Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[arc]

Hoping it does not do a CNU and turn into a 10 year hold just to get back to last months level....
I agree with you on the gateway concept. Its both a feature and a resource.
We need a Japanese style Mag-Lev train circling the north island, catch the tourist stops along the way. Start/stop at the airport. 3 trains each 1/3 of the way round, one direction, auto/GPS location synchronisation, 24 *7.

[percy]

Hoping it does not do a CNU and turn into a 10 year hold just to get back to last months level....
I agree with you on the gateway concept. Its both a feature and a resource.
We need a Japanese style Mag-Lev train circling the north island, catch the tourist stops along the way. Start/stop at the airport. 3 trains each 1/3 of the way round, one direction, auto/GPS location synchronisation, 24 *7.

The long term trend is up.For the trend to be confirmed as broken the share price needs to fall lower than the 200 day moving average,which is on $3.67 at present.Should it go lower than $3.67, and not bounce back up within a couple of weeks,then I would sell the shares I have left.
CNU had a "black Swann" [nasty] event that caused the sp to fall out of bed.Famous last words,but I don't see any such event in AIA"s out look.

[nextbigthing]

The long term trend is up.For the trend to be confirmed as broken the share price needs to fall lower than the 200 day moving average,which is on $3.67 at present.Should it go lower than $3.67, and not bounce back up within a couple of weeks,then I would sell the shares I have left.
CNU had a "black Swann" [nasty] event that caused the sp to fall out of bed.Famous last words,but I don't see any such event in AIA"s out look.

I find this interesting Percy. AIA is allowed to maintain its monopoly earning big $$$ yet CNU gets hammered by the concon. What's the difference? Tourists and kiwis are fitting the bill for AIA rates versus just kiwis for CNU?

[percy]

I find this interesting Percy. AIA is allowed to maintain its monopoly earning big $$$ yet CNU gets hammered by the concon. What's the difference? Tourists and kiwis are fitting the bill for AIA rates versus just kiwis for CNU?

I have no idea.!
Yet a "black Swann" event did cause CNU sp to fall.
Whether or not it happens to AIA I can not predict.I can only state that I think it is unlikely in my opinon.

[winner69]

The long term trend is up.For the trend to be confirmed as broken the share price needs to fall lower than the 200 day moving average,which is on $3.67 at present.Should it go lower than $3.67, and not bounce back up within a couple of weeks,then I would sell the shares I have left.
CNU had a "black Swann" [nasty] event that caused the sp to fall out of bed.Famous last words,but I don't see any such event in AIA"s out look.

If you have to sell below 367 (because it aint bounced up) I reckon it will fall to 250 as world markets collapse

Then would be time to load up again eh Percy, just like in 2009

Look at the chart from last century (current little drop is a blip) ..... nice and steady increases except for the beating it took between 2008/09 like all stocks

If you worried arc methinks you are thinking like a short term trader

[Harvey Specter]

I find this interesting Percy. AIA is allowed to maintain its monopoly earning big $$$ yet CNU gets hammered by the concon. What's the difference? Tourists and kiwis are fitting the bill for AIA rates versus just kiwis for CNU?leas of its earnings are regulated than CNU. Just the landing fees. If you have ever paid parking charges (or taxi or retail lease payments) you know they are not regulated.

[percy]

If you have to sell below 367 (because it aint bounced up) I reckon it will fall to 250 as world markets collapse

Then would be time to load up again eh Percy, just like in 2009

Look at the chart from last century (current little drop is a blip) ..... nice and steady increases except for the beating it took between 2008/09 like all stocks

If you worried arc methinks you are thinking like a short term trader

Totally agree with you.My wonderful Heartland dividends would be well spent loading up on AIA at $2.50.....

[arc]

According to Australia's "Motley Fool"
Here’s why you might want to take a second look at Auckland International Airport Ltd
http://www.fool.com.au/2014/08/11/heres-why-you-might-want-to-take-a-second-look-at-auckland-international-airport-ltd/

[arc]

More positive news for AIR

http://www.fool.com.au/2014/09/10/should-you-buy-auckland-international-airport-ltd/

[moimoi]

@ $4.31. Breakout?

[macduffy]

Solid result from AIA. Nobody interested?

[percy]

Solid result from AIA. Nobody interested?

Always interested.
We are getting used to their solid results ...!!!
And very much enjoying them ..!!!!

[In4a$]

Solid result from AIA. Nobody interested?
Boring stuff, just one good result after another. Sooooooo happy though, better than having money in the bank.
Disc: Long time holder

[samdaman]

This bumps my valuation up to $4.77 approximately. Just based off pe multiples

[macduffy]

Yes, gotta be the best property company on the NZX!

:)

[winner69]

All time high today

[robbo24]

All time high today

yes its good

[clip]

Been on my radar for a long time now, kicking myself I didn't buy a year or two ago. What are people's thoughts on this, still worth buying dips or is it looking at reaching fair value/maximum upside? Great landbank, great retail, no big news/expectations of visitor reductions to NZ that I know of

[winner69]

[QUOTE=clip;575404]Been on my radar for a long time now, kicking myself I didn't buy a year or two ago. What are people's thoughts on this, still worth buying dips or is it looking at reaching fair value/maximum upside? Great landbank, great retail, no big news/expectations of visitor reductions to NZ that I know of [\QUOTE]

Isn't that last sentence the compelling reason to buy.

Thats been the story for years. AIA will always appear to be 'expensive'

Go on ......just buy, no point looking in the shop window,
.

[percy]

Totally agree.Sometimes you just have to hit the buy button.!!!

[Harvey Specter]

I got out to early unfortunately. Think I will wait to see if China pops as that would be a good time to reenter.

[robbo24]

I got out to early unfortunately. Think I will wait to see if China pops as that would be a good time to reenter.

See you in 2030 :D

[Harvey Specter]

See you in 2030 :DDidn't mean 'pop' pop, just short term jitters. Their sharemarket is up 180% this year. Something has to happen and the dooms dayers will cause a short term buying opportunity.

[winner69]

Clip ---- you said a lot good things going for AIA, but you didn't mention they make out of parking.

[clip]

Clip ---- you said a lot good things going for AIA, but you didn't mention they make out of parking.

To be honest winner I hadn't even thought about that. The reason I had been interested in AIA in the past is a family friend manages retail spaces such as malls, sylvia park etc and used to work managing the retail shops/spaces in AIA, he worked there a few years ago and always spoke positively about the space/it always to be very stable

[jetski1999]

they have put in roads etc for more warehousing. freight forwarders are always building bigger and bigger warehouses as they grow and AIA has the only land big enough for them by the airport and they need to be by the airport for a variety of reasons. next time you are in the area go down landing drive and you will see 4 or 5 warehouses under construction.

[macduffy]

To be honest winner I hadn't even thought about that. The reason I had been interested in AIA in the past is a family friend manages retail spaces such as malls, sylvia park etc and used to work managing the retail shops/spaces in AIA, he worked there a few years ago and always spoke positively about the space/it always to be very stable

And the beauty of it is that, unlike Sylvia Park, etc, AIA gets to charge for its parking while customers shop!

Disc: A longterm part of my portfolio.

[In4a$]

And the beauty of it is that, unlike Sylvia Park, etc, AIA gets to charge for its parking while customers shop!

Disc: A longterm part of my portfolio.
And boy do they charge for parking. Out their yesterday to collect family from flight, $9 parking for 45mins. But I enjoy getting the dividends so cant complain I guess.
Disc: Long time holder

[winner69]

And boy do they charge for parking. Out their yesterday to collect family from flight, $9 parking for 45mins. But I enjoy getting the dividends so cant complain I guess.
Disc: Long time holder

Parking income $43m last year ---- landing fees $87m

Good little lurk that parking eh

[jetski1999]

AIAL Coca Cola Amatil NZ to build manufacturing facility11:40am, 16 Jun 2015 | GENERALMedia Release | 16 June 2015
Coca–Cola Amatil New Zealand to build manufacturing facility at Auckland Airport’s Business Park
Coca–Cola Amatil New Zealand (CCANZ), the company that makes and sells Coca–Cola drinks and other leading beverages in New Zealand, is establishing a manufacturing operation at The Landing Business Park at Auckland Airport
The move will see Auckland Airport develop a purpose-built, high-tech, 12,000sqm warehouse to accommodate an addition to CCANZ’s manufacturing footprint.
Chris Litchfield, Managing Director of CCANZ, says the company is excited to partner with Auckland Airport on the development of this new facility.
“Auckland Airport has the ability to deliver a product which meets our specific requirements. We need to consolidate a number of operations into one, meaning that we require a location that ticks all the boxes in terms of connectivity, security and accessible amenities,” says Mr Litchfield.
“We also value the investment that Auckland Airport has outlaid to develop the area into a world-class business park. CCANZ is committed to producing the best quality beverages and this new facility at Auckland Airport will enable us to continue to achieve this and complements our existing manufacturing operations. ”
Mark Thomson, Auckland Airport’s general manager property, says, “The move by CCANZ to Auckland Airport highlights the quality of our real estate products and our ability to tailor solutions to unique customer requirements.”
“We are focused on creating a business environment that caters to a wide range of users. Our extensive land-holdings allow Auckland Airport to tailor bespoke solutions, not only for traditional logistics activities but also for technology users and selected manufacturers, such as CCANZ,” continues Mr Thomson.
“What remains constant in all of our developments is our emphasis on creating quality buildings within a comprehensively planned and world-class environment, as well as providing outstanding amenity for our customers and their staff.”
“CCANZ is one of the largest bottlers of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages in the Asia-Pacific with a portfolio that consists of several leading household brands. We are thrilled that CCANZ has entrusted Auckland Airport as its property partner,” finishes Mr Thomson.

[IAK]

Airport's revenue expected to take a hit.

"Transport analyst at Forsyth Barr Andy Bowley said given the Commission's past approach to what it considers is a fair rate of return, he expected Auckland Airport's profit growth to slow over the next five years.
Mr Bowley estimated the changes could result in Auckland Airport's regulatory earnings falling from 46 percent to 39 percent of its gross profit.
Auckland Airport will reset its prices in 2017."

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/276501/airport's-revenue-expected-to-take-hit

[robbo24]

Airport's revenue expected to take a hit.

"Transport analyst at Forsyth Barr Andy Bowley said given the Commission's past approach to what it considers is a fair rate of return, he expected Auckland Airport's profit growth to slow over the next five years.
Mr Bowley estimated the changes could result in Auckland Airport's regulatory earnings falling from 46 percent to 39 percent of its gross profit.
Auckland Airport will reset its prices in 2017."

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/276501/airport's-revenue-expected-to-take-hit

I'm so sick of that damn Communism Commission poking its nose into everyone's business.

I wish they'd spend more time protecting the little guy on the street from imitation brand name goods websites and perpetual gym memberships and the likes.

Do some real work to protect the community instead of ruining the market (a la Chorus).

:D

[Harvey Specter]

Is AIA now the largest company on the NZX? it use to be FBU didn't it with XRO getting to number 2 at one point. When did AIA take the top spot? Or is the info I am looking at on Google wrong?

[robbo24]

Is AIA now the largest company on the NZX? it use to be FBU didn't it with XRO getting to number 2 at one point. When did AIA take the top spot? Or is the info I am looking at on Google wrong?

Very astute of you Harvey.

AIA followed by FBU followed by SPK.

I have held AIA since IPO so it's good to see :D

[Bjauck]

Very astute of you Harvey.

