BLT - Blis Technologies [Archive] - Page 7

simla

12-06-2010, 11:52 AM

Here's a thought.

We were so busy being surprised that sales didn't seem to go up much over the US winter, that maybe we didn't notice the really big point: sales didn't seem to go up much over the US winter!

All our expectations for a big jump in sales over the US winter were built on the fact that that had happened in NZ. But wait. In NZ, it is more or less accepted that Blis helps prevent colds and coughs - as witnessed by how much stronger winter sales are than summer sales.

But in the US, aren't all the Blis products' sales messages instead aimed at the "fortifies the immune system" message? Rather like "with added Vitamin C"? So there is little seasonal message in that? The flip side has been that US sales have grown consistently, regardless of season.

Perhaps this difference is a choice based on the US law ("This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease."), or maybe it is a culture-appropriate thing.

Compare that to the CulturedCare message - in Canada, not the US. "Is BLIS K12 Probiotic Gum a natural remedy for cold and flu? ... The short answer is 'yes.'" http://culturedcare.com/2010/06/09/oral-probiotics-natural-remedy-for-cold-and-flu/

An interesting couple of exceptions to this in the US both relate to Bioguard. Although the Bioguard blurb on Costco still pushes the fortifying message ("natural defense against immune imbalance" http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11496779 ), yet the Bioguard TV ad pushes "defence" very clearly ("defend yourself this season".) And likewise, the latest CostcoConnection magazine discussed "allergy and cold defense" but did not mention probiotics in the article http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/201006#pg84 Yet we are told that Costco or Imagenetix have put Bioguard into the flu category http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/2010/03/this-is-last-month.html

I sort of said this in my post on fractals, where I noted how differently the different markets were moving. Since when I've been wondering more specifically why. Is this a possible answer?

The company must obviously be aware of this choice between two target markets (plus the breath market of course). They must have considered (a) which one pays off in the short term (b) which one pays off in the long term (c) which one is easier/cheaper to run with (d) should there be different messages in different countries and product formats. In this group we are more inclined to see the anti-cold message as a plus. But a food additive would presumably have a better long term future as an all-year-round immune-boosting ingredient.

This is just a possible interpretation of things of course. If there is any truth to it, though, it changes how this thing might play out next. Plus it maintains the usual pleasurable aspect of Blis watching - like watching a very intelligent game of chess being played out.

Just another bash at a possible interpretation of publicly available facts. As always, I'm never advising anyone to buy, sell, or trade BLT shares, just discussing possible interpretations of facts. In any event, the focus for shareholders at this stage is definitely on how the product is being received in the market place, regardless of whether this particular possible interpretation is any sort of helpful view of the situation.

Cannibal

15-06-2010, 09:51 AM

A bit of light relief...

BLT has God on its side now - sales will soar...

http://therempels4.blogspot.com/2010/06/prairie-naturals-probiotic-gum-review.html

Cannibal

18-06-2010, 09:39 AM

Old news for followers of this thread but good to get some local publicity -

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10652667

http://www.odt.co.nz/campus/university-otago/111277/newborn-study-it039s-all-kiss

simla

18-06-2010, 09:21 PM

Thanks for those links.

I bought some Blis at the chemist yesterday.

Assistant 1 (25 ish) : Yes, that reminds me I should get some more for myself.

Assistant 2 (50 ish) : My son has had a sore throat for 2 days, and this hasn't fixed it.

Assistant 1 : Are you using the pills? You should take this (reaching for Rapideze Gargyle). It's SO amazing ...

I left them to it, still talking about it. Blis seems to be building its reputation here.

Oman

26-06-2010, 12:05 AM

So once again I'll ask the same question. Why isn't it selling?

It is selling of course but the profit margin seems to be far lower than some had hoped. The strategy seems to be to increase the volume of sales and in the background we know the toothpaste and yoghurt developments are progressing ...and maybe other projects we don't know about.

On another point, my wife visited an ENT specialist in Bangkok yesterday and he knew about K12 and said it was good but cold-pressed coconut oil is just as good and will also restore a beneficial bacterial equilibrium in the ENT area ...and you can also cook with it which you can't do with K12.

So part of the answer to the low BLT sales/profit may be that medical specialist know alternatives to K12. In our case the ENT specialist recommended my wife should buy cold pressed coconut oil ...to be held in the mouth (and swilled around in the mouth from time to time) for 20 minutes before expelling.

K12 is a lot easier to take than that, but coconut oil is cheaper than K12 ...and it also makes a quieter home environment which K12 can't do!

simla

28-06-2010, 11:30 AM

I'm sure there's something in that, Oman. There are alternatives of one sort or another. You'd have to say that K12 has an awful lot of scientific testing though, as well as regulatory approvals, which presumably counts for uptake by other manufacturers and their advertising budgets. There seem to be one or two oral probiotics on the market now too, as the last Blis report said.

However, at this stage I think we would surely have to take the major influence on sales to be that few consumers have yet heard of K12 due to the small budget for marketing so far?

Interesting that your Thai ENT chap knew about K12, as I can't see any evidence on the net that it is available in Thailand yet.

Also interesting is your idea they may have lowered the price to go for volume. I've definitely wondered about that.

My current position is that all our logic of last year remains quite reasonable, and therefore will come true at some point, we just don't know what the timing is. It still seems logical that it will pay off soon, but we must wait to see.

Possible reasons for why the sales are not yet booming might include: (1) US ads haven't aimed at the seasonal market (2) Fractally, some products/manufacturers will be selling a lot better than others (3) Times are pretty tough overseas (4) They may have lowered the price for volume (5) Marketing can only expand in step with income, and so takes time. Yes, there is a possibility of this not being a popular product in the end, but I think it is way too early to be wondering that - surely that can only be concluded after hefty marketing, which is nothing like the current situation.

Positive points remain the same: this company is successfully implementing a very positive expansion plan. They have a lot of keen partners. There is definitely a market out there for this sort of thing. They have even better plans for the future in progress now as well. There are a lot of Blis products in the market, which must gain momentum. They are near an operating profit now, and have good cash in hand. They are available in several countries now, with large collective population. Costco are thought to be going nationwide with it. Nestle is expected to adopt it soon, if the trial is successful. Food additives seem close. Gum seems to be popular. And we think yogurt and toothpaste are being looked at.

It's a very positive list and it must come to something pretty good before too much longer surely.

By the way, this appears to be the Malaysian product. It makes no mention of Blis, K12, salivarius, or oral probiotic! But it appears to match the tiny photo in the BLT report. http://www.lifeshop2u.com/en/product/hf_17.php

winner69

28-06-2010, 11:58 AM

Where's tracker these days?

Gone back to the BLT finance dept and keeping a low profile until the next announcement - mind he did a great investor relations job at the half year.

Should ask him how things have gone since?

Oman

02-07-2010, 02:14 AM

3 thoughts to share with others. One is that Barry mentioned a while back that the 3-year plan is going okay and there was some discussion on this thread about what that plan was. I assumed at the time that it was the business plan that would have been presented to Tony Offen before he invested his $3m 'white knight' contribution.

I also assume that the preferential dividend will cease after 3 years (2 years now) but that the converted prefs will draw a similar dividend so investors will get continuity of income after conversion. That assumes that BLT is generating sufficient income in two years time ...but Tony wouldn't have placed his bet money, and the $1m top up, unless the odds were firmly stacked in his favour! So we can speculate about sales etc but for me the assumed 3-year business plan is a strong reason to hang in for another 2 years at least. These players have all the insider information that we have to glean wherever we can.

Secondly I hadn't really noticed the importance of Frutarom as the key player in the K12 rollout overseas ...with the exception of China I think, almost all BLT sales overseas depend on Jack Kline and Frutarom.

The last point is that the annual report mentions that Phamabroker is deliberately focused on phamaceutical outlets to build K12 product credibility. The fact that it is even mentioned in the report indicates to me that someone in BLT reads this Sharetrader thread and decided to politely tell us the reason why we can't buy and retail BLIS products at a corner dairy shop.

brucea

03-07-2010, 08:15 PM

Hey guys - you might want to watch TV3 this Tue 6 July at 8pm "Whats in our.." where Petra Bagust "delves into the controversy about fluoride, finds out what makes teeth yellow and how to stop bad breath etc" I saw the trailer tonight and she was interviewing John Tagg

simla

06-07-2010, 11:58 AM

It will be interesting to see the show on TV3, Brucea. Thanks. We haven't seen Blis on NZ TV for a long time, have we?

Oman, you suggest having a seat at the board table would help feel safe about where things are going. I'm sure it does, but still none of us knows the future until we get there. As usual, Blis investors are going to earn their result by sitting it out over uncertainty.

News from NZ and markets around the world would obviously test many investors' nerves.

Yet on the other hand, Blis itself continues to show much signs of life.

The article "How mum's kiss can protect newborns from infections" gets 4890 results on Google, and I've also seen it show up in other languages. It seems to have gone a little viral.

"Culturedcare gum" now gets 4970 results, and the culturedcare website shows it is available at a lot of retailers. This, too, seems to have caught some sort of wave.

"Now oralbiotic" already returns 370 results.

Plus the usual "what's next" questions that are always in the air with Blis.

As always, Blis investors have to use a lot of judgement.

simla

06-07-2010, 09:03 PM

The product was on screen for 6 seconds. That's probably not going to change the future, but good to see some coverage nevertheless.

On a different note, I was looking at the last annual report again. On page 23, we are told that "Capitalised development costs" were $550k in 2009 and $750k in 2010. The company is not in the habit of wasting money, so that sort of expenditure is presumably chasing something quite interesting? Food for thought perhaps.

brucea

07-07-2010, 09:12 AM

Although it was a mere six seconds, there was a good close up zoom on the Throatguard bottle, so this was at least something I guess. Pity the M18 developments were not able to be raised. I may have mentioned this before that a friend of mine is a hospital pharmacist and knew nothing about Blis K12, so I had to recently educate him about the product. I suspect public awareness of K12 is quite low, although a few associate it as a treatment for bad breath (we know it is much more than that!) -however word of mouth advertising is unlikely to be that successful as few people would admit to having a problem with bad breath or even suggest (I know I cant!) to a friend who has it that they try it, due to the sensitivity of this topic. Hence the need for advertising to gain significant sales; let's hope Frutarom and their agents have the financial resources to promote this great product. The M18 probiotic stands a good chance for "word of mouth" advertising as everybody would feel comfortable discussing the prevention of tooth caries. Piggy-backing as an additive on the back of an established product (toothpaste, yoghurt etc) would be the dream way to establish brand recognition of K12 and M18. Forgive me if I have rambled!

Cannibal

07-07-2010, 12:01 PM

Yep - short and sweet at best. The interesting thing for me is that he is becoming the subject matter expert in the topic for NZ at least and possibly elsewhere.

h2so4

07-07-2010, 07:02 PM

simla

15-07-2010, 10:29 AM

A tough business climate versus a plucky little company ...

On the down side, we may as well admit that current conditions are not easy for strong sales growth. Here's a couple of entries on interest.co yesterday:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-wither-green-shoots "This was confirmed most notably in Walmart’s poor first quarter sales results when CFO Tom Schoewe stated, "More than ever, our customers are living paycheck to paycheck." If that sentiment applies to other large retailers, it doesn’t bode well for 2010 GDP."

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/core-retail-sales-fall-third-month-running-consumers-snap-wallets-shut And in NZ, "core retail sales fell 0.2% in the month, much more than economists had expected and extending the core retail sales fall to the fourth month in the last six months." "Government Statistician Geoff Bascand said this was only the fourth time a decrease has been recorded in core retail sales, compared with the same month of the previous year, since the series began in 1995. "

On the positive side, on the other hand, is that Blis already has a pretty strong beating heart inside it when you look. The Income statement (p20 of the last report) and the notes to it (p29), show the following. Sale of goods income was 1,237,888. Licencing fee income was 311,200. (Were licencing fees part of the "sales" or part of the R & D exercise? We're not sure are we?) Against that, cost of goods sold was only 514,459.

Blis is embarked on a strong expansionary strategy which is costing money. In addition to incidental expansion costs (such as legal costs), Blis also has preference dividends costs and the cost of the office structure which it needs, plus ongoing R & D expenditure. Those are sensible costs to carry given the view of Blis's potential, but they also cost money.

So we have two sides to Blis at present: (a) the income from a good ratio for revenue/cost of goods sold, which is it's already strong beating heart (and which the company put a lot of work into a year or two ago, it's not just coincidence); and (b) the costs of expanding into the future.

The fact that the company is almost able to make a profit even while also straining to achieve so much just goes to show the strength it already has. Times are still looking tough, but this plucky company has grown a strongly beating heart to tackle it with.

That's how I read it, anyway.

Either way, the company has two projects on its hands now: continuing to beat a path into the future, and yet also hammering away to lift current sales. That's pretty hard work for a small group of people, and I'm sure they'll be pretty happy when the cash flow finally gives more room to manouevre.

With the AGM in a couple of weeks, we hope to find out more about how that's playing out.

Cannibal

20-07-2010, 09:07 AM

Excellent executive overview of Imagenetix here -

http://www.crystalra.com/pdf/IAGX_EIO_07-19-2010.pdf

It's a bit long but heaps on Blis and also lots on the probiotic market in general, with trends and risks explained.

simla

20-07-2010, 12:37 PM

Hey, excellent find, Cannibal. Some real detail on Imagenetix.

And at last! Confirmation that Bioguard will be in all Costco sites in September this year. That is excellent if true. The report is so detailed that it must be based on discussions with Imagenetix itself surely?

"BioGuard™ is currently available on Costco.com, where the Company believes it primarily competes with products such as Airborne®. A trial program with BioGuard™ was completed at 55 Costco stores in the Pacific Northwest, which the Company complemented with television advertising campaigns to promote sales. It is scheduled for distribution to all Costco locations as of September 2010. Imagenetix is now also working to introduce BioGuard™ at additional food, drug, and mass-market stores."

And here's their analysis of the current competition, mostly other versions of K12.

"Imagenetix’s BioGuard™ faces competition from other products containing the BLIS K12™ probiotic, including Nature’s Plus Ear, Nose, and Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics (www.naturesplus.com), CulturedCare™ ProbioticGum with BLIS K12 (http://culturedcare.com), Aktiv-K12 Probiotics (http://aktiv-k12.com), and Swanson Health Products’ Oral Probiotic BLIS K12 for Immune System Support (www.swansonvitamins.com), among others.

Additionally, BioGuard™ may compete with products that use different active ingredients but address the same indications. For example, EvoraPlus™ (www.evoraplus.com)—a mint that supports gum and tooth health, fresh breath, and white teeth—uses Probiora3™ probiotics. Both the product and the probiotics are produced by Oragenics, Inc., a Florida-based biopharmaceutical company. The Airborne® health products (http://airbornehealth.com), which contain blends of vitamins, minerals, and herbs to support the immune system, may also pose significant competition for BioGuard™."

And an excellent and clear summary of the science supporting Blis, on pages 20 to 24. I'd love to see such a clear blurb on the front page of the Blis web site in NZ. Amongst other statements, "BLIS K12™ has been studied in more than 30 tests demonstrating its safety and effectiveness, summarized in Table 7 (page 24)."

And their plans for the future? "Going forward, Imagenetix aims to accomplish the following: ... Continue advancing the distribution of BioGuard™ as a year-round immune system booster at additional food, drug, and mass-market stores". (This fits in with my recent conjecture that K12 is not being pushed as a seasonal produst in the US?)

simla

20-07-2010, 03:48 PM

This story is about selling probiotic food. It illustrates the ongoing theme that it is difficult to satisfy the health authorities on probiotics. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nestle-subsidiary-to-settle-ftc-false-advertising-charges-will-drop-deceptive-health-claims-for-boost-kid-essentials-98373589.html

But does it raise the bar higher for companies like Blis, making life more difficult? Or is Blis's scientific research a tailor-made solution to this problem, making this an opportunity? Who knows!

It certainly echoes the problems Blis has already found in trying to establish just what the authorities will accept - it's all new ground for everybody, including the health authorities.

simla

22-07-2010, 08:51 AM

It sure is quiet on this group lately. I would say it was just this group except that the same thing has happened to the share price.

It isn't logical, from where I'm sitting. There's no chance that this company has been sitting on it's hands since the last report.

Cannibal

22-07-2010, 09:20 AM

This story is about selling probiotic food. It illustrates the ongoing theme that it is difficult to satisfy the health authorities on probiotics. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nestle-subsidiary-to-settle-ftc-false-advertising-charges-will-drop-deceptive-health-claims-for-boost-kid-essentials-98373589.html

Not sure what your point is here. Nestle made silly claims that they could not substantiate and they rightly got whacked for it. None of the retailers of K12 and M18 based products have made unsubstantiatable claims and hopefully never will.

It does tar the probiotic marketplace in general though when someone as large and "respectable" as Nestle does this sort of thing.

I know that unsubstantiatable is not a word but it should be...

Cannibal

22-07-2010, 09:24 AM

There's no chance that this company has been sitting on it's hands since the last report.

I agree totally. Historically they have made good progress in relatively short timeframes. There has been nothing significant for far too long. Hopefully midday next Friday will be interesting.

Errant apostrophe there Simla - tch, tch.

h2so4

22-07-2010, 09:44 AM

Cannibal

22-07-2010, 09:51 AM

I'll take that as a compliment...

Great news article from Oz here - http://culturedcare.com/2010/07/21/probiotic-gum-featured-on-9-network-australia-tv/

h2so4

22-07-2010, 10:02 AM

Yes indeed.

simla

22-07-2010, 11:36 AM

Well, if we weave the Australian TV Clip with the Nestle news story, we might ponder some things...

1. It's all about food ...

Go back to this interview (Nov 2009) which said that the future of Blis was with food. http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file.axd?file=2009%2F11%2FNew+Nutrition+-+Nov+2009+-+Rodney+Mason+quote.pdf "For K12 the future may lie increasingly in food and beverage products. Washington-Smith says BLIS has been working with the ingredient in yoghurt applications. “Our yoghurt delivery system is well advanced,” he says. “I see greater and greater effort going into the functional food space, especially the yoghurt area. In South East Asia and Singapore we have had a lot of discussion with companies about the inclusion of K12 in yoghurt products. Our future is going to be in functional foods.”

