BLT - Blis Technologies

[neopoleII]

well, that was an interesting day!
very good report i must say.
what i did find brilliant is the name for the new dental probotic.
M18 is a blilliant name for it.
what with the americans facination for guns etc....... re the M series of weapons.
and kids love their toy guns and action heros, but hate brushing their teeth.
and since kids will be the biggest winners from this product, i can just see them getting into M18 toothpaste.
"" colgate M18" in a camo tube, kids will brush all the time because it will be cool, the parents will say "thank god" and every brand of toothpaste will have to add M18 and market it to stay with the times.
finally some clever thinking.
i still cringe when i think back to the original K12 ads with cartoon ribinna men bouncing around the place.......... """ yes please i need that""

M18 fang guard for the macro warrior......

haha

[simla]

Scamper, you say don't get too excited? I'm not sure that is possible. There was some seriously good news in the press release and the presentation.

1. Most importantly in my mind was the news that M18 is on the go, AND that they have already sold some of it to a manufacturer. K12 is a great product, but has struggled for market definition from the beginning. M18 won't have that problem and the potential dental caries market is surely huge. I hadn't been expecting Mia to get off the blocks for some time.

2. The doubled sales in NZ shows that the market will respond to marketing. (Once again, though, no detail at all given on just how consumers are to be lured to this product, which seems a central point now.)

3. Repeat business in US. That's great news. A very short time to already be getting repeat orders, a good sign.

4. The fifth largest retailer in the US is taking up K12 (and M18 later you must imagine). That can't be bad news.

5. Another Nestle sized deal signed up, but no detail.

6. After GRAS, 'K12 [could be] in a variety of mainstream foods'. Wow, that's wider than yoghurt. But anyway, "Progress with yoghurt and food applications".

7. Sounds like the Canadians have come to Blis perhaps, so reputation is spreading.

8. So many of the dates are very near-term.

9. Confirmation of sales into Japan (pop 130m, nearly half the US in size), distributing over coming months.

10. "An Asia-wide business development strategy is in place"

11. Work progressing for toothpaste and beverages. No detail of how, but if you look up micro-encapsulation, it seems to be a working technology now, and I presume that is where they must be going?

12. "periods of positive cash flow - yet to break-even each month" - looking very good for the half year result then?

13. "US sales still in the “building phase” - process takes 1-1.5 yrs" - well, the first US product launched 8 months ago I think, so well into progress.

14. "Many other developments by Frutarom in Asia".

15. "NZPR Group submitting New Resource approval in China" - that seems ahead of schedule.

16. "Regulatory approval is being sought in Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan" - That's a lot of people

17. "To ensure a product pipeline, BLIS will soon need to undertake further strategic developments" - okay, more cash, but there must be something there they like the look of. They only just launched M18, for goodness sakes.

18. "Focusing on sales in Nth America and Asia" - Oh, okay, only two thirds of the world then.

19. "Our customers have launched 6 SKUs since end 08 and we anticipate another 6-10 new SKUs by end 09 fy" - This thing just keeps going and going.

20. "Building the Global Ingredient brand for BLIS K12 and BLIS M18" - already a bigger target

21. "In discussion with major food company" - in progress already.

I said a while ago that the folks in Dunedin are well ahead of us, but this verges on the incredible from where I'm sitting.

[Chippie]

awesome!

I think we all expected postive news. But this has exceeded our expectations

[Chippie]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/67892/change-focus-blis-seems-pay

[simla]

Looking into M18 (last week's presentation stated "launch of M18 (previously MIA) "), Blis made this press release in 2007: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0708/S00034.htm , including the following:

"What makes MIA unique; however, is that this new strain has been shown to be very effective in protecting teeth from dental plaque, which is known to be a major contributor to tooth decay . We believe the new MIA probiotic can be used to suppress levels of Streptococcus mutans, the principal cause of dental plaques. Streptococcus mutans converts dietary refined sugar to lactic acid. The lactic acid, in turn, erodes the mineral in enamel and dentin, which weakens the tooth resulting in tooth decay.

And, "According to the World Health Organization, tooth decay is the most prevalent infectious disease, affecting approximately 5 billion people. "

M18 may be a combination of at least Mia and K12 to judge by the patent, which I take to be http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7226590.html , but frankly patents are a bit dense for my preferred reading. Does anyone else want to give us a run down on the Mia science? However, "very effective in protecting teeth from dental plaque" sounds promising.


Meanwhile, the sudden appearance of M18 on the market raises the question of what else Blis might be up to. One easy starting point is their website, in particular their own stated pipeline: http://www.blis.co.nz/?go=Corporate&c=Innovation-and-Science&p=Pipeline

Also, in the above 2007 press release, the background of the company stated : "The company has acquired the rights to the collection of an extensive range of BLIS producing organisms and is developing new products for use in the control of undesirable bacterial infections which includes dental caries control, the prevention and treatment of ear and throat infections, bovine mastitis, and skin infections."

[simla]

Everyone's gone quiet again. No wonder. With that news, the future for Blis has changed. All previous comments and speculations are now superceded, and we must see how it plays out. In the meantime, the share price next week could be interesting to watch.

[jonu]

Price is firming nicely this morning. I'd much rather it soaked upwards over a week or 2 to ensure sustainability.

The M18 product looks really exciting-if it did become a standard ingredient for toothpaste the sky's the limit. At this stage there is nothing to suggest it won't.

Hang on folks and enjoy the ride!

[Arthur]

Not sure if these bits have been mentioned

A major Japanese health chain is now taking finished product (lozenge) for their shops

Taiwan is expected to follow soon.

There is another $150,000 of Government funding this year

Breakeven is about twice current revenue

NZ is double last year, Aussie is still weak

Ireland is very slow, phamacies there are being hammered

The number of products in the US market is expected to double before financial year end

My impression was that there are so many irons in the fire now that it is a question of how long it will be before sales skyrocket rather than if....

If my fingers and toes had not been burnt before by "sure bet" biotechs I'd be buying a truckload rather than the few i've got...

[jonu]

I can see where your coming from Arthur, but hard as I look, I can't see a downside to Blis below about 20c at the moment.

This is a company that has done the hard yards and is now at the point of capitalising on sound R&D and more latterly good management.

In the next few days I would expect some to be jumping ship as they have probably hung on for an upswing, but if you've got the time & patience for an awakening sleeper this has got to be it.

Disappointing though that the "Herald" hasn't reported on anything.

One thing I think would be beneficial is more regular market updates from management as there has obviously (now) been plenty going on.

[Chippie]

I must say that I am amazed that people are selliing at these prices. If people own shares currently then they must have brought into the potenital for BLT. And if you beleived in the potential then you would think that 8 cents a share on 138m shares issued is a fire sale bargin.

For me personally I may consider taking some (only some) profits at 20 cents but no lower.

[Maggie]

This is all great news! Wish I had been at the meeting, would have been nice to have been privy to all this good stuff in person. I have been quietly believing (hoping) in this company since Barry took over.
I'm a baby sharetrader and not too up with the buying and selling. Has anyone got any ideas about a good sell price? I see that Chippie is talking 20c, is that realistic? Also, what about those Preference shares? A few sold at $2.00 yesterday which seems very high and there now seems to be no buyers or sellers on the NZX.
Love the positivity that is coming through on this board now, long may it last!

[Bobby_Fischer]

Maggie - Prefs should trade around 25 times the price of the ords, that being the minimum conversion ratio (should be a bit more, because Prefs come with income). So just 8 cents for the ords is equivalent to 200 cents for the Prefs.

Chippie I reckon a few holders will want out around 7.5 cents. The latest update is still all blue sky stuff and no hard numbers, with break even STILL "around the corner". So people who bought into the 2007 RI may see this as the time to de-risk and exit at cost - i.e. around 7.5 cents - while there is some buying interest, as this has been about the first opportunity to do so.

A lot is obviously happening behind the scenes and I wonder, as jonu does, why we are not getting more frequent updates. Don't the continuous disclosure rules require any events impacting the value of the company to be announced as soon as practicable?

[simla]

Personally, I would not be choosing a price to sell at, but a time. How long would you predict strong growth from this company based on the currently available news? If so, then selling before that time would only make sense if you wanted to limit losses from future unexpected bad news (whether Blis or the markets more widely), or if you wanted cash in the meantime, or if you had stronger growth prospects somewhere else - or if you think you're smart enough to dart in and out of shares at the right time.

Or, you may be owning this share for future cash flow (ie dividends) rather than capital gains, as I am. Future dividends from this company look pretty good for a long time to come as far as I can see. Holding long term will take some strong nerves, however, as the share price is no doubt in for some dramatics ups and downs over the next few years.

ps. IS anyone here for the long haul like I am?

[Cannibal]

I am holding for the long term. This seems a no-brainer to me - they have the right product(s), the right market, the right management team but most of all they have a distribution network to die for - that is the hardest part. 20 cents is just the beginning IMO.

[Maggie]

I'm probably holding too. Will see what happens though. I managed to get my average down while it was cheap so am doing quite nicely already! Also took a punt and took up the preference shares so have my fingers crossed that it is onwards and upwards from here.

Thanks for the information Bobby. I am always a bit worried that if I ask these things of my sharebroker, they will think I am stupid... At least on here I can be anonymously stupid!

[simla]

Interesting to watch the buyers versus the sellers. The sellers now are presumably mostly either needing cash or going for realised capital gain.

But if you read Victorian novels like Pride and Prejudice, they didn't talk about people's assets, but rather what income they had - ie dividends, not capital gains. And I read recently that that was still the case in at least 1950. Personally I believe that is where we are heading back to, simply because we are running out of bubbles, leaving only heavily undervalued companies for capital gain (fairly rare). Anyone care to suggest NZ companies that will look good under that dividend model? Obviously I'm picking Blis to do well there, for example.

As for the Blis share price, it looks like it might start drifting after the recent excitement.

The half year results are due in only about 15 weeks though. I agree that the recent news could be read as "still around the corner" - and obviously very many have read it that way. But, given the understatement that has been the hallmark of Blis news, I think it would be possible to read it the other way too. Was anything actually said denying that Blis was currently running at a profit? We know that there are several income streams that were not there last year (Japan, Taiwan perhaps, more new manufacturers in the US and repeat orders, M18, and the new research contract, more from NZ, if not others), and we also know that the declared last half-year loss was only $77,000 (full year loss minus prior half year loss). Also, interesting to note that "an Asia-wide business development strategy is in place and follows a similar commercial template as that used for North America" (press release). The US model involved rolling out manufacturers in fairly short order, and there are probably a whole lot of those "Asia-wide". Against that, the half year finishes in only 8 weeks, when momentum may still only be building on many of those fronts, and the preference shares will cost. Could be interesting.

[mccollr]

I agree Simla that income may be where it is at in the future.
Have a look at CYT. Trading at 14 cents yesterday and this from their half year report. "The company today said revenue for the six months to the end of June rose 2 percent to $7.75m, with an interim dividend of 0.5 cents per share to be paid." Telecom is often mentioned as a good dividend earner as well.

By that way what programme do you use for seeing the market depth. (Buyers and sellers) I use ASB as my online trader but that part is a bit week.

Rod

[simla]

Thanks, Rod. I'll look more closely at CYT. I use Direct Broking.

[jonu]

Interesting perspective Simla, Mr Darcy & all that, but I think things are a little different now, particularly with upwardly mobile people emerging from anywhere you can look, including internationally, and those trying to get further up the ladder rapidly will always cash in on a good book profit.

I personally am on approx 130% lift on my holding but am in for at least the medium term, maybe cashing in as cashflow reuires. I followed the Warren Buffet maxim of being greedy when others are fearful and made something of a pig of myself at 3.6 average but believe in the longterm prospects here.

[simla]

So, you're that investor we hear about from time to time - the one who manages to buy big, at the market bottom, in the hottest stock in town. Are you looking to buy Pemberley, then...? Nice one. There will be one or two others in this group who sound like they might have done nearly that, I think, well done guys, and a lot of others who will nevertheless be looking to do quite well anyway now that the future is looking so bright.

Not entirely sure that times have changed since Darcy. Yes, people will certainly always be willing to sell out and move on to the next investment, but the current circumstances have shown a lot of people to be swimming naked with the tide going out by doing that, as your friend Mr Buffet described it. The latest prediction I read is for a "WWWW" shaped recovery, which is certainly a possibility. If so, people will get sick of being burnt on capital gains. But, yes, if things just pick up again, the game will certainly resume.

[simla]

Since we're discussing where to go in the future with this, a few thoughts:

You remarked a while ago, Chippie, that this might be a once in a lifetime investment. I agree. For myself, I have only had three really satisfying investments in my whole life (not that I have spent my life devoted to good investments) and this is probably going to out-do the other two by miles. There will be anti-climax afterwards (if it works!), but we don't want to end up like those child stars who sadly spend their lives trying to relive the thrill of something that frankly they were simply plain lucky to get in the first place. (Emearg, I think I can hear you saying something about counting eggs... quite right.) So, if this works out as well as we hope, let's just enjoy the ride and not get too hung up looking for the next one.

Secondly, the future of Blis is still going to be heavily affected by the current outlook. When the market slumps currently, the Blis price hardly has anywhere lower left to go. But once it succeeds, it could start going up and down like a yoyo. Look at the recent dramatic slide of dairy-related shares on the NZX, for example. For myself, I think the next few years are going to see some wild rides generally, regardless of the current warm glow. Many obviously think such a wild ride might happen again this year. Whatever, as Blis goes up, the market's ups and downs are likely to be distressing for the Blis price. It's already going up, so that could start soon.

And thirdly, because I'm not expecting a repeat of Blis any time soon, I expect to salt away any rewards into a more conservative rainy day fund. The seven fat years and the seven lean years, so to speak.

Just some thoughts.

[Chippie]

Hi Simla
Yes, BLT is very interesting I have followed them forever.
• 7 years ago I brought 1K BLT at 60 cents then watched them go downhill steadily.
• A few years ago I thought they looked promising again and picked up 200K at around 9 cents.
• Approx 12 months ago I decided to cut my loses and sold most at 7 cents.
• Recently I decided that Barry Richardson is taking the company forward and they are finally starting to actually deliver on the story. I bit the bullet and picked up as many as I could afford between 3.6 and 4 cents.

If it does come off then the upside potential is huge. The market valued them at 95 cents 7 years ago based on a promise. Currently 8 cents a share looks a steal when the promise looks like it has a real chance (or at elast some chance) of becoming reality. It is an all or nothing opportunity which is the only thing that stopped me getting really silly on how many I purchased. Obviously believe in BLT/ Barry and consider the upside risk significantly higher than the downside.

The challenge is the NZ market where very few investors are interested in the likes of BLT. So it will probably stay low until they announce a dividend (hopefully) until then, who knows? Probably most likely that an overseas investor will takeover the company for peanuts (what normally happens with any decent NZ company)

[simla]

Chippie, I so agree about keeping NZ success stories in NZ ownership. If there is one lesson that leaps out of the last 25 years, it is the high cost NZ is now paying for losing control of so very many of its money making ventures. What state would NZ be in now if we had sold off our agriculture industry too? Nobody ever talks about the balance of trade issue, but it just hangs around NZ's neck, and the vast bulk of it now seems to be the so-called invisibles, which are mainly caused by overseas interests taking a clip on so many of our high volume activities. Everybody is so busy being "better off investing overseas" that nobody seems to notice the huge ongoing cost we all assume by abandoning our own companies.

I just so wish NZers could learn to HOLD ownership of things long term. Why don't we just sell all our houses overseas and then all rent? You'd think we would all be better off doing that to judge by how NZers treat all out other assets. Our economists here are always swearing that "models show" that we are better off with overseas investment. Pity how reality is working out. Those models assume constant good times, when we always make more profit than the service costs of the associated debt. In reality, we have lots of down times too, and then the overseas ownership costs just keep mounting like credit card debt. At first it doesn't seem much, but the cost just keeps mounting over time.

Which is one of the reasons that I say people should plan on holding the Blis shares they have, and also to PLAN to keep holding them long term. The big multinational companies have all the cash because they keep ownership of things that are doing well, while real live people are so often lured to sell out by the short term "offer I couldn't refuse". Well, the same strategy works for individuals - if it's a good investment, hang on to it. If the buy-out price is so unbelievably good, then why is the other guy offering it? Warren Buffett and Bill Gates are famous for buying and holding long term, and it doesn't seem to have done them any harm. Long term wealth has always lived off the income and handed on the capital to the next generation. But NZ as a country has been doing the opposite for a while now. Everyone is constantly moving their capital around, and risking it, in the belief there is a better story around the corner. But if constant capital gain is so effective, why is NZ constantly slipping downwards?

At present, it would appear we might assume maybe 25% of Blis is owned by NZers longish term (assuming the option is exercised). The rest is presumably mostly owned by NZers too, but what is the time horizon? Everyone has got their own situation, of course, but it would be great if most could recognise what we've got and plan on holding on long term. Tell your heirs everyone!

[simla]

ps. The other reason I expect to hold long term is that the business model of Blis, and the maths underlying Blis, and the truly useful nature of the products of Blis, all add up to this being a share that currently - just from my own judgment - I cannot currently actually imagine a time when the share price will exceed the long term cash flow of the company. When I first bought Blis shares, I thought this might be a 5 or 10 year investment. But now the structure of the company looks like this may very well be an excellent candidate for a very long term investment. Nobody can read the future, of course, and particularly we have yet to firmly establish market acceptance of the products. However, you'll gather my optimism is in full strength, and then some.

As an illustration, commercial toothpaste as we know it hit the market around 1900. Who wishes they had bought shares in 1900 and sold out in 1905?

[simla]

Shall I drift back on topic then! I'm sure many people, quite legitimately have different views to what I've just said.

The share price might be fun to watch this week. There was surprisingly consistent buying pressure throughout last week.

[emearg]

It was a good AGM presentation as noted by others and the share price increase of late. I am glad I bought quite a few in the weeks before hand, and took up my rights plus some. The writing was on the wall for things improving significantly. Now there is even more writing on the wall but considering the current market cap(including converted preference shares) I can't see the share price increasing much over the next few weeks. The half year result will push the price up or down depending on the numbers.

The negatives(IRELAND and Aussi) weren't a huge suprise.

There wasn't any mention of their progress with their additional outsourced manufacturing?

A few more articles(the first is more significant given it's audience):
http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Industry/BLIS-reports-strides-in-US-probiotic-market

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/christchurch-business/2713573/Fresh-breathed-Blis-enjoys-the-taste-of-success

Simla. Have you tried/had any luck finding the additional products that are out there but we don't know about yet? We know about four, but I gather there are six? Fancy a challenge??!??

[simla]

No, I was stumped about the 6 SKUs, too. Maybe it is Epoca and M18 that we know of. Or maybe Breezecare or Aktiv-K12 have new products, as I haven't followed their product range. Or perhaps in other languages. Or maybe manufactured but not for sale yet. Or perhaps an inhouse brand not on the internet.

I'm not really searching for products much, as we already know there is momentum. I would like to see the M18 though, to see the sales claims. As for a challenge, I had wondered if you would look at the science of M18 to tell us how compelling a sales case it can make, since you seem to enjoy the science reading. I look forward to seeing the food products too, and would guess yoghurt will be out first, and maybe in Australia or Japan. That feels like a highly saleable product to me.

