WHS - Warehouse Group

[Waltzing]

"Pent up retail demand is very strong."

the general public have ideas and they like to act on them.

And id buy up on good quality hoses if you can find before Goff starts buying them for auckland and buckets made of good quality plastic for gardening and hand washing clothes that are best washed carefully.

It appears Goff is off and the 3 waters Billy T James skit is about to have some new lines added to it putting a big hole in the bucket in wellington,

lets face wellington is a Billy T James show with the whole RFF slow train wreck that cost billions on a strategy doomed to fail. WHS needs to wholesale N95 masks and PPE. Whole new line of gear that will be needed when ZERO strategy fails and people realise they will need protecting all the time until this things cant find new hosts... over 95% required and that is going to be tough as NZ is not ireland.

good N95 masks will be a must as they cant possible get 95% before xmas.

WHS should run specials on them NOW!

[Rawz]

My wife won a Warehouse stationary $100 voucher today, was for getting the vaccine from Auckland airport park n ride the other week.

Good guys WHS group. Really good corporate citizen. Just thinking back now.. give back wage subsidy, give staff $1,000 bonus, give staff $100 for vaccine, give prizes for general public to get vax. Also $200k or so to womans refuge.

Everyone should shop at the WHS to show some love back to them. :)

[Waltzing]

Great post above, yes that a pretty good record for the beast that is the public company model.

The dutch capitalist model is designed to be dynamic in nature and is not there to be a static business model.

Im afraid the board always wants to leave the station on a faster train if it can.

[Beagle]

My wife won a Warehouse stationary $100 voucher today, was for getting the vaccine from Auckland airport park n ride the other week.

Good guys WHS group. Really good corporate citizens. Just thinking back now.. give back wage subsidy, give staff $1,000 bonus, give staff $100 for vaccine, give prizes for general public to get vax. Also $200k or so to womans refuge.
Everyone should shop at the WHS to show some love back to them. :)

$250,000 to Women's refuge and this from the notes in their interim result earlier this year

In December 2020, due to strong trading through the current half year and the weeks leading up to Christmas, the Group made the voluntary
decision to repay the Government COVID-19 wage subsidy it received of $67.6 million


"Everyone should shop at the WHS to show some love back to them"

I couldn't agree more.

[bull....]

Yesterday was the day... its moving up out of the blocks.

technicals very bullish , recent rally was from 3.45 to 3.90.
yesterday it bounced from the 38.2% retracement area at 3.74 odd likely people mopping up any surplus stock before next weeeks announcement.
mthly bollingers next mth open up 4.30 as a possibilty once 4 is removed.

ill imagine on div announcement it will attract plenty new buying once the div yield is cemented.
next 6 mths is my pick for nzx 50 inclusion.

[Waltzing]

yes bollingers narrowing and stochastics bouncing up..

[Habits]

"slow train wreck that cost billions"
Ah yes sounds like the Hamilton Commuter which is virtually empty

[Waltzing]

"Hamilton Commuter which is virtually empty"

is it? oh no and they handed out commemorative works of art to all the honorary VIP's and departments involved.

Not going on it till it fast electric at least like Lund to København and it pretty crappy compared to the bigger ones.

or the french TGV would do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TGV

but honestly the train from hamilton to auckland will be used when visitors return and you can bet they will think they are in a third world country.

damn good place to ride out a viral storm says the PHD Bio Chemist.. she know best. Never argue with the science.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Briscoes says retail sales in Auckland in level 3 are significantly busier than last year.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/126489167/briscoes-boss-level-3-busier-this-year-than-last

[winner69]

Briscoes says retail sales in Auckland in level 3 are significantly busier than last year.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/126489167/briscoes-boss-level-3-busier-this-year-than-last

More than gangbusters ….. an ‘explosion’ of orders

[Gunner]

More than gangbusters ….. an ‘explosion’ of orders

Pent up demand, no international or domestic travel and no competition with smaller retailers at level 3 in Auckland can only be good for the big chains like WHS.

[DonkeyKong]

technicals very bullish , recent rally was from 3.45 to 3.90.
yesterday it bounced from the 38.2% retracement area at 3.74 odd likely people mopping up any surplus stock before next weeeks announcement.
mthly bollingers next mth open up 4.30 as a possibilty once 4 is removed.

ill imagine on div announcement it will attract plenty new buying once the div yield is cemented.
next 6 mths is my pick for nzx 50 inclusion.

How do they decide which companies get included and removed from the nzx 50? I couldn’t find an answer when doing a quick google search. Thanks in advance.

[winner69]

Share price seems stuck around 385 mark

The share price will go up by what divie is announced next and hopefully take it to 400

Depending on what Nick says about current trading and the year ahead that will the catalyst for the share price to keep rising to 420 …430 … 440 ….

If Nick is rather subdued we’ll see the 400 hit on the divie (amazes me how punters buy the divie) but see the share price drift back into the 360/380 range

But if Briscoes anything to go buy a boomer of a result coming up and maybe Nick will use Rod’s term ‘explosive ‘ when talking about post lockdown sales

[winner69]

Warehouse and their support of Woman’s Refuge ….and publicly being rather low key about it.

Reminds of me of what somebody told me about Westpac support of the rescue helicopter …… they donate a million to the service and then spend two million advertising what they’ve done and how good / generous they are

[Zaphod]

Warehouse and their support of Woman’s Refuge ….and publicly being rather low key about it.

Reminds of me of what somebody told me about Westpac support of the rescue helicopter …… they donate a million to the service and then spend two million advertising what they’ve done and how good / generous they are

In this era, it's all about perception. Perceived celebrity, perceived success, perceived discounts, perceived generosity.....

[percy]

Warehouse and their support of Woman’s Refuge ….and publicly being rather low key about it.

Reminds of me of what somebody told me about Westpac support of the rescue helicopter …… they donate a million to the service and then spend two million advertising what they’ve done and how good / generous they are

That would be the norm in any sponsorship deal,whether it is Rugby,Sailing,or Skellerup Red Gumboot throwing competition.

[Gunner]

That would be the norm in any sponsorship deal,whether it is Rugby,Sailing,or Skellerup Red Gumboot throwing competition.

They ultimately want sponsorships to drive sales. They already contribute to society through taxes and employing staff directly and indirectly so good on them.

[BlackPeter]

How do they decide which companies get included and removed from the nzx 50? I couldn’t find an answer when doing a quick google search. Thanks in advance.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf

Happy reading ....

[BlackPeter]

In this era, it's all about perception. Perceived celebrity, perceived success, perceived discounts, perceived generosity.....

It always was. Never heard about "the emperors new clothes"? Just perception.

[Ferg]

How do they decide which companies get included and removed from the nzx 50? I couldn’t find an answer when doing a quick google search. Thanks in advance.
There is a resource here:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-nzx-50-index/#overview

that gives you the methodology in a pdf document here:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf

Basically it works like this (I am paraphrasing so don't quote me or hold me to this):
Value = Issued Shares x Share Price x Investable Factor

Investable Factor = % of Issued Shares not held by strategic insiders such as founders, directors, cornerstone shareholders, private equity etc. (e.g. Tindall foundation share are excluded)

Everyone is put into a list and ranked according to the value, if you are already in the top 50 you stay there unless someone passes an inclusion or exclusion threshold. If you are not in the top 50 but get to position 43 AND pass the liquidity test AND have been there for 3 consecutive quarters, then you are in and the lowest gets kicked out. There are ways you can be in the top 50 and then removed, e.g. takeover, value falls to a very low figure, lack of liquidity etc. It's all in the pdf link above.

It's not easy to get in or out and the intent is that it is not constantly chopping and changing. Last time I checked there were a few candidates knocking on the door such as Delegats, Warehouse & Hallensteins.

[Beagle]

Thanks but to be fair many other experienced investors have noted this as a great buy.

I am really looking forward to the result on 29th and getting a steer on how this is going to grow further in FY22. I think the analysts have this one well and truly wrong with their FY22 average estimate of $110m. I foresee the so called one-off effect of Covid that is likely to generate more than $170m normalized profit in FY21 as being enduring for many years and that's what's going to be part of the driver behind price appreciation in the years ahead as well as Torpedo 7 gaining more critical mass as more people embrace the Kiwi outdoors and the market.com gaining momentum. Store within a store to start gaining more momentum in FY22 and future years too as well as some store rationalization with their WALT of just 4 years and they enhance their digital footprint.

From 9 September 2021. Locked and loaded with a large stake for 29 September and hoping for $170m+ normalised profit. Hoping the result breaks the shackles and we finally get over $4 on the day or within a few days afterwards. I note from a TA point of view a continuing uptrend which I expect will be enduring. Reiterating what I said above I think analysts have this FAR too low for FY22 and I expect we will see ongoing analyst upgrades coming through as we progress through the coming financial year. For the foreseeable future, the longer you hold, the more you will make is how I see it. NZX50 inclusion coming before the end of 2022 in my opinion.

[Panda-NZ-]

The govt should refuse approval for Amazon if it wants to set up warehouses here like they have in Australia.

The US small business retail landscape is a bit of a wasteland so we don't want that here.

[Habits]

The govt should refuse approval for Amazon if it wants to set up warehouses here like they have in Australia.

The US small business retail landscape is a bit of a wasteland so we don't want that here.

Open economy so on what grounds would they refuse approvals. I am concerned the multi nationals dont declare taxable income and IRD allows them to get away with it. Tax paying nz based companies are replaced by the FAANG companies which generate income here but pay little to no tax

[Panda-NZ-]

Overseas investment office, refuse their building and other consents etc.

[Rawz]

The govt should refuse approval for Amazon if it wants to set up warehouses here like they have in Australia.

The US small business retail landscape is a bit of a wasteland so we don't want that here.

Free open economy. It’s competition, good for consumers. Small businesses will need to revamp their business model or perish like the dodo.

Plenty of small businesses have grown and taken on large sluggish corporates before. Some win and then become the sluggish corporate themselves.

Blocking Amazon will make us less competitive and lazy.

[bull....]

How do they decide which companies get included and removed from the nzx 50? I couldn’t find an answer when doing a quick google search. Thanks in advance.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The govt should refuse approval for Amazon if it wants to set up warehouses here like they have in Australia.

The US small business retail landscape is a bit of a wasteland so we don't want that here.

For many small businesses, Amazon is their largest sales channel as they also operate as a storefront for 3rd party retailers, and also offer warehousing and distribution facilities as well. This is the goal for WHS owned themarket.com to replicate.

[ratkin]

The govt should refuse approval for Amazon if it wants to set up warehouses here like they have in Australia.

The US small business retail landscape is a bit of a wasteland so we don't want that here.

They have already bribed the Govt, spending 7.5B on Auckland data centres.

[see weed]

Beagle, should I take out that 7,000 sitting there at 3.91, it is annoying me. ;)

[nztx]

Beagle, should I take out that 7,000 sitting there at 3.91, it is annoying me. ;)


you better be fast before it annoys me first :)

[see weed]

you better be fast before it annoys me first :)
Done, gone. But sp dropped to 3.90 the same time as mine went through :mellow:

[see weed]

you better be fast before it annoys me first :)
NZTX, Would you like me to take out that 6000 sitting there at 3.93?;)

[Beagle]

Good for you mate.

[Waltzing]

4 dollars?

[bull....]

close above 3.90 should open up 4

[winner69]

close above 3.90 should open up 4

Certainly will …..and then by what the divie ito be
nnounced this week

[bull....]

Certainly will …..and then by what the divie ito be
nnounced this week

i still go with a div + a special. anyway the div yield alone once confirmed should attract heaps more buying as the yield be rediculously high in this low rate environment

[couta1]

Toroedo 7 needs to up their game, their order and delivery process is a shambles, ordered a pair of skis just before lockdown, they left the Albany store but never arrived in Q/town, then they went back to their distribution centre in Hamilton before being sent back to Albany last week where you are unable to purchase online or instore, staff in Q/town spend many days trying to sort it out to no avail, ended up buying the skis from a competitor. Aside from that their online page shows no orders even though the order is in the system, ordered an expensive ski bag a couple of wks ago also via click and collect which arrived in Q/town 10 days after ordering and a day after I left, lets see if it ever makes it to Wellington.

