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sb9
15-02-2021, 10:55 AM
Noel Leeming only decent part of WHS group.

Even NL is not great from customer service point of view, had a very bad experience recently (long story) and makes you wonder how do they train their staff...suppose its all about $, no one cares a hoot about customers...

ratkin
15-02-2021, 11:04 AM
Even NL is not great from customer service point of view, had a very bad experience recently (long story) and makes you wonder how do they train their staff...suppose its all about $, no one cares a hoot about customers...

Yeah they are shocking. Took an order from me for something they knew perfectly well would not be available for many months, only became apparent to me when I queried why it was taking so long. They tried to put all the blame on the person who took my order.

peat
15-02-2021, 11:56 AM
yes NL and JB Hi-fi recently were offering some speakers for my PC that I wanted for $320 but indeterminate delivery date.
Harvey Norman had stock but were $399.
Sometimes you have to pay if you actually want
Just like shares that are illiquid lol.

Beagle
15-02-2021, 12:42 PM
yes NL and JB Hi-fi recently were offering some speakers for my PC that I wanted for $320 but indeterminate delivery date.
Harvey Norman had stock but were $399.
Sometimes you have to pay if you actually want
Just like shares that are illiquid lol.

Seeing this right across many industries. Pre Covid pricing when supply chains and shipping lines were in a normal state and post covid pricing where if you are fortunate to procure the item you want, the chances of getting any sort of a deal are minimal.

Agree 100% with Winner, Noel Leeming is by far the best part of the WHS group.

sb9
15-02-2021, 12:52 PM
Yeah they are shocking. Took an order from me for something they knew perfectly well would not be available for many months, only became apparent to me when I queried why it was taking so long. They tried to put all the blame on the person who took my order.

Mine was even worst, offered me (via an email) free redemption of headphones of an order still to be delivered due to supply chain issues, which was fine by me. However, when I went into store to redeem they've no clue nor does their call centre and they had to check with their merchandise team which took good a week or so, nuff said..

bull....
16-02-2021, 09:58 AM
further on JB HIFI the ceo commented that strong sales continued in January and they see no let up in demand while travel is restricted. also they have been able to lift there margins during this period.

be interesting if the warehouse in NZ report along similar lines. ( warehouse most relevant to JB cause of noel leeming and to a lesser extent warehouse itself games , electronic's)

JohnnyTheHorse
25-02-2021, 02:16 PM
Wow retail is on absolute fire. Another huge upgrade from WHS - half year NPAT from >$90m to >$110m and it has been 1.5 months since that last upgrade. Margins improving too from 170bps to 185bps. Suspect those margins will do even better with this strengthening dollar.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/368233

nztx
25-02-2021, 02:24 PM
Yes indeed Retail is doing well - watch for HLG & BGP to follow suit .. :)

bull....
25-02-2021, 02:24 PM
Wow retail is on absolute fire. Another huge upgrade from WHS - half year NPAT from >$90m to >$110m and it has been 1.5 months since that last upgrade. Margins improving too from 170bps to 185bps. Suspect those margins will do even better with this strengthening dollar.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/368233

your not wrong i think things will do very well for them in the for see able future all the stars aligning. hoping for a extra big div now

nztx
25-02-2021, 02:29 PM
Following closely on heels of what WHS are paying 4 Mar 21 for last year -- SP may well accelerate towards the 4-00
if they pay an extra generous H1 Interim Div .. ;)

bull....
25-02-2021, 02:33 PM
Following closely on heels of what WHS are paying 4 Mar 21 for last year -- SP may well accelerate towards the 4-00
if they pay an extra generous H1 Interim Div .. ;)

traditionally whs has paid 10cps in march and around 6cps mid year odd so lets hope that the minimum call is 10cps this march and resumption of full yr divs on current pricing would mean a 7.15% yield very juicy so your $4 might not be out of contention based on these returns in a low rate environment

JohnnyTheHorse
25-02-2021, 02:45 PM
Very strong technical too - weekly bull flag broken bullish. Will be very surprised if this doesn't see at least 350 in the next day.

JohnnyTheHorse
25-02-2021, 03:35 PM
On my CFD provider they have 12% of their clients value sold short on WHS. They should help the price when they cover their positions.

ratkin
25-02-2021, 03:53 PM
The Warehouse seems to have turned things around, onwards and upwards. Lots of good news flowing out of late, looks like it a genuine turnaround story.

bull....
25-02-2021, 04:49 PM
The Warehouse seems to have turned things around, onwards and upwards. Lots of good news flowing out of late, looks like it a genuine turnaround story.

be able to confirm it once the results come out

bull....
26-02-2021, 02:30 PM
harvey norman results out today really good result , they are saying sales from jan to current date up double digits on last same period in 2020. So looks like momentum is continuing according to jb and harvey and warehouse

winner69
01-03-2021, 12:53 PM
Share price has sure reacted to paying the wage subsidy back, booming sales updates and restating dividends ....and even the prospects of a 20 cent divie over the full year

Share price now about $3.30 - a 7 year high -- and up 65% since October

Share price might even go 7 bucks again - the glory days of before the GFC etc ..... but as Springsteen says glory days often pass in the wink of a young girls eyes and 'A little of the glory of, well time slips away / And leaves you with nothing mister but
Boring stories of ... glory days'

I feel really bad that I (back in October I 9and to some extent percy) told Beagle why bother with WHS r and he sold o......t of what was going to be one of his high yielding shares. Why I feel really bad .... he could have been looking at maybe 15% plus yield (on what he paid) ...and would have got the 65% gain as well. Whatever he's probably done well with other things in the meantime.


- Momentum got me back in i(not that much) in spite of my bad view of Nick and the company ... I'm hoping for those glory days of 7 bucks again

Beagle
01-03-2021, 01:15 PM
WHS certainly has been a surprise and they are doing well at present converting sales momentum into bottom line profit, that's for sure !
Don't feel bad mate, I can think for myself. I don't ever expect that every decision I make to buy or sell will be a winner but I did use the WHS sale proceeds as part of the funding to back up the truck on OCA at just on $1. 45% inclusive of dividend is not too shabby for the last 6 months with them, especially on top of the 100% profit on the first big tranche of them I bought back in May 2020..

I can't quite work out how WHS have been so successful at translating sales momentum to the bottom line given they're facing the same supply chain and transportation issues as other retailers ? Noel Leeming as we've discussed before several times is without any doubt the jewel in their crown...I guess sales there must be absolutely on fire and at close to full retail. Maybe there's been widespread buying of fridge-freezers to sure up their food reserves ?

How much of the current profitability and sales boom will be durable going forward is the $64,000 question ? Thoughts on second half profitability ?

winner69
01-03-2021, 01:22 PM
I think me old mate ratkin bought some about 160 ....doubled his money

Well done ratkin

ratkin
01-03-2021, 01:28 PM
I think me old mate ratkin bought some about 160 ....doubled his money

Well done ratkin

Couldnt believe it was matched, some were actually in the 1.50s on the day of first lockdown when Warehouse were told they had to shut. Never expected it to be matched as was just a cheeky offer, but there were literally no other buyers that day and people were panicking.
What I like about those trades is you can actually see them on the chart, proud that mine were the lowest paid for the stock in well over 10 years.

Just wish I had been braver that day and gone all in on everything but I guess that applies to all of us. Was pretty scary at the time


As for 7 dollars I doubt it, that was in the heyday of the warehouse when the shops were heaving with people and everyone got a bargain.

bull....
02-03-2021, 09:06 AM
Share price has sure reacted to paying the wage subsidy back, booming sales updates and restating dividends ....and even the prospects of a 20 cent divie over the full year

Share price now about $3.30 - a 7 year high -- and up 65% since October

Share price might even go 7 bucks again - the glory days of before the GFC etc ..... but as Springsteen says glory days often pass in the wink of a young girls eyes and 'A little of the glory of, well time slips away / And leaves you with nothing mister but
Boring stories of ... glory days'

I feel really bad that I (back in October I 9and to some extent percy) told Beagle why bother with WHS r and he sold o......t of what was going to be one of his high yielding shares. Why I feel really bad .... he could have been looking at maybe 15% plus yield (on what he paid) ...and would have got the 65% gain as well. Whatever he's probably done well with other things in the meantime.


- Momentum got me back in i(not that much) in spite of my bad view of Nick and the company ... I'm hoping for those glory days of 7 bucks again

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back

winner69
02-03-2021, 09:17 AM
in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back

Real spooky those comparisons

Might be saying that while HLG Board was acting in the best interests of shareholders by maximising shareholder wealth by keeping the subsidies they could actually have destroyed $100m of shareholder wealth because of less positive market sentiment towards them.

difference in market cap if share price had gone up 29% instead of 7%

BlackPeter
02-03-2021, 09:30 AM
in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back

In the last 12 months:

WHS is up 57%
BGP is up 53%

HLG is up 57%

It appears the decision whether to pay back or not makes no difference at all in the medium run :p - HLG just ramped up a bit earlier than the laggards WHS and BGP;

winner69
02-03-2021, 09:33 AM
In the last 12 months:

WHS is up 57%
BGP is up 53%

HLG is up 57%

It appears the decision whether to pay back or not makes no difference at all in the medium run :p - HLG just ramped up a bit earlier than the laggards WHS and BGP;

Recent sentiment is what matters more

HLG meant to be 9 bucks by now according to some ...but something has held it back ..hmmm

Beagle
02-03-2021, 10:43 AM
WHS certainly has been a surprise and they are doing well at present converting sales momentum into bottom line profit, that's for sure !
Don't feel bad mate, I can think for myself. I don't ever expect that every decision I make to buy or sell will be a winner but I did use the WHS sale proceeds as part of the funding to back up the truck on OCA at just on $1. 45% inclusive of dividend is not too shabby for the last 6 months with them, especially on top of the 100% profit on the first big tranche of them I bought back in May 2020..

I can't quite work out how WHS have been so successful at translating sales momentum to the bottom line given they're facing the same supply chain and transportation issues as other retailers ? Noel Leeming as we've discussed before several times is without any doubt the jewel in their crown...I guess sales there must be absolutely on fire and at close to full retail. Maybe there's been widespread buying of fridge-freezers to sure up their food reserves ?

How much of the current profitability and sales boom will be durable going forward is the $64,000 question ? Thoughts on second half profitability ?


Revised guidance is that H1 FY21 Adjusted NPAT will exceed $110m, compared to
a figure of $46.2m in H1 FY20. The half year result is still subject to the
finalisation of audit review.

People seem more interested in debating the ESG issue, (impossible for me to overstate how incredibly bored I am with that extremely repetitive nonsense) than actually trying to have a go at this $64,000 question....go figure ?

