain the rise yesterday and the day before from the base in the 80's? Because the info that was known was known for a while. Unless others know something that I do not. The question I have thought is.. do they have a market for this sandalwood oil? IF so and the price stays where it is this company potentially could have revenues in the billions of dollars looking forward. For those interested...

http://www.tfsltd.com.au/library/file/research-reports/Canaccord%20Genuity_26112013.pdf

[Joshuatree]

Hi blackcap They have a Market at top prices and thats a certainty imo. Its not the worlds most valuable tropical hardwood for nothing!

An essential in Relgious (incense etc) and Cultural and medicinal use in India etc is creates an ongoing certain demand.

TFC has established supply relationships with some of the worlds leading perfumers and cosmetic producers.

New demands and uses are emerging. TFS has enter into a partnership with ViroXis a US bio focused on developing and commercializing botanical pharmaceuticals derived from sandalwood. Trials onHuman papilloma Virus(in phase 2), Paediatric OTC Eczema, would create an extra price tension.

And considering TFS are 15 to 17 years ahead of any other comp well we are entering a sweet spot with more transparency from the company; finally an independent chairman for ex. And yield will keep on imroving as farming knowledge improves. Cheers JT
BTW Not ramping a double bagger ; i reentered @43c.

[blackcap]

Cheers Joshuatree, thanks for providing the research name. I managed to find it and am now reading through it. Very comprehensive analysis and the most in depth I have seen on this stock. Nice on your purchase. I bought in at 46 and have sold half at 78.5. Keeping the rest (almost free shares) for the very long term. The $1.37 target price on this stock seems very conservative as well as is explained in the report.

[muss1]

In addition to JTs comments. I think the market knows the potential of this stock. Risk has been priced in but now things are becoming clearer. Main remaining unknown (assuming the more recent crops are better etc etc) is the value of the oil/wood. The recent increase may be due to people deciding its time to buy. As I said - I wasnt expecting anything to happen for a while so could just have easily not bought in when I did. Maybe this is others deciding things are happening to the SP so nows the time to get involved with this long term growth story. Heard behaviour

[muss1]

Anyone else patiently waiting for the announcement about a long term oil deal? This is likely to reduce the risk people are factoring in with the final end market demand.. Could be a nice wee spike

[Joshuatree]

Yeah more "Good Oil" ahead. I've sold off some near the top so smelling good atm.:)

[Joshuatree]

New longterm agreement for Indian sandalwood oil with global pharmaceutical co @$4500US kg.will consume large % of oil over longterm
Increased ownership direct and indirect to 2340 ha

Value of the gross undercounted oil yield from TFS plantains up to c$3.7 billion

NTA 80c profit down 33% but hey we know its going to boom as trees mature.

[Joshuatree]

S/P Up re 9%

[muss1]

Now looking forward to the commencement of harvesting. With the recent price of oil in people's mind we might be seeing people double checking their revenue calcs and hitting the buy button

[Joshuatree]

Shiver me timbers up another 12 % to $1.50 not far off from a quad bagger. (Wont mention the loss bagger)

[tosspot]

Ive been watching a following this since 80c but went of my radar when It was around the 1.10 mark for a few months, finally jumped in today at 1.47, knowing my luck ive probably missed the run and there will be a pullback and consolidation. Heres hoping luck goes my way for once. Going from the previous news and accounts I feel a re rate to 1.80 is fair

[blackcap]

Ive been watching a following this since 80c but went of my radar when It was around the 1.10 mark for a few months, finally jumped in today at 1.47, knowing my luck ive probably missed the run and there will be a pullback and consolidation. Heres hoping luck goes my way for once. Going from the previous news and accounts I feel a re rate to 1.80 is fair

I hope you are right there tosspot. Sold a small percentage today at 1.50-1.52 to get my capital and some profit back but letting the rest run and run. There is so much potential if they do things right. The sky really is the limit.

[tosspot]

oh look at that a retracement, just my luck again

[tosspot]

Don't chase performance (unless you're daytrading!).

Long term holder now eh?
looks like it lol, mind you with the facts involved with this company I think i might only have to wait until monday until im in the green. very undervalued looking forward and back

[muss1]

Who knows if it'll retrace or not in the short term. If they execute well as blackcap said they have some serious growth potential. Maybe some more people will realise this over the weekend and it'll jump again next week. The risks involved keep getting reduced and the market keeps reacting

[Joshuatree]

First order received . 100kg @ $4,500 kg. "TFS is receiving strong int from other mkts at the same or higher pricing....."

