Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA) [Archive] - Page 3

brettdale

11-04-2008, 10:14 AM

Helen Clark the most Despicable Prime Minister in History

Make no mistake, it was Clark and Cullun who were behind turning down the Canadian pension fund buying into Auckland Airport International and it was the wrong decision. This extreme far left Government who would rather do deals with China than North America, are showing that they have moved on from being a socialist party to a communist one.

As someone said on a share trader blog

"Do you really think they are going to step in when the Chinese tries to buy Vector Limited?"

It's disappointing for all New Zealanders who do share trading, doesn't matter if your a newbie like myself or someone who has been investing in the markets for decades.

You see what certain left wing bloggers and the media and Clark/Cullun don't understand is that , no one should have the right to tell me, who I can and who I cannot sell my shares to, this is what it comes down to in a nutshell.

Its not nothing to do with selling strategic assets, nothing about keeping it for little Jimmy or Sarah so they can travel to their airport and fly somewhere to watch the All Blacks, but wait and see there are going to be ads featuring people of all ages and cultures, smiling sweetly, saying "It's our airport" they will say this in all different languages, there will be members of the Green Party, saying it belongs to everybody, well that I'm afraid is sickening and insulting.

It doesn't belong to Jimmy or Sarah, or the Nigerian immigrant who loves being a kiwi. It doesn't belong to the good folks of the east coast singing on their Marae. It doesn't belong to the Pakeha or the Asian or anyone WHO DIDN'T INVEST IN IT!!!

It belongs to the SHAREHOLDERS, people like myself and no one in any decent system of democracy should have the right to tell me who I can or cannot sell my shares too, but we don't live in a decent democracy anymore thanks to Helen.

She has killed off foreign invest in our country.

(The Following has a Prison Break Spoiler)

In the last episode of season three of Prison Break that is due to air in New Zealand in two weeks, there's a scene when Tbag has over taken the Prison at Sona and gives a speech, he receives 50 thousand dollars from a outside contact and begins to tell the other prisoners that "everybody is equal, and everything belongs to everybody, he starts to hand out the money, of course keeping most of it to himself.

This sums up Helen Clark and her Communist Party to a tee, they think they know what is best for you, they will tell you that they are giving you gifts, and worst of all, while actually taking your money, they will make out that its in your best interest.

Its about control folks, we don't know whats best for us, so it's best to leave the decisions to Helen and if your thinking about buying shares, I would think twice, you never know if the most Despicable Prime Minister in History would try and guilt trip the media and public into letting the government make that decision for us.

BRICKS

11-04-2008, 10:21 AM

OF all the takeovers i have seen this is the worst, but the gut feeling is it wont go ahead there will be much yelling on both sides of everything when the dust settles it will be a 19.9% grab at a much cheaper price they could even use the creep method after that and still one day gain control but much CHEAPER every one will know FRIDAY..

BRICKS hates to say , But i told you so an this was the worse t/o in NZ history as there is not many true companies left in NZ you should be grateful that AIA stays that way myself have lost money but happy with the outcome so the company can now get back to WORK..

beacon

11-04-2008, 10:31 AM

A man was walking down a street, when he saw a house on Sale. He stopped and started asking the neighbours if the Sale of the house should be stopped, as the new buyer was relatively unknown. Better the devil you know, than the devil you don't. The neighbours said the house shouldn't be sold. So the man walked in the house, slapped the owners, locked the house up, threw away the sale sign, and shooed away the buyer. The man felt so happy, as he had done what the community wanted.

Moral: Sellers are not part of the community. Their opinion doesn't matter. You have the right to stop the sale of what doesn't belong to you. You can do it again and again with impunity. Go the Man. We love the Man.

BRICKS

11-04-2008, 10:38 AM

brettdale

11-04-2008, 11:05 AM

Surly it wont drop below 2.00?

redzone

11-04-2008, 11:06 AM

IF THIS GOVERNMENT WANTED TO KEEP THE AIRPORT SO BABLY WHY DIDNT THEY BUY IT....CORRUPT CORRUPT CORRUPT...Just like the purchase of Air NZ eight years ago...Cullen and Clark should be in jail

Dr_Who

11-04-2008, 11:20 AM

Will the market put a discount on the valuation now that there are no T/O premium?

11-04-2008, 11:26 AM

Surly it wont drop below 2.00?
It is moving back up now. My guess is it was just an overreaction as people got rid of shares that they only bought to get the take over premium.

Disc: hold. Buy order for more didn't get hit (2c off)

COLIN

11-04-2008, 11:33 AM

777

11-04-2008, 02:36 PM

Some big parcels today. 3,000,000 and 1,500,000 in the past half hour.

Canadians reducing perhaps?????

BRICKS

11-04-2008, 02:44 PM

Some big parcels today. 3,000,000 and 1,500,000 in the past half hour.

Canadians reducing perhaps?????

AS you say someone out or someone in the T/O is approaching 15,00,000 million so its a big move whatever, have taken the chance to double my HOLDING..

peat

11-04-2008, 06:57 PM

Well I will make a post in this thread even if not an owner because its much more than just a sharetrade at issue here, its the distinction - which this government has failed to make - between allowing (yet alone encouraging) foreign investment and protecting local resources.
This government has until now resisted the urge to make politically expedient decisions so this decision is a little surprising to me. Clearly its ideologically based and even if it probably wont alienate their main electoral support base, with the new Chinese FTA it will likely bring about difficult decisions in the future.

So for the share, now its back to a question of value , according to FINDATA the NTA is at 1.90 and the chart as well shows a lot of support around that level. PE at 23 is still pretty high really. But thats probably historical, so could be lower. I suspect earnings are pretty stable and that yield and a blue-chip (eek that word is tainted now) utility factor will support this share if times get tough.

BRICKS

12-04-2008, 12:01 PM

Well I will make a post in this thread even if not an owner because its much more than just a sharetrade at issue here, its the distinction - which this government has failed to make - between allowing (yet alone encouraging) foreign investment and protecting local resources.
This government has until now resisted the urge to make politically expedient decisions so this decision is a little surprising to me. Clearly its ideologically based and even if it probably wont alienate their main electoral support base, with the new Chinese FTA it will likely bring about difficult decisions in the future.

So for the share, now its back to a question of value , according to FINDATA the NTA is at 1.90 and the chart as well shows a lot of support around that level. PE at 23 is still pretty high really. But that's probably historical, so could be lower. I suspect earnings are pretty stable and that yield and a blue-chip (eek that word is tainted now) utility factor will support this share if times get tough.

IS a nice story but lacks detail,, The gov said "Its not in the best interests of NEW ZEALAND" that's there decision for the whole of NEW ZEALAND that's there JOB and that's what happened the DEAL is off. THE real worry now is who bought & sold yesterday over 19,000,000 million AIA and made a big day for NZX that's the question NOW..

redzone

12-04-2008, 03:04 PM

BUT WE MUST KEEP OUR PRIME ASSETS, GREAT MOVE, IN ZB/POLL 74%FOR DECISSION 26% AGAINST. EVEN NATIONAL PARTY DIEHARD, JOHN BANKS FOR IT. ps if govt did not step into our national carier air nz when it did, few year back it would have a aussy flag on it. airnz has over 1billion $$$in reserve. QUaNTAS inthe sh--.. god bless helen:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

No one said to sell 100%....this was 28% for god sake....what the hell do you think the Cullen does ...oh hell it buys shares in companies all around the world....19million shares sold yesterday...I suppose we will see the Cullen fund on the share reg big time....corrupt....Air NZ ...not a problem with the bail out...it was the way they went about the bail out .... again Cullen and Clark cost the shareholders millions...yes the mums and dads of NZ ,millions....oh and what about the shareholders of Telecom....these idiots are pathetic and corrupt...bring on Wisharts out coming of Helen on the 21st...maybe that will open a few idiots eyes to the real truth....cant smack that baby Helen

Steve

12-04-2008, 03:35 PM

...bring on Wisharts out coming of Helen on the 21st...maybe that will open a few idiots eyes to the real truth....cant smack that baby Helen

Care to expand Redzone?

Hawke

12-04-2008, 04:37 PM

I thought every one knows (even the hard dark red Labour rabble!) that Helen is halfway in and half way out of the closet.

Just ask Heather Simpson or Judith Tizard.

Hawke.

winner69

12-04-2008, 07:29 PM

...... airnz has over 1billion $$$in reserve.

Always amazes me that they tout this $1 billion in cash ---- $750 million is prepaid fares ..... for which they have yet to pay to fly these passengers to whereever they want to go

Good thing for AIR is that it is in their bank

Hawke

12-04-2008, 08:02 PM

BRICKS

12-04-2008, 08:28 PM

What amazes me and truly beggers belief is that their are still halfwits that still support this Proven Corrupt, Proven Tax cash Thieving Labour Govt. For people who also follow shares to support Labour??? Labour hates personal property-shares are personal property!
Amazing.

Hawke.

YOU have a very large and hot mouth when writing in space,, So i hope you could prove all the items that you pointed out LUCKY that NZ is a FREE speech COUNTRY..

BDLBOM

12-04-2008, 08:55 PM

YOU have a very large and hot mouth when writing in space,, So i hope you could prove all the items that you pointed out LUCKY that NZ is a FREE speech COUNTRY..

And Helen has been doing her best to undermine freedom of speech. (electoral finance act etc)

BRICKS

12-04-2008, 08:58 PM

And Helen has been doing her best to undermine freedom of speech. (electoral finance act etc)

YOU cant just say thing off the top of your HEAD..

BDLBOM

12-04-2008, 09:03 PM

....ORIGINAL REDZONE;national head office blue chip cost the shareholders millions...yes the mums and dads of NZ ,millions....oh and what about the national party members who are directors of BLUE CHIP....these idiots are pathetic and corrupt...bring on bishopWisharts out coming of Helen on the 21st...maybe that will open a few idiots eyes to the real truth....cant smack that baby Helen REDZONE key and national SUPORTED the baby smack bill
:D:D:D:D:D:D[/QUOTE]

Please tell us which National Party members are directors of Blue Chip.

Steve

12-04-2008, 09:25 PM

Please tell us which National Party members are directors of Blue Chip.

I beleive that they all resigned way before the sh!t hit the fan, but then again they would have had inside knowledge on the workings of Blue Chip...

BDLBOM

13-04-2008, 10:14 PM

Point taken Malcolm. Just goes to prove how selective the pollies (all parties) are about the application of their principles.
Expect the Chinese to get the Wgton networks.

BRICKS

14-04-2008, 11:33 AM

redzone

14-04-2008, 11:47 AM

ANOTHER 3 million and still early morn 23 million in two days the Brokers must love it, But sure some new notice will appear and the cat will be out of the bag, this could not be small players they where burned out days AGO..

