NWE- the shell and possible 20 bagger

[Crypto Crude]

I have been informed that the NWE thread has gone (soldier marching on), and I have had to start a new one...
that thread was a masterpiece so no doubt those that want to do further research into what has already been posted can look at it here...

http://snitzforum.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=14520
....
The general salute is the best title for this thread, we have upgraded from a soldier even though the SP has be battered lately.... first puffin production is expected in a little over one month...
Norwest energy is one of the most undervalued oilers on the market, it is more than 100% undervalued on current assumptions...
NWE is on the brink of a new era as it leaves spec status behind... so lets bring in this new era with a new thread, and celebrate in style... still holding 50% of portfolio on this one stock....

[Serpie]

I've doubled my holding in NWE over the past 2 weeks Shrewdy.

Have sold of all of my rats and mice and put the funds into NWE and MRX at discount prices.

Hopefully we'll get news that Front Puffin has set sail very shortly, and that any delays at the wellhead have been sorted.

Even in a plunging market it's hard to argue with cash, which is what NWE will have bucket loads of in Q4 2007.

[Tech Step]

Apart from the puffin wells which I believe will provide NWE with ~70mil cash over the life of the reserve does NWE have much else going for it?

[Serpie]

I actually bought in initially (last year) because of the Bounder prospect (now re-named Cobra) but this has now been pushed into early 2008 for drilling.

I believe that Puffin is very much the NWE story for the remainder of this year, but something could come from left field at any time - with "left field" being India.

I'm sure that SC will provide a more detailed summary.

[Tech Step]

Serpie.

Is the puffin income enough to substantially move the SP though?

70mil income for a company valued at 50mil does not seem like much at all IMHO.

[Serpie]

Looking for safe havens at the moment TS, so anything with a revenue stream in place (or imminent) looks attractive.

I take your point though - Puffin has to be seen as a base, with additional value to be added by other projects.

In this case the substantial base that Puffin provides (by way of a royalty with little risk and no work) is ideal, but I dearly hope that the NWE team are not spending their days patting themselves on the back and checking the letterbox for AED cheques.

Bill Bloking has been on deck for a little while now, so I'm hopeful that he's earning his keep as well.

[Tech Step]

safe havens..........

I would kill for a safe haven LOL!

I personally can't see the SP moving conciderably because the SP would already have discounted the income from Puffin. I doubt that people would of missed the fact that they have money coming in soon...

I am keen to get into the oilers as I believe we will see 100USD a barrel by the end of next year. Even sooner of the US pull out of Iraq.

Even if we get to 100USd per barrel the SP will only move a fraction.

I am just inerested to see if there is any added value apart from the puffin results.

[Crypto Crude]

Tech Step

Apart from the puffin wells which I believe will provide NWE with ~70mil cash over the life of the reserve does NWE have much else going for it?

haha, does NWE have much going for it apart from that?... well that 70m is massive and yes it does have diversification through other assets...
you said 70million cash.... that is much larger than the market value of NWE... NWE is currently valued at 52million dollars... I reckon NWE will recieve above 100million in royalty payments from AED over a 5-6 year period...and that is without the upside, and what I currently believe will be extracted from the fields... markets are skeptical of 100m barrels recoverable from AED...

NWE have the 3 drill program later this year (aed AC/P22 drills) which NWE will have the 1.25% royalty over... so no doubt that favourable results will impact on NWE... the permit AC/P22 has some monster targets and upside through further discovery cannot be ruled out...

NWE have multiple permits in the North Sea, the Cobra Permit has already had a previous discovery which will get re-drilled...bharat farmed in with another Indian company and will contribute most of the costs... the other permits in the North Sea are surrounded by discoverys, infrastructure is in place, and NWE are in early days of exploration with scesmic detailing/ and interpretation in progress... Cobra is a go ahead as we stand...

NWE have a massive permit in that of AC/P32 where a drill next year will target two structures with 100-200m barrel potential, (first half drill).... JV with Coogee, who is a big fish...

currently has 8million cash, Indian conections(office and Bharat deals/relationships)...great managment... Bill bloking is a true professional... NWE also have a drill with ARQ in the first half of next year...

But yes, Puffin is NWE's biggest asset, it will produce incoming cashflow twice the current value of the company, with big upside... and NWE will have extensive work on their projects in the first half of next year through exploration drilling... exploration targets will be drilled in the AC/P22 program, AED will extensively explore AC/P22 and it is only time before AED discover more oil, we also have NE3 reserves which will hopefully be tied into NE FPSO at some stage...
To think that NWE willnot discover at all, or will that what currently the company offers is it, willnot be the case...serpie mentions the left field play.... on the right HS of the field is action aswell...
NWE is currently one of the cheapest oilers on the market...
expect a big re-rating as first puffin production comes online, NWE will be making so much cash that even they willnot know how to spend it... target drilling is a growth strategy which obviously poses a different set of risks... Cashflow streaming in will help offset some of these risks, as Cash balance will be increasing all the time....
as I have said, I have 50% of my 3 holdings on this one...
My old man is in this one... AED production this year in on/offshore Australia is the biggest program about to start production for years to come, this is where the action is... and little NWE will be there to collect chqs...

So to say that this is the end of the road for NWE in terms of further discoverys takes a person with a closed mind, we have all the steps being put into place for the growth, to get those big annoucements that the market just cannot factor in now will take some major drilling decisions on which structures to drill (3rd), and abit of luck... to get the big returns I am in the view that we donot need any further discoverys... to get to $1 plus we do...


Serpie

I actually bought in initially (last year) because of the Bounder prospect (now re-named Cobra) but this has now been pushed into early 2008 for drilling.


Sir pee...
Have you heard something I have not? last quarterly activitys report says that negotiations are still proceeding for a Cobra drill this year...?

[Crypto Crude]

I have just looked at the rating system, and at the moment the NWE thread has a one star, A one star means that people/posters reckon that this is a 'terrible' thread......
someone doesnot like me eah...... hahaha...
if you dig this topic then show some support and rate this thread.....
the NWE thread has made many people cash, and this one would be above 30cents now if it werent for market risk... damn its given people a chance to get in on the cheap...
having fallen from 35cents to 26cents...
If you are from RRS then bite me...

[Huang Chung]

Not p$ss$ing in you pocket or anything of the kind Shrewdy, but I'll give you five stars for your regular and well considered posts on NWE (and other oilers)......and I don't even hold the stock.

[macduffy]

Five stars from me too. The old thread was the best of the oilers IMHO. May the new one thrive!

[Serpie]

I just can't see it being drilled this year SC.
We're in August now and I believe that if it was going to be before Christmas then we'd have more details by now.
The quarterly said they were still in discussion with potential drill contractors, and that one hadn't been selected yet.
It has to be drilled by December 2008, so I'd be happy with Q1 2008.

[I.T.Ancient]

And another 5. I've held NWE for a while thanks to you Shrewdy and I've just sold my BHP to buy more NWE at these prices. No pressure - the decision is all mine, but your posts are appreciated.

[Crypto Crude]

thanx HC, Macd, IT...
when I first got into NWE it looked unbelieveable...
so I put 80% of my wealth on it, which I never had done before...(and I disclosed that fact) and everything else I did, I did end up selling down a few to buy into TEX at one stage...
the fundamentals have changed since I first got in and NWE looks just as attractive now as it did back then...

This company has changed, and here are the major changes that have occured since I have held back when SP was below 20cents...

-SW puffin upgrades, and market waking up to the SW after initially totally ignoring the region...
- We have seen a successful Puffin 8 production well, which sured up two production wells in the NE, and enhanced the economics of the field through lower average costs...
- We have recently been told about development of SW into production next year,
- The successful Puffin 8 well has increased possibility of increased flow rates from the NE.... (which were once expected to flow up to 40k perday, but now AED have gone soft on that figure)...
- We have been told that in the drilling program in the 4th quarter that SW will drill another production well...

most of these details were known but needed to be said by the company and proven, expectations can sometimes be different from actual outcome... the exceptional flow rates on Puffin 8 threw everybody off... and at the same time accusition of talbot field hasnot impacted on the importance of the Puffin fields to AED...
this company looks just as undervalued now as it did back 5 months ago when we did not have all of this new info confirmed...
These companys are the same companys that were present before market risk increased... NWE is the same company than what it was when SP touched 35cents...
AED is the same company than what it was when its SP touched $9.02, and is now $2.5 less than that... AED has had FPSO on loan at an estimated cost of 16million dollars...
NWE have revenues and no expenses in collecting these revenues......
....
NWE have a shot at a much larger company by laying down the ground work for multiple drilling next year (cobra a shot at this year)... and bar market risk, this company has no downside and big up... I will hold this company all the way until after SW first production at this stage, AED have said that SW will come into production around mid year, and looks like it could be a long shot IMO....

[Serpie]

You're the man Shrewdy! Great work.

[Oiler]

Let me add my two cents worth ......... Shrewdie has the amazing ability to be able to analyze in detail to most of us that dont have, dont care to, for whatever get down to the detail that he does.

There is no doubt in my mind that he is a true analytical oiler! Keep it up dude.... yo do man !

I have been able two double my exposure to NWE and other shares over the last week.

Bring on more of these healthy market corrections.

[bermuda]

If you are talking about Shrewdy you had better realise this kid is seriously talented.

I have met him and would back him on this thread through and through.

[Oiler]

Bermuda

I agree with you ...likewise I have met him and he certainly knows his s**t !!

I may be in the industry but look at it from his "anal" mind

I dont mind admitting he has done the leg work for me on a couple of buys but in the end I have made my own choice about wether to buy or not.

Go Shrewd Crude

[Serpie]

Thanks to Mhasibu on SS for posting info on Cobra.

If you have a look at Encore's website there's a presentation from early July that has their drilling schedule.
Cobra's booked in for 2008 Q2 at this stage.

www.encoreoil.co.uk

[mattyroo]

I am also of the opinion that NWE is the dogs bollix. I said a while back that I was overweight in NWE and that I wouldn't buy anymore........ BUT since then I have bought a vanload, especially in the last few days.

What reaffirms to me that NWE is a sound investment is that it has made the most rapid increase post this little correction of any stocks in my portfolio.

As Oiler2 pointed out, I am also in the industry, but enjoy and learn from looking at it from a different point of view - Shrewd's. Us in the industry we tend to work on a little "inside knowledge" so to speak, but may not be the best at picking the correct time to buy or sell. This is where a different perspective is truly valuable to me!

[Lizard]

Click on the "scales" icon at the top of one of Shrewd's posts and you can permanently add to his reputation on the forum. :cool:

[bermuda]

Lizard,
To be honest I cant really be bothered about this reputation bull****.
Is this something they have just introduced or was it on the other site?
Grateful your response.

[Crypto Crude]

Serpie
Cobra
Thanks to Mhasibu on SS for posting info on Cobra.

If you have a look at Encore's website there's a presentation from early July that has their drilling schedule.
Cobra's booked in for 2008 Q2 at this stage.

SIR PPEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeEe
maybe so, yes 3rd quarter drill is an outside shot and always was..helped on alittle through speculation driven by a few posters.... the company hasnot denied that the JV is in negotions with drilling contractorS, and its even printed in the latest NWE quarterly activitys report which is a more recent update than that of the encore presentation in 'early July'...haha.... (note- the s on the end of comtractors).... IMO, The JV is weighing up rushing into the drill vs finding the best deal for the JV... the terms of a drill in 3rd quarter would not look as attractive as a drill next year in terms of the offer..... because from my understanding, that a German contractor was on standby and prepared to drill 3rd quarter, and NWE havnot denied it.. if the Cobra drill was in 2nd quarter 08, then this would flow on nicely from 3 drill AC/P22 program, Cobra drill, AC/P32 drill, then ARQ drill (off memory TP/15 drill?)... then South West 1st production... then time to take a holiday... remember that most of the cost of Cobra drill are covered by the two Indian partners, and Cobra was a structure that has previously discovered gas...
replying to all the nice things that capital B said, oiler, mattyroo, IT,Mac D,HC, etc...
SIr peeeEeEeeeeEEEE and I were discussing it once before, and I totally agree that these people here are a great bunch of people to associate with because it makes an individual want to lift their game...I dream of one day being able to buy a micro stock like TEX...
or buying a NWE selling every single asset and then collecting royalty cheques many times larger than the value of the company... (at the beginning of the year a 40million offer)....20cents per share,50% premium to SP.... why would you not do this if you had 40million...? damn, I need a better relationship with my bank... haha... lata...

[Lizard]

Lizard,
To be honest I cant really be bothered about this reputation bull****.
Is this something they have just introduced or was it on the other site?
Grateful your response.

Hi Bermuda. A new feature on this forum.

Sharescene has a reputation feature, but a bit different from this one, since it is not anonymous and the scoring is a little more obvious. I'm not sure how many rep points it takes before a persons reputation card changes text from "on a distinguished road", but it is obviously more than one or two, so it would need a reasonably frequent use to make any difference.

My opinion, the most helpful aspect is probably to encourage good posters to keep posting (and bad ones to tone it down?). Maybe also useful for newbies to get a feel for who might be worth listening to?

[Serpie]

Shrewd Crude dreams of buying a $40M oil company.

Serpie dreams of buying a bigger TV and an electric wok - Serpie needs bigger goals!

I think the truth about the Cobra drill may lie somewhere in between the Encore report and the NWE report. Encore say Q2 2008, while NWE say that they're currently negotiating with drill contractors and haven't selected one yet. Which raises the obvious question, which is how can Encore have booked a drill slot when a contractor hasn't been appointed yet.

My only concern with the rumours surrounding the German drilling contractor is that they were first raised (I believe) by "Nazz" on HC, who has a track record of spectacular claims regarding NWE that don't amount to anything.

NWE up 10% on tiny volume (617k) yesterday. One way traffic which would suggest to me that it's being reasonably tightly held today. Hopefully we'll have more of the same today.


A belated reply to TechStep who asked "70mil income for a company valued at 50mil does not seem like much at all IMHO":

TS, you're right in saying that $70M income (or revenue) isn't much, but $70M net profit, or pretty close to it considering the NWE costs associated, looks pretty good.

As far the market already factoring in the Puffin income, I think that you are completely correct in saying that this was largely factored in, but when the SP was 35c pre-correction (assuming the corection is over) rather than at it's current level of 28c. Even then I think that Puffin may be worth another 5c on top of a 35c SP once production starts. All IMO only of course, and with perhaps a hint of optomism.

