BLT - Blis Technologies

[Chanchay]

Up 20% today ...maybe Barry bought on market?
Look at the volume. Imaginary value I think

[pierre]

Barry's interest in the company as a director has been declared - 17.9 million shares. He's got a reasonable amount of skin in the game.

[GR8DAY]

Barry's interest in the company as a director has been declared - 17.9 million shares. He's got a reasonable amount of skin in the game.


.......thanks for that Pierre. Just what every company should have and needs, a director that has a REAL interest in seeing that SPrice go only one way and is prepared to do something about it........hopefully back up to where it was from here.

[winner69]

Barry's interest in the company as a director has been declared - 17.9 million shares. He's got a reasonable amount of skin in the game.

About what he had when he left ......probably been holding in hope of a higher share price.

[simla]

I'll bet they're all looking forward to the first Board meeting after all that! However, people always manage to sort out any differences of viewpoint once they talk and listen, and I'm sure this will be no exception.
A graceful move from the company. Well done. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321700

3 August 2018

Blis welcomes new board member

Blis Technologies Limited (NZX:BLT) welcomes Mr Barry Richardson as an independent director of the company following his election at the Annual Meeting held on Friday 27th July 2018.

Mr Richardson will bring more than 30 years of management experience in commercialising science and undertaking business development roles for early stage biotechnology and nutritional companies, including his time with Tatua Co-Operative Dairy Ltd, Westland Milk Products Ltd and 10 years as CEO of Blis Technologies Ltd.

Holding a PhD from Massey University and current directorships in CertusBio and CNS Biotechnology, Mr Richardson will bring valued expertise and experience to the board.

Blis are the developers of the world’s first advanced oral probiotics. The BLIS range includes products that support ear, nose and throat health. BLIS probiotics were discovered by Professor John Tagg while working as a researcher at the University of Otago Microbiology Department.

Tony Offen
Chairman

[simla]

Well, that is surely a sign that they intend to combine their strengths for the maximum good of the company. A very good omen to my mind.

[pierre]

Very good to see that Barry's experience and expertise is now valued by the Board. A bit different from the rather terse "he wont be much use to us" message prior to the election.

I think it's fantastic that the shareholders have spoken and that the Board now has the opportunity to utilise Barry's skills for the benefit of the business. Of course, this also places a fair bit of pressure on Barry to see that BLT produces a much improved outcome for shareholders. How long do you think we should give him to deliver?

Two things are for sure:
a) it's bound to be all Barry's fault if the results don't improve
b) Success will have many fathers

Bonne chance Barry

[simla]

No, I'm really quite optimistic after that announcement. If they can genuinely forge an amalgam of Barry's previous tight ship expenditure and detailed planning with whatever the new dream is (and maybe get them to explain it more clearly) then the result could yet be pleasing to see. Much to deal with obviously: costs; why the revenue isn't growing; post-patents.

But a team pulling together is a strong asset to have so I will watch with interest. I'm definitely more hopeful after seeing the company putting out that olive branch.

[GR8DAY]

Personally SIMLA I would be hopeful of a positive announcement due to the new influencer (Barry) within 3mnths.....at the very least an "indication" that plans are afoot to either reduce overheads substantially or effect a new global marketing program to lift the awareness of oral probiotics and of course the BLIS brand. Within 6 months I would expect an announcement that benefits of these changes are now being seen along with a positive forecast. 12mnths out hopefully we will hear those words that a sustainable profit is within sight. Is this too much to expect fellow shareholders?

[pierre]

Personally SIMLA I would be hopeful of a positive announcement due to the new influencer (Barry) within 3mnths.....at the very least an "indication" that plans are afoot to either reduce overheads substantially or effect a new global marketing program to lift the awareness of oral probiotics and of course the BLIS brand. Within 6 months I would expect an announcement that benefits of these changes are now being seen along with a positive forecast. 12mnths out hopefully we will hear those words that a sustainable profit is within sight. Is this too much to expect fellow shareholders?
All the above please Gr8day - and a decent upward trend in the SP.

[winner69]

Share price going nowhere ......suppose it takes time for Barry to weave his magic.

[bullfrog]

Share price going nowhere ......suppose it takes time for Barry to weave his magic.
Everybody holding their breath, but wait, take a Bliss mint and you can breathe with confidence...hha

[winner69]

As they say in the trade thousands of new doors open for Blis

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/323542

[simla]

I don't think that can impact much on the outlook until such time as the company shows the knack of turning sales revenue into profit. Likewise I think the share price is probably going nowhere until that is shown too. And I really cannot see that tiny profits are going to change that outlook either. Something more noticeable is needed to my mind.

There are two new board members now. Will that impact on results this financial year? I hope so as the results are not electric presently.

[fungus pudding]

As they say in the trade thousands of new doors open for Blis

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/323542

Not as quickly as they get slammed shut by research.
e.g. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2178860-probiotics-are-mostly-useless-and-can-actually-hurt-you/

[mfd]

Not as quickly as they get slammed shut by research.
e.g. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2178860-probiotics-are-mostly-useless-and-can-actually-hurt-you/

Blis products do not target the gut, so this research is not relevant. The relevant research actually looking at blis products is much more supportive

[jimbo]

Blis products do not target the gut, so this research is not relevant. The relevant research actually looking at blis products is much more supportive

Agreed that the oral cavity is a totally different ecological niche and there are different dynamics at play BUT.....as always, the problem is that BLIS need sales. Enough sales that they can't rely on only selling to the over-informed. As a very easy popular press headline this study is unhelpful (or neutral at best).

[winner69]

That story was even on the main TV news last night ....unless the uninformed really paid attention the message was probiotics not much use (for anything)

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/probiotics-may-not-gastro-miracle-some-expect-research

[Yoda]

Not as quickly as they get slammed shut by research.
e.g. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2178860-probiotics-are-mostly-useless-and-can-actually-hurt-you/
FMT. Anyone?:scared: Maybe we should bottle that !!

[winner69]

Family member is taking part in a Otago Uni study as to how probiotics might help one avoid diabetes

[simla]

Well, another board member appointed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324578

Funny, there was one vacancy in May 2018. "In addition [to this appointment] BLIS will be looking for another board member" https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317597 And then the shareholders appointed one. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321700 Yet they appoint another one anyway?

But how many directors are there? I missed that there were only 5 during late 2017 https://www.nzx.com/announcements/304753, instead of 6 as before. The resignation in May 2017 was not replaced until the appointment in May 2018, then two resigned at the AGM, and one was elected, still leaving only 5. Now this new appointment takes it back up to 6 for the first time since May 2017. By my count anyway. I seem to have missed this because the 2017 company report predated the May resignation so listed six, and then the November report did not list the directors at all so it was not evident. And then the list was quite complicated in the 2018 report so again I did not notice.

So that will be three new directors out of six (by my count!) so room for a detailed review of what they are doing? I do not see how much can have changed since the July AGM by the November report coming up, and neither do we know if they are looking to change anything. But half the board being new to the strategy of the last two years or so must indicate some room for review of where the company is going. Or maybe everything is going tickety boo and good news is about to flow.

Anyway, the new director seems to have a good history so potentially good. She is CEO of FAR ("Making cropping the highest returning land use for New Zealand farmers. "), as per the announcement, and here is their strategy statement https://www.far.org.nz/assets/files/blog/files//4bde7d9b-2e5f-463c-88c5-5e29fc5f1e2c.pdf I like what FAR stands for and I like the clarity and communication power in that statement. Could be a good addition for BLT and kind of her to make herself available.

I keep dithering over whether to buy back into BLT in a small way and see the journey through now that the company has been made aware of shareholder views through the vote. I'm still dithering though.

[Leftfield]

Keep dithering Simla..... they need to get some runs on the board (pun intended.)

[simla]

I always think a candle burns in the darkest night.

But yes, the company presently faces issues over stalled growth, stalled profit (loss), and patents looming. There was an EBITDA of -92k in Q1 already Q1 Announcement (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320595), with ITDA probably another -150k (based on 2018 full year p3 2018 Annual Report (https://blis.co.nz/wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Annual-Report-2018.pdf)), so Q1 was probably a loss of about -250k. Just breaking even for H1 would therefore appear to require an EBITDA for Q2 of about +400k ( EBIDTA Q1 + EBIDTA Q2 + ITDA Q1 + ITDA Q2 = 0 or -92k + 392k -150k -150k = 0), which would be an increase on EBITDA Q1 of about +500k, with sales in Q1 being 1640k. That would appear to be a difficult objective.

(I think that is right, but check it yourself as usual.)

But admitting you need to achieve a goal is always a huge step forward and half of the board are coming at this from a fresh perspective now, so room for candle holders.

[winner69]

Wonder how the Blis ginger lollies are going

[fungus pudding]

Wonder how the Blis ginger lollies are going

And what about the ice-cream?

[steveb]

Blis are offering shareholder discount,which seems a good idea,as they should be preaching to the converted.I have often found the Blis product I wanted was not available in my local chemist9or got talked into something else by the pretty sales assistant)
Now you can apply for a discount code and purchase online,just one teething problem my discount code was not recognized!So can't advise you on the discount available

[NeverQuestion]

Blis are offering shareholder discount,which seems a good idea,as they should be preaching to the converted.I have often found the Blis product I wanted was not available in my local chemist9or got talked into something else by the pretty sales assistant)
Now you can apply for a discount code and purchase online,just one teething problem my discount code was not recognized!So can't advise you on the discount available

Personally, I have gone on a hunt for BLIS products in every new Chemist I come across. Yet to find it. So I think a bit of growth in just the domestic market that can be made.

[artemis]

Personally, I have gone on a hunt for BLIS products in every new Chemist I come across. Yet to find it. So I think a bit of growth in just the domestic market that can be made.

Mostly available in wellington CBD pharmacies, but only one or two products usually. I think M18 products could be marketed to / through dentists. Sure, it will do them out of some business but dentist endorsements must be worth a lot. My dentist had never heard of it earlier this year, though had heard of other BLIS for sore throats.

[simla]

Well, November starts tomorrow and another report due soon. I have been chewing it over quite a bit and I think the only really solid news that shareholders could be pleased with would be clear action on reducing costs significantly. I don't know if that is feasible. But we have seen revenue grow significantly over the last few years and yet always the costs have grown too. So even a jump in revenue now doesn't promise a lot of impact on profit unless the cost structure changes. Or that's how it seems to me anyway.

If the costs are strongly cut then the present share price seems to me to be too low. But if not then the share price seems to me to be too high. I say that because the costs seem to me to be the main driver in profitability now, and considering too the unknown outlook on patents. I think the current share price probably requires a profit of about a million to stack up to anything half understandable. Well, that could happen if costs are strongly addressed but hard to see it happening otherwise. To me anyway.

Just my musings. Disagreements welcome. Still not a shareholder presently but might look again if they have clearly addressed costs. It certainly will be interesting to see if board changes filter through to the report in any way.

[pierre]

I visited the hygienist at my periodontist again yesterday for my 3 monthly check up and scaling. She was impressed at the condition of my gums and asked if I was still taking the Blis Toothguard. I confirmed I was and she said well it's obviously working (in conjunction with plenty of cleaning & mouthwash etc) and extended my next visit to 6 months.

She said Blis often has a stand or display at dental conference events she attends but is still not that familiar with the product - neither is my regular dentist.

Not sure how you get dental professionals to recommend a product that will have the effect of reducing the amount of business walking in their door. Maybe they could be set up as stockists to promote and sell the product so they get the retail margin?

However Blis have been quite active with email promotion over recent months and have now offered a shareholders discount. Maybe preaching to the converted but at least there's some marketing action under way.

