BLT - Blis Technologies

[barney]

Yes,I think we've all been here before Bobby.However,it does look a bit more promising than for some time.But given the current economic environment and the state of BLT's balance sheet I don't see any reason to rush back in.But it will be interesting to see how things go over the coming months and at last some light might be starting to appear at the end of a very long tunnel for Blis.

[neopole]

after years of watching my truck loads dwindle to a tonka toy, im thinking to hit this stock big again and "average down" to catch the near future rise that looks imenent.
things are starting to happen now.... not on the bottom line of the ledger yet, but definately on the marketing planning side.......... which of course should of happened at the beginning........ but then........ the co was run by 4 eyed scientists, who couldnt sell hydrogen hydroxide to desert dwellers!
but that has changed...... and the stuff these scientist developed all those years ago is now comming to light in pharmacuitical companies.

the tide has turned........ how long till high tide?

[simla]

Barney, I so get what you mean about being here before. I was looking at postings in this group a few years back and it was all pretty optimistic then too. Very sobering. But nevertheless, I think this is looking very like the real thing.

Consider: In the investment statement Nov 2007 (p11), not yet 12 months ago, Barry said the objectives were to:

- secure funding via the rights issue - done
- get a cornerstone shareholder - partly done, maybe completed, we don't know
- achieve positive cashflow - looking pretty promising now
- develop international relationships - done
- achieve regular sales of ingredients and products, aiming for $25 million over 5-10 years - again looking promising
- improve shelf-life - done I think?
- focus on specific areas such as oral, face etc - probably making progress
- develop an innovative culture in the company - seems to have
- develop the management team - again, seems to have been done

I think you have to conclude that Barry does not overstate things. Yes, some of the Asian markets seem to be on the back burner still, but regulatory requirements there have been mentioned as costing money. Everything else seems to have been delivered, even if not in the just few months that were hoped at the time, but not even 12 months has passed yet.

So, the talk of a few years ago was gung-ho, as it is now. But the difference now is that real stuff is on the table. Then, Blis had a good product and good intentions. Now, Blis has a good product and a lot of experience with that product and real live markets in place, not to mention very effective management.

It surely is getting very likely that Blis will announce some sort of profit within this financial year now. It seems very hard to see that the second half at least will not be cash flow positive at the very least.

[Oman]

BLT seems to have turned the corner and I agree with Simla that there's room for increasing optimism. The 1/2 yr data will be interesting reading. They have sales but we need to calculate the profit margin on cost of sales.

Barry's also got a 20% share block in place, on paper at least, so the big fish he's playing with can't easily snap up the whole company. I think he's covered most potential problems okay.

I noticed the Frutarom deal doesn't mention manufacturing and the announcements play down the importance of the bad-breath product while focusing on the immunity and dental caries benefits.

[simla]

We've waited years for the marketing and distribution network to be built so that Blis is finally converted to a profitable company. Over the last year, that seems to have been done, and it is a bit hard to see the current situation as anything other than game, set, and match, isn't it?

But have we missed something else that has happened over the last 12 months?

Say you wanted to be one of the world's leading probiotic companies. You would need a large global marketing and distribution network in a go-ahead company. Well, Blis seems to have that. Then you would need a line of products to bring out. Well, even through all the cash shortages of the last year, Blis has always pursued research and patenting activities of other products. You would need a world-class research team, of course. Hmm, Blis seems to have that too. Finally, you would need a top notch CEO, putting together a strong management team. Yep, got that. You might want to have a cornerstone shareholder set up as well, just for protection. Yes, there it is.

It fits with a few rather odd things. Why has Barry insisted on doing deals with the biggest global companies he could find? Why has little old Blis got a Fortune 500 global brand manager on the staff? And why did the Nov 2007 Investment Statement say "It is the goal of the Company to become a leading oral probiotics company, producing a range of innovative and efficacious products based on [K12] and other oral probiotics" (p11.)

This is speculation, of course. But if this is right, then the last 12 months have seen the building of not only the profit mechanism that Blis has been waiting years for, but also a very solid foundation for a very strong future indeed.

Okay, you've seen that I've usually been optimistic over the last 12 months. Probably that has irritated a few of you, but events seem to have justified it all the same. But this would be racking that optimism up quite a few notches again. If this is true, then we would expect progress over the next 12 months to be way more interesting than just crawling to a small profit.

Alas, it's total speculation. It just happens to fit with a few known facts, but that does not make it true. What does anyone else think? Is Blis doing a bit more than it seems at face value?

[Oman]

...game, set, and match, isn't it?

Maybe not Simla. In a stable financial world the prospects would be good, but we're in a global financial meltdown!

The other question that Barry flagged a while back (I think in the last report) is the manufacturing base to be located offshore in the USA or India.

Manufacturing is an important question for quality control reasons and lower supply costs. Get it wrong and the cost will be high in terms of damaged branding reputation.

Personally I like to see my money in the bank before feeling secure ...or perhaps in the mattress would be better right now!

[Chippie]

It looks pretty good. I have expereinced too much pain to believe the news is that good. Still we could not ask for much more (just the cash in the bank)

[simla]

You are quite right about cash in the door, of course. Things are truly, truly awful out there. But don't forget that an extra million dollars in sales would be big news for Blis at present. While that is a lot divided by the NZ population, surely it is not a great deal when selling into NZ, Australia, Ireland and the US, with Europe and Asia just around the corner - combined populations about 1000 times NZ's! Yes, setup takes time and money (which Frutarom are presumably up for or they would not have just signed up), but I just cannot see how this can actually fail.

[simla]

Blis works. My dental hygienist just told me she hasn't seen such healthy teeth and gums in a long time. She said there was almost no plaque too. Yet I frequently forget to brush my teeth, although I floss regularly. But I have taken Blis fairly regularly for a couple of years now - during which time she has been marveling at my mouth. The dental market is ... well, big really.

[Oman]

The Interim Report is due in a month. My guess is an improved balance sheet and ticks against all the 'Todos' flagged in the last Powerpoint Presentation, but still a small loss.

We might hear more about ...'The company expects to launch several ingredient products into the US market before year end', that was mentioned in the Annual Rpt.

[Oman]

Impatient, is it you snapping up BLT at 4.1 cps? Very sensible too! If I had any money I'd do the same.

[Impatient]

Impatient, is it you snapping up BLT at 4.1 cps? Very sensible too! If I had any money I'd do the same.

Mate, I wouldn't be snapping them up if they were 1c each. Sorry guys, still havent hit the happy pills like Simla; his constant speculation about what's probably 'just around the corner' in terms of mega-profits could have almost made me change my name from Impatient to Irate - now I just think what the heck, my money invested in Blis is a write-off and I wont lose more sleep over it. Good luck guys. Hope I stand corrected one day (Simla, I know you'll say so...so spare me)

[simla]

Fair enough, Impatient. Good to hear from you again. I'll try to contain myself! Seriously, though, it's good that you take the other side, as this wouldn't be a discussion otherwise, which is sort of the point, isn't it? Anyway, it's more lively when you're here, so don't abandon us.

I should mention that I have had Blis shares for years, and have followed these posts, but made no posts as I was not seeing anything imminent happening. I have only started posting over the last year when it seemed to me that something significant was finally happening.

[simla]

Impatient, would it help if I told you of things I am not so optimistic of? Blis I think is doing well, but I am way more gloomy on the world economy than most people. Japan, with 18 years of gloom, seems a fair comparison of where we might be going. Unemployment hasn't even begun to bite around the world, nor have downstream company collapses. When these take off, they will likely feed a vicious circle, leading to ever more unemployment and company collapses. And hundreds of billions of dollars losses by the banks seem nothing to the hundreds of trillions of derivatives said to exist, which would dictate many years of restrained credit while surviving balance sheets suck in all the cash they can. House prices in the west surely will continue to sink as company and individual wealth shrinks, sucking trillions of dollars from the world's reserves, and I cannot see why that should stop for quite some time yet - sinking well over 30% in my view, perhaps even 50%. Meanwhile, poverty will grow, no doubt starvation too, and disease will expand, and therefore death rates. Given the shortages of water and oil (and money in the meantime), it seems very possible that any extended period of world gloom will express itself in war, probably in increased war in Africa, and very possibly war and rebellion in the broader middle east area, and perhaps in government overthrow in some places. None of this is guaranteed of course.

Gloomy enough for you? I haven't mentioned this stuff here, as the forum is Blis. I mention it now so that you may form a better opinion of whether I am just on happy pills, or whether I am simply relating logic as I see it. For Blis, I have consistently described the reasoning behind my views on Blis, so people can decide for themselves whether it is logical. For the gloomy views above, I have again outlined the reasons for my view if you look. In all cases, I try to take the known facts and draw conclusions from them. I put them up for discussion, not to browbeat people. I like to learn from what others think.

You may easily conclude that I take extreme views, and no doubt some of you have already concluded that. I do not claim to have any secret view of the future, but I do try to relate the facts I am reacting to, and then describe possible conclusions. I welcome disagreement, but I reserve the right to question the facts and logic behind that disagreement, as I respect others having the right to question my views.

As for Blis, and despite this gloomy view of the world's economic future, I see a whole lot of light shining out from under the bushel in the coming report, then I see the first carriage of the gravy train being in the station in six months time, with at least a small profit in either the second half or the entire year. I have explained in previous posts why I see this, but also I have explained why I believe Barry does not exaggerate, and he has said in the ODT that this is "big" and this "really sets us up", that there will be "significant" increase in sales over the next few months. I tend to believe him.

[Oman]

Thanks Impatient. I can understand your feelings. I guess many of us have lost money on BLT and could well feel the same way.

Simla's view also has merit. The company has improved under Barry and the strategic direction is clearer. It's also true that BLT traditionally understates achievements. The next report financial statement will help us see what's happening.

For people who are positive about BLT this is a good time to either buy in or reduce their average price, and the less positive can do as as you say and just forget them for now. I've got a shoebox of 'forgotten' share scripts ...all 'high fliers' and now totally worthless.

[simla]

"A good time to buy in", Oman. Alas, are we not human though. I have indeed bought a bit more on this basis, but even my persistent optimism has not given me the courage to go in boots and all in the face of a universal falling market. Nevertheless, nearly two million Blis shares have changed hands in the last month. That is relatively very little selling out in such extraordinary times, but a surprisingly healthy interest in buying in.

[Cannibal]

More here from the Herald this morning

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/health/news/article.cfm?c_id=204&objectid=10542787

[Bobby_Fischer]

" ... starting to make a profit ..." Hmmmm - a portent of a healthy interim result, I wonder? Prof. Tagg would probably know. BLT are so cheap I am almost tempted to buy a few, adverse market conditions not withstanding.

[simla]

Philosophical thought for the day while we wait for news. Everybody is wondering how to make money from shares now that confidence will be shot to pieces for years. Well, go back long enough and people used to buy an income stream. In the same way you put money in the bank for x% interest, people used to buy shares for a yield. But over time, people started bidding higher prices for shares likely to give better yields, and eventually the bubble mentality took off. It became the norm to buy shares only for capital gain, which is why PE ratios have reached high levels on some shares, and why some companies have got away with paying no dividends. What will happen next? I'm guessing people will rediscover buying shares for the income stream.

Heaps of people in the market now will have absolutely no memory of that being the reason to buy shares, just like my teenagers have no idea who Roger Douglas or Brian Edwards are. It will be a shocking lesson for most of them. You can hear them asking: but how will I make money by leveraging if the dividend yield is less than the cost of borrowing? And how can I make money buying in and out of the market all the time if the price isn't changing due to constant speculation? And what does saving mean?

[simla]

So, the moment of next news arrives. Despite Tagg's reported comments, I don't see how they can possibly announce a profit for the first half. Neither the Irish nor the American situation were in place then, whereas things were already turning down, possibly badly for all we know. Also the NZD was fairly high still, although we have not heard explicitly how currency affects Blis.

Any good news must surely fall into the current second half, and the question will be whether we hear detail or just words like "significant", which has rather been the pattern with Blis to date. So not sure what to expect here.

The big news will surely be either growth or non-growth. If there is growth, will we hear that the cornerstone shareholder has been called on to cough up to help build another factory, or will we be asked to do that? Or if there is non-growth, that would be pretty significant news considering the irish and American deals on the table. Is it too soon to hear any developments following the US trade show? Will we hear anything real about Ireland if the winter there is only just starting to cut in? Is Australia still on the boil? Does the collapse of the NZD against the USD help? The main point now is whether the growth of Blis can match the collapse of the markets generally.

Overall, hard to know what to expect. Blis has some good news on the table, but it is probably too soon to know what that will lead to, whereas the first half results may be pretty disappointing. On the other hand, Barry has shown himself pretty good at pulling some rabbit or other out of the hat each time. I think my biggest hope is that we will get news over the next six months other than having to wait for six months to tick over without any progress reports.

[simla]

Okay. Was that good news or bad news? I'm sure I can't tell. Ideas anyone?

Somebody dumped a lot of shares on the back of it. But the capital issue was already mentioned as being for a new factory if things took off, so that is not bad is it? And revenue was down to $300,000 for the six months, but has already reached that in the last two months, which may still be a profit for the 6 months. Basically, the only problem was the total lack of any new information, and even that must surely be fixed in the next few weeks if the company is going to go for an issue. Certainly not a well handled announcement though, and the plunging share price will no doubt be regretted in Dunedin with an issue coming up.

[scamper]

I don't think $15 k's worth can really be considered a major dump.
Perhaps impatient finally snapped...
i still hold some, and just consider them a scientific contribution, but way behind meals-on-wheels etc. cheers.

[simla]

I emailed Barry to express concern over the lack of info, and the fact that the announcement hardly sounded positive. His reply gave more info, and was a lot more positive. He also pointed out that financial statements are now on the Blis website, which was not mentioned in the NZX release. The cash position is reduced, but okay to my eye.

I asked a whole lot of questions and, kindly, Barry said "I am happy for you to extract comments [to this group] but we will certainly give a better explanation in the forthcoming docs which is the proper place". Points he mentioned include: " Pharmabroker has been advertising to the trade, but limited consumer advertising at this stage". "We would like to boost NZ sales and have some initiatives to do that early next year." "[Whelehan Group, Ireland] have started their roll-out plan but we have to anticipate this will take a year or so to build the sales volume." " We anticipate [an] increase in sales in Australia, which will take a year or so to achieve because of the presence of Frutarom in that market and with our own efforts in new food related applications." "The first sale in the US occurred early in the year as reported and we have since followed this up with additional sales through Frutarom (also reported). They are doing extremely well and have good feedback from prospective and actual customers." "BLIS attended the Supply Side West exhibition recently. We received a good response from potential customers and sales have already resulted with 2 new products to be launched by the end of the year from K12 ingredient sales." "We sell in Euro and USD and AUD internationally, not NZD!. We do not hedge at present". "The details of the RI will be announced in the next few weeks. As noted earlier we are moving to contract manufacture outside NZ rather than having dedicated facilities.""I have been surprised that few people have taken much interest in Frutarom. This association is of major importance to BLIS.""As the Chairman noted the strategy is working well".

All of which sounds a lot more positive to me than last week's announcement did. These things could surely have been included, but perhaps they want to make the rights issue documents stronger by going into detail then. Certainly it will be interesting to read what is to come, as all of the above is pretty positive.

[Impatient]

I don't think $15 k's worth can really be considered a major dump.
Perhaps impatient finally snapped...
i still hold some, and just consider them a scientific contribution, but way behind meals-on-wheels etc. cheers.

No point in selling, really. I view them as a lottery ticket now - either they make it big or I'll lose my 'ticket price' entirely. I have accepted the latter as reality, which lets me sleep a little better as I can tick this one off and now focus on other, more promising investments.

Sorry, simla, I havent even read any announcements - they want to raise more capital? At the current SP, how many more zillions of shares do they want to issue to get some decent money in (happily diluting whatever share of the company WE currently own...or maybe that's been their objective all along; using their insider info but holding it back from us, they slowly take control of it at a bargain price...geez, I almost sound like simla now....) :-)

[simla]

Good to hear from you Impatient. You didn't miss anything from the announcement, but the stuff from Barry (above) has a definite air of momentum about it. Two neutraceutical products into the US is a major development, as Barry's big message has been that neutraceuticals are the way to go, but this is the first actual step into that market. So far he has apparently talked at least one firm into putting it into production, so they've bought into the idea, but the real test will be the consumer reaction, which I guess will become clear over the next 6 to 12 months.

[Oman]

Thanks for the info Simla.

Barry says we are not to expect too much for another year or so which is about what I expected. The trend still looks positive and the ingredients products ...whatever they are, are a new line of potential cash flow, but I guess we're all surprised by the RI announcement ...during a world recession!

The last RI was not exactly a boomer and the SP is lower now so this must be an indication of something ...but what?

I'm not eager to invest more money, and we know some of the big BLT holders will not invest, so the winner looks like ...the new NZ cornerstone underwriter! Ummm ...

[simla]

Yes, the big question is whether this RI is a totally new thing, or just a way of putting the 20% issue to the cornerstone shareholder through shareholder approval. If the latter, we are just being offered the right to buy in and there won't be too much expectation we will. As the cornerstone was given the right to buy in at about 7 cents, then the price now would presumably be that. But what if this is a genuinely new issue?

Not entirely sure I agree with you that Barry said not to expect too much for a year yet. My reading is that new, and therefore extra, revenues will build over the year, adding to previous volumes. But the March report said the second half only lost $70,000 ("617k full year loss" compared "half year loss of 550k" - or that's what I took it to mean) although that included capitalisation of course. Now, revenue in first half this year was only 300k, but 300k since then, or over 600k YTD with 4 months to go, and new revenue streams coming on tap. Revenue last year was 878k, with sales of 657k, so things are certainly on track to beat last year, despite the massive downturn. Further, since the first half took a 400k loss, there is the potential for the second half to look pretty good. Of course, this would be more reassuring if only the world were not increasing its plunge into the black hole! But actually, I remain optimistic. (There's a surprise!)

[Oman]

The good news is that we are no longer discussing whether the company will survive as we were 9 months ago. With the underwriter in place finances must be better because they would not be investing unless they have done due diligence and feel the risk-reward is strongly in their favour. My guess is the buy in is at about 7cps and they flick them on in 5 years at a dollar!

So I'm also optimistic but I also think we have about 18 months before we can say with certainty that BLT is okay. Hopefully in less than 2 years we'll see some solid cash flow from ingredients sales. The sales numbers we're seeing now are just peanuts for a viable company.

[simla]

Yes, I agree that things have changed. The reason I talk about things going well now is not that I expect a huge profit tomorrow, but that there may be a small profit, nearly tomorrow. At that point, people will not be willing to sell the shares cheaply. Even now there is only a trickle of shares under 6 cents, whereas a few months ago they went under 4 cents. At such point as Blis declares a maiden profit - and that just could be in just a few months, or the mood may change with the rights issue documents too - people who have not bought what they want may well have to pay quite a premium for them. Even moving from 4 to 6 cents is a 50% increase, or a 33% decrease in what can be bought for the same money. A move from 4 cents to 8 cents is doubling, and people would not be sitting around ignoring that with shares like Telecom, so why do it with Blis when the future looks more and more guaranteed now. Of course, the flip side is there could be a long climb with Blis, so people can afford to come in late. And another argument is that the future is still not guaranteed, but that gets harder and harder to believe.

[simla]

Thought people might enjoy a few quotes from 5 years ago, 13 January 2004, in this chat group:

"Profit for 2005 projected and maybe dividend."
"... have 'hopeful' expectations of great news very shortly"
"It is NOT acceptable for a share that was as high as over $1.00 and currently trading at 15 cents. "
"Last chance to get some shares in BLT at these levels."

Hmm ...

[Scuffer]

just the same now people saying the same things but sp still looks like its ready for going down the gurgler

[Oman]

Unfortunately I tend to agree with your comment Scuffer. I expected far more from BLT a year or so ago, but the progress has been in the hidden area of research and patent protection which is pure cost and shows no profit in the short term.

In addition there is some change in the company staffing, business strategy, and the cornerstone backer, so we have reason for being a little positive. In two years I expect we'll be making the same hopeful noises ...or be happily spending the dividend!

[simla]

Ah, ye of little faith!! (Unfortunately there is of course the distinct chance that you are right.)

However, to my mind the big difference is that Blis is in the marketplace now, with several effective distributors, whereas back then it was all promise of what was likely to happen, not what had already happened. The other big difference is that Barry has taken Blis down the neutraceutical route, which he feels will have a much bigger market. It remains to be seen if that is true, but it is undeniable that he has now launched Blis into that market. Also, having an underwriter in place rather suggests the good news is not a long distance away now, or they would not have bothered.

I believe the main risk now lies in whether the neutraceutical market is going to work. If it is, then the good news is getting pretty close. If it turns out to be a dud though, then Blis falls back on a briskly growing, but much smaller, future selling through chemists. The other unavoidable main risk remains with the increasing sucking noises as unemployment starts to kick in around the world. My guess is the neutraceutical market can comfortably out-accelerate the imploding world problem, but the chemist market would obviously make very much heavier weather of it.

[Oman]

SP up 34% at 5.9. Anyone any ideas why?

[simla]

I fear the price means little Oman, as Blis has yet to announce a profit! Up to that point, the price is necessarily random (and despite the dragging share price of Blis, there are not very many shares for sale, which is presumably why it has been randomly going up and down quite a bit lately).

Other companies seemingly not making profit are presently selling for other seemingly random prices: Scott Technology (95 cents), Botry Zen (1.7 cents), Life Pharmacy (46 cents), Oceana Gold (25 cents), Pacific Edge Biotech (10 cents), Wellington Drive Tech (19 cents). If anyone can explain any of those prices relative to Blis I would certainly like to hear. I always like to learn.

[Scuffer]

SP up 34% at 5.9. Anyone any ideas why?


