BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

Thanks, Funguspudding. I was merely referring to your participation in our spelling and grammar contest of a few months ago, so I thought you would know. 'Twas I that used it, and I stand corrected.

[fungus pudding]

Thanks, Funguspudding. I was merely referring to your participation in our spelling and grammar contest of a few months ago, so I thought you would know. 'Twas I that used it, and I stand corrected.

Thanks Simla. I'm not sure which one you used, but while Blis's is correct, some authorities accept Blis' announcement. Theory being too many letter S's are confusing. So you'll sometimes see Julius' sandals, or Jesus' robes. It's not standard, and I wouldn't use it, but it would be a brave man who said it was wrong.

:D Anyway Blis's, Blis', or the price of Blis shares is more important. :D

[simla]

Glad to hear they're both in use. Current usage is my deliberate guiding principal for written English, but I was almost considering changing back to the formal rules after that uncertainty. The reason I've asked is because "Blis's" obviously comes up often on this group!

Yes, Blis's future remains the issue. It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price, as it rose for several weeks after the last press release. The question though is, what price is going too far? A while ago, I thought 10 cents was pretty fully priced. But that last announcement takes away my confidence on that, and instead leaves me with no particular idea at all, either up or down on that price.

[Cannibal]

Reason 6) BLT just got issued with a Please Explain from NZX regarding the recent share price jump for BLT and BLTPA - mebbe the results are so good that they want to avoid a repeat...

[fungus pudding]

Reason 6) BLT just got issued with a Please Explain from NZX regarding the recent share price jump for BLT and BLTPA - mebbe the results are so good that they want to avoid a repeat...


But it doesn't really say anymore than their press release of a few months ago - except to name the retailer, which is hardly a big deal given they had already identified them as being a large concern.

[simla]

I'm rather with Cannibal on this one. It wasn't that they said stuff we hadn't heard - although only if you had kept up with the Blis chat group - but that the language was pretty positive: "more than 400 stores", "one of the big deals". Reason 6 is definitely what I've been wondering about.

[fungus pudding]

I'm rather with Cannibal on this one. It wasn't that they said stuff we hadn't heard - although only if you had kept up with the Blis chat group - but that the language was pretty positive: "more than 400 stores", "one of the big deals". Reason 6 is definitely what I've been wondering about.


But what has been revealed that was't announced before in this earlier press release?

http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Press%20Releasel%20AGM%202009%20.pdf

[simla]

The tone is different. Costco are bringing the evaluation forward to one month after only 2 weeks of a 3 months trial. Blis seem to be giving us a big hint that Costco is going pretty well. And taking time out to mention M18 again might also suggest they're pretty pleased with where that is going too.

Yes, it can all be read as not that different. Except for the point of why they took time out to say this now.

And, yes, it could mean many things, and does not have to be read as particularly good news. As usual, we will find out in good time, and not before.

[Chippie]

I think Simla is correct and this can only be seen as good news. If Costco are bringing the evaluation forward is most probably because of good sales and they want to get this from all 400 stores ASAP.

Personally it is hard not to be optimistic, it really looks like all the potential has a chance to realised.

[emearg]

But what has been revealed that was't announced before in this earlier press release?

http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Press%20Releasel%20AGM%202009%20.pdf

The things that are new are:

1) A M18 product has been launched.
2) A K12 product has been launched in Japan.
3) The trial is with Costco and the product is branded Bioguard and has been manufactured by Imagenetix.
4) Bioguard has FSA eligibility.
5) Two new patents are on their way.

We knew the first four, but the market as a whole didn't.

Nice to hear that Q24 has 'promising antibacterial effects on skin'. Nothing like a natural way to take care of underarm smellness issues. Anti acne has been mentioned previously hasn't it?

[fungus pudding]

The things that are new are:

1) A M18 product has been launched.
2) A K12 product has been launched in Japan.
3) The trial is with Costco and the product is branded Bioguard and has been manufactured by Imagenetix.
4) Bioguard has FSA eligibility.
5) Two new patents are on their way.

We knew the first four, but the market as a whole didn't.



The url above is a PDF of the July press release which was widely published in newspapers to which 'the market as a whole' has access. The next week or two could be fun.

[Chippie]

Hi Guys, I just could not help myself (but there is not much to do on a rainy Sunday).

I have always made working assumptions of what kind of potential revenue could be achieved in the USA. Based on current NZ sales of approx $400Kp/a and a population of 4M people. I calculate 10 cents of revenue per head of population has been achieved (with very little marketing).

USA population of 307M x 10 cents = $30m. Off course this is a bit rich considering you need the products and distribution need to be in place.

But that being said, the data below from Costco states they have 56m cardholders. So 56m x .10 = $5.6m which could be a reasonable working assumption. As you get into the detail you could debate that we are not comparing like with like but you could also argue US$ vs NZ$ and also the fact that BLT costs are significantly lower with Costco doing all the marketing.

But all that being said, it is not unreasonable to assume potential sales through Costco alone of $2M - $5.6M p/a is possible? So I hope the 40 store trial is successful.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=83830&p=irol-homeprofile

Number of warehouses: 560(as of 09/18/09)

Areas of operation: 407 locations in 40 U.S. States & Puerto Rico;
77 locations in nine Canadian provinces;
21 locations in the United Kingdom;
6 locations in Taiwan;
7 locations in Korea;
9 locations in Japan;
1 location in Australia;
32 locations in 18 Mexican states

Membership Data (as of 8/30/09): 56.0 million cardholders
30.6 million households
21.5 million Gold Star
5.7 million Business
3.4 million Business add ons

Warehouse sizes: 73,000 to 205,000 square feet
(average 142,000 square feet)

Annual revenues
(FY09 - Ended 8/30/09): $71.4 billion

[fungus pudding]

Hi Guys, I just could not help myself (but there is not much to do on a rainy Sunday).

I have always made working assumptions of what kind of potential revenue could be achieved in the USA. Based on current NZ sales of approx $400Kp/a and a population of 4M people. I calculate 10 cents of revenue per head of population has been achieved (with very little marketing).

USA population of 307M x 10 cents = $30m. Off course this is a bit rich considering you need the products and distribution need to be in place.

But that being said, the data below from Costco states they have 56m cardholders. So 56m x .10 = $5.6m which could be a reasonable working assumption.


But many of their customers will be retailers, so they are not limited to 56m as far as I understand it. The whole thing is anyone's guess. But guessing can be an interesting pastime - even if it's not raining in my part of the world.

[simla]

Here's an unusual page in Japan. This is a six-pack of Epoca for 31,500 yen, which Google tells me is NZ$468. They also sells it in singles and threes.

http://www.takachanmarket.com/products/detail.php?product_id=17325

It beats me, guessing the implications of selling it $468 worth at a time!

[fungus pudding]

Here's an unusual page in Japan. This is a six-pack of Epoca for 31,500 yen, which Google tells me is NZ$468. They also sells it in singles and threes.

http://www.takachanmarket.com/products/detail.php?product_id=17325

It beats me, guessing the implications of selling it $468 worth at a time!


If you've ever been to a Japanese karaoke bar you'll understand the extent of their throat problems.:eek:

[jonu]

Maybe that Japanese site targets small retailers as well.

The article posted earlier in the ODT fleshes out last weeks announcement and certainly has a feel of optimism about it. Normally I would take that with a grain of salt, but Barry's style has been understated in the past, probably to the detriment of the sp. If he's sounding upbeat (and he is) it has to be a nod in the right direction.

[simla]

It seems you can buy Epoca in 1, 3, 6 and 12 month supplies in Japan. I wonder if this is a sign of what customers are asking for? The population of Japan is 130m, and it seems likely there has been at least some definite marketing from the outset. At the price it is selling at, Japanese sales may not be trivial for the half year?

http://www.regedebeaute.com/4.html

[spike]

Just over $86,000 in head and PA shares traded today which must be one of the larger turn over days. It is good to see strong buying at the current share price, but I do wonder why people buy the head share when the PA share is better value.

[emearg]

Many of the buyers of the ordinary shares today were effectively paying 3.2 cents per share more than they had to assuming they were willing to hang on to them for three years to receive all the dividend payments.

I can't think of any good reason to do that?

I suspect some ordinary share buyers don't even know that the preference shares exist.

Many others probably don't understand how they work or their advantages in terms of ranking higher should the company go belly up, dividend payments, conversion terms, and the simple fact they are currently cheaper than the ordinary shares.

I note that Costco have sold at least one unit of BioGuard as it has received it's first review. 5 out of 5 stars and favourable words. As Simla noted a few days back for another product one shouldn't read too much into a single review, but it is good to have a positive first review!

I am really wondering how much revenue and/or profit the market as a whole is expecting for the first half results considering the recent rapid rise of the share prices. Several thread contributors here have made their guesses, but what does Joe average expect?

[spike]

I'm in for the long haul so, profit at this point is not the most important goal. I would rather they spend a bit more and increased their range and developed new customers and focused on the two to three year goal. Currently I like all the sound coming of the company! If there is a profit then that will be an extra bonus.




Many of the buyers of the ordinary shares today were effectively paying 3.2 cents per share more than they had to assuming they were willing to hang on to them for three years to receive all the dividend payments.

I can't think of any good reason to do that?

I suspect some ordinary share buyers don't even know that the preference shares exist.

Many others probably don't understand how they work or their advantages in terms of ranking higher should the company go belly up, dividend payments, conversion terms, and the simple fact they are currently cheaper than the ordinary shares.

I note that Costco have sold at least one unit of BioGuard as it has received it's first review. 5 out of 5 stars and favourable words. As Simla noted a few days back for another product one shouldn't read too much into a single review, but it is good to have a positive first review!

I am really wondering how much revenue and/or profit the market as a whole is expecting for the first half results considering the recent rapid rise of the share prices. Several thread contributors here have made their guesses, but what does Joe average expect?

[weasel]

I note that Costco have sold at least one unit of BioGuard as it has received it's first review

Not necessarily - I can also write a review, as I registered for a username on their website. But as you say, 5/5, a good start.

[simla]

Not so straightforward, Emearg. 3.2 cents (I assume you're right) per 138m ordinary shares is $4.4m, so the ordinary shares will be ahead if the company pays out more than $4.4m in dividends over the next 3 years, ie $1.1m pa average. (I ignore tax, for ease.) Many will hope that will happen. Also, they may expect speculators to take the ordinaries to places the preferences shares won't go, as the current price shows. Plus issues like which is more liquid to sell.

And, of course, people HAVE started snapping up the prefs lately. Anyway, either way, it's quite fun watching the psychology of people twigging on to an upcoming stock.

[emearg]

Hi Simla. I'm sorry but I'm a bit slow and don't understand your first sentence so can you please expand on it?

For the record, my logic was:

Option 1) Buy 1 preference share for $3. Over three years a total of $0.30 will be paid in dividends. This effectively bring the buy price down to 2.70. At the end of three years it will convert into 25 ordinary shares (or more if the company doesn't perform). This equals $0.108 cent per share.
N.B. This doesn't take into account any tax payable on the dividends.

Option 2) Buy 25 ordinary shares at $0.14 each which totals $3.50

The person picking option 2 will have paid $0.80 more for their 25 ordinary shares.

Also, if they bought a large number they may have also paid more in brokerage as the value traded will be greater.

Regarding the liquidity issue I kinda took it out of the equation in my example posted earlier by assuming buyers would hold the share for the full three years and therefore receive all 6 dividend payments and following the last payment the preference shares would be converted into ordinaries. Liquidity is too hard to predict and will quite possibly vary on a day by day basis.

For the record it isn't just people twigging on to an upcoming stock who are buying. I twigged ages ago...

Cheers

[simla]

The $4.4m was simply saying that the ordinaries would still be the better buy in that case if there are at least 3.2 cents in dividends during the three years that the preference shares are not eligible for those, which hardly seems an impossible payout. $4.4m is the cost to the company of paying 3.2 cents to 138m shares over those three years, to make it easier to compare to what sales Blis would have to achieve to be able to pay that.

I wondered a few days ago whether the sheer number of sales outlets, products and target population couldn't produce a good lift in sales regardless of any slow takeup in any given sales market. And Chippie pointed out that Costco alone could produce sales in the millions for Costco without requiring big takeup - 10 cents per head only needs 0.5% of Costco customers to buy one bottle in a year (at $18 a bottle), which surely could easily be exceeded quite quickly. And likewise, selling in 400 stores might reasonably instantly produce 8 times the sales of selling in 50 stores, mightn't it? And with a pack of Epoca selling for over NZ$70, sales of $1m would require only 15,000 units sold, in a country with 130m people and a lot of hygiene consciousness. It is anybody's guess what Blis receives from that $70, but it seems likely to be more than for the VegLife one selling for around US$10. VegLife might sell very well at that price, on the other hand.

It is all imponderable, but it seems to me there is room for surprise on the upside here. Further, we don't even need the half year result to be a big profit, as news of sales since then would be just as meaningful. Guessing a fair share price currently seems impossible to me. The range of possible financial outcomes seems pretty wide - all the way from a very disappointing "you've got to be joking" to a staggering "you've got to be joking"!

[emearg]

The $4.4m was simply saying that the ordinaries would still be the better buy in that case if there are at least 3.2 cents in dividends during the three years that the preference shares are not eligible for those, which hardly seems an impossible payout. $4.4m is the cost to the company of paying 3.2 cents to 138m shares over those three years, to make it easier to compare to what sales Blis would have to achieve to be able to pay that.

Thanks for explaining that Simla. I understand now.

I hadn't taken the possibility of a dividend being paid on the ordinary shares into consideration. It never even entered my head. While it seems unlikely, who knows what might happen if their sales increase rapidly but they keep their costs low? We know that Barry is running a very lean ship and has outsourced just about everything and the probiotics when sold as ingredients have excellent margins so I won't discount the possibility of a dividend within the next two and a half years...

[simla]

Oh, I'm more optimistic than that, Emearg. If sales are ever going to take off, I can't see why they shouldn't do so over the next year. Once the stuff is for sale in a large range of products all over the world - which IS the plan for the next year, isn't it? - then either it will sell or it won't. Not a great deal to be done then if it doesn't, except throw a lot of marketing money at it. So, if you are expecting Blis to prosper, I see no reason why it shouldn't happen soonish. The only question then would be whether Blis has other uses for the money than dividends. Personally, I'm hoping for more than 3 cents dividend in the next 3 years.

[spike]

Are you able to convert the PA share early?
I would also expect if there was a dividend the PA share would get the dividend caculated at 25 * normal share




The $4.4m was simply saying that the ordinaries would still be the better buy in that case if there are at least 3.2 cents in dividends during the three years that the preference shares are not eligible for those, which hardly seems an impossible payout. $4.4m is the cost to the company of paying 3.2 cents to 138m shares over those three years, to make it easier to compare to what sales Blis would have to achieve to be able to pay that.

I wondered a few days ago whether the sheer number of sales outlets, products and target population couldn't produce a good lift in sales regardless of any slow takeup in any given sales market. And Chippie pointed out that Costco alone could produce sales in the millions for Costco without requiring big takeup - 10 cents per head only needs 0.5% of Costco customers to buy one bottle in a year (at $18 a bottle), which surely could easily be exceeded quite quickly. And likewise, selling in 400 stores might reasonably instantly produce 8 times the sales of selling in 50 stores, mightn't it? And with a pack of Epoca selling for over NZ$70, sales of $1m would require only 15,000 units sold, in a country with 130m people and a lot of hygiene consciousness. It is anybody's guess what Blis receives from that $70, but it seems likely to be more than for the VegLife one selling for around US$10. VegLife might sell very well at that price, on the other hand.

It is all imponderable, but it seems to me there is room for surprise on the upside here. Further, we don't even need the half year result to be a big profit, as news of sales since then would be just as meaningful. Guessing a fair share price currently seems impossible to me. The range of possible financial outcomes seems pretty wide - all the way from a very disappointing "you've got to be joking" to a staggering "you've got to be joking"!

[emearg]

Oh, I'm more optimistic than that, Emearg. If sales are ever going to take off, I can't see why they shouldn't do so over the next year. Once the stuff is for sale in a large range of products all over the world - which IS the plan for the next year, isn't it? - then either it will sell or it won't. Not a great deal to be done then if it doesn't, except throw a lot of marketing money at it. So, if you are expecting Blis to prosper, I see no reason why it shouldn't happen soonish. The only question then would be whether Blis has other uses for the money than dividends. Personally, I'm hoping for more than 3 cents dividend in the next 3 years.

I don't disagree that sales will take off over the next year, but I think it will just be the start of things to come. The reason I say this is because at the moment that are pretty much just including K12 (and very recently) M18 in pills.

No matter how many products it gets into it is a smallish market. Ok, it is worth billions as a whole, but Blis will only see a small portion of that.

The big time will come when it is included in other products e.g. yoghurt, toothpaste, milkpowder, drinks etc etc.

That is where excess cash will be spent I would think?

Before success occurs in these other areas some, many or all of the following have to occur:
1) Product stablisation i.e. they need to get the probiotics into the products successfully
2) Regulatory approval to add K12 and/or M18 into health products in the large, as yet untapped markets e.g. China, India and little ole Canada
3) Regulatory approval to add K12 and/or M18 as an ingredient in a particular market
4) Regulatory approval to have K12 and/or M18 as a listable ingredient in a particular market
5) Patent protection. K12 is reasonably well protected but M18 isn't yet.
6) Get buy in from their customers i.e. they need their customers to want to design/make/market products based that include Blis probiotics

And all these things will take time and money which may not leave much over for dividends?

[simla]

Spike, I cannot see the terms of the Preference shares anywhere on the Blis website for some reason (maybe I missed it) but the Independent advisor report covers a lot of it anyway, and is here: http://blis.co.nz/?go=News . My own understanding is that the preference shares have a 10% dividend paid semi-annually (probably paid in cash on time, but could accumulate instead if the company chooses), and I'm not expecting any other dividend to attach to my prefs until mandatory conversion in about 2.5 years, nor to be able to convert them beforehand, nor vote with them until then. Does anyone understand it differently to that? As a practical matter, for some reason or other I expect any imputation credits to only attach to the ordinary dividends, not the prefs - does anyone know the right answer to that?

Emearg, I agree with you totally. But the question is one of scale. When all those things happen (China, Canada, food, drinks, M18, etc) then how much revenue might be expected? Do we need to reach that level (which seems potentially pretty big to me) before a serviceable dividend would be warranted? A 1 cent dividend on 138m ordinary shares costs $1.38m. Obviously the Board will put future development first, but does Blis have to achieve total world domination before it has enough cash to pay for that without going broke? Remember too that there are shareholders like the University who will like to see a return on their money, not to mention most other shareholders.

[emearg]

BLIS IAR 12 Mar 09.pdf is available on the Blis site somewhere because I downloaded it a couple of weeks ago. I can't remember which page it was on, and their news is spread over several sections which makes finding things again really hard!

I have searched on the word dividend, and there are plenty of mentions but they all relate to dividend payments for the preference shares i.e. the 10% pa dividend paid twice a year. There is no mention of the preference shares receiving a dividend should the ordinaries receive one.

There is a mention of what will happen should any of the dividends not be paid in cash. Here is the section:
the Preference Shares will pay a gross dividend of 10% per annum paid semiannually, with any unpaid dividends on the conversion date satisfied by the issue of ordinary shares on the conversion terms

I am hoping they don't pay the dividends in cash because receiving 25 ordinaries for every $1 of dividend due really appeals as the ordinary shares continue to increase in value!

[xynz]

According to BLT, their K12 is being marketed in the US by Imagenetix:


This product is currently being sold through the giant US retailer [Costco]under the brand called BioGuard™ and was developed for the US market by the publicly-listed dietary supplement manufacturer, Imagenetix Inc. ..... According to Imagenetix the BLIS K12, in their BioGuard™ product was selected as the key active ingredient for their product.....

Imagenetix isn't doing so well:

http://bit.ly/3IGAc0

The only reason why they turned a profit in 2009, is because they got a USD1.75 million settlement from a trademark infringement lawsuit, where they claimed USD$2.75 BILLION in damages:

http://bit.ly/1AKXlL

This settlement is listed in the "Total Other Income" entry for 2009:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=IAGX.OB&annual



Disclosure: Holding 10K BLT

[emearg]

According to BLT, their K12 is being marketed in the US by Imagenetix:

I think you need to re-read the annoucement?

The product was developed by Imagenetix.

They are a dietary supplement manufacturer. Based on Barry's words in the ODT it seems very reasonable to think they are also manufacturing the finished product for Costco on a ongoing basis.

There is no mention of them conducting any marketing for BioGuard in the Blis annoucement nor on Imagenetix's website.

Costco are the ones selling the product and running the marketing programme.

Or have I missed something?

[xynz]

I think you need to re-read the annoucement?

The product was developed by Imagenetix.

They are a dietary supplement manufacturer. Based on Barry's words in the ODT it seems very reasonable to think they are also manufacturing the finished product for Costco on a ongoing basis.

There is no mention of them conducting any marketing for BioGuard in the Blis annoucement nor on Imagenetix's website.

Costco are the ones selling the product and running the marketing programme.

Or have I missed something?

In the US, when a company is putting a product out into the market, then they are said to be "marketing that product". Imagenetix will be producing Biogard with K12 in it; they will also putting it out into the market (marketing it):


According to Imagenetix the BLIS K12, in their BioGuard™ product


In the US sense, Imagenetix will be marketing BioGuard along with their other products:

http://www.imagenetix.net/


Costco is one of many large US warehouse retailers (like BJs and Sam's Club). Costco is NOT like the Warehouse in NZ. They don't advertise on TV. The only promotional campaigns run by Costco are periodic releases of discount coupon books like these:

http://bit.ly/2SsvGN

In the advertising sense, Costco is not going to be "marketing" Bioguard. Costco will simply be stocking Biogard in the same section of its stores where it sells vitamins, toiletries and other over the counter cold remedies (from other manufacturers).

In that section of its store, Costco might put up a poster to inform its customers of the new Bioguard item and it might include BioGuard in one of its discount coupon books....but that will be the extent of Costco's "marketing" of Bioguard (in the advertising sense). If Costco were planning to sell Bioguard under its Kirkland brand, then I think we would have heard about it.

On the basis of the data that I've cited from yahoo finance, in the BLT->Imagenetix->Costco->market chain, Imagenetix seems to be a very weak link (IMHO). If Imagenetix goes under, then Bioguard will disappear from the Costco shelves.

Disclosure: holding 10K BLT

[simla]

I saw the state of Imagenetix at the time we found Bioguard. But they did not sound on the ropes to me, just small and upcoming: http://www.imagenetix.net/investors_summary.php, which is still not the same as big and secure though. And in the news release on their site describing Bioguard, http://www.imagenetix.net/articles/2009/004_09.php, they also say, "InflameAway Celadrin® extra strength soft gels for joint health are currently available at the nation's number one drug chain, the number one and number two supermarket stores and the number one club warehouse store".

Your point about marketing is a good one. However, we know that a half-page ad for Bioguard was on page 4 of the October Costco Connection magazine, http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200910#pg7 , which presumably is one of Costco's main marketing tools. Costco must do some promotion or they would go out of business. I wonder who paid for that ad - at least someone did. It will be interesting to see the November edition. Also, there is perhaps not the same need to promote something when millions of people are going to come to the store and see it anyway, which is perhaps the main way Costco expect people to buy their products in general?

