BLT - Blis Technologies [Archive] - Page 6

simla

04-03-2010, 06:55 PM

I agree you could read this in many ways. But I still think it sounds fine. Perhaps you guys are worrying about that wonderful old cartoon, of a dirty old man writing to the soap company, "Your soap was so good the first time that I have used none other since." I don't think that is a justified reading here.

For a start, we understand the blogger has a connection with the company, so she would be unlikely to declare the trial was deemed a success without foundation. Further, we are told the product will remain on the website anyway, and will reappear next flu season. All of that is consistent with Costco being happy.

The nationwide rollout in early 2010 is indeed a question in the air, but has been for a while. On the other hand, we appear to have detected that it did indeed spread to other stores, so there was evidently some sort of rollout. Further, we might reasonably assume that the withdrawal at the end of winter on exactly the last Friday in March was a planned move, and not a response to sales levels. So, one fair reading of this surely is that the rollout got the go-ahead, but only proceeded on a limited basis in the time available. If so, then isn't logistical constraint the more likely problem? That could be a range of things, from busy factory(s) to snow blocking roads across the continent, to Costco being too busy to look at this product in time.

For this to be bad news really requires that the product did not sell well, doesn't it? But the information does not seem consistent with that, does it? They have not withdrawn the product early as far as we can tell, whereas they do seem to have extended it to other stores, and to have confirmed it will remain on the website and come back next winter.

We do not know how much weight to give to the Walmart and Walgreens comment, but presumably it would not have been made with no substance at all. We know Imagenetix sell into Walgreens already. Further, it would be consistent with Costco having exclusive access for a certain period, which is consistent with other developments with Blis. Indeed, hoping to sell into Walmart might be read as implying they have good sales data to make a case with.

I think the testing part of the announcement is that it will be largely withdrawn over the summer. However, the product is indeed pitched at colds and flu, so that is understandable. As I say, I have imagined that Blis intend to push other products over the northern summer, such as M18 and other product formats. They will have this seasonal problem every year, so presumably have long since thought on solutions.

Yes, this information is ambiguous, as third-party Blis information always seems to be. We'll presumably find out more in a few weeks.

simla

04-03-2010, 09:04 PM

I would point out that this information states that Bioguard has gone through a trial and is now evidently awarded a long term position in a huge US chain store, with very extensive mail-order support. If correct, that is a very satisfactory development surely.

simla

04-03-2010, 10:11 PM

emearg

05-03-2010, 10:14 PM

For a start, we understand the blogger has a connection with the company, so she would be unlikely to declare the trial was deemed a success without foundation.

She has an association with the makers of BioGuard not Costco. They will have different criteria for what constitutes success.

Further, we are told the product will remain on the website anyway, and will reappear next flu season. All of that is consistent with Costco being happy.

If I was to be terribly optimistic sure then I would say Costco aren't unhappy.

The nationwide rollout in early 2010 is indeed a question in the air, but has been for a while. On the other hand, we appear to have detected that it did indeed spread to other stores, so there was evidently some sort of rollout. Further, we might reasonably assume that the withdrawal at the end of winter on exactly the last Friday in March was a planned move, and not a response to sales levels. So, one fair reading of this surely is that the rollout got the go-ahead, but only proceeded on a limited basis in the time available. If so, then isn't logistical constraint the more likely problem? That could be a range of things, from busy factory(s) to snow blocking roads across the continent, to Costco being too busy to look at this product in time.

Wouldn't Blis have been aware of this? Based on their communications they weren't and yet they were working closely with them to make sure they were happy. Everything we have learn't so far indicates this wasn't planned.

Yes, this information is ambiguous, as third-party Blis information always seems to be. We'll presumably find out more in a few weeks.

I agree. Some clarity around this issue would be excellent.

emearg

05-03-2010, 10:24 PM

As to the share price, it is no secret that the market is pretty jumpy world wide. There may be short term bumps, and each has to decide if the growth potential exceeds any likely bumps in the world. We faced a pretty tough situation in mid to late 2008, and those of us who stayed the course are presumably happy so far. In fact, I came across a post then describing the share as a dog, but nevertheless kindly pointing out for the eternally hopeful that Frutarom had been signed up. That worked out pretty well. So far, Blis has always required us to hope that developments will pay off in time. We hope that this set of results may finally make that more concrete. It sure would be nice to finally cross the finishing line.

My comment yesterday was meant to be vaguely amusing. I won't be in too much of a panic when the price drops on less than a hundred bucks worth of trading!

Blis, thanks to Frutarom, which is of course a credit to Blis (Barry) is doing well and growing adequately. But the BioGuard/Costco is a step backwards any way you look at it (rose tinted glasses aside)

The result in May will please the market. There may even be a small profit. The share price will increase. I have no doubts about these three points.

Sorry to be raining on all the positivity...

simla

06-03-2010, 08:11 AM

Well, that nice chap has asked Jessica a pretty good question about the rollout, so that might help. As he seems in tune with our own enquiries, perhaps we'll be lucky and he'll also ask how real the Walmart and Walgreens openings are? He's bound to ask whether the product was popular anyway.

I still don't think we have to get too worried here. Remember that Blis is not advertised by anyone in NZ over summer either. And nobody is discussing the logistics of factory production. There are a lot of Blis products on the market now. We shareholders just want it to all roll out, but the company itself will obviously maximise utility if it can schedule large orders at offset times.

simla

06-03-2010, 04:36 PM

We don't often disagree on the meaning of information, Emearg. To clarify where I'm coming from: I'm not too worried about it disappearing over summer, because I don't believe people buy many cough drops etc over summer anyway.

The question for me is what this implies about sales over the winter. It will have been in stock for six months anyway (Oct-Mar). On the positive side: (1) Costco are apparently keeping it on, and (2) possibly the sales data is good enough to approach other outlets with. On the negative side: well, there's where I can't quite see the problem.

This event does not seem to me to imply that sales were poor. Neither does it imply that sales were good. It just seems like neutral information as far as sales goes, and we'll have to see what news we hear later. BLT sales are not generally broken down in great detail for us, so we may never know exactly how this went anyway.

Putting sales aside, as neutral information, this seems like it contains good news. It stays on at Costco, and there is room to think the other outlets are possible. The nationwide rollout remains a question, but I don't see it as disappointing that a product that did not even exist a few months ago has not rocked the nation in one winter. That Redchip snip on Imagenetix a while ago http://www.redchip.com/visibility/investor.asp?symbol=IAGX said, "IAGX is on track to expand its distribution of Celadrin to Costco from 200 to 400 warehouse stores nationwide". Well you have to double 50 twice before you even get to 200. It's a big ask to expect a nationwide rollout from scratch in a few months?

So that's why I see it as positive. I see it as neutral for sales information, and positive otherwise. That said, I totally accept that this information might be read many ways. Anyway, not trying to argue, just clarifying why I don't think it's just my sheer optimism talking here!

brucea

07-03-2010, 08:12 AM

Simla has a good point saying "I don't see it as disappointing that a product that did not even exist a few months ago has not rocked the nation in one winter". Many people are sceptical about new products and their claims - I think I wrote before how long it took St John's Wort to catch on with the general public, even though it was was a top seller in Germany. It took me a while for Blis K12 NZ products to win me over, but I now use it regularly - not just in the winter months, as I believe it has improved my health (and for the doubting Thomas's this was before I bought Blis shares). I think the number of products that are appearing with K12 or M8 in them is a sign that Blis has a significant future. The recent volatility is of little significance given the very low number of shares traded (was it just 650 on one day?). This suggests most shareholders are holding on....

emearg

08-03-2010, 07:24 PM

The bit that confuses me is that you chaps were searching the net and finding that BioGuard appeared to be spreading to more than the original fifty stores and you thought that was very good news. Now the product is being mothballed for six months in those stores and that is good news? I just don't see how both can be good news?

As I noted above this isn't the end of the world. It is a new product that is available on the web via Costco (and others) which is good. It may be back in six months which would also be good news.

I guess I am just expecting a little more balance and not expecting every single event to be painted as positive. That really would make this thread a fan club and I don't want to be a member. I just want to take part in informed and considered discussion.

Sorry if I am interrupting this incorrectly, or if I am just plain wrong.

Happy happy joy joy

Zito

08-03-2010, 08:54 PM

I popped into the local pharmacy to pick up something this afternoon and spotted Blis K12 Throat Guard Daily sitting behind the counter. So I asked the pharmacy assistant about it. She said that she had some at home and swore by it, said it really worked for her. As she knows me I have no reason to doubt her word was genuine. Anyway,I grabbed some, thought I'd give it a go - we have two school age children who are susceptible to colds and two pre-schoolers who get everything the older ones bring home.

I was impressed on three fronts: (1) the packaging was really eye-catching in silver and looks great; (2) it was prominently placed behind the counter so is sure to attract interest from punters; and (3) if the pharmacy assistant has some at home and believes in it she will be steering people towards the product and be positive about it.

A small plus to be sure but a plus nonetheless.

Disc: holding. Would be accumulating further at 10-11c if not fully invested.

simla

08-03-2010, 10:47 PM

I'm not quite sure how to explain that clearly, Emearg. You've probably noticed that I usually respond to things I'm not so happy about by not referring to them a lot. But I don't say positive things about things I'm not actually positive about.

My basic excitement about BLT has always been the maths. Applying that to the Bioguard situation, several points stand out.

Firstly, Blis is out there making pretty good progress on a large number of fronts now, so Bioguard is not a make or break situation, although we hope it will be a very useful result. Even as I sit here, the local chemist handout has an ad for Blis reading, "Need a throat lozenge that really works?". Over at CulturedCare there's a twitter from someone saying they had 5 pieces today because it tasted so great. Nature's Plus have just brought out even more products recently. Japan is open etc. Type in "+Blis K12" on Google and get heaps of real results. All we actually need from Bioguard, and all the other products, is for many of them to be at least okay. Well, Bioguard DOES seem to have at least joined the "at least okay" group with this news. No?

Secondly, I wasn't especially expecting a full nationwide rollout in a hurry, only good progress, which we probably got. To supply Costco nationwide would involve catering to the equivalent of 75 New Zealands in a very short timespan! What I definitely wanted to hear was that Costco did not reject the trial - which we have apparently heard - and that some progress was being made in expansion - which, again, we seem to have detected ourselves. Yes, I hadn't picked it would go off the shelves over summer, but neither was I expecting much in the way of sales over summer of a product specifically marketed for winter ailments. So, that wasn't a positive development from my point of view, but neither would I particularly expect it to change Bioguard annual sales by more than perhaps 20% or so, perhaps. Bioguard is apparently currently on sale in Oregon 3.5m, Washington 6.5m, Alaska .7m, Montana 1m, Utah 2.7m, Idaho 1.5m = 16m people. Could they really have added just 3 more states quickly, California 40m, Illinois 13m, or NY 20m? Yes, it would be great, but I wasn't relying on it. So, they do appear to have successfully opened in a fairly large market for the long term with this news, and shown some progress in expanding to more markets. No?

Thirdly, and most importantly, I have always seen the maths of Blis requiring some form of exponential growth. Einstein is said to have described compound interest as the most powerful force in the universe. It is far more important to me that the compounding is happening than whether it is fast or slow. Slow compounding will still produce vastly greater results than no compounding. So I attach far more importance to the yes/no idea that the product will be in the market long term, where is can grow market size, than to whether it is compounding fast enough just now. Well, this news is that Costco will apparently stock it long term. No?

And fourthly, as I have said, I do not see that we can really interpret this as telling us how sales have gone. If they were going badly, Costco would simply have dropped the product, which we are told they are not doing. So the more likely interpretation of this news is that sales are either so-so or good, either of which is fine considering the size of that market. No?

So I am okay with this news because I judge it mathematically. The stand-out news to me was that Bioguard seems to have successfully got itself aboard a large, compounding escalator, and to me that stands head and shoulders above whether early results are 50% better than might have been expected at this stage - which, for all we know, they might have been anyway.

Emearg, I can't promise you that BLT is blasting off without a hitch, because neither you nor I know that. But I can tell you I am not trying to see everything with rose coloured glasses. If the news had been that Costco was going to dump the product, I would certainly have been concerned at what that implied. As it is, this seems a perfectly satisfactory position.

simla

09-03-2010, 07:41 AM

Bioguard has two points for us: a possible short and long term boost by selling into a high volume situation; and at last a chance to see a little about how the end consumer is liking it. With this news, we do not know how the first has done. With the second, we know it has done well enough to earn a long term spot at Costco. It's not a lot of news - we still have no idea how Bioguard is selling - but it is more than we have heard about how any of the other products are selling, so good the product was accepted.

simla

09-03-2010, 07:59 AM

I've tried to say quite clearly why I read this positively. Do you want to explain an alternative view? The main negative in here seems to be it being off the shelves in summer. I grant that I would prefer the alternative, but I do not think that outweighs the rest of the news: passed the trial, and may be available in other big outlets. I think we have to take the news in total, don't we? It seems logically difficult to rely on the no-summer bit, but discount all the rest?

simla

09-03-2010, 08:03 AM

Zito, I don't think that's small news. At this stage of the game, I think our biggest interest is in how this will sell to end consumers. All the business-to-business sales are great, but still need end consumers to like it. So it's great news that it sells well at the coal face.

simla

09-03-2010, 10:01 AM

I suppose I better make my periodic disclaimer that I am never advising that anyone should buy, sell, or trade BLT shares. That is for each to decide for themselves. Yes, obviously I own some myself.

I see this forum as an opportunity to discuss publicly available information, that we each may better decide on how sensible our own thoughts are. The current disagreement is a good example of why that is worth doing.

fungus pudding

09-03-2010, 10:12 AM

Question.

What is the normal time span for health related products to get off the ground? Apparantely some of the nutter quack type alternative products have made vast fortunes in a short time. I'm no expert but it seems to me that they either fly or fail quite rapidly, so why has Blis taken so long to get....well, nowhere really?

P.S. I'm not claiming Blis to be a quack product. Just threw that in as an example of the market.

Cannibal

09-03-2010, 10:25 AM

brucea

09-03-2010, 11:41 AM

The Cultured Care gum is getting lots of press lately.

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/Chewing%20delivers%20healthy%20dose%20bacteria/2653759/story.html

The story has gone national... 12 BIG PAPERS! Even the author, Pamela Fayerman, is quite shocked. Retailers might want to get their product display front and centre (grin).

http://www.facebook.com/CulturedCare.Probiotics?v=feed&story_fbid=384407485529#!/CulturedCare.Probiotics

Many thanks Cannibal for passing this link on!! I noted there is a further link on the page to http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=2654359 which has the same story. The studies done by the University of BC give credence to the claims about the effectiveness of Blis K12, so this is a significant promotion for Blis in Canada ...and of course elsewhere, given the power of the internet.

simla

09-03-2010, 03:32 PM

Hardly nowhere, FP. Revenue for 6 month to Sept 09 was $1m, compared to $329,000 a year before. Sept 08 was definitely a low point for Blis, with the old strategy bearing slim returns by then, but the growth since is from the new strategy.

The full year will be valuable info on whether that growth has been built on. If revenue for this half is less than that $1m - depending on the explanation, of course - then I guess I'll have to tone down my optimism. If it's over $2m, on the other hand, I'll have to up the pace.

Good to see CulturedCare getting wide coverage.

fungus pudding

09-03-2010, 04:43 PM

emearg

09-03-2010, 06:57 PM

That's just the point. I don't want to knock anyone's enthusiasm but as I've mentioned before, those figures sound more like the corner dairy.

Have you actually seen revenue figures for a corner dairy? Do you really think turn over is two million a year? I would be very surprised if it is more than half a million a year.

I don't know for sure (which is why I am interested to know if you do know for sure) but I base my challenge to your point on two things:
1) 15 years ago I worked at Woolworths Karori in Wellington. It was and still is the biggest supermarket in Karori and caters to a very large suburb and several surrounding suburbs. A busy week was $200k in turn over. Big shop, dozens of staff. So it would take five weeks to do a million. That was 10 million in turnover a year. Obviously inflation makes a difference but you probably see why I have my doubts.
2) I was looking in the Property Press recently and they had a number of business for sale. One was a large (floor space) Asian foods supplier with multiple staff. Their turn over was about $450k p/a. Perhaps that is why they are selling? What I did think at the time was how small the turnover was for the size of the shop, it's location and the number of people working there. There were several other businesses for sale where I looked at the details and was surprised by how small the turnover was. I kinda wondered why anybody would bother?

You being right or me being right doesn't really matter but the whole thing is pretty interesting in my opinion. Maybe I need to get out more?