At the dizzy height of 6.4 cents now I don't think I can contain myself.:D

[Oman]

I had wondered if there was some inside news leak, but with no sales today it must have been an optimist diversifying his Lotto tickets investments. We all live in hope of a better tomorrow.

[simla]

Merry Christmas people. 2008 has been a roller coaster and 2009 will probably be more so.

But a little bit of Christmas Cheer for Blis at least. This new product seems to be available in US, UK and Ireland at least. It is made by Nature's Plus (http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=29949&productNumber=29949&category=12). They seem to make a ton of stuff, but perhaps someone can find out if they are a big trusted brand name? Actually, it doesn't mention Blis, but does mention S. salivarius K12, so surely this is Blis? This looks a VERY saleable product to me.

http://www.naturesplus.com/products/photos/29949.jpg

[Bobby_Fischer]

Nice find Simla. Let's hope it sells well.

Where's the rights issue - was supposed to happen in December wasn't it? "Underwriters" getting cold feet?

[simla]

You should ask questions more often Bobby if we are going to get answers straight away! Another $400,000 in the bank, as I read that announcement. And the rights issue deferred to the new year.

[Chippie]

http://www.manta.com/coms2/dnbcompany_d00cqy

Started 1972, 400 employees with $50m p/a sales. They are not the worst choice of distributor.

[Oman]

Thanks for finding the info Simla and Chippie.

The Inner Ear product is quite positive and nicely packaged for child appeal. I think the Optimists may be gaining on the Sceptics.

[Oman]

This online seller is big and has the new product.

http://www.vitacost.com/Natures-Plus-Source-of-Life-Animal-Parade-Childrens-Chewable-Inner-Ear-Support

Iherb is another big Internet seller. They have 210 Nature's Plus products offered but don't have the new inner ear one yet.

[simla]

Frutarom also seem to have been casting marketing seeds around the industry fairly quickly:

http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/content/view/print/230447
http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=22916&zoneid=28
http://www.energytimes.com/departments/nov08_supsavvy.asp

Wasn't sure what to make of this though, that is obviously not from Frutarom http://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/hotnews/probiotic-good-for-respiratory-health.html

[THEONE]

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
In the past I have been very wrong with my Blis predictions.
Any predicitions on the rights issue Simla or Bobby?
I see that Mr Edgar and Mr Offen are underwriting the rights issue.
So I presume it will be around 7 cents.
Its great to see the ingredient products out there.
Should be interesting to see the rights issue documents.
Hopefuly we will learn more about China and Korea.
I wonder when they will launch the dental caries, body odor products?
I have a lot of confidence in Barry, my major worry is how long it will take.
But this is understandable, things take time.

[simla]

TheOne, not sure what you are apologising for with your predictions, as your comments always seem to be pretty pertinent to me. Timing is the tricky issue, and who can ever tell when things will actually come to pass?

Can't tell you anything about the rights issue, as basically we know nothing. However, the two underwriters are interesting. Tony Offen does not seem an easy man to learn too much about from the internet, but Eion Edgar is out there. The following is from the NZ Olympics website, and if a man like this is still buying big into Blis, things can't be looking too bad for Blis!

Eion has a high profile on the national business and sporting scene. He is Chairman of one of New Zealand's leading independent investment houses. With a trading history spanning 70 years, Forsyth Barr has 11 offices nationwide and employs over 200 staff.
Eion graduated Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Otago in 1967 and completed his accounting professional qualifications the following year. He was awarded a Fellowship of the College of Associate Chartered Accountants in 1996, and awarded The Valued Contribution to the Profession in 2003.
He is President of the NZOC and Chairman of Queenstown Resort College. He is also a Director of Martinborough Vineyards Estates Ltd, Mr Chips Holdings Ltd and Structurflex Group Ltd. He is a Trustee of The Arts Foundation of New Zealand, the Central Lakes Trust, The Foundation for Youth Development (formerly Project K), the Halberg Trust, the Rhododendrons for Dunedin Trust and the Skeggs Foundation. He is Past President of New Zealand Soccer Inc and the Patron of the Wakatipu Trails Trust.
He was Chancellor of the University of Otago for five years and was on the University Council for a total of 22 years. He was previously Chairman of the NZ Stock Exchange and a Director of the Accident Compensation Commission and the Reserve Bank of NZ.
In 1995 Eion was awarded the Dunedin Citizen of the Year for his contribution to the arts, business, education and the sporting community. In the 1996 Queen's Birthday Honours List he received the Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit. In 2003 he received the Distinguished Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit. In 2004 he was named The NBR New Zealander of the Year and his latest achievement is to be one of the six 2004 laureates to be inducted into the NBR Minter Ellison Business Hall of Fame.
He and his wife Jan have made substantial philanthropic gifts, the main ones to the Edgar Sports Centre in Dunedin and The Edgar National Centre for Diabetes.
His interests are family, all sports, travel, the arts and education.

[Oman]

Regarding your link Simla; http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=22916&zoneid=28

The teeth cavities protection is good news but I think the mention of K12 being effective in reducing cellular inflammation is right on target for the main cause of many illnesses.

We may see a lot more about this new area of application, especially if the LEF picks up these reports as they most certainly will. I expect a much wider educated audience taking note of BLT ...and buying K12 products.

Take a peek at the LEF site for more about inflammation and how it impacts almost every part of the human body ...that's an enormous market waiting for K12!!!
http://www.lef.org/protocols/prtcl-146.shtml

I now think I can see why Barry spent so much of our money on patent protection. He may be about to spend a lot more if there's an anti-inflammation product being considered.

[Oman]

...I wonder when they will launch the dental caries, body odor products? ... my major worry is how long it will take.

My optimistic opinion is it's going to happen in 2009 ....many initiatives from Barry over two years and it's coming together quite nicely with the big players getting involved and flexing muscle. Frutarom is clearly very important in what happens next ...and whether we get a dividend!

[simla]

Thanks for the stuff on inflammation Oman. Blis seems to have a surprising number of positive side effects. Very curious.

[THEONE]

Just found some of the new product formats on sale on line,
im curious about what the ingredients are in the relief gargle.
I wasnt a big fan of the throat spray it tasted terrible.
Its good to see all the different happenings though.
Things are looking up

[simla]

Nobody could accuse Barry of rushing into print! It is now almost 8 weeks since Blis announced they would do a rights issue. Presumably the underwriters have not pulled out, since they coughed up cash just before Christmas. So either Blis are very busy, or waiting for good news to ice the cake with, or perhaps making sufficient money that they are deciding just how much cash they need. Or bad news possibly, which does not seem especially likely given the activity. Or maybe just having a well deserved holiday, of course.

Certainly the market is expectant of news. There have been very few offers to buy or sell. Only about 100,000 have sold this year. And offers to buy at least 100,000 at 5 cents are not getting any takers just now. Good news or bad, I get the feeling the price will react quite strongly either way, so I hope the news is at least clear.

[pietrade]

Thanks too, from me OMAN, for that very interesting link. Heaps of vreally interesting stuff and I'll get me a 'C-reactive protein' check next blood test I have.. Cheers

[THEONE]

http://www.ubyssey.ca/?p=6812
Interesting

[simla]

Not sure we haven't seen that before, but not clear from the article where the UBC (University of British Columbia, Canada?) comes into it. Interesting that Frutarom keep cropping up in strange places. Nice that they're at it, but I can't quite pick the audience they are aiming at in all these obscure publications. Do probiotic firms read the UBC newspaper?

A turn around on the market, with quite a few willing sellers suddenly. Are they just back from on holiday, or is the world worrying them? Or do they think they know something we don't know? Presumably just another random bunching, as Blis news never seems to leak out early.

[Oman]

Not sure we haven't seen that before.

I think we have similar information Simla, but Frutarom are marketing it through various sources and it's the first I've seen from this source ...probably trying to raise awareness in general.

If inflammation is the target for development that seems very positive ...and hopefully profitable too.

The 'couldn't care less' comment about K12 and bad breath is interesting. Big fish have a different perspective from small fish!

[simla]

The Curious Case of the Rights Issue that Didn't Bark in the Night!

I really cannot see that it is likely the delay is bad news. The only bad news that might hold up the issue, that I can think of, would be a major problem with one of the two major partners of Blis of the moment. But the underwriters just paid $400,000 three months earlier than they had to, which does not suggest any distress there. And Frutarom are so big that only a major catastrophe would prevent them doing their bit with Blis, which is surely very unlikely indeed.

Equally, it is hard to see how the issue could be being held up for good news. It would have to be very good news indeed (and that had not yet happened, which is chancy) to bother to hold back a rights issue.

Which would instead imply that the delay is strategic. It could simply be lack of resource for one reason or another, but it is a long delay if that is the explanation. The only explanation that seems particularly plausible to me is that cash flow is going well, and the company is waiting to see just how big an issue is actually necessary. If that were the case, the company would have to be cash flow positive, or there would be no point in waiting.

Any other ideas anyone?

The underwriters are entitled to another 15% by March 31, and at the least Blis is presumably obliged to put that to shareholders. Last year's rights issue was alloted 4 weeks after the notice of meeting, which would imply we must hear something by the last week of February at the latest.

Just wait as long as necessary for maximum advantage, never let yourself be rushed? It is starting to look like Barry is a test cricketer at heart.

[THEONE]

My thoughts exactly, i guess you check the share price evey few hours and
do google news searches like me.
If i had a dollar for eveytime, id be a rich man.
I will check the mail tomorow hoping for news!

[simla]

Not sure about every few hours TheOne, but yes Blis is on the edge of establishing itself safely, and confirmation of that would be great considering the world is still falling off a cliff.

Certainly news delivery from Blis is consistently minimal, with the exception of last year's rights issue. I have emailed Blis a few times over the last year urging more openness with the market, for what it's worth. Some explanation of this delay wouldn't seem uncalled for, for example, and nobody could call the initial announcement of the rights issue detailed!

It's a great pity that pretty well all companies seem to feel shareholders are best given news only when there is no danger of perceived failure. Possibly it's as simple as shareholders being people who are happy to go out on limbs, whereas managers are people who like to keep everything nailed down?

Personally, I'm a great believer in the gains from swapping news and idea. I share my ideas pretty freely, and I DO keep asking you guys to share your ideas. I do like to learn!! http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showforum=14 is a great example of people freely swapping ideas, for example. But most people seem to prefer to keep their ideas and knowledge to themselves, and it's not clear that many people want to hear other people's ideas either!

Anyway, whatever, all companies seem to like strangleholds on news, and that seems about as likely to change as waiting for war to go away!

In the meantime, I remain optimistic that the Blis business plan is likely to succeed, and probably sooner rather than later.

[simla]

Interesting to note the number of job cuts around the world for pharmaceutical companies. Presumably people are cutting back on buying from them. Blis is not that far from being a pharmaceutical company, so what effect will that have? Perhaps neutraceuticals are cheap additives to bulk produced cheaper goods and therefore in a totally different market?

[fungus pudding]

Interesting to note the number of job cuts around the world for pharmaceutical companies.


Can't say I've noticed thie pharmecutical companies in particular when it comes to reducing staff. Can you quote any examples?

[simla]

World's two largest drugs companies:
Pfizer - to cut 20,000 jobs?: http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/26/news/companies/pfizer_wyeth/?postversion=2009012614
Glaxo Smith Kline, to cut 6000 jobs : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/pharmaceuticalsandchemicals/4414273/GlaxoSmithKline-to-slash-6000-jobs.html

Of course, some of this is declining new products, and not relevant to Blis perhaps. But presumably some at least is the current climate.

[scamper]

Simla, Oman, TheOne:
Do you hold any other shares?
Do you post on any other threads?
Are you a blt trinity -- one person in three names?
whatever, am grateful for your interest, but suspicious of your motives...
Cheers Scamper (holder).

[Scuffer]

Hey Scamper

Do ya suspect these three are the holy trinity, the godhead of Blis or is it just chinese whispers?:D

[scamper]

dunno, but their level of optimism seems a bit dodgy...

[simla]

Scamper! I confess I had never thought of posting under multiple names. Not sure what would be gained from it, but an original idea.

For myself, I currently own no other shares as (a) it doesn't seem a great time for most shares and (b) I am really picky about what I will invest in. I think (as I may have mentioned ...) that Blis is a truly promising company. I have had shares in a range of normal companies in the past and got bored silly, as they never did anything of note. Why bother? Rules for a great investment, for me, are: great product, great management, and a market where competition is small enough to prevent profit being ground into the dust. Blis meets those tests, but not a lot of other companies do. Additionally, I love what Blis stands for: something the world actually needs for once! Antibiotics will be a source of very major future problems in the world, and Blis is already breaking open alternative solutions. Also, Blis does not destroy the world, or create global warming, addiction, war, death or famine. Again, not a whole lot of companies fit that either. And I quite like the challenge of getting in early without being eaten alive.

Why do I keep posting good news? I tell you guys again and again: I believe in sharing ideas! And the news is good because really there has been damn all bad news about Blis for about a year now. I have a reasonable holding in Blis of course (or I would be a hypocrite), and my sense of fair play tells me to share that news around. I think there is plenty to go around in the world, I don't buy into the view that I will lose if anyone else wins. In addition, I would like NZers to own Blis. Once the good times come, you just know it will all get snapped up by mindless institutions, and lots of it will end up overseas. Even Bruce Sheppard has recently been saying that NZ is stuffed because we've sold everything off shore already. I assume only NZers read this forum on the whole.

I gather you wonder if I am trying to move the market. Well, for a starter, no matter how much I point out how much sense Blis is making, the share price does not move, so there is no evidence to back that up at all. And secondly, I believe in build and hold, and have no intention of selling for quite some time to come, so do not care about today's price. I do not regularly trade, and I have had a few Blis shares for years, but have built up quite a bit over the last year as I could see the thing finally starting to come together. My basic philosophy in life is "have just a few eggs and watch them really well". I think you will find that most of the well known investors have done just that.

I actually think Blis is a good long term hold that will pay good dividends for years to come, including the possible depression, when dividends will be the name of the game, capital appreciation being dead. Consider that if Blis sold $6 million pa (4 cents a share), it might earn 2 cents a share. Compare that to the current share price of about 5 cents, then consider that Blis sells $1 million now selling into just NZ/Australia, and is about to open in markets hundreds of times as big, and via a more promising trade route too. I wouldn't bother saying this sort of stuff, as it seems obvious to me, but after watching the forum for some time, I find it equally strange that nobody else IS saying it.

I am just an old-fashioned kiwi bloke (I only buy NZ shares anyway, I don't believe that other countries are "better than us"). I am happy to discuss things, and happy to pass on thoughts I think might interest people. If I have seemed to urge anyone to buy Blis, I apologise, as my intention has only ever been to discuss and let people draw their own conclusions, and I have never ruled out possible negative outcomes, frequently discussed them. I DO keep asking for others to express their opinions. By saying this stuff in public, the idea is that people will knock down in flames ideas that don't stack up. If nobody is knocking down what I say, I have to assume that people do not find it illogical. Impatient has had a go, of course, which I certainly respect, but I think he has mainly objected to the early optimism rather than the overall conclusions?

So, since you asked me a question, can I ask you one? Do you think I am overstating Blis, or do you think I am merely saying stuff that does make sense, that is a reasonable interpretation of actual known facts?

Honestly, Scamper, there is no hidden agenda behind my comments. I hope I'm an intelligent chap, but I'm just reporting the logic as I see it because I think open discussion is good for society, including NZ. I believe in open society. I'm disappointed that Blis does not respond in any way to this forum, whether by posting or public announcement. I think that would be good for the company too. The Global House Price Crash forum I mentioned above is a bunch of guys chipping in to the conversation, and I think it very useful, a good example of what I'm talking about. That's all that drives me.

I have said a bit about myself, because that seems called for. I realise forums have a way of turning personal sometimes though, so pease don't tear too many strips off me personally people, as this forum is about Blis. I perfectly accept Scamper's questions, as he is simply asking my bona fides, not attacking me personally. But we've probably all seen forums that go to pieces when it all turns personal, so let's not use this as a chance to do that.

[scamper]

Thanks Simla for your measured and patient response.
I also think blt has great potential, and I've held some since about 2000, i think.
Retrospectively, I think I've held too many for too long, and feel that the holding has not been a prudent investment, but a good social development action -- bit like money to a worthy charity.
Accordingly, I'm delighted to follow-up your posts (along with those of Oman, TheOne, Bobby F. etc) but I cant help feeling that we are a bunch of the converted indulging in some mutual support...
As usual, I take heart from the points you've raised (particularly like "have just a few eggs and watch them really well"), and yes, they do make sense. You are not over- or mis-stating the case, but I also think they are an OPTIMISTIC 'interpretation of actual known facts'.
I sure do hope that you are proved right. Cheers, Scamper.

[airedale]

Holidaying on the Sunshine Coast,Queensland. Sore throat developed. Enquired at Caloundra Pharmacies for Throatguard. They hadn't heard of it unfortunately.

[simla]

No problems, Scamper. Your own posts make it clear that you are pretty experienced and clued up, so I'd be pretty silly to object to any question from you. And, if you were thinking that, chances are that others might be too.

One of the things I like about this forum is that pretty well everybody seems to have a few clues and mean well, whichever side of the argument. The fact that people like this are backing Blis is actually one of the reasons I continue to be optimistic. Yes, maybe we're the optimistic leading the optimistic, but I think that unlikely. The whole point of public discussion is to come to "reliable" data, and if we collectively are not furiously disagreed about the future, that's promising too.

[Oman]

Hello Scamper.
I'm a real person in Thailand and will be in ChCh next week hopefully ...to buy up some more BLIS tablets!

More about me on yanimon dot com where the name is an alias but the pix are real.

I hold a large bucket of BLT mainly because I think the potential outweighs the risk. Like everyone else I'll feel much happier when they are cashflow positive.

It's interesting about the rights issue being delayed. It could be that it's taking more time than expected or maybe as others have said ...the sales are picking up. I guess a day or two longer and we'll know.

[simla]

That is a very sharp rights issue. No flies in Dunedin. If existing shareholders take up their full rights at 1 in 45, then the existing 143 million shares just happens to raise $3 million, so there can be no complaints that the underwriters have too big a head start. Further, the preference shares even pay 10%, so existing shareholders don't have to feel they are throwing good money after bad. However, to take up shareholders' full rights at present price of 5 cents (20 per dollar), shareholders must effectively purchase 20 shares per 45 they currently own, which is a big ask.

On the other hand, the underwriters potentially get (at, say, 1 for 25 per $1, or 4 cents each, more only if the price is very low in 3 years) 75 million shares, taking them to 82 million shares out of 143+75 = 218 million shares, or 37% of the company, AND they have an option for another say 25 million shares, taking them to 44%. And for this, they have to pay a "mere" $4 million dollars cash. For which the company pays 10%, or $400,000 pa.

Meanwhile the company gets some very heavy cash too.

We will certainly have to see the supporting documents. At face value, Blis would appear to be expecting to make very good profits to justify this. The need for such heavy cash is either a very good or a very bad thing. Meanwhile, the issue of another 107 million shares (including the 7 million issued before) on the then-existing 136 millions is about a 40%+ dilution by my calculations.

Further, despite the $400,000 cash before Christmas, they want to borrow another $500,000. Seems like some heavy stuff must be going on. Is it good stuff or bad stuff? Presumably the underwriters think it's good for that much cash. And the news release did start "we are pleased to announce". Looks like investing in startups is a game of ever escalating stakes. Have we been waiting while the underwriters took a deep breath before commiting to this? Can we manage the same deep breaths ourselves, assuming the documentation stacks up?

(Looks like you must be right, TheOne. I seem to have picked this up within an hour or two. The internet is just too easy to monitor. On the other hand, is this good news or bad, who knows!)

[simla]

I cannot say I am feeling entirely relaxed about this. I'm sure it is fabulous news for the company making future profits, but less comfortable with where it leaves shareholders who appear to lose control of the company if we do not front up with truckloads of cash. I will certainly be reading the documentation very carefully.

[simla]

What is this? Stunned silence? Cheer up guys, life usually works out in the end anyway. The most likely explanation of this is that a dilution of 40% will be matched by growth well in excess of that because of the extra investment in the bigger markets. And if it works out otherwise than that, well the chances are still that it will be okay one way or another. And even if the very worst happens, and this does not work out well ... well, we all know Blis is a risk, and life always goes on anyway. I'm certainly on alert over this, but my optimism remains. Just sitting on the shareholding anyone currently has is still likely to work out.

[Oman]

Well Simla ...yes a bit stunned. This was the risk in the background now entering stage front. The big fish turned to hungry shark.

I expected the 'big fish' to have 20% but not a nearly 40% holding. Basically in order to survive BLT has sold a huge hunk of the business to the 'cornerstone' shareholder.

I also notice that the need a $1/2m load facility to cover running costs, so the sales aren't that wonderful which clarifies the hopeful thinking some of us may have had, but they do expect to be able to pay interest to the preference shareholders ...which is probably mostly to the cornerstone guy again.

My guess is that Barry was pretty much forced into this deal in order to keep the cashflow going until sales pick up.

[simla]

Yes, Oman. You put your finger on the alarming bit in this announcement: what are the intentions of the underwriters? Of course, if we all put in enough money, they will remain small fish. But how likely is that in the current circumstances?

Well, in part, that depends on what we read in the offer document. There are two broad possibilities here. One is that the company needs cash, and that things are not that rosy, possibly even quite down. The other, however, is that things are very rosy and that big wads of cash are needed to keep the company going through an expansion. Now, if the news was bad, why would the underwriters be trying to take a bigger stake of a losing proposition (or any stake at all, as they seem to be under no obligation)? So I'm inclined to think that Barry will be selling us a happy story. (What I expect to be missing though is any communication from the underwriters about their intentions, which will be a real elephant in the room if so. If we are to vote these people an interest that will drown out most opposition, decency would dictate that they tell us why we should.)

