BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

So the ice cream has been selling well (and it has) but at a loss. Obviously shareholders could do with someone actually discussing what's going on with sales generally.

And once again a statement from the Board that makes no words of encouragement. Obviously a statement like this could have been accompanied by news on other activities in order to provide better context for this particular statement. Once again we have a statement that some might expect to impact the share price and yet it is brief and full of questions. Why do they do that with these statements? I really wish I knew.

Why was it called "moving forward"? Did the ice cream create all that extra loss by itself, or is the rest of the business part of this? Did they move to the ice cream premises to save money and therefore close down the ice cream, or was it just that the ice cream lost money so they realised they could gain money by moving premises?

Clearly the matters contained in the statement are not good news, but they are lacking in context and I will wait for the next company report before reading too much into it, as these interim statements have not proved to be the best statements to react to. At this time last year, a statement might have been read to indicated the company was out of cash and would have to write off it's intellectual property.

If we are to take this statement as providing a balanced view of the company's situation - and actually nothing in it invites us to take that view - then the central conundrum of Blis remains front and centre. How come the stuff can sell so well here in NZ and yet overseas parties seemingly can't replicate that?

The company has shown itself to have a dedicated core of shareholders, and excellent products. I'm not going to blow with the wind on this, but others no doubt will be unhappy. They may treat Blis differently than when PEB recently announced a $3m half year loss, which statement was greeted with glee! Go figure.

(As a footnote, I will genuinely be gutted to lose access to the ice cream. There isn't an ice cream available that can touch it.)

[Nigel]

I will genuinely be gutted to lose access to the ice cream. There isn't an ice cream available that can touch it.)

They said they will still supply product under a license agreement, so hopefully Gourmet will still exist in another form, with K12 ice-cream remaining available. They seemed to be making progress in terms of distribution - maybe the Auckland trial wasn't a success. Disappointing, but makes sense in many ways - focussing on the core business. Let's just hope we see some strong revenue figures soon!

[CJ]

They said they will still supply product under a license agreement, so hopefully Gourmet will still exist in another form, with K12 ice-cream remaining available. They seemed to be making progress in terms of distribution - maybe the Auckland trial wasn't a success. Disappointing, but makes sense in many ways - focusing on the core business. Let's just hope we see some strong revenue figures soon!Ideally they would have said that they are closing down the plant as they are licensing it to a much larger ice cream producer and part of the deal was a non compete clause.

I wonder when/if the licensing deals will be signed/announced.

[emearg]

My thoughts...

The good:
The capital burn stops.
POC is complete and considered successful. The criteria they apply may to determine success or failure may be different to that you or I would apply though...
Moving from a research facility to a commercial facility

The bad:
The decision to buy Gourmet. BLT stated the orginal owners had struggled because of lack of capital investment. I did wonder how on earth Blis were going to fix that considering their position! Obviously they can't so that was a very bad decision. They should have stayed as partners for the POC.
250k down the drain buying Gourmet
Additional funding wasted on building brands and developing products (which can be partially offset as it is product development and at least they got some revenue for their trouble)
They intend to continue under licence. That is nice. If/when it happens it can be upgraded to good news.
Tony Often wrote the release. Does this mean Barry is on the way out?
The increased loss.

Unknowns:
Insourcing of production. What production?

Given this announcement is all we have to go on I consider this rather bad news. It shows poor judgement and suggests the board and management aren't thinking as one.

[simla]

"The launch by Gourmet of the BLIS probiotic ice cream has however been a successful proof of concept and it is therefore intended to maintain supply under license.". You're quite right, Nigel. If that means they can continue as of now, then this actually qualifies as good news (but not for those made redundant, very very sorry indeed) as presumably the cost of manufacture goes down while revenue continues. But on what sort of margin, of course.

And, Emearg, you are quite right that this is a good news/bad news situation. (But I see absolutely no reason to think this is about our CEO, since you ask Emearg, as the interim statements always have directors' names on them as far as I can recall.)

The bad news is that the company continues to lose money, that they still don't seem to have the knack of speaking to shareholders in a consistently informative fashion with context, and that the ice cream company didn't make it as is. In particular, the bad news is that this implies the company still hasn't yet found a way to bust through the overseas inertia, although no statement is made about that.

But there is quite a bit of good news. As Nigel says, the probiotic food sales are enough to warrant continuing, which is crucially important news considering that GRAS sales are the planned centre piece of the company. Also, the management are very focused on adaptive change. They have kept the ice cream sales apparently but reduced costs on three fronts: ice cream manufacture, Blis manufacture, and accommodation. I presume the extended range of sales will continue too (Gourmet had introduced extra flavours presumably to capitalise on the brand's selling power.)

This statement reads negatively on first reading - "we're losing even more money and closing down some operations" - but is far more neutral on further reading - "we've lost money on the ice cream so far but have restructured it to capitalise on our investment from here on in". It could even be some good news if we just knew the context - "the first trial of GRAS sales has been very encouraging, and our plan remains on track even if overseas sales remain slow". Which is the fairer reading of this statement? Blowed if I know!

I will wait for the next company report before reading too much into this.

[simla]

You may be right, Sparky. But those of us who have been with BLT for a while are well used to it being a roller coaster. Total disaster can seem to have struck and yet the company has good news around the next corner. The difficult point for Blis shareholders is that this company point blank refuses to state the words "we are currently pleased" or "we are currently worried", as has been shown over some years now. Yet they continue to work very steadily towards their stated objective. It makes it very hard to know what to think as a BLT shareholder, but you get used to that just being the nature of this particular company. I'll wait and see what we hear next.

[neopoleII]

just had a look at the new premises on google earth. not much of a premises for an NZX listed company.
i wonder if our dear leader Doh! shareholder might own the building and collects premium rent.... in lew of a divi??
sorry .... just poking fun.

regarding the topical application of k12 that a poster mentioned..... this came up a few years back and i did some homework.
one of the main reasons men go bald quicker is that they dont dry their hair properly and therefore a bacteria forms in the hair folical and slowly kills the hair.
which is why men should also use a hairdryer to dry the scalp properly...... and a good rubdown after rain and sweat.
so..... k12 could be used to "cure" or retard baldness..... k12 seems to kill all bad bacterial.
imagine the sales volumes then!!!
any one wanting to do a test by rubbing their hair with ice cream for a year or two?

[CJ]

The problem is they announced this now, as opposed to at the next earnings announcement, because its a material impact on their business. And not in a good way.The announcement had to be made now as a closure is always going to be considered material.

[simla]

any one wanting to do a test by rubbing their hair with ice cream for a year or two?
I don't understand, Neopole. That's what I've always done with the ice cream. What have you guys been doing with it?

[emearg]

"The launch by Gourmet of the BLIS probiotic ice cream has however been a successful proof of concept and it is therefore intended to maintain supply under license.". You're quite right, Nigel. If that means they can continue as of now, then this actually qualifies as good news (but not for those made redundant, very very sorry indeed) as presumably the cost of manufacture goes down while revenue continues. But on what sort of margin, of course.

So how are they going to manufacture it without any staff? I read it as they are shutting down Gourmet production. In fact they state it will cease!

So why on earth do you think revenue will continue?

Gourmet is toast but they are hoping somebody else will pick up K12 ice-cream manufacturing under licence. Maybe they can sell the brand? Maybe not...

[simla]

So how are they going to manufacture it without any staff?
That's the point of "under licence", Emearg! However, we don't know whether they already have it in place or just hope to later, although "maintain supply" would seem to imply it's ready to roll. We don't know whether they will just get someone else to do the manufacture for them, or hand over all the rights off and just take a fee back, although "licence" might imply the latter. We don't know if the licence fee would be a one-up or an ongoing fee. And we don't know how profitable any such deal is expected to be. It could be anything from Fonterra having taken the Gourmet brand into it's structure to some small company tacking it on to the side of it's operations. Questions.

[emearg]

That's the point of "under licence", Emearg! However, we don't know whether they already have it in place or just hope to later, although "maintain supply" would seem to imply it's ready to roll. We don't know whether they will just get someone else to do the manufacture for them, or hand over all the rights off and just take a fee back, although "licence" might imply the latter. We don't know if the licence fee would be a one-up or an ongoing fee. And we don't know how profitable any such deal is expected to be. It could be anything from Fonterra having taken the Gourmet brand into it's structure to some small company tacking it on to the side of it's operations. Questions.

Still wondering why you think revenue will continue with all those questions. Until we are told otherwise it would be wise to assume there won't be any revenue. Don't you think?

[simla]

Being logical, Emearg, we can conclude some things surely. They have made a change, so the new situation will be more profitable than the old situation. And they have decided to maintain supply, which implies that it will be profitable rather than loss making. And they do have a market position, implying the brand has some intrinsic value now (I certainly think it has from looking in the shops) so they have value to sell. But yes, we know very little. I guess we will at least be able to look at the address on the back of the packets in a bit to find out who's doing it.

[emearg]

Being logical, Emearg, we can conclude some things surely. They have made a change, so the new situation will be more profitable than the old situation. And they have decided to maintain supply, which implies that it will be profitable rather than loss making. And they do have a market position, implying the brand has some intrinsic value now (I certainly think it has from looking in the shops) so they have value to sell. But yes, we know very little. I guess we will at least be able to look at the address on the back of the packets in a bit to find out who's doing it.

Doesn't logic usually involve facts as well as reasoning?

Will they be more profitable? Only if they sell the product. At least they will stop bleeding.

They have decided to maintain supply is different to having licensed it to somebody willing to pay them.

Their market position will be lost if they run out of product. Which they will when they cease manufacture.

Surely if they had sold the brand and concluded licencing agreements they would have told us in bold uppercase text. They haven't so my only conclusion is, at least in the short term, once current stocks and inventory runs out we won't be seeing the products in the supermarket anymore.

What do others think? Has Simla got it right and I have gone mad?

[CJ]

2 cents by the end of the week. Speculators fleeing. Mr Market doesn't like this announcement...I am surprised no one has dumped yet.

"The launch by Gourmet of the BLIS probiotic ice cream has however been a successful proof of concept and it is therefore intended to maintain supply under license."

The more I read it, that quote raises more questions than it answers.

"Maintain supply' so someone will be making it. I originally read as if it was being stopped.
"License" suggests license fees. If not fees, they will at least need the K12 so there will be sales income from that.

It is not a contract manufacture as the wording would have been different so someone has decided to take on the risk so who is it. If they put "Fonterra" or "Nestle" in that announcement, the shareprice would be 5c by now. Therefore it obviously isn't but without that piece of information, we have no idea how stable they are and what potential they have to throw money behind marketing.

Therefore not as bad as I originally thought and probably why the shareprice is in a state of shock, not knowing which way to go.

[GR8DAY]

2 cents by the end of the week. Speculators fleeing. Mr Market doesn't like this announcement...



.......GOOD RIDDANCE TO THE SPECULATORS THEN MOOSE......leave this company to the "believers". Oh MR. MARKET sure doesnt like this does he? (yea right)...$750 worth traded and SP steady as she goes??? I read the latest release as GOOD NEWS. We have a company that tried something (for good reason)....it didnt pan out......make the call and move on. Precisely what they have done ie be proactive, take it on the chin.....move forward. That's what we do in life and business. Gotta be better than continuing with the cashburn.......hard call but good on them I say.

[simla]

Yes, but the curious thing is that we don't know if this wasn't good news.

We don't know that they've taken it on the chin at all, or whether they might actually be winning. We do know that the launch was "successful" and that they intend to "maintain supply". Another way of reading this definitely includes this: "the ice cream is selling fine thank you, but our small manufacturing facility can't make it cheaply enough so we're getting someone else to make it cheaper who has better facilities." I probably have a different perspective since I go to the supermarkets from time to time and what I see is they are willing to stock it very visibly and it turns over fairly steadily (and it is by far my family's preferred ice cream already.)

CJ, you ask if they will throw marketing behind it. The announcement said they would cease with the Gourmet branding. Well, if it's to be another brand then there is presumably already marketing in place.

Yes, Emearg, I agree that there are other ways of looking at it, but they don't all have to be negative. For example, if a bigger company is to take this on, maybe they'll launch the yoghurt too. Or the M18. And don't we normally get pleased when a bigger company takes on Blis products? Why should it be different this time?

And the increase in forecast loss is described as "as a consequence" of the relocation and restructuring involved. So we don't have to read that as the situation getting worse than it was.

Maybe they called it "Moving Forward" because they were trying to say this is genuinely useful progress?

Other companies have focus groups to see if a product is attractive. Perhaps this company needs focus groups to see how many different interpretations can be made from its statements! They do so many other things so well, that I don't understand why they don't also work harder on unambiguous statements. BUt I'm certainly glad they're still beavering away though.

[Stu]

Was there attempt to sell Gourmet as a going concern to recover some costs?
If not it is possible that it was wound up due to a licence being granted to a much larger entity.

The restructuring costs, increased insourcing, and move to a dedicated manufacturing site imply a move to meet increasing demand?

[winner69]

just noise today .... all back to normal tomorrow

wonder who sells the most this year .... the corner dairy or BLT

[simla]

just noise today .... all back to normal tomorrow
You may be right, Winner. They're stopping manufacture of ice cream but intend continuing to sell it. They're cutting back for costs, but talking of having more space to process the product. There is no discussion of future prospects, except that the GRAS sales in NZ have been well received. A cut back in revenue stream, but one that was making a loss. It's hard to make anything too concrete of all that put together. Maybe CJ is right that they were just obliged to make a statement under the rules. And maybe it doesn't add up to any great gain or loss.

[winner69]

so a few months ago guidance was a loss of $1.3m and today it is $1.8m

methinks it there is more than just restructuring costs as the reason for the downgrade .... almost hidden at the bottom of a press release headed "Bliss moving forward' .... looks more backward to me

[fungus pudding]

You may be right, Winner. They're stopping manufacture of ice cream but intend continuing to sell it. They're cutting back for costs, but talking of having more space to process the product. There is no discussion of future prospects, except that the GRAS sales in NZ have been well received. A cut back in revenue stream, but one that was making a loss. It's hard to make anything too concrete of all that put together. Maybe CJ is right that they were just obliged to make a statement under the rules. And maybe it doesn't add up to any great gain or loss.

It's not hard to make anything of that at all. The ice-cream is rubbish and was never going to compete in a FMCG market. Everyone, apart from those with horse blinders on, could see that.

[Stu]

The difference in guidance is 500,000, seems reasonable given a couple of redundancies, a couple of hires, moving base, reducing outsourcing, changes to manufacturing, etc

[simla]

Okay, Emearg, maybe this reconciles our two views a little.

Yesterday's statement contained three main points from our point of view I would have said: the relocation, the closure of the Gourmet brand, and the 1.8m loss.

The relocation itself is a business decision that shows creative thinking and is surely of no particular concern other than cost, and probably is good news viewed alone.

The closure of the Gourmet brand is more difficult to interpret. Clearly the company was going for proof of concept from the beginning, as they've stated. Was Blis a sellable proposition as a GRAS item? The main reason I've monitored the supermarkets so much is because I've been pretty damned interested in that answer too, and I've actually been a bit surprised that others seemingly haven't. Nobody in Auckland seems able to tell us how things were received in Auckland, which seems valuable information to me. Scuttlebutt requires a bit of work. Anyway, what I saw, and what the company just confirmed, is that this stuff was well received. That's brilliant news given its impact on the company's future.

But what of the cost of that proof of concept? Clearly it has cost the company a fair bit of valuable cash to go there. Will another party now continue probiotic ice cream in NZ? Well, if not then a very valuable proof of concept was gained at some expense, but you would have to think that will help gain overseas progress on GRAS. If someone does run with it here, then not just a proof of concept but a lasting monument to the value of GRAS sales has been gained at some cost. And if someone runs with it here on profitable terms (and I can't see why not) then the company made an investment that not only produces a lasting monument but a profit stream, again at some cost to cash. We don't know which of these will turn out to be the case, but a valuable gain was definitely achieved at least.

