BLT - Blis Technologies

[Bobcat.]

Has Blis gone marketing mad? Just about everywhere I go blis keeps popping up on the tablet or is that just because I bought some and google has found out and now I will blistzed for all eternity.

Go to your browser settings, then Internet Options, and then 'delete' temporary files: you will then be presented with options to choose Cookies, History (a favourite amongst teenagers), etc.

If merely deleting cookies doesn't do it, you may need to also uncheck "Preserve Favourites Website data".

BC

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for all the helpful comments from those in the higher ranks.
A case of no blis oblige by my reckoning:)

[Longhaul]

Has Blis gone marketing mad? Just about everywhere I go blis keeps popping up on the tablet or is that just because I bought some and google has found out and now I will blistzed for all eternity.

The next time you see an ad, look in the corner of the ad for a small white and blue icon and click that. Or, go here http://www.google.com/settings/ads and opt-out of Google's interest based ads.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for the information - havent attended to it yet.
Anyone out there who has sufficient funds to invest in Blis should put a bit aside for the product itself.
Both of us very impressed with the results so far - things even taste better.:)

[Nigel]

Yep, the product is good. Just need some updates on Sinopharm, revenues, sales into China etc. Would be nice to get a pre-Christmas shareprice lift!

[simla]

Yes, but are you on Santa's Naughty List or Santa's Nice List this year, Nigel?

[simla]

Well, here's a Christmas present for you Nigel. NZ Honey and Blis, made in NZ. Says "The unique Honeyblis range of probiotics are available from a number of retailers nationwide" but doesn't list anywhere yet. Anyone seen this? The web page only seems to be a few days old. It also looks like they expect to export it.

I can see this selling rather well. http://honeyblis.co.nz/index.php/products.html

[simla]

And they probably don't intend to stop there. "We have signed an exclusive agreement with BLIS technologies for the use of BLIS K12TM as an ingredient in combination with honey." In NZ? Around the world? For how long? Anyway, you presume they have other ideas in mind. Honey plus Blis? Good idea.

Another question would be if the new Blis factory is involved in this? Could be, who knows.

[THEONE]

Hi Simla, Merry Christmas
Surely the antibacterial honey is not killing K12 ? Also notice that they are applying for patent honeyblis? that shouldnt really be allowed?. Interesting idea though...Hopefully sells well
http://republikrx.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=464

[simla]

Hi TheOne. Yes, I wondered about anitbacterial manuka plus Blis too! But Blis tends to get those sort of things right.

The brand name on that other product you found seems to specialise in selling into Spanish-speaking areas. There are 400 million native Spanish speakers in the world, so progress on that front would be good.

[GR8DAY]

......good to see our team are continuing to be pro=active and not sitting on there beehinds......after all this is what we pay them for . So good work and a maybe a nice start to the new year with the launch of a new product. I like the combination as we can all relate to a honey flavoured lozenge.......but with an added difference!! Happy Xmas and NY to all fellow believers......I do think we could be in for a stellar year......things are starting to finally line up.

[Nigel]

Definitely good to see new products coming along - this one is especially exciting given the popularity and success of other NZ honey products in overseas markets. Note that this product is being manufactured by a third party, not by Blis directly. But that is a big part of our business model - selling ingredients to other companies. I'd love to know how much money we make on these relationships (given that we've offered these guys exclusive rights over honey products, I'd say we've negotiated a reasonable fee).

Great story behind HoneyBlis - a beekeeper who was benefiting from Blis K12 when traveling and decided to put the two together. http://honeyblis.co.nz/index.php/story

I think this product could sell well. Good luck to them!

[skid]

My daughter is working with a PHD student who is being sponsored by Comvita to do a scientific trail to determine if and how much Manuka honey boosts the immune system.
It involves separating the white blood cells and all kinds of stuff way over my head.
If this is scientifically shown it will obviously boost Comvitas claims for their Manuka honey and could be a helpful spin off for Blis.
theone-I do also get a bit uncomfortable with some of the patents these days as well--can you imagine someone patenting manuka Honey(or the name Manuka) In this case i believe it would have to contain their patented product K12 to be patented.
Not that its that hard to get a good dose of probiotics--I get it in my homemade Kefir every morning

[GR8DAY]

My daughter is working with a PHD student who is being sponsored by Comvita to do a scientific trail to determine if and how much Manuka honey boosts the immune system.
It involves separating the white blood cells and all kinds of stuff way over my head.
If this is scientifically shown it will obviously boost Comvitas claims for their Manuka honey and could be a helpful spin off for Blis.
theone-I do also get a bit uncomfortable with some of the patents these days as well--can you imagine someone patenting manuka Honey(or the name Manuka) In this case i believe it would have to contain their patented product K12 to be patented.
Not that its that hard to get a good dose of probiotics--I get it in my homemade Kefir every morning


......the big difference tho SKID is that Blis is a very specific probiotic pertaining only to the ORAL cavity.......this is what BLIS is all about.......and the ONLY COMMERCIALLY available one of its kind in the world!!

[simla]

And here's another little surprise for Christmas: Blis listed in Walmart online. Is it in stores as well? These pages suggest it's just online via other retailers at this point. Life Extension seems to have got there in October, and Now Foods last week.

http://www.walmart.com/ip/OralBiotic-Now-Foods-60-Lozenge/31432657
http://www.walmart.com/ip/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene-Life-Extension-60-Lozenge/31167558

[skid]

......the big difference tho SKID is that Blis is a very specific probiotic pertaining only to the ORAL cavity.......this is what BLIS is all about.......and the ONLY COMMERCIALLY available one of its kind in the world!!

Interesting ,didnt know that.

I remember looking in Walmarts for Blis some years back with no luck--There were a few other pretty high profile products (kept in a fridge type display) Maybe its there now,not sure

[GR8DAY]

And here's another little surprise for Christmas: Blis listed in Walmart online. Is it in stores as well? These pages suggest it's just online via other retailers at this point. Life Extension seems to have got there in October, and Now Foods last week.

http://www.walmart.com/ip/OralBiotic-Now-Foods-60-Lozenge/31432657
http://www.walmart.com/ip/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene-Life-Extension-60-Lozenge/31167558


Gr8!.....all more positive stuff and adding to the global recognition (and hopefully acceptance) of BlisK12 when it comes to both ORAL HEALTH and all those other issues now linked to BAD ORAL HEALTH.....which there are many I believe.

[Nigel]

Happy Christmas everybody!
I hope you all have a great time over the next few days with family and friends; stay safe, unwind, and don't eat too much ham.
We've had a pretty good year with Blis in 2013 (100% gain over the past 12 months, with a couple of spikes higher than that) and 2014 is certainly looking exciting!
Thanks to those who have contributed to the discussion throughout the year, bought shares and supported the product. Hopefully Santa leaves some K12 in your stocking :)
Cheers everyone.

[GR8DAY]

Ha, wel thats not a gud start to my Share Piks for the new year!! (and to think Ive got Blis first on my list)...........all a bit silly really, clearly a couple of panik sellers need a bit of cash to pay off the Xmas credit card. Probably going to be very expensive Xmas presents may I suggest........??

[Radler]

Article in todays ODT that may be of interest,

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/288093/relaxation-and-fun-help-science-learning-prof-says

[GR8DAY]

......"a beautiful combination of antibiotics AND probiotics"........love the mans terminolgy. The concept of combining the two is also an encouraging signal.....the fact that Blis can and maybe should be used in conjunction with antibiotics will have greater mass appeal and be an easier sell to the medical fraternity. Clever thinking Professor Tagg.

[mrjeems]

......"a beautiful combination of antibiotics AND probiotics"........love the mans terminolgy. The concept of combining the two is also an encouraging signal.....the fact that Blis can and maybe should be used in conjunction with antibiotics will have greater mass appeal and be an easier sell to the medical fraternity. Clever thinking Professor Tagg.

When my dog needed antibiotics the vet also gave us pro-biotics. Is this a standard practice for people too? If it is - could be a new market Blis are going for?

[GR8DAY]

.....dont think it's a new idea (giving probiotics after a course of antibiotics) BUT to promote Blis as a standalone product to deal with the inherent negative side of antibiotics , has to be a positive (and clever) thing. The well known issues surrounding mass medicating of antibiotics could quite literally lead to the end of the human race.......there are super-bug bacteria out there now that are resistant to every AB on the planet. Blis promotes the growth of the much needed good bacteria......thus strengthening our immune systems to defend against the bad bacteria. Hopefully it wont take long for the whole world to really wake up to this huge human issue.

[Nigel]

Most interestibn gpart for me in the oDT article was:
Prof Julian Crane, of Otago University's Wellington campus, was recently granted $790,319 to lead the first large-scale clinical trial of Blis.

All going to plan, this will further add to the credibility of what previous trials have shown to be a very effective product, and will helpfully get more of the medical fraternity advocating for our products.

[simla]

Pharmabroker are pushing their online Throatguard sales site as "international", and made a press release to that effect, headed "New Zealand probiotic brand launches Internationally". All publicity helps and good luck to them. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-zealand-probiotic-brand-launches-internationally-240846091.html

I note too that a Honeyblis ad came up in the google search on Blis k12. Their site has "coming soon": under distributors now, so be interesting to watch developments.

The german site I found last year which was not open for business is now all go, by the look of it . http://www.oralflora.de/

Also, I sense from the google searches that Now K12 is steadily picking up market. Hard to be sure, of course.

Steady interest in the shares presently, too. A feeling of critical mass this year? Maybe, hope so!

[Rego55]

Thanks for that simla. Really good to see the marketing machine start cranking up a bit more for Blis.

[mrjeems]

Thanks for that simla. Really good to see the marketing machine start cranking up a bit more for Blis.

Now we just need their PR team to announce some good news so us poor dedicated shareholders can make some money

[GR8DAY]

.....think you'll find they're all too busy with the marketing side of things Mrjeems. Expect a healthy spike in turnover at next reporting....

[Nigel]

It's been very quiet from the company of late. Follow-up comms about the Sinopharm visit would have been very nice to hear. I emailed the company a month or so ago but heard nothing. Doesn't fill me with a whole lot of confidence. That said, an announcement could be just around the corner and send things back to 3c or more. Funny old stock this one.

[simla]

Nil desperandum, Nigel. This company won't be a success until it is a success, sure. But things still seem to be rolling along and I can't see any reason to think it's going off the tracks just because a few weeks have passed. Maybe they even had the nerve to take a Christmas holiday :)

[zymwh]

Probably will be quiet for a while as the whole China is getting into holiday mood (the Chinese New Year)

[mrjeems]

Just browsing the Blis website and saw that they offer a white-label product: http://blis.co.nz/distributors#.UuA02Kw5S9I
I wonder if anyone has taken them up on this - and what these products are...

OPTION 1: Buy BLIS K12™ and BLIS M18™ lozenges, you do the bottling and apply your own label. The key advantage is that you can promote the products containing BLIS probiotics under your brand. If you are interested in creating your own label, then please contact us on info@blis.co.nz for details.

OPTION 2:
BLIS Technologies can do the bottling with your product label. You buy the finished products with your label. This means you get the finished products ready to sell.

[neopoleII]

this link here could be the beginning of something good for blis.
if this information becomes mainstream and supported by health departments world wide........
then blis has a real opportunity to move forward rapidly.
the question is...... can management utilize this to their advantage?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11192348

[GR8DAY]

this link here could be the beginning of something good for blis.
if this information becomes mainstream and supported by health departments world wide........
then blis has a real opportunity to move forward rapidly.
the question is...... can management utilize this to their advantage?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11192348

.......CLEARLY ANOTHER MAJOR BOOST FOR BLIS!! and your'e right NEOPOLE once mainstream get ahold of this and then start looking hard at what Blis is all about?? Lets just hope management grab this opportunity with both hands......brilliant news for the company. Just 10% of that UK mouthwash market could be worth around $40m!

[Nigel]

.......CLEARLY ANOTHER MAJOR BOOST FOR BLIS!! and your'e right NEOPOLE once mainstream get ahold of this and then start looking hard at what Blis is all about?? Lets just hope management grab this opportunity with both hands......brilliant news for the company. Just 10% of that UK mouthwash market could be worth around $40m!

Blis shared the article on their Facebook page today. Maybe they got the idea here :)

[mrjeems]

Damn. I just bought a bottle of mouthwash yesterday. Probably the first one I've used in years.

[GR8DAY]

Damn. I just bought a bottle of mouthwash yesterday. Probably the first one I've used in years.


......try using it as a degreaser on the car MRJEEMS, sounds like it could have similar properties!!

[simla]

Here's some news for you, Nigel. On January 9, Blis was registered as an exporter for K12 and M18 by Ministry for Primary Industries. https://eatsafe.nzfsa.govt.nz/web/public/approved-food-businesses I think Blis indicated they hoped to have that in December, or maybe that was something different.

What does that mean? Good question! It possibly means that MPI will give certificates to countries like China verifiying the safety of these exported products. Or maybe it doesn't mean that! Anyone know?

Either way, I can't see that that would happen without the factory being completely ready,.

[simla]

I also stumbled across what happened to Gourmet ice cream. It's still there. "We eventually brought the gourmet brand back". Excellent, as it is a great brand. Anybody seen it around? The Blis versions were still selling locally until recently, but haven't seen it since. This site also says they are selling in China, good on them. Very glad to hear that ice cream is still available. http://gourmetnewzealand.co.nz/history.html

[emearg]

Here's some news for you, Nigel. On January 9, Blis was registered as an exporter for K12 and M18 by Ministry for Primary Industries. https://eatsafe.nzfsa.govt.nz/web/public/approved-food-businesses I think Blis indicated they hoped to have that in December, or maybe that was something different.

What does that mean? Good question! It possibly means that MPI will give certificates to countries like China verifiying the safety of these exported products. Or maybe it doesn't mean that! Anyone know?

Either way, I can't see that that would happen without the factory being completely ready,.

They have been registered to export K12 since the early 2000's. I don't know when they became exporters of M18 but no M18 based products would have been made overseas without the registration. Unfortunately this means you can't read too much into your find.

[emearg]

I also stumbled across what happened to Gourmet ice cream. It's still there. "We eventually brought the gourmet brand back". Excellent, as it is a great brand. Anybody seen it around? The Blis versions were still selling locally until recently, but haven't seen it since. This site also says they are selling in China, good on them. Very glad to hear that ice cream is still available. http://gourmetnewzealand.co.nz/history.html

Yes they are still making ice cream but not the sort that contains Blis. They have no immediate plans to produce it either.

Perhaps they don't hold the rights to anymore? Previous announcements from Blis (when they closed down that part of the business and sold it back to Gourmet) would suggest this is correct.

[simla]

They have been registered to export K12 since the early 2000's. I don't know when they became exporters of M18 but no M18 based products would have been made overseas without the registration. Unfortunately this means you can't read too much into your find.

Yes, but this authority is on the "https://eatsafe.nzfsa.govt.nz/" website, and is therefore about exporting food, not just K12 and M18. The list is headed "Approved Food Businesses". Search for "Blis" and you get "Type of Approval", "Exporter" and "Dairy Product Exporter". That's new permission, surely.