AIA followed by FBU followed by SPK.

I have held AIA since IPO so it's good to see :D
Likewise....those Canadians knew a good company when they saw it....lucky for us they did not get it!

[macduffy]

"The gateway to the land of the long white cloud"

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/27622?utm_source=Trending+on+Livewire+%22The+Morni ng+Wire%22&utm_campaign=7cfa76f743-Trending+on+Livewire&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1911ffeed5-7cfa76f743-82636925&mc_cid=7cfa76f743&mc_eid=9f402457b0

[kyanar]

22c increase today to 5.15. An impressive gain!

[robbo24]

22c increase today to 5.15. An impressive gain!

Indeed that's a hell of a bullish candle :D

[Cricketfan]

22c increase today to 5.15. An impressive gain!

It's gone above $5 a few times recently but then goes back down. Hope it stays above this time.

[robbo24]

It's gone above $5 a few times recently but then goes back down. Hope it stays above this time.

Higher high and higher low. What more can you want? :D

[macduffy]

The good times keep rolling for AIA.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11484998

I hold.

[kiora]

And the Auckland Council is looking at selling ! Daaa

[arc]

AIA Directors leaving..?

Depending how far it drops, might be a chance to stock up at the bottom




Auckland Airport has announced today the departure of two long-serving


members of the company's Leadership Team.





Adrian Littlewood, Auckland Airport's Chief Executive, says, "Following a


review of our company's direction and strategy, including executive


remuneration, our Chief Financial Officer, Simon Robertson, and our General


Manager of Corporate Affairs and Company Secretary, Charles Spillane, have


decided to leave Auckland Airport today after many years of valuable


service."

[arc]

Does anyone here have ideas on AIA's continued drop... Do you think the Chinese devalue will take it further, and perhaps longer

[arc]

AIA revalues their land/buildings/plant/equipment etc, expecting it to be up by $109M
Same for their Investment Property, up by $57M

[kiora]

Does anyone here have ideas on AIA's continued drop... Do you think the Chinese devalue will take it further, and perhaps longer

Why worry.It will still be worth a substantial lot more in 5,10,20 years time . There is a lesson here
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11497291

[Jim]

Does anyone here have ideas on AIA's continued drop... Do you think the Chinese devalue will take it further, and perhaps longer

AIA price is slowly dropping to bargain level, time to accumulate for the long haul or wait for it to settle down

[In4a$]

AIA price is slowly dropping to bargain level, time to accumulate for the long haul or wait for it to settle down
I agree, just waiting for things to settle down then good oppurtunity to accumulate.

[vin]

May get on board.. Definitely looking like some good buying opportunity

[nextbigthing]

Would anybody who loves and holds this stock care to share your valuation with me? Not so I can pick holes at it, so I can work out how people are valuing it. I love the fact it's a monopoly with a strong moat however IMHO it's still WAAYYYY overvalued, it has a terrible earnings yield and that's not about to change any time soon! However the market seems to consistently value it very highly.

Please explain. NBT

[Arbroath]

Hi NBT

AIA is a great monopoly business but it is not worth any price. People who bought it up $5.50 will take about 30 years to get their investment back. Morningstar who value businesses in a fundamental way put a $3.90 valuation on them.

Generally AIA will trade above most fundamental valuations due to the monopoly characteristics and NZ being small with limited high quality opportunities. I'd be happy to hold at $4.00 e.g. around 25 x underlying earnings (ignoring property revaluations). I'll wait until it makes sense on valuation and if it doesn't get there then I won't own it.

[percy]

Would anybody who loves and holds this stock care to share your valuation with me? Not so I can pick holes at it, so I can work out how people are valuing it. I love the fact it's a monopoly with a strong moat however IMHO it's still WAAYYYY overvalued, it has a terrible earnings yield and that's not about to change any time soon! However the market seems to consistently value it very highly.

Please explain. NBT

Well I don't know whether this is any help,but yesterday I helped a friend organise his portfolio and his daughters' portfolios.
Daughters live at home and are handicapped.He is now retired.
His portfolio. Based on 2016 projections. Sell; AIA as yield is low[3.26%] and eps growth rate[9.3%] is under a third of the PE 30.5.
................Reinvest funds elsewhere ,SKL yield 7.47% eps growth rate 5.3% and PE of 10.3.He needs income.
Daughters portfolio.Hold as AIA is the NZ company with the biggest moat. Auckland Airport is the gateway to NZ.Traffic will increase over the foreseeable future.With AIA's massive landbank future earnings will grow.Dividend is not a consideration.Objective is a very safe loan term growth business.

[Cricketfan]

AIA is a great monopoly business but it is not worth any price. People who bought it up $5.50 will take about 30 years to get their investment back.


You think it will take 30 years to get to $5.50??! But you're willing to buy at $4?

[see weed]

May get on board.. Definitely looking like some good buying opportunity

$2.50 is good buying at the next GFC:mellow:.

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm looking at both AIA and POT, both dividend yields are co-incidently 3.01%. PE for AIA is 25.31, POT is 29.11.

So in a game of would you rather, which one would you buy?

I believe POT has some good growth opportunities over the next 2-3 years so would buy POT over AIA.

Disc: hold POT and looking at buying more if there is a dip.

[percy]

I'm looking at both AIA and POT, both dividend yields are co-incidently 3.01%. PE for AIA is 25.31, POT is 29.11.

So in a game of would you rather, which one would you buy?

I believe POT has some good growth opportunities over the next 2-3 years so would buy POT over AIA.

Disc: hold POT and looking at buying more if there is a dip.

I sold my POT shares a week or two ago,as I felt the eps growth would be modest,and was looking for a higher yielding stock.
Much as AIA is NZ's airport,so POT is NZ's port.
If you are not looking for yield I think both are excellent long term shares to hold.As you already hold POT I think you could add AIA.
That AIA land bank is very attractive.

[arc]

Seems to be finding support at $4:85 this morning

11:22am going like a rocket... but can it be sustained?

[Arbroath]

You think it will take 30 years to get to $5.50??! But you're willing to buy at $4?
Cricketfan.

Theres a a big difference between $5.50 and $4. Eg 27% more value at $4. It's still a high quality monopoly asset so it is exceptionally difficult to buy such assets on the cheap. 2008/09 was that opportunity under $2 and a similar opportunity might not be seen again in AIA for 15-20 years.
To be precise at $5.50 AIA was trading on 37x this years underlying earnings and 29x including property revals. At $4 the metrics are 27x underlying and 21x after property revals. I think that is a fair price for the type and quality of assets they have.

[limmy]

The Canadian pension funds were prepared to pay more than $5 even when these shares were trading in the $3+ mark, but the then labour government didn't allow the sale to proceed. Remember this ? I can't remember what year it was but it would probably be around 8 years ago ?

[Arbroath]

The Canadian pension funds were prepared to pay more than $5 even when these shares were trading in the $3+ mark, but the then labour government didn't allow the sale to proceed. Remember this ? I can't remember what year it was but it would probably be around 8 years ago ?

Actually the Canadians bid $3.65 in late 2007 which the Government vetoed. That was after Dubai Aerospace had earlier bid about $3.80 I think and was also rejected.

[limmy]

Thanks, your memory is a lot better than mine. :)

[theace]

Have been wanting to get into this for a while, however the price keeps inching up. Any thoughts on entering from a divi perspective, and perhaps long time gain on SP?

[winner69]

Have been wanting to get into this for a while, however the price keeps inching up. Any thoughts on entering from a divi perspective, and perhaps long time gain on SP?

If you want in just buy them now.

Not worth trying to time a 'cheap' entry point - as you have experienced that day might never come.

Maybe do what some do ....buy half of what you want today and the rest over the the next week or month or so. That way at least you in.

[arc]

AIA is rather active
seems almost time for the next cyclical base jump to happen?
http://infinitas.co/img.lib/1-1.jpg

[macduffy]

AIA is rather active
seems almost time for the next cyclical base jump to happen?
http://infinitas.co/img.lib/1-1.jpg

Yes, it's a very good result. But at $6.30 they've already had a big jump and may be looking a tad expensive to some.

I hold.

[sb9]

Yes, it's a very good result. But at $6.30 they've already had a big jump and may be looking a tad expensive to some.

I hold.

Agree, I think its looking bit too expensive now...

Disc - non holder.

[arc]

I agree they have had a good run.
Expensive, is the result of continued high level support, its in prime position.

Just observing the acceleration angles/slopes associated with the growth-decay cycles. If you graph it out from beginning of 2012, and take a hard look at the overall trend curve cycles (not just the minor bumps that make up each curve line) the highs are higher as expected but the declines are also accordingly deeper.
Just crystal ball gazing... future strategies.

[Bjauck]

Agree, I think its looking bit too expensive now...

Disc - non holder. Some were saying it was too expensive when it was $3 something. But like Auckland house prices, the price just kept on climbing. How long will they remain too expensive? How reluctant are investors to quit a good company?

[macduffy]

Some were saying it was too expensive when it was $3 something. But like Auckland house prices, the price just kept on climbing. How long will they remain too expensive? How reluctant are investors to quit a good company?

That's half of the question. The other half is - will potential investors keep bidding up the price?

[percy]

Some were saying it was too expensive when it was $3 something. But like Auckland house prices, the price just kept on climbing. How long will they remain too expensive? How reluctant are investors to quit a good company?

One of my biggest mistakes was selling down AIA as I thought they were getting a bit too expensive.
However, a free ride on the remainder is very pleasant.

[ari]

One of my biggest mistakes was selling down AIA as I thought they were getting a bit too expensive.
However, a free ride on the remainder is very pleasant.

Watching closely, sold down yesterday and now ready to pounce!

[arc]

That was an interesting hiccup today 2.25% and back again. Still watching for the cyclic correction to kick in.

[skid]

They say to let your profits run--but even a good company can be overbought.

[Cricketfan]

I see Morningstar have changed their recommendation and valuation from Sell/$4.90 to Hold/$6.50 since last week's result. Not sure whether I should be reassured by that or not....

[Lewylewylewy]

Today there was news from NZX.AIR saying that there was a lot of competition that negatively effected their forecasts. Is this good for AIA, I wonder? More competition means cheaper prices and more traffic through AIA, I guess.

[macduffy]

Here's someone who's still buying AIA.

http://www.marcustoday.com.au/webpages/832_education.php?guid=71ad819e02d146eb5f23531e261 5793e&id=29923

Disc: Held since the IPO.

[Lewylewylewy]

Here's why I think AIA are always a good hold (sounds like a motley fool article title, doesn't it? Don't worry, I won't hassle anyone for a subscription part way through my post lol)...

1. High NTA, property in the best location to own property.
2. Somewhat of a monopoly, supported by half the population of NZ being close with poor transport infrastructure making competition hard.
3. NZ is and will always remain a desirable place to live and visit.
4. NZ is an island with a reliance on imports.
5. Most business is in Auckland.
6. Good dividend yield.
7. Probably barriers to entry (I imagine 'the man', whoever that is wouldn't just let you make an international airport just south of Auckland).

I haven't looked at the historic price for this one, but I suspect it would be a steady tend upwards with a do at each recession 2008 and 2012, with a quick recovery...

[Bjauck]

re:2 CNU is an example of what can happen to monopolies in NZ.
re:3 Probably
re:7 True, but can Ardmore aerodrome still be developed? Hamilton with a good Auckland connection could be a possibilty.