[Old mate]

I order a lot of gear online from torpedo 7 and have never had a problem. Very prompt and efficient.

[winner69]

Toroedo 7 needs to up their game, their order and delivery process is a shambles, ordered a pair of skis just before lockdown, they left the Albany store but never arrived in Q/town, then they went back to their distribution centre in Hamilton before being sent back to Albany last week where you are unable to purchase online or instore, staff in Q/town spend many days trying to sort it out to no avail, ended up buying the skis from a competitor. Aside from that their online page shows no orders even though the order is in the system, ordered an expensive ski bag a couple of wks ago also via click and collect which arrived in Q/town 10 days after ordering and a day after I left, lets see if it ever makes it to Wellington.

And all you wanted to do was have fun with new skis …..and ended up using the old ones ……and struggling to get over 100kmh

And apparently Torpedo7 has a whizz bang IT system

[couta1]

And all you wanted to do was have fun with new skis …..and ended up using the old ones ……and struggling to get over 100kmh

And apparently Torpedo7 has a whizz bang IT system Lol your a mind reader winner, did hit 94.2kmh though so not far to go, whizz bang was/is a fizzer in my case.

[Beagle]

I order a lot of gear online from torpedo 7 and have never had a problem. Very prompt and efficient.

Thanks for sharing. The food I ordered from WHS during level 4 lockdown all arrived within 5 working days.

[nztx]

NZTX, Would you like me to take out that 6000 sitting there at 3.93?;)

I'm sorry - I got distracted after posting .. very very tempting however :)

[winner69]

Bank economic commentators writing a report on the future of retailing …hmmm. Good effort though summarising what’s already out there so a bit boring and not much new.

Seems to say the big will survive and small retailers unless they are really niche will go away

Did mention the metaverse and immersive customer experiences - hope Nick has got this underway

https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/New_Zealand/2021/September_2021/Retail_Report_Sep_2021_Westpac_NZ.pdf

PA - Couts, on demand availability is key to success it says

[winner69]

This marketing in the metaverse would allow Beagle to load his avatar and immerse himself in a space where he could experience riding his ebike along Tamaki Drive to St Heliers …….and then with Torpedo7’s on demand delivery have it delivered that day, or maybe next day.

And Couts could experience being Speedy Meady doing 125 kmd on the skis he fancies

Cool stuff eh

Hope Nick is on to it

[LaserEyeKiwi]

maybe your right, but I think in 2 weeks time this will be a non-story.

do I have to wait 2 weeks to call it? I think even after a week the Evergrande drama of a week ago is getting close to being called a nothingburger.

[see weed]

4 dollars?
There she blows:eek2:

[bull....]

There she blows:eek2:

brought some more this morning to add to a big top up in the 3.70s.

you could see somethings was brewing the other days.
there was big buyer right on the open for a number of days for 50k of shares mopping up everything at any price

[see weed]

brought some more this morning to add to a big top up in the 3.70s.

you could see somethings was brewing the other days.
there was big buyer right on the open for a number of days for 50k of shares mopping up everything at any price
Had an order of 6000 at open but only got 4,022. I noticed a group of about 70 sharesies had an order in, they probably got the rest.

[winner69]

Jeez just gone past two Z’s and two BPs and petrol at 244. Crude going up so petrol even more next month

That could put a dampener on spend

[BlackPeter]

Jeez just gone past two Z’s and two BPs and petrol at 244. Crude going up so petrol even more next month

That could put a dampener on spend

There is only one BP and I don't sell petrol :):

Anyway - people should buy EV's ...

To get enough power out of the plug equivalent to what one litre of petrol would give you costs apparently only 40 cents (Obviously without Road User charges - i.e. better compare with price of diesel).

Leaves much more money in the purse to spend at the local warehouse - and they even have an EV charging station!

[Beagle]

Nice...onward and upward to $5 before Christmas and $7 the following Christmas. WHS shares, the gift you give yourself :)

[peat]

you guys are getting a bit deluded. people who shop at Warehouse are poor people. looking for a bargain. an el cheapo bargain.
they dont want immersive metaverse experiences wtf?
they just want enough left over to buy booze
they dont own EV's
13004


good on the share price as Beagle predicted though as usual me out too soon.

[ratkin]

Made it to 4.00 eventually, Six months later than predicted, but a slow rise probably more sustainable.

Lots of tail winds and potential upside surprises a possibility

[winner69]

you guys are getting a bit deluded. people who shop at Warehouse are poor people. looking for a bargain. an el cheapo bargain.
they dont want immersive metaverse experiences wtf?
they just want enough left over to buy booze
they dont own EV's
13004


good on the share price as Beagle predicted though as usual me out too soon.

Nick talks that sort of stuff for WHS ….maybe Nick is the one whose deluded

[Panda-NZ-]

WHS seems to be one of the only retailers without supply shortages who can ship within a few days.

[couta1]

you guys are getting a bit deluded. people who shop at Warehouse are poor people. looking for a bargain. an el cheapo bargain.
they dont want immersive metaverse experiences wtf?
they just want enough left over to buy booze
they dont own EV's
13004


good on the share price as Beagle predicted though as usual me out too soon. Yep never get swept up in the hype on here or any other stock for that matter, nor extreme negativity when that shows its head, people can and do change their sentiment on a dime and you can't see everyone's motives clearly, this weeks best thing since sliced bread is next weeks don't touch with a 40 foot barge pole story.

[BlackPeter]

Yep never get swept up in the hype on here or any other stock for that matter, nor extreme negativity when that shows its head, people can and do change their sentiment on a dime and you can't see everyone's motives clearly, this weeks best thing since sliced bread is next weeks don't touch with a 40 foot barge pole story.

ATM thread :scared: is a great example for the behaviour of some of the posters here, isn't it :p ?

[couta1]

ATM thread :scared: is a great example for the behaviour of some of the posters here, isn't it :p ? As I said 'any other stock' yet ATM was severely affected by Covid both on its rise (Pantry stocking) and fall (Loss of Daigou channel) unlike any other stock on the NZX. I don't hold it or WHS anymore but I'm not going to trash talk either of them, WHS is a boring divvy play IMO and ATM has a marathon road to recovery.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

you guys are getting a bit deluded. people who shop at Warehouse are poor people. looking for a bargain. an el cheapo bargain.
they dont want immersive metaverse experiences wtf?
they just want enough left over to buy booze
they dont own EV's
13004


good on the share price as Beagle predicted though as usual me out too soon.

Not sure I agree with you on WHS customers - many well heeled people on this thread shop at the red sheds, and even more so at the other WHS brands (Noel Leeming, Torpedo 7 & Warehouse Stationary) and whenever my wife and I go there I spend plenty. -
Putting demographic debates aside, anyone wanting to be a leading online retail player most definitely should be advancing with pains to integrate in-home augmented reality technology for online shopping, regardless of the target market - which is the reason the largest discount retailers globally (Amazon, Alibaba, Walmart) are the ones already rolling it out.

‘if anyone is wondering what the hell I am talking about, a good example is going to the website mocka.co.nz on your phone, and then selected a furniture product and click the “view in home” button - and you will be able to see what the product looks like in your own house (I have an iPhone, I presume it works on other phone makes as well).

End result is you get a photo real experience like this:

13005


https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/5ba77f5f-88ff-4a93-b4cc-d376ca0c0348

[Beat the Bank]

Peat
you guys are getting a bit deluded. people who shop at Warehouse are poor people. looking for a bargain. an el cheapo bargain.
they dont want immersive metaverse experiences wtf?
they just want enough left over to buy booze
they dont own EV's


What a lot of ****. Why be so demeaning to people? You are just wrong. The Warehouse sells lots of homewares, gardening etc, even school uniforms, and with 257 stores in NZ verses Briscoes 45 (google may not be accurate), The Warehouse is still a local supplier of essential items for a huge chunk of NZ families, not just poor boozers! And it is important to remember as LazerEyeKiwi says, that Noel Leeming and Torpedo7 are involved.
Imagine if it was the Noel Leeming group instead of Warehouse. It would be better supported I think.

[Waltzing]

"hey dont want immersive metaverse experiences wtf?
they just want enough left over to buy booze
they dont own EV's"

ok are they looking to expand there customer base? Beagle has shopped there?

on the positive side, high at this point 4.05.

Gosh well the lower income demographic must also enjoy shopping, its looks to be endemic.

[winner69]

Yep never get swept up in the hype on here ……..

Some say current value of stock = fair value valuation +/- hype

Based on average sector multiples one could look at WHS as $4.00 = $7.50 (fair value)less $3,50 of hype (negative hype)

No hype at all in WHS share price ..market still down on them


WHS needs Nick and all of us to get the story out there ……maybe we could say WHS at $8.00 is $7.00 plus $1.00 hype.

[Waltzing]

"WHS at $8.00"

:eek2:

Mr B at 7, Wn at 8, any takers at 8.50.. going going?

The question is when? :t_up:

Oca 1.48 .....

[Beagle]

"

Beagle has shopped there? .

I'm quite relaxed about shopping there for consumer basics. Noel Leeming has always impressed and I see Torpedo 7 has some very cool electric bikes at really sharp prices, (need to test ride before buying) :t_up: Looking forward to tomorrow's result. Looking for normalized profit, (profit before repayment of Wage subsidy and restructuring costs incurred in the first half) of about $173m which is eps of 50 cps and has WHS on a historic PE of 8 at $4, which I think is still VERY cheap given the initiatives they are working on to enhance their business model which I am sure they will elaborate upon in quite some detail tomorrow.

$5 before Christmas 2021 and $7 before Christmas 2022 and also NZX50 inclusion in 2022, I called it first :D

[Sideshow Bob]

Last time WHS traded over $4 was a brief period in May 2013.

Last time any sustained period over $4 was mid-2008.

Long time between drinks......

[peat]

I'm quite relaxed about shopping there for consumer basics.

note the qualification guys

do I really need an immersive experience for a 'basic'. probably not.

but that said it will become commonplace with Moore's law and all that. its just a matter of how much it costs to set up and whether thats justfiable or not from the margin. I'd tend to think not in this shops demographic but you guys think differently. Lets see how many years before WHS offers an immersive shopping experience.

it is very incredible isnt it to think that I bought some of these one year ago to the day at 2.24

[Waltzing]

"$7 before Christmas 2022 and also NZX50 inclusion in 2022"

almost too much excitement for one week!

[Dotbond]

We shop there and we ain't lacking money.

[winner69]

Big day tomorrow and $4.08 great launching pad for a $4.50 close by end of week

Only thing I won’t guess is the size of the dividend ….not that worried about that

[Beagle]

Big day tomorrow and $4.08 great launching pad for a $4.50 close by end of week

Only thing I won’t guess is the size of the dividend ….not that worried about that

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126517363/law-change-to-encourage-landlords-and-tenants-to-share-financial-burden-of-covid19?cid=app-iPhone

Govt forcing landlords to give fair concessions on rent should be a real tailwind for all retailers.

[Habits]

We shop there and we ain't lacking money.

Yes def me too it is one of my regular shops to visit. Other than building supplies they have everything as well as open late. Now also chemist delivery :t_up:

[Habits]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126517363/law-change-to-encourage-landlords-and-tenants-to-share-financial-burden-of-covid19?cid=app-iPhone

Govt forcing landlords to give fair concessions on rent should be a real tailwind for all retailers.

Nothing exciting in this announcement I think ... "Once the law was passed, the changes would take effect from today, September 28." Not retrospective

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This is setting up for confirmation of a monthly bull flag, leading to the potential of further large moves over the coming months (refer to my previous posts). If we get confirmation then $4.50 should be on the cards at minimum. Daily, weekly and monthly uptrends intact. Playing trends on monthly timeframes just requires patience for them to play out.

I see two scenarios as most likely:

1. We have a bull flag pullback from the double top (likely on the weekly chart), before breaking the resistance and confirming monthly bull flag. In my view any pullpack from resistance will be for buying (unless news or red flags develop e.g. increased selling volume)

2. Breaking straight through the $3.86 resistance to confirm bull flag

A double top is a possible scenario to be aware of, however my view would be that this is only really possible with a negative news or sentiment event.

Disc: large long term position and trading around the edges.