[Ghost Monkey]

I've never had any trouble finding Blis products in any of the pharmacy's in my area, and they seem to sell. What I'd like to see is Blis on supermarket shelves next to that useless Strepsils brand! But I suppose in order to achieve this they'd have to show strong sales figures and/or give the supermarkets heavy discounts to promote??

[simla]

Thinking about it, there must be a reasonable chance that they will announce something interesting in the half report. The board will have had the approximate half results for a little bit now and thus a few weeks to think it over before announcing. I don't see how the result can be much to write home about (by simple maths, my post 3 Oct (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=731897&viewfull=1#post731897)) and you might think that would be quite a spur to make some big decisions if it is to get a lot better over time.

Or not. But if the result is disappointing, then there surely is a chance it will be accompanied by some decisions? Or maybe it will be a great result after all anyway.

3 weeks max and we find out if the three new board members have any visible effect at this point in time.

[suse]

well they released it 20 November last year and 21 November year before. HOwever before both of those announcements there was a forecast update... nothing on that as yet so I'm guessing it is neither good or bad news

[simla]

Half year report out : https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

The figures:



(000s)H1 2016H1 2017H1 2018H1 2019



Trading Revenue2708383620692987


Total Expenses3137341133183352



Loss-405+428-1246]-500


Net cash flow (ex finance)-946+538-625--231


Working capital2192251011451131



I have checked these fairly carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them.

[winner69]

Half year report out : https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

The figures:



(000s)H1 2016H1 2017H1 2018H1 2019



Trading Revenue2708383620692987


Total Expenses3137341133183352



Loss-405+428-1246]-500


Net cash flow (ex finance)-946+538-625--231


Working capital2192251011451131



I have checked these fairly carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them.

Suppose need to wait another six months to see if things are really working

[simla]

The commentary:

Key Highlights for HY19 include:

All regions and channels experiencing at least double-digit growth over the same period last year
iNova Pharmaceuticals agreement finalised to distribute BLIS branded finished goods across selected markets in Asia Pacific and Africa (Australia, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia). Australia launch expected by the end of FY19.
BLIS branded finished products launched on Amazon USA platform
New launches by our European Distributor: BLIS K12TM based product: Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, UAE, BLIS M18TM based product: Poland
Regulatory approvals: BLIS M18TM Self affirmed GRAS in USA, BLIS K12TM based products approved in Russia and Belgium
ThroatGuard PRO TM with BLIS K12TM is the highest selling throat lozenge YTD in New Zealand (NZ) pharmacy.
Approval received for a Growth Grant from Callaghan Innovation, providing20% rebate on qualifying Research and Development spend.

Key Challenges for HY19 include:

Long lead times with new customer initiatives
Navigation of regulatory pathways
Limited resources for targeting accelerated growth opportunities.


[Plus a fair amount of detail]

OUTLOOK

The first half year has seen good growth in revenue across all regions compared with the same period last year.
With the second half year of sales aligning with the northern hemisphere winter and new customer/ market
opportunities, including the first supply for an expanded Australia launch we reaffirm our existing market guidance.
Full financial year (FY19) guidance - revenue in excess of $7.0 m, an EBITDA in excess of $0.6 m and a small net
surplus before tax.

[simla]

Well, I cannot see any variation on past reports myself. Revenue has only recovered to the level of three years ago and expenses continue to exceed income.

I see no sign at this point that changing half the board has changed the travel plan. I notice that the tone is that it is all good news apparently, with just a tiny reference to "key challenges". Also, I notice that the revenue is forecast to increase by about $1m before the year end, and that this will create an EBITDA of $0.6m despite revenue in this half presently being less than expenses. I do not see how that is expected to occur therefore as it would appear to imply a different cost structure on that last $1m?

Sorry, but I see nothing new here and I do not see how the current cost structure is expected to produce a profit.

But, hey, that's just my personal view. I never claim to be right. Disagreement welcome as always.

[GR8DAY]

.....well it looks like (if nothing else) we've got off to a good start (first half) for the current financial year with increased revenue and a substantial reduction to the first half loss of last year. Lets hope further improvements in all areas can be made and the forecast "small profit" becomes a medium sized profit.??

[Leftfield]

Well summarised Simla, while I wish this company well, I no longer hold and merely watch from afar.

IMO BLT need to prove that changing Board and staff is more than merely shifting deck chairs on the Titanic and that their product range is still relevant.

[simla]

Something itched at me over that result, and I figured it out over the weekend. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

(a) H1 profit result = -500k.
(b) Forecast FY profit result break even = 0m.
(c) So forecast H2 profit result = +500k. (-500 + 500 = 0)

(d) So forecast H2 profit result is an increase on H1 profit of $1m.

(e) H1 revenue is 3m.
(f) Forecast FY revenue = 7m
(g) So forecast H2 revenue is 4m (3m + 4m = 7m) an increase on H1 revenue of $1m.

=> So the H2 forecast is for an extra $1m profit than H1 ... on an extra $1m revenue than H1?


Well, all things are possible, but that would appear to require some significant change between H1 and H2. I've checked this carefully, but I'm only human and would be pleased if someone tells me where I've made a mistake?

And if the FY result is instead another loss, as that maths might seem to imply is possible, will shareholders be happy? Well, we find out easily enough as presumably 2 out of the 3 not-new directors must offer themselves for re-election at the AGM, since the last annual report (https://blis.co.nz/wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Annual-Report-2018.pdf) stated (p13) "One third of the Company’s Directors (rounded, if necessary, to the nearest number) are required to retire and may stand for re-election at every Annual Meeting, with those Directors to retire being those who have been in office longest since they were elected or deemed to be elected."

Shareholders are happy if they vote 'yes' or abstain on the vote, and unhappy if they vote 'no'. That's why the system exists. Directors offering themselves for re-election is the main method shareholders retain control of a company surely.

Well, I'm sure everyone is hoping that the full year result will be a good one anyway, and then obviously everyone is happy.

Just my own ponderings as always. Disagreements welcome. Interesting that nobody much has posted here since the last result and nor has there been much trading in the market. Are shareholders happy?

[NeverQuestion]

Something itched at me over that result, and I figured it out over the weekend. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

(a) H1 profit result = -500k.
(b) Forecast FY profit result break even = 0m.
(c) So forecast H2 profit result = +500k. (-500 + 500 = 0)

(d) So forecast H2 profit result is an increase on H1 profit of $1m.

(e) H1 revenue is 3m.
(f) Forecast FY revenue = 7m
(g) So forecast H2 revenue is 4m (3m + 4m = 7m) an increase on H1 revenue of $1m.

=> So the H2 forecast is for an extra $1m profit than H1 ... on an extra $1m revenue than H1?


Well, all things are possible, but that would appear to require some significant change between H1 and H2. I've checked this carefully, but I'm only human and would be pleased if someone tells me where I've made a mistake?

And if the FY result is instead another loss, as that maths might seem to imply is possible, will shareholders be happy? Well, we find out easily enough as presumably 2 out of the 3 not-new directors must offer themselves for re-election at the AGM, since the last annual report (https://blis.co.nz/wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Annual-Report-2018.pdf) stated (p13) "One third of the Company’s Directors (rounded, if necessary, to the nearest number) are required to retire and may stand for re-election at every Annual Meeting, with those Directors to retire being those who have been in office longest since they were elected or deemed to be elected."

Shareholders are happy if they vote 'yes' or abstain on the vote, and unhappy if they vote 'no'. That's why the system exists. Directors offering themselves for re-election is the main method shareholders retain control of a company surely.

Well, I'm sure everyone is hoping that the full year result will be a good one anyway, and then obviously everyone is happy.

Just my own ponderings as always. Disagreements welcome. Interesting that nobody much has posted here since the last result and nor has there been much trading in the market. Are shareholders happy?

As long as we are going in the right direction and growing I'm happy to stay. I'm concerned about share price consolidations however. Is this something you see a concern with this company Simla?

[simla]

I would have thought that that would cost the company money and time it has other uses for. It was more or less neutral for Wellington Drive (who did a 1 for 20 consolidation in 2011 (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/5135929/Wellington-Drive-flags-share-consolidation?amp)) as far as I can see, and who were arguably in a somewhat analogous spot to Blis (reduced 1.3b shares to 67m).

I'm not sure that I would describe the table of financial results (a few posts back) as "growing" necessarily.

[simla]

Sorry, did you mean share consolidation or share price consolidation (price corridor presumably you mean)? Ironically, Wellington Drive did both! https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/WDT.NZ/#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiY 2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjEuNzU3MDQ5ODkxNTQwMTMwMiwidm9sdW1 lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyI jp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZ hbHNlLCJtYXJrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30sImFnZ3JlZ2F0aW9uV HlwZSI6Im9obGMiLCJjaGFydFNjYWxlIjoibGluZWFyIiwicGF uZWxzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiO iJXRFQuTloiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MH1 9LCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7ImJhc2UiOiJhbGwiLCJtdWx0aXBsaWVyI joxfSwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp 0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOmZhbHNlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiL CJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOnsiZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSw ic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0sImN1c3RvbVJhb mdlIjpudWxsLCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJXRFQuTlo iLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiV0RULk5aIn0sI nBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJ0aW1 lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJiYXNlIjoiYWxsIiwib XVsdGlwbGllciI6MX19XSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsInN0dWR pZXMiOnsidm9sIHVuZHIiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwia W5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoidm9sIHVuZHIiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoidm9 sIHVuZHIifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiM DYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjRkYzMzNBIn0sInBhbmVsIjo iY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowL jQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19

As to the share price, yes it seems mighty odd to me. Why is nobody either buying or selling much? I personally incline to think people are waiting to see if the board changes have an effect as the underlying financials do not strongly correlate to the share price as far as I read it. Which is why I ponder whether the next AGM might yet hold more interest if the financials do not improve. But who knows what is going on.

Obviously this forum is a place for people to ponder their thoughts out loud?

[NeverQuestion]

Sorry, did you mean share consolidation or share price consolidation (price corridor presumably you mean)? Ironically, Wellington Drive did both! https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/WDT.NZ/#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiY 2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjEuNzU3MDQ5ODkxNTQwMTMwMiwidm9sdW1 lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyI jp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZ hbHNlLCJtYXJrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30sImFnZ3JlZ2F0aW9uV HlwZSI6Im9obGMiLCJjaGFydFNjYWxlIjoibGluZWFyIiwicGF uZWxzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiO iJXRFQuTloiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MH1 9LCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7ImJhc2UiOiJhbGwiLCJtdWx0aXBsaWVyI joxfSwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp 0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOmZhbHNlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiL CJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOnsiZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSw ic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0sImN1c3RvbVJhb mdlIjpudWxsLCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJXRFQuTlo iLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiV0RULk5aIn0sI nBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJ0aW1 lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJiYXNlIjoiYWxsIiwib XVsdGlwbGllciI6MX19XSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsInN0dWR pZXMiOnsidm9sIHVuZHIiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwia W5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoidm9sIHVuZHIiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoidm9 sIHVuZHIifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiM DYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjRkYzMzNBIn0sInBhbmVsIjo iY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowL jQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19

As to the share price, yes it seems mighty odd to me. Why is nobody either buying or selling much? I personally incline to think people are waiting to see if the board changes have an effect as the underlying financials do not strongly correlate to the share price as far as I read it. Which is why I ponder whether the next AGM might yet hold more interest if the financials do not improve. But who knows what is going on.

Obviously this forum is a place for people to ponder their thoughts out loud?

Thanks Simla! Insightful as always!

[Leftfield]

.............. As to the share price, yes it seems mighty odd to me. Why is nobody either buying or selling much?

I think the sellers left the room long ago on this one. For every one else its seen as a "bottom draw" share (and good luck with that.)

