WHS - Warehouse Group

THE KING says just to put yer both in the picture thos same reading Glasses as seen in Ware sell in AUS for AU$2.99.. [^][^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

YOUR MAJESTY, I thought harods would be your shopping place. Nice to see you mingle with the peasants on the shop floor. macdunk

THE KING says Well yer WRONG make beleive SCOT.. [^][^][^]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says just to put yer both in the picture thos same reading Glasses as seen in Ware sell in AUS for AU$2.99.. [^][^][^]


... but there is only one lens ... for one-eyed aussies

[duncan macgregor]

WINNER 69, Sorry you are wrong its the one eyed poms that buy those they call them monarckles.
Sorry your majesty no pun intended. macdunk

THE KING says if the worst happened and Ware hit the WALL what would NZ`ers have to talk about ,, bet it wont be CRICKET.. [^][^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

Your majesty, we will always have the under arm bowling incident to keep us amused. He had to be an HORSTRILIAN not the british thing to do. YOUR LOYAL SUBJECT MACDUNK

[winner69]

Better end of town (Pumpkin Patch, Hallensteins, Michael Hill etc) appear to be doing OK but the cheap end of town (BGR and Postie Plus) struggling.

What about WHS then

Macdunk says estimate what the next result will be and position yourself accordingly. So here goes .... what I think the 1st half WHS profit announcement (in Feb) will look like

Red Sheds profit for the 2nd half of their 2004 year were down on the previous year. The announcements since have not been good ... price deflation and higher expenses etc ... so expect continued reduced profits (compared to the same period last year) from the Red Sheds for the 1st half of their year. Those Red Sheds are a real problem at the moment.

Stationary is a problem child ... margins shot and volatile sales ... at best profit about the same as last year

Australia - sales not fantastic but reduced losses

So overall, at best, profitability for the 1st half of the year about the same as last year .. ironically because of reduced losses in Australia offsetting reduced profits out of the Red Sheds. Who would have thought that Australia would make the situation look better. But then we should not be surprised if there just happens to be some large abnormals like stock writeoffs.

In view of WHS management 'being comfortable' with latest estimates of $80M profit this year this sort of result would not be a good result.

So Macdunks methodology would be to stay out of WHS until the next profit announcement and review any investment intentions then.

[k1w1]

No, no, no, w69 you forgot to ask the tea lady.

Can anyone post a link to Phaedrus last WHS chart showing where the upward trendline is that needs to be crossed.

[Phaedrus]

K1w1,

Upward trendline? WHS is in a [u]downtrend</u>.

There is a tentative short-term downward trendline in place, and a confirmed long-term downward trendline is also in place.

I am happy to post the chart again, if you like.

[k1w1]

Doh !! Thanks Phaedrus if you could post it again that would be appreciated.

[Phaedrus]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/WHS5001.gif

[k1w1]

Phaedrus, by the end of December if WHS closes above 3.70 has it broken the unconfirmed trendline ?

[Phaedrus]

Yes. $3.73 by my reckoning, but let's not quibble! You would have to be a very keen buyer to act on such flimsy evidence, though. Personally, I wouldn't dream of buying at that point. I would want to wait for an uptrend at the very least. (WHS is still making lower lows). There is also the possibility of Resistance to be overcome at around $4.00. I would much prefer to use the more conservative long-term trendline. A break of this would be a much safer option, though of course you are bound to pay a little more. Use of this trendline has kept me and others away from this dog for well over a year, so far. For the life of me, I cannot understand the level of interest in this stock when there are so many better options available, even on the local market.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/WHS5001.gif


Looks like both the shortterm and long term downtrend in place

Did spike up to 378 one day .... traders remorse is the term I think

THE KING says WHS is KIWI with all the advertisments which run solid all day so they want to be part of it, NO worry what the company DOING.. [^][^][^]

[evedder]

When is the next offical annoncement for WHS on sales/profit etc?

[madmike]

quote:Originally posted by evedder

When is the next offical annoncement for WHS on sales/profit etc?


analysts are predicting good sales...whs hasn't (so far) come back (continuous dislosure) and told them otherwise (ie the analysts are in the ballpark) so i would predict a movement up in shareprice soon...no i dont believe the good sales has yet been built into shareprice

[Sky Tower]

I have not seen confirmation of good sales figures over the Christmas / New Year period so far..

[duncan macgregor]

Who wants to be part of it. Almost Every thing we buy in retail is made overseas, and sold on special. I do notice some of the timber products are cheaper to buy than we can buy the material in nz, never mind the labour or sale margin. They are all cutting each others throats with continual sales. The whole retail industry is not worth investing in at the moment. It is cheaper to throw a blunt saw away, and buy a new one rather than sharpen it. Free trade with china will kill retail in nz, even worse than what is going on now. Produce from the farm sector is the only winner.
macdunk

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Who wants to be part of it. Almost Every thing we buy in retail is made overseas, and sold on special. I do notice some of the timber products are cheaper to buy than we can buy the material in nz, never mind the labour or sale margin. They are all cutting each others throats with continual sales. The whole retail industry is not worth investing in at the moment. It is cheaper to throw a blunt saw away, and buy a new one rather than sharpen it. Free trade with china will kill retail in nz, even worse than what is going on now. Produce from the farm sector is the only winner.
macdunk



surely cheap imports from china should be a boost for retailers.
It's the manufacturers who are hurting.

Mick

[dingdong]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


surely cheap imports from china should be a boost for retailers.
It's the manufacturers who are hurting.

Mick


No, cheap imports from China are a boost for the consumer.
Mass manufacturing has long since moved from NZ to China. So what's new?
Stick to hoarding those gold bars, o Mick of the Mouses. Better a 1% annual return on gold than -15% on retail.

[duncan macgregor]

It is a no win all round situation, discounts, continual sales. Cut throat margins the only winner is the shopper who demands more of the same. The competition is in killer mode my money wont be in this sector. macdunk

THE KING says Well dun mac what is your BUY stock.. [^][^]

[croesus]

6c down... is this the beginning of the next slide ???

[bermuda]

All the signs point to retailers having a very hard 2005.Get your money out and into growth stocks.

[OldRider]

ASX notice this morning from MRL,declining sales,declining profits,suspension of dividend.
Intense competition given some blame,will WHS Australian operation be similar?.

[duncan macgregor]

KING, YOUR MAJESTY it is a wise man that never gives or accepts advice but listens and then makes his mind up. Retail is rat poop end of story. Sectors to be in, power companies always good if times get bad, i am with TPW. Farm service companies especially if the dollar drops, i am with PGG. Companies that have done nothing due for a trend soon HQP safe as houses making heaps, with money in the bank to expand. Then we have NOG with a bit of thrill, and drill. The hype machine is in full bore with this stock, awaits announcements at the end of jan. Look for the sectors that have prospects and dump whatever is not trending up. MACDUNK

THE KING says RIGHT Mr MacD for the NON ADVICE..[^][^][^]

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says RIGHT Mr MacD for the NON ADVICE..[^][^][^]


you ask
MacDunk answers
you put down

down with the king, you arrogant [^][^][^]

THE KING says and your JOB Paper Tiger keeper of NZ morals..[^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

PAPER TIGER, you miss read his majesties post. he only thanked me for not giving him advice.
Who can blame him. MACDUNK

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by OldRider

ASX notice this morning from MRL,declining sales,declining profits,suspension of dividend.
Intense competition given some blame,will WHS Australian operation be similar?.


That Millers announcement is a shocker ... and i would have thought that they would have coped betetr than the Yellow Sheds.

Not even the interim canned but the full year dividend as well. The WHS wouldn't do that ... would they?

And writing down the value of their discount business is indicative that these business's are not as valuable as they were - (Announcement)As a result of continued underperformance in the Discount Variety retail business the Board has resolved to reduce the carrying value of the intangible assets relating to the Discount Variety goodwill and brand name assets by $29.6 million.


Maybe those on this site who said a few months ago that WHS should writeoff the not insignificant goodwill they are still carrying for the Aussie assets might be on to something

Roll on the WHS announcement next month

THE KING says RIGHT Mr MacD,, and PT dont let that Share Comp GO to your HEAD.. [^][^][^]

[winner69]

With that Millers sad story some really supportive WHS lovers would say that Milers woes are because thay have been really stuffed by WHS ....YEAH

I say general market conditions and all are suffering the same woeful story

[Snow Leopard]

The Paper Tiger says [:I].
I apologise to his majesty unreservedly. [^][^][^]

THE KING says some MERGER`s would be in order for 2005 but who will cave in FIRST.. [^][^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

KING, the warehouse and BGR are sold to the gullible shareholder, who cares what happens. If a person is dopey enough to hold on, and average down,then good luck, [here is laughin at ya baby]. They are killing each other with sales price wars etc retail i repeat is rat poop. best of luck my friends macdunk.

THE KING says Mr MacD it is never THE KING move to average down but will aveage UP so in this case have not bought too many BGR.. [^][^]

[duncan macgregor]

KING, your majesty if you hold any BGR you are sitting on a loss. I wont allow myself to do that. I pick myself up and move on to come back another day if it proves its self first.macdunk

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says some MERGER`s would be in order for 2005 but who will cave in FIRST.. [^][^][^]


I can see WHS shareholders recoiling in horror to the announcment WAREHOUSE PAYS $250M FOR AILING MILLERS BUSINESS

But as you say KING something has to give in Australia

But then WHS has enough problems in stopping the Red Sheds profit declining ... leave Aust to Ian to sort out

Winner it actually might be the logical answer to the australian problem, and might help the Red Sheds to as they used to be a big supplier. I don't know for sure if they still are.

[Benlamnz]

Does WHS has the balance sheet for a acqusition like that at present? and if not, guess how much they can get from a rights issue? Sub $3.00 very likely.

[Halebop]

I think they could easily make a buy of that quantum without resorting to a rights or share issue. However, it would be imprudent to maintain dividends under that scenario until Australia was paying its way. Might make them a little gun shy of such a move - particularly with the taste of their last Australian acquisition still so fresh in their mouths.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

I think they could easily make a buy of that quantum without resorting to a rights or share issue. However, it would be imprudent to maintain dividends under that scenario until Australia was paying its way. Might make them a little gun shy of such a move - particularly with the taste of their last Australian acquisition still so fresh in their mouths.


WHS could borrow $250M and debt to debt+equity ratio would still be only 60% odd.

One inhibiting factor could be WHS huge capex investment program - at present very little free cash flow .... you could say that currently they increase borrowings to pay the dividend

Millers are profitable ... even though their discount stores are probably running at a loss.

What doesn't fit with WHS is Millers varied protfolio of brands (must be a dozen or more) and the size of the stores.

Millers discount stores (all 365 of them) have average sales of less than $2M. The 126 WHS stores average $4.5M sales and strategic intent seems to be increase this figure.

Millers not a good fit with WHS ... but WHS could be a good extension to the Millers business ... but WHS too proud and stubborn to admit defeat and divest themselves of the Aust problem

[donner]

So a possible strategy could be to buy Millers sell off the bits that don't fit, shut down the stores going toe to toe with WHS and keep the profitable ones with a rebrand?

How would that be Winner?

