BLT - Blis Technologies

[pierre]

Good support; has someone a sniff of the contents of the research report?

Maybe you could just get the crystal ball into action again Pat and tell us what the report says? It would save us all a lot of anguish waiting for the good news to be revealed.

[patrick]

The bank not open till the morning.

[patrick]

pierre,
Not much luck, starts with Bonjourno but very cloudy after that. The light in the vault was not that great.
The report is about 13 pages but the only words, part words i could see were, in order
.oto bu..o: brutto: .llev... (might be alleviate): nicenca: bene res..iane: ore.ch.:
Looks like Italian, could be some experts over there perhaps?
The fee was in Euro but all i could work out was that it was a 4 figure amount, so not spending heaps.

[winner69]

Andrew's 31 page report out

Think it says BLT worth around 9 cents now

Bug numbers on his S-curve

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241758.pdf

Good guy that Andrew and pretty clued up

[simla]

Winner, I don't believe it. You've become a total convert, I do believe!

Anyway, that report should set the cat amongst the pigeons. Depends if anyone sees it, I suppose.

[Bjauck]

Andrew's 31 page report out

Think it says BLT worth around 9 cents now

Bug numbers on his S-curve

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241758.pdf

Good guy that Andrew and pretty clued up

Bliss announces the report as an "Independent Research Report". It may well be, however they have paid for it and the report itself is titled "Backing The Good Guys".

[fungus pudding]

Winner, I don't believe it. You've become a total convert, I do believe!

Anyway, that report should set the cat amongst the pigeons. Depends if anyone sees it, I suppose.

Also depends if anyone believes it.


BLT
22/08/2016 08:53
RESEARCH
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0853 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited

RESEARCH: BLT: Independent Research Report

22nd August 2016

NZX - For Immediate Release

At the Annual Shareholders' Meeting on 29 July we advised that, in the light
of our recent achievements and the increased activity on the share register,
in order to better inform existing and potential shareholders Blis
Technologies Limited ("Blis") is commissioning an independent research report
that will be released to the market.

We attach herewith that report prepared by Andrew Mortimer of Eastbourne
Advisory Limited ("EAL"). The opinions contained in the report including any
forward looking statements and forecasts are those of EAL at the time of
publication.

Although commissioned by Blis Technologies Limited the report has been
prepared and issued by EAL for publication. All information used in the
publication of the report has been compiled by EAL from publicly available
sources that are believed to be reliable. However, neither Blis nor EAL
guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report.
Brian Watson
Chief Executive Officer
End CA:00287583 For:BLT Type:RESEARCH Time:2016-08-22 08:53:53

[simla]

An excellent report which I enjoyed reading.

That report had a whole lot of detail that I have been keen to see for a while. For instance, finally the news that functional food is not a priority following being burnt trying the ice cream (presumably the push for profit comes first?). Also much discussion on a market by market basis. Also news that the problem in the US was triggered by the tiny point of the labelling for an import being "dietary supplement" instead of "ingredients for a dietary supplement". Wow!

That report predicts revenue of 12m in 2018 and 18m in 2019. And $100m by 2025. p21. All very hard to predict obviously, as he says himself, and so I'm not sure that there is a lot of point in presuming those figures are more likely than others, although he creditably and helpfully explained his reasoning in depth, which I enjoyed reading. I'm hoping for more growth myself in the shorter term, but again that is just a guess. He is predicting a 1m cash gain over the current year. p22.

He paints a company that (as I read it) essentially could be described as (a) sitting in a pretty good position, but (b) subject to considerable uncertainty. Well, that would be fair comment surely. I didn't really feel he actually tried terribly definitely to value it, more describe the considerable range of considerations in play. I see why you say he valued it at 9 cents, but I'm not sure that I would exactly put it that way myself.

I would perhaps mention the possible discussion points: Blis has other trade secret products of which we know nothing; Blis is hoping to profit from marketing expertise rather than straight scientific efficacy, which may have a range of possible outcomes in market share; nobody knows how big the oral probiotic market may eventually be (comparing it to the existing yoghurt-dominated market is helpful but not necessarily correct, and he makes that very point himself.)

Anyway, an excellent report and I have enjoyed reading it. A very solid contribution indeed to the consideration of BLT as a share. I thought he really understood the company very well indeed, and also expressed his ideas very clearly. What will the market do, I wonder?

[simla]

Am I correct in this understanding: there are many bodies that cannot buy Blis shares unless there is an analysis report (such as this one) and so the point of such a report is not to try and drag in the punters but rather to open the door to a lot of investors who are now free to buy BLT? Or have I just imagined that somehow?

[Balance]

Am I correct in this understanding: there are many bodies that cannot buy Blis shares unless there is an analysis report (such as this one) and so the point of such a report is not to try and drag in the punters but rather to open the door to a lot of investors who are now free to buy BLT? Or have I just imagined that somehow?

Most fund managers cannot invest in a company until certain criteria are met - this may or may not include a research report. More critical to them are factors like integrity of management and board (#1), quality and growth potential of business, risk profile etc. A research report can help address these issues.

Then there are some (like Milford and Harbour) who actually prefer no research for small caps as they have their own analysts and can invest well ahead of the pack when they see a good opportunity.

Bliss has been around a long long time and have had quite a number of analysts from the likes of Milford look closely at them.

Check the register and if you see the likes of Milford in there, that is usually a very good sign.

[winner69]

Punters like it

BLT top of the leader board today

[simla]

Thanks, Balance.

[Leftfield]

Punters like it

BLT top of the leader board today

After a v quick read, I like it too! (Happy holder.)

Particularly like predictions of a 1.5 cps Div in 2018 and 3.0 cps in 2019!

[simla]

p21 refers to a projection (in the table) of 0.1 cents in 2018 and 0.3 cents in 2019. p22 refers to $1.5m total dividends in 2018 and $3.3m in 2019. But that was just the report's guess, I would have said. Didn't see a 1.5 cent dividend suggestion myself?

I'm not sure we can place too much weight on projected figures given all the uncertainty. The report was upbeat though, to use our new favourite adjective.

[Leftfield]

p21 refers to a projection (in the table) of 0.1 cents in 2018 and 0.3 cents in 2019. p22 refers to $1.5m total dividends in 2018 and $3.3m in 2019. But that was just the report's guess, I would have said. Didn't see a 1.5 cent dividend suggestion myself?

I'm not sure we can place too much weight on projected figures given all the uncertainty. The report was upbeat though, to use our new favourite adjective.

Agree. The figs a purely predictions.

[simla]

The report was called "Backing The Good Guys". I think that must be a reference to the probiotics themselves, and was therefore intended to be a brief statement of the purpose of the business?

[simla]

The company got this report out pretty quickly. That matches a continuing pattern of activity we're seeing lately. Good to see.

One explanation for this would lie in the increased cash flow making it possible for the company to do more and more quickly, that the days of struggling are largely in the past. That would also imply faster progress in future too.

We've been seeing good news out of the company continuously for about 3 or 4 years now. It's all very encouraging. The big news we want, of course, is what the revenue will be in the next 2 to 5 years, to get an idea of where this journey is finally taking us. Every 6 months will bring us more news there, but a pity we cannot accelerate time. Still, we can enjoy the ongoing good news.

[Bjauck]

The report was called "Backing The Good Guys". I think that must be a reference to the probiotics themselves, and was therefore intended to be a brief statement of the purpose of the business?

I think it is intended to be a "clever" title which ambiguously could be applied to the probiotics themselves or to the inference that the people behind Bliss are "good guys". TBH, It is the type of title I would expect to see for a marketing pamphlet.

[GTM 3442]

Don't like the reference to "Rubicon" in the first bullet point. Bad omen.

Just going out now - to throw a pinch of salt over a black cat's shoulder before I cross my fingers. . .

[simla]

On further cogitation of the report:

p8. China: lozenge difficult legally presently so current strategy to maximise food and powder opportunities. Could be good news, as I remain convinced that the food route remains a very valuable one, whereas p13 says functional food not a priority (understandably as the other market is working well) so a chance to maybe advance things out of simple necessity.

p8 China, going for powder. p9. Japan: Blis has seen significant growth in the dental channel. Does this refer to the Brian brand, which is a dental powder instead of toothpaste? Could go down well in China then, maybe? Personally, I have hardly ever used any toothpaste for several years now, instead relying on all those billions of Blis microbes from the lozenges, and my dentist is always really impressed with my teeth.

Overall, the picture painted is one of "can the marketing gain access to the potentially huge markets?", I would have said. This probably paints more clearly why the company is talking marketing all the time, not just to change orientation but because the next barrier is to get into the markets that others already have.

But interesting to ask if others really do already have those markets? Is Blis carving out a new road of its own maybe? Given the CEO's background, I imagine he is really relishing testing that question in reality.

So overall I would maybe read this as: Blis has a great product and has made some great progress, but can it hit the big time? That would be a question we all want to know the answer to! To me, that shows that the writer really did "get" what Blis is and where it is. A solid report.

[winner69]

I think it is intended to be a "clever" title which ambiguously could be applied to the probiotics themselves or to the inference that the people behind Bliss are "good guys". TBH, It is the type of title I would expect to see for a marketing pamphlet.

About as good as the On the edge of glory Edison used on a PEB report last year

On the subject of PEB that Andrew guy apparently did a lot of work for them last year

[simla]

The report makes an interesting point about tax losses, p17. Assuming the tax losses still stand, then they will mean the company does not have to pay taxes on profits, but will not be available for imputation so shareholders will still have to pay tax on dividends anyway. This matches my own understanding that imputation credits are only available for actual cash the company has paid the tax department, which it obviously hasn't done on losses or offset profits.

Yet this still seems pretty weird to me. Yes, the company can use those losses to build up its balance sheet therefore (by not paying tax for a bit) but it doesn't benefit the shareholders in current tax. Anyone able to comment on this oddity?

[GR8DAY]

Hi Simla.........sorry havnt had a chance to fully digest this report yet but on the surface I see it as a positive yet balanced overview of things as they stand......and going forward. It certainly doesnt come across to me as a "paid for" valuation as some are suggesting.........but I'll read on. All in all I detect a tone of valid growing optimism for the company with some potentially huge prospects there for the future (China) ........should things continue to fall into place. In regard the tax losses the bean counters may well decide that any dividend may be increased due to these available tax losses ....so yes us S/Holders could get some benefit depending how they handle it?? Either way, Happy Holder here.

[Harvey Specter]

Yet this still seems pretty weird to me. Yes, the company can use those losses to build up its balance sheet therefore (by not paying tax for a bit) but it doesn't benefit the shareholders in current tax. Anyone able to comment on this oddity?Correct. But if they do build up a cash surplus (surely they would use for expansion rather than return to SH), then they could do a capital distribution. Can't remember exact rules but distribution needs to be more than 10% of market value and no more than the capital paid into the company to qualify as not subject to tax.

[simla]

Thanks for that.

[GR8DAY]

.......printed report should be in our hands by end of week apparently.......according to some old rocker "there ain't nothing like the real thing baby".....gotta agree with that sentiment.

[NeverQuestion]

The report was called "Backing The Good Guys". I think that must be a reference to the probiotics themselves, and was therefore intended to be a brief statement of the purpose of the business?

Given how many shares are out there would there not be a concern now around share price consolidation?

Did anyone at the meeting ask about this or just happy to not bring up the subject :cool:

[huxley]

Given how many shares are out there would there not be a concern now around share price consolidation?

Did anyone at the meeting ask about this or just happy to not bring up the subject :cool:

Would this be a big issue? As long as the shares are consolidated for everyone then you'll still have the same stake in the company.

I think I read something about them considering doing this but it would cost something like $30k which would be a poor use of funds at this stage.

[pierre]

Would this be a big issue? As long as the shares are consolidated for everyone then you'll still have the same stake in the company.

I think I read something about them considering doing this but it would cost something like $30k which would be a poor use of funds at this stage.

You're correct Huxley. I asked the question and that was the response. Good to see the company having a responsible attitude to use of its resources.

[artemis]

In the report, the analyst lists quite a few risks. What matters with risks is how they are managed and IMO this should be the #1 focus of management. I'd like to see some evidence of strong mitigation activity.

Risks, summarised. Pretty good list, but nothing about key staff / succession planning I note. :

- Customer concentration
- Failure to successfully implement strategies.
- Changes in regulations or laws.
- Contamination of products.
- Exchange rate risks.
- Liquidity risk.
- Small companies generally carry higher levels of risk.

[Leon]

All is quiet. We are getting closer to the end of sales for the first 6 months of 2016. Wonder if we are ahead or marginally behind projected sales. :)

[Leftfield]

All is quiet. We are getting closer to the end of sales for the first 6 months of 2016. Wonder if we are ahead or marginally behind projected sales. :)

Gonna be interesting!

[NeverQuestion]

Gonna be interesting!

When is it Due?:t_up:

[patrick]

When is it Due?:t_up:

Posting at 1.06am?
Not worth losing sleep, all will be well.

[Apathy]

Posting at 1.06am?
Not worth losing sleep, all will be well.

I predict impending capital raising

[Leftfield]

I predict impending capital raising

Quote from the 2016 Annual Report.

"Year-on-year revenues continue to grow and the Companyrecorded an operating cash surplus for the final quarterof the year and expects to report its first net surplus forthe year to 31 March 2017."

Time will tell.

[Leftfield]

But wait there is more.... this from the recent 'independent report' by Eastbourne Advisory Ltd.

"After 15 years as a listed entity, Blis appears to have crossed the Rubicon on its pathtowards profitability. At its AGM “the company said it “has reached a critical point where the revenue being generated allows it to cover its basic cost structure” and that “the strong sales growth being experienced reflects growing acceptance of the underlying science of Blis products, particularly in the US, Europe and Japan”.

Why we like the story is that probiotic, sore throat and supplement markets are in growth mode, Blis revenues are showing growth well in excess of market growth and the company has regulatory acceptance in most major markets. The business also has high gross margins, in the sector it operates, there are few probiotic competitors, antibiotic competitors are seeing increases in bacterial resistance and anew branded strategy to us looks like the right path to take. Further, recent revenue surprises have all been positive. "

So all looks fine.... except one wonders why bother with an 'independent report?' Maybe Apathy is right.

[Apathy]

But wait there is more.... this from the recent 'independent report' by Eastbourne Advisory Ltd.



So all looks fine.... except one wonders why bother with an 'independent report?' Maybe Apathy is right.

It's hard to see where the cash might be used (if all information is accurate) but I am not sure why you would want to spend money justifying (badly) the share price if not in anticipation of a capital raising.

Try finding anything about Eastbourne online.....

[Leftfield]

News Release
For immediate release
September 22, 2016
Blis Technologies Wins Two Awards in Deloitte Fast 50
NZX-listed Blis Technologies Limited last night received two Otago Southland awards in the Deloitte Fast 50 at an event in Dunedin last night. Fast 50 takes place in 32 countries around the world, and the Deloitte Fast 50 ranks and celebrates fast-growing companies.
Blis won the awards for Fastest Growing Exporter and Fastest Growing Mature Business and was confirmed as one of the national Fast 50 companies.
CEO Brian Watson said the awards were due to a lot of hard work from a lot of people.
“We have been focusing on improving systems, concentrating effort in specific offshore markets and developing a solid strategy especially related to our finished goods. It takes time and teamwork and these awards help remind us that the work we are doing creates results.”
In the last three years Blis has grown revenue by over 100 percent each year, going from a turnover of $NZ1.3 million in FY2014 to a $NZ5.6 million in FY2016.
“Our guidance to the market for FY2017 is for a trading revenue in excess of $NZ8 million and to deliver a net profit before tax in excess of $0.7m.”

