WHS - Warehouse Group

[LoungeLizzard]

right because the massive slowdown in money spent on holiday & hospitality spending is going to just be piling up in everyone’s savings accounts because people are going to reverse a century of consumerism habits with all that extra cash available and aren’t going to be buying huge amounts of things for themselves, their houses and their kids (you know, all the things they have been doing already over the last 18 months).

FYI - S&P 500 is just a few percent off it’s all time high, I think it’s a bit premature to be saying it’s “pretty obvious that the bull run in global equities is coming to an end”.

I admire your optimism. If you look at the macro situation both here and abroad the list of pressures on the wider economy is pretty long. Equities are overvalued and a correction is well overdue. WHS is not immune - and due to it's cyclical nature will be hit harder than more defensive stocks. Good luck holding is all I can say.

[Waltzing]

Sure many investors will be waiting to buy more.

Blood in streets...

Lay it down under fire.

Sky's falling. China contagion, war, pestilence and plague.

oh lets not forget the local problem.

Buy if it goes under 3.50, lots.

Same goes for MHJ, if under .80.

Dont forget HLG if under 6.

:t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I admire your optimism. If you look at the macro situation both here and abroad the list of pressures on the wider economy is pretty long. Equities are overvalued and a correction is well overdue. WHS is not immune - and due to it's cyclical nature will be hit harder than more defensive stocks. Good luck holding is all I can say.

I don’t discount a fall in stock prices, but what is my main motivator for my WHS holdings is not the share price but actual fundamentals.

Even if share prices head south, as long as the underlying company is still generating high net income and that translates to continued high dividends then I couldn’t care less what the market sentiment is towards the stock price.

So in my mind the underlying rationale for sustained consumer spending in the year ahead (diverted discretionary spending from travel & hospitality, in a low unemployment environment) remains intact, and so will underlying retail strength, and that will continue to flow through to strong dividends. WHS happens to also be in the midst of enjoying all its internal efficiently gains from recent restructure and logistics/infrastructure transition program, which is why it is my preferred retail holding.

[Waltzing]

Yep .. only US default can derail it or extreme events.

[winner69]

Red Sheds sales have only grown at 2% pa over the last years when core retail sales have grown at more than 5% pa

Basically a continuation of many many years of Red Sheds losing market share

Says to me the Red Sheds don't have the offer what many NZers want or are not keeping with changing trends ....bad retailing basics

Important as Red Sheds about half of Group sales

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Red Sheds sales have only grown at 2% pa over the last years when core retail sales have grown at more than 5% pa

Basically a continuation of many many years of Red Sheds losing market share

Says to me the Red Sheds don't have the offer what many NZers want or are not keeping with changing trends ....bad retailing basics

Important as Red Sheds about half of Group sales

Two important things to note with the red sheds though:

1: their profitability has significantly increased
2: their sales per square foot has also significantly increased as they have significantly shrunk the total square footage (The warehouse stationary stores-within-a-stores revenue is not counted in red shed revenue, so all those red sheds with a SWAS have had a big reduction in square footage while also still managing to grow their revenue, and sharply reducing their expenses). Plus they are also closing stores, further reducing their sales footprint.

I’ll take middling sales growth from a reduced sales footprint and cost base (leading to massive profit growth) any day of the week.

13050

[Waltzing]

WHS VS BRIS EBIT space comparison would be interesting.

[winner69]

A very impressive result for Red Sheds last year

and sales per sqm did increase to $3.659 from $3,410 pcp - a 7% increase .... impressive

But in a years time that table won't look that impressive - i'd say modest if any sales growth and reduced margins leading to a 20% plus reduction in Operating Profit

You heard it here first

Hope Noel Leeming pull the Group through in F22

[Waltzing]

If WHS did not benefit from the boom in retail then what would bring about a 20 percent reduction in NP.

Margins? cost of goods sold?

or Freight?

Im think that huge tome... Principals of Cost Accounting. nth Edition.

[bull....]

technicals very bullish , recent rally was from 3.45 to 3.90.
yesterday it bounced from the 38.2% retracement area at 3.74 odd likely people mopping up any surplus stock before next weeeks announcement.
mthly bollingers next mth open up 4.30 as a possibilty once 4 is removed.

ill imagine on div announcement it will attract plenty new buying once the div yield is cemented.
next 6 mths is my pick for nzx 50 inclusion.

reached pretty close to our mthly target of 4.30 , working of the move now from overbrought levels around 4.25. lets see how it pans out as some new fundamantal issues have arisen in the last week which could have implications around valuations for all retailers

[winner69]

If WHS did not benefit from the boom in retail then what would bring about a 20 percent reduction in NP.

Margins? cost of goods sold?

or Freight?

Im think that huge tome... Principals of Cost Accounting. nth Edition.

waltzing man -- consistent with analyst forecasts of F22 profit being down 28% on F21

But why worry as consensus target is now $4.45 .... that's good

[cymonger]

Years back there was an interesting financial book called "The Millionaire Next Door." The gist of the book was, the guy with the fancy car, wife with the expensive jewelry, and country club membership was probably not the rich guy, although he sure wants everyone to think that. The REAL rich guy is more likely to be driving a ten year old car, living in a nice but modest home, and not showing off his wealth at all.

So why am I bringing this up?

I've seen some comments on here about who does and doesn't shop at the Warehouse and I think it relates. Often being a good saver, being frugal, and shopping around for value is EXACTLY how a person gets rich. I buy a lot of long sleeve Merino shirts. They are 35 dollars at the Warehouse. They are $100 at Katmandu, I'm really okay with wearing the Warehouse version as opposed to the "label" version that no one else will ever see anyway. I think this applies to a number of things a person would purchase. Sure there is sometimes (but not always) a difference in quality at the high and low ends of the retail spectrum, but I suspect it is often also about ego and vanity.

I know for me, I would normally spend maybe 20k a year traveling overseas. That money will not be spent on travel this year (nor was it spent on travel last year). Turning towards retail spending on hobbies, renovation, etc. is kind of all I've got right now.

And let's be honest, we're not going anywhere for a while. This country's "travel" response to Covid is a disaster. I hate when people try and spin this. The way MIQ has been handled? It's a disaster. Terrible for those of us with wanderlust. Good for the Warehouse.

So larger market forces aside, people really have no choice but to spend their money here at home. Even options like Amazon and eBay take forever with current shipping delays. These are the cards we've been handed right now.

I once heard it said that if you gave everyone in the world a million dollars, the same people would be rich and the same people would be poor in a few years. I can't say I disagree. People at ALL ends of the spectrum will continue to pump their money into the Red Sheds for at least another year. Probably more like two.

Happy to hold and wait out the people who have predicted 25 of the last two corrections.

[Waltzing]

"analyst forecasts of F22 profit being down 28%"

yes but on what workings?

bit like forecasts from economists stated from posters.

did the get the retail spend right last April 2020?

Its all probability and employment is high, interest rates yes but full employment. Do they see stag fire alarm?

If your right then Aus and Euro tourism was the better bet and still is.

[Rawz]

Didnt analysts get the WHS result wrong?
They were 10% under on the MHJ result.
Not sure on BRG or HLG?

Overall analysts could be too bearish on retail. Like Cymonger says above. Lots of spending still to fall into the retail bucket.

[Waltzing]

The more time the home owner sits around not driving anywhere the more detail they absorb. Everything from gardening shows to baking...

They notice and think maybe move it here, there or something new over there. Any stats on gardening stores.

Did you place an order with that young builder across the way after lock down when you saw how well his own renovation went. He had to stay at home in level 4 and went to work on his own list.

The person who never even had a list might have one now. Oh that's people who usually travel!

Well level 3 for everyone until tuesday in the waka too.

Central North island Town traffic busy in the Waka too. No panic to see there.

[Waltzing]

Anyone waking up to CNBC this morning. And level 3 means no travel today.

Big expo on freight all the way from china to trucking goods across the retail US chain.

Added freight surcharge added to the invoice.

Retailers here may face these added costs and a portion of W(n) reduction in NPAT could come from this as well as more interest rate rises.

Brain Fellow this morning questioning the timing of the rate increases.

[Beagle]

Yeap watched the segment on Macy's on a PE of less than 8 with its well developed online systems. WHS on a PE of 11 is not cheap by comparison.

[Waltzing]

Bris interim report out lets see what the shoppers been up to.

[alokdhir]

People are catching up with the trend ....Now 3.80 doesn't look that far away ....

[Waltzing]

"Now 3.80"

surely most under that as a buy of over 3.70 was getting a head of the next 12 months.

[winner69]

Share price not going under 4 bucks is it?

Need a late run on Friday afternoon

[Panda-NZ-]

36k orders at $4 to break through first.

[Waltzing]

Which will double in price first OCA or WHS.

Not same sector but as mention OCA 3 dollars in 10 years.

[alokdhir]

Which will double in price first OCA or WHS.

Not same sector but as mention OCA 3 dollars in 10 years.

Surely not WHS ....IMHO

[Panda-NZ-]

"Now 3.80"

surely most under that as a buy of over 3.70 was getting a head of the next 12 months.



Lean efficient enterprise vs the anchor of care expenses which will only increase as life expectancy improves marginally, but with more illness.

I suppose it will depend on the housing market.

[Waltzing]

Say your AVE price is 3 dollars 3.50.

No stagflation and WHS continues to pay DIV above 4.5% Net.

OCA takes 10 years.

Bets on WHS getting there in half that time frame.

[Beagle]

Which will double in price first OCA or WHS.

Not same sector but as mention OCA 3 dollars in 10 years.

In my opinion OCA. The business model of the retirement sector is all about encapsulating capital growth and its very well proven. RYM worth more than 55 times what it listed for in the late 1990's, SUM worth more than 11 times its listing price late 2011.

Sadly for WHS not only is the Waikato in level 3 lockdown, now also Northland. Rule busters revolt. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-more-mass-protest-rallies-for-auckland-hamilton-elsewhere-planned/XHX6O7KA33MTB65DVAXTKHUPTU/

Only a matter of time before the whole country is in level 3 in my opinion. Unfortunately the sad reality is the forthcoming dividend is looking less and less likely with each passing day as WHS burns through more cash.

The directors reassuring us that their credit lines were intact despite the cash burn. Surely everyone realises and I don't need to say it but in case its not perfectly obvious already, this is "code" speak for the cash burn rate is serious.

The board kowtowing to political pressure regarding Covid subsidies even before its applied and making assumptions about the length of the lockdown and the strength of the bounce-back, (I'm certain they're going to be wrong on both counts) is too much politically correct ESG garbage for this dog to stomach so I'm out.

[Hoop]

Share price not going under 4 bucks is it?
.....

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes

No...whew!!

13062

[Waltzing]

AUS is reaching its Vac targets faster than anticipated. If Auckland can get to 90 percent then the doom and gloom anticipated for the markets might be averted.

Motor way pretty empty south of Cambridge. There's the sound of sirens and loud motorbikes.

I agree with MR B that with northland out of action there are possible repercussions. One expert now says he was expecting level 4 for northland.

There are no locations of interest south of Hamilton yet.

The November dividend might well be paid as a special in febuary 2022.

The board probably wont make that decision this coming week. They will wait until they see if Hamilton, BOP are in level 2 and Northland case numbers are not increasing.

Warning: Not processed for preposition and participle policing standards.

Note: All flags are set to off.

[Habits]

BoD, stop with the guessing game, be decisive and make provision for dividend. We shareholders have mortgages to pay and living expenses but unlike employees and yourselves do not get wage subsidy or income insurance to cover lost any dividend income.

[winner69]

Chair Joan featured in BusinessDesk My Net Worth this week

Hard life when young blah blah blah …and bad memories of being. Feltex Director

Important to look the part …never scrimp on clothes she says

Always been impressed how resplendent Joan looks

Betcha she don’t buy from Warehouse …(and not even Glassons)

[Waltzing]

The BOP spread is a false alarm with the auckland individual now testing negative.

You got all the medical people saying dont go any farther with opening up Auckland.

If there was a sports betting option on Level alerts you could take a punt winner(n).

WHS will go on paying dividends in the coming years ahead.

In the long term OCA should outperform based on RYM's and SUM's past performance.

But they will not pay as high a dividend as the retailers.

Oca should remain impervious to cyclical swings in the economy, if house prices remain stable.

[Aanvil]

WHS into NZX50 when ZEL drops out?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

​Ardern This morning:

”Ardern said while the Government wanted to reach a 90 per cent-plus vaccination target before it lifted restrictions, it didn't mean they couldn't make small moves to ease restrictions, such as allowing retail stores to open before then.”

[winner69]

​Ardern This morning:

”Ardern said while the Government wanted to reach a 90 per cent-plus vaccination target before it lifted restrictions, it didn't mean they couldn't make small moves to ease restrictions, such as allowing retail stores to open before then.”

We could see WHS share price $5 in a month or so

All that efficiency gains, footprint optimisation etc etc going to pay dividends ..... so $5 share price and another 20 cent divie by then ...sounds good

[Waltzing]

There is confusing over the step system versus a lighting system versus a level system.

Its starting to look like musical chairs.

In the mean time panic selling could see MR B take a position in feb if the price drops to 3 dollars.

At least its a sunny day in the BOP and surfs up!