If the news is good, then maybe existing shareholders will put in money. After all, if profits are awaiting, then a 10% dividend and participation in increasing share price is a better deal than offered pretty much anywhere else at present, subject to the uncertainty of three years conversion. The trouble is that the deal is so overwhelming that it is hard to feel that putting money in is going to change the overall ownership stakes much, which will discourage a lot of people from even trying.

Although the underwriters seem to have a staggeringly good deal here, 10% dividend and wads of shares at 4 cents as I read it, yet they do not get to stop other shareholders participating in the future unless they successfully launch a full takeover. I would hope there are enough shareholders who would refuse any such offer given how far we've all come, in which case the future goes on.

There are 3 questions on the table at present: 1. Do we vote this down? 2. If passed, do we put in money? 3. What is the outlook for minority shareholders after all this is done (since the outlook for the company and the outlook for shareholders are starting to look slightly divergent)?

[THEONE]

Hi, its just me posting, im in Auckland.
Its the only share i hold and I have acquired a decent holding.
Thats why i only post about blis.
I am interested in others though for different reasons

GPG-Long term hold, diversified
NZO-Long term hold
PVO-Market Capitilisation really low, rights issue? requires more research though.
GEN-anyone Know about reverse takeovers, for all the tax losses?
SKC-Maybe good to short, I think is overpriced looking at NTA, plus casino looks very quiet lately.

Some shares I have held in past:
GPG
CEN
AIA
BRY woops first share
SKC
BPC
WRI

But in future i am very keen on having a balanced portfolio, using risk managemt techniques and stop loss.
Looking into trends etc

BLT rights issue Kinda remains me of the Dragons Den, giving up alot of equity to get a smaller share of a bigger pie.
Most of the time i think it is good to do a deal with the dragons.
Hopefuly blis with substantialy more funds can proced more aggresively.
Blis just got 300k in sales in november and 400k from edinburgh in december, i find it
strange they need to borow another 500K?
Also read they expected to recieve 750K from Nestle in december?

Admitedly it is a bit depressing knowing that i dont have the available funds
to take up all my rights even if i wanted to.
I have so much invested already i dont really want to buy anymore, plus i doubt you will
be able to sell any rights on market.
Plus I think it will be a few years yet till blis starts to make any decent profit.
But i am realistic in todays market it is difficult to raise funds, and Blis would have
very limited options,
Barry and some of the directors also have decent shareholdings, so i have faith
they are doing what they think is best, They do need to raise funds to grow.
I almost certainly will vote in favour.
Eion Edgar said in ODT he believed in products and wanted blis to remain Dunedin owned.
Will be interesting to read the prospectus!

[simla]

That bit in the ODT was interesting, thanks TheOne. I do wish Barry would put into the shareholder announcements the stuff he puts into the ODT! In particular, it said, "shareholders would also be asked to approve an option for Edinburgh to buy an additional one million preference shares if they could not get an adequate stake from the initial offer", which is a far more reassuring version than they can just have the million because they feel like it. I wonder if the vote will have that nicety in it though.

However, putting aside other concerns, this does threaten to be the moment of seriously good news we have been waiting for. An expansion of this size is presumably based on some fairly solid cash flow projections.

[Chippie]

Thanks for pointing out the ODT article. It was worth a read.
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/42207/blis-seeks-funds-eyes-edinburgh-major-shareholder

Specifically
"Blis would use the $3 million for some capital expenditure, working capital and to secure more regulatory approval, including permission to use its flagship Blis K12 in food."

Based on recent events I am leaning towards this being a positive announcement. I think the "lions den" analogy is appropriate in this case. The company needs capital to take the immediate opportunities and Edinburgh Equity (Eion Edgar and Dunedin businessman Tony Offen) want more of the pie.

Even when the additional shares are converted there will only be just over 200M shares on issue. So even if they are aspiring/projecting earnings of only $2m p/a it would justify a share price significantly higher than todays. If it is $20m p/a then exisiting shareholders will all be smiling.

For me I need to decide if I am prepared to sell other investments to fund this rights issue or if I will just sit tight (if only I had enough cash to be a dragon)

[simla]

Could be interesting watching the share price for the next few weeks. Theoretically, the rights issue has just set a bench mark of 4 cents.

Not so simple though.

(a) For a start, some people may be keen to sell up and just get out now, assuming this is bad news.
(b) Those who assume good news may think the preference shares are the way to go. After all, they pay a 10% coupon, which beats the current dividend, and they theoretically participate in any share price increase too.
(c) But, if we assume a $1 preference share is 25 shares equivalent, then 10 cents is just 0.4 cents per share, and there looks to be no participation in dividends till the three years is up. If the news is good, real dividends may be well in advance of that by 3 years.
(d) Those who want liquidity may feel the preference shares will not trade well (I suspect they will be fine myself, once profit is reached).
(e) If the preference shares turn out not to trade well, then real shares are the better option if you expect good times ahead.
(f) The presence of the funding in the rights issue should imply a good future for the actual shares anyway.
(g) people may feel it is now or never, that if this is good news, the share price is just going to start marching up now, and keep marching up.

Add to that the uncertainty until the actual issue document comes out with either good or bad news. And the slight uncertainty the issue will proceed. (Yeah. Like shareholders ever do anything when acting as a group except vote in everything put to them! Still, you never know.) And finally mix in the ever present problem of truly, truly awful world conditions.

So, will the price go down? Or will the price go up? My guess, just a guess, is it will go down in the short term, then start to pick up, perhaps quite strongly if the news is good.

[simla]

We seem to have missed this one. Don't know how long it has been there. Described as "Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry Berry Flavor"

http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=49254&productNumber=49254&category=28

http://www.naturesplus.com/products/photos/49254.jpg

Interesting to reflect, though, that both of these Nature's Plus products appear to be just repackaging of Blis as we already have it. If Blis really is having impact in the neutraceutical market - which is surely food additives - then neither of these qualify. Suggesting these are not indicative of the news that we are hoping for.

[simla]

That was a snappy letter from Blis offering us all discounts on Blis BioRestore. Very proactive. Perhaps we are being guinea pigs to try out on line sales? Have people noticed that the Blis website has also been redesigned, heaps better in my opinion. The website also states, "BLIS products will shortly be sold through IPOS Pharmacies in Ireland", suggesting negotiations but no actual sales during these last few months.

Offers to buy Blis shares have evaporated, so at least some people are obviously saving their cash to buy the preference shares. The question is, how many? If the offer document is looking promising, I expect to put at least some of the money in. The fact that Blis have taken time to redo their website, and seemingly are about to launch online sales, suggests that this company is far from rolling over dead.

[THEONE]

Hi Simla what letters that? I never recieved it.
Any new info?
As has been shown br dr katz and dr speiser online sales work well.
I have also seriously considered it myself.

[emearg]

Hi Simla what letters that? I never recieved it.
Any new info?
As has been shown br dr katz and dr speiser online sales work well.
I have also seriously considered it myself.

The letter was offering shareholders the opportunity to buy BioRestore at a discounted price. It is available for $9.95 instead of the retail $24

The offer is available online. They have created a personal website for each shareholder.

Try going to yours...

www.yourfirstandlastname.myblis.co.nz e.g www.bobsmith.myblis.co.nz

You pay through PayPal. Shipping is $2.50 and seems to be a flat rate no matter how many units you buy.

Personally I will be buying a few bottles as I have found the ThroatGuard a good way to keep colds away. As a self employed person, having a day off sick costs me a lot, so a bit spent on products that work(like K12) is an absolute no brainer. I think of it as cheap insurance...

[emearg]

We seem to have missed this one. Don't know how long it has been there. Described as "Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry Berry Flavor"

http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=49254&productNumber=49254&category=28

http://www.naturesplus.com/products/photos/49254.jpg



I don't think we missed it. When you posted this comment I had a look. It was listed as a new product on their site. Also, when I re-ran a search on their site for 'K12' it returned two products. The week before when I had had originally run the search it only returned one product.

From zero to two products in as many months. That is pretty fast work isn't it?

[emearg]

Interesting to reflect, though, that both of these Nature's Plus products appear to be just repackaging of Blis as we already have it. If Blis really is having impact in the neutraceutical market - which is surely food additives - then neither of these qualify. Suggesting these are not indicative of the news that we are hoping for.

I'm not quite sure I agree they are just repackaging of existing Blis products? But perhaps one will be able to say that about many of the products to come out in the future that contain K12? Anyways, I think the really important thing here is that a manufacturer is including the ingredient Salivarius K12 in two new products that are available for sale in hundreds(or perhaps thousands based on the look I had at their shop locater tool on their website) of shops in the United Kingdom and the United States. They are two markets that Blis hasn't been sold before(with the exception of the Fresh Breath Kit in the US).

I presume we can thank Frutarom for this? They are now selling K12 as an ingredient to manufacturers to include in their products? These two products support this theory?

As I see it, this is exactly the kind of news I have been hoping for?

I am however very happy to hear much more good news! ;-)

[simla]

Thanks Emearg. What I meant was that these products are K12 as a tablet bought in a bottle, whereas I think the aim is to sell it as an additive to bulk products, like food, maybe toothpaste. Then we are talking a smaller profit on mass sales as opposed to a bigger profit on probably very much smaller sales, relatively speaking. However, my wife tells me that the Nature's Plus brand is "one of the very good ones", or some such, so it will be fascinating to find out if they have added much to sales. Blis is pretty cagey about giving away detail though, so we may never really find out.

I hope we get an idea of sales to date in the coming announcement. Surely we will? Have Nature's Plus made any real headway in that time? Have other manufacturers come on the scene that we haven't heard about? Has Ireland bought in some significant stock, even though not on the shelf yet? (I can't see the sales offer to shareholders making much difference. There are/were about 2500 shareholders. Even if each bought $20, that's still only $50,000.) Or has the slump proved a real problem? In short, are Blis waiting so long over this offer just because it is a big job, or because there is news, good or bad? (The date of 31 March is pretty unusual, too - could that possibly mean shareholders will have time pressure, a sort of now-or-never thing?)

[simla]

Another week with no news release. Not sure this augurs well for short term sales. While I remain confident that Blis has a good future from ongoing solid growth, nevertheless a current drop in sales of 60% plus would swallow up a good wallop of future growth, and certainly delay positive cash flow by quite some time. The world is certainly a whole lot more closed in than it was only 6 months ago. Still, we'll see.

[apostle 95]

To Simla

Have you accessed the BLIS online shareholder discount offer? I am a very long and large holding/ long suffering supporter of BLT and its research, but I have been unable to access the site despite , many times , keying in the www.xxx.myblis.co.nz address.

I emailed BLIS twice, even senting an attached copy of my shareholder letter ( dated 24 February) outlining my failure to reach the page, but have not been extended the courtesy of a reply. If customers and prospective customers receive this level of support, it is little wonder that the company is struggling to gain sales that will put it in profit

[simla]

Apostle95, yes, I have ordered and received the product in a perfectly professional/normal online purchase. I also emailed them with feedback (info@blis.co.nz) and got a reply next day. I have emailed info@ over other matters in the past and always received prompt and polite answers. Perhaps they are busy making up thousands of rights issue envelopes for shareholders? Anyway, I know it is frustrating getting no reply to email, but they really are helpful in my experience, so I can only suggest you try again with the email, trying the info@ email address if you have used another perhaps. They have a phone number on their website, too.

Great to hear another long term holder. There must be something in our genes - perhaps Blis could patent that next!

[simla]

I pondered whether sales were down 60% plus. But after all, we already know that revenue was at least $600,000 as at November, compared to last year's revenue of $878,000. I was going to write some optimistic logic next, but I've been told off before by you guys for doing that! But it could be okay news yet, couldn't it? Good news? Bad news? We'll have to wait and see what the reality is.

[emearg]

I pondered whether sales were down 60% plus. But after all, we already know that revenue was at least $600,000 as at November, compared to last year's revenue of $878,000. I was going to write some optimistic logic next, but I've been told off before by you guys for doing that! But it could be okay news yet, couldn't it? Good news? Bad news? We'll have to wait and see what the reality is.

Simla, feel free to share your logic and each reader will decide how optimistic it is. Some might think it is pessimistic. Everyone has an opinion.

My opinion is that the company is going in the right direction. We have a business man in charge. He has a background in the ingredients business. He has contacts. This was made clear with the Nestle agreement. Personally I think this is the future of the company IF it is to have a BIG future. It will slowly grow through its retail business, but the probiotics inclusion in other products is where the big money will be. They won't sell each unit for much, but the margin will be large compared to their retail range.

With a backer willing to stump up three million, I don't think we need to worry for another wee while. As I commented once before, Barry has big motivation from having such a big holding, not to mention his personal drive to be successful. Clearly he is doing some pretty good things, one just needs to be patient. At a market cap. of 7 million, it looks like pretty cheap buying IF the company makes it as big as it possibly could. Or it could be money down the drain. I bought a few more today. No points for guessing which way I swing on this...

[simla]

Emearg. Two of us willing to say out loud that we think the future of Blis could be very big, so long as it survives the course. This could be dangerous, we could work ourselves into a lather in no time! That was one of the reasons I did not put that piece of logic in. I think it is constructive for investors, who have to make investment decisions, to swap broad lines of reasoning (such as you just did), and to exchange ideas when things are not clear. But projecting possible futures carries less certainty obviously, so I decided it didn't need saying this time, we'll know the actuals soon enough.

Actually, I am not sure how much more conjecture can be made after this point. The company has moved from getting a reliable product out the door, to experimenting with different sales mechanisms, to reaching out for distributors with a plan in mind. But the next step really boils down to consumer reaction, and I cannot see that we can have too much to speculate about that beyond hearing the actual six monthly figures after the event. The long process of watching the company get the ship ready to actually leave port and start to sail the markets is now almost over. Now we will watch the ship disappear over the horizon, and then perhaps we will only hear dispatches from time to time.

[emearg]

Emearg. Two of us willing to say out loud that we think the future of Blis could be very big, so long as it survives the course.

That is true...we are both prepared to say this. We don't get fed a lot of information as you point out so perhaps we are just being optimistic fools?

One of the things that gives me comfort is two investors who have had the opportunity to conduct due diligence and therefore have accessed to a lot of information are willing to put up, up to $3,500,000(last year's 500k plus up to 3mill for the rights issue).

And as noted before, with Barry having 4 million shares in BLIS, I'm pretty relaxed about having a fair few to.

If one searches the medical journals on the net, there is a lot of evidence showing the efficacy and safety of K12. The research goes back a number of years. It has been widely studied by many. K12 is not the output of a dishonest marketing department...

And now with Frutarom, BLIS has a partner that can take the product and do something with it as an ingredient. Other than flogging some of it(as mentioned in the announcement last year) they are flooding the net with information about it. I have no doubt their sales people are busily trying to sell it to their customers.

And there is always the possibility the Nestle thing will lead to something. It is still too early to tell, but there is potential for upside because of it.

And as noted in previous announcements Barry is working on other international marketing and distribution agreements. While these things take time(usually longer than expected) I have little doubt there will be agreements, and associated business/revenue out of them over the next few months/years.

Then of course there is MIA...

[Oman]

Hi,

I noted in the announcement last week that the 'Investor' defaulted on the option to buy the shares he said he was to buy at 7 cps probably because it was cheaper to default and buy in at 1 dollar to get additional benefits such as a 6-monthly return and a good conversion rate in 3 years.

I'm reminded that these backers are just like bankers who want a good ROI. They don't have our interests at heart at all ...we are simply beneficiaries of their investment ...and big time losers if they don't help BLT out.

The way ahead looks okay to me. The business is sailing ahead to the markets as you say but I can see sharks in the water if we hit a rock.

The good news is that no one is selling BLT below 5 cps at present ...even if there are only a few BLT buyers. A little good news and that could change quickly.

[simla]

Oman, I think there is good reason to feel we might be pretty lucky with our new cornerstone investors.

Firstly, on Page 21 of this forum, I quoted that bio for one of them, and he sounds a really decent chap, you must agree. Secondly, this is little New Zealand, and there is just so much more ability here to know the character of people you are doing business with. Thirdly, all Barry's other business partner choices seem to be really good. And fourthly, they ARE stumping up with the cash when needed. And let's not forget the obvious: we should be grateful that there are some NZers willing to come to Blis' aid when needed. So, all up, I'm inclined to think our new cornerstone shareholders are actually yet another asset in the Blis story.

But, yes, it would of course be nice to hear more of their relationship with Blis in the coming announcement since they are now necessarily a factor to consider in our own investment decisions with Blis.

[simla]

Emearg. I agree with your analysis. However, I confess I am struggling to give meaning to "MIA". I'm sure I'm missing something obvious, but I just can't think of anything!

[Oman]

Hi Simla, I have no problem with what you say.

In Thailand so much business is about luck and good luck etc. Personally I have no time for idea of being lucky at all. Business is about having the right people in the right positions and making sound decisions. For myself I much prefer to see the accounts, sales data and cost of sales etc. rather than guessing how things are going.

I'm a BLT optimist ...but maybe a bit of a sceptic too when investors stump up big money. They do that only because they expect ROI profits ...but what happens if things go badly? I don't think for a moment that they will consider others as they grab back the seed money they invested.

Barry is doing fine but we need to see more data from BLT so we can make rational investment decisions. Perhaps there will be more info at the coming meeting?

[emearg]

Hi,

I noted in the announcement last week that the 'Investor' defaulted on the option to buy the shares he said he was to buy at 7 cps probably because it was cheaper to default and buy in at 1 dollar to get additional benefits such as a 6-monthly return and a good conversion rate in 3 years

The original notice was from April last year. I am wondering if the default took place quite a while ago for who knows what reasons?? But if that is the case I am disappointed it took this long for us to be advised. The timing and reasons for the default are unknown, and I won't speculate.

Friday's announcement says the shares were partly paid at .05 and yet they say they are keeping the $25,000. At that rate it should be $250,000

I can feel an email to Barry coming on...

[emearg]

Emearg. I agree with your analysis. However, I confess I am struggling to give meaning to "MIA". I'm sure I'm missing something obvious, but I just can't think of anything!

GENERAL: BLT: New Patent for a New Probiotic Strain 10:33a.m.
BLT
15/08/2007
GENERAL

REL: 1033 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited

GENERAL: BLT: New Patent for a New Probiotic Strain

BLIS Technologies Ltd Announces a New Patent for a New Probiotic Strain.

BLIS Technologies Ltd (NZX: BLT), developer and manufacturer of BLIS K12, an
advanced oral probiotic for the prevention of upper airways infection and the
treatment of chronic bad breath, has recently announced that it been granted
US patent for its latest strain of advanced oral probiotic called "MIA".

"MIA is very closely related to our existing K12 range of probiotic products,
which is found in the New Zealand retail sector and was the active ingredient
behind a novel Australian halitosis product that recently appeared on the TV3
programme, Campbell Live " according to BLIS, Chief Scientific Officer, Dr
Chris Chilcott. "What makes MIA unique; however, is that this new strain has
been shown to be very effective in protecting teeth from dental plaque, which
is known to be a major contributor to tooth decay . We believe the new MIA
probiotic can be used to suppress levels of Streptococcus mutans, the
principal cause of dental plaques. Streptococcus mutans converts dietary
refined sugar to lactic acid. The lactic acid, in turn, erodes the mineral in
enamel and dentin, which weakens the tooth resulting in tooth decay.

Dr Chilcott indicated that dental caries or tooth decay, is a worldwide
epidemic that affects the majority of populations in both industrialized and
developing countries. According to the World Health Organization, tooth
decay is the most prevalent infectious disease, affecting approximately 5
billion people.
"This represents a major milestone in our research and development programme,
and sends a clear signal that BLIS is not a single product company" Dr Barry
Richardson, BLIS CEO, said today, "we have been planning a solid platform of
technology that addresses a broad array of potential application areas."
BLIS has indicated that they have already started early discussions with
some major international companies around the commercial opportunities for
their new probiotic, MIA; but would not be drawn on specific details at this
early stage. BLIS Technologies Ltd did however recently announce that it had
entered into "letter of intent" to evaluate and potentially develop global
product and market opportunities based on BLIS's advanced probiotics
technology, with Dutch food ingredient giant, DSM Nutritionals (formally
Roche Vitamins). It is expected that this would also include opportunities
for the new MIA strain.

[Chippie]

where did you get the press release 15 March, 10:33am?

I could not find it on the BLT site?

cheers

[simla]

Thanks, Emearg. Chippie, I presume you've noticed now that it was an old release. I'd forgotten the name of that one, which has hardly been mentioned publicly since, but presumably has hardly been forgotten by Blis. I wonder if it will get a mention in the current papers. Blis has so many useful irons in the fire, but still has to put together the right platform to make use of them. No doubt we will all be reading the coming documentation with much interest.

[simla]

Okay, you wouldn't describe those rights documents as insipid! Reaction should be interesting. But before we get in to the detail, let's remember the big picture here.

Let's first say a very big thank you to Barry for working tirelessly.

Secondly, let's also say a very big thank you to the entire team at Blis for working hard for yet another year. Blis' history has been a long one, but you never hear anybody at Blis complaining, nor slacking off at any point. I think we should specifically remember the Board who have hung in there so long. So,thank you all at Blis too.

And thirdly, let's remember to say thank you to us shareholders. We've put up all the money that's made this whole thing happen, and then waited and waited. No doubt many of us have missed that money.

And fourthly, let's thank the underwriters for fronting up with the cash at a difficult time.

[emearg]

Thanks, Emearg. Chippie, I presume you've noticed now that it was an old release. I'd forgotten the name of that one, which has hardly been mentioned publicly since, but presumably has hardly been forgotten by Blis. I wonder if it will get a mention in the current papers. Blis has so many useful irons in the fire, but still has to put together the right platform to make use of them. No doubt we will all be reading the coming documentation with much interest.