What is also interesting is that Blis sold approximately half a million bucks worth of bagged bacteria. While the turnover is small compared to many other listed businesses it is significant progress for this little company...

emearg

09-03-2010, 07:00 PM

fungus pudding

09-03-2010, 07:27 PM

[QUOTE=emearg;296295]Have you actually seen revenue figures for a corner dairy? Do you really think turn over is two million a year? I would be very surprised if it is more than half a million a year.
QUOTE]

I didn't expect the figure to be taken so literally. Suffice to say there are small dairies that do turn over a million plus, althought there are plenty in the 500 - 750k bracket. Any less is barely survival level. No supermarket 'with dozens of staff' would survive on 10 million per annum these days.

emearg

09-03-2010, 07:30 PM

I note Blis has joined Twitter.

http://twitter.com/BlisTech

weasel

09-03-2010, 11:47 PM

I note Blis has joined Twitter.

http://twitter.com/BlisTech

Well someone has, but not necessarily connected to the company. The lack of indefinite articles and generally poor grammar makes it seem pretty unprofessional IMHO.

simla

10-03-2010, 08:46 AM

In Korea, here's an ad, closing Monday, for a sales/marketing person to work with Blis for a Korean firm. That would suggest South Korea (pop 50m) has definitely got approval now for K12?
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ko&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww3.scout.co.kr%2Freurl%2Fjobs%2Fh ighlight%2F%3Freurl%3D%252Fjobs%252Fall%252Fconten tview.asp%253Fid%253D1088682

That interview with GWS http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file.axd?file=2009%2F11%2FNew+Nutrition+-+Nov+2009+-+Rodney+Mason+quote.pdf said that Korea had a distribution agreement for Throat Guard (at least, presumably), so initial sales may flow fairly quickly from Korea now. There may even be a small initial order in this half year. Still local marketing to be done though, of course, and time to build a market.

emearg

12-03-2010, 08:02 PM

http://www.truebotanica.com/images/ProductPhotos/TrueDefenseKids_Flow_Chart.jpg

Meanwhile, another product for you guys to buy. True Defense For Kids TM. It seems to be a slightly different product format, so that's a development. Adult version in March. http://www.truebotanica.com/store/product/TDR1001/TrueDefenseforKids.aspx

Here is the second product for big people:
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm

I note the label is incorrect. I have emailed them letting them know.

Cannibal

12-03-2010, 09:44 PM

Nice finds again chaps. Thanks.
Not sure what the typo is - the hyphen?
This is a powerful comparison that would get my attention - http://www.mytruedefense.com/product-comparison.htm
Canada seems really keen on the new gum:

- I heard that Nira Arora was talking about CulturedCare Probiotic Gum on Vancouver's The Beat 94.5 this AM! Did you hear it?

and

- The Vancouver Sun story on CulturedCare Probiotic Gum is spreading like wildfire. At last count the following newspapers have printed the story...

Montreal Gazette
The Record, Sherbrooke, Quebec
Canwest News Service
The Daily News, Nanaimo
Edmonton Journal
Calgary Herald
Leader Post, Regina
Saskatoon Star Phoenix
Windsor Star
National Post
Vancouver Sun

And I sent this off to FaceBook -
March 9 at 4:49pm
Hi
I am curious as to how customers have reacted to the new probiotic gum. Is it rushing off the shelves or...

Cheers

http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-sf2p/hs274.snc3/23242_727146977_9849_q.jpg (http://www.facebook.com/stuart.hellis)
Stuart Hellis (http://www.facebook.com/stuart.hellis)March 10 at 2:20am Report (http://www.facebook.com/ajax/report.php?type=9&cid=1099033853067&rid=727146977&cid2=1&cid3=1&h=277737c639)
The supplier has been rushed off their feet yesterday.

emearg

12-03-2010, 10:29 PM

Not sure what the typo is - the hyphen?

The true defence products have Streptococcus Salivarius Blis K12 in them and yet the labels ( http://www.mytruedefense.com/ingredients.htm ) say they have Lactobacillius Salivarius BlisK 12.

Both errors need correcting...

simla

13-03-2010, 03:02 AM

Great news about being rushed off their feet. I wonder if they are in a position to respond for long without running out?

Meanwhile progress in Taiwan, too. Thinking it strange that we were not finding the new Asian products, I got more creative in searching. This one is called KSS66.

http://www.leonbio.com/images/200912/goods_img/1_G_1262052093803.jpg
http://www.leonbio.com/goods.php?id=2
http://www.leonbio.com/article.php?id=2
http://www.leonbio.com/article.php?id=10
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-TW&u=http://www.leonbio.com/article.php%3Fid%3D10
And here's the same K12 diagram we're seeing in Japan: http://www.leonbio.com/gallery.php?id=3

The image seems to have been there since last year, so I'm going to have to open a whole new search front to see what else we've been missing in Asia. Foreign languages make searching harder...

emearg

13-03-2010, 10:18 AM

Nicely found Simla! I hope you weren't up all night searching dodgy Asian websites?!!? ;-)

Apparently the product was added on the 29th of December 2009 so it seems that Google Alerts isn't going to help us find all new products which is a pity.

If you go to the following link you will note that free trials of KSS66 are available:
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.leonbio.com

If you dig a little deeper you will see the following:

Request a trial product
瑞旺生物科技股份有限公司/ 2010-01-25 Ruiwang Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. / 2010-01-25

歡迎光臨瑞旺生技網即日起凡至以下醫院診所看診,即可免費向櫃台索取KSS66口腔益菌胜肽試用包 Welcome to Ruiwang biotech network with immediate effect to the following hospitals and clinics who see the doctor, you can be obtained free of charge to the counter oral bacteria peptide KSS66 trial pack
*DR.WELLS連鎖牙醫直營店 * DR.WELLS chain dentist direct sales stores
*德威連鎖牙醫直營店 * Dulwich dentist direct sales stores chain
*台南新樓醫院牙醫部 * Tainan Hospital, Dental Department of the new building
*員林員生醫院牙醫部 * Yuanlin member of the Department of Health and Hospitals Dentists

Both the Tainan Hospital and Yuanlin are in Taiwan which helps to confirm the target market. Taiwan with its 23 million people isn't to be sneezed at.

There doesn't seem to be any difference between the green and pink versions other than the flavour? They are mint and blackcurrant. I must say I rather like the packaging. More so than some of the other products anyway...

Again Simla, nicely found and keep up the good work :-)

simla

13-03-2010, 11:55 AM

Well, Emearg, you'll laugh at why I persisted and found it. Following our discussions lately, I re-examined my optimism. The optimism didn't gel well with the apparent lack of new products in Asia. Was my optimism misplaced, or...

And yes, it was the middle of the night. You know how you sometimes wake up in the middle of the night with an AhHa moment. I suddenly woke up with a different search in my head for some odd reason, and sure enough found that product a few minutes later. If you go back to sleep at times like that, you never remember the idea again.

Yes, Taiwan does seem to be getting off the ground now. The Fresh Breath kit has been for sale there for a while (and one site has even cut the price now), but this manufactured product would seem to confirm that K12 has full regulatory status there now.

Cannibal

13-03-2010, 12:08 PM

The new Cultured Care gum is available online in Japan too - http://www.natvd.com/jp/online-shop/probiotics-and-digestives/cc5009.html
Impressive since it has only just come out in Canada...

emearg

13-03-2010, 03:35 PM

The new Cultured Care gum is available online in Japan too - http://www.natvd.com/jp/online-shop/probiotics-and-digestives/cc5009.html
Impressive since it has only just come out in Canada...

Natvd are based in Canada.

They started as a mail order business.

Their website has four language versions. English, Japanese, Taiwanese and one other.

So yes the gum is available over the web in Japan but it is also available anywhere else in the world over the web should you have a internet connection and a way to pay.

You can order some from little ole NZ and try it if you like? Their shipping rates are quite reasonable as well.

emearg

13-03-2010, 03:38 PM

I suddenly woke up with a different search in my head for some odd reason, and sure enough found that product a few minutes later. If you go back to sleep at times like that, you never remember the idea again.

Care to share the details of the search? I have tried finding things in Asia but found it rather frustrating and gave up.

emearg

13-03-2010, 03:45 PM

The Cultured Care gum is getting lots of press lately.

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/Chewing%20delivers%20healthy%20dose%20bacteria/2653759/story.html

The story has gone national... 12 BIG PAPERS! Even the author, Pamela Fayerman, is quite shocked. Retailers might want to get their product display front and centre (grin).

http://www.facebook.com/CulturedCare.Probiotics?v=feed&story_fbid=384407485529#!/CulturedCare.Probiotics

It is good to see the publicity continuing. According to their Facebook page site they are expecting CulturedCare Probiotic Gum to be featured on Urban Rush (a TV show) today.

I don't know how meaningful any of this exposure is in terms of sales but my theory is any positive exposure can't hurt.

Cannibal

13-03-2010, 04:57 PM

Care to share the details of the search? I have tried finding things in Asia but found it rather frustrating and gave up.

No idea how others do it but I type in www.google.jp (http://www.google.jp) for Japan, enter Blis K12 or similar and click 日本語のページを検索 which I assume is search Japan only. Repeat as necessary.
Full list of country codes here - http://www.web-l.com/country-codes/

Cannibal

13-03-2010, 05:54 PM

One from left field here -

Demo - Cultured Care Probiotic Gum

Type:Education -
Date:Saturday, March 13, 2010
Time:1:00pm - 4:00pm
Location:Nutrition House - Willowbrook
Street:123, 19705 Fraser Hwy.

Hmmm. It will be a short demo.

Pops gums in mouth - chews - thanks for coming...

http://www.facebook.com/?ref=logo#!/event.php?eid=363786094028&ref=nf

simla

13-03-2010, 06:24 PM

Care to share the details of the search? I have tried finding things in Asia but found it rather frustrating and gave up.

1. My AhHa moment came in realising that most languages cheerfully absorb words from other languages (Rowan Atkinson's famous complaint that the French don't even have a word for cul de sac), but that Chinese didn't seem to be very keen on that. So we've probably been assuming manufacturers would be at least including the Latin/English/Roman characters for "salivarius K12". So then I figured that there had to be Chinese words to say it instead, and I quickly found that product by then searching for translate.google.com's 唾液的K12 (salivarius k12)

2. From here I'm expecting to branch out by also recognising that trade names seem to be less emphasised in some of the products we're seeing now (as far as I could see, Blis Technology was only mentioned via one of the images of that new product for example.) So I thought I would try searching for words (and their translations) that appear in the literature of products we have already found, as the marketing people probably seed them to each other, as well as obvious phrases like "probiotic" "fresh breath" and "immune".

3. Also, unfortunately some of these sites don't seem to use unicode a lot (multi-language computer coding which lets you see things like chinese characters) and resort to using image files instead for some of the foreign language characters, which makes them untranslatable and unsearchable. However, I figure there is very likely an easy optical character recognition (OCR) thing somewhere which would get around that as easily as using the translate programs, but I haven't looked yet. This would then give more useful phrases to search on.

Sounds much harder than it is. Yes, it would be great if people started looking via this extra avenue. Many hands make light work.

(A short demo? Very witty, Cannibal. That address is in Vancouver, by the way.)

simla

15-03-2010, 05:53 PM

I can't see any other Asian products following any of those searches.

However, is this an interesting explanation perhaps? Epoca has been in Japan for maybe 6 months without other K12 products, but the last report told us there will be more in Japan. Nature's Plus had K12 for a few months before other products appeared. They seem to have M18 for a few months before others appear, but we are told others will get it soon. CulturedCare do not seem to have competition yet, but said it would be available in the US later I think. And Nature's Plus seems to be the only supplement with Blis available in Canada so far, despite other products surely being available for a free trade area?

If that was a pattern - if - then we might perhaps expect some more product(s) in Japan over the next few months, Taiwan's KSS66 would have the market to itself for a while yet, and Korea might have one product (or even Throat Guard?) for a while?

Just a possible interpretation of what we've seen?

Meanwhile, this Korean company definitely has Blis mentioned as a business partner: http://www.dalimpharm.co.kr/english1/info/info_06.asp They were the same company advertising for a sales/marketing person. They say of themselves, "Dalim is not a large firm in size but we possess a solid sales organization covering the entire nation ". And here's that sales organisation: http://www.dalimpharm.co.kr/english1/info/info_05.asp

So, in total, we've had interesting news over the last while:

Blis is now actively opening up in the US, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, Korea (probably), and NZ.
A chewing gum format has hit the stage, and looks promising.
Nature's Plus have launched a whole lot of products, and so have others.
Bioguard launched into a large chain store. We hear from the Bioguard blog that it has been accepted long term at Costco, but is being withdrawn from shelves over the summer and remaining on the website. It appeared to expand into some extra stores, but did not go nationwide that we can see. We do not know how sales went, but Imagenetix had good sales last quarter of something, and they were doing TV ads somewhere of Bioguard.
We hear BLT are very interested in food, from that article, and have hopes of reasonable revenue apparently.

Not bad.

neopoleII

15-03-2010, 07:35 PM

hey simla,
i truely believe that bliss is not going to make you rich.
but..... your growing skills in search and find on the world wide web is going to land you a very very rewarding career.
with the billions of pages on the web in multitude languages, you a able to find the latest stuff on a regular basis.
you'll be snapped up by google shortly to manage there search engine r and d department.

keep it up.
:)

emearg

15-03-2010, 08:40 PM

i truely believe that bliss is not going to make you rich.

Define rich?!!

The other variables are the purchase price, the sale price and the quantity bought.

An example would be if somebody bought $100,000 worth when they were 4 cents is probably feeling quite rich right now. Better still if they sunk a cool million in.

A cent increase would equal a big gain on paper. Alternatively a cent decrease would hurt more than some other shares losing a cent.

By the way, Blis only has one 's'.

Take it easy :-)

simla

15-03-2010, 09:48 PM

Thanks, neopoleII. It's actually been quite fun working out how to search in other languages. But I'm certainly not the only one finding things in searches - that's quite a team effort in this group. Between us all, we've found quite a collection of interesting stuff on the net.

fungus pudding

16-03-2010, 09:01 AM

Define rich?!!

The other variables are the purchase price, the sale price and the quantity bought.

An example would be if somebody bought $100,000 worth when they were 4 cents is probably feeling quite rich right now. Better still if they sunk a cool million in.

That's interesting. $100,000 at 4cents would give a paper profit of around $100,000 although I'm not sure how you could sell that quatity. But is that rich? Is a nillion dollars rich'? I don't think so. My idea of rich is someone who has a high income, say $100,000 + per annum from their own capital - or a net worth of over $2,000,000 allowing a fair chunk for necessary personal assets, home, car, etc. And that's the very minimum to call someone rich. And income from capital or investments is key - a high income earner isn't rich until they have accumulated enought to survive if the income stops.. Other views would be interesting.

simla

16-03-2010, 03:14 PM

There are only three main reasons for being rich, aren't there: retirement; safety; or kudos. (1) Paying for decades of retirement (due to age or sudden bad luck) is probably the most expensive need, but you have to wonder if working to an older age (or accepting relative poverty) won't become normal instead, since this is unsurprisingly proving very hard to pay for (and boring for many too?). (2) Having a backstop against the unexpected probably requires $10,000 for the optimist and $1m+ for the pessimist. (3) Just feeling you're awfully clever to have pulled it off probably has no limits.

Having an independent income is obviously good. But what's it going to be used for? One of the above perhaps? And you still have to be employed to do most of the interesting jobs in life - whether it's Prime Minister, CEO, teacher, soldier, nurse, money market dealer, truck driver, lawyer, antique specialist... They're all paid jobs.

Personally, I would simply describe rich as not being worried about your future. For some people that's money, for some it's family and friends, for some it's their faith, for some it's a willingness to adapt to whatever comes next, including poverty or ill health. For most, it's probably some combination of those. That's one view, anyway.

emearg

16-03-2010, 08:19 PM

For anybody who cares here is a link to Jack Klein & Associates (the marketing bods in the US)

http://jka-inc.com/companies.html

They make Blis M18 sound pretty good. They should be in marketing...

simla

17-03-2010, 04:04 PM

Perhaps they will being out M18 in NZ shortly?

Meanwhile, in Switzerland this time - unexpectedly. And obligingly in English, German and French, and USD or EUR.

http://www.lab-avenue.com/images/produktbild_bio-kick_throat_shield_daily_lutschtabletten.jpg

http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=37&language=en
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=37&language=de

Also, a stronger version of the product: http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=38&language=en

Bobby_Fischer

17-03-2010, 04:42 PM

Simla, it looks like an alternative branding for this site here: http://www.toothbleaching.ch/product_info.php?products_id=1013&language=en
which has been around for many years. I suspect there is something of a "grey-market" in Europe for BLIS products, based in Switzerland. The packaging in the picture you've posted doesn't look very professional does it? For a long time (and possibly still), similar packets (with different labeling) were sold on Ebay from a Switerland based user. Doubt Blis would encourage these sales as it could lead to their brand being tarnished if product quality is compromised.