[duncan macgregor]

Why worry about what they should do, plenty of good companies out there making profits to think about. They got themselves in a mess with stupidity, and you think they have the brains to get themselves out. The only shareholders left are the fall in love types, the rest of us only play withh winners or try to. macdunk

[winner69]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Discounting-a-costly-tactic-for-retailers/2005/01/16/1105810770967.html

We all know it will take years for sensibility to return but then we are not the experts

At least the Millers man in the article is blaming The Warehouse .. for what?

Not taking sales of them but stuffing their margins

Sure bet that the yellow things are hurting as well?

[duncan macgregor]

winner69, Good article explains what those companies should have known at the start. Discount your way into bankrupsy. The warehouse might get away with this stupidity in NZ to increase market share, but in australia where the big boys live not a chance.
People in nz are now awake to the fact only to buy large items at a sale at cut throat prices. The profit margins are now to low for me to even consider investing in retail. macdunk

[winner69]

Good stuff eh macdunk ... but then we are not the experts ...only realists

See Postie Plus actually used the LOSS word this morning .... yep they are lossing money this half year .... selling more but making no money

[Placebo]

November retail data out this week (Stats NZ). Could make interesting reading.

[winner69]

Placebo - its not so much the topline figure that matters (even Postie+ sales are up)but the lack of sustainable margin that many are making on what they do sell

However any weakness in the top line figure only adds to their woes ..... as the expense base seems remains ... and keeps on going up

[Halebop]

On the surface those PPG numbers look nasty. Who would pick similar margin contraction for WHS too on that basis? Some ugly numbers may be in the offering soon I think.

[Tomahawk]

Somebody wants some....
A few million dollars worth of shares has changed hands to a unlimited bidder a $3.50. That's probably the only thing propping up the share price at the moment.

[Gryffyn]

I'd say it is looking good to reach some new lows soon.

[croesus]

Could some one have shorted a while back and be covering themselves ?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:
WHS
19/01/2005
FORECAST

REL: 0837 HRS The Warehouse Group Limited

FORECAST: WHS: Trading and Earnings Update

19th January 2005

The Warehouse Group Limited
Trading and Earnings Update

Red Sheds

The directors of The Warehouse Group Limited (the "Group") report that sales
in The Warehouse NZ (the "Red Sheds") during November and December 2004 were
2.8% ahead of the same period last year with same store sales down 1.3%.

Disappointing performance in seasonal categories such as apparel, sporting
goods, toys and gardening have impacted sales in the Red Sheds. Partially
offsetting this, the Red Sheds has experienced an uplift in sales in the
technology and entertainment sector, albeit these are lower margin
categories. The change in sales mix and higher fixed costs have resulted in
an overall contraction of operating margins in the period.

"There have been a lot of conflicting views about how retailers have
performed over Christmas. Until we can overlay our sales numbers with
industry data we are not in a position to comment meaningfully on our
relative performance over the Christmas trading period," said Ian Morrice,
Group CEO of The Warehouse Group Limited.

Group

While the first half trading period has yet to close, the Group expects to
report a first half Net Profit After Tax ("NPAT") of between $50m to $54m, or
3%-10% lower than that achieved in the previous corresponding period. Full
details of The Warehouse Group Limited second quarter sales and financial
results for the first half ended 30th January 2005 will be released on
Monday, 14th March 2005.

The Group expects full year earnings to be between $66m to $71m or 8% to 16%
ahead of that achieved in the 2003/04 financial year.

The directors confirm that the Yellow Sheds remains on target for a
substantial reduction in operating losses for the full 2004/05 financial
year.

The above guidance assumes no change in current trading conditions for the
balance of the financial year.
ENDS
End CA:00110480 For:WHS Type:FORECAST Time:2005-01-19:08:37:11

[winner69]

What a surprise ... the Red Sheds are the REAL problem with WHS

All that extra footprint and sales up a miserable few per cent .... and that margin contraction

So after seeing the Red Sheds profitability decline in the 2nd half of the last financial year another decline in profitability in this half year.

Anticipated eps this year about 20 cents ... heck that is what last years dividend was .... and they have over 33 cents of capex planned this year

What gives?

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

...What gives?


The dividend!

[winner69]

That announcement was a shocker really

Not just for the lack of news it contained but the vagueness of the whole thing.

No mention of Stationery so presume doing OK ... I doubt it.

Everybody knew Aust losses were going to be smaller but at least we know the reduction is going to be substantial .... but how close to breakeven ... some time I feel.

Red Sheds are a real problem ... think about it .... overall NPAT down (lets take their best view) $1M ...... of which say a $10M improvement in Australia ........ leaves NZ operations NPAT declining by $9M

Announcement says the better the turnaround in Aust the worse the performance in NZ ... start fixing one and the other goes to the pack

Not good for shareholders ... maybe that Elliot Wave will see the shareprice down to 285 as posted by someone earlier

[Bling_Bling]

Here comes $3.00. OUCH !

Again, going to the WHS stores and noticed that nothing has changed on the ground floor.

[Sky Tower]

Try here comes $2.00 OUCH

The trend is your friend and there's only one trend going on here

[Sky Tower]

The announcement should not be a surprise. House prices have been very strong for 2 or 3 years, we have had a very bullish sharemarket for 2 years, and unemployment is less than 4% (economists consider 4% unemployment as full employment).

People are feeling wealthy (whether they are actually wealthier is a moot point) so they don't feel they have to buy the cheapest of the cheap.

The other revolution taking place is that NZers are beginning to appreciate the concept of 'value'. Previously people thought that value was buying the cheapest they possibly could; 'value for money' is a completely different concept. Instead of shopping at WHS, they are shopping at places like Farmers.

As an aside, have you ever seen what happens to the main shopping street in a small provincial town, in NZ, when The Warehouse arrives in town. It ain't nice.

Right now I'd rather be a JE Thomas & Co shareholder than a WHS shareholder!!

The downtrend to continue for some time yet.

[floyd]

JE Thomas & Co, yeah im sure theyre doing pretty damn well.... you a marlborough man skytower or know someone that works there?

as for whs, wouldnt touch it .... look at the trend, you would have to be near on crazy.

[Sky Tower]

Floyd lets just say I come from the best part of New Zealand ;)
And another year or two of a bull market (prolly unlikely) and that holiday house in Lochmara Bay will be more of a reality rather than the present dream.

Christmas at Puna Cove this year was bliss (after a stressful year at work).

[floyd]

then that makes two of us sky tower, ahhh yes that lochmara bay bach dream....ive got it too....lol

[Sky Tower]

wanna go halves? the dream will be a become a reality twice as fast that way - six months of the year each

[Major von Tempsky]

They could be worth buying as a recovery stock once they hit $2.50...and they sell off the Silly Sollys and Clints Crazy Bargain stores in Oz (unsuitable sizes, designs and unWarehouse type locations)....and after the NZ economy has gone through its business cycle over the next two years and NZ retail spending recovers.....

[Sky Tower]

I agree with The Major (surprisingly). I was kidding when I said $2.00. At some level it will find support and if I was a betting man I'd say something like $2.50. They will eventually sort out Aussie, the NZ business cycle will move in its normal cycle - and there will always be enough New Zealanders who dont understand the concept of 'value' for money ( a portion of the population will always shop at the Red Sheds...........so they find support somewhere - but the price will fall some way yet

[pierre]

The Red sheds - appalling service from totally uninterested staff, store layouts a shambles, cheap crappy products.

The Blue sheds - an utter disgrace. Staff haven't the faintest idea what they're about when it comes to high tech products (like an ink cartridge for a printer - lol).

I think the Warehouse is finally being found out by more and more discerning shoppers.

You only find me in one of their shops if I'm really desperate to buy something that will last five minutes, have hours to waste in one of their interminable queues, and am in the mood to tolerate the insolent shoulder shrugging from the gum chewing turkeys manning the checkouts.

Hmmm - is this too harsh? No.

[Sky Tower]

No not too harsh Pierre - pretty much right on the button actually

[Toddy]

Thank goodness for the strong NZ dollar.
The business would be a complete mess if the kiwi was trading at its long term average.

[zyreon]

short term reversal (see candle sticks, stochastics - MACD crossover for confirmation), look to pick up 5-20 cents


as for the actual business, well i was gunna buy a cheap stereo from them yesterday but decided to buy a 300 from noel lemming due to it being far superior and more likely to last a few years - good times=bad times for whs?

[Bling_Bling]

Surprise to see WHS price holding up well after another profit downgrade. Whats up?

[Sky Tower]

I have been to The Warehouse once in the past 12 months. Was looking for an ironing board cover. Given the product involved I thought quality wasnt an important issue so went to WHS to get it as cheap as possible.

So Ive spent $24.95 at the Albany Red Shed in 12 months.

Wouldn't consider making an important purchase there [:p]

[Major von Tempsky]

So the real question is why is the WHS shareprice holding up so well against the force of gravity?
Who's their broker, what's he doing....are the institutions buying to protect their own backsides.....have the chartists discovered some silly pattern to keep it up...
In the end gravity prevails....

[zyreon]

WHS is in the top 15, in the general public's mind it's a quasi blue chip, if the price drops then..."maybe it's a bargain"

[winner69]

Story says that ' after a (Millers) restructuring would occur in advance of possible moves on rivals The Reject Shop or even New Zealand's The Warehouse Group.'

and they reckon that 'The two (WHS and MRL)had held talks about a merger mid-last year as losses mounted but those discussions went nowhere and Warehouse redoubled its commitment to turn around the Australian operation. It is unclear whether Warehouse has been circling Miller's since those talks'

Yesterday WHS denied they were interested in MRL

Still believe, irrespective of any rationalisation, WHS are doomed in Australia. That middle ground is a hard place to be ... positioned below the likes of Target etc with thier huge resource and above the smaller more nimble 2 dollar shop look alikes

Whatever takeover and rationalisation speculation of Aussie things will keep the WHS shareprice up for a while

But isn't the real real problem declining profits in the Red Sheds .. far more important issue than Australia

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12001963%5E643,00.html

[Placebo]

Meanwhile....

WHS has crept back up through $4. Well done to those who bought in at around $3.50. The question going forward is, is this a recovery with any momentum, or a dead cat bounce?

[Halebop]

The share price performance of this puppy defies logic so who knows?

Maybe Australian trading is better than expected? I'd be surprised if NZ provided any growth.

I wasn't keen at $3.50 and still not at $4.00.

[madmike]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Meanwhile....

WHS has crept back up through $4. Well done to those who bought in at around $3.50. The question going forward is, is this a recovery with any momentum, or a dead cat bounce?


oh oh oh chart please
lets see if the ta's have a signal in their crystal ball(s)!!!!
volumes up...price up...is there a buy signal just around the corner.
ta's ......open ya trousers and have a look (no pictures please)

[Fish Broker]

Closed above the 100 day moving average - I know it is a pretty basic indicator, but still one I always look at first.

Wouls be good to see a good chart..... from a knowledgeable TA poster....

Hate the stores but it certainly looks like it is nearing a buy, if it is not one already.