The Blis August news update said, "The plant is expected to be commissioned in September with approvals then sought for export of product. The Company will in conjunction with third parties produce and market milk based formulations mainly for Asian markets. These nutritional formulations will include beverages with BLIS K12TM and BLIS M18TM ingredients providing functional foods with BLIS trademarks." https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481

I'm no expert on what this list implies, but it looks promising to my eyes at least.

[simla]

Further, the last half year report said, "Sales will be further boosted when the nutritionals plant is certified for export (expected in December 2013)" https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185697.pdf

It also said, "BLIS has been working with its partners, including Asia Pacific Partners and others to develop and market nutritional formulations TMcontaining BLIS K12 such as beverages, yoghurt powders and other formulations. The formal approval (export accreditation) of our nutritional formulations plant (expected in December) will be a significant milestone in the implementation of this strategy. Upon receipt of export accreditation these products will be marketed in Australasia, Asia and parts of Europe. The Company will also undertake sub-contracting of nutritional formulations. On being accredited it will be the only plant in the South Island of New Zealand approved to process probiotics."

"Upon receipt of export accreditation these products will be marketed in Australasia, Asia and parts of Europe" Emphasis mine, obviously. If their plans haven't changed since then, this should be good news surely.

[simla]

Interesting that it said "Australasia". Perhaps we should keep our eyes open.

[Mule]

Hi simla... they have not yet had the new plant certified for export, email below from Barry:

"The Fonterra issue with China and the subsequent alterations to the Chinese import regulations has thrown the systems into chaos and delayed the approvals for manufactures. All manufacturers are now required to have separate approvals for Chinese entry products.

The process as a result of these issues is delayed but we will announce shortly. We are dressed up but need the final approvals for export of dairy product formulations."

We await the good news...

Cheers

[simla]

Thanks, Mule. "Shortly" still sounds good, but aren't regulations the whole story of Blis so far!

Presumably they are free to go to other countries though, but we haven't heard of any local business partners for that yet. I'm sure they are hard at that too, if not already getting somewhere.

It all remains tantalising. I'm looking forward to finding out what these products actually are.

[GR8DAY]

.......can't wait for that news to be released. All going to add to an interesting , if not exciting year for Blis. The SP is going anywhere yet but I guess any positive announcement soon should change that. 1.9c and cheap at twice the price!!

[GR8DAY]

......A LOT OF TALK THIS MORNING (on the National Programme) ON THE GOVERNMENT SPONSORED STUDY INTO THE CAUSES/EFFECTS and solutions of Rheumatic Fever. Blis is a big part of this study. A positive result for Blis may well take it to another level as this is a global problem affecting mainly lower socio-economic groups. Fingers crossed but I personally think this could be good news pending.

[mrjeems]

Was there a timeline around the study? i.e. when results will be released etc?

[GR8DAY]

Was there a timeline around the study? i.e. when results will be released etc?



......the study has been going on for a while now I believe, so hopefully results out soon......but I could be wrong.......anybody else in the know?? I might do a bit more research into this, Im thinking there could be some very positive implications for BLIS if this pans out as we all hope.

[simla]

You are presumably referring to this ODT article. "Prof Julian Crane, of Otago's Wellington campus, has received $790,319 to lead the study to measure the effect of the oral probiotic, Strep salivarius, to prevent GAS sore throat among a group at high risk of rheumatic fever." http://www.odt.co.nz/campus/university-otago/285881/funding-rheumatic-fever-fight

That radio interview was with another research project also mentioned in that article, studying school clinic methods instead. That study will take at least 10 months, and it seems likely Blis's will take time too. I agree there could be great payback if it comes out, but bear in mind that scientific studies have a way of coming up with results that "need further research", and that official acceptance of new studies is very slow too.

Meanwhile, BLT's shareprice seems to be involved in the (usual!!) battle between people looking for Blis news versus broader market trends. And it really is very difficult to say what range of news Blis could come out with this year. Obviously we are hoping for geniune GRAS sales (at a profit this time, unlike the ice cream trials!) but there really is no knowing how quickly consumers will go for it. A big variable will presumably be how attractive a food it is. I quoted a few posts back the "milk based formulations" including "beverages". Well, chocoloate milk sounds like it would sell, but vanilla probiotic yoghurt might get a slower uptake. We'll see.

[emearg]

You are presumably referring to this ODT article. "Prof Julian Crane, of Otago's Wellington campus, has received $790,319 to lead the study to measure the effect of the oral probiotic, Strep salivarius, to prevent GAS sore throat among a group at high risk of rheumatic fever." http://www.odt.co.nz/campus/university-otago/285881/funding-rheumatic-fever-fight.

Thanks for that link. I hadn't seen that article before.

[Danzx]

$44,051 Worth brought at 10:21 today from overseas. Most traded in a long time, especially in one hit.

[Mule]

$44,051 Worth brought at 10:21 today from overseas. Most traded in a long time, especially in one hit.


Yes big volume but I believe SP is an off market transfer so money may not have been exchanged, just a transfer of shares to someone else.

[GR8DAY]

Yes big volume but I believe SP is an off market transfer so money may not have been exchanged, just a transfer of shares to someone else.


......not sure about that MULE. An off market transfer wouldnt have to be recorded via a brokers site......I do believe money has changed hands on the open market and the price struck also recorded at 2.1c for this Special Placement.??

[hummerh40]

although the 2.1c transaction hasn't been recorded as the high for the day

[GR8DAY]

.......yes good point, maybe that happens at the end of the day? Anyway, in my opinion someone managed to secure a reasonably large parcel at a "gift" price IMHO.......but only time will tell.

[emearg]

Simla...what is new and exciting that you have found and haven't shared with the class yet?

Cheers :)

[simla]

Not much. I'm not really looking a lot, as they have now reached the point where they do or they don't, as far as I can see. So, I'm waiting like everyone else.

The guidance update last year was on Feb 18, so it seems likely we'll get another shot when they finally get the factory approved for full export? Whenever that will be. I'm still moderately hopeful for a profitable half-year either first or second half this coming financial year (or both, better still!) I wonder if they will forecast any actual outcome this year, or maybe too variable?

I don't know what will happen to the share price even if they reach profit, though. HNZ forecast a profit a while ago which would justify a share price of 1.20-1.50 maybe, but has sat around at 80 cents odd for ages, despite reaffirming a couple of times. PEB on the other hand are $1.67 seemingly because the company expects a good profit in a few years time. WDT has about the same market cap as BLT, despite just downgrading their current forecast. All three companies could have good futures, yet their share prices just seem like random numbers to me. Maybe I'm not clever enough to understand the wisdom of the market. XRO is still beyond forecasting, of course, and the market is in there good and strong.

So who will win this year's share price competition? It may all hinge on BLT's share price, or BLT may not even be a minor player! What a range of possible outcomes!

In short, we're all waiting. Hopefully, though.

[simla]

The Italian people just published their research on Blis. A ringing endorsement, surely. http://www.dovepress.com/use-of-streptococcus-salivarius-k12-in-the-prevention-of-streptococcal-peer-reviewed-article-DHPS

"Results [on 61 children with a diagnosis of recurrent oral streptococcal disorders]: The 30 children who completed the 90-day trial with Bactoblis® showed a significant reduction in their episodes of streptococcal pharyngeal infection (>90%), as calculated by comparing the infection rates of the previous year. No difference was observed in the control group. The treated group showed a significant decrease in the incidence (80%) of oral viral infections. Again, there was no difference in the control group. With regard to secondary end points, the number of days under antibiotic treatment of the treated and control groups were 30 and 900 respectively, days under antipyretic treatment 16 and 228, days of absence from school 16 and 228, and days of absence from work 16 and 228. The product was well tolerated by the subjects, with no side effects, and only one individual reported bad product palatability and dropped out.
Conclusion: Prophylactic administration of S. salivarius K12 to children with a history of recurrent oral streptococcal disease resulted in a considerable reduction of episodes of both streptococcal and viral infections and reduced the number of days under antibiotic and/or antipyretic therapy and days of absence from school or work."

[GR8DAY]

.......wow!, ringing endorsement indeed. Surely this has to be picked up now by the powers that be? Those results cannot be ignored and Blis must surely now become the "first-line" of defence against Strep throat and other oral infections. Great News!!

[hilskin]

Thanks simla, great find and such great news for blis as a product. Should be a very interesting year for BLT.

[simla]

Here's a little insight into Stratum's take on Blis. http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Markets/Consumers-gradually-coming-round-to-probiotics-oral-health-potential-and-thinking-beyond-dental-first

"[Blis K12] has performed “very well” in both the US and European markets, said ... Global Marketing Manager for Stratum Nutrition." "we see the multiple brands across various sales channels actively searching for how they can expand their probiotic offerings to include BLIS K12" "currently BLIS K12 can be found in about 2 dozen recognized health products brands within RNH, direct, or professional channels in the US" ( ... and one of the interesting things about the next BLT report will be finding out what has happened to US revenue.)

And, yes, the regulations remain the bug-bear of all of this. "it can be more difficult to communicate in a regulatory-friendly way. We have extraordinary results in multiple clinical settings for BLIS K12 to support ENT immune health, but in the supplement industry the benefits can be challenging to articulate" Of course, we shareholders hope the GRAS approach makes that easier, as generally manufacturers seem much more able to say things there than in supplements, as far as I can see.

Also, contains a discussion of the main alternative to Blis I see on the net, for those unaware of it. A Google search suggests Blis has wider acceptance at this stage, but hard to measure obviously.

And a comment on the difficulties of the market, "A challenge we see with probiotics is that there are still many products on the market that contain strains with no documented benefits and in some cases without strain-specific safety data."

Anyway, they sound keen. They seem to think their business partners are keen. They seem to think it's going pretty well, but it remains a challenge to advertise within all the regulations. As I say, hopefully the GRAS side will change that, but we wait to see that. First we need to hear what's happening at the factory.

[simla]

The Herald this morning had an article on infant formula makers being nervous of a coming Chinese dairy audit in NZ "next month" (ie March) http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11209847

I wonder if this is the inspection Blis are waiting for? No way of knowing. All very hush hush when you look on the government website. Food Safety have password protected news updates (why? good question) But the headlines are public. http://www.foodsafety.govt.nz/whats-new/. They said: 23 December, Timing of China infant formula and dairy systems audit. Then Jan 8, China Dairy product definitions - English and Chinese versions. Jan 13: Possible Postponement of China infant formula and dairy systems audit. Feb 20 : Further information on China infant formula and dairy systems audit - audit details

I don't see why Blis would be especially nervous if they are part of this inspection, as they have only just installed brand new equipment. But it's more regulatory hurdles and delays?

Further, the Food Safety website also says: Feb 4: Dairy Transition Presentation. This mentions a new dairy certification scheme being trialed soon, and expecting to roll out for May 1. Well, the news article referred to dairy manufacturers having to be registered with the Chinese by May 1. Coincidence?

Anyway, this may explain the delay. It may also indicate more weeks of delay to come maybe. Regulations sure have played a big part of the BLT story. The good news in all of that is that it seems to be proceeding reasonably quickly anyway.

This may all have nothing to do with BLT though. Interesting to watch regardless.

[jonu]

Nothing to do with BLT Simla and everything to do with China using the leverage they gained with the Fonterra cockup and to try and regulate their market to product that is manufactured by Chinese interests ie; setting up plants here using our raw materials.

[skid]

Yes ,they play a ruthless game--they will punish economically for political issues as well i have read

[simla]

It's a tricky situation for China, though. Per capita, they have only a quarter of the world average of both farmland and water. You could understand them wanting to secure their supply lines. Plus the entrepreneurs no doubt see a golden future of demand and want in on it, just as people all around the world would do - including most of the people on these share chat groups here who are hoping to profit from any future they can see working well for investors. China is waking and the world is noticing. It's hard to say what suitable arrangements will eventually emerge. All trial and error at this stage, I would have said.

Did you see the article in the weekend about the supermarket thing, that NZ is "always Australia-bashing". I guess it depends on which side of the fence you sit on these sorts of questions!

[emearg]

From memory didn't Blis say they weren't venturing into the infant market? Milk powder products yes, but not for babies? Not sure exactly where I read that though...

Anybody else recall this? Or am I having a moment?

[Bobcat.]

It's a tricky situation for China, though. Per capita, they have only a quarter of the world average of both farmland and water. You could understand them wanting to secure their supply lines.

I was talking to a Bulgarian friend of mine last week who has an interesting view on China and water. He believes that If Ukraine leaves the Russian fold then Russia is seriously weakened (due to Ukrainian's resources and strategic position).

China needs water and as it grows will need it more desperately very soon. Siberia has enormous water reserves which China is eyeing up. With China's growing military and economic power, Russia may not be able to stop China taking them.

BC

[Nigel]

From memory didn't Blis say they weren't venturing into the infant market? Milk powder products yes, but not for babies? Not sure exactly where I read that though...

Anybody else recall this? Or am I having a moment?

You're not going mad (well, not on this point anyway). :)
One of the announcements last year specifically stated "not infant formula" or words to that effect.

[emearg]

You're not going mad (well, not on this point anyway). :)
One of the announcements last year specifically stated "not infant formula" or words to that effect.

Yeah Prof Google found the business update from last years AGM that states this:
* Commissioned in September & then approvals sought for export of these products – NOT for infant formula

* Nutritional formulations - in conjunction with NZ businesses for milkbased BLIS formulations for mainly Asian markets

Cheers
Eme

[simla]

From memory didn't Blis say they weren't venturing into the infant market? Milk powder products yes, but not for babies? Not sure exactly where I read that though...

Anybody else recall this? Or am I having a moment?
Yes, but that news said "China infant formula and dairy systems audit". I was referring to this earlier post on Jan 31: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=458523&viewfull=1#post458523

"...All manufacturers are now required to have separate approvals for Chinese entry products. .. need the final approvals for export of dairy product formulations."

Obviously I am musing whether we may have to wait a few more weeks for more news.

[simla]

Maybe Blis isn't waiting for a Chinese inspection, but waiting for NZ government resources to inspect for a busy compliance regime? http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/237963/chinese-in-nz-over-food-safety-reforms

"the ministry says the [Chinese] audit will survey only a sample of infant formula and dairy manufacturers". However, "Under China's new rules, all dairy and infant formula manufacturers, as well as cold and dry store operators handling dairy products for export there have to be registered with that country's Certification and Accreditation Administration by May."

"But it says the registration process is comprehensive, with more than 350 dairy manufacturers and stores and 18 infant formula manufacturers seeking registration [by May]"

[GR8DAY]

.......so how does BLIS fit into this SIMLA??

[simla]

Um ... that would be the subject of the last several posts, Gr8day! Answer just three posts back from this.

[simla]

Just since I'm watching this Chinese dairy thing, and not related to Blis particularly, I found this Chinese report. "New Zealand made up ... 86 percent, of all [Chinese dairy] imports. (http://www.china.org.cn/business/2014-03/05/content_31678747_2.htm) Wow!