Yup, I knew it was old. I'm fairly familiar with several years worth of their announcements which is both good and bad. Good because I know what they have going, and bad because I get to see all the things that have hardly progressed or have fallen by the way side. Still, looking at the big picture is important, and the direction Barry is taking them strikes me as the right one. Having spent a number of years at the Dairy Board and then Fonterra I think I have a slight understanding of the potential of the ingredients approach, and the capability a player like Nestle has should they commercialise their infant solutions.

Patience is the key with this investment. That and Blis remaining solvent...

Anyways, interesting to see they mentioned MIA and also the topical solution they mentioned a while back. Obviously these haven't died a quiet death and are still being progressed.

Does the reaction/take up really matter? The rights are underwritten. Blis will get their cash. Who owns how much isn't that important to me.

[Oman]

Does the reaction/take up really matter? The rights are underwritten. Blis will get their cash. Who owns how much isn't that important to me.

Sorry to be taking the contary view so much but I think we need to downgrade the 'rosy future' a wee bit. The Independent report mentions that BLT will probably not survive without the cash from the RI ...so it's important that it's underwritten. The report also mentions that the underwriter's fee is excessive which doesn't surprise me as BLT is in a tight corner and the white knight is actually an astute business group that will milk this business as much as they can.

This report tells us that sales are probably promising but not that good at present ...but enough to justify paying a 10% return to preference share holders.

I'm now a tad confused by the issue default announcement that seems to be missed by the independent report that gives the impression that the full issue was taken up at 7.2 cps. Have I missed something somewhere, or do we have two messages and possible miscommunication between BLT and the independent report here?

There is also a hint that BLT is about to risk being taken over by the ever so helpful white knight. Sorry, but I don't share the opinion that they are here to help BLT ...I think they are here because they see a good profit in the deal and pure self interest is the motivation. They have the chance to take the company over cheaply ...allow it to grow ...and then onsell at a huge profit ...and that looks a fairly high probability to me.

The small shareholders such as the contributors to this thread may not get the big returns they hoped for in this scenario.

[Oman]

One more note and then I'll stay silent and watch ...like one or two prominent contributors to this thread seem to have done in the last year.

I just reread the independent report and see that the shareholders either cough up some more cash and maintain their % holding, or they allow Edinburgh Associates to take the full 3m shares + 1m option ...and let the the white knight take their holding to a full 83% of the company leaving us others with 16% and effectively no say whatsoever in the company direction after 2012.

Edinburgh will also have at least 1 director on the board so they'll have access to all inside information which will be very useful to them if they have take-over expectations.

The alternative is for shareholders to not agree to the issue and accept the fact that the business is doomed. So we have little choice but to pay up ...this all sounds a little too familiar. The need for more capital from shareholders comes up every two years or so.

I doubt that two big shareholders will pay for shares (Otago Uni and Southern Hire) so Edinburgh will most likely get those preference shares by default ...and that's how they'll get full control of the business ...and we can do almost nothing about it!

[simla]

Oman, I am still considering my own reaction. But a few points now. That worst case (83%) only happens if nobody puts in any money and the conversion is at 1 cent in 3 years, neither very likely. The more likely figure is 30% as I read it (p21 evaluation, 25% to 50% shareholder uptake, option exercised). Neither does it actually say the company is doomed if the issue is rejected (although I do not see it being voted down) but rather "[if rejected] the company's ability to consolidate and further expand ... will be severely constrained" (p48 explanatory notes). Nor need it happen every 2 years. "$3 million [is] the company's working capital needs for the next 3 years ... in the absence of [meaningful product sales]" (p13 evaluation). Too, "the Company understands that [the underwriters interest...] is in securing an investment stake...for the long term." which is reasonably reassuring (p15 explanatory notes).

But yes, it certainly is an interesting proposition all round. And, yes, there are some voices that it would be nice to hear again.

[simla]

Also as initial reaction, I think we might note the very positive news contained in the documents. There is far more on the boil than we have been informed of, and the potential for fairly rapid growth in sales seems excellent if mainly unrealised still. Even in the worst financial climate for decades, Blis has continued to grow revenue. Indeed, the hard-to-read graph of revenues vs expenses (p27 explanatory notes) appears to show a loss this financial year of $300,000. Since the company had a loss of $400,000 first half, that is potentially a maiden half-year trading profit even now.

Points of note:

USA : 3 products out already, and more products expected shortly.(p42) On target so far for: 6 large neutraceutical manufacturers, 1 major food manufacturer, and one OTC pharmacy manufacturer by end 2009. (p42) A further 6 products could be introduced in 2009.(p45) Obviously any short term cash flow is expected to come from here.

Nestle: The commercialisation of the Nestle deal is described as due late 2010 (p36 explanatory notes) which is getting closer. "introduction in 2011 or sooner of infant foods". (p46) Timing of revenue from trials in the mean time remain unspecified, but payments of $1 million over the next two years probable. (p37)

Australia: Australian sales down quite a bit. But apparently Blis can sell into food in NZ and Australia now. (p40,p44 explanatory notes). The company has developed a yoghurt form? (p43)

NZ: Unspecified 2009 marketing strategy to address decline in sales.

Asia: Quite a bit of activity in Asia, but we are not told what much of it is. Many (some?) Asian products expected in late 2009 or 2010 apparently.

Europe: Much planning, no imminent sales growth expected, apart from perhaps Ireland.

General: "significant increase forecast" in manufacturing needs (p44) Fonterra doing production (p44) and second Indian company being added.

Future: Company still committed to being "a leading oral probiotic company [in] oral health care". Company to be research and marketing based. p45

Revenue: absolutely no targets or projections were made. "revenues are increasing due to external market exposure"(p25), despite massive world down turn. Much mention of expected products coming to market, however, as listed above.

Incidentally, I thought the analysis of what each Blis product was for was more information than I have ever seen on the subject!

Putting aside, then, any reactions to the structure of the issue, and assuming the issue proceeds, I would now say that the company has actually ceased to be a "biotech startup" and is now simply a "biotech company". It has product, management, marketing, distribution and funds. It may announce a maiden half-year trading profit now, or otherwise very likely in six months time. Indeed, if sales grow steadily during this year, as is surely possible despite the times, I could even see the company perhaps paying a token dividend next year. In fact, I would even dare to observe that the outlook for the company after this funding is obtained is so good that the share price is low as of today. (Yes, I do notice that nobody currently bidding thinks so!)

So the news in these documents is very positive for the future of the company, regardless of any thoughts on the structure of the issue itself. I cannot see current shareholders not gaining any benefit from this news regardless of what happens next.

[Oman]

...the company's ability to consolidate and further expand ... will be severely constrained"

Hi Simla.

To me the above is an advisor's euphemism for 'Doomed' ...which no one dare say because of self fulfilling prophecy and the litigation risk. My other point was not that we will be asked for money but that we have already been asked to fund more money on a roughly 2 year cycle in the past and this is just another case.

[simla]

Okay, so what about the rights issue itself?

Obviously there are negatives, from the point of view of the shareholders.

Firstly, there is the uncertainty of the outcome of ownership. The underwriters could gain anywhere between 5% and 83% of the company by 2012 (p19 evaluation). Pretty obviously this level of uncertainty is a very unsettling proposition for shareholders.

Secondly, there is uncertainty of the effect of the underwriters taking a significant seat in the company's affairs. They will apparently soon gain a Board seat (p22 evaluation) and will anyway be the largest shareholder (existing large shareholders, p18 evaluation). There appears to be no public statement of intention from them, although the explanatory notes state "the Company understands that [the underwriter's interest] is in securing an investment stake...for the long term." (p15)

Thirdly, there is the uncertainty of the effect of the significant dilution for existing shareholders. Against that, the company has put up discussion of expansion, but has made no comment on the financial gains that might be expected in return for the entirely predictable dilution.

Despite the very complex paperwork presented to us, I think those are the only three problems from the shareholders point of view (I ignore the obvious pain of putting up money - a decision whether to invest more or not is neither positive nor negative in truth, the dilution has happened anyway.) These negatives boil down simply to considerable uncertainty of what this will lead to. Of course, any funding proposition at this moment in history would involve tricky decisions.

Against those negatives, the question that I think leaps out at us - for each to decide for themselves - is, why did the company ask for quite so much money at the cost of such uncertainty? I did not myself read any really urgent suggestion the money is wanted for anything much other than expansion (p12 evaluation, p46 explanatory notes, p48), and indeed we are apparently told the $3 million is sufficient to last 3 years (p13 evaluation), and it is also described as a "critical aspect of the Company's strategy for the future" (p46). Did I miss more urgent sentences?

To me, the answer to that question must relate to the set of positive news (some of which I summarised in an earlier post). I think it is likely the Board looked at the response in America, then considered the rest of the world, then said quite simply, "this is huge, we'd be fools to let this past, but it's going to cost money". I think they very likely thought a couple of other things then: 1. The shareholders will get the reward, so it is fair to ask them to do some work now by providing money, 2. And if any don't want to/can't do that, we've got an underwriter who will do it, so they can still benefit with their existing shares. All of which would be very reasonable things for a Board to think.

If that is how things do stand - if - then the questions for us are: 1. Do we agree that asking for so much money is warranted by the scale of the rewards envisioned, and 2. Are we content with the risks inherent in the funding proposition made? In proposing that, each must also decide whether this issue is a matter of company survival or an investment in a future, or perhaps somewhere between the two.

I am not yet sure of my own response to these questions. However, that is the viewpoint that seems relevant to me. Please tell me if I have misunderstood anything. And does anyone have a different set of questions or point of view to propose to help us formulate a logical response to this rights issue?

[simla]

No doubt you guys will chip in when you're ready ... !

Yesterday, I proposed that a logical response to this issue required answering two questions: 1. is the amount of money justified by the reward envisioned, and 2. are we content with the risk in this funding proposition. After much thought, I feel the answer for me is that I cannot answer either of those two questions. Simple as that. We just do not have any firm view of the outcome. No shareholder likes being that much in the dark, but in this case we just are.

In the absence of a logical answer, then we (or I) must fall back on instinct. In this case, that involves two main ideas for me: trusting people, and trusting life. As for trusting people, Blis has been making a lot of good decisions lately and my instinct is that they are therefore probably making another one now. As for trusting life, that is a matter of accepting that this is a risk. It may go wrong, but other things in life will still go right if so, and on the whole life sorts out. Or such has been the history of life for me (which I assure you has had copious amounts of downside.)

Therefore, and fully aware of the potential for this to go wobbly, I expect to take a leap in the dark, and vote for it. Regrettably, any decision on whether to put money in is also going to have to be based on instinct, for me anyway. I haven't decided that one yet.

(You guys sure do go quiet when there's big things afoot!)

[simla]

By the way, Oman, I think Blis made two allotments last year. One was to the underwriters (26 Aug), but the other was to someone not identified (15 Apr), and it is the latter that seems to have had a hitch - or that's how it looks to me.

I am not ignoring your remarks on the issue. I think they reflect the broad and considerable uncertainty of outcome attached to this whole thing, as I discussed above. I think we're each just going to have to go with our instincts on this one.

[apostle 95]

Simla

I am between a rock and a hard place.

I have supported BLT from its inception, buying some of my holding at approximately 60cps, and I am now faced with the prospect of having to come up with well in excess of $10,000 to cover my share of the Rights Issue

The product ( K12) is very good, being benign, natural and effective, and logic would indicate that if bottled water can tempt a wide consumer base, something eminiantly more beneficial, should have a wider customer following than it presently commands. But in 9 years, that has yet to happen.

I am concerned. Underwriters normally claim a fee of 1.5% to 5%. Edinburgh Equity Nominee Limited are claiming from 5.1% ( page 13) to possibly 13.3% ( page 14) in the Simmons Appraisal Report in order to underwrite the issue. On the risk /return continuum, they must perceive their involvement to be so highly speculative that they need to be ( indecently?) compensated for the risk of their involvement.

I am concerned. the Preferential Shares offer a gross dividend of 10% per annum ( page12) but on page 16 the Simmons document refers to a situation where Preferential shares and dividends payable as "ordinary shares on conversion date" . This would seem to indicate that an annual dividend generation of 10% is tentative until conversion of the Preferential Shares in 2012.

I am concerned. In the worst case scenario, where we ( referred to as Non-associated Shareholders) fail to subscribe to the issuance, Edinburgh will effectively control 83.54% of the Company from its present 5.21% holding, effectively holding the position to buy all others out at a price that they would have power to manipulate in their favour, after May 2012.

The one ( minute) consoling note is that, if the Issue goes ahead, I would have until 2012 to cut my losses and sell up, hopefully at a price a little better than the price presently listed on NZX.

I will attend the meeting on 31 March with an open mind, but see no point in calling on the provisions of Sec.110 the Companies Act 1993 to have the Company buy my shares if I vote against the resolution.

I realise that the above comments are of little help to anyone ( including myself ) in reaching a decision on the Rights Issue, but merely my initial reaction after first reading of documents last evening. It is a tough call, as it will be for FPA and NPX holders in days to come. We are in completely new territory, with regard to the present credit squeeze. Do we cut our losses or bail out the company and hope for an upturn?

Apostle95

[simla]

Apostle95, I totally get the hard place bit. There is no doubt that this is a challenging issue in the wide range of possible outcomes. On some of your concerns: It does not say the dividend will be paid in shares, as I read it, just that they could be - which I take to be a precaution, but neither does it actually say they will be paid in cash that I saw, although "paid semi-annually" pretty obviously implies that expectation.

Secondly, there is no actual need to buy the preference shares. Yes, it probably suits existing shareholders if there is a good turnout on the preference shares, but existing shares will still participate in the future anyway. If, if, the resolution is passed, then the company has enough cash anyway.

Thirdly, each person has to decide for themselves what they think of the underwriters' position. For myself, I think they are getting an excellent reward, but they are getting it because they can stump up the cash at a unique moment in history - plenty of other very needy people and firms just can't get any cash at present. That you are finding the cash call uncomfortable probably reflects lots of shareholders, which demonstrates why Blis is paying a good premium for cash now. Talk of a takeover is definitely unsettling, but if someone was going to do that any time soon, I don't think they would be underwriting this issue when it would be more profitable to let the company fail, nor would they have just lent the company money I think. You also have to remember that Barry and the Board have their own shares at stake here too, so they must be feeling comfortable.

Also, as I mentioned above somewhere, the 83% (80% in the corrected mailed version) not only requires shareholders to buy nothing, but a market price of 1 cent in 3 years, which will only happen if the company is frankly not worth owning at the time. I actually think there will be a fair turnout here from shareholders. There's always some people around with cash. The terms of the offer are really very attractive if we believe things are progressing well. Not only a 10% coupon, but if the Blis share price goes up to just 10 cents say, the preference shares have a theoretical value of $2.50 and will be listed on the market - or that's my understanding. And existing shareholders who have cash can oversubscribe too, if they have that much cash.

I cannot advise anyone what to do here, the outcome is just too wide open. But personally I think a useful approach is to assume the cornerstone shareholder will and up with a good hunk of the company, but there will be plenty of room for the rest of us. That is what the Board obviously are trying to achieve. And to also assume the company will show good sales growth this year, and a lot better the following year. Sales grew this year despite the Australian sales dropping over 50% and NZ sales declining. That means the new US sales are already contributing well in quite a short time, and there are plenty of developments there with more products. Revenue was reported as 600,000 in November, but is listed at over 900,000 YTD in these papers (graph) just three months later. And don't forget the million dollars expected from Nestle over 2 years. And Ireland must generate some sort of revenue. So, yes, it has been a long time getting here, but I think it's time does appear to have arrived.

Will it be good actually though? I don't know, but I think the rather frightening scale of this issue should not be allowed to hide the potentially very good news it accompanies. I theorised some months ago that the growth potential of Blis should be able to exceed even the huge downturn, and so far that theory is still looking plausible.

But the above is necessarily just opinion, things may turn out far worse, and we must each form our own opinion in the end.

[simla]

Since you guys are still thinking quietly, I'll chip in one more observation. By opening in the US market (and Nature's Plus, at least, seems to sell into other countries anyway) Blis is selling into a market 10 times the population it was selling in to a year ago (say 300 million people - and yes, the US market is fragmented, so that is a difficult claim, but the NZ and Australian markets had not been swamped either.) Then, if you read the "Commercial Background" (p25 forward) Blis apparently expects to be selling in to markets about 100 times as big by the end of next year (countries with maybe 2 billion people total), by adding in a swag of Asia. Yes, bigger markets carry bigger marketing problems, so it's not that easy. Then Nestle at least is expected to carry it (presumably world wide) in infant food the following year. Also, if the company has really got a yoghurt product available (p40, under North Asia) which is saleable in Australia now, I would have thought such a product could go to market reasonably quickly, considering yoghurt companies seem to switch new yoghurts in and out of the market all the time. Who knows what the economics of producing it for yoghurt is, but yoghurt would obviously have much greater unit sales than little bottles of pills. Of course, all new products take time to stage.

Consider that Blis would be in a tidy position if it just doubled sales. It is now three days since I read the documents on the Blis website. At first the impact of the sheer scale of the issue was very hard to get past. But slowly I have reached the opinion that the most likely outcome is that the underwriters are going to get a good hunk of the company, but that existing shareholders will still be fine (yes, it is just an opinion, a guess if you prefer, we won't know till the issue is over.) And now I am starting to focus on what excellent news is contained in the documents. By the end of next year, Blis apparently could be on sale in about a third of the world or more, and through a swag of outlets so that they each have an interest in the marketing of their own products. And meantime it is selling into a much bigger market already. Even in these awful times, this must surely change things completely from the present results. All shareholders must surely benefit from this, making a yes vote look a fairly rational choice. Then, the preference shares represent an opportunity for those who can to buy in more Blis shares (effectively) at an excellent price, a 10% coupon and market tradeable, if I read that correctly. You'll gather I'm starting to get "optimistic" again - I almost feel I should add the obvious disclaimer that, as we all do, and as you know, I own shares in the company!

Alas, as with all this stuff, this is just an opinion. The result of this rights issue is unknowable, nor the future sales of Blis. You will all be forming your own opinions. Maybe some of you will share them soon!

[Chippie]

I only just managed to read through all the documentation. There is a lot to consider.

This an absolute all or nothing proposition. Either BLT will come out as a once in lifetime investment or just another share to be written-off.

Not sure which way I will go on this one.

[Oman]

IThis an absolute all or nothing proposition. Either BLT will come out as a once in lifetime investment or just another share to be written-off.

Fully agree Chippie, but we have no choice but to approve the issue or the comapny is finished. Whether to pay the money for preference shares is a secondary issue.

It could work out extremely well if the white knight is genuinely supporting BLT ...and that may be the case. The meeting may give clues about motives, risks, and payback.

[Oman]

Okay ...the cheque softening campaign has begun! It looks so good I reckon everyone will cough up with cash ...and oversubscribe!

Top marks to Barry for his fund raising technique. Looks like break even is very near now.

http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Presentations/BLIS%20Technologies%20Presentation%20March%2009.pd f

[Chippie]

I agree that we have to approve the issue.

I am not so sure that people will oversubscribe though. Not a good time to be askign for money.

[simla]

A surprisingly muted conversation on this. All of us who have commented seem to have clearly decided to vote in favour of this rights issue ourselves. I guess we'll know what everyone else thinks in a week or so when the voting is announced.

[emearg]

It seems to me that voting against it will either slow down growth to the point where the company won't be worth owning a piece of, or the company will go into receivership sometime soon while when they run out of cash. Neither of those options make me want to vote against it.

To me, voting for it is the ONLY sensible option.

The underwriters ARE getting a good deal, more so if other existing shareholders don't take up their rights. Just how good a deal is up to other holders, and how well the company does share price wise over the next three years.

I will be taking up my rights.

I like where this company is going. I perceive the risk as diminishing. Barry is taking the company in the right direction, and with the money he will be able to continue executing his plan. With this money Blis will be around for at least another year or three...

The question I will be asking myself is should I oversubscribe and take a risk(probably pretty small) that I don't get extra preference shares or should I buy some rights when they start trading assuming they are available at an appropriate price and I can get adequate numbers?

[emearg]

The underwriters ARE getting a good deal, more so if other existing shareholders don't take up their rights. Just how good a deal is up to other holders, and how well the company does share price wise over the next three years.

I will be taking up my rights.

Interestingly(to me at least), if this issue wasn't underwritten I think it would be a complete failure. I sure as heck wouldn't be backing it in fear that I might be the only one who was willing to front up with more cash. This was the case in another capital raising I had the opportunity to participate in recently. I was wondering if I had lost the plot in supporting them so didn't subscribe. They raised the money they wanted...I missed out on getting some more shares in a company I believe in and being a 'loyal' shareholder. I still think it was the right decision based on what I knew. So well done Barry for giving existing shareholders certainty by getting it underwritten, even if the terms can be seen as rather favourable for the underwriter.

[simla]

Emearg, great to hear your confidence and optimism, particularly your being unsure about HOW to oversubscribe, rather than whether to!

Do you have any comments on the actual news in the documents? Yes, actual cash flow has only gone forward in a straight line (still excellent in current times, especially given the drop off first half), but the markets opening now, or expected to open soonish, verge on the exponential. I find it really strange that nobody has said a single word about that, when the scale of the news is so huge.

[simla]

What a fascinating question it is to ponder the current worth of a Blis ordinary share, after these announcements and with the rights attached (if they are, following a yes vote.)

Traditionally, the share price has gone down every time there is a rights issue and no profits to match. But that is not really the picture we have this time. Blis have several revenue streams on tap for the coming year: America has several products on the market now and more to follow quite soon apparently - not only ongoing sales, but startup purchases for first manufacture runs. Ireland is finally coming on tap. Nestle research payments appear to be going up. Marketing is commencing in NZ. Japan may join the fray this year. There is no knowing what this will lead to, of course, but with so much activity it seems unlikely revenue will go down from here on in, and may even instead grow quite strongly, even this year.