Probably be the Cullen fund....oh how these Labour ****ers love spending other peoples money after the have shafted us all....and what about using the SOEs to push their polices after bringing in a law to stop all others...corrupt ...corrupt...corrupt...pathetic the lot of hem....and what about all those hairy legged pathetic so called female MPS on tele last night singing at the Labour Party gathering...what a joke that was....and they run this place...geeezzz

Toddy

14-04-2008, 01:26 PM

Morrison and IFT will have another go at implementing plan A. Plan A will now look like a fair offer to the AIA board and shareholders given the new foreign ownership rules and the current credit environment.

Move on from complaining about the politics that killed the Canadian bid. There is still a chance of walking away with a 20% plus premium on todays SP under a debt restructuring plan via IFT as the lead manager.

BRICKS

14-04-2008, 02:01 PM

[QUOTE=redzone;194598]Probably be the Cullen fund....oh how these Labour ****ers love spending other peoples money after the have shafted us all....and what about using the SOEs to push their polices after bringing in a law to stop all others...corrupt ...corrupt...corrupt...pathetic the lot of hem....and what about all those hairy legged pathetic so called female MPS on tele last night singing at the Labour Party gathering...what a joke that was....and they run this place...geeezzz[/QUOTe

You are a boring person if any one got shafted it was you not the rest of the mob if you want to YELL go and put your head in the BALLOT BOX and do your best but just talk about AIA the COMPANY..

Dr_Who

14-04-2008, 02:05 PM

The Middle Eastern tried it and failed. The Canadians tried and failed. And now there are no one left in the line except for auntie Helen and uncle Cullen. BRICKS, dont tell me you are gonna stand in the market and buy 20% of AIA... LOL Didnt you spend all your money on KFC?

COLIN

14-04-2008, 02:20 PM

what is the UNBELIEVIBLE story of the century a high percentage of those who have been caught out in this terrible corrupt blue chip saga are Nat party DECIPLES. PS LET in beknown i geniune feel for all those who unfortunatly have been sucked by these unsavory buisness people who would have well prepared there family trusts with your money, eg rod petrovic anothier ex nat/act member and ex close (or now convientlyex) rodney hydes friend..;););)

I hope that your socialist friends are mostly better at spelling than you, Malcolm!

Anyway, to get back on track: I have been musing about possible scenarios in this "Protection of Strategic Assets" imbroglio. What is to stop two unrelated overseas parties (i.e. unrelated to each other) each acquiring up to a 19.9% interest in a NZ Company, perhaps gradually over time, and quite independent of each other, and then one of those parties merges with the other? How could the NZ OIO or the Takeover Panel or meddling politicians put a stop to that? The takeover might be just part of a much wider move, such as BHP taking over RIO.
Now shoot me down in flames!

mondograss

14-04-2008, 02:26 PM

Bricks may not, but Infratil might.

I don't see what's wrong with the company remaining NZ owned. It's not like we don't have the expertise here to run it properly. Nor is it as if the company is underperforming. The only thing that could happen is that it could begin to really abuse its monopoly position (some would argue it already does) to squeeze extra profits out and frankly that would be bad. First of all it would be bad long-term because it would help the case for the competing airport at Whenuapai and secondly it would be bad for the customers short-term because of the cost of travelling from there. Nobody should have seriously expected this deal to happen, not with the councils involved, not with the widespread public opposition to strategic asset sales and frankly if I wanted to hear this much whining, I'd visit the airport.

14-04-2008, 02:26 PM

Anyway, to get back on track: I have been musing about possible scenarios in this "Protection of Strategic Assets" imbroglio. What is to stop two unrelated overseas parties (i.e. unrelated to each other) each acquiring up to a 19.9% interest in a NZ Company, perhaps gradually over time, and quite independent of each other, and then one of those parties merges with the other? How could the NZ OIO or the Takeover Panel or meddling politicians put a stop to that? The takeover might be just part of a much wider move, such as BHP taking over RIO.
Now shoot me down in flames!

OIO could require divestment.

If the microsoft/yahoo merger goes ahead, the chinese govt, will be able to veto it based on similar rules.

Toddy

14-04-2008, 03:38 PM

Bricks may not, but Infratil might.

Nobody should have seriously expected this deal to happen, not with the councils involved, not with the widespread public opposition to strategic asset sales and frankly if I wanted to hear this much whining, I'd visit the airport.

The OIO recommended that the deal should go ahead. I'm not too sure about 'widespread public opposition to strategic asset sales' either. Only a minority interest was being sold and anyone that I talked to who was against the partnership did not understand the issues. All as they heard were the words 'my airport' and 'evil foreigners'.

Well done to Keys and his team for softening the issue by stating that National would not sell strategic assets during the first term. Keys knows damn well that a list of strategic assets does not even exist.

mondograss

14-04-2008, 04:43 PM

Yes, well done to Key, I don't think I could perform backflips and acrobatics anywhere as well as him. Impressive in man of 40+.

Regardless of whether the public understand the detail of the offer, they understand the word "monopoly" perfectly well. The list of strategic assets would be pretty short, they all got sold in the 80's and 90's anyway.

COLIN

14-04-2008, 05:17 PM

you don,t know the workings one bit about OIO, :D:D:D

So you do!

COLIN

14-04-2008, 05:41 PM

OIO could require divestment.

If the microsoft/yahoo merger goes ahead, the chinese govt, will be able to veto it based on similar rules.

Okay, and putting aside such questions as to how easy or otherwise it might be for NZ to force say the Russians or the Chinese to divest (by Helen and her Commisariat expropriating the shares, I suppose) lets just consider the scenario where several overseas parties gradually build up significant stakes in any Declared NZ Strategic Asset, so that eventually their combined holdings amount to say 40% or whatever. By the Diktats of Helengrad, control of this Strategic Asset will then be considered to have passed out of the hands of New Zealand. So, are we going to see the Comrades now passing legislation to prevent this happening by preventing the sale of ANY shares in AIA (& others on their Hit List) to foreigners?
And talking of Strategic Assets, what could be more strategic than our oil and gas reserves? What is going to be the attitude, for instance, of large overseas exploration companies regarding investment in the Great South Basin? We would need billions of dollars to develop these fields - are these billions going to come from within NZ? (The answer is obvious.)
We are going backwards, my friends, and the sad thing is that the ordinary Joe Blow just has no comprehension of the issues involved.

14-04-2008, 05:49 PM

lets just consider the scenario where several overseas parties gradually build up significant stakes in any Declared NZ Strategic Asset, so that eventually their combined holdings amount to say 40% or whatever.
Unless they act together, then they have no control. I do get your point though.

Solution: Air NZ use to have 2 classes of shares (A and B) with only the B shares (49% of total) being able to be held by non residents. This was done as landing rights in other countries depends on (depended on?) agreements between governments so the airline had to be owned by that country to benefit. This all came crassing down when Singapore made a grab, Helen shot AIRNZ out of the air, made comments with insider knowledge, then grabbed 75% at bargain basement pricing co making all investors (except "the New Zealand public") a lot worse off (% wise, I think I lost more on AIR than I did on AIA)

redzone

14-04-2008, 05:52 PM

Colin you are so right...

bring on the 21st April when the real truth about our so called leader comes out

minimoke

14-04-2008, 06:27 PM

Now its my turn to slag off this rubbish government decision. They have shown utter contempt for the private property and ownership rights of the individual. They have trampled on the desires of the mums and dad investors as well as the hard done by rate payers in Manukau and other councils.

They have refused to define what a strategic asset is. If its a long piece of dirt to land planes in Auckland then Whenuapai can do that. With a bit of tax payer cash the government could do what they like with this land to create the strategic asset they imagine -heaven forbid.

They have no idea what AIA is. Sure it has a big piece of dirt. But the Cannucks didn’t want to buy just a bit of sea side real estate. They also wanted a cut of retail space, property rentals, car parking, gas power and water sales revenues. The piece of dirt only generates $60m odd whereas retail is $90m.

So the Govt is basically saying “the tax payer and voter won’t wear us buying the thing like AIR so no one else can have it”. The govt knows best than the simpleton voter. “We know you don’t know how to save so Aunty Helen will set up a taxpayer KiwiSaver fund where you do pretty much nothing but reap the benefits. We’ll teach you how to bank – lets ignore the fact there’re are heaps of banks, credit unions and saving societies –we’ll use tax money to set up our own bank. You’re a student – here’s a lesson. We’ll give you some money and you won’t have to pay interest on it. Can’t afford kids – don’t worry we’ll pay you to breed – after all we need more dunderheads to vote for us in the future”. And the government has the gall to legislate against financial advisors and real estate agents. They’re having a laugh!

And shame on National for not having the gonads and saying if the Canadians want AIA they can have it – lock stock and barrel. None of this 49% rubbish.

brettdale

14-04-2008, 07:11 PM

Here Here!!

Excellent Post!!

mondograss

15-04-2008, 09:21 AM

So what is the significance of the 21st April? New issue of Investigate or something is it?

Nitaa

15-04-2008, 12:12 PM

Colin you are so right...

bring on the 21st April when the real truth about our so called leader comes out redzonw, minimokes of this world. if the governement allowed the sale you would be up in arms. I dont get it. Whatever they do you just want to take an opposite view. Time to get a life, get a grip on something and pull your head in a bit.

Ihave no idea on what the polls may have suggested but imo i beleive the general public would have supported the government just like they have the last 8 years

minimoke

15-04-2008, 12:32 PM

redzonw, minimokes of this world. if the governement allowed the sale you would be up in arms. I dont get it.
Nita. Thankfully I have the ability to think and speak for myself – though Labour is working hard at changing this. For the record I would not be in the least bit upset if the government allowed the sale. Indeed the government should not be involved in even the smallest way with the sale process. It is not their property – AIA belongs to the shareholders. It is not a strategic asset because they cannot define a strategic asset. And if the general public want a view on AIA and its future then should buy some shares and vote! Any government that doesn’t meddle in the private lives of its citizens gets my support – where they do meddle (and Labour likes to meddle) then I won’t be a doormat and pull my head in.

redzone

15-04-2008, 02:45 PM

redzonw, minimokes of this world. if the governement allowed the sale you would be up in arms. I dont get it. Whatever they do you just want to take an opposite view. Time to get a life, get a grip on something and pull your head in a bit.

Ihave no idea on what the polls may have suggested but imo i beleive the general public would have supported the government just like they have the last 8 years

I dont give a rats if the bloody airport was sold or not....its just that it wasnt the governments business to get involved.....if they wanted it then buy it at the price the offer was at....the shareholders then could make up their own minds if they wanted it sold or not....and if the government did buy it, then its shareholders(us the tax payers) could make up our minds at the next election as to whether we thought it was a good decision or not........time to get a life...a well worn comment...and general public....well we can see how bright they are...we still have a labour government...

BRICKS

15-04-2008, 03:46 PM

Probably be the Cullen fund....oh how these Labour ****ers love spending other peoples money after the have shafted us all....and what about using the SOEs to push their polices after bringing in a law to stop all others...corrupt ...corrupt...corrupt...pathetic the lot of hem....and what about all those hairy legged pathetic so called female MPS on tele last night singing at the Labour Party gathering...what a joke that was....and they run this place...geeezzz

IF you don't give a RATS about the Airport why are you boring us about the above items yet again and AGAIN..

redzone

15-04-2008, 03:56 PM

Bricks it the princible really...so Im sorry if it is boring...