Explains why all the interest in buying into the NZ dairy industry. It's all very understandable being nervous of Chinese money swamping NZ, but the Chinese are undoubtedly also pretty nervous about their food needs. There was a story last month that a half a million Chinese die from smog per year (http://www.theprovince.com/health/pollution+killing+Chinese+year+admits+former+healt h+minister/9363464/story.html). But consider this. If they can't stop that (and we all hope they can), and that rate continued every year, it would still only affect a third of their population after an entire 1000 years. The scale of their population, and their needs, is just simply huge.

I really don't know how this will all be sorted in the end. But it also illustrates why finally entering China could be significant for Blis. That's why I'm following this registration thing.

[Nigel]

When's the next financials/update due?

[simla]

Next annual report due in May, say two months.

However, they gave an update in Feb/Mar for the last two years and I would imagine they will do the same this time.

However, the whole thing hinges on their getting their factory open. Obviously they can forecast quite different things if they know it is open than if they wonder if yet another hurdle is about to be thrown in front of them. The last few posts have been about meeting Chinese requirements, and (as I understand it) the guts of it is they have to be registered by May 1 along with 350 other NZ factories, so big log jam even if no problems.

I rather expect Blis will be bottom of the pile and get registered around May 1 (or even later still, since Blis has no current exports at risk).

So what does Blis do about announcements? Don't know, but I'd be mighty annoyed if I was them sitting there twiddling their thumbs waiting for yet another new regulation to be resolved. The factory was completed in September, 6 months ago.

[Leftfield]

BLT update out










REL: 1336 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited





GENERAL: BLT: BLIS Technologies Limited Update and Guidance





Pursuant to its governance review BLIS Technologies Limited ("BLIS") has


appointed Tony Offen to the newly established role of Deputy Chairman. Mr


Offen who was first appointed to the Board in 2009 will also Chair the Audit


Committee. The Board intends to appoint an additional Director to strengthen


the organisations marketing expertise in due course.





Since reporting interim results in November the Company has substantially


achieved its near term development objectives albeit with some delays.





New laboratory facilities are substantially complete with staff expected to


transfer to the new premises in April.





The nutritional plant has been commissioned and the Food Safety Plan was


approved in February but Registered Manufacturing Plant status remains


pending, the latter being required to allow export of product to target


markets in Asia. Accordingly no meaningful nutritional sales are now


anticipated for the 2014 financial year.





Ingredient sales into the United States have resumed but some shipments have


been delayed due to stringent border control protocols.





The delays resulting from regulatory certification and approval processes


mean that trading revenues for the 2014 financial year are now expected to be


about $1.25 million. This will be about a 12% increase on the $1.121 million


recorded in the 2013 year despite the discontinued operations of BLIS


Functional Foods ("BFF") which contributed $408k to 2013 turnover.





An operating loss of about $1.6 million is now anticipated for the 2014


financial year. A loss of this magnitude will be about 15% lower than the


$1.856 million recorded in 2013. The decision not to capitalise any further


development costs on products that are now in commercial production will


result in about $0.1 million of costs capitalised rather than the $0.467


million capitalised during 2013. Accordingly the pre-capitalisation


operating loss for 2014 will be about 30% lower than that recorded in 2013.





Aggregate revenues are expected to more than double in the 2015 financial


year driven by the commencement of nutritional sales and strong growth in all


remaining product categories.





An operating deficit is anticipated in the first half of the 2015 financial


year with the Company expected to move into operating profit during the


second half of the year.

[simla]

Hey, ask any ye shall receive!

Okay, another mildly dismal result for the year just completed, with a "operating loss" of 1.6m.

BUT .... effectively another 540k revenue on last year anyway (after subtracting ice cream revenue), and American sales resuming (with border control difficulties presently).

BUT REALLY GOOD ... Aggregate revenues are expected to more than double in the 2015 financial year ... and the Company expected to move into operating profit during the second half of the year.

Great.

(As noted, the registration of the factory remains a nuisance.)

[simla]

And ... appoint an additional Director to strengthen the organisations marketing expertise in due course. And appointing a Deputy Chairman suggests girding of loins for action.

[simla]

Um... we did spot the profit word, didn't we? Still a projection only, but lots of data to make it seem plausible now.

[simla]

Don't see why a capital raising. They just cashed up a little while ago and are forecasting rapid growth in sales.

Yes, BLT has accumlated losses. Now let me see ... I think I'm right ... don't they come with accumulated tax losses?

[simla]

Careful, Moosie. You like to be in tune with where the markets going. Reputational risk here?

Blis may yet not succeed, but the odds of success are looking very good now. Cashed up. Marketing contracts into major markets in place. Establishing reputation in the market - there is always new posting on Blis in Google in the last 24 hours, and I recently looked at one product alone over on Amazon that over 200 people had bothered to click on the 5-star rating. Constantly growing revenue with finally (factory approval pending) entree to the nutritional food market. Recent access to Europe and China, already in America and bits of Asia. Successfully made the very expensive transition to another distributor. Not a lot of bad news on the horizon.

All things remain possible, but I'm feeling pretty chuffed.

[Bobcat.]

All things remain possible, but I'm feeling pretty chuffed.

Then why aren't you buying more? Join me at 1.6c

[simla]

Then why aren't you buying more?
Because mathematics is immutable. However, I assure you I hold these shares already.

[simla]

But Moosie, surely you wouldn't be saying all of this without having read the last report, including the section on "Deferred tax balances" on page 26?

[Nigel]

I'm disappointed by the result - was hoping for more progress (maybe just me being impatient again). Shining light is predicted profitability on the horizon. Looks like a few disappointed folk are jumping ship though.

[simla]

Disappointed? After years of waiting they are predicting operating profit six months from now? And presumably/hopefully they will have their factory approved by the May announcement, just a few weeks away, and may even have sent off a shipment?

This is all starting to remind me of how for so long NZ collapsed at cricket when victory was in sight. It's not a wonder we've sold off so many of our assets overseas. They want them, whereas we all "know" we're lucky to get any cash for them at all!

Everybody practice smiling now :)

[blobbles]

I agree with Moosie here, losses, losses losses, small growth (12%) for a company that really needs to be growing at 50%+.

Like I have said before, the problem with this company is not a product problem, they have a quality set of products. It is a marketing/sales failure which is stopping them from delivering.

DISC: Bought at 1c when I saw the potential, sold at 3c when I saw the failure to realise it.

[blobbles]

Oh - I read a report the other day about how New Zealand companies are hopeless at going international and we really need to up our game in this area.

Case in point.

[blobbles]

Disappointed? After years of waiting they are predicting operating profit six months from now? And presumably/hopefully they will have their factory approved by the May announcement, just a few weeks away, and may even have sent off a shipment?

This is all starting to remind me of how for so long NZ collapsed at cricket when victory was in sight. It's not a wonder we've sold off so many of our assets overseas. They want them, whereas we all "know" we're lucky to get any cash for them at all!

Everybody practice smiling now :)

This I will believe when I see it and I think that is what the market sees as well.

I remember a few years ago BLIS was saying they would most likely be in profit the following year... never eventuated... then they went and put themselves in more debt with a big ice cream experiment. You might find simla that there will be "unforeseen operational costs" when they start their factory... resulting in profit guidance being pushed back another year... or two... or three...

[blobbles]

Disappointed? After years of waiting they are predicting operating profit six months from now? And presumably/hopefully they will have their factory approved by the May announcement, just a few weeks away, and may even have sent off a shipment?

This is all starting to remind me of how for so long NZ collapsed at cricket when victory was in sight. It's not a wonder we've sold off so many of our assets overseas. They want them, whereas we all "know" we're lucky to get any cash for them at all!

Everybody practice smiling now :)

This I will believe when I see it and I think that is what the market sees as well.

I remember a few years ago BLIS was saying they would most likely be in profit the following year... never eventuated... then they went and put themselves in more debt with a big ice cream experiment. You might find simla that there will be "unforeseen operational costs" when they start their factory... resulting in profit guidance being pushed back another year... or two... or three...

[simla]

You guys leave me speechless. All the things you say they need to do they have in fact discussed in detail over the last few months, along with quite a bit of evidence that it is happening.

[skid]

Oh - I read a report the other day about how New Zealand companies are hopeless at going international and we really need to up our game in this area.

Case in point.

Yes -get rid of those trashy PEB and Xero as well.....

[blobbles]

You guys leave me speechless. All the things you say they need to do they have in fact discussed in detail over the last few months, along with quite a bit of evidence that it is happening.

And if they do actually succeed, good on them and you for sticking by them and feel free to come on here and give us a big "I TOLD YOU SO NA NA NA NAAAA NAAAA!". But I would recommend you look at the companies history if you do not understand what we are saying.

The whole ice cream debacle was a great case. They bought an icecream factory, put their probiotics into the icecream, started selling to NZ supermarkets and the product was good and seemed to be starting to sell well with the product appearing to also work very well. Then BOOM, gone, and it we were basically told it was all just a big experiment. Big losses, huge write offs and all promises of profit melted away like a container of french vanilla on a hot slab of Hawkes Bay concrete.

That should show you something. The company appears to be run by scientists who like to run their little experiments, when it should mostly be run by business and sales people since about 3 years ago. Unforeseen problems with distributors, poor international positioning and/or commitment (apart from their legal team who seem to be able to get patents pretty well)... continued dilution of shares... until some of their changes and it is reflected in their sales... why should we believe profit guidances when they have missed them in the past? Why should we invest money in a company that has been floundering for what... 10 years? And with similar stories for those 10 years as the one we see right now... and 10 years ago shares were 15c... 5 years ago they were 10c... today they are 1.5c... post GFC most shares have recovered amazingly as you know. A lot of NZ food/medicine/healthcare shares have risen along with this. But BLIS's shares have divided almost by 10. There IS a good reason for this and it comes down to their performance.

[blobbles]

Yes -get rid of those trashy PEB and Xero as well.....

There are always exceptions skid, but for every success you will likely find a trail of a dozen or so failures. With other countries they often bat 1 out of 4, not 1 out of 10.

[simla]

Well, humanity has got where it is by having no end of conflicting opinions at all times about everything. I remain of the opinion that that was a very good annoucnement. By the way, I have followed this company since 2007 and they have never once forecast a coming profit in that time before now that I recall.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Here's a clipping from a post I made back in 2007 (at that point I had been in BLT since 2004):

"Blis have had products in the market place for 5-6 years now and haven't made a penny from them. How is that going to change anytime soon? We have been told countless times that breakeven is expected in the next financial year ..."

Now they are promising profitability just round the corner (yet) again (they haven't dared for the last few years).

So, just a cautionary tale for any newbies who might get carried away by the "p" word.

Good to see you are still here simla, apparently as enthusiastic as ever. I hope your patience and enthusiasm are rewarded one day.

[simla]

Nice to hear from you again, Bobby. Hope all's well.

As you say, they haven't made such projections ... since the current management took over. And now that management has done so, for the first time.

Yes, I'm hoping for reward for my patience. Not much danger of people getting carried away on this group since it is not exactly awash in people agreeing with my point of view!

[blobbles]

http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/2003/07/28/blis-7/

Just one of the earliest I could find with a light search.

[GR8DAY]

Nice to hear from you again, Bobby. Hope all's well.

As you say, they haven't made such projections ... since the current management took over. And now that management has done so, for the first time.

Yes, I'm hoping for reward for my patience. Not much danger of people getting carried away on this group since it is not exactly awash in people agreeing with my point of view!


........hey Im still a believer SIMLA! Fortunately not a long-term holder so I prefer to focus on the more recent history and I still remain hopeful that this leading edge biotech company will succeed on a global scale. I really do think it's just a matter of time and momentum. And I do agree the report is not negative at all .....in fact quite the contrary.

Roll on 2015 I say.........!!

[simla]

Roll on 2015 I say.........!!
Good on you, Gr8Day. And the 2015 year starts in ... just two weeks.

[simla]

Sorry, Moosie, but I've made the mistake of accepting that sort of bet with someone long ago. Not twice.

You carefully define total success as being the only criteria for success, and everything else is implied to be failure.

So, under your bet I lose even if the place has booming sales and the share price is taking off unless they have enough income over the coming twelve months to cover all their costs, including almost inevitable expansion of costs if they are indeed expanding quickly.

Since we already know that the holdups in factory approval are eating into their possible income, and seeing as we know there will be start-up costs this year in moving into the nutritional food area, and as we do not know what write-offs are in the wing from the factory and deals ... etc

If Blis does well this year, no qualifications will be needed. We'll know. I'm happy to just see how it goes.

[Nigel]

The talk is still of 'operational profit' in the next six months - am I right in saying that may not be an actual profit in the next HY or FY report? (e.g. they may start trading with positive cash-flow towards the end of the next 6 month period, but overall for that period they still make a loss). Am I interpreting that correctly?

FYI, I'm still optimistic about the future for these guys. I had (still have) big hopes for the China / Middle East connections who have come on board... just may take a bit of time to see developments in those markets.

[simla]

Hi, Nigel. I don't recall Blis using "operating profit/loss" before, so not sure exactly what they will mean. The internet defines it as earnings before interest and tax, which sounds pretty much like the bottom line from our point of view. In fact, if Blis still has money in the bank then interest should be positive (and tax should be nil if the IRD allows past losses, and positive anyway on losses).

Here's some of what I read their statement to mean. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/248160

They anticipate an operating loss to September 2014, and then "move into operating profit" in the following six months. I'm not getting too excited about exactly what that means as obviously there is no knowing exactly how the new factory product(s) are going to sell, so it's quite high on conjecture, I assume, although they may have some forward orders in their pockets. We don't know if they anticipate the first half loss will exceed the second half profit (assuming either of those even come to pass) and therefore whether they hope for a full year profit or not. I imagine they aren't sure either. We also don't know what write-offs are around from this recent factory activity.

Some detail in the announcement was perhaps not entirely transparent in it's wording. Trading revenue last year, FY2013, (excluding ice cream) was about 700k. You will I'm sure recall how rocky things got with revenue while Blis changed distributors.This last year (FY2014) apparently it was up to 1250k, an 80% increase by my calculations, and despite them also saying some US shipments were held back due to (yet more new) regulations around border control there. All that is in paragraphs 5 and 6 of that announcement.

Further, the projected loss this year, FY2014, includes about 350k in extra write offs due to a change in accounting policies about development capitilisation. I think the 350k must be real expenditure from FY2014, but in comparing apples with apples the loss would be 1.35m compared to last year's 1.85m. This anyway was impacted by two events. Firstly, the US sales were less than they would have been except for the border problems. And secondly, Blis finished the factory six months ago and the fact it has not been signed off due to red tape has presumably cost the company quite a bit of sales revenue. This from paragraphs 4,5, and 7.

They talk of strong growth anticipated in all existing product sectors, paragraph 8. We don't know what they base that on. Again, I would expect they must have some indication of forward orders, and presumably it is also based on growth in sales figures they are already seeing.

