WHS - Warehouse Group

[Beagle]

Last year, the game they played was to "ask" you accept a reduced pay, therefore you have agreed to it and is a variation to the contract. If you didnt you'll be made redundant. Fletchers have said they'll pay 100% up until yesterday but will review after that. Will be interesting to see what they do with Auckland at level 4 for weeks. Guarantee itll be less than 80% normal pay.
Not for the CEO and other senior management though ;)
P.S. Interesting article from someone who is an employment law expert https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126209523/covid19-employers-cant-just-decide-to-pay-staff-80-in-lockdown-lawyers-say


Mate. Thousands of companies are exactly that now. Under severe financial pressure with zero income for weeks on end.
Fair enough mate but they will be eligible for the resurgence grant $1,500 + $400 per employee and wage subsidy scheme of $600 per week per full time employee so not exactly no income whatsoever. One thing I've always been strong on with my clients is to try and encourage them to put aside some money for a rainy day. Trouble is there's been a lot of rainy days in the last 18 months and a lot more to come...

WHS well positioned though with no debt and a mountain of cash at their last report date.

[850man]

Not for the CEO and other senior management though ;)
P.S. Interesting article from someone who is an employment law expert https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126209523/covid19-employers-cant-just-decide-to-pay-staff-80-in-lockdown-lawyers-say


Fair enough mate but they will be eligible for the resurgence grant $1,500 + $400 per employee and wage subsidy scheme of $600 per week per full time employee so not exactly no income whatsoever. One thing I've always been strong on with my clients is to try and encourage them to put aside some money for a rainy day. Trouble is there's been a lot of rainy days in the last 18 months and a lot more to come...

WHS well positioned though with no debt and a mountain of cash at their last report date.
I hope WHS will be given the same benefits in terms of government handouts and not penalised because of their prudent financial management to date

[bull....]

Whs not far away from short term t/a target of $4

as far as the zoom investment goes i imagine as they grow scale they will add premium services to the offering eg such as consultation even possibly as a loyalty scheme, also the unfunded drugs offer very nice margins to zoom if this becomes a bigger part of the offering.

[Beagle]

Mrs B and I feel very nervous shopping at the supermarket and are annoyed that no supermarket in our area will home deliver unless you are special needs and / or 70 years+ and before anyone suggests click and collect, try and get a time slot !

But good for the Warehouse, they home deliver a range of many hundreds of food items for only $5, halleluiah !
Prices seem pretty good too. I got stuck into ordering lots of stuff today including plenty of treat food :D
https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/food-pets-household/food-drink

[waikare]

Mrs B and I feel very nervous shopping at the supermarket and are annoyed that no supermarket in our area will home deliver unless you are special needs and / or 70 years+ and before anyone suggests click and collect, try and get a time slot !

But good for the Warehouse, they home deliver a range of many hundreds of food items for only $5, halleluiah !
Prices seem pretty good too. I got stuck into ordering lots of stuff today including plenty of treat food :D
https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/food-pets-household/food-drink

Hope you included a few treats for the dog.

[percy]

Mrs B and I feel very nervous shopping at the supermarket and are annoyed that no supermarket in our area will home deliver unless you are special needs and / or 70 years+ and before anyone suggests click and collect, try and get a time slot !

But good for the Warehouse, they home deliver a range of many hundreds of food items for only $5, halleluiah !
Prices seem pretty good too. I got stuck into ordering lots of stuff today including plenty of treat food :D
https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/food-pets-household/food-drink

I shop at our local New World at 7 pm .Very few people there at that time.

[couta1]

I shop at our local New World at 7 pm .Very few people there at that time. If you don't live in Auckland who cares how many people are in there, nice to see the activity.

[Beagle]

I shop at our local New World at 7 pm .Very few people there at that time.

You'll be fine in Chch mate. I agree last thing at night is the safest as there's the least number of people. That said Mrs B shopped at a New World at 9.45 p.m. one night recently and just wanted a few things before it closed at 10.00 p.m. That store was later called a site of interest up to 9.30 p.m. that evening. Dodged a bullet there but its shaken us up a bit to the point where we'd happily pay $50 for the time / petrol and most especially the risk avoided by shopping online so $5 the Warehouse charges is a real bargain I tell ya !

[Playa]

I was checking the locations of interest about 10 days ago and realized I was at my local supermarket at the stated day and time, went and lined up the next day for my test, took 3 hours in the que...was sh*ting myself, test came back negative 2 days later

[percy]

You'll be fine in Chch mate. I agree last thing at night is the safest as there's the least number of people. That said Mrs B shopped at a New World at 9.45 p.m. one night recently and just wanted a few things before it closed at 10.00 p.m. That store was later called a site of interest up to 9.30 p.m. that evening. Dodged a bullet there but its shaken us up a bit to the point where we'd happily pay $50 for the time / petrol and most especially the risk avoided by shopping online so $5 the Warehouse charges is a real bargain I tell ya !

Yes pretty safe down here.I note in the New World and even out walking, people in our area are being very careful and sensible.
I have used WHS online.Excellent.
I think as investors we must make sure the companies we invest are good online traders.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I was checking the locations of interest about 10 days ago and realized I was at my local supermarket at the stated day and time, went and lined up the next day for my test, took 3 hours in the que...was sh*ting myself, test came back negative 2 days later

I hope you are still isolating and getting your day 12 test in 2 days time? Covid doesn’t always show up in first or day 5 test (as viral load hasn’t built up high enough yet).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Mrs B and I feel very nervous shopping at the supermarket and are annoyed that no supermarket in our area will home deliver unless you are special needs and / or 70 years+ and before anyone suggests click and collect, try and get a time slot !

But good for the Warehouse, they home deliver a range of many hundreds of food items for only $5, halleluiah !
Prices seem pretty good too. I got stuck into ordering lots of stuff today including plenty of treat food :D
https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/food-pets-household/food-drink

a shame they aren’t delivering bread and milk as “essential items” - looks like they are sticking to non-perishable/long dated items.

[Beagle]

a shame they aren’t delivering bread and milk as “essential items” - looks like they are sticking to non-perishable/long dated items.

Yeah I agree. We get these every few days from our local dairy who only allow 1 person in at a time, ((I still wear a face mask though).

I included some badly needed office supplies into the same food order today so $5 to assemble all that lot together and deliver it is quite a deal !
It'll be interesting to see how long delivery takes.

[Bob50]

Our local Warehouse usually sells Butter, pies, bacon, milk and bread all fairly priced- but not now via click and collect. Shame it may have introduced customers to this side of things.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yeah I agree. We get these every few days from our local dairy who only allow 1 person in at a time, ((I still wear a face mask though).

I included some badly needed office supplies into the same food order today so $5 to assemble all that lot together and deliver it is quite a deal !
It'll be interesting to see how long delivery takes.

so big question: is WHS still using NZ post / courierpost to deliver? Or have they managed to setup an internal system with their currently spare staff to actually make deliveries within short driving range of stores?

[Habits]

TA forming good pattern ready for breakout above current SP

[winner69]

We’ll see a multi year high next week — beating the 386 in March — and after that it will push on to 400 plus in quick time

Some time next year 500 on the cards

[Beagle]

so big question: is WHS still using NZ post / courierpost to deliver? Or have they managed to setup an internal system with their currently spare staff to actually make deliveries within short driving range of stores? That's what they're doing. They have work to do on their delivery systems. (In saying that, we are in lockdown level 4 in Auckland so getting anything delivered in the current environment is nice)


We’ll see a multi year high next week — beating the 386 in March — and after that it will push on to 400 plus in quick time

Some time next year 500 on the cards

Agree 100% ! Also, NZX50 inclusion beckons in the not too distant future :t_up:

[Dlownz]

That's what they're doing. They have work to do on their delivery systems. (In saying that, we are in lockdown level 4 in Auckland so getting anything delivered in the current environment is nice)



Agree 100% ! Also, NZX50 inclusion beckons in the not too distant future :t_up:
While I support the share price rising and would be happily surprised I don't think it will happen in the next couple of weeks end of September maybe...
Reasons.
1. September is generally a quite month for the market. Warehouse includes
2 retail and covid in nz is still a uncertainty
Yes it helped last time but this time there are different winds in the air.
I'm still in a agreement this is a great hold. But I'm still thinking of a hovering price of around 3.60 - 3.80. Maybe now it's 3.70-3.90

[Habits]

While I support the share price rising and would be happily surprised I don't think it will happen in the next couple of weeks end of September maybe...
Reasons.
1. September is generally a quite month for the market. Warehouse includes
2 retail and covid in nz is still a uncertainty
Yes it helped last time but this time there are different winds in the air.
I'm still in a agreement this is a great hold. But I'm still thinking of a hovering price of around 3.60 - 3.80. Maybe now it's 3.70-3.90

1. US sharemarkets will be up this month on quarter and window dressing by funds, the cheer will rub off
2. FY21 results announcement 29 Sept something to watch with interest :t_up:

[krb]

Government providing alert level update tomorrow - should be confirmation that WHS properties will be able to fully reopen this week as normal at level 2 conditions for most of the country (South Island: surely, rest of North island outside Auckland: hopefully).

[winner69]

Government providing alert level update tomorrow - should be confirmation that WHS properties will be able to fully reopen this week as normal at level 2 conditions for most of the country (South Island: surely, rest of North island outside Auckland: hopefully).

And the punters will be out in force and stores will be busy as

[Teatree]

Except in Auckland where the shops will still be shut. What % of NZ live in auck?

[krb]

Except in Auckland where the shops will still be shut. What % of NZ live in auck?

Auckland region under lockdown is roughly 34% of country by population.

[bull....]

update on guidance for the year this week? usually get them before yr end announcement if its materially different to previous guidance

[winner69]

update on guidance for the year this week? usually get them before yr end announcement if its materially different to previous guidance

Should know this week how much the more in 'more than 160m' actually is

[Beagle]

I think management will simply keep quiet at this stage. All they've said before is profit will be more than $160m so in terms of the listing rules there is no need to update the market even if net profit is $200m plus. 29 September is only ~ 3 weeks away.

[alokdhir]

Either it would have come by mid August as trading update ...or it will come as results now ...So 29th Sept is the day to look for ...nothing before . Hold tight

[winner69]

I think management will simply keep quiet at this stage. All they've said before is profit will be more than $160m so in terms of the listing rules there is no need to update the market even if net profit is $200m plus. 29 September is only ~ 3 weeks away.

My understanding if disclosures would say they would be compelled to us now if its going to be 200m

Not saying something suggests somewhere between 160m and 175m - based on their guidance and market expectations

[Panda-NZ-]

Hopefully no more acquistitions or "special initiatives" without a compelling reason.

Simply provide a special dividend please.

[Habits]

Hopefully no more acquistitions or "special initiatives" without a compelling reason.

Simply provide a special dividend please.

Agreed!!!!

[Rawz]

Hopefully they find another Noel lemming or torpedo 7 type acquisition. Very successful those were.

[Southern Lad]

My understanding if disclosures would say they would be compelled to us now if its going to be 200m

Not saying something suggests somewhere between 160m and 175m - based on their guidance and market expectations

For anyone interested, here’s a link to NZX Continuous Disclosure Guidelines:

https://nzx-prod-c84t3un4.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ZiU9XQ2U5vZVwkcrdajTdu8A?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3D%22Guidance%20N ote%20-%20Continuous%20Disclosure%20-%2010%20Dec%202020%20%2528Clean%2529%20Updated.pdf %22%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-8%27%27Guidance%2520Note%2520-%2520Continuous%2520Disclosure%2520-%252010%2520Dec%25202020%2520%2528Clean%2529%2520U pdated.pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA2NFHJDRLNWWMDHPT%2F20210906%2Fap-southeast-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20210906T092457Z&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=20b15a8181a4f4a42c990af62e82759580f606f4 ca1dd2a50cd60622ac3a4d35

From a quick skim, if the information would move the share price by more than 10% then the information is material, if the movement would be between 5% and 10% it may we’ll be material. Therefore, I think it’s very safe to assume that the normalised FY21 NPAT won’t be as high as $200m. I’m with Winner in so much as I would be surprised if it was any higher than $175m given that there has been no market update.