And the last annual report (p7) http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Technologies%20Limited%20Annual%20Report%20 2010.pdf: "Following the Food Standards Authority of Australia and New Zealand (FSANZ) ruling in 2009 allowing the use of BLIS K12 in foods, BLIS is now actively working with Frutarom to develop new commercial opportunities in Australia."

(And is gum a food? Maybe, as lots of people swallow it.)

2. Extra human trials for GRAS, for food

The last report said (p6):

"[anticipated] that [a GRAS] application would be filed with the FDA in early 2010. However ... the decision was made to provide additional human data; this will ensure the Company can provide the most robust application possible and also establish the regulatory standard which other potential oral probiotic companies must obtain in the future. Consequently, and assuming no further unforeseen changes in the regulatory environment, the timeframe for this approval is now anticipated in late 2010."

3. Nestle need human trials too

The Nestle story http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nestle-subsidiary-to-settle-ftc-false-advertising-charges-will-drop-deceptive-health-claims-for-boost-kid-essentials-98373589.html said, "Nestle HCN ... agreed to stop claiming ["that its probiotic product would prevent kids from getting sick or missing school" unless] backed by at least two well-designed human clinical studies."

4. And here's at least one human trial in NZ completed apparently?

The Australian TV story http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYdIneidn7g was about some NZers who "took part in trials in NZ" (past tense) with CulturedCare gum. One participant talked of "staying healthy", which would conveniently seem to answer the question Nestle faced.

I am not suggesting Nestle and BLT are working together on this, but it certainly does show BLT seem to be where they need to be.

5. And meanwhile in Europe ...

And the annual report p11 again, "Preparation of these submissions [on safety in Europe] currently represents one of the most important activities undertaken by the Company."

So, what does that all add up to? I'm not sure. But it does suggest the company is pursing a pretty clear and active policy here with a clear goal in mind.

simla

22-07-2010, 11:40 AM

That TV clip said "The gum could be approved for sale in Australia within a year." Is CulturedCare gum destined for world-wide release then? That would make it the first international K12 product we've seen, wouldn't it? And were those excellent computer graphics really done just for that TV story?

brucea

22-07-2010, 04:51 PM

I use Blis Throatguard regularly and my experience has been that I still get the occasional cold, but I recover in a couple of days and do not experience weeks of the usual complications of sinusitis, persistent cough and earache that in the past often lasted for weeks. By the way, is Prof. Tagg Australian as claimed in that TV item? He does appear to have an Oz accent, so I guess we cant accuse the Australians of yet again claiming one of ours as one of theirs...

mccollr

22-07-2010, 08:23 PM

I am also a long time user of Blis Throatguard. I swear by it. Anyone mentions a sore throat within earshot of me gets the full sales pitch. :-) I have just returned from purchasing another box from a Upper Hutt Chemist to find they had the full range of Blis products displayed in the prime spot behind the counter. Looked great. I was in Wellington yesterday and a pharmacy near the railway station had a full window display of Blis. That looked very impressive in one of the highest foot traffic areas in the city.

Rod

Cannibal

23-07-2010, 08:45 AM

Canadian Health magazine (http://www.canadian-health.ca/index.html) has just published a feature on CulturedCare Probiotic Gum with BLIS K12 – “Chew Your Way To Fewer Infections” (http://www.canadian-health.ca/5_3/12_e.html) - in their summer issue. (Canadian Health magazine is published by the Canadian Medical Association and is placed in doctor and dentist offices across Canada.)

simla

24-07-2010, 09:55 AM

I agree totally. Historically they have made good progress in relatively short timeframes. There has been nothing significant for far too long. Hopefully midday next Friday will be interesting.

Good to see plain, positive support for the company expressed publicly, Cannibal. It seems to be in short supply lately. I can't understand it personally, as this still seems a hugely exciting business to me.

The company has two halves actively running now.

The ingredients business has been very extensively developed, with many manufacturers and multiple countries, and we're told there will be more. Yes, sales in this area didn't seem to grow much last half (but yes, it did grow, when you remember that NZ drops away over summer), but there's still heaps of activity, and Costco is apparently going nationwide with Bioguard shortly according to that clip above. And CulturedCare are looking very active. BLT is undoubtedly working hard on growing this area.

And the ingredients business seems to me to have made a profit of at least half a million last year (sales revenue less cost of goods), which money supported the company through its fixed costs and its second business development.

The second business is the food business, on which they are clearly going at it hard. Having pulled off the extraordinary achievement of setting up a successful ingredients business network, they seem to be going just as hard at the food ingredients area now. (Is the gum in the food area, or the ingredients, I wonder?)

Even then, we are aware the company is working on a third area which is relationships with companies with a global reach. Nestle is here already, but they hint at others being looked at.

All this is laid out in the strategy section on p6 of the last report.

So, yes, I'm expecting the Friday report to continue a trend of good developments.

Nigel

29-07-2010, 11:01 AM

Looking forward to tomorrow's release, and to seeing what any news does to the shareprice! This stock seems to drift downwards between announcements as people maybe 'get tired of waiting' for the next update (?) but then has the tendency to jump very sharply on positive news. I think this company has a very bright future, and we're just starting to see some exciting developments as it sets up in new markets and brings new products on line.
As always, DYOR :)

brucea

29-07-2010, 12:28 PM

I am attending the Blis annual meeting tomorrow if any of you "members of the Blis Fan Club" guys happen to be there and want to catch up for a chat. Yes, I know it is well south of the Bombay Hills for a JAFA to travel out of his comfort zone.....oh well...."fear the fear and do it anyway".

Cannibal

29-07-2010, 04:46 PM

I would love to be there but it is a bit too far. Hopefully it will be a goody.

Share price is doing usual pre-AGM stuff - all over the place.

Mildly interesting read - http://couponclippingnutritionist.blogspot.com/2010/07/giveaway-cultured-care-probiotic-gum.html

Cannibal

30-07-2010, 02:45 PM

Announcement from the AGM is out - https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2561074

Highlight is - Rite Aid Pharmacy is launching a K12 based product. Rite Aid operates more than 4,780 stores in 31 states and the District of Columbia, features a strong presence on both the East and West Coasts, and employs approximately 109,000 associates. Rite Aid is the largest drugstore chain on the East Coast and the third largest drugstore chain in the U.S.

4,780 is a lot of pharmacies!

simla

30-07-2010, 03:09 PM

Yes, another round of good news.

"The latest US retailer to confirm their interest in the BLIS K12 probiotic is Rite Aid Pharmacy. This Fortune 500 Company is the third largest drug store chain in the United States with nearly 4800 stores nationwide."

"Sales of ingredient YTD have exceeded those for the same period last year." No detail though. "North America would remain a significant, profitable and growing market for the Company for several years to come"

I like this very much, an upscaling in consumer marketing: "a shift in emphasis toward communicating the benefit of the BLIS probiotic directly to consumers. The Company, in partnership with its North American distributor Frutarom, is building a new consumer-focused website to support US consumers. An on-going public relations campaign is also being developed to support the marketing effort, towards the retail consumer."

And "Company also announced that it would formally release the BLIS M18 probiotic in September 2010."

GRAS work proceeding, but no particular time scale mentioned. Access to Europe experiencing delay. No mention of the Nestle situation, but presumably we would have heard if anything untoward, so presumably on track.

"reaffirmed the company was well positioned for growth in the future".

Arthur

30-07-2010, 03:46 PM

This is all from memory so forgive me if I make a few errors.

A few highlights- sales great so far.

Sales and orders year to date 600K (last year full year 720k)
Sales and orders M18 200K

Don't extrapolate this is the busy run up to the cold and flu season in USA.

Could do GRAS now but better to do a human trial.

Regulation a pain, but also a barrier to entry for competitors.

Rite Aid looks like a big one. Between them and Costco they have agreed to a marketing budget of $NZ1 million this year. (lets read that again folks!)

Nestle should have results over the next few months.

Other trials going well, but they want runs on the board and positive cashflow before they go there.

Arthur

30-07-2010, 03:51 PM

http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20AGM%202010%20FINAL%2030%20July%2010.pdf meeting notes there now

simla

30-07-2010, 04:06 PM

Hey, thanks Arthur.

$1m marketing budget fantastic. Sales and orders great, too.

Extra details from the presentation compared to the press release:

GRAS expected end of this year.
Nestle evaluating trial results. (Anything further said at the meeting?)
M18 progressing well.
Initiating sales in Europe, so something is proceeding. (Any details of how at the meeting?)
Sales chart looking good.

So, we currently expect:

Bioguard to go nationwide in a few weeks, according to the presentation.

Rite Aid to launch it with 4800 stores in a few weeks, according to the presentation. Imagenetix was mentioned in relation to this new product.

M18 "formally launching" in September, which presumably means starting down the road that K12 has been down? Or will there be a different path? Last year's sales revenue was largely as a result of that K12 launch about 18 months ago, wasn't it? So that could be significant.

"shift in emphasis toward communicating the benefit of the BLIS probiotic directly to consumers" in conjunction with Frutarom.

No new details on Asia, but presumably the market continues to make ground there.

The company is taking on the look of a company now really concentrating on increasing it's sales (like they ever forgot that!). That's good. And the above surely shows the potential for significant success.

Nigel

30-07-2010, 04:08 PM

Thanks Arthur, Simla and Cannibal.
The presentation tells a very positive story. Regulatory process still taking time but sales continue to grow, so much on the horizon in terms of new products and new markets, and Rite Aid is a massive piece of news.
I'm very very excited about the future of this company. In 2-5 years time I think we'll be shaking our heads with disbelief at an incredible NZ success story.

Nigel

30-07-2010, 04:27 PM

Congraulations simla on 500 posts - am I correct in saying they are all on BLT?
Thanks for your dedication to this stock, for scouring the internet for updates and sharing your findings with us.

simla

30-07-2010, 04:41 PM

Thanks, Nigel. I hope you have read all 500! At least twice? No, they were not all on BLT, but most.

And thanks to all who have helped with this long discussion we've had. (Including Emearg, who I wish would rejoin us with his excellent observations.)

Ironically, I am expecting to reduce the frequency of my contributions from here on in. The last two years or so has seen Blis transform from a sleeper into a real go-getter. Our conversation during that busy time has given me the confidence to take a position in BLT, as I imagine it has others. But it is now a more certain beast, so I see less need to discuss it so much after this. Mainly we are currently waiting for revenue to show the promise we (mostly!) all believe in, and after that I think we will have the pleasure of seeing a very capable company exercising its strength and abilities. Exciting though the last couple of years have been, the best is yet to come.

skid

30-07-2010, 04:44 PM

Hi guys
just got back from canada.
Everywhere I went ,I kept seeing a cooler with a big Probiotics sighn and I think it was K1 or something like that.
I looked on the sighn to see if it said anything about Bliss or NZ but it only had a website. anyone know if this was Bliss or another product,It was certainly noticeable.
If it wasnt bliss,I certainly didnt see it just by browsing.
Good to see positive news for all you Bliss holders

simla

30-07-2010, 05:18 PM

Blis in Canada is only through CulturedCare gum as far as we know, which that doesn't sounds like. http://culturedcare.com

simla

30-07-2010, 05:44 PM

As usual, a strong congratulations and thank you to the Blis team for their achievements.

emearg

30-07-2010, 06:59 PM

Don't worry Simla...I haven't died or anything. I have just been keeping quiet as life as been busy, and I did enough talking leading up last years good, but somewhat dissappointing result.

I am happy to sit on the sidelines and observe. I will probably do this silently for the most part.

Todays news continues to confirm that Blis is on the right track.

I did note a couple of months ago that RiteAid are selling Natures Plus K12 and M18 products so it is interesting that they intend to release their own product?

I'm having another winter of good health even though friends, family and my workmates have been sick as dogs. Several days I have taken 3 or 4 tablets when I feel something wrong. So far so good.

Today 6 pottles of the Veglife product turned up from the states. That is 300 tablets to keep me healthy. As I may have mentioned I am a contractor so money spent on these products is very well spent if it keeps me well and earning. Its not so bad if you are an employee and somebody else pays the bill when you get sick! It was $92.08 NZ for this, and a few days after ordering I found another supplier that is even cheaper, although their shipping charges are higher.

I'm very happy with Blis, the progress they are making but do realise this is a long term hold. I don't fear they will go insolvent, so am quite happy to allow them time to implement their business plan. As I have suggested before Barry (and perhaps some of the others at Blis) is clearly a capable business person and that is exactly what Blis has needed all along.

I am continuing to update the products list and will post an update at some point as I think there are one or two that nobody else has noticed yet.

Sorry to hear that you are going dark (or less light) Simla as I rather enjoy reading your comments about Blis but I understand the rationale behind your decision.

Don't forget to take your Blis...

Arthur

30-07-2010, 08:07 PM

Hi Simla

They just said that they were looking forward to the Nestle results in the next few months and that they were a good partner. From memory Nestle trialled the milk with 200 in France. It did not seem like a big sample to me but Barry suggested that that trial would cost a lot of money.

Europe has a whole lot of regulation and it is getting worse. Taking the soft slow approach there while USA is cooking. Japan is a slow ramp up but they think sales will be steady when they develop. It will be a more stable market than USA.

Soft launch on M18, stepping up a gear in September and another in October at SupplySideWest.

SupplySide West is the world's largest event for healthy and innovative ingredients with 1,200+ booths. Food, beverage, dietary supplement and cosmeceutical manufacturers, marketers and formulators attend SupplySide West to find ingredients, suppliers and ideas to create their next best seller.

Given the above I was pleasantly surprised to see orders/commitments of 200K already for M18. In my opinion this is a bigger market than K12. It should also be less seasonal.

simla

30-07-2010, 10:12 PM

Thanks for all the details, Arthur. Describing Nestle as a good partner is a pretty broad hint that it's all going pretty well. If Nestle launch a product early next year, I'm sure we'll all be very happy about it. And they are probably keeping an eye on other developments with Blis, too.

Yes, the 200k sales/commitments for M18 is good. That presentation said 600k for K12 sales/commitments so far too, so that's a total of 800k already. As you said though, that doesn't mean it will remain that high for the rest of the year. Is it reasonable to think there will be a bit more this half though? And on top of that we have NZ and Asia presumably, plus research income and any grants. Am I imagining it, or is it a reasonable possibility that this half could produce the excellent result we thought of as a best case last half?

Emearg, good to hear from you again. I'm glad you're watching the new products, because I dropped away on that after the last result. Suddenly the focus was on how well the existing products could sell. I certainly would be interested in hearing what you've found.

This news is really very, very, very satisfying. Very.

The last annual report raised issues of sales revenue and customer marketing, and this news has addressed those matters completely head on and very strongly. Arthur reports a million dollar marketing budget from Costco (and/or Imagenetix presumably?) and Rite Aid. And Blis and Frutarom are launching an end-customer campaign separately, which combination has been very effective in everything they've touched so far. Then we have the news that Bioguard (or a variation) will be selling in over 5000 stores across the US in a few weeks! (That IS what it said, isn't it?!) And that ingredient sales revenues are already doing well (although probably a reflection of stocking those stores for that launch.)

That's a very strong framework to generate good sales with. It boils down to whether the marketing and/or customer experience can generate some repeat sales, I guess. If so, looking very good.

With just three months before the next financial results, it will be most interesting. I guess the following half will largely revolve around how much repeat business Costco and Rite Aid produce. Or whether BLT have more cards up their sleeves. Or whether Nestle launch their product in that time. Or other food product manufacturers, assuming GRAS. Or developments in parts of Asia, and Australia. Quite a few possible sources of growth, in fact!

NZ is very lucky indeed to have a hugely talented team like BLT in its ranks. As are the shareholders.

skid

31-07-2010, 09:41 AM

It was actually Walmart where I was browsing ,but after looking on the websight it doesnt appear to be kept in a fridge so it must be a different product.Must cost a fortune to keep refridgerated.
Hopefully Bliss will be higher profile soon.It may still be in Walmart,but not easily found by browsing.
Boy ,they sure know how to consume in North America!

brucea

02-08-2010, 09:00 AM

I attended the annual meeting in Dunedin last week and was very impressed with the Blis team that were present - full of passion for their product and the company! There was an air of positivity which I hope translates into continued improved sales in the States by the end of 2010. Good to see that Emearg had not karked it and is back on board albeit in a reduced role. All we need is to hear from again that Fungous pud is in the land of the living and we will be one big happy family again........

brucea

02-08-2010, 09:03 AM

emearg

02-08-2010, 05:57 PM

Well it wouldn't cost a fortune to refrigerate if they used Wellington Drive motors for their cooling units!

I would prefer they didn't buy any WDT motors as that would only increase WDTs loss...

fungus pudding

02-08-2010, 06:02 PM

Cannibal

02-08-2010, 06:24 PM

Group hug!

Mmmmm - that felt goooooood!

emearg

02-08-2010, 06:39 PM

Glad to see we are all alive! Perhaps we all take Blis products? ;-)

Big day of trading today. I can't remember 80k worth of shares trading in a single day ever! Even better to see the price not drop (much).

It is interesting to see BioGuard (or similar) being launched at Rite Aid. If you read the Imagenetix report that somebody provided a link to a few weeks ago you will note how widely distributed their Celadrin product is. Costco and Rite Aid are just two of at least a dozen they list. It seems reasonable to think that within a reasonable short period of time BioGuard will be sold in most if not all of the same outlets. That would be huge. 310 million people in the States and most of them seeing/walking past BioGuard on a shelf on a daily or weekly basis is a pretty big shift from where we are now, and huge from where we were two years ago.

Another interesting thing that most of you won't be aware of is that CulturedCare are planning on bringing a M18 product to market. They are waiting on regulatory approval. It will be interesting to see if it is another gum product. I can see that selling rather well at Dentists, not to mention more mainstream outlets. Personally, I think they should (also) make a K12/M18 product. Both probiotics in one product would allow some pretty impressive marketing claims!

Momentum is building...

emearg

02-08-2010, 06:41 PM

Group hug!

