WHS - Warehouse Group

[LaserEyeKiwi]

central waikato perhaps level 2 next week or 2.5 or something...

that and the dividend might stop a 3.80..but 3.50 a rebuy.

Waikato retail reopens tomorrow, Auckland next week. That’s all i really care about to be honest. Theres not really much difference in economic activity between Level 3 Step 2 vs. Level 2 except for restaurants/bars/cinemas remain closed (or takeaway only).

[winner69]

So we are told that there is no additional risk from L3 stage 2 but Auckland can't move now .... nonsense

[Beagle]

Dividend secured, as well as a healthy December quarter.

Auckland retail opens next Tuesday (November 9th) - Waikato retail opens tomorrow (Nov 2nd)

You're probably right BUT its clear the companies cash positioned has been materially weakened by the longest lockdown ever in the Auckland region and the directors curious decision not to take Covid support. A further ~$60m coming out of cash reserves will weaken their financial position even further.

[Rawz]

Looking forward to that big fat juicy dividend :p

[Beagle]

Looking forward to that big fat juicy dividend :p

What happens to the share price after it trades ex dividend could be interesting. Will the share price recover the dividend paid or are we in for a much slower recovery process than normal ?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What happens to the share price after it trades ex dividend could be interesting. Will the share price recover the dividend paid or are we in for a much slower recovery process than normal ?

I would be happy with a depressed share price until I have actually received the dividend in my brokerage account and have had the chance to reinvest in more shares.

[Panda-NZ-]

Good call. PE for whs is still rather low.

[Panda-NZ-]

Almost no debt with positive NET assets, with credit to draw on = many dividends at today's level can be afforded.

[Beagle]

Good call. PE for whs is still rather low.

It was super low when the share price was $3.30 and the company was looking at over $170m net profit.
Now the share price is around $4 and consensus for the current year is $126m and long term interest rates have moved up very sharply I would argue the PE is about right for a company with a modest projected growth rate. (average broker forecast eps is 37 cps in FY22 and taking it all the way out to FY24 to grow to 40 cps).

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-lifeline-auckland-retailers-set-to-reopen-next-week-but-face-a-long-recovery/W6S3P6TP4OZPF3AK2E2RNFPA3E/

Regarding future dividends their target is not less than 70% of earnings so 70% of 37 cps suggests dividends of about (37 x 0.7) = ~ 26cps in FY22, well down on those enjoyed in the last year. Fair value with modest growth prospects is my assessment. It was very cheap at $3.30.

26 cps fully imputed = 36.11 cps gross = 9% gross so that should keep dividend hounds happy but I prefer HLG prospects and think their slightly higher metrics does not encapsulate their significantly superior growth prospects with Glassons properly or their vastly superior online and distribution capabilities. I foresee really good things happening for HLG over the next few years.

[DonkeyKong]

Dividend secured, as well as a healthy December quarter.

Auckland retail opens next Tuesday (November 9th) - Waikato retail opens tomorrow (Nov 2nd)

Where are you seeing the dividend is confirmed? I don’t see any announcements

[Panda-NZ-]

26 cps fully imputed = 36.11 cps gross = 9% gross so that should keep dividend hounds happy but I prefer HLG prospects and think their slightly higher metrics does not encapsulate their significantly superior growth prospects with Glassons properly or their vastly superior online and distribution capabilities. I foresee really good things happening for HLG over the next few years.

NZ and Aussies population is growing older, not younger.

The underlying HLG demographic is small and having a hard time paying rents/loans.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Picked up another 10,000 as a swing trade this afternoon. Should test the $4.25 highs just before ex div in my opinion.

I'll be helping the WHS post lockdown bounce back (and spending my dividend early) as I'm in the market for a new pair of jandals.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Where are you seeing the dividend is confirmed? I don’t see any announcements


well the dividend was already “confirmed” when it was announced at earnings. It just had a loosely worded note that it assumed most of the country would be at level 2 at end of October. In practice that meant retail being open in most of the country, and with todays government announcement regarding Waikato and Auckland moving to level 3 step 2, ALL of the country will have retail open next week - so the odds that warehouse cancels the dividend now are very unlikely.

[Waltzing]

" 36.11 cps gross = 9% "

and if they do some how stream line the system... could be more.

In which case the share price should be a lot higher... IF they manage it.

The One News team wheeled out a clinical psych this evening. It was like hand holding for the poor locked auckland. Wonder what the grandparents would have though of it. After all only ever heard how the Blitz was a great experience.

im sure people will recover very quickly from the shock of the war zone auckland.

They will be shopping before they know it...now whats on the list for wednesday afternoon.

In a years time they wont even remember it unlike your grandparents bombed to bits in london blitz.

[DonkeyKong]

well the dividend was already “confirmed” when it was announced at earnings. It just had a loosely worded note that it assumed most of the country would be at level 2 at end of October. In practice that meant retail being open in most of the country, and with todays government announcement regarding Waikato and Auckland moving to level 3 step 2, ALL of the country will have retail open next week - so the odds that warehouse cancels the dividend now are very unlikely.

Because of the note. I was expecting they’d give an additional announcement around about now. But maybe they won’t

[mcdongle]

With the amount of empty shelves in our local Warehouse and chatting to some staff about it. Do they have enough products to sell and make money?

[Beagle]

" 36.11 cps gross = 9% "

and if they do some how stream line the system... could be more.

In which case the share price should be a lot higher... IF they manage it.

The One News team wheeled out a clinical psych this evening. It was like hand holding for the poor locked auckland. Wonder what the grandparents would have though of it. After all only ever heard how the Blitz was a great experience.

im sure people will recover very quickly from the shock of the war zone auckland.

They will be shopping before they know it...now whats on the list for wednesday afternoon.

In a years time they wont even remember it unlike your grandparents bombed to bits in london blitz.

I don't think they will do $126m. Analyst's have had that forecast since a couple of days after the annual result and at that time nobody was expecting the longest lockdown in history. I think the bounce-back will be a lot slower and shallower than last time. Aucklanders will not forget this prison sentence for many years. I think the case numbers are going to be massively problematic and I'm not the only one
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/easing-of-auckland-restrictions-a-fine-balancing-act-but-covid-19-modeller-has-warning/ar-AAQcvzo?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
Young people will not be deterred by the risks but we all know there's another retailer that targets that demographic a lot better.

[winner69]

With the amount of empty shelves in our local Warehouse and chatting to some staff about it. Do they have enough products to sell and make money?

Headlines a few weeks ago -

Warehouse boss not concerned about Christmas

So no worries

[BlackPeter]

I don't think they will do $126m. Analyst's have had that forecast since a couple of days after the annual result and at that time nobody was expecting the longest lockdown in history. I think the bounce-back will be a lot slower and shallower than last time. Aucklanders will not forget this prison sentence for many years.

I get the sentiment, but maybe it was to their own best ... just wondering, whether overflooded ICU's and long rows of mass graves would have been more palatable? Anyway - we still might get there .... but this is a different thread.

Back to WHS - as long as they manage to source product I am sure that they (and any of the other retailers with functioning supply chains) will have a stellar pre Christmas sales period with margins to dream of. More interesting will be how they stand their man in the years to come. High prices lead to increased competition, which ultimately lowers prices ... and then it will show who is still able to supply good enough product at a low enough price. I recon the WHS might still shine in that period. Established supplier relationships and a well oiled supply chain will be key.

[winner69]

Both beagle and Peter could be on to it. Came across this today -

History will say that pandemic-related supply chain issues not only hid a collapse in demand, they drove a collapse in demand due to higher prices. We are on the cusp of the largest and fastest demand collapse in U.S. history.

And collapse in consumer confidence is often an early indicator

Beagle me old mate …WHS might struggle to even do $100m in a couple of years.

[cymonger]

Brought to you by the same people who told you the dividend will be canceled.

Please treat the scaremongering on this thread with a grain of salt. Comparing American retail to New Zealand retail is just silly. Amazon is utterly ubiquitous in America life, and people now have a completely different way of shopping there.

New Zealand on the other hand has very old-fashioned loyalty to the major brands that is deeply integrated into their spending habits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE GOING OVERSEAS FOR CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND IS NO LONGER LEAVING THE COUNTRY.

Unemployment is at the lowest level since 2008. Do you really think people are just going to bury this money under the mattress? Put it in their retirement plan? Give me a break. A recent study showed 40% of Kiwis have less than $1000 saved for retirement. Why do you think that is? People love to spend their money. Much like people get "hangry" (hungry plus angry), people are dying for some retail therapy right now.

I don't love the Warehouse as a long-term hold. As others have pointed out, New Zealand will eventually embrace a digital model like Amazon which made companies like Sears in the states obsolete. We're nowhere near that yet though.

This is "war is over" times. People in Auckland are already largely disregarding Covid protocols. Sure there will be plenty of ongoing challenges with Covid, but people want to live their lives and live with Covid like they are in virtually every other country of the world right now.

Personally, I'm betting on it. Please remember a lot of people on here placed their bets that the dividend wasn't happening.

They were wrong. Dead wrong.

[Rawz]

Brought to you by the same people who told you the dividend will be canceled.

Please treat the scaremongering on this thread with a grain of salt. Comparing American retail to New Zealand retail is just silly. Amazon is utterly ubiquitous in America life, and people now have a completely different way of shopping there.

New Zealand on the other hand has very old-fashioned loyalty to the major brands that is deeply integrated into their spending habits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE GOING OVERSEAS FOR CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND IS NO LONGER LEAVING THE COUNTRY.

Unemployment is at the lowest level since 2008. Do you really think people are just going to bury this money under the mattress? Put it in their retirement plan? Give me a break. A recent study showed 40% of Kiwis have less than $1000 saved for retirement. Why do you think that is? People love to spend their money. Much like people get "hangry" (hungry plus angry), people are dying for some retail therapy right now.

I don't love the Warehouse as a long-term hold. As others have pointed out, New Zealand will eventually embrace a digital model like Amazon which made companies like Sears in the states obsolete. We're nowhere near that yet though.

This is "war is over" times. People in Auckland are already largely disregarding Covid protocols. Sure there will be plenty of ongoing challenges with Covid, but people want to live their lives and live with Covid like they are in virtually every other country of the world right now.

Personally, I'm betting on it. Please remember a lot of people on here placed their bets that the dividend wasn't happening.

They were wrong. Dead wrong.

Excellent post. I was pondering what W69 posted and gathering my thoughts for a post but you have said everything on my mind.

Bears vs the Bulls I guess.

Waltzingman posting about whs dropping to $3.70's- $3.80s sounds just like his call on MHJ dropping back to below $0.80 not so long ago. Next thing we above $1.00...

[Panda-NZ-]

Beagle me old mate …WHS might struggle to even do $100m in a couple of years.

Then consumers get to enjoy inflation of 3-5% per year. There's an opportunity cost of not spending up large today.

[Waltzing]

"Waltzingman posting about whs dropping to $3.70's- $3.80s "

wishful thinking!!! ... still holding 50% WHS of original holdings in one entity.

Also posted above that if they can stream line systems thne perhaps profits will increase although freight costs must be reducing margins for all retailers.

Also believe that people will return to normal life as quickly as they can and many people were out today on polluting Jet Skis and boats enjoying spring weather on central north island lakes.

will be interesting to see if malls in hamilton are busy tomorrow.

[mcdongle]

Headlines a few weeks ago -

Warehouse boss not concerned about Christmas

So no worries

Well the Mrs went in to buy the grandchildren some Christmas gifts but they didnt have what she wanted...So maybe he should be concerned

[Muse]

Craigs just released a 30 page report on the WHS - and downgraded their TP to 3.70…

[winner69]

Craigs just released a 30 page report on the WHS - and downgraded their TP to 3.70…

WOW ....what was it before?

Maybe guru analysts changing their targets to get back in line with the share price

They seem to follow it up and down ....spooky eh

[Muse]

Yeah analysts are funny.
It was 4 bucks before

[bull....]

a lot of people thinking retail spending will decline a little next yr due to rising int rates and general cost of living increases

[couta1]

WOW ....what was it before?

Maybe guru analysts changing their targets to get back in line with the share price

They seem to follow it up and down ....spooky eh The old reliable coin toss would be more trustworthy.

[Waltzing]

"TP to 3.70"

must consider div to be cut next year then and by a lot.

comparing the numbers between HLG, BRIS and WHS the market just thinks its a slow boat from china junk warehouse product sales.

MR B must have sent them over a note to rework their numbers.

Its the retail stock they just dont love.

Maybe they just want to BUY it at 3.70.

So much for 4.25 before X DIV then.

Sell NOW!

[Beagle]

As usual they just follow the dog who sniffed this out as a sell weeks ago.

[Muse]

As usual they just follow the dog who sniffed this out as a sell weeks ago.

“Good dog”

“Roof!”

[Panda-NZ-]

The Beagle approved OCA not doing so well, HLG had a dip to 6.99 today also.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Read the Craig’s report. Amateur hour. Has some blatantly incorrect factual information in it in parts.

The standard of “analyst” reports in New Zealand is atrocious.

[Beagle]

Beagle approved OCA not doing so well, HLG had a dip to 6.99 today also.

Paid on average 70 cents April / May 2020 so OCA going well for me.
HLG cost me $4 to get back in last August after selling at close to $7 prior to Covid.
Going well if you know when to start and stop the hunt :D
HLG my preferred retailer, strong growth to come in the years ahead but anyone looking for a really quick sugar rush shouldn't bother themselves with it. OCA will also take quite a while to hit its straps from here.

[winner69]

Read the Craig’s report. Amateur hour. Has some blatantly incorrect factual information in it in parts.

The standard of “analyst” reports in New Zealand is atrocious.


…and some of their clients might be selling

[Panda-NZ-]

…and some of their clients might be selling

The banks come heartily recommended even though fintech is making them obselete and uncompetitive.

[Muse]

Read the Craig’s report. Amateur hour. Has some blatantly incorrect factual information in it in parts.

The standard of “analyst” reports in New Zealand is atrocious.

What caught your eye?

[Rawz]

Kinda goes against management thinking when they were buying shares on market around $4.10..

[Waltzing]

They must know something CRGS dont..or they are stupid..

they must think the margins will hold and believe the increase in NPAT while it may decline from these levels is not going to go back to 2019 levels.

Div wont be cut now and imagine if it sells off to 3.55!!!

Come on winner would you back up the truck.. or only the EV scooter.

[dreamcatcher]

Was WHS ever a serious LT hold or simply a quick Pump-an-Dump for most ?

Disc never held

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Was WHS ever a serious LT hold or simply a quick Pump-an-Dump for most ?

Disc never held

My personal opinion is that retail is very rarely a genuine long term hold. Playing the retail cycles can be extremely profitable (just like the airline cycles). I believe retail is still a good place to be for the near future.

[winner69]

Was WHS ever a serious LT hold or simply a quick Pump-an-Dump for most ?