Bobby_Fischer

17-03-2010, 04:48 PM

Well that didn't take long to find. Here you are: http://cgi.ebay.ch/BLIS-K12-LUTSCHTABL-80-MUNDGERUCH-KARIES-HALSSCHMERZEN-/200446683863

simla

17-03-2010, 05:12 PM

You may be right, Bobby. I have certainly seen these sorts of things before:

http://cgi.ebay.ch/BLIS-K12-80St-Kaugummi-gesundesZahnfleisch-Mundflora_W0QQitemZ180479810153QQcmdZViewItemQQptZ Zahnpflege?hash=item2a056f5a69
http://cgi.ebay.ch/Blis-K12-Throad-Guard_W0QQitemZ250596396461QQcmdZViewItemQQptZNahr ungserg%C3%A4nzungen_Wellness?hash=item3a58b58dad
http://www.toothbleaching.ch/product_info.php?products_id=1013&language=en

But I don't recall seeing this Bio-Kick before. Hard to say about the packaging, as it looks like it might be quite a physically small product, and you can't tell what is appropriate in other cultures always. I was drawn by the phrase, "each lozenges contains not less than one hundred million viable cells", which has been on all Blis products one way or another. Plus the existence of a dedicated web site area. Plus the "strong" product to match. Also, your link above has "Blis K12" as a label (which packet otherwise appears to be identical to the Bio-Kick) and mentions Blis Technologies as the manufacturer, but does not really seem to contain the tablets we get in our Blis products. Also, both only appeared in the last few days.

So, my instincts tell me this is indeed a new product launch. But I could not say for sure.

Bobby_Fischer

17-03-2010, 05:24 PM

They look like the "chewing gum" tablets from the original version of the bad breath kit. Don't think these are marketed in any current Blis product, and are quite possibly expired. The package looks very much like a re-sealable plastic bag! I doubt Blis would endorse any such packaging for their products.

simla

17-03-2010, 05:36 PM

Too, I am influenced by the last report saying, "other business opportunities identified in Europe ... which it anticipates will generate initial sales in the current financial year." Given the difficult regulations in Europe, it was puzzling how they would do that, but Switzerland seems a possible solution perhaps, since it is not in the EU?

Not sure you aren't being a bit harsh about the packaging! Don't they possibly look like those small breath mint packages? And, while the tablets do possibly resemble the old chewing gum, the contents are listed as, "Lozenges: Isomalt, Streptococcus Salivarius K12 (each lozenges contains not less than one hundred million viable cells), Tabletting Aids, Spermit Flavor."

Hard to say, and, of course, we may never hear for sure either way.

Bobby_Fischer

17-03-2010, 05:39 PM

Both toothbleaching.ch and lab-avenue.com domains are registered to the same "person", a "Walter Bernardi".

Bobby_Fischer

17-03-2010, 05:48 PM

Don't they possibly look like those small breath mint packages?

Nope. Not even a bit!

simla

17-03-2010, 06:27 PM

And on the same site, Bobby. Hard to say what this page proves either way: http://www.toothbleaching.ch/index.php?cPath=24

I'm still inclined to see this as a development.

emearg

17-03-2010, 08:00 PM

They look like the "chewing gum" tablets from the original version of the bad breath kit. Don't think these are marketed in any current Blis product, and are quite possibly expired.

Or they could be brand new? Shall we speculate? Ooopps, too late!

The package looks very much like a re-sealable plastic bag! I doubt Blis would endorse any such packaging for their products.

Wanna email Barry and ask?

emearg

17-03-2010, 08:04 PM

Not sure you aren't being a bit harsh about the packaging! Don't they possibly look like those small breath mint packages? And, while the tablets do possibly resemble the old chewing gum, the contents are listed as, "Lozenges: Isomalt, Streptococcus Salivarius K12 (each lozenges contains not less than one hundred million viable cells), Tabletting Aids, Spermit Flavor."

Not every country bothers with fancy wasteful packaging. If I had the choice I would rather buy these products in a plain brown paper bag than a boxed, plastic container!

These products are ThroatGuard Daily and ThroatGuard Boost under a different name. Even the ingredients match the ingredients on Throat Guard Daily.

I don't think we need to get too excited about these new products but as usual I can't imagine it hurting Blis's revenues.

Bobby_Fischer

17-03-2010, 08:33 PM

Wanna email Barry and ask?

I've emailed the Blis info. line. I will share then answer with you all when it arrives.

emearg

17-03-2010, 09:36 PM

Updated products list.

Shall I keep posting updates or is it all getting a bit much?

K12:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=49254&productnumber=49254&category=28

Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29949&productnumber=29949&category=12

Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

Imagenetix - Bioguard
http://bioguardhealth.com/

Solaray - Oral Flora
http://www.smartbomb.com/slr12698.html

VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-exec/product_id/57807/nm/Ear+Nose+and+Throat+Shield

LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Supplements/Item01300/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene.html

Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpages/pro-flora-oral-health/pro-flora-oral-health.html

Epoca
http://www.takachanmarket.com/products/detail.php?product_id=17325

Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
http://drsinatra.net/Products2.aspx?ProductID=BL12

True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™
http://www.truebotanica.com/store/product/TDR1001/TrueDefenseforKids.aspx

True Botanicas - True Defense for Adults
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm

Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
http://culturedcare.com/

KSS66
http://www.leonbio.com/goods.php?id=2

Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Daily)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=37&language=en

Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Boost)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=38&language=en

KForce

Aktiv-k12

Blis Throat Guard Daily
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Throat-Guard-Daily

Blis Throat Guard Boost
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Throat-Guard-Boost

Blis Travel Guard
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Travel-Guard

Blis Bio Restore
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Bio-Restore

Blis Fresh Breath Kit
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Fresh-Breath-Kit

Blis Rapid Eze Gargle
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Rapid-EZE-Gargle

M18:
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29948&productnumber=29948&category=12

Natures Plus - Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=4383&productnumber=4383&category=22

Includes K12 and M18:
Natures Plus - Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=1120

Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=5224&productnumber=5224&category=29

Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=5220&productnumber=5220&category=29

Natures Plus Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=4385

Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Him Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30002&productnumber=30002&category=11

Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Her Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30004&productnumber=30004&category=11

Natures Plus POWER TEEN® Immune Booster Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=30006&productNumber=30006&category=11

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30711&productnumber=30711&category=15

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Vcaps
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30716&productnumber=30716&category=15

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Mini-Tabs
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30714&productnumber=30714&category=15

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Energy Shake - Tropical Berry (available in two product formats (can or packet))
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=30748&productNumber=30748&category=15

simla

17-03-2010, 10:15 PM

I think the list is helpful, Emearg, and worth doing. Maybe condense the display a little by (1) hide the links, (2) sort by manufacturer, (3) add in the dates as a record from my post on page 79?

If you want to do that, you can merge the names and the links into one with this code: Sharetrader Forum (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz), as also explained on the BB Code link at the bottom of each of these forum pages.

Thus:

Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat (Feb 09) (http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=49254&productnumber=49254&category=28), Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear (Dec 08) (http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29949&productnumber=29949&category=12), ...

Is displayed:

Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat (Feb 09) (http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=49254&productnumber=49254&category=28), Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear (Dec 08) (http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29949&productnumber=29949&category=12), ...

Just a suggestion. (Sorry if it's work!)

brucea

17-03-2010, 11:19 PM

Thank you Emearg for the great job you do with this list - it would be helpful if you could identify the new products that are listed, as there are so many now that my brain cannot keep track them (all good news of course for Blis). I ordered more of the Natures Plus Adult's Dental Care Probiotic M18 lozenges tonight as some friends have taken some of my previous order to try for themselves.

Cannibal

18-03-2010, 08:30 AM

Great job Graeme. Keep it up please. It must be a lot of work but it saves me finding "new" products and posting them on here months after you found them. It is an impressive list.
When you add in the probably hundreds of retailers worldwide advertising all these products then it really is such a good story - no idea why the share price does not reflect it at the moment... I can't wait for the full year results.

weasel

18-03-2010, 12:16 PM

First of all, I want to say that you guys are doing an excellent job. I think the reason that the share price is not reflecting it, is the fact that blis only receives revenue of a few cents for every blis product sold. This reality is something I first heard from the horse's mouth at their AGM 7-8 years ago - the AGM at which they demonstrated chewing gum for the first time. The product really needs to become ubiquitous before we're going to be making money.

simla

18-03-2010, 02:38 PM

Not entirely sure about that, Weasel. Bobby found this article http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file.axd?file=2009%2F11%2FNew+Nutrition+-+Nov+2009+-+Rodney+Mason+quote.pdf which said "a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt", and also, "increase turnover ... to as much as NZ$3 million ... in the current [financial year]." "Per lozenge" changes the maths somewhat, maybe?

Yes, the strategy obviously is to go for large penetration of markets, but maybe they're getting there anyway? There's a lot of products out there already.

Bobby_Fischer

18-03-2010, 04:35 PM

emearg

18-03-2010, 10:23 PM

Ok, thanks for the positive responses. I will keep doing it, and at some point will update like Simla suggests. That may not happen straight away, but I will do it when the mood takes me.

I note the GRAS site has been updated in the last day or so with another six notices. Blis isn't one of them.

emearg

18-03-2010, 10:51 PM

I think your list is a useful tool Graeme. At least once it has saved me from declaring "a find", only to discover it was't. It's quite amazing how fast he product list has grown over the last 6 months.

Yeah the list has grown very quickly. But much of the growth has been from one manufacturer...Natures Plus.

It is great to see so many products come from them but the uptake from others has been less inspiring. Why is that one must wonder?

Changing the subject completely, the Nestle clinical trials should be finishing this month. Positive news from that would be excellent. Did you know that approximately 3.5 billion US dollars are spent annually in the US on antibiotic treatment of acute otis media? Prevention is always better than a cure. Hard to know how significant Nestle will be for Blis, but it seems like it could make everything else look like small beer.

weasel

19-03-2010, 12:02 AM

Not entirely sure about that, Weasel. Bobby found this article http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file.axd?file=2009%2F11%2FNew+Nutrition+-+Nov+2009+-+Rodney+Mason+quote.pdf which said "a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt", and also, "increase turnover ... to as much as NZ$3 million ... in the current [financial year]." "Per lozenge" changes the maths somewhat, maybe?
.
Maybe changes the maths, but what does the sentence mean - where is the 4c going to? Blis or to the distributor? I'm not sure. Look forward to the results though..

emearg

19-03-2010, 07:59 PM

Maybe changes the maths, but what does the sentence mean - where is the 4c going to? Blis or to the distributor? I'm not sure. Look forward to the results though..

It means it gets shared between Frutatrom and Blis. What the split is we can only specualate.

Cannibal

20-03-2010, 01:04 AM

It means it gets shared between Frutatrom and Blis. What the split is we can only specualate.

The other issue is margin and they say about K12, "High margin ingredient" here - http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Presentations/BLIS%20Technologies%20Presentation%20March%2009.pd f

emearg

21-03-2010, 08:36 PM

For anybody interested in stocking up for winter Radius Pharmacy have Blis Throat Guard Daily on special starting tomorrow. $14.99. Valid until the 18th April.

Cannibal

24-03-2010, 08:34 AM

Every little thing helps...

CulturedCare Probiotics (http://www.facebook.com/CulturedCare.Probiotics?ref=mf) We've been nominated for the Canadian Health Food Association's "Spotlight Award For Innovation." THANK YOU to all our retail partners who nominated us (It means a lot)!
http://www.facebook.com/?ref=logo#!/CulturedCare.Probiotics?ref=mf

Cannibal

29-03-2010, 01:42 PM

New Announcement here - https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2475274

"The Company can report good progress is being made with business development in North America and in other market sectors consistent with its three year commercialisation strategy and will report further information to shareholders with the annual accounts."

Bobby_Fischer

29-03-2010, 03:25 PM

The issue of 1,000,000 new options at $1.00 a piece represents a further 6% dilution for holders of ordinary shares (at today's opening prices and following conversion of options to ordinary shares at 25:1), yet the SP rises - up 3% as I write. The extra value of this vote of confidence in the company.

How far through the 3 year strategic plan are they?

simla

29-03-2010, 04:18 PM

The "3 year strategy" is a little ambiguous, as each annual report mentions the board has to look to a 3 year strategy each year. However, perhaps this refers to this in the 2008 annual report, "The implementation and execution of the new business strategy announced in 2007 has been the focus of the company over the past 12 months. The emphasis of this strategy is on the development of key business relationships and the establishment of partnerships with companies with substantial regional and global marketing reach."

Meanwhile, this time: "The Company can report good progress is being made...". Studiously unexciting in it's wording! However, they did not have to say anything at all, and BLT are very sparing with exchange announcements, so maybe that tiny phrase should be taken pretty positively? We'll see. The last half's results came out on the 12th of November, so perhaps the 12th of May this time?

simla

29-03-2010, 04:25 PM

"funds will assist the Company's implementation of its strategy and in particular the commercialisation of the Company's products in New Zealand and in key markets internationally."

"New Zealand"? Might that be for TV ads, perhaps? Or releasing M18 here? Yoghurt even? Interesting to consider.

emearg

29-03-2010, 08:38 PM

I'm pleased to see them take up their rights. The dilution I can handle for two reasons
1) Anybody willing to back Blis back in April last year deserves a good reward. This includes us. The fact they got an extra year to see how things are going is fair enough considering how significant their contribution was/is.
2) Blis now has another million in the bank to continue their expansion plans. Perhaps they will even accelerate them? More money to invest in regulatory approvals strikes me as a great thing assuming they have the technical resource to back up the extra spending.

"Good progress"? Yeah right would be one possible response but considering one of the directors has just coughed up another million bucks this statement has credibility.

So, for a change I see this latest news as a good thing :-)

What will happen in NZ? It is hard to say. A M18 product seems like a likely possibility. That said, such a product would make little contribution to the overall turnover company. Considering that M18 products have already been commercialised overseas I'm not sure we need the NZ range of Blis products as a test-bed anymore? I wonder if they are just a distraction? Perhaps Blis should licence their product range to another company who can rebrand them and put some marketing muscle behind them? It could be an exclusive deal? The more Blis outsources the better in my opinion. It keeps overheads down and allows Blis to focus on the science, gaining regulatory approvals, supporting their clients and marketing the ingredients internationally.

K12 making it's way into yoghurt in NZ (and Aussi ideally) would be excellent. Next time I am at the supermarket I must remember to check the labels.

It will be interesting to see the full year results and get a proper update from them.

Will revenue exceed two million to keep me happy?

Will they announce a maiden profit to keep Simla happy?

Cannibal

29-03-2010, 08:50 PM

Will revenue exceed two million to keep me happy? - It will - by at least a million.

Will they announce a maiden profit to keep Simla happy? - Given my statement above it is a given....

jonu

29-03-2010, 09:00 PM

Todays announcement is great news despite the dilution in shares.

Firstly it wasn't out of the blue.

Second, what greater vote of confidence could we get?

Third, the news of good progress in their normal (for Blis anyway) understated way bodes well too.

Edinburgh will be privy to knowledge we don't have due to their presence on the board.

All sounds very positive to me.

Bobby_Fischer

29-03-2010, 09:37 PM

Just in case it sounded like I was whining about the dilution, let me say that I wasn't - that would have been pretty churlish for the reasons Graeme gives - without Edinburgh its possible there wouldn't be a Blis Tech by now, certainly not one powering ahead as we seem to be. My point was that notwithstanding the dilutive effect of the extra capital, the SP rallied - a confident reaction - the market understands that Edinburgh have inside info. and their option uptake can only be read as a strong positive.

Revenue over $2 million = emearg happy.
Profit = Simla happy.
Dividend = Bobby happy.

I also like that we have a cornerstone shareholder that I believe will be loyal - I would hate to see Blis taken over by some foreign biotech with deep pockets before the real potential unfolds (decades away).

simla

29-03-2010, 09:48 PM

Ah, the D word! Well, each 0.1 cents per share would cost $138,000. You'd have thought a token dividend was hardly impossible, whether now or in November, if they have really got some decent turnover. Pretty hard for us to judge at this stage. Meanwhile, they are paying $400,000 a year in dividends anyway - to the prefs, 10% on $4m now.

emearg

29-03-2010, 10:03 PM

I didn't think you were whinging BF. But as this is a forum you are completely entitled to if that is how you feel! All opinions welcome!

The 400k in preference share dividends will almost certainly nuke the chance of the ordinary shares getting a dividend. Just my opinion but if I was a betting man...

The 400k in preference share dividends may well nuke the chance of a maiden profit. No bets from me on this but it is a possibility for sure.

brucea

29-03-2010, 10:17 PM

And what would make me happy if Blis were to report a profit? I said previously that I have been a continued supporter of Blis over the years because I believe in their products. Blis and their shareholders deserve to be finally rewarded for their patience ... and I would be right chuffed to see the naysayers, sneerers and knockers of this great little NZ company proved wrong!