THE KING says for information only, had a visit to Warehouse Gosford. NSW. its located in an old Coles Building in main street that mean nothing because its not in a shopping mall 10 staff pointed right away they where moving across the road and into a Mall in May,, the shop was stocked to the gunnels but above K Mart prices but very little customers this $4 price looks suspect as AUS to my mind is not making money.. [^]

[Phaedrus]

FB,
WHS has still not broken above its 2 year confirmed long-term trendline. It is still in a long-term downtrend, though it has been in a "medium-term" uptrend for about 2 months. It is, of course, possible to trade these secondary trends. I have plotted the trendlines and their associated Buy signals in light blue. Such signals are quite unsuitable for the "Buy and Hold" brigade - you can see that you would have lost money buying at these points and simply holding. You are also attempting to trade counter-trend. (Going Long on secondary trends, when the primary trend is down). This can be profitable, but you are fighting the market. These signals are quite suitable for short-term trading, though. You need to have discipline and a system that works - and I don't mean just a trailing stop or somesuch.
When we look at the On Balance Volume plot, we can see that there is no unequivocal evidence of accumulation as yet. The OBV is still in a downtrend and still below its trendline. Notice, though, the high volume "Up" day of 27/1/05 (green arrow). WHS has never had such a high volume Up day before. Ever. This must be considered to be Bullish. In my opinion, WHS has bottomed out. I must point out that I thought the same when such good support appeared at around $4.00, but it went still lower, so what do I know?
In short, good for a short-term punt, but not for conservative buyers as yet.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/WHSf001.gif

[Fish Broker]

An excellent posting made while I was off getting flounders to put on the BBQ for tea...

Thanks.....

THE KING says The Head man sacks himself a couple of hours ago and not a word from the MOB.. [^][^][^]

[stephen]

I note the appointment of two UK executives into key positions. Heh. Step 1, appoint your mates as lieutenants.

[Halebop]

Well the market likes them at the moment. Thoughts of potential 10% cost reductions must be prevailing? If they acheive this it clearly serves to illustrate the differing qualities of their Australian and New Zealand businesses.

The share price is now up over 22% since their earlier lows. They also appear to have broken the long term downtrend line in Phaedrus' chart above. I'm happy to miss out on this rise. Still too many fundamentals out of wack.

[patsy]

-----------------------------------------
WHS
23/02/2005
DIRECTOR

REL: 1001 HRS The Warehouse Group Limited

DIRECTOR: WHS: Resignation of founding director, key appointments made

THE WAREHOUSE GROUP LIMITED
ANNOUNCES THE RESIGNATION OF A FOUNDING DIRECTOR

KEY APPOINTMENTS MADE

Auckland, 23rd February 2005 - The board of The Warehouse Group Limited has
accepted the resignation of Glen Inger as an executive director following a
highly successful 17 year career with the company, effective 6th May 2005.

Mr Inger has decided to step down from his board and senior management roles
with The Warehouse Group Limited to devote more time to his family and his
many and varied business interests, including farming and forestry.
-------------------------------------


One of the best things that could have happened to whomever is (still) a WHS shareholder.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by rocking


quote:including farming and forestry.

.. and other, less doomed interests.


Sure you are not born a CYNIC, Rocking?;)

[madmike]

quote:Originally posted by stephen

I note the appointment of two UK executives into key positions. Heh. Step 1, appoint your mates as lieutenants.


mmmm very much in the food area...safeways and sainburys.....i like the cut of that type of jib.....how well did rbc do out of the petrol stations (ie challenging the big boys)???????

[whatsup]

Sub $4.00 WHS finding it hard to keep above $4.00!!!!

[Halebop]

The numbers from this analysis encapsulates a 6 year period, shorter than my preferred 7 year measurement but the data I kept for 1998 was substandard to base this analysis on. I'm sure I won't offend anyone with my views...

Business Tenets:

Is the business simple and understandable?
Yes. They sell General Merchandise and Office Supplies through Bulk Retail format in New Zealand The Australian operation is a bit more complex though, a somewhat mixed up hybrid Bulk Retail / Deep Discount format.

Does the business have a consistent operating history?
The original “Red Sheds” have been the traditional drivers of the business but profitability stalled and inconveniently declined just as the Yellow sheds started to reduce their high losses. Returns on the core Red Shed operation in New Zealand are still high but the trends have been soft. The underlying strength of the NZ business is still apparent. Give it a weak Yes.

Favourable Long term prospects?
Yes. They are the dominant General Retailer in New Zealand and market share counts for a lot. However Australia was a turnaround the moment they bought. Prospects here are far from certain.

Management Tenets

Is Management Rational?
WHS has been a company in growth mode for 20 years. Often it takes a growth company a long time to get over the fact that they've reached a plateau in the “S” curve, resulting in a period, sometimes years, of over-investment. WHS has proved no exception. They have continued to spend capital like a teenager and this fat has flowed to the hips, not to shareholders, as operations have become somewhat pear shaped.

If you are a company with problems, particularly issues with profitability and Capital commitments does it make sense to borrow your dividends from the bank?

They also say the right things like “we'll manage Capex more closely” then spend the greatest amount the company has ever incurred ($120m 2004).

Rational has left the building – No.

Is Management candid with shareholders?
No. Small changes were promised at the Australian operations at the time of acquisition but it soon became obvious the plan was to turn them into the Warehouse Australia. Had shareholders been aware of this the risks and costs would have been factored into the share price a lot earlier. When problems arose they took a long time to filter to the market. Nobody seemed willing to face up. Also, see Capex comments above.

Does management resist the institutional imperative?
Management paid top dollar for two separate Australian deep discount retailers with small format stores in the hope of turning them into the Warehouse NZ success. Not only was this strategy hopelessly flawed and expensive, it diverted management attention from the core Red Sheds and the embryonic Blue Sheds. Results at the core business are now suffering. After problems became apparent a successful turnaround or exit strategy obviously proved difficult to execute. Despite the problems, management still failed to reign in Capex and consolidate. Emphatic No.

Financial Tenets:

Return on Equity

ROE calculated NPAT on end of year shareholders funds...

1999 30.39%
2000 41.19%
2001 32.04%
2002 31.66%
2003 23.86%
2004 17.64%

Note: These numbers a more Return on Net Tangible Assets than equity as I ignore goodwill in my calculations.

What can you say? The trend is not inspiring. A five year trend in one direction. 2005 is destined to be worse. One argument presented as to why WHS have value is that the loss making Australian operations can be sold or closed to restore some profitability. While this is true, its unlikely anyone would want them in their current state and redundancies, lease commitments and other liquidation costs would likely eat more than any remaining residual value. To restore value WHS is practically committed to turning around the Australian operation whether they want to or not. Irrespective of the ultimate success of this strategy,

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

I'm sure I won't offend anyone with my views...


Great analysis Halebop - keep it up!

I am a relatively new investor in the Warehouse, attracted by the first severe market slump after nearly a decade of share price outperformance.

It is very easy to design a mathematical model that gives some fantastic future valuation for WHS, based on a good management record over many years (before the last couple at least). Ultimately though, you have to sit back from your mathematical model and ask yourself:

"Is what I am projecting realistic?"

If the answer is 'no' then it doesn't matter how sophisticated your model is. The law of 'GIGO' (Garbage In Garbage Out) applies.

And so it has been over the last couple of years with 'The Warehouse'.

It is interesting to compare this investment with my other NZ retail investment - Restaurant Brands.

On a business level I would say the retail management talent in 'The Warehouse' knocks the socks off anything seen in Restaurant Brands. WHS has a successful record of growth over many years whereas RBD has a successful record of stagnation over the same time period. WHS has in the past shown how to convert retained shareholder earnings into real growth, whereas all the growth attempted by RBD management has been marginal at best.

To some extent this is still reflected in the respective share prices with WHS trading on a P/E of 21 and RBD trading on RBD on a P/E of 14 based on FY2004 earnings. IMO, and despite the latest problems WHS is the better retailer by a first round technical knock out. It isn't really even a contest.

Put my investors hat on though, and things change.

WHS is going to have to work very hard this year to justify its share price. For although the price is hovering around a multi year low in dollar terms , in P/E terms it is still high. RBD, OTOH doesn't really have to do anything but bumble along and avoid any (further) footshots to justify the share price being exactly where it is.

For the medium term, I like both of these companies which is why I am still in both. In the short term, however, I have this feeling that RBD is more likely to tread water than WHS is likely to get significantly better. For me, that is enough to make RBD clearly the better shorter term *investment* performer of the two.

SNOOPY

THE KING says Good thinking Snoopy.. [^]

[duncan macgregor]

I fail to understand anyone having shares in a company in trouble. Both WHS and RBD are in trouble why bother with reasons or waste your time wondering why or how they might get out of it STICK TO WINNERS. When they start losing, get out, and look for a winner. LOSERS ARE FOR LOSERS, AND WINNERS ARE FOR WINNERS.
Any one that thinks different is a loser. The whole retail game is in general to competetive, BGR with never ending sales wont go to far unless they change direction. The warehouse needs to get out of australia, and RBD needs to get its act going, infact the worst of the three is a hard one to pick. I will venture the opinion that RBD is the worst, followed by WHS and BGR third. macdunk

Who ran Forth for the Double..;)

[Gryffyn]

Too simplistic Dunc. What about Hallensteins recently. Slogans are for losers methinks, investors look at value.

Define company in trouble.

Disc: No WHS.

[duncan macgregor]

GRYFFYN, It is simplistic Muck about with losers, and you become one.
Who cares what the company is worth if the promises ammount to nothing, and the profit drops. Stick to companies on uptrends with increasing profits. SNOOPY has done great analysis on RBD over the years which ammounted to nothing, with the share price dropping by half, in a bull run. Who cares about a divi when you watch your initial investment half in value. Stick on winning sectors first, winning companies second,and get the hell out of there at the drop of a hat. Never mind all the crap about working out what the company is worth, talk to the tea lady she will give out more usefull information than the accountant. Good news coming up buy. Bad news coming up sell very simple. MACDUNK
PS the tea lady has all the news

[Snow Leopard]

WHS (and CEN) seem to have dived at the end of the day.

THE KING says WHS is a great stock by the way it sticks, the saying goes for MORTINE spray is, " It keeps ON sticking ON " ..[^]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Amazing that WHS price is still the same as it was 5 years ago

Imagine some poor fella called Sid who went bush for 5 years in November 1999 happy that his WHS shares were $3.80 and came out today and found they were still about $3.80.

Sid asked his sharebroker what has happened to the WHS over the last 5 years - his sharebroker told him

**** Store numbers have increased from 87 to 351
**** Sales are nearly 2 1/2 times what they were - increased from $0.9 billion to $2.2 billion
**** Net assets have more than doubled - from $170M to $357M
**** Now have 15,877 empoyees - 10.262 more than 5 years ago
**** Spent $500M on capital expenditure

So Sid replies 'Thats impressive, they must be making heaps now'

Oh no his sharebroker told Sid - their profit has only increased from $54M to $61M in those five years ... and the earnings per share has gone from 19cents to 20 cents.

Poor Sid - he's incredulous. All that investment and all those extra staff and they are only making the same as they were 5 years ago.

Who does he blame? He can't blame investor sentiment because WHS is still trading at 20X earnings - it hasn't been rerated downward. Sid says to himself that is just as well as if they had been rerated down they might have only been worth $2-$3. At least he still has his capital and he has had a few piddly dividends put in his bank account but inflation has taken care of those.