[simla]

It won those awards for the Dunedin and lower South Island sector, which makes it sound a bit limited. In fact, however, the main point is that Blis is one of the top 50 fastest growing companies in NZ by revenue.

"The Fast 50 index ranks the top 50 businesses in New Zealand according to their revenue growth over the past three years." http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84497627/new-zealands-deloitte-fast-50-regional-winners-announced

Well deserved after very much hard work. And obviously we hope it reappears in the awards every year for some time now!!

[neopoleII]

if you read the article and do a little home work,
you will see that not one of these companies lost millions upon millions of shareholder wealth over a decade.
nor are most, if not all of the other companies older than a few years.
if the truth be told....... in this award ceremony....... blt would not be a real winner.
but hey ....... whats wrong with a bit of statistics play and word smithing.
anything to get the share price up.
if memory serves me......... the board stated that things were in dia straits a few years ago........ and the share-price mysteriously crashed to point one of a cent
just as "new" share holders were moving in...........
talk about pumping!
not that i'm upset..... i would love to get back my one dollar per share.

[simla]

Blis's road has definitely been a slog. We'll find out how real it all is over the next couple of years. Starting with the November half year report.

[Leftfield]

i would love to get back my one dollar per share.

I hope you do too......!!

Investing is all about timing and riding the trends. BLT has a green arrow and a positive 147% in my modest portfolio..... needless to say, I also would be v pleased if it gets back to $1 per share! ;)

[patrick]

From comments we can assume they expect to meet Guidance figures.
Alls well.

[simla]

From comments we can assume they expect to meet Guidance figures.
Alls well.
Not entirely, if so. Growth is not a neat bar graph of yearly growth, but a continually compounding curve, changing real-time.

$8m was forecast nearly six months ago. Remember that the company confirmed it was already at that level in the July 28 update. It would be interesting if the revenue levels did not grow further in the remaining 8 months of the financial year after that? However, the award statement did not give an update but merely repeated the announced guidance, as I read it anyway.

I think the final revenue figure for the year is of some importance for judging the future. The current guidance is "in excess of $NZ8 million" and it will be interesting to see if that is what is repeated in the November report.

[patrick]

Thanks Simla,
Points taken, my thought was that, no change since July update, so all well.

[simla]

Okay, new thread was started, voted down seemingly. So I'm posting this to bump the old thread back into circulation.

[gmatt]

Okay, new thread was started, voted down seemingly. So I'm posting this to bump the old thread back into circulation.

Excellent!!

[fungus pudding]

Excellent!!

Double excellent.
I've deleted my posts from the new site.

[simla]

Share price already up 8% for the day on news of the old thread being restored ... :)

[Leftfield]

Share price already up 8% for the day on news of the old thread being restored ... :)

Nice one Simla!

[NeverQuestion]

Newbie Question

Given How many shares have been issued (Shares Issued 1,107,653,565)

would a share price of $1 ever be realistic for this stock without share consolidation?

[huxley]

Newbie Question

Given How many shares have been issued (Shares Issued 1,107,653,565)

would a share price of $1 ever be realistic for this stock without share consolidation?

Well that would require a $1.1 billion market cap..

[simla]

That would require one of the following:

1. A very large increase in revenue - which is possible given the market penetration already achieved in NZ but scaled out into larger markets, but taking quite some time presumably and requiring good luck too maybe.

2. Achieving a similar effect by launching other products already in the lab, which products are vaguely hinted at from time to time, but we have no knowledge of how imminent any are or what potential lies therein over what time scale or even if any exist.

3. Achieving the same effect by leveraging the Blis brand name to take in other products - which recent reports may or may not indicate could be part of the future plan, that the brand name itself becomes a valuable asset.

4. Widespread speculation in the BLT share price, as happens from time to time in NZ for no obvious cause that I've ever understood and certainly cannot be banked on.

$1 is not impossible, but no knowing if or when. Sheer speculation really. And don't forget that share prices don't always only go up!

Blis has achieved break even finally. But we are still none the wiser on where it goes next.

[Brain]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA


I have 400,000 of these so personally I hope Dale Kerrigan is very wrong.

[Leftfield]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA


I have 400,000 of these so personally I hope Dale Kerrigan is very wrong.

Nice one....tho' nothing wrong with dreaming. I see BLT is back to 5 again late today (on tiny volumes) so perhaps we also better go back to that new thread!?

BTW can't help thinking fluctuations like today seem to be the norm with BLT (and other penny dreadfuls). I would only get concerned with BIG volumes on a down day.

Most long term holders will be waiting the next update from the company with interest.

[simla]

BLT has been running a 10% spread between bid and offer for quite a long time now, so 5 cents vs 5.4 cents is nothing new.

(ps. We still love you, Patrick. Just a little mini-drama to show we're all human :) )

[Valuegrowth]

Dear Admin: I found two threads on BLT. How about merging those two threads?

Unlike those days there are two things that we should pay attention when we buy financial and tech related stocks. There will be great returns as well as great risks. We should see more volatility in these sectors in the coming decade. However, we should be able to get some mid and long term capital gain as well as long term shareholder value by identifying strong companies in advance. Strong tech and financial stocks should outperform weak tech and financial companies in the mid and long run.

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/mar...logies-Limited (https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/BLT.NZ--volatility--BLIS-Technologies-Limited)BLIS Technologies (New Zealand) Risk Analysis (https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/symbolDashboard/BLT.NZ)

Finally, New Zealand is capable of starting some strong tech companies. Investment in this area is weak when compare with some other countries.
As investors we should find growing tech companies having long term businesses. Some tech companies cannot generate businesses for the long run. Strong competitors will drive out weak competitors in the market.

[RGR367]

I believe this is just another proof http://www.branded-ingredients.com/news/stratum-nutrition_031016/

[patrick]

After ten days on my knees, with abstinence, may I return?

[simla]

Nice one, Patrick. What would we do without a little bit of fun and games every now and then?

By now the company obviously knows the first half revenue, and presumably profit. They haven't made any announcement, so it is not too unexpected, but still room for some surprise in the November report presumably. The implication is that "in excess of $8 million" is looking safe, so already we are very interested in what to expect next year. Compounding up from that level could point to some big figures ... or not. Still the waiting to do.

[pierre]

BLT remains on track!

4:30pm, 20 Oct 2016 | FORECASTHALF YEAR RESULT


Blis Technologies Limited announces their first half interim results (unaudited) with trading revenues of $3.84 million, EBITDA of $0.73 million and a net income before tax of $0.43 million. This represents 41% revenue growth over the corresponding period last year.
In spite of a strong New Zealand dollar, the company expects no change to FY2017 guidance of trading revenues in excess of $8 million and net income before tax in excess of $0.7 million.

[simla]

Brilliant. Their first genuinely reported profit ever, even if only half year so far and not yet audited. Further, I would take the EBITDA as the more meaningful figure given the unimportance (in my mind) of depreciation for Blis and the absence of debt, which is presumably on track for $1.5m annual.

Haven't changed their forward guidance, but have already exceeded the 0.7m profit track. Looking very nice so far. Also, Blis tends to sell better in winter (in my memory) and the northern hemisphere winter is still coming, so no knowing where that will lead.

Also they hint that the value of the NZD has impacted to their disadvantage, so good to get the result regardless of that.

[GR8DAY]

........just what the doctor ordered, CONSISTENCY and SUSTAINED GROWTH. Happy holder (and gatherer)

[simla]

........just what the doctor ordered, CONSISTENCY and SUSTAINED GROWTH. Happy holder (and gatherer)

On the nail, Gr8day. It really is wonderful that the company has gone for several years now with just continuous good news. That was a great announcement that we have waited many years for.

[simla]

Another point to note is that that was the first result completely under the new CEO . Let's be honest that changing CEO's is one of those risky moments in life!

Well, has he proved a safe pair of hands? Yes, big tick. Whew! Well done.

Will he now go on to be a major asset as well? Well, time will tell, but I'm starting to get some good feelings on that front.

So I'm thinking that maybe we should also be feeling good that not only have we had a safe switch of CEOs but that a very good choice has been made. Welcome aboard, mate! And the Board continues to sit unassumingly in the background deserving more notice than they are attracting. And all the hard working staff. Well done, one and all. Thank you.

[blissfool]

Brilliant. Their first genuinely reported profit ever, even if only half year so far and not yet audited. Further, I would take the EBITDA as the more meaningful figure given the unimportance (in my mind) of depreciation for Blis and the absence of debt, which is presumably on track for $1.5m annual.

Haven't changed their forward guidance, but have already exceeded the 0.7m profit track. Looking very nice so far. Also, Blis tends to sell better in winter (in my memory) and the northern hemisphere winter is still coming, so no knowing where that will lead.

Also they hint that the value of the NZD has impacted to their disadvantage, so good to get the result regardless of that.

Pleasing to see the consistency in Blis forecasts, after years of missing the mark. On 28/7/16 I posted that Blis will turnover $10M this financial year. Simla is correct the northern hemisphere winter is much stronger for sales, with 80% of their sales now off shore and if they can achieve a similar 41% lift in sales as they had in this period, then the end of year result could be very Blisfull. I will stick to my $10M prediction. But reserve the right to increase it, if they get China on board this year.

[GR8DAY]

.....couldnt agree more SIMLA, big ticks all round. Im picking the markets will look VERY favourably upon this.......consistancy is held in high regard by the bean counters and advisors as it obviously allows them to make the forecasts investors depend upon. Perhaps now more of them will start to sit up and take notice of this CONSISTANT growth story. Go you good thing.

[Leftfield]

Pleasing to see the consistency in Blis forecasts, after years of missing the mark. On 28/7/16 I posted that Blis will turnover $10M this financial year. Simla is correct the northern hemisphere winter is much stronger for sales, with 80% of their sales now off shore and if they can achieve a similar 41% lift in sales as they had in this period, then the end of year result could be very Blisfull. I will stick to my $10M prediction. But reserve the right to increase it, if they get China on board this year.

Great news this week, and good comments from Simla re new CEO and Northern Hemisphere sales. This holder hopes Blissfool is no fool and is happy to be sitting on a 130% gain to-date. Possibly more gains today. Onwards and upwards.

[emearg]

Want a summer job Simla? ;)

https://sexysummerjobs.com/whos-looking/biotechhealth-technologies/blis-technologies-ltd

[simla]

I'm probably overqualified :)

Good news though that they are hiring more staff, even if short term. "We have entered a phase of significant growth and development ". The marketing intern is obviously big extra investment in the website information. And the R&D guy, "Examples of projects include supporting: (a) development of a new skin probiotic strain, (b) profiling of early-phase potential probiotic candidates and (c) identifying mechanisms of killing action of existing probiotic strains. Each project has substantial commercial value for the company. " All definitely the actions of a company expecting to go somewhere. Thanks for finding that, Emearg.

Meanwhile the market continues to play it pretty cool over BLT. Well, the numbers will eventually catch up with that, we hope, but we may have to wait 6 months for any serious change in outlook unless the November report carries some actual news. Always interesting to hear the cash position obviously.

[kiwidollabill]

Yea a few new names around BLT. Their new CMO is ex ADI Instruments https://www.odt.co.nz/business/new-challenge-brings-otago-graduate-back-city, I think their previous Asia business manager has left however.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Interesting arcticle? a couple of days old.

http://www.findata.co.nz/News/47810486/Ready_for_a_Breakout_Stock_Update_on_BLIS_Technolo gies_Ltd_BLTNZ.htm

[emearg]

Woof

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jpan/19/1/19_8/_pdf

[emearg]

https://vimeo.com/177619423

[simla]

Interesting promo. A sign of the very intelligent market segmentation thinking going on at Blis, which seems likely to pay off. A hint of where things might be going beyond K12 and M18 maybe?

There is no doubt that Blis is now embracing marketing with a gusto, and this is the right stage of the company to do that. Nevertheless, I also hope they remember that the marketing approach is not always appropriate and that the half year report must contain lucid factual statements on a myriad of subjects that shareholders need to hear in order to evaluate their many millions of dollars of investment in this company (and to meet the company's legal listing requirements.) Marketing is a powerful tool, but more powerful when you know when to do it and when to not do it - like in legal reports. The marketing manager can do marketing all day long, but the senior company officers have a range of duties beyond that.

I particularly feel this because the marketing approach is definitely very interesting indeed and looks very appropriate to me for future growth. But it must be in combination with very level-headed realism too, or there eventually grows the risk of the hype forming a feedback loop (such as Obama can't even see these days what a blah washout of a president he has been because he believes his own marketing). Probiotics are an absolute mine field of legal obligations, as are the financial and reporting obligations of a listed company, and a powerful marketing approach will pay all the better results if the company is ensuring it has someone on board with a natural flair for clear factual statements in order to stay on top of legal compliance on all fronts.

I am reminded of Gertude Jekyll and Edwin Lutyens. He built very solid and well done houses and garden walls, and she added fantastic overlays of romantic gardens. The combination of very competent and grounded reality with the best of human imagination and intelligence in appreciating the unseen possibilities made them extremely famous and extremely admired. They swept England before them in a way that neither of them would have achieved alone. They were the yin and the yang combination, the combination of hard nosed reality with great imagination and insight.

Blis has clearly picked up a talented marketing ability. We know it has truly excellent science. I hope it is remembering to always have present a trusted and hard nosed legal advisor of equal talent to ensure that reality is always solidly rearing it's head in the company offices.

Having said all that, it is nevertheless very fascinating to watch the marketing vision being developed. I suspected early on that the intention seemed to be to see the Blis name as a major asset in its own right in addition to individual products, and this looks increasingly likely to me. That is a powerful dream and will be interesting to watch - all the more so if we see ongoing evidence that the company knows when marketing's "one or two key messages" is a good thing, but also when to stop the marketing and cut to detailed reality. Yin and yang. Both should be evident to shareholders in the company reports.

Thanks for the posts, Emearg.

[Yoda]

So right Simla ( and others ) thankyou for your insights .
SP seems to have slowed, but we wait with expectation !

[winner69]

Interesting promo. A sign of the very intelligent market segmentation thinking going on at Blis, which seems likely to pay off. A hint of where things might be going beyond K12 and M18 maybe?

There is no doubt that Blis is now embracing marketing with a gusto, and this is the right stage of the company to do that. Nevertheless, I also hope they remember that the marketing approach is not always appropriate and that the half year report must contain lucid factual statements on a myriad of subjects that shareholders need to hear in order to evaluate their many millions of dollars of investment in this company (and to meet the company's legal listing requirements.) Marketing is a powerful tool, but more powerful when you know when to do it and when to not do it - like in legal reports. The marketing manager can do marketing all day long, but the senior company officers have a range of duties beyond that.