[muss1]

Sounds like they better get planting trees. If they manage to build a significant suite of reoccurring revenue agreements they will be able to pump even more money into planting more. Upside keeps getting more exciting. I wonder if the early harvesting years will be able to meet demand

[Joshuatree]

Very much doubt it muss esp with the new medicinal demand. Gossip of a buy up happening and takeover; typical H/C talk really :)

[muss1]

A takeover would be a terrible result. Where is the gossip happening (excuse my ignorance)?

[muss1]

Thanks moosie. I'll have a browse later on. I hope it's all lies

[Joshuatree]

2000kg a year @$4500 kilo from now on increasing from 3rd year

In the world of essential oils, sandalwood oil is like gold.
Australian sandalwood producer TFS Corporation, through its US joint venture entity Santalis Pharmaceuticals, is about to ship 100 kilograms of oil to an unidentified global pharmaceutical company - at $US4,500 per kilogram.
One kilogram of sandalwood oil is equivalent to about one litre.
The oil will be used in a range of dermatology products to be launched in the United States later in 2014.
The oil is the first to be produced from TFS Corp's sandalwood plantations at Kununarra in the Ord River region of Western Australia.
The first plantation was established in 1999.
Chief executive Frank Wilson said the first shipment of oil to a major pharmaceutical customer proved the company could grow a tree, mill it, distill it and sell it at very profitable prices.
"It's a big breakthrough for us, and we think it's the first of many to come in the pharmaceutical and medicinal market," he told AAP.
For reasons of confidentiality, Mr Wilson said he could not reveal customer's identity, or the skin conditions for which the sandalwood oil would be used to treat.
But the number of global dermatological companies is very small, and includes Swiss-based Galderma, which was recently taken over by Nestle.
Sandalwood trees take about 15 years to mature, growing about eight metres tall and to over 100kg in mass, Mr Wilson said.
About 20kg of that mass is heartwood - the aromatic wood in the inner circle of the tree from which the oil is extracted.
The heartwood from a good sandalwood tree can produce 600 to 700ml of oil, or used to make fine furniture and wood carvings.
The outer wood of the tree can be turned into very fine chips and sold to the incense market.
Mr Wilson said TFS Corp's plantations were still relatively small and were expected to produce a few tons of sandalwood oil per annum over the next few years.
"We're starting to hit our straps big time, and I think it will only get better as we start to get into our bigger harvests and our bigger plantations," he said.
The prices paid for sandalwood were high due to strong global demand from the cosmetics, fragrance, pharmaceutical, furniture and art sectors, and its limited supply.
TFS Corp's sandalwood was attracting increasing attention from the pharmaceutical sector, and Chinese and other Asian wood markets, Mr Wilson said.
The Chinese wood market was willing to pay even more for sandalwood than the pharmaceutical sector, and the market in China was promising, he said.

[Joshuatree]

Have been reducing my holdings on this sp strength and demand, building cash. currently $1.62 so theres the 4 bagger.

[tosspot]

Have been reducing my holdings on this sp strength and demand, building cash. currently $1.62 so theres the 4 bagger.
I think your a bit early there, the run today was from wide coverage today and the ann last night. I dont think the huge buying will stop after one day, but fair enough a 4 bagger is awesome

[Joshuatree]

Im not in your situ but my own unique one . More to sell as well:t_up: and if you look up the announcement (re coverage)is just above your head, hope you've been along for a scented ride. May be able to get back in later as she may be getting ahead or herself with someone/s wanting a few incense sticks. cheers

[muss1]

And now it's been added to the asx200

[Joshuatree]

ASX300 May pull back now been a great run.Holding $1.62 atm

[Joshuatree]

Im all out. Last tranche @$1.71.On the watch list just incase of a retrace. TFC will really start hitting vols of oil and wood in 2 years plus so maybe getting ahead of itself; or not.Maybe someone building a position or maybe just all due to ASX 300 inclusion and first oil plus media attention. Luck to all

[tosspot]

Im all out. Last tranche @$1.71.On the watch list just incase of a retrace. TFC will really start hitting vols of oil and wood in 2 years plus so maybe getting ahead of itself; or not.Maybe someone building a position or maybe just all due to ASX 300 inclusion and first oil plus media attention. Luck to all
You regretting that yet joshuatree, Im seeing $2 on the cards

[Joshuatree]

No regrets my friend .lifes too short; i made a decision at a certain point in time which was right for me. Have also learned not to try and time tops and bottoms or be greedy. (Greedy people are unhappy people. Have a great ride and get off when the view looks great:)

[tosspot]

No regrets my friend .lifes too short; i made a decision at a certain point in time which was right for me. Have also learned not to try and time tops and bottoms or be greedy. (Greedy people are unhappy people. Have a great ride and get off when the view looks great:)
wise words mate, well said

[blackcap]

Jeez, talk about a full on, proper rerating of a stock! I eat humble pie from saying don't chase performance last week (it tastes... humbly...)!

