WHS - Warehouse Group

[BIRMANBOY]

Maybe because he likes the dividend? Currently pays out at 6.5% gross Before imputation credits. Very reliable dividend history. Not everyone thinks growth all the time Percy. There are different approaches to investing and good to have a holistic approach as opposed to "my way is the way of true believers".
Why? Why? Why? Why?Why did you buy? Are you a Lemming? Not a good idea.! Leave the jumping off cliffs to others.!

[percy]

Maybe because he likes the dividend? Currently pays out at 6.5% gross Before imputation credits. Very reliable dividend history. Not everyone thinks growth all the time Percy. There are different approaches to investing and good to have a holistic approach as opposed to "my way is the way of true believers".

With the amount of capital he has lost in the past year I would have thought he would understand "the holistic approach" is the fast way to "the poor house."!!!
Warren Buffett's three golden rules of investment;\
Rule 1.Do not lose capital.
Rule 2.Remember rule 1.
Rule 3.Remember rule 1 and 2.

[couta1]

Maybe because he likes the dividend? Currently pays out at 6.5% gross Before imputation credits. Very reliable dividend history. Not everyone thinks growth all the time Percy. There are different approaches to investing and good to have a holistic approach as opposed to "my way is the way of true believers".
Dead right BB have held WHS on and off over the years and never lost a dime nothing wrong with paying $3.27 Percy the price ain't going to stay there, I was simply commenting in a humorous way what the chart will look like tonight:scared: PS-MVN goes Ex divvy tomorrow so i guess that means BB and myself will have some more pocket money to spend.

[percy]

Dead right BB have held WHS on and off over the years and never lost a dime nothing wrong with paying $3.27 Percy the price ain't going to stay there, I was simply commenting in a humorous way what the chart will look like tonight:scared: PS-MVN goes Ex divvy tomorrow so i guess that means BB and myself will have some more pocket money to spend.

I wish you both well.
ps.Just looked at MVN chart. OMG.!!!!

[Snow Leopard]

...
Rule 1.Do not lose capital.
Rule 2.Remember rule 1.
Rule 3.Remember rule 1 and 2.

I am sure that is not quite what he said, but in that spirit:

Mr W Buffet from Omaha also said things like:

Be greedy when percy is fearful and vice versa;

Whether it be sock or stocks, make sure they that percy has not previously worn them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

I am sure that is not quite what he said, but in that spirit:

Mr W Buffet from Omaha also said things like:

Be greedy when percy is fearful and vice versa;

Whether it be sock or stocks, make sure they that percy has not previously worn them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

From The Tao of Warren Buffett;
This is the most important thing;
'Rule No.1;'never lose money'
Rule No.2;'don't forget Rule No,1'.

[Onion]

Why? Why? Why? Why?Why did you buy? Are you a Lemming? Not a good idea.! Leave the jumping off cliffs to others.!

Why why why do you think couta needs to be warned off? What is it that makes WHS such a bad thing at current prices?

[percy]

Why why why do you think couta needs to be warned off? What is it that makes WHS such a bad thing at current prices?

Onion.
Maybe a long answer.
First of all I think management are making all the correct decisions.Noel Leemings,online stores,click and collect,banking.
However I use charts for timing purchases/sales of shares.The most important indicators for me are the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.WHS share price is below both averages,which means to me stay away.Another important indicator to me is the MACD.This has turned down.Again to me it means stay away.The slow stochastic indicator also confirms stay away.
The best advice has been given by KW;Go to Forum,Then Investment Strategies;Then Using TA to time entries & exits.
Brilliant advice.

[BIRMANBOY]

Its not necessarily long or even necessarily right. What it is is your reading on the stock......here is an other version that may be equally (to some?) and more valid (to me anyway). Since Feb 2013 the SP has not been lower than 3.20 and in fact has been between 3.60 to 3.80 for most of that period. So whilst I am a complete advocate of buying low and when possible lower, the fact is that opportunities to buy low just have not been available. I therefore see your judgement as to the rightness or wrongness of timing and choice of WHS as somewhat subjective ( in a monocular kind of way).
Onion.
Maybe a long answer.
First of all I think management are making all the correct decisions.Noel Leemings,online stores,click and collect,banking.
However I use charts for timing purchases/sales of shares.The most important indicators for me are the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.WHS share price is below both averages,which means to me stay away.Another important indicator to me is the MACD.This has turned down.Again to me it means stay away.The slow stochastic indicator also confirms stay away.

[percy]

Its not necessarily long or even necessarily right. What it is is your reading on the stock......here is an other version that may be equally (to some?) and more valid (to me anyway). Since Feb 2013 the SP has not been lower than 3.20 and in fact has been between 3.60 to 3.80 for most of that period. So whilst I am a complete advocate of buying low and when possible lower, the fact is that opportunities to buy low just have not been available. I therefore see your judgement as to the rightness or wrongness of timing and choice of WHS as somewhat subjective ( in a monocular kind of way).

Very subjective in hindsight.
WHS share price since January 2000 down 60.49%.since June 2009 down 13.37%,Since June 2013 down 11.96%.

[BIRMANBOY]

Selective, subjective its all there...what isn't there is some recognition that some investors, as per previous posts, don't really buy for growth ...read the posts. Dividends keep coming...SP's go up and go down. If you buy at low points periodically you'll end up beating the averages. Quoting SP drops is just too simplistic to be useful.
Very subjective in hindsight.
WHS share price since January 2000 down 60.49%.since June 2009 down 13.37%,Since June 2013 down 11.96%.

[percy]

Selective, subjective its all there...what isn't there is some recognition that some investors, as per previous posts, don't really buy for growth ...read the posts. Dividends keep coming...SP's go up and go down. If you buy at low points periodically you'll end up beating the averages. Quoting SP drops is just too simplistic to be useful.

Yeah right.!!!!! lol.
May be another low point is not far away.Hold yourself at the ready.!!!

[JayRiggs]

To me, Warehouse is like Telecom.
Over a long time frame, financial performance has been sloppy to average, and share price has trended downwards. But they keep pumping out those dividends.
It's all about the dividends. Dividends, dividends, DIVIDENDS!!! :eek2:

Warehouse are 3/5ths through their 5 year turnaround strategy. Give them another 2 years, combined with their new financial services to get more people to buy more crap in their stores, we can see decent capital gains along with those juicy dividends.

Heck they might do what Telecom did and change their name. Telecom to Spark.
Warehouse to Red. Warehouse Stationery to Blue. Noel Leeming to Lemmings.

[BIRMANBOY]

Percy, Percy, Percy, are we reduced to LOL now? I take that to be a grudging admission that there is nothing more that can be said? I'm not looking to be right ..more some recognition from you that there are in fact "other" ways of investing .....that in fact the Percy Investing Manual is simply that...the way YOU look at investing. However just for your amusement and to prove that the Manual is a "work in progress", allow me to present some of the BB facts as per WHS. Over the years I have been buying WHS I have purchased at the following SP 3.41, 3.02, 3.17, 2.66 and 2.51 My average buy in price now is 2.84. This investment is returning me a 10.5% gross div yield on my capital each year and I am also in the money (unrealized cap gain in the 5 figures). Yeah right? Yes indeed. PS are you a holder? Not that that is important or necessary just curious. For the last time....investing means different things to different people and its just rude to rubbish someone else's choices or decisions without having the full facts. Even then not particularly illuminating is it?
Yeah right.!!!!! lol.

[percy]

Percy, Percy, Percy, are we reduced to LOL now? I take that to be a grudging admission that there is nothing more that can be said? I'm not looking to be right ..more some recognition from you that there are in fact "other" ways of investing .....that in fact the Percy Investing Manual is simply that...the way YOU look at investing. However just for your amusement and to prove that the Manual is a "work in progress", allow me to present some of the BB facts as per WHS. Over the years I have been buying WHS I have purchased at the following SP 3.41, 3.02, 3.17, 2.66 and 2.51 My average buy in price now is 2.84. This investment is returning me a 10.5% gross div yield on my capital each year and I am also in the money (unrealized cap gain in the 5 figures). Yeah right? Yes indeed. PS are you a holder? Not that that is important or necessary just curious. For the last time....investing means different things to different people and its just rude to rubbish someone else's choices or decisions without having the full facts. Even then not particularly illuminating is it?

Each to their own.If it works for you keep doing it!!
No I am not a holder.Over the past two or three years I have warned that the retail sector is difficult and faces many challenges.I like WHS's strategy.I have them on a watch list,and will consider buying them,once I feel the trend has changed.From the way it looks to me $3.20 may be the support level.Then again it may be the low of $2.50 reached in July 2012. I am not looking to buy at the bottom.I prefer to wait until the uptrend is confirmed.So at present time to safe guard my capital, I will sit on the sidelines.

[Onion]

Thanks everyone for your views. It it interesting to read the contrasting ideas.

I have been watching WHS for a while. I don't have any retail in my portfolio and have been wondering if WHS fits the bill.

BGR and KMD have both had a good run but the SP seems to fully account for their record.

HLG seen to be over their worst but operate in a narrower segment than WHS.

So I have been contemplating a buy of WHS while the SP appears to be a bargain (at least simplisticly compared to historic prices). But when to take the plunge? Hmmm!

[macduffy]

Just a thought, Onion, and on a completely different tangent.

I'm holding WHS - and Briscoes - but in a highly overdiversified portfolio. In different circumstances I'm not sure that I'd be too keen on buying any retailer these days although I take Birmanboy's point about how WHS has delivered as an income stock. It depends on individual investment aims and needs but as I say, just a thought!

[noodles]

Just a thought, Onion, and on a completely different tangent.

I'm holding WHS - and Briscoes - but in a highly overdiversified portfolio. In different circumstances I'm not sure that I'd be too keen on buying any retailer these days although I take Birmanboy's point about how WHS has delivered as an income stock. It depends on individual investment aims and needs but as I say, just a thought!

I agree macduffy. Retail in general is not the place to be. Sure, Briscoes have shown to be very nimble and well managed. I think the jury is out on WHS. There are plenty of stocks with a better dividend yield that WHS. TUA, CMO, and THL are trading gross yields of close to 10% .

[Joshuatree]

Percy, Percy, Percy, are we reduced to LOL now? I take that to be a grudging admission that there is nothing more that can be said? I'm not looking to be right ..more some recognition from you that there are in fact "other" ways of investing .....that in fact the Percy Investing Manual is simply that...the way YOU look at investing. However just for your amusement and to prove that the Manual is a "work in progress", allow me to present some of the BB facts as per WHS. Over the years I have been buying WHS I have purchased at the following SP 3.41, 3.02, 3.17, 2.66 and 2.51 My average buy in price now is 2.84. This investment is returning me a 10.5% gross div yield on my capital each year and I am also in the money (unrealized cap gain in the 5 figures). Yeah right? Yes indeed. PS are you a holder? Not that that is important or necessary just curious. For the last time....investing means different things to different people and its just rude to rubbish someone else's choices or decisions without having the full facts. Even then not particularly illuminating is it?

Thanks for that BB. Its a great story re sticking to your convictions through thick and thin; sitting and ignoring the "noise"in the mkts and achieving your targets of great yields plus some growth. Different strokes:).

[macduffy]

Here's a timely reminder from Aussie about retailing's current problems. Refers to recent budget measures but much of it applies to NZ, including WHS, of course.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/storm-clouds-gather-over-retailers-20140619-3ah05.html

[psychic]

As a result, TW Group has revised its guidance given in March 2014 of Adjusted Group Net Profit After Tax (adjusted NPAT) of $67-$71 million down to $59-$62 million.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WHS/announcements/251819

[winner69]

As a result, TW Group has revised its guidance given in March 2014 of Adjusted Group Net Profit After Tax (adjusted NPAT) of $67-$71 million down to $59-$62 million.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WHS/announcements/251819

That really is a shocker of an announcement

Just as things were supposed to be getting better

No doubt comes back to the offer / service and all that stuff

But no worries the divie is safe as houses

[biker]

It makes a mockery of the March placement and SPP. What a rort.
Also I suggest some insiders who had access to this either within or outside and specifically provided by the company, traded on this information earlier this week.

[BlackCross]

Clothing buying department useless. Quality is crap. And yes, somepeople in the know dumping stock earlier this week. Investigation? No chance.

[percy]

Each to their own.If it works for you keep doing it!!
No I am not a holder.Over the past two or three years I have warned that the retail sector is difficult and faces many challenges.I like WHS's strategy.I have them on a watch list,and will consider buying them,once I feel the trend has changed.From the way it looks to me $3.20 may be the support level.Then again it may be the low of $2.50 reached in July 2012. I am not looking to buy at the bottom.I prefer to wait until the uptrend is confirmed.So at present time to safe guard my capital, I will sit on the sidelines.

Pays to wait !!!!
I only posted that two days ago..!!
Retail still not an easy sector.!

[winner69]

At $60m NPAT this will be the worst result since 2006 (8 years ago)

I realised how bad Warehouse performance has really been since 2006 until I looked up the numbers. In 2007 NPAT was $115m and this has steadily declined to the current $60m. Last year 2013 was actually the only year that profit was better than the year prior.

So in spite of changes in strategic direction, acquisitions, range extensions, going more upmarket, store revamps, going online and all sort of stuff each years profit performance has been worse than the year before (except for 2013)

That's some record I reckon.

I still don't believe it but that is what the numbers say

Percy says retail stuffed (or difficult at the moment) and backing perennial losers in such a market is not a good idea.

But the weasel words Simon quoted in an earlier post must mean something. So this time is different eh and 2015 will be a great year for WHS with profits close to $100m

[Buffett Jr]

Far too much stock in the business with not enough turn over.