I particularly feel this because the marketing approach is definitely very interesting indeed and looks very appropriate to me for future growth. But it must be in combination with very level-headed realism too, or there eventually grows the risk of the hype forming a feedback loop (such as Obama can't even see these days what a blah washout of a president he has been because he believes his own marketing). Probiotics are an absolute mine field of legal obligations, as are the financial and reporting obligations of a listed company, and a powerful marketing approach will pay all the better results if the company is ensuring it has someone on board with a natural flair for clear factual statements in order to stay on top of legal compliance on all fronts.

I am reminded of Gertude Jekyll and Edwin Lutyens. He built very solid and well done houses and garden walls, and she added fantastic overlays of romantic gardens. The combination of very competent and grounded reality with the best of human imagination and intelligence in appreciating the unseen possibilities made them extremely famous and extremely admired. They swept England before them in a way that neither of them would have achieved alone. They were the yin and the yang combination, the combination of hard nosed reality with great imagination and insight.

Blis has clearly picked up a talented marketing ability. We know it has truly excellent science. I hope it is remembering to always have present a trusted and hard nosed legal advisor of equal talent to ensure that reality is always solidly rearing it's head in the company offices.

Having said all that, it is nevertheless very fascinating to watch the marketing vision being developed. I suspected early on that the intention seemed to be to see the Blis name as a major asset in its own right in addition to individual products, and this looks increasingly likely to me. That is a powerful dream and will be interesting to watch - all the more so if we see ongoing evidence that the company knows when marketing's "one or two key messages" is a good thing, but also when to stop the marketing and cut to detailed reality. Yin and yang. Both should be evident to shareholders in the company reports.

Thanks for the posts, Emearg.

Jeez simla - your best post ever

Must study up on the Lutyens/Jekyll partnership - seem to be an interesting pair

[artemis]

Promisia (PIL) has been marketing Arthrem very heavily in NZ and have said that revenue well exceeds costs. Blis (BLT) has only recently started major marketing in NZ but it seems likely they will get a similar result to PIL in time.

In each case, the companies have international ambitions so are probably regarding NZ as a test bed.

[simla]

Thanks, Winner. I would put up some photos as examples, but gardens revert after just a few years, let alone a century, so existing photos are just shadows of what may or may not have been at the time. Suffice to say that any Midsomer Murder episode would be delighted with such a setting.

[jimbo]

Promisia (PIL) has been marketing Arthrem very heavily in NZ and have said that revenue well exceeds costs. Blis (BLT) has only recently started major marketing in NZ but it seems likely they will get a similar result to PIL in time.

In each case, the companies have international ambitions so are probably regarding NZ as a test bed.

That said, I'm vastly more confident in BLIS's product. The research is considerably more convincing. I've no doubt Promisia can make sales and possibly profits, but at this stage I'm steering clear until they have better evidence for the effectiveness of their product.

[Lola]

That said, I'm vastly more confident in BLIS's product. The research is considerably more convincing. I've no doubt Promisia can make sales and possibly profits, but at this stage I'm steering clear until they have better evidence for the effectiveness of their product.

I believe there is an detailed article in last weeks NZ Medical Journal about Promisia's Arthrem. That journal is considered by the profession as creditable.

[jimbo]

I believe there is an detailed article in last weeks NZ Medical Journal about Promisia's Arthrem. That journal is considered by the profession as creditable.

This could become a lengthy discussion that really belongs in a different thread, but I'm not casting doubt on the credibility of Promisia's published data. For me the content of those publications do not yet form a convincing body of evidence for their claims - to me they're somewhere in between "maybe" and "maybe not". But they're targeting the nutraceutical market so it doesn't really matter.

[simla]

Well, the November report will likely be out in the next 2 or 3 weeks. What are we hoping to hear?

For myself, I am hoping for an increase in operational news. I thought the last report was big on high level results to date but low on what is being done for future growth on the ground, which makes it very difficult for shareholders to look to the future. Just my view obviously.

Are partners ramping up investment in marketing, or are they being cautious? What feedback are they giving anyway? What is the dog research about? What is the story with the skin product work? What is happening in lower SE Asia where things kicked off a while ago? What is presently happening in each broad market area? What plans are there to extend into other countries in Europe and are there barriers? Is the revenue growth repeatable or did it just represent restocking in the US and as Europe opened? Detailed information to help us assess how solid the future looks.

It was suggested there would be more news from China about now, but things move slowly in China. In any case, market growth in Asian countries has been slow in early uptake (as I'm told is normal for any product in Asia) so I am not expecting spectacular results even if sales actually begin in China.

Meanwhile the share price languishes. I just read an analysis that said analyst predictions of company profits are positive for a year out but dwindle when it gets close to actual results. Is that what's happening with Blis presently, or is this just part of the broad weakening of the NZX presently?

[pierre]

Well, the November report will likely be out in the next 2 or 3 weeks. What are we hoping to hear?

For myself, I am hoping for an increase in operational news. I thought the last report was big on high level results to date but low on what is being done for future growth on the ground, which makes it very difficult for shareholders to look to the future. Just my view obviously.

Are partners ramping up investment in marketing, or are they being cautious? What feedback are they giving anyway? What is the dog research about? What is the story with the skin product work? What is happening in lower SE Asia where things kicked off a while ago? What is presently happening in each broad market area? What plans are there to extend into other countries in Europe and are there barriers? Is the revenue growth repeatable or did it just represent restocking in the US and as Europe opened? Detailed information to help us assess how solid the future looks.

It was suggested there would be more news from China about now, but things move slowly in China. In any case, market growth in Asian countries has been slow in early uptake (as I'm told is normal for any product in Asia) so I am not expecting spectacular results even if sales actually begin in China.

Meanwhile the share price languishes. I just read an analysis that said analyst predictions of company profits are positive for a year out but dwindle when it gets close to actual results. Is that what's happening with Blis presently, or is this just part of the broad weakening of the NZX presently?

I don't think we need to worry too much about what's happening at BLT, Simla. They've already told us what they expect the result for the full year to be so I think we can be confident we're not dealing with just a one-off revenue gain.

The new-ish MD is a marketing man focused primarily on increasing revenue from finished goods as he has identified that's where the margin opportunities lie. I am sure he will be addressing the sales opportunities in as many markets as he reasonably can within the confines of the company's available resources. It will be interesting to learn how much they are ramping up their marketing spend and it wont bother me at all if they plan to go higher.

While we can hope to get some detail on what's happened over the past six months, there are competitors in the market too, so it's likely they wont want to show their hand too much on their future strategies. China is clearly taking time to develop and it would be great if the trials were at or near the end. That market could be transformational once approvals are received and sales kick-off. Just need to make sure they are on board with the right distributor!

The SP is all over the place as are many others in the current uncertain market environment but I'm extremely optimistic for the future of BLT and am not concerned at all about recent fluctuations. In 2-3 year's time we could be looking at an SP that's easily double what it is today.

I'm hanging on for the ride - it's going to be fun and even more profitable than it has been to date.

[simla]

there are competitors in the market too
That's what I had thought was the explanation. But then the market analyst's report came out recently with a ton more detail, and the sky did not fall. I think it is about mindset. I am glad the management see a happy future, but I want to see that myself as an investor and have a legal right to that sort of knowledge. After all, no general would be happy with the simple news "we seem to be winning" but would insist on detail battle by battle so he could judge how well things were going one battle at a time. He would not want to rely on the judgement of one person, but would want detail to form his own opinion. That's called having skin in the game, which shareholders very much do have.

I should have included in my earlier list: how is the Blis-as-toothpaste-substitute product going down in Japan? An intriguing experiment. It is exactly I how I use it myself, but how are the customers reacting? How are the business partners reacting?

[simla]

Look, I am quite sure that the BLT management are doing a good job. But that is quite different from shareholders being able to judge it for themselves with actual detail.

Consider this Wall Street Journal article on Fonterra. http://www.wsj.com/articles/can-super-stretchy-cheese-boost-fonterra-as-milk-bet-sours-1477994197

"Over the next decade the co-op lost sight of that goal as it bet heavily on rising demand from China for a single commodity, milk powder, instead of diversifying into higher-value dairy products such as dietary supplements and medical foods." Well, I am sure that management there were doing their best. But my memories of those years are also of endless announcements from them that everything was going really well. Hey, maybe my memory is wrong.

But, nevertheless, "The dairy industry's value to the economy has nearly halved since milk prices boomed in the 2013/14 season, new DairyNZ figures reveal." says http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/316974/dairy-value-drop-in-'challenging'-year-revealed

BLT does indeed seem to be in a pretty good place. But the habit of telling shareholders the good news all the time can have real consequences over time. I really don't want BLT to develop that habit. Give us detail that we can judge for ourselves please.

[simla]

To state what should be obvious, but in case nobody realises, the NZX requires continuous disclosure of material information. This guidance note describes material information as "a reasonable person would expect, if it were generally available to the market, to have a material effect on the price of the issuer’s quoted securities" and then "A price movement of 10% or more in a quoted security will generally be treated by NZXR as evidence that information has had a material effect on the price of those quoted securities." https://nzx.com/files/static/cms-documents/Final%20Continuous%20Disclosure%20Guidance%20Note% 2019%20December%202014%20(1).pdf

Obviously there is also the exclusion of "a reasonable person would not expect the information to be disclosed" (and some sub clauses). But you know, I am a very reasonable person! And yet I have high expectations.

The NZX has these rules for the simple reason that shareholders very much have skin in the game. They are entitled to know enough to keep an eye on what is developing. And that's the reason I want to know more too. Answers to any of my questions in the last few posts would very likely affect the share price by at least 10% I would have thought, by way of example.

Look, I never ask much of this company. I trust them, year after year. But disclosure is very definitely in my list of unchangeable expectations.

[simla]

Having said all that, the number one thing we want to hear, of course, IS good news :)

[simla]

Share price currently down about 25% in the 10 weeks since the independent report came out, obviously in response to broad world unease at things generally. Since Blis is sitting in what appears to be a good position, that suggests that that report has not yet brought in any significant fund interest or any other general interest. It may be that my desire for substantive detailed market news is not unusual, and that the company would be responding to the market more generally by pursuing that path on a regular basis. I only want it as an investor, not out of any sense of criticism - I am very comfortable with where the company currently is. But real investing requires a capacity to judge the future outlook for oneself from the facts, not just from broad statements. Or, to put it another way, you can't just tell investors that things are good, you have to convince them of it. The funny thing is that the company used to give us heaps of detail but seldom any statement of how happy the company was, but now it is too much in the opposite direction (just my opinion obviously).

In any event, it is once again disappointing to see the market once again not really understanding the Blis value, and especially in contrast to some other companies not yet making a profit with good share prices.

[Rego55]

Tough day in the markets all round today. Nice timing - I bought back into Blis yesterday! Oh well, I didn't buy it for a one day shift and more excited about the next 12 - 24 months for this share.

[simla]

Confirmation that at least one major NZ investor likes solid substance in reports. Brian Gaynor this morning in the herald commented on 5 very successful NZ companies. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11742447

"One of the key features of these five companies is that they do not have a heavy reliance on public relations releases" The fact that he singled that out for comment suggests it rates highly in his selection criteria, I thought.

Also, "The secret of [their] success has been a clear and realistic long-term growth strategy that has been effectively implemented by its senior management team with strong board oversight." If an annual report convinces me of that, so I can see it can happen for myself, then I am happy.

Every report is a new adventure. I look forward to seeing the next one. My attitude to any report, any company, is always the same : more information please!

[blissfool]

Tough day in the markets all round today. Nice timing - I bought back into Blis yesterday! Oh well, I didn't buy it for a one day shift and more excited about the next 12 - 24 months for this share.

another tuff day on the market, thanks Hillary and Donald.
on a bright note on Newstalk ZB at 8:10 this morning Annette King thanked Steven Joyce for giving her Honey Blis tablets which fixed her cold.
A great endorsement from both sides of the house.

[mccollr]

another tuff day on the market, thanks Hillary and Donald.
on a bright note on Newstalk ZB at 8:10 this morning Annette King thanked Steven Joyce for giving her Honey Blis tablets which fixed her cold.
A great endorsement from both sides of the house.

That backs up what I was told last week. I bought some Blis at the Pharmacy near the Bee Hive and asked the pharmacist how Blis was selling. She shared that it was one of their top sellers and very popular with government and courts staff. She also added that Blis had taken a lot of time to train the staff about the product and it was paying off now with a steady increase in sales.

[Leftfield]

BLT followers just need to look at the PIL SP performance over the last 12 months to see what can happen to a small cap company when its products are 'discovered' by the market.

(Disc holding both)

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Interesting piece from the Beeb, no mention of Blis though
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-37961366
http://www.boots.ie/en/Pharmacy-Health/You-and-your-Pharmacies/Sore-Throat-Test-Treat-Service/

[GR8DAY]

Interesting piece from the Beeb, no mention of Blis though
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-37961366
http://www.boots.ie/en/Pharmacy-Health/You-and-your-Pharmacies/Sore-Throat-Test-Treat-Service/

.........are we supplying to the UK yet? This could be a worrying development (not for Blis tho) ie surely these pharmacists will automatically reach for the ABs (no not All Blacks) as they are right there on the shelf PLUS there's profits in them drugs!! On the other hand......maybe greater awareness to our natural alternative probiotic treatment aka BLIS will also come to the fore?? I hope our marketing team are aware of this new development in the UK and get straight onto this opportunity.........BIG MARKET PUSH PLEASE DIRECTORS.!! The world MUST be detoured away from Antibiotic over-use in general....or we are all gonners. I hear also some news filtering through that scientists have discovered probiotic bacteria in yoghurt that may halt alzheimers disease.........anyone else catch that???

[GR8DAY]

.......for those interested.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3924040/Why-having-probiotic-yoghurt-day-help-alleviate-sympto

[simla]

Yes, all the base level stuff is there to provide a solid future for Blis. The company can capture that with a solid and respectable report. Chapter and verse on what they are doing now, chapter and verse on what they hope to do over the next few years.

With the Trump effect, and now the earthquake, there is all the more reason to come out looking like a well oiled "boring" safe company, by providing solid chapter and verse details. Of course it depends on whether the company cares about the share price, which they don't have to unless they want fresh capital. But consider that PEB is at 55 cents, with last full year loss of $15m, XRO at $17.57, with last half year loss of $43m ... and BLT at just 4.3 cents, with a projected profit for year of about $1m. Personally I think the company could do with more market credibility than that, and the annual reports are where you get it.

However, the company gets to choose what is appropriate and I look forward to seeing our next report.

[GR8DAY]

........totally agree SIMLA re:Share Price. Here we are in profit PLUS only further growth ahead of us PLUS a "World First" "World Unique" set of products in Bio Technology BUT with a Share Price lingering in the low 4c to give an under-valued Market Cap which is a quarter to a fifth that of Pacific Edge (for example) ........yet both companies working in the same field of health biotech etc, both hailing from Dunedin NZ and YET Pacific Edge (which has huge competition unlike BLIS) is a loss maker without the world prospects that BLIS has (in my opinion)


Maybe it's time for the directors to do a national roadshow to get as many Financial Advisors on board as possible........Im sure new investors will be handsomely rewarded over the medium term. In fact my call on the SP potential is 20:20:20 (20c by this time 2020) ?? ( BUT actually based just on the Pacific Edge price it should be 20c now....IMHO) Wake up Mr. Market.

[jimbo]

........totally agree SIMLA re:Share Price. Here we are in profit PLUS only further growth ahead of us PLUS a "World First" "World Unique" set of products in Bio Technology ....