Yes, we shareholders cannot possibly know what will happen next. All we can say from that announcement is that they are pretty hopeful, enough to come into print to say they hope for profit, which the current management have not done before to my knowledge.

I'm not expecting people to jump and down with joy over this announcement. Each will read it differently. But for me it is another in a line of consistently positive announcements for over a year now, and I do not understand why that consistency is being devalued as just "more of the same". Me, I'm very hopeful after that announcement, but I recognise that nothing is in the bag yet too, so I'll be a whole lot happier when I hear of actual profit, just like anyone else. Happily at least 3 announcements are due in the next 8 months: May report, July (?) AGM and Nov report.

[croesus]

In defense of Moosie... he pays up with a smile.

Blobbles... best post I have read on the the S/T forum in a long time.

[GR8DAY]

.....SIMLA IVE GOT TO CONGRATULATE YOU ON YOUR (oops caps lock off) thoroughly balanced and unbiased interpretation of things. You clearly have an excellent handle on all things BLIS related and I really enjoy reading your thoughtful ramblings. It is very apparent that many contributors to this discussion do NOT have such a specialized understanding (myself included) but choose to add nothing but negativity based on ancient history!! I personally prefer to look forward in a balanced fashion and like you believe BLIS will deliver a sustainable and profitable business in the not too distant future.(lets say a year or 2?) I continue to put my money where my mouth is and hope to be holding 5m shares before the years out.

[Mule]

I'm with Simla and Gr8day on this one, their products are definitely gaining more traction in the market which is also apparent in the update. I don't really care about what happened 2, 5 or 10 years ago, I'm hooked on the product at the moment. I've been using the daily throat guard for 8 months now and haven't had a sore throat since which I find incredible (I usually have several a year), if I can make it through winter without an infection then I'll be truly AMAZED. I'm actually a little bit in disbelief as to why I haven't had an infection yet. Has anyone else had positive results? Or anyone stopped using their products because of poor results?

[Harvey Specter]

So just because it is negativity it is disregarded? That's an unfair assessment, especially considering we have cited the companies ongoing promoses of a profit over a decade now...Always a historian. XRO made promises of profits at one stage too. ;)

While in some cases, what has happened in the past is a good indicator for the future, that is not always the case. Simla is of the view they have turned the corner and are executing to plan. So, do you disagree that their plan will not be profitable, or do you disagree that they are not executing to plan?

[simla]

why should we believe profit guidances when they have missed them in the past?

For accuracy, I went back and looked at the half and full year announcements. Here are their predictions of profit, as far as I could find them.

2001 - none
2002 - none
2003 - "predicting a maiden profit in 2005" (Matches your post of " Just one of the earliest I could find with a light search" The ONLY one!
2004 - none
2005 - none
2006 - none
2007 - none
2008 - none
2009 - none
2010 - none
2011 - none
2012 - none
2013 - October, "are expected to deliver profits in the foreseeable future."
2014 - " expected to move into operating profit during the second half of [FY2015]"

Now, I didn''t exhaustively search every word they published, just looked at the half and full year announcements. Contrary information welcome. But I'm not seeing a history of failed predictions there. Obviously they were too optimistic in 2003, otherwise nothing that I could find.

[Harvey Specter]

The market will keep punishing BLT until it starts walking the walk it talks about just like RAK and WDT.I think what Simla is saying is they are starting to execute - they have a plan in place to which you can measure against. They have highlighted a few delays but they are minor and are external to them (approvals etc where they might not have had much control).

So if you want to get in early, start researching now. NO doubt you will say plenty other investments out there and you are correct.

Disc: For the record, I do hold a small amount.

[simla]

So if you want to get in early, start researching now.
Totally agree with doing your own research. I am never recommending Blis. I come here to discuss publicly available information to assist with my own decisions. That's why I get frustrated when I get unfocussed replies.

If anyone likes anything I have to say, then - yes, absolutely - that simply means it's time to start your own research, not just take my views as gospel. I have never ever yet said Blis is risk free or a dead cert.

[GR8DAY]

So just because it is negativity it is disregarded? That's an unfair assessment, especially considering we have cited the companies ongoing promoses of a profit over a decade now...


.....if you keep looking backwards like that for much longer MOOSIE all your going to end up with is a sore neck!! (but who knows, BLIS could possibly fix that also?)

[pierre]

.....if you keep looking backwards like that for much longer MOOSIE all your going to end up with is a sore neck!! (but who knows, BLIS could possibly fix that also?)

It's always useful to know where you've come from but better to be focused on the road ahead. I'm confident that's what the BLT team is doing and their roadmap seems quite clearly defined.

As with most trips there are always a few bumps in the road and an occasional detour to navigate but for the PATIENT traveller there will be good rewards ahead.

BLT might have been on a long and onerous journey but profitable trading is more clearly in sight now than it has been for many years.

DISC: Already hold 3m shares at average 1.3c but if the price drops any lower than 1.7 I'll be topping up again. The potential for a significant percentage gain in the next 12 months is pretty appealing.

[skid]

There are always exceptions skid, but for every success you will likely find a trail of a dozen or so failures. With other countries they often bat 1 out of 4, not 1 out of 10.

My point is (although rather sarcastic,I admit),If these other companies can pull it off--why cant Bliss?
I think we may be in agreement in general on this issue--

[simla]

Thanks to all for all the posts so far. Hopefully there will be more in the weekend.

I really enjoy a good argy-bargy like this. Vigorous statements of opposing views make it much easier for me to gain confidence in a viewpoint. I hope it is the same for others. I remain pretty optimistic, but I have taken on board the comments about how long things take with Blis, and Gr8Day raises an interesting point over just how long before this benefits shareholders even if it plays out as suggested in the short term (no idea, is my answer!)

I might wonder out loud why some of you guys are so much more positive about PEB. Their $100 million "target" is set for 2018./19, long after the company listed in 2003. Personally I'm pleased for both PEB and BLT.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Chairman's AGM Address 01/08/07: "The priority for the Company is to achieve profitability through the development of key international partnerships."
Half-year announcement 27/11/07: ".. the company is still on track to achieve a breakeven position at year-end ..."

And, from memory, there were other instances where they talked about breakeven in the near future, achieving profitability in the near future, or becoming cash-flow positive in the near future.

Also of possible interest for those waiting for imminent entry into the chinese market: "We have recently received an order for a trial shipment to Malaysia, and announced an agreement with a partner for the Chinese market" - quoted from the Chairman's Interim Report for the six months to ......... 30/09/2003.

So don't hold your breath.

[simla]

Yes, there were lots of mentions of trying to "achieve profitability", but that isn't any sort of forecast of doing so. But I missed the "breakeven" remark, so thanks for that, Bobby.

[Bobby_Fischer]

2004 Annual Report, Operations Report, under Financial Results: "... the company currently believes it has sufficient cash reserves to carry it forward until the business becomes cashflow positive".

2005 Annual Report, Operations Report, under Financial Results: "..., but believes that it has sufficient cash reserves to carry it forward until the business becomes cashflow positive".

[Longhaul]

2004 Annual Report, Operations Report, under Financial Results: "... the company currently believes it has sufficient cash reserves to carry it forward until the business becomes cashflow positive".

2005 Annual Report, Operations Report, under Financial Results: "..., but believes that it has sufficient cash reserves to carry it forward until the business becomes cashflow positive".

Well at least we know they are pretty good at using "Copy" and "Paste" after 14 years.

[Rego55]

I'm a very small player in the Blis market and was a little disappointed about what was said in the report. One of the main things for me however is that I use the product daily and really appreciate what it does. I also tell all I know about it (without being too much of a knob) and encourage the use during winter. I reckon all shareholders have to be their own little marketing companies on Blis' behalf, albeit slightly selfishly, as if the company has marketing shortcomings then at least we can do what we can to try to make up for this.

[simla]

Sooooooo, it was all just a joke then? This isn't a real company then, it's just a loss making entity for eternity? Your comment astounds me simla...


Their $100 million "target" is set for 2018./19, long after the company listed in 2003.

No, not eternity, just quite a few years, like PEB and ATM (listed 2004).

There were lots of comments about recognising the objective of making a profit. That isn't making projections. However, thanks to Bobby, as I didn't look hard enough at statements on cashflow projections. Nevertheless, I don't really think saying they think they have enough cash is right up there with predicting a profit.

Nevertheless, Bobby's quotes do make it clear that the company did not realise the long slog they had ahead of them at the beginning. Point taken.

[simla]

Moosie, I think the main thing we disagree on is that you expect things to happen faster than I do. When you get to be old like me, you'll have had a lot of experience of things taking longer than you thought they would. For example, they've been trying to get people to react to climate change for two or three decades now, but did you know that fully two-thirds of the gases have been released into the atmosphere AFTER they started trying to do that? Things just take time. Usually quite a bit of it.

[blobbles]

Thanks to all for all the posts so far. Hopefully there will be more in the weekend.

I really enjoy a good argy-bargy like this. Vigorous statements of opposing views make it much easier for me to gain confidence in a viewpoint. I hope it is the same for others. I remain pretty optimistic, but I have taken on board the comments about how long things take with Blis, and Gr8Day raises an interesting point over just how long before this benefits shareholders even if it plays out as suggested in the short term (no idea, is my answer!)

I might wonder out loud why some of you guys are so much more positive about PEB. Their $100 million "target" is set for 2018./19, long after the company listed in 2003. Personally I'm pleased for both PEB and BLT.

Yes and I can see your point simla and I do hope they have turned BLT around with their current plan and partners overseas. But after seeing them go through this umpteen times, I am still not convinced the company is on track and only will be convinced now when I see it. You can only have a carrot dangled in front of you so many times before you realise maybe you will never reach it!

PEB is a different case due to it having a management team that appears to achieve everything they have said. They have never promised profitability before and still have not really talked about it yet, but they have successfully built the science and commercialised the product step by step with very positive information along the way. That builds confidence. If the management quality changes, expect the SP to plummet. They also have a product that is more directly marketable in terms of health. It should be clear the difference between a product that will lower the chance of a person getting sick vs another that will identify life threatening ailments. As such its hard to compare them, but I believe PEB has a superior product in this regard as (if they are able to enter the market in a big way) the market for their product will be very inelastic.

When investing in companies like these I like to remember that I am investing in a formulae = quality of the product x quality of the management x anomalous external risk factors. If both of the first two are high the rewards can be enormous as long as the third doesn't torpedo them. If one of these factors is zero however, the market valuation of the company will also be zero, or close to. PEB so far have the first two sorted, based on information to date. BLT has only one of these sorted, based on information to date.

[simla]

Hmm, understand you point. But the reasoning is slightly circular in as much as you say the management can't deliver as they haven't got a profit yet, and then you predict the profit isn't coming becuase the management haven't delivered one before.

I think it's a great pity the company can't tell us more about what happened a couple of years ago when promising leads in America suddenly weren't going very fast. Obviously this was something to do with the upheaval of changing distributors, but it still makes it very hard for us to take any lesson from it. Equally, you can understand a company not wanting to say much about other organisations.

As to the current situation, I think it probably depends on how much progress is being made outside of the Chinese side. If the Chinese approval comes though, things will probably move along, but if delays move in there, then how much momentum is going on elsewhere in Asia, and in Europe and America? We know things are growing steadily, but is it enough to propel to profit this year if China continues to be long process? And do we need the Chinese approval to progress GRAS product elsewhere?

I don't know. Clearly things are picking up again, but at what rate? Don't know.

[False Profit]

Have I missed the press release or something? The price has a lead weight attached over the past few days. Recovering a little. I've half a mind to climb on board at these prices but, as the history shows, they were at 15c a few years ago.

What I'm getting from these posts is = great product but issues with management.

[Harvey Specter]

Ya missed the market update. Go to announcements bar through your broker and look up the bad news ;)The bad news was minimal (and predominatly out of their control) - it just lacked good news.

[Bobcat.]

I'm in again having purchased a small parcel @1.6 but did hesitate...not because of any doubts about the value of their products (I am a satisfied customer), and not entirely because of ongoing concerns with their marketing and sales. My technical analysis of the US Equity charts has made me very cautious these past three days w.r.t. Equity markets in general.

I'm anticipating a significant drop in the DOW and S&P500 later this week (could be wrong of course but that's how I'm reading it), and so with that in mind I'm reducing the size of my nzx and asx portfolios. IMO, BLT is likely to be less affected than most NZ stocks, and so for now I'll continue to hold.

BC

[simla]

I've realised that the May 1 deadline for Chinese dairy registration is world wide, not just for NZ. And that's in 6 weeks. The good news then would be that they will need to have enough of it completed not to interrupt the flow into China for consumption, but the bad news could be that it's a big ask. My guess is that the Chinese will want to avoid criticism by efficiently meeting their own deadline, but who knows. Also, logic would suggest that NZ can now be processed quickly since the auditors left NZ a few days ago according to the Herald.

I see no reason to expect the Blis factory will fail to meet standards, so logic still stands on the side of registration completing within 6 weeks, presumably followed by product flow. The next report is due within a few weeks of that anyway, registration or not. So close and yet so far ...

[simla]

The Chinese President very publicly endorsed trade with NZ today during Key's visit. You'd think that would have to nudge things along, speed-wise. Especially since the entire NZ-China trade would seem set to stop dead in the water in just a few weeks if this process is not completed efficiently.

[GR8DAY]

........yep thinking the same SIMLA. Things may soon fall into place re: CHINA..........high hopes.

[Bobcat.]

Let's not underestimate this. The Chinese Premier endorsing anything publicly gets many cogs working in China. And why not? NZ is not a political threat, we have good product and a clean image, and genuinely want a win-win trading arrangement with China. Strategically, China has wanted to get a foothold in the South Pacific for decades, and has for several years now been investing more (money and people) into NZ. They also want to be seen in a favourable and admirable light by the West.

I'm interested in finding out what concessions John Key has made on behalf of NZ'ers in order to secure this increased level of Chinese favouritism. Not freer access to own NZ property I'm hoping. If that gets any easier, and China get really interested in owning more of this precious jewel we call home, then we risk selling out (long term) our land in return for trading revenue that could be cut short at any time by an offshore political whim.

BC

[Rego55]

Just called BLIS to sort out sending some K12 to a friend in Australia and couldn't get reception. I had to leave a message. What the hell is going on there? Their general enquiries phone line is a shambles. After reading out "If you want to get hold of Don press 3" for about 5 or 6 people it invites you to press 1 for General Enquiries. With all due respect to the person who made the message - they don't exactly sound very dynamic at all and it just leaves a very bad taste in the mouth as a shareholder. These guys need to sharpen their act up up. If they are planning to supply countries around the world, they need to get their front of house sorted and actually start looking like they mean business. Get a bit of bloody commercial nous into proceedings. I'm a bit angry about it to be frank. I'll be letting them know my feelings!

[Bobcat.]

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-deal-links-small-nz-185309856.html

This would have to help. Ali Baba has a greater number of customers than e-bay and amazon combined - that is massive.