And what of the profitability of the Gourmet sales? FP reasonably says the stuff was not profitable in the FMCG market (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods). But where was it going? Barry has successfully run a very large Dairy Company (no, not our proverbial corner dairy!) and undoubtedly knows all that sort of stuff. I assumed they could afford to gain the economies of scale when necessary for the up-market end of the ice cream market in NZ given that that market is not huge in NZ, and therefore the sales were either profitable now or could be made so later. This BLT statement says they considered doing that but decided the money would be more use elsewhere. So they are effectively instead hoping to outsource with the licensing plan since they have decided to keep the stuff in the market if they can. So I assume that means Blis could have afforded to gain those economies of scale in principle, but the continued delay in overseas revenue made that too hard. Maybe I was being naive on this aspect, but I don't really think so.

So was Gourmet worth it anyway? Well, definitely I would say given the need to show Blis's GRAS sellability. Could it have been done cheaper without buying Gourmet? Maybe. But then they wouldn't have had the control to really push the product nationwide, control the branding, and market support levels, all of which is surely important to make the proof of concept work. Is it disappointing that Gourmet is closing? That depends on what follows next, which we don't know yet.

Which then leaves the 1.8m news. The Blis accounts aren't detailed enough that we'll probably ever learn much about what that is. As Stu says, it's perfectly easy to rationalise, but we won't know for sure probably. The main problem is that apparently there has been no obvious increase in overseas revenue presently, which is disappointing since we shareholders have little clarity on what to expect there, and has cash implications presumably. How important is that on the bigger picture? Again, we don't know yet.

So, yes, some bad news in there. But I would say there was definitely some good news in there too.

[Microsloth]

Todays ODT

Jobs to go as Blis heads for a record loss

Yesterday, Blis further downgraded expected annual losses, edging towards a record $2 million loss for the year, fuelled by about $500,000 in restructuring and relocation costs.
This financial year will be Blis' ninth consecutive - and largest - loss. Its losses since listing on the stock exchange in 2004 total $9.8 million. ....

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/246230/jobs-go-blis-heads-record-loss (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/246230/jobs-go-blis-heads-record-loss)

Happy to not be a holder

[simla]

Remember, Moosie, he who laughs last didn't get the joke. No, wait ...

A couple of points in that article.

"a Chinese distributor was working on a launch, possibly by the end of the year, subject to gaining regulatory approvals. "

And the losses ramped up in the last two years after Blis changed distributor. We know that was expensively disruptive but obviously we need them to get the sales flowing again. Some info would be nice.

[simla]

The thing is, Moosie, that most of the Blis shareholders don't march to the drum of Mr Market. We're here to create something valuable for NZ and worthwhile for the world. Obviously we all hope to make money on it too, but we're mostly here for the long run because that's what it takes to create a company like Blis. That's why we don't get too upset about the twists and turns of the company nor rip into management over each and every move. We know this thing is very difficult and we appreciate how very hard the company is working. Of course, that doesn't mean we don't want better news!

[CJ]

Ouch today...bu why not yesterday. A few M&D's reading the ODT this morning and got spooked.

Buyers have naturally dryed up.

The thing is we still dont have enough info re the 'licensing agreement" to determine how bad (or more unlikely good) this is.

[GR8DAY]

Agree Simla........now thats twice already today you've been reprimanded Moose!! (bloody traders ah!)

[Nigel]

I think people often react to a moving shareprice. Now that it has started to decline, fear kicks in so people want to avoid a big loss. Or maybe a stoploss was set on their account and sell orders are being forced through. The lack of depth on the buy side is definitely concerning - if 1.9c was to break then there's nothing until 1.2c! I'm sure other buyers will appear if the price shifts south any further, but at face value, this doesn't look pretty. The IP hasn't changed though - I think Blis still has massive potential; you just need to be prepared for a wild ride along the way!

[CJ]

Here is one interpreation of the announcement:

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/news/2013/february-2013/19/blis-heading-for-a-$18-million-los.aspx

I like it how they refer to the ODT rather than the announcement. Looks a bit like chinese whispers with the message getting mixed up along the way.

[simla]

Getting slapped around the back of the woodshed like the unfavoured redhead child of the family today!

I asked this before but nobody answered. How do you traders know when you're following the trend and when you're creating it? After all, someone has cheerfully picked up about 2 million shares today at a pretty handy price. Why aren't they selling too in the trader's view? Are they out of touch or what?

[GR8DAY]

........perhaps they're NOT a trader SIMLA.......to state the obvious??!

[simla]

book any profit they may have before it disappears

But that's what I mean. Doesn't that mean you have to get out before the other traders? In which case there can be no net gain at all, if it's just a bunch of traders trying to outguess each other.

So what happens in 12 weeks when Blis makes its next report? They have Europe opening, the dog product was last predicted to go on the market in 8 months, China may open this year, sales overseas must actually recover at some point, Asia must be up to something, they may have licenced the NZ ice cream etc. All those things would require forward orders and if so Blis would have some good news to announce. Then the guy buying today makes way more than the traders, doesn't he?

I suppose I'm saying this: If Blis shareholders basically just hold, then most of extra trading is probably just traders. So where can the net gain be? Other shares are different because a wide range of investors move in and out at all times, but that is not my experience of Blis.

[simla]

So I'm not asking why you trade in general. I understand that you either believe in that or you don't - ironically just like Blis! - but I'm just musing out loud why the traders feel there is money to be made on BLT since my feeling is that there's nobody to trade with except the other traders. BLT shareholders are different on the whole, which is why the share price so seldom moves. That's all. No criticism intended.

[GR8DAY]

........well it sure as hell has been moving today SIMLA and you can thank (or NOT) the traders for that!!

[simla]

Actually, I think an appropriate mindset when dealing with BLT is to think of the Mainland cheese ads. Good things take time. Appropriate, since my understanding is that Saatchi's came up with that slogan, but that one of the people now associated with Blis was the one to adopt it and drive it to success. Useful person to have on board, I'd have said. Not a wonder the ice cream has been kicking down doors. Who? DYOR, as I was just reminded?

[simla]

Thanks, Moosie.

I've just been enjoying eating the ice cream while it's still available. The FSANZ have agreed on new rules for health claims on food, which transition over 3 years but start now too, so anyone starting a new probiotic ice cream would be wise to meet them. But they don't allow health claims on food high in salt, fat or sugar, so the next ice cream will be one of the low fat jobs for sure. So it's goodbye to the only genuine ice cream on the market, I fear. http://www.foodstandards.govt.nz/consumerinformation/nutritionhealthandrelatedclaims/

The good news is that they seem to allow full health claims about Blis starting right now, so long as they've notified FSANZ for most claims, or also got FSANZ approval if they mention a health marker (blood tests etc) or serious illness (one you'd normally get a doctor to treat). There are a few other restrictions too. One is that you can't claim to cure or alleviate a disease or condition, which Blis will have to tip toe around a bit maybe. "Keeps breath fresh" is probably okay but "cures bad breath" probably isn't. Interestingly, I wouldn't have thought a common cold counted as a serious disease, but the "alleviation" problem would be there. I'll bet a lot of people would like taking a yoghurt that said "keeps breath fresh" though.

As I read it, this makes Blis ice cream, yoghurt etc able to make quite substantial claims right on the label and in advertising starting now, in NZ and Australia. If that is true, and that's just my reading, then yesterday's announcement could yet be the precursor to an interesting future, remembering too my earlier comment on the industry heavyweight BFF have on their side. Also, the company has said it has problems getting Blis into Australia under health laws, but this would appear to give them an open door now.

I hope I'm right in my reading of this, the link takes you where you need to go to decide yourself. As this is quite an interesting development, I would be very interested to hear if anyone agrees with my reading on this. It appears to open the door for Blis K12 and M18 to be used in ice cream and yoghurt and gum, with pretty full health claims on the label and also in advertising, in NZ and Australia, starting now.

As the inability to legally advertise has been a real archilles heel, this would appear to be a pretty positive development. Has anyone got the time to see if they agree with my reading?

But meanwhile I am mourning the loss of the only real ice cream on the market. The ODT article in the earlier link said they would be moving Blis into the Gourmet premises in 8 weeks.

[simla]

ps. If - and it's a big if - but if this context is part of yesterday's announcement, then maybe Mr Market isn't quite as clever as he thinks. After all, nothing in the announcement came out and said, "this is terrible."

And did anyone notice this curious sentence in the ODT article: "when asked if capital-raising may be brought forward to 2013, he said there was at present ''no change to guidance'' that capital-raising was likely in 2014." (The last half report used the phrase 2014 financial year, to be clearer, so the interviewer and he may have been meaning different times.)

I can't help feeling we were told something interesting yesterday and we haven't worked it out. Good or bad, don't know.

[simla]

It is not a contract manufacture as the wording would have been different

Maybe, and maybe not. You can licence the intellectual property (K12 in this case basically) but you can also licence a brand. We know they are dropping the Gourmet brand, and starting another one would seem expensive. But on the other hand, the company talks of "finished products" quite a bit these days, as they did in the last announcement. We still don't know their grand plan for BFF, but we might assume exporting a branded food would be much more profitable than exporting raw K12 in the end (or manufacturing elsewhere). The FSANZ stuff allows advertising so starting a new brand maybe needn't be completely bankrupting? And all their capital raising is always linked to developing the market, so doing so here would not be inconsistent.

I don't think we can assume anything much about their intentions yet. More news to come on this front maybe, I'm thinking.

[simla]

Continuing that train of thought, what if we've been reading this upside down for some time? What if Blis has always been about accumulating brands and trade marks rather than selling ingredients? That is, the ingredients are the building blocks that allow building the brands?

After all, Blis has always scrupulously pursued intellectual property. And it has gone for BLIS K12 (TM) and BLIS M18 (TM) right from the start. And the marketing gurus have always said you want the brands. And there's a strong marketing guru on BFF. And most of all it would answer the riddle of just what BFF is aimed at. "Blis Functional Foods" suggests way more than "Gourmet Ice Cream", and they named it that right from the start.

One thing is for sure. Blis is a very complex company and the share market really doesn't understand it much. I watch it very closely but I'm never sure just how much of it I understand. But if BFF is going to do something in the next 6 to 12 months, maybe some of the intended scale will finally become more obvious.

[Nigel]

Good support at 1.8 and 1.9 cents. Looks like 2c could be the bottom. Onwards and upwards? Time will tell :)

[simla]

Yes, but if my stuff on FSANZ is right, then the following is possible too. The FSANZ stuff came out before Christmas and was law in mid January. Nobody expected this as the FSANZ have been working on this for a massive 12 years.

So, imagine Gourmet sales are going well but not making a profit. Great proof of concept, but now you have to decide what to do. You want to close it down, but feel obliged to chew over whether there is cash to be had there. The only obvious option is to buy equipment to reduce cost of manufacture.

Then the FSANZ suddenly passes new food laws, after a staggering 12 years of inaction. Instantly the Gourmet brand is toast. It is high in sugar and fat, so will have to be withdrawn in the next couple of years anyway, so no point in investing in it. Likewise, it is already losing money so no point in carrying on. It goes as you already have the evidence you need for proof of concept.

Now you are stuck with an ice cream shop but you realise you can turn that to advantage by making it Blis headquarters, which you may have been tossing over anyway. Necessarily these decisions increase this year's loss, but they are the obvious and sensible thing to do.

Meanwhile you are delighted that some good news fell into Blis's lap for once, as you are now allowed to make solid health claims on the labels AND you are allowed to advertise the claims and the product in the media in NZ and Australia. Brilliant. Do you launch a product somewhere, or is this an opportunity to go for a full brand launch as I wondered above? Either way, it's a great opportunity.

Meanwhile you have to announce all this to the market. Unaware or disinterested in the context, all the market hears is: closing Gourmet, 1.8m loss, moving into ice cream shop because no choice. The share price plummets. You are disappointed as you had recently said that Gourmet's main point was proof of concept. Mr Market should be on antidepressants!

Actually you see it all as great news all round, since you have now tidied up a whole lot of decisions and you have the opportunity for a full GRAS launch right here in NZ and Aus if you want. So you call it "Moving Forward."

Have I a shred of evidence that this is what happened? No, not a dickey bird. But we know the underlying facts are true I think. The thing is though, why did they make that announcement that so puzzled us? This theory at least explains that. I'm not saying this is the explanation, but nobody seems to be considering the possibility that the announcement really was "Moving Forward", and then wondering why.

The alternative theory, which the market is working on, is that a bunch of hard working and clever people have sat there for a year twiddling their thumbs while things got worse. I find that much harder to credit.

The company needs to come up with some good news? No, the shareholders would like that! Meanwhile people not used to the pace of Blis are maybe making decisions too quickly. As I said when this came out, I'll wait for the May report to find out more.

[CJ]

Has anyone contact the company to ask?

I assume there is no shareholder meeting till the next AGM (in July?)

[simla]

Way you go, CJ. I'm not sure what your question would be. Did they close down Gourmet because it was losing money and only a proof of concept? Yes, they said so already. Did they move in the premises because it was available? Yes, they said so. Did it cost more? Yesm they said so. Did they feel it was "moving forward".? Yes, they said so. Does FSANZ let them do more? They may feel we could read that for ourselves! That only leaves: was it in that sequence? Answer, it doesn't matter one bit.

The only real question is whether we should be heartened or disheartened by developments to date, and their answer to that would be: see you in May because that's how the market works.

I don't think the question is for the company, it is for the market: why is everyone assuming this is very bad news?

[emearg]

Has anyone contact the company to ask?

I assume there is no shareholder meeting till the next AGM (in July?)

Anthony Offen
T: 021-463-336

[emearg]

Way you go, CJ. I'm not sure what your question would be. Did they close down Gourmet because it was losing money and only a proof of concept? Yes, they said so already.

Are you forgetting they were planning on taking the ice cream global? Only a proof of concept? What rubbish!!

I'm glad they cut their losses but if you want to discuss stuff here please tell the whole story. Thanks

[CJ]

I don't think the question is for the company, it is for the market: why is everyone assuming this is very bad news?The mention licensing to replace the Gourmet Ice Cream. That is the question that remains unanswered as that is where the new revenue will come from.

[simla]

The only reference to global Gourmet was an ODT interview with the staff at Gourmet who said maybe they could export it eventually, as I recall it. I have no doubt however that they intend Bis dairy products to be available globally if they last the distance, and nothing here is inconsistent with that. I've already agreed that I thought they could be selling it at a profit now and that was wrong with the existing equipment. I guess I had assumed they had put in more equipment as the sales grew but apparently not. But I've also hypothesised that the decision to expand further with more investment was made impossible by FSANZ, and I assume the cash situation made them pretty reluctant to go there presently anyway if that's what you mean. I agree that Blis remains constrained by the lack of solid revenue, but that existed before the last announcement too.

If the FSANZ is part of the decision, then a full GRAS approach to NZ/Aus will obviously reap way bigger rewards than pressing on with just the Gourmet ice cream. If that was part of the decision, then the logic is the same as the global situation: we'll do better by getting a bigger party to run with this than by feeding limited resources into growing it ourselves. I'm very sad that Gourmet isn't to go on, but I can't see how it could have within the FSANZ rules except by completely re-equipping the factory - see last sentence. If you're saying the FSANZ stuff blew Gourmet out of the water and that is bad news, then yes I suppose that's true. I'm not really sure what you're saying, Emearg.

I really would appreciate someone reading the FSANZ stuff and saying if they agree. It seems important to me. They have similar permission in the US with GRAS and Europe as I understand it (not sure about advertising there) but things happen so much more slowly outside NZ.

[simla]

I think I feel like someone just bought a car for $20,000 and all anyone is saying is that we lost $20,000. This announcement was a package of decisions, and I assume they are rational people, so they did this for a reason. The market has plunged the price dramatically because they take it to be very bad news. But nobody seems inclined to think these people must be doing things, and maybe there's another side to this, and nobody is looking for another view of things. I'm trying to. I mean, the fact (if true) that they can now openly advertise GRAS foods in NZ/Aus is major news in my book, but I don't think anyone has even mentioned that I posted that, for example. Why the determination to see things badly?

