Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[ratkin]

Thanks for the clarification.

Ideal scenario would be if they just scrape in with 40%

There must be many people who threw away their forms who would now like to accept.
They should send them again if they really keen on the matter

[CJ]

There must be many people who threw away their forms who would now like to accept.
They should send them again if they really keen on the matterAnyone know where I can get another form as I have no idea where mine is?

EDIT: I assume I just contact computershare (which I will try tomorrow) but if anyone has any other ideas.

[Deev8]

Anyone know where I can get another form as I have no idea where mine is?Have a look at post 222 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=182293&postcount=222) in this thread, I posted some details there.

[777]

Note that the offer price is reduced by the amount of the dividend.


IA
21/02/2008
HALFYR

REL: 0836 HRS Auckland International Airport Limited

HALFYR: AIA: Interim Result Announcement

There was solid growth in revenue and operating earnings, before interest,
tax and depreciation in the first half of the 2008 financial year. The
company also made significant progress on a range of key business development
projects, including completion of the domestic terminal renovation,
development of the international terminal and commencement of the first stage
of the northern runway.

Operating earnings before interest, tax and depreciation (Operating EBITDA)
increased 7.3 per cent to $135.396 million. The company has expensed $5.8
million of costs associated with the various ownership proposals considered
over the last year. As a result of these costs, combined with increased
interest and depreciation charges, profit after tax was down 3.9 per cent to
$47.590 million. On a normalised basis, after adjusting for the ownership
costs and a reduction in the company's long-term incentive plan provision,
profit after tax increased 5.1 per cent to $52.072 million.

There was a strong performance at the revenue line, with total revenue for
the first half up 7.9 per cent to $172.325 million.

Auckland Airport chairman, Tony Frankham, said, "The company has delivered
another good result, particularly in terms of total revenue. Growth was
achieved across all major revenue lines, with retail, car parking and rental
income achieving double digit growth. However, the company also experienced
increased operating expenses, as well as some one-off costs associated with
the ownership proposals. As expected, there was also an increase in
depreciation and interest costs directly associated with the company's
investment programme, combined with higher interest rates".

Total passenger movements increased 4.9 per cent to 6,449,543. There was
strong growth in domestic passengers which increased 8.7 per cent, driven in
particular by the start of Pacific Blue's domestic services. International
passenger movements (excluding transits and transfers) increased 3.2 per cent
to 3,267,504. There was solid growth in New Zealand and Australian
travellers. Some of the other key markets, such as the United Kingdom and
the United States of America, showed declines. However, there was continued
strong growth from new markets such as China and India.

Aeronautical revenues increased following the completion of several
significant terminal expansion and security projects last year and new
aeronautical prices which applied from 1 September 2007. The company's
retail activities performed very well. Retail income was up 10.4 per cent.
This resulted from new store openings, successful concession tenders,
enhanced service offerings and increased passenger spend rates. Car parking
income, up 15.5 per cent, benefited in particular from strong trading at the
domestic terminal. Rental income was 15.7 per cent higher, driven strongly
by new rental streams from properties completed over the last year.

Don Huse, chief executive, said, "The company has continued to make
significant progress across a broad range of key initiatives over the last
six months. This included the completion of the "extreme makeover" and
upgrade of the domestic terminal precinct in December. Progress continues on
the expanded arrivals project (to be completed mid-2008) and the first stage
of the new Pier B at the international terminal (to be completed September
2008). Engineering work has also commenced on the first stage of the
northern runway. This is expected to be operational in early 2011. Delivery
of these major projects has enabled the company to deliver significant value
uplifts in terms of business development, service offerings and related
pricing adjustments."

Mr Frankham said, "The directors remain positive about the long-term growth
prospects for the business. The company is ideally placed to benefit from
the expected significant growth in traffic, particularly in the Asia-Pacific
region, over the medium-term. Over the past four years, the company has
worked hard and effectively to put in place the much needed capacity and
enhanced service standards to leverage this growth. Our major carriers are
actively expanding their fleets and introducing new routes and services.

In the short-term, however, the impact of the global macro-economic
environment combined with a slowing in the domestic economy, reduce the
expected level of passenger growth for the remainder of this year. Although
there is strong growth in domestic passenger numbers, there are signs of a
levelling off in international passenger growth, with a higher New Zealand
currency and higher oil prices being important factors. The current global
credit tightening is also expected to further increase the company's funding
costs over time.

The directors have announced a fully imputed dividend of 5.75 cents per
share, compared with last year's interim dividend of 3.75 cents per share.
As a prudent measure, the directors have increased the interim dividend by
2.00 cents per share in order to utilise the surplus imputation credits that
would be lost if the current takeover offer from Canada Pension Plan
Investment Board (CPPIB) is successful. It is expected that the final
dividend will be reduced by an amount of 2.00 cents per share, reflecting the
increased interim dividend paid to shareholders now.

The interim dividend has a record date of 7 March 2008 and will be paid out
to shareholders on 12 March 2008, the day before the CPPIB offer closes.

The terms of the partial takeover offer from CPPIB provide that no dividend
shall be declared or paid during the offer period, which is a standard term
of a takeover. The offer terms also provide that CPPIB may waive this
condition with the result that the offer price per share shall reduce by the
amount of the dividend. CPPIB has consented to the payment of this interim
dividend and the adjustment to the offer price.

Accordingly, the impact of this is that the offer price under the CPPIB offer
will be reduced by the amount of the interim dividend from $3.6555 per share
to $3.5980 per share.

[777]

AIA
21/02/2008
TAKEOVER

REL: 0936 HRS Auckland International Airport Limited

TAKEOVER: AIA: Update on CPPIB Partial Takeover Offer

As of yesterday, 20 February 2008, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
(CPPIB) has advised that acceptances have been lodged for 81,422,529 shares,
representing 6.66 per cent of the total shares in the company. Of those
acceptances, 66,146,852 shares have been lodged in the CPPIB acceptance
facility. These shares can be withdrawn by shareholders prior to the close
of the offer.

89,267,833 shareholder votes, representing 7.30 per cent of the total shares
in the company, have also been received. Of the votes received to date,
57.62 per cent are against CPPIB acquiring a 40 per cent stake and 42.38 per
cent are in favour of the offer.

Auckland Airport shareholders are required to make two decisions - whether to
sell their shares into the offer, and whether to vote for or against CPPIB
becoming a 40 per cent shareholder. CPPIB needs 39.2 per cent acceptances
and a majority vote in order to complete the transaction.

[Zaphod]

AIA
25/02/2008
TAKEOVER

REL: 0857 HRS Auckland International Airport Limited

TAKEOVER: AIA: Airport Board Updates Recommendation to Shareholders

The directors of Auckland Airport today unanimously recommended that
shareholders should sell their shares into the takeover offer from the Canada
Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) for $3.6555 per share (less the 5.75
cents per share interim dividend to be paid next month ).

However directors are not unanimous on whether shareholders should vote in
favour or against CPPIB acquiring up to 40 per cent of the company.

A majority of the Airport board, comprising Tony Frankham, Keith Turner,
Lloyd Morrison, and John Brabazon, are maintaining their recommendation for
shareholders to vote against CPPIB acquiring 40 per cent of Auckland Airport
as they believe the shares in the company are likely to be worth more longer
term without CPPIB involvement.

Two directors, Richard Didsbury and Joan Withers, believe that shareholders
should vote i
n favour of the offer as the price offered by CPPIB is unlikely
to be available to shareholders in the foreseeable future.

For the transaction to proceed, the Takeovers Code requires a majority of
shareholders who vote to approve CPPIB acquiring a 40 per cent stake. If this
approval is not gained, the bid cannot proceed, regardless of the number of
shares offered for sale.

Chairman of the board, Tony Frankham, said all the directors had carefully
considered whether to revise their advice to shareholders on both elements of
the transaction in light of the change in financial markets.

"All directors acknowledge that the market conditions have changed
significantly since this bid was announced and this key factor has given rise
to the need for directors to update their earlier recommendations.

"We all agree that shareholders would be unwise not to realise part of their
holding at the favourable partial offer price if the partial offer receives
approval to proceed.

"Each director has
also carefully considered a wide range of other relevant
factors in reaching their own decision in relation to the "voting" element of
this bid.

"Directors who continue to recommend that shareholders should object to the
takeover are of the view that the long term value of Auckland Airport has not
fundamentally changed.

"They regard Auckland Airport as a strategic asset with long term horizons
and consider ownership should not be determined by shorter term market
fluctuations.

"They believe that over the longer term the value of Auckland Airport shares
is likely to be greater without CPPIB having a 40 per cent stake which gives
it effective control."

Mr Frankham said those board members have consistently said that the partial
offer does not fully reflect the longer term value of Auckland Airport and
despite further presentation from CPPIB do not accept that their introduction
as a significant minority shareholder will assist the company in any material
manner.

"As a result they
maintain their view that, when considered on a longer term
basis, on balance the CPPIB partial offer is not in the best interests of
shareholders."

He said that Richard Didsbury and Joan Withers believe that the price offered
by CPPIB to shareholders for some of their shares is unlikely to be available
for the foreseeable future.

"They believe that the partial offer of $3.6555 per share (less the 5.75
cents per share interim dividend to be paid next month) is even more
attractive today, at a time when shareholders are faced with uncertain global
conditions that may continue for some years to come.

"The impact of those conditions does in their view put downward pressure on
the valuation of the company and given global economic conditions, a more
favourable offer in all aspects is unlikely to be available to shareholders
in the near term.

"Therefore on balance, they feel that the certainty of selling 40 per cent of
the company for significantly more than its current trading price ou
tweighs
the disadvantages of bringing on board a significant minority shareholder
without material aeronautical or tourism connections.

"These directors therefore recommend that shareholders vote to approve the
offer and sell their shares".

As already advised, the directors consider it is not possible to identify an
appropriate party and present an alternative proposal to shareholders before
the expiry of the CPPIB bid period on 13 March.

Mr Frankham said that if the CPPIB bid fails, the board will continue to seek
a suitable cornerstone shareholder to take a smaller stake in the company
however that process may take some time given the current state of financial
markets.

"We envisage that it will continue to be challenging to meet all of the
variously stated objectives of shareholders in relation to percentage
holding, capital restructuring and non dilution of the Council interests," he
said.

- ends -

For further information, please contact:
Lucy Powell
Head of Communications
+
64 9 256 8866
+64 21 995 710

Footnote:
Auckland Airport has declared a fully imputed interim dividend of 5.75 cents
per share payable on 12 March 2008 to shareholders on the register as at 7
March 2008. As the interim dividend will be paid prior to the close of the
CPPIB offer, decreasing the equity value of Auckland Airport by an equivalent
amount per share, the offer price will be adjusted in accordance with the
terns of the takeover offer by the amount of the interim dividend.
Accordingly, the offer price will be reduced by 5.75 cents per share from
$3.6555 per share to $3.5980 per share. It is expected that the final
dividend will be reduced by an amount of 2.00 cents per share, reflecting the
increased interim dividend paid to shareholders now.
End CA:00160912 For:AIA Type:TAKEOVER Time:2008-02-25:08:57:49

[Toddy]

It is unusual for a public listed company to publically disclose which way board members are voting. If the board is not one team, then it is probably better that everyone takes the money and runs.

I want IFT to sell up and take the short term profit from this deal. WIA offers IFT shareholders more than enough exposure and return from the airport sector in New Zealand.

[Tanger]

The Government announced today that they are changing the tax laws in relation to "stapled securities". Isn't this what the Canadians were proposing to use under their scheme of arrangement (ie a share in the new Airport company and a "debt" instrument stapled to that share? So, a bit of good news for them today (the Board changing their recommendation), but then this other news which may affect the way they are able to structure the company going forward. Mind you, that is a long way off, and shareholders should focus on the two questions they are being asked at the moment, that is, should the Canadians be allowed to hold 40% and do you want to sell shares to them at $3.655 (less interim dividend).