Sid asks his sharebroker 'Have the WHS really stuffed up somewhere along the way?'

Sid's sharebroker tells him 'No not really. They are investing for the future and all should be right in few years and your WHS shares should be worth $10 each in 5 years'

Sid thinks thats good and decides going bush for another 5 years might be the caper

What will Sid's sharebroker tell Sid when he comes back to civilisation in 5 years time?




Sid's brother died and Sid came out of the bush for the funeral. While at the funeral he asked his sharebroker how his WHS shares were going ... must be heading back to $10 by now he asked.

No the sharebroker told Sid .. they are actually worth about 20% less than when you came out of the bush last November

But don't fret said the sharebroker. They are changing the way they do business in NZ, going to go into groceries and think that Woolworths coming into NZ could be good for everybody. The shareprice will go back up to the old heights of old ... it just keep keep going down down down ....

And Sid has gone back to the bush happy as Larry his nest egg is going to grow ....

[Phaedrus]

I see in the Herald this morning that Smith Barney have reduced WHS from a "Hold" to a "Sell". That's a Sell at around $3.11 - the lowest this stock has been for over 6 years. These guys are good!
Remember, it's time in the market that counts, not timing the market! Baloney.
Those that think you can't time the market might like to take a look at this post from July 2002.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/2002/07/msg00272.shtml

[Gryffyn]

no impact on today's trading so far. either all the recent selling was those in the know, or remaining holders don't read.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

.... Remember, it's time in the market that counts, not timing the market! Baloney.



Good point Phaedrus

Todays price is where it was back last century - looks like we need to go back to December 1998 when it was this low.

So anybody who has bought and sat on WHS since then is sitting on a capital loss ... mind you they have had some dividends in the meantime but 6-7 years worth of inflation has probably diluted those.

I then wonder how many of these investors are still sitting on their WHS invetment because they refuse to turn their paper loss into reality. Surely you can lose money on holding WHS stock can you?There has to be a turn around, doesn't there?

Isn't that how the buy and hold brigade think.

[K9]

W69, you and C9 been on to it a long time



tell that to guys like Bungo66

$1.3b off the market cap and still the head remains in the sand.



150% later from $3.15 and some of these ostriches will get their money back:D

150% to break even! poor WHS divs have paid for what?

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by THE KING

Who ran Forth for the Double..;)


PPG:D

[winner69]

Note Millers are going to writeoff $25M of stock ... probably going to have lots of sales by rhe sound of it

And close 80 stores and make a provision of $30M to cover this

And the discount variety business is deemed to be worthless and and write down the $31M they had it on the books at

Hasn't the WHS done well in stuffing this business in a big way

And of course WHS aren't affected by the actions they have taken to stuff the opposition .. aren't they doing well in Australia?

Hope making big writedowns isn't catchy

[BRICKS]

winner69 do you hold this stock.. [8D]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

winner69 do you hold this stock.. [8D]


WHS? maybe at $2 sometime

[Capitalist]

WHS could well be the next Levene. It could disappear completely. I hope it doesn't of course, but...

[skinny]

IMO Cap raises a very real possibility. It is difficult to see how the WHS will be able to compete as Foodstuffs and P.E. expand store formats into hyper markets. WOW taking out P.E. will only hasten this transition. As a takeover target it's certainly attractive given its footprint; but current prices are still a fair way above NTA of $1.20 yet [:0];)

[duncan macgregor]

CAPITALIST, LEVENES was a well run operation that was sold off, so that the man could retire. The bunch of wallies that bought it ran it into the ground. The warehouse started off being a great company, until they had visions of grandure expanding overseas and taking Australia by storm. The company will go under if they dont change direction. macdunk

[Capitalist]

I don't think the govt will save WHS Belgarion...Perhaps I should say buy WHS?? Just in case eh?

Just kidding.

[Snow Leopard]

I am sure that the government would step in to save this national icon and then flog it off to some merchant bankers a few years down the road.

Not kidding

[dingdong]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I am sure that the government would step in to save this national icon and then flog it off to some merchant bankers a few years down the road.

Not kidding


National icon? You must be joking. Only a third world or communist country would regard a bargain basement discount retailer as a national icon. Mind you, I haven't been to NZ lately.

[trendy]

WHS may have to swallow hard, like Air NZ did with Ansett, and walk away from their Aussie loss making investment to focus on their core profit making stores in NZ. Watch the NZX announcements...

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
p.s. Watch out W69 ... If you say $2.00 the rabid mongrel will start posting more rubbish.

I know ya love it, my poor lonely martyr

WHS at $3.35 has a long way to go before Belgs "easily attainable" $2...and + 2.45% today

time as usual will tell, nothing more to say so....

no need to get excited about being wrong again for the 50th time airbusboy


watch the US and DOW if OIL rises!:D
((([^])))

[winner69]

Millers writing down the value of their discount variety division to zero indicates that getting rid of it is the way to go ... ie divesting it

Both WHS and Millers have been unable to compete in this market ... you only need to look at WHS positioning map they are so proud of to see why.

Other side of tasman view is that WHS will exit sometime ... image if dog took over dog

[sharebattler]

The following appeared in todays "The Australian"

Buyers eye discount chains
Katherine Jimenez and Michael West
June 27, 2005

RETAIL rivals Warehouse Group and Miller's Retail are holding talks about a potential $300 million sale of their combined Australian discount store chains.

About four private equity firms are circling the discount businesses of Warehouse, owner of about 130 The Warehouse outlets in the eastern states, and Miller's, owner of more than 300 Go-Lo and Crazy Clark's outlets.

As well, New Zealand-based Warehouse is believed to have approached Miller's with a proposal for the two companies to package their discount variety operations in Australia for a single trade sale.

Warehouse is believed to have started talks with four private equity firms - Allco Equity Partners, Castle Harlan Australian Mezzanine Partners, Archer Capital and Catalyst - to buy the merged business.

Analysts believe the network of the more than 400 stores could be about $300 million. One prospective buyer said benefits from the deal could be close to $50 million in terms of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.


Warehouse, whose board is believed to have considered the proposal at a meeting last Friday, has appointed investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston to pursue the deal on its behalf.

It is believed Miller's has not yet received a formal offer for its discounting business.

Miller's, which also owns fashion chains such as Katies, Crossroads and 1626, is close to finalising an emergency strategic review that could recommend the sale of the ailing discount business.

Miller's has been hit by three profit downgrades in the past 12 months. The most recent involved a number of one-off write-downs associated with excess inventory, 80 store closures and slashing the carrying value of the discount business from $31 million to zero.

Miller's chairman Geoff Levy declined to comment on any of the proposals for the discount business and said the company had provided no advisory mandate for a sale.

"A number of things are being looked at," Mr Levy said. "We've had a smorgasbord of proposals put to us by private equity firms."

The Reject Shop, with more than 100 discount stores in Australia, has apparently approached Miller's about some of its state store networks.

A merger of Warehouse Australia and Miller's discount variety businesses would reduce the number of players in the crowded and highly competitive $8 billion sector.

ABN AMRO estimates that Miller's and Warehouse, whose Australian operations are staging a significant profit recovery, each control about 7 per cent of the discount department store market.

The combined business, which would generate a combined income of about $1.3 billion and control about 400 stores, would be a more powerful force against retail giants Coles Myer and Woolworths.

Coles Myer, owner of Kmart and Target, has about 45 per cent of the discount market, with Woolworths' Big W holding 31 per cent. The Reject Shop is estimated to have a share of about 2 per cent.

Warehouse could not be reached for comment

[Sideshow Bob]

Did\ the trick though, plus the 'continuous disclosure' announcement - up 28c today!!

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion June 8th

You're right Cap ...

Nope, even kidding, I wouldn't suggest anyone buy WHS just yet ... although the dog seemed to think it was okay buying at $3.00 ... mind you he didn't admit to buying any tho. :)

Why take the stress ... Wait for the news ... [}:)]


FINISH $3.68!!!

UP 20% IN LESS THAN 3 WEEKS

Begarion must be the biggest loser!!!

stockcalls that is;)


:D:D:D:Dlovin it[^]

[winner69]

Great stuff ... at least WHS not contemplating buying another stable of dogs

Finally admitting defeat is good news

If Millers and WHS are going to share the $300M some hefty writedown for WHS coming up. Last WHS accounts showed Aussie assets about $240M ... lets say they get $100M of the $300M thats $140M to be written off.

But then thats only a few years losses anyway and as many have said WHS is worth more without Aussie.

Only have to sort out NZ now but those profits are going backwards as well.

Look to 700 sometime next year K9?








the combined outlets are only worth 300M wouldn't give WHS much

[Caesius]

Has WHS commented on these rumors?

[sharebattler]

Hi Caesius
WHS's release to the ASX about "The Australian" article can be found at this link ..

http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20050627/pdf/3rbgq4wwddbyb.pdf

[sharebattler]

Further article in "The Australian" today

Warehouse shops for Miller's
Katherine Jimenez
June 28, 2005

THE $8 billion Australian discount department store market is entering a period of consolidation, as New Zealand's The Warehouse Group yesterday confirmed talks with rival Miller's Retail.

It is understood the Warehouse board met last Friday to discuss a proposal that would see Warehouse merge its Australian operations with Miller's discount variety business. The packaged group would then be on-sold for about $300 million, with four private equity firms circling the business.

Responding to an article in The Australian yesterday, Warehouse confirmed it was in talks with Miller's and others and that it was reviewing its loss-making Australian operations.

Warehouse chief executive Ian Morrice said: "If you look at the structure of the discount sector in Australia, further consolidation could be an option at this point. It's very early days and we are looking at it."

He declined to comment on the options being considered.

Investors cheered confirmation of the sale talks, which, if successful, would put an end to years of pain for Miller's and Warehouse.

Both have had a disastrous time in the discount department store sector in recent years, brought on by internal problems and intense competition, mostly between each other.

Miller's discount variety business is made up of about 340 Go-Lo and Crazy Clarks stores, but it intends to close about 80. Warehouse, which entered the Australian market five years ago through the purchase of Crazy Clint's and Silly Solly's, owns 115 stores.

Miller's shares rose 7c to 77.5c on heavy turnover.

Warehouse's shares recorded their biggest one-day gain in several years, soaring 28c to $3.68.

Mr Morrice said the company initiated discussions with Miller's only a few weeks ago. "I think, from both our points of view, it's an option that we are at least prepared to discuss and consider and we'll see if there is any outcome or not," he said.

Warehouse has apparently begun talks with four private equity firms -- Allco Equity Partners, Castle Harlan Australian Mezzanine Partners, Archer Capital and Catalyst -- to buy the merged business. The enlarged business would generate sales of about $1.3 billion and have a market share of 14 per cent, improving its competitive platform against rivals Coles Myer and Woolworths.

Coles, through Kmart and Target, holds a 45 per cent share of the market. Woolworths, with its Big W banner, has about 31 per cent, according to ABN AMRO.

A Miller's spokesman confirmed that "various parties" had approached the group, which also owns fashion labels such as Katies, but said discussions were all "preliminary in nature".