Consider then the current value of 45 shares, which is enough to buy one preference share which will probably convert into 25 shares later.

Say the current situation continues, and Blis doesn't make much profit. If the current share price is correct, and Blis shares have an underlying value of say 4 cents, then 45 shares are worth $1.80 (45 times 4 cents), and the preference share costs $1 to purchase, but converts later into 25 shares worth $1 in total. Net value: $1.80 ($1.80 + $1 - $1), and the current shares are still worth 4 cents therefore.

But what if ... what if the unthinkable happened, and Blis made 1 cent per share profit in the coming year, or $1.38 million profit over 138 million shares, just $100,000 per month roughly. Not particularly hard to imagine with the target market opening up, is it? Assume a PE of only 10, then the Blis ordinary share value could be 10 cents. Then, the 45 shares are worth 45 * 10 cents, or $4.50, which if attached to one preference share, carries a conversion of 25 shares at 10 cents, or $2.50. Subtract the $1 to buy the preference share, and those 45 shares have a theoretical net value of $6 ($4.50 + $2.50 -$1), which divides out at 13 cents a share with rights.

That is, anyone selling a share today might, just might, be selling a share worth 13 cents in a year's time if the preference share is bought now - three times the last sale price of 4.3 cents. (And with a PE of 15, I make that 21 cents a share with rights attached. At 2 cents profit per share, or $2.76 million total profit, $200,000 a month, it becomes 29 cents per share with rights at a PE of 10, and a massive 44 cents at a PE of 15, by my calculations - ten times the last sale price!)

What does that make a share worth today? The answer, as always: whatever someone is willing to pay for it!

I have laid out my calculations for others to check. Please say if I have made a mistake. But if the profit was 2 cents per share, the share price would be 30 cents with a PE of 15, so I think most of this comes from cheerfully assuming a profit in the first place, with extra for the preference shares going up as well. Obviously, I would be perfectly happy if these prices were to apply to my own share holding!

Obviously, too, this is all sheer pipe dreaming. There is no knowing what Blis sales will be this year. And these figures make no allowance for all sorts of things: sentiment, the preference share coupon, the world downturn, holding costs, conversion delayed 3 years, different PE ratios, discounted sale price for listed preference shares, etc.

But if this broad mathematics is correct - corrections anyone, I ask yet again? - it does demonstrate that we might have entered a very different arena here. Any bump up in Blis' revenue would quickly make a big difference. Bid and offer at the moment are 4.2 and 5 cents. Will the price change if the rights issue is voted in next week?

As I say, what a fascinating question it is to ponder the current worth of a Blis ordinary share! Comments, anyone?

[simla]

By the way, my previous post raises the question of why the Blis share price is where it is at. As noted earlier somewhere, several other companies have much higher share prices without making any profit to date. If my logic above is correct, the Blis share price should be moving. But it isn't moving. So the market apparently doesn't see it that way. So, how DOES the market see it? Is it a lack of publicity? Or has no one got the cash? Or am I missing something important here? Are we well ahead of the game here, or is everyone else right!

[Scuffer]

Could be the emporer has no clothes, but who is the little boy and who is running with the pack?

[Oman]

So the market apparently doesn't see it that way ...Or am I missing something important here? Are we well ahead of the game here, or is everyone else right!

Interesting question Simla. The price did actually move up today ...from 4.2 to 4.3 cps! Let's see how it all pans out in two weeks or so and then we may have an answer to the hypothetical questions.

[simla]

Yeah. The Blis share price and the Blis reported situation were starting to drift apart last year, and are starting to diverge quite strongly now. One of them is going to be proved to be right at some point.

[simla]

So, everybody wanted to vote for the rights issue.

And more news too: "promising growth" in US ingredient sales; distribution of existing products into Korea (pop. S Korea approx 50m?), presumably starting soon, not clear; rather complex agreement signed on selling into China, timeline hard to judge; and to launch into Europe "during 2009"; hope to have food approval in US by end of fiscal year, whenever that is; and "continue to pursue commercialisation of the next generation of BLIS probiotics". That would have to count as good news, I think.

With that vote, the ship of Blis finally, but confidently, left port and sailed into the markets. Now people with cash get to decide how much to put in to the issue. Emearg, I'm not sure that there won't be quite a few oversubscribing now. The vote was basically huge, and the news very good for the short term never mind the longer term. It's rather hard to see the shares as anything but a bargain now, from where I'm sitting. Barry, and everyone else at Blis, must be grinning. Well done.

[scamper]

weeeell....
a 28% rise in share price all for the handsome sum of $2000 expenditure...
Thanks for the report simla. I'm still very wary of this share, but enjoy your enthusiasm.
Scamper still holds some in his kennel, his shirt having been well lost years ago.

[simla]

Little words that may be worth noting: The Blis web site now carries a link (31 March) titled "Press Release". It is already on scoop.co.nz (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0903/S00715.htm) and a few other places. Now that could be pretty significant if you assume that the outside world does not support the Blis share because it has never heard of it. I do not recall ever seeing a press release being issued by Blis before.

Also, I've been back looking at the rights issue documentation. Little words there too may be worth noting.

- The branded ingredient strategy is pretty clever if you ask me. I presume they mean by that for the phrase "Blis K12" to be recognised in the sort of way that "Lycra" is, so people will want to buy products containing it. So did people notice in the RI papers, " ... with a subsequent global roll out of the Blis K12 branded ingredient in 2009." (Branded Ingredients Strategy, p43)

- The company is expecting to launch something in Japan in 2009, and is working "to develop other opportunities" there (North Asia, p40). Japan has a population of about 130 million, or nearly half that of the US.

- "It will be late 2010 before the company anticipates significant business [in South East Asia]". (South East Asia, p41) That's only 18 months or so away. The seven countries listed have a combined population of over 500 million.

- In the US section, "...other major manufacturers who are anticipated to launch products in the near future" (US, p42). And the presentation on the Blis website yesterday adds "confirmed an order for ... a new customer in the US".

- "Europe is a significant market for Frutarom". (Frutarom, p38), suggesting progress in Europe could be quite fast once begun. Also, "Frutarom currently has...turnover of...US$400 million," (Frutarom, p37). In the Oct 20 2008 Blis NZX announcement, the Frutarom VP Health USA said "This is a significant opportunity for us to expand our business...". If Blis can sell about NZ$1m into NZ/Aus with no real advertising, then Frutarom may hope that Blis will single handedly be very good news for them, which would inspire quite a bit of effort. Frutarom have 1500 staff and sell into 120 countries (p37).

- "In the US, the company is targeting the mass food, drug and the neutraceutical and dietary supplement sectors". (Frutarom, p37) Thinking small then! Note they have already made good progress with three companies already picking it up (Nature's Plus, Solaray, and "new customer".)

- "...continuing its discussions with several global consumer companies". (Global, p38). Now, Nature's Plus might be seen as global but is not a household name as far as I'm aware. So, does this mean global in the sense of globally recognised, like brand names such as Colgate, Nescafe, etc? Despite all the big developments in Blis already, the papers say "these negotiations represent a major strategic undertaking by the company". (p38)

From years of being a tale of forlorn hope, Blis has suddenly become a very fast moving story of success with quite some complexity. It's easy to miss details that count for something.

[emearg]

Here are a few things that should help Blis shine a little brighter over the next year.

Ireland - retail distribution. Plus the potential to distribute into other European countries.

Natures Plus products - sold in thousands of shops in the USA, United Kingdom and Ireland. Widely available on the web.

Solaray Oral Flora product. Widely available on the web. I'm not sure about shop sales?

Frutarom ingredients business in America. Big international player with a large sales team and huge distribution network. For a big player they have been surprisingly productive in a short period of time so I see significant potential there! Today's(1st Apri 09) presentation(Special Shareholders Meeting Presentation.pdf) announced that "Frutarom has confirmed an order for Blis K12 from a new customer in the US". So I am thinking this will probably be another part finished product similar to the Natures Plus and Solaray products? We shall see.

Frutarom ingredients business into Europe. Scheduled to kick off in 2009.

Rebranded New Zealand products? It is questionable how much more or less they will contribute given the lack of marketing behind them.

'Tablets India' to produce finished products.

Plus a number of other things on the boil, but quite likely will not contribute any revenue in the next 12 months.

I'm completely happy with how Blis is being run by Barry. I look forward to taking up my rights, and more if I can get them. In response to your comment Simla, I doubt there will be huge competition for the extra rights considering the current investment climate. Peoples tolerance for risk isn't high at the moment.

[simla]

Quite right, Emearg. I'm always so busy trying to read the future from little clues that I can forget to enjoy the present. The line up for this year is indeed already looking pretty promising in it's own right. And, logically, you're quite right about how much people will chip in. Yet I just have this nagging feeling that the psychology about Blis has suddenly changed. We'll see.

[emearg]

Blis up 54% today. Somebody is keen to get on the K12 train. Best not to read too much into it though...

[simla]

No, the price will likely go down again next week, as the high price has brought a rash of sell offers. But the offers are at much higher prices than before - ALL the shareholders are presumably up to date on the improved position now and not keen to give them away. But any rise in price is likely to be met in the short term by at least some people wanting to take the chance to just get out anyway for their own reasons. A bit later will be more interesting, when the keen sellers have gone. With the announced confirmed order before 31 March, the end of year results might be interesting to see - in late May when there will be 3 more months trading news as well.

Blis was advertised in the Radius Pharmacy flyer again today. The sales message says "support for mouth and throat health" which seems unlikely to draw in huge crowds. Still, being advertised beats not being advertised, and there was a largish photo. Radius Pharmacies have 35 shops according to the web site, in most major cities.

[caesar]

Hello people, first time poster. I’m a long term holder of BLIS. Fortunately only a small part of my diminishing portfolio is infected with BLIS. I believe the product has a lot of potential and therefore the share price has a lot of potential but I think it is going to take 5 years at current pace and I am a bit frustrated with the very slow progress and can’t really see anything changing. On the positive side the share price can’t surely go much lower and a 30% increase in sales revenue from 07 to 08 is impressive.

However,

The graph on page 15 of the investment statement is nothing short of a joke. Whoever produced this incompetent piece of rubbish should be fired. I am talking about the presentation of this graph. The x-axis title is “FFFFFFFF” what does this mean? A few choice words come to mind. Next the font size of the x-axis and y-axis labels are too big. My final problem is that presenting the y-axis labels “NZD 3,500,000” is at a level of accuracy that I don’t care about. When it comes to Blis I am not thinking in millions yet. So I wonder why the “FFFFFFFF” they decided to insult the shareholders intelligence by putting this piece of “SSSSSSSS” in the presentation.

My problem with the marketing expense at NZ$65,829 is that it doesn’t pay for much. So Blis is hoping their partners will spend more on marketing. But if I were Futurom I would just watch Blis fail and then pick up the patents at bargain prices. Unfortunately it is what a big rational company like Futurom should probably do. Blis has been spending a lot of (our) money trying to find a savior. Is this a good strategy? And is the money they want to raise now being spent on marketing, which I think they badly need, or is going to be more of the same.

Effective marketing doesn’t have to cost a lot of money. There are 2592 shareholders who have an interest in the company. All apart from 99 sorry people own more than $30 in shares. $30 is the price of a t-shirt with a big Blis logo. Most share holders (excluding those owning 200,000 shares or more who probably wear suits) would spend $30 on a t-shirt and wear it to support the company. If they made a t-shirt available with the Blis logo I would buy it and wear it. It would cost them nothing and least I might do something to save the now little money I have left in this practically worthless company. The t-shirt would stay in my shelf for many years to come as a reminder of the happy days of hope in Blis technologies. I want mine black by the way and I will wear it at the CHCH marathon next month.

The other thing is that I spend an hour a day drinking chlorine at the QEII pool killing all the good bugs in my mouth, throat and stomach. I suspect that a Blis product might actually help me avoid colds and complications. So why the “ffffff” doesn’t Blis spend $10,000 sponsoring Moss Burmester and put a big photo of him and a BLIS product at the QEII pool? And what product should I buy? I have no idea and neither did the woman I spoke to at Harvey’s today. If I were a smoker which product is best for me? I have read the presentation and I still don’t know the answers. Papers in scientific journals don’t really help me make that choice. At the moment I’m eating raw broccoli – not nice people.

My other problem is why isn’t there an advert sitting at the Christchurch Airport with “BLIS travel guard” on it? Maybe there is. The problem is that I have been a shareholder for about 2 years and I haven’t seen one single bit of advertising. The first I had heard of “Blis travel guard” was in this investment presentation. Where is the marketing?

92.6% of shareholders own less than 100,000 shares. 100,000 shares at 1 for 45 will get you 2222 of these preference shares and will cost $2222. What would you as a rational investor rather do – invest in Telecom ordinary shares which have a reasonably reliable dividend yield of about 11% and is likely to be around in some form in 3 years time – or put at risk $2000 in Blis preference shares yielding about the same. A rational investor will choose Telecom and avoid Blis – that is the problem.

They raised $2.2m last year. $500,000 went on the salaries of the management team on page 19/20 of the report. I think these guys could do without the money for a while. Two of them need an urgent meeting with Jenny Craigs. The next thing is I think my hairdresser in Belfast will give the rest slightly better hairstyles than they have at the moment for $10. Two of them have bowl cuts. Flip these guys are not going to get women with bowl cuts. What do they need the money for? Do they want to drive around in a porshe? This shareholder has Nissan Bluebird 1991 ARX diesel.

Blis has PPE of $350,000. Isn’t this slightly funny for an NZX listed company? The NZX would list anyone! This is the cost of a flipping truck.

The problem is that big investors can sit on the sidelines watch the company fail and pick up the pieces at fire sale prices. They have more money than me and they are not going to invest so why should I? Don’t give me this bit about being a dutiful investor.

Sack the board and appoint me people, I’m the new straight talk express. I would get this company humming without Futurom. Give me the power. Hail the new Caesar.

[caesar]

Me again.

Just wanted to add my opinion of something else that bothers me.

The CEO is from the New Zealand Dairy Board. I've never heard of the Tatua Co-Op Diary Company and they may be brillient so I should cut some slack. But the New Zealand Dairy Board was never a beacon of good good quality management. What was the name of the court case: NZ Diary Board v NZ Co-op Dairy Co Ltd [1999]? Basically the 3 top executives of a NZ Diary Board subsidiary (a packaging company) were corrupt. I think one of them was building a house or something on company money. Others were billing the company for services rendered. They gave the auditors - audit NZ a whole lot of booze and they ignored they whole shebang. The management in the Parent company had absolutely no idea what was going on in the subsidairy and I think were held responsible along with the auditors...... in the court case. What I am saying is the NZDB as far as I am concerned has a reputation that stinks. Putting NZDB on your CV doesn't inspire me with a lot of confidence.

What do I find here? The CEO is from the NZDB. But, well, well, so is the Production and Logistics Manager. That is jobs for the boys. It stinks. I don't have a lot of confidence in these guys. I will be more happy to dispense with my money when they get rid of one of them or both.

The CEO has experience in international marketing. Whoopdedo, a $65,000 marketing budget is practically useless. This guy is not the kind of person that will rally the shareholders and in this economic climate that is what a CEO must do. Would you follow him into battle. No. A few less PHD's a few more down to earth people on the board would be good start if they want to get money out of me.

[caesar]

Going from a senior position in a dairy company to a senior position at Blis technologies is career downscaling isn't it? Those dairy guys are nose in the air arrogant but they do get paid well and they do have good job security.

This CEO of Blis could be different but why did he go to Blis technologies? Blis is a tiny little needle in a big haystack! I don't know how long he has been around but when I purchased the share price was about 10 cents. Now it is 3 cents. Where is the pressure being put on this individual. Should I blame him for my loss of wealth?

Hopefully thats all. Someone stop me.

[Chippie]

Hi Caesar
It looks like you are making up for lost time with your 3 posts :)

I personally agree with the strategy not to spend money on marketing in NZ. This is not where the future of this company will be.

I also think that Barry Richardson has taken BLT ahead light years in a relatively short period of time.

So the only way to vote is with your cash. After a lot of thinking I plan to take up my rights. I know people who work for Telecom and I am not so sure that they would put their money into TEL rather than BLT.

cheers

[simla]

NZDB/Fonterra is the sixth biggest dairy company in the world according to Wikipedia, which makes them very successful, way bigger than Telecom for example, and a good training ground for good staff, who you would expect to pay for. The title on the graph is just a typo, as can be seen from the Notice of Special Meeting version of it. Marketing money has been withheld from NZ, but pretty obviously used to negotiate access to much larger markets instead. The share price is going down because it has been losing money for years, which we hope is about to change due to much recent progress. The cornerstone shareholder, one of the points of the rights issue, is to prevent the company being sold out cheaply, the other objective being to get enough money to prevent the need to even think of selling out. Currently the lowest sell offer is 5.7 cents, and nobody is offering to sell their rights at all, so not a lot of people seem worried.

[oldowl]

Why is there no depth for BLTRC on Direct Broking?
OO

[simla]

The NZX site reports there is no depth - ie no bids, and no offers.

[oldowl]

The NZX site reports there is no depth - ie no bids, and no offers.

There is this message: Depth is temporarily unavailable
OO

[caesar]

oldowl, if you are trying to say that if I were to sell my 200,000 shares today I wouldn't get anyone interested at 2 cents I am shocked and dismayed. Yes, unfortionately there is what is called a very large liquidity premium associated with this stock. Liquidity risk is one of the things you are supposed to consider when you invest. But darn it, while I did consider it, I thought I could overcome. When you actually factor the liquidity premium into the current share price the company and my shares are worth very, very little.

My origional strategy was to buy my 200,000 shares over a period of about 3 months so as not to create this massive share price disturbance. I picked my last lot up at 4 cents. Did you see the person who bought at 7.7cents a few days ago. Try selling them now brother. I would be happy to sell this person my shares at 7.7cents.

This entire exprience feels a lot like Strathmore. Remember them? My net worth was about $600 back in 2001 and someone told me that Strathmore was the quick and easy way to prosperity. (This was after the tech crash - I was a little foolish). I invested my $600 at 2 cps and they were soon worth 0.2cps. The Strathmore chart was to be seen to be believed - it wasn't a straight line descent into the abyss it was this concave shape into the abys. There was no liquidity. I should have learned from my mistake. Strathmore had a crap product, but Blis has a good one. That is the difference between the two cases. I am a big believer in the product but I think I am alone. If there were others then they would be investors like me. They would buy my shares.

Simla, not knocking the management. The CEO looks like a nice guy. I am not sure who to target my wrath at. Can you be confident that next year they are not going to come back to us and ask for more money? If the board or senior management actually had a long term strategy then why did they not forsee the need for cash last year when they came to the shareholders asking for money. This is three years in a row. '

The shareholders can either sit back and hope and believe or we can demand concrete details on how they are going to market what they have now. Why do we need the product in toothpaste. Sure this would be amazing. I would buy it, if it were cheap and sold by Pams, or budget. But I believe they have a good product now so why don't they market it properly using some of my ideas for example, ideas that do not cost a lot of money.

New Zealanders are health concious people. Isn't this a good place to try out a well thought out marketing strategy to see what works and what doesn't before hitting the US and some of these other massive markets.

Another concern of mine is why doesn't this investment document address the current economic climate and the effect this is going to have on business. The chairman writes:

These risks are exacerbated by the global financial crisis sweeping world markets. Shareholders must consider these risks in reaching a decision as to whether to take up their entitlement for Preference Shares" (Page 8).

It is the boards duty to consider these risks. Have these risks been identified and if so where are they listed in the document? Or are they just great undefinable "risks".

When it appears that the last strategic review of the Company's operations was conducted in 2006 (see page 7) it concerns me that the Board may not actually have done a more recent strategic review when the economic conditions are much, much, much different than what they were in 2006. If they havn't then they are not really doing what they are supposed to be doing. Tell me where in this document is it written that such a strategic review has taken place?

The fact is they have to learn to run this business on the smell of money not the taste of money. This situation isn't going to change for quite a few years. Is it part of their strategy to come back next year with another capital raising?

"The Board has CAREFULLY considered the means by which this capital should be raised and believes that in the current economic environment that the Rights Issue presents the only viable means of raising the capital required by the Company."

I capitalise the words because I don't think CAREFUL consideration is even necessary. The options are fairly limited. The chances of the banks lending them money is nill. It was probably the same even before the current "economic environment".

What they should be CAREFULLY considering is whether they actually need the money to begin with and whether they are basing there entire business model on a pre-2008 strategy.

[caesar]

Oldowl you raise an interesting point about liquidity. Correct me if I am wrong but these preference shares will convert to ordinary shares at the end of three years at whatever value. But if everyone who has purchased these preference shares tries to sell them, as ordinary shares, on the same day at the end of the three years:
1. They will not be able to sell them at the prevailing price at that time unless liquidity improves
2. They will likely pay quite a large premium if liquidity does not improve.

Simla, defender of Blis, where in the documentation is addressed this aspect of liquidity? Do you really think you will be able to sell your converted ordinary shares and get your money back and still get the 10% semi-annual return? Who is going to buy them in 3 years time?

[simla]

Caesar, you seem pretty keen that Blis should succeed, like the rest of us. But scattered throughout this forum, including in my posts, are endless references to things turning out badly as one obvious possibility. It is a risk stock. Until/if Blis succeeds, it will have not succeeded, and liquidity will be low. Liquidity is probably very low at present anyway as shareholders save their cash for the rights issue.