Cannibal

30-03-2010, 08:21 AM

More from Stuff -

The $4m would largely go into product marketing and getting through regulatory hurdles for the sale of products overseas, Mr Richardson said.
Blis was working with Food Standards Australia and New Zealand and approval was already in place for the addition of its K12 oral health probiotic (which contains beneficial bacteria) into foods.
Blis was making progress on sales of around 20 oral health and immune-based products in the United States market, Mr Richardson said.
"We're on target to have all the products launched by the end of March."
He was also working with the Food and Drug Administration on the K12 product to enable it to become a "food ingredient provider" in the US.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3524974/Share-option-raises-extra-1m-for-Blis

simla

30-03-2010, 02:44 PM

That article on Stuff, said some interesting things, following an interview with the CEO apparently.

"Blis was working with Food Standards Australia and New Zealand and approval was already in place for the addition of its K12 oral health probiotic (which contains beneficial bacteria) into foods." Wow. Yoghurt into Australia and/or NZ is one thought that might come to mind. But who knows?

"Blis was making progress on sales of around 20 oral health and immune-based products in the United States market, Mr Richardson said...We're on target to have all the products launched by the end of March." Seems like maybe there is still something due out very soon maybe?

"Costco – the third largest retailer in the United States – was undertaking trial sales of its products in 50 stores in the Pacific West region, including Seattle, he added." Is the trial completed or not then?

Yes, Brucea, I agree that it is due for hard working Blis to get some recognition from its own country.

Bobby_Fischer

30-03-2010, 03:39 PM

Yes, simla, I thought it especially interesting that they mentioned the Costco trial again. If it was a complete fizzer, then it would be quietly forgotten. If Barry raised it himself then it's still in play, with the outcome is pending. Since we know it is now off the shelves (maybe we know, unofficially anyway, more than Barry does?), we should not have too long to wait.

simla

30-03-2010, 03:54 PM

As you say, Bobby, there was no need to raise the subject, so that could well be positive. Good point.

simla

30-03-2010, 06:53 PM

Hey, here's a new twist. This article says at the bottom, "Air New Zealand, Queensland Tourism, Blis Travelguard and Southern Cross Travel Insurance assisted the Knills, who are Auckland-based travel writers". http://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/travel/97659/sit-back-and-enjoy-ride

Or, "Dennis and Rosamund Knill were assisted by Air New Zealand, Holland America Line, Blis Travelguard and Southern Cross Travel Insurance." http://www.btob.co.nz/cms/news/2010/03/cruise_control.php

caesar

30-03-2010, 09:19 PM

jonu

31-03-2010, 11:35 AM

I can't get over the vagaries of the NZ market at the moment. BLT is on the verge of a maiden operating profit (being at times cashflow positive in the last 6 months and their progress since I think that is a given) and yet investors are still too cautious to put their toe in the water.
Serious analysis should be enough to put the chequered history out of the frame. You have to wonder at the ability of our fund managers.:confused:

Caeser I think their communication leaves something to be desired but at least they are consistent.

simla

31-03-2010, 11:44 AM

I think perhaps BLT give the impression of communicating less than they actually do, by the use of an economical writing style (which I quite like actually.) For example, yesterday's announcement said "good progress", and that's probably exactly what it meant. The full and half year reports have become very full and informative lately - 5 pages of discussion last time. And there have been announcements each time for Frutarom, for Edinburgh, for Costco, GRAS, M18 - all the big things to date. There's always more we would like to know, naturally.

winner69

31-03-2010, 12:01 PM

Cannibal

31-03-2010, 12:07 PM

Yep - vagaries is the word.

BLTPA up 20% today - BLT down 7.6%. Go figure...
Why pay $2.80 for BLTPA - that equates to 11.2 cents a share - when you can get the heads for 10 cents.
Their "Economical writing style" drives me potty. What does "good progress" mean? 100% of target, 200% of target. Both could be described as good.

End of rant - thanks for listening...

jonu

31-03-2010, 12:15 PM

Winner they might be a 13m company at the moment but its what they should be in 1,2,3 years time that should have them excited. I know fundies tend to be conservative, but taking a punt around the fringes on a no brainer should be on their radar.

simla

31-03-2010, 12:32 PM

Okay, it's the end of the financial year, so here's a teaser...

Say, for the purposes of conversation - and this is entirely hypothetical - that BLT announced a profit of half a million to a million dollars. What would that make the shares worth? All the following are very rounded figures for the sake of conversation. Corrections always welcome.

With 138m shares, half a million is around half a cent a share. With a PE of 15, the shares might value at 6 or 7 cents. With a PE of 25 (a growth stock), they might value at 12 or 13 cents.

Or with a profit of around a million dollars, that is getting closer to a cent a share. With a PE of 15, shares are worth maybe 15 cents. With a PE of 25, they might be getting on to 25 cents.

But wait. BLT announced a loss of around $200,000 last half. Is there any point in including that in the result, as the future comes up? Then a half million profit full year would be $700,000 second half. You MIGHT value it at a full year profit of $1.5m, or two profitable halves then, that is 2 times $700,000 - or 3 times the actual result! Now a profit of $1.5m might value out at 17 to 27 cents.

But wait again. BLT is clearly in a growth phase. Might they double their profit in the coming year based on the information received in the report? Might they then possibly run a profit of $3m in 12 months time? (yes, this is all utter speculation.) Then are the shares worth 30 to 60 cents now?

All based on a profit announcement of a half to a million dollars. Using different maths, the shares then might be worth 6 cents, 12 cents, 15 cents, 25 cents, 30 cents or 60 cents!!

Yes, you're saying "the shares are worth what someone will pay." Quite right. But nevertheless, what would a sane investor be willing to pay? After all, you pay your $100 now for bonds/deposits to pay you your $105 in a year's time. What might a sane person willingly pay now for a share that they thought might be worth over 50 cents in a years time based on information they might receive in a few weeks time? (Again, utter speculation.)

The biggest load of hypothetical twaddle you've read in a while? Quite possibly!

But one thing's for sure: if BLT announces a profit, suddenly there will be figures in the "PE" and "Gross Yield" columns of the share listings. What effect will that have on the share price? More practically, the above hypotheticals boil down to: what PE will the market assign BLT? And what would that mean for the share price if BLT announced a profit of less than half a million?

All of this demonstrates how maths makes it pretty hard to judge BLT's worth, even if we knew the next result. But a PE value WILL be maths. Ideas anyone?

Disclosure for those who can't see the obvious: I own BLT shares! All of the above is total speculation, do not rely on it for any purpose! I put it up just for discussion. What are the shares worth? Ideas?

Nigel

31-03-2010, 01:49 PM

Interesting scenarios Simla. When will the results be announced?

jonu

31-03-2010, 01:52 PM

Should be early May Nigel, going by previous-normally 5-6 weeks after cut-off.

winner69

31-03-2010, 02:31 PM

Simla - a picture is worth a 1000 words or something along those lines

Is this what you were saying -

simla

31-03-2010, 02:46 PM

Very clever, Winner69. But you forgot scenario zero where even a PE of 30 might make hard work of a quite small profit.

I honestly have no idea where the share price is headed. I was just making the point that we are waiting to hear the result, but have we any idea what the shares might be worth even after we HAVE heard?

Suggestions anyone?

Cannibal

31-03-2010, 04:35 PM

Nice speculation Simla... But it is not that simple. You need to factor in future directions too like GRAS and new products. They have not announced any for quite a while which is not like them.

emearg

31-03-2010, 07:56 PM

Definitely a vote of confidence from Edinburgh with its new investment. However I wonder if Edinburgh has been given any extra information that helped it making this decision, or did it just decide to invest based on all the information made available by Blis thus far, which is basically nil since the half year results came out in November last year - an information void of about 5 months. Im finding that Blis doesn't really bother with communication. What does everyone else think of its communications?

One of them is a director so you can count on him knowing a lot more than we do. He will have an eye on how sales/margin/profit (or loss) are tracking against the budget not to mention knowledge about GRAS progress, getting K12 into foods here an in Aussi, the Nestle clinical trials (if the results have come back) etc etc etc

Edinburgh voting with their cash is a great endorsement of progress IMHO

caesar

31-03-2010, 09:51 PM

Oh yeah good spotting.

Cannibal

01-04-2010, 05:28 PM

Edinburgh voting with their cash is a great endorsement of progress IMHO

As big a fan as I am of BLIS I find it hard to read too much into Edinburgh buying in. They paid $1M and the current worth is $2.8M. Easy money is my pick.

emearg

01-04-2010, 06:47 PM

As big a fan as I am of BLIS I find it hard to read too much into Edinburgh buying in. They paid $1M and the current worth is $2.8M. Easy money is my pick.

Yes I did consider the easy money element. Buying them was a no brainer unless they need to sell them. There is no way they will be able to off load another million preference share any time soon. The demand isn't there. Even at bargain prices this is true. So, would you invest a million bucks knowing you had pretty much no way of selling most of them and they would be worth next to nothing in the future? Even considering the dividend this would be a bad idea.

I thing this does support the view that Edinburgh thinks the value of the shares (preference and/or ordinaries) will increase much more over the coming years. Why do they think that? The only conclusion is that they DO believe Blis is going in the right direction, and I am sure this has to do with financials rather than vague words.

The full year announcement should be interesting IMHO

simla

01-04-2010, 08:48 PM

Don't forget the Dunedin factor, too. People are pretty public spirited in Dunedin. They were likely pleased to help the company move forward at a time when it is in a position to make constructive use of the money. The great thing about BLT is that it's a chance to profit personally while at the same time helping a worthwhile NZ company get ahead.

Yes, the full year announcement will certainly be interesting. Every previous result from Blis has been subject to particular circumstance, but this time we finally have two results in a row in relatively stable business conditions. At last we should gain some idea of how fast Blis can grow it's market. You're right, Emearg, that the preference dividends are a big hurdle for profit. My gut instinct is that they will have made it over that hurdle, but it's a big ask when compared with the September 2008 sales revenue of just $158,000 - only 18 months back.

Cannibal

07-04-2010, 04:00 PM

I honestly have no idea where the share price is headed. I was just making the point that we are waiting to hear the result, but have we any idea what the shares might be worth even after we HAVE heard?

Suggestions anyone?

Well - last week was the end of their financial year - it is just a matter of waiting for them to get it out to the market.

Dum de dum...

simla

08-04-2010, 06:06 PM

A little news though: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Imagenetix-Inc-to-Present-at-prnews-1063882191.html?x=0&.v=1 This was a talk by Imagenetix to analysts.

I don't think you need listen to it to hear more than I've mentioned below, as it was really just a general sales talk to analysts.

They didn't say Bioguard had sold like wildfire, but obviously were not unhappy with it either. Talked about Celadrin a lot more, but still plenty of time on Bioguard. Bioguard was accepted by Costco after the trial, but Costco put it into the "cold & flu" category, which is why it was taken off the shelves. Will be back in July/Aug probably, probably nation wide (I'm fairly sure he said that, but he may have been talking Celadrin at that point.) The firm itself has gained entry to Walmart, and will be taking product in there soon, but not clear if that is Bioguard too or just Celadrin. They are aiming for 6 top chains. They are concentrating on Celadrin and Bioguard for the present, although they have other unrelated developments in the wings. Celadrin made it into Costco via the same 50 store trial, then up to 200 stores, then nationwide next.

So, subject to my listening skills, the news was basically confirmatory of what we thought, and positive of the future from out point of view. Thank you to Jessica for her news to date in her blog, too, a nice lady. We still have no idea of sales volumes, of course.

Meanwhile, Supply Side East is on April 26-28. Will M18 be there perhaps? K12 and the K12 gum were both launched there in the past, I think.

brucea

09-04-2010, 12:54 PM

I have noted that BLT sp rise this morning - is this in anticipation of the end of year report which must be due soon?

fungus pudding

09-04-2010, 06:01 PM

I have noted that BLT sp rise this morning - is this in anticipation of the end of year report which must be due soon?

There's probably only one person in the whole planet who could answer that.

emearg

09-04-2010, 07:24 PM

I have noted that BLT sp rise this morning - is this in anticipation of the end of year report which must be due soon?

Who knows. It was only one small trade. If it was 400 grands worth I might think something was brewing but not when it is 4 grands worth.

I am anticipating a good end of year report so I'm not selling. You?

brucea

09-04-2010, 08:10 PM

Thanks Emearg - no, I am not planning to sell - in fact I have never sold any BLT shares. I am in for the long haul.

simla

10-04-2010, 09:53 AM

I am surprised at the non-reaction to the Bioguard snippet of a couple of days ago. It confirms what Jessica kindly told us about a month ago: that the trial was a success at Costco, that it would be withdrawn over the summer as a cold & flu product, would arrive back in next season (Jul/Aug we are now told, only 3 or 4 months away), and was looking to extend into other chains.

Some comments were made at the time of Jessica's news suggesting confidence in my judgment had taken something of a knock. I read the news as meaning that what we had been looking to happen had not happened, and instead this had happened. I interpreted this new version as basically good news anyway, the only bad news being that it was seemingly slower than we hoped, although we do not know the sales volumes which may have been pretty good for all we know. I have looked back at my comments then, and they seem a fair interpretation of what now indeed seems to be the case.

I look to this group for discussion of possible intepretations of publicly available information, that we may make better decisions as investors. As a result of discussions in the past, I am now in a situation with BLT that I am comfortable with, and I value that, thank you. I get the impression that others feel the same. My only claim to adding value to this group is that I am fairly good at research, and that I make fairly logical conclusions most of the time, often from fairly small data, which I almost always back up with references and explanation of my reasonings.

But the Bioguard launch was a discussion here that seemed to just stop in some acrimony when the news changed. As it remains a matter of some interest to the future, may I ask if anyone has any new discussion in light of the recent news on the subject?

simla

12-04-2010, 08:10 AM

Now, now. Don't all speak at once! Well, I'll take it as a sign that the ship of Blis continues to sail pretty true.

We use all this data anad logic to reassure ourselves through a pretty crucial year for the company, as is wise.

Yet, ironically, so many of the best rewards in life are only ever available if we can just bring ourselves to simply trust someone. So many rewards only come when we also take the risk of being hurt.

Cannibal

12-04-2010, 08:30 AM

Yet, ironically, so many of the best rewards in life are only ever available if we can just bring ourselves to simply trust someone. So many rewards only come when we also take the risk of being hurt.

Well that is all a bit Oprah Winfrey...

Not a lot to say that I have not already said about BLT. One month to go and the news will be all good - very good.

emearg

12-04-2010, 05:34 PM

Yet, ironically, so many of the best rewards in life are only ever available if we can just bring ourselves to simply trust someone. So many rewards only come when we also take the risk of being hurt.

You really do sound like you are a man in love Simla! Nothing wrong with that of course.

Re your post on Saturday. I don't have anything to say that I haven't already said.

I await the full year result. We will find out how right (or wrong) we are.

Happy happy joy joy :-)

Chippie

12-04-2010, 08:21 PM

Likewise I have nothing new to say.

Very happy with the progress and expect good news in the end of year report. If I had not bought so many last year at 4 cents I would be buying now at 11 cents.

simla

12-04-2010, 08:29 PM

Thanks, guys.

Oman

13-04-2010, 01:03 PM

I noticed the invitation on BLIS website re '...If you are a business and wish to stock the BLIS K12™ product range click here.' There's nothing to click so I contacted Pharmabroker with the intention of marketing BLIS locally.

The curt emailed reply was 'We sell to NZ pharmacies and selected health stores only. Thanks.'

So that's why I never see BLIS at the airport or in supermarkets. Phamabroker is gatekeeping the supply!

simla

14-04-2010, 09:19 AM

You sure have a lot of energy, Oman!

Nice to hear from you again. We seem to be hearing from a few voices not often heard from lately, which is good.

Are we all sensing the same thing: inaugural profit? Followed, further more we hope, by news that just keeps getting better from here on in?

People might care to divide the cost of goods sold by total sales in the 2009 results, which is a nice figure (assuming it's apples with apples), and also work out the costs before production for a possible baseline cost. Feed those figures back into revenues of $2m or higher, and there's potential for pleasant figures, even after pref dividends. Mind you, intellectual property/registration costs seem to be a bit of a wild card, as probably demonstrated by comparing those figures to the last half, plus there can always be other one-up costs.

Any other voices want to chip in their predictions or hopes before what may be the result we've waited a long time for?

fungus pudding

14-04-2010, 10:29 AM

Cannibal

14-04-2010, 10:40 AM

No mention of a corner dairy Fungus. Disappointing...

fungus pudding

14-04-2010, 10:46 AM

No mention of a corner dairy Fungus. Disappointing...