Tell you what though, Blis have given us a good object lesson in the difference between marketing and sales. The classic definition of marketing is building on your relationship with customers. I couldn't see that that could be done at this stage with just one product and basically no actual customers, but Blis have quickly built on the K12 market already with M18, at the very least. They have also been building on their relationships within the industry.

In fact, I said a while ago that Blis were now a fully fledged biotech company. But I'm not sure they aren't transforming into a marketing company, Colgate-Palmolive like.

[emearg]

As for a challenge, I had wondered if you would look at the science of M18 to tell us how compelling a sales case it can make, since you seem to enjoy the science reading.

Enjoy? No not really. Understand? No, not really! ;-)

Like you I read the patent app for M18. Reading such material helps to broaden ones understanding of the possible uses of the probiotics. The more we know the better but the reading is hard going.

Blis have always had at least one good product but up until a couple of years ago they didn't have anybody that was capable of thinking the way that is necessary to do the product justice. Barry has a history of delivering the goods in the dairy industry and so far is doing an excellent job with the Blis probiotics. I am quietly confident that what we are seeking now is just the start. I am expecting things to start snow balling, mainly because of the Frutarom relationship. They have people, and they have those people in many many countries. That is resource Blis were never going to be able to afford on their own unless they got big, and they were never gonna get big enough on their own. Chicken and egg stuff. Haha, I seem to like mentioning eggs don't I? Actually, the old saying of an egg a day keeps the doctor away comes to mind, but I have modified it to a K12 tablet a day keeps the doctor away. Over time this will do doubt change to a product containing K12 a day keeps the doctor away.

Like you Simla I have no intention of selling BLT anytime soon. If things change and things start going down hill then who knows. As long as Barry hangs round and keeps delivering the goodies selling seems to be rather a stupid thing to do unless one needs the cash for other (non investment) reasons.

The most informed group about Blis is Barry and the board, and our recent underwriters. They know the most, and they have all stumped up considerable cash. To me, that is an excellent reason to relax for the next couple of years (as they have enough cash to survive it) and see what happens. As previously noted I am eager to see the full year results to be announced half way through 2010 as it will be interesting to see how much of the progress turns into revenue.

One question I have is how are the preference share dividends going to be paid? Will be paid in cash or in the issue of additional preference or ordinary shares or something else? Thoughts??

[foodee]

Enjoy? No not really. Understand? No, not really! ;-)

Like you I read the patent app for M18. Reading such material helps to broaden ones understanding of the possible uses of the probiotics. The more we know the better but the reading is hard going.

Blis have always had at least one good product but up until a couple of years ago they didn't have anybody that was capable of thinking the way that is necessary to do the product justice. Barry has a history of delivering the goods in the dairy industry and so far is doing an excellent job with the Blis probiotics. I am quietly confident that what we are seeking now is just the start. I am expecting things to start snow balling, mainly because of the Frutarom relationship. They have people, and they have those people in many many countries. That is resource Blis were never going to be able to afford on their own unless they got big, and they were never gonna get big enough on their own. Chicken and egg stuff. Haha, I seem to like mentioning eggs don't I? Actually, the old saying of an egg a day keeps the doctor away comes to mind, but I have modified it to a K12 tablet a day keeps the doctor away. Over time this will do doubt change to a product containing K12 a day keeps the doctor away.

Like you Simla I have no intention of selling BLT anytime soon. If things change and things start going down hill then who knows. As long as Barry hangs round and keeps delivering the goodies selling seems to be rather a stupid thing to do unless one needs the cash for other (non investment) reasons.

The most informed group about Blis is Barry and the board, and our recent underwriters. They know the most, and they have all stumped up considerable cash. To me, that is an excellent reason to relax for the next couple of years (as they have enough cash to survive it) and see what happens. As previously noted I am eager to see the full year results to be announced half way through 2010 as it will be interesting to see how much of the progress turns into revenue.

One question I have is how are the preference share dividends going to be paid? Will be paid in cash or in the issue of additional preference or ordinary shares or something else? Thoughts??

Emearg
Just out of interest - what is the 'life' of the patents.

Cheers

[Glendoonie]

[quote=foodee;268236]Just out of interest - what is the 'life' of the patents?/quote]


The term of a patent is 20 years, but It is possible to receive time extensions equal to the amount of delay. Reasons for "delay" comprise

Delayed response to an application request for patent.
Exceeding 3 years to consider a patent application.
Delays due to a secrecy order or appeal.
Most patent attorneys will use any and all reasons to receive these time extensions as there is no disadvantage to their client - the applicant.

Cheers

G

[simla]

As you say, Emearg, the full year result will certainly be the one to look for, as it will contain not only a year of expansion, but a full year's trading in at least some of the US. Except, by then we will also be wanting to hear a full year's results on M18, and Nestle, and China, and Asia, and ... Meanwhile, I haven't abandoned hope that this half year result will be enjoyable.

Either way, the current news may be great indeed, but it will be nice to hear an actual profit at some point. Till then, we're still banking on tomorrow. Hard to see how it can go wrong now, but all things are possible. Still, last week's news was very heartening.

[emearg]

One question I have is how are the preference share dividends going to be paid? Will be paid in cash or in the issue of additional preference or ordinary shares or something else? Thoughts??

Some of you may have missed this question? Do you have any thoughts on this? Cheers

[Cannibal]

Can't resist posting this from a UK blog...

"Blis K12's good bacteria are more beneficial. Besides populating your mouth with good bacteria, somehow it manages to prevent flu and sorethroat and it helped my bowel movement, nowadays i pass motion everyday, sometimes twice a day."

Lotsa scatological pun potential there!

[Glendoonie]

Besides populating your mouth with good bacteria ...... and it helped my bowel movement, nowadays i pass motion everyday, sometimes twice a day."

Good grief !!!! Have you any other anecdotal evidence?

[simla]

Emearg, the big players surely will be keen for cash, and Blis must have plenty of cash in hand from the rights, and they are expecting positive cash flow any time now. I'd be surprised if it wasn't paid in cash.


Meanwhile, here's a simple bit of arithmetic people might find fun to do, now the business plan is proceeding so quickly.

Say the Blis share price was $1. If the PE was 15, then how many cents per share profit must Blis have made to justify the $1 (ie. divide $1 by 15)? Since there are currently 138 million shares, then what total profit must Blis have made, in dollars (ie. multiply the cents per share by 138 million, and make sure the answer is in dollars not cents)?

Now, say Blis had opened into markets of 2 billion people. China, Europe, US and SE Asian should safely cover that, as planned. And say that the profit was proportional to the size of each country. Then NZ is just 4 million of those 2000 million people. Take the total dollars profit you just calculated justifying the $1 share price, and work out how much of that would have been made in NZ. (ie 4/2000ths of total profit in dollars), thus getting the profit attributable to NZ to justify a share price of $1. Now, how much profit do you think NZ will actually bring to Blis? Interesting?

Of course, profit margins reduce as volume increases. And profits do not simply scale by population. And lots of other objections, such as time scale. And we cannot possibly see the future, so that is very definitely not a prediction. Etc, etc, etc .

But that illustrates why I hope NZers hang on to their Blis shares for some time to come. Alas, only the future will tell if holding on is actually a good idea. Looking good though.

[emearg]

I see that the share price is slowly increasing despite my earlier prediction. The bid and ask are both in the 9 cent range today.

My movements haven't been effected by taking K12

[emearg]

Say the Blis share price was $1. If the PE was 15, then how many cents per share profit must Blis have made to justify the $1 (ie. divide $1 by 15)? Since there are currently 138 million shares, then what total profit must Blis have made, in dollars (ie. multiply the cents per share by 138 million, and make sure the answer is in dollars not cents)?

Simla, I think you should factor in the converted preference shares into your calculations.

If Blis does well, the three million preference shares will convert into 75 million ordinary shares. So rather than doing the sums using 138 million shares, I think they should be done using 213 million shares.

Do you agree that this is more realistic or do you think it is premature? If you think the latter then do you have a better way to value the company/calculate potential PE etc?

[simla]

You're quite right, Emearg. But I would go for 238 million, as the other $1 million option is on the table too, isn't it? However, the suggested arithmetic gives such a happy result that it doesn't make too much difference. The answer I got was undoubtedly exceeded quite some time ago already.

[Cannibal]

Simla - ta for the analysis - excellent work again.
Emearg - glad your bowels are good.

Not sure if this is old or not -

In response to the growing demand for an effective breath-freshening solution, Frutarom, the exclusive marketer of BLIS K12T, a new oral cavity probiotic bacteria, released study results showing BLIS K12 can effectively treat bad breath. In 2007, Americans spent nearly $6.7 billion on mouth-freshening products, according to the market-research firm Euromonitor International.

Let me write that out for you - US$6,700,000,000 per annum on mouth freshening.

Now a mere 1% slice of that market would be...

[simla]

Thanks for that one, too, Cannibal. The significance of that one had quite slipped by me.

[emearg]

Emearg - glad your bowels are good.

Thanks for the kind thought Cannibal but I never said my bowels are good I just said my movements hadn't changed...



Not sure if this is old or not -

In response to the growing demand for an effective breath-freshening solution, Frutarom, the exclusive marketer of BLIS K12T, a new oral cavity probiotic bacteria, released study results showing BLIS K12 can effectively treat bad breath. In 2007, Americans spent nearly $6.7 billion on mouth-freshening products, according to the market-research firm Euromonitor International.

Here is Frutarom full press release which was released back in March:

Probiotic Bacteria BLIS K12 Supports the Maintenance of Fresh Breath
2009-03-02 - Frutarom USA Inc.

In response to the growing demand for an effective breath-freshening solution, Frutarom Inc., USA, the exclusive marketer of BLIS K12, a new oral cavity probiotic bacteria, released study results showing BLIS K12 can effectively manage bad breath. In 2007, Americans spent nearly $6.7 billion on mouth-freshening products, according to the market-research firm Euromonitor International.

“BLIS K12 is an oral cavity probiotic with multiple functions, including helping to maintain a healthy ear, nose and throat plus maintaining immune function,” notes Laurent Leduc, VP Health Division for Frutarom. “The research on bad breath explores one of it’s many interesting activities.”

Most cases of bad breath are the result of protein breakdown by odor-causing bacteria thriving on the tongue. Bacterial by-products of this protein breakdown include foul-smelling gases which make the breath unpleasant. Good oral care, such as brushing and flossing every day, can help prevent bad breath by removing food debris and other sources of protein for these bacteria. However, for many people with chronic bad breath or on high protein diet, these steps alone do not provide a satisfactory solution.

“It’s all about bacterial balance,” explains Jocelyn Mathern, M.S., R.D., Technical Health Specialist for Frutarom USA. “ BLIS K12 can inhibit odor-causing bacteria and contribute to long-term fresh breath, rather than just masking bad breath, like most oral hygiene products do.”

Research conducted by scientists at the BLIS Technologies Center for Innovation, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand, found that administration of BLIS K12 after an oral antimicrobial mouthwash reduced volatile sulfur compound levels in the mouths of individuals suffering from chronic bad breath. The outcome of this study indicates the replacement of bacteria causing bad breath by colonization with competitive bacteria, such as BLIS K12, could prove an effective strategy to reduce the severity of bad breath.

BLIS K12 was designed specifically to protect the entire oral cavity and is clinically shown to reduce the incidence of sore throat while boosting the immune system. It can be used in many applications and in combination with other probiotics.

Contact:
Laurent Leduc
VP US Health Division and US Marketing
Frutarom USA Inc
E-mail: lleduc@us.frutarom.com www.frutarom.com
Tel: (952) 920-7700

About Frutarom
Established in 1933, Frutarom is a rapidly growing global flavor and fine ingredients company. Frutarom develops, manufactures and markets an extensive variety of high quality flavors and natural fine ingredients for customers in the food, beverage, flavor, fragrance, pharmaceutical, nutraceutical and cosmetic industries. Frutarom's 20,000 products are sold to more than 10,000 customers in 120 countries around the world. The Frutarom Group has 1,500 employees worldwide and manufacturing facilities in Europe, North America, Israel and Asia.
Frutarom operates through two divisions.

Frutarom provides tasty and healthy solutions to its customers fulfilling our vision: To be the Preferred Partner for Tasty and Healthy Success.

Frutarom Industries Ltd. is a public company whose stock is listed on the Tel Aviv and London Stock Exchanges. As of January 1, 2003 Frutarom has been included in the Tel Aviv 100 Index.


Let me write that out for you - US$6,700,000,000 per annum on mouth freshening.

Now a mere 1% slice of that market would be...

Yup, it is a huge market and with our new Marketing department at Frutarom on the job it looks likely Blis will start earning some revenue from it this financial year.

1% is 67 million (US$)!!

I can't see that level of market penetration being achieved quickly, but 0.1% might be achievable in the next couple of years? Yet again I am happy to have my expectations exceeded...

And as annouced at the AGM, Blis had been granted a US patent for it's BLIS K12 probiotic for the treatment of halitosis. Here are Barry's words:
“We have been waiting a long time for the US patent office to grant us this property right around BLIS K12 and halitosis. This means that we have a clear advantage in the world’s largest market for those keenly interested in maintaining fresh breath and good oral hygiene”.

[simla]

Emearg, I thought about your question on PE etc for the next couple of years, now that things are finally moving. It's a fair question.

On the technical front, the prefs are three years away, and it seems unlikely to me that people will factor that in much for a couple of years yet in valuations. So I think probably the 138 million will be the relevant figure for a couple of years, and then there will be an awkward transition to include the preference shares. As for PE, I would have a guess at 15. 10 or less would be bearish, which seems unlikely to attach to Blis at present. I'd cheerfully go for 20 to 30 if we were in a full on bull market, but life's too gloomy for that, I'd have said.

But having said that, I'm not sure that it's going to matter. Psychology may dominate pricing for a couple of years or more, leaving technicals in the dust. We are already seeing that now, with the price going up because of the shortage of supply versus the demand. We think we know that Blis' revenues could increase dramatically, though we don't know the time scale. If the half year and full year results are as heartening as I would expect, then Blis could reach "must have" status in the wider market within a year, if not much sooner. But Blis shares are fairly tightly held, so the price could do anything. If Blis kept releasing ever better results every 6 months, that mania could go on for some time.

But never mind the technicals or the psychology, because there's a third factor: Blis' actual results. The Blis price might reach three times what the current news justifies, and yet still Blis could announce a result even better than that. Blis has a very large number of irons in the fire, and many of them could be very big irons. For the next two or three years, it is hardly impossible that any given announcement will have double or triple the income of the previous announcement. Indeed, in the shorter term it could even be as much as six or seven times if several irons paid off at the same time. Too, we know that Blis often have another iron or two hidden off stage. M18's release was one of those. As another example, India (pop 1.21b) hasn't been mentioned for a while. Yoghurt. Food. Toothpaste. And we've just been talking how a small part of the US fresh breath market would be big. Equally, of course, results could be relatively disappointing at any given time too.

Put all that together, and I have a gut feeling that the Blis share price is just going to go up and keep going up to a fairly high level before taking a breather. How long will that take? Will that be 30 cents, or 60 cents or $2? Who knows. Would the "breather" be a 70% downward correction, or just a gentle pause? Will it then go up again? All this we do not know. But behind it all I believe will be the "must have" status that I suspect will soon attach to Blis, and the knowledge that a seemingly wild price may turn out to be quite justified by the next results. And if psychology does become dominant like that, ups and downs will be heavily exaggerated, and movements in world sharemarkets will become a fact of life in Blis valuations.

If things do turn out this way - and this is obviously very much just a guess about the future - it will be very trying for shareholders. Valuations could fluctuate wildly, testing nerves. Those who want to hold on will watch big downward movements with bated breath. Those choosing to sell out at "artificial highs" will risk losing out too - sell out at 30 cents, only to watch it soar to a dollar, for example.

In short, I think the technicals will be swamped by hot money in the not too distant future. Those wanting to sell out to the hot money will be happy, if they can pick the right moment. Those wanting to hang on, like me, might have to wait 3 or 4 years for things like PE to become relevant again. All of this, in my view, will be driven mainly by Blis' financial results being very open to big jumps during that time, while they find a stable market position.

All of the above is nothing but opinion, of course. Anything may happen. Perhaps Blis will still be selling at 9 cents in 3 years! Anyone else have ideas? Will Blis shares become a target for hot money?

[Cannibal]

Simla - I describe my self as an "Optimistic ingenue" but you leave me for dead on the optimism stakes!

"Will that be 30 cents, or 60 cents or $2?"

Two dollars = my retirement sorted!

[simla]

"Optimistic ingenue" AND "Cannibal"? Very subtle!

I seem to recall being called too optimistic before! Can't help it, the facts on Blis just look good to me. A turnover of $25 million might produce a profit of $15 million, which would price out at $1.63 on a PE of 15 on 138 million shares, I think.

Interesting to note that the rights issue papers for 8 November 2007 included the sentence "to achieve an annual turnover of more than $25M within the next 5 to 10 years" (p16). Of course, nobody could hold them to that, but apparently that was thought possible then. And things have moved along spectacularly well since then, no?

In passing, also interesting to note, on the same page, "to market products in the oral health care sector as well as in food applications, personal care applications, animal nutrition and health." Room for some more surprises yet, perhaps.

[emearg]

Funnily enough, even at $2, the market cap of the current ordinary shares would still be less than the market cap that Plus SMS reached backed in its day. And that was all based on hype and lies. Now their market cap is less than 1% of what it once was.

Madness may prevail...

[simla]

There's an underlying reality here. Blis has suddenly gone from one of a list of biotech startups that might succeed, to a genuinely profitable sustainable company. But that leaves wide open the question of how much it is worth. It will take at least 3 or 4 years to establish what size sales markets it might establish, and it will probably also take 3 or 4 years for the stock market to decide on a pricing regime for Blis. All of that will take trial and error and time, and could be dramatic anyway. The possibility I see on top of that is the hot money having a go at it in the meantime.

[emearg]

There's an underlying reality here. Blis has suddenly gone from one of a list of biotech startups that might succeed, to a genuinely profitable sustainable company.

Odd thing to say as they have yet to make a profit??!!?

[emearg]

The share price has doubled in the last 10 business days. What a difference an AGM can make...

[winner69]

simla and emearg - not each others alter ego are you

Keep the banter up anyway .... its good

[simla]

Funnily enough I was accused of being someone else only about 6 months ago. That was also because more than one of us was optimistic at the same time! That optimism has been proved justified, but only time will tell about this one.

More seriously, though, chip in with ideas. What DO you think the outlook is, whether for the company or the share price? The idea of this group is to gain knowledge and ideas by shared discussion.

[Phaedrus]

My movements haven't been effected by taking K12What you are saying there Emearg, is that K12 has failed to cure your constipation!!!!

I think (hope!) you really mean affected, in that K12 has not altered your normal bowel movements.

[Cannibal]

Well done Phaedrus. As a grammar pedant I was tempted to comment but not brave enough.

I was thinking of starting an Off Topic thread with examples of the stunning typos on here!

Disclosure - I am a member of the Facebook group, "If you can't tell the difference between your and you're, you deserve to die."

Harsh but fair in my opinion.

[emearg]

As a grammar pedant I was tempted to comment but not brave enough.

I think you may have missed out a word from that sentence Cannibal? ;-)

Anywho, I should have thought about what I was saying before my fingers went wild!