[Deev8]

The Government announced today that they are changing the tax laws in relation to "stapled securities". Surely nobody really thought that the government would allow that much of it's tax take to evaporate though a piece of financial engineering like this.

[CJ]

Silly question, but how does this affect the offer?

Will the canadians now pull out or is it just that the future returns (if the proposal is accepted) will be less now that previously calculated.


Note: If you have lost your voting forms, call computershare and they will put you through to a dedicated help desk who will resend forms.

[brettdale]

So labour changed the law overnight, so the deal wont go ahead???????

This has cost me thousands of dollars.

[minimoke]

Down 9.9% to $2.55 today on 84 trades so lots of people not too happy. The converse being people happy to buy on the prospect of doing well!

[brettdale]

Sack the current board

Sack the board??????

Sack the Freakin governemnt!!!!!!!!

They are the ones who passed this law over night, and cost me thousands, and cost my friend over 30 thousand dollars.

[brettdale]

down to 2.48

[CJ]

They are the ones who passed this law over night

Passed what law - it was only a press conference!!!

[peat]

heres the article CJ

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10494569

perhaps Labour is forcing some sort of realisation that if we continue to sell our local assets for small short term gains we'll never have anything left. l/t holders may thank them one day

or just protecting the tax base?

Odd that this was so cloak and dagger tho , the two offers for AIA were both based on this stapled concept, so they had plenty of opportunity to enact the legislation prior to now. so it kind of seems as if it has been done specifically to prevent this offer.

[Zaphod]

Passed what law - it was only a press conference!!!

I believe (and please correct me if I'm wrong) that it is intended to be retrospective and apply to securities issues from today onwards.

Quite a cunning move.

[CJ]

I believe (and please correct me if I'm wrong) that it is intended to be retrospective and apply to securities issues from today onwards.

Quite a cunning move.

Cunning indeed. My point was that a minority government has in effect made a legislative change by press conference. Who needs a majority.

The new legislation, if ever enacted (and i have no reason to doubt that it will), will apply from yesterday.

[Toddy]

Cunning indeed. My point was that a minority government has in effect made a legislative change by press conference. Who needs a majority.

The new legislation, if ever enacted (and i have no reason to doubt that it will), will apply from yesterday.

Central Auckland effectively voted the Labour Govt in last term. Now the Govt is returning the favour by making sure that their Airport stays in New Zealand hands.

Everyone should be happy!

I, like the AIA board reserve the right to change my mind, again. I'm all for IFT taking minority control of AIA through whatever structure is possible at the cheapest price possible. And, it isn't anywhere near $3.65

Step up to the plate Loyde. Offer $2.90.

[Morpheus]

I recall stories in the media last year (NBR I think) about a government crack down on staples - they started looking at it when the Dubai deal was on the table. But the timing of this couldn't be worse.

[shasta]

Central Auckland effectively voted the Labour Govt in last term. Now the Govt is returning the favour by making sure that their Airport stays in New Zealand hands.

Everyone should be happy!

I, like the AIA board reserve the right to change my mind, again. I'm all for IFT taking minority control of AIA through whatever structure is possible at the cheapest price possible. And, it isn't anywhere near $3.65

Step up to the plate Loyde. Offer $2.90.

Toddy

Great thinking, Infratil would be a perfect fit for AIA, maybe with a 10.01% stake & Lloyd on the board?

Would certainly have me interested in IFT again.

I heard John Banks last night saying, for small shareholders it was a good deal (the Canadian offer), but not for the Auckland council & that he promised NOT to sell a single share.

IFT have shown thru there 66% ownership of the Wgtn airport, that these agreements can work (although they have had there fair share of problems with the Wgtn council too!).

Disc: Nil AIA - but don't want it sold to foreign ownership.

[Toddy]

Do they have deep enough pockets?

On their own, no they don't. But they know the people that have and could put together a deal for a decent minority stake.

[Toddy]

Its still on, 'notwithstanding '.

TAKEOVER: AIA: Announcement by CPP Investment Board 02:13pm
AIA
26/02/2008
TAKEOVER

REL: 1412 HRS Auckland International Airport Limited

TAKEOVER: AIA: Announcement by CPP Investment Board

The following announcement has been provided by CPP Investment Board in
relation to Government stapled securities announcement

AUCKLAND, NZ (26 February 2008): The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
(CPPIB) confirms that it is continuing with the partial takeover offer for
shares in Auckland International Airport Limited (AIAL) notwithstanding the
New Zealand Government's announcement yesterday that it proposes to amend the
taxation laws relating to stapled securities.

The partial takeover offer does not involve the issue of stapled securities.
Stapled securities were only to be issued under the proposed amalgamation
which would be considered by the AIAL board and shareholders in due course
after the completion of the partial takeover.

It has always been CPPIB's intention for any amalgamation proposal to be
implemented with IRD approval through a binding ruling. CPPIB intends to
monitor the progress of the proposed taxation changes and will be consulting
with IRD on the details of the proposed changes.

If successful in its partial takeover offer, CPPIB looks forward to working
with AIAL, the New Zealand Government and the New Zealand tourism industry in
the continuing development of New Zealand as a leading tourism destination.

[ratkin]

Good on them , lets hope they mean it.

[Toddy]

The market has little confidence, sp still dropping after announcement.

Yes, looks like a round of renewed selling. Volumes increasing again. Maybe some investers just cannot afford another loss if the deal falls over.

[AMR]

Almost as bad as the time Helen advised AIR shareholders to "hold on to their shares" before pulling the carpet from underneath them with a valuation 40% below the share price.

[ratkin]

Any idea what price the stock will settle at if the deal fails?
I would quite like to built a long term holding but suspect there could be quite a fall if the deal fails.

Buying now could lead to a decent gain if deal goes through , hard to figure this one out

[peat]

hard to imagine it falling below NTA surely?
which is what? findata says 1.91.
I cant quite understand why the s/p hasnt rocketed back up after confirmation that Canadians still buying and that legislation doesnt change things.

[dsurf]

So labour changed the law overnight, so the deal wont go ahead???????

This has cost me thousands of dollars.

reminds me of the TEL unbundling fiasco - wonder which other top 10 company (& at least half the investors) is next to get screwed by this labour government?

Also I believe (could be wrong) the Dubai offer had the same stapled securities but no-one seemed to care??

[peat]

yes the Dubai offer did have the stapled securities Dsurf

I wonder if the complexity of these offers is what is causing resistance/disbelief/confusion/reluctance.

if people want something why dont they simply stand in the market!! ?

[CJ]

if people want something why dont they simply stand in the market!! ?Stand in the market can only get them up to 20%. More than that and the stand would be conditional on getting over 90%.

Wonder why they dont make a stand for 20% and then sell into their own offer (I assume they cant do this??).

[Deev8]

Any idea what price the stock will settle at if the deal fails?
I would quite like to built a long term holding but suspect there could be quite a fall if the deal fails.At $2.45 the price is back to where it was prior to the excitement that began in May last year.

http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/z?s=AIA.NZ&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s

[ratkin]

Why are the canadians bothering? This would of been a good excuse to walk away.
With world markets down so much there must be plenty of better bargains about

[Deev8]

wonder which other top 10 company (& at least half the investors) is next to get screwed by this labour government? The only shareholders who will get screwed by this proposed legislation are those who don't pay New Zealand income tax. The remainder of us, who actually do pay tax, should benefit because we won't eventually get clobbered by higher taxes to make up the shortfall.

[Deev8]

Why are the canadians bothering? This would of been a good excuse to walk away.They have made a formal offer and they can't just 'walk away'. The scheme to replace ordinary shares with stapled securities was not a condition of their offer.

[COLIN]

I cant quite understand why the s/p hasnt rocketed back up after confirmation that Canadians still buying and that legislation doesnt change things.

I share your puzzlement, Peat.
My stance is this: There must now be a strong chance that the Canadians will reach the 40% and that the votes in favour will go over 50%. The number of shares offered to them will likely be not many more than 40% so there will be very little scaling back. Therefore willing sellers, like me, should get most of our shares away at the offer price, leaving a very small portion of our holding exposed to the shrinking market price. So, those who have been scooping up today's bounty are onto a winner, at the expense of the wimps.
No doubt someone will attempt to shoot holes in my thinking, but it seems a pretty fair argument and I have no intention to withdraw my offer (under the Facility Acceptance) so that I can dump on the market.
And while I'm at it: I fail to understand this xenophobic attitude that several have expressed on this thread. Thank goodness the Scots don't seem to have felt the same way about IFT taking control (NOT 40%) of Glasgow/Prestwick Airport, or the English about Kent, or the Poles about Lubeck, or the Uruguayans about NZS buying up thousands of hectares of their good dairy land - and there are countless other cases of Kiwi investment abroad.................let capital flow freely, I say, unless there is a manifestly strong case against it on the grounds of a particular country's strategic interests, e.g. North Korean ownership of a uranium mine (should we ever uncover one!)

[dsurf]

Colin - not shooting you down but I think things have changed. With stapled securities the returns for Auck city council (manakau is zenophobic & financially illiterate) would have been far larger - 20m pa or so - this would mean less rates to be paid - so there were good reasons for Auck city to approve the bid & not sell into it. With the end of stapled securities there is no real compelling case for Auck council to "approve" the bid. This means they will oppose it (as per john banks article in the herald a week before the "decision" - we have as much democracy as Iraq ). So Auk has 12.5% , Manuakau 10?, IFT & Govt 10?
= 32.5% who will not approve, so reaching 50% seems less likely.

[COLIN]

Colin - not shooting you down but I think things have changed. With stapled securities the returns for Auck city council (manakau is zenophobic & financially illiterate) would have been far larger - 20m pa or so - this would mean less rates to be paid - so there were good reasons for Auck city to approve the bid & not sell into it. With the end of stapled securities there is no real compelling case for Auck council to "approve" the bid. This means they will oppose it (as per john banks article in the herald a week before the "decision" - we have as much democracy as Iraq ). So Auk has 12.5% , Manuakau 10?, IFT & Govt 10?
= 32.5% who will not approve, so reaching 50% seems less likely.
Agreed less likely, but still quite on the cards. And even if the present deal falls over I am sure there will be further positive developments; thus, yesterday's sell-off seems overdone. ("Buy-up" for the wiser ones, I feel.)
We shall see.

[dsurf]

yesterday was overdone - the Canadians will still want a stake and maybe the model they are working on has reduced to $3.00 or thereabouts. I would suggest that if this 40% bid fails they will return with a $3.00 offer for 19.9% and then play a game like Origin stalking CEN - long way to go & a fund with billions

[Grimy]

Sorry to ask as I'm sure the answer is in thread somewhere, but what date do the voting papers have to be returned by?

[ratkin]

Looks as if the acceptances are starting to gather some momentum.
Most the big funds will leave it to the last minute, looks like it could be very close call.

[macduffy]

Sorry to ask as I'm sure the answer is in thread somewhere, but what date do the voting papers have to be returned by?


To be received by 13 March.

[peat]

Fran O'Sullivan: Airport game may be over

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10495541



The Mounties will still need to get Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval by April 30, and the two Cabinet ministers likely to make the final assessment are not expected to apply the usual rubber stamp.

The Canadians' bid is caught under two provisions of the overseas investment rules. Any acquisition by a foreign buyer of more than 25 per cent of a company, where the value of the securities or assets exceed $100 million, must be scrutinised by the OIO. But where sensitive land is involved, the Finance Minister (Michael Cullen) and Land Information Minister (David Parker) have the final say.

[Zaphod]

I wouldn't put it past those two to veto it. Labour has already made a pre-emptive strike against the deal with their retrospective tax changes.