[Waltzing]

how often is this strictly policed and what the market decides to do after the fact can simply be waived away. Else the price of a share would always be fairly valued.

Often the prices simply over shots on supply and demand or expectation of another good year after the current one comes in with a Beat the Street.

[Beagle]

Guidance for FY21

As a result of the strength of trading through to the end of Q3, and the
expectation that Q4 FY21 Group sales will be similar to Q3 FY21, adjusted
NPAT for the full year is expected to exceed $160 million, subject to no
material changes in trading conditions. Gross margin levels are consistent
with those achieved during the first half of the financial year.

Emphasis added. I believe it is reasonable to infer that seeing as this guidance was issued quite some time before year end they were very confident the net profit would comfortably exceed that figure, therefore market expectations are that they will do exactly that and there is therefore no need to update the market.

Reported profit for the half year was $55m. Adjusted profit adding back payment of wage subsidy and redundancy costs was $111m. Average expectation of reported profit from market screener is $110m = average normalized profit of $166m.
We'll know the result soon enough and everyone has had plenty of time over lockdown to position themselves for where they see it.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/

[Waltzing]

looks ready to break to the up side

[winner69]

looks ready to break to the up side

Agree with you there waltzingman

New multi year high today or tomorrow .... and then 4 bucks and onwards and upwards

Only an announcement that 'more than $160m' is actually less than $160m will stuff this plan up ..... what that's not likely

[ratkin]

Currently big delay in online deliveries

Warehouse should set up their own delivery network, cut out NZ post etc
Would not cost much, the drivers would be self employed couriers.
They have enough stores in the various divisions to make it workable

[Rawz]

Currently big delay in online deliveries

Warehouse should set up their own delivery network, cut out NZ post etc
Would not cost much, the drivers would be self employed couriers.
They have enough stores in the various divisions to make it workable

It's not as easy as you may think. Otherwise everyone would do it. Freightways not exactly making excess profits.
When businesses start going away from their knitting, i.e. a retailer getting into freight.. probably weigh on earnings in the end.

I ordered a printer from Noel Lemming last week and it got delivered in 2 days. Very reasonable I thought.

If WHS does $170m I will be very pleased and it will be freakin cheap at today's prices.

[peat]

looks ready to break to the up side

yes it does.
but I suspect a spike and retreat myself.
could be wrong just sayin what I think lookin at the chart.

(discl. out now)

[Beagle]

If they can do normalized after tax profit of $173.4m that's exactly 50 cents per share eps and put's them (@$3.80) on a FY21 PE of just 7.6 which is crazy cheap compared to any other retailer on the NZX.

[bull....]

If they can do normalized after tax profit of $173.4m that's exactly 50 cents per share eps and put's them (@$3.80) on a FY21 PE of just 7.6 which is crazy cheap compared to any other retailer on the NZX.

and with a div yield in the double digits , if confirmed at end year i see a big re-rate on the news. it would be the biggest div payer from a sound company available. every tom, dick and harry on the planet probably want in lol esp those housewife's from japan who love there yield

[Rawz]

If they can do normalized after tax profit of $173.4m that's exactly 50 cents per share eps and put's them (@$3.80) on a FY21 PE of just 7.6 which is crazy cheap compared to any other retailer on the NZX.

It’s super cheap, nobody can deny.
MHJ cheaper thou

[winner69]

If they can do normalized after tax profit of $173.4m that's exactly 50 cents per share eps and put's them (@$3.80) on a FY21 PE of just 7.6 which is crazy cheap compared to any other retailer on the NZX.

HLG share price should be over 10 bucks

Sector comparisons below. HLG PE is a guess of this years eps, RBD is included because its part of Snoopy's retail allocation in his portfolio. The number on the right is what WHS share price would be if on same multiple

BUT MICHAEL IS CHEAPEST OF HALL

PE
WHS 7.6 ....$3.80
BGR 20.3 ....$10.15
MHJ 7.0 ...$3.50
HLG 11.8 ...$5.90
RBD 36.2 ...$18.10

[LaserEyeKiwi]

HLG share price should be over 10 bucks

Sector comparisons below. HLG PE is a guess of this years eps, RBD is included because its part of Snoopy's retail allocation in his portfolio. The number on the right is what WHS share price would be if on same multiple

BUR MICHAEL IS CHEAPEST OF HALL

PE
WHS 7.6 ....$3.80
BGR 20.3 ....$10.15
MHJ 7.0 ...$3.50
HLG 11.8 ...$5.90
RBD 36.2 ...$18.10

MHJ is very cheap and I’m sure would be on the potential acquisition list for WHS if not for the Hill family controlling almost half the shares (although not sure WHS would want something with a large international component).

[Rawz]

Not saying WHS and MHJ should be in anyone’s long term portfolio but surely should be in a short term portfolio. Not like they can trade any cheaper.. couldn’t go to 6 P/e’s….? Right?

So little downside.. vs reasonable upside + dividends

[Beagle]

Okay...reluctantly...my 2 cents worth.

MHJ had a shocking track record before Covid came along. They sell shiny things that by and large people don't need but simply make people feel better so its only natural that people will spend up large on frivolous shiny things to make themselves feel better to boost their morale. I believe the house brand watches they sell are absolute rubbish.
I think MHJ have benefitted more disproportionally than other retailers, certainly their financial results once Covid started have looked dramatically transformed compared to pre covid. They have a heck of a lot of stores in Australia compared to elsewhere and most of those stores are currently in lockdown and many have been for several months.

Comparing apples and oranges is what comparing WHS and MHJ is.

WHS sell basic items that people need and they have no stores overseas.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not saying WHS and MHJ should be in anyone’s long term portfolio but surely should be in a short term portfolio. Not like they can trade any cheaper.. couldn’t go to 6 P/e’s….? Right?

So little downside.. vs reasonable upside + dividends

There are plenty of investors who are refusing to get into retail stocks while the threat of lockdowns remain. These people will only get back into it after extended lockdowns are a thing of the past. Of course once that time comes they would have missed out on the likely rally in retail stocks.

All I will say is that New Zealand and Australia are on track with their current vaccine rollouts to achieve near full vaccination (eg the ~90% of the eligible population who aren’t stupid enough to refuse one) within 10 weeks. I think the implications of that eventuality are obvious in terms of the future likelihood and length of lockdowns.

NZ has another ~4.2 million doses to give out to finish vaccinating the 12+ population, and is averaging over 70k per day currently. 4.2 million / 70k is 60 days, so technically should be over 90% eligible vaccinated by the end of October, but I imagine going from 80% -> 90% will take a longer time as you start to get into the “vaccine hesitant” & denial morons at that stage.

[Rawz]

I think you are on the money LEK. Would give you a reputation point but apparently have to spread it around sorry.

COVID is good for retail as it has turned out. The 2020 lockdowns produced bumper FY21 profits. Not sure why 2021 lockdowns wont produced bumper FY22 profits?????

If the WHS multiple goes up I reckon it will drag MHJ up with it so no worries MHJ investors (not that it cant do it on its on merit despite what master beagle says).

W69 says RBD is retail stock? omg i am overweight retail (WHS, MHJ, HLG, RBD) is TRA retail? If so I am severally lacking diversification :ohmy:

[winner69]

I think you are on the money LEK. Would give you a reputation point but apparently have to spread it around sorry.

COVID is good for retail as it has turned out. The 2020 lockdowns produced bumper FY21 profits. Not sure why 2021 lockdowns wont produced bumper FY22 profits?????

If the WHS multiple goes up I reckon it will drag MHJ up with it so no worries MHJ investors (not that it cant do it on its on merit despite what master beagle says).

W69 says RBD is retail stock? omg i am overweight retail (WHS, MHJ, HLG, RBD) is TRA retail? If so I am severally lacking diversification :ohmy:

No, TRA isa fintech…much more respectable

[Joshuatree]

I'm hearing there may not be so much easy spending money available this time around and that Kiwis went big on buying stuff during and after last lockdown and have less disposable income now.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'm hearing there may not be so much easy spending money available this time around and that Kiwis went big on buying stuff during and after last lockdown and have less disposable income now.

That doesn’t seem to make any sense on the face of it: retail spending has been elevated since last years lockdown for over 14 months straight. Why would it not resume its strong performance after this lockdown when people haven’t been able to spend any of their disposable income?

[Beagle]

$9 Billion a year is normally spent by Kiwi's travelling overseas. Interest rates are close to all time lows so there's more disposable money that people normally make on their mortgage payments there too.

With the obvious exception of most of the people on here we are a nation of spenders and almost all that money for the foreseeable future will be spent on retail in New Zealand. Probably can't go wrong with any of the retail stocks for the foreseeable future but for what its worth I prefer WHS, HLG and TRA.

Delivery of food update. I ordered about $150 of food items and one stationary item on Monday evening last week.
One of my best mates also ordered a similar quantity of food. Importantly no other food outlet we know of would delivery grocery items for either of us in lockdown level 4, (most supermarkets appear to have rationed this to 70 years old plus and people with special needs).

For both my friend and I all items were delivered within 5 working days, most within 3 working days. I don't think that's too bad in the circumstances.

[Joshuatree]

That would be nice,happy holder since taking up some in the selldown a while back.Just anecdotal sharing what I've heard around my sphere,by no means accurate overall.The other thing is int rates,the only way from here is up.

[winner69]

Close 386 …equals multi-year high

Tomorrow will see that new high

[Panda-NZ-]

Click and collect that $4 price tomorow.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Does anyone have any more information about what exactly the WHS growth strategy is that refers to the “building & trade” sector?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/8fa880fd-e8e3-4956-8372-29eb9bd8bdbe
12934

[bull....]

I'm hearing there may not be so much easy spending money available this time around and that Kiwis went big on buying stuff during and after last lockdown and have less disposable income now.

for bar ranked retailers yesterday as the biggest beneficiaries of lock-down easing's hence kmd , whs , bgr all up yesterday

[Beagle]

Does anyone have any more information about what exactly the WHS growth strategy is that refers to the “building & trade” sector?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/8fa880fd-e8e3-4956-8372-29eb9bd8bdbe
12934

Sorry I don't but its common knowledge the margins in the building materials industry are egregious so some extra competition leveraging WHS's distribution channels would certainly be welcomed by many builders.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This is setting up for confirmation of a monthly bull flag, leading to the potential of further large moves over the coming months (refer to my previous posts). If we get confirmation then $4.50 should be on the cards at minimum. Daily, weekly and monthly uptrends intact. Playing trends on monthly timeframes just requires patience for them to play out.

I see two scenarios as most likely:

1. We have a bull flag pullback from the double top (likely on the weekly chart), before breaking the resistance and confirming monthly bull flag. In my view any pullpack from resistance will be for buying (unless news or red flags develop e.g. increased selling volume)

2. Breaking straight through the $3.86 resistance to confirm bull flag

A double top is a possible scenario to be aware of, however my view would be that this is only really possible with a negative news or sentiment event.

Disc: large long term position and trading around the edges.

12936

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sorry I don't but its common knowledge the margins in the building materials industry are egregious so some extra competition leveraging WHS's distribution channels would certainly be welcomed by many builders.

yes I agree. Was curious to know what channel they actually operate in already. Maybe it’s for built in appliances in new builds (ovens/dishwashers/heat pumps) that WHS can source through its existing supply chain for Noel Leeming. Would love to see WHS get into the duopoly building supplies products like insulation and plasterboard etc using their international supply chain.

[winner69]

Sorry I don't but its common knowledge the margins in the building materials industry are egregious so some extra competition leveraging WHS's distribution channels would certainly be welcomed by many builders.

They stocked paint once ……unsuccesfully

Have a mini hardware shop at the moment ….tools/sealants etc etc. maybe broadening that.

Good luck to them if they go down the building supplies route

[iceman]

ANL Singapore announcing this morning a "high season surcharge" of $600 per 40' import container with other shipping lines expected to follow. A 40 footer from China now edging towards $13k, up from $2k a few years ago. Importers will need to push these huge additional costs into prices.

