MQG Macquarie Group

[AMR]

Any thoughts on Macquarie Bank? I'm thinking of entering when the current downtrend ends but I am a bit unsure about it's exposure to the subprime sector and whether there would be any lingering effects.

[geezy]

This is a great stock IMO but is greatly affected by the US markets. MBL has announced that they are not affected by sub prime problems accept for their Fortress fund.

It will be a great buy but will only go back up if the US market stabilizes.

They still hold great infra assets that do not look like they will devalue that much in the near term.

Hope this helps

[Snapper]

I see that First NZ has it as an 'outperform'. The sub-prime thing has affected a couple of their funds aimed at higher risk fixed interest investors. Apart from pi$$ing the investors in these funds off, there is very little risk to Macq itself apart from a general slide in equity markets.

[soulman]

I am down quite a bit from MBL still. Bought the first lot at $87 (just a few weeks ago, can you imagine). Was thinking of jumping in at $70 for long-term hold as the other trades were just that, trades. Everything will come down to their half yearly result in October later this year. I must say, the reason why I bought at $87 is because of their upbeat AGM.

[geezy]

$70 is their fair valuation, so i would say a recommend buy. at that price. too bad i got no money and dont wish to get too involved as well as market volatility is still very much around and wont see them dying off yet :(

[Dazza]

im in at 79.77 i brought 2 days be4 they announced the sub prime thing so im gutted, thought i had got it at a bargain!!

IMO 70 too as a bargian, but i just didnt have to funds to top up at 70 eh

they are australias biggest investment bank so anyone wanting to raise anything would obviously go to them.

they markets in australsia has been saturated, so i have looked into their overseas prospects and that seems to moving in the right direction.

[winner69]

Dazza - just as well u had no cash the other day eh

I wouldn't rush in now just because the price is long way off $100 - I'm sure we will hear a lot more about the inner workings of this convulated set of debt laden companies.

Did you know MacBank has over 800 separate 'controlled entities' and many of these also have other 'controlled entities' ...... wonder if any one person knows how much debt (not disclosed in MacBank accounts) there really is ..... and the cost of debt just got higher ..... and I nearly forgot that once the cost of capital goes up the asset valuation models that MacBank run all of a sudden reduce the value of the assets .... but then MacBank probably have other means to fix that

[OneUp]

MBL will live to fight another day.

Wouldn't touch in now though - could be a long time for the good times to return.

[ratkin]

Note how all the instos had this down as a screaming buy , giving price targets of 100+
Just another example of the crooks at work.

Guaranteed they knew of forthcoming problems and were desperate to offload as much as they could while simultaneously ramping it as a buy.

These days if anything rated a big buy by the instos then avoid. It no coincidence that the stocks they have been most bullish about have been financial stocks , the very ones now being caned.

[winner69]

Ratkin - could this 'crash' (if it happens) be the end of capitalism as we know it?

Maybe guys like Mahatma Ghandi, Bernard Lietaer and Muhammad Yunus and their thinking were right .... even Marx was misinterpreted

Not tomorrow .... not next week .... not next year .... but sometime.

Just as the Berlin Wall falling was the end of communism maybe it is another wall in Wall St falling that signals the end of capitalism

[OneUp]

Perhaps a little too early to call the end of the world?

[ratkin]

Could be another symptom of the end of the american empire, the rise of the Chinese will be unstoppable , the west is now in the same position as the roman empire just before its demise. Barbarians at the gates while debauchary and decadence consume the citizens.
The genie is out of the bottle , no going back now, the west going to be hit on all fronts , religious , economic and even the planet is revolting

[winner69]

Could be another symptom of the end of the american empire, the rise of the Chinese will be unstoppable , the west is now in the same position as the roman empire just before its demise. Barbarians at the gates while debauchary and decadence consume the citizens.
The genie is out of the bottle , no going back now, the west going to be hit on all fronts , religious , economic and even the planet is revolting

Ratkin - Seeing you into a bit of reading you should try to get a copy of Rome Inc! by Stanley Bing ....

