BLT - Blis Technologies

[Nigel]

I'm keen to hear from someone who was there about the general sentiment, more information about the capital raising and what came up in question time.

From the announcement, everything appears on track. As said earlier, it makes you question the motives behind 'the world is ending' tone of the announcement a few months ago (which happened to be just prior to conversion of the pref shares!).

[simla]

The appointment of Alan McConnon to BFF seems like interesting news. This is presumably the same man. http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=11901488 "He has experience in consultancy and marketing in Australia, South America, Asia and the Middle East. He led the exporting activities for Australasian Food Holdings group into Asia, Japan and other world markets."

You wouldn't ask a man of his experience to go there if you didn't have interesting plans for BFF, I would have thought. Are we to see ice cream exports maybe? Don't know, but might be interesting to keep on eye on.

[simla]

"Legal opinion shows K12 & M18 as Not Novel, allowing European sales, Jul 2012." (p5, AGM presentation) That could be pretty good news. The company has said, "The wider European market represents a significant opportunity for the Company with the introduction of the BLIS K12 TM and BLIS M18 TM ingredients into new products." (p10, last report).

As I read the European laws, you need regulatory approval to get going but the enforcement of the laws is then up to each country, and some of the governments have blatantly said they have no intention of trying to kill off their huge food market. So Blis having a legal opinion saying that they're all go is probably the end of the matter as I undertand it (but I could be wrong.)

If so, Blis basically just announced they have got the equivalent of GRAS in Europe for both K12 and M18. That's no small statement if so. (Or maybe just for dietary supplements, but my understanding is that they're the same thing in Europe, but not sure.) And if that's the case, we might see a food product in Europe faster than the US? Anyone have a more certain understanding of any of that?

[simla]

It seems pretty obvious that the company has spent the last 18 months pushing really hard to restore sales. The cash cost of doing so last year was dramatic (distributor change, ice cream purchase) but it looks pretty clear to me that it's paying off. Ice cream sales around NZ are looking pretty promising, and an able person as the new chairman there. Internet sales picking up, and the likes on facebook just keep going up. Stratum are looking like a good bet and active. GRAS in the US and now seemingly in Europe, as well as China. Stronger support from some of the manufacturers it seems.

All of this builds on what they're spent some years assembling, but you sense an extra strength to the push over the last 18 months in response to the sagging sales of that time. All of which is good from the point of view of shareholders. I hope we don't see any more drama in the sharemarket, but in essence I've finally made it back to "optimistic". I haven't been there for almost two years, so I'm feeling pretty happy now.

I am very happy to thank the company for all it's efforts, once again. The dramas of this year have certainly been interesting for us as shareholders, but I have a strong sense here that Blis may have turned the final corner. I certainly hope so, but I am anyway happy to have arrived back at Optimistic.

Well done to all concerned.

[neopoleII]

well...... a bit of good news, and it seems the shareholders have voted and the board is listening.
that is good. blt is not out of the woods yet, but it seems they have found a compass and are on the right track now. can they make it out of the woods?... time will tell..... if they do.... i might ..... groan... invest some hard cash and ride the sp up to my break even of 23cents.
my buy in would be 5 cents per share..... to get to that, there has to be some good news related to sales and "profits".
it does seem .... as simla has said....... that management is trying hard to save this co.
but i need to see a real turn around before i invest more cash.
i think once or if the turn around happens.... things will move very fast from that point.
with the loss that im carrying now im way to shy to invest again at this stage, but im sure there a lots out there that a willing to have a punt at this point.... and start the momentum.

we hope..........

[emearg]

I'm glad resolution 5 failed.


Not sure about all the optimism from the presentation though? Not much new in the presentation was there?


Here is the new stuff and an opinion as I couldn't resist.


Page 2:
Approval in Europe. Good :)
Sales turning around. Yes we knew that but as they don't quantify them it isn't very meaningful


Page 3:
Nothing new


Page 4:
Television commercials. We knew that, and frankly NZ is so small it isn't enough to turn the profit/loss situation around.
Nothing else was new or meaningful


Page 5:
Growing sales in Europe. That sounds good. Maybe the approval they have, is allowing sales rather than thinking about selling into Europe?


Page 6:
Europe mentioned again. Sales started this month it seems. Good!
Nothing else was new.


Page 7:
BFF strategic intent is international markets. Good!
Products into food service channels. Good!
Selling well. Good but not quantified so not very meaningful.
New guy as chairman. Not sure this is necessary considering the size of BFF and the financial situation Blis is in.


Page 8:
Evaluating licensing proposals? Pity there isn't any detail!
Get GRAS for M18. Good!
Build sales in Europe.


Basically a real lack of detail. Especially around sales. No financial update? Shocking!


Did anybody attend?


Do we have to wait until late November for the half year report to get any quality information from Blis?

[emearg]

It seems pretty obvious that the company has spent the last 18 months pushing really hard to restore sales. The cash cost of doing so last year was dramatic (distributor change, ice cream purchase) but it looks pretty clear to me that it's paying off.

I'm lost. What makes it so clear?

[simla]

The imminent cash flow situation is much improved as I read it: Stratum, ice cream, Europe, probably China. (a) Things don't happen by themselves. (b) They spent a lot of cash getting to this position. (c) What else could they possibly have been meaning to do?

"Growing sales in Europe. That sounds good. Maybe the approval they have, is allowing sales rather than thinking about selling into Europe?"

Sometimes thing change quickly and it is hard to believe. When Blis went into the US, several hundred thousand in revenue resulted that year. Don't you think this could be more than "sounds good", but instead maybe "sounds imminent"?

"New guy as chairman. Not sure this is necessary considering the size of BFF and the financial situation Blis is in." Did you read about this guy? You don't ask someone like that in if you have no work for them to do.

By the way, did anybody notice that the last report simply said that China would take "Blis K12 products" (p9). It also said that NZPR was the "commericalisation partner" in China. (p8) And the AGM presentation said "infrastructure in China to market BLIS products" (p5). No mention of which products in particular. Ice cream? The last report said China had approved of Blis K12 "as a food ingredient" (p5). Interesting to watch anyway.

Anyway, I'm not trying to talk anyone into anything. Just saying what I see. I see a whole lot more stability than we've had for the last couple of years, or even had last week when we knew not about the delisting or the issue or Europe. Last November we agreed the business development was great but we needed cash flow to come together. Yesterday implied quite a bit about cashflow, but said nothing specific, as you say.

[emearg]

The imminent cash flow situation is much improved as I read it: Stratum, ice cream, Europe, probably China. (a) Things don't happen by themselves. (b) They spent a lot of cash getting to this position. (c) What else could they possibly have been meaning to do?

I hope you're right!



"New guy as chairman. Not sure this is necessary considering the size of BFF and the financial situation Blis is in." Did you read about this guy? You don't ask someone like that in if you have no work for them to do.

Yes plenty to do but not much money to pay for it. No point having good people if you can't afford them.



I see a whole lot more stability than we've had for the last couple of years, or even had last week when we knew not about the delisting or the issue or Europe. Last November we agreed the business development was great but we needed cash flow to come together. Yesterday implied quite a bit about cashflow, but said nothing specific, as you say.

I won't see more stability until they announce they have enough funds to stay afloat. This may be from raising more capital, licensing, or increased sales.

[simla]

We'll see, Emearg.

I said I would be ramping down after the AGM, and guess what, that's now. Thanks for your support over the years, and I'll still post from time to time I guess.

I feel Blis's fortunes suddenly re-emerged as looking good after that AGM presentation, as I've discussed above, so that's good. I'll certainly be looking forward to the November report with interest. Ciao.

[fungus pudding]

We'll see, Emearg.

I said I would be ramping down after the AGM, and guess what, that's now. Thanks for your support over the years, and I'll still post from time to time I guess.



I hope so. This thread has been possibly the most intiguing saga on the entire world wide web.

[Nigel]

I hope so. This thread has been possibly the most intiguing saga on the entire world wide web.

That's brilliant :) (and possibly true)


Shareprice up to 0.015 this morning and sellers at 0.015 very thin (less than $500). Next offer is at 0.019 then 0.026. If someone wants to get in we could see a quick lift in shareprice!

[Oman]

It's probably time to close this thread now. We don't want to spoil a good story with an ending. Just leave it here and let readers guess what happens next.

Theone. Where are you? It's time for closure!

Bye all. Oman

[fungus pudding]

It's probably time to close this thread now. We don't want to spoil a good story with an ending. Just leave it here and let readers guess what happens next.

Theone. Where are you? It's time for closure!

Bye all. Oman


Don't be a spoilsport. It's a great source of entertainment.

[winner69]

Don't be a spoilsport. It's a great source of entertainment.

And Balance would say researchers (academics of course) a great source of insights into what makes investors tick .... or more specifically what makes an investor stay with a sinking ship.

After all the same academics lost a good source of info when the Pike thread finally came to an end

[simla]

It's probably time to close this thread now. We don't want to spoil a good story with an ending.

The Blis story doesn't stop just because I'm not doing regular posts! I'm sorry if I've shocked anyone, but I did forewarn a couple of months ago that I was stopping. I'm sorry if anyone feels I haven't finished a conversation with them, but I have got a life to lead. I feel I have been pretty generous with my time. This thread will get on just fine without me making regular posts.


...what makes an investor stay with a sinking ship.

I don't know why you seem so determined for the Blis story to fail. But you are quite aware that the revenue has only been off track for about 18 months, and my reading of the AGM was that they have successfully got it back on the road now. No end of companies have been through that before. (And only one company ended with the company's main asset blowing up, so that's hardly a relevant comparison.)


Anyone who feels this story ends in failure hasn't read the company releases in enough detail in my opinion. I'm optimistic. However, time will tell, as always.

[fungus pudding]

I'm optimistic.

We'd noticed.

[Nigel]

Post-AGM write-up in the Otago Daily Times yesterday... nothing we didn't know already.
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/219392/loss-making-blis-pushes-four-key-strategies

Blis Technologies has outlined a "challenging year" that it attributes to changing distributors and obtaining regulatory approval in the United States, China and Europe.

In a presentation to shareholders at the recent annual meeting, chief executive Barry Richardson said the need to build a new distribution relationship meant sales remained "very disappointing", but that was now turning around.

In May, the Dunedin biotech company announced it had posted its eighth consecutive loss - a $1.7 million deficit for the year ending March 31.

The company's primary business focus was ingredient sales.

It now had many delivery systems for dietary supplement and food applications, including lozenges, gum, powders, ice-cream and yoghurt, and, increasingly, more clinical and scientific support for its products which was essential for business success, Dr Richardson said.

It continued to advance its business based on four key strategies - broadening its applications for Blis oral probiotics (K12 and M18), achieving regulatory approvals to allow sales in key markets, strengthening its intellectual property position, and forging key international partnerships.

Future priorities included a capital raising process initiated in March, obtaining various regulatory approvals, and building ingredient sales in North America, Europe, Israel and Asia.

Blis Functional Foods was formed to market the existing Gourmet Ice-Cream Company products and K12 functional foods based on ice-cream and yoghurt, following the acquisition of the Dunedin-based Gourmet firm last year.

Strategic intent was in international markets while the current New Zealand strategy was building South Island sales, as well as in the north, particularly Wellington and Auckland.

Oral probiotic ice-cream was selling well, he said.

[blissfool]

No mention in this article about new product Q24 does anyone know what this is all about?

[Nigel]

No mention in this article about new product Q24 does anyone know what this is all about?

The only references to Q24 I can find in previous announcements are:

"In terms of strategic opportunities there are two particular applications where the Company is either working with potential or seeking new partners. These are the topical applications involving the Micrococcus luteus organism (Q24) which has been patented by the Company and animal health applications for K12, especially the companion animal sector where there are significant market opportunities."
[2011 annual report, page 8]

"The probiotic ingredients which are to be marketed by Stratum Nutrition, includes BLIS K12, BLIS M18 and later, BLIS Q24 (still in development). BLIS Q24 is a novel strain of Micrococcus luteus for topical applications."
[Blis NZX announcement 23 Nov 2011, titled "BLIS K12 now Approved for Sale in China"]

"Our BLIS Q24 patent has been granted in Australia and China, and is under examination in a number of jurisdictions."
[2012 annual report, page 10]

We really need to hear from someone who attended the AGM to hear if there was any discussion around Q24 and its benefits. Anyone? Anyone??

[emearg]

No mention in this article about new product Q24 does anyone know what this is all about?

It has been mentioned several times over the years. It is aimed at treating Acne. Not much else is known to us non science types...

[Nigel]

Here's an abstract to some of Professor Tagg's 2012 research on Q24 - http://otago.ourarchive.ac.nz/handle/10523/2415

I've copied the last paragraph here for anyone who can't be bothered clicking through for the whole abstract:
These findings provide encouraging evidence for the potential probiotic application of M. luteus Q24 to the prevention of cutaneous membrane infection. Of particular interest is the relatively high susceptibility of S. aureus strains to the M. luteus Q24 inhibitory compound(s). A beneficial public health application would be to assess the efficacy of M. luteus Q24 against methicillin resistant variants of S. aureus (MRSA), with the objective of colonising hospital personnel with M. luteus Q24 to decrease S. aureus carriage. Other important potential targets for M. luteus Q24 control are Propionibacterium spp., key aetiological agents of acne.

[Nigel]

Is anyone into TA here? Not sure how well it applies to this stock, but I do notice the 10 day moving average passed through the 30 day a couple of weeks back, and the 30 day moving average is now crossing the 60 day. The shareprice obviously has broken through all of these. I'm not a TA guru but surely these are good signs!

[blissfool]

Is anyone into TA here? Not sure how well it applies to this stock, but I do notice the 10 day moving average passed through the 30 day a couple of weeks back, and the 30 day moving average is now crossing the 60 day. The shareprice obviously has broken through all of these. I'm not a TA guru but surely these are good signs!

HI Nigel
Can you elaborate on you comments for an Amatuer like myself, maybe even a wesite link

Thanks

[Nigel]

HI Nigel
Can you elaborate on you comments for an Amatuer like myself, maybe even a wesite link

Thanks

I'd better start with a disclaimer that I am in no way a financial advisor and you should always take opinions or info shared on sites like this with a degree of caution. I can elaborate on my comments, but - as I suggested - I'm not a guru on this stuff, so others should feel free to chip in as required.

As I understand it, moving averages simply average out the closing share price of a stock for a set number of days. For example, a 10 day moving average as at a particular date shows the average share price of the last 10 days. As it's a moving indicator, the following day, the 'oldest' share price data (from 10 days ago) drops off and is replaced by the closing price for the current day. Essentially, the moving average smooths out the share price and makes trends more obvious. A shorter term moving average like a 5 day or 10 day will be a bit more 'up and down' than a longer term average e.g. 30, 60, 120, 200 day - which will appear a lot smoother.

According to Technical Analysis, the way that moving averages intersect can provide buy or sell signals. When a shorter term averages rises up through a longer term average, it suggests a buy signal. When a shorter term moving average goes down through a longer term one, then that suggests a sell. It will never be an exact science, but a lot of people consider this stuff when timing their trades.

The following site may be of use: http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/how-to-use-multiple-moving-averages-on-a-trading-c.html

I had noticed that recent share price movements for BLT have caused some shorter term moving averages to cross up through longer term averages - some may see this as a buy signal.

As always, do your own research and maybe consult a financial advisor for more accurate descriptions or advice.

[pierre]

"REL: 1101 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited

FORECAST: BLT: Revision of FY 2013 Guidance and SPP and Placement

31 August 2012
BLT Revises FY2013 Guidance and Announces Share Purchase Plan and Placement
Intention
The Board of BLIS Technologies Ltd advises that the Company has revised its
guidance for the financial year to 31 March 2013 to an operating deficit of
$1.3m from the $0.8m advised in March and reaffirmed at its AGM in late July."

...and another SPP coming too.

My wife often says "won't it be great when our BLT shares are worth $1.00 each."

I think I'll be happy if they stay worth 1 cent each after this news!

[simla]

a dozen pottles of icecream in a supermarket in Wellington

No, but the same in Auckland would be cheering.

This will need watching certainly. The events of the conversion, plus the world's general panic, may not have placed the company in the best position to do an issue. On the other hand, they're projecting forwards to 2014, which is encouraging.

I expect I'll be a starter and the success of this presumably boils down to how many other shareholders do so. Do we have the grit to rollup our sleeves once more? It's the usual Blis story ... again: big challenges, and yet the company always seems to survive them. One day the challanges will cease - for good reason or bad!

Personally I'd settle on a share price way less than a dollar if only we could trade it for some calm certainty. Well, Blis still isn't that sort of share. We hope it will be. It's probably up to us shareholders presently. I hope the cost of the issue documentation at least gives us a clearer idea of where things lie.

The obvious difficulty is making an issue at a low price. But that price is open to all and the main problem is surely one of dilution for people who don't participate. There is also the need to find enough cash, but the top 20 shareholders owned 65% of the company in the last report, and have an incentive to particpate surely. Interesting to watch though.

[THEONE]

Hi Simla its great to see your posts again, I tried to PM you a month or so ago but your mailbox is closed.

Interesting times ahead. I am a bit worried about dilution as I dont have the funds to purchase much.
Hopefully it will not be a Wellington Drive like rights issue (trading around 8 cents, rights at 1 cent)

At a guess I think Eion Edgar and the Board would be very keen to buy allot of shares at 1 cent. Fair enough we are all given the same opportunity.

I have lost allot of money on Blis shares, I agree you should never try to catch a falling knife. But basically I think the situation now is not much to lose, but allot to gain. Perhaps I am deluded but I still think Blis will be making profit of a couple of million in the next few years. Even the biggest critic of Blis could surely agree they have immense potential. The question is will they realise the potential.
Obviously the main thing lacking is Sales (ironically wellington Drive has plenty). With the right distrubutor and time surely this can be fixed.
Plus they have 2 products released with another getting ready Q24.

I contacted GIC about when ice cream will be available in Auckland. Apparently it will start becoming available after 3 September at some supermarkets.