What do you want me to say about a corner dairy? Let me know and I'll say it ! :confused:

simla

14-04-2010, 01:34 PM

I'm not sure that we entirely disagree with each other, Fungus Pudding. All of our interests would be much reduced if there wasn't much growth still to follow the maiden profit, I'm sure!

simla

26-04-2010, 11:53 PM

I've been following the development of Blis like a hawk for about two years now, to protect my investment.

But no matter what the next results say, Blis hopefully faces a bright and secure future now. There will be a new crowd along to discuss it, and they won't be interested in all this old "will it/won't it" history of ours. It's time to let this old history start to fade away isn't it, and start a new thread?

Any volunteers to start a new BLT thread? I'm a Johnny-come-lately, so I don't feel it should be me. The new thread could still be called "BLT", probably.

simla

26-04-2010, 11:57 PM

What am I hoping we might see in the results, due perhaps in the next 2 or 3 weeks?

First and foremost, I am hoping for clear evidence of the permanence of BLT. Has it finished being a startup and become a trading operation with a certain future? The best evidence of that would be in positive cash flow, preferably for everything including capitalised expenses etc. Failing that, positive cash flow for operations would be good too. Positive cash flow for the last half would be good, and for the full year would be better. Failing positive cash flow, however, profit would also be good. Again full year would be better than half year.

Secondly, I hope to see evidence of what the growth potential might be. We might gain some insight into whether large revenues might come over a few years or over many years.

Only thirdly am I looking for a great profit. That would be great too, as both the first two points will have been well answered in that case. But the first two points will still be good news anyway without a big profit. But I'd certainly take a great profit!

Specific news that would be nice to hear: How did Bioguard go? How has Japan gone? How has CulturedCare gone? What is happening with Nestle? What marketing are end-customers experiencing? What is the reaction of end customers (and manufacturers and retailers)?

Plus, of course, we always hope for that unexpected news that is so often included in BLT releases, and is almost always good. I'm hoping there will be no bad news, obviously, too.

Cannibal

27-04-2010, 09:14 AM

A new thread might be called for - but only after the Annual Report is out IMO. Hopefully we will then have the facts to decide whether this is a start up still or a serious player in their field.

Interesting the lack of confidence on here recently. Quite a turnaround in attitude from 2-3 months ago, and that is reflected in the share price and the number of sellers on the stock market. Over 400,000 for sale at less than 12 cents this close to the announcement is interesting.

I am confident of a strong profit but it is any announcements around futures that really piques my interest. Nestle, yoghurt and future products in general, plus of course M18, which I think is the way of the future.

Not long now...

stanace

27-04-2010, 10:33 AM

5c per share

Cannibal

27-04-2010, 10:59 AM

5c per share

Laconic!

Is that the payout for the Preference Shares or your vaulation of the heads?

stanace

27-04-2010, 11:08 AM

Preference share payout, announced 10.03

simla

29-04-2010, 08:16 PM

Interesting the lack of confidence on here recently. Quite a turnaround in attitude from 2-3 months ago, and that is reflected in the share price and the number of sellers on the stock market.

Yes, it's strange, as the news on Blis has been good for some time now. I'm not sure it's just this group though, as NZ seems to have lost confidence generally lately. Did it start when they announced the changes to rental property maybe? That affected not only landlords, but knocked on to everyone with a house, via the property market. It's very hard to put your finger on.

emearg

29-04-2010, 08:44 PM

At least in a couple of months we will actually know how things have gone rather than just speculating (interesting as that is)

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts depending on the result. If full year revenue doubles should we expect a share price rise or fall? What if it triples? What if there is a loss or profit? Just what is the market expecting?

neopoleII

30-04-2010, 09:43 AM

the problem with blis products is that people try it and most go "ho hum"
the stuff works, but it doesnt seem to have the magic bullet effect as most people hope for,
so they dont buy it anymore.
so when its released into a huge market, yes, there are big sales, so we might doubling of revenues.
the question will be if those revenues are sustained into the future.
their only hope is the ingredience are put into foods or the m18 is added to mainstream toothpaste.
so expect a few speed wobbles with the sp in the near future.

simla

30-04-2010, 10:18 AM

Yes, a lot of people do say that NeopoleII. But a lot of people also become repeat users too, which is enough to sustain the current growth phase, I'd have thought. Certainly the stuff has changed winters in this house a lot - our cupboard is full of the usual winter products that have been sitting unneeded now for a couple of years or so. But yes, a major product like toothpaste or food would set a fire under things for sure.

simla

30-04-2010, 11:15 AM

To respond to Emearg's question on share price (I hope you're not suggesting our guesses are anything but totally accurate, Emearg ...):

As usual, all figures are estimates. Do your own maths. Corrections welcome.

The difficulty with this exact moment is that PE and revenue growth may fight each other mathematically on the share price in the short term. It would not represent any bad news for the company whatsoever, but the maths on them may be a little contradictory just now.

As for PE, a revenue of 2.5m possibly could produce a profit of 0.8m if Blis has fair cost of goods sold (utter guess), but at a PE of 15 that comes to a share price of about 9 cents (with 138m shares.) At revenue of 2m, that same maths might produce a profit of 0.5m, or 6 cents at a PE of 15. Revenue of 3m might produce profit of 1.1m, or 13 cents. At a PE of 30, though, those figures become 12 cents, 18 cents, and 26 cents. (These figures more or less assume pref divs are seen as post-profit, and that registration costs are not growing.) All those estimates of revenue or profit are obviously guesses!

On the other hand, such revenue growth might imply revenue of 5m or more in a year's time, which might produce profit of 2.5m which would give a share price of 27 cents at a PE of 15 (ie treble - not bad growth prospects), because larger revenue starts to neutralise fixed costs more, leading to higher profit growth initially. And that revenue growth doesn't particularly include any new developments, such as Asia expanding or Nestle coming to market or food sales or new product lines. (Neither does it include the complication of where to account for the pref dividends. Also there is the complication of how BLT revenue will go over the non-Northern-winter, although my guess is they have plenty of plans.)

Most likely the market will accommodate the struggle between PE maths and good revenue growth by having a high PE this time around if necessary (if the news look good.) A PE of 30, for example, would obviously turn that 9 cents into 18 cents. It also depends on whether the market is willing to (accurately in my opinion) see the pref dividends as post-profit rather than pre-profit. And this also depends on the market taking more notice of BLT now than they have up till recently!

The difficulty would be if revenue was 2m or less, OR the cost structure was higher than I've guessed here, in which case the net profit could be lowish (assuming there is one!). It would all depend on the actual news at the time, obviously, but second half revenue no higher than first half probably represents the biggest chance of unpredictable result, followed closely by the question of whether costs kept mounting.

So, mathematically, this particular result may be a bit of a singularity as far as share price goes. Which is why I'm instead looking for evidence that the company has reached permanent viability (very likely, surely) and to see what growth might be possible (I'm optimistic, but we cannot currently judge that from the info we have.)

All up, though, it is surely likely to be an excellent set of results for anybody with the slightest long-term outlook, but very hard to say what will happen to the share price in the short term. That said, a ripper set of results would obviously bypass all mathematical difficulties for the price.

So what will happen to the share price? Never mind the maths: yes, there is a chance it will fall, but most likely it will rise because of good news.

simla

30-04-2010, 11:29 AM

"Imagenetix Expands Celadrin(R) to Nation's Leading Retailer" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Imagenetix-Expands-CeladrinR-prnews-3677566320.html?x=0&.v=1

"...can purchase Celadrin® at the nation's #1 warehouse club, the nation's #1 drug store, and now, with this new distribution, in the nation's #1 retailer.". They don't name them, but presumably they mean Costco, Walgreens, and Walmart? "Celadrin® 30 second spots will run on networks like Arts & Entertainment, American Movie Channel, CNN, Food, Fox News, Hallmark, Home & Garden, Lifetime, Lifetime Movie, TBS, TNT, and USA."

No mention of Bioguard, just Celadrin. However, presumably they intend to try to leverage their relationships to take Bioguard with them sometime soon? Remember, Jessica told us "They're also trying to get it into Walmart and Walgreens." http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/2010/03/this-is-last-month.html

Silverlight

30-04-2010, 02:16 PM

BLIS Technologies Ltd Receives Major International Business Award

Friday 30th April, 2010

BLIS Technologies Ltd from Dunedin, New Zealand, a biotech company involved in the development of advanced probiotics for the oral cavity, is pleased to announce that it has received the prestigious 2010 Frost & Sullivan Global Entrepreneurial Company of the Year Award in Food and Beverage Ingredients.

Dr Barry Richardson, Chief Executive Officer of BLIS Technologies is delighted to receive this award. He said that it was gratifying to have independent recognition from such a global authority as Frost and Sullivan. He also indicated that this was a strong and solid endorsement of the changes that BLIS Technologies made in its company’s strategic direction back in 2007.

Frost & Sullivan is a highly respected and world leading global enterprise that operates in the areas of business research and consultancy. During 2010, Frost & Sullivan will be entering its 50th year in business as a global research organization. It has 1,800 analysts and consultants based around the world who continuously monitor more than 300 industries and 250,000 companies.

According to Frost and Sullivan, in order for them to select this year’s award recipient for Global Entrepreneurial Company of the Year, analysts from their Best Practices Research group used four criteria to benchmark the performance of BLIS Technologies Ltd against other challengers for the title.

The four performance areas include:
- Growth Strategy Excellence
- Growth Implementation Excellence
- Degree of Innovation with Products and Technologies
- Apt Identification and Response to Market Needs

Candidates for this award are chosen from around the world and BLIS Technologies outscored the other shortlisted companies in all four key performance areas.

In making this award, Frost and Sullivan noted that BLIS Technologies had addressed key industry challenges through concerted research and competent strategies despite an increasing challenging market and the potential competitive threats offered by industry giants such as Danisco, Chr Hansen, and DSM.

The Frost and Sullivan awards banquet was held in the United States on Thursday April 29th 2010.

Cannibal

30-04-2010, 02:23 PM

Excellent news!

So - that answers some of the questions posed recently...

- Growth Strategy Excellence
- Growth Implementation Excellence
- Degree of Innovation with Products and Technologies
- Apt Identification and Response to Market Needs

Ally that to this - According to a survey by ConsumerLab.com of 6,012 consumers in February 2010, probiotics were used by 30.4 percent of respondents, up from 25 percent last year. One-third of women in the survey used a probiotic. Usage has translated into rising sales. Packaged Facts reported sales of probiotic/prebiotic foods and beverages topped $15 billion in 2008, a 13 percent increase over 2007, and projects the market for functional foods and beverages addressing digestive health will top $22 billion in 2013, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12 percent between 2004 and 2013.

emearg

30-04-2010, 06:20 PM

As for PE, a revenue of 2.5m possibly could produce a profit of 0.8m if Blis has fair cost of goods sold (utter guess)

With all due respect, and with a large dash of humour my feedback would be that your statement is a bit long for a Tui bill board, but the sentiment is there ;-)

In my opinion after the pref dividends are taken into account we will be lucky to see more than a couple of hundred K in profit. But I would be happy with that! I don't mind being proven wrong here Simla, but...

Getting into profit would be very significant for how Blis is perceived by the masses. Right now it is just another Bio-Tech with a bright idea. Once it turns a profit the market will start to reevaluate it.

emearg

30-04-2010, 06:23 PM

Hard to see the award as anything but good news. Blis is obviously doing something right to stand out so strongly. Perhaps they are doing more than we know or give them credit for?

Or perhaps some of us (as holders of the shares) do give them credit and the masses aren't quite getting the picture?

Or perhaps both Simla and I have been drinking too much Tui to go with the new billboard? ;-)

Happy happy joy joy (and for those of you who DO actually think I'm drunk...I'm not!)

Chippie

30-04-2010, 06:37 PM

Or perhaps some of us (as holders of the shares) do give them credit and the masses aren't quite getting the picture?

I think this is closer the truth. I personally do not see much downside with BLT at the moment and heaps of upside. Great news today (although I wonder if they have access to information that the market does not).

brucea

30-04-2010, 06:44 PM

Hey guys, I was curious about Frost & Sullivan as I have never heard of this company; I googled and found the following blog which has quite unfavourable comments about the awards http://billanddave.wordpress.com/2007/06/03/frost-sullivan-award/ Maybe it was written by disgruntled employees, but nevertheless makes one think about the value of these awards.

brucea

30-04-2010, 06:45 PM

I forgot to add that I read that Frutarom had won a F & S category a year or so ago - maybe that is the connection ....

brucea

30-04-2010, 06:51 PM

And this http://www.bio-pro.de/magazin/wirtschaft/archiv_2008/index.html?lang=en&artikelid=/artikel/02032/index.html

neopoleII

30-04-2010, 07:08 PM

well, this latest award is indeed great news!
but..........
with being bestowed with such a great award, you would think that intelligent investors all over the world would be prudent to take a small to medium holding in such an award winning company like blis. if this was truely a prestigious and recognised award the sp should rise big time....... what with a sp of around 7 cents US
not trying to put a downer on things.......... but over the last ten years....... good news never seems to add up to much.
not until blis ingredience ends up in mainstream foods will blis take off......... and it will be one incredible rocket ride when it does.
until then......................
show me the money!........ profits.

Cannibal

30-04-2010, 07:45 PM

................ ingredience?..............
...................

emearg

30-04-2010, 08:03 PM

................ ingredience?..............
...................

Now now Cannibal you know what NII means so lets not have another grammar/spelling debate like we had a year or so ago :-)

simla

30-04-2010, 09:07 PM

In my opinion after the pref dividends are taken into account we will be lucky to see more than a couple of hundred K in profit.

Costs for the last half were 1080k. That might have been: 650k underlying, 230k cost of goods, 200k legal/registration. If so, then any profit for the year will heavily depend on revenue growth versus legal/registration costs. That's guesswork though. (I persist in seeing the pref costs as post-profit - they are shares, whereas real debt is an ongoing cost and also needs paying back.)

Maybe it was written by disgruntled employees, but nevertheless makes one think about the value of these awards.

It's no secret that some companies that hand out awards hope to benefit from doing so. But that link nevertheless said this award is based on merit.

This company most certainly deserves an award like this. Great products, great implementation. Well deserved.

Cannibal

30-04-2010, 09:35 PM

Now now Cannibal you know what NII means so lets not have another grammar/spelling debate like we had a year or so ago :-)

Fair point.

I just can't help myself.

And your missing apostrophe was deliberate?

emearg

30-04-2010, 10:36 PM

I just can't help myself

Clearly! :-)

simla

04-05-2010, 09:06 AM

The Bioguard website added this recently: "Currently, BioGuard is available at CostCo on line[,] with expansion plans to begin carrying it in CostCo warehouses in the Fall of 2010." Fall would mean in a few months presumably. That's ambiguous though on whether it will begin in all warehouses then, or begin then a rollout into all warehouses. But it would sound like all warehouses one way or another, wouldn't it? Good news one way or another I'd have said. http://www.imagenetix.net/branded-products/bioguard-advanced-probiotic/

simla

04-05-2010, 09:33 AM

Are Nature's Plus experimenting with other packaging? Are these aimed at airports perhaps? Or supermarkets?

http://i.ebayimg.com/05/!BqJmbU!CGk~$%28KGrHqUOKjkEubBedqGoBLuhmLkQhw~~_3. JPG

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=370360774364&rvr_id=&crlp=1_263602_263622&UA=L*F%3F&GUID=6009aa1b1280a0aad4a69a96ff92ca5f&itemid=370360774364&ff4=263602_263622

Oddly, currently I can find no reference to this anywhere except on Ebay. So this link may not last. It was dated April 5.

In case you already can't see it, the photo is a collection of small packets that look designed to hang off those little hooks at the counters of stores, like packets of sweets do. The whole thing is described as:

21 travel Packs Mix Vitamins & Minerals - Nature's Plus

2 Gold tablets - 3 tabs each pak
2 Tooth Fairy - 2 animals each pak
2 Green & Red - 3 tabs each pak
2 Tummy zyme - 1 animals each pak
2 Shot-o-B12 - 1 lozenge each pak
2 Red mini-tabs - 6 tabs each pak
2 probiotic - 2 lozenge each pak
3 Power teen for him - 2 tabs each pak
2 Power teen for her - 2 tabs each pak
2 Power teen immune booster - 2 tabs each pak

However, here is another single serve concept from them that does seem to be readily available. http://www.luckyvitamin.com/p-30975-natures-plus-source-of-life-red-vitamin-mineral-protein-energy-shake-packet-exotic-red-fruit-flavor-39-grams

Cannibal

04-05-2010, 09:52 AM

Chippie

04-05-2010, 10:49 AM

This is good news. I wish that I had some cash to buy more BLT. There must be a high probability of very good news coming out in the next quarterly report which impact the share price.

simla

04-05-2010, 11:02 AM

That Ebay item is priced at $3.99, and also says, "All Brand new - Less 20 cents each pak". If so, and if that implied they are already on sale somewhere, they would appear to be selling for an average 39 cents a pack [ = ($3.99 + 21 times "20 cents off")/21 packs = 39 cents, or $8.19 total for the 21 packs.] The 21 packs appear to contain 50 tabs in total, or 16 cents a tab. Only some of them contain Blis. Presumably the packets of each product may each have a different price if bought separately, if they are for sale at all. (As always, do your own maths. Corrections welcome.)