Disc never held

Good question dreamcatcher ...so I updated some thing I did last year

Table shows annual returns including dividends of holding WHS over many different time periods (assuming one bought July each year)

Reads like - Bought July 2006 at $4.74 - 1 year return was 31.8%, if still holding after 5 years return was 1.5% pa and if still holding July 21 (15 years) return has been 2.4%

Red cells negative returns, yellow cells hardly worth the effort <5%pa returns and green cells returns >5% pa

Not many green cells eh

Not many times when buying and holding for multi years has seen above market returns

One thing that stands out ...buying when share price is high is not a good strategy if one is a buy and hold investor. Today could be one of those times. We love stocks that go up fast like a rocket......especially when it is rare event. Is this toime different in that WHS share price will continue to $5 and then $6 and the $7 ......

So the answer to tour question is that over many years WHS has rarely been a serious LT hold andas such probably a pump 'n dump for most.

I would hazard a guess many on ST who hold WHS now won't be holding in a year or two.

Interesting eh

[dreamcatcher]

Many thanks W69 & JTH for your replies, my thoughts were similar.

I do hold HLG cost $4.30.......

[cymonger]

When an analyst likes a stock ST likes (SEE!! upgrades come in threes. The financial guys are finally catching up to this baby, etc.)

When the analysts get it wrong- ST (Might as well flip a coin. These guys get it wrong all the time. Terrible history with those guys).


Confirmation bias at its finest. These are the same dweebs who analyzed the New Zealand housing market a year and a half ago and told us the whole thing was going to come crashing down.

No one knows. I remember reading a very eloquent post from Beagle just a few months ago about how he was shopping at Warehouse and had a "Moses and the burning bush" moment about how this was the stock he just HAD to be invested in. Was he wrong then or wrong now? Or did the playing field change so drastically in a couple months his assessment was no longer relevant? And if so, how good is TODAY"S analysis?

How quickly the opinions of "experts" change...

[Waltzing]

The hunting Beagle... tone deaf too calls to come home... stubborn... always hunting out food even when they have had their fill..

If there is not enough food on this trail they will be off looking for MORE somewhere else.

Not really a bob (bone) each way sort of dog...


https://www.rover.com/blog/beagle-personality/

[Beagle]

The hunting Beagle... tone deaf too calls to come home... stubborn... always hunting out food even when they have had their fill..

If there is not enough food on this trail they will be off looking for MORE somewhere else.

Not really a bob (bone) each way sort of dog...
https://www.rover.com/blog/beagle-personality/
Shouldn't really be kept as a pet. A naughty little dog, prone to disobedience and slinking off, obsessed by food whether they're hungry or not...saw that in the description of the breed someone a while back lol. Mirrors exactly the behavior of our fondly remembered Beagle, Kelly. She was a shocker, turn your back for a minute and your dinner disappeared like magic especially if it was Chinese takeaways lol
https://dogcare.dailypuppy.com/behavior-traits-beagle-4278.html The allure of pursuing a fascinating scent is so intense for beagles that it often leads them to become selectively deaf -- simply unresponsive to human direction when they're in scenting mode".
Its been a slow day on the market so I will humour you with two of Kelly's most memorable stunts. One time I came back from a business trip with a pack of Roses Chocolates in the bottom of my suitcase. She managed to unzip the suitcase with her teeth, root through the suitcase to the bottom, chew through the Roses box to open them and undid all the wrappers with her teeth and claws and ATE THE LOT ! She looked pretty sick after that lol

Another time she was in the lounge with my wife which is closed off with double doors. Down the hallway is our bedroom and the door to that was closed. I opened a packet of toffee pops to have a few. Not more than 10 seconds later she was scratching at the door. She smelled them through the closed bedroom door, down the hallway and through the double doors to the lounge about 20 meters away ! Chocolate is no good for dogs so we never gave her any but that didn't stop her asking !!

cmonger. Its not that difficult to understand why the trail has gone cold. 3-4 months ago they were $3.30, the whole country was in level 1 and humming along nicely and we were looking at $170m+ earnings for 50 cps and a forward PE of just 6.6. Its was "looney tunes" value, (and very loudly called and barked as exactly that so even the deaf could hear), and even a lame three legged cancer ridden pig dog should have picked up the scent and run with it as fast as it could.

Fast forward 3-4 months and how things have changed. With the almost endless lockdown we've seen analysts trim their expectations to $126m for FY22, eps of just 37 cps forecast so the PE has expanded to ~ 11. Further, the 10 Year Govt stock has risen 100 basis points which of itself should trim about 1 PE off the forward metrics and a PE of 11 is actually fully priced for a company with very modest growth prospects. Adjusting for the far higher interest rates now prevailing the metrics on the WHS have nearly in effect doubled from where they were just a few months ago !

You don't need a long range super sniffer Beagle nose to tell you the attractiveness has changed quite substantially and the relative value of the stock now compared to how it was a few months ago is vastly different.

For the sake of complete clarity this hound can confirm that all easily hunt-able rabbits have been caught and either eaten or stockpiled ;) Craigs who were hot on my heels in this pursuit have just confirmed after hanging round for a few more weeks after I called off the hunt that any remaining rabbits have scattered far and wide and after the next dividend feed (where previously caught stockpiled rabbits are cooked and served to shareholders), there's slim pickings going forward.

The scary thing is after a good sniff around I'm not picking up the scent of any new richly stocked hunting grounds easily attainable elsewhere at this point. Just as well I am very well fed and very full. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=WcT8hBpY&id=4D646EB1913B854388C50A3BEE4919ABFDC7279D&thid=OIP.WcT8hBpYdaVct0mFEuxPvwHaE7&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fbeagleowner.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f11%2ffat-beagle-1.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.59c 4fc841a5875a55cb7498512ec4fbf%3frik%3dnSfH%252fasZ Se47Cg%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=417&expw=626&q=picture+of+fat+beagle&simid=608054673634037869&FORM=IRPRST&ck=1BE8E33B967FFE6E9B1450D313F75EE9&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0 Sometimes you just need to rest and count the rabbit's that are stockpiled :D

[Panda-NZ-]

Retailers do decently with higher interest rates.

Particularly the ones with no debt as is the case here.

Trading post-div will be a large shock though and probably determine where it goes next.

[winner69]

Red Shed Hamilton on the news tonight …..stuff going out by the trolley load …and the spokesperson seemed rather pleased how busy they were

The massive retail catchup up North underway.

[Waltzing]

well be diversified across the sector and you should be all fluffy ducks....:eek2:

over the yard arm .. Gin and Tonic time... oh no ZOOM later better only have a small one...lemons anyone.

It appears Auckland is now to become a separate state over summer with a travel border with time slots to be booked.

Its a total ring fencing of auckland that will mean normal summer tourism as per 2020,21 will not now occur.

Much needed tourism dollars will now not flow across the country and retail will be hit if this goes ahead.

Who ever the government is protecting its not business..

Auckland is now Stalag 13!!! under the control of Colonel Klink! Health minister Little and other

[Waltzing]

How many of you LORDS of DOGTOWN thought you would not be able to travel out of auckland this summer by Car even though your DOUBLE JABBED!!!

Tourism and seas side towns around the central north island will not have those dollars in the tills this summer!

Locals will love it but retail sales could take a hit.

Is your New summer camper van now parked up on its CHOCKS!

You might as well book Airline local or Overseas Travel for Xmas and the rest of summer.

Flying is your NEW option for Travel ! It CHOCKS away AIR NZ and AUS Q Kanga. (OSCA KANGA).

Well who's waging the dog tails now!

Dont you just love it!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25-8el1FLzo

[winner69]

Paymark reckons when Auckland retail stores are allowed to reopen it "looks poised for a deluge of pre-Christmas spending in November".

Deluge sounds better than massive


All good for TWG stores

[Waltzing]

They might be confused unable to understand from recent communications what's IN STORE for them over xmas... :eek2:

[Beagle]

Playing around with new avatar

[Waltzing]

Yes does seem to add up....new product line of beagle edible bones coming soon to a pet food store near you.

Im sure no one from the Bumbling Hive wanted to talk today with Hoskins about whats in store for Auckland at Xmas...

Those overhead gantries on motorways would have come into play nicely about now.

Technology... its what's you need for Xmas.

They better set something up for Roll Lights Cameras Action!

Wonder if any ministers know how to use the camera apps on their smart phones?

Its pull a rabbit out of the hat time very soon...

[cymonger]

Here's some more sums

Predictions-

1. The WHG won't be paying the upcoming dividend. Covid conditions have simply made this untenable.
2. It's just a matter of time before Covid shuts down the whole country.
3. ICU's will be overturn and our lack of ventilators will crush our medical system.
4. It's different this time. People won't be leaning into retail like they did before.

4-0=0

[iceman]

Here's some more sums

Predictions-

1. The WHG won't be paying the upcoming dividend. Covid conditions have simply made this untenable.
2. It's just a matter of time before Covid shuts down the whole country.
3. ICU's will be overturn and our lack of ventilators will crush our medical system.
4. It's different this time. People won't be leaning into retail like they did before.

4-0=0



Nothing like a positive start to the day with interesting maths :-) :-)

[BlackPeter]

Here's some more sums

Predictions-

1. The WHG won't be paying the upcoming dividend. Covid conditions have simply made this untenable.
2. It's just a matter of time before Covid shuts down the whole country.
3. ICU's will be overturn and our lack of ventilators will crush our medical system.
4. It's different this time. People won't be leaning into retail like they did before.

4-0=0



Pretty bleak view.

While I agree that Covid is likely to spread and kill thanks to some selfish antivaxxing egos, I am not quite sure why you think the retail environment will be shut down on a long term basis.

The antivaxxers will need to crawl back into their caves and the vaccinated people (hey - we are moving now closer to the 90%) will be able to do their Christmas shopping in person. Given that travel is still severely curtailed, retail is the only way to spend ones money.

To be honest - I don't really care (as a holder) whether the Warehouse pays its dividend now or later, but I am pretty confident that this years giving and summer season ends with a nice surprise ... for holders.

[arekaywhy]

Here's some more sums

Predictions-

1. The WHG won't be paying the upcoming dividend. Covid conditions have simply made this untenable.
2. It's just a matter of time before Covid shuts down the whole country.
3. ICU's will be overturn and our lack of ventilators will crush our medical system.
4. It's different this time. People won't be leaning into retail like they did before.

4-0=0



1. Well that sucks
2. uuuh...it's Cindy shutting us down
3. I'd wager that won't happen, and besides, ventilators are the wrong thing to use to treat the effects of wuflu
4. I think you are right there, but the difference might have more to do with folks having less to go around

[Beagle]

I think if they don't pay the dividend that will be a huge bone of contention with investors seeing as staff have already been paid their bonus in August and the directors, management and all staff have been on full pay...why should shareholders be the ones to suffer all the heat ?

I've well and truly picked over my bone of contention with how the numpties in change grandstanded over Covid support so if the cost of making that loud ESG statement is the reason the dividend is cancelled shareholders really will have a bone to pick with the directors.

There's plenty to "chew over" (sorry couldn't resist), regarding the retail recovery rate. What will be interesting is how much money your average WHS customer has after rising rents and massive increases in the cost of fuel and other high inflation. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/vitapet-chicken-wrapped--bone-20cm/R1901578.html

[Ferg]

4-0=0

Is that "fake maths"? :)

[Waltzing]

What's next Ridley..buckle up your booties as it's now Rudder and Stick time fly boy's and Girls...

Their lack of high tech planning has now flown you all into little bit of weather.

As the PHD Bio Chem said on wed day while cycling through hamilton main street. Its going to get a bit Choppy..or if your a fly boy and girls... Dumpy..

Even the russian's have driverless farm machinery software... Software people, it was the answer. That ment bringing in the minds of the best and brightest that private enterprise had to offer in NZ and they are here.

First went training on the bike with a Dutch math PHD software engineer in the early 1980's before they shipped me out to holland.

The country has had these people who have the high tech solutions for a LONG TIME. What have they been thinking? That wellington is far behind the flight line.

With auckland approaching 90% it could well be a case of "LET US OUT OF HERE"

The Jaffas will tell WW (windy wellington) where to fly off to.

[BlackPeter]

Is that "fake maths"? :)

He probably just lives in an alternative universe. Many people do these days :):

[winner69]

He probably just lives in an alternative universe. Many people do these days :):

Reminds me to chase Nick up on how marketing in the metaverse is progressing

Even waltzing man mentioned their lack of high tech planning this morning

[STr]

That would be an interesting conversation - I suspect there is a history of hearing what you "want" to hear that goes on.

From what I have heard around the industry - there is a good technology story to be told but they are working from a large legacy starting point - but less conviction that the story and the ability to deliver meet. The IT staff turn over over the last 3 years has been very high - it has moved from a "employee of choice" to an "employee of convenience" (dependent on which side of the bridge you live) and there is a view in some circles that good people have already moved on. Off shore resourcing (cheap) is preferred, internal focus on how to do things is prioritized over what we deliver, the list goes on.

[Waltzing]

Think of it this way Winner Alpha Gamma Man.

The government in power is playing game of thrones while outside a storm is brewing on the horizon.

Most of these people have been in the palace playing this game for a long time. Think the PM and air apparent Rubber man.

The leader of the Maori party wanted Turk to Take his boat way off shore.

The Technology people playing video games, blasting off rockets and game console controlling there little high speed boats are the same people who could have saved the country from the pending storm that will sweep across the hills and valleys.

The government has only option now unless those gantries can go up and those cameras switched on to track your vehicles.

They needed to up and running yesterday. Your ruling class has been defeated when victory was in site.

Its a defensive game now and WHS will be wondering what to do...

MIQ case victory today is acutely the very symptom of how the government failed everyone and itself and the country.

The Bond Buying Bill will be paid by private enterprise in the next decade.

The smart money will move out to high value currencies and more high tech economies. Just look at the business that now need to send people overseas with no known return dates.

Well better get back to playing with the future.

[alokdhir]

Think of it this way Winner Alpha Gamma Man.

The government in power is playing game of thrones while outside a storm is brewing on the horizon.

Most of these people have been in the palace playing this game for a long time. Think the PM and air apparent Rubber man.

The leader of the Maori party wanted Turk to Take his boat way off shore.

The Technology people playing video games, blasting off rockets and game console controlling there little high speed boats are the same people who could have saved the country from the pending storm that will sweep across the hills and valleys.

The government has only option now unless those gantries can go up and those cameras switched on to track your vehicles.

They needed to up and running yesterday. Your ruling class has been defeated when victory was in site.

Its a defensive game now and WHS will be wondering what to do...

MIQ case victory today is acutely the very symptom of how the government failed everyone and itself and the country.

The Bond Buying Bill will be paid by private enterprise in the next decade.

The smart money will move out to high value currencies and more high tech economies. Just look at the business that now need to send people overseas with no known return dates.