To be clear, I am cheering for BLT and hoping they are rewarded for their pioneering work in oral probiotics, but they are not unique. Consider the ProBiora3 product made and sold in the US (https://evoraoralprobiotics.com/). Their research track record is nowhere near as impressive as BLIS's and it's not clear whether their bacterial strains produce similarly beneficial bacteriocin-like inhibitory substances or whether their product relies simply on competition and population dynamics, but at this stage what matters is whether you can become the best-recognised brand and sell more than your rival.

That said, things still look very promising for BLIS. They have the longer track record and their proprietary K12 and M18 strains appear to be preferred ingredients for other probiotic manufacturers that blend their own mixtures (e.g. Hyperbiotics ProDental (https://www.amazon.com/PRO-Dental-Probiotics-Probiotic-Including-salivarius/dp/B00ONB9JIG/ref=sr_1_4?m=A2SCMGMB9GAZTI&s=merchant-items&ie=UTF8&qid=1479199884&sr=1-4) and NowFoods OralBiotic (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B003P7YVTQ/ref=s9_dcacsd_dcoop_bw_c_x_1_w)). They're in a good position if the concept of oral probiotics takes off.

[patrick]

jumbo,
Today's buyers share your view.
Increased volume should see increased price?

[Yoda]

The east cape study on rheumatic fever and Blis 12 as being re- evaluated again a few years on with positive results i hear after talking to one of rhe docs, and paper will be published soon so one to watch out for.

[artemis]

Should Blis and Promisia get together? OK, left field, but may be a chance for two innovatinve NZ biotechs to do a JV. The extract below is from today's Fortune Health newsletter. Psoriasis can be linked to strep throat. Maybe a fruitful natural preventative combining Blis and Arthrem? Sounds like a big potential market.

"Three biopharma giants jockey for market share in psoriatic arthritis with new data. The inflammatory drug space for conditions like plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondilitis, and others is among the most lucrative in the world, with flagship products such as AbbVie's Humira (the best-selling drug globally) and Johnson & Johnson's Remicade making up some of big pharma's most successful drugs by sales. It isn't surprising that these therapies are so popular: psoriasis is an extremely common condition in the U.S. and abroad. But Novartis, Celgene, and Pfizer are now duking it in the psoriatic arthritis space, unveiling positive clinical trial data for inflammatory drugs Cosentyx, Otezla, and Xeljanz (respectively) during the American College of Rheumatology's (ACR) annual meeting. The play for psoriatic arthritis indications makes sense because it would add some depth to the companies' market penetration in the psoriasis-related disease space, which already has plenty of available options. "

[jimbo]

Should Blis and Promisia get together? OK, left field, but may be a chance for two innovatinve NZ biotechs to do a JV. The extract below is from today's Fortune Health newsletter. Psoriasis can be linked to strep throat. Maybe a fruitful natural preventative combining Blis and Arthrem? Sounds like a big potential market.
... "

I'd vote a strong no on that one, and certainly not only because of the antimicrobial properties of Artemisia annua extract.

[emearg]

Should Blis and Promisia get together? OK, left field, but may be a chance for two innovatinve NZ biotechs to do a JV. The extract below is from today's Fortune Health newsletter. Psoriasis can be linked to strep throat. Maybe a fruitful natural preventative combining Blis and Arthrem? Sounds like a big potential market. ...

Absolutely not :)

[simla]

Blis half year report out. Continued upbeat and pleasing to see the company in that position.

Cash flow: made 690k in six months from operations, increasing cash overall from 1.2m to 1.7m. That's sounds comfortable. Working capital $2.5m

Sales pretty good across all markets. That sounds comfortable. Particularly pleasing to see nearly $1m in Asia. That has been some time coming.

Profit of 428k, but add back depreciation etc and that was about 700k, $1.5m for the year. That's pretty good to me.

Clean factual statements on every front. I like that. But only 1000 words of commentary, or 2.5 pages, compared to 19 pages that KPG just brought out. The sort of details it would have been nice to hear were what some of those things were: "New finished goods initiatives in Japan and Europe" "Co-branding initiative in Japan" "new launch activity in Europe" "Revised agreement in NZ". Again no mention of what they are looking towards next year though 2017 is just weeks away.

Two more key staff appointments.

A good solid position for the company to be in. A cleanly written report. But nevertheless personally I'm no wiser what the company hopes for in future.

Nevertheless, I appreciate these things are a lot of work to produce and I am grateful for that effort. We'll see what the market makes of that.

[simla]

That sort of result is good and the result of very much hard work by many people. Thank you to all who have worked so hard. Well done in achieving a position for the company that looks like a pretty solid base for the future.

Though I am none the wiser as to what he company hopes for the future, yet I think the ongoing message over a couple of reports now is that the company is concentrating on doing a very good job of its current position. I would therefore guess that the idea is to take an existing business model and multiply it using good marketing techniques. The company is however so far giving no indication of what sort of multiplier effect that might produce or over what time scale. Likewise, if the idea is to build the Blis brand up to be an asset in its own right then there again is no discussion of it.

The actual words in the report however were, "The company continues to invest in initiatives to open new markets and increase brand awareness as it steadily moves toward providing a BLIS branded consumer product range in concert with its international partners. This will provide the company with longer term value and a higher share of profit margins as we get closer to our ultimate customer."

My guess is that that is a pretty important sentence. However, it feels like the company is slowly coalescing its thoughts this way and we will find out what that means in more detail over time.

[Leftfield]

Agree with you Simla. BLT seems to be on a sound base, and the transition from old management to new seems to be going well. I hope that with the appointment of new key staff we will see a bit more planning and reporting on an extended range of KPI's including sales by region, sales by categories, new research, new product opportunities etc.

Looks v promising and happy to continue holding.

[GR8DAY]

........oh gosh looking like just another year of exceptional revenue growth. This is becoming all too common now LOL.........any other listed company achieving results like this?....year after year?? $10m annual t/o now on my horizon of expectations.....this year/next year?? Great all round consistency. Money in the bank too......so no call on shareholders. Wake up Mr Market.

[simla]

Wake up Mr Market.

I'm inclining to think the market feels the same way as I do. That is the third report that I have read that has left me feeling perplexed. Not worried, just perplexed.

You'll gather from my recent string of posts on the reports that I am really struggling to understand what is going on here. But after this third report leaving me feeling the same way, I am developing a working theory.

I think that Barry's later reports were habitually confident because the evidence was writ large that the strategy was working. But then came the time for the company to do a big pivot towards being marketing led, changing from building the foundations to building the house on top of the foundations.

But how to make that change? The company could have gone on to establish profit under the old model and thus gain market credence before the pivot. But that would have meant several years delay in gaining the advantage of the pivot. It also would have required Barry to hang around for even more years and frankly I think he was very generous indeed to give us so many years in such an arduous role.

But then that meant that, with hindsight, the current situation was inevitable. Just when the company finally had a good story to tell it had to embark on a totally new strategy. For a starter, it will take time to refine that strategy into a clear concrete plan. But more importantly they cannot possibly yet have the evidence of definite results confirming that the new strategy is definitely working. Plans are one thing, results are another. And visible confidence can only really attach to seeing the results, I guess.

So my working theory now is that I am perplexed because the company is not yet confident in where the new future lies, and that is coming through in the reports. As I say, with hindsight this is probably inevitable given the huge pivot going on.

But if this theory is correct then the market is hesitant for the same reason that I am, that the company itself is hesitant. For we shareholders this is obviously irritating. 10 years of waiting and finally victory looked to be here. Instead it will be another couple of years in uncharted waters as the company pivots in a huge way. Only then will we be hearing the confident talk of the future that is currently absent. Probably only then will the market really buy into this story?

All just my theory, of course.

[simla]

Having arrived at that idea, the question is indeed what response Mr Market could be making here. It is a risk/reward balance obviously.

We shareholders have already stood by the company during the "totally impossible" phase. The enormity of what has been achieved here is well demonstrated over at Wynyard, which is demonstrating just how very hard it is to create an entirely new market with an entirely new product, and all while remaining solvent and with ongoing shareholder support vital. Barry indeed achieved a miracle and the Board is totally to be congratulated for standing the distance and hats off to our Chairman for being there throughout. And hats off to we shareholders who stood the distance too.

But now the risk reward balance is at quite a different point. Profit is already on the table, and the main question would appear to be what growth lies ahead. Well, I dare say Blis are hoping to be in KPG's position in some years, with very large revenues and able to spend time on 19 pages of commentary and graphs. But of course KPG is huge and the compound growth in net asset backing over the last 5 years has been just 5.6% - admirable for a large firm, but obviously we are hoping that Blis is in a position now to be much more agile than that. Trade offs - size versus growth?

So, yes, Gr8day. Mr Market probably could be looking a bit closer than they appear to be doing. But who knows what the answer is. Presently, and just for myself, I still am not sure how to look at all this. Just my views obviously. Others will disagree.

[simla]

Incidentally, I take it for granted that we are seeing the company make a huge pivot into being marketing led. But they have not specifically stated that, I believe. Is that what others see as happening here?

[GR8DAY]

Hi SIMLA........maybe your over-thinking, over-analyzing it all? (with the greatest of respect) Personally, (without going too deep into it) Im of the opinion that things are ticking along (now) not just well,,,,,but exceptionally well. Im totally happy with the upward swing in all things graphed and we must remember (obviously) that the directors must have our interests at the top along with the company in general ...surely that goes without saying? So in that regard my faith and support for our directors and future plans remains the same and Im really feeling more positive now than ever before as continued growth is reported. They ARE delivering..........the results speak for themselves and that says a lot I believe.....I just wish the market would also acknowledge this fact.

[Leftfield]

My thoughts are that the company has made big steps in the last 12 months e.g.,

- sorted supply and quality issues
- transitioned new management into key roles
- rebranded and simplified the product line
- All while keeping a keen eye on the bottom line, this is one very lean mean company.

I suspect BLT's predictions will remain cautious until further key appointments are made and its confidence in them and its product line increases.

In the meantime we should be very thankful that the company is in profit and able to grow at considerable pace. Long may this continue.

[simla]

They ARE delivering.

Oh, totally agree. My concerns are only about reading the future. But I think that is probably where the market is too. Anyone who buys into BLT now is only asking what the future payoff will be, not what the current payoff is.

Defining marketing led : A market-led marketing strategy asks, "What do consumers want?" Or, more entertainingly, "Marketing-led companies focus on the key initiatives that will sustain growth in the new, buyer-driven environment, whereas a sales-driven approach is what is often referred to as the "bag 'em and tag 'em" approach."

And, "a shift to a marketing-led organization goes beyond internal branding. There must be commitment to investing in the company and its infrastructure in an effort to better serve its customers—create a world-class customer experience and reputation." http://www.marketingprofs.com/6/mucci2.asp

Well, this report just said, "This is based on our increased understanding of the customer value proposition and supported by credible clinical data", for example. And they have moved away from ingredients towards finished products, and now towards co-branding, and picking up on the attractiveness of the HoneyBlis. And the last report said, "Our value proposition to our customers and consumers is that we understand their needs so that we can deliver a real health benefit." And, "Mr Watson has strong sales and marketing credentials, and experience which are also important for the company now." And "Our branded finished goods strategy has a focus on developing clear value propositions to ensure effective positioning of BLISTM probiotics across a mix of channels globally."

My theory is trying to understand why the company is in such as a strong position, as you point out, and yet the reports are not oozing confidence. My theory is that it is because the company is making a major transition, from building logisitics and foundations to now having a market led approach to build on that, and that the confidence may not ooze until the payoff for that is becoming clear. I can certainly understand you saying that it is over-thinking, but - like you - I am trying to understand why the company is doing so well relative to its share price. My current theory is that this big pivot is making the company appear confusing.

Hence my question, does anyone else see this major transition as dominating the company presently?

[simla]

Just to remind what I haven't said for some time. I come here to discuss publicly available information to form a better understanding of what we are seeing.

[Balance]

They ARE delivering..........the results speak for themselves and that says a lot I believe.....I just wish the market would also acknowledge this fact also.

Time will take care of the sp if BLT keeps delivering.

The market has acknowledged BLT's turnaround - the sp has more than doubled and tripled in the last 2 years, and it has a market cap now of $52m.

Market will want to see a $1m plus NPAT (without a capital raise) before the next sp move upwards is my pick of what happens next.

[simla]

You guys are being way more pragmatic than me, and I'm sure your wisdom and experience makes much sense.

Me, I'm looking at the KPG report and seeing these sorts of things. " Kiwi Property has delivered another robust performance for the six months to 30 September 2016. We have grown revenue and increased dividends, while continuing to build a stronger underlying portfolio of property assets. We have also continued to deliver on our long-term investment return goal, with total returns to shareholders (since inception 23 years ago) running at 10.1% per annum." "We’ve had a very positive six-month period"

And I'm puzzled why I'm not seeing that sort of thing in the BLT report, who appear to be in a very happy position. The word confident is not in the report. Neither is positive. Nor pleased.

But I'm now inclining to think my theory makes some sense (to me at least!)

So I am happy to resume my long running position of "optimistic". Either way, it is delightful to see the company report it's first profit.

[GR8DAY]

.......point taken SIMLA but I dont think we're too far off from such words appearing in the reports. Maybe it's just a case of our new CEO "bedding-in" before he gets as excited as we are........after all we've all been around longer to see what's really happening here. The Share Price is doing OK I guess (as BALANCE points out) BUT the potential of this company has no bounds in my opinion.........just a matter of time.

[Leftfield]

I've now had time to look a bit further into todays report. Some key measurable much improved IMHO;

- Cash on hand $1,750k v $1,234k. Up 42%
- Accounts receivable $791k v $1,435k. Down 55%
- Inventory $370k v $519k. Down 30%
- Net Surplus $428 k v - $405k up $833k

If BLT keeps going like this, Balances major re-evaluation goal of $1mill NPAT could be achievable in 6 to 12 months. DYOR.

[jonu]

I've now had time to look a bit further into todays report. Some key measurable much improved IMHO;

- Cash on hand $1,750k v $1,234k. Up 42%
- Accounts receivable $791k v $1,435k. Down 55%
- Inventory $370k v $519k. Down 30%
- Net Surplus $428 k v - $405k up $833k

If BLT keeps going like this, Balances major re-evaluation goal of $1mill NPAT could be achievable in 6 to 12 months. DYOR.

Which on a P/E ratio of 20 makes it a 20 million dollar company. M/Cap today is 51 million (@ 4.6). Should it be more like 2 cents instead of 4.6?

[Leftfield]

Which on a P/E ratio of 20 makes it a 20 million dollar company. M/Cap today is 51 million (@ 4.6). Should it be more like 2 cents instead of 4.6?

Far be it for me to defend the SP of BLT, however it would seem, BLT's SP at 4.6 is the ultimate result of a measuring tool called 'the market'.

If we only follow P/E ratios, how do we explain the SP of companies such as XRO and PAY etc ?

For a more detailed evaluation of BLT I refer you to: http://blis.co.nz/media/wysiwyg/pdfs/Blis_Technologies_Ltd-_Andrew_Mortimer_Report.pdf

Disc; holder and happy.