[bull....]

auckland could easily be in lockdown till next year some time level 3 or 4. so maybe div,s next yr might be affected more than this one

[Beagle]

There is confusing over the step system versus a lighting system versus a level system.

Its starting to look like musical chairs.

In the mean time panic selling could see MR B take a position in feb if the price drops to 3 dollars.

At least its a sunny day in the BOP and surfs up!

Happy to have a rest and see what happens in 2022. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=%2fu4PLAkv&id=67E829BDE29AEF53301A34C9EC77F96AA7780B78&thid=OIP._u4PLAkvhxuIH_oA7C9ZnQHaE8&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fmybeaglebuddy.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f01%2fBracken-and-Baylee-in-crate-for-first-time.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.fee e0f2c092f871b881ffa00ec2f599d%3frik%3deAt4p2r5d%25 2bzJNA%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=560&expw=840&q=beagle+asleep+in+kennel&simid=608054471764083443&FORM=IRPRST&ck=2FE52F0EB5D5EC336485B1377855AB38&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[percy]

Happy to have a rest and see what happens in 2022. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=%2fu4PLAkv&id=67E829BDE29AEF53301A34C9EC77F96AA7780B78&thid=OIP._u4PLAkvhxuIH_oA7C9ZnQHaE8&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fmybeaglebuddy.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f01%2fBracken-and-Baylee-in-crate-for-first-time.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.fee e0f2c092f871b881ffa00ec2f599d%3frik%3deAt4p2r5d%25 2bzJNA%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=560&expw=840&q=beagle+asleep+in+kennel&simid=608054471764083443&FORM=IRPRST&ck=2FE52F0EB5D5EC336485B1377855AB38&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

Well traded.

[Old mate]

I agree with winner. Europe almost back to normal. Oz opening up. Auckland s vacs rates getting up there 85% one dose and 60% two. In another month we should be getting close to be able to rip back into it.(cautiously) :)

[Rawz]

Happy to have a rest and see what happens in 2022. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=%2fu4PLAkv&id=67E829BDE29AEF53301A34C9EC77F96AA7780B78&thid=OIP._u4PLAkvhxuIH_oA7C9ZnQHaE8&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fmybeaglebuddy.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f01%2fBracken-and-Baylee-in-crate-for-first-time.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.fee e0f2c092f871b881ffa00ec2f599d%3frik%3deAt4p2r5d%25 2bzJNA%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=560&expw=840&q=beagle+asleep+in+kennel&simid=608054471764083443&FORM=IRPRST&ck=2FE52F0EB5D5EC336485B1377855AB38&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

Hey Beagle- curious to know if you are putting the WHS money into your existing portfolio or holding cash? Or have a new target?

[Waltzing]

"so maybe div,s next yr might be affected more than this one"

they can cut the DIV a long way and it's still Net 5.

Anyone selling over 4.20 and with a base of 3.50 will have made a killing.

Vaccination rates are climbing in Aus far faster than predicted. The chart models for vaccination rates was under estimated by a long way. It appears that the level of education is high enough in the population base that over 90 could well be reached before xmas.

If WHS holds it nerve and pays then you might well be able to take the DIV and SELL for a profit as the share prices bounces in the new year. You get imputation credits as well.

Remember the government will have to open the tap values this week to calm the nerves of retailers and hospitality. Expect Grant to address those fear some time this week.

Your alpha waves are being swamped by gamma at this point in the crisis.

Anyone who shoots at the Olympic level and has trained in Europe or the US will know how this works.

Its also why a certain NZ competitor has take so long to win a Gold. Not a gyroscope in the head. If you do the geometric analytics you will see how off balance she is when she applies power. If Biles took off on her vault with this variation she would land off the matts.

Soros knew what he was doing long before the science was in on the subject.

[bull....]

yep sold in the mid 4.20s as i said 4.30 was the high for this mth , will be looking to re-enter soon once more clarity around covid and lock-downs

[LaserEyeKiwi]

We could see WHS share price $5 in a month or so

All that efficiency gains, footprint optimisation etc etc going to pay dividends ..... so $5 share price and another 20 cent divie by then ...sounds good

well yes a lower price would be good for reinvesting the dividend in WHS, which I’ll probably do. In fact if it could drop to a share price of 0.01c on the day I receive the dividend cash that would be great thanks. It would be welcome to remain at the share price of 0.01 in perpetuity as long as it keeps paying me dividends.

[Waltzing]

"We could see WHS share price $5 in a month or so"

oh dear ....

anyone seen that photo of flipped car on southern motor way will now know there is no escape from leaky border at speed.

NSW freedom day for fully vaccinated.

Panic selling gives you the best opportunities.

[alokdhir]

yep sold in the mid 4.20s as i said 4.30 was the high for this mth , will be looking to re-enter soon once more clarity around covid and lock-downs

Most oversold at present is FPH ...where r looking to enter that ? WHS 380ish reentry ...370-386 band

[Rawz]

Chairwoman and CEO happy to buy at $4.10. Gee if it goes $3.70 that would be a gift

[alokdhir]

Chairwoman and CEO happy to buy at $4.10. Gee if it goes $3.70 that would be a gift

Most likely buddy ...today dam has broken so straight to previous breakout point 386

[bull....]

Most oversold at present is FPH ...where r looking to enter that ? WHS 380ish reentry ...370-386 band

as i say im waiting for clarity on how covid and lockdowns playout in NZ now as regard to retail stocks as an investment

[alokdhir]

as i say im waiting for clarity on how covid and lockdowns playout in NZ now as regard to retail stocks as an investment

Fair enough ....FPH part maybe u will answer at FPH thread ...lol

[bull....]

Fair enough ....FPH part maybe u will answer at FPH thread ...lol

fph still just in that big sideways channel 27 - 37, think i said on the fph thread good for trading the range till it breaks. buying in the middle of these ranges on any stock just means you get whipped back and forth as it gyrates in the range

[alokdhir]

fph still just in that big sideways channel 27 - 37, think i said on the fph thread good for trading the range till it breaks. buying in the middle of these ranges on any stock just means you get whipped back and forth as it gyrates in the range

Thanks for your trading knowledge ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

as i say im waiting for clarity on how covid and lockdowns playout in NZ now as regard to retail stocks as an investment

Super Saturday vax day coming. PM talking about containing now. Looking good for opening up and living with it.

Will be a lot of retail therapy once the shops are open. Big christmas as well. Still no overseas holidays.

Increasing mortgage rates wont hurt too much until refixing in the 3s happen.

[Waltzing]

Little with Hosking making it clear that business is a major consideration along with trying to protect the economy and mental health.

[Beagle]

Hey Beagle- curious to know if you are putting the WHS money into your existing portfolio or holding cash? Or have a new target?

Cash is king right at the minute in my opinion. Nibbled on a few OCA late last week and am now quite content to enjoy a nice rest in my kennel :)

Just need to let some water flow under the bridge and see how much damage this storm inflicts. My nose for a feed is not registering anything worth hunting right at the minute. Sometimes its best just to have a good long nap.

[see weed]

Cash is king right at the minute in my opinion. Nibbled on a few OCA late last week and am now quite content to enjoy a nice rest in my kennel :)

Just need to let some water flow under the bridge and see how much damage this storm inflicts. My nose for a feed is not registering anything worth hunting right at the minute. Sometimes its best just to have a good long nap.
I accidently bought 6000 WHS this morning for $3.90. I put the order in last week to help support the sp, but was so involved watching the ZEL action, that I forgot to lower my WHS buy order to $3.80.:eek2:

[winner69]

Three Chiefs or high ranking leaders leaving recently after a couple of leaders left earlier in the year must put at risk the sustainability of the efficiency / margin improvements

Maintaining project momentum is always the difficult part …many fail to do so …..and consistency of performance is not in WHS DNA

[Waltzing]

Depends how much DNA is transferred into the software platforms. HLG is over time increasing that strength and WHS should have started that some time ago as well. Although bringing together those platform can be difficult if they all operate on different solutions.

They might simple have been people who arnt suited to the new directions that technology is taking. A young generation of Tech Savy managers are what's required to drive that in the future.

Tech roles can be very demanding and 10 years in any company is a long time these days.

[Beagle]

I accidently bought 6000 WHS this morning for $3.90. I put the order in last week to help support the sp, but was so involved watching the ZEL action, that I forgot to lower my WHS buy order to $3.80.:eek2:

I'm no good at multi tasking either lol

[alokdhir]

I accidently bought 6000 WHS this morning for $3.90. I put the order in last week to help support the sp, but was so involved watching the ZEL action, that I forgot to lower my WHS buy order to $3.80.:eek2:

I thought we discussed 3.80 reentry point already ...but u were too eager ...lol

[Waltzing]

shops need to open and is peters right? Is it name and shame time because the cost is high.

WHS if it can open across the country within 2 weeks will be able to pay up.

[Waltzing]

All waka too retail opening this coming weekend...

DIV looks to be on!

a Partial win call by winner() , one more week auckland level 3.

Then open level 2.5 ?

[winner69]

AKL shops closed another week ……won’t make too much difference

[Waltzing]

Will put winners prediction into the solutions events folder.

Portfolio.NZX.Stockid.CurrentPrice(500) . OrderAction="SELL"

[see weed]

I thought we discussed 3.80 reentry point already ...but u were too eager ...lol
Not to worry, can always buy more when it gets down there:)

[winner69]

BNZ guy says.

“The prospect of ‘endemic’ covid-19 in New Zealand may mean a less vigorous post-lockdown rebound in spending than that seen after the original lockdown last year”.

Retail in NZ going to it tough next twelve months compared to last year

[LaserEyeKiwi]

BNZ guy says.

“The prospect of ‘endemic’ covid-19 in New Zealand may mean a less vigorous post-lockdown rebound in spending than that seen after the original lockdown last year”.

Retail in NZ going to it tough next twelve months compared to last year


I always find these prognosticators hilarious - as if kiwis are simply going to not spend their rapidly swelling discretionary income balances.

“Honey, we can’t buy that new big screen tv and that new smartphone and couch you wanted because there are some Covid infections around.” Said no one ever.

Also almost every developed country where Covid is endemic is seeing similar retail figures year on year

[Waltzing]

Lets wait and see if the public are going to stay at home over the next 6 months.

If your really worried take a N95, NK95 mask and put a surgical one over the top.

Take your liquid spray soap with you..

Lets see if the sirens start up at the weekend as they race about in their 4 wheel drives utes.

The longer the lock downs the the more the human brains wants to compensate.

Id say dont get in the way!

The pent up demand for travel is going to be huge the longer some people are locked up.

[dreamcatcher]

Covid solution with some tough love 'kick the non-vaccinated out of ICU' making room for more urgent cases that are not self inflicted. As an ex-employer I would not be interested in hiring let alone paying sick leave for non-vaccinated Covid related people. Losing key staff during heavy indent schedules means cancelled orders and been labeled an unreliable supplier for non delivery leaving some serious consequences for businesses.

Message is clear tolerance for these clowns is wearing thin.

[couta1]

All waka too retail opening this coming weekend...

DIV looks to be on!

a Partial win call by winner() , one more week auckland level 3.

Then open level 2.5 ? No Level 3 stage 2, then Level 3 stage 3 then back to L2 or will that be L2 stage 1.:confused:

[Waltzing]

Stand corrected. Read in the herald where Dr Blowfeld or doctors hinted the step system was confusing and some other system was now preferred.

Need a printed guide to carry about or a digital assistant to check that one is in compliance.

Anyway one thing might be certain and that is if the weather is fine this weekend a lot of people in L2 will be out and about consuming.

And thats the main thing?

[Waltzing]

Oh no the price is going up.. what happened to 3.50 on fears of inflation, high petrol prices, high housing costs, higher clothing ect, ect..

someone pore more cold water in the faces of the retail investor...

stop stop please..start the day over come on this is a joke.

There is a crisis out there people, crisis.:confused:

[dreamcatcher]

Oh no the price is going up.. what happened to 3.50 on fears of inflation, high petrol prices, high housing costs, higher clothing ect, ect..

someone pore more cold water in the faces of the retail investor...

stop stop please..start the day over come on this is a joke.

There is a crisis out there people, crisis.:confused:

SP moved by low volume daily players.......

[Waltzing]

looks like pretty normal vols for WHS .

oil shock coming though.

if not happy with this investment use hatch and buy the US home builders.

[winner69]

I always find these prognosticators hilarious - as if kiwis are simply going to not spend their rapidly swelling discretionary income balances.

“Honey, we can’t buy that new big screen tv and that new smartphone and couch you wanted because there are some Covid infections around.” Said no one ever.

Also almost every developed country where Covid is endemic is seeing similar retail figures year on year


Similar year on year doesn’t sound like growth ..just hanging in there

[peat]

Similar year on year doesn’t sound like growth ..just hanging in there

you're being obtuse. you know thats not what they mean!

[Waltzing]

Low vol

4.06! ... honestly must be shaz in wellington.. could be Shaz in Auckland. Or is it retail Aus..

shaz traders whip sawing the stock price...:ohmy:

[Rawz]

Low vol

4.06! ... honestly must be shaz in wellington.. could be Shaz in Auckland. Or is it retail Aus..

shaz traders whip sawing the stock price...:ohmy:

CEO and chairwoman maybe gone back for more. So cheap.