[emearg]

The only reference to global Gourmet was an ODT interview with the staff at Gourmet who said maybe they could export it eventually, as I recall it.

From the AGM presentation in July:
BLIS Functional Foods trades as Gourmet Ice Cream. BFFL allows BLIS to evaluate food based product & delivery concepts for its probiotics locally. Strategic intent is international markets.

The one in 2011 was aimed at expanding in Australasia initially...

So again I say I am glad they pulled the plug but only after achieving a 'fail'. Let us not forget they made a bad decision. Wasted our money.

[simla]

BFFL allows BLIS to evaluate ... its probiotics locally. Strategic intent is international markets.
I'm quite sure BFF has international intent and I look forward to finding out just how they intend to do that. A tiny factory in Dunedin was never going to do that without major action, which action has certainly not been ruled out by this action. "Gourmet" is a terrible name as you couldn't possibly trade mark it anywhere in the world, so they were always going to have to do more. Can't see any road block there.

But it does say "evaluate" locally.

It's certainly not a fail yet, even though I wish Gourmet could continue. They are giving up on selling ice cream directly and are licensing it out instead. Yes, they may not manage that. But they have a good proof that it sells well here, they have new laws allowing it to be advertised so it's a good idea for someone, and they personally have good contacts in the NZ dairy industry. "Maintain supply" implies fairly quick intent too.

I get that people are sick of sudden announcements that don't have much sex appeal. But it's not like we haven't been there before. But that's different from saying we're doomed, when I can't see that the last announcement changes things very much at all on that front once you pick it apart.

ps. If my brand theory is correct, then this is not a fail but in fact a step on the planned path. Think the Pams brand at the supermarkets. I'm quite sure they manufacture nothing at all, but it's obviously a valuable business strategy. If Blis intend to get value by owning intellectual property (patents, brands, trade marks etc) rather than manufacturing too much then the word licence is going to show up more and more from here on in.

[simla]

Well, thanks for the feedback anyway. I come here to discuss publicly available information and that's the point. It was a pretty challenging announcement and apparently I'm pretty alone in thinking it could be consistent with "moving forward" as stated. Okay, that's useful information and thanks. I expect we'll learn more in May.

[CJ]

This announcement was a package of decisions, and I assume they are rational people, so they did this for a reason. The market has plunged the price dramatically because they take it to be very bad news. But nobody seems inclined to think these people must be doing things, and maybe there's another side to this, and nobody is looking for another view of things. I'm trying to. I mean, the fact (if true) that they can now openly advertise GRAS foods in NZ/Aus is major news in my book, but I don't think anyone has even mentioned that I posted that, for example. Why the determination to see things badly?I have read the link you posted above (http://www.foodstandards.govt.nz/consumerinformation/nutritionhealthandrelatedclaims/) and I agree that there was no point growing the Gourmet Brand as a 'health product' as it would be banned in 3 years (I assume it was high in sugur).

The seem to open the door for something like http://www.symbioyoghurt.co.nz/ and I assume that is where they will head, though under license, rather than produced inhouse.. I have just reread the announcement and I have reverted back - the announcement isn't great as it only says they 'intend' to continue to supply under license.

[winner69]

WTF .... some idiot sold a few bobs worth at 1.8

Whats up?

Mention of whatsup .... anybody know what happened to him/her .... miss theor poata

[THEONE]

I was in New World victoria park yesterday, there was lots of Gourmet ice cream available. The packaging of some of the non Blis versions actually looks quite good. Its sad about gourmet shutting up shop. Would love to know more.

I found it strange that Blis only owned 90% i think. the remainder owned by the Gourmet Ice cream founder. Maybe that was part of the reason. I would like to know more detail about why the restructuring is costing 500k. Seems alot, are they buying some new machinery for Probiotic production?

Why is Gourmet not being sold as a going concern? Last year it was worth $250k and alot has since been invested.

I assume Mark Scorgie dosent own 10% in Blis Functional Foods?, just Gourmet?

Ice cream manufacture requires scale. Last year I read about a NZ company in New Zealand outsourcing their production to Fonterra.

Its hard to know how to if this good or bad news. Perhaps they are already getting traction with some big dairy companies. With foods sales I presume the sales need to be a minimum level, no point selling to a tiny yoghurt company.

In regards to the FSANZ, it looks as though at this stage they can put the bacteria in the foods however cannot make health claims because they are not on the approved health ingredient list

[simla]

Thanks for that, TheOne. We'll find out what use the company makes of it eventually. They obviously had a plan when they bought the company, but I'm not sure that we'll find out whether this was it or whether it went off the rails or not. 250k sounds a lot, but a proof that you can sell Blis as a food is surely extremely valuable to BLT, so maybe that was all they wanted. Or maybe it didn't go as they hoped, as Emearg says. For example, the supermarkets have got very aggressive during that time which may have changed the outlook, or something like that. My guess is that they hoped to have more cash to make the decision easier by now - that they always knew it would be marginal but hoped to be in a position to run with it anyway, but decided to kick for touch instead. Or maybe the plan was always to licence it out now as per the statement, but then you'd think they would have that in place if so.

But BFF remains a flag staked in the sand and I'm sure we'll be hearing a lot more of that. I think my ideas on brands etc probably will prove to be true, but we'll see. As to who owns it, here's the companies office. http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/3289468 If it was me, I might have some sort of option in place too, but who knows. (ps that address you sent me didn't work.)

[THEONE]

Hi Simla, I tried sending a private message, but it is blocked. Sorry I am not sure which address i sent?
I think Gourmet Ice Cream became BFF, however surely any Blis K12 icecream sales now will be 100% attributable to Blis? I am probably just over thinking this, everything should be ok in the "wash up"

[skid]

Dang! 1.6 close

[Nigel]

Wouldn't be surprised if it hit 1 cent again. The good news is not forthcoming, rats leaving sinking ship!

I'd be surprised. 1 cent would value the company at around 6 million dollars. That seems ludicrous for a company with quality products and more in the pipeline.

[Nigel]

The share price can wallow, but there will be a floor under which people simply will not sell. In fact, good news tends to pop up unexpectedly with this company, so it's almost just as likely to head north in a hurry than it is to head south.

I understand your advanced psychological method of throwing out target figures to try to influence other traders, but the 1 cent thing may be a bit of a stretch.

[Nigel]

Don't assume I was left holding anything; I may have, I may not have. That's not really relevant.
I just find it somewhat amusing how the sentiment of some contributors swings so wildly depending on whether they hold or not.

[skid]

Shareprice could go either way,but the shareprice of a co. can actually sit under the co. value for ages.
I found that out with PPP a few yrs ago

[Nigel]

I think the action earlier this year showed a glimpse of what could happen if some solid revenue growth or major deal actually comes along. People bought in based on the potential of what may happen, but without the results to back up that optimism, the price has fallen backwards again (sparked by the recent 'profit' guidance). Can't wait to see what will happen when a deal is announced with Lilliputsquigglemadigglelandything!

[simla]

Moosie, I know your perspective is shorter term than some of us. We respect that, but it would be nice if you too managed not to be too dismissive of our viewpoint at the same time. Last time I heard, saying to someone "if it barks like a dog" was a pretty derisory phrase.

Many of us are here because we want to build something for New Zealand, and for the world. But you know what? We also want to build a society for our children and grandchildren. I don't know if you've noticed the chronic youth unemployment in NZ, the ever increasing share of our wealth going off shore, the off-shoring of Auckland rental properties, etc. There are only a few people in the world trying to genuinely create wealth from scratch, and BLT is one of them. A lot of BLT shareholders are trying to be part of that.

It may be fun to rubbish places like BLT, but new companies are always a struggle. PEB is flavour of the month at the moment, but actually it started about the same time as BLT, same for ATM. Even Diligent started in 2001 (ie same time) and had a share price of 10 cents four years ago. All these places are great news for New Zealand.

BLT only embarked on the current strategy at the end of 2007, five years ago, so it would be awfully nice if people stopped talking of it failing for over a decade. Since 2007, it has changed from a company with one single product selling in NZ to company with many products available across a huge swag of the world. Further it has broadened from a tablet to a food ingredient and now probably an animal product. It has amassed significant intellectual property and formed many alliances. It has gained access to Europe where all the rest of the probiotic industry is fuming because they are locked out. It has gained access to China in most ways now, although still awaiting yet one more licence barrier. It has gained full access to the US. And a lot of Asia. It has got many companies to buy into its promise.

Launching of Gourmet ice cream apparently didn't go as planned, but it sure was selling well, which is a major piece of news too, of vital importance to the company we expect.

On the bad news front, there actually hasn't been that much. Nestle didn't proceed with the infant formula, which was a great pity and BLT ascribed that to the trials not being as they could have been. Bioguard didn't make the grade and I've posted elsewhere that that was not anything to do with Blis but a great pity as they were advertising well. Asia has been astonishingly slow in the uptake and I would love to know what that is about as K12 would seem to be a Japanese dream given the limited personal space in Tokyo. Changing distributor has obviously had huge impact, and indeed when/if that resolves the company will probably be plain sailing.

Sales aren't as bad as everyone lets on as they sold $1.5m last year even though it was a bad year for them. Obviously we want a whole lot more. The lack of sales growth is actually the main piece of bad news, but it is unfair to talk about that symbolising everything the company does because it most assuredly does not.

Yes, this thing could still fail. It must achieve sales. But actually it only needs about $1m more in income to be on safe ground, and that is a tiny drop in the bucket from the many irons it has in the fire. Yes, there is no guarantee it will do that at all, but it is hardly fair to portray that as impossible in the circumstances, as no change on the situation 5 years ago. The situation has changed very massively and very positively in that time.

Yes, if it barks like a dog maybe it will be a dog. But this place is not barking like a dog. The situation has changed significantly every year for five years and there is certainly no trend in place (no NOT even income, which demonstrates no clear trend) to imply that this thing has no future.

As I say, your perspective is different from some of us. We respect that but would appreciate your noticing that we are trying to do something for the future of our country and your not implying that only total losers would consider doing something that doesn't have a short term profit. Even in the event of this thing failing - which I am not expecting - then I will still be very proud of having tried to do something very good here.

I look forward to you telling me that your comments have nothing to do with what I have just said, that you admit Blis may yet get off the ground but that basically it looks like a dog. When you've posted that, would you mind reading this again.

[simla]

would appreciate your ... not implying that only total losers would consider doing something that doesn't have a short term profit.

But I refuse to get emotional about it like that last post. That's when you start losing your shirt.
That's exactly the sort of comment that is difficult for us to feel good about.


I can hardly be called deconstructive to the economy!
In no way have I complained about your activities. I just wish you could be more aware of the possibility that our activities are okay too. It takes all sorts to make the world. Post away by all means, just try not to rubbish our objectives at the same time, that's all. You tend to mix your comments about Blis's future with other comments about people who have made the "mistake" of owning any shares. We're human, you know.

[simla]

Thanks, Moosie. I'm always hugely pleased to see opinions that disagree with me, believe it or not. Very useful as far as I'm concerned. I certainly don't claim your views are wrong. Neither of us know the outcome so far. http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon7.png

[simla]

From the "coals to newcastle" file comes this NZ product with K12 in it! http://www.healthpost.co.nz/supplements-and-natural-health/digestive-health/probiotics/blis-k12-oral-probiotic-bbbk12

[winner69]

were there any trades yesterday?

told you activity would drive up after the children went back to school

[brucea]

Hi Simla - I guess it is because it is their house brand and they supply people overseas (yes, I know Blis does that too!). I noted Blis K12 ads while I was browsing on line earlier this week. They were quite prominent too - well done Blis for capitalising on the internet as a means of spreading the message about the product!

[CJ]

I noted Blis K12 ads while I was browsing on line earlier this week. They were quite prominent too - well done Blis for capitalising on the internet as a means of spreading the message about the product!you've probably been googling Blis a bit to much if you are getting ads for them

[winner69]

Shame school holidays are over .... nothing to keep one amused on the BLT thread

[percy]

Shame school holidays are over .... nothing to keep one amused on the BLT thread

With Easter not far away, I expect they will rise from the dead>.

[winner69]

jeez percy ... not holidays already

[Nigel]

rise from the dead

The shareprice needs a bit of ressurecting too! It's been slowly drifting down in the absence of any exciting news. As we've said before, this stock has the potential to move quickly (in either direction) when an announcement comes along. Not a bad price to be accumulating at (market cap = $10m).

[pierre]

The easiest way to get the SP moving might be to invite Rod Drury onto the Board - that should be good for about a 1000 per cent increase within a week or two.

Though - on second thoughts - it might cause XRO to slow down a bit. Hmmm maybe that's a good thing?

[CJ]

Clone Drury, add Richard Branson and chuck a moo-cow in for good measure as a PR stunt and we will see a +20000% rise.
All the need to do is announce a licencing deal with a big FMCG company and the price will rise. Hopefully that is what they are working on.

[CJ]

Some shares about to be dumped on the market by First NZ in relation to the small holders being forced to sell. Notice doesn't indicate how many shares.

[buncs]

Hi

Happy Easter folks

I have just joined the forum and pretty raw at trading. I was getting quite excited about BLT - it seemed a good thing to keep an eye on. However, I was completely non-plussed by what happened on 27th. With just over $3000 of trading that day, the price rose 21% :- 0.14 to 0.17.

Question please: Was the price rise a result of the trading, or was that just coincidence?

If it wasn't the trading, what was it? There were no announcements that I could see, that would make what was a fairly static stock suddenly take a leap upwards.

Confused already!

[winner69]

Hi buncs

Good luck if you want to become a serious trader .... your first comments suggest you are more of gambler than a trader. Even though simla and graeme spelt backwards would disagree BLT is not the stock for you unless it is school holiday time

If you want to trade (or gamble) find something with a lot of liquidity ... not many on the NZX but lots on the ASX. That's my advice ... no doubt others will give you more

Maybe that other betting agency the TAB is a better exchange - I reckon Its a Dundeel is a cert in the Rosehill Guineas in Sydney tomorrow - No 2 in Race 5 - put a $1000 on and $1500 back - 50% profit and better than trying to day trade BLT - and then if you are really trying put that $1500 on the Cowboys to beat the Warriors on Monday - and when that happens you thou is now $2200 - heck 120% return for the weekend - pretty good eh

[Stu]

Buncs, not sure what winner is rambling about, maybe all those random dots and dashes are some sort of code?
In answer to your question, it would be a combination of factors such as a very small market cap, very low (penny) share price, very low volume, holiday shut down, as well as other variables. So not really surprising to see BLT make big moves either way, any trading will likely cause relatively large changes, might well be down 20 percent the next day.

[simla]

Hi Buncs. The main thing to know about Blis is that it has never reported a profit. Trading shares is not my thing anyway, as the chances of out-trading the next guy never seem too great to me, but trading a share that has never made a profit is entirely based on guessing the psychology of the crowd. Without a profit, there is no mathematical basis of an underlying value, nothing to pins the swings and round-abouts to, so anything could happen. Also, you might like to study the market of any shares you are thinking of trading in. Study the patterns of offers and bids and decide just how many parties you think you are really dealing with in the market, as you might conclude there are less than you might think otherwise. Or not. Entirely your call.

So I own the shares as a long term hold because I am happy to support an up-and-coming company and risk losing the money if it doesn't make it, for the good of NZ. If they make it, which is not certain, there's probably pretty good money to be made on it, but even that depends on what profits they make if they do. As a beginner, I think you'd be wiser to start with something that's making a profit, but that's just a broad suggestion. I don't day trade, full stop.

If you want to buy something like Blis long term, then I suggest you do some serious reading so you know what you're getting into. Unfortunately, the Blis website has very little report history on it, but they would probably send you some if you asked. Some people may be owning the shares because they think there will be a turn around in the next year, but they will certainly have done their reading before taking that chance.

But, yes, there is an event. The company has just compulsorily purchased shares from all the shareholders with less than 25,000 shares and given them to a share broker to sell. There is probably a degree of deliberate lack of interest to see if those shares can be picked up cheaply, but that's a guess. Nobody knows how many shares there are to sell though, as the company has reasonably not announced the total. There were a maximum of 10 million odd, but the amount that will make it to the market will certainly be less than that, and may be a whole lot less than that. Very few have made it to market so far.