The Reject Shop, with more than 100 discount stores in Australia, has apparently approached Miller's about some of its state store networks.

Industry sources believe that a successful divestment of Warehouse Australia would make its slimmer New Zealand parent company more attractive to predators such as British supermarket giant Tesco, which already has close ties to the company.

[K9]

WHS $2 is "easily attainable" was your call...

currently $3.68!!!

no, laughing at YOU losearion[^]

[Halebop]

WHS at $4.00 and not a single comment?

The market obviously thinks they've got a good chance of securing a reasonable price for the Yellow Sheds. If they got A$100m I'd pick $4.00 is about 14x Net NZ earnings.

What's WHS worth if they buy Millers discount variety business instead?

[K9]

:D:D:D:D:D:DI`m happy
My revaluation of WHS met with ridicule from Belgarion.


[^] utterly satisfying timing, time to crack a nice red, sit back and enjoy.


It`s true, Belgarion is the BIGGEST LOSER!
congrats...well done...everytime

"$2 is easily attainable" now $4!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Barharhahahahafaraajhahaaraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaa

[K9]

BTW. WHS has put on over $275,000,000 since then too;)

add that to his sell call on AIA, it put on over $500,000,000!!!



and he`s delirious over a mouldy pumped up carpet roll:D

[winner69]

Aust to go ... only a matter of days now ... but the price is getting cheaper for the private equity guys ... a dog recognised as such at last

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3386949a13,00.html

[Gryffyn]

Hey K9, while a $2 call was crazy, you did originally out a $2.50 call yourself which you changed after a few posts of mine! Perhaps you are going a little far with your ridiculing methinks.

[K9]

:D:D:D:D:D:D

what???

now you are trying to claim some kind of credit


...for my own posts?

maybe I should now claim I helped you hold for another 50c on MHI[:o)]

[Gryffyn]

No, just that you reviewed your initial call after I asked what it was based on and suggested that it was a bit extreme.

[winner69]

Snoopy .. your post on sharechat
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum/showthread.php?t=78

Good stuff and keeps the thread going

Do I read it correctly that the new workings and assumptions are based on the future in NZ alone, ie assuming Austrlaia gone.

For those who don't go to sharechat Snoopys model says 380 would give a long term return of 7.6%

Snoopy, a question - if one wnated a Buffet like 15% return wpuld price would one buy at?

Interesting that your modelling comes up with about the current price ... sort of suggests that Mr Market has already priced in the 'good news' of an Australian exit

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Snoopy .. your post on sharechat
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum/showthread.php?t=78

Good stuff and keeps the thread going

Do I read it correctly that the new workings and assumptions are based on the future in NZ alone, ie assuming Australia gone.


Yes that is correct. I have also downgraded the expected ROE to better reflect the fact that WHS is a mature NZ business. I see WHS as still growing and still generating above average long term returns. Despite recent difficulties WHS do have a very good record stretching back over ten years after all. I don't subscribe to the view that management have 'suddenly lost it'.


quote:
For those who don't go to sharechat Snoopys model says 380 would give a long term return of 7.6%

Snoopy, a question - if one wanted a Buffet like 15% return would price would one buy at?


That info you seek is on the horrible squashed up sideways chart I was forced to post as an attachment to the text I posted on 31st July 2005. If you look really hard at the top LH corner of the chart (relative to the orientation in which it is posted) you will see the figure you want. "$1.95".


quote:
Interesting that your modelling comes up with about the current price ... sort of suggests that Mr Market has already priced in the 'good news' of an Australian exit


I think some WHS followers are of the view that once WHS get out of Australia their problems will be over. I don't subscribe to this view. It will be much harder for WHS to grow their business if restricted to the NZ market alone. And there are the profitability trend problems with the Red Sheds to sort out.

I was in the newest WHS last week, the new one in Riccarton Christchurch. Notable in that I don't go to the WHS every week like may NZers do!

I must say I was impressed with the new 'uncluttered' look. It did seem easy to make my way about the store to find what I wanted. I even picked up some WHS travel insurance for a short trip to Oz I have planned - how many of you knew WHS even sold that? Price compared very favourably with what I could get via my travel agent or my bank.

I picked up a three pack of long woollen blended socks ($9, not on special, but the regular price seemed to be cheaper than the 'special prices' at other stores for NZ made product). I also bought the toilet paper there. I didn't plan that, but there it was prominently displayed at the end of the aisle at a good price so I purchased.

As a concept I think the revamp will work.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Bongo - interesting comments about a bit of panic at HQ.

Will look forward to the next announcement

I hope they don't do a Postie Plus and blame warm weather in July ... how original

Re sales / sqm ... what's new .... for a few years now sales/sqm in the Red Sheds has been declining

The more footprint they put down the bigger the problem seems to get .. revenues don't seem to increase at the same rate and expenses go up.

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

The large concept stores in Hamilton and Whangerei are not working. Sales per sq metre are down.


I am fascinated as to where you are getting these insider insights from Bongo!

IMO you are viewing the sales situation too simplistically. I could easily improve WHS sales per square metre. I would close all stores and replace them with telephone booths with a single cashier.

To shop at WHS, you would then take down your weekly flier to the booth and the operator would get your order sent to a single centralised distribution warehouse and the goods would be couriered out to your home. My strategy would drastically improve sales per square metre. But would it be in the best interests of the Warehouse company?

Take the new Riccarton Warehouse that has moved from Upper Riccarton, the Bush Inn Centre, to a stand alone site on Blenhiem Road - the site of the former Warehouse regional distribution centre in fact.
The new site is bigger, yes, but it is also in an area that has traditionally been filled with wholesale distribution type businesses and factories. IOW, WHS have moved from 'prime retail' to an industrial area with (I presume) consummately lower rates. I'm picking the new site has a lower cost base. That means profitability could actually improve with the same number of sales and -because the new store is larger- that could mean improved profitability with 'lower sales per square metre'.

'Store location' seems to be a part of the Warehouse development strategy that most people miss. Warehouse tend to keep out of shopping malls, not because sales would suffer if they went there.
The problem is the sales increases a mall based WHS would get would not justify the higher rent payable compared to a stand alone WHS site. 'Profitable growth' is what the red sheds need. Not 'growth at any price'.

SNOOPY

discl: hold WHS

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

I don't subscribe to the view that management have 'suddenly lost it'.

Me neither. It happened over several years! [:p]

[winner69]

Full year announcement Sep 9th I believe

Could be interesting

[winner69]

Half year report had Red Sheds footprint up 10% with hardly any increase in sales on H104 and a 12% decline in ebitda on H04

So 28,000 sq metres of extra selling area for $12M less profit

Hope trend isn't continuing ..... Bongo has heard that it is .... could be interesting

[Sky Tower]

Bongo66: are you having clandestine meetings with the WHS tea lady???

I don't (at this stage) put much weight on the (interesting) statements you are making as you don't reveal the source or otherwise

Everything hearsay and unsubstantiated

[Sky Tower]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Not a good report coming in next few weeks. Sales are down and people are panicking at head office...


Being a publicly listed company anything likely to affect the share price, and particularly sales figures, should be a closely guarded secret - so why would you know (they are panicking at head office) ?

[K9]

when are they going to China?

[KJ]

Earnings forecast $66m to $71m has not been changed so one would not expect any shocks -they would have advised the market if this had changed.

[icehot]

B69, I hope you are wrong as I bought some on the recommendation from a broker who said that his firm believed that the sale of WHS Aust operations is a question now of when, not if. When the sale happens, WHS will be freed from pouring resources into a struggling operations and NZ would get a shot in the arm. Capital repayment and special dividend are possibilities. Lower sales and warm July no surprise as WHS has already alerted analysts to it. Sales will be down but profits held through margin improvements.

[Sky Tower]

quote:Originally posted by icehot

B69, I hope you are wrong as I bought some on the recommendation from a broker who said.....

bad move !!

[icehot]

I bought at $3.45 so should I sell now? I am told it can go to $5.00 post sale of Australia and capital repayment/share buyvback?

[Snow Leopard]

icehot
1 & 4) Buy more
2 & 5) Sell all
3 & 6) Hold what you have

Now roll the dice.

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

icehot
1 & 4) Buy more
2 & 5) Sell all
3 & 6) Hold what you have

Now roll the dice.




Not helpful.

[Sideshow Bob]

quote: Originally posted by Icehot:

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Paper Tiger

icehot
1 & 4) Buy more
2 & 5) Sell all
3 & 6) Hold what you have

Now roll the dice.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Not helpful.

But funny! :D

[Bling_Bling]

WHS gone for a run today. Whats up?

disc: shareholder :)

[icehot]

$4.00 is near so sale of Australia must be near, I hope.[:p]

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

WHS gone for a run today. Whats up?

disc: shareholder :)


Just riding on the back of Briscoes result today...

[Nigel]

whs had gone up before briscoes result came out (whs at 3.89 by lunchtime - bgr result out at 1:49pm). Perhaps more increase on the back of Briscoes on Friday now that bgr result widely published.
disc: whs

[Bling_Bling]

Looking back on last years results date, I understand WHS is due for a result announcement soon. Maybe a good result?

[pedro.nz]

The Warehouse Group Limited financial results for the year ended 31st July2005 will be released on Friday 9th September at approximately 8.30am.

[icehot]

Rumours out of Australia that sale of Australian operations to happen soon. [:p]

[Placebo]

$4 breached today!

Prediction: Back to $7 by Christmas [:o)]:D

[icehot]

Sold half today for a nice profit.

No thanks to some on this forum.

[duncan macgregor]

ICEHOT, What a stupid thing to do. You say that you bought on the recommendation of a broker, sold half at a nice profit, no thanks to other posters. Do you always need telling what to do?. Why sell half why not stick a tight stop loss on and run with it?. You will never make money in this game listening to everyone. The share is either a good buy, a bad buy, or not worth holding. Work it out yourself, dont blame all and sundry for your incompetance, get a system in place and stick to it. Macdunk

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Sky Tower


quote:Originally posted by icehot

B69, I hope you are wrong as I bought some on the recommendation from a broker who said.....

bad move !!


Duncan, I do not consider the above to be helpful. At least the broker gave me a view which I am happy to take at my own risk. And I have made money.

[Placebo]

Selling at a profit seems a reasonable system to me, Dunk [:o)]

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

icehot
1 & 4) Buy more
2 & 5) Sell all
3 & 6) Hold what you have

Now roll the dice.




Duncan, another of those 'funny' but unhelpful 'recommendation.'

I do not follow what everybody recommends or not recommend but I thought this is a forum for views and thoughts to be shared. And this includes me sharing the thoughts from a broker.

Anyway, I am now well up on this trade and keeping the other half for Friday. Looking forward to $5.00 soon. [:p]

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

icehot
1 & 4) Buy more
2 & 5) Sell all
3 & 6) Hold what you have

Now roll the dice.




Duncan, another of those 'funny' but unhelpful 'recommendation.'

I do not follow what everybody recommends or not recommend but I thought this is a forum for views and thoughts to be shared. And this includes me sharing the thoughts from a broker.