[Rawz]

They stocked paint once ……unsuccesfully

Good luck to them if they go down the building supplies route

Yes.. would rather see them go further down the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) rabbit hole. That's what they know and what they do well. Costco bulk food offering a better option for WHS imo

[winner69]

The garden centre they have at Lyall Bay can’t be a great money spinner ….never seen anybody in it and the state of most plants suggest they don’t move stock much ..and have a fair bit of wastage

[Beagle]

ANL Singapore announcing this morning a "high season surcharge" of $600 per 40' import container with other shipping lines expected to follow. A 40 footer from China now edging towards $13k, up from $2k a few years ago. Importers will need to push these huge additional costs into prices.

Yes those costs will be passed on to consumers and its not really an issue for WHS because their stuff is dirt cheap. I almost feel embarrassed shopping there, stuff is ludicrously cheap.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

ANL Singapore announcing this morning a "high season surcharge" of $600 per 40' import container with other shipping lines expected to follow. A 40 footer from China now edging towards $13k, up from $2k a few years ago. Importers will need to push these huge additional costs into prices.

makes jewelers look like a great retail area in the current environment - can fit an entire years inventory needs on one air cargo flight, minimal shipping costs when people shop online, and the needed lease footprint and staffing requirements are tiny in the event of lockdown closures. One must think WHS had a good reason though to remove jewelry section from its stores (I guess it did require an additional staff member to always be manning it). I still think it’s a good area they should consider expanding into as another retail chain by way of acquisition (Walker and Hall would be good).

[winner69]

makes jewelers look like a great retail area in the current environment - can fit an entire years inventory needs on one air cargo flight, minimal shipping costs when people shop online, and the needed lease footprint and staffing requirements are tiny in the event of lockdown closures. One must think WHS had a good reason though to remove jewelry section from its stores (I guess it did require an additional staff member to always be manning it). I still think it’s a good area they should consider expanding into as another retail chain by way of acquisition (Walker and Hall would be good).

You'd think that the Normans would be 'advising' TWG about jewellery - they being master jewellery retailers

[Rawz]

Normans probably 'advised' WHS to close up their instore jewelry kiosks. Not enough room for two discount, no frills jewelers, in this country. Pascoe's got that space covered

[Habits]

Currently 3.88 up 2c today... small but significant move

[winner69]

Currently 3.88 up 2c today... small but significant move

WOW its 3.88

HIGHEST PRICE SINCE NOVEMBER 2013

That's a long long time ago

[Beagle]

Yeap, fresh multi year high but they're just starting to get their mojo back in my opinion. Onward and upward to $7 again :t_up:

[iceman]

Yes those costs will be passed on to consumers and its not really an issue for WHS because their stuff is dirt cheap. I almost feel embarrassed shopping there, stuff is ludicrously cheap.

Somehow I don't think you represent the average WHS customer mate !!

[Waltzing]

"Onward and upward to $7 again"

:ohmy:

[Beagle]

Somehow I don't think you represent the average WHS customer mate !!

I slumming it in a Holden now...just need it to age 20 years and collect dents everywhere and I'll fit right in :)

[Habits]

Somehow I don't think you represent the average WHS customer mate !!

How do you think Beagle got so rich, shopping at WHS certainly helps

[nztx]

"Onward and upward to $7 again"

:ohmy:

I'd buy that too :)

[nztx]

I slumming it in a Holden now...just need it to age 20 years and collect dents everywhere and I'll fit right in :)


I hear that good money is paid for well aged Holden motoring pieces, dents & all :)

[Waltzing]

:scared:

7 dollars? Gosh or as that sporty chap in the sky broadband advert says... "Phwoof"

[Beagle]

I slumming it in a Holden now...just need it to age 20 years and collect dents everywhere and I'll fit right in :)


I hear that good money is paid for well aged Holden motoring pieces, dents & all :)

I just had a great idea. I could switch cars with my wife and speed the 20 year process up to 2 months :lol:

[nztx]

I just had a great idea. I could switch cars with my wide and speed the 20 year process up to 2 months :lol:

A wider Holden may attract more dents & dings IMO :)

[Beagle]

fixed that post now lol

[Joshuatree]

That doesn’t seem to make any sense on the face of it: retail spending has been elevated since last years lockdown for over 14 months straight. Why would it not resume its strong performance after this lockdown when people haven’t been able to spend any of their disposable income?

Maybe they overspent last time. Looks like an inflexion point in this chart, see below, bounce coming?


"New data from Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) show card spending is beginning to bounce back from the previous week.
BNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, says, “There are tentative signs that the bounce back from the lockdown is underway, with card spending up 12 per cent on last week. It is now sitting at 37 per cent below pre-lockdown levels."




Read more » (https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/H763AfboDRZSTllNS2892TB1rw/PaLYUvsLgiCuQCuCrKQ9xA)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Maybe they overspent last time. Looks like an inflexion point in this chart, see below, bounce coming?


"New data from Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) show card spending is beginning to bounce back from the previous week.
BNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, says, “There are tentative signs that the bounce back from the lockdown is underway, with card spending up 12 per cent on last week. It is now sitting at 37 per cent below pre-lockdown levels."




Read more » (https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/H763AfboDRZSTllNS2892TB1rw/PaLYUvsLgiCuQCuCrKQ9xA)

34% of the country is still in level 4 lockdown, while the other 66% of the country was still in level 3/4 lockdown for the period covered in that card data. Retail spending is best judged by when entire country is back to at least level 2. Even then, card spending includes hospitality/accommodation etc which will still be negatively impacted by level 2 restrictions.

[Joshuatree]

Yep,keep our eyes on that chart
Looks like an inflexion point in that chart, , bounce coming hopefully.

[Waltzing]

Mr B has been the first to warn of future price movements to the upside. This should surely focus minds on the areas of the business likely to generate a lift in EBITDA.

[Beagle]

Mr B has been the first to warn of future price movements to the upside. This should surely focus minds on the areas of the business likely to generate a lift in EBITDA.

Thanks but to be fair many other experienced investors have noted this as a great buy.

I am really looking forward to the result on 29th and getting a steer on how this is going to grow further in FY22. I think the analysts have this one well and truly wrong with their FY22 average estimate of $110m. I foresee the so called one-off effect of Covid that is likely to generate more than $170m normalized profit in FY21 as being enduring for many years and that's what's going to be part of the driver behind price appreciation in the years ahead as well as Torpedo 7 gaining more critical mass as more people embrace the Kiwi outdoors and the market.com gaining momentum. Store within a store to start gaining more momentum in FY22 and future years too as well as some store rationalization with their WALT of just 4 years and they enhance their digital footprint.

[winner69]

Torpedo 7 to open store in Invercargill soon

That'll help their growth Beagle

[Waltzing]

A welcome gang busting prediction.

new store covers a city population of 60,000 hardy souls.

Stunning location and gateway to hopefully one day a booming tourism location...although lets hope QST gets back there in a few years time.

Still see i taking another 3 years for the international visitors to clear the border in any numbers.

I do know a local Irainian wo has cleared MIQ to central europe germany 3 times in the last 12 months who has stayed virus free.

[Beagle]

A welcome gang busting prediction.

new store covers a city population of 60,000 hardy souls.

Stunning location and gateway to hopefully one day a booming tourism location...although lets hope QST gets back there in a few years time.

Still see i taking another 3 years for the international visitors to clear the border in any numbers.

I do know a local Irainian wo has cleared MIQ to central europe germany 3 times in the last 12 months who has stayed virus free.

I grew up as a little wee puppy down there, awesome place. Mrs B is keen to go back and get up close and personal with a close encounter...I'm not brave enough but will definitely come along and watch...just need to make sure she updates her will first lol. https://www.sharkexperience.co.nz/

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Torpedo 7 to open store in Invercargill soon

That'll help their growth Beagle

“Torpedo7 chief operating officer Garth Sutherland confirmed its first physical store in Invercargill would be located in Leven St, a 1200sqm space previously occupied by Warehouse Stationery which closed this year. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125553511/warehouse-stationary-proposes-closing-invercargill-store)‘

This is exactly what I suspect is also happening in Lower Hutt: Warehouse Stationary is probably relocating into queensgate warehouse (which is currently undergoing an extensive renovation) leaving a large empty space for the first Torpedo7 to open in Wellington (other than the one in Porirua)

Excellent example of WHS expanding its retail offerings in new locations, without needing to use any more retail footprint.

[Louloubell]

All makes good sense he. Am I happy holder.

[Sideshow Bob]

Definitely has been a gap in their store network. Good potential and market for them.

Makes sense to use an existing store within the wider company, but a little disappointing not part of the inner city development in Invers. The Warehouse and Farmers currently slightly out of the centre, behind E.Hayes (where the Worlds Fastest Indian lives). Farmers is going into the new development, so Warehouse, Noel Leeming and now T7, along with Kathmandu will still be in the old location, 5-6 blocks away.

Latest — Invercargill Central Ltd (https://www.invercargillcentral.nz/latest)

[winner69]

Definitely has been a gap in their store network. Good potential and market for them.

Makes sense to use an existing store within the wider company, but a little disappointing not part of the inner city development in Invers. The Warehouse and Farmers currently slightly out of the centre, behind E.Hayes (where the Worlds Fastest Indian lives). Farmers is going into the new development, so Warehouse, Noel Leeming and now T7, along with Kathmandu will still be in the old location, 5-6 blocks away.

Latest — Invercargill Central Ltd (https://www.invercargillcentral.nz/latest)

Seems new development is actually (as they once said) only a place for the youth to hang out in.

I’d rather go shopping where warehouse, Leeming, Kathmandu and T7 are

Mind you Glassons are going in new development

[BlackPeter]

Torpedo 7 to open store in Invercargill soon

That'll help their growth Beagle

You recon Tim Shadbolt will call it quits and disappear on his new Torpedo 7 sourced bike?

[nztx]

You recon Tim Shadbolt will call it quits and disappear on his new Torpedo 7 sourced bike?


may need an escort to keep all the other traffic out of the way if media coverage of antics in the Southern most
Local Busy Body chamber are anything to go by .. ;)

Wonder if WHS have a model with large inflatable self protection pads & bubbles, stabiliser wheels for the unstable & dottery
and flashing warning lights built in especially for certain patrons ? ;)

obviously these wont be too suitable for towing any sort of concrete mixer (a model miniature tucked in a pocket may suffice) .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Nothing like an election in Invercargill.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humours_of_an_Election


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humours_of_an_Election#/media/File:William_Hogarth_029.jpg

[winner69]

A few years ago our Nick was talking to a group of people (me included of course) about the future of business etc etc

Besides his omnichannel ecosystem blah blah he did mention the ‘bionic company’

Maybe he’s developed his thinking and heading that way

Boston Consulting love talking about the Bionic Company and bionic transformation

https://www.bcg.com/en-au/capabilities/digital-technology-data/bionic-company

TWG is on a roll …go TWG

[Rawz]

Thought WHS supposed to be at 4 bucks now?

1 year chart is a pretty picture

[STr]

A few years ago our Nick was talking to a group of people (me included of course) about the future of business etc etc

Besides his omnichannel ecosystem blah blah he did mention the ‘bionic company’

Maybe he’s developed his thinking and heading that way


Boston Consulting love talking about the Bionic Company and bionic transformation

https://www.bcg.com/en-au/capabilities/digital-technology-data/bionic-company

TWG is on a roll …go TWG

I remember a few of those briefings back then - when Nick had surrounded himself with his US exec team bought to NZ who were taking their plays straight out of the Amazon playbook - bionic attributes, data mining customer data (remember the infamous Cambridge data exposure), 30 min guaranteed on-line delivery etc etc - it was a suppliers dream with big budgets, big dreams and questionable compromises. Nick is last man standing with perhaps a few of his supporters "found out" - which bought the business time to get the basics sorted to enable it to grow and now keep growing. I wonder what next for the CEO ..... and when

[winner69]

I remember a few of those briefings back then - when Nick had surrounded himself with his US exec team bought to NZ who were taking their plays straight out of the Amazon playbook - bionic attributes, data mining customer data (remember the infamous Cambridge data exposure), 30 min guaranteed on-line delivery etc etc - it was a suppliers dream with big budgets, big dreams and questionable compromises. Nick is last man standing with perhaps a few of his supporters "found out" - which bought the business time to get the basics sorted to enable it to grow and now keep growing. I wonder what next for the CEO ..... and when

That Nck is a bit weird eh

[winner69]

Thanks but to be fair many other experienced investors have noted this as a great buy.