[GR8DAY]

Which on a P/E ratio of 20 makes it a 20 million dollar company. M/Cap today is 51 million (@ 4.6). Should it be more like 2 cents instead of 4.6?


..............and further to LEFTFIELDS comments JONU. HOW'S THIS FOR A MARKET VALUATION COMPARISON THEN:
Pacific Edge just announced their 6monthly (Blis did the same last week) One could argue both companies working in a similar sector (BioTECH?).........BOTH hail from Dunedin University NZ.........BOTH reported revenue of $3.8m..........BOTH MADE REVENUE GAINS OF 41/42%.........PEB reports yet another loss of $11.3m.........BLIS reports a growing PROFIT of $428k with a forecast full year of $700k (im picking conservative)

YET..........(drum roll please) PACIFIC EDGE (the company) currently has a Market Cap almost 4 times that of BLIS!!

........which naturally begs the question......is PEB way over-valued OR is BLIS way under-valued. Well given the fact that once-upon-a-time PEB was valued by the market at around a whopping $600m I think we can pretty much take it that BLIS is WAY-UNDERVALUED by comparison. In fact I would add, I personally believe that 2c you came up with JONU needs a zero behind it ( ie 20c)..........if not now maybe in a year or two. Look for the trend Mr Market, it's right their in front of you..........wakey wakey!! (DYOR)

[Leftfield]

..............and further to LEFTFIELDS comments JONU. HOW'S THIS FOR A MARKET VALUATION COMPARISON THEN:
Pacific Edge just announced their 6monthly (Blis did the same last week) One could argue both companies working in a similar sector (BioTECH?).........BOTH hail from Dunedin University NZ.........BOTH reported revenue of $3.8m..........BOTH MADE REVENUE GAINS OF 41/42%.........PEB reports yet another loss of $11.3m.........BLIS reports a growing PROFIT of $428k with a forecast full year of $700k (im picking conservative)

YET..........(drum roll please) PACIFIC EDGE (the company) currently has a Market Cap almost 4 times that of BLIS!!

........which naturally begs the question......is PEB way over-valued OR is BLIS way under-valued. Well given the fact that once-upon-a-time PEB was valued by the market at around a whopping $600m I think we can pretty much take it that BLIS is WAY-UNDERVALUED by comparison. In fact I would add, I personally believe that 2c you came up with JONU needs a zero behind it..........if not now maybe in a year or two. Look for the trend Mr Market, it's right their in front of you..........wakey wakey!! (DYOR)

Well said GR8Day. This should be posted on the PEB thread.

[RGR367]

.............a zero behind it ( ie 20c)..........if not now maybe in a year or two. Look for the trend Mr Market, it's right their in front of you..........wakey wakey!! (DYOR)

As I still have 2 more years on my time horizon for this one, shall we all just say for now that it will get there on due time. And it won't just be a gr8day but a Great Year :t_up:

[Apathy]

..............and further to LEFTFIELDS comments JONU. HOW'S THIS FOR A MARKET VALUATION COMPARISON THEN:
Pacific Edge just announced their 6monthly (Blis did the same last week) One could argue both companies working in a similar sector (BioTECH?).........BOTH hail from Dunedin University NZ.........BOTH reported revenue of $3.8m..........BOTH MADE REVENUE GAINS OF 41/42%.........PEB reports yet another loss of $11.3m.........BLIS reports a growing PROFIT of $428k with a forecast full year of $700k (im picking conservative)

YET..........(drum roll please) PACIFIC EDGE (the company) currently has a Market Cap almost 4 times that of BLIS!!

........which naturally begs the question......is PEB way over-valued OR is BLIS way under-valued. Well given the fact that once-upon-a-time PEB was valued by the market at around a whopping $600m I think we can pretty much take it that BLIS is WAY-UNDERVALUED by comparison. In fact I would add, I personally believe that 2c you came up with JONU needs a zero behind it ( ie 20c)..........if not now maybe in a year or two. Look for the trend Mr Market, it's right their in front of you..........wakey wakey!! (DYOR)

Genius - lets all use PEB for PE comparisons - wahoo - entire market is massively undervalued...........

[GR8DAY]

Genius - lets all use PEB for PE comparisons - wahoo - entire market is massively undervalued...........

.....LOL Apathy. I hope you see my point though ie there's possibly no two other listed companies with such a close correlation to make a comparison??

[Apathy]

.....LOL Apathy. I hope you see my point though ie there's possibly no two other listed companies with such a close correlation to make a comparison??


I do - very similar actually........ But it really is a bit like winning the tallest dwarf prize.

Neither has anything to do with any valuation model - you have the combination of those who have long lost interest and don't want to face up to losses combined with the penny dreadful traders.

At the end of the day - someone is going to want a dividend or a growth path that will allow them to liquidate % stake in lieu of dividend.

BLT are cash positive on the basis of reduced inventory and receivables - that isn't the same as cash from profit and the fact is if they are going to get the growth they need to generate profits they will need to hit up shareholders again (working capital alone) and that means further dilution. I am not suggesting it is going to halve in price - people will hang in if they don't have to reach into pockets - but its a long way from justifying current price.

Disclaimer - really like their products..

[Snow Leopard]

...BLT are cash positive on the basis of reduced inventory and receivables...

I thought I had better check that as it was not what I remembered and indeed:

a/ Inventory increased by $42K;
b/ the extra cash from reduced receivables was completely offset by the reduction in payables.

There was a net cash inflow of $538K for the period.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[patrick]

Apathy,
And some who have been in a long time, know and use the product and
Just waiting for others to catch up.
Good Luck.

[emearg]

To be clear, I am cheering for BLT and hoping they are rewarded for their pioneering work in oral probiotics, but they are not unique. Consider the ProBiora3 product made and sold in the US (https://evoraoralprobiotics.com/). Their research track record is nowhere near as impressive as BLIS's and it's not clear whether their bacterial strains produce similarly beneficial bacteriocin-like inhibitory substances or whether their product relies simply on competition and population dynamics, but at this stage what matters is whether you can become the best-recognised brand and sell more than your rival.

That said, things still look very promising for BLIS. They have the longer track record and their proprietary K12 and M18 strains appear to be preferred ingredients for other probiotic manufacturers that blend their own mixtures (e.g. Hyperbiotics ProDental (https://www.amazon.com/PRO-Dental-Probiotics-Probiotic-Including-salivarius/dp/B00ONB9JIG/ref=sr_1_4?m=A2SCMGMB9GAZTI&s=merchant-items&ie=UTF8&qid=1479199884&sr=1-4) and NowFoods OralBiotic (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B003P7YVTQ/ref=s9_dcacsd_dcoop_bw_c_x_1_w)). They're in a good position if the concept of oral probiotics takes off.

Plenty of room for plenty of players in this market IMHO

Go look at amazon and do a search on EvoraPlus and you will note one of the products you mention that contains Blis bugs has 800 odd reviews versus 100 for the Evora product. Great to see them both selling :)

[emearg]

Getting Blis bugs into food products is where the significant growth will come from. We wait with baited breath for this to occur...

[emearg]

And to be fair we have been waiting for a long time. Several years.

But anyone who has been following this company for a long time will know that progress is measured in (many)years rather than months.

Patient investors have been rewarded, and hopefully will continue to be rewarded. Short term traders or impatient types will find themselves disappointed.

[jimbo]

Plenty of room for plenty of players in this market IMHO

Go look at amazon and do a search on EvoraPlus and you will note one of the products you mention that contains Blis bugs has 800 odd reviews versus 100 for the Evora product. Great to see them both selling :)


Good spotting

[fungus pudding]

Patient investors have been rewarded, .....

???????? ...apart from the ones who have lost a fortune.

[emearg]

???????? ...apart from the ones who have lost a fortune.

Yes apart from them! When I wrote my comment I was thinking of the investors who have either bought in too early and averaged down, or bought in the last several years. Those who bought at the IPO or for many years after that and never averaged down will have lost the bulk of their initial investment.

[fungus pudding]

Yes apart from them! When I wrote my comment I was thinking of the investors who have either bought in too early and averaged down, or bought in the last several years. Those who bought at the IPO or for many years after that and never averaged down will have lost the bulk of their initial investment.

'Averaging down' does not recover a loss, although it possibly makes the poor mug feel better.

[JP]

'Averaging down' does not recover a loss, although it possibly makes the poor mug feel better.

Surely once the stock price is greater than the average you paid you are back in the black and if it keeps rising you start to make profits. The percentage profit will depend on how far it rises and the no of years you have held.

[fungus pudding]

Surely once the stock price is greater than the average you paid you are back in the black and if it keeps rising you start to make profits. The percentage profit will depend on how far it rises and the no of years you have held.

You may be in the black, but you would still be better off if you had never purchased the expensive lot. Averaging down and thinking you've done alright is the same as blowing a heap on some investment and then averaging it with your lotto win.

[patrick]

Patient investors!
But good return for those who risked $15k in the issue at 1cents a share when the sp
was above that figure. Not that long ago.

[patrick]

Off the radar?

[Traderwannabe]

Will any good news come out soon? Trying to be patient ......

[gmatt]

........ and still patiently waiting for good news!!

[fungus pudding]

........ and still patiently waiting for good news!!

Here it goes. The shares are cheaper to buy. :D

[gmatt]

Here it goes. The shares are cheaper to buy. :D

haha ..... already have more than I should have

[pierre]

........ and still patiently waiting for good news!!

Last year there was an update on forecast revenues for FY16 at the end of February. I wouldn't expect any news this February unless there is a material change to the FY17 outcome predicted in the half-year report on 21 November.

[simla]

The main news we get presently seems to be financial. If so, then we might see a year end revenue announcement late March and a guidance update a couple of months later?

In the absence of other news then, and since the total silence gets boring, here's a couple of items on the net from Japan. Either of these might be the "Co-Branding initiative in Japan" mentioned in the last half report?

http://thumbnail.image.rakuten.co.jp/@0_mall/wan-o-wan/cabinet/dogfood/blismix/blismix_s1k.jpg?_ex=256x256 https://translate.google.co.nz/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kmt-dogfood.com%2Fblismix%2Fitem02.html&edit-text=&act=url The page mentions "Streptococcus salivarius" and "K12" on the same page, but not actually in one phrase, but it looks like Blis to me (but do you agree that it is?) An actual dog food containing Blis then? That general market could have a good payoff potentially long term, if it attracts an audience, but probably early days so far. Appeared on the net in December.

https://news.biglobe.ne.jp/economy/0930/4972092604/d19240-2-422211-0.jpg https://translate.google.co.nz/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.biglobe.ne.jp%2Feconomy%2F093 0%2Fprt_160930_4972092604.html&edit-text=&act=url Toothpaste. "Since Brian for children has started selling on August 19, 2015, the number of sales exceeded 240,000 packages, the degree of customer satisfaction was 97.5%
Many customers are continuously using it." "Brian for adults has been developed and released." Kids version appeared on the net about 2015, this version in October. It says toothpaste, but the earlier version appeared to be toothpaste powder, so not sure which this is.

So ... dog food, toothpaste. Well, if either or both of those appealed to consumers (if) then that would open doors. Certainly big markets and sensible uses of the product. And they are there now in a big market (Japan's pop 126m) where Blis has been gaining a foothold, so a reasonable test market too. Especially since Japanese are reputed to care about both pets and hygiene.

[kerryo]

Nice one simla, thanks.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Simla. The Japanese toothpaste initiative sounds v impressive despite its less impressive name of Brian.

"Since Brian for children has started selling on August 19, 2015, the number of sales exceeded 240,000 packages, the degree of customer satisfaction was 97.5%
Many customers are continuously using it."

Blis in a toothpaste makes a lot of sense..... much more so than in the ill fated ice-cream!

Looking forward to the next trading update with interest.

[Leon]

All is very quiet regarding announcements from the company. I presume the present predicted profit is still on track with just over 2 months left of the financial year. Then there will be the next financial year where they need to indicate projected turnover and profitability. The next 3 months will be very interesting! The share price will react accordingly!:D

[simla]

I think we have to consider the possibility that the lack of news is real and represents a lack of momentum presently. After all, the company did say it was pausing to regroup. I can't see any way of forming any clear opinion on the outlook from current news and have changed my own position from "optimistic" to "simply don't know". The company said it was "upbeat" last year https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/282826 and "convinced growth will be the feature of this business for many years to come" https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237641.pdf, but that doesn't mean things are rocketing along presently.

I remain cautious. Hopeful, but cautious.

[patrick]

I think we have to consider the possibility that the lack of news is real and represents a lack of momentum presently. After all, the company did say it was pausing to regroup. I can't see any way of forming any clear opinion on the outlook from current news and have changed my own position from "optimistic" to "simply don't know". The company said it was "upbeat" last year https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/282826 and "convinced growth will be the feature of this business for many years to come" https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237641.pdf, but that doesn't mean things are rocketing along presently.

I remain cautious. Hopeful, but cautious.

Can we take some comfort from the Reporting Obligations?
No news so alls well.

[hummerh40]

BLT
23/01/2017 09:27
GENERAL
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0927 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited

GENERAL: BLT: New European study

MEDIA RELEASE
January 23, 2017.

New European study shows benefits of Kiwi-developed probiotic in young
children

A recent study by Italy's pre-eminent researcher into probiotics has
concluded that a Kiwi-developed oral probiotic, BLIS K12 TM, is associated
with a significant reduction in ear and throat infections (acute otitis media
and streptococcal pharyngitis) among children attending their first year of
kindergarten.

BLIS K12 is the world's first probiotic for the mouth and throat.

This news comes as New Zealand children are about to head back to school and
pre-school where they will be exposed to a range of pathogens that can cause
ear and throat infections.

The study, published in the European Review for Medical and Pharmacological
Science by a team from Velleja Research led by Dr Francesco Di Pierro, ran a
randomized trial among 222 enrolled children attending the first year of
kindergarten. The treated group of 111 children received a daily oral dose
of BLIS K12 for six months. A control group (that received no BLIS K12) was
also monitored.

During the six-month trial the incidence of throat and ear infections
(streptococcal pharyngo-tonsillitis and acute otitis media) was approximately
16 percent and 44 percent respectively in the treated group. This compared to
the higher incidence of 48 percent and 80 percent respectively in the control
group.

During a three-month follow-up period in a subgroup of children, the
corresponding rates of infection were 15 percent and 12 percent in the
treated group and 26 percent and 36 percent in the controls, suggesting a
potential prolonged benefit.

The authors reported that the results appear to demonstrate for the first
time that the preventive administration of BLIS K12 could generate positive
health outcomes even in very young children who have not been pre-selected as
prone to recurrent streptococcal infection or acute otitis media.

BLIS K12 or Streptococcus salivarius K12 is an advanced probiotic strain
hostile to the growth of Streptococcus pyogenes, the most important bacterial
cause of throat infections in humans.

"BLIS K12 populates the mouth and throat with a beneficial strain of
Streptococcus salivarius which crowds out the bad bacteria. Think of it like
a forcefield in your throat that stops the bad bacteria invading. It is
effective in the prevention of Streptococcal throat infections which, if left
untreated, can lead to more serious health conditions," explains BLIS
Technologies chief technology officer, Dr John Hale.