And look at the volume today... finishing on 1.88. Booyaaaa that is one big re-rating. It has all happened so quickly its quite astonishing that a year ago this stock was in the 40 cent region. How much further can it go is the big question. I have yet to do a DCF analysis but a lot of their future earnings are well into the future so that will discount today's value a bit. Still a happy holder. Tosspot, you are looking ok now on the ones you bought the other day if you still hold them....

[tosspot]

And look at the volume today... finishing on 1.88. Booyaaaa that is one big re-rating. It has all happened so quickly its quite astonishing that a year ago this stock was in the 40 cent region. How much further can it go is the big question. I have yet to do a DCF analysis but a lot of their future earnings are well into the future so that will discount today's value a bit. Still a happy holder. Tosspot, you are looking ok now on the ones you bought the other day if you still hold them....
sure do, trouble now is finding the top. I somehow get the felling this one will just consolidate after it runs out of steam though. Have stop losses set just incase

[blackcap]

sure do, trouble now is finding the top. I somehow get the felling this one will just consolidate after it runs out of steam though. Have stop losses set just incase

I hope you set those stop losses there tosspot. Does anyone with superior knowledge know what the big slump in this stock today?

[tosspot]

I hope you set those stop losses there tosspot. Does anyone with superior knowledge know what the big slump in this stock today?
Yip was out soon as it came back to 1.80. Ive had to many loses lately to be cute trying to squeeze out extra $'s

[blackcap]

Profit taking, profit taking, profit taking. When your stock gets on HC it goes up fast... and just as fast back down!

Cheers Moosie... that makes sense. I must go and have a look at Hot Copper. I do note as a rule Australian stocks to tend to move more in either direction at a quicker rate as well so should not be so surprised.

Nice one Tosspot, glad it went well for you. Holding on to some remnants myself but they are effectively "free" and going to hold them for the long term.

[muss1]

I was expecting a more gradual retracement from the heights of a few weeks ago (similar to the past). Nothing to worry about though, the market does what it wants - company still sitting very pretty. Interesting it happened the same time as they made the announcement about clinical trials.

[blackcap]

At least the ASX, unlike the NZX, treat price divergence seriously and have asked the company TFC for a "please explain". TFC respond as expected in the "we know nothing new" trant.

[BFG]

Jeez, TFC getting dumped on today. Anyone got a reason for the massacre? No ann and no news out there. Sandalwood prices are still floating. What's up?

[macduffy]

I see that the SP has been trending down since September. No apparent reason, but continuing bad publicity in Oz over the funding of investors in the failed forestry co's such as Timbercorp may be affecting sentiment?

[blackcap]

Jeez, TFC getting dumped on today. Anyone got a reason for the massacre? No ann and no news out there. Sandalwood prices are still floating. What's up?

No Idea and think it might be a nice time to top up. But I am lucky in that I sold a few between $1.70 and $1.90 odd.

[tosspot]

they just issued 50 million options. so yea nothing much:eek2:

[BFG]

they just issued 50 million options. so yea nothing much:eek2:

Knew there was something I missed! Cheers tosspot ;)

[DarkHorse]

In response to an ASX price change query:
"The Company is not aware of any information that it considers a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of the Company's securities within the meaning of ASX"
Interesting choice of words!
I also note that the Chairman bought his first shares last week - 100K for $138K
Investors in this stock do seem somewhat manic-depressive.
Can anyone enlighten me as to the details and ramifications of the options issue?...there's not much specific information in the ASX announcement.

[gazprom1]

they just issued 50 million options. so yea nothing much:eek2:

Hey TP,

Are those options you are talking about in addition to the 55 million odd exercisable at $1.28? Those 55 million options were granted months and months ago so not sure why y'day would have been the day that caused the SP to dive.

TFC will possibly be relying on those options being exercised in the coming years...loan coming due etc. I am sure management would like to see the shares significantly higher so those options would be exercised.

Gazprom

[tosspot]

Hey TP,

Are those options you are talking about in addition to the 55 million odd exercisable at $1.28? Those 55 million options were granted months and months ago so not sure why y'day would have been the day that caused the SP to dive.

TFC will possibly be relying on those options being exercised in the coming years...loan coming due etc. I am sure management would like to see the shares significantly higher so those options would be exercised.

Gazprom

54,390,000 Expiry date:- 15 July 2018 Exercise Price:- $1.28

This is what is listed in the appendix 3B. and its under New issue, so it appears yes these are ontop,

[Taijon]

54,390,000 Expiry date:- 15 July 2018 Exercise Price:- $1.28

This is what is listed in the appendix 3B. and its under New issue, so it appears yes these are ontop,

I don't think you are right TP. Latest annual report shows 55,500,000 options issued on 1 Aug 2011 with an exercise price of $1.28 expiring on 15 July 2018.