12936


Well scenario 1 has essentially played out. We did see a break of resistance with zero follow through which gave up a small caution flag, however daily RSI was already approaching overbought so the potential for this was reasonably high. Instead we had a pullback to set a new weekly higher low, allowing daily RSI to cool off to set up for this break. This formation provides a firmer base for a run.

Short term price target is $4.50ish. However, we have just consolidated for 6 months in a monthly bull flag formation, so the potential for a much larger run over the next few months is a high likelihood. Pull up a monthly chart and look back to 2000 and you'll see very rapid runs into the $6-$7 region. Of course this may not happen, but history shows big money can be made and lost very quickly on retail stocks (knowing when to sell is just as important as knowing when to buy).

[winner69]

We were pretty close with our $175m adjusted earnings

Does one round up or down $175.5m

[Dlownz]

Can't complain

[bull....]

well done whs

beat on npat of 175 and 30cps full year divs puts it on 10% gross yield ( i didnt include the special div of 5c as it was a one off) so there is potential for increased regular divs going forward if you apply there 70% of npat formual

wow pretty good compared to the bank.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

A 24.3cps gross dividend... looks a bit ridiculous (in a good way) given the low rate environment :t_up:

[bull....]

warehouse hasnt even applied for the wage subsidy for the current lockdown , they say cash position is strong we dont need it. wonder if HLG is doing the same?

[allfromacell]

warehouse hasnt even applied for the wage subsidy for the current lockdown , they say cash position is strong we dont need it. wonder if HLG is doing the same?

Personally the most disappointing part of the result, almost all that cash on hand gone by now.

[bull....]

Personally the most disappointing part of the result, almost all that cash on hand gone by now.



yep but post lock - down they make it back pretty quick and they get the brand loyalty by not taking the wage subsidy. ie briscoes has the same policy , branding far outweighs a few dollars in wage subsidy esp if you dont need it.

[Balance]

well done whs

beat on npat of 175 and 30cps full year divs puts it on 10% gross yield ( i didnt include the special div of 5c as it was a one off) so there is potential for increased regular divs going forward if you apply there 70% of npat formual

wow pretty good compared to the bank.

Ramper Alert - bullxxxx - be aware.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Personally the most disappointing part of the result, almost all that cash on hand gone by now.



Eh? You realize most of the country exited lockdown weeks ago right?

[winner69]

warehouse hasnt even applied for the wage subsidy for the current lockdown , they say cash position is strong we dont need it. wonder if HLG is doing the same?

HLG already have got some but not let's go there

[allfromacell]

Eh? You realize most of the country exited lockdown weeks ago right?

Just going off the presentation: "The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date as a result of the decreasedsales but the Group’s bank debt facilities remain undrawn."

[winner69]

Hope the usual 'pent up demand' trick plays out again

FY22 sales for the first 8 weeks of the financial year were down 22% compared to the same period in
FY21.

And analysts weren't expecting much growth in F22 (before lock downs were known) and were saying F21 ws really a one off

[Beagle]

A lot to get through but these are my first impressions

Normalised net profit exceeded my expectations at just on $175m and amounts to eps of 50.6 cps

Gross profit percentage up 380 basis points WOW !!

Final dividend declared of 17.5 cps (fully imputed) bringing the total to 35.5 cps, just a fraction over the 70% minimum of normalised eps is as per expectations and prudent given post balance date lockdown
35.5 cps fully imputed (35.5 / 0.72) = 49.31 cps gross which on a $4 share price gives gross yield of 12.3%.

Net cash balance was strong at $160.5m, (no debt) despite inventory being up nicely and they seem well positioned for the busy Christmas trading period

Stock turn increased to 5.3 times which is very impressive from 4.4 times last year, (this is a real highlight as it shows their stock selection and management has really improved. Aged inventory down nicely in line with this improvement)

8 new store within a store initiatives during the year bringing the total SWAS to 25.

Reduced store footprint, down 5 stores as they look to optimize their retail footprint.

CODB (Cost of doing business) down 180 bps is very impressive

Current lockdown is hurting with FY22 YTD sales down 22%.

Those with a negative bias will focus on the negative...as for me I am a happy holder and happy to hold through the challenges presenting in the short term believing that we will get back to retail normality sometime soon.

[winner69]

Just going off the presentation: "The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date as a result of the decreasedsales but the Group’s bank debt facilities remain undrawn."

At least shareholders are getting $60m of it :t_up:

[Beagle]

Been carbon neutral since 2019. That's bound to impress the ESG enthusiasts. Lots of talk about sustainability and affordability going hand in hand. Plenty of giving back to the community, supporting worthy causes, repaying the $67m wage subsidy and all sorts of other feel good ESG stuff.

[Neophyte]

Initial thoughts on first skim of the result is impressive. The increased margins across all four divisions is huge, especially the red sheds where operating profit margin grew 720 bps resulting in the additional $130m profit from an extra $100m sales

People will hang on the 22% sales decrease but IMO this is good news as its not a big drop considering the country was in lockdown, if 'worse case' earnings drop 20% for the year its c. $140m NPAT giving P/e of 10 - still cheap as and no one would expect it to continue as we come out of lockdowns with the boarders closed and huge amounts of discretionary cash floating around

[Habits]

Going up 421

[Rawz]

So did the hard working grunts get the $1000 bonus in the end? Or not mentioned?

[allfromacell]

At least shareholders are getting $60m of it :t_up:

And SP up by the divi amount, exactly as you predicted :scared:

[allfromacell]

So did the hard working grunts get the $1000 bonus in the end? Or not mentioned?

Yes they did, those who work part time (less than 20 hours) got around half.

[Beagle]

How the N.Z. Herald is reporting it - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-warehouse-posts-record-profit-reports-growth-in-online-sales/IIZ5QHCFWTL5NMZOVAFWMJNPGY/

[percy]

How the N.Z. Herald is reporting it - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-warehouse-posts-record-profit-reports-growth-in-online-sales/IIZ5QHCFWTL5NMZOVAFWMJNPGY/

Incredible.
Well done holders.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

From the annual report:

“During the year Foodstuffs sold down their 9% shareholding in the Group. This sell down has substantially increased the Group’s free float on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) to 30% and will improve liquidity, which has been a barrier to some investors. The Warehouse Group has been listed on the NZX for 26 years and is committed to maintaining this as a viable source of capital. Our market capitalisation was $1.2b at FY21 year end, increasing to $1.3b at the date of this report, and it is our ambition to return to being included in the NZX50.”

[ratkin]

Those 1.50 shares picked up on the day the first lockdown was announced are now paying a ridiculous high Yield, they will pay for themselves in no time.

[Beat the Bank]

And this is how Radio NZ is reporting it. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/452538/the-warehouse-bounces-back-with-strong-lift-in-sales

'The big Red Shed stores had a 6 percent rise in sales, 10 percent margin growth, and accounted for just over half of group sales'.
Sounds like they are on a strong path for the future.

[Panda-NZ-]

17.5c dividend.. excellent

[Rawz]

SP only up 1.7% after an initial 4%+ jump.

Market says its ho-hum result?

Market says this is one off and not to be repeated next year.

Rawz says this christmas trading period will set records for the ages.

[allfromacell]

SP only up 1.7% after an initial 4%+ jump.

Market says its ho-hum result?

Market says this is one off and not to be repeated next year.

Rawz says this christmas trading period will set records for the ages.

I think the market is just adjusting to the sea of red across global markets today. It's already ran hard leading up to the results so I think the market reaction is quite satisfactory.

[nztx]

I think the market is just adjusting to the sea of red across global markets today. It's already ran hard leading up to the results so I think the market reaction is quite satisfactory.

yes -- looks that way

[Waltzing]

"17.5c dividend.. excellent"

stunning. Better then expected Dividend.

A lot of champagne glasses arriving from the german.

[winner69]

Revenues up 7.6% on pcp seems a great effort

However according to Stats NZ retail sales in NZ (in the sectors that TWG compete) were up about 16% - TWG didn't keep up with NZ retail spend - they lost market share

That's not good ....esp when looking forward


Interestingly in same period Briscoe Group sales were up 19%

[winner69]

Noel Leeming sales up 11.7%

JB HiFi sales were up 17.4% (June year end)

Stats NZ reported that Electrical and Electronic retailer sales were up 25%

Noel Leeming lost market share

Noel Leeming a bit bigger than JB Hi Fi - $1.2 billion sales v $0,26 billion. .....and JB Hi Fi don't make much money in NZ

[Waltzing]

w(n) - Bris Total Div , WHS total Div?

Product ranges across all these companies is quite different. WHS not even similar to HN.

It thats Whs has been very undervalued and needs repricing.

[Rawz]

W69 but sometimes you have to sell less to make more. What about the margin story?

[winner69]

Chair Joan apparently said divie is dependent on ‘NZ being predominantly at Level 2 or below at the end of October’

Wow 45 new cases in Auckland today ….hmmm

We have to PM and Hipkins sort this out quick.

[winner69]

W69 but sometimes you have to sell less to make more. What about the margin story?

I’m thinking about the sustainability of those margins ……..esp if consumers stop spending up big next year

[Waltzing]

W(n) on .esp even being lower for WHS compared to Bris WHS still undervalued at 4.15?

"We have to PM and Hipkins sort this out quick."

Your joking right. They had over a year to deploy systems and blew it... It's just ANZ doesnt even know it yet.

Lucky there is a tablet coming. The Bio Chems call it a "Cool little Tablet".

[bull....]

Chair Joan apparently said divie is dependent on ‘NZ being predominantly at Level 2 or below at the end of October’

Wow 45 new cases in Auckland today ….hmmm

We have to PM and Hipkins sort this out quick.

if tomorrows covid numbers are big i doubt auckland will go level 2 next week maybe level 3 till vaccine numbers are at 80%+

[Waltzing]

Just saw a vertical legs press machine at T7 that looks good. A must have for that explosive Quad power development ...:mad ;: ....:scared:

[Beagle]

Chair Joan apparently said divie is dependent on ‘NZ being predominantly at Level 2 or below at the end of October’

Wow 45 new cases in Auckland today ….hmmm

We have to PM and Hipkins sort this out quick.

Her exact words from the analyst presentation were :-

"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October "

What she said is open to interpretation but for what its worth my view of that is that currently New Zealand is already predominantly at level 2.

A very strong result. Looking ahead I have to concede today's covid numbers were disappointing which does open up the possibility of Auckland being in level 3 for some time to come but I note this will affect all retailers and WHS valuation looks truly compelling (on a historic normalized PE of ~ 8), by comparison to the others.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Revenues up 7.6% on pcp seems a great effort

However according to Stats NZ retail sales in NZ (in the sectors that TWG compete) were up about 16% - TWG didn't keep up with NZ retail spend - they lost market share

That's not good ....esp when looking forward


Interestingly in same period Briscoe Group sales were up 19%

some major caveats with that comparison:

- WHS had an extra week in their 2020 reporting (53 weeks) - so the 7.6% increase in sales is with one less week.
- WHS closed a net of 5 stores last year, so the same store sales increase is larger than 7.6%.

also where is the 16% stats nz figure from? Warehouse financial year runs from August 2nd 2020 to August 1st 2021, and I haven’t seen any stats NZ figures that cover July 2021 yet (the latest reports are for quarter ending June).

also from page 37 of todays annual report:

”We have been able to grow margin without eroding our value perception as a result of our price optimisation programme. Whilethe Group’s sales grew significantly during the year, and at stronger margins across the board, the New Zealand market experienced significant growth in categories the Group doesn’t fully participate in, including restaurants (+23.7%), home building supplies (+16.3%), and health goods and services (+16.0%). As a result of this uneven growth across the market, the Group’s market share declined -0.2 points to 6.0% of total retail sales (including grocery and food)”

[Waltzing]

from MR B "on a historic normalized PE of ~ 8"

yes and why is the market reluctant to give it a higher SP.

Yet for Bris they are happy to pay a premium?

Will have to get the builders in to set up a small gymn.

Clearly the Govt has blown it and border which should be safely open by Jan wont be.