[xynz]

I tend to be very conservative with my investments. SC's thorough DD convinced me to see for myself; then I went all in with my downunder investments with an average SP of 21.2. When it was up at about 35, I put in stoploss orders at 27.5 that have since been triggered.

Because of Shrewdy's excellent analysis, I was able to make a solid gain of over 25% within just a couple of months.

He gets five stars from me.

I'm out of the market for the time being. I think NWE is solid, but I think it's caught up in a macro-economic movement, that is due to a burgeoning commercial credit crisis. This crisis was triggered by the sub-prime and alt-A mortgage market collapse in the US. Large hedge funds are writing off billions of dollars of CDO assets and it has a tremendous knock-on effect.

[Taijon]

SC or any other holders, have you done any projections/calculated just when NWE will receive their royalties? I ask this question because I don't think the share price will really take off until the initial royalties are actually received by NWE and likely subsequent receipts can be estimated/quantified. I've been thinking about when this might happen.

Some factors affecting this include:

(a) commissioning of the wells affects flowrates and quantity of oil pumped out, and we have learned from useful comments from Oiler and Roo on Sharetrader in relation to TUI that this takes time (anything up to 100 days or more from the time the first oil flows).

(b) the size of the royalty payment in a period will depend on the quantity of oil sold and the price received for it.

(b) There is sometimes a "grace period" before royalties start having to be paid (6 months or a year or more) - is this the case between AED and NWE?

(c) once the royaly payment system kicks in they are normally paid "in arrears". This might be 6 months or one year in arrears.

(d) depending on how NWE reports to shareholders about royalties received and for what period, it could be some time before shareholders know exactly what is happening.

I agree the royalty revenue is going to be great for NWE shareholders but it seems to me it could well be mid 2008 or later before NWE actually gets any royalties coming in. Any more accurate projections?

[Serpie]

Gidday Taijon,

I believe that the royalties are paid quarterly in arrears.

The delays so far, with the FPSO and reported problems at the wellhead, have been mildly frustrating. Once we get news of first oil then I hope that the full value will get factored in, regardless of any possible subsequent delays with payments etc.

[Tech Step]

well I jumped on board today 18k shares at an average price of 28.7c (Just a small parcel compared to most I ma sure)

looking foreard to them pumping oil!

[Crypto Crude]

1.....SC or any other holders, have you done any projections/calculated just when NWE will receive their royalties?

2.....I ask this question because I don't think the share price will really take off until the initial royalties are actually received by NWE and likely subsequent receipts can be estimated/quantified.

3.....I've been thinking about when this might happen.
Some factors affecting this include:

commissioning of the wells affects flowrates and quantity of oil pumped out, and we have learned from useful comments from Oiler and Roo on Sharetrader in relation to TUI that this takes time (anything up to 100 days or more from the time the first oil flows).

4....the size of the royalty payment in a period will depend on the quantity of oil sold and the price received for it.

5.....There is sometimes a "grace period" before royalties start having to be paid (6 months or a year or more) - is this the case between AED and NWE?

6.....once the royaly payment system kicks in they are normally paid "in arrears". This might be 6 months or one year in arrears.

7......depending on how NWE reports to shareholders about royalties received and for what period, it could be some time before shareholders know exactly what is happening.

8.......I agree the royalty revenue is going to be great for NWE shareholders but it seems to me it could well be mid 2008 or later before NWE actually gets any royalties coming in. Any more accurate projections?

1....as Serpie said that Royalty checks are collected quarterly in arrears...
I cant remember the exact details and on down to which day/ week NWE gets paid... its of no significance in the overall picture to me other than we are paid quarterly in arrears.. shasta had a better understanding of those details than I..?

2..... Before NWE I had never invested into a company that has collected such large revenues through royaltys, I donot agree with you on what you have said here.. and intuition tells me that the company will re-rate at production rather than when the royalty check will be collected and banked...
companys do allow for the fact that these revenue streams are building and are disclosed in their financial statements, and it is called 'accrued revenue'... as a current asset...

3.... first of all, I am far more confident with this project than that of TUI... TUI never disclosed flow rates and AED have...and the project has already had delays so first production willnot be many months off... latest company announcement said late august/early sept.... mattyroo and I have previously said sept.... oct... whatever.... as long as its coming then it dont matter...
Puffin has had its delays as have most other projects being comissioned? mattyroo will best be able to answer questions about this....

4.....yes that is totally true... this is why NWE was booming is SP a few weeks back when oil prices were tipping real high, but have now fallen by $5 bucks a barrel... so when barrels will be flowing, NWE will have a higher correlation to the price of oil as price differentials will play a large role in the total royaltry recieved from AED....

5....no grace its royalty straight from the bat.... yes Royolcos royalty over Ocieania golds reefton project had a delay before royaltys kicked in...

6.... quarterly as serpie has said...

7....Im sure NWE will keep shareholders fully informed about the situation and NWE have nott been afraid of making market announcements when AED have made stellar upgrades, or successfull drilling results... I am not concerned about this...remember that NWE has no contact with AED... NWE get the same info that everybody else gets which is market published... there is no talk between AED, and NWE from what I have been told....

8.... cheques will arrive before then...I wouldnot want to speculate on exactly when... its no concern to me if we get first cheque in Dec or Feb... first production is more important than that...


to do with the yearly cashflow net to NWE....
"on the old NWE thread forwhich there is a link on the very first post of the new thread.... a bunch of us all put forward valuations including shasta and I.... so just go and check it out... you will have to change the numbers around because some were working on flow rates of 40k barrels per day after Puffin 8 came in rather a surprise which flow tested, and flow rates at first production of 15-20k were expected...

[mattyroo]

The Front Puffin FPSO made was scheduled to depart Singapore today at 1pm, this was the third time it was supposed to leave, yet again due to the serious problems on board it did not leave. From what I understand it may be some time before it leaves. This is costing AWE a bomb every day, money which comes directly off their bottom line. Fortunately this does not affect NWE's bottom line, just means that it delays their ORR.

[Oiler]

The Front Puffin FPSO made was scheduled to depart Singapore today at 1pm, this was the third time it was supposed to leave, yet again due to the serious problems on board it did not leave. From what I understand it may be some time before it leaves. This is costing AWE a bomb every day, money which comes directly off their bottom line. Fortunately this does not affect NWE's bottom line, just means that it delays their ORR.

This sounds familiar, Umaroa was pushed out of the yard before it was finished. It sounds to me there is a planning/scheduling/quality control issues at Keppel Shipyard. :confused:

[mattyroo]

This sounds familiar, Umaroa was pushed out of the yard before it was finished. It sounds to me there is a planning/scheduling/quality control issues at Keppel Shipyard. :confused:

Oiler,

It is not the shipyards that have these issues, it is the construction companies.

The construction companies plan their schedule then book the slot at the shipyard, the shipyard then quite rightfully books another vessel into the slot after the "intended sail away date" of the first vessel. These vessels never leave on time.

The problem is that the shipyards are just too busy at the moment.

The problem with the Puffin has nothing to do with the shipyard......

The FPSO I am currently commissioning is also well behind schedule.

[macduffy]

Considering that NWE's major asset is its ORR over the Puffin field, I am surprised that the share price is not correlated more closely to that of AED.
A few minutes ago, AED sp had moved +42c today - +6.8%.
NWE hasn't moved!
I know there's more to NWE than Puffin but any ideas out there on this point?

[macduffy]

Just had another look.
Big spread in the bid/offer so maybe the +6.8% ( now 8% ) won't last the day!

[Crypto Crude]

macduffy,
NWE and AED are correlated...
you will notice by comparing the charts that both stocks now are at the levels they were on, in May... both stocks have fallen 10% over the two previous trading days... and NWE had 3 days before that of sp rising 14%...when AED's didnt... so AED are playing catchup I guess...
they have both been uptrending over a period stretching back before the beginning of this year....they both share the same asset and they both recently took a hit....
(aed fell from 9.02 to what it is currently, NWE fell from 34-35cents to 26)...
so yes they both do have the same general pattern, stocks that are correlated donot have to trade exactly the same on a given day...(perfectly correlated stocks do, and these arent perfectly correlated stocks, and I will explain further

AED do have cost blowouts(160k US per day for FPSO on loan) which is effecting the company in a different way to NWE which has zero costs and no extraction costs, doesnot need to set contracts, equipment, staff, etc in order to collect cheques...
so the cost structures are different (costs vs zero costs, so delays impact differently)...
you see AED have layed out lots of cash which is currently not returning anything (yet), and NWE have layed out nothing apart from a postal address to send the chqs to...

I think that maybe NWEers are alittle more aware of the situation with further delays expected after Mattyroo posted here, and the general market would not be looking at this thread, But many NWEers do.. and the general market is still not be aware of the situation around delays... so AED investors started to buy today on the back of falling SP yesterday...
this is a great project and smart investors buy on dips....

one other point is that at this early stage NWE investors are looking to AED for direction on how to value this project into investing decisions... EG, if AED is strong then NWE investors think, oh this is positive... when production starts then NWE will have a mind of its own, and willnot be tied into AED happens as much... because AED is getting pulled down because of cost over-runs and this is pulling NWE down, even though cost overruns donot effect NWE...

[macduffy]

Thanks S-C. Good points, particularly the impact of costs on AED.
I got a bit excited when I saw the strength of AED today without corresponding movement in NWE.

Disc. NWE/AOE/BPT/STO

[mattyroo]

Time to double up.

[hods]

Is it on the move mattyroo?

[Sideshow Bob]

Only on the move down - 22c

[xynz]

This correction has been a long time coming. It's mainly because of the smoke and mirrors that have been used to keep the US economy going.

Remember the Enron scandal? Well, the people who've been running the US for the last 6 years are even less honest.

The US has been steadily exporting production capacity, while increasing its consumption: this has led to a huge trade deficit. The only thing the US consistently produces for export is IP: software, music, movies and TV. Their cars are crap; Toyota has overtaken GM to become the world's #1 auto manufacturer.

The US had a real-estate boom, like we've had in NZ. But in the US, the boom was driven by low mortgage interest rates, rates you'll probably never see in NZ. Back in 2004, my mom bought her Florida apartment with a 15 year mortgage that has a fixed interest rate just a little below 5%. Can you imagine what would happen to the NZ real-estate market, if borrowers could get a 30 year mortgage that was fixed at 6.5% interest? On top of that, the interest is tax-deductible in the US.

Everybody and their dog was getting a mortgage to buy a house; real-estate prices were rocketing upwards. The people who already owned their homes, saw their home equity increase by tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, they took out a 2nd mortgage at about 7% and went on a spending spree. That party ran for almost 5 years....

The problem was, the housing market became saturated. Everyone who could buy a home, bought one. To keep the party going, lenders began to lend money to people who shouldn't buy a home.

People who couldn't afford to pay a mortgage came into the market by getting ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages). The ARM is like a standard Kiwi mortgage: the rate goes up and down. The problem with the US ARMs is that they were sold to the buyers with low teaser rates: like 4%. Some mortgages gave buyers payments they could afford by giving them a year or so of interest only payments . Other mortgages were even worse: they were negative amortization loans, where the initial payments couldn't even keep up with the interest and the excess interest was added to the principle.

This was the foundation for the current sub-prime and the alt-A mortgage crisis. Now that the ARMs are readjusting to the higher rates, the people who shouldn't have bought are defaulting and losing their homes. That's putting more homes on the market.

Once these defaults began, the lenders tightened their lending criteria, so that took buyers out of the market.

And the home builders couldn't just stop the projects that were already in the works, so they finished those up and that put even more homes on the market.

A glut in the supply and a drop in the demand: the US real-estate market is now in a freefall.

How did this affect the global credit market? Well, billions of dollars in mortgages were packaged together into CDOs: Collateralized Debt Obligations. These were sold to large investors, as AAA bonds. What could be safer than an investment that was based on the value of real-estate?

The problem is, not only are these investments failing to deliver their returns, but their collateral is evaporating. The value of the homes used as collateral is plummeting. Large investment funds are now writing off billions in assets, because their AAA CDOs have turned out to be no better than DDD junk bonds.

Equity is disappearing and liquidity is disappearing along with it.

70% of the US GDP is driven by consumer spending. US consumers have gone heavily into debt to maintain their lifestyle, they've had a negative savings rate for the last 5 years or so. That debt was enabled by the increase in their home equity...but now that's gone. Where will the US consumers find the money to keep spending? Their pay packets? Not likely: stagnating pay is the reason why they've gone so far into debt, in the first place.

The US share market was not only riding on the home equity driven consumer spending boom, but also on cheap credit from the US Federal Reserve (their central bank). The Fed was supplying cheap money for M&A activity. That was driving up share prices, just like the cheap mortgages were driving up the value of the real-estate market.....

Now, the cheap debt party is ending. Liquidity is evaporating. The only way the Fed can keep the party going, is to keep shoveling in the cheap commercial credit. But how long can that go on for? How many more dollars can they push into the market, before the already heavily over-valued USD, collapses?

The USD has undergone a "graceful" collapse over the last 5 years or so: it's already lost about 40% of it's value against the Euro.

There were three things keeping the USD afloat.

#1 It's been the reserve currency for global commerce. This has been buttressed by an OPEC policy that requires oil be paid for in USDs. This creates a demand for USDs. But, the Euro has been overtaking the USD in this regard. Global cash transactions and bond offerings in Euros has surpassed those in USDs.

#2 China has purchased about 1 trillion dollars in US debt. This sucks up some of the USD over-supply. China has also artificially inflated the value of the USD by a dejure fixed exchange rate. The Yuan is pegged to the USD.

#3 Japan has purchased about 600 billion dollars in US debt, also sucking up some of the supply. Japan helps to artificially inflate the USD by practicing a defacto fixed exchange rate. The Yen floats, but all Japanese goods sold in the US have a fixed USD price.

Over the last few years, nations have been very slowly shifting their reserves away from the USD. Nobody wants to start a run, because then everybody gets hurt. So far, the movement has been orderly.

But, the USD has started its fall and it hasn't hit the bottom yet. The credit crunch has begun and it is going to get worse: as the US sub-prime and alt-A crisis escalates (we've only seen the beginning of the interest rate reset wave).

What is happening right now is a GRACEFUL collapse of an unsustainable economy. But, if it gets out of control, then it could get very, very ugly.

"China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml

[Serpie]

Phase 1 of "Operation Get All of Serpies Money Back" successfully executed today with a nice rally from NWE.
Now just need Phases 2-29 to go according to plan, and I'll be back to where I started from 3 weeks ago.