An Appendix 3B issued on 30 September 2014 shows 1,110,000 options were exercised the previous day and the corresponding number of new shares were issued. The number of options remaining on that date is shown as 54,390,000

The Appendix 3B issued on 21 Nov 2014 shows 54,390,000 options outstanding.

[tosspot]

I don't think you are right TP. Latest annual report shows 55,500,000 options issued on 1 Aug 2011 with an exercise price of $1.28 expiring on 15 July 2018.

An Appendix 3B issued on 30 September 2014 shows 1,110,000 options were exercised the previous day and the corresponding number of new shares were issued. The number of options remaining on that date is shown as 54,390,000

The Appendix 3B issued on 21 Nov 2014 shows 54,390,000 options outstanding.


Oh, cheers for the clarification.

[BFG]

Whatever the case, $1.28 will act as support/resistance now. Next year may be slow but this company has an awesome future if they can execute right and sandalwood prices keep heading up.

[Joshuatree]

What about the termites hollowing out the trees.

[BFG]

Good announcement today. Acne is a huge priblem worldwide and benzoyl peroxide works well but dries the bejeezus out of your skin (talking from experience). It also doesn't fight inflammation. Solving both problems AND preventing growth is quite amazing! This is one of the best announcements I've heard in a long time and hope it saves many people anxiety and pain over their early years.

[Joshuatree]

Cant find the info but i think they have Termites under control(chemically?) but do have some damage and a secondary income of selling wood for carving (india etc) can be lessened if termites mark the wood. This looks promising below.

Well, a humble Aussie tree maybe the answer to stopping termites but without risking your health. Its known as false sandalwood and over millions of years, the tree has developed and become resistant to termites."An endemic tree to Australia that grows up through central NSW and Queensland, it's been known to the bushies and the farmers out there for quite some time as termite resistant wood," said Professor David Leach from the University of Southern Cross.



For many years it was suspected false sandalwood was so hard it was thought that termites may just prefer to eat softer woods - but that wasn't so.
"The product that we've been developing is an essential oil extracted from Eremophila Mitchellii," Professor Leach said.
And it works. Termites hate that essential oil - it kills them on contact and acts as a barrier to keep them at bay. The best news is its virtually non-toxic to other animals.
Bio Prospect is the Australian company that has spent millions working with the CSIRO and the university of Southern Cross to bring this termite killer to the market.
"There are a number of ways in which the product can be used, and we're not just talking about soil applied termiticide here. We're also talking about timber treatment so you know the concept of taking this compound out of timber and then putting it back onto timber for protecting that timber from attack from termites," Professor Leach said.

[BFG]

Good to see US institution following through today with all 3 options now exercised.

Clear uptrend channel has now formed. $1.75 is the top of it and I see someone tried to test it today. Definite pick for 2015 now that the short selling to well oversold levels is now done :)

[babymonster]

any other good news yesterday, but share price fell at the end..

[BFG]

any other good news yesterday, but share price fell at the end..

Was already a known known so wasn't going to do much. I see the momo boys did try to spike it though as per usual!

[babymonster]

Was already a known known so wasn't going to do much. I see the momo boys did try to spike it though as per usual!

i am new here, who are momo boys? :confused:

[macduffy]

i am new here, who are momo boys? :confused:

I took it to refer to momentum traders and attempts to get the market to push the stock higher. If successful, the theory is it would set the market up nicely to unload one's position. Momo = momentum.

;)

[babymonster]

thanks Macduffy

[BFG]

Yes, momo = momentum traders. Flashers = High Frequency Traders etc etc.

[babymonster]

it seems each time the index fells, TFC rises...

[BFG]

it seems each time the index fells, TFC rises...

Just bouncing back from oversold territory. Nice uptrend channel formed, looking for a break of 100 day MA on high volume.

[babymonster]

Yes fingers cross

[babymonster]

another good news today...

[babymonster]

looked like the big boys were pushing it down yesterday... sign....

[macduffy]

looked like the big boys were pushing it down yesterday... sign....

Was that "sign" - or meant to be "sigh"?

;)

[babymonster]

sorry sigh...

[BFG]

looked like the big boys were pushing it down yesterday... sign....

Your uptrend is still in play BM. Chart that uptrend channel and take comfort in it, you only just experienced a big boy shakeout. This puppy is still aimed higher and in good hands! :)

[babymonster]

Good to hear that. Thanks BFG. Ps. What's bm?