But Blis drifts around all the time because the company constantly makes good business moves yet doesn't seem to get a great deal of revenue to show for it. So everyone is constantly torn between they will. they won't get good revenue going. There isn't a great deal of liquidity on the market, but so far there appears to be a core of reliable shareholders when the company does issues, which sadly they have done a few times.

As Winner says, pretty low liquidity. And the NZX often has pretty low liquidity anyway, though some shares sell well, like KIP for example.

[simla]

ps. On the liquidity thing, you should know that only a small percentage of NZers own shares in NZ directly, or that's my understanding anyway. People like property. And they like investing off shore. I put this down to 1987, when a lot of people lost a lot of money on the sharemarket in NZ. 25 years ago? Yep, but people with money are typically older and remember. However, with the passage of time, more and more people will be on the market who have forgotten or weren't there. But Kiwisaver is probably soaking up a lot of their dollars now too, again leaving you with a small pool of fellow traders maybe, especially since the Kiwisavers seem to be run by people with the same memories!

I just mention this as traders need to know what their fellow traders are thinking. Just a thought and I could be wrong anyway.

[simla]

pps. You will also find share prices move all around the world just before and after the end of financial periods, when profits and losses get booked. Not saying that is what happened here, although it was an end of period week as it happens. Same thing happens around some dividend/distribution dates if the shares are liquid enough. Some people think you can make money out of timing these dates, although again I'm not convinced.

[fungus pudding]

Hi Buncs. The main thing to know about Blis is that it has never reported a profit. Trading shares is not my thing anyway, as the chances of out-trading the next guy never seem too great to me, but trading a share that has never made a profit is entirely based on guessing the psychology of the crowd. Without a profit, there is no mathematical basis of an underlying value, nothing to pins the swings and round-abouts to, so anything could happen. Also, you might like to study the market of any shares you are thinking of trading in. Study the patterns of offers and bids and decide just how many parties you think you are really dealing with in the market, as you might conclude there are less than you might think otherwise. Or not. Entirely your call.

So I own the shares as a long term hold because I am happy to support an up-and-coming company and risk losing the money if it doesn't make it, for the good of NZ.


How on earth does your shareholding benefit NZ? It doesn't even support the company. Nobody cares who owns them.

[winner69]

How on earth does your shareholding benefit NZ? It doesn't even support the company. Nobody cares who owns them.

In this case fungus you need to regularly give the company some more cash to stay afloat ...yes to the company and not other shareholders

As such you could say benefiting nz ...maybe regular contributions to keep a few on the dole

[fungus pudding]

In this case fungus you need to regularly give the company some more cash to stay afloat ...yes to the company and not other shareholders

As such you could say benefiting nz ...maybe regular contributions to keep a few on the dole

If you think that, you're probably better to give it to the Salvation army.;)

[winner69]

Maybe that other betting agency the TAB is a better exchange - I reckon Its a Dundeel is a cert in the Rosehill Guineas in Sydney tomorrow - No 2 in Race 5 - put a $1000 on and $1500 back - 50% profit and better than trying to day trade BLT - and then if you are really trying put that $1500 on the Cowboys to beat the Warriors on Monday - and when that happens you thou is now $2200 - heck 120% return for the weekend - pretty good eh

Didn't go the thou but $500 - Its a Dundeel at 1.45 into the Cowboys at $1.43 for a return of $1036

Its a Dundeel did his thing and no way will the Warriors beat the Cowboys so in the money - yippee

Heck I'll be able to buy 60,000 BLT shares .... ha ha

Just shows that the TAB is probably a better place to gamble than that other gambling exchange the NZX .... and you can get divies all day as well

[winner69]

If you think that, you're probably better to give it to the Salvation army.;)

Het that's what they do .... hadn't thought of the capital raisings as a charitable donation ... if oyu make it direct to the Sallies at least the govt gives you a decent bit back

[simla]

Yes, but I do both! :)

More seriously, NZ really does need this stuff. If you know anyone who has come out of biotech studies, you'll know that jobs are few and far between in NZ. If you don't think that matters, maybe you might want to watch the Niall Fergusson documentaries on Prime and Choice about the enormous energies of China, who get out there making stuff while so many NZers would rather just passively take windfall profits where they can find them, whether on the share market or on houses. There's no doubting who will benefit most between those two strategies. Seriously guys, this stuff really does matter. How much longer can NZ struggle on in the face of such crushing balance of payment problems? And, yes, I am still pretty hopeful of making money on this too. Visible progress on that front would be most welcome, however!

[simla]

And let's not forget the product.

" A study in the Journal of Sexual Medicine discovered that men in their 30s who had periodontal disease were three times more likely than those without to suffer from [erectile dysfunction]." http://www.mensfitness.com/leisure/brush-up-why-your-teeth-are-crucial-to-your-health Courtesy of the Blis facebook page.

[buncs]

Buncs, not sure what winner is rambling about, maybe all those random dots and dashes are some sort of code?
In answer to your question, it would be a combination of factors such as a very small market cap, very low (penny) share price, very low volume, holiday shut down, as well as other variables. So not really surprising to see BLT make big moves either way, any trading will likely cause relatively large changes, might well be down 20 percent the next day.

You cannot really compare trading versus gambling on the ponies. Put $1000 on a horse and it loses - zippo. $1000 on a stock and it loses, you still have most of your investment. How rare would it be for you to lose all gambling on a stock? I have seen lots of odds-on gee-gees beaten at the post.

[buncs]

Also, with stocks, you can bail out if it starts to falter.

Try going up to the bookie (or the TAB) and asking for a refund when your horse starts to drop back in the field, or when your Rugby team is 2 pts up and the other team have a last minute penalty right in front of the posts.

[winner69]

Buncs, you may not have had the awful experience of selling into panic with a penny dreadful.

Who will buy your shares if there is catastrophically bad news for a company that no one likes or takes seriously?

You are ascribing blue chip depth and staying power for a company which is frankly, up against it in a sharemarket crash.

If there was a 20% crash or even a 10% correction, people will realise that Ryman, Fletchers, Mainfreight and Kiwi Income Property Trust have loads of assets to back up the company, and any big drop would likely be irrational against fundamentals. While the share price drops, Ryman still spits out cash from retirees....

But what of Blis? Who would want to buy a grossly undercapitalised penny dreadful in a crisis that has never made a profit and whose product is not well understood, not well distributed, and not well marketed?

It is very easy feeling smart in a bull market. Penny dreadfuls look like undervalued opportunities. The question is how smart you are when the bears come growling.

Bunc's post suggested he had all the traits of a gambler and I was sort of in a round about way saying that gambling is probably better off being done at the other exchange like the TAB or the casino. Gamblers on the nzx invariably lose all their money ...so buncs may as well have some real excitement on the horses or the roulette wheel ....that way you can always see fortunes being made or losing your money

Like your story about faltering markets .....like buncs says if they falter you lose your money .....and if they break a leg they normally get retired, like shot and put out their misery......sounds like BLT eh. Some places like betfair one can even lay things, like back them to lose ....they tell that option not available for BLT

Go the cowboys ..... A 106% gain over the weekend pretty good eh ...almost risk free

[skid]

Your right,but some might take that risk at 1.7 cents--wouldnt have been so good at 12cents though

[winner69]

Looks like I going to lose my money.... warriors must have taken some medicine or something

better stick to gambling with shares .... losing takes longer

[winner69]

Looks like I going to lose my money.... warriors must have taken some medicine or something

better stick to gambling with shares .... losing takes longer

LOST --- there's still next week .... might try to pick every winner in a multi and win $250,000 like that dude in Wellington did a couple of weeks ago

The way the Cowboys played you would think they were playing to lose ... ah that's it .... the match may have been fixed and the only winners are the insiders ... just like the sharemarket .... sorry those remarks are completely uncalled for - theres no drugs or cheating in the NRL and the sharemarket is as honest as they come with no shonky inside dealings eh

[winner69]

Lesson 1 = history is a poor predictor of the future. After 11 straight losses there was a strong trend in place but lo and behold the record was broken and the warriors won. But then again the odds were still 50/50 on them winning eh ... so this sort of portents good fortune for BLT one day

Lesson 2 = there's no such thing as a cert, unexpected things do happen

Lesson 3 = I accused everybody under the sun of all sort of things - the lesson is it was me who erred and shouldn't blame others for my bad decisions

Maybe Lesson 4 after next week .... don't try to catch falling knives .... I lost this week, do I double up next week to get my money back? Of course else I will crystalise my lost and theres still plenty left in the TAB account to play with

[winner69]

I am like Fat Tony ....a realist

That Taleb fellow always interesting .. I read Fooled by Randomness at least once a year just to remind me that things are often just random .....but his latest work Antifragile is a heavy read ....I think I grasp the concept but boy the book is hard work

[skid]

Not saying this is the case but that ''doubling up to win back losses is a classic in the gambling addition archives''
They say''He who fights and runs away-lives to fight another day''

[winner69]

Not saying this is the case but that ''doubling up to win back losses is a classic in the gambling addition archives''
They say''He who fights and runs away-lives to fight another day''

Don't worry about me skid .... I spasmodically raid (like I did last weekend when a cetain 500 bucks was to be made) the balance in the TAB account that has been active for zonks without ever putting any more in than the initial deposit of 100 bucks years .... and I have only been in a casino for 2 minutes (taht was enough at Sky City to put one off for life)

Good advice that about running away to fight another day .... applies to averaging down as well eh .... hence my reference to falling knives .... better to cut ones losses on some stocks and live another day

[Nigel]

I'm pretty sure that the little 50,000 parcels that intermittantly pop up on the sell side of the ledger are some of the 'small shareholding plan' shares. As soon as there's an announcement saying that they have all been sold, I'd expect to see a bit of a resurgence in the shareprice. The big unknown is around just how many shares need to be sold during this process.

[simla]

Should investors keep "averaging down" or pouring more money in via rights issues or capital raises?

Believers like Simla clearly say yes, on the grounds that Blis is closer to commercialising its probiotic lineup than most people give credit for.

Well, I would very cautiously suggest that that is a possibility. The one thing that shareholders, or me anyway, find difficult to read in all of this is just where the roadblock is. Without that knowledge, all is mere speculation.

[neopoleII]

""Should investors keep "averaging down" or pouring more money in via rights issues or capital raises?""

nice statement........ sadly i learnt that lesson way to late for this co.
after the millions that share holders have invested into this co...... it would seem fair that these investors get to see a result.....
instead we get these golden promises of mega wealth.
i have lost mega in this co and repeatedly mention this on this thread simply to warn others of what they might be in for.

i have also for a long time said that this co should be wound up and its IP sold and distributed amongst all share holders.
instead of a certain sh collecting the company for a dime

this co should be used as an example in sharetrading and investment schools as to what is allowed to happen in a publicly listed company and how a $1 share goes to less than a cent and endless company "legal" announcements can still extract cash from the public.

but...... the NZX is still cowboy land.
no wonder folks still buy into property bubbles in NZ.
having lost 6 figures....... i have learnt my most painful lesson in life....... financially. thanks to BLT and the system that allows it to continue.
i have however been rewarded with an insight to politics, financial law and family values...... family values and the ability to enjoy that is paramount.
this is why i have been extracting myself and family from financial instruments and government policy........ as they all want to screw you.
legally that is..........
since the gfc and finance company collapses and now the euro issues and god knows what next..... people still have money to invest and spend and the laws of the land still after all this still cant protect investors.

hey!..... i lost my money through lack of knowledge...... i can wear these pants.......
but for this to be still continuing 10 odd years down the track is now a farce...... and its legal.
what does that say for the system??

oh yeah..... that old adage....... a sucker is born everyday and thats how the world goes round.
and politics and security commisions is design to protect that fact.

[Stu]

Didn't go the thou but $500 - Its a Dundeel at 1.45 into the Cowboys at $1.43 for a return of $1036

Its a Dundeel did his thing and no way will the Warriors beat the Cowboys so in the money - yippee

Heck I'll be able to buy 60,000 BLT shares .... ha ha

Just shows that the TAB is probably a better place to gamble than that other gambling exchange the NZX .... and you can get divies all day as well

Epic Fail Winner. What's your next trick?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbKDY8EH6mE

[winner69]

Epic Fail Winner. What's your next trick?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbKDY8EH6mE

OK 100,000 shares in BLT ... playing safe now

[simla]

Winner, you didn't just say that you've joined the Blis shareholders list, did you?

[simla]

The supermarkets are still restocking the Gourmet ice cream and roulades, which surprises me. The company must be reclaiming some working capital, which is good.

The March announcement said, " the production and sale of ice cream and roulades under the "Gourmet" brand will cease. The launch by "Gourmet" of the BLIS probiotic ice cream has however been a successful proof of concept and it is therefore intended to maintain supply under license." It's hard to know what to make of that. The word "maintain" would seem to imply "without break" and yet the word "intend" would suggest they hadn't sewn it up at the time which would seem to imply "with a break". Likewise, does it mean the Gourmet brand will disappear or not? Presumably it will, in which case current restocking is presumably existing stock.

[simla]

pulled the plug on the ice cream project, it was rationalised as "proof of concept", and most Blis investors on Sharetrader agreed readily thus.
There were 8 flavours in the supermarket yesterday, including one I hadn't seen before, and it was sell stocked too. This thing was definitely going somewhere when they decided to pull that plug, so I don't yet assume we've seen the last of this. Change of tack seems more likely, but we'll see. Selling it and making it are two different things though. As proof of concepts go, it was pretty successful.

The ice cream is perhaps an example of so much of what Blis is doing. Set backs seem to keep arising, but Blis keeps soldiering on. In general, they haven't abandoned the original plan at all, but keep chipping away at it. It seems pretty likely that will work in the end, I would have thought.

The obvious constraint is the cash/revenue. You got the impression the company had got pretty serious about it last year. It has apparently not been endless revenue this year either though, so the most interesting part of the next report will probably be in reading (or trying to read) how the company is responding to that. The most obvious response would be to get even more determined.

Also interesting to see whether the current thaw in world confidence can flow through to Blis in the coming year. And maybe the predicted strong flu season will lift K12 sales at least here soon.

[simla]

OK 100,000 shares in BLT ... playing safe now

And there it is, one clean purchase of 100,000 shares at 13:18 today. My God, you've taken a shine to corner dairies? Can this be true? Where's my heart medication...

[simla]

Not saying, huh? Well, dreams are free. Good luck, if you did.

[simla]

There's over 200 ice creams at Thorndon on special for $6 with dates suggesting a few months old, so looks like they are definitely selling out of Gourmet.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Inching back towards the 1 cent mark.

[neopoleII]

wait for the cash call in a few months time and the dumping of large lots by prominant holders to drop the sp in order to get a bigger slice like the last time......

[Nigel]

wait for the cash call in a few months time and the dumping of large lots by prominant holders to drop the sp in order to get a bigger slice like the last time......

I don't think there will be a need for cash for a wee while, but am sure it will come eventually. I would like to think that those involved in questionable selling last time around (two names spring to mind) would not manipulate things this time as many people are watching out for it, and twice in succession would be rather damning for those individuals. The process (and equation) for converting the preference shares was always going to be open to massive manipulation - a standard rights issue not to the same extent.

The share price is definitely drifting south, but with market cap now under $10m, this represents pretty good buying in my opinion (for those who want a rather risky spec stock). As I always say, Blis are only one announcement away from a huge hike in the share price; and when it moves you want to have some in your portfolio as it tends to move quickly. Conversely, it has the tendency to drift downwards between announcements.

The global consents and new products (dental, acne, dogs etc) that got everyone so excited a month or two back haven't changed (actually, big question mark over ice-cream I guess for anyone who was expecting world domination via direct sales of K12 ice cream). I'm sure the Blis folk are still beavering away with these products and talking to potential customers in new markets. Fingers crossed we hear about a positive development soon to give the share price a kickstart.