Blis is already selling into a market with a few hundred million more potential customers than only a year ago, so the potential is there for fairly fast progress. But nothing can force that, especially with the world going to pieces financially - it may be quick, it may be slow, or it may never happen. Longtime shareholders know that the news really only comes in the two half year reports, delivered at the end of May and end of November, unless something quite big happens in the meantime. If you want to sell out, possibly there may (or may not!) be more buyer interest in a month or two, as the rights payments will be over and the half year report may contain some good news. There seem always to be bid offers available on Blis anyway, it just being a question of price (it is only the rights not selling presently). If you don't want to sell, then join the rest of us, sit around and see what happens, as we have no control over the situation. Blis isn't following a perfect strategy, nobody ever does, but it is one that seems to make a fair amount of sense and so far seems to be making good progress and there's really no chance of them changing it much in the mean time anyway.

Incidentally, I am not a defender of Blis. I simply report what I see so others may disagree and thus we may all come to some sort of better understanding of things. It just happens that I do not personally see a lot going wrong here, and I see quite a bit going right.

[Oman]

We have now a pretty good idea of the BLT business situation from the Pref share issue prospectus.

Interesting BLT is researching 'wet' products such as toothpaste ...but plenty of warnings about insolvency risk too.

Looks okay to me overall ...good enough to accept the offer and take the high level of risk, but I'm cautiously optimistic these days unlike two years ago when the BLT future looked so bright! Commercial reality blunts enthusiasm.

[emearg]

Frutarom's press release page is here:
http://www.npicenter.com/listings/CompPress.aspx?companyId=23

Three out of the ten press releases from the date of the original annoucement are about BLIS K12. For a company the size of Frutarom, BLIS K12 getting so much attention strikes me as significant.

These press releases are also published on a number of other websites.

It appears that Frutarom really are making an effort to sell their new product, and based on the update given at the Shareholders meeting they are continuing to make progress.

I would like to think getting into bed with Frutarom will prove to be the best thing Blis has done so far. Only time will tell. In five years time our BLT shares will either be worth many, many times what they are today, or nothing...

[simla]

Yes, long term outlook looking good, but I am pretty hopeful of results for the next year or two regardless. Barry has basically built a multinational from scratch over the last couple of years, which is pretty extraordinary. The large scale of the rights issue seems to have come from that urgent push to growth.

Blis is in the LifePharmacy flyer now too, for Throat Guard Boost, right next to Coldrex. The sales message is "ideal at times of high need for families, kids at school, and people in the workplace when others are experiencing sudden poor throat health, particularly at the start of the winter season." Effective photo too. Now, that seems likely to draw some sales. LifePharmacy seem to have 25 or so shops in most big cities. So, NZ marketing is picking up finally.

[emearg]

Blis is in the LifePharmacy flyer now too, for Throat Guard Boost, right next to Coldrex. The sales message is "ideal at times of high need for families, kids at school, and people in the workplace when others are experiencing sudden poor throat health, particularly at the start of the winter season." Effective photo too. Now, that seems likely to draw some sales. LifePharmacy seem to have 25 or so shops in most big cities. So, NZ marketing is picking up finally.

I saw that as well. I'm pretty sure it came in the Dom Post in Welly this morning. LifePharmacy also has an online presence.

Personally I won't be buying any on their website. PharmarcyDirect ( https://www.pharmacydirect.co.nz ) is far cheaper!! BioRestore $15.95 vs $26.65. ThroatGuard $14.99 vs $17.99(on special).

Still, the more outfits selling it the better it is for Blis. Selling is the key word here, not just stocking...

[simla]

You know, despite the financials looking so good for Blis now, my driving force still remains that I so much admire the product itself, I really want it to succeed in the world. Blis are pushing "superior non-prescription oral and throat product available in pharmacy" (recent paperwork) and they're doing it because they have proof. What a fantastic gift to the world. I'm glad I have shares in this company, but I'm also glad I have use of the product.

In a world drowning in future doom, Blis (and hopefully other probiotics) represent plain unadulterated good news. People will be able to protect their good health at cheap cost. It won't solve the world, but surely it will save many many individual people from awful health problems they couldn't otherwise afford to cope with. And probably they will never realise the trouble they got saved from.

[caesar]

The fact you people are celebrating when you find a BLIS advertisement is unbelievable. No one when talking about a major company says something to the effect of 'I have discovered an add in such an such a magazine from company XYZ'. Whoopdedoo. An advert shouldn't be a reason to invest. The lack of advertising should be a reason not to invest. Did they spend the $65,000 marketing budget on that add?

Darn it. I never saw it! I wish I had though. Maybe someone could take a photo of it and post it on this website. That would double the amount of coverage the BLIS product actually gets.

Reviewing the front page of the 2008 Annual Report: "Keep watch in stores for our slick new range of packaging". This is the most corny and stupid thing to put on the inside page of an annual report. They seem put more emphasis on marketing to shareholders than to the public. Is the packaging more important than the product?

Way back on page 7 of this forum - back in 2007! Investors such as Impatient were putting pressure on management and board. Not many agreed. 2 years later and we are in an even worse position. Surely the management and board have to take some responsibility for the absolute destruction of shareholder value over the past 2 years.

I dont know if you people have ever shopped at Health 2000 but what do I find is a big advert for a product called "BowelBiotics+" with a beautiful looking slim blond woman doing yoga. Ok, her intestines are a little discusting - they didn't need to show us them. Now $24.90. Great advert, easy to understand, and from the looks of it a competitor.

[emearg]

The fact you people are celebrating when you find a BLIS advertisement is unbelievable. No one when talking about a major company says something to the effect of 'I have discovered an add in such an such a magazine from company XYZ'. Whoopdedoo. An advert shouldn't be a reason to invest. The lack of advertising should be a reason not to invest. Did they spend the $65,000 marketing budget on that add?

I don't recall celebrating? I just said the more people selling the products the better.

NZ retail sales isn't the future of this company, but every sale(should) helps.

Pharmabroker cover NZ retail product marketing costs.


Way back on page 7 of this forum - back in 2007! Investors such as Impatient were putting pressure on management and board. Not many agreed. 2 years later and we are in an even worse position. Surely the management and board have to take some responsibility for the absolute destruction of shareholder value over the past 2 years.

Worse position? Really?? Feel free to expand on that comment.

Management and the board are 100% responsible for everything done.

I think the last two years have been the best ever. They are miles ahead of where they were back in early 2007. They have achieved much of what was stated in those rights documents. FYI I am a fairly new shareholder but I have been following the company since 2003. Only recently have I seen what I have been looking for, and bought in.

Don't forget these things take much time and resource, so I'm not expecting them to grow their revenue from not much to millions in only a few months or years. Personally, I would like to see next years revenue over the 2 million mark. If they are making the progress I think they are that should be achievable. If they don't achieve that goal, I will be rethinking my holding...

Cheers

[emearg]

I got a letter today reminding me about the rights offer...

Have any of you sent in your cheque/paperwork yet?

If you have, have you taken up your full quota? Have you oversubscribed?

Have any of you decided not to take up your rights?

[simla]

Sent off two weeks ago already. I had a good stab at it, but didn't go all out given the current state of the world. Fairly heavy selling this week suggests some just plain need cash currently - while others still have cash ready to buy with - so anybody's guess what the outcome will be.

[Oman]

Interesting BLT sent out a letter. They may think the RI may be poorly subscribed ...which given yesterday's SP may be right.

The RI has locked the SP at 4cps max until this phase is passed ...but the queue of sellers ...and some sizable pref rights sellers too, indicates a group of holders will not take up their rights.

For myself, as an realistic optimist, I took my full 12,000 rights and topped up with another 5,000.

I think the benefits outweigh the risk at 4cps ...but I also note that if BLT pays a dividend in two years then the ordinaries may be a better position to be in. The prefs are okay for the stormy days we are in as there is a possible ROI and they're a fraction safer than ordinary shares ...and they're tradable if the price rises.

This RI looks another important milestone for BLT. I hope the underwriter sticks around a while longer ...but I voted for Barry with my cheque!

[Chippie]

It is interesting times when there is so much capital raising going on at the moment in the market.

Today I am sitting down to work out how many pref shares I can afford to buy (it will be more than my entitlement).

I expect the underwriters will pick up a lot though as it is a high risk investment.

[emearg]

I note the letter says the directors will be taking up their entitlement. It is good to know it isn't just the underwriters that have faith in the future of Blis.

Anywho, I have mailed my document/cheque and I have taken up my full entitlement and have asked for some more. I suspect I will get them given everything going on right now. I hope so anyways...

[Oman]

I guess everyone noticed the top of p34 of the Rights Document where it mentions possibly 6 new K12 products in the USA market in the 2009 financial year ...and a hint of K12 as a food additive being one of them. I assume that's in addition to those already there.

[Chippie]

I am suprised that no one has brought up the potenital for "Travel Guard" with the swine flu scare. Travel Guard was designed to help fight against catching bugs on planes.

So the time is right to market this product.

[emearg]

I am suprised that no one has brought up the potenital for "Travel Guard" with the swine flu scare. Travel Guard was designed to help fight against catching bugs on planes.

So the time is right to market this product.

I just sent Barry an email. Here it the guts of it:

Is Swine Flu an opportunity to take advantage of peoples concerns about air travel and market your Travel Guard product more actively? A few bill boards around airports, or a widely circulated email chain could be rather effective.

If people are willing to wear dust masks thinking that will keep them safe I would think they will leap on the chance to use Travel Guard.

[simla]

Can't agree with that. You're assuming a good outcome after taking Blis, but this is a potentially fatal disease. Very bad publicity seems the more likely outcome. Stick to the knitting seems a far more sensible strategy. Blis has concentrated on provable results, and now is not the time to throw caution to the wind with an unknown outcome when a winning strategy is already currently in hand.

[emearg]

Can't agree with that. You're assuming a good outcome after taking Blis, but this is a potentially fatal disease. Very bad publicity seems the more likely outcome. Stick to the knitting seems a far more sensible strategy. Blis has concentrated on provable results, and now is not the time to throw caution to the wind with an unknown outcome when a winning strategy is already currently in hand.

I'm not assuming any particular outcome after taking Blis. It was more about jumping on the bandwagon. And considering the other products selling like hot cakes, efficacy isn't that important...

Anywho, I'm not expecting Barry to run with it, but I will be very interested to see his response.

Lets face it, even if it was a good idea Blis aren't going to have enough of the product stock piled to support any mad rush.

Having said that, I don't know why Blis doesn't have bill boards up at airports advertising the product? For the record, this wasn't my idea, somebody else mentioned it earlier in the year. But it does strike me as incredibly obvious TARGETED marketing for air travellers!??!!!

[simla]

Emearg, Blis don't need to sell mere product when the shares are selling so well instead! Seems like nearly 1.5 million shares somebody(s) has put on the market in the last week or so. Interesting that there has been equally strong buying pressure, so I'm not sure why the price is going down instead of up. It must be pretty disappointing selling out at this stage of the game after everything in the rights documentation, but cash is cash.

[Oman]

Emearg, I'm always amazed that there's not a huge billboard at Auckland Intenational and stacks of Travel Guard on the counter in the 'passeners only' area. It's so obvious ...and so lacking.

The cost wouldn't be high for such target marketing and the return from BLIS exposure would be extremely high.

[simla]

Let's first wait and see if this really is a pandemic or not. Happily it is looking like not presently, but let's wait and see. If all is well, then AFTER could be a good time to push Travel Guard, as everyone will be health conscious then. It would be amazing if Blis were not thinking about this pretty carefully regardless: what to do if this flu does not take off, what to do if it does take off. However, I've got to admit we're taking Blis in this house right now.

[Chippie]

From Pharmacy direct (while looking to top up on travel guard)
https://www.pharmacydirect.co.nz/pages.php?pageid=93


Keep yourself healthy
Boost your immune system by eating sensibly, limiting alcohol and caffeine and consider taking an immune boosting formula such as Oliviral. Some people believe products that combat secondary infection such as Buccaline Berna, Blis K12 and other natural health products which will help speed recovery by reducing the effects of secondary infections. Secondary infections occur because your body and immune system are so tired from fighting the virus.

[simla]

Will be interesting to see the rights results. There is a little rule in the issue: minimum entitlement 500. At 1 preference share for 45 ordinary shares, that is the equivalent of 22,500 shares. But, according to the 2008 report, about 1500 shareholders had less than 22,500 shares, probably holding only about 5-10% of the company. But they just might put in the $500 each (or more) as a chance to catch up, which could raise $750,000 from that source alone.

If it works out that way, it would not only be a clever source of cash for the company, but also a small reward for smaller shareholders (who have probably mostly loyally been with Blis for a long time) bringing their small holdings back to a more worthwhile level. Barry must have had his work cut out arranging this rights issue, but still he seems to have found time to slip in ways for shareholders to be rewarded at the same time, which is pretty generous of him.

[emearg]

It will be very interesting to see what the take up was. I am hoping the underwriters get a decent chunk(so they are very motivated to help achieve success) but not such a big chunk they end up controlling it completely!!

Had I known that the Fletcher Building rights issue would be oversubscribed and therefore scaled back I would have oversubscribed for even more Blis than I did. The Fletcher offer was too attractively priced not to participate fully IMHO. Hindsight is a beautiful thing!

I doubt my Blis subscription will be scaled back...

[simla]

And with that, the current future of Blis is pretty well guaranteed presumably. (The anouncement was on nzx/bltpa, not nzx/blt for some reason, by the way). Every person who put money in just made a very, very wise move in my opinion. And everyone who didn't will sit around in a year or two and say, "I really should have put some money into that, shouldn't I?".

By my calculations, the underwriters effectively have about 20% now on conversion (7 million existing + (1.56m X 25 = 39m) = 46m out of (138m + (3m x 25) = 213m) = 21% - assuming a conversion at 25 per $1). Is that what other's make it? They go up to about 30% if they exercise the option this year - and why wouldn't they? But the conversion and the votes don't come for 3 years. Presumably Blis cannot now be taken over without Edinburgh's consent. Enough shareholder's would vote against now anyway, but also the Investment Statement p12 says "In the event that the company receives a takeover offer [holders of preference shares have the right to convert into ordinary shares]." I can't help wondering if that large ownership stake will become an issue some time in the company's future when people's priorities change over time, but we're all happy enough now presumably.

So, now wait for results at the end of the month. That will be 3 months' more news since the rights documentation. It's not a long time for developments, but there's still a chance of something interesting.

[simla]

Those of you who did not read today's Ongoing Disclosure Notice will probably enjoy the read. There seems to be some confidence in the company evident.

[Steve]

BLT must have money to burn right now - I got a letter ex Link Market Services in the mail requesting my bank account details to deposit my BLTPA income when my bank account is already loaded against my CSN number...

I wonder how much Link get paid for generating such a mailout?

[Scuffer]

Don't want them burning my money

[simla]

Okay, how to respond to that end of year result is complex.

Financially, it is brilliant. Revenue expanded by 30% in the middle of a massive world downturn, and despite major setbacks in a couple of Blis' markets. And prospects are great - with so many revenue streams coming on line, the headline this time next year seems extremely likely to be a very happy one.

Psychologically, however, it must be admitted that that was disappointing. The company came sooooooo.. close to making the announcement of positive cashflow that we have waited all these years to hear. That that moment will be delayed till some time this next financial year is really of little consequence, except that the Blis bus timetable only has buses leaving every six months, and basically we just missed the last one by just a few minutes!!

On the bad side, the wheels seem to have fallen off in Australia. Blis did not reveal much detail on that, but neither did they sound totally despondant about the future there, so we'll just have to wait and see there. In Ireland on the other hand, Blis went out of their way to tell us not to expect much there for some time. The Blis website STILL says "will be sold shortly" in Ireland after all this time, so that market is obviously not a winner for some time, although this report says "the Whelehan Group is in the process of launching BLIS products in Ireland" so things must be progressing.

Also, while revenue went up, product sales did not - but then sales in Australia basically evaporated, so that was not too bad in total.

On the good side, most obviously the American sales have been great, $325k from a cold start in just a few months. And hopefully several more products to come there ("several projects in progress with its partners, some of which are near to market"). Manufacturing capacity in US is nearly available, suggesting they anticipate the need. And they are now applying for food approval in the US.

NZ revenue dipped 28% on last year but "this is now being reversed" as a result of marketing. They got quite enthusiastic about NZ. "new advertising and promotional activities". "Significant improvements in retail sales across all products have been observed". "rapidly growing Throat Guard Daily [market]". "Rapid-Eze Gargle and Fresh Breath Kit have also shown excellent growth". Confirmation that the shareholder sales offer was a trial of an on-line sales website.

The Korean market will open in 6 to 9 months time maybe. Pity about the current atmosphere there! However, surely that cannot persist.

Europe seems ready to roll, except that the red tape seems an obstacle of unmeasurable extent. They did not rule out sales there this financial year, but neither did they suggest they would.

Japan may be coming on stream later this year, but again no commitment particularly.

Nestle still a slow burner, but Blis is talking more openly about it now, suggesting confidence is good.

Interesting to note that the underwriters ended up with only about $1 million in preference shares after it had all been finalised, which is a smaller percentage than appeared a few weeks ago.

The overall tone of the report was confident, particularly in conjunction with the "ongoing disclosure notice" of May 15. Those with a two year time line can continue to party wildly on this report. Those with a 6 month horizon will, however, be nashing their teeth a little. There is no chance of the market taking any notice of Blis while it continues to run negative cashflow. We might hope things will be better in 6 months, but Blis is now a seasonal product (throad guard instead of bad breath) and NZ is the only market in winter during the next six months. Still, it wouldn't take much growth in the US to turn out a pretty hearty result in 6 months time anyway.

I think we should strongly congratulate the Blis team for navigating a massive storm while also seemingly holding a true course.

[STRAT]

Don't want them burning my moneyThey have been doing that for 2 years Scuffer

[Steve]

Confirmation that the shareholder sales offer was a trial of an on-line sales website.

Have I missed this shareholder sales offer?! :eek:

[simla]

Direct mailout to shareholders 2 or 3 months ago, inviting us to buy Blis Restore via a non-public website address for about $9 a bottle. Pretty professional result when I tried it.

Nice to get a response, Steve. This group has gone very quiet lately.

[emearg]

Some thoughts on your post Simla...


Financially, it is brilliant. Revenue expanded by 30% in the middle of a massive world downturn, and despite major setbacks in a couple of Blis' markets. And prospects are great - with so many revenue streams coming on line, the headline this time next year seems extremely likely to be a very happy one.

Brilliant? Really? Sales decreased. Frankly if they can't see product they don't have much of a future. Licencing and grants don't really cut it.

Having said that, as noted in a previous post I am willing to give them another year before I make the decision to jump ship if they don't achieve MY sales target.


On the good side, most obviously the American sales have been great, $325k from a cold start in just a few months.
Cold start? What about all the Therabreath sales in previous years?

It would have been good if they had added more detail to allow a valid comparision to be made.


The overall tone of the report was confident, particularly in conjunction with the "ongoing disclosure notice" of May 15.

Yeah, I have seen confident reports right up to the day the receivers come in. VTL was a great one for that. Something about releasing the hidden value as I recall. What a croc that was. Positive spin is easy to come up with. Results aren't so easy. That said, having been searching for and reading as many of the published articles on K12 that I can find(eight so far) I am more convinced than ever BLIS has a very special probiotic. All they need to do is sell it in the required quantities. Hopefully Frutatrom will assist in that area.

I am thinking the NZ sales in the first half should be considerably up on last years first half. There has been a lot more advertising recently, for all the different pharmacy chains. Last weekend when I visited a relative who works for the pharmarcy association I browsed through their monthly magazine. Classy publication which is the same size as most local community newspapers. BLIS had a whole page advertising their product range. Smart move. Nothing like targeted advertising.

Today I visited the local pharmacy that has Throat Guard Daily for $15. I bought three packs. That should keep me healthy over the winter if the last three or four years worth of experience of using the Throat Guard product(now called Boost) is anything to go by...

[simla]

Nice to hear from you again, Emearg. I see your point, but actually I think it was pretty good despite that. How different was it from what you thought achievable in that period, in reality?

Firstly, Blis turned out a good result despite some major problems - that is, it showed resilience. Now, that is a serious achievement made possible by having revenue coming from several sources. Two years ago Blis could not have withstood that. You could argue that there are some odd revenue sources in there, but the plain fact is the company went out and got those revenue sources. So, resilience.

Secondly, if you look carefully, they do seem to have managed some positive cash flow second half. The half year result in September showed cash flow loss from operations of $272,000, but the full year report shows it be be only $155,000, so there was seemingly a cash surplus from operations of $100,000 second half (but not after capitalising patent and research costs yet, of course). Too, the first half loss was $411,000 (after capitalisation), where the full year was $488,000 or only $77,000 loss second half. So the company is seemingly of the opinion that it very nearly ran an operating surplus in the second half despite all the setbacks. That is, the second half was close to some sort of profit, despite the outlook of six months ago not really including any strong short term revenue sources. So, unexpected revenue strength for the period, positive cash flow knocking.

Thirdly, Blis would have made an actual profit second half with only a little tail wind. Ireland or Australia could easily each have contributed a few hundred thousand more, but didn't. The US could easily have done the same. And there is obviously growth in NZ that might have happened earlier but didn't either. So, luck didn't help much this time.

Fourthly, basically the ongoing message with Blis is not that things are going wrong (although Australia did this year for once) but that they are taking longer than hoped. So, still firmly on track, just a bit behind.

Fifthly, more progress than expected, even since just 3 months ago. Things in NZ have obviously gained a new momentum. In Australia, "BLIS is now actively working with Frutarom to develop new commercial opportunities" - note "actively", which is new, and the continued reference to yoghurt. In the US, "several projects ... near to market" AND "also expects to launch several ingredient products into the US market this year". In Japan (pop 130 m), things progressing (not specified much, but worthy of a separate subheading now, sounding close) AND "other projects in Japan". And Korea on track still. So, good revenue streams likely to come on stream in the coming months.