Anyway, I am now well up on this trade and keeping the other half for Friday. Looking forward to $5.00 soon. [:p]


So he is ahead and knows it all now does he?
You will notice that:
1) I distilled most possible responses to his ricidulous question into a single post;
2) made a valid, if sarcastic comment, on his apparent investment style;
3) and that he has taken two thirds of my advice: namely sold all (of half) and held (half of) what he has.

Icehot, I have crossed you off my Xmas card list, SO THERE! :D

regards

The Paper Tiger

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I am sure that the government would step in to save this national icon and then flog it off to some merchant bankers a few years down the road.

Not kidding


Paper Tiger, with thoughts like the above, I hope nobody ever gets a Christmas card from you. I notice how your above posting coincided with the Warehouse share price being near an all time low. So please do not offer me any more recommendation.

[duncan macgregor]

ICEHOT, No sense of humour what so ever my friend . Loosen up. macdunk

[icehot]

Higher again today. [^]

[CrossTrainer]

I purchased WHS 4 years ago at $5.59 and have hung in after their rise and then big drops. If the Australian arm is sold off, I am tossing up as to whether to sell when they rise to $5+ or speculate that they will rise to their former glory with only the NZ market with their domestic plans.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by CrossTrainer

I purchased WHS 4 years ago at $5.59 and have hung in after their rise and then big drops. If the Australian arm is sold off, I am tossing up as to whether to sell when they rise to $5+ or speculate that they will rise to their former glory with only the NZ market with their domestic plans.


Young man dont hold your breath.. [8D]

[CrossTrainer]

Dropped back below $4 today after I thought that they had broken through the barrier. Let's see what their result shows and then see how the market reacts.

[rmbbrave]

Yellow Shed loss may hit $195m
08 September 2005
By GARETH VAUGHAN

The Warehouse faces a loss of about $195.5 million on its unsuccessful Australian foray if the retailer decides to sell its troubled Yellow Sheds, investment bank ABN Amro says.


The Warehouse confirmed talks in Australia with Miller's Retail and others in June as it reviews its Australian Yellow Sheds business.

Though it posted a group profit of $61.2 million last year, The Warehouse lost $A32.3 million ($NZ35 million) in Australia.

The retailer reports annual results on Friday.

"Relative to the other options of closing the business, downsizing or continuing to invest new capital, we would view a clean sale of the Yellow Sheds for $A100 million ($NZ108.5 million) as a good outcome," ABN Amro analyst Carolyn Holmes says in a research note out yesterday.

That is well shy of the $A280 million ($NZ304 million) Ms Holmes estimates The Warehouse has invested in the Yellow Sheds since entering the Australian market in 2000.

The 124 Yellow Sheds are "clearly" not worth anywhere near that. They are probably worth between $A93 million and $A150 million assuming a deal was debt free and without conditions, Ms Holmes suggests.

ABN Amro estimates selling out would reduce capital expenditure by about $49 million over the next three years and increase earnings in 2006, 2007 and 2008.

Speculation in the Australian press has centred on The Warehouse and Miller's combining their discount store chains and selling them, probably to a private equity firm.

Macquarie Equities analyst Warren Doak points out this scenario could create issues about cost saving benefits and the proceeds from a sale and how they are split.

"The exit from Australia would be a positive and what they get for it is really immaterial," Mr Doak said.

Forsyth Barr analyst Jeremy Simpson said selling the Yellow Sheds would allow the company to focus on its New Zealand Red Sheds.

AdvertisementAdvertisement"They've lost their way a bit in the last three or four years and a lot of that may have been because they were spending so much time worrying about Australia," he said.

The Warehouse shares have climbed about 26 per cent in recent months on expectations of a Yellow Sheds sale.

"Therefore, if The Warehouse was unable to sell the business or if there are negative conditions attached to the deal, there is the risk that the share price would retrace much of the recent gains," Ms Holmes says in her research note.

The Warehouse shares reversed the recent trend with a 9c fall to $3.95 yesterday.

Since Scotsman Ian Morrice took over as chief executive last October, The Warehouse has moved to improve store layout and customer service in its Red Sheds.

The changes seem to be gaining support.

"Everything he (Mr Morrice) is talking about and is doing is good," Mr Simpson said.

"(But) it's still early days and the environment's tough, there's lots of competition".

[CrossTrainer]

We await the WHS results with baited breath

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by CrossTrainer

We await the WHS results with baited breath

then you need BLIS K12 Throat Guard (http://www.blis.co.nz/html/prod_k12about.html) available on a thread near here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=16457) [:0]

[winner69]

Buut is 17% ahead of last year Belg ... the writeoffs don't count ... its not cash stupid .... even though it was hard earned shareholders cash once ... a few years

At $71M earnings only a PE of 17 odd .... so expect price to head to 500 today belg

Believe the bull**** and the headlines ... makes good reading ... things like NZ being 8% down doesn't matter

[Snow Leopard]

quote:
The Warehouse Australia, in advance of the adoption of International
Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), the Board has resolved to rite-off the carrying value of the intangible assets attributable to the Australian business. The write-off of $32.9m is non cash and will have no impact on the quantum of dividends paid to shareholders.


Hoped for (by Warehouse) translation:
We are only doing this because IFRS treats goodwill amortization differently, and anyway it is not a real loss only one of those funny accounting things, so no worries, heh? :D

....and by the way, when we do sell the Oz stuff later on, the loss on sale will be $32.9m less, may even turn a little profit, we will not look so stupid then will we? ;)

[Phaedrus]

Short-term chart of current uptrend.
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/WHS99001.gif

[winner69]

Belg - face up to it mate ...WHS are on a roll

Have a geek at the preso (the live one that is) and they are on a roll

Co-ordinated homewares ... chocolate cushions are the rage .... and if you buy other good things in the store they will match the chocolate colour as well ... and if you go back in 3 months time everything will still be colour co-ordinated

And you have to impressed with all that Slazenger sports gear going into stores ... NZ's leading tennis balls ... and cricket gear soon as well

And don't the new mailers look rather swell .... esp seeing the apparel featured in it are what the people of NZ really want.

And those quality things (I couldn't quite catch what it was) that sell for $89 ... compared to equivalent products elsewhere at $169 .... and better quality than the highest price model they had ever stocked ay $40 .... quality products at a real good price.

And the video about the Shanghai procurement office was something not to be missed .... I am so pleased that the chinese have NZers interests at heart

But the exciting thing was that they said they would be mamking about (at least) $90M give or take a few million. Thats being comfortable with the analysts forecasts and adding back the $6.9M goodwill that no longer exists and the ongoing benefit from writing their computers off over a longer time (clever move that was adding a few million to the bottom line this year)

All good stuff mate ... $90M is 30 cents a share ... so even at a miserable PE of 15 thats $4.50 .... but after this years earnings growth of 17% and next years 26% earnings growth of 25% plus dont they deserve a PE of at least 20 ..... so thats $6.00 ..... and seeing they over delivered (most analysts forecasts) this year why should they do so again next year ... lets say $100M ... thats 33 cents a share ... times 20 is $6.60

Get the picture now belgie .... we shall never see $3.92 again .... just imagine the continuation of the line in Phaedrus's latest chart ... but even steeper over the next month or so.

Good reports will be coming out of ABN, UBS etc etc now .... they have seen the light .... marvelous performance by Morrice today ... the Red thing is unstoppable

[winner69]

Belg ... forgot to mention the video of the Hamilton store .... it really is something else ... the guy who set it up sees it is not really up to spped it but big steps forward have been made .... and 160,000 people came the first few days .... really swell

You have a few hours to get in under 4 bucks /// shares that is ... not chocolate colour cordinated towels

[limegreen]

It's interesting to see that this one is through the 365 MA, and is potentially through a downtrend. The OBV has yet to turn up, however, and given what a wealth destruction machine WHS has been, I'd want to see some really convincing movement....

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/whs9sept05.gif

[rmbbrave]

Aussie write-off hits Warehouse

10.09.05
By Karen Chan


Australia's Yellow Sheds made an impact on The Warehouse's full-year result yesterday - but not in the way investors had hoped.

Warehouse chief executive Ian Morrice had no fresh information to offer about a review many anticipate could lead to a sale of the underperforming Australian operations.

But a $33 million write-off in the value of the Australian business led to a 36 per cent drop in the group's full year net profit to $39 million.

Analysts paid little attention to the accounting adjustment. Excluding such one-off items, a 17.5 per cent increase in operating profit to $71.9 million put the underlying result at the top end of expectations, despite a 1.5 per cent drop in revenue to $2.2 billion.

Their focus was firmly on the performance of the core Red Sheds - and whether efforts by Morrice to stem a slide in operating profit margins had paid off.

Most concluded it was too early to tell whether his strategies would work, but there were positive signs.

"It was a good result - the second half performance showed some real signs of improvement to the business model," Macquarie Equities analyst Warren Doak said.

Results from the Red Sheds showed the effects of rising fuel costs on consumer spending, higher costs and the company's move away from short-term discounting. Trading profit fell 8.4 per cent to $138.6 million. Sales were up 0.4 per cent to $1.4 billion, but same store sales fell 2.5 per cent.

Morrice said the company was just six months into a three-year turnaround project which would see The Warehouse move up the value chain in the style and quality of goods it offered - while staying true to its heritage of bargains, with a "price rollback" campaign promising marked goods were cheaper than those offered by competitors.

Already the company has become more fashion conscious in its apparel selection. "Sales on new season product are going extremely well," said Morrice.

The Warehouse has introduced brand names such as Slazenger, Head and Dunlop to its sports range and secured an exclusive TV and audio deal with Sanyo.

It is also trialling new store layouts, signs and shelving, among other things at a "laboratory store" in Te Rapa, which is performing ahead of expectations. "Expect a gradual improvement - I don't expect to wake up one day and find we've come to the end of the road," said Morrice.

But he said the latest result already contained signs of improvement. Operating margins at the Red Sheds stabilised in the second half after falling in the first, while group operating cash flow was up 73.3 per cent.

The Warehouse Australia's results were better than most analysts had anticipated, with positive cash flows of A$8 million and a trading loss reduced to A$5.4 million, from A$32.2 million.

But Morrice was not forthcoming on plans for the unit. The company has said it is reviewing the unit and is in talks with a number of parties, including Australian discount retailer Millers Retail.

Morrice said discussions were continuing - and until the market was told otherwise it was "business as usual", with the operation on track for breakeven next year.

The Blue Sheds - the company's stationery business - reported a 45 per cent fall in trading profit to $3.9 million in a tough competitive environment.

Morrice said the focus for the next 18 months would be on better use of the store "footprint".

He was confident the company could face up to a tougher market.

"At the end of the day, the moves we are making are to position ourselves incredibly well for any marketplace," he said.

[winner69]

Belg ... the price is going down since the announcement

You could be right .... that presentation was all smoke and mirrors and a load of bull**** etc etc. Cant fool the clever ones eh.

Warehouse Stationery is about as bad as the Australia investment and the Red Sheds are in decline ... I hadn't noticed that the Red Sheds profits have been decline for the last 2 years .... inspite of that massive increase in footprint.

[Sky Tower]

The poor figures over the last two years should not surprise you. People can afford to buy more than junk when the economy is booming


quote:Originally posted by Sky Tower

The announcement should not be a surprise. House prices have been very strong for 2 or 3 years, we have had a very bullish sharemarket for 2 years, and unemployment is less than 4% (economists consider 4% unemployment as full employment).