Mmmmm - that felt goooooood!

Yeah baby :-)

simla

02-08-2010, 07:10 PM

Another interesting thing that most of you won't be aware of is that CulturedCare are planning on bringing a M18 product to market. They are waiting on regulatory approval.

Okay, you've got me stumped. How on earth did you pick that up! And do you know if they mean US or Canada (or...) ? Waiting for regulatory approval surely must mean GRAS?

emearg

02-08-2010, 07:21 PM

Okay, you've got me stumped. How on earth did you pick that up! And do you know if they mean US or Canada (or...) ? Waiting for regulatory approval surely must mean GRAS?

Some smart as$ silly bugger posted something on CulturedCare and they responded and included that tidbit in their reply.

No, I think the approval they are after is similar to what they wanted (and got) for K12.

I can't see an M18 GRAS application happening in parallel with the K12 application. Blis just don't have the man power to support it. Hopefully I am wrong about this. Sometimes I love being wrong :-) I doubt I am wrong...

brucea

02-08-2010, 07:48 PM

Relax. I'm still breathing (most of the time).
Good to see Fungous pud has not karked it either - he/she keeps the rest of us grounded when some of us get over exuberant....

fungus pudding

02-08-2010, 08:23 PM

Good to see Fungous pud has not karked it either - he/she keeps the rest of us grounded when some of us get over exuberant....

Definitely he.

simla

02-08-2010, 09:22 PM

That 9 Network Australia clip http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYdIneidn7g also said the gum could be available in Aus within a year. (Would that imply NZ too, being the same authority, or is marketing money needed.) A good question to ask CulturedCare might be whether they expect to sell around the world in the end? It might be interesting too to ask if they expect to sell outside health stores anytime soon? Certainly an M18 gum would seem a fairly attractive proposition anyway, and maybe that would sell more easily in a supermarket setting than K12, being a more easily understood concept perhaps.

Cannibal

02-08-2010, 10:42 PM

A good question to ask CulturedCare might be whether they expect to sell around the world in the end?

I guess it depends on your definition of "sell"

International Sales – Click on the store names below to order online:

THE CANADIAN VITAMIN SHOP (http://www.canadianvitaminshop.com/epages/Store.sf?ObjectPath=/Shops/Vitaminshop9db&ViewAction=ViewProduct&ObjectId=4308300&Category=#)
NATURE’S FARE (https://www.naturesfare.com/store/Terms.aspx)
NATURAL VITAMIN DIRECT (http://www.natvd.com/en/online-shop/probiotics-and-digestives/cc5010-2.html)
NUTRAWAYS (http://www.nutrawayscanada.com/Probiotic-Gum-with-BLIS--Spearmint-Peppermint-Flavour_p_1660.html)
LIFESTYLE MARKETS (http://www.lifestylemarkets.com/shop/brand2.asp?storeID=A45C6CEF51584955A3036F6405FAC42 B&alpha=C&brand=Cultured+Care&brand_id=95969&private_brand=true)

simla

03-08-2010, 08:57 AM

Quite right, Cannibal. I meant selling in physical stores in other countries.

emearg

04-08-2010, 08:18 PM

I note a few more BioGuard reviews are up on Costco.com. They suggest that this product could become quite popular (via word of mouth at this stage) for dealing with problems other than seasonal colds. I am sure Blis/Frutatrom/Imagenetix will be aiming to do much better than just relying on word of mouth advertising.

Here are the last three reviews (out of only 7 (and all but one are very positive)):

Great prevention for the school year!
"I work in a middle school, so I am constantly exposed to germs etc.. I also have allergies and asthma. I started taking this product one month ago. I have to say I feel so good I have stopped taking all of my RX allergy meds. Amazing!! I will buy another bottle to get through the school year."

Miracle supplement!
"My four year old son has bad allergies, but can't tolerate any allergy medications. I have allergies as well. Since taking bioguard, my son's allergy symptoms have decreased drastically, he doesn't get sick all the time anymore, and he hasn't had to return to the allergist. I have also stopped getting recurring sinus infections! I hope Costco will always carry this product!

Really helpful product
"I have had sinus problems and all the side effects from sinus type medicines for almost 35 years. In 2 weeks this product got rid of the itchy throat, dry nose, bad breath and the list goes on. I also have asthma and it has helped that as well. It helped so much that I got my daughter and grandson on it. She is now taking it on a regular basis and has told others about it. Please keep selling it as a product!!!!"

I note that one of the others is also about sinus problems being resolved.

A blogger said several months ago that it looked like his sinus problems were resolved. They were for a few months, but he hasn't posted for a while. Perhaps he overdosed on the good stuff?
http://www.thingstheydontteachyou.com/

It will be interesting to see the marketing approach taken this northern hemisphere winter.

brucea

04-08-2010, 09:42 PM

Thanks Emearg for this information; one of the reasons I am such a big fan of the Blis K12 lozenges is (as I have probably said before ad nauseum!!) that I no longer get sinusitis and ear infections that almost always followed the common cold. In fact (and if this isn't judgement) I caught a bad cold that is doing the rounds in Akl last week before flying down to the Blis AGM in Dunedin, so I increased the daily dose of Throatguard lozenges as given on the packet and I have quickly recovered and (touch wood) no sinusitis or smelly breath. So much recovered that I was able to go to an intense aerobic Body Combat class at LM on Tue am ....ahhh blisful

tango

06-08-2010, 11:52 AM

Sorry to pour cold water on the enthusiasm for the product but I tried the Blis K12 lozenges in bulk for my sore throat caused by sinus infection and had no joy at all. I took 2 bottles of the lozenges (quite tasty!) as directed and no improvement. From memory there was a high strength version that I took

Was good to see a quick mention of Blis on What's Really in Our?

I'm still hanging in there with my shares but I don't know that I can see them moving much in the next 12 months

simla

06-08-2010, 09:42 PM

Market response for the next 12 months probably depends on the next financials in 2 or 3 months, Tango. If you do the maths, there is actually room for a happy result this time around, although no guarantee of course. If the result comes out pleasantly, then the shares may respond to additional news, such as Nestle planning on bringing out an infant food early next year, if they do, or Blis being granted GRAS plus an announcement of various ones taking it up. There are various product formats that could be announced too. You can never tell when Blis have some news coming. But a repeat of last time's financials would obviously dull interest though.

On the other hand, a rising share price is no use to an investor unless they are planning a short term sale, whereas a low price is obviously an opportunity to an investor who thinks he sees something that others are ignoring.

If the sinuses are troubling you often, I'd be inclined to keep it up for a few weeks with the Blis (if you haven't already, not clear.) A few places mention it on the net as being effective, and the sinuses are a complex, no-exit, low-circulation area that might take some time to get around. Of course, deciding Blis doesn't work on a sore throat is difficult because there's no knowing what would have happened otherwise. My daughter caught a cold for about a day recently though taking Blis, but told me that everyone at uni around her was home sick, and of course the hospitals are pretty busy with swine flu too. So did it work , and she only got a mild cold for a day? Or did it not work at all, and that was what she would have had anyway? Who knows.

simla

06-08-2010, 10:09 PM

By the way, not sure about the "12 months". The full year financials are due out in 9 months, and we'll be unlucky if those aren't interesting. There are a few significant market announcements due in that time we think, and the product will have been for sale for 7 months in several thousand stores across the US winter as well, plus hopefully some growth in other outlets and Asia. But who knows.

tango

10-08-2010, 08:49 AM

I tried it for as long as 2 bottles last but no improvement at all. I also used sinus rinses to wash out infection and there was no additional improvement from using the lozenges. It's a shame - I had high hopes from what I read about Blis

I agree a marketing arrangement with nestle is powerful - They are superb marketers - but I can't help thinking a short time frame with a company like BLT because they keep needing money to fund development and working capital. If they hadn't had a major cash infusion last year they would have negative cash flow. Much as I want to think long term I have to consider the possibility that they won't survive unless there is a significant improvement in income. The exchange rates won't be helping...

Bobby_Fischer

10-08-2010, 10:53 AM

Tango, the key thing is to start taking K12 as soon as you notice the first hint of a cold or flu - over the years I have found it very effective used in that mode. But, in my experience, once an infection becomes properly established the K12 won't stop it running its full course. I doubt it would be much help with a sinus infection anyway, because the K12, being ingested, can't easily get at the site of infection. I guess the idea there would be to stop the flu or cold that leads to the subsequent sinusitus.

brucea

10-08-2010, 01:08 PM

emearg

11-08-2010, 04:03 PM

weasel

11-08-2010, 07:16 PM

Another interesting BioGuard review:
5 stars
Works
"Our son takes chemo capsules on a daily basis and has an immune disorder because of it. He was always getting upper respiartory infections on a regular basis, but after taking Bioguard this seems to have cut down greatly on the infections. This is the 3rd bottle we have bought. Please do not stop carrying this product."

I wish that Imaginex would take a bit of time to put some effort into maintaining the BioGuard homepage. Although the overall message is relatively clear, there's nowhere to buy the stuff (buy now cosco link is broken). Also, the site has a bit of a "budget" look to it, and contains several typos. There's also this clanger: "it was first isolated from a child that had an incredible immune system including rare throat irritations." Not quite what they are meaning to say there.

emearg

11-08-2010, 09:50 PM

I wish that Imaginex would take a bit of time to put some effort into maintaining the BioGuard homepage. Although the overall message is relatively clear, there's nowhere to buy the stuff (buy now cosco link is broken). Also, the site has a bit of a "budget" look to it, and contains several typos. There's also this clanger: "it was first isolated from a child that had an incredible immune system including rare throat irritations." Not quite what they are meaning to say there.

Have you provided them with feedback? If not, and you don't want to let me know and I will do so.

Here is a link to contact them:
http://www.imagenetix.net/contact-us/

weasel

12-08-2010, 03:13 AM

Have you provided them with feedback? If not, and you don't want to let me know and I will do so.

Here is a link to contact them:
http://www.imagenetix.net/contact-us/

Good call - i'll send feedback.
wease

pietrade

12-08-2010, 02:21 PM

Recently I mentioned how since taking Blis Throatguard daily I had not had any of the usual ear infections that followed flu/colds. In my case I still get colds despite taking K12 but I recover quickly. Recently I caught a bad cold/flu that is doing the rounds and ended up with a left ear hearing impairment which I thought may have been the result of an inner ear infection. My GP has checked it out and said there was no evidence of infection and that the hearing impairment was temporary and would resolve soon - she said antibiotics would be a waste of time. I agree with Bobby in that K12 is NOT a magic bullet to deal with established sinus infections. I understand many antibiotics struggle to treat sinus infections anyway.

I've found Blis throatguard very useful but Calcium Ascorbate (easier on the stomach than plain Ascorbic Acid) is a REAL winner when the first signs of any cold or flu show up. I take a teaspoon-full of the powder up to 5 times over that day and that generally does the job. Sometimes a few more spoon-fulls daily, if I was a bit late getting on to it and symptoms are still present.

A recent article in the 'Herald' referred to research (at Otago?) where REALLY big doses of Vit C were being successfully used against some cancers and suggested that intravenious administration was envisaged - I guess because high-dose oral administration is limited by the tendency to loose bowel motions, once the body's 'limit-to- absorb' has been reached.

With no pharmaceutical patents involved, such an effective anti-biotic/anti-viral has remained pretty-well ignore it seems.

simla

12-08-2010, 10:19 PM

Some have probably already noticed this. http://www.pitchengine.com/us-capital-partners-inc-serves-as-sole-arranger-of-15-million-credit-facility-for-imagenetix-inc/81477/

"$1.5 Million Credit Facility for Imagenetix, Inc." "To support Imagenetix’s rapid expansion" "to eliminate Imagenetix’s working capital constraints and facilitate the company’s ongoing growth." To have arranged this in the current climate must mean they had some reasonable sales figures to show. But for Celadrin or Bioguard, or both? Either way, it appears to shows some strength in a BLT trading partner, so that's good. One of BLT's main strengths seems to be picking business associates who can perform.

simla

15-08-2010, 04:26 PM

mccollr

15-08-2010, 04:36 PM

I just stocked up on Blis at another chemist. (Yes, I know it's cheaper on the net, but real shops need supporting too.)

"Is Blis still selling?" "Oh, yes, DEFINITELY. It's VERY popular." Hopefully that's true elsewhere too.

Has anyone heard ads on the radio, as I don't listen very often? I've only seen it a couple of times in chemists' fliers this winter.

I have been asking the same questions in the Hutt Valley and getting the same reply.
I am now in the 100 club. I have told 100 people this winter about how good the Blis products are and I have 35 confirmed sales from those conversations. When people have a crook throat all they want is a solution Quick !!. After a short explanation on how Bils works they are off to the chemist. :-). Word of mouth is the best sales tool available and costs nothing.

emearg

15-08-2010, 05:27 PM

I just stocked up on Blis at another chemist. (Yes, I know it's cheaper on the net, but real shops need supporting too.)

"Is Blis still selling?" "Oh, yes, DEFINITELY. It's VERY popular." Hopefully that's true elsewhere too.

Has anyone heard ads on the radio, as I don't listen very often? I've only seen it a couple of times in chemists' fliers this winter.

That is good to hear Simla. I have seen it a number of times in various chemist fliers this year...much like last year. I have asked about it at a couple of chemists again this year and the responses are much more informed than they were just a couple of years ago. All good stuff but with just a few million people in little ole NZ it isn't going to allow us to retire any time soon. The US could be a different story...

Chippie

15-08-2010, 08:37 PM

I have heard a couple of adverts on the radio. I am pretty sure it was the sports radio channel 1503am.

simla

15-08-2010, 09:36 PM

Thanks for the feedback guys. I imagine the NZ marketing has been ramped up a certain amount, in line with sales growing a certain amount last year? If so, it should become more apparent each year. You're right about NZ being a small market, Emearg. But logically a million people should buy two bottles each a year anyway, because everybody worries about colds and flus. Eventually, we hope? Who knows. I'm sure they buy way more than that of paracetamol.

It will be interesting seeing how far it goes over the years. This is the traditional acceptance curve for new technology: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations Of course, there will presumably be other probiotics taking the market too. At the moment, for example, the word "probiotics" shows as a spelling mistake as I type, but that will change. Quickly or slowly? That's the question.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Diffusionofideas.PNG/500px-Diffusionofideas.PNG

Despite the heatwave presumably, Bioguard opens again in two weeks we're told. Mccollr, you seem to be the company's secret marketing weapon. I hope you have a plane booked to the States...

simla

19-08-2010, 11:25 AM

Here's an interesting snippet on natvd.com sales into Australia - presumably since that TV item.

http://www.ozchinese.com/bbs/redirect.php?tid=447644&goto=lastpost

Google translate says: "June began to produce BLIS-K12 Probiotics Canada chewing gum sold in Australia, crazy! Monthly sales over a thousand boxes! Australia is not meeting local product, only the network order Oh!".

Babelfish translates it as, "In June started Canada to produce the BLIS-K12 profit to live the fungus chewing gum to sell in Australia is insane! The month has sold thousand boxes! The Australian local product, only has not been able the network fixed purchase!!"

The link on the page goes to a 10 pack selling for 64 Canadian dollars, or single packs at CAD6.49. Which is a "box"?

simla

21-08-2010, 09:54 AM

Imagenetix released its June Quarter results. Sales revenue appears to have gone down each quarter for the last year, http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100816/iagx.ob10-q.html but they attribute this to changing to mass market outlets, losing sales via their old channels.

"The primary reasons for the sales decrease are a reduction in distributor sales as a result of the elimination of a supply agreement with one of our customers during the previous fiscal year and a reduction in weight loss product sales which have proven to be random offset by increases in sales of our own branded product, Celadrin(R), to the mass market and sales to our wholesale customers as follows:"

"Breakdown of net sales Three Months Ended June 30, [Wholesale plus Mass market increased from $533,626 2009 to $854,651 2010, whereas Distributors sales dropped from $1,168,664 2009 to $230,313 2010]"

Note how they describe Celadrin as their main sales driver. However, they mention Bioguard too:

"With the anticipated expansion to all Costco stores of both Celadrin(R) and BioGuard(R), the intial shipment of Celadrin(R) to 800 Walmart stores and the recent orders for BioGuard(R) to RiteAid stores, we anticipate mass market sales to become our leading revenue generator and provide improved sales during the balance of our current fiscal year."

In a separate press release, they say : http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Imagenetix-Inc-Reports-First-prnews-3703377165.html?x=0&.v=1

"Commenting on the results of the first quarter, Mr. William Spencer, Imagenetix Chief Executive Officer said: "Sales and earnings were negatively impacted from the company's investment and transition to our mass retail branded products – Celadrin softgels, Celadrin cream and BioGuard, our novel healthy immune system innovation. Forward looking, Imagenetix expects to reflect the benefits of its retail strategy in the form of sequentially and significantly stronger quarterly sales. Branded product shipments combined with favorable in-store turnover, gives us the confidence in our retail brand strategy and building both short and long term value for our shareholders."

Given the strong drop in their distributor sales, they'll be pretty keen to get the mass market working well. Happily they seem to have expanded that area nearly 60% last year, comparing June quarters, so they look like they know how to do it.

Unfortunately we have no way of reading into any of this how Bioguard went, as Celadrin is their main product.

simla

25-08-2010, 03:04 PM

Now, here's an interesting post from Imagenetix.

"Imagenetix, Inc. Provides Net Sales Guidance for the Second Quarter Fiscal 2011"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Imagenetix-Inc-Provides-Net-prnews-3974253456.html?x=0&.v=1

"Imagenetix, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board:IAGX.ob - News) announced today that based on solid bookings and sales activities in July and the first half of August that it expects its net sales for its second quarter of fiscal 2011 ending September 30, 2010, to be from $2.8 to $3.2 million, an increase of 158% to 195% compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2011 and 47% to 68% compared to the second quarter of the previous fiscal year.

"The first two months of our September ending quarter have progressed nicely as a result of shipments and bookings of our branded products in the mass market, Celadrin® and BioGuard®."

