PDA

View Full Version : WHS - Warehouse Group



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

craic
07-05-2004, 09:53 AM
WHS
07/05/2004
QUARTER

REL: 0942 HRS The Warehouse Group Limited

QUARTER: WHS: Third Quarter Sales Up 9.5%

1.0 Group Sales (all sales expressed in NZ dollars)

The Directors of The Warehouse Group Limited report that unaudited sales for
the thirteen weeks ended 2 May 2004 were $493.5 million. This figure is 9.5
percent, or $42.7 million, above that for the corresponding period last year
of $450.8 million. Sales for the thirty-nine weeks ended 2 May 2004 were 12.2
percent ahead of the same period last year.

2.0 Operational Results (all sales expressed in local currency)

2.1 The Warehouse New Zealand

The Warehouse New Zealand retail stores recorded unaudited sales for the 13
weeks ended 2 May 2004 of $325 million. This represents a 7.6 percent
increase in sales over the $302 million achieved for the corresponding period
last year. Same-store sales increased 5.0 percent in the period.

In the third quarter The Warehouse extended two stores at Greymouth and
Napier. As at 2 May 2004, The Warehouse New Zealand retail chain consisted of
80 stores representing 384,227 square metres of retail space (an increase of
8.9 percent over the prior comparable period).

"After achieving good sales growth in February and March, we have experienced
what we consider to be a weather related slowdown in sales in April.
Unusually dry conditions and have resulted in slow sales in our winter
seasonal lines such as heating and apparel. Assuming we get a "normal" winter
I would expect to see some recovery in sales in the seasonal lines in the
coming months." said Mr Stephen Tindall, Founder and Acting Managing Director
of The Warehouse Group Limited.

In the current quarter, The Warehouse New Zealand plans to open four new
stores. A replacement store at Westcity (Henderson) opened on 6th May, while
three stores will open in new locations at Dargaville, Snells Beach and Te
Kuiti. The Waipapa store (near Kerikeri) that was due to open in July will
now open in the first quarter of the 2004/05 financial year.

Weighted average sales per square metre for the twelve months ended 2 May
2004 were $3,862 (April 2003: $3,872).

2.2 Warehouse Stationery

Warehouse Stationery achieved unaudited sales for the thirteen weeks ended 2
May 2004 of $51.0 million. This represents a 26.2 percent, or $10.6 million,
increase over the corresponding period last year. Excluding
Business-to-Business (B2B) sales, same-store sales increased 17.9 percent in
the period.

As at 2 May 2004 the Warehouse Stationery retail chain consisted of 41 stores
representing 54,145 square metres of retail space (an increase of 17.9
percent over the comparable period last year).

Warehouse Stationery is currently completing a market trial of a new
mega-store format launched in December 2003 at Whangarei. No new stores were
opened during the quarter. Two further new format stores (Upper Hutt and
Henderson) are planned to open before the end of July 2004.

Excluding B2B sales, weighted average sales per square metre for the twelve
months ended 2 May 2004 were $3,620 (April 2003: $3,142).

2.3 The Warehouse Australia

The Warehouse Australia achieved unaudited sales for the thirteen weeks ended
2 May 2004 of A$103.1 million. This represents a 3.6 percent increase in
sales over the corresponding period last year. In Australian dollar terms,
same-store sales increased by 0.6 percent.

"As indicated in February 2004, merchandising issues have meant we will
continue to have a weak pipeline of product available. This is reflected in
the modest sales growth for the third quarter and will continue until the end
of July 2004. We expect that the work now underway to rebuild merchandising
capability in the Australian business will begin to show results in the first
quarter of the 2005 financial year," said Stephen Tindall.

During the quarter, two new format stores were opened in new locations
(McDowall (QLD) and Lithgow (NSW)). Four old format stores were closed during
the quarter.

As at 2 May 2004 The War

Risk
07-05-2004, 10:05 AM
Australia is still having a negative influence on results...and management is still telling us it will get better.

trendy
07-05-2004, 11:05 AM
The red sheds are looking very "red" on the board today already down 9c.

Placebo
14-10-2004, 03:11 PM
Been having slightly happier times lately but now sliding south again. Looking like it will break through $4. A psychological barrier?

Risk
14-10-2004, 03:43 PM
the chart doesnt look good....the price continues to drop and is below a lot of short and long term moving averages.

I was tempted to buy some in mid July, but decided against it until Australia shows some definite improvements.

I agree that a break below $4 might seriously be threatened this time.

14-10-2004, 03:54 PM
THE KING says Risk read THE KING inside tip its got your ANSWER.. [^]

Gryffyn
14-10-2004, 03:55 PM
Sure heading there isn't it.

craic
14-10-2004, 06:07 PM
I started this thread - but I bailed out of WHS ages ago and now its just another shop to me.

njc
14-10-2004, 06:58 PM
Down another 6c (1.4%) today.

Did I read this correctly? - that Director Peter Inger dumped $440,100 worth of shares over the last week.

Granted he holds 2.6M more but that's no small change!

----------------------------------------------------------------

WHS
14/10/2004
RELINT

REL: 1332 HRS The Warehouse Group Limited

RELINT: WHS: Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests

DISCLOSURE NOTICE
Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests
(Section 19T, Securities Markets Act 1988)

A. Disclosure obligation (tick box to note which disclosure obligation
applies)

Ongoing disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, E, F and G of this notice)

B. Preliminary
1. Name Peter Glen Inger
2. NZX company code of issuer WHS
Name of issuer The Warehouse Group Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable)
4. Position you hold in the issuer Chief Executive Officer, The
Warehouse NZ
5. Date of this disclosure notice 14-Oct-04

C. Nature of relevant interest Relevant Interest 1
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security (as required by regulation 6A(b)
or regulation 7(b)) Peter Glen Inger
7. Class and type of security (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8)
Ordinary shares
8. Nature of relevant interest in security (as required by regulation 6A (a)
or regulation 7(a)) Beneficial interest

D.

E. Transaction (for ongoing disclosure)
10. Date of last disclosure (as required by regulation 13)
7-Oct-04
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s) (as required by regulation 9)
7 to 13 October 2004
12. Number of transactions (as required by regulation 12(2), if applicable)
2
13. Nature or type of transaction (as required by regulation 11(1)(a))
On market sale of 105,000 shares
14. Consideration (as required by regulation 10) 440,100
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type (as required
by regulation 8) 2,750,000
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal (as required by
regulation 11(1)(b)) -105,000

F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type (as required by
regulation 6B or regulation 8) 2,645,000

Lawso
14-10-2004, 07:26 PM
quote from craic:

quote: I started this thread - but I bailed out of WHS ages ago and now its just another shop to me.
Me too. Very happy to have sold out @ 462. Today 409 I think.

Gryffyn
14-10-2004, 07:46 PM
but what price would tempt you back in?

Risk
14-10-2004, 08:15 PM
this may sound strange to some, but I'd buy them at over $4.70, but NOT at current levels around $4.00.

johna
14-10-2004, 10:41 PM
The $4 support seems to be very strong. Buying at that and selling at 4.50 would have been a good strategy lately. A stop loss at about 3.98 would also seem pretty prudent!

Barrel Scraper
14-10-2004, 11:03 PM
the way I see it, the WHS sp will head upwards on good news...

Oz turnaround = good news
Bale out of Oz = Good news
no news = continuation of the current trading range.

in the meantime I'd be with you Johnna - though 405c to 410 would be a good enough entry point for me - out 10% later, unless their was some good news in the meantime of course !
oh, and I'd have to support a 3.95 stop loss too :)

15-10-2004, 08:38 AM
THE KING says every share has a price when value seems to appear thats the time to grabe just do not fall in love with it,, THE KING looked at Ware in Parapaeaumu after 3 months away well it has more stock than ever and growing right up to every wall must have a lot of money tired up in the stock but buyers where there it is a good on going story.. [^]

Mean while across the new court stands BGR in all its new glory just doing the same THING.. [^][^]

swirlyworld
15-10-2004, 09:35 AM
Sold my WHS yesterday at $4.12; glad to see the back of them [B)]. My guess is that good news from Oz will turn things around, I'd be buying some then if the price has stayed nice and low and there isn't something more deserving of my hard earned $$$$. Not holding my breath for good news stories however.
Can't help thinking that WHS has nowhere left to go in NZ. They're putting stores in marginal places which, to some degree, might detract from nice profitable operations in the main centres.

15-10-2004, 12:17 PM
THE KING says more people jump good ship WHS and this time hope its not the CEO again well one sale of 300,000 @ $4.05 changed hands bringing in $1,212,000 a very tidy sum makes the old knees knock what, But price holds and has not yet sliped below $4.00 must make holders very nervious.. [^][^]

blackcap
15-10-2004, 01:17 PM
Will be interesting to see if the price drops below $4 as to how fast it will drop from there. All those stop losses triggered at once :)

Might even happen today.

A self fullfilling prophesy?

marinesalvor
15-10-2004, 01:35 PM
any buyers left if those 3.95 stop losses all kick in?

Gryffyn
15-10-2004, 02:06 PM
Line up some buying then.

thereslifeafter87
15-10-2004, 02:16 PM
I wouldn't buy WHS at over 10x earnings at the moment...

If they slipped under that, could be a definite contrarian play...

winner69
16-10-2004, 08:23 AM
Remind you that 4th quarter salesa were dismal

Red Sheds up 7.3% - same store 4.2%
Stationery down 5.6% with same stores down a whooping 17.3%
Australia down 6.3% - same stores down 7.5%

Maybe the 1st quarter sales following the same trend and that is what is causing the latest weakness. Early November will this be confirmed?

When you consider that the Red Sheds 2nd half profitability was behind the prior year what real hope is there of improved profits this year?

Price deflation is a killer for the likes of WHS - especially when operating costs are going up.

Look at one of their recent catalogues - prices this year compared to 'last years price' are highlighted throughout. Something I saw was $75 this year compared to $88 last year - thats a lot less $ margin for WHS as well and the indications are they are not selling heaps more units to make up the shortfall.

Thats happening in the Red Sheds - the profit engine - not good news

Blue things sales didn't look too good in the 4th quarter did they? and the margins are getting pretty thin

And then there are the Yellow things - maybe losing less than the past? or does the spiral down continue?

With all this in mind isn't 400 expensive?