NWE up 16% today, and an AED announcement confirming the booking of a second FPSO for Puffin.

On the flip side Matty was once again on the ball with the inside word that Front Puffin FPSO still not seaworthy.

Let's hope for a flat (or better) night on the DOW to allow some support to build in the mid 20's.

[seaosh]

I topped up on Thursday when it was at 21 and 22 cents. Looking good in retrospect.

[Tech Step]

People still holding this one?

If you look at their chart there is a very nive inverse head and shoulders formation which should lead to a reversal in the downward trend...

[seaosh]

I'm still in. I sold the ones I picked up when it dropped back to 21-22 cents, but I've still got the rest of my holding.

[mamos]

Nigel Wilson, Energy writer | September 04, 2007

PRODUCTION hopeful AED Oil has given market sceptics cause to re-think after the arrival of its new floating production, storage and offtake vessel off the west Australian coast.
FPSO Front Puffin, operated by the British-owned group Aibel which has Norwegian headquarters, is being loaded with supplies and undergoing final engineering work and certification off the burgeoning exploration supply base at Truscott, a former World War II air base in the far north of Western Australia.
David Dix, chairman of AED Oil, believes initial oil will flow from its 100 per cent owned Puffin field in Australian waters in the Timor Sea about 700km west of Darwin by about the middle of September.
The field is about 80km south of the Challis and Jabiru oil fields and about 25km from the Skua field.
Puffin production will ramp up gradually to a design capacity of 30,000 barrels a day.
The leased Front Puffin is a converted oil tanker, which that has just been refitted in the Keppel yards in Singapore with a gas processing suite on its topside. It has a storage capacity of about 650,000 barrels, and aims to supply shuttle tankers to refineries in the Asian region.
It attaches to a swivelling buoy attached to a riser at Puffin through a "moon pool" in the bottom of the vessel's hull rather than more usual bow turret used in Australian FPSOs. The moon pool is a patented system involving a big steel cylinder with a central opening.
Both systems are designed to allow the vessel to disconnect from the field on the approach of bad weather.
AED Oil was listed in May 2005 and is operator of the Puffin field in Northern Territory permit AC/L6.
"The arrival of the Front Puffin represents a major achievement for the company," Mr Dix said. "It's involved a major effort by everyone associated with AED Oil and it's a tribute to them that we have got this far in such a short time."
AED Oil, though one of the best-performing stocks on the exchange in the past year, has attracted some scepticism because it has no track record as an oil or gas producer.
Puffin was found by ARCO in 1972 and has had a number of owners, before finally being bought by AED Oil for $3.5 million in vendor shares.
AED Oil believes that with Puffin and the Talbot field about 65km to the west, which it hopes to bring into production next year, it will recover more than 100 million barrels of oil.
Mr Dicks says marketing of initial production from Puffin has been sold to the French giant Total, which is increasingly active off northwest Australia in the Timor Sea and the Browse Basin.
The first cargo of the light sweet crude - rated at 44 API gravity, similar to the Asian benchmark Tapis - has been pre-sold by Total to Caltex and will be shipped to its refineries at Kurnell in Sydney and Lytton in Brisbane.
AED Oil anticipates that about 10 million barrels of oil will be produced in the first 12 months of the field's production life.
Currently the Puffin Oil can be sold for more than $100 a barrel.
Initial production from the Puffin field will be from the Puffin-7 subsea well in the north-east area of the field, with a second well, Puffin-8, being brought on later in the year.
AED Oil estimates proven and probable reserves from this area alone will be about 40 million barrels of oil.
Nigel Wilson visited FPSO Front Puffin as a guest of AED Oil

[macduffy]

The middle of September has arrived. Has there been any news?

[ScrappyO]

The middle of September has arrived. Has there been any news?

I had it down as October for production?

[macduffy]

AED Chairman expected "the middle of September."

[Serpie]

Rumour has it (KB on SS) that Front Puffin in onsite. Not long now.

[Huang Chung]

NWE thread has been quiet of late......

Noticed AED put on 10.7% today, and NWE 4.7%. Googled AED to see if there was any news about achieveing first oil, but drew a blank.

Any thoughts people?


Disc: Hold AED

[tricha]

No news, but the price is like u say, going for it, a bit like DLS last Friday Huang.

The ASX must be on holiday, no speeding tickets issued again.;)

Good to see u have some quality oil in your portfolio, when the herd catches on we should get a re-rating of the energy sector soon, as U has died in the ass.

And just in case u did not catch it Huang, Otto Energy is my next powerplay. ( Peter Strachan rates it highly)

[mattyroo]

I reckon it was speculators betting on an announcement in the next couple of days that drove the SP of both AED and NWE yesterday. Those in the know probably sold out today and will buy back in again at a lower price. Just my opinion. Am trying to get some further info......

[Huang Chung]

I actually tried to bail on AED today at about $9.80, but missed out, so I'm still holding.

[KKelv]

Should be a great couple of weeks for NWE

puffin 8 should be pumping as I type and puffin 7 to be bought on line very soon. Any predictions for price? I'm thinking 40 early next week rising to 45 in 2 weeks.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Take a look at the news posted at 12.34 for NWE on Direct Broking - it gives the details.
Is this opportunity?
Looks good.

[Mick100]

ASX Announcement
8 October 2007
First Oil Production and Drilling Update
Puffin- NE Development
AED (AED or the Company) advises that the Puffin North East Development has
commenced production, with first hydrocarbons from Puffin-8 reaching topsides at
16.21 hours last Saturday, 6 October.
Puffin-8 has been producing up to around 12,000 stb/d on a ¾ inch choke before
being shut in, and Puffin-7 has subsequently been commissioned, reaching a maximum
rate of around 16,000 stb/d over night.
Currently, the flow from both wells is being combined and the plan is to gradually
increase the total flow through the process facilities to the interim commissioning
rate of 27,000 stb/d late today, before progressing to stabilized production rate.
Puffin SW drilling Update
Further to the ASX release on 5 October 2007 the Company advises that the Wilcraft
drilling rig is now on location and is in preparation to commence drilling the Puffin-10
production well located in the Puffin SW region.

[Huang Chung]

Judging by the muted share price reaction for both NWE and AED today to AED's announcement of 'first oil' from Puffin, it would seem that the the news had largely been factored into the respective share prices.

Still, a very nice run over the last few weeks.

Shrewdy, any thoughts as to were we go from here?

[Serpie]

I can see us floating around in the mid 30's for a while HC. Unless we get some news from the North Sea.

[Huang Chung]

I was holding AED Serpie, but sold out at $9.54, so I missed out on the last bit of the rise. Will continue to watch with interest.

[Crypto Crude]

HC,
things are heating up with Puffin 10 production well drilling...
... NWE is a great company with some big drilling coming up in puffin, and backed up by exploration drilling next year...
exploration failure is downside protected with the revenue stream from puffin NE, and next year SW...
much is going to happen here over the next year... I may consider getting back in at some stage..
Id be prepared to put my grandma on this stock I reckon...
little down, big up...
:cool:
.^sc

[macduffy]

SC
I take it you think its not the right time to buy NWE?

Disc: Small holding NWE.

[Crypto Crude]

I do think it is the time to buy NWE...
it has recently pulled back from 34-35c...
and it is suppost to commence puffin 10 production well drilling today, (havent yet seen an ann)....
followed by puffin drilling program with exploration targets... and then followed by SW production next year in first half...
it looks great to me...
add in North sea drilling, and AC/P32 drilling with hundreds of millions of barrels target potential...
back to back exploration drilling coming up...
NWE will still rise regardless of 100% failure in exploration drilling...
very favouable if you ask me...
:cool:
.^sc

[MPC]

I have been doing fun little 10% trades on this for the last few weeks. Back in now at 31.5 and expecting a move up to the next level soon. AED down a bit the last couple of days but looking sweet for the mid term view..

Cheers,
MPC

[macduffy]

SC
Still a bit mystified why you would not hold NWE at this time when you are long AUD?

[Crypto Crude]

macduffy,
We were tipped off by a highly respected poster here that first production would be delayed...I saw it as an opportunity for me to sell and get some CUE, ride in first Oyong production and then back into NWE... it didnot quite work out like that... I had added incentive to sell when markets turned bad... but I only wanted to have a certain percentage on the market so It was either CUE or NWE... and with the potential delays it came down to a timing issue which I got wrong... I bought LMPO at 1.6c because it has supreme leverage unlike anything else ive seen....
I guess I mucked up but I still rode NWE from 16.8c average to 25c selling average with 80% of my wealth... Im still a real big fan of NWE and its journey has only just begun really... I guess I will be thinking of buying some back amongst other stocks that I highly rate... NWE is now less speccy than what it used to be... the big returns are still present...
...
Some advice that I got was to wait for a falling market day to get back in... and that day never really came eah... still waiting for that ellusive day...
in only something like 25% in markets... im holding CUE for at least another year... I highly rate the company, but will be slow going and have to be highly patient just like what the early entrants faced with NWE, TEX currently and other spec oilers...
:cool:
.^sc

[macduffy]

SC

Thanks for clearing that up. Now feel much more comfortable about my minor holding in NWE ( bought between 20 -26c ).
Tempted to add at todays price but may wait for a possible trough.

[seaosh]

I'd be topping up today if I didn't have a big swag already. . . Some just went through at 28.

Wonder if SC got them?

[Tok3n]

Production rates scaled back at puffin.

People still keen on this one?

[mattyroo]

Not a good announcement at all!!

Much higher than expected water cut, lots of sand, which is very bad. Causes all sorts of grief with separation facilities.....

I see Mr KB is still ramping the pants off it over at SSC however. I will give it a few more weeks and see where things turn from here, but I have had a bit of a sentiment change post this announcement! Still the oil isn't going to go away, however if the sand cut goes high AED may have to drill more wells to try and maintain decent flowrates and we all know how much they cost to drill.

A fall in the POO and a further drop in flowrates and they won't be making a whole lot.....

[shasta]

Not a good announcement at all!!

Much higher than expected water cut, lots of sand, which is very bad. Causes all sorts of grief with separation facilities.....

I see Mr KB is still ramping the pants off it over at SSC however. I will give it a few more weeks and see where things turn from here, but I have had a bit of a sentiment change post this announcement! Still the oil isn't going to go away, however if the sand cut goes high AED may have to drill more wells to try and maintain decent flowrates and we all know how much they cost to drill.

A fall in the POO and a further drop in flowrates and they won't be making a whole lot.....

Mattyroo

The oil is still there & NWE has no downside from the extra drills, if required thats the AED risk?

NWE is a nice little cash box & those cheques will start coming in, when the oil starts flowing...

Agree the ann wasnt too flash, but more so for AED than NWE.

[mattyroo]

Shasta,

Yep, my post is more aimed at AED than NWE. With the ORR, NWE's money comes from the oil that is extracted, before costs or anything that AED is exposed to. Therefore as you quite rightly point out, NWE have little downside.

I just post on the NWE thread as I sold out of my AED before the July correction. I was disillusioned in them as I knew exactly what was going on in Singapore with the FPSO, and that they had agreed to handover well before it was ready. More of a moral standpoint than a financial one!!!

I wonder how much of todays SP fall was stop losses being triggered by people who had got in right before first oil???

[shasta]

Shasta,

Yep, my post is more aimed at AED than NWE. With the ORR, NWE's money comes from the oil that is extracted, before costs or anything that AED is exposed to. Therefore as you quite rightly point out, NWE have little downside.

I just post on the NWE thread as I sold out of my AED before the July correction. I was disillusioned in them as I knew exactly what was going on in Singapore with the FPSO, and that they had agreed to handover well before it was ready. More of a moral standpoint than a financial one!!!

I wonder how much of todays SP fall was stop losses being triggered by people who had got in right before first oil???

I looked again at NWE, but its done nothing since i sold out ages ago at 30c.

So bought OEL & PSA instead...

I'm fast becoming a BLACK GOLD bug :D

[seaosh]

Well bloody hell, my biggest holding has had the **** well and truly kicked out of it. . . I go out for dinner and come home to find a massacre. It was still looking good to close on 30 cents when I left.

Still this has surely been a little overdone?

I'm still well in profits anyway, so I figure I'll sit this out for now.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi,
You can access this from the Direct Broking Site.

What do you reckon for the SP?

rgds

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Well there is news on the ASX including Front Puffin takes 328,000 barrels @ $ per barrel
... and will be back in mid November for another lot ... Puffin 10 Drill complete mid Dec ...

Therefore what?

[axion]

Nothing which gets announced seems to make any difference and I don't think there'll be any sort of large-ish movement until we get the first cheque.

I was actually having a wee play around with googles new finance area and found this image interesting

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/7479/nweaedqs6.jpg

They were both trading together, and then they separate and at it's max we have a 50% disparity between them (starting at them being 0% 6months ago)

[seaosh]

NWE looks like it may string together a second good day and close around 30 cents.

Yesterday saw a good move up, and it's had a pretty big first hour of trade today.

Wonder if the shrewd one got back in already?

[seaosh]

On second thoughts maybe I should go back and delete the title on my last post.

Let's hope NWE doesn't do a Britney on us.

[MPC]

Depth is looking encouraging again and could do a nice little 20% run soon I feel.

[Serpie]

Wonder if the shrewd one got back in already?

I'd imagine that when The Shrewd One returns to NWE there will be much fanfare. He's not the type to slip quietly in the back door.

Certainly ready to return to the low 30's, as long as the DOW behaves itself. Could see profit takers ravage it at those levels though, so needs news to attract the next wave of punters.

I hold.

[bermuda]

I'd imagine that when The Shrewd One returns to NWE there will be much fanfare. He's not the type to slip quietly in the back door.

Certainly ready to return to the low 30's, as long as the DOW behaves itself. Could see profit takers ravage it at those levels though, so needs news to attract the next wave of punters.

I hold.

Serpie,
Let me know if you dont know King Baz
Cheers mate

[Serpie]

Serpie,
Let me know if you dont know King Baz
Cheers mate

I've sent you a PM Bermuda.

[Tech Step]

I doubled up at 27c which I am happy about.

There definately seems to be a heap of interest at the moment in this stock.

Long term this could be amazing, However it is not for the faint hearted.

cheers

Tech Step.

[tricha]

I doubled up at 27c which I am happy about.

There definately seems to be a heap of interest at the moment in this stock.

Long term this could be amazing, However it is not for the faint hearted.

cheers

Tech Step.

Well I doubled up today at 22 cents, added 100,000.

