BLT - Blis Technologies [Archive] - Page 14

Flugenbear

03-09-2013, 06:21 PM

Interesting to think why they want $3m. Last years' cash burn was only about $1m, p19. Are they just playing safe, or do they anticipate payoff around the corner for more cash? Or, best of all, a bigger need for working capital.

Hi Simla,
I was a holder but sold out few weeks ago....decided to buy back in again after the report.
I think BLT has great products but I am still a bit concerned how effective they are going to be getting them to the market place.
I hope a good portion of the 3+mil will be used to achieve this. If you think about it, that's really not a lot of cash when trying to compete in a very competitive industry, even with these somewhat unique products.
I would also prefer that they focused on one region, perhaps Asia, rather than trying to do bits all over...perhaps leave US and Europe until established more...just my opinion here.
Anyway, right now things are as positive as they have been for some time, but still plenty of uncertainty.

simla

03-09-2013, 08:09 PM

Yes, 3 mil isn't much in the grand scheme of things. But if they are predicting a $1m loss this year (appraisal report p17) and they had about 550k in amort/depreciation last year (p3 annual report 2013), and they have a 60% gross margin (see above "contribution margin", which I assume means that) then they only need to pick up revenue by 1 to 3 million to be a safe bet at least? I don't know, that's a big question.

But if that's reasonable maths (decide yourself!!) then they don't need a super hit to be at least okay. The share price being only 1 cent cuts both ways - it only needs to reach 2 cents now to double, etc. Yes, I'm still hoping for a lot more growth than that, but even that would be a worthwhile achievement given the current share price. Just my opinion, obviously. Anyone else have views?

The real problem is working out how long any of this stuff might take, if it happens. All we actually know is that they're predicting a loss this financial year.

26-09-2013, 09:54 AM

Well I guess that kills the SPP - I hope they weren't relying on the money.

emearg

26-09-2013, 05:36 PM

Well I guess that kills the SPP - I hope they weren't relying on the money.

What exactly is that?

Nigel

26-09-2013, 08:50 PM

What exactly is that?

I assume he's referring to the fact that the shareprice has hit 0.9c, with heaps on offer at 1c. The SPP (1c) no longer offers any discount to market price, so many investors will struggle to see any value in taking part (when they may well pick some up at 0.9c on market, with the shareprice still in a down trend). Having NZPR Group onboard is a confidence-booster though - some influential and "well-resourced" people involved. It will be interesting to see if they take up their 'first right of refusal' for the $500,000 of shares that are available to them (expires 30 Sept). If they do, I'd consider buying as it suggests to me that they have some big plans for this company.

26-09-2013, 09:19 PM

What exactly is that?as Nigel says, if you want more shares, buy on market at 0.9c rather than 1c in the share purchase plan

simla

26-09-2013, 09:37 PM

Maybe. First find someone who will sell you $15,000 worth at 0.9 cents? However, the SPP is not "at 1 cent" it is "no more than 1 cent" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481

Nigel

27-09-2013, 06:56 AM

Maybe. First find someone who will sell you $15,000 worth at 0.9 cents? However, the SPP is not "at 1 cent" it is "no more than 1 cent" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481

Well spotted :) What's the likely timing of the SPP?

simla

27-09-2013, 08:37 AM

No idea, of course. But it's "later this year" said that announcement on Aug 30 this year, and last year they announced they would do it on 31 Aug, announced the price on 18 Sep (2.5 weeks later), published a shareholder letter on Oct 1, and issued shares on Oct 25 - total 8 weeks.

So if they want to avoid getting caught up in Xmas, there must be a fair chance they will announce the price shortly, with funds due by end of October maybe? The company could be fairly busy presently on the other hand!

And, yes, NZPR seem to have a lot of confidence here. Be nice to know why. Also be nice to know what will come of the "nutritional formulations plant" - hard to see that you would build that without pretty imminent plans.

27-09-2013, 09:16 AM

However, the SPP is not "at 1 cent" it is "no more than 1 cent" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481One could suspect foul play with little buyers, it wouldn't be hard to push the price down, but the the potential upside only being on $15k max, it doesn't seem worth it.

The new investors came in at 1c so I think it would be unlikely they would want it to go much lower than that.

01-10-2013, 10:42 AM

What? Has the SPP been? - I didn't get any paper work (not that I would have subscribed at the current price)

01-10-2013, 11:24 AM

Yup, and it appears that you have missed out on a great deal. Good thing it never got mailed to you! The way the fundraising has been done it looks like one single, solid buyer has been sucked into buying the shares. Looks like they're feeling a bit lonely now!SPP normally have a max of $15k dont they so they must have sucked a few in.

Nigel

01-10-2013, 11:41 AM

6.5 people if they took the $15K max? Guess smaller people have money to invest as well!

This wasn't the SPP. I think it was part of a wider placement that had been doing (shareholders had approved up to $3m of new shares to be issued at 1c... this is just another $100k installment of that placement... I think they've placed around $2.5mil or so... so not too shabby).

SPP - $15k to normal investors - is on its way. Price will be 1c. As Simla pointed out, you can't buy $15k worth at 1c right now so maybe it's attractive enough to get some takers. I'm half interested in this stock again - mainly on the back of the involvement of the Asian investor group and NZPR.

simla

01-10-2013, 11:47 AM

Think it may be time to throw in the towel...

I hope you have someone cleaning up your towels, Moosie!

Actually the SPP is about to open, it has not closed. Max $15,000 at 1 cent, min $1000, letters sent out 14 Oct, money due Nov 1, alloted Nov 8. Or that's how I read the announcement with the Appendix 7 attachment. https://nzx.com/files/attachments/182685.pdf

Meanwhile, someone seems to have invested another 100k. No mention yet seemingly of whether the other right of refusal https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240833 expired yesterday.

simla

01-10-2013, 11:55 AM

I'm half interested in this stock again

I really don't understand why the market is so down on this stock. Their revenue has certainly stumbled at times, particularly when changing distributor, but there has always been a sense of purpose about the place, and they have definitely made achievements each year.

Blis point blank will not make promises to shareholders. Well, that's not a crime. And their communication does not dwell on pointing out which bits are important, and which bits aren't.

But I just don't understand why NZ shareholders are willing to raise the price of other not-yet-profit's way beyond where Blis when they have just as many unknowns and years of doubt behind them and ahead of them, seemingly simply because Blis doesn't make huge forward projections.

I have continued to buy more BLT every year without fail and have so far never seriously considered failure likely. Sure, I don't know this thing is going to succeed (although the odds seem to be a whole lot better suddenly) but I've never understood why everyone else is so ceaselessly doubting. Obviously the new investors are not rolling in doubt anyway.

(Remember to keep it polite, Moosie!)

simla

01-10-2013, 02:43 PM

And you may well be right, Moosie!

I have this vague memory of someone called Graeme somebody buying a ton of shares in some company called Burns something or other in 1997. He bought them for $2.50 and the following year they were listed as low as 3.5 cents. As I recall, the Australian press had an absolute field day with it, because he was a Kiwi. But some of them probably think now that they should have bought those shares at 3.5 cents.

And for every such story there are probably another 10 ending in disaster. We will see! Stories like that probably depend on whether the management can bring the fish home. This too we will see, but obviously I'm picking they can do it here, and I assume you disagree. 12 months more might settle the question with luck.

ps. To make clear: this is a story of the market marking down a perfectly good company and then congratulating itself for doing so. Markets aren't always right - indeed the market volatility of the last few years surely shows the market being wrong pretty well most of the time for several years. But, hey, only time will tell in this case.

simla

04-10-2013, 01:19 PM

Well, well. Canadean Ingredients are holding a vote for an Inventors Award. John Tagg is one of five nominees, and anyone can vote. Must be before October 7, however.

Explanation here: http://newhope360.com/business/who-deserves-ingredients-insights-award

Vote here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/GPYB5M5

Needless to say, I had no difficulty at all voting for John Tagg. I'm just in total awe that the guy was willing to sit there for decades developing all this stuff for the good of mankind.

Nigel

04-10-2013, 05:00 PM

Question on the SPP... the appendix shows the box for 'non renounceable rights issue' ticked. Does that mean the offer to exisitng shareholders will be pro-rated - eg for every 1 share you own, you have the option to purchase x shares at 1c?? Or will it be like last time, that no matter how many shares you own, you could apply for $15000 worth?

simla

04-10-2013, 05:46 PM

Non-renouncable just means you can't sell it to someone else to use, I believe. The appendix issued said "up to 1,500,000 shares per shareholder", which I make to be $15k. I don't understand it to depend on how many shares you have personally, but that's just my reading. https://nzx.com/files/attachments/182685.pdf

On another front, I was looking at the ODT site and found this old article on the closure of Gourmet, which said "Blis is moving ... to Gourmet's premises in Birch St, where its 12 staff will concentrate on making lozenges, gum, powders and yoghurt". That seems to answer what they are hoping to sell in Asia, if that is correct, since they already make the first three (assuming the Blis version of gum, not the CulturedCare version) Well, they always said that yoghurt was the most promising GRAS product, so looks like maybe we'll find out soonish? In NZ too perhaps? http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/247723/dunedin-ice-cream-company-close

GR8DAY

04-10-2013, 06:57 PM

Nigel

04-10-2013, 09:43 PM

Hi Nigel...have you received your hard=copy SPP already??

Nope. Record date is this coming Friday (11 Oct). Entitlement letters don't go out until 14 Oct. Apply by 1 Nov.

Nigel

07-10-2013, 10:35 AM

Okay, so there's only $7k available on market at 1c. If someone who is not a shareholder wants to buy more than $7k, then they need to buy this week to be eligible for the SPP at 1c, right? Do you think we'll see any new holders joining for that purpose?

I'm excited by the involvement of NZPR and Asia Pacific Partners. Having Sinopharm (China's largest pharmaceutical company) involved is also promising - I watched part of a Chinese TV show (a bit like 'Good Morning' by the looks of it) where there were talking all about Professor Tagg and Blis products. It went for about 15 minutes, I didn't understand too much of it to be fair. But good to see lots of exposure.

Lots of money and expertise has come into the company recently and revenues are increasing. Fasten your seatbelts :)

Nigel

07-10-2013, 04:51 PM

Make that $5k available :)

Nigel

07-10-2013, 05:02 PM

Buying up large in BLT eh Nigel? Those profits won't even shine a light on the XRO shares you bought today though ;)

Instead of buying $5mil of XRO, I could have become majority owner of Blis!

To be honest, I can't see BLT going down any further. Lots of recent investment at 1c and a bit of cash to play with. Revenues are growing and they are making an impact on new markets.

I won't be mortgaging the house to invets in Blis, but I'm considering backing the SPP. Having done a bit of reading recently I'm definitley more upbeat on BLT than I was a few months ago.

Nigel

07-10-2013, 05:11 PM

Very conscious of that - at this stage BLT will remain a minor part of my portfolio. With a string of positive numbers under its belt (any year now, surely!), maybe that could change.

Nigel

09-10-2013, 04:56 PM

No longer anything on offer at 1c. So anyone who wants in on the SPP needs to buy at 1.1c or above. (unless a seller emerges at 1c in the next two days, which is always a possibility).

Nigel

11-10-2013, 10:19 AM

I'm guessing that the sellers at 1.2c are traders wanting to sell then buy back in at 1c in the SPP. Once the SPP is over I'm guessing those sellers will disappear, making for a quick price rise back to 1.5c or more. The valuation a while back suggested 1.1-1.4c was fair for minority holders. With the confidence the new investors are bringing - and the markets they have access to - plus a lot of money in the coffers and talk of profitibility in the foreseeable future, I'd suggest that the price should be a bit more than that!

simla

11-10-2013, 12:20 PM

The subscriptions for the SPP should give us some idea of what shareholders are thinking. After last year's issue they announced that 166 shareholders put in 709k (plus the larger subscribers on top of that, total 1.3m.) If shareholders noticed that little phrase around the AGM, which Blis has never uttered before, " expected to deliver profitable operations in the foreseeable future" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481 then we should see a good uptick in subscriptions here. If that doesn't at least double it, thus resulting in oversubscription, then I think the shareholders either didn't see it or didn't put much weight on it (or ran out of money, of course.)