Well better get back to playing with the future.

U keep forgetting the main advantages of NZ ....Free and year long grass thus great dairy industry as just need cows and sheep to turn grass to milk and meat . Hitech can only do business and retail better as mentioned by me long time back against WHS future vs Amazons etc . But hitech cant make real good quality food which will be needed more and more ahead .

Secondly NZ has great tourist views and climate which will eventually be cashed sometime in the future .

Agreed NZ is a low tech economy with soft commodities as main stay but NZ as a country has a very bright future in modern world

WHS will also adapt unless Amazons will eat it up by tech and logistics advantage .

At present NZ is down as people are too restive but very small minority ...we already have higher vaccination rates then many front running countries .

Our Govt is too worried about our vulnerable people which we have many and our fragile healthcare system which is already under heavy duress

[Waltzing]

"U keep forgetting the main advantages of NZ ....Free and year long grass thus great dairy industry as just need cows and sheep"

no used to pproduce economic farm models back in the 90's from standard sets of transaction data from old RT86 and Sol 6 files.

The survey format was published from GOVT back in the late 1980's.

Vac rates are slowing in NZ. You have low scores in recent education statistics.

The failure is the lack of technology on your motorways right now and on your water ways.

High tech maths compression was used back in the 1980's from holland to kick start wholesale chemist inventories in Sport Spartonia NZ.


The PHD bio chem just laughs and says people have no idea people like her are here doing the science and big data helping farming.

The failure isnt the country side it the political side as they appear to be low tech people.

ARG has saved the economy...NZ is a Hanseatic European style global trading economy. Its not a third world pacific island nation as much as certain people in the Bumbling Hive want you to believe.

Now BRIS has produced some good numbers as MR P has highlighted. Can WHS do the same.

[winner69]

PM says they going to boost benefits by hundreds of millions

That's good for Warehouse

[Waltzing]

Well auckland will be all locked up for xmas. That means nothing else to do but local beach, and garden and shop.


Oh yes they will use time slots....you can leave on time only and dont forget to return on time...

JUST IN TIME then for xmas.

[Beagle]

Horrible number today. I for one never accepted the PM's spin that we'd be peaking late November at about 200 per day. Worst case scenario will play out here because Aucklanders have been caged like animals for too long and no longer care about following guidelines. I think the numbers will double every ten days or so and by December we're in very deep doggy doo like NSW and Victoria have been. Already there are calls in the network news tonight for the decision "in principle" to open retail next week to be abandoned.
The cry's will grow louder as the numbers keep going up. Retailers with far better online systems and shops overseas are far better placed.

[winner69]

Horrible number today. I for one never accepted the PM's spin that we'd be peaking late November at about 200 per day. Worst case scenario will play out here because Aucklanders have been caged like animals for too long and no longer care about following guidelines.I think the numbers will double every ten days or so and by December we're in very deep doggy doo like NSW and Victoria have been. Already there are calls in the network news tonight for the decision "in principle" to open retail next week to be abandoned.
The cry's will grow louder as the numbers keep going up. Retailers with far better online systems and shops overseas are far better placed.

Were 100 cases last Wednesday …today 206 ……that’s more than double in 3 days

Hope that rate don’t continue ….your double in 10 days seems better outcome.

[Beagle]

Wednesday was an unusually low day, I think from memory Monday was 162. I had a look back on the graph and generally speaking about 10 days ago it was around 100 or thereabouts. I think its clear this thing is out of control and Spindy's in principle decision to open up retail next week is another issue where they will have little choice but to flip flop.

[winner69]

Wednesday was an unusually low day, I think from memory Monday was 162. I had a look back on the graph and generally speaking about 10 days ago it was around 100 or thereabouts. I think its clear this thing is out of control and Spindy's in principle decision to open up retail next week is another issue where they will have little choice but to flip flop.

Leo Molloy is running Auckland now …..getting hospital to open up whether they allowed to or not (and it’s not civil disobedience)

Bit of a renegade is Leo but this is what needs to happen.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/leo-molloy-the-date-auckland-must-reopen-otherwise-save-the-icu-beds-for-hospo/SRP6LHF3ZTP2XCFJIGDU5LR5PU/

[Nor]

well be diversified across the sector and you should be all fluffy ducks....:eek2:

over the yard arm .. Gin and Tonic time... oh no ZOOM later better only have a small one...lemons anyone.

It appears Auckland is now to become a separate state over summer with a travel border with time slots to be booked.

Its a total ring fencing of auckland that will mean normal summer tourism as per 2020,21 will not now occur.

Much needed tourism dollars will now not flow across the country and retail will be hit if this goes ahead.

Who ever the government is protecting its not business..

Auckland is now Stalag 13!!! under the control of Colonel Klink! Health minister Little and other

Should let the aucklanders go anywhere for Christmas as long as it's northland.

[Nor]

PM says they going to boost benefits by hundreds of millions

That's good for Warehouse

Seems a bit stingy. I thought everything was billions these days.

[Biscuit]

Leo Molloy is running Auckland now …..getting hospital to open up whether they allowed to or not (and it’s not civil disobedience)

Bit of a renegade is Leo but this is what needs to happen.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/leo-molloy-the-date-auckland-must-reopen-otherwise-save-the-icu-beds-for-hospo/SRP6LHF3ZTP2XCFJIGDU5LR5PU/

The government is desperate to get the vaccination numbers up in order to protect the health system before letting go the brakes on Auckland and ultimately the country. Not just for the benefit of the selfish unvaccinated who will fill the ICUs, but for all the people who need cancer treatment, heart operations etc etc. They have played a tough game very well and they will take the brakes off soon enough 90% vaccinated or not.

[THEONE]

If they said months ago they would give every double vaxed person $1000...We would be well over 90% now.

Ultimately be cheaper and better for the economy. ..

[Waltzing]

Anyone got an ideas on how to get Stalag 13 unlocked. Those northern gantries needed rolling out last year.

Imagine the building panic in wellington. As soon as central north island is on the same level as WW will be flying down.

Invited to dinner and table talk is going to be very interesting indeed.

Thinking of tabling the idea of a Coup d'état..

Round up the retired commanders of Armoured...who are all now in influential positions of power and nationwide communications facilities.

Just need some plotters..

That should save the Dividend restored and north island tourism which looks dead as a duck for xmas.

[Beagle]

If they said months ago they would give every double vaxed person $1000...We would be well over 90% now.

Ultimately be cheaper and better for the economy. ..

That hits the nail directly on the head. $5 Billion is chump change to what this is costing them and will continue to cost them as the tail continues to wag the dog.

[Beagle]

Leo Molloy is running Auckland now …..getting hospital to open up whether they allowed to or not (and it’s not civil disobedience)

Bit of a renegade is Leo but this is what needs to happen.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/leo-molloy-the-date-auckland-must-reopen-otherwise-save-the-icu-beds-for-hospo/SRP6LHF3ZTP2XCFJIGDU5LR5PU/

Had a nice walk in the park today. Lots of happy looking dog's wagging their tails. It occurred to me that a dog would look pretty stupid it if rotated around its wagging tail and yet that's exactly what's happening in Auckland. Our lives are being held hostage to the vaccine tail. Those "rocket scientists" who think they know better than the best health experts are wagging the Auckland dog and may end up wagging retailers like WHS.

Anyway...enough of the (probably irrelevant analogy's). WHS is scheduled to update the market with its FY22 first quarter sales on Friday 12th. I expect the numbers will be fairly grim (as lets face it WHS online system is a pretty ugly dog of a thing) and the approx. 2 million who have been in lockdown are probably too shell shocked and war torn to spend much online anyway.

Dividend hounds should make a note of the above date in their diary. If they don't cancel or defer the dividend on that date you're all good and will get your dividend feed. Just remember that's more than $60m leaving WHS bank account that's already weakened by lockdown. The dividend (if you get it) will feel like a great feed but remember there no such thing as a free lunch.

[winner69]

Had a nice walk in the park today. Lots of happy looking dog's wagging their tails. It occurred to me that a dog would look pretty stupid it if rotated around its wagging tail and yet that's exactly what's happening in Auckland. Our lives are being held hostage to the vaccine tail. Those "rocket scientists" who think they know better than the best health experts are wagging the Auckland dog and may end up wagging retailers like WHS.

Anyway...enough of the (probably irrelevant analogy's). WHS is scheduled to update the market with its FY22 first quarter sales on Friday 12th. I expect the numbers will be fairly grim (as lets face it WHS online system is a pretty ugly dog of a thing) and the approx. 2 million who have been in lockdown are probably too shell shocked and war torn to spend much online anyway.

Dividend hounds should make a note of the above date in their diary. If they don't cancel or defer the dividend on that date you're all good and will get your dividend feed. Just remember that's more than $60m leaving WHS bank account that's already weakened by lockdown. The dividend (if you get it) will feel like a great feed but remember there no such thing as a free lunch.

Apparently Jacinda coming to Auckland soon …maybe next week

Beagle ….got your banner ready to tell her what you think of the government.

Don’t forget the mask and social distancing though ..might be thousands there.

[Waltzing]

"costing them"

debt recycled with the bill going to against Future GDP..and business ultimately getting the Tab.

shut down the bumbling hive.... it just too dangerous to let it go on much longer.

Viva la Révolution.

Rotten apples and eggs id say.. Staunch labour voter in auckland said its all insanity and those gantries should have been up last year. Techno engineer and sees no problem installing except its almost to late since the tech would have to come from overseas.

A special flight could have been put on since it would be cheaper divert a cargo plane than lock down auckland.

Private enterprise should have been let in last april to re tech the country. Rabbit and Hat time or rather magic trick and who;s legs get cut off.

could cost share holders a lot of future SP and Div gains...

first vac numbers looking good though and by xmas the border could be gone, saving the government from no confidence vote.

[Beagle]

apparently jacinda coming to auckland soon …maybe next week

beagle ….got your banner ready to tell her what you think of the government.

Don’t forget the mask and social distancing though ..might be thousands there.

PM you that.

[Playa]

Had a nice walk in the park today. Lots of happy looking dog's wagging their tails. It occurred to me that a dog would look pretty stupid it if rotated around its wagging tail and yet that's exactly what's happening in Auckland. Our lives are being held hostage to the vaccine tail. Those "rocket scientists" who think they know better than the best health experts are wagging the Auckland dog and may end up wagging retailers like WHS.

Anyway...enough of the (probably irrelevant analogy's). WHS is scheduled to update the market with its FY22 first quarter sales on Friday 12th. I expect the numbers will be fairly grim (as lets face it WHS online system is a pretty ugly dog of a thing) and the approx. 2 million who have been in lockdown are probably too shell shocked and war torn to spend much online anyway.

Dividend hounds should make a note of the above date in their diary. If they don't cancel or defer the dividend on that date you're all good and will get your dividend feed. Just remember that's more than $60m leaving WHS bank account that's already weakened by lockdown. The dividend (if you get it) will feel like a great feed but remember there no such thing as a free lunch.

It's incredible that a fully vaccinated Aucklander, with a negative 3 day test can't leave the city today. A foreigner flying in from overseas has more rights and more freedom to get to more places in NZ at the moment than an Aucklander does, something is not right here.

[Beagle]

It's incredible that a fully vaccinated Aucklander, with a negative 3 day test can't leave the city today. A foreigner flying in from overseas has more rights and more freedom to get to more places in NZ at the moment than an Aucklander does, something is not right here.

Yes the team of 2 million who have been doing ALL the hard work are well and truly due for a break !

Aucklanders are sick of being treated like caged animals !
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-delta-outbreak-tourism-boss-tells-jacinda-ardern-the-country-is-caught-in-the-headlights/X6HMAJIPIDLWRLWSL3LXEPGUZY/

[couta1]

Yes the team of 2 million who have been doing ALL the hard work are well and truly due for a break !

Aucklanders are sick of being treated like caged animals !
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-delta-outbreak-tourism-boss-tells-jacinda-ardern-the-country-is-caught-in-the-headlights/X6HMAJIPIDLWRLWSL3LXEPGUZY/ Cindy or Eve, take your pick. Lol

[Panda-NZ-]

Dividend hounds should make a note of the above date in their diary. If they don't cancel or defer the dividend on that date you're all good and will get your dividend feed. Just remember that's more than $60m leaving WHS bank account that's already weakened by lockdown. The dividend (if you get it) will feel like a great feed but remember there no such thing as a free lunch.

ESG enterprises are worth more these days.

Maybe they can get it from inflating the "goodwill" numbers .

[winner69]

Divie saved …..got a new SUSTAINABILITY LOAN to pay it if they need a bit of extra cash

Good for share price as insto and fund managers love investing in these companies committed to ESG

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-signs-70-million-sustainability-linked-loan-with-westpac-nz/WTF5LA4WHWSMUT32XO3YBFLQZE/

Besides normal sustainability stuff it ‘also has a target to achieve 50 per cent of women in its senior leadership roles and pay equality across all genders.’

[winner69]

Rod Duke says post lock rebound this time is going to be huge and surpass last years rebound

If Briscoes can do it so will WHS …and when Rod runs out stuff to sell even more will come to WHS with their no worries high stock levels :t_up:

[Waltzing]

Oh dear, they just borrowed to pay the dividend...That barking on the hunt is the sound of "told you so".. Should have taken the govt sub after all now it going to cost the shareholders to get paid a dividend.

Dont know about people running for the in store experience.

You could get a free dose of something else from an unhealthy person.

[Rawz]

Lending faculties are there to smooth cashflows.

After xmas the coffers will be overflowing again. The revenge spend is going to be huge.

[Biscuit]

......If Briscoes can do it so will WHS …and when Rod runs out stuff to sell even more will come to WHS with their no worries high stock levels :t_up:

Is it WHS's best hope that they can emulate Briscoes and nap some of their customers when the stock runs out?

[Sideshow Bob]

Is it WHS's best hope that they can emulate Briscoes and nap some of their customers when the stock runs out?

Nah Rod is too smart for that - they've increased their stock 20% to ensure they don't run out!!

[Waltzing]

Anyone thinking of a free for all shopping and partying summer then.

Covid 19 Delta outbreak: DHBs, funeral homes buy refrigerated containers for Covid-19 bodies - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-dhbs-funeral-homes-buy-refrigerated-containers-for-covid-19-bodies/H2ZKQIMY6SR6LW7GEMSJSYBNEA/)

[Rawz]

Anyone thinking of a free for all shopping and partying summer then.

Covid 19 Delta outbreak: DHBs, funeral homes buy refrigerated containers for Covid-19 bodies - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-dhbs-funeral-homes-buy-refrigerated-containers-for-covid-19-bodies/H2ZKQIMY6SR6LW7GEMSJSYBNEA/)

Yes, the people are ready to live with it. Like the rest of the world.

There are risks in a lot of things we do in life. If you want to minimize your covid risk stay home, order countdown online food delivery, order everything online actually. It can be done.