A few ST legends out but W69 says $5 so ​no worries

[Waltzing]

w(n);

Var("WHSQty")

WHSQty = Winner.Portfolios.NZX.StockId("WHS").QtyOnhand();

Displayvar("WHSQty") ;

0.00

[Waltzing]

" ST legends"

calls made on spread of virus which can happen any time. Prudent calls to protect capital.

If limited spread xmas rally.

[Waltzing]

Any bets on 4.30 or over by ex DIV date.

[winner69]

Retail Card Spend Sept ……Westpac comment

Retail spending remained weak in September despite the move down to Alert Level 2 in most parts of the country.

Spending only increased by 0.9% in September. That followed a roughly 20% drop last month when Alert Level restrictions were reimposed nationwide.

We had expected a recovery in spending due to the easing in the Alert Level outside of Auckland. However, it appears that activity restrictions are still having a significant dampening impact on spending.



That’s the past …the future is a lot brighter

[Beagle]

Retail Card Spend Sept ……Westpac comment

Retail spending remained weak in September despite the move down to Alert Level 2 in most parts of the country.

Spending only increased by 0.9% in September. That followed a roughly 20% drop last month when Alert Level restrictions were reimposed nationwide.

We had expected a recovery in spending due to the easing in the Alert Level outside of Auckland. However, it appears that activity restrictions are still having a significant dampening impact on spending.



That’s the past …the future is a lot brighter

Is it really ? I suspect you would feel differently if you had lived through the seemingly endless covid prison sentence we've had in Auckland.
I reckon those facts speak for themselves and when Auckland is eventually allowed out of level 3 restrictions you'll get the same result as what's being experienced in the rest of the country now.

Interest rates headed up so less money for discretionary spending, fuel prices at record ever level's, supply chain issues forcing prices up and little discounting....there's not a lot to be cheerful about and especially in the context of the very strong share price gains already experienced. Strong recovery already baked in ?, you folks be the judge...but what if it doesn't happen ?

[Waltzing]

Well there you have it folks!

No spread south reported today on the Cindy and Dr Blowfeld show!

It could take a move to level 1.5 in auckland in december for the consumer to make a late rush for the goodies.

The Beagle has got his fill for xmas already and is resting up for the next hunt.

But the dividend is still out there and its a whooper if your buy price is right.

Updated:

creeping momentum on the buy side after the Blowfled and Cindy show.

With higher interest rates coming next year where are you going to shop for a Bargain?

[Waltzing]

4.08!!!!!!

[winner69]

4.08!!!!!!


Heading to 5 bucks by Christmas

[Rawz]

Higher interest rates are being offset by big pay rises in a very tight labour market.

Maybe some WHS shoppers don't have mortgages to worry about?

WHS having a good day today. Market looking forwards. To the grand re-opening and strong WHS fundamentals of growing margins, store rationalization etc

[Waltzing]

Ok WinnerGrinner.

perhaps its QtyOnHand > 0;

Net Div on OCA again?:cool:

[cymonger]

"Sharetrader legends"- (Sell out at 4, forgoing a massive dividend)

Share price- (Recover in 24 hours)

[Beagle]

"Sharetrader legends"- (Sell out at 4, forgoing a massive dividend)

Share price- (Recover in 24 hours)

Its early days...don't count your chickens until they come home to roost, BTW My average sale price was $4.11.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126639065/inflation-rising-prices-for-petrol-clothing-housing-will-dent-kiwis-wallets?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+12+ October+2021

[Waltzing]

WHS should not be greedy next year and give its loyal customers a Bargain.

Mr B knows that higher interest rates mean banks are going to love it.

But local banks are going to be required to carry bigger reserves while Aussi banks will be buy back babies.

Aus tourist stocks will start to recover strongly in 2022,2023 - 2025.

[Rawz]

"Sharetrader legends"- (Sell out at 4, forgoing a massive dividend)

Share price- (Recover in 24 hours)

LOL :lol::lol::lol:

There was a bit of 'patting on the back' going on wasn't there. A good trade was mentioned. $3.70 or $3.80 talked about.

But.. like Beagle says- can't count the chickens just yet.

[Habits]

Well there you have it folks!

No spread south reported today on the Cindy and Dr Blowfeld show!

It could take a move to level 1.5 in auckland in december for the consumer to make a late rush for the goodies.

The Beagle has got his fill for xmas already and is resting up for the next hunt.

But the dividend is still out there and its a whooper if your buy price is right.

Updated:

creeping momentum on the buy side after the Blowfled and Cindy show.

With higher interest rates coming next year where are you going to shop for a Bargain?

Heck I am glad you did not say Blowflies and Cindy show ... after all blowflies do zoom over to the bs

[winner69]

Its early days...don't count your chickens until they come home to roost, BTW My average sale price was $4.11.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126639065/inflation-rising-prices-for-petrol-clothing-housing-will-dent-kiwis-wallets?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+12+ October+2021

There's a rule of thumb in retail that once petrol goes over 235 retail sales tend to slow down.

Aucklanders don't care just now as they not buying much petrol but once things get back to endemic covid normality it'll start to hurt

Retail spend on fuel in normal times has been about $9 billion / $10 billion annually -- so has fuel 15% higher than usual thats more than $1billion less for households to spend

[Waltzing]

"Dr Blowfeld "

just kidding... no relation to Blofeld.

as for denting wallets thats why they will shop for Bargain at WHS.

it not Harrods!!!!

If they cant afford WHS then lets open some ops shops! because they wont be able to afford HLG either.

[Beagle]

There's a rule of thumb in retail that once petrol goes over 235 retail sales tend to slow down.

Aucklanders don't care just now as they not buying much petrol but once things get back to endemic covid normality it'll start to hurt

Retail spend on fuel in normal times has been about $9 billion / $10 billion annually -- so has fuel 15% higher than usual thats more than $1billion less for households to spend

Was surprised to read this in that article "According to PriceWatch, the average price for petrol across the country was $2.599 a litre, on Monday".
Gull up the road from me has 91 for $2.33...better fill up while the going is good :eek2:
$2.60 is seriously steep...surely the dearest its ever been !! Better dust off those EV brochures. Free road user charges till at least Match 2024 and more than $8,000 subsidy while the going is good. No wonder Iceman has dived into a new Tesla Model 3.
People will be shopping at the $2 shop if fuel gets any more expensive :eek2:

[Panda-NZ-]

Was surprised to read this in that article According to PriceWatch, the average price for petrol across the country was $2.599 a litre, on Monday.
Gull up the road from me has 91 for $2.33...better fill up while the going is good :eek2:

Get the ebike and avoid the whole petrol price fix and become healthier at the same time.

[Beagle]

Get the ebike and avoid the whole petrol price fix and become healthier at the same time.

Yes !! Having a really good test ride on a friends one in the next few weeks. Really looking forward to it. Thanks for the invite whome.
In the meantime I've really been enjoying getting back into regular walking. A slightly less fat and slightly fitter Beagle is a much happier and less stressed dog :)

[Waltzing]

Every time petrol hits a new high expected travel might mean weekend trips are reduced. But local travel will remain.

Its the longer surf trips and trips for no purpose..

Lets see if people slow and down accidents are reduced and traffic tickets issued numbers.

Higher end items at Harvey Norman but WHS doesnt sell European kitchens or German cars.

Its pretty basic stuff and its not a forecast recession.

[Beagle]

Some people have started wagging their tails and thinking the dog's made a bad call but the wily old mutt switched on his super long range sniffer and smells trouble ahead so keeps trimming down and investing in his new favorite asset class called CASH.
I really hope I am wrong but I think there's trouble ahead and I'm not the only one https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/expert-warns-auckland-covid-19-cases-could-reach-160-a-day-if-current-trend-continues/ar-AAPp8vj?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
If it goes that high it will leak everywhere thanks to the ugly underbelly of society that really don't give a stuff about anyone but themselves.

I should probably share my food delivery experiment with WHS during level 4. $160 of pantry items arrived on 5 different courier deliveries over 5 working days in 9 different boxes from all corners of the North Island including one separate courier delivery of 2 cans of fruit salad from down the country somewhere. How on earth they can make money by separately packaging and sending 2 x $1.59 cans of fruit salad is anyone's guess ? Yes everything arrived in 5 working days but yes it was an absolute dog's breakfast in more ways than one lol.

I think from memory there were 13 different emails updating me at different parts of the fractured delivery process. Never again..the amount of administration, drama, packaging and handling for $160 of food was mind boggling.

[Waltzing]

Agree its not the perfect outlook for retail in 2022.

WinnerGrinners 500 by xmas would be very surprising indeed.

[Beagle]

Why am I so down ? The reality for the Auckland region is its been an incredibly tough year. A year unlike any other. This paywalled article sums it up quite well. A full 20 weeks of lockdowns for the wider Auckland region this year and counting and what's worse, there's no end in sight. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-delta-outbreak-roger-partridge-an-end-to-new-zealand-exceptionalism/53JJNYA2PGNPR7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
Excerpts "If Auckland takes the full eight weeks to work its way through the Government's "three-step plan" for alert level 3, 1.6 million Kiwis will have endured one of the world's most stringent lockdowns for more than half a year. Seven-and-a-half weeks at levels 3 and 4 in March and April last year. Further periods at level 3 in August 2020 and then again in February and March this year. And then levels 3 and 4 since 18 August. Twenty weeks so far, with no end in sight".

"New Zealand entered the pandemic with only a third of the OECD-average number of intensive care beds per capita. Unlike other countries, the Government has done nothing over the last 18 months to increase ICU capacity. In contrast, since the onset of the pandemic, New South Wales has increased ICU capacity from about 600 beds to 1550". This is abject failure of the Ardern Govt and a complete and utter betrayal of the exceptionally hard work Aucklanders have put in.

More "lite" reading:- Auckland business's feel abandoned and ignored https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-auckland-business-abandoned-and-ignored/OV3YWMTLFJKLTPZXBEKVSNXIHA/

Even more reading:- Level 2 in Auckland looking increasingly distant https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-derek-cheng-level-2-in-auckland-looks-increasingly-distant-as-case-numbers-rise/XSM7PWPF3AW6G7KOLWRXOWTA6Q/

[Waltzing]

13084

Will try the Fruit Salad !

Well imagine what it was like in the blitz. But at least they could go down to the local for a pint if it was still open!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Update on the technicals from my perspective:

Many of you have probably been quite concerned with the recent pullback, however when you look at the big picture (monthly chart) there are zero red flags. We have had a confirmed monthly bull flag confirm, so the odds favour continuation of this.

When we zoom in to a weekly chart again we see no red flags i.e. weekly uptrend intact and EMA12 holding.

So what the hell happened with the drop from $4.25??? Essentially we had a longer term breakout (monthly) occur when daily RSI was already at/near overbought levels (you can think of a high RSI meaning 'who is still left to buy?'). This significantly increases the chance of a throwback occurring (all things equal throwbacks occur around 50% of the time). This is exactly what has occurred with a retest of that resistance at $3.90 (now acting as support). Ultimately this is bullish by confirming the breakout above that level.

Looking forwards, on the daily chart we retraced over 50% of the rise so it is unlikely we will rise straight to previous highs unless we at a minimum get a daily trend change. However I think it's likely there'll be more work to do before we get back to those highs (things got much tougher after the placement - a lot of shares out there sitting on 20% gains). Personally I'll be watching for a pullback from $4.10ish for another swing entry.

Disc: hold long term position and actively trading.

13085
13086
13087

[Waltzing]

Notice the price trend after April 2021.

[IAK]

"Sharetrader legends"- (Sell out at 4, forgoing a massive dividend)

Share price- (Recover in 24 hours)

It's a brave man who bets against the Beagle.

[Waltzing]

the stochastic 14 is not really a reliable indicator of over bought or over sold.

But the chart is still in an upward trend.

The impact of higher interest rates and higher CPI may well impact retail profits.

Outbreaks of the virus are also a reason to protect capital.

Interest rate rises will trigger a rotation into bank stocks away from growth stocks and stock that are cyclical.

[winner69]

Every time petrol hits a new high expected travel might mean weekend trips are reduced. But local travel will remain.

Its the longer surf trips and trips for no purpose..

Lets see if people slow and down accidents are reduced and traffic tickets issued numbers.

Higher end items at Harvey Norman but WHS doesnt sell European kitchens or German cars.

Its pretty basic stuff and its not a forecast recession.

European kitchens or German cars.- so that's where a lot of the spare cash is going

[bull....]

Kiwibank economists are reporting that the spending bounce back after this year's lockdown has been less sharp than it was a year ago.

Anecdotally, we’ve heard of retailers limiting their stock to just a handful of brands, and holding onto more inventory than usual. The business model has shifted form Just in Time to Just in Case. So don’t be surprised if you get the same Christmas presents as everyone else this year.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/112694/rebound-looking-less-last-year%E2%80%99s-red-bull-powered-hill-sprint-and-more

[Waltzing]

Hosking has roasted dear young Mr Hipkins this morning.

Mr B has gone to cash and its a prudent move.

The R number is still going up.

There is no firm date in place for Auckland but level 2 likely for Waka Too and possible Northland in 2 weeks time if no spread.