[simla]

I'm not so sure it's that simple, Left Field. Shareholders of Blis have a long history of being very passionate in their backing of this company and it's product. After all, there has just been a huge turnout to vote in Barry against the Board's explicit recommendation. Hardly passive.

I think people are waiting, as I am, for this company to wake up to the specialness of this company and get a sense of urgency going again (just my personal view obviously). The only real path to the future for this company is through profit and yet each new result shows that other priorities got to the head of the queue instead.

So I incline more to think people are not willing to let go but neither do they want to buy in any more.

Me, I just wish the board would make some tough decisions and not just keep turning out the same cheerful status quo story all the time that somehow always leads to the same outcome. The Q2 loss was just the same as the Q1 loss, and yet we are assured that Q3 and Q4 will be quite different. There is just no sense of urgency that I am picking up, no sense of doubt about why profit never seems to eventuate, about why revenue doesn't grow any more.

Hey, just my views as always. Disagreement welcome.

[Arthur]

Perhaps some of the costs for this half have been producing product that will sell in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Last year expenses in the second half were lower than the first, despite $1.2 million in extra sales in the second half. If Belgium, The Netherlands or Poland can get traction breakeven seems possible. Canada appears to still be disappointing, despite medical claims being able to be made. Amazon feedback is very thin at this stage. Positive feedback would not go astray.

[simla]

Perhaps some of the costs for this half have been producing product that will sell in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Perhaps. But inventory is listed as 368k now, 343k in March, and 281k a year ago. Not large variations.

[Arthur]

Inventory will be in the books at cost, margins are good if they can sell the stuff.

[simla]

Well, time to wish everyone a Merry Christmas again.

It was a big year for Blis from my point of view. Two things happened. Half the board are now changed. And the dog didn't bark in the night. Will this lead to an interesting 2019 maybe?

Half the board changed, which means that that half the board are not just assuming the current course is a good idea.

And the dog didn't bark in the night (Sherlock Homes). Once again the financials did not show anything encouraging, to my mind anyway. So the other half of the board might just be starting to ask if the current course is a good idea too, after 3 years of unpromising financials on whatever the current strategy is, which I still cannot personally put my finger on - it is evident by looking at the change in financial result, but I cannot really make it out otherwise myself.

So just maybe the whole board must be starting to say time for change. Well if so, then I'd be looking for 3 things. Most importantly would be a public acknowledgement that it is time for change - nothing ever happens until you nail your flag to the mast. Then they need to think of that change. And then even harder would be to make that happen and turn out profits.

Well, will 2018 be remembered as the year that the dog didn't bark in the night, and that things really started looking up afterwards? Let's see.

Happy New Year one and all.

[fungus pudding]

Well, time to wish everyone a Merry Christmas again.

It was a big year for Blis from my point of view. Two things happened. Half the board are now changed. And the dog didn't bark in the night. Will this lead to an interesting 2019 maybe?

Half the board changed, which means that that half the board are not just assuming the current course is a good idea.



It doesn't mean that at all, although it could be the case. However, Merry Christmas to you too.

Merry Christmas to you too.

[simla]

Quite right, FP. I have always enjoyed your input on this group, so thank you for all that.

And 2019 looking good for the Mainland too, where I recall you saying you live.

Dunedin waterfront development. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/376733/innovative-dunedin-waterfront-plans-inspired-by-nature
And some lovely photos of Dunedin, including NZ's first skyscraper 1910, 7 stories. https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=2134962
Queenstown all go. Personally I think Greater Queenstown will be bigger than Christchurch eventually, though that won't be the Queenstown any of us recognise. https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1233345&page=13
Christchurch still on the up. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106980047/thousands-of-jobs-billions-of-dollars-of-growth--the-new-blueprint-to-revitalise-christchurch

And then Dunedin's own BLT about to find it's feet maybe? Well, I hope so anyway.

:)

[winner69]

Blis going well ...and jeez the next quarter is gunna be HUGE

Revamped Board gave Brian a bit of a hurry up?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BLT/330036/294310.pdf

[GR8DAY]

[QUOTE=winner69;745818]Blis going well ...and jeez the next quarter is gunna be HUGE

Revamped Board gave Brian a bit of a hurry up?



cheers winner!.........finally some positive numbers. Maybe the tide is turning and not before time. Projections being met are the first sign.....go you good thing.....well wakey wakey anyway.

[simla]

=> So the H2 forecast is for an extra $1m profit than H1 ... on an extra $1m revenue than H1?

Well, all things are possible

Well, apparently all things ARE possible. I can only see that is possible if they got quite a lot of extra forward orders, or cut costs strongly, except that they not hinting at either?

"Based on known and expected orders for the final quarter including the first supply for an expanded Australia launch and ongoing supply in line with the northern hemisphere winter, we reaffirm our existing market guidance.

Full financial year (FY19) Guidance - Revenue in excess of $7.0m, an EBITDA in excess of $0.6m and a small net surplus before tax."

I look forward to seeing an explanation of how that was pulled off in May. Or I would like to hear it anyway, even if they do not give it, as it would help shareholders understand what is going on. And assuming it does happen.

But if so, then indeed hope springs eternal.

[simla]

Good that they issued a reasonably meaningful update for the quarter too.

[fungus pudding]

Quite right, FP. I have always enjoyed your input on this group, so thank you for all that.

And 2019 looking good for the Mainland too, where I recall you saying you live.

Dunedin waterfront development. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/376733/innovative-dunedin-waterfront-plans-inspired-by-nature
And some lovely photos of Dunedin, including NZ's first skyscraper 1910, 7 stories. https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=2134962
Queenstown all go. Personally I think Greater Queenstown will be bigger than Christchurch eventually, though that won't be the Queenstown any of us recognise.


:)

A little off topic, but with Queenstown's population sitting around 15,000 and Christchurch at just under 400,000, I can't see that happening while any one alive today will still be on the planet. :D

[GR8DAY]

Well, apparently all things ARE possible. I can only see that is possible if they got quite a lot of extra forward orders, or cut costs strongly, except that they not hinting at either?

"Based on known and expected orders for the final quarter including the first supply for an expanded Australia launch and ongoing supply in line with the northern hemisphere winter, we reaffirm our existing market guidance.

Full financial year (FY19) Guidance - Revenue in excess of $7.0m, an EBITDA in excess of $0.6m and a small net surplus before tax."

I look forward to seeing an explanation of how that was pulled off in May. Or I would like to hear it anyway, even if they do not give it, as it would help shareholders understand what is going on. And assuming it does happen.

But if so, then indeed hope springs eternal.

Hi Simla......I think they're indicating the "forward" orders from unfulfilled December orders? So this bodes well for Q4 with January off to a good start (i presume).......the Australian launch orders will be adding to this revenue so lets hope Brian is being conservative. Maybe $8m turnover for the year?

[simla]

Yes, quite possible Gr8day. If this happens, then Blis is back in the game, which is a relief. Great. But also there is still a serious tactical problem to solve even so going forward. But at least Blis watching has become interesting again. The board will certainly be gnashing their teeth at just how to respond to merely breaking even with revenue of $8m even if it happens. Interesting times still ahead from my perspective. Most interesting to watch. I do have a (pretty small) shareholding still.

[GR8DAY]

.........agree Simla. The first issue they need to solve is supply........fancy not being in a position to fill orders like that. Pretty poor management so lets hope they've got their act together now for the up coming ozzy re-launch. Good thing tho they were able to roll those orders over into January. Having said all that i "feel" that things are in fact coming together and Barrys influence may? be paying dividends? I think you had better jump back in Simla and grab those 1.3m @ 1.8c b4 someone else does!! (tempted myself)......might be the last chance at to get a reasonable number at this price.

[simla]

Hmm. I think this is potentially good news, sure. But I feel the management of the company over the last few years has not communicated a clear and strong strategy to shareholders, and neither has that been self-evident in the financials. So how are shareholders meant to develop a sense of confidence then?

Although there has been a new CEO in that time, the management of the company is also firmly in the hands of the board. Neither seems to have opened strong lines of communication with the shareholders, from where I've been sitting anyway. For instance, it is good that we just got an update, but it was only about 10 sentences, and did not give us much vision of the state of the game other than the expected financial result in just a few weeks time. Not exactly broad brush.

So I would be reluctant to call much change of future outlook until we see evidence that the board has a clear idea of what it wants to do now and manages to communicate that clearly to the shareholders, along with an indication of how they will get there.

All of that is just my own view obviously, and I never claim to be right, and I always welcome contrary points of view.

[pierre]

My life with Blis ( I'm feeling a bit musical today - thanks Frank)

I've been up and down and over and out
And I know one thing
Each time I find myself flat on my face
I pick myself up and get back in the race

That's life (that's life) I tell ya, I can't deny it
I thought of quitting, baby
But my heart just ain't gonna buy it
And if I didn't think it was worth one single try
I'd jump right on a big bird and then I'd fly

[simla]

Here's the more enthusiastic version from Westlife. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GoYvAcGxSY

[winner69]

Blis on a roll ....big deal into Australia ...game changer?

No mention of the ginger lollies ...do they still make them

https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/blt.nzx/332550/BLT_BLT_confirms_expanded_launch_into_the_Australi an_market.pdf?bearer=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6I kpXVCJ9.eyJzY29wZSI6WyJndWVzdHMiLCJ1c2VycyJdLCJuYm YiOjE1NTM2Mzc1NTEsImV4cCI6MTU1MzYzODQ1MSwiaXNzIjoi c3RvY2tuZXNzIiwibm9uY2UiOiIzOGU4YTVhYzNkNzI0MmQ0Ii wiaWF0IjoxNTUzNjM3NTUxLCJzdWIiOjc4OTY5NX0.1WpBGBf1 lZ1Se6T7e4_3Q2TVJtdzbjpXpYfInE3jMvQ

[GR8DAY]

Could well be W69.......sounds like iNova have fingers in many pies in regard distribution.....so NOT only re-launching with this new partner in Ozzy but other countries as well. Good to see they're not sitting on their hands but actively pushing ahead. We need more and regular news like this please.


Mr Watson added "While our initial focus has been to finalise the launch into
the Australian market we are also exploring opportunities for the next phase
of our expansion into select new markets across Asia and Africa for which
iNova is our exclusive distribution partner."

[artemis]

.... No mention of the ginger lollies ...do they still make them...

If you mean HoneyBlis with ginger, yes they do still make them. I bought some last week (along with a good supply of ToothGuard).

Reminder that there is quite a decent discount for shareholders when buying direct.

[Golfer01]

Mildly disappointed that we haven't seen some buying interest today... Perhaps it's considered as only Australia??? If it was China then it might be a different story.... My eternal optimism will continue as its done for the last 20 yrs....

[pierre]

Mildly disappointed that we haven't seen some buying interest today... Perhaps it's considered as only Australia??? If it was China then it might be a different story.... My eternal optimism will continue as its done for the last 20 yrs....


We might see a bit of a lift in the first quarter of the new financial year with the sell-in to the Aussie distributor followed by sales out to the pharmacies. What happens at retail will determine the outcome though.
With any luck, an update in July could see the SP move a little so that it has a 2 in front at least!


Getting traction in Asia is the real key to growth. Despite all the fluff about China a few years back nothing of any consequence appears to have happened. Let's hope it's not another 20 years before BLT turns the corner in a meaningful and consistent way.

[winner69]

One of the miracles of all time — A PROFIT UPGRADE FOR BLIS

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BLT/332726/297682.pdf

Share price might get to 3 cents this year if this continues

[stoploss]

One of the miracles of all time — A PROFIT UPGRADE FOR BLIS

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BLT/332726/297682.pdf

Share price might get to 3 cents this year if this continues
Is it an April Fools article ?