(Bing writes a column in Fortune each week as well)

[scorp57]

haha i find it amusing that a 10% market correction can cause people to think its the demise of the whole US empire.

The markets have risen for so long, and now they are taking a well deserved breather. Yes we are being put thru the ringer, but most stocks that rise quickly, fall even quicker at trimes like these.

just remember fundamentals, eventually they will be what the markets are focusing on again.

[steve fleming]

Note how all the instos had this down as a screaming buy , giving price targets of 100+
Just another example of the crooks at work.

Guaranteed they knew of forthcoming problems and were desperate to offload as much as they could while simultaneously ramping it as a buy.

These days if anything rated a big buy by the instos then avoid. It no coincidence that the stocks they have been most bullish about have been financial stocks , the very ones now being caned.

haha...what a absolute load of rubbish!

Your argument fatally ignores the fact that MBL made a $1billion placement to "instos" at $87 just a couple of months ago.

anyway, by “instos” I presume you meant to say sharebrokers? – I don’t know any institutions that publish price targets on their investments.

Given that MBL is trading on a PE of 10, when historically (over the last 10 years) it has averaged a PE of 17-18 any rational broker would be silly to call MBL a sell on a fundamental basis….especially now that MBL is far less riskier investment than any time over the last 10 years, given its considerable geographical and investment stream diversification together with its success at bulking up its annuity flows...and especially that in its last guidance for FY08 MBL was way ahead on its pcp....there was no reason to call MBL a sell.

I see even today the most respected and credible banking analyst in Australia – Brian Johnson from JP Morgan has come out today with a MBL target of $101.61….while ABN Amro came out yesterday with a $115 target

Of the 11 brokers covering MBL 9 have it as a buy and 2 a hold…- consensus target is $110.2.....These are all fully modelled DCF valuations based on rational assumptions….ask them for a copy and then dispute their assumptions if you don’t like/doubt the targets

and I am not sticking up for these brokers, am just saying that there was no reason to call MBL a sell on a fundamental basis.

On a technical basis though, thats a completely diff story, but I don’t know any brokers that publish technical targets ..

What would your valuation of MBL be, Ratkin?

[ratkin]

There no way of knowing what its worth in the present climate.
All we can say with certainty is that its only worth what people are prepared to pay for it , and that seems to be decreasing by the day . 100 dollars seems like dreamland at present.


Will hunt that book down Winner , sounds good reading in these uncertain times

[moimoi]

am reasonably certain i saw something on the news saying they had $100b in assets with $1b exposure to the "subprime" carry-on.

A mate of mine would say this is 3 fifths of F.A. :p

[Phaedrus]

Buy signals - Green arrows.
Sell signals - Red arrows.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MBL815.gif

[Halebop]

Ah what could have been. I short sold a fair chunk of MBL CFD's in May but exited in June at a reasonable profit but nothing like what it could have been today. ...Hindsight is a six sigma investor methinks. :rolleyes:

[ratkin]

Why has the bank not come out to calm investors nerves? Have a feeling its in a bad way

People keep quoting the historically low PE , however if earnings suffer , as they will then that PE could well rise much higher

[soulman]

MBL going berserk after releasing a statement stating profits will be up approximately 40% for the first half.

Missed out this morning at $74, missed at $70 last week but I do hold a bit of MBL bought at the mid $80's. Hence, still bleeding but would have been happier with a cheaper purchase. I was always going to buy more MBL at $70 but when that time came, I chicken out and pushed the bid price to $68.50 and that days low was $69.10.

Now, this is substance. All the fear in the world cannot compare to a company's bottom line.

[OneUp]

The key is next six months profit, not last six months.

Mr Ward said: “Investors should exercise particular caution in drawing inferences
from the expected first half result for the full year result especially because of the
difficulty in predicting market conditions for the remainder of the financial year."