Deev8

15-04-2008, 06:13 PM

....its just that it wasnt the governments business to get involved.....if they wanted it then buy it at the price the offer was at....If the government wanted to own the airport they shouldn't have sold shares in it to the public in the first place.

mondograss

16-04-2008, 09:25 AM

And which party do you think it was that sold it in the first place, Deev8?

redzone

16-04-2008, 09:53 AM

doesnt matter who sold it....once it was sold it wasnt theirs to butt in ....I agree with Fran OS.....the government should know list what companies it considers not for overseas ownership....then watch those companies struggle to raise funds ...their SPs would collapse...their dykes cant even sing

Yossarian

16-04-2008, 10:22 AM

Deev8

16-04-2008, 11:35 AM

And which party do you think it was that sold it in the first place, Deev8?Whichever party had been elected to office by the public of New Zealand - but party is irrelevant. The shares were sold without attached conditions on overseas ownership (although it would have been reasonable to attach such conditions at the time of sale).

Attaching conditions to the ownership of those shares years later, and part way though a bid for the company, only harms the reputation of the New Zealand market.

By the way, I voted against the offer proceeding. I didn't think that would be to the long-term benefit of shareholders. But the ends didn't justify the means.

Deev8

16-04-2008, 11:37 AM

surely an asset is only worth what you can sell it for?You can look at it another way - an asset is worth the income it can generate for you in the future. In the case of the airport that's a significant sum.

Toddy

16-04-2008, 11:43 AM

you raise a very valid point redzone... there are virtually no NZ buyers of these assets, so therefore they become virtually unsellable. Graeme Hart and the Super Fund are about the only true NZ "persons" with any real dosh (i.e. in the billions)... and both are unlikely for different reasone.

surely an asset is only worth what you can sell it for?

Remember that the strategic asset list is something that Helen and Cullen imposed overnight. Common sense will prevail after the general election. In the mean time we just need to stay calm and sit it out.

Deev8

16-04-2008, 11:55 AM

Fran O'Sullivan's article in todays Herald is worth a read - Time to list strategic assets (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10504307)

777

16-04-2008, 12:05 PM

A $12.5 million parcel went though this morning at $2.26 a share.

Would be interesting to know who are on each end of this transaction.

mondograss

16-04-2008, 03:15 PM

Zaphod

16-04-2008, 05:23 PM

The problem with having a list is that it then proves too limiting and would need to be constantly maintained. Far better to have criteria that can be applied to each individual instance. Questions such as: "Is the asset a company in a monopoly position?" "What options exist to mitigate the effect of the monopoly?" etc. The OIO criteria would appear to be a bit subjective and would probably benefit from having guidelines about what constitutes a "substantial benefit to NZ".

The political party of the day is entirely relevant to this, as Labour and National have ideologically different views of how asset sales and foreign investment benefit the country. We lack big companies and big state assets for exactly this reason. Muldoon took apart Norman Kirks retirement savings scheme which would have built up capital locally. Then he blew the bank on "Think Big". Then the rogernomes of Labour started the fire sale of state assets which National cheerfully continued through to '98. All of this brings us back to today, starting from scratch with the retirement savings again etc.

I'm sure we are a laughing stock internationally, but not for the reasons that many here are suggesting. We have sold everything, failed to build up capital, opened our markets and industries to full competition without expecting the same of our competitors and now we are desperate to cling on to what little we have left.

I think it is entirely possible and appropriate to draw up a list of assets that the Government of the day deems to be strategic. You've already presented a list that could (with some additions) be used as criteria to evaluate all assets against, in order to derive a definitive list.

Kiwisaver has been billed the solution to the problem that does not exist, and I have to say that I agree with that statement. New Zealanders do not have a problem with saving per se, they have a problem with the vehicle in which they choose to save these funds, which for the majority of New Zealanders is property. New Zealanders have for one reason or another shied away from the stock market for both direct and indirect investment cases, in greater proportions than other western economies. But this is a whole other argument that is best discussed away from the AIA thread! ;)

macduffy

16-04-2008, 05:48 PM

Good points, Z.
As you say, subject best pursued on another thread, except that AIA experience is one of the reasons why Kiwis are disinterested in the sharemarket.

:(

BRICKS

17-04-2008, 09:15 AM

Good points, Z.
As you say, subject best pursued on another thread, except that AIA experience is one of the reasons why Kiwis are disinterested in the sharemarket.

:(

WITH over 50 million AIA shares traded in the last 5 days would hardly call that Disinterested the trouble is KIWI`s is there love of real estate and debt if they could over cum the urge and swing to shares with NO debt NZ would be a better PLACE..

17-04-2008, 09:26 AM

WITH over 50 million AIA shares traded in the last 5 days would hardly call that Disinterested.

How do you know they weren't foreigners - my guess is a large chunk were hedge funds.

BRICKS

17-04-2008, 10:48 AM

How do you know they weren't foreigners - my guess is a large chunk were hedge funds.

WHAT matters is that the shares are going through the NZX and if you want to join in your WELCOME

Steve

19-04-2008, 03:06 PM

With this distraction out of the way, where do people see 'fair-value' for the AIA shareprice?

winner69

19-04-2008, 08:05 PM

With this distraction out of the way, where do people see 'fair-value' for the AIA shareprice?

Forecast earnings say 8-9 c/s with PE of market average 14 is $1.12-$1.26 (why should AIA have a PE in excess of 20? (ASB has maeket PE at 12 so at 12 is $0.96 - $1.08

Forecast dividend is 8 cents so a grossed up 10% yield gives about 1.20 Putting some reasonable sort of numbers in a DDM gave $0.96 stretched to $1.46 if some of the growth assumptions are changed.

Even using EBITDA multplies and the like hard to come up with anything like $2.00.

So using the numbers above say about $1.20 .... maybe another takeover in the wind somewhere so add a premium of say $0.40 and you end up with $1.60

Maybe there is another pension fund happy with 5% long term returns and as such happy to pay over the odds today ...... or maybe a Macquarie who with a fair degree of financial engineering would probably see $4.00 worth of value but then they wouldn't have to pay that much today would they.

Why worry what the fundamnetals might suggest what a fair value is .... isn't fair value what people are prepared to pay for it ..... a while ago some said $3.60 but today it is only a tad over $2.00

What do you think is 'fair value' Steve ........ and are you buying at todays price.

redzone

19-04-2008, 08:24 PM

my fair value is about $1.80..$1.90....nothing more....

777

19-04-2008, 08:38 PM

my fair value is about $1.80..$1.90....nothing more....

So why did the Canadians offer so much?

A premium of 100%.....

BRICKS

20-04-2008, 09:41 AM

my fair value is about $1.80..$1.90....nothing more....

69, where you a sleep when you wrote that rubbish..

redzone, How many do you own at any PRICE..

777, IF you cant work it out by now you never WILL..

Steve, the fair price is what ever you can GET..

AIA, is $2.17 cents..

Steve

20-04-2008, 08:59 PM

Now it could be time for a bit of activity behind the scenes...

Airport chairman in the hot seat amid Canada bid fallout (http://www.stuff.co.nz/4489541a13.html)
A big Auckland International Airport (AIA) shareholder has lost confidence in chairman Tony Frankham as the man to take the company forward after the failed partial takeover bid by a Canadian pension fund, the Sunday Star-Times understands.

It has also learnt significant institutional shareholders regard Frankham as a compromise chairman elected to try to keep disparate elements together in what they regard as a largely dysfunctional board.

Steve

20-04-2008, 09:10 PM

What do you think is 'fair value' Steve ........ and are you buying at todays price.

My current estimate is approx $1.75 based on similar models to what you have used. I am not buying at todays price. In fact, I have not bought any more since the initial IPO...

Nitaa

21-04-2008, 06:23 PM

My current estimate is approx $1.75 based on similar models to what you have used. I am not buying at todays price. In fact, I have not bought any more since the initial IPO...I am not a shareholder of AIA. In sayiong that i am glad the government stood firm on their decision not to let a company or assetrr like AIA be sold offshore even if they didnt get control. Here is what i encountered today. Carpark fee for 1 hour 2 minutes $10.00 Wifi 1 hour $9.50. Departure tax..whatever it was. These are some of the basic services we offer not only to our own people but to overseas people. Why for a few quick bucks aree some of us so short sighted that we want to give easy money away to foreign investors. It makes no sense.

Personally i think the prices are a rip off, however it is a user pay system which has merits but keep the bloody money in nz. Lets support our own people before we start giveing out freebees to others

BRICKS

21-04-2008, 06:41 PM

I am not a shareholder of AIA. In saying that i am glad the government stood firm on their decision not to let a company or asset like AIA be sold offshore even if they didn't get control. Here is what i encountered today. Car park fee for 1 hour 2 minutes $10.00 Wifi 1 hour $9.50. Departure tax..whatever it was. These are some of the basic services we offer not only to our own people but to overseas people. Why for a few quick bucks agree some of us so short sighted that we want to give easy money away to foreign investors. It makes no sense.

Personally i think the prices are a rip off, however it is a user pay system which has merits but keep the bloody money in nz. Lets support our own people before we start giving out freebies to others

GOOD on yer, some one at last is talking straight from the hip and not from there back pocket AIA can only get better, So Nita save up your lunch money and just BUY a couple of hundred and own a good piece of real estate in AULCKLAND..

peat

21-04-2008, 10:12 PM

I assume everyone saw that Infratil is increasing its holding. 109 million now. Lloyd on a mission heh

QOH

21-04-2008, 10:25 PM

I assume everyone saw that Infratil is increasing its holding. 109 million now. Lloyd on a mission heh

Yes saw that tonight. Hope it does something for IFT share price.

22-04-2008, 08:13 AM

I assume everyone saw that Infratil is increasing its holding. 109 million now. Lloyd on a mission heh

Looks like he increased by 11m shares or $25m worth.

But.. it is the shares he controls for the NZ superfund, not IFT.

So as we expected, the Govt distroys the price of AIA, the the NZ superfund jumps in (now owning 7.3% up from 6%).

BRICKS

22-04-2008, 09:34 AM

Looks like he increased by 11m shares or $25m worth.

But.. it is the shares he controls for the NZ superfund, not IFT.

So as we expected, the Govt distroys the price of AIA, the the NZ superfund jumps in (now owning 7.3% up from 6%).

BUT there must be more Buyers lurking some where as over 50 million was SOLD last week.

But he is only doing what the CAN`s wanted to do but you need 19% which is a long way off and a lot of money to get, this figure it would push up the PRICE of AIA..

Toddy

22-04-2008, 10:27 AM

Looks like he increased by 11m shares or $25m worth.

But.. it is the shares he controls for the NZ superfund, not IFT.