[mondograss]

I'd be surprised if Ardmore ever got developed, the population around there is pretty thin and the transport links even more non-existant than the present airport. The problem with getting to AIA is not really when you're coming from the South or East (or West now that the Waterview connection is nearly done). The problem is access from the CBD where all the tourists want to go, or from the North Shore. Developing Whenuapai was raised a while ago because of its proximity to the West and the Shore, and was howled down because people just didn't want the noise from it and frankly it just didn't make sense in a city of 1.5m people to have two airports. It still doesn't IMHO. A decent rail link to the existing airport would solve virtually all problems with it (except the monopoly issue) and it has tons of room to expand out there.

The thing I'm surprised about is that no-one that I've seen has proposed moving the port over to the Manukau. You could create a heck of a good logistics hub if you based the container port and terminal there alongside the airport, and you've already got the Wiri in-land port nearby. They have plenty of land there to use and it would solve the issue of expanding into the Waitemata rather permanently.

[Bjauck]

I'd be surprised if Ardmore ever got developed, the population around there is pretty thin and the transport links even more non-existant than the present airport. ...
Developments are happening near Ardmore and lack of population density may help as far as noise abatement is concerned. The Mill Road/Redoubt Road multi lane highway is currently at the later stages of being planned. The new highway passes close to Ardmore Aero and would be spur link to the Southern Motorway and South Western Motorway. Maybe Ardmore could become Auckland's Gatwick to Mangere's Heathrow?


...The thing I'm surprised about is that no-one that I've seen has proposed moving the port over to the Manukau. You could create a heck of a good logistics hub if you based the container port and terminal there alongside the airport, and you've already got the Wiri in-land port nearby. They have plenty of land there to use and it would solve the issue of expanding into the Waitemata rather permanently. The Manukau heads sand bar and general silting have been disincentives for development - I guess counteracting its convenience for transtasman trade.

[mondograss]

OK, I've only recently moved south of the Harbour Bridge so I haven't twigged that the highway went near Ardmore. Slight difference in scale though between Auckland and London eh? I still don't think its justified unless AIA really start to screw people on the landing charges. Seems to me that's not a big component of the ticket prices.

They have to dredge the Waitemata regularly to get the bigger ships in so yes it had occurred to me that it was an impediment for the Manukau, but seems like it shouldn't be a big deal, they were getting the cement ships in to Onehunga until recently.

[Bjauck]

OK, I've only recently moved south of the Harbour Bridge so I haven't twigged that the highway went near Ardmore. Slight difference in scale though between Auckland and London eh? I still don't think its justified unless AIA really start to screw people on the landing charges. Seems to me that's not a big component of the ticket prices.

They have to dredge the Waitemata regularly to get the bigger ships in so yes it had occurred to me that it was an impediment for the Manukau, but seems like it shouldn't be a big deal, they were getting the cement ships in to Onehunga until recently.
True London is a wee bit bigger - but including Luton, Stansted and City, it has five big Airports and even then, they are at close to capacity and without additional runways, will increasingly lose hub status to Amsterdam, Paris and others apparently. But AIA has expansion room so it would not make sense at this stage to enlist a second site. As long as they play fair, they should be able to avoid the regulator's ire. Although it would make sense to make sure a second site could be developed if needed in the future imo.

The Manukau has strong currents and narrower and shallower channels, which would need a lot more dredging than in the Waitemata. I agree it could be becoming more cost effective to develop and maintain Onehunga, although Tauranga has taken a lot of former Auckland trade I guess.

Edit: Just read this from 2015 :Holcim needed a newer site as they couldn't bring their newer ships into Onehunga because the water was too shallow.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11496775

[mondograss]

Edit: Just read this from 2015 :Holcim needed a newer site as they couldn't bring their newer ships into Onehunga because the water was too shallow.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11496775

To be fair though, it wouldn't be worth dredging the Manukau just for Holcim and they're pretty much the only one operating on that side of any scale. Plus they're right up near Mangere Bridge. If you look at the Manukau on Google Earth, you can see AIA is out in the main channel.

The argument against moving the port usually centers on the fact that all the freight comes from Auckland and particularly via the more industrial south of the city. To my mind if the port was based on\near the AIA land you'd gain a lot of synergy with the existing logistics operations there plus because you'd need rail to the port, you'd substantially enhance the business case for bringing rail to the airport as well.

[Subway]

I don't see any impending need for a second runway as mentioned in the 25 year plan.

Couple of reasons why: They are talking about building it at the latter of the 25 years, with rationalisation of routes, bigger planes and better landing technology means they won't (i believe) run out of capacity in landing slots to need it.

The land they have set aside for the new runway will be utilized for commercial property instead, AIA is increasingly more of a property fund than a utility anyway.

[Bjauck]

I don't see any impending need for a second runway as mentioned in the 25 year plan.

Couple of reasons why: They are talking about building it at the latter of the 25 years, with rationalisation of routes, bigger planes and better landing technology means they won't (i believe) run out of capacity in landing slots to need it.

The land they have set aside for the new runway will be utilized for commercial property instead, AIA is increasingly more of a property fund than a utility anyway.

I remember reading that Heathrow, with only two runways, had been on the verge of the limit for aircraft movements several times until landing technology enabled more aircraft to be squeezed in.

[mondograss]

I guess they have to hedge their bets and plan on growth continuing in a fairly linear fashion. And if in 25 years time we're all using VTOL, then I guess they can develop the land into warehouses or whatever then.

[RupertBear]

A newbie to share trading and wondered if someone could help me understand the sudden burst in AIA share price? Craig's Investment Partners rates it a Sell, which I did at $7 thinking that was a good move but it just keeps going up and up! What am I missing??

[mondograss]

Big increases in passenger movements at Queenstown, Auckland and Cairns airports (all owned by the AIA group) according to latest Op Stats. Only Mackay Airport letting the team down. Probably anticipation of a bumper FY result announcement in late August and probably very good forward guidance announcement at the same time.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/238082.pdf

[Lewylewylewy]

Big tourism reports + big immigration reports + John Key saying that immigration policy won't change + the above comment.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Good to see AIA's Queensland investments are starting to show signs of improvement after some pedestrian years.

There is a further oportunity in Queensland the AIA may chose to run the ruler over, but in my opinion should pass on.

This is Maroochydore Airport on the Sunshine Coast north of Brisbane. This is a municipal airport with the local shire wanting some outside investor to partner and pay for the airport development they plan.

In my opinion Southeast Queensland is already well served by airports, Brisbane, Gold Coast, the new private airport at Toowoomba and Maroochydore itself. With the new 2nd runway at Brisbane due to come on stream there is also a large capacity increase added.

I'm not saying AIA should never invest, I'm saying wait.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[mondograss]

Big tourism reports + big immigration reports + John Key saying that immigration policy won't change + the above comment.

+ the reserve bank talking tough about getting a drop in the NZ $ which will further shore up tourism numbers from the UK and USA in particular.

[mondograss]

New Op stats out today showing even more growth.

[winner69]

Spose no need to make any comment about another solid year for AIA

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/242469.pdf

[minimoke]

Spose no need to make any comment about another solid year for AIA

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/242469.pdf
Except for the reckless use of shareholder funds paying non-incentivised employees a $1500 bonus. They have a job and the reward for that job is their wages / salary - not some cash that should be paid out as dividend. If workers want a non-contractual bonus they should buy shares like the rest of us.

[winner69]

Except for the reckless use of shareholder funds paying non-incentivised employees a $1500 bonus. They have a job and the reward for that job is their wages / salary - not some cash that should be paid out as dividend. If workers want a non-contractual bonus they should buy shares like the rest of us.

Seems to be a trend starting here (AIR etc) .......maybe eases the conscience of those CEOs wih outrageous remuneration ....yeah right

[Deej5]

Except for the reckless use of shareholder funds paying non-incentivised employees a $1500 bonus. They have a job and the reward for that job is their wages / salary - not some cash that should be paid out as dividend. If workers want a non-contractual bonus they should buy shares like the rest of us.

Don't be so harsh. Rewarding employees means happy and loyal employees. That translates to a better efficient workforce. All good as I see it.

[minimoke]

Seems to be a trend starting here (AIR etc) .......maybe eases the conscience of those CEOs wih outrageous remuneration ....yeah right
I no longer hold AIR so felt constrained to moan on their holders behalf - perhaps they are happy. I am not.

There should be no trend. Pay the workers market rates / whatever they are worth and send surplus cash to the business owners -me ( with my small part), or reinvest.

[minimoke]

Don't be so harsh. Rewarding employees means happy and loyal employees. That translates to a better efficient workforce. All good as I see it.
I bet they get amply rewarded wgen their pay falls into their bank account each week. If the workers arent happy about that then let them find other work. If they arent then that suggests they are already happy. Efficiency comes from management not bonuses. And you dont want loyalty unless those workers are doing their job - for which they get oaid for.

I'd hate to think AIL has inneficient and disloyal workers on their payroll.

[winner69]

I bet they get amply rewarded wgen their pay falls into their bank account each week. If the workers arent happy about that then let them find other work. If they arent then that suggests they are already happy. Efficiency comes from management not bonuses. And you dont want loyalty unless those workers are doing their job - for which they get oaid for.

I'd hate to think AIL has inneficient and disloyal workers on their payroll.

They say a hug and a thank you and the occasional bit of praise from management is better outcome than just throwing cash at employees

[In4a$]

I bet they get amply rewarded wgen their pay falls into their bank account each week. If the workers arent happy about that then let them find other work. If they arent then that suggests they are already happy. Efficiency comes from management not bonuses. And you dont want loyalty unless those workers are doing their job - for which they get oaid for.

I'd hate to think AIL has inneficient and disloyal workers on their payroll.
My experience is exactly the opposite. Even small bonus's paid annually on the back of good results pays big benefits. Staff stay motivated longer and many keep the thought of company profits in mind. Which helps the bottom line next year. A lot of corporates are quick to cancel any pay increases ect when times are tough, why not pay a bit extra when times are good.

[macduffy]

I agree, IN4a$.

Share the rewards in good times and build employee goodwill for the company.

[minimoke]

A lot of corporates are quick to cancel any pay increases ect when times are tough, why not pay a bit extra when times are good.
Any company will look at keeping a lid on pay costs when times are tough - not just corporates. That is dimply sensible management.

When times are good, and skill supply/demand match there should be no requirement to increase pay - let alone pay a "bonus". When there is a disconnect between skill supply / demand then pay should be looked at.

Since when as a shareholder did we sign up to unearnt wealth being redistributed to the workers.

I am quite happy to pay a bonus if it is in the workers contract. If not, there is no room for such largesse at the shareholder expense. Afterall when times are tough we dont get a dividend and our share value reduces - do we expect the workers to cover our losses by making a deduction from their pay. Of course not.

[minimoke]

I agree, IN4a$.

Share the rewards in good times and build employee goodwill for the company.
If you want to share the rewards, how about sharing the losses?

[limmy]

It's easy to be generous with OPM. Other people's money.

[Sideshow Bob]

I've seen a lot worse examples of corporate largesse. But to put in context, there are only 300 FT staff employed by AIA - with almost 12,000 staff at the airport, mostly being contractors or employed elsewhere. Excludes those in the short-term incentive scheme - so obviously some benefit from the growth in value of the company, while others ordinarily do not.

[minimoke]

It's easy to be generous with OPM. Other people's money.
This is what happens when people stay quiet. Last year they made a special one-off discretionary payment of $1200. Now its $1500.