[simla]

I contacted GIC about when ice cream will be available in Auckland. Apparently it will start becoming available after 3 September at some supermarkets.

That's brilliant. Thanks for that, TheOne. Auckland doubles their market size, and I have a feeling Gourmet will sell well in Auckland, both probiotic and otherwise. Sorry about the mailbox, but I just made the decision to change my commitment, and you can't do that in half measures.

It's very hard to know how to read that announcement. As with many of Blis's updates, it sounds like bad news on face value, and yet there isn't anything in it that is especially negative. As with all the announcements, we wait and find out.

As you say, a similiarity between Blis and WDT. Both doing the right things and both finding the market tough. I haven't got any WDT but I follow it with interest becasue I like what it stand for.

So, now it's time for some of you Aucklanders to let us know what you think of the ice cream!

[simla]

I wasn't here when Mr Shepherd resigned from the Board. Thank you for your many years of service to the company. We have been very lucky to have a Board that soldiers on at all times.

[THEONE]

New I think?
http://naturimedica.com/health-shop/supplements/blis-k12-60-lozenges/
http://www.hands-kyoto.com/k12%E8%A9%B3%E7%B4%B0/
http://www.biovirx.com.tw/?page_id=58

Very Interesting (about china partner)
http://www.hljtg.com/cgtg/gzdt/2011/03/6389.htm

[THEONE]

I am interested in reading the SPP. Hopefully it is full of detail on potential deals in pipeline etc. Otherwise it gives insiders a huge advantage when deciding whether to buy more shares. Also the strength of distributor eg China.
Especially with the share price being so low.

I am suprised that Comvita are not interested in taking a significant shareholding. Then distribute through their network surely that would be profitable. Or even New Image or A2 milk. Not sure if you can put k12 in milk though

Maybe some revenue forecasts etc? I remember reading many years ago 20 million revenue projection.

Allot has been spent on product development lately, surely there must be light at end of tunnel to do this.

If cannot break even all unnecessary development should be stopped and then wait for sales to occur. No point developing pipeline products if you cant sell what you have got.

[Nigel]

Very Interesting (about china partner)
http://www.hljtg.com/cgtg/gzdt/2011/03/6389.htm


Not sure if you were having a laugh, given that the page is in Chinese....
With my dodgy understanding of Chinese (picked up from the cartoons my kids watch), I think it's saying something along the lines of:

Harbin Boli Shi Biotechnology Co. Ltd.... also made a detailed introduction of the application and popularization of their new probiotic (Streptococcus salivarius K12) project. ... The bacterium has been available in New Zealand, Australia and the United States plus other countries for many years. The probiotics can be widely used as an additive in all kinds of dairy products, chewing gum and other food and health care products, toothpaste and other fields. Through the implementation of the project, they will increase the varieties of probiotics... and promote the sustainable development of the probiotics industry, playing a leading role. The project will cost 40 million, with profits of 800 million. However, the project is awaiting national approvals and does not have a wide range of applications. In addition, the lack of adequate funding for the expansion of production (is also a challenge).

I'm assuming that they're talking Chinese currency, so the CNY800mil is about NZ$158mil. Not bad it they can pull it off. (CNY40mil investment they mention is about NZ$8mil)

As others have said, there is massive upside potential to this whole thing (and of course significant risks!!). It's just a matter of the funding to be confirmed and some of these overseas markets/opportunities to take off.

Good luck!

disclaimer: translation above courtesy of Google. it probably contains errors. i'm too cheap to pay someone to translate it accurately so wouldn't suggest anyone takes it as gospel!

[neopoleII]

"The Board of BLIS Technologies Ltd advises that the Company has revised its
guidance for the financial year to 31 March 2013 to an operating deficit of
$1.3m from the $0.8m advised in March and reaffirmed at its AGM in late July."

"The decision by shareholders to maintain an NZX listing has also added to previously forecast compliance costs."

"It's very hard to know how to read that announcement. As with many of Blis's updates, it sounds like bad news on face value,"

"Otherwise it gives insiders a huge advantage when deciding whether to buy more shares."

"Very Interesting (about china partner)"

here is a selection of comments from above posts.
the way i read it....
the board and the very few top shareholders have tried to paint BLT with gloom lately, and the only good news comes from shareholders doing their own research on the net and finding very interesting and possibly positive news about BLT products.
we seem to have the board trying to convince regular shareholders to delist, under the guise of saving some money...... not mentioning the lack of notices when the sh holdings change dramatically.

to me this seems like the board is nothing but a ventriloquist doll with a hand up the bottom from very large shareholders.
i understand that the board has a big problem, and most of us shareholders are not willing to keep chucking endless cash at it..... except for some......
so does this mean that the big holders get to pull strings on the puppet?
if the big holders wants the company outright.... why not just make a stand in the market?
or is the shareholders knoodling the board to get the co under fair value with info that is not made public to the rest of the shareholders?

this is all an opinion only....... but to me it is starting to stink.

we used to have the board telling us that things are going really really well, and we are almost there..... and bought the placements......
now its endless doom from the board, while posters keep finding positive news.
and a very few are buying massive chunks of very cheap placement shares.

imagine if this china thing is real and it comes to fruition, while we have been reading all this negative stuff from the board?

we need full disclosure, positive, negative, forecast, their global strategy and potential liaisons.
like nestle several years ago. (and china no news on multi 0000000 numbers?)
or.... shut shop and disperse funds, or offer the full company up for sale with full disclosure.

the krap from the last couple of years has to stop..... im surprised its even legal?
or its "just" on the legal side.

ive been a holder for a very long time, and averaged down from a dollar to 20 something cents, and i regret this soooo much, to the point like most holders wont buy anymore till things turn positive.
but.... i'll fight to make sure that this co isnt taken over underhandedly morally.(we know legally the t's and I's are correct) too many folks got hurt to just walk away from this when it "seems" it could be turning.

all i say is, i based my views on what the board officially states, and what posters find on the internet regarding the spread of, and takeup of the products of BLT around the world..... disregarding actual sales.

and to me it doesnt add up, yet someone is buying big at placement time.

simla..... i hope you bought a big wednesday ticket today.....
with you at the helm of BLT, it would surely go forward.......

ok thats my monthly grumble..... feel better now. :-)

[fungus pudding]

I've often wondered what is different about Blis, from other probiotics on the market, e.g. Blackmores, and various probiotic ice-creams and yoghurts that have been around for years?
Where's the expert on this stuff?

[simla]

I don't think this is about the company, who are doing their best I'm sure, in very difficult times.

The share price is very low because pretty well all shareholders have refused to buy any more shares in the company for several long years, irrespective of the conversion. And most shareholders didn't give the company any cash at all last issue, so I can't feel too sorry for shareholders who are diluted by refusing to do so again this time. Of course, for some this will just be bad timing, and that is indeed bad luck. It's caught me by surprise too.

No doubt some would argue that shareholders have only been reacting to the company's situation. But I don't buy that. The company has continued to make strides every year for several year now, but most shareholders have refused to reward that with the slightest further backing. The company itself has boxed on regardless, thank goodness.

[fungus pudding]

I've often wondered what is different about Blis, from other probiotics on the market, e.g. Blackmores, and various probiotic ice-creams and yoghurts that have been around for years?
Where's the expert on this stuff?


I don't think this is about the company, who are doing their best I'm sure, in very difficult times.

The share price is very low because pretty well all shareholders have refused to buy any more shares in the company for several long years, irrespective of the conversion. And most shareholders didn't give the company any cash at all last issue, so I can't feel too sorry for shareholders who are diluted by refusing to do so again this time. Of course, for some this will just be bad timing, and that is indeed bad luck. It's caught me by surprise too.

No doubt some would argue that shareholders have only been reacting to the company's situation. But I don't buy that. The company has continued to make strides every year for several year now, but most shareholders have refused to reward that with the slightest further backing. The company itself has boxed on regardless, thank goodness.

So Simla, what's the answer to my questions in the previous post? You will obviously know, but I don't, and I have no idea how any potential customer would.

[simla]

The NZ ads for probiotics are very restrained by law. That's why none of them say exactly what they do. The probiotic community is livid about the restrictions all over the world. Not all have good research however. But Blis is extremely well resarched and proved. Blis K12 is an oral probiotic, and the basic thrust of it is in their slogan "gateway to our body's health." It''s all over the Blis websites if you want to know. All the other probiotics are for the gut and tend to be about digestion. (Hey, I don't want to post regularly! No more questions please!)

[fungus pudding]

The NZ ads for probiotics are very restrained by law. That's why none of them say exactly what they do. The probiotic community is livid about the restrictions all over the world. Not all have good research however. But Blis is extremely well resarched and proved. Blis K12 is an oral probiotic, and the basic thrust of it is in their slogan "gateway to our body's health." It''s all over the Blis websites if you want to know. All the other probiotics are for the gut and tend to be about digestion. (Hey, I don't want to post regularly! No more questions please!)

No more questions, that's fine. I don't think there are answers anyway. Blis proven? If it was their ads would scream it. As far as I can see its only claim to fame is that it is considered non-harmful.

[weasel]

It''s all over the Blis websites if you want to know.)

The website is a disgrace. This has been pointed out ad nauseum. It is one of the reasons they don't sell any. The BLIS management know and simply don't care.

[Nigel]

The website is a disgrace. This has been pointed out ad nauseum. It is one of the reasons they don't sell any. The BLIS management know and simply don't care.

What does it cost for a new e-commerce website? About $10k and then $50 a month hosting costs? Wouldn't exactly break the bank but would give such a different impression to potential customers. I do think that the existing website sends the wrong brand message about a company that has such a great product.

[simla]

With a share price of 0.7 cents, nobody is doing any trades. Now why would that be? Have they changed the laws of supply and demand recently? Or would a share price over 2 cents at least get some takers?

[fungus pudding]

With a share price of 0.7 cents, nobody is doing any trades. Now why would that be?

Overpriced?

[simla]

No, seriously though. You don't have to watch the market very hard to see that a few people are always quietly accumulating, and virtually nobody is ever selling. Yet the market price keeps getting set as if people are selling and not buying. And it generates very little traffic. That suggests to me that the price is plain wrong.

Perhaps if people altered their prices they might be very surprised to see what sort of market there was for Blis shares after all. People who trade cheap don't attract nearly as much interest as people who aim for a higher part of the market, whatever they're buying and selling - shares, phones, houses, whatever.

And I'm sure very few shareholders would think this low price is even marginally justified. Certainly I don't. Just my humble opinion, naturally. The market will do what it will.

[simla]

Yes, those sort of small trades go through from time to time, and I can only conclude they are technical adjustments of some balanced portfolio somewhere, as they make no real sense otherwise. I would say these small trades prove my point rather than disprove it.

[fungus pudding]

Yes, those sort of small trades go through from time to time, and I can only conclude they are technical adjustments of some balanced portfolio somewhere, as they make no real sense otherwise. I would say these small trades prove my point rather than disprove it.

If you want to prove your point, which I will add is the strangest logic I have ever encountered, then have a go. Put a few up at 50 cents, 20 cents, a dollar or whatever and show us how quickly they fly out the door.

[simla]

A thin market is necessarily dominated by just a few people, whose thoughts may never have faced healthy debate. Buying say 30% more shares cheaply now is nothing compared to the cost of lost compounded growth from lost funding opportunities. People just don't always get the implications of compounding. It's not just about future profit growth, but can also be about compounded lost future profits. Either can be large amounts of money.

[fungus pudding]

A thin market is necessarily dominated by just a few people, whose thoughts may never have faced healthy debate. Buying say 30% more shares cheaply now is nothing compared to the cost of lost compounded growth from lost funding opportunities. People just don't always get the implications of compounding. It's not just about future profit growth, but can also be about compounded lost future profits. Either can be large amounts of money.

Simla, have a look at the real worth of Blis's assets divided by the number of shares issued. I don't know the figures but I do know it's peanuts. Forget any value for intellectual property. So far they have not produced anything that sells in commercial quantities, and until they do, the IP is worthless. So even at 0.7 cps the shares are simply a gamble. That's why the price is what it is.

[simla]

the strangest logic I have ever encountered
Valuing a startup on its asset value? Blis's value is either zero because it won't succeed, or its hoped for future income (each investor's guess/logic) discounted by whatever factor each investor thinks is appropriate to the risk. In short, make up a figure, because there's no knowing now what it's worth. But the current bids and offers doesn't make sense to me under various imagined logical objectives for various hypothetical investors. Markets can be wrong you know!

[fungus pudding]

Valuing a startup on its asset value? Blis's value is either zero because it won't succeed, or its hoped for future income (each investor's guess/logic) discounted by whatever factor each investor thinks is appropriate to the risk. In short, make up a figure, because there's no knowing now what it's worth. But the current bids and offers doesn't make sense to me under various imagined logical objectives for various hypothetical investors. Markets can be wrong you know!

By strange logic I mean your claim that the shares aren't selling is because sellers aren't asking enough. The market is not wrong. Blis have had enought time to get off the ground - they haven't, and that means the downside, i.e. risk, is huge. And given the number of shares issued, the upside, if there is one, is negligible.

[simla]

Hey, cheer up, FP! Disaster actually very rarely happens in life. In fact I saw a study recently showing people massively underestimate the ability of other people to sort out problems.

Yes, Blis is not in the ideal position and so remains a risk. But the current strategy has only had about two years in the marketplace to come together, and very few new market initiatives come together in that time. And the upside is certainly still there, as the current share price is justified by a profit of just $280k at a PE of 12. (481m shares*$0.007 price/12 PE). Even a 30% dilution now just pushes that up to $360k.

We obviously hold different views, and that's healthy.

[fungus pudding]

Hey, cheer up, FP!
We obviously hold different views, and that's healthy.

No need to cheer up. There might be if I had Blis shares. :D


We certainly have different views on Blis. It's healthy for me. :) Not sure about thec shareholders. :(

[Chippie]

Almost missed this release?

BLT
12/09/2012 16:15
GENERAL

REL: 1615 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited

GENERAL: BLT: New Study confirms effectiveness of BLIS K12

New Study confirms effectiveness of BLIS K12

BLIS Technologies Ltd (NZX:BLT) announces the recent independent publication
by a Swiss research team at the University of Basel, evaluating the oral
cavity probiotic, BLIS K12(TM) for its ability to inhibit bacteria
responsible for the severe bad breath in the oral cavity (also known as
halitosis). The study entitled "Antimicrobial activity of Streptococcus
salivarius K12 on bacteria involved in oral malodour" has been published in
the international science journal, Archives of Oral Biology (2012).

This study confirms an earlier clinical study of 23 subjects by Dr J Burton
and co-workers, (published in the Journal of Applied Microbiology) where S.
salivarius K12 was shown to be effective at significantly reducing the levels
of sulphur-compound producing bacteria in the mouth, which are responsible
for chron
ic bad breath and halitosis.

It is estimated that around 49 million people in the United States alone,
worry "a lot" about bad breath and nearly 10 million live with bad breath,
which impacts their lives a moderate or severe amount. US consumers spent
over $US 1 billion on mouth fresheners, mouth washes and dental rinses in
2011 according to the market research company, Euromonitor.

BLIS K12 is a specific strain of S. salivarius; a species of beneficial
bacteria which is found naturally occurring in the mouth of healthy
individuals. In addition to being part of the dominant healthy species of the
mouth, this probiotic strain also secretes powerful antimicrobial molecules
called BLIS: Bacteriocin-Like-Inhibitory Substances to help provide a natural
long term protection from bad breath as well as support our oral immune
system's natural defenses.

The objective of the study at the University of Basel, Switzerland was to
investigate the antimicrobial activity of BLIS K12 against severa
l bacteria
involved in chronic and severe halitosis including such clinically relevant
strains as Solobacterium moorei, Atopobium parvulum and Eubacterium sulci.
The study results found that BLIS K12 could inhibit all tested bacteria
responsible for oral malodour. The authors concluded that this study further
supports the potential of BLIS K12 as a valuable candidate for inclusion in
therapies for halitosis sufferers and offers potential long-term support for
sufferers of this disease, through the direct inhibition of the responsible
malodor-causing bacteria.

"This research paper represents further evidence that the BLIS K12 probiotic
plays an important role in maintaining good oral health by protecting the
mouth against invading pathogens" said Dr Barry Richardson, Chief Executive
of BLIS Technologies. "We believe that the data in this model strongly points
to a beneficial effect in the human oral cavity and we expect further human
studies to confirm this effect."

[emearg]

Almost missed this release?

For those paying attention they would have known about this in late August when it was first announced. Perhaps Blis weren't among that group as it took them two weeks to tell the market...or perhaps they are playing games?

I saw this recently:
http://www.hijapan.info/eng/companylist/detail.php?exid=H12196761&page=index
Interesting that TradePia is showing off K12 in Japan. I would have expected Stratum to be doing this if anybody? They have been discussed on here briefly before as I recall.


I bought this last night. $2.99 for the Kindle. Is interesting reading so far.
http://www.realnatural.org/oral-probiotics/

[emearg]

New I think?
http://naturimedica.com/health-shop/supplements/blis-k12-60-lozenges/
http://www.hands-kyoto.com/k12%E8%A9%B3%E7%B4%B0/
http://www.biovirx.com.tw/?page_id=58

Very Interesting (about china partner)
http://www.hljtg.com/cgtg/gzdt/2011/03/6389.htm
Gonna take that last one with several grains of salt.

First two we had spotted before but the third is new.

[emearg]

Comments? At first sight, that would appear to mean that all the doom and gloom of the last few months has not amounted to anything other than a good buffeting for shareholders. In which case we appear to have a company fairly well placed for the coming year?

Apart from running out of money...

[emearg]

That's the $64,000 question, fungus pudding, and to my mind and for most consumers too there's not enough. And if there is a difference, then again this is a clear demonstration of the failing of the company to create a market for its product by educating consumers about its benefits.

Have you looked at the lids on the probiotic icecream. I suggest they communicate the benefits in easy to digest chunks without drowning potential customers in science. If people want more info there is always Google but lets face it most people don't/won't bother. The lozenges in NZ are selling surprisingly well considering the limited info on the bottles. Perhaps other advertising or recommendations from some chemists help?

