WHS - Warehouse Group

[Greekwatchdog]

If they have to go into this then they need to do it boots and all. NZ'ers don't have time to fart around and shop around. Who wants to get something from WHS then go to another supermarket? Time is of the optimum in our lives.

[percy]

Percy - I heard you were the 'modest' one on this forum lol

Still am.
Never mentioned what our average cost price of PAZ shares are....lol
Or what our shareholdings are in either PAZ or SFF.

[percy]

If they have to go into this then they need to do it boots and all. NZ'ers don't have time to fart around and shop around. Who wants to get something from WHS then go to another supermarket? Time is of the optimum in our lives.

Even more so as a result of changing shopping patterns due to Covid.

[Muse]

Still am.
Never mentioned what our average cost price of PAZ shares are....lol
Or what our shareholdings are in either PAZ or SFF.

or how many dollars you have invested

[Beagle]

If they have to go into this then they need to do it boots and all. NZ'ers don't have time to fart around and shop around. Who wants to get something from WHS then go to another supermarket? Time is of the optimum in our lives.
There's a significant percentage of the population that need to get things at bargain prices. You might have heard the occasional news article suggesting we have a cost of living crisis ?

[Greekwatchdog]

There's a significant percentage of the population that need to get things at bargain prices. You might have heard the occasional news article suggesting we have a cost of living crisis ?

Yes Beagle, but then we have always had an issue as you see with people lining up for food parcels or grocery tickets so its not a new problem. Its just out there more as Govt on back foot and its become hot talking point. You actually think with WHS trying to step into the missing void its actually going to do something? There stuff they sell is no more cheaper than I get from my supermarket.

If people wanted to shop around today they can. There are Butchers,Fruit and Veg and Supermarkets. Take your pick. Time is the optimum as it always has been. You'll find you sped more going to several places instead of 1.

[percy]

There's a significant percentage of the population that need to get things at bargain prices. You might have heard the occasional news article suggesting we have a cost of living crisis ?

Just the cause you have been waiting for.
A new crusade lead by "the people's friend" Beagle...............What out The Greens.

[Beagle]

I would argue the cost of living crisis has never been this acute for the average low and middle income family. Just wait for 6% interest rates to kick in and then the "fun" will really start for those who borrowed at 2%. Mrs B tells me our local supermarket is increasing the prices every week so its hard to make price comparisons.

[Beagle]

.......................Deleted.

[couta1]

Just the cause you have been waiting for.
A new crusade lead by "the people's friend" Beagle...............What out The Greens. Does that crusade come with a protest at Parliament grounds? if so count me in. Lol

[CD_CHCH]

Visited our local Warehouse store yesterday to take advantage of their cheap milk - all sold out BUT tiny chiller so couldn't have had a lot to start with. I see stock availability as their big issue - it's all very well to have discounted milk, cheese, weetbix etc but if shoppers turn up to purchase these items and they aren't available will they return? As Percy rightly pointed out, it's often easier to just go to the supermarket and get everything in one place (assuming they also aren't out of stock) especially if visiting the Warehouse means you have to go out of your way for a special that may or may not be in stock.

Having said that, I do hope their foray into grocery items is a winner for them.

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes Mrs B is right. Can also say that about other areas that we deal with too. Next time I look at the roof of a WHS someone will have a cross on it.

Well those who were stupid to get into high debt and not think forward to 2/3 years time when interest change and what they can afford and not afford deserve no sympathy. What were their parents thinking when offering advice? If they haven't made cut backs on spending habits etc over last 2 years then you get what you deserve. No one said life is easy just we seem to want to wipe everyone's backside. I guess thats the dream/PC world we live in.
I often wonder why the RBNZ and Robertson thinking keeping it so low for so long? Short sited drop kicks.

But Grayson and WHS to the rescue.

[Beagle]

Not just mortgage holders who face issues. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/rents-spike-as-high-inflation-skyrocketing-cost-of-living-take-hold/ar-AAWAqtb?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4a828bdaa6ca4680a01d548030c26635

I get it that many people are insulated from the current cost of living crisis but I also get it that many people aren't. Its not just cheap milk, butter or cereal. People are downgrading from name brands to cheap house brands at consumer staples stores. Have a look at the share prices of Dollar General or the relative strength of Walmart in a declining US market.
Consumer staples are a great place to invest in tough times. You either get that or you don't and this is not for you which is fine.

[winner69]

.......................Deleted.

Pity, it was a pretty relevant post

[Beagle]

Pity, it was a pretty relevant post
The age old advice sprung to mind when it comes to forums, Don't feed the trolls !
I might actually get some work done this afternoon lol

[percy]

The age old advice sprung to mind when it comes to forums, Don't feed the trolls !
I might actually get some work done this afternoon lol

No fun with out you...lol.

[couta1]

No fun with out you...lol. Yep no fun fishing if the fish have gone off the bite, must look up the next predicted bite time.

[Beagle]

Interesting article. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-spinoff-what-its-like-fighting-new-zealands-supermarket-duopoly/ZQIAE2ORXFAKIHZX4U6MEVMJSE/

[percy]

Interesting article. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-spinoff-what-its-like-fighting-new-zealands-supermarket-duopoly/ZQIAE2ORXFAKIHZX4U6MEVMJSE/

Thought of joining them.?
Could donate your accounting skills free of charge.
Whoops not a good idea.
Most probably they are taking trade off WHS..

[Davexl]

Any one got their divvy yet ? Bloody banks earning extra interest or what?

[Beagle]

Any one got their divvy yet ? Bloody banks earning extra interest or what?

I've been sitting here all afternoon waiting lol https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=EW%2fezXle&id=FA65BB9BC99075C0972DE6AF223408B606346739&thid=OIP.EW_ezXleUPIs_SuzGzNRqwHaE8&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fd2gg9evh47fn9z.cloudfront.n et%2f800px_COLOURBOX37481993.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.116 fdecd795e50f22cfd2bb31b3351ab%3frik%3dOWc0BrYINCKv 5g%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=534&expw=800&q=beagle+sitting+beside+dog+bowl&simid=608007214391891222&FORM=IRPRST&ck=7735C9E1E74F765BEC3D2896ABB834F1&selectedIndex=8&qpvt=beagle+sitting+beside+dog+bowl&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[couta1]

Thought of joining them.?
Could donate your accounting skills free of charge.
Whoops not a good idea.
Most probably they are taking trade off WHS.. Beagle has been donating his accounting skills free of charge for many years on here. Shall we set up a give a little page? Okay I'm off to buy some milk from the WHS (I actually am)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Interesting article. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-spinoff-what-its-like-fighting-new-zealands-supermarket-duopoly/ZQIAE2ORXFAKIHZX4U6MEVMJSE/

Sounds great - but I think the writer hit the nail on the head when he said it all sounds a bit like a theranos type hype machine, with all the talk of “exclusive tech” in the grocery storage warehouse, and wanting to be “the Netflix of Grocery”. The CEO is pulling out all the CEO hero tropes (The Bezos style desks made out of a door and trestles, the Elon musk style “sleeping on the floor/in the car”).

Now that is not to say it isnt a great business, but at present based on that one article it raises a couple of red flags.

[Grimy]

My wife has had her payment advice, but not the money yet. I've had neither.......

[Beagle]

Sounds great - but I think the writer hit the nail on the head when he said it all sounds a bit like a theranos type hype machine, with all the talk of “exclusive tech” in the grocery storage warehouse, and wanting to be “the Netflix of Grocery”. The CEO is pulling out all the CEO hero tropes (The Bezos style desks made out of a door and trestles, the Elon musk style “sleeping on the floor/in the car”).

Now that is not to say it isnt a great business, but at present based on that one article it raises a couple of red flags.

I wouldn't invest in it because they don't have scale and early high risk start up's are not for me but WHS does have scale and can relatively easily tweak their business model.

Hope my dividend arrives soon, don't want to go hungry for dinner lol

[Grimy]

In the account at 5.10pm. That's the wife's. Still nothing in my account.

[Beagle]

In the account at 5.10pm

Same, huge dividend feed arrived at 5.10 just in time for dinner. Better take a cautious approach to eating that massive feed otherwise...lol
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=W%2bjU5BS9&id=C1B1E0421C51E9DEB1C3328ED1CA43B2BB8BA764&thid=OIP.W-jU5BS9sVtLgiv2vg9lcgHaJ4&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.chicagotribune.com%2fre sizer%2fDgjXazjOdHW6gv9j75f6V35zcQc%3d%2f1200x1600 %2ftop%2farc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com%2fpublic%2fN2ZKEBPOYZBQHI24 F23QQQNRHQ.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.5be 8d4e414bdb15b4b822bf6be0f6572%3frik%3dZKeLu7JDytGO Mg%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=1600&expw=1200&q=fat+beagle&simid=608035793104347341&FORM=IRPRST&ck=53D5425BBC6DA8B38A5D3481D480B1B7&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[BlackPeter]

Same, huge dividend feed arrived at 5.10 just in time for dinner. Better take a cautious approach to eating that massive feed otherwise...lol
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=W%2bjU5BS9&id=C1B1E0421C51E9DEB1C3328ED1CA43B2BB8BA764&thid=OIP.W-jU5BS9sVtLgiv2vg9lcgHaJ4&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.chicagotribune.com%2fre sizer%2fDgjXazjOdHW6gv9j75f6V35zcQc%3d%2f1200x1600 %2ftop%2farc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com%2fpublic%2fN2ZKEBPOYZBQHI24 F23QQQNRHQ.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.5be 8d4e414bdb15b4b822bf6be0f6572%3frik%3dZKeLu7JDytGO Mg%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=1600&expw=1200&q=fat+beagle&simid=608035793104347341&FORM=IRPRST&ck=53D5425BBC6DA8B38A5D3481D480B1B7&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

You guys are clearly privileged ...