The other negative at the moment is the unknown quantity of shares still to be offloaded as part of the small shareholder scheme. My guess is that when an announcement comes out to say that process is complete, that will be a green light for many people who are currently sitting on the sidelines to jump back in. I'd expect a significant rise on the back of that announcement. The challenge is to anticipate when that announcement may come, and working out how many (if any) shares you want to hold already in case of a sharp spike.

Good luck to all holders.

[Nigel]

BLT on the move again? Up 18% today on light volume; not much else on offer until 1.6 cents. Results due end of May, so a little bit of waiting until we get an update on progress. Could be some buying in the expectation of some good news.

[CJ]

BLT on the move again? Up 18% today on light volume; not much else on offer until 1.6 cents. Results due end of May, so a little bit of waiting until we get an update on progress. Could be some buying in the expectation of some good news.To be honest, any announcement would be good news considering there has been radio silence since they announced they are closing down their only significant revenue generating activity.

Lets hope they have been doing something over the past few months other than trying to figure out how much more cash they need to raise.

[winner69]

What a day on the NZX

BLT up 20% and ALF up 50%

Go the dogs

[simla]

The September half-year report had this to say:

"It is a disappointing financial result for the six months to 30 September but was a consequence of the December 2011 change in our global distributor; such a change represents a significant commitment involving transfer of knowledge of the science and the business of BLIS Technologies, along with the need for the distributor to implement new marketing strategies.

"The business of BLIS Technologies is extremely complex and Stratum Nutrition is making excellent progress in putting the proposition for use of our branded ingredients to participants in the global market and, although not yet reflected ingredient sales, BLIS Technologies is positioned for growth.

If this thing works, then the share price is a steal. Else it's nothing. The situation remains binary in my view, as it has for a while now. On the one hand the company vigorously pursues very sensible plans, and on the other we can't help wonder why previous efforts don't seem to be having more effect.

The question used to be: can the company implement such ambitious plans? Now it seems to be: will those plans pay off when implemented?

It sure would be nice if the company would dare to be a little more hopeful sounding. "Understated" doesn't even begin to describe how the company communicates its hopes!

[percy]

What a day on the NZX

BLT up 20% and ALF up 50%

Go the dogs

Please don't sell your EBO to feed the dogs.!!!! lol.

[Cool Bear]

Please don't sell your EBO to feed the dogs.!!!! lol.
Unfortunately I do not have EBO, but 2000 shares of EBO buys 1.5million shares of BLT. would be tempting.

[fungus pudding]

Unfortunately I do not have EBO, but 2000 shares of EBO buys 1.5million shares of BLT. would be tempting.

Alternatively $1 worth of EBO buys $1 worth of BLT. Why would that be tempting?

[simla]

Stuff it, I'll dare to be a bit positive. The following COULD be in the next report: (based on September and March 2012 company reports).


On going sales: September spoke of new sales being sourced from product purchased the previous year. How long will that go on for? Surely not forever. News on America? It has been winter in America, but I'm not aware any Blis product is currently pursuing that market? Biog did. News from Asia? What marketing are the supplement manufacturers engaging in?

Dogs: October announced a longer dog trial had started. and a Morning Report interview hoped it would be in the US and Europe market"in a year". They haven't announced it failed. The March report said pet products were a "significant" part of Novus's business, Stratum's parent. Could be big. Might not be.

China: The March 12 report said K12 was okay in China for supplements and food. It said that import licences were needed for NZPR to distribute it in China, and described NZPR as operating "extensively" throughout China. The September report spoke of still needing approval to make functional food claims in China. "still" might suggest it is part of a plan to sell food then? What sort of food might be sold in China? Blis has previously talked of ability to do: yoghurt, ice cream, milk drinks, milk powder(?), chewing gum? March report said they had a "manufacturing and marketing" agreement with NZPR to ...market and distribute K12 products. Is this going to be a food product or supplements or both? An ODT interview in February spoke of a Chinese launch possibly by the end of the year subject to unspecified approvals. This could be pretty small or pretty big and I'm not sure how we can tell which. Hard to see it not happening though.

Europe: September announced a legal opinion they could sell BLIS in Europe now. Will we hear detail of take up on that?

GRAS. September spoke of no food ingredient sales in the 2013 financial year - ie. up until now. Hopefully we will hear of what to expect next though. March said food is now okay in NZ/AUS, US, China, Japan, Taiwan and some SE Asia. Is Europe now in that list too?

Consumer awareness: Surely the elephant in the room. This requires either business partners willing to spend money promoting their proucts and/or Blis managing to make some headway. Clearly Blis have limited resources at present, and I'm not expecting to hear they are trying a Richard Branson front-page photo approach either. Still, they must surely be thinking hard about this side of things. Will we hear any news?

Q24: We must hear more on this sooner or later.

Capital issue? Who knows. Sell down of recent shares?

Overall: Meantime the company has forecast a $1.8m loss. A new year is before us however. Hard to see how one of these isn't going to pay off enough to push Blis into profit before too much longer. But will it? And will it be sooner? Or later? Maybe the company can see the reward but has to eek it out to get there? Roll on the next report!

I remain cautiously optimistic. This company remains busy and is sticking to the plan as best able. But, yeah, stronger radio signals would be good.

[winner69]

That's more than the actual company has put in the last 4 announcements combined! Looks like you have a shot at being their PR spokesman ;)

Moosie .....probably works for them

[pierre]

ACC likes BLT!

Disclosure of 5.01% holding just announced.

Interesting.

[Nigel]

That purchase of 177,000 shares must have just taken them over the 5% threshold at which point they needed to declare their position. I wonder when they started accumulating?! I wonder too, if some deal may have been done (or is being done) for them to lap up the remaining shares from the small shareholder scheme. I still think that when it's announced that those shares have been sold, then it signals a green light for more people to get back in. Right now, it's a big unknown hovering over the shareprice. Looking forward to an update later this month.

[CJ]

That purchase of 177,000 shares must have just taken them over the 5% threshold at which point they needed to declare their position. Given they have only just gone over and with such a small purchase, it makes you wonder if they did it intentionally to signal to the market that this company has potential.

[simla]

I'm not sure I would assume they just did that small trade. They have issued SSH notices on BLT for several years now.

In interpreting that, you might consider this 2011 article http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/4819185/ACC-cements-position-as-biggest-player-on-sharemarket "ACC cements position as biggest player on sharemarket ". " ACC now owns more than 4 per cent of the free float of the New Zealand stock market, giving it influence over liquidity in some of the nation's biggest listed companies as well as smaller-cap firms. "We're effectively enhanced our returns by being a seller of liquidity to the market," Bagnall says. "It works for us and it works for the market as well."

As to the sell down of small shareholders, there was a flurry last week, but the sell orders seem to have dried up now. It's hard to judge volume from the NZX graphs, but it looks like a few million have traded since the Mar 21 start of the Small Shareholder Plan. I wonder if it's not all over?

[bonne vie]

I decided to try out some product. Their on line store website certainly did not inspire my confidence. It is in very subdued colours - dull.

When you look at each product, there is a quick list summary but unless you happen to move your cursor over it, you are unaware that you can scroll it down. If the whole summary is not read then the customer misses out on the full benefits.

Sure you can choose "Details" which then provides comprehensive information but I think for clarity the full summary of benefits should hit the eye first.

IMHO it needs a good revamp

[bonne vie]

You are kidding - I guess if you only have peanuts to spend then ...

[Nigel]

Yep, it looks 100 times better than it used to.

As for the shareprice, further movement south today. Results due at the end of this month apparently. New information may provide some stimulus; that said, the forecast record loss may cast the price further downwards. Are recent trades smart money getting in, or fearful money getting out?

[simla]

That would depend on what you mean by smart money perhaps. Nobody could possibly claim that there weren't some smart cookies on the top 20 list, and presumably more we can't see below that. And the low turnover of Blis shares compared to total shares issued makes it clear that there's very little getting out going on amongst shareholders. The share price is low because of lack of buyers, not surfeit of sellers. And shareholders can hardly be expected to be voracious buyers so long as there are ongoing issues on the table taking up cash.

But yeah, we need some clear news to see ongoing demand.

[simla]

Anyway, $11,000 purchased today. Even MRP has only attracted $130m so far today ... :)

[pierre]

Wow - BLT is up 8.3% today! Much better than Mighty River - that's only up 4.8% - LOL :t_up:

[simla]

Very few companies can deserve success more than this one. Hard work and intelligence should surely deserve a reward.

Let's hope the next report brings news of reward, and at least a clearer understanding of why the company feels things are developing as they are.

[Nigel]

Very few companies can deserve success more than this one. Hard work and intelligence should surely deserve a reward.

Let's hope the next report brings news of reward, and at least a clearer understanding of why the company feels things are developing as they are.


If the Super-fund is buying in, do they know something about the upcoming report that we don't?

[simla]

Super fund? Do you know something we don't?

[Nigel]

Super fund? Do you know something we don't?

Sorry, it was ACC wasn't it. I knew it was one of those governmenty things. Or maybe it was Aaron Gilmore, I forget.

[simla]

Either the buyer or the seller made the better move! The seller just picked up about $40k in one hit apparently, but dealt out of the game pretty solidly. 10 days max to the next report.

[simla]

Interesting idea.

[Nigel]

Interesting idea.

Could be trying to get it all finished so that they can announce it's all done in the report due by the end of this month. Depending on how much stock is still left to sell, maybe Mr (or Mrs) 0.007 bid could see some action :) Could be some cheap buying this week!

[fungus pudding]

Could be trying to get it all finished so that they can announce it's all done in the report due by the end of this month. Depending on how much stock is still left to sell, maybe Mr (or Mrs) 0.007 bid could see some action :) Could be some cheap buying this week!

How do you know what's cheap?

[fungus pudding]

Going upon the 52-week trade price, 0.6 is cheap!

Except the previous 52 week price range is no indication of value in this case.

[fungus pudding]

Very true. I'd maybe buy in at 0.2 for a punt. Expecting to go lower than 1 when that report is released

You're game!

[simla]

It's not quite clear what we might be hoping for now. We know they will report a solid loss, so what else can they say? Well, they may have some slam-dunk good news, such as opening in China or having the pet product ready to hit the stores or a GRAS product or some large new customer. Or they may have no particular good news at all, although that is seldom the case with Blis. Or it might be somewhere between, leaving us uncertain what to think in light of the last couple of years.

It's very difficult to discern a pattern of obvious progress at present, and I guess the main thing we would like is an indication of picking up the momentum that appeared to be there a couple of years ago but which has since been confusing. One thing I'm sure we can count on: they will have been working hard.

[fungus pudding]

It's not quite clear what we might be hoping for now. We know they will report a solid loss, so what else can they say? Well, they may have some slam-dunk good news, such as opening in China or having the pet product ready to hit the stores or a GRAS product or some large new customer. Or they may have no particular good news at all, although that is seldom the case with Blis. Or it might be somewhere between, leaving us uncertain what to think in light of the last couple of years.



Well that pretty much covers the options.... :confused::confused:

[simla]

It's not too late to nominate me for an honorary doctorate.http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon7.png

[CJ]

Given they closed down the ice cream, they really need to show they have a new product or a new distributor to drive sales.

It is sales that have let down a lot of NZ's promising companies.

[neopoleII]

What value is there left to destroy?
in my opinion, there is huge upside potential....... but it is on a knife edge and the knife is very sharp.
the products from BLT could be a Xero success story....... if you take away current board and management.
the top shareholders have decided to call the bluff and do what they did....... and the lack of sh'er support let them do it.
the fact that A, or Some, sh'ers had influence over the board and a lot of experience dealing with the NZX....... gave them a cheap entry into a potential goldmine
if it fails........ not much lost...... if it wins...... xero potential.
and all done...."legally"
this co is a sad tale of mismanagement mis advertising, and mis communication with shareholders.
my view only as an amateur investor and a wage earner........
i just cant believe that this sort of thing can happen on the new zealand stock exchange.
no wonder most folks invest in property or their local bank deposit rates.
which....... is where i will be heading soon.
just a sad tale from start to finish......
the sadist part is the technology is world breaking and WILL be used one day to the benefit of all mankind.
ps....... friday evening and several tui's......

[simla]

Good to hear your optimism, Neopole. Who knows, good news may be just around the corner.

And as to your point about XRO, if a XRO share is currently worth $13 after announcing a loss of $14.4m, and BLT is predicting a loss of $1.8m, then the BLT share price should obviously be $1.62 :p

[simla]

Hey, "anticipate sales to increase materially", China "developments in the 2014 financial year", "milk powder". Have things turned the corner?

[simla]

" The route to market has been determined in China and this will lead to new business developments in the 2014 financial year. "

" A new initiative planned for the 2014 financial year is the further development and manufacture of a nutritional formulation based on blending our branded ingredients with milk powder."

Does that mean manufacture this financial year? Dare we connect these two dots? I certainly hope we hear more in the AGM or, dare I say it, that the ODT manage a comprehensive interview this time.

[Snow Leopard]

Mmmm, arguably this company has turned the corner so many times it is right back where it started. :lol:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[CJ]

Mmmm, arguably this company has turned the corner so many times it is right back where it started..probably more like a maze - turned so many corners but cant find the way out nor where the started!

[Nigel]

Looks like someone tried to start a run around 10:30 buying up to 1.3 on the back of the report. Only brought more sellers out of the woodwork hoping to dump their stock! Ouch!

Well that wasn't the positive update I was after. Simla has mentioned a few glimmers of hope but for me there's nothing substantial (some of it may become significant, but it all sounds some time off). Meanwhile a downturn in revenue and another capital raising on its way.

Lots of support at 0.007 and 0.009 so shouldn't go any lower than that (although those could be famous last words).

[simla]

Okay, here's my bullet summary of the report. Read it yourself obviously. https://nzx.com/files/attachments/175859.pdf

p3.
US sales : 104k, were 10k last half, so resumed to some degree.
Asia & Europe sales: 217k, were 112k to Asia last half, so steady sales, good. "Europe" mentioned for first time in sales figures?
Directors fees reinstated. Fair enough, they took a good haircut and seem to be making progress. Thanks to them for doing it at all.
Better than expected prograss in Europe and Asia
NZ revenue steady apart from Gourmet.

p4.
Cash outflow from operations of 653k
No acquisitions were made!
Preference shares finally off the books.

p5
Neither the FMA nor the NZX has got back to the company.
Last issue noted.
Company wants at least $1m in new issues.
Small shareholder plan apparently still not complete.

p6
No new products on any significant scale last year.
Stratum bought quite a bit of ingredient previous financial year and hasn't needed much since.
Significant progress in products for major international markets. Anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially.
But not significant sales into food ingredients this financial year.
Focus of the company remains to building immediate sales and achieving meaningful sales in China
Happy with where the web strategy is going.
Continued progress in intellectual property.
Animal health currently low priority.
"Personal care" low priority. Is that Q24 for cosmetic use maybe?

p7
Stratum working closely with major supplement manufacturers and consumer product manufacturers, multi-level marketers and companies in the professional channel in key markets.
Seeking licensing partners following Gourmet exercise.
Finding that companies are happy to use finished products to test markets.
Still working with long term companies such as Nestle

p8
Stratum have developed sales and marketing strategies for each geographic market.
Stratum has commenced more regular purchases of ingredients.
Product has continued to be introduced into new territories this year.
Working with Stratum to make sales revenue less lumpy.
Significant rebuilding in the US and new customers.
Developments in Canada.
Strong interest in Europe.
Products in Spain and Germany. Already in Eastern Europe, Russia and Israel.
Milk powder this year it seems? An agreement with an in-market client is expected first half this year.
Pharmabroker have introduced new packaging, and blister pack this winter.
Stirrings in Australia but require regulatory work.

p9
Web sales significant and growing. (Well done!)
Have a web-based marketing strategy.
Sales and marketing strategy being finalised in China and with a view to more companies.
[I didn't see a repeat of the sentence in the press release, but it may have been there. "The route to market has been determined in China and this will lead to new business developments in the 2014 financial year. "]
Larger products underway in Japan but takes time. Important product launch again expected "this financial year" (said the same last year I think)
Changed partners in Korea?
Products in Taiwan, Singapore and Pakistan.
Other projects in India and Pakistan.
Probiotics still made in NZ, but tablets being finished overseas too.
Intends to manufacture nutritional products at its own facilities for some customers, currently preparing, details to be announced. (What is this?)
GRAS and Europe will have a profound impact on the company.
Progressing full GRAS for K12 in US.

p10
Seeking self-affirmed GRAS for M18, need some guidance presently.
Continuing to generate trade secrets.
Continuing to support customers with technical knowledge.
Working on Malaysia area.
Working on yoghurt.
Pet trials were encouraging.
Examining childhood pneumonia.

p11
Successful clinical trial on "dental caries indicators" on children with M18. Ongoing research.