I am really looking forward to the result on 29th and getting a steer on how this is going to grow further in FY22. I think the analysts have this one well and truly wrong with their FY22 average estimate of $110m. I foresee the so called one-off effect of Covid that is likely to generate more than $170m normalized profit in FY21 as being enduring for many years and that's what's going to be part of the driver behind price appreciation in the years ahead as well as Torpedo 7 gaining more critical mass as more people embrace the Kiwi outdoors and the market.com gaining momentum. Store within a store to start gaining more momentum in FY22 and future years too as well as some store rationalization with their WALT of just 4 years and they enhance their digital footprint.

Analysts probably subscribing to the thesis doing the rounds in that this time post lockdown bounce won’t be as robust as previous and that looking forward once we all get vaccinated there won’t be any more lockdowns but there will be many cases of covid through out the country and consumers will be a bit worried and above no more government subsidies to struggling businesses and there will be casualties etc etc …in other words the next year might be a bit tough in retail ……and several feel that margins can’t expand forever (current expansion a bit of a one off)

Who knows what’ll happen in retail in this new world of living with covid ……and the market seems a bit wary as well (WHS and HLG in particular)

[Beagle]

Analysts probably subscribing to the thesis doing the rounds in that this time post lockdown bounce won’t be as robust as previous and that looking forward once we all get vaccinated there won’t be any more lockdowns but there will be many cases of covid through out the country and consumers will be a bit worried and above no more government subsidies to struggling businesses and there will be casualties etc etc …in other words the next year might be a bit tough in retail ……and several feel that margins can’t expand forever (current expansion a bit of a one off)

Who knows what’ll happen in retail in this new world of living with covid ……and the market seems a bit wary as well (WHS and HLG in particular)

Fair point and consumers will be facing headwinds from higher interest rates too and I don't think shipping costs are going to normalize anytime soon either. That said I think the WHS are best placed of the retailers to manage their shipping costs due to their scale and tougher times will drive people more towards value buying decisions so WHS is well placed to gain market share.

[Rawz]

That’s a good post W69, definitely food for thought. I just can’t help coming back to the simple equation:

no travel= good for retail.

And now that I think about it, when we get to the, ‘living with COVID’ stage, who is going to risk traveling? Imagine getting COVID on holiday to Europe or North America or Asia. No thanks. Travel probably depressed for years and years until we get to, herd immunity stage.

[Beagle]

That’s a good post W69, definitely food for thought. I just can’t help coming back to the simple equation:

no travel= good for retail.

And now that I think about it, when we get to the, ‘living with COVID’ stage, who is going to risk traveling? Imagine getting COVID on holiday to Europe or North America or Asia. No thanks. Travel probably depressed for years and years until we get to, herd immunity stage.

Well said, I couldn't agree more. $9 Billion a year that used to be spent on international travel is going to be spend somewhere and a fair portion of that will be on retail generally and specifically new outdoor experiences that embrace the great outdoors in N.Z. (Torpedo 7).

[winner69]

Well said, I couldn't agree more. $9 Billion a year that used to be spent on international travel is going to be spend somewhere and a fair portion of that will be on retail generally and specifically new outdoor experiences that embrace the great outdoors in N.Z. (Torpedo 7).

Playing around with Stats NZ Retail sales data (exc motor related and accommodation) I've come up with 'retail sales in NZ are currently running at around $2 billion (annual) more (+2.5%) than where we would have expected them to be if we had no covid impacts'

Excitment due from lockdown release and no overseas travel ...who knows


Pretty good eh

[Waltzing]

"and the market seems a bit wary as well'

and that lets you in at a very good P/E

after all WHS is not really a quick trade stock.

Beside some travel opening up there wont be a rush for the border in the next 12 months to travel widely.

Those who do travel will be with PPE and very careful probably with pooled information from those who have made it there and back.

Like in the old days of travel many centuries past.

Remember Dubrovnik . It has its own MIQ facilities from the 1600's onward.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/videos/travel/2021/07/27/dubrovnik-croatia-reconnect-quests-world-of-wonder-spc.cnn

[Beagle]

Playing around with Stats NZ Retail sales data (exc motor related and accommodation) I've come up with 'retail sales in NZ are currently running at around $2 billion (annual) more (+2.5%) than where we would have expected them to be if we had no covid impacts'

Excitment due from lockdown release and no overseas travel ...who knows


Pretty good eh

It is good and set to continue. Don't think my pilgrimage / trip of a lifetime to see the Gardyne Castle in Scotland where my Mum's ancestors grew up will be happening any year soon. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=9NqOw7H0&id=E84381BA342FBE0F99344E12861CFBB4521499B5&thid=OIP.9NqOw7H0VS91w3W9OQUBmgHaFj&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.f 4da8ec3b1f4552f75c375bd3905019a%3frik%3dtZkUUrT7HI YSTg%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252fs0.geograph.org.uk %252fgeophotos%252f03%252f43%252f80%252f3438081_52 e7fc3b.jpg%26ehk%3dosy%252bH32FA2MStnsd2EExGT%252b %252fDiNoAVvJozgidJwuHGg%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dIm gRaw%26r%3d0&exph=480&expw=640&q=gardyne+castle&simid=607989098050708736&FORM=IRPRST&ck=DF2D08A20922563CCD9BA644438FEC13&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
so there's plenty of domestic spending coming in the years ahead from this old mutt.

This is on my bucket list too, you done this trip yet mate ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MCLa9bcmaA

[Muse]

That’s a good post W69, definitely food for thought. I just can’t help coming back to the simple equation:

no travel= good for retail.

And now that I think about it, when we get to the, ‘living with COVID’ stage, who is going to risk traveling? Imagine getting COVID on holiday to Europe or North America or Asia. No thanks. Travel probably depressed for years and years until we get to, herd immunity stage.

Good point - catching covid in America and needing healthcare there - how grim would that be?

Thanks for the depressing thought

[Mudfish]

From my small snapshot of New Zealand, I just see people getting out and about doing stuff. It's just awesome. As an example, some of my quiet local trout fishing rivers have become really popular with all sorts of people, young, old, experienced and newbies. Our local mountain bike park and tramping areas also are going off. I know the lastest lockdown is a challenge but overall people seem to be embracing adventure. To do this, requires stuff. And IMO people seem happy to buy stuff to support their adventures. I actually think it's healthy for everyone and as a consequence, WHS earning too. Bring ng on the summer.

[winner69]

It is good and set to continue. Don't think my pilgrimage / trip of a lifetime to see the Gardyne Castle in Scotland where my Mum's ancestors grew up will be happening any year soon. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=9NqOw7H0&id=E84381BA342FBE0F99344E12861CFBB4521499B5&thid=OIP.9NqOw7H0VS91w3W9OQUBmgHaFj&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.f 4da8ec3b1f4552f75c375bd3905019a%3frik%3dtZkUUrT7HI YSTg%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252fs0.geograph.org.uk %252fgeophotos%252f03%252f43%252f80%252f3438081_52 e7fc3b.jpg%26ehk%3dosy%252bH32FA2MStnsd2EExGT%252b %252fDiNoAVvJozgidJwuHGg%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dIm gRaw%26r%3d0&exph=480&expw=640&q=gardyne+castle&simid=607989098050708736&FORM=IRPRST&ck=DF2D08A20922563CCD9BA644438FEC13&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
so there's plenty of domestic spending coming in the years ahead from this old mutt.

This is on my bucket list too, you done this trip yet mate ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MCLa9bcmaA

You’ll get to that castle one day …..I’ve been near it but not to it

Strangely never really been attracted to Switzerland

Iceland pretty good though. Been to summit of Eyjafjallajökull in a Jeep. If one went there now this is a spectacular sight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM9P_xG0dcU

[allfromacell]

The shops are absolutely fuming in Wellington, feels like Christmas Eve.

[winner69]

The shops are absolutely fuming in Wellington, feels like Christmas Eve.

Probably driven by FOMO

Who wants to go shopping on Christmas Eve with all the shelves empty

[Beagle]

Very cool video Winner, thanks for sharing. Need to start spending my WHS dividends on outdoor equipment at Torpedo 7. WOW some of their E Bikes are 50% off, that's nuts ! https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/shop/bike/electric-bikes

[Panda-NZ-]

Very cool video Winner, thanks for sharing. Need to start spending my WHS dividends on outdoor equipment at Torpedo 7. WOW some of their E Bikes are 50% off, that's nuts ! https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/shop/bike/electric-bikes

Classic yet modern/futuristic at the same time, looks good.

[winner69]

Very cool video Winner, thanks for sharing. Need to start spending my WHS dividends on outdoor equipment at Torpedo 7. WOW some of their E Bikes are 50% off, that's nuts ! https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/shop/bike/electric-bikes

This one looks pretty good ….esp if going to do the cycle trails ..reputable dealer

https://www.evocycles.co.nz/Product/359022/2021-trek-powerfly-4-29-lithium-greytrek-black

[Waltzing]

Get a real bike and do the hard work its better for you....:eek2:

harden up ..... :D

if you have a heart condition ok but otherwise its a cope out..

[Beagle]

https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/T7B1EN9V2FA/title/t7b1en9v2fa180 Might start with this and if I find I'm "into it" upgrade to some fancy bit of kit later on.

[winner69]

https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/T7B1EN9V2FA/title/t7b1en9v2fa180 Might start with this and if I find I'm "into it" upgrade to some fancy bit of kit later on.

Need the lycra as well

[winner69]

https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/T7B1EN9V2FA/title/t7b1en9v2fa180 Might start with this and if I find I'm "into it" upgrade to some fancy bit of kit later on.

Service plans cost a fair bit

[Beagle]

Need the lycra as well

LOL The fat Beagle in lycra...that would be a freighting sight lol

[Dotbond]

Get a real bike and do the hard work its better for you....:eek2:

harden up ..... :D

if you have a heart condition ok but otherwise its a cope out..
No heart condition here but I love my eBike. Still get a great workout but see more countryside doing it.

[Snoopy]

LOL The fat Beagle in lycra...that would be a freighting sight lol

And a frightening sight as well? But maybe less so if not all the 'freight' that was put on at the start end of the bike ride was still hanging off the body at the finish of the bike trip ;-)?

SNOOPY

[winner69]

One consequence of investing in WHS is that Google who whoever does these things make Warehouse ads come up on the screen

Like today's one

thewarehouse Better products without costing the earth

Warehouse Group still doing greemwashing stuff I see

[LoungeLizzard]

One consequence of investing in WHS is that Google who whoever does these things make Warehouse ads come up on the screen

Like today's one

thewarehouse Better products without costing the earth

Warehouse Group still doing greemwashing stuff I see

Yep, if you think it's good for the planet to buy plastic crap freighted from China that ends up in our landfills after a few minutes of "endless fun" then go ahead - knock yourself out.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

One consequence of investing in WHS is that Google who whoever does these things make Warehouse ads come up on the screen

Like today's one

thewarehouse Better products without costing the earth

Warehouse Group still doing greemwashing stuff I see

I hope you aren't clicking those ads mate. Each click costs us shareholders and reduces the dividend.

[BlackPeter]

I hope you aren't clicking those ads mate. Each click costs us shareholders and reduces the dividend.

Well, that's only true if he clicks without buying ...

Lets hope he is buying lots of the good warehouse products - just join him and click along ... :) :

[BlackPeter]

Yep, if you think it's good for the planet to buy plastic crap freighted from China that ends up in our landfills after a few minutes of "endless fun" then go ahead - knock yourself out.