[babymonster]

Your uptrend is still in play BM. Chart that uptrend channel and take comfort in it, you only just experienced a big boy shakeout. This puppy is still aimed higher and in good hands! :)

I do need some good news, failed very badly on SKE today.

[Joshuatree]

Am back in today ($1.31)after being out for some time. A professional shorting company has made me uneasy (predictably) and spooked the mkt with some very heavy ,damming research and knocked the s/p down. How much is accurate we will find out in due course.Meanwhile harvesting has started on a small scale a few years back(it takes 15 years min for a tree to mature) and there are re 12,000 hectares of plantation managed and / or owned.

Glaucus Research is Short TFS Corp – Quintis (ASX: TFC _ QIN) (https://glaucusresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2017/03/GlaucusResearch-Short-TFS_Corp_Quintis-ASX_TFC_QIN_March_22_2017.pdf)

[Joshuatree]

More and a response.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/we-are-short-sellers-we-are-biased-so-is-tfs-20170322-gv3w1l.html (http://www.smh.com.au/business/we-are-short-sellers-we-are-biased-so-is-tfs-20170322-gv3w1l.html)

[Joshuatree]

Well the shorter is winning atp. S/P down another 19% to $1.06.!! Ticker has changed as well to QIN Quintis. I bought re 30 min too early ,until i saw the announcement yesterday.I had had the target price, $1.30's for some months.Watching for poss average down but watching for another response from the company esp about the claimed fake chinese company that QIN have contracts with to sell sandalwood products. Anyone one else in here?

[blackcap]

Well the shorter is winning atp. S/P down another 19% to $1.06.!! Ticker has changed as well to QIN Quintis. I bought re 30 min too early ,until i saw the announcement yesterday.I had had the target price, $1.30's for some months.Watching for poss average down but watching for another response from the company esp about the claimed fake chinese company that QIN have contracts with to sell sandalwood products. Anyone one else in here?

Have you actually seen the report from Glaucus? I read it last night. Very interesting and if their allegations/assumptions are correct, then TFC is dead. I continue to hold a small amount of TFC and may buy more if the shorters drive it down to 70 cents or thereabouts. Interesting reading that report...

[Joshuatree]

Course i have ; and posted it above! a perfect shorting hatchet job indeed. Its all depends on the big shareholders who surely did their DD? If any of them bail then we are toast if not it will blow over and the plantations are still there; a valuable resource ; and i believe thats a fact worth taking in.

[blackcap]

Course i have ; and posted it above! a perfect shorting hatchet job indeed. Its all depends on the big shareholders who surely did their DD? If any of them bail then we are toast if not it will blow over and the plantations are still there; a valuable resource ; and i believe thats a fact worth taking in.

Sorry I thought you had posted the rebuttal. Your right you would hope the large shareholders did do their DD as did the lenders. If nothing comes of it and or a firm rebuttal can be given I will top up at these levels. One wild ride though for the bottom drawer.

Im presuming they have got themselves a nice short position in the last 3-6 months at levels between $1.40 and $1.70. If so they have done very well and are going to make a killing. Interesting that their research (costly) is freely available to all and sundry. Smelling rats somewhere.

[Joshuatree]

No prob, i see the article i posted isn't visible now. heres part of the article on AFR about the new activists in Aus.

"The chief executives of Australia have been warned and no one is safe. A new, more aggressive way of short selling has hit the local sharemarket, and it's a warning that US-style activist investing has arrived in Australia.
This time round it's Frank Wilson from TFS Corporation in the firing line, but anyone could be next.
In a carefully planned, stage-managed mission calculated to do as much damage as possible on day one, short seller Glaucus Research released its latest report on Wednesday (http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/hedge-funds/hedge-fund-targets-tfs-in-big-short-20170322-gv3rie) and it put sandalwood grower TFS right in the slot.
For a start, it's no coincidence that Glaucus chose Wednesday to reveal it's latest short-selling target.

Formerly known as TFS, the company was rebranded as Quintis on the same day. The company sponsors Formula One driver Daniel Ricciardo, who is in Melbourne for the Grand Prix this weekend, and there was a cocktail party on Wednesday night to celebrate the new name.

What better way to spoil everything by telling the world the company is nothing but a Ponzi scheme, worthless and facing bankruptcy.
Cop that.
If it's all true, then investors including the Harvard Endowment Fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Church of England Commissioners are going to be wrong.
TFS has been one of the most shorted stocks on the ASX for at least a month and is already down 21 per cent so far this calendar year.

For years now, the deeds of high-profile activist fund managers such as Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman have put CEOs in the US on notice, but until now it hasn't really played out here.
But these two old hands have inspired a new generation of activist investors who will seek out and short sell suitable targets anywhere.
For sure short selling has become more of a feature on the ASX over the past few years, and so far the hedge funds that practice the dark art have been very good at it.
But to date there hasn't been the carefully orchestrated public relations exercise that Glaucus Research undertook.