Internationally resellers are doing their own thing to try to educate consumers. Some better than others IMHO and most focusing on slightly different things.

[emearg]

I've often wondered what is different about Blis, from other probiotics on the market, e.g. Blackmores, and various probiotic ice-creams and yoghurts that have been around for years?
Where's the expert on this stuff?

Oral FP oral.

[emearg]

The website is a disgrace. This has been pointed out ad nauseum. It is one of the reasons they don't sell any. The BLIS management know and simply don't care.

Gosh lots of opinions coming across as facts. Funny

[emearg]

Yes, those sort of small trades go through from time to time, and I can only conclude they are technical adjustments of some balanced portfolio somewhere, as they make no real sense otherwise. I would say these small trades prove my point rather than disprove it.

Ummm no....

[emearg]

Hey, cheer up, FP! Disaster actually very rarely happens in life. In fact I saw a study recently showing people massively underestimate the ability of other people to sort out problems.

Yes, Blis is not in the ideal position and so remains a risk. But the current strategy has only had about two years in the marketplace to come together, and very few new market initiatives come together in that time. And the upside is certainly still there, as the current share price is justified by a profit of just $280k at a PE of 12. (481m shares*$0.007 price/12 PE). Even a 30% dilution now just pushes that up to $360k.

We obviously hold different views, and that's healthy.

Plenty of other companies listed on the NZX have gone down the drain leaving the shareholders with nothing. It could happen here too.

I hope not, but you're dreaming if you think it is almost guaranteed to work out well. The share price says most don't think that. Sorry.

[emearg]

No need to cheer up. There might be if I had Blis shares. :D


We certainly have different views on Blis. It's healthy for me. :) Not sure about thec shareholders. :(

I have plenty so watching it run out of money is depressing. Still, life will go on for me no matter which way it goes. I will just have to stay at work for a few years longer which doesn't appeal much at all.

[simla]

Well, I hope all this gloom isn't justified. Certainly the world downturn is WAY worse than anyone would have thought a couple of years ago. For Blis it's all about sales revenue now, as the business model is pretty developed now. THE key question for me is why the per-capita sales in NZ are so much greater than for any other country. I just don't know why. If they can get that going in just one other country, we're home and hosed, and otherwise it continues to be a challenge. And yes, the subject of cash is on the table at present. But each issue concentrates the shareholding into those people who have had cash in the past, so logically this should be getting more predictable, but it will be good to see this issue over and dusted.

[emearg]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=448350331875189&set=a.106965989346960.4166.106885549355004&type=1&theater

[simla]

M18 in NZ? Great.

And this: https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/227946

Another announcement about the issue that didn't sound exciting. "No meaningful ingredient sales into [US and China] are anticipated before the 2014 financial year". Just to lower blood pressure however, that would be April next year, so only a few months away, and NOT calendar 2014 as it sounds! Well, we knew the next 6 months weren't forecast for good sales there.

However, "The Company has conducted a further review [... which ...] confirmed the potential of our operations ...". And now each investor gets to make their own choice again.

On the one hand, they have never made a profit and are not promising to! It's a risk. On the other hand, they've recently gained GRAS, Europe, China, set up the ice cream company, and gained a new distributor, and continue to grow sales in NZ if slowly, and have commenced internet sales. And on the other hand, the issue price is only a gamble that they will make a profit in excess of just a few hundred thousand dollars by my maths, which potential reward isn't to be sneezed at perhaps. (say 700m shares*$0.007 price/12 PE = 400k? Check that yourself.)

As always, I'm not trying to talk anyone into anything. Just having a conversation, hoping for feedback. No doubt there will be prognostications of doom from others. I'll probably try and put something in though, but the outlook remains vague, which is a pity. Some straightforward good news would certainly be nice. This thing is undeniably starting to stretch out.

[fungus pudding]

the outlook remains vague, which is a pity.

The outlook is hopeless. Nothing vague about that at all.

[winner69]

BLT gets write up in the esteemed NBR ..... great stuff

This new lozenge or whatever going to take the market by storm ....and the market loves it with the share price up 20% I read

Go Blis up up and away and please forgive me for being a doubter

[weasel]

BLT gets write up in the esteemed NBR ..... great stuff

This new lozenge or whatever going to take the market by storm ....and the market loves it with the share price up 20% I read

Go Blis up up and away and please forgive me for being a doubter

Yep, and "Mr Richardson says that the company could be vulnerable to a takeover as its shares are not particularly expensive". Looks like it is shaping up just as we have been expecting...we will be forced to sell our shares at 1 cent per share (an unbeatable 50% premium to current price!!!!), the new private company will go on to become hugely successful, and us long term holders will have been right royally shafted.

[fungus pudding]

Yep, and "Mr Richardson says that the company could be vulnerable to a takeover as its shares are not particularly expensive". Looks like it is shaping up just as we have been expecting...we will be forced to sell our shares at 1 cent per share (an unbeatable 50% premium to current price!!!!), the new private company will go on to become hugely successful, and us long term holders will have been right royally shafted.


Don't panic.....they've still got to work out how to sell the stuff first. It won't take the market by storm simply because the company says so.

[simla]

Sorry to awkwardly refer to the facts, but of course there are indeed a lot of decent people involved here :) It is that fact alone that continues to convince me to hope for a good outcome here. It's all perfectly evident in the company reports, and other reports we see on the net.

And we could admit that all the people who benefitted from the conversion price are also people who put a lot of money into Blis three years ago. Without that money, the company would be history now. And that was a long list of people. All these people believed in what this company could do and have supported it in an hour of need. I didn't enjoy how the conversion went, but I notice nobody whatsoever has agreed with me that the share price is a collective creation. Thousands of shareholders have not supported the share price by investing more on the market over time. If even 5%, even 2% probably, had continued to support the company in the market, the current price would be way greater than it is now. They haven't and it is curious how quiet everyone is about saying all shareholders have played their part in these events, both the share price and the cash position.

Secondly, there is a tendency to talk as if this is all over just because there is a low share price. See previous paragraph however. And there is much talk of dilution. Well the amount of dilution starting at the preference issue hasn't been as much as perhaps it seems. If this issue reaches 700m shares, then there will have been 75% dilution by my quick calculations. So the value will have to increase four fold for original shareholders to keep their value then. Is that likely? Yes, easily surely? Either this will fail completely, or there will very likely be a four fold payoff on what was there then, so I don't see that as the biggest loss I've ever heard of. Further, to state the obvious, any one of those shareholders then who continued to support the company with cash would be suffering no dilution at all now. Look, I'm really sorry to say it, but the value of the shares before this new plan wasn't exactly a lot. The company wasn't really going anywhere obvious at that point, and people who had invested up to that point actually suffered their loss back then, not now. It would be possible to feel grateful that the current management is trying to rebuild value for the original shareholders.

Talk of a takeover is odd considering the makeup of the share register. It would require all of the top 20 to give up a battle they have long been involved in, for example. Well, shareholders may not have shown a lot of spine in supporting the share price in the market, but they have shown quite a lot of spine in not selling. Very very few shares actually sell in the market. All things are possible, granted, and I don't know the future any more than anyone else, but I am not personally hugely worried that Blis shareholders are just going to throw away their share value now by consenting to a takeover. They didn't agree to a delisting either. Obviously that possibility also exists if not enough cash comes in the door now, but again that requires the top 20 to throw in the towel. It's possible, I'm not expecting it personally. We'll see shortly.

The prospects of the company are surely the actual point here. Yes, it obviously remains a risk due to the simple fact it isn't cash flow positive. But four years ago a plan was proposed that was audacious to say the least. Now they have climbed at least 80% of that cliff, against all the odds. Just one single barrier remains now, and that is going cash flow positive. Each person must judge for themselves if that is going to happen. Two things are obvious though. The company has shown great resilience and resourcefulness to date. And it is surely obvious that the company must have cash flow/revenue as its number one priority at this point.

So will this all end well? I don't know. Neither does anyone else. But the prospects rely on how much can be sold into the market place at what profit margin, versus whether they can manage their cash position. It's that simple surely.

[fungus pudding]

So will this all end well? I don't know. Neither does anyone else. But the prospects rely on how much can be sold into the market place at what profit margin, versus whether they can manage their cash position. It's that simple surely.

So by now you will no doubt have a much better idea of ice cream sales. How does that look?

[simla]

No idea, FP. I'm waiting for someone to report seeing it in Auckland. Anyone seen any yet?

[pierre]

Received the SPP offer documents and like most other BLT holders, am in a real dilemma about what to do.

Do I throw more good money into the pot, cross fingers and hope, or sit tight and let the Bacteria-like substances eat away at the worth (sic) of my current investment.

The company is still talking up the possibilities of success (but they would say that wouldn't they), they're promising to upgrade their web site (about time!) and the possibility of using their stuff in animal products is potentially promising too.

If the SPP doesn't work then the Chairman says a "pro-rata issue to shareholders in conjunction with a further review of the company's operations would likely be required in the 2014 financial year".

There has been a huge amount of effort invested in development and it might just pay-off so maybe, it's "once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more" and hope like hell that it works this time?

[percy]

Received the SPP offer documents and like most other BLT holders, am in a real dilemma about what to do.

Do I throw more good money into the pot, cross fingers and hope, or sit tight and let the Bacteria-like substances eat away at the worth (sic) of my current investment.

The company is still talking up the possibilities of success (but they would say that wouldn't they), they're promising to upgrade their web site (about time!) and the possibility of using their stuff in animal products is potentially promising too.

If the SPP doesn't work then the Chairman says a "pro-rata issue to shareholders in conjunction with a further review of the company's operations would likely be required in the 2014 financial year".

There has been a huge amount of effort invested in development and it might just pay-off so maybe, it's "once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more" and hope like hell that it works this time?

pierre;The point of owning shares is to receive money from the company,rather than giving them money.You made a mistake,face up to it and move on.

[spike]

I have not decided what I will do yet have to decide some time this week.
I notice the share price up to 9 cents today.
Quite offen in this type of share rasing the directors will indicate if they will take there full alotment which they have not done as it is nice to know they are taking the same risk as the rest of the share holders. Any one else decide yet?

spike

[neopoleII]

uhmmm..... 9cents?

as a previous posters has said.........""The point of owning shares is to receive money from the company,rather than giving them money.""

i chucked in a $100k in the last 10 - 12 years....... please listen to me..... if you want to have a bet and it ain't going to hurt you ....... go for it because there is a chance for a 10 bagger or more....... but the reality is..... at this point today...... and the last 1000 days....... its game over.

nzo is a better bet.
or better still....... buy your missus some sexy real leather lingerie and get some real value for money.

bought my missus $2000 of leather and boots and have a smile on face....... better than beer bottle glasses docktors running blis and begging for cash for the last 5 or 7 years.

leather on a woman is priceless.

DOH!
im writing this while my eyes are being diverted to something nice sitting in a lazy boy.


think twice...... then think again.
men have 2 heads..... make a democratic decision............
lol

[neopoleII]

ps....... just got told off for writing the previous post...... she saw me grinning while i was writing and came over to see whats up........
as for the directors....... they do get paid a healthy salary...... why chuck it away?

blis does have potential..... but even nestle has walked away....... its not like the value of blt is very high...... it could be bought out by "trevor" the lotto king several times over, and yet the big guys in nutrition arent interested.

i really really want my money back........ but the writing is on the wall.

[simla]

Any one else decide yet?
Probably no surprise that I've sent something in.

As I look on it, the infrastructure development continues to be all we might hope for, with major market opportunities opened up in the last year. GRAS, Europe, China, ice cream, web sales, strong activity apparently in Russia, Italy, Israel, and we were just told a couple of large international companies are examining things.

Against that is the sales revenue, which continues to be the fly in the ointment. Some here have said that paints a picture of no hope. Well, that's possible, but personally I'll wait for another 12 to 18 months data before I consider downgrading my expectations. The sales revenue has suffered three "one up" events over the last couple of years. Biog seems to be out of Costco apparently due to internal difficulties nothing to do with Blis, which is a pity as they seemed to understand the need to advertise. Then the change of distributors apparently torpedoed the sales revenue for at least a year, and possibly fed into the third one. The new distributors appear to have decided there was too much product in the supply chain and are selling it down (or that's how I'm reading the very few cryptic words we've been told so far, I could be wrong) with the result that sales this half and next will take a big hit. I ignore the delay in China as I assume that to be simple politics and nothing to do with Blis. M18 is in NZ now. And the ice cream sold 279k in about the 6 months to March, when it was really only just opening in Wellington, so could actually be useful revenue this year too.

All up, it's been about 18 months since we had a clear view of what sales should be, with events since that time making it impossible for us to see any trends at all. Or that's how I read it. Maybe the others are right and it's not going well, or maybe not. Where some see a clear answer, I personally see a vague situation from our point of view. Possibly the half report will make things clearer, but it's hard to see how given the situation.

Others will factor in the share price. But I struggle to find any useful signal in that, although others say it's as clear as day.

So others have said its all terrible, and I can't say they're wrong. But I can't see the data to support that myself, and I tend to assume underlying sales have carried on where they were when we last saw them, with hopefully additions, such as the ice cream. I doubt there is an underlying profit yet, but I don't see any especial barrier to that either.

So others see doom, but I just see uncertainly. But I always work from the facts and I'm not personally seeing any clear facts to tell me that there's any fat lady on stage. So if it's an unclear situation, what to do? Some say cut and leave, others like me are willing to carry on because they still see potential for success and because I also think NZ needs support for enterprises like this. The right response depends on your personal value system perhaps. Difficult decisions are irritating, but they are also fairly rare opportunities to find out just what we each value most. Obviously it also depends on whether each can afford to take risks presently. They aren't promising success.

I'm not trying to talk anyone into anything, but you asked. Neither do I claim that my understanding of the situation is the right one, I'm just a shareholder looking on like everyone else. Each must decide for themselves. But I feel the debate here is somewhat one-sided presently, so I've put up the reasons why I'm willing to carry on myself. Good luck with your own choice!

[Chippie]

I am in, just need to determine for how much. Both my wife and I hold shares so I do not expect to take all of our entitlement.

It really is major risk to invest in BLT. But the upside risk for me outweighs the downside.

The NZ sharemarket is hopeless so the most probable positive outcome would be a takeover from an oversea's company. The worst case is we end up writing this investment down to experience :)

[Balance]

I am in, just need to determine for how much. Both my wife and I hold shares so I do not expect to take all of our entitlement.

It really is major risk to invest in BLT. But the upside risk for me outweighs the downside.

The NZ sharemarket is hopeless so the most probable positive outcome would be a takeover from an oversea's company. The worst case is we end up writing this investment down to experience :)

BLT was a con-job right from day 1.

It was brought to the market by the late Howard Paterson (the man with the Midas touch) with a manipulated listing so that the stock listed at a 900% premium to issue price.

It was downhill from there.

Better to back companies with real backing from those who have real experience in growing companies - ATM, PEB and DIL to name 3.

[percy]

I am in, just need to determine for how much. Both my wife and I hold shares so I do not expect to take all of our entitlement.

It really is major risk to invest in BLT. But the upside risk for me outweighs the downside.

The NZ sharemarket is hopeless so the most probable positive outcome would be a takeover from an oversea's company. The worst case is we end up writing this investment down to experience :)

Experience comes at a huge cost the longer it takes you to learn.Had you invested $3,000 ten years ago in BLT you would have an investment worth $100,while the same amount invested in RYM, you would have an investment worth over $40,000.Pays to learn quickly.

[Chippie]

All your comments are fair enough. But I am happy to take a punt on BLT. Only time will tell who is right.

Although to be honest, my share investments a doing okay and I have always allowed 5% of my portfolio to go towards speculative shares. My gut felling is this could still turn out okay and decided to back this up with my money.

We will have to comapre the BLT sharepirce in 12 months :)

[Balance]

All your comments are fair enough. But I am happy to take a punt on BLT. Only time will tell who is right.

Although to be honest, my share investments a doing okay and I have always allowed 5% of my portfolio to go towards speculative shares. My gut felling is this could still turn out okay and decided to back this up with my money.

We will have to comapre the BLT sharepirce in 12 months :)

Let's compare BLT and PEB and ATM in 12 months' time, ok?

[Chippie]

okay, I will put it in my task list to check back in 12 months.

[tango]

I wish they would invest some of their money into their website. It's ridiculously amateurish for a company touting their success in online trading.

I've thought long and hard about this and decided not to throw good money after bad. Part of me wants to gamble and throw some more money in as I love probiotics and think they have great potential but I have no faith that the management of this company has the expertise to make it happen. Their tech and development credentials are proven. Their sales and marketing and entrepreneurial skills aren't up to the job IMO

[pierre]

Tango - a web site upgrade is on the agenda - probably if they get enough dosh in from the SPP.

Interesting that the price is now starting to creep up from the low point of 0.7 to 1.1cps as I write.

That would mean a gain of 57% on the SPP issue price - provided the price holds after issue of course. That would be a pretty good return on a $15k investment or at least go some way to offsetting current paper losses so I think I'll now go with it.

[winner69]

Really good to see the decent guys come up with an innovative idea to gain market share in Otago and Southland

Great inititaive .... they really are decent guys

[weasel]

Really good to see the decent guys come up with an innovative idea to gain market share in Otago and Southland

Great inititaive .... they really are decent guys

"The greater the Internet sales are for the Throat Guard range of products, the higher the number of lozenges that can be provided to The Salvation Army for distribution."

So we shouldn't be too concerned about them giving away product for free

[simla]

The Salvation Army move is clever in so many ways.

For a starter, it's everything Professor Tagg set out to do many years ago, so he must be very proud, and very rightly so. What a great achievement. And then of course it is a kind thing to do by any standards. Easy to say, and yet so few companies do things like that.

And yet it is clever commercially too. It gives the Salvation Army (and other organisations too) an incentive to publicise the advantages of Blis and encourage people to use the Blis web site. And it also addresses the very difficult legal restrictions on making health claims by instead simply associating it with an actual use in society. And if it works (the product's good, but will the kids stick to it, and will their lifestyle factors - eg freezing homes probably - be too strong to overcome) then there's a potential for the government to become a customer.