My payment arrived at 5:39pm; Maybe my surname too complicated for the sytem or my bank too slow. Anyway - all good ....

[Grimy]

You guys are clearly privileged ...

My payment arrived at 5:39pm; Maybe my surname too complicated for the sytem or my bank too slow. Anyway - all good ....

ANZ? That's when mine arrived too. Wife is with BNZ - 20 minutes earlier.

[waikare]

With Jarden Securities (Direct Broking) just checked a few minutes ago, not there as yet.

[Beagle]

Well I'm having a drink and reflecting on a solid dividend in what has been extraordinary circumstances this first half. I'm really looking forward to the size of future dividends when the performance of the group is unhindered by lockdowns and Covid.

Who knows, when the Covid drama's finally settles down we might get a very special dividend from their $150m cash on hand, Cheers :t_up:

[winner69]

WHS to enter NZX50 this week

wow …cool ….excellent

[winner69]

Heaps of buying coming up as WHS joins NZ50

Share price get to 4 bucks soon?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

But I remember everyone explaining to me recently why WHS wouldn’t qualify for NZ50 inclusion because of (insert BS reasons)

[winner69]

But I remember everyone explaining to me recently why WHS wouldn’t qualify for NZ50 inclusion because of (insert BS reasons)

Sometimes too much knowledge is a dangerous thing eh?

[BlackPeter]

ANZ? That's when mine arrived too. Wife is with BNZ - 20 minutes earlier.

Interesting, and yes, it is ANZ.

[winner69]

WHS to enter NZX50 this week

wow …cool ….excellent

Just bringing it to the top again

Great news

[BlackPeter]

Just bringing it to the top again

Great news

just a wish, hope, rumour - or is there any announcement you could share?

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;953505]just a wish, hope, rumour - or is there any announcement you could share?[/QUOTE


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/391028/369286.pdf

[percy]

That should see WHS share price up on what I expect will be a down day.

[couta1]

That should see WHS share price up on what I expect will be a down day. Should be a whole lot of barking going on today then.

[BlackPeter]

just a wish, hope, rumour - or is there any announcement you could share?



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/391028/369286.pdf

cheers ...

[Habits]

Up 12 cents, 3.8 percent and good volume 150k of shares. One of the bigger fish wants ordering brunch.

[Waltzing]

yes smashing up.. MR B has picked it again.

Looks like a hedge against inflation. Who would have though. A tangle mess of ADMIN and software and the stock is up.

[Beagle]

WHS to enter NZX50 this week

wow …cool ….excellent

Fabulous news. Congratulations to all holders.

Consumer staples are a great place to invest in tough times.

The metrics are compelling as I've pointed out at great length and consumer staples companies like Dollar General and Walmart have been doing well overseas and are on vastly higher metrics than WHS.

On our way back to $4+ in due course.

[Waltzing]

"On our way back to $4+ in due course."

does that mean it now gone from a HOLD to a Accumulate fast on the DIP... if there is one.

who isnt holding some staples.

BRISC could also just squeeze into it a bit.

[Beagle]

"On our way back to $4+ in due course."

does that mean it now gone from a HOLD to a Accumulate fast on the DIP... if there is one.

BUY before all the index funds have too in the closing match process tomorrow afternoon and the $2 Billion gets reinvested back into the market from the ZEL takeover on 10 May.

[winner69]

BUY before all the index funds have too in the closing match process tomorrow afternoon and the $2 Billion gets reinvested back into the market from the ZEL takeover on 10 May.

Yep, good advice

Get in before thevrush

What do they say about the early bird

[Waltzing]

its gone already.... left the rocket ship blast off pad...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6yBwQSrtFY

[Habits]

If I am not mistaken waltzing is asking you to wait while he and assoc are loading the truck and trailer unit.

[Beagle]

If I am not mistaken waltzing is asking you to wait while he and assoc are loading the truck and trailer unit.

LOL I was just thinking the same. Its not gone already the average analyst price target is $3.70 and the average analyst rating is BUY and the current share price pending NZX50 inclusion, (closing 15 minute match process tomorrow afternoon), and $2 Billion of reinvestment of ZEL takeover funds, (10 May), is just $3.45. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/

Fortunately my truck and trailer are fully loaded up already at $3.09...might even get a fine from the police for an overweight rig if I was stopped on the road LOL

[Waltzing]

Defence stocks and travel are on the list.

AVG 316.5 :cool:

just applauding the result in a very difficult transition for WHS Group.

Not convinced that T7 is a turn around. How much does T7 get from china and those margins for T7 are nothing much.

cant see them rolling out staples much farther and those car parks are small in rural towns.

Motorway in south is going to flood those towns and there is no spaces left in the CBD's.

They may have to expand into more than one site in towns where there existing car parks cant cope.

There are empty buildings and car parks like Bunnings have left empty in one rural fast growing town south of hamilton that is exploding.

Surprised GMT or someone hasnt nabbed the site.

[Beagle]

Defence stocks and travel are on the list.

AVG 316.5

Do you like Raytheon ? https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RAYTHEON-TECHNOLOGIES-COR-4840/consensus/

Sorry for off topic question folks.

[Habits]

Well done B, sold for 4 and bought for 3

We are about half of what we had with whs and no spare cash to buy right now. Offloaded some HLG two weeks ago when needed some pocket money which turned out to be the right choice.

[winner69]

Nick will dither about and will buy some more at $4.11 ......and still be getting a bargain

[Beagle]

Well done B, sold for 4 and bought for 3

We are about half of what we had with whs and no spare cash to buy right now. Offloaded some HLG two weeks ago when needed some pocket money which turned out to be the right choice.

Thanks mate, much appreciated.

[Waltzing]

"Do you like Raytheon "

Note: Off Topic.

all defence stocks will be on Higher P/E than WHS one expects pretty soon.

[Joshuatree]

its gone already.... left the rocket ship blast off pad...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6yBwQSrtFY

Jolly good show chaps.Its the holding WHS that's worked for me ,not trading and paying tax on profits.
Perfect storm atm for WHS ,they are selling out of Squish pillows as soon as new stocks come in:t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

With Z getting a formal takeover offer today - WHS must be in the mix to replace it as a NZX50 constituent?

any arguments for/against inclusion now that foodstuffs has sold down it’s stake?

As foretold 8 months ago

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well I shorted into those buying in the upper 340's.

[Joshuatree]

Jolly good show chaps.Its the holding WHS that's worked for me ,not trading and paying tax on profits.
Perfect storm atm for WHS ,they are selling out of Squish pillows as soon as new stocks come in:t_up:

https://sg.docworkspace.com/d/sABIjZvr_m8d36s3VzaynFA

[Waltzing]

"Squish pillows"

does that mean BRSIC will be selling lots of pillows too?

hope so...

[Joshuatree]

Squishmallows ,sorry check above sold out ,link

[Waltzing]

Office Topic: MR B ..

post on Geo Risk re Raytheon..

[bull....]

another competitor entering the market

Amazon-like Australian retailer Winning Group expands into NZ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/amazon-like-australian-retailer-winning-group-expands-into-nz/RPQQMRJHWLVJAU5HYK6LLUTTGM/

looks like they could eat into noel leeming more than the warehouse?

[Entrep]

another competitor entering the market

Amazon-like Australian retailer Winning Group expands into NZ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/amazon-like-australian-retailer-winning-group-expands-into-nz/RPQQMRJHWLVJAU5HYK6LLUTTGM/

looks like they could eat into noel leeming more than the warehouse?

Never heard of them, including when I lived in Oz.

[Greekwatchdog]

another competitor entering the market

Amazon-like Australian retailer Winning Group expands into NZ


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/amazon-like-australian-retailer-winning-group-expands-into-nz/RPQQMRJHWLVJAU5HYK6LLUTTGM/

looks like they could eat into noel leeming more than the warehouse?

I would have thought BGR would be in the firing line as well with small appliance's. Seems NZ is going to get real competition in several retail sectors. Where's Nick and Rod to show the path forward for shareholders I wonder? Has their respective jobs just got much more complicated?

[winner69]

Never heard of them, including when I lived in Oz.

Obviously not a household name then

[bull....]