Correct me if I am wrong, Northwest earn 1.25 % of all oil produced and if AED costs go up 100% and they need to borrow another 75 million so what.
Where does that effect Northwest ?????

When AED get to 20,000 barrells a day, 250 barrells will go to NWE at $100 = $25,000 a day at no cost.

$175,000 a week to NWE at no cost. For a very long time and upside to come.

Either I have got it horrible wrong or Mr market has, time and patience will tell as always :p

[tricha]

Where is everyone today :confused: , Northwest cheaper again today, so took the pleasure in topping up again today.

It's like the Wharehouse where everyone gets a bargain.

Actually Northwest must be a steal at this price, especially if oil maintains its value.

It is printing money with no outlay what so ever. Not really printing it, just cashing the cheques that AED supply. :rolleyes:

How stupid is Mr Market, AED rightly hammered, but hey NWE does not have these costs associated.

Food for thought guys..;)

[Kropotkin]

i agree tricha - very strange indeed...
still, yet another oportunity to soak up some spare heads lying around after stop-loss triggers :)

let me check my piggy bank.....

trouble is i need to save a bit for OEL too!

[wack]

AED release today that they are confdient to get back up toward 20000 bopd within 3 months and an addition well for NE Puffin increasing production further in first half 08.
This sound more optomistic than their earlier statements. This puppy gotta be oversold though am concerned at the depth of the hole it has got into . .May take some time, or positive announcement from elsewhere to get back on track.

[Serpie]

I've been scraping up the loose change yesterday and today Tricha, and topped up at 22 and 20.5.
Too cheap at these levels, and agree that recovery costs related to Puffin do not affect NWE.

Interesting post on SS stated that even at 10,000bopd the increased price of Tapis still results in NWE getting around 90% of the revenue that they originally expected from 20,000bopd.
The bonus of course is that, as long as the reserve size is unchanged, this revenue stream will continue for twice as long at 10,000bopd, so it's all good for NWE.

[seaosh]

Nice buying Serpie. . . It looks like it's staging a comeback.

Would have liked to grab more myself at 21 cents, but money not enough lah. . .

[Hawke]

Wow- I got a stash of NWE today at 20.5- REAL bargain stuff.

Hawke.

[Serpie]

Cheers Seaosh,

If the DOW bounces tonight then 20.5 will be an absolute steal. If I wasn't playing with chump change I'd be pretty stoked right now! Today's close of 23.5 is still way undervalued IMHO, so perhaps we should be hoping for the NWE SP slump to continue so we can fill our boots.

NWE AGM is next Thursday, so they're running out of time to announce any developments about Indian connections or North Sea activities, but Puffin is still the golden goose.

It's time for NWE management to deliver though. They've been too quiet for too long.

[shasta]

Cheers Seaosh,

If the DOW bounces tonight then 20.5 will be an absolute steal. If I wasn't playing with chump change I'd be pretty stoked right now! Today's close of 23.5 is still way undervalued IMHO, so perhaps we should be hoping for the NWE SP slump to continue so we can fill our boots.

NWE AGM is next Thursday, so they're running out of time to announce any developments about Indian connections or North Sea activities, but Puffin is still the golden goose.

It's time for NWE management to deliver though. They've been too quiet for too long.

Strange how apart from a brief stint over 30c, since i've been out its hardly threatened to break out above 30c again.

I keep up to date with NWE via SS, but cant work out why its slipping?

Any ideas, Serpie?

[axion]

Seems to still be a bit of skepticism, which over at SS they reckoned would be over once we cashed our first check. I think it should be coming fairly soon?

[bermuda]

Seems to still be a bit of skepticism, which over at SS they reckoned would be over once we cashed our first check. I think it should be coming fairly soon?


I wont do it but my opinion of this stock is huge.

I sold out and bought some other good ones but tonite it came over me that if I had to have one stock this would be it at these levels.

Gauranteed income.

I might have to re enter

Good luck guys,,could be big.

[Serpie]

I keep up to date with NWE via SS, but cant work out why its slipping?
Any ideas, Serpie?

I posted a question on SS about 8 months ago about the opportunity cost of holding NWE at that time. I think the SP was in the low 20's then, and there was some frustration about how slowly things were moving.
Well, it's nearly Christmas, and the one concrete thing that NWE has going for it (Puffin) is not exactly turning to custard, but it's not going great.
The SP is still in the low 20's, and a lot of confidence has been lost. In a dynamic market it's hard to sit on your hands and hang on to NWE. In the last few days some of the long term holders have packed up their bags, and some of the traders who bought in the high 20's are cutting their losses.
The only ones that are left are the true believers, the optomists, and the lazy, lethargic, procrastinators like myself.

If you want to read NWE then I think you need to be able to read KB on SS. By watching him, and noting subtle changes in his manner, you can make some guesses about the short term expectations for NWE.
He's saying nothing at the moment, which can be taken 2 ways. Either he's selling down, or he buying up. I think he's buying up big-time. No one knows NWE better than KB, so I think he's keeping his mouth shut, and letting all of the other chatterboxes talk each other into dropping their bundles into his waiting arms.

With the DOW on holiday today the ASX will be interesting. Without the DOW sheep leading them, all of the ASX sheep won't know which way to run.

[bermuda]

I posted a question on SS about 8 months ago about the opportunity cost of holding NWE at that time. I think the SP was in the low 20's then, and there was some frustration about how slowly things were moving.
Well, it's nearly Christmas, and the one concrete thing that NWE has going for it (Puffin) is not exactly turning to custard, but it's not going great.
The SP is still in the low 20's, and a lot of confidence has been lost. In a dynamic market it's hard to sit on your hands and hang on to NWE. In the last few days some of the long term holders have packed up their bags, and some of the traders who bought in the high 20's are cutting their losses.
The only ones that are left are the true believers, the optomists, and the lazy, lethargic, procrastinators like myself.

If you want to read NWE then I think you need to be able to read KB on SS. By watching him, and noting subtle changes in his manner, you can make some guesses about the short term expectations for NWE.
He's saying nothing at the moment, which can be taken 2 ways. Either he's selling down, or he buying up. I think he's buying up big-time. No one knows NWE better than KB, so I think he's keeping his mouth shut, and letting all of the other chatterboxes talk each other into dropping their bundles into his waiting arms.

With the DOW on holiday today the ASX will be interesting. Without the DOW sheep leading them, all of the ASX sheep won't know which way to run.

That is my read as well.I think KB is buying.

Pakistan news is big, especially as Musharraf had a meeting in Saudia Arabia last week.Explosive.

Aussie will be quiet.

[seaosh]

Who is this KB?

[macduffy]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is SS?

Hold NWE

[Serpie]

KB is King Baz
SS is an aussie stock chatsite. Sharescene (not sure if that will get through the mods - sorry Vince!).

KB is a very vocal poster on the SS NWE thread, and appears to represent a large shareholding, both directly and indirectly.
KB is NWE's biggest cheerleader, and is very helpful because he studies the releases from NWE, and their partners around the world, summarises them, and highlights points that he believes to be of interest.
He is very much the leader of the pro-NWE brigade, which unfortunately also makes him the biggest target.

[Serpie]

I've just started reading about Peak Oil Bermuda. Your comments at the last ChCh meeting got me interested. I'm only getting started, but scary stuff!
Hopefully when I learn a bit more I'll be able to ask you some intelligent questions. Until then, I'm hanging on to my oilers!

Agreed - Aussie will be quiet today. It's a good day for the Aussie traders to have off and consider their voting strategy for tomorrow. Might be a good day to sell Uranium stocks too.

[seaosh]

Never read SS but the name King Baz seems familiar. Did he used to post here as well?

[Serpie]

Not that I'm aware of, but if you've been following NWE (which I know you have with great success) then you would've heard of King Baz.

[axion]

I did notice one post by KB this last week it went something like

"I just spoke to the CEO .... I think I'll keep my mouth shut!" with, IIRC, some smilies pointed around the show.

I also wouldn't trust KB whole-heartidly, though. He was trying to argue with mattyroo over at SS about technical things to do with the drilling. Which seems to be a stupid thing to do when mattyroo is in the industry and has worked on these things before

[Serpie]

I wouldn't trust anyone posting on these forums wholeheartedly Axion. Everyones in it for themselves.
KB just stated that he's purchased "7 figures worth" of NWE this week. This should be backed up by some SSH notices out to confirm this soon, but it's not helping the SP again today.

[Crypto Crude]

KB is a businessman.... and when your running a business nothing gets in the way of making a sale...you see, axion.... mattyroo is seen by KB as a threat to the thread even though mattyroo has a great perspective to offer....
I always felt that KB had his own agenda, I felt that he didnt appreciate my postings and saw himself on another level... thats ok with me... so I didnot post there for along time until a few days ago when I made a post...
KB doesnot like being wrong, ever... hes a smart operator but he is not really any different to any of us... he makes mistakes, when he's disclosed he has at times gotten it terribly wrong... and at times gotten it terrifically right... his mistakes may deter him from full open disclosure...

KB is buying and selling NWE, now thats not generally a problem, but when your going raging bull on a stock and then selling then thats not right... and he has at times been selling when hes been going gang busters on NWE...
....
In this game nothing beats full open disclosure... not even a smart operator with all the good oil info...I dont trust KB, he's got number one to look after...
.. its really just a story of him as a trader and not NWE as a stock...
I sincerely say good luck to Yah KB...no doubt someone will pass the message along...
....
here, pass this message along also....
:cool:<SC

[tricha]

I've been scraping up the loose change yesterday and today Tricha, and topped up at 22 and 20.5.
Too cheap at these levels, and agree that recovery costs related to Puffin do not affect NWE.

Interesting post on SS stated that even at 10,000bopd the increased price of Tapis still results in NWE getting around 90% of the revenue that they originally expected from 20,000bopd.
The bonus of course is that, as long as the reserve size is unchanged, this revenue stream will continue for twice as long at 10,000bopd, so it's all good for NWE.

Good one Serpie, the big fat bonus will be production ramped up to 20,000 bopd.
Can not be far of Northwest announcing 1st cheque received , now I'm up to about 300,000 shares and with the bounce on overseas markets, could be a very rewarding exercise.

Its a few opportune times like this, when Mr Market totally loses the plot when we can all make hay, we should see some fire in the Aussie market come Monday.


Index data delayed 15 min.http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif DJIA12980.9181.84http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif NASDAQ2596.6034.45http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif NIKKEI14,888.770.00http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif RUSSELL755.0314.72http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif NYSE9582.98177.76http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif TSX13467.286.20http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif USD (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/usd.html','AU','top=50,left=200,width=420,height=4 20,scrollbars=yes');)75.07+0.02http://www.kitco.com/images/up.gif Crude Oil (javascript:NewWindow('/glossary/crude.html','AU','top=50,left=200,width=525,height =570,scrollbars=yes');)98.30+1.01

[tricha]

I have been informed that the NWE thread has gone (soldier marching on), and I have had to start a new one...
that thread was a masterpiece so no doubt those that want to do further research into what has already been posted can look at it here...

http://snitzforum.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=14520
....
The general salute is the best title for this thread, we have upgraded from a soldier even though the SP has be battered lately.... first puffin production is expected in a little over one month...
Norwest energy is one of the most undervalued oilers on the market, it is more than 100&#37; undervalued...
NWE is on the brink of a new era as it leaves spec status behind... so lets bring in this new era with a new thread, and celebrate in style... still holding 50% of portfolio on this one stock....

Flogged of hotcopper and yes this is what makes it undervalued Shrewd, 100% yes, maybe more.

according to the AED release today, the problems at Puffin are equipment related and not reservior related

"".......These three commissioning issues are production equipment related, not reservoir related. All of these issues are expected to be rectified within 3
months and the Company anticipates a target production rate building to approximately 20,000 barrels per day during this period......""

.................................................. ..................................................

P.S I would not say the same for AED as they are a different kettle of fish, they are wearing the full over run costs.
But I guess if they get the oil predicted, its a minor issue.

[Serpie]

I've spent the evening on NWE Tricha, and I'm convinced (again).
As far as oilers go, NWE looks low risk from here. Puffin underwrites the SP up to current values, even with production difficulties, although this also depends on SW being economical. (I dont care whether SW is profitable, as that's AED's problem, much like NE).

But I dont see us getting back over 30c until Cobra is drillled. Too much confidence has been lost in the last week. So it's probably the perfect time to accumulate.

[seaosh]

Well lets hope they hurry up and book a rig and date for drilling Cobra then. . .

[macduffy]

If SW is uneconomic/unprofitable I would have thought that AED won't develop it and NWE will miss out on that part of the ORR?

Disc: Holding NWE

[Serpie]

Gidday MacDuffy,

I make the distinction between economical and being profitable because I think if it's economical it will proceed, and NWE will get their royalty, regardless of whether AED make any money out of it or not.
As we're seeing with NE there are many factors that affect the profitibility of the project once it gets going, but as long as it gets going that all that matters for NWE.

Hopefully everyones had a chance to digest this key difference between AED and NWE over the weekend, and we'll see the buyers rule today.

[macduffy]

Hmmm.... Not quite sure I can see how it could be economic if it is unprofitable to AED. I guess if AED see it as being "marginally" profitable they might be encouraged to proceed. So it may depend on how oil prices move as time goes on.

[Crypto Crude]

I read somewhere just cant remember where that development costs for SW are expected to be $200m US.... Independant expert Gaffney, Cline and associates estimated recoverable oil to be 40.3 million barrels for the SW field...
This project would still be profiatble if reserves were slashed in half to 20m recoverable... other prospects such as Woodlea may contain oil..
Who was this character that was slapping words like uneconomic and unprofitable on SW :rolleyes:... It surely wouldnot be developed if that were the case and AED have given no indication of such a thing and nor am I...
:cool:
.^sc

[Serpie]

I was simply making the point that the profit margin on SW (or NE) is irrelevant to NWE. It doesn't affect NWE's return from the project.
May have made my point in a clumsy way - my apologies.

SC- have you been banned from SS too? Tee hee hee.

[Crypto Crude]

sir pee,
I havenot been banned... wouldnot bother me if I had...
They pulled my post this morning and slapped a speeding ticket on the thread... Did you manage to read my post b4 it got pulled?
:cool:
.^sc

[Serpie]

I did mate.

Things were getting a bit hostile over there, and getting off topic too. I was just as guilty as anyone. We'd better watch ourselves otherwise we'll get done here too!

At least everyone agrees that NWE is sound, and nice to see it recovering some of the losses today. Did you jump back in last week?