It's a good point though, Xynz. My main source of confidence on this is that Blis have a good track record of picking partners so far, and probably Blis have a backup plan too. Time will tell, as usual with Blis.

[xynz]

I saw the state of Imagenetix at the time we found Bioguard. But they did not sound on the ropes to me, just small and upcoming:......"InflameAway Celadrin® extra strength soft gels for joint health are currently available at the nation's number one drug chain, the number one and number two supermarket stores and the number one club warehouse store".

Which means that their cash flow is bad, in spite of the fact that one of their flagship products is already being marketed in "the nation's number one drug chain, the number one and number two supermarket[s] .....".






Your point about marketing is a good one. However, we know that a half-page ad for Bioguard was on page 4 of the October Costco Connection magazine, http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200910#pg7 , which presumably is one of Costco's main marketing tools. Costco must do some promotion or they would go out of business.

When I was living in the US, I saw plenty of the Costco coupon books, but this is the first time I've heard of their Connection magazine. Thanks for the tip. From my personal experience with other Costco shoppers in the US: the coupon book, word of mouth and "grazing" through the store were the main reasons why Costco shoppers tried new products. An admittedly small sample; but personal experience with the companies involved is an invaluable addition to share market research.



I wonder who paid for that ad - at least someone did.

That is a very good and relevant question.



It will be interesting to see the November edition.

When it comes out, will you please post a link here?



Also, there is perhaps not the same need to promote something when millions of people are going to come to the store and see it anyway, which is perhaps the main way Costco expect people to buy their products in general?

As I alluded to above, that is precisely the way most products are "marketed" at Costco. Essentially, the effectiveness of Bioguard and its perceived value at its price point will be the impetus for any word of mouth campaign in its favor. IF it starts flying off the shelves, then Costco will take notice and expand its availability (and their minimal promotion).



It's a good point though, Xynz. My main source of confidence on this is that Blis have a good track record of picking partners so far, and probably Blis have a backup plan too. Time will tell, as usual with Blis.

Thanks. Costco as a real partner would have been a huge coup for Blis. Imagenetix? Not so much (IMHO).

Disclosure: Holding 10K BLT

[simla]

Xynz, it's great to have someone with first hand experience of Costco to tell us how it works. Thanks.

(And anyone else with personal experience: I'm still trying to work out what the name Epoca (or Epoka) means to a Japanese person - is it perhaps in Romaji, the spelling of Japanese in English characters?)

The Costco Connection magazine appears to be 2 monthly, so we may have to wait till December perhaps. Here's a bit of a review though (Feb 09): http://www.terrella.com/2009/02/02/custom-publishing-review-the-costco-connection/

"As a long-time Costco member, I’m well-acquainted with The Costco Connection, Costco’s brand community publication with print distribution of more than 5 million (and a website)." ... "With a colorful, jam-packed format, The Costco Connection engages members with lively content while at the same time it unleashes a barrage of product placements, advertisements, and customer service pages (such as listings of Costco gas station locations). This approach certainly reflects the Costco brand, which exudes an enthusiastic but utilitarian consumerism that shouts: “Do NOT leave the warehouse without spending at least $200!” ... "The Costco Connection goes a long way in achieving the potential of brand community media. It’s a fine publication. But in the continuum from brand-focused to consumer-focused content, it falls somewhere in the middle and as such it leaves some marketing value on the table. Considering the vast number of copies it distributes, Costco selects its editorial content for broad appeal and easy reading. This makes it a quick read, and for me personally, less engaging than it could be. Still, I wouldn’t change a thing about The Costco Connection! As a flagship promotional vehicle, it works."

And Imagenetix may just be using their cash, rather like Blis, rather than not having enough. The same page that announced Bioguard there, said this: http://www.imagenetix.net/articles/2009/004_09.php

"Going forward, Imagenetix plans to expand its current successful 15 and 30 second television ad spots for InflameAway Celadrin® to national audiences via cable as its primary driver of retail turnover. Starting August 10th, InflameAway Celadrin® can be seen on networks such as FOX News, CNN, USA and Hallmark. The spots will emphasize the theme of InflameAway Celadrin® being "6x Faster and More Effective" than Glucosamine and Chondroitin in promoting joint health. The campaign will also include compelling "actual user" testimonials as further evidence of brand performance and efficacy. This consumer campaign is intended to position InflameAway Celadrin® for rapid acceptance during the balance of this year and into 2010 - with the goal of obtaining loyal advocates of InflameAway Celadrin®. Repeat customers, product compliance and beneficial results are core strengths of the InflameAway Celadrin® brand."

Will they take the same approach to Bioguard? They do seem to know a bit about marketing.

(For those interested in Celadrin - I know nothing of it's effectiveness, just mentioning it, not recommending it - it is for sale in NZ on the web )

Good point that Costco would be a better/bigger Blis partner, but I'm not entirely sure that we know exactly how much they are or are not involved in this deal. They must have at least cooperated with it.

And, when you say, "IF it starts flying off the shelves, then Costco will take notice and expand its availability (and their minimal promotion)." - maybe, just maybe, that is what has happened in Costco bringing the Bioguard review forward to expand to 400 stores??

But thanks, Xynz, all good discussion. I cannot possibly judge Imagenetix personally, of course, but time (again!) will tell how they work out for Blis.

[emearg]

Thanks Xynz for educating me on the way the lingo is used and how things are done in the States.

Having done a little investigation on the web I see the bioguardhealth.com is in fact run by Imagenetix and not Costco as I originally thought. For anybody interested in seeing how the website is doing, here is a data file from their webserver:

http://bioguardhealth.com/awstats/data/awstats102009.bioguardhealth.com.txt

Being a small company I am sure Imagenetix are mighty motivated to see that BioGuard is a success.

If Imagenetix falls over that won't be great, but this is always a risk, even with the largest players.

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/announcements/2990417/BLT-Appendix-7-22-October-2009 shows we will be getting the first preference shares dividend payment paid in cash on the 13th of November.

[emearg]

Costco is one of many large US warehouse retailers (like BJs and Sam's Club). Costco is NOT like the Warehouse in NZ. They don't advertise on TV. The only promotional campaigns run by Costco are periodic releases of discount coupon books like these:

http://bit.ly/2SsvGN

In the advertising sense, Costco is not going to be "marketing" Bioguard. Costco will simply be stocking Biogard in the same section of its stores where it sells vitamins, toiletries and other over the counter cold remedies (from other manufacturers).

In that section of its store, Costco might put up a poster to inform its customers of the new Bioguard item and it might include BioGuard in one of its discount coupon books....but that will be the extent of Costco's "marketing" of Bioguard (in the advertising sense). If Costco were planning to sell Bioguard under its Kirkland brand, then I think we would have heard about it.


I created a Costco account a couple of weeks ago hoping to order some BioGuard (but they don't seem to ship to NZ) and ever since I have been receiving emails most, if not all days marketing various products.

Today's email, as chance would have it, includes a photo (the one that has the BioGuard product in it and the text 'Ideal for Work, School and Traver - Boost your Immune System') and the following text:
BioGuard™ Advanced Probiotic Protection Clinically Proven $18.99

Clicking on it takes you to the product page on the Costco website...

[simla]

Very proactive, Emearg. However, your experiment also raises the possibility that many of their members may be no more serious than you!

We thought the last announcement was good, but interesting that the market does not seem to have reacted that way this week. Are we letting our optimism get the upper hand a bit since the share price rose so much after the July announcement? Perhaps we've subconsciously taken that on board as more "news" too, whereas those buyers know no more than what Blis has announced. The news we are hearing seems good, but we also know that Blis is undertaking a huge project in total, with a long way to travel yet.

It is likely 5 weeks to the half year result now. As I've remarked any number of times in the past, the Blis share price means nothing until it is finally underpinned by reliable profit. And, as I've also remarked a few times, I personally expect speculators may dominate the share price for a while too, both ups and downs. We may have to wait for the regular dividend phase to really find out what Blis is worth, and that may be a while yet!

Still, the Blis share has never been a sure thing before, and that's what makes it interesting. The day Blis finally seems like a predictable share will probably take all the fun out of it for us.

[emearg]

Very proactive, Emearg. However, your experiment also raises the possibility that many of their members may be no more serious than you!

Why do you think I wasn't serious? I joined up so I could order BioGuard only to find that they don't ship to NZ. Otherwise I would now be one of their customers...

I suspect if you were to dig, Costco may produce figures around the number of active buyers versus email recipients in much the same way Telecom reports on the number of active mobiles versus glovebox mobiles (or at least they used to back in the day when I held TEL shares)


We thought the last announcement was good, but interesting that the market does not seem to have reacted that way this week. Are we letting our optimism get the upper hand a bit since the share price rose so much after the July announcement? Perhaps we've subconsciously taken that on board as more "news" too, whereas those buyers know no more than what Blis has announced. The news we are hearing seems good, but we also know that Blis is undertaking a huge project in total, with a long way to travel yet.

Actually I thought the share would fall back considerably this week but it managed to hang in there. I think we can afford to be optimist that Blis is on the right track but exactly how far up the track they have gotten is very hard to gauge without some figures.


It is likely 5 weeks to the half year result now. As I've remarked any number of times in the past, the Blis share price means nothing until it is finally underpinned by reliable profit. And, as I've also remarked a few times, I personally expect speculators may dominate the share price for a while too, both ups and downs. We may have to wait for the regular dividend phase to really find out what Blis is worth, and that may be a while yet!

Profit? I want their growth potential to be clearly demonstrate by the figures! I reckon that will drive the share price higher much more effectively than a small repeatable profit.


Still, the Blis share has never been a sure thing before, and that's what makes it interesting. The day Blis finally seems like a predictable share will probably take all the fun out of it for us.

Fun? This is serious stuff my thread friend! Personally I am active on this thread, and do a lot of research of Blis because the market analysts don't bother with Blis, and the media are pretty useless with small companies like Blis and don't report much beyond company press releases.

Actually I will be very happy to have the fun taken out of this if that means the share goes over $1. I will then find other ways to have fun :-)

xynz's post last week made me think it may not just be Costco selling BioGuard. I have found that Quick2you.com are also selling it, and for $29.99 (Costco is $18.99)

If you want some here is the link:
http://www.quick2you.com/store/index.cfm?frm=details&piid=1250

It seems likely this product will become more widely available on the net in the coming weeks/months which I can only see as positive.

[emearg]

I've just had a nosey on Amazon and I see that BioGuard is being offered in packs of two for $69.99. TradecoZone are the sellers.

I have also searched on the four Natures Plus products that I know about and they are all being offered by at least one seller.

It pleases me to see these products being sold as widely as they are, especially through popular portal sites like Amazon.com. A bigger audience will equal bigger sales which of course equals bigger revenues for Blis. They may not be big sellers, but anything is better than nothing which is where things were at twelve months ago...

[simla]

Yes, of course it's serious. But, go on, Emearg. Admit it, you're having fun too! One of the things I like about this thread is that most posters accept that we do not know the end to this story. Yes, we all hope it's going to be great, but I can't think of anyone who hasn't sooner or later cheerfully admitted that anything could happen. I don't think there's too much danger of this share becoming boring any time soon.

[simla]

Sorry, Emearg, There you are giving us yet more encouraging short term news, and as usual I'm slipping into looking to the future. Last week made me reflect again on just how far Blis has got in it's travels, and I see that there is probably a long journey to come yet. The seemingly successful launch in the US is, after all, just the first concrete result of a strategy announced 3 years ago. The 2006 report told of the plan to develop international alliances, a plan that has been very well followed since. But there have been many more announcements since then, which will very likely come to fruition too. And probably more developments we do not know of yet, too. But it will all take time. I think the story will be a fascinating one as it unfolds, but we are nowhere near the end of that story.

Certainly, though, the current news out of the US is now painting a very consistent picture that people on the supply side are very happy to run with K12. The sales figures will tell us about actual demand. I wonder how clear a picture we will get in a few weeks time, though, given that a lot of this has gained momentum after the half year ended. Clear news would be welcome, as always.

[simla]

Actually I will be very happy to have the fun taken out of this if that means the share goes over $1. I will then find other ways to have fun :-)

Hey, does that make me the most optimistic person here again? $1 "only" requires a profit of $16m for 238m shares at a PE of 15, doesn't it? $16m from a market of 2 billion people, say, is only $32,000 profit from a country the size of NZ? Corrections to the mathematics welcome as always.

It all takes time though, and as noted, who knows if that will ever happen. And as noted, nothing boring about the Blis share. Well done for thinking of looking elsewhere for Bioguard.

[emearg]

I think by the time Blis makes a $16m profit there will be 313m shares i.e. the preference shares will have been converted.

If we are going to speculate (or should that be fantasise as you find it such fun? ;-) ) about these things we should try to keep it a little real.

I don't know if you are the most optimistic person here. Quite possibly...

Have you bought more Blis shares recently? Is your optimism translating into investigating more cash?

[simla]

Sorry, how do you get 313m? Aren't there $3m prefs and $1m option, times 25 = 100m shares on conversion, plus 138m existing = 238m? Not sure they will have converted by then though, as the prefs miss out on three years' dividends.

No, I'm not buying. I accumulated over 2 or 3 years - yes, all that time I was being optimistic, I was acting on it too - so mathematically I can't change things much now. Of course, I'd like to tell you I bought millions of dollars worth in that time, but, alas, I am only a person of ordinary means. So, now I'm just sitting back and ... having fun watching.

[emearg]

Sorry, how do you get 313m? Aren't there $3m prefs and $1m option, times 25 = 100m shares on conversion, plus 138m existing = 238m?

Sorry, I started with your 238 (thinking you hadn't included the prefs) and then added on 75 million for the preference shares. I didn't include the extra options as they have yet to be taken up, although it seems like a given they will be considering the instant gain (on paper at least).

Right, your figures look good :-)

I have been buying over the past 6 months. Does that make me optimistic? More optimistic than you? Hehe, hard to know without more dialogue which I suspect neither of us would want to have over such an open forum!


Not sure they will have converted by then though, as the prefs miss out on three years' dividends.

As I understand it the preference shares are the only type of Blis share sure to receive three years worth of dividends (unless Blis goes under of course)

You are pretty sure there will be enough profit to allow a dividend payment on the ordinary shares!!? Three year worth? They better hurry up on the profit front then...

I find this strange as being profitable isn't Barries priority. He wants to be cash flow positive asap. Correct me if I am wrong (and I probably am NOT being an accountant and all), the two things aren't the same and one isn't always linked with the other?

[simla]

Where could dividends come from? Costco's many many millions of customers. Nature's Plus etc being for sale in hundreds of shops seemingly, and all over the net. US consumption growing anyway. Canada coming on tap. M18 being snapped up and rolled out. The launch of "food" products, like chocolate milk and yoghurt. Japan's 130m population. South Korea and Taiwan being near. China opening sometime, probably not too far distant. Nestle coming on tap. Europe opening. Possibly opening in other parts of SE Asia. Is India in the mix? And there is at least one more probiotic in the wings apparently.

It's quite a list.

I do understand the idea that costs will eat up the profits. But if there is no profit after opening in that lot, is there ever going to be any profit? So, I would reverse the question: why do you expect there will not be at least 1.2 cents per share profit in the next 3 years? (The prefs seem to me to get 0.4 cents pa a share equivalent = 10 cents per pref/25 shares equiv.)

[simla]

In Taiwan (pop 23m), this company does not make it's business especially clearly, but appears to sell food ingredients and supplement ingredients. They list Blis K12. As a food ingredient? Or for supplement manufacturers maybe? There is very little about Blis on the site, suggesting it is still a work in progress perhaps? Does this mean K12 has gained some sort of regulatory approval there?

http://www.nutrisense.com.tw/eng/products_1.php?gid=9
http://www.nutrisense.com.tw/eng/service.php

[emearg]

Yes but most of those are still on the 'to do' list. Doing them will cost money (and probably more time than we expect) which will take time to be paid back. Don't get me wrong, I'm not being down on Blis's prospects but I just don't think there is going to be much in the way of profits for the next year or two. Maybe in year three? Anywho, that is the reason I have been buying preference shares rather than ordinaries. At least I WILL get a dividend or even better, payment in shares at excellent terms should the cash not be available for payments.

In five years time I think Blis will be making nice profits, and anybody who bought in at the low prices that have been available for the last few years will be very happy. For those who bought in at the original float price they might still be waiting to get back to break even levels.

Only time will tell...

Have you found any new products lately? It has been a few weeks since the last one so surely there must be another? :-)

[simla]

Does the bit about Taiwan count as progress? By the way, I love your optimism about being paid dividends in massively under-priced Blis shares ...

[emearg]

Does the bit about Taiwan count as progress? By the way, I love your optimism about being paid dividends in massively under-priced Blis shares ...

I posted just after you posted your message, but before I saw it.

Yes I think so. So they are the distributor in Taiwan? Associated with Frutarom? I don't know what form they are selling it in.

The About page ( http://www.nutrisense.com.tw/eng/about.php ) and Services page ( http://www.nutrisense.com.tw/eng/service.php ) gives the best idea but???

It would be nice to receive the preference payment in shares as the terms get better and better the higher the share price goes up. I can't see it happening though...

[lodger]

I really don't have anything to add to this discussion. Just thought I'd make it a threesome, if only briefly.
Cheers...

[simla]

Yes, very witty, Lodger. But Blis will be releasing results in a few weeks that could be a significant turning point in it's history. It has got many outlets now, has opened in it's first truly mass-market environment, and has many other projects that could be reaching action. I am a bit surprised that there is little discussion about where this leaves shareholders - what the current share price should be, if nothing else.

[simla]

The November edition of the Costco Connection magazine is out. It does not seem to mention Bioguard anywhere, even though it also has a small article on the flu (which does not mention anything else either apart from flu shots.) Possible reasons Bioguard is not mentioned: The last ad already produced too much response? The last ad did not produce enough response? It is the Christmas gift edition, with bigger fish to fry, like flat screen TVs - very likely this is the reason, the edition was jam packed with Christmas stuff? Or maybe it signifies nothing much.

http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200911#pg1

[xynz]

The November edition of the Costco Connection magazine is out. It does not seem to mention Bioguard anywhere, even though it also has a small article on the flu (which does not mention anything else either apart from flu shots.) Possible reasons Bioguard is not mentioned: The last ad already produced too much response? The last ad did not produce enough response? It is the Christmas gift edition, with bigger fish to fry, like flat screen TVs - very likely this is the reason, the edition was jam packed with Christmas stuff? Or maybe it signifies nothing much.

http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200911#pg1

Thanks for the update Simla.

If you can go back and review previous issues, then you can see if there were any dietary supplements that had repeat advertisements. Maybe you can contact Costco and ask how they plan the ads in the magazine.

Cheers,
XYNZ

[simla]

Yes, I could Xynz. Let me know what you find out!

Meanwhile, in September we were wondering why LEF were selling Advanced Oral Hygiene for $8 to members and non-members alike. But now it is selling there for $15 and $20 respectively.

[xynz]

Xynz, it's great to have someone with first hand experience of Costco to tell us how it works. Thanks.


And Imagenetix may just be using their cash, rather like Blis, rather than not having enough.




When you don't have any information available, you should always assume the worst. Wishful thinking and share trading is a good recipe for receivership.



The same page that announced Bioguard there, said this: http://www.imagenetix.net/articles/2009/004_09.php

"Going forward, Imagenetix plans to expand its current successful 15 and 30 second television ad spots for InflameAway Celadrin® to national audiences via cable as its primary driver of retail turnover. Starting August 10th, InflameAway Celadrin® can be seen on networks such as FOX News, CNN, USA and Hallmark. The spots will emphasize the theme of InflameAway Celadrin® being "6x Faster and More Effective" than Glucosamine and Chondroitin in promoting joint health. The campaign will also include compelling "actual user" testimonials as further evidence of brand performance and efficacy. This consumer campaign is intended to position InflameAway Celadrin® for rapid acceptance during the balance of this year and into 2010 - with the goal of obtaining loyal advocates of InflameAway Celadrin®. Repeat customers, product compliance and beneficial results are core strengths of the InflameAway Celadrin® brand."

Will they take the same approach to Bioguard? They do seem to know a bit about marketing.

(For those interested in Celadrin - I know nothing of it's effectiveness, just mentioning it, not recommending it - it is for sale in NZ on the web )



In the US, Glucosamine (and Chondroitin?) are the only supplements that actually have clinical trials proving their effectiveness in improving joint cartilage. There are about a gazillion other products on the market that make similar claims, but they don't have any clinical support. The US market is full of crap like that. People buy such products out of sense of desperation and they convince themselves that they work: it's a placebo effect that clinical trials are designed to expose.

Imagenetix's stature in the market doesn't do much for BLS. BLS is a real bio-pharmaceutical and it's probably the best thing that Imagenetix has ever had for sale. If BLS does well in the US, then it will raise Imagenetix's stature (it won't be Imagenetix raising BLS's stature).

[simla]

Time will tell, Xynz. But in the meantime, BLT is looking like it will do all right out of Bioguard anyway, happily.

[Cannibal]

The word is getting around. This from a blog -

I've recently started a new blog. Here's the e-mail I sent out to family and friends (in case somehow I missed you, I'm putting the new blog info here as well!) regarding a new product I'm trying.

"I just want to let my friends and family in on something I recently discovered. Costco is currently carrying a new product called BioGuard by a company called Imagenetix. This is an immune booster and probiotic. Probiotics are good bacteria. BioGuard is a probiotic that is designed to work where germs enter your body--your ears, nose and throat. It's a small white Melt-Tab that immediately begins to work destroying harmful bacteria and replacing them with beneficial bacteria as soon as you put it in your mouth. I think this has the pontential to be a very useful tool this flu season.

For more information please visit the BioGuard website. -or- follow me on a new blog I've started regarding the benefits of BioGuard to my family.

http://batsonbunch.blogspot.com/2009/10/truth-about-bioguard.html

[emearg]

The blogger you linked to has added more information including an embedded copy of the BioGuard TV commercial. It is 31 seconds and well done IMHO. For those of you interested in what they say here is the script. I have typed this out as there has been discussion previously on how easily/well the benefits of K12 products can be conveyed to Joe Average. I think they have done well.

Anywho, here it is:
************
D fence

D fence

Bioguard

Defend yourself this season with new BioGuard, the unique probiotic clinically proven to protect your ear, nose, throat and upper respiratory health

You're familiar with probiotics for digestion, now probiotic BioGuard boosts your immune system by increasing the beneficial good bacteria and crowding out the bad

Women says "BioGuard is my families best defence"

Get new Bioguard melt tabs now, at your local warehouse club store
***********

Interesting last line. Get the product at your local warehouse club store. To me this suggests it will be more widely available than just Costco. We know it is on at least one other website, but this suggests to me that it will be all over the place in no time just like the other products.

The other thing about the add is that the bottom quarter of the screen has a black bar with the following text in white:
"Boost Your Immune System"

Those words should sell the product to a pretty wide audience. How many people have died in the States from Swine Flu so far? People will be keen to boost their immune system...