[winner69]

Is it an April Fools article ?

No serious stuff (I think) mate

[winner69]

With a profit we’ll be able to apply a PE now to see if it’s cheap

[pierre]

We might see a bit of a lift in the first quarter of the new financial year with the sell-in to the Aussie distributor followed by sales out to the pharmacies. What happens at retail will determine the outcome though.
With any luck, an update in July could see the SP move a little so that it has a 2 in front at least!




Well, well - an update in April (even if it is April 1) and a positive one at that. The first quarter update should be even better - especially if it's a cold miserable winter in Oz with lots of sore throats.

Meanwhile I'm still taking Toothguard daily to assist my own oral health and my periodontist continues to be amazed at the result.

[winner69]

[/LEFT]

Well, well - an update in April (even if it is April 1) and a positive one at that. The first quarter update should be even better - especially if it's a cold miserable winter in Oz with lots of sore throats.

Meanwhile I'm still taking Toothguard daily to assist my own oral health and my periodontist continues to be amazed at the result.

Hope it’s not affecting other parts of the body

[suse]

Oh some good news at last. HOwever the way the market seems to react to good news lately I dont expect we will see much of a change in the SP.

[artemis]

There were some encouraging results here and in Italy about BLiS and reduction in strep throat in children. Important because a few lead on to rheumatic fever. Only a few but they are seriously long term expensive. Maybe the company is quietly undertaking further trials. Anyone know?

[GR8DAY]

One of the miracles of all time — A PROFIT UPGRADE FOR BLIS

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BLT/332726/297682.pdf

Share price might get to 3 cents this year if this continues


.........is this the start of the turnaround we've all been waiting for? Maybe the new management style is now paying dividends (wouldnt that be nice) . Pleased to have hung in there and lets hope we see a repeat of the Wellington Drive story. A 3c SPrice is surely on the cards now........????????????

[simla]

Is this good news? Unarguably. Well done.

Does this represent a new trend. Possibly, a bit early to know. Is it a result of just a single big order? Possibly? Is it a result of a big change in the board? Possibly, we won't hear.

However, I do not see how this could have happened without some serious work on costs too. In this post, I couldn't see how they could break even on $7m with existing costs:


Something itched at me over that result, and I figured it out over the weekend. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326966

(a) H1 profit result = -500k.
(b) Forecast FY profit result break even = 0m.
(c) So forecast H2 profit result = +500k. (-500 + 500 = 0)

(d) So forecast H2 profit result is an increase on H1 profit of $1m.

(e) H1 revenue is 3m.
(f) Forecast FY revenue = 7m
(g) So forecast H2 revenue is 4m (3m + 4m = 7m) an increase on H1 revenue of $1m.

=> So the H2 forecast is for an extra $1m profit than H1 ... on an extra $1m revenue than H1?


So I think there has to have been some work on costs, but cannot say for sure. If so, then maybe the sap is starting to rise again after all? If the next half is positive too, then there may some partying yet.

Anyway, definitely good news and congrats to all.

[pierre]

With any luck, an update in July could see the SP move a little so that it has a 2 in front at least!



That 2 in front is going to happen this morning - might just be an initial rush of blood to a few heads though.

[GR8DAY]

....hopefully we'll never see sub 2c again and also hopefully it wont be that long till sub-3c is a distant memory too!! (born optimist) ..........didnt we have a 6 in front for a while?

[pierre]

....hopefully we'll never see sub 2c again and also hopefully it wont be that long till sub-3c is a distant memory too!! (born optimist) ..........didnt we have a 6 in front for a while?


Currently there's one seller asking 2.2 … and another born optimist asking 4c cents!

[golden city]

It looks like a turning the corner results. Can’t resisting got in this morning for a play

[fungus pudding]

Currently there's one seller asking 2.2 … and another born optimist asking 4c cents!

Ah? But was he born that way or was he driven to optimism through blind desperation?

[CD_CHCH]

It will need to hit 3 cents and carry on upwards past 4 cents before I break even but seeing a share price starting with a 2 is a good start

[pierre]

That was a nice little flurry with BLT today - hope it holds. I'm now nicely in the black and am encouraged by the potential for further growth in the Aussie market.

Of course, it all depends on the marketing and the market acceptance of the products, but fingers crossed that Blis now has a distributor with some grunt.

The update following the end of the first quarter of the new financial year will tell us whether this is real progress - or just another disappointing chapter in the endless BLT saga.

Meantime, I'm hanging in as I have for 14 years now. Patience grasshopper!

[GR8DAY]

Bonjour PIERRE............Im with you on this though maybe a little more optimistic! I've got a strong gut feeling that the tide has finally turned for BLT and only positive news lies ahead. The new distributor iNova Pharmaceuticals looks very solid and "well connected"......you can bet your bottom dollar they would have well researched the product from all angles before committing to distributorship and all its implications. Im personally picking 2019 as a water-shed year for the company with growth in revenue not seen before. Inova will push Blis into Australia, Asia and Africa. NZ is now being catered to through Radiance Health. All these agreements have taken time and energy to bring together so onwards and upwards from here. Good work directors I say and lets hope for more and regular updates.

[GR8DAY]

.......I see also that iNova has an "indirect" link into China so who knows where this will take us.

"Blis Technologies Limited today confirmed it has entered into a distribution agreement with iNova
Pharmaceuticals (Singapore) Pte Ltd for the distribution of BLIS branded products. iNova
Pharmaceuticals is a multinational pharmaceutical and consumer health care company that markets
and sells a wide range of market-leading products in over 20 countries across Asia-Pacific and Africa."

[pierre]

Hi Gr8day.
Looks like plenty of others now share your enthusiasm for BLT - a 50% improvement in the SP over a couple of days is pretty exciting.

I'm very hopeful this is the turning point for the business but am being cautious having been burnt with false promises in the past.

If the distribution arrangement in Oz works well then it should be a solid foundation for moves into the other markets.
Onwards and upwards - with fingers and legs crossed for ongoing success.

[whatsup]

Great to see the S P rise a little today and holding its gains, if it does at the end of trade today then to me it says that BLT is not regarded as a play thing for D Ters .

Even though this ann is a teaser the real ann is due at the end of May when the yearly results will be reported.

[GR8DAY]

Great to see the S P rise a little today and holding its gains, if it does at the end of trade today then to me it says that BLT is not regarded as a play thing for D Ters .

Even though this ann is a teaser the real ann is due at the end of May when the yearly results will be reported.


SPrice got nailed over the last couple of years due primarily to lack of positive news and direction.....thus 1.7/1.8c. It appears now that decisions have been made at board level resulting in new agreements for distribution.......this is already showing up as increased revenue, so this "should" only get better from here on in IMHO. No doubt there will be hiccups along the way but that comes with the territory I guess. Yep good to see the rerated SP holding .......long way to go for some though.....3c may come faster than first thought. 2019 may? be the year for BLT to finally get it's act together......here's hoping.

[pierre]

Here are some very rough maths to estimate the impact of the new BLT distribution deal in Oz. This is just my absolute stab in the dark so your alternative view is welcomed.

Initial sell-in to 5000 Aussie pharmacies generated (say) $1.5million in sales to BLT in FY19 just ended
(hopefully this is conservative).

The product goes Ok in the market and repeat purchases over the next 12 months generate say $5 million in new sales to the end of FY20.

What is the net income gain for BLT for FY20? Well, if most overhead costs are already covered, then 20-25% net on those sales should be reasonably achievable.

With a few other tail winds we might possibly be looking at an FY20 NPBT in the order of $1.5m to $2.0m. What do you think?

Meantime, I've just ordered some more Toothguard online as my contribution to the coming year's result.

[GR8DAY]

Here are some very rough maths to estimate the impact of the new BLT distribution deal in Oz. This is just my absolute stab in the dark so your alternative view is welcomed.

Initial sell-in to 5000 Aussie pharmacies generated (say) $1.5million in sales to BLT in FY19 just ended
(hopefully this is conservative).

The product goes Ok in the market and repeat purchases over the next 12 months generate say $5 million in new sales to the end of FY20.

What is the net income gain for BLT for FY20? Well, if most overhead costs are already covered, then 20-25% net on those sales should be reasonably achievable.

With a few other tail winds we might possibly be looking at an FY20 NPBT in the order of $1.5m to $2.0m. What do you think?

Meantime, I've just ordered some more Toothguard online as my contribution to the coming year's result.


..........all very doable I'd think Pierre. But that's just Oz so you might have to be adding into that further sales made in other countries, if that's achieved by FY20? ( I doubt iNOVA will be sitting on their laurels waiting to see how the products go just in Oz, surely they'll be marketing/distributing into Asia/Africa ASAP?) Exciting times ahead for Blis........just hope we're kept in the loop with REGULAR UPDATES. !!

[fungus pudding]

Here are some very rough maths to estimate the impact of the new BLT distribution deal in Oz. This is just my absolute stab in the dark so your alternative view is welcomed.

Initial sell-in to 5000 Aussie pharmacies generated (say) $1.5million in sales to BLT in FY19 just ended
(hopefully this is conservative).

The product goes Ok in the market and repeat purchases over the next 12 months generate say $5 million in new sales to the end of FY20.

What is the net income gain for BLT for FY20? Well, if most overhead costs are already covered, then 20-25% net on those sales should be reasonably achievable.

With a few other tail winds we might possibly be looking at an FY20 NPBT in the order of $1.5m to $2.0m. What do you think?

Meantime, I've just ordered some more Toothguard online as my contribution to the coming year's result.

As a non-invested, casual observer of Blis, I'd question the assumption that the product will go well in the market. Has it ever gone well in any market?

[pierre]

As a non-invested, casual observer of Blis, I'd question the assumption that the product will go well in the market. Has it ever gone well in any market?

Fair enough question from a totally cynical perspective, however, I only suggested that "the product goes OK in the market" - not well.

Total revenue in FY19 excluding Oz was around $7m so the products ARE being sold elsewhere.

For easy maths, let's assume a cost price per unit sold of $10. To generate $5 million of sales for BLT requires 5000 pharmacies to purchase an average of 100 units each over 12 months - that's 2 units per week per outlet. That's not exactly phenomenal market penetration, so volume in that order would appear to be feasible in a market of +/-25 million people.

Once again, these are very rough calculations, and done with no knowledge whatsoever of costs and margins.

My numbers are purely guesstimates and it will be interesting to see how things proceed this year. Some quarterly updates will be well received and hopefully will support an increasing SP over the next 12 months (though I note the hysteria of the past couple of days has subsided a little this morning - as expected).


As Gr8Day says, there are other market opportunities too with iNOVA that are not factored into my calculations.

I'm still very cautious (i.e. not investing any further) but optimistic that the iNOVA tie-up just might be a significant development for BLT.

[Arthur]

If Aussie goes half as well as NZ it will bring in about 2 million. Many NZ companies have crashed and burned on that sort of assumption. I am cautious as Canada should be selling truckloads - they can legally claim it works in Canada, but still relatively poor sales. In Italy their research suggests mega sales are possible, but still no significant sales traction. In Italy and Canada alone I had hoped with those strong tailwinds sales would top $20 million(which would roughly equate to their NZ sales per capita). I would like to be wrong, but I doubt Aussie sales will be as much as the NZ ones. Hopefully Canada and Italy are just slow starters, but building momentum.

[GR8DAY]

If Aussie goes half as well as NZ it will bring in about 2 million. Many NZ companies have crashed and burned on that sort of assumption. I am cautious as Canada should be selling truckloads - they can legally claim it works in Canada, but still relatively poor sales. In Italy their research suggests mega sales are possible, but still no significant sales traction. In Italy and Canada alone I had hoped with those strong tailwinds sales would top $20 million(which would roughly equate to their NZ sales per capita). I would like to be wrong, but I doubt Aussie sales will be as much as the NZ ones. Hopefully Canada and Italy are just slow starters, but building momentum.