In that article Bobby found a few weeks ago, http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file.axd?file=2009%2F11%2FNew+Nutrition+-+Nov+2009+-+Rodney+Mason+quote.pdf , it said, "I’ve seen some of the products our contract manufacturers in the States have put together and they are more akin to sweets." And, "Washington-Smith says a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt."

Now, if little packets like that were hanging in supermarkets and/or airport counters for 39 cents each, that could make for pretty handy sales maybe? What a pity I can find no trace on the net of this apart from this one unexpected photograph.

Am I missing something here, or is this potentially a pretty interesting development? What a pity we have no idea if any of this conjecture on pricing and marketing is real. Still, the packets in the photo presumably exist, and that at least is definitely interesting, regardless of whether they are actually currently on sale, cheaply or otherwise.

simla

04-05-2010, 12:10 PM

This Nature's Plus product, Source of Life® Tablets, http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?productNumber=3056&category=15 , refers to a "sample pack" of 3 tablets. So maybe I'm reading too much into that photograph? No photo of that sample pack though, and no reference to one for Tooth Fairy, which appears to be in the ebay photo.

Still, maybe I'm not reading too much into it. These are by Nature's Plus, a fairly similar concept maybe, and selling for around $1. http://www4.shopping.com/xPO-Nature-s-Plus-natures-Plus-Source-Life-Green-Lightning-Energy-Drink They are definitely interested in selling smaller doses for small prices, it would seem.

Time will tell ... as always. Results late next week would be my guess. Bioguard results are due in the next week or two also.

emearg

04-05-2010, 10:37 PM

Someone is spending some money on pushing the K12 message in Canada.

Check out:
http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=27080&zoneid=2

Here is a couple of bits from it:
Multiple medalist Kristina Groves will open the largest conference and trade show in Western Canada for the natural health and organic products industry, Expo West 2010, May 13-16

While an Olympian opens the trade show, superstar experts will be speaking to retailers in the conference program, May 13-14, preceding the show. Just a few of the stars in the lineup includes the following:

• Professor John Tagg – 'germ warfare' expert and discoverer of BLIS K12, a unique probiotic, shown to reduce tooth decay and gum disease

He is only one of three people to get a mention. A superstar? Hehe, I wonder what Prof Tagg would make of that?

I'm gonna take a stab at the full year results cause I can! I did last year and came pretty close. We will see how I do this year...

Revenue $2,800,000
Profit (after preference dividend expenses) $150,000
Dividend on Ordinary Shares Nil

Anyone else wanna try their luck?

simla

05-05-2010, 08:06 AM

Yes, it's great to see the Canadians going at it with such interest.

But they're one of the reasons why I won't have a guess. The results seem to me to be dependent on a several key things, such as:

Income: How well have the Canadians done in the time available; How well did Bioguard do; Has all Nature's Plus' activity translated into sales, in which case maybe it did pretty well; Are the large number of other manufacturers getting results (Dr Sinatra now sells a 6 month supply, for example); How has Japan gone, given the large population and the relatively high price (it is now on quite a number of web sites); Has Tooth Fairy made a market?

Expenses: Was the GRAS cost in the first half, or is it ongoing, and has the cost grown; Is Europe eating up legal costs now with it's tough regime; What other registrations are on the boil (in other countries, and with more products); Are marketing costs increasing?

Your guess on 2.8 revenue is quite plausible, but requires quite a growth in sales. If so, could it grow even more? And again, maybe it didn't grow so well. ie. The 2.8 requires doubling of sales perhaps from last half, in which case it might as easily have been 1.5 times, or 2.5 times, or some other result. Finding out just how fast sales grew will be one of the most fascinating pieces of the news.

And profit, in my guess, will be heavily dependent on extra costs, as I think we have been given clues the cost of sales is quite reasonable. Extra costs could be legal in particular, or just extra costs of expansion.

My wild card would be that Japan has done pretty well, and maybe even Taiwan. (And I would be pleased to hear that BLT is growing outside the US anyway, for strategic reasons.) Other key bits of news I hope: toothpaste, GRAS, Nestle, yoghurt, NZ.

So your guess of 2.8 is quite possible, but I'm optimistically hoping higher. The profit guess of 150,000 (about 0.5m before prefs) is quite loaded with expenses, and I would hope it would be higher with that revenue.

simla

05-05-2010, 02:20 PM

This is good news. I wish that I had some cash to buy more BLT. There must be a high probability of very good news coming out in the next quarterly report which impact the share price.

Don't know, Chippie. Given the quiet action on the share price now, probably one week before the results, I'm not sure how much reaction there is going to be after any news either. That award seems to have produced almost no interest, for instance. My worst outcome would be for the BLT shares to remain tantalisingly cheap, and thus continue to soak up my cash more than I would like!

Chippie

05-05-2010, 02:41 PM

Don't know, Chippie. Given the quiet action on the share price now, probably one week before the results, I'm not sure how much reaction there is going to be after any news either. That award seems to have produced almost no interest, for instance. My worst outcome would be for the BLT shares to remain tantalisingly cheap, and thus continue to soak up my cash more than I would like!

That is one of the downsides of the NZ market; there are not a lot of buyers so many companies are discounted by the market. The share price is unlikely to do anything until they report significant sales or a profit. There is another possibility of a takeover, which happens to a lot of quality companies that are undervalued on the NZX. Fletcher Energy is a good example of a NZ company picked up by a multinational for next to nothing.

simla

05-05-2010, 03:57 PM

Happily, Barry was wise enough to put a lot of work into setting things up last year so that that is now unlikely. We've been very, very lucky to have someone with such clear insight of what needs doing on all fronts.

simla

06-05-2010, 08:45 AM

The current mood of world sharemarkets probably isn't an easy time to release news of any type. Watching reactions to the BLT news at this time could yet be an interesting lesson in how people react under stress maybe.

Cannibal

06-05-2010, 12:05 PM

Revenue $2,800,000
Profit (after preference dividend expenses) $150,000
Dividend on Ordinary Shares Nil

Anyone else wanna try their luck?

$2.8M is a good number and it fits in with Grant Washington-Smith's statement - "as much as NZ$3M". I'm picking that he was being conservative and it will exceed $3M.

I still say that M18 is the real growth area and the really interesting part will be an announcement to support a couple of other quotes from that document by Grant

Applications for M18 are likely to include chewing gum, toothpaste and mouthwashes.

and

“Our yoghurt delivery system is well advanced,”

emearg

06-05-2010, 09:29 PM

I still say that M18 is the real growth area and the really interesting part will be an announcement to support a couple of other quotes from that document by Grant

Applications for M18 are likely to include chewing gum, toothpaste and mouthwashes.

and

“Our yoghurt delivery system is well advanced,”

All sounds good but i don't see this translating into revenue any time soon. K12 can't be put in food or toothpaste etc yet in the US so I can't see M18 beating it to market!

And as there aren't any K12 food products in NZ or Aussi I can't see M18 beating it to market either. That is assuming M18 has approval for food use in NZ and Aussi which I am doubting.

Good things take time. Too much time sometimes!

Cannibal

07-05-2010, 11:40 AM

I agree with all that. But surely they must have made significant progress in those areas. An announcement of such is what I am looking for. In the past they have made significant announcements at regular intervals.

As an aside the sellers are drying up. There were some at 17 and 18 cents and they have disappeared today - maybe they think that they will get more in a week or two...

brucea

07-05-2010, 11:27 PM

Hi Cannibal - where do you get the info from on the number of sellers and the price of 17 & 18 cents from? I guess share brokers can source this info, but is it available on the web? My FinData web page quotes an "ask" price of 11 cents for BLT today. Interesting how the BLT SP has held given the volatility in other shares at the moment .........

Cannibal

08-05-2010, 02:58 PM

I guess the share price is hiolding up because people are expecting good news. Jut how good is the only point of discussion.

Regarding the 17 and 18 cents, Direct Broking shows me that. The current bidders and sellers are as follows -

BidsQuantity- No. -Price
100,000----https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif---2---- 10.5
100,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif------1------ 7
100,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif -----1----- 4.5
100,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif -----1 ------4

AsksPrice--- No.----- Quantity
11----------- 1----- -1,998
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/spacer.gif11.1 ---------1 ------2,670https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
11.9 ----------2------63,450https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif
12 ------------3 -----121,353https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif

Recent Trades

Price--- Volume---- -Time
11--------502------ 11:41
11------ 19,498 ----10:56

simla

10-05-2010, 08:10 AM

We've been talking about the possible financial results quite a bit lately, not surprisingly.

But I thought it wouldn't hurt to just remember the bigger picture here. We're pretty keen to hear if there is a maiden profit, but the overall position will be what most of us want to hear even more than that. A brief history:

2001 - Company listed

2001-2006 Much effort, but winning strategy not found

2006 - Current CEO contracted to review (March), dietary supplements mentioned soon after, appointed CEO August
2007 - Nestle deal announced (March), Pharmabroker take over NZ sales (April), Rights Issue (Nov), Talk of cornerstone shareholder
2008 - Internal work on jobs and costs and packaging, cornerstone shareholder, Frutarom (Oct), first US ingredient product (Dec)
2009 - Rights issue (March), flood of products in US, opened in Japan, Taiwan, M18, talk of yoghurt and food, Costco
2010 - Canada, Korea, Chewing gum, award.

Current position : well accepted in the ingredients market, now on sale in countries with 500+ million population, skill and intent to market to those people a lot more, food and other products in the wings, Nestle progress expected, other unknown deals in the wings.

Corrections welcome.

simla

11-05-2010, 11:34 AM

Just some ongoing progress:

Here's an ad for CulturedCare in the Vancouver Sun, if you're interested. We don't get to see the advertising much on the net. http://akimages.crossmediaservices.com/dyn_rppi/550.0.80.0/my_cms_p2ionline_com/CMS/NewPhase/data/images/7665633.jpg

Meanwhile, Bioguard is $4 off again at Costco, and now has 5 reviews - the extra one is very positive.

Also, some of you will have noticed the BLT facebook page is getting into gear. http://www.facebook.com/pages/BLIS-Technologies-Limited/106885549355004

Cannibal

11-05-2010, 11:48 AM

Great links - thansk again.

Blis released their 6 month figures on November 12th 2009. That is 1 day short of 6 months ago. Not long now...

simla

12-05-2010, 08:10 AM

People might be interested in Sealegs announcing a maiden profit yesterday. http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/SLG/announcements/3680934/Sealegs-Reports-Maiden-Profit

The share price went from 17 cents to 26 cents on the day, after announcing a profit of $642,000 (before share option costs, 406k after) on 79 million shares (according to the NZX page). So PE doesn't have to be a constraint at maiden profit time.

So, all up, plenty of room to believe BLT doesn't have to be trapped by the PE on a maiden profit. Which makes sense: instinct would tell you that if they announce a maiden profit and a lot of good news for the next result, then surely the share price should rise in proportion, and not get stuck in arcane maths at that point.

simla

14-05-2010, 09:48 AM

It's payday for preference shares today - hopefully for most of us therefore. 5 cents today per preference share. http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/announcements/3626365/Appendix-7-Full-Year-Dividend

The dividend is 10 cents pa per $1 preference share, and every 45 ordinary shares owned last year was eligible to buy one $1 preference share. (http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Announcement%20-%20Rights%20Issue%20Underwriting%20%20Loan.pdf) The ordinary shares were worth say 4 cents at the time, or $1.80 for 45. By putting in the $1, investors then had a $2.80 investment, with a 10 cent return, or 3.57% return on their entire BLT holding.

In that year, then, BLT shareholders who coughed up for the preference shares have had a 3.57% average dividend and a solid capital gain to boot. Not too bad. I think we forget that this company is already pumping out dividends to shareholders.

Corrections welcome, as always.

simla

17-05-2010, 12:01 PM

emearg

17-05-2010, 07:56 PM

We missed this new product, in Australia. Another country using Blis for dietary supplements. It appeared on the net at the end of March.

http://www.phytohealth.com.au/oral-probiotics.html

And here's an ad for it in "The Senior NSW" Magazine: http://seniornsw.realviewtechnologies.com/default.aspx?iid=33567&startpage=page0000055 Its's in both the March and April editions.

Nicely found Simla

GoogleAlerts let me down as I didn't receive anything for this product!

I have completed the form and look forward to receiving a sample, or info, or nothing...

Time for another product list update. Simla, I haven't made it fancy like you suggested. Unfortunately I am too busy of late. Feel free to take ownership of the list and tart it up as much as you fancy.

K12:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=49254&productnumber=49254&category=28

Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29949&productnumber=29949&category=12

Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

Imagenetix - Bioguard
http://bioguardhealth.com/

Solaray - Oral Flora
http://www.smartbomb.com/slr12698.html

VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-exec/product_id/57807/nm/Ear+Nose+and+Throat+Shield

LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Supplements/Item01300/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene.html

Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpages/pro-flora-oral-health/pro-flora-oral-health.html

Epoca
http://www.takachanmarket.com/products/detail.php?product_id=17325

Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
http://drsinatra.net/Products2.aspx?ProductID=BL12

True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™
http://www.truebotanica.com/store/product/TDR1001/TrueDefenseforKids.aspx

True Botanicas - True Defense for Adults
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm

Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
http://culturedcare.com/

KSS66
http://www.leonbio.com/goods.php?id=2

Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Daily)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=37&language=en

Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Boost)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=38&language=en

OralHealth PLUS
http://www.phytohealth.com.au/oral-probiotics.html

KForce

Aktiv-k12

Blis Throat Guard Daily
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Throat-Guard-Daily

Blis Throat Guard Boost
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Throat-Guard-Boost

Blis Travel Guard
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Travel-Guard

Blis Bio Restore
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Bio-Restore

Blis Fresh Breath Kit
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Fresh-Breath-Kit

Blis Rapid Eze Gargle
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Rapid-EZE-Gargle

M18:
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29948&productnumber=29948&category=12

Natures Plus - Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=4383&productnumber=4383&category=22

Includes K12 and M18:
Natures Plus - Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=1120

Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=5224&productnumber=5224&category=29

Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=5220&productnumber=5220&category=29

Natures Plus Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=4385

Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Him Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30002&productnumber=30002&category=11

Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Her Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30004&productnumber=30004&category=11

Natures Plus POWER TEEN® Immune Booster Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=30006&productNumber=30006&category=11

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30711&productnumber=30711&category=15

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Vcaps
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30716&productnumber=30716&category=15

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Mini-Tabs
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30714&productnumber=30714&category=15

Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Energy Shake - Tropical Berry (available in two product formats (can or packet))
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=30748&productNumber=30748&category=15

brucea

17-05-2010, 07:57 PM

I was in Melbourne over the weekend and checked out one of the (very busy) chemist shops in the Elizabeth St; I asked whether they stocked Blis K12 products and got blank looks. I wonder how well known Blis is in Australia?

simla

17-05-2010, 08:46 PM

I'm pretty sure Blis is not sold in Australia under that name, Brucea, although you can buy it on the internet. K12 has been available via Breezecare for bad breath, but their site says, "KForce, Balance and Breeze Products are all manufactured and developed by Dr Speiser and BreezeCare Pty Ltd. These are not commercial products and therefore are not available through retail stores such as chemists or supermarkets. Due to the special nature of our treatments, our products are only available for purchase directly through our worldwide websites or our clinics." http://breezecare.com.au That's why I was pleased to see this new product in Australia.

Thanks for the update, Emearg.

simla

17-05-2010, 09:33 PM

I won't reformat the list, Emearg, as I think on reflection that that makes it less accessible for others. However, here is a copy of that list without all the links, and in vaguely alphabetic format instead, just in case that helps anyone.

Blis:
Throat Guard Daily, Throat Guard Boost, Travel Guard, Bio Restore, Fresh Breath Kit, Rapid Eze Gargle

Natures Plus:
Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™, Adult’s Dental Care, Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai, Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab, Ditto Tablets, Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules, POWER TEEN® For Him, POWER TEEN® For Her, POWER TEEN® Immune Booster, Source of Life® GOLD Tablets, Ditto Vcaps, Ditto Mini-Tabs, Ditto Energy Shake (can or packet), Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat, Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support

Aktiv-k12
Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily, Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong
Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
Epoca
Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
Imagenetix - Bioguard
LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
KForce
KSS66
OralHealth PLUS
Solaray - Oral Flora
Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™, True Defense for Adults
VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield

simla

18-05-2010, 08:15 AM

This seems to be new in Taiwan as well:

http://www.probio.com.tw/big5/news_01.asp?SerialNo=157
http://store.pchome.com.tw/ec_store/M06099621.htm

Throat Guard now seems to be on sale. Previously I'm pretty sure I've only seen the Fresh Breath Kit there, and one says "Release Date: 2010/5/3".