I think this is pretty smart marketing.

I also note yesterdays email from Costco contains BioGuard. I am surprised how much email real estate this product is getting considering how many products Costco has, and how many new products they launch every week.

Costco are offering a manufactures rebate of $4 on BioGuard. After a bit of digging I note that there are 32 new products in the health category, and 28 of them have a manufacturers rebate so we shouldn't read anything bad into the rebate. If anything it is good as the product just got cheaper for shoppers...

[spike]

Looks like there are quite a few warehouse club stores. found 115 in California. Wonder how many there are in total.

Also thought the TV commercial was quite good




The blogger you linked to has added more information including an embedded copy of the BioGuard TV commercial. It is 31 seconds and well done IMHO. For those of you interested in what they say here is the script. I have typed this out as there has been discussion previously on how easily/well the benefits of K12 products can be conveyed to Joe Average. I think they have done well.

Anywho, here it is:
************
D fence

D fence

Bioguard

Defend yourself this season with new BioGuard, the unique probiotic clinically proven to protect your ear, nose, throat and upper respiratory health

You're familiar with probiotics for digestion, now probiotic BioGuard boosts your immune system by increasing the beneficial good bacteria and crowding out the bad

Women says "BioGuard is my families best defence"

Get new Bioguard melt tabs now, at your local warehouse club store
***********

Interesting last line. Get the product at your local warehouse club store. To me this suggests it will be more widely available than just Costco. We know it is on at least one other website, but this suggests to me that it will be all over the place in no time just like the other products.

The other thing about the add is that the bottom quarter of the screen has a black bar with the following text in white:
"Boost Your Immune System"

Those words should sell the product to a pretty wide audience. How many people have died in the States from Swine Flu so far? People will be keen to boost their immune system...

I think this is pretty smart marketing.

I also note yesterdays email from Costco contains BioGuard. I am surprised how much email real estate this product is getting considering how many products Costco has, and how many new products they launch every week.

Costco are offering a manufactures rebate of $4 on BioGuard. After a bit of digging I note that there are 32 new products in the health category, and 28 of them have a manufacturers rebate so we shouldn't read anything bad into the rebate. If anything it is good as the product just got cheaper for shoppers...

[weasel]

Bioguard has been reduced by 20% at costco. Not sure if this is a sign of poor sales or a standard method for products being trialled.

[emearg]

Bioguard has been reduced by 20% at costco. Not sure if this is a sign of poor sales or a standard method for products being trialled.

If you check out my post above you will note:


Costco are offering a manufactures rebate of $4 on BioGuard. After a bit of digging I note that there are 32 new products in the health category, and 28 of them have a manufacturers rebate so we shouldn't read anything bad into the rebate. If anything it is good as the product just got cheaper for shoppers...

BioGuard is one of the few products in the group of 32 with any feedback so it looks like it may be selling better than some of the other products. I say this assuming the other products have been for sale for a similar period of time. I could be wrong...

With the new TV advertisement it appears that Imagenetix are backing their new product much more than I was expecting. It would be fascinating to know how many times the advertisement has/will be screened in the States. I'm not sure how to find this out though. Any ideas?

[Ponda]

Somebody must have been desperate to get their $94 today.
I know, I know tis a low content post but for someone to drop the share price by 3.8% that's all it deserves.
Well done to the articulate and googlers on this thread who are able to skulk around and find all of the information that you have.
Even after reading it, I try and find it and still can't
Thanks for keeping us appraised.
Just my Ponderings for today

[Cannibal]

This is good - very good - mainstream product at last!

NORTH BERGEN, N.J. and LANGLEY, British Columbia—Frutarom and Tab Labs collaborated to make the prototype of a probiotic gum featuring BLIS K12™, an oral probiotic bacteria known as an immune system booster.

The gum is designed for adults as well as children and is available in mint and fruit flavors. The BLIS K12 dose per serving (one piece) is 20mg—an amount shown to help boost immune system protection. It can promote ear, nose and throat health, supporting protection against coughs and colds, and can help balance the microflora in the mouth to ameliorate bad breath. No heat or moisture is used in the manufacture of BLIS K12 gum.

[Cannibal]

More here - http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=25529&zoneid=9

Frutarom and Tab Labs Launch Probiotic Gum at SSW Show

This functional gum, designed for adults as well as children, is available in Mint and Fruit flavors. The BLIS K12 TM dose per serving (one piece) is 20mg — an amount shown to help boost immune system protection. BLIS K12 TM can promote ear, nose and throat health, supporting protection against coughs and colds, and even helps balance the microflora in the mouth to ameliorate bad breath.

“Because BLIS K12 is an oral-cavity probiotic, it needs to be delivered in a format that has prolonged contact with the mouth, making a chewing gum the perfect delivery system — and more importantly, an immune system booster,”says Laurent Leduc, VP of Frutarom’s Health Division. “Chewing BLIS K12 gum increases the probiotic bacteria activity time in the mouth, as compared to a chewable tablet for example, and provides more opportunity for colonization of the K12 bacteria.”

http://www.tablabs.ca/products_probiogum.html

One line from here that should give some idea of how much profit will be announced -

"is safe - nearly 300 million individual doses sold without a single reported adverse reaction"

300,000,000 is a big number!

[emearg]

http://www.tablabs.ca/products_probiogum.html

One line from here that should give some idea of how much profit will be anounced -

"is safe - nearly 300 million individual doses sold without a single reported adverse reaction"

300,000,000 is a big number!

Sorry to burst the chewing gum bubble but unfortunately that probiotic gum doesn't contain K12. It contains a different gut orientated probiotic.

Bugger...

Full Frutatrom Press Release about the gum can be found here:
http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=25529&zoneid=8

Text attached below FYI:

******************
Frutarom and Tab Labs Launch Probiotic Gum at SSW Show
2009-11-03 - Frutarom USA Inc.

Frutarom, New Jersey, and Tab Labs, British Columbia, Canada, collaborated to make the prototype of a probiotic gum featuring BLIS K12TM, a new oral probiotic bacteria known as an immune system booster. Frutarom and Tab Labs will introduce BLIS K12 TM gum at Supply Side West, Las Vegas, booths # 24060 and #10041.

This functional gum, designed for adults as well as children, is available in Mint and Fruit flavors. The BLIS K12 TM dose per serving (one piece) is 20mg — an amount shown to help boost immune system protection. BLIS K12 TM can promote ear, nose and throat health, supporting protection against coughs and colds, and even helps balance the microflora in the mouth to ameliorate bad breath.

“Because BLIS K12 is an oral-cavity probiotic, it needs to be delivered in a format that has prolonged contact with the mouth, making a chewing gum the perfect delivery system — and more importantly, an immune system booster,”says Laurent Leduc, VP of Frutarom’s Health Division. “Chewing BLIS K12 gum increases the probiotic bacteria activity time in the mouth, as compared to a chewable tablet for example, and provides more opportunity for colonization of the K12 bacteria.”

Previously, manufacturers were unable to develop a stable functional gum application due to probiotic bacteria’s sensitivity to heat. Tab Labs succeeded in developing a proprietary cold-press technology to manufacture functional gums. No heat or moisture is used in the manufacture of BLIS K12 gum. “As a result, you get a very high survival rate of the K12 bacteria and there is no moisture in the finished product, which further helps to ensure longer shelf life” explains Tom Holtgen, Managing Director of Tab Labs. “The cold-press technology also allows for full release of the active, immune system booster compounds, unlike other gums which tend to bind.”

Manufacturers interested in collaborating with Tab Labs to produce a market-ready version of BLIS K12 TM gum are invited to contact Tom Hoeltgen at Tab Labs (604) 513-1391.

Visit us at SupplySide West, Las Vegas, Frutarom Booth no. 24060 and Tab Labs booth no. 10041
******************

Three things strike me about this:
1) This is excellent news. Being able to produce a chewing gum product is excellent progress at a technical level
2) This is only a prototype. They are seeking partners to take it to the next step
3) K12 is a ingredient in the gum. I would think this means the countries a gum product can be sold in is currently restricted to Australia and New Zealand. Hopefully the USA will be the next to receive approval to be included as an ingredient but we don't have a timeframe for this yet. Blis/Frutatrom are actively progressing their self affirmed GRAS application. Does anybody have any idea how long such an application would normally take to make it through the system?

Despite the third point being a bit of a stinker in the short term it is excellent to see that Frutatrom are continuing to be very proactive with K12. It makes me wonder what else they are working on, and how big Blis might become if/when they get GRAS approval. It may well be that we will see a large number of new product types coming to market in the US quite quickly following GRAS approval.

[Cannibal]

From the DA web site -

"14. If I submit a GRAS notice, how long will it take for me to receive a response from FDA?

Our goal is to respond to most GRAS notices within 180 days."

http://www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/GuidanceDocuments/FoodIngredientsandPackaging/ucm061846.htm

[simla]

Good news still coming out. Well done for finding these things, guys.

I note the Blis press release for 31 March, when the rights were voted through, said, "preparing to
complete United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory approval as a food ingredient in
the United States by the end of the fiscal year". That was 31 weeks ago, which is 217 days. On the other hand, the release on July 31 said, "BLIS Technologies is now starting the process of GRAS regulatory approval ". That was 14 weeks ago, or 98 days.

[Cannibal]

This from Barry on October 7th -

We are in the process of preparing financial report for the six months to Sept 09 that will be released to NZX within the next few weeks.

Can't be long now - surely?

[simla]

Blis has always come out in the last few days of the month. As we want to hear how Costco is going anyway, and Costco was talking opening in all 400 stores only about now, news at the end of the month is probably a good idea anyway.

[emearg]

Thanks for the GRAS info.

The last release from Blis about Costco also mentioned the half year results would be released in late November.

The new chewing gum isn't a very well kept secret:

http://www.foodproductdesign.com/news/2009/11/oral-probiotic-boosts-immunity.aspx

http://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/news/2009/11/frutarom-tab-labs-probiotic-gum.aspx

http://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/Frutarom-and-Tab-Labs-Featuring-BLIS-K12TM-Prototype-of-a-Probiotic-Gum.html

http://www.nutritionhorizon.com/headlines/First-Probiotic-Gum-as-Immune-System-Booster.html

http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Industry/New-probiotic-gum-prototype-claims-to-boost-immune-system

http://www.badbreathhope.com/

[simla]

You know, I wonder if this new chewing gum isn't pretty big news. It just seemed curious when I first read it, because personally I don't like gum. But looking around the net, the stories all seem to say the same thing - chewing gum is a big market, and a rapidly growing market too, AND that breath and tooth health is a dominant reason for using gum. Well, K12 would be right there. Also, if they can do it with K12, it seems pretty likely it would work with M18 too. If, if the stuff tastes and feels normal when you chew it, I wonder if this perhaps has the potential to be a big hit? Further, it is at SupplySide West next week, where K12 did pretty well last year.

[Nevl]

You know, I wonder if this new chewing gum isn't pretty big news. It just seemed curious when I first read it, because personally I don't like gum. But looking around the net, the stories all seem to say the same thing - chewing gum is a big market, and a rapidly growing market too, AND that breath and tooth health is a dominant reason for using gum. Well, K12 would be right there. Also, if they can do it with K12, it seems pretty likely it would work with M18 too. If, if the stuff tastes and feels normal when you chew it, I wonder if this perhaps has the potential to be a big hit? Further, it is at SupplySide West next week, where K12 did pretty well last year.

Check out the Xylitol. Its huge in Finland and gum is branded on the fact that it contains it. Would be great to see a NZ product having the same success as Xylitol did for Finland.

[simla]

The new chewing gum is, of course, a result of R & D. So is K12, and recently M18 rolled out - also a result of R & D. We know Blis are big on R & D, but we know little of what they do. There are two projects we do know of, though, and I wonder what we might hear this time around?

Firstly, we recently got told of http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Press%20Releasel%20AGM%202009%20.pdf "specific work over coming months with a view to eventually bringing further BLIS probiotic products to the retail market in specific applications." Will we hear any more of this soon?

And we know of the Nestle relationship. On 28 March 2007, nearly 3 years ago now, we were told http://www.nzbio.org.nz/default.aspx?page=20&news=1390 that "Nestlé Nutrition and BLIS Technologies will work exclusively together to incorporate these probiotics into infant nutrition products", and that " the company will commit significant resources to the development over the next three years."

But note the words probiotics (plural) and products (plural).

Then, two years ago, on 21 September 2007, http://www.infonews.co.nz/news.cfm?l=81&t=107&id=6535 we were told, "New Zealand biotechnology company BLIS Technologies and Nestlé Nutrition, a unit of Nestlé SA, have agreed to broaden their research and development collaboration announced on 28 March 2007. The focus of the research and development continues to be upper respiratory tract infections in infants. " ... "Nestlé Nutrition and BLIS Technologies will therefore broaden their research to include probiotics other than BLIS K12 which formed the basis of the initial agreement. " ... "BLIS Technologies will be responsible for screening for suitable probiotics in its collection."

Since when we have heard little of the Nestle arrangement, except that it is regularly mentioned, suggesting we should not be ignoring it. The shareholder presentation 2009 http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20AGM%202009%20Presentationl%2031%20July%2009 .pdf said, "anticipated product launch 2011, subject to successful outcome". The initial 3 year research would theoretically complete by March, four months from now.

Will we hear any more of this or any other research results this time around?

[simla]

A web page which keeps appearing further and further up the Google list of 'recent results' for one of my Blis K12 searches is on the web site of one of our posters (not my job to say who.) It made it to the first page of results today - people spend fortunes trying to do that. Anyway, good on you.

[emearg]

A web page which keeps appearing further and further up the Google list of 'recent results' for one of my Blis K12 searches is on the web site of one of our posters (not my job to say who.) It made it to the first page of results today - people spend fortunes trying to do that. Anyway, good on you.

Sheessh, that is just teasing us Simla! At least provide a link as I have run a couple of searches and can't find anything that fits your description!

Is http://www.k12.co.nz new?

[simla]

Sorry, Emearg! It's not a major page, but he's put up a small promo on his otherwise-unrelated web site. Not trying to tease, just congratulating him on gumption, but it isn't for me to say. Sorry if I seem to tease.

That web site you found has been there a while I think. It links to the healthstore.co.nz, which seems to be part of a number of websites written in other languages, such as http://www.healthstore.jp/ja/cp/%E3%83%88%E3%83%AD%E3%83%BC%E3%83%81_%E5%8F%A3%E8% 87%AD which already seem to sell Blis into other countries. I've often wondered how much trade they do for Blis.

By the way, with that stuff on Nestle - that would count as a food product, wouldn't it? I wonder if that was originally part of the incentive for the high speed with which Blis have been looking for regulatory permission around the world?

[emearg]

Frutatrom have a Canadian distributor ready to go...

http://www.ckfoods.com/nutrition.html

[Cannibal]

Imagenetix have released their 2nd quarter results and Blis is front and centre in the report.

This is interesting -

We were pleased to introduce BioGuard, an immune boosting probiotic for the ear, nose and throat, into the largest club store warehouse during the quarter and the recent issuance of a patent for our early stage drug candidate, 1-TDC, to address periodontal diseases. We will continue to expand TV advertising to increase awareness of both InflameAway Celadrin and BioGuard. We anticipate this marketing program for the mass market segment to continue to result in improved sales.

"Continue to expand TV advertising", is such a lucrative phrase...

http://www.sys-con.com/node/1180193

[simla]

Cannibal, good to see the ongoing research, thanks. Imagenetix look like they are going to put the effort in to Bioguard, since it should be a big cash source for them, so that's good. And yes, TV advertising would seem excellent news.

The financial results reported on that page did not show any surge in sales to Sept 30 compared to last year. But they also said in the text, "The second quarter revenue is a 12% increase over the $1,702,000 reported for the first quarter of fiscal year 2010." 12% is about $200,000. So maybe that was good news for Bioguard, as Costco must have bought some in advance of the October 1 launch? But they said a while ago that they were expanding Celadrin advertising too.

Would I be right that accrual accounting would mean purchases of 'raw materials' from Blis for sales into October would NOT be recorded in Imagenetix's September quarter, but held over to the next quarter's report? In which case, this does not tell us anything either way? They did record prepaid current expenses in the balance sheet of US$225,000, but that could be anything. (It's great how expenses you've already shelled out cash for, never to be seen again, is an asset!) Hard to read any of that either way, particularly as we do not know how much of those figures relate to their other product, Celadrin.

But great to see evidence of actual advertising of a Blis product.

[simla]

Emearg, I think we've seen the Canadian firm before. Their K12 pamphlet does not seem to have changed recently. There is a curious lack of "new news" on the internet. I wonder if that is a sign of a change of tack which we will find out about in a bit, the quiet before the storm maybe?

But yes, they are certainly ready to roll once they get regulatory approval. When Blis would announce an approval last year, it seemed bureaucratic, but we've been taught how vital it is since. Blis generally seem ready in advance to roll on any market they get approval for.

We are waiting on near term approvals for the US (GRAS), Canada, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, aren't we? Maybe they already have what they need in Japan, though, as Epoca is on sale now. Did that include food approval though? (What do you make of this, http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.him-news.com/news/backnumber-1-1-1/ It came out in August, and does not look like the Epoca deal to me, but I have waited in vain for further reports of this. Tradepia is a company I believe, but the name is used a lot in Japan.)

The market seems to have gone in to an uncertain state on Blis shares, presumably while everyone waits to see if the news shows Blis to be already undersold or oversold. Will we get clear news, though, or will we have to wait for next March?

Personally, I would quite like to hear how things like Nature's Plus sell (via numerous distributors) compared to Bioguard (via concentrated outlets), but I suspect that will not be clear. It would also be interesting to hear about food. (Is chewing gum a food, requiring GRAS?) NZ and Australia have food approval now, and marketers often like to test in smaller markets - against which, is Blis a winter product here? Throat Guard yoghurt might sell at airports though, or chewing gum.

And, of course, it would be great to hear of advances in Europe or Asia.

Meanwhile, preference dividends this Friday, I think.

[emearg]

Cannibal, good to see the ongoing research, thanks. Imagenetix look like they are going to put the effort in to Bioguard, since it should be a big cash source for them, so that's good. And yes, TV advertising would seem excellent news.

The financial results reported on that page did not show any surge in sales to Sept 30 compared to last year. But they also said in the text, "The second quarter revenue is a 12% increase over the $1,702,000 reported for the first quarter of fiscal year 2010." 12% is about $200,000. So maybe that was good news for Bioguard, as Costco must have bought some in advance of the October 1 launch? But they said a while ago that they were expanding Celadrin advertising too.

Would I be right that accrual accounting would mean purchases of 'raw materials' from Blis for sales into October would NOT be recorded in Imagenetix's September quarter, but held over to the next quarter's report? In which case, this does not tell us anything either way? They did record prepaid current expenses in the balance sheet of US$225,000, but that could be anything. (It's great how expenses you've already shelled out cash for, never to be seen again, is an asset!) Hard to read any of that either way, particularly as we do not know how much of those figures relate to their other product, Celadrin.

I would think Costco would have bought some in September but won't pay for it until late October if things in the US are anything like NZ.

When did Imagenetix pay for the raw ingredient?

More importantly, when did Frutatrom pay Blis for it?

The next big question is how much raw ingredient does Frutatrom have in stock, and has therefore already paid Blis for?

We know Frutatrom sell it in two kilogram quantities to their customers. We have no idea how much a bag that size is worth.

It will be fascinating to see what the US sales in the first half were. Simla, as I recall you estimated the US sales at 500k for the half. I think I estimated 250k. I thought I was probably low at the time but wanted to be on the conservative side. I now think I will be shown to be ultra conservative...


But great to see evidence of actual advertising of a Blis product.

It was quickly obvious how proactive Frutatrom is when Blis appointed them last year. What now pleases me is how proactive all Frutatrom customers have proven to be.

If you had told me 18 months ago so much progress would be made in 1 year I would have laughed and laughed and then probably cried a little ;-)

[emearg]

Emearg, I think we've seen the Canadian firm before. Their K12 pamphlet does not seem to have changed recently.

I don't think so but am happy to be proven wrong! The pamphlet is the work of Frutatrom, and was created in September last year. The Canadian outfit are simply re-using it so their customers know what Blis K12 is all about.


But yes, they are certainly ready to roll once they get regulatory approval. When Blis would announce an approval last year, it seemed bureaucratic, but we've been taught how vital it is since. Blis generally seem ready in advance to roll on any market they get approval for.

It is a pity they don't have an army of people capable of doing the regulatory application work. But it is obvious it requires siginificant technical knowledge so they have to set priorities.


We are waiting on near term approvals for the US (GRAS), Canada, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, aren't we? Maybe they already have what they need in Japan, though, as Epoca is on sale now. Did that include food approval though? (What do you make of this, http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.him-news.com/news/backnumber-1-1-1/ It came out in August, and does not look like the Epoca deal to me, but I have waited in vain for further reports of this. Tradepia is a company I believe, but the name is used a lot in Japan.)

The market seems to have gone in to an uncertain state on Blis shares, presumably while everyone waits to see if the news shows Blis to be already undersold or oversold. Will we get clear news, though, or will we have to wait for next March?

Personally, I would quite like to hear how things like Nature's Plus sell (via numerous distributors) compared to Bioguard (via concentrated outlets), but I suspect that will not be clear. It would also be interesting to hear about food. (Is chewing gum a food, requiring GRAS?) NZ and Australia have food approval now, and marketers often like to test in smaller markets - against which, is Blis a winter product here? Throat Guard yoghurt might sell at airports though, or chewing gum.

And, of course, it would be great to hear of advances in Europe or Asia.

Meanwhile, preference dividends this Friday, I think.

I will have a nosey over lunch...and yes the payment date for the preference shares is this Friday.

[simla]

I don't think so but am happy to be proven wrong!

I think it was reported by someone called Emearg, on the 24th of August, page 39...!

Delighted to hear you think our sales estimates have been ultra conservative. I really come and go on this one. Yes, that is very possible. But we do not know how much is actually selling, nor do we know what Blis's cut is on the retail prices. This cuts to the very heart of what the news will be.

[emearg]

I think it was reported by someone called Emearg, on the 24th of August, page 39...!

Delighted to hear you think our sales estimates have been ultra conservative. I really come and go on this one. Yes, that is very possible. But we do not know how much is actually selling, nor do we know what Blis's cut is on the retail prices. This cuts to the very heart of what the news will be.

Ahhh, I had forgotten all about that!

Actually I just think MY estimate probably was. I suspect yours will be much closer.

[emearg]

Maybe they already have what they need in Japan, though, as Epoca is on sale now. Did that include food approval though? (What do you make of this, http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.him-news.com/news/backnumber-1-1-1/ It came out in August, and does not look like the Epoca deal to me, but I have waited in vain for further reports of this. Tradepia is a company I believe, but the name is used a lot in Japan.)

The translation is so bad I can't make anything of it.


The market seems to have gone in to an uncertain state on Blis shares, presumably while everyone waits to see if the news shows Blis to be already undersold or oversold. Will we get clear news, though, or will we have to wait for next March?