[macduffy]

I wouldn't put it past those two to veto it. Labour has already made a pre-emptive strike against the deal with their retrospective tax changes.


Yes, it has that smell about it now.
Although AIA is my biggest NZX holding and I have accepted the offer, I somehow won't be too upset if Aunty H and Uncle M say "No" to it. If so, AIA will continue to be a great cornerstone for my NZ portfolio.

:cool:

[Toddy]

The reality is that the Canadian deal is all but over.

An AIA/IFT deal may be better odds.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4422789a13.html

[Steve]

An AIA/IFT deal may be better odds.

Not if the various councils don't want a merger...

Where to now for the shareprice?

[Toddy]

According to One Network News tonight the Govt is going to enforce (amend) something called the 'overseas investment act' to prevent the sale of AIA to an overseas party.


Hence, its all over!.

[COLIN]

According to One Network News tonight the Govt is going to enforce (amend) something called the 'overseas investment act' to prevent the sale of AIA to an overseas party.


Hence, its all over!.

Hugh Chavez couldn't have done a better job! Wonder if he has heard of Helen?

[macduffy]

Stand by for a great opportunity to buy AIA shares!

;)

[CJ]

I could accept the tax changes as a means of protecting the tax base, but really, what do they think they are doing. Trying to ruin foreign investment in NZ? Maybe they are?

[minimoke]

They are also ruining opportunities for local investors to put their money where they think they can make a return. Why should NZ’ers invest in something if the Government is going to come along and rip the ground from under them. I’ve lost count how many companies this government has interfered with.

[beacon]

A step back in time.

[barnsley bill]

Another group of voters who Labour have lost.
This govt yet again shows it's contempt for private property rights. watch the price plummet today

[CJ]

They are also ruining opportunities for local investors to put their money where they think they can make a return. Why should NZ’ers invest in something if the Government is going to come along and rip the ground from under them. I’ve lost count how many companies this government has interfered with.

Agree, not that we want them as shareholders but if the Govt blocks the deal, they should have to purchases the shares on the same basis (ie. the only way to blcok being a first right of refusal).

Otherwise they may sink the deal, ruin the company and then come along like a white knight just like they did with AIRNZ - Thanks Cullen & Helen

[Toddy]

What is the Govts objective here. According to the news media Cullen has been quoted as saying 'this is what the public wants'. But one major problem, the public does not own the asset, the shareholders do. The public are more interested in 15 school boys running around a paddock in tight shorts kicking a piece of pig skin than investing in assets.


I cannot wait until Helen and Cullen are voted out and we have a Govt that understands how world economics actually works. Atleast Keys has lived offshore and understands that other countries don't give a stuff about a small Island in the Pacific.

Shame on you (again) Labour. You really know how to make us all look like sheep farmers.

[Toddy]

My guess is that $2.10 will be the new fair value of AIA on the market today.

Those holding the warrants will be hurting.

[brettdale]

I would of gotton rich to , if it wasn't for this meddling Government.

What a pack of freaking idiots.

They have totally ruined forigen investment, how can one government be so xenophobic.

Lets be real here, there is one reason labour did this, it wasnt to save our country's assests, it was to look good to,their socialist base, to come across as, we are sticking up for the little New Zealanders, our airport belongs to us.

What a load of BS, they have cost so many NewZealanders so much today, with their bigoted policies.

[brettdale]

What is the Govts objective here. According to the news media Cullen has been quoted as saying 'this is what the public wants'. But one major problem, the public does not own the asset, the shareholders do. The public are more interested in 15 school boys running around a paddock in tight shorts kicking a piece of pig skin than investing in assets.


I cannot wait until Helen and Cullen are voted out and we have a Govt that understands how world economics actually works. Atleast Keys has lived offshore and understands that other countries don't give a stuff about a small Island in the Pacific.

Shame on you (again) Labour. You really know how to make us all look like sheep farmers.

Brillant post, thanks for writing it, you sumed it up, much better than I could.

[minimoke]

Well done Labour down another 20% this morning thanks to your meddling. This company is owned by private citizens and the hard done by ratepayers of local Auckland cities. You have well and truly knackered these poor sods!

[CJ]

My guess is that $2.10 will be the new fair value of AIA on the market today.


The market say more like $2.00. An overreation? What is the true value of AIA sans bid?

[redzone]

this is Air New Zealand all over again....I wonder if the NZ S uper fund is buying up large today on behalf of the Labour Government

[BDLBOM]

Michael & Helen don't care about what is best for NZ. They only care about a populist move that will probably get them more votes in election year.

[STRAT]

No Labor Supporters here then eh?

I feel for you guys

[troyvdh]

That nasty lttle prick will be having a ball today..quietly chuckling away to himself about all those "rich pricks" loosing dosh....the more folk get into him and his boss.... he loves it.

[Tanger]

I wish the Canadian's could sue our Government over this. Fair enough if they had pushed this through immediately when the Dubai bid was lodged, but they wait until just over a week before the offer is about to close. First they try the old "close the tax loophole" trick, and when that didn't work, they have to take these measures. If Helen wants to buy my shares for $3.65, then she can have them, if she doesn't want to pay that, then let the shareholders decide if they want to sell or not. It is a bit like Cullen overtaxing employees for years on the basis that he know best, and people will make the wrong decisions if you leave it up to them.

This is just another example of why all of our best people are moving to Australia. At least the airport is getting some use.

[Zaphod]

No Labor Supporters here then eh?

I feel for you guys

If there were any, I suspect that there is even less now, given the latest moves by our great Socialist protectors.

MacDuffy might be right though; this could present a buying opportunity, however I believe this is probably a long term proposition. Overall I would be very cautious to re-enter AIA at all given the ever-present dark hand of Labour.

[Contrarian]

Gidday

Vote ACT!

I didn't mind them (Cullen) until I sent off my acceptance yesterday, Prik cost me some money.

The amalgamation loophole must have been interesting.

[patsy]

What a pack of freaking idiots.

They have totally ruined forigen investment, how can one government be so xenophobic.




Freaking idiots, yes. Xenophobic, no (just look at the hordes of 3rd world faces that Labour has allowed to come in to help "build a knowledge economy" by setting up plenty of convenience stores in Auckland's CBD).

I admit I'm really scared of all of the legislation they may pump through in the next 10 months before they are booted out. The same happened three years ago just before the elections.

[RossT]

Well done labour! Excellent move, that I fully support. Who here would own a house and happily sell their front gate and driveway to the next door neighbour?

It's amazing all the pseudo political bull**** that some people start spouting when they have lost money on the stockmarket.

It's the stock market people, not the "it's my right to make money or I'll cry" market.

[CJ]

I wish the Canadian's could sue our Government over this. Fair enough if they had pushed this through immediately when the Dubai bid was lodged, but they wait until just over a week before the offer is about to close.

Exactly.

If they want to have assets which must remain in the NZ hands, why not produce a list so we know which companies not to invest in. If this ends up like AIRNZ (which I dont think it will), I am going to be very annoyed.

[spook]

Well done labour! Excellent move, that I fully support. Who here would own a house and happily sell their front gate and driveway to the next door neighbour?

It's amazing all the pseudo political bull**** that some people start spouting when they have lost money on the stockmarket.

It's the stock market people, not the "it's my right to make money or I'll cry" market.


Whether you think we're a bunch of sore losers or not Ross, the government has changed the rules halfway through the game. The ABs would be pretty sore if the ref changed the rules at half time to suit the other side, and so are we. If they didn't want AIA sold, they've had nearly a year to say so.

The Labour Govt in the 70s put on a rent freeze because they didn't like landlords making money, and all the landlords sold up and went elsewhere, causing a huge shortage of rental properties. That's what happens when people who don't understand meddle in a free market!!! Roll on October

[Tanger]

Although this latest Government move may have spelled the end of the road for the Canadian bid, shareholders should still vote on the two issues at hand. I would personally like to see them now get the 40% they need and the majority vote to hold those 40% and then force the Government to actually take a position. By failing to get across the line, the Government doesn't have to rule, and therefore they can stand behind the old line "we don't know which way we would have ruled".

I'm now voting yes to both issues and would like to see the Government be forced into having to make a call. That way, at least other overseas investors will know where they stand with our Government (at least this week before they pass some more retrospective legislation and change the playing field again).

[troyvdh]

Ross...I think your missing the point.Time and time again this outfit has displayed an arrogance and naked hatred to those who make dosh.And for those who put there dosh at risk.
They are hypocrites in the extreme.A year ago comrade helen said (when the unions were asking for a min of 5%).."huh they dont need a payrise ..we are going to give it to them"..they Know best you see.This year prick cullen called for employers to pay more !!!!!
Ironically here in NZ the harder you work the more tax you pay !!!! no surprise then our productivty is getting WORSE every year..and yet no capital gains !!!! and this is supposedly a LABOUR govt.

And to top this off they gleefully take heaps of dosh of a NZ tax aviodant twit in Monaco !

Yep this lot are the true gems.

[voltage]

is AIA a screaming buy today?????

[macduffy]

Good point, Tanger.
If shareholders feel strongly about this they should force the government to actually exercise the ministers' veto.
Although I strongly object to this meddling ( I was a Telecom holder too and the govt. didn't offer to buy us out of that one either when they changed the rules mid-game), I'd have to say that this latest move only brings us more into line with other countries who " protect " their key assets. Think of Australia and Woodside/Shell etc.

Meanwhile, I'm looking hard at adding to my AIA holding.

;)

[The Great Gold Guru]

AIA was the cornerstone of my portfolio about a year or so back but I was desperate to get into gold stocks so sold when the stock jumped over $3 on the first bid approaches. If the Canadians think the long term is so rosy and are prepared to pay $3.59 then I will trust their judgement and say that at $2.18 the stock again should be bought. I have just purchased 20,000 shares at $2.17 for the long term. Feels good to again be a shareholder. National will romp home later this year , I voted Labour 3 years ago, will be ticking the "blue box" this time round.

[warthog]

Some of those here with their knee-jerk reactions to what the government have done might pause for reflection.

The hog is somewhat endeared to free markets, but there are instances in which it makes no sense at all to let the market hold sway and hand over control over strategic assets to a party that only has purely economic interests.

It is a wide topic, to be sure, but intuitively the hog posits that most kiwis would - on balance - prefer that key assets be kept in at least local ownership. Sometimes, this is a trade-off against a larger business and improved economic "performance".

So just a suggestion to reflect a bit on the larger picture, of NZ as part of a global economic system and recognition of the fact that the current way the global economy is organised, ownership dictates control.

@Spook: there is always a game going on somewhere, so the government can always be accused of shifting the goalposts. Realistically-speaking, how often does this happen? Not much.

@RossT: nice analogue - it is about control.

disc: the hog is a politically-unaligned voter.

[The Great Gold Guru]

Fresh announcement out ... Canadians stressing they only want to be minority shareholders ... bit of luck they may just bid something like $3 for 19.9% and be done with it , no reason why they couldn't get to 19.9% without Govt intervention is there ?? ... at 218 the stock looks good value to me. BUY.

[BRICKS]

Some of those here with their knee-jerk reactions to what the government have done might pause for reflection.

The hog is somewhat endeared to free markets, but there are instances in which it makes no sense at all to let the market hold sway and hand over control over strategic assets to a party that only has purely economic interests.

It is a wide topic, to be sure, but intuitively the hog posits that most kiwis would - on balance - prefer that key assets be kept in at least local ownership. Sometimes, this is a trade-off against a larger business and improved economic "performance".

So just a suggestion to reflect a bit on the larger picture, of NZ as part of a global economic system and recognition of the fact that the current way the global economy is organised, ownership dictates control.

@Spook: there is always a game going on somewhere, so the government can always be accused of shifting the goalposts. Realistically-speaking, how often does this happen? Not much.

@RossT: nice analogue - it is about control.

disc: the hog is a politically-unaligned voter.