I guess seeing as nobody else will opine on it I will have a best guess.
1. Currency tailwinds look likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.
2. I have always said the most reliable indicator of the near term future is the near term past and will stick to that core belief.
3. Almost certain that some of the current half boom is people updating electronics and whiteware after the lockdown and some people buying more freezer capacity as a prudent measure to sure up their future food stock in the event of future lockdown(s), perfectly understandable and I've done this myself.

I reckon $70-80m net profit after tax is a reasonable enough guess, (and a guess is all it is) for second half profit. Mid point is $75m and add first half profit = $185m for FY21 which on 346.8m shares = 53.3 cps.
At $3.40 that puts them on a forward PE of just 6.4. Hmmm... TA looks compelling too.

winner69
02-03-2021, 10:51 AM
People seem more interested in debating the ESG issue, (impossible for me to overstate how incredibly bored I am with that extremely repetitive nonsense) than actually trying to have a go at this $64,000 question....go figure ?

I guess seeing as nobody else will opine on it I will have a best guess.
1. Currency tailwinds look likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.
2. I have always said the most reliable indicator of the near term future is the near term past and will stick to that core belief.
3. Almost certain that some of the current half boom is people updating electronics and whiteware after the lockdown and some people buying more freezer capacity as a prudent measure to sure up their future food stock in the event of future lockdown(s), perfectly understandable and I've done this myself.

I reckon $70-80m net profit after tax is a reasonable enough guess, (and a guess is all it is) for second half profit. Mid point is $75m and add first half profit = $185m for FY21 which on 346.8m shares = 53.3 cps.
At $3.40 that puts them on a forward PE of just 6.4. Hmmm... TA looks compelling too.


Don’t forget the cash mountains ...probably well over $200m now



.......after paying the $68m welfare back too

bull....
02-03-2021, 10:56 AM
cash pile easliy support a 10c dividend or more hopefully

Beagle
02-03-2021, 11:00 AM
Don’t forget the cash mountains ...probably well over $200m now
.......after paying the $68m welfare back too

Haven't forgotten about their strong cash position.
I'm a numbers man, (its my life's work) and also believe TA matters but I am more than happy to leave the endlessly repetitive ESG nonsense to "experts" like you :p

Rawz
03-03-2021, 11:45 AM
Good to see that WHS has been getting some attention from the ST legends of late as I am a recently new investor.

Bought in on the back of a text i got from a buddy of mine who is in lower management at their big depot out at Wiri.

He knows I like to put money into shares.. the text read along the lines of- ' you should put some money into Warehouse because every morning I sit in these planning meetings and volumes are always increasing, especially during lockdowns'.

Goodie.

ratkin
04-03-2021, 04:53 PM
Very nice dividend today, can’t beat a decent dividend paying stock. Always makes me want to buy more

Habits
05-03-2021, 12:39 PM
Very nice dividend today, can’t beat a decent dividend paying stock. Always makes me want to buy more

I did just that yesterday and today, cheaper now than immediately following the earnings upgrade from >90 to >110m. Am expecting a very good dividend following covid repayment...

Beagle
05-03-2021, 04:40 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/124269021/start-the-new-business-year-off-strong-at-warehouse-stationery

Good marketing and a timely reminder.

Habits
12-03-2021, 11:58 AM
Half year announcement coming in 2 weeks on 25th :t_up:

Beagle
16-03-2021, 04:05 PM
The chart is looking very attractive with a great up trending price and a nice bounce off the 30 day MA line. I am expecting good things when they announce their profit next week and am hopeful of solid guidance for FY21. Has this one turned a corner ?

bull....
16-03-2021, 04:25 PM
chart is indeed looking very good. $4 is my target so looking forward to the results to confirm my thinking

winner69
16-03-2021, 07:35 PM
I like the 5 year chart ....the recent rise is awesomely steep .....so much so it shouts out and says look the share price is going up big time

Beagle
16-03-2021, 09:23 PM
123801238012379 Oh my goodness Winner, I see what you mean !!

$7 here we come !!

Habits
16-03-2021, 09:46 PM
123801238012379 Oh my goodness Winner, I see what you mean !!

$7 here we come !!

Back to the future was $7 in 2007... that was lower than previous ATH. Am expecting huge result on 25th, better than Briscoes

Beagle
17-03-2021, 10:10 AM
Apart from the chart its clear they have been working hard on their transformation program with 19 board meetings in 2020, first time i have ever seen a board meet that often !
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364095

So the forecast is at least $110m after tax for this half, lets suppose its a bit more seeing as they seem confident enough to say "at least", say $115 and say they do $85m in the second half that's a whopping $200m after tax for FY21 and on 346.8m shares that's ~ 58 cps. Put an average sector PE of 14 on that and we could see ~ $8 in due course.

I am really warming up to this turnaround story.

bull....
17-03-2021, 11:47 AM
i have in my calc's 120m this half and only a tad smaller second half as i dont see retail slowing down this year. div's on that senario would be at least 20cps full yr or around a grossed up 7% on todays prices . very juicy

Entrep
17-03-2021, 12:08 PM
Looking good

https://i.imgur.com/2i5K930.png

Entrep
17-03-2021, 12:08 PM
Looking good

https://i.imgur.com/2i5K930.png

winner69
17-03-2021, 04:38 PM
Apart from the chart its clear they have been working hard on their transformation program with 19 board meetings in 2020, first time i have ever seen a board meet that often !
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364095

So the forecast is at least $110m after tax for this half, lets suppose its a bit more seeing as they seem confident enough to say "at least", say $115 and say they do $85m in the second half that's a whopping $200m after tax for FY21 and on 346.8m shares that's ~ 58 cps. Put an average sector PE of 14 on that and we could see ~ $8 in due course.

I am really warming up to this turnaround story.

OMG - profit of $200m this year

Truly remarkable

They've never ever broken $100m before and you talking $200m -you not on some funny stuff are you?

Highest profit since 2006 has been $97m and that was way way back in 2007 (may have beaten that last century but my numbers don't go back that far)

What a turnaround - or is just transformational

Beagle
17-03-2021, 05:44 PM
OMG - profit of $200m this year

Truly remarkable

They've never ever broken $100m before and you talking $200m -you not on some funny stuff are you?

Highest profit since 2006 has been $97m and that was way way back in 2007 (may have beaten that last century but my numbers don't go back that far)

What a turnaround - or is just transformational

I forgot to factor in stronger tailwinds with currency in the second half and less overhead this half with hundreds of staff made redundant in the previous half. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/warehouse-job-cuts-33-northland-staff-made-redundant-union-may-challenge-decision/ZYCABDH2XZGGIPUBEAJOUVWFSE/

bull....
18-03-2021, 04:50 PM
the hundreds of staff made redundant likely saves 25m to 30 mil each year i reckon. probably be more savings over time if the roll out of stationary as lease expires happen into red barns proves a successful model. that save on lease costs as well in time. 200m npat might become the norm with all these savings

Beagle
19-03-2021, 07:36 PM
the hundreds of staff made redundant likely saves 25m to 30 mil each year i reckon. probably be more savings over time if the roll out of stationary as lease expires happen into red barns proves a successful model. that save on lease costs as well in time. 200m npat might become the norm with all these savings

Pretty sure Percy said a while back they have quite a number of red shed leases coming up for renegotiation in the next couple of years. This new "agile" program they're on probably means some store rationalization too.

Beagle
19-03-2021, 07:38 PM
the hundreds of staff made redundant likely saves 25m to 30 mil each year i reckon. probably be more savings over time if the roll out of stationary as lease expires happen into red barns proves a successful model. that save on lease costs as well in time. 200m npat might become the norm with all these savings

Pretty sure Percy said a while back they have quite a number of red shed leases coming up for renegotiation in the next couple of years. This new "agile" program they're on probably means some store rationalization too.

ratkin
19-03-2021, 08:15 PM
Pretty sure Percy said a while back they have quite a number of red shed leases coming up for renegotiation in the next couple of years. This new "agile" program they're on probably means some store rationalization too.


In this environment not many landlords would want to lose their red shed, should be able to negotiate strongly

winner69
22-03-2021, 11:59 AM
Share price marching towards 4 bucks

Sooner than later I reckon

winner69
22-03-2021, 12:01 PM
Worst annual decline in GDP ever they said the other day and country probably in recession and will take a few years to get back to pre-Covid levels

Just as well Warehouse is seen as recession proof

Beagle
22-03-2021, 01:55 PM
Doubled down on these last week. The way they are converting sales increases to the bottom line makes them a really compelling proposition and a lot of what they sell are consumer staples.

winner69
22-03-2021, 03:01 PM
Suppose the management consultants have deserved every cent of the $20m plus 'success fees' they are going to get (restructure stuff)

At least all transformational / restructure / redundancy costs don't show up 'Adjusted Profit' - they've done well in sticking to the Adjusted Profit basis of reporting and no body has really noticed the $100m or so of not normal costs over the years)

Looking forward to $200m plus Adjusted Profit this year

Habits
22-03-2021, 03:55 PM
Sold the remaining one third OCA and bought WHS... I recommend that to others also. Right now WHS looks better than good

Habits
22-03-2021, 04:22 PM
Sold the remaining one third OCA and bought WHS... I recommend that to others also. Right now WHS looks better than good

winner69
22-03-2021, 04:28 PM
Sold the remaining one third OCA and bought WHS... I recommend that to others also. Right now WHS looks better than good

Habits, I wouldn’t be surprised if some moving out of HLG and putting dosh in WHS

More compelling offer and WHS sure has the momentum at the moment.

ratkin
22-03-2021, 07:24 PM
What a difference a year makes, this time last year you were all slagging the warehouse off as a troublemaking dog. Now you all pumping it up like it the next walmart

Beagle
22-03-2021, 07:40 PM
Classic turnaround story and all the benefits of their new "agile" strategic approach are starting to bear fruit with a bountiful harvest in the years to come.
Resistance is futile...can't fight the new trend which is definitely your friend :)

Habits
22-03-2021, 07:45 PM
What a difference a year makes, this time last year you were all slagging the warehouse off as a troublemaking dog. Now you all pumping it up like it the next walmart

Different in more ways than one ... the company, as have others has gone from multi year lows to multi year highs in the space of one year. I bet nobody picked that. But those who hung on throughout that journey are deserved 'Winners'

ratkin
22-03-2021, 08:43 PM
Different in more ways than one ... the company, as have others has gone from multi year lows to multi year highs in the space of one year. I bet nobody picked that. But those who hung on throughout that journey are deserved 'Winners'

I am not talking about the share price.
The company were sharetrader big rogues. Firstly for saying they were going to be open during the first lockdown when they were not. Secondly for taking subsidy money, then laying off loads of staff. Thirdly for having awful management

Habits
22-03-2021, 11:21 PM
I am not talking about the share price.
The company were sharetrader big rogues. Firstly for saying they were going to be open during the first lockdown when they were not. Secondly for taking subsidy money, then laying off loads of staff. Thirdly for having awful management