But then with all this money sloshing around it has to find a home somewhere - fundamentals don't matter

16-10-2004, 12:32 PM
THE KING says the top 20 shareholders own 77% of Co there are 164 people making over $100,000 WITH the top bloke getting $1,330,000 this adds up then come the Rents on 249 stores before the $1 of profit we know its big in NZ but small in AUS so some better clear signals have to arrive soon other than % reports to support the current S/PRICE.. [^][^]

Gryffyn
21-10-2004, 07:53 AM
Testing $4 support now. Like many I think this could be good recovery share and have been waiting for some indication that the bad news has stopped. Of course, the real money is to be made or lost in buying before the next set of concrete news.

marinesalvor
21-10-2004, 08:14 AM
still not convinced about Australia gryf - have asked friends to go and check some of the Queensland stores and they refuse to visit! not a good sign

Gryffyn
21-10-2004, 08:21 AM
Indeed. I do remember though that you bought in last time the price got doen to around 410 and then it went North for a while before its recent plunge. Have you bailed on them or still holding?

marinesalvor
21-10-2004, 08:25 AM
got out of 3/4 of them at 437 - so enough to keep me interested - though have seen lack of commitment and ideas from management in last few months - a very bad sign. I love the NZ business (though since Kmart and Mitre 10 Mega came to town I am not often at a redshed) but I think the price is far to high - for some reason I have 3.20 in my head

Gryffyn
21-10-2004, 08:28 AM
3.20! Wow, I think I'll be in earlier than that but yet to really crunch any numbers. Sub 4 seems worth waiting for in case that triggers a dive.

marinesalvor
21-10-2004, 08:31 AM
3.20 is low yes - but look at ratios!! other places for my cash!!!

Gryffyn
21-10-2004, 08:32 AM
Fair enough. Right now I'm just panning ahead a little in case I get out of TWR but no hurry.

marinesalvor
21-10-2004, 08:52 AM
I'd suggest aussie stocks while the dollar is so close to theirs - I am into their biotechs... its nice to visit their agms while over the ditch, you get to ask nasty questions!

airedale
21-10-2004, 10:41 AM
Hi Gryff, I am watching Millers Retail MRL on the ASX. If WHS does the sensible thing and pulls out of OZ then my pick is that MRL will benefit.As well as WHS itself, of course.
Discl: HOLDING TWR MRL

trendy
21-10-2004, 01:32 PM
Not long now and it's under the magic $4.00 mark

Placebo
21-10-2004, 02:04 PM
Crikey it's like watching a bouncing hand grenade in slow-motion. You know as soon as it hits below 4.00..... ka-boom!! Stop loss selling frenzy!! [:p][:p]

blackcap
21-10-2004, 02:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Crikey it's like watching a bouncing hand grenade in slow-motion. [:p][:p]


Nice one Placebo. Is it going to happen today? Not a bad strategy would be to short down to 3.99 and see what happens. Cound be quite profitable.

Anyone got any stock they want to lend me?

huds
21-10-2004, 02:45 PM
This is the most significant slide in the share price since Feb half year loses were leaked out which resulted in the trading halt.
What bad news awaits?

Gryffyn
21-10-2004, 03:49 PM
Thanx MS, AD. Concur on the Oz idea while $ high.

MPC
22-10-2004, 08:31 AM
Running out of it with WHS though Belgarion. Believe I might be better off taking this loss and trying to recoup it elsewhere rather than waiting for them to either pull out of Oz, get Oz going profitably or announce some new strategy to turn it around. Was a great company but seems to be stuck at the moment.

Cheers,
MPC

swirlyworld
22-10-2004, 10:31 AM
If I am interpreting the recent disclosure notices correctly it looks like CEO Peter Inger is dumping his shares. On Oct 10th he sold 105,000 and then another 378,000 on October 14th. Thats about 18% of his total shares owned on 10th Oct.
I'm new to this trading lark and the notifications take a bit of getting used to, so correct me if I'm wrong.
If the CEO doesn't want WHS shares, why should anyone else?

22-10-2004, 11:06 AM
THE KING says Your right in every Dept.. [^][^]

23-10-2004, 08:57 AM
THE KING says never BUY shares on a long weekend this is a good time for BAD news, But yesterday the large turnover was not hard to notice large sellers but large buyers around $4.01 its good money for NZ.. [^]

It seems some one with large pockets wants the price to hold now this is where you need inside INFORMATION.. [^][^]

donner
23-10-2004, 10:57 AM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING


It seems some one with large pockets wants the price to hold now this is where you need inside INFORMATION.. [^][^]


Funny you say that King. I have been thinking that there is organized support being exercised on this one for quite some time. I have a feeling it may be coming from Amro's.

blackcap
23-10-2004, 11:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

donner, aggree that their seems to be 'organised support' but I have no idea where it is coming from. As I've posted before, At 4.00 WHS is way overvalued including Oz and undervalued with Oz excluded ... And my gut tells me that WHS will fight it out in Oz ... and eventually win. It just won't be this year. Sub $4 is a certainty.


Agree too. One wonders if those crossings at $4.00 were "real" transactions or just pseudo ones to make it appear like there was a large buyer at $4.00. Call me a cynic but it looked too good to be true.

Cheers

thereslifeafter87
23-10-2004, 09:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Remind you that 4th quarter salesa were dismal

Red Sheds up 7.3% - same store 4.2%
Stationery down 5.6% with same stores down a whooping 17.3%
Australia down 6.3% - same stores down 7.5%

Maybe the 1st quarter sales following the same trend and that is what is causing the latest weakness. Early November will this be confirmed?

When you consider that the Red Sheds 2nd half profitability was behind the prior year what real hope is there of improved profits this year?

Price deflation is a killer for the likes of WHS - especially when operating costs are going up.

Look at one of their recent catalogues - prices this year compared to 'last years price' are highlighted throughout. Something I saw was $75 this year compared to $88 last year - thats a lot less $ margin for WHS as well and the indications are they are not selling heaps more units to make up the shortfall.



Winner, sorry about late reply, but remember the effect of the strong dollar.

Their margins may be at similar levels as they will be paying less in $NZD terms for imports.

winner69
24-10-2004, 07:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87
[br .....but remember the effect of the strong dollar.

Their margins may be at similar levels as they will be paying less in $NZD terms for imports.



The strong dollar is the problem.

WHS seem to have a cost plus selling mentally - so lower product costs are passed on to consumers

Margin %age stay the same - $ margin goes down .... unless they sell heaps more units ... and they don't appear to be doing so

While expenses such as wages and store overheads go up WHS makes less than before .... even the Red Sheds made less in the second half of last year than the year prior.

WHS unlike the likes of HLG who keep the benefits of lower import costs for themselves

25-10-2004, 10:48 AM
THE KING says this so call "Organised support" which somehow dose stand out could after consideration be the No 1 shareholder Mr T.. direct holds 27.54% but with others around 50% control.. [^]

Not knowing his personal bis arrangements could need to hold a certain price to stop a possible Bank call, so to throw a few Million in you own company would not go astray ANYWAY.. [^][^]

26-10-2004, 07:45 AM
THE KING says we will have to see what GOES on today BONG.. [^][^]

blackcap
26-10-2004, 09:06 AM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says we will have to see what GOES on today BONG.. [^][^]


I see there is another related party notice out today and Mr Head Honcho is selling more shares.

Not a good look if you ask me.

marinesalvor
26-10-2004, 09:10 AM
bizarre - why doesnt Tindall tell him to stop!!

PGL
26-10-2004, 09:11 AM
Obviously doesn't understand the concept of Captain going down with ship

26-10-2004, 10:56 AM
THE KING says we get all these SELL notices but never get who BUY notices as there is only 4 holders over 5% this company has a mix,mash of tiny holders 18,304 in TOTAL.. [^][^]

k1w1
26-10-2004, 12:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by bongo66
How can that be King when insiders like Greg Inger are selling largish amounts for crissy presents...

B


Your Majesty, I bet he buys them at KRK's not the WHS

26-10-2004, 01:27 PM
THE KING says at KRK prices he may have to sell the lot,, besides a fellow in his position is pretty WEAK to sell and say nothing to the TROOPS, including the BOARD who is proberly selling TOO.. [^][^]

Placebo
26-10-2004, 01:34 PM
quote:And my gut tells me that WHS will fight it out in Oz ... and eventually win

A little optimistic Belg? I agree they'll continue to slug it out in Oz, but my view is that they will keep hitting their head against the brick wall until common sense dictates they pull out to save what little value they have left.

Long-term (and like you this is a gut feeling) WHS will be a NZ and NZ-only company, after having tried to work in Aust and failed. They are giving it until 2006 (at the earliest) to reassess Aust ops. It will take a turnaround of massive proportions (and big $$$ spend) to make money in Oz. It's been 4 years so far, not a bean. The ink is all red. Meanwhile margin squeeze on here in NZ.

There's no doubt in my mind Australia is an albatross around WHS's neck. I'd love to be a fly on their boardroom wall. The new pommie chief exec has walked into a difficult environment, clearly the board is committed (determined) to push through Oz at any cost. Bull-headed (pig-headed?). I'd love to know his private view on this, as an outsider coming in. I regard myself as a relative outsider, I look at their problems and wonder why they don't just cut their losses. Is this smart business. Yes the long-term rewards are potentially large but how long do you keep trying to make it work?

This WHS board has already pushed out one CE (Muir) over Oz. How long before they take down another?

k1w1
26-10-2004, 01:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says at KRK prices he may have to sell the lot,, besides a fellow in his position is pretty WEAK to sell and say nothing to the TROOPS, including the BOARD who is proberly selling TOO.. [^][^]


Ah yes Your Majesty, when one sells to the hoi poloi and not the cost conscious lumpen proletariat one can hold one's margins by not passing on the Kiwi $ savings to the ruling class.

Specially as all the others are doing it as well in their little boutiques. When you are the only game in town at the quality end of the market, well why not, I say. Its what that Buffett chap refers to as a moat, I think.

Warehouse, warehouse, full of never mind the quality look at the price peasants.

"Keep on fawning and you won't have to sell awnings"- thats how we KRK's shareholders like to see things done.

26-10-2004, 02:26 PM
THE KING says if you can SELL your KRK`s to someone you can always BUY 2 of BGR for 1 KRK that sounds better and collect a bigger DIV..[xx(][xx(]

clearasmud
26-10-2004, 03:24 PM
That U bid at $4.00 must be a on behalf of an insto desperately trying to prevent the sp from falling into the abyss

blackcap
26-10-2004, 03:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by clearasmud

That U bid at $4.00 must be a on behalf of an insto desperately trying to prevent the sp from falling into the abyss


Your not wrong there. Do you think it was put there by WHS insiders?

But she is gone now. When will it go below $4.00

thereslifeafter87
26-10-2004, 04:10 PM
Honestly,
Anyone who is still holding this company, unless you would be prepared to buy more at current prices you should now be selling.

Take your loss like a man and move on.
There are greener pastures. This share does not care about you, it does not owe you anything.

Calculate your possible returns from this company, and compare them to other shares and you will see that it is silly to hold onto WHS just because you are in the red.

As for KRK... Why would anyone buy such a thing?

k1w1
26-10-2004, 05:07 PM
Someone bought 178,000 KRK today. There are none left. Has MacDunk tracked down their truck depot ?

madmike
26-10-2004, 06:17 PM
bought 3 items at snells beach today.....only got charged for 2....nice $20 discount.....thank you mr inger.....didn't say anything as the shares owe me more than that...not the first time their pricing system has been incorrect ie wrong prices on products....oh no ......not another stock system problem!!!???...share price drop ahead!!!!????