THE HOG still talking CRAP about NOTHING..............

[minimoke]

...
It is a wide topic, to be sure, but intuitively the hog posits that most kiwis would - on balance - prefer that key assets be kept in at least local ownership. Sometimes, this is a trade-off against a larger business and improved economic "performance".

S

If Kiws did want this they would vote for a party that wouldn't sell off assets.

Over the past few decades we have already seen the sell off of strategic assets like rail and hydro (Contact). We have also seen a govt buy back rail and also buy into a non strategic asset AIR because it “feels good”.



If companies are required to disclose then why shouldn’t the government?



Govt should flag at the beginning of an election cycle what its position is, and in this instance clearly spell out what constitutes “strategically important infrastructure on sensitive land” so that the market can value the position accordingly. No doubt Cullen will today announce all other assets that meets his criteria – or will he leave it until it becomes politically expedient to do so.

[ratkin]

Bought a chunk at 2.18. AIA is now my largest investment. Not too bothered about the takeover now. These are for the long term.

With all the fuss about the takeover people have forgotten what a quality asset this is. Sure we would of made a quick gain , however in the longterm we might be pleased we didnt.

Traders wont be quite so happy of course

[CJ]

For those that are now buying (shame you didn't get in when it got down to $2) are you still going to sell into the offer in the off chance that it does go ahead?

If you already held shares (and voted to sell up to 100%) would you need to revote in respect of the new shares or would the old vote cover the new shares.

[zac]

Sure it a great asset but the value of shares has now been seriously depreciated by the dead hand of political influence. Investment is all about predictability and political shenanagins are totally unpredictable. If you doubt this have a look at the Vector share price.

[voltage]

this is a good buy for the best blue chip in NZ, a monopoly that will be clipping the ticket for many years to come. Just topped my holding up

[kura]

this is a good buy for the best blue chip in NZ, a monopoly that will be clipping the ticket for many years to come. Just topped my holding up

I'd suggest caution before buying further, I recall listening to (Brian Gaynor ? ) on radio last night, saying the Canadian bid was pitched at a PE of 30 "something" . Sure since their offer is pretty well dead, the price has dropped, (and PE) but would you really want to be buying such a high PE stock in todays enviroment, if you think the growth potential is there, thats fine.
But consider that there are allready regulations for setting landing charges etc, and if AIL is seen to be making monopolistic profits, a simple change in the regulations could limit future profit growth.

[Deev8]

One notes that the US govt blocked the sale of a bunch of ports to an arab consortium last year.

One notes that the Australians have rules about foriegners owning their strategic assets, as do the the UK, Singapore, Japan, Canada, etc., etc, Personally I have no problem with rules about the ownership of "strategic assets", but I do have a problem with our government butting in just 8 days before the offer closes - the offer has been officially on the table since 14th December, and was announced some time before that.

We should also keep in mind the the New Zealand government used to be a majority owner of the airport, and had ample opportunity to impose conditions on overseas ownership when it decided to sell its stake, but chose not to.

[zac]

Good point re future profits of AIA. A labour govt. (pressed by AIR of which it is a major shareholder) would find it very easy to impose price control on airport charges.

[Grimy]

For those that are now buying (shame you didn't get in when it got down to $2) are you still going to sell into the offer in the off chance that it does go ahead?

If you already held shares (and voted to sell up to 100%) would you need to revote in respect of the new shares or would the old vote cover the new shares.

Is there a date on which you had to hold shares to be able to vote on and participate in the offer? Or if you buy in the next few days, can you still get the voting papers and vote?

[Steve]

Good point re future profits of AIA. A labour govt. (pressed by AIR of which it is a major shareholder) would find it very easy to impose price control on airport charges.

Protecting ones investment, so to speak?

[CJ]

Is there a date on which you had to hold shares to be able to vote on and participate in the offer? Or if you buy in the next few days, can you still get the voting papers and vote?

Grimy - I beleive you just have to hold the shares as at 13th. Votes have to be received by COB of 13th.

[STRAT]

Personally I have no problem with rules about the ownership of "strategic assets", but I do have a problem with our government butting in just 8 days before the offer closes - the offer has been officially on the table since 14th December, and was announced some time before that.

We should also keep in mind the the New Zealand government used to be a majority owner of the airport, and had ample opportunity to impose conditions on overseas ownership when it decided to sell its stake, but chose not to.Thats it in a nutshell Deev and you can bet your dirty undies that labor would have given serious consideration to potitical fallout on this so close to an election they know they are loosing. Obviously all you fellas allong with AIAL have been tagged as being die hard national supporters and there for of no consequence. It pisses me off and I dont even hold shares.

[Kropotkin]

Thats it in a nutshell Deev and you can bet your dirty undies that labor would have given serious consideration to potitical fallout on this so close to an election they know they are loosing. Obviously all you fellas allong with AIAL have been tagged as being die hard national supporters and there for of no consequence. It pisses me off and I dont even hold shares.

A huge miscalculation by the trolls of Helengrad.
How is this going to look to international investment community?

Yet another reason why NZ needs to reinstate an Upper House or give the Gov. Gen. back his balls in order to protect the country from cheap election year political opportunism.

Boo to Helen!

[COLIN]

Is there a date on which you had to hold shares to be able to vote on and participate in the offer? Or if you buy in the next few days, can you still get the voting papers and vote?
The cut-off date for qualifying for the right to vote was away back in December. But you can sell your shares into the offer right up to the expiry date of the offer.

[COLIN]

It also seems to me that Clark and Cullen are shrewd enough to know that this move will put pressure on John Key; any suggestion that National would approve the sale of "strategic" assets to foreign interests will scare the unthinking masses back into Helen's loving embrace.

[CJ]

It also seems to me that Clark and Cullen are shrewd enough to know that this move will put pressure on John Key; any suggestion that National would approve the sale of "strategic" assets to foreign interests will scare the unthinking masses back into Helen's loving embrace.Is it really such an issue that this gets sold. if they start ramping up landing fees (against the national interest), just regulate it as a monopoly supplier, or let Infratil build their second Auckland airport.

[Grimy]

The cut-off date for qualifying for the right to vote was away back in December. But you can sell your shares into the offer right up to the expiry date of the offer.

So have I got this right, as I didn't own shares last year, but do now, when I get replacement voting papers (or will I not be able to get those?) I will not be able to vote for/against the proposal, but I can offer them my shares?
The phone number for anyone wanting replacement voting papers is 0800 220 010

[Toddy]

A bit supercilious. Who are these "unthinking masses" that you refer to? Surely you are not referring to the good citizens of NZ.
hiawatha

Hiawatha, I may be able to help.
I don't think Colin was referring to;
-shareholders
-people who own property under individual property rights ( my father inlaw is worried as he recently sold his house to an Indian family, he is asking how this 'act' may effect his selling to a foreign family).
-anyone who has travelled outside of New Zealand and has observed how foreign investment can add world class property and services.

He may be referring to those who think that they own something because they live in the same country. Some may refer to these kind of people as socialists, or communists.

What do you mean by 'good citizens of NZ'?

[COLIN]

So have I got this right, as I didn't own shares last year, but do now, when I get replacement voting papers (or will I not be able to get those?) I will not be able to vote for/against the proposal, but I can offer them my shares?
The phone number for anyone wanting replacement voting papers is 0800 220 010

You can offer them your shares but you won't get an opportunity to vote. I know because I checked with the registry.

[COLIN]

A bit supercilious. Who are these "unthinking masses" that you refer to? Surely you are not referring to the good citizens of NZ.
hiawatha

Sorry if you consider I was being "supercilious" but I was referring to the large proportion of the public who have little understanding of investment matters. Many seem to hold views such as: "no foreigner should be allowed to own anything in NZ" or "capitalism is inherently bad" etc. They are easy meat for politicians who play on their fears.
Does the proverbial "man in the street" have much of an idea, for instance, of the extent to which the NZ Superannuation Fund invests offshore? And if they have no problem with outward investment, what is so wrong with the idea of inwards investment?
The Canadians have made it quite clear that they do not wish to control Auckland Airport.

[CJ]

Any guesses where the shareprice will go once the offer ends (on thursday?).

Or has a probability of success of 0% been built into the price?

[COLIN]

Any guesses where the shareprice will go once the offer ends (on thursday?).

Or has a probability of success of 0% been built into the price?
It will drop significantly, whether or not the required percentages are reached. By accepting the offer there is at least a chance that the Canadians will eventually be able to navigate their way through all the obstacles being laid by our self-serving Government.

[Toddy]

It will drop significantly, whether or not the required percentages are reached. By accepting the offer there is at least a chance that the Canadians will eventually be able to navigate their way through all the obstacles being laid by our self-serving Government.

I don't think that the SP will drop 'significantly' at all. The board need to restructure AIA to unlock wealth. Thats what this has been about all along. They cannot do this under the current model.

Anything could happen. Maybe the original IFT terms look more favourable under the new laws imposed by the Labour Govt. Also, don't forget that there could be a change of Govt which could soften the laws so that minority ownership can take its due course in the market place.

There may be light at the end of the tunnel, a pro business Govt may also soften the monetary policy leading to a fall in interest rates and hence, the exchange rate.

[CJ]

Canadians have now said they only want a 24.9% voting right for their 40% holding.

This is no longer "control" as required by the OIO?

[Te Whetu]

Canadians are really bending over backwards to get a stake... they are offering a substantial premium to the market, they have lost a large tax incentive and yet they are still prepared to give up 15% of voting rights to ensure that they get a stake of the business.

I say let them have it... NZ Super Fund invests in overseas assets...

But it does make you wonder whether the current market price for AIA is potentially too low; if the government does turn down the offer after all this I say that they should buy the shares themselves.

Disc: Hold no AIA

[CJ]

But it does make you wonder whether the current market price for AIA is potentially too low; if the government does turn down the offer after all this I say that they should buy the shares themselves.

Is the NZ Super fund allowed to make a take over offer? Between them, ACC fund, other NZ govt pension funds, IFT, and the councils, I am sure they could get to 100%. then the Labour government could run it as a monopoly together with AIRNZ to "tax" those rich enough to be able to fly.

As you say for the canadians to be giving up so much, they obviously see a lot of unrealised value.

[macduffy]

Good point. But we don't really want to see a precedent set whereby the govt can talk down the price of a share so that it can take it over cheaply.

:(

[Scooter]

I think the share price will rise. Less liquidity, people looking to buy back holding at a price cheaper than $3.60, afterall it is still a quality must have asset.

[Toddy]

Good move by the Canadian's.
24.9% falls below the acts definition of 'control'.

Does this automatically mean that the Labour Govt has lost at its own game. Even the mum's and dad's out there can understand that 24.9% is a minority. i.e If Labour win 24.9% of the vote in the next election one would not expect them to govern.

[CJ]

Does this automatically mean that the Labour Govt has lost at its own game. Even the mum's and dad's out there can understand that 24.9% is a minority. i.e If Labour win 24.9% of the vote in the next election one would not expect them to govern.

Classic. Would any NZ interviewer be good enough to ask cullen this question?

[COLIN]

I have been watching the inexorable slide in the IFT price, which would indicate that the market is not putting much store on Lloyd Morrison being able to pull a rabbit out of the hat in relation to AIA - at least not for the reasonable future. Any others have a view on this?

[CJ]

I have been watching the inexorable slide in the IFT price, which would indicate that the market is not putting much store on Lloyd Morrison being able to pull a rabbit out of the hat in relation to AIA - at least not for the reasonable future. Any others have a view on this?

IFT is a geared investment so will always go down in times of uncertainty like this. I dont think AIA has much to do with it. It is only a small portion of the portfolio.

In will be actually be interesting to see what his next move is if the Canada bid doesn't go though -Canada 20%, IFT 20% ??; or on market accumulation (should pick up at under $3 for a large stake).