To me, it all depends on why they are raising so much money: "expected to raise $3.5-$4.5 million " https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481 when in May they talked of "a minimum $1 million" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/236711 The two statements are not incompatible, of course, but it dilutes the shares quite a bit and nobody can force them to go that far.

If they want all that money as working capital for suddenly visible growth, great. If they want it for a big push, then great if that pays off, not so good otherwise. The extra signs are good: big investments from others, building a factory suggesting an existing need, upbeat talk in the reports, various markets seemingly opening to them, etc.

But what we haven't heard is a definitive statement from the company that there really are good things just around the corner. That needn't discourage us, considering the reticence of Blis to beat their own drum. But it does leave us still with that old phrase, we'll see.

I'm hopeful though. A couple of years ago we were pretty hopeful that sales were increasing in US nationwide when in fact the reverse was happening, we just hadn't heard then. Here's my post a year ago on what seemed to have happened, which I concluded "simply very bad luck [and not] reasonable to expect last year to repeat." http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=375051&viewfull=1#post375051 That looks a pretty fair call now, with revenues back to where they were before the reverse (and up slightly) and now lots of potential growth apparently in front of Blis again.

(As support of that, according to the recent appraisal report, p17,p19 https://nzx.com/files/attachments/179674.pdf

Year (k)2010 2011 201220132014 (projected)
Revenue$1888 $1823 $1510$1161$1931
Net Operating Cash Flow$-398 $-688 $-1758$-653
)

But still a case of: We'll see. I'll be in on the issue though.

Obvious disclaimer: I own BLT.

Nigel

11-10-2013, 12:39 PM

But what we haven't heard is a definitive statement from the company that there really are good things just around the corner.

I'm reading a lot into the recent investment by NZPR and Asia Pacific Partners Ltd. When these guys are buying as part of a share placement, they will be privy to discussions, plans and insights that we are not. They have invested a lot of cash into BLT on the basis of those discussions. Along with the new factory and 'formulations' they are mentioning, plus the progress in China and Japan, I'm taking a lot of confidence from the actions of key investors stumping up with cash.

simla

11-10-2013, 01:12 PM

Yep, that's how I'm looking at things.

Nigel

13-10-2013, 08:05 PM

I was re-reading the announcement of 30 August and had a horrible moment where I thought I'd possibly got it wrong about the caliber of one of our new investors. I noticed that instead of "Asia Pacific Partners" (Jenny Shipley - former Prime Minister of NZ; Abdulrahman Al Ghurair - Chairman of Dubai Chamber of Commerce, Dubai Executive Council; Adriana Tong - investment banker with connections in nutraceuticals and beverage industries; Peter Baker - expertise in FMCG, turnaround projects) the announcement mentioned "ASIAN Pacific Partners" (no familiar names, in fact one director who has been involved with about a dozen struck off companies). Thankfully there's another mention in the same announcement of "Asia Pacific Partners" and the SSH notices are for the majority shareholder of "Asia Pacific Partners Ltd" not the slightly less exciting alternative.
I really am excited and optimistic about what these new connections can lead to for Blis.

simla

14-10-2013, 04:41 PM

Details of SPP out. Mostly repeat of the texts we've already seen as far as I can tell, but still sounding okay to me. Just my opinion, of course. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/242333

In the event of oversubscription, they appear to be able to set a minimum issue and then pro-rata applications above that. 2.8 (b) https://nzx.com/files/attachments/183301.pdf

And there's those phrases again: "expected to deliver profits in the foreseeable future". But also "produce and market milk based formulations mainly for Asian markets", and "nutritional formulations will include beverages". Well, that could be yoghurt? It could be yoghurt slushies? Or it could even be chocolate milk etc? Intiguing to find out eventually.

Nigel

14-10-2013, 05:01 PM

I think they will be developing a milk drink similar to Yakult (http://www.yakult.co.uk/about-yakult). Yakult drinks seem to be the most popular way to consume probiotics in Europe (and Asia as I understand it) so a Blis variation would arguably be an easier sell than gum, lozenges etc. Yakult is massive - available in 31 countries and employees 80,000 staff, with a market cap of over $10billion - so getting to even 1% of that size would be a ten-fold return.

simla

14-10-2013, 05:38 PM

My calculator is struggling with the profit figures for that. Pity about it taking 50 years to build that market size!

15-10-2013, 01:43 PM

I think they will be developing a milk drink similar to Yakult (http://www.yakult.co.uk/about-yakult).That would be the obvious move - seems more natural to drink yogurt to ward of a cold than to eat ice cream.

Key dates for the SPP offer include:
Record Date to determine entitlements: 11 October 2013
Closing date for application of shares: 1 November 2013
Last Date for issue of shares: Not later than 8 November 2013

simla

15-10-2013, 01:49 PM

By the way, to address the other topic that arises here from time to time, I also think BLT offers a perfectly respectable return. I know there are some who love the excitement of making a 100% return in two weeks, and I totally understand that. But I personally don't see that as a viable plan for a 50 year investment horizon, as it requires never being invested in anything that is not achieving that - including cash in the bank while waiting, which would be a disaster. I know I'm not that smart or that lucky. I'm pretty sure that Warren Buffett says that 15% pa is about as good as it gets long term, and I would be surprised if many actually-rich people said otherwise. Anyone who is getting a lot more than that should certainly let the funds know of the employment availability!

A compounding 15%pa return on the other hand only requires a doubling every 5 years. BLT will either comfortably achieve that or it will go broke. I'm not expecting the latter now. Just my opinion obviously.

Nigel

15-10-2013, 02:30 PM

That would be the obvious move - seems more natural to drink yogurt to ward of a cold than to eat ice cream.

And BLT have a great point of difference, being the world's first probiotic for the mouth and oral cavity (incl dental)... instead of traditional probiotics such as those in Yakult which target the gut. The science is great. The regulatory approvals have taken a long time but we're now there. The missing ingredient so to speak has been marketing cut-through in global markets. Real progress is now happening (coinciding with the new investors, who are bringing significant business acumen, global networks and marketing nouse to the table) as we increase sales in Asia. I really think the plane is finally getting ready for take-off :)

Simla, you've mentioned a long-term horizon with this stock. I think in the long-term we'll be very happy with the outcomes - $10k will become $1m if we get to even 10% the size of Yakult!! And of course for those wanting a speculative play in search of a quick 50-100% return, BLT isn't a bad place to be either!

Chippie

15-10-2013, 07:53 PM

I still believe in the BLT story and have plenty of shares to back it up.

Not sure if I will purchase any more at the moment, but think it has more chance of success now than it did 5 years ago.

Based on risk and reqard I would rather put $1K into BLT at 1 cent than $10K into the current Power company IPO's.

Keep the posts coming, I do like to read them all.

simla

15-10-2013, 08:33 PM

Great, Chippie. You and I seem to share having been in this for some time, as well as appreciating that the long haul can still pay off mathematically, and being willing to lend a hand for a worthwhile endeavour. Good thing the Blis management are happy to take the same attitude!

pierre

22-10-2013, 05:51 PM

Now that PEB (also a spin-off from Otago Uni) is going like a rocket on the NZX I wonder if we could interest David Darling in also taking BLT under his wing.

A bit of his magic dust sprinkled over Blis is just what this company needs to finally get some traction in the market.

Wishful thinking I guess ....(sigh)!

Nigel

24-10-2013, 12:33 PM

Now that PEB (also a spin-off from Otago Uni) is going like a rocket on the NZX I wonder if we could interest David Darling in also taking BLT under his wing.

There's certainly been increased turnover over the past few days. Maybe something is brewing? (some new formulations perhaps)

24-10-2013, 12:39 PM

There's certainly been increased turnover over the past few days. Maybe something is brewing? (some new formulations perhaps)There have been a few sales at 1.2c. Weird that they didn't come before the SPP so that you could top up at 1c.

I just sold a few today and now need to decide how many I want to buy back.

Given the price isn't significantly above 1c, I think only long term holders will be buying into the SPP, not those looking to make a quick buck as it could easily drop back down to 1c or even 0.9c. Thoughts?

GR8DAY

24-10-2013, 12:46 PM

...hi CJ. I for one will be taking up my full entitlement (1.5m=$15k). I only see upside with Bliss and at 1c they are ridiculously under-priced in my opinion.

pierre

27-10-2013, 04:53 PM

I'm posting my cheque for $15k today to purchase another 1.5 million shares - I see only positive news to come over the next 12 months from BLT.

The company is raising up to $4.5million - more than any recent capital raising - and that indicates to me that they finally have a plan and will have the $$$ to commercialise K12 and M18.

I'm buoyed by the fact that Edinburgh Nominees are putting in more capital, plus BLT now has two new trade investors in APPL and NZPR Group who can help in the sales arena.

On the revenue front, sales for the first four months of this year equate to 48% of the total revenue for the 2013 year. Sales are still only at a low level but at least they're going the right way on the graph.

New products are being developed for Asian and European markets, including an animal health product for Japan. Pharmacy and web sales in NZ are also showing strong growth. Sinopharm, the largest pharmaceutical company in China, has been appointed to market BLT oral health products in China. All positive steps.

The company says successful implementation of its business strategies are expected to deliver profits in the foreseeable future.

I think the indicators are that we could well see a slow but steady upward trend in the SP over the next year unless a major announcement is made, then a decent spike is possible, though nothing like a PEB at this stage!

DISC: Hold several million BLT @ 1.37c average.

Nigel

27-10-2013, 05:10 PM

I think the indicators are that we could well see a slow but steady upward trend in the SP over the next year unless a major announcement is made, then a decent spike is possible, though nothing like a PEB at this stage!

With BLT, I think there's always the possibility of a sharp spike. We've said it for years, but there is massive potential with this thing. The team have been eagerly soldiering away with the science, product development and regulatory approvals for years. With the new partners on board, I really do think we're at the cusp of the market penetration, sales growth and corresponding share-price re-rating that we've been patiently waiting for. Prices at around only $10m (and approx 1.2cps) it won't take much good news to send the price up.

We've all seen with PEB how a company can work away for years with a low share-price, then all of a sudden a couple of deals are signed and the share-price goes into the stratosphere. Granted, different companies with different prospects, but who knows where we'll end up. Profitability "in the foreseeable future" and quite impressive revenue growth forecasts in the recent Simmons appraisal document.

Disc: hold BLT and PEB, and supporting both SPP/rights issues.

29-10-2013, 09:56 AM

Strategically timed announcement with the SPP closing this Friday??

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/242953

Disc: hold a small amount and figuring out if/how much to top up.

Nigel

29-10-2013, 10:25 AM

Strategically timed announcement with the SPP closing this Friday??

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/242953

Disc: hold a small amount and figuring out if/how much to top up.

Bid outweighing offer for the first time in months. Momentum shift alert :)

29-10-2013, 10:45 AM

Bid outweighing offer for the first time in months. Momentum shift alert :)The Bid is now at 1.4c.

Was the announcement that good?

Buyers now cant take part in the SPP so that isn't it.

silverblizzard888

29-10-2013, 10:48 AM

Must be the PEB hype going around where everyone wants to get in quick before it does do a last minute ditch and spirals.

29-10-2013, 10:48 AM

The Bid is now at 1.4c.1.8c!!

I sold some at 1.2 last week - looks like I got out to early!

The buy decision for the SPP has been made, just need to decide on how many.

Nigel

29-10-2013, 10:49 AM

Sorry, did I say 'outweighing'? I meant 'overwhelming'. The offers at 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 and 1.8 have all been taken out! Someone wants a piece of this! Maybe profits coming out of PEB finding a new home?

silverblizzard888

29-10-2013, 10:51 AM

I see theres the condition SP in the depth section, what does that mean?

Toasty

29-10-2013, 11:10 AM

I see theres the condition SP in the depth section, what does that mean?

Its an off market transfer

Nigel

29-10-2013, 11:13 AM

Its an off market transfer

ASB doesn't show me th edetails of the off-market transfer... can you share any details? (size of trade etc)

Nigel

29-10-2013, 11:14 AM

The Sinopharm visit next month will be huge. If we can win them over then the world (well, China at least) is our oyster.