True, some of the warehouse packaging is awful - bought recently a really great and good quality cell phone holder for the car, however didn't realize it comes with a ton of not even recyclable plastic as packaging.

Many of their products however are quite good (and even sell without packaging :): We've been yesterday in town to buy some clothes for a toddler. Left some of the specialist stores pretty disillusioned and found afterwards in the Warehouse good looking and good quality childrens gear.

Discl: happy holder;

[Hawkeye]

I was talking to someone about WHS the other day and they think that some might try to to takeover WHS, what do you think?

[Beagle]

True, some of the warehouse packaging is awful - bought recently a really great and good quality cell phone holder for the car, however didn't realize it comes with a ton of not even recyclable plastic as packaging.

Many of their products however are quite good (and even sell without packaging :): We've been yesterday in town to buy some clothes for a toddler. Left some of the specialist stores pretty disillusioned and found afterwards in the Warehouse good looking and good quality childrens gear.

Discl: happy holder;

I can attest to the fact that their twin / family packs of Tim Tams and Shrewsbury biscuit's are really awesome.

[Waltzing]

"Tim Tams and Shrewsbury biscuit's"

dangerous , very dangerous , lethal .... :eek2: ... very high octane ...

[Dlownz]

I was talking to someone about WHS the other day and they think that some might try to to takeover WHS, what do you think?

Unless tindell sells. No chance

[Beagle]

"Tim Tams and Shrewsbury biscuit's"

dangerous , very dangerous , lethal .... :eek2: ... very high octane ...

Someone has to put in the hard yards doing this valuable dangerous market research lol
I did get a 30 minute walk in yesterday. Hopefully the first of many this Spring.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just one more week of level 4 in Auckland “In principle” (eg depends on mystery cases continuing to decrease). Other lockdown impacted stocks bounced on the announcement - WHS a bit of an outlier ending down on the day.

[bull....]

see the analysts have been steadily upgrading warehouse. est of div in my opinion 15 - 20c with a special. special being as an insurance to having a bigger div now but only having to reduce it later due to maybe a slight pull back in retail spend

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Impressive Briscoes result today. Particularly impressed they were able to build their inventory so well ahead of the big Xmas period.

[Rawz]

Impressive Briscoes result today. Particularly impressed they were able to build their inventory so well ahead of the big Xmas period.

Yes, clearly expecting a huge christmas trading period. Which I feel in my bones will be a record for the ages.

WHS and MHJ for the win.

[sb9]

Staff at a Warehouse distribution centre in Auckland have felt unsafe leaving work after dark this week after a woman's body was found nearby.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/manurewa-homicide-workers-scared-for-safety-after-womans-body-found-nearby/WTHPGKAHYRME4R7SLYVYHKOSM4/

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This doesn’t exactly inspire confidence: WHS chief sales officer resigns effectively immediately:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379274


The Warehouse Group Chief Sales Officer Tim Edwards steps down from his role

The Warehouse Group confirms that Chief Sales Officer Tim Edwards has resigned from his role, with effect from 16 September 2021.

Tim has been with The Warehouse Group since 2009, in the roles of CEO Noel Leeming and CEO Torpedo7 before taking on his current role.

During his time with The Warehouse Group, the Noel Leeming brand has grown significantly, achieving over $1 billion in annual sales in FY20 and is New Zealand's authority in appliances, technology, and services. Noel Leeming has also grown its Services and Commercial businesses over the last few years.

A year ago Tim moved to be the Group’s Chief Sales Officer and since that time has supported the business through a period of significant transformation.

The Warehouse Group CEO Nick Grayston has wished Tim well and noted that the group sales function is in a strong position to ensure there is continuity in delivering to TWG customers.

[winner69]

This doesn’t exactly inspire confidence: WHS chief sales officer resigns effectively immediately:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379274

Either fired or joining a competitor

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Either fired or joining a competitor

I hope it’s because he joined a competitor.

[STr]

I hope it’s because he joined a competitor.

Another one bites the dust ….

[Panda-NZ-]

Many people choose to value different things after the pandemic.

[winner69]

Another one bites the dust ….

Yep, and He had only been in that role a year …hmm

[sb9]

I hope it’s because he joined a competitor.

That’s how I interpret it too, wonder who’s that competitor might be.

[winner69]

That’s how I interpret it too, wonder who’s that competitor might be.

Worked for Harvey Norman years ago …not likely

Is Aussie bred I think

[Teatree]

Maybe Nick is a prick to work for. Maybe he wanted to stay a CEO. Maybe sakes are mot as good as exoected. Could be many reasons but very quick departure all the same

[Panda-NZ-]

Maybe Nick is a prick to work for. Maybe he wanted to stay a CEO. Maybe sakes are mot as good as exoected. Could be many reasons but very quick departure all the same

There can only be one CEO in this business... *lobs off head*.

[Waltzing]

MR B says 7 dollars.... now that would give Briscoes a run for its money.

lets face it this stock is not the glam yet.

Maybe he got bored...and not paid as much as he wanted.

[peat]

yes it does.
but I suspect a spike and retreat myself.
could be wrong just sayin what I think lookin at the chart.

(discl. out now)

post was from the 7th
so far it has done what I said. Short term stuff sure... but candles are still bearish so far. ...and there is that divergence.

12975

[Rawz]

post was from the 7th
so far it has done what I said. Short term stuff sure... but candles are still bearish so far. ...and there is that divergence.

12975

We heading to $3.60 ya reckon?

[peat]

We heading to $3.60 ya reckon?

I guess it will find support - there is a lot esp at 3.50 - Theoretically its still bullish above 3.45 - I'm just wary of diagonals on a 5th wave.

and Beagle is always right (virtually) (not sarcastic in case its taken that way)
JTH awesome analysis for the longer time frame too!

[Beagle]

Briscoes this week proved it can be done (facing up to all the challenges of logistics, supply chain e.t.c.) and talk was of net profit for the current year exceeding last year's bumper result and amounting to about $85m which on 222.5m shares = 38.2 cents per share. If it meets forecast its trading on a forward PE of 18.3

WHS if they make $173m normalized profit to be announced on 29 September will have eps of 50 cps at at today's closing price of $3.80 trades on a PE of just 7.6

I would argue as times get tougher consumers will head down the road to make more value based buying decisions and "look through" Briscoes so called sales and specials.

[nztx]

Briscoes this week proved it can be done (facing up to all the challenges of logistics, supply chain e.t.c.) and talk was of net profit for the current year exceeding last year's bumper result and amounting to about $85m which on 222.5m shares = 38.2 cents per share. If it meets forecast its trading on a forward PE of 18.3

WHS if they make $173m normalized profit to be announced on 29 September will have eps of 50 cps at at today's closing price of $3.80 trades on a PE of just 7.6

I would argue as times get tougher consumers will head down the road to make more value based buying decisions and "look through" Briscoes so called sales and specials.


FOUR Dollar would feel good & not be unattainable for WHS when looking at other Retailer's SP runs ;)

If we compare with BGP, then does mean the comparable range extends up to 4 & 1/2 Dollar .. ?

[emearg]

I would argue as times get tougher consumers will head down the road to make more value based buying decisions and "look through" Briscoes so called sales and specials.

You should be right, but as JCPenny and their new CEO learnt in 2012 the psychology suggests you're not.
https://hbr.org/2012/05/can-there-ever-be-a-fair-price

They lost close to a billion dollars and their new CEO became their old CEO looking for a job.

But I agree with you...apart from when I going shopping apparently.

[winner69]

You should be right, but as JCPenny and their new CEO learnt in 2012 the psychology suggests you're not.
https://hbr.org/2012/05/can-there-ever-be-a-fair-price

They lost close to a billion dollars and their new CEO became their old CEO looking for a job.

But I agree with you...apart from when I going shopping apparently.

And the down hill slide didnt end there

last year J C Penney went bankrupt

Another great retailer in Sears followed that path as well

Hope our Nick didn’t learn too much at Sears :eek2: …though he still talks like a Sears exec

[Zaphod]

You should be right, but as JCPenny and their new CEO learnt in 2012 the psychology suggests you're not.
https://hbr.org/2012/05/can-there-ever-be-a-fair-price

They lost close to a billion dollars and their new CEO became their old CEO looking for a job.

But I agree with you...apart from when I going shopping apparently.

Despite our literal addition to sales-induced dopamine releases, how sustainable is this model in the long-term though?

I note in the article that "Jcpenney’s own data suggest that customers’ “hunger” for sales has increased dramatically over time, such that discounts of 60% are now required to get shoppers to buy, up from 38% 10 years ago."

[STr]

And the down hill slide didnt end there

last year J C Penney went bankrupt

Another great retailer in Sears followed that path as well

Hope our Nick didn’t learn too much at Sears :eek2: …though he still talks like a Sears exec

Another observation. There has been a lot of comparisons across the retail chains - especially Briscoe to WHS. The main difference I see is Briscoes understands their customer, the average Kiwi. WHS and their offshore egos still think Amazon is their largest competitor and that the big Red Sheds are a necessary evil. Kiwi shopping habits are changing, but never underestimate the importance of bricks and mortar and a large community presence. Know your customer.

Disc: I have WHS in my portfolio …. No Briscoe though as I missed that boat. Perhaps a little bit jealous

[Beagle]

FOUR Dollar would feel good & not be unattainable for WHS when looking at other Retailer's SP runs ;)

If we compare with BGP, then does mean the comparable range extends up to 4 & 1/2 Dollar .. ?

I think it doesn't pay to be too prescriptive with price targets and dates pertaining to them. Just keep holding these as the deep value shares they are, have lots and lots of patience, keep banking the dividends and enjoying the uptrend. That's what I'm doing.

[Waltzing]

"3.60"

have to be a terrible report.

but if the stock does get there you wont have much time to buy.

now MR B has predicted long term 7 dollars. :t_up:

[winner69]

I would argue as times get tougher consumers will head down the road to make more value based buying decisions ......

Assume you are talking about the Red Sheds

I've heard that argument so many times over the years but it seems based on misconceptions and not backed up by the numbers

Red Sheds over the last 16 years have grown sales at 0.9% pa (best year before this year 4.7% as well as several negative years)

Those 16 years have seen the ups and downs of the economic cycle - and interesting post GFC 2008 through 2011 Red Sheds sales declined every year. Tough times they said and even though NZ retail sales remained pretty positive there wasn't many 'heading down the road to make more value based decisions' at the Red Sheds

But then Red Shed sales might be up about 5% this year (and v 2019) just to prove that this time things are truly different

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Assume you are talking about the Red Sheds

I've heard that argument so many times over the years but it seems based on misconceptions and not backed up by the numbers

Red Sheds over the last 16 years have grown sales at 0.9% pa (best year before this year 4.7% as well as several negative years)

Those 16 years have seen the ups and downs of the economic cycle - and interesting post GFC 2008 through 2011 Red Sheds sales declined every year. Tough times they said and even though NZ retail sales remained pretty positive there wasn't many 'heading down the road to make more value based decisions' at the Red Sheds

But then Red Shed sales might be up about 5% this year (and v 2019) just to prove that this time things are truly different

Don’t forget there has been a significant reduction in Red Shed floor space, so red shed sales per Square foot have risen fairly quickly over the last few years (a big push from management for higher “density” sales) This is because all the Warehouse Stationary store within a store sales in red sheds are not included in Red Shed revenue, and they take up a significant amount of floor space. So this has pushed up sales per square foot for red shed obviously given revenue / square footage has increased with the 25 new SWAS locations (another 20 yet to be added).

Effectively red sheds have been downsized significantly while still managing to grow revenue. (Part of the reason operating profits have increased so dramatically with the big reduction in operating costs for this endeavor)

[Beagle]

Latest Warehouse advertising in Te Reo extoling the virtues of the Warehouse being a merchant that cares about being both "sustainable and affordable" hits all the right ESG buttons so is bound to impress the target market.