.......NOT SURE I AGREE with your statement ARTHUR that Oz may not be as big as NZ sales? Apart from the obvious population numbers Oz have those Mega pharmacy chains everywhere now (incl in supermarkets) . The Ozzies appear to be big on supplements (they cant grow there own veges etc like we can?). So I guess Blis may soon be on those shelves in a bigger way through iNOVA .....the big difference though is BLIS will be/IS the main player in ORAL Probiotics. There may be some other different product there already but they will contain BLIS ingredients anyway (M12/M18) so we will be getting a double whammy effect from the iNOVA marketing push. Just my thoughts.......clearly I'm optimistic going forward.

[artemis]

I think Blis probiotics are more of a slow burn item. If you look on Amazon for K12 and M18 there are quite a few products containing them under various brand names, but the number of reviews is still quite low.

Quite a few reviews mention curing persistent bad breath, has to be a powerful selling point.

[pierre]

Nice to see independent BLT Director Alison Stewart now has some skin in the game. Probably only enough to cover her pinky finger - but it's a start in the right direction - and made after the FY19 upgrade announcement.

[whatsup]

Back to its recent highs, where to from here , building we hope as its been a very long road.

[GR8DAY]

Good to see yet another director (Geoffrey plunkett) choosing to get a bit of skin in the game by purchasing 800,000 shares on market. Rising SP playing catch-up now .

[Grimy]

I see Tooth Guard and Honey Bliss (Ginger) are listed as out of stock on the web site. Not sure if that's a good or bad sign (poor stock control -or excellent recent sales)?

[artemis]

I see Tooth Guard and Honey Bliss (Ginger) are listed as out of stock on the web site. Not sure if that's a good or bad sign (poor stock control -or excellent recent sales)?

Could be a combination, but anyway not a good look.

I bought both last month via the website, so out of stock is recent.

[winner69]

Could be a combination, but anyway not a good look.

I bought both last month via the website, so out of stock is recent.

Deficient marketing and now supply chain not so good

Scientists never make good business people

[fungus pudding]

Deficient marketing and now supply chain not so good

Scientists never make good business people

Some of them don't even make good scientists. :D

[kiwidollabill]

Deficient marketing and now supply chain not so good

Scientists never make good business people

I dispute that claim! :)

[THEONE]

https://blis.co.nz/news/blis-in-the-news/blis-the-official-wellness-partner-highlanders

[GR8DAY]

Clever relationship marketing!...high end athletes are indeed prone to mouth and throat ailments due to the physical stress overload they put themselves under (I know this as we have one in the family lol). ...and to have a specific product for athletes just shows the new board are being proactive in their marketing... got to be encouraging.

[winner69]

Hope it improves the Highlanders performance

Worst team in NZ at the moment

[Arthur]

I see Tooth Guard and Honey Bliss (Ginger) are listed as out of stock on the web site. Not sure if that's a good or bad sign (poor stock control -or excellent recent sales)?

When I had a quick look they seemed to be available. Did you email the company?Was it at checkout? or on the order page? Ive found a pharmacy that seems to offer a discount, so seldom order online anymore.

[Grimy]

Honey Bliss with Ginger is still showing out of stock when you hover the cursor over the product on the "shop products" page. Tooth Guard showing in stock now.
No I didn't email them, didn't want any, was just looking around the site and noticed the "out of stock" on those couple of items.

[Chippie]

I went to the local pharmacy in Johnsonville (Wgrn). Asked about Blis and the assistant said there has been alot of interest and had good knowledge on the product. They were down to last 2 packets of honey blis

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2019/04/16/BLIS-plans-further-NPD-and-APAC-expansion-on-back-of-good-performance-and-TGA-approval?utm_source=copyright&utm_medium=OnSite&utm_campaign=copyright

Might need to copy and paste into browser

[GR8DAY]

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=5014756

.....and the good news keeps coming! This could become significant......as they rightly say GRAS is recognized in many countries besides the US. Positive positive going forward. Keep it coming directors please.......that feel good fuzzy feeling is starting to return.

[pierre]

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=5014756

.....and the good news keeps coming! This could become significant......as they rightly say GRAS is recognized in many countries besides the US. Positive positive going forward. Keep it coming directors please.......that feel good fuzzy feeling is starting to return.

Looking good Gr8day - maybe a 3 in front before too long?

[GR8DAY]

Looking good Gr8day - maybe a 3 in front before too long?

......I dont doubt it for a moment Pierre (hope so anyway). A good run of good news is boding well for future revenue growth IMHO.

[whatsup]

BLT on the move again , if the opening quotes hold .

[GR8DAY]

BLT on the move again , if the opening quotes hold .

Big difference this time I think WA..........steady weekly gains in SP without the retractions of last time. Some better fundamentals under pinning it now..... Still a long way back to 6c but who knows.

[whatsup]

Big difference this time I think WA..........steady weekly gains in SP without the retractions of last time. Some better fundamentals under pinning it now..... Still a long way back to 6c but who knows.

IMO if BLT hits its sales numbers it will come to the notice of big pharma ( if it is not already on their radar ! ).

[haewai]

Some better fundamentals under pinning it now.....


What fundamentals are those? Increased revenue? Reduced costs? Increased margin?

[GR8DAY]

What fundamentals are those? Increased revenue? Reduced costs? Increased margin?

......yes all the above I believe HAEWAI plus a new distribution partner (iNova) plus recently announced GRAS approval for the US.

[pg0220]

......yes all the above I believe HAEWAI plus a new distribution partner (iNova) plus recently announced GRAS approval for the US.
I wasn't quite sure what GRAS and googled about it. Skim read an article below - note that it was from 2015 though - and it didn't sound like a big deal.... If you have any idea how significant it is to get an no-object from GRAS, please enlighten me.

Forgot a link to the article: https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2015/04/14/399591292/why-the-fda-is-clueless-about-some-of-the-additives-in-our-food

[haewai]

......yes all the above I believe HAEWAI plus a new distribution partner (iNova) plus recently announced GRAS approval for the US.

Your 'beliefs' must be rock solid to expect a PER to increase from nearly 100.

[GR8DAY]

[QUOTE=pg0220;756692]I wasn't quite sure what GRAS and googled about it. Skim read an article below - note that it was from 2015 though - and it didn't sound like a big deal.... If you have any idea how significant it is to get an no-object from GRAS, please enlighten me.




.........more than happy to enlighten. Lates GRAS announcement was a few days ago not 2015. (read latest news release ) " Could" be significant I think I said...........ie GRAS approval for the US gets recognition world wide.

[GR8DAY]

Your 'beliefs' must be rock solid to expect a PER to increase from nearly 100.

.......yes they are. Rather than consider PEs which are non-relevant to a company like BLT (state of turnaround) you need to consider growth factors over the last couple of years. Every arrow points north and some are in the relam of 30-40% . Good luck with your studies and research HAEWAI.....hope your'e on board.

[whatsup]

Nice purchase of 1,000,000 shares bought @ .03.

[GR8DAY]

Nice purchase of 1,000,000 shares bought @ .03.


.....welcome to the fold whoever that was!

[simla]

Great to see a spring in the company's step.

It would be great to see information in the next report giving a very much clearer picture of the gross profit margin. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the gross profit margin is pretty thin, since the revenue goes up but the profit doesn't change much. I've talked of controlling costs in the past, but I'm starting to wonder if the sale price simply needs increasing, so that the gross profit margin increases. I have compared BLT with Wellington Drive a bit lately, and they openly discuss their gross profit margin all the time and are always trying to improve it. BLT never discuss gross profit margin in their reports that I recall, but I presume they regularly discuss it internally anyway, being a manufacturing company. Distributors may not like the idea of a price rise, but it would presumably increase their profit too and thus their enthusiasm to push the product?

Shareholders always too like to know if the company has changed direction in any way. A lot of my frustration for the last few years was not personally being able to detect what direction the company was moving in. If a big change of directors at board level has resulted in some sort of change in direction, as might be wondered in light of recent news, then it would be desirable for shareholders to know what changes they are seeing now.

Anyway, a maiden full year profit is a good thing, and presumably there was positive cash flow too.

[GR8DAY]

.......all on track I believe SIMLA (good to have you back). There's a degree of positivity apparent now with the new Distributor iNova signed up and no doubt working hard on our behalf to promote product. I'm quietly hopeful we are sitting on the cusp of a turnaround...not unlike the WDT story you refer to. (Im a holder in both) The latest news releases give me further hope of things on the improve. Pleased to have " hung in there" for the previous couple of years while in the doldrums.

[simla]

Be good to see the full report obviously.

By the way, I was talking about concentrating on the gross margin % rather than the gross margin $. Obviously the gross margin $ can go up quite easily, but getting the gross margin % up is the real key in the long run, and is also the one that WDT constantly discusses as their guiding objective.

[pierre]

The interest in BLT continues with a further 10% upwards movement today to 3.3.

Let's hope the market is not getting too far ahead of itself - we still need to see some real information from the company. Maybe we will get a market update at the time the annual report is released next month - was 18 May last year.

@Simla - suggest you email brian.watson@blis.co.nz with the matters you'd like an answer to and ask for them to be addressed in the update report. You might not get everything you want but maybe enlightenment on some of them.


EDIT: Now back to 3.2 - obviously someone got a bit over-excited earlier (probably including me!)

FURTHER EDIT: Back to 3.0 - definitely over-excitement this afternoon!

[fungus pudding]

Be good to see the full report obviously.

By the way, I was talking about concentrating on the gross margin % rather than the gross margin $. Obviously the gross margin $ can go up quite easily, but getting the gross margin % up is the real key in the long run, and is also the one that WDT constantly discusses as their guiding objective.

To a large degree they will rise (and fall) with each other.

[simla]

Hi, FP. No, I mean as follows: Revenue $10m, cost of goods sold $9m, then gross profit = $1m, gross profit margin = 10%. But revenue $10m, cost of goods sold $8m, then gross profit margin = 20%. Obviously then a higher gross margin is a larger multiplier on change in revenue. Hence my concern about whether BLT is exhibiting a pretty restrained gross margin %, since the profit does not seem to increase a whole lot as revenue increases (as I am reading it anyway), and whether therefore maybe it is time to consider raising prices rather than just going for increases in volume that seem to be hard work to come by? So in this example, revenue $11m (increase price by 10%) and costs of goods sold = $9m as before, then gross profit = $2m, gross margin = 18%.

Since we do not seem to be seeing on historical figures that the cost of goods sold can be reduced per $m of revenue (as I read the accounts anyway, costs do not seem to reduce so far), raising the gross margin would be instead achieved by raising the price on the same volume (subject to lost sales obviously). Obviously that involves a judgement call though. Just wondering out loud.

[GR8DAY]

The interest in BLT continues with a further 10% upwards movement today to 3.3.

Let's hope the market is not getting too far ahead of itself - we still need to see some real information from the company. Maybe we will get a market update at the time the annual report is released next month - was 18 May last year.

@Simla - suggest you email brian.watson@blis.co.nz with the matters you'd like an answer to and ask for them to be addressed in the update report. You might not get everything you want but maybe enlightenment on some of them.


EDIT: Now back to 3.2 - obviously someone got a bit over-excited earlier (probably including me!)

FURTHER EDIT: Back to 3.0 - definitely over-excitement this afternoon!




VWAP= nearly 3.2c (a mere 22k ended the day at 3c but also 149k thru at 3.3c) ........so another reasonable day of price re-valuing. These small daily/weekly gains of .1/.2c are a healthy sign I believe that a sustainable turn-around is being factored in here.......fingers crossed I'm right.