Personally, I would quite like to hear how things like Nature's Plus sell (via numerous distributors) compared to Bioguard (via concentrated outlets), but I suspect that will not be clear. It would also be interesting to hear about food. (Is chewing gum a food, requiring GRAS?) NZ and Australia have food approval now, and marketers often like to test in smaller markets - against which, is Blis a winter product here? Throat Guard yoghurt might sell at airports though, or chewing gum.

And, of course, it would be great to hear of advances in Europe or Asia.

I still think the share price is holding up pretty well considering there has been nothing significant to come out of Blis since the AGM. There have been little bits of news, but nothing as big as what was shared late July.

I think the results will tell us if we have been foolishly optimistic. I don't think we need to wait until March to figure out if Blis is making the progress some of us think they are.

[simla]

I hope you're right about not needing to wait until March.

Not sure about not having had big news since July, though. Blis just don't do press releases except for big things (Nestle, Frutarom, Rights Issue), it's just never clear at the time exactly why it's big. For example, we now know the rights issue was mostly about huge market opportunity. And, likewise, the Frutarom arrangement has had a big impact on Blis.

I suspect the Oct 16 press release was important if we knew the right context to read it in. For example, is this significant, "BLIS Technologies Ltd has become the recognized expert in the oral healthcare segment of the dietary supplements market." That is a mild statement that is nevertheless pretty extraordinary. Or, "continue to progress business development activities in Asia." And the mention of M18 probably indicated something. And then there is the obvious Costco bit. The press release only said it was Costco, but the ODT article (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/78401/blis-breaks-us-market) said the trial would be reviewed in early November and taken nationwide if so: "This is exciting news... It is a good position for Blis to be in."

[fungus pudding]

The translation is so bad I can't make anything of it.



I still think the share price is holding up pretty well considering there has been nothing significant to come out of Blis since the AGM. There have been little bits of news, but nothing as big as what was shared late July.



Whih was that some months they break even,but not in other months. Just another way of saying our annual result will be a loss.

[simla]

The CEO presentation in July http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20AGM%202009%20Presentationl%2031%20July%2009 .pdf said, "Have periods of positive cash flow - yet to break-even each month."

Many observations might be added to that. Firstly, Blis capitalises some development expenses (reasonably in my opinion, M18 for example is quite an asset), and positive cash flow suggests to me enough cash to pay for those capitalised expenses too - which would be a firm, declared profit, if so. Secondly, we do not know how positive or negative each period was, so the total effect could have been either positive or negative. Thirdly, we must assume Blis sales have still been growing since then as the manufacturers keep bringing out fresh product. Fourthly, Japan has come on line since then. Fifthly, Costco must be expected to generate reasonable cash. Sixthly, it would be pretty dispiriting to add up to an annual loss with all this on the boil. Seventhly, there's never been positive cash flow before, so let's be glad. And, eighthly, the July 31 press release said the company had received a "substantial sum" for research work.

But, yeah, it is the big question on the table - has all this activity added up to profit yet? Following very closely behind that question, though, would be wanting a market update.

[scamper]

half year results out.
Revenue up 228%
Deficit down 97%
Net deficit down 56%

[simla]

Overall, I thought that was excellent. As results go, that was definitely "good honest chocolate." There was almost no bad news whatsoever, whereas there was plenty of foundation work starting to bear reliable fruit, and plenty more foundation work coming into play soon. And some pretty good news tucked in there, too.

However, that was a complex announcement - full of detail, happily - and it will take time to chew over.

[fungus pudding]

Overall, I thought that was excellent. As results go, that was definitely "good honest chocolate." There was almost no bad news whatsoever, whereas there was plenty of foundation work starting to bear reliable fruit, and plenty more foundation work coming into play soon. And some pretty good news tucked in there, too.

However, that was a complex announcement - full of detail, happily - and it will take time to chew over.


Those figures would not be too bad - if it was a 7 day corner dairy. I think we'll be waiting a while yet to see any dividend. But given the low price it won't be too painful to wait. But I do admire your unshakeable optimism.

[winner69]

Those figures would not be too bad - if it was a 7 day corner dairy. I think we'll be waiting a while yet to see any dividend. But given the low price it won't be too painful to wait. But I do admire your unshakeable optimism.

Prob the cirner dairy's turnover is higher ... but we will never know as most of the corner dairy takings end up in the back pocket instaed of the till

[simla]

Thanks, Funguspudding. But, honestly, my optimism is based only on the facts. Blis remains an arrow that is shooting true from where I'm sitting.

About the only thing I can think we might have hoped for in addition to all that would have been for US sales to have been perhaps one or two hundred thousand more. But consider:

For a starter, maybe they were more. "The Company estimates the impact of adverse movements in the US exchange rate in the last few months decreased revenue by $100K against the original budget expectations." That's not crying wolf, as other manufacturers have been going out of business because of the currency. (And without the currency problem, that would have been a trading profit.)

I think we might also reflect on the changing nature of Blis's income. A year ago, Blis's biggest market, Australia, suddenly went off line. But simultaneously, thankfully, Blis started placing product in the US. For the period to March 09, US sales must have mainly comprised sales for initial manufacturing runs. There have not been nearly so many new products this time, so a lot or most of the US sales must now represent retail orders. So, it is likely we have just seen the first period of ongoing sales out of the US, and therefore the sales figure this half possibly does not compare very meaningfully with the prior period.

Also, it was summer in the US. We will find out whether winter is a boost for sales there. And let's not forget that consumer confidence in the US has been pretty dreadful, and deteriorating - way worse than here in NZ.

And most obviously of all, sales start small and grow. The reasonable assumption is that this revenue stream is reasonably broadly based and does not risk drying up suddenly. Don't forget that Blis had not even opened in the US in its new guise a year ago. And interesting to reflect on how much retail sales must have been for Blis to receive $368k, with most Blis units in the US appearing to sell for around US$15.

But, indeed, the one thing this report did not make clear is what the growth pattern in the US is likely to be. For that, it seems we must wait until March. But, either way, there was lots of other good news there too, which I want to chew over.

[simla]

Actually, here's a bit of maths. US sales were $368k for this 6 months. Last year, they were $325k for the whole year. Let's assume an entire $300k was the second half of last year (probably less), and that most of the $100k currency movement would attribute to the US sales this half. Would that would mean US sales the prior half were $300k or less compared to $468k this time, or a more than 50% increase measured in US dollars? Just a guess, of course.

[spike]

What is the story behind sales to the Australia market.


I think we might also reflect on the changing nature of Blis's income. A year ago, Blis's biggest market, Australia, suddenly went off line. But simultaneously, thankfully, Blis started placing product in the US. For the period to March 09, US sales must have mainly comprised sales for initial manufacturing runs. There have not been nearly so many new products this time, so a lot or most of the US sales must now represent retail orders. So, it is likely we have just seen the first period of ongoing sales out of the US, and therefore the sales figure this half possibly does not compare very meaningfully with the prior period.

[simla]

Aren't you meant to quote when you do that... Until we hear otherwise, I'm just assuming they have other priorities over in Australia.

I still feel really good about these results. They were robust. There was the right progress on pretty well all fronts. They've worked pretty hard in Dunedin to bring about this state of affairs. I am very content with that outcome, and I think it is going to the right places at a pretty good speed. That's my opinion, anyway.

[Chippie]

Okay Simla, I will have a crack at the half year figures

2008 figures
Total Revenue $1.1M
Sales 6 months = $158K
Sales 2nd 6 months = $450K
"other" Revenue = $539K
Deficit = $487K

2009 half year (my guess)
Sales = $600K
Other Revenue = $250K
Profit = $50K

On the news release of BLT half year result the share price will go to 18 cents.

The full year profit in 2010 will explode to $500K and the share price goes to 40 cents on a P/E ratio of 12 (or is that just wishful thinking?). At this point we all pat ourselves on the back for buying lots of shares at 4 cents and we have a share holder meeting in Rarotonga 

I am pretty happy with the news today (just had to compare to my guess a month or so ago).
Actual Sales $663K
Other Rev $415
loss = ($180k)

It is looking very good for the 2nd half year. I will stick with my full year guess of $500K profit :)

[simla]

I'm still not sure about that PE calculation, Chippie. But not a bad guess on the figures. The profit guess would have been about right too if the "Other Expenses" hadn't gone up, which seem likely to be costs of constantly expanding, since they talked of "careful management of costs."

[emearg]

Well there was a lot of information in yesterdays report, and a few things that were missing as well.

It certainty met my revenue expectations as you will see below:


I have revised my half year revenue estimate after re-reading the notes from the AGM presentation.

Sales revenue:
NZ 150k
Aussi 100k
Ireland 50k
US 250k
Japan, Taiwan etc 100k

Total sales = 650k

Other revenue:
Licensing (Nestle) 100k
Contract Development 100k
New Consumer Group 130k (updated)
Grants 50k (added)
Other 50k

Total Other Revenue = 430k

Total Revenues = 1.080 million

It gets even more interesting if you look at the accounts payable and receivables. Receivables - At 31st March 2009 they had 254k. At 30th September 2009 they had 455k. This is an extra 200k. This shows the sales have increased even more than the revenue figures tell. March 2008 only had 83k so the sales increase for the two comparable periods is far bigger than it looks at first glance. The accounts payable increase is much smaller.

Interesting that Natures Plus had/has a period of exclusivity with M18. I'm not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for Blis, but it suggests Natures Plus is keen on the potential of the product.

Nestle revenues have decreased but we have seen that before so I won't get too concerned unless it doesn't reverse at full year. Interesting that they expect this to change due to commencement of additional projects. I wonder what the projects are? Nestle must be happy with the results achieved so far if they are looking at additional projects.

More products are to be launched in Japan. Excellent! Japan is finally moving and with their large population it isn't a market to be under estimated.

They have looked at the top 50 companies and have five producing products with three more to come by financial year end. That is 16% with products in only 18 months since Frutatrom came on board. That is pretty good progress and shows good acceptance out there in the real world.

It is interesting that initial sales are expected before financial year end from Europe, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, SEA & Aussi through Frutatrom. Some of these countries have never been tapped before so if they can get them going in the next six months that will be excellent progress.

GRAS is to be filed? It sounds like this will take longer than we had hoped. That is not good :-(

No real details about getting K12 into toothpaste, functional beverages etc. That is disappointing :-(

No reports on how the BioGuard is selling. A pity but not really a surprise this early on.

There was no mention of Aussi revenues so I will assume that market is still terrible and they haven't recovered it despite that being one of their priorities. That is disappointing as Aussi has coped pretty well with the global problems whereas Ireland has been one of the hardest hit and I didn't expect much from it, and still don't.

Overall, reported revenues met my expectations, and those expectations were aggressive when compared with previous periods. Taking the monies owned into consideration they have completely exceeded my expectations. And if the NZ$ hadn't been so high against the US things would have been even better but such is life. If this level of growth continues, Blis will meet my full year target of two million in revenue. I think we can expect the growth to accelerate as customers build their sales, and new customers/products come on line.

Actually, this is the first time EVER that Blis has met my financial expectations.

[simla]

"Actually, this is the first time EVER that Blis has met my financial expectations." Ah, you finally got it right, Emearg ...

Seriously, though, very good estimates. And excellent point about the accounts receivable.

[simla]

Okay, so let's look at some of the details. Check details for yourself, of course. I've tried to be accurate.

Well, firstly, what a massive turnaround on the results of one year ago. These are the result of a company that is here to stay, no?

And, secondly, it was broadly good news all around, in line with expectations - not leaping ahead of expectations, but certainly not falling behind. And with the financials that appeared on face value to be "solid but steady progress", there was some truly good news on progress. The only ones who could have been disappointed with these results would be ones who are looking to sell out with a huge profit in a spectacularly short time frame. Anyone looking to the longer term, as I always do, can only see a solid future written therein.

Financial news:

Revenue of over $1m for the six months. That's good.

US sales which I've already discussed in another post.

NZ sales were up 94% from last year. Does that mean the market can continue to grow strongly? After all, it was hardly market saturation.

International revenue is now 80% of sales.

Financially, it got very close to turning a small profit, but instead turned a small loss ($11k). They were obliged to report a total deficit of $180k, because the preference shares are booked as debt due to the uncertain conversion rate. But we wouldn't look to dividends being an expense, so this is arguable. Also, we have thought of their research income as short term pluses, but the company generates it so consistently that this is perhaps something that will be there for a while to come yet?

There was a cash outflow for the period of: $210k for operations, capitalised costs of $339k, plant etc of $25k, and issue costs of $201k. So positive cash flow didn't happen this time, unless you include the $3m preference shares. But still possible next period I would have thought.

Yet overall, the company has an excellent cash position. They talked of careful management of costs, and still have working capital of $2.7m.

Not mentioned:

We did not hear how Costco is going. This is not surprising considering it is still early November, but it would have been nice to hear. The 3 months trial has not been accelerated as the ODT report suggested might be possible, but there was no suggestion it was anything but on track.

Likewise, progress in Japan was not discussed in detail. But international sales were $529k, less US sales of $368k, leaves $161k from somewhere else offshore.

No mention on toothpaste, beverages or yoghurt. I'm not sure that's a problem, Emearg, as Blis have a way of not mentioning things that are in fact going places.

I think it would be fair to describe this report as exactly what it was meant to be: a description of LAST period's results, and not a projection of the coming period. They told us of the financials of that period - which were largely in line with a period of trying to establish in the market - and their marketing activities, which were very active.

Not quite so good stuff:

Not too much of that: "The Company is evaluating its options with respect to regulatory approval in Europe but it is clear from recent market developments associated with rulings from the European Food Safety Authority that the regulatory requirements in this market have tightened and will likely be more demanding than earlier believed." So we still do not know how long before they can enter this useful market, but they still discussed initial sales into Europe this financial year of some sort.

Good market news:

I thought there was some pretty good stuff here.


Still plenty of prospects in the US in negotiation. Still plenty of room to go with dietary supplements, but now moving on the OTCs, plus of course waiting to roll over foods.

"It is anticipated that further products will soon be released in Japan and in other North Asian markets." Soon. That's a big market. And "other North Asian markets" means they are opening into other countries (plural), doesn't it? As with the US, how will the support promotion go, and how long will that take.

"many of the "first to market” retail manufacturers who have made significant investments in consumer education and promotion which in turn builds brand awareness and loyalty." This seems to be suggesting the existing manufacturers are building their markets, and furthermore they are willing to put money into doing so.

"BLIS Technologies can report that there are 5 North American companies (with revenues above US$ 40 million per year) that that have launched one or more products containing a BLIS probiotic ingredient with an additional 3 companies expected to do the same before the end of the financial year (31 March 2010)." Okay, let's take Nature's Plus, Solaray, Imagenetix, Bio-genesis and VegLife (but I think they are part of Solaray). So have we missed someone? Anyway, 3 more to come this year is great.

They mention Costco, and then say "similar developments with other companies through Frutarom USA are very encouraging to BLIS and are an important factor in the company soon achieving profitable operations." Similar to the Costco deal? That would appear to be profitable. And actually talking of soon achieving profitability is a rare departure for Blis.

"In conjunction with Frutarom, the Company is also developing other business opportunities identified in Europe, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, South East Asia and Australia, which it anticipates will generate initial sales in the current financial year." As you say, Emearg, that would be excellent. Multiple countries this year, it would seem, which is good.

"BLIS Technologies remains in close contact with its European research partner Nestle Nutritional and is focused on future commercial opportunities that may evolve from this relationship." Yes, again, Emearg. I thought this sounded promising too. But interesting perhaps that the tone suggests the existing arrangement is taken as read. So is that one turning into something of a done deal then? And is it only one deal now anyway, or is more than K12 already being looked at?

"BLIS Technologies is well advanced with its most significant regulatory approval process undertaken to date. The process, which is called self-affirmed Generally Recognised as Safe (GRAS) application, is to be filed with the United States Food and Drug Administration and subject to approvals from the technical committee, the company anticipates the completion of this process during 2010." Is that delayed? Hard to say. But "is to be filed" may suggest the 6 month average turn around for the FDA is only starting, and I wonder what effect government funding cuts might have on that too. Either way, it is progressing well apparently.

"We are extremely encouraged by the significant investments that third parties are making in development and marketing of products based on our proprietary ingredients." I thought this was good news. We cannot tell from a distance what the other companies are doing, so this is our first news that they are doing a lot, and with their wallets too by the sound of it. We've seen the Bioguard TV ad, but do not ourselves know what the others are doing, so that's welcome news.

"The Company expects to formally launch the BLIS M18 to the broader dietary supplements market early in 2010." "During the period the Company launched BLIS M18, with immediate sales to two customers in the US market with one of these having a period of exclusivity." Now, they did not say Nature's Plus had the period of exclusivity, and who is this second company? Bioguard seems to have Costco to itself, so maybe they have M18 on that basis too? Or maybe Blis have picked a second such candidate for the M18 to give themselves yet more breadth of market?


That's a pretty heartening list.

Other impressions:

On the whole, the company seemed to be doing well, with maybe three headwinds evident. Firstly, they appear to be challenged by paperwork requirements for regulatory approval, even saying "regulatory requirements often become a barrier to market entry and then drain significant resources from the company, as the appropriate regulatory approvals are sought." Secondly, you got the impression that the company is keeping a tight grip on its cash until positive cash flow is achieved, which is reassuring ("careful management of costs"). For example, presumably they could probably throw endless cash at advancing the regulatory work, yet they still have over $2.5m cash in the bank. I think that is wise. Which leaves them with, thirdly, waiting to see just how fast market sales can grow. I think we will know more of that next March, but there are hints they expect good things soon. ("generate initial sales in the current financial year","an important factor in the company soon achieving profitable operations",""similar developments [to Costco] with other companies")

Overall

I am very content with this outcome. A declared profit would have been the icing on the cake, but it's a pretty good cake anyway. As the Blis report concludes:

"The priority for the Company remains the attainment of profitability through a focus on the leverage of its intellectual property through the development of key international partnerships and the careful management of costs. We are extremely encouraged by the significant investments that third parties are making in development and marketing of products based on our proprietary ingredients."

I think the main question left on the table is: how fast can sales grow? That's a heaps better question than this time last year.

[simla]

Actually, I'm glad this news is good and things are looking promising. When you look elsewhere, it is pretty hard to ignore that the rest of the world is still in a parlous state, and things could still go pear shaped. With so many storm clouds still on the horizon, it's a good thing Blis has had a chance to get some of its washing in off the line. And if things do in fact pick up instead, then all the better.

[emearg]

Nature's Plus have launched two new products. One is more significant than the other.

Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
This contains M18. Nature's Plus already had the Tooth Fairy product that was aimed at kids. No points for guessing the age group this product is aimed at...

It can be found here:
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=4383&productnumber=4383&category=22


Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tabs
This is the same as their Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Tablets product, except this one comes in Mini-Tabs instead of a tablet. So the pills are smaller, and you take two. I'm not to sure what conclusions to draw from this.

It can be found here:
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/transport.asp?productNumber=5224&criteria=keywordSearchResults&category=29

[simla]

Well spotted. The Adult's Dental Care looks a pretty marketable product.

It's been an unexpectedly big week of news for Blis. The announcement suggests we should be finding a fair trickle of developments on the net for a while to come.

[simla]

The results only compared this 6 months with the same time last year, not the prior half year. I just did the maths, and the sales revenue for the last three 6 month periods have been 158k, 450k, and 663k. So sales revenue rose by 50% over the last half, if my maths is right. The trading losses seemed to be 405k, 71k, 11k. The reason it did not go into profit was because the "other expenses" went up by nearly as much as the sales revenue this half - presumably the cost of all these marketing ventures and regulatory consents which we're so happy with.

You'll gather from my several posts since the results that I'm pretty happy with this. I know some people want the share price to rocket in the shorter term, but I'm happy for it to have been noticed by the market and steadily making progress now. With these results, Blis crossed the Rubicon as I see it. We still do not know the speed of growth, but it seems to me that continuous growth is now the only likely outcome from here on in. That's a great place for the company to be, especially with excellent projects on the boil as well.

[pietrade]

As a holder since slighty before the beginning of time - or so it seems - I'm really pleased that BLT has at last got legs and appears to be well on it's way to success.. So pleased I topped up at 4c.

I'm also very appreciative of Emearg and Simla's regular in-depth analysis and the effort you've both put into making the picture so clear.. Many thanks to you both. 'Rock on' Bliss!!!!

[simla]

Thanks very much Pietrade. Nice to see the steady trickle of people who were buying at 4 cents.

You remind me to post my periodic explanation of why I post. Mainly I post for the discussion - one person's views can make sense until someone else puts a counter view. I've learned a lot here and very much gained clarity in my own thinking on the subject. Emearg and I are putting in a fair effort at present, but a lot of other posters have contributed very many valuable posts over time, as I'm sure others will in future. I very much appreciate your efforts, Emearg, and I also very much appreciate everyone else's contributions.

I also post because I believe there is plenty to go round in the world, and also I hope this company won't end up owned offshore like so many other NZ companies have, as I'd like the profits to help grow NZ - I assume it is mostly NZers reading this group.

But, as always: I am never advising anyone to buy, sell or trade in BLT. That is for each person to decide based on their own thoughts and research.

[spike]

I also appreciative of Emearg and Simla's in-depth analysis and the effort. There regular information has brought this company to my attention and I have enjoy cross referencing information where possible and also have been topping up my holding. It's great to support a small NZ company with potential and will be in for the long haul.



As a holder since slighty before the beginning of time - or so it seems - I'm really pleased that BLT has at last got legs and appears to be well on it's way to success.. So pleased I topped up at 4c.

I'm also very appreciative of Emearg and Simla's regular in-depth analysis and the effort you've both put into making the picture so clear.. Many thanks to you both. 'Rock on' Bliss!!!!

[spike]

This trend is worth more than small profit and was just what I was hopping for. If they stay on this track I will have to make my way down the Dunedin for the next AGM to congratulate the BLIS team in person


The results only compared this 6 months with the same time last year, not the prior half year. I just did the maths, and the sales revenue for the last three 6 month periods have been 158k, 450k, and 663k. So sales revenue rose by 50% over the last half, if my maths is right. The trading losses seemed to be 405k, 71k, 11k. The reason it did not go into profit was because the "other expenses" went up by nearly as much as the sales revenue this half - presumably the cost of all these marketing ventures and regulatory consents which we're so happy with.

You'll gather from my several posts since the results that I'm pretty happy with this. I know some people want the share price to rocket in the shorter term, but I'm happy for it to have been noticed by the market and steadily making progress now. With these results, Blis crossed the Rubicon as I see it. We still do not know the speed of growth, but it seems to me that continuous growth is now the only likely outcome from here on in. That's a great place for the company to be, especially with excellent projects on the boil as well.

[emearg]

Kind words peeps. Cheers

ODT has covered the result. Nothing new but here is the link:
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/82006/improved-6-month-result-blis

[Oman]

Hi emearg. I also spotted that and it's on my page where I'm promoting BLIS on yanimon.com ...to boost the SP hopefully. I've got an interest in helping sales !!

The HY report was better than I expected.

There are the really big players such as iherb selling Nature's Plus products now so the BLT sp trend must be upwards ...maybe above 20cps soon after the New year lull?

Disclosure: I hold rather a lot of BLT shares and prefs.