And hopefully it creates publicity too. Must be worth a few media interviews at the least.

And best of all is the reassuring signals it gives us shareholders about Blis's energy. They're smart. They're definitely still on the case. They're definitely focused on promotion. And ... yep ... a decent thing to do. That impressed me, I must say.

(ps yes, they redeveloped the website last year, as it used to be a fairly basic site with no web sales. So this is perhaps web sales version 1, and they tell us version 2 is coming.)

[fungus pudding]

The Salvation Army move is clever in so many ways.

For a starter, it's everything Professor Tagg set out to do many years ago, so he must be very proud, and very rightly so. What a great achievement. And then of course it is a kind thing to do by any standards. Easy to say, and yet so few companies do things like that.

And yet it is clever commercially too. It gives the Salvation Army (and other organisations too) an incentive to publicise the advantages of Blis and encourage people to use the Blis web site. And it also addresses the very difficult legal restrictions on making health claims by instead simply associating it with an actual use in society. And if it works (the product's good, but will the kids stick to it, and will their lifestyle factors - eg freezing homes probably - be too strong to overcome) then there's a potential for the government to become a customer.

And hopefully it creates publicity too. Must be worth a few media interviews at the least.

And best of all is the reassuring signals it gives us shareholders about Blis's energy. They're smart. They're definitely still on the case. They're definitely focused on promotion. And ... yep ... a decent thing to do. That impressed me, I must say.

(ps yes, they redeveloped the website last year, as it used to be a fairly basic site with no web sales. So this is perhaps web sales version 1, and they tell us version 2 is coming.)

No doubt you've heard of the prisoner who, while being led to the gallows, cheered up considerably when his toothache disappeared.

[mccollr]

I'm in. Love the product. Throat Guard has never let me down and that is worth trying to save. May help a Kiwi battler last a while longer.

[emearg]

I've thought long and hard about this and decided not to throw good money after bad. Part of me wants to gamble and throw some more money in as I love probiotics and think they have great potential but I have no faith that the management of this company has the expertise to make it happen. Their tech and development credentials are proven. Their sales and marketing and entrepreneurial skills aren't up to the job IMO

Perhaps rather than adding fresh money you should sell some of your current holding on market? Then you can reinvest that money via the rights issue.

That way Blis get their money which may mean your current holding doesn't go down the drain. That is better than doing nothing.

Plus you're no worse off than you are now. You might even be better off depending on the sell price.

Personally I have done that this week. Blis will get their money and I am no worse off than if I had done nothing. Better off actually as the sell price all week has been 0.7 cents or higher.

I have done this because I don't want to invest any more money into the company at this time, but am happy with what is invested.

FP and CTC feel free not to tell me I should have sold and kept the money. Your opinions have already been noted...

[emearg]

If Often and co buy up heavily this time round, which isn't certain as no indications have been given, that will be a sign for all of us for the next rights issue next year. I don't think they are going to let this company go down the drain but are gradually gaining a greater and greater share.

For all the people that harp on about how somebody big should buy Blis and invest heavily in the marketing well doh! Anyone capable of doing this will be just of capable of investing heavily in marketing. The current management team don't have the resources to do this. They don't have the skill set either. They can't afford to buy it. Stratum/Novus do which is why they have gone down that road. Sensible strategy all things considered.

Yes the website is ****e.

I suspect the Salvation Army partnership will turn up on Close Up and Campbell Live soon enough. Is just the kind of thing Mark Sainsbury loves. Good PR if they leverage the opportunity properly...

[emearg]

...because what Blis offer is not particularly unique anymore. Other companies offer probiotics into NZ and overseas markets.

Very incorrect. You should start learning about probiotics before making incorrect statements. The ones in your body already and the ones you can supplement.

How many other oral probiotics are available? How many of them are 'advanced probiotics'? None you say? Yes Blis K12 is completely unique in that regard.

[fungus pudding]

Very incorrect. You should start learning about probiotics before making incorrect statements. The ones in your body already and the ones you can supplement.

How many other oral probiotics are available? How many of them are 'advanced probiotics'? None you say? Yes Blis K12 is completely unique in that regard.


Obviously you consider that consumers should know that. How on earth could they?

[emearg]

Obviously you consider that consumers should know that. How on earth could they?

The original statement wasn't about consumers. Nor was my reply. I was merely pointing out that you are wrong. That stands.

[emearg]

So what are these products then?

http://www.healthpost.co.nz/specials/specials/all-supplement-specials/probiotics-for-oral-care-ogpoc?gclid=CJu0_N7Q-rICFZBUpgodt1EAhg

http://www.healthandherbs.co.nz/Products/Products-by-Conditions/Product-List/Product-Details/_cat2_/11/Oral-Health/_prod_/Kids-Probiotic

Why is my job to learn what "advanced probiotics" are? That's the job of Blis, and they've failed utterly at this.

Ditto on this i.e. the original statement wasn't about consumers. Nor was my reply. I was merely pointing out that you are wrong. That stands

The first is an oral probiotic. But it isn't an advanced one.

The second like most on the market isn't targeting the oral cavity.

It isn't your job, but making incorrect statements isn't either.

[fungus pudding]

Very incorrect. You should start learning about probiotics before making incorrect statements. The ones in your body already and the ones you can supplement.

How many other oral probiotics are available? How many of them are 'advanced probiotics'? None you say? Yes Blis K12 is completely unique in that regard.

Could you perhaps point out where courses are held for the ignorant, like me, to learn about probiotics? Many retailers of this stuff would benefit also as the couple I have asked didn't know there was a difference either.

[tango]

Comedy from the Blis Annual report for 2012 on page 9.

http://blis.co.nz/media/pdf/blis_annual_report.pdf

"The past year has seen considerable re-development ofthe website (www.blis.co.nz), including the introduction ofinternet sales."



Yep! Someone hired a 2 year old to randomly throw things on there.

It looks like what it is.. a technically oriented company that doesn't understand their consumers and thinks people buy science. The video of the interview with Paul Henry should be bigger and up near the top. They need testimonials from real customers, a simple front page and simple product pages and then people can drill down to all the science and a much better layout so people can see the data

[winner69]

Victory for Blis is at hand!

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/228432

This is HUGE

Animal remedies is a HUGE market

Maybe BLT needs to take some of its own medicines .....seeing it is a dog stock and this stuff good for dogs

[fungus pudding]

Victory for Blis is at hand!

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/228432

I've been expecting an announcement for some time 'blis is dog tucker'.

[simla]

Could be interesting actually. "Stratum Nutrition is a division of Novus Nutrition Brands, a subsidiary of Novus International, Inc. Novus is a leading developer of animal health and nutrition programs based on science." (Stratum website). Novus sell into 90 countries with revenues of $1 billion (Novus website.)

I think we got told straight away that Stratum wanted to look at Blis for dogs but needed more research. How expensive can the research really be given they have everything to hand? It may not even take that long, and they already have the encapsulation techniques to put it in dog food etc. Also, if there are big legal restrictions on making human health claims (which is the problem for advertising Blis) then this could be an interesting avenue that may not take that long to open maybe? As you say though, how long and how much?

[simla]

To clarify: There are laws restricting advertising of health claims in most countries, which is obviously to ensure that medicines are real and properly researched. This makes it hard for Blis to advertise though, as the product is a health product at heart.

But there are different laws for different products. Dietary supplements (the current Blis pills) are quite restricted legally in most countries, which is why most probiotic ads in NZ never actually tell you what they do. Foods usually have different rules though in many countries and are typically more open to ads. Pet products have different rules again - I haven't looked into them much, but they are looser. And then web sites are seemingly open to more direct claims too.

So Blis is facing the problem of how to advertise. Supplements have proved quite hard. They're going for food now but it takes time to get any new products launched by manufacturers. And they are trying to attract an audience to the web sites. And now pet products may be a useful avenue too. Blis have also got chemists explaining it in person, which chemists are presumably entitled to do. And they've just announced a sponsorship approach as well. I imagine the Q24 for acne is subject to much less restriction on advertising too.

Thus I presume Blis is poking around trying to find the fastest access to places it can actually meaningfully advertise. Advertising is what many here have called for, of course, but it's a chess game when you look at the laws. Noting the different laws in different market segments is one possible solution maybe. It's good that they are poking around. We need Blis to be advertised, but it's obviously a tricky assignment to find just where and how they can do it. They obviously intend to succeed however.

[winner69]

David said 'Wouldn't they be better to concentrate less of their limited funds on fooling around in the lab and more on selling their products and generating revenue for the company and profits for the company's owners, the shareholders?'

But fooling around is more fun than doing the hard yakka selling stuff ......that's why they go to work those scientists

[fungus pudding]

To clarify: There are laws restricting advertising of health claims in most countries, which is obviously to ensure that medicines are real and properly researched. This makes it hard for Blis to advertise though, as the product is a health product at heart.

But there are different laws for different products. Dietary supplements (the current Blis pills) are quite restricted legally in most countries, which is why most probiotic ads in NZ never actually tell you what they do. Foods usually have different rules though in many countries and are typically more open to ads. Pet products have different rules again - I haven't looked into them much, but they are looser. And then web sites are seemingly open to more direct claims too.

So Blis is facing the problem of how to advertise. Supplements have proved quite hard.

Have they? The current fad - resveratrol, seemsto be doing okay. There's been fortunes made with pleny of junk health rubbish.

[winner69]

sparky .... talk of dogs and the HUGE animal remedies market put a rocket under the shareprice today

Lozenges for dogs .... Masterpet as a distributor .... EBO .... a marriage made in heaven is EBO and BLT .... Percy would love that

[simla]

Morning Report this morning http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20121016-0647-morning_business_for_16_october_2012-048.mp3 (about 5 mins in) reported the dog product should be on the market in the US and Europe in a year.

[simla]

Blis raises $1.3m. In addition to the placements, 166 other shareholders sent an average of $4k each then. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/228866

Seems there are still quite a few "stout hearted men" willing to be counted when needed. Well done chaps.

[simla]

Well, actually it naturally raises the question: just what sort of proposition is Blis now?

For a starter, we might assume they're reasonably well cashed up. They said they wanted 1.5m, so close enough. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ed892481/blis-technology-forecasts-wider-2013-loss-seeks-to-raise-capital.html

Then we are told there will be no meaningful sales into the US or China until next financial year. Five months away perhaps, then?

Possible progress over the next year might reasonably include any of the following: sales into China, sales into Europe, resumed sales into the US, increased sales into the US, increased sales into Asia, increased web sales, increased NZ sales, increased ice cream sales, GRAS sales in the US, GRAS sales elsewhere, progress on M18 sales, sales of dog product.

The question is, which is more likely: continued failure to generate new revenue, or finally getting new revenue from all the activity? Interesting question. Answers on the back of an envelope! And how does that answer compare to the share price?

I don't know the answer, but the question sure is interesting. And interesting to read the next report too.


You know, Sparky,I hope ATM and PEB do well too. I've been following them for several years as well. But Blis doesn't have to fail for them to succeed! It was suggested Howard Paterson failed at things. But I checked and he was a founder of ATM, and I'm fairly sure he was a supporter of PEB too, and as far as I can tell all the things he set up have succeeded except so far Blis. With luck it will be 100% soon. Good luck to all NZ biotechs, as far as I'm concerned.

[simla]

Well done chaps. Fixed bayonets, on my command, over the top, and..... CHAAAAARGE....

Incidentally, a historical note, just out of interest. Yes, the trench warfare of WWI was awful, but remember that doing that DID win and peace was restored to Europe. The Germans deployed machine guns, tanks, planes and mustard gas in the field. This was completely unprecedented, and everyone just responded as best they could. Trench warfare was brutal and awful, but it DID work in the end in the face of unbelievable escalation of military technology.

More interesting still is that a horrible part of the trenches was Trench Mouth, a bacterial infection of the gums. So they would have loved Blis!

[neopoleII]

"The Germans deployed machine guns, tanks, planes and mustard gas in the field. This was completely unprecedented, and everyone just responded as best they could"
the response was to send living human beings into battle to "use up" the limited supply of german ammunition.
sort of like what blt is doing now....... milking the last few hard core followers for the last drop.
sorry about my statement.... but i got milked enough.... and seen nothing yet except letters asking for more investment monies..... think its 12 years now...... in my case the early bird got screwed.

it seems the johny come latelies are getting screwed less ....... but more so obviously.

close it down. sell the intellectual property and send the docktors into retirement.

[neopoleII]

well sparky.... i hope you are right...... i / we could use some good outside jovial good luck.
in fact... if it turns for the better...... i'll buy you and mrs clown a fine dinner.
but a website wont cut it... nor will radio adds. overseas presents?... been happening for many years.
whats the answer?...... maybe some swavy advertising like 42 below??

anyway still a holder, just not optimistic anymore.

[emearg]

Hi STC. How much do you think they should spend on the NZ advertising campaign? And how much extra revenue would you expect from this in year one?

[emearg]

To be honest, I'd bring in an outside investor with expertise, maybe merge with their proven operations including a sales channel. That would give BLT a much greater fillip in credibility than the existing sales programme. I don't dispute Blis understand science, what they seem to lack is sales and marketing know-how.

If I was to look at a partner who has the right skill set, complementary products, science based approach and and proven sales force, I'd go with a company like About Health who market those Reseveratrol products on Newstalk ZB. Take a look at their website, they do things much better than Blis do. Celebrity endorsements, website that pretty much fits a desktop PC page with all useful info, clean and uncluttered. Their website is http://abouthealth.co.nz

No magic in their advertising pitch, just repetition, pushing the value message, and the use of trusted names like Leighton Smith and Mike Hosking. It seems to work well.


Hi STC. How much do you think they should spend on the NZ advertising campaign? And how much extra revenue would you expect from this in year one?

I responded to your comment with this question because spending a significant amount of money would probably not result in large revenue increases. Blis Throatguard sales have been growing at a reasonable rate (10-20% pa (from memory)) and the product is now number three in NZ in this segment. As I recall NZ sales are around 300k. So a big spend probably wouldn't result in equally big revenue gains let alone profit. Blis used to do the distribution and marketing themselves but a few years ago switched to using Pharmabroker in NZ. This has resulted in the steady gains. They have run radio advertisements. There have been TV advertisements this year. There are product brochures in some chemists explaning Throatguard Daily and Boost. To me this seems like a reasonable approach given the limited resources available. Pharmabroker will only invest.

I can't see NZ ever being a big win for Blis, more a test bed for their products. This is especially the case with supplements.

Spending a lot of money on a advertising campaign strikes me as the wrong approach and would only be out of desperation.


I don't think I am qualified to give answers on this! I don't know the books, and I don't know enough.
Fair enough. My comments are using figures as I recall them. They may be a bit off but should give the correct general idea


Blis seems to lack a director with sales channel experience in the medical sector - maybe that's the first problem. They have the science down to pat, but they need someone who understands direct selling, sales plans and similar. They have tax, biotech and startup experience on the board, but they really aren't cutting through with their sales/distribution. So maybe that's a good first step.
I agree. I'm not too sure what the directors strengths are to be honest. To me it seems that the CEO is the strength of this company since he took over in 2007.


Someone on the EBOS thread joked that EBOS should acquire Blis. I wouldn't expect they'd want Blis, but obviously a meaningful healthcare distribution agreement could be a very good thing for BLT, if they don't have the confidence they can sell directly themselves.
Have you checked out http://www.stratumnutrition.com & http://www.novusint.com ?

Stratum is Blis's international distributer. They have much more resource than Blis with the limited capital it has available/can raise now it is in the penny dreadful category. It is backed by Novus. Novus focus on animal orientated products including companion animals. I suspect this is why Blis is doing studies on the effects of K12 on canines.

Blis are trying the direct selling approach themselves on the web. It is a pretty bad website but is it bad enough to stop sales? Probably some but not all.

I would like to see Blis get M18 into dental surgeries. That is a nice fit of products/services.

In my opinion Blis K12 lozenges will only be a small part of the future. The future is inclusion in food and other products. Ideally products with a short shelf life like yoghurt and icecream. Gum is another good fit. It needs to be in mainstream products sold at normal (or close to) prices.

For that reason I support the current strategy. Unfortunately it will take more time. Probably another year at least before food products are released. If that happens Blis will become profitable. If it doesn't happen Blis won't become profitable and will no doubt fold.

If Blis becomes successful in time the profits will be very large. I am willing to risk my money on that basis. So are a number of others who have put large amounts of money into the business in the past few years.

STC, taking my comments into account, what do you think they should do in addition to what they are doing? Are they doing things they shouldn't be doing? Making icecream for instance? Cheers

[simla]

Probably another year at least before food products are released. If that happens Blis will become profitable. If it doesn't happen Blis won't become profitable and will no doubt fold.

The thing that struck me most about the issue was the strong shareholder support. This not only gives them enough cash to recover from the expensive events of the last 18 months (change distributor with disruption, buy ice cream company and refit and relaunch, GRAS, Europe and China, new lines of research probably, etc) but suggests they may have the support to survive long enough to benefit from them. My gut reaction is that they may have a good 2 years of safe sailing in front of them at present after that, even if they have to fall back on another issue at some point, which I'm sure they're hoping not to. All of which is quite an improvement on the nervousness of earlier this year, if true. Further, there has been the occasional nervousness about takeover, but that level of shareholder support might suggest quite a decent rump would refuse to play ball at the least.

All of which suggests a much stronger company than it felt earlier this year. The whole sales revenue thing still needs to come right, but I sense a stirring of fate perhaps finally coming together here.

[simla]

Concrete suggestions, always good. You may have a good point about the pictures of bacteria etc. The likes of Colgate always project images of white and pastel, clean, sparkling, and clinical. No doubt they have found that works. Interesting point, Sparky.

[Guild]

On the website the first thing I noticed was the M18 combined with Blis on the website, I thought it was a spoof website.