Toasty

29-10-2013, 11:15 AM

ASB doesn't show me th edetails of the off-market transfer... can you share any details? (size of trade etc)

Looks like 62,888 shares at 1.3 cents. 1 trade only at 10:35

silverblizzard888

29-10-2013, 11:18 AM

What does off market transfer mean? That is was from overseas?

GR8DAY

29-10-2013, 11:22 AM

........as I said, well UNDERPRICED..........back to 3.5c???

Nigel

29-10-2013, 11:26 AM

Not a bad run starting here :) Will the increase prompt more media exposure?

pierre

29-10-2013, 11:27 AM

I'm posting my cheque for $15k today to purchase another 1.5 million shares - I see only positive news to come over the next 12 months from BLT.

I think the indicators are that we could well see a slow but steady upward trend in the SP over the next year unless a major announcement is made, then a decent spike is possible, though nothing like a PEB at this stage!

.

Wasn't expecting a move quite so soon - not complaining though.

Danzx

29-10-2013, 11:32 AM

Wasn't expecting a move quite so soon - not complaining though.

Excuse my lack of reader arch but when does this offer close?

Danzx

29-10-2013, 11:33 AM

Auto correct fail: research

pierre

29-10-2013, 11:36 AM

Cheque has to be at Link Market Services by 1 November.

simla

29-10-2013, 11:38 AM

Fastpost, anyone?

29-10-2013, 11:42 AM

Cheque has to be at Link Market Services by 1 November.I assume it can be direct deposit?

pierre

29-10-2013, 11:44 AM

Be safer to fly down and take it personally than rely on NZ Post - fastpost or otherwise.

Buying 1.5m shares at 1c with the current SP at 2c is certainly worth the airfare!

GR8DAY

29-10-2013, 11:45 AM

.......think I'll fly mine down just to make sure!!! (LOL)

29-10-2013, 11:49 AM

Be safer to fly down and take it personally than rely on NZ Post - fastpost or otherwise.

Buying 1.5m shares at 1c with the current SP at 2c is certainly worth the airfare!Depends, that ramp up is on low volume so could/will come crashing down once some people try to dump their SPP allocation.

pierre

29-10-2013, 11:54 AM

Depends, that ramp up is on low volume so could/will come crashing down once some people try to dump their SPP allocation.

3.6m traded so far - highest daily volume for months. I'm not selling - have been a faithful holder and accumulator since 2005 and happy to wait for the BIG things yet to come.

GR8DAY

29-10-2013, 11:54 AM

.......no ramp-up CJ, more of an overdue re-rating I believe based on some positives that have been building for a while now.

simla

29-10-2013, 11:55 AM

Plus the last annual report had 1143 shareholders (p48). The SPP is only $1.5m max, which is only $1.3k per shareholder. You have to think the takeup may pick up this week, so how many shares will people actually get? Sure will be interesting to see. Then how many will people be wanting to sell?

29-10-2013, 12:05 PM

3.6m traded so far - highest daily volume for months. I'm not selling - have been a faithful holder and accumulator since 2005 and happy to wait for the BIG things yet to come.$3.6m but that is only about $50k or about 4 people deciding to buy the max in the SPP to dump.

Just pointing out the possibility.

Disc: hold and deciding how many to get in the SPP.

29-10-2013, 12:15 PM

just a reminder to those getting excited. do we all remember the January/February pump and dump?

history repeats, repeats, repeats, repeats, repeats...yes - hence my concern no one has actual given their interpretation of the announcement. any news = good news???

Nigel

29-10-2013, 12:21 PM

I think the new factory signals the start of new products/formulations and a fresh push into new (mostly Asian) markets. The announcement mentioned new investors (I'm assuming NZPR, APPL, maybe more?) who have global connections/networks that we can leverage. The announcement also mentioned Sinopharm's visit next month. Sinopharm is China's biggest marketer of pharmaceutical products and they are Blis' new distributor in China. There is massive potential here.
(not financial advice, still big risks associated with this when today's increase has been on light turnover, DYOR etc)

simla

29-10-2013, 12:29 PM

Yes, possibly pump and dump. But that does require a base of good news to build on for credibility, and the "risk" this time must be that the "dumping" would be a mistake? Blis really are starting to look promising?

It's uncertain how imminent any of this is, of course. But surely you build a factory when you have a known use for it? And the new shareholders must be expecting a return in the short term, we might think? Also, Blis appear to have just announced that they now have a working factory producing GRAS product. That is surely a huge step forward - both technically and business-wise?

I remain wary, but I'm inclined to agree with Gr8day.

simla

29-10-2013, 12:40 PM

I see the lunchtime crowd are busy profit-taking. I wonder how many of them are doing it in anticipation of getting a full allocation under the SPP, since the alternative is to be selling down/selling out which seems strange timing after that announcement if so?

simla

29-10-2013, 02:52 PM

There isn't strong price pressure, but there is continuing buying pressure. A simple explanation is simply that someone decided to buy a heap of shares. 6m shares have changed hands so far today at an average 1.5 cents. Over half a percent of the company in less than one day at a premium of just 0.4 cents per share? If that's the explanation, someone is probably pretty pleased with themselves? Just a possibility.

In the immediate term, we have news next week of the size of the SPP, and the half year report in the next few weeks. Plus surely we hear that they get to export from the factory after a bit? The factory could be seen as a result of the ice cream sales. The ice cream sold really well, but they needed to spend money on plant to make it profitable. Well, they just DID spend money on plant for a related product, so maybe the "proof of concept" was not just for customers but themselves? If so, then the small loss on the ice cream sales may be a great investment for shareholders?

More news would be good.

GR8DAY

29-10-2013, 03:14 PM

.....hey thanks for all your solidly researched info' SIMLA, I do believe we are seeing the beginnings of a long-overdue turnaround in this innovative company. Ive always maintained that any "world-first" company (like Blis) will one day be a takeover target and I can see this happening here with such a depressed SP (even at todays 1.5/1.8c).......just a matter of time in my opinion.

winner69

29-10-2013, 03:22 PM

11cents and you have a ten bagger!!!!!!

blobbles

29-10-2013, 03:44 PM

11cents and you have a ten bagger!!!!!!

If only! If they become amazingly successful at the tiny price of $1 you would have a 100 bagger! We can only dream!

simla

29-10-2013, 04:25 PM

Ive always maintained that any "world-first" company (like Blis) will one day be a takeover target
Yes, but did you see Mr Gaynor's column a few weeks back about the welcome development of some NZ Boards learning to say 'no' to takeover offers. I've never understood why Boards would encourage shareholders to sell like that anyway, so I hope he's right. I'm in this for the long term revenue myself, and I am mildly hopeful that NZ will hang on to this company, at least in large part. After all, NZers generally just sell out because the sight of the cash is just too much for them, but maybe Kiwisaver is the beginning of the end of that.

simla

29-10-2013, 04:40 PM

An interesting additional question therefore is what the funds think of Blis. They are presumably aware of it, or many of them anyway. If they think the news is starting to get good and that maybe the market is starting to notice that, I wonder what they would do? The obvious thing would be to be in on the issue, which may have happened, but I doubt many were taking that much notice at that point. But the company is still open to placements of $670k, with $2.33m of $3m issued, according to the 14 Oct announcement. If the funds join in, of course, we might finally see some regular liquidity. A lot of ifs!

29-10-2013, 04:47 PM

blobbles

29-10-2013, 04:50 PM

Yes, but did you see Mr Gaynor's column a few weeks back about the welcome development of some NZ Boards learning to say 'no' to takeover offers. I've never understood why Boards would encourage shareholders to sell like that anyway, so I hope he's right. I'm in this for the long term revenue myself, and I am mildly hopeful that NZ will hang on to this company, at least in large part. After all, NZers generally just sell out because the sight of the cash is just too much for them, but maybe Kiwisaver is the beginning of the end of that.

I damn well hope investors are learning to say no to takeover offers as well. I am also in Blis for the long term and will think about putting more money in when I have enough in my "high risk" bank account...

GR8DAY

29-10-2013, 05:12 PM

blobbles

29-10-2013, 05:32 PM

....AGREE Simla and Bobbles, BUT I really dont think there is much we could do about it IF/When it happens. As Blis becomes more global (as is happening), you can bet your bottom dollar it will be eventually "noticed" by a multi-national in the food additive industry. What a marketing coup that cud be for them (the large multi-national) to be able to state categorically that their product(s) now include, as A WORLD FIRST, a natural oral pro-biotic shown to prevent........... and improve.........etc

Lets hope the SP just continues to improve slowly now as more positive news filters through........this may just prevent this clever KIWI co. from going off-shore.

LONGTERM HOLDER/ACCUMULATOR.

It may not seem like we can do much about it personally, but it doesn't hurt instilling local investors with a sense of national pride based on kiwi ingenuity and making them realise that when buyouts occur it sends both valuable jobs and IP directly into the coffers of huge overseas interests. I tend to find kiwi companies operate a LOT more ethically as well compared to big overseas firms, which I heartily support.

Accepting buyouts for profit may put more money in your bank account but it sure doesn't help your fellow NZer, your country in general, the future hopes of coming generations or the earth become a nicer place. Some buyouts put a positive in your bank, but add a negative to your NZ support/ethics bank.

29-10-2013, 05:58 PM

A product like this would be worth far more to the likes of Nestle than it ever would be as a stand alone company.

neopoleII

29-10-2013, 07:38 PM

""(like Blis) will one day be a takeover target""
this co has been taken over already........ look at who owns most of the shares.
then read the last several disclosures of doom and gloom and delisting yada yada...... over the past year or so......
and now....... certain folks who own most of the co, and have board seats and the new news is full on positive and professional.
NOW its time to bring in the new punters and make a BILLION.
just go back and read the company releases of the last couple of years and you will see that the co has been taken over.
no wonder most kiwis dont invest in the NZ share market.
at least the price is going up and I might get my initial investment back.....
this is going to be a good traders stock for a little while.
too bad others got zhat on.......

just my opinion of over a decade of being a shareholder of this co.
good luck to those that bought in at 1 cent...... you should do very well.

emearg

29-10-2013, 08:36 PM

I'm in....

simla

29-10-2013, 08:46 PM

Yeah, that's hard to really judge fairly. In any investment, the ones who put the money in early will be strongly discounted if it takes several more issues to get off the ground - the alternative being to ask later investors to take a bath on the way in, which is hardly going to attract more investment. And those who have put money in later have still had to come up with good money. I've participated in every Blis issue for several years now, to at least some degree, and I have accordingly taken a hit on the early investments and hope that this last one will fair better. But I can promise you I have sweated hard over each decision and each dollar that that involved. Just because I've put money in doesn't mean I've taken it out of a lolly jar of free money! We've all taken our chances on a start up.

Nil desperandum, as I've said before. You never know what is around the corner. The question now is how much return we will finally get (assuming still that that happens). I recall you saying you've still averaged down over time but are north of the current share price though. Who knows where things will end. Xero is selling at around $30 while making a loss. PEB is selling well over a dollar, and making a loss. Who can make sense of any of it? We'll probably have a much better idea of where this is going in about a year. That's my guess, anyway.

simla

29-10-2013, 08:47 PM

I'm in....
My goodness! The silent one returns. AND with approval! Any other comments, Emearg? Glad to hear you're in.

Nigel

30-10-2013, 08:15 AM

My goodness! The silent one returns. AND with approval! Any other comments, Emearg? Glad to hear you're in.

Welcome back emearg :)

Looking forward to today. A bit if a re-rating yesterday; maybe more of the same today?

Leftfield

30-10-2013, 08:57 AM

I'm in too (Disc; long term holder at an av SP of 1c) , and hopeful the BLT effect will help propel me to further heights in the stock picking comp!! :)

Nigel

30-10-2013, 09:05 AM

I forgot about the share comp momentarily - yeah, this will help :) anyone got XRO, PEB and BLT in the comp?

Nigel

30-10-2013, 09:25 AM

I forgot about the share comp momentarily - yeah, this will help :) anyone got XRO, PEB and BLT in the comp?

Leftfield, I see you do. Friday's rankings should be interesting if the BLT charge continues!