Never heard of them, including when I lived in Oz.

what the company been around 115 yrs

Winning Group brings world-class distribution centre and third-party logistics service to NZ
https://theregister.co.nz/2021/07/13/auckland-welcomes-unique-world-class-distribution-centre-and-third-party-logistics-service/

[Beagle]

Spending chugging along nicely despite Omricon. https://theregister.co.nz/2022/04/20/kiwis-spend-over-400-million-over-long-easter-weekend/

[Waltzing]

Are we seeing the lasting effect of debt GDP brought forward? This is the effect one would expect and its a matter of how long it will last against the head winds of inflation.

Probably not a case of going over weight on retail but still maintaining a balanced exposure.

Big Indian summer and will this be the new weather pattern lasting into may? Should boast summer retail spending for an extra month or two!

Weekend trips to coastal resort centres look like they have a few more weeks to run yet!

Paradise!

[Waltzing]

Power along this afternoon no stopping a freight train.

1.7 million shares traded and counting.

[Muse]

Power along this afternoon no stopping a freight train.

1.7 million shares traded and counting.

the glorious index inclusion 'tight squeeze' - supply & demand at its finest. makes me recall the price movements from those gentailers that got included in the MCI green index early last year. that was awesome & heaven for traders.

[Beagle]

Closing 15 minute match process coming up could be interesting !

[Waltzing]

corrected 1.4 million.

what a day in paradise... T7 must be busy selling paddle boards and beach gear. Do they have anything left in stock?

big closing shaping up as inflation believers are selling.

[Beagle]

WOW - that was a lot of fun, up 17 cents for the day, (more than 8.5 million shares traded), and up 32 cents (10%) since NZX50 inclusion was announced.

[Waltzing]

Stunner of a days trading!

[see weed]

Closing 15 minute match process coming up could be interesting !
Was that you Beagle buying up a million shares on close;). If it carries on at this rate we might hit $4 by next week:).

[Ferg]

Nice call Beagle on the index inclusion.

[Beagle]

Thanks Ferg.

Hope other holders will join me in a celebratory drink. Cheers :t_up:

[Davexl]

Got a wine on the desk as we speak...

[Habits]

It's gone already

Waltzing please enjoy your dinner tonight eating your hat smothered in T sauce.:D

[Beagle]

Got a wine on the desk as we speak...

Good on you mate.
I have Somersby Apple Cider with a taste of Pear. Very nice drink, not too sweet like some Ciders. Hopefully Mrs B cooks the crayfish to perfection.

[see weed]

Good on you mate.
I have Somersby Apple Cider with a taste of Pear. Very nice drink, not too sweet like some Ciders. Hopefully Mrs B cooks the crayfish to perfection.
That sounds good, but sorry, can't make it tonight, got to go to West Coast Swing practice later on:D maybe a drink later.

[Waltzing]

" hat smothered in T sauce"

think we agreed it "gone already"

Ave price 3.16... to late to add to it now unless some extreme event crashes the market for a day or 2.

Mr B got 3.09, doubt he needs to get anymore. Usually executes like a Beagle after the fox.

All we might hear is the barking in the distance...over yonder hill.

looking more at travel and stocks like Boeing.

Its got to be a turn around sometime.

At some point people will want to travel again. Local agents are now back at work 5 days a week where 6 months ago they were only on 2 days a week.

Travel has restarted in NZ.

[Habits]

The purchasers of 5.644m shares today probably think otherwise. At current div yield there should be upside from here. That's where I will hang my hat Waltzing :p

[Waltzing]

nzx 50 means there will be portfolios that need shares.

[Beagle]

The purchasers of 5.644m shares today probably think otherwise. At current div yield there should be upside from here. That's where I will hang my hat Waltzing :p


nzx 50 means there will be portfolios that need shares.

Average dividend forecast for FY23 and FY24 is 24.5 cps fully imputed, 24.5 / 0.72 = 34.02 cps gross. Even after the recent rally that's 34.02 / 352 = 9.66% gross forecast yield. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/
What follows is a complete list of companies on the NZX with a proven history of dividend payments with a higher yield based on their current share price.
.
.
.
.
.
:)
$2 Billion of funds from the takeover of ZEL are yet to be reinvested into the market, paid out on or about 10 May
I wonder where the yield hungry investors in ZEL, (it was only ever a yield story being a sunset industry), will invest some of their funds :t_up:

[Waltzing]

ok its possible , its believable.

[nztx]

One thing that is missed is Z pre Ampol had a pretty good Div Yield - something that not a lot of
other listed companies could get near - WHS would be one. HLG another, or was, or maybe
still could be - who knows ? :)

[oldtech]

Average dividend forecast for FY23 and FY24 is 24.5 cps fully imputed, 24.5 / 0.72 = 34.02 cps gross. Even after the recent rally that's 34.02 / 352 = 9.66% gross forecast yield. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/consensus/


Genuine question - does the Marketscreener forecast include an expectation that the dividends will be fully imputed? It's just I can't see where it states that (but then my eyes are old and dim ...)

[Waltzing]

SP handles might move more slowly than some expect because of margin compression and inflation fires.

Notice that competition is increasing but mostly in the Auckland region.

FOMO might drive it higher but often these stock do not go up in one big move.

Last time a big takeover payout turned up some were expecting OCA to fire up and that happened?

It could go all over the world via brokers and that NZ investors can now buy part shares all over the world from hatch and others.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Yesterdays close was the time to unload positions IMO. Look at the state of the economy... consumer spending is surely going to absolutely plummet. T7 and NL will be especially hit hard.

[Beagle]

Genuine question - does the Marketscreener forecast include an expectation that the dividends will be fully imputed? It's just I can't see where it states that (but then my eyes are old and dim ...)

No it doesn't, the figures stated on there are the average analyst expectations of dividends that will be declared. The WHS group earns all its income in N.Z. so there's no reason why their dividends wouldn't be fully imputed in the future. Hope that helps.

We know you are short Johnny the horse (in the late 340's from memory) so are trying to talk the shares down so you don't lose money.
Michael Hill recently announced sales numbers that really surprised and were reasonably strong in N.Z.. I think you might be surprised by the strength of retail spending too.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

No it doesn't, the figures stated on there are the average analyst expectations of dividends that will be declared. The WHS group earns all its income in N.Z. so there's no reason why their dividends wouldn't be fully imputed in the future. Hope that helps.

We know you are short Johnny the horse (in the late 340's from memory) so are trying to talk the shares down so you don't lose money.
Michael Hill recently announced sales numbers that really surprised and were reasonably strong in N.Z.. I think you might be surprised by the strength of retail spending too.

Covered at 338 and short again, so sitting very comfortably with the cushion of the previous trade ;)

[oldtech]

No it doesn't, the figures stated on there are the average analyst expectations of dividends that will be declared. The WHS group earns all its income in N.Z. so there's no reason why their dividends wouldn't be fully imputed in the future. Hope that helps.

It does indeed, thanks Beagle.

[couta1]

Covered at 338 and short again, so sitting very comfortably with the cushion of the previous trade ;) I'd like to here about some of you guys failures not just all the successes or perhaps you don't take enough risks to have any meaningful fails? I'm all ears in anticipation.

[Beagle]

It does indeed, thanks Beagle.

You're welcome. The maths to gross up dividends to the fully imputed level is multiply the dividend by 1.389 or divide it by 0.72 to get a slightly more accurate gross dividend number.

JTH - I was really surprised by the strength of Noel Leeming sales in the recent half year report considering the wider Auckland region of about 1.7m people was in lockdown for 107 days and the ongoing effect of the Covid crisis on the rest of N.Z. their sales were remarkably strong. I thought they would have been weaker as all the nesting expenditure was supposed to have been done in previous periods. I think both you and I will be surprised again going forward and mine will be a happy surprise ;)

[Waltzing]

"Michael Hill recently announced sales numbers that really surprised"

canary in the coal mine...

and who has time to actual go to an office these days as shopping and beach are prime locations ATM.

WHS back to normal volumes Plus some INSTO allocations?

should slow the SP rise down.

[Beagle]

No worries... I am sure Johnny the Racehorse, (certainly this old Beagle wouldn't try and keep up with his speed), and has probably closed out his latest short already.

Business as usual at the hare-house.

[Muse]

No it doesn't, the figures stated on there are the average analyst expectations of dividends that will be declared. The WHS group earns all its income in N.Z. so there's no reason why their dividends wouldn't be fully imputed in the future. Hope that helps.

We know you are short Johnny the horse (in the late 340's from memory) so are trying to talk the shares down so you don't lose money.
Michael Hill recently announced sales numbers that really surprised and were reasonably strong in N.Z.. I think you might be surprised by the strength of retail spending too.

yo beagle - you don't see any risk of a broker EPS downgrade cycle? you are obviously aware of upgrade/downgrade cycles as you noted them last year when it was in an EPS upgrade cycle & your observations that the EPS/DPS estimates would continue to be rated upwords.