So if they have 300 staff and staff expences are $46.8m isnt an average of $153,000 per FTE enough to make them feel good and valued and motivated?

[macduffy]

It's easy to be generous with OPM. Other people's money.

As a shareholder from the IPO I'm more than happy to see a portion of "my money" spent in this way, influenced, of course, by the outstanding returns received over the years. As for sharing losses, employees - not AIA's - are usually at the sharp end of these by way of reorganisations and retrenchments.

[minimoke]

As a shareholder from the IPO I'm more than happy to see a portion of "my money" spent in this way,
Good. I suggest at the next AGM we propose that extra cash be distributed to shareholders who can then individually decide to top up employees pay if they so wish.

Disc - also a holder since IPO not all has been rewarding. 2005 - 2012 were unremarkable.

[axe]

Any company will look at keeping a lid on pay costs when times are tough - not just corporates. That is dimply sensible management.

When times are good, and skill supply/demand match there should be no requirement to increase pay - let alone pay a "bonus". When there is a disconnect between skill supply / demand then pay should be looked at.

Since when as a shareholder did we sign up to unearnt wealth being redistributed to the workers.

I am quite happy to pay a bonus if it is in the workers contract. If not, there is no room for such largesse at the shareholder expense. Afterall when times are tough we dont get a dividend and our share value reduces - do we expect the workers to cover our losses by making a deduction from their pay. Of course not.

. Unemployement is at low levels in NZ. Your company has invested in training and development of staff - now it has to retain them otherwise that investment is wasted; bonuses like this create a culture where the employees feel valued and will in turn give extra back to the company.

Also employee conditions and benefits are cut back during times of under performance. Most companies do not give employees a pay rise when times are tough for the company.
However the cost of living can increase during these times. So in real terms - when times are tough the workers do cover our losses.

[minimoke]

. Unemployement is at low levels in NZ. Your company has invested in training and development of staff - now it has to retain them otherwise that investment is wasted; bonuses like this create a culture where the employees feel valued and will in turn give extra back to the company. .
Bonuses should be performance related and negotiated ahead of time. Total remuneration goes into a retention strategy - not ad hoc cash payments later on. A Christmas ham is fine as a thankyou (plus the usual verbal / non cash ways of giving thanks). $1500 (plus Fringe Benifit Tax and superannuation) is simply taking from shareholders.

At $153,000 wage per employee we should be expecting nothing else but stella performance from this company

Cost of living is currently around zero - so no need to be inflating already large pay packets

[winner69]

Page 78/79/80 of the Financial Report makes interesting reading about how they remunerate staff and keep them motivated

Of interest 128 employees get over $100k

[Harvey Specter]

I have no issue with bonus pools increasing in good times, but a flat bonus to all employees is not best practice. it doesn't incentivise good work, just freeloading retention. The good staff are worth more than $1,500 so could still decide to leave, yet the bad staff will stay because they hope to get a 'free' bonus next year too.

[Jim]

I have no issue with bonus pools increasing in good times, but a flat bonus to all employees is not best practice. it doesn't incentivise good work, just freeloading retention. The good staff are worth more than $1,500 so could still decide to leave, yet the bad staff will stay because they hope to get a 'free' bonus next year too.

AIA is a monopoly cash cow. It doesn't matter who the staffs are they still make money in bad time and they make very good money in good time. I hold AIA since listed and never sold any but buy it when Mr Market offer a bargain

[RupertBear]

AIA is a monopoly cash cow. It doesn't matter who the staffs are they still make money in bad time and they make very good money in good time. I hold AIA since listed and never sold any but buy it when Mr Market offer a bargain

Having stupidly sold some recently at $7.00 I would be keen to buy some back at a bargin price :) but I cant see that happening for a while...if ever. Will probably end up buying back the ones I sold if they ever go back to $7.00 :(

[Zaphod]

AIA is a monopoly cash cow. It doesn't matter who the staffs are they still make money in bad time and they make very good money in good time. I hold AIA since listed and never sold any but buy it when Mr Market offer a bargain

IMO highly skilled and committed staff can make a material difference to the profitability of a business regardless of their status as a monopoly. Hopefully those that are ideologically opposed to the incentive paid to employees sell, thereby providing a bargain buying opportunity for committed investors.

[Zaphod]

I have no issue with bonus pools increasing in good times, but a flat bonus to all employees is not best practice. it doesn't incentivise good work, just freeloading retention. The good staff are worth more than $1,500 so could still decide to leave, yet the bad staff will stay because they hope to get a 'free' bonus next year too.

Perhaps if AIA's HR policies and procedures are finely tuned, then non-performing staff should either be removed or never hired in the first place.

As a coincidence, I've been reading through some HR studies that dismiss the practice of incentivising employees via bonuses or commissions. Perhaps the tide is turning.

[Cricketfan]

Pizza is cheaper: ​http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83697808/the-key-to-motivating-staff-comes-in-the-form-of-pizza-and-compliments

[voltage]

Craigs have a sell on the stock

[minimoke]

IMO highly skilled and committed staff can make a material difference to the profitability of a business regardless of their status as a monopoly. Hopefully those that are ideologically opposed to the incentive paid to employees sell, thereby providing a bargain buying opportunity for committed investors.
I have no problem with incentive plans so I wont be selling. Such plans can be good - give your staff something additional to aim for and reward them on achievement. Its the willy nilly handing out of the owners cash to individuals with no evidence of their actual individual contribution (over and above their job) to the enhanced profit that i ma opposed to. Talk about privatizing the loss and socializing the profit! (thats something you wont see in the text books)

[peat]

Craigs have a sell on the stock
but stress that they only do this because of a perceived market overvaluation. (cf any criticism of the company itself).

[percy]

Craigs have a sell on the stock

I spoke to my Craigs broker yesterday,and asked him his thoughts on AIA.
"Well I brought them for my own portfolio last year.I am looking at where I think they will be in 10 years time,and that looks pretty good to me."
Must admit I agree with him.

[minimoke]

Theres not much to disagree with. A monopoly air terminal and well run property company its hard to see how they could go wrong - as long as property assets arent over valued. Stick in some corporate offices for lease and open up housing in that neck of the woods and lets wait for a shift from the CBD

[Muppett]

but stress that they only do this because of a perceived market overvaluation. (cf any criticism of the company itself).

Does anyone know what Craigs have as the recommended SP?

[mani99]

AIA has taken a bit of a beating of the past week or so. Down to the possible Fed interest rate hike? Ex-Dividend?

Tempted to top up soon...

[waikare]

AIA has taken a bit of a beating of the past week or so. Down to the possible Fed interest rate hike? Ex-Dividend?

Tempted to top up soon...

On the 1 Sept AIA closed at $7.52, yesterday closing price was $6.72, down $0.80 or 10% why the fall in that short period, the dividend can only account for $0.09 of that.

[macduffy]

On the 1 Sept AIA closed at $7.52, yesterday closing price was $6.72, down $0.80 or 10% why the fall in that short period, the dividend can only account for $0.09 of that.

There's probably a number of adverse factors at play but personally, I reckon it's a case of property and infrastructure stocks falling out of favour as realisation of eventual higher interest rates gathers pace.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11726292

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/246353.pdf

I'm pretty sure they've more than capable team in the company that can put together a decent PowerPoint presentation slides than just putting out a word document. Not a great effort from a corporate of this calibre.

[macduffy]

The important bit was that profit guidance for the current year was confirmed. Personally, I'd rather have a clear transcript of an actual speech than an illustrated Powerpoint presentation.

:)

[Voskar56]

AIA Down 36 cents today, is it time to buy, or is there more to come (SP down further) following on from the correction of AIR recently?

[Snow Leopard]

AIA Down 36 cents today, is it time to buy, or is there more to come (SP down further) following on from the correction of AIR recently?

Personally my NZX Stock Buying button is currently in an unlit cellar with no stairs, in the bottom of locked filling cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS I do feel sorry for the Leopard.

[arc]

AIA Down 36 cents today, is it time to buy, or is there more to come (SP down further) following on from the correction of AIR recently?


The lemmings are jumping off ledges today...

[Voskar56]

Hmmm last sale was at $6.37 it's looking tempting

[arc]

Hmmm last sale was at $6.37 it's looking tempting


But how far has it yet to go ... and how long...?... the great unknowns at present.

Personally I'm waiting till after the election.
Then thinking a reversed-Logarithmic scale for purchases in a downward market, only If the trend lines and vectors imply a "slowing" in the overall market decline process.

Personally I don't see that the market(s) have shrugged off the Brexit, and with the election in a few days I don't expect positive signs this side of Christmas.




Personally my NZX Stock Buying button is currently in an unlit cellar with no stairs, in the bottom of locked filling cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS I do feel sorry for the Leopard.

Mr Dents mirror double

[macduffy]

Hmmm last sale was at $6.37 it's looking tempting

Tempting, maybe, but I'm waiting for arc's lemmings to stop jumping first. Plenty of time then to pick up a few more AIA.

:cool:

[arc]

Tempting, maybe, but I'm waiting for arc's lemmings to stop jumping first. Plenty of time then to pick up a few more AIA.

:cool:


SP falling
Looks like some still think there is worse to come... is it just an emotional response to yesterday ? or omens of where the next few years are going

[arc]

Sydney Airport SYD.AX is in a similar trend. Both down today against the market tone. Curious also. :confused:

Trump vs. China woe?

It would be interesting to be able to follow that money trail.
A- Is it going back to America, in the belief that Trump can actually achieve growth.
B- Is it Putin taking home the cash to build the war-chest
C- Or is it just a rather bored but very rich Saudi prince having another fling...

[arc]

Looking at the figures on this one... does not make sense, to my untrained eye.

We all know everyone was aware of the impending USA election (AIA sell down started end of October / beginning September) seemed to follow the normal sell down patterns. Wednesday 9th took a tumble like everything else High $6.78 to a Low of $6.41 in the afternoon panic session. Thursday opening with a brief recovery to $6.68, followed by immediate sell down recommencing.

You would think that people would be pleased with the recovery and hold back, hoping for a stable trend to emerge. That apparently is not the case. The only way to maintain this continual downward pressure is with extensive holdings at your command.

I find it curious that AIA and AIR are/have both trended down (acknowledging the time frames between both events commencing) , beneath substantial pressure.

So here's the question. Are the Instos seriously expecting a BEAR market... very very soon.

[h2so4]

Looking at the figures on this one... does not make sense, to my untrained eye.

We all know everyone was aware of the impending USA election (AIA sell down started end of October / beginning September) seemed to follow the normal sell down patterns. Wednesday 9th took a tumble like everything else High $6.78 to a Low of $6.41 in the afternoon panic session. Thursday opening with a brief recovery to $6.68, followed by immediate sell down recommencing.

You would think that people would be pleased with the recovery and hold back, hoping for a stable trend to emerge. That apparently is not the case. The only way to maintain this continual downward pressure is with extensive holdings at your command.

I find it curious that AIA and AIR are/have both trended down (acknowledging the time frames between both events starting) , beneath substantial pressure.

So here's the question. Are the Instos seriously expecting a BEAR market... very very soon.

I wouldn't think you would have two bear markets in less than 48 hours.

[arc]

As I sit here watching the news tonight (TV and Internet), America is experiencing growing tension / protests / mini riots. There are some seriously unhappy people out there.


time for me to be quiet now... too much raving

[kerryo]

Here comes the robot selling again, lets it build up a bit then starts dumping.