Yes i know all that and get it which is why i said those shd who have been there the whole year and hung in deserve recognition as winners. To me its about what is coming up more than what is past, the past is the past we can't change that... but the future has not been written yet and that is exciting

bull....
23-03-2021, 07:39 AM
whs turnaround strategy started in 2017 , things look encouraging i reckon. the 700 odd staff who lost there jobs was part of the strategy of cost cutting to meet the stated aims they said in 2017 of demand driven outcomes in response to data outcomes and making the business more simple.

if they cut the number of stores over time lease reduction expenses will add significantly to the profitability of the company going forward and likely higher div's ... so time will tell on this one

I was in there the other day it was quite busy , heard some people talking sounded like they were saying these whs clothes are so cool , i used to shop at hlg but now whs clothes are way better and cooler. had to chunkle to myself that wow whs is way cooler now used to be the other way round lol.

bull....
23-03-2021, 07:41 AM
whs turnaround strategy started in 2017 , things look encouraging i reckon. the 700 odd staff who lost there jobs was part of the strategy of cost cutting to meet the stated aims they said in 2017 of demand driven outcomes in response to data outcomes and making the business more simple.

if they cut the number of stores over time lease reduction expenses will add significantly to the profitability of the company going forward and likely higher div's ... so time will tell on this one

I was in there the other day it was quite busy , heard some people talking sounded like they were saying these whs clothes are so cool , i used to shop at hlg but now whs clothes are way better and cooler. had to chunkle to myself that wow whs is way cooler now used to be the other way round lol.

winner69
23-03-2021, 08:38 AM
I am not talking about the share price.
The company were sharetrader big rogues. Firstly for saying they were going to be open during the first lockdown when they were not. Secondly for taking subsidy money, then laying off loads of staff. Thirdly for having awful management

My sentiment re management/culture hasn't changed but heck you have to turn a blind eye to all that when the market gets excited and enthusiastically bids the share price up

I reckon Grayston just got lucky this year ....how long will his luck hold ...only time will tell

Bit like being a Spurs fan in the EPL ....one year we will get lucky and actually win something again (and the year after go back to normality)

ratkin
25-03-2021, 03:44 AM
My sentiment re management/culture hasn't changed but heck you have to turn a blind eye to all that when the market gets excited and enthusiastically bids the share price up

I reckon Grayston just got lucky this year ....how long will his luck hold ...only time will tell

Bit like being a Spurs fan in the EPL ....one year we will get lucky and actually win something again (and the year after go back to normality)

Yes I am always wary when shareprices get too excited. As a holder it is great to see rising prices, but it does seem to cause some to get a bit carried away (Bull calling warehouse clothes cool)
Next few days should be interesting, obviously a good result expected.

bull....
25-03-2021, 04:04 AM
Yes I am always wary when shareprices get too excited. As a holder it is great to see rising prices, but it does seem to cause some to get a bit carried away (Bull calling warehouse clothes cool)
Next few days should be interesting, obviously a good result expected.

nothing wrong with warehouse undies , plenty of people like there clothes . one of there better categories for sales

ratkin
25-03-2021, 04:15 AM
nothing wrong with warehouse undies , plenty of people like there clothes . one of there better categories for sales

Will take a look, could do with some more cacks and socks.

bull....
25-03-2021, 05:43 AM
premier reported yesterday in aus , very strong numbers

they had this to say

Premier Investments statutory NPAT $188.2 million, up 88.9% on 1H20

 Premier Retail Global sales of $784.6 million, up 7.2% on 1H20o Global like for like sales up 18.2% on 1H20o Record Peter Alexander sales of $207.7 million, up $62.9 million or 43.4% on 1H20o Record online sales of $156.7 million, up $59.5 million or 61.3% on 1H20 andcontributed 20% of Global saleso Apparel Brands like for like sales up 18.5%

 Premier Retail Gross Margin up 286 bps Premier Retail EBIT of $237.8 million, up 88.5% with EBIT margin up 1,308 bps Premier’s investment in Breville at a market value of $1.0 billion as at 30 January 2021(Balance sheet value of $268.1 million)

 Interim dividend of 34 cps, in line with 1H20

 Strong trading momentum has continued into 2H21 with Global like for like sales up 32.1%and gross margin % up 379 bps for the first seven weeks

http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20210324/02356724.pdf?uid=41A01BD672AD38278EEC79DB69E291FD6 A4C0000A702B3B8289FE540093D250091850000&ppv=

So most retailers are reporting continuing strong sales still and even into the new reporting period and better margins as well. lets see if whs follows the trend today

bull....
25-03-2021, 08:42 AM
great result

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/369678/343022.pdf

gross margins very impressive

biggest div ever paid for this half i belief 13cps wow huge

well done turn around looks good

winner69
25-03-2021, 08:52 AM
great result

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/369678/343022.pdf

gross margins very impressive

biggest div ever paid for this half i belief 13cps wow huge

well done turn around looks good

Who would have thought the Red Sheds could make so much dosh -- must have put prices up

Margins way up and expenses under control --- HUGE profits ---- and probably sustainable

Onwards and upwards

winner69
25-03-2021, 08:54 AM
Joan says - Due to the continued uncertainty in the trading environment the Board does not consider it appropriate to provide guidance at this time. The Board will continue to assess this position ahead of year end.


Hey Beagle- you better do it for her :t_up:

bull....
25-03-2021, 08:59 AM
Joan says - Due to the continued uncertainty in the trading environment the Board does not consider it appropriate to provide guidance at this time. The Board will continue to assess this position ahead of year end.


Hey Beagle- you better do it for her :t_up:

they did say in there commentary that current trading is still very strong , matches what other retailers have been saying

Beagle
25-03-2021, 09:03 AM
WOW, what a stunning result !! Normalized profit before (repayment of Govt wage subsidies and restructuring costs, which will confer enduring benefits), of $111m and that includes 18.5 days of lockdowns in Auckland !

I think they're on track to do the ~ $200m net profit after tax normalized profit I have been talking about previously which is ~ 58 cents per share ( $200m / 346.8m shares).

Put a reasonable retail PE of 14 on that and we could see 58 x 14 = target price one year from now of $8 !

No reason they can't pay at least 17 cps final divvy as their balance sheet is in very good shape so that's foreseeable dividends of 30 cps annually fully imputed or 30 / 0.72 = 41.67 cps gross and on yesterday's closing price of $3.65 that's a gross forecast FY21 yield of 11.4% !

WOW - Opportunity knocks very loud and clearly !

ratkin
25-03-2021, 09:08 AM
Full steam ahead. It all coming together across their divisions. Good to see Torpedo 7 doing well. It iis one shop I actually use. Much better than Katmandu.

The rise in online backs up what I have been seeing on the ground, huge rise in overnight courier items from the division. Question is how much of this is a covid benefit. Many of the usual Alibaba buyers have switched local due to huge delays from overseas, will it last? The online division does have momentum which is half the battle, and like they say click and collect more appealing than waiting months for something a bit cheaper from chyna

bull....
25-03-2021, 09:13 AM
WOW, what a stunning result !! Normalized profit before (repayment of Govt wage subsidies and restructuring costs, which will confer enduring benefits), of $111m and that includes 18.5 days of lockdowns in Auckland !

I think they're on track to do the ~ $200m net profit after tax normalized profit I have been talking about previously which is ~ 58 cents per share ( $200m / 346.8m shares).

Put a reasonable retail PE of 14 on that and we could see 58 x 14 = target price one year from now of $8 !

No reason they can't pay at least 17 cps final divvy as their balance sheet is in very good shape so that's foreseeable dividends of 30 cps annually fully imputed or 30 / 0.72 = 41.67 cps gross and on yesterday's closing price of $3.65 that's a gross forecast FY21 yield of 11.4% !

WOW - Opportunity knocks very loud and clearly !

looks like div's will be more than 30cps

from there report

The Directors have undertaken a review of the Group dividend policy, including a review of our policy compared to market practice andother listed retailers, taking into account current and forecast Group operational cashflow, forecast capital expenditure and liquidityrequirements. As a result, the Directors approved a new dividend policy in March 2021.

The new policy is to distribute at least 70% of the Group's full year adjusted net profit, at the discretion of the Board andsubject to trading performance, market conditions and liquidity requirements.

so potentially 40cps of divs per year based on your 200m npat on my 220m npat forecast 44cps div per year so would be a 14 -15 % yield on current prices gross round about

winner69
25-03-2021, 09:15 AM
WOW, what a stunning result !! Normalized profit before (repayment of Govt wage subsidies and restructuring costs, which will confer enduring benefits), of $111m and that includes 18.5 days of lockdowns in Auckland !

I think they're on track to do the ~ $200m net profit after tax normalized profit I have been talking about previously which is ~ 58 cents per share ( $200m / 346.8m shares).

Put a reasonable retail PE of 14 on that and we could see 58 x 14 = target price one year from now of $8 !

No reason they can't pay at least 17 cps final divvy as their balance sheet is in very good shape so that's foreseeable dividends of 30 cps annually fully imputed or 30 / 0.72 = 41.67 cps gross and on yesterday's closing price of $3.65 that's a gross forecast FY21 yield of 11.4% !

WOW - Opportunity knocks very loud and clearly !

Truly WOW

Amazing that 'why bother' and 'once bitten twice shy' was only a few months ago eh

But momentum is everything and irrespective of fundamentals and TA and all that sort of stuff one must ride the wave until it peters out

Go WHS - keep that wave going - share price over 4 bucks today -- maybe a lot over

Glas Grayston got lucky - he's an amazing CEO - double his bonus I say

winner69
25-03-2021, 09:18 AM
Jeez bull says 30 cent divie ....Beagle says 40 cents ...natural progression says winner needs to say 50 cents

ratkin
25-03-2021, 09:23 AM
Jeez bull says 30 cent divie ....Beagle says 40 cents ...natural progress says winner needs to say 50 cents

Will raise you 60 at which point Beagle, Winner and Bull go , I'm out

Beagle
25-03-2021, 09:30 AM
WOW - I haven't had time to read the full presentation yet. Based on that new dividend policy of at least 70% of normalized profit if we stick with $200m but go with 75% that's 58 cps x 0.75 = 43.5 cps fully imputed = 43.5 / 0.72 = 60.42 cps gross which on the closing price yesterday of $3.65 gives a whopping 60.42 / $3.65 = 16.6% forecast FY21 gross yield

If they can do $220m then the gross divvy becomes as much as 66.5 cps with a 75% payout ratio and the gross forecast FY21 yield becomes 18.2% ! Oh my Goodness and all this from a company selling mostly consumer staples !!!

winner69
25-03-2021, 09:34 AM
Jeez 111m in a half year ......and heading to 200m plus for full year

Previous full year record profit was 97m was way back in 2007

Last 10 years best full year was 80m

And beagles 5 year time frame average has been 70m

Remarkable turn around

winner69
25-03-2021, 09:38 AM
Beagle ... your abacus gone wonky

Potential yield 18.2%?

ratkin
25-03-2021, 09:42 AM
Beagle ... your abacus gone wonky

Potential yield 18.2%?