According to that marketscreener, FY22 EPS started out this calendar year at 0.37 per share and now at 0.29. (NB marketscreener only record 2 analyst EPS estimates & 3 DPS estimates. Its covered by 5 investment banks and 6 analysts if you include shareclarity)

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/THE-WAREHOUSE-GROUP-LIMIT-6491364/revisions/

I just thought with all the consumer confidence pessimism, diabolical retailer profit expectations from recent surverys, the poor department store & clothing sales being recorded by Datamine Retail Watch and Payscale that it would weigh on broker sentiment when they go on to update their forecasts (and earnings when released)? Things certainly seemed to have deteriorated since the 1H release, no? Jarden - your favourite analyst - seem to be gearing up for downgrades given the macro research they released on their estimates of rapidly declining consumer spending. Isn't it responsible to assume that would feature in their next research report, and other brokers could do something similar? Does the consensus coming out of marketscreener remain a valid baseline given some of the negative changes that have occurred when the forecasts were made?

Even ignoring any changes to broker earnings forecasts - I would have thought TP's could be downgraded the next time they issue a report given the risk free rate (10 year gov bond) has risen 45bps since they prepared their reports on 22 March - and don't seem to be slowing down.

[percy]

A year ago a NZ $ was worth 73 cents US.Today 65 cents US.
So imports will cost WHS and all importers more.
Good for exporters however.

[Beagle]

Must be a very slow day for you to bring all that up again Fiordland Moose. Be a good chap and please go and do some research on how consumer staples perform in tougher economic times. Check out how Dollar general and Walmart are performing on the US markets this year compared to a very weak US market overall. YAWN...

[Muse]

Must be a very slow day for you to bring all that up again Fiordland Moose. Be a good chap and please go and do some research on how consumer staples perform in tougher economic times. Check out how Dollar general and Walmart are performing on the US markets this year compared to a very weak US market overall. YAWN...

it's an honest question

re staples, I have thank-you.

I wouldn't have thought Noel Leeming, TP7 or bluesheds qualify, and they make up a rather large part of the group earnings. which you know.

[Waltzing]

Not sure the country is in a deep enough recession to slow beach goers and appliances hunters because lets face it those Russel Hobbs products are now having to replaced more often as they are made in where?

And they dont last very long...unless your the lucky one in a hundred.

Dont expect T7 to fall off a cliff and most of the gross profit did not come from that division.

[Snow Leopard]

it's an honest question

re staples, I have thank-you.

I wouldn't have thought Noel Leeming, TP7 or bluesheds qualify, and they make up a rather large part of the group earnings. which you know.

You have to remember that the BBB ( Beagle Blinded Barking ) rating for this stock is currently Blinded Love* and a potential sale of a tin of tomatoes will more than offset the loss of 5 LCD TVs and a Surfboard.

[pierre]

Just back from a visit to my local New World where they are certainly taking notice of the The Warehouse's return to the grocery market. I was amused to see Weetbix on special (limit 12!) at $4.89 vs The Warehouse price of $5.

Not much help to me though - I have to buy the cholesterol-lowering version and get half the quantity at about $8 - heading towards twice the price.

Oh well, helps keep me off the statins!

[Beagle]

I am too fat, well fed and watered, lazy and sleepy to be bothered with circular debates this afternoon that have been well chewed over already.

[Waltzing]

The close today says it all.

Some strong buying in GMT and lessor extent ARG.

Not so much WHS.

[Beagle]

it's an honest question

re staples, I have thank-you.

I wouldn't have thought Noel Leeming, TP7 or bluesheds qualify, and they make up a rather large part of the group earnings. which you know.

Woken up from my long Friday lunch now. As an aside don't you just love long Friday lunches with old clients you've known for decades who also become old friends !

Your earlier question is almost an exact replica of the same question and points you've asked and raised before but I will indulge you with a proper answer one last time.

Noel Leeming is the crown Jewel of the group...sales just keep trucking along come what may.
Consumer staples by definition, (look it up on Investopedia) includes household goods.
If your washing machine, dryer, fridge, freezer, T.V. computer, phone or whatever other appliance dies are you going to go out and replace it straight away, of course you are.
For the same reason Briscoes which sells different sorts of household good is doing well.
Consumer discretionary is that fancy new ski jacket from Kathmandu for $500 or that new $1,000 gold watch from Michael Hill or that first class trip on holiday to Switzerland or that new Electric Car when your current one is just fine.

Torpedo 7 is small part of the group and is mainly what I would classify as consumer discretionary but people are embracing the great outdoors like never before so their e-bikes and camping equipment will truck along just fine. A lot of the blue sheds are being incorporated store within a store to Red sheds but you never talk about the store footprint efficiencies because I would suggest you are simply biased towards retail and people see what they choose to see.

I'm not pretending that second half WHS sales are going to set the world on fire mate but we'll get through this Covid mess and come out the other side eventually. WHS trades on a very low PE based on what I would argue are trough year earnings, (107 day lockdown for 1.7m people remember that late last year which is in the current year FY22 earnings and won't be next year).
Better times are coming in the years ahead when there are no lockdowns so the natural lapping of years when there were lockdowns itself gives the group a boost and in the meantime there's close to a 10% gross yield to enjoy.

Can you please post a full list of NZX 50 stocks that are paying a higher gross yield than 9.7% :p

Contrary to your "the retail world is ending" very repetitive theme that's getting really old, really fast, it isn't. Sure some discretionary spend will be pulled back, (I doubt the Beagles will be having that first class holiday to Switzerland anytime soon), but spending on consumer staples will continue on trucking along like they always have and always will.

[Muse]

.point made & removed.

[Bob50]

Beagle was positive on this stock some time ago- the market agreed with him and it increased in value. Then he changed his tune and turned negative- market again followed his prediction and share price lowered a good dollar. Then recently he evolved his thoughts on new information and again became positive on it and again share price has improved.


Say/think what you will about Beagle but you can’t deny he’s nailed 3 out of 3 for major stock price movements on this stock and that’s quite impressive.

[Beagle]

Beagle was positive on this stock some time ago- the market agreed with him and it increased in value. Then he changed his tune and turned negative- market again followed his prediction and share price lowered a good dollar. Then recently he evolved his thoughts on new information and again became positive on it and again share price has improved.


Say/think what you will about Beagle but you can’t deny he’s nailed 3 out of 3 for major stock price movements on this stock and that’s quite impressive.



Thanks Bob, much appreciated.

[warthog]

Seeing as you mention it, anyone telling you that cholesterol is bad are either ignorant or lying to you. Just ignore cholesterol levels, stay off those statins, and substantially reduce carbohydrates except those that come with fibre.

[Panda-NZ-]

Olive oil has gone from $6 for 1L to $10 at WHS, an 80% increase.

Might have to source the life giving nectar from elsewhere.

[couta1]

Seeing as you mention it, anyone telling you that cholesterol is bad are either ignorant or lying to you. Just ignore cholesterol levels, stay off those statins, and substantially reduce carbohydrates except those that come with fibre. Two thirds of your Cholesterol cant be altered by diet(Its genetic) the other third can be altered with a combination of diet and exercise or medication if need be, Triglyceride levels are the more important thing to worry about IMO.

[winner69]

LEK said this on the retail thread

Kiwis are holding a record amount of cash. Once consumers get over their pessimism and realize no one is losing their jobs, there probably will be another massive splurge.


All good for the WHS group stores ..... those struggling a bit with nothing 'hoarded' are catered for and a certain percentage of the cash
rich will be heading the WHS way

[Waltzing]

There might be some market shocks coming this winter and buying oppo's.

The rich will be looking to HIDE there coin as the government passes the new version of the DOOMS day BOOK.

Rich dont shop at WHS anyway.

Never seen so many Range Rovers out about today in the central WakaToo.

[winner69]

Twitter - Warehouse Stationery on Willis is closing down. Sad for the staff. But great deals.

Probably going to take a bit of space in nearby Tory St ….and hope offices / customers go online.

Whatever that’s one bit of overhead gone.

[warthog]

Two thirds of your Cholesterol cant be altered by diet(Its genetic) the other third can be altered with a combination of diet and exercise or medication if need be, Triglyceride levels are the more important thing to worry about IMO.

Totally agree, and would add that for the most part cholesterol can just be ignored. High levels of cholesterol are positively correlated with lower mortality in older age cohorts which while doesn't establish any causative relationship, at least pretty much confirms that cholesterol as it is considered by our health "experts" is much more benign than we're told, and may even have a positive contribution to lower death.

[Waltzing]

off topic; health experts.

one took a holiday and flew to Thailand in late jan 2020. Wash your hands he said.

Think he just got home recently..

Experts.....

[Rawz]

Are gold bracelets under $100 a consumer staple?

I would argue yes when you are looking at $1000 previous

Waltz? MHJ a buy when it holds $100m cash on the balance sheet.

Experts..

[couta1]

Beagle was positive on this stock some time ago- the market agreed with him and it increased in value. Then he changed his tune and turned negative- market again followed his prediction and share price lowered a good dollar. Then recently he evolved his thoughts on new information and again became positive on it and again share price has improved.


Say/think what you will about Beagle but you can’t deny he’s nailed 3 out of 3 for major stock price movements on this stock and that’s quite impressive.

What you have described are the workings of a pure momentum trader, there are plenty of very successful Investors on here but you would never know how successful they are or have been because they rarely talk about it.