[emearg]

Hi emearg. I also spotted that and it's on my page where I'm promoting BLIS on yanimon.com ...to boost the SP hopefully. I've got an interest in helping sales !!

The HY report was better than I expected.

There are the really big players such as iherb selling Nature's Plus products now so the BLT sp trend must be upwards ...maybe above 20cps soon after the New year lull?

Disclosure: I hold rather a lot of BLT shares and prefs.

Thanks for the link. It can't help to market the product. Nothing like a little word of mouth advertising either. Perhaps you could keep a bottle on your desk at work? That is something I do anyway.

Nature's Plus are a big player in the retail space, and yes plenty of other folk sell their products as well which is excellent.

I have no idea what the share price will do in the short term, but am pretty darn certain that in five years it's days of being a penny dreadful will be just a distant memory.

I mentioned many months ago that I thought Blis could take advantage of the Swine Flu problem. Some people thought that was inappropriate as there was no data to support the Blis probiotics efficacy against it.

I felt that people would find the option to improve their immune system attractive all things considered.

Blis released a press release to this effect.

I mentioned this again a month or so back in relation to the North American market.

Having listened to the following radio interview with Prof Tagg, I guess I'm not the only one enthusiastic about boosting one's immune system. The radio host certainly was and wouldn't shut up about it being an alternative to nasty swine flu jabs.

Check out the mp3 here:
http://k-talk.dreamhosters.com/MARK%20MAXON/BioGuard.mp3

I found this on the "The Truth About BioGuard" site:
http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/

This site has been mentioned before, and obviously the woman writing the blog is pretty passionate about BioGuard.

Anywho, she goes on to say this:
The Man Behind It All
Listen to the scientist who has spent the last 30 years of his life developing the string of bacteria found in BioGuard. What an amazing, smart man! How lucky we are to have such brilliant people out there that want to help people.

Click Here!
http://k-talk.dreamhosters.com/MARK%20MAXON/BioGuard.mp3
(There's a short commercial break in the middle of it, just skip over that part.)

A few bullets from the radio broadcast: (although I think the broadcast was very informational and not at all boring)

* BioGuard is a healthy bacteria.
* When introduced to the mouth BioGuard promotes the body's response to create additional good bacteria.
* You can't overdose on BioGuard.
* BioGuard gives your immune system a boost.
* NO side effects except: can help with bad breath, oral thrush & periodontal disease. (Not all side effects are bad, I guess!)
* When getting sick or going to be on a plane or other confined space with people, up the dose to 2-3 MeltTabs.
</blog ends>

It seems to me that somebody is doing a good job through radio, print and TV advertising to build the BioGuard brand, and to get people thinking about the potential to boost their immune system through taking this product. The TV commercial was an excellent piece of work in this regard.

I think the marketing approach being taken with this product is light years ahead of how the NZ products have been marketed.

People don't like the idea of dying from SwineFlu and many will be willing to take some action to prevent it from happening even if the action they take isn't proven to be effective. People feel better when they feel they are in control.

It will be fascinating to hear at some point how BioGuard sales go over the North American winter.

[Cannibal]

http://www.a1supplements.com/Maximum-Strength-Ultra-Probiotics-60-Capsules-p-19446.html

[Chippie]

http://www.a1supplements.com/Maximum-Strength-Ultra-Probiotics-60-Capsules-p-19446.html

That sales pitch would hook in my Mother and sisters no worries at all. It sounds pretty good to anyone who already purchases vitamins to stay healthy.

You have to laugh at the $37.95 price (down from $54.95) for a new product. But I am sure it will hook a few bargin hunters :)

[Cannibal]

It seems that all on-line products in this space are discounted from the retail price. I guess that factors in their lower cost of sale and compensates for the postage and packaging costs that have to be added on.

If you look at their Home Page you will see everything discounted - http://www.a1supplements.com/

[Cannibal]

Vietnam now - http://softprovn.net/forum/showthread.php?p=56299

[simla]

Seems like an $11k loss wasn't enough to ignite the market, judging by the share price. I wonder if an $11k profit would have been different! Well, them's the breaks.

It seems like we might be in for a quiet time for a while, especially with Christmas coming, unless we find evidence of all those developments popping up, which we should. Blis did just announce they expected to have initial sales in several other countries, three new manufacturers in the US, new products in Japan and other North Asian markets, and launching M18 into the broader market ... all in the next 4 months, didn't they?

By the way, Cannibal, I suspect the Vietnamese thing is probably using the net to sell things they order in directly from overseas. I've seen things like that in quite a few Asian countries, but haven't reported them here as I always assume the volume is not high.

[Cannibal]

I suspect that you are right but it does not really matter as it opens up another country...

I share your surprise at the lukewarm reception by the market

Revenue up 228%
Deficit down 97%
Net deficit down 56%

Add M18 into the equation which does not really figure in the last results and they are looking at similar stellar revenue increases next half year.

Probiotics are hot - it is a huge growth market. That site I erroneously put up earlier has sold 300,000,000 doses in chewing gum alone.

They are ramping up their production capabilites overseas.

They are building a very strong world-wide brand.

Their partners are blue chip.

They have new products coming on-stream all the time.

Weird...

[fungus pudding]

I suspect that you are right but it does not really matter as it opens up another country...

I share your surprise at the lukewarm reception by the market

Revenue up 228%
Deficit down 97%
Net deficit down 56%




.....running at a loss....
.....no dividend .........

Hardly reasons for the market to get excited.

[Cannibal]

XRO run at a loss
XRO has no dividend
Market is excited by them...

[Zito]

I would argue also that markets get more excited (and conversely, depressed) by the prospects of a company, than they do simply by looking at actual results.

So given that the prospects for the industry as a whole and Blis's place in it are looking bright, I too am surprised that a forward-looking earnings multiple seems yet to be factored in to the share price.

I would be very interested in a forecast price/earnings ratio for the end of the next financial year, ie March 2011, given current projections for revenue growth.

Any thoughts?

[fungus pudding]

I would argue also that markets get more excited (and conversely, depressed) by the prospects of a company going forward, than they do simply by looking at actual results.

Any thoughts?

Yes. I think if you delete the words 'going forward' from the above, then the sentence makes perfect sense.
But it's hard to know what 'the prospects of a company going forward' means unless it's a transport company or similar.

[scamper]

the prospects going forward are to be differentiated from the prospects going backward...
-- when of course the company might grow downwards.

[fungus pudding]

the prospects going forward are to be differentiated from the prospects going backward...
-- when of course the company might grow downwards.


Yes; of course. Silly me. ;):rolleyes:

[emearg]

The Costco News email I receive several times a week has the BioGuard product in it again. Is that the third or fourth time in six weeks? Good to see them advertising it quite intensively.

"Boost Your Immune System". Nice...

[simla]

Emearg, do you want to try to post a bit of the Coscto emails, so we can see for yourselves? The text will just cut and paste across, and you can post images here using the BB codes referred to at the bottom of this page: Images are showed wherever you type image_url.You can usually get the url of an image by right clicking it, and one of the options will open it in another window, showing you the real url of that image.

[emearg]

Sorry, it has already been purged from my email. I have described it before in detail as I recall? Maybe next time? Or you could sign up yourself if you really want to see it.

[simla]

I was really just wanting to get an idea of how effective it was. You say it comes quite often and they mention Bioguard quite a bit, but you haven't made it clear whether it is persuasive or effective, or indeed what portion of the email it takes up. In short, perhaps, would you bother reading them if you weren't interested from the Blis angle?

[emearg]

I was really just wanting to get an idea of how effective it was. You say it comes quite often and they mention Bioguard quite a bit, but you haven't made it clear whether it is persuasive or effective, or indeed what portion of the email it takes up. In short, perhaps, would you bother reading them if you weren't interested from the Blis angle?

The email probably featured about 30 products with pictures and a wee very short blurb for each.

Split into rows with three or four products in a row.

The BioGuard product doesn't stand out any more than any other product.

Hard to rate it because of my obvious interest.

The thing that really captures your attention are the words in the picture "Boost Your Immune System!". That makes you look a little harder at it.

I am pretty sure (from memory) that it is the same picture they have somewhere on the BioGuardHealth website. It has a picture of the product and the words "Ideal for School, Work, Travel"

In these Swine Flu times, and heading into the North American winter I suspect those words will capture a few peoples attention. Maybe even enough to click the link through to the product on Costco.com

Only time will tell, but I think the marketing approach taken is much more effective than simply telling customers it will improve their oral health. What does that mean to most people? I like the "defense" approach. I like the "advanced probiotic protection" approach. I like the "Boost your immune system" approach.

I like that Costco and Imagenetix are pushing their new product. Hopefully the sales will be good enough that Costco will roll it out network wide soon.

I wonder what other companies are doing to advertise their new products? What are Nature's Plus doing?

We saw some evidence LEF was proactive at the launch of their Oral Health product, but nothing since that I am aware of.

[emearg]

While there is every possibility that the information contained on Twitter is incorrect I thought I would post it anyways as it may actually be correct...

The link is
http://twitter.com/CulturedCare

The critical bit is:
* Name: CulturedCare
* Location: Vancouver BC
* Bio: We make Canada's first Probiotic Gum - with BlisK12! Available December 2009. (Kamelia tweeting probiotic health news)

[simla]

Thanks for that, Emearg. And the Canada thing's interesting, but it seems a bit quick. We'll see.

[simla]

Talking of Canada, and with Blis opening in Canada some time soonish, the Winter Olympics are in Vancouver in February. It would be a steep marketing challenge to make much of that, I'd have thought, though. Vancouver is right on the US border next to Seattle, where the Bioguard trial is, and has several Costcos itself. Just a coincidence.

[Cannibal]

Not sure if this has been posted before...

http://vitanetonline.com/description/NP1120/vitamins/Whole-Food-Total-Body-Cleanse-With-Acai-and-Exotic-Super-Fruits/

Whole Food Total Body Cleanse With Acai and Exotic Super Fruits

It contains K12 and M18.

Blis is fast becoming the de facto product in their field across the world.

[simla]

By my count, Nature's Plus have the following with Blis ingredients. I think the Adult's Dental Care is the only quite recent one?

K12:
Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
Source of Life® Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support

M18:
Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint

Including some K12 and/or M18:
Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tabs & Tablets
Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules

Other products that I can think of with Blis ingredients:

Imagenetix Bioguard
Solaray Oral Flora
VegLife Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene
Biogenesis Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
Epoca
KForce
Aktiv-k12

And, of course:

Blis Throat Guard Daily
Blis Throat Guard Boost
Blis Travel Guard
Blis Bio Restore
Blis Fresh Breath Kit
Blis Rapid Eze Gargle

I make that 21 products that we are aware of containing Blis ingredients. Errata welcome.

[simla]

Meanwhile, a Senior Associate Editor of Food Technology magazine had this to say about SupplySide West, the huge trade show Blis just attended again:

"The event, held on Nov. 11–13 in Las Vegas, featured more than 1,100 exhibitors, nearly 90 hours of educational opportunities, and a wide range of ingredient innovations suitable to make foods and beverages better for you without compromising their functionality."

He listed 13 things he liked there (from, yes, 1100 exhibitors), and Blis chewing gum was number 6 on his list.

http://foodtecheperspective.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/2009-supplyside-west-benefits-from-lucky-13/

[emearg]

Yesterdays Costco email also has BioGuard in it.

I hope the extra exposure has the desired effect.

Here is a partial screenshot:

[simla]

Thanks, that's clear now.

[Cannibal]

I signed up to Costco too - an onerous process! I got the same email. Very slick it is too.
Considering that Costco have literally thousands of products it is interesting that they choose to showcase Blis consistently.

This has me more excited though - it is from simla's link above -

A prototype chewing gum functioned as an immune system booster for adults as well as children. The product—developed through a collaboration between Frutarom and Tab Laboratories—featured BLIS K12, a new oral probiotic bacteria. A one-piece serving delivers 20 mg of the probiotic—an amount shown to help boost immune system protection.

[simla]

Even the SupplySide's own brief "wrap-up of highlights" mentioned the Blis chewing gum. I wonder if it the K12 or the probiotic chewing gum they like, or just the combination.

http://edaily.supplysideshow.com/blogdefault.aspx/a/innovative-ingredients-rule-supplyside-west-2.html/m/art

[emearg]

Even the SupplySide's own brief "wrap-up of highlights" mentioned the Blis chewing gum. I wonder if it the K12 or the probiotic chewing gum they like, or just the combination.

http://edaily.supplysideshow.com/blogdefault.aspx/a/innovative-ingredients-rule-supplyside-west-2.html/m/art

It is good to see it getting so much coverage considering how many other products there are out there!

There will be plenty of potential partners now aware of it, so I think we can expect to see a product some time quite soon.

I still wonder about the GRAS issues? Perhaps it won't be sold as a general product in every dairy, but as a nutritional product in much the same way as the tablets are?

Or maybe it might even be picked up by a company that distributes to NZ and Aussi where it could be sold as a mainstream product.

So many possibilities which is better than no possibilities but only time will tell what will actually happen!

[simla]

You sort of get the feeling it's going to be a long, slow summer on the NZ sharemarket. I suspect that Blis could strike oil and nobody would react before next February! Still, I could easily be wrong about that, and possibly an opportunity for those who stay awake. It needn't stop us noticing developments anyway - we know it's not summer in the US or Asia.

[simla]

The December edition of the Costco Connection magazine is out, and has a half page ad for Bioguard on page 56 of 97 ... along with a half page ad for Celadrin, also by Imagenetix. Page 56 isn't bad though, as the entire magazine is clearly the Christmas catalogue, so pretty good to have put aside room for Bioguard.

[brucea]

I have been a long time supporter of Blis Technologies because I believe in the product it sells and I think it has huge potential for world-wide sales. The scientific background to Blis K12 makes sense to me although I have heard some people also with a with medical background sneer about Blis which I put down to jealousy or the tall poppy syndrome. I look forward to the toothpaste with additive (I think it is called m8) being made available in NZ. I wonder if the K12 Or m8) could be embedded in dental floss strips?

[Glendoonie]

... The scientific background to Blis K12 makes sense to me although I have heard some people also with a with medical background sneer about Blis which I put down to jealousy or the tall poppy syndrome.
Yep. medics can sneer all they like. Very few of them are scientists. The scientific background to Blis K12 made sense to me too. I was a patent examiner after being a scientist. I keep telling people the science behind Blis' formulae is good and the products are novel. Problem is, the marketing of this wonderful stuff has been crap, so there has been little exposure and few sales. This is heartbreaking for investors in BLT. :(

G

[simla]

I don't think there's too much more we could ask of the marketing now, which is definitely gathering momentum all the time. And, indeed, the last annoucement even said, "We are extremely encouraged by the significant investments that third parties are making in development and marketing of products based on our proprietary ingredients."

Incidentally, I am not that inclined to critise the past myself. It was a very big ask, and an ask that was answered well enough that the company is here today and prospering, which cannot be said of some other startups. It really is an enormous job to take an idea and turn it into a commercial success. The early years will always be difficult. For example, I was reading of one startup abroad recently where the company name and products were sold to avoid bankruptcy, but the board and most of the employees and most of the shareholders were jettisoned. Blis's early years have been way more successful than that. Yes, a perfect strategy might have produced a quicker result, but the necessary purpose was nevertheless served, and I am grateful to them for keeping the dream alive.

[Glendoonie]

I don't think there's too much more we could ask of the marketing now, which is definitely gathering momentum...I would be asking for more exposure on the TV and radio to begin with. Given all the stupid products that are given more then their fair share of air time, why can't Blis products be marketed seriously; not piecemeal as they have been?

[simla]

Your comments raise the interesting question of working capital. Expansion costs money, or more specifically, cash. Blis stated some time ago that spending money on advertising in NZ was expected to return less than spending money on selling ingredients in the US.

The 2007 annual report stated quite plainly, "Product sales in New Zealand were slightly lower than the previous year reflecting the change in focus associated with a reduced emphasis on the New Zealand market and the associated reduction in expenditure on advertising. The strategy for the local market is under review. BLIS K12 TravelGuard, a product targeted at air travellers, was launched in 2006. While customer feedback has been excellent and sales are growing, the commercial success of a consumer product requires major investment which is not the current focus of the Company." Then, "The priority for the Company is to achieve profitability through the development of key international partnerships."

I imagine most of us now think the deliberate decision to concentrate on "key international partnerships" is paying off in spades.

But even that strategy needs cash. If the K12 chewing gum starts appearing on the market in the next 6 to 12 months, Blis may have a pretty happy product mix on it's hands. K12, as a throat guard, is hopefully selling pretty well in the US over their winter now, but may drop away over their summer. Taking up that slack, however, we might expect progress in Asia, and possibly the initial growth of K12 chewing gum (quite a different market I would have said) as well as progress in expanding M18. Then the following northern winter, the K12 should be picking up at the same time as chewing gum and M18 are showing growth, while we also expect Nestle may hit the market then, plus growth in other countries as well. Potentially, that could be pretty happy news for sales. But it will all have to be supported by cash flow, because the cost of manufacture comes before the sales revenue, possibly by a few months, or even more, and faster sales growth requires more working capital.

The 2009 annual report described the $3m rights issue, "The directors consider this additional capital will be sufficient to fund operations for at least three years. The company has business plans and budgets which indicate that positive operating cash flows will be generated during this timeframe." I imagine the Board faced two very different futures in deciding that: one was for a future of expenses continuing to exceed sales; and the other for rapid growth in sales, but eating up working capital. Quite a difficult judgement call.

Yes, advertising is the name of the game in the end. But cash has to be used like a game of chess, and the advertising is presumably starting to gain momentum now. In any event, we know that Blis was advertised on the radio in NZ this year near the end of winter (p41 of this thread), so progress is being made there. And we know that Bioguard is on TV at least in some of the US http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/2009/10/bioguard-tv-commercial.html and in the Costco promotional material. We just do not know what promotion is happening otherwise, but it seems likely these various manufacturers are not just dropping their products on the market and then doing nothing about them.

[brucea]

I have learned the hard way to hold on to shares from a company that you believe strongly in! I bought Infratil when they first listed but was persuaded by a stock broker to sell them a few years later when he said they "had done their dash" even though I thought they had great potential. So I was very pursed-lipped when they continued to climb well above the price I sold them for. Now I take responsibility for my own decisions whether to buy or sell. As I said before I believe in the Blis K12 products as I found it worked for me and is a far better alternative to alcohol-base mouth wash formulations like Listerine etc which work temporarily and mainly disguise "bad breath" problems and do not deal with the root cause. There must be a huge market out there for this product (and M18), although it would take time and money to break into this when competing with established players. I have a medical technology background and the scientific background to the product development appeals to me. I enjoy reading Simla's informed comments too! It is interesting to track the number of Google hits when you key in "Blis K12" - that is using the " before and after - currently 114,000. yes, they are still speculative shares, but hey, not boring and VERY interesting to watch!

[PL]

Does anybody have any ideas why Blis hasn't targeted the UK market. I'd be surprised if the barriers to entry (regulatory or commercial) are any greater than the US. Or have they, and I've just missed it.

The population is large and the winters are long so the opportunities must be considerable.

[Cannibal]

There are several UK sites that feature Blis including -

http://www.breezecare.co.uk/index.html?gclid=CNGEt6mhu54CFSFRagodkXmklg
http://www.ukbreathclinic.co.uk/ukcard/index.html
http://www.kforce.co.uk/
http://www.buyhealthsupplements.co.uk/en/cp/Bad_Breath_Treatment
http://www.the-dentist.co.uk/Practice%20Management1.html

[simla]

Here's a question for those so inclined:

One of the founders of Revlon famously said, "In our factory we make cosmetics. In the store we sell hope." Indeed, you can see this approach in the TV ads of most successful multinationals.

If Blis manufactures probiotics in the factory, what is it customers are buying in the store?

[Cannibal]

Well - the silence was defeaning on that question...

Heh!

It would be good if they updated the market on progress prior to Xmas but that is not their strong suit.

Their last report was not well timed - M18 had only just hit the market and some indication of its progress would be useful.

[brucea]

Here's a question for those so inclined:

One of the founders of Revlon famously said, "In our factory we make cosmetics. In the store we sell hope." Indeed, you can see this approach in the TV ads of most successful multinationals.

If Blis manufactures probiotics in the factory, what is it customers are buying in the store?

Yes, a pertinent question! I guess I started buying Blis K12 because of the confidence that it gave me that my breath was free of unpleasant odours (please don't all rush to kiss me!). Maybe Blis is selling "confidence to socialise with others" ... I would like to hear other ideas on this question

[simla]

Meanwhile, some progress in Taiwan: http://www.maxcarecorp.com/pub/LIT_2.asp?catid=2613

"Founded in 1999, MAXCARE focus in R&D, and is one of the leading distributors for nutraceutical raw materials , and is able to offer a complete portfolio of products, technological development support and logistic services.

A month or two ago, we also found Nutrisense listing Blis in Taiwan, also offering neutraceutical ingredients. Presumably we will we see some finished products after a bit. I wonder if these companies distribute beyond Taiwan.

[Cannibal]

Imagenetix, Inc. have released their second quarter profits and the don't get much better. Blis is front and centre in their press release too - woo hoo!

http://www.lifesciencesworld.com/life-science-news/view/123825?page=12

- Second Quarter Net Income Increases by 178% from Prior Year

- Second Quarter Revenue Increases to $1,901,000 from First Quarter's $1,702,000


Commenting on the results of the second quarter, Mr. William Spencer, Imagenetix Chief Executive Officer said, “We once again are encouraged by the increase in sales of our own branded product, InflameAway Celadrin, which continues to be well received in the food, drug and mass market segments. Also, we were pleased to introduce BioGuard, an immune boosting probiotic for the ear, nose and throat, into the largest club store warehouse during the quarter and the recent issuance of a patent for our early stage drug candidate, 1-TDC, to address periodontal diseases. We will continue to expand TV advertising to increase awareness of both InflameAway Celadrin and BioGuard. We anticipate this marketing program for the mass market segment to continue to result in improved sales.

[Chippie]

That has got to be encouraging news for BLT. BioGuard must be going okay.

[simla]

10th of November, someone called Cannibal reported, "Imagenetix have released their 2nd quarter results and Blis is front and centre in the report...." Nice one. Still good news though. Their next quarter will presumably come out about early February, therefore?

[emearg]

10th of November, someone called Cannibal reported, "Imagenetix have released their 2nd quarter results and Blis is front and centre in the report...." Nice one. Still good news though. Their next quarter will presumably come out about early February, therefore?

It concerns me Simla how well you know this thread!! Perhaps a little more time spent outdoors would be a good idea? ;-)

But to be slightly serious for just a moment...what exactly is a 'supply buyout agreement'?

Imagenetix mention one in their announcement.

<snip>The current fiscal year period was positively impacted by a one time buy out agreement of $1,250,000.</snip>

<snip>Our cash position was bolstered in early October as the result of entering into a supply buyout agreement with a customer.”</snip>

I don't know what one is, and the internet doesn't help much so time to make a guess. Feel free to correct me please!

Imagenetix have produced a product called BioGuard. They could (try to) sell it widely. Instead it seems that only Costco have it. Why? Perhaps because Costco have given them some money for the exclusive right to sell it?