[Beagle]

some major caveats with that comparison:

- WHS had an extra week in their 2020 reporting (53 weeks) - so the 7.6% increase in sales is with one less week.
- WHS closed a net of 5 stores last year, so the same store sales increase is larger than 7.6%.

also where is the 16% stats nz figure from? Warehouse financial year runs from August 2nd 2020 to August 1st 2021, and I haven’t seen any stats NZ figures that cover July 2021 yet (the latest reports are for quarter ending June).

also from page 37 of todays annual report:

”We have been able to grow margin without eroding our value perception as a result of our price optimisation programme. Whilethe Group’s sales grew significantly during the year, and at stronger margins across the board, the New Zealand market experienced significant growth in categories the Group doesn’t fully participate in, including restaurants (+23.7%), home building supplies (+16.3%), and health goods and services (+16.0%). As a result of this uneven growth across the market, the Group’s market share declined -0.2 points to 6.0% of total retail sales (including grocery and food)”
Excellent post, I appreciate your analysis.

"yes and why is the market reluctant to give it a higher SP".
We've enjoyed a nice little rally these last few days but Rome wasn't built in a day my friend.
I don't see the market according WHS the same PE as Briscoes but a normal retail PE of about 13 in due course is a real possibility and if they can do 50 cents per share that's $6.50. Just got to hang in there and hope today's scary covid numbers turbocharge people's desire to be vaccinated so we can get close to 90% by year end and back to some sort of normality in 2022.

[Panda-NZ-]

Lots of cost benefits still to come through -- staff reductions and newer IT systems.

[Waltzing]

"Rome wasn't built in a day "

6 volume's?

Lucky the financials are a bit shorter read!

[couta1]

"Rome wasn't built in a day "

6 volume's?

Lucky the financials are a bit shorter read!

No it took around 800 yrs to be fully completed but a lot less time to be destroyed.

[nztx]

No it took around 800 yrs to be fully completed but a lot less time to be destroyed.


Grant is trying hard .. but thankfully WHS looks like it should survive the onslaught ;)

[Waltzing]

off topic ..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_History_of_the_Decline_and_Fall_of_the_Roman_E mpire

or if you have the HBO series ROME..

[Beagle]

Lots of cost benefits still to come through -- staff reductions and newer IT systems.

Good point. Next week when I get the chance I will read the full annual report. In addition to what you've said last time I looked at the half year the weighted average lease term was only 4 years so there's plenty of scope for retail footprint optimization too through store within a store, refurbishing existing stores and culling unprofitable ones. It would be good if they can get the market into a profitable state, was quite a handbrake in FY21.
Very nice turnaround in Torpedo 7, lets hope for a lot of improvement in the market.com in FY22.

Very happy with the progress they're making.

[nztx]

Her exact words from the analyst presentation were :-

"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October "

What she said is open to interpretation but for what its worth my view of that is that currently New Zealand is already predominantly at level 2.

A very strong result. Looking ahead I have to concede today's covid numbers were disappointing which does open up the possibility of Auckland being in level 3 for some time to come but I note this will affect all retailers and WHS valuation looks truly compelling (on a historic normalized PE of ~ 8), by comparison to the others.

Would Joan dare try "Undeclaring" the dividend, if the northern centre with the elevated gambling joint is still showing
threatening Covid clouds though ? ;)

It was good enough to declare that the Wage Subsidy was not needed and should be repaid back to Govt.. after all ;)

[DonkeyKong]

Her exact words from the analyst presentation were :-

"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October "

What she said is open to interpretation but for what its worth my view of that is that currently New Zealand is already predominantly at level 2.

A very strong result. Looking ahead I have to concede today's covid numbers were disappointing which does open up the possibility of Auckland being in level 3 for some time to come but I note this will affect all retailers and WHS valuation looks truly compelling (on a historic normalized PE of ~ 8), by comparison to the others.


Exciting results today. Does anyone know if there is a recording of the presentation accessible? Or do they only make the slides accessible?

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars review. Was already Out Perform.

OUTPERFORM
The Warehouse Group (WHS) reported a very strong FY21 result helped by COVID-19 tailwinds and further progress on
key strategic initiatives as evidenced in gross margin delivery and record levels of profitability. We think it is unlikely that
WHS can repeat FY21 profit levels over the foreseeable future, but recognise that management is showing clear execution
progress on its retail modernisation process across the group. This provides confidence that a reasonable proportion of the
margin gains achieved to-date will be sustainable over the medium term. While we accept that current COVID-19
restrictions will cloud near term performance, which may limit visibility on further business process success through FY22,
we are confident that WHS has found a new earnings base substantially higher than pre CVOID-19 levels. With WHS
trading at ~11x PE on our FY23 estimates, a discount to key regional peers, we maintain an OUTPERFORM rating.
What's changed?
Gross margins bonanza demonstrates tangible improvements
Gross margins have lifted significantly through FY21 which follows a more gentle upswing in recent years. Key drivers have included
(1) lower clearance activity from improvements in inventory aging and stock turns, (2) reduced promotional activity as the every day
low pricing (EDLP) strategy has been implemented, and (3) a stock provision release. The latter is non-recurring and will weigh on
FY22 margins. Though further underlying benefits should accrue over the medium term, offsetting potential competitive
pressures from a new ERP system due later next year with enhanced inventory management capabilities.
FY22 will be challenged; normalisation assumed in FY23
Lockdowns and other COVID-19 restrictions have impacted the start to FY22. Year-to-date sales for the first eight weeks are down
-22% against the prior year. While a significant temporary increase in on-line demand helps partly mitigate the impact of store
closures, and pent up demand helps when lockdown ends, we believe WHS faces a meaningful decline in profits in FY22. It has yet to
apply for a government wage subsidy and appears unlikely to do so given the prior social pressure to repay its 2020 subsidy.
Balance sheet robust
WHS ended FY21 with net cash of NZ$161m and inventory at 'normalised' levels. Available liquidity to weather the current lockdown
was NZ$491m at year end, though the company states that cash has reduced significantly since then given the reduction in sales. The
final dividend of 17.5c is subject to New Zealand being 'predominantly' at Alert Level 2 from the end of October.

[Rawz]

Why will FY22 be meaningfully less than FY21??

2021 is basically a repeat of 2020 with no travel and lockdowns.

If people have been lockdown and cannot spend and cannot travel.... retail is going to suck up the dollars...

X-mas trading period is going to be a record of the ages.

Disc. Hold WHS, MHJ & HLG.

[Beagle]

Thanks GWD, appreciated.

[allfromacell]

I ordered some things from the market yesterday at midday which was at the cheapest price I could find across any retailer in NZ and it arrived this morning.


Very impressive and easy process, really happy with the UI and shopping experience, I’ll be a returning customer.

[BlackPeter]

Exciting results today. Does anyone know if there is a recording of the presentation accessible? Or do they only make the slides accessible?

"Presentation" was more a reading session. Really - they only read off the slides in a telephone conference. No questions asked afterwards - i.e. if you just read the slides you have all the info.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Good news for retail stocks: government says Auckland could drop to level 2, but with the border control around Auckland remaining in place. I think this signals an intent to drop to level 2 soon, but in a way that keeps Covid ringfenced to just Auckland (and so doesn’t create the impression that they are endangering rest of country by letting Auckland exit level 3 lockdown)

I would guess Oct 11th 11.59pm will be end of level 3.

(Cross posted on HLG & KPG threads)

[Waltzing]

NZX showing the upcoming dividend.

Price is very cheap ex cum the total div.



Code
Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


WHS (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/WHS)
17 Nov 2021
Final
17.500c
3.088c
6.806c
03 Dec 2021
NZD


Historical dividends

Code
Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


WHS (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/WHS)
06 Apr 2021
Interim
13.000c
2.294c
5.056c
22 Apr 2021
NZD


WHS (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/WHS)
16 Feb 2021
Special
5.000c
0.882c
1.944c
04 Mar 2021
NZD

[alokdhir]

NZX showing the upcoming dividend.

Price is very cheap ex cum the total div.



Code
Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


WHS (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/WHS)
17 Nov 2021
Final
17.500c
3.088c
6.806c
03 Dec 2021
NZD


Historical dividends



Code
Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


WHS (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/WHS)
06 Apr 2021
Interim
13.000c
2.294c
5.056c
22 Apr 2021
NZD


WHS (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/WHS)
16 Feb 2021
Special
5.000c
0.882c
1.944c
04 Mar 2021
NZD




Now the news is out ...so WHS will drift down till the lure of the 17.5 cents bring divvy hunters back in early Nov . Maybe $ 3.80 possible in next 2-4 weeks .. IMO

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Now the news is out ...so WHS will drift down till the lure of the 17.5 cents bring divvy hunters back in early Nov . Maybe $ 3.80 possible in next 2-4 weeks .. IMO

given the preoccupation by the market with short term concerns, I would say the share price movement over the next 2-4 weeks will be driven much more by expectations about Auckland alert level changes.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Chief digital officer leaving after 15 years - going to an “overseas retailer”

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380237

[see weed]

Now the news is out ...so WHS will drift down till the lure of the 17.5 cents bring divvy hunters back in early Nov . Maybe $ 3.80 possible in next 2-4 weeks .. IMO
10,000 WHS now at $4.04= $40,400 = $1750 on ex div day in 7 weeks. $40,400 in the bank at about 1% interest in 7 weeks = about $54. If you can tell me of a better return in 7 weeks, please let me know.:).

[alokdhir]

10,000 WHS now at $4.04= $40,400 = $1750 on ex div day in 7 weeks. $40,400 in the bank at about 1% interest in 7 weeks = about $54. If you can tell me of a better return in 7 weeks, please let me know.:).

I will just state one of the options possible ...If u buy WHS around $ 3.80 by end Oct then also u get $ 1750 Dividend plus get bonus 24 cents saving ...:D

[see weed]

I will just state one of the options possible ...If u buy WHS around $ 3.80 by end Oct then also u get $ 1750 Dividend plus get bonus 24 cents saving ...:D
I thought of that after posting my last post, so I will hold off and buy more at the lower price of $3.80. I would like to also buy more in the $3.90 to $4 range just in case it don't get down to $3.80. Then I will cover both bases.;)

[alokdhir]

I thought of that after posting my last post, so I will hold off and buy more at the lower price of $3.80. I would like to also buy more in the $3.90 to $4 range just in case it don't get down to $3.80. Then I will cover both bases.;)

I know u r a super smart operator which wins both ways :t_up:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

$3.80 would be an extremely unlikely scenario, unless there was significant further weakness across US markets. Much more likely to churn around the current level before bull flagging. Just need to cool off daily RSI and get closer to EMA's before the next run.

[Greekwatchdog]

I see Joans being buying a few...http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/380252/356130.pdf

[winner69]

I see TheMarket showing making a loss of $20.7 which was $5.9m less than F20

Must be a worry that the income/revenue which they show as coming from TheMarket and 1-Day is 17% down on F20 anlso 17% down on F19

Seems to be a bit of raving about this TheMarket but it doesn't seem to be helping growth ..... probably one of those loss making businesses that one day in the distant future will pay its way .....after Rome wasn't built in a day and Amazon was useless for years

[Beagle]

Yes, I have been pondering that too. Losses like that are not chump change. I can't help wondering how much longer they will persist if the top line isn't growing ? You would think in a pandemic shopping from home would be growing ? Maybe in these more challenging times its overdue management take a reality check regarding their aspirations to be a N.Z. version of Amazon ?

[DonkeyKong]

Yes, I have been pondering that too. Losses like that are not chump change. I can't help wondering how much longer they will persist if the top line isn't growing ? You would think in a pandemic shopping from home would be growing ? Maybe in these more challenging times its overdue management take a reality check regarding their aspirations to be a N.Z. version of Amazon ?

I wonder if it’s related to lack of brand awareness. For example, I’ve had people ask me if TheMarket is a legitimate site or is it a scam site. And I would wonder if the average person knows what it is. I even find myself forgetting TheMarket exists when I want to shop online.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The market “online sessions” were up 138% year on year, so they are obviously doing something right - will give them some runway to see where that leads. I really think they should consider bringing last mile delivery in-house, using NZ couriers etc is not good enough long term, you are never going to get same day delivery with them (Amazon is currently striving for 1 hour delivery in its home market). Just yesterday NZ post said parcels were taking up to 10 days to deliver in Auckland. Unacceptable.