People are feeling wealthy (whether they are actually wealthier is a moot point) so they don't feel they have to buy the cheapest of the cheap.

The other revolution taking place is that NZers are beginning to appreciate the concept of 'value'. Previously people thought that value was buying the cheapest they possibly could; 'value for money' is a completely different concept. Instead of shopping at WHS, they are shopping at places like Farmers.

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Not a good report coming in next few weeks. Sales are down and people are panicking at head office...


What happened to the panic, B66?

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by Sky Tower

[quote]Originally posted by bongo66

Not a good report coming in next few weeks. Sales are down and people are panicking at head office...


Being a publicly listed company anything likely to affect the share price, and particularly sales figures, should be a closely guarded secret - so why would you know (they are panicking at head office) ?


They were panicking last week. Not sure about this week :D

Cant give my source but he/she told me so. Take from it what you will. It could be wrong, thereby making the informer way smarter than I thought he/she was.




Sounds like B66 shorted the stock and was wanting to talk it down with ficticious source.

Whatever happened to your unbridled enthusiasm for RBD? I recalled you loved it when its sp was high, dumped it when its sp was low and then, completely lost it.

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

They were panicking IC. I was told that and other things.

The news last week was not good. Perhaps WHS head office workers panic easy OR perhaps they have a reason to panic.

Either way I just tell it the way it is and you can make your own mind up if I really do know the office comings and goings.

B:)


Reminds me of your obsession with RBD all over again. You don't have good sources.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

PE @ 17 for a company with nil growth for the last 2 years? Most reatilers are at 8 to 12 ... they are basically 'skimmers' after all. (Apologies to retailers but thats what you do ... buy product and re-sell it.)

What is that Homer says? ... Doh!


Belg - Millers in AU made 10 cents a share 'normal' profit before zillions of writedowns

That puts them on a pe of 10 odd

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by belgarion

PE @ 17 for a company with nil growth for the last 2 years? Most reatilers are at 8 to 12 ... they are basically 'skimmers' after all. (Apologies to retailers but thats what you do ... buy product and re-sell it.)

What is that Homer says? ... Doh!


Belg - Millers in AU made 10 cents a share 'normal' profit before zillions of writedowns

That puts them on a pe of 10 odd


That must mean that Millers HQ staff are panicking. Absolutely and truly panicking.

Hot Dog.

How about KFC?

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Miller's Retail slides to loss of $102m (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10345416)

... Interesting ... the marriage might be closer than I expect ;)


Depending on what paper you read in AUS the story is not the same Miller`s has already closed 18 stores and looking at 80 more to GO of which Warehouse had talks but to NO avail Millers is also talking to other people and said they would DO deals, if not they will close the stores but would not give them away, Nothing is pending for WHS.. [8D]

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

...Nothing is pending for WHS.. [8D]


Agreed. The reality is it's business as usual for WHS in Australia. A bit hard to reason why a declining New Zealand business and an as yet "non" sale/restructure of the Ozzie business values them at close to $4.00.

Having done a lot of hard work I'm not even sure selling the yellow sheds is the best option, albeit it would have an immediate positive impact. Selling should have been done a long time ago (or they should never have purchased in the first place). I wouldn't have been too astounded had they merged, acquired or joint ventured Millers to extract rag trade economies for NZ as well as the ozzie discount business. I guess this is still an option.

[Bling_Bling]

If WHS sells the Aussie operation, then where will WHS growth come from? If they cant make it work in Aussie, then where can they make it work?

[Ru]

Warehouse keeps options open on Millers

The Warehouse has denied a report in the Australian Financial Review that it had failed to reach agreement with Millers Retail on the value of their Australian discount businesses.

"Discussions with all parties are continuing," Warehouse chief financial officer Luke Bunt said yesterday.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10345655

The only decent answer here is to merge or takeover Millers in total. And have the main clothing supply vertically intergrated.

[Bling_Bling]

If WHS took over Millers, watch the share price drop 50 cents or more.

[Binklebonk]

I'm interpreting recent news very positively.

Results
Same store sales are no growth...but huge improvement in margin. I'm intereptreting this as more attributeable to the new positioning strategy that Ian Morrice is driving to get better profitability rather than they're lost momentum. Excessive discounting is many retailers trap.
Aussie is fantastic turnaround. If Millers are slipping backwards while yellow sheds are rebounding then if there is a deal then WHS will be coming out of it a lot better than when it was first one the table.

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

If WHS took over Millers, watch the share price drop 50 cents or more.


If WHS takes over Miller, WHS is history - kaput, finito, dead. But that will not happen - WHS will merge its Australian operations with Miller and sell to private equity interests. Then watch the share climb to at least $6.00 plus in the future.

Dis. Still have half my shareholding.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Binklebonk

....... Same store sales are no growth...but huge improvement in margin. I'm intereptreting this as more attributeable to the new positioning strategy that Ian Morrice is driving to get better profitability rather than they're lost momentum. Excessive discounting is many retailers trap.



I can't work out where the hype around margin improvement in the Red Sheds is coming from (story got better since you use huge improvement)

The word used by WHS re Red Sheds margins is 'stabilised'

From WHS own figures 2nd half operating margin this year was 7.3% of sales ..... same as the same period last year ... so stabilised is correct ... not huge improvement I am afraid mate .... still to be proved I feel

And this what WHS said about Red Sheds ... operating cost pressures, including higher occupancy costs, store operating costs
and changes in sales mix saw an overall reduction in operating margins.

This was over the year but as you see no improvment in H2

[winner69]

Another week passes .... and WHS down 2 cents for the week

Belg .... obviously not many fallen for that whiz bang preso the WHS guys did last week ... pretty pictures, videos and hype don't hide what the numbers say

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Another week passes .... and WHS down 2 cents for the week

Belg .... obviously not many fallen for that whiz bang preso the WHS guys did last week ... pretty pictures, videos and hype don't hide what the numbers say


Yes - make a great deal of it - down 2 cents. It has only risen 30% since middle of May or 96 cents. Ever heard about profit taking?

$6.00 is where the Warehouse will be heading towards once Australia is out of the way.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

If WHS took over Millers, watch the share price drop 50 cents or more.


If WHS takes over Miller, WHS is history - kaput, finito, dead. But that will not happen - WHS will merge its Australian operations with Miller and sell to private equity interests. Then watch the share climb to at least $6.00 plus in the future.

Dis. Still have half my shareholding.


LOL

Sounds good, but where will WHS get their growth from to generate revenue and profit to justify a share price at $6? There are only so many stores WHS can open in a small place like NZ. Maybe a mega store in Steward Island?

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Note Millers are going to writeoff $25M of stock ... probably going to have lots of sales by rhe sound of it

And close 80 stores and make a provision of $30M to cover this

And the discount variety business is deemed to be worthless and and write down the $31M they had it on the books at

Hasn't the WHS done well in stuffing this business in a big way

And of course WHS aren't affected by the actions they have taken to stuff the opposition .. aren't they doing well in Australia?

Hope making big writedowns isn't catchy



Well said, W69!!!!!! Share price then was $3.27 - so gain of 20% in 3 months. You don;t read this stock well, do you? [^]

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling


quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

If WHS took over Millers, watch the share price drop 50 cents or more.


If WHS takes over Miller, WHS is history - kaput, finito, dead. But that will not happen - WHS will merge its Australian operations with Miller and sell to private equity interests. Then watch the share climb to at least $6.00 plus in the future.

Dis. Still have half my shareholding.


LOL

Sounds good, but where will WHS get their growth from to generate revenue and profit to justify a share price at $6? There are only so many stores WHS can open in a small place like NZ. Maybe a mega store in Steward Island?


It's growth in profits that is important, BB. If you think that growth is all about growing stores, then you should move to India - plenty of growth there. Quality, my friend, not quantity.

[winner69]

Icehot - agree its growth in profits that is important ... in NZ .... tell me where or how WHS will be doing that in NZ

Look at the disaster Stationery is and the Red Sheds profitability seems to be down each quarter

Also agree sentiment will change if they ever get around to getting rid of Aust ... and then the hard work comes in delivering the $130M odd profit to support that price.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Icehot - agree its growth in profits that is important ... in NZ .... tell me where or how WHS will be doing that in NZ

Look at the disaster Stationery is and the Red Sheds profitability seems to be down each quarter

Also agree sentiment will change if they ever get around to getting rid of Aust ... and then the hard work comes in delivering the $130M odd profit to support that price.




DOOMSDAY is near just ask W69 which DAY.. [8D]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Note Millers are going to writeoff $25M of stock ... probably going to have lots of sales by rhe sound of it

And close 80 stores and make a provision of $30M to cover this

And the discount variety business is deemed to be worthless and and write down the $31M they had it on the books at

Hasn't the WHS done well in stuffing this business in a big way

And of course WHS aren't affected by the actions they have taken to stuff the opposition .. aren't they doing well in Australia?

Hope making big writedowns isn't catchy



Well said, W69!!!!!! Share price then was $3.27 - so gain of 20% in 3 months. You don;t read this stock well, do you? [^]


Everything correct in that toungue in cheek posting .... it did say they are doing well in Aust and it did say writedowns coming

The only decent eise I have missed out with WHS was when it went from the low 400s to 600 odd in 2003.

Enjoyed what was going to be a short term trade but lasted for years until it reached close to 800 in 2002 .... out since then .... missed the decent rise mentioned above ..... and even though the current company performance is atrocious positive market sentiment, selling Au rumours and price momentum did put another 20% in winners bank account.

Sold out early last week but you must still be in icehot.

Goodluck ... you never know when I might join you when that run to 600 starts

[winner69]

BRICKS .... your mates down at the Medway are missing you ... not been in town for a while?

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Note Millers are going to write-off $25M of stock ... probably going to have lots of sales by rhe sound of it

And close 80 stores and make a provision of $30M to cover this

And the discount variety business is deemed to be worthless and and write down the $31M they had it on the books at

Hasn't the WHS done well in stuffing this business in a big way

And of course WHS aren't affected by the actions they have taken to stuff the opposition .. aren't they doing well in Australia?

Hope making big writedowns isn't catchy



Well said, W69!!!!!! Share price then was $3.27 - so gain of 20% in 3 months. You don;t read this stock well, do you? [^]


Everything correct in that toungue in cheek posting .... it did say they are doing well in Aust and it did say writedowns coming

The only decent eise I have missed out with WHS was when it went from the low 400s to 600 odd in 2003.

Enjoyed what was going to be a short term trade but lasted for years until it reached close to 800 in 2002 .... out since then .... missed the decent rise mentioned above ..... and even though the current company performance is atrocious positive market sentiment, selling Au rumours and price momentum did put another 20% in winners bank account.

Sold out early last week but you must still be in icehot.

Good luck ... you never know when I might join you when that run to 600 starts


IS that our W69 saying he traded WHS stock cant believe.. [8D]

[winner69]

BRICKS ... might even have a shot at that dogs of all dogs Postie Plus

[dirty]

whs should have known better than buying a pup they needed to to Australia but should have taken it one shop at a time a bit like m hill they still only have 3 stores in Canada /// while still learning the market.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

BRICKS ... might even have a shot at that dogs of all dogs Postie Plus


Let me know how you GO,, as for BRICKS never owned THE POSTIE.. [8D]

[Bling_Bling]

Icehot, you still have alot to learn young grasshopper... LOL.