That all changed on Wednesday."

[blackcap]

No prob, i see the article i posted isn't visible now. heres part of the article on AFR about the new activists in Aus.

"The chief executives of Australia have been warned and no one is safe. A new, more aggressive way of short selling has hit the local sharemarket, and it's a warning that US-style activist investing has arrived in Australia.
This time round it's Frank Wilson from TFS Corporation in the firing line, but anyone could be next.
In a carefully planned, stage-managed mission calculated to do as much damage as possible on day one, short seller Glaucus Research released its latest report on Wednesday (http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/hedge-funds/hedge-fund-targets-tfs-in-big-short-20170322-gv3rie) and it put sandalwood grower TFS right in the slot.
For a start, it's no coincidence that Glaucus chose Wednesday to reveal it's latest short-selling target.

Formerly known as TFS, the company was rebranded as Quintis on the same day. The company sponsors Formula One driver Daniel Ricciardo, who is in Melbourne for the Grand Prix this weekend, and there was a cocktail party on Wednesday night to celebrate the new name.

What better way to spoil everything by telling the world the company is nothing but a Ponzi scheme, worthless and facing bankruptcy.
Cop that.
If it's all true, then investors including the Harvard Endowment Fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Church of England Commissioners are going to be wrong.
TFS has been one of the most shorted stocks on the ASX for at least a month and is already down 21 per cent so far this calendar year.

For years now, the deeds of high-profile activist fund managers such as Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman have put CEOs in the US on notice, but until now it hasn't really played out here.
But these two old hands have inspired a new generation of activist investors who will seek out and short sell suitable targets anywhere.
For sure short selling has become more of a feature on the ASX over the past few years, and so far the hedge funds that practice the dark art have been very good at it.
But to date there hasn't been the carefully orchestrated public relations exercise that Glaucus Research undertook.

That all changed on Wednesday."

Cheers Joshuatree. Thanks for that snippet. Plenty on hotcopper on the latest on TFC as well if you are interested.

[kura]

Ive been a small shareholder for several years, for no better reason, that I liked the general principal of owning an increasingly scarce product.

I had thought that any weakness in their business, would have come from their investment in the two pharma/research companies they brought into a few years ago.
Never expected to hear that their main business was a ponzi like scheme.

Disc: Added to holdings today

[Joshuatree]

Great to hear from a phantom holder :)kura.
Im watching from the sides atpit; alot more to play out i think.Glaucus will have more filth lined up to dump. S/p around 99c last i looked with re 3 mill shares through already today.

[blackcap]

Great to hear from a phantom holder :)kura.
Im watching from the sides atpit; alot more to play out i think.Glaucus will have more filth lined up to dump. S/p around 99c last i looked with re 3 mill shares through already today.

I see Frank Wilson bought another 50k on market... not enough to stem the tide at the moment though.

[Joshuatree]

Hopefully he really loads up as this plays out; that would install a bit of confidence. He also has re 50 million shares in the company to motivate himself and to get us all away from the mercenary/pariah Glaucus. Come on fFrank!!

[Joshuatree]

9 mill shares through atp; a low of 97.5c ,current s/p $1.09. No more announcements from either party or s/h notices from big holders atp (phew). More scenes in next weeks episode. Some dubious posts on H/C sowing uncertainty, and nervousness.

[Joshuatree]

T/H has arrived for QIN to satisfy the ASX and us that all is ok ,i hope. PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01842106)

[blackcap]

T/H has arrived for QIN to satisfy the ASX and us that all is ok ,i hope. PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01842106)

Yes I see they have responded. Good on them. Maybe a few nursing hangovers from the F1 party but good to see them do something not that they need to I guess. Interesting reading some of the rebuttals on hotcopper. I wonder what QIN is going to come out with.... lets hope the fund in the US gets mud over their faces and rapidly has to unwind the shorts :)

[Joshuatree]

Yes,Glaucus have only had a 25% success rate and will have to buy back re 50 million shares to cover their short position and as Market Analysis and you pointed out this could also rerate the s/p up

[blackcap]

IM not sure Glaucus have a short position of 50 million though. That is just speculation surely? The total short position may be that much but a lot of it is the convertible note holders locking in profits.....