13028

[nztx]

I thought of that after posting my last post, so I will hold off and buy more at the lower price of $3.80. I would like to also buy more in the $3.90 to $4 range just in case it don't get down to $3.80. Then I will cover both bases.;)


So the real question is which way you look at the crystal ball on where the SP goes after going ex Div .. ;)

If it stays down by the Cash div and no more - then you're up by the Imputation credits less any notional brokerage
on a potential jumping out. If sinks by the full taxable div then you're out by notional brokerage.
Any further lower, you ask which did I bother .. or perhaps dont worry - bottom drawer - bound to come back ? :)

theoretically on the ex day, it loses the amount of the div, but then if some followers lose interest (perhaps too busy navigating
the warehouse or wanting to raise coin so they can) or just go off chasing another target company in focus, it could
sink further .. but the opposite could also occur too ;)

Did someone say $5 bucks or was that only if Level 2 in the Northern Sector in next 3 weeks .. or not now ? ;)

Imagine all those eager beavers with stuffed locked-down wallets & a lingering pent up urge for some Retail Therapy,
or could the dream be postponed even longer if Spinmaster Hipkin's best dreams turn into further chapters of Covid
nightmares & more prolonged agony .. ;)

[winner69]

A bit difficult to work out what TheMarket.com brings in the way of revenue / income.

Segment info in AR says

TheMarket.com revenues were $54.455m (pcp $62.520m) and then a footnote that says . TheMarket includes 1-day sales of $49.8 million (2020: $61.1 million)

That sort of says TheMarket.com revenues were only $4.7m (pcp $1.4m) which really seems stuff all for the effort

Don't really have any idea how the two work or even if they are the same thing. I'm thinking 1-Day might be 'real' sales (what customers pay) and that for THeMarket they get a cut of what go through

But when you see the metrics like 19 million sessions (up 138%) and 218,000 active customers (up 207%) it all justn't make any sense

Seems a lot of effort and resource to make a big loss with only hope that one day in the future it will be HUGE

On the other hand with metrics like it has if it was a stand alone business and listed it would get say $0.5 billion valuation

Makes WHS on paper even cheaper - TheMarket worth $1.40 and other WHS operations $2.70 on a sum of the parts basis

Now that's just stupid





That sort

[winner69]

Couldn't help but notice this comment on Red Sheds performance in annual results announcement

Grocery has been a standout category across the year, as well as home, gardening and toys all achieving double digit growth

[Mudfish]

So the real question is which way you look at the crystal ball on where the SP goes after going ex Div .. ;)

If it stays down by the Cash div and no more - then you're up by the Imputation credits less any notional brokerage
on a potential jumping out. If sinks by the full taxable div then you're out by notional brokerage.
Any further lower, you ask which did I bother .. or perhaps dont worry - bottom drawer - bound to come back ? :)

theoretically on the ex day, it loses the amount of the div, but then if some followers lose interest (perhaps too busy navigating
the warehouse or wanting to raise coin so they can) or just go off chasing another target company in focus, it could
sink further .. but the opposite could also occur too ;)

Did someone say $5 bucks or was that only if Level 2 in the Northern Sector in next 3 weeks .. or not now ? ;)

Imagine all those eager beavers with stuffed locked-down wallets & a lingering pent up urge for some Retail Therapy,
or could the dream be postponed even longer if Spinmaster Hipkin's best dreams turn into further chapters of Covid
nightmares & more prolonged agony .. ;)

Hey NZTX, your post seems to be on the same thought path as me. Before this report it was an easy buy situation due to 160+ million figure to work with. We had some pretty solid info as to what was happening next. Post report, we have shifted into the unknown. It's very hard to see the short, medium or long term likely result, IMO. There are now no facts to work with. I don't like uncertainty, so have halved my holdings. It may go really well going forward, it may go badly. I just can't tell. One thing I do like is Joan buying shares late last week with her own money. That is definitely a vote of confidence. Overall, your 'crystal ball' comment seems appropriate.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

A bit difficult to work out what TheMarket.com brings in the way of revenue / income.

Segment info in AR says

TheMarket.com revenues were $54.455m (pcp $62.520m) and then a footnote that says . TheMarket includes 1-day sales of $49.8 million (2020: $61.1 million)

That sort of says TheMarket.com revenues were only $4.7m (pcp $1.4m) which really seems stuff all for the effort

Don't really have any idea how the two work or even if they are the same thing. I'm thinking 1-Day might be 'real' sales (what customers pay) and that for THeMarket they get a cut of what go through

But when you see the metrics like 19 million sessions (up 138%) and 218,000 active customers (up 207%) it all justn't make any sense

Seems a lot of effort and resource to make a big loss with only hope that one day in the future it will be HUGE

On the other hand with metrics like it has if it was a stand alone business and listed it would get say $0.5 billion valuation

Makes WHS on paper even cheaper - TheMarket worth $1.40 and other WHS operations $2.70 on a sum of the parts basis

Now that's just stupid





That sort

I think you are right that themarket.com sales are not the gross value, but their net percentage take (which should be very high margin). Not sure how that works when themarket.com sells a WHS product, maybe they just use a standard commission rate their as well.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hopefully no level 3 in Hamilton announced today - but wouldn’t surprise me. Be a bit harder to put a border ring around Waikato compared to Auckland that’s for sure. Maybe a 2.5 where they close cafes/restaurants/bars (where patrons remove masks), but leave retail open (perhaps wishful thinking on my part)

[Old mate]

Could be level 3 for north island with locations of interest from Auckland to Palmerston north

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Level 3 for Hamilton. Government specifically saying likelihood of level 3 lockdown in a region with Covid detected will be directly linked to the vaccination rate of that region (above 90%: no level 3, below 90%: level 3 lockdown).

seems like a fairly clear signal that Auckland won’t be moving down to level 2 until they hit 90% vaccination rate (currently on 84%).

using 1st dose figures here.

[winner69]

Level 3 for Hamilton. Government specifically saying likelihood of level 3 lockdown in a region with Covid detected will be directly linked to the vaccination rate of that region (above 90%: no level 3, below 90%: level 3 lockdown).

seems like a fairly clear signal that Auckland won’t be moving down to level 2 until they hit 90% vaccination rate (currently on 84%).

using 1st dose figures here.

Honesty based Level 3 means Hamilton WHS shoppers who don't do contactless stuff can whizz up the road to the Cambridge Warehouse

No worries

[Waltzing]

"means Hamilton WHS shoppers who don't do contactless stuff can whizz up the road"

cambridge.... that is south of hamilton and hamilton is now level 3, south waikato is level 2.

good news for WHS and other retailers , container charges down out of china.

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/financials/

As I predicted before the result when the average analyst forecast for FY22 was $110m, we would see significant revisions upwards to that figure once the FY21 result was released and analysts had recalibrated their numbers and sure enough its come to pass and the revised average analyst forecast for FY22 is here and its $126m after tax for eps of 37 cps.

Average target price is $4.17. FY22 PE based on average forecast is $4.10 / 0.37 = 11.1

Analysts are expecting modest earnings growth in FY23 and FY24 with eps growing to 40 cps. This looks very conservative to me and I expect further upgrades in due course.

Hopefully they can get on top of the Waikato cases and the slightly higher number of cases in recent days leads to a surge in vaccinations.
Things will go back to a new normal sometime in early 2022 and WHS is well positioned for a massive rebound in sales.

Being honest about it I wish they would take the wage subsidies in the meantime to stop the cash burn as they can always pay them back later when the bounce-back occurs like they did last time, (if they really feel they must). The directors are taking a very brave approach with shareholders money and basically saying we don't need Government support, (kowtowing to Spindy and her legions of woke colleagues and supporters who think any form of corporate support is egregiously evil), but I think Delta and its transmissibility are different and a lower risk approach is more appropriate and would ensure they can weather this storm no matter how enduring it is.

[Panda-NZ-]

0% interest rates, unprecented stock market and property boom, plenty of support already.

Spare some thought for the WHS customers affected by inflation without help.

[Waltzing]

The ILSP party tried to juggle all its balls at once but dropped the most dangerous ball.

Yes take the money ASAP.

Thank goodness south of hamilton still free.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/financials/

As I predicted before the result when the average analyst forecast for FY22 was $110m, we would see significant revisions upwards to that figure once the FY21 result was released and analysts had recalibrated their numbers and sure enough its come to pass and the revised average analyst forecast for FY22 is here and its $126m after tax for eps of 37 cps.

Average target price is $4.17. FY22 PE based on average forecast is $4.10 / 0.37 = 11.1

Analysts are expecting modest earnings growth in FY23 and FY24 with eps growing to 40 cps. This looks very conservative to me and I expect further upgrades in due course.

Hopefully they can get on top of the Waikato cases and the slightly higher number of cases in recent days leads to a surge in vaccinations.
Things will go back to a new normal sometime in early 2022 and WHS is well positioned for a massive rebound in sales.

Being honest about it I wish they would take the wage subsidies in the meantime to stop the cash burn as they can always pay them back later when the bounce-back occurs like they did last time, (if they really feel they must). The directors are taking a very brave approach with shareholders money and basically saying we don't need Government support, (kowtowing to Spindy and her legions of woke colleagues and supporters who think any form of corporate support is egregiously evil), but I think Delta and its transmissibility are different and a lower risk approach is more appropriate and would ensure they can weather this storm no matter how enduring it is.

Good to see FY22 earnings estimate increasing to meet reality.

I wouldn’t think Warehouse actually qualifies for wage subsidy at present from a nationwide level? With most of the country at level 2 everywhere outside of Auckland (and from tomorrow Hamilton) has seen fully open retail, and Auckland at level 3 has enabled click and collect shopping.

For instance there are 24 Auckland Redsheds out of 90 Nationwide total - so 73% of stores have been open as normal since level 2 arrived outside of Auckland.

[Beagle]

At present they may not but they would have qualified at level 4.

[Waltzing]

Has an economist calculated the boast to savings from lockdowns? Not the damaged to private enterprise which is lost revenue.

Some very nice dinning venues gone for good in auckland. This one is just ground hog day to wrecked revenues. This one is anything but quick and sharp. Its a policy of a big cuts to revenues if level 3 stays for months. Surprised the Market is still holding up.

look like the R Fyfes slow train wreck hasnt come to a stop yet.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

(Deleted message)

[Habits]

"slow train wreck" ... also applies to govt reputation and the publics confidence. There is no viable alternative unfortunately

[nztx]

"slow train wreck" ... also applies to govt reputation and the publics confidence. There is no viable alternative unfortunately


They dug the hole & let Joe Public have the pleasure of burying the spinning politicians deep in the trench
for all their hollow populist spinning on what they were or mostly haven't and wont achieve .. ;)

there must come a point where Joe Public has to consider the baseless spinning was in fact lies
on what is & was unattainable and all that swallowed them have been in the main deceived ;)

[Waltzing]

WHS SP handle may well be good value for longer as the Door to Door testing has revealed cases in South Auckland.

It all went South for the GOVT in Auckland, South Auckland. Own goal.

[BlackPeter]

... and here comes the new Chief Digital Officer: Sarah Kearney

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380298

I suppose her previous experience with alibaba and Lazada (an alibaba company) in Singapore might come handy for the job ;) ;

Looks like a good match.

[Waltzing]

24 months tops ..thats the time frame for this one. The Kanga's are bouncing in AUS; Tourism on the move.

[winner69]

BNZ says The BNZ has revised its economic outlook downwards and warned of a tougher Christmas retail period ahead as New Zealand transitions away from a "zero Covid" strategy.

No Christmas trading bonanza it seems

[LaserEyeKiwi]

BNZ says The BNZ has revised its economic outlook downwards and warned of a tougher Christmas retail period ahead as New Zealand transitions away from a "zero Covid" strategy.

No Christmas trading bonanza it seems

Do you have a link? Would seem to imply that the reserve bank aren’t going to be as aggressive as expected with OCR lifts if they expect economy to falter.

Personally I don’t see why retail spending would be any less this Xmas than last - level 2 for retail isn’t that different from level 3.

The real impact from level 2 is on the events industry (which basically remains shutdown) and to a lesser extent restaurants/bars (although they are pretty much full down here in Welly).

Individual savings accounts are bulging, credit card balances at decade lows, still no overseas holidays available, unemployment still near record lows, minimum wage & benefits have been raised, aucklanders with a couple of months of pent up demand for instore shopping = it all equals are booming Xmas.