Hopefully I get my to vs too vs two right and my your vs you're and amount vs quantity vs number of something right not to mention a few others.

I will take more note of effect vs affect in the future...

I'm not Simla but do share much of his optimism for the future of Blis.

[neopoleII]

regarding bowl movements,
k12 might be killing the bad bugs that cause upset tummies,
so another use for k12 might be in the 3rd world, where lack of hygene induced sickness prevails.
endless opurtunity.........

i think a study should be made at the local hospital with patients of different ills getting a free dose of k12 to see what happens....................

it seems k12 has yet to be fully appreciated

i remember several years ago a poster mentioned that his hair stopped falling out once taking k12 on a regular basis........ a reason hair falls out is that bacteria on the scalp can kill hair folicals,
which is why it is important to dry hair properly, and folks who wear hats all the time have a higher probability of hair lose because of the humid conditions under their hats.

[emearg]

Having reread one of Frutarom's press releases (text is below) it makes me wonder how hard it will be for Frutarom to sell the concept of K12 to their customers? The quotes "hundreds of times more effective than even most traditional antiseptic throat lozenges if used as an oral antiseptic" and "this research suggests that if you are already sick, BLIS K12 can stimulate an immune response to help a person recover faster” makes me wonder how many of their customers wouldn't want to introduce a product based on this probiotic? Considering all the studies on it's safety and efficacy makes it a bit of a no brainer really doesn't it?


New Data on Probiotic BLIS K12 Effectiveness in Supporting Respiratory Health and Stimulating Immune System
2008-12-16 - Frutarom USA Inc.

Frutarom USA Inc. is able to present new data on the effectiveness of their new oral cavity probiotic, BLIS K12 from BLIS Technologies Ltd in New Zealand. Frutarom has exclusive distribution rights to this product.

Frutarom completed a marketing and supply agreement with BLIS Technologies Ltd, which was announced last month at SupplySide West. Frutarom is now able to present new independent scientific data from Germany and Canada which points to why this probiotic organism, BLIS K12, seems to be so effective in protecting the oral cavity.

BLIS K12 is the world’s only probiotic specifically designed to protect the entire oral cavity which includes the throat, mouth, gums and teeth. Under specific conditions, it has even been shown to protect the nasal sinus from infection. BLIS K12 is known as an advanced probiotic, because unlike other probiotic organisms, it will produce antibacterial peptides (called BLIS) when it is under threat from a potential disease-causing bacteria. Studies on the potency of the antibacterial effect of the advanced probiotic organism demonstrates that it is hundreds of times more effective than even most traditional antiseptic throat lozenges if used as an oral antiseptic.

Jocelyn Mathern, (M.S., R.D.), Technical Health Manager for Frutarom, reported that a research group from the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, recently published a paper on the unique properties of the organism BLIS K12, in the scientific journal from the American Society of Microbiology, called “Infection and Immunity”. The research paper went beyond examining the classic probiotic activity of certain bacteria to determine if the BLIS K12 probiotic conferred any additional benefit, simply by colonizing in the oral cavity.

“What’s exciting about this research is that it showed that BLIS K12 exhibited a pronounced anti-inflammatory effect and this was directly related to its interaction and colonization with its host (i.e. the person taking it). This demonstrates that the human body actually responds in positive and beneficial ways, in the presence of BLIS K12, unlike many of the other bacteria that can be found within the human body.” Mathern said. “Additionally the study also suggested that the BLIS K12 could switch on the genes in the epithelial tissue that are responsible for cellular rebuilding and repair, especially after a cell has been damaged by a pathogen.”

The research group that investigated BLIS K12 took several months to complete their work and involved researchers from the University of British Columbia (Canada), University of Leeds (UK), Inimex Pharmaceuticals (Canada), and the University of Otago (New Zealand). They now confirm that the beneficial effects of the probiotic BLIS K12 goes beyond the unique ability to produce its well-known, anti-bacterial peptides (called BLIS), which are clinically demonstrated to kill bacteria implicated in upper airways infection, chronic bad breath and bacterial infections of the oral cavity. “We know that BLIS K12 has protective benefits against sore throats and upper respiratory infections, but this research suggests that if you are already sick, BLIS K12 can stimulate an immune response to help a person recover faster,” stated Mathern.

Just prior to this publication from the group at the University of British Columbia, another important study appeared in the European Journal of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases. In this earlier study it was suggested that the advanced probiotic, BLIS K12, could exert a long term protective effect upon the upper respiratory tract (ear, nose and throat) if the subjects sucked on a series of BLIS K12 lozenges immediately after a course of antibiotics. The study suggested that BLIS K12 had the potential for unique application of protection against ear infections in children.

INFECTION AND IMMUNITY, Sept. 2008, p. 4163–4175 Vol. 76, No. 9
DR. M. ROHDE, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR INFECTION RESEARCH, Braunschweig, Germany
MICROBE Oct 2008, Commentary on Infect. Immun. 76:4163–4175
EUR J CLIN MICROBIOL INFECT DIS, DOI 10.1007/S10096-008-0569-4

[simla]

Well, that's the million dollar question, Emearg. Just how saleable is this science? On paper it looks good, but you could probably say similar things about an apple, yet most people will buy a burger instead. How many people do you know who buy probiotics, or even bother talking about it? Probiotics is very much a niche market so far.

Of course, Blis only needs the niche market to do very well indeed anyway, but I'm intellectually very curious to see whether the concept is strong enough to hit the broader public in the end. You can see K12 succeeding in the niche health-supplement end of the market. And they are also trying hard to break into broader consumer areas, but the question is whether the products can have broad popular appeal. Can you sell a product widely that consumers can't understand easily? We all buy "added fibre", for example, because we understand that it "helps prevents cancer" or "keeps us regular" - in other words, we do think we understand it (really we have probably just memorised the advertising slogans.)

So, I'm not sure how broadly K12 will appeal until there's an easy catch phrase for it. Can you describe what it does in 5 catchy words or less, which is the attention span needed in any promo? "Prevents most coughs, colds and flus" would be great if that was proven, but what can we say currently? "More effective than even most traditional antiseptic throat lozenges if used as an oral antiseptic" just doesn't grab people, does it? "Neutralises bad breath" will sell, but that is a niche market again.

But M18, now, that's easy: "Helps stop teeth from rotting", or "Cuts dentist's fees", or some such. We all know the slogan: "Keeps teeth clean and healthy", for example. That's got a great chance of hitting the mainstream market, which is why I see it as a game changer for Blis. That science is definitely saleable.

[simla]

A bit off-topic. But many here seem to like the health side of Blis. So you might enjoy this, with some parallels to Blis, though obviously rather different.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/wellbeing/6028408/Chlorella-the-superfood-that-helps-fight-disease.html

[simla]

And still a bit off-topic, here's an American gentleman lamenting that Americans don't hold their stocks either. His graph compares now with 1929.

http://dailyreckoning.com/stop-trading/

Very interesting to note from the graph how many people became "holders" after 1929.

[Impatient]

Pheew, glad I sold out at 8.3c (albeit at a 60% loss)....these very, very promising shares seem to be in free fall right now. Good luck everyone :-)

[emearg]

It sure is a pretty negative day on the market with a lot of red on the board!

Not that I am very interested in short term ups and downs it is interesting to see that the BLT selling frenzy seems to be coming to an end. 3,000 on offer at 6.9 cents and then the next lowest offer is 9.1 cents.

I wonder if work is being done to get K12 into milk powder? It struck me yesterday that it might be quite possible/practical. Considering that a large portion of the global population get their milk from milk powder the market could be very significant. I wonder if the newly annouced consumer products company might be looking at milk powder?

Any thoughts?

[simla]

Good to see you again, Impatient. I ALMOST conceded to you a few weeks ago that it was still all promise and no dollars, nearly a year later. But then the latest news seemed close enough to real dollars that I thought we might call it a draw.

New research project seems more likely to be M18 or the deodorant one, since K12 has been pretty thoroughly researched I'd have thought. But milk powder is interesting, except that must be almost what Nestle's research is. Could be yoghurt - someone may want it, but not without research first. Or one of the many things we don't know about.

[simla]

Thinking about it. maybe the research is on acne. The Blis web site says "Skin infections (including acne) - a potential candidate organism displaying good in vitro properties has been identified and in addition to medical outcomes, the cosmetic uses of such products are promising" (in "Pipeline"). Perhaps that is as ready to roll as M18? It is a huge market, and the treatments for acne are not that great - cleaning doesn't work very well, antibacterials have mixed results, so do antibiotics and acne is becoming resistant, plus a handful of other things that have mixed results.

[emearg]

Prof Tagg was interviewed on 3 News tonight. It was a story about icecream in dairys that you wouldn't want to eat knowing what bugs it contained due to poor hygiene practices. Not related to probiotics but he was surrounded by Blis products and advertising which was a few seconds of free advertising for those who looked beyond Prof Tagg's face.

The Prof was also on Radio NZ this afternoon. He might have been surrounded by Blis products but it was kinda hard to tell...

[Cannibal]

Graeme - you tried to correct me.

Dairies!

[emearg]

Tried to correct you? I didn't need to try...

Yes, very good. Thank you for noticing. I hadn't. At least I didn't say diarys. Or diaries. That is just wrong in so many ways ;-)

[simla]

http://img02.netsea.jp:80/ex23/5/102035/zig001/sml_29767_0.jpg

This is the first place I've seen actually advertising the Japanese version, Epoca, for sale at a retail level (or are they a wholesaler?). It is at the bottom of this page as of time of posting this:

http://netsea.jp/categ/80/C?tid=S&page=7&sort=new&

[Oman]

Thanks for the info Simla. Maybe we'll see some benefit down the line.

On a more general note ...we're mostly busy people who have an interest in BLT because we have money invested. So if we make an error of spelling etc that's far less important than what we have to say about BLT.

I'd just like to say I appreciate the thoughts I get from this Thread and if someone makes a spelling or grammar error that's nothing to me. I like to hear what you have to say thanks ...with or without a spell check.

[mccollr]

Well said Oman. !!!

[Cannibal]

Emearg - I think that we just got told off - twice!

[emearg]

Emearg - I think that we just got told off - twice!

Fair enough. It is mean't to be about the thoughts of the contributors and not about how fantastic there grammar is. In my opinion as long as the post is written well enough so you dont have to reread it 5 times too get the writer's meaning that is good enough.

PS NO points will be given for those who can correctly count the number of errors in the paragraph above ;-)

[emearg]

Below is a link to a 14 page PDF Frutarom put together to sell K12 as an ingredient.

It is split into four sections:
• Product Sheet
• Reference List of Studies
• Specification
• Structure Function Claims

It was published in October 2008

http://www.ckfoods.com/pdf/BLIS_K-12_Brochure.pdf

[simla]

With a share price of 7.5 cents, Blis has now got back to the price it had in Jan 2007. We've all sat around wondering about staying in an investment that wasn't exactly paying off.

So, for comparison, I've looked at some big name NZX Top 50 companies:

% change, company, price Jan 2007, price yesterday

0.00% blt 0.075 0.075
-20.00% vct 2.60 2.08
-22.12% fph 4.25 3.31
-34.35% amp 11.50 7.55
-35.26% air 1.90 1.23
-42.74% tel 4.75 2.72
-46.67% pgw 1.65 0.88
-66.25% gpg 2.40 0.80
-78.68% fpa 3.80 0.81

All figures are approximate, as I read them from the price history graphs on the NZX site. And there is no adjustment for anything either. If I've made mistakes - I'm only human - please let us know.

But the message is still interesting: Blis seems to have beaten them all by a comfortable margin. And Blis is still expecting to do a lot better than this. And still nobody has heard of Blis.

[simla]

Fair enough, I'm sure others would beat it. But I assure you I chose these randomly BEFORE I looked at the values. I just chose names in the top 50 that I thought were pretty reputable and trading well in 2007, and then I did the maths afterwards. I think they are all shares many people would have had in their portfolio at the time.

[simla]

A big day in Japan for Blis it turns out. The apparent importer, Isk Corp, report for Epoca "And import procedures in relation to ensuring quality, the slow launch, We've been a great inconvenience to everyone, you can now finally begin August 25 launch day." (http://www.e-isk.com/news20090819.html, according to google translate). It's still several weeks to end of half year, so room for Japanese sales there. Perhaps Isk have back orders, too, with the delay?

They have also upgraded their page about Epoca. Looks like someone put a bit of work in. http://www.e-isk.com/epoca.html . Remember this company appears to be the Japanese importer. The other page I linked to before, http://www.netsea.jp/catalog/29767, who look like they may be a wholesaler (foreign language sure makes it hard), has also bothered to update their page to say Aug 25, suggesting some interest?

Emearg, thanks for the K12 link. I'm looking forward to seeing Frutarom's M18 pamphlet. That K12 one is dated October 2008, but I'm pretty sure it only appeared on the web recently, suggesting they went out and sold it personally first. Remember that we saw the first K12 US product on the web only about 3 months after October 2008. I'm guessing they are busy with M18 too.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Let's hope Epoca becomes the new Japanese "must have".

[simla]

Here's an interesting link in Taiwan. I realised I haven't searched much for a while.

http://shop.ftv.com.tw/shop/index.php?action=product_detail&prod_no=P0000020018839

FTV is Formosa TV, of which one blog site says:"Formosa TV is Taiwan’s most profitable TV station, and it enjoys a pioneering reputation for being one of the first free-to-air channels in the country to switch over to digital. Based in Kaohsiung, FTV also became the first station in the country to use the Taiwanese language in the majority of its programs, especially prime-time news.".

The FTV shop is selling the Blis Fresh Breath Kit. It sells a lot of other things too, so hard to judge how effective this would be.

You may recall the other link I found in Taiwan a while ago, also selling the Fresh Breath Kit.

http://store.pchome.com.tw/healthplus/M03955306.htm.

[mccollr]

Had the opportunity this week to try the Blis K12 throat Guard.
I am very very impressed. Sorted a real hum dinger sore throat in a day and now on day 3 of the treatment I am back at work.

Rod

[emearg]

Had the opportunity this week to try the Blis K12 throat Guard.
I am very very impressed. Sorted a real hum dinger sore throat in a day and now on day 3 of the treatment I am back at work.

And it looks like I am going to make it through another winter without getting sick. What a difference this product has made to my winter life! I used to get several colds every winter without fail and I have almost forgotten what it is like to have one!

I am thinking about taking K12 all year round. Hopefully I won't get any summer colds plus I will get the other benefits.

Anybody here a regular user? What are your usage patterns?

[smith3737]

From one who gets 3 or 4 colds each year, I have been taking K12 Throat Guard daily for the last 3 months and not a sign of the slightest sniffle. I have used most of their products and cant speak highly enough of them. From an investment point of view over a 2year period this is New Zealands number one and at these prices itas a steal.

[pietrade]

Yep, before travelling to S.E.Asia during the 'swine flu' scare, I took a course and had no indications at all of any cold or flu. I'm considering taking a regular lozenge to ensure a cold/flue-free life.

[emearg]

I note a person has bought 2500 ordinary shares at 7.5 cents each. That totals $187.50. For $187.50 they could have bought 107 preference shares at $1.75. In 2012 the preference shares will convert into 2679 ordinary shares. Over the 3 years the buyer would also receive $56.25

So, todays buyer ends up with 169 fewer shares and will miss out on the 10% pa payments.

Is there any good reason why somebody would choose the ordinary shares over preference shares if there is an adequate number of preference shares available at what seems to me to be the better price all things considered?

[neopoleII]

the first question to ask is ..... was the sale initiated by the seller or the purchacer?
if the seller...... then it was just someone accumulating someones exit.
if the purchacer...... then yes...not too smart.

[Cannibal]

Maybe they don't want to hang on to them for 2 years...

They paid $187.50. Brokerage will have been $30 and another $30 when they sell. That means they shares have to go up by ~30% just to break even!

Just got my first lot of K12 to see what the story is. Excellent range at the pharmacy - three separate Blis products - very well presented. I'll let you know the result - fingers crossed.

Anyone know when they are due to make their next announcement please? Communication is not their strong suit!

[weasel]

Maybe they don't want to hang on to them for 2 years...

They paid $187.50. Brokerage will have been $30 and another $30 when they sell. That means they shares have to go up by ~30% just to break even!

Just got my first lot of K12 to see what the story is. Excellent range at the pharmacy - three separate Blis products - very well presented. I'll let you know the result - fingers crossed.

Anyone know when they are due to make their next announcement please? Communication is not their strong suit!

This was probably part of a larger order. You only pay one brokerage fee for the entire order.
cheers
wease

[Cannibal]

According to Direct Broking these were the trades today -
Price Volume Time Cond
7.5 1,000 17:00
7.5 500 15:49
7.5 2,000 15:23

[emearg]

This was probably part of a larger order. You only pay one brokerage fee for the entire order.
cheers
wease

No, it was the entire order. I had been watching it for a couple of days. They only wanted 2500 shares at 7.5 cents. On Friday two sellers came in and allowed it to be completed.

At the same time there was a sell order for the preference shares at $1.85. It had been sitting there for a day or two.

So they could have bought preference shares if they had wanted to. Even at $1.85 they would have eventually gotten 33 more shares plus the divs.

That is what got me wondering about the buyers logic.

I see Frutarom have had a pretty good quarter all things considered. That is good...we don't want our marketing department to go out of business!

http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=24850&zoneid=11

[fungus pudding]

Fair enough. It is mean't to be about the thoughts of the contributors and not about how fantastic there grammar is. In my opinion as long as the post is written well enough so you dont have to reread it 5 times too get the writer's meaning that is good enough.

PS NO points will be given for those who can correctly count the number of errors in the paragraph above ;-)


Grammar isn't too bad. Punctuation and spelling mistakes = 5.:D

[manxman]

Grammar isn't too bad. Punctuation and spelling mistakes = 5.:D

I only get 4. Is this a tease or do we have a new and superior class of pedant?

[fungus pudding]

I only get 4. Is this a tease or do we have a new and superior class of pedant?

The final clause of the last sentence (below) 'that is good enough' is fragmented, or could even be considered ambiguous. (i.e. It could mean the writer's meaning is good enough.) The sentence works with a comma between 'meaning' and 'that'.

In my opinion as long as the post is written well enough so you dont have to reread it 5 times too get the writer's meaning that is good enough.

To be strictly correct the sentence should be reconstructed thus;

In my opinion it is good enough as long as the post is written well enough so that you don't have to reread it 5 times to get the writer's meaning.

The other two are meant and their.

[manxman]

FP I yield to your wisdom.

[fungus pudding]

FP I yield to your wisdom.



In which case, I acknowledge yours.:D:D:D

[simla]

We've had a few side discussions going on here lately, and it's interesting that there might be a common theme.

Are most of us here because we like things to be "good", "better", "optimal"? Which is what Blis as a company has always aimed at. We're mostly happy to be following a share which has so far offered the chance of that even at some cost. And I've been talking about holding shares like Blis long term, as optimal for the future of NZ. Others probably like trading instead, but probably still seeing that as being the optimal choice too. Guys have been talking about optimal spelling and grammar lately. And we've all been impressed with watching a well executed business program. Ironic that there have always been so many people in the world who want things to be good, and yet people can't agree on how to do it. Perhaps there are as many wars fought over "optimal" as over money and oil.