Auckland is another matter.

Support for hospitality, catering and retail sector needs to be top of list this week from the minister.

Cant see 5 dollars by xmas.

If the number explode in auckland then level 4 will be the only option left as the unvaccinated numbers are still too high.

Would not be surprised to see a tighter border set up.

IMF is forecasting over 5 percent global growth.

No global recession forecast and no recession forecast for NZ.

[winner69]

Christmas joy from Tom

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hosking has roasted dear young Mr Hipkins this morning.

Mr B has gone to cash and its a prudent move.

The R number is still going up.

There is no firm date in place for Auckland but level 2 likely for Waka Too and possible Northland in 2 weeks time if no spread.

Auckland is another matter.

Support for hospitality, catering and retail sector needs to be top of list this week from the minister.

Cant see 5 dollars by xmas.

If the number explode in auckland then level 4 will be the only option left as the unvaccinated numbers are still too high.

Would not be surprised to see a tighter border set up.

IMF is forecasting over 5 percent global growth.

No global recession forecast and no recession forecast for NZ.

I’m not at all predicting $5 for WHS anytime soon. I’m in the more realistic middle-of-the-road camp that thinks both the Uber-bears and Uber-bulls are both being unrealistic to varying degrees.

I think the dividend will be paid as announced. I think retail in Auckland will be open very soon as it’s due to open in the next “Alert Level 3 - Step 2” phase of the reopening plan, which I think happens not long after Auckland hits 90% first dose/75% 2nd dose, so in about 2-3 weeks.

I think it also goes without question that WHS 1st half year revenue will be down year-on-year, with a big drop in the first quarter (Aug-Oct), followed by a healthy 2nd quarter (Nov-Jan). 2nd half year performance will be fine, and will be accompanied by NZX50 index inclusion.

[Waltzing]

" NZX50 index inclusion"

wunderbar!

[Beagle]

I’m not at all predicting $5 for WHS anytime soon. I’m in the more realistic middle-of-the-road camp that thinks both the Uber-bears and Uber-bulls are both being unrealistic to varying degrees.

I think the dividend will be paid as announced. I think retail in Auckland will be open very soon as it’s due to open in the next “Alert Level 3 - Step 2” phase of the reopening plan, which I think happens not long after Auckland hits 90% first dose/75% 2nd dose, so in about 2-3 weeks.

I think it also goes without question that WHS 1st half year revenue will be down year-on-year, with a big drop in the first quarter (Aug-Oct), followed by a healthy 2nd quarter (Nov-Jan). 2nd half year performance will be fine, and will be accompanied by NZX50 index inclusion.

Why I sold...have a think about these two different situations.

Situation A just on 2 1/2 months ago.
We were the envy of the world with level 1 freedoms and safety anyone else in the world could only dream of.
WHS were on track to easily beat net profit after tax of $160m, with many expecting $170m plus.
Customers were spending freely, all shops were open and interest rates were ultra low.

Situation B - The current situation
The halo has well and truly slipped and its been exposed that Cindy's kindergarten have done nothing to improve upon our woefully inadequate level of ICU hospital beds despite having 18 months to improve the situation leaving the only effective tool in the kit to encourage everyone to vaccinate and lockdown endlessly because to do anything else will overrun the health system
The wider Auckland region, about one third of the entire population has been in one serious level of lockdown or another for more than 20 weeks and there's no sure end in sight
Its been reported that more than 13,000 business's shut permanently in September and many thousands are on the dole queue
Sales year to date have slipped 22% and analysts have downgraded the current year outlook to around $125m a significant (approx $50m) reduction from FY21.
We are on a knife edge of whether this Delta variant will explode throughout the country or not.

Okay so contrasting the above two situations.

If you did a "blind test" and had no share price history which of these situations would you say warranted a share price of ~ $3.30 and which warranted a share price of ~ $4.10 ?
I would suggest the risks and rewards of these two situations and their respective share price points are very, very different. One was a compelling buy and the other is a risky hold, (at best).

[Rawz]

If WHS is a sell then HLG must be a sell. But HLG is a hold for Master Beagle. Confused :confused:

Maybe a hold whilst selling down then becomes a sell like WHS :scared:

Beagle if you plug in $125m FY22 profit into your DCA it changes the SP by how much? Bugger all i reckon

[JohnnyTheHorse]

With increasing vaccination rates retail country wide will be open within a month, irrespective of what covid is doing. Rest of the world has managed to move on and so will we. Services sector will be most impacted.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Why I sold...have a think about these two different situations.

Situation A just on 2 1/2 months ago.
We were the envy of the world with level 1 freedoms and safety anyone else in the world could only dream of.
WHS were on track to easily beat net profit after tax of $160m, with many expecting $170m plus.
Customers were spending freely, all shops were open and interest rates were ultra low.

Situation B - The current situation
The halo has well and truly slipped and its been exposed that Cindy's kindergarten have done nothing to improve upon our woefully inadequate level of ICU hospital beds despite having 18 months to improve the situation leaving the only effective tool in the kit to encourage everyone to vaccinate and lockdown endlessly because to do anything else will overrun the health system
The wider Auckland region, about one third of the entire population has been in one serious level of lockdown or another for more than 20 weeks and there's no sure end in sight
Its been reported that more than 13,000 business's shut permanently in September and many thousands are on the dole queue
Sales year to date have slipped 22% and analysts have downgraded the current year outlook to around $125m a significant (approx $50m) reduction from FY21.
We are on a knife edge of whether this Delta variant will explode throughout the country or not.

Okay so contrasting the above two situations.

If you did a "blind test" and had no share price history which of these situations would you say warranted a share price of ~ $3.30 and which warranted a share price of ~ $4.10 ?
I would suggest the risks and rewards of these two situations and their respective share price points are very, very different. One was a compelling buy and the other is a risky hold, (at best).

The current $125 million NPAT you quote above for current financial year is a PE multiple of just 11x. Safe buying in my books, especially when that includes the current lockdown impacted sales environment.

Current Auckland lockdown has only been 7-8 weeks. Not sure what relevance there is to people lumping in 12 or 13 other lockdown weeks from the last two financial years with the current situation. maybe I’m missing the point there.

im not 100% supportive of the government actions either, my biggest gripe is they should have ASAP starting in June last year commenced building a purpose built very large quarantine center with dedicated hospital in an isolated area (Ohakea air base would have been perfect), rather than continuing MIQ in population centers for the last 18 months.

[winner69]

If WHS is a sell then HLG must be a sell. But HLG is a hold for Master Beagle. Confused :confused:

Maybe a hold whilst selling down then becomes a sell like WHS :scared:

Beagle if you plug in $125m FY22 profit into your DCA it changes the SP by how much? Bugger all i reckon

The 125m is 30% less profit than F21 so unless WHS re-rated share price could fall 30% ...maybe that's part of Beagles reasoning

[Waltzing]

"7-8 weeks"

it hardly the blitz. Not yet anyway but the R number is lurking.

HLG has auss as it revenue base.

WHS is connected to auckland.

MR B's call is perfectly understandable.

its such a fab day in the Waka Too we are all listening to a some Nena and dreaming of Nordic summers.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Christmas joy from Tom

a popular topic for media to talk about at present (supply struggles for retailers!) but both Briscoes Group and Warehouse group say they have built larger than normal inventories for the Xmas season.

Possibly a situation where the largest retailers are going to benefit the most while the smaller retail firms without the same supply chains end up losing out.

[Rawz]

The 125m is 30% less profit than F21 so unless WHS re-rated share price could fall 30% ...maybe that's part of Beagles reasoning

Would only drop in line with profit if it was the new normal.

If it was one off impact due to covid lockdowns the market would look past that, wouldnt it?

As mentioned by JohnnyTheHorse the rest of the world lives with it. The lockdowns here will end soon believe it or not.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

"7-8 weeks"

it hardly the blitz. Not yet anyway but the R number is lurking.

HLG has auss as it revenue base.

WHS is connected to auckland.

MR B's call is perfectly understandable.

its such a fab day in the Waka Too we are all listening to a soon Nena.

I did the math recently but not sure I saved the data, but the vast majority of WHS stores are outside the Auckland region (over two thirds). Stores are basically distributed with population. And Auckland is of course still served (even in lockdown) by online and click&collect.

[Beagle]

If WHS is a sell then HLG must be a sell. But HLG is a hold for Master Beagle. Confused :confused:

Maybe a hold whilst selling down then becomes a sell like WHS :scared:

Beagle if you plug in $125m FY22 profit into your DCA it changes the SP by how much? Bugger all i reckon

So just to clarify. Over the last few months we've seen WHS go from $3.30 to $4.10 a 24% rise and HLG go from ~ $7.40 to ~$7 a 5.5% decline.
Which do you think is the more logical move in the circumstances ?
Some other things that are very much on the forefront of my mind.

WHS year to date sales are down 22% and HLG only down 18-19%, (sorry I forget which) and HLG taking Govt Covid support on both sides of the Tasman and WHS directors making expensive ESG's calls on shareholders behalf and not taking Covid support and burning lots of cash as a result.

Australia is opening up a lot sooner than N.Z and HLG have strong operations there and WHS do not.

HLG's online sales are a much higher proportion of their total sales than WHS and HLG online systems vastly are better than WHS.

Glassons Au growth is going absolutely gangbusters even with extensive lockdown's in Victoria and NSW ! How much faster will they grow when the Australian economy open's up !!

[winner69]

Would only drop in line with profit if it was the new normal.

If it was one off impact due to covid lockdowns the market would look past that, wouldnt it?

Some would say that F21 profit was not normal (favourable because of covid stuff) and thus the 125m might be seen as the new 'normal' ... if so maybe 4 buck is about right but WHS would need to perform consistently

[Rawz]

So just to clarify. Over the last few months we've seen WHS go from $3.30 to $4.10 a 24% rise and HLG go from ~ $7.40 to ~$7 a 5.5% decline.
Which do you think is the more logical move in the circumstances ?
Some other things that are very much on the forefront of my mind.

WHS year to date sales are down 22% and HLG only down 18-19%, (sorry I forget which) and HLG taking Govt Covid support on both sides of the Tasman and WHS directors making expensive ESG's calls on shareholders behalf and not taking Covid support and burning lots of cash as a result.

Australia is opening up a lot sooner than N.Z and HLG have strong operations there and WHS do not.

HLG's online sales are a much higher proportion of their total sales than WHS and HLG online systems vastly are better than WHS.

Glassons Au growth is going absolutely gangbusters even with extensive lockdown's in Victoria and NSW ! How much faster will they grow when the Australian economy open's up !!

One way to look at it is keep your winner (WHS) and sell the loser (HLG).

Glassons Aus amazing I agree.

[winner69]

I cringed big time when Nick said 'I'm not concerned about Christmas' ....... (stock etc) .......statements like that often setting one up for a big fail.

A bit like Herbison of Plexure fame big comment 'we are covid recession proof' - good call eh

Nick was a bit more realistic when he commented at the same time a bigger concern was the potential for lockdowns going into the Christmas period. He said the retailer would be hit if it couldn’t open its stores and had to rely on online-only sales, despite the growth in this sales channel.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So just to clarify. Over the last few months we've seen WHS go from $3.30 to $4.10 a 24% rise and HLG go from ~ $7.40 to ~$7 a 5.5% decline.
Which do you think is the more logical move in the circumstances ?
Some other things that are very much on the forefront of my mind.

WHS year to date sales are down 22% and HLG only down 18-19%, (sorry I forget which) and HLG taking Govt Covid support on both sides of the Tasman and WHS directors making expensive ESG's calls on shareholders behalf and not taking Covid support and burning lots of cash as a result.

Australia is opening up a lot sooner than N.Z and HLG have strong operations there and WHS do not.

HLG's online sales are a much higher proportion of their total sales than WHS and HLG online systems vastly are better than WHS.

Glassons Au growth is going absolutely gangbusters even with extensive lockdown's in Victoria and NSW ! How much faster will they grow when the Australian economy open's up !!

Not sure Australia can really be said to be opening retail quicker. Level 3 phase 2 could come in as soon as next week for Auckland, which would see NZ retail 100% back open.

Meanwhile the rest of NZ (67% of population) only had retail closed for 3 weeks total since August 1st (Aug 17th to Sep 7th), with the blip of a week in Waikato which should be back open by weekend.

Across the ditch 60% of Australias population (NSW & VIC) has seen retail closed for months, with NSW finally reopening just this week.

[Beagle]

One way to look at it is keep your winner (WHS) and sell the loser (HLG).

Glassons Aus amazing I agree.

I'm a value investor mate. I buy and hold value stocks that represent value for the opportunities, growth and risks that are readily apparent. When the situation changes I adapt. Never get emotionally attached to any company, it will cloud your judgement as sure as night follows day.

[Waltzing]

Agree that WHS is well distributed. Stewart Island?

[ratkin]

So Beagle has sold, can we now expect a string of Warehouse negative posts from the old hound?

[Waltzing]

Whos going to double first.

WHS or MHJ.

Wheres the retail money going to go.

Got to favour MHJ.

MHJ smashing both WHS and OCA on orders already today.

OCA is like whatching paint dry...