Why stop there? If you going to ramp do a proper job

1000% gains

Multibagger

Musk sells out of bitcoin buys warehouse shares

bull....
25-03-2021, 09:44 AM
Why stop there?

1000% gains

Multibagger

Bezos sells out of bitcoin buys warehouse shares

send the word to musk .... one tweet from him will send the stock to beagles $8 today

ratkin
25-03-2021, 09:46 AM
send the word to musk .... one tweet from him will send the stock to beagles $8 today

Serious question, how much of this is already built into the recent rise?

bull....
25-03-2021, 09:50 AM
Serious question, how much of this is already built into the recent rise?

be some but not all i reckon , results are probably better than people thought and who would have thought a 13c div? valuation will be based on the sustainability going forward. with easter and mothers day coming up next report should be good

ratkin
25-03-2021, 09:52 AM
be some but not all i reckon , results are probably better than people thought and who would have thought a 13c div? valuation will be based on the sustainability going forward. with easter and mothers day coming up next report should be good

Will certainly massacre the corresponding period last year when they had to throw all their easter eggs away, as a certain woman would not let them open,

Beagle
25-03-2021, 09:54 AM
Beagle ... your abacus gone wonky

Potential yield 18.2%?

If they can do $220m that's $220m / 346.8m shares = 63.4 cps. New dividend policy is at least 70% or normalised net profit after tax. Suppose its 75% so that's annual fully imputed dividends of as much as 63.4 cps x 0.75 = 47.55 cps. 47.55 cps annual dividends fully imputed = 47.55 / 0.72 = ~ 66 cps gross. On yesterday's closing price of $3.65 that's a gross forecast yield of as much as 18.1%.

Beagle's abacus is inextricably tied to his nose for a big feed so its very rare it's off track.

Dotbond
25-03-2021, 10:06 AM
Question. Will these increased sales continue for the next year once borders open and people spend money on flights to Aussie again?

Beagle
25-03-2021, 10:12 AM
Question. Will these increased sales continue for the next year once borders open and people spend money on flights to Aussie again?

Tourism when its does start flowing, will flow both ways. I think this is a classic turnaround story and WHS are finally getting on top of some long standing issues. Their advertising extoling the virtues of sustainability is very on point and their repayment of the wage subsidy (although something I disagree with) nicely offset from an ESG perspective the extra efficiencies they have driven with their mass redundancies last half. All things considered its a "good look" as far as consumers are concerned.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/369678/343023.pdf

I bought even more on the open after already doubling my holding last week. My rating is BUY and BBB (Beagle busy buying) :cool:

ratkin
25-03-2021, 10:23 AM
Tourism when its does start flowing, will flow both ways. I think this is a classic turnaround story and WHS are finally getting on top of some long standing issues. Their advertising extoling the virtues of sustainability is very on point and their repayment of the wage subsidy (although something I disagree with) nicely offset from an ESG perspective the extra efficiencies they have driven with their mass redundancies last half. All things considered its a "good look" as far as consumers are concerned.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/369678/343023.pdf
I bought even more on the open after already doubling my holding last week. My rating is BUY and BBB (Beagle busy buying) :cool:

Warehouse now my second biggest holding behind EBOS, looking forward to that dividend

bull....
25-03-2021, 10:30 AM
its not uncommon for whs to have very sharp moves higher eg 2000 and 2006 were both 200 - 300 % moves higher over 5-6 mths

Entrep
25-03-2021, 11:06 AM
Concerned about how much of this is COVID factor and sustainable next year

100101
25-03-2021, 11:19 AM
Beware if you joined up with "The Market" to buy something and forgot that they will charge you $5.99 a month forever until you cancel.

LaserEyeKiwi
25-03-2021, 11:25 AM
impressive result - increased my holdings today.

Beagle
25-03-2021, 11:34 AM
Concerned about how much of this is COVID factor and sustainable next year

Ultra low interest rates and it will be quite a LONG time before there is complete freedom of travel. I believe retail will remain robust for the foreseeable future. 6-700 less people on the payroll going forward, that's HUGE !

bull....
25-03-2021, 11:39 AM
see theres some u - sellers on the depth. must be trying to cap the share price to accumulate

ratkin
25-03-2021, 11:42 AM
see theres some u - sellers on the depth. must be trying to cap the share price to accumulate

Saw that on the depth, what does the U mean?

alokdhir
25-03-2021, 11:43 AM
Saw that on the depth, what does the U mean?

It means undisclosed qty ...but more then $ 100,000 value

Hoop
25-03-2021, 11:59 AM
A piece of outdated Trivia but still amazing...WHS is currently a long term Bull Cycle stock (very hard not to notice that)..However not so noticeable was the fact it was still a long term Bear cycle stock after a 3 months rapid rally until January 2021 ..the amazing part, the WHS was in this long term Bear Cycle (lower highs lower lows) for 14 years!!!!!

Habits
25-03-2021, 12:04 PM
It means undisclosed qty ...but more then $ 100,000 value

That puts a solid lid on any further share price rallies in the short term

Disc, my largest holding

bull....
25-03-2021, 12:08 PM
That puts a solid lid on any further share price rallies in the short term

Disc, my largest holding

not necessarily , i reckon its just someone trying to scare people to sell so they can accumulate. old trick

Entrep
25-03-2021, 12:10 PM
We have 2 ticks from the Council of Bs, where's Balance with his view?

LaserEyeKiwi
25-03-2021, 12:20 PM
So why isn't WHS part of the NZX50 index?

winner69
25-03-2021, 12:31 PM
So why isn't WHS part of the NZX50 index?


Probably because 77% of shares are held by insiders and not part of the ‘float’

Only 75 million shares freely tradeable

LaserEyeKiwi
25-03-2021, 01:09 PM
Probably because 77% of shares are held by insiders and not part of the ‘float’

Only 75 million shares freely tradeable

Ah, thanks for that.

winner69
25-03-2021, 01:48 PM
Share price hit 386 before drifting back a bit

Might be another boost as day comes to end

And then tomorrow over 4 bucks as ‘mums and dads’ read the days news and go wow and out their orders in.

alokdhir
25-03-2021, 01:50 PM
Share price hit 386 before drifting back a bit

Might be another boost as day comes to end

And then tomorrow over 4 bucks as ‘mums and dads’ read the days news and go wow and out their orders in.

Looks like u have loads of them ...lol :p

winner69
25-03-2021, 01:50 PM
Just noticed they got 183m of cash ...and that’s after paying the 65m wage subsidy pack and spending about 40m of capex (investment in the future)

That’s a lot of dosh in the bank

alokdhir
25-03-2021, 01:56 PM
Just noticed they got 183m of cash ...and that’s after paying the 65m wage subsidy pack and spending about 40m of capex (investment in the future)

That’s a lot of dosh in the bank


Warehouse Group's balance sheet ready for acquisitions, says CEO Nick Grayston

alokdhir
25-03-2021, 01:57 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-groups-balance-sheet-ready-for-acquisitions-says-ceo-nick-grayston/FHWXGUHLC5ZQYOIVJWZCRF6GKE/

Habits
25-03-2021, 01:58 PM
Probably because 77% of shares are held by insiders and not part of the ‘float’

Only 75 million shares freely tradeable

I notice companies not in the index have higher yields as a result of lower SP. Maybe WHS management should make it a goal to unlock more shares if at all possible held by Tindall as a smaller holding would still retain the same value through a higher SP. With current yields institutions would be keen to buy up and rightly so

alokdhir
25-03-2021, 01:59 PM
The way they positioning themselves and getting lots of media attention and coming out with flash results etc ...SP booming .

Its very possible some private placement of promoters or some equity offer in the pipeline

Any thoughts ??

bull....
25-03-2021, 02:07 PM
Warehouse Group's balance sheet ready for acquisitions, says CEO Nick Grayston


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-groups-balance-sheet-ready-for-acquisitions-says-ceo-nick-grayston/FHWXGUHLC5ZQYOIVJWZCRF6GKE/


The Warehouse reports record first-half profit; resumes dividends

It looks a very good result,” said Grant Williamson, an investment adviser at Hamilton Hindin Greene

While the company had benefited from some “buoyancy” in the market, chief executive Nick Grayston said improvements in the way it operated would continue to boost profitability in the future.
“We believe that our performance is sustainable,” he said.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124613645/the-warehouse-reports-record-firsthalf-profit-resumes-dividends

winner69
25-03-2021, 02:14 PM
I see Foodstuffs still hold 6% of the company.

Beagle
25-03-2021, 02:32 PM
Opinion - Cindy's bully boy tactics publicly admonishing WHS meant ostensibly WHS were under enormous political pressure to pay back the wage subsidy, especially in the context that they had no choice but to streamline the company and make 600 or more staff redundant. Repayment cost shareholders 19.49 cents per share

We could have had a half year dividend of 31 cents per share not 13 cps :crying: (if only the directors had the gonads to ignore the leftist rants of the school yard bullies).

Oh well, there's always next year "Grayston said the bumper first-half result was more to do with "everything the group had done" as opposed to the benefit of increased demand as a result of circumstances. He said he expected financial gains for the group and shareholders to continue from here on out: "We believe the benefits are structural."...and reported elsewhere

While the company had benefited from some “buoyancy” in the market, chief executive Nick Grayston said improvements in the way it operated would continue to boost profitability in the future. “We believe that our performance is sustainable,” he said.

What I am hearing there is this suggests the current adjusted result of $111m has every chance of being repeated or exceeded going forward !!

RTM
25-03-2021, 02:55 PM
We could have had a half year dividend of 31 cents per share not 13 cps :crying: (if only the directors had the gonads to ignore the leftist rants of the school yard bullies).


Ok....I’ll take the bait.
Jeeze Beagle, you still banging on about this. I’d have been real happy (not) if my taxes had contributed to a higher dividend for WHS shareholders. I think the excellent result earned off the back of NZ Taxpayers demonstrates why they didn’t need the subsidy. Anyway...I know we disagree on this. Good luck holders, well done.

Beagle
25-03-2021, 03:01 PM
I for one find it really bizarre that really well off retiree's earning a really good income are still happy with a straight face to receive a benefit from the Govt every week at a cost to the Govt of billions of dollars every single year on an ongoing basis but then go on to admonish any form of corporate support whatsoever no matter how badly it was needed at the time. Its absolutely bizarre. Those who live in glasshouses should not throw stones.