Why would Costco do that? Perhaps they see big things for the product and want to corner the market? Perhaps they are partners with Imagenetix and fund their developments? Perhaps the money up front ensures a cheaper supply? Or perhaps???

Or perhaps I am way off target here?

Any thoughts are welcome!

[simla]

I just have a fairly photographic memory, Emearg. That's why I can usually give quotes to illustrate my arguments, because I can usually more or less see the page I saw it written on in my mind, making it pretty easy to track down the actual quote.

I think the supply buy out is probably unrelated to Blis. This is one description of such a buy out for example, "The early termination of the Supply Agreement also provides XXX the opportunity to pursue strategic relationships with other suppliers and customers which were previously prohibited by the terms of the Supply Agreement." So I think it is probably money paid to end a contractual obligation rather than start one.

It is interesting that Costco seem to have Bioguard to themselves though.

Instinct tells me that things should be happening out there, but they do not seem to be showing up in the searches. Time will tell, as usual.

[emearg]

Thanks Simla. You are almost certainly right.

It is interesting to note how many people are picking BLT for the 2010 Share Investing Comp.

Check it out:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=7404

It seems that others are reasonably certain that the Blis shares will do well next year.

Of course it is easy when there isn't any money involved!

I will be picking them as one of my five and I have plenty riding on their success!

[Cannibal]

K12 chewing gum available in Canada...

They only have a Facebook site which is kinda weird but they are building their own website.

CulturedCare (TM) is a fresh addition to the Prairie Naturals family of natural health products. We create innovative probiotic health products based on scientific research.Mission:CulturedCare is dedicated to working with accomplished scientists in the field of probiotics to develop safe and efficacious products that promote overall health, provide infection protection, and enhance quality of life.Products:Our flagship product, CulturedCareTM Probiotic Gum with BLIS K12, is the first probiotic gum in Canada.

Made in Canada using a unique cold-pressed technology, CulturedCareTM Probiotic Gum delivers a deliciously fresh and powerful dose of BLIS K12 TM patented probiotic.

It is based upon years of research in the labs of Professor John Tagg, a scientist in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the University of Otago in New Zealand.

Professor Tagg’s research supports his premise that “infection protection starts in the mouth.” CulturedCareTM Probiotic Gum with BLIS K12 TM:

*Contains 500 million active bacteria at packaging

*Supports immunity and oral health http://www.facebook.com/notes/culturedcare-probiotics/culturedcare-probiotic-gum-with-blis-k12/228495041046#/pages/CulturedCare-Probiotics/177175893719?ref=mf http://viewer.zoho.com/docs/efbdIb

[simla]

That really is excellent news. With it being only on twitter, I wasn't sure how real it was. But the work is obviously being put in on it, so it's looking real. Also it mentions being made via cold press in Canada, and I hadn't noticed that Tab Labs was in Canada, so it sounds like them (but doesn't say so).

But the blurb at the side used to say available in December but now says January. Is this waiting for Canadian drug approval perhaps? There is the comment on facebook, http://www.facebook.com/pages/CulturedCare-Probiotics/177175893719?ref=mf "I was realy happy to have some on hand for my flight to Toronto", so it presumably already exists.

There is a photo of a display stand (think counter-top-sized, I imagine), http://photos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/hs119.snc3/16664_196843278719_177175893719_2965279_7576596_n. jpg and of a packet (I think) http://photos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/hs119.snc3/16664_196806548719_177175893719_2965176_6769375_n. jpg

The web site is coming, but nothing there yet: http://www.culturedcare.com/

That facebook page says the ad, http://viewer.zoho.com/docs/efbdIb , is apparently a full page ad in "Alive Magazine! " http://www.alive.com/index.php (I assume), which describes itself as: "For more than 30 years, alive magazine has been Canada’s recognized leader in the field of health and wellness. Every month hundreds of thousands of people turn to the latest issue of alive to keep themselves up to date with current trends in natural health. People who want to take control over one of the most important contributors to a good life–their health–use alive as their indispensable resource.

Cultured Care, according to the facebook page of Cultured Care http://www.facebook.com/pages/CulturedCare-Probiotics/177175893719?v=info&ref=mf#info_edit_sections , is done by Prairie Naturals, http://www.prairienaturals.ca/ (I assume) who describe themselves as, "Prairie Naturals is a privately owned, family business headquartered near Vancouver, BC, Canada. Our core business is the research, development, marketing and distribution of more than 100 premium quality nutritional supplements, natural hair and natural body care products. The Prairie Naturals brand is sold through hundreds of retail stores from coast to coast, across Canada."

So this is excellent news in that the product is about to hit the shelves apparently. But it is also excellent news in showing that it could hit the shelves via other distributors/manufacturers quite quickly too, presumably.

[Cannibal]

Phew - I didn't get told off by Simla!

Yep - a mainstream product at last. This is where the volume market is!

[simla]

Very good. Yes, could be the start of a big market, Cannibal. Interesting that they are pushing the "protection" message, leaving the fresh breath chewing gum market open at this point.

[Cannibal]

An interesting article here - http://www.f09a03t05.info/index.html
We are a team of eight Boston University School of Management students, working to develop a new product idea. When looking at snack foods sold for kids, we found a huge need for snacks that combine the vitamins and nutrients you need for your kids with the great taste that your kids actually want to eat. So, we decided to combine our talents and interests to create a frozen pop that both you and your kids will love.

Check out how Mighty Ice can help your kids build strong bones, fight sickness, and protect their teeth:

"K12 could be found in 2% of the population, and that these lucky people rarely became ill"
(http://www.breezecare.com/probiotics/index.html)
“The new…M18 product is targeted at the prevention of tooth decay….”
(http://sharetrader.co.nz/Blis Tech acheives momentum.pdf)
“Xylitol is a naturally occurring, low-calorie sugar substitute….xylitol can reduce the occurrence of dental caries in young children..." (http://www.xlear.com/research-articles-dental-caries.aspx)

“Significant reduction in plaque score for those who took S. salivarius strain” (http://www.ultraprobioticsplus.com/docs/Clinicaltrialsummary.pdf)

"...a significantly lower percentage of schoolchildren suffered from a bacterial throat infection (“Strep throat”) if they naturally harboured BLIS-producing bacteria in their mouth." (http://www.blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=Probiotics&p=Throat-and-Oral-Health)


Have a look through the site - it is interesting.
It shows that the Blis message is a good one and it is getting out there across the board.

This line is hidden away...
Disclaimer: This website is a part of a class project and does not describe an actual product offering.

[tango]

Blis sounds like an interesting company. The part I'm not clear on is what exactly are they patenting? They can't patent a natural strain of bacteria so they must have some unique method of extraction or processing? If not, then the competitors can launch the same product, and if they have bigger pockets they can do better.

I tried looking at the NZ patent applications but I didn't understand what exactly was being patented. Does anyone know?

[tango]

I found a US patent application here

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=7595041.PN.&OS=PN/7595041&RS=PN/7595041

I still wonder how difficult it would be for someone else to also extract the S. salivarius strain and create competing products that BLIS would not be able to protect against.

[Glendoonie]

Blis sounds like an interesting company. The part I'm not clear on is what exactly are they patenting? They can't patent a natural strain of bacteria so they must have some unique method of extraction or processing? If not, then the competitors can launch the same product, and if they have bigger pockets they can do better.

I tried looking at the NZ patent applications but I didn't understand what exactly was being patented. Does anyone know?

It's been quite a wee while since I did this sort of stuff, but I hope this helps. Publication no. WO/2005/007178 is what you need for a Google search. I have included a small description of the invention and a few claimx. There is a lot more to read

Pub. No.:

WO/2005/007178

International Application No.:

PCT/NZ2004/000153
Publication Date:
27.01.2005
International Filing Date:
19.07.2004

IPC:
A61K 33/20 (2006.01), A61K 35/74 (2006.01)
Applicants:
BLIS TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED [NZ/NZ]; Level 10 Otago House, Dunedin (NZ) (All Except US).
TAGG, John, Robert [AU/NZ]; (NZ) (US Only).
CHILCOTT, Christopher, Norman [NZ/NZ]; (NZ) (US Only).
BURTON, Jeremy, Paul [AU/NZ]; (NZ) (US Only).
Inventors:
TAGG, John, Robert; (NZ).
CHILCOTT, Christopher, Norman; (NZ).
BURTON, Jeremy, Paul; (NZ).


TREATMENT OF MALODOUR


FIELD OF THE INVENTION This invention relates to methods of inhibiting growth of anaerobic bacteria, particularly halitosis causing bacteria, and to the use of BLIS-producing Streptococcus salivarius strains, extracts thereof, and compositions containing same in the prevention or treatment of halitosis.

CLAIMS: 1. A method for at least inhibiting the growth of anaerobic bacteria sensitive to BLIS-producing S. salivarius, the method comprising contacting the sensitive bacteria with an inhibitory effective amount of a BLIS-producing S. salivarius, or an extract thereof, or a composition comprising said S. salivarius or extract thereof.

2. A method according to claim 1 wherein the anaerobic bacteria are in the oral cavity of an individual.

3. A method of prophylactic or therapeutic treatment of halitosis in an individual in need thereof, the method comprising administering to said individual a BLIS- producing S. salivarius, extract thereof, or composition comprising said S. salivarius or extract thereof, effective to at least inhibit growth of anaerobic bacteria, or in an amount to allow effective colonisation in the oral cavity of the individual by BLIS-producing S. salivarius.

4. A method of controlling the incidence and/or severity of halitosis, the method comprising introducing into the oral cavity of an individual susceptible to halitosis, an amount of a BLIS-producing S. salivarius, extract thereof, or composition comprising said S. salivarius or extract thereof, effective to control the incidence and/or severity of said halitosis.

[tango]

BLIS-producing Streptococcus salivarius strains, extracts thereof, and compositions containing same in the prevention or treatment of halitosis

Thanks Glendoonie

My patent law is rusty but I thought you couldn't patent naturally occurring substances i.e. the Streptococcus salivarius strains only the process or method of extraction. This patent seems to patent the strain and all the recipes or uses of it so that would be where they get their advantage - being the first to apply it to treating throat problems and bad breath.

[Glendoonie]

My patent law is rusty but I thought you couldn't patent naturally occurring substances i.e. the Streptococcus salivarius strains only the process or method of extraction. This patent seems to patent the strain and all the recipes or uses of it so that would be where they get their advantage - being the first to apply it to treating throat problems and bad breath.
You are quite right wrt patenting of naturally occurring substances. However, their claim 1 is directed in part to,
"A method for at least inhibiting the growth of anaerobic bacteria sensitive to BLIS-producing S. salivarius ...".
Now, that claim could be thrown out because it's a method of medical treatment, the patenting of which is a no-no, but who's to say what claims were actually accepted in what form patent protection was granted. We were told that's for the Courts to decide.

[neopoleII]

in laymans terms...........
the patent protects the decades of work invested in finding which ones of the millions of bugs in the human system is benifical to humans.
naturally occuring bugs, chemicals or emzymes cannot be patented, but the discovery of which ones are benifical can be patented.
otherwise ...... why spend cash and time working in a lab only to give away the discovery?
now some one can legally try to sythesis k12 and sell it legally........ but that is in the realms of bio enginering........ and that is still way beyond todays techology of splicing a few genes together to get a blue tomato.

[Chippie]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10616171

Hopefully Barry is in Auckland today?

[simla]

Blis is already well ahead on the China front, Chippie. I found these on the Blis website, where you can check them for yourselves if anyone is interested:


2008 annual report - [In] China...[Blis] has developed a strong and willing commercial partnership, which will facilitate commercialisation upon regulatory approval.

2009 half year report - The Company has maintained good progress in developing relationships in Asia, especially China and Korea.

March 2009, Special Meeting Shareholder Update - BLIS has signed distribution and marketing agreement in China for finished products with NZ Co. operating in China and partner, wholly owned by Provincial Govt. Seeking regulatory approval for BLIS K12. (It has taken two years to complete these projects)

2009 full year report - In China BLIS has signed a manufacturing and marketing agreement with NZPR Group and associated Chinese interests who are currently seeking regulatory approval for BLIS K12 in that market. The agreement with Frutarom excludes China.

AGM Presentation July 2009 -  NZPR Group submitting New Resource approval in China.

2010 half year report - BLIS Technologies is also currently involved in regulatory submissions in China, Korea and other Asian markets.


I really don't know how Dunedin keeps track of all the projects they are working on!

[tango]

BLIS sounds exciting. If I had bad breath I'd buy the product and try it to see how well it works. Pity it doesn't work on dogs :)

[emearg]

BLIS sounds exciting. If I had bad breath I'd buy the product and try it to see how well it works. Pity it doesn't work on dogs :)

But Blis isn't just about bad breath you know? There are products that target bad breath, but there are also products that target general oral health, ear infections, tooth decay etc.

Check out a few of these links for a broader idea of how it is being used/marketed.

http://www.naturesplus.com/products/keyword.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=k12
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/keyword.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=m18
http://bioguardhealth.com/

Currently Blis are marketing K12 and M18. Q24 is in the works and is focused on topical applications. Hints around possible uses have been released by Blis include the treatment of acne. When/if it will be commercialised is anybodies guess, but none of us were expecting M18 (previously called MIA) to be released anytime soon, and yet it was unleashed on the world just a few months ago.

Chewing gum will be coming out next month in Canada that contains K12. Good overall health booster they reckon. What I reckon is when they start including M18 in it that will be quite something. Imagine a chewing gum that fights tooth decay. Kids will love it, and Mum will find it hard to say no as it will be good for the kiddies and not just fun for them to chew!

If you are on FaceBook check this out:
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/photo.php?pid=2965189&id=177175893719

[Cannibal]

I posted the Facebook stuff a couple of days ago!!!

I like this as well - http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=1120

[emearg]

I posted the Facebook stuff a couple of days ago!!!

I know Cannibal! Actually I think we must have some of the same Google Alerts set up but you are far quicker than me to post following receiving one! I don't mind :-)


I like this as well - http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=1120

Considering there is only 2mg worth of probiotics in this product, of which K12 and M18 are just two of about a dozen, I don't know why they bother?!!?? They will need to sell alot of it for it to be a significant earner for Blis!

I note iHerb.com ship to NZ for as little as $4 for up to $80 US worth of goodies. I might have to place an order before next winter I think. I can't think of a good reason to keep buying the ThroatGuard when it only has a small number of K12 bacteria compared to most of the other products, and it is more expensive than some of them to! Any thoughts?

[simla]

Not sure what to say, Emearg. The expense does not seem huge over a year. As for effectiveness of different doses, that's a scientific question.

[tango]

Thanks for the links. Yes I did check out BioGuard but I haven't seen the other links. The bit I don't understand about BioGuard. They say it cares for your ear nose and throat. I could understand if it was a nasal spray how it reaches the ears and throat, but how does something you melt in your mouth travel up your nasal passages and into the ear canal to provide protective bacteria?

I'd like to try the BioGuard as I've had a lot of infections in the past. Where do you buy it in NZ? Is it in chemists or do I have to buy it online?

Acne would be a big market!

I'm sure for people who have bad breath that any product that helps and is easy to use will be a winner. Hmmmm wonders about buying it for my mother. Think she'll be offended?

You guys have got me so excited that I've placed an order with my broker for some shares but so far no bites. I guess they don't trade often. Will see if anyone sells some next week to get cash for Christmas

[tango]

I note iHerb.com ship to NZ for as little as $4 for up to $80 US worth of goodies. I might have to place an order before next winter I think. I can't think of a good reason to keep buying the ThroatGuard when it only has a small number of K12 bacteria compared to most of the other products, and it is more expensive than some of them to! Any thoughts?

What are you using it for? And what benefit do you get from it?

Are you using it as a preventative measure or are you treating existing problems? I've had problems with my throat in the past so I think I'll try to get hold of some and see if it helps. I've tried active manuka honey but it only soothes the throat, it doesn't help long term

Looks like it's going to rain so I better get outside and get some stuff done

[tango]

by the way did you guys know there is a story about Blis in the Dec/Jan issue of Unlimited magazine? page 101

I'm new to this thread so I don't know if you've discussed this earlier. If you haven't seen it I can scan it although I'm not sure where I can upload it. I don't have a photobucket account but I could open one

[Ponda]

I'd like to try the BioGuard as I've had a lot of infections in the past. Where do you buy it in NZ? Is it in chemists or do I have to buy it online?


Tango,
You can buy it from a chemist. Well, I've seen it in the chemist where I live, so I presume that you are able to buy it from most chemist shops.

Feedback that we have had on this forum is that it does work well.

Cheers, Ponda

[brucea]

Thanks for the links. Yes I did check out BioGuard but I haven't seen the other links. The bit I don't understand about BioGuard. They say it cares for your ear nose and throat. I could understand if it was a nasal spray how it reaches the ears and throat, but how does something you melt in your mouth travel up your nasal passages and into the ear canal to provide protective bacteria?

I'd like to try the BioGuard as I've had a lot of infections in the past. Where do you buy it in NZ? Is it in chemists or do I have to buy it online?

Acne would be a big market!

I'm sure for people who have bad breath that any product that helps and is easy to use will be a winner. Hmmmm wonders about buying it for my mother. Think she'll be offended?

You guys have got me so excited that I've placed an order with my broker for some shares but so far no bites. I guess they don't trade often. Will see if anyone sells some next week to get cash for Christmas
Many older people who wear dentures have what is politely termed "denture breath" caused by bacteria that breed within the pores of the plastic denture -apparently many of the denture cleaning products do not prevent this problem. I am not sure whether Blis K12 would prevent this but maybe Blis could come up with a denture soaking product? I would think this would be a significant market for this so we could kiss our older relatives with confidence!! Notice how the conventional teeth cleaning brands talk about "fighting bad breath" whereas I believe Blis K12 prevents it in the first place. Long term use of alcohol based mouthwash has been identified as a health risk and usually only temporarily masks mouth odour; some mouth was brands can lead to staining of enamel and tartar buildup.

[brucea]

Oops - I meant to say "mouth wash brands" in the last sentence

[simla]

This chewing gum thing is getting interesting. If you look at the facebook page, they've now got a preview of a pretty good looking website. There's also the Blis K12tm logo, and (an animated?) logo for CulturedCare itself. Add to that the use of twitter and facebook, and it is starting to look like a pretty professional marketing job altogether, which could therefore be quite effective. And if you check out their store locator, there are a lot of stores - seemingly health stores on the whole. And they say that many of the stores do international shipping orders.

[emearg]

Yesterday I performed the rather tedious task of counting the number of stores, and it was 105.

There is nothing to suggest the gum will end up in all of them but you never know...

Getting the stuff online is very important IMHO. It opens up small international sales to individuals in countries where K12 hasn't had regulatory approval yet.

The website looks good.

One thing they don't say is that they have exclusive rights to the gum. So, it seems reasonable to think that they don't and we will see others bring products to market. Soon I suspect.

Again I take pleasure in commenting on how swift the various Blis/Frutatrom, and in this case TabLabs, partners are at bringing products to market. It amazes me!!

[fungus pudding]

Yesterday I performed the rather tedious task of counting the number of stores, and it was 105.

There is nothing to suggest the gum will end up in all of them but you never know...

Getting the stuff online is very important IMHO. It opens up small international sales to individuals in countries where K12 hasn't had regulatory approval yet.

The website looks good.

One thing they don't say is that they have exclusive rights to the gum. So, it seems reasonable to think that they don't and we will see others bring products to market. Soon I suspect.

Again I take pleasure in commenting on how swift the various Blis/Frutatrom, and in this case TabLabs, partners are at bringing products to market. It amazes me!!

So where are the mathematicians? How much will the turnover have to reach to earn sufficient profit to pay a 1 cent dividend per share? IOW to make the shares worth somewhere near their current price.

[emearg]

So where are the mathematicians? How much will the turnover have to reach to earn sufficient profit to pay a 1 cent dividend per share? IOW to make the shares worth somewhere near their current price.

Who knows how much turnover they will need really but what I can say is:

There are 138,846,586 ordinaries out there.

So, to have EPS of 1 cent they need a profit of $1,388,466

If they were to distribute 100% of the profit that would be your 1 cent per dividend share.

The share price for Blis has always been based on potential and not on revenue or profit.

Back in 2001 (give or take a year or so) when it was near $1 it was based on potential. Five years ago it was around 20 to 25 cents and it was based on potential. Earlier this year it was at 3.5 cents and it was based on potential. The markets evaluation of Blis's potential has reduced hugely over the years! I think the market as a whole gave up on Blis years ago.

It will take a lot of success for Blis to be valued again as a growth company with a share price to match.

It seems to me that the company is turning itself around, and has made dramatic progress over the past 12 months but still has a long way to go before the market starts to value it as a growth share and starts to get excited. Having said that, it is way ahead of its recent lows so notice of progress has been taken.

But if/when it gains favour I think the market will get excited. It certainly did over PlusSMS and Sealegs just to name a couple. It would be very easy for the Blis shares to get caught by hype.

For me, I have bought a heap of ordinaries and preference shares this year as the progress has become evident, and the potential looks more and more likely to be realised. I have bought them based on that potential and not on their current earnings or potential for dividends in the next year or two.

Several months ago I publicly set a revenue target of two million for the financial year. I said if they achieve this I will be happy as it validates my belief they are on the right track. If they don't, then I will have to reconsider my holding. I am feeling pretty confident they will reach that target.

The more interesting thing to ponder now is what sort of revenues will Blis be achieving in the following few years?

What effect will gain GRASsa have?

What effect will Nestle launching a baby formula product have?

What effect will their research with the other global consumer products company have?

What effect will the numerous other developments have?

[emearg]

Tango,
You can buy it from a chemist. Well, I've seen it in the chemist where I live, so I presume that you are able to buy it from most chemist shops.

Feedback that we have had on this forum is that it does work well.

Cheers, Ponda

Where do you like Ponda? I thought the BioGuard product is only available in selected Costco shops it North America?

[fungus pudding]

Who knows how much turnover they will need really but what I can say is:

There are 138,846,586 ordinaries out there.

So, to have EPS of 1 cent they need a profit of $1,388,466

If they were to distribute 100% of the profit that would be your 1 cent per dividend share.

The share price for Blis has always been based on potential and not on revenue or profit.

Back in 2001 (give or take a year or so) when it was near $1 it was based on potential. Five years ago it was around 20 to 25 cents and it was based on potential. Earlier this year it was at 3.5 cents and it was based on potential. The markets evaluation of Blis's potential has reduced hugely over the years! I think the market as a whole gave up on Blis years ago.

It will take a lot of success for Blis to be valued again as a growth company with a share price to match.




But at 10 -11 cents a share with a turnover less than a corner dairy, and no real distributable profit in the foreseeable future, it IS being valued as a growth company - but not widely so. Turnover in shares is pathetically small, and I'd say propped up by the Blis fan club. If a few of the collectors go back to bed for a while the price would quickly go back down.

[Ponda]

Where do you like Ponda? I thought the BioGuard product is only available in selected Costco shops it North America?

Bugger, my mistake. Sorry for that

[simla]

Happily, Tango doesn't have to buy Bioguard, as all Blis products contain K12 and are available at any NZ chemist.

[tango]

Happily, Tango doesn't have to buy Bioguard, as all Blis products contain K12 and are available at any NZ chemist.