[Greekwatchdog]

What you have described are the workings of a pure momentum trader, there are plenty of very successful Investors on here but you would never know how successful they are or have been because they rarely talk about it.

Exactly, Anyway its Sunday a day for peace and tranquility.

[Old mate]

Warehouse advertising 2l milk for 3$ alot on Instagram.

[Waltzing]

"3 out of 3 for major stock price movements"

Hes nailed many more than that.

If you set up your entities in different country's and create a generic back end you can parse transaction data from the sources creating a generic database.


From there you can move on to be both an investor and a trader across multiple entities and country's.

[blackie]

What you have described are the workings of a pure momentum trader, there are plenty of very successful Investors on here but you would never know how successful they are or have been because they rarely talk about it.

axe grinding kits are on special at my local store...

[couta1]

axe grinding kits are on special at my local store... Are they? well I suggest you buy one for yourself then, my axe is already very sharp.

[RupertBear]

axe grinding kits are on special at my local store...

Naaa...Couta is not at fault here.

Couta has had to put up with relentless digs by Beagle over his investments for quite some time. I would have had a guts full of it ages ago.

I thought Fiordland Moose raised some very valid points in his recent posts but for some reason they have been taken down which is a shame

Anyway I hope everyone is having a lovely Sunday :)

[Beagle]

New episodes of the fourth and final season of Ozark have just been released on Netflix. All the fighting and arguing you need for at least the next few weeks are on there lol

I get it, some people prefer a cat over a dog and good news, WHS has some great cat food specials this week. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/food-pets-household/pet-care and don't forget Mothers day next Sunday, lots of inexpensive ways to show love and peace at WHS https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/c/mothers-day

[winner69]

Bad year so far on S&P500 except Energy sector …

…Consumer Staples up a bit with all other sectors down

From Guru Mark at Craigs

[Beagle]

Bad year so far on S&P500 except Energy sector …

…Consumer Staples up a bit with all other sectors down

From Guru Mark at Craigs

Thank you mate, that's an excellent contribution to this thread and helping others understand what's working and all the things that aren't working this year. I think 2022 is going to be a very tough year for the market so I will stick with what's working and might have a cull of things that aren't.

[Waltzing]

look for supplements at the WHS on line shopping? does it have any, Iodine tables on the list and Vita C with Iron.

:ohmy:

[Baa_Baa]

Bad year so far on S&P500 except Energy sector …

…Consumer Staples up a bit with all other sectors down

From Guru Mark at Craigs

It's also a forecast of where the best returns are when the tide turns next time, and which won't.

[Beagle]

Might be a very, very long time before the next change of tide.

[Waltzing]

WHS CEO.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/128327507/the-monitor-economy-qa-the-warehouse-group-ceo-nick-grayston

[winner69]

WHS CEO.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/128327507/the-monitor-economy-qa-the-warehouse-group-ceo-nick-grayston

What is Nick most worried about?

Not Beagle asking tough questions at the ASM .... or making sure Beagles dividend grows at a great rate

Its CLIMATE CHANGE

[winner69]

Hope Nick having a few conversations with his marketing and IT gurus about what insights they are getting out their walled garden.

With iOS privacy changes and the loss of third-party cookies, the value of walled gardens is going up.

WHS need to stay ahead of the game ....Walmart are into it in a big way

[winner69]

Quarterly sales out next week

Should be pretty solid numbers …..esp after what LEK posted re Easter period.

[Beagle]

Omricon peak was last quarter so I'm expecting some impact from that but looking forward, dividend hounds are very well positioned !

[winner69]

Omricon peak was last quarter so I'm expecting some impact from that but looking forward, dividend hounds are very well positioned !

Even if sales not great v last year they’ll play the 10% higher than 2019 trick

Só all hunky dory then.

[Waltzing]

Its turning into a stagflation future and thats a trading stock pickers market.

who wants to spend 6 dollars on coffee or you can buy a share with that.

Those old thermos's with some instant in it might be coming back as inflation wild fires break out and reserve banks panic.

[Beagle]

Even if sales not great v last year they’ll play the 10% higher than 2019 trick

Só all hunky dory then.

I am really comfortable with my holding in the WHS with its staples and affordable brands. People are choosing more affordable brands https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/128533991/people-opting-for-cheaper-brands-reducing-power-usage-but-wont-ditch-netflix-subscription-as-cost-of-living-bites

[Waltzing]

"People are choosing more affordable brands"

as ANZ noted in there consumer comments this morning with their half year results belts are tightening.

Beagles, must be reason why they are hunting ahead of the pack.

[winner69]

I am really comfortable with my holding in the WHS with its staples and affordable brands. People are choosing more affordable brands https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/128533991/people-opting-for-cheaper-brands-reducing-power-usage-but-wont-ditch-netflix-subscription-as-cost-of-living-bites

Don’t forget the ‘trading down’ market is twice thecsize of ‘trading up’ market …and ‘trading down’ growing fast

[Waltzing]

that rally in SP fizzled.....

[winner69]

JB HiFi NZ sales in March quarter up 4.8% on last year

Means Noel Leeming sales were up more than 5% in same period ....maybe even 8%/10%

That bodes well for WHS ---- jewel in the crown performing well

[couta1]

that rally in SP fizzled..... Might need a bit more barking up. Lol

[Beagle]

JB HiFi NZ sales in March quarter up 4.8% on last year

Means Noel Leeming sales were up more than 5% in same period ....maybe even 8%/10%

That bodes well for WHS ---- jewel in the crown performing well

Very encouraging, thanks for sharing.

[Habits]

that rally in SP fizzled.....

Yep quite a downer, there was more "sizzle" at the bunnings barbie yet somehow both leave you with a bad feeling

[Beagle]

Patience is required.

[Waltzing]

well CNBC europe is awash with stagflation talk as apparently 10year above 3 means the terror of reserve banks is back.

But will staples see investors through. If STAGA NATION is here then perhaps MR B has been very very far sighted indeed.

With low employment a case of the STAGA's would take a while to arrive.

Pay rises to come for sure and staples maybe the place to hide.

[Bob50]

What is the Australian equivalent of The Warehouse? Where they affected by the arrival of Costco into Australia?

[nztx]

well CNBC europe is awash with stagflation talk as apparently 10year above 3 means the terror of reserve banks is back.

But will staples see investors through. If STAGA NATION is here then perhaps MR B has been very very far sighted indeed.

With low employment a case of the STAGA's would take a while to arrive.

Pay rises to come for sure and staples maybe the place to hide.


low employment or low unemployment ? :)

[nztx]

Patience is required.


I'll "Warehouse that" too :)

[Waltzing]

yes low "unemployment"

[winner69]

WHS top of the leaderboard today

Retail seemed to be in favour today ….was it Briscoes sales update?

Briscoes said quarter sales up 18% on same period in F19 …..I reckon WHS sales will be up 22% on same basis

Might see another good day for retail ….WHS up to $3.60

[Waltzing]

yes the Bris report along with the FED not going 75.

terrible day , terrible what chance to average IN, NONE!

too late and it was looking good for sub 3.20 again...

MHJ starting to move up also after some days of very light volume....

Imagine if inflation moderates in the next 2 years...

[Davexl]

Well at least Consumer Durables / Non-Durables held up in today's US Market Rout - proving Defensiveness...but not so much in NZ, so far...

https://money.cnn.com/data/markets?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon

[winner69]

Q3 retail sales update any day now


I reckon they'll be $772m - down 1.0% on last year ....but double digit growth from 2019

[Waltzing]

what a price 3.15 ... that was a surprise but we will see it again?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So both countdown & foodstuffs have both announced a reduction in price of a range of everyday food items.

so how much of that was driven by the warehouses recent shift to promoting their cheap food basics?

[Beagle]

Disappointing close but volume weighted average price was $3.2257

The market has been a very hard taskmaster this month, down 5% and its only May 11th :eek2:

Not sure LEK but I think it would have been one of several factors playing into their decisions.

[Habits]

So both countdown & foodstuffs have both announced a reduction in price of a range of everyday food items.

so how much of that was driven by the warehouses recent shift to promoting their cheap food basics?

Healthy competition or monopolistic behaviour to quash the new kid... who knows? Under the current setup whs will have to be patient, need deep pockets and have something more than tv ads. Some good, blink and you will miss them deals will help to get attention

[alokdhir]

WHS top of the leaderboard today

Retail seemed to be in favour today ….was it Briscoes sales update?

Briscoes said quarter sales up 18% on same period in F19 …..I reckon WHS sales will be up 22% on same basis

Might see another good day for retail ….WHS up to $3.60

Seems retail investors have starting to panic ...WHS down with other only retail investor stocks like KFL shows they want out at any cost

But we can help them by buying WHS cheaper ...315 was great buy at close yesterday ...:t_up:

[see weed]

Don't panic. I sold 10% of my holding on close yesterday. sp will recover;)

[Louloubell]

That is funny

[alokdhir]

Don't panic. I sold 10% of my holding on close yesterday. sp will recover;)

When u selling more ? Please give us heads up so we waiting ...:D

[see weed]

When u selling more ? Please give us heads up so we waiting ...:D
The ylds too good, won't be selling any more.