[iceman]

Do you have a link? Would seem to imply that the reserve bank aren’t going to be as aggressive as expected with OCR lifts if they expect economy to falter.

Personally I don’t see why retail spending would be any less this Xmas than last - level 2 for retail isn’t that different from level 3.

The real impact from level 2 is on the events industry (which basically remains shutdown) and to a lesser extent restaurants/bars (although they are pretty much full down here in Welly).

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economic-outlook-dims-as-nz-moves-away-from-zero-covid-strategy-bnz/4CSPF5D7OFWBBF3A7XOSHC2WQA/

[Waltzing]

How often are they right? Bank outlooks?

ive got requests for beach trips already and need a new roof rack for boards because the Sea Sucker's can crack glass roofs.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economic-outlook-dims-as-nz-moves-away-from-zero-covid-strategy-bnz/4CSPF5D7OFWBBF3A7XOSHC2WQA/
Looks like a pretty fair assessment of the situation to me whilst at the same time acknowledging that all economists forecasts are not dissimilar in their reliability to long term weather forecasts.

[Louloubell]

I think we will see the same retail bounce back as last year after the lock down. What is different : no overseas travel, money is still cheap, people have been cooped up, and home owners feel rich. And saving is not a favourite Kiwi past time.

Holding TRA and WHS in generous proportions.

[winner69]

How often are they right? Bank outlooks?

.

Probably record to be being right is as good as projections / forecasts made by us on Sharetrader

[Waltzing]

well travel Journo exiting auckland in stuff today is saying its going to leak.. Remember all those Stuff MIQ returnee's saying its going to leak... just saw some ut's heading north to hamilton on the expressway...

if level 3 hits central north island it will be in wellington same day..

Now that willl hit WHS and every retailer SP or it should..

out in the farm lands where PC culture has yet to influence cow shed culture... they can see its all going Tits up North...

[Rawz]

Remember when the bank economists said house prices would drop 10-20% because of covid- LOL. Instead they jumped 30% or whatever.

The one thing to remember is banks only care about themselves and their profits (not saying its a bad thing- just the reality). A few years back the CEO of ANZ penned an article in the NZ Herald talking about how house prices were too hot and there should be restrictions put in place by the RBNZ. He called for mandated deposit requirements on investors and FHBs, eventually of course this did happen. It was written in a way that portrayed ANZ as a caring, concerned corporate citizen. But the reality was ANZ were low on capital and were going to lose market share if they kept doing low/no deposit lending. So whatever these banks say take it with a grain of salt imo.

Anecdotal evidence here.. but in my circle of friends we are all up about $400-$500 a week during lockdowns because no daycare, no restaurants, no bars and no parking/petrol bills. I'm still of the thinking that retail is going to do very well over Christmas and the proceeding months. I am happy to be holding WHS shares.

[Beagle]

Yeah I can go and have a some drinks with a mate on Wednesday :t_up: Life is getting better.
Lets celebrate https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/arnotts-tim-tam-value-pack-365g/R1334773.html

[Waltzing]

March will come around quickly.. last year and half went by in a jiffy..

The March interim will be the much awaited news.

[winner69]

Yeah I can go and have a some drinks with a mate on Wednesday :t_up: Life is getting better.
Lets celebrate https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/arnotts-tim-tam-value-pack-365g/R1334773.html

Remember to stay in the backyard of choice

Maybe demand for outdoor furniture from a Red Shed will go up

[Beagle]

Remember to stay in the backyard of choice

Maybe demand for outdoor furniture from a Red Shed will go up

Yes, absolutely ! Outdoor furniture is going to be flying off the shelves !

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Very interesting to hear retail will be reopening in Auckland during Level 3 (step 2). Great news for WHS! Hopefully kicks in next week!

They should have used Step A-B-C instead of 1-2-3.

[Waltzing]

Biggest wins for the last week has been AUS tourism... not NZ retail but expecting big things by April from this sector.

[Habits]

"out in the farm lands where PC culture has yet to influence cow shed culture..."
Love the comment, one of your best

[Waltzing]

Hate to think what might come next for ANZ but lets hope vaccination rate are up as is a summer of retail summer shopping, beaching, surfing, fishing, golf ect.. and gardening!

[nztx]

Hate to think what might come next for ANZ but lets hope vaccination rate are up as is a summer of retail summer shopping, beaching, surfing, fishing, golf ect.. and gardening!

What's going to come next ? - try further more virulent strains , decreasing effectiveness of the jab - so updated
more effective jabs - say every 3 months to actually work ? .. but who knows ;)

but do increased rounds of the Jan work ? did they in Israel with how many Jab rounds so far
and things are still going ballistic ? ;)

And from the Virology desk in the Room - try a truckload of cases who received 'a safe jab' - well that's what the
Politician pillick pack's BS generating apparatus would like everyone to believe .. ;)

On Blood pills ? thinners .. blood pressure issues etc ? ;)

then you'll love what comes next (if you managed to survive) -

Anyone aware of the testing the various vaccines have undergone .. ? then on to
Human trial population .. Feel free to try to check out the prevalence of blood clots
occurring after the jab - that's right - you read correct and these things go real well
with Blood issues - thinners etc. There are cases around you arising from the effects
some of them right after receiving the jab - of course this is not what Officialdom
wants you to hear .. let's see what the next 3-6 months brings out on this ;)

Of course no-one can ignore a determined Political Spin telling everyone
it's completely safe .. ;) Why are Virologists pointing to in some spheres
to something completely different ? Why are we not being told of this ?

Of the true effective lifespan of the Vaccine as well ? Perhaps to cover
the clumsy longwinded effort at even achieving a moderate project vax
anywhere near a respectable % (that is assuming it's safe for everyone)

That's right - I said everyone .. well you have to assume that by the tune of the
Spinners in the Glass Towers it has to be .. or is it ? ;)

So safe the vaccinated still catch it, pass it on too .. What sort of Vaccine
is it again ? How effective ? .. and for whom ? .. and for how long ? ;)

Perhaps a Warehouse Plastic Bucket over everyone's heads would be safer ? ;)


Note to self: Research Covid Vax companies - the one or few with real answers
that go well beyond the now may be the next portfolio maker

Note 2 to self: Empty truck needed - WHS

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What's going to come next ? - try further more virulent strains , decreasing effectiveness of the jab - so updated
more effective jabs - say every 3 months to actually work ? .. but who knows ;)

And from the Virology desk in the Room - try a truckload of cases who received 'a safe jab' - well that's what the
Politician pillick pack's BS generating apparatus would like everyone to believe .. ;)

On Blood pills ? thinners .. blood pressure issues etc ? ;)

then you'll love what comes next (if you managed to survive) -

Anyone aware of the testing the various vaccines have undergone .. ? then on to
Human trial population .. Feel free to try to check out the prevalence of blood clots
occurring after the jab - that's right - you read correct and these things go real well
with Blood issues - thinners etc. There are cases around you arising from the effects
some of them right after receiving the jab - of course this is not what Officialdom
wants you to hear .. let's see what the next 3-6 months brings out on this ;)

Of course no-one can ignore a determined Political Spin telling everyone
it's completely safe .. ;) Why are Virologists pointing to in some spheres
to something completely different ? Why are we not being told of this ?

Of the true effective lifespan of the Vaccine as well ? Perhaps to cover
the clumsy longwinded effort at even achieving a moderate project vax
anywhere near a respectable % (that is assuming it's safe for everyone)

That's right - I said everyone .. well you have to assume that by the tune of the
Spinners in the Glass Towers it has to be .. or is it ? ;)

So safe the vaccinated still catch it, pass it on too .. What sort of Vaccine
is it again ? How effective ? .. and for whom ? .. and for how long ? ;)

Perhaps a Warehouse Plastic Bucket over everyone's heads would be safer ? ;)


antivaxxer alert.

[nztx]

antivaxxer alert.


No - actually - DYOR - Be my guest :)

[Waltzing]

Oh no that derailed the thread a bit..:eek2:..

have faith the 3 stage plan for healthy living and picnics (Act leaders summary) will get everyone practising early for summer.

Its the fact that level 3 will end by xmas no matter what as the border is release before xmas according to the Right Honourable Health minister..

The OCR surely cant be lifted if level 3 persists but the deficit will go up for sure...

All we want to know is will the retail shopper do their duty through think and thin, fair weather and foul, pestilence and plague , rain thunder and hail.

Its going to be a nail biter this summer for sure until end of march market updates. :scared:

[Snoopy]

Note to self: Research Covid Vax companies - the one or few with real answers that go well beyond the now may be the next portfolio maker


-One 'off topic' post here before I return to the Coronavirus thread-

Don't believe everything you read on the net, regarding Covid-19!

But you can believe this. Over the next few months you have a choice of taking part in two free Covid-19 trials.

The first is run by the Ministry of Health under Doctor Bloomfield. You have a choice as to whether you enroll in this one. With over 500 million doses given out worldwide, this 'trial' is proving very successful in keeping Pfizer vaccine recipients out of hospital. On very rare occasions, from rare medical conditions present in less than one in a million people, a handful of people, who did not receive timely medical intervention, have died.

The second Covid-19 trial is being run by Dr Delta. This one you do not get the choice of choosing whether or not to participate. Dr Delta also likes to enroll your whole family too. But so far 4.55m people worldwide in this trial have died - not so good. Yet the good news is, if you choose Dr Bloomfield's trial, there is much less of a chance that Dr Delta will come calling for you and your family.

My plea to you. Do not put your family through Dr Delta's trial!

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

"Dr Delta also likes to enroll your whole family too."

Classic ...

[nztx]

-One 'off topic' post here before I return to the Coronavirus thread-

Don't believe everything you read on the net, regarding Covid-19!

But you can believe this. Over the next few months you have a choice of taking part in two free Covid-19 trials.

The first is run by the Ministry of Health under Doctor Bloomfield. You have a choice as to whether you enroll in this one. With over 500 million doses given out worldwide, this 'trial' is proving very successful in keeping Pfizer vaccine recipients out of hospital. On very rare occasions, from rare medical conditions present in less than one in a million people, a handful of people, who did not receive timely medical intervention, have died.

The second Covid-19 trial is being run by Dr Delta. This one you do not get the choice of choosing whether or not to participate. Dr Delta also likes to enroll your whole family too. But so far 4.55m people worldwide in this trial have died - not so good. Yet the good news is, if you choose Dr Bloomfield's trial, there is much less of a chance that Dr Delta will come calling for you and your family.

My plea to you. Do not put your family through Dr Delta's trial!

SNOOPY


Snoops .. sorry but I don't believe everything I see or hear
being the enquiring sort of bod, much like yourself

For relevance, a few clauses near the foot of the earlier posting appear to cover things

Now I don't buy a particular company because of solely what some-one said or
someone posted 176 or so posts ago .. we're all trained to do our DD, enquire, interrogate
what is in front of us, and the facts V the propaganda.

You state 1 in a million = Rare. Try heftier % post jab exhibiting a certain blood content afterwards ;)


Some Politicians in the past have been known to mislead, misdirect etc in sometimes
very gravest of times resulting in serious consequences - 60 years ago and 20
something years prior and periodically before. Because a Politician says get in
a queue - follow each other down to a cliff and then all jump - would you, without
knowing whys wherefores etc ? ;)

Or for that matter The Glass Towers decreeing everyone must buy 10 x as many AIR
as they have WHS, if that was a Political spin - would you follow it without interrogating
the suggestion & facts ? ;)

I bet you wouldn't :)

I would be tempted to do exactly the opposite ;)

Everyone is fully entitled to all of the data, risks etc rather than following like sheep
not enquiring, not being told.. or being fed some of it, just what is convenient, or only
the sections that are politically correct .. required as to make an informed decision.

Govt's would be the first to pounce on anyone else trying a similar propaganda exercise,
but alas the case is completely different when they are the ones up to it .. ;)

That is no different in looking at buying TWS, exercising one's personal choice or otherwise
on Vax etc

[allfromacell]

This is exactly why it's so difficult to go from 80% to 90%.

[nztx]

This is exactly why it's so difficult to go from 80% to 90%.


Blame the system - for decade after decade everyone has been conditioned to question, interrogate the reasoning

Nothing wrong with that

Leaders should know they are absolutely required to have all the answers and produce all the data & facts..