This leads to vast discounting and burning margin.

Simple really.

[JayRiggs]

The Warehouse have sold enough stuff already. People have bought what they needed. Enough is enough.
But when they get their financial services up and running, that will entice more people to buy more stuff they don't need.

[Snow Leopard]

22-Apr-2014:

I am a bit annoyed at Craigs - they could have waited a day.

I decided to diversify into WHS and come this morning the price has jumped a bit.

So anyway I bought a few thousand shares.

I am working on the assumption that the recent lows of $3.19/ closes at $3.20 provides good baseline support and thus the possible downside risk is low to match the fact that the upside reward in the near time is not epic [surprise me please!].

I seem to be buying more boring stuff at the moment - odd!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

So much for that!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL you guys have the attention spans of hamsters:p... Investing is about marathons not sprints. Retail is difficult...yes...business is slow everywhere....yes. However WHS is in a better space than most retail because they are fast adapters, have multi channel offerings, have a strong brand, have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year. They also recognise and are capitalizing on new ways of shopping and above all have always offered great buying to the NZ public by way of "cheaper than high st" pricing. So is retail dead....no its changing and WHS is not getting left behind because its always shown it adapts well and fast. So what if it has to blow out some lines at cost or just over...punters get a buy, cash flow keeps coming, new stock in and punters are back for more good buying. Buying shares in WHS is always a good idea...when SP takes a dive maybe time to look for a spot/ way in. DYOR and all the other stuff of course.

[samdaman]

I don't know about the WHS, divvy is good but other stocks show better. Profits around the same levels as they have been for yonks. Growth in fact declining in a changing market. Intelligent investors would put more money on a better horse in my opinion I can't see a great lot of reason to stick with these guys.

Maybe if the SP did tank and the dividends held up it may be a reason to buy some up. At current prices for me it just doesn't seem appealing. Warmly welcoming opinions about this company as some seem to like it.

[percy]

LOL you guys have the attention spans of hamsters:p... Investing is about marathons not sprints. Retail is difficult...yes...business is slow everywhere....yes. However WHS is in a better space than most retail because they are fast adapters, have multi channel offerings, have a strong brand, have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year. They also recognise and are capitalizing on new ways of shopping and above all have always offered great buying to the NZ public by way of "cheaper than high st" pricing. So is retail dead....no its changing and WHS is not getting left behind because its always shown it adapts well and fast. So what if it has to blow out some lines at cost or just over...punters get a buy, cash flow keeps coming, new stock in and punters are back for more good buying. Buying shares in WHS is always a good idea...when SP takes a dive maybe time to look for a spot/ way in. DYOR and all the other stuff of course.

On behalf of The Hamster population I must ask the question"why do you Leeemings throw yourselves off the cliff"?
I do agree with your judgement of WHS's fundamentals.However you must get your entry/exit right,
Whether it is marathons or simply getting on the wrong bus,the longer you are on board going the wrong way, the more opportunities you have missed,on making a capital gain and an increasing dividend from a growing business.

[winner69]

LOL you guys have the attention spans of hamsters:p... Investing is about marathons not sprints. Retail is difficult...yes...business is slow everywhere....yes. However WHS is in a better space than most retail because they are fast adapters, have multi channel offerings, have a strong brand, have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year. They also recognise and are capitalizing on new ways of shopping and above all have always offered great buying to the NZ public by way of "cheaper than high st" pricing. So is retail dead....no its changing and WHS is not getting left behind because its always shown it adapts well and fast. So what if it has to blow out some lines at cost or just over...punters get a buy, cash flow keeps coming, new stock in and punters are back for more good buying. Buying shares in WHS is always a good idea...when SP takes a dive maybe time to look for a spot/ way in. DYOR and all the other stuff of course.

Might be true mate.

So WHS fast adapters, multichanneled, have a strong brand and exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

[Beagle]

At $60m NPAT this will be the worst result since 2006 (8 years ago)

I realised how bad Warehouse performance has really been since 2006 until I looked up the numbers. In 2007 NPAT was $115m and this has steadily declined to the current $60m. Last year 2013 was actually the only year that profit was better than the year prior.

So in spite of changes in strategic direction, acquisitions, range extensions, going more upmarket, store revamps, going online and all sort of stuff each years profit performance has been worse than the year before (except for 2013)

That's some record I reckon.

I still don't believe it but that is what the numbers say

Percy says retail stuffed (or difficult at the moment) and backing perennial losers in such a market is not a good idea.

But the weasel words Simon quoted in an earlier post must mean something. So this time is different eh and 2015 will be a great year for WHS with profits close to $100m

+1 I have never liked their tired market offering and N.Z. customers are clearly well and truly "over it". In my view this stock is like Kentucky Fried Chicken...its been around for so long you remember it from your youth. Its a very, very tired old brand and much like KFC you inherently know much of what they sell is no good for you. "The bitter taste of poor quality lingers long after the thrill of a bargain" An old cliche, but a good one and in WHS's case we're talking about an apparent bargain...had a look at K Mart prices lately ?

Noel Leeming will continue to struggle against Harvey Norman who get far bigger rebates from the distributors based on their vastly greater volume. Online continues to grow much like the CEO's salary which at nearly $2m for the level of profit this company makes looks grossly excessive.

[BIRMANBOY]

I'll leave the detailed analysis to you W 69..you're much better at it than me:p. It comes down to whats in it for me on a personal level. For me it has performed extremely well due to good (lucky) timing. I'm prepared to let it run and do its stuff for as long as it keeps me happy. When it doesn't ..I'm off...like now to play some tennis. Keep me posted on developments periodically though...I appreciate it.:)
Might be true mate.

So WHS fast adapters, multichanneled, have a strong brand and exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

[winner69]

Might be true mate.

So WHS are fast adapters, multi channeled, have a strong brand and have exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

Went to a Red Shed and a Stationery and a Leemings today

Methinks all those above mentioned things that Birman said stood WHS in good steed is essentially needed just to survive in a changing world.

Survive means making about as much money as the year before is a good result .....unlike this years pretty sad effort

[winner69]

I'll leave the detailed analysis to you W 69..you're much better at it than me:p. It comes down to whats in it for me on a personal level. For me it has performed extremely well due to good (lucky) timing. I'm prepared to let it run and do its stuff for as long as it keeps me happy. When it doesn't ..I'm off...like now to play some tennis. Keep me posted on developments periodically though...I appreciate it.:)

Will do Birman.

Glad tou mentioned good (lucky) timing with this investment. Without that it would have been a disaster eh

So you really are a trader .....trading prices rather investing on fundamentals.

How the tennis go today? You got Amelie coaching you yet for you assault on Wimbledon?

[BIRMANBOY]

Disaster is a bit tough I think....you have to agree its been pumping out good dividends regularly and also just last year SP was up to 4.40 or something. Its a difficult share to understand and its in a difficult segment so I can see how its not that popular. However in saying that there are a lot of buyers lined up buying shares at the current prices. That tells me that there are probably a lot of investors who see it as a good income stock. I will be back in as well when the SP looks like its turned. I'm not a trader because I hardly ever sell but I do look very keenly at SP and this is one of those times when recent events have been the instigator of selling and we all know there are some people who get spooked very easily and abandon ship hastily. I like a SP that moves a bit since it creates opportunities for both traders to see benefits and holders to pick their moments for best buying. And of course while this all happening , in the background we have a good dividend. I don't ignore fundamentals but I do think they are just one tool in picking a good investment. The most important measurement tool is actual performance for the holder. As for Andy Murray...after several years with Ivan Lendl he's probably needing a bit of a break:p strange choice for a coach but he must have seen something he liked.
Will do Birman.

Glad tou mentioned good (lucky) timing with this investment. Without that it would have been a disaster eh

So you really are a trader .....trading prices rather investing on fundamentals.

How the tennis go today? You got Amelie coaching you yet for you assault on Wimbledon?

[bull....]

im prepared to see if its a one off seasonal thing, maybe they need to plan better as warmer winters are becoming more common these days

[winner69]

im prepared to see if its a one off seasonal thing, maybe they need to plan better as warmer winters are becoming more common these days

This time last year they said 'In spite of one of the warmest winters on record gross margins were up 1.3% to 36.3% their highest in several years'

So what's gone wrong this year?

Their profit shortfall to expectations is about $10m - something that's happened over the last month or so as they were pretty bullish just 6 weeks ago.

That $10m is $10m of stuff to be given away at cost or $15-20m of heavily discounted sales.

You are pretty forgiving bull .....I reckon they don't have their finger on the pulse.

Maybe systemic through the business ........resulting in profits declining over many years (except one lucky year in 2013)

[macduffy]

im prepared to see if its a one off seasonal thing, maybe they need to plan better as warmer winters are becoming more common these days

You may be right, bull, but bear in mind that these profit downgrades are rather like cockroaches - they rarely travel alone!

[bull....]

yea forgiving only once, i say a long time ago i wondered how good there inventory management system is ( or is it the buyers? ) as they always seem to have problems with stock issues

[trackers]

Might be true mate.

So WHS fast adapters, multichanneled, have a strong brand and exhibited the ability to perform well year after year

So why have profits fallen every year except one (last 7 years) and divie is less than few years ago?

Just watching on the sidelines.. But one of the reasons the last few years have been more profitable is through minimal reinvestment into the business to make current profits look better but impact future profits.. They're paying for this now. They've spent quite a bit on store fitouts, rebranding, and stocking a higher quality product in the last couple years, the cost of which has yet to be recovered in profit growth.

I'm nervous about Torpedo7, and the finance arm myself

[Balance]

yea forgiving only once, i say a long time ago i wondered how good there inventory management system is ( or is it the buyers? ) as they always seem to have problems with stock issues

WHS's biggest problem is that it is no Walmart - a one stop shopping destination. It tries to be a bit of everything and lacks scale.

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/WHSVNZX5023062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/WHSVNZX5023062014.png.html)

[winner69]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/WHSVNZX5023062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/WHSVNZX5023062014.png.html)

A lot has happened since 2007 eh Hoop

One could also overlay all the key strategic initiatives / acquistions etc and still its all down hill

Shareprice has essentially followed earnings (what a surprise) - EPS down 50% since 2007

Still on a PE of 16 odd (this year forecast earnings) ..... what will happen if it gets rerated down to 12 or less

[percy]

A lot has happened since 2007 eh Hoop

One could also overlay all the key strategic initiatives / acquistions etc and still its all down hill

Shareprice has essentially followed earnings (what a surprise) - EPS down 50% since 2007

Still on a PE of 16 odd (this year forecast earnings) ..... what will happen if it gets rerated down to 12 or less

I suppose at a PE of 8 "everybody would get a bargain."

[kiwitrev]

James Pascoe Ltd takes 5% stake in WHS-the first ray of sunshine

[winner69]

James Pascoe Ltd takes 5% stake in WHS-the first ray of sunshine

Have they just taken the 5% or just gone over the 5%

Interesting if the Normans have accumulated the 5% recently, ESP seeing they are already bigger than WHS

Great success at taking over dogs these people

Percy - you seem to know the things ....what's up

[kiwitrev]

I read it just over the 5% with on market pchs half million so possibly the balance SPP participation

[percy]

Have they just taken the 5% or just gone over the 5%

Interesting if the Normans have accumulated the 5% recently.

Percy - you seem to know the things ....what's up

No words on the street here in Westport today.
Very surprised as I would have thought the Normans would have their hands full with The Farmers and Whitcoulls.

[BIRMANBOY]

Percy..that's your signal:)...oh very interesting what to do what to do..I was sort of expecting to drop further but that will probably stall if not reverse the drop. If James Pascoe was a public listed co would be buying it but they are privately owned (also own Farmers). Interesting.
James Pascoe Ltd takes 5% stake in WHS-the first ray of sunshine

[percy]

Percy..that's your signal:)...oh very interesting what to do what to do..I was sort of expecting to drop further but that will probably stall if not reverse the drop. If James Pascoe was a public listed co would be buying it but they are privately owned (also own Farmers). Interesting.

It certainly has got very interesting.The Normans now own;The Farmers,Stevens,Whitcoulls and James Pascoe.
They are very committed to Malls,while WHS with Red and Blue sheds and Leemings are more big box retailers.
The Farmers sold their finance company years ago to FPF,and now WHS are developing their own finance company.
I myself would not be investing in any mall retailer.What the Normans are trying to achieve, I believe will be something to do with mall rentals and or finance side.I still do not understand why they brought Whitcoulls,so I too will be watching this space.
As far as the WHS price is concerned.I think The Normans joining the register will put a floor or stop the SP from falling any further.I will be looking for a reversal of the down trend.l

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes also several areas of competition/commonality with clothes etc. through Farmers and jewellery as well through Pascoe's and Stewart Dawson's. I'd like to be a fly on the wall in the meetings...is Pascoe's angling to be bought out by WHS? Is WHS going to use Pascoe's expertise in Jewellery and expand that area.? Watch this space...... well not this space but that space.
It certainly has got very interesting.The Normans now own;The Farmers,Stevens,Whitcoulls and James Pascoe.
They are very committed to Malls,while WHS with Red and Blue sheds and Leemings are more big box retailers.
The Farmers sold their finance company years ago to FPF,and now WHS are developing their own finance company.
I myself would not be investing in any mall retailer.What the Normans are trying to achieve, I believe will be something to do with mall rentals and or finance side.I still do not understand why they brought Whitcoulls,so I too will be watching this space.
As far as the WHS price is concerned.I think The Normans joining the register will put a floor or stop the SP from falling any further.I will be looking for a reversal of the down trend.l

[winner69]

Don't pascoe's have some involvement / helped WHS and their jewellery dept/kiosks

Just a vague recollection of when they were set up

Might be completely wrong .....anybody know?