Anyway, in a world of so many shoddy outcomes, it's nice that Blis has seemingly attracted a group of people who like things to be right, even if we can't necessarily agree on what that means ... or how to spell it.

[fungus pudding]

Personally, I would not be choosing a price to sell at, but a time. How long would you predict strong growth from this company based on the currently available news? If so, then selling before that time would only make sense if you wanted to limit losses from future unexpected bad news (whether Blis or the markets more widely), or if you wanted cash in the meantime, or if you had stronger growth prospects somewhere else - or if you think you're smart enough to dart in and out of shares at the right time.

Or, you may be owning this share for future cash flow (ie dividends) rather than capital gains, as I am. Future dividends from this company look pretty good for a long time to come as far as I can see. Holding long term will take some strong nerves, however, as the share price is no doubt in for some dramatics ups and downs over the next few years.

ps. IS anyone here for the long haul like I am?


Yes I suppose I am. Just bought some today. I know absolutely nothing about the sharemarket and have never bought anything but listed property trust shares. My no. 1 thingy is commercial R.E. investment and at present these listed trust things are being given away, while buildings aren't. I accumulate investments purely to stack up income usually, and never sell - so these damn things will go to the grave with me - hopefully not too soon, cos I'd quite like to see some dividends. :D I know nothing about this Blis outfit, but looks interesting, reading through the posts. I'm not usually a gambler, and there's obviously a degree of a gamble here, so I've just dangled my toe in the water so to speak to see what happens. Bought 100,000 at 7.4 cents for a kick off. God only knows why really, :confused: but could be fun. :) So I must say I have enjoyed your enthusiastic (understatement) posts - and will haunt this site looking for the gems of wisdom that have grabbed my attention.

[simla]

Funguspudding, just to remind you and others that I have never recommended anyone invest in BLT. That is a decision for each person to make for themselves, and after their own research.

This group is a place for people to exchange publicly-available information about BLT, and to discuss possible reactions and interpretations to that information. The result is a mixture of information (I try to cross-reference my own information for you so people can check it for themselves), and opinions.

Opinions of other people can be worthwhile, of course. But you have to remember we do not know where each person is coming from. I saw Blis mentioned as a penny dreadful elsewhere on this site, for example. That's okay, as each person approaches a share for their own ends. But opinions expressed in a group like this might appear differently if you did not know that was the background. Another person will be approaching it as a member of a diversified tech portfolio, for example, which I'm sure some people here are doing. Other's may be looking at it as investing in NZ's future, which I openly include as part of my objective.

One investment book I read described opinion as scuttlebutt, and very useful - Philip Fisher, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits". It's a good book, but he includes opinion from insiders in his scuttlebutt, as too the competing companies, as well as customers and retailers. All of which goes a long way past what might be read here.

My optimism comes from reading the publicly-available facts found on this group and the Blis web site, plus I find a fair amount on the net that I do not judge worth mentioning here, but which might influence me anyway. And I am optimistic of the conclusions that might be reached from that information too. But that does presume we know the facts, whereas long-time Blis followers know that surprises are a regular feature, as information does not leak out of Blis. The company news of July 31 this year is a classic example. That was unexpectedly good, but the release not too long before that, end of May, contained some unexpected, bad news, that the important Australian market wasn't doing well.

So, yes, my optimism is genuine. On the back of it, I have an investment in Blis. But I am not a guru with secret knowledge. I just go through the information I'm aware of and interpret it. I could plain be wrong, and things may not be that good after all, may even be not good.

Examples of possible bad outcomes are easy to mention. Most importantly, we do not know whether the world needs or wants Blis. The Scots probably thought they had a world-beater with haggis, but it turned out the world wasn't that excited. Also significantly, the "green shoots" arguments don't stack up with me. Unemployment is growing steadily all around the world, with no obvious thing likely to stop it any time soon. Interest rates are mostly low so far, but governments and corporates worldwide are planning on borrowing mind-blowing sums of money, and I expect rates will rise noticeably after a bit. If interest rates doubled (or more) around the world over the next year or two, that would have dramatic effects, I would think. Ability to roll over commercial property loans are looking a potential problem in parts of the world, too. Any of this could give Blis a big headache.

However, you seem to have made quite a few posts in these groups and I'm sure you know all of this. But I thought I would say it all anyway, as I have always tried to be very clear that I am willing to find publicly-available information about Blis, and to discuss it, but I have absolutely no more knowledge of the future than anyone else. I remain optimistic, but I can obviously also be wrong in my judgment. Anyone who buys Blis shares after reading this group must do so entirely based on their own judgment, aware that everyone here may have different motives, and that news and interpretations found here might later turn out to be less useful. We're all only human.

Good luck with your investment if you keep it. Thanks for your kind comments.

[fungus pudding]

Funguspudding, just to remind you and others that I have never recommended anyone invest in BLT. That is a decision for each person to make for themselves, and after their own research.

This group is a place for people to exchange publicly-available information about BLT, and to discuss possible reactions and interpretations to that information. The result is a mixture of information (I try to cross-reference my own information for you so people can check it for themselves), and opinions.

Opinions of other people can be worthwhile, of course. But you have to remember we do not know where each person is coming from. I saw Blis mentioned as a penny dreadful elsewhere on this site, for example. That's okay, as each person approaches a share for their own ends. But opinions expressed in a group like this might appear differently if you did not know that was the background. Another person will be approaching it as a member of a diversified tech portfolio, for example, which I'm sure some people here are doing. Other's may be looking at it as investing in NZ's future, which I openly include as part of my objective.

One investment book I read described opinion as scuttlebutt, and very useful - Philip Fisher, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits". It's a good book, but he includes opinion from insiders in his scuttlebutt, as too the competing companies, as well as customers and retailers. All of which goes a long way past what might be read here.

My optimism comes from reading the publicly-available facts found on this group and the Blis web site, plus I find a fair amount on the net that I do not judge worth mentioning here, but which might influence me anyway. And I am optimistic of the conclusions that might be reached from that information too. But that does presume we know the facts, whereas long-time Blis followers know that surprises are a regular feature, as information does not leak out of Blis. The company news of July 31 this year is a classic example. That was unexpectedly good, but the release not too long before that, end of May, contained some unexpected, bad news, that the important Australian market wasn't doing well.

So, yes, my optimism is genuine. On the back of it, I have an investment in Blis. But I am not a guru with secret knowledge. I just go through the information I'm aware of and interpret it. I could plain be wrong, and things may not be that good after all, may even be not good.

Examples of possible bad outcomes are easy to mention. Most importantly, we do not know whether the world needs or wants Blis. The Scots probably thought they had a world-beater with haggis, but it turned out the world wasn't that excited. Also significantly, the "green shoots" arguments don't stack up with me. Unemployment is growing steadily all around the world, with no obvious thing likely to stop it any time soon. Interest rates are mostly low so far, but governments and corporates worldwide are planning on borrowing mind-blowing sums of money, and I expect rates will rise noticeably after a bit. If interest rates doubled (or more) around the world over the next year or two, that would have dramatic effects, I would think. Ability to roll over commercial property loans are looking a potential problem in parts of the world, too. Any of this could give Blis a big headache.



All of which is why I decided it might be fun to take an interest, and why I made only a small investment.

[simla]

Good stuff. Actually, I always find it strange when people talk about my having a lot of optimism, as I seldom say just how optimistic I really feel. To my mind, the interesting points about Blis are: why has it got a Fortune 500 Marketing Manager; why does it only deal with very big firms; why does it have a distribution network seemingly much bigger and more developed than a company would need to just sell a throat lozenge at a profit? Blis has so far done things very logically and made every move for a reason.

[foodee]

Simla
Good stuff-appreciated your posts.
Intrigued why they call it K.. - sounds more
like breakfast cereal or sail boat.

cheers

[Cannibal]

Interesting thoughts Simla - ta.

The share is on the rollercoaster that you predicted. Well over 300,000 traded today at 7.0 or 7.1 cents. Weird.

[jonu]

Rollercoaster's right. I suspect it'll be on a downward swoop until some more positive news. The fickle nature of the market never ceases to amaze.

[fungus pudding]

Good stuff. Actually, I always find it strange when people talk about my having a lot of optimism, as I seldom say just how optimistic I really feel. To my mind, the interesting points about Blis are: why has it got a Fortune 500 Marketing Manager; why does it only deal with very big firms; why does it have a distribution network seemingly much bigger and more developed than a company would need to just sell a throat lozenge at a profit? Blis has so far done things very logically and made every move for a reason.

I bought a pkt. today just for a laugh. First point was the pharmacy had no idea what the difference between the two choices they stocked was, and tried to work it out from the label, which was of little help. But they did ask if I wanted strawberry flavour or vanilla, which I really wonder about. It sort of gives the impression of a novelty product I felt. Anyway I chose the 30 day pack. I think the details and layout on the pkt. are appalling. Amateurish mix of capital letters thrown in for no reason; one horribly ambiguous sentence. Heaps of room for improvement. Reminiscent of Chinese/Taiwanese products. Certainly not up to the standard of American packaging as far as print info goes.
Another point: It also says contains strawberry flavouring, and elsewhere 'contains no artificial flavour'. Real strawberry flavour??? Makes me wonder. So I'm away to get a sore throat now - to see if it works!

[simla]

K12 is now widely available on the net:

- In the US, you can buy Animal Parade Inner Ear, Life Extension Advanced Oral Hygiene, and Solaray Oral Flora on amazon.com, shopping,yahoo.com, and shopping.google.com .

- In the US, all of those products are also available on an extensive list of other largish websites.

- In NZ, there are quite a few online pharmacies, and they all seem to stock Blis.

- In Japan, Epoca is now for sale on at least three retail websites: www.takachanmarket.com/products/detail.php?product_id=17302, www.touch-express.net/epoca/, and www.netsea.jp/catalog/29767

- In Taiwan, the Fresh Breath kit is on at least two sites mentioned previously.

- Blis also seems to be on many ebay sites around the world.

- Blis is also available on several asian-language sites that seem to be hosted from NZ, but which ship to Asia.

Only the financial results will tell us how much is being sold. Does anyone understand how Nature's Plus, LEF and Solaray are promoting their products though - what will make complete strangers walk up and want to buy the stuff? Does this type of market just rely on word-of-mouth, or what? LEF sent out their monthly email which mentioned it once, of course.

[Cannibal]

Nature's Pus - nice!
Down 28.6% today - oops!

[simla]

Sorry, Cannibal. I edited that out at the same time as you posted.

Yes, how did 10,000 shares get sold at 5 cents when there are bids for 200,000 shares at 7 cents right now?

[fungus pudding]

Only the financial results will tell us how much is being sold. Does anyone understand how Nature's Plus, LEF and Solaray are promoting their products though - what will make complete strangers walk up and want to buy the stuff? Does this type of market just rely on word-of-mouth, or what? LEF sent out their monthly email which mentioned it once, of course.


I have just heard a radio Ad. for Blis. I'm not sure whether it's a new ad. or not, but I've never been conscious of it before.

[simla]

Hey, that's big news. What radio station, as some will be able to tune in - it will probably be on several times today on that station, seems to be how radio ads work. And what was it like?

[fungus pudding]

Hey, that's big news. What radio station, as some will be able to tune in - it will probably be on several times today on that station, seems to be how radio ads work. And what was it like?


'Twas on ZB Newstalk, so I presume it was nationwide, although some of their adverts. are regional. (I'm in Dunedin) It named an Auckland distributor - pharma something or other that I have never heard of before. Ad. was aimed at dry throats.
I heard it sometime between 11 and midday, so if you can be bothered you'll no doubt find it on their replay radio section which you access from their website.
Here's the link to their 'Week on demand'.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/weekondemand.asp?menu=2&menuitem=3

If I get a chance this arvo I'll listen through and post the exact section.

[Ponda]

I've heard the ad several times over the last week or so. It has been playing on Classic Hits. I live in Whangarei.
I thought that the ad was professional and to the point.

DISCL: Hold BLT

[fungus pudding]

'Twas on ZB Newstalk, so I presume it was nationwide, although some of their adverts. are regional. (I'm in Dunedin) It named an Auckland distributor - pharma something or other that I have never heard of before. Ad. was aimed at dry throats.
I heard it sometime between 11 and midday, so if you can be bothered you'll no doubt find it on their replay radio section which you access from their website.
Here's the link to their 'Week on demand'.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/weekondemand.asp?menu=2&menuitem=3

If I get a chance this arvo I'll listen through and post the exact section.


This is the advertiser - Pharmabroker.
http://www.pharmabroker.com.au/

[simla]

Thanks for the link, Funguspudding. The ad can be heard in this file http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/thisweek/hourrecs/Wed, Sep 2 11.00 trn-newstalk-zb-akl.asf at 00:53 (ie. 53 seconds in.)

It lasts 30 seconds, does indeed sound professional and to the point, and pretty inviting too. Phrases from it: "Throat lozenges or gargles not giving you enough soothing benefits for dry throats?" "New natural oral probiotic Blis daily throat lozenges." "For optimal throat health." "Soothe your throat." "Blis natural daily lozenges taste great and can be taken by all the family."

The ad was placed by Pharmabroker, who are the NZ distributor appointed by Blis. When that deal was announced in April 2007, Blis said, "Pharmabroker is a privately held Auckland based company that represents a number of well known local and international brands in New Zealand including Colgate Oral Care, Grans Remedy, Eye-q, Zyrtec, Buccaline and No Jet Lag. Pharmabroker provides New Zealand coverage of retail pharmacy, Health food and medical channels." After that, Blis also started looking at its product range and packaging which slowed down the NZ relaunch presumably.

I wonder how many stations it is running on? Newstalk has a big audience anyway, and so do Classic Hits I would think. And it is in time for this financial half-year, too.

[emearg]

First thoughts are it is an excellent advertisement. Enough to get you interested in the product but not too technical to put people off. It seems a little late in the season to be starting a campaign but better late than never I suppose.

Big drop today. I wish I had been the buyer at 5 cents!

Back up to 9 cents tomorrow?

Any predictions on first half revenue? I reckon we can pretty safely say that Ireland won't contribute anything. Hopefully Aussi has improved but perhaps not significantly? NZ sales will be interesting. I bought another months worth yesterday but I doubt it will make a significant difference to the 1st half results :-)

Thank goodness for the good old USA...

[simla]

I haven't heard of dropshipping before. It's fascinating.

Dropshipping is a hot new trend - the new key to being a net retailer. The dropshipper, the new version of a wholesaler, supplies the goods directly to the end customer instead of to the retailer, complete with an invoice customised for the retailer. The retailer only has to put up a website advertising the goods, take the orders, and take the money. The dropshipper does everything else. Apparently, the end purchaser usually does not know that the dropshipper was involved, so it makes it easy to start a net business with no up-front stock or delivery hassles to worry about - just a website and a payment system. Very clever. You need to be a bit careful that you choose a good dropshipper, as your own reputation as a net retailer can only be as good as the dropshipper's services.

Apparently, some people selling on ebay are doing nothing but listing products from dropshippers, and don't even have the hassle of delivery to worry about, let alone having bought the product in the first place, or even putting up a website or payment system. Okay, nobody will read the rest of this. You'll be too busy setting up an e-tail business as soon as you can. It does sound like money for jam.

But it also means for products like Blis that listing at a dropshipper makes it easy for lots of other sellers to "stock" your product, as it costs them almost nothing to do so. They just have to add a product page to their website.

It seems that one of the Japanese sites I mentioned is a successful and reputable dropshipper, although I won't say which one in case my foreign language translations are somehow in error. They look like they have extensive connections - they have over 2000 products for sale in the health and beauty section alone, for example. They also helpfully can list their products in sales order (or that's how I read it via translation), presumably for the retailers' benefit, and Epoca seems (via translation) to have made it up to page 45 of 47 in health and beauty after being available for one week. Obviously that is no measure of repeat sales, but would nevertheless suggest some interest in getting hold of the thing.

It makes me wonder how many of the US sites are selling via dropshippers, too. Dropshipping started in the US apparently. However, I wonder who pays for the marketing, or even bothers to do it at all, in such a situation? The dropshipper has little to gain, as they are selling as many different products as possible presumably, while the net retailer is presumably trying to minimise effort all round anyway. Maybe this is why Blis are pushing the global branding idea - to reflect the modern net retail market?

Anyway, the use of dropshipping would seem to raise the possibility that Blis sales might move faster than expected initially due to potentially large numbers of websites listing it straight away.

[fungus pudding]

I haven't heard of dropshipping before. It's fascinating.

Dropshipping is a hot new trend - the new key to being a net retailer. The dropshipper, the new version of a wholesaler, supplies the goods directly to the end customer instead of to the retailer, complete with an invoice customised for the retailer. The retailer only has to put up a website advertising the goods, take the orders, and take the money. The dropshipper does everything else. Apparently, the end purchaser usually does not know that the dropshipper was involved, so it makes it easy to start a net business with no up-front stock or delivery hassles to worry about - just a website and a payment system. Very clever. You need to be a bit careful that you choose a good dropshipper, as your own reputation as a net retailer can only be as good as the dropshipper's services.

Apparently, some people selling on ebay are doing nothing but listing products from dropshippers, and don't even have the hassle of delivery to worry about, let alone having bought the product in the first place, or even putting up a website or payment system. Okay, nobody will read the rest of this. You'll be too busy setting up an e-tail business as soon as you can. It does sound like money for jam.

But it also means for products like Blis that listing at a dropshipper makes it easy for lots of other sellers to "stock" your product, as it costs them almost nothing to do so. They just have to add a product page to their website.

It seems that one of the Japanese sites I mentioned is a successful and reputable dropshipper, although I won't say which one in case my foreign language translations are somehow in error. They look like they have extensive connections - they have over 2000 products for sale in the health and beauty section alone, for example. They also helpfully can list their products in sales order (or that's how I read it via translation), presumably for the retailers' benefit, and Epoca seems (via translation) to have made it up to page 45 of 47 in health and beauty after being available for one week. Obviously that is no measure of repeat sales, but would nevertheless suggest some interest in getting hold of the thing.

It makes me wonder how many of the US sites are selling via dropshippers, too. Dropshipping started in the US apparently. However, I wonder who pays for the marketing, or even bothers to do it at all, in such a situation? The dropshipper has little to gain, as they are selling as many different products as possible presumably, while the net retailer is presumably trying to minimise effort all round anyway. Maybe this is why Blis are pushing the global branding idea - to reflect the modern net retail market?

Anyway, the use of dropshipping would seem to raise the possibility that Blis sales might move faster than expected initially due to potentially large numbers of websites listing it straight away.



A lot of products on Amazon are supplied to the purchaser from a 3rd party. Have been for ages. It's a damn nuisance when you 'add items to your cart' then checkout to find each one must be shipped separately at separate cost because they are not being suppied by Amazon, who obviously just clip the ticket. I see a huge downside to the system and that is it makes it extremely easy for any two-bit manufacturer to get up and running, so the marketplace will become hugely competitive. i.e. as soon as any newly developed product proves popular clones will be just as easily be available in no time.

[simla]

We sure are motoring through the pages since you've been doing all this quoting, Funguspudding!