This is being advertised as an oral probiotic, whereas the other was a fresh breath kit. Has there been some regulatory permission come through, perhaps? Or is this nothing more than adding a new product? Either way, it is market development, and that's good.

simla

18-05-2010, 08:43 AM

The 2009 rights issue documentation http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Notice_of_Special_Meeting_Final_13032009.pdf said, "A major food company in Taiwan had previously been in the initial stages of development of food and oral healthcare product applications for BLIS K12 but due to a change in the company’s priorities this did not result in the earlier anticipated release of new products in late 2008. However, the Company is now in the process of continuing with these and other projects through Frutarom."

And the 2009 report http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/Financial%20Reports/BLIS%20annual%20report%202009.pdf said, "While an earlier project in Taiwan has been delayed, additional projects have now commenced through Frutarom. Early progress in this market will be subject to regulatory approval."

So, does the appearance of Throat Guard represent a change in regulatory approval? Who knows. Always fun to wonder though. Perhaps the annual results will tell us something.

simla

18-05-2010, 12:00 PM

Chippie

18-05-2010, 01:17 PM

But wait, there's more. This web site gives a Canadian address and has Blis Throat Guard for sale too. Is the Blis brand name going to be seen around the world then, perhaps?

http://www.oravitalorders.com/ProductDetails.asp?ProductCode=BLIS%20K12%20-%20Vanilla

Wow these guys know how to charge for all their products. I can only assume that people must be prepared to pay these prices.

$54 Canadian for 1x packet of throat guard, which must be very profitable! I noticed that it is the standard packaging so assume that BLT will be wholesaling the product for a reasonable price?

emearg

18-05-2010, 07:44 PM

Wow these guys know how to charge for all their products. I can only assume that people must be prepared to pay these prices.

$54 Canadian for 1x packet of throat guard, which must be very profitable! I noticed that it is the standard packaging so assume that BLT will be wholesaling the product for a reasonable price?

Actually the description of the product is 'BLIS K12 - Vanilla Flavour (3 Pkg)' so it looks to me like it is for three boxes rather than one.

What ya think?

fungus pudding

18-05-2010, 08:13 PM

Actually the description of the product is 'BLIS K12 - Vanilla Flavour (3 Pkg)' so it looks to me like it is for three boxes rather than one.

What ya think?

Yep. If you click on icons of the other products they all say pk of 6, 12 per box, or similar. Wholesale quantities.

Oman

20-05-2010, 07:30 PM

I passed through Auckland airport to Thailand this week. There were 5 bottles of Travelguard at the passenger's only pharmacy ... tucked away on a shelf where only someone searching for them would see them.

No effort at marketing them whatsoever ...and with a price of just over $27 per bottle they are rather overpriced I thought.

mr.needs

21-05-2010, 10:33 AM

Results out

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/announcements/3723301/BLIS-Technologies-Limited-Full-Year-Results

Highlights:

The Company made a loss from trading activities, excluding financing costs, of $99k for the full year to 31 March
2010

After deducting financing costs, the total loss for the financial year was $482k (2009:
$488k)

The Company’s net cash outflows from operations increased from $156k in 2009 to $372k in 2010

Whilst cash inflow from trading revenue and interest increased by $718k, payments to suppliers and employees
increased by $772k

Revenue for the year increased by 64% to $1,888k. Product sales have increased by 103% to $1,238k primarily
due to the increase in sales in the United States and Asia

NZ revenue has increased by 31% as a result of the marketing campaign developed with Pharmabroker NZ,
achieving $192k. The New Zealand market is a small but important test market for the Company

winner69

21-05-2010, 11:01 AM

$2.8M is a good number and it fits in with Grant Washington-Smith's statement - "as much as NZ$3M". I'm picking that he was being conservative and it will exceed $3M.

Is that announcement all you guys going to get .... thats not a full year announcement .... just another rave to wind you guys up

Don't even say what the revenues were .... they say +64% which suppose means revenues were $1.88m ... you guys must be gutted with that ... some way off $3m

You guys keep on about NZ punters not supporting (buying) companies like BLT on the stock exchange but heck if that it is the quality of information they hand to shareholders as an full year result announcement they don't deserve any shareholders

winner69

21-05-2010, 11:15 AM

Ah --- full repprt finally posted

Revenues $1.888m ..,, total loss $482m about the same as last year

Capitalise a lot of their expenses don't they

simla

21-05-2010, 01:10 PM

brucea

21-05-2010, 02:49 PM

What I found interesting in the report was "According to Costco, the Oct-Nov 2009 trial in 54 stores was
successful and a full launch is now scheduled for this product throughout the US chain of Costco stores, later in 2010 to coincide with the start of the fall-winter season." So I am not giving up on BLT any time soon...

simla

21-05-2010, 03:21 PM

Yes, I'm certainly hanging on to my shares regardless of no profit.

The sales market is developing very strongly.

"In the North American market, more than 25 products have now been launched"
"In Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia the first products have been launched in the market."
"Further progress has been made in Japan by Frutarom Asia. There are now two products in the Japanese market with several products in the final stages of product development. It is anticipated some of these new products will be launched in the next twelve months."
"...business development projects are in progress in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and in India. Early progress in some of these markets, such as Indonesia will be subject to regulatory approval."
"[GRAS] is now anticipated in late 2010."
"The clinical trial undertaken by Nestle Nutrition is scheduled for completion in 2010. If the outcome of this clinical trial is successful, it is anticipated that royalty payments could be generated in 2011, with the commercial launch of an infant formula product containing BLIS K12 as an ingredient."
Progress in China

Obviously we were hoping for higher sales. No getting around that. Nevertheless, Blis products appear to be manufactured now in US (309m), Canada (34m), Japan (128m), Taiwan (23m), Singapore(5m), Malaysia (28m), Australia (22m) and NZ (4m). Its got to add up to a fair profit sooner or later.

Trader

21-05-2010, 04:51 PM

winner69

21-05-2010, 05:07 PM

As you say, some way off $3m. I confess to being somewhat puzzled by those results. Massively positive on the business-development front, and heaps better revenue than last year (1.9 vs 1.1), but the second half revenue doesn't seem to have grown from the first half.

Its really worse than 'doesn't seem to have grown from the first half'

Look at sales of the stuff they actually sell (leave out all the licensing R&D and interest) and H@ sales were $574k against H1 sales of $663k .... and the $574 isn;t that much more than the $450k in H2 of last years

Half year product sales trend (last 4 quarters) is $158k, $450k, $663k and now $574k ..... results that don't seem to match the hype - how many amazing success stories can you fit into a annual report .... BLT must have set a record

All smoke and mirrors .... fancy a company with corner dairy takings even being listed

Sorry guys but the best of wishes

winner69

21-05-2010, 05:09 PM

Trading loss=99k less stock adjustment 73k= 26k loss. Last year $463k loss.
Debatable if costs associated with Convertible Preference Shares is purely an expense item. Dividend on ordinary shares isn't. Makes sense to look at trading loss.

Those thinga are their funding so the payments are the equivalent to interest if you get my gist .... and they include the $100k they got in interest in income

Trader

21-05-2010, 05:15 PM

Trading revenue (excluding licensing, interest) increased from $608k to $1,237k.

simla

21-05-2010, 05:47 PM

No, this isn't smoke and mirrors. The product is great, as most people agree when they use it. The demand is there, too. The manufacturers are snapping it up. And if NZ sales (with minimum advertising) were scaled to the over 500m population it is now spreading to, then sales would be over 25m already. And the company is definitely highly competent. And Nature's Plus wouldn't be going with extra products if they weren't selling the old products. But, yes, last half sales are a puzzle.

h2so4

21-05-2010, 08:53 PM

Total cash burn for Y10 $1.3m thats after revenue of $1.9m :ohmy:

winner69

21-05-2010, 09:33 PM

Total cash burn for Y10 $1.3m thats after revenue of $1.9m :ohmy:

Wouldn't want that sort of cash burn to continue much longer eh

Over $800k of that is capitalised research .... to be expensed one day i think

Trader

21-05-2010, 09:37 PM

Notes to the Accounts >$3mil future cash flow savings from tax.

Trader

21-05-2010, 09:44 PM

Wouldn't want that sort of cash burn to continue much longer eh

Over $800k of that is capitalised research .... to be expensed one day i think

Not surprised about capitalised research. 21 products launched. $168k of cost was amortised (Note to the Account 20).

fungus pudding

21-05-2010, 10:16 PM

No, this isn't smoke and mirrors. The product is great, as most people agree when they use it.

How have you managed to get the opinion of 'most people'.

Trader

21-05-2010, 10:26 PM

How have you managed to get the opinion of 'most people'.

A clue from the Operations Report: "In January 2010, BLIS Technologies and Pharmabroker Sales undertook a detailed market research assessment of the top selling retail brands in retail pharmacy for the oral health category, from the research company Synovate. The data showed that the Throat Guard brand held the 5th ranked position in pharmacy, for products in the medicated throat care and preventative throat care category based on dollar sales."

winner69

22-05-2010, 07:40 AM

trader ... obviously somebody who knows the ins and outs of BLT maybe you can enlighten us what the future P&L impact is from amortising the $1.7m of capitalised development costs currently on the balance sheet

Also is it fair to assume that the rate of increase in development costs will continue so another decent lump will be capitalised in 2011 or are the research people working to full capacity and that sort of caps the cost at somewhere near this year level

winner69

22-05-2010, 07:46 AM

One other question - who is the customer who buys ~$750k a year .... if not related to research agreements a fair chunk of real product sales goes to one customer eh

fungus pudding

22-05-2010, 09:29 AM

A clue from the Operations Report: "In January 2010, BLIS Technologies and Pharmabroker Sales undertook a detailed market research assessment of the top selling retail brands in retail pharmacy for the oral health category, from the research company Synovate. The data showed that the Throat Guard brand held the 5th ranked position in pharmacy, for products in the medicated throat care and preventative throat care category based on dollar sales."

Which is not to say that most people like the product. I don't, and don't know anyone who does. Sorry to seem negative, because I wish all the enthusiasts well; but this stuff is nowhere near off the ground, and I can't see anything that shows it ever will catch on. There are heaps of snake oil products selling well, and even highly questionable junk voo-doo stuff with no proof of anything (magnetic blankets) that sell well. Blis just hasn't hit the consumer spot yet, and may never do. This in spite of the fact that Blis seems to be a legitimate health product rather than snake oil, but that's not what sells this sort of stuff.

Chippie

22-05-2010, 11:14 AM

Which is not to say that most people like the product. I don't, and don't know anyone who does. ..... This in spite of the fact that Blis seems to be a legitimate health product rather than snake oil, but that's not what sells this sort of stuff.

Personally I swear by the product. For years I have had chronic halitosis and not even my Dentist had any ideas on what I could do. Now I use the fresh breath kit about 5 times a year and never ever worry about bad breath anymore. This is a massive benefit to my confidence when talking to people now.

Now our whole family uses K12 whenever we start to get the sniffles and I believe it does help our health in the winter time.

Trader

22-05-2010, 02:55 PM

Read Notes to the Financial Statements #1. It explains all about criteria for capitalisation and amortisation/depreciation.

simla

22-05-2010, 04:28 PM

Are you left speechless then, Emearg! Have faith. This is the first real speed wobble we've seen from Blis in two or three years. The Board will all be keen to see better sales, if only because they all have substantial holdings in the company.

The company still sells great products, has quite a bit of cash, has excellent abilities, and is making terrific business progress. And everyone is free to clearly express themselves directly to the company with opinions and suggestions on the results, as I have already done and I'm sure others have too. Obviously we shareholders will now be much more cautious in our expectations on sales until we see more evidence of sales growth, but everything else was nevertheless good news.

spike

22-05-2010, 08:01 PM

If a large % of sales are in the USA during their cold seasons should we expect one ½ of the year to have larger sales than the other

brucea

23-05-2010, 07:02 PM

Personally I swear by the product. For years I have had chronic halitosis and not even my Dentist had any ideas on what I could do. Now I use the fresh breath kit about 5 times a year and never ever worry about bad breath anymore. This is a massive benefit to my confidence when talking to people now.

Now our whole family uses K12 whenever we start to get the sniffles and I believe it does help our health in the winter time.
Chippie, I agree that the Blis products do work. I used to use the fresh breath kit but found it rather a hassle with the protocol of mouthwash and taking the lozenges at set intervals during the day. For the past year I have switched to taking the daily Throatguard lozenges and they have been great! Also easier to make it part of the daily routine. No problem with bad breath and no complications like sinusitis that I used to get with colds. When I do get a cold I get over it very quickly since taking K12. I suspect Blis will come up with some more interesting applications for K12. That is why I continue to believe that Blis will be a success story, but accept that this may still take time. Maybe those of us in the "Blis fan club" were overly optimistic this time around!

simla

24-05-2010, 01:47 PM

Sorry, guys. I usually try to contribute something, but this time I still can't think of anything more to say than "puzzled". One thing's clear, however, and that's that there are limits to what you can learn from the net. We get data, but you can still interpret that data in many ways. It looks like Emearg probably correctly interpreted the effect of the seasonal withdrawal of Bioguard on sales revenue though.

Very clearly, though, the company has a ton of momentum. The only logical thing we can do is wait to see what transpires next. AGM on 30 July is presumably the next source of news.

Cannibal

24-05-2010, 02:55 PM

Yep - puzzled is the word.
Everything is tracking along nicely and it does not seem to compute.
If the seasonal Costco has that big an effect on the sales then I can't wait for it to be in every store - ka-ching!

Who else had heart failure at the recent sell at 3.5cents? An error by the NZX apparently.

simla

24-05-2010, 04:33 PM

I had a suggestion here to gather info, but I withdraw it as too complicated. Back to watching what develops next.

simla

25-05-2010, 10:39 AM

By the way, I boldly declared that I will certainly be holding my shares, while simultaneously declaring I'm puzzled. That's not strictly logical is it, so I would just like to defend my sanity and say that naturally I have always kept my options open like any investor and naturally I always will. After that aside, back to waiting for more news, the basis of all investment decisions.

simla

25-05-2010, 01:57 PM

There's the usual customary silence here when there's unexpected news.

The situation is other than we thought it might be, but time mercilessly moves on and our job as investors is to each look at the actual situation and form a fresh view, as always. The company never promised strong sales growth, we just assumed it from the evidence of new product issues. The company did promise to deliver new outlets and product formats on the other hand, and has indeed delivered, as they do on pretty well everything they say. The company report remains upbeat, and the current share price is still so low that only a small eventual profit is needed to justify it. The surprise is that sales growth may take a while yet, and in an increasingly nervous world. Yes, we will be more cautious in our expectations on sale growth, but don't the low share price and the enormous momentum and ability of this company still make for a pretty promising investment? I'm still puzzled, but surely the main impact of this news is just to change expectations of timing.

winner69

25-05-2010, 05:59 PM

simla - see if trader can solve your puzzle - he appears to be the unofficial (or maybe official) investor relations guy at BLT with the inside oil

Set out why you are puzzled ... you might be surprised what the outcome is

neopoleII

25-05-2010, 07:22 PM

where was the unexpected news?
some posters have been comparing numbers of internet web sites to sales figures.
some posters have been hyping this company up way beyond what the company actually is......... at this stage.
some posters have only recently invested in the company and don't know or don't look at its long history of promises unfulfilled.
it took ten years to get to this stage, it will take a while to get back to positive territory..... (we all have different views of positive territory)

in my view i expected nothing more........
when m18 becomes mainstream, or k12 is in general foods will i expect real sp movement.
until then, holding this stock is a waste of investment money....
there are a few of us out there that have been holding for donkeys years waiting for blis products to go mainstream,
those few of us long term suffers hold millions of shares, waiting for a chance to off load for a profit or a break even.
having said that, the lesson i learn't from investing in blis 9 - 10 years ago has been a valuable one.
many seasoned posters on share trader have a blis type company in their investing history.
as long as you hold a promising but non producing share for endless time, you are missing out on investment growth on producing shares.

im still holding volumes of blis, because there not worth dumping now, after what i paid for them, and i still have an optimistic hope that one day............ k12 and m18 will hit mainstream.

barney

25-05-2010, 07:48 PM

That's probably a pretty good summation of things Neopole.

Those of use who invested in Blis a long time back will see Fridays result as same old, same old.