[BIRMANBOY]

WHS hired an employee from a Diamond importer in Auckland to set up their Jewellery section originally....not sure who is running it now but doubt whether Pascoes was helping...competition.
Don't pascoe's have some involvement / helped WHS and their jewellery dept/kiosks

Just a vague recollection of when they were set up

Might be completely wrong .....anybody know?

[winner69]

WHS hired an employee from a Diamond importer in Auckland to set up their Jewellery section originally....not sure who is running it now but doubt whether Pascoes was helping...competition.

Thanks Birman

When I went to a Red Shed yesterday noticed a shopper looking at the jewellery and a staff member running around shouting 'who around here knows anything about the jewellery'

Maybe the jewellery expert doesn't work Mondays

[macduffy]

Right - so the best guess is that the Normans are going to have some involvement in WHS' jewellery offering, possibly by a Pascoes "store within a store", and need to have some extra skin in the game via a meaningful shareholding?

[winner69]

Right - so the best guess is that the Normans are going to have some involvement in WHS' jewellery offering, possibly by a Pascoes "store within a store", and need to have some extra skin in the game via a meaningful shareholding?

And a Whitcoulls within a store

The Whitcoulls I go to aren't even proper book shops anymore .... more Warehousie type junk in them than books

They could close all their expensive to run book shops down and save heaps

[stoploss]

Right - so the best guess is that the Normans are going to have some involvement in WHS' jewellery offering, possibly by a Pascoes "store within a store", and need to have some extra skin in the game via a meaningful shareholding?

Surely they have considerable knowledge on the clothes side of things as well from Farmers .......

[BIRMANBOY]

One of many possible guesses:scared: Ok if you follow that rationale WHS jewellery sales will be cutting into both Michael Hill and Pascoes and Farmers Jewellery dept but at the lower end. So theoretically Pascoes could influence WHS so they re-align so no more comparable items. OR maybe they want to get rid of competition and believe that a 5% holding may buy some influence? OR maybe Pascoes ...oh I give up...too many possibilities to even think about. Takeover? Who is taking over who? Someone being assimilated? Pascoes has lots of employees and real estate so doubt whether they will be selling out and closing but there has to be something going on there with all the common products etc.
Right - so the best guess is that the Normans are going to have some involvement in WHS' jewellery offering, possibly by a Pascoes "store within a store", and need to have some extra skin in the game via a meaningful shareholding?

[percy]

I think you guys are most probably on the right track with the Normans [Pascoes] looking to safeguard their Jewellery interests,after all that is where their wealth was made.

[BIRMANBOY]

The Jewellery industry is a different beast now than when they started ... you think retail is difficult...retailing jewellery is right up there in the difficulty factor. I have a gut instinct something is going on behind the scenes here that is not apparent yet. Ok I know that is self evident....duuuh.
I think you guys are most probably on the right track with the Normans [Pascoes] looking to safeguard their Jewellery interests,after all that is where their wealth was made.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL are they buying up GXH as well?
The Normans are coming! The Normans are coming! Prepare for pillage!

(sorry about that, I'll grab my coat)

[winner69]

All we need is Jan Cameron to take a 5% stake as well .....sort out the apparel dept

She going to get tens of millions from her avocado business in Tassie soon. After settling her debts with numerous liquidators some left over for WHS

[psychic]

Surely they have considerable knowledge on the clothes side of things as well from Farmers .......

Considerable indeed. They are fully "hands on" too. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. Bit of a riddle..

[stoploss]

Considerable indeed. They are fully "hands on" too. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. Bit of a riddle..
For my money , the hidden value here is the property ( the ones that haven't been sold )The footprint couldn't be replicated for anywhere near $ 3.00 per share. It just needs someone to unravel the messy situation of the two 10% shareholders nursing significant losses and the Tindall Trust .

[winner69]

For my money , the hidden value here is the property ( the ones that haven't been sold )The footprint couldn't be replicated for anywhere near $ 3.00 per share. It just needs someone to unravel the messy situation of the two 10% shareholders nursing significant losses and the Tindall Trust .

Woolworths would love that real estate for any plans they may have in nz, even if it is a hardware chain like Masters to take on Bunnings

Still a takeover premium built into the price I feel

[winner69]

Forecast earnings $60m or 17.2 cents /share

Divie policy is to pay out 75-85%

Jeez that's only 14.5 cents for the full year (13 cents already paid)

But they have promised 19 cents ....whoops

I feel a statement like 'the board has confidence that strong cash flows can be sustained and declare a19 cent dividend'

So you safe Birman ....no cut in income coming

[winner69]

Jeez a guru analyst has an under perform on WHS


http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/warehouse-profit-warning-raises-concerns-about-outlook-core-business-acquisitions-bd-158238

A couple of snippets -

"The downgrade creates concern around the core business and future earnings growth," Forsyth Barr analyst Chelsea Leadbetter said

"Integration of new acquisitions does take time, however missing sales targets at such an early stage of Warehouse ownership does trigger concern," said Leadbetter. "There remains considerable execution risk for Warehouse's Torpedo7 division, as earnings and sales growth is still unproven."

Maybe omnichannel is becoming omnishambles

[kiwitrev]

I think everyone would agree that the current situation is not a good look but here's my take. Management have put in place a long term plan which takes into account the difficulties of being in retail. Therefore the strategy it would seem is to grow sales (at lower margins if necessary) and increase credit sales of the newly announced financial services sector. Going back on the announcements here are the projections. Three to five year plan, grow book value to $600m with bottom line gains $25m-30m. This stock is not for short term traders and if you want to be in it you need plenty of patience. Minimum divies 19c per share 2014/5 if susainable in the short term underwrites current SP with gross div. well over 8%. Difficult to know of the Norman's holding but I suspect nothing sinister possibly just an investment. It's all been said about the complex major S.Holdings so little liklihood of any moves in that direction.

[winner69]

I think everyone would agree that the current situation is not a good look but here's my take. Management have put in place a long term plan which takes into account the difficulties of being in retail. Therefore the strategy it would seem is to grow sales (at lower margins if necessary) and increase credit sales of the newly announced financial services sector. Going back on the announcements here are the projections. Three to five year plan, grow book value to $600m with bottom line gains $25m-30m. This stock is not for short term traders and if you want to be in it you need plenty of patience. Minimum divies 19c per share 2014/5 if susainable in the short term underwrites current SP with gross div. well over 8%. Difficult to know of the Norman's holding but I suspect nothing sinister possibly just an investment. It's all been said about the complex major S.Holdings so little liklihood of any moves in that direction.

Even you would have to admit they have been telling these sort of stories for some time ....just look through all the past presentations, full of change in direction, reposition ourselves, become Omni-channel etc etc

And all through these changes in direction profits (and shareprice) have halved.

All the changes and new things just to stay in the game - not grow

[kiwitrev]

Hi Winner
Can't and don't argue with your point of view. All I'm basically saying is management recognise that the retail industry is and has changed and they putting in place strategies which will protect the business and the main driver will be growth via financial services throughout their traditional Red Shed and add-on businesses which will give them the scale to make this work over time. I'm a dividend guy not a trader so can wait.

[boofters]

Woolworths would love that real estate for any plans they may have in nz, even if it is a hardware chain like Masters to take on Bunnings

Still a takeover premium built into the price I feel

is it just me or are those bunnings stores just placeholders for Coles supermarkets sometime in the future?

[winner69]

Hi Winner
Can't and don't argue with your point of view. All I'm basically saying is management recognise that the retail industry is and has changed and they putting in place strategies which will protect the business and the main driver will be growth via financial services throughout their traditional Red Shed and add-on businesses which will give them the scale to make this work over time. I'm a dividend guy not a trader so can wait.

A dividend guy eh

If WHS stick to their stated dividend policy this years divie will be 15 cents.

You have already received 13 cents

Will you be all that happy with just another 2 cents when promised 6 cents (and even that was lower than last year)

[kiwitrev]

If the divvie does go to 15c I will view it as temporary. Your posts would seem to indicate that entry as these levels is a bad buy. Better tell the Normans of their unwise investment. I think they know considerably more about retail than you or I'

[macduffy]

is it just me or are those bunnings stores just placeholders for Coles supermarkets sometime in the future?

I doubt it. Bunnings is a big earner for Wesfarmers, second only to the Coles business with 2013 EBIT of $904m, Coles with $1,533m. I can't see them gutting what appears to be a successful NZ branch of that business for the right to take on, from scratch, two very sharp NZ supermarket operators in Foodstuffs and Countdown/Woolworths.

[winner69]

I doubt it. Bunnings is a big earner for Wesfarmers, second only to the Coles business with 2013 EBIT of $904m, Coles with $1,533m. I can't see them gutting what appears to be a successful NZ branch of that business for the right to take on, from scratch, two very sharp NZ supermarket operators in Foodstuffs and Countdown/Woolworths.

Bunnings made $1m on $700m of sales last financial year

Looking back over their accounts it looks like they have invested nearly $600m in the big box rollout and are making less profit then when they had had the smallish Benchmark stores

Bunnings CEO was quoted a few years ago that they needed to fix NZ before they even consider any global expansion outside ANZ .... still being fixed by the looks of it

Maybe supermarkets is their exit strategy if they cant beat Mitre 10 / Placemakers

[BIRMANBOY]

WHS is starting to look interesting as a "buy in the dip" trip. 2.80 odd would be a nice area. Some heavy selling going on recently. W69 will be in for some bottom picking eh?:p

[BlackPeter]

Warehouse rising pay levels for experienced staff:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/10372253/Warehouse-workers-to-get-lift-in-wages?cid=edm:stuff:dailyheadlines

Good on them, improving staff retention (of experienced staff) is certainly desirable. Just hope that the share holders see as well some return on this investment - if yes, than others might even follow.

[kiwitrev]

Noticed today a single trade 316500 @ $3.09. The only buyer of any significance of late has been the "Normans" so perhaps they adding to their position. Guess time will tell if SHH filed.

[Balance]

Noticed today a single trade 316500 @ $3.09. The only buyer of any significance of late has been the "Normans" so perhaps they adding to their position. Guess time will tell if SHH filed.

Until there is a wholesale change of directors, ain't nothing is going to change with The Warehouse and its fortunes - a bunch of tired old retailers and directors lost in the retailing space.

Keith Smith especially has to go - he is so well past his used by date he represents a Austin Minor in a world of Hyundai's and BMW's.

[Jim]

Until there is a wholesale change of directors, ain't nothing is going to change with The Warehouse and its fortunes - a bunch of tired old retailers and directors lost in the retailing space.

Keith Smith especially has to go - he is so well past his used by date he represents a Austin Minor in a world of Hyundai's and BMW's.

I agree KS have to go ASAP

[tim23]

I went to the WHS on Sunday, spent some $ as you do, am a holder but I think the format is pretty unappealing, maybe its just the items they sell?

[BlackPeter]

I went to the WHS on Sunday, spent some $ as you do, am a holder but I think the format is pretty unappealing, maybe its just the items they sell?

Agreed - shopping with the Warehouse is sort of a mixed bag. Had over the last 3 months some quite good shopping experiences at one of their newer "Extra" warehouses (Riccarton), but as well some frustrating experiences in one of the older and clearly untidier outlets (Hornby). Maybe its just the local manager - and I think they are overall improving, but they need to work on creating a more consistent positive customer experience across their chain.

[tim23]

They have just changed the layout but not sure what its achieved?

[bunter]

Shop stocks are doing badly overall; might be some fundamental shift in progress, e.g. buying online. Imagine how they'll do if the exchange rate falls more.

[psychic]

It's puzzling though isn't it Bunter, when the likes of the Normans (Farmers, Pascoes etc) buy in?

[winner69]

FY as expected

Looking forward how can it go wrong

In the presentation pack key words -

positioned ....only 2 times
Leverage(d) ...... some 11 times
Growth ......amazingly 19 times

So in the summary I think they are saying they are well positioned to leverage the strategic changes made to achieve growth.

Result they say a better financial performance in FY15

PS - I overlooked the 14 strategy type words. They have a plan

[Balance]

FY as expected

Looking forward how can it go wrong

In the presentation pack key words -

positioned ....only 2 times
Leverage(d) ...... some 11 times
Growth ......amazingly 19 times

So in the summary I think they are saying they are well positioned to leverage the strategic changes made to achieve growth.

Result they say a better financial performance in FY15

PS - I overlooked the 14 strategy type words. They have a plan

Bunch of elderly has-been well past-it directors using old strategies in a competitive ever changing retail landscape.

Next.

[kiwitrev]

And importantly the dividend is intact 6c final and FY 19c as promised as a minimum for shareholder certainty.

[bull....]

quick glance reveals they have margin issues, employee costs big increase, noel leaming not performing as good as harvey norman nz , torpedo 7 poor , red sheds alright but still could do better , warehouse stationary was the best performing unit

[winner69]

Bunch of elderly has-been well past-it directors using old strategies in a competitive ever changing retail landscape.

Next.

Good at using the right buzz words though Balance

Didn't see the words successfully execute though

[winner69]

Bunch of elderly has-been well past-it directors using old strategies in a competitive ever changing retail landscape.

Next.

Good at using the right buzz words though Balance

Didn't see the words successfully execute though

[macduffy]

Yes, it all reads like "well-positioned, profitless growth" using yesterday's outdated model. Time to avoid, IMO.

[Balance]

Good at using the right buzz words though Balance

Didn't see the words successfully execute though

NPAT was $79.7m in 2003 - 10 years ago.

In that time, WHS has had several changes of CEO, formats, strategies etc - and profit today is lower than what it was then!