[peat]

Looking at the figures on this one... does not make sense, to my untrained eye.

We all know everyone was aware of the impending USA election (AIA sell down started end of October / beginning September) seemed to follow the normal sell down patterns. Wednesday 9th took a tumble like everything else High $6.78 to a Low of $6.41 in the afternoon panic session. Thursday opening with a brief recovery to $6.68, followed by immediate sell down recommencing.

You would think that people would be pleased with the recovery and hold back, hoping for a stable trend to emerge. That apparently is not the case. The only way to maintain this continual downward pressure is with extensive holdings at your command.

I find it curious that AIA and AIR are/have both trended down (acknowledging the time frames between both events commencing) , beneath substantial pressure.

So here's the question. Are the Instos seriously expecting a BEAR market... very very soon.

I think the concern with AIA is simply the valuation. No one disputes the quality of the company - its just that at some point the valuation become prohibitive from an investment fundamental perspective .i.e even if they continue to perform well from an earnings view , it simply doesnt make investment sense to keep buying above a certain price. Even now at $6.12 they are still on a P/E approaching 30 and they are paying out all their earning to sustain a 3.8% dividend yield. Not much left for expansion plans.

[arc]

Possible AIA pivot point reached, or someones psychological support base.?

ticking up nicely...

[Marilyn Munroe]

Bryan Gaynor in the NZ Herald gives AIA directors a boxing around the ears for a lack of forward planning leading to current congestion;


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11785883

Book boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Bryan Gaynor in the NZ Herald gives AIA directors a boxing around the ears for a lack of forward planning leading to current congestion;


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11785883

Book boop de do
Marilyn

The real problem (extract) -


It is easy to argue from these figures that the Auckland Airport board placed a stronger emphasis on maximising short-term profitability, and making huge distributions to shareholders, instead of investing in infrastructure that would accommodate the massive increase in passenger numbers.

Bugger - I forgot that these 'huge distributions to shareholders' were probably demanded by same shareholders. Greedy lot

[iceman]

Bryan Gaynor in the NZ Herald gives AIA directors a boxing around the ears for a lack of forward planning leading to current congestion;


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11785883

Book boop de do
Marilyn

I think Gaynor has hit the nail squarely on the head. Auckland International airport is a complete mess and struggling severely with the huge increase in traffic and the lack of forward planning is painfully obvious. The Auckland Council has done even less to deal with the increased traffic. NZ needs a proper international airport in Christchurch and traffic needs to be directed there.

[percy]

Had Auckland gone with the late Llyod Morrison's plan to use Whenuapai they would not be in the mess they are in now.
Even if they came up with a plan today, it would be years away before it came into being.

[Subway]

Had Auckland gone with the late Llyod Morrison's plan to use Whenuapai they would not be in the mess they are in now.
Even if they came up with a plan today, it would be years away before it came into being.

I'm not really sure a new airport is the solution, they haven't reached capacity yet, and by most airport standards, Auckland isn't that busy.

Who would you relocate to Whenuapai? Low Cost Airlines? But Which? What would you do with all the passengers who need to make connections?

What they do need to do is seriously re think transport in the area.

Perhaps have a remote drop off and pick up and use a people mover to get passengers to the terminals. This could also connect with light rail to Onehunga/connect to the City, the key is to get cars away from the blocked drop off and pick up areas and the feeder roads.

[percy]

I'm not really sure a new airport is the solution, they haven't reached capacity yet, and by most airport standards, Auckland isn't that busy.

Who would you relocate to Whenuapai? Low Cost Airlines? But Which? What would you do with all the passengers who need to make connections?

What they do need to do is seriously re think transport in the area.

Perhaps have a remote drop off and pick up and use a people mover to get passengers to the terminals. This could also connect with light rail to Onehunga/connect to the City, the key is to get cars away from the blocked drop off and pick up areas and the feeder roads.

Yes I think your post is correct.

[Jay]

Yes I think your post is correct.

I'll second that!

Another airport only creates more problems such as you say subway, plus part of the problem is more people are using the roads in and out as a "bypass", they are not actually going to the airport

[mondograss]

There's been a lot more housing built out that way, so yes Jay you're right a lot of it is through traffic. Whenuapai would never have got off the ground, not least because of all the new housing that's gone in at Hobsonville, it would have decimated those developments. Plus you don't exactly have good transport links to it either, so if you've got to build a transit solution you might as well build it to the current airport (really we need to just get rail to the airport and be done with it). Further back in the thread is a discussion around the merits of a different proposal to make Ardmore a second airport (which personally I don't think is justified, but makes more sense than Whenuapai).

[iceman]

I'm not really sure a new airport is the solution, they haven't reached capacity yet, and by most airport standards, Auckland isn't that busy.

Who would you relocate to Whenuapai? Low Cost Airlines? But Which? What would you do with all the passengers who need to make connections?

What they do need to do is seriously re think transport in the area.

Perhaps have a remote drop off and pick up and use a people mover to get passengers to the terminals. This could also connect with light rail to Onehunga/connect to the City, the key is to get cars away from the blocked drop off and pick up areas and the feeder roads.

You may well be right that they have not reached capacity yet subway but they have seriously under invested for many years now and have very little chance of catching up with the fast growing tourism and other travel business. Auckland International Airport is a mess at the moment. We have other international airports in Wellington and Christchurch. A large number of tourists travel the South Island. Increased flights to and from Christchurch in my view is the obvious solution to ease Auckland's congestion that will only grow

[Subway]

You may well be right that they have not reached capacity yet subway but they have seriously under invested for many years now and have very little chance of catching up with the fast growing tourism and other travel business. Auckland International Airport is a mess at the moment. We have other international airports in Wellington and Christchurch. A large number of tourists travel the South Island. Increased flights to and from Christchurch in my view is the obvious solution to ease Auckland's congestion that will only grow

I think the other issue is the divergence between AIA being an airport, and being a property trust that happens to be an airport too. I mentioned this at a bond presso a few years ago when they mentioned the need for a second runway, based on projections and the rationalisation of flights into the country (the new Sydney Airport, sending flights to ChCh and Queenstown out of Aus instead) I couldn’t see that Auckland Airport would need a second runway in the near future. But, freeing up that land to develop commercial property around the airport is just going to make the congestion problems worse.

[arc]

Perhaps extend Hamilton's runway.. a LOT.
And build a Suspension Railway (A train hanging from a central tubing system) but the high speed version between the two centers, right into downtown Auckland.

Auckland has already spread over the bombay hills and both places will join in ... a while. Lay the ground work now and prepare the future for high speed mass transit.

And draw up a suspension link to Tauranga while they are at it.

A 300 to 400 kmph train would put Auckland within easy commuting range for a house in Hamilton and also the Bay of Plenty.

[mondograss]

Given how long the Waikato Expressway work has been going on, I don't like your chances of getting rapid rail from Hamilton any time soon. Just a basic commuter service would be a nice start to be honest.

[macduffy]

AIA reports another record month for international passengers.

No surprises there!

I hold.

[Jim]

AIA is truly one of the best long term hold-forever. I have been holding it since it was floated and top up as Mr Market decide to sell at a bargain. It is now my largest holding in my portfolio of shares

[Joshuatree]

The first commercial flying car hits the market | Komando.com (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjKzfHA-7TSAhWKhFQKHaOfDQgQqUMIPTAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.komando.com%2Fcars-trucks-tech%2F391918%2Fthe-first-commercial-flying-car-hits-the-market&usg=AFQjCNGdU708lP9OYxSiNqIlQJGJSFz8lw) Wait till these get cheaper and better;)

[kiora]

The first commercial flying car hits the market | Komando.com (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjKzfHA-7TSAhWKhFQKHaOfDQgQqUMIPTAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.komando.com%2Fcars-trucks-tech%2F391918%2Fthe-first-commercial-flying-car-hits-the-market&usg=AFQjCNGdU708lP9OYxSiNqIlQJGJSFz8lw) Wait till these get cheaper and better;)

Cooler than a Jetpack :)

[Bluedog]

Even though I just sold my entire position in AIA yesterday, I plan to be back. I live in Maine (USA). AIA is the first foreign stock I ever bought. It's difficult to get reliable info on AIA from here. It just seemed toppy to me. Their performance & prospects are great, but I'm concerned that they will disappoint in execution. I've seen companies struggle with too much success. I need to see how they respond before I buy back in. Your thoughts? LL Bean was my customer. I've seen this situation up close.

[Snow Leopard]

...I live in Maine (USA)...

You have our most sincere sympathies :(.

We all get our information via the internet.

What is a LL Bean?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Welcome to ShareTrader.

[Harley]

Even though I just sold my entire position in AIA yesterday, I plan to be back. I live in Maine (USA). AIA is the first foreign stock I ever bought. It's difficult to get reliable info on AIA from here. It just seemed toppy to me. Their performance & prospects are great, but I'm concerned that they will disappoint in execution. I've seen companies struggle with too much success. I need to see how they respond before I buy back in. Your thoughts? LL Bean was my customer. I've seen this situation up close.

Well now, you sold all your shares in our most mighty of Airports? The greatest airport in the world? Seems like what we have here is a Trump supporter, plain and simple.

[winner69]

I don't live in Maine but ....


You have our most sincere sympathies :(.

We all get our information via the internet.

What is a LL Bean?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Welcome to ShareTrader.

L.L. Bean - ecommerce, mail order retailer selling mainly clothing and outdoor recreation equipmemt with sales ~1.6billion? Been going since 1912 apparently

Based in Maine ....and jeez I've never been there

Wonder what JJ has in common with AIA - must be a good story Bluedog

[Snow Leopard]

But seriously folks,

I have never owned AIA but a look at a chart with an 8 year time frame or shorter suggests that it would have been a good idea.

Despite a recent lackluster one year price performance it seems to be on the up again, possibly not the time to dump them ( I am ignoring the old USD to NZD movement here)

Away from the charts it does strike me on a fundamental basis that it is trading at a significant price to fair value but it can probably squeeze a few more years of profit growth out of the desire for everybody to fly.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Bluedog]

Well now, you sold all your shares in our most mighty of Airports? The greatest airport in the world? Seems like what we have here is a Trump supporter, plain and simple.
No, No, No. I love AIA. And I'll be back. It's just a critical golden goose like AIA is vulnerable to regulation socialist government like yours. What the hell does Trump have to do with my investments?

[macduffy]

You're right about the "subject to regulation" bit, Bluedog, and AIA gets its share of that as a part of doing business. But it's the only international airport in the biggest centre of population and commerce in this country and despite shortcomings, finds it hard not to succeed!

I hold.

[Lewylewylewy]

Other than an increase in passengers, how can AIA grow?

[Bluedog]

Thanks for restoring my confidence in this form. Harley's comment was political as many of his seem to be. I spent the better part of a year selecting the best countries in which to invest. NZ was my 1st choice & AIA my first buy in 2014. I still hold SKC & RYM; but my confidence in them is shakey. FYI, my other choices were Australia, Singapore, Canada, & Norway.

[Bluedog]

I agree. Good luck to you".
Experience is what you gain when the results aren't what you were expecting."

[Bjauck]

No, No, No. I love AIA. And I'll be back. It's just a critical golden goose like AIA is vulnerable to regulation socialist government like yours. What the hell does Trump have to do with my investments? PM Bill English is not socialist, nor is his government. The ComCom is a quango, which overseas the regulatory framework. All civilisations have regulations. It does not make them socialist. Although I guess it is a question of degree and with what you use as a basis of comparison.