Nigel

30-10-2013, 10:30 AM

Just looking at yesterday's volume... is that a record for number of shares traded in a day?? (certainly stands out on the 5 year chart!). Increasing price on increasing volume. Good to see :)

Danzx

30-10-2013, 12:57 PM

Question for you all:

I hold 200,000 shares in BLT and brought around the 3c mark quite a few years back. I have financial commitments and am not willing to take up the SPP with the intention of holding (unfortunately).
I am going ahead with the SPP with an order of $5,000/ 500,000 worth. Would I be wise to be conservative and sell my current holdings at today's prices ( approx 1.5-1.7) to guarantee a return on at least some of my 'new' 1c holdings before I receive the. In a few days.
I am aware that this offer may be oversubscribed.

thank you as always for your sound advice and opinions

30-10-2013, 01:31 PM

I am aware that this offer may be oversubscribed.I think this is the key. You could sell now to lock in the gain as the risk is people will sell down, putting pressure on the price, once they know what they have been allocated.

But you risk only getting a small amount you applied for so your holding might not be worthwhile.

Disc: I foolishly sold down at 1.2c and have now applied for twice what I want in the hope that scaling is no more than 50%.

Nigel

30-10-2013, 10:34 PM

Here's the write-up from The Headliner yesterday. All info straight from the media release, but thought I'd share for those who are interested.

http://www.headliner.co.nz/news/13320.html

Good to see the price hold up today (VWAP 0.017). Looking forward to the next sales announcement. From the guidance at the AGM we should have some pretty healthy updates coming out which will help shareholder confidence and bolster the shareprice. Any positive comment from Sinopharm next month will also spark some more price action, given the size of the market they have access to.

pierre

31-10-2013, 11:16 AM

Looks like a stand-off this morning. Roughly equal number of buyers at 1.6 and sellers at 1.7. Wonder who's going to blink first!

Nigel

31-10-2013, 11:41 AM

Looks like a stand-off this morning. Roughly equal number of buyers at 1.6 and sellers at 1.7. Wonder who's going to blink first!

Someone who wanted to sell then buy back in the SPP by the looks of it. I hope they've got their payment off in time - it would be tragic to sell now and not be able to buy back!!

Bring on another market update!

31-10-2013, 12:03 PM

it would be tragic to sell now and not be able to buy back!!Or to be scaled back and not be able to get all they want.

It does show the risk if you want to sell your SPP shares. To sell a reasonable amount, they had to drop the shareprice over 10%!

GR8DAY

31-10-2013, 12:17 PM

.....I guess that was always on the cards. Anyway this stock is going to do well medium/longterm in my opinion.

simla

31-10-2013, 12:17 PM

Yes, people may dump some of their SPP shares for a quick profit in a week or so (or indeed now). But don't forget the opposite may also happen: people who missed out in the case of an over-subscribed SPP may be wanting to buy in what they didn't get.

Too, if there is over-subscription (and who knows?) then the company seems likely to me to put in a minimum allocation and then scale back requests over that amount (just a guess, of course, but allowed in the terms 2.8(b).) If so, people who have gone for the maximum will miss out more than those who came in at lower levels. Would such people more likely be those wanting to sell at a profit, or those trying to build their holding? Who knows? All very exquisite to double guess what people are doing here!

simla

01-11-2013, 11:28 AM

Did someone just buy about 1% of the company on the open market at almost no premium by cleverly timing it for when people would be feeling pretty relaxed about selling ie. when the SPP issue was completing?

A premium of 0.4 cents is chickenfeed. According to my (rough) calculations, BLT would have to make an additional 200k profit to justify that at a PE of 20, or considerably less given the high-PE phase BLT will probably go through if/when it announces a profit (ATM has a PE of 103 at present.)

Anyone else have any guesses on why so many shares changed hands this week?

01-11-2013, 11:37 AM

I must admit, the liquidity this week has been reasonable - maybe they should do SPP more often. The issue with an illiquid stock is no big boys can enter as they move the price to much.

aquaman

01-11-2013, 04:44 PM

Does anyone know when we find out what shares we have been allocated through the SPP

pierre

01-11-2013, 04:59 PM

Does anyone know when we find out what shares we have been allocated through the SPP

From the Ts & Cs of the Offer document:

"6. TIMETABLE
6.1 The key dates for the SPP are:
Record Date 11 October 2013
Offer opens 15 October 2013
Last day for receipt of Application
Forms (5.00pm)
1 November 2013
Allotment date for shares under
entitlement offer (last date)
8 November 2013"

Nigel

06-11-2013, 01:56 PM

Resistance at 0.017 slowly eroding. May see that disappear in next day or so.
Could be some volatility though once shares from SPP are allocated. I'm hoping people hang on to all of their allocation and let the price climb continue!

clip

06-11-2013, 02:08 PM

Sold out a little under half of mine for approx 35% profit, will buy back in if it drops to .010 - 0.012. otherwise will be using that for other things. discl: only bought a small amount to start with approx $1200 worth

simla

06-11-2013, 02:50 PM

It's fairly muted trading on Blis, yet the maths is quite interesting. There are presently bids to buy about 5 million shares at 1 cent or above, and to sell about 2.5 million at 3 cents or less, with about 1.5 million of those clustered around the current price.

Sounds fine ... until you consider that the SPP is for 150 million shares, so the potential number of shares people want to buy or sell after the allocation could yet be interesting.

gloworm

07-11-2013, 11:28 AM

We should be getting confirmation of the SPP today, as the details provided mention that the issue of the new shares need to be "not later than the 8th November 2013".

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183300.pdf

Either that or my mail man has already been fired by NZ Post.

07-11-2013, 11:37 AM

We should be getting confirmation of the SPP today, as the details provided mention that the issue of the new shares need to be "not later than the 8th November 2013".

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183300.pdfWill be interesting to see the amount of scaling if any. Maybe an announcement after COB today with the letter to arrive once the posties get around to it?

clip

07-11-2013, 11:42 AM

if the SPP shares are being released at 1c (missed out on this) would you expect that will have a dilutionary effect on the current ones, e.g. a drop from 0.016-0.017?

simla

07-11-2013, 12:01 PM

Ah, if we knew that! If shareholders think things are looking up, there is no reason why the price shouldn't be going up. With issued shares of around a billion (!), a million dollar profit is 0.1 cents profit per share. Thus, by my maths anyway, the BLT share price is running at about 2 cents per million profit, with a PE of 20 being a growth company at that point. The current price therefore assumes a profit of less than a million, if you agree with that maths, which hardly seems over-priced?

On the other hand, if nobody really believes things are looking up then down remains a possibility too. There is a half year report due in the next couple of weeks or so with news that may or may not help shareholders judge.

On top of which is whether people will square out the result of the SPP. Will people be dumping shares that they only bought for short term profit? Or will people be buying shares they couldn't get in the SPP? Don't know.

Personally I'm not expecting an announcement until tomorrow afternoon (Nov 8), as that is about the time they announced for last years' issue.

clip

07-11-2013, 12:32 PM

Thanks for the explanation. I did a little reading on how SPP's may affect SP but not totally clear. All helps slowly building my knowledge :)

Nigel

07-11-2013, 10:36 PM

I have joined the BLT crew here with my purchase of a small parcel @ 1.5 a few day ago. :cool:

Welcome aboard Yankiwi :) I really think Blis can be another great NZ success story. A few final pieces of the puzzle just need to fall into place.

simla

08-11-2013, 09:15 AM

Danzx

08-11-2013, 09:17 AM

So Blis raises about $1.4m out of $1.5m offered. About double last year, but not overwhelming. Shareholders either didn't see the words "profit in foreseeable future", thought not much of it, or had no money. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/243522

Now we find out if people just bought so they could sell. Neither under-subscription nor over-subscription it seems. I didn't consider that outcome.

Another day of little or no "work" achieved!! (screen refresh,screen refresh,screen refresh,screen refresh,screen refresh,screen refresh,)
Gosh sad to say it i expect a share dump day.

Disc: Long term holder not wanting to be part of the 1c dump today

simla

08-11-2013, 09:17 AM

With fund raising done, and good news seeming to accumulate, presumably we'll see a consolidation of shares in a bit too?

simla

08-11-2013, 09:22 AM

Gosh sad to say it i expect a share dump day.
For those looking for a quick profit? With a half year report due in the next 2 or 3 weeks, I'm not sure it would be that clever to sell today if so? I suppose the report could carry bad news, or maybe any good news will have been anticipated, but I'd have thought hanging on was a logical choice? Just me, of course.

simla

08-11-2013, 09:25 AM

Plus, to make the obvious point, they just got double the shareholder support of last year, and have cashed up very nicely into a situation that they seem to feel is looking fairly promising. Xero did that and everyone bought, not sold. But no judging the logic of the NZ market!!

Danzx

08-11-2013, 09:28 AM

For those looking for a quick profit? With a half year report due in the next 2 or 3 weeks, I'm not sure it would be that clever to sell today if so? I suppose the report could carry bad news, or maybe any good news will have been anticipated, but I'd have thought hanging on was a logical choice? Just me, of course.

My thoughts exactly, it seems sometimes these BLT shares jump around against what i predict would happen after reports & announcements.

Question, does anyone have the new allotment this morning? Link seem to think they will show up between 11:00am-2:00pm

simla

08-11-2013, 09:30 AM

Yes, mine have shown up on Link now that you ask.

Danzx

08-11-2013, 09:56 AM

Mine showing on Link, not on ANZ.

Im happy with the match price of 1.6. Possible HOLD attitude towards the new allotment OR people don't have the allocation to trade yet lol

4994

simla

08-11-2013, 10:58 AM

On reflection, I'm pretty happy with that news. It is consistent with ongoing good news coming out of the company these days. 900k shares have gone through at 1.4 and 1.5, but that seems to have dried up, and there were willing buyers for them all. If those were SPP shares, they represented just $9k of the SPP.

There might be more weakness yet, but Blis is looking a much more resilient share these days. A bit of good news as well and we might see a whole new attitude from the market. Just my views, naturally.

Danzx

08-11-2013, 11:16 AM

Yes a drop as i thought may happen. Those that 'traded' the SPP have done well but the long term holders also hold up fine.

pierre

08-11-2013, 12:34 PM

Only 3.2 million shares traded so far - and none of them were the 1.5 million units I purchased in the SPP. I was very pleased that my total order was fulfilled and delighted that BLT almost made its cash raising target, missing by only a small margin ($109k).

My average holding cost is now 1.379 so nicely positioned for the upside.

If the price holds at 1.4 or better for the next week I'll be happy. I don't think there's too much downside risk, though there might still be a few more traders wanting to take a profit in the coming week.

With cash in the bank, new trade shareholders, plenty of plans for new marketing activity and the half-year announcement coming soon (probably next Friday) I think that mid-long term holders of BLT can anticipate a gradual lift in the SP - unless there's a major announcement and then a spike is highly likely.

Might be a year or two before we see significant profits - but as the company says - they'll be there in the foreseeable future.

simla

08-11-2013, 03:08 PM

Still less than 4 million shares changed hands today, despite the issue of 140 million new shares. It looks like shareholders are standing firm behind the company. The company has been working like crazy for the last few years, and not least the last couple of years as things went sideways, and they must be pleased to see the shareholders standing by them.

We'll see what happens next week, but BLT is looking a bit more resilient now than it has been. Dare we think there is a sense of mementum building here?

winner69

08-11-2013, 03:11 PM

simla

08-11-2013, 03:20 PM

Heck, yeah!

A. The shareholders have put up $1.4m in the face of a difficult couple of years. And they're aren't seemingly selling down for a quick profit.

B. Yes, I do think the company is totally interested in its shareholders. Feathers got ruffled in the conversion, but that wasn't the company's doing. Further, the company now has several cornerstone shareholders, which has been accomodated by existing parties.

This company has needed its shareholders - you plain need money. The previous release even said, "He says fortunately the company has a sophisticated shareholder base that understands what is required in order to get market access." When was the last time you heard a company thank it's shareholders spontaneously?

simla

08-11-2013, 04:09 PM

I would add that this company has slogged away for years putting together this very large plan. I really do believe they are doing it for civic-minded reasons, although pretty obviously everyone also hopes to make a profit. I also feel it's pretty clear there is a nucleus of shareholders who are standing behind it with the same intent. I think the shareholders and the company officers are aware of each other's intentions, although obviously a loose collection of random people will have a range of motivations and views. I form these opinions by reading an awful lot of stuff over several years.