I wonder if BLT management are even aware of it.

Edit: I've just now emailed BLT mgmt to suggest they look into making use of this Web Giant, if they haven't already done so.

[GR8DAY]

[QUOTE=Bobcat.;469189]http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-deal-links-small-nz-185309856.html

This would have to help. Ali Baba has a greater number of customers than e-bay and amazon combined - that is massive.

I wonder if BLT management are even aware of it.




GOOD WORK BC!.............i will be doing the same and similar.......every bit must help.

[Bobcat.]

BLT's response from Mukesh Kumar:

"Thank you

I have forwarded your email to Dr Barry Richardson (CEO).

Mukesh."

I suggest others interested email Dr Richardson directly. I'm assuming his email address is Barry.Richardson@blis.co.nz

[simla]

Bobcat, I see your point, but maybe Blis wouldn't think it so obvious to spend years forming relationships in China and then getting a deal through the door, only to turn around and try to undercut that through direct net listings competing with that relationship?

[Bobcat.]

Simla - you are right but there is an opportunity cost that BLT must consider when deciding not to use Ali Baba. Hopefully it will be outweighed by the revenue and other benefits coming from their preferred distributor model. Below is their CEO's reply to my earlier email:

"Thanks for your email.
We are well aware of Ali Baba.
However, we have spent considerable time working with our distributor in China to identify a significant, quality distributor who to be successful must invest heavily in the market.

If we compete directly with them it is not going to be well received.

Regards

Barry Richardson"

[simla]

"significant, quality distributor" would seem pretty fair comment, though. And you read again and again about how you need relationships in China to get anywhere.

And listing on a huge site also has the problem that you are one of a huge number of offers, too. As a parallel, I knew a NZ Chinese who decided to go and have a great career in China because the opportunities were enormous. They visited for a bit and quickly realised that there were one or two other people over there who had the same idea! They came back to NZ after deciding that a huge opportunity also attracts huge competition.

[Bobcat.]

I've decided to press the CEO a bit further to see what he is willing and able to disclose re Bliss's profit forecast and timing:

"Thank you Barry for your decent response. I will continue to hold BLT, although it is fair to say that following your recent financial report there are a few other investors I correspond with who have lost heart seeing yet another lot of promises from Bliss about trying to 'achieve profitability' but little progress (for several years now) in that regard.

Is the end of this May a reasonable time-frame to expect progress accessing, distributing and selling profitably into China? Or is it more likely to be the 2nd half of this year? What does your business plan forecast?

Kind regards,"

[simla]

Bobcat, you've started bandying someone's name around in public. I understand you to be implying you are doing it in the name of research. I can't see the connection.

[clip]

His name is publically available on the Blis site http://blis.co.nz/about-blis (the first name listed, being the CEO) I don't think there's much of a problem saying 'I had a reply from the CEO ', if anybody really wanted to know who he was they could easily look it up anyway

[simla]

My concern is that I've never seen a name used publicly to anyone's advantage. It's one thing to say a company is doing well or badly at the moment, but once you start talking about people that way it quickly becomes personal. Even if you start out positive, the assumption that a reputation is open slather then works in both directions. Princess Diana was golden girl for a long time, but then everybody felt free to criticise at length. Some of NZ's golden up-and-coming companies at the moment are having their CEO names bandied around, but what will happen to those names if misfortune should strike those companies?

A person only has a whole-of-lifetime name, and I don't feel comfortable bandying it about. I don't know about you, but I'm not actually perfect and I've never met anyone who is.

[Bobcat.]

If I were libellous in my reference to the CEO that would be a different matter, Simla, but I'm have not been. I've been respectful in my communications with him, and it's no secret as to who he is.

If there was anything in Dr Richardson's emails to me that I considered he was sharing confidentially (I doubt there would be) then I would not be posting it on ST. There has been no breach of confidence, nothing libellous, and nothing that any other investor could not glean themselves from the company should they be bothered to ask. I'm struggling to understand your issue.

[simla]

Thanks, Bobcat. I'm just uncomfortable because I've noticed that when one person starts using a name, others start using the name, and then it's only a matter of time before people feel free to discuss someone's worth. I'm just saying something early in the peace, as I'd hate this group to slowly drift in that direction, that's all.

Hey, if you get news, that's great. News is always desirable!

[simla]

Blis closed at 1.5 cents. The odd thing is that there is fairly steady turnover. But, hey, we can get a 20% return this year if the thing climbs to 1.8 cents!

If I was Blis and waiting for this registration to break it's long silence, I'd be getting on with Europe and elsewhere, so you'd think they may be doing that. (And if this is slow for Blis, just imagine what it's like being an infant formula manufacturer waiting to see where you stand...)

And with money in the bank, perhaps there is also progress on Q24, and maybe pets? The September report forecast growth regardless of the factory opening, so we hope that is continuing. It also said "meaningful sales" to the US should resume by year end (2013) due to previous issues being resolved. They also talked of "developing new BLIS M18 lozenge and gum products for ASEAN IV countries (Malaysia region)".

I think it is difficult for us shareholders in not knowing how much of their optimistic forecast is built on the factory products, and how much is anyway expected from growth of existing ingredient sales. We know they see the ingredient sales picking up nicely, but we do not know if that is of a scale to push Blis forward into profit, or whether we are just waiting for GRAS sales for that.

[croesus]

Getting very close to Mr Croesus' call price...

Well actually Mr Moosie, I am about to change that call price to a lower one.... seems to be run by boffins who have little idea of the real world.. may that seem harsh.. one just has to look at the last 5 years.

Simla. hats off to you... your optimism is legendary... kaipai the good

[False Profit]

I was considering off setting the loss I'm seeing by adding to my existing shares at these prices. Or is the knife still falling? I've enough faith in the product to set this one aside for the Buffett 10 years' principle.

Saying that...it makes an ugly dent in my, otherwise pleasant looking portfolio...

[goldfish]

Just called BLIS to sort out sending some K12 to a friend in Australia and couldn't get reception. I had to leave a message. What the hell is going on there? Their general enquiries phone line is a shambles. After reading out "If you want to get hold of Don press 3" for about 5 or 6 people it invites you to press 1 for General Enquiries. With all due respect to the person who made the message - they don't exactly sound very dynamic at all and it just leaves a very bad taste in the mouth as a shareholder. These guys need to sharpen their act up up. If they are planning to supply countries around the world, they need to get their front of house sorted and actually start looking like they mean business. Get a bit of bloody commercial nous into proceedings. I'm a bit angry about it to be frank. I'll be letting them know my feelings!

Well this doesnt sound good at all, and screams warning to me...why have all these BLT bulls not commented on this.

[simla]

Well this doesnt sound good at all, and screams warning to me...why have all these BLT bulls not commented on this.

If you are referring to me as a BLT bull, then I'd instead say I've been cautiously optimistic most of the time. I've always, always, referred to the uncertainty of the outcome.

But I haven't commented on that incident myself because:

1. I'm not responsible for running the company, I'm just an investor.
2. Nobody rings anybody any more anyway, so I don't think it has crippled the company. Yes, that sort of thing is INCREDIBLY irritating, but I don't think it will have affected a lot of people.
3. Like it goes better when you ring big companies like Telecom, your bank, whatever? No, everybody grits their teeth before attempting that.
4. They are a small company making do with limited resources. I'm sure it will change faster if they get the money.

Sorry, not really sure what you're looking for there. If this represented widespread failure, that would be a worry. It seems more likely to me that they have to prioritise their use of resource and they don't get a lot of land line phone calls.

[simla]

Simla. hats off to you... your optimism is legendary... kaipai the good

Thanks, Croesus (I think!) To explain my optimism, this is the hypothesis I work from here. I do NOT claim to be correct, merely saying what I work from if anyone's interested.


New plan, started 2007?, makes sense to me. This has been incredibly difficult to implement, due to the scale of the plan, the limited resources, and a staggeringly hostile legal world for probiotics ever since the plan was launched. Neverthless, it is substantially on track where I'm sitting. I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.
The change of distributor, which started in early 2009/10?, was a hugely difficult exercise. It seems to have cost a lot of money and lost revenue, but the company must have felt it was worth it. Certainly the signs are now gathering of good impetus and I'm inclined to think it was a good idea. I suspect the company itself did not realise quite what a long protracted affair it would be, but I imagine they are pleased anyway as they usually like to take the right long term decisions (or so it seems.) In particular, I think many naysayers have not correctly factored in this delay. (I have heard elsewhere that almost all startups change distributors, because the distributors seldom realise how serious their clients are, and that the changeover is always really hard. Nothing new here then?)
Accordingly, I have reasonable hopes that revenue will pick up more quickly now that the changeover is complete. Company forecasts so far support that view.
Events with the share price a couple of years ago were quite unfortunate for subsequent capital raising, but also great for shareholders who persisted and managed to buy in cheaply afterwards - IF it pays off!
Regulations have played merry hell with Blis. It's like the Gods are throwing thunderbolts at Blis for sport. Every time they move, someone decides to "tighten" regulations. This is sheer bad luck. Recent examples have been whatever the problem was shipping to America, and this huge fuss over Chinese dairy exports. To Blis's enormous credit, they have put their chins down on every single one of these and buggered on.
GRAS sales promise to be profitable. You can see this by comparing the number of people in health supplement shops with the number in supermarkets. The company has occasionally said that "it's future was in dairy". It's unfortunate that the ice cream wasn't selling at a profit, but it certainly showed that money awaits. They sold twice the revenue in NZ on a new product through ice cream than they did on the NZ pill sales. And the company actually did not declare the exercise a disaster, but said they needed to invest capital to make a profit, and they would prefer doing it in other food types, which we are now seeing. I am pretty convinced that the whole upcoming Asia GRAS business is heavily built on the evidence gained from the ice cream, but I have no proof of that.
If GRAS works we're away (I hope!), otherwise whole thing looking more difficult and slow growing. So I'm really interested to see what happens in the coming year. But ingredient sales are growing too, so maybe sunshine around every corner? Who knows.
Potential other products are underestimated by some, I believe.
The mix of big share holders makes a takeover difficult (I believe), so existing shareholders stand to see the results more than happens with some companies perhaps? I'm no expert though.
The team is pretty strong if you ask me. As the Blis site says, "[The CEO's] experience in international marketing and in the management of business operations includes commercialising technology driven businesses within the New Zealand Dairy Board, establishing Tatua Co-Op Dairy Co. as a highly profitable specialist company and in transforming Westland Milk Products from a dairy company marketing commodity products into an International Nutritional Company." I've searched on the Westland side and it's one of the main reasons I see this working. For example, here's a 2003 article (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9d2cef6f/two-honoured-while-norgate-shown-the-door.html), "While [Fonterra chap] was ousted from Fonterra Co-operative Group last week, the dairy industry honoured his two highest-ranking competitors. Tatua chief executive Mike Matthews and Westland's Barry Richardson received the industry's leading accolades while surrounded by Fonterra middle management at a Rotorua conference." And don't get me started on the strength of Blis's scientific abilities! And did you know that PEB and BLT share a director, so there is cross fertilisation there too? Add to that that Blis is backed by some pretty successful people.


Short version: The plan makes sense to me, although it is ambitious. If you delve into the detail of the last 2 or 3 years, it seems to me the company remains more or less on track, if definitely delayed by events. And I do think they know what they are doing. Hey, that's all just my view though.



This is how BLT operates and it's been going on for so long its normal

What I don't agree with:


I understand the bitterness about early years, as apparently expectations were high. But lots of other startups then have taken as long (eg. PEB, ATM) and only a few shareholders have openly admitted that they were just as optimistic as the early management.
Shareprice matters? Lots of people seem to think things are going well when the share price goes up, or badly when it goes down (like now). But I can't see the point as little of the company's future rests on the share price, except as it affects capital raising, or widespread public perception, or the possibility of takeover. Just my view though. I understand the other view that the market "always knows".
The past dictates that this cannot work. I've explained my view on some of the past above, and IF that is a fair reading, then so far no walls have been built confining Blis's future. In my view, anyway.
Boffins, just a bunch of scientists in Dunedin, etc. Actually, only 2 of the 5 Board members have science backgrounds, as I read it. The CEO does too from a long time ago, but has been a manager for a very long time. There is a small science bias, as befits a tech company, but this is not "just a bunch of scientists", as some occasionally like to say or imply. Easy to say for effect, just not true. And anyway, scientists are pretty intelligent people generally. Edison was a hugely successful business man, for instance.
Because they have limited resources, it can't work. No, I'd say it will just take time. The web site seems pretty good to me now, for example.


All just my view. For counter arguments to any of the above, read previous posts or new ones undoubtedly coming!

[Harvey Specter]

For those that have always wanted to try Blis:

(get 10% off at www.blis.co.nz (http://www.blis.co.nz/) using code 'blis10')

Note: I received this by email. I am not associated with the company in any way other than a small shareholder.

[GR8DAY]

Thanks, Croesus (I think!) To explain my optimism, this is the hypothesis I work from here. I do NOT claim to be correct, merely saying what I work from if anyone's interested.


New plan, started 2007?, makes sense to me. This has been incredibly difficult to implement, due to the scale of the plan, the limited resources, and a staggeringly hostile legal world for probiotics ever since the plan was launched. Neverthless, it is substantially on track where I'm sitting. I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.
The change of distributor, which started in early 2009/10?, was a hugely difficult exercise. It seems to have cost a lot of money and lost revenue, but the company must have felt it was worth it. Certainly the signs are now gathering of good impetus and I'm inclined to think it was a good idea. I suspect the company itself did not realise quite what a long protracted affair it would be, but I imagine they are pleased anyway as they usually like to take the right long term decisions (or so it seems.) In particular, I think many naysayers have not correctly factored in this delay. (I have heard elsewhere that almost all startups change distributors, because the distributors seldom realise how serious their clients are, and that the changeover is always really hard. Nothing new here then?)
Accordingly, I have reasonable hopes that revenue will pick up more quickly now that the changeover is complete. Company forecasts so far support that view.
Events with the share price a couple of years ago were quite unfortunate for subsequent capital raising, but also great for shareholders who persisted and managed to buy in cheaply afterwards - IF it pays off!
Regulations have played merry hell with Blis. It's like the Gods are throwing thunderbolts at Blis for sport. Every time they move, someone decides to "tighten" regulations. This is sheer bad luck. Recent examples have been whatever the problem was shipping to America, and this huge fuss over Chinese dairy exports. To Blis's enormous credit, they have put their chins down on every single one of these and buggered on.
GRAS sales promise to be profitable. You can see this by comparing the number of people in health supplement shops with the number in supermarkets. The company has occasionally said that "it's future was in dairy". It's unfortunate that the ice cream wasn't selling at a profit, but it certainly showed that money awaits. They sold twice the revenue in NZ on a new product through ice cream than they did on the NZ pill sales. And the company actually did not declare the exercise a disaster, but said they needed to invest capital to make a profit, and they would prefer doing it in other food types, which we are now seeing. I am pretty convinced that the whole upcoming Asia GRAS business is heavily built on the evidence gained from the ice cream, but I have no proof of that.
If GRAS works we're away (I hope!), otherwise whole thing looking more difficult and slow growing. So I'm really interested to see what happens in the coming year. But ingredient sales are growing too, so maybe sunshine around every corner? Who knows.
Potential other products are underestimated by some, I believe.
The mix of big share holders makes a takeover difficult (I believe), so existing shareholders stand to see the results more than happens with some companies perhaps? I'm no expert though.
The team is pretty strong if you ask me. As the Blis site says, "[The CEO's] experience in international marketing and in the management of business operations includes commercialising technology driven businesses within the New Zealand Dairy Board, establishing Tatua Co-Op Dairy Co. as a highly profitable specialist company and in transforming Westland Milk Products from a dairy company marketing commodity products into an International Nutritional Company." I've searched on the Westland side and it's one of the main reasons I see this working. For example, here's a 2003 article (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9d2cef6f/two-honoured-while-norgate-shown-the-door.html), "While [Fonterra chap] was ousted from Fonterra Co-operative Group last week, the dairy industry honoured his two highest-ranking competitors. Tatua chief executive Mike Matthews and Westland's Barry Richardson received the industry's leading accolades while surrounded by Fonterra middle management at a Rotorua conference." And don't get me started on the strength of Blis's scientific abilities! And did you know that PEB and BLT share a director, so there is cross fertilisation there too? Add to that that Blis is backed by some pretty successful people.