But the majority of us are double jabbed and want to get on with it.

[Waltzing]

Retail is a BUY then. Special DIV's after next 6 months.

[Beagle]

Yes, the people are ready to live with it. Like the rest of the world.

There are risks in a lot of things we do in life. If you want to minimize your covid risk stay home, order countdown online food delivery, order everything online actually. It can be done.

But the majority of us are double jabbed and want to get on with it.

Do you live in Auckland ?

[Rawz]

Do you live in Auckland ?

Yes. Going crazy along with all the other prisoners.

[Waltzing]

"prisoners."

stalag 13.. your out soon.. or the government is out... your trapped she says.. but she is also trapped.

trapped if she does, trapped if she doesnt.

Backs against the wall.

But RAW is right, they will SHOP. One way or another and they will party.

BUY retail on the dips.

[winner69]

Did I hear somebody say a SPECIAL DIVIDEND early next year ....as they will awash with cash after this rebound

That's on top of the soon to be paid one of course

[winner69]

Oh dear Stephen .... hope you not letting the cat ou of the bag from what he's heard from his mates ..... obviously just speculation on his part :)

The Warehouse Group (“the Group”) notes the article in the New Zealand Herald this morning, “Shopping with Covid, Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall and Briscoes boss Rod Duke expect boom time ahead”. The comments Sir Stephen Tindall makes on the Group's current and future trading are his opinion and not based on any non-public information. The Group will be releasing its first quarter sales update this Friday, 12 November.

[Beagle]

Yes. Going crazy along with all the other prisoners.

I was so bored yesterday I resorted to cleaning Mrs Beagle's car for her. This confirms I've gone nuts :lol:

Personally speaking I am not sure people are ready to rip with retail. A lot will depend on the daily Covid numbers and if they start heading up into the stratosphere then people's enthusiasm to shop will be tempered.

WHS signs sustainability linked loan with Westpac https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warehouse-signs-70-million-sustainability-linked-loan-with-westpac-nz/WTF5LA4WHWSMUT32XO3YBFLQZE/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338

Some obvious questions present. Why do they need a loan with the company having a large cash balance as at the last report date of $160m ?
As at balance date women represented just on 44% of the team in senior leadership positions.
This loan imposes a condition (with increased interest rate as a penalty) that they get this up to 50% as well as pay parity.
I find this sort of targeted gender neutrality concerning as it inevitably involves promoting people on the basis of gender rather than merit to achieve artificially contrived ESG targets.

I think WHS directors and management have taken the ESG ball and run with it to far.

[see weed]

I was so bored yesterday I resorted to cleaning Mrs Beagle's car for her. This confirms I've gone nuts :lol:

Personally speaking I am not sure people are ready to rip with retail. A lot will depend on the daily Covid numbers and if they start heading up into the stratosphere then people's enthusiasm to shop will be tempered.
Don't know about you, but I'll be dancing in the streets. I got a big shopping list. My only outlet the last couple of months was supermarkets and they don't sell the clothes I want. But it was very entertaining going to supermarket having danced with one of the packer girls in the aisle by the yoghurt late one night:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Don't know about you, but I'll be dancing in the streets. I got a big shopping list. My only outlet the last couple of months was supermarkets and they don't sell the clothes I want. But it was very entertaining going to supermarket having danced with one of the packer girls in the aisle by the yoghurt late one night:t_up:.

Agree there will be an initial, OMG I am so pleased to get some retail therapy, because lets face it we've all got a serious dose of cabin (kennel in my case) fever but what about if we start hitting say 500 Covid cases a day or even more :eek2:

[Rawz]

Agree there will be an initial, OMG I am so pleased to get some retail therapy, because lets face it we've all got a serious dose of cabin (kennel in my case) fever but what about if we start hitting say 500 Covid cases a day or even more :eek2:

It will go over that, Beagle. 1000 a day I reckon. Mentally prepare for it then it wont be such a shock

I reckon the younger generations will still get out and hit the shops. Mask up. Good dose of she'll be right attitude along with that mask..

Thats what I am seeing in my wider circle of friends. Everyone is keen for it. Warmer weather and sun is pumping us up.

Have friends in London that have had covid. Sick for a week then back to the pub. All good.

Also think the WHS core customer group dont care much for covid.

[see weed]

Agree there will be an initial, OMG I am so pleased to get some retail therapy, because lets face it we've all got a serious dose of cabin (kennel in my case) fever but what about if we start hitting say 500 Covid cases a day or even more :eek2:
Have faith Beagle. When your times up it is up. The Lord only knows when your time is up whether it be Covid or Cancer or whatever. So get out there and go crazy and buy buy buy and be high high high and dance in the streets:)

[Beagle]

It will go over that, Beagle. 1000 a day I reckon. Mentally prepare for it then it wont be such a shock

I reckon the younger generations will still get out and hit the shops. Mask up. Good dose of she'll be right attitude along with that mask..

Thats what I am seeing in my wider circle of friends. Everyone is keen for it. Warmer weather and sun is pumping us up.

Have friends in London that have had covid. Sick for a week then back to the pub. All good.

Also think the WHS core customer group dont care much for covid.

I agree about mentally preparing for a thousand or more. The cases numbers in NSW and Victoria suggest we could be heading there. I am not for one minute "buying" Cindy's spin that we will peak at around 200 cases a day.

Agreed but HLG target this younger age demographic group a lot better than WHS. Fat old dogs are more likely to continue staying close to home.

Its true see weed that you never know what the future holds but taking bold risks does nothing to help one's longevity chances !

[ratkin]

Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall and
Briscoes boss Rod Duke expect boom time ahead".

Literally shop till you drop

[Habits]

Hillcrest Hamilton whs last night was steady pace and customers queuing for the checkouts.... one week after the level change

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Agree there will be an initial, OMG I am so pleased to get some retail therapy, because lets face it we've all got a serious dose of cabin (kennel in my case) fever but what about if we start hitting say 500 Covid cases a day or even more :eek2:

Fortunately we have the experience of literally the rest of the developed world to project how society will respond to covid becoming endemic. The findings are that society adapts quickly to the “new normal”. There are some changes to get used to, but by and large retail spending is back to 2019 levels or higher across the EU, Asia & North America, despite in many areas lower vaccination rates than what New Zealand has already achieved.

Undoubtedly there are a portion of people who will remain voluntarily in a higher state of isolation and will be doing less in-store shopping, but they are in the small minority and will still be spending money on retail via online instead.

[Beagle]

Undoubtedly there are a portion of people who will remain voluntarily in a higher state of isolation and will be doing less in-store shopping, but they are in the small minority and will still be spending money on retail via online instead. Perhaps the risk averse carefully assess what they really want and start making limited in store purchases ?

e.g. There's obviously a lot less risk in one visit to a BMW dealer to buy a new high performance luxury car than 101 visits for lower value less stimulatory retail experiences. If my thinking is any indicator of how it might be in general for baby boomers what you may find is that the boomers who are financially comfortable start spending like there's no tomorrow (because there mightn't be), on luxury high end goods and the basic retailers like WHS get a smaller share of the pie. Just a theory...for what its worth.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I would also add that the danger of dying of Covid to a fully vaccinated person in New Zealand is very small:

- Full vaccination of course drastically reduces the chances of death or hospitalization due to CV, and also the chances of catching CV and spreading it.
- NZ’s high vaccination rate - with the most effective vaccine available - drastically reduces transmission rates and the likelyhood of getting infected in the first place
- On top of the high vaccination rate, widespread adherence to mask wearing, along with the vaccine passport system, will further reduce chances of infection
- Even if a double vaccinated person does catch it, new treatments that have been developed over the last 18 months are available to reduce the risk of hospitalization & death, with the latest treatments reducing risk by almost 90%

If I had to wager, I would be fairly confident in predicting that CV will cause a very small amount of deaths amongst the double vaccinated in New Zealand in 2022 and beyond. Well below the rates of death caused by other diseases and causes of death (Certainly smaller than the road toll, or suicide or homicide).

To me the downsides going forward for the next year will be as follows:

- The unvaccinated will continue to fill hospitals, and will continue to die. This is their own stupid fault. But it has an impact on NZ’s medical system that will be sizable in terms of opportunity cost of elective surgeries.
- The speed of vaccinating children. Even though they have less chance of death, young children will be spreaders while the 5-11yrs vaccination program is yet to begin. I think opening up primary schools before these vaccines are delivered is a mistake.
- Overseas travel will still be off putting to many, especially for the more vulnerable population such as the over 60s, families and immunocompromised. (At least this diverts more discretionary spending to support retail and domestic tourism). On the plus side, NZ’s relatively high vaccination rate and vaccine passport restrictions may well make it a more attractive holiday destination for inbound tourists once they are allowed back in sometime alter in 2022, bringing more revenue into currently suppressed tourist regions.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Perhaps the risk averse carefully assess what they really want and start making limited in store purchases ?

e.g. There's obviously a lot less risk in one visit to a BMW dealer to buy a new high performance luxury car than 101 visits for lower value less stimulatory retail experiences. If my thinking is any indicator of how it might be in general for baby boomers what you may find is that the baby boomers who hold the real wealth start spending like there's no tomorrow (because there mightn't be), on luxury high end goods and the basic retailers like WHS get a smaller share of the pie. Just a theory...for what its worth.

possible. Remember that if that is true then Noel Leeming would be a huge winner in that scenario (like it has been over the last 18 months). I think Noel Leeming should probably get into furniture retailing as well under this scenario, or a separate furniture chain should be on WHS acquisition target list if it isn’t already.

Also I think Warehouse needs to rethink its reliance on 3rd party courier companies. Sure keep using them for everywhere outside the main centers, but for Auckland/Hamilton/Wellington/Christchurch it should definitely get its own delivery network in place, supplemented by 3rd party couriers at peak times.

[couta1]

I would also add that the danger of dying of Covid to a fully vaccinated person in New Zealand is very small:

- Full vaccination of course drastically reduces the chances of death or hospitalization due to CV, and also the chances of catching CV and spreading it.
- NZ’s high vaccination rate - with the most effective vaccine available - drastically reduces transmission rates and the likely hood of getting infected in teh first place
- On top of the high vaccination rate, widespread adherence to mask wearing, along with the vaccine passport system, will further reduce chances of infection
- Even if a double vaccinated person does catch it, new treatments that have been developed over then last 18 months are available to reduce the risk of hospitalization & death, with the latest treatments reducing risk by almost 90%

If I had to wager, I would be fairly confident in predicting that CV will cause a very small amount of deaths amongst the double vaccinated in New Zealand in 2022 and beyond. Well below the rates of death caused by other diseases and causes of death (Certainly smaller than the road toll, or suicide or homicide).

To me the downsides going forward for the next year will be as follows:

- The unvaccinated will continue to fill hospitals, and will continue to die. This is their own stupid fault. But it has an impact on NZ’s medical system that will be sizable in terms of opportunity cost of elective surgeries.
- The speed of vaccinating children. Even though they have less chance of death, young children will be spreaders while the 5-11yrs vaccination program is yet to begin. I think opening up primary schools before these vaccines are delivered is a mistake.
- Overseas travel will still be off putting to many, especially for the more vulnerable population such as the over 60s, families and immunocompromised. (At least this diverts more discretionary spending to support retail and domestic tourism). On the plus side, NZ’s relatively high vaccination rate and vaccine passport restrictions may well make it a more attractive holiday destination for inbound tourists once they are allowed back in sometime alter in 2022, bringing more revenue into currently suppressed tourist regions. Actually the chance of dying from Covid if you are an otherwise healthy individual is very small vaccinated or unvaccinated, how many of the deaths to date have occurred in healthy individuals in NZ, your post is full of blatant scaremongering and doesn't belong on this thread anyway.

[Beagle]

I would also add that the danger of dying of Covid to a fully vaccinated person in New Zealand is very small:

- Full vaccination of course drastically reduces the chances of death or hospitalization due to CV, and also the chances of catching CV and spreading it.
- NZ’s high vaccination rate - with the most effective vaccine available - drastically reduces transmission rates and the likelyhood of getting infected in the first place
- On top of the high vaccination rate, widespread adherence to mask wearing, along with the vaccine passport system, will further reduce chances of infection
- Even if a double vaccinated person does catch it, new treatments that have been developed over the last 18 months are available to reduce the risk of hospitalization & death, with the latest treatments reducing risk by almost 90%

If I had to wager, I would be fairly confident in predicting that CV will cause a very small amount of deaths amongst the double vaccinated in New Zealand in 2022 and beyond. Well below the rates of death caused by other diseases and causes of death (Certainly smaller than the road toll, or suicide or homicide).

To me the downsides going forward for the next year will be as follows:

- The unvaccinated will continue to fill hospitals, and will continue to die. This is their own stupid fault. But it has an impact on NZ’s medical system that will be sizable in terms of opportunity cost of elective surgeries.
- The speed of vaccinating children. Even though they have less chance of death, young children will be spreaders while the 5-11yrs vaccination program is yet to begin. I think opening up primary schools before these vaccines are delivered is a mistake.
- Overseas travel will still be off putting to many, especially for the more vulnerable population such as the over 60s, families and immunocompromised. (At least this diverts more discretionary spending to support retail and domestic tourism). On the plus side, NZ’s relatively high vaccination rate and vaccine passport restrictions may well make it a more attractive holiday destination for inbound tourists once they are allowed back in sometime alter in 2022, bringing more revenue into currently suppressed tourist regions.

I disagree with my friend Couta1 and think this is highly relevant and an excellent post and summary of the situation as it pertains in general to the future of retail in N.Z.

This is a massive train wreck about to unfold but she who says we need to keep on being kind at all costs can't see it.

[arekaywhy]

wow, people, you're more than likely not going to die from the flu, turn Cindy and her minions off

meanwhile, what the hell are they doing signing up to a social justice loan? Anyone got calcs on the downside risk on that own goal?

[Beagle]

wow, people, you're more than likely not going to die from the flu, turn Cindy and her minions off

meanwhile, what the hell are they doing signing up to a social justice loan? Anyone got calcs on the downside risk on that own goal?
Undoubtedly the commercial terms of that loan agreement will be commercially sensitive and not made available to shareholders which leaves them never knowing what the real ESG cost is.

The real worry is why do they need such a loan after acknowledging they had $160.5m cash in the bank (and no debt) a few months ago at balance date ?
A secondary and only slightly less worrisome question is why do they keep on kicking "own ESG goals" like this ? (Repayment of last years wage subsidy cost them more than $60m and likely even more this time around by not taking legitimate Covid support in the first place).
Could it be that Stephen Tindall's legacy culture looms so large over this company that the directors are incapable of independent thought ?
All very well for Stephen Tindall to be making very loud and very expensive ESG statements (which he is entirely free to do with his foundations own money) but the lack of a commercial approach within WHS itself that puts shareholders rights as front and central is something I am not comfortable with.