Okay - i will try Blis and see if it helps with my throat! Can't hurt:)

[simla]

But at 10 -11 cents a share with a turnover less than a corner dairy, and no real distributable profit in the foreseeable future, it IS being valued as a growth company - but not widely so. Turnover in shares is pathetically small, and I'd say propped up by the Blis fan club. If a few of the collectors go back to bed for a while the price would quickly go back down.

I've been thinking about that and I'm not entirely sure that I agree.

In the coming 12 months, as I read the Blis statements, we could see:

some solid growth with existing manufacturers in the US
the addition of new manufacturers in the US
income from high volume Costco
sales in Canada
sales in parts of Asia
new manufacturers in Asia
hopefully some opening sales in Europe
launch of chewing gum, probably via several channels
initial launch of food products
possible launch of another probiotic
launch of M18 into broader markets
growth in NZ sales
some sort of progress in Australia


And the following 12 months could see:

growth in the chewing gum market
growth in the food market
launch of Nestle's first product
possible initial launch of toothpaste and beverage
growth in Europe
growth in Asia
more openings in Asia
continued growth in the US
possible launch in China
is India on the list?


If all of that came to pass - and it's a big list - could we really say the current price was not already grounded in the current trading position?

Feel free to disagree that this remarkable list is indeed the understood agenda as far as we know it from announcements, as I find it fairly unbelievably large myself.

[simla]

That was such a large list, I thought I better include some references.

Most of it was discussed in the last half year report http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Sept%2009%20Half%20Year%20Report.pdf . For the bits on China and Nestle, go back to the full year report http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Financial%20Reports/BLIS%20annual%20report%202009.pdf . Chewing gum here: http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=25529&zoneid=8 Toothpaste was last mentioned in the July 31 Press Release http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Press%20Releasel%20AGM%202009%20.pdf And I put a list of quotes on China in this post by me, http://sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=286347&postcount=934 The company has not mentioned opening in India, but India is mentioned obliquely from time to time, so I included it as a possible question. And, of course, most of it has been discussed and referenced in different parts of this forum. The launch of another possible probiotic was raised in the half year report ("Other revenue at $365K was primarily derived from an agreement concluded with a major global consumer products company. This agreement is subject to confidentiality and associated developments are expected to be ongoing over the next 18 months.") and may have meant something else entirely.

So, corrections always welcome, and check things for yourself as always, but it seems to me it was said. Some bits are obviously just logical conclusions by me, such as "more growth in the US" for the second 12 months.

[emearg]

CulturedCare.com has gone live. This is the probiotic gum folks for those of you not in the know.

Check em out here:
http://culturedcare.com/media/canadian-probiotics-%E2%80%9Cgo-viral%E2%80%9D-with-twitter-giveaway/

They have issued a press release announcing their new product, and the fact they are going to try to get word of mouth advertising working for them with the help of freebies.
Here it is:

Canadian Probiotics Try To “Go Viral” with Twitter Giveaway

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – December 20, 2009

VANCOUVER, B.C., CANADA – This January, Canadian consumers of natural health products will see two things they’ve never seen before. Canada’s first Probiotic Gum, AND a major health product Twitter giveaway.

CulturedCareTM educational director Lucretia Schanfarber thinks the timing is right for the Canadian natural health product industry to start leveraging social media marketing through sites like twitter and facebook.

“We’re going to try something the industry hasn’t done before. We’re giving away 1000 packages of our new Probiotic Gum on Twitter. Best case scenario is that we create a sizable word of mouth buzz for our product launch, and forge new channels for customer engagement that would be impossible through traditional methods.”

Worst case scenario?

“I guess the worst case scenario is that nobody notices or cares and that the campaign flops.”

But she’s quick to add, “Our probiotic gum is backed by science, has clear benefits, and is distributed by a reputable national brand. There’s a very smart, passionate natural health community online and we’re confident that as we connect with these folks our message and product will be well received… and shared.”

If the campaign succeeds, it will be a marketing milestone for an industry that is just beginning its entry into social media marketing.

The CulturedCareTM FREE GUM Twitter Giveaway begins January 7, 2010.
Details at www.FreeGum.ca

Find CulturedCare on Twitter: twitter.com/CulturedCare

[simla]

And if you poke about the face book page, you see, "US distribution will come a bit behind our Canadian launch", whatever that may mean.

It's been a good year for Blis watchers. A year ago, the half year report told of uninspiring revenues, and then the rights issue in Feb/Mar kept everyone on their toes too. But the news was still there throughout for those keeping an eye on the future.

Since then things have been coming together in a very impressive and satisfying way, thanks to a lot of hard work from all those working on Blis. Very many thanks indeed to our powerhouse CEO, Dr Barry Richardson, and to the Board, the marketing team, the scientific team, and all the operations staff at Blis, and to Frutarom, Imagenetix, Tablabs, Nature's Plus, Pharmabroker ... and frankly who knows who else these days, as the number of people involved with Blis just grows and grows. Little old Blis is quickly doing a good imitation of a multinational these days.

So, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to one and all. 2010 will be very interesting, I think. Thank you all for your posts and thoughts this year. Subsequent news hasn't yet shown our discussions to be too far off the ball. I've enjoyed everybody's ideas and everyone's company.

[emearg]

So, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to one and all. 2010 will be very interesting, I think. Thank you all for your posts and thoughts this year. Subsequent news hasn't yet shown our discussions to be too far off the ball. I've enjoyed everybody's ideas and everyone's company.

Ditto.....

[Cannibal]

Great news about the gum in Canada - ta for the excellent research again.

A browse of their site shows that it is available at top flight outlets all over the country already. Montreal has 40 outlets including GMC, Carrefour etc. Similar results for other large cities.

http://culturedcare.com/find-a-retailer/

The stars are aligning for Blis after all these years.

Have a great break everyone!

[tango]

Great news on the gum

I've bought Throat Guard daily and am trialing it for my throat. Will report back later

[emearg]

But at 10 -11 cents a share with a turnover less than a corner dairy...

The corner dairy comment/comparison is silly as a dairy has a very limited geographical target market and it is not likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, or the year after.

On the other hand Blis is moving into more and more countries, and more and more markets, and it does look very likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, and the year after.

I thought I would look back on the global availability of Blis products (excluding the Halitosis products that are pretty specialised and have been available in Aussi and the States for a few years now)

Up until the end of 2008 there were products in NZ. Population 4.3 million ( <0.1% of world population)

Then late in 2008 Ireland was added. Population 4.5 million ( <0.1% of world population)

North America joined in on the act around the same time. Population 308 million ( 4.5% of world population)

In mid to late 2009 Japan joined the game. Population 128 million ( 1.88% of world population)

In January 2010 Canada gets its gum. Population 34 million ( 0.5% of world population)

From less than a 10th of a percent of the world population to around 7% in a year is pretty good progress I reckon.

[fungus pudding]

The corner dairy comment/comparison is silly as a dairy has a very limited geographical target market and it is not likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, or the year after.

On the other hand Blis is moving into more and more countries, and more and more markets, and it does look very likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, and the year after.



And what must the revenue reach to produce sufficient profit to pay 1 cent per share dividend? IOW what revenue is required to make shares worth their current price?

[simla]

I'll have a guess, Fungus Pudding. I think maybe they might have to reach $3m revenue to make the first $1m profit. They seem to have standing costs of $1.3 to $1.5m, and there is obviously cost of manufacture to pay on any increased sales as well. So, without knowing the cost structure, I would hazard the total guess that $3m sales might produce the first $1m profit. Which is not exactly 1c per share, but neither is the current share price exactly 1c per share.

However, having said that, I would expect that profit would build quite quickly after that, because the standing costs only need to be covered once. With revenue over $1m this last half, revenue of at least $2m plus seems pretty likely for the full year, doesn't it? And that was with the market size of last half period. That was before the Costco market opened, and with Asia opening more, and more manufacturers in the US, and Canada and gum adding in, and M18 hitting the broader market soon (plus it being northern winter this half) - all starting this half we're told.

Which is why I think it perfectly possible that current turnover already justifies the current price, and things will grow from there fairly quickly. All just a guess though. As always with Blis, only time will tell.

[brucea]

Thank you Simla for your upbeat response to the less than positive comments that have been made on this post. You can call me a "Blis fan" if you like, but I think we should be supporting a NZ company that has such an innovative product and not belittling it. I have stuck with my Blis shares because I believe in their product, otherwise I would have baled out yonks ago. Merry Xmas to all and please excuse me for ending with this quote ""Every person has the power to make others happy. Some do it simply by entering a room -- others by leaving the room. Some individuals leave trails of gloom; others, trails of joy. Some leave trails of hate and bitterness; others, trails of love and harmony. Some leave trails of cynicism and pessimism; others trails of faith and optimism. Some leave trails of criticism and resignation; others trails of gratitude and hope. What kind of trails do you leave?" ~ William Arthur Ward

[emearg]

I have been thinking 4 million to achieve 1 million in profit. I have taken into account increased future costs, as Barry has signalled greater investment once positive cash flow is achieved. This will involve more product development, and I am guessing a greater regulatory spend.

Personally I would be happy for them to make only a small profit for the next few years IF they are spending bigger dollars on making the business grow.

I would rather the pie got big and then I had a piece than nibbling away on a tart for the next few years.

But then again I'm not hoping for a dividend from the ordinary shares any time soon. That is why I have been buying more preference shares lately. Maybe that skews my thinking?

Will 2010 be the year Blis gets rid of its penny dreadful status?

Or will Blis fail like BotryZen and Certified Organics to name just two that had similar beginnings?

It is interesting times...

[simla]

Thanks Brucea, but my optimism on Blis is just because that's how I see the facts. My quote might be: "The pessimist tells you how bad the wind is, the optimist tells you it will get better, and the realist just adjusts his sails." I'm probably more of a realist at heart than anything else. I'm pretty optimistic on Blis's future, but I'm keeping a very careful eye on the world economic forecast. Less optimism there!

Interesting point about deliberately increased investment in expansion, Emearg. Could be. They have been talking positive cash flow as the highest priority for a while now, though. There has been an awful lot of investment anyway, so I don't see that it has to threaten future growth.

So, Emearg and I have had a guess, Fungus Pudding. Care to have a stab yourself on revenue size and when it might happen? The next half year results should tell us a lot, as shareholders currently have almost no idea of the current rate of sales growth.

[Chippie]

I will have to stick with my previous guess below. Sales could be anything but we know it will be a huge increase on anything previoulsy. I will stick with a $500k full year profit (minimum) and a share price closer to 40 cents (with a lot of future growth to be factored in) than the 11 cents that it is now.


Okay Simla, I will have a crack at the half year figures

2008 figures
Total Revenue $1.1M
Sales 6 months = $158K
Sales 2nd 6 months = $450K
"other" Revenue = $539K
Deficit = $487K

2009 half year (my guess)
Sales = $600K
Other Revenue = $250K
Profit = $50K

On the news release of BLT half year result the share price will go to 18 cents.

The full year profit in 2010 will explode to $500K and the share price goes to 40 cents on a P/E ratio of 12 (or is that just wishful thinking?). At this point we all pat ourselves on the back for buying lots of shares at 4 cents and we have a share holder meeting in Rarotonga 

[emearg]

I'm pretty optimistic on Blis's future, but I'm keeping a very careful eye on the world economic forecast. Less optimism there!

Interesting how successful 2009 was for Blis despite the global financial turmoil.


Interesting point about deliberately increased investment in expansion, Emearg. Could be. They have been talking positive cash flow as the highest priority for a while now, though. There has been an awful lot of investment anyway, so I don't see that it has to threaten future growth.

The AGM presentation stated:
"When BLIS achieves positive cash flow we will need to return to undertake more work on strategic developments to ensure the future product pipeline"

I based the first part of my comment on that. I don't see them making huge profits in the next year or two as I think they will make sure they stay in the black (once they get there), but invest excess cash back into the business.

It is good to think that there is not only room for global and market expansion of the existing probiotics, but potentially more probiotics. Q24 seems pretty likely to be next but what else? And who knows how many more?

[Steve]

Will 2010 be the year Blis gets rid of its penny dreadful status?

Or will Blis fail like BotryZen and Certified Organics to name just two that had similar beginnings?

It is interesting times...

The problem with BOZ was that even when it produced at full capacity, there wasn't enough volume to generate enough sales to cover costs/produce positive operating cashflow.

My understanding is that BLT has farmed out production, so shouldn't be subject to a similar constraint?

[fungus pudding]

Thanks Brucea, but my optimism on Blis is just because that's how I see the facts. My quote might be: "The pessimist tells you how bad the wind is, the optimist tells you it will get better, and the realist just adjusts his sails." I'm probably more of a realist at heart than anything else. I'm pretty optimistic on Blis's future, but I'm keeping a very careful eye on the world economic forecast. Less optimism there!

Interesting point about deliberately increased investment in expansion, Emearg. Could be. They have been talking positive cash flow as the highest priority for a while now, though. There has been an awful lot of investment anyway, so I don't see that it has to threaten future growth.

So, Emearg and I have had a guess, Fungus Pudding. Care to have a stab yourself on revenue size and when it might happen?


No sorry. I haven't got the faintest idea. That's why I asked.

[Cannibal]

I will have to stick with my previous guess below. Sales could be anything but we know it will be a huge increase on anything previoulsy. I will stick with a $500k full year profit (minimum) and a share price closer to 40 cents (with a lot of future growth to be factored in) than the 11 cents that it is now.

40 cents is a good number - one that I don't disagree with...

The latest Costco newsletter has just arrived in my in box - ~25 products featured including BioGuard - all good.

Here's a look at the Top 10 largest U.S. retailers and how they performed in 2009:

1. Walmart: $404.54 Billion
Earning nearly five times more than the second largest retailer, Walmart won't relinquish its position as the number one retailer anytime soon. Its every-day-value-based prices continue to win customers in search of a bargain, especially in tough times. The retail giant is focusing on global expansion, green initiatives and a store refresh program called Project Impact to ensure it stays on top of the retail heap with solid growth.

2. Kroger: $75.35 Billion
In a year when consumers were forced to trade down and cut discretionary purchases, Kroger benefited by providing must-have grocery staples for the household. As the operator of more than 3,550 stores nationwide, Kroger maintains its strong comp-store sales and solid growth through use of sophisticated customer segmentation analytics and offering competitive prices and private label products.

3. Costco: 71.42 Billion
As the largest membership discount warehouse operator in the U.S. Costco is well positioned to maintain and even grow market share in a recessionary economy. Store openings continue to rise and profits remain healthy for this steadily growing giant.

Lemme spell that out - US$71,420,000,000!!!!

Full list here - http://www.risnews.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=MultiPublishing&mod=PublishingTitles&mid=2E3DABA5396D4649BABC55BEADF2F8FD&tier=4&id=7AA7E9B218804F47BE51E12DA16D752A

[simla]

Is there a certain buzz in the air here? Are people waiting around for the share price to go up, by any chance?

Well, certainly we expect/hope things to be going pretty well by 2011: America, Asia, chewing gum, Nestle on the market probably, maybe China, maybe Europe, M18, toothpaste perhaps, chocolate milk drinks perhaps, ditto yoghurt perhaps. possibly another probiotic - all combined we hope with a growing marketing presence.

So logic would dictate that sometime this year the share price will have to move from where it is now to where it might be then. We have the results in May and in November, and who knows what news besides that.

But for myself, I'd far rather see the dividend stream start, if only at a trickle at first. High share prices that are not underpinned by any dividends may be a nerve racking situation for shareholders choosing between taking their profits with relief or holding on for what may be a long term situation.

It should certainly be an absorbing year to watch in any case.

[Steve]

Just thinking about how the conversion rate of preference shares to ordinary shares works...

From memory, there was a conversion rate that must fall between 25 - 100 ordinary shares for each $1 preference share (making the ord share price between 1c & 4c which was reasonable at the time of issue).

With the current shareprice say 12c, then the conversion ratio would be 25 ordinary shares for each preference share which equates to a preference shareprice of $2.80 which it is.

So if you expect the BLT shareprice to increase, would you not be better off to buy the preference shares and lock in some dividends until conversion?

Or am I missing something?

[emearg]

Hi Steve

We have had this discussion before.

Personally I think the answer is yes. Generally the preference shares are trading at a discount to the ordinaries. The discount becomes even greater when the dividend is taken into account. This dividend is guaranteed (via cash or shares (at what are now very very favourable terms))

Others are less convinced as they feel it may be possible a dividend will be paid on the ordinaries. This is certainly possible but not guaranteed. The amount paid may or may not make them a better option when compared with the preference shares.

It is a tough call and much will depend on your expectations of profits over the next two and a half years, and the potential for distributions to occur.

I don't expect a dividend for the next 18 months, but maybe they will start in what is the final year of the preference shares life?

I do recognise that Blis may decide to reward its long suffering shareholders with a dividend earlier than this. I would expect it to be small...more a token than anything.

So, do you choose a sure thing, or take a punt?

Personally I have bought preference shares over the past few months as they have been (ranked in order of importance to me):
1) Better priced (without even taking the div into shares)
2) Have been available in adequate numbers
3) They pay a small (not imputed) dividend (3% - 4% depending on my recent buy prices)
4) Rank higher should Blis go under
5) I had enough ordinaries and should they start paying a dividend I will benefit from that

It is a tricky one...

[emearg]

ihealthtube.com have posted four videos interviewing the Technical Health Manager of Frutarom USA, Jocelyn Mathern, M.S., R.D.

Oral Bacteria Blis K12
http://www.ihealthtube.com/aspx/viewvideo.aspx?v=279163bba4d54588

Blis K12 Research Explained
http://www.ihealthtube.com/aspx/viewvideo.aspx?v=abc0ce6d9141c5e9

Benefits of Blis K12
http://www.ihealthtube.com/aspx/viewvideo.aspx?v=83b3388f322c8cc2

What is Blis
http://www.ihealthtube.com/aspx/viewvideo.aspx?v=fac50624c9a048e6

[brucea]

Forgive me if the link below is old hat - it is so hard to keep up with the news on Blis K12 products hitting the internet stores in the States. I found it from emearg links in the previous post.
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

[svez01]

Firstly I would like to say hi to all on this thread. I spent a bit of time reading through the old posts and enjoyed the banter.


With the current shareprice say 12c, then the conversion ratio would be 25 ordinary shares for each preference share which equates to a preference shareprice of $2.80 which it is.

So if you expect the BLT shareprice to increase, would you not be better off to buy the preference shares and lock in some dividends until conversion?


Interestingly, BLT currently has today's biggest gain on the NZX (+7.14%) while BLTPA has the biggest loss (-6.67%)

The preference share price of $2.80 equates to a share price of 11.2c at a conversion ratio of 25.

The preference shares currently seem like good buying to me.

[spike]

Looking at the site it say BLIS K12 is a trademark and logo of Frutarom, Inc



Forgive me if the link below is old hat - it is so hard to keep up with the news on Blis K12 products hitting the internet stores in the States. I found it from emearg links in the previous post.
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

[emearg]

Forgive me if the link below is old hat - it is so hard to keep up with the news on Blis K12 products hitting the internet stores in the States. I found it from emearg links in the previous post.
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

No worries. Simla will remind us if this product has been mentioned before!

I will put my pride on the line (again) and say your post is the first we have heard of this product. Nicely found Brucea...

[emearg]

By my count, Nature's Plus have the following with Blis ingredients. I think the Adult's Dental Care is the only quite recent one?

K12:
Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
Source of Life® Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support

M18:
Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint

Including some K12 and/or M18:
Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tabs & Tablets
Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules

Other products that I can think of with Blis ingredients:

Imagenetix Bioguard
Solaray Oral Flora
VegLife Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene
Biogenesis Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
Epoca
KForce
Aktiv-k12

And, of course:

Blis Throat Guard Daily
Blis Throat Guard Boost
Blis Travel Guard
Blis Bio Restore
Blis Fresh Breath Kit
Blis Rapid Eze Gargle

I make that 21 products that we are aware of containing Blis ingredients. Errata welcome.

I think keeping this list up to date will be useful. So, I have added the Swanson Ultra Oral Probiotic. Are there any others that have come out in the last 6 weeks, or are missing from this list?

K12:
Natures Plus Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
Natures Plus Source of Life® Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
Swanson Ultra Oral Probiotic
Imagenetix Bioguard
Solaray Oral Flora
VegLife Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene
Biogenesis Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
Epoca
KForce
Aktiv-k12
Blis Throat Guard Daily
Blis Throat Guard Boost
Blis Travel Guard
Blis Bio Restore
Blis Fresh Breath Kit
Blis Rapid Eze Gargle

M18:
Natures Plus Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
Natures Plus Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint

Include K12 and/or M18:
Natures Plus Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tabs & Tablets
Natures Plus Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules

[simla]

The Swanson product seems to be so new it doesn't even show up on Google yet. Well found indeed. Alltheweb seems to have it dated 24 December.

It's sufficiently new that the link on the page is not spelled correctly. It is an interview with Blis's Grant Washington-Smith: http://www.swansonvitamins.com/health-library/products/oral-probiotic-blis-k12-immune-system-support.html "We hear from people who, based on prior seasonal experience, were planning for the worst. They use BLIS K12 and are so amazed when they remain healthy and actually feel great throughout these months that they write to us and explain their experience."

Swanson say of themselves: ""To handle the great influx of orders, manufacturing and mailing, SHP now employs 500 people."

It is very satisfying to see Blis building a web presence.

Interesting videos, Emearg.

[emearg]

Okay Simla, I will have a crack at the half year figures

2008 figures
Total Revenue $1.1M
Sales 6 months = $158K
Sales 2nd 6 months = $450K
"other" Revenue = $539K
Deficit = $487K

2009 half year (my guess)
Sales = $600K
Other Revenue = $250K
Profit = $50K

On the news release of BLT half year result the share price will go to 18 cents.

The full year profit in 2010 will explode to $500K and the share price goes to 40 cents on a P/E ratio of 12 (or is that just wishful thinking?). At this point we all pat ourselves on the back for buying lots of shares at 4 cents and we have a share holder meeting in Rarotonga 

Actually, a profit of 500K and a share price of 40 cents would equal a PE of 110.4, not 12.

And that is without taking the preference shares into consideration. They would take the combined PE to about 170.

That all seems a little ambitious...

[Chippie]

my understanding is that a P/E ratio is based on earnings (net Revenue) per share not net Profit.

So approx $4.5m net revenue revenue would be required for 40 cent share price with P/E of around 12? For this to be possible then I would need to raise my projected profit also.

Still I am not an accountant so happy to be corrected.

Who knows all a guess on a back on a napkin anyway.

[simla]

The question is, when do we reach the point at which all things are possible!

[Chippie]

The question is, when do we reach the point at which all things are possible!

If Barry is a good negotiator and we have profitable supply contracts then I would be amazed (or massively disappointed) if BLT is not turning a decent profit for the full year. If he is better than an average negotiator then I would be hoping for revenue in excess of $3m.

The half year report stated 7 products in North America. Simla's list currently stands at 22 products so this must be good news for BLT.

What we need to kick start the New Year is
1. The Costco Bioguard trial to be completed with the 50 store trial being increased to all 403 stores
2. M18/ Chewing Gum success
3. The NZ$ to weaken against the US $.