More so with a lot who have more fails than completed success missions currently on their scorecard ;)

Now, the new appliance I'm buying from TWS tomorrow will come with all the Gen, manuals, guarantees
warrantees etc.. ;)

Can't not like TWS looking forward :)

[winner69]

Brad from Infometrics said on radio that spend is up 6% since most of the country went to L2 ….and the rebound should see retail doing well in the coming months

He’s an economist so must be right, especially if we agree with their view of the world

Good people economists

[Snoopy]

Perhaps a Warehouse Plastic Bucket over everyone's heads would be safer ? ;)


I am impressed at your ability to keep 'on topic' nztx. So just like Warehouse customers racing off to their favourite store to get the best deal, I shall take your off topic content here and transfer it to the Coronavirus thread where you can learn about the best virus avoidance deal. Out of courtesy, I would ask you to remove your Warehouse bucket from your head when you arrive there though.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

CFO buys more shares

Things must be going to get better

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/380363/356267.pdf

[Rawz]

CFO buys more shares

Things must be going to get better

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/380363/356267.pdf

Nice announcement to wake up to. Following the chairwoman buying.

Very cool

[winner69]

Nice announcement to wake up to. Following the chairwoman buying.

Very cool

Yep ….accountants only buy when they are on certain winners

[winner69]

Oram seems to buy 15,000 shares at about this time of the year

Now has 45,000 at average $2.95

Token gesture though .......Still hasn't got as many as beagle or me ..... is that a bad sign ....maybe he not as committed or excited about WHS as we are.....he should pull his finger out and buy more .....jeez he's probably earning $600k plus a year

Though some might say beagle and me are stupid having more than Oram has

And beagle probably holds more than Chair Joan (I'm a few less than her)

[Waltzing]

Waiting on AUS , NZ retail performance with bated breath.

Tui's have stopped fighting over the yellow flowers and c21 yesterday in a warm spring day. Maybe the spread will slow with summer.

Market might wait 6 months while waiting to see what the future brings for the economy. Prices tend to rise long before results are reported as in AUS tourism which is now a good year ahead of itself.

[Sideshow Bob]

Nice announcement to wake up to. Following the chairwoman buying.

Very cool

Many reasons why they might sell their shares, only one reason they buy.....

[Beagle]

Oram seems to buy 15,000 shares at about this time of the year

Now has 45,000 at average $2.95

Token gesture though .......Still hasn't got as many as beagle or me ..... is that a bad sign ....maybe he not as committed or excited about WHS as we are.....he should pull his finger out and buy more .....jeez he's probably earning $600k plus a year

Though some might say beagle and me are stupid having more than Oram has

And beagle probably holds more than Chair Joan (I'm a few less than her)

Your mate Nick bought some more at $4.10 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/380420/356330.pdf

[winner69]

Your mate Nick bought some more at $4.10 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/380420/356330.pdf

Jeez he only had 20,000 before this (from 2019) and bought 50,000 the other day

Couldn't been too confident in outcomes of his strategy up to now but now he's going big....what confidence

You've got more than this no doubt ....I'm not quite there

But then Nick happy with his $2 million soon to be $3 million pay packet

[Waltzing]

3.80 was mentioned , topping up there? since the market doesnt believe the div will keep going. What happens when in 4 years time it does keep going... what then?

[bull....]

with nz moving to a living with covid strategy and rate rises coming tomorrow i think retail might not be as strong as this year going forward. time will tell

[Beagle]

Jeez he only had 20,000 before this (from 2019) and bought 50,000 the other day

Couldn't been too confident in outcomes of his strategy up to now but now he's going big....what confidence

You've got more than this no doubt ....I'm not quite there

But then Nick happy with his $2 million soon to be $3 million pay packet

He bought 24,424 this morning @ $4.10. Probably looked at the new average target price of analysts of $4.45 or the highest analyst at $4.70 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/ and thought, what could possibly go wrong here because I'm in charge !

[winner69]

Just as well TWG is BIG and will survive as a third of (smaller) retailers don’t think they will survive the next twelve months

Punters need to shop somewhere ….go to the Warehouse etc


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-third-of-retailers-unsure-theyll-survive-the-next-year-report/JQX3V4GHWCG63CDYG4IK5HAK7A/

[alokdhir]

This time NZ folks especially the ones who shop mainly at WHS are in deeper trouble then before financially too ....So I wont be betting big on big improvements in sales after we become normal ( which is going to be different now as we decided to live with Covid ) . If WHS can keep similar levels of revenues and improve margins from efficiency and cost saving that will be the best outcome ahead . Maintaining eps thus dividends is the key

[winner69]

This time NZ folks especially the ones who shop mainly at WHS are in deeper trouble then before financially too ....So I wont be betting big on big improvements in sales after we become normal ( which is going to be different now as we decided to live with Covid ) . If WHS can keep similar levels of revenues and improve margins from efficiency and cost saving that will be the best outcome ahead . Maintaining eps thus dividends is the key

Alokdhir says ‘This time NZ folks especially the ones who shop mainly at WHS are in deeper trouble then before financially too ....So I wont be betting big on big improvements in sales after we become normal’

I’m tending to agree with that view …signs are out there, esp post Xmas

And further margin expansion after last years great effort is problematical.

Just keeping an open mind and not being totally carried away with the hype …

[Waltzing]

If they keep EPS at this level and improve efficiency the share price will go up.

Im sure MR B would be very happy with this Div level.

In 2 year's a new round of vaccines mod's could tip the battle in the human favour.

Yes it looks like there is a bigger number of non team members than the govt thought.

[Rawz]

Alokdhir says ‘This time NZ folks especially the ones who shop mainly at WHS are in deeper trouble then before financially too ....So I wont be betting big on big improvements in sales after we become normal’

I’m tending to agree with that view …signs are out there

And further margin expansion after last years great effort is problematical.

Just keeping an open mind and not being carried away with the hype.

What signs are you referring to? With the wage subsidy and lockdowns meaning you cant spend on much more than food I would have thought household balance sheets (on avg) looking pretty good.

[Waltzing]

biggest city in the country in level 2-3 for another 8 weeks at least.

Imagine if they cant control it? Level 2.5 till when?

it will impact spending once government runs out of sub's...

they stopped the current game plan because the government running out reserve rain day funds.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Moving to a 'living with covid' strategy is going to see services sectors struggle over the next 6-12 months in my opinion. This may also impact retail, however people should have more money to spend in retail as it won't be spent on services.

I don't expect to see massive sales or margin growth over the coming years as headwinds are certainly appearing. However, even if the bottom line is maintained at current levels the SP right now is still cheap.

[Waltzing]

" SP right now is still cheap"

market will want to see actual numbers on this one but if and when that SP should move up a lot...

[Beagle]

Moving to a 'living with covid' strategy is going to see services sectors struggle over the next 6-12 months in my opinion. This may also impact retail, however people should have more money to spend in retail as it won't be spent on services.

I don't expect to see massive sales or margin growth over the coming years as headwinds are certainly appearing. However, even if the bottom line is maintained at current levels the SP right now is still cheap.


biggest city in the country in level 2-3 for another 8 weeks at least.

Imagine if they cant control it? Level 2.5 till when?

it will impact spending once government runs out of sub's...

they stopped the current game plan because the government running out reserve rain day funds.
Living with Covid

Good posts that nicely encapsulate the outlook ahead and risks. Market screener has the average analyst at $126m for FY22 which is 37 cps which seems like a fair and reasonable estimate to me and puts WHS on a forward PE of 11 which is consistent with a low growth company which is what the analysts are predicting in the years ahead with eps slowly growing to 38 and 40 cents in FY23 and FY24 respectively.
Analyst consensus price target of $4.45 feels about right but this is a 12 month price target and Waltzing has nicely articulated the risks. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/financials/

Downgrade to Hold

The current share price level seems fairly balanced to me in terms of risk v reward and I have downgraded to hold and recently adjusted my portfolio allocation accordingly.

[Waltzing]

Yes a Hold... but who did not buy total holdings below 3.70 and some well below, will be sitting on big gains already.

When the EPS comes in at or above forecast and this Div holds, the scramble will be on for the laggards and the Beagles will be sitting pretty.

[winner69]

Ha ha Beagle made my day big time

It seems he's been selling shares to Nick ....maybe even to Chair Joan

Well done - insiders buying not always a good sign

[alokdhir]

Yes a Hold... but who did not buy total holdings below 3.70 and some well below, will be sitting on big gains already.

When the EPS comes in at or above forecast and this Div holds, the scramble will be on for the laggards and the Beagles will be sitting pretty.

His hold means ...getting out . Like HLG gone ...it was hold @ $ 7 . WHS will be gone sooner then latter ....OCA holding will go up ...:p

[Beagle]

Ha ha Beagle made my day big time

It seems he's been selling shares to Nick ....maybe even to Chair Joan

Well done - insiders buying not always a good sign

Thanks mate. As you know, one key advantage retail investors have in the lead up to an annual result announcement is they can still buy, whereas insiders will be in a close out period. I imagine they would have loved to buy at ~ $3.50 in the lead up to the result not at over $4 afterwards and LOL yes I can confirm that the same morning the CEO Nick declared he bought at $4.10 I sold a parcel at that price and the same day Joan (Chair) bought some at $4.11 I also sold some at that price.

Still holding a moderate stake in WHS and HLG.

[winner69]

Thanks mate. As you know, one key advantage retail investors have in the lead up to an annual result announcement is they can still buy, whereas insiders will be in a close out period. I imagine they would have loved to buy at ~ $3.50 in the lead up to the result not at over $4 afterwards and LOL yes I can confirm that the same morning the CEO Nick declared he bought at $4.10 I sold a parcel at that price and the same day Joan (Chair) bought some at $4.11 I also sold some at that price.

Still holding a moderate stake in WHS and HLG.

That's spooky ..... you should have sold out completely and they could have bought more:)

[Joshuatree]

Not forgetting 17.5c and 3.088c div x 18th nov

[winner69]

Thanks mate. As you know, one key advantage retail investors have in the lead up to an annual result announcement is they can still buy, whereas insiders will be in a close out period. I imagine they would have loved to buy at ~ $3.50 in the lead up to the result not at over $4 afterwards and LOL yes I can confirm that the same morning the CEO Nick declared he bought at $4.10 I sold a parcel at that price and the same day Joan (Chair) bought some at $4.11 I also sold some at that price.

Still holding a moderate stake in WHS and HLG.

Hope Nick doesn't lament his latest buy - he'd be saying 'I'd should have known better and not bought off Beagle'

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I would caution leaning in to heavily on relying on the overall retail sector growth expectations for evaluating future WHS income prospects.

The vast majority of the increase in WHS huge profit growth has come from internal optimization efforts rather than the broad nationwide retail growth environment.

[Beagle]

JT makes a fair point about the forthcoming dividend and the fact its cum such a sizeable dividend isn't lost on me but it hasn't gone unnoticed that there appears to be an element on conditionality around that dividend. Also, WHS has a precedent of cancelling a dividend due to covid in the past so its not an absolute certainty in my opinion.

I also note that trading down 22% year to date is a fairly serious situation and the comment regarding the cash burn I am sure wasn't missed by anyone on here.

Looking further ahead analysts are predicting dividends of 27 cps for FY22 which is (27 / 0.72) 37.5 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits and represents a gross yield of 9.1% on a share price of $4.10 or on a look through the pending dividend, assuming its paid, to theoretical ex divvy price of ($4.10 - 17.5 cps) = $3.925 the gross yield is 37.5 / 392.5 = 9.6% which is a compelling yield (assuming they can actually afford to pay it).

The thinking behind my move to a hold is that the widespread malaise being felt across the Auckland region at present will eventually spread to the rest of N.Z. as the whole country has to come to terms with living with Covid.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

JT makes a fair point about the forthcoming dividend and the fact its cum such a sizeable dividend isn't lost on me but it hasn't gone unnoticed that there appears to be an element on conditionality around that dividend. Also, WHS has a precedent of cancelling a dividend due to covid in the past so its not an absolute certainty in my opinion.

I also note that trading down 22% year to date is a fairly serious situation and the comment regarding the cash burn I am sure wasn't missed by anyone on here.