Short version: The plan makes sense to me, although it is ambitious. If you delve into the detail of the last 2 or 3 years, it seems to me the company remains more or less on track, if definitely delayed by events. And I do think they know what they are doing. Hey, that's all just my view though.




What I don't agree with:


I understand the bitterness about early years, as apparently expectations were high. But lots of other startups then have taken as long (eg. PEB, ATM) and only a few shareholders have openly admitted that they were just as optimistic as the early management.
Shareprice matters? Lots of people seem to think things are going well when the share price goes up, or badly when it goes down (like now). But I can't see the point as little of the company's future rests on the share price, except as it affects capital raising, or widespread public perception, or the possibility of takeover. Just my view though. I understand the other view that the market "always knows".
The past dictates that this cannot work. I've explained my view on some of the past above, and IF that is a fair reading, then so far no walls have been built confining Blis's future. In my view, anyway.
Boffins, just a bunch of scientists in Dunedin, etc. Actually, only 2 of the 5 Board members have science backgrounds, as I read it. The CEO does too from a long time ago, but has been a manager for a very long time. There is a small science bias, as befits a tech company, but this is not "just a bunch of scientists", as some occasionally like to say or imply. Easy to say for effect, just not true. And anyway, scientists are pretty intelligent people generally. Edison was a hugely successful business man, for instance.
Because they have limited resources, it can't work. No, I'd say it will just take time. The web site seems pretty good to me now, for example.


All just my view. For counter arguments to any of the above, read previous posts or new ones undoubtedly coming!


......JUST BRILLIANT SIMLA!!....once again many thanks for the effort you put into your research and your willingness to share. I really dont think "MR. Market" has the foggiest notion of whats going on with BLIS at the moment. I see it as highly undervalued and a tripling in price over the next year or two would not surprise me one iota??

[youngatheart]

For those that have always wanted to try Blis:

(get 10% off at www.blis.co.nz (http://www.blis.co.nz/) using code 'blis10')

Note: I received this by email. I am not associated with the company in any way other than a small shareholder.

Thanks Harvey,
Have ordered the special deal item and will road test it.

[simla]

I see it as highly undervalued
Thanks for your comments, Gr8day. I think the important change I've seen over the last year is that we've finally moved from "Can they implement this plan?" to "Will the plan work?"

That change will be complete when they get permission for the food factory production, and we hope that's definitely on the cards. But, add in the factory, and we now have a distributor they seem comfortable with, access to multiple markets, and access to multiple market segments, widespread legal acceptance on both K12 and M18, GRAS sales under way, plus a number of seemingly supportive business partners. We simply haven't seen that combination before now. Between them, I think they more or less comprise the original plan finally put together.

Will it work? That, at last, is the question we can turn our attention to. Hope so!!

[Mule]

This is good news from their FB page, obviously a sign of increasing website sales... probably a good marketing strategy to get their products out there also. I wonder who are receiving the free products, anyone know? Might fire off an email to Blis and find out.

5638

[simla]

Salvation Army, I presume. Good on them. "The greater the Internet sales are for the Throat Guard range of products, the higher the number of lozenges that can be provided to The Salvation Army for distribution." Oct 2012 https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/228348

It does sound like good sales growth.

[simla]

"Honeyblis is now available in your local Hardy's Health Store nationwide in New Zealand !" https://twitter.com/Honeyblis/status/449325643671429120

Also, Honeyblis at the Wellington food show, May 9. http://www.foodshow.co.nz/exhibitor/honeyblis.aspx

[simla]

Here's a pretty slick looking competition to win Blis products. Seems to have run last month too, and the link is picked up across a few blogs. New line of attack? All good. https://www.facebook.com/BLISTechnologiesLtd/app_143103275748075

Down the bottom, it says "power by woobox", so there's a response to their looking to pick up on existing web penetration. http://woobox.com/

[simla]

Anyone got Blis in the Stock Picking Contest?

If this tech crash carries through for the year, Blis may yet be an important pick if it does manage to make profit later in the year, which some of the top price performers don't seem that likely to manage any time soon. WYN is still way ahead though, as it's price didn't take off until after the new year.

[Grimy]

I have. Down 20% at present, but early days.

[Nigel]

Depth looking very scary. Probably suffering from the overall negative market sentiment at the moment. Needing a positive update methinks.

[Bilbo]

Depth looking very scary. Probably suffering from the overall negative market sentiment at the moment. Needing a positive update methinks.

Calling it "depth" is a misnomer. Should be called shallowness :)

I bought in late last year thinking BLT had really turned the corner. I was inspired a little bit by this article by Lance Wiggs - http://lancewiggs.com/2013/05/24/investing-on-the-dot-syft/ - in relation to another perennial struggler, Syft. I'm currently down 27% on BLT with little room to exit judging by the lack of buyers. Guess its one for the bottom drawer for now.

[simla]

Morning, Moosie. You and Nigel are both right that facts are what will settle this in the end. Either the company is on the verge of success or it drags on again.

The point of difference with BLT, too, is that there are solid shareholders behind it, with not a lot of speculation behind it - as shown by the price. But those same shareholders, like me, have put in a fair bit over the years, relative to our positions, and so aren't that excited about nibbling around the edges when the price moves.

Because it is just around the edges. Only about 0.1% of BLT has changed hands since this tech crash thing started. There aren't many buyers, not many sellers. The price is therefore at the mercy of today's buyers and sellers, but nobody is going to score big on that.

BLT is presently stuck in a band where the facts of the next year will set the price in a year's time, and there doesn't seem much to be done in the meantime except watch. The broader share market is fascinating, however.

[simla]

Hey, some BLT shares actually changed hands today. First time in about a fortnight.

"... the Company expected to move into operating profit during the second half of the [2015 financial] year." That half year starts in just 20 weeks from now. Do they still expect this? Well, I suppose we'll hear before the end of this month. https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/248160

Seldom can there have been so little interest in a company forecasting profit. I've bought some BLT since then, but seems like few others have. Did BLT win or lose from the Chinese dairy announcements last week? Or were they unaffected at all?

Roll on some news. Preferably good.

[simla]

Here's a little meat to chew on, anyway. Are BLT waiting for Chinese approval?

The Australians posted this, thus providing more information than virtually anyone else seems willing to publish on the topic. "milk products for export to China " - "Milk products are defined in these administrative measures as ‘foods that use milk as main ingredient, such as: pasteurized milk, sterilized milk, modified milk, fermented milk, cheese and processed cheese, cream, butter, anhydrous cream, condensed milk, milk powder, whey powder, whey protein powder and milk-based infant formula foods’. http://www.daff.gov.au/biosecurity/export/dairy/din/2014/maa_2014-06

But it also says, "It is anticipated that exports of dairy products (other than milk-based infant formula foods) from registered establishments will continue without any impact on trade." Infant formula "involves greater scrutiny by Chinese authorities over production activities, linkages between brand owners and manufacturers, labelling and through chain traceability from manufacturers to consumers in China".

The BLT September half-year report said, "nutritional formulations containing BLIS K12 TM such as beverages, yoghurt powders and other formulations. ... Upon receipt of export accreditation these products will be marketed in Australasia, Asia and parts of Europe." Yoghurt seems to be in the above list (fermented milk?).

So, it seems likely they are indeed waiting for registration. But do they need it for their supplier manufacturer, or for their own plant, or both? The hurdle doesn't look like it will be too high to jump, not being formula, but timing is anyone's guess. And I suppose their supplier manufacturer may be involved in making formula.

[simla]

Anybody fluent in spoken Chinese? This 3 minute youtube clip is discussing K12, on what looks like maybe a Taiwanese shopping channel, but is maybe the breakfast show. Does it show any growing acceptance of K12, or otherwise? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aN5Rm2XuNn0

[simla]

$20m more in the budget over 4 years for rheumatic fever. I wonder if BLT will see any of that?

[simla]

Honeyblis is now widely available in NZ, ready for winter. eg. http://honeyblis.co.nz/auckland-far-north

Maximum of 2 weeks to the annual report now. Even if the company is still expecting operating profit soon, will they have any new data to support it? Good times around the corner, or more of the same?

[False Profit]

This is definitely a bottom drawer stock at present. Happy to have and to hold from this day forward, 'til death do us part - or until the SP moves back in the black :)

[Bobcat.]

Financial report has been published. Management's commentary has a depressing tone to it but the figures don't look too bad. Still, nothing to get very excited about -- all a bit Ho-Hum until their market access issues to the USA and China get sorted.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/194343.pdf

[Harvey Specter]

Financial report has been published. Management's commentary has a depressing tone to it but the figures don't look too bad. Still, nothing to get very excited about -- all a bit Ho-Hum until their market access issues to the USA and China get sorted.The commentary was negative but that was mainly backward looking. Forward looking, there are only a few issues to sort out for their sales growth to continue.

HOpefully next year they will be able to put a positive spin on their accounts.

[simla]

So, annual report out. https://nzx.com/files/attachments/194343.pdf

Points that struck me as important:

p3

"delays in the ... neutraceutical manufacturing facilities ... no corresponding revenue was generated until late March" - so there WAS some.

"ingrediant sales ... up significantly" but delays in [US]

"revenues ... part and finished goods exceeded expectations"

NZ revenue increased from 265k to 494k

p4

Reduced capitalisations from 431k to 100k (ie increased loss by 330k from that alone)

Net cash flow -976k and -348k from capital costs, leaving 3652k

"now has the capital base to support its business strategies" "provides the company with financial stability"

"major commercial developments" "anticipated to come to fruition over the next six to twelve months"

"expectations of significant growth" in Asia and Europe are being met

"we anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially"

"Sinopharm in early phase of their commericial strategy with plans for market launches in China"

p5

"the nutritional formulation plant, which is able to produce milk and non-milk based formulations and to pack them in sachets for food and other products, is now operational"

"The company is in the final stages of the process for approval to export milk-based formulations to specific markets"

red tape problems with access in the US - now in the final stages of resolution

"sound progress" in Europe

"sales in Asia" "significant growth"

full accreditation of the plant expected in "June quarter", delay due to Chinese rules. The company has been through several plant audits, but has no control on the final decision. Upon full accreditation, sales to Australasia, Asia, Europe of finished products. [EDIT: changed "December" to "June quarter" - according to the internet that probably means by end of June, but not clear.]

p6

New machinery for blister packs and bottles of lozenges going in.

Sinopharm has Blis in three cities as a pilot study. Sales in China now! Also planning clinical studies of their own. [EDIT: 3 CITIES, not 3 pharmacies]

p7

Blis Q24 patents gathering pace

Rheumatic fever trial (funded by NZ Government) due to report in 2016.

"Provided outstanding market access issues are resolved our expectations remain for the Company to move to profitable operations during the course of the 2015 financial year" (ie this year.)

p28

seeking clarification from IRD on whether the placements last year jeopardise some outstanding tax losses (continuity rules)

p39

The usual annual discussion on the assumption of "going concern"

p40

Sales to Asia+Europe - 540k, up from 217k

[simla]

So, overall positive but still with a few doubts.


Still expecting profitable operations sometime this financial year.
But that is subject to getting Chinese full approval and sorting out red tape problem in the US.
Still have $3.6m in the bank (or did then)
Ingredient sales growing strongly anyway, but not enough to push out the extra $1m or so to operational profit in just one more year at current rate, as I read it.
Sales have commenced in China. But only 3 cities as a pilot study while Sinopharm develop the markting plan. That's absolutely fine, but delay in revenues while they decide how to do it.
The plant in Dunedin has started operation. Can't sell Dairy stuff till China makes a decision (they hope soon) but can sell other products anyway.


As you say, the Blis reports often start with doom and gloom. But by the end it is usually more positively by the time you get to the end.

In this case, "Provided outstanding market access issues are resolved our expectations remain for the Company to move to profitable operations during the course of the 2015 financial year" (ie this year.) p7.


So, still in line with hoping for profit. But obviously they are very much in the hands of the Chinese approval still. They have had "several audits" (p5) which is surely positive. US issue unfortunate after Blis has jumped through so many hoops already. Nevertheless, Sinopharm selling in three cities in China could still be pretty useful.

Overall, still very promising, but still no guarantees? Definitiely continuing the trend of good news that started over a year ago now, in my opinion.

[simla]

Well, Chinese accreditation would obviously have been welcome news, as the food side doesn't seem able to kick off until then.

But underneath the razzamatazz of that story, ingredient sales are obviously starting to get strong growth going again. The company is also obviously comfortable with Stratum, which is good news considering how much upheaval that change involved.

I sense that they would be on for operating profit within say a couple of years regardless of the Dairy business, although that's just a guess from the sort of growth they reported. And they make no mention of wanting more cash this time.

The dairy thing would obvious give things a good boost, but I have a feeling that that report just painted a picture of a secure future anyway, maybe? That would be mighty welcome after the last few years. Just my opinion, obviously.

[Chippie]

Hi Simla, thanks for your thoughts on the report. It is very useful and apprecaited. thanks

[Chippie]

I am still in for the long term. They are still way ahead of the company that first listed so there is more hope now than then.

[simla]

Still, nothing to get very excited about -- all a bit Ho-Hum until their market access issues to the USA and China get sorted.

True. But with the US issue in "final stages of resolution" (p5) and the China accreditation (maybe) "anticipated in the June quarter" (p5), there's still room for sudden change.

The share price closed today at 1.3 cents. Interesting question for shareholders, including for me. Is this a moment to be looked at seriously? Or, as you say, "a bit ho-hum", nothing to see here?

The trouble is, of course, that we are not reading this in isolation, but framing it with knowledge of years of slow progress. Is that help or hinderance?