Really their approach with all things ESG is getting uncomfortably close to the radical approach Synlait took, (look at how badly that's worked out for shareholders there), when they placed the environment and people on exactly the same level as shareholders. Once companies get close to those extremes and forget that their primary responsibility is to their real owners (the shareholders,) its time to get out.

Fair metrics for WHS is a forward PE of about 10 in normal circumstances = $3.70, (I agree with Craigs there) but with this companies ever increasingly radical ESG approach maybe its really quite a bit less ?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Actually the chance of dying from Covid if you are an otherwise healthy individual is very small vaccinated or unvaccinated, how many of the deaths to date have occurred in healthy individuals in NZ, your post is full of blatant scaremongering and doesn't belong on this thread anyway.

What on earth are you on about? My post is the complete opposite of scaremongering! Maybe go back and re-read it as I lay out plenty of argument as to why fully vaccinated people have little to fear from covid in the community going forward, and 2022 deaths amongst the vaccinated will be far less than other common causes of death.

And its very on topic to our present discussion as to whether people will be comfortable returning to in person retail activity.

Oh wait - are you upset that i said only fully vaccinated people will be ok? Are you from the anti-Vaxxer loony brigade? (Yes the chances of dying from covid are less if you are young and healthy, but unfortunately that leaves millions of people in NZ who are not in that category who are old and/or unhealthy that are susceptible to death or bad covid complications, and the healthy people will be the ones passing it onto everyone, as its a very contagious virus - hence why everyone needs to be vaccinated, even if they are young and healthy)

[couta1]

What on earth are you on about? My post is the complete opposite of scaremongering! Maybe go back and re-read it as I lay out plenty of argument as to why fully vaccinated people have little to fear from covid in the community going forward, and 2022 deaths amongst the vaccinates will be far less than other common causes of death.

And its very on topic to pour present discussion as to whether people will be comfortable returning to in person retail activity.

Oh wait - are you upset that i said only fully vaccinated people will be ok? Are you from the anti-Vaxxer loony brigade? Well feel free to ignore anything I post if so as I have no desire at all to engage with the feeble minded if thats the case. There is a Coronavirus thread available to put up your rant, you are obviously very shallow on the research front as well, no im not anti-vax as I've had plenty from birth till now.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

There is a Coronavirus thread available to put up your rant, you are obviously very shallow on the research front as well, no im not anti-vax as I've had plenty from birth till now.

No idea what your argument is then - Covid restrictions being lifted, and the publics behavior following, is by far the biggest factor for NZ listed retail companies right now and for their results in the year ahead. It is 100% appropriate topic for discussion on the WHS thread, and any other retail company on this forum. Literally in two hours from now the government will confirm whether or not Auckland retail will reopen this week or not, and the decision is 100% based around covid. To suggest that covid in NZ and its impact on retail is not an appropriate topic of conversation on this thread is preposterous.

[ratkin]

Only danger to retail is inflation and interest rates. Covid (once opened up) will have negligible impact.
There could be a relative decline in online shopping as many have had negative experiences with delivery delays. Also people will be keen to actually get out of the house and off the computer.
The idea that many will be too scared to leave the house is a bit ridiculous.

[Beat the Bank]

Question.
What is more depressing than being in Auckland?
Answer.
Reading Sharetrader!!

It would be good to read the stock forums without all the political hype/bias, and big picture covid arguing.

[Waltzing]

"The Group will be releasing its first quarter sales update this Friday, 12 November."

the stats will be on the NZX. W(n) will no doubt be looking for the latest release of credit card stats in NZ retail.

[winner69]

"The Group will be releasing its first quarter sales update this Friday, 12 November."

the stats will be on the NZX. W(n) will no doubt be looking for the latest release of credit card stats in NZ retail.




October credit card stats won’t be meaningful. …..it’s all about how wondrous November and December will be….you know the huge catch-up

[Waltzing]

Aus might be interesting from the 6 month period stats out in Jan.

Yes should have frame the 6 months and stats out in Jan for NZ..

The NZ stats for retail will show the effect of AUCKLAND area as against Last Year.

that drill down into the variance might be interesting to show the patterns.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Retail Reopening confirmed! Wednesday is the day to start the splurge.

Strong indication that the move to the “Traffic Light” covid management plan (Where everything including bars/restaurants/cinemas/gyms etc reopens to vaccinated people with the vaccine passport system) will be approved for Auckland in the Nov 29th review.

[iceman]

Only danger to retail is inflation and interest rates. Covid (once opened up) will have negligible impact.
There could be a relative decline in online shopping as many have had negative experiences with delivery delays. Also people will be keen to actually get out of the house and off the computer.
The idea that many will be too scared to leave the house is a bit ridiculous.

I agree ratkin that COVID per se is not going to be the problem. But I can see inflation through cost increases and supply pressures (huge freight costs increases) becoming a big issue for retail. Those of us that have experienced it know how destructive inflation is and both businesses and employees simply are always left behind. IKEA is already acknowledging this as can be seen from this headline in the FT a couple of days ago: "Ikea warns of price rises and lower profits as cost and supply pressures bite"
Of course there will be a bit of a sugar rush when Auckland comes out of lockdown, but NZ retail will only do well in the medium term future if the Government keeps printing money at a crazy rate but eventually that will lead to NZD depreciation. If IKEA is readying for less profits because of inflation, what on earth makes us think the tiny WHS, HLG & BRG at the end of the World will escape it.

Once we belatedly open up the border, there will be huge pent up demand for travel, like many other countries are experiencing right now.

I am not buying into the rosy picture talked about by most on this thread.

Discl: very small holdings in WHS & HLG

[whome]

LEK’s post is right on the button. Once retail opens we will all be exposed to the COVID virus challenge that comes when people congregate. Those who are vaccinated will still get flu symptoms but will be able to fight it off. The ignorant unvaccinated 10% will be hugely affected and a proportion will die - too bad, they have had 18 months to prepare. I feel for hospital staff who will be overloaded.
My 6 -y-o granddaughter will get vaccinated but will still be mixing with the carriers at school and therefore I have grave concerns for my 2-y-o grandson who will become exposed and not able to be vaccinated yet.

[couta1]

LEK’s post is right on the button. Once retail opens we will all be exposed to the COVID virus challenge that comes when people congregate. Those who are vaccinated will still get flu symptoms but will be able to fight it off. The ignorant unvaccinated 10% will be hugely affected and a proportion will die - too bad, they have had 18 months to prepare. I feel for hospital staff who will be overloaded.
My 6 -y-o granddaughter will get vaccinated but will still be mixing with the carriers at school and therefore I have grave concerns for my 2-y-o grandson who will become exposed and not able to be vaccinated yet. Although your post includes the word retail it is mainly a Covid vaccinated versus unvaccinated opinion and should be on the Coronavirus thread not here.

[bull....]

bnz have these thoughts in there latest newsletter

In the latest BNZ Markets Outlook (https://image.markets.bnz.co.nz/lib/fe8f1274776206797d/m/3/BNZMO_08112021.pdf), BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says the single biggest uncertainty facing the economy over the next twelve months is how business and consumer sentiment responds to endemic Covid.
Toplis believes There are "many ways this can go". At the extremes we could:


collectively accept the risks of operating in such an environment, relish our freedoms and push ahead with economic expansion; or
fear could rise aggressively, domestic spending on services could collapse, labour supply could drop and the economy could retrench.


"For most of the world endemic Covid is now situation normal. New Zealand is yet to experience this phenomenon.
"We will soon be thrust headlong into a very different world."

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/113104/bnz-economists-say-single-biggest-uncertainty-facing-economy-over-next-twelve

[Rawz]

BNZ... talk about sitting on the fence lol. "many way this can go". thanks for that

The weather next year. Could be rain, sun, windy etc. There's many ways it could go. Heard it here first

[LaserEyeKiwi]

bnz have these thoughts in there latest newsletter

In the latest BNZ Markets Outlook (https://image.markets.bnz.co.nz/lib/fe8f1274776206797d/m/3/BNZMO_08112021.pdf), BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis says the single biggest uncertainty facing the economy over the next twelve months is how business and consumer sentiment responds to endemic Covid.
Toplis believes There are "many ways this can go". At the extremes we could:


collectively accept the risks of operating in such an environment, relish our freedoms and push ahead with economic expansion; or
fear could rise aggressively, domestic spending on services could collapse, labour supply could drop and the economy could retrench.


"For most of the world endemic Covid is now situation normal. New Zealand is yet to experience this phenomenon.
"We will soon be thrust headlong into a very different world."

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/113104/bnz-economists-say-single-biggest-uncertainty-facing-economy-over-next-twelve


Well they basically answered their own question there didn’t they: “For most of the world endemic Covid is now situation normal”

All regions globally have seen strong retail performance following reopening. We can even look to the very recent reopening of our closet culture match in Australia and see they are already confirming a strong retail bounceback in NSW & VIC after retail reopened.

From today:


Australia’s small to medium-sized businesses are already starting to reap the benefits of eased coronavirus restrictions, according to new consumer data from MYOB indicating retail trade has returned to pre-Delta levels.

MYOB chief executive Greg Ellis told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age he was positively surprised by how quickly small to medium enterprises had recovered from the pandemic, and the extensive lockdowns in Victoria, New South Wales, and the ACT.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

LEK’s post is right on the button. Once retail opens we will all be exposed to the COVID virus challenge that comes when people congregate. Those who are vaccinated will still get flu symptoms but will be able to fight it off. The ignorant unvaccinated 10% will be hugely affected and a proportion will die - too bad, they have had 18 months to prepare. I feel for hospital staff who will be overloaded.
My 6 -y-o granddaughter will get vaccinated but will still be mixing with the carriers at school and therefore I have grave concerns for my 2-y-o grandson who will become exposed and not able to be vaccinated yet.

I agree - I don’t think retail will be the place in the economy that suffers from the unvaccinated morons spreading the virus to the vaccinated, so WHS along with Briscoes, Michael Hill, Kathmandu, hallensteins etc should all be fine in the new environment, although will have to adjust to the regular disruption to staffing etc upon exposure events (not sure exactly how that will work, but probably less of an issue for the bigger format retailers where I think double vaccinated mask wearing staff would be considered casual contacts at worst, and probably wont need to isolate, but may need tests).

But something like Early childhood education providers probably isn’t a good place to have money invested in at the moment for instance.

[couta1]

I agree - I don’t think retail will be the place in the economy that suffers from the unvaccinated morons spreading the virus to the vaccinated, so WHS along with Briscoes, Michael Hill, Kathmandu, hallensteins etc should all be fine in the new environment, although will have to adjust to the regular disruption to staffing etc upon exposure events (not sure exactly how that will work, but probably less of an issue for the bigger format retailers where I think double vaccinated mask wearing staff would be considered casual contacts at worst, and probably wont need to isolate, but may need tests).

But something like Early childhood education providers probably isn’t a good place to have money invested in at the moment for instance. Stop insulting people, many unvaccinated people i know are highly intelligent/well researched individuals who aren't sheep and make their own decisions, fight the real enemy which is the divide and rule vaccine mandate instigated by the Govt, as I've said before you are not a well researched individual on these matters, take your insults to the Coronavirus thread and see how you get on.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:: laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/9fd6c1a4-cb6a-4460-930a-7d3fe3b05227https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/3bab6296-dbbc-4e98-9338-1502052c003613197

[BlackPeter]

Stop insulting people, many unvaccinated people i know are highly intelligent/well researched individuals who aren't sheep and make their own decisions, fight the real enemy which is the divide and rule vaccine mandate instigated by the Govt, as I've said before you are not a well researched individual on these matters, take your insults to the Coronavirus thread and see how you get on.

Look, this is what you believe and your faith has absolutely nothing to do with facts no matter how many creationists you cite and how many you-tube videos you distribute.

No need to try to stuff your anti whatever vaxxer religion down everybody's throat.

LEK was absolutely right.

[Beagle]

Australia’s small to medium-sized businesses are already starting to reap the benefits of eased coronavirus restrictions, according to new consumer data from MYOB indicating retail trade has returned to pre-Delta levels.

MYOB chief executive Greg Ellis told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age he was positively surprised by how quickly small to medium enterprises had recovered from the pandemic, and the extensive lockdowns in Victoria, New South Wales, and the ACT.

Good info there, thanks for sharing. I still believe its the young people that will lead the charge and we both know I think there's another listed retailer that better targets that demographic, one that's already benefitting from the rebound in NSW and Victoria :cool:

I got to think last evening...as you do...some of the retailers have been very clear beneficiaries of this lockdown, Noel Leeming selling goods at full price and MHJ selling sparkly things people don't need to make them feel better sprang readily to mind. These tailwinds can't last forever but people always need clothes....just a thought.

Anyway I see MHJ share price bounding away again so what would I know about what people really want lol

[Rawz]

Why do we need clothes thou? :p

[Beagle]

13198

I don't, I have very colorful fur :p

[couta1]

Look, this is what you believe and your faith has absolutely nothing to do with facts no matter how many creationists you cite and how many you-tube videos you distribute.

No need to try to stuff your anti whatever vaxxer religion down everybody's throat.

LEK was absolutely right. I am only addressing insults and hate speech against others, you are also heavily involved in this behaviour on many threads, this is a WHS thread not a Coronavirus rant one. And by the way I have not distributed anything other than giving another poster the title of a book he asked for on the Coronavirus thread, he then posted further info on it so get your facts right.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

My observation has been that anti-vaxers fit into one of two categories: uneducated or religious. Fortunately facts don't care about feelings or religious beliefs, so blocking unvaccinated people from retail should make people comfortable to shop strongly as we open again.

Anyway, in my opinion the bigger issue on the longer term horizon is inflation and the impact this may have on consumer confidence in retail.

[Rawz]

I heard people are camping outside Sylvia Park waiting for the grand re-opening. Wow retail is a big fat buy right now

[couta1]

My observation has been that anti-vaxers fit into one of two categories: uneducated or religious. Fortunately facts don't care about feelings or religious beliefs, so blocking unvaccinated people from retail should make people comfortable to shop strongly as we open again.

Anyway, in my opinion the bigger issue on the longer term horizon is inflation and the impact this may have on consumer confidence in retail. You make far too many boxed thinking/inaccurate assumptions in your first sentence, your second paragraph looks more accurate in relation to the WHS.

[Rawz]

I heard people are camping outside Sylvia Park waiting for the grand re-opening. Wow retail is a big fat buy right now

here is the story. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-people-already-lining-up-outside-auckland-shopping-mall/JEDF6GUFUYI3KXMQVFOKYCBQHA/

They are queuing for a $150 gift pack from a new store opening. Take the pack and no doubt buy hundreds of dollars worth of goods as well.

Tindall and Duke were on the money. The revenge spend this year is going to be huge.

[bull....]

I heard people are camping outside Sylvia Park waiting for the grand re-opening. Wow retail is a big fat buy right now

sure they are not just homeless people ?