26-10-2004, 07:11 PM
THE KING says only GOD must be on the side of this MANAGEMENT.. [^][^]

PGL
26-10-2004, 07:19 PM
God's busy with George Bush at the moment, leave him alone!

johna
26-10-2004, 10:12 PM
Well, actually, madMike, that's theft, so I wouldn't be boasting about it.

marinesalvor
27-10-2004, 09:49 AM
my goodness at 400 - who thinks it will tip over the edge today??!!!!

27-10-2004, 12:13 PM
THE KING says yet another notice from so called Non-Executive Director somehow he gave his shares to himself & wife but thats the easy bit in end he may or maynot own some where range of 2,394 to latter 625 you work it out..[^]

Next because THE KING cannot download the Co meeting details along with 23 pages of changes, Bet there up to NO good but said this is for our shareholders benifit, Well when the smoke clears, Like last nite in the Pearl Harbour movie..

Meanwhile the price HOLDS.. ??? [^][^]

marinesalvor
27-10-2004, 12:37 PM
its clinging there by its toenails surely your majesty??

was just in downtown WHS standing room only - if they ever sorted OZ this woudl be a good comapny

MPC
27-10-2004, 04:50 PM
I'm out and heading for greener pastures. Held on too long but will be watching with interest to see the future of this company in Oz.

Cheers,
MPC

28-10-2004, 08:24 AM
THE KING says will this be the day like to know the Bloke who paying for this stand and WHY.. [^]

marinesalvor
28-10-2004, 08:29 AM
maybe its Tindall??

Gryffyn
28-10-2004, 08:46 AM
Maybe someone is getting a bargain!

28-10-2004, 08:48 AM
THE KING says Already said this fact back on the 25/10/2004 and still feel he would be the only person who has a major WORRY.. [^]

Bubble Boy
28-10-2004, 08:53 AM
Are you shorting WHS, Kingy?

28-10-2004, 12:08 PM
THE KING says BB you must be stupid by NATURE.. [^]

Bubble Boy
28-10-2004, 12:35 PM
Stupid is as stupid does.[^]

01-11-2004, 08:44 AM
THE KING says Well there have been movements at the Ware over the last 12 months this is a brief as follows :-

1. THE top 20 holders have sold down between them 12 million shares
@ approx $4.50 = $54 million.

2. The top 20 now holds 71.43% down 4%.

3. There are now 1902 new holders in the lowest holding 1-1,000 that means lots of little people can now say i am a Warehouse owner much to the big boys Delight..

4. More people in the South Island and Wellington have become the Owners..

5. But Mr Tindell raised his own holding up .1% to 27.61%..

6. Five new boys now over $100,000 to 169, top man up $400,000 to $1,770,000 nice work..

To sum up this share is a licence to print money for the big boys as the new holders will have NO say in running things or able to bring change, [ lots of advice in here ] and we can look forward to another 12 months of the same, So BUY at RISK..

Watching at Paraparaumu THE KING

Bubble Boy
01-11-2004, 02:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING


To sum up this share is a licence to print money for the big boys as the new holders will have NO say in running things or able to bring change, [ lots of advice in here ] and we can look forward to another 12 months of the same, So BUY at RISK..



Sounds like just about every other listed company out there. Why is WHS any different??

What about BGR? The Duke has 75% of the shares. Small shareholders have a lot of say. ;)[8D][^]

Gryffyn
04-11-2004, 02:06 PM
easing back down now and it's not even ex-div yet. Wonder what the support levels will be after that?

05-11-2004, 07:29 AM
THE KING says as it has been explained before this is a CONTROLED stock ther will be NO upside and posible NO downside because of those 19 top twenty people, if the stock dropes they BUY when it rises to balance the books SELL,, thats National Nominees main BIS or you should know is its Sir John Tempelton of Franklins if you dont know you should learn MORE.. [^][^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 07:33 AM
And you shouldn't be so patronising when working with supposition.

There is still a lot of equity on the market and the people you say do not have unlimited pockets. If what you say is true why then was the price allowed to fall from $5 and higher to $4 mr court jester?

05-11-2004, 07:44 AM
THE KING says Read whatever you see into this situation, But this is New Zealand and Sir John could buy the place if he felt the need, but this is how he works world wide he will tell you just look at most large p/coy`s holding lists and you will see his name, But WHS also has 18 other greedy stake holders, Rest THE KING case and learn more about stock TRADEING.. [^][^][^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 08:08 AM
You still haven't explained why if it is a controlled stock that it was allowed to drop from $5. I'll rest on my own laurels as an investor thanks. Don't see myself learning anything here.

05-11-2004, 08:15 AM
THE KING says NO free lessons given to anybody DO your own LEARNING..

[^][^][^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 08:16 AM
Explanation still required to support your conspiracy theory...

05-11-2004, 08:36 AM
THE KING says Belive it or NOT... [^][^][^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 08:44 AM
Can't find belive in the dictionary so I'll go for not.

You would appear to be squirming when asked to justify an unreasonable statement.

05-11-2004, 08:45 AM
THE KING says THE END... [^][^][^]

Bubble Boy
05-11-2004, 08:50 AM
Griffyn, THE COURT JESTER seems to have a STRANGE fascinatioin with talking DOWN WHS shares, conspiracy theories and CAPITAL letters. :D[^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 08:53 AM
Ha ha, yes indeed. I guess this is why monarchies lost their power and we went for democracy - too much royal inbreeding bad for the brain.

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 08:57 AM
But wait, lets assume for one mad moment that his theory is right and that a cabal of investors are working the market to keep the price above $4.

Surely then WHS is the best buy on the market! Powerful shady friends will guarantee that you don't lose any money and that there is only upside.

So if the theory is correct, the jester should be selling other retail stocks and buying this one. Strange - seems to be taking the opposite stance. Conclusion - doesn't believe his own unsupportable conspiracy theory.

Disc: No WHS myself but constantly tempted. Also am a BGR holder and accumulator.

05-11-2004, 09:00 AM
THE KING says there will always be FIVE Kings in the World,, Four in the Playing cards and one in the BRITISH EMPIRE.. [^][^][^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 09:04 AM
More royal ramblings. More failure to address two simple points that have been made. It would appread that WE ARE NOT AMUSED.

05-11-2004, 09:07 AM
THE KING says THANKS.. [^][^][^][^]

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 09:16 AM
You're welcome :) Fridays are a bit slow and it's good to have the court jester prancing around making a fool of himself to entertain us.

I'd have said "pull the other it has bells on" but actually it's the joker - 3 in the world, 2 in a pack of cards and one here on ST ;) that has them :D

If you get around to explaining:
1. why they didn't keep the price up at over $5

or

2. why WHS isn't a good buy if it is being supported above $4

then I'll take you more seriously, but right now your posts have as much relevency as the monarchy does.

05-11-2004, 09:35 AM
THE KING says yet again THANKS... [^][^][^][^]

trendy
05-11-2004, 09:39 AM
Mr King....as another ex Paraparaumu resident you have disappointed me. :(

05-11-2004, 09:41 AM
THE KING says SORRY... [^][^][^][^]

duncan macgregor
05-11-2004, 09:46 AM
BAD sign guys company share price dropping management pay hikes. MACDUNK

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 09:52 AM
Yes but I think the biggest hike was due to Tindall taking the helm, i.e. that amount would have been paid the the CEO if he'd stayed.

Other mgmt got less based on performance I note.

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 09:53 AM
Tindall's pay soars for taking the reins
05 November 2004
By ANNA JAQUIERY

Stephen Tindall, the founder of The Warehouse, nearly tripled his annual salary in 2004 to $594,000.


But someone at the discount retailer, probably former chief executive Greg Muir, was paid more than $1.7 million in the past year.

As acting managing director of The Warehouse group, Mr Tindall saw his salary go from $200,000 in 2003, to $594,000 in 2004.

According to the company's annual report, one employee's remuneration and other benefits amounted to between $1.77 million and $1.78 million.

The Warehouse declined to name that person.

Mr Muir, who left The Warehouse in July 2003 after handing in his resignation, declined to say if he was the recipient.

Mr Tindall's increase was granted after he took on the interim role in May 2003. He consequently became a non-executive director, and as such, gave up his director's fees, Warehouse spokesman Phil Jamieson said. The remuneration committee decided to raise his salary. The increase was temporary, and would not be maintained now that Mr Tindall had stepped down.

AdvertisementAdvertisementIan Morrice has become managing director and chief executive. Mr Tindall will remain on the board as non-executive director.

The annual report showed that Peter Glen Inger, who heads The Warehouse New Zealand, saw his salary fall slightly, from $547,000 to $534,000 between 2003 and 2004. Both Mr Tindall and Mr Inger were non-executive directors of the group.

Mr Tindall was also the company's largest shareholder in 2004, holding 84,358,283 ordinary shares on August 1, or 27.61 per cent of the company.

The second-biggest shareholder was the Tindall Foundation, set up in 1995 by Mr Tindall and his wife Margaret. The foundation held 66,323,220 ordinary shares, or 21.71 per cent of the group.

In September, The Warehouse reported widening losses in Australia and said it was scaling back its expansion there. Losses in Australia tripled to A$32 million, from A$11 million in the previous financial year. This was in line with the company's expectations.

The group's shares have fallen 50 cents, or 12 per cent in the past two months, to $4.13.

Mr Morrice was named managing director and chief executive in August and took up his position on October 1.

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 09:55 AM
Still a well governed company compared to many in NZ where huge non-performance salaries abound and golden parachutes are insult upon injury.

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 09:57 AM
Shame about the stuff up in Oz though eh.

Capitalist
05-11-2004, 10:15 AM
Quite right Gryff. It is a well run, good solid company and is held in some esteem by the offshore guys. A lot of the pessimism is quite irrational. Not that I'd buy it just yet though ;)

Gryffyn
05-11-2004, 10:26 AM
Same cap, money working well elsewhere but it may be the next good recovery stock so sometime soon I may get in.

huds
05-11-2004, 10:28 AM
Yeah it’s funny that how people are pessimistic about loosing money, can never figure people out.

whatsup
05-11-2004, 10:49 AM
Heard from a good source that things maybe turning around in Aussie, me not a ramper ,dont hold WHS.

duncan macgregor
05-11-2004, 10:53 AM
WHATSUP, It is normal for it to turn round before it goes down the gurgler. [The AUSSIE bit I mean]. MACDUNK

marinesalvor
05-11-2004, 12:57 PM
Aussie still a disaster - am in QLD tomorrow - will visit some stores

Burgerbun
05-11-2004, 01:35 PM
Its easy to turnaround a cash bleeding op when youre in the red.


LOOK a 50% improvement!!! negative $10,000,000 (03 - $20m);)[:p]


Cant see Aus coming around that fast myself...