Once things get off the ground, I dare say the usual commercial imperatives will start driving this company as any other. But for the present I remain very impressed that people are prepared to pitch in until this thing is done.

I also feel people don't appreciate just how different these products are. Colds are a rarity in my household where they used to be common. And the dentist is always raving about my mouth - "if only everyone came in here like this". When the antibiotics run out - and they will soon - people will be very glad that this sort of thing exists. Much of the probiotic industry is so much pixel dust, but Blis is most assuredly not in that group. I think this view is present in the mind of the good folks of Dunedin, next to the very university where it was developed, and in the mind of many shareholders.

simla

08-11-2013, 05:25 PM

Well, there it is - less than 4 million shares changed hands today despite 140 million new shares being issued today, and with only a small decrease in price. Meanwhile, shareholders subscribed almost the asked for $1.5m despite a difficult couple of years.

To me, that suggests: (a) this company will be backed by shareholders until it succeeds (failing black swan events, of course); (b) There is now some strength in support of the share price; and so (c) any good news is likely to be reflected in the share price from here on in (maybe!).

If I correctly judge the tone of the company's statements, there shouldn't be another issue after this - because they see profit ahead, and they have quite a bit of cash now. If so, buyers of this share will actually have to start bidding for it from here on in. No more lazily waiting for yet another issue at a cheap price? Let's hope so, anyway.

Nigel

08-11-2013, 05:55 PM

When's the Sinopharm visit - this month, right? That relationship is a massive opportunity. Fingers crossed the visit exceeds expectations.

pierre

08-11-2013, 06:08 PM

What we need now Simla, is a positive half-year announcement from BLT at the end of next week which includes a more definite forecast of impending profitability. Words more specific than "the foreseeable future" will be incredibly helpful to the SP.

That, and news of traction in a few markets, particularly in China, will finally convince the market that BLT is making progress in commercialising its IP. With a population over 4 times that of the USA, China has to have huge market potential for Blis technologies. The trick of course, is to find a way to achieve cost-effective distribution into that population but the company is already working with a partner on that issue.

Like you, I've continued to back BLT and I expect to see the share as a 10 bagger within 3-5 years. Maybe it wont ever reach the same stratosphere as PEB but a creep in SP from 1.5c to 10 or 15 cents over that time doesn't seem impossible. Announcement of a major deal in China could see it spike sooner.

I don't know if BLT does have enough cash in the bank to really achieve their goals. However, when they're making money and need more capital to continue their expansion then I'm sure there will be plenty of current (and new) investors willing to continue to support the company.

It would be great to see the capitalisation reaching something over $100 million, accompanied by a share consolidation to bring BLT out of the penny dreadful department.

The half-year announcement due shortly will tell us whether BLT stands for a company with a future or just a sandwich you can get at almost any café.

simla

08-11-2013, 08:50 PM

blobbles

08-11-2013, 09:51 PM

Yes, it seems fairly likely that Blis is going somewhere now. But we don't have enough info yet on where or when. Progress in China would be good, but hardly an overnight project I'd have thought - a very big place. A general uptick in multiple markets would still produce pretty good news.

I don't know why everyone assumes BLT is less than P EB. They both, and like X RO, have viable products but need to gain enough market acceptance. I'd have said Blis was ahead of the others on the path to profitability personally, but time will tell what their ultimate potentials are, of course. On the other hand, BLT (1.5 cents, 1000m shares) only seems to need less than 0.1 cents per share profit for the current share price at PE 20, or $0.7m pa; P EB ($1.26, 280m shares) seems to need 6.3 cents per share profit PE 20, or about $18m pa; and X RO ($35.21, 127m shares) needs 176 cents per share profit PE 20, or $223m pa. Check the figures and maths yourself, obviously, but maybe you can see why I think BLT should give a return on share price first. Mr Market doesn't seem to agree though, so what would I know.

Anyway, BLT is suddenly looking like it could win. But we wait to see what actually happens.

The difference, clearly, is management. While BLIS management seems (to me anyway), quite unfocussed and taking a "let's try this" approach to achieving sales, both PEB's and XRO's are very focussed. They also deliver on what they say, consistently performing to, or beyond expectations. I have said this before, but when you invest in a company you are investing in its management for forward looking growth, BLIS doesn't appear to offer much in the way of exceptional management, just middling. PEBs appear to have very good quality management in the form of leadership and commitment. XRO has very good management in terms of track record and ability. Until BLIS's management prove they can be focussed and excel at what they should be doing, people won't be convinced they are going to be successful in the future.

You can have an amazing product, but with terrible management it will all go down the toilet. RAK case in point.

I bet if you asked BLIS shareholders who ran the company, half of them wouldn't even know. But ask the same question to XRO or PEB shareholders... and does everyone realise that BLIS only has 11 staff members?

DISC: I hold BLT shares, in the hope management can learn to be better!

simla

08-11-2013, 11:09 PM

taking a "let's try this" approach to achieving sales

Do they have a choice? X RO are selling accounting software - an extremely well established market. P EB are selling medical tests - an extremely well established market.

But who do you know selling probiotics? When did you last buy any personally? Yoghurt is the only product consumers understand. Well, Blis stated very early on that food was the way to go, particularly dairy, and GRAS was the objective. But it's taken several years to get legal rights. I have read very widely on the legal requirements of probiotics and I can tell you the lid has been slammed down very hard indeed worldwide during the time Blis have been doing this and they are actually doing pretty well to have got where they are with permissions. The company has stated quite a few times how extremely frustrating it is to have to get through all these legal barriers.

blobbles

09-11-2013, 12:17 AM

Do they have a choice? X RO are selling accounting software - an extremely well established market. P EB are selling medical tests - an extremely well established market.

But who do you know selling probiotics? When did you last buy any personally? Yoghurt is the only product consumers understand. Well, Blis stated very early on that food was the way to go, particularly dairy, and GRAS was the objective. But it's taken several years to get legal rights. I have read very widely on the legal requirements of probiotics and I can tell you the lid has been slammed down very hard indeed worldwide during the time Blis have been doing this and they are actually doing pretty well to have got where they are with permissions. The company has stated quite a few times how extremely frustrating it is to have to get through all these legal barriers.

IMHO probiotics aren't at all unique in terms of market/saleability.

Vitamins are sold everywhere as a health improver/immunity defence, whatever. Food supplements/fortifiers are also sold all over the show, an example being artificial sweeteners (said of course to lower calories and be healthier as a result). Just because BLIS's product is planning on, for example, lowering strep virus infections to improve health, does not make it hugely different. It is a supplement you take to improve health. The little pill has something in it different to what is currently being sold, sure, but does this make it an entirely new market? I would say NO. It makes it a new type of medicine, sure, but there are clearly established sales pathways for health improvement or food supplement additives aiming at health improvement.

The company has done damn well to get through all the legal barriers, that is a testament to the science and lawyers. But that's not what it needs now (although further blind tests involving hundreds of people wouldn't hurt), it now needs marketing and sales. And THAT is what the company appears to be poor at. If nobody knows about your products, you haven't got people knocking on doors selling the story of your product, even if it is an amazing story, then it will never happen.

PEB have the best test on the market as a possible replacement for a test that sticks a tube up your pee pee. If sales just happened based on potential, they would be selling hundreds of thousands of the buggers by now. But it doesn't, it requires sales teams, plans and targets, all of which PEB has implemented and is measuring themselves against. And these things, as shareholders of a company we want profit from, we measure them on and will respond badly if they don't deliver. BLIS isn't even delivering on the plans yet, hence it is in the doldrums.

GRIFFIN

09-11-2013, 07:30 AM

Yes they need to sharpen their marketing thats for sure,go to your local health store and chances are they will not stock Bliss products but they will have a full range of Inner Health or Go Healthy products or is the NZ market not important to Bliss.

Danzx

11-11-2013, 12:40 PM

Well there it is folks...the big BLT share dump driving the price down.

Nigel

11-11-2013, 12:54 PM

Well there it is folks...the big BLT share dump driving the price down.

Prediction = back at 1.5 by the end of the day.

Nigel

11-11-2013, 01:00 PM

simla

11-11-2013, 01:05 PM

There's a lot of buying going on with all this selling. I wonder if we won't see an SSH after a while.

jonu

11-11-2013, 01:06 PM

Rationale is that there's good support at 1.3c and only $133 worth on offer at 1.4c. So a purchase of 10,000 shares (about $140 worth) will see us back at 1.5c. There are lots of people wanting in on this prior to the next update, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it head a bit higher before then.

You might be right Nigel, but I think there is a bit more dust (SPP shares) to settle yet. I'd be n n n nervous about buying back in yet.

Harvey Specter

11-11-2013, 01:06 PM

Well there it is folks...the big BLT share dump driving the price down.

Prediction = back at 1.5 by the end of the day.Depends how many others want to dump their SPP shares. Currently a nice 30% profit for less than two weeks on a $15k investment. You might see someone panic and offload theirs for a measly 20% gain.

Hold in tight but there may be a bit of turbulance while the overhang from the SPP plays out. Good news at the next announcement will sort that out.

GR8DAY

11-11-2013, 01:35 PM

Well there it is folks...the big BLT share dump driving the price down.

.....it was always on the cards DANZX with so many shares now on offer and a quick 30% gain........traders cant resist that sort of return in a couple of weeks!!

Nigel

11-11-2013, 01:58 PM

jonu

11-11-2013, 02:11 PM

A lot of the SPP uptake will be from long term holders. Some traders will have been in on the action, but remember that a lot of the recent price upsurge (and new people coming on board) was occuring AFTER the record date for the SPP. That said, it doesn't tak emuch to move this stock (either way) so if a few traders decide to bail it does impact th eshareprice (in the short term anyway). Conversely (and as we saw a couple of weeks ago) the stock can jump up in price very quickly, so if I was a trader, I'm not sure I'd want to take too much off the table lest I miss the next jump.

The price rise was after the record date but before people's allocation was definite. This stock owes some people alot, so it is unsurprising is if a chunk of the spp shares get traded off. A bird in the hand.... The question is "how much of a chunk?"

Nigel

11-11-2013, 08:54 PM

Is it just me, or was the article in today's ODT (and also printed in NZ Herald) way off the mark.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/280563/139-million-good-blis

The article suggests that the capital raising only brought in $1.391m of a $4.5m target, and fell well beneath expectations. Very negative tone throughout.

They seemed to have missed the point that the SPP to shareholders was only targeting $1.5m, and other placements to NZPR, APP, Edinburgh had already brought in $2.33m.

So in total, the capital raising has achieved $3.721m so far - well within the target range of $3.5m-$4.5m.

This tells a very different story to the one in today's article.

In my mind, the reality is a much different story - a well-supported capital raising; a new plant just opened up to allow for expanded operations; increasing revenues; new major shareholders with connections into Asia and the Middle East (directors of one of the new investment companies include former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley and the chairman of the Dubai Chamber of Commerce); regulatory approvals in USA, China and Europe; a distribution arrangement with China's largest pharmaceutical distributor (who happen to be visiting Dunedin this month - there's a better story for them); a forecast for a maiden profit "in the foreseeable future".

Or did I misunderstand something?

Harvey Specter

11-11-2013, 09:24 PM

Nigel - I was a bit confused by the article too. Can't blame them - they probably don't even receive the living wage with all the cut backs they've had.

emearg

11-11-2013, 09:27 PM

Or did I misunderstand something? No, you weren't the one misunderstanding. Idiot journalist...

Nigel

11-11-2013, 09:31 PM

No, you weren't the one misunderstanding. Idiot journalist...

I think the journalist was getting his info from Craigs Investment Partners. It was likely Craigs giving the steer in the wrong direction. Probably not a stock they follow closely, but giving the wrong info totally screws the tone of the article.

pierre

12-11-2013, 09:49 AM

[In my mind, the reality is a much different story - a well-supported capital raising; a new plant just opened up to allow for expanded operations; increasing revenues; new major shareholders with connections into Asia and the Middle East (directors of one of the new investment companies include former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley and the chairman of the Dubai Chamber of Commerce); regulatory approvals in USA, China and Europe; a distribution arrangement with China's largest pharmaceutical distributor (who happen to be visiting Dunedin this month - there's a better story for them); a forecast for a maiden profit "in the foreseeable future".