[BlackPeter]

You make far too many boxed thinking/inaccurate assumptions in your first sentence, your second paragraph looks more accurate in relation to the WHS.

Again - you are trying to put your convoluted believe system on other peoples minds. JTH's observation is spot on.

[Waltzing]

"sure they are not just homeless people ?"

does T7 have a lot of camping gear? maybe they are also heading to KMD after they have finished with the sport binge bargain buying .

supply chain for bike parts is really getting short of spares as a Trek put into the shop for big repair is waited 3 weeks for parts and due back in about a farther week. Its normally a couple of days. There were only 1 of each item required as replacement parts in the country although disk brakes were found in stock at another store.

4 weeks to service a road bike..

[couta1]

Again - you are trying to put your convoluted believe system on other peoples minds. JTH's observation is spot on. Everything is spot on in your eyes as long as it agrees with your psychotic thinking, posters are capable of answering me back if they wish to, they don't need your warped hatred to reply for them. By the way your latest cowardly bad rep comment was received but means nothing to me, please put me on ignore like you said you would and do us all a mighty favor.

[bull....]

"sure they are not just homeless people ?"

does T7 have a lot of camping gear? maybe they are also heading to KMD after they have finished with the sport binge bargain buying .

supply chain for bike parts is really getting short of spares as a Trek put into the shop for big repair is waited 3 weeks for parts and due back in about a farther week. Its normally a couple of days. There were only 1 of each item required as replacement parts in the country although disk brakes were found in stock at another store.

4 weeks to service a road bike..

ok i had a closer look at the picture. there not homeless people so i brought some WHS again today knowing this.

[DonkeyKong]

here is the story. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-people-already-lining-up-outside-auckland-shopping-mall/JEDF6GUFUYI3KXMQVFOKYCBQHA/

They are queuing for a $150 gift pack from a new store opening. Take the pack and no doubt buy hundreds of dollars worth of goods as well.

Tindall and Duke were on the money. The revenge spend this year is going to be huge.

Sneaker heads by the looks. If I recall correctly jd sports sells some exclusive sneakers. And the two guys in focus in the picture are wearing the Air Jordan 5 grape colour way and Air Jordan 1 High UNC colour way.

Quite common for them to line up and camp overnight even in normal times.




Edit: Adding link to the shoes reselling in usd on StockX

https://stockx.com/air-jordan-5-retro-alternate-grape

https://stockx.com/air-jordan-1-retro-high-unc-leather

[DonkeyKong]

Sneaker heads by the looks. If I recall correctly jd sports sells some exclusive sneakers. And the two guys in focus in the picture are wearing the Air Jordan 5 grape colour way and Air Jordan 1 High UNC colour way.

Quite common for them to line up and camp overnight even in normal times.




Edit: Adding link to the shoes reselling in usd on StockX

https://stockx.com/air-jordan-5-retro-alternate-grape

https://stockx.com/air-jordan-1-retro-high-unc-leather

Yup, a sneaker drop is happening https://www.kiwiproperty.com/sylvia-park/en/events/jd-sports-grand-opening-at-sylvia-park/

They’ll be lining up for this. Unlikely for the $150 pack

“Join us for the BIGGEST drop of previously sold-out Air Jordan 1s, Nike Dunks & Retro Air Jordans NZ has ever seen.”

[winner69]

Stats NZ Card Spend October


Card spending increases in October - up 10%
The increase in the seasonally adjusted electronic card spending in October is the largest since June 2020.


Next month the heading will be -

HUMONGOUS GROWTH IN SALES - Growth as never seen before

[ratkin]

JD sports massive brand in the UK, it what all the chavs wear, they moving in on NZ. Rebel sport will be hit hard. The website up and running and it is where all the hoodie set will go to buy their gear.

That is why they are so keen to be queuing up. Unlikely anyone camping outside The Warehouse so don’t get your hopes up.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Stats NZ Card Spend October


Card spending increases in October - up 10%
The increase in the seasonally adjusted electronic card spending in October is the largest since June 2020.


Next month the heading will be -

HUMONGOUS GROWTH IN SALES - Growth as never seen before

For context - all of Auckland in-store retail was closed for the full month, along with Waikato for part of the month. Despite that nationwide card spending is down just 9% year on year.


New Zealanders spent $645 million (9.5 percent) more on their credit and debit cards in October, compared with last month, Stats NZ said today.

“The increase indicates spending is starting to return to levels seen before the country went into lockdown in the second half of August,” business performance manager Ricky Ho said.

The increase in the seasonally adjusted electronic card spending in October is the largest since June 2020. Spending in the previous two months has been relatively low, especially in the retail spending category.

In October, most spending categories had large increases and were also some of the largest seen in 2021.

“This reflects the easing of restrictions in some regions, which has allowed more stores to open for non-essential shopping,” Mr Ho said.

The seasonally adjusted value of total electronic card spending in October was $7.4 billion, with the retail spending category accounting for just over three-quarters of this. Retail card spending was up $519 million (10.1 percent).

In October, the durables spending category was up $149 million (11.5 percent) and drove the increase in total card spending. This category includes many non-essential items such as furniture, hardware, and appliances.

Groceries and liquor (consumables) was the only spending category that saw a decrease in card spending over the month, down $6 million (0.2 percent) from September 2021.

“The slight dip in grocery shopping could be due to New Zealanders now having more options to eat out or have takeaways, instead of purchasing food from supermarkets,” Mr Ho said.

In actual terms, total electronic card spending was $7.5 billion, down 9.2 percent ($0.8 billion) from the same time last year.

Values are only available at the national level and are not adjusted for price changes.

[Waltzing]

W(n), gold medal performance coming then. The NZ retail spender is a GOAT! Joins that paddling sensation who just cant give up.

[Rawz]

Stats NZ Card Spend October


Card spending increases in October - up 10%
The increase in the seasonally adjusted electronic card spending in October is the largest since June 2020.


Next month the heading will be -

HUMONGOUS GROWTH IN SALES - Growth as never seen before

You will be right W69, as usual. But to be fair we have had a tough year. We all deserve a bit of retail therapy.

I finally built up the courage to ask wifey about yet another package that was delivered to our door earlier today. She just replied, "a parcel a day keeps the sadness away" lol :laugh: its so true though. We deserve to reward ourselves for the what has felt like an extended winter.

The only thing that may slow sales is Paymark crashing and the retailers unable to swipe those credit cards

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Here’s the breakdown for the year on year compare:

Changes in the actual value of electronic card transactions for the October 2021 month (compared with October 2020)Consumables sub-industry movements:

supermarket and grocery stores, up $181 million (9.5 percent)
liquor, down $8 million (3.8 percent)
specialised food, down $18 million (7.8 percent).

Durables sub-industry movements:

furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing, down $81 million (9.9 percent)
pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing, down $57 million (15.8 percent)
department stores, down $37 million (10.9 percent)
recreational goods, down $15 million (8.9 percent).

Hospitality sub-industry movements:

food and beverage services, down $212 million (21.7 percent)
accommodation services, down $63 million (37.9 percent).

Non-retail sub-industry movements:

medical and other health care services (includes GPs, specialists, physiotherapy, optometry, ambulances, and dental care), down $56 million (21.1 percent)
postal and courier pick-up and delivery services, down $20 million (33.6 percent)
travel agency and other tour arrangement services, down $6 million (from $21 million to $14 million).

Note: As a result of low levels of spending in several sub-industries due to Auckland being in alert level 3 in October, as well as parts of Waikato and Northland for most of October, and the rest of New Zealand in alert level 2 for the same period, there have been large percentage decreases in these sub-industries between October 2020 and October 2021.

[ratkin]

You will be right W69, as usual. But to be fair we have had a tough year. We all deserve a bit of retail therapy.

I finally built up the courage to ask wifey about yet another package that was delivered to our door earlier today. She just replied, "a parcel a day keeps the sadness away" lol :laugh: its so true though. We deserve to reward ourselves for the what has felt like an extended winter.

The only thing that may slow sales is Paymark crashing and the retailers unable to swipe those credit cards

courier should use that as a slogan. It is a decent dopamine rush having a parcel arrive on the doorstep

[ratkin]

Stats NZ Card Spend October


Card spending increases in October - up 10%
The increase in the seasonally adjusted electronic card spending in October is the largest since June 2020.


Next month the heading will be -

HUMONGOUS GROWTH IN SALES - Growth as never seen before

Do yu have the regional breakdown? Be interesting to see if he same pattern exists in the South Island which has had fairly normal shopping conditions. I was in Barrington warehouse today, and only a single till lane was open, and still no checkout queue, very quiet

[BlackPeter]

Everything is spot on in your eyes as long as it agrees with your psychotic thinking, posters are capable of answering me back if they wish to, they don't need your warped hatred to reply for them. By the way your latest cowardly bad rep comment was received but means nothing to me, please put me on ignore like you said you would and do us all a mighty favor.

Well, this post tells us a lot about you.

[winner69]

Here’s the breakdown for the year on year compare:

Changes in the actual value of electronic card transactions for the October 2021 month (compared with October 2020)Consumables sub-industry movements:

supermarket and grocery stores, up $181 million (9.5 percent)
liquor, down $8 million (3.8 percent)
specialised food, down $18 million (7.8 percent).

Durables sub-industry movements:

furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing, down $81 million (9.9 percent)
pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing, down $57 million (15.8 percent)
department stores, down $37 million (10.9 percent)
recreational goods, down $15 million (8.9 percent).

Hospitality sub-industry movements:

food and beverage services, down $212 million (21.7 percent)
accommodation services, down $63 million (37.9 percent).

Non-retail sub-industry movements:

medical and other health care services (includes GPs, specialists, physiotherapy, optometry, ambulances, and dental care), down $56 million (21.1 percent)
postal and courier pick-up and delivery services, down $20 million (33.6 percent)
travel agency and other tour arrangement services, down $6 million (from $21 million to $14 million).

Note: As a result of low levels of spending in several sub-industries due to Auckland being in alert level 3 in October, as well as parts of Waikato and Northland for most of October, and the rest of New Zealand in alert level 2 for the same period, there have been large percentage decreases in these sub-industries between October 2020 and October 2021.

No mention of Apparel sector being down 35% on October last year …hmmmm

[bull....]

a lot of people outside shops alright

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126940404/covid19-shoppers-flood-auckland-stores-and-malls-as-restrictions-ease

Shoppers flood Auckland stores and malls as restrictions ease

[bull....]

yep duke saying

It won't be like any other Wednesday we've ever experienced' - Briscoes boss says as Auckland retailers reopen

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...tailers-reopen (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126931064/it-wont-be-like-any-other-wednesday-weve-ever-experienced--briscoes-boss-says-as-auckland-retailers-reopen)

[bull....]

It won't be like any other Wednesday we've ever experienced' - Briscoes boss says as Auckland retailers reopen

[bull....]

did you know even duke has hired security guards at his stores for today cause he thinks it going to be crazy busy

[Rawz]

WHS holders going to get our big divvy and probably set a new 52 week high on the hype surrounding this boom in retail spending.

[bull....]

WHS holders going to get our big divvy and probably set a new 52 week high on the hype surrounding this boom in retail spending.

yep and remember november is now december. black friday/cyber monday people rushing to beat post delays. auckland opened just in time. its going to be a huge mth

[cymonger]

The most obvious tailwind I've ever seen really.

Completely flummoxed by the gloom and doom on here for the last month. Just one bad "prediction" after another.

[bull....]

The most obvious tailwind I've ever seen really.

Completely flummoxed by the gloom and doom on here for the last month. Just one bad "prediction" after another.

not talking about beagle are you

[winner69]

Protestors or shoppers

MaybevPM expected there

[Waltzing]

SP shooting up on the change in weather... UV up, sun block running off the shelves and no one wants to stay inside.. Hope they all used 50+ sun block.

probably dont believe in sun block either...

not all doom prediction, just a sector rebalancing across most retail stocks.

[Waltzing]

sales of 50 plus are up today. can you buy it at the warehouse? on line?

there will be protests soon about the new mandate on sunblock 50 plus.

[ratkin]

The most obvious tailwind I've ever seen really.

Completely flummoxed by the gloom and doom on here for the last month. Just one bad "prediction" after another.

Some when they sell, feel a strange need to hang around and talk negatively about a stock. It is just noise, best ignored

[cymonger]

Some when they sell, feel a strange need to hang around and talk negatively about a stock. It is just noise, best ignored

Yes, fair enough. Congrats to all resilient holders who saw the writing on the wall here. Those masses of people shopping today are what we've all been saying for months. Cheers to all of you for keeping your nerve.

[see weed]

Car park at Royal Oak WHS 95% full. Grabbed another bundle of shares when I got home.

[winner69]

Share price not far off 52 week high

Maybe next week after a much better than expected Q1 sales update and some positive news about the future

[Grimy]

Wet weekend coming up. Should direct people to the shops. My son was at Bunnings/Mitre10 and The Warehouse first thing this morning. Spent the most at The Warehouse.
My 85 yo neighbour is heading in tomorrow with his Christmas shopping list. I suggested he might like to leave it a few days but he's having none of that!

[Waltzing]

hamilton malls in city centre were pretty empty although K Mark was busy..foot traffic should pick up when cafes, hairdressers gymns, ect open up.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

hamilton malls in city centre were pretty empty although K Mark was busy..foot traffic should pick up when cafes, hairdressers gymns, ect open up.

The base Hamilton mall had multiple CV exposure sites this week which probably spooked people somewhat in Hamilton from heading there. People will get used to it though, which is precisely what happened in Auckland regarding supermarkets - the first time early in the outbreak patronage at identified supermarkets fell after being named a place of interest, but that effect quickly dissipated as people got used to supermarket locations frequently being listed as exposure events and now there is no impact on supermarket patronage after being named a place of interest.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wet weekend coming up. Should direct people to the shops. My son was at Bunnings/Mitre10 and The Warehouse first thing this morning. Spent the most at The Warehouse.
My 85 yo neighbour is heading in tomorrow with his Christmas shopping list. I suggested he might like to leave it a few days but he's having none of that!

“Black Friday” sales coming up: will be very heavy promotions starting next week for what is now the biggest shopping event of the year in many places. I iamgine in Auckland in particular it will likely set a spending record which may never be repeated (with the perfect storm of freshly released cashed up population and Black Friday deals, with the main handbrake being capacity constraints in stores at any one time)

[iceman]

“Black Friday” sales coming up: will be very heavy promotions starting next week for what is now the biggest shopping event of the year in many places. I iamgine in Auckland in particular it will likely set a spending record which may never be repeated (with the perfect storm of freshly released cashed up population and Black Friday deals, with the main handbrake being capacity constraints in stores at any one time)

Quite incredible how NZ retailers have turned this US craziness into an event in NZ. But given the huge discounts, do they actually make much money on that day ?