[patrick]

Re margins,
Pharmacy Direct Au sell Daily Defence for $11 and in NZ for $13.95.

[GR8DAY]

Woohoo..... yet more positive news ... released just 1hr ago. Full regulatory approval been granted for BLIS into the huge and wealthy Canadian market. Significant labelling claims also approved. Congrats directors keep up the good work....SP starting to reflect your efforts..

[Arthur]

Woohoo..... yet more positive news ... released just 1hr ago. Full regulatory approval been granted for BLIS into the huge and wealthy Canadian market. Significant labelling claims also approved. Congrats directors keep up the good work....SP starting to reflect your efforts..
Lets hope they run with it this time. Canada gave similar approval to K12 years ago. They also had that awesome chewing gum. It's hard to understand why sales are not over $10 million in Canada alone.

[whatsup]

Woohoo..... yet more positive news ... released just 1hr ago. Full regulatory approval been granted for BLIS into the huge and wealthy Canadian market. Significant labelling claims also approved. Congrats directors keep up the good work....SP starting to reflect your efforts..

More interest today, looks like BLT has passed the valley of death ( at last ! ).

[THEONE]

https://www.chemistwarehouse.com.au/buy/91062/difflam-first-sign-defence-probiotic-30-lozenges
Difflam with Blis K12

[whatsup]

Seems to me that the BLT story is getting out there and slow buying is taking place with more good news to come something, watch this space !

[GR8DAY]

Lets hope they run with it this time. Canada gave similar approval to K12 years ago. They also had that awesome chewing gum. It's hard to understand why sales are not over $10 million in Canada alone.

.......I wonder if iNova will be responsible for Canada as well........can anyone confirm this? Canada could/should be a very profitable market for Blis so lets hope it is really promoted well wether it is through our own BLIS brand or as ingredients for other brands. Be nice to know the answers to those questions. Onwards and upwards either way.......goodtimes ahead Im thinking.

[artemis]

$12 million to be allocated in the Budget to combat rheumatic fever. I hope BLT puts its hand up to run a pilot or two, given they had good results from strep throat trials in BoP and Italy.

However, given the funding is targeted at Maori and Pasifika communities, and is to be community led, much more likely the money will be spent on paying people to go to schools and do all the paperwork. Rather than using the biotech and teachers, which is almost certainly cheaper than hiring people, support staff, vehicles etc etc.

[GR8DAY]

Further good news. There is strong research and evidence showing the efficacy (of BLIS K12) in preventing Strep Throat and thus RFever. Here is just one link: (copy&paste http://business.scoop.co.nz/2017/02/13/study-results-show-probiotic-helps-prevent-rheumatic-fever/) Our directors must really jump at this opportunity to secure some of this funding and at the same time show the world that a possible solution to preventing this debilitating disease (RF) could be steering them in the face (so to speak).

[GR8DAY]

http://www.hrc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/HRC18%20(Moffatt%20%20Tagg)%20Updated%20.pdf

[Bjauck]

http://www.hrc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/HRC18%20(Moffatt%20%20Tagg)%20Updated%20.pdf
Thanks for the link. I am regretting already that I reduced my holding....
Bliss SP is a roller coaster though.

[haewai]

Published in 2014. Even then the anticipation... The company is now on the verge of breaking intooverseas markets in Europe, Asia, the USA and Australia.

[Sgt Pepper]

Just arrived home from my Dentist. At the end of the appoinment i asked her what she thought of Blis probiotic toothguard. She was enthusiastic about it and recalled Professor Jim Tagg presenting a talk on his discovery of BLIS, (Bacteriocidal Inhibitory Substances) BLIS needs some serious marketing $$

[artemis]

Just arrived home from my Dentist. At the end of the appoinment i asked her what she thought of Blis probiotic toothguard. She was enthusiastic about it and recalled Professor Jim Tagg presenting a talk on his discovery of BLIS, (Bacteriocidal Inhibitory Substances) BLIS needs some serious marketing $$

I mentioned to both my dentist and my oral surgeon couple of weeks back. Both knew about K12 but surprisingly not M18. I think they will both follow up.

[suse]

I've just been reading the rags to riches tale of ATM and wondered, does anyone think Blis could ever get to the same point? I've been in a while but recently sold a chunk (at quite a loss) to fund something else, so only a handful of shares now. I'd like to think one day that handful will redeem itself

[whatsup]

BLT results to be announced on 28 th May, what are we expecting ?

[simla]

I'm already impressed that they announced a results date in advance. Could we possibly be going back to the old days, where the good news just kept rolling? Hmm, early days, but that was a polished touch.

[Drew95]

BLT results to be announced on 28 th May, what are we expecting ?

To 31 March 19: Revenue $6.9 Mill P/L = Breakeven

From the HY report 30 Sept 2018:

"All regions and channels experiencing at least double-digit growth over the same period last year.

Australasian sales grew by 44% to $697k in HY19, $213k higher than HY18 ($484k).
Sales in Asia of $487k show a growth of $267k compared to HY18 ($220k), being a 121% increase.
North American ingredients sales increased 41% to $437k during HY19 compared with sales in HY18 ($310k).
Amazon USA sales have been building consistently andfurther campaign activity is planned for the range but particularly the throat health products in line with the USAwinter.
Total expenses of $3,552k in HY19 were 7% up on HY18"


Disc: Holder/ Accumulator.

[whatsup]

Inching up ahead of Tuesdays ann , what already is known, do we have a leaky boat here.

[GR8DAY]

Inching up ahead of Tuesdays ann , what already is known, do we have a leaky boat here.

........Im too scared to say anything. Happy to just watch now and see where this ends up. Hope we're not disappointed come Tuesday....fingers crossed.

[Golfer01]

........Im too scared to say anything. Happy to just watch now and see where this ends up. Hope we're not disappointed come Tuesday....fingers crossed.

Somebody in the know or just a punter.... Hopefully it's someone in the know.....

[pierre]

Somebody in the know or just a punter.... Hopefully it's someone in the know.....

3.6 million shares have changed hands today and right now there's only one seller with 25k shares on offer at 3.8. There are some keen punters or the news is definitely a lot better than anticipated.

I'll be pretty pleased if the SP gets up to 3.8 - that will show a 100% return on my average cost - patience sometimes pays off. However, I'm not counting any chickens yet - the SP has been a lot higher previously only to come back to earth with a thud.

[Chippie]

We have to be looking at 5 cents if they confirm a profit on Tuesday. They went over 6 last time they talked profit

[Arthur]

We have to be looking at 5 cents if they confirm a profit on Tuesday. They went over 6 last time they talked profit
Directors and management can't trade until after the profit is released

[suse]

well they are up at 4c today so someone is keenly buying. First time I've seen a blue arrow beside what little I have left for a long time.

[whatsup]

Decent lines going through this morning , up 11% + , tomorrows announcement must be very good highest price for 2 years ! if they are close to cash flow positive watch out below, a share consolidation could happen and more appeal to insto investors would be on the cards. .04 could be a very cheap entry imo!

[Golfer01]

Decent lines going through this morning , up 11% + , tomorrows announcement must be very good highest price for 2 years ! if they are close to cash flow positive watch out below, a share consolidation could happen and more appeal to insto investors would be on the cards. .04 could be a very cheap entry imo!

this is the most excited I've been with BLT for 15 years!! Certainly seems to be a little more awareness and promotion with their products at chemist shops. Unsolicited the chemist promoted the product for my daughters sore throat saying it is a great product and would greatly help. Hoping they are cash flow positive so they can further invest in sales and marketing campaigns....

[Sgt Pepper]

this is the most excited I've been with BLT for 15 years!! Certainly seems to be a little more awareness and promotion with their products at chemist shops. Unsolicited the chemist promoted the product for my daughters sore throat saying it is a great product and would greatly help. Hoping they are cash flow positive so they can further invest in sales and marketing campaigns....

Also on the news today the groing concerns on paediatric tooth decay, BLIS Toothguard may the right product at the right time.

[Chippie]

BLT results to be announced on 28 th May, what are we expecting ?

I should have been paying more attention, below is an extract from there announcement on 1st April (day after closing books on FY19). Based on this it must be very close to figures below confirming a maiden profit. But also hoping for an increased forecast for FY20. I should have been buying more on 1st April, or even last week.



"We expect reported revenue for FY19 to be close to $8.3 million, EBITDA close to $0.85 million and a net surplus before tax of around $0.35 million. These figures are subject to completion of the annual audit. This is an increase on the previous guidance for FY19 of revenue in excess of $7.0m, EBITDA in excess of $0.6m and a small net surplus before tax.

Brian Watson, CEO of Blis Technologies said “The revisions are as a result of strong orders from all markets including Australasia, Asia, Europe and North America. Significant additional orders were filled in the last week of March to meet the Australian launch announced last week.”

“Our products are now available on shelves across Australia’s network of over 5,000 pharmacies. Although it is early in the launch of the expanded range we have seen a positive response from pharmacies with significant orders being filled late in the quarter to meet demand. These orders will be captured in our FY19 result and we expect to also see a significant positive impact on financial performance for the new financial year.”

[pierre]

While I am definitely anticipating some positive news from BLT
tomorrow, I do fear that today's excitement may be somewhat overshadowed by the numbers in the actual FY19 result.



"We expect reported revenue for FY19 to be close to $8.3 million, EBITDA close to $0.85 million and a net surplus before tax of around $0.35 million. These figures are subject to completion of the annual audit. This is an increase on the previous guidance for FY19 of revenue in excess of $7.0m, EBITDA in excess of $0.6m and a small net surplus before tax."



Not sure that a company making a profit of 2-3 hundred thousand is really worth $44 million. but stranger things have happened e.g. XRO.

Still, it will be the forward looking commentary that will create the greatest interest and hopefully will justify today's SP action.

The truth is my substantial BLT holding is today showing a gain in excess of 100% and while I'm really just preparing myself for this to drop back a bit tomorrow, I'm also hopeful that the SP surge may hold or increase. I think it's called hedging your bets!

[Leftfield]

Bonne chance Pierre I wish you well today. You have had more patience than me. That said, BLT is a sentimental favourite, and may yet return to my portfolio. Watching with interest.

GLH.

[suse]

Bonne chance Pierre I wish you well today. You have had more patience than me. That said, BLT is a sentimental favourite, and may yet return to my portfolio. Watching with interest.

GLH.
Yes a sentimental favourite for me too, one of the first shares I decided to dabble in. I sold the last of my small holding yesterday to fund other things, but I will continue to watch with interest. They must surely be going to consolidate some time in the future?

[suse]

Interesting
"Key growth opportunities for the company in FY20 include Canada, China cross-border and Daigou markets, market expansion in Asia and Africa with iNova Pharmaceuticals and expansion of our online sales.”

The Daigou market worked very well for ATM.

[simla]

Change:


Negative cash flow, but an increase in working capital, and the cash was recouped shortly after balance date they said (p9).
Profit
A much more informative annual report, absolutely top notch effort.




(000s)2013201420152016201720182019



Revenue1161132226315661654752888406


Total Expenses2959286340046477657163308025



Profit/Loss-1856-1541]-1373-816-24-1042+381


Net cash flow (ex finance)-1110-1324-1516-919-71-358-713


[tr]
Working capital909* 375325191927225315482315* Included share issue


Source: Annual reports. I have checked the figures carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them.