So as we expected, the Govt distroys the price of AIA, the the NZ superfund jumps in (now owning 7.3% up from 6%).

But, isn't the relevant question here................ Why is Morrison and Co buying shares in AIA on behalf of the Super Fund when bigger players (Tower, Fisher etc) have been sacked because of quote 'the management of the Super Fund has been bought inhouse'.

Hence, does this mean that Morrison and Co are inhouse?

There is a cunning plan afoot that will have 100% backing from the GOVT.

BRICKS

22-04-2008, 10:43 AM

But, isn't the relevant question here................ Why is Morrison and Co buying shares in AIA on behalf of the Super Fund when bigger players (Tower, Fisher etc) have been sacked because of quote 'the management of the Super Fund has been bought inhouse'.

Hence, does this mean that Morrison and Co are inhouse?

There is a cunning plan afoot that will have 100% backing from the GOVT.

ALL your suggestions don't really amount to much, NZ super fund has to put its money some where and small NZX dose keep the money in NZ, Who holds the shares means nothing as in AU the fund would do all this work without reference to anybody when they wake they should do the SAME...

BRICKS

22-04-2008, 12:18 PM

WELL the Canadians are OUT and IN come the AMERCAINS..

BUGGER me a new lot called: Julius Baer Investment Management.

With 100 investors from New York mainly Pension Funds with 5.109%..

There is smoke there must be FIRE..

THE PUN , Watch this SPACE..

ratkin

22-04-2008, 02:28 PM

This part of their traffic update made me smile

Canadian arrivals were strong, up 12.4% for the month and up 8.6% on
a 12 month rolling basis

brettdale

22-04-2008, 02:34 PM

I was thrilled with the traffic update, all increases across the board, should at least steady the share price!

BRICKS

22-04-2008, 03:14 PM

I was thrilled with the traffic update, all increases across the board, should at least steady the share price!

THE yanks have just bought 5% and we talk about the traffic update, What happen to all the KIWI`s who where yelling down with Helen Clark and that bloody NZ Fund its a plot,

Well the plot is 5% has just gone very cheap and not a sound from you [KIWI] mite well say a silent PARTNER..

JMKC

22-04-2008, 03:21 PM

Julius Baer have been a holder for years. Don't get too excited.

peat

22-04-2008, 03:25 PM

This part of their traffic update made me smile

Canadian arrivals were strong, up 12.4% for the month and up 8.6% on
a 12 month rolling basis

domestic traffic set to improve this year? ;)

BRICKS

22-04-2008, 03:53 PM

Julius Baer have been a holder for years. Don't get too excited.

WELL they now have 62.5 million and over 5% and only just bought they could become a blocking force if required,, Are they on anyone's side Helen's or NZ fund looks like deep POCKETS..

Toddy

22-04-2008, 04:11 PM

This part of their traffic update made me smile

Canadian arrivals were strong, up 12.4% for the month and up 8.6% on
a 12 month rolling basis

Another reason to smile is that as Helen chases those Kiwi's over to Aussie it increases the tasman numbers. All those kids coming home for xmas or their parents heading over to Aussie to see their grand children.

Does Winnie know about all of these foreigners sneeking around our shores.

redzone

22-04-2008, 05:46 PM

what a pathetic vote snatching shambles.....H Clinton was right when she said only cochroaches and Clark would survive a H bomb

BRICKS

23-04-2008, 09:03 AM

Julius Baer have been a holder for years. Don't get too excited.

WELL on checking the Annual 2007 Twenty Largest Shareholders there name fails to appear any where even under of the sub sections so have now emerge as the newest 4 biggest holder so where are all you KIWI KNOCKERS..

Zaphod

23-04-2008, 12:36 PM

WELL the Canadians are OUT and IN come the AMERCAINS..
..

Actually they're Swiss.

Zaphod

23-04-2008, 12:37 PM

Papers reveal Treasury's strong opposition to blocking airport bid

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10505755

Very interesting read.

Why have advisors when you ignore their unanimous recommendations? Would save the taxpayer a considerable amount in salaries too

BRICKS

23-04-2008, 01:59 PM

Actually they're Swiss.

330 Madison Avenue
New York. NY 10017
United States..

That makes them Yank's, You call them what you like ??

and they still are 4th largest holder of AIA..

Zaphod

23-04-2008, 02:55 PM

330 Madison Avenue
New York. NY 10017
United States..

That makes them Yank's, You call them what you like ??

and they still are 4th largest holder of AIA..

So by your definition, ANZ-National are a New Zealand bank then?

Edit: Check out http://www.juliusbaer.com/global/en/Pages/default.aspx You'll understand...

BRICKS

23-04-2008, 03:34 PM

So by your definition, ANZ-National are a New Zealand bank then?

Edit: Check out http://www.juliusbaer.com/global/en/Pages/default.aspx You'll understand...

BROKERS that represent New York clients USA owners in the long run own AIA, Julius bear
went out of there way to point out they owned NO, AIA holdings..

AS for ANZ - National is a BANK only in NZ as part of ANZ AU.

peat

23-04-2008, 04:01 PM

BRICKS

23-04-2008, 05:09 PM

Surely Julius Baer are just wealth managers holding the shares as nominees so it doesnt matter whether they are Swiss or whether the office doing the transaction has a New York address or whatever. I thought I saw they had a few shares for various American pension funds - nurses from memory.
...so a pointless argument really.

but whats indisputable is that institutional interest is still there

Julius is only holding the shares for clients as they stated for the various funds you mentioned but they have NO shares in them as WELL, BUT the story is that they now have a good slice of AIA 4th biggest but NO one is complaining you should ring up Helen and let her what's going ON...

spook

28-04-2008, 10:02 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10506424

I'm sure most of us on here would be in favour of any legal action.
The question is who wants to foot the bill?

28-04-2008, 10:47 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10506424

I'm sure most of us on here would be in favour of any legal action.
The question is who wants to foot the bill?

Just need some ambulence chaser willing to work on a contingency fee only. Would you join up if the Lawyer was charging a 30% contingency + costs?

BRICKS

28-04-2008, 04:54 PM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10506424

I'm sure most of us on here would be in favour of any legal action.
The question is who wants to foot the bill?

YOUR wasting your time thinking about as its only paper talk to fill in space what has happened has happened there will be NO way for CHANGE..

Zaphod

29-04-2008, 01:51 PM

BRICKS

29-04-2008, 04:54 PM

Airport law doesn't apply to Vector deal, Cullen says

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10506900

Perhaps this is because of the competing lines network in Wellington, that provides consumers choice over their supplier? Oh hang on....

BUT there are many net works and you can pick a supplier but only one lovely big piece of real estate called AIRPORT..

Dr_Who

29-04-2008, 05:08 PM

Bricks, didi you piss Cullen off? :D

Zaphod

29-04-2008, 06:16 PM

BUT there are many net works and you can pick a supplier but only one lovely big piece of real estate called AIRPORT..

You can choose your electricity provider, but you cannot choose the underlying lines provider.

Yossarian

30-04-2008, 08:53 AM

BUT there are many net works and you can pick a supplier but only one lovely big piece of real estate called AIRPORT..

just more evidence of our obsession with property in this country, eh bricks!

spook

30-04-2008, 09:24 AM

BUT there are many net works and you can pick a supplier but only one lovely big piece of real estate called AIRPORT..

Funny thing is if you look at maps from 50 years ago, that real estate we're talking about was mudflats...........

There's plenty of them in the Manukau and I haven't heard anyone calling them strategic!

foodee

30-04-2008, 12:35 PM

Interesting
Wonder how strategic it is if there happens to be 2 international airports in Auck?

30-04-2008, 01:07 PM

Interesting
Wonder how strategic it is if there happens to be 2 international airports in Auck?
Judging by Cullens quotes re Vector, what he means by strategic doesn't refer to the asset itself (airport or lines) but to the land. therefore, it was because it is a large peice of coastal land, not that it has an airport on it.

Note that the strategic asset reason was only one of many that influenced the ministers to turn it down. On the basis that their reasons were made up, they probably could have turned down the sale regardless of whether the stategic asset rule was brought it (remember they ignored OIO officials advice).

macduffy

30-04-2008, 01:32 PM

Yes, there's a precedent for this - " Alice in Wonderland".

:rolleyes:

BRICKS

01-05-2008, 03:21 PM

WELL in the last few days the AIA. t/o has jumped 2million hear 3million there 2mil today looks like the NEW YORKERS are back at it again upping the holding at very cheap prices pity the last mob did not have the same BRAINS..

Major von Tempsky

09-05-2008, 10:44 AM

Might be a different tune when the Nats get in later this year ;-)

Toddy

09-05-2008, 04:02 PM

Might be a different tune when the Nats get in later this year ;-)

The heat will go off AIA once the Govt puts in its bid for Contact Energy.

Dr_Who

09-05-2008, 04:55 PM

The heat will go off AIA once the Govt puts in its bid for Contact Energy.

Na mate, VCT is more likely target.

brettdale

11-05-2008, 07:02 PM

I dont see much movement in this stock either way, I dont think it will drop below $2 or get pass $3 this year.

Zaphod

14-05-2008, 12:43 PM

Simon Moutter is very much of the same ilk as Gatting; his ideas usually revolve around retaining the profits and to eek out services in order to maximise shareholder return.

Hopefully if he follows these ideals at AIA, it doesn't raise the ire of Government who step in to regulate prices. That may however, already be on the cards anyway with Labour.
-------------

AIA
14/05/2008
OFFICE

REL: 0846 HRS Auckland International Airport Limited

OFFICE: AIA: Auckland Airport appoints Simon Moutter as next CEO

Auckland Airport today announced that Simon Moutter has been appointed its
next Chief Executive. He will join the company within the next three months.

Simon's most recent position was Chief Operating Officer (Business) at
Telecom New Zealand, where he led the company's business customer operations
in New Zealand and in Australia. The five businesses within the group employ
over 2,900 staff and have $2.2 billion in annual revenue.

He joined Telecom in 1999, from the position of Chief Executive at Powerco,
where he was responsible for creating New Zealand's fourth largest
electricity and gas distribution business at the time.

Simon will succeed Don Huse, who announced his retirement from this role at
the Airport's annual meeting in October 2007. Mr Huse has held the position
for the past five years.

Chairman of Auckland Airport Tony Frankha
m said he and the Auckland Airport
board is delighted to have appointed Simon Moutter.

"We conducted an international recruitment search and are very pleased to be
appointing Simon, with his unique experience leading key infrastructure
businesses in this country, as our new Chief Executive.

Filling the role after the impressive performance delivered by Don Huse
during his tenure was never going to be easy, however we feel confident
Simon's skills are well suited to build on our achievements to date.

In his leadership roles Simon has a notable track record in building highly
cohesive and effective senior management teams. This approach has delivered
superior business results throughout the organisations he has led and
increased market share in competitive environments.
His achievements make him the ideal person to lead the next stage in Auckland
Airport's master plan as we progressively expand our facilities to handle up
to 25 million passengers a year by 2025.
In addition, Simon's
familiarity with both the telecommunications and
electricity sector, two industries that have faced a changing regulatory
environment in the past 10 years, will be of great value to the airport in
the years ahead," Mr Frankham said.