Hard on the heals of Cindy's blatant tax grab from investors pockets with the non deducibility of interest its a bitter pill to swallow to think the dividend could have been more than double what it is if it weren't for the ESG leftist nonsense. Maybe its time to bring back the national super surtax so these fat cats don't get any richer off ordinary Kiwi's backs ?

ratkin
25-03-2021, 03:12 PM
Would like to see the company have another crack at the supermarket game. Lidl/aldi style Leave the tins etc on their pallets, and sell it cheap. Cuts out the need for shelf stackers etc. They never really went past chocolate and toiletries so far.

Habits
25-03-2021, 03:26 PM
I for one find it really bizarre that really well off retiree's earning a really good income are still happy with a straight face to receive a benefit from the Govt every week at a cost to the Govt of billions of dollars every single year on an ongoing basis but then go on to admonish any form of corporate support whatsoever no matter how badly it was needed at the time. Its absolutely bizarre. Those who live in glasshouses should not throw stones.

Hard on the heals of Cindy's blatant tax grab from investors pockets with the non deducibility of interest its a bitter pill to swallow to think the dividend could have been more than double what it is if it weren't for the ESG leftist nonsense. Maybe its time to bring back the national super surtax so these fat cats don't get any richer off ordinary Kiwi's backs ?

OT but I doubt there are that many being really well off and earning good incomes... Those who are, have probably paid millions in tax over the years so its nice for them to be rewarded with a pension. I am still angry at winston over-claiming and then spending millions on legal fees to justify it. Probably thats a reason why he isnt back in wgtn.

beetills
25-03-2021, 03:59 PM
Would like to see the company have another crack at the supermarket game. Lidl/aldi style Leave the tins etc on their pallets, and sell it cheap. Cuts out the need for shelf stackers etc. They never really went past chocolate and toiletries so far.
Don't FoodStuffs or Countdown own a good part of the WHS.Pretty sure they both did at 1 stage but 1 got out.

winner69
25-03-2021, 04:01 PM
Don't FoodStuffs or Countdown own a good part of the WHS.Pretty sure they both did at 1 stage but 1 got out.

Foodstuffs still own 6% ....holding for a reason?

jimdog31
25-03-2021, 04:33 PM
My two cents on a major factor why WHS has had such a strong half (other than the obvious COVID surge) is down to Kmart (in NZ) looks to have completely underestimated the demand post lockdown , their shelves have been empty, and product lines completely disappeared . this is based on frontline observations only as I haven't been able to dive into how Kmart has performed in NZ.

Past period comparatives for WHS have suffered from Kmart beating them up as they grew market share in NZ.

Can anyone please tell me what the $15.8 million dollar loss under "other" is on page 24 of the results presentation? Given thats equivalent to 10% of the H1 operating profit its seems a material number without a clear explanation (that I can see).

Beagle
25-03-2021, 04:50 PM
$183.6m in cash and no debt ! My goodness that's 53 cps and no debt and probably about the same very strong cash per share position as one well known other retailer about to announce tomorrow. Both companies probably going to earn similar eps numbers this year as well. Hmmm

winner69
25-03-2021, 05:19 PM
Can anyone please tell me what the $15.8 million dollar loss under "other" is on page 24 of the results presentation? Given thats equivalent to 10% of the H1 operating profit its seems a material number without a clear explanation (that I can see).




From the slide -
Other Group operations include a property company, a chocolate factory and the residual cost of unallocated support office functions

Didn't know they own chocolate factory did you?

Bulk of the $15m I'd hazard a guess is the unallocated support office functions

Beagle
25-03-2021, 07:46 PM
Quite surprised it didn't go up and and stay above $4 today. Have now had time to thoroughly digest the full presentation and I see significant further streamlining ahead with store within a store rationalizations for many Warehouse Stationary branches and some overall rationalization of the WHS store footprint. Balance sheet is VERY strong and Noel Leeming is pure Gold !!. Do the old "back the cash out of the balance sheet trick" and the forward PE looks profoundly compelling even allowing for some degree of one off Covid boost in the period just reported.

Trades cum a fully imputed 13 cent divvy due very soon too so back that out as a quasi return of fresh capital invested and the metrics look even more profoundly compelling. TA also gives significant encouragement. BUY

Panda-NZ-
25-03-2021, 08:00 PM
Didn't know they own chocolate factory did you?


Waikato valley, they make most of their easter eggs they have on display since early march (v.colourful and inexpensive). Better value than cadbury.

The healthy choice is the dark chocolate stuff but keep it out of the way of pets and especially Beagles :)

ratkin
25-03-2021, 08:12 PM
Didn't know they own chocolate factory did you?


They do not own the factory, they just have an exclusivity agreement of some sort. Although maybe they should own it. Would seem pretty shrewd to make their own chocolates, cut out the middle man

https://www.waikatovalleychocolates.co.nz/about/

Beagle
25-03-2021, 08:29 PM
Waikato valley, they make most of their easter eggs they have on display since early march (v.colourful and inexpensive). Better value than cadbury.

The healthy choice is the dark chocolate stuff but keep it out of the way of pets and especially Beagles :)

A good buddy told me today that Countdown have king sized chocolate bars on special this week for the staggeringly good price of just $2.00 each :eek2:
Surely an offer that tempting and bad for you must be referred to the SPCA ;)

nztx
26-03-2021, 04:10 AM
Foodstuffs still own 6% ....holding for a reason?

It's interesting that James Pascoe Ltd (The Normans) - come in at No 3 @ 19.80%

If not mistaken - this is the Long Established Jewellers - who have Whitcoulls & Farmers Trading also owned by their group ..

Share Register looks like it could be getting a bit tighter held -- with Tindall & Foundation interests roughly totalling 50.41%

Foodstuff's chances of advancing beyond 6.0 % may therefore be vastly expensive & problematic - given that their members
may ultimately wind up up pro-rata financing any further attempts more forays into WHS..

It'd difficult to see either Tindall, Foundation or Pascoe interests wanting to sell down to make way for for Foodstuffs .. ;)


A good result sees the remaining loose part of 24% shares or so & SP being shot upwards as all awake to the better fortunes .. ;)

Call it an HLG or BGP tightening Register scenario all over again - as happy campers prevail with fewer & fewer sellers .. ;)

winner69
26-03-2021, 08:21 AM
Nztx ...Foodstuffs paid about $5 for their shares

Remember the excitment when they applied to Comm Comm for permission to take over WHS

Habits
26-03-2021, 08:44 AM
Nztx ...Foodstuffs paid about $5 for their shares

Remember the excitment when they applied to Comm Comm for permission to take over WHS

I remember it even though I was not a sharemarket investor so it must have been quite big. Warehouse Extra was in competition doing groceries

LaserEyeKiwi
26-03-2021, 10:13 AM
Quite surprised it didn't go up and and stay above $4 today. Have now had time to thoroughly digest the full presentation and I see significant further streamlining ahead with store within a store rationalizations for many Warehouse Stationary branches and some overall rationalization of the WHS store footprint. Balance sheet is VERY strong and Noel Leeming is pure Gold !!. Do the old "back the cash out of the balance sheet trick" and the forward PE looks profoundly compelling even allowing for some degree of one off Covid boost in the period just reported.

Trades cum a fully imputed 13 cent divvy due very soon too so back that out as a quasi return of fresh capital invested and the metrics look even more profoundly compelling. TA also gives significant encouragement. BUY

I for one am also shocked it didn't appreciate more yesterday, but thankful though as it allowed me to build a large position at what I view as still a very cheap price.

Very interested in what others think might be an area for acquisition/expansion. Food retailer? Furniture?

Entrep
26-03-2021, 11:18 AM
Craigs view


Where to from here?: For 1H21, WHS delivered a whopping 140% lift in adj NPAT, but in line with expectations after it provided three earnings upgrades since December with sales and margins continuing to outstrip expectations. This not only allowed WHS to resume dividends, it also paid back the NZ wage subsidy and still had net cash of $184m. WHS has benefitted from (1) strong demand as international travel budgets have been redirected into domestic retail, (2) supply chain disruptions lowering the need to discount and (3) cost out and efficiency gains. However, while this may continue while borders remain shut, there is likely to be some reversion to more normalised levels of demand at some stage. We forecast a decline in FY22 adj NPAT, but still to a level some 45% above FY20 and this decline may push out to FY23 if the current environment persists through next Christmas. On our forecasts WHS trades on an FY21 PE of 7x, but an FY22 PE of 11x and FY19 PE of 18x. Trading in line with our revised TP, retain Neutral.

Adj NPAT of $111m, up c140% yoy: Group sales were up 7%, gross profit up 16% and operating profit up 125%. Noel Leeming continues to perform well with sales up 16% and EBIT up 54%. Red sheds EBIT was up $63m, or 105% on sales up only 3%. Torpedo7 benefitted from the increase in outdoor pursuits, delivering an EBIT profit finally of $5.2m. TheMarket.com, generated an EBIT loss of $9.2m. WHS declared a 1H dividend of 13cps to go with February's 5cps special.

Outlook and earnings changes: Sales for the first 7 weeks of 2H21 are relatively flat year on year but WHS is cycling a pcp which saw increased COVID-19 uncertainly and an unseasonal lift in sales. Compared to the first 7 weeks of the 2H19, sales are up 9.7%. Following today's result we have lifted our forecasts for the Red sheds, Stationery and Torpedo7, partially offset by lower forecasts for Noel Leeming. We have also reduced our depreciation forecasts following store divestments. We have lifted our FY21/22/23 adj NPAT forecasts by 7%/8%/6%.

Valuation and Risk: Our revised DCF-derived (terminal WACC 8.9%, TGR 1.5%) TP is $ 3.70 (from $3.35), reflecting updated forecasts. Risks: COVID, change in the NZDUSD and consumer confidence

sb9
26-03-2021, 01:39 PM
Market reaction y'day and today suggests that a lot of is already baked into the numbers. Perhaps not much upside from here as per Craig's note.

Habits
26-03-2021, 02:26 PM
Market reaction y'day and today suggests that a lot of is already baked into the numbers. Perhaps not much upside from here as per Craig's note.

Seems like m and a activity planned or in the pipeline amongst retailers... bgp, whs and premier who are targetting torpedo 7 i believe. Maybe others also. This says to me that trading conditions are good and on-going... high confidence levels

LaserEyeKiwi
26-03-2021, 03:10 PM
Craigs view

LOL at thinking 11x FY22 earnings is "fair value".

They smoke some good stuff over there at the Craigs office.

Getty
26-03-2021, 03:17 PM
METHinks you are right.

bull....
26-03-2021, 03:22 PM
craig's view is pretty conservative still. probably because of whs track record , but maybe this time is different

jimdog31
26-03-2021, 03:28 PM
Seems like m and a activity planned or in the pipeline amongst retailers... bgp, whs and premier who are targetting torpedo 7 i believe. Maybe others also. This says to me that trading conditions are good and on-going... high confidence levels

Premier targeting torpedo7 wouldnt really fit with the rest of their stable would it? clothing is only a segment of torpedo7?