[alokdhir]

The ylds too good, won't be selling any more.

Hope they keep doing well to keep supporting the yield ...Wage costs can kill super thin margins they work on ...also other general inflationary pressures on costs

[Beagle]

Hope they keep doing well to keep supporting the yield ...Wage costs can kill super thin margins they work on ...also other general inflationary pressures on costs

People are going to have to get used to paying a bit more for consumer staples. That's okay and will be readily accepted by consumers because WHS prices were so cheap to start with its ridiculous. Apart from that inflation is so widespread that consumers are already conditioned into accepting they have to pay more. That regular conditioning starts at the fuel bowser every time people fill up.

[alokdhir]

People are going to have to get used to paying a bit more for consumer staples. That's okay and will be readily accepted by consumers because WHS prices were so cheap to start with its ridiculous. Apart from that inflation is so widespread that consumers are already conditioned into accepting they have to pay more. That regular conditioning starts at the fuel bowser every time people fill up.

That part I understand and agree with ...but wont trying to be cheapest put some margin pressure on WHS accounts in this inflationary times ...Its a question of management skills now to keep razor thin margins safe ...Does WHS has skilful and effective management to thrive in difficult times ...

[Waltzing]

There could be some more selling down of markets to go although 75 taken off the table might moderate it some.

[Beagle]

That part I understand and agree with ...but wont trying to be cheapest put some margin pressure on WHS accounts in this inflationary times ...Its a question of management skills now to keep razor thin margins safe ...Does WHS has skilful and effective management to thrive in difficult times ...

Time will tell. I'd rather be invested in a company selling consumer staples than consumer discretionary that's for sure !

[Waltzing]

still nice to see some selling pressure again today.

[Davexl]

There could be some more selling down of markets to go although 75 taken off the table might moderate it some.

Suggest keeping an eye on the VIX in both US & Aust might be useful too - things aren't settling down just yet on the S&P500...

For newbies - https://www2.asx.com.au/investors/learn-about-our-investment-solutions/indices/types/s-p-asx-200-vix-index

[Davexl]

Nice big block at $3.17 for anyone with funds - no cash here...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Suppose I should take some profit on that short. Need to buy some essentials.

[clearasmud]

Suppose I should take some profit on that short. Need to buy some essentials.

If you don't mind me asking, why are you shorting WHS?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If you don't mind me asking, why are you shorting WHS?

Mainly to try make money on the opposite side of one of Beagles trades :p

Generally speaking I think retail will struggle given the economic climate. WHS likely less impacted than most, however market hates WHS, so I'm much more comfortable shorting it. Great risk/reward opportunity for entry with the index inclusion. Sitting quite happily risk free now. Happy to get stopped out as it means the economy wont have s*** the bed.

[clearasmud]

Thanks Johnny.

[ratkin]

Looks like the flagship warehouse store in South City mall is going to close. Staff have been given the heads up. That mall has become deserted since New World moved out. I count myself among them. We used to go their to do our weekly shop and eat in the foodcourt, but without New World it lacks a reason to go.
The chemist warehouse that replaced it put in exterior doors so its customers do not even have to walk through the mall to access it.

South City Mall going the same way as Bush inn. Just another desrted precinct.

Heres a link to the news https://chrislynchmedia.com/newsitems/warehouse-south-city-staff-told-of-the-proposal-to-close-store

[Teatree]

40 trades to get 800 shares today at 313 gosh my inbox is full surely people don't sell just one share

[winner69]

Fuel prices hit all time high of $3.15 a litre in Auckland

Just as well the Red Sheds are helping the poorer ones in the community

and that $3.15 is after Wellington and other places paying Aucklands special levy ….subsidising Auckland motorists is a good thing eh

[winner69]

Q3 retail sales update any day now


I reckon they'll be $772m - down on last year ....

Group sales for the 13 weeks to 1 May 2022 (“FY22 Q3”) were $771.6 million

Honest. Nick didn't tell me ..... just finger on the pulse

Tell you 4th quarter sales in a week or so

[winner69]

Nick says 'Despite these factors, Q3 has held up relatively well with a solid performance across the Group'

Nick being modest again

Should have said Q3 has held up amazingly well

[bull....]

not to bad a report , but warning signs? revenue and foot traffic may reflect the start of the decline in sales coming?

[winner69]

For whats its worth here's how how TWG sales have trended from before covid times

No comment

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Group sales for the 13 weeks to 1 May 2022 (“FY22 Q3”) were $771.6 million

Honest. Nick didn't tell me ..... just finger on the pulse

Tell you 4th quarter sales in a week or so

nice forecasting WINNER!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

For whats its worth here's how how TWG sales have trended from before covid times

No comment

Its amazing how often we are seeing this chart shape across so many companies lately (internationally, not just in NZ)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

WHS added to MSCI index too so I'm out of that short! I'll be back.

[Davexl]

Need a second coffee sorry!

[bull....]

WHS added to MSCI index too so I'm out of that short! I'll be back.

so soon the chart looks like a bearish pattern to me likely to be confirmed in time

[BlackPeter]

From NYT

Waiting for Western weapons



Ukraine’s army has been successful in defeating Russian forces in the north, relying on stealth and mobility to carry out ambushes against its bigger, better equipped foe. But in the south, it’s a different sort of war (https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/jhCzPAbD9LJBWW0ezv972Q~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRkX_ldP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi 8wNS8xMi93b3JsZC91a3JhaW5lLXJ1c3NpYS13ZWFwb25zLmh0 bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjQ5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3J1d2JfMjAyMj A1MTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NjExOTMmbmw9cnVzc2lhLXVrcmFp bmUtd2FyLWJyaWVmaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9ODM2Nzc0NzImc2VnbW VudF9pZD05MjA4MyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YzEwMGFiMzY0Y2Zi YmFiMTViN2ZhODc5MTQ5NzhhYjJXA255dEIKYnpddH1ibNiSDV IUZGxhd3Rvbi5uekBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~).





Military analysts say the outcome now is riding on the accuracy, quantity and striking power of each side’s long-range weapons. For the moment, Russia’s artillery capability far surpasses that of Ukraine.





Russia’s 203-millimeter Peony howitzers, for example, have a range of about 24 miles, while Ukraine’s 152-millimeter Geocent guns fire out only to 18. (Soviet legacy artillery systems, used by both sides, are named for flowers.) Ukrainians desperately want American howitzers: their 25-mile range and GPS-guided precision would, in some places, tilt the advantage slightly away from Russia.





Reporting from Pryvillia, a Ukrainian position near the Dnipro River, our correspondent Andrew Kramer writes that Ukraine cannot advance without M777 howitzers and other long-range Western artillery.





If Ukrainian forces have the range to hit Russian positions, Ukrainian infantry might advance under the artillery umbrella of these longer-range systems. The goal would be to move to within striking range of two bridges and a dam spanning the Dnipro River, in an operation that could cut the supply lines of the Russian forces.





The wait has been long: It was only this week that the first U.S.-supplied howitzer was fired in combat in this region, according to a video the military provided to a Ukrainian news outlet. Ukraine is also waiting for drones, used to spot targets and correct artillery fire, and tracked armored vehicles, to tow howitzers into position.



Col. Taras Styk, a commander in a tank brigade, said he would gladly target Russian supply lines. “But now we have nothing that can hit them.”


you sure that's the right thread?

[bull....]

whs getting into western weapon sales ?

[Davexl]

Sorry guys, need that second coffee...

[Waltzing]

Shows how tough slogging it going to be in the next 2 years.

Dont see any of these SP taking off winner(n) ?

A Solid MR B Div stock with potential for slow SP growth over the next 5 years.

Dont think the WHS is going to be doing any sales of large defence systems. Probably removed that post and repost.

Flavoured Milk?

The chart has a lot of triangular patterns you could draw. You could make it look like a falling knife or you could create a new upward trend from january 2020 smoothing out the ranges.

What does Graph.Value[YTD23] =+ Winner(*N[])

look like.

"Sorry guys, need that second coffee..."

make sure you shop for that ONLINE at WHS.....

needs all the help they can get!!!

BUY WHS....

[Waltzing]

Market seems to like the Update.

its a BUY!

Did MR B get it right AGAIN!!

[Muse]

master w69 - whats your pick for FY22 2H CODB? $ and/or % of sales? The release was devoid information on fixed cost base and surprised they didn't provide guidance given how advanced the financial year is

[Beagle]

Solid result considering Omricon was raging for most of the quarter.
Good to see 4 more Warehouse Stationary store within a store integrations which is good progress in just one quarter.
I am expecting ongoing retail footprint rationalization and staff efficiencies as most of their leases come up for review in the next few years.
Good to see strong growth in online sales. Happy holder.
Well done on the sales forecast Winner.

[Waltzing]

There are some empty buildings in central north island towns that are sitting idle.

Not ideal for GMT because of limited motorway access but perfect for large format car park with some restructuring of the builds.

And right across from other super markets.