Simon Moutter said Auckland Airport is very highly regarded, locally and
internationally, as a dynamic and well run business.

"It's a fantastic opportunity to lead a local company that makes such a
significant contribution to the New Zealand economy".

Simon, who lives in Auckland, is married with four children.

BRICKS

18-06-2008, 02:04 PM

WELL on this quite afternoon and the Yankees have stopped BUYing for a while so BRICKS doubled his holding just in case the wind changed direction, The s/price is coming down to near a three year low and the Airport still the best piece of real estate in TOWN..

brettdale

18-06-2008, 08:44 PM

Surly the price won't go below $2.00?

Dr_Who

19-06-2008, 09:47 AM

I dont know what graph you guys are looking at. My graph says it can go to as low as $1.80 if it breaches $2.00.

777

19-06-2008, 04:22 PM

Surly the price won't go below $2.00?

Yes.........

Toddy

19-06-2008, 04:45 PM

Surly the price won't go below $2.00?

The $3.65ish offered and turned down on behalf of the shareholders by the elected Govt is looking more sickening by the day.

brettdale

19-06-2008, 06:42 PM

I concur, Helen Clark has cost a lot of kiwis a lot of money.

BRICKS

20-06-2008, 11:17 AM

I concur, Helen Clark has cost a lot of kiwis a lot of money.

IF AIA, had been sold to CAN it would have removed another icon from the NZX but today you can BUY as many as you like and still own the best NZ real estate so if your broke go and talk to yourself about hate, if your flush buy them while there CHEAP..

COLIN

20-06-2008, 02:28 PM

IF AIA, had been sold to CAN it would have removed another icon from the NZX but today you can BUY as many as you like and still own the best NZ real estate so if your broke go and talk to yourself about hate, if your flush buy them while there CHEAP..

Who said anything about AIA being removed from the NZX? The Canadian Pension Fund was only seeking 40% - with a limit of 25% on their voting rights. Hardly "Removal of Another Icon".
I still can't accept that a single foreign holder of AIA, with 25% minority control, is as great a danger to the principle of having New Zealanders being in control of vital infrastructure, as the sale of Wellington's electricity distribution system to Chinese interests!

Dr_Who

20-06-2008, 03:24 PM

What's the dividend payment for AIA?

Sorry for being too lazy to look it up.

Hawke

20-06-2008, 08:17 PM

What's the dividend payment for AIA?

Sorry for being too lazy to look it up.

10.2c a share..............5.2% Div yield.

Not Good enough for the current market valuation/fundamentals.......with air travel possibly going to price itself upwards/out of some pockets. The Canadians got off lightly.
Air travels future picture is cloudy.
AIA/AIR to push new lows.....with oil above $100bbl.

Previous AIA holder.

Hawke.

BRICKS

21-06-2008, 10:26 AM

More large trades in the last ten minutes than during the day, AIA 1.7 mil total 4,750,393 down to $1.96 so then who is selling but best who is BUYING with these numbers and the only ones to put up there hand are "the yankees" you can then say come Monday it will be slaughter , Boy , what a day makes the $2.06 seems so much now but as the media keeps telling the price of Real estate going down must start to believe them SHORTLY..

foodee

21-06-2008, 01:04 PM

With a PE 27+, and yield 5%+;
A slowing profit trend & increasing cost;
Virtually little hope of situational play.
AIA doesn't look cheap.

disc: nil

redzone

21-06-2008, 03:15 PM

in fact very expensive...

BRICKS

22-06-2008, 10:42 AM

in fact very expensive...

WHAT is expensive its an AIRPORT.. and the only one WORKING..

Steve

22-06-2008, 04:27 PM

How do the financials stack up when compared against other listed airport companies?

ratkin

23-06-2008, 06:05 AM

AIA will always have a fairly high P/E , you have to pay a premium for quality assets.

Dr_Who

23-06-2008, 03:08 PM

In this market everything gets whacked, even the quality assets. It looks like $1.80 is not too far away.

Zaphod

23-06-2008, 07:11 PM

I think there is also a certain degree of public perception out there (rightly or wrongly) that the Airport and Airline sectors are extremely risky business ventures at this juncture due to high oil prices. How much that has influenced the price of this stock is anyone's guess.

brettdale

23-06-2008, 07:20 PM

In this market everything gets whacked, even the quality assets. It looks like $1.80 is not too far away.

Please dont say that, GRRRRRR I hate Labour.

BRICKS

03-07-2008, 03:32 PM

Thousands of small KIWI are jumping out as if it is DOOMS day many small parcels and they are doing there money "COLD" the airport still working when I checked so NO need for this mass exit will just have to BUY more "O what a FEELING"..

OR at lease DONT PANIC>>

BRICKS

07-07-2008, 04:01 PM

WELL there at it again you can sense the feeling of the small KIWI punter never had that much money to BUY but takeover talk and they sell the silver to get in now that they have done the silver they want to loose the once you sell there NO coming back better to average down at the moment as BRICKS is doing and bringing down the enter price on this good STOCK..

brettdale

07-07-2008, 09:59 PM

I really really really hate the Labour party.

BRICKS

08-07-2008, 09:59 AM

I really really really hate the Labour party.

Well thanks for telling us again so who are you going to Vote for lets say National, well they said they would not sell assets that means keep the railways then in the next breath we will sell ACC, NO body asked them about an airport, Thank God..

BRICKS dose not care who is in power beside being an Oz & not trusting any GOV they are a wind that blows and changes direction at the drop of a hat so dont fall in love with any
GOV. love the company that you BUY..

brettdale

02-08-2008, 11:38 PM

Well its about $2 again.

I'm thinking of selling at 2.25, if it gets there.

brettdale

11-08-2008, 08:04 PM

Pacific Blue flying Sydney to Auckland, how many flights a day?

Deev8

12-08-2008, 11:28 AM

Pacific Blue flying Sydney to Auckland, how many flights a day?It looks like one direct flight daily from Sunday to Thursday, and two direct flights on Fridays and Saturdays.

... and one direct flight 7 days a week on the new Melbourne to Auckland service from 22nd September.

BRICKS

12-08-2008, 11:30 AM

[QUOTE=brettdale;217817]Pacific Blue flying Sydney to Auckland, how many flights a day?[/QUOTE ]

Great news own VBA & AIA cant get much better than THAT..

brettdale

17-08-2008, 07:49 PM

AIA needed some good news, hopefully it will stay steady above 2 dollars.

brettdale

12-09-2008, 03:22 PM

So, should I hold off selling, until after the election? When National gets in, market sentiment might push this up??

brettdale

26-09-2008, 06:14 PM

Why the big drop today, was there an announcement? or just some profit taking?

ratkin

26-09-2008, 06:38 PM

Could of been air new zealands mention of flight cutbacks.

Long term this a no brainer , note that sydney airport today said they expected passenger numbers to double inside ten years.

craic

27-09-2008, 10:28 AM

Major companies with significant overseas shareholders can expect all sorts of anomalies in the price and value. People in other places hit the sell button according to the local level of paranoia in places like NY and this market is so small that a few thousand AIA shares hitting the market with no local buyers can have drastic effect.

BRICKS

03-10-2008, 06:14 PM

THE annual report very colorful but that's about all. Read it and now they want 80 million in bonds that's it RUN up DEBT..

macduffy

03-10-2008, 06:35 PM

THE annual report very colorful but that's about all. Read it and now they want 80 million in bonds that's it RUN up DEBT..

I doubt that it's to embark on some new venture but rather a case of re-financing or funding already committed expenditure.

;)

brettdale

06-10-2008, 04:52 PM

Who the heck is selling AIA shares, thats a crazy drop with no announcement.

777

06-10-2008, 04:55 PM

There are very few announcements for all the shares that have gone down today. It's just the market in total.

Why don't you top up?

brettdale

06-10-2008, 05:24 PM

Pay day is thursday, but I will use it to top up my aussie stocks.

bob.not.a.builder

06-10-2008, 05:52 PM

Is this the dividen? Is there any specified length of time I need to hold AIA to recieve a dividen?

777

06-10-2008, 07:06 PM

Is this the dividen? Is there any specified length of time I need to hold AIA to recieve a dividen?

Those holding shares at the 17/10/08 will be paid the dividend on 24/10/08.

All this information is on their website.

BRICKS

07-10-2008, 02:20 PM

IT may be pay day Thursday but could not wait down 4.2% @ $1.82 had to top up
that good piece of real estate just got better, BUY when NO one wants, ITS CHEAPER..

brettdale

07-10-2008, 05:31 PM

$1.80 now.

I am now in two minds, if I should top up aia or some of my aussie stocks?

BRICKS

07-10-2008, 05:46 PM

$1.80 now.

I am now in two minds, if I should top up aia or some of my aussie stocks?

AIA did the same trick at the end of the trade and dropped 900,000 shares after the bell to $1.80 this is a habit done by AU large investors hoping to keep it quite but today every watches,, As for your problem stay in NZ and top up at low price for AIA you money is much safer than being dominated in AUSTRALIA..

brettdale

07-10-2008, 07:06 PM

Thanks for the advice.

BRICKS

13-10-2008, 10:58 AM

WELL early trade and down AIA goes again to $1.67 hope real estate in Auckland is
not falling at this RATE..

brettdale

13-10-2008, 04:46 PM

$1.67, heck I should of sold at $2.34 when I had the chance.

That is a crazy price, I would top up, but dont trust the market.

BRICKS

13-10-2008, 05:02 PM

$1.67, heck I should of sold at $2.34 when I had the chance.

That is a crazy price, I would top up, but dont trust the market.

PAY day also is this Friday 17 th Oct and pay 24 th OCT.. you make wild statements
and then say you don't trust the market, calm the waters and BUY like we all do
take the up`s and down`s as they COME..

Dr_Who

13-10-2008, 05:46 PM

Its broken through the $1.80 support, so who knows how low it will go.

The Candians would probably get it for $2.00 when National gets into power.

BRICKS

13-10-2008, 06:14 PM

Its broken through the $1.80 support, so who knows how low it will go.

The Candians would probably get it for $2.00 when National gets into power.

Don'T forget the sky is falling world wide so this is not a correct market and there are to many holders over holding @ above $2 that's not a move, But $3 mite make a dent
but would not have as many strings as before, I feel it will be a straight out BID..

peat

14-10-2008, 10:43 AM

Auckland Int’l Airport - Jetstar adds blood to the bath - Jetstar has announced
it will operate daily flights from Auckland to Sydney and the Gold Coast from April
2009. The capacity 'bloodbath' on the Tasman is good news for AIA, and supports our
FY09 +2% international pax forecast and positive view. BUY

BRICKS

14-10-2008, 11:10 AM

bob.not.a.builder

01-11-2008, 12:52 AM

Those holding shares at the 17/10/08 will be paid the dividend on 24/10/08.