[emearg]

I'm a little skeptical of the ice cream venture. While I appreciate the overall purpose is showing how the Blis product can be adapted for different food types, on reflection I don't see ice cream, particularly "gourmet" ice cream as the best tool. Useful as a proof of concept, but as a business model I'm yet to be convinced.

I agree and wish they hadn't taken the POC all the way to being a commercial operator!

Big picture wise Blis K12 and or M18 could be in ice cream marketed in a different way i.e. not gourmet. Mainstream or close to it is more sensible. Scale is what Blis needs. Always focussing on specialist areas isn't the way to achieve this.

[emearg]

I agree and wish they hadn't taken the POC all the way to being a commercial operator!

Best case scenario is they grow the ice cream business to an adequate scale and sell it to a big player. Pigs may fly first of course...

[fungus pudding]

Best case scenario is they grow the ice cream business to an adequate scale and sell it to a big player. Pigs may fly first of course...

Yep. Pigs will be flying long before that ice cream makes any impression on the market.

[emearg]

Yep. Pigs will be flying long before that ice cream makes any impression on the market.

I stand corrected

[Stu]

I agree and wish they hadn't taken the POC all the way to being a commercial operator!

Big picture wise Blis K12 and or M18 could be in ice cream marketed in a different way i.e. not gourmet. Mainstream or close to it is more sensible. Scale is what Blis needs. Always focussing on specialist areas isn't the way to achieve this.

I think BLT have got this close to right, they own and control the product, and if the market moves they own all of it. To licence to a Tip Top would mean they get FA percentange, mainly because the the types who buy processed frozen milk powder don't care about what they feed themselves or their kids so aren't paying a specific premium, so Tip Top would only shell out for a small fraction of the market. And let's face it, it's frozen milk (or milk substitute) and sugar, no need for the rocket science of Tip Top.
My only concerns are the usual BLT suspects: a lack of marketing and finesse. The icecream product needs better packaging and more info on the packaging, which I assume they are working on. And the lolly-pineapple-flavoured-health-food thing is just bs. Not sure what the problem with the website is, these days it's a question of hundreds, not thousands to rebuild a website.
On a positive note these things are cheap and easy to fix, not sure what the added costs are to switching to organic but if feasible it would corner a market. I've called into PakNSav kilbirnie (Wgtn) and it sells for a very reasonable $8 so it's currently competitive to the chemical based frozen desserts.
It's not hard to sell to a sector who have some discretionary spending and don't want to feed their kids crap.

[emearg]

Good support shown by the directors, CEO and insiders in the latest capital raising exercise.

$2.39 worth of Blis shares traded so far today. I really don't understand why that can occur?

[simla]

Came across this interview. "We spoke with Jeremy Moore, President of Novus Nutrition Brands and Stratum Nutrition". "[K12 and M18 have] been received really well." "certainly we’ll be investing more into the Blis probiotics world for dental health as well as immunity".

http://newhope360.com/supply-chain-management/stay-target-stratum-nutrition-condition-specific-market-science-supported-in

[pierre]

"
Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates
Class of listed voting securities: Ordinary Share(BLT),
Summary for: [Xu Qi Wu & Yao Hong Shen]
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: [45,000,000]
(b) total in class: [669,593,903]
(c) total percentage held in class: [6.72%] "

So, having taken over FPA, looks like the Chinese now have their eyes on BLT. Interesting.

[fungus pudding]

David B - to be fair, the current management have pretty much failed.

So - who's that being fair to?

[Stu]

7% for about $300,000? Or the price of a crappy rental property on the outskirts of Hamilton. What would the average NZ investor choose? Good luck Shen and Wu, and welcome aboard.

[GRIFFIN]

Just like the Chinese buying huge amounts of our NZ Deer Velvet every year for their health system which has got me thinking, who is the bio tech company in the lower South Island that is doing research and trials on a promising product from Deer Velvet which the Chinese would find very exciting.

[simla]

Steady on, chaps. That's a lot of speculation just because two people of Chinese name have appeared on the register via an SSH.

They presumably are either investors or people who have come across Blis in business. If business, then I'd be fascinated to know if they are the same people mentioned in this trademark list in 2009, which might be a helpful business connection for Blis if so, but I have no idea if it is them. http://www.iponz.govt.nz/cms/pdf-library/iponz/latest-journal-publications/2009/april-2009-journal-1558/tm-classification-nine-part-1-8-mb-pdf

Anyway, welcome aboard as far as I'm concerned. The future will be whatever it wants to be. Nice to see someone recognising Blis's worth.

[pierre]

Steady on, chaps. That's a lot of speculation just because two people of Chinese name have appeared on the register via an SSH.

They presumably are either investors or people who have come across Blis in business. If business, then I'd be fascinated to know if they are the same people mentioned in this trademark list in 2009, which might be a helpful business connection for Blis if so, but I have no idea if it is them. http://www.iponz.govt.nz/cms/pdf-library/iponz/latest-journal-publications/2009/april-2009-journal-1558/tm-classification-nine-part-1-8-mb-pdf

Anyway, welcome aboard as far as I'm concerned. The future will be whatever it wants to be. Nice to see someone recognising Blis's worth.

Simla - I quite enjoy a treasure hunt - but not one that's 215 pages long. How about giving us a clue - like which page no should we be looking at?

[simla]

As I said, it's the names that match - search for them. Try page 32 anyway.

[Nigel]

Gourmet Icecream now available at New World in Victoria Park (Auckland). This is a great milestone, getting into the Auckland market; will be interesting to see how sales go. Definitely a positive development! Well done Blis :)

[simla]

Yes, that's brilliant. Thanks for telling us, Nigel. It appears to still be turning over steadily here in Wellington.

[simla]

Hard to know quite what to make of the interim report. There was an air of tail between the legs, but that seemed to be more about the current situation than the prospects. Their hopes for the future seem undimmed.

Half of the loss was amortisation and the tail of the pref dividends, p14 so that's less pressure on cash for the future. But they're still capitalising R&D, although less of that too.

And Asia finally got a bit of life in it, with sales of last year being 112k this half alone, compared to 52k last full year. We need more than that though. Sales in the US essentially zero. That may be because of the supply chain issue raised previously, but that was not explicitly said. It did say that had happened in Europe and Asia, where there were extra sales not reported in revenue. p3 A pity we haven't any idea of how big this supply chain is that is apparently being sold down, if that is the explanation.

They do specifically say the sales drop is a part of changing distributor (p3), but no particular explanation of that.

Gourmet running at a loss so far. p7. Is that startup costs of expanding again, or is it profit margin, or extra costs in developing probiotic product to show others? The margin looked good in the last report, so we'll have to wait for the full year report for more detail it seems.

The financial situation is expected to improve. p4.

More product launches expected this year, but no food ingredient sales expected this financial year. p5. So some after that?

K12 is okay to use in China, but they need another approval to make claims about it on the label. p6. Aren't rules great.

End of year guidance of -1.3m compared to -0.8 this half. Then that's -0.5 for the last half. Amort and depreciation this half was 0.25 (p14), which might suggest an operating loss of 0.25m expected this coming half? Worse things have happened at sea. It wouldn't take too much lift in sales to eat that up. But they are unsure if they will need extra cash in a year. p4.

The problem with Blis-watching at this stage is the lack of clear pattern. The last 18 months have seen a number of large moves and upheaval in sales patterns as well. It makes it impossible to tell what will happen next and you sense that the company itself has the same problem in forming expectations.

The potential just grows and grows with more and more market opportunities opened up. And the sales revenue doesn't. Yet. It could all change very quickly from here. Or not. You sense that they think they are going to make it, but nothing short of actual sales will ever prove that. So we wait and see. Another holding pattern this time. Or that's my impression.

Thanks to the company for soldiering on. Gourmet in particular deserve a special mention for getting the ice cream into the whole country now, which must have been a massive amount of extra work for them. But all are clearly working very hard. I recently noticed that the website ranking (visitor numbers, alexa.com) has improved a lot recently, and the report said a rebuild is underway now. Lots of seeds in the ground, and we wait for the sprouting.

[pierre]

Six month report just out. The financial news is no better - but there's a pretty positive tone to the commentary. Though, I suppose they would be like that, wouldn't they?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Pierre How do you analyse the Woof Woof

[pierre]

PTC - I haven't a clue how to analyse this particular mongrel - not sure anyone else does either. Their words are all fine but the numbers are still horrible.

However, as we know there are a couple of Chinese investors who now hold almost 7% of the shares - perhaps they can assist the entree in to the China market and get some sales moving. Or, maybe they flew in on a Sky City sponsored Southern China flight and thought Blis was a better bet than the high rollers' room at the Casino - either way the odds appear to be against them.

Still, we live in hope of a takeover bid at a massive price of a least 2 cents per share - then we wont have to analyse anything.

[simla]

haven't a clue how to analyse this
That's certainly the problem. At the heart of this mystery is the most remarkable fact. The product is available through a stack of companies overseas. Do the maths, and any one of those companies would be making millions of dollars a year if they got sales levels in their country to match sales in NZ on a per capita basis, which are hardly huge revenues anyway. Where's the road block?

[winner69]

Where's the road block?

Maybe the product itself

[simla]

Yes, that's an obvious possibility, given that's it's new technology. But per capita sales here are in the order of hundreds of times greater than overseas. NZers just can't be that different. There has to be something else.

[emearg]

Where's the road block?

Maybe the product itself

So the product is okay in NZ but not overseas? Please explain.

[Nigel]

New website under development...

Blis have put a screenshot on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471280746248814&set=a.106965989346960.4166.106885549355004&type=1&theater

[Nigel]

I think Blis should employ me as a subliminal sales specialist.

I visited New World Victoria Park yesterday after work to pick up some Blis K12 ice cream. I slid open the freezer door, and pulled out a tub, and started to read the label. My unique skills as a subliminal sales superstar made the Chinese lady passing behind me stop in her tracks and gravitate towards the ice cream freezer. She looked at the Blis ice cream in my hand, and reached in to grab another tub (naturally, the same flavour as I was holding). I read the label, she read the label. I checked the ingredients, she checked the ingredients. Through masterful use of non-verbal communication, psychology and Jedi mind-tricks, I closed the sale - the lovely Chinese lady popped the tub in her shopping trolley and was on her way.

Now, if I can just repeat this around half a million times during the next 12 months, we'll be sweet.

Interestingly, the girl at the check-out also commented that it's a great ice cream. And I must say, my wife and I were very impressed with the taste (I bought the Nuts About Chocolate flavour).

The price is a bit steep for my frugal nature, but I do like the idea of eating something that tastes delicious, is made from decent ingredients (milk, eggs etc rather than chock-full of chemicals like the cheap stuff I usually buy), and is supporting my immune system.

Anyways, good people at Blis.... keep up the good work, and let me know when you're hiring subliminal sales staff in Auckland. I'm keen :)

[Chippie]

Hi Nigel, your post is very funny, keep them coming.

It is interesting as the Staff at New World in Wgtn also made positive comments about the ice cream. We tried both and my kids like the Pineapple chunks flavour.

cheers

[Nigel]

Another screenshot from the new website... (for anyone that's interested)
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471782536198635&set=a.106965989346960.4166.106885549355004&type=1&theater

Looks a lot cleaner and more professional than the existing site. It seems easier to navigate your way around, with key messages prominently displayed.

First impressions are very promising.

[simla]

They're both professional, but that second one is the far more powerful marketing message - simple, instantly clear, obvious, less wordy - so that stuff should make it onto the front page I'd say. And it's got that bright clinical look that Sparky wanted too. Good.

[Nigel]

And another...
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=472050806171808&set=a.106965989346960.4166.106885549355004&type=1&theater

[blobbles]

Their new site looks good!

Regarding the company, currently they have around 669m shares issued. Are they likely to do a 10:1 deal in the future? (i.e. reducing the number of shares from 669 million to 66.9 million, not sure what you call it, the opposite to a share split!)

This seems like a company with excellent products, I just see that the company seems to be a bit slack on growth and product dev. I guess they need capital for that though.

I am in China learning Chinese at the moment. I think with a bit of guangxi (personal relationship development), the right product mix, approval from the Chinese government... the sky is the limit for health products from NZ in this market. Health/wellbeing is virtually the Chinese peoples number 1 priority in life and NZ is seen as a place with incredibly safe and reliable food safety. Already we have a number of western brands appearing in the pharmacies here mainly selling vitamins, but I can't see any probiotics yet. With the potential first to market advantage here plus integration into foods...

[Nigel]

Another screenshot of the new site...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=473732379336984&set=a.106965989346960.4166.106885549355004&type=1&theater

And a quick update on my paranormal selling abiliites... (following on from last week's episode where a random Chinese lady sidled up next to me at the freezer and bought the same Blis probiotic icecream that I was holding)... I was in another New World yesterday, picked up a Terry's Chocolate Orange [I mean, really, who buys those, apart from me?] and low and behold, another random Chinese lady stops in her tracks reaches out, takes a Terry's Chocolate Orange off the shelf and reads the packaging. A few minutes later, I saw her in another aisle, with nothing in her basket except a lonely Terry's Chocolate Orange.

I think I have some sort of talent or skill here. I'm just working out how to best profit from it.

[pierre]

BLT have released their new web site - and I must say it is dramatic improvement on the old clunker. Nice to see some of our dosh being invested wisely into a web presence that should definitely help to gain traction in sales volume and $$.

Well done Blis - the new site looks very professional.

[blobbles]

Should see their share price jump up to $5 over the next few days (wishful thinking?)

Looks very good, site is here to avoid google searches: http://blis.co.nz/

[pierre]

Should see their share price jump up to $5 over the next few days (wishful thinking?)

Looks very good, site is here to avoid google searches: http://blis.co.nz/

Your thinking is way too small Blobbles - I see $10 as the minimum SP within the next week. (Though I have to say even 10 cents would be pretty appealing!)

[emearg]

They're both professional...

Does somebody getting paid to spend some time doing this while not too busy on other stuff at Blis make this professional? If yes then yes it is professional!

Personally it reminds me of something I created when learning to use MS Frontpage in 1997 or 98 when I made no attempt to structure information in a coherent manner as I was just playing with it's UI. Lots of colours. Lots of different sized fonts. No adherence to standards e.g. blue text that isn't a hyperlink! Use of frames. It was unacceptable then and it was disgraceful in 2012!!

I would have shot myself back then if this site was associated with me professionally.

Thankfully neither I, nor the old webmaster are involved in websites these days...

The new homepage looks good. I will have a good nosey later but my first impression is that it doesn't suck. I'm real happy about that.

[emearg]

FYI I went to the dentist yesterday. It was the quickest and least painful dentistry appointment ever. Feedback was my teeth are in excellent condition. This is different to last year when I had lots of tartar and was told to floss several times daily.

What has changed? Not the flossing as I still only remember to do it once or twice a week. Not the brushing and I still do that twice a day. It could be the M18 which I started taking it in Feb 12. As noted previously I have seen far less tartar build up on a tooth where it used to be extreme!

Even if you think Blis is a terrible investment I recommend you start using M18. I take one lozenge a day of the following product. They say take two but I figure one is plenty based on the number of bacteria in each lozenge.
http://www.betterlife.com/product/adults-dental-care-probiotic-lozenges-peppermint/34888

Oh and as I haven't had more than a minor case of sniffles (which go away in less than a day) in at least six years I highly recommend you all start taking K12. I take one lozenge every day. At night. When I go to sleep They (K12 and M18) take several hours to dissolve.
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-exec/PNAME/Ear-Nose-and-Throat-Shield/product_id/57807

And if you have kids get them to take K12 every day. It will make next winter much more pleasant! You can thank me later...

[Nigel]

I'm liking the new site. I'm not a massive fan of having so much content on a page (i.e. that you have to scroll heaps to see the information - I think there's a place for cutting out some content, or having separate pages etc).

But overall, it looks 1000 times more professional, and it's pretty easy to find your way around.

Well done Blis folk :)

[simla]

Does the site have credibility? Yes. Is it easy to use? Yes. Does it support people who want to know more? Yes.

Most importantly, is it well structured to drive sales? Seems like it. And well supported by the Facebook page drawing people in hopefully.

I'm happy.

Blis keeps improving its tactical position. It's got to start paying off sometime, and it's hard to see how that isn't going to be sooner rather than later. We'll see.

[scamper]

Good site, but its much more fun to chomp into their Pineapple Chunk Icecream -- very delicious!
And, only gourmet taste -- I didn't sense any 'probiotic' taste or aftertaste at all.
But, bit expensive -- definitely for those gourmet occasions. Cheers

[blissfool]

Does the site have credibility? Yes. Is it easy to use? Yes. Does it support people who want to know more? Yes.

Most importantly, is it well structured to drive sales? Seems like it. And well supported by the Facebook page drawing people in hopefully.

I'm happy.

Blis keeps improving its tactical position. It's got to start paying off sometime, and it's hard to see how that isn't going to be sooner rather than later. We'll see.


I agree with the general consensus a far better web site. One improvement could be made and thats a refernce or link to the ice cream. I feel a Mary Poppins refence or song coming, just a spoon full of "ice cream" helps the medicine go down.

[Nigel]

Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised by the taste of the ice cream. A comment on here last year from a friendly detractor suggested it wasn't the greatest taste, but after my first mouthful I was hooked. It's really nice AND has health benefits. What a combination :)

[pietrade]

Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised by the taste of the ice cream. A comment on here last year from a friendly detractor suggested it wasn't the greatest taste, but after my first mouthful I was hooked. It's really nice AND has health benefits. What a combination :)

I see you're in Ak.and wonder where you found the icecream?

[fungus pudding]

Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised by the taste of the ice cream. A comment on here last year from a friendly detractor suggested it wasn't the greatest taste, but after my first mouthful I was hooked. It's really nice AND has health benefits. What a combination :)

I assume I am that friendly detractor. There's nothing wrong with the taste, as in the flavour. It's just that the ice-cream is icy junk. Not at all like the creamy ice-cream NZ is noted for. As it is it will never sell in any meaningful quantity.

[Nigel]

I assume I am that friendly detractor. There's nothing wrong with the taste, as in the flavour. It's just that the ice-cream is icy junk. Not at all like the creamy ice-cream NZ is noted for. As it is it will never sell in any meaningful quantity.