Its the sole reason for loosing $1,200,000,000 off the market cap.

poor Bongo, hes been oh so quiet lately.



The BLUE SHEDS IN NZ SURPRISED ME:(

whatsup
05-11-2004, 01:46 PM
Was told that some of the signs of change are there (in Aussie)wont be a huge turn around, big losses still expected, but a change in some things never the less.

winner69
07-11-2004, 07:20 PM
Remember sales announcement on Tuesday

If you believe this quarter has been a boomer better get in quick on Monday

Might open 450 on Tuesday

07-11-2004, 07:23 PM
THE KING says this company has the best PR & TV adds in NZ that is ALL..[^][^][^]

rmbbrave
08-11-2004, 12:48 PM
I would prefer WHS to be one of the most profitable companies in NZ rather than the most "socially responsible", but it is better than nothing I suppose.

Warehouse gets top social responsibility rating

08.11.2004
1.00pm
SYDNEY - The Warehouse Group has been adjudged New Zealand's most socially responsible company by Melbourne-based ratings company RepuTex.

The independent rating agency assessed the social responsibility of 93 of the Australia's top 100 companies and the top 20 New Zealand companies, releasing its results today.

It started rating Australian companies last year and this year included New Zealand firms.

The top five Kiwi companies were the The Warehouse, Carter Holt Harvey, Telecom, ACC NZ and New Zealand Post.

RepuTex examined the companies' activities and policies in four areas -- corporate governance, environmental impact, social impact and workplace practices -- over the past six months.

Each company received a rating of either AAA (outstanding), AA (high), A (satisfactory), B (low) C (very low or D (inadequate).

The Warehouse's overall rating was AA minus, while Carter Holt Harvey and Telecom received an A plus and ACC and NZ Post an A.

Other New Zealand ratings were:-

A minus: Genesis Power Ltd, Meridian Energy Ltd.

B plus: Fisher and Paykel Appliances Holding Ltd, Fletcher Building Ltd, Mighty River Power Ltd.

B: Air New Zealand Ltd, NGC Holdings Ltd, Tenon Ltd.

B minus: Contact Energy Ltd, Trust Power Ltd.

C plus: Affco Holdings Ltd, Alliance Group Ltd, Fonterra Co-Op ltd, Nuplex Industries Ltd.

RepuTex said it had insufficient information on which to base a rating for Wrightson Ltd.

Its highest accolade for Australian companies went to Westpac, with a triple AAA rating.

RepuTex said the bank worked hard to ensure all its policies were communicated to employees and its ethical standards were promoted through comprehensive training.

Companies with a AA rating were Australian Postal Corporation, BHP Billiton, Energex, Hewlett-Packard Australia, IBM Australia, Insurance Australia Group, National Australia Bank, Queensland Rail and Visy Industries.

RepuTex chairman Graeme Lee said most companies were recognising the importance of corporate social responsibility.

"Many have a dedicated a team of staff to manage social responsibility and the number of companies publishing comprehensive social reports continues to grow," he said in a statement.

"Companies and the community are recognising that they need each other to be sustainable."

Telecom, which was previously rated through its Australian entity AAPT showed a marked improvement from 2003, largely due to the introduction of enhanced reporting systems, the ratings agency said.

Its rating of New Zealand companies disclosed some innovative work practices.

"For example, NZ Post applies a preferential employment status to women who resign after maternity leave and seek to be re-employed within 5 years," RepuTex said in its report.

"As an alternative to the company's co-contribution to retirement savings, at the rate of 1.5 times the employee contribution, an employee may use a similar contribution matching scheme to pay off student debt."

Bling_Bling
08-11-2004, 01:49 PM
I am no expert chartist, but from what I can see from the graph WHS is heading lower.

Any expert chartist can give us advice?

08-11-2004, 02:49 PM
THE KING says if they like or feel they know something think again if they are folling Carter Holt Harvey,, Prob NZ WORST.. [^][^]

Risk
08-11-2004, 04:07 PM
Bling Bling, WHS has found support around $4.00 several times in the past, and if it breaks much below that level, a lot of TA's would be selling (if they havent done so already...which they probably have)

Phaedrus
08-11-2004, 07:19 PM
Bling Bling,
I doubt that I can tell you anything that you do not already know, but here is an updated WHS chart. Trendline break Buy signals are marked with green arrows, trendline break Sell signals are marked by red arrows. As Risk points out, there has been good support for WHS at around $4.00 and any clear break below that would be very bearish. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that the Support will hold and that WHS will go into a trading range. Only a guess, mind, but mine is as good as anyone elses! Notice how most every time a secondary downtrend approaches the $4.00 support level, volume spikes up - it takes volume to reverse a trend.
Notice how for about a year now that most all high volume days are down days. (red bars) There is still a lot of negative sentiment about this stock.
I cannot see that any TA trend-followers would be holding this stock. There have been no buy signals. While WHS may have stopped making lower lows, it is still making lower highs and is still in a long-term downtrend with a confirmed trendline in place.
So, what to do? Nothing. If you feel that you simply must buy this stock, at least wait for price action to break above the red trendline. Even then, you should appreciate that the end of a downtrend is not necessarily the same thing as the beginning of an uptrend. WHS could go into a trading range lasting years. I'm not saying it will, of course - only time will tell. All I can say is that right now, there is no technical evidence of any imminent turnaround or any change of sentiment toward this stock. In brokerspeak, Avoid.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/WHS001.gif

Bling_Bling
08-11-2004, 07:34 PM
Thanks Risk and Phaedrus. Always good to have expert advice. Wow Phaedrus you really know your stuff. Where do you get your detail graphs from? May keep an eye on WHS for the next few days. Maybe good trading opportunity, but then the interest rate increase and the slowing of the economy worries me abit.

Hey, have I missed something or WHS looks very expensive on fundamentals. WHS reported FY profit of $61 million and a market cap of $1.24 billion @ $4.07 gives it a PE of 20x. That is an expensive company that continues to lower earnings. Have I miss something out to justify such a high PE?

nelehdine
08-11-2004, 07:57 PM
Don't think you have missed anything BB ... WHS is a very expensive stock, kind of trading on reputation rather than reality ... put it on the same P/E as say Telecom and you'd have a share price of $2.50 !! Scary isn't it !!!

Personally I think WHS is ex-growth, has a huge problem in Australia which will probably end up costing the company 10's if not 100's of millions of dollars to exit or fix. Don't touch it ... if you need some retail exposure in your portfolio have a look at Hellaby ( Rodd & Gunn, Hannahs , Pulp, BBQ Factory ) ... low 2005 P/E of approx 12.5 and a dividend yield of 5.75% and eps still growing in the mid-teens. A bargain compared to WHS !!

Disc: Ex WHS holder ( out at $7.40 & $4.95 )
Hold 2058 HBY

snow
08-11-2004, 08:16 PM
WOW some really interesting stuff here, the all mighty WHS heading south, didn`t it float for about 50c amazing growth story really and returns for any that held long term, goes to show though nothing lasts forever , will be watching with interest to see were it heads.
another baycorp maybe?

Nimble
08-11-2004, 08:49 PM
Not trying to defend the share but foreward PE of about 15 based on following announcement in Sept "The company said it was comfortable with market consensus that the 2005 full-year profit would come in at about $82 million" compared to 04 result of $61M.

donner
08-11-2004, 09:13 PM
Yeah Nimble, only with the proviso of ceteris paribus.

Nimble
09-11-2004, 07:57 AM
Not familiar with "ceteris paribus" Care to eloborate for the masses?

OldRider
09-11-2004, 08:10 AM
Perhaps that learning of Latin so many years ago,has at last been useful for me, my guess is "All things remaining equal" ?

Bling_Bling
09-11-2004, 08:16 AM
Nimble, WHS have disappointed the market expectations a couple of times on the downside. Looking at the BGR and PPG announcements, gives me the indication that the WHS may disappoint again, especially with Aussie. As per Nelehdine, WHS looks very expensive on fundamentals.

Disc: dont hold WHS shares, but still waiting and watching

blackcap
09-11-2004, 08:48 AM
Sales figures out this morning. From a lay persons point of view they look terrible with both red sheds and Aussie reporting lower same store sales.

Was this already factored in or are we going to see a fall in todays price?

09-11-2004, 08:56 AM
THE KING says dont worry what ever happens there will be share SUPPORT... [^][^][^]

Toddy
09-11-2004, 08:57 AM
I see Red.

$3.75 by christmas.

Dump and run.

If you want value out of the Warehouse then the best that you can hope for are post christmas specials for the kids.

blackcap
09-11-2004, 09:06 AM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says dont worry what ever happens there will be share SUPPORT... [^][^][^]


Dunno Kingy, they are getting a pounding today. There is only so much support that interested parties can provide before the futility of it hits them in the pockets too.

Where will it end.

nelehdine
09-11-2004, 09:22 AM
I think $3.75 by the end of the week Toddy , no need to wait till Christmas. The company seems to be going backwards at an alarming rate of knots ... now it's the weather in NZ that's the problem , no warm spring weather !! , what will the next excuse be ??? STEER CLEAR .. I think their forcast of $82m might be optimistic for the 05 year, the shares will not be "cheap" until they fall below $3 !! Be patient if you must buy ... The lustre of Stephen Tindall is fading fast !!

09-11-2004, 09:42 AM
THE KING says Yer right there has been a dip but supported but meanwhile back at Paraparaumu Store it has just received New floor coverings a re new layout and Dam a lot more stock so things DO change also a lot of workers doing the Re jig they must like it too,
Like BGR & WHS are NZ biggest as NZ is not getting bigger in size these Company ARE... [^][^][^]

nelehdine
09-11-2004, 09:51 AM
Pumpkin Patch are still growing in NZ , they are still growing in Australia, they have just started in the UK , if they get that right they will make a LOT of money. Yes the shares are expensive on a current P/E ratio but compared to WHS and BGR I know which company I think has a more exciting future over the next few years.

Hold PPL

Toddy
09-11-2004, 09:57 AM
So King, what are you going to buy at for yourself from the Warehouse for xmas.
Been away from New Zealand for a while so I do not know what is 'in' and what is 'out'.

Bling_Bling
09-11-2004, 09:59 AM
I have a feeling that WHS will go to $3.00 if it closes today below $3.90.

clearasmud
09-11-2004, 10:13 AM
Retailing is just a tough business and getting tougher.
Just not the place to park your money.
WHS must be the winner of the "most loved stock of all time award"
But even here sentiment will eventually sour.

Oracle
09-11-2004, 10:51 AM
Bongo

"A long term thing, or just a meaningless swing" ????????

winner69
09-11-2004, 10:54 AM
quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Quite involved in the NZ grocery market ... margins are under significant pressure, due primarily, to 'deflation' on imported stuff ... WHS is likely to be quite similar.