Beagle
26-03-2021, 03:54 PM
craig's view is pretty conservative still. probably because of whs track record , but maybe this time is different

Craigs currently 135th out of 360 in the annual share competition. Not too bad and above half way but importantly they have lost money YTD with their 5 key selections.
I'm happy to back my own analysis and do believe this is a genuine turnaround situation.

Habits
26-03-2021, 04:18 PM
SP down 13 cents today as of 20 mins ago erasing yesterdays gain... still its up over 30 percent YTD but not one of the top ten stock pickers had it in their line-up. I hazard a guess whs did not feature in their personal portfolios much either

nztx
26-03-2021, 05:45 PM
SP down 13 cents today as of 20 mins ago erasing yesterdays gain... still its up over 30 percent YTD but not one of the top ten stock pickers had it in their line-up. I hazard a guess whs did not feature in their personal portfolios much either

Possibly something in Govt's RE Announcement giving the Market a slight does of the Sh*ts .. IMO .. ;)

bull....
26-03-2021, 05:55 PM
SP down 13 cents today as of 20 mins ago erasing yesterdays gain... still its up over 30 percent YTD but not one of the top ten stock pickers had it in their line-up. I hazard a guess whs did not feature in their personal portfolios much either

the price is just filling the gap as t/a people would say , still in a bullish uptrend and craigs upgraded there price target which in the broker dept is usually bullish

Beagle
26-03-2021, 11:13 PM
I had a look on market screener this evening and the analysts certainly like it but it would appear there are some major upgrades to come through with their updated numbers
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/
I think we will see broker upgrades early next week.

ratkin
27-03-2021, 04:59 PM
The thing with the Craigs forecasts is they assume the group just keeps plodding on. Takes no account of likely new initiatives to improve profits, and increase synergy between the various divisions. They have a very good stable of retail offerings, and potential for the sum to be greater than the individual parts. We are already seeing this with the market etc.

Just need management to step up and make some good decisions, as there huge potential there, just needs unlocking

Beagle
27-03-2021, 09:15 PM
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/financials/ Average broker forecast for the whole of FY21 is $104m and they have just posted a normalized $111m for the first half. I think its clear the analysts will have some major upgrades to their numbers as the balance of this financial year plays out (and they already rate it OUTPERFORM). https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/

Panda-NZ-
27-03-2021, 09:37 PM
Harvey norman at record high $6 on ASX.

Noel leeming is the golden goose for this stock.

bull....
29-03-2021, 10:56 AM
the price is just filling the gap as t/a people would say , still in a bullish uptrend and craigs upgraded there price target which in the broker dept is usually bullish

price closed the gap on friday , very bullish price action today so far to see it bounce of the gap support. hopefully on and upwards to our first mentioned awhile ago target of 4

Sideshow Bob
29-03-2021, 11:23 AM
Harvey norman at record high $6 on ASX.

Noel leeming is the golden goose for this stock.

ATH in December 2007 - approx $6.76. Not back there yet.....

ratkin
29-03-2021, 01:36 PM
Off to the Warehouse to buy some easter eggs, it better be packed full of happy looking customers.

winner69
29-03-2021, 02:06 PM
ATH in December 2007 - approx $6.76. Not back there yet.....

Hit $7.90 in 2002

Way things are going could get there again :)

LaserEyeKiwi
29-03-2021, 03:14 PM
FYI - just watching post-cabinet press conference, and it sounds like large minimum wage increases in future years are not likely. the language being used is that raising to $20 an hour was a promised achieved and future rises may be more likely to be smaller and linked to indexation.

Positive for a company like WHS which has majority of retail workforce at or near minimum wage level.

winner69
29-03-2021, 03:28 PM
FYI - just watching post-cabinet press conference, and it sounds like large minimum wage increases in future years are not likely. the language being used is that raising to $20 an hour was a promised achieved and future rises may be more likely to be smaller and linked to indexation.

Positive for a company like WHS which has majority of retail workforce at or near minimum wage level.

I thought WHS a fan of the Living Wage - Not that different

Annual report said median hourly rate of team members was $21.15

Really shocking that Nick's rate is over 33 times that

Probably even more after this years big bonus he will be getting

winner69
29-03-2021, 03:34 PM
FYI - just watching post-cabinet press conference, .

Jeez mate, you like punishing yourself or something

Did Tova ask any decent questions -- or ws it left to Jessica to ask the questions the PM wanted to be asked

Jay
29-03-2021, 03:34 PM
Hey more informed people than me!
Does Foodstuffs or the other crowd, can't think of their name as I write this, that hold about 5% or so from when WHS was looking to become a "supermarket" still got that share?
I'm sure one of them sold - at a loss I think.
Could a bit of resistance coming up or pressure on the sp if they decide to sell and cut their losses or for a profit in the nearish term

winner69
29-03-2021, 03:56 PM
Hey more informed people than me!
Does Foodstuffs or the other crowd, can't think of their name as I write this, that hold about 5% or so from when WHS was looking to become a "supermarket" still got that share?
I'm sure one of them sold - at a loss I think.
Could a bit of resistance coming up or pressure on the sp if they decide to sell and cut their losses or for a profit in the nearish term

Go back a few posts

Foodstuffs /:Cash Wholesalers (who are Foodstuffs) still have 6% of company

They bought at $5 or more

Had more once but sold down.

Progressive got out ...cost them $100m ...pascoes bought most of their shares

bull....
29-03-2021, 04:38 PM
be my guess pascoes might be interested in takeover of the warehouse one day

Jay
29-03-2021, 04:42 PM
Thanks winner, I must have missed those posts
Wonder what pascoes intend to do or is it a nice income earner - done nothing so far I think
Perhaps they will combine with Famers and it will be known as the Farmhouse:)

ratkin
29-03-2021, 06:22 PM
Thanks winner, I must have missed those posts
Wonder what pascoes intend to do or is it a nice income earner - done nothing so far I think
Perhaps they will combine with Famers and it will be known as the Farmhouse:)



https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/66913234/woolworths-cops-110m--loss-as-it-sells-out-of-the-warehouse

This nicely gives the history

bull....
30-03-2021, 09:51 AM
this is huge , a director buying shares on market at 3.77. i dont recall the last time this happened ... must be a long time ago

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/369891

winner69
30-03-2021, 09:58 AM
this is huge , a director buying shares on market at 3.77. i dont recall the last time this happened ... must be a long time ago

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/369891


Even humongous cause she been a director for 5 years and this seems to be first time she’s held any


Problem is she is no longer truly independent ...has a vested interest eh.

Sideshow Bob
30-03-2021, 11:07 AM
Even humongous cause she been a director for 5 years and this seems to be first time she’s held any


Problem is she is no longer truly independent ...has a vested interest eh.

Spent a bit of half the $95,000 in directors fees received last year.

bull....
01-04-2021, 09:52 AM
last day today to get whs shares for the div due to easter

Beagle
01-04-2021, 10:41 AM
Stopped at Te Kuiti for a bite to eat on my recent road trip to New Plymouth. Hadn't been there for ~ 20 years as the road now bypasses the town.
Overriding impression was how poor and old the town felt apart from the massive modern Warehouse that completely dominated the main street.

Bell Block just a few kilometers north of New Plymouth also has a massive store that seems to completely dominate the area and the store in central New Plymouth was very modern and the staff very helpful with last minute necessities.

The sense I get from that little trip is the Warehouse has a very dominant market position in regional N.Z. and will do very well in the future selling consumer basics at very reasonable prices.
I am not worried about the move to the minimum wage of $20 per hour today as staff numbers have been materially reduced with self checkout now being a feature of all the stores I have visited.

I might back the truck up a bit more on WHS.

Habits
01-04-2021, 11:48 AM
last day today to get whs shares for the div due to easter

Yes but the sp will/should reduce for those who buy ex dividend... whats the rush

winner69
01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
Yes but the sp will/should reduce for those who buy ex dividend... whats the rush

Not always

bull....
01-04-2021, 12:19 PM
Yes but the sp will/should reduce for those who buy ex dividend... whats the rush

tax paid divs are always nice

winner69
01-04-2021, 12:20 PM
Not always

....and now I've said that the shareprice will fall be more than 13 cents come next Tuesday

bull....
01-04-2021, 12:35 PM
....and now I've said that the shareprice will fall be more than 13 cents come next Tuesday

only to keep rising into the even bigger div later this year

Beagle
01-04-2021, 12:50 PM
I've seen more than enough studies evidencing the relatively quick share price recovery of shares going ex dividend to convince me that in the vast majority of cases (taking a view of several weeks), one is better buying cum dividend than ex dividend. It doesn't always work, but far more often than not in my opinion. I think bull has hit the nail squarely on the head with his comment directly above.

Habits
01-04-2021, 01:43 PM
I've seen more than enough studies evidencing the relatively quick share price recovery of shares going ex dividend to convince me that in the vast majority of cases (taking a view of several weeks), one is better buying cum dividend than ex dividend. It doesn't always work, but far more often than not in my opinion. I think bull has hit the nail squarely on the head with his comment directly above.

Free dosh for anyone with an empty plate or even better a empty sack

bull....
01-04-2021, 02:45 PM
I've seen more than enough studies evidencing the relatively quick share price recovery of shares going ex dividend to convince me that in the vast majority of cases (taking a view of several weeks), one is better buying cum dividend than ex dividend. It doesn't always work, but far more often than not in my opinion. I think bull has hit the nail squarely on the head with his comment directly above.

and even more true in a bull market

Entrep
01-04-2021, 05:36 PM
Strong day, $4 imminent

ratkin
01-04-2021, 06:06 PM
Strong day, $4 imminent

Patience grasshopper, will drop on Tuesday, it will get there one day, but not for a while. Unless of course there is some unexpected good news

Habits
01-04-2021, 10:52 PM
Minimum wage increase and benefit increase kicks in today. My pick is that a large portion of the extra money will go straight into spending hand to mouth, although I hope I am wrong. Retailers such as WHS will do very well from this imo.

bull....
02-04-2021, 06:12 AM
Minimum wage increase and benefit increase kicks in today. My pick is that a large portion of the extra money will go straight into spending hand to mouth, although I hope I am wrong. Retailers such as WHS will do very well from this imo.

too true what you say.
totally support the minimum wage going up. in fact they should get rid of the term minimum wage and instead call it the living wage and forth with increase it to this level.

Beagle
02-04-2021, 12:58 PM
I had better stay away from tomorrow's big Warehouse Easter egg sale. Chocolate is not good for fat dog's. Have to come up with healthy alternative ways to spend the big forthcoming dividend and the big HLG dividend too. Bit of a shame these companies don't run a dividend reinvestment program, might have to run my own dividend reinvestment program, now there's a good idea !!

ratkin
02-04-2021, 01:40 PM
I had better stay away from tomorrow's big Warehouse Easter egg sale. Chocolate is not good for fat dog's. Have to come up with healthy alternative ways to spend the big forthcoming dividend and the big HLG dividend too. Bit of a shame these companies don't run a dividend reinvestment program, might have to run my own dividend reinvestment program, now there's a good idea !!