[Crypto Crude]

sir pee,
I didnot re-enter...
Im waiting...
:cool:
.^sc

[bermuda]

sir pee,
I didnot re-enter...
Im waiting...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewdy,
You missed the boat. Get some now if you want in

That is the way I read it.

I have often thought about putting my entire portfolio on this one but I sold 130k for a small loss to concentrate on BOW and VPE.

Good luck.Has everything going for it.

[Crypto Crude]

sir pee...
Oh, I did get banned.... hehehe....
it was well worth it....
....
bermuda,
Im waiting on ann from MEO and then I will make a judgement
on what I shall do...
:cool:
.^sc

[axion]

wow why did you get banned? :|

[Serpie]

Axion,
I'll PM you, otherwise we'll start getting off topic on this thread.
Cheers
Serpie

[mattyroo]

I also managed to get myself banned from the SS site for 7 days too..... Seems my own and KB's indignation got the better of the both of us..... Probably for the best for now. Pity, I didn't see your post SC, it must've been a doozy!

Now, back on topic.

As I mentioned over there, I am in Singapore this week and am going to be meeting up with a few "people". In that regard I hope to get a good insight as to current problems on board the Puffin FPSO and progress with the MODEC MV1 conversion for AED's second FPSO.

I climbed back into NWE in a small way last week, seeing the ~10% gain already, maybe I should've got a few more.... At that point in time I thought this might stagnate around the low 20's for a week or more, as there seems to be some real market pessimism towards AED, which inherently affects NWE. Will see what the next week brings.

I do tend to agree with you Serpie, in that we are not likely to see >30c until Cobra is drilled. There has been a lot of speculation on when that might be, my thoughts are that it probably will not be until the Northern Spring, I guess we will all just have to wait for that all important announcement.

[tricha]

As I mentioned over there, I am in Singapore this week and am going to be meeting up with a few "people". In that regard I hope to get a good insight as to current problems on board the Puffin FPSO and progress with the MODEC MV1 conversion for AED's second FPSO.

I climbed back into NWE in a small way last week, seeing the ~10% gain already, maybe I should've got a few more.... At that point in time I thought this might stagnate around the low 20's for a week or more, as there seems to be some real market pessimism towards AED, which inherently affects NWE. Will see what the next week brings.

I do tend to agree with you Serpie, in that we are not likely to see >30c until Cobra is drilled. There has been a lot of speculation on when that might be, my thoughts are that it probably will not be until the Northern Spring, I guess we will all just have to wait for that all important announcement.

Yes back to what it is all about please, great trade, exited 100,000 today to cover the other loss making ones.
The way this market is running anything seems possible. maybe a black swan coming in from the left field.
So caution is worth remembering, even though this appears a no brainer.
I'm sitting on another 200,000

Happy hunting ;)

P.S maybe someone should start a new thread called" Banned" oh and remember Mattyroo it does not matter to NWE how much this oil costs to extract :rolleyes: It is AED's problem and I do not hold them.
The only thing that concerns NWE is AED extracts.;)

[Serpie]

I've just been reading past NWE reports, and they seem to have been quite pleased to get out of Puffin way back in 2004, as they doubted that it would be a winner. Who knew!

Also interesting to note that Cobra is a horizontal drill. We BUR holders LOVE lateral drills! Northern spring you reckon Matty? Sooner the better, but you may be right. It scheduled for before then, but these things always seem to go over.

Good trading Tricha.

[mattyroo]

oh and remember Mattyroo it does not matter to NWE how much this oil costs to extract :rolleyes: It is AED's problem and I do not hold them.
The only thing that concerns NWE is AED extracts.;)

I completely understand this tricha.

What concerns me with this field is the geology. I have a fairly good understanding of previous companies looking at this field, yet they all shied away from it, due to the geology.

I had a lot to do with the Chinguetti field, and this gives me a sense of deja vu in a small way.

If AED are having extraction problems, which it appears they may well be, then no amount of wells will speed up recovery of OIL. What more wells will do is produce more liquids, but the oil / water ratio will stay the same, hence once they are receiving maximum amount of liquids the FPSO can process per day, that will be it. Also, with more wells, they produce more sand typically, shortening life cycle of process equipment, which is AED's problem.

In essence what I am trying to say is that, whilst NWE's ORR still exists and will still be provided to them, their monthly cheques will quite possibly be a bit smaller.

Thankfully they are not a one hit wonder, and hopefully we will hear very soon of developments with their other prospects.

Disc: AED, nil, NWE, a few.

[mattyroo]

Go out for a haircut and come back and the bloody share price has had a haircut as well!!!

Today's ann certainly implies some delay to the developing of the SW field.

We need that Cobra drill to happen ASAP so as the apron strings to AED can be severed, all we have to worry about then is that they pay the ORR when due, not follow their SP into the chasm.

Wouldn't want to be one of those that bought AED @ 11 bucks!

[Serpie]

You said you had concerns about Puffin geology Matty. Seems spot on with Puffin 10 being abandoned.
Would much rather be holding NWE than SED at the moment, but NWE will still suffer.

As you say, we need to stop being a one trick pony, and get Cobra underway.

[Kropotkin]

Yikes!
i left a buy order in @ 21 when i left work and now I have a few more LOL
averaged down nicely to 23 but hope it doesnt slide too much more :o

[seaosh]

Well now it's back to my buy price. . .

I feel pretty stupid for watching this one rise, then fall, and never taking any profits (except for a small parcel I traded when it dipped back in mid-August).

An educational experience. . .

Should have got out when it first dipped below 30 cents on the negative puffin news.

Had I done that though I would probably have bought in again long before now.

Oh well. . .

If they hurry up and fix a date for drilling Cobra hopefully we will see a major turn around.

[axion]

Wow. Never thought I'd see it in the teens.

This has taught me an important lesson (this is my first year of buying shares) and that is that I should employ some type of trailing stop to make sure I lock in profits.

[limegreen]

NWE has been showing signs of technical weakness since August. Firstly, there has been selling pressure, as shown by the falling OBV. It has breached a confirmed trendline (not shown), plus a 70 day MA, which would have kept you in. Of course, if you'd sold at that point, you would have seen it rebound, and regretted selling. But when it failed to better 35c resistance and drop again, the signs were all bad

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/nwe30nov07.gif

It is of course, worth noting that despite suggestions otherwise, at the moment NWE price = AED price. Sure there might be other projects coming on stream. Or something. But at the moment that doesn't mean squat. That is, if AED continues to tank, then NWE holders are going to get hosed as well.

Disc: Former AED :)

[Viking]

Wow. Never thought I'd see it in the teens.

This has taught me an important lesson (this is my first year of buying shares) and that is that I should employ some type of trailing stop to make sure I lock in profits.

A bit like playing "Who wants to be a millionaire?" when you have a hunch but don't exactly know the answer for sure. :D

[soulman]

Plenty more lessons for you guys Seaosh and Axion. We all have done that plenty of time. The lessons will held you in good stead because we can only learn from mistakes. Winning trades like buying Fortescue at $11 this time last year won't teach you any lessons except for telling yourself "I'm the greatest".

However, these type of mistakes cannot be rectified completely. In hindsight, you said you shoulda sold below 30's. Time will come when you sold and the share price keeps going up and up. In hindsight, you shoulda but in reality, we don't really know for sure. Viking sums it all up there.

[seaosh]

Well I bought more today.

Balls of steel and all that. . .

[MPC]

WELL, I wasn't expecting all the continued bad news from AED but after talking to a mate who is actually drilling the Puffin area, this is not the end. Very difficult geology supposedly.
Hindsite is easy, I was expecting a recovery from an oversold position but we will be down for a while I think.
I traded quick 10 percenters about 5 times in the low 30's and bought at 17 originally so still happy to hold some for the longer term and eventual recovery when Puffin becomes just a portion of NWE's success.
My prediction is that it will hover here for a few months until new announcements arrive. THerefore something else will happen. Interesting to watch NWE and AED at the moment anyway.
Cheers,
MPC

[tricha]

[quote=MPC;175276]WELL, I wasn't expecting all the continued bad news from AED but after talking to a mate who is actually drilling the Puffin area, this is not the end. Very difficult geology supposedly.
Hindsite is easy, I was expecting a recovery from an oversold position but we will be down for a while I think.
I traded quick 10 percenters about 5 times in the low 30's and bought at 17 originally so still happy to hold some for the longer term and eventual recovery when Puffin becomes just a portion of NWE's success.
My prediction is that it will hover here for a few months until new announcements arrive. THerefore something else will happen. Interesting to watch NWE and AED at the moment anyway.
Cheers,
MPC[/quote

Very Interesting MPC, Puffin is only a small part of the NWE picture


NORWEST ENERGY NL 288 Stirling Street Perth Western Australia 6000 PO Box 8260 Perth Business Centre Western Australia 6849
Tel: +61 8 9227 3240 Fax: +61 9227 3211 Email: info@norwestenergy.com.au Web: www.norwestenergy.com.au ABN: 65 078 301 505

18 December 2007
Company Announcements Office
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
Sydney NSW 2000

Rig Confirmation & Farm-out to Challenger Minerals on UK North Sea
Blocks 48/1b & 48/2c

NWE Southern Cross (UK) Pty. Ltd (NWE), a wholly owned subsidiary of
Norwest Energy NL announces that the ENSCO 80 drilling rig has been
contracted for the appraisal drilling of the Cobra discovery on UK North Sea
block 48/2c.
The appraisal well will be drilled in the first quarter of 2008. It will be operated
by Norwest’s partner in the block, Encore. The Cobra well will appraise the
48/2-1 gas discovery drilled by Amoco in 1984, which tested at a flow rate of
2.7 million cubic feet per day from the Rotliegend sandstone. The well will be
managed by Applied Drilling Technology International (ADTI) which has over
20 years' experience in providing turnkey drilling.
Norwest also announces that it has entered into a farm-out agreement with
Challenger Minerals (North Sea) Limited ('Challenger Minerals') under which
Challenger Minerals receives the right to acquire from NWE a 2.5 per cent
interest in southern North Sea Blocks 48/1b and 48/2c containing the Cobra
discovery. Under the terms of this farm-out agreement and together with the
previously announced farm-out agreement with Tata Petrodyne and Bharat
Petroleum, NWE will pay for 6.5% of the appraisal well cost up to an overall
well cost cap, and 22.5% of costs over the cap. The exposure to Norwest for
the total well cost is estimated to be US$3 million. Norwest will retain a 22.5%
interest in the licence.
Norwest’s CEO, Mr Joe Salomon today said that the company is very pleased
to have reached this position.
“The Cobra project is an appraisal opportunity of an existing discovery where
the exploration risk has already been removed. The existing discovery well
encountered a gas column of at least 60 metres, possibly more, within the
main productive sandstones of the area. The Cobra well will drill close to the
crest of the south-easternmost culmination of a composite structure, and
some 100 metres updip from the discovery well. We expect the base case,
i.e. gas in the southeastern Cobra culmination to be of an economic size, and
there is significant upside potential in the case that the greater structure also
is gas filled.

NORWEST ENERGY NL 288 Stirling Street Perth Western Australia 6000 PO Box 8260 Perth Business Centre Western Australia 6849
Tel: +61 8 9227 3240 Fax: +61 9227 3211 Email: info@norwestenergy.com.au Web: www.norwestenergy.com.au ABN: 65 078 301 505

We are expecting that today’s drilling techniques will produce a higher flow
rate than that seen in the old well. Given success in this appraisal well, the
field development would be through horizontal drilling. The block is
surrounded by producing fields and existing available infrastructure which
offers the opportunity for an early, low cost development.
Norwest has developed a material position in an exciting, relatively low risk
appraisal project, and with the rig confirmation, we are now close to seeing
results.”

For further information on Norwest contact
Mr. Joe Salomon
Telephone: +61 8 9227 3240
Email: info@norwestenergy.com.au

The summary report on the oil and gas projects is based on information compiled by Mr J A
Salomon, BAppSc (Geology), Chief Executive Officer of Norwest Energy NL. Mr Salomon
holds a relevant degree in geology and has been practising petroleum geology for 25 years.
Mr Salomon is the full-time Chief Executive Officer of Norwest Energy NL and has consented
in writing to the inclusion of the information stated in the form and context in which it appears.

[bermuda]

For what its worth I dont hold these but this is a stock that could go to 30 cents by end January.

[macduffy]

I do hold them and look forward to January!

[clips]

ditto that macduff..........

[seaosh]

Yep. . . I got into these early last year and saw them hit 35 cents a couple of times and then drop right back, all without taking any profits - duh!

Hung onto them though, even picked up more when they were sub 20c, and now they are looking good again.

[Serpie]

Joe Salomon has just resigned as a director.

Good. We were going nowhere under his guidance. Time for some new blood and new enthusiasm at the helm.

[axion]

Wow, this is good news? I remember him being lauded as the man with the plan.

[Serpie]

NWE are deal brokers, and need deal makers. JS had bought nothing to the table for too long. Time for a change.
Of course it depends on who they get to replace him as to whether this turns out to be good news or not. If Bill Bloking wants the extra workload then he's the obvious choice.

[tricha]

NWE are deal brokers, and need deal makers. JS had bought nothing to the table for too long. Time for a change.
Of course it depends on who they get to replace him as to whether this turns out to be good news or not. If Bill Bloking wants the extra workload then he's the obvious choice.

Serpie got to be a go, cash to burn. Watch for a re-rating on Monday when brokers back from holiday.

The money is flowing, got to be the cheapest play on the market,
Status - Currently hold 350,000 shares.

.NoPrint {display: none;}
Page 1 of 1 1 View PDF (http://research.iress.com.au/ids/current/20080102/00800053.pdf?uid=46E5D18A9B9D6011ABD60C6684AD83DCF 63B0000DB40A70D3143E340F1AB0000F4120000&ppv=)

http://research.iress.com.au/ids/idsimage.asp?uid=46E5D18A9B9D6011ABD60C6684AD83DCF 63B0000DB40A70D3143E340F1AB0000F4120000&i=x&dt=20080102&id=00800053

[Serpie]

Seems that we've waited forever for this first payment. I believe that the payments are quarterly, so we may not see another one until the end of March.
Hopefully good news before then regarding a firm drill date for Cobra, a restructured board, and perhaps a succesful bid in the current Indian rounds.
Next good news (if it arrives) will be regarding increased production from Puffin.