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Icehot, you still have alot to learn young grasshopper... LOL.


I am well into the money on WHS. What about you? :D

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Oh look ... K9's back:)


Who is this guy? Learn to play the story, not the man. You do not seem to like people making money?

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Icehot, you still have alot to learn young grasshopper... LOL.


I am well into the money on WHS. What about you? :D


Have you been bargain hunting and saving money at the "Roll Back" prices? WHS has 30% off plant pots. :D

Bling_Bling plants in pots or just "pot" plants

[Bling_Bling]

Enigma, 30% off pots for plants. Only the marked pots are 30% off. I bought some nice pots a week or so back. Dont know if it is still on sale. Nice pots.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Bling_Bling plants in pots or just "pot" plants


Rogers wants to learn how to be POTTY.. [8D]

[limegreen]

MMMMMM BEER:D

Red Shed dips toe in drink market

26.09.05
By Karen Chan

The Warehouse could be considering beer and wine sales.

The company has trademarked the phrase "The Warehouse Cellars" for beer and other alcoholic drinks, as well as mineral water, fruit juices and other non-alcoholic beverages.

If it goes ahead with such a move - which is not guaranteed by the decision to file a trademark - analysts say it could potentially use alcohol as a loss leader to entice customers into its stores.

That could bring the so-called "two-buck chuck" (as extremely cheap wine is termed in the United States) to New Zealand shores.

The company is casting little light on its plans and is refusing to say whether it is definitely entering the liquor market.

"We have talked openly about the fact we are going down the hypermarket route and we have to be prepared for the opportunities that could go along with that," a spokeswoman told the Herald.

The Warehouse, which has 85 stores around the country, has said it plans to open two hypermarkets - stores which include a full grocery service selling fresh and frozen food - before the end of next year.

Alcohol Advisory Council chief executive Dr Mike MacAvoy said he would not have a problem if The Warehouse operated in the same way as supermarkets and sold alcohol at reasonable prices.

But if it began selling very cheap wine "that would be a matter of concern".

"It's always an issue when prices drop. That's where people will go who want to get plastered."

Selling liquor has become a big section of supermarket revenue since wine sales started in the late 1980s and beer sales in 1999.

ACNielsen figures show supermarkets sold $38 million of wine in 1991, $223 million in 1998 and $500 million last year.

Beer has grown steadily, with supermarkets selling $287 million of the brew last year.

Guy Hallwright, a retail analyst at Forsyth Barr, said the company might consider a liquor sales operation that was not integrated into the planned Red Sheds grocery offering.

"There is probably room for a discount liquor operation. It's not a silly idea."

A fully stand-alone operation would be an expensive proposition, so it made the most sense for the company to adopt a store-within-a-store approach, similar to the convenience store being tried at the company's Te Rapa outlet.

Although supermarkets were already competitive in beer and wine sales, Mr Hallwright said there might be an opportunity with less recognised beer brands that generally were not in supermarkets, or non-brand beers.

There was also potential for The Warehouse to take advantage of cheap Australian wine not yet coming to New Zealand, or being priced more highly here.

There was a chance the company might see beer and wine as a loss-leader to attract customers.

Said Hallwright: "There is the potential for the $2 bottle of wine".

Bottle-shop boom

* 3436: Off-licences in 1995

* 4568: Off-licences last year.

[Bling_Bling]

Possible Corporate Activity for WHS?

Booze decision sparks talk of Red Shed founder selling
02 October 2005
By GREG NINNESS

Confirmation by The Warehouse that it is looking at selling alcohol has increased speculation that its founder, Stephen Tindall, would consider selling out of the company if the price was right.

Sharemarket analysts say the fact that the company is even considering alcohol sales shows how distant Tindall has become from the company he created 23 years ago. Chief executive Ian Morrice is now seen as firmly in control of its strategic direction.

Tindall has made known his strong opposition to the company becoming involved in the alcohol trade.

When the law was changed to let supermarkets sell beer, Tindall made it clear The Warehouse would not stock liquor as long as he was in charge.

"It won't happen while I'm associated... in fact, it's hard to see it ever happening," he told the Evening Post newspaper.

But last week The Warehouse Group's general manager of group strategy Phil Jamieson confirmed "absolutely" that the company was considering selling alcohol and that a decision would be made on a purely commercial basis.

One market analyst who watches the company closely said he believed the day when Tindall may sell could be getting nearer.
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"For quite a while there's been talk that businesses such as Tesco and Walmart are interested in buying Tindall's stake and he's steadfastly refused," said the analyst. "But this separation of Tindall from the business makes that day a lot closer.

"One of our advisers has asked Tindall during private briefing sessions whether his stake is up for sale. The answer has always been no. But in the past six months there's been a change. The language has been more like `not at this price'. I suspect something like this will happen when the share price is closer to $6."

Another source close to the company believed Tindall would consider selling once the share price went above $5.

It closed on Friday at $3.90.

"At the current price he would see it as too much of a loss of value," he said.

The dramatic change in the company's public position on alcohol has helped dispel lingering suspicions that Tindall may be continuing to pull strings at The Warehouse.

Doubts about the extent of his influence have dogged the company since the abrupt departure of former chief executive Greg Muir two years ago.

Neither Tindall nor Muir have ever publicly discussed the reason for the split, but it is widely believed Muir was frustrated at not being given full control over strategic issues such as the firm's expansion into Australia.

The fact that Morrice is considering pulling out of Australia is another indication that he is operating without any of the restraints that may have hampered Muir.

Tindall's involvement is a sensitive issue at The Warehouse, but sources close to the company say its board was determined not to have a repeat of the Muir debacle and that Morrice was given full control from the moment he took up the job a year ago yesterday.

Tindall does not have an executive role at the company and no longer has an office at its North Shore headquarters.

Although he remains a director of the company his voice is one of 10 at the boardroom table.

It was inevitable that Tindall's diminishing role in the company would heighten interest in whether he would sell his shares.

The Tindall Foundation, a charitable organisation established by the Red Shed founder, has a near 22% stake in The Warehouse and Tindall's family interests own nearly 28%, which means Tindall directly or indirectly controls just under half the company's shares.

The remaining shares are widely spread among a large number of smaller shareholders, the largest of them barely passing the 5% threshold.

This would make a takeover offer or merger proposal extremely unlikely unless Tindall agreed to sell, and he may have some good reasons for wanting to eventually do so.

It would be a matter of normal commercial pr

[Binklebonk]

Selling liquor would seem to be a very good opportunity. In supermarkets beer & wine is the biggest grocery category.With there only 2 grocery retailers in NZ now, things could get very interesting if this happens.

[Bling_Bling]

Liquor sales + sale of Yellow Shed = Positive News

[Gryffyn]

A lot might depend on what happens to STs stake. Increased liquidity good. Possible chance for a complete buy-out good. Transfer to one large holder bad.

[icehot]

Above $4.00 this morning and heading towards $6.00.

:D

[craic]

Bought back in with a small stake today at 399cps. Reason for my return is that our paper has been carrying WHS ads suggesting major change ahead without any specific information. Also went there yesterday and noticed staff are out of the red and black colour and into blue? shirts.

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Liquor sales + sale of Yellow Shed = Positive News


How come you are suddenly so positive about the Warehouse?

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Liquor sales + sale of Yellow Shed = Positive News


How come you are suddenly so positive about the Warehouse?


I like the fact that Stephen Tindall is going to sell his stake. It means a major player will come aboard and add value to this puppy. Better still, the possible buyer may even take out the entire company. :)

[craic]

Maybe ST is taking the red shirts with him. Just maybe that is his personal mark and was a condition of his selling. Maybe he is going to re-invent himself and have another crack at the retail market.

[dirty]

made plenty out of the red shed hope it stays in nz and it has a go at the supermarkets and then after bedding that down in around 3 to 5 years goes back into aussie as a hypermarket forget the crap they brought in aussie and flog it for the best price they can.

[icehot]

Above $4.10 and heading higher to $6.00. There is talk that Tesco will make a move on Tindall's stake.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by icehot


Above $4.10 and heading higher to $6.00. There is talk that Tesco will make a move on Tindall's stake.


May the force be with you. :)

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

They were panicking IC. I was told that and other things.

The news last week was not good. Perhaps WHS head office workers panic easy OR perhaps they have a reason to panic.

Either way I just tell it the way it is and you can make your own mind up if I really do know the office comings and goings.

B:)


B66, suggest you catch up with your good sources and sk them where's the panic? :D

[icehot]

Big panic at Warehouse H/O - Tesco getting ready to pounce?

Share price going higher again today. [^]

[Bling_Bling]

Icehot, how reliable are your info or are you just spreading unfounded rumours?

[winner69]

Just like the spike in the share price in Jan/Feb to 435 odd on the Walmart takeover rumour ..... but then this time might be different ... eh icehot ... who obviously is in the know

[icehot]

How would I know?

[CrossTrainer]

WHS is doing well at the moment and I am kicking myself for not buying more at just over $3, which would have shown a nice profit. That's the interest of the stock market - there is always money to be made if you know when to buy and sell.

[CrossTrainer]

Just a thought. If The Warehouse branches out into alcohol sales will the jingle become where everyone gets a bar gain?

[winner69]

Icehot .... whatsup

Tesco walked away ... or just a lull before the storm

[Halebop]

:D You're a funny bugger Winner69.

[marinesalvor]

gotta love WHS holders - spend most of the day creating rumours then complain when they dont come true - who wants to start one about the Carrefour group looking this way?

[Halebop]

My god! Carrefour too? This is going to turn into an auction!

[Bling_Bling]

Graham Hart is on a shopping spree and The Warehouse is on SALE. WHS to sell building products?:D:D



ps: just wanted to contribute to the rumours.

[skinny]

I've heard Aldi are so happy with their Australian expansion they are now looking to enter NZ

http://www.aldi.com/

p.s. this is not good for the Warehouse :D

[marinesalvor]

I think Lord Sainsbury once heard of New Zealand - I guess this means he is looking to takover WHS and pay a huge premium

[icehot]

:DBought more.[^]

[icehot]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Another week passes .... and WHS down 2 cents for the week

Belg .... obviously not many fallen for that whiz bang preso the WHS guys did last week ... pretty pictures, videos and hype don't hide what the numbers say


W69, and WHS went on to put on another 20 cents after this post. You and B66 must be feeling rather peeved that the stock is going to $6.00?

[CrossTrainer]

WHS has held over the $4 mark whilst other stocks high up on the NZX50 have fallen over the last week - Is this a sign of going on to break the $5 barrier?

[madmike]

whs now selling booze....i'll drink to that

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by madmike

whs now selling booze....i'll drink to that

Though it is only a trial with a joint venture company in their Tauranga store. i'm not sure it will add much to the bottom line and I guess they are hoping for more traffic into the stores.

[whatsup]

WHS ann not a great result ,up overall ---marginally, but still bleeding in Aust ,as we know until they ditch the aussie operation NZ will be dragged back!