BLIS K12 is present in ThroatGuard Lozenges and ToddlerProtect powder which
are available over-the-counter from pharmacies and online at www.blis.co.nz (http://www.blis.co.nz/)
ends

About BLIS Technologies

Blis Technologies Limited was formed to commercialise advanced probiotic
strains that work outside the gut. Professor John Tagg of the Microbiology
department at the University of Otago gathered and extensively catalogued a
collection of more than 2000 of these bacteria over a period of more than 30
years. Blis Technologies acquired the rights to this unique collection of
bacteria from the University of Otago in New Zealand and in July 2001, the
company was listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange. In the time since its
listing on the New Zealand Stock Exchange, the company has developed consumer
products for throat health, halitosis (bad breath), immune support and teeth
and gum health.

Media contact:
Brenda Saunders, Trio Communications, Auckland. Phone: 021 777 171.
End CA:00295836 For:BLT Type:GENERAL Time:2017-01-23 09:27:19

[winner69]

Good that Blis noted that you guys were getting a bit depressed ......so made an announcement to cheer you up and give you further hope.

Good on em.

[gmatt]

Good that Blis noted that you guys were getting a bit depressed ......so made an announcement to cheer you up and give you further hope.

Good on em.

Up 13.6% today ...... that cheers me up!!

[artemis]

I think the preventive effect is very important, and hopefully there will be more good research.

Then it will be up to DHBs or equivalent funders in other countries to do the maths. The article below quotes the clinical director of Mana Kidz saying that each case of rheumatic fever / rheumatic heart disease has a lifetime cost of a million dollars. That group though does have a vested interest in getting lots of government funding - it seems a very specialist-labour intensive programme plus antibiotics. Blis would have to be cheaper, surely, and pro rather than anti biotic.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2015/11/rheumatic-fever-campaign-focuses-on-sore-throats.html

[pierre]

Up 13.6% today ...... that cheers me up!!

I suspect yesterday's little rally might run out of steam today. It seemed a bit of an over-reaction to a non-price sensitive announcement. Then again it probably motivated a bit more interest in BLT ahead of the FY17 year end at 31 March.


They have certainly been quiet since the half-year result announcement in October and the report in November so I hope the silence means they're all heads down and tails up working like crazy to keep the ship steaming ahead. The company must be on track to achieve at least the previously forecast FY17 result otherwise I expect we should have heard by now.

Interesting questions for me are:
a) will BLT exceed the FY17 forecast of $0.7m NPBT - maybe an update to come in February as they did last year?
b) have they made any progress with the trials in China?
c) what has happened in the US following GRAS approval?
d) Is the overall sales growth momentum continuing, particularly in Australasia, Europe and North America?

It will be great if the company can come up with a $1million bottom line for the year - but maybe that might be aiming just a little too high? The SP has been as high as 6.1c in the past year - a repeat seems entirely achievable if forecast results are met or bettered and there's a positive story about future growth.

Hey Brian - how about some news on what's happening down there in Dunedin?

[blissfool]

Do you think the new Japanese toothpaste is named after our newish CEO?

As as usual with Blis potentially this is huge

[emearg]

https://translate.google.co.nz/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kmt-dogfood.com%2Fblismix%2Fitem02.html&edit-text=&act=url The page mentions "Streptococcus salivarius" and "K12" on the same page, but not actually in one phrase, but it looks like Blis to me (but do you agree that it is?) An actual dog food containing Blis then?


Yes.

There is also a cat version:
http://item.rakuten.co.jp/cocotte-vert/blismix_cat_1/#blismix_cat_1

It lists "Streptococcus salivarius K12 (Good intraoral bacteria)" in it's raw ingredients list. Both products come in many different sized bags.

[emearg]

If you search for Blis K12 on the above site(which is equivalent to Ebay as I understand it) you will find many K12 products. Some of which are sourced from Western countries and some which originate in Asia.

Same for M18, but fewer, including the toothpaste product Simla found.

[simla]

Well spotted over the cat food, Emearg. In fact this is a second product brought out later.

Translated: "This time, following our original dog food "for bliss mix dog", we will release a new for cat" "For bliss mix cat" <scheduled for release on February 1, 2017>" http://kmt-dogfood.com/common/pdf/blismix_cat.pdf

So were they bringing this out anyway, or is this a sign the dog food did rather well maybe? All progress.

[GR8DAY]

.......all the above surely demonstrates that the new blood has kicked in nicely and our directors are in no way "sitting on their laurels" but pushing ahead with new initiatives now on a regular basis. This should makes us all feel pretty damn confident as to what lies ahead. Us humans seem to have no qualms about spending up large on our pets (esp Asians and the Brits) , so if this market is cracked we could well be onto a winner here. Gum disease and halitosis is a major issue for pets (and their owners!). Good work TEAM BLIS.

[Leftfield]

.......all the above surely demonstrates that the new blood has kicked in nicely and our directors are in no way "sitting on their laurels" but pushing ahead with new initiatives now on a regular basis. This should makes us all feel pretty damn confident as to what lies ahead. Us humans seem to have no qualms about spending up large on our pets (esp Asians and the Brits) , so if this market is cracked we could well be onto a winner here. Gum disease and halitosis is a major issue for pets (and their owners!). Good work TEAM BLIS.

The market seems to agree with you.... nice boost today. Roll on 6c plus....

[Yoda]

Bit of a sell down yesterday by Wu and Qiu yesterday. Are they in the 'Know' ?. A little under $ 2 mil . Makes me a bid edgy with not much news since 21 Nov.

[Leftfield]

Bit of a sell down yesterday by Wu and Qiu yesterday. Are they in the 'Know' ?. A little under $ 2 mil . Makes me a bid edgy with not much news since 21 Nov.

Agree.... as I recall these two were to guide BLT's foray into China.
Awaiting the next update with interest.

[Bilbo]

Bit of a sell down yesterday by Wu and Qiu yesterday. Are they in the 'Know' ?. A little under $ 2 mil . Makes me a bid edgy with not much news since 21 Nov.

If you read the SSH notices you will see the sale happened some time ago.
From my understanding of the SSH notices, Wen Wu remains a substantial holder and their last sale was 24/06/16. Minchun Qiu ceased being a substantial holder over a year ago (15 January 2016) and their last sale was 02/08/2016.

[Yoda]

If you read the SSH notices you will see the sale happened some time ago.
From my understanding of the SSH notices, Wen Wu remains a substantial holder and their last sale was 24/06/16. Minchun Qiu ceased being a substantial holder over a year ago (15 January 2016) and their last sale was 02/08/2016.
Excelant point and one to learn from. Thankyou.
i would have thought they would have needed to have given notice soon after 15 1 16 , but there you go. Selling at .035 must be hard when a few months later it was .05+

[emearg]

We talked about potential for years. It was pretty well understood by some posters.

Potential didn't convert into revenue or profit for a really long time!

Revenue started to grow several years ago:
March 14 - 0.5 million revenue
Sept 14 - 1.1 million revenue
March 15 - 1.4 million revenue
Sept 15 - 2.7 million revenue
March 16 - 2.9 million revenue
Sept 16 - 3.8 million revenue
March 17 - revenue predicted to be at least 4.2 million (based on full year forecast given a few months ago)

One might say a trend has been established?

A profit is predicted for the full year.

I still think the potential is huge so can't think of any reason to sell at this point.

[Leftfield]

From BLT today, these findings already reported, so I suspect that this is a gentle reminder to the Govt that BLT should be considered in any campaign to reduce the incidence of rheumatic fever.

February 13, 2017.

Study results show K12 probiotic helps prevent rheumatic fever

As the Government launches a new rheumatic fever awareness campaign this
week, results from a recent European clinical trial show that the daily use
of a Kiwi-developed oral probiotic, BLIS K12 TM, is associated with a
significant and ongoing reduction in throat infections and other
streptococcal diseases among children.1

Rheumatic fever is a complication of a throat infection caused by
Streptococcus pyogenes bacteria. Left untreated, the bacteria can cause
serious health problems, including heart failure or heart valve damage.
Children and young people from Pacific and Maori communities are the most
vulnerable.

The Government's $65 million programme to reduce the number of new rheumatic
fever cases by two-thirds by June 2017 is falling behind its target and the
goal might not be reached till 2019 or later.

BLIS K12 or Streptococcus salivarius K12 is the world's first probiotic for
the mouth and throat and is hostile to the growth of Streptococcus pyogenes,
the most important bacterial cause of throat infections in humans.

"BLIS K12 populates the mouth and throat with a beneficial strain of
Streptococcus salivarius which not only crowds out the bad bacteria, but
produces antimicrobial peptides that add a level of protection against them
coming back. As this latest study shows, it is effective in preventing
streptococcal throat infections.

We believe this probiotic should be considered, alongside other strategies,
as one way of reducing streptococcal sore throats and the possible
complications such as rheumatic fever in our communities," explains BLIS
Technologies chief technology officer, Dr John Hale.

The study, published in the Drug Healthcare and Patient Safety Journal by a
team from Velleja Research led by Dr Francesco Di Pierro in Italy, ran an
observational study of 124 schoolchildren in 2014. The treated group of 48
children with a recent history of recurrent pharyngeal streptococcal disease
(sore throats) received a daily oral dose of BLIS K12 for 90 days. A control
group of 76 children with no recent history of sore throats who were not
given BLIS K12 was also monitored.

During the trial the incidence of throat infections (streptococcal
pharyngo-tonsillitis) was reduced by 90 percent in the treated group compared
to the previous (pre-treatment) year and was lower than the untreated low
risk control group.
The authors reported that the results agree with previous findings that BLIS
K12 offers benefits to children in reducing streptococcal disease along with
some other throat and ear infections.2

BLIS K12 is present in ThroatGuard Lozenges and ToddlerProtect powder, both
of which are available over-the-counter from pharmacies and online at
www.blis.co.nz (http://www.blis.co.nz/)
Ends

[pierre]

It's all very well publishing notices on the NZX - but what are they doing about talking to the people in Government/Health Ministry or whomever is involved with managing the 65 million bucks spend up on rheumatic fever reduction?

Getting a commitment to spend 10% of that sum on K12 lozenges would have a huge impact on kid's health - and wouldn't be all bad for BLT either!

I hope Dr Hale and/or someone from the BLT marketing department was on a plane to Wellington today - or will be tomorrow.

[artemis]

There was the BOP field trial which had very good results. And looks like Auckland Uni has a current research project based at Whakatane Hospital. Not sure if it is underway or not though. Would not be surprised if it is funded by BLT.

"Research, ethics proposal preparation for Probiotic Blis K12 in Group A Streptococcal infections in a high ARF risk area"

I'm sure BLT is well on top of this and maybe other initiatives, and in close contact with Ministry of Health. Would be good to get an update though.

[simla]

Presumably that was a media release in the hope of drumming up public support, but it seems only Scoop has run it so far. It is mighty strange how reluctant the government are to run with this given the excellent results we saw in the BOP.


One might say a trend has been established?
I'm not sure how we can know that until the company gives us an idea of how much of the revenue is repeat orders, especially in times of new markets and new products. Not a figure they've ever given us before alas.

[patrick]

There was the BOP field trial which had very good results. And looks like Auckland Uni has a current research project based at Whakatane Hospital. Not sure if it is underway or not though. Would not be surprised if it is funded by BLT.

"Research, ethics proposal preparation for Probiotic Blis K12 in Group A Streptococcal infections in a high ARF risk area"

I'm sure BLT is well on top of this and maybe other initiatives, and in close contact with Ministry of Health. Would be good to get an update though.

But, if history is a guide, a solution will be found "off shore".
In this country we have a over hyped homage of foreign qualifications and solutions.
Just listen to the respect given to any New NZers on radio and in print, when local just as expert folk are ignored.
"Manchester or Bristol must be better"
No resentment, just fact.
Pat

[simla]

Yes, NZ is not good at believing in itself. One of the main reasons I have done my little bit to back BLT all these years is to support NZ Inc. I haven't the slightest idea why we don't back ourselves more - most countries do.

[pierre]

The real question here is: What is BLT doing or what have they done to contact and influence whomever is responsible for spending $65 million of our money on rheumatic fever reduction. Just saying in a press release that they believe Blis K12 should be considered as one of the strategies in the project is hardly going to motivate the bureaucrats. I would have expected BLT to have told us what action they have taken to have the product included as part of the programme and if it isn't on the list - why not? The press release seems a pretty half-hearted approach to me - very disappointing.

[skid]

The real question here is: What is BLT doing or what have they done to contact and influence whomever is responsible for spending $65 million of our money on rheumatic fever reduction. Just saying in a press release that they believe Blis K12 should be considered as one of the strategies in the project is hardly going to motivate the bureaucrats. I would have expected BLT to have told us what action they have taken to have the product included as part of the programme and if it isn't on the list - why not? The press release seems a pretty half-hearted approach to me - very disappointing.

You know and I know that prevention is the key...but the medical industry is imo still firmly entrenched in the strategy of waiting for the problem and then treating it (as best they can)....to be realistic though they DO have to convince those kids to stop going out to play rugby with a strep throat.

[Leon]

The real question here is: What is BLT doing or what have they done to contact and influence whomever is responsible for spending $65 million of our money on rheumatic fever reduction. Just saying in a press release that they believe Blis K12 should be considered as one of the strategies in the project is hardly going to motivate the bureaucrats. I would have expected BLT to have told us what action they have taken to have the product included as part of the programme and if it isn't on the list - why not? The press release seems a pretty half-hearted approach to me - very disappointing.
This is a golden opportunity to advance the positive benefits of Blis. It needs to be aired on the front page of the NZ Herald.

[artemis]

You know and I know that prevention is the key...but the medical industry is imo still firmly entrenched in the strategy of waiting for the problem and then treating it (as best they can)....to be realistic though they DO have to convince those kids to stop going out to play rugby with a strep throat.

To be fair, we pretty much expect the medical profession to be conservative. And that is as it should be. They need to stick with what is known and tested. GPs are not going to start prescribing BLIS to individuals as a preventative, obviously. Dentists might recommend eventually. Apart from individuals purchasing and re-purchasing, the revenue will come from trials which show population benefits which cost justify funded programmes. Don't need much reduction in rheumatic fever cases for benefits to exceed costs.

We have milk and cereal in schools, we have fruit in schools, we have raincoats and gumboots in schools. Why not BLIS in schools?

[emearg]

I'm not sure how we can know that until the company gives us an idea of how much of the revenue is repeat orders, especially in times of new markets and new products. Not a figure they've ever given us before alas.

The nature of the revenue isn't relevant in determining if a trend of increasing revenue has been established. Six periods of increasing revenue is a trend in my book. You might require more than 3 years of increases to conclude a trend has been established. Fine.

And given they never have, and almost certainly never will break down the revenue in that detail for us, waiting until we have that detail to draw conclusions is pointless in my opinion.

[winner69]

Hell's bell. Is this bad news just as things were looking honky dory

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253259.pdf

They say underlying demand is unaffected - just a timing issue

But hope the new owners don't decide to do a range review ......and throw Blis out

[GR8DAY]

.........probably (and hopefully) best described as a "minor hiccup." Someone pass me the BLIS please.

[simla]

Guess we have to wait until about May for an update on what this means. Yes, first piece of disappointing news in a while. Possibly new client owners hunkering down for the increasingly interesting world economy rather than any change in the customer point of view. Or maybe just a typical purchase of a company being followed by a withdrawal of cash from the purchased company - completely unrelated to Blis therefore?