"Remains confident on the right path"
"Our partners have invested considerable funds ... and share our expectation for achieving commercial sales volumes in the near future"

p40
The Directors believe the going concern assumption is valid. ... but [usual disclaimers about future sales]

[simla]

I really can't see what you guys are seeing. That was quite a bit more positive than I was expecting. It had a sense of purpose about it again, a sense of finally engaging. They mentioned plans of "formulators and distributors to launch products ... in major international markets" and anticipating "ingredient sales to increase materially". The suggestion was that China is almost ready to roll surely. And milk powder agreement to be signed shortly is hardly small news, is it?

We've been very nervous for about two years while revenues were churning water. The last revenues were no better, but surely the company is signalling strongly that they see change coming? And if so, then what the heck else are we waiting for, as everything else is looking pretty rosy, no?

Pity about the issue, sure, but that is a result of last year not next. I was wondering what confidence I would go into that with, but this report has pretty well dispelled my own doubts there.

What report were you guys reading?

[simla]

Looks like someone tried to start a run around 10:30 buying up to 1.3 on the back of the report. Only brought more sellers out of the woodwork hoping to dump their stock! Ouch!

Sometimes a spade is just a spade! No run is necessary if I'm right in my reading of that report. My feeling is that we have finally arrived at a time of a steadily increasing share price from here on in as the company finally engages in steady sales increases. Hope I'm right.

[simla]

I'm pretty chuffed, actually.

[simla]

As I say, I don't know what report you guys were reading. I have one main skill: pattern recognition. For the last two years, patterns have been pretty confusing for Blis. But now I am seeing a cohesive across-the-board strategy in play again, and with some quite concrete signs of progress on that strategy. It really does seem mainly to have been about changing distributors as they said, and the new distributor seems to be getting some traction now.

Can't believe you guys don't think the milk powder thing matters either.

[simla]

promises vague and without credibility

Actually, Blis almost never make the slightest promise. For them to say they anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially is a major concession and I therefore would attach good probability to it. As you say though, it is nevertheless uncertain.

[simla]

Can you name this "new distributor"?
It is simple knowledge for followers of Blis that they changed their international distributor (the high level one) to Stratum about two years ago (including the year of transitioning the agreements). Following that, sales stumbled for about two years and we have waited with bated breath to find out if the change was going to work. Looks like it will, even if it has cost a lot in the meantime. That's why I take considerable heart from this.

[CJ]

Can't believe you guys don't think the milk powder thing matters either.I always struggled with the idea of taking ice cream as a 'health food' to prevent a cold. Integrating their proudct into milk or yoghurt is a much easy product to see in my opinion.

Its a share the small shareholder sell down hasn't been complete. THat has to be a major ceiling on the price at the moment and is probably the reason the buyer Moosie refered to never got very far. Once that overhang is cleared, and we (hopefully) get good news, the shareprice should add at least a few 0.1cents ;)

[CJ]

If they cant sell milk power to china, then they will never acheive anything.

[simla]

On rereading the report, a few extra points arose:

The initial milk powder maybe could be here in NZ? It wasn't very clear. p8 At no point did they say what they are selling in China.

Also, I noticed "developing other revenue streams", being "finished products" (presumably Blis tablets instead of Blis powder), and "nutritional formulations with additional healthcare benefits". p6 and "the company intends to manufacture nutritional products [plural] at its own facilities for specific customers [plural]". Details to be announced. p9 I wonder what that means.

Rheumatic fever: "working with the various parties to provide assistance in trials" but the trials are "complex and expensive" p11 On the other hand, the Budget just announced $21m for rheumatic fever over 4 years, so will that pay for some of that? John Tagg must be thrilled to be in on a major government project aimed directly at what inspired him to work on Blis in the first place. Congratulations and well done. (Probably pretty sad it's a growing need on the other hand.)

"the base of our business is forecast to increase significantly" p12 Presumably they are talking revenue here, although it doesn't specifically say so. This has to be inspiring, doesn't it?

ps. To state the obvious just in case newcomers are present, yes, I own BLT shares.

[CJ]

So they sold for an average of 11.27c (before brokerage). They got up to 3.3c at one point after the announcement.

Hopefully with that pig of their back, they can start trading on fundamentals. Now if only we knew if they were actually selling anything...

[Nigel]

So they sold for an average of 11.27c (before brokerage). They got up to 3.3c at one point after the announcement.

Hopefully with that pig of their back, they can start trading on fundamentals. Now if only we knew if they were actually selling anything...

Strange that this couldn't have been mentioned yesterday. In any case, good that this process has finished - removes the uncertainty around how many shares still need to be dumped.

Onwards and upwards? (I'm still not convinced by what we were told in the results, and slightly alarmed by the commentary in the ODT today, but then again there's nothing new there!)

[simla]

Downward weight on the share price gone. Stratum starting to bring customers to the table. Access open (or nearly so) to all the major markets they've been aiming at. Milk powder at the door (another GRAS application) along with existing chewing gum, ice cream, yoghurt and pills.

And costs of gaining all those largely behind them, apart from the next issue. (Did anyone notice the cash loss on operations last year was only 653k, and even that included allowance for 158k dividend that they later didn't pay in cash did they? So just 495k. p41. And Gourmet appeared to lose 292k in cash (p19 653-361) so did the K12 operation only lose 203k in cash all year? Not sure, seems to mean that.)

Still not a picnic, but an awful lot better than this time last year surely. Last year we had to assume and hope the logic would work out. This year there's a lot of evidence of that logic starting to work out. For the first time in a couple of years, I could see how profitability could be in reach over the next 12 to 18 months. Or with luck, maybe even before that, and maybe depending on how seriously you take all the old depreciations etc they will be obliged to report - shall we call it cash-flow positive on operations instead. It all revolves now around when and whether these new customers turn into revenue worth having, and when.

I look forward to people disagreeing with that, and I don't claim to know I'm right. Just saying I thought yesterday's report opened the door to the possibility of cash-flow positive operations in the not-too-distant future.

[Nigel]

Turning a profit or even being cash-flow positive would be a welcome and well-deserved milestone, and bring ssome much-needed investor confidence back to what is a great little company. Bring it on.

[CJ]

Strange that this couldn't have been mentioned yesterday. I assumed they finished up the selling yesterday.

[emearg]

So they sold for an average of 11.27c (before brokerage).

Umm might want to move the decimal point one place to the left.


They got up to 3.3c at one point after the announcement.
So what made you think the average selling price was 11 cents?


Hopefully with that pig of their back, they can start trading on fundamentals. Now if only we knew if they were actually selling anything...
Pretty sure they are trading on fundamentals. We do know if they are actually selling anything. 1.1 million bucks worth. Not much aye?

[emearg]

I assumed they finished up the selling yesterday.

If yesterday was the 21st of May then yes.

Sorry but why are you commenting on an announcement you haven't bothered to read properly?

[emearg]

On rereading the report, a few extra points arose:

The initial milk powder maybe could be here in NZ? It wasn't very clear. p8 At no point did they say what they are selling in China.

Also, I noticed "developing other revenue streams", being "finished products" (presumably Blis tablets instead of Blis powder), and "nutritional formulations with additional healthcare benefits". p6 and "the company intends to manufacture nutritional products [plural] at its own facilities for specific customers [plural]". Details to be announced. p9 I wonder what that means.

Rheumatic fever: "working with the various parties to provide assistance in trials" but the trials are "complex and expensive" p11 On the other hand, the Budget just announced $21m for rheumatic fever over 4 years, so will that pay for some of that? John Tagg must be thrilled to be in on a major government project aimed directly at what inspired him to work on Blis in the first place. Congratulations and well done. (Probably pretty sad it's a growing need on the other hand.)

"the base of our business is forecast to increase significantly" p12 Presumably they are talking revenue here, although it doesn't specifically say so. This has to be inspiring, doesn't it?

ps. To state the obvious just in case newcomers are present, yes, I own BLT shares.

Could be. Presumably. I wonder too. Good for John...will look good on your CV. Thrilled to support you pal. Forecast to increase. This decade? Presumably. No not really.

[emearg]

Lots of potential potential potential. Same as the last how many years? Pity the revenues don't follow.

No worries though, this year will be different. Or is it next year?

When the revenue increases we have a right to be happy. Until then it is all just words.

[emearg]

Considering how many product are out there, with plenty launched this year it is amazing how little money comes in. They must be almost giving it away. Well obviously they are to the Salvation Army but that isn't what I mean. Good on ya Salvation Army. Happy to support you fine folks :)

[simla]

Hi, Emearg. Understand the frustration! We have indeed been in waiting mode before.

But you didn't comment on the idea that Blis took a risk, that turned out to be quite a big risk, in changing distributors a couple of years ago, but that happily the company looks to be coming out of that risk in one piece now, if somewhat battered? And further, I rather sense that Stratum are going for more substantial customers on the whole, which would be good (but don't ask me to prove that beyond the occurrence of words like "major" and "international").

And if so, we would hope to see more steady growth from here on in. After all, we might assume they took the risk because things weren't going anywhere much as it stood before?

[Nigel]

Apparently the infamous trades were all above board. Who would have thought?! Although I note that the announcement just says 'no further action will be taken' without stating everything was totally acceptable/honest/honourable etc. It may be that there was commentary suggesting the trades were manipulative but that no action will be taken. Either way, Tui are about to run a new billboard: "Those BLT trades were completely kosher."

Financial Markets Authority- Edinburgh Equity Nominee Ltd 1:34pm, 4 Jun 2013 | GENERAL

BLIS Technologies has today received advice from its solicitors that the FMA has reviewed the circumstances surrounding the sales by Edinburgh between 2 - 7 May 2012, prior to the conversion of CPS to ordinary shares on 5pm 8 May 2012, and have determined that they will not be taking any further action in relation to this matter

The solicitors advice was based on a letter from the FMA dated 29 May 2013 prepared in response a request made on behalf of the Independent Directors of BLIS Technologies on 11 May 2012 regarding the sale of ordinary shares in BLT by Edinburgh in the period leading up to the conversion of BLT's convertible preference shares (CPS). The Independent Directors had sought confirmation from FMA that the sales did not amount to any breach of the Securities Markets Act 1988.

[simla]

The small shareholders plan rather changes the game. Have people noticed though?

Blis announces another issue is coming and, lo, the share price drifts down. Great chance for the next issue buyers to get in cheap, right? Who's kidding who though?

There's only a couple of hundred shareholders with over 500,000 shares ... and that's about the number who took part in the last issue.

But if all the large holders are going to take part, then only about 30% of the shares will belong to people who won't take part? Which seriously limits any profit to be made out of the next issue being at a low price, doesn't it? But it sure handicaps the company, having the share price down there.

Isn't it time shareholders showed a little more depth and started actually supporting the company instead of laughing at the share price? It's not hurting anyone now except the existing shareholders, who are now all sitting together in the same boat for the most part.

I'm not saying anyone is doing this deliberately, but I do think shareholders don't mind watching it happen. But it looks like own-goal to me.

[airedale]

I'm not a shareholder but I did my bit today when I felt a sore throat coming on. Bought some Throatguard. :)

[simla]

Excellent. But I hope you guys are using Blis M18 as well. The hygienist was again raving about the incredibly small amount of plaque I had the other day, and the dentist is always telling me how health my gums are. Yet I'm frankly too embarrassed to tell you (or them) how very little I do for my teeth ... apart from using K12 and M18 regularly.

[simla]

Pharmabroker seem to have put up a website selling Blis too. Also, views of their new packaging for Blis. Both look good to me. http://www.blisthroatguard.com/

[Grimy]

Excellent. But I hope you guys are using Blis M18 as well. The hygienist was again raving about the incredibly small amount of plaque I had the other day, and the dentist is always telling me how health my gums are. Yet I'm frankly too embarrassed to tell you (or them) how very little I do for my teeth ... apart from using K12 and M18 regularly.
I'm off to the dentist in a couple of weeks and use M18 daily (have for several months) and K12 occasionally. I haven't been for a few years so will be a good test of the product......

[simla]

Good luck, Grimy. I just stumbled across the Amazon customer reviews for Oralbiotic Blis K12. 27 reviews, and it's one of the most positive review sections I've seen on Amazon. http://www.amazon.com/Now-Foods-Oralbiotic-Blis-60-Count/product-reviews/B003P7YVTQ

And the Animal Parade M18 product has great reviews too, but only from a few people. http://www.amazon.com/Natures-Plus-Probiotic-Lozenges-Peppermint/product-reviews/B0031TMP9Q

Likewise, the Jarrow gum has a rave review, but only one person. http://www.amazon.com/Jarrow-Formulas-Jarro-Dophilus-Probiotic-Lozenge/product-reviews/B006YJC6EO

We know that the Blis products are good. But the problem is how few people have heard of it. Google returns 33,000 links for Blis K12, and 3000 for Blis M18. How many people actaully eyeball them, I wonder? There will be growth with time anyway, but we sure hope there can be a big step somewhere.

ps. The new web site I pointed at seems to be developing still. Here are some images from there (via Google) of the new packaging anyway while it comes back on line.
http://www.blisthroatguard.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Blis-Boost-Strawberry2-150x150.jpghttp://www.blisthroatguard.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/BLIS-Peppermint2-150x150.png

[simla]

Stratum progress: "several customer developments with products in different forms in the pipeline in Europe that will be on the shelves during 2013. " http://sustainability.novusint.com/content/id/37/how-does-novus-partner-for-health-and-nutrition

[simla]

I saw an ad for Blis Throatguard on TV1 Breakfast this morning. It was in tune with that new packaging above, and much more in line with a standard throat medication than previous ads which have emphasised the probiotic nature more. I thought it was pretty good.

I've been looking around a bit, and here's a website selling Blis on line in Germany too. http://www.oralflora.de/

[CJ]

I saw it on TV last night too. During Sunday I think. Very simple production but a good start to get the brand out there.

[simla]

Yes, I'm starting to sense that life is creeping back into the company's limbs after a very rocky transition of distributor. Here's hoping so anyway.

[neopoleII]

have just seen the advert and must say that it is a good ad, and placed into very good time slots of mums and dads getting their news, current affairs updates.
big tick from me...... my only concern is the expense of the time slot and how many slots they have purchased and if they can get the necessary impact for their "bang for buck"
i truly hope so......
this advertising campaign is a very good one and well thought out...... but i wonder if it could also be "the last shot" before the cash is gone.
these ads should of been planned and played several years ago.
here's hoping

[simla]

Yes, I reread that report. I felt it portrayed that they were as surprised as us that the last couple of years have proved such heavy going, and that the transfer of distributor was quite so disruptive. But also that they nevertheless feel that the right things are in place and that it was likely to pay off sometime soon. But with the caveat that they hadn't expected the last couple of years to be that difficult, so they were cautious about being too confident of the future, as I suppose we are too.

Cautiously optimistic, in short, though. That's my reading anyway.

Another thing I picked up this time was that Stratum (NNB, as they are now referring to them) maybe have stronger existing relationships in Europe in this area? Anyway, they did say "strong interest in BLIS ingredients in Europe" and "[Europe] is anticipated to be key to the future success of the Company and NNB". (p8) Plus some confidence that Japan was going to pay off for them, which is good considering what a huge population it has. They also noted that Stratum made "better than expected progress in Europe and Asia" (p3) which is good since Asia did not seem to be going that strongly under the previous arrangement.