Or did I misunderstand something?]

Based on the date of last year's report it seems highly likely that the report for the half-year to 30 September will be released on Friday.

In the absence of any negative guidance and with the activities referred to above, plus a reasonable amount of dosh in the bank, maybe I might not be crazy in anticipating some reasonably good news from BLT. What would really help is if the report contained a more robust definition of "a maiden profit in the foreseeable future" - but maybe that is being crazy!

Fingers crossed.

winner69

12-11-2013, 09:52 AM

Jenny often the cause for punters to run to the hills .... or a signal not to touch with a barge pole .... or whatever the sayings are

jonu

12-11-2013, 10:12 AM

Jenny often the cause for punters to run to the hills .... or a signal not to touch with a barge pole .... or whatever the sayings are

My abiding memory of Jenny Shipley as PM was in interviews where she would start by saying "I want to be very clear-" followed by an enormous lack of clarity:scared:

In4a$

12-11-2013, 10:23 AM

My abiding memory of Jenny Shipley as PM was in interviews where she would start by saying "I want to be very clear-" followed by an enormous lack of clarity:scared:

Couldnt agree more, I stopped voting National while she was there

simla

12-11-2013, 10:45 AM

She was interviewed on Q&A a while back, and she came across very well indeed. She seemed a lot more confident in the world of business than I thought she had in politics. She was perfectly open about Mainzeal and said she had done a lot of work to ensure staff and customers came out of it as well as possible, and indeed complaints have been very few since in the media. I was fairly impressed in all honesty. Here's a transcript if anyone's interested http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1309/S00153/qa-dame-jenny-shipley-reflects-on-mainzeal-collapse.htm

In any case, she is one of a group, all of whom look like they know a thing or two - always assuming it really is Asia Pacific and not Asian Pacific, being two different companies, and since the Blis releases seem to slip into either at times!

Nigel

12-11-2013, 10:55 AM

...always assuming it really is Asia Pacific and not Asian Pacific, being two different companies, and since the Blis releases seem to slip into either at times!

SSH notices are in the name of the majority shareholder of ASIA Pacific Partners. I also confirmed with Barry Richardson that it is ASIA and not ASIAN (the former being a much more desirable business partner / investor!).

Would be good to get this correct in future announcements / reports :)

simla

12-11-2013, 12:09 PM

Blis for pets in Japan: This is the one with K12 that I posted a while ago following the last report. http://www.kyoritsuseiyaku.co.jp/products/detail/ca/product_211.html

But now I see this one, with both K12 and M18 in Japan also. Searching Japan and dates is tricky, but I think they may have brought out a K12 one first and this K12/M18 now? http://premium-suiso.co.jp/

ps. Hey, this could be significant. I just read that there are more cats and dogs in Japan than children, over 20 million.

winner69

12-11-2013, 03:01 PM

Nigel

12-11-2013, 03:20 PM

Jenny and that guy Yan who had great connections in China did wonders for Richina shareholders ....didn't they

Pretty sure Richard Yan isn't attached to APPL or BLT in any way. Here are the peopel involved in APPL - some impressive expereince/networks here. Here's hoping they translate into opportunities and revenue for Blis!

http://www.asiapacificpartners.co.nz/ourpeople.htm

pierre

12-11-2013, 04:36 PM

[Based on the date of last year's report it seems highly likely that the report for the half-year to 30 September will be released on Friday.

In the absence of any negative guidance and with the activities referred to above, plus a reasonable amount of dosh in the bank, maybe I might not be crazy in anticipating some reasonably good news from BLT. What would really help is if the report contained a more robust definition of "a maiden profit in the foreseeable future" - but maybe that is being crazy!

Fingers crossed.

Does anyone have any thoughts about what the half-year report might contain - and what might happen to the SP as a consequence?

simla

12-11-2013, 05:00 PM

did wonders for Richina shareholders ....didn't they
Winner, I'm speechless. I had shares in Richina for a while, so I've thought about it a lot. In the end all I see is a lot of people ignoring the fact that Richina was a vast undertaking that got caught out by the GFC. I have no doubt that everyone was doing their utmost, despite lots of grumbles.

The fact that Blis also has been a vast undertaking in the midst of the GFC, but which has not failed, is therefore one of the reasons I have a lot of time for them. That's impressive. Almost miraculous!

simla

12-11-2013, 05:04 PM

Does anyone have any thoughts about what the half-year report might contain - and what might happen to the SP as a consequence?
If we get more detail on why they think there is a profit coming, SP could do interesting things. Else, maybe not.

pierre

12-11-2013, 05:46 PM

If we get more detail on why they think there is a profit coming, SP could do interesting things. Else, maybe not.

Well I'm confident that we will get positive news - and I've backed my belief by topping up again today so that I now hold
3million shares.

My average cost is below today's market price so I'm already on the right side of the ledger. But, like Percy with HNZ (which I also hold), I now feel "well positioned" to capitalise on the upward trend that I'm sure will come from BLT over the next year or two.

Hopefully the half-year announcement will signal the start of a round of good news such as local sales continuing to grow, new markets being found and developed, distribution alliances in China progressing and that maiden profit close to fruition - rather than in the foreseeable future.

Keenly waiting for Friday's release.

emearg

12-11-2013, 08:40 PM

No, you weren't the one misunderstanding. Idiot journalist...

They responded to feedback and updated the article a little. Left the title the same though.

Nigel

12-11-2013, 09:46 PM

They responded to feedback and updated the article a little. Left the title the same though.

I had a few emails back and forth with the investment advisor - to his credit, he was very interested in getting the figures correct. The journo also responded to say they would amend the article and run a correction in tomorrow's ODT.

Nigel

12-11-2013, 09:52 PM

Hmmm... just reading the amended version... saying that the sum was raised in its last three capital raising isn't accurate - I see it as one capital raising that went to major investors and to existing shareholders.

And the following is also inaccurate as the total raised was within their target range: "Craigs Investments Partners broker Peter McIntyre said while not gaining the targeted capital injection, Blis was likely to be ''quietly happy'' with the cash raised, which should underpin its operations for at least another year."

I'd also be surprised if they had to come back to us in a year for more funding as they're now sitting on a pretty healthy pile of cash and operations must be getting close to cashflow positive.

simla

13-11-2013, 09:33 AM

Those who doubt that Blis is picking up momentum under the new distributors: I do see products here and there but can't be bothered checking whether they are new, but think they are. These ones definitely are as examples though.

A K12M18 in Taiwan http://www.pcstore.com.tw/22215448/M14833073.htm

Another K12M18 in Finland http://www.yliopistonverkkoapteekki.fi/TOOTHGUIDE-lapset-maitohappobakteeri-hampaille-30-purutablettia

And here's the first pet product I posted yesterday/recently in another store in Japan, showing coverage. http://doubutsunotame.ocnk.net/product/183

Plus obviously the other new pet product in Japan I posted yesterday. http://premium-suiso.co.jp/

Nigel

13-11-2013, 09:46 AM

Makes sense to have K12 and M18 together in one product. Why don't we have something similar available here?!

GR8DAY

13-11-2013, 10:18 AM

Nigel

13-11-2013, 10:32 AM

......dont expect great things just yet fellow S/holders....good things take time. (yes we've been waiting a while now) I still believe we're we're talking a couple of years before the sun really starts to shine on this stock......and dont be surprised to see the shareprice just drift back now for a while. As more shareholders get confirmation of their new holdings subsequent to the SPP, some will find the attraction of a quick 30-40% easy profit too hard to resist Im sure (and who would blame them?) . That said even if it settles around 1.2c that's still a good net gain on the SPP and we should all be happy with that...for now.

Those sound like the words of someone who wants to buy more stock at a slightly cheaper price :)

I agree that it may be a year or two before things start to really hum (in terms of revenue/profitability) but we've seen how stocks can rise significantly on expectation of future revenues. BLT's market cap is still very low, any clarification of timelines re profitability will make things interesting. The valuation report that accompanied the SPP docs had some very bullish forecasts so they must be confident of lifting sales significantly.

A positive update re the Sinopharm visit would also be welcomed!

GR8DAY

13-11-2013, 10:40 AM

[QUOTE=Nigel;441312]Those sound like the words of someone who wants to buy more stock at a slightly cheaper price :)

I agree that it may be a year or two before things start to really hum (in terms of revenue/profitability) but we've seen how stocks can rise significantly on expectation of future revenues. BLT's market cap is still very low, any clarification of timelines re profitability will make things interesting. The valuation report that accompanied the SPP docs had some very bullish forecasts so they must be confident of lifting sales significantly.

ha! LOL.......yes always wanting to buy "cheaper" stock!........but really just being realistic on this one.......a steady rise (or fall) in the SP is always better for everyone.....dont wanna get ahead of ourselves and line the SP up for another "dumping".

pierre

14-11-2013, 04:48 PM

News Release
For immediate release
November 14, 2013

New Shareholding Signals Offshore Market Potential
A successful capital-raising at the top end of the range sought by BLIS
Technologies has also brought the benefit of attracting shareholders deeply
connected with significant markets in Asia, the Middle East and China.

A total of $4.33 million has been raised. This includes funds for share
placements already received of $2.33 million. A share purchase plan available
to all shareholders generated $1.39 million. A further $0.60 million has been
pledged in subscription agreements with funds due to be received in late
November, 2013.

Chief executive Dr Barry Richardson said while having the capital in place to
support the company's strategy is important, the exceptional benefit coming
from the capital raising is the change in shareholding configuration.
"I think these new shareholders grasped how the uniqueness of our product
range creates tangible potential to own a niche position in lucrative
markets. They understand those particular markets and agree that we have
something special to offer - therefore they have backed our strategy."

New shareholder, Asia Pacific Partners Ltd, has commercial and trading
connections throughout Asia and the Middle East.

Existing shareholder NZPR Group (including its associated parties), which
distributes BLIS in China, has expanded its shareholding. NZPR Group is
involved in broad business interests from movie distribution to dairy
products, grass cultivars and horticultural products. NZPR Group also has a
business relationship with one of China's largest pharmaceutical companies
that will benefit BLIS. Senior people from that company, Sino Pharm, will be
visiting BLIS in Dunedin next week.

Dr Richardson said that he believes having such well-connected companies with
an uninterrupted view of the trends and demands of the markets they operate
in will assist in increasing the pace of market development.

"They have a visceral interest in BLIS being successful."

After placements and the recent share purchase plan, BLIS has four major
shareholders and related parties accounting for 45.7% of the total
shareholding of BLIS.

Dr Richardson said having shareholders who can open the right doors for BLIS,
and having funds to work with that are at the higher end of our expectation,
creates the opportunity to bring forward further market development
initiatives in international markets.

BLIS went to the market seeking capital within the range of $3.5 million to
$4.5 million in order to continue with attaining regulatory approvals in key
markets and develop market channels.

END

Well, that certainly sends a positive message - good to see. Now just need to turn the opportunity into reality.

simla

14-11-2013, 04:51 PM

So, even more money for Blis and another shareholder, we'll find out who in a bit presumably. Or possibly one of the existing ones? It could be follow through on this option they announced a while ago, slightly different amount. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240833

Was there anything interesting in "NZPR ... which distributes BLIS in China ", which is the present tense, or is that just another way of describing it?

Four major shareholders making up 45.7%. Well, things sure have changed.

simla

14-11-2013, 05:05 PM

"with funds due to be received in late November" - half-year report delayed until then, perhaps?

They sounded pretty pleased with things in that announcement, did you think? In fact, are we seeing Blis engaged in that old fashioned practice of talking up the market? If so, then that would be a first which would seem to imply considerable confidence with where this is going, since Blis have always been extremely conservative on that sort of thing?

This appears to continue the trend of good news coming out of Blis this year.

Danzx

14-11-2013, 07:25 PM

"with funds due to be received in late November" - half-year report delayed until then, perhaps?