[tricha]

I hope this is correct, 1st payment for one Shipload, if AED get their production up, it will be a huge bonus, no one seems to note that oil is at over $90 a barrell US and even at a lower rate, the money is still following even if the oil isn't yet.
People tend to forget also that technecially Northwest should not aligned to AED's share price.
Northwest get the money regardless of the costs to produce.

It will come to note sooner than later.

From Nucular of Hotcopper.

"Royalty was for just first shipment...

1.25% of 328,000 barrels (4100 barrels x $107AUD = $440,000 approx)

We've had two shipments definitely, 3 quite possibly.

$1.3million and counting.....hopefully some confirmation of increased flows to come.... If next cheque doesn't arrive until 1 April, should be around $2.5 million assuming no changes to current production and stable AUD/Tapis. Hopefully by then the royalty will merely fund the Cobra discovery party.

Happily frustrated."

[tricha]

Interesting day tomorrow for AED and NWE.

Looks like Puffin will get to 20,000 barrels a day but at a great cost.

Looks like NorthWests royality payments should double in the near future.

But how the market interprets is another .....................

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/dab9631403ba7d2c19c357bc356a27fa/ASX-AED-290968.pdf

[georgeofthejungle]

Does anybody know why the board members are resigning? News just through that the CEO Joe Salomon has now resigned. This is the third resignation in the last couple of months!

Do people see this as a positive or negative event for the long term future of the company?

[shasta]

Does anybody know why the board members are resigning? News just through that the CEO Joe Salomon has now resigned. This is the third resignation in the last couple of months!

Do people see this as a positive or negative event for the long term future of the company?

No news Joe going is a blessing IMO, but NWE @ 19c is a joke...

Am lurking seeing where it ends, anyone want to sell them to me @ 16c? :D

[Oiler]

No news Joe going is a blessing IMO, but NWE @ 19c is a joke...

Am lurking seeing where it ends, anyone want to sell them to me @ 16c? :D

Shasta you have to be joking....LOL :D I will have an order for XXXX so quick if they go that low.

I am loving this market... time to buy up on all those value but beaten down stocks.

[Serpie]

Does anybody know why the board members are resigning?

It appears as though the writing has been on the wall since Bill Bloking was brought on board George. There's been some discontent over Svalbe's role for some time, so no great loss there, and Joe Saloman has hardly set the world on fire. I'd say that JS has been on leave since his resignation as a director on 19/12/07, and today, being his first day back, was the obvious time to announce his departure.
BB has the experience and the contacts. Perhaps he'll bring some of his own people on board?

Good fun Oiler!

[tricha]

Does anybody know why the board members are resigning? News just through that the CEO Joe Salomon has now resigned. This is the third resignation in the last couple of months!

Do people see this as a positive or negative event for the long term future of the company?

http://www.norwestenergy.com.au/files/imagemanagermodule/@random435645dbad31a/bill_bloking.jpg














Bill Bloking
(Chairman)

Bill is a leading energy expert with more than 32 years of experience in the energy sector with Exxon Corporation and the BHP Billiton Group, and has held senior executive positions in Australia, Asia, South America, and the USA.

Until recently, Bill was President of Australia/Asia Gas at BHP Billiton Petroleum, where he had overall strategic, commercial and corporate accountability for BHP Billiton's international LNG business and its domestic gas business in Australia. From 1999 to 2004, Bill was CEO of BHP Billiton Petroleum (North West Shelf), where he had full responsibility for BHPB's interest in the North West Shelf Project, the Browse LNG Project, and the Pilbara LNG Project.

Bill has a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering (Summa cum Laude) from the University of South Carolina in the USA. He is currently National Vice Chairman of the Australia-China Business Council, Governor of the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia, Adjunct Professor at Murdoch University, Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors, Director of the Lions Eye Institute and the West Australian Symphony Orchestra, and a member of the UWA Confucius Centre Advisory Board.




I guess the new boss is a new broom. I would say from his profile, he makes things happen.

[Huang Chung]

NWE and AED certainly moved in different directions today...NWE up 2.7% to 19c and AED down 8.6% to $3.52.

[tricha]

NWE and AED certainly moved in different directions today...NWE up 2.7% to 19c and AED down 8.6% to $3.52.

And so it should Huang, NWE just sit back and take 1.25% of all oil produced at no cost, while AED pay millions to fix all the production problems.

On top of that North Sea drilling soon and the relatively new chairman Bill Bloking seems to have the pedigree to make things happen.

( not that I'm against AED, if and they should get Puffin up to 20,000 barrells a day, thats great coin and a quick 100% profit on AED )

[Crypto Crude]

buyers 17.5cents sellers 18cents....
Ive been very patient by holding off this stock which is a screaming buy at 20cents in a safe market...
I rate this stock and the only thing that has changed over the last 6 months is the price... The new price reflects the new information...
the market has topped it all off... Im also Looking for entry at 16cents...:D
:cool:
.^sc

[Steve]

I have started following NWE (thanks SC!), and are trying to decide on an entry point.

There should be a good bounce once the markets stabilise...

[Sideshow Bob]

If you guys were keen at 16c, then you must be super keen at 14c..........

[shasta]

Shasta you have to be joking....LOL :D I will have an order for XXXX so quick if they go that low.

I am loving this market... time to buy up on all those value but beaten down stocks.

I wasn't joking :(

[remy]

anyone here predicting them to go any lower, looks like at 13.5 it's a good buying oportunity but im not sure if i should wait any longer to see if they are going to drop further, guess will have to see what the markets doing before it closes tomorrow

[Steve]

I'm thinking about making an initial purchase if tomorrow shows another dip...

[remy]

shares went back up today, however have made an inital purchase, hopefully they will keep going up :)

[Crypto Crude]

Very worrying signs with AED falling pretty much double digit losses on many days for as long as I can remember....
some reports are starting to surface since im now back in town, and AED is nearing on a credit crisis of its own it would seem... it is a screaming takeover stock now and I have eluded to a deal at least with a farm in and multi hundred million dollar budget, but why not a takeover instead with current low Market cap? Coogee must be watching closely.....
This stock will be volatile and a good trading stock I reckon...
I may have a dabble....
.....
For NWE it would be great news if AED gets taken over, or stripped of its assets at the end so that someone else can fast track both Puffin developments and get a move along... an oil major is required
NWE owns 1.25% of everything that gets produced in revenues... The value of this royalty is worth a great amount of cash on paper for the company regardless of what happens to AED...
The market will not see it like this, I believe the sustainability of this project is not in question with a large cash injection...Throwing in more development wells is not necessarily the best answer, but rest assured this can be fixed..... NWE has held up quite well over the last few days...
NWE have cash, and great drilling coming up, an asset of the royalty over the puffin fields worth the current market cap of the stock or more (I reckon) regardless of short term uncertainty over AEDs future and debt commitments... AED also suffers from a lack of market updates, and is being punished accordingly...
:cool:
.^sc

[Mick100]

Looks like it's capitulation day for AED today shrewd
Over 5m sares traded by 4 oclock with still 2 hours trading to go
should do 6-7 m turnover today which will be 50% higher than highest volume from past 6 months
Usually, significant increase in volume indicates the turning point (bottom)

If I was a young cashed-up student i would grab some right now;)
.

[bermuda]

Looks like it's capitulation day for AED today shrewd
Over 5m sares traded by 4 oclock with still 2 hours trading to go
should do 6-7 m turnover today which will be 50% higher than highest volume from past 6 months
Usually, significant increase in volume indicates the turning point (bottom)

If I was a young cashed-up student i would grab some right now;)
.

Exactly Mick, after today's announcement by AED, NWE becomes a screaming buy.

[shasta]

Exactly Mick, after today's announcement by AED, NWE becomes a screaming buy.

After touching 11.5c you might wanna scream louder, no ones listening...:eek:

The shrewd one must surely be watching this closely? :cool:

[remy]

whats the main reason for it dipping down to 11.5? it was around the 14-16 mark for a while then all of a sudden takes a mini dive

[shasta]

whats the main reason for it dipping down to 11.5? it was around the 14-16 mark for a while then all of a sudden takes a mini dive

Goodness knows, general market sentiment?

AED sentiment? (which would be a tad unfair IMO)

I bought into NWE a long while back & sold out @ 30c.

NWE has only briefly traded above that level since, yet they are receiving the royalties now...:confused:

The famous/infamous King Baz off SS has often mentioned NWE with a 50c valuation, so for those looking for a hefty "margin of safety" now have it.

NWE sub 20c is ridiculously cheap & they have revenue + exploration permits, so surely we have seen the bottom at 11.5c?

[remy]

as a shareholder i sure hope so :)

[Crypto Crude]

this is a cut from a poster named annaliese...

Cobra drill...
Heres a bit of background from Norwest:

This block contains a significant gas discovery made in 1984 by Amoco where well 48/2-1 encountered at least a 60 metre gas column and flowed gas at up to 2.7 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd). 3D seismic covering the block has been reprocessed to PSDM by Norwest in Perth, and interpreted, and shows that the well is located on the flanks of the structure with large updip volumes. The prospect is called Cobra (previously called Bounder).

The license is adjacent to very large producing gas fields, which have platform and infrastructure facilities in place. Bounder is similar to these existing fields, and is estimated to have potential gas in place volumes of as much as 400 BCF. The reservoirs in this area are tight and fractured, and horizontal wells have flow capacity of 30 to 50 mmcfd. The Hoton Field immediately to the south was developed by BP in 2001 using a horizontal well, and tested at 65 mmcfd. The Babbage Field immediately to the north was flow tested from a vertical well at 10.7 mmcfd in September 2006. The Hoton development is aimed at recovering the crestal gas volumes and a development at Bounder is likely to take the same approach. Gas on the flanks of the structure is more difficult to recover. An independent analysis by RPS Energy (international consultants) quotes mean risked volumes in two structures of 94.3 billion cubic feet (bcf). Minimum economic field size in the area is around 30 BCF.
....
...
..
.
Horizontal section is the key here guys...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

shasta,
I will wait and see what AED does tomorrow before I make a move....
:cool:
.^sc

[macduffy]

AED having a great run - up 20% ! - but it hasn't rubbed off onto NWE - yet. :confused:

[macduffy]

AED having a great run - up 20&#37; ! - but it hasn't rubbed off onto NWE - yet. :confused:


Make that : AED +26.8%

NWE up a cent + 8%.

:)

[tricha]

AED Oil Limited

ACN 110 393 292
PO Box 18199
COLLINS STREET EAST VIC 8003
AUSTRALIA

ASX Announcement

22 February 2008
Well Performance and FPSO Update

Well Performance Review

The Company is pleased to provide an update on the well performance review
presently being undertaken.
As you will recall from the December quarterly report AED has appointed a world
leading and independent technical advisor to provide three reports to the Company on
the following issues:

• Phase 1 - identification and analysis of existing production well issues. (A
summary of which was released to the Market on 31 January2008)

• Phase 2 - advise on remediation procedures for existing wells, Puffin 7 and
Puffin 8 and potential for improvement in oil production rates

• Phase 3 - detailed advice on optimal implementation of procedures for future
wells including Puffin 11 to ensure avoidance of future production as seen in
Puffin-7.
The Phase 3 report has now been received and concludes the following;

• “Improved drilling and completion design are feasible and readily achievable to
ensure better long term productivity for future Puffin North East wells. These
improved drilling, completion and cleanup practices should ensure avoidance of
the localized well production problems encountered by Puffin-7”.
Further, the independent technical advisor’s draft Phase 2 report has now been
received and confirms that there is a high likelihood of effective remediation of the
Puffin 7 well, with the prospect of an initial increase in oil production by a factor of 2
- 3 times existing production levels. The Company believes a remediation program
could be implemented on a cost effective basis within an 8 week timeframe subject
to procurement schedules.
To recap on the previously announced Phase 1 report findings;

• Production impairment at Puffin-7 is due to drilling and completion factors. (It is
noteworthy that the consultants modeling required no change in reservoir volumes
to simulate the reported production rates, i.e. the production issues are localised
to the current wells rather than reservoir-related).

Production

We have been advised by the FPSO - Front Puffin that local weather conditions have
improved following the weakening of TC Nicholas during the week. It is likely that
reconnection to the Puffin production well will occur over the weekend. Work has

Page 2 of 2

been progressing on repairs to the compressor on board the FPSO over the past week.
The compressor should be back in full operation mid next week. In the meantime
crude oil production will commence once the FPSO is reconnected.

Trevor Slater
Company Secretary
General Manager, Marketing

Contacts

Trevor Slater – Company Secretary/General Manager, Marketing (03) 9656 7800

[seaosh]

Good news for a change. . .

So hopefully next week we get Cobra spud? Surely got to be sometime soon.

[tricha]

shasta,
I will wait and see what AED does tomorrow before I make a move....
:cool:
.^sc

Did u make your move Shrewd, I was lucky enough to pick up another 100 K at 14.5 cents when I got home from work today.

As Seaosh stated - Cobra spud coming soon and with AED seemly able to get back on track, could be a winner ;)

[seaosh]

Looks like the down trend has broken on NWE and we are (fingers crossed) about to start a nice extended uptrend.

It closed at 17.5 cents today on good volume. With a bunch of news expected this is hopefully just the start of a nice run. AED seem to have restarted production at Puffin a couple of days ago, and provided that continues royalties should begin trickling in again. AED currently in a trading halt, possibly going to announce a deal to seriously ramp up Puffin production, and that could see the royalties become a solid flow. Expecting Cobra to spud within a couple of weeks. Manuel being drilled right now and the possibility of a nice announcement in a few weeks time. After completion of Manuel we'll be waiting for completion of Cobra. . .

Share price is already stirring and it is quite a full schedule from here. Given the stream of news to come this one has to be heading back into the upper 20s at least.

[tricha]

Looks like the down trend has broken on NWE and we are (fingers crossed) about to start a nice extended uptrend.

It closed at 17.5 cents today on good volume. With a bunch of news expected this is hopefully just the start of a nice run. AED seem to have restarted production at Puffin a couple of days ago, and provided that continues royalties should begin trickling in again. AED currently in a trading halt, possibly going to announce a deal to seriously ramp up Puffin production, and that could see the royalties become a solid flow. Expecting Cobra to spud within a couple of weeks. Manuel being drilled right now and the possibility of a nice announcement in a few weeks time. After completion of Manuel we'll be waiting for completion of Cobra. . .

Share price is already stirring and it is quite a full schedule from here. Given the stream of news to come this one has to be heading back into the upper 20s at least.