Plus those four key phrases: "we anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially" (p6); and "the route to market has been determined in China and this will lead to new business developments in the FY 14" (p11), and "[USA] projects starting to come to fruition" (p8); and, as mentioned, "strong interest in BLIS ingredients in Europe" (p8). We wouldn't need very much success in any of those markets to be pretty happy.

I noticed, too, that Stratrum has "developed sales and marketing strategies" (p7), described as "upper respiratory, otitis media, halitosis and applicable immune application for BLIS K12" and "teeth and gum health for BLIS M18". That's actually an interesting realignment, I thought. So they have taken "gum" off their target list for K12 so as not to confuse the M18 issue, and specifically decided to aim K12 at broader health issues. I think that is pretty sensible and some good work by somebody.

I also appreciated that the company was able to be so very clear in describing what they thought the last year or so had been about, which they then summed up as, "Execution has proved frustratingly difficult"(p6). I'm certainly extremely grateful to them for boxing on with what must surely have been fairly discouraging progress at times.

And, yes, many thanks indeed to departing Dr Max Shepherd for many years work as a director of the company. I think we are very lucky that the Blis Board uncomplainingly box on year after year, and have definitely brought about a very significant improvement in the outlook of the company.

"the Company remains confident that it is on the right path to commercialisation" (p11). That's the question on all out minds. After re-reading that report, I personally tend to agree. The change over to Stratum now seems to have got into gear with the suggestion of delivering revenue in the nearish future. If that happens, I guess we will all be very happy. Until then, bated breath? But I personally remain of the view that the current share price is absurd. The share price paints a picture of a company on its knees. But that wasn't what I saw in that report.

[simla]

The latest chemist flyer advertises Blis Throatguard blister pack. 2 blister packs in the box, total 16 lozenges for $11.99, and looking for all the world like a standard packaging for the usual throat lozenges. Promising move, I'd have thought.

It's also available from the new Throatguard website, which is still being developed by the look of it. Seems to belong to Pharma broker. http://www.blisthroatguard.com/shop/

[Blue Horseshoe]

I was wondering why Blis don't produce a chewing gum or mint like Smint does, Smint has the active ingredient Xylitol which reduces plaque, I would have thought Blis K12 or M18 in these products would do a better job and the sales would be sky high.? NO Blis NO Kiss.

[GR8DAY]

Yes, I reread that report. I felt it portrayed that they were as surprised as us that the last couple of years have proved such heavy going, and that the transfer of distributor was quite so disruptive. But also that they nevertheless feel that the right things are in place and that it was likely to pay off sometime soon. But with the caveat that they hadn't expected the last couple of years to be that difficult, so they were cautious about being too confident of the future, as I suppose we are too.

Cautiously optimistic, in short, though. That's my reading anyway.

Another thing I picked up this time was that Stratum (NNB, as they are now referring to them) maybe have stronger existing relationships in Europe in this area? Anyway, they did say "strong interest in BLIS ingredients in Europe" and "[Europe] is anticipated to be key to the future success of the Company and NNB". (p8) Plus some confidence that Japan was going to pay off for them, which is good considering what a huge population it has. They also noted that Stratum made "better than expected progress in Europe and Asia" (p3) which is good since Asia did not seem to be going that strongly under the previous arrangement.

Plus those four key phrases: "we anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially" (p6); and "the route to market has been determined in China and this will lead to new business developments in the FY 14" (p11), and "[USA] projects starting to come to fruition" (p8); and, as mentioned, "strong interest in BLIS ingredients in Europe" (p8). We wouldn't need very much success in any of those markets to be pretty happy.

I noticed, too, that Stratrum has "developed sales and marketing strategies" (p7), described as "upper respiratory, otitis media, halitosis and applicable immune application for BLIS K12" and "teeth and gum health for BLIS M18". That's actually an interesting realignment, I thought. So they have taken "gum" off their target list for K12 so as not to confuse the M18 issue, and specifically decided to aim K12 at broader health issues. I think that is pretty sensible and some good work by somebody.

I also appreciated that the company was able to be so very clear in describing what they thought the last year or so had been about, which they then summed up as, "Execution has proved frustratingly difficult"(p6). I'm certainly extremely grateful to them for boxing on with what must surely have been fairly discouraging progress at times.

And, yes, many thanks indeed to departing Dr Max Shepherd for many years work as a director of the company. I think we are very lucky that the Blis Board uncomplainingly box on year after year, and have definitely brought about a very significant improvement in the outlook of the company.

"the Company remains confident that it is on the right path to commercialisation" (p11). That's the question on all out minds. After re-reading that report, I personally tend to agree. The change over to Stratum now seems to have got into gear with the suggestion of delivering revenue in the nearish future. If that happens, I guess we will all be very happy. Until then, bated breath? But I personally remain of the view that the current share price is absurd. The share price paints a picture of a company on its knees. But that wasn't what I saw in that report.


........SURELY JUST A MATTER OF TIME SIMLA BEFORE A LARGE MULTI-NATIONAL MAKES A FULL TAKEOVER BID (at these prices).........AFTER ALL THE PRODUCTS AND ATTACHED TECHNOLOGY IS A WORLD FIRST. THE CURRENT TV ADVERTISING MAY HASTEN THIS HAPPENING?......AGREE THEY HAVE DONE A PROFESSIONAL JOB AND I STILL HAVE HIGH HOPES THIS WILL TURN INTO INCREASED SALES. ALL CREDIT TO THE DIRECTORS FOR "PUSHING ON" IN LIGHT OF A SHARE PRICE THAT HAS BEEN DECIMATED BY SENTIMENT AND A POOR HISTORICAL SHOWING. MY ONE CRITICISM RE: THE NEW ADDS IS THAT I THOUGHT THEY COULD'VE MAKE A BIGGER POINT ABOUT THE "WORLD FIRST PROBIOTIC" NATURE OF BLISS.......HOPEFULLY PEOPLE ARE PICKING UP ON THAT HUGE POINT OF DIFFERENCE!! I WONDER HOW LONG BEFORE WE KNOW IF THIS SPEND IS TURNING INTO AN INCREASE IN REVENUE??

[easy money]

Some interest in blt today..could be making a move upwards soon..

[Nigel]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10899046
Article about alarming level of strep throat in school kids.... maybe the Government should buy truckloads of Blis and try to combat this??

[simla]

The 2013 company report said (p11), "New Zealand has major issues with rheumatic fever and the Company is working with the various parties to provide assistance in trials that could utilise BLIS K12TM. While there is strong evidence for the potential efficacy of the strain, the requirements for a trial are complex and the costs very significant."

So Blis are in there, but nothing's ever that simple with government. Ironically the same company report mentioned two trials showing K12 reduced strep throat (p10). Maybe they want multi-year trials despite having a big problem here with lots of research already behind Blis? Hopefully the Blis free supplies to Salvation Army in Otago/Southland will be helping?

A problem too would surely be getting disorganised, stressed -out families to take K12 in some form, but maybe ice cream, yoghurt or gum would help there. Anyway, hope Blis can help.


Blis's sales are anyway surely booming after they advertised during Coronation Street last week! I'm not a regular, so don't know how often they've been doing that.

[GR8DAY]

The 2013 company report said (p11), "New Zealand has major issues with rheumatic fever and the Company is working with the various parties to provide assistance in trials that could utilise BLIS K12TM. While there is strong evidence for the potential efficacy of the strain, the requirements for a trial are complex and the costs very significant."

So Blis are in there, but nothing's ever that simple with government. Ironically the same company report mentioned two trials showing K12 reduced strep throat (p10). Maybe they want multi-year trials despite having a big problem here with lots of research already behind Blis? Hopefully the Blis free supplies to Salvation Army in Otago/Southland will be helping?

A problem too would surely be getting disorganised, stressed -out families to take K12 in some form, but maybe ice cream, yoghurt or gum would help there. Anyway, hope Blis can help.


Blis's sales are anyway surely booming after they advertised during Coronation Street last week! I'm not a regular, so don't know how often they've been doing that.


Kiaora SIMLA.....yep they're not mucking around with their commitment to TV advertising that's for sure........Ive seen a couple of adds running on absolute Prime Time tele....around 6pm. Am I presuming right to think this will be PHARMBROKERS dollars being spent.........or maybe a shared cost?? Whatever it must surely be paying dividends now.

[JP]

Can anyone give a brief summary of how the AGM went and in particular what was the result of the resolution re ceasing listing on the NZX.

[simla]

Releases on NZX. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/225393

Delisting voted down. Good.

They think they can sell into Europe now because it is non-novel. Great.

Capital raising seems to involve selling licences. Sounds a good idea, and doesn't sound like we'll be asked for cash, but we really need someone who was there to tell us more!

Ice cream sales going well. Internet sales growing. New products in several countries. Doesn't sound like an import licence in China yet, but NZPR doing work readying for sales.

Q24 developing.

If they are desperate in any way at all, they sure didn't seem to feel any need to mention it in those presentations!

Is there anyone who was there can tell us more?
This was my post last July when the last AGM was held, and when the delisting was discussed. A while ago! Happily (in my opinion) we voted down the delisting. Next AGM Aug 30 2013.

[simla]

I'll be curious to see if cash flow has made any progress. We've had the TV ads in NZ so potentially increased sales there. Who paid for those - Pharmabroker or Blis or both? The ice cream production has stopped, but actually I've still been enjoying the ice cream all this time as they run down their stock, still available in the local supermarket, which has presumably produced some cash with little expenditure. And Stratum said this recently "products in different forms in the pipeline in Europe that will be on the shelves during 2013. " http://sustainability.novusint.com/content/id/37/how-does-novus-partner-for-health-and-nutrition raising the question of when this will produce cash for Blis - some pre-ordering needed surely? Against that, I presume Blis are spending money on the future as usual. And then there's been no obvious flurry of new activity on the net, that I've seen anyway. And still no news on the milk powder or the on-site nutritional production, whatever that is.

Essentially we remain unsure if Blis is quietly finding its way back on to the main road, or whether traction remains difficult. Will we hear anything definitive either way this AGM?

[JP]

Thanks for that Simla. Stupid me read last years Notice 0f AGM as this years.

Cheers

[Nigel]

When is the AGM? Investors are in desperate need of an update! There's currently a massive overhang of sellers, with very little depth on the buy side at all. I'm always anxious that if one significant seller needs some cash, then the SP could plummet. Ordinarily I'd be looking to those situations to buy some more, but with a real absence of information (ie sales figures) I'd be reluctant to do so at the moment.

[simla]

Hi, Nigel. Still 3 weeks to the AGM. I'm not sure how much new info there can be. We obviously hope to hear more about China, Europe, Japan, America, GRAS, milk powder, dogs maybe, etc. But a surge in sales over just a few months might be a bit hopeful.

Personally I think Blis has reached that "act of faith" moment for investors. If Stratum succeed in reinvigorating sales then we're away. If not, it remains a bit of a struggle. They are the global distributors after all, give or take a bit. But the fun and games of the last couple of years is surely largely off the table: they've had time to get out into the market now and what will the result be in the coming 6 to 12 months?

Some shareholders will be salting away cash for the next issue already announced in the last report, which means people who might otherwise buy are not big on cash maybe. Or maybe they are just doing nothing.

Other investors seem to be taking the safer route of buying shares for 1600 to 1700 times the price in another company! Volume of $1.7m just so far today.

Despite the revenue of the last two years, I remain optimistic. If sales in NZ were replicated overseas we'd be very happy chappies. The central question is what is stopping that happening and is that obstacle being dismantled? We hope that the passage of time and the change of global distributor is dismantling that obstacle. If not, well ... Personally I'm happy to see through another 12 months on the current news. The last couple of years have definitely not been a lot of fun though.

[simla]

An announcement of some significance from Blis this afternoon. Good news/bad news, but looks like more good news than bad. They updated their sales forecast for the year which probably won't disappoint either.

Worth a read definitely.

[Nigel]

An announcement of some significance from Blis this afternoon. Good news/bad news, but looks like more good news than bad. They updated their sales forecast for the year which probably won't disappoint either.

Worth a read definitely.

Where are you seeing this announcement??... all I can see is the date/time for AGM.

[CJ]

Where are you seeing this announcement??... all I can see is the date/time for AGM.https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/239658
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/179674.pdf

[winner69]

Yep ...sales forecast for this financial increased to $1.9 mill

Must have bought another dairy

[Nigel]

Thanks guys. Have had a quick read. Like simla says, some good points, some bad. Someone likes the news, as they've bought $7000 worth. I'm probably a bit more negative - the dilution is pretty severe (a $7m company raising $3m in funding), Edinburgh stumping up only around 8% of the funds isn't the biggest vote of confidence in the world, and more importantly, the developments in milk powder and China still seem very distant. On the plus side, a 60% lift in projected revenue is promising (although time will tell if that eventuates). And still abig overhang on the sell side of the register.

[Nigel]

PS. I'd love to know who bought the $60 parcel of shares this morning. Surely not an insider wanting to make the 0.01 issue price to look better (eg 20% discount rather than just 10%)? Surely not.

[simla]

Well, I'll be interested to hear opinions of that.

Good points: sales growth forecast (1.9m this year, p18; and they apparently expect 68% compounding growth for next 4 years, p23); loss of 1m this year, p17 (but about 600k depreciation/amort last year); will be cashed up; other parties judge the place worth investing in; more than one large shareholder, so large shareholders slowly attracted to Blis?.

Bad points: big dilution again, but shareholders expected to get a bite again soon, at a cost.

Overall: appear to hope for a profit next financial year; will have cash; will be quite a bit of dilution; other parties on board. No fat ladies currently on stage!

Can't see shareholders voting this down despite it being a big move. (Both of those new companies are listed at the government registry: http://www.business.govt.nz/companies)

[simla]

I must say that Blis has the most amazing ability to find new surprises. I didn't see this coming.

[simla]

Well, assuming the shareholders agree to this, in about three weeks time we'll have: projected 66% increase in sales this year, with ongoing projected growth; quite a bit of cash; several big backers. And hopefully the whole change of distributor coming to fruition. Better than a poke in the eye.

And there is devaluation percent-wise but not in value per share in dollar terms, is there? Long term, are shares more worthwhile or less after this? Seems likely more worthwhile because the company appears to have a better future this way. Just my opinion at first glance. Other's opinions?

Interesting to think why they want $3m. Last years' cash burn was only about $1m, p19. Are they just playing safe, or do they anticipate payoff around the corner for more cash? Or, best of all, a bigger need for working capital.

[CJ]

Agree with your points Simla. Given it has been trading at 1c, while it is a 'dilution', the value of your share is still the same due to the cash they are injecting.

[blobbles]

My interest would be on the new Director (and large shareholder from ... last year I believe?) Xu Qi Wu. Clearly this is a Chinese person, are they looking to really start driving Blis products into China and if so, what is their experience and guangxi in the Chinese market? Anyone going to the AGM want to ask? The reason I ask of course is that China could be (and hopefully will be) massive for Blis, have they got the right people in place to be massive?

[GR8DAY]

..WELL FROM MY QUICK READ IT'S SOUNDING MORE POSITIVE THAN NEGATIVE. $3M IS A LARGE CASH INJECTION BY BLISS' STANDARDS AND SHUD ENABLE THEM TO PUSH FORWARD (yes hopefully into China and 10 billion M18s swallowed a week!).....and without calling on us smaller shareholders, tho I for one would be more than happy to top up further if given the opportunity. It's all starting to "feel" more positive. Hugely underpriced in my opinion....at least we have some kind of "future" now to look forward to and ponder?? Also with these new large shareholders on board and should the SP strengthen we may have a new source of working capital at our fingertips??

[neopoleII]

with a 3 million cash injection..... which seems alot more than necessary..... my take on this is.....
a run up to a share consolidation and then dumping another few thousand holders of the registry.
BLT has a history of trying to delist, to dump SHer of certain holding volumes etc.
with 3 mill of new share the total will be several billion share with a $ value less than a very good lotto win.
wait for the consolidation notice ...... in my view they will slice of 3 zeros from peoples holdings and then instigate the 20,000 min shareholding again.

result......... probably lest than a hundred holders.
all new investors while the original $1 investors are shafted.
i love that saying....... the early bird gets the terd....... DOH the worm.