Right on Belg - as I have said a few times now price deflation is a killer for retailers ... esp when operating costs are increasing

WHS prob selling heaps more stuff but getting less for in the till ... and operating costs are going up 3-4% ... so margins are stuffed

More bad news to come

And KING - same problem for BGR

Gryffyn
09-11-2004, 11:12 AM
so glad i'm still on the sidelines - one day soon this is going to be bargain buying but now with $4 broken pay to wait and see a little.

Hey king - what happened to your cabal of price fixers?

nelehdine
09-11-2004, 11:34 AM
Not that soon Gryffyn ... WHS has some serious problems that aren't going to be fixed any time soon ... better off looking elsewhere for 12 months at least I would guess ....

jrbl
09-11-2004, 11:40 AM
One thing that does impress is their ability to analyse sales data. Seems to have improved since last years " we didn't have playstation 2 on the shelves " excuse.

Oracle
09-11-2004, 11:46 AM
I agree that margins must be under huge pressure. In addition to the weekly catalogue, there is, nearly every weekend, a 2 day sale, with significant discounts. Also, some of their markets must get near saturation, or at least slow down a bit. There is a limit to the number of plastic bins, cheap radios etc, that one needs. Stuff will last, sometimes, or its once bitten twice shy.

Bling_Bling
09-11-2004, 02:14 PM
Bel, I am only guessing the $3.00. On the charts WHS has only one way to go, that is down.

ananda77
09-11-2004, 02:28 PM
Never been a WHS-holder, but have now become interested in the debate.

This sort of cut-throat-business can not go on for long. I am watching WHS now, possibly starting to buy a few soon, as I think sometime along the way there will be a take-over of the weakest in the market...in my opinion, that's the Warehouse

-smells horribly of fly-spray
-sells the cheapest of the cheapest Chinese junk
-absolutely no shopping athmosphere

Bought a light summer-blanket in K-Mart the other day. Nice colour choice, made from cotton in India, real nice for $10-00!!

Nothing comparable in the warehouse by a long mile!!

nelehdine
09-11-2004, 02:33 PM
Pumpkin Patch +7 to new high of 227 .... talk about "Chalk and Cheese" !!

Disc: ex WHS holder and current PPL holder

nelehdine
09-11-2004, 02:37 PM
WHS sitting on the low of the day at 385 -19 ... the "mums and dads investors" aren't going to be pleased when they see the terrible sales performance on the news tonight or in the paper tomorrow .... the stock looks like it is in serious trouble to me !! STAY OUT !!

badger
09-11-2004, 03:24 PM
As you would expect the sales announcement has gone down with the market like a 'turd through a tea strainer'

Don't touch this dog. If they have a similar reduction in the next period you will be looking at around $2.50. In the meantime who is there to seriously support this stock before they see the trend has changed. Even the mugs who were trying to hold it above $4.00 won't have the balls to have another go.

Benlamnz
09-11-2004, 03:36 PM
quote:-sells the cheapest of the cheapest Chinese junk

Bought a light summer-blanket in K-Mart the other day. Nice colour choice, made from cotton in India, real nice for $10-00!!

Oh really? So India is now the measuring stick for quality huh? Too bad they don't make affortable DVD players and Nike sport shoes which kiwis learnt to love and buy. The Indian clothing industry is still living in a time capsule from 17th century, ever since the British deindustrialised the country's weaving industry. The clothing they make look better because they are mostly hand knitted by child workers on slave wages, even lower than Chinese standards.

Burgerbun
09-11-2004, 05:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Just going by todays depth there are alot of substantial buyers and very few substantial sellers and sellers only reach half decent volumes @ 4.15 and it is pretty much clearway until depth stops at 4.60.

Dont know what that means but could be a trading opportunity for you shorties.

B



stick to mowing lawns mate;)

thereslifeafter87
09-11-2004, 05:45 PM
C9,

I have tried to tell him, he just doesn't learn...

Winner,

Thanks for the insight into retail, lowered prices and margin compression. I never really thought about a low exchange rate coupled with fixed margins being a bad thing - it seems glaringly obvious now.
Its not that often I actually learn something new about business on this forum, but its good to see that I can.

Cheers.

P.S. - not all retail stocks are shockers. Check out FAN on the ASX to see one beauty... (maybe a little pricey now though).

ananda77
09-11-2004, 05:45 PM
OK Benlamnz, re: Warehouse, I was singling out the clothes and fabrics and forgot the electronics and other sections. Might be different there.

However, bought a new computer "Made in China" in a Chinese computer shop a few weeks ago. Reasonably priced considered I wanted one with my own specifications.

2 Hours later the brandnew 300 watt motor blew and was renewed no problems. 6 hours later the second brandnew 300 watt motor blew and was renewed with no problems. Insisted on a 400 watt motor which now does the job. No extra costs.

I am not so sure about Chinese quality.

I do not know whether this blanket I bought was made using child labor, but one has to be real careful these days.

Warehouse stores as well as K-mart stores et al. should issue statements whether their products are manufactured using child labor or not.

Burgerbun
09-11-2004, 05:51 PM
The link today was very interesting, about Best Buys new customer strategy.

Its exactly what stuffed BGR and now WHS regular weekend sales!



Consumers are getting smarter (wiser) and its become so much easier to *compare* on the net. Only buy in sales and loss leaders.


But *LONG TERM* WHS will outgrow AUSSIE then TAKEOVER CHINA;)[:p]

I called poor Bongo the site Jinx once...

twice? RBD now WHS...

we will have to watch SKC very closely[}:)]

Burgerbun
09-11-2004, 06:13 PM
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D


Aussie , China, the world!!!

not in hindsight my dear Bong...

and Id thought you`ld gone quiet because of your calls...

silly C9

...never sticks his neck out:D

Burgerbun
09-11-2004, 06:20 PM
But Id agree...

another $60m!!!! off the market cap is abit of an overreaction!!!

:D:D:D


no comment

winner69
09-11-2004, 06:36 PM
Amazing stuff ....

Floorspace up 74,000 sq metres from a year ago but ...

...sales up a miserly $5M extra in sales

What is the cost of filling up that 74,000 sqm of space? what is the additional operating expenses resulting because of this extra space?


And then tell me that WHS are making more money than last year. Just like the second half of the last financial year they have to be making less this half year as well.

winner69
09-11-2004, 06:49 PM
Taking of floorspace WHS have always prided themselves on increasing sales per sqm of footprint.

WHS run a business model that sort of says put shopping space down and the droves will come and sales will go up.

This time last year the Red Sheds sales were $3855 per sqm per year.

The Red Sheds now have 44,000 extra sqm than a year ago .... suggesting that this space should generate about $170M in extra sales per year.

Say about $35M this quarter .... but sales in the Red Sheds were only $5M .... meaning if the Red Sheds were as efficient as they have been the sales shortfsall is really $30M odd this quarter.

More floor space appears to be destroying heaps of shareholder value in economic terms ... which is being reflected in a declining shareprice

madmike
09-11-2004, 08:49 PM
cant be f**** reading thru c9's "i told bongo so crap" so this comment may have been made before.....

the bad news should have been quite obvious to all...

whs last year said that they would only announce 1st and 3rd 1/4ly sales if they were significantly different to market expectation...as i said then...does this really comply with continuous disclosure.....so.....whs announcing that 1st 1/4 figures would be out soon meant only one thing...bad news!!!

what i dont really understand..

with the nzd as it is and the nz consumer spending as they have been (continual increase in credit card debt)...why isn't a retailer like whs raking in the money?

people have said
1) whs is handing all nzd "gain" over to the consumer via decreased sale price
2) whs is just selling sh*t so sales will go to people selling "better" imported goods...but with products like "dell" and "shriek"!!!
3) mgmt problem!!!???

im not even including the aust problem in this scenario!!!

my view........
1) broken $4...whs on its way down
2) next "problem"...xmas sales
3) if there is any delay...even 1 day..for the announcement of the 6 mth or xmas sales figure..there will be bad news
4) from previous posts there seems to be a bit of a problem re stock and pricing
5) not too good coming up to the silly season!!!
6) given the sales trend as announced by 1st 1/4 sales...i cant see 2nd qtr (year on year) being "flash"
7) $2 share price (as per the drop when whs had the stock problem) may not be silly within the next 6 months...sentiment for whs is turning (and as some people have said....you cant prop up the share price forever!!)

downwards is where whs is going...how far it falls no one knows (except phaedrus!!!...he'll tell us about it later!!!)..expect falls in the next couple of days...maybe the 4 day rule will apply here...i wouldn't put my money on it

Gryffyn
09-11-2004, 08:50 PM
No it doesn't, but several in a row spell bad times.

Have to say, I don't own any and almost got some recently so feel relieved. Really thought the bad news was over and that these guys would be bouncing back by now.

As always, the question now is how can they go?

clearasmud
09-11-2004, 08:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

No it doesn't, but several in a row spell bad times.

Have to say, I don't own any and almost got some recently so feel relieved. Really thought the bad news was over and that these guys would be bouncing back by now.

As always, the question now is how can they go?


WHS should have support at $3.50

nelehdine
09-11-2004, 09:04 PM
Just like they did at $4.00 ... held up for a while but didn't do you much good in the end if you bought in at that level. $3.00 will be the support after that !!! then $2.50 ....

Stay out ... people who try to be clever and pick bottoms tend to get smelly fingers !!!!

Burgerbun
10-11-2004, 02:29 AM
quote:Originally posted by madmike

cant be f**** reading thru c9's "i told bongo so crap" so this comment may have been made before.....

the bad news should have been quite obvious to all...

whs last year said that they would only announce 1st and 3rd 1/4ly sales if they were significantly different to market expectation...as i said then...does this really comply with continuous disclosure.....so.....whs announcing that 1st 1/4 figures would be out soon meant only one thing...bad news!!!

what i dont really understand..

with the nzd as it is and the nz consumer spending as they have been (continual increase in credit card debt)...why isn't a retailer like whs raking in the money?

people have said
1) whs is handing all nzd "gain" over to the consumer via decreased sale price
2) whs is just selling sh*t so sales will go to people selling "better" imported goods...but with products like "dell" and "shriek"!!!
3) mgmt problem!!!???

im not even including the aust problem in this scenario!!!

my view........
1) broken $4...whs on its way down
wow, that was profound
2) next "problem"...xmas sales
another brainstormer...[|)]
3) if there is any delay...even 1 day..for the announcement of the 6 mth or xmas sales figure..there will be bad news
...and this is something new right:D
4) from previous posts there seems to be a bit of a problem re stock and pricing
as per public ann`s ...yawn
5) not too good coming up to the silly season!!!
incredible depth of insight
6) given the sales trend as announced by 1st 1/4 sales...i cant see 2nd qtr (year on year) being "flash"
...you are truely a master of profound analysis.
7) $2 share price (as per the drop when whs had the stock problem) may not be silly within the next 6 months...sentiment for whs is turning (and as some people have said....you cant prop up the share price forever!!)
so there is finally the prediction...well done, however you are WAY off the mark...$2 eh:D:D:D


downwards is where whs is going...how far it falls no one knows (except phaedrus!!!...he'll tell us about it later!!!)..expect falls in the next couple of days...maybe the 4 day rule will apply here...i wouldn't put my money on it

nice hedge both ways:([xx(]





typical, where were you when WHS was $7.50???
I was WARNING about this 3 years ago. and here you go after the facts with nothing to add but poorly thought out drivle.
What a dorkas for your view ........[:0]Y[:0]A[:0]W[:0]N[:0]

what did you actually say[?][?][?][?][?]