All this information is on their website.

I purchaced some more shares in September but I dont have the dividen for them.

macduffy

01-11-2008, 08:32 AM

I purchaced some more shares in September but I dont have the dividen for them.

Hi bob.

Better have a word with your broker. Holders at 17 October were certainly entitled to the div.

;)

777

01-11-2008, 09:18 AM

I purchaced some more shares in September but I dont have the dividen for them.

First of all you should check your registered holding at the registry.

https://www-au.computershare.com/investor/default.asp?bhjs=1&fla=1&cc=NZ&lang=en

If you have not had these shares registered to you then start investigating through your broker. You should have an up to date list of holdings from the registry anyhow so check that.

underground

06-11-2008, 12:28 PM

New CEO is flexing his muscles..

recently he has made redundant the general manager of engineering who was on circa $400K a year

and has now gone down to the next tier and intends to cut 5 out of the 11 senior managers off the payroll

he is systematically going through the hierachy and employee sentiment isnt as strong now that he said we wont be getting our christmas hams this year :(

brettdale

08-11-2008, 09:07 PM

This is what you want in a ceo, cut the costs.

BRICKS

08-11-2008, 10:34 PM

This is what you want in a ceo, cut the costs.

BUT the average KIWI has NO money to invest and things will remain the same

AIA is just another investment and will not make us RICH..

Zaphod

09-11-2008, 09:49 AM

While I agree in principal that cutting costs is a good thing, I have seen far too many instances of upper management achieving this goal by simply cutting those with the highest salaries first.

Ultimately this has cost the business far more down the line, as key institutional knowledge and skill-holders are removed from the company.

Hopefully AIA will exercise caution and not treat this as merely a glorified PR exercise.

macduffy

10-11-2008, 05:19 PM

I wonder if the Canadian Pension Fund might have another look at AIA some time in the next three years?

;)

BRICKS

10-11-2008, 05:37 PM

I wonder if the Canadian Pension Fund might have another look at AIA some time in the next three years?

;)

NO, NO.. but if they did they would have fork out the cash FIRST..

macduffy

10-11-2008, 06:00 PM

NO, NO.. but if they did they would have fork out the cash FIRST..

Now, that would be an odd way to mount a takeover bid.

A first, perhaps?

;)

BRICKS

10-11-2008, 06:34 PM

Now, that would be an odd way to mount a takeover bid.

A first, perhaps?

;)

THEY did not fork out any last time and FAILED so whats new,so what dont you, UNDERSTAND.. this TIME..

macduffy

10-11-2008, 07:57 PM

I guess I should know better than to prolong this "debate" but last time, if I recall correctly, it wasn't a matter of price ( or "cash") foiling the bid, but of govt interference.

;););)

BRICKS

11-11-2008, 11:25 AM

I guess I should know better than to prolong this "debate" but last time, if I recall correctly, it wasn't a matter of price ( or "cash") foiling the bid, but of govt interference.

;););)

WELL mac try and have a happy ONE..

brettdale

16-01-2009, 04:57 PM

Any reason its up seven cents today?

Phaedrus

20-01-2009, 02:58 PM

AIA gave a buy signal 4 days ago when it broke above its confirmed trendline. It had already broken above the OBV trendline (small green arrow) but this was caused by the OBV simply tracking sideways so was of little consequence at that time. You can see that the OBV is now rising,(large green arrow) confirming the price trendlinebreak buy signal.

This entry should be tightly monitored. I have drawn a tentative trendline which could be used along with candlesticks and short-term oscillators to exit this trade should it turn against you.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIA120.gif

brettdale

28-01-2009, 07:39 PM

SP has Been climbing lately, surly it just not because the charts are saying buy?

Phaedrus

28-01-2009, 10:20 PM

SP has been climbing lately, surely it is not just because the charts are saying buy?
Don't confuse cause and effect BD. Charts merely detected the initial change in market sentiment toward AIA, they didn't cause it. I guess, though, that if enough people used TA that could perhaps contribute to some degree of subsequent follow-through.

AIA has always been a particularly well-behaved stock with regard to TA. One old thread is even titled "AIA Chart Perfection".

This chart contains some particularly nice, clear examples of divergence. "The book" (Murphy) states "A divergence between an oscillator and the price action when the oscillator is in an extreme position is usually an important warning".

See how a Bearish divergence (price making higher highs, RSI making lower highs) gave perfectly timed notice of the end of AIA's uptrend well before any trend indicator.

See how recently there have been several Bullish divergences as the price made lower lows but the RSI made higher lows. Bullish divergences are commonly followed by a significant price rise.

Note that the tentative trendline referred to in my previous post has now been confirmed.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIA128.gif

Dr_Who

28-01-2009, 10:58 PM

Super fund still buying pushing up the sp?

BRICKS

29-01-2009, 07:54 AM

Super fund still buying pushing up the sp?

IS that a fact or just a GUESS..

macduffy

29-01-2009, 08:54 AM

IS that a fact or just a GUESS..

Neither.

It looked like a question to me. I've got no idea!

:)

boxing_beaver

03-02-2009, 10:39 AM

has AIA broken it's most recent trendline? if yes is that a bearish sign?

who else saw the A380 come in yesterday? :D

Phaedrus

03-02-2009, 01:29 PM

BB, AIA has broken its short-term trendline and this would be taken as Bearish and a Sell signal by short-term traders (even though it was an unconfirmed trendline) because there was confirmation from oscillators as shown at the top of the chart. In fact, many short-term traders would have sold out at $1.87 on the basis of the Bearish "Shooting Star" candlestick numbered (1). See the long upper shadow? Buyers had carried the price up to $1.92 before strong selling pressure pushed AIA right back down to below the previous days Close negating all the days gains and more. It is not surprising that this was followed by a biggish "down" day, which broke the trendline.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIA23.gif

If you are a longer-term investor, I wouldn't worry about missing all these "Sell" signals. Why not? Take a look at yesterday's candlestick numbered (2). This is a Bullish Dragonfly Doji. Selling pressure pushed the price down to $1.79 before it was met by keen buyers who carried the price back up again. Dragonfly Doji often mark downtrend reversal points. I'm not at all surprised that AIA is up today - $1.83 at the time of posting this.

Dr_Who

12-02-2009, 04:23 PM

What is the analysts expecting for AIA's up coming half yr profit?

Dr_Who

13-02-2009, 01:21 PM

Macqaurie just downgrade its recommendation for AIA. :eek:

ratkin

13-02-2009, 01:36 PM

Since when did you care what brokers have to say?

777

13-02-2009, 02:29 PM

Macqaurie just downgrade its recommendation for AIA. :eek:

That's why it is up 3c.

boxing_beaver

13-02-2009, 07:07 PM

didnt macquarie raise their stake in AIA just today to trigger the SSH notice?

brettdale

19-02-2009, 10:54 AM

2008 Half-year in Review

- Total passenger movements up 2.0 per cent to 6,630,816.

- International passenger movements (including transits and transfers) up 0.5 per cent to
3,758,041. Excluding transits and transfers, international passenger movements down 1.2
per cent to 3,227,505.

- Domestic passenger movements up 4.1 per cent to 2,872,775.

- Aircraft movements up 2.2 per cent to 80,528.

- Total MCTOW up 2.8 per cent to 3,010,909 tonnes.

- Revenue up 6.8 per cent to $184.0 million.

- Operating EBITDA up 2.5 per cent to $138.7 million*

- Non-cash investment property fair value decrease of $41.8 million.

- Profit after tax down 79.4 per cent to $9.8 million.

- Excluding the investment property devaluation, profit after tax was up 8.3 per cent to
$51.6 million.

- Fully imputed interim dividend of 3.75 cents per share to be paid on 27 March 2009.

Interim dividend decreased by 2.00 cents per share compared to the interim dividend last
year. The interim dividend last year was higher to utilise surplus imputation credits
that
would have been lost due to a possible change in ownership.

boxing_beaver

12-03-2009, 05:25 PM

BB, AIA has broken its short-term trendline and this would be taken as Bearish and a Sell signal by short-term traders (even though it was an unconfirmed trendline) because there was confirmation from oscillators as shown at the top of the chart. In fact, many short-term traders would have sold out at $1.87 on the basis of the Bearish "Shooting Star" candlestick numbered (1). See the long upper shadow? Buyers had carried the price up to $1.92 before strong selling pressure pushed AIA right back down to below the previous days Close negating all the days gains and more. It is not surprising that this was followed by a biggish "down" day, which broke the trendline.

If you are a longer-term investor, I wouldn't worry about missing all these "Sell" signals. Why not? Take a look at yesterday's candlestick numbered (2). This is a Bullish Dragonfly Doji. Selling pressure pushed the price down to $1.79 before it was met by keen buyers who carried the price back up again. Dragonfly Doji often mark downtrend reversal points. I'm not at all surprised that AIA is up today - $1.83 at the time of posting this.

update please Phaedrus? Thx in advance :)

Phaedrus

12-03-2009, 09:32 PM

This chart is a little cluttered, BB, because I have tried to combine line and candlestick plots to show how the signals derived from each coincide nicely.

A "Bearish Engulfing Pattern" occurs when selling pressure overwhelms buying force as reflected by a long black body engulfing a small white body after an uptrend.

You can see that the 6 sell signals shown here triggered over a fairly narrow price range, with 3 of them firing on the same day. The downtrend that ensued is still in place and there is no hint of any buy signals as yet.

The Dragonfly Doji as previously mentioned was followed by a nice little uptrend just as it was supposed to be. Neat eh?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AIA312.gif

sharer

16-03-2009, 02:44 PM

Thanks for the charts, education and dedication on the threads Phaedrus, ... Keep up the great work, its much appreciated by many.

AA

My thanks as well Phaedrus. Your commentaries are the main reason I try to login briefly every day. I'm learning a lot also from the contributions of MacDunc, Snoopy, Shasta & many others on my personal list of favourites, including a few of those sceptics who sometimes dare to challenge the cool logic of your posts. My own ignorance precludes piping up more often, so I hope its OK just to support the comments just made by Absolute-Advance and Yankiwi.

brettdale

18-03-2009, 06:03 PM

I read that Auckland airport paid a dividend to share holders on Monday march 16th, it hasn't shown up in my bank account yet? Does it take a few days?

OldRider

18-03-2009, 06:11 PM

I haven't checked but my system has 27 March entered as payment date, so a few days to wait yet if correct.

Year of the Tiger

18-03-2009, 06:28 PM

I read that Auckland airport paid a dividend to share holders on Monday march 16th, it hasn't shown up in my bank account yet? Does it take a few days?

Monday was the Ex date, so still a bit of a wait yet.

YOTT

ratkin

16-04-2009, 07:15 PM

Canadian pension funds prowling around aussie infrastructure stocks , maybe back for another bite at AIA ?