As always, we cannot tell what part Bioguard plays in this, as opposed to Celadrin, their main product to date. Of course, BLT have also already told us sales are looking up this half, which we might assume to be at least partly from stocking up for a launch in so many stores shortly (pages 3 & 4): http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20AGM%202010%20FINAL%2030%20July%2010.pdf

Either way, it's good to see a BLT business partner showing strength surely.

By the way, I put in an incorrect link in my previous post about IAGX previous quartlerly sales. The one showing quarters is : http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=iagx.ob

Bobby_Fischer

26-08-2010, 03:42 PM

New product launches are getting to be old hat for Blis, but this looks like another? http://www.protocolforlife.com/Products/ProductsAlphabetically/079926.htm

simla

29-08-2010, 07:41 AM

And another one, Bobby, " featuring BLIS K12M18™". http://www.gardenoflife.com/ProductsforLife/IMMUNEBALANCE/RapidExtraStrength/tabid/1992/Default.aspx

A press release on the site about who they are: http://www.gardenoflife.com/Portals/11/Files/Press%20Releases/Atrium%20Innovations%20Acquires%20Garden%20of%20Li fe.pdf

emearg

29-08-2010, 08:58 AM

Nice one guys. I reckon keep sharing with the group when you find a new product, especially the M18 products!

Here is the updated list. Sorry that it is getting so long ;-)

K12:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=49254&productnumber=49254&category=28

Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29949&productnumber=29949&category=12

Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

Imagenetix - Bioguard
http://bioguardhealth.com/

Solaray - Oral Flora
http://www.smartbomb.com/slr12698.html

VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-exec/product_id/57807/nm/Ear+Nose+and+Throat+Shield

LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Supplements/Item01300/Advanced-Oral-Hygiene.html

Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpages/pro-flora-oral-health/pro-flora-oral-health.html

Epoca
http://www.takachanmarket.com/products/detail.php?product_id=17325

Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
http://drsinatra.net/Products2.aspx?ProductID=BL12

True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™
http://www.truebotanica.com/store/product/TDR1001/TrueDefenseforKids.aspx

True Botanicas - True Defense for Adults
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm

Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
http://culturedcare.com/

KSS66
http://www.leonbio.com/goods.php?id=2

Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Daily)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=37&language=en

Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Boost)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_info.php?products_id=38&language=en

OralHealth PLUS
http://www.phytohealth.com.au/oral-probiotics.html

NOW OralBiotic
http://vitanetonline.com/description/N2921/vitamins/OralBiotic/

E.N.T Biotic
http://www.protocolforlife.com/Products/ProductsAlphabetically/079926.htm

Pro-S Daily Lozenges
http://www.lifeshop2u.com/en/product/hf_17.php

KForce

Aktiv-k12

Blis Throat Guard Daily
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Throat-Guard-Daily

Blis Throat Guard Boost
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Throat-Guard-Boost

Blis Travel Guard
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Travel-Guard

Blis Bio Restore
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Bio-Restore

Blis Fresh Breath Kit
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Fresh-Breath-Kit

Blis Rapid Eze Gargle
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BLIS-Products&p=Rapid-EZE-Gargle

M18:
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29948&productnumber=29948&category=12

Natures Plus - Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=4383&productnumber=4383&category=22

Includes K12 and M18:
Natures Plus - Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=1120

Natures Plus - Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=5224&productnumber=5224&category=29

Natures Plus - Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=5220&productnumber=5220&category=29

Natures Plus - Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?productNumber=4385

Natures Plus - POWER TEEN® For Him Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30002&productnumber=30002&category=11

Natures Plus - POWER TEEN® For Her Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30004&productnumber=30004&category=11

Natures Plus - POWER TEEN® Immune Booster Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=30006&productNumber=30006&category=11

Natures Plus - Source of Life® GOLD Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30711&productnumber=30711&category=15

Natures Plus - Source of Life® GOLD Vcaps
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30716&productnumber=30716&category=15

Natures Plus - Source of Life® GOLD Mini-Tabs
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30714&productnumber=30714&category=15

Natures Plus - Source of Life® GOLD Energy Shake - Tropical Berry (available in two product formats (can or packet))
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/whatsnewShell.asp?criteria=search&whatsnew=yes&searchVar=30748&productNumber=30748&category=15

Natures Plus - Source of Life® GOLD Chewables - Tropical Fruit
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=30719&productnumber=30719&category=15

Garden of Life - Immune Balance™ Rapid Extra Strength
http://www.gardenoflife.com/ProductsforLife/IMMUNEBALANCE/RapidExtraStrength/tabid/1992/Default.aspx

emearg

29-08-2010, 11:41 AM

"Garden of Life products are sold in nearly 12,000 U.S. health food and specialty retail outlets, including major chains as well as in thousands of independent stores..."

It is easy to forget the scale involved with the US. How many chemists in NZ are Blis products sold in?

It is pretty easy to understand why Blis have said the US is such an important market...

simla

29-08-2010, 12:22 PM

Thanks Emearg. Don't forget this probable one in Malaysia. Pro-S Daily Lozenges. http://www.lifeshop2u.com/en/product/hf_17.php Although it does not mention Blis in any way, it is the right sort of product, and also matches the tiny photo in the annual report, which states there is a product in Malaysia. I still haven't found anything likely in Singapore, although the last report said there was a product there too.

emearg

29-08-2010, 02:42 PM

Yes you are right Simla! The photo in the report has the same imagery and general layout but has some non-english components on the box. The link provided is English only but clearly they are the same. I have updated the list...

neopoleII

29-08-2010, 05:29 PM

hate to be a broken record saying the same thing over and over.............. but......
looking at this link posted by simla regarding k12m18 a few posts up.
and looking at the ingredience list and reading the write up, ""featuring BLIS K12M18™""
it all seems a bit like................ journolistic ramblings to score a sale on what is basically vitamins with a dash of k12.
whats the point of m18 in this product?...... besides sounding really cool for a punter?

if i was online and found this webpage selling k12m18 i woundnt buy it.
let alone for the fact that there is only 20mg of it in the pill and is at the bottom of the list.
as some of you know im in deep in blis........ to the point it has cost me a change in my personal lifestyle for the worse,
but am still hanging in there, but this articale just proves that blis k12 and m18 is a sideline gimic that is a suplimentry ingredient on obscure pills and potions sold on online phamacies around the world.

not until k12 or m18 is the prioritory ingredient in products and has "real world" companies promoting blis products....... will blis become a real company with genuine growth prospects that investors will invest in heavily.

i have said these things year after year for many many years......... re the broken record!
and i say again......... i do believe in the products and potencial but..............
not until the fda confirms the findings of k12 or m18 will this company release its potencial.

nestle is a world power............but......
nothing yet.

it will happen......... and it will take the world by storm,
but we are ways of that yet.

ps....... dont judge my spelling
i have a tooth ache and i cant get m18 in NZ
but i do like looking at the growing lists of links and reading the pages.
what i also do is go to the home pages and then search for products looking for cough and breath remidies.
if you try this........... you will see that blis is not that big on the world scene.

especially when a normal person in alabama is trying to find a remidy for a sore throat or smelly breath.

names that come to mind for mrs alabama are colgate and strepcils.
but i have to say......... i honestly thought blis would of folded by now........... instead..... its holding its ground and !!!! moving forwards.

so that is positive.

there is hope for a broken record like me to one day make the biggest investment of my life break even or make me rich.

rambled long enough.......... sore tooth.

emearg

29-08-2010, 07:49 PM

hate to be a broken record saying the same thing over and over.............. but......
looking at this link posted by simla regarding k12m18 a few posts up.
and looking at the ingredience list and reading the write up, ""featuring BLIS K12M18™""
it all seems a bit like................ journolistic ramblings to score a sale on what is basically vitamins with a dash of k12.
whats the point of m18 in this product?...... besides sounding really cool for a punter?
There are lots of broken records on here N2. Some fore and some against. I am a broken record in the fore camp :-)

The marketing with this one is aimed at people who don't want facts, figure or evidence. Just nice words. Some of the other products stress the science etc. Some peoples little eyes will glaze over very quickly with that approach.

if i was online and found this webpage selling k12m18 i woundnt buy it.
let alone for the fact that there is only 20mg of it in the pill and is at the bottom of the list.

But that is plenty? Gram or kilograms aren't required for efficacy?

I am sure Blis is happy with products coming out that have that much per lozenge. Some of the other products have far less.

From a shareholder point of view the question how much do they sell it for per 2kg bag...if in fact it is sold in those quantities. Perhaps gold traders or cocaine dealers don't sell a lot of their product but it is worth a lot in very small quantities. I would guess bacteria are similar...

as some of you know im in deep in blis........ to the point it has cost me a change in my personal lifestyle for the worse,
but am still hanging in there, but this articale just proves that blis k12 and m18 is a sideline gimic that is a suplimentry ingredient on obscure pills and potions sold on online phamacies around the world.

Bugger. Most of us have had some of that in the last year or three. I won't name mine...

not until k12 or m18 is the prioritory ingredient in products and has "real world" companies promoting blis products....... will blis become a real company with genuine growth prospects that investors will invest in heavily.

Yup, that will be a turning point. Fingers X'ed then...

I hope your tooth/teeth feel better soon!

emearg

03-09-2010, 07:14 PM

Here is another new product:

Ora-Probiotic
http://pureencapsulation.com/itemdy00.asp?T1=OPB6

emearg

04-09-2010, 04:32 PM

The boys at Natures Plus have been busy and have introduced another batch of new products including two more that include small doses of both K12 and M18.

Natures Plus - Source of Life® Animal Parade® GOLD Children's Chewable Multi - Cherry Flavor
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?productNumber=29931

Natures Plus - Miracle Essentials™ Tablets -- Multi-Vitamin Boosting Supplement
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productDetail.asp?productNumber=32962

simla

05-09-2010, 05:06 PM

Good stuff, Emearg.

Bobby_Fischer

07-09-2010, 03:26 PM

Looks like Dr Katz is selling Cultured Care gum (rebadged as Aktiv-K12, of course) http://www.therabreath.com/productdetail.asp?cat=22&pid=410

emearg

07-09-2010, 05:17 PM

Looks like Dr Katz is selling Cultured Care gum (rebadged as Aktiv-K12, of course) http://www.therabreath.com/productdetail.asp?cat=22&pid=410

And at twice the price you can get the original. Nice markup if he can flog it!

blissfool

08-09-2010, 09:04 PM

simla

10-09-2010, 07:46 AM

For my own part, I see Blis as a complex company with many projects on the boil - K12, M18, supplements, GRAS, multiple countries, multiple formats (gum, lozenge ...), breath, immune, winter. Income and expenses would have to be understood for each project in order to guess a total net result each half.

I haven't myself detected an overall trend yet. No guesses from me, sorry.

Bobby_Fischer

10-09-2010, 11:36 AM

Bobby_Fischer

10-09-2010, 11:48 AM

Interesting graphic here http://www.blisk12.com/category/press-releases Anyone spot any new products? I think "Raw Cleanse" is new?

Bobby_Fischer

10-09-2010, 11:52 AM

And there's plenty more good stuff to "chew on". A sense of momentum is building. What a different company in the three years since Barry took over.

simla

10-09-2010, 01:13 PM

Very good, Bobby. And on the formulators page, "Ideal [for] a range of functional food applications such as: Yoghurt, Ice Cream, Others". That will require GRAS to complete, of course. Also new pages on facebook and twitter and youtube for BlisK12, as opposed to Blis Technologies. Also, presumably the new slogan: "BlisK12, Protecting the Gateway to Your Body's Health."

All up, this site has a very satisfactory feel to it. Understated yet reassuring.

Bobby_Fischer

10-09-2010, 02:40 PM

Hi Simla. They must be reasonably confident where GRAS is concerned - why else risk specifiying edibles (without qualification) as potential applications to formulators?

To me this website represents the start of "phase 2" of the Frutarom marketing campaign - now that there are a reasonable number of credible early adopters, use that leverage to promote K12 as a ubiquitous ingredient. Frutarom appear to be very successful at what they do, so my expectations for what Blis can ultimately achieve are quietly rising. So very, very different to 3 years ago, when I had almost given up all hope.

pierre

10-09-2010, 05:04 PM

Interesting!

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2594911

simla

10-09-2010, 06:48 PM

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/announcements/3535369/SSH-Accident-Compensation-Corporation March 2010.

emearg

10-09-2010, 07:10 PM

Interesting graphic here http://www.blisk12.com/category/press-releases Anyone spot any new products? I think "Raw Cleanse" is new?

It is new to me too Bobby.

We picked up the other Garden of Life product recently. I wonder if there are others?

emearg

10-09-2010, 07:43 PM

Anyone got a guestimate on first quarter sales?
The winter sales in NZ and Austrailia?
What is happening with the Nestle relationship, there was supposed to be a review later in the year?
There seems to be lots of chinese whispers about sales and good noise, but no facts.

You want facts and you want us to guess sales?

Have a read through the AGM presenentation. It is the closest thing we have to facts and it may answer your questions.

emearg

10-09-2010, 07:55 PM

BLIS' new international website has gone live - www.blisk12.com Guess who owns the domain name for this site? Good old Dr Katz - he's been squatting on it since 2003/4 I seem to recall when Therabreath first got involved with Blis. I wonder what "rent" Dr Katz is getting for his "trouble"?

Haven't had much of a look yet but seems pretty professional looking.

It looks pretty good to me. Quite a lot of repetition, but for a newbie reader that is probably quite a good thing. It will be interesting to see how it develops content wise.

Educating consumers as the next step seems a sensible approach to me...

blissfool

10-09-2010, 09:27 PM

You want facts and you want us to guess sales?

Have a read through the AGM presenentation. It is the closest thing we have to facts and it may answer your questions.

I had a good look thru the AGM presentation, just like I have done over the past 8 years and although thier seems to be a higher degree of optimism and alot of irons in the fire this year. Still waiting for some news that will impact on the SP, The lack of updates to the market is frustrating. Website looks good. Bliss is a great product I have used it since it first went on sale, after a friend was involved in a trail while at Otago and recommended it, never been sick in that time.

simla

11-09-2010, 08:32 AM

Blissfool, none of us knows what will happen next. The thing does indeed look hopeful, but it is a complex situation and the proof will only lie in the pudding. Things might motor along quite quickly now, especially if GRAS opens up the food market. Or the product may yet turn out to be of only relatively minor interest to the market, now that finally consumers are getting to vote with their purchasing power dollars.

Personally I'm still feeling good here. And those SSH notices above show that the ACC is still accumulating despite the price being somewhat higher now than when they got their first stake at the rights issue.

But we have no more facts than you because this thing is unsettled. It is still a new product in a new market segment, and being sold by a new company too. The company cannot tell us how this will end either for the same reason. Pretty obviously the company would not be going to this much trouble if they thought it was going to end badly, on the other hand.

Psychologically, this is a very interesting time for investors. The question for every share is surely always the same: would I buy this today? There's some big stuff happening, stuff we've been waiting a long time to hear, but slow turnover on the share market suggests that investors just don't know what their answer is to that question presently. Very interesting.

simla

16-09-2010, 10:49 AM

There is another product in Japan. Biotect: http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-home&trurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tpml-jp.com%2Foriginal.html&lp=ja_en&btnTrUrl=Translate Biotect is described as "for Dentistry Hospital", for "environmental improvement in the mouth cavity" (translations). That page lists it at 37,800 Yen for 2 months supply.

Our understanding of progress in Asia so far seems to be this, judging from Blis reports, and what can be seen on the net:

In Japan, Epoca has been around for a while and is visible on a number of web sites. It seems specifically aimed at bad breath. Biotect seems aimed at dentists, and aims at oral health. The last annual report told us, "Further progress has been made in Japan by Frutarom Asia. There are now two products in the Japanese market with several products in the final stages of product development. It is anticipated some of these new products will be launched in the next twelve months."

In Taiwan, KSS66 seems to aim at oral health and mentions sore throat, and mentions antimicrobial action. KSS66 is visible on a number of web sites now. Also some NZ Blis products are available on some websites.

In Malaysia, Pro-S Daily Lozenge talks of "sore throats, coughs and general cold symptoms, featuring antibiotic properties". I can only see this on two web sites so far. It currently lists for 24 Malaysian Ringgits, about 10 NZD, for maybe a box of 30 tablets. (It doesn't actually mention Blis or K12, but seems to match the photo in the last Blis report.)

In Korea, the Korean FDA application status changed a while ago, but has recently added the words "For functional copy of the company is reviewing the proposed functionality." (translation) So there is some sort of progress there. The last Blis report said they could give no firm indication of time scale in Korea.

In Singapore, the last annual report says a product is for sale, but I cannot find it on the net.

In China, the last report tells us "A submission for regulatory approval was made to the Chinese authorities in early 2010 and a response is awaited on this application. Good progress has been made with the establishment of manufacturing and marketing channels."

The last report also told us, "In addition business development projects are in progress in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and in India. Early progress in some of these markets, such as Indonesia will be subject to regulatory approval."

Things don't seem to yet be in the more advanced retail phase as in the US, but that's a pretty impressive list. Asia is a big place, with many cultures and languages, and regulatory regimes. I shall certainly be watching Asian progress with much interest.

emearg

16-09-2010, 04:56 PM

Keep up the good work Simla. I for one appreciate it.

There are 127 million people in Japan....

simla

19-09-2010, 05:03 PM

Is this the product for sale in Singapore perhaps? Blis Throat Guard itself?

This outlet is in Singapore, and the web page was last modified in March according to my browser, which may or may not be true.

It says, "First probiotic lozenges in Singapore market that helps to support upper respiratory function & oral health; & reduce flu-like symptoms." "over 2 million doses sold worldwide."

http://www.naturesfarm.com/whatsnew.asp#BLIS
http://www.naturesfarm.com/images/BLIS Web pg.jpg

emearg

21-09-2010, 07:14 PM

It seems that BioGuard is no longer available on Costco.com My old link no longer works, and a search returns nothing.

Looking on http://bioguardhealth.com/ their link has changed from Costco.com to showing that the product is now available at Costco Wholesale and Rite Aid.

Seems odd that it has been withdrawn from the website?

Time will tell...

simla

21-09-2010, 07:38 PM

It's disappeared from the website before, Emearg, and then reappeared a day or two later. It is interesting though that they have substituted a link to the stores themselves on the bioguardhealth site. Maybe supply is stretched?