[winner69]

Rents (for new tenancies) up nearly 8% from a year ago (largest increase in years) ....existing tenancies up 3% and trending up

That'll cut household spend a bit

[Rawz]

Whos going to double first.

WHS or MHJ.

Wheres the retail money going to go.

Got to favour MHJ.

MHJ smashing both WHS and OCA on orders already today.

OCA is like whatching paint dry...

Retail money surely go to MHJ in the short term.

As per market screener WHS trading on forward 11.3 p/e and MHJ trading on 9.11 p/e

MHJ better chance to beat market screeners predications based on Q1 update this morning.

[BlackPeter]

Rents (for new tenancies) up nearly 8% from a year ago (largest increase in years) ....existing tenancies up 3% and trending up

That'll cut household spend a bit

That's tough. Less money for clothes, household goods and other essential? People will need to change their buying habits and instead of shopping at HLG or the expensive boutiques they will come to The Warehouse where everybody gets a bargain.

All good :) ;

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Retail money surely go to MHJ in the short term.

As per market screener WHS trading on forward 11.3 p/e and MHJ trading on 9.11 p/e

MHJ better chance to beat market screeners predications based on Q1 update this morning.

really like MHJ - have already opined on this thread a couple of times that they would be on WHS acquisition list if they were just a NZ operation (especially since WHS closed its in-store red shed jewelry counters recently.)

nice to see that there profits were up strongly despite all the store closures.

[winner69]

That's tough. Less money for clothes, household goods and other essential? People will need to change their buying habits and instead of shopping at HLG or the expensive boutiques they will come to The Warehouse where everybody gets a bargain.

All good :) ;

But history shows that Red Sheds sales don't seem to grow much in bad financial times

[BlackPeter]

But history shows that Red Sheds sales don't seem to grow much in bad financial times

Does it?

I remember there is some correlation with the colour of government ... red government and red sheds as well as Noel Leeming (colour red as well) do well. Torpedo seven is not red, but should in my view do well given that they have stock and people will need gifts this Christmas season. Only the blue Warehouse stationary does not do well in red times, but admittedly they don't do well in blue times either :):

Here you have my investment by colours theory :p;

But doesn't matter - I think I leave the barking to others and review my holding after the WHS brought in their next just amazing Christmas sale. Don't like to sell my show ponies before their big performance ... ;) ;

[Waltzing]

Yes well no Show ponies in the south island this year as the big AMP show was cancelled. Next Year!

[BlackPeter]

Yes well no Show ponies in the south island this year as the big AMP show was cancelled. Next Year!

All good - leaves more time and money to shop in The Warehouse ... :p ... instead of spending both on the show!;

[Waltzing]

Yes better order a few items from WHS..

[winner69]

Yes better order a few items from WHS..

.......before they run out of stock eh

[Waltzing]

JBL is already out of stock for some of there stuff.. web site has SOLD OUT.

Also Looking for curved display for super wide graphics support.

Run out of multi window extended display mode space.

End of the day MR B is still in the money.

[peat]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11927-HMY-Harmoney-Corp-Limited&p=917296&viewfull=1#post917296

A link to the Harmoney thread who have reported massive growth esp in Aussie lending wondering if this is where the retail spend is coming from?

(so possibly more rel to HLG, but still....)

[BlackPeter]

... just noticed - analyst consensus on marketscreener went up this week from $3.83 to $4.45.

Lucky that analysts don't seem to read this thread :);

[Beagle]

Living with Covid
Analyst consensus price target of $4.45 feels about right but this is a 12 month price target and Waltzing has nicely articulated the risks. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/financials/

I have downgraded to hold and recently adjusted my portfolio allocation accordingly.


... just noticed - analyst consensus on marketscreener went up this week from $3.83 to $4.45.

Lucky that analysts don't seem to read this thread :);

Posted 6 October - 9 days ago, be a good chap and try and keep up :p
They say a week is a long time in politics well its also a long time in retail. In that space of time we've gone from having a reasonable degree of hope Delta could be eliminated in the Auckland region to no hope whatsoever so I would argue the risks have changed materially. Australia opening up a lot sooner and some other retailers have very fast growing operations there ;)

[BlackPeter]

Posted 6 October - 9 days ago, be a good chap and try and keep up :p
They say a week is a long time in politics well its also a long time in retail. In that space of time we've gone from having a reasonable degree of hope Delta could be eliminated in the Auckland region to no hope whatsoever so I would argue the risks have changed materially. Australia opening up a lot sooner and some other retailers have very fast growing operations there ;)

So hard to keep up ... you mean the analysts are just too slow to read this thread?

I realise that our Covid fear did increase only recently ... but still think we might overemphasize its impact on retail (not on the infection rate and on the death rate under the vulnerable population, I am concerned about the latter).

Lets face it - retail did neither crash in Brazil, nor in the US nor in the UK ... and boy - they all know what difference a full Delta sweep makes. Despite all the efforts of our anti vaxxers - NZ just has no chance to get Covid-wise into such a bad shape as these three countries (and many more) have been.

To be honest, I think you might overrate Covids impact on retail a bit ... the time of tough lockdowns is over, we just let the vulnerable who choose not to take the jab die and can keep our shops open.

But hey - at the end we both don't know how delta will impact on our retail environment under the special NZ circumstances - so, lets just agree to disagree, shall we?

[dreamcatcher]

Power cuts affecting Chinese cities will have an impact on supply chain inventory .......

[peat]

Power cuts affecting Chinese cities will have an impact on supply chain inventory .......

but china has already relented.
and opened the coal gates.

Paywalled
China’s coalmines ordered to go full throttle (theaustralian.com.au) (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/chinas-coalmines-ordered-to-go-full-throttle/news-story/14ddb58df66a9d7288b364722a4ca668)

[Panda-NZ-]

But hey - at the end we both don't know how delta will impact on our retail environment under the special NZ circumstances - so, lets just agree to disagree, shall we?

WHS up, Briscoes up, OCA sideways for years.

[dreamcatcher]

but china has already relented.
and opened the coal gates.

Paywalled
China’s coalmines ordered to go full throttle (theaustralian.com.au) (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/chinas-coalmines-ordered-to-go-full-throttle/news-story/14ddb58df66a9d7288b364722a4ca668)

My understanding was they had few million tons of Aus coal in storage sold some to India which gladly accepted at $12 discount. The remaining 1m ton was only a days worth......... still approx 40 coal ships anchored

[peat]

My understanding was they had few million tons of Aus coal in storage sold some to India which gladly accepted at $12 discount. The remaining 1m ton was only a days worth......... still approx 40 coal ships anchored

(perhaps a bit off topic)

my point was more that they are not being eco, they are pragmati
They are still punishing Australia in some areas. But they will make and burn coal to keep the home fires burning. That article says (coz I doubt many of you subscribe) that China will increase coal production by about the same amount as Aussie mines produce annually. INCREASE !! They say tens but its actually 100 so that is ten tens lol

Chinese coalmines have been *ordered to increase production by tens of millions of tonnes before the end of the year as President Xi Jinping prioritises a power crisis over reducing Beijing’s dependence on fossil fuels.

[dreamcatcher]

Off topic but relevant for The Warehouse who source majority of their sales from China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/china-orders-coalmines-to-raise-production-to-address-power-crunch

[Panda-NZ-]

Off topic but relevant for The Warehouse who source majority of their sales from China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/china-orders-coalmines-to-raise-production-to-address-power-crunch

They have great diversity in sourcing actually, moreso than other retailers.

It's why many things are in stock today.

[dreamcatcher]

They have great diversity in sourcing actually, moreso than other retailers.

It's why many things are in stock today.

That's reassuring to know going forward as this power crisis only happened in last few weeks.

[BlackPeter]

WHS up, Briscoes up, OCA sideways for years.

"OCA sideways for years" - REALLY?

13108

[Panda-NZ-]

NZX has doubled since 2017.

In a country with an aging population and unprecedented house price increase, OCA has done poorly.

[BlackPeter]

NZX has doubled since 2017.

In a country with an aging population and unprecedented house price increase, OCA has done poorly.

... and you can say that with a straight face? Strong words, but obviously not true :):

13109

Blue line is OCA, brown line is NZX50. If you consider that the NZX50 is a gross index (i.e. all dividends added, while the OCA share price is net of dividends (which have been paid separate), OCA did better than index.

Of course - there have been some other shares performing better, and many other shares performing worse.

[DonkeyKong]

... and you can say that with a straight face? Strong words, but obviously not true :):

13109

Blue line is OCA, brown line is NZX50. If you consider that the NZX50 is a gross index (i.e. all dividends added, while the OCA share price is net of dividends (which have been paid separate), OCA did better than index.

Of course - there have been some other shares performing better, and many other shares performing worse.

Hi Peter, what software are you using there? Looks interesting

[BlackPeter]

Hi Peter, what software are you using there? Looks interesting

Just the Direct Broking "Super Chart" ... actually, not that "super" if you want to make a detailed analysis (for that I would use more something like Bigcharts - but quick and easy for a brief comparison. You probably need to be a Jarden customer to use it ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Excellent news with this mornings new Covid framework announcement!

- retail will be open under every alert level
- more than doubling of resurgence payments to impacted businesses
- increased hardship support for minimum wage workers, meaning even a couple both working 40 hours on minimum wage will be getting extra payments if needed.
- enforced vaccination requirements to enter many establishments mean confidence for people to patronize premises

[winner69]

Excellent news with this mornings new Covid framework announcement!

- retail will be open under every alert level
- more than doubling of resurgence payments to impacted businesses
- increased hardship support for minimum wage workers, meaning even a couple both working 40 hours on minimum wage will be getting extra payments if needed.
- enforced vaccination requirements to enter many establishments mean confidence for people to patronize premises

Seems to be confusion about ‘each DHB’ and ‘90% of all NZers vaccinated’ before the lights are turned on.

Might be many weeks before Auckland shops open

[cymonger]

Excellent news with this mornings new Covid framework announcement!

- retail will be open under every alert level
- more than doubling of resurgence payments to impacted businesses
- increased hardship support for minimum wage workers, meaning even a couple both working 40 hours on minimum wage will be getting extra payments if needed.
- enforced vaccination requirements to enter many establishments mean confidence for people to patronize premises


I also took this as good news. New Zealand has now surpassed the US, UK, and Australia in vaccination rates. I know we like to focus on the gloom and doom around here sometimes, but that is not an insignificant advancement.

Does anyone REALLY disagree with the "coiled up spring" spending pattern people exhibit when they come out of a lockdown? It's a readily observable and predictable pattern that has as much to do with human nature as economics. The question is not "if" this is going to happen but "when?" Could be a few weeks later than expected. So what?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Seems to be confusion about ‘each DHB’ and ‘90% of all NZers vaccinated’ before the lights are turned on.

Might be many weeks before Auckland shops open

auckland will move quicker to traffic light system if it’s DHBs hit 90% (or close to it by Nov 29th), but in the meantime Auckland is still in the level 3, steps 1-2-3 system which has retail reopening at step 2.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I also took this as good news. New Zealand has now surpassed the US, UK, and Australia in vaccination rates. I know we like to focus on the gloom and doom around here sometimes, but that is not an insignificant advancement.

Does anyone REALLY disagree with the "coiled up spring" spending pattern people exhibit when they come out of a lockdown? It's a readily observable and predictable pattern that has as much to do with human nature as economics. The question is not "if" this is going to happen but "when?" Could be a few weeks later than expected. So what?

precisely - and this basically means retail remains open in 2022, bar some unfortunate new development (like a new variant or virus that is resistant to Pfizer vaccine, that also makes it through MIQ).

[Beagle]

precisely - and this basically means retail remains open in 2022, bar some unfortunate new development (like a new variant or virus that is resistant to Pfizer vaccine, that also makes it through MIQ).

Or our health system becoming overrun and given we have amongst the very lowest level's of ICU capability in the OECD that won't take much. They are reserving the right to reimpose lockdown's and I think they'll need to.

Dividend on the assumption that we're "predominantly" at level 2 by the end of October but its quite clear all of the Auckland region and much of the Waikato will still be at level 3 so I guess that begs the question of how many people live within the wider Auckland Waikato regions ? I believe the wider Auckland region is 1.6 million so surely combined this is something over 2 million or more than 40% of N.Z.'s population ? Does this meet the poorly defined term of N.Z. being predominantly at level 2 if both these regions are at level 3 ? Yes more than 50% of the country will be at level 2 but what test are the directors going to use ? How much did their expensive ESG statement about not taking Govt subsidies cost shareholders ? Can they still afford to make the dividend payment of $60.7m ? Is it prudent to do so given uncertainties ahead ?

This is what they actually said...make your own call on this


The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October. The record date
for the dividend will be 18 November 2021 and will be paid on 3 December 2021. This brings the total dividends for
the year to 35.5 cents per share declared, and represents a pay-out ratio of 70.2% of adjusted net profit....

FY22 sales for the first 8 weeks of the financial year were down 22% compared to the same period in
FY21. Despite the year starting positively, New Zealand went into a country wide Level 4 COVID-19
lockdown on 18 August – 2.5 weeks into the financial year....

The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date as a result of the decreased
sales but the Group’s bank debt facilities remain undrawn.