[CJ]

... in my view they will slice of 3 zeros from peoples holdings and then instigate the 20,000 min shareholding again.

result......... probably lest than a hundred holders.minimum holding requirements are based on share value, effectively requiring a holding of $500.

https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/section240.asp

If they slice 3 zeros of, the share price will go up, so the minimum requirement will drop.

[simla]

Nil desperandum, Neopole. Personally I thought that was the most upbeat news we've had from Blis in a long time, and I'm certainly looking forward to the AGM news in a couple of weeks to see if it confirms that they see good times around the corner. p22 and p23 are worth a revisit in particular if anyone missed what they said.

[simla]

Blis facebook lists these radio ads for K12 and M18, advertising sales at blis.co.nz. That's new, but it doesn't say where they are being heard. Anyone heard them on the radio?
https://soundcloud.com/blisk12/blis-m18

[simla]

Sales are quietly ticking over in BLT, not earth shattering but picking up since the appraisal report on Aug 14.

So why buy? Well, an obvious answer is a gamble on good news from the AGM on Friday. (Of course, the shareholders may turn down the issue, but it's hard to imagine that.)

Or maybe it's long term hold, because probably shareholders are going to be able to buy at 1 cent in this issue round, but only up to $15,000 and after that it's buy on the market or don't buy at all. If BLT is going somewhere, then these shares at 1.1/1.2 cents may not be on the market a whole lot longer? That would depend on the news, I suppose.

And meanwhile there's a small queue of sell orders at 1.2, presumably people hoping to sell those on good news to fund their issue purchase at 1.0.

Which will be the better strategy - trade or hold? Or not own at all! I wish I knew that. But I'm definitely getting interested in what's going on with Blis presently. They don't need $3m just to struggle on, I'd say, so is the $3m good news? And these bigger backers presumably had some sort of due dlilgence opportunity before putting up this money, or are already business partners of BLT, so is that promising?

Roll on Friday.

[simla]

I imagine the people putting in $1m and $0.6m in this round wouldn't agree with that, Moosie.

[simla]

Hey, any company that isn't making money is open to the question of whether management and marketing are the problem.

Like most shareholders therefore, I'm sure, I've asked myself that from time to time too, but I can honestly say I have never felt that was the case. The strategy makes sense to me and they have consistently pursued it for about 5 years now, give or take a couple of diversions. The marketing is constantly improving in NZ, and we're hoping to see some measurable progress overseas now. We'd always like to see better on marketing, naturally.

A contrary view, of course, was expressed in the Xero presentation recently that pointed out that companies aiming for big markets lose more money than if they aim for small markets, and the idea is to get a payback afterwards.

We'll see. More info this Friday hopefully.

ps. There's nothing stopping existing shareholders from selling out that I'm aware of.

[simla]

The only time to own BLT was during the speculation phase early this year when the SP tripled on basically nothing.

Other than that, it's business as usual grabbing more cash and burning through it steadily...

Hi, Moosie. I value your posts as you do your homework and you obviously have a brain. And you're good at spotting the main point.

But you also have a very direct way of talking. The above post, for example, had no softening words to indicate respect, like "sorry to disagree, but..." or "Maybe so, but ...", or such.

I know young people prefer direct talk, but not all of us are that young here! When you get older, which alas you will, you'll sadly discover that such blunt disagreement is rather hard to absorb. I honestly do hold back from posting on occasions because I don't have the energy to absorb the blunt disagreement that I can expect following many posts. I have a sneaking suspicion I'm not the only one, but how would I know?

Honestly, I really am glad to read your posts (here as well as other threads) but a little softening would be okay for some of us older folks too. Sparky's post said the same thing, but was an easier read. Meant in a very positive way, honest! http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon7.png

[winner69]

Moosie .....YELLOW CARD mate

However you take this keep up the good work

[simla]

Yes, I know you mean well and definitely contribute a lot. Thanks for takling this as positively meant. My fault for being older!

[simla]

Cheers. http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon7.png

[simla]

Blis now part of the Kawerau Rheumatic Fever Prevention Program. Already being handed out in Otago too, of course. If growing acceptance came of Blis for health protection in poorer families, that would open a whole new area of growth. It's cheap enough, and the evidence suports this use. Well done Blis. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240402

We may all end up living on Blis yet given the ever plummeting service available at hospitals these days. Avoiding going there may become quite a high priority for people. Appalling levels of nurse support due to funding at Wellington Hospitals, have see pretty similar stories in Britain. http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/9099400/Rationed-care-cuts-deep-say-patients

[hilskin]

Presentation now out

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/180909.pdf

Progress
• Anticipate first 6 month trading revenue for 2014 FY will be 65% of last
years total revenue (last year - $1,121k)
• Increased ingredient sales, especially in Japan and Europe
• Increased NZ pharmacy and web consumer sales
• Making good progress with several business development projects

[simla]

More can be said, as it looks pretty positive to me. GRAS sales around the corner?? Pet product too. Milk beverages for Asia. Even "profit in forseeable future", which is a first statement for them.

https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481

Lots of cash, $2.2m already. Expect 3.5 -4.5m total
Shareholders to get a go later this year, max $15,000 at max 1 cent.
Considerable dilution. About 1 billion shares total by my count!

Seems like Stratum is ingredients, but NZPR and APPL (and others) get to do nutrition stuff?
Sinopharm appointed to distribute in China. "Sinopharm is the largest pharmaceutical company in China."
Increased sales in Europe, NZ and Japan and web. Loss still expected during next 6 months.

Nutritional plant opening in September, then apply for export licence. Not infant formula. "The Company will in conjunction with third parties produce and market milk based formulations mainly for Asian markets. These nutritional formulations will include beverages with BLIS K12TM and BLIS M18TM ingredients providing functional foods with BLIS trademarks."
"companion animal health care product containing BLIS K12TM in Japan."
"expected to deliver profitable operations in the foreseeable future."

"Although the Company has yet to achieve profitable operations shareholders were advised that upon completion of the capital raising initiatives it will have the capital base necessary to support its strategy of pursuing global ingredient sales in conjunction with its primary distributor Novus Nutrition Brands and the parallel implementation of consumer oral product strategies with its trade partners including Asia Pacific Partners Ltd, NZPR Group and others. These strategies will continue to be supported by investment in the underlying science of its proprietary probiotic strains and regulatory approval processes and are expected to deliver profitable operations in the foreseeable future."

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/180909.pdf

" Italian market is of particular interest with K12 and soon M18 in premium applications via Bactoblis & associated brands"
" The BLIS production facility in Dunedin is almost complete – package finished retail products & nutritional formulations"
" Nutritional formulations - in conjunction with NZ businesses for milk-based BLIS formulations for mainly Asian markets"
" Nutritional formulations include beverages with BLIS K12 TM and BLIS M18TM to provide functional foods with BLIS trademarks"
" NZ pharmacy sales have increased significantly in 2014 FY, with new packaging and blister packaging formats"
" Current business strategy will lead to a much broader base of consumer product sales"
" Asia Pacific Partners is also an important strategic partner with extensive business connections particularly in Asia and the Middle East. Currently evaluating several opportunities"

[simla]

Blis's recent time in the wilderness is suddenly beginning to look like history. Plugging on during that time seems to have produced results!

[Nigel]

A lot more positive than I expected. Onwards and upwards?

[simla]

This appears to be the Japanese animal product http://translate.google.co.nz/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kyoritsuseiyaku.co.jp%2Fproduct s%2Fdetail%2Fca%2Fproduct_211.html&sandbox=1 http://www.kyoritsuseiyaku.co.jp/products/detail/ca/product_211.html

And here it is on a couple of pet store sites. http://www.petgo.jp/store/dog/productdetail/do/code/4992945115672 http://laminas-petnet.ocnk.net/product/6
And at amazon japan http://www.amazon.co.jp/%E3%83%87%E3%83%B3%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AB%E3%83%90%E3%8 2%A4%E3%82%AA/dp/B00E25L56C
And a blog http://www.tsukakoshi-ah.com/news/%E3%81%8A%E5%8F%A3%E3%81%AE%E5%81%A5%E5%BA%B7%E7%B 6%AD%E6%8C%81%E3%81%AB%E3%80%8C%E3%83%87%E3%83%B3% E3%82%BF%E3%83%AB%E3%83%90%E3%82%A4%E3%82%AA%E3%80 %8D%EF%BC%81/

[blobbles]

Plus a 10 for 1 share consolidation would be advisable, these numbers are starting to make me dizzy every time I look at them...

[Nigel]

Plus a 10 for 1 share consolidation would be advisable, these numbers are starting to make me dizzy every time I look at them...

Interesting to see a lift in share price today. I would have thought that the significant wad of shares on offer at 1.2c - plus the upcoming opportunity to buy at 1.0c - would have parked the SP at 1c a bit longer.

I'll be interested to see the half year profit result - they've only referenced increased revenues but not commented on expenditure etc.

I must admit, I expected quite a dour announcement, but it shows a lot of promise.

Good luck to holders :)

[simla]

Need to see them walk the walk, remember!

Sadly, that is true. Still, the chances of success seem to have improved dramatically now with several avenues for success now.

[simla]

Interesting to see a lift in share price today. I would have thought that the significant wad of shares on offer at 1.2c - plus the upcoming opportunity to buy at 1.0c - would have parked the SP at 1c a bit longer.
I'll be interested to see the shareholder issue. The statement said it would be a maximum of 150m shares. At $15,000 max, 100 shareholders would take that out, whereas the last report said there were 1143 shareholders. Given that the news is suddenly pretty promising, is there the possibility of over-subscription? In any case, anyone who wants more than $15,000 worth, given the news, obviously still has to get them on the market.

Yes, I'm pretty cheerful with that news. The channels whereby they can reach useful revenues have increased a lot. China, Europe, America, Japan, milk products, Middle East, Stratum, NZPR, APPL, web sales, dog products, Q24, etc. We don't know what the milk products are, but the possibilities appear to be yoghurt, ice cream, chocolate milk, or powder?

Blis still remains a start-up until it shows profit, and therefore there is still the possibility of failure ahead. But surely the chances of that have just dropped dramatically. I'm optimistic, that's for sure.

[simla]

Are Nigel and I really the only ones who saw good news in that? Oh well, 12 months data should settle the matter. Always interesting to discover other people's reactions, agree or disagree.

[THEONE]

Looks like great news, Thanks simla for your analysis. Looks like Blis will be making money soon, only question is timing and how much. It appears allot of the risk has gone.
Please do your own research though, as this is only my opinion, quite often I have been wrong!
www.klickex.com

[simla]

Thanks, TheOne. At first sight this would appear to be the news we've been waiting for for several years now, and I was expecting just a little mild excitement at least. But I guess at this stage maybe people feel they'll believe it when they see the money. As with you, that's just my opinion though. Next news in November presumably.

[CJ]

Simla - it's good news. The question is can they execute it to reasonable scale.

The SSP at 1c will be putting a lid on the price a bit. Anyone thinking of topping up a little will hold back and anyone planning on entering will only buy a small amount.

[winner69]

Did you guys read shoeshine in the NBR the other week

Quite a few insights into the new investors

And wont Dame Jenny Shipley be good for BLT .... huge amount of experience and her contacts in China are invaluable and corporate governance will be strengthened. Bit of a coup

[simla]

Did you guys read shoeshine in the NBR the other week
A surprisingly upbeat view of Blis, I thought (23 Aug). They weren't raving about Blis, but quite a bit more accepting than some of the comments on here at times! Written before Friday's news, of course.

It certainly will be interesting to see how effective APPL are for Blis. The news on Friday used the word "will" a couple of times in relation to the APPL projects where they might have said "hope to", so maybe real projects in train already? (They also said "ingredients" with Stratum but "consumer oral product" in relation to both APPL and NZPR (last paragraph) so just maybe food products into China?? Who knows.)

[simla]

Simla - it's good news. The question is can they execute it to reasonable scale.
Worrying about the scale of their success beats the alternative... Fair point, of course. Thanks, CJ.

[CJ]

Simla - it's good news. The question is can they execute it to reasonable scale.



Worrying about the scale of their success beats the alternative... Fair point, of course. Thanks, CJ.The executed the Ice Cream but didn't get it to reasonable scale. Sure it was only a proof of concept but only a kid would have dreamed up the idea of putting a cold 'medicine' into ice cream (still dont know why they didn't choose yoghurt???). Current plan looks better, we've got money on the line that they will pull it off.

[GR8DAY]

.........WHAT'S THE PRICE SET AT FOR THE SPP.....anybody know??

[CJ]

.........WHAT'S THE PRICE SET AT FOR THE SPP.....anybody know??I though it was 1c

[simla]

"...shareholders will have the right to apply for up to $15,000 of shares at no more than 1 cent per share pursuant to a Share Purchase Plan to be conducted later this year for up to 150 million shares." https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481

[GR8DAY]

.....cheers SIMLA, Im in.

[Nigel]

.....cheers SIMLA, Im in.

You may not have to pay 1c if you wait a bit! Pretty good report, still lots of promise, yet people are selling at 1c and buyers are not fronting up. Maybe people are just wondering how low this could go. Certainly if some of the 1.2 sellers get impatient, there aren't too many buyers to pick up the shares.

[CJ]

You may not have to pay 1c if you wait a bit! Pretty good report, still lots of promise, yet people are selling at 1c and buyers are not fronting up. Maybe people are just wondering how low this could go. Certainly if some of the 1.2 sellers get impatient, there aren't too many buyers to pick up the shares.Its bounced of 1c all year and has been trading in the 1c-1.2 range for the last 3 months. Unlikely it will go below 1c IMHO.

[simla]

You may not have to pay 1c if you wait a bit! Pretty good report, still lots of promise, yet people are selling at 1c and buyers are not fronting up. Maybe people are just wondering how low this could go. Certainly if some of the 1.2 sellers get impatient, there aren't too many buyers to pick up the shares.
Does it matter if it drops in the short term anyway, as it would not be significant volume likely? With a billion shares (is that the right total now?), someone would have to pick up around 100 million to have made a major advance and I wouldn't think much chance of that on the market personally, and certainly not at less than 1 cent.

I still think the share issue could be interesting. It is only an average of about $1300 per shareholder (say 130,000 shares at 1 cent) to fill the maximum 150m share issue, using the 1143 shareholders listed in the March report, by my maths anyway. How many will subscribe? If the November report is positive (following the positive March report, the positive Aug 14 news and the positive last week's news (my opinion only, naturally)) then people may no longer have the luxury of playing footsie with the BLT share price.

They might actually have to engage some brain cells and decide what they are willing to pay for real if people are looking to buy in larger numbers than want to sell! With 1 billion shares, a million dollar profit is 0.1 cents per share, isn't it? With a PE of 20 (growing company at that point?) that is a share price of 2 cents per million in profit, isn't it? (Check the maths yourself, obviously.)

Now the Aug 14 appraisal https://nzx.com/files/attachments/179674.pdf said on p22/23 "The base case FCF adopted in the DCF valuation are based on the BLIS financial forecasts for the 5 years to 2018 as set out in the BLIS financial model that was prepared for the Board in June 2013." ... "The key assumptions adopted in BLIS’s FCF are: * revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 68% between the 2014 financial year and the 2018 financial year * contribution margin increasing from 63% in the 2014 financial year to 68% in the 2018 financial year" and "* the Company’s $14.9 million of tax losses as at 31 March 2013 are fully utilised by the 2018 financial year"

All just mere forecasts of course, but people over on the PEB thread seem happy to enjoy their forecasts. Cat amongst the pigeons sometime soon? Or is this just me as a shareholder wishing it were so! Feedback very welcome.

Whatever happens over the next year, I think we can assume Blis-watching once again ceases to be boring. The central question appears to be: how much of this do we believe before we see it actually come to pass - and when would that be? I wish I knew!