NOTHING

CAM
10-11-2004, 07:27 AM
Great criticism C9...have you made any picks lately? What should we be putting our money into?

sharebattler
10-11-2004, 08:36 AM
THE AUSTRALIAN
Page 37 10/11/04

Discount price war warning
Katherine Jimenez
November 10, 2004

FIERCE competition in the $4 billion discount variety market is unlikely to ease next year, with Warehouse Group chief executive Ian Morrice warning yesterday that the retailer would remain aggressive on pricing as it sought to build its brand across Australia.

Unveiling another disappointing sales result, Mr Morrice, who heads the New Zealand parent company The Warehouse Group, said that a competitive market was the "kind of trading environment the Warehouse is best at".

The fundamentals of the retailer's promotional program "always remain the same", he said, dismissing criticism from some of its rivals about the aggressive nature of its price promotions.

Warehouse in Australia fights in the same bargain retail space as Miller's Retail, The Reject Shop, Coles Myer's Kmart chain and Woolworths' Big W stores. Miller's shares fell 4c to $1.24 yesterday, with Reject Shop down 9c to $2.69.

Mr Morrice said Warehouse stores were "set up to be a store where everyone gets a bargain and you can't be a store where everyone gets a bargain if you don't have very strong pricing and aggressive promotions".

In the past few months, he said, its promotional activity remained aggressive but was more focused on categories where Warehouse wanted to be recognised. Those include toys, entertainment, electronics and consumables -- which includes items stretching from lollies to shampoo.

His comments came as the parent company revealed a 2.4 per cent slide in comparable sales in Australia for the 13 weeks to October 31, compared with the previous corresponding quarter.

Top-line sales were flat at $115 million, despite an increase in retail selling space and a major overhaul of the business last year.

The poor sales numbers follow a string of bad financial results over the past four years. Warehouse reported a loss of $32.2 million in the 2003-04 financial year.

The weaker sales result from Australia was not the only black spot in the New Zealand group's overall unaudited sales result. The NZ business known as Red Shed reported a 2.6 per cent drop in comparable sales growth.

trendy
10-11-2004, 01:18 PM
Current WHS price is starting to reflect "Where Everyone Gets a Bargain" :)

Halebop
10-11-2004, 01:41 PM
Not yet but getting there. I think somewhere around $3.30 is fair value assuming Australia is an (on)going concern. 'Course if sentiment turns nasty as opposed to just realistic then the price could go sub $3. I might be crying myself at that point 'cos I'd have probably bought!

10-11-2004, 02:37 PM
THE KING says Dont forget they are CUM DIV 4 cents till Friday, thats NICE... [^][^][^]

Burgerbun
10-11-2004, 02:39 PM
quote:Originally posted by CAM

Great criticism C9...have you made any picks lately? What should we be putting our money into?


Most recently

NZX: MHI (from$5), EBO (from low $3,breakout $3.50), RPL (all the way..fm 29-30c)
ASX: NTG (risky but fm 4c-5c) , HWG (fm 11-12c), HWE (most recent fm 67-68c)

money into the ASX stocks with NZD high.

thanks CAM, how about yourself?

MPC
10-11-2004, 03:31 PM
I jumped ship recently after being one of these people who had stubbornly held since about $7 in the belief that Aussie would turn around. However I get the feeling now that Oz isn't the only problem and once people like me start jumping then all those Mum and Dads who put their hard earned into this will also decide that enough is enough and take what they can get. Who will buy at the moment though?

I believe that the warehouse was a great company and filled a niche here in NZ but at the moment it is lost, here is hoping that in the future they can turn it back around.

My uneducated pick is for the SP to fall to just above $3, in fact I will go $3.11 by Christmas.

C9 I am probably a dork as well but these are the thoughts on the surface of my mind at the moment. Moved into NOG from here.

Cheers,
MPC

thereslifeafter87
10-11-2004, 07:15 PM
Bongo,

I stuck my neck out on RBD - said it was a dog, admitted I'd f*cked up, and sold my holding.... It still hasn't gone above the price I sold at.

I stuck my neck out on OTI on the ASX - said it wouldn't go where everyone else thought it would, and it didn't.

I stuck my neck out on FAN on the ASX (up over 100% from my initial purchase a year ago).

I stuck my neck out on OCL on the ASX - selling after it had jumped 40% - it then kept climbing, but has since come back somewhat.

I stuck my neck out on ARP on the ASX - and emerged with a face covered in egg [B)] - I sold just before they announced a special dividend and the price shot up by 20%. I did still make a 10% profit though... And I never said the company would not produce consistent returns.

I have stuck my neck out on UOS on the ASX. We will see what happens there.


So anyway, I think my stock-picking record basically kicks yours in the proverbial.

You claim to follow Buffett, yet obviously have not understood the concept of a margin of safety - or the idea that turnarounds seldom turn - or the idea that if you find out you are wrong, you should accept the mistake, sell, and move on to greener pastures.

Buying WHS at upwards of 20x earnings, with small possibility of large profit growth in the next couple of years was simply suicidal!

Much better to buy a company like FAN at 22x earnings (last year) with 50% profit growth the year before, and the likelihood of a further 50% rise the next year (which eventuated).

The reaction to the quarterly sales report was not overdone, because WHS is so fundamentally over-priced. You should not be paying 20x earnings for a company whose profit is dropping!

At 20x earnings, assuming no growth, a company will take 20 years to earn your investment back. That's a 5% annual return. After inflation, thats a 2.5% return! Why not buy government bonds??????????

If WHS did in fact generate 20% growth in profit, year after year, then it would justify a PE of 20.

This simply isn't going to happen. It is too big in NZ, and not competing well enough in Aussie.

The best you can expect from NZ, and I mean maximum upside, is likely to be 10% (annualised) profit growth per year - don't get confused - if WHS profits are down 20% this year, then they will need to increase profit by 60% next year to gain annualised growth of 10% (I think... My math isn't that fantastic, but you get the gist).

So Bongo, you overpaid for a company that is underperforming. Buffett advises people to pay a fair price (or preferably underpay) for superior companies, that continue to produce excellent results.

As soon as you saw WHS heading south (the company, not the share price, the two are distinct) you should have bailed. Same with RBD - although at least with RBD you had more of a margin of safety with it only trading at low PE multiples. That limited your losses.

You should only ever pay 20x earnings for a company that is truly outstanding with large growth potential. Not one that is limited to 10% max upside in its strongest market, and is struggling to compete through an over-ambitious expansion into a new market.

I guess I'm sticking my neck out on this one huh Bongo???

Also,

While I usually don't get along so well with C9 - he did do pretty well for himself on ATR on the ASX... 1000%+ in little over a year... Seems pretty darn good to me...

Personally I only managed about 300% or so... the benefits of getting in early huh? Those are the returns you get when you buy solid companies with large potential for growth trading at significant discounts to the value of their future income streams (their intrinsic value). Still much better value than WHS too - about 8x conservative projections of forward earnings, with growth looking likely into the future....

Its not too late to actually make some money on shares Bongo...

By the way, If you would like, I actually have a personal fund that I manage for some people, Email me if you would like to make a deposit. :)

Well done on SKC - you

The BOWMAN
10-11-2004, 10:36 PM
It was on the news making a comment that WHS didn't get the killer product last Xmas, the XBox, hence didn't do well and they are hoping for a better Xmas season this time. I think it is unlikely because WHS does not have the killer product this Xmas either. It is no longer XBox. It is iPod this year! [8D][8D] Something much smaller but with a bigger price tag.

Burgerbun
11-11-2004, 03:01 AM
Actually TLA87...

you are right about the WB thing

At the time I was warning Bongo AND co of IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE...the WHS was trading on a PE of 30x at its peak.

At one stage it was priced higher than the great WAL!!!!!
which was trading at 29x during the same period.


I was also told by them (incl Gerry) that Cullen would be putting LOTS of $$$$ into WHS, the price would rocket over $8, the stock would split again.....dominate Aussie....then Head of to China, or North America. anyway.

I wouldnt be rubbing it in now if they hadnt been so single minded and rude.

I stuck my neck out and opposed them, and I was definetly in the minority;)



From here, now over 1/2 of its Market cap destroyed...I think $3 will not be broken, let alone $2...however

There is no rush, thats for sure.

winner69
11-11-2004, 06:29 AM
quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN

It was on the news making a comment that WHS didn't get the killer product last Xmas, the XBox, hence didn't do well and they are hoping for a better Xmas season this time. I think it is unlikely because WHS does not have the killer product this Xmas either. It is no longer XBox. It is iPod this year! [8D][8D] Something much smaller but with a bigger price tag.


They say digital cameras is the big thing this Xmas

2000 per store is one big pile of digital cameras

Want one ... bargain price

Snow Leopard
11-11-2004, 06:36 AM
Probably the best thing to do with your WHS shares is sell them now to fund your Xmas cravings!

No matter how you look at this, WHS currently belongs in the sub $3 bracket, life is not going to get any easier for them in the next year and beyond.

Whether it declines to this price is another matter, the market is a weird place at times :) But the downtrend will continue I believe

winner69
11-11-2004, 12:11 PM
Plenty of money being spent by the 'poorer' aussies - from Coles sales release

Its discount chains were especially vibrant, with Target's sales from stores at least a year old rising 10 percent to A$702 million, and Kmart up 9 percent to A$905 million.

And WHS Australia hardly moved

Gryffyn
11-11-2004, 12:25 PM
Yep, it's on the decline alright. I thought they might turn it around but seems a longer haul than expected. When the dust settles it'll be worth buying I'm sure. Probably going to be a great traders stock till then.

Gryffyn
11-11-2004, 12:26 PM
Key king/jester/fool/whatever - what price will your secret cabal settle on now and support ;)

Gryffyn
11-11-2004, 12:58 PM
Warehouse gets go ahead for mega Palmerston North store

11.11.2004 1.40 pm

Work on the Warehouse's controversial mega store in Palmerston North is due to start this month after the company received the final go-ahead yesterday.

Independent commissioner Paul Cavanagh yesterday issued a resource consent after two years of challenges from the Railway Land Action Group and -- for part of the time -- Progressive Enterprises, which owns Countdown and Woolworths.

Part of the objections centred on the fact that the land was not offered to anyone but the Warehouse and that there was little, if any, consultation.