[arekaywhy]

The base Hamilton mall had multiple CV exposure sites this week which probably spooked people somewhat in Hamilton from heading there. People will get used to it though, which is precisely what happened in Auckland regarding supermarkets - the first time early in the outbreak patronage at identified supermarkets fell after being named a place of interest, but that effect quickly dissipated as people got used to supermarket locations frequently being listed as exposure events and now there is no impact on supermarket patronage after being named a place of interest.


yeah people are smart, they work out pretty quick that this thing is all a beat up and there is no real risk. The propaganda doesn't work when daily experience tells you otherwise

[BlackPeter]

Quite incredible how NZ retailers have turned this US craziness into an event in NZ. But given the huge discounts, do they actually make much money on that day ?

I am sure they do ... just take some prices of stuff you always wanted to buy throughout the year and compare them to Black Friday (or whatever the sale of the week is called) prices. I did in recent years, and sometimes the stuff sold on these super special events is even more expensive than the normal prices ... many shops first think about a ridiculous high price they never could sell their goods for and give a discount in that one.

However - not so much a problem with the Warehouse (neither the discounts nor the moon prices) ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Quite incredible how NZ retailers have turned this US craziness into an event in NZ. But given the huge discounts, do they actually make much money on that day ?

Was reading yesterday that in Australia November is now a bigger month for retail revenue than December, all due to Black Friday.

[Rawz]

Went to Botany Downs, omg it was pumping. Car park full, farmers full, queues outside warehouse. Had to wait ages for my Starbucks. What has got into people???

Retail is booming!

[dameofdiv]

“Black Friday” sales coming up: will be very heavy promotions starting next week for what is now the biggest shopping event of the year in many places. I iamgine in Auckland in particular it will likely set a spending record which may never be repeated (with the perfect storm of freshly released cashed up population and Black Friday deals, with the main handbrake being capacity constraints in stores at any one time)

Sales has started today with 11% discount storewide and online across WHS group, with the Singles Day promotion brought popular by China shopping waves... :t_up: I can't help but shop a lil today as some items I've been eyeing at its lowest price.

[Panda-NZ-]

WHS has no australian exposure so looking good.

Real test will be trading post dividend.

[winner69]

Black Friday, Singles Day and such things were always exciting for A2

Is there has much hype about these days for the likes of WHS

Somebody once told me you can only sell something once ….think he was telling me big days affect future days ..and at the end of the day you’ve not that much better off.

[dreamcatcher]

I am sure they do ... just take some prices of stuff you always wanted to buy throughout the year and compare them to Black Friday (or whatever the sale of the week is called) prices. I did in recent years, and sometimes the stuff sold on these super special events is even more expensive than the normal prices ... many shops first think about a ridiculous high price they never could sell their goods for and give a discount in that one.

However - not so much a problem with the Warehouse (neither the discounts nor the moon prices) ...

Totally agree BP two years ago same computer system was $300 dearer one day later on Black Friday....... PB Tech

[percy]

Sales has started today with 11% discount storewide and online across WHS group, with the Singles Day promotion brought popular by China shopping waves... :t_up: I can't help but shop a lil today as some items I've been eyeing at its lowest price.

Am I alone in this environment?
There is nothing I am looking to buy,no matter what the price is......

[Rawz]

Am I alone in this environment?
There is nothing I am looking to buy,no matter what the price is......

Yes you are Scrooge McDuck :p

13207

Go for another swim in your vault of gold coins and leave the spending to us millennials. We love credit and consumption ;)

[percy]

Yes you are Scrooge McDuck :p

13207

Go for another swim in your vault of gold coins and leave the spending to us millennials. We love credit and consumption ;)

Yes happy to leave you miilennials to it,as I have everything I want or need.

[winner69]

Update and Q1 sales today

Quarterly sales will be bad but totally irrelevant in the context of lockdowns etc etc

More important is that Q2 sales will be TOTALLY AMAZING ……putting half year growth into double digits

No worries (and Stephen agrees with me)

[Grimy]

Am I alone in this environment?
There is nothing I am looking to buy,no matter what the price is......

No Percy, you're not alone! Best advice I was given when younger-if you need something, get it. If you want something leave it a while and then revisit it-chances are you either won't want it anymore, or realise you don't need it........

[winner69]

No Percy, you're not alone! Best advice I was given when younger-if you need something, get it. If you want something leave it a while and then revisit it-chances are you either won't want it anymore, or realise you don't need it........

That’s good grimy.

I went to Bunnings yesterday to get screws and some weed killer. First real retail trip out for yonks.

With population getting older and many with shopping traits like percy and us and the younger ones seem to be pleading poverty more and more you’d think that over time retail (non-food) growth would be getting more subdued as time passes.

[iceman]

Am I alone in this environment?
There is nothing I am looking to buy,no matter what the price is......

Nope, definitely not

[Grimy]

My only shopping (other than groceries or doctor visits) has been click & collect garden supplies. And my first proper shop will also be Bunnings/Mitre 10 for bits and pieces to complete a few jobs.
Unfortunately WHS doesn't really do DIY stuff other than some furniture and garden. Perhaps fortunately as I'd hate to see the mess in the hinges/screws/nuts and bolts aisle if the shoe aisle is anything to go by..........

[winner69]

Sales down on pcp as expected

Gross Margin down 200 basis pints - jeez thats huge. If applied to the full year that's about a $70m impact on bottom line

But Nick has got it covered ...all fixed now ....only a temporary matter no worries

Gross profit margin reduced 200 basis points to 32.9% for the first quarter compared to the same quarter in FY21, largely due to increased clearance sales as we had a build-up of winter seasonal stock due to the COVID-19 lockdown timing. There has also been a change in product
mix with the limitations of lockdown shopping.

[Beagle]

No Percy, you're not alone! Best advice I was given when younger-if you need something, get it. If you want something leave it a while and then revisit it-chances are you either won't want it anymore, or realise you don't need it........
Very well said. The stuff "I think" I want is not available at the Warehouse, (we are talking fancy European cars and boats here). I think I'll leave that a while and maybe come back to it :)


Am I alone in this environment?
There is nothing I am looking to buy,no matter what the price is......

I need some more socks and that's it.

Sales result is out and doesn't look too bad, (total group sales down 14.6%) but gross profit margin is down 200 basis points so that boom in GP margin looks to be waning.
As usual Noel Leeming is the best performer down only a few percent but red sheds down more than 20%
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/382741/359109.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/382741/359112.pdf
Dividend hounds will be pleased the dividend stays.

It will be interesting to see how the share price holds up when it trades ex dividend.
I see value at $3.50.

[Sideshow Bob]

Warehouse closing its Mosgolia store

The Warehouse proposes closing its Mosgiel store | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/warehouse-proposes-closing-its-mosgiel-store)

[winner69]

Sales result is out and doesn't look too bad, (total group sales down 14.6%) .

sales down 15% means they have held share (maybe marginally up) .......( that is using the national retail sales data WHS prefer)

So that's a positive

[winner69]

Warehouse closing its Mosgolia store

The Warehouse proposes closing its Mosgiel store | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/warehouse-proposes-closing-its-mosgiel-store)

That's great news --- optimising returns from footprint .... no point in hanging on to dud stores not paying their way

Be quite a saving -- occupancy and staff costs ... and no loss of sales

Good stuff

Does that mean only one store left in Dunedin?

[bull....]

shame about the margin decline , but hey it was due to overstock. hope all the xmas sales eventuate for all retailers otherwise there might be some mighty sales in the new year

[peat]

1) Total Group sales includes TheMarket segment, eliminations and other Group operations in addition to the 4 main retail operations detailed above

TheMarket.com almost certainly less than 10m so totally insignificant

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Fantastic result given the Auckland stores were only open for instore shopping for 17 of the 91 days in the quarter.

Crazy good performance from Noel Leeming and Torpedo7 - both HIGHER than same quarter FY2020 result. Amazing.

Warehouse (red shed) continued to improve its efficiency during the quarter with store footprint again reducing during the quarter (2 store within a store integrations with warehouse stationary it looks like).

In the comments it was good to see October trading for the rest of the country in level 2 areas (south of Waikato) were actually up year on year, indicating level 2 (masks, social distancing, capacity limits) is not an impediment to retail spend.

Notable they went out of there way to talk about the troubles with courier system in New Zealand (that they hope will be relieved by in store shopping restarted in Auckland). I am hoping this mention is the first attempt to prepare investors for a possible announcement that they are going to set up there own “last mile” delivery network. Pure speculation on my part here to be clear.

13208

[Sideshow Bob]

That's great news --- optimising returns from footprint .... no point in hanging on to dud stores not paying their way

Be quite a saving -- occupancy and staff costs ... and no loss of sales

Good stuff

Does that mean only one store left in Dunedin?

Yep, one Red Shed left in South Dunedin. The largest of the 3 and beside the only PNS in town.

Still have seperate WS and T7 stores. Actually T7 is only about 100m from the South D Warehouse.

Don't think there is a KMart in Dunnos. Left the mall over earthquake concerns and hasn't found a suitable alternate site yet.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

1) Total Group sales includes TheMarket segment, eliminations and other Group operations in addition to the 4 main retail operations detailed above

TheMarket.com almost certainly less than 10m so totally insignificant

Well there is a $11.4 million difference between the $630.7m total group sales and the total of the four retail brands at $619.3m.

However most of themarket.com sales are of the four WHS brands, meaning that revenue generated through themarket.com shows up in the other segments revenue (If I recall correctly)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sales down on pcp as expected

Gross Margin down 200 basis pints - jeez thats huge. If applied to the full year that's about a $70m impact on bottom line

But Nick has got it covered ...all fixed now ....only a temporary matter no worries

Gross profit margin reduced 200 basis points to 32.9% for the first quarter compared to the same quarter in FY21, largely due to increased clearance sales as we had a build-up of winter seasonal stock due to the COVID-19 lockdown timing. There has also been a change in product
mix with the limitations of lockdown shopping.

EDIT: Never mind - realized we talking annual, not quarterly

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Looks like online deliveries surpassed $100 million for the first time (total online sales were $190m+, but 46.7% were click & collect).

Good to see almost $190m+ of sales generation go through WHS online portals as well. By comparison Briscoes Group had $110m online sales over the same time frame.

[LoungeLizzard]

Maybe New Zealanders appetite for wasting money on cheap junk is waning. God I hope so.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Maybe New Zealanders appetite for wasting money on cheap junk is waning. God I hope so.

How do you mean? You think they are moving their preference up to wasting money on expensive junk instead? I guess that might be why WHS brands Noel Leeming and Torpedo7 have done so well.

[cymonger]

it's funny listening to all these anti-capitalist sentiments on a website designed to share opinions that help us maximize profits and gains. Seems an odd place to hang out for people with such strong opinions about the evils of consumerism. Kind of reminds me of Al Gore. Preaching to us little people about the dangers of global warming while using more electricity in a year than an average family would use in more than 20.

So sick of "virtue signaling" investing, politics, etc. We all want to make money, right? Let's just be honest. You either believe in capitalism or you don't. And if you don't want to participate in it, why in the world would you waste your precious time on a financial website?

[LoungeLizzard]

it's funny listening to all these anti-capitalist sentiments on a website designed to share opinions that help us maximize profits and gains. Seems an odd place to hang out for people with such strong opinions about the evils of consumerism. Kind of reminds me of Al Gore. Preaching to us little people about the dangers of global warming while using more electricity in a year than an average family would use in more than 20.

So sick of "virtue signaling" investing, politics, etc. We all want to make money, right? Let's just be honest. You either believe in capitalism or you don't. And if you don't want to participate in it, why in the world would you waste your precious time on a financial website?

I note the above sentiment doesn't stop rabid capitalists from extolling consumerism day in day out? On this thread virtue signalling is all about cheering on consumerism. And FYI, being an investor doesn't mean you have to invest in every Chinese crapola company in town.

[dameofdiv]

Maybe New Zealanders appetite for wasting money on cheap junk is waning. God I hope so.

While the Red shed itself is ridiculously limited in its offering (I struggle to find anything worthy to buy there too like many), theMarket.com is actually growing in its offering of branded goods. Bought my electrical "needs" there lately, with discounts and free shipping. Can't ask for more.

[winner69]

Looks like online deliveries surpassed $100 million for the first time (total online sales were $190m+, but 46.7% were click & collect).

Good to see almost $190m+ of sales generation go through WHS online portals as well. By comparison Briscoes Group had $110m online sales over the same time frame.

Online a good back stop for TWG but the $190m v $110m for Briscoes has to be seen in the context of TWG sales v $631m v $138m for Briscoes ...TWG 4.5 times bigger

Online / TheMarket still a play thing for TWG?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Online a good back stop for TWG but the $190m v $110m for Briscoes has to be seen in the context of TWG sales v $631m v $138m for Briscoes ...TWG 4.5 times bigger

Online / TheMarket still a play thing for TWG?

Right you are! Was looking at year to date Briscoes sales and online sales of 22%.

Briscoes online sales were 38% for the quarter ($52.5m)

I think this speaks to the advantage the warehouse would have if it intends to launch its own last mile delivery service - it has the scale to do it unlike other retailers.

=====

On themarket.com, I think its a key strategic asset for the group.

[mfd]

it's funny listening to all these anti-capitalist sentiments on a website designed to share opinions that help us maximize profits and gains. Seems an odd place to hang out for people with such strong opinions about the evils of consumerism. Kind of reminds me of Al Gore. Preaching to us little people about the dangers of global warming while using more electricity in a year than an average family would use in more than 20.

So sick of "virtue signaling" investing, politics, etc. We all want to make money, right? Let's just be honest. You either believe in capitalism or you don't. And if you don't want to participate in it, why in the world would you waste your precious time on a financial website?

Think of it as an emotional hedge. If humanity grows out of the habit of buying cheap plastic crap to patch holes in our well being, great. If not, at least our portfolios grow.

Maybe a few NZ cricket fans will bet on Australia for similar reasons.

[cymonger]

Think of it as an emotional hedge. If humanity grows out of the habit of buying cheap plastic crap to patch holes in our well being, great. If not, at least our portfolios grow.

Maybe a few NZ cricket fans will bet on Australia for similar reasons.

Haha!! Nicely put. I often bet against the Chicago teams for this very reason!

There was this hilarious show a few years ago called "Silicon Valley" that was, as I understand it from my friends who work there, a fairly accurate portrayal of life in that world. They ended virtually every presentation with "and make the world a better place." But every other aspect of the show demonstrated the ruthless, dishonest, profit-driven world it really was.

I try to do some good things with the money I make. I give back some of my professional time to people who can't otherwise afford it.

But with business and investing? I want to maximize my returns. Sometimes we just need to accept business for what it is. Plenty of good you can do in the world with the money you make without all the laughably hypocritical virtue signaling.