[bull....]

will auckland ever come out of lockdown? if your got to have the 3 dhb's in ak at 90% to move to red are we not held hostage to counties/manukau getting to that level some yr ?

[allfromacell]

will auckland ever come out of lockdown? if your got to have the 3 dhb's in ak at 90% to move to red are we not held hostage to counties/manukau getting to that level some yr ?

90% is a pipedream, very unlikely to happen imo.

You have to remember about 5% of people who get their first dose don't get their second and are not counted so the reality is you need 95% first dose.

Hopefully the gap closes as people are excluded freedoms but it's an uphill battle.

[winner69]

90% is a pipedream, very unlikely to happen imo.

You have to remember about 5% of people who get their first dose don't get their second and are not counted so the reality is you need 95% first dose.

Hopefully the gap closes as people are excluded freedoms but it's an uphill battle.

The 90% only indicative methinks …the PM said to be reviewed Nov 29 and we’ll including Auckland will all be OK for Christmas

So Christmas shopping go ahead

[Rawz]

I agree. 90% target is a joke. This government has lost the plot

[Beagle]

will auckland ever come out of lockdown? if your got to have the 3 dhb's in ak at 90% to move to red are we not held hostage to counties/manukau getting to that level some yr ?
We probably are and it seems to hinge on what the likes of gang and cult leaders like Brian Tamaki tells their supporters.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-counties-manukau-dhb-only-just-over-70-vaccinated-fully/SUK52ZYNIXEWYFAHK3LJFOCEIM/

129 cases, another record today...it should be clear to everyone this is growing very quickly.

Despite all the Govt talk today its clear this outbreak is going to get vastly worse before sometime in the (distant ?) future it gets better.

How much people spend in retail when there's many hundreds, (thousands ?) of cases a day remains to be seen.

[bull....]

its a fu...king joke there held hostage plan to sth auckland , think aucklanders will not abide by the rules now and agree outbreak will get much worse in auckland now as people see no end in sight

[allfromacell]

The 90% only indicative methinks …the PM said to be reviewed Nov 29 and we’ll including Auckland will all be OK for Christmas

So Christmas shopping go ahead

Yep, the good old classic kick the can down the road 6 weeks.

[Beagle]

Yep, the good old classic kick the can down the road 6 weeks.

I expect the daily case numbers will be truly horrifying in 6 weeks.

[Playa]

They should let fully vaccinated Akldrs with a negative test out if they want to go

[winner69]

I expect the daily case numbers will be truly horrifying in 6 weeks.

What they say about a R thingie of 1.3

129 X 1.3 X 1.3 X 1.3 x 1.3 x 1.3 and so on becomes a big number pretty quick

But no worries as the PM says the R thingie is coming down and even under red light (I think) it will be only 1.07

[winner69]

I suppose we'll hear next week whether the divie will be coming or not

About $60m is a lot of cash ....in uncertain times

[Waltzing]

Au revoir mon ami!

[winner69]

Au revoir!

Doesn’t that translate to good bye ……. Bloody heck

You OK waltzingman?

[winner69]

OneRepublic had a song Au Revoir. …so if you not yourself today maybe have a listen

Lyrics
Today I'm not myself
And you, you're someone else
And all these rules don't fit
And all that starts can quit
What a peculiar state, we're in
What a peculiar state, we're in
Let's play a game
Where all of the lives we lead
Could change
Let's play a game
Where nothing that we can see
The same
But we'll find other pieces to the puzzles
Slippin' out under the locks
I could show you how many moves to checkmate right now
We could take apart this life we're building
And pack it up inside a box
All that really matters is we're doing it right now
Right now
But we'll find other pieces to the puzzles
Slippin' out under the locks
I could show you how many moves to checkmate right now
We could take apart this life we're building
And pack it up inside a box
All that really matters is we're doing it right now
Right now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJq-zHksMr8

[Waltzing]

Winner... go west young man.

All entities moving west. This exchange is East.

Its time to start moving West.

Will be deploying soon in Europe and then we wont be allowed to make silly posts here at all.

And we dont do songs in English.

This is for you Winner.. Now in the central north island in the 1970's you could meet members of the opera community and they would be listening to this. That's right this land was right up there in the 1970's just ask Dame K.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWMrPQ0VKWg



Borders open soon, time to start get out the the bikes bags for some south island trips; those big sculling loom bags, and then May will come round soon enough.

The boys will have some boats for us to test with as they know who to keep in with and they Hate North Islanders!

[Beagle]

Judith Collins says it on behalf on all Aucklanders https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-tearful-national-party-leader-judith-collins-heartbroken-for-auckland-businesses/XV4GGEORABZIRNBBKEV26CKHIE/

She reckons the wider Auckland region is about 40% of N.Z.'s population. Add in the Waikato region in lockdown and soon to be Northland with cases up there today and that's quite likely to amount to about half of the population of the country in level 3 lockdown. Warehouse said dividend is on the assumption of predominantly level 2...I would say half of N.Z.'s population in level 3 means by most reasonable interpretations of the word "predominantly" means the test isn't met. Given the level of ongoing uncertainty it would appear to be imprudent to pay out $60.7m in dividends in unprecedented times like this with the chances of more Covid spread south of the Waikato region.

I reckon payment of the dividend is at best, a 50/50 call given the board have "form" when it comes to cancelling dividends before.

I think it was clear to everyone that Delta is different so the boards decision to burn through their cash rather than taking Govt Covid support is looking more and more reckless with each passing day. I'm calling it, their decision was a breech of their fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of shareholders. Heads should roll, they're incompetent. These people have let ESG considerations dominate their thinking. A sad sign of the times we are living in when all things ESG seem to trump all other considerations.

[Waltzing]

Beagles ... gotta love the Hunt..

[nztx]

Our dividend curry - you reckon there - Beagle ? ;)

Well they could keep the Ca$h and do a share buy back instead - none of us would object much :)

Or do nothing - that way the extra value accumulates into potential NTA & SP values :)

It may save some of us getting stung @ 39% on the Socialist deemed excesses :)

[Waltzing]

It was a stock to move some off the table in light of economies in the west opening up and moving exchanges ASX first and then Europe later in the new year as case numbers drop.

Not enough liquid to exit all positions in entities yet, 50 % moved.

Mr B has summed it up and Bull with the "Shambles" or similar statement.

Business are going to be wondering what rules apply to them and how they are going to manage everything day to day.

The so called GVT had 16 months to get its ducks in a line.

Geo Risk is real and the games a foot.

NZ could have thought BIG and gone for a world beating solution but they thought small..

c'est la vie.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeRwBiu4wfQ

[Panda-NZ-]

Vaccination rates at 70%, a 20% jump from last week.

It's really strange that we aren't open for business during summer.

[Waltzing]

Just remember as Hillary has just stated on Tik Tok Seven News there is a super spreader event this xmas coming to a town , city, beach, park, lake, camping ground near you, when 2 million aucklanders all try to escape auckland at once.

as Hillary pointed out, Border control anyone to help check paper work? No border practical of course. Cant imagine why she thought there would be a border operating after Dec 1.

Shop now. Quick, or soon, or online.

Dont forget to get that full face mask rebreather unit cause even thought the chances are small of a break through you just dont want to run the risk after you have put in 10 years of U2 training.

Hillary is going to open up the country!!!!! :confused: :eek2: :scared: :ohmy:

Well that it she's spoken and the PM might as well just ask Hillary when she has to do it!!!!

its a Tik Tok country now people but i really think Allison needs to get some dance lessons from the blonde sports girl.

If you really want Olympic class stuff though there is a tall brunette who never goes on dancing with the stars. Trained by the best in sydney and london.

Back to the money honey.

And if the Div is postponed you might be able to rebuy some back at 3.60-3.70.. You never known your luck but you would hope that T7 has a higher margin on its stock and the cans of fruit dont come from bluff.....

[winner69]

"………….

I reckon payment of the dividend is at best, a 50/50 call given the board have "form" when it comes to cancelling dividends before.

I think it was clear to everyone that Delta is different so the boards decision to burn through their cash rather than taking Govt Covid support is looking more and more reckless with each passing day. I'm calling it, their decision was a breech of their fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of shareholders. Heads should roll, they're incompetent. These people have let ESG considerations dominate their thinking. A sad sign of the times we are living in when all things ESG seem to trump all other considerations.


I’ve thought about that divie …..it will be paid as advised.

Jeez imagine the carnage if they cancelled it ….and the loss of investor good will.

Even if cash has been ‘significantly run down’ they can alway use the overdraft facilities ..boot first company to borrow to pay divies.

Any retail nationwide opens onbDecember 1st and that huge pent up demand will burst forth and the cash coffers will be overflowing by Christmas.

And then onwards to making $160m in F22 …..an eps of 43 cents so WHS currently trades at a PE of 9 (cum dividend) and a prospective dividend yield of 11% (gross) …..[SIZE=1much better than going east waltzingman eh[/SIZE]

No worries here

[Waltzing]

Winner we only moved 50% percent of the position to ASX stocks:

Yes short term the profits will probably continue.

Mr B voiced concerned we had over the P&L. You will notice many of these retailers have Older Ascii text based screens at the counters.

Nothing wrong with that but it shows you that the retail inventory system are older and how WHS handles its IT will be critical.

Then if the move to cloud that brings a whole new nightmare as IT people start to realise that just a new server model that replies on REST API's

the nightmare of moving older systems can actually have a huge effect in the next few years on getting those logistic system more efficient.

the big moves in the future will be in travel and travel technologies.

Yes the DIV is huge! Not doubt about it but the near term profit on the trade out weights being stuck in a NZ stock that faces head winds.

There are 40% gains to be made next year on other exchanges in certain sectors.

A diversified portfolios is safer than going overweight on retail companies with old technologies.

There is a chance that Retail NZ is going to be left so far behind technology wise in the next 5 years .

Every time we see those old ascii screens i start to think OH dear.

Notice that MS's new GUI is starting to look like a phone as they start to create a more plug and play OS.

Plug and Play is where its at and the more i get to play with our new toy the more i realise the future is this distributed software model that runs on multiple OS's.

never want to go back to using standard stuff that cant move across boundaries.

These firms face some big problems if they havnt started to move data where it can be reused for the new retail experiences.

[Beagle]

I’ve thought about that divie …..it will be paid as advised.

Jeez imagine the carnage if they cancelled it ….and the loss of investor goof will.

Even if cash has been ‘significantly run down’ they can alway use the overdraft facilities ..boot first company to borrow to pay divies.

Any retail nationwide opens onbDecember 1st and that huge pent up demand will burst forth and the cash coffers will be overflowing by Christmas.

And then onwards to making $160m in F22 …..an eps of 43 cents so WHS currently trades at a PE of 9 (cum dividend) and a prospective dividend yield of 11% (gross) …..[SIZE=1much better than going east waltzingman eh[/SIZE]

No worries here

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/financials/
Average broker forecast remains at $126m (eps 37 cps, forward PE 11) but I think there is real risk to the downside now as Covid numbers are set to explode and people with or without lockdowns will be more inclined to shelter in place at home. WHS online systems (my, and my friends experiment generated the same result), are very much second rate.

I got to thinking this week that its the younger people that will lead the rebound in retail and we both know there's a different retailer that really targets the younger demographic and has superb online systems.

WHS is scheduled to provide an update on Q1 sales on 12 November. If they're going to cancel / defer the dividend I expect they will do it then on the back of very disappointing first quarter sales (down YTD 22% will have a severe effect on Q1 profitability).

There's plenty to worry about, Covid numbers exploding, a board that puts all things ESG on a pedestal above almost everything else and supply chain challenges to name just 3.

[Snoopy]

I’ve thought about that divie …..it will be paid as advised.

Jeez imagine the carnage if they cancelled it ….and the loss of investor goof will.


I love the way you bring obscure investment lingo back into the domain of everyday use Winner. I had to look this one up though:

'Goof will': The unrealistic hope(s) of stupid investors, expecting a return that just cannot be justified on any rational basis

Good one! Although I am not sure if there is any real consequence of the Warehouse losing a bit of that? Not sure what the solution is though. In this low interest rate environment, maybe just a reset of expected returns based on more historic interest settings and market trading patterns?

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Winner we only moved 50% percent of the position to ASX stocks:

Yes short term the profits will probably continue.

Mr B voiced concerned we had over the P&L. You will notice many of these retailers have Older Ascii text based screens at the counters.

Nothing wrong with that but it shows you that the retail inventory system are older and how WHS handles its IT will be critical.

Then if the move to cloud that brings a whole new nightmare as IT people start to realise that just a new server model that replies on REST API's

the nightmare of moving older systems can actually have a huge effect in the next few years on getting those logistic system more efficient.

the big moves in the future will be in travel and travel technologies.

Yes the DIV is huge! Not doubt about it but the near term profit on the trade out weights being stuck in a NZ stock that faces head winds.

There are 40% gains to be made next year on other exchanges in certain sectors.

A diversified portfolios is safer than going overweight on retail companies with old technologies.

There is a chance that Retail NZ is going to be left so far behind technology wise in the next 5 years .

Every time we see those old ascii screens i start to think OH dear.

Notice that MS's new GUI is starting to look like a phone as they start to create a more plug and play OS.