Yes, I agree that dropshipping potentially changes quite a few rules. At least with Amazon they tell you that someone else is involved. But dropshipping generally raises the idea of being invisible, so that there appears to be widespread market acceptance when there has only really been a whole lot of virtual stores popped up. I've been surprised how many US sites Blis has shown up on, but also surprised that they seem to just put up the same sales blurb everywhere. Well, dropshipping is one possible explanation. Perhaps some have not been buying and stocking the product at all, just putting up a web page. The NZ on-line pharmacies, by comparison, appear to be genuine pharmacies with real stocks.

[emearg]

I note on Stuff.co.nz that BLT is up 80% today.

It would be great to see BLT go over 10 cents...

[Cannibal]

Yep - the 5 cent aberration has gone. That was weird.


My pick is that they will stay in the low 9 cents until an announcement. And they are not the best at keeping the market informed...

[simla]

Yes, Emearg, but an 80% gain is so far not the biggest mover for the day. Another share's 90% gain followed such good news as "Suspension of Securities Lifted", "Resolves Bank Issues" and "Further Capital Raising"...

I've been putting up news from research because I instinctively feel things must be happening visibly now, as indeed is turning out to be the case to some degree. But it is a bit unreal now, isn't it? The good news is on the table, but real ongoing results are needed to make it seem real.

(I'm sorry I have edits on so many of my posts. They are almost always typos. I do check before I post, but somehow I don't see them until I've posted.)

[simla]

Predictions on half-year revenue? Well, in early July, I apparently pondered about half-year revenue, " NZ (170) + US (500) + Aus (50) + Asia (100) + other revenue (150) = $970k MIGHT be achievable this half year. " Halving standing cost of say $1.4m pa to 700k would then have left a profit of maybe $250k. Depends what costs attach to the preference money, too. And that assumes we don't quibble about capitalising the research costs, but that is probably reasonable.

But the excellent news in late July supercedes that. Looking at the press release of 31 July: For a starter, we were told a "substantial sum" has been paid for this unknown research "over the coming months". Then also, we might think that sales into Japan and Taiwan may be somewhat more than trivial after all this half year, so 100k there may be understating it. Doubled sales in NZ to June - hard to say what that might do, but 170 seems more likely a minimum than a maximum in that case for the half year. The US would seem to be the big unknown. We have no way of knowing whether it is ticking over or booming.

So, after that scientific analysis (!) my gut feeling is that several hundred thousand profit for the half year still remains a possibility, with even the possibility of a surprise on the upside. Frankly, though, it is a sheer guess as we have so little to work on. We do know that Blis can make several millions profit before they have to pay tax though, due to accumulated losses. Could it actually make yet another loss though? Well, yes, it just seems unlikely now with so many markets on the boil.

What are you picking yourself, Emearg? Anyone? And what effect do you think that could have on the share price?

[Cannibal]

Excellent conjecture!

The shares seem undervalued to me. Whoever picked them up recently for 5 cents must be laughing.

M18 is the real key to riches IMO. If is effective against tooth decay then the sky is the limit. Blis say, "Sales of the new Blis M18 occurred in June of this year."

I am assuming that it it not yet a product on general availability yet as I can't find it advertised anywhere.

America in particular, and the world in general, is obsessed about tooth hygeine and decay. Just imagine if Colgate put in their toothpaste - now there is a volume market! A dollar a share minimum!

[Chippie]

Okay Simla, I will have a crack at the half year figures

2008 figures
Total Revenue $1.1M
Sales 6 months = $158K
Sales 2nd 6 months = $450K
"other" Revenue = $539K
Deficit = $487K

2009 half year (my guess)
Sales = $600K
Other Revenue = $250K
Profit = $50K

On the news release of BLT half year result the share price will go to 18 cents.

The full year profit in 2010 will explode to $500K and the share price goes to 40 cents on a P/E ratio of 12 (or is that just wishful thinking?). At this point we all pat ourselves on the back for buying lots of shares at 4 cents and we have a share holder meeting in Rarotonga 

[simla]

Thanks. Chippie. We seem to be on the same page, but different ideas on just how far the sales will have gone. That really is the interesting bit, of course. By the way, though, not sure you haven't moved the decimal point on that 40 cents calculation for 138 million shares.

Anyone else want to hazard a guess? Remember, we don't know what size the M18 sale might have been (or if there's been another). Neither do we know about the trial in the large retail chain for Q4 2009 - I would have thought expected initial sales for that would have to be booked into this half year. Plus Blis has undoubtedly been busy elsewhere so there may be progress somewhere.

[simla]

Interesting to note that almost all US retail sites have LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene listed at about 25% off, or US$15, which seems to be the sort of deal offered on a lot of similar items. But LEF have it listed at $8 for members, and non-members down to $8 from $20. Have they lowered the price because it is not selling well, or because it IS selling well and they figure that will only increase net sales? I'm inclined to think you would only do that if it was selling well, as you wouldn't make much by reducing the price of a low volume item. Anyone have any feelings on that?

[Oman]

... LEF have it listed at $8 for members, and non-members down to $8 from $20.

Thanks Simla.

I checked the site and my opinion is that it's unusual for LEF to offer non-members the same discount as members, so my guess is that the new product isn't selling well and LEF wants to offload stock ASAP. You can see that almost all other products on sale have a price advantage for members.

I think the shelf life may also be a factor as consumers won't buy if they think the home storage-life is less than 2 years and from memory the blis product has a total life of less than 2 years from manufacture date so LEF must offload stock quickly ...although I'd expect the stuff to be used almost immediately so that thinking isn't particularly rational.

Anyway, I think this is bad news rather than good.

[fungus pudding]

Interesting to note that almost all US retail sites have LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene listed at about 25% off, or US$15, which seems to be the sort of deal offered on a lot of similar items. But LEF have it listed at $8 for members, and non-members down to $8 from $20. Have they lowered the price because it is not selling well, or because it IS selling well and they figure that will only increase net sales? I'm inclined to think you would only do that if it was selling well, as you wouldn't make much by reducing the price of a low volume item. Anyone have any feelings on that?

It will almost certainly be because it is not selling at the higher price.

[simla]

Seems like marketing is the question everywhere we turn now. The K12 product exists, is reliably stable, has proven benefits, and is popular with informed regular users, as well as with on-selling manufacturers.

But there's still that question: to what degree will the world will adopt an oral probiotic?

That NZ radio ad was quite clever in directly comparing the product with throat lozenges and gargles, thus tagging the product on to something the world already understands. The ad then uses the phrases "oral probiotic" and "optimal throat health", thus introducing the new concept at the same time. However, it says "soothes the throat" and does not mention the idea that oral probiotics lead to health.

Interesting that LEF, on the other hand, directly push the improved health idea. Is that working? Animal Parade's Inner Ear, goes somewhere different again by targetting crying kids with sore ears, I suppose. Nestle are presumably going somewhere slightly different again. The Japanese Epoca message seems to cover bad breath, gum disease, and oral health all at the same time, a sort of high tech message.

Looks like there will be a period of experimenting with the market message, and presumably also a perhaps slowish period of the world deciding how much it is going to embrace the idea of an oral probiotic. All of which will presumably be much affected by how the marketing works out. We were told of a global K12 brand, but have not heard more of that yet, unless that was meant as an interface with manufacturers rather than consumers perhaps.

But slow world uptake can still translate to high sales for Blis, as Blis is a small company.

[Oman]

..But slow world uptake can still translate to high sales for Blis, as Blis is a small company.

Quite so, but I think the LEF info indicates LEF was overly optimistic and overstocked, or they correctly stocked but the product isn't selling. Either way I take a warning that sales in the USA may be less than we had hoped for ...and that may be an indication of total sales allowing that ingredient buyers have to clear existing stocks before re-ordering more product from BLT.

The sp seems to indicate caution. About 1m on offer, but low volume and sales at 8.5cps with a surprising number of buyers with unrealistic offers below 7cps where I think the price should be now allowing for the marketing uncertainty ...but no one rushing to buy at 9cps or above.

As always we need more info to know whether to buy or sell at these 7-9cps prices but the market is 8.5cps for now.

[simla]

Can't disagree with you, Oman. It's seems bizarre that we cannot judge the popularity of a product from the internet.

[simla]

On the good news front, my daughter apparently bought some Throat Guard today at an inner city chemist in Wellington. They told her it was selling really well, and the shelf space was four boxes wide, with extra stock behind as usual. The half year results will be interesting to see.

With the previous discussion on the various different marketing messages in different countries, interesting to note that NO product in the US seems to be selling as the "Throat Guard" idea that seems to be doing well in NZ. Wonder why not.

[simla]

So, trying to put together some of these ideas on the K12 markets: (as I'm always trying to understand what the facts might be showing us.)

The appearance to me, from the internet here in NZ, is of several markets for K12 in different products and countries, roughly each one pursuing a different market message currently. That may not be what is happening - it's hard to judge from the distance - but it appears that way to me at present.

From the company's point of view, it would be pretty productive to have this. For one thing, you get to see which market message sells best. But also you get to establish K12 into several markets. It isn't necessary for one of them to be the winning market, since the company can cheerfully supply into all the markets. If perhaps LEF are looking at the health enthusiasts' market, and Epoca at the high tech market, and Animal Parade at the kid's market, and Throat Guard at the general market (a very big IF that's what they are doing, hard to say for sure from a distance) then those are all good markets to be in long term anyway. So, this arrangement would let the company find out which market will pay off the fastest, but also to sow seeds for all these markets over time.

Presumably it is a bit accidental as well. A startup company like Blis is perhaps not in much of a position to refuse customers with different marketing plans. And they might be instinctively right, too. Perhaps NZ is well suited to the general market, Japan to the high tech market, and the US to the health enthusiasts' market.

If this view of the situation is right - and it's just me trying to make sense of what I see, I don't claim this is the right view, just what it possibly looks like to me presently - it seems a pretty positive place to be. There is no reason why growth in each of those areas cannot add up to a pretty healthy initial sales push. And the market info gained obviously can lead to subsequent targetted growth.

It's a complex situation, very hard to read from a distance, and this is just one possible view. Maybe some of you guys have experience with establishing a totally new product. Do the facts look this way to you, or would you see something different here? And how long would this sort of phase go on, or is this already a foundation for the future? And is "Throat Guard" perhaps already a winning broad-market message?

I'm just trying to make a cohesive whole of what I'm seeing on the net. Trying out different market messages in different markets seems a pretty clever idea, but it's just one possible view of what we're seeing here. Other ideas anyone?

[simla]

The price cuts at LEF may perhaps simply reflect the economy rather than the product demand. After all, $20 is a pretty heavy psychological buy-in point, although a 60% cut is pretty big. But you can readily find news like this on the US internet nowadays:

"[a grocers chain] said this week it has been slashing prices up to 30 percent on thousands of food and other products at its 81 Chicago and suburban stores."

Or, "Price Wars Intensify In California: The region's big grocers, already having trimmed prices for much of the year, are gearing up for a new round as they seek to win back budget-minded customers who have migrated to discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp."

Meanwhile, I wonder where the "50-store trial, which is scheduled for Q4 2009 [at] the fifth largest general retailer in the United States" will be. California would be an obvious choice, but things are pretty tough there. Maybe Chicago or NY area? And I wonder what product they will be selling.

Wikipedia reports: "Target is the fifth-largest retailer by sales revenue in the United States, behind Wal-Mart, The Home Depot, Kroger, and Costco. The company is ranked at number 28 on the Fortune 500 as of 2008." If I read it properly, they have 1500 stores. So, are they the ones trialling K12? Let's hope it sells okay. Probably it won't show up on the net until/if they/whoever adopt it for general sale.

Interesting to note that Wikipedia also reports "Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), simply known as Costco, is the largest membership warehouse club chain in the world based on sales volume. It is the fifth largest general retailer in the United States." Seem to be a few contenders here!

[spike]

How does the US price compare the NZ for a similar product

[simla]

An interesting question, as it happens. Throat Guard sells in NZ for about $18 on line, which is about US$12 for 30 pills. But I've only just noticed that Epoca sells for 5,250 yen, which I make to be USD$57 for 40 pills. Could be a translation error, but I don't think so. In Taiwan, the Fresh Breath Kit apparently sells for $1980 (presumably Taiwanese dollars), or US$60. In NZ it sells for $43 online, or USD$30.

[fungus pudding]

An interesting question, as it happens. Throat Guard sells in NZ for about $18 on line, which is about US$12 for 30 pills. But I've only just noticed that Epoca sells for 5,250 yen, which I make to be USD$57 for 40 pills. Could be a translation error, but I don't think so. In Taiwan, the Fresh Breath Kit apparently sells for $1980 (presumably Taiwanese dollars), or US$60. In NZ it sells for $43 online, or USD$30.

What is Epoca?

[simla]

It is Spanish for epoch, but I haven't managed to figure what it means in Japan (pop 130m).

http://www.touch-express.net/epoca/
http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_txt

[emearg]

I was looking on the Natures Plus website and noticed they have at least four new products that I wasn't aware of. It is VERY interesting that three of them contain M18. These people don't muck around do they!!?!!

Nature’s Plus Ultra Lipoic
Proprietary Anti-Aging Probiotic Complex which contains S. salivarius K12
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=5220&productNumber=5220&category=29

Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
Contains S. salivarius K12 & S. salivarius M18
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=4385&productNumber=4385&category=22

Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
Contains S. salivarius M18
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=29948&productNumber=29948&category=12

Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
Contains S. salivarius K12 & S. salivarius M18
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=1120&productnumber=1120&category=4

[simla]

Great find, Emearg. So what are your hopes for the half year now?

[simla]

The Tooth Fairy and the Ultra Probiotics are very well designed products - terrific name choices and excellent presentation. Same for the Animal Parade Inner Ear. And all three push really hot buttons for some people. Blis sure are good at picking their partners and getting the product out to the marketplace.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just as a bit of an aside, I bought the throat guard today. Might have been the large number of pints of Speights, but thus far my throat feels much better........

[Oman]

... I bought the throat guard today. Might have been the large number of pints of Speights...

Hi Bob, Nice to hear from you. Did you get that BLIS in Bolivia or in NZ?

[fungus pudding]

Just as a bit of an aside, I bought the throat guard today. Might have been the large number of pints of Speights,........


That made you buy them, or made you need them.....? :D

[Sideshow Bob]

Hi Bob, Nice to hear from you. Did you get that BLIS in Bolivia or in NZ?

I was actually in Bolivia when I joined, watching an episode of the Simpsons in Spanish when I joined - hilarious!! That's where the name came from and now back in the outer Bolivian suburb of Dunedin.

[Sideshow Bob]

That made you buy them, or made you need them.....? :D

Ha ha! :) Could look at it either way!

In all seriousness, my throat is MUCH better this more after having a sore throat for 10 days. Not quite 100%, but has definitely helped, in spite of alcohol consumption probably not assisting.....

[simla]

In my opinion, with the release of a clearly saleable M18 product, the final piece of the Blis jigsaw is in place: robustness. Blis already had a lot going for it, but there remained the possibility that K12 would not prove to be much of a success on the world stage for some reason or other. But with both K12 and M18 in place, this is now a robust company in my opinion. There is a very advanced distribution network in place, and it will only grow stronger. K12 is proving a saleable product in at least Throat Guard form, and probably in the others, and M18 seems very likely to follow. We're not yet sure of the shape of the long term marketing picture, but we can be pretty confident it will be good when we look at everything else Blis has done. In sum, this now looks a robust company to me.

At the risk of being repetitive, I think Dunedin deserve hearty congratulations for their impressive work.

Yes, very obviously there is a whole lot of grind to be done yet. But my own opinion is that Blis's future has now changed from "if" to "when". Congratulations to all who made it this far. There will undoubtedly be many ups and downs to come, but watching the future unfold should be a pleasure.

[emearg]

Great find, Emearg. So what are your hopes for the half year now?

I certainly have high hopes for improvements on revenues but I won't even try to predict figures as it really is just guessing at this stage.

Last years first half was terrible. Revenue from sales weren't received until the second half which made the second half look better than it really was.

What pleased me about the new products I found on Friday is that K12 and M18 are making it in to other products as part of the blend rather than a specific product being built around them. While the quantity of K12 and/or M18 being used will be small, as will the revenue, this is a positive development in my opinion.

Revenues are growing. The company is being run very leanly. Making a profit in the next 12 months seems pretty much a given. The market will start to notice Blis and it's potential. The share price will start to reflect these factors. I suspect those who have been buying in the 4 - 10 cent range will be very well rewarded.

[neopoleII]

intersting link regarding the nature plus products.
only thing im concerned about is the miniscule amount of k12, m18 in the pills.
this could be viewed as...........
bliss is giving the product away in order to get the product out there, and await user feed back, or they are selling the miniscule volume and getting a pitance.
if you read the ingredients lists you can see its only a minor ingredient.
not untill m18 or k12 is pushed as the priority ingredient will bliss profit from the product.
long way to go yet.
i might take more positve interest if bliss themselves says they have cash orders for their products from so and so companys like nature plus.
also, these products dont really stand out from all of the 1000's of other "wellness" pills out there, all they seem to manage to do is get a few mgs into products containing 100s of mgs of 100s of varieties of "wellness" extracts.
have a close look at the ingredients.

when m18 is launched as a priority ingredient in toothpaste ........ then we're talking.

[Oman]

Too much hype and hope at present for me. When the SP settles around 7cps I'll offer to buy a few, but I really need to see the accounts to see exactly what's happening

The marketing noise and website cloning is making it look as if BLT is in the big time when reality may be that BLT is making very few ingredient sales.

Heaps of Internet ads may not be translating into many sales at all. Many site will simply be cloned sites with the same offerings.

On the positive side the k12 product is effective and presumably the M18 is too. My concern is exactly how many packets of that ingredient stuff are leaving the BLT gates?

Are we talking container loads or small post office size boxed exports?

[Chippie]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10597060

Heritage Gold is an exploration company that has been on the Coromandel for two decades and has applied for a mining licence to rework the Talisman Mine in the Karangahake Gorge.

The mine is on DoC land and Heritage executive director Peter Atkinson said the developments proved environmental issues were not insurmountable.

"We've gone from an extreme position to a more balanced one. It's not going to change things overnight, it's not going to cause an influx of companies looking for gold."

[fungus pudding]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10597060

Heritage Gold is an exploration company that has been on the Coromandel for two decades and has applied for a mining licence to rework the Talisman Mine in the Karangahake Gorge.

The mine is on DoC land and Heritage executive director Peter Atkinson said the developments proved environmental issues were not insurmountable.

"We've gone from an extreme position to a more balanced one. It's not going to change things overnight, it's not going to cause an influx of companies looking for gold."


I'm a bit lost.:confused: Do gold miners get sore throats, or do they just have bad breath?

[Oman]

I think the relevance is on page 2 of the newspaper article Funguspudding ..."The estimate of mineral wealth had been wildly overblown..."We need to be careful that a 'gold rush' mentality doesn't override good judgment..."

Make a few connections and the article is relevant even if it is a tad elusive...have to hunt around to find gold!

How's that Chippie? On target?

[Chippie]

Oops.

Wrong thread should have been HGD

sorry :)

[fungus pudding]

Oops.

Wrong thread should have been HGD

sorry :)

Better luck with the gold mining.:D

[Ponda]

Nice little line wipe (few lines) this morning.

I went to the local chemist the other day looking for BLIS products. Initially I wanted to find them for myself, but after about 10 minutes had to ask the staff. She was able to immediately take me to the products.
Two things came to mind:
1. The product doesn't jump out at you from the shelf, and,
2. The staff certainly know where the product is.