Points of interest:


Made NZ figures available seperately again, good.
Branded product growth finally significant, although it might be possible to view that as mostly the Aus launch maybe?
Next years EDITDA is only projected to match this years (covering announcement)
The level of confidence, despite the patent situation, makes me wonder if they have a nice new product in the pipeline? But that would consume a lot of capital, so who knows. Maybe it is just the branding that is giving the confidence?
"Strong sales growth into Japan" sounds welcome.
Mention of China, admitting it is hard, but looking at "Daigou channels" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daigou


The phrase "cost of goods sold" did appear in the report (p43), but did not appear to actually reveal that. I don't really understand. The fine print (p49) also mentioned "contribution margins pre-personnel costs of 73% (12.5% post tax) have been applied in these projections". Maybe that was useful information (?), and maybe it would imply a good profit if volumes were higher? I don't understand. It would be nice to see some open discussion of the underlying profit maths of the company.

The company still has plenty of challenges ahead, but that report of operations looked a lot tighter, to my eyes at least. Well done indeed.

Nevertheless, I still do not understand what the company sees in the future. The strategy now seems (to me) to resemble the rolling maul, which has been described as "the remorseless progress, with the tryline coming ever closer." Is it a case of relentlessly pushing forward on as many fronts as possible, so that victory is achieved by the simple process of never giving up? Well, obviously that can be very effective if so. But maybe that is the strategy, or maybe something else is. I still did not get a sense of what strategy is the priority of the company. But maybe I'm not reading things right.

Well, as always, that's merely what I saw. Other views always welcome.

[GR8DAY]

.....nicely analysed then summarized SIMLA (if not perhaps OVER analysed!), thanks for putting in the time. I guess we should be celebrating this maiden profit as it is indeed a huge milestone for the company........hopefully just the beginning. I like their use of the word "sustainable" on a couple of occasions........even more so than "maiden profit" to be frank. Lets hope they continue down the current track as it's clearly working and we see a steady growth in both earnings/profit and also the SP (rather than over the top exuberance).

[simla]

Well, Blis finally has a profit and a PE. So ends book two.

Book one was all the hard work done by John Tagg bringing this amazing idea to a feasible result. I wrote to the Honours people a few years ago to nominate him for something, but of course the awards are really for politicians and the like and nothing came of it.

Book two has just completed, and that was about turning the idea into a profitable listed company. What an impressive journey that has been too. World wide markets have been opened and the idea of oral probiotics are now an accepted concept around the world. Amazing. Obviously just a few people did the heavy lifting for that, but we shareholders can nevertheless pat ourselves on the back for standing staunch through some pretty difficult years.

And now book three is an empty book. What does the future hold? Not only is the company hoping to build on the markets it has, but it is looking to expand into other products. No doubt the journey will hold some perilous times, and we hope it will having some wonderful victories obviously.

Gr8day, you obviously look forward to book three. Myself, my story was largely about book two. I am no longer a shareholder, and imagine my involvement in this next journey will be as a spectator. My batteries run lower.

Blis-watching has been, and is, a fascinating sport.

[GR8DAY]

Pity your'e no longer a shareholder SIMLA as you've hung in there for sooooooooo long now.....esp considering that some real progress has recently been made and the Maiden Profit finally arrived! I do believe that the "very good times" are yet to come and quite possibly not that far ahead...........indeed this growth could well become exponential if and when things fall into place (or rather "guided" into place by the new board.....who appear to be working together well in this respect) Im confident to continue with further Share purchases at these levels............6c next stop maybe. Oral probiotics has a very sound future in my opinion and Blis is the world leader. Hope you get back on board again at some stage....till then all the best.

[winner69]

Has the market gone cold on Blis ...back to the low 3s

[Traderwannabe]

Maybe it just needs more news to flow to keep the interest up? But yes disappointing it has fallen to mid 3s

[Sideshow Bob]

Hey, I was just going to try one of their products - anyone got a discount code for the website?? :) If so, please direct message me - thanks.

[artemis]

Hey, I was just going to try one of their products - anyone got a discount code for the website?? :) If so, please direct message me - thanks.

There is a discount for shareholders. They sent it out last year to all shareholders but will email it on request.

[Sideshow Bob]

There is a discount for shareholders. They sent it out last year to all shareholders but will email it on request.

Thanks Artemis - I was trying to be cheeky - as I'm not a holder.

Just wanted to buy from the company than through a pharmacy.....

[TideMan]

K12 is $19 through their website, but only $14 through PharmacyDirect. I won't be buying from the website again.

[Sideshow Bob]

K12 is $19 through their website, but only $14 through PharmacyDirect. I won't be buying from the website again.

Good one TM! I was going to buy Toothguard. $24.95 from Blis, $16.95 on Pharmacy Direct.

I know they can't undercut retailers, but still...….

[pierre]

Explosive marketing campaign from the team at BLT:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12248858

Seriously though, hope everyone is Ok and there is no damage to life, limb, property or the BLT SP.

[emveha]

Not a great publicity, that.

[BlackPeter]

Not a great publicity, that.

Surely - there must be better ways to store and dispose of Hydrazine monohydrate. They might want to review their lab procedures ...

[Grimy]

Not a great publicity, that.
It did remind me I need to buy some Travel Protect...….

[GR8DAY]

.........nothing like a bit of free advertising , good or bad, A whole lotta fuss and over reaction for nothing.............just a convenient practice exercise for the fire department. Hope they pick up some Blis product while they're there ...........nasty business on the throat that fire fighting.

[suse]

.........nothing like a bit of free advertising , good or bad, A whole lotta fuss and over reaction for nothing.............just a convenient practice exercise for the fire department. Hope they pick up some Blis product while they're there ...........nasty business on the throat that fire fighting.

You'd be amazed at how many fire fighters suffer from cancers of the throat .. as well as plenty of other cancers. Sadly I dont think probiotics will help (and I'm a huge believer).

[Arthur]

Awesome first quarter It could be an interesting AGM

[pierre]

A great start to FY20 and the market likes the news - up 16% to 4.3cents. Probably the usual exuberance and over-reaction but a close today with a 4 in front will be nice.

Excellent work from the BLT team and it's fantastic to see the business now emerging from the doldrums of recent years.
I've been keeping the faith since 2005 and over the years have averaged the cost of my substantial holding down to 1.68 so I'm a happy camper today.

Simla- I hope you got back in again!

[dompf]

A great start to FY20 and the market likes the news - up 16% to 4.3cents. Probably the usual exuberance and over-reaction but a close today with a 4 in front will be nice.

Excellent work from the BLT team and it's fantastic to see the business now emerging from the doldrums of recent years.
I've been keeping the faith since 2005 and over the years have averaged the cost of my substantial holding down to 1.68 so I'm a happy camper today.

Simla- I hope you got back in again!

Im a happy holder of these guys, looks like they are going to have a real good year in front of them with a strong Q1 - i was surprised by announcement i haven't been keeping track, I actually like their products hence i bought in to them! again like above hopefully shares finish with a 4 in front at close of business!

[GR8DAY]

........off to a flier for the new financial year. (Q1 revenue up 63% on 2019) Momentum continues, all arrows pointing north and looking like sustained growth remains underway. No question in my mind that things have/are finally coming together nicely esp in light of the growing awareness of probiotics and the attached health benefits. I like also, further research underway in regards new product range eg.... Q24 strain for Skin Care, novel combination of Oral Probiotic with Gut probiotic (surprised it's taken this long?) and further research being done on probiotics for Pets (could be huge)

IMHO the future looks more secure and rosy than ever before. Happy holder/believer.

[RGR367]

........

IMHO the future looks more secure and rosy than ever before. Happy holder/believer.

Yup so I'm returning my paper gain to buy some more of it again.

Wherefore art thou Simla? 'Tis the sign you waited for :t_up:

[Arthur]

The reason EBITDA is forecast to be stable despite the first quarter is that are going for growth rather than profit. Research into new product, new markets and protections around IP will cost some short term profit.
They are enthusiastic about skin and other products being developed.
The new director will be a great addition, but sad to see Veronica go.

[Sgt Pepper]

Yup so I'm returning my paper gain to buy some more of it again.

Wherefore art thou Simla? 'Tis the sign you waited for :t_up:

I arrived 20 minutes late to the AGM as originally thought it was 1pm. Couldn't get in , door was closed and no one at the registration table. Looked through the window but no one took pity, Alas, no blis goody bag for me this year!

[whatsup]

Renewed steady interest again today.

[whatsup]

Another good day for BLT up 9% + !!

[dompf]

I read a lot of this thread I invested in BLT about 6m ago; it looks like they have turned a corner. Again good interest today seems to be more buyers than sellers which is great news hopefully the rest of the year sees steady results.

Happy holder

[whatsup]

Up 14% today highest level for 2 & 1/2 years, truly off the bottom now !

[Leftfield]

I read a lot of this thread I invested in BLT about 6m ago; it looks like they have turned a corner. Again good interest today seems to be more buyers than sellers which is great news hopefully the rest of the year sees steady results.

Happy holder

Good on you and congrats on your gains.

BLT a sentimental fav for me. My first 100% gain when I held 2 mill of these. Freeholded a chunk, then eventually sold out after the Death Cross and Management/Board made a few errors. Did reasonably well and learned heaps.

Bought back in again as the TA and story improved at 3.3 so pretty happy today. Currently a mere 1% of my portfolio so not a high conviction hold....yet. Hopefully this time the pro-biotic story has some legs to it.

[dompf]

Good on you and congrats on your gains.

BLT a sentimental fav for me. My first 100% gain when I held 2 mill of these. Freeholded a chunk, then eventually sold out after the Death Cross and Management/Board made a few errors. Did reasonably well and learned heaps.

Bought back in again as the TA and story improved at 3.3 so pretty happy today. Currently a mere 1% of my portfolio so not a high conviction hold....yet. Hopefully this time the pro-biotic story has some legs to it.

A big thank you for everyone in this forum & thread especially, as reading the commentary and the stages of that this company went through was important to see the overall history that it has already been through, without users and the forum I wouldn't have had that luxury.

[suse]

Advertising honey blis on More FM this morning and running a competition. Should add a bit of interest.

[GR8DAY]

....not to mention some flavour!
(sorry). BLIS seeing a long overdue re rating at present and I won't be surprised to see a 6 in front of SP (again) soon..... only this time the numbers and growth prospects are there to underpin it. Congrats to all long suffering shareholders and also the current board of directors.

[Dorkus]

How long before it goes to $1? Then I can retire.

[suse]

I once thought like this! :) I fear you have a long wait. I first looked at BLT when it was trading under 1c (maybe 7-8 years ago), I bought in around 2 to 3c with a last parcel at 6c. Then I watched the shareprice fall and keep falling. I sold out all recently at a loss as needed the money for something else. But I like to keep my eye on it. YOu never know, I might jump back in once I dont need to be funding a never ending pool of spending (new house and garden)

[GR8DAY]

How long before it goes to $1? Then I can retire.

LOL, who knows DORKUS........I guess anything is possible. I mean if you'd told someone in 2015 (or thereabouts) that the then 60c ATM shares are going to be worth $18 in 2019 they would have laughed you off the face of the earth!! (funny thing is we're in the same industry offering longterm health benefits)

[davflaws]

How long before it goes to $1? Then I can retire.

You and me both!

[Sgt Pepper]

Share consolidation must be on the cards sometime??

[pierre]

Share consolidation must be on the cards sometime??
I asked about share consolidation at an AGM a few years back. The answer then was the Board didn't consider the cost (can't really remember the amount but think it was about $30-50k) wasn't a good use of the company's limited resources.

Times might change one day - would be nice to BLT out of the penny dreadful category. I don't think there's any rush though -it wont make the business any more money.

[Dorkus]

LOL, who knows DORKUS........I guess anything is possible. I mean if you'd told someone in 2015 (or thereabouts) that the then 60c ATM shares are going to be worth $18 in 2019 they would have laughed you off the face of the earth!! (funny thing is we're in the same industry offering longterm health benefits)

True - I did quite nicely out of ATM, got in at 59c and out at $14. If I'd bought the same number of them as I hold BLT I wouldn't be sitting at work now, that's for sure.