Now the strategy is acquisitions - more sales but less profits.

So much for the strategic reshaping of the business.

[Beagle]

WHS in my mind is analogous with another tired old brand Kentucky Fried Chicken.
Both brands are really, really old and tired, everyone knows them and has tried them many, many times over and wants something new, fresh, interesting and above all something that's better quality and better for you. Basically what both brands sell is crap or something that's slightly less than rubbish packaged up in a old tired format.
Lame old ducks, both brands IMHO.

[couta1]

WHS is worth a small 5% ish portion of your portfolio IMHO it ain't going away in a hurry and keeps churning out the divvys, KFC may be tired but it still tastes darn good especially after a hard days skiing.

[Beagle]

New Lynn Medical centre in west Auckland here, strategically located their practice within a couple of hundred yards of a KFC branch. My doctor told me its the best business decision he's ever made :D

[Bobdn]

Roger, you might be right about KFC but I love it. I don't get your reference to your doctor, however. It was the "best business decision he ever made"? I would have thought getting his medical degree was because that entitled him to start his business. Was he just being flippant do you think? Even if he was it's still a puzzling comment. It's a tired old brand (according to you) but he "strategically" located his practice there - is it because people love going to KFC and he might get some spin off business? Well that sounds good for KFC. Is it because people get unwell from eating it and have to visit the Doctor - well that still suggests that the business is doing well. Or is it something really simple like KFC has extra parking spaces that your Doctor's patients get to use.

Did you ask him what he meant? If not, can you ask him what he was getting at next time you visit him?

BTW, I hold WHS.

[BlackPeter]

WHS in my mind is analogous with another tired old brand Kentucky Fried Chicken.
Both brands are really, really old and tired, everyone knows them and has tried them many, many times over and wants something new, fresh, interesting and above all something that's better quality and better for you. Basically what both brands sell is crap or something that's slightly less than rubbish packaged up in a old tired format.
Lame old ducks, both brands IMHO.

Can't really comment on the 2 times in my life I've visited a KFC - though I remember the potato mash was terrible - LOL. However, from memory KFC is one of RBD's cash cows ... i.e. nothing wrong with a tired brand (and lousy potato mash), if you can make lots of money with it!

Looking at the Warehouse - it looks like they are renewing their portfolio. Last time I visited them, I saw (some) better quality goods (not just unknown and cheap brands, which fall apart when you just try to use them). As well - The Warehouse is bigger than the Red Sheds. Remember: Noel Leemings, Warehouse Stationary and Torpedo 7 are all part of the Warehouse group as well.

Yes, the Red Sheds will have probably still some time to struggle with the cheap image, and some of their goods are still not up to scratch (but at least the customer service is quite good). Some need as well still an urgent upgrade, but I think that overall their future looks not too bad, as well considering the finance division they added.

I have to admit - they are currently part of my portfolio (and admittedly not the best performer). On the other hand - a good hedge in case the election goes awfully wrong (though the chances for that are IMHO dropping) and I think that their earnings for 2015 and 2016 will improve.

DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy.

[Beagle]

Roger, you might be right about KFC but I love it. I don't get your reference to your doctor, however. It was the "best business decision he ever made"? I would have thought getting his medical degree was because that entitled him to start his business. Was he just being flippant do you think? Even if he was it's still a puzzling comment. It's a tired old brand (according to you) but he "strategically" located his practice there - is it because people love going to KFC and he might get some spin off business? Well that sounds good for KFC. Is it because people get unwell from eating it and have to visit the Doctor - well that still suggests that the business is doing well. Or is it something really simple like KFC has extra parking spaces that your Doctor's patients get to use.

Did you ask him what he meant? If not, can you ask him what he was getting at next time you visit him?

BTW, I hold WHS.

I am sure he was referring to the fact that the extremly high fat content affects many people's stomach's in a negative way or perhaps that sometimes they undercook the chicken with far more serious health effects like i got from them. He was being flippant but on the other hand many a true thing is said in jest and I gathered that there was a positive side effect to being close to a KFC in terms of practice traffic and patient numbers.

Anyway moving on, it looks like the analysts feel that WHS might not be all that flash for people's financial wellbeing
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/de111432/update-warehouse-rated-a-sell-as-investors-await-proof-2015-will-show-return-on-investments.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=UPDATE+Warehouse+rated+a+sell+as+inve stors+await+proof+2015+will+show+return+on+investm ents&utm_content=UPDATE+Warehouse+rated+a+sell+as+inves tors+await+proof+2015+will+show+return+on+investme nts+CID_cd414371e13521edf1ae9b16fccc4e1a&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlede111432update-warehouse-rated-a-sell-as-investors-await-proof-2015-will-show-return-on-investmentshtml

Disc - Don't hold either WHS or RBD

[psychic]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/warehouse-rated-sell-investors-await-proof-2015-will-show-return-investments-bd-162484

UPDATED: Warehouse, rated a 'sell', as investors await proof 2015 will show return on investments

[Bobdn]

Thanks for the links Roger, Psychic. Will keep what I've got but not add to it at this stage.

[Bobdn]

WHS appears to be holding up well in these uncertain times, especially compared to some its more, um, sexier colleagues on the NZX.

[emearg]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/warehouse-rated-sell-investors-await-proof-2015-will-show-return-investments-bd-162484

UPDATED: Warehouse, rated a 'sell', as investors await proof 2015 will show return on investments

It has been a month since that article was published and WHS has held up remarkably well. Actually they have out-performed BGR in the past 30 days.

I'm struggling to see why this would be the case other than WHS is starting to look like a better buy when looking at PE and gross dividend yield. But the longer term prospects aren't incorporated into either of those numbers so presumably WHS buyers/holders are believing the turn around story?

[Jim]

It has been a month since that article was published and WHS has held up remarkably well. Actually they have out-performed BGR in the past 30 days.

I'm struggling to see why this would be the case other than WHS is starting to look like a better buy when looking at PE and gross dividend yield. But the longer term prospects aren't incorporated into either of those numbers so presumably WHS buyers/holders are believing the turn around story?

Watch for next week it could fall below the $3 support line....

[kiwitrev]

Annual report today did not appear to disclose anything not already known apart from: final dividend represents 100.9% of adjusted earnings an increase of earlier stated %. Also just in case this fact is forgotten by all and sundry 67% of all shares owned by top five S/H. Also worth noting today's action on SX last two transactions today totalled approx. 637k so some big $$ being outlaid and cashed up.

[tim23]

As an optimist I wonder if Foodstuffs, Woolworths, Pascoes and Tindall get together and decide that Woolworths make a takeover play?!

[kiwitrev]

Hi Tim
It's been well documented that WW think WHS is a great business and are keen on them however in my humble opinion IF there ever was a T/O it could only be Tindall. Remember it is his baby started from scratch and would be reluctant to see it pass on. I have no idea if he has designs in this direction. Personal wealth would not seem to be high on his agenda but keeping the flame burning could be depending on any succession plan (keeping it in the family).

[macduffy]

As an optimist I wonder if Foodstuffs, Woolworths, Pascoes and Tindall get together and decide that Woolworths make a takeover play?!

What possible motive could Foodstuffs have to assist their arch competitor steal a march on them? The whole purpose of their shareholding in WHS was to prevent just that.

Trying to think outside the square - but failing dismally!

:confused:

[kiwitrev]

The Warehouse Group has detailed ambitious goals to drive its newly expanded portfolio of companies to rival the profits of its core red shed stores.

The NZX-listed retailer has made numerous acquisitions in recent years, including Noel Leeming, R&R Sports and Torpedo7.

Chief executive Mark Powell said the goal to equal The Warehouse stores operating profit was "aspirational".

"I haven't got a crystal ball that'll tell you exactly when it's going to happen," he said. "It wont be achieved in one or two years."

Powell said another facet of The Warehouse Group's strategy was to dominate sales online as well as in stores.

A newly introduced "click and collect" option for picking up online purchases in stores already accounted for 22 per cent of online sales last week, he said.

The biggest change, announced yesterday, is the rebranding of R&R Sports to become physical outlets for online sports store Torpedo7.

Powell confirmed Torpedo7 would remain based in Hamilton, where it had strong roots.

Torpedo7 chief operating officer Aaron Green said one of the main changes to former R&R stores would be the addition of a private label range alongside premium brands.

The price-positioning would be lower than competitor Kathmandu as an entry point, which Green described as more "realistic" on a daily basis than the rival retailer's heavily discounted sales.

Quality of the in-house range would be crucial, he said.

"We're putting Torpedo7 all over it- it's got to be good," said Green. "Ultimately we want customers to leave the store stoked with what they've purchased."

Pricing would also be heavily discounted for loyalty scheme customers, receiving a minimum of 10 per cent off.

Two new Torpedo7 stores opened in Auckland yesterday, and another is planned for Taupo before Christmas.

Green said he was happy with the geographic spread, with the focus now on investing in the former R&R stores.

Wellington was a possible future location, with a strong mountain biking scene.

Torpedo7 also has a strong online presence in Australia, which Powell said could account for as much as 40 per cent of internet sales in any given week.

However, he said replicating a similar multi-channel approach with physical stores was not within the three to five year strategic horizon.

"We want to do New Zealand first. We want to get it working well."

Powell said that decision had nothing to do with The Warehouse's own ill-fated foray across the Tasman.

He also said there were no further acquisitions currently being looked at, and it was time for the business to settle down.

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"There's a lot to do with what we've got now, and that's the focus of the next 12 to 18 months."

The Group's non-core businesses have a long way to catch up to the red sheds' $70-$80 million of annual operating profit, with Noel Leeming and Warehouse Stationery earning roughly $12m each, and Torpedo7 just $1m.

Powell said he "wouldn't pick one out" as having the best growth prospects, but Noel Leeming and a financial services arm had the potential to do well in percentage terms.

The Warehouse Group was criticised by analysts when it bought the electronics chain from private equity in 2012.

While Noel Leeming is now rebranding and updating its store network, it still faces tight margins and strong competition.

"The obsession with margin I think can miss the point," said Powell.

"When you look at overall return on capital, its got as good a return as Warehouse Stationery."

Powell said the point of difference was being run locally rather than out of Australia, with a nationwide footprint and a focus on good service from knowledgeable staff.

The Group's career retail wage policy had already helped improve staff retention "dramatically", he said.

In financial services, the group is winding up its joint venture with Westpac and launching its own range of scheme cards by the middle of next year.

Powell said instalment payment products would also ultimately be brought in-house, with the recent hiring of several former GE executives helping build consumer finance expertise.







- Stuff

[bull....]

proof will be in the results come next year a

[Balance]

Running out of ideas - that's what acquiring other retailers or businesses mean.

The Noel Leeming is a case in point - a highly competitive deflationary retailing industry with low barriers to entry. What does Noel Leeming add to WHS or more to the point, what can WHS bring to Noel Leeming?

[kiwitrev]

I've said it b4 and Powell touched on it in the stuff article the impact of financial services. WHS building a critical mass in sales (at current subdued margins) which will provide a boost to bottom line. The beauty of FS is that it is practically all paper transactions, no inventories, no cash flow issues, no stock control, no additional warehousing required-just click the ticket. Powell says FY2016 to see impact on NP.

[kiwitrev]

SSH notice today, James Pascoe adding to position-yesterday's closing buy for additional 730k shares. It seems the Normans have a plan of some sorts.

[Balance]

SSH notice today, James Pascoe adding to position-yesterday's closing buy for additional 730k shares. It seems the Normans have a plan of some sorts.

They have a hard job ahead - Tindall controls 54% so nothing is going to happen without his agreement. Foodstuffs and Woolworths own around 10% each - and they have gone nowhere in the last 7 years!

[Schrodinger]

SSH notice today, James Pascoe adding to position-yesterday's closing buy for additional 730k shares. It seems the Normans have a plan of some sorts.

They need to sort out Whitcoulls before worrying about WHS.

[Balance]

They need to sort out Whitcoulls before worrying about WHS.

Exactly - getting slaughtered by online retailing.

[percy]

Exactly - getting slaughtered by online retailing.

Have heard their focus for Whitcoulls is more gifts than books. !!!!!! ????????????
I do wonder who sells more books Whitcoulls or The Warehouse.?

[Balance]

Have heard their focus for Whitcoulls is more gifts than books. !!!!!! ????????????
I do wonder who sells more books Whitcoulls or The Warehouse.?

Margins on books are obscene - 200% in most cases. Why you can buy from Amazon Jobs' book at NZ$30 vs Whitcoulls at NZ$43.95 when it was first launched.

Matter of waiting a week and it's delivered - but some people have to have it on first day of launch, of course.

How is Whitcoulls going to replace that margin?

[ratkin]

Just paid a visit to torpedo 7 website, there appears nothing there cheaper than i can buy elsewhere. Its still cheaper to buy from europe even with postage.
Then i thought i would buy some gu gel (energy sachets for running) advertised as 35% off. However i bought the same things cheaper at rebel sport last week.

Very crowded marketplace the fitness/camping/sport stuff

[percy]

Margins on books are obscene - 200% in most cases. Why you can buy from Amazon Jobs' book at NZ$30 vs Whitcoulls at NZ$43.95 when it was first launched.

Matter of waiting a week and it's delivered - but some people have to have it on first day of launch, of course.

How is Whitcoulls going to replace that margin?

They may get 200% on imported remainder books,however on new titles they are buying retail less 45% to 55%.Maybe the odd less 60%. and are taking 60 days to pay.
Amazon and Bookdepository give publishers huge prepublication orders.Makes a huge difference if you have a mil or two or three sold before you print the book,so therefore they get the book at a good price.