[BlackPeter]

Latest Warehouse advertising in Te Reo extoling the virtues of the Warehouse being a merchant that cares about being both "sustainable and affordable" hits all the right ESG buttons so is bound to impress the target market.

That's a worry - hope they don't follow on the tracks of another well discussed "pink" company, shall we?

I know, different industry, but they started as well with Te Reo, being sustainable and a funny colour scheme.

But the good thing is, the WHS doesn't process milk ... yet :);

[winner69]

I’ve always respected the work of Aswath Damodaran whose a finance professor and investor

He recently wrote a good piece on ESG. Is well worth a read.

The ESG Movement: The "Goodness" Gravy Train Rolls On!

Last year, I wrote a post on ESG and explained why I was skeptical about the claims made by advocates about the benefits it would bring to companies, investors and society. In the year since, I have heard from many on the topic, and while there are some who agreed with me on the internal inconsistencies in its arguments, there were quite a few who disagreed with me. In keeping with my belief that you learn more by engaging with those who disagree with you, than those who do, I have tried my best to see things through the eyes of ESG true believers, and I must confess that the more I look at ESG, the more convinced I become that "there is no there there". More than ever, I believe that ESG is not just a mistake that will cost companies and investors money, while making the world worse off, but that it create more harm than good for society.

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-esg-movement-goodness-gravy-train.html

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I’ve always respected the work of Aswath Damodaran whose a finance professor and investor

He recently wrote a good piece on ESG. Is well worth a read.

The ESG Movement: The "Goodness" Gravy Train Rolls On!

Last year, I wrote a post on ESG and explained why I was skeptical about the claims made by advocates about the benefits it would bring to companies, investors and society. In the year since, I have heard from many on the topic, and while there are some who agreed with me on the internal inconsistencies in its arguments, there were quite a few who disagreed with me. In keeping with my belief that you learn more by engaging with those who disagree with you, than those who do, I have tried my best to see things through the eyes of ESG true believers, and I must confess that the more I look at ESG, the more convinced I become that "there is no there there". More than ever, I believe that ESG is not just a mistake that will cost companies and investors money, while making the world worse off, but that it create more harm than good for society.

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-esg-movement-goodness-gravy-train.html

I read that piece earlier this week. In general it reinforces my view that for consumer facing companies (like WHS certainly is) - ESG is a “hygiene” issue - eg it’s a minimum requirement that won’t bring extra rewards to the company, but not having a strong ESG effort will have a detrimental impact on revenue as some consumers won’t shop with you out of principle.

[winner69]

I read that piece earlier this week. In general it reinforces my view that for consumer facing companies (like WHS certainly is) - ESG is a “hygiene” issue - eg it’s a minimum requirement that won’t bring extra rewards to the company, but not having a strong ESG effort will have a detrimental impact on revenue as some consumers won’t shop with you out of principle.

Maybe so but majority of consumers see through ESG 'efforts' for what they are ...and often have an 'adverse' impact

Some interesting insights in this US study

The Corporate Social Mind
https://www.thecorporatesocialmind.com/researchusa

[winner69]

This bit from Aswath is good -

On a personal note, I have always found that the people that I've known who do good, spend very little time talking about being good or lecturing other people on goodness. I would extend that perspective to companies and investment funds as well, and I reserve my skepticism for those companies that spend hundreds of pages of their annual filings telling me how much "good" they do.

Hey BlackPeter - Synlait come to light eh ....and HLG had pages and pages about People, Planet etc etc

Warehouse going that way --- enough said

[Beagle]

Maybe ESG is an acronym for Environmental & Social Grandstanding ;)

[LoungeLizzard]

No amount of greenwashing could ever make WHS an ethical investment. To invest or not invest is down to the individual, but don't kid yourself about the nature of the business.

[Beagle]

Briscoes has another one of their so called sales and sells a customer an electric jug at a so called deeply discounted price e.g. https://www.briscoes.co.nz/product/1049778/zip-2slice-satin-finish-stainless-steel-toaster/
WHS sells you a house brand jug for about half the price and make no claim that its deeply discounted. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/living-co-metal-trim-kettle-1.7-litre-black/R2637720.html

Which company is a fair and reasonable retailer selling products to families that they need at a fair price and which company is engaging in disingenuous, perhaps even unethical behavior ?

Before you claim that they're different brands I can tell you that if you take the time to compare any number of different items in Briscoes at their so called sale prices with any number of similar things in the WHS at their regular prices it will become clear who is the fairer and more ethical retailer and who is meeting families needs in a fair and ethical way.

[LoungeLizzard]

Briscoes has another one of their so called sales and sells a customer an electric jug at a so called deeply discounted price e.g. https://www.briscoes.co.nz/product/1049778/zip-2slice-satin-finish-stainless-steel-toaster/
WHS sells you a house brand jug for about half the price and make no claim that its deeply discounted. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/living-co-metal-trim-kettle-1.7-litre-black/R2637720.html

Which company is a fair and reasonable retailer selling products to families that they need at a fair price and which company is engaging in disingenuous, perhaps even unethical behavior ?

Before you claim that they're different brands I can tell you that if you take the time to compare any number of different items in Briscoes at their so called sale prices with any number of similar things in the WHS at their regular prices it will become clear who is the fairer and more ethical retailer and who is meeting families needs in a fair and ethical way.

Perhaps you can do a comparison of the % of Briscoe's merchandise ends up in the local landfill compared to WHS's?

[percy]

Briscoes has another one of their so called sales and sells a customer an electric jug at a so called deeply discounted price e.g. https://www.briscoes.co.nz/product/1049778/zip-2slice-satin-finish-stainless-steel-toaster/
WHS sells you a house brand jug for about half the price and make no claim that its deeply discounted. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/living-co-metal-trim-kettle-1.7-litre-black/R2637720.html

Which company is a fair and reasonable retailer selling products to families that they need at a fair price and which company is engaging in disingenuous, perhaps even unethical behavior ?

Before you claim that they're different brands I can tell you that if you take the time to compare any number of different items in Briscoes at their so called sale prices with any number of similar things in the WHS at their regular prices it will become clear who is the fairer and more ethical retailer and who is meeting families needs in a fair and ethical way.
Both know their target market and do well .
Briscoes has a history, under Rod Duke of knowing their market,and channels to supply their market, better than WHS.
WHS has failed far too often trying to be a supermarket,a financial group,an Australian retailer etc,while Rod Duke has stayed foccused.WHS still have a lot of leases,store closures issues to work their way through.

[winner69]

I was horrified the other day when I saw Hallensteins had gear at 73% OFF

Almost immoral

[percy]

I was horrified the other day when I saw Hallensteins had gear at 73% OFF

Almost immoral

They are not a registered charity...lol.

[Beagle]

Perhaps you can do a comparison of the % of Briscoe's merchandise ends up in the local landfill compared to WHS's?

Doubt there would be much difference. My last Briscoes experience last year. No brand name small vacuum cleaner for my home office, modest sized bit of no big name brand gear made in China, retail was $699 at Briscoes and they claimed it was "on sale" at $199. Anyone who paid $699 would need their head examined. Sheffield small vacuum cleaner from Mitre Ten of all places, (using airpoints to purchase was $89) and still works fine. Both about the same size. Some companies engage in disingenuous and unethical sales practices and others don't.
Who's to say a Homebrand WHS electric jug won't last the same length of time as one twice the price, allegedly on sale at Briscoes, certainly not you or I.

[LoungeLizzard]

Doubt there would be much difference. My last Briscoes experience last year. No brand name small vacuum cleaner for my office, tiny piece of junk made in China, retail was $699 at Briscoes and they claimed it was "on sale" at $199. Anyone who paid $699 would need their head examined. Sheffield small vacuum cleaner from Mitre Ten of all places, (using airpoints to purchase was $89) and still works fine. Both about the same size. Some companies engage in disingenuous and unethical sales practices and others don't.
But isn't "Making China Great Again - one piece of junk at a time," WHS's motto? You can engage in moral relativism all you like, but sometimes a Beagle needs to stop digging....

[Beagle]

Both know their target market and do well .
Briscoes has a history, under Rod Duke of knowing their market,and channels to supply their market, better than WHS.
WHS has failed far too often trying to be a supermarket,a financial group,an Australian retailer etc,while Rod Duke has stayed foccused.WHS still have a lot of leases,store closures issues to work their way through.

Its the age old priced for perfection argument though isn't it mate. Are their better gains to be had backing the underdog with plenty of room for improvement on a (soon to be historical) PE of 7 or the retailer priced for perfection on a forward PE of 18 ?

For years people on here told me RYM was the best pick and about 6 years ago I called it as priced too much for absolute perfection and its underperformed the rest of the sector ever since.

I reckon there's more money backing underdogs on dirt cheap metrics with plenty of room for improvement.

[Beagle]

But isn't "Making China Great Again - one piece of junk at a time," WHS's motto? You can engage in moral relativism all you like, but sometimes a Beagle needs to stop digging....

"Helping Kiwi's live better every day" http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/361487/332946.pdf See pages 44 & 45.

[winner69]

"Helping Kiwi's live better every day" http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/361487/332946.pdf See pages 44 & 45.

Probably the Tindall effect

A large chunk of divies paid go to his Foundation

[STr]

Its the age old priced for perfection argument though isn't it mate. Are their better gains to be had backing the underdog with plenty of room for improvement on a (soon to be historical) PE of 7 or the retailer priced for perfection on a forward PE of 18 ?

For years people on here told me RYM was the best pick and about 6 years ago I called it as priced too much for absolute perfection and its underperformed the rest of the sector ever since.

I reckon there's more money backing underdogs on dirt cheap metrics with plenty of room for improvement.

So backing KMD @ around 45 should be a great underdog to back :confused:

[percy]

Its the age old priced for perfection argument though isn't it mate. Are their better gains to be had backing the underdog with plenty of room for improvement on a (soon to be historical) PE of 7 or the retailer priced for perfection on a forward PE of 18 ?

For years people on here told me RYM was the best pick and about 6 years ago I called it as priced too much for absolute perfection and its underperformed the rest of the sector ever since.

I reckon there's more money backing underdogs on dirt cheap metrics with plenty of room for improvement.

Best of breed.MFT,EBO,FPH,FRE,and POT,just keep on performing.
The mongrels ?..lol.

[LoungeLizzard]

"Helping Kiwi's live better every day" http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/361487/332946.pdf See pages 44 & 45.

Heartwarming stuff. Probably a cut and paste job from the Oil industry or big tobacco....

[Beagle]

Heartwarming stuff. Probably a cut and paste job from the Oil industry or big tobacco....

Nice cyclical try but it doesn't hold water...
51 pages is too big to cut and paste https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/application/files/8416/1455/7572/The_Warehouse_Ethical_Sourcing_Report_20211.pdf
I'll spice that up with some stuff about Diversity and Inclusion and Te Reo just for you https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/corporate-citizenship/diversity-inclusion
Of course you're free to believe whatever you like. I believe they provide essential basics to ordinary Kiwi families at a very affordable and fair price.

[winner69]

All that stuff must cost zillions - formulating the strategy and rules, continuous monitoring, reporting, ticking the boxes, taking action again those that don't comply etc etc ...and then producing that report

Wonder how many zillions spent ...and what return on the 'investment'

Suppose shareholders pay for this

[Habits]

All that stuff must cost zillions - formulating the strategy and rules, continuous monitoring, reporting, ticking the boxes, taking action again those that don't comply etc etc ...and then producing that report

Wonder how many zillions spent ...and what return on the 'investment'

Suppose shareholders pay for this

Do you know what helped sir stephen tindall to establish The Warehouse succesfully... by investing big on a comprehensive computer system to manage inventory and was ahead of his competitors

[winner69]

Do you know what helped sir stephen tindall to establish The Warehouse succesfully... by investing big on a comprehensive computer system to manage inventory and was ahead of his competitors

Was a good move …..and gave him a competitive advantage

Was a bit embarrassing though when they had to own up the computer was counting the stock wrong and they had to write off zillions.