Fingers were/are crossed for a report tomorrow although I wouldn't expect it after a media 'hype' release today.

Those that also hold PEB are having fun buying heavily discounted shares to bring our average holding price down.

disc: hold BLT & PEB and smiling.

neopoleII

14-11-2013, 07:36 PM

""Blis engaged in that old fashioned practice of talking up the market?""

possibly......... but the REAL market that counts is the market that purchases the PRODUCT.
and that hasnt really happened at all.
the way the products are advertised gets a good but very short uptake of the products in the market..... generally the new
markets..... then it all tapers off...... year after year.
how many countries a Blis products exposed too? How many Mega companies have "trialed" blis products?
Blis is available to Nestle, all the toothpaste co's, the USA, NZ and many many other outlets yarda yarda yarda.
there are thousands of internet websites and pages selling (doh... advertising) the products, and still.... a good rural 4square has a higher turn over.
So they have a few Major shareholders in BLT now...... my guess the monies involved per major shareholder is pocket money
or a new German car.
this co is soo hyped up its incredible.
show us some sales figures that represent the hype.
BUT...... they do have heaps of cash now...... what will they do with it???
employing a good market company would be paramount Im guessing.
if they get to 5cent per share based on sales not hype..... im in BIG time..... again
otherwise its just dreams.

blobbles

14-11-2013, 08:31 PM

Fingers were/are crossed for a report tomorrow although I wouldn't expect it after a media 'hype' release today.

Those that also hold PEB are having fun buying heavily discounted shares to bring our average holding price down.

disc: hold BLT & PEB and smiling.

Please. Claims of "heavily discounted shares" is only true when fundamentals show they are heavily discounted. BLIS is a loss making entity currently with few sales. PEB is also loss making with virtually no sales. "Heavily discounted" therefore does not apply to either of them.

Danzx

14-11-2013, 08:55 PM

Please. Claims of "heavily discounted shares" is only true when fundamentals show they are heavily discounted. BLIS is a loss making entity currently with few sales. PEB is also loss making with virtually no sales. "Heavily discounted" therefore does not apply to either of them.

Ok well I mean that I get shares at a price less than the market price.

simla

14-11-2013, 09:43 PM

Looking for the walk to be walked tomorrow. not holding my breath...

Hard to say, isn't it. They're clearly excited about something.

Well, they might know exactly where they're going with China now. And they know how sales are going for the first 7 or 8 months of this year. Then too, the ice cream did sell a lot more heavily than just the bottles of supplements, so they may be feeling pretty good if they know they have some sort of food/yoghurt outlet ready to run. And maybe some other stuff is working out that we don't really know about yet. And IF the extra money is more of NZPR (since they already have four large shareholders, and in light of that option) that would indicate some confidence from them, which would obviously also be grounds for optimism. Plus there is still the fact that Nestle have some sort of deal running that we know nothing of.

The question is whether we will get sufficient info from the report to help us. Blis are pretty good at protecting their business partner's interests with discretion if they feel that is called for. The gist of that announcement was that the new shareholders can open doors. We just don't know what doors they are talking of!

We'll see. I can't help feeling we just saw some sort of balloon go up, but that would be easy to imagine, of course. A curious stage of developments.

pierre

15-11-2013, 08:42 AM

Nothing released so far - but the 2012 half-year report wasn't published till mid-afternoon on Friday 16 November, so maybe later today....

Nigel

15-11-2013, 09:56 AM

Sellers at 1.6c about to be taken out. A few more people wanting in before the announcement. I'm not expecting miracles in terms of revenues or new information. I expect revenues to be up on last period (as signalled earlier) and some excitement about new investors, new formulations plant and potential. Any reference to when they expect profitability to hit will be well received. I'd love to know how Q24 is going, and alsokeen to hear more about what 'formulations' they are producing - less likely to be yoghurt, more likely to be powders as signalled in older announcements (much easier to export powder than liquid).

The company's development scientists have been preparing new food-product applications, including delivery systems such as lozenges, powder formulations, chewable soft gels, mouthwashes, chewing gum and wafer melts. (ODT 2011)

Could be an interesting day :)

pierre

15-11-2013, 10:07 AM

Could be an interesting day :)

Yep - first sales @ 1.7 - oops now at 1.8.

GR8DAY

15-11-2013, 10:13 AM

......hi Nigel. Gotta admit Im pleasantly surprised how the SP is being supported......not at all what I thought was going to happen.(POST SPP) The pre-report yesterday is clearly full of positives......some very subtle, but none the less, the "suggestive" talk is there to propel both the SP and more importantly growth phase ahead.......here's hoping.

Nigel

15-11-2013, 10:57 AM

reasonable volume through this morning, depth thinning on both sides. Next resistance at 2c?

pierre

15-11-2013, 05:08 PM

No half-year report released today. Perhaps this signifies they have too many dollars and insufficient employees to count them?

Hopefully the BLT team will be working all weekend to complete the task and bring us the news on Monday. Could any ST members who live in Dunedin drive by their office and check whether the lights are blazing there late tonight?

simla

15-11-2013, 05:52 PM

Blis have a long history of presenting factually accurate information. With the visit next week and the funds due at the end of the month, I fear you may have to contain your patience until then so the written facts are not merely probable.

Very heavy activity on the market. Let's hope the company intends to present information to satisfy that demand. Ironic that the same expenditure would have been more profitable via the SPP.

Rego55

16-11-2013, 06:58 AM

What is the best place to find the report when it comes out? Is it on the NZX website or better to go to the BLIS website?

winner69

16-11-2013, 07:38 AM

What is the best place to find the report when it comes out? Is it on the NZX website or better to go to the BLIS website?

NZX site mate

You'll need the patience of Job and plenty of time to read it ...... never seen a company to use so many words to say so little .... but occasionally a literary masterpiece that even Tolstoy would have been proud off

Leftfield

16-11-2013, 07:41 AM

What is the best place to find the report when it comes out? Is it on the NZX website or better to go to the BLIS website?

I establish a watch list with Direct Brokers and set it so I get an email alert when any news is released by any co. Works a treat. :)

Rego55

16-11-2013, 08:10 AM

Nice one. Cheers.

Nigel

18-11-2013, 10:03 AM

Sinopharm week. And Update week. Must.. be... patient...

clip

18-11-2013, 10:47 AM

Sellers at 0.18 slowly getting cleared.. gone from 1.05m to 746k over last little while. # of sellers at 0.18 has gone from 4 to 2 though, so i can't tell through ASB if they have actually sold or if they having moved their asks ups

pierre

18-11-2013, 11:03 AM

Part of a story on Stuff Business today quoted below. That's the first time I've read of a forecast that the company would become profitable in the year to 31 March 2015 - to date it's always been "in the foreseeable future". Not sure if that's a journo's interpretation of the phrase or a quote from Barry Richardson.

Struggling biotech Blis Technologies says its ongoing hunt for extra capital has resulted in a total of $4.33 million being raised.

The listed company in mid-October announced it was seeking $3.5-$4.5m in support of the commercialisation of Blis products in New Zealand and international markets.

The Dunedin-based company, which has lost significant shareholders' funds over its history, has name investors including Dunedin investor and Blis Technologies director Tony Offen, and Forsyth Barr chairman Eion Edgar.

Together Offen and Edgar, through Edinburgh Equity Nominees, hold around 20.5 per cent of Blis shares.

Blis said $4.33m had been raised. This included funds for share placements already received of $2.33m.

A share purchase plan available to all shareholders generated $1.39m.

A further $600,000 had been pledged in subscription agreements with funds due to be received in late November, 2013.

Chief executive Barry Richardson said having the capital in place to support the company's strategy was important.

The funds would last through until the company forecast it would become profitable in the financial year to March 31, 2015.

Nigel

18-11-2013, 11:57 AM

Here's the link to the Stuff article for anyone interested.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9410337/Blis-secures-firm-till-March-2015

clip

18-11-2013, 12:42 PM

0.018 almost dried up now, less than 100k to go :D here's hoping for a good update this week!

Nigel

18-11-2013, 12:42 PM

Only $1560 left on offer at 1.8c. Slowly but steadily eating through the offers :)

Danzx

18-11-2013, 12:45 PM

Only $1560 left on offer at 1.8c. Slowly but steadily eating through the offers :)

DONE...:sleep:

clip

18-11-2013, 12:46 PM

1.8c now gone :)

Harvey Specter

18-11-2013, 12:49 PM

1.8c now gone :)It will be interesting to see if this brings more sellers out of the woodwork. A good profit to be had based on the 1c SPP but potentailly more to come if they can make good and sell their product.

simla

18-11-2013, 12:50 PM

Here's the link to the Stuff article for anyone interested.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9410337/Blis-secures-firm-till-March-2015

Interesting. Well, spotted Pierre. Written by someone who has picked up Blis's background. A lot of it repeats the Blis release.

But the following don't seem to be in Blis's release:

"with some of those shareholders able to lead the company through to new markets, given their contacts in Asia and the Middle East, Richardson said. "
"Existing Christchurch-based shareholder NZPR Group and associated parties help distributes Blis products in China. NZPR Group had expanded its shareholding to around 13.6 per cent, Richardson said. "
"Also Novus International, which supplied ingredients to Blis, was opening doors into the European and Asian markets."
"The funds would last through until the company forecast it would become profitable in the financial year to March 31, 2015."

If this really was an interview, and the forecast for profit really was the next financial year, then the shares start to look pretty cheap? So, will the coming release predict a profit in the coming financial year? Or was this just one person's understanding of things? The phrase "Novus International, which supplied ingredients to Blis" is, of course, backwards, and that might suggest it was indeed notes from an interview?

Tantalising, but can we rely on that forecast date? Don't know.

simla

18-11-2013, 01:19 PM

All right, let's have a little fun.

If there are around 1000m shares, then a $1m profit would be $1/1000 per share, or 0.1 cents per share. Check the maths youself, obviously.

So, if we took a PE of 20 say, that would loosely come to a share price of 2 cents per $1m profit pa. Again, check the maths yourself.

So, if Blis predicts profit coming soon - which we remain to hear confirmation of - then what are the shares worth now?

simla

18-11-2013, 01:47 PM

Yeah, okay. I guess quite a few of us hope it's "quite a bit", but we just don't know yet.

GR8DAY

18-11-2013, 03:08 PM

hi Simla........I guess if you can put a price on "serious potential" (like the market has for PEB, XRO etc) then Blis is clearly "UNDER-PRICED". I personally believe it is and I think the market is just beginning to realize this also. Got a good feeling about Blis now. We currently have some large(r) cornerstone shareholders underpinning the SP and offering their expertise in regards marketing and distribution.....throughout not just the middle east but also CHINA. We have a healthy cash account and talk of future profits for the first time. Im picking a steady improvement over the coming months and years and Im topping up accordingly. MEDIUM/LONGTERM HOLD.

clip

18-11-2013, 04:03 PM

less than 10k left at 1.8c, wonder if we'll see 1.9 today... we can hope :P

Nigel

18-11-2013, 04:06 PM

less than 10k left at 1.8c, wonder if we'll see 1.9 today... we can hope :P

...as in $137! May hit 1.9c today with people wanting onboard before the pending announcement (could come at any time). If not today, I'd expect it to go tomorrow.

Harvey Specter

18-11-2013, 04:12 PM

Danzx

18-11-2013, 04:52 PM

I've done my part today in taking out the 1.8c shares, by averaging up & tripling my initial holding.

Stuuborn sellers at 1.9. We almost got there

clip

18-11-2013, 04:56 PM

Stuuborn sellers at 1.9. We almost got there

Yep.. and 1/some llama's who went down to 1.7, lame :D hopefully not so many lower sellers tomorrow morning to carry us through to 1.9 !

pierre

18-11-2013, 04:58 PM

[QUOTE=Nigel;442518 May hit 1.9c today with people wanting onboard before the pending announcement (could come at any time). If not today, I'd expect it to go tomorrow.[/QUOTE]

I checked with the company and was told today that the half-year announcement will be made "later this month".