It's good that they've now added Riteaid to the bioguardhealth website. They presumably would not have done that unless it was actually available there now. But it doesn't show up on the Riteaid website search either. Too many limits to what we can see via the net only.

And, hey, you didn't admire my Singapore find! Think about it. The page is in English, is one of thousands of pages with "Blis Throat Guard", and doesn't contain the word Singapore (it's all jpegs). Not an easy find.

Cannibal

23-09-2010, 02:40 PM

Well done on all the detective work chaps. The plan to conquer the world continues.

No idea if they have just put this up or not -
http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11597325&search=`bioguard&topnav=&Mo=0&cm_re=1_en-_-Top_Left_Nav-_-Top_search&lang=en-US&Nr=P_CatalogName:BC&N=5000043&whse=BC&Dx=mode%20matchallpartial&Ntk=Text_Search&Dr=P_CatalogName:BC&Ne=4000000&D=`bioguard&Ntt=`bioguard&No=0&Nty=1&Ntx=mode%20matchallpartial

emearg

23-09-2010, 06:35 PM

simla

23-09-2010, 08:58 PM

It's a repackaging of the product. The old one was 75 tablets for $18.99, and this one is 90 tablets for $15.99.

That would seem good news. The traditional reason for bringing the price down is that sales are picking up and you can afford to bring the price down and still increase your profit. Perhaps they saw this recently: "Kindle Sales Jump Significantly on Price Cut"! http://www.mobilemarketingwatch.com/kindle-sales-jump-significantly-on-price-cut-7968/

fungus pudding

23-09-2010, 09:04 PM

simla

23-09-2010, 09:24 PM

Maybe, Fungus Pudding. But then you wouldn't be bringing in new packaging as well, as you would have old product to sell.

The bottle now says "90 Chewable Tablets", where it used to just say "Chewable Tablets". Also, the old Bioguard TV ad shows the bottle reading "Ear, Nose and Throat Care", whereas it now says "Daily Immune Support". (I imagine that means a new TV ad too maybe?) That change is probably to fit in with Blis K12's market positioning, but presumably they hope it will mean Bioguard will not be taken off the shelves at the end of winter this time too? The text on the Costco page now includes the words "the mouth, "gateway to your health"", echoing the Blisk12.com motto of "Protecting the Gateway to Your Body's Health."

I'm sorry, but I'm definitely seeing this one as good news.

fungus pudding

23-09-2010, 09:33 PM

simla

23-09-2010, 09:56 PM

"As price decreases in the elastic range, [total revenue] increases, but in the inelastic range, [total revenue] decreases. " http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand

Is this product in the elastic or inelastic phase? Will sales revenue respond to price changes, in other words? Considering that there is some fairly well constructed marketing going on here, I'm sure they have considered that question carefully.

emearg

24-09-2010, 05:18 PM

The marketing has improved with this change of focus...in my opinion.

Their product is now much better value for money than it was before in comparision to other K12 products.

It should help sales. I don't see it as bad news. Imagenetix are either responding to feedback or just trying to improve the appeal of their product or a combination of the two. That is good. Better than a company that launches a product and then refuses to refine it because THEY think it is good enough as it is.

We will just have to wait for the half year figures before getting too excited either way.

mr.needs

24-09-2010, 05:58 PM

emearg

25-09-2010, 05:12 PM

It is new since my posting because searching now returns the page you provided.

All previous product reviews have gone which is a pity.

The product reviews are back.

emearg

25-09-2010, 05:14 PM

simla

25-09-2010, 08:14 PM

Each bottle contains 20% more product => 20% boost in revenue for BLIS!

Yes, a very good point.

simla

25-09-2010, 08:18 PM

The marketing has improved with this change of focus...in my opinion.

1. Assembling Bricks

We are starting to see bricks being assembled for strong end-consumer marketing. The web site looks well constructed and well presented. Various players have agreed to come on board for a joint site like this. Bioguard have seemingly repackaged to match the marketing, and the Costco webpage likewise reworded to match. A slogan (Protecting the Gateway to Your Body's Health) appears to have been chosen, and feels like it has good mileage in it. The Blis K12 logo is starting to appear on things. Probably other things are happening.

This reminds me of how we watched as the bricks got assembled over the last year or two into having a good foundation of formulators and brand managers etc using the product. The bricks kept being added to, with a very impressive result. And more bricks are even now still being added, of course.

2. Customer Value Proposition.

I'm particularly pleased to see the message "Protecting the Gateway to Your Body's Health", because I think it is vital to have a message that consumers can easily understand and see the value in. In marketing, this is called the CVP, or Customer Value Proposition.

Wiki says of that, "A good customer value proposition will provide convincing reasons why a customer should buy a product, and also differentiate your product from competitors." Also, "In order to achieve objectives, a customer value proposition needs to be clear, concise and compelling."

Spot on, and I think this new message fulfills that pretty well. I haven't personally felt the CVP has been especially concisely worded up till now, but I feel that this statement IS clear, IS concise, and IS compelling. I'm impressed with it. As Wiki also says, "Gaining a customers’ attention and approval will help in [building] sales faster and more profitability, as well as work to increase market share." I would certainly hold high hopes that this slogan is worth money in the bank.

Excellent.

simla

25-09-2010, 08:26 PM

We will just have to wait for the half year figures before getting too excited either way.

Progress continues to grow, to judge by the news we are seeing.

There are now nine reviews on Costco, for example. And here's 11 very positive reviews for the LEF Advanced Oral hygiene. http://www.iherb.com/Life-Extension-Advanced-Oral-Hygiene-60-Veggie-Mint-Lozenges/18019/?at=1&p=1&sr=1&fr=&l=ko

Distribution grows well. In addition to the several thousand stores we believe to be currently selling Bioguard, there are presumably several thousand more selling other supplement products?

And end-consumer marketing is being assembled as we watch.

Plus we've been told that sales YTD were looking promising as of the last AGM.

All good. But what we don't know is the relative growth of the expenses compared to the growth of the revenue. The new marketing will be costing of course. And the GRAS work will be costing, as will the work complying in Europe and other places. And launching M18 will cost something too. Plus the company usually has other things on the boil.

With so much progress in placing K12 in the marketplace now, it seems reasonable that it won't be too much longer before the sales revenue grows faster than the expansion expense grows. Has that already happened or will it be later?

Ah! Who Knows!

As you say, hard to know what the next results will reveal. And usually the news is as interesting as the financials, too.

blissfool

26-09-2010, 11:19 AM

Also, a drop in retail price doesn't constitute a drop in the price BLIS receives for its ingredient sales. Each bottle contains 20% more product => 20% boost in revenue for BLIS! A drop in Imagenetix's margin isn't a drop in BLIS' margin.

While I like your thinking mr needs, I would imagine that both parties have taken a hit on there Margin to increase revenue, trade is still differcult around the world and most retailers are endevouring to preserve more profit out of every sale and pushing back on their suppliers to get better costing. If sales are tough you need to grow your margin to pay the bills. Sorry I remain pessamistic on this.

emearg

26-09-2010, 11:36 AM

While I like your thinking mr needs, I would imagine that both parties have taken a hit on there Margin to increase revenue, trade is still differcult around the world and most retailers are endevouring to preserve more profit out of every sale and pushing back on their suppliers to get better costing. If sales are tough you need to grow your margin to pay the bills. Sorry I remain pessamistic on this.

An interesting point blissfool. Two things to remember here:

1) Frutatrom is the supplier of ingredient to Imagenetix so the pricing relationship is between those two parties and not Blis so while it is possible that Frutatrom may have reduced their margin that doesn't mean that Blis has. It doesn't mean they haven't either!

2) The cost of including K12 in a product is only a few cents. We did have figures at some point but I forget exactly what they are. So it seems unlikely that just because Imagenetix have reduced their retail price that this will effect Frutatroms take, or Blis's.

To me it seems more likely that Imagenetix have compared their product pricing with competitors and seen that they were pretty expensive in comparision. I buy a 50 lozenge product with zinc and vitamin C and it costs $7.79 US. That is still better value than Imagenetixs new offering, but not by quite so much...

The other thing to keep in mind is that there is also a retailer in the mix. Their cut may have changed with the new lower price.

Oh, the other thing is that the Blis financials show their bacteria are high margin so they could take a hit on the margin if that was offset by higher volumes and Blis would still be better off.

simla

27-09-2010, 01:29 PM

Here's outside evidence of Riteaid selling Bioguard. This page http://slickdeals.net/forums/showthread.php?sduid=0&p=32649081 says it is for Riteaid for October.

This seems to be a scan of a printed flyer for October 2010. On page 3 it shows a rebate of $6.99 for Bioguard, only in the week starting Oct 17, 2010, maximum one packet. The packet seems to be 30 tablets. Actual price not specified. http://a.slickdeals.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=413593&d=1284928754 If you have difficulty clicking on that, go through the page above.

So it will have a bit of a push at Riteaid for the start of the cough and cold season. I don't know why everybody's getting so gloomy when things seem to be unfolding about as well as we might hope.

simla

27-09-2010, 03:20 PM

Actually, it's more interesting than that. If you look at page 3 more carefully, it says "FEEL BETTER FOR FREE!* *Plus applicable sales tax". The page has a big title, "Cough and Cold Freebates." And under the Bioguard bit it says, "Purchase Price Will Be Refunded (up to $6.99). Sales tax excluded." Page 2 seems to be freebates for the first week, and page 3 freebates for the second week - just 12 different products each week.

Which appears to tell us two things. The likely price is seemingly $6.99 for a packet of 30, which might attract some customers. And the trial offer in that week in October is seemingly : free for the first one! Which might attract a few customers too. They have to mail in for the rebate though.

That's a bold move, if I've read that right: an attractively low sales price for 30 tablets, and a give-away promotion. I may not have read it right though, as I'm not part of that culture. And assuming the scanned document really is of something that will be sent out.

emearg

27-09-2010, 04:52 PM

Which appears to tell us two things. The likely price is seemingly $6.99 for a packet of 30, which might attract some customers. And the trial offer in that week in October is seemingly : free for the first one! Which might attract a few customers too. They have to mail in for the rebate though..

Free apart from sales tax. Good to see what could be seen as a decent push for a new product at RiteAid. And of course Blis will get revenue for the product even if it eats into RiteAid and Imagenetix's marketing budgets. Maybe not full revenue, but certainly some!

emearg

27-09-2010, 04:56 PM

I don't know why everybody's getting so gloomy when things seem to be unfolding about as well as we might hope.

Considering things are getting better and better for Blis if anybody who currently holds them and is feeling down on their Blis shares now never should have bought them in the first place! Growing sales, shrinking losses, an excellent distributor, good uptake by manufacturers, plenty of potential for bigger things if GRAS/Nestle happen and plenty of cash in the bank paint a much brighter picture than ever before.

If anybody wants to dump their shares off market PM me and I will give be happy to give you a very low price, but at least you won't have to worry about your Blis shares anymore!!

simla

27-09-2010, 10:00 PM

Here's a detailed image of the Bioguard version for Riteaid: https://offers.rebateplus.com/images/rebateimages/period126/21raOCT.png Bioguard's not on their website yet but is on their rebate page: https://riteaid.rebateplus.com/RebateListPage.asp?categories=13

And here's one person's discussion of Riteaid Freebates. Freebates and Rebates are "in your weekly circular (mailed out and in baskets near the front entrance of the stores)." "If you haven’t taken advantage of this program, you really should!" "I find that the RiteAid stores will sell out of these items on the first or second day of the week (their weekly sales begin on Sundays and run through Saturday). They do not stock up a large inventory for these rebate items. The early bird gets the early worm, so I suggest going on Sunday to snag your “free” items." http://frugalfriends.wordpress.com/2009/01/23/riteaid-single-check-rebates/

I don't know how the economics of Freebates work, but obviously it will have been thought through carefully, and others have tried it already. So I presume it works. Clearly there are a lot of rebates advertised in the US, but I sense from the internet that people do love the Freebates quite a bit and look out for them.

I would imagine a fair number of companies would give a lot to be sitting there on Riteaid's promotion sheet like that - one of only a handful of winter items that have headline space on Riteaid's promos for October. Wiki tell us that: Riteaid is a Fortune 500 company; the largest drugstore chain on the East Coast and the third largest drugstore chain in the U.S.; the largest pharmacy chain in California, with more than 600 stores there; had revenue of $26.3 billion in 2009; has 4,780 stores; and employs 109,000 associates.

All up, it looks like they did well getting that placement.

Klink

28-09-2010, 09:15 AM

I wonder how Blis is getting on with Nestle http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/28/business/global/28nestle.html?_r=1&hpw

weasel

29-09-2010, 10:09 AM

http://www.orabrush.com/

thoughts? (esp. regarding promotional/advertising aspects)

simla

29-09-2010, 01:10 PM

Presumably you mean because it seems to have achieved this through "going viral". http://www.orabrush.com/press/ http://www.orabrush.com/press/story And if this link is correct, then there are certainly interesting ways through this whole social media phenomenon. http://www.insidefacebook.com/2009/05/27/orabrush-buys-11-million-kisses-fans-marketers-actively-bidding-for-facebook-pages/

Blis are on facebook and twitter and youtube, so I think we can safely assume they are aware of this sort of phenomenon. However, I'm sure marketing departments all over the world are trying to achieve this all the time. It doesn't mean it's easy! How many kids out there are trying to get overnight fame like Justin Bieber did, too? And Andrew Lloyd Webber's musicals look pretty easy to do, but nobody else seems to have managed it yet!

Also, the brand implications of things like going viral are not clear yet. Does sudden fame sit well with long term success? I don't think people know that sort of thing yet.

Very interesting though, and I'm sure Orabrush are happy.

neopoleII

29-09-2010, 06:47 PM

just has a look on youtube for blis.
found a few songs and kissing stuff, then searched for blis 12 and a few vids of prof tag came up, all the vids totaled about 5000 views over the last few years.

maybe they should make a vid showing a cute babe with a big tounge and then zoom into lots of good bugs dancing away in her mouth.
sort of like the original cartoon ads they used to show...... but with the addition of a cute babes mouth.
but alas blis is controlled by goggled eyed bearded doctors.

might ask my missus to deep throat my video camera and pan out to her holding a bottle of k12
she can wear a low cut nurse outfit, and say to the camera......" if you want to kiss you have to bliss"

im sure that would get a few more hits than old prof tag.

but not as many as i would get if i asked my missus to suck a camera.

soo.......

back to starchy doctor advertising i guess.

Vtrader

29-09-2010, 07:51 PM

A different BLT thought.
EWT wave 2 about now, wave 3 upside to somewhere near 14cps.
I have been off the mark before, this is what I see here.
Anyone aware of pending news?
Perhaps one of the BLT developments is about to announce good news...
V.
Disc: Holding a small 'total loss' BLT position.

simla

30-09-2010, 10:34 AM

Sorry Vtrader, but I've just never been able to convince myself about Elliot Wave Theory and technical analysis. That's just my personal view though, and I know that there are very many ardent followers of it, and I'm not knocking it in any way.

But if you're looking for waves, I'd have thought you would get a very different picture by looking at a one year BLT chart or a two year chart.

Personally I'm a value investor, and I think a fair number on this group would be the same (though certainly not all) - where value investing in my case is the idea that the share is undervalued for the long term. I'd probably run with Warren Buffet's "finding an outstanding company at a sensible price", although I like his idea of long-term sustainable growth more. In any case, my focus is future cash flow from retaining shares, not selling them. Some will say that is inefficient, but I look at the story of the tortoise and the hare, and also at the apparent fact that the most successful investors in the world hang on to what they've got - while countries like NZ beggar themselves by constantly selling things the moment they go up in price a bit.

However, others may have something to add. It's an interesting view of the situation.

Vtrader

30-09-2010, 08:04 PM

Simla,
I am only learning the EWT, and for my own part find it useful to put in writing what I think at a particular time. Helps me with understanding the value of the EWT.
When I first entered the sharemarket i read around and this thread took my interest. So much is said here, and indicative of much activity from BLT.
All this activity should sometime turn hugely profitable, on the understanding of course that there are sufficient people that invest in their health as opposed to the masses that only invest when they are 'sick'.
Your position is comendable, and I would like to think that I will hold for a long time also...
V.

simla

01-10-2010, 02:08 PM

The AGM presentation told us, "BLIS M18 is to be officially launched in the US in September 2010. BLIS to attend major trade show – Supply Side West." That show is on Oct 19-23, and presumably K12 will be there too.

However, here's Blis K12 at a large Japanese trade fair on 13-15 October http://www.hijapan.info/eng/companylist/detail.php?exid=H10133469&page=index

This page said last year, "Health Ingredients (Hi) Japan 2009 is the leading food ingredients exhibition in Asia by far" http://www.thomex.com/trade-events/health-ingredients-japan-2009-1332.html

The organisers' own page http://www.hijapan.info/eng/info/hi.html says, "Hi Japan is now established as a global event with strong international participation in the show", and "The show is an annual 'must attend' event for every manufacturer, company or brand involved in the health ingredients industry. Hi Japan has been the leading industry trade show delivering a worldwide audience of health ingredients professionals."

Could be promising for progress in Asia.

emearg

01-10-2010, 07:33 PM

The AGM presentation told us, "BLIS M18 is to be officially launched in the US in September 2010. BLIS to attend major trade show – Supply Side West." That show is on Oct 19-23, and presumably K12 will be there too.

Blis K12 has been advertised at Frutatroms stand for ages now. Still no mention of M18.
Check http://www.supplysideshow.com/west/search/listing.asp?listing=30612

mr.needs

08-10-2010, 12:09 PM

Not a lot of love for BLT today

simla

08-10-2010, 02:56 PM

Yes. But he laughs last, etc. Blis are really starting to make some strides in the market now. Either they will pay off nicely soon, or people selling out now will prove to have been right.