The consent Mr Cavanagh issued is non-notifiable, meaning there will be no more consultation or appeals.

Former mayor Mark Bell-Booth and the previous council agreed to the sale of the land in September 2002, but the deal was in limbo until the appeals process was exhausted.

Peter Eathorne, general manager of City Contact, which deals with building permits for the city council, said the commissioner's decision drew a line under a painfully long process.

"It has been quite drawn out, but we are expecting to receive the money ($4 million) by electronic transaction in the next day or two," he said.

"The Warehouse is keen to start work as soon as possible, because it was unable to commence construction until the sale was completed."

Marilyn Bulloch, who led opposition to the sale of the land, was stoic about the decision.

"We are pleased that we fought the battle, but it is sad to see it go, all the same," she said.

"In a way, I blame the previous councils for not doing enough to protect the railway land.

"I guess it was a battle that we would have preferred not to have to fight. When we withdrew our appeal it meant the whole thing could go ahead once the council voted for a zoning change."

That change was voted in July and brought the $4 million sale a step closer.

The city council will be responsible for putting in 156 car parks.

- NZPA

Gryffyn
11-11-2004, 12:59 PM
Some good news at least.

11-11-2004, 03:58 PM
Warehouse in QLD Australia does not know anything about competition. Super specials in their mailer are dearer than competitions normal price most of the time.

winner69
12-11-2004, 06:32 AM
AGM later this month could be interesting

Wonder if there will be an guidance given then as to how they are really performing ... otherwise March is a long way off

Ironic really - declining losses in Aust but probably declining profits in NZ

12-11-2004, 07:55 AM
THE KING says Dear G...... AS a off the top of the head talker and a NON shareholder of WHS you could DO with more Education untill then its a wast ot time of THE KING to explain some of you stupid Q..

Please DONT start a Verbable Return.. as there will be NO REPLY..

THANKS.. [^][^][^]

Gryffyn
12-11-2004, 08:21 AM
Well king I was just hoping you'd explain the two ridiculous statements you made last week. The questions aren't stupid, just a request for you to sunstantiate the things you said while you tried to talk WHS down.

Of course you can't explain then hence the idiotic ramblings and refusal to answr. Oh dear, I feel so uneducated.

In the end WHS have done a better job than you of dropping the shareprice.

I don't have any WHS yet but am always looking for a bargain.

If you post dumb statements about share price fixing then expect to be called. Especially now when your statements look even dumber in light of the recent events.

G.

12-11-2004, 08:26 AM
THE KING says PLEASE read the above REPLY...[^][^][^]

Gryffyn
12-11-2004, 08:52 AM
I did - you said you wouldn't reply but you have! Guess there's hope then for you explaining why your mystery investers didn't keep the price up above $4 like you said they were doing.

12-11-2004, 10:25 AM
THE KING says Better read it again THEN... [^][^][^]

Gryffyn
12-11-2004, 10:38 AM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says as it has been explained before this is a CONTROLED stock ther will be NO upside and posible NO downside because of those 19 top twenty people, if the stock dropes they BUY when it rises to balance the books SELL,, thats National Nominees main BIS or you should know is its Sir John Tempelton of Franklins if you dont know you should learn MORE.. [^][^]


Well, this was your patronising post.

Seems to have had an uncontrolled freefall!

If you make unsubstantiated (and obviously incorrect) posts when trying to ramp or depress a share, expect to get called in an open forum.

kura
12-11-2004, 05:27 PM
Ive just been reading brokers commentary on WHS, and despite the disappointing results, they were quite positive about the stock. (report dated 10/11/04 when shareprice @ $4.04)

Gryffyn
12-11-2004, 06:00 PM
They should be positively ecstatic now with the new SP ;)

clearasmud
12-11-2004, 06:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by kura

Ive just been reading brokers commentary on WHS, and despite the disappointing results, they were quite positive about the stock. (report dated 10/11/04 when shareprice @ $4.04)


Some big brokers have been extolling WHS all the while the SP has burned.
Its seems deceitful.
I hope it isn't

Kookaburra
12-11-2004, 09:41 PM
With near full employment in NZ and this being where the little people shop surely this is going to turn around and produce enough good profit in NZ to carry the Aussie business until Morrice gets things sorted. Now that it appears to ahve found support I might seriously consider buying into the walmart of the south.

winner69
13-11-2004, 06:25 AM
It is all OK on the WHS front ... sometime in the future the shareprice has to go up ... so says Morrice in the paper today

The only things that worries me is all this ongoing investment ... sounds like heaps more to come .. Red Sheds, Blue Sheds, Yellow Sheds, supply chain etc etc.

Over the last 5 years this cash cow has generated $360M of operating cash flows ... but capex has been $400M odd ..... negative free cash flow over last 5 years

But suppose one needs to invest to win over the long term but this long term seems to be an awfully long way away

The NZ Herald

Red alert

13.11.2004 -

Ian Morrice, newly installed chief executive of New Zealand's largest retailer, The Warehouse, is short of time.

Only after much negotiation did the Weekend Herald secure an interview, and then it is to be conducted in two parts. The first will be a 10-minute chat during a photo session at the group's Northcote headquarters.

Two days later the Scottish-born executive would call us from a taxi as he travelled across Sydney. (As it turns out, Morrice, who took the reins at the start of last month, got into work early and called from the Sydney office.)

It is no wonder.

The day of our first encounter, Tuesday, Morrice disclosed that first-quarter, same-store sales at the New Zealand "red sheds" - the engine of profitability - had dipped 2.6 per cent against the same period last year.

The news shocked investors, who instead had been bracing themselves for more bad news from The Warehouse's struggling Australian "yellow sheds". The share price tumbled over the next couple of days to as low as $3.73, a five-year trough. It recovered yesterday to $3.79.

Meanwhile, retail sales figures out yesterday showed that the fall occurred when total New Zealand retail sales rose 2.4 per cent - the highest quarterly rise since the June quarter of 1997.

If anyone should have been growing in such a benign environment, it should be our biggest retailer.

On the day of the figures, The Warehouse blamed the late onset of spring, which hit clothing sales. Meanwhile, customers spent more on fridges, freezers, televisions and furniture, the so-called consumer durables that do not typically figure prominently on the shelves of the 85 red sheds.

Sitting in his second-floor Northcote office overlooking the Waitemata Harbour, Morrice, the former boss of the successful British DIY chain B&Q, looks relaxed despite the pressure. His orange B&Q apron has been exchanged for the obligatory red Warehouse shirt.

He says later from Sydney that he is making the most of his temporary separation from his wife and three children, who are to join him in New Zealand in the new year. "I'm travelling a lot and focusing on understanding the business. I'm enjoying myself."

Morrice is candid about the group's problems. He seemingly pays little heed to the sensibilities of his predecessors, founder Stephen Tindall, who was in control for most of the past year, and Greg Muir, now heading childswear retailer Pumpkin Patch.

Problems linked to The Warehouse's years of rapid growth have come home to roost. The stores have grown haphazardly, making it hard for customers to find what they are looking for.

"I've been in some stores that have been extended four times in five years ... When you get into these big spaces, and our stores are among the biggest in the country, it can be difficult for people to find their way around."

Even the relatively new Albany store, the only one The Warehouse would allow us to photograph inside, suffers from these problems.

Meanwhile, the red sheds are often located away from other shops. This means customers have to make a special trip rather than stopping off when they do their weekly shopping.

"A customer would typically visit their grocery shop three or four times as often as they'd visit The Warehouse."

Morrice is an old hand at developing store format - his first job was as a trainee at British appliance retailer Dixons.

"The format will need to be looked at, not

Sky Tower
13-11-2004, 10:13 AM
Interesting article in the Herald this morning however there must be better opportunities in the retail sector. MHI ? HLG?

The problems at WHS are structural - will take years to fix, if at all.

Moving average chart looks sick

Gryffyn
17-11-2004, 11:54 AM
moved below 375, will it test a lower resistance level this week?

Disc: none

Gryffyn
17-11-2004, 12:27 PM
or in fact lower support :)

patsy
17-11-2004, 03:19 PM
No wonder why one of the directors dumped 385,000 shares at $4.10 or thereabouts on the last week of the trading window for insiders (22/10/04)!!!!

Sky Tower
17-11-2004, 06:30 PM
definitely not a support level - chart indicates share price will continue to fall

Morch
17-11-2004, 06:51 PM
Down side looks like about $3 if that does not hold and the way things are going it might not then a little under $2. One thing is for sure the price is going lower and if there is not a significant announcement like pulling out of AU it’s going to get ugly!!!

Retailers were at each other’s throats last Christmas and now things are much tighter, it's going to be survival of the fittest.

The warehouse will become a bargin for the canny shoppers!!!

Happy investing
Morch :)

17-11-2004, 07:08 PM
THE KING says this is the biggest NZ ever CON.... [^][^][^]

winner69
17-11-2004, 08:05 PM
They say 5 year low today at 367 ... or putting it another way the lowest price this century

Wasn't it 5 years ago they had a share split and for your $8.00 share you got 2 at $4.00

And many were asking for another share split when those 2 got to $8.00 again

Just as well they didn't ...that $2.00 share price night have happened

Jeez, a lot can happen over 5 years can't it

warthog
17-11-2004, 08:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says this is the biggest NZ ever CON.... [^][^][^]


What is, your Kingness?

Gryffyn
17-11-2004, 09:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says this is the biggest NZ ever CON.... [^][^][^]


What is, your Kingness?


The king (like me) has BGR, he also has lots of other retail stocks - well disclosed.

But he doesn't have WHS and he continually talks it down with the most absurd posts. Luckily for him OZ and management are doing a good job of depressing the price anyway.

Still waiting for the jester to respond and support his price fixing allegations...

kura
17-11-2004, 09:16 PM
For what it's worth (obviously nothing) I have $3.50 as my buy order. (just a toe in the water though)

nelehdine
17-11-2004, 09:32 PM
You'll get em Kura ... don't think you want 'em though !!!

clearasmud
17-11-2004, 09:32 PM
quote:Originally posted by kura

For what it's worth (obviously nothing) I have $3.50 as my buy order. (just a toe in the water though)

Should be a good trade @3.98

Dazza
17-11-2004, 09:55 PM
well im out, brought it at 5.33 in march
out today sold for 3.74
to fuel for more OC's

ive given up hope for the turn around
surprising how it dropped another 5 cents today

but go NOGOCs!!!

clearasmud
17-11-2004, 10:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

well im out, brought it at 5.33 in march
out today sold for 3.74
to fuel for more OC's

ive given up hope for the turn around
surprising how it dropped another 5 cents today

but go NOGOCs!!!


Obviously a good learning experience for u.
I bgt at 5.83 and sold 5.13 but that was a long time ago...
u made the right choice and will be rewarded amply god willing

winner69
18-11-2004, 12:20 PM
Amazing that WHS price is still the same as it was 5 years ago

Imagine some poor fella called Sid who went bush for 5 years in November 1999 happy that his WHS shares were $3.80 and came out today and found they were still about $3.80.