[COLIN]

IFT is a geared investment so will always go down in times of uncertainty like this. I dont think AIA has much to do with it. It is only a small portion of the portfolio.

In will be actually be interesting to see what his next move is if the Canada bid doesn't go though -Canada 20%, IFT 20% ??; or on market accumulation (should pick up at under $3 for a large stake).
Thanks for comments, CJ, but I am still more than a little puzzled at the extent of the current weakness in IFT. The conventional wisdom in a bear market such as we are experiencing at the moment is that infrastructure investment does not fare as poorly as most other sectors. Their two main investments are TPW and Wellington Airport; energy and airports are hardly in the "dud" class. No, there has to be some other explanation. Surely NZ Bus doesn't represent the missing link.
(Should probably conduct further discussion on the IFT thread.)

[CJ]

Interesting to see what the market does today. Market depth is looking funny (very small voln though) with one person wanting to sell at 2.20 and someone wanting to buy at 2.5. What price goes ahead then??

other than that, it looks like it will open up 1c.

[macduffy]

Does anyone know if the OIC come into play if the Canadians own in excess of 24.9% but limit their control to 24.9% ?
If not, the govt ministers won't be able to muscle in on the game.

:)

[Toddy]

IFT
11/03/2008
TAKEOVER

REL: 1703 HRS Infratil Limited

TAKEOVER: IFT: Auckland International Airport

Infratil has today resolved to vote in favour of the Canadian Pension Plan
Investment Board partial offer for Auckland
Airport and accept the offer for its shares.

This decision follows CPPIB's significant concession to limit its voting
control to 24.9% on all matters and not to remove this restriction without
the prior approval of Auckland Airport shareholders.

Other factors considered, some of which have occurred since the Auckland
Airport board updated its views, include the Government's announcements with
regard to stapled securities, possible changes to airport regulation and the
amendment to the Overseas Investment Act regulations and the further
weakening of world equity markets.

Infratil continues to believe that Auckland Airport is a first class
infrastructure asset, with strong long term growth prospects, which will
benefit from shareholding stability.

[tycoon_1]

very interesting. Surely this must have tilted the bid in favour of the Canadians?

[CJ]

very interesting. Surely this must have tilted the bid in favour of the Canadians?
Agree. Now that they have stated this, expect all the institutions to jump on board as well.

Does anyone see a conflilct of interest with Lloyd as Director recommending rejecting the proposal yet as investment advisor, accepting the bid??

[Deev8]

I say let them have it...
Disc: Hold no AIAIt's always easy - deciding what other people should do.

[ratkin]

With infratil accepting and all the big funds to follow we could be in danger of going way past 40% which will mean not all are shares will be sold.

As for the canadians dropping the voting rights it gives Helen Clarke a good excuse to allow the sale. She has been coming under increasing pressure for her stance and this gives her a way out.

Im fairly confident the bid will now succeed and am rather suprised the shareprice hasnt responded more than it has, or are shares bought now not eligable?

[tycoon_1]

well the infratil annoucement came after market closed. Expect a positive reaction tomorrow.

[Toddy]

With infratil accepting and all the big funds to follow we could be in danger of going way past 40% which will mean not all are shares will be sold.

As for the canadians dropping the voting rights it gives Helen Clarke a good excuse to allow the sale. She has been coming under increasing pressure for her stance and this gives her a way out.

Im fairly confident the bid will now succeed and am rather suprised the shareprice hasnt responded more than it has, or are shares bought now not eligable?

Rakin

The announcement by IFT was disclosed after the NZX had finished trading for the day. We will understand more tomorrow once the market opens.

[Toddy]

Helen will be happy. The people of Auckland will get to keep their holding and the Wellingtonians (IFT) want to sell. I expect the SP will give us the odds of this deal crossing the finish line within 10 minutes of opening in the morning.

Manukau City Council refuse to sell airport shares
New 6:47PM Tuesday March 11, 2008

Manukau City Council today decided not to support the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board's offer to buy its share in Auckland International Airport.

Mayor Len Brown said the decision was made after considering the recent CPPIB statement regarding its voting rights.

"We recognise the proposal is now a lot closer to the councils position and we appreciate that. However, it is the councils view that the proposal is still not in the best long term interests of the airport, the city and its residents," Mr Brown said.

ALSO

By NZPA
Tuesday 11th March 2008

The Canadian pension fund bidding for Auckland International Airport is likely to succeed provided it gets the bids in, competition lawyers said today.

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP) over-trumped the Government attempt to trump its bid for 40% for AIA when it said yesterday it would limit its voting rights to 24.9%.

That means its should no longer need Overseas Investment Commission approval, circumventing the cabinet ministers' right to veto the deal.

The Government last week tightened overseas investment regulations in what was widely seen as a poll-driven move based on the unpopularity of foreign companies buying large New Zealand assets.

Lawyers spoken to by NZPA said the cabinet ministers who have been given power of veto -- Land Information Minister David Parker and Associate Finance Minister Clayton Cosgrove -- will be hard pressed to justify intervention with the Canadians having less than 25% voting control.

"If they have under 25%, they should be right," said Grant David of law firm Chapman Tripp.

One of the key criteria for Overseas Investment Commission approval is the 25% threshold.

"If you are not caught by the threshold, the fact that the ministers, or the Government of the day, doesn't particularly like what you want to do, then you are free to do it," David said.

"The Overseas Investment Act is there as a protection and if you are under the boundary, then you are not caught by the regime."

David said if the proposal has been reshaped so it doesn't require OIC consent, then there was no scope for ministerial interference.

"It then comes down to a commercial decision as to whether the scheme represents value."

A senior competition lawyer who declined to be identified, said it appeared as though the regulations had invited CPP to make its vote limiting move.

"The regulation looked as though it had been drafted to invite people to construct these kinds of arrangements to preserve control but not to prevent ownership passing."

He said it was unclear whether the law drafter had attempted to limit a foreign backlash against laws restricting foreign ownership.

Whether the deal succeeds "may depend ultimately on whether the ministers decide their political hides depend on blocking it. The whole thing was poll-driven," the lawyer said.

Because the CPP bid, at $3.60 per share, is nearly 60% above the prevailing share price, there seems little doubt it will get the 39.9% is seeks. The bid closes on Thursday and CPP before the start of business today had over 20.5% of the company.

The deal also requires a vote in favour and around two thirds of the 19.2% who had voted, supported the proposal.

When he announced the tighter investment criteria last Monday, Finance Minister Michael Cullen said the changes had been made in response to the uncertainty and debate that had surrounded the CPP bid.

AIA shares were up 3 cents to $2.28 in mid-afternoon trading today.

[ratkin]

My guess would be around 2.50 , cant see it going too high as people have been burnt once too often on this one

[COLIN]

I'm still a little confused about where the threshhold is, for having to gain OIO approval. For instance, if the Canadians were seeking 50.1% of the total shares on issue, but limiting their voting rights to 24.9% (apart from resolutions affecting their 50.1% holding) are the commentators (quoted above) saying that they wouldn't need to go near the OIO? I find that a bit hard to believe.

[CJ]

Colin - they are only going for 40%.

I think the key is that the OIO only looks at issues of control, not ownership. Therefore with control under 25% (despite ownership being 40%) they have no jurisdiction.

[Te Whetu]

It's always easy - deciding what other people should do.

Heh, so do you only every comment on issues relating to shares that you hold?

In any case, many have voiced an opinion on what the government should do... EVEN if they own shares they are deciding what the government should do (someone else). So i don't own shares in AIA; does that mean I shouldn't voice an opinion on what the government should do?

Also lets consider this is a forum, and as such is here to promote discussion. If people get critical every time there's an opinion on what someone else should do, then the amount of discussion would drop. Threads would only have postings from one side, and everyone would then pat themselves on the back for being in a perceived majority; only shareholders would comment and they all believe it's worth owning the share, you would never get a view from people who have a contrary view.

Lets also consider that if no one has an opinion on what the government should do then they will just do what they want, there would be no limits to their power and they WILL become corrupt. Basically the government should represent the people; so we need to have an opinion on what they do.

If you don't agree with my opinion, if you don't think the government should allow CPP to purchase 40% then explain why...

[Snow Leopard]

Heh, so do you only every comment on issues relating to shares that you hold?

In any case, many have voiced an opinion on what the government should do... EVEN if they own shares they are deciding what the government should do (someone else). So i don't own shares in AIA; does that mean I shouldn't voice an opinion on what the government should do?

Also lets consider this is a forum, and as such is here to promote discussion. If people get critical every time there's an opinion on what someone else should do, then the amount of discussion would drop. Threads would only have postings from one side, and everyone would then pat themselves on the back for being in a perceived majority; only shareholders would comment and they all believe it's worth owning the share, you would never get a view from people who have a contrary view.

Lets also consider that if no one has an opinion on what the government should do then they will just do what they want, there would be no limits to their power and they WILL become corrupt. Basically the government should represent the people; so we need to have an opinion on what they do.

If you don't agree with my opinion, if you don't think the government should allow CPP to purchase 40% then explain why...

There is an awful lot of do's in there :eek:

[shasta]

Heh, so do you only every comment on issues relating to shares that you hold?

In any case, many have voiced an opinion on what the government should do... EVEN if they own shares they are deciding what the government should do (someone else). So i don't own shares in AIA; does that mean I shouldn't voice an opinion on what the government should do?

Also lets consider this is a forum, and as such is here to promote discussion. If people get critical every time has an opinion on what someone else should do then the amount of discussion would drop. Threads would only have postings from one side, and everyone would then pat themselves on the back for being in a perceived majority.

Lets also consider that if no one has an opinion on what the government should do then they will just do what they want, there would be no limits to their power and they WILL become corrupt.

If you don't agree with my opinion, if you don't think the government should allow CPP to purchase 40% then explain why... but basically the government should represent the people; so we need to have an opinion on what they do.

Just ask any current/ex IFT shareholder what the Govt medling in the Aviation industry has done!

We should all have a say in this given the tie in AIA & AIR have (the taxpayer owning a majority share of AIR, plus the local Auckland Councils owning AIA).

We could have had Whenuapai developed by IFT & the Waitakere CC, (IFT were to invest $50m) except the Govt interferred to protect its own interests in AIR/AIA.

Yet to fly to Auckland from Wellington takes just under an hour, but it takes longer to drive into the city/shore, nevermind having the airport down south. Makes no sense to me :confused:

(Could help assist the Auckland trafficflow problem?)

To my mind the 24.9% - 40% ownership rangle is a beat up, 50.01% is required to exercise control, whilst 40% might get 2 directors on the board.

This may have presented the various councils an opportunity to sell down at a good price & re-invest the funds elsewhere, if they so desired.

I don't own AIA nor do i intend to, but a partial takeover at a premium should be left solely to shareholders to decide, NOT the Govt.

The Govt is clearly anti public/private partnerships, & my issue is that they should stick to looking after there SOE's & prevent them from being sold, & stay out of the market.

Far too much interference for my liking. :mad:

[COLIN]

Colin - they are only going for 40%.

I think the key is that the OIO only looks at issues of control, not ownership. Therefore with control under 25% (despite ownership being 40%) they have no jurisdiction.
CJ, I fully realise that the Canadians are only going for 40%. My point was that, in a hypothetical situation of an overseas party bidding for a majority of a NZ company's shares, but controlling less than 25% of those shares, are we absolutely sure that the OIO has no jurisdiction whatever?

[CJ]

CJ, I fully realise that the Canadians are only going for 40%. My point was that, in a hypothetical situation of an overseas party bidding for a majority of a NZ company's shares, but controlling less than 25% of those shares, are we absolutely sure that the OIO has no jurisdiction whatever?

In election year - No.

It is interesting that no one has come out and said explicitally that it applies or doesn't apply.