[ratkin]

Bought back in on the friday dip,first share i have bought for months. Will hold for the divvies, and something will happen eventually. Seems fairly low risk

[BlackPeter]

Bought back in on the friday dip,first share i have bought for months. Will hold for the divvies, and something will happen eventually. Seems fairly low risk

Hard to say. I used to be optimistic, but retail is currently a tough business and difficult to see where significant growth might come from.

I do see some improvements in (some of the) red sheds - refer to earlier posts. Have no real view on Noel Leemings and Torpedo 7. Warehouse Stationary has in my view still huge improvement potential - when I go there, it is normally possible to count the other customers on the fingers of one hand. More staff than customers is not a healthy ratio in retail. Finance division could over time develop into a nice little earner, but time will tell.

Just looking at the P/E: Forward P/E (assuming a 10% improvement on 2014 - my personal interpretation of their announcement "better than 2014) would be around 15; Divvie is good, but not outrageous.

Still believe the SP has based on above potential for further weakness (but no huge drops anymore), obviously all depends on Pascoes intentions. As long as he buys, the SP will not further drop.

Discl: Reduced my holding some months ago (and took a loss), but still holding some shares ("sitting on the fence")

[ratkin]

Im in no hurry, it lazy money that needed a home. The finance will be where it is at.
Its all very well the great unwashed looking for bargains online, however a big number have to pay for stuff on the never never at inflated prices, and Noel leemings/warehouse in a good position to capture them

[Bobdn]

Im in no hurry, it lazy money that needed a home. The finance will be where it is at.
Its all very well the great unwashed looking for bargains online, however a big number have to pay for stuff on the never never at inflated prices, and Noel leemings/warehouse in a good position to capture them

The "great unwashed" - that's no way to talk about your customers/me. I'm a WHS partial owner (also known as a shareholder) who recently bought travel insurance from the WHS.

[stoploss]

Foodstuffs in Wellington been cashing up property they purchased to stuff up Countdown chain of late . ( at a massive loss ) So maybe they will exit there 10 % share in this at a $ 2 odd discount , then things might start to happen ....

[BIRMANBOY]

They probably make a better % return on the dividends from WHS than they make on their own sales:scared:
Foodstuffs in Wellington been cashing up property they purchased to stuff up Countdown chain of late . ( at a massive loss ) So maybe they will exit there 10 % share in this at a $ 2 odd discount , then things might start to happen ....

[tim23]

Not at $5 a share they paid plus holding costs over the time!

[winner69]

Spose a 1.3% sales growth for red sheds is 'solid' growth

[Biscuit]

not very inspiring, but better than a decline, and margins are also up

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WHS/announcements/257939

Bunch of old men on the Board trying to catch up with the 19th century.

Getting into financial services now - way behind the pack.

Getting into Noel Leeming - others are trying to get out!

Completely out of ideas and out of touch.

Will seriously look at the stock when the likes of Keith Smith are off the Board.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WHS/announcements/257939

Bunch of old men on the Board trying to catch up with the 19th century.

Getting into financial services now - way behind the pack.

Getting into Noel Leeming - others are trying to get out!

Completely out of ideas and out of touch.

Will seriously look at the stock when the likes of Keith Smith are off the Board.

Not sure I would have expressed it that harsh .. but I must agree that despite having implemented some improvements over the recent years (like better brands in the red sheds) they are still quite a mixed bag and certainly lacking the "X"-factor.

Good idea to go into Internet sales - but why does the website have to look that cheap?

Good idea to improve the quality of the products on offer - but why do (at least some of the red sheds) look so similar to cheap two dollar shops (Hornby)?

Good idea to add financial services - but how does Diners Club fit to the typical Warehouse Clientele?

Nothing wrong with offering specialised stationary shops - but why are they always empty ... and not that specialised either?

Overall - I haven't written them off (as a potential future investment, not holding at current) but I think they need to do more to change the culture than to just try to assemble quite different parts into one organisation. I do see a risk that the end result might look like Frankenstein, but who knows, maybe there is a clientele with a preference for said movie?

As well - WHS is a quite cyclical share ... even if they don't do outrageously well ... there is money in buying them cheap and selling them dear. The trick is just to identify in real time when they are cheap (and when they are dear).

[macduffy]

Good idea to go into Internet sales - but why does the website have to look that cheap?


But isn't "cheap" part of The Warehouse's appeal?

;)

[bull....]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/63487424/the-warehouse-to-pull-r18-games-dvds.html

Cant imagine it will have much impact on there business, I found this category price uncompetitive with the cmpetition anyway

[BIRMANBOY]

At current SP it is returning 6% plus imputation credits and has been chunking this out for years. Its one of those shares that if you wait and catch it at the right moment..close to $3 or less ..its going to be a no work/no stress/leave it in the drawer investment. Trying to figure it out is somewhat pointless..it is what it is and I'm happy to leave them get on with it. Returning over 10% PA as a gross div for me. Diners Club card sounds impressive ..will fit the WHS customers perception of themselves. Its an American origin card that very few Americans wanted or used. Looking at the SP history you would have to think there is more upward possibility likely. Over the last 5 years its only gone below 3$ for a one year period. $3 may be the new bottom?
Not sure I would have expressed it that harsh .. but I must agree that despite having implemented some improvements over the recent years (like better brands in the red sheds) they are still quite a mixed bag and certainly lacking the "X"-factor.

Good idea to go into Internet sales - but why does the website have to look that cheap?

Good idea to improve the quality of the products on offer - but why do (at least some of the red sheds) look so similar to cheap two dollar shops (Hornby)?

Good idea to add financial services - but how does Diners Club fit to the typical Warehouse Clientele?

Nothing wrong with offering specialised stationary shops - but why are they always empty ... and not that specialised either?

Overall - I haven't written them off (as a potential future investment, not holding at current) but I think they need to do more to change the culture than to just try to assemble quite different parts into one organisation. I do see a risk that the end result might look like Frankenstein, but who knows, maybe there is a clientele with a preference for said movie?

As well - WHS is a quite cyclical share ... even if they don't do outrageously well ... there is money in buying them cheap and selling them dear. The trick is just to identify in real time when they are cheap (and when they are dear).

[BlackPeter]

At current SP it is returning 6% plus imputation credits and has been chunking this out for years. Its one of those shares that if you wait and catch it at the right moment..close to $3 or less ..its going to be a no work/no stress/leave it in the drawer investment. Trying to figure it out is somewhat pointless..it is what it is and I'm happy to leave them get on with it. Returning over 10% PA as a gross div for me. Diners Club card sounds impressive ..will fit the WHS customers perception of themselves. Its an American origin card that very few Americans wanted or used. Looking at the SP history you would have to think there is more upward possibility likely. Over the last 5 years its only gone below 3$ for a one year period. $3 may be the new bottom?

Hi BB, I agree - if you are happy with the divvie and don't mind too much how your capital account looks like at any point in time, than WHS is more likely than not to return for years coming more than the good old savings account.

Personally however I prefer to hold undervalued stocks paying nice dividends. Looking at WHS - it still pays a nice dividend (though not best in town), but I certainly would not consider them as undervalued. Actually - they are currently ahead of their mean 12 month analyst target (305 with a range of 275 to 320), which means that at least medium term the risk of the SP dropping seems to be higher than the chance of it rising (in the view of the analysts, anyway) ... and if the Christmas season does not shape up as hoped for, they might need to pay parts of this years divi out of the cash flow.

Not sure, how relevant the look into the rear mirror is ("Over the last 5 years its only gone below 3$ for a one year period"). Remember "past performance is no indication for future returns". WHS operates in a quite fast changing industry, and it is everybody's best guess how they will look after the transition. Yes, they used to do in the past well in some transitions, and poor in others (e.g. "conquering Australia"). Yes, they definitely try to change (adding financial division, adding better quality product lines, focussing on staff training and retention), but there is still lots to do (inefficiency, customer perception) and time is running short. And - as indicated before, they clearly miss the "X-factor", it is just not cool to buy stuff in the Warehouse (and not sure about their other brands either).

Personally quite happy to be out (despite selling with a loss) ...

[BIRMANBOY]

Whether the WHS is "cool" is relevant only to people who don't buy there...... the people who drive the ongoing sales and profits are people looking for a bargain. This is why its basically fool proof. NZ is and always has been and always will be full of those people. You and I and others with disposable income are not the target audience. Until wealth is more evenly distributed and the average person chooses to buy quality over quantity, rather than looking for the cheapest possible price, WHS will be as safe as. Selling at a loss always tends to cloud ones judgement. However its your judgement and I don't know the details so cannot argue with your opinion. The SP has had good solid trends so even if one was trading it money could be made if the timing is right. My view is that of a dividend holder so for me it has been an excellent investment..holding a nice capital growth and also giving me a 10% plus return annually. Timing is the key I will admit but buying in the dips has enabled me to keep my average price at 2.84 and that's including some buys at 3.41. Long term picture is important for me not whether I can make a quick buck out of it.
Hi BB, I agree - if you are happy with the divvie and don't mind too much how your capital account looks like at any point in time, than WHS is more likely than not to return for years coming more than the good old savings account.

Personally however I prefer to hold undervalued stocks paying nice dividends. Looking at WHS - it still pays a nice dividend (though not best in town), but I certainly would not consider them as undervalued. Actually - they are currently ahead of their mean 12 month analyst target (305 with a range of 275 to 320), which means that at least medium term the risk of the SP dropping seems to be higher than the chance of it rising (in the view of the analysts, anyway) ... and if the Christmas season does not shape up as hoped for, they might need to pay parts of this years divi out of the cash flow.

Not sure, how relevant the look into the rear mirror is ("Over the last 5 years its only gone below 3$ for a one year period"). Remember "past performance is no indication for future returns". WHS operates in a quite fast changing industry, and it is everybody's best guess how they will look after the transition. Yes, they used to do in the past well in some transitions, and poor in others (e.g. "conquering Australia"). Yes, they definitely try to change (adding financial division, adding better quality product lines, focussing on staff training and retention), but there is still lots to do (inefficiency, customer perception) and time is running short. And - as indicated before, they clearly miss the "X-factor", it is just not cool to buy stuff in the Warehouse (and not sure about their other brands either).

Personally quite happy to be out (despite selling with a loss) ...

[couta1]

Agree BB I'm holding a block at a slightly higher price than they are currently trading at and wouldn't think of selling at a loss as they are a stable dividend hold that are here to stay and a part of NZ culture. I noticed they have just decided as a company to remove all R18 material such as Grand Theft Auto from their shelves on the basis of its graphic violence and sexual content and that it goes against good family and community values, good on them for taking this stand:t_up:

[ratkin]

Agree BB I'm holding a block at a slightly higher price than they are currently trading at and wouldn't think of selling at a loss as they are a stable dividend hold that are here to stay and a part of NZ culture. I noticed they have just decided as a company to remove all R18 material such as Grand Theft Auto from their shelves on the basis of its graphic violence and sexual content and that it goes against good family and community values, good on them for taking this stand:t_up:

The community values around here involve boy racing, legal and illegal highs, petty crime and general antisocial behavior. I would have thought grand theft auto was the perfect game for the warehouse community

[tosspot]

The community values around here involve boy racing, legal and illegal highs, petty crime and general antisocial behavior. I would have thought grand theft auto was the perfect game for the warehouse community

And it is, one of the best games in a long time and the most successful ever almost. Silly move by the warehouse, no matter how small the supposed impact is. There caving into those with to much time on their hands that complain about anything they can. And those tight ass parents who cant separate fantasy from reality.

[BIRMANBOY]

You'll just have to look elsewhere for your cheap thrills ratboy;) However you can bling out your Ford escort, buy great stoner music and practice your shoplifting at the WHS...see...something for everyone. PS I would consider selling up a portion of your share portfolio and moving somewhere else....but then you may have a longer drive to the local WHS...so its a tough call.
The community values around here involve boy racing, legal and illegal highs, petty crime and general antisocial behavior. I would have thought grand theft auto was the perfect game for the warehouse community

[couta1]

And it is, one of the best games in a long time and the most successful ever almost. Silly move by the warehouse, no matter how small the supposed impact is. There caving into those with to much time on their hands that complain about anything they can. And those tight ass parents who cant separate fantasy from reality.
Long term the WHS will benefit from this move, parents should encourage their kids into life's more meaningful experiences like fishing and other great NZ outdoor activities including Motorsport etc rather than watching this absolute trash that gratifies degrading other human beings.

[BIRMANBOY]

So nice to see you taking a few moments away from the gaming console to make a post....now clean up your room before your mother has a fit. Best wishes from your Dad (who used to have a tight ass but has let it go a bit over the last decade).
And it is, one of the best games in a long time and the most successful ever almost. Silly move by the warehouse, no matter how small the supposed impact is. There caving into those with to much time on their hands that complain about anything they can. And those tight ass parents who cant separate fantasy from reality.

[BlackPeter]

...
Selling at a loss always tends to cloud ones judgement.
...


Not sure, where this wisdom is coming from? So - are you basically saying that everybody using a stop-loss has a clouded judgement?

I didn't sell because I had to ... and have no hard feelings against WHS (and shouldn't - if I look at the overall value they added over the years to my portfolio (as divvies, as well as appreciation). Just came to the conclusion that there are at current better investment opportunities around. What's wrong with that?

[BIRMANBOY]

Nothing wrong at all.....however you neglected to mention it was a stop loss so yes, in the presence of more information, the clouds would be much less applicable. Different strategies ..you see limiting downside potential of loss...I see increasing likelihood of good buying. So as a trader where do you see your entry point?
Not sure, where this wisdom is coming from? So - are you basically saying that everybody using a stop-loss has a clouded judgement?