Been rolling in dividends this week, Genesis, Mercury, Contact etc. The Genesis one in particular, ridiculously high payout, can't beat a good divi payer

Beagle
02-04-2021, 01:50 PM
Been rolling in dividends this week, Genesis, Mercury, Contact etc. The Genesis one in particular, ridiculously high payout, can't beat a good divi payer

Yes its a nice problem to have. I got ARG, Turners and GNE's dividends this week. No idea what to do with them and then gargantuan ones from WHS and HLG coming this month. I know if I spent it all on Easter eggs I'd have diabetes in no time at all lol
First world problems eh ;)

macduffy
02-04-2021, 02:38 PM
Yes its a nice problem to have. I got ARG, Turners and GNE's dividends this week. No idea what to do with them and then gargantuan ones from WHS and HLG coming this month. I know if I spent it all on Easter eggs I'd have diabetes in no time at all lol
First world problems eh ;)

Time for some generous donations to worthy causes, perhaps?

Beagle
02-04-2021, 02:48 PM
Time for some generous donations to worthy causes, perhaps?

Yes, absolutely !!

Habits
02-04-2021, 04:03 PM
Yes, absolutely !!

Excellent... and a good way to solve tax problems :):t_up:

Habits
06-04-2021, 10:10 AM
I just checked the latest market price... 3.79 SP down 7 cps on 75k turnover. Sellers at 3.78 so will probably see a bit more downside. Ex 13 cent divie

bull....
06-04-2021, 11:20 AM
I just checked the latest market price... 3.79 SP down 7 cps on 75k turnover. Sellers at 3.78 so will probably see a bit more downside. Ex 13 cent divie

at this early stage of the day it looks bullish when you dont get a rush for the exit after ex - div. maybe people are more long term holders in this one?

Entrep
08-04-2021, 03:19 PM
there's the dump

alokdhir
08-04-2021, 03:31 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sugar-rush-retail-spend-coming-to-an-end-kiwibank/TZOZ3D2LGY7PIDN6FXLBT2YQSE/

winner69
08-04-2021, 03:53 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sugar-rush-retail-spend-coming-to-an-end-kiwibank/TZOZ3D2LGY7PIDN6FXLBT2YQSE/

Jeez sales down 9% in March quarter

Kiwibank's Household Spending Tracker report for the March 2021 quarter showed domestic spend declined 9 per cent in the March quarter, the first decline since the first lockdown ended.

LaserEyeKiwi
08-04-2021, 03:58 PM
Jeez sales down 9% in March quarter

Kiwibank's Household Spending Tracker report for the March 2021 quarter showed domestic spend declined 9 per cent in the March quarter, the first decline since the first lockdown ended.

is that year over year or quarter over quarter? because it would be normal for March quarter to be quite a bit below December quarter.

winner69
08-04-2021, 04:07 PM
is that year over year or quarter over quarter? because it would be normal for March quarter to be quite a bit below December quarter.

You’ll have to ask Mary Jo

LaserEyeKiwi
08-04-2021, 04:12 PM
You’ll have to ask Mary Jo

lol - spending for march quarter is up 41.8% year on year. but sure lets frame this as a bad thing says Kiwibank.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/109864/kiwibank-economists-say-according-banks-own-transaction-data-spending

alokdhir
08-04-2021, 04:17 PM
Jeez sales down 9% in March quarter

Kiwibank's Household Spending Tracker report for the March 2021 quarter showed domestic spend declined 9 per cent in the March quarter, the first decline since the first lockdown ended.

As all these retail stocks most time are one result wonders only ....so I am very vary of these and their dividend yield theme ...Divvies dont make up for the big capital loss risk they pose ...also very illiquid so not easy to get out too especially when theme turns sour ...

LaserEyeKiwi
08-04-2021, 04:18 PM
As all these retail stocks most time are one result wonders only ....so I am very vary of these and their dividend yield theme ...Divvies dont make up for the big capital loss risk they pose ...also very illiquid so not easy to get out too especially when theme turns sour ...

According to Kiwibank retail card spending annual growth in March quarter was up 41.8% - not much danger to worry about yet.

Habits
08-04-2021, 04:41 PM
According to Kiwibank retail card spending annual growth in March quarter was up 41.8% - not much danger to worry about yet.

Massive... thanks for sharing it

winner69
08-04-2021, 04:46 PM
Mary Jo in her blog did mention a grain of salt when discussing the numbers

Thanks alokdhir for posting anyway ..report was pretty meaningless

Habits
08-04-2021, 04:51 PM
lol - spending for march quarter is up 41.8% year on year. but sure lets frame this as a bad thing says Kiwibank.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/109864/kiwibank-economists-say-according-banks-own-transaction-data-spending

KB economist "there appears to be a limit to the number of pools we can fit in the backyard, or how many times we need to repaint the house."

Me and most my friends bought bulk paint and building materials just prior to lockdown. We had a few days warning before level 4 so we hit the shops before 27 march last year. The resene shop was packed and the queue was out the door. At mitre 10 I witnessed others loading up trailers etc with you name it. I am surprised the yoy drop is only 9 percent because the first 2 and half months of 2020 were already busy.

Edit: i might have confused which periods they are referring to. The report is ambiguous imo

LaserEyeKiwi
08-04-2021, 05:03 PM
KB economist "there appears to be a limit to the number of pools we can fit in the backyard, or how many times we need to repaint the house."

Me and most my friends bought bulk paint and building materials just prior to lockdown. We had a few days warning before level 4 so we hit the shops before 27 march last year. The resene shop was packed and the queue was out the door. At mitre 10 I witnessed others loading up trailers etc with you name it. I am surprised the yoy drop is only 9 percent because the first 2 and half months of 2020 were already busy.

Edit: i might have confused which periods they are referring to. The report is ambiguous imo

Here it is on the Kiwibank website - very clearly shows the huge year on year increases still

https://inner.kiwi/commentary/snap-lockdown-snaps-spending-streak/

winner69
08-04-2021, 05:11 PM
Kiwibank transactional data - wonder how representative that is in the big picture anyway

Ferg
08-04-2021, 08:48 PM
I had a quick glance at that report. It is terribly written. It seems the March quarter is being compared to the December quarter, not that it says that. I would have thought such a drop was an annual event..? To then pour cold water on the annual growth of 41% because there has been a "structural shift away from cash" - does the author think EFTPOS cards were invented in the past 12 months? The report is absolute rubbish. The only thing to take with a grain of salt is the authors credibility.

Getty
08-04-2021, 08:52 PM
Well they are SVR's bankers after all.

nztx
08-04-2021, 10:10 PM
Well they are SVR's bankers after all.


Hmm well .. the rubber cheques have be left outside the door now then - don't they ? ;)

is that good or bad ? :)

bull....
09-04-2021, 07:20 AM
yep i would take the kiwibank report with a grain of salt. retail sales up 41% yoy is huge even if it falls a little its not going to fall 41% this year and you would expect a little pull back. margins retail stocks are making are unlikely to fall though thats probably more important.

winner69
09-04-2021, 08:14 AM
yep i would take the kiwibank report with a grain of salt. retail sales up 41% yoy is huge even if it falls a little its not going to fall 41% this year and you would expect a little pull back. margins retail stocks are making are unlikely to fall though thats probably more important.

Mary Jo who wrote that report said take it with a grain of salt.

Stats NZ Card spend data next Tuesday will give a better idea of what’s gone on

Entrep
09-04-2021, 09:40 AM
Perhaps part of the reasoning too? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/price-of-everything-set-to-increase-retailers-ready-to-pass-on-rising-costs/AGBVITKICUGHWP63DZ44BQI75Q/

Sideshow Bob
09-04-2021, 09:43 AM
Perhaps part of the reasoning too? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/price-of-everything-set-to-increase-retailers-ready-to-pass-on-rising-costs/AGBVITKICUGHWP63DZ44BQI75Q/

Can only pass on price increases if they have product in stock.....

But in terms of WHS, currency has moved favourably in the last 12 months. Also think they already pay the living wage, so already were over $20/hr.

Although the "living wage" will also no doubt increase.

winner69
13-04-2021, 05:16 PM
I think we agreed the other day that Mary Jo's Kiwibank report the othr day was rubbish.

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend data out today - covers all card spend in NZ (bit more robust than just Kiwibank transactional data I think)

Below a summary

Things are 'slowing' a bit they say - if you prefer the seasonally adjusted numbers

bull....
14-04-2021, 01:19 PM
I think we agreed the other day that Mary Jo's Kiwibank report the othr day was rubbish.

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend data out today - covers all card spend in NZ (bit more robust than just Kiwibank transactional data I think)

Below a summary

Things are 'slowing' a bit they say - if you prefer the seasonally adjusted numbers

looks like appliance sales etc still went up ... so all good

bull....
16-04-2021, 06:09 AM
expanding further on the retail sales

Changes in the actual value of electronic card transactions for the March 2021 month (compared with March 2020)
Durables sub-industry movements:

furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing, up $105 million (17 percent)
department stores, up $54 million (20 percent)
recreational goods, up $21 million (16 percent)
pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing, up $9.9 million (2.9 percent).


https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/electronic-card-transactions-march-2021

So look like the commentaries from the jbhi fi , harvey norman , warehouse etc all similar about sales etc still good into this year is continuing with another good month in march. still in line with my thinking that these types of stocks will still report very healthy results in the second halve this year and big increased dividends in line with the increased profits.

Ferg
16-04-2021, 12:30 PM
Part (all, or more?) of the annual increase will be due to the last week of March 2020 being in lockdown. The pharmaceutical anomaly might have been people stocking up pre-lockdown which masked the impact.

winner69
16-04-2021, 07:19 PM
More redundancies ...and prob getting rid of those stupid jewellery departments

More profit for shareholders

Good stuff

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124867811/the-warehouse-staff-called-to-meetings-amid-redundancy-rumours

Rawz
16-04-2021, 08:09 PM
More redundancies ...and prob getting rid of those stupid jewellery departments

More profit for shareholders

Good stuff

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124867811/the-warehouse-staff-called-to-meetings-amid-redundancy-rumours

Sad for the workers eh. Sign of the times thou. Less employees, more technology, more automation. Blame amazon.. or progress.

Sales booming yet we need less employees.. And this is what consumers demand- lower prices. Actually this is why in the long term I am a deflationist. The same product or service can be sold for less and less cost.

The last time I went to the warehouse I picked out the product I wanted, purchased it at the self checkout and walked out without needing anyone's help. Don't recall seeing many employees actually- how many are left to make redundant?

(NB. As a shareholder I am happy)

winner69
16-04-2021, 08:28 PM
Sad for the workers eh. Sign of the times thou. Less employees, more technology, more automation. Blame amazon.. or progress.