Ah, I'm with you. (and yes, you may have been our friendly detractor.. who happens to talk a lot of common sense quite often I might add).
I've noticed that it is quite hard when I take the tub out of the freezer (although so are the other brands that I buy). I tend let it sit for 5 minutes or so before eating it, to get more of a smooth, creamy texture. I must say, when I bought it in the city, I had a 25 minute drive home, so by the time I tried it at home (after some healthy thawing) it was absolutely divine.

I bought it at New World at Victoria Park. I don't know that it's available at other stores yet but hopefully it spreads to a wider market soon.

[scamper]

I also bought my Pineapple Chunk Blis icecream at New World.
Didn't get any sense of icy junk at all, in fact very gourmet creamy.

[emearg]

I assume I am that friendly detractor. There's nothing wrong with the taste, as in the flavour. It's just that the ice-cream is icy junk. Not at all like the creamy ice-cream NZ is noted for. As it is it will never sell in any meaningful quantity.

Perhaps you got a bad one FP? Maybe it had defrosted to an extent in transit and then refrozen?

Or perhaps by the time you got to the checkout and then home it had partially melted?

Personally I can't comment on the icy or creamy qualities as the nearest New World that stocks it is too far from my home and it would melt on the trip to my freezer. I have had this issue with other ice creams that are normally creamy. And just in case you are wondering...ice cream is always the last thing I put in my trolley on the way to the checkout :)

I shall wait until it gets to my local and then provide my personal thoughts :)

[Nigel]

I googled New World and gourmet icecream... and got an email address for Albany New World. I emailed the guy there and apparently they have the Nuts About Choclate flavour, but have sold out of the Pineapple Lump one. Good to see it's not just Victoria Park, and good to see the stuff is selling!

[fungus pudding]

Perhaps you got a bad one FP? Maybe it had defrosted to an extent in transit and then refrozen?

Or perhaps by the time you got to the checkout and then home it had partially melted?

Personally I can't comment on the icy or creamy qualities as the nearest New World that stocks it is too far from my home and it would melt on the trip to my freezer. I have had this issue with other ice creams that are normally creamy. And just in case you are wondering...ice cream is always the last thing I put in my trolley on the way to the checkout :)

I shall wait until it gets to my local and then provide my personal thoughts :)

No. I bought it from the Dunedin outlet. I don't think any Dunedin shops stock it anymore. It's no diiferent from the stuff that Gourmet have made for years before Blis bought it. I'll stick by my original predictions - it won't sell.

[emearg]

No. I bought it from the Dunedin outlet. I don't think any Dunedin shops stock it anymore. It's no diiferent from the stuff that Gourmet have made for years before Blis bought it. I'll stick by my original predictions - it won't sell.

Okay :)

Hopefully you're proven wrong. Time will tell...

[Stu]

I'd also like to see the ice cream product featured on the main Blis website, or at the very least have the Gourmet site updated.
They need to look at Kohu Road Icecream labeling and website and basically just copy it, then add info on probiotics, they already have a massive price advantage. I'd expect an added annual cost of under a thousand dollars if they really need an extra website, to explain how it should be served (wait a few minutes until it semi defrosts) and the benefits of the probiotics and natural products.
The notion of functional food is a good one and the decision to go with Gourmet deserves credit but is being let down by a lack of some fairly basic and simple support.

[Stu]

The Blis website is a great improvement but still a little confusing for the customer. Fair enough that the product is useful for 10 different problems but does it need to imply that there are 10 different sets of products? Then different sizes of the same product are on separate pages? Sort of feels like they are trying to overcomplicate the buying process and fill a space. Must be frustrating for the buyer clicking back and forth trying to work out what does what and what the best deal is.
Also an overlay bug on the refresh, not sure there's even a need for the auto refresh.
Definitely moving in the right direction though.

[scamper]

Yo Fungie Pud
Centre City New World had at least three flavours a couple of days ago. Try again! Cheers, Scamper

[fungus pudding]

Yo Fungie Pud
Centre City New World had at least three flavours a couple of days ago. Try again! Cheers, Scamper

No thanks.

[emearg]

I note that the Genome sequencing of K12 was done by Nestle, not Otago University as was the case for M18.

Perhaps they wish to ensure it is completely safe before launching (or seriously considering the possibility of doing so) a product containing it?

Either way, at least Blis didn't have to pay the bill...

[Nigel]

I note that the Genome sequencing of K12 was done by Nestle, not Otago University as was the case for M18.

Perhaps they wish to ensure it is completely safe before launching (or seriously considering the possibility of doing so) a product containing it?

Either way, at least Blis didn't have to pay the bill...


Why wasn't this an announcement on the NZX?! It's a significant milestone!

Scientists map genome for BLIS K12 probiotic
Europe-based scientists have mapped the genome of the probiotic BLIS K12 strain, finding no negative traits and supporting the safety of the strain.
http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Research/Scientists-map-genome-for-BLIS-K12-probiotic

[emearg]

Why wasn't this an announcement on the NZX?! It's a significant milestone!

Scientists map genome for BLIS K12 probiotic
Europe-based scientists have mapped the genome of the probiotic BLIS K12 strain, finding no negative traits and supporting the safety of the strain.
http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Research/Scientists-map-genome-for-BLIS-K12-probiotic

It was noted in the half year report.

[brucea]

Thanks Nigel - I will go to the Victoria park outlet tomorrow to buy the ice cream there as I have yet to try it. It's great that M18 is available in NZ now as it is a whole lot cheaper than air freighting it out from the US


I googled New World and gourmet icecream... and got an email address for Albany New World. I emailed the guy there and apparently they have the Nuts About Choclate flavour, but have sold out of the Pineapple Lump one. Good to see it's not just Victoria Park, and good to see the stuff is selling!

[Nigel]

Thanks Nigel - I will go to the Victoria park outlet tomorrow to buy the ice cream there as I have yet to try it. It's great that M18 is available in NZ now as it is a whole lot cheaper than air freighting it out from the US

I went back tonight to get some more (at $9 a litre, I probably shouldn't... but it's such a tasty way to get my K12 dose!). It looks like it's been selling well - by my estimate, the Blis stocks were 75%+ sold. The 'Nuts about chocolate' flavor was sold-out, so Bruce you'll have to go for Chocolate, Vanilla or Pineapple Chunk (which is the one I got tonight). There was one tub of Brandy Snap left too (that doesn't have K12 though). Not sure why it hasn't all been restocked - maybe they were just sent one consignment as a trial. Or maybe they have been re-stocking but it just keeps flying out the door (wishful thinking maybe). :)

[emearg]

New Italian research proves the benefit of BLIS K12 probiotic in Children

BLIS Technologies Ltd (NZX:BLT) announces the publication of an independent
research study into the effectiveness of BLIS K12 oral cavity probiotic for
preventing ear and throat infections in children. Published this month in
the International Journal of General Medicine, an Italian research team
demonstrated that they could prevent the reoccurrence of common childhood ear
and throat infections, such as otitis media (glue ear) and tonsillitis by
around 40% and 90% respectively. Conducted over 3 years, 82 children aged
between 4-5years with a history of recurrent ear and throat infection, were
recruited for this study to determine the effect of 90 days
of treatment with
either the BLIS K12 probiotic or a placebo. Researchers concluded
"Prophylactic administration of S. salivarius K12 [BLIS K12 probiotic] to
children with a history of recurrent oral streptococcal pathology reduced
episodes of streptococcal pharyngeal infections and/or tonsillitis as well as
episodes of acute otitis media."

Di Pierro, F., et al. (2012). Preliminary paediatric clinical evaluation of
the oral probiotic Streptococcus salivarius K12 in preventing recurrent
pharyngitis and/or tonsillitis caused by Streptococcus pyogenes and recurrent
acute otitis media. International Journal of General Medicine, 5, 991-7.
doi:10.2147/IJGM.S38859

In commenting after the publication of this landmark Italian research study,
Dr Barry Richardson said, "We know that BLIS K12 probiotic, when taken on a
daily basis, is very effective at establishing itself inside the mouth and
throat. This is important because BLIS K12 has evolved a number of defense
mechanisms, which protects
it from other invading bacteria, such as those
known to cause tonsillitis etc; and by protecting itself from harmful
bacteria, BLIS K12 also protects us from harmful bacteria." Dr Richardson
described a recent example of a customer who had a specific condition, which
made them very susceptible to oral candidiasis (oral thrush) with recurrent
episodes every 4-6 weeks. At the direction of a pharmacist they started
taking one BLIS K12 lozenge a day back in June and to date, they have
remained symptom free.

Dr Richardson said that in a week where the New Zealand Government was urged
to address the causes of childhood poverty because of the increasing number
of children being hospitalised for poverty-related conditions such as
tonsillitis, BLIS Technologies is pleased to be associated with The Salvation
Army in New Zealand. "We have joined forces and are now giving away free BLIS
K12 lozenges to the children and their families in the lower South Island,
who The Salvation Army has determi
ned are in need of additional welfare and
likely to be at higher risk from tonsillitis. While we can't change the big
social issue of poverty; we can take practical steps to help alleviate
poverty related illnesses such as tonsillitis and rheumatic fever" Richardson
said.

The success of this product is also getting through to mainstream New Zealand
consumers. Market research data that tracks product sales throughout New
Zealand pharmacies, showed that while the cough and cold market contracted by
1% for the 12 months to September 2012, the BLIS "Throat Guard" range of BLIS
K12 probiotic lozenges actually grew a healthy 11.6% in unit sales over the
past year.

[emearg]

Yes we know all that already. It's the whole reason for why Blis, the company, exists. That doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. There's nothing particularly new here.


Those numbers are significant and not something we have seen before. 90% reduction in reoccurrence of tonsillitis! That is huge.


The other significance is that the research is independent. It has far more credibility that if it was to come from Blis.





What we want to know about is sales, and how the company is going to translate research findings like the above into sales. And this is an area of enormous and historic challenge and weakness in New Zealand management. The translation of scientific discoveries into profitable products and businesses. We do not as a country have a high success rate in doing that.
Yes we do. This news, along with others will make it easier for Stratum to sell the ingredient to others. It isn't being left in the hands of New Zealand management.



And publications like the above make it all the more astounding to me about why Bliss is spending $400k of money it doesn't really have on more science into doggy bad breath...


Last time the pet research was discussed you were asking how much would it cost? And now you are saying it will be 400k. Where did you get that number from?



What is it making, I'm confused? Products for humans or products for dogs? This just sends out mixed messages about what the product is for and leaves consumers confused.


Ummm, this isn't being sent to consumers. I can't think why this will confuse anybody at the local chemist?


I don't think continuing research that could be commercialised is a terrible thing. Or would you prefer a one legged pony? If you are an investor why did you invest when Blis have made it clear for years they were continuing to do research in the hope that they could commercialise more than just K12. The first of those additional products (M18) has been rolled out over the past couple of years.





...and not spending that money and promoting sales.


Last time this was discussed I asked:
"How much do you think they should spend on the NZ advertising campaign? And how much extra revenue would you expect from this in year one?"


Do you want to provide your thoughts now?

[Nigel]

And at 0.01c per share, I think I've got a lot more company than you do!

A shareprice, per se, is irrelevant. You need to look at Market Cap. The shareprice could be shifted to 10c or $1 via a share consolidation, yet the Market Cap would stay the same. In terms of 'image', maybe that's something Blis should consider. As it is, $6.5mil seems very cheap in my mind for a company with such strong IP, existing income stream (that just needs to be grown through effective marketing) and international patents over a scientifically-proven product that has such significant benefits for people's health. Now that Nestle has completed the mapping of the K12 genome and shown it to be safe, I wouldn't be surprised to see some action from them re a new application of the product.

I think the 'rebuttals' provided by emearg were on the mark. This is independent research that further strengthens the 'saleability' of our product - it combats some of the cynicism around the efficacy of probiotic products and will provide some welcome attention to the benefits of K12. As emearg pointed out, the results from the study were pretty convincing - it's this sort of research that will open doors to some big deals.

David, you also make an important point about the need to translate a solid product into sales. I'm trusting that Stratum have the skills to leverage studies such as that announced today to build sales globally.

[emearg]

No, because I've got better things to do with my time. Although I stand by everything I said and do not consider your comments sufficient to constitute rebuttals of the various points I raise. That's the way you see it. I don't. And at 0.01c per share, I think I've got a lot more company than you do!

By the way, I don't own any Bliss shares. Never have and probably never will.

I was very interested in what you would do differently and what you would expect from those changes. And where some of your data came from. Sorry that you are too busy to answer me properly.

The company is worth a hundred times more than you seem to think...

[Nigel]

The company is worth a hundred times more than you seem to think...

Good point. I missed that. :) If only he owned some - you could have made an offer to buy his holding at 0.02 cents per share!

[simla]

90% reduction in reoccurrence of tonsillitis!

If any other company had just announced a 90% success rate in dealing with recurrent tonsilitis, people would be looking up with very much interest. And 40% success with recurrent glue ear is hardly small news to very many parents whose lives are driven mad by this problem.

I think David's attitude to the share price being right is a very common view and I've long since given up arguing. But I don't agree with that logic, even though I can see the weight of it. A2 Milk was 6 cents three years ago and is now 52. Pacific Edge was 7 cents at the time, now 42. Diligent was 10 cents, now $5.

David is quite correct that we need income to prove the point. On the other hand, Blis has now paid for some real assets, like K12, GRAS, Europe, China, M18, Q24 (somewhat), dog products somewhat (estimated on the market next year remember), numerous business partners, a strong NZ market position, an ice cream company, valuable food technology... so presumably much of the income in future can go straight to the bottom line. Well see.

By the way, people should try the Gourmet roulade. A seriously nice product that would go very well in many dinner parties I imagine. It has started showing up in many supermarkets here in Wellington now, after being very hard to find before that. And did people notice the Brandy Snap ice cream is now in the same flat-pack format as the Blis ice cream, where it used to be in pottles? Capitalising on market position gained? Blis ice cream is very visibly positioned in some supermarkets now.

I certainly can't see the fat lady anywhere near this company as it stands presently. Next year will certainly be an interesting one to watch. This year was certainly tough on shareholders, but I could see that changing with any reasonable tailwind of luck. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Stu]

No, because I've got better things to do with my time. Although I stand by everything I said and do not consider your comments sufficient to constitute rebuttals of the various points I raise. That's the way you see it. I don't. And at 0.01c per share, I think I've got a lot more company than you do!

By the way, I don't own any Bliss shares. Never have and probably never will.
It's a bit of a red flag when a poster refuses to answer specifics after posting on a thread he claims to have no interest in. Generally to be taken (for what it's worth) as a slight positive mid to long term.

[pierre]

A 10% jump in the SP today - somebody likes the latest anoouncement.

Can't help feeling that a share consolidation would be a good idea though to get BLT out of the penny dreadful category. A 1 for 10 deal would at least get it into the 10cent dreadful department. It might also attract a bit of market interest and add a modicum of credibility to the business - maybe!

[scamper]

pierre, it might be a 'big jump', but only $1100 spent.
i'll go and eat more Pineapple chunk icecream before the company fails completely!

[emearg]

pierre, it might be a 'big jump', but only $1100 spent.
i'll go and eat more Pineapple chunk icecream before the company fails completely!

Thanks Scamper, good to see you doing your bit :)

The $1100 spent you refer to is todays trading. Pierre was referring to yesterdays which was much higher! About 4k! ;)

[emearg]

Anyone interested in reading the article can find it here:
www.dovepress.com/getfile.php?fileID=14609

[pierre]

I doubt a share consolidation would change much. A big sales deal would drive the price up to 10c far more sustainably abd give BLIS the modicum of credibility you refer to.

BLIS is priced at 1c, not because it has too many shares on offer, but because people think its a failed company. That's what needs to be addressed.

Of course you're right Sparky - sales (and profits) are what BLT needs to achieve credibility and a decent SP. Meanwhile, I guess I'll have to wait and hope that my seven digit shareholding in BLT will one day be worth the same number of dollars!

[emearg]

Can't help feeling that a share consolidation would be a good idea though to get BLT out of the penny dreadful category. A 1 for 10 deal would at least get it into the 10cent dreadful department. It might also attract a bit of market interest and add a modicum of credibility to the business - maybe!

I don't think so. The share price would fall back to penny dreadful status pretty quickly unless Blis produces better financial results. Without those or an announcement of a serious product launch (Nestle rolling out a food product would be an example) the share price is where it belongs in my opinion.

[Nigel]

I don't think so. The share price would fall back to penny dreadful status pretty quickly unless Blis produces better financial results.

If there was a share consolidation (to 10 cents per share, for example), there's no reason the price would drift lower again - certainly not back to 1 cent! If it *did*, then the market cap would be in the vicinity of $700k! I'd be mortgaging the house and buying the whole company at that price!

[Dej]

Anyone interested in reading the article can find it here:
www.dovepress.com/getfile.php?fileID=14609 (http://www.dovepress.com/getfile.php?fileID=14609)

The paper here is Italian (generally bad news - just think of Berlusconi!) and is really a pilot study. It is small, poorly controlled, unblinded, and has been done without ethics committee assent - it is after all, Italy! The results are encouraging, and support the general promotion that BLIS already uses. The authors say they are going to do a bigger study, which would certainly be needed.

As it is a “probiotic”, it is a nutriceutical and is not a registered medicine, so it can get away with relatively weak science data and generalisations about “supporting healthy” gums/ears/immunity and so on.

I think - but am not certain - that BLIS has not done as well as they might have liked with these bacterial probiotics. They have been going for quite a long time. I personally think that taking capsules full of bacteria is a hard sell, although techniques like BLIS Ice Cream is a good endeavor. However, should the major study come through positive - Probably 2 years away - BLIS might get a bit more cut through in the medical community.

I was with a friend of mine the other day who is very interested in these sort of companies and this is what he had to say about the paper:

"This paper is not the dawning of the new age but could be a good indicator for the future."

I have mixed feelings about the stock. The new distributor is a good sign, and there is definitely room to grow especially if they can break into Europe.