[soulman]

Yes OneUp, but the thing is, MBL always said that - the usual caveat of 'subject to market condition' so the next 6 months is no different. The fact that they said the figure 40% is the reason for the spike because I and many others are probably only expecting 20-30% and that was when the share price was $89. So now at $77's, it's a steal. I will not buy today though because the rise today is a bit too much. If MBL goes another $2 next Monday, I wouldn't be suprise.

[winner69]

Soulman ...... suppose you are into MQG (ex MBL) big time seeing the price down in the mid 60's

[soulman]

Sad to say so Winner but I bought more in the $76 zone. No more cash and too much going around with investment bank in the US and here. BNB also dropping like stone. At least MQG pays some dividend but that will all depends on future earnings. $1.45 DPS comin at end of Jan will soothe the pain somewhat. Just a little soothing though as capital losses are currently expanding exponentially.

Just hope MQG is not involve too much in the sub-prime and maybe possibly they can steal business from their US counterpart due to their publicity.

[Revhead]

I'm surprised anyone is buying shares in the finance/banking sectors. With the sub-prime fiasco and related monetary bad news, any shares with the slightest hint of involvment have been absolutely thrashed!! BNB and M. bank are case in point. BNB for example used to trade in the mid 30's. Now its in the very low 20's. This thrashing is despite the fact that BNB, for example, have virtually no exposure.

A real melt-down is on the cards and the banking stocks will get slaughtered when it happens.

Regardless of how cheap these shares look, now is not the time to be holding them! Just my opinion of course....

[soulman]

I am holding and hoping. No need to get panicky here. It might get worst but these subprime losses by the US and Europe banks will sort themselves out eventually. These losses will write themselves out overtime (could be 2 years) and then back to business. If anything, the investment bank will learn not to take these kind of risk later on.

Not buying as mistakes has been made.

[The Big Ease]

how many times do these guys need to tell the market they are clean before it is believed?

i bought in at 76 and am very tempted to buy some more at current prices. however, i suspect mqg will get battered when the investment banks announce further losses and/or the market takes another tumble.

they are at 10* earnings and growing 25% YOY. delayed asset sales will probably mean a bigger profit when the market normalises. i dont see any fundamental reason why this comp wont continue its merry profit growing ways.

i would love to get some opinions on this stock. why is the market so scared?

[soulman]

Big Ease, the reaction the other day was in synch with US investment bank. The retirement of Alan Moss played a part in that massive decline, although N Moore is highly regarded. The 23% increase in profit forecast should be beat as MQG usually understate and outperform. More like 25% when May comes.

The next year performance is what investors fret about. That's why market are scared ATM.

PE of 10 times and div yield more than 5.3% FF tells the tale of this FY. Next year, even with a 10% increase, MQG should roared back to their all-time high and should break $100.

I too bought at $76.

[The Big Ease]

it would be a brave man who thought MQG wouldnt grow earnings next year, given their record. if you note, the investment banks who have managed to avoid the sub-prime debacle are actually doing extremely well. trading conditions are still very very reasonable for those with strong balance sheets, cash on hand and minimal exposure to the sub-prime sector.

[Huang Chung]

After the Allco and MFS fallout (very painful personally), I've lost faith in this style of company. Macquarie is probably a cut above the rest, but I'm still weary.

[The Big Ease]

anyone suspicious about the timing of moss' departure?

[Huang Chung]

anyone suspicious about the timing of moss' departure?

No evidence, but you do have to wonder.

1. The share price is low, and these guys usually like to go out on a high note.

2. Moss is relatively young. About to turn 60 I believe.

3. Financially, running the Millionaire's Factory is about the best gig you can get.

There again, there's no way I plan to be working when I get to 60, and he certainly doesn't need to be working anymore, so why work till you drop? A couple of nice directorships might be all he wants at this time in his life.

A good point to raise all the same.......

[The Big Ease]

i dont think there is anything in it.
a poster whom i respect on another board raised this and i put forward the case that there didnt seem anything in it. just interested in some opinions.

doubt he was sacked or even pushed, given how well they seem to be floating through this "credit crisis".