May be not being noticed by WHS management and the local leases making the transitions unworkable.

Some spaces going to waste in these exploding towns off the motorway south.

[winner69]

WHS added to MSCI index too so I'm out of that short! I'll be back.

Probably the reason for the big rise today?

Sales update wasn't that great

[Beagle]

Probably the reason for the big rise today?

Sales update wasn't that great

Solid update considering during February, March and April Omricon was rampant and a lot of people were very conservative about going out shopping.

[Rawz]

Not sure people care about omicron anymore, Beagle. Don’t think it’s an excuse anymore

[Beagle]

Not sure people care about omicron anymore, Beagle. Don’t think it’s an excuse anymore

Don't forget that at the peak there was over 20,000 cases a day ! I think Nick made it clear Omricon had a material impact in the quarter.
Sales up 8% in a raging Omricon quarter compared to (2019 level's when we were blissfully unaware of this whole Covid nightmare) is pretty impressive. Its seems the market agrees :t_up:

[RTM]

Not sure people care about omicron anymore, Beagle. Don’t think it’s an excuse anymore

Some people maybe Rawz. We are still being careful, trying to dodge it.

[Beagle]

Some people maybe Rawz. We are still being careful, trying to dodge it.

You are wise as its harder on older dogs like us. We're very conservative, won't go to the boat show for example, too many people in a confined space. It smashed my Sister in law pretty hard for 6 weeks. Hard enough she gave me a very stern warning to avoid it if I can.

Probably pluck up the courage to go and get some winter basics at my local WHS on a quiet Monday morning sometime soon.

[Waltzing]

SP it will come back ... sure it will... hopefully it will... maybe....has every other time... cant be different this time surely... wasnt that good...someone even said a clear downtrend in the charts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE

[winner69]

Wonder what Nick means when he says this - It's (grocery) something we’re seriously considering and we’re watching with interest to see what steps the Government will take to make a difference to New Zealanders and allow other players like us to enter the grocery market in a bigger way. 

Surely not government support?

But whatever if he's hoping the government is going to make it easy for him to become a grocer he's going to have a wait a long time .... hope he's not becomeing delusional

Danger is that he and his team will lose focus on what really matters ....like the businesses they have now.

seems a certain irony that both WHS and aged care operators talk about government support .... what's the world coming to

[BlackPeter]

Wonder what Nick means when he says this - It's (grocery) something we’re seriously considering and we’re watching with interest to see what steps the Government will take to make a difference to New Zealanders and allow other players like us to enter the grocery market in a bigger way. 

Surely not government support?

But whatever if he's hoping the government is going to make it easy for him to become a grocer he's going to have a wait a long time .... hope he's not becomeing delusional

Danger is that he and his team will lose focus on what really matters ....like the businesses they have now.

seems a certain irony that both WHS and aged care operators talk about government support .... what's the world coming to

Maybe he is just asking for a level playing field? The current supermarket duopoly controls in NZ most of the real estate suitable for supermarkets (owning it or having sold with covenants stopping others to sell food from these outlets) and they control as well the wholesale business (basically forcing producers to choose whether they want to sell just to them or just to somebody else). Unravel the supermarket mafia?

Splitting the wholesale business from the retail business (like politics did in a different industry when they split Telecom into Chorus and (now) Spark) and reviewing convenants which are clearly just designed to protect a monopolistic market position could be a good start ... and even our mediocre set of politicians (of all coleurs ;) ) might be able to achieve this goal in a reasonable time frame.

Agree however with your point that Nick better not lose his focus on the business he has. One bird in the hand vs two in the bush spring to mind ...

[Joshuatree]

Good ideas but would that make alot of difference re Supermkts. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it a volume business with margins being around 3-4%.If so would food etc be much cheaper with a 2-3% margin say. The other thing it's an economy of numbers thing,tiny population and distance here at the bottom of the world.

[BlackPeter]

Good ideas but would that make alot of difference re Supermkts. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it a volume business with margins being around 3-4%.If so would food etc be much cheaper with a 2-3% margin say. The other thing it's an economy of numbers thing,tiny population and distance here at the bottom of the world.

Reminds me of a joke my father used to tell. It goes like this:

"Old school friends meeting and surprised that worst student in class arrives in a new Rolls Royce, while the best in class only drives an old and clearly preloved Nissan.

How did you make that much money? Easy. I am trading eggs, buy them for 10 cents and sell them for 20 cents, making a 10% margin."

What I want to say is - how do you know that in NZ they only make a 3 to 4 % margin? Is this what they tell us? These net margins might be so slim in countries with real competition, but what we have here is a joke instead.

(Edit) Justy came across this article, which looks a bit deeper into our grocery prices. Sure - distance to markets and low population desnity are as well factors for our outrageous supermarket prices, but lack of competition is a biggie, and this is something politics easily could fix.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/128004400/explainer-why-do-we-pay-so-much-for-our-groceries-in-new-zealand

[winner69]

Countdown profit after tax about 2.3% of sales

TWG profit margin H122 was 2.8% of sales

And they want to become a grocer!!!!!

Sorry Nick - you guys failed last time ..... this time won't be any different

[Beagle]

CNBC this morning. Consumer staples the only sector on the US markets to go up this difficult week.
WHS the only retailer to go up this week, market down 3.8%.

Coincide ?...You be the judge.

[winner69]

CNBC this morning. Consumer staples the only sector on the US markets to go up this difficult week.
WHS the only retailer to go up this week, market down 3.8%.

Coincide ?...You be the judge.

That's spooky .... really spooky

[clearasmud]

Countdown profit after tax about 2.3% of sales

TWG profit margin H122 was 2.8% of sales

And they want to become a grocer!!!!!

Sorry Nick - you guys failed last time ..... this time won't be any different
I had the impression that the grocery players became substantial WHS shareholders and persuaded the board to drop the idea of trying to compete in grocery.

[winner69]

I had the impression that the grocery players became substantial WHS shareholders and persuaded the board to drop the idea of trying to compete in grocery.

Foodstuffs got involved when WHS started with groceries ...... and then with private equity were interested in acquiring WHS .... Woolworths bought a blocking stake .... and the ComCom put paid to the acquisition anyway

Foodstuffs / Woolworths may have dissuaded WHS from groceries

[clearasmud]

And now they have sold their stakes. Cynical me says it's because the game is up.

[Sideshow Bob]

And now they have sold their stakes. Cynical me says it's because the game is up.

Great chance for the Warehouse now, environment is ripe to go hard on groceries - build consumer goodwill and bring in foot traffic.

Warehouse market cap $1.09B - I wonder how many New World's could buy for that??

[clearasmud]

Trust me, a lot.

[nztx]

Great chance for the Warehouse now, environment is ripe to go hard on groceries - build consumer goodwill and bring in foot traffic.

Warehouse market cap $1.09B - I wonder how many New World's could buy for that??


Very easy for WHS to establish Grocery, once they have Supply & Operational sides mastered.
They already have the retail turf and ready audience.

No wonder Foodstuffs & others were worried, but the way the Politics & Comcom are possibly
looking now, the other big players in the ring may never get the chance to put any more
than a minor finger in the works again moving forward.

If Foodstuffs had been smarter - they had a fairly good opportunity to co-locate new
outlets on exceptional established retail turf, but instead appear to have forfeited the chance
as a significant holder.

The margins in many grocery lines are not as great as our Meddling Politicians often muse
with the Supermarkets - but the Pink Fluffy Dreams are Free too ;)

Vast volumes out through the doors is instead the name of the Grocery Success game.

Anyone can easily fathom this one out in just comparing prices at your suburban corner Four Square
against the Pak & Save or Countdown prices in the city :)

Would WHS want to enter fully fledged Grocery though - given the High Volume / Low Margin
of many aspects of that trade - or just cherry pick off the easy retail parts it liked ?

Why be distracted into an area & tie up working capital on another facet - Grocery in General
where margins arguably could be lower than their other lines, and where the Competition
may be even more inspired to cut each other's margins to shreds with the strong spotlight
focused on the Grocery Sector by Wellington's Clueless Brigade ? ;)


A reluctance by WHS to enter Grocery on anything other than minor select Cherry Picking
should be message enough to Govt & the Politicians that they have got their acclaimed spinning
& claims on the Grocery Sector badly up the tree and they are completely wrong on their counts :)

[Waltzing]

Not all WHS stores are set up for it are they?

[850man]

My local WHS in Lunn Ave has just installed a bunch of shelves now filled with non perishable grocery items. Still a way to go before they would be a viable alternative to one of the duopoly for a weekly shop

[Sideshow Bob]

Countdown profit after tax about 2.3% of sales

TWG profit margin H122 was 2.8% of sales

And they want to become a grocer!!!!!

Sorry Nick - you guys failed last time ..... this time won't be any different

I have been of the understanding that with owner/operator Foodstuffs model, about 5% falls to the bottom line.

[winner69]

So Feb/Apr quarter done and dusted

Briscoes UP 1.8% v 2021 and UP 17.0% v 2019
Warehouse DOWN 2.5% v 2021 and UP 8.0% v 3029

Seems WHS haven't done as well as Briscoes - over the last 12 months as well as over the last 3 years

WHS must be losing market share?