[winner69]

Habits. …you remember when they sold grog

[Beagle]

All that stuff must cost zillions - formulating the strategy and rules, continuous monitoring, reporting, ticking the boxes, taking action again those that don't comply etc etc ...and then producing that report

Wonder how many zillions spent ...and what return on the 'investment'

Suppose shareholders pay for this
I hear ya that ESG is costly...but the pure capitalist cynic in me thinks that whether all this ESG stuff is just greenwashing / environmental & social grandstanding or whether it has more substance to it doesn't really matter. At the end of the day customers lap this stuff up like a lamb desperate for a feed of its mothers milk and the net cost is therefore negligible provided the company doesn't do a Synlait on us and go really "extremist".

[Habits]

Habits. …you remember when they sold grog

No I dont actually winner but I bet there is a yarn in that bottle

[winner69]

One good thing WHS does is support the Future Director scheme

Caroline Rainsford Should bring valuable insights to the Board while developing her skills in directorship.

[Beagle]

They gave $250,000 to Women's refuge a couple of months ago, pretty decent sized donation and they also (whatever one's views on this are) repaid the wage subsidy of (from memory) over $50m which they legally could have kept. In terms of having a corporate social conscience they don't look too bad to me. Certainly not "unethical" like one newbie poster opined yesterday.

[LoungeLizzard]

They gave $250,000 to Women's refuge a couple of months ago, pretty decent sized donation and they also (whatever one's views on this are) repaid the wage subsidy of (from memory) over $50m which they legally could have kept. In terms of having a corporate social conscience they don't look too bad to me. Certainly not "unethical" like one newbie poster opined yesterday.
I guess that would be me.
Giving money to charities is classic greenwashing from companies that are fundamentally unethical in terms of their effect on the planet and the source of their products. Macdonalds give lot's of money to kids charities but that doesn't change the fact that it's "product" is fundamentally bad for kids. Or the Oil industry saying they are all about sustainability. I could care less about what you choose to do with your money but don't kid yourself that WHS is an ethical company.

[Panda-NZ-]

What does briscoes do for the environment, lgbt inclusion and a host of other issues?

have they repaid their wage subsidy yet.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I guess that would be me.
Giving money to charities is classic greenwashing from companies that are fundamentally unethical in terms of their effect on the planet and the source of their products. Macdonalds give lot's of money to kids charities but that doesn't change the fact that it's "product" is fundamentally bad for kids. Or the Oil industry saying they are all about sustainability. I could care less about what you choose to do with your money but don't kid yourself that WHS is an ethical company.

not sure exactly what your beef with WHS is, but everything is relative and I doubt you would find many that would disagree with the statement that WHS is more ethical than many other large retailers in NZ. Yes a large amount of their stock is made in Asia, but that is no different to any other major houseware/clothing/electronics retailer. On the other measures (treatment of its staff, charitable initiatives, local environmental impact) it appears to be doing well, and the fact a large chunk of its profits generated end up going to the tindall foundation is something that other large retailers probably don’t have (does rod duke have a large charity effort?)

[Beat the Bank]

I cannot bring myself to support Rod Duke despite his business being a good investment, indeed best in category. They do not hold a trusted position or show community involvement like MFT and FPH for example. They are just a balance sheet with yet another sale each week. I think there is a real opportunity if WHS can position itself as a good corporate citizen with honest pricing. Their stores are so widely distributed and a mainstay of small town NZ. If they can move on from the cheep and nasty image to occupying a position higher up the ladder, there is a huge opportunity for growth.

[Beagle]

not sure exactly what your beef with WHS is, but everything is relative and I doubt you would find many that would disagree with the statement that WHS is more ethical than many other large retailers in NZ. Yes a large amount of their stock is made in Asia, but that is no different to any other major houseware/clothing/electronics retailer. On the other measures (treatment of its staff, charitable initiatives, local environmental impact) it appears to be doing well, and the fact a large chunk of its profits generated end up going to the tindall foundation is something that other large retailers probably don’t have (does rod duke have a large charity effort?)


I cannot bring myself to support Rod Duke despite his business being a good investment, indeed best in category. They do not hold a trusted position or show community involvement like MFT and FPH for example. They are just a balance sheet with yet another sale each week. I think there is a real opportunity if WHS can position itself as a good corporate citizen with honest pricing. Their stores are so widely distributed and a mainstay of small town NZ. If they can move on from the cheep and nasty image to occupying a position higher up the ladder, there is a huge opportunity for growth.

Very well said. That's the thing with this one...really compelling metrics, (PE of just over 7), and very high dividend yield with heaps of room for improvements to their business model and the financial results that come from that.

[Panda-NZ-]

Briscoes has enjoyed record profit, revenue and share price growth.

Maybe they can "be kind" and repay their wage subsidy like the warehouse.

[winner69]

Briscoes has enjoyed record profit, revenue and share price growth.

Maybe they can "be kind" and repay their wage subsidy like the warehouse.

Briscoes have repaid the wage subsidy

[Panda-NZ-]

Ok thanks. good to know :)

[Rawz]

Briscoes were the first to repay the subsidy by memory. Master stroke by Duke, big calls came for WHS to follow suit which they did. But Briscoes won the the day of public opinion.

[Beagle]

I couldn't in all good conscience own Briscoes shares because their business model is mostly built around deception. Sales every week, sometimes more than once a week deceiving customers they are getting a genuine sale price. It doesn't feel morally right because in my opinion it isn't.

Companies that are repetitively disingenuous with their marketing are egregiously breeching a social and moral code of fair play in my opinion and this marks them out as one of the worst ESG offenders on the NZX, right up there with sin stocks like SKC as far as I am concerned.

[LoungeLizzard]

not sure exactly what your beef with WHS is, but everything is relative and I doubt you would find many that would disagree with the statement that WHS is more ethical than many other large retailers in NZ. Yes a large amount of their stock is made in Asia, but that is no different to any other major houseware/clothing/electronics retailer. On the other measures (treatment of its staff, charitable initiatives, local environmental impact) it appears to be doing well, and the fact a large chunk of its profits generated end up going to the tindall foundation is something that other large retailers probably don’t have (does rod duke have a large charity effort?)

I don't have a "beef" with WHS as you put it - more that people are deluding themselves, maybe others, in engaging ethical whataboutery. Can anyone seriously argue that the WHS model of cheapness over quality is good for the environment? And charity giving isn't the point - see my comment on Mcdonalds (another big charity giver). It is revealing that most of the material that people post on here supporting WHS as an "ethical" company comes from WHS itself. That is because the WHS doesn't like to co-operate with independent studies - another giveaway. Given the huge range of it's products from China, I have serious doubts whether WHS knows what conditions those products are made in. Sorry to bug you about ethics - I'll stop now. Ethical investing doesn't seem to be a big issue on this site.

[Beagle]

Your argument is appears to be predicated on the assumption that if you pay twice as much for a similar product on so called sale at Briscoes it will last twice as long. I think your argument is fundamentally flawed and without any basis in fact or study.

Calling a company unethical for selling basic needs items to people are fair prices, (without disingenuous sales and marketing tactics) is in my opinion the wrong adjective. You could call them environmentally insensitive but then I would draw your attention to your assumption that because something is cheaper its inferior and has a vastly shorter lifespan.

I just noticed this morning that the electric jug I inherited from my share of My Mum's chattels is a Living and co house brand Warehouse jug. She had it for many many years before I got it to replace the Briscoes jug that burned out recently :p

[LoungeLizzard]

Your argument is appears to be predicated on the assumption that if you pay twice as much for a similar product on so called sale at Briscoes it will last twice as long. I think your argument is fundamentally flawed and without any basis in fact or study.

In general products that cost more last longer and work better. But if you buy into the cheap is best/high volume metrics then WHS wins out. Not good for the planet, but that doesn't seem to be one of your metrics. Fair enough, each to his own.

[bull....]

I couldn't in all good conscience own Briscoes shares because their business model is mostly built around deception. Sales every week, sometimes more than once a week deceiving customers they are getting a genuine sale price. It doesn't feel morally right because in my opinion it isn't.

Companies that are repetitively disingenuous with their marketing are egregiously breeching a social and moral code of fair play in my opinion and this marks them out as one of the worst ESG offenders on the NZX, right up there with sin stocks like SKC as far as I am concerned.

ethical investing depends on the person , what is ethical to you may not be ethical to someone else. hence i would argue whats ethical or not really depends on the marketing as such

[Beagle]

In general products that cost more last longer and work better. But if you buy into the cheap is best/high volume metrics then WHS wins out. Not good for the planet, but that doesn't seem to be one of your metrics. Fair enough, each to his own.
That's where we fundamentally disagree. For example, ask almost anyone with a high end European car whether its more reliable than a Toyota Corolla that costs just a fraction of the price. I'm going to leave it at that with you as I think you are basing your viewpoint on a fundamentally flawed assumption.

[LoungeLizzard]

That's where we fundamentally disagree. For example, ask almost anyone with a high end European car whether its more reliable than a Toyota Corolla that costs just a fraction of the price. I'm going to leave it at that with you as I think you are basing your viewpoint on a fundamentally flawed assumption.
Not a fair comparison as Toyota Corolla's don't end up in landfills after a few months. And they're not made in China. I look at ethics in investing far more than most, but that doesn't mean my assumptions are flawed. As I said, each to their own.

[Dlownz]

I'm still in the opinion of a range 3.70-3.90 till the result. Then let's see where it goes

[alokdhir]

I'm still in the opinion of a range 3.70-3.90 till the result. Then let's see where it goes

Historic results are coming out great ...almost all know but market seems more worried about future prospects . Delta seems tough nut to crack even for our lockdown Queen . Even after 5 weeks of level 4 ...its not slowing down .....Now retail maybe little different both in store and online .

[Hawkeye]

Not a fair comparison as Toyota Corolla's don't end up in landfills after a few months. And they're not made in China. I look at ethics in investing far more than most, but that doesn't mean my assumptions are flawed. As I said, each to their own.

I think it comes down to the owner as to how long items last, a toyota could end up at the wreckers alot faster than a few months, likewise a toy or clothing that is well looked after can end up at a toy library or op shop. I think its wrong to blame a store for the way the consumers use their goods.

[Hawkeye]

In general products that cost more last longer and work better. But if you buy into the cheap is best/high volume metrics then WHS wins out. Not good for the planet, but that doesn't seem to be one of your metrics. Fair enough, each to his own.

You don't work in retail do you?

[Hawkeye]

I don't have a "beef" with WHS as you put it - more that people are deluding themselves, maybe others, in engaging ethical whataboutery. Can anyone seriously argue that the WHS model of cheapness over quality is good for the environment? And charity giving isn't the point - see my comment on Mcdonalds (another big charity giver). It is revealing that most of the material that people post on here supporting WHS as an "ethical" company comes from WHS itself. That is because the WHS doesn't like to co-operate with independent studies - another giveaway. Given the huge range of it's products from China, I have serious doubts whether WHS knows what conditions those products are made in. Sorry to bug you about ethics - I'll stop now. Ethical investing doesn't seem to be a big issue on this site.

https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/news-updates/warehouse/ethical-retail-from-source-to-shelf

Just a quick google. You must feel relieved I could find this out for you. No more sleepless nights.
Yes i know its from the WHS group, but seriously they need to protect their suppliers and sources from competitors, standard business practise.

Don't stop sharing opinions but maybe they are better placed on a K-Mart thread somewhere...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

In general products that cost more last longer and work better. But if you buy into the cheap is best/high volume metrics then WHS wins out. Not good for the planet, but that doesn't seem to be one of your metrics. Fair enough, each to his own.

I disagree with your first sentence - when it comes to household goods it is not at all as you state - numerous consumer product testing roundups routinely find that much of the medium-higher priced products have failure rates no better than the low priced goods. Often the higher priced items are even made in the same Chinese factories as the lower priced items, and the only thing one gets for the extra money is the brand badge.

[Hawkeye]

I disagree with your first sentence - when it comes to household goods it is not at all as you state - numerous consumer product testing roundups routinely find that much of the medium-higher priced products have failure rates no better than the low priced goods. Often the higher priced items are even made in the same Chinese factories as the lower priced items, and the only thing one gets for the extra money is the brand badge.