[CJ]

Does anyone see a conflilct of interest with Lloyd as Director recommending rejecting the proposal yet as investment advisor, accepting the proposal??

No one concerned about this. Lloyds investment company not taking his own advice (to reject the proposal). Luckily he recommended selling the shares or else I think there could be something more to this.

[dsurf]

CJ, I fully realise that the Canadians are only going for 40%. My point was that, in a hypothetical situation of an overseas party bidding for a majority of a NZ company's shares, but controlling less than 25% of those shares, are we absolutely sure that the OIO has no jurisdiction whatever?

The "regulations" regarding the OIO decision include some other very waffly catch all considerations. One I heard discussed in the media was that the purchse must benefit NZ ers - would that happen & how could you measure it??? Does not mean of course that the OIO will not approve.

[CJ]

AIA opened up 7c at 2.35

Would ahve expected it to be higher if people expected it to go though (including OIO). Maybe hedge funds/etc have been scared off.

[COLIN]

AIA opened up 7c at 2.35

Would ahve expected it to be higher if people expected it to go though (including OIO). Maybe hedge funds/etc have been scared off.

I also expected higher, with the Canadian pensioners now holding over 26%. A great buying opportunity at present, but one would have to move fast to get your purchases shovelled into the Canadian posse.
And look at the resurgence of confidence on Wall Street overnight, with the Fed taking mortgage-backed securities as loan collateral. This move should do a power of good, in helping to restore confidence in the credit markets and preventing total paralysis.

[777]

I would think that anyone buying today would not get the choice to vote nor to accept the Canadian offer. It is going to be 3 days before settlement so the paperwork is starting that far behind.

[Placebo]

The dead hand of Government intervention will continue to hold this one back. The market is building in a high level of doubt to the SP.

Looking at the chart, by yesterday the SP had retreated to around 220, which is where the price sat this time last year, prior to all the Dubaian and Canadian takeover schemozzling. So if 220-ish is fair value, somewhere in the 230s is building in a very low hope of a 360-odd cps offer succeeding...

If you want a clear indication of the impact Govt threats and the risk of regulation can have on value then just look at the Telecom chart.

Glad I'm out :)

[CJ]

Looking at the chart, by yesterday the SP had retreated to around 220, which is where the price sat this time last year, prior to all the Dubaian and Canadian takeover schemozzling. So if 220-ish is fair value, somewhere in the 230s is building in a very low hope of a 360-odd cps offer succeeding...

With the fall in markets recently, I would have though fair value was a little lower so the "take over premium" may be a little higher than you think, plus the offer is only for 40% of shares so people will end up holding (my guess based on those who say no etc) about 40-50% of their holding at a lower price.

[The Great Gold Guru]

Stock getting absolutely belted the last few minutes ... market is saying that the Canadian offer is a 0% chance of success , amazing that not more people want $3.59 rather than $2.19 !!!

AIA -9 at 219 ....

[CJ]

Stock getting absolutely belted the last few minutes ... market is saying that the Canadian offer is a 0% chance of success , amazing that not more people want $3.59 rather than $2.19 !!!

AIA -9 at 219 ....

Or is it a timing thing. Acceptances need to be in tomorrow. How quickly can institutions get title to shares in order to accept offer? Mum&Dad investors cant get it that quickly, how about the traders on this forum?

Wish I had shorted today when it opened at 2.35. Sure bet it was going to fall over the next couple of days.

[tycoon_1]

they could always fax the forms through. There is probably no point buying now as people buying won't get the premium should take over succeed. Interesting day tomorrow coming up.

[Toddy]

I don't think that the Canadians need any more mum and dads to sign up. At close of business today they had just over 38% acceptance.

[BRICKS]

Stock getting absolutely belted the last few minutes ... market is saying that the Canadian offer is a 0% chance of success , amazing that not more people want $3.59 rather than $2.19 !!!

AIA -9 at 219 ....

YOU are NOT getting $3.59 for all only some and bits of PAPER worth ???

[COLIN]

I don't think that the Canadians need any more mum and dads to sign up. At close of business today they had just over 38% acceptance.
I noted from tonight's news that they had hit 38% and so are almost there. However, it still remains to be seen whether they can get over the 50% approval vote; perhaps the Auckland City Council meeting tonight might lend their weight to the "pros" - that's if that crazy protester is bundled out.

[Toddy]

I noted from tonight's news that they had hit 38% and so are almost there. However, it still remains to be seen whether they can get over the 50% approval vote; perhaps the Auckland City Council meeting tonight might lend their weight to the "pros" - that's if that crazy protester is bundled out.

The protester may not be crazy. They may be Mr average who has had a guts full of central and local govt politics, high interest rates, high fx rates, and dodgy investment advice. They may be going through the FTX legal battle, licking wounds of Bridgecorp debentures flushed down the toilet and simply looking to cash up their AIA stake to pay for outstanding bills on their BlueChip property investment in order to keep their marriage from heading the same way.

But then again, they may be someone who does not invest and has nothing to gain from this exercise except giving the big two fingers to those nasty foreigners.

[ratkin]

Auckland council has rejected the bid , however it wont matter as the canadians now have 38% and are sure to go over 40....just.

The fact they will only just get over 40% is very good news for us shareholders who accepted the offer , it means almost 100% of our shares will be sold at 3.60 provided clarke dosent do the dirty

[Tanger]

They still need to get over 50% of the voting shares to approve the plan as well though. With Auckland and Manukau City Councils both rejecting both votes, I would think this is going to be the more close run thing. I'll be watching eargerly tomorrow morning to see what the split is, and then trying to work out whether the council's votes are in there or not. The last notice filed showed that only just over 20% of the votes had been received, with a 32/68 split in favour of them acquiring the 40%. Lets just hope that people have not voted in line with the Boards recommendation and voted yes to sell, but no to the offer proceeding. The councils hold 12% and 10%, so this split will change considerably with them included as No's. It will be dependent on how many of the votes to sell today also voted in favour of them getting 40%.

[COLIN]

They still need to get over 50% of the voting shares to approve the plan as well though. With Auckland and Manukau City Councils both rejecting both votes, I would think this is going to be the more close run thing. I'll be watching eargerly tomorrow morning to see what the split is, and then trying to work out whether the council's votes are in there or not. The last notice filed showed that only just over 20% of the votes had been received, with a 32/68 split in favour of them acquiring the 40%. Lets just hope that people have not voted in line with the Boards recommendation and voted yes to sell, but no to the offer proceeding. The councils hold 12% and 10%, so this split will change considerably with them included as No's. It will be dependent on how many of the votes to sell today also voted in favour of them getting 40%.
The vote, of course, can be exercised by all holders as at December, i.e. its not just those who respond to the Acceptance Forms. If all major non-acceptors vote "No" then I fear that the offer cannot succeed. A great pity.

[CJ]

Looks like it will open up about 9c?

Interestingly it looks like the Canadians filed an announcement from February rather than the position at the end of yesterday?

Confused - I am?
[edit: they have ammended the notice now. It doesn't say however how many have approved the proposal - that is the important number as it looks like it will get over the 40% acceptances.]

[macduffy]

Of course, the approval % won't be known until the singing's over.
Unlike the acceptance figure which only has to " reach" its target, the approval figure can be negated at any stage by votes against.

[The Great Gold Guru]

I bgt 20,000 of the shares at 217 a few days ago , got the offer papers yesterday and duly offered my shares to the canucks ... no voting paper though , so don't know what happened there ... IF and its a monster IF this goes thru then it will have been easy money. If it fails which is the more likely scenario then at current prices the shares offer great medium term value anyway at $2.27 ( I'm already up 10c/sh plus there is a 5.75c/sh divi on the way as well ) , looks like a good bet to me.

[COLIN]

I bgt 20,000 of the shares at 217 a few days ago , got the offer papers yesterday and duly offered my shares to the canucks ... no voting paper though , so don't know what happened there ... IF and its a monster IF this goes thru then it will have been easy money. If it fails which is the more likely scenario then at current prices the shares offer great medium term value anyway at $2.27 ( I'm already up 10c/sh plus there is a 5.75c/sh divi on the way as well ) , looks like a good bet to me.

You only get the right to vote if you held the shares prior to a certain date in December.

[CJ]

Of course, the approval % won't be known until the singing's over.
Unlike the acceptance figure which only has to " reach" its target, the approval figure can be negated at any stage by votes against.I thought they hade been posting updates as per hearld Graphic

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10497810

ie. 68% acceptances but on only 20% of shares. My guess is they received the councils ones which means it would only be something like 35% acceptances on 40% of shares and they didn't want it to look bad.

[tui]

Sorely tempted! tyty vbvbghd rkjrfk

[troyvdh]

...now going nuts....

[ratkin]

Auckland council today talking up a high speed rail link from CBD to the airport , would be massive for the stock.

Great for passengers and staff.

Cant think of many big international airports which dont have a rail lnk

[COLIN]

tyty vbvbghd rkjrfk

Something else going nuts!

[Zaphod]

Auckland council today talking up a high speed rail link from CBD to the airport , would be massive for the stock.

Great for passengers and staff.

Cant think of many big international airports which dont have a rail lnk

Vancouver doesn't, but they are rapidly building one right now and with 17.5M annual passenger movements, it has been LONG overdue.

[And yes, there are plenty more examples]

[Footsie]

IS it worth buying some today????

[brettdale]

So whats happening with the deal?, us newbies need to know, will they be allowed to buy my shares at $3.65?

[Year of the Tiger]

Sorry Guys, this is nothing to do with AIA, but it is to do with this thread.

When I Select Markets > NZX, I see this thread has had 421 replies.

When I move to the thread itself, (last page), I get to page 26 but the little page number thingee tells me that there is in fact 29 pages and a total of 422 replies.

I click onto page 29 but just land back on page 26 with what seems to be the most recent post (383 I think or similar).

Is it just me that is seeing this or is there something a bit wonky with this thread just now?

YOTT

[Zaphod]

Yes, there's a bug in the code. Noticed that problem too!

[ronthepom]

yes same problem here

[ratkin]

I take it that the late surge in shareprice means they have made it over the line

[brettdale]

So what happened? Did they get the numbers needed?

[macduffy]

So what happened? Did they get the numbers needed?

Who knows? Tomorrow, maybe.

If they do, it then becomes a matter of will the OIC become involved? ( By the way, is that now called the OIO?)

If so, will it be referred to the two wise ministers?

I'm not holding my breath.

:rolleyes:

[CJ]

Why the large spike in price? I would have expected it to go down slightly like it did on Wednesday Close?

[airedale]

Seems that there is a similar prob on the NZO thread.


Sorry Guys, this is nothing to do with AIA, but it is to do with this thread.

When I Select Markets > NZX, I see this thread has had 421 replies.

When I move to the thread itself, (last page), I get to page 26 but the little page number thingee tells me that there is in fact 29 pages and a total of 422 replies.

I click onto page 29 but just land back on page 26 with what seems to be the most recent post (383 I think or similar).

Is it just me that is seeing this or is there something a bit wonky with this thread just now?

YOTT

[Toddy]

The late news tonight said that Canadians have had 63% acceptances.
Yes vote has not been disclosed yet but analysists reckon they are home by 3%.

So, it looks like the Govt will have to make the final call.

[Indy kiwi]

Ok so the share price has spiked in anticipation of the deal proceeding, but a relatively small spike due to the risk factor. Here's my question: once it's all over, what will the share price settle at? Might be a good strategy to sell now and buy back in in a few months time.

[ratkin]

final total was 62.5% interestingly the superfund accepted the deal.

Ok , lets do the math. If 40 % meant we would have 100% of shares sold , what does 62.5% equate too?

Any one here work it out? had too many red wines last night , head too fuzzy to do the sums

[CJ]

Ok , lets do the math. If 40 % meant we would have 100% of shares sold , what does 62.5% equate too?