Plug and Play is where its at and the more i get to play with our new toy the more i realise the future is this distributed software model that runs on multiple OS's.

never want to go back to using standard stuff that cant move across boundaries.

These firms face some big problems if they havnt started to move data where it can be reused for the new retail experiences.

Great post waltzingman, especially the interesting and intriguing insights into technology retailers use.

Have you any insights into HLG technology, at the POS. Last time I bought from them in store the POS didn’t look that switched on……but what the heck do I know.

Online works OK’ish

[winner69]

I love the way you bring obscure investment lingo back into the domain of everyday use Winner. I had to look this one up though:

'Goof will': The unrealistic hope(s) of stupid investors, expecting a return that just cannot be justified on any rational basis

Good one! Although I am not sure if there is any real consequence of the Warehouse losing a bit of that? Not sure what the solution is though. In this low interest rate environment, maybe just a reset of expected returns based on more historic interest settings and market trading patterns?

SNOOPY

Very good snoops

So can I assume you are not a goofball and not interested in ‘investing’ in WHS

[Waltzing]

Winner - tech informed this morning that some older technologies continue to be used as the cost of putting a terminal linked by dedicated lines back to the servers is still cheaper than a whole new cloud system.

Just saying that the data needs to be in a format where the shopper can see a lot more in Virtual modes and fashion retail this is important. Buying buckets and spades at the warehouse isnt a problem for going to the beach.

As investors just looking at a P&L published in the annual report isnt going to cut it in terms of going overweight.

Probably why a lot of retail investors will go for retirement stocks. The medical facilities are kept modern and its a no brainer if the financials are clear. It just if the capital gains taxes on suites chip away at the retail investors capital gains.

WHS is now a GROUP and that means how are there systems working together and not duplicating admin and IT.

Margins and stock turn critical in this types of retail groups.

News this morning that all regions will have be to over 90 before auckland border opens.

As Hillary said OPEN! Gvt is starting to back itselfs into a corner and no one has in business has certainty.

Its all becoming a coin toss.

WHS directors are between a R and H.

[DonkeyKong]

Just for a bit of fun. I am pulling out the crystal ball.

As has been covered on this thread before. “The final dividend has been declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October.”. With key word “predominantly” being somewhat vague. And which measurement they would use also being vague.

The definition of “predominantly” is “for the most part“.

It is most likely Auckland and parts of the Waikato will still be in level 3 at the end of October.

At 30 June 2021, stats NZ estimates the NZ population to be 5,122,600 and Aucklands at 1.72 million. At the 2018 census they have Waikato at 458,202. So without taking into account it being parts of the Waikato region in level 3. Auckland plus Waikato is roughly 42.5% of NZ.

So if they used population as the measure. Then by definition, New Zealand is “for the most part” in level 2, i.e. at 57.5%. However, not significantly for the most part.

Which means they could give the dividend. But since it is not significantly for the most part, they could be prudent and justify not giving the dividend.

So what else might come into play?
- There is the cash burn issue beagle has mentioned. (I haven’t looked into this myself)
- The new traffic light system should come into play for Auckland in December. Opening retail shopping at the physical stores for the warehouse group.
- Do they use a measure other than population? Eg store locations?
- 70% of WHS shareholders are insiders. Do they want their dividend or would it shoot them in the foot? How much influence do they have?

My prediction. They will cancel the dividend to see how the Christmas period goes. And a reaction share price drop of 5-10% i.e. the dividend plus a little bit more for panic selling. Then if things go well, maybe there will be a special dividend.

Putting away the crystal ball now.

[nztx]

Just for a bit of fun. I am pulling out the crystal ball.

As has been covered on this thread before. “The final dividend has been declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October.”. With key word “predominantly” being somewhat vague. And which measurement they would use also being vague.

The definition of “predominantly” is “for the most part“.

It is most likely Auckland and parts of the Waikato will still be in level 3 at the end of October.

At 30 June 2021, stats NZ estimates the NZ population to be 5,122,600 and Aucklands at 1.72 million. At the 2018 census they have Waikato at 458,202. So without taking into account it being parts of the Waikato region in level 3. Auckland plus Waikato is roughly 42.5% of NZ.

So if they used population as the measure. Then by definition, New Zealand is “for the most part” in level 2, i.e. at 57.5%. However, not significantly for the most part.

Which means they could give the dividend. But since it is not significantly for the most part, they could be prudent and justify not giving the dividend.

So what else might come into play?
- There is the cash burn issue beagle has mentioned. (I haven’t looked into this myself)
- The new traffic light system should come into play for Auckland in December. Opening retail shopping at the physical stores for the warehouse group.
- Do they use a measure other than population? Eg store locations?
- 70% of WHS shareholders are insiders. Do they want their dividend or would it shoot them in the foot? How much influence do they have?

My prediction. They will cancel the dividend to see how the Christmas period goes. And a reaction share price drop of 5-10% i.e. the dividend plus a little bit more for panic selling. Then if things go well, maybe there will be a special dividend.

Putting away the crystal ball now.



or they could simply defer paying out until later, like many did in & following earlier lock downs .. :)

MHJ did this dividend deferral type job after declaring a dividend.

[Beagle]

For what its worth I'd put money on your crystal ball being accurate. Predominantly is probably derived from the word dominate. Dominate does not speak of just a little more than 50%

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/predominantly#:~:text=Define%20predominantly.%20pr edominantly%20synonyms%2C%20predominantly%20pronun ciation%2C%20predominantly%20translation%2C,Most%2 0common%20or%20conspicuous%3B%20main%20or%20preval ent%3A%20%22Egrets%2C

[DonkeyKong]

or they could simply defer paying out until later, like many did in & following earlier lock downs .. :)

MHJ did this dividend deferral type job after declaring a dividend.

That would be interesting. I hadn’t considered that.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just for a bit of fun. I am pulling out the crystal ball.

As has been covered on this thread before. “The final dividend has been declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October.”. With key word “predominantly” being somewhat vague. And which measurement they would use also being vague.

The definition of “predominantly” is “for the most part“.

It is most likely Auckland and parts of the Waikato will still be in level 3 at the end of October.

At 30 June 2021, stats NZ estimates the NZ population to be 5,122,600 and Aucklands at 1.72 million. At the 2018 census they have Waikato at 458,202. So without taking into account it being parts of the Waikato region in level 3. Auckland plus Waikato is roughly 42.5% of NZ.

So if they used population as the measure. Then by definition, New Zealand is “for the most part” in level 2, i.e. at 57.5%. However, not significantly for the most part.

Which means they could give the dividend. But since it is not significantly for the most part, they could be prudent and justify not giving the dividend.

So what else might come into play?
- There is the cash burn issue beagle has mentioned. (I haven’t looked into this myself)
- The new traffic light system should come into play for Auckland in December. Opening retail shopping at the physical stores for the warehouse group.
- Do they use a measure other than population? Eg store locations?
- 70% of WHS shareholders are insiders. Do they want their dividend or would it shoot them in the foot? How much influence do they have?

My prediction. They will cancel the dividend to see how the Christmas period goes. And a reaction share price drop of 5-10% i.e. the dividend plus a little bit more for panic selling. Then if things go well, maybe there will be a special dividend.

Putting away the crystal ball now.


The dividend announcement regarding “most of country being in level 2 at end of October” was done before the Auckland 3-step reopening process was announced (which has retail reopening under level 3 at “step 2”), and also before the traffic light system was announced (for which retail is open under every level).

by “level 2”, management was highly likely to be referring to retail being open, which now is no longer limited to level 2 conditions.

The government has essentially all but guaranteed Auckland region retail will be back open again before Xmas (in either “level 3 step 2”, or under traffic light “red” level). there is no vaccine level requirement for retail opening in Auckland under level 3 step 2. It could in fact happen next week for all we know (though I think is more likely a few weeks longer away). The new vaccine mandate also does not apply for retail, meaning they can reopen retail before the vaccine certificate program is in place.

Given that, and the strong retail spending numbers outside of Auckland (and even inside Auckland under click and collect and delivery conditions), I think WHS management will be comfortable with the dividend payment proceeding, even with in store retail shopping not being open in Auckland & Waikato at end of October.

Yes there is a chance the dividend is delayed, but I think you all are way overhyping the situation. Even then a minor time delay for the dividend payment is just that, minor.

‘the dividend payment, while large, is a small portion of their cash on hand - I think the conditions for which they will consider not paying it are not present.

Lastly, I think the last line of the dividend announcement gives a very clear indication about management commitment to paying dividends: “We are pleased to be able to declare a final dividend, even in the wake of further COVID-19 lockdown periods following year end”

[LaserEyeKiwi]

FYI the annual WHS shareholder meeting was announced yesterday for November 26th.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381652

[LaserEyeKiwi]

And here comes Covid in Christchurch just to make a mockery of my dividend optimism above. Ha ha ha.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Honestly people, we are talking about another 4 weeks of restrictions... With supply constraints and pent up lockdown demand there is going to be another retail boom over summer. We've seen it all before.

Will the dividend be deferred? Possible. Will the dividend be reduced? Possible. Will it matter in 6 months time? No.

[Rawz]

My mate that works at the WHS said labour day sales were huge. Caused a 3 day backlog.

But also says courier network is killing them. However they have a solution so all good.

Probably defer the dividend like MHJ did. That will keep the SP intact. May as well hang on for it early next year

[Waltzing]

"However they have a solution so all good."

thats the kind of information taa kill for..

that why selling a whole position before the bombing run starts all the time isnt backing your US 5 inch mark 53 anti aircraft shells (Vaccines shots plus boosters) ..(brain power)

Used to spend saturday afternoons with a real life Lara Croft while she fired off 105's at range practise.

Totally Built, what a Bod...

Helmets on boys and girls... incoming...never waste a good crisis...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

My mate that works at the WHS said labour day sales were huge. Caused a 3 day backlog.

But also says courier network is killing them. However they have a solution so all good.

Probably defer the dividend like MHJ did. That will keep the SP intact. May as well hang on for it early next year

”they have a solution” …. That is a massive tease.

I really hope they are working on their own delivery network, that would be amazing.

[Rawz]

”they have a solution” …. That is a massive tease.

I really hope they are working on their own delivery network, that would be amazing.

Why would you want a whole lot of capital tied up in trucks and vans for fmcg? What a nightmare.
Or do you want them to have an owner driver model?

Either way covid wont be here forever and click and collect is making a big comeback. Let the customers be the courier drivers

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Why would you want a whole lot of capital tied up in trucks and vans for fmcg? What a nightmare.
Or do you want them to have an owner driver model?

Either way covid wont be here forever and click and collect is making a big comeback. Let the customers be the courier drivers

New Zealand’s courier system is terrible, and if you want to be the biggest online retailer in NZ, you have to do your own fulfillment and last mile, even if only in the main centers (just start with Auckland). With themarket.com business model they will also be fulfilling orders for other retailers, which is exactly the Amazon model.

[winner69]

JBHiFi Q1 NZ sales down 6.4% on pcp

If Noel Leeming about the same it will be great result

[LaserEyeKiwi]

JBHiFi Q1 NZ sales down 6.4% on pcp

If Noel Leeming about the same it will be great result

That is good considering that’s for the 3 months ending September 30th, so half of the period Retail was closed in Auckland.

[Waltzing]

Click and Collect? Relying on sunday drivers who are bored at home and want to go site seeing in cities.. Well suppose it might be an attraction for some.

Oh.. well stock optimisation of those fruit salad distribution warehouse shipments to hungry Beagles should do it.

Perhaps more people eat Baked beans south of waikato and fruit salads on the north shore .

This should mean the next time a Beagles orders fruit salad it doesnt ship from Bluff.

Cant see this really putting EPS up by anything stunning thought. It profits increases in T7 and NL that is needed and cant see it soon.

[Beagle]

Had some baked beans on toast this morning that arrived some time back from WHS. Tasted pretty good but more memorable were the 13 different emails pertaining to my $160 food order and various updates on shipping during lockdown pertaining to the 5 different courier deliveries on 5 different days in 9 different boxes from WHS. Lost track of where the Baked Beans came from, might have been airfreighted from Invercargill lol.

One of my best mates had the almost identical experience with his food order so nothing exceptional about my deliveries he assured me.
Neither of us can be bothered with all the drama again at this stage but you never know, if there were thousands of Covid cases a day and we we're in lockdown code crimson red maybe we might get desperate enough again.

[Waltzing]

Alert Level .... CRIMSON RED!

Scheisse! :scared:

[Waltzing]

Time to buy more ARG but they are already buying!

[Beagle]

Only a matter of days in my opinion and N.Z. will predominantly be in lockdown. By the time they do their trading update for the first quarter on 12 November it will have dawned on them that Delta is different, (I would have thought that much was perfectly obvious many months ago) and is having a very different and more significant impact to the last time they correctly took the wage subsidy and then subsequently incorrectly repaid it to kowtow to political pressure.

This time shareholders will be the sacrificial lamb and the ones directly paying for the directors and senior management ESG boldness...these same directors and management that keep collecting their full fees and salaries are happy to make these bold ESG calls to not take legitimate Government Covid support and putting shareholders dividends to the slaughter just so they can look good from an ESG perspective.

I put it to you folks that they are in breech of their fiduciary obligations to put shareholders rights first and foremost and are blinded by their obsession with all things ESG.