I would rather 2 than 1 as the radio advertising will be getting consumers into the chemist for BLIS.

Just an aside, I thought that shares up to 10 cents can go up in .1 increments and then from 10 cents they go up in .5's
If thats the case, how can there be a 10.4 in the sell queue.

Just my Ponderings

[emearg]

Simla? Are you ok? This thread is never this quiet!!?

Perhaps you are keeping quiet so as not to ramp up the price so you can buy some more?

Good plan! I might join you in the buying if your plan succeeds!

[neopoleII]

maybe simla has started to add up the amount of milligrams of K12 and M18 in the various pills and potions out there and realises that bliss has a long way to go to get serious turnover.

saying that many countries have bliss products forsale, and potential of those countries citizens buying those products and expolating it into potential dollar value and therfore a possiblity of a maiden profit this year, is different to the actual milligrams of product sold, or the amount of cyberspace advertising.

i have said many times........ until the big companies use bliss products as priority ingredients, or there is mass public advertising or mass consumer consuption,
bliss will not really advance as some might suggest.

having said that....... bliss does have a future, but its still a long way off.
i bought into the initial public offering, and will probably still wait a loong time to see a divi, or return to ipo sp.............

[emearg]

maybe simla has started to add up the amount of milligrams of K12 and M18 in the various pills and potions out there and realises that bliss has a long way to go to get serious turnover.

saying that many countries have bliss products forsale, and potential of those countries citizens buying those products and expolating it into potential dollar value and therfore a possiblity of a maiden profit this year, is different to the actual milligrams of product sold, or the amount of cyberspace advertising.

i have said many times........ until the big companies use bliss products as priority ingredients, or there is mass public advertising or mass consumer consuption,
bliss will not really advance as some might suggest.

having said that....... bliss does have a future, but its still a long way off.
i bought into the initial public offering, and will probably still wait a loong time to see a divi, or return to ipo sp.............

Would you care to make any predictions on the half year revenue?

[neopoleII]

the only thing i can predict is that the sp wont accelerate untill bliss is mainstream or in a mainstream product.
1/2 year revenue is dependant only on one thing....... volume of purchace by consumers, not amount of websites or pill packets on shelves in numerous countries.

[simla]

Totally agree that we need the company sales figures to tell what's happening. And I've never denied that things could go badly, and my posts often refer to the fact that things could be disappointing in the short term still.

But when I say I think there could be a maiden half year profit, it is because I think that is a reasonable conclusion. It just seems the most likely outcome to me. Last half year, I thought they would have a very small half year profit, and there was a loss of $77,000 - not a huge difference. This time, I see a better half year profit as being likely, and if so, it is more likely to be a six figure profit. The only drawback is that the first half year has not been Blis' best half year in the past, but against which must be weighed its growth.

To my mind, the milligrams don't matter too much, because bacteria weigh nothing at all. The more useful approach to me is in sales, and cost of goods sold. The cost of goods sold vs trading revenue was looking fine in the last report, so that just leaves sales.

In the 2009 year, two things happened. Firstly, Australia dropped away a lot and unexpectedly. I'm not expecting that to reverse now as they have not done so in a year and the most likely explanation for that is they have decided to make profits in other ways I would have thought. But, at the same time, US sales leapt up, not only in new manufacturers but in repeat orders. The growth in the US was enough to beat out the big dropoff of Blis' previously dominant customer in just one half year. Well, we know that Japan is now also a new manufacturer, and that there is at least another M18 product on the shelves now, plus a couple more with K12 in them. We also know that they are looking around Asia for others. Even now, this half year has not finished. When I buy Blis myself, they tell me it is selling well and they recommend it to people. The 2009 presentation said, "we anticipate another 6-10 new SKUs by end 09 fy.", which may allow for some sales to them in this half year, and "Major US Co. to undertake regional launch before October", which would require initial purchases this half year. We also know they have permission to sell yoghurt now in NZ/Aus, and that the product is stable in yoghurt now, so that could be progressing too. So, when I refer to new countries, I take into account that the US experience is of new customers generating initial revenue. I am also assuming repeat orders in the US will continue, which is hard to judge of course. Yes, revenue from initial sales is less than we hope long term, but these initial sales are still capable of covering costs.

In passing, I don't see the problem with the amount of product in the new Nature's Plus items. Tooth Fairy is entirely built around M18. And Ultra Probiotics does not look like it has a lot of patented biotics apart from K12 and M18 (but I could be wrong), which are at the bottom of the list because of weight as far as I can tell - in Tooth Fairy, for example, we are told that L. acidophilus (2 billion viable cells‡) is 150mg, while S. salivarius M18 (1 billion viable cells‡) is only 10 mg.

I have become quiet lately because of two reasons, neither of which is loss of optimism. Firstly, I got little response from a series of posts recently, which I took to mean that people would rather wait for the real figures now that things are building real-world momentum. Secondly, the appearance of M18 on the market in saleable form has largely removed the one risk I still saw with Blis, that its one product would in same way not be a success. But it is no longer a one trick pony, so that risk is gone in my opinion.

So my optimism remains in place. I totally accept that my figures are just guesses, however, and did invite people to make their own guesses. Only Chippie has done so so far, and he was going for a small profit.

[emearg]

the only thing i can predict is that the sp wont accelerate untill bliss is mainstream or in a mainstream product.

Considering the share price has doubled in the last couple of months I have trouble accepting that.

The share price will increase as they make progress towards their goals.

Lots of small sales to lots of product makers by Frutarom is going to result in increased revenues for Blis and an improved bottom line. Their success isn't solely reliant on making it big in one product. Obviously that would be excellent but it isn't the only path to success. If Blis was doing the sales, and covering the larger costs for small sales I wouldn't be saying that but in this case Frutarom are covering the costs.

I have no doubt Frutarom and Blis are trying hard to hit the mainstream but obviously not at the expense of making smaller, reoccuring sales.

The reason for seaking GRAS status in the US is to get K12 included in mainstream products.

It will be interesting to see if there is any annoucement regarding mainstream products in NZ and Aussi now that K12 can be included in foods.



1/2 year revenue is dependant only on one thing....... volume of purchace by consumers, not amount of websites or pill packets on shelves in numerous countries.

I don't agree. If K12 has been turned into a new product by the various product makers then Blis will have received revenue. If the products don't sell that will impact future revenues.

Considering the broadened international availability of products containing K12 it seems likely it will impact revenues positively. As an example, as well as being widely available on the internet, thousands of shops are selling the Natures Plus products in the US and UK.

[emearg]

I have become quiet lately because of two reasons, neither of which is loss of optimism. Firstly, I got little response from a series of posts recently, which I took to mean that people would rather wait for the real figures now that things are building real-world momentum. Secondly, the appearance of M18 on the market in saleable form has largely removed the one risk I still saw with Blis, that its one product would in same way not be a success. But it is no longer a one trick pony, so that risk is gone in my opinion.

Nah, we like hearing your thoughts Simla! Keep em coming I say!

While I didn't see Blis as being at risk of being a one hit wonder I was very pleased to see the launched of MIA/M18 sooner than expected

Having reviewed the Blis pipeline (which is below) I am wondering which will be the next thing to come to the fore?

Key areas of research include:

* Continuing development of our existing products

* Functional Foods - use of BLIS S. salivarius K12 in yoghurt preparations

* Dental caries control

* Ear infections - clinical studies are underway with the Dunedin Hospital ENT Department on the use of a paediatric formulation of BLIS K12™ for the prevention of chronic ear infections

* Tonsillitis - clinical studies are ongoing with the Dunedin Hospital ENT Department on the use of a paediatric formulation of BLIS K12™ for the prevention of recurring tonsillitis infections.

* Skin infections (including acne) - a potential candidate organism displaying good in vitro properties has been identified and in addition to medical outcomes, the cosmetic uses of such products are promising.

* Peptides produced by these strains of BLIS producing organisms have promise as templates for the design of new antibiotics.

In my mind it will be possible for Blis with it's K12 probiotic to become self funding and profitable at some level reasonably soon but for me their is sooooooo much more potential with this company that for me the shares are a keeper.

[simla]

Yes, that's definitely not a one trick pony list. But, of course, neither are they listed as completed products.

Good to hear your optimism is strong, Emearg. But is nobody willing to chance a guess on the half year results! It really boils down to a binary choice: have sales actually done well, or are we still in inching-forward mode?

[jonu]

Of equal interest to me is the identity of the mystery research investor announced in Barry's report. Fonterra? Colgate? Whoever it is they are keeping it quiet to gain competitve advantage in their field. If it wasn't likely to be a major breakthrough they wouldn't bother with the secrecy.

As far as the half year results-as long as they are tracking in the right direction I'm not too bothered, it's hardly going to be a divvy situation. I'm picking just in the black but just under is no real concern.

[simla]

I'm greatly interested in early results. If you look at an exponentially increasing curve, you soon see that getting through the early stages, where nothing much is happening, is pretty important. Any sign of increasing speed if very significant. Any noticeable increase in earnings now is very important to when you will see the other later.

Likewise, anyone who didn't care that the Blis share price just moved up 4 cents has missed out on 50% of any future capital gain they might have been hoping for - as future gains will always be half from 8 cents what they would have been from 4 cents.

[fungus pudding]

I'm greatly interested in early results. If you look at an exponentially increasing curve, you soon see that getting through the early stages, where nothing much is happening, is pretty important. Any sign of increasing speed if very significant. Any noticeable increase in earnings now is very important to when you will see the other later.

Likewise, anyone who didn't care that the Blis share price just moved up 4 cents has missed out on 50% of any future capital gain they might have been hoping for - as future gains will always be half from 8 cents what they would have been from 4 cents.

I didn't realise how bad my maths was until I tried to work that one out. :confused: So if they go to $100 that's a 99.96 gain from 4 cents, and a $99.92 gain from 8 cents. Hardly half. Bring on $100 so I can check my workings.

[neopoleII]

man...... i hope you guys are right.
my maths equals...........
buy in at $1.00.... watch it decrease over 7 or 8 years to $0.04 while averaging down,
then see a 100% jump to $0.08.
in the meantime, every punter of this stock over almost a decades timeframe has said that a maiden profit is just around the corner...........

so what my maths equals is.........

ahhhhh drats my eyes have watered over..........

i asure you fellow posters, i want this company to hit a home run big time,
because i have an obscene amount of shares.......... even though they are massivily watered down.
but have resigned to wait.
its nice though seeing the 0's expand with 1cent upwould movements, sure beats going down.

[simla]

Good to see everyone practicing their maths. Now spend $100 on shares at 4 cents, buying 2500 shares. Sell them at $100 a share (like your optimism) and get $250,000. Or spend $100 on shares at 8 cents, buying 1250 shares, which you can sell at $100 and get $125,000 for, or half what you would have got at 4 cents.

4 cents going to $100 sounds great on paper, but in practice you only get to invest the sum of money you have got available to invest. If you could afford to spend twice as much when the price doubled, then sure, you'd get the same profit in dollar terms. But in the real world, we only have so much money to invest.

I also do English and French lessons ...

[fungus pudding]

Good to see everyone practicing their maths. Now spend $100 on shares at 4 cents, buying 2500 shares. Sell them at $100 a share (like your optimism) and get $250,000. Or spend $100 on shares at 8 cents, buying 1250 shares, which you can sell at $100 and get $125,000 for, or half what you would have got at 4 cents.

4 cents going to $100 sounds great on paper, but in practice you only get to invest the sum of money you have got available to invest. If you could afford to spend twice as much when the price doubled, then sure, you'd get the same profit in dollar terms. But in the real world, we only have so much money to invest.

I also do English and French lessons ...

Well if you do English lessons you should have told Naople !! that an amount is a measure of mass or bulk, not countable things like shares. They come in numbers - not amounts.

[simla]

Putting aside some people's noun choices, and other people's spelling, I thank you, neopoleII, for being willing to back a NZ start-up company from scratch. We need people willing to do that.

I hope you've been able to use the recent low price to add to your desired future payoff, but each according to his own means and intentions, of course. Obviously my maths applies not just to initial investments but to later additions. However, as always, while I remain optimistic personally, I am not in the business of recommending purchases or sales to anyone in this group. Each to his own judgment on that one.

[emearg]

But is nobody willing to chance a guess on the half year results! It really boils down to a binary choice: have sales actually done well, or are we still in inching-forward mode?

I have reviewed last years half year and full year results and the stated reasons to try to come up with an estimate for the current years financial result based on the information at hand.

Here is my estimate...

Sales revenue:
NZ 150k
Aussi 100k
Ireland 50k
US 250k
Japan, Korea etc 100k

Total sales = 650k

Other revenue:
Licensing (Nestle) 100k
Contract Development 100k
New Consumer Group 50k
Other 50k

Total Other Revenue = 300k

Total Revenues = 950k

If this revenue was achieved I would consider it to be a truely excellent result.

[Oman]

Total Revenues = 950k

Your $950k seems okay to me Emearg. Maybe a tad high but if they hit that we'll know they're on track. Above or below a reasonable benchmark of say $900k revenue just adds more info for us.

We'll also need to look closely at the HY expenditure to see where the money is going.

[simla]

Thanks, Emearg, Oman. We're all guessing, but interesting that we are all leaning on the hopeful side despite last year being a difficult year. Over $900k gives a fair chance of a maiden half year profit, but it depends on costs, including the preference shares. I seem to be more optimistic on actual sales, while Emearg and Chippie are putting in more "other revenue". It would be a plus if we were both right.

[simla]

Here's a useful and mainly readable article about the science of the probiotics market from the point of view of manufacturers, if anyone is interested:

http://nutraceuticalsworld.com/articles/2009/05/the-promising-potential-of-prebiotics-probiotics

And this one is on "functional beverages", since Blis keeps mentioning beverages in their research aims. Example: "Probiotic pioneer The Dannon Company, White Plains, NY, expanded its Activia brand this year with two new products: Activia Dairy Drinks and Activia Fiber, both of which contain the proprietary probiotic culture Bifidus Regularis.", and "Looking to corner the children’s functional beverage market, Nestle HealthCare Nutrition, Minnetonka, MN, launched BOOST Kid Essentials Nutritionally Complete Drink. The product, designed for children ages 1 through 13, contains “immune-strengthening” probiotics delivered through the BOOST Kid Essentials straw. BOOST Kid Essentials Drink also contains 25 essential vitamins and minerals, 7 grams of protein, antioxidants and 244 calories. It is available in Chocolate, Vanilla and Strawberry flavors."

http://nutraceuticalsworld.com/articles/2009/07/functional-beverages-thriving-or-surviving

Kids Boost Drink pages, example of where this goes ("easy to hold and easy to love" - wow! good example of the sort of marketing power we might see from Nestle, too):

http://www.kidessentials.com/Pages/parents.aspx
http://www.nestlenutritionstore.com/kid-essentials.asp

[scamper]

Meanwhile, the 90-day MA keeps edging up.
It will be very jolly exciting if it closes over 9 cps today -- for the first time in two years.
Fingers crossed.

[emearg]

Meanwhile, the 90-day MA keeps edging up.
It will be very jolly exciting if it closes over 9 cps today -- for the first time in two years.
Fingers crossed.

You must be good and excited then? Closed at 9.4 cents today.

Not many being offered at a low price at the moment. 192k at 9.5 cents and then only 32k between 10 and 10.9 cents.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow...

[emearg]

While I cook dinner I am killing some time online and I just compared the depth screenshot I took on the 21st of September with todays depth. Back then, there was one selling wanting to sell 500k at 9.5 cents. Now there is one seller wanting to sell 192k at 9.5 cents. I wonder if last weeks wannabe seller reduced the number they are off loading, withdrew their entire order or sold them at a lower price?

Nothing like a little idle speculation to pass time...

[jonu]

They sold them @ 9.2 if I recall correctly

[emearg]

Good to know. I obviously haven't been watching close enough! But today I am (it is raining here) and I note all the 9.5 cent asks have been bought and the next lowest ask is 9.9 cents. Perhaps they will break the 10 cent barrier today? Getting there and staying above that level would be excellent especially if it is achieved before Blis release their first half results in late November. If that news is as positive as some of us seem to think it will be the share price should rapidly increase. BLT even runs the risk of getting out of the penny dreadful category. That would be a worry!! ;-)

[jonu]

You certainly get the feeling that momentum is building here. I'm thinking some are anticipating a preliminary report for HY results. Last year they didn't report to the market until late November.

Either way the news is spreading and some larger volumes are going through at higher prices.

[emearg]

I have revised my half year revenue estimate after re-reading the notes from the AGM presentation.

Sales revenue:
NZ 150k
Aussi 100k
Ireland 50k
US 250k
Japan, Taiwan etc 100k

Total sales = 650k

Other revenue:
Licensing (Nestle) 100k
Contract Development 100k
New Consumer Group 130k (updated)
Grants 50k (added)
Other 50k

Total Other Revenue = 430k

Total Revenues = 1.080 million

[simla]

Oops, letting that optimism creep up, Emearg...

Meanwhile, these just showed up under Recent Results for the useful search term "blis k12 -nz" (-nz to screen the large number of nz chemists' pages!):

http://www.bio-genesis.com/images/pro-flora-oral-ad.gif
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpages/pro-flora-oral-health/pro-flora-oral-health.html

I can see this product on the net at one outlet only so far, and:

http://bioguardhealth.com/Staging/images/box.jpg
http://bioguardhealth.com/Staging/index.html

I cannot see Bioguard for sale anywhere on the net yet, but Bioguard is apparently manufactured by imagenetix.net , where a press release for Aug 19 says, "BioGuard(TM) will be introduced during October 2009 in the Pacific Northwest Region in the nation's number one club warehouse", which presumably ties in with Blis' announcement of a trial in Q4 in a large US retailer.

[Cannibal]

Just gone up 10.5% to 10.5 cents!

[simla]

To save you looking, by the way, Wikipedia defines the Pacific Northwest as the Canadian province of British Columbia (pop 4m+) plus the U.S. states of Washington (pop 6.5m+)and Oregon(pop 3.6m+) (total pop 14m+) plus maybe some other areas, but including the cities of Seattle (pop 3.3m), Vancouver(pop 2.3m), and Portland (pop 0.6m). Hard to say if a US retailer would be trying out in Vancouver (Canada), but it's probably a free trade area, so maybe.

[jonu]

Yeah, who do we blame? Simla for his excellent research, or emearg for his creeping optimism? Great news all round. Another thing I like about this stock is its tendency to rise against the tide.:)

[simla]

Bit concerned about the price myself. At a PE of 15, and with 138 m shares, a 10 cent price represents an annual profit of about $1m by my maths (check it yourself as always). Now, if Blis announced a profit of maybe $250,000 half year, you might think $1m would be fine for the year (with increasing momentum as the year passes.) But that would make 10 cents maybe already fully priced for the year, wouldn't it? Of course, if they announce a half year of a lot more, fine. And if less, a loss even, then what? This is starting to look like speculators coming in perhaps? Still enjoy the ride in the meantime, I suppose.

[jonu]

I don't see it that way simla. Almost any stock on the up and coming into profitability has a considerable factor worked in for the sheer potential

[Cannibal]

Agreed Jonu. And someone else agrees too - up again - now 10.9 cents. A rise of 14.7& for the day!