I believe LaserEyeKiwi's conclusion is 100% correct. With some exceptions of course e.g. cheap and nasty power board vs belkin power board, sometimes technology wins.

[Panda-NZ-]

I disagree with your first sentence - when it comes to household goods it is not at all as you state - numerous consumer product testing roundups routinely find that much of the medium-higher priced products have failure rates no better than the low priced goods. Often the higher priced items are even made in the same Chinese factories as the lower priced items, and the only thing one gets for the extra money is the brand badge.

Yep same with many supermarket goods here unless the country label is different.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NZ Credit Card balances at a 9 year low.

perfect setup for a retail spending boom once aucklanders are unleashed.


The August level of credit card debt (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c12) fell sharply again, now down to under $5.7 bln. This is its lowest in more than nine years, after peaking at $7.5 bln at the end of 2019. The proportion of this debt incurring interest is now less than 55%, the lowest level ever. The level of transaction activity going through credit cards is falling too, with the August $3.1 bln the lowest August since 2017. In fact, credit cards were used less in August (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c13) than in the traditional shadow months of January and February. This latest lockdown obviously helps/(hurts, depending on who you are), but these latest levels are all lower than in previous lockdowns.

[Beagle]

NZ Credit Card balances at a 9 year low.

perfect setup for a retail spending boom once aucklanders are unleashed.

Got chatting with a good mate on the weekend. He remarked how pleased he was during lockdown his wife couldn't hammer their joint credit card.
This month's bill less than $2,000, down from the usual $6-7,000. My goodness she must be scary high maintenance (I thought to myself without actually saying it).

Looking forward to WHS reporting on 29 September.

[Waltzing]

"$6-7,000."

a new designer top then.

[Beagle]

"$6-7,000."

a new designer top then.


Yeah, I think its crystal clear his wife doesn't shop at the Warehouse and neither does he ! In fact I got chatting to him about the WHS once and it was clear he thought shopping there was "beneath" him. This old mutt however has never forgotten his poor background.

[Waltzing]

Yes the stories from ones parent and their parent generations are sobering.

With EVG saga on going and the fire likely to spread some buying opportunities might still be coming down the ticker tape. High yield crisis in china was warned about for the last few years and it hardly new news.

Remember the Great depression came 2 years after the crash though to be fair monetary policy was probably also a big contributor.

Not buying that they have this under control and the fire is out.

Most of the china property developers are heavy in debt... once the collapse starts its hard to stop and it could be like the virus story. To little to late and they are shouting fire fire ... sure Hong Kong property developers are in good shape but the BOND Yield for EVG is going higher with more debt being bought by overseas investors..

Imagine they are running towards the FIRE!!! and BUYING!

WHS is almost BLUE CHIP NOW.

[winner69]

Yeah, I think its crystal clear his wife doesn't shop at the Warehouse and neither does he ! In fact I got chatting to him about the WHS once and it was clear he thought shopping there was "beneath" him. This old mutt however has never forgotten his poor background.

I've never forgotten my poor background either ..... but heck I look really cool and the envy of many when I go out on my Wild South woolen pea coat.....and goes well with my Hiut jeans

Wore it on a trip around the harbour on a cruising yacht - the skipper really was envious because it looked so maritime and tried on it on and said yes that's for me.

Dont think you can buy that gear at The Warehouse

[Waltzing]

Rod and Gun at KIP malls then...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes the stories from ones parent and their parent generations are sobering.

With EVG saga on going and the fire likely to spread some buying opportunities might still be coming down the ticker tape. High yield crisis in china was warned about for the last few years and it hardly new news.

Remember the Great depression came 2 years after the crash though to be fair monetary policy was probably also a big contributor.

Not buying that they have this under control and the fire is out.

Most of the china property developers are heavy in debt... once the collapse starts its hard to stop and it could be like the virus story. To little to late and they are shouting fire fire ... sure Hong Kong property developers are in good shape but the BOND Yield for EVG is going higher with more debt being bought by overseas investors..

Imagine they are running towards the FIRE!!! and BUYING!

WHS is almost BLUE CHIP NOW.

Their debt has been rated Junk for years now, so I consider the contagion risk minimal. None of the large financial institutions internationally these days have large exposure to junk bonds in a way that would cripple them, especially Chinese junk bonds. And these bonds aren’t leveraged in any way either so it’s nothing at all like the CDO/CDS crisis. People rushing into the bonds are just betting on Xi not letting them default, or restructuring the debt to some degree so bond holders still receive some sort of payout (hoping for a repeat of the Greek government bonds - which have increased in value by 3500% from their lows). Either way shareholders in the company will be hurting, but that’s not actually a huge event these days. Storm in a teacup.

[Waltzing]

"Storm in a teacup"

hardly ...not a global event like GFC but it far bigger than a tea cup... 300 billion on this one and there are many others.. Where there is one there are many more.

it could be just the start and it starts this week.

China now cant let this one slide unless it get stop the others going with it..

No one knows how far this one goes.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

"Storm in a teacup"

hardly ...not a global event like GFC but it far bigger than a tea cup... 300 billion on this one and there are many others.. Where there is one there are many more.

it could be just the start and it starts this week.

China now cant let this one slide unless it get stop the others going with it..

No one knows how far this one goes.

maybe your right, but I think in 2 weeks time this will be a non-story.

[Waltzing]

"non-story."

hope not, price volatility. some lower prices for WHS!!!

[winner69]

The 'wall of worry'will hang around for awhile

[iceman]

WHS to pay all fully vaccinated staff a $ 100 bonus in December https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126461334/warehouse-group-to-give-100-to-staff-who-get-covid-vaccine

Probably a good idea but sad that we seem to be reaching a resistance level with vaccinations here now and Government, community leaders and businesses increasingly talking about the need to "incentivise"

[Panda-NZ-]

"Storm in a teacup". Iit could be just the start and it starts this week.


United States debt default is the larger issue. Yes the sort of polarisation there is that bad.

[Rawz]

WHS management know its more cost effective to bribe/award employees than risk more lockdowns.

A know a manager of a small construction company who called up a pharmacy and asked if he could arrange for his 100 employees to come in and all get vaccinated. The pharmacy were happy to do this.

Businesses pushing to get us to 90% so that no more lockdowns. No more lost sales. Can't rely on government.

[Beagle]

WHS to pay all fully vaccinated staff a $ 100 bonus in December https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/126461334/warehouse-group-to-give-100-to-staff-who-get-covid-vaccine

Probably a good idea but sad that we seem to be reaching a resistance level with vaccinations here now and Government, community leaders and businesses increasingly talking about the need to "incentivise"

The other day on TV breakfast they were asking for idea's on how to increase the vaccination rates for Maori and Pacific Island ethnicities.
I reckon set up vaccination centers at KFC stores. Free bucket of KFC for every vaccination done. https://kfc.co.nz/menu/buckets
That would solve a lot of problems eh.

Sad that Warehouse have to bribe their staff to have this done.

[Waltzing]

"That would solve a lot of problems "

yes well you have found the problem.

[Playa]

The other day on TV breakfast they were asking for idea's on how to increase the vaccination rates for Maori and Pacific Island ethnicities.
I reckon set up vaccination centers at KFC stores. Free bucket of KFC for every vaccination done. https://kfc.co.nz/menu/buckets
That would solve a lot of problems eh.

Sad that Warehouse have to bribe their staff to have this done.

Could see a surge in RBD share price if it went ahead, business through the roof

[Beagle]

Could see a surge in RBD share price if it went ahead, business through the roof

You can buy a couple of buckets of KFC with $100 ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

I reckon set up vaccination centers at KFC stores. Free bucket of KFC for every vaccination done. https://kfc.co.nz/menu/buckets
That would solve a lot of problems eh.

Yes but it would encourage obesity and health issues down the line.
Maybe provide a supermarket voucher.

[nztx]

Yes but it would encourage obesity and health issues down the line. Maybe provide a supermarket voucher.


and RBD would then still refrain from paying any sort of dividend and start pursuing a Buy Up of all the
KFC outlets in Ukraine & on the Falkland Islands instead .. ;)

[Waltzing]

"KFC outlets in Ukraine"

how far east are you thinking, right out to the war zone? removed the rest of the post for NZ consumption it may seem a little far fetched.

[Jay]

My wife did a click & collect at Miter10 yesterday - took 2hrs 10 minutes actually at Mire 10 so who says there may not be pent up demand at other retailers
Was looking at "the market" the other day for something - they seem to be a bit more expensive than some other retailers and even perhaps the warehouse itself.

Disc: Current holder

[Rawz]

MightyApe.co.nz > TheMarket.com

[Dlownz]

[QUOTE=Rawz;911901]MightyApe.co.nz > TheMarket.com[/QUOTE
The markets getting better but I also like mighty ape.

[Ogg]

MightyApe.co.nz > TheMarket.com

Kogan < White dog poo

[Beagle]

The other day on TV breakfast they were asking for idea's on how to increase the vaccination rates for Maori and Pacific Island ethnicities.
I reckon set up vaccination centers at KFC stores. Free bucket of KFC for every vaccination done. https://kfc.co.nz/menu/buckets
That would solve a lot of problems eh.

Sad that Warehouse have to bribe their staff to have this done.
As suggested
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-would-you-like-fries-with-that-jab-vaccination-buses-to-target-fast-food-joints/2WKGNW4KDNKKGYLHJVF5I4HWMM/
Join the dots...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-govt-concedes-big-mountain-to-climb-to-lift-vaccination-rate/E4KNJBYJYBANWL7EOWZLWN2Y4I/
Free bucket of KFC with every jab...its only a matter of time lol

[Panda-NZ-]

Give us a brief review of the ebike when you recieve it. I'm interested in nabbing one from the same site.

[Waltzing]

"Free bucket of KFC with every jab...its only a matter of time lol"

Oh dear well perhaps the labour government and TV1 morning news (the left wing news arm of the labour party) can take your idea and run with it as they run out of ideas how to get their voter base out to get vaccinated.

Lets face it most of the billions spent has been so because the govt was slow to get it voters working at the border and MIQ vaccinated. Even Fyfe called it a slow train wreck.

Its almost as pathetic as the 3 waters add that looks like Billy T James wrote the script and is aimed at the same audience as those who the government cant get vaccinated.

Anyway at 3.72-75 WHS is a buy and it is likely this fabulous price is the result of the lockdowns and government policy. BUY WHS!

[Beagle]

Give us a brief review of the ebike when you recieve it. I'm interested in nabbing one from the same site.

Mrs B and I have decided to wait for level 1 and test ride a few different E bikes. Important to be comfortable or you won't use it, is where we've got too.

[Waltzing]

Yesterday was the day... its moving up out of the blocks.

[Beagle]

"Free bucket of KFC with every jab...its only a matter of time lol"

Oh dear well perhaps the labour government and TV1 morning news (the left wing news arm of the labour party) can take your idea and run with it as they run out of ideas how to get their voter base out to get vaccinated.

Lets face it most of the billions spent has been so because the govt was slow to get it voters working at the border and MIQ vaccinated. Even Fyfe called it a slow train wreck.

Its almost as pathetic as the 3 waters add that looks like Billy T James wrote the script and is aimed at the same audience as those who the government cant get vaccinated.

Anyway at 3.72-75 WHS is a buy and it is likely this fabulous price is the result of the lockdowns and government policy. BUY WHS!

Brilliant post, I couldn't agree more. Well done to you Sir for calling it how it really is ! TV1 breakfast is unwatchable in my opinion.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yesterday was the day... its moving up out of the blocks.

hmmm…yes quite a nice little jump to 3.88 in early trade. People getting in before next weeks earnings perhaps.

[Beagle]

hmmm…yes quite a nice little jump to 3.88 in early trade. People getting in before next weeks earnings perhaps.

According to CNBC this morning data just out in the US is that retail spend is up 10% on this time last year despite delta concerns. Pent up retail demand is very strong.