AIA used to be owned by government bodies and now it is not. I think the Council retains just under 25% ownership of the ordinary shares, So that perhaps indicates NZ has become less socialist...

The ComCom had a devasting impact on CNU with its heavy handed and contentious decisions so I guess it could not be ruled out that something similar in the future could happen to AIA.

From Wikipedia: Socialism is a range of economic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_systems) and social systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_system) characterised by social ownership (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_ownership) and democratic control (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers%27_self-management) of the means of production (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Means_of_production);[10] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism#cite_note-10) as well as the political ideologies, theories, and movements that aim to establish them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism

I sold some of my AIA about a year ago. I thought the SP had got ahead of itself! I almost immediately regretted my decision!

[macduffy]

Other than an increase in passengers, how can AIA grow?

Remember that AIA is largely a property company that derives much of its income from developing and leasing retail, commercial and light industrial space to a variety of businesses that need to locate in, or near, the airport. There's growth there!

[RGR367]

Remember that AIA is largely a property company that derives much of its income from developing and leasing retail, commercial and light industrial space to a variety of businesses that need to locate in, or near, the airport. There's growth there!

Right on target and that's is where or how you can participate on the so called Auckland property boom :t_up:

[Marilyn Munroe]

Other than an increase in passengers, how can AIA grow?

The mew Western Sydney Airport is about to kick off. The Sydney Airport Corporation have first dibs at building it but if they do not want to anyone can have a crack. Given the mercurial nature of NSW state and Aussie Federal politics it would be a courageous developer who attempted this without the political remains of the Rum Corps neutralised.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Bluedog]

Thanks for setting me straight on the NZ gov. I also was burned big time by CNU; but I held on assuming the gov would ultimately protect it. I then sold after getting back much of the losses. The gov knife has two edges.

[mondograss]

The thing to remember is that we're a small country (about the population of Boston spread over an area about the size of Colorado), accordingly there's a lot less scope for competition on big infrastructure services because the economics of competing just don't stack up, with the result that there's a tendency towards monopolies or duopolies.

[winner69]

Thanks for setting me straight on the NZ gov. I also was burned big time by CNU; but I held on assuming the gov would ultimately protect it. I then sold after getting back much of the losses. The gov knife has two edges.


What's the story behind L.L.Bean

[Bluedog]

What's the story behind L.L.Bean
Did you get my personal reply? Didn't want pollute the forum with extraneous detail. Your posters should know that us foreign investors must consider NZD vs USD. Right now my gov is trying to strengthen USD, which is bad for my foreign investments no matter how attractive they are. The US market may become attractive if we have at least a 10% pullback. Defense stocks like NOC, LMT, BA, HII, & RAYTHEON may become attractive, but not yet. Just sold NOC, BA, LMT. Now wait & see.
Bluedog

[winner69]

Poor Grizz

Wonder if he was an employee or just a contarctor

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/90534554/runaway-aviation-security-dog-causes-flight-delays-at-auckland-airport

[Zaphod]

Poor Grizz

Wonder if he was an employee or just a contarctor

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/90534554/runaway-aviation-security-dog-causes-flight-delays-at-auckland-airport

A very disappointing outcome. Hopefully this will bring to the fore the issue of having a tranquiliser gun readily available for any future such incident, as well as any other precautions that could have been taken.

[Cricketfan]

A very disappointing outcome. Hopefully this will bring to the fore the issue of having a tranquiliser gun readily available for any future such incident, as well as any other precautions that could have been taken.

Absolutely. You would think they would have one available given the different types of animals they have in quarantine. Or maybe their plan was to just shoot to kill any if they got loose.

[Marilyn Munroe]

A very disappointing outcome.

This attempt at mission creep by the empire builders at Aviation Security Service has suffered a set back. Guess they will have to shift focus back to their main task, confiscating water bottles.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[peat]

sorry if I am an idiot but how does a puppy on a runway cause danger to a plane? surely chancing that it would get mashed by a 747 is better than shooting it. I surmise the answer is that it was a danger to the landing and takeoff of planes but would it really. Its a tiny puppy and its not going to get sucked in the engine while the plane is taking off so I dont quite get it?

[Marilyn Munroe]

sorry if I am an idiot but how does a puppy on a runway cause danger to a plane?

The principal job of the Aviation Security Service is to inconvenience travellers. Shutting down an airport while they look for one of their lost dogs is an extension of their primary task.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Global outrage

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/90580214/anger-escalates-over-grizz-the-dogs-shooting

Absolutely deplorable - shooting a dog so your planes could fly. That very dog would be used to protect your clients.. Apparently that is how things are done in New Zealand. - airport is a dump.

Can't believe you shot this young innocent dog! If you can't handle animals, don't get close to any of them. If you can't use your brains, don't run a business, let alone an airport.

[percy]

Sad yes.
However my mind goes back to the drivers killed at Le Mans, avoiding dogs that managed to get onto the racing track.
A pilot with a full plane would not like to hit anything on take off or landing, at over 60 kph.
I hit a possum one night at about 80 kph.Thought I had hit a massive rock.

[Beagle]

sorry if I am an idiot but how does a puppy on a runway cause danger to a plane? surely chancing that it would get mashed by a 747 is better than shooting it. I surmise the answer is that it was a danger to the landing and takeoff of planes but would it really. Its a tiny puppy and its not going to get sucked in the engine while the plane is taking off so I dont quite get it?

I am sure all people who love animals are disturbed by this, (as was I). Not trying to defend their action but the fact is that Auckland airport is a massive open area and once poor Grizz had been thoroughly spooked as its clear he was it may have been almost impossible to get into range to shoot him with a tranquilizer gun which may have quite limited range ? https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110304101231AAYpR4l FYI a decent sized bird ingested into an aircraft engine can destroy the engine almost immediately so a dog could have even more catastrophic effects and if that happened to a twin engine plane right at the point of takeoff...well we all saw what happened to the last commercial flight of the Concorde, enough said.

Absolutely a full enquiry must be held to ensure a dog on the loose is extremely unlikely to ever happen again and if it does that a better solution can be implemented.

[iceman]

I am sure all people who love animals are disturbed by this, (as was I). Not trying to defend their action but the fact is that Auckland airport is a massive open area and once poor Grizz had been thoroughly spooked as its clear he was it may have been almost impossible to get into range to shoot him with a tranquilizer gun which may have quite limited range ? https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110304101231AAYpR4l FYI a decent sized bird ingested into an aircraft engine can destroy the engine almost immediately so a dog could have even more catastrophic effects and if that happened to a twin engine plane right at the point of takeoff...well we all saw what happened to the last commercial flight of the Concorde, enough said.

Absolutely a full enquiry must be held to ensure a dog on the loose is extremely unlikely to ever happen again and if it does that a better solution can be implemented.

Agree Roger. Those saying the dog should have been shot with a tranquilizer gun don't know what they are talking about. BUT, no need for a "full enquiry" either. I have absolutely full faith that the people whose responsibility it is to deal with issues like this at the airport know what they are doing and do not make decisions like this lightly. I am sure they are not taking any pleasure from having to kill that poor little dog.

[freddagg]

Keep it in perspective. It's just a dog. A hundred die every day in New Zealand.

[peat]

FYI a decent sized bird ingested into an aircraft engine can destroy the engine almost immediately so a dog could have even more catastrophic effects and if that happened to a twin engine plane right at the point of takeoff...

but my point was that a dog doesnt fly like a bird so it would never get sucked into the engine. sure it might get run over and a small plane could conceivably be disturbed, but the likelihood of that seems just infintessimal.

[couta1]

Keep it in perspective. It's just a dog. A hundred die every day in New Zealand. And another hundred suffer unecessary abuse at the hands of their owners, I hate animal abusers with a passion.

[Zaphod]

Those saying the dog should have been shot with a tranquilizer gun don't know what they are talking about.

A tranquilizer gun may well have been a valid option, or it might not have; We do not have all the facts. That does not however invalidate the opinion of those who have proposed it.

Whatever can be done to ensure that this incident does not reoccur, for both the sake of the animal and of the company who are taking a PR hammering, absolutely needs to occur.

[Beagle]

sorry if I am an idiot but how does a puppy on a runway cause danger to a plane? surely chancing that it would get mashed by a 747 is better than shooting it. I surmise the answer is that it was a danger to the landing and takeoff of planes but would it really. Its a tiny puppy and its not going to get sucked in the engine while the plane is taking off so I dont quite get it? ...


but my point was that a dog doesnt fly like a bird so it would never get sucked into the engine. sure it might get run over and a small plane could conceivably be disturbed, but the likelihood of that seems just infintessimal.

Hi Peat. Just to explain...if they let the poor dog run around and let aircraft take off hoping he would not run out in front of one in the final stages of accelerating, (known as V1) it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the dog could indeed dart out in front of the aircraft and get sucked into one of the engines right at the point when it was about to leave the tarmac travelling too fast to stop or abort the takeoff. You then have a situation where the aircraft just becomes airborne with one engine on fire...google last commercial flight of the Concorde to see what that looks like. Even if the aircraft could possibly take off on the one remaining engine, it can take up to seven seconds for the remaining engine to make full thrust as it spools up from normal takeoff power, seven seconds the aircraft and is passengers may not have if it's only just at the point of rotation. Quite aside from that a Trent 1000 aircraft on a Dreamliner is a ~ $US20million dollar bit of kit as well as possible damage to the wing....how you value dogs I have no idea but I reckon my two are each million dollar dogs to me. I love dogs mate, believe me, I'm a huge fan, often more fun than kids and certainly a lot less drama but passenger safety comes first, end of story.

Thanks Iceman, appreciate your thoughts mate but I feel a full enquiry is needed to ascertain exactly how the dog got off leash out onto the tarmac in the first place and should they have a tranquilizer gun on hand just in case they can get within close enough range and if so what sort of tranquilizer drug and dose to use and how long do they persevere with attempts to try and get within range to effect a tranquilizer shot before resorting to fatal force and any other relevant alternative possible means of regaining control of the dog without resorting to fatal force ?

For an explanation of V1 and V2 runway speeds and what they mean see here https://www.quora.com/What-do-V1-and-V2-mean-during-takeoff
If you've attained V1 but not V2 and lose an engine in between those two speeds you could be in serious trouble, (happy to be corrected by any commercial pilot)
This from a pilot forum which you may find is a better explanation, emphasis added.

As Sudden points out, 80 knots is also a significant call.

You can abort all the way up to V1, but in practice the decision speed is normally split in two.

Up to 80 knots you will abort for anything.
Between 80 knots and V1 you only abort for engine failure, fire and other serious problems.
Above V1 you take off unless you have serious doubts about the ability of the plane to sustain flight.

The reason for the 80 knots->V1 interval is as follows: While it is possible to stop, it's not entirely risk free. Braking that hard may mean blowing the tires and so forth, maybe prompting a slide evacuation. So if the malfunction is minor, you would keep going.

Another reason for the 80 knot call is that on planes with only one nosewheel tiller (such as the MD-80) this is the point where the Captain lets go of the tiller if the F/O is flying.

At V1 speed the aircraft is still on the runway and the engines are sucking in vast quantities of air and... anything else in close proximity.

[RupertBear]

Keep it in perspective. It's just a dog. A hundred die every day in New Zealand.

What do you mean "its just a dog"? :confused:

[peat]

thanks Rog
I understand but I'm still a bit of dubious of the chances of anything like that happening. But yeh if it did, there'd be hell to play with the blame-storming so arses must be covered.
I totally agree about takeoff being most dangerous part of a flight. I'm always relieved when altitude has been acquired.