Sales booming yet we need less employees.. And this is what consumers demand- lower prices. Actually this is why in the long term I am a deflationist. The same product or service can be sold for less and less cost.

The last time I went to the warehouse I picked out the product I wanted, purchased it at the self checkout and walked out without needing anyone's help. Don't recall seeing many employees actually- how many are left to make redundant?

(NB. As a shareholder I am happy)

Good on you for paying .....I'm told the game is to scan everything but dont proceed past the pay option....just pretend to swipe your card

Zaphod
16-04-2021, 08:48 PM
Good on you for paying .....I'm told the game is to scan everything but dont proceed past the pay option....just pretend to swipe your card

Every time I've been in the Warehouse staff members have been watching the green lights at the top of self-checkouts. There are most likely cameras also trained on individuals using the machines which could easily be triggered should items leave the checkout without payment being processed.

bull....
17-04-2021, 07:15 AM
More redundancies ...and prob getting rid of those stupid jewellery departments

More profit for shareholders

Good stuff

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124867811/the-warehouse-staff-called-to-meetings-amid-redundancy-rumours

good move i reckon probably not a big profit generator and was mainly costume jewellery too wasnt it. so like you say more profit , less inventories , less staff = big win for the bottom line

Habits
17-04-2021, 08:15 AM
More redundancies ...and prob getting rid of those stupid jewellery departments

More profit for shareholders

Good stuff

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124867811/the-warehouse-staff-called-to-meetings-amid-redundancy-rumours

I know that the company is still employing new staff for replacements in other areas. This is just about the jewellery side winding down i think and could possibly reduce MHJs competition and good for them

LaserEyeKiwi
21-04-2021, 12:37 PM
I know that the company is still employing new staff for replacements in other areas. This is just about the jewellery side winding down i think and could possibly reduce MHJs competition and good for them

Didn't they say they were open to acquisitions? I wonder if this is a signal that they maybe looking at acquiring an established jewellery chain.

winner69
21-04-2021, 12:44 PM
Didn't they say they were open to acquisitions? I wonder if this is a signal that they maybe looking at acquiring an established jewellery chain.

The Norman’s could help them out

But James Pascoe Group sales are more than the WHS sales

LaserEyeKiwi
21-04-2021, 12:56 PM
The Norman’s could help them out

But James Pascoe Group sales are more than the WHS sales

They could acquire a smallish chain and then use its experience to build out a bigger national presence, maybe someone like Walker & Hall or Silver Moon.

Alternatively, Michael Hill market cap is currently $340 million...

bull....
21-04-2021, 01:55 PM
The Warehouse has confirmed it is proposing to close its jewellery counters but isn’t saying how many jobs are on the line

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124889914/the-warehouse-proposes-closure-of-jewellery-counters

Rawz
21-04-2021, 02:01 PM
When did they say they were looking for acquisitions? Wasn't it Rod Duke (Briscoes) that were on the hunt for something else? Or are both retailers looking?

Either way don't think MHJ would be on their radar. The Hills family own ~50% of the company and I imagine they wouldn't part with the company they built until M. Hill is in jewelry heaven.

LaserEyeKiwi
21-04-2021, 02:31 PM
When did they say they were looking for acquisitions? Wasn't it Rod Duke (Briscoes) that were on the hunt for something else? Or are both retailers looking?

Either way don't think MHJ would be on their radar. The Hills family own ~50% of the company and I imagine they wouldn't part with the company they built until M. Hill is in jewelry heaven.

said after earnings: Warehouse Group's balance sheet ready for acquisitions, says CEO Nick Grayston

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-groups-balance-sheet-ready-for-acquisitions-says-ceo-nick-grayston/FHWXGUHLC5ZQYOIVJWZCRF6GKE/

Rawz
21-04-2021, 02:49 PM
said after earnings: Warehouse Group's balance sheet ready for acquisitions, says CEO Nick Grayston

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-groups-balance-sheet-ready-for-acquisitions-says-ceo-nick-grayston/FHWXGUHLC5ZQYOIVJWZCRF6GKE/



Thank L.E.K. I missed that. Was too busy looking at the glorious margin + sales growth ;)

I guess if they can do another Noel Leeming purchase, which has turned over very successful, we are in for a treat.

BIRMANBOY
21-04-2021, 09:37 PM
With the Normans having a sizeable chunk of WHS shares this could be one of the more probable options. With the Normans well into retirement age, that would be a way out of their business holdings and upgrading the current WHS jewellery kiosks with a more upmarket, but still affordable transplanted Pascoes footprint. They have been playing a long game and will have done well out of their holdings as well as their WHS position.
The Norman’s could help them out

But James Pascoe Group sales are more than the WHS sales

bull....
22-04-2021, 06:26 AM
why not just merge the 2 groups into a giant retailer. then warehouse can have book section , jewelery section , clothing section. all those synergies ahhh

bull....
26-04-2021, 08:43 AM
The Warehouse Group has increased public access to electric vehicle rapid charging with the expansion and upgrade of its charging station infrastructure

https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/news-updates/warehouse-group-rolls-out-national-ev-charging-station-expansion

kiora
26-04-2021, 10:37 AM
The Warehouse Group has increased public access to electric vehicle rapid charging with the expansion and upgrade of its charging station infrastructure

https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/news-updates/warehouse-group-rolls-out-national-ev-charging-station-expansion


Really doesn't gel though as I can't imagine Warehouse clients driving EV?
All good though because paid for by EECA?
"The rapid charger network expansion was enabled by a $265,000 grant from the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) as one of the 21 projects approved by the EECA Board for funding in 2020.

ratkin
26-04-2021, 06:58 PM
Really doesn't gel though as I can't imagine Warehouse clients driving EV?
All good though because paid for by EECA?
"The rapid charger network expansion was enabled by a $265,000 grant from the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) as one of the 21 projects approved by the EECA Board for funding in 2020.

Will be very useful in the more regional warehouses. For example the one in Greymouth, nip in with the EV, charge up, go shopping and continue trip along the coast

iceman
26-04-2021, 08:48 PM
Will be very useful in the more regional warehouses. For example the one in Greymouth, nip in with the EV, charge up, go shopping and continue trip along the coast

Disappointed Nelson is not on their list :-(

ratkin
27-04-2021, 03:57 AM
Disappointed Nelson is not on their list :-(

charging stations will be everywhere soon, but it is a good sign to see the company taking these type of initiatives, shows they are back on their game.

bull....
27-04-2021, 10:04 AM
Really doesn't gel though as I can't imagine Warehouse clients driving EV?
All good though because paid for by EECA?
"The rapid charger network expansion was enabled by a $265,000 grant from the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) as one of the 21 projects approved by the EECA Board for funding in 2020.

plenty rich people shop warehouse for stuff. how do you think they got rich lol

winner69
28-04-2021, 11:14 AM
JB Hifi Q3 sales up 16%

That's pretty good ....bodes well for Noel Lemming sales

bull....
29-04-2021, 07:35 AM
The Warehouse Group to offer staff free period products in work bathrooms

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/124971348/the-warehouse-group-to-offer-staff-free-period-products-in-work-bathrooms

X-men
29-04-2021, 07:40 AM
Wow bull..this is a great news!

ratkin
29-04-2021, 11:04 AM
The Warehouse Group to offer staff free period products in work bathrooms



That should stop the bleeding, maybe ATM should do the same

Gonzo
29-04-2021, 12:16 PM
LOL there are some clowns out there

X-men
29-04-2021, 04:21 PM
Quarter update next week....so pretty exciting as kiwis continue to spend their holiday money as they could not travel overseas

Dlownz
01-05-2021, 09:38 AM
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/05/amazon-s-profit-triples-thanks-to-covid-19.html
Just adding this in here.
The Market owned by the warehouse group is a great site with growing numbers and good word of mouth. They offer a subscription service of 5.99 a month and that will get free shipping on all orders.
I expect this site to keep performing well and growing as more take up buying online and finding this site.

X-men
01-05-2021, 12:48 PM
Bought many things from themarket.co.nz.

Really good site...

winner69
01-05-2021, 01:00 PM
Bought many things from themarket.co.nz.

Really good site...

I ordered (and paid for) one of these nanoblock beagles ...Christmas present.

Never turned up ....after many enquiries apparently never sent ...got a refund

One bad experience enough for me

ratkin
01-05-2021, 04:30 PM
Just emptied my letterbox after the no circ sticker fell off last week.

Circulars from the Warehouse, warehouse stationary and Noel Leemings
Time they stopped with all the paper circs and did something better for the environment

Cottagestyles
01-05-2021, 08:40 PM
Holy moly ratkin, the pamphlet boys 'n girls in your neighbourhood are absolute SHARKS! Just waiting for an opportunity to pounce on the unsuspecting, hahaha 😆

Dlownz
01-05-2021, 08:59 PM
That's not a good start. I've brought a few things now and they worked out cheaper than in store. Brought a Google nest WiFi system 3 pack for $540 when a two pack would be that price.

X-men
01-05-2021, 09:34 PM
If u ordered adult toys...then u probably did order on the wrong website winner....

bull....
02-05-2021, 06:21 AM
If u ordered adult toys...then u probably did order on the wrong website winner....

hahah a blow up beagle? anyway back to the boxing

winner69
02-05-2021, 08:26 AM
hahah a blow up beagle? anyway back to the boxing

Go Dereck - you're the man

winner69
02-05-2021, 12:22 PM
Go Dereck - you're the man

Dereck was robbed

bull....
04-05-2021, 08:51 AM
whs presentation and anaylst/institution call

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/371579/345273.pdf


i dont really remember them ever engaging analysts , institutions before so this is a good move to spread there revival. i see to big points they are selling

bring more insto,s onto the register and nz50 inclusion

winner69
04-05-2021, 08:52 AM
whs presentation and anaylst/institution call

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/371579/345273.pdf


i dont really remember them ever engaging analysts , institutions before so this is a good move to spread there revival

Good cool .....instos will want to get on to a winner

LaserEyeKiwi
04-05-2021, 08:57 AM
Agreed. Also good to get institutions onside before any new large acquisition is announced.

JohnnyTheHorse
04-05-2021, 09:05 AM
Interesting to see they are targeting NZX50 inclusion. Only something like 20% of the shares are eligible for the market cap calculation so there is still a ways to go. Really need Tindall, Foodstuffs or Pascoes to sell down a portion to increase free float.

Disc: one of my largest holdings in long term portfolio.

LaserEyeKiwi
04-05-2021, 09:08 AM
pretty annoying there is no livestream access to "investor day" for retail shareholders.

Getty
04-05-2021, 09:16 AM
I ordered (and paid for) one of these nanoblock beagles ...Christmas present.

Never turned up ....after many enquiries apparently never sent ...got a refund

One bad experience enough for me

You didnt put Speedy Az on the delivery instructions...