Looking further ahead analysts are predicting dividends of 27 cps for FY22 which is (27 / 0.72) 37.5 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits and represents a gross yield of 9.1% on a share price of $4.10 or on a look through the pending dividend, assuming its paid, to theoretical ex divvy price of ($4.10 - 17.5 cps) = $3.925 the gross yield is 37.5 / 392.5 = 9.6% which is a compelling yield (assuming they can actually afford to pay it).

The thinking behind my move to a hold is that the widespread malaise being felt across the Auckland region at present will eventually spread to the rest of N.Z. as the whole country has to come to terms with living with Covid.

a reminder that when they gave that “down 22%” report, and when they announced the dividend - that the time the “down 22%” applies to included:
- 2 weeks when the entire country was in level 4 and WHS had zero revenue (down 100% y-o-y),
- an additional 3 weeks of Auckland being in level 4 (so no revenue from Auckland during that time)
- and a week of Auckland and rest of country in level 3.

Given most of the country has had retail open and operating as per usual in level 2 for a month now, and Auckland being in level 3 and soon to open retail in “level 3/phase 2” of “reopening” - I think the chances of the dividend being cancelled are slim.

[Waltzing]

Most will be able to collect there Div at under 3.50 which makes the yield for them fabulous.

[Beagle]

a reminder that when they gave that “down 22%” report, and when they announced the dividend - that the time the “down 22%” applies to included:
- 2 weeks when the entire country was in level 4 and WHS had zero revenue (down 100% y-o-y),
- an additional 3 weeks of Auckland being in level 4 (so no revenue from Auckland during that time)
- and a week of Auckland and rest of country in level 3.

Given most of the country has had retail open and operating as per usual in level 2 for a month now, and Auckland being in level 3 and soon to open retail in “level 3/phase 2” of “reopening” - I think the chances of the dividend being cancelled are slim.

"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October. The record date
for the dividend will be 18 November 2021 and will be paid on 3 December 2021"

Unfortunately investors have been left in a position where they:-
a) Have to make their own best guess of whether they think this assumption will come to pass or not
b) Interpret the word "predominantly" in the context of the wider Auckland's region's population being over 1.6m, approx one third of N.Z.'s population)
c) Make their own best guess of what happens if this assumption proves to be more hopeful than reality.

Anyone's guess what happens but as mentioned above they have previously declared a dividend in February 2020 and cancelled it in March 2021, (which is to the best of my recollection a first by any NZX listed company, certainly in my memory) AND they have mentioned the cash burn, (which at least to me read like a coded warning that if that continues and their assumption was materially wrong there was a risk of the dividend being cancelled / deferred).

Its anyone's guess whether large parts of N.Z. will be in level 2 or 3 by the end of this month.

[winner69]

a reminder that when they gave that “down 22%” report, and when they announced the dividend - that the time the “down 22%” applies to included:
- 2 weeks when the entire country was in level 4 and WHS had zero revenue (down 100% y-o-y),
- an additional 3 weeks of Auckland being in level 4 (so no revenue from Auckland during that time)
- and a week of Auckland and rest of country in level 3.

Given most of the country has had retail open and operating as per usual in level 2 for a month now, and Auckland being in level 3 and soon to open retail in “level 3/phase 2” of “reopening” - I think the chances of the dividend being cancelled are slim.

2 weeks at 0% and Auckland remaining in Level 3 the maths says -22% after 8 weeks is a phenomenal effort for the other 3.5 weeks

[Waltzing]

at the rate the virus is moving its 50-/50 the div will be paid, as there appear to be people who just dont get it...but does it matter if it postponed.

2 cases out side of hamilton zone. For some reason this time the country just did not lock down hard enough.

[Greekwatchdog]

Actually the "Root Cause" of this latest outbreak was at MIQ. The Govt and MoH did not have things tight enough so Case 1 caught it minding his own whist the carrier was to close. MIQ's should be at Military Bases not hotels. Govt's failure, NZ just pays the price. Learn to live with it as its here longer than we will be. Just like the WHS will be.

[peat]

its here longer than we will be. Just like the WHS will be.

Probably better suited to the HLG thread ;+)

[Waltzing]

Well with the DIV possible in doubt , will it get a bashing down below 3.50?

and MIQ was the failure but they did not want to spend a billion building a virus proof facility... A modern Dubrovnik.

[winner69]

This Mayor says lockdown whole of North Island

Whst a bozo but you never know the PM might agree

PM likely to call a snap press conference soon methinks

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-mayor-calls-for-north-island-lockdown-says-its-too-hard-to-contain-in-waikato/DLNJYCBBV4BJOKQHCBHMEZBKPI/

[Waltzing]

W(n) ->VOTELOCKDOWN = "YES";

WHS Div postponed, = share price bashing...

please get with the PROGRAM;

Never let a good crisis go to waste....or a Fake one..

[Beagle]

This Mayor says lockdown whole of North Island

Whst a bozo but you never know the PM might agree

PM likely to call a snap press conference soon methinks

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-mayor-calls-for-north-island-lockdown-says-its-too-hard-to-contain-in-waikato/DLNJYCBBV4BJOKQHCBHMEZBKPI/

With questions only allowed from Jessica and Tova. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQnFE246yU4
North Island total lockdown = N.Z. not predominantly in level 2. Hmmm...looks more and more like a 50/50 outcome on this divvy and last time the divvy was cancelled the subsequent special many, many months later was only half the normal size. Hmmm

[Panda-NZ-]

Vaccines will be the saviour, encourage your friends etc to get it and get a 17c divvie in return.

[850man]

Vaccines will be the saviour, encourage your friends etc to get it and get a 17c divvie in return.

My friends are all sensible and fully juiced up, then again I don't know anyone that wears a tinfoil hat

[Beagle]

Vaccines will be the saviour, encourage your friends etc to get it and get a 17c divvie in return.

Just got my second one this afternoon...feeling slightly second hand but not quite this bad lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Tap9Cf_7Y

[Waltzing]

"only half the normal size. "

well MR B may be right and then you might be able to buy some more at a much lower SP if your underweight.

The Bozo may have it right if there are large numbers of a demographic that has forgotten there is a virus.

The Waipa Mayor sits in a region that has almost got its owns conduct laws.

You have to understand how they think in the half gallon Quarter Acre Pavlova Paradise.

If your wheelie bin is not align correctly the street will notice and they "Know where you live". Even if in normal times your not actually there they THINK YOUR THERE.

Down on the farm and therefore as long as the milk tanker is turning into gates, the wheels of the economy is turning. Your town and city wheels can go home and stay there cause your not really working, just consuming.:cool:

[winner69]

Jeez, ANZ floating mortgage rate up to 4.44% and going higher in November ….petrol at local pump $2.47 (or $2.64 for stuff that goes in line trimmer)

That’ll take a decent chunk out of discretionary budgets or in investor terms put in dent in household balance sheets

Retail could be getting tough

[Panda-NZ-]

Real terms its 1.14%.

Hopefully people are getting enough wage and salary increases.
Stocks have done very well.

[Waltzing]

"petrol at local pump $2.47 "

yes but in the biggest city they arnt driving out of town and soon Bozo will be ringing up wellieton.

retail budget will have another 8 weeks to build up cash and then they will need summer kit. Buckets and spades, EV bikes , sun glasses, sunblock and swim gear (HLG).

With interest rates on the rise its the Balanced portfolios that will Win.

[LoungeLizzard]

Jeez, ANZ floating mortgage rate up to 4.44% and going higher in November ….petrol at local pump $2.47 (or $2.64 for stuff that goes in line trimmer)

That’ll take a decent chunk out of discretionary budgets or in investor terms put in dent in household balance sheets

Retail could be getting tough

It's pretty obvious that the bull run in equities globally is coming to an end. Retail is not where you want to be parking your money.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October. The record date
for the dividend will be 18 November 2021 and will be paid on 3 December 2021"

Unfortunately investors have been left in a position where they:-
a) Have to make their own best guess of whether they think this assumption will come to pass or not
b) Interpret the word "predominantly" in the context of the wider Auckland's region's population being over 1.6m, approx one third of N.Z.'s population)
c) Make their own best guess of what happens if this assumption proves to be more hopeful than reality.

Anyone's guess what happens but as mentioned above they have previously declared a dividend in February 2020 and cancelled it in March 2021, (which is to the best of my recollection a first by any NZX listed company, certainly in my memory) AND they have mentioned the cash burn, (which at least to me read like a coded warning that if that continues and their assumption was materially wrong there was a risk of the dividend being cancelled / deferred).

Its anyone's guess whether large parts of N.Z. will be in level 2 or 3 by the end of this month.

the cancelled dividend in March 2020 was during peak fear when economists everywhere (including NZ) were predicting absolute doom with double digit unemployment, a large housing market crash and prolonged economic recession. None of those factors are remotely in play anymore.

I do however agree with you that the wording from WHS is open to interpretation.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This Mayor says lockdown whole of North Island

Whst a bozo but you never know the PM might agree

PM likely to call a snap press conference soon methinks

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-mayor-calls-for-north-island-lockdown-says-its-too-hard-to-contain-in-waikato/DLNJYCBBV4BJOKQHCBHMEZBKPI/

doubtful - they didn’t even add the two towns yesterday to the “soft” level 3 restrictions, just said they would “monitor the situation”. No one would have cared or been surprised if they had extended lockdown boundary to those two locations, which adds to the evidence that level 3 lockdowns are increasingly unlikely in future. I wouldn’t be surprised at some more level 3 additions in the short term though, but maybe be more of the level 3/step 1 or 2 variety like Auckland is going through.

Personally I’m ok with that - if the morons refusing to get vaccinated haven’t done so by end of October I have no sympathy for them if they end up dead (I think most kiwis feel the same way to be honest)

as soon as CV got into the criminal fraternity (gangs) all hope of elimination was lost as they just ignored lockdown restrictions to keep their core services going (drug distribution and prostitution). Zero surprise they were also the reason Covid escaped Auckland boundary.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It's pretty obvious that the bull run in equities globally is coming to an end. Retail is not where you want to be parking your money.

right because the massive slowdown in money spent on holiday & hospitality spending is going to just be piling up in everyone’s savings accounts because people are going to reverse a century of consumerism habits with all that extra cash available and aren’t going to be buying huge amounts of things for themselves, their houses and their kids (you know, all the things they have been doing already over the last 18 months).

FYI - S&P 500 is just a few percent off it’s all time high, I think it’s a bit premature to be saying it’s “pretty obvious that the bull run in global equities is coming to an end”.

[winner69]

the cancelled dividend in March 2020 was during peak fear when economists everywhere (including NZ) were predicting absolute doom with double digit unemployment, a large housing market crash and prolonged economic recession. None of those factors are remotely in play anymore.

I do however agree with you that the wording from WHS is open to interpretation.

Open to interpretation - to the extent of how much more 'The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date' and as a consequence whether they can handle a $61m cash outflow for the dividend ....or how much desire to use the funding facilities available.

Wonder how the planned $135m capital send is progressing

[winner69]

[Red Shed at Lyall Bay had a few in it this morning including a few noisy kids ....Noel Leeming hadn't seen any customers before me so the staff were tidying up the shelfs

Maybe most punters out getting the vax

[Beagle]

Open to interpretation - to the extent of how much more 'The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date' and as a consequence whether they can handle a $61m cash outflow for the dividend ....or how much desire to use the funding facilities available.

Wonder how the planned $135m capital send is progressing

Yeah their high future capex didn't go unnoticed by me.
Got my second shot yesterday...big queue's

[LaserEyeKiwi]

[Red Shed at Lyall Bay had a few in it this morning including a few noisy kids ....Noel Leeming hadn't seen any customers before me so the staff were tidying up the shelfs

Maybe most punters out getting the vax

Currently doing my research over last couple of weeks before getting a new TV (getting to know all the model/technology differences and pricing etc), before pulling the trigger probably during the black Friday sales. Have noticed Noel Leeming seem to almost have a Briscoes style pricing system at present (at least on the TVs) - high “standard” pricing, but deep discounts for sale days/weeks. They just finished up a big sale a few days ago, 2 stores I went too during last weekend were absolutely packed (Lower Hutt & Tory st), but when I visited a week ago and again yesterday (granted those were traditionally slow for retail Wednesdays) the stores were almost empty.