[simla]

Thanks, Chippie.

[Bobcat.]

Is this a moment to be looked at seriously? Or, as you say, "a bit ho-hum", nothing to see here?

The trouble is, of course, that we are not reading this in isolation, but framing it with knowledge of years of slow progress. Is that help or hinderance?

I am a holder, Simla, and agree that BLT is in better shape than it was a year ago. By 'ho-hum', I'm meaning there's nothing in their latest report to make me
a) want to sell, or
b) want to buy more.

I'll sit on what I have until we get the next update (next month all going well).

[winner69]

Looks like the good old same old, same old from here. Still talking, doing no walking.

Question is, how much is everyone ready to stump up in the inevitable next capital raising? I'd be wanting results and answers, many years ago to be precise, much more than excuses right now if I was a shareholder.

A solid 1 cent by July.

I'll go back to my cave now that no one wants me on here. Guess the reading is sobering enough...

You entitled to your view mate.

Is the never ending story eh

Wonder if fellow Dunedin based outfit PEB will end up the same

[simla]

I'll go back to my cave now that no one wants me on here.
Nil desperandum, Moosie :)

[Harvey Specter]

Looks like the good old same old, same old from here. Still talking, doing no walking.

Question is, how much is everyone ready to stump up in the inevitable next capital raising? I'd be wanting results and answers, many years ago to be precise, much more than excuses right now if I was a shareholder.

A solid 1 cent by July.They are actually making progress on their new strategy.

Cash burn was $1.2m and they have $3m in the bank so hopefully they will be cash flow positive before they run out of cash.

[brucey09]

Snrs.
Can any person say if k12 is good for as you say flues.?

[Rego55]

Snrs.
Can any person say if k12 is good for as you say flues.?


My understanding is that Blis is not effective against the flu. The reason for this being that it works more like an antibacterial and the flu is a virus. You need an antiviral to attack the flu specifically. Having said that, my own anecdotal evidence and perhaps that of others suggests that Blis K12 creates an inhospitable environment to harmful bacteria. Whether or not this environment and the subsequent quality of one's immune system aids in the prevention of other non-related illnesses is debatable but I like to think it helps. I personally have blitzed K12 when I have felt something coming on like a sore throat / common cold and and it has worked. The four or five people I've got onto it here in Chch are now also firm believers in its worth.

[simla]

I forgot to express my thanks to the company for another mountain of work. There's the good and the bad in the last results, as there has been before, but this company continues to eat through a large challenge.

On the bad side, the future still seems to be exposed to Chinese accreditation in the shorter term, is having current legal difficulties in the US, and has yet to build up a really solid ingredients revenue stream.

Well, it's hardly their fault that the Chinese have cracked down incredibly hard on dairy suddenly, and which has caught the entire dairy industry by surprise world-wide. But they sure as heck are obviously working very industriously to get through the hoops, and we know that the quality of their factory will be excellent because Blis has very high technological standards. We don't know much about the US legal problem, but again we know that they have been toiling hard over it, and we also know that probiotics are constantly under siege from regulations for some unfathomable reason, so we can't be hugely surprised anyway. (And if you are ultimately right, Moosie, that this company will always be struggling, then it will certainly be because of the constant legal hurdles and not because this company lacks will power or skill.)

And the revenue stream problem is again something they are obviously toiling incredibly hard over constantly. The biggest upheaval for the company over the last few years has been the change of distributor. This appears to have set the company back two or three years, and involved a lot of cost. I imagine that is what we have seen in the recent issues. We might reasonably assume, however, that the change of distributor was done in the hope of higher revenues long term. Certainly I've heard anecdotal evidence elsewhere that startups almost inevitably change distributors once it becomes clear that the initial distributor underestimated the intended scale of the startup, and that such changeovers are always painful.

But the revenue stream is also on the good side for the last results. Firstly, the company is obviously getting pretty comfortable with the new distributor - and what a relief that is, if you imagine the alternative of all that cost and then still not liking the outcome. Secondly, they seem to have a few markets that are safely in their pockets and growing healthily. Safe access to Europe and half of Asia is hardly a bad starting point, even if life remains difficult in America and China. And even there, they appear to have lozenge access to China anyway, and that appears to be kicking off even now. And, thirdly, the sales in NZ are still growing well. I have always assumed that NZ sales represent what is possible in other markets. If Blis can replicate that scale even in just Europe, Japan and Taiwan, then things will still work out pretty well by my maths, never mind what happens in other countries or with food-based sales.

And there are other things on the positive side. The company has over $3m in the bank, which would seem to be enough for years to come if sales continue to grow at any half-decent rate, unless they feel the need to invest heavily, but which presumably would be based on sales growth anyway. The product itself continues to gain reputation world wide, as is quite evident in internet searches. Lots of places discuss K12 and M18 now, places that are not business associates of Blis. And, very importantly, the company has successfully shepherded the product to being useful for things like yoghurt, which has required an enormous technological push (read about encapsulation alone some time, let alone shelf life of probiotics) as well as finding business partners (which we are yet to hear a lot about, but which appear to exist.) On top of which the company continues to turn out top-notch research and development, continues to administer a listed company, and continues to find efficiencies and procedural improvements (the cost of goods sold appears to have got better every year for a few years now, as I read it.) And they continue to push through the enormous field of patents, which is clearly a mine-field to deal with internationally. And all on a limited budget.

And also the company seems to be building up a list of useful business partners. They have several international partners who seem to be actively pushing Blis now, and things are heating up in NZ too. (I think we must assume they are getting to know their lawyers pretty well too now, since probiotics seem to live in a sea of legal proscription!)

And not to miss the most obvious good news of all: with reasonable luck, they hope to gain operating profit soon. Essentially that statement boils down to this: "Everything we have been doing is coming together. Our efforts at building international distribution are showing signs of solidity; we have gained access to most markets in the world that we want now; our technology is pretty good; our understanding of the legal situation just gets deeper and deeper; we have other organisations at our side."

Yes, the situation remains in doubt. But even there, just how much doubt is there? If China does not agree to dairy accreditation, then the lozenges seem to be okay in China anyway. And presumably they can still sell food products elsewhere in the world regardless with some reconfiguration of approach. And if the US does not sort out, then let's be honest that sales there are presently not very high so at least the revenue can't actually plunge on the back of it!

All that's just my opinion, naturally. There is still the potential for operating profit to be a while yet, but the odds are looking a lot better for them now regardless of any coming set backs. As I say, just my opinion.

Anyway, we can only wait to see what happens next. But I have no problems thanking the company for all the hard work that has gone on for yet another year. I am definitely very grateful to them, and to all their business partners.

[simla]

I've been trying to figure out why Blis keep mentioning Malaysia, as the combination doesn't show up much on the net. Yet the last report said "Ingredient sales in Asia have shown significant growth, with major markets being Japan, Taiwan and Malaysia." (p5) and "technical work [on] new BLIS M18 lozenge and gum products for ASEAN IV countries (Malaysia region)" p7

This may be a clue. Oralbiotix K12 (http://www.biolife.com.my/v/default/productdetails?id=62) is from BIO-LIFE in Malaysia. BIO-LIFE appear to be owned by DKSH, a Swiss firm with turnover of about $9 billion (http://www.dksh.com/htm/654/en/Facts-and-figures.htm), who describe (http://www.dksh.ch/htm/388/en_CH/DKSH-Group-continues-to-grow-in-difficult-market-environment-2009.htm?Id=101641) BIO-LIFE as the leading vitamin and health supplements provider in Malaysia. Here's another blurb (http://www.watsons.com.my/Default-Preview-Brand/All-Brands/BIO-LIFE/c/BIO-LIFE) saying, "With such a proud history in natural healthcare and as a leading brand platform in a key Southeast Asian market like Malaysia, BiO-LiFE was chosen in 2010 by DKSH to be the spearhead brand for a pan-Asian expansion in the group’s vitamin and dietary supplement business expansion and growing towards becoming the leader in evidence-based, natural healthcare solutions across Asia."

Here's a press release (http://news.cision.com/probi/r/probi-and-bio-life-start-probiotic-partnership,c9442331) by another probiotic firm about their deal with the company, who chose them because "The BiO-LiFE brand has a very successful track record of promoting clinically proven Probiotic supplements." "We look forward to growing our brand with the support of BiO-LiFE in Malaysia and other countries in the region."

All just guess work. But they definitely have a Blis product at least. (Malaysia has a population of "only" 29 million, but add in the other SE Asian countries and it pops over half a billion.)

On another note, the last report said, "The delay in full accreditation is due to additional audit requirements imposed to ensure access to the Chinese market [and complexity]". p5. Ensure? Read literally, this may mean they are already set for export elsewhere but delayed to gain the ADDITIONAL requirements for China, in which case the other markets could be ready to roll regardless? Or it may not mean that at all.

I also noted the sentence, "in the last six months further progress has been made in conjunction with Stratum Nutrition, Asia Pacific Partners and NZPR Group in advancing the plans of product formulators and distributors to launch [Blis products]. As a consequence, we anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially in the neutraceutical sector." p4 The sentence doesn't seem to me to relate to anything else in the report in particular, so maybe something useful is on the boil?

So possibly there was a little more good news hidden in the report than was obvious. You always have to read the Blis reports carefully, as nothing is ever stressed, nothing is ever repeated,

Or maybe I'm reading into it things that aren't there. Time will tell.

[GR8DAY]

GREAT WORK ONCE AGAIN SIMLA!!.......many thanks for your tireless work. The report and your summaries leaves me with more hope/belief that this BLIS story will (eventually) develop into a story of success....and I dont just mean in a commercial sense but also on a humanity level. (lets not loose sight of this fact). I still believe that one day a multi-national will make a full takeover offer to secure the rights to this WORLD-FIRST bio-technology.....as a food or drink? additive. In fact I cant believe this hasnt happened already at the current low SPrice? Please carry on with your analysis......your'e not just talking to yourself!!

[brucey09]

My understanding is that Blis is not effective against the flu. The reason for this being that it works more like an antibacterial and the flu is a virus. You need an antiviral to attack the flu specifically. Having said that, my own anecdotal evidence and perhaps that of others suggests that Blis K12 creates an inhospitable environment to harmful bacteria. Whether or not this environment and the subsequent quality of one's immune system aids in the prevention of other non-related illnesses is debatable but I like to think it helps. I personally have blitzed K12 when I have felt something coming on like a sore throat / common cold and and it has worked. The four or five people I've got onto it here in Chch are now also firm believers in its worth.

Muchas gracias Snr.
I like you explained. I will be trying from Amazon.

[simla]

Thanks, Gr8day. I do, of course, hope that others will respond with their own thoughts. We could call it ... oh, I don't know ... a discussion!

[SwampRat]

Hi Simla
i agree company info is short on hype - I take that as a good thing in itself. Although maybe not the best if that attitude is carried over to marketing.

[simla]

Wonder if fellow Dunedin based outfit PEB will end up the same

It already has, Winner.

People are massively over-reacting to PEB, in one direction. They are massively over-reacting to BLT, in the other direction.

Both look pretty fine companies to me. Both should make profits in the end, I expect. Both have unfathomable share prices from where I'm sitting.

[GR8DAY]

......couldnt have answered that one better myself SIMLA. I did a numbers comparison a while back on these 2 dunedin companies , just for a bit of fun.....ie SP/revenue/PE etc

The result showed BLT underpriced 10 fold compared to PEB. Im still backing BLIS to one day "outperform" PEB as far as total returns go.......afterall BLIS' technology is unique on a global scale and cant be duplicated or improved upon, PEBs on the other hand can and will be, given time. Anyway their respective Share Prices are now coming closer together as we write. PEB heading south, BLIS showing some signs of an improve. Now whats 5,000,000 x $1.70.......ah thought so....JACKPOT!!! (stranger things have happened)

[Minerbarejet]

So whats up here, up 25% just like that.

[neopoleII]

whats $1.70 x the number of shares = ? have to sell a lot of product to reach that
according to management its just around the corner
how many corners are there in a circle?
if the share price can get to 5 cents I'll start buying again...... if I haven't retired.

[skid]

33.3% just like that

[pierre]

33.3% just like that

Yes - but on the back of someone rounding up their holding with 2554 shares.

I certainly hope the enthusiasm lasts but wouldn't be too confident the SP will still be at 2c at 5pm!

[GR8DAY]

whats $1.70 x the number of shares = ? have to sell a lot of product to reach that
according to management its just around the corner
how many corners are there in a circle?
if the share price can get to 5 cents I'll start buying again...... if I haven't retired.

...why wait till then mate. start buying now for a 400% gain..........no better time IMHO.

[Minerbarejet]

Yes - but on the back of someone rounding up their holding with 2554 shares.

I certainly hope the enthusiasm lasts but wouldn't be too confident the SP will still be at 2c at 5pm!
Ok, thanks, much obliged.

[Lorne Ranger]

Perfect selling op for those accumulating on lows. Get in while it lasts!


Every (healthy breath) dog has its day....

[GTM 3442]

33.3% just like that


I rather think it was someone who threw $50 at the market to make their holding a nice round number.




Or window-dressing for the end of the month ?

[simla]

The ODT starting to get a bit more up-beat on Blis? "13th loss in row, but Blis cashed up" http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/304213/13th-loss-row-blis-cashed

[simla]

Here's a bit of a departure. Blis have a stand at the Food show in Auckland at the end of July. http://www.foodshow.co.nz/exhibitor/blis-technologies.aspx#

[Apathy]

Does anyone know what the longest run of consecutive losses are for a listed company? Its a shame - product is very good (have no shares nor interest in acquiring any)

[winner69]

Does anyone know what the longest run of consecutive losses are for a listed company? Its a shame - product is very good (have no shares nor interest in acquiring any)

be a close run between BLT / Wellington Drive and PEB I reckon

At the mo WDT is leading the $ race with accumulated losses over $100m

[Apathy]

be a close run between BLT / Wellington Drive and PEB I reckon

At the mo WDT is leading the $ race with accumulated losses over $100m

Fairly confident Xero might win the accumulated loss race over next year or so - just need to get more customers ;-)

[Apathy]

I'll take that bet!

[simla]

Here's a great review for Blis. "($10.49 for 60 lozenges and you get to make out with your partner again—that seems like a great deal)" "My guinea pigs for my experimental group were my friends Matt and Kyle, who are also fellow members of The Competitive Drinking Film League" " If you’re someone who has nearby plants wither and die every time you open your mouth and you like beer, then you should try OralBiotics to give not only peace to those around you, but also to taste your favorite beer again for the first time." http://americancraftbeer.com/item/taste-your-favorite-beer-again-for-the-first-time-with-oral-probiotics.html

[skid]

Thats a great policy--Acquire share holders for your co. and you get free advertising:):) You should be on the payroll or get some bonus shares ..or something:)

PS.you know you need some when your computer screen starts to melt..

[simla]

I just posted that as I thought it was rather a fun read. Blis is often being reviewed in different places.

[sommelier]

You buying more this morning Simla?