So:
- resilience
- unexpected revenue strength for the period, positive cash flow knocking
- luck didn't help much this time
- still firmly on track, just a bit behind
- good revenue streams likely to come on stream in the coming months

You might look at it like this: you have a small lawn to mow, and a dozen guys with lawnmowers standing next to it. None of them have managed to get their lawnmowers started yet though, so the lawn still isn't mown. Do we give up, or feel pretty confident with how it's going? The lawn is Blis' standing expenses (about $1 million or so) and the lawnmowers are the various revenue streams Blis is stacking up.

The very best we might have hoped from this period's result is that revenue was a few hundred thousand better than this. It was never going to be a roaring profit, and it turned out to be a small loss (seemingly $77,000 second half, operations), which is still pretty firmly on track, isn't it? Slower, but not much. We were not expecting huge revenue in that period's result, just hoping cashflow would tick past zero this time round. It almost did. And all in the middle of a massive downturn.

So, brilliant? Depends on your point of view, but an almost-maiden-profit in the middle of the biggest downturn for a century with a 30% rise in revenue, and yet more markets opening ... not bad, surely?

(By the way, (1) we are not told what Therabreath sales are. But 2008 reported international sales as $454,000, and 2009 says Australia was $354,000 last year. (2) If revenue was up 31%, it will be interesting to see what expenses are listed at when published. (3) Confident reports - Barry never ever uses superlatives, so remember to adjust for that! (4) Sales only collapsed with one single distributor, not across the board, and only fell in NZ because of no advertising as demonstrated by recent sales, and rose well elsewhere. )

[THEONE]

I have been a Blis shareholder for a few years now and
have lost alot of money as a lot of us have.
I agree Simla, things are starting to look good now but as you
said will take a few years

I am very curious about the product pipeline, we dont
seem to hear much about it.

Would be great if they launched the dental caries product this
year, i wonder how far developed it is. I remember reading 5 years
ago they were going to launch it soon.

They also have the probiotic deodorant.

I wonder what is happening with the patent for the skin probiotic and
the trouble they were having with the student saying he had the rights
to it.

Blis also has alot of tax losses, which are easy to overlook when valuing
a company.

Looks like the person involved with the chinese partnership has
1,200,000 shares (NZPR Group Ltfd) interesting.

One would hope that the chinese partner has significant resources
to market in China.

Any predictions for the next year result?

[simla]

I'm more optimistic than that, TheOne. Yes, the big sales will take 2 or 4 years yet, but if Blis doesn't turn out a pretty tidy profit this coming year, then it will be time to start getting nervous. If they don't at least double sales over the coming year, I would be surprised - after all, the possible outlets are starting to stack up. Admittedly, the world seems likely to do yet another crash-and-burn act during that time. Time will tell.

[simla]

Don't forget that a share price of 4 cents, with 138 million shares, and a PE of 15, reflects a profit of $368,000 (by my maths anyway!). A profit of $750,000 would justify 8 cents, and $1.1 million would justify 12 cents, and so on. Yes, we hope Blis is going to turn out some pretty decent profits later, but actually the profits do not have to be very big to make pretty noticeable differences soon anyway. This is why I have been saying for a while now that 4 cents is a ridiculous price. We don't need Blis to make very much progress at all now for it still to count as pretty good news.

[Cannibal]

I am new at this - be gentle please!

So - 4 cents is a ridiculously low price and the have gone down to 3.6 cents this morning. I am confused. From memory their price was 75 cents + a few weeks ago and there has been no bad news since! What am I missing here please?

[neopoleII]

many years ago it was at 75 cents .......... too bad i bought mountains at the 90 cent level.............

[simla]

Not sure if you're having me on! The share price spiked at 7.5 cents a few weeks ago in what appeared to be a single trade. Otherwise it has been trading around 4-5 cents for many months. It wanders up and down all the time though. There is a chart on the NZX page.

The price of Blis is pretty hard to explain rationally,and we've debated it before. Is it wallowing because everybody who wants Blis has already bought (lack of buying) or because people don't believe it (selling pressure)? As turnover is steady but low generally, I'm inclined to the lack of buyers idea. Certainly the company itself is hardly doing anything to attract interest, with all announcements limited to the NZX BLT page. However, with the distribution plan starting to roll out with momentum now, the next year or two will presumably settle the question pretty conclusively - either it will generate sales that will make the current price absurd, or it will fail to generate sales and the current price will prove valid.

The paradox of Blis is that it remains a risky investment until the dollars actually start rolling in, because until then there is no proof Blis is going to fly - yet, when they do start rolling in, the right time to buy them was now, when the writing was on the wall. The absurdity is that Blis just raised $3 million, showing considerable belief in the company ... yet the share price just sits there.

[Cannibal]

Thanks Simla. Concise and informative.

I meant 7.7 cents. Honest!

As a late comer to this, it is hard to believe that they were once 90 cents. That's gotta hurt!

[simla]

Seems the financial accounts have been on the Blis web site for a few days. You just have to poke about to find them.

[simla]

After some thought, the reason I think this result was brilliant was this: The company, and many shareholders, have believed in this product for some time. But what this result proves is that major brand names now believe in it too - they have put money up front to show their belief, and put it into the market, and we are also told that several other brand names are even now doing the same thing. So now we know that it is the judgment of quite a few experienced companies that this product is a winner.

So, the manufacturer believes in it. Now major marketers believe in it. The ring of confidence is moving outwards. The Blis product has been exposed to a whole new layer of the real world and proved a winner. There was reason to hope this was the case 6 months ago, but now we have real evidence of it.

The one last thing we still do not know, of course, but surely must find out this coming year, is whether the public are going to agree.

[emearg]

Blis have released a 'Product Usage and Influenza Statement'.

http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Annoucements/Product%20Usage%20and%20Influenza%20Statement.pdf

I'm enjoying my first dose of Throatguard for this season. Despite feeling a bit of a cold coming on mid last week, I took two tablets for a couple of days when I felt something was brewing, and that has knocked it on the head. I guess I started the dose early enough? And everyone around me at work is sick, and coughing and sneezing and the rest. Fingers crossed for another cold free winter....

I must say, the more I read and the more I use their products the more of a beliver I become. It is a pity that belief in their products doesn't necessarily translate into BLT being a good investment.

[Bobcat.]

I sold out of this baby a couple of years ago at 7.5c, and that was before they had much market penetration. I would say that they are in a stronger position today (given their stronger cash position) and so with the sp under 4c, I've decided to grab a few again. Just a few. If it falls lower (under the technical support of 3.5c) then I will be surprised, but will see that as an opportunity to average down and pick up some more.

Nice product, not bad management, nice prospects....but profits are very slow coming!

[simla]

Yes, the endless question of when the profit will come. Perhaps when you talk your workmates into using the stuff, Emearg! The flu statement was a good compromise position. I wonder if they are putting that position to chemists then.

[Oman]

the endless question of when the profit will come.

Hi Simla. I guess we'll all be happier when BLT moves into profit but I think Barry and the directors are sensibly investing the available resources into growing the business gradually rather than going for profit at the expense of sustainable expansion.

The recent BLT reports indicate a trend towards reduced loss and there're good reasons to expect that trend to continue. Once BLT passes into profitability the trend should continue upwards, and we'll get our long expected dividend and capital gain ...but only if BLT keeps investing sensibly in R&D for new products and patents.

Personally I'm pleased with the way Barry is running things. A year ago I thought we're all about to go belly up! The situation looks heaps better now, and that has to be attributed to the directors and especially to Barry's management.

PS. Nice to see AAC taking a 'lazy man' stake in BLT ...but I wonder whose money it was they invested?

[simla]

Hi, Oman. Yes, despite inching at things in dollar terms, things really have moved a long way in the last year or two. Totally agree that management have made a huge difference, but let's not forget that there is a fabulous bunch of scientific talent and achievement underlying it - Blis is doing well because there are talented people working together on all fronts. The much cliched "centre of excellence" perhaps?

Personally, I will be happy to hear when another market has opened outside the US, as things are generally pretty shaky in the US you would have to say. Opening in the States has obviously been a good thing, but I am nervous about that being the only destination. Still, Blis only needs a tiny market there to count as good news, so it probably doesn't matter too much.

But, Oman, did I miss something here: "PS. Nice to see AAC taking a 'lazy man' stake in BLT ...but I wonder whose money it was they invested?"

[pietrade]

--- ACC is 'us' so I'm happy to see them buying in. They havea good stake in NZO too, which is great. Let's hope BLT emulates NZO's steady rise to stardom.

[simla]

"ACC takes stake in Blis", in the Otago Daily Times, June 20. Yes, I missed that. I couldn't see it anywhere else, though? Great to see some onshore ownership. Wonder if anyone will follow their lead? If it gets reported anywhere!

The final end-of-year report today appeared to be the same as the preliminary one. But I noticed a couple of things anyway.

Firstly, I had missed this sentence last time, early in the introductory text but not repeated in the detailed discussion. "Frutarom, in conjunction with the Company is now also developing marketing strategies for Europe, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, South East Asia and Australia which it anticipates will generate initial sales in the current financial year." So there IS a definite expectation of getting sales from other markets this year, and more than one market seemed to be the implication. That's good, because the detailed discussion of each market was vague on time line - whereas that sounds pretty promising.

Secondly, on p28, cost of goods sold was $194K this year, against "sale of goods" of $608k. Last year is listed as $371k against $657k. If this really does relate apples to apples, then the company is quite right in saying they have reduced the cost of manufacture, and it also is promising for future profitability, if it scales with larger sales.

AGM in about five weeks, being another chance of news update.

[scamper]

doesn't look like much over a million shares for the month of june up to the 20th.
so, $40k worth tops.
acc wasn't exactly spending up big...

[emearg]

If you check out the significant shareholder notices(or read the article in the OTD) you will see that they aquired the preference shares as they subunderwrited the recent capital raising.

This is interesting as I don't recall reading about any subunderwrites being involved? I got the impression Edinburgh Equity were keen to get as big as stake as possible but perhaps they couldn't come up with all the required cash so sought subunderwriters?

[simla]

ACC appears to have been a sub underwriter of the preference shares, Scamper, getting $182k worth.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/61891/acc-takes-stake-blis
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLTPA/announcements/4947510

Seems like good news to me.

[simla]

This is new, isn't it?

http://www.lef.org/prod_desc/images/large_product_images/img_01300_big.jpg
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Supplements/Item01300/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene.html

Anyone know anything about this brand?

[Oman]

This is new, isn't it?

http://www.lef.org/prod_desc/images/large_product_images/img_01300_big.jpg
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Supplements/Item01300/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene.html

Anyone know anything about this brand?

LEF is the leading authority on health matters. All the doctors there are world leaders in alternative health. Check out http://www.lef.org/protocols/health_concerns/chronic_pain_02.htm and search around their site.

[simla]

So Oman, are you saying this heavily endorses the science, or are you saying this brand sells well, or both? Or something else? Yes, LEF seems to have excellent authority, but what does this mean to Blis?

[Scuffer]

Someone beat blis to it

[simla]

Interesting idea, Scuffer! But the product description says "Blis K12 (tm)", and the 2009 Blis report said "Trademark applications have been filed in the United States", so it seems unlikely this doesn't contain Blis NZ product.

[Oman]

So Oman, are you saying this heavily endorses the science, or are you saying this brand sells well, or both? Or something else? Yes, LEF seems to have excellent authority, but what does this mean to Blis?

First I'd say that the K12 is almost certainly BLT product. LEF doesn't cheat on patents.
Secondly, to be endorsed by LEF does indeed endorse the John Tagg research work, and
LEF only sells the highest quality products at the top end of the supplements market.

In my opinion, assuming this is the BLT product, this might be considered the evidence that BLT is about to become a successful business.

There have been several important milestones in the BLT upwards journey and this is one more. It's also one that I personally rank highly. I've had dealings with LEF for longer than a decade and their quality standards are very high. LEF also has a large established buyer base of members and 3rd party onsellers feeding product to customers who can afford to pay for quality products.

For BLT to have a product selling through them is the best news I've had for many months. We just need Barry to confirm that it's a BLT ingredient and I'd expect the SP to increment upwards.

PS. I've sent an email to Barry for confirmation.

[emearg]

There really shouldn't be any doubt that this is the geniune product. I say this for several main reasons.

1) Check out the references they cite. 1, 4 & 5 are all for research about Blis K12. At least one of which has had Prof Tagg contribute to it. The other two are by external to Blis (i.e. independent) researchers. I'm not sure about the other two just yet. It is likely they are for the other probiotic ingredient.

2) While it is highly unlikely LEF would have access to a rip off product, or even if they did have such a product it is highly unlikely they would use it as Frutarom own the rights for the Blis K12 ingredient and would come down on LEF like a ton of bricks. Imagine the negative publicity for LEF if it was annouced they were using fake ingredients.

3) The other products that have turned up on the web saying they contain the ingredient have never caused us to think they might be fakes, and given time Blis have annouced them. I don't see why this one should be any different?

4) Why fake a product that is hardly selling? The risk vs reward doesn't make much sense.

No, this is the real thing and based on previous announcements we can expect to see more products launched that contain the Blis K12 ingredient.

I would like to know when we can expect to see it included in yoghurt here and in Australia. From memory I believe it has been annouced that it can be included in foods in both countries, and as Blis has a relationship with Fonterra it seems likely that it will make it's way into some kind of dairy product at some point. Fonterra have been desperately trying to increase their portion of value added products since they formed in 2003(?) so this seems a very natural step.

[Oman]

Someone beat blis to it

Hi Scuffer.

I know you were 'tongue in cheek' but just to confirm I got a quick reply from Barry. The advanced oral hygiene product ingredient is indeed BLIS K12.

[Oman]

I just checked what else LEF has listed and see they have that Nature's Plus 60 lozenges Ear, Nose & Throat product with K12 Probiotics that Simla found for us.

Item Catalog Number: 25068

That's x2 BLIS ingredients products being offered by LEF and probably advertised in their glossy monthly magazine to LEF members.

This means LEF has indirectly endorsed K12 efficacy.

BLT is starting to look quite good to me. Allow 12 months and we should see some payback on our investment money.

[Scuffer]

You know me too well Oman, but good research guys it definitely looks like the sun is starting to shine and things are starting to smell sweeter pardon the pun.:D

[Cannibal]

So - they have a great product, good management, there is a strong worldwide market for it, it has the potential to cross-sell into mass market products like tooth paste and yoghurt, they have a blue chip worldwide marketing arm - the most important thing IMO.
Then the LEF information gets published - I think that it is huge - and nobody wants the shares today at 4.2 cents.

If people were prepared to pay 4.2c yesterday then why are they not being snapped up today?

What are the collective thoughts of the group please?

[neopoleII]

as a large holder for the last 8 or 9 years....(or is it 10?), and having seen my holding evaporate to vertually ziltch, I might suggest that there are a few more or maybe many more investors that also got burnt from the ever decreasing sp.
maybe oneday when the sp actually goes up, we the large longterm holders/believers might reinvest again and really push the sp.
untill there is something really positive besides hype and talk and promises, this share will languish and only the newbies will take a punt.
its up to management to start producing the goods, after 8 or 9 years of listening to them talk, and spending my $100s Ks on salaries, I like others want to see results before we reinvest and try to recapture our loses.
NZ is small and most investors with real money know all about BLT.

BUT........ things could be turning, just like last year and the year before that and before that and that one tooooooo..........

be carefull.
share price wont rise on 3 or 4k here and there, it needs big investment, and sales and divis to reinforce that investment.

my pick is another 3 years at best.

regards
ipo investor

[neopoleII]

just went back to page one of this thread and started reading, on page 2 i made comments about the wonderfull news at that time (2007), and my concerns about the sp.
and here we are in the present........ and still going down hill.

anyone planning to invest should read the whole thread before pressing a buy button.

[simla]

On LEF, I get that LEF are important for health - but I still don't get why they are especially important to Blis's future, different to other outlets?

On the share price, it will move when there is a profit. The difference now is that markets are opening around the world, so that is finally a seemingly imminent event. I have had shares for many years too, but only started stocking up over the last year or so, because I finally see the potential being realised.

Looking at the share price now versus the potential, you have to wonder how much more reward people are looking for? Still, the way of the market seems to be for everybody to try to jump on at the last moment - so personally I'm more or less expecting nothing much, followed by dramatic rise when the market finally notices. Whenever that is. ACC just noticed, on the other hand.

First, however, catch your rabbit! A profit over the full year seems pretty likely, but what about the current half year? It's summer in the northern hemisphere. Will people buy it anyway? Will new manufacturers order enough off their own bat regardless? Will Australia pick up again? Are Asian outlets stocking up on the stuff even now, unknown to us? Lots of unknowns, no answers.

I'd love, too, to be told what promotion is going on around the world - having manufacturers and outlets is fine, but just how much effort is going into building consumer bases, and who is paying for it - we simply cannot tell that from another country unless Blis NZ tells us.

One big change recently though, after the shock of a large rights issue, is that suddenly none of us seems to be feeling the future can hold dark news.

[emearg]

That's x2 BLIS ingredients products being offered by LEF and probably advertised in their glossy monthly magazine to LEF members.

This means LEF has indirectly endorsed K12 efficacy.

Here is a search I created a couple of days ago.
http://search.lef.org/search/default.aspx?s=1&QUERY=k12

Today another entry turned up (I'm pretty sure it wasn't there on Wednesday) under the article section.

It comes from their 'Life Extension Magazine July 2009'. I presume that this might be the same as the print version that Oman mentioned?

Here is the link to the first page of the article. There are two pages, and clinking on the link from the search will take you to the second page...

http://www.lef.org/magazine/mag2009/jul2009_Optimal-Oral-Health-Reduces-Degenerative-Diseases_01.htm

On the second page the string 'K12' shows up 15 times.

There are 63 references cited in the article. This is an article with credibility me thinks. So yes, I think LEF have implicitly endorsed K12's efficacy.

[simla]

Thanks, Emearg. That article was the best advert for Blis I've ever seen. More than one sentence, yet convincingly written in English, not jargon. Presumably a large number of people were sent it. Intriguing that the article does not link to the product, yet you are left wanting to search for it straight away.

[simla]

Interesting that Blis started out as a bad breath product, then has transformed into a seasonal protection product, but LEF are taking it firmly into a sort of healthy living market - seemingly right up there with statins and a daily aspirin. And you were right last year about them picking up on the inflammation stuff Oman.

[emearg]

just went back to page one of this thread and started reading, on page 2 i made comments about the wonderfull news at that time (2007), and my concerns about the sp.
and here we are in the present........ and still going down hill.

anyone planning to invest should read the whole thread before pressing a buy button.

And on the first page there is a link to the old thread that starts in 2002. Reading that is interesting as well, and helps to bring a persons expectations back to earth a little.

If good things are in Blis's future they won't come in a wave. There is plenty of time to hop on the Blis train, and without any pressure to buy NOW the share price will stay low for as long as it takes to actually turns a decent profit.

Perhaps in another 2 or 7 years a Blis thread won't be much different than it is today?

BLT certainly isn't a share for risk adverse or impatient people...

[simla]

Such despondency, gentlemen! Remember that a share price of 4 cents, with 138 million shares, and a PE of 15, reflects a profit of $368,000 (by my maths anyway, do your own to check), and profit of $750,000 would justify 8 cents, $1.1 million would justify 12 cents, etc.

Now, if we don't care if the price is 4 cents or 8 cents, then yes, it might be years before the price takes off. But we would care if a share was $4 or $8, so the principle is surely the same. Try buying them or selling them at 8 cents instead of 4 cents and the difference is surely clear.

Now, if the single distributor in Australia had come in at $354,000 (as they did the previous year) instead of the $74,000 they had this year, then the last half-year result would already have been a maiden half-year profit of $203,000, instead of a (very small) loss of $77,000. Surely the share price would have responded to that, so why should we expect several years to pass before the share price moves?

So, is a profit achievable in the shorter term? Remember we only saw the Animal Parade Inner Ear (seemingly the first US ingredient product) just before Christmas. But by March (4 months say), sales to new US manufacturers appear to have been $288,000 (international sales of 462 less Aus 74, less other US probably 100 max to judge by previous year). With several new manufacturers starting now according to the last report, surely another $300k for new manufacturers and $150k for repeat existing product is not pie in the sky for this half-year, total $450k, plus $50k old US continuing, $500k? And Australia might surely produce $50k, they must be trying to repair the damage to their own income. And say NZ picks up, as we are told it is already, to maybe $250k this year (from 150) and 70% is over winter, that would be $170k this half year. And if Japan and Korea are coming on stream soon, is it too much to think they may take up $100k during the current half year? Add in $150k "other revenue" as reported in the half-year last year. Then: NZ (170) + US (500) + Aus (50) + Asia (100) + other revenue (150) = $970k MIGHT be achievable this half year. So, yes, a half year profit is not hard to imagine. (And a full year profit is surely even easier to imagine.)

Will it happen though? Obviously we won't know till we get there. Is it possible though? Surely.

What of the effect of the preference shares? Say the company pays 10% on $3 million, but can only get 4% in the meantime, that is 6%, or $180,000 extra expense, or $90,000 for a half year. That should not change the odds too much?

So, yes, old posts certainly teach us that Blis moves more slowly than we hope. But it IS different now. Then, we hoped markets would open, now they have and are still opening in more places as we watch. Yes, there is no way of knowing when a profit will knock on the door, nor when the share price will move a lot. But it seems despondent to think it will be several years. In the meantime, it may only drift up to 5 cents or 6 cents over the coming 6 to 12 months, but some people would think a 25% to 50% price increase worth noticing. And surely it is not too hopeful to think it might move by more than that by this time next year? Where anyone stands on their own position during those sorts of movements over that time is, of course, for each of us to decide. And yes, it may NOT be any higher in a year's time. But surely it is despondent to actually EXPECT that it will stay at 4 cents for a year?