I can not understand why it had this big run up today, but I will take it with both hands.
At a guess inside trading on some good news coming out of why, AED is on hold.;)

[seaosh]

I dunno Tricha. There may be no reason at all for the run up besides the information that is already out there. NWE is long overdue for some recognition of the potential offered by the coming weeks and months.

If you think about it the volume on Friday was not that special. If it was insider trading then the insiders involved don't have particularly deep pockets. I reckon it was just a few investors impatiently building positions ahead of AED coming out of its trading halt.

[tricha]

I dunno either Seaosh, but to get a 12.9% gain on a down market day with no known news ?
If they wanted another 1 million shares they would have had to pay dearly as very few sellers, probably pushed the price to 21 cents.

Anyway it's all good which ever way u look at it, pinched this off sharescene.

.................................................. .................................................. .

Yes, it does look very exciting. Lets speculate for a moment. The three ST prospects that could imflame the NWE SP are:

A. Manuel well - TD during March
B. AED Puffin - Assume a quality JV partner with serious $$$$ to take over operatorship
C. Cobra drilling - result mid - late April

Now what would be SP come end April under this scenario asumming ASX doesn't seriously tank:

A only - $0.40 ?
B only - $0.25 ?
C only - $0.45 ?

A + B - $0.50 ?
B + C - $0.60 ?
A + B + C - $0.80 ?

Not much science went into these hypotheticals.

[Serpie]

Awesome news for NWE with AED being rescued.
Onwards and upwards for Puffin from here!

[tricha]

Awesome news for NWE with AED being rescued.
Onwards and upwards for Puffin from here!

Great result for us NWE shareholders, royalities will keep flowing and will increase when they sort al the wells out and at $100 + a barrel.

Lets get a blast from the past, 8.08.2007 and get NWE back on track ;)

haha, does NWE have much going for it apart from that?... well that 70m is massive and yes it does have diversification through other assets...
you said 70million cash.... that is much larger than the market value of NWE... NWE is currently valued at 52million dollars... I reckon NWE will recieve above 100million in royalty payments from AED over a 5-6 year period...and that is without the upside, and what I currently believe will be extracted from the fields... markets are skeptical of 100m barrels recoverable from AED...

NWE have the 3 drill program later this year (aed AC/P22 drills) which NWE will have the 1.25% royalty over... so no doubt that favourable results will impact on NWE... the permit AC/P22 has some monster targets and upside through further discovery cannot be ruled out...

NWE have multiple permits in the North Sea, the Cobra Permit has already had a previous discovery which will get re-drilled...bharat farmed in with another Indian company and will contribute most of the costs... the other permits in the North Sea are surrounded by discoverys, infrastructure is in place, and NWE are in early days of exploration with scesmic detailing/ and interpretation in progress... Cobra is a go ahead as we stand...

NWE have a massive permit in that of AC/P32 where a drill next year will target two structures with 100-200m barrel potential, (first half drill).... JV with Coogee, who is a big fish...

currently has 8million cash, Indian conections(office and Bharat deals/relationships)...great managment... Bill bloking is a true professional... NWE also have a drill with ARQ in the first half of next year...

But yes, Puffin is NWE's biggest asset, it will produce incoming cashflow twice the current value of the company, with big upside... and NWE will have extensive work on their projects in the first half of next year through exploration drilling... exploration targets will be drilled in the AC/P22 program, AED will extensively explore AC/P22 and it is only time before AED discover more oil, we also have NE3 reserves which will hopefully be tied into NE FPSO at some stage...
To think that NWE willnot discover at all, or will that what currently the company offers is it, willnot be the case...serpie mentions the left field play.... on the right HS of the field is action aswell...
NWE is currently one of the cheapest oilers on the market...
expect a big re-rating as first puffin production comes online, NWE will be making so much cash that even they willnot know how to spend it... target drilling is a growth strategy which obviously poses a different set of risks... Cashflow streaming in will help offset some of these risks, as Cash balance will be increasing all the time....
as I have said, I have 50% of my 3 holdings on this one...
My old man is in this one... AED production this year in on/offshore Australia is the biggest program about to start production for years to come, this is where the action is... and little NWE will be there to collect chqs...

So to say that this is the end of the road for NWE in terms of further discoverys takes a person with a closed mind, we have all the steps being put into place for the growth, to get those big annoucements that the market just cannot factor in now will take some major drilling decisions on which structures to drill (3rd), and abit of luck... to get the big returns I am in the view that we donot need any further discoverys... to get to $1 plus we do...

[Crypto Crude]

tricha,
yes a classic post...
BUT The information then is changed to the information that is now...

Becareful with these few Norwest exploration drills because That perfect hedge with Puffin is now not there.... Going off information at that time and in the past NWE was a screamer, and as we all know that info has changed... The amazing thing about it is that Puffin could still add 40-50c to NWE not including upside...

Ive had my dash with Little norwest and im happy to sit on the fence as per my investment style... Im not a major fan of these wildcats unless theres a major hedge against other activities...eg NZO....
my investment style is clear and its these spec oilers nearing production in development stage is where its at for me...
Im still a big fan of NWE because I believe that production stage issues can solved and Gaffney Clive and Associates report is not Biased and impartial...
....
My pick is coogee for an AED farmin partner...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

when I said that puffin could add 40c to NWE I meant that it is possible...
Not a mostly likely outcome, but no doubt it could happen...
...
NWE seems fairly priced as at right now....
a few cents worth of cash....
5-10 cents worth of exploration drilling coming interms of carried costs...
and an up and coming announcement worth potentially more than or as much as 10c in real terms...
If the market believes that AED's new partner can turn this around then NWE will easily breach those prices that we touched at 35c...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

tricha,
yes a classic post...
BUT The information then is changed to the information that is now...

Becareful with these few Norwest exploration drills because That perfect hedge with Puffin is now not there.... Going off information at that time and in the past NWE was a screamer, and as we all know that info has changed... The amazing thing about it is that Puffin could still add 40-50c to NWE not including upside...

Ive had my dash with Little norwest and im happy to sit on the fence as per my investment style... Im not a major fan of these wildcats unless theres a major hedge against other activities...eg NZO....
my investment style is clear and its these spec oilers nearing production in development stage is where its at for me...
Im still a big fan of NWE because I believe that production stage issues can solved and Gaffney Clive and Associates report is not Biased and impartial...
....
My pick is coogee for an AED farmin partner...
:cool:
.^sc

1 - Cobra is not a wildcat, gas is there and they are doing an appraisal, hooking up to existing infrastucture isn't that hard.
Gas prices make it far more viable than before.

2 - who ever buys into Puffin should have the money and expertise to finish the job, another 100 million - 500 million spent on getting the oil, has no effect on NWE's bottom line, the oil is there and they just, as u know, put their hand out.

But one concern I have is the directors appear to hold not much in the way of shares and the chairman seems to be absent.
Although it does not really matter with Cobra or Puffin as they are not running the show.

Cheers



OVERSEAS PROJECTS

Cobra Gas Discovery Appraisal: UK North Sea Blocks 48/1b and
48/2c (22.5%)

All pre-spud arrangements have been completed in preparation for drilling
an appraisal well over the Cobra gas discovery in Block 48/1b & 2c in the
Southern Gas Basin of the North Sea. The well is currently due to spud
around February 10th, However the final spud date is dependant upon the
availability of the contracted rig - the Ensco 80 which is currently drilling a
development well for Granby in the North Sea. The Operator EnCore
Petroleum has signed contracts with both ADTI and ENSCO to secure the
ENSCO 80 jack-up for the next drilling slot. ADTI will provide the
engineering and organizational control for drilling the well on a turnkey
basis.
The program agreed by the Joint Venture is to drill a vertical well at a
crestal location on the Cobra structure some 100 metres higher than the
1984 Amoco discovery well (which proved the presence of a gas column in
the structure), and to run flow test(s) on the well to test the production
potential of the reservoir. The scope of the Cobra appraisal well is to
further delineate the potential reserve size and reservoir productivity.
Norwest believes the use of modern drilling technologies will unlock the
significant commercial potential of the structure. Similar bypassed gas
accumulations to Cobra have recently been proven commercially including
the E.ON Ruhrgas Babbage discovery located just north of Cobra.
Assuming a commercial production test results from the Cobra appraisal
well, the consortium would return at a later date to drill a horizontal
production well or wells in order to develop the field.
Norwest has also completed a small farmout to Challenger Minerals, as a result of
which Norwest has reduced its interest in the Cobra license from 25% to 22.5%.

[Crypto Crude]

Tricha,
yes I was being loose with my words... Cobra is an appraisal well....
I like the look of Cobra, it just doesnot make sense why they will do it in two stages and come back at a later stage to do the horizontal section...
there would be minimal problems in development stage and it all comes down to flow rates...
The Norwest thread is in good hands with you running the show....
catch you up...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Huang Chung -"So the girl who was asked to the dance was...Sinopec!"

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsID=00820934

Royalities back on track, re-rating on Monday.

And if anyone cares to take the time and read " Twilight in the Desert" ( Borrowed from Bermuda )

Refer to page 296 and there is a corrolation between UK Oilfields and gas, very interesting.

[leonchai]

For some reason today wasn't as good as it should be for NWE, compared to AED...
I guess NWE has already staged a great recovery from a low of 12c, but I sort of expected at least a close above 20c today, downside risk from Puffin somewhat diminished now by a JV partner with very deep pockets.

Oh well, good opportunity to top up for some!

[remy]

anyone still holding here? seems to have gone frrm 19c down to the 14-15 mark and hasnt moved for a while.. any reason for this, if not perhaps a good time to top up on shares?

[axion]

Yeah it went down cause the manuel well was a dud. Even though when it was announced tobe drilled the SP didn't move.. but yeah. Seems like a fairly good buy atm given AED should be sorting their stuff out now and cobra is meant to do it's thing soon.

[macduffy]

Yes, I'm still holding on the strength of the Puffin ORR and the Cobra promise.
All these junior oilers are out of favour at present but at least NWE has more going for it than most.

;)

[mattyroo]

Me too. I sold a lot early on in the high 20's, but every now and then buy a few more for the shelf. Basically just looking at them as a reasonably secure medium term hold,.

[Serpie]

I'm still in, but if Cobra is a dud then it's a long way back. Fingers crossed.

[seaosh]

Encore has announced Cobra spud. . .

I am about to crack a big bottle of Cobra beer.

You know you are all insanely jealous.

[seaosh]

Light, gassy, amazing flow rate. . . I'm all smiles.

[Huang Chung]

NWE was one of the most discussed stocks on this forum....now hardly gets a mention.

Results for the much talked about Cobra well must only be days away.

Is anybody out there?


Disc...not holding.

[macduffy]

Yes, we're all still here.
Just waiting for the good news from Cobra and for the Puffin royalties to start flowing again!

;)

[Oiler]

Yes, we're all still here.
Just waiting for the good news from Cobra and for the Puffin royalties to start flowing again!

;)

Dont hold your breath waiting for the Puffin royalties, they maybe slim pickins :eek:

Cobra.......... yes lets hope, a different story :D Hopefully we will hear something next week.

Oiler

[remy]

yeh still holding, hopefully this is the ann we've all been waiting for :D

[tricha]

Dont hold your breath waiting for the Puffin royalties, they maybe slim pickins :eek:

Cobra.......... yes lets hope, a different story :D Hopefully we will hear something next week.

Oiler

In the bottom drawer Pufin royalities are there for the long term, while Cobra will either send them to 24 or back to 14 ;)

[Crypto Crude]

Tricha,
I decided a while back that I wasn't going to get back into NWE for Cobra...
Cobra looks good enough but no-one can really be sure until it comes through...id always thought about 50&#37;, ive been pretty damn conservative (discovery, flow rates, commercial, development, production)...KB reckoned about 75% off memory, my thinking is more to do with all the steps..... discovery is pretty much a sure thing, just like with LMP, MEO... Announcement could come at any time from here...

Ive heard good things about Wisteria (dual target) for July spud...(poss Oct)
So I will wait on Cobra results and get into NWE if it goes bad...
If it goes good then I may have a crack at BUY...
Im hoping like H*ll that Cobra is a raging success...
I picked up GGX instead of NWE which is going real well..
.....
This may answer a few posters queries-
The main reason why I have been cautious of getting back into NWE Is because its like picking over a dead carcus with AED...I had my time with AED, NWE... the companies completely turned, and it was time for me to find a new company because NWE and AED was going to take time to get back everything that was ripped away from the Top of production...
This was meant to be a dream, and sure thing for NWE and I felt slightly scammed because I believed that AED was the real deal...
They were so good before production... and were so bad after...
it was never about the going concern assumption...(small revenues)...
it was about the Holy Grail when I loaded up 80% of everything into NWE...
I decided to back off from little nortwest when it started to turn before production stage...-->flowrates came through lower and I got lucky when I bounced when Markets turned...there is every bit of evidence that Puffin NE was stuffed up by AED at the completion end of drilling... It was AED's fault which almost cost investors company survival...
...
Look at TDO, best management ive seen... Big announcement coming, expected early this week...If good, managment wont stuff this one up like AED have done with Puffin....
until about a year ago, I never thought management was such a big deal...
Management is the difference between failure and success...!
Management is most important... AED dont have a clue...
they are finished without sinopec... But Sinopec have the goods and we rely on Them to push this along...
im not crapping with you... Oiler could seriously do a better job as a wing man at AED......
BOW have great management...Ron Prefontaine...
TDO have Peter Willcox....
id love to see them going toe to toe in an all out brawl... PWillcox would smoke RPrefontaine in the ring...
some of best managers around...
these two would be on my A list...
...
all the best for next week/next few weeks...
:cool:
.^sc

[axion]

A bit of movement today, hopefully Cobra comes up trumps.

[Serpie]

It's about FREAKIN" time!
Announcement today regarding drilling about to start on EP413 at Freshwater Point, but with a 1.278% interest in this field you've got to think that it's all about Cobra.
All fingers and toes crossed.

[Huang Chung]

In the bottom drawer Pufin royalities are there for the long term, while Cobra will either send them to 24 or back to 14 ;)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00841380

Results are apparently in line with their pre-drill expectations, but the announcement doesn't seem to have a very optimistic tone to it.

[Huang Chung]

The guys on Sharescene are all excited, so I'm probably off the mark with my assessment.

I know bugger all about oilers in any case. :confused:

[axion]

It didn't read too enthusiastically, but then again I don't really know much about what was being said, but the tone did seem fairly poor. TBH I don't know how much you can take from the sentiment on ShareScene, everyone seems to take their cues from KB.