I didn't sell because I had to ... and have no hard feelings against WHS (and shouldn't - if I look at the overall value they added over the years to my portfolio (as divvies, as well as appreciation). Just came to the conclusion that there are at current better investment opportunities around. What's wrong with that?

[BlackPeter]

Nothing wrong at all.....however you neglected to mention it was a stop loss so yes, in the presence of more information, the clouds would be much less applicable. Different strategies ..you see limiting downside potential of loss...I see increasing likelihood of good buying. So as a trader where do you see your entry point?

Not sure whether I can help you with that one ... I don't consider myself as a trader (my average stock hold time seems to hover around 5 years ... but than, this is an average number ... some stocks I hold for longer and others for shorter periods).

Looking at WHS - it just feels some of their improvements take a long time to implement, and others don't really seem to start. I still visit them from time to time and investigate whether "I can get a bargain". Sometimes I do, but more often I leave disappointed and need to go somewhere else.

If I start to find more of the stuff I want to buy at the Warehouse; if they sell e.g. the stuff I want to wear and hold it even in my size (and not just on the first day after the product release); If the customers in the Warehouse Stationary shops are starting to outnumber staff and if both Warehouse as well as Noel Leemings stop to trail the Customer Satisfaction surveys (Consumer Magazine), than it would be IMHO a good time to look again at buying WHS (obviously - if the price is right ...).

[BIRMANBOY]

Fair enough...I really don't care what they do or how they do it or who they do it to..its more about the results as they pertain to me. Simplistic I suppose but keeping it simple is my default option. Leaves more brain capacity for Sudoku and what's for dinner;)
Not sure whether I can help you with that one ... I don't consider myself as a trader (my average stock hold time seems to hover around 5 years ... but than, this is an average number ... some stocks I hold for longer and others for shorter periods).

Looking at WHS - it just feels some of their improvements take a long time to implement, and others don't really seem to start. I still visit them from time to time and investigate whether "I can get a bargain". Sometimes I do, but more often I leave disappointed and need to go somewhere else.

If I start to find more of the stuff I want to buy at the Warehouse; if they sell e.g. the stuff I want to wear and hold it even in my size (and not just on the first day after the product release); If the customers in the Warehouse Stationary shops are starting to outnumber staff and if both Warehouse as well as Noel Leemings stop to trail the Customer Satisfaction surveys (Consumer Magazine), than it would be IMHO a good time to look again at buying WHS (obviously - if the price is right ...).

[tosspot]

So nice to see you taking a few moments away from the gaming console to make a post....now clean up your room before your mother has a fit. Best wishes from your Dad (who used to have a tight ass but has let it go a bit over the last decade).

ahh, the internet where assumptions never end. I raised myself mate. I couldn't be more different. just enjoy a good product, and understand that it is just entertainment. You have to be not all there in the head to believe a game influences real worlds crimes. Those kind of people have that in their personality.

[couta1]

BirmanBoy you must be feeling like a cat that got the cream I mean with MVN rising and the WHS up 2c after a day of going ex divvy so much for boring old marginally profitable stocks that we shouldn't be holding meanwhile the more favoured IFT ends up 27c down after going ex, such irony aye:cool:

[BIRMANBOY]

Hey Couta..as long as those horses keep coming out of the stable and letting me get in the saddle I'm a happy rider.
BirmanBoy you must be feeling like a cat that got the cream I mean with MVN rising and the WHS up 2c after a day of going ex divvy so much for boring old marginally profitable stocks that we shouldn't be holding meanwhile the more favoured IFT ends up 7.5c down after going ex, such irony aye:cool:

[bull....]

still in the downtrend channel , came close to breakout but sold of on there interim results

[kiwitrev]

I didn't see any int. results in last few days. Surely downtrend this week is due to going ex div.-a normal SP move

[kiwitrev]

I didn't see any int. results in last few days. Surely downtrend this week is due to going ex div.-a normal SP move

[couta1]

I didn't see any int. results in last few days. Surely downtrend this week is due to going ex div.-a normal SP move
Yep $3.13 minus 6c divvy equals $3.07 so nothing unusual going on here.

[BIRMANBOY]

Starting to look interesting for some buying...3.03..if it breaks the $3 mark could be in a for a bit of a selloff.

[bull....]

still in confirmed down trend

[BlackPeter]

still in confirmed down trend

Indeed - and not that cheap yet. Shall keep my "powder" dry.

[percy]

Well I have visited two WHS stores during the past week.:
Barrington Store.Went looking for more Nescafe coffee.Could not find it.Helpful assistant told me where it was.Not on special,so did not buy.Thought I would look for a pair of shorts.Most did not have a back pocket for my wallet.Then I thought what am I doing in this "hell hole",and made a quick exit.Still think this store is a mess.
Greymouth Store.Still looking for a pair of shorts.Again I gave up.Possibly a bigger mess than Barrington,yet my wife found and brought what she wanted.!!!
My shorts.Brought a nice pair of smart dress shorts.Do for Christmas day.Side pockets [deep] and good back pocket [with button] for my wallet.Bargain at $25.Well done Postie Plus Greymouth.!!!!!

[BIRMANBOY]

Well Percy that would seem to be suggesting that you would be better off investing in Postie plus...LOL good luck on that. PS you don't fit the WHS demographic so why would they want to stock to your requirements?
Well I have visited two WHS stores during the past week.:
Barrington Store.Went looking for more Nescafe coffee.Could not find it.Helpful assistant told me where it was.Not on special,so did not buy.Thought I would look for a pair of shorts.Most did not have a back pocket for my wallet.Then I thought what am I doing in this "hell hole",and made a quick exit.Still think this store is a mess.
Greymouth Store.Still looking for a pair of shorts.Again I gave up.Possibly a bigger mess than Barrington,yet my wife found and brought what she wanted.!!!
My shorts.Brought a nice pair of smart dress shorts.Do for Christmas day.Side pockets [deep] and good back pocket [with button] for my wallet.Bargain at $25.Well done Postie Plus Greymouth.!!!!!

[Biscuit]

Thought I would look for a pair of shorts.

Whether looking for clothes or for shares, Percy and Birdy, you might be better off looking at HLG. They've also been knocked back in the last year. They have a substantial dividend, and may be set for a faster recovery?

[percy]

Whether looking for clothes or for shares, Percy and Birdy, you might be better off looking at HLG. They've also been knocked back in the last year. They have a substantial dividend, and may be set for a faster recovery?

Thanks Satan.
I notice you have recently joined sharetrader.Welcome.
I am a bit of an "anti Christ" myself.!!
For two,three or four years I have been post warnings about the dangers of investing in retail stocks.Not a kind sector for investors.I have had no reason to change my opinion.!
My warnings on The King Buys Postie Plus threads were spot on.

[BIRMANBOY]

HLG way too illiquid but must admit to liking their dividend. I just cannot believe that it can be maintained so have looked, lusted but left lacking. WHS on the other hand performs well and consistently and though it could be termed retail...its sort of like saying New World is the same as your corner dairy. As Captain Kirk would say.."that's not retail as we know it Jim".
Whether looking for clothes or for shares, Percy and Birdy, you might be better off looking at HLG. They've also been knocked back in the last year. They have a substantial dividend, and may be set for a faster recovery?

[Biscuit]

Thanks Satan.
I notice you have recently joined sharetrader.Welcome.
I am a bit of an "anti Christ" myself.!!
For two,three or four years I have been post warnings about the dangers of investing in retail stocks.Not a kind sector for investors.I have had no reason to change my opinion.!
My warnings on The King Buys Postie Plus threads were spot on.

Thanks Percy. I like to have a little something in every sector. Retail is struggling but there are some successes (BGR). Also, I like the downtrodden, there is always the possibility of salvation around the corner.

[Biscuit]

HLG way too illiquid but must admit to liking their dividend. I just cannot believe that it can be maintained so have looked, lusted but left lacking. .

I guess its the wrong thread. I've picked up a few HLG over the last few months. No debt, strong cashflow, big dividend, oversold if last year was a one-off as management maintain. I have some WHS too, good place to get Mrs Satan a little something cheap for Christmas.

[Bobdn]

Trying to get a sense of what low oil prices might mean for the stocks I hold. I sold my BP shares about six months ago (just lucky). I can't see it making much difference to my Genesis shares but feel free to tell me otherwise on the Genesis thread. Could low oil prices benefit WHS? The analyst in the attached link sees a boon for retailers:

"Disposable incomes in developed economies like the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan are likely to be boosted if prices do remain low, which could prove to be a boon for the stocks of large retailers in these economies. It’s estimated that a $40 fall in oil prices means a transfer of around $1.4 trillion (£896bn) from oil producers to consumers, and the latter group is far more likely to spend the money sooner."

http://www.cityam.com/1418088480/oil-hits-five-year-low-what-does-mean-markets (http://www.cityam.com/1418088480/oil-hits-five-year-low-what-does-mean-markets)

I did my xmas shopping at WHS yesterday and bought myself two very nice pairs of Mitre sports shoes for just $45. Two pairs for $45! And they're of tidy quality! Sales pitch over.

Edit: I meant to add, not intending to buy anymore WHS at this stage. I have quite enough.

[BlackPeter]

Trying to get a sense of what low oil prices might mean for the stocks I hold. I sold my BP shares about six months ago (just lucky). I can't see it making much difference to my Genesis shares but feel free to tell me otherwise on the Genesis thread. Could low oil prices benefit WHS? The analyst in the attached link sees a boon for retailers:

"Disposable incomes in developed economies like the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan are likely to be boosted if prices do remain low, which could prove to be a boon for the stocks of large retailers in these economies. It’s estimated that a $40 fall in oil prices means a transfer of around $1.4 trillion (£896bn) from oil producers to consumers, and the latter group is far more likely to spend the money sooner."

http://www.cityam.com/1418088480/oil-hits-five-year-low-what-does-mean-markets (http://www.cityam.com/1418088480/oil-hits-five-year-low-what-does-mean-markets)

I did my xmas shopping at WHS yesterday and bought myself two very nice pairs of Mitre sports shoes for just $45. Two pairs for $45! And they're of tidy quality! Sales pitch over.

Edit: I meant to add, not intending to buy anymore WHS at this stage. I have quite enough.



Not sure, whether the impact is fully predictable. Obviously - people have a higher disposable income with lower oil prices, which is good for them. On the other hand, they might feel better off and go instead to one of the "better" shops (which would be bad for the Red Sheds, though might be good for Noel Leemings or Torpedo 7). Personally I think the lower oil price will do more good than bad for the WHS, but good could as well mean a slower decline ...

In my view the more important questions are:
- How long until the manage to find their lost X-factor?
- Do they manage to get their product quality consistently up?
- Do they manage in improving their customer satisfaction ratings?
- Do they manage to improve store efficiency (WHS Stationary)?

As indicated in earlier posts - based on my own consumer observations (i.e. not really statistical relevant), I do see patchy progress in some of the stores, but not sure whether it is enough yet to turn the story around.

[kiwitrev]

Two trades totalling 200k shares in last few minutes. Possibly a yield play but only the buyer/s know for certain.

[winner69]

Two trades totalling 200k shares in last few minutes. Possibly a yield play but only the buyer/s know for certain.

Maybe the Normans topping up

Talking of them been in 2 Whitcoulls this week ....the stores make the Warehouse look grandiose in comparison. I believe Whitcoulls are a book shop?

[kiwitrev]

Since the refurbishment the local store (decent size) is well laid out and gives a good impression. On that score WHS have done a good job-now just need to increase margins (they have increasing T/O). I was half expecting the Normans to again be in the market with their million $ dividend but when payday came and went thought I must be wrong-soon find out.

[percy]

Maybe the Normans topping up

Talking of them been in 2 Whitcoulls this week ....the stores make the Warehouse look grandiose in comparison. I believe Whitcoulls are a book shop?

I am told Whitcoulls focus is now a "gift" shop that also sells books!
I think you will see them narrow their book range.

[Bobdn]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/64472275/technical-problems-delay-warehouse-boxing-day-sale

The site is down again this afternoon.

I don't believe for a moment that a company that understands the online environment lets this happen on the busiest days of the trading year. Being a retail investor is hard at the best of times, this is just silly.

Edit: it's up again just now. I think I was a bit harsh, still, nothing focuses the mind like having skin in the game.

[dagoldtoof]

TAB online also down....for a couple of hours,m guess saved some $$....Like HLG, might buy, online sales seem to be moving...

[Hoop]

Its this time of year when the media start analysing companies for those people on vacation who have time to read the papers and think about investments...This time of year retail companies come under the spotlight with preliminary Xmas sales figures...

History has shown when the Market opens for that short week smaller media effected investors has a chance to push the prices around...

So...How does WHS look atm ?.....So far Chartwise WHS is not looking great...there are some weak buy signals but its risky to buy in when the price is touching resistance levels. It has potential to rise up to around $3.15ish area, if there is enough buying pressure unfortunately that is not a huge reward for the risk involved ..If it gets past $3.25 with ample volume it would be considered a bullish breakout and should be firing mass buy signals with decreased risk.
The Downside.. WHS is presently hovering around its lows so care should be taken as that $3.00 support must hold (e.g stay out... or... buy with tight stops if you for some unknown reason want to buy in)

Over the longer term (last 5 years) its been a Bull market cycle non performer.
For me (chartwise) I won't be buying in until there's a breakout (+$3.25) and even then I'm not convinced this stock is going to perform above much preferred others.

I have charted a longer term chart (7 years) and will post it on KW's Using TA to time entries and exits thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits&p=524020#post524020)...It is somewhat complicated and showed (and still showing) an exceptional freaky relationship with Fibonacci numbers and patterns...and for those who can recognise butterfly patterns on a chart there was a huge opportunity for some quick money over a 9 month period (July 2012 to April 2013) when buying in at the predicted bottom!!!