The last annual report told us http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20Annual%20Report%202010%20Part%202%20of%204. pdf

"a loss [for year to March 2010] from trading activities, excluding financing costs, of $99k... [including] a write-down of $73k for redundant inventory of packaging and non-active ingredients."
"Revenue for the year increased by 64% ... Product sales have increased by 103%"
"NZ revenue has increased by 31%"
"[there was] licensing revenue due to an agreement with a global consumer company, a relationship which is subject to confidentiality provisions."
"The emphasis continues on the development of key business relationships and the establishment of partnerships with companies with substantial regional and global marketing reach."
"Frutarom, in conjunction with the Company, is now actively implementing marketing strategies in Asia/Pacific with products either having being launched, or in the final stages with a particular emphasis on Japan, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore and Malaysia. Business development projects are also in progress in other markets in Asia."
"The long-term strategy involves strategic relationships with Nestle Nutrition and other leading global consumer products companies."
"In addition to the existing R&D agreements between [Blis and Nestle], a new agreement has been reached with Nestlé Nutrition to consider another development application."
"The clinical trial undertaken by Nestlé Nutrition is scheduled for completion in 2010. If the outcome of this clinical trial is successful, it is anticipated that royalty payments could be generated in 2011."
"Company staff have attended industry tradeshows in the United States throughout the year where formal presentations are made to industry audiences. In addition, Prof John Tagg has also assisted with media presentations in North America. The Company has also placed numerous press releases into the US market, which continues to help to build both brand identity and reputation as a major technology company in the oral care sector."
"[In Japan, it] is anticipated some ... new products will be launched in the next twelve months."
"In Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia the first products have been launched in the market. In addition business development projects are in progress in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and in India. Early progress in some of these markets, such as Indonesia will be subject to regulatory approval."

The last AGM presentation http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20AGM%202010%20FINAL%2030%20July%2010.pdf told us that:

30 products now carry K12 or M18;.
5000 stores were due to be carrying Bioguard nationwide now.
YTD sales of K12 then were 600k as ingredients.
YTD sales of M18 were 200k then.
M18 was to be launched in September, and will be at Supply Side West in a couple of weeks.
They are looking to have GRAS by the end of this year.
Nestle are currently evaluating the K12 trials.

In a press release at the time of the AGM http://blis.co.nz/userfiles/file/BLIS%20PR%20AGM%202010%20Final%20(3).pdf we were told:

"[The] Company was entering a new phase in commercial development in the United States and Canada ... toward communicating the benefit of the BLIS probiotic directly to consumers. The Company, in partnership with its North American distributor Frutarom, is building a new consumer-focused website to support US consumers. An on-going public relations campaign is also being developed to support the marketing effort, towards the retail consumer."

We have also found on the net since then:

K12 will be at Hi Japan, "the leading food ingredients exhibition in Asia by far" http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=321509&viewfull=1#post321509
The new web site is up, including talking a stack of manufacturers to join in with it by the look of it. http://www.blisk12.com/
A Customer Value Proposition has been constructed http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=320812&viewfull=1#post320812
Riteaid will sell a $6.99 version of Bioguard, and Riteaid are offering Bioguard for free for one week with Freebates shortly. http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=320900&viewfull=1#post320900
Bioguard repackaged the product a bit for Costco. http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11597325
A new product in Japan, and a description of general progress in Asia here: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=319446&viewfull=1#post319446
Here's a list of the 43 products carrying Blis that we've found so far, and we've found a few more since then http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5122-BLT-(Blis)&p=317346&viewfull=1#post317346

(This was a slightly complex post. I've made reasonable efforts to ensure the links and quotes are correct, but obviously anyone should check for themselves before relying on anything.)

Of course, the future is still uncertain, and the company still has expansion costs, but you'll gather it wasn't me selling today!

pierre

08-10-2010, 03:33 PM

Of course, the future is still uncertain, and the company still has expansion costs, but you'll gather it wasn't me selling today!

Actually - a great bit of selling by you today Simla - well done!

simla

08-10-2010, 07:02 PM

Thanks. But I wasn't trying to sell anyone, just carrying on the discussion.

I suppose I may as well add my periodic statement: I am only here to discuss things, and I am never advising anybody to buy, sell, or trade in anything at all. That is for each person to decide entirely for themselves.

neopoleII

08-10-2010, 07:30 PM

i like your last post very much simla,
you have hi lighted the last year or so very well, and it all reads and looks like blt has are great future.......... which it does.........
just wish joe public could see the same thing.
as you guys know........ ive been looking at blt as if the glass is half full and evaporating day by day.
but reality is i look for positive news and positive sp movement every day........ for years.........................

sooner or later the glass will start to fill again........ and im not talking about going from 4cents to 10cents but getting back to $1.
it still amazes me that some of the big multi nationals havent bought blt with pocket money.

if i win a big lotto prize, i'll buy a very very large chunk of blt, place them in the bottom draw, gain a seat on the board and offer simla marketing and logistics managerial position.
i think simla has done more for the company as a citizen and shareholder in marketing and information than the staff of blt.
i wonder how many of the shareholders read this forum?

anyway........ to carry on my good mood im off to have a drink.

cheers

simla

08-10-2010, 07:45 PM

Well, thanks for the compliment! But I think you'll find the staff at BLT are actually moving enormous mountains, whereas I just sit here making posts once in a while! But yes, with company announcements only a few each year, it is reassuring to have this discussion group going - which is many people, and certainly not just me. Thanks everyone.

As to who reads this ... not many, I think. If you watch the share price, it responds every time to announcements from the company and never to anything we discuss here. But it's nice that we get to swap thoughts for our own benefit, so that's fine. In the end, we hope that we will benefit from that fact that we have taken notice of events with this company.

blissfool

11-10-2010, 09:41 PM

Great post Simila, you should stand for the board, you would do and are doing a better job at Bliss communication then they are, the lack of Market updates is their biggest weakness and frustration. Perhaps it is that old canny dunedin spirit understate and over achieve. Still expecting big news this year lots of ducks in a row these days (and duck shooting season has finished)

simla

12-10-2010, 08:45 AM

Thanks, but I repeat that Blis do fantastic work. Further, they are a quite small staff with a tight budget. We do get told in detail what is happening with each report, which is an whole lot more than many companies do (incredibly.)

And also, you only have to go on other threads here to easily find regular complaints about management promising good things and then not delivering. We do not have that problem here.

I would imagine Blis are flat tack all the time. The work load they do is huge. Never underestimate the constraint of staff numbers. I remember emailing one listed startup a few years ago with a suggestion, and the CEO replied by pointing out that the entire office of this listed company comprised only the CEO and his secretary!!

By the way, I bought some M18 - Nature's Plus Adult's Dental Care. K12 leaves your teeth feeling clean overnight, but M18 instantly leaves them feeling really smooth. The product has very professional presentation in every way, and I was impressed. It is also quite big. The packaging would be almost 4 inches by 2 inches, which must give it noticeable shelf presence in a store. It occurs to me that the same may well be true of the new 90 pack of Bioguard.

neopoleII

12-10-2010, 12:07 PM

where did you buy the m18?
i would like to get some.

simla

12-10-2010, 12:55 PM

emearg

12-10-2010, 05:04 PM

I got mine from Vitaminlife. The international freight was twice the price of the product itself, so I bought 3 bottles to average down a bit - but it arrived only 3 days after the email telling me it had been shipped (which itself took a few days in this instance), so the freight price was probably for the speed. You may find cheaper freight, there or elsewhere, by poking about. I just wanted to try it, and didn't bother doing the work on that one, so I just took the first option I found.

You went for the fancy dancy shipping Simla! They also offer standard airmail which takes 1 - 2 weeks but for 6 bottles (VegLife K12 product) was about $18 US as I recall. That is 300 lozenges for $92 NZ at the time. The dollar is stronger now :-)

simla

12-10-2010, 08:53 PM

emearg

13-10-2010, 06:34 PM

You trailblazer, Emearg!

Have you noticed there's a new video on the Costco site. It looks like it is probably an ad they play. It is 50 seconds, leaving room for a few seconds of "available at ... ", perhaps. Looks good.

No not really. Just got sick of paying NZ prices. I have placed two orders with them now. The first was three bottles. A chap a work with also bought six bottles recently and have become a firm believer! He tells everybody how wonderful it is!

I got through yet another winter without a cold! Wooooohoooooo!!

Oh, the chap at work flies every week and no longer gets blocked ears. He loves it just for that reason alone!!

I watched the ad. It is quite well targeted. In some ways I preferred last years ad as it had more wow factor, but this one is more appropriate for their new market angle i.e. immune boost

Enjoy your M18...

simla

14-10-2010, 07:56 AM

There it is: the public launch of M18, and mention of Supply Side West next week. http://www.npicenter.com/article/Products/Patented-Oral-Cavity-Probiotic-for-Complete-Oral-Protection.aspx

And yesterday, we believe K12 was at HiJapan, the large Japanese and Asian Health Ingredient trade show, too. http://www.hijapan.info/eng/companylist/detail.php?exid=H10133469&page=index

simla

14-10-2010, 09:22 AM

Hey, and here's a photo of the Bioguard display in a Costco store, from the Blis facebook page (thanks Blis.) http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=148592445184314&set=a.106965989346960.4166.106885549355004

The photo looks better if you have the tools to rotate it, and then reset the image size back to the dimensions before you rotate it, like so (you have to be logged in to see this version as an attachment): 2984

It certainly has a physical presence. That must be worth some sales.

simla

14-10-2010, 09:51 AM

Just imagine how much work has been done over the years to make that photo possible! What a fantastic endorsement of what a great staff we have at BLT, and now at it's various partners too.

emearg

14-10-2010, 06:31 PM

A pallet sized display is better than I expected :-)

simla

14-10-2010, 08:05 PM

I think that photo is a huge piece of news, Emearg. In that one photo is a ton of detail that adds up to "these guys mean business." Imagenetix sure have a lot of get up and go. That photo tells me they intend to succeed. The placement. The negotiations it must have taken. The colours. The packaging. The design. The campaign. The display size. Etc.

I don't know how much of that is Imagenetix, and how much is the Blis/Frutarom team, but Imagenetix obviously know what they're doing anyway. You can see it in their Celadrin work. Just look at this page of distributors of Celadrin, who you've got to think Imagenetix will mean to get on board with Bioguard too. http://www.celadrin.com/pages/us_ret.php

I'm hugely encouraged by that one photograph. Grand plans mean nothing if they are ruined by poor execution on the day. But there's sure nothing wrong with that execution. It's as good as we might hope for surely.

emearg

14-10-2010, 08:24 PM

I commented a few months back how widely Celadrin is distributed in the States and how I felt it makes sense Imagenetix would be able to take advantage of their distribution network with BioGuard.

Imagenetix have mass distribution rights for a K12 product in the US.

Frutatrom wouldn't have selected them unless they thought they were suitable.

Or at least that is what I thought then.

I still think that.

So far so good.

Cannibal

14-10-2010, 11:39 PM

Oct 14 2010 --- Frutarom, USA has launched BLIS M18, a patented oral cavity probiotic for complete oral protection. BLIS 18 provides advanced protection for the mouth and teeth. Developed from a specific strain of S. salivarius common and beneficial oral bacteria BLIS M18 has been clinically proven to promote the health of the mouth and oral cavity by continuously supporting and increasing the underlying health of the teeth and gums.

BLIS M18 is a new generation of advanced probiotic, friendly bacteria that, used in conjunction with regular oral hygiene practices, can establish a healthy balance of bacteria in the mouth and naturally protect the teeth and gums from oral and dental pathogens. A daily intake of BLIS M18 can aid in protecting teeth from bacteria known to cause tooth decay, while protecting teeth from erosion caused by high-acid foods and helping break up dental plaque.

http://www.nutritionhorizon.com/news/Frutarom-Launches-Oral-Probiotic.html

simla

16-10-2010, 01:52 PM

Blis must be very busy indeed just now. They are: supplying thousands of stores across the US; taking M18 out to the market; appearing at trade shows; organising and running a human safety trial for the GRAS; presumably dealing with Nestle over their plans; dealing with other companies no doubt; running a publicity campaign for K12 in the US; no doubt pressing on in Asia; and Europe ... and with a large financial report to deliver shortly too. I'm certainly grateful.

Meanwhile, volume over the last 2 months appears to be maybe 25,000 BLTPA and a million BLT. Say 1.6m share equivalent. It's not even particularly low volumes, but the market comes across as quiet, and someone has been picking up some good buys at some good prices (in my opinion, anyway.)

That resized photo I posted reports having had 10 views now. Who knew we had so many followers! The masses who complain that NZ is not worth investing in should perhaps at least bother to check whether that's true first! The longer I follow this Blis story, the more I conclude that most NZ investors have no curiosity for knowledge whatsoever. Presumably they are content to follow the crowd. But, if following the crowd is such a great strategy, why aren't most NZers rich? I don't think there can be too many value investors in this country.

Also meanwhile: behind the big moves, there is also a steady growth in web sites selling Blis-related products. Momentum quietly grows on the wider front.

emearg

18-10-2010, 06:41 PM

http://www.riteaid.com/stores/weekly_ad/detail_item.jsf?tnumber=T57607&circularId=2434&region=west&page=12

http://www.riteaid.com/stores/weekly_ad/single_page_view.jsf?circularId=2434&page=12&region=west&ad_type=weekly

simla

20-10-2010, 08:22 AM

Well, in light of that link, Emearg, here's an interesting question: Are we waiting for news that has already arrived?

NZ revenues aren't necessarily huge, but nevertheless the company would be in a pretty comfortable spot if those revenues were scaled up to the US market, no? Yet with Costco and Riteaid selling nationwide, combined with a fairly active looking marketing approach now, plus all the other manufacturers and their outlets, perhaps something like that level of market penetration is already there, or will be there if the company just goes on another year or so while market acceptance grows. And, of course, the company has Asian revenues as well, which are likely to keep growing too.

The company has some pretty big schemes in progress for the future. But I wonder if we shareholders have got so used to always waiting over the years that we've overlooked that those extra plans do not need to come to pass for the company to be doing all right. Yes, the expansion expenses may hide a trend for a bit yet. But what I'm starting to wonder is whether we haven't already got to where we have wanted to get to for all those years? The rest will obviously be very welcome, but actually exceeds what people have been waiting for all this time maybe?

So, comments anyone? Are we waiting for news that has already arrived? And if not, then exactly what news are we waiting for? Just a thought.

As a little footnote, one of the things we are naturally all aware of is the huge financial storm battering the world as Blis launches. Well, Kit Kat was launched in 1935, in the midst of The Depression, although the actual name Kit Kat wasn't adopted until 1937, just before World War II. I've heard it did all right!

neopoleII

20-10-2010, 11:05 AM

""And if not, then exactly what news are we waiting for""
the board is pleased to anounce a maiden dividend of 3cents per share,..............

simla

20-10-2010, 11:34 AM

Well, yes, except that that means the only news we are waiting for is that everything is honky dory and everything is over now. Are we seriously waiting only for news that the shares are worth five times what they are selling for now?

That is my point really - I think we have got so used to looking for huge success that we are possibly overlooking smaller scale success already staring us in the face. We are so busy constantly looking to the horizon that we are missing what is in front of our noses maybe?

blissfool

21-10-2010, 05:18 PM

Thats rather philosophical Simila, I tend to think that this year will be the profit break thru year and things will continue to gradually improve. Eventually the actual results will catch up with the great potential, I remain optimistic about the finanical payback of this very good NZ made product.

"Ladies and gentlemen place your bets" on the result for the first 6 months, I'm picking a profit of $200K. (gut feeling only and no accounting expertise).

Cannibal

21-10-2010, 05:39 PM

I am picking a solid profit too. But I did last quarter too so I am reluctant to put a figure on it. It seems inevitable given the impressive progress to date. However I think that announcements regarding GRAS and M18 partnerships will have a more profound effect on the share price and they can't be too far away now.
Communication with shareholders is still not their strong suit.

neopoleII

21-10-2010, 06:56 PM

yes cannibal ......... it is inevitable that blt will make it, they have turned a corner. hopefully after this corner they are heading for the long straight.
m18 above all else will make this co.
once it is in toothpaste or oral mouthwash it will sweep the world...... or convince the world that a pill a day keeps the dentist away.
then.......... joe public will look at the k12 and say........ this stuff is good as well.
in the future, i can see both products being in mainstream products and the public saying " why didnt someone do this earlier"
i still think that management made some very very serious errors in the past, and original shareholders have been totally shafted, but....... for those who have held on.... like me......... we might get a payday someday.
once GRAS comes through or m18 is in general toothpaste...... i'll buy like crazy, untill then the directors will never get another cent from me.
i have have several letters from the company asking me to "invest" more of my money in them over the years.
i have chosen to be diluted than give them more cash.
so much for the early bird gets the worm.
im still bitter about management, but i still think these products will be great someday.

brucea

21-10-2010, 08:29 PM

For what's it's worth guys I have been using the Nature's Plus Adult Dental Care probiotic with M18 since it became available on the internet; last week my dentist said my teeth were fine when I had my dental examination, apart from an old filling that was due for replacing anyway (with the inspection that cost over $300!!!). I suspect the M18 acts similarly to K12 to prevent bad breath, - I take 1x Throatguard in the morning and 1x M18 at night. If you could stop just one dental caries from developing, then the investment in these products would quickly pay for itself. Maybe yearly dental inspections would suffice.

simla

22-10-2010, 09:28 PM

"Ladies and gentlemen place your bets" on the result for the first 6 months
I'm cautiously optimistic, but no guesses. The company is very active indeed, which means both revenue and expenses are hard for us to predict still. Even a happy result will still need to be confirmed by the next results, so mainly I'm looking for news that shows the company is gaining in market penetration and strategic choices. It may be too early to hear about GRAS or Nestle, but the company usually has some unexpected news up its sleeve. Basically the company has changed from being in a position of "catch up" with past expectations to now being able to set its own course, so I await news with some curiosity.

Cannibal

27-10-2010, 03:55 PM

Not sure how much of this is new. Good that we have the Buddhists on-side.
http://www.buddhist-network.com/blog/view/id_144

fungus pudding

27-10-2010, 04:37 PM

I'm cautiously optimistic, but no guesses. The company is very active indeed, which means both revenue and expenses are hard for us to predict still. Even a happy result will still need to be confirmed by the next results, so mainly I'm looking for news that shows the company is gaining in market penetration and strategic choices. It may be too early to hear about GRAS or Nestle, but the company usually has some unexpected news up its sleeve.