I agree that Blis won't make any real progress untill they get there product into the general foods market as an ingrediant. Then they can get some bulk sales going without having to bear the costs of marketing,distribution,etc.

It does look like that is where they are heading so hopefully in the not too distant future some results might start coming through. But it would take some real evidence of this before I would jump back in.

simla

25-05-2010, 09:06 PM

Nice to see you guys, and thanks for the feedback. Me, I definitely don't have any inside oil, and have always seen this group as discussing publicly available information. I've always said that, as I've always made clear I'm never advising anybody to buy, sell or trade anything - each must make his own decisions.

I started posting two and a half years ago because I could see that the company had changed direction and I wanted the advantage of discussing the situation. Since then the company has made massive progress and really couldn't be any better poised for success than it is surely. That doesn't make it a dead cert, but it would be pretty hard not to say this is an exceptional company now. The big question now is whether it will hit big sales, as pretty well all others issues have been dealt with. What I'm puzzled about is why sales did not grow last half given that it was available from quite a number of manufacturers by then, although pretty obviously times are tough out there these days, and markets take time to build.

Yes, clearly we've taken the number of websites and products to mean too much progress in present sales. Or some of us have, and others have disagreed over the same time period, and that's the advantage of group discussions. But hyped it up too much? No, I don't think so. They're making great progress and it's not like the share price is miles ahead of the results or anything. But yes, some of us over-hoped on sales progress last half as it's turned out (although I also expressed quite a few reservations for those that were looking, as did pretty well everyone I think, there's no certainty here yet.)

I built up my position over that two and half years, but haven't done much since the price went up. But it hasn't been a waste of money at all over that time. The price has gone up and so have the sales figures. It's still well ahead of having bought a bond during that time, for instance, or heaps of other shares. I know a lot of people regret buying in to the first few years. I think NZ really hasn't had much startup experience before, and we're all learning just how long these things take. Quite a few companies haven't made it, of course.

No, I'm not an insider of any sort. But, yes, I've got a lot of time for Blis. It's a battler and it's always great to see a battler winning. To judge by the comments here over time, I think even the most cynical posters here feel the same way. It's good to have BLT on the market.

brucea

25-05-2010, 09:26 PM

Well done Simla!

Impatient

25-05-2010, 10:12 PM

Wow, checking back into this forum for the first time in over a year (and having since sold my BLT shares at 33% of what I bought them for), I'm surprised not to see the euphoria simla and others used to spread in this forum when I last logged on....what's happening? Just seeing the latest result, I think the sales figures, after so many years, are still pathetic considering how many mouths this company has to feed before shareholders see a cent (which is years and years off, guys, unless the company goes bust before....let's hope it won't). Anyway, just wanted to wish you good luck - hopefully some of you might break even....

Cannibal

26-05-2010, 02:39 PM

Sorry to hear that you got burnt on BLT - a 67% loss is the pits.

"hopefully some of you might break even.... " Not a case of hopefully - I am 150% ahead and looking forward to increasing that. Great company going places and it has got my long term vote.

fungus pudding

26-05-2010, 03:35 PM

"hopefully some of you might break even.... " Not a case of hopefully - I am 150% ahead and looking forward to increasing that. Great company going places and it has got my long term vote.

Given that if you have a reasonable number of shares, the likely price you could sell at might be somewhere between 3 and 7c cents, you must have bought them at around 2 cents avarage. Well done.

h2so4

26-05-2010, 04:24 PM

Cannibal

26-05-2010, 04:58 PM

Heh.

I bought a bucket load at 4 cents. Sold batches off at between 10.5 cents and 14 cents. Enough to pay for my original "investment". Now happy to hold my "free" shares and cash them in in 2-3 years time for a dollar or so. Dreams are free but the company is heading in the right direction and I think that will not be far off the mark.

I wish that my other decisions were so fruitful - getting pasted on Aussie mining specs shares lately.

brucea

26-05-2010, 05:53 PM

FinData recently updated their web page and much to my initial dismay shows the following for my BLTPA holding!!... obviously a glitch in their system ...but let's hope it is not some omen.....

Symbol Exchange Last Change Price (Avg.) Shares Cost (NZD) Value (NZD) Gain/Loss

BLTPA NZX 2.9000 0.0000 0.00 1.9000 6,000 $11,460.00 $0.00 -$11,460.00 100.00

brucea

26-05-2010, 05:56 PM

The tabs in my previous post don't quite match up but it shows a net value of zero and a 100%loss ....ah well....some of you guys will chortle over this!

simla

27-05-2010, 09:08 AM

Sorry to hear you've been bankrupted due to computer error, Brucea. Good to see you taking it with sang froid. Not enough of that about these days.

simla

27-05-2010, 11:41 AM

Let's go fractal. Many people will be be aware of the beautiful mandelbrot pictures, which are a specific subset of fractals eg. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mandel_zoom_05_tail_part.jpg

Snowflakes are famously fractal in shape, and so are share price movements. Everybody is familiar with share prices lurching up and down randomly all over the place, while nevertheless forming trands over periods of time. Basically for our purposes, fractal theory says that a share price will get somewhere via a series of jagged movements. I'm assuming sales growth should follow a similar pattern, as they are both markets. (I apologise for my loose use of fractals here, for anyone who actually understands them properly!)

Secondly, add in the fact that Blis has multiple products in multiple market segments and multiples countries, cities and regions. I think we haven't allowed for that at all. It is a unique feature of Blis that is otherwise only seen in quite established companies with established sales volumes.

So now we're presented with sales volumes being the sum of many fractal movements, instead of a single figure increasing vaguely linearly. In addition to each product market, we also have the fractal movements of the world economy. Thus sales volume is the sum of fractal movements in the world economy, each product, each market, each product format and future probiotic developments (such as M18 already.)

Demonstrating this (?), and by my maths anyway, corrections welcome, these are six-monthly figures for some markets : New Zealand .. 134, 58 United States .. 325, 368, 392 Other .. 161, 122. Each market is seemingly doing its own thing.

Now, each product/market has its own natural character, chiefly comprising of scale and volatility. From a fractal point of view, we would say: how big will any sudden movement be, and how frequenty might it happen. The world economy presently has large lurches and they are happening very often, so they contribute heavily at present. Individual product outlets will have different features too. Costco sales might expect to have occasional large movements because of its size, but we don't know how often that might happen. Some of Blis's smaller products might be expected to only move up or down by quite small amounts, on the other hand. Some countries will probably be more stable than others. The food ingredients market might contribute large movements but that might be often or rarely. And so on.

Sometimes, the sum of these fractal movements will produce negative growth in total, as just happened last half, when world volatility has been very high and with a negative trend. Fractal implies randomness. For instance, opening in 400 Costco stores will not necessarily produce simply 8 times the same result as opening in 50.

If this view is relevant - and I only put it forward as a possibility - it means that investors face a very difficult task in guessing what sales volumes will be over the next few years. They may blossom very quickly, or take much longer, or go with fits and starts of sudden growth between slow patches - any outcome would be completely consistent with fractal theory! Except that a trend will emerge over time. Those who like to time their entry will find that challenging.

Anyway, it feels okay to me. I'm still cautious about sales volumes expectations, but I'm dropping "puzzled". Fractal theory says a few blades of grass will come up randomly first in a new lawn and others won't, but the rest will follow later anyway - the randomness of the first blades does not imply the others are not coming. The blades are coming up, and I'm content to sit back and watch. Progress is increasingly rapid now. But each investor must make his own decision, of course, as always.

simla

27-05-2010, 12:01 PM

Having now worked through my initial puzzlement, I can belatedly remember what I should have done a week ago: publicly thank the company for all its very hard work and enormous enthusiasm. The achievements of these talented people are very impressive, without doubt. Thank you.

h2so4

27-05-2010, 12:28 PM

God I enjoy reading this thread.

It just puts a smile on my face.:)

fungus pudding

27-05-2010, 01:20 PM

simla

27-05-2010, 05:25 PM

God I enjoy reading this thread.

It just puts a smile on my face.:)

If you mean that literally, then yes, why not be happy. If enjoyment from investing is entirely conditional on profit, then we're just putting our happiness in the hands of random events. What's the point of that? I aim to enjoy regardless. And I'm certainly not going to be phased by unexpected results from Blis, which has way to go before it reaches the low risk category! I have money on the line here, but I don't let money rule my emotions.

And if you are being droll, then don't worry, I'm not rolling over on on this stuff. The current management has only been there three years. The first products from that rolled off the blocks only 18 months ago, and virtually all of the current revenue is new since then. In addition, literally dozens of business deals are now in place too. I can't see the logic in thinking things are going badly when so much success is evident.

So either way, thanks!

h2so4

27-05-2010, 06:07 PM

If you mean that literally, then yes, why not be happy. If enjoyment from investing is entirely conditional on profit, then we're just putting our happiness in the hands of random events. What's the point of that? I aim to enjoy regardless. And I'm certainly not going to be phased by unexpected results from Blis, which has way to go before it reaches the low risk category! I have money on the line here, but I don't let money rule my emotions.

And if you are being droll, then don't worry, I'm not rolling over on on this stuff. The current management has only been there three years. The first products from that rolled off the blocks only 18 months ago, and virtually all of the current revenue is new since then. In addition, literally dozens of business deals are now in place too. I can't see the logic in thinking things are going badly when so much success is evident.

So either way, thanks!

I was being sincere, but the reason for my happiness is really irelevant.

You obviously enjoy what you do.........just get happy:)

simla

27-05-2010, 09:58 PM

Which must surely make you wonder why the stuff isn't selling.

I don't think we realise in NZ just how grim it is overseas. Recent quotes about the US:

"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in [US] M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression."
"The [NY] Federal Reserve considers the record rate of mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and their impacts on communities an urgent problem."
"The number of defaults for loans of more than $20 million is increasing rapidly for all product types, including office, industrial, retail and large apartment complexes...Phoenix is at the front end of a major crash."
"32 States Borrow $37.8 Billion Total to Make Unemployment Payments"
"Since 1986, 15 million high-paying manufacturing jobs have left the US and American workers."
"College Grads about to Flood Labor Market; Class of 2009 Still Without Jobs in Deep Trouble "
"I can tell you that around here, the commercial space that was empty a year ago is still empty today. And I’m talking even about the prime locations."
Real unemployment 16-22% according to shadowstats.com
House prices down about 30% nationwide, case-schiller

brucea

27-05-2010, 11:34 PM

There is an interesting quote that the author Susan Jeffers makes in her popular book "Feel the fear and Do it Anyway". She writes that "fear about money often persists regardless of how wealthy we are" and recounts hearing a great line in a Grade B movie "Security is not having money; it's knowing you can do without it". All the doom and gloom that is about - I am sure we have heard it all before.....and the world still turns and the sun comes up in the morning. Maybe there is something in the Blis lozenges that makes me feel optimistic!

fungus pudding

28-05-2010, 09:11 AM

I don't think we realise in NZ just how grim it is overseas. Recent quotes about the US:

"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in [US] M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression."
"The [NY] Federal Reserve considers the record rate of mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and their impacts on communities an urgent problem."
"The number of defaults for loans of more than $20 million is increasing rapidly for all product types, including office, industrial, retail and large apartment complexes...Phoenix is at the front end of a major crash."
"32 States Borrow $37.8 Billion Total to Make Unemployment Payments"
"Since 1986, 15 million high-paying manufacturing jobs have left the US and American workers."
"College Grads about to Flood Labor Market; Class of 2009 Still Without Jobs in Deep Trouble "
"I can tell you that around here, the commercial space that was empty a year ago is still empty today. And I’m talking even about the prime locations."
Real unemployment 16-22% according to shadowstats.com
House prices down about 30% nationwide, case-schiller

None of which explains why it is just not selling at all, or at least in such tiny quantities that it just can't be considered to be getting off the ground.

simla

28-05-2010, 11:45 AM

We're agreed that we wanted second half sales to be higher, and that we do not know why they weren't. All we can do is react to the facts we have. I've explained my own thought patterns, and welcome other's thoughts. That's the point of group discussions on publicly available facts. However, obviously I cannot create new information, and I think we just have to wait now. That the company is working very hard can surely not be doubted. I'm sure each investor is deciding what their own reaction is anyway.

Cannibal

29-05-2010, 06:56 PM

Another new product - hopefully!

http://vitanetonline.com/forums/1/Thread/1642

Oman

30-05-2010, 01:27 AM

Another new product - hopefully!

http://vitanetonline.com/forums/1/Thread/1642

'Now Foods' is a big name in USA supplements so this is another positive, not only because of the new product, but also because of the business that's promoting it. These are big player names coming on line with K12/M18.

brucea

30-05-2010, 07:52 AM

Thanks Cannibal for that quick find! Info to the history of Now http://www.nowfoods.com/AboutUs/HistoryofNOW/000395.htm They have a UK site and a partner in Canada called PureSource.

spike

31-05-2010, 05:52 PM

My wife pop into the local chemist this morning and ask for some BLISS. The shop assistant looked on the shelf which was empty and said “I will check in the back as there has been demand for it from the radio advertising”. We managed to purchase a packet. Good to see it selling. Hopefully they will kept the shelf's stocked.

simla

04-06-2010, 03:45 PM

Yes, thanks Cannibal. It sure is an interesting time to be launching products. Happily the company now has roots down in a large number of distributors and countries. A larger number of Costcos will be carrying it again shortly, and we get to find out what's happening with food and Nestle in the not too distant future presumably. And hints of some development in Australia?

The last year has certainly shown us that the company has the firepower to implement their very ambitious plans, but also that we have to wait to find out when the cash flow will catch up, and we'll all be happy to see that point I'm sure. At some point, the sheer expansion of outlets must outgrow the world's nervousness. Presumably NZ is supplying some of that cashflow right now, with their second winter of resumed marketing.

fungus pudding

04-06-2010, 04:15 PM

Yes, thanks Cannibal. It sure is an interesting time to be launching products. Happily the company now has roots down in a large number of distributors and countries.

So once again I'll ask the same question. Why isn't it selling?

simla

04-06-2010, 05:40 PM

Let's be accurate. The question is not "not selling", because it certainly is selling.

The article http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file.axd?file=2009%2F11%2FNew+Nutrition+-+Nov+2009+-+Rodney+Mason+quote.pdf suggested "a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt." If so, then we might round that to around NZ$1 a bottle of lozenges, in which case the year's trading revenue of $1.238m is hardly "not selling". And further, they are definitely selling very well indeed to the target market of manufacturers and distributors. The question is only why sales did not increase last half noticeably, which is a different question. Even there, US sales did increase by a margin second half anyway, of course. And the trading loss was still very small.

Promise me you realise I am not here to champion the company, but in fact to discuss investment decisions! I did put a bit of work into finding those quotes as to the dire economic situation in the US, and I'm not sure it's entirely fair to just dismiss them without discussion. I think people would be pretty despondent here if house prices were down 30% and real unemployment was hanging around 20%. And of course it takes time to establish in a market in the best of times, anyway.

Investment is a matter of probabilities, and personally I read the probabilities here as looking good. I don't dispute that the outcome is unknown, and I totally respect that there are different points of views here.

fungus pudding

04-06-2010, 06:27 PM

Let's be accurate. The question is not "not selling", because it certainly is selling.

But not in any real quantities. Look at totally unproven products that get associated with 'health'. A current favourite is Resveratrol. I don't know how well it sells in NZ but it's popular worldwide and has no scientific approval. Some bee or honey products are similar. It's largely a nonsense market, but if anything catches on - there's no stopping it. I'm not saying Blis is rubbish, or that it's not rubbish. I'm simply saying that for the number of outlets etc, the turnover is very very low. It just hasn't flown yet, so possibly it never will. Something just ain't working!

simla

04-06-2010, 08:56 PM

Well, by way of comparison, the 2001 report for Comvita, a successful company surely, http://www.comvita.com/annualreportsarchive_1.html reports sales in 1988 of 8.3m and in 1999 of 9.7m (p6). But they then set about a new strategy, "Comvita’s principal growth strategy is to shift from being an exporter to an international marketer of natural health products and health solutions" (p8) http://www.comvita.com/annualreportsarchive_1.html# thus reaching $18m in 2002, $71m in 2009, and $84m in 2010. That's a 17% increase in that first decade, but nearly ten-fold increase next decade after changing strategy.

Comvita wound/skincare honey, by the way, is a superbly effective product to go by my own experience.

What does that tell us? I'm not sure. Things can take time to establish, but on the other hand can grow quickly with a change in strategy. I would have said Blis's strategy was aimed at faster growth still. Also, the same percentage growth is small at first in dollar terms, but ever more effective in dollar terms later on, which is likely to be the case with Blis as well presumably. The uncertainty with Blis at present is surely about trying to sense a stable initial level. Maybe we got that last report, or maybe it will change quite a bit over the next year or so. My guess is the latter, but only time will tell.