Briscoes share price down 6% since the update -- WHS up -- just shows you how good being part of major index helps

[winner69]

Jeez, those Red Sheds are a worry

The last four quarters (May to April) sales have been $1,725m ,,,, down &% from a year ago and much the same as the $1.720 Jan 20 pre covid

Good grief - Red Sheds did $1.742m and $1.739m in 2016 and 2017 - so sales gone backwards over the last 6 years

Maybe Nick has recognised that big stores like Red Sheds are actually a dinosaur of the past with no real future so he may has well turn them into supermarkets

[winner69]

RYM out of MSCI General Index from May 31st

Somebody on here mentioned WHS going into a MSCI index

Was that just speculation? Be good if true

Anybody know?

[Rawz]

Kmart would have taken a lot of that business away from the WHS.

[alokdhir]

RYM out of MSCI General Index from May 31st

Somebody on here mentioned WHS going into a MSCI index

Was that just speculation? Be good if true

Anybody know?

Its included in MSCI small cap index ...its a confirmed news ...

[winner69]

Its included in MSCI small cap index ...its a confirmed news ...

So all this index inclusion activity boosting the share price eh ..rather than ‘solid sales’ performance

Hope the buying continues

[alokdhir]

So all this index inclusion activity boosting the share price eh ..rather than ‘solid sales’ performance

Hope the buying continues

Maybe till 31st May ...lol ...someone makes WHS rosier then actuals ...but WHS has a bad reputation and poor quality management ...maybe they will show their better version this time in managing current situations and opportunities better then what they had done in the past

[BlackPeter]

So Feb/Apr quarter done and dusted

Briscoes UP 1.8% v 2021 and UP 17.0% v 2019
Warehouse DOWN 2.5% v 2021 and UP 8.0% v 3029

Seems WHS haven't done as well as Briscoes - over the last 12 months as well as over the last 3 years

WHS must be losing market share?

Briscoes share price down 6% since the update -- WHS up -- just shows you how good being part of major index helps

Maybe some investors are not just driven by a random set of quarterly numbers ...

I don't have Briscoes on my watchlist ... but if I just take the Jarden numbers:

WHS comes at todays prices with a PE of 10.4 and Briscoes with a PE of 14.15;

I can see why buyers prefer the Warehouse :) ;

[Sideshow Bob]

I see one of the questions will be in tougher economic times (inflation, rising interest rates, fuel costs etc) whether punters will "trade down" to the Warehouse, who would have normally spent at other chains stores/malls etc.

Kmart is their main competitor, and from what I see are a pretty good operation, quite smart stores and a really good offering. I find it hard to get enthuiastic going into a red shed - literally, shoot me now if the missus grads me in one!!

But in the South Island, there are only 5 KMarts - there are towns like Timaru, Oamaru, Ashburton, Dunedin, Blenheim where the Warehouse has much lesser competition.

As for Briscoes trading at a higher PE, I think a proven track record accounts for most of that.

[BlackPeter]

I see one of the questions will be in tougher economic times (inflation, rising interest rates, fuel costs etc) whether punters will "trade down" to the Warehouse, who would have normally spent at other chains stores/malls etc.

Kmart is their main competitor, and from what I see are a pretty good operation, quite smart stores and a really good offering. I find it hard to get enthuiastic going into a red shed - literally, shoot me now if the missus grads me in one!!

But in the South Island, there are only 5 KMarts - there are towns like Timaru, Oamaru, Ashburton, Dunedin, Blenheim where the Warehouse has much lesser competition.

As for Briscoes trading at a higher PE, I think a proven track record accounts for most of that.

Maybe it comes down to personal experience and location ... but while for me the red sheds provide occasionally a "diving into junk" feeling (and I think the quality of their stuff did generally improve), KMart is quite consistent in creating a one dollar shop experience.

As well - while there are on our ususal shopping paths 4 or 5 easily accessible red sheds (plus a similar number of Noel Leeming shops and a couple of Torpedo 7 outlets), I remember only one Kmart in town ... we hardly ever went into KMart when we went to this particular mall and since they further reduced parking spaces we don't go to this mall at all.

Maybe its different in the North Island ... but here I really can't see KMart as serious competition to any of the Warehouse outlets.

Briscoes can be good when they have one of their (admittedly) many sales ... otherwise you pay an arm and a leg for what the Warehouse would provide at a reasonable price. Depends on your shopping behaviour. We buy stuff when we need it, and not when there happens to be a sale. For anybody shopping on a similar basis the Warehouse is clearly the better option :):

[winner69]

Walmart sold heaps but profit didn't meet expectations ..... share price down 10%

CNBC says higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits

Hope WHS not having these issues which seem to be a global problem

[Sideshow Bob]

Walmart sold heaps but profit didn't meet expectations ..... share price down 10%

CNBC says higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits

Hope WHS not having these issues which seem to be a global problem

Friend in the US described logisitics there as "chaos management".

For WHS, good portion of China is shut down currently, not to mention delays, but the freight costs will be quantifiably higher.

Have to flow through in some way - reduced margins, higher prices, out of stocks, less sales with price resistance - or all of these.

[Beagle]

Walmart sold heaps but profit didn't meet expectations ..... share price down 10%

CNBC says higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits

Hope WHS not having these issues which seem to be a global problem

Yeap saw that but Walmart on a forward PE of 22 and WHS only about half that. Their yield is only 1.59%. Have to remember that the S&P 500 as a whole is now on a forward PE of just on 17 times so Walmart is not a cheap stock like WHS is here and Walmart was up year to date before that announcement whereas WHS is still down considerably on where it started the year.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/WALMART-INC-4841/financials/
Challenges won't last forever and latest commentary from Nick provided encouragement that they are managing through this pretty well. WHS is deep value, extremely high yield.

[Snow Leopard]

Walmart sold heaps but profit didn't meet expectations ..... share price down 10%

CNBC says higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits

Hope WHS not having these issues which seem to be a global problem

Best to value WHS on a no growth PE of 9 with a 25% discount given the uncertainity of future earnings?

[Beagle]

Best to value WHS on a no growth PE of 9 with a 25% discount given the uncertainity of future earnings?

LOL My food bag with its ~ 1 year as a listed company and known tailwinds from Covid is a very special (cot ?) case.

[Waltzing]

Its true WHS face a lot of headwinds and really has to get control of the PL but this applies to every NZ list company that does not have an international advantage.

Dont see WHS as having NO growth but over the next decade slow growth...Up and Down .. few steps side ways and hopefully some more UP.

[Habits]

Its true WHS face a lot of headwinds and really has to get control of the PL but this applies to every NZ list company that does not have an international advantage.

Dont see WHS as having NO growth but over the next decade slow growth...Up and Down .. few steps side ways and hopefully some more UP.

WHS has good 'pedigree' shareholders which makes them worth sticking with if you have whs shares. Whs doing much better than some other retailers which makes me reluctant to part with any along with the generous divie. Though I need cash very soon, have sold out of hlg a few weeks and months back, which turned out to be a very good move.

[Waltzing]

"Up and Down .. few steps side ways"

sounds like a waltz...


off topic ... Eric Murray out... he could get a new job doing adverts for WHS..

[Waltzing]

Think MR B said money might get thrown around in the budget but a New Poll says 4 to 1 Kiwis dont want more money spent by government in budget...

[850man]

Think MR B said money might get thrown around in the budget but a New Poll says 4 to 1 Kiwis dont want more money spent by government in budget...

4 years evidence indicates money spent does NOT equal results delivered.

[Entrep]

Costco, Target, etc REKT overnight.

[Waltzing]

its carnage...

[Davexl]

S&P500 down just over 4% - big hit. Retailer result summing up CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/what...e-economy.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/what-walmart-target-home-depot-and-lowes-tell-us-about-the-economy.html)

[bull....]

warehouse most like target. target crushed by rising costs and shift in spending patterns away from discretionary items. nz to follow soon i reckon

Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/target-tgt-q1-2022-earnings.html

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/392014/370431.pdf

Just 6 days ago Nick said:- Excerpt Group CEO Nick Grayston said, “The trading environment continues to be very challenging with high
inflation impacting consumer spending, shipping delays affecting the Group’s stock availability, and
some customers remaining hesitant to return to stores in person. Despite these factors, Q3 has held up
relatively well with a solid performance across the Group

I'm not buying into "the sky is falling" B.S. spun by the usual suspects.

[bull....]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/WHS/392014/370431.pdf

Just 6 days ago Nick said:- Excerpt Group CEO Nick Grayston said, “The trading environment continues to be very challenging with high
inflation impacting consumer spending, shipping delays affecting the Group’s stock availability, and
some customers remaining hesitant to return to stores in person. Despite these factors, Q3 has held up
relatively well with a solid performance across the Group

I'm not buying into "the sky is falling" B.S. spun by the usual suspects.

you need to look into late this yr and next yr . whs failed to provide update of forward earnings because environment is rapidly changing. target results reflect what will happen to whs in my opinion in the future quarters