[ratkin]

If there was a risk of the dog being sucked into an engine, then they should have grounded the planes until the dog was caught. Another example of putting money over life.

[macduffy]

If there was a risk of the dog being sucked into an engine, then they should have grounded the planes until the dog was caught. Another example of putting money over life.

Is it that sinple when there are aircraft in the sky heading for Auckland, including numerous international flights with limited alternative airports available?

[Beagle]

Is it that sinple when there are aircraft in the sky heading for Auckland, including numerous international flights with limited alternative airports available?

Not to forget limited fuel remaining on board and the enormous cost of diverting to other airports assuming they can safely make it there with fuel remaining and then subsequently flying the aircraft back to AIA.
I think that's the real issue and why it doesn't give them much time with means other than fatal force. SPCA have hundreds of dogs available for adoption if anyone is keen to have man's best friend by their side and save a life.
Very rewarding experience having a dog or three in the family in my opinion. Often far more rewarding and always far less effort than raising kids lol.

[NZSilver]

Good buying at the moment, sitting sub 7

[couta1]

Good buying at the moment, sitting sub 7 Dividend yield is pathetic at current prices, good if you bought in at half the price.

[Beagle]

Now snakes on the loose for goodness sake ! http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/auckland-airport-staff-find-stowaway-snake/ar-BByQhl4?li=AA59FU&ocid=spartandhp

[Bluedog]

A few weeks ago I posted that I sold all my AIA (@$7.24). It was the very first foreign stock I ever bought (I'm US). I just loved its story. Really hated to sell; but trees don't grow to the sky, not even in NZ.
Seeing $6.76, I looking to nibble back in. UNTIL I read an article titled "Too Many People Are Going to New Zealand. And That’s a Problem" on Bloomberg. I hear the calls for AIA grow quickly but will that alone be the answer? Hotel occupancy is maxed out with 4 & 5 star hotels experiencing 93%+. Attractive destinations are being overwhelmed with thousands rather than capacity for hundreds. Small tourist towns are struggling financially to provide the usually free services.
What's the answer guys? So what if we want increased air traffic? What's a tourist to do once here.
Any insights you may have would be most appreciated.

[percy]

Hire a motor-home from NZ listed company THL.Go where you want,when you want.

[h2so4]

Hire a motor-home from NZ listed company THL.Go where you want,when you want.

Or sleep in the car. It's called an adventure.

You could always book your hotel in advance.

[h2so4]

....or alternatively. There is a small island off the coast called Australia that copes with the NZ tourist overflow. Book your hotel there and do day trips to NZ flying AIR.

[IAK]

....or Airbnb. Pretty popular around the Rotorua lakes.

[Bluedog]

Love your Australian put down. It must be nice to live in such great country. Great NZ humor. Just what I'd expect. Gd'day.

[Blue Skies]

Airbnb is growing rapidly everywhere, no shortage of accom avail on Airbnb. Everyone i know, independent travellers from all age groups are using it for travel now, rather than hotels or motels which more and more are catering to travellers on packages or business travel.

[Blackrose]

Heya - I love my AIA shares. I do. It's an emotional purchase rather than a investment one. AIA is the biggest entry into Auckland NZ, and largest airport in NZ. The biggest thing to recommend AIA is it's car parking situation and land around the airport.

This is rather old news but it seemed like a good thing to point out now that AIA is in the situation to develop if the price is right. The hillbillies that managed to make a windfall from grim determination, and being the example of extreme buy and hold finally got their pay off and now AIA can start to develop at long last. It was the rate rises that did it in the end.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/89556754/McIvor-farm-sold-to-Auckland-International-Airport-after-30-year-standoff

[Bluedog]

Finally, a post by a practical investor. I'm in Maine, US. I have loved AIA over the last few years. AIA was the 1st foreign security I bought when I started international investing. Being so far from my investment it's been very difficult to get solid & current information. Please check my last post. Until your post, I was going exit this forum. Although it was your 1st post, it encouraged me to hang in and buy in to AIA again. Question is when. I'm desperately looking for a NZ'der to exchange thoughts. Frankly, this forum has been mostly unhelpful. Give me more of your thinking & I'll be happy to offer any info my graying hair can provide. I only invest in NZ, Australia, Singapore, Canada, & Norway. All selected for political stability.
Luckyduck@metrocast.net

[Bjauck]

Finally, a post by a practical investor. I'm in Maine, US. I have loved AIA over the last few years. AIA was the 1st foreign security I bought when I started international investing. Being so far from my investment it's been very difficult to get solid & current information. Please check my last post. Until your post, I was going exit this forum. Although it was your 1st post, it encouraged me to hang in and buy in to AIA again. Question is when. I'm desperately looking for a NZ'der to exchange thoughts. Frankly, this forum has been mostly unhelpful. Give me more of your thinking & I'll be happy to offer any info my graying hair can provide. I only invest in NZ, Australia, Singapore, Canada, & Norway. All selected for political stability.
Luckyduck@metrocast.net There are plenty of interesting posters on this forum. When you converse with the natives of a country you need to understand their culture too. Sarcasm plays a big part in NZ and Aussie (& UK and Irish) discourse. Similarly I imagine a Norwegian public forum would have a different culture and language.

[macduffy]

Finally, a post by a practical investor. I'm in Maine, US. I have loved AIA over the last few years. AIA was the 1st foreign security I bought when I started international investing. Being so far from my investment it's been very difficult to get solid & current information. Please check my last post. Until your post, I was going exit this forum. Although it was your 1st post, it encouraged me to hang in and buy in to AIA again. Question is when. I'm desperately looking for a NZ'der to exchange thoughts. Frankly, this forum has been mostly unhelpful. Give me more of your thinking & I'll be happy to offer any info my graying hair can provide. I only invest in NZ, Australia, Singapore, Canada, & Norway. All selected for political stability.
Luckyduck@metrocast.net

I'm not sure what you're looking for, Bluedog. NZ is experiencing many of the problems of rapid - too rapid? - growth, both population-wise, for several reasons but primarily our comparatively good economy which draws ex-pat Kiwis back home and discourages our usual migration to Australia - and tourism-wise, again for several reasons. So for the meantime there's a lot of catching up to do in providing infrastructure, particularly transport congestion in places, and housing, before these problems get any bigger. Meanwhile, AIA is doing very well alhough it struggles at times to handle the volume of business. Like all successful airport businesses it's as much a property play as it is an airport. I've been invested there since the IPO and happy to continue to hold, despite its high valuation on most metrics.

Cheers.

[Blackrose]

Hi BD -

Well thanks for the kind words re wanting to stay on this forum - but will all forums you will get - people really. The kiwi way is to lower your expectations and then some haha.

Look - AIA is one of the few companies that are large enough to list on the NZX. It's around NZ's largest air port, it has the long term and short term car park leasing around it and has enough room to expand. NZ is going through a massive immigration influx at the moment.

However Auckland has massive issues in regards to a number of things. Firstly it is in the grips of an absolute cow of a housing bubble. Much like Vancouver, areas of South California, Melbourne, Sydney, - Auckland is in the grips of the most unaffordable realty bubble pumped up by some Chinese investors looking to launder money, some speculators that have flip houses for profit and a majority of owners that have been binging on cheap debt, buying to speculate on capital gains. With rising interest rates these CGs will go backwards. This has been going on for a good 17 years or so. It is cheaper to buy in Dubai rather than some areas of Auckland. Also people are trying to pretend it's not a bubble. But it is. Anyway. Auckland rains alot, there is traffic jams and infrastructure issues and it's a busy sprawl. Since the Whenuapai air port idea was scrapped so it could be turned in to housing- Auckland effectively doesn't have a 2nd option for an airport.

Anyway - other factors to consider. About 1 hours south of Auckland is Hamilton. If you stopped there, that's where over 51% of the population that is resident in NZ lives. AIA is the closest domestic and international terminal for about half the population. It is also the main area of cargo - with exception of Tauranga (A good company to look at is POT) and Christchurch harbors. Also factor in that 20% of Kiwis also live in Australia - making AIA a very busy airport indeed.

So you might be convinced by these two factors on their own, so let's look at some numbers.

Made $ 217 mil net profit last year, Forcast forward PE of 27.5 over 24m, Last actual gross yield 3.6%, Some analysts have a sell rating on it, a estimated price target around $6.08 - Currently trading at $6.70 (today 8/4)

IMHO this share is the one you want to have as a starter share. It's not going to set the world on fire, it's a steady dividend share, it's a share that is made for the buy and hold frame work of about 5 years or so and ideal for the slow growth steady as she goes crowd. It also is what it says it is on the can, it's a mid sized airport that processes luggage, people and cargo to NZ. It is not some fractional banking system hinged on a hedge fund that is betting in increments on the certainty of a IPO based around a patent or potential business plan. It's an airport.

So - I guess it's where your risk appetite is really. So I hope that's shed some more light on what AIA is and what it isn't. I also will add that I am not a financial advisor - I'm just a fairly content investor.

[ratkin]

Look - AIA is one of the few companies that are large enough to list on the NZX. It's around NZ's largest air port, it has the long term and short term car park leasing around it and has enough room to expand. NZ is going through a massive immigration influx at the moment.


LOOK, it is bad enough having to hear that awful expression, without seeing it written in print.

[Blackrose]

What bit is causing the offense ?

Sorry Mr Rat but... what bit is factually incorrect?

[Marilyn Munroe]

The Sydney Airport Corporation have decided not to exercise their option to build a second Sydney Airport in the west at Badgerys Creek.

I understand the Underarm Bowlers Federal Government will build the runway and terminal then flog them off.

A future opportunity for AIA?

Booop boop de do
Marilyn

[Bjauck]

What bit is causing the offense ?

Sorry Mr Rat but... what bit is factually incorrect? I agree with your summary. I imagine it was the tautology and not the content to which ratkin objected.

[macduffy]

Auckland Council economist floats the idea of a sale of the Coumcil's stake in AIA.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11862774

Will probably come out this afternoon with "On the other hand......."

;)

[Blackrose]

I think this is a great hold and grow stock.

[kiwichick]

I've been looking into getting into this stock for this reason. However, it does seem to be a bit more volatile than that other big hold-and-grow stock - Port of Tauranga. Looking over the charts, I see that AIA suffered a decline when the proverbial hit fan in 2008, but POT appears to have remained unscathed. Anyone have any idea how much AIA's profit relies on our current high migration rate and how a slow down might affect future profits?

[macduffy]

I don't know the answer to that one, kiwichick, but I'm pretty sure that tourism, the big majority of which flies into and out of Auckland, is a much bigger factor than the migration rate.

Disc: Holding AIA - since the IPO - for steady growth.

:)

[arc]

I've been looking into getting into this stock for this reason. However, it does seem to be a bit more volatile than that other big hold-and-grow stock - Port of Tauranga. Looking over the charts, I see that AIA suffered a decline when the proverbial hit fan in 2008, but POT appears to have remained unscathed. Anyone have any idea how much AIA's profit relies on our current high migration rate and how a slow down might affect future profits?

I always look VERY closely at the present price and what has happened during the last year, 2 year, 3 year. and then the overview of 5+ years. To me AIA appears to have stalled from the beginning of 2016, it may be just temporary or not ?. I do have a small holding but that was from late 2015. Having said that, the overall underlying trend is still "positive" for both AIA and POT, which you most likely already knew.