Neverthless the lack of growth in revenue during this financial year has been puzzling. Was the Q1 revenue of 1.9m (presentation agm) in fact stock build up rather than underlying demand, and hence a false impression maybe? And is that what is being reversed out in this announcement maybe even?

Hence my interest in knowing how much is repeat orders. I notice they almost refer to that themselves this time: "It is important to note that the changes do not reflect any change in underlying customer demand". Well good that there is an underlying repeat order base but it would be helpful for us to know how much of that is what the revenue is - 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% - as that would allow us to judge how much the revenue can swing in good and bad years maybe?

On the better news front (maybe) does "instead reflect changes in timing of purchases by these customers" mean that the orders are still there but will be booked next year?

Well, it doesn't sounds awfully bad to me, life goes on. I remain cautious but hopeful.

[jonu]

Substantial order at 4.2.
Wonder if it is a backstop that will evaporate.

[jonu]

Substantial order at 4.2.
Wonder if it is a backstop that will evaporate.

Hmmm...Sure enough ...Goneburger

[Leftfield]

Putting things into perspective. Trading Revenue to 31/3/16 was $5.6 mill. This revised forecast to 31/3/17 is $6.5 mill. An increase of 17.8% which is not bad.

However, much now depends on controlling costs to meet their reduced revenue expectations.

[simla]

No, I think this does deserve thought.



March 14 - 0.5 million revenue
Sept 14 - 1.1 million revenue
March 15 - 1.4 million revenue
Sept 15 - 2.7 million revenue
March 16 - 2.9 million revenue
Sept 16 - 3.8 million revenue
March 17 - revenue predicted to be at least 4.2 million (based on full year forecast given a few months ago)
March 17 - now 2.7 .

Suddenly the trend is 1.4, 2.7, 2.9, 3.8, 2.7. Not so stellar. In fact, if we guessed that the 3.8 half had 1m of stocking up on new products (as perhaps indicated by the latest announcement showing 1.5m order cut backs to reduce stocking levels at 3 companies), then nearly flat for two years possibly?

Since we know that NZ sales have advanced nicely year after year, and that therefore it sells well, then the question must be why is it not so elsewhere? Simple answer: the big revenue growth has perhaps been new markets and new products stocking up and not repeat orders growing? If so, then repeat orders should build after the initial stock has worn in assuming customers like it.

The shortage of news from the company over the last couple of years could now be viewed as possibly that there was not a lot of good news to share?? I notice that they do not seem keen on giving out disappointing news (maybe there was none), but maybe things go better when all the cards are on the table.

I agree with many posters here that the potential is excellent. But the company needs to tell us what the situation is with underlying demand so that shareholder expectations are not getting ahead of reality. In my view anyway. An alternative explanation is that overseas demand is not growing especially rapidly in which case we also need to know.

I remain cautious but hopeful. It is a great product and experience shows that there can be excellent demand. But it is time the company gave us some back story on the revenue instead of just publishing total revenue without explanation of its makeup. For example, Asian sales went from 241k in 2015 to 753k in 2016 - a 300% increase in one year - and then 936k in the next 6 months, another 250% pa. increase in just 6 months. Yet this remarkable growth was not even commented on in the reports. Why not??

I know people think I am being negative lately, but the company has moved to cashflow positive. We should now be leaving behind our startup wild hopes phase and starting to look in more detail at each report as for any other company. The revenue expectations of the company have not increased since April last year, and are now reduced instead. I think the company should provide a commentary on that at the earliest opportunity. Hard to see the share price going anywhere before they do.

I remain relatively upbeat since the product is good and the markets are open. But I remain cautious too. There is no doubt that sales revenue in the last 12 months has not grown much. Why?

[simla]

However, much now depends on controlling costs to meet their reduced revenue expectations.

Yes, certainly. Let's hope that they explain that their revenue expectations for next year are not reduced. :)

[simla]

Also perhaps worth noting in the announcement : " The tax asset will be recognised only to the extent that it is probable that future taxable profits will be available against which the asset can be utilised and that shareholder continuity requirements are met. Accordingly, a tax asset of approximately $1.3m is expected to be recognised." https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/297031

1.3m tax is surely only about 4.5m "future taxable profits"? They seem to be feeling cautious too. Or maybe there is an issue in the shareholder continuity requirements - quite likely given the passage of time?

Maybe the company should find a keen outsider to proof read their announcements so that they can include answers to the questions implied by what they have written!

[simla]

If times are proving tougher than hoped, then every bit of experience counts. I really don't understand why they didn't add Barry to the Board when he stood down, for a while at least. If you compare the 2009 and 2016 annual reports, there has been a big loss of institutional knowledge: 4 out of 6 directors are new since 2009 and two 2009 directors gone, and at least 60% of the staff have been there less than 4 years, plus obviously a new CEO. Old hands know the old traps. And the customers.

Meanwhile, Brian is perhaps discovering the speed wobbles inherent in taking on a new company! Keep it up, mate! You've still got the maiden profit to announce, and Rome wasn't built in a day. But maybe share a bit more of the detail with us as a token of good faith.

[simla]

Basically there is no way of knowing if this bad news matters until we hear the next forward forecast or other commentary. It doesn't matter for FY2017, and we don't know what they think it will imply about FY2018.

[simla]

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/campus/otago-polytechnic/fighting-good-penguin-fight

"During the summer of 2015-16 Doc began working with Dunedin-based Blis Technologies to treat penguins with the same probiotics the company puts into throat lozenges for humans.Blis medicine was sprayed into the mouths of infected chicks every two days.

While the trial did not eradicate the bacteria, chicks who received the treatment put on half a kilo more than chicks who did not. We know that big chicks are more likely to survive in the wild "

[weasel]

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/campus/otago-polytechnic/fighting-good-penguin-fight

"During the summer of 2015-16 Doc began working with Dunedin-based Blis Technologies to treat penguins with the same probiotics the company puts into throat lozenges for humans.Blis medicine was sprayed into the mouths of infected chicks every two days.

While the trial did not eradicate the bacteria, chicks who received the treatment put on half a kilo more than chicks who did not. We know that big chicks are more likely to survive in the wild "

Needed to eat more to try and get the bad taste out of their mouths?

[emearg]

Needed to eat more to try and get the bad taste out of their mouths?

That is funny Weasel! Do you take K12?


Amazing stuff. Makes dogs breath better, humans healthier, penguins fatter and weasels funny. Amazing stuff!

[emearg]

Blis are busy updating their website. Work in progress obviously. Pity they can't lock down their staging sites. They did this a few years ago. I emailed them then and they did nothing. Guess they have learnt nothing since then in this area either.

Interesting read:
https://m2staging.blis.co.nz/default/the-john-tagg-story/

[emearg]

Simla you did a big post a week ago. It was interesting. I went back to re-read it and you had removed it? I thought that was a pity!

[skid]

If times are proving tougher than hoped, then every bit of experience counts. I really don't understand why they didn't add Barry to the Board when he stood down, for a while at least. If you compare the 2009 and 2016 annual reports, there has been a big loss of institutional knowledge: 4 out of 6 directors are new since 2009 and two 2009 directors gone, and at least 60% of the staff have been there less than 4 years, plus obviously a new CEO. Old hands know the old traps. And the customers.

Meanwhile, Brian is perhaps discovering the speed wobbles inherent in taking on a new company! Keep it up, mate! You've still got the maiden profit to announce, and Rome wasn't built in a day. But maybe share a bit more of the detail with us as a token of good faith.

I remember commenting on how it seemed a bit premature to assume the new guy would be as good as the old,at least at the start..everyone was praising him before he even proved himself ...Man, I got thrashed for that...human nature I guess. I reckon an experienced businessman from China on board would pay off

[emearg]

I remember commenting on how it seemed a bit premature to assume the new guy would be as good as the old,at least at the start..everyone was praising him before he even proved himself ...Man, I got thrashed for that...human nature I guess. I reckon an experienced businessman from China on board would pay off

Yes I thought the same thing at the time but didn't comment one way or the other. I think it is still too soon to write him off, or praise him as we don't have all the facts.

And yes someone from China who understands how business is done in China on the board would be a worthy addition.

[simla]

Simla you did a big post a week ago. It was interesting. I went back to re-read it and you had removed it? I thought that was a pity!
A lot of it is in my last few posts anyway. But I try not to post anything too complex these days as I am trying to take more of a back seat than I used to in discussions. Sometimes I post and then delete when I remember that.

[simla]

Blis are busy updating their website. Work in progress obviously. Pity they can't lock down their staging sites. They did this a few years ago. I emailed them then and they did nothing. Guess they have learnt nothing since then in this area either.

Interesting read:
https://m2staging.blis.co.nz/default/the-john-tagg-story/
Thanks, Emearg. People might like to see the front page part of that too. https://m2staging.blis.co.nz/default/ As you say, it is presumably a work in progress. Someone is doing a lot of work though.

(Small note though: The word "Conditions" sounds like legal terms and conditions not medical conditions.)

[weasel]

Emearg's point was why is their staging site exposed to the internet and not behind a firewall? It's very unprofessional.

[simla]

Maybe, but they are not professional web site developers. Meanwhile it is nice for us to see the sort of thing they are working on.

Hey, we had some unexpected bad news but not let's not start adding in the small stuff. These guys are still coping with a very big ask. I am concerned that revenue expectations have not increased and would appreciate some helpful discussion of that from the company, along with more news generally, but so far we are not seeing evidence of things going backwards, just of a couple of customers trimming their cash investments in holding stock to judge by the latest news. Yes, an actual cloud on the horizon for the first time in a while, but not evidence of a storm approaching. We hope that we will get more useful news by May at the latest.

[patrick]

Hell's bell. Is this bad news just as things were looking honky dory

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253259.pdf

They say underlying demand is unaffected - just a timing issue

But hope the new owners don't decide to do a range review ......and throw Blis out

Am I right in assuming that the $1.3m tax asset is not in any way relevant to the predicted maiden profit?
Thanks

[simla]

Suddenly the trend is 1.4, 2.7, 2.9, 3.8, 2.7. Not so stellar. In fact, if we guessed that the 3.8 half had 1m of stocking up on new products (as perhaps indicated by the latest announcement showing 1.5m order cut backs to reduce stocking levels at 3 companies), then nearly flat for two years possibly?

...

I remain relatively upbeat since the product is good and the markets are open. But I remain cautious too. There is no doubt that sales revenue in the last 12 months has not grown much. Why?

Maybe the company is about to issue a final update for the year? And maybe they are about to issue a forward guidance a little later? Will we find out whether positive cash flow was actually achieved for the whole year? Was there in fact a loss for the second half, or did they match expenses to actual income despite the unexpected deferral?

Well, the golden rule of debating is this: If you don't start with the truth as the audience sees it then you will not influence them. They should address the question of whether growth is still growing strongly, or is in fact somewhat stalled.

The crew need to be able to look at the captain and see if he is happy (my pet view of investment for many years now) but all we see presently is the closed door of the captain's office. Is there happiness in there or gloom? We don't know, or I don't anyway. Of course, it would be nice to knock on the cabin door and ask. But publicly listed companies can only make information available by public statement.

[pierre]

Hi Simla
BLT issued a sales and profit update on April 14 last year. Maybe we might get the same this year especially as they are forecasting their maiden profit. If that happens we have only three weeks to wait.
Patience Grasshopper.

[Rego55]

As an investor and a buyer of Blis based overseas I was disappointed to read this:

Dear subscriber,
In the past you have subscribed to Blis website and communications through a tool called ‘Sumo’ which has provided us with your email address and permission to contact you.

Blis Technologies is undergoing a significant review of its online activities including a new website and e-commerce operation and these changes will impact on future orders from Blis.

For those of you based in NZ, you will still be able to purchase products from our website.
We are making changes to the shipping policy in NZ. We will be moving to using NZ Post Track and Trace for all orders. For any order under $80 in value, shipping will cost $5. For all orders over $80, shipping will be complimentary.

International visitors will not have access to purchasing Blis products online when we make this change. We will be building up our international sites again as quickly as possible but it may be some months until these are functional again. We want to ensure that our international visitors can pay in local currency and that shipping is easy and transparent. This means we need to spend time to build specific sites for key international countries.

An exact date is to be determined but we expect the new site will go live during the first 2 weeks of April 2017.
We will not be running the 2 sites in parallel, so for international buyers in particular, this is the time to stock up before access is suspended. We will of course keep you informed of progress for international sales.

Thank you for your ongoing support of Blis Technologies.


Kind regards
Team Blis

I can't quite believe that they can't sort out a site in the background and launch both NZ & international capabilities at the same time. I'm not terribly technically minded when it comes to websites but it seems a real shame, from an investment POV, that they are stopping the purchase of their own products and don't even have a time line as to when this will be over. Really disappointed.

[GR8DAY]

........is it really that big of a problem REGO? As they advise just stock up a bit till it comes on-line. Like you Im not that tech savvy and would also have thought they could have done a better "alignment" ........but I guess if they saw it as a big issue they would have??

[simla]

Inconvenience in the short term. But ability to pay in local currency is superb. Amazon offers that and I love it. Quality move from BLT if so.

[Rego55]

I am stocked up and it's not big deal for me. I'm just disappointed that 'it may be some months' before international visitors can buy again. I'm looking at this from the point of view that I'm invested in BLT and they're not selling product during this time. Their international online purchasers may not be a very large pool in which case, fine, but that then begs other questions. I've got 12 months of K12 and 6 months of M18 so not going to be an issue from where I sit.

[artemis]

Big mistake today from BLT. Email sent out to nearly 500 customers showing all the email addresses. They did recall it but too late. Apology followed, and some red faces I am sure. I don't suppose it will happen again, but not a good look.

[Bilbo]

Big mistake today from BLT. Email sent out to nearly 500 customers showing all the email addresses. They did recall it but too late. Apology followed, and some red faces I am sure. I don't suppose it will happen again, but not a good look.

A couple of concerns regarding that email.

1) It was only sent to around 500 people. Is that all the previous customers they have on their email list or was the mail out split into multiple batches?
2) The tech behind the email is obviously very low, probably just used an email client. No targeting of the text based on the known country of the customer etc.

[weasel]

Big mistake today from BLT. Email sent out to nearly 500 customers showing all the email addresses. They did recall it but too late. Apology followed, and some red faces I am sure. I don't suppose it will happen again, but not a good look.

Oh my god. Blis IT is a laughing stock.

[Grimy]

Well I'm peeved that despite buying plenty from them over the years on line that I didn't get an email at all. So I'm obviously not on that list-or was it just to overseas based buyers? From the above text it sounds like it was to NZ customers too, so it does raise a few questions.

[simla]

Well, anyway this reaction here is a demonstration on why companies need to put work into public perception of the company. It generates goodwill which companies need from time to time. It is why takeovers pay for goodwill.

Communication has consequences and should be as carefully planned as other activities, and not regarded as just that thing any old person can do at the last moment to meet obligations. Give it to someone with an interest in good communication (clear, comprehensive, and sensitive to emotional implications) and who expects to spend time thinking it through. And better yet get someone else with the same interest to give feedback before issuing the communication. The above email was pleasantly enough written to say what the company wanted to say, but a keen second opinion might have picked up that it did not say what the recipients wanted to hear, as witness comments above.