Surely if it usually has some news up its sleeve then it won't be unexpected. :D

simla

28-10-2010, 12:12 PM

Just a few notes from looking around the net recently:

Not sure how much of this is new. Good that we have the Buddhists on-side.
http://www.buddhist-network.com/blog/view/id_144

That article wasn't very clear in it's source (but was dated back at the AGM.) Was it an interview or not? Anyway, did you notice, "CostCo is the third-largest US retailer, and Rite Aid the third- largest US drugstore retailer. Both these and other US retail chains used or planned to use Blis K12 and Blis M18 as ingredients." Other retail chains?

Meanwhile, this article http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8074182/Probiotic-drinks-do-not-aid-health-Europe-says.html tells us "Nearly 60 per cent of UK households regularly buy probiotic drinks, and over £200 million of them are sold every year in Britain." That's great, and shows potential for GRAS in the US. It's a pity the same article tells us the European Food Safety Authority is rejecting health-benefit claims by the hundreds. Mind you, as a a consumer I'm happy to see more action on food ingredients, but it looks like Blis will have it's hands full getting into Europe for a while yet maybe. However, Blis have concentrated on having the scientific evidence at all times, so this could be an opportunity.

In Taiwan, the KSS66 product is slowly gaining more internet coverage. Here's a product format apparently with individual wrapped lozenges, looking designed to be sold on shop counters maybe. http://bb5.babyhome.com.tw/files/babyhomeQ/990824-bb.jpg

In Japan, "Epoca K12" shows up on 86 sites.

Bioguard has had an ad in both of the last CostcoConnection magazines. I found a couple of sites estimating circulation of 8 million. "More than 18% of Costco Connection readers are millionaires, and 55% own their own business. Advertising in The Costco Connection is effective too, 57% of Connection readers made purchases as a result of seeing an ad in The Connection. The readership is primarily one of upscale business leaders who have high-end discretionary income." http://www.echo-media.com/mediadetail.asp?IDNumber=10014

Meanwhile, the Celadrin store locator site has been populated with Costcos carrying Bioguard. http://www.syntaxsys.com/store_locator/lookup.php It seemed to be in every Costco I randomly looked at in a number of random states, including Fort Worth, New York, Chicago, LA, Miami.

The Riteaid freebate seems to have been reported on hundreds of web pages, suggesting that may have gained some attention to the product.

The search "nature's plus" "power teen" returns 344 pages. Nature's Plus cut a good figure on the net, and I have to wonder whether they mightn't be doing well with Blis products.

And the search +Culturedcare comes up with 184 results.

"Blis K12" returns 5,750 results.

All these search results are reduced by going to the last page to see when Google stops, rather than just accepting the initial estimate on page 1, which is usually much greater.

The news ads up. With the world economy remaining very challenging, it is a credit to the company that they keep making good progress.

brucea

28-10-2010, 06:50 PM

Wow and well done Simla ...you should work for Google!! I am a little unsure what you mean when you say Nature's Plus cut a good figure on the net, and I have to wonder whether they mightn't be doing well with Blis products" I read this to mean they have a lot of web site hits but only 344 for products that contain Blis product and that you think Blis is not doing well for them

simla

28-10-2010, 08:46 PM

I mean: they have a wide array of websites, so seem to have good distribution in place; and they seem to have successful distributors; and they produce very market-oriented products, so seem to have a good sense of marketing. As a result, I think maybe they are a good source of sales for Blis, and their multiple use of Blis products suggests they also see Blis as a very useful supplier to them. Have a look around the net and see for yourself whether you sense upbeat as the usual atmosphere of their distributors. I was also very impressed myself with the marketable appearance and high quality of manufacture of the M18 I got.

It's very hard to know how much websites equate to actual sales, but I think they definitely count. This website, for instance, has had Culturedcare on the front page since Culturedcare was launched as far as I can tell (only from my occasional visits), and that has to be worth some sales surely? http://www.natvd.com/

You would never guess that I see a future for Blis would you! No doubt that's why I own Blis shares. I do find the current drought in BLT trading quite bizarre given that we are aware of plenty of potential good news, and have little reason to think things are going wrong, apart from the drag of general world economic conditions. Each investor to his own, though.

brucea

29-10-2010, 12:15 AM

Thanks Simla for clarifying as I was puzzled by the comment and misinterpreted it; I am very positive about Blis's future

emearg

29-10-2010, 11:06 PM

I note Costco have a $3 off manufactures rebate on BioGuard. That should help boost sales...

Chippie

29-10-2010, 11:42 PM

Probiotics grow in popularity

http://www.therabreath.com/articles/news/Probiotics-grow-in-popularity-1660.asp

emearg

30-10-2010, 09:24 AM

Probiotics grow in popularity

http://www.therabreath.com/articles/news/Probiotics-grow-in-popularity-1660.asp

I take anything Therabreath say with a large grain of salt as they clearly have an agenda but what they say does make sense.

I will be suprised if Therabreath DON'T bring out a product or two that has M18 in it. Healthy teeth and gums equals better breath. Or at least unhealthy teeth and gums equals smelly breath. Kiss somebody with gum problems to experience what I mean...

brucea

30-10-2010, 12:39 PM

I know this is a delicate subject to raise in this forum (and apologies for lowering the tone) but people who have bad breath must have a poor sex life (there, I have said it!). If only Blis could "sex up" their product this might increase sales dramatically as we all have to admit that sex indeed sells.....

Cannibal

30-10-2010, 06:42 PM

Brucea - you little devil - you said it.
Sexing up is not too hard to do and is generally accepted in advertising. Remember the - No Smint, No Kiss campaign?

brucea

31-10-2010, 08:04 AM

Cannibal I hasten to add I do myself not take Blis for any reasons remotely connected with sexual success and remain as pure as driven snow (he says looking anxiously upwards in case there is an electrical storm brewing).... I guess with many humans part of this success is having the confidence to chat someone up without the risk that your breath is going to make them wilt away. Have you seen the tv advert with that young woman who is dancing with a hunk at a disco and then sneaks aside to brush her teeth with one of those single use disposable toothbrushes before returning to his arms. Now that could be the type of advertising that products with Blis K12 or M18 could use.

simla

03-11-2010, 09:04 PM

Here's a reference to M18 at Supply Side West. It as one of only a handful of products this particular writer mentioned, despite calling the show "bigger than ever". http://edaily.supplysideshow.com/blogdefault.aspx/m/art/a/partnerships-driving-growth-in-nutraceuticals.html Another article said there were 1200 booths there.

It also says, "As noted in one packed education session, the rate of approval from FDA on [new dietary ingredients] notifications has been quite small. The agency has promised to issue guidance on the topic", and "One way companies are aiming to avoid those challenges is by developing strong scientific substantiation for their ingredients." Certainly the GRAS issue is one of the things we'll be keen to hear about in the upcoming results, if news is available then.

Cannibal

04-11-2010, 10:32 AM

Good to see M18 getting some airtime at such an important show - every little helps.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=10683102

brucea

04-11-2010, 12:14 PM

Good to see M18 getting some airtime at such an important show - every little helps.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=10683102

Thanks Cannibal - I missed this article in the Herald - you would think though there would have been an acknowledgment in the story that K12 originated in little ol NZ. The link went to the Cultured Care Canadian site but no word if the product can be sourced in NZ. Recently I inquired at a health vitamin shop in St Lukes about K12 and M18 products and got blank looks from the staff...

Cannibal

07-11-2010, 07:41 PM

Well - late this week should see the half year numbers announced. I really am not sure which way they will go. SO many positive indicators but...
Inaugural profit seems to be a certainty but I thought that 6 months ago.
Mexican stand-off with the share price - a bid of 9.3 cents and asking 11.3 cents - a 21% spread. Some quite big (optimistic?) sellers appeared this week asking 14 and 15 cents. Fingers crossed.

simla

07-11-2010, 10:30 PM

I'm not sure about later this week, Cannibal, as there's still three and a half weeks of the month left. Could be, though.

A profit will probably mainly depend on what expenses have been doing. The company's been pretty busy, don't forget.

On the one hand, possible not-so-goods might include: more delays in GRAS (in light of that article I posted above saying the FDA are getting pretty tough on new ingredients now too); problems with the exchange rate maybe; rise in expenses due to heavy expansion work maybe.

Or on the other hand, possible happy news might be: GRAS is ready to roll; Nestle are ready to roll; M18 has been adopted by quite a few products already; sales are going well in this winter season (post first half); discovering more about the other research project they're doing; happy sales revenue from the first half; and maybe even interesting developments like yoghurt or something; maybe progress in Asia.

It's quite a range of possible news, reflecting the increasing depth of the company's activities. But personally I've become fairly resilient about the possible outcomes, as I feel the company has got into a fairly useful position now regardless. So I'm expecting to be happy in the face of even quite mixed results now. They're out there selling in a lot of places now, and I feel the money must flow eventually on the strength of that alone now, let alone all the new stuff we're hoping for as well. As before, I'd be happy to hear that Asia is coming along, as the US remains a challenged economy.

As for the share price, I've given up attaching any significance to it. The company has never had loose lips, so there is no way a weak share price means anything other than a lack of interest. I've bought a few more over the last half myself, if that's any consolation.

So yes, the news will be good to hear. There is every chance of it being cheerful news. Meanwhile, preference dividends in a week.

Cannibal

08-11-2010, 08:33 AM

I based it on them releasing the figures on November 12th last year.
But you are right - so many variables. It should eliminate some of the speculation on here hopefully and provide a clearer picture of all of your points. I am still adopting my usual Optimistic Ingenue approach...

brucea

09-11-2010, 11:39 AM

As someone who would never go to a casino, rarely buys Lotto tickets, never been to the TAB and looks pursed-lipped at friends who do, some of you guys would be intrigued by the shares I took a punt on and have topped up over the past years. As for the big companies listed on NZX - boring, boring. The speculative shares include BLT (the company and product I passionately believe in - down 20%), BLTPA (up 36%), CHA (up 2% - OK, Mark Ellis is a cool guy), RAK (down 34% - the technology interests me, but did I really pay over $5 at one stage?), WDT (been in right from the beginning - nuff said as I am in denial over this one) and XRO (up 75%, saw the potential for this software, plus thought some of their backers are savvy investors). Overall total investment down 20%, although I am overweight in my favourite punt BLT, so am watching with interest how this company performs in the future. Of all these investments, BLT is the only company whose product I buy regularly. I have used K12 daily when I travel overseas (eg India, Middle East and the wilds of SA).

Cannibal

09-11-2010, 11:54 AM

Jeez - down 20% - that's gotta hurt. I made some money on Xero as well but got out at $1.65. Starting to wish that I had not
I share your sentiment on BLT.
Both companies are due to release numbers in the next few days - good luck to you on both.
Marc is a dick!

brucea

09-11-2010, 12:15 PM

Marc is a dick![/QUOTE]
But he is good looking (metrosexually speaking) - maybe Blis need a pretty face to flog K12...

simla

10-11-2010, 10:34 AM

Don't be coy, Brucea. We can see what you want. Just send them your audition tape, and you're bound to get the job. Perhaps a clip of you singing "Wild Thing"?

brucea

10-11-2010, 01:54 PM

Don't be coy, Brucea. We can see what you want. Just send them your audition tape, and you're bound to get the job. Perhaps a clip of you singing "Wild Thing"?
What? And see sales plummet???

emearg

13-11-2010, 09:30 AM

My bank balance just increased. Preference dividends paid yesterday were they? Groovey :)

Everybody has been sick around me this past fortnight. I had a sore throat last Friday night so I bumped my intake and it was gone by Sunday. No more sore throat, no cold...no nothing :)

I am now actively marketing K12 to people when they ask don't I ever get sick. I know more than enough about the product and science to be convincing so I have another one hooked and spending her dosh appropriately. Hopefully colds will become a thing of the past for her too. Seems like a pretty simple solution to me. I never expected it to be a magic bullet but now I am wondering...

The half year results should be interesting. Based on the AGM presentation revenue should be dramatically up on last years first half. What else falls out of it we will have to wait and see.

brucea

13-11-2010, 03:17 PM

I often recommend Blis Throatguard to people as I would any product that I have found to be beneficial to me - nothing to do with owning Blis shares I hasten to add. I own CHA shares yet do not even buy their fruit drinks and therefore have never recommended friends buy it. Same with RAK, XRO and WDT - never had need to buy or use their products so have not recommended others to try them. If only I looked like Sam Worthington Blis sales might go through the roof - maybe emearg can give him a run for his money and win new converts to K12......

brucea

15-11-2010, 05:02 PM

Where is Blis K12 in all this????? Check out http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10687725 re article about Household crowding being partially blamed for New Zealand having one of the highest rates of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) among children and teenagers in the developed world.

neopoleII

15-11-2010, 07:55 PM

simla

15-11-2010, 09:58 PM

I don't disagree about the desirability of GRAS etc, but the current management are trying very hard to do exactly that. Did you see my post above showing the FDA are playing hard to get on this stuff now, too? BLT work hard and smart all the time, from where I'm sitting.

I'm guessing the results will be the end of the month, letting us have an update on current sales.

simla

16-11-2010, 02:22 PM

This looks encouraging: Imagenetix's 10-Q quarterly filing. http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=7559354-7957-74305&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-10-060673

Combined sales of Celadrin and Bioguard have gone up very strongly compared to a year ago. They've spent a lot of money on advertising, and intend to spend even more.

However, I see no breakdown between Celadrin and Bioguard for either income or expenditure, so this leaves us none the wiser from a BLT shareholder's point of view! Nevertheless, clearly Imagenetix know what they're doing about getting goods out into mass market outlets and advertising them. That's got to be good for BLT.

emearg

16-11-2010, 05:57 PM

Being distributed to RiteAid will make a big difference to Blis revenue. Take a look at this:

.02 grams per lozenge
1.8 grams per bottle (90 lozenges)
21.6 grams per tray (dozen bottles (guess on my part) per store for roll out)
4800 shops
103.7 kgs of K12

That is a lot of bacteria! Does anyone here think that won't make a significant difference to revenue?

And there is another 400 Costcos. And all the other products. And other countries.

Sorry but I don't see why anybody is complaining at the moment. Blis is making good progress delivering on the business strategy they revealed in 2007. There is plenty more to be done but they are approaching everything sensibly and slowly but surely knocking their various targets off. For a team of ten people they are achieving more than we could expect (because they are smart enough to have strong partners)

brucea

17-11-2010, 06:59 AM

bliss k12 is where it is always at..............
on obscure healtheries websites that promote to health conscious folks that are generally healthy.
the poor folks out there are not a target audience to blis at this stage.
and the government health departments are busy promoting products cleared by the fda.
until fda approval or gras comes though, or............ better advertising will blis become mainstream.

sorry for endlessly going on about the same thing year after year.
blis products are the bees knees, blis management is...................
not
From that herald article quote: "The infectious disease, which can cause chronic rheumatic heart disease through damaged heart valves, is responsible for more than 120 deaths a year........New Zealand research has already shown that we should be able to reduce ARF by as much as 60 per cent through well-resourced school-based `strep' throat treatment programmes. This would avoid costly medical treatment, heart valve replacements and monthly penicillin injections in teenage years and later life." Given the apparent evidence that Blis K12 would reduce the risk of acute rheumatic fever developing, wouldn't this be a significant way to raise public and medical awareness of the benefits of the product?

Cannibal

17-11-2010, 09:23 AM

This from the Imagenetix report issued yesterday -
Commenting on the results of the second quarter, Mr. William Spencer, Imagenetix Chief Executive Officer said: “Sales more than tripled from the first fiscal quarter as several major chains expanded Celadrin softgels and BioGuard, our novel healthy immune system innovation, to a national level.
Tripled is a good word - very good.

neopoleII

17-11-2010, 10:02 AM

""wouldn't this be a significant way to raise public and medical awareness of the benefits of the product? ""

yes it would...........
why cant management see that?

neopoleII

17-11-2010, 10:07 AM

""Tripled is a good word - very good. ""

yes it is, but is it sustainable growth or just a new fad to try?
look at NZ...... started well then fizzled.
we need sustainable growth and sustainable consuption.
growth figures means not alot if its only a fad.
sorry to be negative....... but seen it all before.

Cannibal

17-11-2010, 10:16 AM

Ah - a little ray of sunshine as always...
A fad? The pundits don't seem to think so -
The global probiotics market is predicted to continue its growth, with estimations for 2014 of $32.6 billion.

The market is also predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6 per cent between now and 2014, according to an analyst briefing
presentation on the global probiotic market from MarketsandMarkets.
The company said the US market would have a CAGR of 17 per cent, while Asia and Europe will account for nearly 30, and 42 per cent of the total revenues,
respectively. “The early movers in the industry will benefit in terms of market share but it is important that they focus on innovating probiotic strains that are
more efficient in terms of survivability in harsh conditions and stability and are supported by competitively-priced production technologies,” said
MarketsandMarkets.

And -
the global probiotics market, though still relatively young, is forecasted to post almost $29 billion in revenues by 2015. What’s more, the market is also ripe for “impressive growth” as consumers continue to seek out preventative healthcare measures in an effort to combat rising healthcare costs. In addition, improved ingredient efficiency coupled with increased scientific evidence is another major factor contributing to market growth.

simla

17-11-2010, 02:20 PM

Yes, but you're a refulgent cynosure yourself now, Cannibal. Can we have two rays of sunshine at the same time, or would that confuse us?

Cannibal

17-11-2010, 03:32 PM

Simla - no you can't - you are too easily confused. Anyway it is all about me, me, me!
It is early days with M18 at Frutarom but good to see they are a succesful company. They released their fugures for the last quarter yesterday. All good.