[Cannibal]

Someone is bidding 11 cents - someone knows something...

[simla]

For those who noticed the new products on the last page (the topic seemed to change rather - hey, this research takes time, you know,) it's interesting to wonder what effect swine flu will have on Blis for the next half year, and with a swine flu vaccine nearly out now too. After all it's winter coming up in the northern hemisphere. We're back at the same question: is the world ready for an oral probiotic?

[emearg]

Someone is bidding 11 cents - someone knows something...

Or thinks they do! Hype is another thing that drives share prices skywards. But I think the share price has a long way to go before I will start thinking it is being driven by hype.

[jonu]

Ever the calming influence Simla!

Swineflu's a tricky one and I won't even go there, but given the onset of Northern winter, it certainly won't harm sales

[emearg]

Agreed Jonu. And someone else agrees too - up again - now 10.9 cents. A rise of 14.7& for the day!

BLT is showing up on the Stuff business page of top movers. It is the only top mover in the black (or green as they show it). All the other top movers are in the red and the Top 50 is down 0.86%

That makes me think the share price increase is about Blis rather than overall market optimism which is excellent!!

[Cannibal]

For those who noticed the new products on the last page (the topic seemed to change rather - hey, this research takes time, you know,) it's interesting to wonder what effect swine flu will have on Blis for the next half year, and with a swine flu vaccine nearly out now too. After all it's winter coming up in the northern hemisphere. We're back at the same question: is the world ready for an oral probiotic?

Apparently the world is ready!

You know you have hit the mainstream when Oprah takes notice of you. In the February 2004 issue of her magazine, O, probiotics received some much-deserved attention in an article titled, “Probiotics: The Next Big Thing?”
The article defined probiotics in layman’s terms as “live, ‘friendly’ bacteria found in food (usually yogurt); also sold as pills or powders that purport to maintain a healthy balance of bacteria, particularly in the gut.” The article went on to recommend its readers obtain probiotics through food, primarily yogurt. “Accumulating evidence backs the benefits of probiotics, and if you can get them through food, all the better. Yogurt supplies about 100 million bacteria per gram: look for labels touting live, active cultures and aim for 100 million and up per dose.”

Although the article does not detail the many potential benefits of probiotics, it does aid food manufacturers in one of their biggest challenges: consumers’ lack of knowledge about beneficial bacteria. The benefits, such as improved intestinal health, are well documented. The general consumer, however, is unfamiliar or does not understand the concept of healthy bacteria.

“The U.S. market for probiotics is extremely young, unlike the European market where there is widespread understanding of the immune-boosting and preventative benefits associated with daily yogurt consumption and probiotics,” said Mary Jo Viederman, founder, Living Out Loud Communications (Concord, N.H.), at the recent 2004 Dairy Innovation Forum sponsored by Dairy Management Inc.™ (DMI, Rosemont, Ill.).

In Europe, probiotics are set to triple in sales over the next six years, to reach $137.9 million in 2010. In contrast, the U.S. market is projected to reach $394 million, according to Frost & Sullivan (New York).

[emearg]

Swineflu's a tricky one and I won't even go there, but given the onset of Northern winter, it certainly won't harm sales

If they can successfully deliver the message that their probiotics enhance overall oral health and helps user's bodies battle off nasties it could help boost sales significantly.

To me that sounds like a big expensive ask and probably not one that can be achieved any time soon by Blis. But their customers have deep pockets and may see a return on such a marketing campaign?

[simla]

Hey, Cannibal, more research. Good stuff.

And, Jonu, it is a truth universally acknowledged that a man possessed of Pride and Prejudice is always in search of a quiet life. I fear Blis's share price will preclude that for a while now.

[simla]

Emearg, that's an interesting point. I guess as the Blis momentum gathers, it is indeed possible that someone will start investing bigger marketing dollars into it.

[emearg]

Oops, letting that optimism creep up, Emearg...

It has been creeping since the rights issue this year following the Frutatrom deal. It was high on Wednesday so I bought some more.



I can see this product on the net at one outlet only so far, and:

http://bioguardhealth.com/Staging/images/box.jpg
http://bioguardhealth.com/Staging/index.html

I cannot see Bioguard for sale anywhere on the net yet, but Bioguard is apparently manufactured by imagenetix.net , where a press release for Aug 19 says, "BioGuard(TM) will be introduced during October 2009 in the Pacific Northwest Region in the nation's number one club warehouse", which presumably ties in with Blis' announcement of a trial in Q4 in a large US retailer.

Nice find Simla. I use Google alerts and will add your particular search.

I have had a look at this site. If you take 'Staging' out of the URL you will get a different view of the site. They are obviously still developing/testing both the Staging and Production views

The site is excellent. It has a lot of information, but all of it is simple and easy to understand. They repeatedly use the phrase (or similar) "BLIS K12 immediately begins to work by destroying harmful bacteria and then replacing them with beneficial bacteria."

They stress that K12 will fight the baddies to get a place inside the host, rather than quitting if there isn't any room. Basically they make taking the product sound like a no brainer...

One of the pages explains what a probiotic is using a simple analogy:
http://bioguardhealth.com/HowItWorks.html

For the more keen reader considering the product they reference research papers:
http://bioguardhealth.com/research.html

The Production view shows that you will be able to buy the product from Costco.com

That is interesting as it suggests they will be selling it wider than just the 50 store trial from day one?

So now we know who the retailer is. Wikipedia reports that "Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), simply known as Costco, is the largest membership warehouse club chain in the world based on sales volume. It is the fifth largest general retailer in the United States." So Simla, I guess it depends on what page on Wiki you look at to get the rankings. Either way, Costco is a big fish. Actually they are the 29th biggest fish on the Fortune 500

The Production view confirms that Imagenetix WILL be making BioGuard. Here is an article on their site:
http://www.imagenetix.net/articles/2009/004_09.php

The other product, Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables has less information surrounding it.
The Clinicians Resource Paper is not aimed at Joe average.
There is a 15 second sound bite. It sounds appealing and appropriately targeted IMHO

[simla]

Very clever of you to find the real version of the website, Emearg. I did mention Costco as a possibility a few weeks ago, but my monitoring never found anything. Let's hope it sells well, as that could generate some pretty nice sales. I guess it depends how much promotion they put into it, maybe.

The good news keeps rolling for Blis. I guess the only other thing we could wish for is for the place to have actually ever made a profit... With luck, that is not far away.

[weasel]

Does anyone know why there seems to no longer be a "Blis Technologies" page on wikipedia, nor is there a "Blis" page nor "K12", and so on. In this day and age people generally turn to wikipedia as one of the most trusted (or at least somewhat objective) sources of information. I think Blis is missing a beat here. "We" used to have a page up there a while back...

[simla]

Yeah, who do we blame? Simla for his excellent research, or emearg for his creeping optimism? Great news all round. Another thing I like about this stock is its tendency to rise against the tide.:)

Actually, Jonu, the good folk in Dunedin do all the work and make all the good news happen. There's a team of them, and they work pretty hard and they're pretty talented. They might be the ones to thank! Most impressive to me is not only that any one piece of news is good, but also that somehow they find time and concentration to be working on several bits of good news at once.

So, I've said it before, but, thanks to everyone working on Blis. Along with Dunedin, these days, I think we have to also be grateful to the team at Frutarom who seem to do very good stuff, and now all the people at the manufacturers, like Nature's Plus and LEF etc, who also are obviously putting in some pretty solid work to take the probiotics to the market.

The news is looking good these days for Blis. So, thanks to all the people working hard to make it happen.

ps. But thanks for the kind words.

[simla]

We have confirmation Costco are carrying Bioguard. It is in the October Costco Connection monthly magazine, "A lifestyle magazine for Costco members", 97 pages long. There are three pages of Costco-related ads between the front cover and the table of contents page, and then the page after that has Bioguard in a half-page ad (p4), even before the editorial and letters pages, and all the other 90 odd pages. Bioguard is the first ad in the magazine not related to Costco itself, so this would suggest they are promoting it, which could be pretty good news.

http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200910#pg1

It is also on the Costco website on a page called "In the Warehouse", under health and beauty, "Products may not be available in all locations. " You can't click on it, so this presumably literally means it is in the warehouse (their shops) but not online, which ties in with what we were told about a trial perhaps.

[jonu]

I can't think where I saw it but I remember seeing somewhere a staff incentive scheme for rights if they were trading above a certain share price.

I've looked back thru old announcements and can't see it. Can anyone else recall or point me to it?:confused:

[emearg]

I can't think where I saw it but I remember seeing somewhere a staff incentive scheme for rights if they were trading above a certain share price.

I've looked back thru old announcements and can't see it. Can anyone else recall or point me to it?

I don't recall this. I suspect you are thinking of another company and not Blis?

I note on Stuff the Blis rights shot up 62.50% today. That is a healthy increase :-)

[jonu]

Thanks Emearg

SP up again this morning and sellers disappearing faster than a sore throat when you're on the k12

I think we might have reached a tipping point. She's up and off!

[simla]

Yeah, this really is starting to look like it just might be the real thing.

The whole of the next year could be pretty exciting stuff - a lot of people trying to get a seat at the same time as Blis still has a lot of potential news to hand out. Great fun for those with seats already? Let's hope so.

[emearg]

At the AGM update Barry said they had six new retail products in the US market. At that time I was only aware of four.

Barry anticipated they would have an additional six to ten new retail products by the end of the financial year. Currently I am aware of a total of eleven meaning they only have to launch one more in the next six months to meet the low end of their target.

The new products contain K12 or M18 or both.

I have looked at the products to try to quantify how much of the Blis probiotics are in each product on a per pill basis. Some of the products don't break it down by each included probiotic while some measure in milligrams or viable cells or both.

Here are the products I am aware of. Please let me know if I have missed any...

Bio-Genesis Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables - K12 - 6 mg

BioGuard - K12 - 20 mg - 1 billion viable cells

LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene - K12 - 575 million viable cells

Childrens Chewable Inner Ear - K12 - 10 mg - 1 billion viable cells

Adults Ear, Nose & Throat - K12 - 20 mg - 2 billion viable cells

Tooth Fairy - M18 - 10 mg - 1 billion viable cells

Ultra Probiotic - K12 - unknown quantity but product has 3 probiotics totalling 50 mg

Epoca - K12 - unknown quantity

Solary Oral Flora - K12 - unknown quantity

Whole Food Total Body Cleanse - K12 & M18 - unknown quantity but product has 13 probiotics totalling 2 mg (28 million viable cells)

Ultra Probiotic - K12 & M18 - unknown quantities but product has 13 probiotics totalling 120 mg

As you will note the quantities vary hugely. Having a bottle of the NZ product Throat Guard Daily on hand I note it contains 100 million viable cells where as some of the other products contain 1 - 2 billion viable cells. It may be that some of the other products are better value for NZ consumers seeking a larger dose of the probiotic?

It is good to see the new BioGuard product that is being launched by Costco at the moment contains a large quantity of K12.

It is puzzling to see that one product states their 20mg of K12 contains 1 billion viable cells where as another products 20mg contains 2 billion viable cells. I wonder what the explanation is?

[emearg]

SP up again this morning and sellers disappearing faster than a sore throat when you're on the k12

Nice one! :-)

Bids at 12 cents and offers at 15 cents. It must have been many many years since there was a such a split in the bids and offers for BLT.

It would be good to see this company do well internationally. Goodness knows we need a few more success stories. With the large holders down south we should be able to keep the company in NZ hands until at least 2012 before someone swoops in and bags themselves a bargain...

[simla]

Your comments on the actual content of each product are made more complex by the price they sell at. Ultra Probiotic is listed on Amazon for $50 , for example, while Animal Parade Inner Ear is listed at $16.

[Klink]

http://sev.prnewswire.com/banking-financial-services/20090929/3983323en_iCrossing29092009-1.html

[simla]

It seems Costco are selling Bioguard online after all:

http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11496779

The share price enquiry yesterday got the response, "We can confirm that there is no major transaction to disclose. All matters relating to progress with sale of products were reported at the AGM on 31 July 2009, and the presentation was published on NZX website." Fair comment, as the share price started going up on that date and has not stopped going up since really. I guess a share price enquiry just gives a company a public opportunity to burst any speculation that there is something new going on in the background.

[emearg]

I'm not surprised Simla for two main reasons. 1) If they are going to bother setting up a website telling potential customers all about the product why wouldn't they offer it on their online purchasing site? They obviously have the infrastructure to cope with selling the product online! 2) They said you would be able to buy it online i.e. on the BioGuard site it states you can buy it on Costco.com. If it was a shop only product it would have said buy it at Costco, but this would have been harder to manage as they are only trialling it in some Costco stores.

BioGuard wasn't to be found on their site yesterday evening so this is an overnight development.

It is unfortunate that Costco.com don't ship internationally (from what I can see) as I would like to buy some of the BioGuard. It strikes me as much better value for money than the ThroatGuard Daily product that I am currently taking. It has ten times the probiotic, two and a half times the number of tablets, and only costs approximately 50% more if/when landed in NZ.

Yesterdays share price enquiry suggested to me that the half year results might come earlier this year? Mr Kumar started at some during the 2009 financial year so perhaps he wasn't on board to prepare last years first half financials? This year with him they might get them out earlier?

[simla]

Emearg, maybe the probiotic has a wholesale price structure related to weight. There must be a price structure related to something. Someone has decided on these different amounts for some reason. But whether this matters to consumers probably depends on how many is "enough" to protect the mouth anyway, and also how fast they replicate.

[emearg]

But the excellent news in late July supercedes that. Looking at the press release of 31 July: For a starter, we were told a "substantial sum" has been paid for this unknown research "over the coming months".

The notes on the slide where this was mentioned states, "In June BLIS signed an option agreement with a global consumer Co. receiving funding of more than USD100K. This relationship is currently subject to confidentiality provisions and so the identity of the company cannot be revealed at this stage."

Having reviewed the way this was phrased, and the tense used in the press release I revised my half year estimate a couple of weeks ago as it sounds like the money has been paid to Blis.

So Simla, you were estimating 500k US sales a few months back but I gather you are thinking that is on the low side now? Do you have a new estimate?

Personally I am being cautious about the US sales revenues as Barry has made it clear that they will take time to build. I am holding my estimate at 250k but feel I am probably being conservative...

[simla]

Emearg, there isn't the slightest way of knowing what sales are going to be, of course, until we're actually told. But, yes, I am optimistic.

I start at the known fact that NZ sales have responded well to marketing efforts, which we got told in July - " NZ retail sales have more than doubled, compared to the same period in 2008" (Presentation, 31 Jul). That tells us that this stuff will sell if you put in the effort. We must assume the US manufacturers are putting in the effort.

Then we were told, "not only developing new customers in the US, but also in obtaining repeat business from its existing customers" (Press Release, 31 Jul). Well, that would suggest some repeat business should be expected. Now, that reporting period was to March, during which Blis had only been on the US market for a few months, which raises the possibility of repeat business being worthwhile in a longer period of 6 months, and with momentum building perhaps.

Also, we were told, " US sales still in the “building phase” - process takes 1-1.5 yrs." (Presentation). Well, we're only half way through that. But what are we expecting to be the end point? If sales now are only say $200k, and we are maybe half way to reasonable volumes, are we then only expecting final volumes of $400k from the US? Well, we do not know of course, but I imagine we're hoping for somewhat better than that.

And then there are the new customers. For a starter, M18 has rolled out. Then there have been other products. And then there has been the Bioguard for a large retailer, which must surely have required at least a noticeable first order.

Then, too, " Have periods of positive cash flow - yet to break-even each month." (Presentation). As I have said before, my instinct would be to read that as cash covering all outgoings, even the ones being capitalised. If so, that would be a healthy cash flow.

Finally, I add the extra activity by Nature's Plus. It seems hard to believe they would have rolled out the extra products if the first were not doing okay - although possibly they were precommitted, and equally possibly it didn't have a high marginal cost so they weren't risking much.

In summary: (a) there has been more marketing; (b) volume of sales should have increased as a natural process; (c) new products have been added. Not a bad list.

But you ask about US sales, to which I would ask, why not Asia? We know that Epoca is on the market, and may have created noticeable sales already. But also we were told, "an Asia-wide business development strategy is in place and follows a similar commercial template as that used for North America." Well, the US one bore fruit fairly quickly, perhaps things have happened in Asia too. Also, we were told, "Achieve positive cash flow by: Focusing on sales in Nth America and Asia, Growing NZ and Australian sales" (Presentation). Notice that Asia was in there, so who knows?

But it's all just a guess. And we do not know the possible added cost of any possible gains. Expenses may have been incurred, and we must assume the preferences are going to be a noticeable cost, too. Perhaps we will hear of increased income AND increased expenses, and yet again: well, not this time, folks! But my gut instinct is still for a profit of some sort finally.

[emearg]

I recall reading in one of the reports or presentations recently that the issue costs were going to be 250k. No doubt that includes the 150k the underwriters got. 160k was accounted for in the last financial year leaving perhaps 90k for the first half...

[fungus pudding]

I recall reading in one of the reports or presentations recently that the issue costs were going to be 250k. No doubt that includes the 150k the underwriters got. 160k was accounted for in the last financial year leaving perhaps 90k for the first half...


It all sounds about what I would expect from the corner dairy.

[simla]

Interesting that the bidding pressure has dropped away significantly since the price enquiry. So, either people have got cold feet, or someone actually was chasing a rumour. A text book case of, buy on the rumour, sell on the facts?

The irony is that no rumour is necessary, since Blis has already put a ton of good news on the table. The expectation is definitely mounting for Blis to turn a profit, and the price would be dampened if that yet again eluded us, which of course is possible. But even so, there are any number of news announcements that Blis could make that would still be strongly welcomed.

[emearg]

The expectation is definitely mounting for Blis to turn a profit, and the price would be dampened if that yet again eluded us, which of course is possible.

I'm not sure about that? Several contributors on here are expecting a profit but is the market in general? Perhaps the market focus is more on achieving positive cash flow? That would be more likely as Barry has made it clear that is what he is focussing on.

Or perhaps many in the market will be focusing more on significantly larger revenues than last year?

[simla]

Impossible to say, Emearg. I imagine most people are on the fence on this one. Which is where we are all sitting, too. But I only said "mounting", which is probably fair, given all the noise coming out of the kitchen these days.

Probably the most interesting piece of news we can hope to get in a few weeks is how it has gone down at Costco. If well, then the future is bright. But if not, the future will be more work.

[emearg]

Yes that will be interesting (although I wonder if we will hear anything as the time frame is very tight?) but for me the the most interesting piece of news I am looking for is what progress has been made on "protecting the Blis probiotic organism across a wider range of product applications and harsh physical conditions such as toothpaste and functional beverages"

To me, inclusion in pills is just the tip of the iceberg. Getting the probiotics into a wide range of everyday foods bought by everyday people is where the real potential lies...

We know they can do it with yoghurt so it would be great to see an annoucement around a yoghurt based product some time soon! Now they can sell it in NZ and Aussi I am sure Barry is busy working with his old dairy contacts to get a producer on board.

I have looked at all the labels in my local supermarket and there are plenty with probiotics but none with Blis probiotics.

PS, I appreciate the dialog Simla. It is good to discuss these things with others that have similar but quite different views! Cheers

[simla]

Ditto, Emearg.