[Joshuatree]

Ive no idea bc.The full research note from Market Analysis is on H/C Quintis has responded today and id like to thank Glaucus for being the catalyst for such a detailed and clear report; this should rerate the stock. But I think Glaucus may well have some more "dirt" to dish so it may be round two in the next few days

[blackcap]

Ive no idea bc.The full research note from Market Analysis is on H/C Quintis has responded today and id like to thank Glaucus for being the catalyst for such a detailed and clear report; this should rerate the stock. But I think Glaucus may well have some more "dirt" to dish so it may be round two in the next few days

That's the thing isn't it... Glaucus may have more. But it could also be that they have already gone long last week and have made their money. Glaucus may be a 2 or 3 man band so even 10m shares at 30 cents per share is $3m, a pretty good pay day for 3 months work. (I'm only speculating here). Today's price action will be interesting... will the market like the response from QIN? I do not think there will be that much of a short sqeeze though as a lot of the shorts are those holding convertible notes so when the notes convert... hey presto short position is gone.

[macduffy]

The Australian is apparently reporting that QIN is under a cloud because its core Chinese customer hasn't made ny purchases this year. Is anyone able to verify or add to this?

[blackcap]

The Australian is apparently reporting that QIN is under a cloud because its core Chinese customer hasn't made ny purchases this year. Is anyone able to verify or add to this?

I believe they address this issue in their rebuttal to the ASX yesterday...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170327/pdf/43h2grd1gyxnjl.pdf

[blackcap]

MD resigns... the plot thickens.

[Joshuatree]

He will be looking out for number 1. Has trading halt lifted; seems stuck on 936297 vol @$1.21 with sellers cheaper than buyers?

[Joshuatree]

Ok rechecked ASX announcement .Earlier of announcement responding to ASX questions or the 29th. If they are not satisfied it may not reopen till wed or later. Takeover offer by FW and buddies?

[kura]

Well I spose privatising the company is one way to get those pesky shorts off your back !

[stoploss]

Well I spose privatising the company is one way to get those pesky shorts off your back !

Depending on who has gone in with FW & the price , shorts could be sweating ......

[Joshuatree]

Good couple of days, s/p holding $1.15. Looking like F/W hasn't sold any and UBS who lend the shares out or are shorting have disclosed their 5% notices. A poster (Hottuna) with shorting bias being very convincing on H/C and open about his position. You have to wonder if he is actually working for Glaucus, he is so well informed, fomenting doubt. But the Bears losing today.

[blackcap]

What does everyone make of the latest announcement? I find it troubling to say the least, smacks of incompetence at manegerial and board level at best and could be fraud at worst.

[Joshuatree]

Oh dear not another; i guess a takeover offer is not far away. Sell in May and go away? .This is a shocking month for me. The value in the plantations is there so who's going to end up with it; i hope it doesn't involve FW but it may well do.

[blackcap]

Oh dear not another; i guess a takeover offer is not far away. Sell in May and go away? .This is a shocking month for me. The value in the plantations is there so who's going to end up with it; i hope it doesn't involve FW but it may well do.

What makes you so sure there is a takeover offer coming? I think that's a lot of smoke and mirrors. Or if Frank just getting the SP down to a level where he can get the stock cheaper? Not sure I can trust anything coming out of QIN anymore.

[OutToLunch]

What makes you so sure there is a takeover offer coming? I think that's a lot of smoke and mirrors. Or if Frank just getting the SP down to a level where he can get the stock cheaper? Not sure I can trust anything coming out of QIN anymore.

That I think is the problem, QIN have lost a huge amount of credibility and who knows what else is waiting in the wings. This could have all sorts of impacts, for example what will their lenders think. This is not good.

[Joshuatree]

I guess ; not sure of anything except that there is value there in the trees and someone will want them for a song at this rate.Shorters winning this game atm.

[blackcap]

I guess ; not sure of anything except that there is value there in the trees and someone will want them for a song at this rate.Shorters winning this game atm.

The thing is... are the trees what QIN say they are. I mean their credibility is shot and as Glaucus said, they have not met expected yields and now I am almost getting to a point thinking it could be a huge ponzi scheme with worthless trees. If they can only get $500 per KG for the oil then pretty much its firewood and would value QIN at 20 cents at best? but with such large debt it will cripple them and it will be liquidation with nothing left for the shareholders. The board needs to wake up and start communicating properly.
As an anecdote I once called then TFC to investigate putting some $ into some trees that they were promoting for smaller people like me. I did not like the hard sell of the guy on the other side. Would have been about 3 years ago.
I have a small holding so nothing to lose sleep over but will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

[stoploss]

Can't help myself having a punt @ 73.5

[Joshuatree]

Irresistable ehh; wish i could bottle it.Ive been there too many times and I know that feeling but it seldom lasts in my experience. And you can average down tomorrow:)

:eek2: rrrgh I'm still in!!.

[stoploss]

Irresistable ehh; wish i could bottle it.Ive been there too many times and I know that feeling but it seldom lasts in my experience. And you can average down tomorrow:)

:eek2: rrrgh I'm still in!!.