[sommelier]

Potential lawsuit here as well. http://blissyoghurt.co.nz/
Does BLT hold the patent for probiotic products called 'blis*'?

[emearg]

http://www.drmilk.co.nz/

[simla]

I wondered when someone would spot it. I was holding off posting it to let Blis have their big reveal after so many years travel. Appeared last week, I think.
That is truly fantastic news isn't it. It appears to be a milk concentrate that you add to a glass of water to get a glass of chocolate milk (or strawberry, or banana).
Currently we still need the Chinese thing to come right, and the US market is still wobbling under regulations. Presumably this can sell elsewhere anyway.
Not for sale anywhere yet as far as I can see.

[simla]

Throw in this RTD drink in the US, seemingly not yet for sale anywhere. http://mineral2.thinkitdrinkit.com/optimal-oral/
And the Honeyblis.
.. and the whole functional food thing is coming together. Still need sales. Very promising surely.

[simla]

Nice to hear from you again, Emearg.

[Harvey Specter]

That looks very good. I wonder what the cost is. .

[emearg]

That looks very good. I wonder what the cost is. .

It is a joint venture between Blis and NZ Milk Ltd so it is hard to judge the costs/revenue possibilities.

NZ Milk was incorporated in late 2012:
https://opencorporates.com/companies/nz/4108139

Director:
http://nz.linkedin.com/pub/robert-barker/17/41/a37

They're trying to sell it/find distributers on Alibaba:
http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Dr-Milk_141035706.html

[emearg]

Nice to hear from you again, Emearg.

Thanks Simla. Always interesting to read your posts :)

[simla]

It is a joint venture between Blis and NZ Milk Ltd so it is hard to judge the costs/revenue possibilities]
That's a mighty fine product, Emearg. Healthy and delicious AND with all the goodness of a cup of NZ milk AND with the goodness of Blis.

I sure wish I knew what they know in Blis headquarters. Yes, there is no knowing what the Chinese are going to do. Here's a Southland business that has had no feedback on exactly that for three months and so laid off workers as there is still no visible time line.http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/10189761/Southland-dairy-jobs-lost-in-China-rule-change

But what Blis know, and I sure wish I knew, is what they will do if they hear nothing in say another month or another two months. There's the product, it looks hugely sellable. But is it stuck waiting for Chinese factory approval, or can they roll it out anyway elsewhere? In which case, are they actually rolling it out anyway? Is this the product that is going into China and Europe and the Middle East? Or is there another?

If I thought a food product of this quality would be for sale this year regardless of whether we hear back from China, I'd be feeling pretty upbeat about where things are going. (Naturally that assumes this product sells at a profit, which wasn't the case for the ice cream. But we (or I) assume they aren't going down that road again now. And presumably a joint venture involves the other party taking on some of the risk?) The catch with that idea is that the last report said, "provided outstanding market access issues are resolved", which doesn't suggest they are ready to roll much presently otherwise?

I sure wish I knew what they know in Blis headquarters. We "know" one possible outcome, but we know nothing of the other possible outcomes. They surely have ideas on that.

[simla]

I note, though, that that Alibaba link you gave said, "We are looking for importers / Distruibtors / Partners in South east Asia" No mention of Europe, Middle East or America. So maybe this is the product we expect to roll out in many places?? Great product if so - or so I think anyway.

[GR8DAY]

...another good (BIG?) step forward in my opinion. I suspect only a matter of time and effort now before a specialist distributor picks up on this new (world first!) product. I always believed this was going to happen, Alibaba is massive and I understand it is now considered the first port of call for importers/distributors looking for new product.........a "world first" should send it straight to the top........I hope they're going to really push this for all its worth. The other thing to remember here also is that NZ Milk is an entirely separate entity to Blis (maybe partnered somehow?) so they will have there own separate marketing plan and they've possibly spent a few years and many thousands of dollars to get it this far.......GREAT NEWS FOR BLIS!!

[simla]

Actually, looking more at Alibaba also shows the following pages:

Dr Milk Yoghurt. "Dr milk Yoghurt powder." "options from 25 gram to 200 gram" "Certification: HACCP, HALAL" http://nz1004666618.fm.alibaba.com/product/141996451-0/Dr_Milk_Yoghurt.html

"DR Milk growing up milk powder base " http://nz1004666618.fm.alibaba.com/product/141996467-0/Dr_Milk_Growing_up_milk_powder_base.html

[emearg]

...another good (BIG?) step forward in my opinion. I suspect only a matter of time and effort now before a specialist distributor picks up on this new (world first!) product. I always believed this was going to happen, Alibaba is massive and I understand it is now considered the first port of call for importers/distributors looking for new product.........a "world first" should send it straight to the top........I hope they're going to really push this for all its worth. The other thing to remember here also is that NZ Milk is an entirely separate entity to Blis (maybe partnered somehow?) so they will have there own separate marketing plan and they've possibly spent a few years and many thousands of dollars to get it this far.......GREAT NEWS FOR BLIS!!

I think it is like everything else with Blis...best not to get to excited or optimistic about what could be...wait for sales figures and get excited if they are good...we have all been waiting too long to get worked up about new products and their potential! There have been so many with great potential but revenue has stayed pathetically low.

[simla]

Definitely so, Emearg. But I think you would not be back here if you did not also scent the whiff of victory here! Actual solid good sales from this sort of thing would seem at least a year away however, unless there's some pretty advanced plans ready to roll. Could be though. Very frustrating not knowing if this is finally the solid ground that has eluded us so far ... or not.

[Nigel]

I really like the Dr Milk product, and also got an eDM direct from Blis about the HoneyBlis product. Both of these excite me, but - like emearg - I'm not going to get too carried away until we see revenues lifting. When we finally reach cashflow positive operations I think we can start to celebrate as that has been an elusive goal for quite some time now. Almost there, surely :)

[simla]

Hi, Nig, Gr8Day. We've been lonely voices here for a little bit. But the news has been getting better each time for about a year and a half now. And the Dr Milk company was registered in 2012, as Emearg points out, so this "new future" has been in the works for a bit now. Time to be getting some momentum together we hope.

[milt1968]

Hopefully the people who have stuck with the company will be rewarded in due time.

[simla]

For myself, that has been my quite confident assumption for some years now. Not everybody seems to have agreed, not helped by the considerable setback in revenue a couple of years ago amongst other things. But I have seen little sign at any stage that this company had lost it's way. Met lots of obstacles, sure. But lost it's way, no. However, the current share price might imply this is not a universal view!

[GR8DAY]

.......well it's enough for me to start thinking I might throw a bit more dosh at this. Ive only been a holder for a few years now so still early days for me to see this investment bear some serious fruit.....in fact any fruit come to think about it! I understand the skeptics that have come and gone and some come back again.........too long a road for many Im sure. I'm thinking that revenue/sales are about to improve dramatically over the next 6-12mnths......and that's not just "gut-instinct". Things are now building and an improving SP may also soon follow. Good things can take a bloody longtime.

[neopoleII]

"""Ive only been a holder for a few years""......""Good things can take a bloody longtime.""
try 12 or more years..... and the story always seems the same.
until the sp hits 5 cents I wont buy anymore...... which means I havent bought any for a long time...
probably before you first invested in this company.
i still have my shares...... diluted 100 to 1 but hey thats life.
if it gets to 5 cents per share, then something is happening that is good, and will re invest to claw back my investment.
having said that I have aged considerably since that initial investment and IMHO I cant see BLT with its billion share hitting 5 cents or higher.
but hey..... stranger things have happened.

[simla]

Hi, NeopoleII. Hey, 100 to 1.7 thank you! That's only 58 to 1.

Oddly, a 5 cent share price isn't that hard to arrive at. A million dollar profit on a billion shares is 0.1 cents per share by my calculations. On a PE of 15, that's 1.5 cents. But if they start making a profit, and it looks like the profit will keep growing, then a PE of 30 gives 3 cents, and a PE of 50 gives 5 cents. And that's with 1 million. If things start going right, why stop there?

No profit presently, however, obviously.

[neopoleII]

they did pay 10cents per share to the preference shares for a couple of years...... not a profit, just a "distribution" of wealth from normal shareholders
to preference shareholders....... i guess.
seemed cheesy to me then and was looked into by the wet bus ticket brigade,
only thing that came of it was the preference holders ended up with 90% of the shares.
...... or something like that.........

[winner69]

In 12 years has there ever even been a slight profit, or is this just a cash chewing company of incredible lingevity?

Accumulated losses $31m moosie

One day profitable

[simla]

Your argument is the same one, Moosie: Because it hasn't happened before, it won't happen.

Maybe. But why not tell us why nobody will buy Dr Milk. I would.

By the way, they're mostly a friendly crowd in Palmie.

[Mule]

Here's some more good news to add to the barrage

http://newhope360.com/probiotics/blis-k12-gum-receives-npn

I particularly like this part

"Canadian natural health product regulations are among the most stringent in the world and receiving this license is a testament to BLIS K12’s high level of scientific support.“ BLIS K12 can now be sold with Health Canada approved therapeutic claims permitted only in Canada.

Another tick in the box!

[GR8DAY]

Here's some more good news to add to the barrage

http://newhope360.com/probiotics/blis-k12-gum-receives-npn

I particularly like this part

"Canadian natural health product regulations are among the most stringent in the world and receiving this license is a testament to BLIS K12’s high level of scientific support.“ BLIS K12 can now be sold with Health Canada approved therapeutic claims permitted only in Canada.

Another tick in the box!

.......take note MOOSE.....that's a MULE spelling things out for you........now that's gotta be a hard pill to swallow!! ( and just to rub a little salt into the wound mate....approved in ye olde home country as well!) LOL

[emearg]

Apparently probiotics can fight off streptococcal infections and sore throats?
http://newhope360.com/probiotics/probiotics-may-stave-sore-throats


Who knew? Unfortunately not enough people! One of Blis's marketing partners need to make an advertisement that goes viral.


Full study here for anybody interested.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3928062/


90% reduction seems pretty good.


For me, I've had mild sniffles twice in seven years since starting to take K12 daily. This versus the three colds every winter and one every summer that I used to get...like clockwork! And the following chesty coughs that would last six weeks. God I love K12!! Spread the word I say! Know anybody with kids? Or prone to getting colds, strep throat etc? Point em towards K12...

[simla]

This is a bit off topic, except that I suspect it would interest a lot of BLT shareholders, very many of whom seem interested in contributing to society while they invest.

Have any of you heard of the AMP Capital Responsible Investment Leaders Balanced Fund? http://www.ampcapital.co.nz/investing-with-us/responsible-investment-leaders/responsible-investment-leaders-balanced-fund

It is an actively managed fund, and a balanced fund, AND they practice ESG (Environment, Social, Governance), also called Socially Responsible Investment. Their last report, for instance, discussed engaging with companies over only using safe and fair factories in Bangladesh etc, engaging with the Australian Government over its Climate Change policies, and discussing executive remuneration with big companies - to name a few. http://www.ampcapital.co.nz/AMPCapitalNZ/media/contents/Funds/Quarterly%20Reports/RIL-Quarterly-Report-March-2014.pdf?ext=.pdf

AMP worldwide invest over $140 billion, which places them in "the top 11 infrastructure managers globally". When these guys knock on the door to discuss being a good citizen, not a lot of companies are going to turn them away.

Yet, while they do all of that, Morningstar NZ currently ranks this fund as third top performance in Balanced funds (last 12 months). ESG funds control trillions of dollars world wide (it's huge, and growing), and research shows they are consistently pretty good performers, while doing their bit to pressure companies to be good citizens. So far, this is thought to be because the good citizens are thoughtful companies, and so also prosper in business generally - but nobody is really sure why yet.

So if you don't want to personally protest whaling in the Antarctic, you can do it from the comfort of your own armchair via an ESG fund. AMP have more than one RIL fund, and a couple are on Rabodirect for those who have an account there.

Just mentioning that while we wait for BLT news. As I say, you probably haven't heard anybody mention this sort of thing in New Zealand. Don't know why. But some BLT shareholders might find it food for thought. And, yes, others won't!

[simla]

Two weeks to the AGM. More news would be welcome. The new proposed directors seem like they would be useful additions for the company, so I'll be voting yes on that.

[milt1968]

Really hoping for some positive news to come out of the AGM.

[skid]

Apparently probiotics can fight off streptococcal infections and sore throats?
http://newhope360.com/probiotics/probiotics-may-stave-sore-throats


Who knew? Unfortunately not enough people! One of Blis's marketing partners need to make an advertisement that goes viral.


Full study here for anybody interested.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3928062/


90% reduction seems pretty good.


For me, I've had mild sniffles twice in seven years since starting to take K12 daily. This versus the three colds every winter and one every summer that I used to get...like clockwork! And the following chesty coughs that would last six weeks. God I love K12!! Spread the word I say! Know anybody with kids? Or prone to getting colds, strep throat etc? Point em towards K12...

I also know people(myself included)who have fought off a tummy bug with a handful of probiotics(not k12 though)

I gotta say though after reading these posts (after being away for awhile)--I expected more when I switched over to the actual SP

[skid]

And I think Im going to have to take another handful after that Beaver Tail Mossie :eek2:

[Guild]

Went into my local chemist today for some cough medicine, a whole shelf of Blis product, first time I have seen it in any shop around here.

[neopoleII]

but did you buy some blis?
like most folks around the world..... im guessing not.
this is the problem with company...... it there.... sometimes....... but not many buying the product.
m18 should be in toothpaste k12 added to other products.
but its advertized and sold as a novel ingredient in obscure markets.
...one day.........

[Nigel]

but did you buy some blis?
like most folks around the world..... im guessing not.
this is the problem with company...... it there.... sometimes....... but not many buying the product.
m18 should be in toothpaste k12 added to other products.
but its advertized and sold as a novel ingredient in obscure markets.
...one day.........

Quite often I'll ask the pharmacist what they think of the product and if it sells well. Most reports are very favourable (especially compared to the blank looks I used to get a few yeas ago!). None of them have heard of M18 yet, but they all rate K12 as a very good product.

[Guild]

You are right I didn't, today I went with the chemists recommendation to help with a tickly throat.
In the past I have bought it online for my son who has had recurring throat problems with glandular fever, he had a faster than usual clear up of his throat.
Interesting that I didn't think to ask if Blis would help.

[Citizen Erased]

I've been using M18 for about six months. I suck on one lozenge after brushing my teeth at night and the improvement is noticeable. In fact, I skipped my last scheduled appointment with the dental hygienist (M18 once a day costs about the same as a regular visit to the hygienist, but it's better to be proactive than reactive).

[croesus]

Same as Citizen Erased.. havnt been to the dents for 18 months, tho I am very regular with teeth cleaning.

I have found also if I have had a biggish night, I been out and got thru a bottle of red, and a Cpl of G n Ts .. well that's a big night for me.. If I have 2 M18s.. after a good drink of water before bed, I feel a lot better in the am.. then if I hadn't...
Placebo effect.. or a real benefit.. I dunno

Can we market it as a anti hang over pill ?