Guess we will see in March, or before then. Good luck to all those holding. You could make a ‘healthy’ return.

:)

[Dej]

Also another point. They say in the article the following:

"“Each year, cardiovascular disease kills more Americans than cancer. And while most people are aware that lifestyle choices such as eating right, getting enough exercise and quitting smoking can help prevent cardiovascular disease, they may not know that by just brushing and flossing their teeth each day, they might also be avoiding this potentially lethal condition.”

This refers to the well known correlation between gingivitis and cardiovascular disease. This correlation is quite well established. It appears that people admitted to hospital with CV disease have an increased incidence of gum disease and bacterial colonisation of the mouth. There is no way to test the causal connection. That is, if you take normal people without gingivitis and give them gingivitis, do they also get CV disease. This is not ethically possible to do. So it is not at all certain that gingivitis causes CV disease (or pancreatic cancer, arthritis and so on which also turn up more often in people with gingivitis), and no proof that I have seen that elimination of gingivitis reduces your risk of CV disease.

This is the classic causal conundrum. The rise in lung cancer from 1950- 1980, or thereabouts, correlated well with the rise in the number of TV sets in households! But did it cause it? No is the correct answer.

So, if the company is trying to make the connection between giving BLIS for prevention of gum disease, and a possible effect on CV disease, there is a lot of proof needed along the way to make the case watertight IMHO.

[emearg]

Also another point. They say in the article the following:

"“Each year, cardiovascular disease kills more Americans than cancer. And while most people are aware that lifestyle choices such as eating right, getting enough exercise and quitting smoking can help prevent cardiovascular disease, they may not know that by just brushing and flossing their teeth each day, they might also be avoiding this potentially lethal condition."

Where are they saying that? I can't see that via the link I provided.

[Dej]

Where are they saying that? I can't see that via the link I provided.

Sorry, didnt mean the article, I meant the 2012 Annual Report, my own fault! Sorry!

Page 6, if I remember correctly.

For your convience:

http://blis.co.nz/media/pdf/blis_annual_report.pdf

Don't get me wrong, I wish all the best for BLIS, it could be onto something, just offering what I know. Thats what forums are for anyway, right? :)

[emearg]

Sorry, didnt mean the article, I meant the 2012 Annual Report, my own fault! Sorry!

Page 6, if I remember correctly.

For your convience:

http://blis.co.nz/media/pdf/blis_annual_report.pdf

Don't get me wrong, I wish all the best for BLIS, it could be onto something, just offering what I know. Thats what forums are for anyway, right? :)

Thanks for clarifying :)

Yes that is what forums are for and your input is appreciated!

Currently Blis don't claim that when advertising M18 to the public...at least not as far as I am aware. I remember a few years back seeing a product sheet with the approved claims and wording that product makers were able to use when labeling/marketing Blis K12 products. They probably have something similar for M18. They seem pretty smart about how they approach this aspect of their business.

[Dej]

They seem pretty smart about how they approach this aspect of their business.

Most medically based companies have to be very careful about how they advertise their products and what they can and cant say about them. Usually there is a lot of 'coulds' and 'mays' that get thrown around and you have to look past the padding to get the whole story (not saying Blis do this - but it is common).

Im pressuming you have a holding in Blis emearg? All the best to you if you do, it will be an interesting stock to watch next year.

[emearg]

Most medically based companies have to be very careful about how they advertise their products and what they can and cant say about them. Usually there is a lot of 'coulds' and 'mays' that get thrown around and you have to look past the padding to get the whole story (not saying Blis do this - but it is common).

Yes they do use those words but it makes sense. They're not claiming it 'will' stop you getting strep throat or bad breath or whatever but 'may' reduce the incidence/severity/whatever. A 100% success rate would be better than most things can achieve, including many drugs I would have thought?


The independence of the Italian findings is good in my mind despite your comments (which are quite valid). One hears, and you may be more aware than most, that most drug companies often manipulate the findings of studies funded by them to suit the results they want. At least Blis had nothing to do with this one.

There is a growing list of independent research on K12 out there. It is all positive. Pity it hasn't equalled dollars yet (and may not).




Im pressuming you have a holding in Blis emearg? All the best to you if you do, it will be an interesting stock to watch next year.

Yup. Thanks. It has been an interesting (but loss making) stock to watch for a while now. If the world doesn't end today (so far so good) 2013 may be the year I realise I am completely mad and sell my Blis shares.

[Nigel]

2013 may be the year I realise I am completely mad and sell my Blis shares.

...or the year you quadruple your money! This stock used to trade a lot higher, and it's in much better position now than it was back then. I think it has just taken so long for us to get to this position, that many people have given up. I'm still expecting big things from this company.

[simla]

If the world doesn't end today (so far so good) 2013 may be the year I realise I am completely mad and sell my Blis shares.

Emearg, your comments are getting quite negative lately! I really feel people are not reacting to the current reality on Blis, which I don't think is nearly as negative as people let on.

Either Blis fails or it succeeds. It can't stay here in the twilight zone forever. Everything is now in place except new sales via the new distributor. That will happen or it won't, but I can't see why it shouldn't.

It's not as if Blis even needs to get too much more in sales to make a profit. The November update was for another 500k loss this half, half of which is just depreciation etc. (p14 last report.) That's a real operating loss of of just 250k, isn't it? In a forecast when they are expecting no uplift in sales?

If any sort of uplift in sales happens, surely we're away? So in calling this madness, are you saying those sales won't happen? We have yet to see any sales as a result of gaining GRAS, China or Europe, as it's too early. Are none of those going to happen, let alone an uplift in existing sales via the new distributor? Or any sales of the new dog products next year? Or Q24? etc.

It's been two years of confusing and disappointing results, yes. But that's not actually that long. I can't understand why the market is so unforgiving of Blis, I really can't.

As to Dej's comments, that's all quite fair. However, I certainly hope that Blis isn't doomed to make losses forever unless thay can categorically prove that they have cured heart disease!!! The reality is that Blis only has to sell the tiniest part of the world's probiotic revenues to do quite nicely.

Myself, I think that the company is scrupulously opposed to making false predictions to the point of not making encouraging noises. Most company's will present the facts and also say how optimistic they are in light of those facts, but Blis only ever presents the facts and leaves us to our own conclusions. It's part of the same behaviour pattern that produces the scrupulous research results that you admire. But it does leave us having to find our own encouragement a lot of the time. It's probably the hardest part of being a Blis shareholder.

Emearg, you're probably just tired before Christmas! Either way, I certainly see no point in abandoning the chase at this stage. 2012 was a blisteringly tough year for the company on a number of fronts. In particular it got caught with a low share price and low sales and needing cash from shareholders. If it was going to fold, that was the time, in my opinion. (And I was definitely not expecting it to fold.) It didn't and my own feeling - completely subjective - is that it now been through the valley of death and we can look forward to happier times after that. If I had a crystal ball, I would guarantee that for you! Alas, this is merely my own gut feeling. But I will be acting on it for next year myself.

[simla]

...or the year you quadruple your money!
I'm hoping for more than that. I posted some maths the other day but deleted it as it sounded too rosy. But people might find it interesting to fiddle with a few figures some time.

[simla]

Yes, this might be grim tidings for some.

Or not. I feel for people with shareholdings from way back. But if people aren't willing to support the company any more, I'm not sure how many rights they can expect. That's just $250 of shares at the present price.

The share register has sorted itself out over the last year or three into those who have supported recently and those who haven't. The company will be stronger if people have to decide whether to buy in or jump out, I would have thought.

[pierre]

I think topping up a holding of fewer than 25,000 shares should hardly be a drama for most people Sparky - it'll only require an outlay of up to $250 after all!

But maybe this programme will create some market demand and we could see another 10% leap in the SP- yay!

[simla]

That sending $15 of printed report every year to people who won't invest in the company is a mugs game?

[simla]

Sparky, I see your point. But the company can't live in the past forever. These people have chosen to not invest anything new in the company for many years now. There is no other way of having that size holding.

I have been very supportive of shareholders for several years, in particular by doing so much internet resarch for so long. But one of the reasons I stopped was I got sick and tired of the constant barrage of negativity. It completely defeats me to understand why people are so down on Blis. For example, PEB has had a huge rise in share price, which they probably deserve as I expect they will get there. But for goodness sakes, yesterday's release said "one urologist [used over 30 tests in six months]". Yes, that's promising news for PEB. But is Blis really worth 43 times less than PEB because of that piece of news?

Somewhere along the line Blis turned into the sharemarket's whipping boy. With that, my sympathy withered a bit. It makes me very cross to see such talented people working so very hard at Blis and yet for people to insist on the right to criticise and undercut them, but Blis is expected to just sit there and take it on the chin with never any expectation of support back on shareholders? No.

Blis needs to protect it's position at present. Cutting back on shareholders who aren't supporting the company to the point of even $250 doesn't seem harsh to me. These people obviously haven't switched to email either, or the company wouldn't have bothered. This is a far better option than the earlier suggestion of delisting to save on costs.

We know that the company needs cash. I think it very probable they will get it this coming year. But if and until then they have to keep protecting their position.

[simla]

By the way, these people are NOT being dumped. They ARE being asked to put up another $100 or so to show their ongoing interest in Blis in order to justify Blis still spending money on them every year. And obviously the company believes they will get a return on that investment as well. Blis is asking them to show some commitment to Blis in return for Blis spending scarce money on them.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Simla it would be good if it would buy the shares in bulk so that No brokerage was payable on the top up shares. In a lot of cases the brokerage would be more than the share cost. And the same if they tried to sell the brokerage would be more than the shares are worth.

[simla]

Yep, fully agree with you. However, $30 brokerage on 10,000 shares only increases the price 0.3 cents per share. Nobody would bother buying them if they thought 0.3 cents was make or break on the deal.

Hey, this isn't an ideal situation. But neither is a ton of people owning an investment for a decade that they aren't prepared to even put $100 or so into. Life isn't always fair.

[emearg]

Sorry, had to post something cruel.

"Shareholders, you are not wanted. We will compulsorily take your shares and sell them, deducting broker costs, and then either send you the money or give the pittance to charity. Merry Xmas."

An informed shareholder will be aware there is a minimum holding requirement so this shouldn't come as a huge surprise. I personally have been hoping for several years they would do this. I can recall at least one other company doing this in the past.

2012 AR figures suggest this will affect 1,600 holders. Out of 2,526

[emearg]

By the way, these people are NOT being dumped. They ARE being asked to put up another $100 or so to show their ongoing interest in Blis in order to justify Blis still spending money on them every year. And obviously the company believes they will get a return on that investment as well. Blis is asking them to show some commitment to Blis in return for Blis spending scarce money on them.

Unless they do something beyond their original intentions they are being dumped. Investing more is one option. The other two options involved being dumped.

Personally I don't have a problem with this as they are a cost that Blis can't afford. Not a great place for Blis to be STC, but it is reality.

[emearg]

They did invest in the company.That's why they're shareholders! They were, in all likelihood, the first believers in the product and company. Can't Blis work out how to move to an online share registry that sends everything by email, and then only post out to people who don't have email?

They have but you have to opt out of receiving things in the mail. I suspect many of these people haven't opted out and Blis still have to send them reports and everything else.

Even if you do opt out, some stuff has to go through the mail. Voting papers etc. That is many thousands each time they send something. And for what? To hear what the holders of less than 1% of the stock thinks? Assuming they respond? It is fair and the process but is it sensible in this case?

[emearg]

Emearg, your comments are getting quite negative lately! I really feel people are not reacting to the current reality on Blis, which I don't think is nearly as negative as people let on.

I saw your post the other day before you deleted it and before I had a chance to respond you had removed it. You were talking about the potential of Blis and saying the market isn't taking the potential into account which you can't understand.

You're right they're not but it is completely understandable. For a dozen years Blis has had great, and ever increasing potential. The problem is it hasn't been realised in the shape of a dollar sign. The market has given up pricing in potential and is just pricing in results. That explains the share price.

Should Blis actually realise it's potential by bring in some decent revenue the share price will go up.

Should Blis do this several reporting periods in a row the share price will go up.

Should Blis make a profit the share price will go up.

Should Blis make profits several reporting periods in a row the share price will go up.

Should Blis start paying dividends the share price will go up.

If Blis makes it then the seven million market cap will seem rather amusing looking back. Until then it seems fair to generous.

[emearg]

Again you removed your post Simla! Thanks for the positive feedback. Merry Xmas :)

[simla]

Just a brief message for you really, Emearg, and I was pretty sure you had read it. Not a BLT message, so I removed it.

Merry Christmas to all, and certainly a happier new year to all of us!

[simla]

Throat Guard is now available in some supermarkets. I just visited Countdown Newtown where they have a pharmacy in the supermarket, which means that Blis is just sitting on the supermarket shelves like any other product. Countdown only have two pharmacies in store in NZ so far, but plan more next year and eventually lots apparently. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/7738214/Countdown-plans-in-store-pharmacies Hard to imagine what effect this will have, but can't be bad news.


Since no one is putting up news at present, also Anlit (the Israeli K12 children's product company) was exhibiting in Spain. "CPhI Worldwide 2012: Anlit Showcases New Probiotic" "part of the company's strategy to expand its presence in Spain and Latin American countries" http://blog.goo.ne.jp/mylesparkinson/e/60e6f2d3cd6bc472bcc4040390168205 That's good. Early signs of Blis permeating into Europe?

And many of you will have noticed that Blis M18 has now come out in Strawberry.

And some will have noticed that the share plan has stirred the share price. Interesting to watch.

Also, Alexa reported the Blis web site as ranked 1686 in NZ last January, and now 890. And 1,495,773 in the world, now 295,429. That's excellent progress, which we hope is reflected in sales.

I think 2013 could be quite positive, but we'll see. I posted a link to a blog last year predicting that things would go well in 2012 despite the world plunging into doom and gloom in 2011 (remember how depressed everyone was?). So it has (apart from the Blis share price!) and now he's predicting the same for 2013. He makes the point that Europe is slowly stabilising, while America is actually starting to recover. And people are moving money out of bonds as they stop panicking, and into the share market. We appear to have seen that in the NZ market too.

Here's hoping for a cheerful year.

[Nigel]

Throat Guard is now available in some supermarkets.... Hard to imagine what effect this will have, but can't be bad news.
This is great news. I've always been a bit frustrated that Blis has been 'pharmacy-only', when I know I buy a lot of health products straight from a supermarket. Getting into Countdown via their in-store pharmacies will get the product in front of so many more people. I think this is very promising news - as you say, limited to a couple of supermarkets at the moment but a sign of things to come.



...Anlit (the Israeli K12 children's product company) was exhibiting in Spain ... "part of the company's strategy to expand its presence in Spain and Latin American countries" ... Early signs of Blis permeating into Europe?
With GRAS status in USA and approval for use in China, we're definitely now set for wider global uptake of K12 as an ingredient in various health products. I'm also eagerly anticipating news from Nestle on the specific use they are investigating. That alone could be a massive win for Blis and re-rate the shareprice.

[brucea]

I know there is some strategic reason for not selling Blis in the normal supermarket aisles with the other vitamins, but can someone remind me. After all, Countdown sell St Johns Wort in all supermarkets and Blis products would be much safer with little side effects if any...

[simla]

Blis have a long history now of selling market sectors to their business partners. I'm pretty sure that's what this is, Brucea. By selling only in pharmacies, the pharmacies have made pretty good efforts to increase Blis sales.

[emearg]

I know there is some strategic reason for not selling Blis in the normal supermarket aisles with the other vitamins, but can someone remind me. After all, Countdown sell St Johns Wort in all supermarkets and Blis products would be much safer with little side effects if any...

I recall this was because the original Blis Throat Guard (now called Boost?) came with mouthwash containing a substance which was a pharmacy only product i.e. controlled.

Simla, did you see Boost at Countdown or just the standard product?

[simla]

Not sure, but I think both. They were on the shelf immediately under the pharmacy counter, but still facing directly on to a supermarket aisle where anyone could see them and take them like anything else in the supermarket.

[Nigel]

I'd love to see the last of the shares offered at 1.5 cents taken out and a jump to 1.8! And nearly 10x more shares on the bid than the sell - that's a pretty nice ratio now!

Buyers
2 214,000 $0.014
5 439,000 $0.013
8 642,900 $0.012
4 531,236 $0.011
6 265,000 $0.010
6 1,925,000 $0.009
TOTAL 4,017,136

Sellers
$0.015 17,591 1
$0.018 261,611 2
$0.019 145,000 2
$0.020 40,000 1
TOTAL 464,202 6

[simla]

Some of those buy orders aren't that urgent, Nigel. For instance, if someone was really keen for 1.9m shares, I'm not sure they would bid 0.9c at present. But there definitely seems to be some buying pressure.

Hard to know what to make of it presently. There are indeed some relatively small orders, suggestive of people reacting to the 25,000 limit, but there are some quite solid orders going through too. So far there has been a ready supply of shares for sale, but with the price rising. I wonder what will happen next.

[brucea]

Hi guys, no I am not going bananas, but I came across this interesting article about the use probiotics in the treatment of banana plants infected with Panama disease. Well, I found it interesting! All the best for 2013....

[Nigel]

Hi guys, no I am not going bananas, but I came across this interesting article about the use probiotics in the treatment of banana plants infected with Panama disease. Well, I found it interesting! All the best for 2013....

Um, maybe I'm going bananas, but I can't see the link!

[emearg]

There is no link (or spoon)

[emearg]

Plenty of interest in this stock today. Up to 1.7c which is a significant gain since the cap raising a few months back. Lots of new buy and sell orders being entered today.

I'm not too sure what is driving this as the quantities being bought and sold (and the bids and asks) don't consistently reflect somebody topping up to 25,000 nor does it consistently reflect small holders dumping their shares.

[Nigel]

The chart is now forming nicely - steady rise since late last year with increasing volumes. Both good signs.