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/WHS24122014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/WHS24122014.png.html)

[mikeybycrikey]

Looks like the weather was against them and an expected rush of electronics sales didn't materialise and something about digital TV switchover.

Why is the weather always used as a credible excuse for retail? Profit estimates being cut to $37m.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WHS/announcements/259586

[biker]

Ahhh, retail. A sector for the very brave or the foolish. ( I admit to being in the latter category) Bailed out of WHS before Christmas anticipating something like this. The risk/reward equation in retail just doesn't stack up IMO.

[biker]

Thanks Satan.
I notice you have recently joined sharetrader.Welcome.
I am a bit of an "anti Christ" myself.!!
For two,three or four years I have been post warnings about the dangers of investing in retail stocks.Not a kind sector for investors.I have had no reason to change my opinion.! ........
.

Spot on Percy

[mikeybycrikey]

A strong kiwi dollar, a mostly buoyant economy, lower petrol prices providing more money for consumers to spend.

Yet it's all headwinds for WHS (and PPL and KMD). Maybe there's something to all those posts that have been calling out WHS management as barely competent.

[BlackPeter]

At current SP it is returning 6% plus imputation credits and has been chunking this out for years. Its one of those shares that if you wait and catch it at the right moment..close to $3 or less ..its going to be a no work/no stress/leave it in the drawer investment. Trying to figure it out is somewhat pointless..it is what it is and I'm happy to leave them get on with it. Returning over 10% PA as a gross div for me. Diners Club card sounds impressive ..will fit the WHS customers perception of themselves. Its an American origin card that very few Americans wanted or used. Looking at the SP history you would have to think there is more upward possibility likely. Over the last 5 years its only gone below 3$ for a one year period. $3 may be the new bottom?

... lets hope they are after the recent announcement still able to pay your juicy divvie ... personally I would think I made in Nov 2014 the right decision when I sold them (at $3.20 or so and with a loss).

[bull....]

what a shocker, there tv ads gave it away for me got me nervous, cant believe how lucky i was to sell out yesterday

[winner69]

Seems a bit of a trend here

H113 was $53m and then $46m in h114 and now this $37m

They did say at the AGM ho headwinds will be factored into the forecast just yet ....obviously no tailwinds either

Online sales going well so that's good eh

[winner69]

Also take heart that H2 NPAT is 'expected' to be 50% up on last year (to get to last years NPAT (before tailwinds and headwinds)

Shareprice recovering, that's good

[Beagle]

The rise and rise of online shopping and there's no stopping the trend. Why bother to fight the trend an invest in a really tired brand with questionable management ?
I've said it before, this brand is really tired, people want fresh and interesting stuff, preferably online. I will confess I went in to my local store just after New Year. What summer stock was left in terms of mens shorts was in a shambolic state, really much of the menswear department was a complete shambles to be honest. I managed to find one pair of shorts in a colour I didn't like and forked out $20 simply because I was in a hurry and couldn't be bothered going to another store. It was only the second time I'd visited a WHS store in the last 12 months and frankly I see no reason to make a return trip anytime soon as my previous trip was also a disappointing experience. (Didn't have the cell phone specials in stock they'd advertised, no staff that had any product knowledge or seemed to even remotely take any interest in finding out when new stock would arrive). My thoughts after two visits.... Life is short, why bother visiting this down-market substandard glorified garage ? I am certain I am not the only customer totally underwhelmed by the WHS shopping "experience".

[winner69]

Roger started this rave What summer stock was left in terms of mens shorts was in a shambolic state, really much of the menswear department was a complete shambles to be honest ...

But couldn't bring himself glossy the whole store was a complete shambles .....and to be honest the whole business is a complete shambles.

Well said Roger

When did Mr Powell start?

[winner69]

Mark started as CEO in May 2011, the same day Ted took over as Chairman

Share price was 365 at that time so he hasn't destroyed too much shareholder value has he.

Dividends of 70 cents more than offset that small decline in shareprice eh Birman

Just setting it up for boom times.

Shareprice back to 300 by end of day methinks

[dingoNZ]

4 years with next to no capital growth and declining sales figures annually in a time where our economy is booming screams to me management is the issue.

[biker]

The rise and rise of online shopping and there's no stopping the trend. Why bother to fight the trend an invest in a really tired brand with questionable management ?
I've said it before, this brand is really tired, people want fresh and interesting stuff, preferably online. I will confess I went in to my local store just after New Year. What summer stock was left in terms of mens shorts was in a shambolic state, really much of the menswear department was a complete shambles to be honest. I managed to find one pair of shorts in a colour I didn't like and forked out $20 simply because I was in a hurry and couldn't be bothered going to another store. It was only the second time I'd visited a WHS store in the last 12 months and frankly I see no reason to make a return trip anytime soon as my previous trip was also a disappointing experience. (Didn't have the cell phone specials in stock they'd advertised, no staff that had any product knowledge or seemed to even remotely take any interest in finding out when new stock would arrive). My thoughts after two visits.... Life is short, why bother visiting this down-market substandard glorified garage ? I am certain I am not the only customer totally underwhelmed by the WHS shopping "experience".

Totally agree Roger. A VERY tired brand, VERY unpleasant shopping experience always, VERY tired advertising, VERY tired staff, cheap goods but not always cheap prices, VERY average management,
And as a result, VERY average shareprice performance. Can't believe Craigs facilitated a placement at 3.20 last year.

[Hawkeye]

I can honestly tell you I have never felt the need to travel to AGM's, im what you lot describe as a mom and dad investor. I pop along to the local infratil updates and thats about it, the rest I can read in the minutes and generally someone from here goes to the meetings of companies I have an interest in and lets me know the overall mood. But these guys need a serious barrel and I may need to fly to the next AGM to deliver it. Whoever in the marketing department thought the warehouse didn't appeal to families prior to late last year needs their head read! Sure they could have made a stand on R18 games GTA been the main catalyst there, but for crying out loud, Game Of Thrones would be worth huge money to them in 2015 but they won't be getting a slice of any R18 top selling movie or show now.

Time for some fresh ideas

[Beagle]

4 years with next to no capital growth and declining sales figures annually in a time where our economy is booming screams to me management is the issue.
Agree but I think the issue goes deeper than that. For what its worth I think customers are sick and tired of being burned by cheap and nasty products at the bottom end of the quality scale.
Honestly if I was MD I'd completely overhaul the brand starting with a name change and I'd try and shift the whole WHS store into mid range general department store products recognising that customers want a better quality shopping experience. I'd change the colour of the stores, ensure the fit-out was lifted, ensure all major brands were represented and look to take advantage of one of WHS's few key assets, Its big store low rent footprint.
I'd leverage the low rent to move it upmarket...Briscoe's are doing well aren't they !!! I'd sack the current advertising agency who are clearly grossly incompetent, engage some real talent and move the tired and dying old brand into the mainstream middle ground before it chokes to death on its own irrelevance. The vast plethora of suburban cheap Chinese corner stores are the new WHS aided and abetted by the junky $1-2-3 stores.

[BIRMANBOY]

Keep talking it down boys.....I'd be unloading at any price if I was you.....backing the truck up now:)

[bunter]

https://www.google.com/finance/domestic_trends

Shows seasonality and steady decline in retail from 05-09.

Seems conventional retail was in decline then and probably still is.

I sold today - think they are a well enough run company at present, but pushing it uphill.

[winner69]

Retail ain't broken in NZ. Stats NZ numbers data still shows steady consistent growth in sales (overseas Internet sales not included). CAGR last 17 years 4.5% pa.

Red Sheds in the Department Stores Sector. Annual sales to March 14 for this sector reported as $4.0m. Not much higher than $3.8m in 2008, 6 years ago.

One factor that has affected Red Sheds is the growth in Bunnings and Mega big box hardware. They have taken a lot of traditional Red Shed business. Other retailers have also done better

Marks repositioning efforts not working (yet?)

Maybe one day they might find a market position ....but then again a successful big box general store in NZ might be a thing of the past.

[winner69]

Keep talking it down boys.....I'd be unloading at any price if I was you.....backing the truck up now:)

Doing my best for you Birman ......maybe 250 in March?

[BFG]

Tomorrow will be more pain, and maybe Friday as well to end the week. Then dead cat bounce. Usually how it works. Certainly wouldn't be backing the truck up so soon after terrible news unless waiting for that bounce...

[Bobdn]

I'll keep holding as painful as it is. This time last year I was down 60K on CNU so I'm use to extreme pain.

Great to see the online side of things doing well. Last night I was comparing WHS's imported brands featured in it's daily Red Alert sales (last night it was $300 watches)
with Amazon and Newegg. WHS was very competitive and sometimes (but not always) cheaper. WHS does feature a lot of parallel imported quality products. I bought some stuff online in the boxing day sale, everything was delivered promptly and I really felt like I was getting a bargain. So online is fine but what to do with the stores?

I'm not adding to my holding at this stage. PostiePlus and Pumpkin Patch have given me the willies.

[biker]

Shareprice back to 300 by end of day methinks

Or not............

[percy]

Or not............

Would appear Birmanboy has a very small truck. lol

[shonen knife]

Seems a bit of a trend here

H113 was $53m and then $46m in h114 and now this $37m

They did say at the AGM ho headwinds will be factored into the forecast just yet ....obviously no tailwinds either

Online sales going well so that's good eh


That's a surprise as their online site is quite frustrating. For example:
http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/TWL-B2C-Site/en_NZ/-/NZD/ViewCategory-Paging?CategoryID=kVkKBTHBT9gAAAEhNQARuO4s&SortAttribute=Name&FilterValue=&SortDirection=asc&FilterValue2=&FilterValue3=&=&=&PageableName=ProductUUIDs&PageNumber=2

They have 25 pages of gaming specials, but a large amount of the items are 'sold out' and are scattered amongst items in stock. It is even worse on the the mobile site as you have to click through to see if the item is actually available or not. I emailed them about adding an 'available' filter which they said is a good idea, but not holding my breath.

In a way it does mirror their physical stores...stuff everywhere and out of place.

DISC. Sold the other month at a loss, but would consider buying back if the SP continues to tank and dividends hold.

[Hoop]

In a word......ugly

In a sentence....Someone forgot to tell WHS that Buy & hold "undervalued" stocks after a stockmarket crash (a la Buffet Style) is the way to go to acquire Capital richness.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/WHS07012015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/WHS07012015.png.html)

[BIRMANBOY]

http://zaronburnett.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/i-chzbgr1.jpg?w=620 (http://zaronburnett.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/i-chzbgr1.jpg)


In a word......ugly

In a sentence....Someone forgot to tell WHS that Buy & hold "undervalued" stocks after a stockmarket crash (a la Buffet Style) is the way to go to acquire Capital richness.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/WHS07012015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/WHS07012015.png.html)

[Beagle]

Doing my best for you Birman ......maybe 250 in March?

Don't know about March but I reckon sometime this year. IMO its going to disappoint again and again...

[BIRMANBOY]

That's true Roger...if you don't buy it at some point...disappointment is inevitable:)

[BlackPeter]

Hi Birmanboy,

I don't think people are saying that WHS will go down the drain (well, not anytime soon) ... and I agree, if they don't go down, than at some stage they are likely to come up again. However - looking at the consistent drop in NPAT, looking at the hardly moving sales numbers, recognising that they don't seem to manage to fix their well known problems, looking at the consistent SP down trend and looking at the indicators ... why do you think it is a good idea to buy WHS shares now?

[BIRMANBOY]

Short answer is lower the SP the higher the yield....if you don't buy when the SP is low how can you expect to get superior yields? Depends on your investing philosophy however so my thoughts/rationale are relevant to myself only.
Hi Birmanboy,

I don't think people are saying that WHS will go down the drain (well, not anytime soon) ... and I agree, if they don't go down, than at some stage they are likely to come up again. However - looking at the consistent drop in NPAT, looking at the hardly moving sales numbers, recognising that they don't seem to manage to fix their well known problems, looking at the consistent SP down trend and looking at the indicators ... why do you think it is a good idea to buy WHS shares now?

[BlackPeter]

Short answer is lower the SP the higher the yield....if you don't buy when the SP is low how can you expect to get superior yields? Depends on your investing philosophy however so my thoughts/rationale are relevant to myself only.

true - but only, if they are able to keep paying their dividends, otherwise the yield is tanking as well. Unless they have in the second half an amazing turnaround in earnings, their promised divvies will be higher than their earnings. How do you think they are going to fund that?

[MAC]

In a word......ugly

In a sentence....Someone forgot to tell WHS that Buy & hold "undervalued" stocks after a stockmarket crash (a la Buffet Style) is the way to go to acquire Capital richness.

Well then, the Oracle could be right or a guy on the internet called Hoop could be right.

I think you may find that Mr Buffet would not have regarded WHS as undervalued in 2009, it’s about fundamentals and value not where the share price is, or if it has just dropped or risen. Stock picking is everything.

Buffett style ‘ buy and hold’ investing as you refer to it as, has created the world’s most wealthy people. Couldn't name a single TA billionaire off the top of my head though.

[BIRMANBOY]

Then you should absolutely not buy if you are worried about that...in fact if you hold you may well want to think about bailing out before it gets worse. And it could. Me.. I don't worry...Too many good things around to even think about it.
true - but only, if they are able to keep paying their dividends, otherwise the yield is tanking as well. Unless they have in the second half an amazing turnaround in earnings, their promised divvies will be higher than their earnings. How do you think they are going to fund that?

[Longhaul]

Well I would hold off buying into a downtrend, even if the yield is improving. Just my 2 cents.