Frutarom’s net profit in the first nine months of 2010 increased by approximately 37.2% reaching approximately US$ 35.3M compared to a net profit of approximately US$ 25.7 M in the same period in 2009. The net profit achieved in the first three quarters of the year is higher than the net profit achieved in the entire year of 2009.

simla

19-11-2010, 02:11 PM

Well, that was a tale of two halves. Everything the company can do right, it seems to be doing right. But most things outside of it's control continues to be hard work. In particular, regulations just get tougher and tougher. Meanwhile, retail chain sales continue to look promising, have produced early returns, but we wait to see what follows.

There was solid progress on very many fronts, but not with getting lots of cash in the door. Sales increased a fair bit in the US, but not in NZ or Asia. Meanwhile expenses increased a bit more. We're told that sales in the US will be seasonal, just like in NZ apparently, and it was summer there this last half.

GRAS is delayed another quarter in the estimate. No indication of sales to date this half that I saw. Ongoing capitalised expenses as usual. Cash continues to be used.

There was definitely good news in there:

Another major retail chain in early 2011.
Will launch in Costco Mexico soonish. Mexico has 110m people.
Additional M18 products to be launched soon.
Eleven products in Asia now.
Extensive retail advertising supporting the Bioguard launch. "Steady growth in sales is anticipated."

All of which leaves us thinking the retail chain expansion looks very promising, but we haven't got any figures yet. GRAS remains elusively close, and we do not know how long that would take to pay off once gained anyway.

The company is working very hard in a very tough market. Consumer sentiment is awful everywhere on the one hand, while regulators are upping the ante all over the world at the same time.

The potential payoff of the company just got even bigger again with yet more outlets opening up, but good sales levels over the US winter would be good to fund the expansion.

Obviously many of us would have liked a profit here, but we didn't get it. Unfortunately we are now going to have to wait 6 months to find out how well this thing sells in nationwide retail chains. Sigh.

It seems to me the company has done very well here in all it's efforts. Lots has been achieved in a very hostile environment. It will be nice when the cash flows though, obviously.

neopoleII

19-11-2010, 02:17 PM

"Steady growth in sales is anticipated."
i recall reading this line in the IPO phase.

mr.needs

19-11-2010, 04:34 PM

'slower progress than anticipated' seems to be the recurring theme in the latest report. Thats not to say it will never happen, just not in my lifetime.

simla

19-11-2010, 05:02 PM

Do remember that Bioguard was for sale in just 50 Costcos last US winter, and none in the last six months of this BLT report. Now it is for sale in 5200 stores, with another retail chain soon to join it apparently.

Nigel

19-11-2010, 05:03 PM

I think everyone agrees there is significant potential for this company to do very well. As Simla suggests, they're doing all the right things in terms of stratgeic partnerships and getting their product into some massive retail chains (they don't get much bigger than CostCo and RiteAid). Unfortunately, the timing of hitting these markets (right at the end of the reporting period) hasn't seen the big revenue surge we were hoping for, but in theory we'll see that in 6 months time. The currency didn't help, and the lack of progress on GRAS is a bit annoying, but these are elements outside our control.

BLT is a stock that can move quite dramatically on market announcements, and with another retailer coming on board shortly, the Mexico CostCo expansion plus new products on the horizon, there's plenty ahead to keep me interested. I get the feeling that once a few more pieces of the puzzle fall into place, the market will respond accordingly. The exciting thing with this stock is that that could happen at any time!

Lastly, no news on Nestle - is that good or bad?

Have a good weekend everyone :)

winner69

19-11-2010, 09:32 PM

No posts from the BLS insider this time around ... he was pretty strong in his praise last time around .... maybe not so good this time ... come on TRADER ... tell us the real story

simla

22-11-2010, 08:20 PM

Well, nobody is commenting, perhaps because of major news elsewhere. Nevertheless, I am very happy to once again thank the company for extremely hard work in a very tough market. Despite the enormous head winds, they have scored some very good runs once again. We are lucky to have such talented and hard working people going in to bat for us.

simla

26-11-2010, 03:22 PM

Come, come, Gentlemen. Is this thread to become like some others threads here, where criticism of companies is frequent, but never accompanied by praise?

If we are to let that attitude prevail, then the next few years may be very grim for many of us. The world has foundered on a very large rock, and we now face a choice of futures. Are we to step forward to meet the circumstances and accept difficult times in good cheer, as the British did in WWII? Or are we to follow Lord of the Flies, and take difficult times as an excuse to let civilities lapse?

The company has released a set of results which contain some information that we were not hoping for, particularly a lack of profit and a delay in GRAS. But they have also boxed on in very difficult circumstances and made some decent gains. A third retail chain is in the offing, Mexico might be interesting (do they get winter colds in Acapulco, I can't help wondering!), the other research project remains in the offing, and GRAS is still thought to be imminent. M18 has been taken up by firms, and Asia has brought out more product somewhere. Meanwhile, sales in the US have continued to grow, though mildly, in very difficult times, and NZ sales about matched last winter's sales. Compare that to how Ireland has fared, or the large list of failed banks in the US, responding to the same financial circumstances.

The long term outlook for the company seems little changed to my mind, with only short term sales missing. We knew that no retail chain was carrying it during the period anyway. The 5200 stores are currently carrying the product for the first time, and we will have to wait to see how that goes. But could we really hope for much more than that? It has been strange in the past that nobody has ever echoed my thanks to the company with each results, but it is even stranger that nobody can even bring themselves to comment on this set of results which represents an enormous amount of work from the company on our behalf, work which I admire and am grateful for.

So, is this thread to become like many others, a home only for discontent? Or are we to continue forward in a positive spirit? The world will only ever be as good as we make it.

fungus pudding

26-11-2010, 03:53 PM

I think everyone agrees there is significant potential for this company to do very well.

Hold it right there! I don't. :eek2:

blissfool

26-11-2010, 09:33 PM

well simla, I share your optimism, however this time it has been tempered by lack of updates to the market, last time we heard sales were going very well and then 6 months later we get another loss. I am a long time bliss shareholder and I will continue to hold, the product is very good and I think Barry is very astute and driving the bussiness in the right direction. These are challanging times for retailer, (Bliss's main customers), the american economy is a basket case and our dollar doesn't help exporters. There are still lots of positive, Barry and the Product, new education website, Mexico, we are coming into the american winter, Gras pending, another retailer to launch and a growing asian market. Still updates on Nestle would have been good. The result reflects a double dip retail recession. In hindsight of my profit prediction this result meets expectation and reflections current trading enviroment

emearg

27-11-2010, 09:40 AM

The K12 bug is back...

simla

27-11-2010, 11:16 AM

The K12 bug looks more friendly in that version than the old one, so that's good. Actually, that's quite eye-catching.

Yes, Blissfool, the parlous state of the world is one of Blis's biggest issues. However, that's actually positive, as that has been the least of their worries up to now, so that shows how much progress has been made on a lot of other fronts!

simla

29-11-2010, 07:50 AM

Thanks for those few comments. Hardly a rousing chorus of interest in the company's affairs. So be it then.

THEONE

07-12-2010, 12:35 PM

Hi Simla thankyou for all your posts. I havent posted for a while, I just read the posts. If Nestle did proceed any guess the likely revenue ? 1 million plus?
Are there any other shares you are interested in? what about WDT? and GEN. I like GEN as they have around 40 million in tax losses Surely can get some value from that with a reverse takeover or something. Any more Blis news? I still believe BLIS will do well one day just got to be patient.

THEONE

07-12-2010, 12:44 PM

I forgot to add, Thanks to Barry Richardson and the Blis Team for all the hard work. All though the profit isnt there yet, there are a number of interesting developments...

Cannibal

07-12-2010, 03:06 PM

Nutritional Impact Corporation (NIC), Frutarom Health and CK Nutritional Ingredients (CKNI) announced the commercialization of Blis K12™ Softgels, the first chewable probiotic softgel capsule designed to support healthy mouth and throat tissue. This development represents a quantum leap for the application of probiotics and is the result of twelve months of collaborative effort.

“We couldn’t be more thrilled. We fully expect that Blis K12™ in softgels will make quite an impact on the market. There is definitely strong consumer demand for this quality product in the very effective soft gel delivery system. It is the first product of its kind, and I think there are more applications on the horizon,” concluded Barjolin.

http://www.npicenter.com/article/NewProducts/Nuritional-Impact-Corp-Frutarom-and-CK-Nutritional-Ingredients-introduce-Blis-K12-in-chewable-softgel-capsule.aspx

simla

07-12-2010, 10:12 PM

I forgot to add, Thanks to Barry Richardson and the Blis Team for all the hard work. All though the profit isnt there yet, there are a number of interesting developments...
Bless you for expressing thanks publicly, The One. They deserve it for all their work, as Cannibal has just given another illustration of (thanks). It's a tough world out there.

Cannibal

09-12-2010, 07:32 AM

Interesting article here - http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Industry/Frutarom-prepares-BLIS-K12-future-with-consumer-education

"Frutarom USA is adopting consumer marketing tactics in a bid to grow the market for its BLIS K12 probiotic, as there is currently more awareness of
probiotics for gut health than in there is of chewable bacteria for oral health and immunity. "

"Frutarom also has plans to gain GRAS status for BLIS K12, initial self-affirmed but eventually FDA-notified, to open up new applications in foods
such as bars and dairy products. "

emearg

09-12-2010, 05:25 PM

I have received a lot of Google alerts in the last day or two. The press releases are being widely distributed.

The Softgel announcement is another excellent piece of news.

emearg

09-12-2010, 05:34 PM

BioGuard is being pushed at RiteAid at the moment? 30 packs for $4.99

http://www.riteaid.com/stores/weekly_ad/detail_item.jsf?tnumber=T57607&circularId=2482&region=east&page=15

emearg

10-12-2010, 07:58 PM

$85.60 NZ for another 6 bottles(300 lozenges) of K12 goodness. I thought I would order early with Xmas coming even though I still have two bottles left from my previous order.

Happy happy joy joy...

fungus pudding

10-12-2010, 08:41 PM

:eek2:
$85.60 NZ for another 6 bottles(300 lozenges) of K12 goodness. I thought I would order early with Xmas coming even though I still have two bottles left from my previous order.

Happy happy joy joy...

Good heavens! How sick are you? :eek2:

emearg

10-12-2010, 10:09 PM

:eek2:

Good heavens! How sick are you? :eek2:

I don't get sick anymore. It has been years and years now! No points for guessing what I think the reason is...

Cannibal

11-12-2010, 06:39 PM

Frutarom is really pushing K12 lately -
http://www.npicenter.com/article/Products/Fresh-success-with-oral-probiotic-BLIS-K12.aspx

Frutarom USA Inc. celebrates two years of success with BLIS K12—the world’s first probiotic for oral health. While many probiotic ingredients focus on digestive health benefits, BLIS K12 protects the body’s immune system by providing an innovative natural defense against bacterial imbalance in the mouth and fighting the bacteria that cause sore throats, ear infections, colds and bad breath. BLIS K12 can be found in a wide range of products designed to protect the immune system and promote fresh breath and is currently retailed widely throughout North America.
BLIS K12 is supported by extensive research and peer-reviewed papers reaching back more than 30 years. This product was designed specifically to protect the entire oral cavity and is clinically shown to reduce the incidence of sore throats while boosting the immune system. Ideal applications for BLIS K12 are products that provide prolonged contact with the mouth—chewable tablets, lozenges, fast-melt tablets, chewing gum, stick packs and powders. Benefits can be also delivered via functional foods such as yogurt and ice cream.
Providing innovation in the rapidly-growing oral and immune health categories has been a major key to the success of BLIS K12. “After a successful launch just two years ago BLIS K12 is already available through most retail channels, including mass market, health retail, online and via healthcare professionals,” notes Laurent Leduc, Vice President Health Frutarom Americas. Innova Market Insights tracked 691 new products globally (September 2009 – August 2010) featuring an “oral health” positioning, compared to 483 in the previous 12 months. The launches were predominantly reported in the chewing gum sector. As a singular category immunity continues with impressive growth in terms of product launch activity, with 951 new product launches from September 2009 to August 2010 compared to 773 globally in the previous 12 months. Immune health continues as a category leader in supplements, growing robustly at 7-8%, according to Nutrition Business Journal. Internationally, probiotic supplement sales reached $1.2 billion in 2007 and are expected to top $1.7 billion in 2013.
A recent successful launch containing BLIS K12 is BioGuard® from the San Diego-based Imagenetix, This pleasant-tasting chewable tablet, is designed to dissolve easily in the mouth and provides probiotic defense for the ears, nose and throat. BioGuard is currently available at Costco, Rite Aid, and in other mass retailers. Imagenetix has provided extensive support for this launch in Costco stores with both national TV and online marketing campaigns.
“It is worth noting that BLIS K12 has been rigorously tested and is safe and effective for both children and adults,” states Leduc. “For long-term protection, BLIS K12 should be taken daily, just as you would take a multivitamin.” Consumers may also consider using a product containing BLIS K12 if they have recently taken antibiotics, to assist the body in maintaining a healthy balance or before and during air travel. Consistent with its focus on innovation and science, Frutarom is committed to supporting consumer education on oral probiotics and the outstanding health benefits of BLIS K12 with the new website www.blisk12.com (http://www.blisk12.com/), positioning BLIS K12 as the “Gateway to your Body’s Health” and providing product information from Frutarom’s health and science teams.

fungus pudding

11-12-2010, 06:43 PM

just as you would take a multivitamin.” .

Oh dear! That's a worry.

emearg

16-12-2010, 07:30 PM

Oh dear! That's a worry.

Why? Vitamins are big business! I would have thought getting people to take Blis products just like a multivitamin is exactly what we want?

Or was your comment more about ethics?

emearg

16-12-2010, 07:50 PM

Looks like Dr Katz is introducing a new product with M18 and K12 in it:

http://1dental.wordpress.com/2010/12/13/bad-breath-101-katz/

I doubt it will make much of an impact in sales, but one has to wonder why similar products are available in dentists in many countries including NZ. I wondered about M18 yesterday when I went to the dentist. Seems like a logical point of sale for such products.

I can feel an email to Barry coming on...

brucea

20-12-2010, 06:45 AM

Not sure whether the following link is relevant, but it introduces the concept of toothpaste in a tablet form - maybe an idea for M18 additive in future Blis products? Just in case you guys had thought I had karked it, I have just got back from 3 week holiday where there was no internet connection. Came back to the news my WDT shares had fallen out of bed .... oh well that is life in the sharemarket investing world... the link is http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10695411

simla

22-12-2010, 03:41 PM

Seasons Greeting to all.

Well, 2010 didn't quite work out as we were expecting. GRAS has run into delays but the company presses on fairly confidently on that front. The chewing gum is looking popular, but is not outside of Canada yet (except on the net), perhaps due to GRAS. Asian sales revenues have not grown strongly so far. Costco did not go nationwide until a couple of months ago. And expenses have kept ahead of income as the company continues to pay for expansion costs.

But the company has certainly made good progress. Costco has now opened nationwide (plus Mexico soon), and there does not seem to be the restraint of "seasonal product" on it there now, although I don't think we've been actually told that, have we? And now Riteaid has joined the list, and with a product at a pretty attractive price point. And the last report said, "it is anticipated that an additional BLIS K12 based product will be launched by another major national retail chain early in 2011."

Meanwhile M18 has been launched, but we have yet to detect new products on the market, but we are told we will. GRAS is also proceeding to what we are told may be completion by March. Meanwhile, we presume that Asia continues to make progress. Another product format appeared, softgels. And the company is working on end-consumer marketing.

So, basically, the company was just deprived of the benefits of mass retail outlets for most of 2010, and of GRAS for all of the year. This constrained the total income for obvious reasons, and GRAS incurred more expense than expected, but the company otherwise made good progress on a number of fronts.

There is still every reason to think the sun will shine on affairs soon, but no way of knowing until we hear more news. Certainly the product is out in mass retail outlets now. Mass retail sales plus the effect of gaining GRAS would presumably be pretty good news, as might either one be on its own.

Here's to 2011.

THEONE

28-12-2010, 11:47 AM

Hi i am not sure if these have been mentioned before

http://www.aysyaonline.com/aysyashop/product04.php?productid=BIOPRO_04
http://www.pureencapsulations.com/itemdy00.asp?T1=OPB6
http://www.tpml-jp.com/original.html

simla

28-12-2010, 12:10 PM

Just the Bio Protect is new to us. Well spotted though. It is another product in Japan, which is good. But 7500 yen is 120 NZD for 30 tablets according to Google.

simla

28-12-2010, 12:59 PM

Are there any other shares you are interested in? what about WDT? and GEN.

The One, I didn't ignore your question (about a month ago, sorry!) on WDT and GEN, I just can't think of a suitable answer. Although WDT and BLT have had a lot of parallels over the years, I have never actually invested in WDT although I could never quite put my finger on why. And GEN is altogether a different type of company again, with its multiple lines. I've also followed it on and off, but again never invested.

My interest in BLT has always been that I see it travelling in a fairly straight line towards profit. I believe this last year has only failed to produce a profit because of the GRAS regulations tightening, and because the Costco seasonal rating prevented a full year of nationwide mass sales (that's my opinion, anyway) but the strategy still seems very sensible despite the setbacks, doesn't it?

Your talk of the potential of tax losses suggests you like your investments saltier than me though, as I like simple profitable operations. Despite my having hung with BLT a few years before the profit, I am fairly timid in my approach. I try to use a "can't fail" test, although that can never be cast iron naturally. BLT has seemed okay on that test (to me, anyway) because it only has to make a quite small profit to still be a perfectly reasonable investment, never mind doing much better than that. That has always been a baseline point for me.

I have no other investments in mind presently, as I am fairly focussed on the effects of rising interest rates that we seem finally to be witnessing around the world. Rising interest rates would seem likely to affect PEs around the world too (let alone the effects of any defaults etc), and I wonder if this may not be a bit dramatic. http://www.multpl.com/ has a chart of PEs over time, and you can see it got down to about 6 at worst in the 1930s, bounced back, then settled at around 10 for a couple of decades. Although that chart shows PEs dropping a lot recently, they only go down to 22 (on the S&P) which is consistent with interest rates not actually rising in the US yet - a PE of 22 is an interest rate of about 4.5%. History does not actually repeat, of course, but next year looks a bit interesting to me all the same. Some people love to invest into volatility, of course, but not really me.