The Doctor

17-04-2009, 07:24 AM

nice try!..'Rampkin'!

brettdale

17-04-2009, 08:18 AM

Canadian pension funds prowling around aussie infrastructure stocks , maybe back for another bite at AIA ?

LOL!

They are not going to waste their time again.

Dr_Who

17-04-2009, 09:30 AM

Once bitten twice shy.

Dont think the Canadians want anything to do with NZ. lol

macduffy

17-04-2009, 10:18 AM

Canadian pension funds prowling around aussie infrastructure stocks , maybe back for another bite at AIA ?

They will always be looking for opportunities in that sector, having a continuing cash inflow and a need to find homes for it, regardless of the state of the markets.
It doesn't mean that they will necessarily come back to AIA but they will have noted the change of govt since their "unfortunate" experience.

BRICKS

17-04-2009, 11:11 AM

They will always be looking for opportunities in that sector, having a continuing cash inflow and a need to find homes for it, regardless of the state of the markets.
It doesn't mean that they will necessarily come back to AIA but they will have noted the change of govt since their "infortunate" experience.

ALL assets are up for sale at the right price but the right price has yet to be offered
change of GOV means nothing its money that TALKS..

macduffy

17-04-2009, 12:09 PM

ALL assets are up for sale at the right price but the right price has yet to be offered
change of GOV means nothing its money that TALKS..

There's lot of AIA shareholders who wouldn't agree with that. Money was talking pretty loud in 2007 but govt of the day only needed to whisper to can the deal.
Or have you forgotten?

:rolleyes:

BRICKS

17-04-2009, 12:49 PM

[QUOTE=macduffy;251437]There's lot of AIA shareholders who wouldn't agree with that. Money was talking pretty loud in 2007 but govt of the day only needed to whisper to can the deal.
Or have you forgotten.

THE last attempt was a flop a little money that on the surface mite have looked good
but the real bit was a holding company with interest payments and they run off with
the company on the CHEEP..

macduffy

17-04-2009, 02:45 PM

At the risk of prolonging what is a fairly pointless discussion, I'll just "make the point" that the AIA shareholders didn't get the chance to decide for themselves whether or not the offer was adequate.

BRICKS

17-04-2009, 03:27 PM

The Doctor

20-04-2009, 10:53 AM

still ott, in these troubled times...sp heading south imo.

BRICKS

20-04-2009, 10:59 AM

still ott, in these troubled times...sp heading south imo.

NOT right on the bottom , yet come below if it happens $1.60 and BRICKS
will be BUYING again you have to get ready for the GOOD times..

Dr_Who

11-05-2009, 10:22 AM

Anyone know the dividend for AIA?

Thanks

Dr_Who

21-05-2009, 09:04 AM

AIA sp is very low compare to all the other stocks.

Maybe an opportunity to accumulate some for the long term portfolio?

If there was another go at AIA, I am sure the national govt would say YES.

777

21-05-2009, 10:36 AM

May be your answer is here.

From Stuff.co.nz

Auckland Airport cautions market about revenue forecast
NEW 10:00AM Thursday May 21, 2009
Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIAL) is cautioning about the market consensus of about $104 million for the retail component of its revenue for the 2010 financial year.

The company said today it believed a more likely retail revenue forecast was in the range $90m to $93m.

It appeared that the market was not sufficiently allowing for some factors, Auckland Airport said.

Those included the impact of the reversion to a dual operator duty free model which sacrificed the benefits in terms of scale, penetration and range associated with the single operator model and required the second operator to establish its market position.

Other factors were declining international passenger volumes and reduced consumer spending resulting from the global downturn, and disruption due to construction in the departures area.

The company said earnings guidance provided for the 2009 financial year was unchanged.

777

21-05-2009, 10:37 AM

And down 9 cents this morning.

Dr_Who

21-05-2009, 10:43 AM

Good opportunity to buy some for the long term portfolio.

I bought some this morning at $1.58. :)

It was only less than 1 year that someone wanted to T/O AIA at over $3.40. So it is cheap at $1.58, esp with over 5% div yield.

Dr_Who

22-05-2009, 10:56 AM

AIA surprisingly strong on a weak market. :)

Hey Yankiwi, I forgot the thank you for the div info. Cheers mate.

Dr_Who

02-06-2009, 08:21 AM

Hey Yank, dont worry about AIA. Just put it away. This is a cheap long term stock with potential T/O target and this time round National will say YES. The div you get is better than money in the bank.

winner69

06-07-2009, 09:16 PM

Shareprice hits 6 year low according to the paper

Nothing on the chart seems to give a reason for buying AIA since it dipped below $3 many moons ago.

Agree with bricks though that at the right time AIA will be a good stock to hold but maybe even cheaper in a month or so

David67

15-07-2009, 07:39 PM

Dr_Who

15-07-2009, 07:44 PM

The only I can think of is a large seller out there still selling. Maybe IFT is a potential seller of AIA also?

I am tempted to buy more, but will wait for it to bottom out first.

macduffy

15-07-2009, 07:54 PM

I think it's just that the downturn in tourism has taken the gloss off AIA for the present. Plus a bit of a dampener from the H1N1 flu business.

I'm happy holding AIA, one of the few NZX stocks that I can say that about just now.

PartTimeTrader

15-07-2009, 08:14 PM

I am curious about this too. I have bought quite a large holding of AIA during these past few months and traded a few short term spikes but yet the medium term keeps trending down.

It's a monopoly airport that reported pretty good earnings (if you take away the writedown, it's operating profit actually increased from last year).
The current price is basically book value.

I've made a lot of money past year trading during the recession but AIA is my biggest loser. I have like a 10k unrealised loss on this company. I fail to understand why there seems to be so little buyer interest in this company compared with other stocks and there seems to always be someone dumping large volumes of AIA shares.

forest

15-07-2009, 08:26 PM

Any more recent news regarding AIA that I perhaps should be aware of? I note that relative to the NZX 50, AIA's share price has under performed the index by about 10% over the last 3 months. Can't seem to note anything in the balance sheet nor the announcement which would hint at why the share price appears to be continuing a medium term downtrend. Cheers. David67

Not so much resent news but I would have thought that there is potential for AIA Share Price to slide down further. AIA has a trailing P/E according DB of 24 and according brokers forcast there is not likely much growth in earnings. Just on those 2 fundamentals you would have to say that the present AIA share price is fairly high, and its possible that the future dividents wont be as high as the past.

winner69

15-07-2009, 08:39 PM

From Jenny Ruth this morning article this morning forecast profit of $97m puts it on a forward PE of about 19 which is quite high. Relative to NTA probably lumbered to a certain extent with the property company tag which are tending to trade at a discount to NTA these days

Chart hardly inspiring to put heaps in yet though

Auckland International Airport's decision to defer scheduled increases in its aeronautical charges will hit earnings in 2010, says ABN Amro Craigs analyst Geoff Zame.

The airports international and domestic landing fees had been due to increase 2.5% from July 1. Instead, the airport is discounting international landing fees by about 5% and holding domestic landing fees to recognise "the current challenging economic conditions in the aviation industry." The airport will review its pricing in six months time.

Zame says he has downgraded his forecast earnings per share for 2010 by 3% to reflect these changes. "We had assumed the scheduled 2.5% increase in our forecasts. We now assume (these) pricing revisions apply for the whole of full-year 2010, albeit they are arguably for the first-half of 2010 only," he says.

His forecast airfield revenue for 2010 falls by $4.3 million, or 5.9%, to $69 million and he is leaving all other assumptions constant, assuming no subsequent catch-up but rather a reversion to a 2.5% increase on a lower base from 2011.

Zame is now forecasting a $97.2 million net profit for 2010, down from his forecast $104.2 million net profit for the year ended June this year. The airport will report its 2009 results on August 28.

BROKER CALL: ABN Amro Craigs rate Auckland International Airport (NZX: AIA ) as a BUY

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/523ddf5d/daily-sharechat-auckland-international-airport.html

macduffy

16-07-2009, 08:34 AM

PartTimeTrader

16-07-2009, 09:47 AM

Here's hoping we're right ;)

Because it seems the market thinks otherwise right now.

minimoke

23-07-2009, 03:59 PM

Governement is looking at reviewing the "Strategic Asset Test" as part of its review of overseas investment. We could perhaps see a loosening up of the rules (more of a "National Interest" focus" perhaps allowing another sale process.

BRICKS

23-07-2009, 04:32 PM

Besides undoing the Labour knot and make it an open market,, They are going to get a 260 room hotel that will be nice but NO money to be made for years but they will have an hotel
so all we need now is a TAKEOVER..

ratkin

24-07-2009, 10:25 AM

Im still angry with labour over the takeover fiasco

Dr_Who

24-07-2009, 10:28 AM

We're rolling today - Up 14 (8.5%) in the first 5 minutes today :D

Edit - 16 (9.8%) :D :D :D

Told you to be patient and you will be rewarded. :)

minimoke

24-07-2009, 10:31 AM

We're rolling today - Up 14 (8.5%) in the first 5 minutes today :D

Edit - 16 (9.8%) :D :D :D
Hopefully you bought late yesterday afternoon!. Imagine how much the price would rise if they had decided not to build a hotel - that I reckon is not a good move.

(And like Ratkin still remebering Labours actions!)

BRICKS

24-07-2009, 10:36 AM

Told you to be patient and you will be rewarded. :)

This is just a splash in the pan but helps its the people that read this morning paper
and said "Look Dear" someone untied the knot don't you think we should get SOME..

"YES DEAR"............

PartTimeTrader

24-07-2009, 10:56 AM

COLIN

24-07-2009, 03:11 PM

Wish I didn't sell 50% off around the 155-162 mark as I picked up quite alot at 1.50-1.52

Still made a decent gain but if only I had held on to my full 100k shares :(

I've sold off the majority of my holdings today with an intention to rebuy. If this is the beginning of the full recovery in equities, then I will regret what I've done today lol.

PTT: You need to take a course of tuition from our resident guru Phaedrus. Suggest you clock into his numerous postings - it will be to your great benefit. Meantime, take careful note of this: BUY INTO STRENGTH, SELL INTO WEAKNESS.

PartTimeTrader

24-07-2009, 03:57 PM

Yes, but is this really strength? This is not too different from what happened back in May. A few tidbits of good news in a market hungry for "green shoots" and the shares rocketed up. Then a little bad news sent the market crashing back down again.

A lot of technical analysis posted here seem a bit convenient. It's easy to spot patterns in hindsight.

I'm not saying I don't believe it has its uses. I use a mix of fundamental & technical analysis to make my decisions but at the end of the day it's hard to prove whether you were "right" or "lucky" unless you've been doing it for a long time or have done a huge volume of trades.

At this stage, fundamentally I believe there is still a long way up to go. But I've fallen to the temptation of short term trading right now and I think theres a fairly good chance we will see another dip in equities as soon as some news comes out which puts doubts into investors minds.

Snoopy

24-07-2009, 03:58 PM

Hopefully you bought late yesterday afternoon!. Imagine how much the price would rise if they had decided not to build a hotel - that I reckon is not a good move.