YEP, just another lesson never , never , ever buy in a downtrend , no matter how cheap you think they are ...

[Joshuatree]

Who knows what the following days will bring; hopefully some uplifting news ; a bunch of us need it.

[blackcap]

42.5 cents today. Down another 30%. FW and board of QIN need to do some quick explaining and not hob nob with F1 royalty. This could be all over by next week and the vultures will be picking up the carcass. Really sad that they let it get to this.

[OutToLunch]

42.5 cents today. Down another 30%. FW and board of QIN need to do some quick explaining and not hob nob with F1 royalty. This could be all over by next week and the vultures will be picking up the carcass. Really sad that they let it get to this.

I'm out at 45. I almost sold at 75 yesterday and kicking myself that I didn't, but fortunately I recently halved my holding at 114 even though that was for an unwelcome loss as well. Hardly worth selling my small (and now even smaller) stake now. There's always the chance of a strong recovery from here but there are too many questions hanging over this co for my liking. My rule is, if I wouldn't buy a share that I currently hold, if I wasn't already a holder, then I should probably be selling it. May as well salvage what's left & move on....

[blackcap]

My rule is, if I wouldn't buy a share that I currently hold, if I wasn't already a holder, then I should probably be selling it. May as well salvage what's left & move on....

That's a really good adage to have. It helps to sell out at a loss when one needs to. I toyed with selling yesterday but I have such a small stake left over just going to ride it out. The aftermath of this story will be fascinating. I think Frank Wilson is feeling a bit sick right now (unless its a cunning ploy by him and associated to get the company cheap) But the longer this goes on the less chance of at TO bid I feel.

[PLYNCH]

Down to 29c on a credit downgrade.Maybe Blackcap's 20c valuation is right.

[blackcap]

Down to 29c on a credit downgrade.Maybe Blackcap's 20c valuation is right.

I think I might have to revise my valuation after yesterday to zero. The debt outweighs the value of the assets (value being what someone is willing to pay for them, not what the company says they are worth on their books). I hope there is hope but its going to be a miracle to rescue this mess. Should have seen the writing on the wall when they started hob nobbing at elite F1 parties but hey you learn and move on.

[OutToLunch]

I think I might have to revise my valuation after yesterday to zero. The debt outweighs the value of the assets (value being what someone is willing to pay for them, not what the company says they are worth on their books). I hope there is hope but its going to be a miracle to rescue this mess. Should have seen the writing on the wall when they started hob nobbing at elite F1 parties but hey you learn and move on.

I agree. The moment I saw the Formula 1 and cricket celebrity BS I should have sold immediately. At the time it reminded me of City Pacific sponsoring (I think) V8 racing just before they imploded -- fortunately with that one I got out before that happened, and miraculously at a profit too. This time I've had my arse well and truly nailed to a tree with an average overall loss of greater than 50%. Any kind of paid celebrity endorsement or sponsorship should be taken as a strong sell signal.

[percy]

Some times it pays to read the thread from the start.
Very early warnings were given by very clever/experienced posters.
30-11-2010. post # 12 Macduffy.
01-03-2011 post # 15 Sauce......greatly missed poster.

[Joshuatree]

Hi sauce i think you still read but don't post;).
I did 4 bag this the first time through so some consolidation there (4 me but not others unfortunately atp)and it aint over yet ; waiting to see if i can recover some $ back on this atp. and what FW is trying to engineer and other players to show their hands. The plantation is still there and increasing in oil, wood content . But the debt covenants may well be broken so that could be messy. BlackRock buying in etc more int days ahead.

[hardt]

I was so close to shorting Quintis back in March after the Glaucus report, yet another missed opportunity to hit it big :(

[DarkHorse]

I was quite keen years ago...compelling PEG and nice 'story'; then fortunately I got a bit older and wiser to the dangers of accounting profits (even divis) with no cashflow in sight... Also trying to put less store on a nice story - albeit it's human nature to do so. Uniqueness is alluring but hard to value... As mentioned lots of lessons here.

[Joshuatree]

Quintis Ltd (ASX code: QIN) requests a trading halt of the Company’s securities effectiveimmediately.
The trading halt is requested under Listing Rule 17.1, pending the release of:
1 an announcement of the impact of market and trading conditions on the Company’sexpected financial results and strategic outlook; and
2 the Company’s response to an ASX Aware Query received from the ASX on 11 May 2017
The Company requests that the trading halt be put in place until the earlier of the release of theannouncements on these matters by the Company or two trading days.

[macduffy]

QIN now in voluntary administration. I dodged a bullet there!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-21/sandalwood-company-quintis-appoints-administrators/9347190?section=business