[Tomtom]

Time for some fresh ideas In a sense gty

[percy]

Then you should absolutely not buy if you are worried about that...in fact if you hold you may well want to think about bailing out before it gets worse. And it could. Me.. I don't worry...Too many good things around to even think about it.

Always interesting watching someone who follows the Alfred E Neuman philosophy of investing;"What,me worry?" lol.

[Beagle]

I would have thought the drop in petrol price would have materially assisted the disposable income of the typical WHS customer ?

[Tomtom]

Time for some fresh ideas We should be very impressed with WHS. Given what a shambles the stores are, how poor their reputation is (my kiwi girlfriend often recites "The Warehouse, where everything you buy is broken.") and how tough retail has been they've done quite well.

That's sort of the value proposition here isn't it? This is still a company that could still be turned around relatively quickly.

[winner69]

Well then, the Oracle could be right or a guy on the internet called Hoop could be right.

I think you may find that Mr Buffet would not have regarded WHS as undervalued in 2009, it’s about fundamentals and value not where the share price is, or if it has just dropped or risen. Stock picking is everything.

Buffett style ‘ buy and hold’ investing as you refer to it as, has created the world’s most wealthy people. Couldn't name a single TA billionaire off the top of my head though.

If Buffett had regarded it undervalued in 2009 when WHS earnings $80m I suppose he wouldn't regard it as undervalued today with earnings of say $55m ....with share price about the same?

[MAC]

Whom may predict what an oracle may think. I don't hold or research WHS, so it wouldn't be thus fair to make any comment on WHS valuation, in respect for holders.

[BFG]

Buffett style ‘ buy and hold’ investing as you refer to it as, has created the world’s most wealthy people. Couldn't name a single TA billionaire off the top of my head though.

Right, that seals it. My life goal is now to become a TA billionaire just to make MACs comment invalid :D :D :D

Disc - may not make a billion but I know I'll make a million one day. We Canadians are very persistent :)

[MAC]

I wish you well and hope you prosper Moosie, you may be young enough to get there at careers end, perhaps philanthropy will suit you too. I’d rebuild the cathedral if $67M became loose change, each to their own.

[winner69]

Right, that seals it. My life goal is now to become a TA billionaire just to make MACs comment invalid :D :D :D

Disc - may not make a billion but I know I'll make a million one day. We Canadians are very persistent :)

Go for it BFG

As my food hero Marco "Success is born out of arrogance, but greatness comes from humility"

[bull....]

Be interesting to see how long they can maintain current dividend with margin and profits falling

[BIRMANBOY]

The SP drop seems to be flattening out somewhat although the buyers appear to be losing interest a little or at least waiting for a bottom. Could be still some ways to go.

[Beagle]

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=WHS.NZ
4 analysts have downgraded WHS in the last week.
Now only 1 hold, 4 under-perform ratings and 1 sell rating.
Consensus EPS for 2015 is only 16.54 cps.
At $2.70 with the track record of this company the market is presently saying its worth a forward PE of 16.3 times 2015 earnings.
I can totally relate to why analysts have their current ratings.

Very interesting to compare WHS with Kathmandu which recently announced a slowing in the rate of sales growth.
KMD consensus eps for 2015 according to Reuters is 19.29 cps and their SP closed today at $1.90. This gives a 2015 PE of 9.85 with their, (in my opinion), better track record.
Consensus analyst view on KMD is outperform.

If we applied the same 9.85 PE multiple to WHS we'd be looking at a SP of only $1.63 :eek2:
Room for substantial further deterioration in WHS's SP ?... you be the judge.
Disc, don't own either stock at present...might be interested in KMD after it stops dropping.

[Bobdn]

It's a nasty business and I do respect your comments Roger. Still, I'll just hang on in there as I always do. I have a "responsible" amount of WHS in the context of my overall net worth so I'm not in the same position as I was with Chorus. In other words, I'm sleeping at night, it still hurts nonetheless ;)

I do like the WHS, I never buy a company I don't like, and I did buy an excellent watch from the Warehouse's website this morning. It was featured on it's daily Red Alert sale. Despite what some people believe, the Warehouse parallel imports some top brands. The watch is a G-shock GW1000 Aviation model. It cost $499. The best (and I mean the absolute best) price I could have got from Amazon was $529NZ. The best price from NZwatches? $609. How about Christies Jewellers in your local mall? $750.

I'm so excited about my purchase. Here's a review of the watch if you're interested. It won't be to everyone's tastes but it is to mine. Just a pity we don't have an atomic clocks in NZ to calibrate the time "Multi-Band Atomic Timekeeping (US, UK, Germany, Japan, China) Receives time calibration radio signals which keep the displayed time accurate"

http://www.ablogtowatch.com/casio-g-shock-aviation-gw-a1000-watch-review/

[couta1]

Such is the fickle nature of retail it would only take one good sales period to send the price back over $3 much the same as Sum aye Roger, its a scary coincidence that you valued Sum at $1.63 a while back and now the Warehouse, obviously I have to disagree with you on this stock also but no offence mate:cool: Disc- Holding at $3.27 buy in price.

[noodles]

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=WHS.NZ
4 analysts have downgraded WHS in the last week.
Now only 1 hold, 4 under-perform ratings and 1 sell rating.
Consensus EPS for 2015 is only 16.54 cps.
At $2.70 with the track record of this company the market is presently saying its worth a forward PE of 16.3 times 2015 earnings.
I can totally relate to why analysts have their current ratings.

Very interesting to compare WHS with Kathmandu which recently announced a slowing in the rate of sales growth.
KMD consensus eps for 2015 according to Reuters is 19.29 cps and their SP closed today at $1.90. This gives a 2015 PE of 9.85 with their, (in my opinion), better track record.
Consensus analyst view on KMD is outperform.

If we applied the same 9.85 PE multiple to WHS we'd be looking at a SP of only $1.63 :eek2:
Room for substantial further deterioration in WHS's SP ?... you be the judge.
Disc, don't own either stock at present...might be interested in KMD after it stops dropping.
The big difference between KMD and WHS is their growth strategy.
1. KMD expands their single brand into new territories (AUS/UK)
2. WHS acquires new brands in a single territory (NZ). Peter Lynch would call this "deworsification"

So for this reason , I'm with you Roger. While I don't own either, I'd prefer exposure to KMD at a pe=10, than WHS at a pe=10 (now 16).

Couta. What was your reason for buying WHS? Does that reason still hold valid?

[couta1]

Noodles I bought WHS as a divvy stock so that reason still holds valid plus I like the company:cool: Also hold KMD.

[Beagle]

Such is the fickle nature of retail it would only take one good sales period to send the price back over $3 much the same as Sum aye Roger, its a scary coincidence that you valued Sum at $1.63 a while back and now the Warehouse, obviously I have to disagree with you on this stock also but no offence mate:cool: Disc- Holding at $3.27 buy in price.
No offence taken but I would however point out that I haven't valued WHS per se, I'm just making the comparative observation against where the market is presently valuing KMD. I'll leave it for others to decide where they see fair value for WHS but at least you all know where the analysts are presently sitting and which stock I think is more reasonably valued / prefer, (see comment below)


The big difference between KMD and WHS is their growth strategy.
1. KMD expands their single brand into new territories (AUS/UK)
2. WHS acquires new brands in a single territory (NZ). Peter Lynch would call this "deworsification"

So for this reason , I'm with you Roger. While I don't own either, I'd prefer exposure to KMD at a pe=10, than WHS at a pe=10 (now 16).



You're on to it mate and I agree 100% with what you've said. I also think KMD is a better play in terms of their adventure / outdoor range of products playing into the tidal wave of comfortably well off baby boomers looking to get back to nature / engage in healthy activities. Further I don't think its a tired brand like WHS is. Perhaps we can continue discussing on the KMD thread, (not my intention to annoy WHS shareholders), as I'm not sure I want to have any exposure at all to retail but KMD is starting to look attractive.

[bull....]

looks like going to test lows around 2.50 soon

[BFG]

looks like going to test lows around 2.50 soon

Agreed. Also looking extremely oversold as well. Ripe for a bounce back up a bit? Got any names for the dead kitty it will spawn?

http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Awhs&x=0&y=0&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

[bull....]

http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Awhs&time=11&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15&x=38&y=11

not quite so oversold on the weekly, also i think they may have to cut div at some stage

[BFG]

http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Awhs&time=11&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15&x=38&y=11

not quite so oversold on the weekly, also i think they may have to cut div at some stage

Different strokes for different folks ;)

[Chaowee88]

Such is the fickle nature of retail it would only take one good sales period to send the price back over $3 much the same as Sum aye Roger, its a scary coincidence that you valued Sum at $1.63 a while back and now the Warehouse, obviously I have to disagree with you on this stock also but no offence mate:cool: Disc- Holding at $3.27 buy in price.

And such is the fickle nature of retail one bad sales period will send this stock down to $2. It beyond belief why anyone would consider this undervalued in the current retail climate with a forward P/E of approx 15 in an declining sector. Enough said. Far better stocks out there trading at cheap P/Es with better dividend yields particularly on the ASX.

[percy]

I hope the Normans did not buy on margin!

[couta1]

And such is the fickle nature of retail one bad sales period will send this stock down to $2. It beyond belief why anyone would consider this undervalued in the current retail climate with a forward P/E of approx 15 in an declining sector. Enough said. Far better stocks out there trading at cheap P/Es with better dividend yields particularly on the ASX.
And such is the nature of the share market, anyone who thinks any stock is safe is in dream land to a certain extent the whole thing could turn to custard in quick time with certain world events occurring such as a major war in the middle east, such is the nature of the beast we entertain:cool: PS- I dont do ASX only NZX

[stoploss]

I hope the Normans did not buy on margin!

Forget about them , what about the 2 supermarket chains

who have 10% each .... North of $ 5.50 from memory ..... Serves one of them right
for being anti competitive IMO and blocking the other one .... Before the comm com did
the rest of the damage ......

[percy]

Forget about them , what about the 2 supermarket chains

who have 10% each .... North of $ 5.50 from memory ..... Serves one of them right
for being anti competitive IMO and blocking the other one .... Before the comm com did
the rest of the damage ......
Karma!!???
I expect the supermarkets will be passing around the hat to their suppliers to support their WHS share losses.!!!

[BFG]

Extremely oversold near term and resistance to selling below $2.60 with thin asks now. I'm in fir a dead kitty bounce :)

[Baa_Baa]

Extremely oversold near term and resistance to selling below $2.60 with thin asks now. I'm in fir a dead kitty bounce :)

Good luck BFG, if you're buying now. $2.50 is 2012 support at the all time low. This is down from $7.30 in 2007. There's got to be a reason for the tide to just keep on going out, year after year for this company.

[BFG]

Good luck BFG, if you're buying now. $2.50 is 2012 support at the all time low. This is down from $7.30 in 2007. There's got to be a reason for the tide to just keep on going out, year after year for this company.

Not in for a long time, just for a good time ;)

[winner69]

Anything less than 250 will be a price not seen since last century

[bunter]

Agreed. Also looking extremely oversold as well. Ripe for a bounce back up a bit? Got any names for the dead kitty it will spawn?

http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Awhs&x=0&y=0&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

Bit lame but how about Deka - a retail chain that died 30 years ago.

[couta1]

Not in for a long time, just for a good time ;)
Well played Moosie:cool:

[BIRMANBOY]

Huh? Tide comes in and goes out last time I checked. Just like the SP..goes up and goes down... and the reason ....market sentiment combined with emotion and an occasional smattering of facts.
Good luck BFG, if you're buying now. $2.50 is 2012 support at the all time low. This is down from $7.30 in 2007. There's got to be a reason for the tide to just keep on going out, year after year for this company.

[BIRMANBOY]

So how good was it?
Not in for a long time, just for a good time ;)

[BFG]

So how good was it?

Better than that depressing party over on PEB!

Disc - still holding, a day or two more upside to come imho :)

[BIRMANBOY]

Still trading as a matter of fact......changed the name to Farmers...and it was 2001 which is 14 years. However since this is not an exercise in pedantic narcissism, there is an element of truth in that the Normans (who own Farmers) are a major shareholders in WHS. Now how's that for truth is stranger than fiction!!
Bit lame but how about Deka - a retail chain that died 30 years ago.

[BIRMANBOY]

Humble or hopeful?
Better than that depressing party over on PEB!

Disc - still holding, a day or two more upside to come imho :)

[BFG]

Humble or hopeful?

Humbly hopeful :)

[bunter]

Extremely oversold near term and resistance to selling below $2.60 with thin asks now. I'm in fir a dead kitty bounce :)

IMO losses will swamp winnings for traders who try to pick and trade short term (days / weeks) moves, especially moves against the trend.
The trading costs, slippage and trend will kill you. Especially with shares, as opposed to currencies and futures.

[winner69]

Deka was the old McKenzies

The Warehouse killed Deka

wiki says several Deka stores were rebranded Farmers, including 6 in the South Island

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEKA_(New_Zealand)

[BIRMANBOY]

I'm afraid to admit that I remember shopping in McKenzies......may God have mercy on my soul. The names may change but the buildings and type of business live on providing employment for countless Kiwis. Leading me to the point that WHS isn't going anywhere and is probably positioned more favourably to handle occasional drops in business. Dare I say it better than Kathmandu, Briscoes, Hallenstein Glassons etc. Anyway as W69 points out the SP is reaching a place of "interest". So has Moosie picked the POMBP (point of maximized bottom picking), or is 2.50 just a few days away.
Deka was the old McKenzies

The Warehouse killed Deka

wiki says several Deka stores were rebranded Farmers, including 6 in the South Island

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEKA_(New_Zealand)