(And like Ratkin still remembering Labours actions!)

I got the impression that AIA are the landlords to the proposed new Novotel hotel Minimoke. That means they will be banking the rent cheques without having to worry about the ups and downs of hotel management. Your post Minimoke does highlight to everyone where IMO the future of AIA will be in the next few years though. AIA are landlords. And like all consumer powered landlords, I think they are going to find themselves 'overrented' over the next few years.

Whatever it says in the rental agreements, increases in rent can ultimately only be paid for by an increase in foot traffic or an increase in dollars spent per passenger on the way through. If those things aren't happening then ultimately a business model based on that premise is doomed. Ratchet rental clauses will only delay the inevitable.

Air New Zealand has recently started serving up meals, rather than snacks, again on some domestic flights. How is that going to translate to more money being spent at the Auckland Airport terminal food courts? Also there are more spare seats on domestic flights these days which ultimately must mean less flights, and less income for AIA. International flights are already 'officially' in decline and Airport international charges are for the first time in memory being reduced to 'meet the market'.

AIA is in quite a different market now, compared to when there was a bid on the table at around $3 last year. Back then we had an outlook of increasing flights, increasing yields and a gaggle of bidders in the background pushing that potential airport bid price higher. Selectively shareholders from those days neglect to mention that the bid which almost made it to the table was only a partial bid anyway. So the memory of that bid was rather better than the reality.

Don't get me wrong, I think AIA is an excellent company, probably one of the five best managed companies on the NZX. But AIA is also priced by the market accordingly. And that IMO, makes it a lousy investment prospect.

Yes if there is a takeover offer, the price will go up from here. But you can say the same about *every* listed share. AIA currently trades on a PE of 20+ IIRC. This is expensive, very expensive, and will require a lot of profit growth to justify this kind of pricing at a fundamental level. With real profits actually forecast to decline, I reckon the fair value price of AIA is actually around $1.30 from an operational perspective, and there is downside risk from there too.

As for the upside potential well, it is hard to see the Saudi's coming back after being rebuffed in public as unsuitable shareholder candidates. Any future Canadian pension fund deal on even close to parity with the last deal will have to be based on the idea of jacking up AIA company debt and allowing cashflow to fund the higher interest bill. I doubt if any potential supporting banks would allow such a deal these days. So just where is the competition going to come from to bid the share price higher? Is there a realistic prospect for any bid of *any* sort to arise in 2009/2010?

When I read this thread, I read the story of a whole lot of rear vision mirror investors. The rear visioners think that because the sharemarket has had a good quarter the credit crunch effectively never happened and we can just go back to how it was before.

Furthermore that with one pronouncement PM John Key, on simplifying the overseas investment rules, AIA is suddenly 'really' worth $3 again. My message to such investors is 'get real'. It wouldn't surprise me to see AIA as the worst performing share of all in the NZX10 over the next twelve months. It is a real worry to me, as a reflection of the investment IQ of this forum, that so many here think that AIA is a share with so much potential. Investors in AIA today are not going to lose all of their capital, I grant you. But I would be equally surprised if they outperformed the index. AIA at anywhere near today's price levels is IMO one to avoid for investment purposes.

SNOOPY

discl: do not hold AIA

minimoke

24-07-2009, 04:07 PM

I got the impression that AIA are the landlords to the proposed new Novotel hotel Minimoke.
They will have a "minority" interst (which is unspecified), as well as being the landlord from what I can tell.

sharer

24-07-2009, 04:57 PM

They will have a "minority" interst (which is unspecified), as well as being the landlord from what I can tell.

In today's DomPost it was reported AIA will own 10%, Accor 20%, & Tainui Holdings 70%
(& also noting AIA have the ground lease income as well).

Dr_Who

24-07-2009, 05:26 PM

The councils should start buying some AIA shares at these levels.

sharer

24-07-2009, 06:11 PM

The councils should start buying some AIA shares at these levels.

Don't they already own quite a lot? e.g. RNZ news today quoted a mayor (Manukau i think) & mentioned their share, re question of protecting it against whatever is planned for local assets when SuperAkld takes over.

Jim

24-07-2009, 06:45 PM

AIA is a monopoly airport and it deserve a premium. I always top up my holding when it is on a dip and I have NO exit strategy.

Snoopy

24-07-2009, 08:29 PM

AIA is a monopoly airport and it deserve a premium.

AIA might not be quite the monopoly international gateway you think it is Jim. Did you know that Christchurch is on a fast track plan to demolish their entire airport and rebuild it again, all within the next couple of years? The new control tower is already up, as is the new multistory parking building.

If you have been to Christchurch before and noted in particular that the international terminal was already of a good standard and is only around five years old you would be right. However, the fact that it is earmarked for demolition already should show you that we here in Christchurch mean business.

There will be no more marching between domestic and international terminals down here (or god forbid going by shuttle bus in some centres), because all facilities will be centrally located. This new centralised structure will allow CIA to charge relatively lower fees to the airlines while maintaining or even increasing profit margins.

AIA will continue to be a respectable domestic hub, to be sure. But from 2012, AIA's days as a sizeable international gateway will be over, bar the odd flight across the tasman. They just won't be able to compete. The current rather extravagant international terminal in Auckland is, fortunately for you shareholders, of sufficient height to be able to store 747s inside of it. So with cosmetic demolition of the interior, there will be enough space to mothball Air New Zealand's by then ageing gas guzzling 747s inside, giving the hapless AIA shareholder a token income on that overbuilt space.

AIA will still 'deserve a premium' even in it's reduced form, but I put it to you that AIA already has a premium now. And today's premium will have to be pricked.

I always top up my holding when it is on a dip and I have NO exit strategy.

Grabbing food out of the food trolleys as they pass down the aisle just because your own plate is getting low is, to my mind, unnecessarily uncouth behaviour. I am sorry if your food addiction has made you so large that you can no longer move in your seat. But isn't claiming that you have 'no exit strategy' a little defeatest? Could they not just sit you down the back near where the food supplies are forklifted in. Then in the event of an emergency simply roll you out of the XL sized cabin door at the back ;-P?

SNOOPY

P.S. The information that I gave you on what is happening at Christchurch Airport was no joke!

bung5

27-07-2009, 02:32 PM

AIA will continue to be a respectable domestic hub, to be sure. But from 2012, AIA's days as a sizeable international gateway will be over, bar the odd flight across the tasman. They just won't be able to compete. The current rather extravagant international terminal in Auckland is, fortunately for you shareholders, of sufficient height to be able to store 747s inside of it. So with cosmetic demolition of the interior, there will be enough space to mothball Air New Zealand's by then ageing gas guzzling 747s inside, giving the hapless AIA shareholder a token income on that overbuilt space.

Snoopy you seem to forget that over 75% of the population is in the north island and 1/3 of population is in close proximity to Auckland and South Auckland / Manukau which is the fastest growing City in the country.
These people will never use Christchurch Aiport.

AIA owns truck loads of empty land that is prime property yet to be developed and leased out.

Oh yeah isnt AIA in Manukau?

Jaa

27-07-2009, 06:25 PM

Snoopy you seem to forget that over 75% of the population is in the north island and 1/3 of population is in close proximity to Auckland and South Auckland / Manukau which is the fastest growing City in the country.
These people will never use Christchurch Aiport.

Auckland may be close to most of the NZ population but most of the inbound tourists want to go to the South Island and definitely not Auckland. Call it 50/50.

Wellington also has lofty international ambitions to accept direct flights from Asia. Lastly every regional centre in the country wants Trans-Tasman flights.

For now Auckland is benefiting from Air NZ consolidating on Auckland away from Hamilton and Palmerston North. It is also benefiting from what will likely be temporary three way competition between Air NZ, Pacific Blue and JetStar.

However Air NZ has cut the number and guage (plane size) of its flights drastically in the last year, as have other airlines. From the June stats:

"In June Air New Zealand carried 1.1m passengers, down 5.5% on the same month last year"
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/AIR/announcements/2670454/Air-NZ-Monthly-Investor-Update-June-Op-Stats

So there you have it, roughly 5% less people are using AIA this year compared to last.

In the South, Air NZ is adding significant international capacity into Queenstown and away from Dunedin and perhaps Christchurch.

You win some, you lose some, but overall these are hard times to be in the airport business.

ratkin

27-07-2009, 06:33 PM

I cant agree with most of this . The big population base will always insure its NZs premier airport.

I would of thought the temporary drop in tourist numbers has provided a great opportunity to buy a quality asset at a cheap price.

Of course if you prefer to buy something when everything appears perfect then good luck to you

macduffy

27-07-2009, 06:41 PM

I'm with ratkin on this.

AIA isn't cheap, never has been but it's one of the bluest of blue chips on the NZ. Can't imagine a longterm NZ portfolio without it but that's just IMO.

;)

bung5

28-07-2009, 01:55 PM

Agree. Wellington has no plans to extend runway.
AIA bulk land banking will provide good long term growth opportunity

Jaa

28-07-2009, 02:14 PM

Agree. Wellington has no plans to extend runway.

Obivously you don't live in Wellington Bung5:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/photos/slideshows/wellington-airport-expansion

http://www.wellington-airport.co.nz/html/business/draft-2030-master-plan/wellington-airport-commits-450m-to-regional-growth.html

If AIA is just a property company, it's share price is very highly priced compared to other property shares.

bung5

28-07-2009, 02:42 PM

Obivously you don't live in Wellington Bung5:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/photos/slideshows/wellington-airport-expansion

http://www.wellington-airport.co.nz/html/business/draft-2030-master-plan/wellington-airport-commits-450m-to-regional-growth.html

If AIA is just a property company, it's share price is very highly priced compared to other property shares.

Ill eat my words on that one.

minimoke

28-07-2009, 02:52 PM

Obivously you don't live in Wellington Bung5:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/photos/slideshows/wellington-airport-expansion

http://www.wellington-airport.co.nz/html/business/draft-2030-master-plan/wellington-airport-commits-450m-to-regional-growth.html

From the text link: "The draft Master Plan does not include extending the runway"

Placebo

28-07-2009, 03:37 PM

From the text link: "The draft Master Plan does not include extending the runway"

Wellington will never be more than a domestic hub with short-haul international flights (transTasman and Pacific). It doesn't have the population to support longer haul flights. Not to mention the impossibility of fully-laden long haul airliners getting off the ground on its 1250m-long runway. Wellington airport is banking on the imminent arrival of the 787 - but Boeing keeps delaying that project. Even if it does finally arrive, there is unlikely to be demand for flights direct to Asia.

Good luck to Christchurch. Are they not aware people now fly direct into Queenstown?

AIA has always been a land bank with an airport and retail on top of it. This is already factored into its SP. I think you guys are optimistic to say it is a `growth' stock. It is largely a utility with a solid cashflow, and near-enough monopoly status. The market already knows about the landbank and is costing this into the price. Where, then is the `growth'?

This is, and always has been, a solid defensive stock, nothing more.