[steve fleming]

Macquarie's Financial year ended this week (31 MArch)

Rumours are the mark to market write-downs will be substantial - between $500million to $1 billion.

[The Big Ease]

what do you think? buying in the $30's?

[Huang Chung]

Macquarie's Financial year ended this week (31 MArch)

Rumours are the mark to market write-downs will be substantial - between $500million to $1 billion.

A news article from way back in August last year.....

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1993905.htm

Their results will be interesting.

[winner69]

There was an article somewhere the other day (can't find it now) about the millions (50+) they had spent in buying MIG shares to shore up the shareprice from those nasty hedge funds who had shorted MIG

[steve fleming]

Looks like there are a few out there short MQG

"About $3.2 billion of Macquarie Group stock is out on loan (as of April 24) which represents 76% utilisation of stock on loan and about 20.6% of Macquarie's market cap.

This would take 24 days of average-volume buying in the stock to close out the position.

The first date when the amount of Macquarie stock on loan surpassed $1 billion was on May 21 last year when US short-seller Jim Chanos went public with his position. He is believed to have taken his first short at $87.

It was on January 11 this year, however, when the dramatic increase in the short position really took place. There was a single loan of $28 million shares during the week of the credit crisis meltdown."

http://business.smh.com.au/a-bag-of-shorts/20080428-2903.html

[winner69]

MCQ below $20 and back to 2002 prices and big shareholder selling out as more and more satelites plead poverty

Cheap? but the chart says stay for now

[winner69]

$17.50 now and plenty of action on the market today .... deny capital raising imminent .... getting interesting

Amazing not that long ago MCQ were in a race to become the first to become a $100 share .... and of the contenders I feel they have dropped the most

[Huang Chung]

Held MQG for a couple of hours today, but sold out at a tiny profit to pick up some Wesfarmers that fell back quite a bit by the end of the day.

Never really feel comfortable holding Macquarie.....

[The Big Ease]

tony boyd seems to know more about mqg than most pundits

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Macqurie-$pd20090226-PM56P?OpenDocument&src=sph

apparently nothing to worry about.
one thing i have noticed is that WES and MQG trade predictably on the MACD indicator.

[winner69]

In the $15's now ..... persistent selling pressre .... maybe even from the MacBelivers out there

MGC even startign putting out announcements trying to appease the 'misinformed' market

Maybe this is the beginning of the end of the Mac as we know it .... that guy in US who said it was a dud last year could have been right

Will shorting MQC be allowed next week ..... a lot of the gains to have made in doing that already gone ..... but heck could be very interesting if allowed

Worse still this could be the realisation that a lot of Aussie financial institutions (even the big 4) are not as safe as most thought .... is Australia still the lucky country? .... and wow what would be the implications for NZ

Interesting times .... the MCQ chart must be saying something

[winner69]

The announcement today sort of suggests a divorce from all the satelites .... have made our money on them and now we will let them fend for themselves

Mac gets reduced fees etc and takes some writedowns on their investments in each ....... and remorhs themselves into something else .... and hope there not too much reputational risk when a few Macquarie things go belly up

Just made MIG, MAP et al even more dangerous

Interesting stuff how the games the big boys play pan out ... and small investors think they can make a few bob along the way .... thats not investing

[Dr_Who]

Looks like game over for MQG.

[The Big Ease]

hmm why do you say that?

[geezy]

is shorting still allowed on the ASX? theres a piece of reports, those nasty hedge funds are trying to short OZ banks.

Macquire already started being hit?

[soulman]

Financial shares are still not allowed to be shorted as the ban has not been lifted. This include MQG. A bounce in MQG today but is this the dead cat version.

[geezy]

can mac bank ever stage a come back?

[The Big Ease]

can mac bank ever stage a come back?

i think so.
18 months into the worst financial crisis in nearly a century and they are still holding up nicely for an investment bank.