Pretty early in the moring but I would have though shares sold would be 39%/62.5% so just under 2/3 of shares.

Still dont understand why it went up. Say the deal goes ahead - There is now a new large "minority" holder which means there is no take over premium for the rest of your shares. Any shares bought now dont get the 3.65. So are they saying the company is worth 2.5 per share now (when two days ago when there was potential to get 3.65 for 2/3 of your shares, it was only worth 2.2)

[Toddy]

Pretty early in the moring but I would have though shares sold would be 39%/62.5% so just under 2/3 of shares.

Still dont understand why it went up. Say the deal goes ahead - There is now a new large "minority" holder which means there is no take over premium for the rest of your shares. Any shares bought now dont get the 3.65. So are they saying the company is worth 2.5 per share now (when two days ago when there was potential to get 3.65 for 2/3 of your shares, it was only worth 2.2)

The theory is that the institutions will have to rebalance their portfolios after the deal went through. Meaning that they would have to buy AIA stock back on market from a much smaller pool of shares pushing the price up.

[ratkin]

Assuming the canadian deal passes the vote where does that put the shareprice?

There would be a realistic chance of obtaining 3.65 for the majority of shares held. However im sure many would jump ship at around 3.00

[CJ]

The theory is that the institutions will have to rebalance their portfolios after the deal went through. Meaning that they would have to buy AIA stock back on market from a much smaller pool of shares pushing the price up.mmm. didn't think of that.

Ratkin - who are you assuming will be buying in? If the Canadians succeed, they hold a blocking stake so no one else will try a takeover.

[ratkin]

Shareholders have today delivered a strong message to both local and central government with a clear 'Yes' vote to the option of the Canadian Pension Plan taking a 40 per cent stake in the nation's biggest airport.
57 per cent of shareholders were in favour of the bid. A majority was all that was needed.
The result of the vote was revealed by the NZX just before 8.30am today.

[CJ]

Shareholders have today delivered a strong message to both local and central government with a clear 'Yes' vote to the option of the Canadian Pension Plan taking a 40 per cent stake in the nation's biggest airport.
57 per cent of shareholders were in favour of the bid. A majority was all that was needed.
The result of the vote was revealed by the NZX just before 8.30am today.looking at the numbers, over 20% of people didn't vote (that is a lot of Mum&Dad investors??). I wonder if those same people didn't accepted tha take over offer??

NZ superfund voted against cullen and for the canandians - good on them.
IFT disagreed with their boss, and didn't take his advice (as director of AIA) not to approve takeover - makes him look silly?

Where to for the shareprice for now. Subject to Govt approval, the canandians are in. A lot of shares tied up which cant be traded till the canandians release the final allocation.

[Zaphod]

AIA
14/03/2008
TAKEOVER

REL: 0827 HRS Auckland International Airport Limited

TAKEOVER: AIA: AKL Airport shareholders vote to approve CPPIB partial bid

CPPIB's partial takeover offer for Auckland Airport has been approved by a
majority of the company's shareholders who voted.

At the close of the offer period, being 5pm on Thursday 13 March, 973,962,269
shares (representing 79.7% of the total shares in the company) were voted by
shareholders, with 57.7% of those votes approving the CPPIB offer. These
results are subject to final confirmation which is expected by 9 am Monday 17
March.

Acceptances of the offer were lodged for 763,485,952 shares representing
62.5% of the total shares in Auckland Airport. Under its partial bid CPPIB
was seeking 39.2% of the shares in the company. These results are also
subject to final confirmation as acceptance forms post-marked before 5pm on
13 March can be counted as valid acceptances.

CPPIB has advised that it will provide final details on scal
ing once
acceptance levels have been finalised by the middle of next week. Shares in
excess of CPPIB's requirement under the offer will not be acquired and will
then become tradable.

Chairman of Auckland Airport, Tony Frankham, said the transaction requires
final approval from the Overseas Investment Office by 11 April in order to
become unconditional.

"Auckland Airport hopes that, in the interests of certainty and an informed
market, the government ministers concerned will announce their decision well
before this deadline.

If approval is not gained by this date, the offer will lapse and the shares
offered for sale will no longer be subject to the bid which means they will
be free to be traded as usual", he said.

Mr Frankham said the board remained focused on working in the long term
interests of the airport company and its shareholders.

- ends -

[tycoon_1]

even the nz super fund has accepted the offer. wouldnt government be biting its own leg if it says no to its own investment companys decision?

[Indy kiwi]

If people agreed to the deal and agreed to sell, are they committed to this? In other words, even though I agreed to both, can I sell on market at 3.00 or 3.20 or whatever?

[The Great Gold Guru]

Am I right in thinking that if 65% of the shares have been offered to the Canadians ... and Auckland and Manukau CC's own 25% and won't be trading theirs then only 10% or so of the capital is available to buy and sell until the government / OIC makes its decision and that could take 30 days. Could lead to some very volitile trading in AIA for the next few weeks little volume.

What will the shares do today ? ... huge run-up late yesterday ....

[COLIN]

If people agreed to the deal and agreed to sell, are they committed to this? In other words, even though I agreed to both, can I sell on market at 3.00 or 3.20 or whatever?

No. The Government has until 11 April to decide. Your shares are in limbo until that decision is made. For the sake of all parties lets hope they don't take too long, but I fear that we won't see a quick decision. Let the political football match continue!

[CJ]

No. The Government has until 11 April to decide. Your shares are in limbo until then.
I think excess shares will be release from the offer next week sometime next week so you will have a portion you can sell, but not until they tell you how many are locked into the sale pending OIO/Govt approval.

Could be very volatile. Still dont see why people would be buying now?

[COLIN]

And its going to have a depressing effect on the market when all those shares are released from escrow - to be repeated if the "Two Wise Ministers" don't give their consent.

[beacon]

Wise all right.

[brettdale]

So as a shareholder that elected to sell, if the government does the right thing and doesnt stop the deal, how long is it then before us shareholders get our money.

Secondly, if the Government votes NO, is their an appeal? or is the whole thing over? do I have to wait until Im allowed to sell my shares again.

[ratkin]

Why would anyone sell today ? Me no comprende

[CJ]

Why would anyone sell today ? Me no comprende

Because you now own shares in a company that no one wants to take over because there is a big blockign stake.

however, if you didn't sell into the offer, you wouldn't sell today would you?

My guess a few days ago was for this to drop down to $2 today but I got that competely wrong.

[ratkin]

they would of fallen more if offer was not accepted. So i see no reason why anyone would sell today. Traders would of left before now.
Those accepted the offer will be in limbo , those who didnt want the takeover will be long term holders and they wouldnt sell today

[Placebo]

Isn't it terrific how well we do corporate takeovers in NZ.

Nice clean deals, well understood by holders, neatly and tidily arranged for wins all round.

;) ;) ;)

[ratkin]

Recieved my acceptance forms today for shares i bought on march 4 very slack.

Had already sent one in january for shares i already hold , ticked sell all. Will these new ones be included? i suspect not

[Grimy]

I bought some on the 5th and Direct Broking phoned me on Monday as it was going to be tight for getting the paperwork before the deadline and emailed me the acceptance form to fill in and fax. Great service I thought. My papers turned up yesterday (I got home at 6pm), so Direct Broking get my vote for being onto it.

[ratkin]

That is good , i bought mine 4th march with ASB they turned up today.
Not too bothered as i have others that will sell if the offer succeeds.

Im in two minds about the whole thing. Long term there not much better on the NZX.

[CJ]

Im in two minds about the whole thing. Long term there not much better on the NZX. I assume you there aren't any better stocks on the NZX.

Short term I see them going down as people sell the shares they didn't manage to sell into the offer.

[CJ]

Big turnover at open (over 1m shares) and price down slightly.

Interesting times due to uncertainty of government approval plus opposing positions of hedge funds disposing of the unsold shares (since thre will be an allocation), and index funds (would they have sold into the offer) and "active funds" needing to rebalance their portfolio after sellling into the offer.

[JMKC]

There was 1m crossed pre open...it is not on open turnover. Stock is extremely illiquid at the moment as people still need confirmation of the exact size of their stub.

[COLIN]

I have grave doubts that this is going to survive the politics. Clark and Cullen are already seeing fruit from their moves to stymie it, as witness last night's TV poll results. It is a populist issue, and these wily politicians can read the public mind. The two "approving/disapproving" ministers will know which side their bread is buttered on.

[macduffy]

I agree with that, Colin. Too many votes to be had by vetoing the takeover for it to be approved.
While I vehemently object to this govt digging its hands even deeper into my hip-pocket, in a perverse sort of way I won't be too upset if left with all my AIA. Still the best stock on the NZSX, IMO.

[777]

Standard & Poor's has placed Auckland Airport's A/A-1 credit rating on credit watch with negative implications after the majority of the airport's shareholders approved Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's 40% bid for the airport.

The action reflects uncertainty regarding the final outcome of the CPPIB offer, which is now subject to approval by the government by April 11, said Standard & Poor's. It will still seek clarification regarding AIAL's medium- term financial risk targets, even if CPPIB's offer fails.


From The Independent

[Toddy]

Standard & Poor's has placed Auckland Airport's A/A-1 credit rating on credit watch with negative implications after the majority of the airport's shareholders approved Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's 40% bid for the airport.

The action reflects uncertainty regarding the final outcome of the CPPIB offer, which is now subject to approval by the government by April 11, said Standard & Poor's. It will still seek clarification regarding AIAL's medium- term financial risk targets, even if CPPIB's offer fails.


From The Independent

This is standard.

[macduffy]

Exactly, Toddy.
I suppose it had to be reported but it's hardly newsworthy.

:cool:

[777]

Sorry.....

[Zaphod]

Sorry.....

Still worth-while adding to the thread 777. Don't worry ;)

Now back to the waiting game.....

[Toddy]

Do people out there really think that Helen and Cullen will trample all over shareholders and the NZX when the Fed is doing everything in its power to bring confidence to the financial systems at home and around the world.

Helen cannot normally keep her mouth shut when it comes to saving the world.

A little confidence and consistency from the govt should be par for the course under the current environment.

Or maybe not!

[CJ]

Do people out there really think that Helen and Cullen will trample all over shareholders and the NZX when the Fed is doing everything in its power to bring confidence to the financial systems at home and around the world.

Helen cannot normally keep her mouth shut when it comes to saving the world.

A little confidence and consistency from the govt should be par for the course under the current environment.

Helen is probably scared that the Canandians will only pay NZ workers a 1/4 of the amount of the Canandian workers they work along side.

Am I the only one supprised at how well the shareprice is holding up. Is this a reflection of value or the lack of sellers?

[CJ]

The canadians will announce on 25th the level of scaling and following this, scaled back shares will be avaliable to trade.

[CJ]

Canandians ahve announced the final acceptance ratio and the balance of shares are now open to trade.

From my understanding, if you accepted for 39.53% or less, they will all be accepted. If you accepted for more than that, the additional part will be scaled. If you accepted for 100% of your shares, you will have 60.86% taken into the offer.

Anyone want to confirm.

No flurry of selling as the shares came on market.

[brettdale]

So I accepted for them to buy all my shares, so judging by what i have read they will buy 60% of them.

But the Government can still stop it, right?

[CJ]

So I accepted for them to buy all my shares, so judging by what i have read they will buy 60% of them.
But the Government can still stop it, right?

yes
yes

[apparently posts must be more than 10 characters in lenght, so this post now passes.}

[Steve]

Assumimg the Govt does say 'yes', will this lead to an increase in shareprice as those who sold out top up their reduced holdings at a much lower value?

[CJ]

Steve, arguably yes. However, there is a bit of uncertainty about what will happen once the Canadians get onboard since their preferred option was hit by Cullens first barrage of shots. Will they increase debt or prompt a restructure - or will they have no power as they only have a 24.9% voting right?