One curious bit is where they mention the result is what they were expecting, so surely they aren't expecting the bad result?

Encore is down almost 4% on trading on the LSE. (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EO.L)

There is a bit of a conspiracy theory going around saying they're trying to make it look like a bad result as they're currently bidding for the blocks near this one. (bidding closes inside 2 weeks)

[tricha]

It didn't read too enthusiastically, but then again I don't really know much about what was being said, but the tone did seem fairly poor. TBH I don't know how much you can take from the sentiment on ShareScene, everyone seems to take their cues from KB.

One curious bit is where they mention the result is what they were expecting, so surely they aren't expecting the bad result?

Encore is down almost 4% on trading on the LSE. (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EO.L)

There is a bit of a conspiracy theory going around saying they're trying to make it look like a bad result as they're currently bidding for the blocks near this one. (bidding closes inside 2 weeks)

The key, the result that they expected. :confused:

[Sharp737]

Yes and they say that it's going to take 14 days to complete the flow testing. That would make the results after the blocks have been awarded and so gives quite a bit of credence to the conspiracy theory. Unless of course it is just purely co-incidental...

But the reservoir sounds a bit like PPP's Maitland but over 400' thick. Now that is pretty big! Quite a bit of suspense in this one :)

[Serpie]

The low permeability was known, but dont forget that Cobra was always intended to be completed as a horizontal, or series of horizontal wells.
This drill was purely vertical, and intersects 408ft of reservoir. Once they go 6000ft sideways through the reservoir it becomes a very different beast, especially if they start running multiple laterals.

[Gofish.]

A comment from someone who seems to be familiar with Encore on the TMF O&G board:

" Share down 2p, which can only be down to profit takers from those hoping for flow results today rather than 14 days time. "In line with pre-drill expectations" is as positive as it gets from Mr. Booth, so that will do for me. KBC have Cobra as being worth 5.2p unrisked but with considerable potential for upside surprise "

Seems like they have got as good a result as they could have reasonably expected - they always knew that gas was present, now the hard part begins - can they get it to flow economically?
I think the answer will be yes, otherwise why would they have bothered to drill? But, don't count your chickens........

[Huang Chung]

Who knows, tomorrow might be a buying opportunity for those with nerves of steel. :confused:

Happy to watch from the sidelines.

[remy]

wow this threads come alive! yes going to be a very nervous week or so for shareholders, hopefully cobra comes through for norwest, anyone else here sell a few off today incase of a bad announcment?

[Huang Chung]

It's really interesting seeing the range of opinions on the various boards around the place. Pople seem to have this thing opening at all sorts of different values tomorrow...some higher, some lower.

Mattyroo and KB seem to be 'cautiously optimistic'.

All we need now is some comment from the Shrewd One.

Good luck to all holders.

[Sharp737]

Tell you what Huang, if I had more free cash, I would be buying more....but that's my personal opinion

[leonchai]

What does the O&G experts here think about the chances of Cobra being productive now, following the disappointing test results? Despite KB and a few others trying their best to ramp it over in SS, I am feeling quite pessimistic about it.

Although having a 350ft column of gas is great, the flow rate is so poor.(unstimulated) Particularly, a pressure of only 2-300 psi is way too low isn't it?

thanks for your thoughts...

[axion]

Well before we got any of these announcements over at HC it was always said that the flow rates were going to be rubbish from a 'vertical' well, and that we would definately need to go 'horizontal' (not sure what the difference is, but whatever), so KB and co at HC are just saying what they've been saying all a long (as far as I can see).

[macduffy]

Yes, I don't know about HC but KB and some others on SS are generally worth reading on this subject.

No disrespect intended to our own posters!

:)

[axion]

Oh I meant KB at SS not HC. :)

[Huang Chung]

Being totally clueless when it comes to oil.....why did they go vertical in the first place?

Anyhow, from an investment perspective, NWE looks like being dead in the water for maybe some time.

Surely more interesting and prospective stocks elsewhere?

[Sharp737]

Hard to say. Puffin oil field news has got to come out soon and it looks like it's going to be positive. Cobra flow test was disapointing and when they do the fracturing testing who knows. But Cobra may still be very substantial, it's just when I think.

[Gofish.]

"Being totally clueless when it comes to oil.....why did they go vertical in the first place?"

Um, its underground?
Horizontal drilling is done out from a vertical well at the level of the reservoir strata that you want to produce from.
In NWE's case they will need to fracture the rocks to improve gas flow.
The question is whether it can be done to provide sufficient flow - a possible answer is that it has been done in nearby fields.

Looking for a big bounce when it comes.

[Huang Chung]

"Being totally clueless when it comes to oil.....why did they go vertical in the first place?"

Um, its underground?
Horizontal drilling is done out from a vertical well at the level of the reservoir strata that you want to produce from.
In NWE's case they will need to fracture the rocks to improve gas flow.
The question is whether it can be done to provide sufficient flow - a possible answer is that it has been done in nearby fields.

Looking for a big bounce when it comes.

What, the oil is underground?? I thought it was in the branches of trees Gofish.

What I meant to say was that it seems widely understood that they need to go horizontal in the most prospective zones (presumably determined through the seismics), but that didn't seem to be part of the current drilling program.

Just a dumbass question from someone who openly admits to know VERY LITTLE about O&G exploration.

[mattyroo]

They go vertical because it is a damn site cheaper basically.

Horizontal wells require a completely different set of "tools", that have a much higher capital cost, therefore rig leasing rates are 2 - 3 times higher per day.

Horizontal wells are also much slower to drill, therefore requiring more lease days.

So costs for a horizontal well are disproportionately higher.

[Serpie]

I must congratulate Tricha on a well timed exit last week. Well played!

I had mine up for sale yesterday morning, but pulled them. Stuck in there now so I'll ride it out with my small holding.

Re-entering Tricha?

[Huang Chung]

They go vertical because it is a damn site cheaper basically.

Horizontal wells require a completely different set of "tools", that have a much higher capital cost, therefore rig leasing rates are 2 - 3 times higher per day.

Horizontal wells are also much slower to drill, therefore requiring more lease days.

So costs for a horizontal well are disproportionately higher.

Thanks for that Mattyroo....always keen to learn. I'm sure there are many others out there like me who are interested in these things, but don't have a proper grasp on the technical issues.

I was also curious to know what they meant by 'suspended'....I presume this means that they will release the rig, go away, do some more analysis, re-book the same or another rig and re-enter the same hole or drill in a different location on the prospect. I guess what I'm driving at is that there could be a delay now for 6 months to maybe a year or more....is this correct?

[Serpie]

HC,

The last quarterly said "assuming a commercial production test result from the Cobra appraisal well the consortium would re-enter the wellbore at a later date to drill one or more horizontal laterals in order to maximise production within the field" so even with high unstimulated flow rates they would've plugged it.

My understanding is that they dont intend to return to Cobra until 2009 to drill the laterals and commence production.

[Huang Chung]

Thanks Serp.....looks like the focus of punters might now turn back to Puffin for a while. :eek:

[Serpie]

If Puffin can grab everyone's attention then that would be great too, but all it may do is provide an exit window for thosr who aren't convinced about Cobra.

Cobra is dominating all NWE thoughts at the moment, and I can't help thinking that there's something that they're not telling us.
And that something is either very good, or very bad. Time will tell.

[Crypto Crude]

Little Norwest really taking a turn with Delay of Wisteria...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Little Norwest really taking a turn with Delay of Wisteria...
:cool:
.^sc

NWE ann - Puffin 11 spuds

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NWE&E=ASX&N=420184

[remy]

just wondering if any one on sharetrader still holds this stock, very disapointing re wisteria :( prob wont see this back in the 20s for a good 6 months, its very tempting to average down at these levels.. what are other holders thoughts on the stock

[Crypto Crude]

Im pretty funked off Remy,
I lost my SS membership because of this company...
I wont comment on the company, ive already said too much...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

just wondering if any one on sharetrader still holds this stock, very disapointing re wisteria :( prob wont see this back in the 20s for a good 6 months, its very tempting to average down at these levels.. what are other holders thoughts on the stock

WELL Remy, according to Peter Strauhan yesterday, he values them around 19 cents, so if u bought at this price probabaly a bargin in a normal market, in a bear market :confused:

[Serpie]

I've still got a handful Remy, but they're not worth cashing in at this price so I've just left them and forgotten about them.

I don't think I'd classify Wisteria as very disappointing at it was a widlcat with a 10-15% chance of success, so never really had high hopes for it.

I'd call Cobra and Puffin very disappointing though, not necessarily because of what's there, but rather because of how long they're taking to extract it.

Plenty of upside here but too much bad blood for me to put any more money into it at this stage.

[Brut]

I'm stilling holding a few of these, sitting in the bottom of my draw with a few other Species.

SC, lets be honest here. You never got banned from SS because you were knocking NWE, you got banned because you were upset with one person.

[macduffy]

I have to confess to holding a few in the bottom drawer too.
I guess cash will continue to dribble in from the Puffin royalty so the company shouldn't fold. Sinopec's influence may even give this a decent boost. The North Sea gas may come good sometime and they will participate in the occasional new drill. I'm not holding my breath but the experience has taught me to take a more disciplined approach to investing in O and G stocks, ie rediscovered the importance of stop losses.

:o

[remy]

Im pretty funked off Remy,
I lost my SS membership because of this company...
I wont comment on the company, ive already said too much...
:cool:
.^sc



i saw that and thought it was pretty unfair, i got banned on here when i called that nzogsux guy a troll, stock forum admins are pretty harsh lol :o

[Crypto Crude]

Brut,
I was mocking the company... And I meant not to mock KB, but address my thoughts...
last week I re-registered and I apologised to KB (in good nature) and they banned me again...
Thinking about what happened way back... I was made a mockery by them, from the fact that I sold when I first disclosed it when the markets were going bad (3rd quarter last year).... After I sold, it then ran from mid 20's to mid 30's within a few weeks......
I did sell out (on good advice, and never thought about rebuying, even though the fundamentals pointed to a potential royalty stream many times larger than the market value, with further delayed timing of the assets)....
What I did say which ruffled a few feathers was-> little Norwest Should liquidate all its assets to focus on the main draw cards including Puffin (at that time Wisteria), and Cobra...
I stand by that...
and only at the time of Puffin Royalties being large enough to sustain a growing company (being proactive in its permits/acerage)(then build them back up)....
The assets NWE have are still good (for the changing market value of them), I was just alittle concerned how long they would take to unfold and for that reason I gave a bad write up, including what the markets could do to a stock in NWE's position...
That's not to say that Norwest wont perform (from here), but its not the type of investment I want anymore...
mattyroo was a pretty good insight into Puffin eg where he commented about the FPSO and all that, but in the end it comes down to the individual pulling the trigger and selling...
when first production problems came through, then I sold...
perhaps alittle more easier with the information we were given...
KB is such a quality poster that his posts mould investors into his way of thinking (which is a naturally bullish mould), its his responsibility to make correct calls and he has not changed sentiment on the stock even though its slid from 30c to 6c...
Ive just posted on the issue that no one else will address properly that has caused such an uproar which has cost me my name on SS and the opportunity to enter in those cool share picking comps...
If Ive done a bad thing for coming back and posting, then so be it...
If Ive put a few posters noses out, then so be it...
I did apologise and its the responsibility of the quality poster to make calls...
What happened to NWE was less to do with market risk, and more to do with Company performance and poor drilling success...
:cool:
.^sc

[Serpie]

Norwest up 30% today. May Peter Strachan is buying up?

[macduffy]

Norwest up 30% today. May Peter Strachan is buying up?

It's a start.

I need about 300%!

:o

[mattyroo]

I've still got a few of these, holding at a bit of a loss... Got rid of most them before the big tumble.

Anyway, been trying to learn a bit 'bout charting, and looking at a NWE chart, it almost looks like it is turning the corner.... Which is a damn sight better than most of the other oilers out there, that still appear to be precariously gripping the cliff face!

I'm no expert in charting, but if any of you charting wizards out there care to have a look and give us some thoughts, that would be appreciated.

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/ASX/ASX-NWE-20081209.png

[macduffy]

I've still got a few of these, holding at a bit of a loss... Got rid of most them before the big tumble.

Anyway, been trying to learn a bit 'bout charting, and looking at a NWE chart, it almost looks like it is turning the corner.... Which is a damn sight better than most of the other oilers out there, that still appear to be precariously gripping the cliff face!

I'm no expert in charting, but if any of you charting wizards out there care to have a look and give us some thoughts, that would be appreciated.


Hi matty.

Good to hear from you, your comments in another place saved me a bit on NWE but, like you, I still have a small interest.
Can't really comment from a TA perspective except to say that to my uneducated eye it doesn't seem to be giving any reason to buy.

Cheers

[shasta]

Hi matty.

Good to hear from you, your comments in another place saved me a bit on NWE but, like you, I still have a small interest.
Can't really comment from a TA perspective except to say that to my uneducated eye it doesn't seem to be giving any reason to buy.

Cheers

NWE forced to sell its North Sea permits (incl Cobra) :(

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NWE&E=ASX&N=442722

NWE needs AED to come good real quick!

[Serpie]

I was talking to Shrewd last night and he suggested that NWE at 1.3c was good buying. Up 85% at the moment. I hope you got a few in between the AED ann and the NWE ann Shrewdy!

[Xerof]

There will be a late rush to take up $5,000 worth of shares at 1.25 cents tomorrow and Monday under the SSP I would say.

Nice timing by AED

[Oiler]

I was talking to Shrewd last night and he suggested that NWE at 1.3c was good buying. Up 85% at the moment. I hope you got a few in between the AED ann and the NWE ann Shrewdy!

Shrewd I hope you did get into NWE. We need you to buy in and drive the price up some more so that I can see a "blue arrow" on my portfolio rather than a "red one" ;)

I think there is still life in NWE.

Come on "roo" shoot me down :)

[macduffy]

There will be a late rush to take up $5,000 worth of shares at 1.25 cents tomorrow and Monday under the SSP I would say.

Nice timing by AED

No need to wait till tomorrow.
Can be done now, using BPay.
Having vowed that I wouldn't throw any more good money after bad I've now done just that, but only in a minor way, $1000 for 80,000 shares.

[Dr_Who]

Why do you guys like this stock so much at these levels?

I am keen to join the fun, but want more info first.

[Serpie]

So that's why they extended the closing day for the SPP!
I might have to call my broker. It's been a long time since I spoke to him!