[Chippie]

The question is, when do we reach the point at which all things are possible!

If Barry is a good negotiator and we have profitable supply contracts then I would be amazed (or massively disappointed) if BLT is not turning a decent profit for the full year. If he is better than an average negotiator then I would be hoping for revenue in excess of $3m.

The half year report stated 7 products in North America. Simla's list currently stands at 22 products so this must be good news for BLT.

What we need to kick start the New Year is
1. The Costco Bioguard trial to be completed with the 50 store trial being increased to all 403 stores
2. M18/ Chewing Gum success
3. The NZ$ to weaken against the US $.

[emearg]

my understanding is that a P/E ratio is based on earnings (net Revenue) per share not net Profit.

So approx $4.5m net revenue revenue would be required for 40 cent share price with P/E of around 12? For this to be possible then I would need to raise my projected profit also.

Still I am not an accountant so happy to be corrected.

Who knows all a guess on a back on a napkin anyway.

I'm not sure you are right, but I'm not sure that I am right either!

Having had a look at the NZX pages for FPH and RBD and looked at their market cap, share price, profit and PE I seem to be on the right track?

Maybe somebody with more expertise can contribute here and put us on the right track?

[emearg]

The Swanson product seems to be so new it doesn't even show up on Google yet. Well found indeed. Alltheweb seems to have it dated 24 December.

I think all signs point to this being a brand new product that has only been out there for a few days.

I joined the Swanson mailing list and they have sent out a New Years email advertising three products. One is their K12 based product.

A web version of the email is available here:
http://www.swansonhealthnews.com/offers/INTE668/INTE668.html

[emearg]

If Barry is a good negotiator and we have profitable supply contracts then I would be amazed (or massively disappointed) if BLT is not turning a decent profit for the full year. If he is better than an average negotiator then I would be hoping for revenue in excess of $3m.

The half year report stated 7 products in North America. Simla's list currently stands at 22 products so this must be good news for BLT.

What we need to kick start the New Year is
1. The Costco Bioguard trial to be completed with the 50 store trial being increased to all 403 stores
2. M18/ Chewing Gum success
3. The NZ$ to weaken against the US $.

Care to wrap a number around "decent profit"?

$3m revenue is ambitious Chippie! That would be huge growth. It may well be possible if things continue to progress as well as they have in the past 12 months!

I note TechNZ have approved $26,438 for Blis towards a "Scoping study on the potential of BLIS K12 to treatment periodontal disease". The time frame is 6 (months I think?)
http://www.frst.govt.nz/files/user45/TechNZ_approvals_2009-10.pdf

One of the videos I posted about the other day mentioned there is growing research about its potential with periodontal disease.

If it is effective, then that would be very helpful with the marketing of any future toothpaste products.

Another potential product is floss me thinks...

[winner69]

I'm not sure you are right, but I'm not sure that I am right either!

Having had a look at the NZX pages for FPH and RBD and looked at their market cap, share price, profit and PE I seem to be on the right track?

Maybe somebody with more expertise can contribute here and put us on the right track?

PEs are based on NPAT - ie PE is Shareprice divided by NAPT (earnings) per share

So at a shareprice of 40 cents and a PE of 12 would require NPAT after tax of 3.3 cents per share (40/12) .... on 138 mill shares that about $4.5M profit after tax .... before allowing for the prefs

Valuing such thibgs as BLT is impossible ... how do you value aspirations/dreams etc

PE prob only meaningful for mature businesses but at least that gives you guys some idea of where they need to get to

[Chippie]

Care to wrap a number around "decent profit"?

$3m revenue is ambitious Chippie! That would be huge growth. It may well be possible if things continue to progress as well as they have in the past 12 months!

...

The first 6 months revenue this year was $1,078k.
- Since then the number of products in the market have tripled from 7 to 22.
- Since then we have seen the first real product push in the North American market. I think it is also the first time over their winter.
So I do not think doubling the first half revenue is too excessive. In fact we probably need to see this type of growth for BLT to become a successful company.

I have always made working assumptions of what kind of potential revenue could be achieved in the USA. Based on previous NZ sales of approx $400Kp/a and a population of 4M people. I calculate 10 cents of revenue per head of population has been achieved with fewer products and very little marketing.

USA population of >300M x 10 cents = $30m. Off course this is a bit rich considering you need the products and distribution need to be in place.

But that being said, Costco states they have 56m cardholders. So 56m x .10 = $5.6m which could be a reasonable working assumption. As you get into the detail you could debate that we are not comparing like with like but you could also argue US$ vs NZ$ and also the fact that BLT costs are significantly lower with Costco doing all the marketing.

But all that being said, it is not unreasonable to assume potential sales through Costco alone of $2M - $5.6M P/A is possible. So I really do hope the 40 store trial is successful.

This is perhaps more hope than science. But I do not see any other shares on the NZX with this much potential growth.

[Chippie]

Running through my notes I also noticed they have another 150 stores accross the several countires including the UK and Asia. So now I really do hope that the initial trial is successful!

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=83830&p=irol-homeprofile

Number of warehouses: 560(as of 09/18/09)

Areas of operation: 407 locations in 40 U.S. States & Puerto Rico;
77 locations in nine Canadian provinces;
21 locations in the United Kingdom;
6 locations in Taiwan;
7 locations in Korea;
9 locations in Japan;
1 location in Australia;
32 locations in 18 Mexican states

Membership Data (as of 8/30/09): 56.0 million cardholders
30.6 million households
21.5 million Gold Star
5.7 million Business
3.4 million Business add ons

Warehouse sizes: 73,000 to 205,000 square feet
(average 142,000 square feet)

Annual revenues
(FY09 - Ended 8/30/09): $71.4 billion

[fungus pudding]

PEs are based on NPAT - ie PE is Shareprice divided by NAPT (earnings) per share



Exactly. You cannot value any business on turnover. Profit is what counts.

[simla]

So, could Blis's revenues be growing well?

Let's first define three cases: (a) full year revenue less than $1.9m ie.second half revenue less than first half; (b) good solid growth, revenues of $2m to $3m ie second half revenue exceeds first half, considerable improvement on last year, probably profitable; and (c) vigorous growth, with revenues over $3m ie. second half revenue more than double first half, good maiden profit possible. Are those reasonable revenue ranges to consider? I don't know, but they were chosen in relation to the existing first half revenue.

Then let's ask what evidence we have either way. Looking at the last half year report, http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Sept%2009%20Half%20Year%20Report.pdf :

1. The company itself seemed very hopeful but understandably still unsure about short term profit in the last report:


"In general there is still plenty of opportunity in the successful execution of the North American business strategy as the company seeks to increase sales and achieve profitable operations."
"[Costco] and similar developments with other companies through Frutarom USA are very encouraging to BLIS and are an important factor in the company soon achieving profitable operations."
"The priority for the Company remains the attainment of profitability through a focus on the leverage of its intellectual property through the development of key international partnerships and the careful management of costs. We are extremely encouraged by the significant investments that third parties are making in development and marketing of products based on our proprietary ingredients."


2. The company seemed to have some high volume opportunities coming to market though:


"... the introduction of this product into giant US retailer, CostCo Wholesale Corporation. CostCo is the seventh largest retailer in the United States and the largest membership club store in the world. The plan for BLIS K12 BioGuard is to complete a 50 store sales trial in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Subject to a successful outcome, they will roll out the BLIS K12 BioGuard across all 403 US based stores in early 2010."
Again, "[Costco] and similar developments with other companies through Frutarom USA are very encouraging to BLIS and are an important factor in the company soon achieving profitable operations." Note: "similar developments".


3. More manufacturers are joining the party. Now wouldn't they all be asking, how are sales going? Then they would be unlikely to jump aboard unless there was a positive answer? (But are they looking to short term growth, or growth over two or three years or more?)


Nestle revenue "is expected to improve during the remainder of the financial year with the commencement of additional projects."
"It is anticipated that further products will soon be released in Japan and in other North Asian markets."
"North America ... top 50 dietary supplement manufactures (companies with revenue over US$40 million) as the major sales and marketing priority. To date all of these companies have been prospected and we are working through the sales cycle with a number of them."
"Success with the "early adopter" companies that have incorporated the BLIS K12 probiotic into their retail offerings, will continue to drive a number of other companies to BLIS K12, who traditionally take a "wait and see" approach to new ingredient innovations. In addition to this market momentum effect, there is the additional benefit from many of the "first to market" retail manufacturers who have made significant investments in consumer education and promotion which in turn builds brand awareness and loyalty."
"BLIS Technologies can report that there are 5 North American companies (with revenues above US$ 40 million per year) that that have launched one or more products containing a BLIS probiotic ingredient with an additional 3 companies expected to do the same before the end of the financial year (31 March 2010)."
Another "major global consumer products company" has signed up for development work, for what we do not know.


4. Plus there are moves to increase total market size:


"In conjunction with Frutarom, the Company is also developing other business opportunities identified in Europe, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, South East Asia and Australia, which it anticipates will generate initial sales in the current financial year."
"The Company expects to formally launch the BLIS M18 to the broader dietary supplements market early in 2010."
Not from that report, but we know chewing gum is coming to the market, http://culturedcare.com/ .


So, going from those quotes, case (a), with second half revenues less than first half, seems an unlikely outcome since there is so much going on, whereas (b) good solid growth seems more likely, doesn't it? For (c) vigorous growth, however, some high volume sales are required. To my mind, that would only seem possible, from the list of developments above anyway, via two possible sources. Firstly, if sales at Costco were going very well, volume could be high. Well, we cannot know that, but we might get a clue from whether the trial is extended to all stores soon (will we be told before May though?) or from Imagenetix's quarterly report due in several weeks. Or, secondly, high growth might be achieved if enough "solid growth" occurred in several places at once - from the combination of a growing list of new manufacturers and of growth with the existing manufacturers' markets and from opening in new countries. But, thirdly, vigorous growth could also be achieved from the combination of both of those, even if each was to a lesser degree.

If we thought good solid growth was full year revenue of over $2m, then it looks possible, since the first half was already $1m. But for vigorous growth giving at least $3m full year, then the answer surely is ... maybe. The growth from more countries, more manufacturers, more sales with existing manufacturers, and reasonable sales via Costco ... maybe that would add up to that.

Alas, all just guesses I'm afraid. We'll find out in May! Ideas anyone?

[neopoleII]

dont know about you lot,
but i rarely buy health products, or even look for health products on the internet.
i could also spectulate that most ordinary people dont either.
setting up an internet shop is cheap and easy, and internet advertising is also cheap.
to achieve market penitration you have to be in the real world......... that is tv or radio advertising................. bliss has ZERO penitration..................


one day......... bliss will make mainstream,
and when it does it will skyrocket........... unless it has ( like all NZ companies) been sold or taken over.
if bliss is to be an outstanding success, it will only be because the controlling shareholders havent sold out.

untill that day comes.............. i will hold to my huge holding
ps..
bought on ipo,
averaged down for the 9 years
would consider myself very lucky to break even......... for the simple fact that IF this company succedes it will be under new ownership before the original shareholders see a dime.

[emearg]

So, could Blis's revenues be growing well?

Let's first define three cases: (a) full year revenue less than $1.9m ie.second half revenue less than first half; (b) good solid growth, revenues of $2m to $3m ie second half revenue exceeds first half, considerable improvement on last year, probably profitable; and (c) vigorous growth, with revenues over $3m ie. second half revenue more than double first half, good maiden profit possible. Are those reasonable revenue ranges to consider? I don't know, but they were chosen in relation to the existing first half revenue.


Here is how I rate the three options likelihood:

a) 0%
b) 90%
c) 10%

Growth is continuing, but the increase required to achieve 2 million in revenue for the second half seems unlikely to me.

Remember that a fair bit of the first half revenue came from their newly announced deal with the "major global consumer company"

And if you recall the growth of accounts receivable in the first half was large. Two possibilities come to mind here:
1) Blis are slow to get paid and they have two or more months of revenue that had not been collected. Either they aren't chasing the money effectively, or their customers are slow to pay, or a combination of the two.
2) The growth in sales is very large and the money outstanding was the result of a very busy month.

Option 2 would be excellent, but the figures don't quite work in my opinion. I suspect it is a combination of the two options with the first being the dominant one. I say this having looked at the previous year's full year accounts receivable and this year's half figures.

Soooooo, sales that occur in the last month of two of this half will be written to the accounts receivable line and not the revenue line. Sales that occurred in the last month or two of the previous half will come through as revenue in this half. Those sales are likely to be less than are occurring now meaning the growth that is occurring month by month (so it seems anyway) won't translate into as great an increase in revenue as you might expect. Does what make sense?

In addition to this, new sales to some of the Asian countries may occur in the second half, but in some cases revenue won't be recorded in this financial year. It will also be written to the accounts receivable line.

One bit of good news is the Prairie Naturals will have produced enough gum to allow a Canada wide distribution to occur. That should flow through this half and be reasonably substantial?

With the M18 launch officially happening early in 2010 with any luck Frutarom will have bought a reasonable stock pile which will hopefully translate into revenue this half even if we don't see any/many new M18 products coming to the market.



...but we might get a clue from whether the trial is extended to all stores soon (will we be told before May though?) or from Imagenetix's quarterly report due in several weeks.

Simla, Jessica Rabbit who writes 'The Truth About BioGuard' blog has said she will tell me if and when the BioGuard product is launched nationally. Her father-in-law works at Imagenetix and apparently will be one of the first to find out.

[emearg]

dont know about you lot,
but i rarely buy health products, or even look for health products on the internet.
i could also spectulate that most ordinary people dont either.

I agree. It is a pretty small market.



setting up an internet shop is cheap and easy, and internet advertising is also cheap.
to achieve market penitration you have to be in the real world......... that is tv or radio advertising................. bliss has ZERO penitration..................


I think that TV and radio advertising are much more effective than internet advertising, but internet (web, email, facebook, twitter etc etc) is better than nothing. In fact much of it might be much more targeted (most are opt in, unlike radio and TV) so might be more effective than one might first think?

It seems that marketing has been outsourced as Blis don't have the muscle to do anything big.

In NZ there has been some print and radio advertising.

We know of TV advertising for BioGuard in the states. How big this campaign is is hard to know.

Thankfully the makers of most products containing Blis are much bigger than Blis itself. US 40 million plus revenue so they have a bit more muscle.

They are able to invest significant cash to make their products successful. Blis was never able to do this for their products.


one day......... bliss will make mainstream,

That may happen in NZ and Aussi soon. It may not. We don't know but the good news is that K12 can now be included in foods. That is mainstream aye? If a yoghurt product or something similar comes out that would be a big step.

In the USA GRASsa is being sought. That will allow inclusion in food.


untill that day comes.............. i will hold to my huge holding
ps..
bought on ipo,
averaged down for the 9 years
would consider myself very lucky to break even......... for the simple fact that IF this company succedes it will be under new ownership before the original shareholders see a dime.

The IPO was $1 aye? I can understand why you are so disappointed with the performance of your shares!

They have been a shocker!

But for those who bought at their lows just 6 months ago they have been a great performer. Looking forward I think they will continue to perform better than the market as a whole.

neopoleII, any thoughts on what will happen with Blis over the next 12 - 24 months?

Are you feeling more positive about the future given the performance in the last year or so, or do you think we are all dreaming?

[brucea]

Where have you guys been? - health products are big business - eg the herbal antidepressant St John's wort enjoys enormous world-wide sales (maybe boosted by long-suffering Blis shareholders!) and is now sold in supermarkets in NZ, although was relatively unknown a decade or so ago. Mouth wash and mints for fresh breath are big business too, yet are mainly ineffective, usually only disguising the symptoms rather than preventing malodour like K12 does. I think Blis is on the road to success now that other companies are marketing it through the power of the internet. I expect Blis shares will be in the range 20-22 cents by the end of 2010. I am keen to go to the next shareholders meeting in Dunedin, whenever it is.
Again, just to add how much I enjoy reading emearg, chippie and simla informative posts - well done.

[winner69]

Soooooo, sales that occur in the last month of two of this half will be written to the accounts receivable line and not the revenue line. Sales that occurred in the last month or two of the previous half will come through as revenue in this half.

emearg - sales made on credit are recorded as revenues at the time the sale is made. The amounts owing remain in receivables until paid.

Thus high receivables mentioned for H1 reflect 'high' revenues in the same period .... so yoor 2) is the correct view.

Do they sell a lot on extended terms? ... like pay when you sell sort of deal? Maybe the development work that is secret (that has been charged for) has yet been paid for?

[simla]

NeopoleII, "unless it has ( like all NZ companies) been sold or taken over" - yes, I hope NZers deserve to still own the company because we've had the gumption to hold on and take the rough with the smooth. Somewhere along the line, the objective in finance has become to only eat the sugar. Happily, most BLT owners have already shown they like to hold on, so you never know. I'm still hoping to hold on to the shares, and only take out the dividends. BLT should produce a good dividend stream I would have thought since its product is essentially a volume proposition. (I haven't ever seen anyone express an opinion on BLT's long term dividends?)

As to advertising though, I expect there is already non-internet advertising going on locally, but we cannot see it from a distance. If that is more effective, as you say, then the various manufacturers will already be working on that basis surely?

Emearg, I think I'm more optimistic than you on revenue - doesn't make me right though! I think Chippie has a point on the sheer potential of high volume outlets like Costco. And I think there is much power in the Blis strategy of pursuing very many outlets. I might put outcome (b) at 70% and outcome (c) at 30%. Don't forget also that it is the northern winter, when people would be at their most receptive to this sort of product.

And on share price, I'm more optimistic than you, Brucea. By the end of next year we will have had an entire year's trading from now, and it's looking like it could be a big year for the company. As you say, Brucea, the health supplements market is very big. The main question for Blis now would seem to be at what rate it can expand, and you would have to say that the signs are looking pretty good on that front.

[brucea]

I see there are a number of Vietnamese websites (with the .vn suffix) that carry info about Bioguard - most of them take ages (if ever) to load, although the following link worked OK http://216.240.151.24/product/detail/68485/bioguard-advanced-probiotic-protection-75-melt-tabs-exclusively-with-blis-k12.html
The product is sourced from the ImAgenetix in the States

[emearg]

emearg - sales made on credit are recorded as revenues at the time the sale is made. The amounts owing remain in receivables until paid.

Thus high receivables mentioned for H1 reflect 'high' revenues in the same period .... so yoor 2) is the correct view.

Do they sell a lot on extended terms? ... like pay when you sell sort of deal? Maybe the development work that is secret (that has been charged for) has yet been paid for?

Thanks for putting me right on that one Winner69.

We don't know what terms they have in place. Your suggestion about the development work makes sense. That may be paid in installments?

[winner69]

Thanks for putting me right on that one Winner69.

We don't know what terms they have in place. Your suggestion about the development work makes sense. That may be paid in installments?

One way of looking at receivables is how many months revenues are outstanding at any time .... in BLS case just on 3 months (receivables as %age of 12 months sales expressed in months) ..... 3 months as at March and 3 months as at September so situation hasn't changed much recently

[winner69]

......thought since its product is essentially a volume proposition.


Assume you are saying that once a certain level of critical mass has been reached then most of the additional revenues fall through to the bottom line

I don't think it is as simple as all that .... thinking that is often flawed

Hate to make the comparison but much of what you guys are saying recently mirrors that what has been said on the Wellington Drive thread over the years ..... and they have got revenues up to $30m but still burning cash

Hope BLT turns out better than WDT .... you guys sure are passionate

[simla]

Yes, BLT and WDT are surprisingly parallel developments in quite a few ways, which is quite fascinating. I keep an interested eye on WDT, but have never bought any shares myself so far.

Both have a very go-ahead view, both have done a lot of work to forge markets overseas, both are science based, and both are aware of the need to add to their product range.

And both are riding markets whose time has come.

There are one or two differences apparent, too.

Naturally any two companies will have different working capital positions at any given time: Blis's last half report http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Sept%2009%20Half%20Year%20Report.pdf , and for WDT, interim report June http://www.wdtl.com/pdf/WTB0104Jun09InterimReport_Released.pdf, November 6 update http://www.wdtl.com/pdf/WT6690ChairmanSpeechEGM_1.pdf, and a capital raising update on 23 November http://www.wdtl.com/pdf/WT6735NZX-capitalraisingresults.pdf

Blis appear to have their market largely to themselves so far. WDT reports in the June report, "Wellington is currently winning a substantial proportion of global high efficiency motor sales", which I understood to mean they have competitors in their base market.

Blis are deliberately joining up with Frutarom with their established world wide network of marketers. WDT are obviously out there successfully opening markets around the world too, but I haven't myself been able to get clear how WDT are tackling that issue.

Blis are selling into a mass consumer end market, whereas WDT's end market is semi-industrial/commercial it would seem.

WDT seem to have higher running costs than BLT, and they also seem to have greater revenue.

I am not clear myself what the relative size of their respective end markets are, nor what portion of those markets is needed long term to sustain each company's profits.

As usual, anyone interested in any of these observations should check them for themselves. Links are included above.

Despite those observations on similarities and differences, I couldn't possibly compare the two companies, and wouldn't attempt to say one was better than the other. WDT are forecasting profit in 2010 and I certainly hope they succeed. BLT don't forecast as a rule, and I hope they succeed too!

[simla]

By the way, winner69, we're probably passionate because we've all used the product and it really is good.

[emearg]

Assume you are saying that once a certain level of critical mass has been reached then most of the additional revenues fall through to the bottom line

I don't think it is as simple as all that .... thinking that is often flawed

Hate to make the comparison but much of what you guys are saying recently mirrors that what has been said on the Wellington Drive thread over the years ..... and they have got revenues up to $30m but still burning cash

Hope BLT turns out better than WDT .... you guys sure are passionate

I own both. I still hold some hope for WDT mainly because the directors keep sinking their money in and WDT hasn't run out of cash yet...

The major difference between WDT and BLT is the more WDT sells the bigger their loss, and the more BLT the smaller their loss.

This has been a constant trend with WDT. It has been very disappointing. They keep saying this will change but to date it hasn't.

BLT is a very different business, and the way it is being run is very different so while I take your point I don't think too many comparisons can be made.

BLT has outsourced just about everything. They have few staff. They don't require much capital. They can have a relatively small inventory. Shipping cost of the primary stock being sold (K12 ingredient) is low and they only have to send it to one customer (Frutarom). They are good at containing costs.

Unfortunately the opposite can be said of WDT on every one of these points.

Will most of the additional revenue fall through to the bottom line? The way the business is currently being run I think much of it will. I say this looking at their revenue/expense graphs. They suggest the margins are good considering their turnover is only a million in 6 months, and yet they were virtually able to cover all the expenses of the business (excluding the new financing costs).

If the business spends more on product development, regulatory work and/or marketing then obviously any future profits will be reduced.

Barry has signalled more will be spent of product development once positive cashflow is achieved.

I suspect they will also increase their spending on regulatory work, but this will be limited by the number of staff they have with the expertise to progress applications.

Once they can afford to I think they will increase the marketing of their own products in NZ.

All of this will stop BLT becoming a major cash cow for the next few years.

This is assuming any of what I think is correct...

What do you think?