GR8DAY

18-11-2013, 05:32 PM

...2.3million changed hands today at an average price of 1.79c......lets just say 1.8c

That's showing tremendous support for a share straight after a 1c SPP.......faith (and hope!) is now creeping back into this stock I believe. Well done Yankiwi......like you Im showing the faith and building on my holding.

GR8DAY

18-11-2013, 05:35 PM

I checked with the company and was told today that the half-year announcement will be made "later this month".

Thanks Pierre for that........expecting only good news but not banking on anything too major at this stage........but who knows??

Harvey Specter

19-11-2013, 10:18 AM

1.9 taken out - a wall at 2c though

Nigel

19-11-2013, 10:18 AM

Hello 1.9c :) 2c will take a bit of getting through but given the momentum building in this stock right now I wouldn't be surprised to eat through a fair chunk of it today. Then when the announcement comes, we could sail a bit higher. Fingers crossed.

Danzx

19-11-2013, 11:53 AM

GR8DAY

19-11-2013, 12:34 PM

You can pray all you want, this rise is on pure speculation. if I was trading id be putting a sell at 1.9 right now, earning a quick double of my capital. 2 cents won't be broken unless there is a stellar announcement (and we know that's not going to happen with BLT). remember, they set a record loss not long ago. if you want to play tradie trader, keep your mind grounded in reality...

......gee MOOSIE I'd love to know where you get those crystal balls from m8??!........" 2cents wont be broken........"?? HA!........does that mean "EVER" or just today??. Not sure why you make such negative statements on a stock you otherwise have no interest in. You can still buy into this re-rating Moosie without rubbishing the stock. The support is clearly there as GENUINE investors recognise the growth prospects (remember BLT was trading up around 12/13c in 2009/2010).....and that's without the current NEW PROSPECTS and off-shore support. Go back to that NTL hole in the ground m8.!!

GR8DAY

19-11-2013, 12:46 PM

if there's an actual profit and great licenses signed up, sure, why not? but with BLT's track record of wealth destruction and failed promises over 10+ years I wouldn't be holding my breath. we were here a mere 10 months ago speculating to our hearts desire (don't believe me? look back then). I made a bit and got the hell out. back down to 1 cent it went.

its easy to ride a high tide; just remember the history of this company...

.....and whats the historical record of NTL m8??.......yea right! (and what's happened to the SP of NTL over the last year or so..........ah oh that's right, gone no-where!!).......meantime BLT has doubled, WDT has doubled, VML up about 300%. I understand your unhappiness m8 but please keep it to yourself.

Danzx

19-11-2013, 12:49 PM

Nigel

19-11-2013, 12:51 PM

And there goes 2c!!!

Wow - just like that. Someone obviously wanted a bigger slice of the pie. Shares on offer now looking thin.

fiasco

19-11-2013, 12:57 PM

I always appreciate your comments moosie. I think the organisation has failed horribly in the past, however the SP seemed to bottom out with respect to this, and they appear to have a more sound and rigorous strategy in place, with proactive shareholders who see a holistic picture with this company.

Previous companies have executed poorly before overcoming barriers and BLIS has the ability to do so, given they follow best practice when it comes to execution. It's an interesting time, and for the shares that are on offer what's a 100,000 shares at .010 (when they were available at 1c) for them to potentially succeed in the long term. With any organisation there is risk, and this is just another one of those companies.

DESC: HOLD BLT and don't plan to sell anytime soon.

Harvey Specter

19-11-2013, 01:04 PM

And there goes 2c!!!Anyone got a lazy $2k to take out the next 0.1? Or a lazy $5k to go hunting for trigger buys above 2c?

Nigel

19-11-2013, 01:11 PM

Anyone got a lazy $2k to take out the next 0.1? Or a lazy $5k to go hunting for trigger buys above 2c?

Or $33626 to take out every single share currently on offer (would go right up to 0.045). Anyone?

winner69

19-11-2013, 01:11 PM

Hey moosie ...I think you hit a nerve with the great one

You should never meddle with cult followers .......ha ha

Oh bugger ....me in trouble now

clip

19-11-2013, 01:12 PM

I'll leave that to you until we see some announcements Nigel, haha! Have sold off half again to take profit, looking to top up again if it drops this avo. Prev bought 0.012, sold 0.016, bought 0.014, now sold half again :)

Danzx

19-11-2013, 01:12 PM

Anyone got a lazy $2k to take out the next 0.1? Or a lazy $5k to go hunting for trigger buys above 2c?

Gosh so tempted to with my 2k I just sold at 2c( brought at 1.7)

simla

19-11-2013, 01:18 PM

I have already had an anonymous user attack me through my work for posting warnings on here

That sounds pretty bad. They're certainly not talking for us all, Moosie, and I'm sorry that happened. Personally I always like to hear dissent, although I like it polite and backed by facts. But I've never claimed "you're wrong, I'm right" - or I certainly hope I haven't.

As you say, dissent is healthy.

There's two basic views here. One is that the company has a long record of not winning. The other is that actually it changed tack about 6 years ago, ran into some mud for a bit, but is now showing very promising signs of traction.

Obviously I hold the latter view, and I'd have said the current share price shows quite a few agree presently. Doesn't mean you won't be shown right later, of course. Hope not, obviously!

Nigel

19-11-2013, 01:22 PM

Right, who's the party pooper who just put 500k+ shares on offer at 2c?! :)

simla

19-11-2013, 01:31 PM

Or $33626 to take out every single share currently on offer (would go right up to 0.045). Anyone?
Way you go, Nigel. It's still only $44k. But let us know first, as maybe we'd throw a couple of extra offers in for you ...

Nigel

19-11-2013, 01:54 PM

Way you go, Nigel. It's still only $44k. But let us know first, as maybe we'd throw a couple of extra offers in for you ...

Yeah, I'll leave it for now. Not sure I could explain that expense too easily to my wife!

Despite the 1mil turning up at 2c, the depth is still showing a lot of support (ASB shows 6.726m on the buy and 2.275m on the sell).

aquaman

19-11-2013, 02:04 PM

Yeah, I'll leave it for now. Not sure I could explain that expense too easily to my wife!

Despite the 1mil turning up at 2c, the depth is still showing a lot of support (ASB shows 6.726m on the buy and 2.275m on the sell).

Hey Nigel
its easier to ask for forgiveness than permission!

clip

19-11-2013, 04:24 PM

NTL up today as well, did you pick some up to prove them wrong moosie :P

clip

19-11-2013, 05:26 PM

:) was not meaning to suggest you would

garfy

19-11-2013, 05:37 PM

why do you associate me with NTL? I haven't posted anything there for months. I do have other investments...

this is a free forum, I can post my views (within reason). I feel people need a reality check with BLT so I am trying to help. I have already had an anonymous user attack me through my work for posting warnings on here, so telling me to be quiet won't work. God forbid i should dissent from the masses...

*leaves in disgust*

Forget the disgust, please leave - and do some of the work you are being paid for.

(disc) - I am not the person who 'pimped'!

simla

19-11-2013, 05:57 PM

I don't agree with Moosie about this being a bit of ramp this time, but it's nice to have someone considering the other point of view, and we don't know if he's right or wrong yet. I've lost count of how many shares have gone through recently, but at least 20 or 30 million at a guess. It is a bit odd since the SPP was not over-subscribed only recently at a much lower price. Against that, of course, the news continues to be promising.

This group will definitely be the worse if it reduces to just people agreeing with each other.

Longhaul

19-11-2013, 08:40 PM

I wonder if their ads are poping up in the States too?

Yankiwi, you can target geographically with Google Adwords / Display Network. New Zealand advertisers can show ads only to people from a NZ based internet connection regardless of the country the website appears to come from. BLIS could target any country the same way. I.e. show certain ads only to people in the US, certain ads to people in China and so on.

Harvey Specter

20-11-2013, 07:19 AM

Yankiwi, you can target geographically with Google Adwords / Display Network. New Zealand advertisers can show ads only to people from a NZ based internet connection regardless of the country the website appears to come from. BLIS could target any country the same way. I.e. show certain ads only to people in the US, certain ads to people in China and so on.
On Facebook, you can even target by age, race, sex, religion .... Anything else you put in.

Harvey Specter

20-11-2013, 08:13 AM

Thanks HS, I don't, nor will ever do the whole FB thing. It's amazingly powerful, but that power can be used for both positive & negitive purposes. For me, the potential negitives outweigh whatever could be the positives.
I am not an active Facebook user either but have seen scary examples of targeted ads . Eg. You could place a 'hate' ad to all the gay Catholics in your post code.

bonne vie

20-11-2013, 08:57 AM

Forget the disgust, please leave - and do some of the work you are being paid for.

(disc) - I am not the person who 'pimped'!

Last word hopefully on this and we can get back to BLT. Garfy I find your post disturbing - arrogant. Moosie brings a lot of humour and generally good comment to a lot of ST threads. On the threads I follow I have to say this is the first time I have seen your posts and it was not a pretty introduction.
Lets all have a good day and get back to topic.

GR8DAY

20-11-2013, 09:31 AM

garfy

20-11-2013, 09:32 AM

BV. I have to agree with your sentiments, and apologise for sending that post to this forum. A rush of blood….

GR8DAY

20-11-2013, 09:42 AM

BV. I have to agree with your sentiments, and apologise for sending that post to this forum. A rush of blood….

........well accepted Garfy, it happens to us all at times....( and besides Im picking Moosie is big enough to not let it worry him too much)

Nigel

20-11-2013, 09:54 AM

.......can someone more knowledgable than me (please dont everyone answer), confirm the other cornerstone shareholders we have and the percentages they hold? I have managed to find Edinburgh Equity holding over 58million shares @ 5.6% and Sinclair Longterm Holdings with 144million shares @ 13.8%........who are the others? Just trying to establish the % of shares on offer that are "locked away"...... so to speak.

Hi mate, try this article:
http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9410337/Blis-secures-firm-till-March-2015

The holdings for NZPR Group, Asia Pacific Partners Ltd, Edinburgh and David Wu are all mentioned (I haven't checked with SSH notices to confirm accuracy).

I'm on my phone so not well placed to document it all nicely for you, but hopefully it will give you the info you're after.

GR8DAY

20-11-2013, 10:11 AM

Hi mate, try this article:
http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9410337/Blis-secures-firm-till-March-2015

The holdings for NZPR Group, Asia Pacific Partners Ltd, Edinburgh and David Wu are all mentioned (I haven't checked with SSH notices to confirm accuracy).

I'm on my phone so not well placed to document it all nicely for you, but hopefully it will give you the info you're after.

.....cheers m8, will do some further reading.

simla

20-11-2013, 10:18 AM

Yeah, it's a little confusing.

According to that Stuff report www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9410337/Blis-secures-firm-till-March-2015

Edinburgh 20.5%
David Wu 5.9%
NZPR 13.6%
Asia Pacific Partners Ltd 5.7%

20.5 + 5.9 + 13.6 + 5.7 = 45.7, as stated in that report.

Compare that to recent SSHs:

Edinburgh 19.47%% https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/243892 https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/243891 https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/243893
Xu Qi WU & Yao Hong SHEN 6.159% - so is this the same as "David Wu" 5.9%, or a completely different holding? I've no idea. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/241390
NZPR 11.3% https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240989
Hui Ai Adriana Tong, 6.5%, such a person named as a shareholder in Asia Pacific Partners on the companies website, https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240891

ACC 3.8% https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/242440

19.5%+6.159+11.3+6.5 = 43.4 + 3.8 = 47.2

Add in the 600k new funding, which is 60m shares of 1042m = 6% dilution, then 43.4% becomes 40.8%. Add in the new 6% and thats 46.8%. Close, no cigars.

So, WHO KNOWS!!

Anyway, the bottom line is that about half of the company seems to be in shareholdings unlikely to release to the market. Additionally, and at a rough calculation, excluding all those people from the top 20 in the last annual report, there appears to be another 15% probably locked up in the top 20 there, plus whatever those people all bought this time around, which may be another 5% to 10%, and there appears to be maybe 35% of the company open for trading, and even those may be locked in people's minds.

All a VERY ROUGH calculation, do your own research!! I am totally unresponsible for having made a mess of those figures! Apologies if I'm wrong - please post corrections!

Does anyone feel these numbers are either correct or incorrect in principal?