[Panda-NZ-]

WHS up significantly even excl dividends.

It'll be fine and there will never be another lockdown given vaccination rates.

[Waltzing]

well Winner Grinner one could say its building a new base line here...

Also looking out on NZ it looks like a country enlarging it centralised systems at a time when Fibre is providing business with new opportunities.

Fibre could be what saves retail in that it no longer expensive to move data around the country.

Business in NZ could move ahead of govt but retail will need to invest in IT and that means handing out large DIV's now and next year might not be a great idea if they want to world class retail experiences.

magnit even grow earning 40 percent and even Moscow these days has some High tech tax collection systems in retail.

Cant wait to get back to europe to show off our new toys for the Meta data universe...ooops not supposed to talk about that one..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Government figures released today shows both GST and company tax collected for the September quarter (which included 6 weeks of Auckland lockdown, and a couple of weeks of nationwide lockdown) was STRONGER than expected.

Yes you read that right: GST and company profits were HIGHER than expected, and that was based on expectations from BEFORE the lockdowns happened.

The NZ economy is in beast mode right now.

[Waltzing]

"The NZ economy is in beast mode right now."

yes but based on what? bonds being sold to finance debt?

cripe if this is a good High Mode when does the bow wave start to hit drag.

central models never work in the end against distributed they get delays like cars in single lanes.

this delta strike hasnt start to hit debt levels yet.

The stronger revenue is just debt recycling.

Yes export agri sector is saving the show but the forward debt is not something that is just a number on a balance sheet. They did not do MMT, they actually sold bonds on the open market. It not fake money its not MMT. This brought forward debt is real.

[Beagle]

Government figures released today shows both GST and company tax collected for the September quarter (which included 6 weeks of Auckland lockdown, and a couple of weeks of nationwide lockdown) was STRONGER than expected.

Yes you read that right: GST and company profits were HIGHER than expected, and that was based on expectations from BEFORE the lockdowns happened.

The NZ economy is in beast mode right now.

Not sure about that but inflation is definitely in beast mode :eek2:

[Waltzing]

"inflation is definitely in beast mode"

bow wave ...:eek2:

[winner69]

This question in the Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Survey is generally a good insight to future consumer spend.

Measure down to 2000 recessionary and GFC times

Might not mean anything this time as world is getting weirder and weirder

he major factor that has been weighing on household sentiment has been weakness in spending appetites (Westpac)

[Waltzing]

"Measure down to 2000 recessionary and GFC times"

wait till infection rates go up and mask sales go sky high again...some spending.. after xmas imagine the spreading at new years in amongst younger generation.

they are just going to go FULL ON for a drink or three , or four, or five..

[Rawz]

Seems people arnt following their answer. I.e. they know its a bad time to be spending on major household items but they are still doing so.

People expect to be bailed out these days. Ever since the GFC its been pretty clear that govts and central banks will save the day. Whether its wage subsidies, stimulus cheques, money printing, yield curve control etc

No worries W69. Its all good. Full risk, full debt, thats how to live.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This question in the Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Survey is generally a good insight to future consumer spend.

Measure down to 2000 recessionary and GFC times

Might not mean anything this time as world is getting weirder and weirder

he major factor that has been weighing on household sentiment has been weakness in spending appetites (Westpac)

that graph doesn’t match up with the massive record retail spending over the last 12 months.

[winner69]

that graph doesn’t match up with the massive record retail spending over the last 12 months.

Not really MASSIVE over last 12 months

A couple of dips but soon back to trend ..... hopefully back to trend again soon

Wonder what the picture will look like in a years time? My guess below long term trend

Suppose we are looking through different lenses (maybe rear vision and forward looking) or possibly its a case of both of us seeing only what we want to ee

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not really MASSIVE over last 12 months

A couple of dips but soon back to trend ..... hopefully back to trend again soon

Wonder what the picture will look like in a years time? My guess below long term trend

Suppose we are looking through different lenses (maybe rear vision and forward looking) or possibly its a case of both of us seeing only what we want to ee

was just pointing out that the last 12 months has seen record amount of retail spending far above historical levels, yet the sentiment graph of “good time to buy major household item?” Was well below long term average.

in your last post, what does “core retail” include? Would be interesting to see it broken down (household durables or similar would be more relevant for non-food retailing?)

[Waltzing]

"Ever since the GFC its been pretty clear that govts and central banks will save the day"

someone better tell MR O that those IUO's are worthless then..... well they arnt and they will be paid back you better believe it. Else the yield curve will go sky high. Times up on that one as you can see the BOC refusing to bail out EV foreign bond holders..

But that is a way off and this summer it shop, shop, shop... as the Kiwi's and KEU's (Kiwi Euros) want there days in the sun followed by what ever they want to drink as the sun sets on the beach or the deck beside the pool.

Yes march/ april should bring some happy div holders.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

"Ever since the GFC its been pretty clear that govts and central banks will save the day"

someone better tell MR O that those IUO's are worthless then..... well they arnt and they will be paid back you better believe it. Else the yield curve will go sky high. Times up on that one as you can see the BOC refusing to bail out EV foreign bond holders..

But that is a way off and this summer it shop, shop, shop... as the Kiwi's and KEU's (Kiwi Euros) want there days in the sun followed by what ever they want to drink as the sun sets on the beach or the deck beside the pool.

Yes march/ april should bring some happy div holders.

Central banks can only save the day in a stable low inflation environment. If this inflation persists it's possible the game is up and we are in for some serious pain.

[Waltzing]

" in for some serious pain."

can this at least wait till after april ...

not sure if there is anything at the WHS to buy but maybe the leg press at T7 ... big item.. not sure where to put it.. run out of garages..and car ports.

[Beagle]

Central banks can only save the day in a stable low inflation environment. If this inflation persists it's possible the game is up and we are in for some serious pain.

That Sept quarter inflation shocker has seriously driven up 10 year Govt bond rates and undermined the valuation of a lot of NZX stocks, (not much of which has been reflected in the WHS share price yet). Many countries overseas do not have the problem to nearly the same extent and they don't have the ever increasingly intense woke central Govt socialism either. I am in the process of adapting my portfolio for the changing times with a much stronger overseas focus.

[Panda-NZ-]

Interest rates rising faster than the rest of the world.. due to our strong outlook will probably increase the NZD.

[nztx]

Interest rates rising faster than the rest of the world.. due to our strong outlook will probably increase the NZD.


And as they land here - perhaps reduced available spending while all with heavy indebtedness scurry around
trying to make a dent in their debt piles to reduce the cost of using OPM from lower interest times ? ;)

[winner69]

Looking to the future this thing called the Great Resignation / Big Quit could be a bit on a drag for the likes of TWG

The obvious impact is wages will rise and profits will fall. Less obvious is that many are looking for lifestyle changes (like people are leaving Auckland to greener pastures elsewhere) and and more work life flexibility.

.... there's even the concept of the “DIY family” where rather than outsourcing everything, from childcare to home improvement, many families, after two years of working and living from home, realise they quite like it. They are prepared to spend more time trying to do things for themselves rather than work harder and harder making more and more money, just to spend it on outsourcing things they can do themselves. There is also a broader sense of “taking back control” of your life.

Such changes could impact consumer demand over time

Pandemics do this sort of thing: they change us in ways that are impossible to predict.

But short to medium term wages rising and profit falling is on the cards ... probably not good for TWG



https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-great-resignation-on-its-way-to-nz

[Panda-NZ-]

Looking to the future this thing called the Great Resignation / Big Quit could be a bit on a drag for the likes of TWG

Except they have been reducing staff, even from head office, and will likely continue to do so.

[BlackPeter]

Latest ANZ Research does not look that happy either: Retailers beware!

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2021/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20211029.pdf

Assume however that the likes of WHS (selling all sorts of essentials) might get lighter off than the likes of HLG (mainly focussed on fashion) ... and hey, for consumers it might mean a handbrake on inflation ... which is good :):

[Panda-NZ-]

You still can't really travel overseas currently, which means more for retailers.

[winner69]

Latest ANZ Research does not look that happy either: Retailers beware!

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2021/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20211029.pdf

Assume however that the likes of WHS (selling all sorts of essentials) might get lighter off than the likes of HLG (mainly focussed on fashion) ... and hey, for consumers it might mean a handbrake on inflation ... which is good :):

All those graphs don’t match up with the massive record retail spending over the last 12 months.

Stupid surveys …and bank economist interpretations

[Panda-NZ-]

Some buzz words vs reality.

[BlackPeter]

All those graphs don’t match up with the massive record retail spending over the last 12 months.

Stupid surveys …and bank economist interpretations

Actually, I don't think there should be a 1 to 1 correlation.

Consumer Confidence Survey is based on the question "Is it now a good time to buy an expensive household item", while record retail spending might be as well caused by the rapidly increasing prices for food, essentials, petrol and similar. People need to spend more money for stuff they need, just because prices are going up. One more reason for retailers selling non essential stuff to be worried. Nobody can spend the same dollar twice :):

The other thing is ... Consumer Confidence was not down the last 12 months, it just got down now. No point in correlating with the record sales numbers over the last year, you need to see what impact it has on the sales numbers of the 12 months to come.

But sure - economists are not better in predicting the future than stock market analysts, share trader legends or anybody else ... :p;

[winner69]

Actually, I don't think there should be a 1 to 1 correlation.

Consumer Confidence Survey is based on the question "Is it now a good time to buy an expensive household item", while record retail spending might be as well caused by the rapidly increasing prices for food, essentials, petrol and similar. People need to spend more money for stuff they need, just because prices are going up. One more reason for retailers selling non essential stuff to be worried. Nobody can spend the same dollar twice :):

The other thing is ... Consumer Confidence was not down the last 12 months, it just got down now. No point in correlating with the record sales numbers over the last year, you need to see what impact it has on the sales numbers of the 12 months to come.

But sure - economists are not better in predicting the future than stock market analysts, share trader legends or anybody else ... :p;

My comment was basically a tongue in cheek repeat what LEK said yesterday on much the same data.

You are right ….consumer confidence (esp the big item question) is a lead indicator with up to six months lag.

Interestingly sales of durables / apparel haven’t been growing since June …..before the lock downs and then they have hurt retailers since mid August.

[Panda-NZ-]

The other thing is ... Consumer Confidence was not down the last 12 months, it just got down now. No point in correlating with the record sales numbers over the last year, you need to see what impact it has on the sales numbers of the 12 months to come.


The weather is so nice though.

It's better to spend now than risk inflation next year.
The only alternative is to save which means -4% returns and around 5% higher prices.

[winner69]

For those interested

A year or so old this chart but it shows that over prior 36 years of there’s a 79% correlation (pretty strong) between confidence surveys and retail spend 3 months later

[BlackPeter]

The weather is so nice though.

It's better to spend now than risk inflation next year.
The only alternative is to save which means -4% returns and around 5% higher prices.

Not quite - average stock market return is 8% ... this means putting the money into shares instead of buying now would give you with 4% inflation still 4% more to buy in a year from now :):

[BlackPeter]

For those interested

A year or so old this chart but it shows that over prior 36 years of there’s a 79% correlation (pretty strong) between confidence surveys and retail spend 3 months later


Interesting ... given the three month lag time this might mean the buying baisse might overlay the end of year shopping spree. Will be fascinating to find out, which driver is stronger.

[winner69]

And ANZ have this chart showing the relationship between confidence survey results and GDP with a 5 month lag

Always good to see if thing like GDP (and like retail sales in previous post) are likely to get better or slow down based on consumer confidence. ……esp changes in direction of the consumer line on the chart

[LaserEyeKiwi]

My comment was basically a tongue in cheek repeat what LEK said yesterday on much the same data.

You are right ….consumer confidence (esp the big item question) is a lead indicator with up to six months lag.

Interestingly sales of durables / apparel haven’t been growing since June …..before the lock downs and then they have hurt retailers since mid August.

well it wasn’t an incorrect observation was it? The retail confidence surveys over the last 12-18 months were well below the historical average, while actual retail spending was well above historical average - which is a clear reversal of the correlation pre-2020.

What has changed recently that makes you think the historical correlation will return? Household savings are still in the pandemic induced growing trend, reaching record levels, while consumer debt continues to plunge. International travel is still off the table for everyone currently and so that discretionary spending continues to go elsewhere. To top it all off the discretionary spend allocated towards hospitality has taken a recent hit also.

[Panda-NZ-]

And ANZ have this chart showing the relationship between confidence survey results and GDP with a 5 month lag

The problem of history not being a good indicator of the future applies.

2020 was rather 'unique' and you can see the issue in that second graph.

[winner69]

Except they have been reducing staff, even from head office, and will likely continue to do so.

But they might have to ‘give’ more of profits to staff rather than giving them all for shareholders

[winner69]

I Reckon retail opens up in Auckland / Waikato this week

Big rush to Red Sheds, NL and T7

No worries now as massive catch up begins

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Dividend secured, as well as a healthy December quarter.

Auckland retail opens next Tuesday (November 9th) - Waikato retail opens tomorrow (Nov 2nd)

[Waltzing]

central waikato perhaps level 2 next week or 2.5 or something...

that and the dividend might stop a 3.80..but 3.50 a rebuy.