[neopoleII]

all i can say is,
just because new markets open, doesnt mean that those markets will make money.
to make money you have to sell a product.
and the products of BLT arent really selling at a level to turn a profit.
how long has the product been forsale in NZ? there is no incremental increase in sales that is stable, and after all these years, there is also no brand recognition.
then there is nestle, a few hours of globle turnover from this company could buy BLT outright, yet they are only looking at BLT products as a novelty at this stage.
maybe the real issue here is that no one really believes that K12 and its other stable mates are as good as BLT says, and researchers and scientists studying K12 around the world know the stuff works but cant yet figure its mechanisms to the point of endorsing it as a medicinal, so its labelled cosmetic and loses alot of comerical value.
which is why no major company is chucking cash at BLT bigtime.
Over time, K12 will make its own mark on the world, and K12 will become a household name........ as we all know here, its a great product, too bad a bunch sandel wearing doctors wanted to market K12 themselves.
i fully endorse K12 and will retire from the marketing and sales of K12 in the future, but untill there is product takeup from markets or the likes of nestle, its a slow road uphill.

as a side note,
VCR just went bust around xmas and they were a world leader of heart pumps and on the cutting edge of science.,
Just when they went bust, they got approval to start selling the pumps in the US mainstream, and still could not get backing with a world first 3rd generation product.

like posters have said, there is no rush to buy.
let the directors post a profit, let the directors anounce real life contracts with big companies, let the mainstream public know that k12 is something they want, and then, then start buying from 10 or 20c and ride it up to blue skies.

ps my break even is 23c now, from a $1 inital entry.
i still believe it will be a ten bagger for me
if not...... its the most expensive lesson of my life,
lucky I have ppp and nzo.

[simla]

Fair enough, NeopoleII. You and I have just put the two possible opposing views of where BLT is. So, that also answers why the share price isn't doing much - even those of us who believe in this thing aren't sure what will happen next. The figures I put up in my last post are indeed possible. They are even the figures that probably most here hope will be true. But there is no knowing if they will actually happen, or whether instead BLT history will go on as it has before - ie. pretty slowly.

It's pretty difficult to know how to react to the current situation. On the one hand, if 23 cents turns out to be a 10 bagger, then 4 cents would be a 60 bagger. But on the other hand, it's hard to put money in when years of experience shows it hasn't led to any profit. Those are the two opposing "compelling truths" here, and only one of them can in the end be true. I imagine the reason we gather in this group is to try to get a feeling from others as to which of them is the wise one to act on.

Since your break even is 23 cents down from $1, you have probably made the same compromise decision I imagine most of us have made - put more money in over time, but not throw the kitchen sink at it. I guess I've done something like that, although probably each of us has made a different choice over just how far to go.

As an added note, though, I can certainly agree there is no chance of the share price being measured in dollars any time soon, if that is what people are holding out for. It may perhaps happen some time if things work out very well indeed, but the evidence before us is a long way short of supporting that idea as it stands.

[caesar]

I liked getting a hard copy of the annual report in the mail. I don't get these sent very much anymore so I decided to read this one cover to cover. I think it was quite a good quality report. No pictures - who needs them!

Agree with Neoplole and disagree with Simla. First of all on the Australian Sales. On page 4 (operations report) under the header "Australia"there is an admission that "the decrease [in profits] was due to high opening distributor inentory levels". In other words, sales arn't actually sales to end consumers. In Australia most of the product never reached the end consumer and was dumped/stored and sold to customers this year. Hence lower orders of inventory this year (and lower sales for Blis).

How much product actually reached the hands of consumers? We don't know from the information provided. Hence, any conclusions/estimaetes as to the performance of "sales" arn't very reliable

But speaking of sales. According to page 4, there is a "re-launch"programme in New Zealand "which includes new advertising and promotional activities. The results of these activities are now only being realised. Significant improvements in retail sales accross all products have been observed." I like the sound of this! This is really stoking my fire. Is it true? What do they mean "significant"? What does this mean in $$$'s ? Where is this promotional material?

The numbers are so small in the financial statements as to make them irrelevant. It is almost impossible to value the company from projections made of these numbers. Your local dairy probababaly has a bigger and more reliable sales and COGS than this

So the operations report seems to me to be the only bit that matters with respect to the share price. So I wonder - who is it written for? There is no "dear shareholders" at the front. So it hasn't been written for us! I get the impression this person isn't writing to anyone but trying to please everyone. There are bits here that will please the distributors, the employees, the marketers. the academics and the shareholders. As a result there are pages upon pages without a clear message. So what is the strategy? "Strategy" is a word which comes up in all of their communications. But does anyone actually know what it is?

I think your interpretation of the report depends on how much belief and faith you have. There are no concrete facts. That is why none of the really big players are investing in BLIS. It is a gamble that you play with hopefully only a small amount of money. If you are into fundamentals you have nothing to go by. If you are into technicals you have no liquidity. If you are into CAPM then the Beta on this bad boy is probably irrelevant. And that is why the share price aint going to increase to any great degree anytime soon

[caesar]

If anyone is attending the shareholders meeting can they please ask what the first quarter sales figure is? If they are going to put this statement about "significant" sales increases in their report then they should provide some figures to back it up.

[simla]

If we're discussing the ins and outs of where things stand at present, we probably shouldn't forget to mention the world economy. If we have another large downturn, as some are predicting, then that will inevitably affect things pretty noticeably.

Actually, I think the most noticeable pattern in posts new and old is not so much the ongoing optimism, but the ongoing uncertainty of what the future holds. It will be nice one day to get to a point where we finally know whether the world does or does not intend to buy this product!

[neopoleII]

and that is why the sp is where it is, and will remain so until the board can prove the bottom line is moving up.

[emearg]

And if Japan and Korea are coming on stream soon, is it too much to think they may take up $100k during the current half year?


So, yes, old posts certainly teach us that Blis moves more slowly than we hope

To answer your first question taking into account the second quoted point...yes it IS too much to hope they will contribute $100k during the current half year.

The annual report says marketing strategies are being developed for these markets and anticipates it will generate some initial sales in the current financial year. Past experience suggests it will be next year, and the initial sales won't be significant.

Later it says finished retail products could be launched in Korea in early 2010. That isn't in the first half year.

And the blurb about Japan is pretty vague. The product launch was delayed a year in 2008. Was it meant to launch in early or late 2008? I'm not holding my breath for this to produce revenues any time soon...

Let us wait until we are told that a market IS on stream and then we can start speculating on how much revenue may be produced from it.

The good news is that a lot of things are all happening at the same time, and with Frutarom taking part in these activities I am expecting to see a lot more progress being made than has been achieved with Blis working alone, or with the help of a few distributors.

Everything I have seen and read about Frutarom suggests they have real muscle. For an outfit this size they should be all talk and no action but there is plenty of action. The results so far back this view.

I ran a Google search on "Optimal Oral Health Reduces Degenerative Diseases" yesterday. There were seven results. Now there are nine. These aren't huge numbers (but might become significant given time) but the key thing is the article is being published on other sites and is being talked about. This is good.


Interesting that Blis started out as a bad breath product, then has transformed into a seasonal protection product, but LEF are taking it firmly into a sort of healthy living market - seemingly right up there with statins and a daily aspirin. And you were right last year about them picking up on the inflammation stuff Oman.

Yup, and this is significant. Now that K12 is sold as an ingredient the number of potential uses/the ways in which it can be marketed has grown hugely. It is no longer limited to what Blis could envisage/afford to launch.

Different people are using the ingredient in products aimed at different target markets. We have the cold season covered, bad breath, inner ear health for kids, several products covering general health for all people and Nestle are working on an infant health product. It will be interesting to see what comes next. There have been suggestions of inclusion in yoghurt and toothpaste. Both make sense but who knows if they will make it to market?

I am enjoying watching there progress. I don't have expectations around the share price, but at some point if Blis do pull off their strategy and start producing significant and repeatable profits then the share price will start to reflect where the business is at.

Until then all we can do is observe progress and buy or sell or run a country mile...

[Lizard]

I'm just disappointed it has become so expensive - even if there is snazzy foil packaging for my $'s. No longer keeping K12 Throatguard in the cupboard as a staple medical item.

[emearg]

Another Google search (life extension "Advanced Oral Hygiene") returns 147 results

The first page of results link to six online retailers selling the new product.

No mucking around in the online retailing world it seems?!!!

It will be very interesting to see how much the US contributes to the first halves revenues.

Anybody want to offload their preference shares? ;-)

[simla]

Hey, Emearg, I thought you thought I was being too optimistic! Actually, it seems we are not too optimistic on business progress, but the dollars are harder to pick. I'll put my optimism away for a while anyway, and just wait and see what happens.

[emearg]

Hey, Emearg, I thought you thought I was being too optimistic! Actually, it seems we are not too optimistic on business progress, but the dollars are harder to pick. I'll put my optimism away for a while anyway, and just wait and see what happens.

No I just think you are trying a bit hard to count the eggs before they are laid. We know we have several chooks in the hen house. Some of them are laying. Some of them might lay this year or next. We might even get another chook or three over the next wee while. How many eggs will be laid is very hard to determine...but as Blis reckons they have enough cash to survive another three years I'm not focusing just on the revenue. Successful execution of their strategy is more important to me. This appears to be going well. Revenue/profits will flow if they get the business side right.

I am keen for June next year. The full year result will make interesting reading...

But I am going to enjoy the time between now and then and not stress over my BLT holding.

Cheers
Eme

[jonu]

Hi all
This is my first post on this site, but I have been following the discussion for a while.

Simla your detail in research is appreciated and I wouldn't let your enthusiasm for the near prospects of BLT be dampened too much. I suppose it all depends on where on the mountain you're taking in the view.

I don't see any reason why the sp isn't around 10c when you compare it to the likes of WDT or SLG. Perhaps it is history holding it back. I think Neopole said he had averaged down to 23c and I guess I would be pretty cynical from that position. However if the sp was 23c I'd be knocking them back in the Med instead of enduring NZ July.

Frankly I think the stars are pretty much in alignment for an upturn in the price that should be sustained through even modest earnings. There is significant international muscle lined up in both Nestle & Frutarom and the number of markets coming on stream is impressive.

[simla]

Thanks, Jonu.

[emearg]

Simla, I also appreciate your analysis and observations. You have certainly pointed out things that I was not aware of or had forgotten about.

I do not intend to quell your enthusiasm or optimism for the future of Blis

I am optimist about Blis as well, as you will no doubt have noted from my earlier posts. However I prefer to be conservative about what will be achieved in a given timeframe. Naturally I am happy to have my expectations exceeded.

I think right now is the best Blis has ever been, and I am reasonably confident that things will slowly get better and better

I also consider the shares cheap based on their prospects. And I say this based on market cap, rather than the price of each individual share.

So based on recent events, especially the new LEF product (which is already being widely distributed and well marketed) I have bought some more this week

PS Jonu, welcome to the forum :-)

[simla]

Hey, don't worry about me. We all chip in here, and it is the exchange of ideas that I'm sure gives many of us, including me, the confidence to buy some more from time to time, in the absence of actual profits.

But I'd make a point about the share price that doesn't seem to be getting much attention. Consider this:

If the share price was $2 instead of 4 cents (50 times the price), then it would be very necessary to be looking for the usual company metrics, consistency etc, because it would have a lot of ground to make up in profit to value out at $2. It would have to make maybe $30 million profit pa now (assuming 238 million shares, ie. about 13 cents a share) just to justify the $2, at a PE of 15. AND then go on compounding that at 10%pa to double to $4 after 7 years. But at 4 cents, a lot of things can go wrong and yet this will still stack up well - it only has to be making maybe $1m pa in a long 7 years from now (about .5 cents a share then) to represent about that same investment value, with the share price then doubled at about 8 cents (ie. current price compounding at 10% over the next 7 years.) All figures very approximate. Do your own maths as usual. Rebuttals welcome.

Most of us are probably pretty confident it will be making a lot more than $1m by 7 years from now, yet that 10% compounding would be a pretty happy return for most shares over the coming 7 years (or for houses, or for money in the bank - if inflation doesn't set in.) Of course, we all keep growing older under that sort of reasoning ... happily we are expecting progress somewhat faster.

[Oman]

Regarding SP and future earnings etc. has anyone wondered why the recent rights conversion was set at between 25:1 and 100:1 per convertible share?

For a business that appears to have been turned around from a one-product company to one with multiple K12 products, and with K17 in the background as a potential follow-up development area, it has made me wonder.

If there's a share split I expect the conversion to be pro rata so why did BLT write in 100:1 at all? Disaster position maybe?

The other question is the manufacturing and inventory. Presumably BLT has followed through on the USA/India location idea, but inventory holding and distribution ties up heaps of capital even with good JIT management ...so where's that money coming from? Trade credit? ...ummm. Maybe.

There are still a few questions lingering. Maybe we will get answers next week as I expect Barry will make a 'current good news' announcement just before the Annual Meeting.

[simla]

Here's an interesting link with a Taiwanese web address, selling the Blis Fresh Breath kit.

http://store.pchome.com.tw/healthplus/M03955306.htm

(To translate: http://babelfish.yahoo.com/ , Chinese to English)

The web site itself seems to say Blis was added on 19 June. And according to Babelfish, the automatic translation website (wonderful invention), the company's physical address is in the Taiwanese city of Changhua City, itself a fairly small city of 230,000 people, but which Google Earth shows as part of a very much larger urban area (sorry for my ignorance, I haven't been there). They seem to sell a range of healthy NZ goods (such as Manuka honey, flax fibre and aloe vera) plus healthy foods.

Now the last Blis report said of Taiwan: "While an earlier project in Taiwan has been delayed, additional projects have now commenced through Futarom. Early progress in this market will be subject to regulatory approval." (p6). Since this has recently appeared, and has a Taiwanese web address, and a Taiwanese company street address, does that mean Blis is now on sale in Taiwan (pop 23m)? And does that mean there is regulatory approval then? Or is the fresh breath kit a different rule perhaps? Hard to say what this implies really.

Does anyone read Chinese and can tell us more? Babelfish translates the product name, for example, as "Li Shi-tone cloth fresh group"! And does anyone know enough about Taiwan to suggest how significant this site is? The translation of the company blurb may say (!) that this company is on a TV shopping channel also.

Is this an actual opening into Taiwan, or just a one-off of some sort? Very hard to tell through the translations!

[simla]

I've figured out some basic web searching in other languages now.

As usual, the crowd in Dunedin are well ahead of us. Who knows what else they've been up to. According to babblefish, http://www.e-isk.com/news20090518.html says this (seems to give a slightly different translation each time):

"News release 2009 May 18th
The lactobacillus in your New Zealand departure mouth (K12) finally the Japanese landing!!

This time, at our company it imports & sells the patent product “epoca” which uses the lactobacillus “K12” in the patent product of the New Zealand BLIS corporation and the mouth.
Is already attracted attention in such as dentistry industry the tooth lap to illness measure, as the CARE commodity inside the new buccal cavity from bad breath improvement. "

And a brochure at http://www.e-isk.com/epoca090514

Again, what does this imply? Is Blis in Japan now (pop 130m), or is this some sort of one-off thing again. Again, this is an importer, and the product label is in English. So maybe both of these companies have just done this themselves? Or have Blis/Frutarom worked out they can sell the breath kits while waiting for approval for the other? Who knows. Next week's presentation should be interesting whatever.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Very interesting finds Simla.

K12 has been on sale in Japan (and Korea, I think) for at least 3 years as "Aktiv-K12", through Dr Honda's dental network (which seems to comprise 100's of clinics throughout Japan). Dr Honda is an associate of the redoutable Dr Katz and markets Therabreath products for him in Japan (see here, for example: http://www.honda.or.jp/k12). So presumably K12 is legal for OTC sales in Japan and has been for some time - at least as a "cosmetic". The "Epoca" product seems to comprise lozenges instead of the Aktiv-K12 "expelable" formulation, so this may indicate a change in regulatory status?

One senses that sales momentum is finally beginning to build - could be an exciting time ahead and it's been a very long time since I've felt any excitement with BLIS. Mind you there has been many a false dawn with this one I'm afraid. Still holding MANY shares, still waiting .... Enjoying your enthusiasm.

BF

[simla]

So, what news next week? Only about 9 months ago, there were really only two questions to answer: how was Ireland going to open; and what reaction would Blis get at the ingredients expo. We've been through a bit since then.

The two questions on the table now, less than a year later are: how many countries will Blis open in this year; and how does the company plan to market this product - now that it is available in several markets, and was NZ a model for that somehow this winter?

[Steve]

I got off the bus one morning and was accosted by someone outside a pharmacy handing out strawberry tablets as part of a Blis promotion. While they tasted ok, I don't recall which product it actually was...

[simla]

That's really interesting, Steve. Someone's definitely putting in effort. For myself, I've only seen it mentioned in about 3 chemist flyers this year, nothing else. What have other people come across? Marketing and promotion seem to me to be the big topic now that we know the markets are going to open and the company is financially secure for some time at least.

[mccollr]

Did all shareholders here purchase the half price offer to shareholders a few months back for "Blis Restore". Great product.
Maybe a bit of promotion from within would be a great start. I bought 10 packs that I have given to friends as they recoup from illness or the flu.
Rod

[Steve]

Did all shareholders here purchase the half price offer to shareholders a few months back for "Blis Restore". Great product.
Maybe a bit of promotion from within would be a great start. I bought 10 packs that I have given to friends as they recoup from illness or the flu.
Rod

I have never located that piece of mail, so I missed out on that one... :(

[simla]

Here's a Japanese site selling the breath kit. The translation wittily instructs us to take the mouthwash every 4 minutes ... http://www.siis-store.com/4_17.html I cannot see the physical address in the translations, but domaintools.com reports the domain name owner and server as both in Japan.

I hope tomorrow's news gives us an idea of the scale of what they are doing in Asia currently. These little glimpses are hard to read.

[emearg]

People can subscribe to a daily email from Life Extension. They are pretty interesting.

Today's email covered the Advanced Oral Hygiene product that contains K12.

Here it is FYI:

Promote Optimal Oral Health with Probiotics-With Advanced Oral Hygiene from Life Extension

Business Wire

07-28-09

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., Jul 28, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Based on extensive research, Life Extension introduces Advanced Oral Hygiene, an oral health lozenge that contains the probiotics S. salivarius and B. coagulans, two strains of beneficial bacteria to help maintain healthy teeth and gums. Similar to the mechanisms involved with probiotics which target the gut, these probiotics populate the mouth cavity with beneficial bacteria which provide protection against harmful bacteria that are implicated in the accumulation of dental film.

An Advanced Oral Hygiene lozenge popped in the mouth once or twice daily after brushing goes to work immediately, ramping up production of bacterial-inhibiting compounds and restoring a healthy oral balance.

Scientists have found that S. salivarius and B. coagulans may also help boost immune system response. A recent study shows that oral ingestion of S. salivarius helps inhibit the production of inflammatory cytokines throughout the body. In vitro studies show that B. coagulans enhances white blood cells' surveillance for bacterial invaders, boosts immune response to a simulated bacterial attack, and enhances the activity of another type of immune cell called natural killer cells.

Advanced Oral Hygiene from Life Extension may also be an important answer for those with bad breath! A clinical study shows that 85% of subjects with halitosis who received S. salivarius experienced a substantial improvement with lower bacterial counts as compared to 30% in the placebo group.

[simla]

Life Extension is an alluring site, isn't it. They obviously have heaps of research for the science, but do we know if people who have followed their advice for some time are achieving measurable results? Fascinating, either way. And does it matter what age you are when you start!

In any case, they seem to know how to sell stuff. The article on Blis was easily readable yet convincing, and that email is the same. And sending out the email a month later as a sort of reinforcement is probably more effective than sending it out the same time as the article. I quite liked the "once or twice daily". Skilled writing.

Too, I just noticed that it was a press release which can be found over the internet now, including Yahoo news fleetingly.

[Oman]

The sp at 4.9 cps seems rather depressed considering all the information our thread 'spies' are uncovering. I wonder if it will bounce to 12-15 cps which is where perhaps it should be. Tomorrow and the following fortnight should show us what the informed buyers think.

I suspect there are some large holders waiting to off-load though. That Southern Hire group for example. If they do then that'll restrain any upside I expect.

[simla]

Hardly spies, Oman, just searching the internet for publicly available information! However, nice to hear someone saying that the share price doesn't make much sense at this level. We'll hear later today whether the price should be up right now. Only two months since the last update, so great cash news seems a bit much to hope for, but market news could be interesting.

[simla]

Anyone who hasn't read the releases on the Blis web site should do so. It doesn't get much better than that. As well as lots of terrific market news, it even says "Have periods of positive cash flow - yet to break-even each month". Well, we know what the large issue was for - there was a lot in the wind.

[Oman]

Spy comment was with the nicest regards to your very helpful research Simla.

The press release couldn't really be much better. Barry and the BLT team are doing a great job in my opinion. Just a tiny SP movement to 5 cps but it'll take a week or two for the $ potential of the BLT strategy to hit the radar of the big players.

[simla]

You might get your 12 to 15 cents soon after all, Oman. That was much quicker progress than we have been daring to expect.

[jonu]

I agree Simla. It would be nice to see it build above the 10 cps over a 2-3 week period and be sustainable.

The CEO address was spectacularly good news and the market growth should be exponential.

[simla]

There's a lot of good news in there. One bit that has me wondering is the "positive cashflow" idea. Given that Blis has capitalised a lot of expenses in the past, and presumably will continue to do so, does "positive cashflow" mean they are covering those capitalised expenses as well, which would then look pretty nice on a profit and loss statement, if so? Does that seem logical, or am I reading too much into that?

[scamper]

currently 7.3 cps and the nearest seller at 8.9 cps.
however, a 50% jump (or whatever it is) on a mere 444k, is not exactly a well-
established rise. simla, are you buying???
just don't get too excited...