I re-read the half-year report again today - while appreciating the underperformance of the past 6 months there is a definite confidence about the viability of their business strategy and pending profitability. Forecast is for a loss this financial year, but the company has finally achieved its goals in terms of regulatory approvals for use of its products in USA, China and Europe, is actively demonstrating applications of its products (eg via ice-cream), has a number of new products in the pipeline (such as topical skin applications for acne/tinea etc and also animal products) and is "positioned for growth".

BLT has amassed an impressive number of patents and trademarks. When these things are successfully marketed (and the early successes with Stratum are encouraging) BLT could fly.

The above should not be considered financial advice - as always, do your own research.

[emearg]

I re-read the half-year report again today - while appreciating the underperformance of the past 6 months there is a definite confidence about the viability of their business strategy and pending profitability. Forecast is for a loss this financial year, but the company has finally achieved its goals in terms of regulatory approvals for use of its products in USA, China and Europe, is actively demonstrating applications of its products (eg via ice-cream), has a number of new products in the pipeline (such as topical skin applications for acne/tinea etc and also animal products) and is "positioned for growth".

Yes but for many years they have always had nice words but have not delivered much revenue wise so I take that with a large dose of salt! Check out Wellington Drive, Rakon, ICP Bio or a number of others who have had the ability to write well but not make much/any money.


When these things are successfully marketed (and the early successes with Stratum are encouraging) BLT could fly.

Sorry to seem contrary (Simla) but what are the early successes they have achieved with Stratum? It may be this fine beer (not Moa) I am drinking but my mind has gone blank.

Cheers :)

[emearg]

Big turnover (million shares) for this company today. Closed at 1.8 cents but only just made it based on a trade of 2,000 shares. Depth shows very little in the selling department and plenty of bids. SP should continue increasing unless somebody decides to dump a large number.







Bids






Quantity
No.
Price


158,781https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
2
1.6


701,559https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
5
1.5


450,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
1.4


302,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
4
1.3


126,900https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
5
1.2


263,636https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
1.1


250,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
5
1


1,895,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
5
0.9







Asks






Price
No.
Quantity


1.8
3
279,611https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif


1.9
2
145,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


2
1
40,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


2.5
1
50,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif







Recent Trades






Price
Volume
Time
Cond


1.8
2,000
16:20



1.6
24,819
15:31
SP


1.7
183,115
15:08



1.7
316,885
15:08



1.7
12,400
13:14



1.7
20,000
12:30



1.7
34,000
12:16



1.7
20,000
12:16



1.7
250,000
10:23



1.5
1,441
10:06



1.5
95,559
09:59



1.5
4,441
09:59



1.5
13,150
09:59



1.5
2,850
09:59

[simla]

Sorry to seem contrary (Simla) but what are the early successes they have achieved with Stratum?
Not at all, Emearg. The utility of Stratum remains the big unknown. They only signed up a year ago, so presumably have to start from scratch. But so far we shareholders remain blind as to their abilities as far as I can tell. If they had clearly visible runs on the board for Blis, I think it would be game set and match already. Their effectiveness is probably the one big piece of news we want to know about.

On the other hand, we have seen a lot of progress in Europe (Italy, Russia, Israel) and with the legal opinion. Maybe that is already their work. And the encouragement into the dog product to play into the markets of their parent is presumably their work. We know from the net that they have exhibited at trade fairs. I see Blis M18 has now become available in Japan, which is presumably their work. The net suggests they were behind the genome. And Blis seems to be in some of the East European countries to judge by the net. Are they the ones releasing all the news stories that seem to have increased in number recently? And no doubt you have seen a little dribble of new products on the net, which may well be from their time too. It's just hard for us shareholders to know who is doing what.

Blis does not talk big on the whole, but merely reports what it has done. New in the last year are: GRAS, China, Stratum, Europe, ice cream/BFF, Q24, web sales. Indeed, the only bits predating that are the US manufacturers under the old distributor (yes, wouldn't it be great to be told in detail why the US has stalled) and a handful of Asian products which we don't know why they haven't fired up much yet. So the new stuff is an order of magnitude more. Maybe the interest in the shares is because someone agrees with that logic!

We were told what to expect to March this year. But 2013 is now underway and it would be pretty nice to hear about current progress and expectations beyond 2 or 3 months hence.

However, two other matters. How did you post those tables? Is that the html tag? And why is nobody commenting on the divine roulade which is now available all over the Wellington region, so I'm assuming is elsewhere too?

Suddenly Blis is getting exciting again?

[Nigel]

...what are the early successes they have achieved with Stratum?

Hi Emearg,

The Stratum comments were reflecting some good stuff mentioned in the half-year report, namely:
- "Personnel from BLIS Technologies and from Stratum Nutrition have spent a significant period of time in Europe, North America, Asia and New Zealand since December 2011 working on product and sales training for both the BLIS K12 and the BLIS M18 ingredients."
- "A legal opinion, obtained with the assistance of Stratum Nutrition, now enables the company to sell its BLIS branded probiotic ingredients in Europe. This legal opinion confirms the safety of BLIS K12TM and BLIS M18TM branded probiotic ingredients."
- "Stratum Nutrition is making excellent progress in putting the proposition for use of our branded ingredients to participants in the global market"
- "The relationship with our new global distributor, Stratum Nutrition, is opening up new sales channels in Europe and Asia..."

As Simla pointed out, we won't really know how things are tracking until the next annual report. Some sort of operating update or guidance wouldn't go amiss.

Also, I was reading through some of the patent for Q24 - it's potential uses are much more wide-ranging than just acne and tinea. It may be able to treat a whole range of skin conditions and even combat body odour! Who knows where that one will end up, but if it can be commercialized there could be some big reward for Blis and its shareholders. Again, I hoping for an update in the annual report.

[emearg]

Thanks guys for the reminders. Simla, it was just a copy and paste from Direct Broking to Sharetrader (using Chrome). No magic was performed by me.

[simla]

Ah, if we knew! The company recently told 63% of shareholders with less than 25k shares that they had three months to buy more or be sold out. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/231578 That must be part of what's happening, but is it the reason? Don't know. (The last annual report http://blis.co.nz/media/pdf/blis_annual_report.pdf states there were 2526 shareholders, p50, so 63% should be about 1600 shareholders.)


Okay, since the share price is of interest at present, I should probably try to be accurate. I've got out of the practice of keeping links to back up my posts.

In particular, I said I thought there had been a trickle of products appearing, meaning the last few months. But I'm not really keeping links any more, so here's a question for people. What news have they got to post links to of progress recently, as the group hasn't really been posting news much?

The M18 in Japan is recent, so that's easy. http://www.kenko-media.com/health_idst/007900.html Here's a Hungarian site with Blis for sale http://www.oralbiotikum.hu/now_oralbiotic___blis_k12_58 This German site isn't open but Google links it to Blis http://www.oralflora.de/ I think we mentioned this Italian one, and there's the link on the research as well. http://www.infomedicaintegrata.it/ I'm pretty sure this one in Japan is new, but I'm open to correction. http://kenkoumama.com/item/purobaiok12/ That's just a smattering to show at least some backup for the statement. If some of that isn't recent, my apologies, but I haven't been collecting links.

So just a trickle from my point of view. That's not all I saw, but I can't remember where or why, as I wasn't posting about it, but I may be remembering market progress as much as products. Plus I read about progress by things like Yomi which I posted recently.

So sorry for putting up "facts" but not sourcing them, I'm out of practice.

But what news has anyone else to bring to light?

[simla]

As you say Sparky, no actual news. I'm in this for the dividends myself, as well as building a worthwhile company, and not getting too excited about the price. But nice that the company is getting a reponse finally, as the share price is absurd in my opinion, even at the current price. Just my opinion though. Have you locked in your own good news by selling out your position in the other companies then? Profits come with dividends or sale of shares and anything else is only today's price?

[simla]

PEB and ATM haven't paid dividends either, but I imagine you're hoping for some! I can't see how Blis can not pay dividends sooner or later except by going bankrupt, and it's hard to see the current situation leading to that now. We'll see.

Life isn't a competition. We can all win.

[simla]

As dividend plays go, I would think BLT would be at the low end of expectations
There I definitely disagree. I am constantly amazed that nobody mentions the maths behind Blis. If the maths was otherwise, I would have a very different attitude to Blis. If you multiply the NZ sales per capita over it's other markets with the 50% or less cost of goods sold they've had so far, the results are more than satisfactory, even after a few years delay. And the NZ sales are not even supported by extensive advertising, and neither does that allow for other products in Blis's arsenal, nor the GRAS multiplier. When I complain that Blis is undervalued, it's because I have ... valued it. Nobody else seems to have thought of that basic idea. Beats me why not. If Blis reaches the stage of dividends, I don't think anyone will be complaining about them. Just my opinion, of course.

And yes, it is strange that the penny dreadfuls are collectively getting attention when you consider the large numbers of NZ companies that have no researchers following them.

[emearg]

Simla, it may just be speculation. There may be no good news of any kind or anything in the pipeline of note.

While I note the happiness of some in seeing the share price doubling (I share your joy but for a different company that hails from the Uni of Otago's Centre for Innovation), I would ask the question - how many of you have had a double in the value of your shares?

The two are different things of course. Those who bought at 1c have had a doubling in value. Those who bought at the IPO, or at anytime before May 2012 will still be hurting with considerable loss in the holding.

Still, I'm happy that you guys are feeling happy.

There hasn't been any new news that justifies the share price rally. The buy back may be causing it? Or a penny dreadfuls suddenly in favour? How lovely...

I'm sure most of the posters on here haven't doubled their value, but a higher share price is better than a lower share price :) Many posters may have very low buy prices because of averaging down. Perhaps just another cent or two to make a profit for some? And it doesn't take the market valuing this company based on potential (something the market gave up on long ago) before the share price goes up hugely as a percentage from the 0.7 cent low.

Perhaps the price will drop again sometime soon. Just like that other company you refer to. Only time will tell!

Happy is good. That is why we like clowns :)

[emearg]

Yeah but its not sales per capita that investors care about. Its earnings per share.

If you have valued it Simla, can you tell us what price per share you do value BLT at, and on which metrics/formula/assumptions?

You may have already done this in a previous post, in which case, could you kindly provide a link?

Very true STC but Simla does have a point. But it will only count if sales take off. At this point it is just nice logic that hasn't panned out in the real world.

[emearg]

Popped into the Countdown you referred to Simla. What a nicely laid out shop. Yes they had both types of Throatguard for $18.99. If supermarkets go this way (of having Pharmacies in their new/bigger shops) then that would be a good thing, but it isn't going to change the future of BLT. NZ is too small for BLT to turn around based on lozenge sales.

Getting the ice-cream into more supermarkets (Countdowns, Pak and Slaves etc) would make more of a difference but again won't make BLT a winner. All good small steps though...

[CJ]

Its really is going off like a frog in a sock.

Brokerage costs must be a killer as the dollar value of trades is so low. If you wanted a reasonable holding to make it worthwhile, you would have to take out all the sellers.

Is anyone on here buying at the moment and pushing the price up?

Whats the process with the compulsory acquisition - will they just dump them on the market or will they have a buyer/s lined up to ensure the price doesn't crash (ie. a placement)?

[simla]

No, Sparky, I won't be posting my valuation. That's for me to act on, sorry. I'm happy, but it does of course require Blis to pass critical mass point.

Emearg, I've seen Gourmet in Pak and Save, Moore Wilsons, Four Square and New World. All owned by the same outfit though I think. They are in other stores in the South Island too.

Yes, CJ, there are only so many shares available to be bought despite the 670m shares out there. The non-passive Blis shareholders have shown some tenacity and I can't see them selling out easily. But then price changes everything maybe. But never mind the price, this is a fascinating situation to watch play out.

[emearg]

Emearg, I've seen Gourmet in Pak and Save, Moore Wilsons, Four Square and New World. All owned by the same outfit though I think. They are in other stores in the South Island too.

That is good. Wider distribution than I thought. That should help BLT cashflow


But then price changes everything maybe. But never mind the price, this is a fascinating situation to watch play out.

Up another 25% this morning...







Bids






Quantity
No.
Price


44,386https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif
1
2.3


91,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
2.2


99,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
2.1


150,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
2
2


24,333https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
1.9


137,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
3
1.8


16,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
1.7


1,000,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
1.6


1,128,559https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
6
1.5


150,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
1.4


272,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
3
1.3


88,900https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
3
1.2


13,636https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
1
1.1


50,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
4
1


1,895,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
5
0.9







Asks






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Quantity


2.5
1
10,186https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif


3
1
42,857https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


3.5
1
192,857https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif


5.8
1
50,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif







Recent Trades






Price
Volume
Time
Cond


2.5
84,000
10:10



2.5
25,480
09:59



2.5
34,520
09:59



2.5
15,480
09:59



2.5
24,013
09:59



2.5
38,507
09:59



2.5
14,000
09:59

[Nigel]

A few reasons SP may be increasing
- 63% of existing shareholders being told to buy more shares by March or be removed from the register
- low number of shares on offer (classic supply and demand situation, even if some of the 'demand' is being coerced via the letter to shareholders)
- hype around local innovative companies (DIL, PEB etc) possibly rubbing off on BLT
- increased focus on share investment after the New year's 'broker picks' and more people looking into stocks
- for a long time, BLT has been written off by a large part of the investment community due to an absence of profitability. Despite this, the company has continued with its strategy and has made great progress in terms of commercialising their IP, developing new products and generating revenue. I think a few people who had ignored BLT are now opening their eyes to the possibility that this could actually be quite big.
- a lot of people will have seen the likes of ATM or PEB or DIL or even XRO tread water at a low market cap and then take off, and then thought "I wish I had got some when they were 'cheap'". Maybe this is a case of new investors wanting to get in on a future winner
- there are not many companies you can buy for sub-$20mil that have the proven product and commercial prospects of BLT.
- there are a number of factors that could cause the shareprice to lift dramatically (Nestle announcement, takeover, Q24 release, profitability etc). Very speculative as to when these milestones will hit, so people wanting to get in before they do?

Anyway, just my 10 cents (while wondering how long it might take for BLT to reach 10 cents again... that would be nice!)

[CJ]

Hi there, I am quite new to investing and although I understand the possible implication for the SP of this point I dont really understand the logistics and reasoning of how/why shareholders can be booted of the register. If you have time can you let me know a few more details about this?
Cheers.There are minimum holding rules that apply to NZX companies which can be enforced by the companies. From memory, if you hold under ~$250 (there are several steps based on share price), the company can force to you acquire more or acquire them from you. The rational being it costs the company money to have shareholders (registry costs and publishing/posting annual reports, small dividend payments, etc).

If it weren't for these rules, every pensioner would own 1 share in each company just for the morning tea at the AGM.

[winner69]

Truly amazing stuff .....blt at 2.5 cents .....heck going up faster than XRO

Might even hit 5 cents by end of month

To the faithful please forgive me for rubbishing this dog .....no longer will I make disparaging remarks like comparing them to the corner dairy

Please please forgiveness

I still not even tempted but I will follow your fortune making with interest

[pierre]

A few reasons SP may be increasing
- 63% of existing shareholders being told to buy more shares by March or be removed from the register
- low number of shares on offer (classic supply and demand situation, even if some of the 'demand' is being coerced via the letter to shareholders)
- hype around local innovative companies (DIL, PEB etc) possibly rubbing off on BLT
- increased focus on share investment after the New year's 'broker picks' and more people looking into stocks
- for a long time, BLT has been written off by a large part of the investment community due to an absence of profitability. Despite this, the company has continued with its strategy and has made great progress in terms of commercialising their IP, developing new products and generating revenue. I think a few people who had ignored BLT are now opening their eyes to the possibility that this could actually be quite big.
- a lot of people will have seen the likes of ATM or PEB or DIL or even XRO tread water at a low market cap and then take off, and then thought "I wish I had got some when they were 'cheap'". Maybe this is a case of new investors wanting to get in on a future winner
- there are not many companies you can buy for sub-$20mil that have the proven product and commercial prospects of BLT.
- there are a number of factors that could cause the shareprice to lift dramatically (Nestle announcement, takeover, Q24 release, profitability etc). Very speculative as to when these milestones will hit, so people wanting to get in before they do?

Anyway, just my 10 cents (while wondering how long it might take for BLT to reach 10 cents again... that would be nice!)

Well summarised Nigel. A price of 10 cps would be great but I suspect that it's a little way off yet.

I've patiently held BLT since 2005 when I bought them at 19 cps! I didn't have many shares initially but supported the Preference Share issue and was able to convert them to Ords in May at the then low rate, plus I did a major top up in October when they were at 0.7cps. Now holding 1.3 million shares at an average price of 1.5cps. The current market activity is very welcome with every 0.1c movement showing me a gain of $1300.

There are some far more substantial holders than me though who supported the October offer at 0.7cps - just hope they're not tempted to take their more than 300% gain and flood the market.

[simla]

no longer will I make disparaging remarks like comparing them to the corner dairy

Yeah right, Winner! Any ideas on what's going on?

[simla]

at an average price of 1.5cps.

Nice one, Pierre. I'm ahead at present too, but not sure how real or persistent these prices are.

[pierre]

Nice one, Pierre. I'm ahead at present too, but not sure how real or persistent these prices are.

Me neither Simla - but think Nigel has summed up the present situation pretty well. What we really need though is an update from the company which contains positive, quantified news of a substantial and ongoing increase in sales.

[GR8DAY]

Thank the Lord I acted on my GUTOMETER when I did.........just managed to pick up half million at around 1.5c. Peanuts in dollar terms but up something like 56% in a week! Pity Im not always that good..........plus got it on my "PIKS for 2013" so combined with PEB I may well be up there towards the leaders now? Who needs charts and fundamentals when the GUTOMETER is working this well!! YES 10c wud be nice..........but I might just have to be patient for week or two!!

[Cool Bear]

gr8day, you and Pierre did well. It is now 3 cents and that is 100% for you and many many more for Pierre. My fun punt of just over a hundred thousand shares at 1 cent in early December is now up 200%. It was not a serious investment then but now starting to get a bit serious although it could be just a bit of exorbitant euphoria at the moment. Time will tell! At the rate it is going Nigel may get his 10cents soon