I bought in today expecting a bounce back to between 25-30 dollars after the recent sell off.

what do the charts say?

[geezy]

25-30 mark is an ok target if you bought it off during the 17 dollar mark.

happy hunting!

I just hope they pay their execs less. investment bankers dont deserve those money, its not theirs anyways . my 2cents

[soulman]

Good luck Big Ease. I think Citi announcement last night got you into MacBank today?

[The Big Ease]

Good luck Big Ease. I think Citi announcement last night got you into MacBank today?

that and the recent sell-off looks to me to encourage a bounce of sorts.

[The Big Ease]

well mqg breaking through some short term down trends.
another good day on the dji and ftse will help it along a little further. must be close to the shorters wanting to cover themselves. doubt would have to creep in at sometime.

i have read of charlie aitken proclaiming the shorters are about to get caught, but he is half twit and a few parts wisdom. I haven't really worked out when he is informed and when he is trying to be the australian jim cramer.




anyone handy with a chart?

[The Big Ease]

cheers AA.
i was lucky to get in at around 18 bucks.
so far its looking good.

[The Big Ease]

thanks AA. it makes sense ;)
btw, i initially got in at 18 because it just looked right on the MACD, OBV and RSI.
Interestingly, i have no idea what any of these measure. they just suggested the possibility of an upswing given the historical behaviour of the stock...34% later....she is all smiles!

[The Big Ease]

dow and ftse both down slightly.
some financials were battered in the US.
should see the pullback in MQG today. lets see how it goes.

[The Big Ease]

and im out.
nice trade. it does look like pulling back, though it has bounced quite hard off intraday lows (for which i sold out for :( )

nevermind, profit is a profit.
thanks for the chart AA. always handy.

[Thumpa]

Here's another Macquarie offshoot that looks interesting at the moment.

MCW.ASX - Macquarie Countrywide


http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/MCW.png

[The Big Ease]

cheers AA.
i thought so too. the only bummer was i gave up ~7% when i couldve only given up 3% for the day. nevermind, still a good trade in one week.

i agree with everything youve said so far and they are exactly the reasons i sold.
it could surprise because i believe MQG to be severely undervalued, but thats a different playbook.
thanks for your comments.

[mark100]

Nice trade TBE and thanks for the charts AA

[STRAT]

I Purchased MDT today at 2.6c, worth a look

AAHi AA,
Just had a look at MDT. Im s little perplexed as to why you chose to enter here :confused:

[pedro.nz]

Interesting - have a look at CER - Similar scenario?? - up 43% at time of this post

[STRAT]

I like it :D but would be concerned as to why they were dumping. Thanks AA.

[STRAT]

ASX index rebalance no longer in the ASX200

AAI know thats a large number of shares to move and impact on the sp in inevitable but surely dumping them all on one day is less that clever unless there is an alternative reason? Of course its also possible the share holder dumping may have their own problems or reasons. Im not pushing you to justify your trade in any way AA , just mulling it over

[Thumpa]

Here's another Macquarie offshoot that looks interesting at the moment.

MCW.ASX - Macquarie Countrywide


http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u150/soundzgoodgood/MCW.png


And we have 24 cents today ...... MCW announces Sale of 5 Properties for A$93 Million

[geezy]

with all M & A virtually dead, where will MQG get its growth in the next few years ?

[pedro.nz]

Just looked - at 4c - well done AA

[The Big Ease]

cheers AA.
nice trading btw.

[winner69]

Well well ..... Macquarie this and Macquarie that along with MQC all have a decent surge and then MQC and MAP into a trading halt for a few days

As whatsup would say whatsup

Possibly why IFT showed a bit an up today

[winner69]

Pack of rip off bastards .... and probably still at it according to this story

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/macquarie-private-wealth-the-silver-doughnut-that-left-a-hole-in-investors-nest-eggs-20140801-zzcst.html

[peat]

Macquarie remains well positioned to deliver superior performance

[Joshuatree]

The millionaires factory up re $10 to $181.00 on this.

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