The future is never certain so it also depends on if you get freaked out when you buy today and 3 months from now it tanks by 60 or 80 cents (and then rises again afterwards... it better !!).

OR hold Both... hedge your bets by going both ways.

Edit: Just having another look at AIA it seems the $7 range has been acting as an emotive cyclical peak.. ??

Have a browse through their Announcements on the NZX.com site.

[value_investor]

A lot of press in the news considering a few things. Good to see movement finally on the second runway finally.

The share price has indeed stayed around the $7 mark for the last year, except for a few gains and losses. The PE is just very high and despite the good news rolling on for the company, its really difficult for it to climb at that valuation. Growth is a fantastic thing but additional investment has to keep up at the same pace. Sometimes that can be seen stagnation in the market. Still a decent long term hold but the juice has lost its bubbles a little bit.

[Lewylewylewy]

Agree completely. I see this share as a low risk for a retirees portfolio.

[value_investor]

No comments on the recent result huh?
I'll bite with my thoughts.

- Revenue up 9.7% is impressive with growth over all revenue generating areas. 13.8% in the aeronautical space mainly driven by the double digit passenger growth. More flights being put on by Air NZ, and the growth of the international market pleasing for the next FY.

- The mantra of 1m a day being spent is still going with AIA adding more projects than they had this time last year. Good to see a lot of long term ambitions now being written down as goals from the team. AIA not looking to sit still while the growth is happening and the cheap money is available. These projects are very complicated however, and the market will turn in the next 5 FY's.

- AIA are starting to capitalise on diversification through their associate investments. A 25% growth in profit from these a highlight, as well as future plans to possibly increase stakes. Queenstown airport could be one to look out for in future.

- Guidance is very low for the next FY, in the low single digit figures. Normally, they do give a very conservative guidance but this is much lower than past years. Blamed mostly on the aeronautical pricing model going forward.

The market reacted very softly to this one. The PE has gone through a significant re-rating from about 33-35 to now sitting at 24. You're still paying a premium for this one considering the returns are far in the future for now, that paired with the high capital expenditure is the reason for its fall (as well as already being overvalued of course). However, the PE falling even more would make this one a buy for me. Still a bit high on valuation but we're getting there before i'd jump in again.

[macduffy]

The pipeline issue will get sorted and AIA will be good buying in due course. But the downtrend started about a month ago, about the time of the profit announcement - and that needs to reverse before it gets my serious attention.

:cool:

[Jonboyz]

What do you see as a good price to buy in given that this will blow over in a couple of months?

[macduffy]

What do you see as a good price to buy in given that this will blow over in a couple of months?

I wouldn't hazard a guess. Evidence that the downtrend has reversed would be my buy signal.

[macduffy]

What do you class as evidence

Consolidation of the very recent SP turnaround and the RSI breaking through the 50 barrier. My TA is very basic!

[peat]

I had a look at this the other night and found one pattern that I thought was interesting and indicative.
It does however have the bearish fall from 7.75 to fight against so there could be a bit of interesting tension before/if the bullish pattern takes hold.9192
Fundamentally , who wouldnt love a monopoly

[tobo]

trend still down, but slowing? Touched 90MA
9255

[RupertBear]

trend still down, but slowing? Touched 90MA
9255

Yes I have been tempted to buy a few at this price but yes it still appears to trending down so I am still watching.....and dithering ;)

[gbogo]

Looks to me from that chart that there is too much overhead at $6.60 and then $6.80. If you want to buy it, wait for a couple of bounces of $6.00 area.

[Justin]

Why dropped sharply today?

[kiora]

Why dropped sharply today?

B/c spending $1.8 b.Uncertainty could be more,cost overuns?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11937023

[peat]

B/c spending $1.8 b.Uncertainty could be more,cost overuns?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11937023

but this has been known for some time....

and in any case I cant see that it has dropped today at all.
It closed at 6.23 yesterday , opened at 6.25 and has traded between 6:30 and 6:23 today, hardly a sharp drop if a drop at all.

I think its offering some reasonable (relative) value again

[Beagle]

but this has been known for some time....

and in any case I cant see that it has dropped today at all.
It closed at 6.23 yesterday , opened at 6.25 and has traded between 6:30 and 6:23 today, hardly a sharp drop if a drop at all.

I think its offering some reasonable (relative) value again

Maybe...but that's a lot to spend in 5 years and a couple of little chirps I heard from different birdie's in the last few weeks pricked the hounds ear's right up.
Birdie 1 - Very reliable birdie this one and well known to the hound in a professional capacity - AIA are looking to build another runway about 100m northwest of the existing one or realign the existing one...whatever the case may be but the flightpath is definitely changing in about a decade....not sure if that's public knowledge of not as I don't follow AIA.
Another birdie of unknown credibility, (hasn't chirped before) tells me a certain company with widespread aviation interests has been making some interesting land acquisitions around a certain west Auckland suburb that already has a runway.
Then there's the fact that Auckland City Council are very close to maxing out their debt ratio's if they want to maintain a good credit rating so how are they going to pay for all the infrastructure...hmmm a certain large holding in AIA springs readily to mind.
Disc: Don't own, (I think their PE is FAR too high for the modest growth, huge capex, regulatory and stock overhang risks) but then again I have probably been listening too much to budgie's and should trust the sense of smell of my own nose more.

[mondograss]

The second runway is a well known factor at AIA, they've been plugging away on that piece of work for ages now.

Whenuapai as a second Auckland airport is a pipe dream and will never happen, particularly now they've built up Hobsonville and done the Waterview connection.

[Beagle]

Fair enough on the second runway thing mate, as I said, its not a stock I follow but I doubt that other company would be throwing millions of dollars around just for the rent they can get from the Whenuapai houses.

[mondograss]

More likely they're looking for the next land development to follow Hobsonville and possibly taking a punt that one day the Air Force will decide that Whenuapai is surplus and will get sold off. But in no uncertain terms the idea of a second Auckland airport at Whenuapai was well and truly shot down in flames the last time the debate was had, and the business case has only got worse since.

[Jay]

Agree mondo... Yes 2nd runway has been mentioned as a definite not that long ago after talking about it for years and my understanding was the a second airport was not on the runway (pun intended) anytime soon from what I have heard and read

[Beagle]

Clarifying the budgie speak...the little budgie didn't say it was AIA rumored to be buying land around Whenuapai...I can't say any more because I can't vouch for the reliability of what is just a rumor. I will keep my snout very close to the ground out there and do some more sniffing around...

[mondograss]

Clarifying the budgie speak...the little budgie didn't say it was AIA rumored to be buying land around Whenuapai...I can't say any more because I can't vouch for the reliability of what is just a rumor. I will keep my snout very close to the ground out there and do some more sniffing around...

I didn't think it was. But you did mention it was someone with widespread aviation interests which implies it's someone expecting to make use of Whenuapai as an airport. Any more information would be interesting as to what precisely they might be up to, but I don't see the second Auckland airport scenario happening and I can't think of a particularly credible alternative.

[minimoke]

M
Another birdie of unknown credibility, (hasn't chirped before) tells me a certain company with widespread aviation interests has been making some interesting land acquisitions around a certain west Auckland suburb that already has a runway..
Possibly to do more with Affordable Housing and infrastructure. This govt has got to find a lot of land to quickly build a lot of houses. Those houses will need support and that support will need land.

[mondograss]

Possibly to do more with Affordable Housing and infrastructure. This govt has got to find a lot of land to quickly build a lot of houses. Those houses will need support and that support will need land.

Yes, I agree, I think someone has looked at Hobsonville, figures the new Govt will replicate that model and is doing a bit of land banking in the vicinity.

[minimoke]

I didn't think it was. But you did mention it was someone with widespread aviation interests which implies it's someone expecting to make use of Whenuapai as an airport. Any more information would be interesting as to what precisely they might be up to, but I don't see the second Auckland airport scenario happening and I can't think of a particularly credible alternative.Whenuapai will NOT be an airport. Dont people read the news. Labour has just committed to enormous infrastructure developments with light rail going to existing Auckland Airport. You don't invest that kind of money to not have that investment fully utilised (Disc - I know I am talking a Labour / NZ first coalition here so anything is possible;) ((where did that smily face thingy come from?)

[peat]

(I think their PE is FAR too high for the modest growth, huge capex, regulatory and stock overhang risks)
always interested in your comments

[value_investor]

Why dropped sharply today?

A few reasons for the recent drop and the stagnation in the past few months. I'm actually surprised it hasn't gone down more.

- Very high PE relative to the earnings announcement
- The plans of the new govt ie. Light rail to the Airport which will affect parking revenues if implemented
- Very high construction spend, a lot can go wrong with these types of projects and budget blow outs can happen very easily (See FBU)
- Very complex projects in terms of infrastructure. Building runways, hotels etc aren't easy and rarely happen in the time frames you would like them too.

I thought this would be in the 5s by now. Given the very low passenger growth and the issues at the airport with the fuel shortage last month. Guidance from management indicates single digit growth in earnings but I guess we are in the middle of this crazy bull market, so everything is overvalued.

[Beagle]

Good post value investor and good luck to AIA with getting attractively priced construction contracts...I suspect FBU will have a completely new way of pricing these sort of major construction projects in the future.
From a TA point of view the shares have now established a clear downtrend. One wonder if the exorbitant car park charges and the way they have been ratcheted up over the years (generating past profit growth) might come in for some regulatory oversight and then there's AIR and other airlines who have formed an action group to lobby against excessive landing charges. Quite a few airlines have rationalized their recently added routes here too over the last six months.
Headwinds strengthening anyone ?

[Subway]

A few reasons for the recent drop and the stagnation in the past few months. I'm actually surprised it hasn't gone down more.

- Very high PE relative to the earnings announcement
- The plans of the new govt ie. Light rail to the Airport which will affect parking revenues if implemented
- Very high construction spend, a lot can go wrong with these types of projects and budget blow outs can happen very easily (See FBU)
- Very complex projects in terms of infrastructure. Building runways, hotels etc aren't easy and rarely happen in the time frames you would like them too.

I thought this would be in the 5s by now. Given the very low passenger growth and the issues at the airport with the fuel shortage last month. Guidance from management indicates single digit growth in earnings but I guess we are in the middle of this crazy bull market, so everything is overvalued.

I'd think the fact that Emirates have all but pulled out of Auckland now is the elephant in the room. The whole point of the extended terminal was to provide more a380 stands.

Also, I stand by my prediction that the second runway will never get built.

[peat]

Also, I stand by my prediction that the second runway will never get built.

you could be right

Rodney sees a link between immigration and tourism

Will the government's immigration cuts pose a threat to tourism?

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/TourismThreatOct17.pdf.

[value_investor]

Good post value investor and good luck to AIA with getting attractively priced construction contracts...I suspect FBU will have a completely new way of pricing these sort of major construction projects in the future.
From a TA point of view the shares have now established a clear downtrend. One wonder if the exorbitant car park charges and the way they have been ratcheted up over the years (generating past profit growth) might come in for some regulatory oversight and then there's AIR and other airlines who have formed an action group to lobby against excessive landing charges. Quite a few airlines have rationalized their recently added routes here too over the last six months.
Headwinds strengthening anyone ?

Just to be clear though because my post above looks very negative. I still think the company has strong fundamentals and that the company is still well managed even with the headwinds. Its just overvalued and there is just better buying, when the prices stablise at hopefully in the mid to high fives.