Likewise I would have said the current sagging share price was a reflection of the company's communications rather than its prospects. Or I hope so. Careful communication would settle that. Less telling us what the company wants to say, and more telling us what we need to hear.

The art of communication lies in saying what the other person wants to hear, not what you want to say - as anyone can attest who has endured listening to a great aunt rant on and on! It is usually possible to attain both ends with a little thought though.

[Leftfield]

I suspect BLT's communication re lower sales etc has taken the pressure off their performance, giving them breathing room to make some e-commerce marketing improvements via the internet.

That said, I think it v puzzling and concerning that they did not keep International website sales going until the new site is ready. Perhaps their International sales via the web were negligible?

This year I've reduced my holding a tab (doubled my money, so remainder is 'free') but am holding the remainder as a long term punt and looking forward to more info from the company. I suspect it will be at least Dec/Jan before we have any good news.

[RGR367]

They really have to improve especially on that website of theirs. My last online order early this month took 7 days! Seven days and without track and trace option from Dunedin when most online stores would even make the 2nd day delivery from your order date. So good on them for making some badly needed changes, be it the website or internal/external comms.

[winner69]

Blis seem to be getting 'mickey mousier' by the day

Will they ever be a decent company?

[GR8DAY]

...agree RGR. I think we all just need to suck this little "blip" up and view it as a positive..........a small cost to moving things ahead for future gains in growth. I certainly wont be loosing any sleep over it.

[Pipi]

The hole using NZ Post is a joke. I did that for a while in my business, wow talk about snail mail, i got so many complaints, also no track and trace (you really need to have that), also lots of parcel went missing.. I went back to Courier Post, who are way cheaper then $5 a parcel and a much faster service with tracking.

[simla]

This year I've reduced my holding a tab (doubled my money, so remainder is 'free') but am holding the remainder as a long term punt and looking forward to more info from the company. I suspect it will be at least Dec/Jan before we have any good news.

I have taken something of that view recently in light of the uncertainty. Haven't reduced down that far, but feel prudence is in order presently nevertheless, and have reduced a bit.


Blis seem to be getting 'mickey mousier' by the day

Will they ever be a decent company?


...agree RGR. I think we all just need to suck this little "blip" up and view it as a positive..........a small cost to moving things ahead for future gains in growth. I certainly wont be loosing any sleep over it.

These three viewpoints sum up the conundrum for investors. The company appears to be in a good position overall and the outlook must surely be reasonable. But over what time scale?

The company were "upbeat" last May. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/282826

Then we had a shareholder update in June. It was upbeat too, told us a little news, but then was not repeated later. http://blis.co.nz/media/wysiwyg/pdfs/Shareholder_Update-June_2016-Blis_Technologies.pdf

We hoped that might develop into regular news with meat in it, as this recent example from Arvida. Not so far. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255282.pdf

Then the September report had a commentary of just 1000 words including the titles. It did however talk of "strong sales performance", and future "rapid growth", and hiring 3 new key managers.

Then the February announcement of expected sales of just $6.5m compared to $5.6m last year. It said underlying demand had not changed, but of course we do not know what underlying demand is. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/297031

What to make of it? It's beyond me to know what this adds up to. Might be good, or average, or bad. The only constant seems to me to be very minimal communication.

[RGR367]

Just introduced an officemate to Blis products today and got that introduction closed when she ordered more than $100 (less 10% discount as a new online user) 5 minutes ago. Yeah, told her it will take about 7 days for her order to materialize at her doorstep :(

[winner69]

The hole using NZ Post is a joke. I did that for a while in my business, wow talk about snail mail, i got so many complaints, also no track and trace (you really need to have that), also lots of parcel went missing.. I went back to Courier Post, who are way cheaper then $5 a parcel and a much faster service with tracking.

NZ Post don't want parcels - they want you to use their subsidiary Courier Post

Blis must be pretty non-commercially minded even contemplating using normal post - unless he volume is so pathetic it's just the office girl dropping off the odd parcel at he local Post Shop on her way home.

[simla]

The quoted email did say " We will be moving to using NZ Post Track and Trace for all orders". NZ Post have been advertising a lot about their parcel services lately so maybe things have changed.

[tzbang]

I can't quite believe that they can't sort out a site in the background and launch both NZ & international capabilities at the same time. I'm not terribly technically minded when it comes to websites but it seems a real shame, from an investment POV, that they are stopping the purchase of their own products and don't even have a time line as to when this will be over. Really disappointed.

That's pretty bad.. I work for a web development company and this sort of thing isn't what I'd expect from a company the size of Blis. We're developing e-com sites all the time on development domains and testing etc until it's ready to swap out on a clients live domain with minimal downtime. Including sticking to planned launch deadlines etc. And this is all for companies much much smaller than Blis.

Also.. we have in-house jokes about companies sending emails en masse without using BCC.. so you receive everyones email addresses. I cannot believe they did that! And as Bilbo pointed out.. is 500 all they had? Probably not. Most email servers (like ours) will not entertain mass emails going out. Otherwise we risk someone starting a hosting account with us only to spam people and get our servers blacklisted.
So we safe-guard against that and insist that if a customer wants to send out a lot of emails - they need to use a proper mass-mailing tool for that (we provide one for them to use). Which is the way proper companies safely send out mass emails. We have removed customers from our hosting services before for refusing to use our mailing system - and sending out multiple batches of mass-emails just under the quota before.

All this is showing the IT ability of Blis in a very poor light - my mum has better e-com practises than this.

[davflaws]

- my mum has better e-com practises than this.

Is your mum listed?

[simla]

Look, this isn't the biggest news in the world.

But neither will the folks in Dunedin be feeling on top of the world to be reading comments like some of the above. This is WHY the company needs to take time to charm it's shareholders. So that there is goodwill floating around when you need it. So you can feel good about what people are saying and thinking about your company. So you can feel good about going to work.

Hint: You are about to deliver another annual report. Be up front. Be generous with the information. Don't suppress the bad news or the good news. Remember that your shareholders are your business partners. Charm us.

Kiwis have pretty straight forward social rules. You earn respect by being up front. You lose respect by not being up front. Kiwis are pretty forgiving of meeting difficulties, so long as you are upfront about them. Charm us with your candour. And remember that the financials will be painting a picture too, so no point trying to ignore what they say. Take time to write a full report, and take time to get someone else to read it and give you feedback about where it is ambiguous, or thin, or stone walling. Tell us what is going right, what is going wrong. Tell us what strategies you are currently following. Tell us what you hope from the next couple of years, which may be a range of possible outcomes. We value your candour and understand that things can be pretty hard sometimes ... if you are upfront in return.

Maybe even start by giving a more open brief assessment now as an end of year update. But remember to run it past someone to find out whether it really is upfront. Stone walling is the biggest charm killer going.

[weasel]

Honestly, it can surely not take much effort (1 hour?) for someone from Blis to sort out their website, which is (and has been for the 15 years I have been a shareholder) an embarrassment.

I know that Blis employees read this forum. This is for you

Go to this page.

http://blis.co.nz/faqs

Click on edit. Sort the fricking thing out.

Repeat for all pages. Read them. Fix them. You are a publicly listed company and owe it to your shareholders to at least **appear** professional, regardless of whether you actually are.

[Bilbo]

Honestly, it can surely not take much effort (1 hour?) for someone from Blis to sort out their website, which is (and has been for the 15 years I have been a shareholder) an embarrassment.


totally agree, but looks like they are in the process of relaunching their website.

Slightly off topic, but surely of interest to Blis investors, have you seen Mother Dirt - good bacteria for the skin? Check out http://motherdirt.com/

[Rego55]

That's pretty bad.. I work for a web development company and this sort of thing isn't what I'd expect from a company the size of Blis. We're developing e-com sites all the time on development domains and testing etc until it's ready to swap out on a clients live domain with minimal downtime. Including sticking to planned launch deadlines etc. And this is all for companies much much smaller than Blis.

Also.. we have in-house jokes about companies sending emails en masse without using BCC.. so you receive everyones email addresses. I cannot believe they did that! And as Bilbo pointed out.. is 500 all they had? Probably not. Most email servers (like ours) will not entertain mass emails going out. Otherwise we risk someone starting a hosting account with us only to spam people and get our servers blacklisted.
So we safe-guard against that and insist that if a customer wants to send out a lot of emails - they need to use a proper mass-mailing tool for that (we provide one for them to use). Which is the way proper companies safely send out mass emails. We have removed customers from our hosting services before for refusing to use our mailing system - and sending out multiple batches of mass-emails just under the quota before.

All this is showing the IT ability of Blis in a very poor light - my mum has better e-com practises than this.

Thanks for this - I knew this sort of service wasn't up to scratch.

[Yoda]

Blis Technologies Limited (Company) advises that Anthony Offen has attained
the status of independent director as the result of ceasing to be a
substantial product holder of the Company.

Director sold all his shares ? Mmmmmm

[emearg]

Director sold all his shares ? Mmmmmm

No. Just some. Now only has 31 million left.

[Leon]

No. Just some. Now only has 31 million left.

Perhaps he will buy some more when they do some more capital raising for China expansion

[simla]

If the company wants a blueprint on clear communication with shareholders, they need look no further than this release from the Wellington Drive AGM. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256953.pdf

And if they haven't got anyone who can communicate this well, then they should get someone. Clear communication is THE key to growing sales, given that you already have a good product. In my opinion anyway.

[emearg]

These are better:
http://blis.co.nz/products/blis-toothguard/toothguard-junior-m18.html#.WP2sIIiGMuU
http://blis.co.nz/products/toothguard-junior-m18/blis-toothguard.html#.WP1bhYiGMuU

I like em...

[simla]

Yep, super.

[emearg]

Yep, super. I suspect that is your briefest contribution ever! No in-depth analysis? Come on man!! ;)

[emearg]

These are better:
http://blis.co.nz/products/blis-toothguard/toothguard-junior-m18.html#.WP2sIIiGMuU
http://blis.co.nz/products/toothguard-junior-m18/blis-toothguard.html#.WP1bhYiGMuU

I like em...

Nice advertisement:
https://blisprobiotics.wistia.com/medias/nlfe42rwqh

You can click skip rather than entering your email address if you wish.

It seems the new guy has some marketing smarts.

[simla]

Yes, that is good. I'd have thought that will surprise people a bit, assuming it is scheduled for tv.

The company news remains a small number of hard to correlate information points. Here's hoping the next report has a "you are here" section.

[emearg]

I'd have thought that will surprise people a bit, assuming it is scheduled for tv.

Given it's length I would think TV is certainly one target delivery mechanism. Are there others planned?

[weasel]

assuming it is scheduled for tv.
.

Doubt it as they have no money. Actually, how come they able to produce a cartoon but aren't able to fix the pig's breakfast that is their website FAQ?
Wease

[hummerh40]

BLT


08/05/2017 08:35


MKTUPDTE


PRICE SENSITIVE


REL: 0835 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited





MKTUPDTE: BLT: Blis Technologies reports a maiden EBITDA surplus





Blis Technologies reports a maiden EBITDA surplus





Blis Technologies reports an unaudited EBITDA surplus of $586k but a small


net deficit of $24k on total revenue of $6,547k (2015: $5,661k) for the


twelve months to 31 March 2017.





The operating cashflow positive result represents an EBITDA turnaround of


$846k compared with last year and comes on the back of a 16% increase in


trading revenue.





The Board of directors have chosen to defer the recognition of any tax asset


due to the net financial deficit.





The company will report its full year annual audited financial results by


Monday 26 May 2017.

[hummerh40]

The stars are beginning to align. Still can't get over the hurdle of declaring that magic 'P' word though....

[winner69]

BLT


08/05/2017 08:35


MKTUPDTE


PRICE SENSITIVE


REL: 0835 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited





MKTUPDTE: BLT: Blis Technologies reports a maiden EBITDA surplus





Blis Technologies reports a maiden EBITDA surplus





Blis Technologies reports an unaudited EBITDA surplus of $586k but a small


net deficit of $24k on total revenue of $6,547k (2015: $5,661k) for the


twelve months to 31 March 2017.





The operating cashflow positive result represents an EBITDA turnaround of


$846k compared with last year and comes on the back of a 16% increase in


trading revenue.





The Board of directors have chosen to defer the recognition of any tax asset


due to the net financial deficit.





The company will report its full year annual audited financial results by


Monday 26 May 2017.



Incredible - amazing - awesome

Ebitda +ve - after how many years - the tide has turned.

[Meextr]

Maybe they can now afford to do that TV ad that was suggested earlier.

[patrick]

Historic!
Good result in view of the extra staff salaries for much of the period.

[simla]

Obviously that is extremely good news.

But not without shades to my mind. The first 6 months report had a surplus before tax of 428k (p6), whereas this is deficit of 24k, which would seem to imply a second half loss of 452k? Also, it reports cash flow positive operating full year. But the first half had positive operating cash of 690k (p9), so there would appear to be a possibility of negative operating cash second half, although that is just a surmise based on the seeming second half loss.

The final revenue was 6.547m. The AGM presentation last year reported Q1 revenue of 1.947m (p19), leaving 4.6m for the remainder of the year, which annualises at (4.6 * 4/3) or 6.13m pa, or just 8% more than last year if you ignore the early Q1 larger figure, which was almost a year ago.

Further, the AGM presentation last year reported an EBITDA of 340k for Q1 (p19), whereas the full year is apparently 586k, or 240k extra for the remaining 9 months, or 80k per quarter?

Yes, very good news. We've waited a long time for that. But I continue to look forward to full reporting from the company in the next report.

As usual, do your own maths. I'm a shareholder. Just my personal viewpoint.

[simla]

Source : last few annual reports, plus update on 2017 just published.




(000s)20132014201520162017



Loss-1856-1541]-1373-816-24


Revenue11611322263156616547


Total Expenses30172863400464776571


Cost of goods sold5275859351762


Ergo other expenses?2490227830694715



So a few points.

1. The revenue has increase 5.6 fold in four years.
2. The increase in revenue of 5386k has resulted in reducing the loss by 1832k.
3. Other expenses (not cost of goods sold) have apparently increased 53% just between 2015 and 2016, and about doubled from 2013 to 2016.
4. These figures show why we still have not got a profit ie. extra expenses? Could the company simply "decide" to reach a good profit next year then, or even in a few months first half?

I have checked the figures carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them. As usual, just my viewpoint, feel free to dispute it.

[Harvey Specter]

Good result but still cant convince the auditor that they will be profitable (on a tax basis) going forward. Otherwise they would have recognised the Deferred Tax Asset with respect to tax losses carried forward. Hopefully it is just the auditors being overly conservative!

[simla]

I have to confess to being disappointed. I'm sure people are working hard, but that was not what we hoped for after an "upbeat" start to the year.

This is turning into a game of two questions:

1. Why is there not more growth?
2. Why is the company spending so much if they do not have the income to cover it?

Of course, the company could and should answer those questions in the next report. It's not like nobody has noticed these obvious big points. The financials always report on those points quite openly.

[simla]

6.5m in revenue, and yet what do we get? Yet another loss. Unexciting growth. No chance of dividends in the foreseeable future as things stand? Share price going nowhere. And some lucky people presumably get to stand for re-election this year as usual. Interesting.

Happily the board will present the situation fully in the annual report and we'll all be happy duckies!