Yes, this food and drink thing is fascinating. Did you see the link I had a few pages back to Nestle Boost Kid Essentials drink? Talk about potential sales! And that article yesterday (thanks, Klink, forgot to say at the time - your first post I see, welcome) said, "Probiotic dairy products are expected to command the highest market share among all the probiotic foodstuffs accounting for almost 70% in the year 2009 and reach a market size of almost $24 billion by the end of 2014".

As you say, Blis could be in that sort of thing here in NZ & Aus now. Two barriers: firstly, it is okay for yoghurt, but not milk. Well, again, Klink's article said, "the market is expected to grow at an astounding rate of almost 14% in the same period driven by the large scale acceptance of - the probiotic yogurts in spoonable single serve packs, probiotic cultured drinks in single shot packaging form and probiotic dietary supplements" - nothing to stop single spoonable serve yoghurts here except market acceptance, and only GRAS in the US which may be due soon. Or secondly, it needs protection to get into liquids. Well, was ViaShield in Nature's Plus Ultra Probiotics possibly the thing they went looking for? And anyway, the Nestle product uses the probiotic straw, which presumably is an option. Look at this: http://www.downthelane.com/store/products/biogaia-probiotic-straw.html , which would seem usable now at a price perhaps, for example.

So, Costco would be a great indication of whether people are willing to buy this type of product in the US, but the food and drink thing is a whole new ballgame.

[simla]

Actually, Emearg, there is another announcement they could make that would be pretty interesting: toothpaste.

We know M18 is out there now, and we know they are looking for help in making it stable in toothpaste (Press release July 09: "Additionally, in June 2009 the company embarked on a significant development project with a highly regarded US product research and development organisation to better protect the BLIS probiotic organism across a wider range of product applications and harsh physical conditions such as toothpaste and functional beverages.") M18 plus K12 in a toothpaste might sell pretty well.

[Cannibal]

Apologies if someone has posted this before.

Blis on 60 Minutes!

http://www.therabreath.com/about/blis_60minutes.asp

[fungus pudding]

Apologies if someone has posted this before.

Blis on 60 Minutes!

http://www.therabreath.com/about/blis_60minutes.asp

Does anyone know when that was broadcast?

[Bobby_Fischer]

5 - 6 years ago.

[barney]

You have a good memory BF.

You're probably like a lot of us long suffering shareholders and hoping that at last Blis is on the right track.However still a way to go yet.Once bitten.....

I sold out a while back and put the money into PEB but I still keep an eye on BLT.If things start to turn good I may look at getting back in at some point.But I will have to be pretty certain it's for real.

[emearg]

Good interest in the preference shares today. 6,000 sold around the $3 mark. Somebody trying to lock in the dividend payment?

Or perhaps the preference shares are looking more attractive as there is a chance the dividends won't be paid in cash but instead will be paid in shares in three years time? Am I right in thinking that option gets more and more attractive as the price of the preference shares increases?

I (well Google alerts really) found another couple of new products.

Ear Nose and Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-exec/product_id/57807/nm/Ear+Nose+and+Throat+Shield

Probiotic Plus
http://www.ultraprobioticsplus.com/

The first one similar to Nature's Plus Ear Nose and Throat Shield. This version contains other ingredients and half the K12 (it contains 10 mg or 1 billion cells). It is also half the price. I have ordered 3 units. That is 150 days worth for $43 NZ. Much cheaper than the Throat Guard I have been buying.

[simla]

Hey, that's good. I guess your optimism for the half years results just crept up a notch?

This is the VegLife one:

http://www.nutradeal.com/shared_images/076280346039.jpg

The Ultraprobiotics Plus site didn't seem to have a product image yet.

[emearg]

I guess your optimism for the half years results just crept up a notch?

New products turning up every week or three certainly won't be hurting revenues!

It is excellent to see Frutatrom and Blis make such rapid progress selling the ingredient into this market. The pill makers are showing great enthusiam for getting the probiotics into new products in quick time. I wonder how many unique manufacturers exist and how many brands they operate? I am also wondering how many pill products will be launched containing K12 and/or M18 before the market is saturated and how long it will take to reach that point?

[emearg]

Actually, Emearg, there is another announcement they could make that would be pretty interesting: toothpaste.

We know M18 is out there now, and we know they are looking for help in making it stable in toothpaste (Press release July 09: "Additionally, in June 2009 the company embarked on a significant development project with a highly regarded US product research and development organisation to better protect the BLIS probiotic organism across a wider range of product applications and harsh physical conditions such as toothpaste and functional beverages.") M18 plus K12 in a toothpaste might sell pretty well.

Yes, if they get to the point where it can be included in toothpaste then that would be significant. According to a report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc the global toothpaste market is to reach US $12.7 billion by 2012. Being included in even a tenth of a one percent of all toothpaste sold would significantly increase revenues for Blis...

The potential with beverages is too big for my little brain to cope with at this point. But then again, if they can't complete the technical work successfully my brain won't have to! That said, they have managed to achieve several of their technical challenges recently which gives me confidence e.g. no longer the need for the mouthwash before use and they have figured out how to include K12 in yoghurt.

The next few years will be interesting for Blis me thinks...

[Bobby_Fischer]

You have a good memory BF.

You're probably like a lot of us long suffering shareholders and hoping that at last Blis is on the right track.However still a way to go yet.Once bitten.....

I sold out a while back and put the money into PEB but I still keep an eye on BLT.If things start to turn good I may look at getting back in at some point.But I will have to be pretty certain it's for real.

Hi Barney. I'm still holding plenty and hoping to at least come out even in the end. Things are definitely on the up and up. Barry has made a real difference - it's a pity he wasn't in the picture a few years earlier, before BLIS burnt through all their cash. I used to post a lot on this thread as you will remember, but the enthusiasm waned (along with the share price). Fortunately you will observe, however, a new bunch of keen BLIS fans have picked up the baton. I hope your non-BLIS investments are working out for you. BF.

[Bobby_Fischer]

New products turning up every week or three certainly won't be hurting revenues!

It is excellent to see Frutatrom and Blis make such rapid progress selling the ingredient into this market. The pill makers are showing great enthusiam for getting the probiotics into new products in quick time. I wonder how many unique manufacturers exist and how many brands they operate? I am also wondering how many pill products will be launched containing K12 and/or M18 before the market is saturated and how long it will take to reach that point?

I would think that market saturation is a little way off yet. Many products on the market with Salivarius in them will help consumers become comfortable with the idea. Hopefully K12/M18 will become "must have" ingredients.

[simla]

Agree with you, Bobby, about market saturation. Also, we have to remember that the US is not usually a national market, but a whole collection of markets, so who knows what saturation means there.

On the possible news front, there are two other big ones in the air. Europe has been looked at for a while, and we might hear some more. But also India. It is a huge market that Blis have mentioned in passing a bit, suggesting that it is in their sights. And obviously more news on China would also be good, but they were saying that might be a while.

By the way, http://www.vitaglo.com/veglife.html suggests that VegLife (the new product) is connected with Solaray, who already sell Blis. As for Nature's Plus, that might suggest that Solaray have already been getting some sales with their first product if they have committed to another. You can't help thinking Solaray and LEF must be looking at M18, too.

[simla]

I've been waiting for some on-line user reviews. Finally, here's one for Animal Parade Inner Ear. It gives five stars out of five. "I bought these for my son who gets earaches sometimes..and they seem to really work and keep them away."

http://www.vitacost.com/Natures-Plus-Source-of-Life-Animal-Parade-Childrens-Chewable-Inner-Ear-Support/pd_section-pr#ProductReviews

It's only a single review, but better to open with a good review than a bad one.

[jonu]

Announcement this morning confirms much of what we have been discussing. Sounds promising in terms of the half year results and is also confirming the new range of products for the new 1st half year.

[Ponda]

Announcement this morning confirms much of what we have been discussing. Sounds promising in terms of the half year results and is also confirming the new range of products for the new 1st half year.

I agree. Shows how informative some of the posters are on this thread.

Are we in a trading holt at the moment? A buyer and a seller at 11 cents but no trades?

[emearg]

A positive annoucement but in my opinion there are two areas that are rather understated...

Barry mentions one product containing M18 and yet we know of at least three. To be fair though, only once contains a lot of the M18 and is the primary ingredient.

Barry mentions they will launch six new products by year end, and yet they have already launched seven since that target was set. At least Barry knows he isn't promising something he can't deliver! Back in July the high end of the range was ten new products. By my count they only have three to go now and five and a half months left and momentum has been building. I should imagine this target will be exceeded...

It is excellent to see a patent in Europe for M18/MIA is on it's way. That means they are well protected in NZ, Aussi, the USA and now Europe.

It is fantastic to see a patent for Micrococcus luteus in Europe is on it's way. That means they are protected in NZ and Europe. I have been wondering over the last month or so if we will have a launch of this probiotic sprung on us out of nowhere like M18 was. I think it will all depend on how they can go about including the probiotic in a skin composition product.

It is excellent to hear that their GRAS application is going well. I suspect Frutatrom are chomping at the bit to be able to market K12 as an ingredient. It would really open up a much larger market for them!

And it is excellent to see the December 2009 timeframe for Canada hasn't changed.

[simla]

That announcement was a press release. It is already on scoop and nbr, for example.

[simla]

You know, I wonder if it isn't time to start pondering on how fast Blis sales may grow. We did just get more news, after all.

The half year results will obviously help on that one. As Blis opened in in the US about a year ago now, we may get an idea of whether sales are inching up or instead gaining quite fast acceptance. The full year results will obviously help even more, since it is still early days in the US. Costco may be of significance by then, too.

But, if Blis opens in twice as many markets, or markets with twice the size, shouldn't you anyway expect sales to grow twice as fast regardless?

Yes, that one is as long as a piece of string.

But we know that Blis keeps opening in new products, and the number is surprisingly large now. Each manufacturer presumably unlocks a new population, and Blis have had a few of those. And each new product from those manufacturers should also unlock new sales, or the manufacturer would not bother to add new product - and there've been a number of new products from existing manufacturers now.

Then, on top of that, we know that Blis has opened in Japan - again, early days. And we've seen it in Taiwan to a degree. We know they are seeking regulatory approval in a number of countries, which will take time, but presumably one or two of them will come through in a bit. Canada is about to be one of them apparently. Asia and Europe are being actively worked on generally anyway. Adding new countries also must increase sales.

And then we have new products as well. Tooth Fairy is already out. Presumably other M18 products are in the pipeline. We know they are looking at toothpaste. We know they are looking at GRAS, and effectively already have that in NZ and Australia, opening the door to yoghurt, chocolate milks perhaps, and other foods. We presume they are looking at the acne thing, perhaps. And the July press release referred to, " specific work over coming months with a view to eventually bringing further BLIS probiotic products to the retail market in specific applications."

New manufacturers, new stock units, new countries, new products. There's a lot of energy coming out of Dunedin. Food for thought?

On the other hand, Blis has yet to declare any profit ever, so ... yes, this is very much just wondering at this stage. Still, the logic would seem to be there, wouldn't it?

[emearg]

Yeah, very hard to judge the length of that string...

The market reacted strongly to the news today...up 22.7%

What interested me is that we (readers of this thread) already knew most of what was announced today. The only really new stuff was about patents. It seems to me that readers of this thread might be considered well informed about the progress of Blis, and it's potential.

We all seem to be expecting much improved revenues for the half year and some are thinking there may even be a small profit.

Based on todays reaction I suspect the market reaction to the half year results (assuming they are pretty good) will be very positive and the share price will rally strongly.

I get the feeling the fact that Blis is making good progress and has obviously turned a corner is pretty much unknown to most people.

Looking at the BLTPA depth I note that there are 21,580 for sale at $3. That is an excellent price compared to the ordinary shares. Taking the dividend into account that equates to 10.8 cents per ordinary when converted. An excellent way to add half a million ordinary's to your portfolio (following conversion) if you have a spare 65k :-)

One of Clint Eastwoods characters had a good line that fits the scenario...

[emearg]

The ODT has covered yesterday's announcement:

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/78401/blis-breaks-us-market

Text below for your convenience...

Blis breaks into US market

Dunedin-based Blis Technologies yesterday revealed that United States retail chain Costco is undertaking a 50-store commercial trial of the Blis K12 probiotic product.

Costco would review the trial early next month.

If the trial was successful, the chain would do a nationwide launch of the product throughout its more than 400 stores, Blis chief executive Barry Richardson said in an interview.

"We will be doing everything possible to ensure they are happy with it. This is exciting news. It is good to see the evolution of these products. It is a good position for Blis to be in."

Blis develops and manufacturers products and ingredients for the oral healthcare market in New Zealand, Asia, Europe and the US.

The product being trialled by Costco, regarded as the fifth largest US retailer, was being sold under the brand name BioGuard.

It was developed for the US market by the publicly listed dietary supplement manufacturer Imagenetix Inc, to provide around-the-clock natural protection of the ear, nose and throat.

Dr Richardson said Imagenetix selected Blis K12 for its BioGuard because it met the high standards for both scientific support and credibility as well as being a "truly novel ingredient".

Blis provided Imagenetix with bags of stabilised bacteria which was used in the manufacture of BioGuard.

BioGuard was being sold in the dietary supplement section of Costco and was granted the status of FSA (flexible spending account).

FSA was set up by the US Government to enable US employers to provide a tax deductable and discretionary spending account for their employees to then purchase specific healthcare products and services of their own choosing.

"This is further evidence that the market strategy of focusing on the US dietary supplement market is working well for us.

"We chose to leverage our experience and knowledge from the New Zealand retail market over the past five years to assist our client companies in the US to succeed in bringing new retail products to the market."

Blis had become the recognised expert in the oral healthcare segment of the dietary supplements market, he said.

Asked to rate the Costco trial among the achievements of Blis, Dr Richardson said it was one of the big deals but there were several pending.

"The first big one was Nestle. This is the second one, and it is quite significant. With more than 400 stores in the US, they will have throughput we need to meet."

In addition to the Costco trial, US dietary supplement manufacturer Nature's Plus had successfully launched its first Blis M18 product called "Tooth Fairy", he said.

Blis M18 was an advanced oral-care probiotic which was specifically developed for the prevention of tooth decay.

Tooth Fairy was aimed at the children's oral care segment of the market and was launched in the US to coincide with the start of the new school year in early September.

Blis, and its global distribution partner Frutarom, continued to push business development activities in Asia and had just launched the first retail product in Japan to contain Blis K12.

The product, called EPOCA, was sold through the Japanese Health products distributor ISK Corporation.

Two new notices of intention to grant a patent had been received by the company from the European Patent Office, Dr Richardson said.

One notice related to Blis M18 and the associated prevention of tooth decay.

The other related to a probiotic that was still at an early state of development, but had shown to have promising antibacterial effects on skin.

Blis would announce its half-year earnings, for the six months ended September 30, late next month.

[simla]

ODT:"Costco would review the trial early next month....This is exciting news... It is a good position for Blis to be in...the US dietary supplement market is working well for us.
"...it was one of the big deals but there were several pending...The first big one was Nestle. This is the second one, and it is quite significant. With more than 400 stores in the US, they will have throughput we need to meet.

"...In addition to the Costco trial, US dietary supplement manufacturer Nature's Plus had successfully launched its first Blis M18 product called "Tooth Fairy", he said.


The thing I find most interesting about Blis' announcement is that they made it at all, when they will be announcing results shortly anyway. Much food for thought.

[emearg]

Do you care to speculate as to the reasons why it was released?

I have a few ideas and as will become clear as you read them it just pure speculation on my part.

1) Perhaps Barry and/or the board are incentivised based on the shareprice? A rising shareprice equals a good half year bonus?

2) Barry and the board own shares so will be happy to spread a bit of good news to ramp the price so they feel a bit richer on paper.

3) The publicity helps put them on the map. They are playing with the big boys so can be taken more seriously than a few years ago. Who knows if a sale or two might occur because of the press release?

4) The underwriters have an option to buy another million preference shares. Ramping the share price will make taking up their option much more of a no brainer which will equal another million bucks in the bank for Blis.

5) They are just doing their job and keeping the market informed.

The last two are the most likely in my opinion.

[spike]

Option 5

After the share price enquiry they would not like to be seen holding back information.

Also they must be starting work on the end of year accounts. You would not want to share price to rise to fast only for investers to be disapointed and have a sharp share price drop after the accounts are released.

[fungus pudding]

Option 5

You would not want to share price to rise to fast only for investers to be disapointed and have a sharp share price drop after the accounts are released.

So why would they want them to rise at all before the accounts are released?

[spike]

So why would they want them to rise at all before the accounts are released?

I dont think they do. I was discounting option 2.

[spike]

When do the The underwriters have to decide if they will take up the option to buy another million preference shares?





Do you care to speculate as to the reasons why it was released?

I have a few ideas and as will become clear as you read them it just pure speculation on my part.

1) Perhaps Barry and/or the board are incentivised based on the shareprice? A rising shareprice equals a good half year bonus?

2) Barry and the board own shares so will be happy to spread a bit of good news to ramp the price so they feel a bit richer on paper.

3) The publicity helps put them on the map. They are playing with the big boys so can be taken more seriously than a few years ago. Who knows if a sale or two might occur because of the press release?

4) The underwriters have an option to buy another million preference shares. Ramping the share price will make taking up their option much more of a no brainer which will equal another million bucks in the bank for Blis.

5) They are just doing their job and keeping the market informed.

The last two are the most likely in my opinion.

[emearg]

From memory they had a year to take them up so they expire in May(??) 2010. If they were going to take them up I would think they would want to buy them before the November 09 dividend payment but as I don't know there financial situation who knows if they can come up with the cash. If there was the liquidity in the preference shares they would be better off selling 333,333 at $3 to finance the million they have rights to. Easy money as things currently stand...

[simla]

Well, that's not the most positive list of reasons I've ever seen. Have you thought of the possibility that it is simply a good sign! Personally, I sense a disturbance in The Force...

As for the option: has anyone considered what a company that might be enjoying good cash flow and already had some money left over from a rights issue might do when also in receipt of $1m payment for an option? Next year might prove interesting.

But there you are. Apparently I can't stop being optimistic. Still, it was a pretty upbeat news release, whichever way you look at it.

[fungus pudding]

Well, that's not the most positive list of reasons I've ever seen. Have you thought of the possibility that it is simply a good sign! being optimistic.

It's not a question of whether it's a good or bad sign. It's simply asking why bother making the announcement?

[emearg]

They probably felt they had to because of reason 5. Reason 3 is a good sign. Is good PR. This is something they don't do enough of in my opinion.

What kind of disturbance?

[simla]

He said, "I sense a disturbance in The Force," before things started to get dramatic.

This doesn't sound like it is trying to dampen expectations: "it was one of the big deals but there were several pending ... With more than 400 stores in the US, they will have throughput we need to meet"

If it were me, I would only release good news a few weeks before it was due if I had even better news to release later.

However, I have no basis to say that is the case here. They may just be communicating more openly.

(And, importantly, Funguspudding, is it "Blis' announcement" or "Blis's announcement"? They both look wrong to me, even though I have been know to read Trollope.)

[fungus pudding]

(And, importantly, Funguspudding, is it "Blis' announcement" or "Blis's announcement"? They both look wrong to me, even though I have been know to read Trollope.)

Sorry, I don't know why you are asking me that. I didn't use either. But for the record, Blis's announcement is correct; or simply a Blis announcement.