[ratkin]

While the Red shed itself is ridiculously limited in its offering (I struggle to find anything worthy to buy there too like many), theMarket.com is actually growing in its offering of branded goods. Bought my electrical "needs" there lately, with discounts and free shipping. Can't ask for more.

Honestly, if the warehouse opened up its doors and gave me 5 minutes to take whatever I want (excluding electronics) I would struggle to fill a little basket

[Panda-NZ-]

Honestly, if the warehouse opened up its doors and gave me 5 minutes to take whatever I want (excluding electronics) I would struggle to fill a little basket

Simply take all the gift cards. :)

[pierre]

Honestly, if the warehouse opened up its doors and gave me 5 minutes to take whatever I want (excluding electronics) I would struggle to fill a little basket

There are probably relatively few STers who are in the target market for The Warehouse - but many more STers are beneficiaries of the spending of people who are in the target market.

Not much point in taking the gift cards either if there's nothing in the store that you'd want to buy with them.

[Panda-NZ-]

Not much point in taking the gift cards either if there's nothing in the store that you'd want to buy with them.

They have apple, noel leeming, torpedo7, spark gift cards too.

[pierre]

They have apple, noel leeming, torpedo7, spark gift cards too.
I seldom frequent The Warehouse so wouldnt know what gift cards they carry.
Discl: Hold WHS.

[LoungeLizzard]

Haha!! Nicely put. I often bet against the Chicago teams for this very reason!

There was this hilarious show a few years ago called "Silicon Valley" that was, as I understand it from my friends who work there, a fairly accurate portrayal of life in that world. They ended virtually every presentation with "and make the world a better place." But every other aspect of the show demonstrated the ruthless, dishonest, profit-driven world it really was.

I try to do some good things with the money I make. I give back some of my professional time to people who can't otherwise afford it.

But with business and investing? I want to maximize my returns. Sometimes we just need to accept business for what it is. Plenty of good you can do in the world with the money you make without all the laughably hypocritical virtue signaling.

"Virtue signalling" seem to be the favourite catch-all accusation here at anyone who tries, in part, to bring ethics into their investing. Not for everyone I grant you- some want to maximise their returns and don't care where those returns from. It's why we are where we are. The fossil fuel industry has existed for as long as it has because of its appeal to that sentiment. Hopefully those days are coming to an end - including I hope the throw away culture that the Red Sheds promote.

[THEONE]

The thing that bugs me about virtue signaling is they just want to appear superior and more caring.
When most of the time they are hypocrites.

How many of these people who are anti fossil fuels, have electric cars. Solar panels...?

Yes care for the environment, but don't bankrupt your everyday worker..People still need petrol for there cars..

Or is Jacinda going to buy us all a Tesla?

There is no viable solution at present we still need oil..yes try and invest in other technologies. but this takes time.

People complain about fossil fuel but at same time complain about petrol price.

The Green party should say they are very happy that petrol prices rise, see how many votes they get

[Waltzing]

look like everyone has been getting a bit excited.. NOV 29 is not freedom day...

cripes the business pain will continue...

sure these big retailers can handle it but the other smaller businesses are going to face months of this?

Oh Boy..another month or more of this? Retailers spoke today of taking out loans if they can get them for a six month cover period.

There is no voice of business at the table.

WHS probably wont recover very quickly after X DIV.

'You might have misunderstood' Little confirms November 29 is not 'Freedom Day' (https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/you-might-have-misunderstood-little-confirms-november-29-is-not-freedom-day/ar-AAQDX6Q?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBqdg4K)

[Habits]

Robertson and Orr have been pushing the banks to do more business lending. While the lockdowns create business risk

[ThaiJohn]

I've been trying out their grocery section of late ( trying to stay away from F'Stuffs and Prog. ) and have been pleasantly surprised at the variety on offer. Good value too.

[Waltzing]

Yes on line is going to be the way if the unvaccinated arnt locked down.

And business is now going to be thrown under the bus. Looks like someone in cabinet has insisted on a longer lock down system or longer step system...

The stalling system it should be called.

Wonder what the total damage will be in terms of national debt.

Whs has effectively borrowed to pay the DIV.

[Habits]

Oneday there is going to be a big review when we can look back in hindsight. People will be asking what were the costs vs the benefits. The business collapses and the national debt vs the lives saved and Cindy rescuing her world leading status. The picture will be clearer than what we see right now in the midst of lockdowns

[arekaywhy]

Oneday there is going to be a big review when we can look back in hindsight. People will be asking what were the costs vs the benefits. The business collapses and the national debt vs the lives saved and Cindy rescuing her world leading status. The picture will be clearer than what we see right now in the midst of lockdowns


Even better when you consider that "lives saved" amounts to a couple of extra months of painful existence for the few unfortunates who were "taken too soon" by a flu

[LaserEyeKiwi]

look like everyone has been getting a bit excited.. NOV 29 is not freedom day...

cripes the business pain will continue...

sure these big retailers can handle it but the other smaller businesses are going to face months of this?

Oh Boy..another month or more of this? Retailers spoke today of taking out loans if they can get them for a six month cover period.

There is no voice of business at the table.

WHS probably wont recover very quickly after X DIV.

'You might have misunderstood' Little confirms November 29 is not 'Freedom Day' (https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/you-might-have-misunderstood-little-confirms-november-29-is-not-freedom-day/ar-AAQDX6Q?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBqdg4K)

Retail had it’s “Freedom day” last week already.

What retailers aren’t open for instore shopping now?

As far as i know its just hospitality (restaurants/bars) and service businesses (cinemas/hairdressers/spas etc) that can’t operate in on-premises patronage at present - and they all continue to get the wage subsidies and government resurgence payments while restrictions remain in place.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Oneday there is going to be a big review when we can look back in hindsight. People will be asking what were the costs vs the benefits. The business collapses and the national debt vs the lives saved and Cindy rescuing her world leading status. The picture will be clearer than what we see right now in the midst of lockdowns

Seeing as NZ has fared better in both counts than most of the rest of the world both economically (GDP, unemployment, business collapses & National debt) and on health outcomes (Deaths per capita & vaccination rate achievements) I would say the current government very much will be rather happy with the results of any independent analysis of the last 18 months, especially when compared with international outcomes.

[Snoopy]

Even better when you consider that "lives saved" amounts to a couple of extra months of painful existence for the few unfortunates who were "taken too soon" by a flu.


[off topic mode]
What you are talking about is the concept of 'mortality displacement'. This is when a person dies of Covid-19 but in statistical terms would have likely died anyway from another pre-existing condition. While there are undoubtedly some cases that fall into this category, actual statistics to date show that the time lost for the average person who suffers a Covid-19 death is twelve years, not two months.

Covid-19 is a respiratory disease like the flu. But Covid-19 also finds its way to many other organs of the body, including the brain. The flu does not do that. So it is technically incorrect to describe Covid-19 as 'just a version of the flu'. Covid-19 is far more transmissible than the flu, around five times as lethal, and has unfortunate long term effects for some that have for the moment been cast under the heading 'long Covid'. These are very different characteristics compared to the flu virus. If you categorise Covid-19 as 'a flu', you could not be more wrong.
[/off topic mode]

This post is off topic so I will leave it there. Happy to debate any further points arising on the Coronavirus thread in the 'Off Market Discussion' forum.

SNOOPY

[peat]

Oneday there is going to be a big review when we can look back in hindsight. People will be asking what were the costs vs the benefits. The business collapses and the national debt vs the lives saved and Cindy rescuing her world leading status. The picture will be clearer than what we see right now in the midst of lockdowns

You are so right and off topic to WHS but its just so timely - this email/blogpost today from Michael Reddell

Quote
One of the (many) disillusioning aspects of the Covid response of the New Zealand government (politicians and public service) has been the apparent
s techniques to help inform thinking about policy responses. No cost-benefit analysis on any aspect of the policy response has ever been published (or hinted at)

https://wp.me/p5KFCd-haf

He acknowledges its (CBA) imperfections but still believes it has worth.

The point about cost-benefit analysis is not that using those techniques, or that way of thinking about the issue, will generate "the" right answer. On many of these things there is no "the" right answer. The merit lies in a combination of (a) forcing people to write down their assumptions, including which variables (even hard to estimate ones) should be relevant to a particular decision, and (b) then enabling users to get a sense of how much difference a different set of assumptions might make to the bottom line. Using the techniques facilitates disciplined thinking and transparency, the latter itself supporting scrutiny (especially important when such costly and often intrusive/restrictive decisions are involved.

[Snoopy]

You are so right and off topic to WHS but its just so timely - this email/blogpost today from Michael Reddell

Quote
One of the (many) disillusioning aspects of the Covid response of the New Zealand government (politicians and public service) has been the apparent
s techniques to help inform thinking about policy responses. No cost-benefit analysis on any aspect of the policy response has ever been published (or hinted at)

https://wp.me/p5KFCd-haf

He acknowledges its (CBA) imperfections but still believes it has worth.

The point about cost-benefit analysis is not that using those techniques, or that way of thinking about the issue, will generate "the" right answer. On many of these things there is no "the" right answer. The merit lies in a combination of (a) forcing people to write down their assumptions, including which variables (even hard to estimate ones) should be relevant to a particular decision, and (b) then enabling users to get a sense of how much difference a different set of assumptions might make to the bottom line. Using the techniques facilitates disciplined thinking and transparency, the latter itself supporting scrutiny (especially important when such costly and often intrusive/restrictive decisions are involved.



Good point about thinking of the situation analytically rather than be guided by gut reaction. The biggest assumption that I see for retail with 'lifting all restrictions' is that business will go back to some kind of 'normal' if we abolish restrictions and let Covid-19 circulate. Speaking for myself, I won't be going anywhere near retail if Covid starts circulating. I won't be cramming myself into any cafes with all tables filled either. I would restrict my retailing to a once a week early run to the supermarket and an visit to the open air vege stall and that would be it. Clothes shopping would go on line and I would buy all my clothing through local clothing manufacturers 'Cactus' and 'Ground Effect'. I would likely never set foot in any Warehouse group store ever again and I am sure there would be many others thinking the same way. How would that behaviour roll into the 'open for business' modelling?

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

This Beagle will be following a very similar course of action but very late evening visits to the supermarket when the numbers are at their very lowest. It might be many years before we go back to level 1 normality so I think companies with the very best online and delivery systems are better positioned.

[winner69]

Sounds like the huge initial catchup / recovery will be short lived and next year in retail could be rather subdued ….maybe going backwards

[Beagle]

Bounce-back last year happened when we were all enjoying the tremendous relief of going back to living in a safe Covid free environment.

This time is different, very different. Superb online systems are an absolute must going forward. I have only 4.8% of my portfolio in retail, all of it in HLG and I am not adding to my retail exposure.

[Waltzing]

"I would restrict my retailing to a once a week early run to the supermarket" or "Late run if your a Beagle". Though Beagles are usually early to bed and early to rise as a breed one thinks.

isnt that what everyone was thinking back in April last year... how time flys!!!

A lot of shops are empty in the central north island towns in the TW Zone... Those little shops such as Art Deco and Antiques shops will likely barely survive the summer if at all.

There is that french furniture shop in Bulls, wonder how that will do without traffic from auckland on the big summer trip to the south island and east coast. But imagine it sells mostly to local farms.

Update: Central North Island Level 2!!!

The Government has run out of money and you all need to go back to work and SPEND!!!

Looks like retail just got a big BOOST in the greater Waikato...

TW zone sun is OUT!!!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You giys are all overthinking this. Every other developed country in the world has endemic covid and retail has returned to either at or above pre-pandemic levels. New Zealand will not be any different, and in fact we will be better off with 90%+ vaccination rate (vs other countries who re-opened retail at much much lower rates). Yes some of the population will be more cautious, but most of the population are not, and those that are buying online will still be buying so it is not any sort of handbrake. Unemployment is at all time lows, people are flush with cash and no one is spending there discretionary income on overseas holidays. No better time to be selling discretionary products.

[Habits]

Yesterdays surprise of the day was the Fairy godmother waving her magic wand and declaring waikatos strict lockdown OVER. From inside its beehive castle the govt has heard the increasing cries from the normally silent majority and decided it has to be a govt for the people again.... before its too late. The govt is at full spin and Aucklands turn at freedom is surely coming before the end of this month

[arekaywhy]

... It might be many years before we go back to level 1 normality ...

Let's not forget that level 1 is not normal

I agree that most folks will act on their instinct that there is no real risk though, and their spending will at least lift retail profits. Folks I know are not really going to spend like it was their holiday money. Rather, they seem to by putting it aside for that holiday, instead of ticking it up like they used to and paying it off at 30% interest or whatever it is.

[winner69]

If property prices fall / tumble is there a reverse wealth effect on spending

[winner69]

I found this an interesting blog post about post lockdown spending in the UK

Britons squeamish to spend their savings are jeopardising our economic recovery
https://paulormerod.com/britons-squeamish-to-spend-their-savings-are-jeopardising-our-economic-recovery/

The economic recovery is under threat. British consumers are saving and not spending. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that during lockdown, households accumulated a massive £180bn of so-called “excess savings”.

Earlier in the year, most economic forecasts assumed that these would be run down. Lockdown had constrained people’s normal behaviour and with the removal of restrictions, spending would soar. In other words, there was pent up money ready to be spent.

This hasn’t happened. Indeed, individuals are continuing to save more than they did in the years just before the pandemic.

[BlackPeter]

If property prices fall / tumble is there a reverse wealth effect on spending

Are you sure this effect would hit the Warehouse the hardest? Maybe the BMW dealers need to watch out ...

[cymonger]

Thank you. Fear driven old men are hardly a good representative of New Zealand as a whole. The rest of the world has already provided us the template here. These guys are wrong so often it's hilarious they keep making more predictions...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I found this an interesting blog post about post lockdown spending in the UK

Britons squeamish to spend their savings are jeopardising our economic recovery
https://paulormerod.com/britons-squeamish-to-spend-their-savings-are-jeopardising-our-economic-recovery/

The economic recovery is under threat. British consumers are saving and not spending. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that during lockdown, households accumulated a massive £180bn of so-called “excess savings”.

Earlier in the year, most economic forecasts assumed that these would be run down. Lockdown had constrained people’s normal behaviour and with the removal of restrictions, spending would soar. In other words, there was pent up money ready to be spent.

This hasn’t happened. Indeed, individuals are continuing to save more than they did in the years just before the pandemic.

That article is quite simply incorrect in its assertion. Retail sales in Britain remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Higher savings and Higher Retail spending are not mutually exclusive.

The article tries to make the claim that people saving more is leading to lower retail sales, but the fact is people are saving more AND also spending more on retail (probably because they aren’t taking holidays etc, and with working from home are spending less on commuter related costs - including Fuel/parking/public transport fares/work lunches/coffees/drinks etc).

One last note: if Britain has experienced a vast reduction in household debt from higher savings, what is the common sense extrapolation for whether that is good or bad for retail spending in future from a much less indebted population?