Further to that, I would have expected the price to go down today (more than it has) as those who bought just to sell into the offer, sell the excess shares which have just been freed up. The uncertainty might have scarred off a few hedge type funds though.

There is very little depth at the moment so I think there will be a balancing act between the two.

[Steve]

FWIW, I have been a shareholder since the IPO and didn't sell into the offer...

[macduffy]

If this is confession time, I also have been a shareholder since the IPO, sold into the offer but will be buying more if the price goes much lower, whether or not the 2 wise ministers approve the sale.
Still the best stock on the NZX, imo.

;)

[CJ]

FWIW, I have been a shareholder since the IPO and didn't sell into the offer...
Why didn't you sell in and then top up again. the price the Canadians are paying was always gong to be above what you could top at?

[777]

Why didn't you sell in and then top up again. the price the Canadians are paying was always gong to be above what you could top at?


If it went through. Still may not.

[CJ]

If it went through. Still may not.
If it doesn't go though, nothing gained, nothing lost - if it does go though, no gain but a loss.

Interesting article in the Independant today. Suggests that if they get turned down, they wont ask for judiical review, instead will just do a stand in the market for 20% (at less than the price of the initial offer) and hope for a national government which may allow them to increase there holding.

[tobo]

so are we settling back to 'reasonable' PE or is it now a bit oversold for the quality?
2007 report EPS 7.5c into $2.20 = PE 29
2007 report "outlook" EBITDA growth of 7% = 8.0c into $2.20 = PE 28
Will sp go to lower PE?

Hold (didn't sell because only just bought bargain basement last week)

[CJ]

AIA is starting to head down as I expected but I would have thought there would be more volume (from hedge funds etc).

Tobo - agree that it must start to look like a good buy. Value must be above $2.50 with or without the Canadians.

Re news of CC investigation on moving to a single duty free shop, why has this come at such a late stage. Regency got the boot ages ago and are in the process of winding down. Is it illegal to create a monopoly situation for another company (i realise they have a vested interest as they get a % of turnover).

[Steve]

Re news of CC investigation on moving to a single duty free shop, why has this come at such a late stage. Regency got the boot ages ago and are in the process of winding down. Is it illegal to create a monopoly situation for another company (i realise they have a vested interest as they get a % of turnover).

As AIA get a % of turnover, it shouldn't matter to them whether there is one or even five duty free shops as they will take their cut from each.

I think the key for the CC is that they are effectively creating a monopoly by reducing down to only the one shop, although I can't see how AIA will generate extra profits from the move as their cut is still going to be based on turnover which shouldn't change significantly...

[Grimy]

It was always interesting to compare prices on returning to NZ. Although a "basket" of purchases would have probably worked out very similar between the two outlets, if you were only after two or three alcohol purchases (as I usually am-on orders from the wife), it could be a reasonable amount cheaper shopping with one compared to the other.

[Balance]

Regency is going to Big Daddy "Commerce Commission' crying foul after losing out.

AIA operates a shopping mall essentially within its jurisdiction and can have one or ten operators in any retail segment - just like a shopping mall is not obligated to have two supermarkets. As long as there is competition from other duty free operators that travelers can buy from and prices at the airport is competitive with that in other locations (eg. city), where's the problem?

[Toddy]

Regency is going to Big Daddy "Commerce Commission' crying foul after losing out.

AIA operates a shopping mall essentially within its jurisdiction and can have one or ten operators in any retail segment - just like a shopping mall is not obligated to have two supermarkets. As long as there is competition from other duty free operators that travelers can buy from and prices at the airport is competitive with that in other locations (eg. city), where's the problem?

Exactly, I don't get the Comcom at all. Who cares about the price of duty free shopping. Its hardly a material or essential expenditure that will hurt the small guy on the street.

[CJ]

Regency is going to Big Daddy "Commerce Commission' crying foul after losing out. Is it? It seems a bit late in the piece to be complaining (it has been know for ages).

[CJ]

As AIA get a % of turnover, it shouldn't matter to them whether there is one or even five duty free shops as they will take their cut from each.
Lets over simplify it. Everyone who goes though buy there 3 bottles of duty free. With 2 shops you have to reduce your price. No competition you sell at full (duty free) price - no more 3 for 2 or 2 for $20 (or whate ever deals they give). More profits for DFS and more profits for AIA.

[ratkin]

Whats the latest on the canadian bid?

[Zaphod]

Whats the latest on the canadian bid?


We're all waiting for the Government's next move.

[ratkin]

Would these odds sound right?

no 1.50
yes 3.00

[dsurf]

Hard call dictated by election year vote grabbing. I see the equation as :


Votes gained by nationalistic jingo no decision from we must own infrastrucure when national would sell it off policy LESS votes lost by no answer from annoyed (mostly national?) AIA holders

If the above equation is a positive number then NO it will be since there is a net gain of votes for labour

If the above equation is a negative number then YES will be the answer

I suspect labour are trying to find a way they can say no. National security maybe?

Discl: will vote national because I am sick of looking at helen plaque

[COLIN]

Unfortunately its going to be a resounding NO. Labour just can't afford to alienate any more of their shrinking number of supporters. And as far as Helen, Cullen and their minor party supporters are concerned (that includes all of the minors except ACT) who cares about a few Tory capitalist share investors!

[Toddy]

Unfortunately its going to be a resounding NO. Labour just can't afford to alienate any more of their shrinking number of supporters. And as far as Helen, Cullen and their minor party supporters are concerned (that includes all of the minors except ACT) who cares about a few Tory capitalist share investors!

But labour have fronted up to pay towards the Blue Chip liquidation costs.

Or is that different, as Blue Chip investors are 'Tory Capitalist wannabees'

I don't think that labour can afford not to let an overseas investor take a MINORITY interest in an asset owned by individual shareholders.

[Zaphod]

Airport takeover papers shrouded in secrecy

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10502644

Finance Minister Michael Cullen is blocking the release of documents and advice relating to the Cabinet's shock decision to change the rules around a Canadian bid to buy a stake in Auckland Airport.

A decision on whether the controversial deal can go ahead is expected this week, but in the meantime Dr Cullen's office is refusing to allow the public to see any advice the Cabinet received when it made the rule change.

A request by the Herald for the papers was refused by Dr Cullen's office on the grounds of maintaining the "effective conduct of public affairs through protecting ministers, members of government organisations, officers and employees from improper pressure or harassment".

Asked what the improper pressure or harassment referred to, a spokesman from Dr Cullen's office said the two ministers who would apply the new rules had been excluded from Cabinet talks about the rule change.

The ministers - David Parker and Clayton Cosgrove - were kept at arms' length and to release the information before a decision defeated the purpose of that, he said.

The Herald understands Dr Cullen's office is likely to release the documents after the high-profile decision of Mr Parker and Mr Cosgrove has been made.

National Party finance spokesman Bill English last night called on Dr Cullen to release the information publicly, and said it was "ridiculous" to think the two ministers couldn't apply the right criteria if the background documents were public.

The Herald will appeal against the decision to the Ombudsmen's office.

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is the conditional owner of 40 per cent of Auckland Airport but it appears to be facing a struggle to gain approval under the Government's new foreign control rules, which require ministers to consider whether the purchase "will, or is likely to, assist New Zealand to maintain New Zealand control" of Auckland Airport.

Mr Cosgrove and Mr Parker have received information and a recommendation from the Overseas Investment Office relating to their decision.

The decision is open to judicial review.

[CJ]

Doesn't the offer lapse this friday. What happens if there is no ruling. Can the Canadians extend the offer or is it an acceptance or nothing.

If rejected, does anyone expect the canandians to try to grab 20% on market?


Decision on airport bid 'in next couple of weeks'
12:40PM Tuesday April 08, 2008

State Services Minister David Parker said today a decision would be made in the next couple of weeks on a Canadian bid to buy a stake in Auckland International Airport (AIA).

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has a conditional 40 per cent share of Auckland International Airport but ministers have to consider whether the purchase "will, or is likely to, assist New Zealand to maintain New Zealand control" of the airport.

Mr Parker and Associate Finance Minister Clayton Cosgrove are looking into the matter.

Mr Parker told reporters today that the decision on AIA would be made in the "next couple of weeks".

However, he did not rule out making a decision this week, which has been reported as the expected timeframe.

[Dr_Who]

If rejected, does anyone expect the canandians to try to grab 20% on market?

Why would they want only 20%? At 40% they would have controlling interest, but at 20% they are a minority? Also they wont need to pay such a high premium in this market.

[CJ]

Dr - If they offer lapses they have nothing. they could only go up to 20% without making another offer so would they cut their loses and go for only a 20% stake (I think most of their other investments are only minority stakes).

As you note, they should be able to pick up for less than the $3.6 they were offering.

[Lawso]

Government spin doctors are perpetuating the fiction that those two non-entities will make the decision over the Canadians' bid, and the media is letting them get away with it. The fact is, of course, that the decision will be made - probably has been made already - by Clark & Cullen. Confirmed lefties, they'd rather cosy up to the Chinese Reds than anyone from North America. How will they react to the Chinese interest in Vector?

[BRICKS]

OF all the takeovers i have seen this is the worst, but the gut feeling is it wont go ahead there will be much yelling on both sides of everything when the dust settles it will be a 19.9% grab at a much cheaper price they could even use the creep method after that and still one day gain control but much CHEAPER every one will know FRIDAY..

[Steve]

When is the Govt decision expected?

[CJ]

When is the Govt decision expected?After it is required.

The deadline is Friday and their was a preess release earlier this week saying they would decide in the next two weeks - not very helpful - effectively saying no by doing nothing.

[ratkin]

shrewdies have been buying up. Stand in market at around 3.00 on way

[Toddy]

Decision on Canadian airport bid due today
NZPA

Decision due today

Government ministers are set to announce their decision today on whether a Canadian bid to buy a stake in Auckland International Airport (AIA) can go ahead or not.

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has a conditional 40 percent share of Auckland International Airport but ministers have to consider whether the purchase "will, or is likely to, assist New Zealand to maintain New Zealand control" of the airport.

State Services Minister David Parker and Associate Finance Minister Clayton Cosgrove have the power to veto the sale which now requires Overseas Investment Office approval.
11-Apr-2008

[Albert]

News just in....They have rejected the Bid!!!!!!

[CJ]

No new flat screen tv for me.

No further comments by the ministers, just a no.

Any guesses on the share price on open? Will we see a stand on the market - if so, how soon.

[brettdale]

FU Labour, FU Helen Clark, they are the most sickening, disgusting repulsive government we have ever had, make no mistake, they did this because they knew it would appeal to their retard fan base.

[Yossarian]

unreal

that does it, I'm going to pack my bags and utilise that "strategic" asset, once and for all...

[Indy kiwi]

So does that free up my shares and I can sell them if I want to now?

[CJ]

So does that free up my shares and I can sell them if I want to now?Notice has been given that the offer has lapsed so I would say so.

Get in line behind the punter selling for 2.15.

[brettdale]

So Im guessing the deal is totally over now? There is no comeback at all.


Im guessing the price will go down today?

Man, I hate this government.

[remy]

hopefully they wont be in for much longer.

[spook]

So Im guessing the deal is totally over now? There is no comeback at all.


Im guessing the price will go down today?

Man, I hate this government.


I got that wrong they were straight after the Government announcement! They can now pick up 20% at
roughly $1.40 cheaper. If you see the price go up today on big volume you'll know why.

Any other parties game enough to start making offers will have to wait till the government
changes. I feel sorry for the board members who were behind this from the beginning

[Hawke]

You nasty business owners (AIA) need to understand that this Govt controls Everything.
Just be quite and comply totally with these Communists in charge.

Can we pls have the help of GW Bush- we need regime change!

Hawke.