Hopefully the BLT board can keep up the good work and realise some of the potential in the market and I can retire when my boy (due in three weeks) goes off to school.

[whatsup]

Back up to BLT's recent high of .05

[GR8DAY]

Back up to BLT's recent high of .05


.......yup looking "well supported" now WUp. I remain optimistic we'll see a solid 6 in front of SP before too long.....there's no reason I'm aware of that this wont be the case. But as per usual DYOR first.

[Leon]

Oh no! All is quiet and BLT is heading below .04 I hope it is a momentary blip and no news is good news!

[Ricky-bobby]

I know! Iv been watching it head down as well.... had a couple of blis this morning so doing my bit! I say a few people are rationalising their portfolios, same thing happening with wdt.

[winner69]

Truely astounding ...I’m lost for words

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341545

We all love the warm fuzzies we get from winning awards

[dompf]

Truely astounding ...I’m lost for words

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341545

We all love the warm fuzzies we get from winning awards

That’s so cool! Well done BLT.

[RGR367]

Truely astounding ...I’m lost for words

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341545

We all love the warm fuzzies we get from winning awards

Should we really be when it's about "a marketing award"?

[Brain]

Should we really be when it's about "a marketing award"?

Yep - the marketing and hence commercialisation is everything now.

[fungus pudding]

Should we really be when it's about "a marketing award"?

Hard to see why they would win a marketing award. They sure don't have much joy getting it to 'take off' in the market.

[GR8DAY]

Hard to see why they would win a marketing award. They sure don't have much joy getting it to 'take off' in the market.



......you need to read the not-so-fine print Fungus. Blis has established itself as "No. 1 in Throat Lozenge products in NZ pharmacies......"??? Cant do much better than that.

Congratulations to the whole team.

[winner69]

Hard to see why they would win a marketing award. They sure don't have much joy getting it to 'take off' in the market.

These awards about stories and how you present them ...along with some pretty charts show huge sales growth and market penetration and market share and all that stuff.

But real warm fuzzies stuff.

[winner69]

First half gone gangbusters

Likely to smash through the $10 million annual sales mark this year ....truely remarkable

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BLT/342667/309827.pdf

[Leftfield]

First half gone gangbusters

Likely to smash through the $10 million annual sales mark this year ....truely remarkable

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BLT/342667/309827.pdf

Great stuff for holders....well done all!

[winner69]

Used to say the local corner dairy sold more than Blis

Upgraded that view .....Blis sells about the same as the meat section of the local supermarket

Pretty cool though

[artemis]

Interesting to take a look at the increasing number of products containing BLIS on Amazon. Very few BLIS branded, mostly added to other brands. Including K12 chewing gum.

[Leftfield]

You could have said much the same about ATM 10 yrs ago. You've got to love small cap companies on a path to becoming big cap companies!

BLT have been through some hard times and are making some good changes. They have learned well. Onwards and upwards.

[artemis]

I think there are growth opportunities with strep throat in particular but also halitosis.

Strep throat because though incidence of rheumatic fever following is small (couple of hundred a year in NZ) the lifetime cost of those cases is huge.

Halitosis because of the personal (and financial) cost of hard to treat cases, and BLIS is cheap to try.

[GR8DAY]

Great news.......I suspect growth like this will continue for many years ahead as humans come to fully understand the remarkable and vital role that "good" bacteria play in our physical and mental wellbeing. (the gut as our second brain) ............and what's the main point-of-entry for the good and bad bacteria?.......the mouth of course. Bad teeth,bad gums =bad health. So this is Blis' role as the first line of defence........followed by probiotics for the gut. Lesson ends.

[dompf]

What a great result! good to see them lining up a profitable year. Looks like there is plenty of opportunities in front of them also especially with the expansion of the team to focus on the E-Commerce in China and getting in the market in Canada. Hopefully more good news finally is on the horizon for BLT.

[Sideshow Bob]

Market loves it, powering up this morning.

[RGR367]

With announcement like this, we just have to ask what happened or where is Simla?

[GR8DAY]

With announcement like this, we just have to ask what happened or where is Simla?


.......SIMLA will probably be composing his analysis now (usually takes a couple of days to write and a couple of hours to read LOL) !!

[Snow Leopard]

The BLT chart is littered with these sudden price rises on good news, and they are usually followed by a subsequent long, steady decline back to some sort of status quo.

It would be nice if this time it IS really different.

Disc: Always liked the idea of owning some shares but it has always been as liquid as treacle at the South Pole in Mid-winter.

[RGR367]

The BLT chart is littered with these sudden price rises on good news, and they are usually followed by a subsequent long, steady decline back to some sort of status quo.

It would be nice if this time it IS really different.

Disc: Always liked the idea of owning some shares but it has always been as liquid as treacle at the South Pole in Mid-winter.

Yup but this time it's different :cool:

[Chippie]

Q1 revenue was 2.8M and EBITDA .5M
Half year revenue 5.4M and EBITDA 1.0M, net profit 0.8M

So really steady numbers espeacally against deficits of 0.5M and 0.2M for comparative period last year.

Have to assume BLT will smash last years FY result. The only question is by how much? This is looking really promising.

[winner69]

Q1 revenue was 2.8M and EBITDA .5M
Half year revenue 5.4M and EBITDA 1.0M, net profit 0.8M

So really steady numbers espeacally against deficits of 0.5M and 0.2M for comparative period last year.

Have to assume BLT will smash last years FY result. The only question is by how much? This is looking really promising.

Is smash the same as about the same?

They said in their guidance ‘EBITDA similar to FY19’

[pierre]

Is smash the same as about the same?

They said in their guidance ‘EBITDA similar to FY19’

They didn't say this, but I'm picking their new mantra is "under promise and over deliver."
If that proves to be the case, then even after paying the salaries for the two new execs, we should anticipate a second half result that substantially exceeds the the pcp.
I think BLT has finally turned the corner and we may not see the SP roller coaster ride this time - not to the same extent anyway.

[winner69]

They didn't say this, but I'm picking their new mantra is "under promise and over deliver."
If that proves to be the case, then even after paying the salaries for the two new execs, we should anticipate a second half result that substantially exceeds the the pcp.
I think BLT has finally turned the corner and we may not see the SP roller coaster ride this time - not to the same extent anyway.

You’d hope they are under promising because selling heaps more for NO extra profit is not good look. They did say similar ebitda

Latest quidane - “We have previously stated that for the 12 months to 31 March 2020 the Board is expecting sustained profitable growth and an EBITDA similar to FY19. We reaffirm this guidance on the basis of continued strong revenue growth from the ongoing investment in market expansion and pipeline development”.

[Sideshow Bob]

I would have thought their margins/EBITDA would ramp up pretty substantially with greater sales and more volumes?? ie pretty cheap to produce a few tablets, turn the machine on for a bit longer......

[winner69]

I would have thought their margins/EBITDA would ramp up pretty substantially with greater sales and more volumes?? ie pretty cheap to produce a few tablets, turn the machine on for a bit longer......

The story will be ‘investing for even more growth’ ...like the extra Commercial Director and Science Manager and no doubt heaps more advertising.

A bit like A2 (who some compare Blis to) but A2 profits keep increasing with heaps more investment for growth.

[Sideshow Bob]

The story will be ‘investing for even more growth’ ...like the extra Commercial Director and Science Manager and no doubt heaps more advertising.

A bit like A2 (who some compare Blis to) but A2 profits keep increasing with heaps more investment for growth.

They've been at it since 2001, even longer than PEB, and probably run things on a shoestring. Finally could be getting a little critical mass.

[winner69]

They've been at it since 2001, even longer than PEB, and probably run things on a shoestring. Finally could be getting a little critical mass.

Hope so

Like Snowie wouldn’t mind ‘owning’ a bit of Blis but besides liquidity can’t find any compelling reason to buy into a company with a $50m market cap with stuff all (if any) free cash flow.

[mfd]

A bit like A2 (who some compare Blis to) but A2 profits keep increasing with heaps more investment for growth.

That's only been true of A2 for the last few years, before that they were quietly plugging away building the market and reinvesting every penny. It was only after the IF really went crazy that they started spewing cash. During the earlier phase the share price was around 40-60c. I doubt Blis will replicate their success, but even a vague imitation could be quite profitable.

[pierre]

Looks like the latest sugar rush is over. Have to wait for the half-year report on 19 November for the next one!

[dompf]

More momentum this morning all appears to be good news...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344462

[jonu]

More momentum this morning all appears to be good news...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344462

More than good I reckon. Their cash position is a little tight, but the steadily increasing sales and margins should take care of that. They really do seem to have turned this ship around, quarter upon quarter.

[pierre]

More than good I reckon. Their cash position is a little tight, but the steadily increasing sales and margins should take care of that. They really do seem to have turned this ship around, quarter upon quarter.

I agree. Investment into new markets means the outlook remains pretty cautious for the year-end result. Setting themselves up for an under-promise and over-deliver outcome I suspect.

[RGR367]

I agree. Investment into new markets means the outlook remains pretty cautious for the year-end result. Setting themselves up for an under-promise and over-deliver outcome I suspect.

Agree too but it's a pity that the sp has to come down too with the latest report and aside than having more buyers now, the Market is still not grasping the company's potential. Oh well, it's okay too if they leave it all to us then :)

[jonu]

Agree too but it's a pity that the sp has to come down too with the latest report and aside than having more buyers now, the Market is still not grasping the company's potential. Oh well, it's okay too if they leave it all to us then :)

I'm guessing a lot of attention was diverted to the excitement over at ATM/SML yesterday. A big insto starting to build a position would fire things up. We can only hope;)

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm guessing a lot of attention was diverted to the excitement over at ATM/SML yesterday. A big insto starting to build a position would fire things up. We can only hope;)

Then MET will divert attention today.....

But with 1.1 billion shares on issue, plenty sloshing around. Need to do a share consolidation and might stop it being considered a penny-dreadful (which is rapidly moving away from).

[Snow Leopard]

With my new found enthusiam for treating my investment rule book as more of hindrance than a help I have taken a modest stake in Blis. I have long wanted to.

It took two goes.

On my first attempt my attention was diverted by the arrival of breakfast, which is very important, and I entered my buy price at $4.2 instead of 4.2c and the brokers wanted clarification as to my intentions.

But breakfast is done and fortunately I can still drink (a very nice Philippine) coffee and trade at the same time.

[jonu]

With my new found enthusiam for treating my investment rule book as more of hindrance than a help I have taken a modest stake in Blis. I have long wanted to.

It took two goes.

On my first attempt my attention was diverted by the arrival of breakfast, which is very important, and I entered my buy price at $4.2 instead of 4.2c and the brokers wanted clarification as to my intentions.

But breakfast is done and fortunately I can still drink (a very nice Philippine) coffee and trade at the same time.

I have a modest parcel that I maybe persuaded to part with at $4.20.

[Sideshow Bob]

I have a modest parcel that I maybe persuaded to part with at $4.20.

I'll sell you some too SL. I don't own any right at the moment, but can spot an opportunity...… :t_up:

[jonu]

I'll sell you some too SL. I don't own any right at the moment, but can spot an opportunity...… :t_up:

We maybe over estimating the naivete of the Leopard. A change of stripes to spots suggests a level of sophistication that just might undo our cunning plan.
That given, it's nice to see someone of the Leopard's wit, charm, intelligence and general magnificence on board the BLT wagon. Things can only get better from here, unless of course they don't.

[mfd]

More good news from Blis, Probiotic product of the year in Australia for ThroatGuard, in the first year with the new distributor.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344803