Sid asked his sharebroker what has happened to the WHS over the last 5 years - his sharebroker told him

**** Store numbers have increased from 87 to 351
**** Sales are nearly 2 1/2 times what they were - increased from $0.9 billion to $2.2 billion
**** Net assets have more than doubled - from $170M to $357M
**** Now have 15,877 empoyees - 10.262 more than 5 years ago
**** Spent $500M on capital expenditure

So Sid replies 'Thats impressive, they must be making heaps now'

Oh no his sharebroker told Sid - their profit has only increased from $54M to $61M in those five years ... and the earnings per share has gone from 19cents to 20 cents.

Poor Sid - he's incredulous. All that investment and all those extra staff and they are only making the same as they were 5 years ago.

Who does he blame? He can't blame investor sentiment because WHS is still trading at 20X earnings - it hasn't been rerated downward. Sid says to himself that is just as well as if they had been rerated down they might have only been worth $2-$3. At least he still has his capital and he has had a few piddly dividends put in his bank account but inflation has taken care of those.

Sid asks his sharebroker 'Have the WHS really stuffed up somewhere along the way?'

Sid's sharebroker tells him 'No not really. They are investing for the future and all should be right in few years and your WHS shares should be worth $10 each in 5 years'

Sid thinks thats good and decides going bush for another 5 years might be the caper

What will Sid's sharebroker tell Sid when he comes back to civilisation in 5 years time?

trendy
18-11-2004, 12:27 PM
LOL I like that one. Now do the same for NOG.....

18-11-2004, 12:45 PM
THE KING says this thread should be renamed " MOAN CITY "...[^][^][^]

Longtack
18-11-2004, 02:25 PM
Winner69 - well I like your sense of irony/humour. It helps balance all those stinging barbs elsewhere.:D:)[8D][:o)] Sid should swing a pick for NOG at the Pike River.

Placebo
18-11-2004, 03:03 PM
Well if I was brave I'd sell out of me MHI which have had about a 60pct run-up since March 04 and jump merrily into WHS which has been so unfairly hammered down and must be due to rebound some time soon. There can only be an upside, surely.

Do you think I should be brave?

Sky Tower
18-11-2004, 05:03 PM
no. enuf said.

Halebop
18-11-2004, 10:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

...WHS which has been so unfairly hammered down and must be due to rebound some time soon. There can only be an upside, surely...


Unfairly hammered down? No I think they have earned it. They are still too expensive.

skinny
18-11-2004, 11:40 PM
Winner, great story.

The happy ending:
Sid returns from the bush 5 years later and his stock broker gives him the news the shares are worth $10. He enthuses about the excellent mangament decisions the WHS took over the past 5 years. It cut its losses in Australia in 2005 to concentrate on NZ operations, first by better managing margins and second by following Walmarts lead and entering into the hypermarket format. Its superior stock control systems and smart marketing allowed it to take considerble market share from the supermaket chains. Margins aren't high but they are stable and the WHS more than earns its cost of capital. Sid's pretty chuffed, he sells his shares to move into a comfortable kauri villa in Freeman's Bay.

The sad ending:
Sid returns and the shares are worth $2.50. The broker consoles him by saying that its still 50% more than what they were two years ago when the WHS finally sold off their loss making Australian operations and marginal New Zealand red sheds to focus on stores earning a superior return on equity. The broker tells him Foresooth Barred research suggests it will be worth $4.00 on the 2011 earnings outlook. Sid sighs and goes back to the bush for another 5 years.


Until I see management making the tough decisions I lean to the sad ending...

Placebo
19-11-2004, 09:17 AM
Poor Sid. Hope he likes Huhu grubs

winner69
21-11-2004, 07:42 PM
Tough weekend for Keith and Ian tossing around what they should be telling shareholders at the AGM this week.

Could be tough meeting seeing shareholders have seen their worth diminish by $720,000,000 since the last meeting

Keith agreed to do the nice warm fuzzy stuff saying that last year wasn't the best but things were on track and this year will probably be OK

Keith won't be able to give any guidance for the full year as Xmas sales have such a bearing on the result ... but trust me

Keith told Ian that he is the new leader so he can do the visionary thing ... like I have been in charge for a few months ... like what i see ... and once I change a few things ... build some new stores ... in a few years we will have a great company again

Anybody going to the AGM?

winner69
25-11-2004, 05:47 PM
The tea lady (or the cleaner) at WHS HQ must have seen the slides the guys are going to use tomorrow

Must have been at lunch time because her friends certainly bailed out this afternoon .... and today was a good day on the NZX

WHS at 369 ... who would have believed that

Doesn't sound good .... I say some bad news hidden away in those presentations tomorrow

Anybody going to the AGM?

whatsup
06-12-2004, 12:10 PM
FALLING--------- sub $3.50 today?

cdt18
06-12-2004, 02:34 PM
Watch her drop. This is an interesting slope

winner69
07-12-2004, 11:33 AM
So was 352 the low?

Looks like now is the time to buy

Ian saying he will reduce stock by 30% makes the $100M a year capital needs less daunting ... and WHS won't have to borrow to pay the dividend this year

Then again maybe Progressive is on the radar ... if you can't beat them buy them

Sky Tower
07-12-2004, 04:15 PM
Looking more like a $2.00 stock every day !!!

D.

Bling_Bling
07-12-2004, 04:20 PM
Like a falling knife, there will be blood on the streets. Still looks expensive at $3.50 unless Aussie is fixed or cut and run.

Sky Tower
08-12-2004, 11:07 AM
quote:Originally posted by dnicholls

Looking more like a $2.00 stock every day !!!

D.


should they be renamed 'the $2.00 shop"

:D

08-12-2004, 11:46 AM
THE KING says they should takeover the $2 shop bis know as the Reject Shop ,NZ & AUS to get a better footing as they have enough margin in the share price for a paper TAKEOVER.. [^]

halcyon9
08-12-2004, 03:28 PM
always the same eh

WHS goes under $4 and all the doomers come out blazing...


where were YOU when WHS was pushing $8!!!!
BEFORE it lost $1,300,000,000 off it's market cap.


I was told it was going to takeover Aussie
...then head to China
and hit $8 and split again.



C9 was one of VERY few warning Bongo at the top;)


Now, stop jumping on the bandwagon and tell us

When will it hit the bottom??[:p]

donner
08-12-2004, 06:42 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3121953a13,00.html

...and where exactly does WHS fit in to this?

winner69
08-12-2004, 07:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by donner

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3121953a13,00.html

...and where exactly does WHS fit in to this?


bit rich for WHS - (quote)Foodland's New Zealand assets Progressive Enterprises were valued at $2.0 billion before Metcash's bid.

But you never know .... might be a partnership with somebody like Walmart? .... before the full takeover of WHS by Walmart .... and then they wont need to expand to China

Bullet
09-12-2004, 01:40 PM
important news is that the girls toy buyer resigned around two months ago and as at today the overall toy buyer has left. TWH have 70% of the toy business within NZ and this will have a major impact.

Snow Leopard
09-12-2004, 01:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bullet

important news is that the girls toy buyer resigned around two months ago and as at today the overall toy buyer has left. TWH have 70% of the toy business within NZ and this will have a major impact.


Panic in the streets. [:0]

They can, of course, always find replacements. ;)
I would bet that all their Xmas + New Year sales stocks have been bought. [8D]

It is still overpriced mind you*.


*The SP, not the toys.

clearasmud
09-12-2004, 05:32 PM
more bad news: WHS kicked out of NZSX10.
From NZX anouncement
Westpac (NZ) Investments Limited (WPT) will be added to the NZSX 10 index and
The Warehouse Group Limited (WHS) will be deleted.

NZSX MidCap Index
The Warehouse Group Limited (WHS) will be added to the NZSX MidCap index and
Westpac (NZ) Investments Limited (WPT) will be deleted.




NZSX 10 Index
Westpac (NZ) Investments Limited (WPT) will be added to the NZSX 10 index and
The Warehouse Group Limited (WHS) will be deleted.

NZSX MidCap Index
The Warehouse Group Limited (WHS) will be added to the NZSX MidCap index and
Westpac (NZ) Investments Limited (WPT) will be deleted.

donner
09-12-2004, 07:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bullet

important news is that the girls toy buyer resigned around two months ago and as at today the overall toy buyer has left. TWH have 70% of the toy business within NZ and this will have a major impact.


Lots of girls like toys. More than the boys I think. It is for this reason the impact will be felt. But come to think of it. I am not sure if they have this department or not.

Sideshow Bob
09-12-2004, 09:02 PM
I see that they are getting desperate for sales. They had a shareholders shopping night a week or two ago, where got 10-25% off.

Must have been a success, as they are having another one next week. I bought about 10 things and every one had the minimum discount of 10%. Even worse, after reading the posts on WHS on this site, every item scanned at the shown price!!

Just trying to get some of the money back WHS has cost me thus far. :( Maybe it's just a way to placate shareholders??

SSB

winner69
16-12-2004, 12:02 PM
Xmas helping the WHS price

I say 400 by Xmas .... don't most say this is the Xmas to beat all Xmas's (sales wise)

k1w1
17-12-2004, 04:52 PM
I would be grateful for any TA viewpoint on the current WHS SP. I know that fundies think it is a solid share.Cap and the smart money think it may get back into gear in February.

The issue for me is about timing of entry.

Longtack
17-12-2004, 05:24 PM
K1W1 - I reckon that the T.A. indicates a buy right now. Short term trendline break. Good volume today after 3 previous day rises (improving candles) although there may have been a bit of profit-taking as todays has a bit of a long lower shadow. May want to wait a day or two for a DMI cross-over (or not) but On Balance Vol OBV and MACD or bullish. That will be 20 Guineas please (unless I'm wrong.)
Beats me why the sp wld rise on pre-Xmas sales. People are sooo fickle - that's why T.A. works.[:p]

k1w1
17-12-2004, 05:24 PM
Fundies see shares as part ownership of a business. If as you say the business is solid then it would follow that a shar ie part ownership of a solid business could also reasonably be described as "solid".

That is completely different from share price ie what Mr Market is prepared to pay for it on any day. Solid shares do not always have solid share prices. The art is to pick the value discrepancies.

On that point I would be interested in your views on Speirs Finance which traded today at $1.20.

Longtack
17-12-2004, 05:52 PM
K1W1 - In a word - Icck!
Too few trades on poxy volume to give a meaningful answer. Only 33 trading days since mid-August but it is in an uptrend. Have a look at http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/ NZ:SGL is the code to use.

skinny
17-12-2004, 05:58 PM
kiwi and other prospective WHS owners, after spending a good hour yakking through the NZ retail scene with the non-food purchasing manager of NZ's largest retailer by turnover (hint the outfit is not listed) I am seriously thinking of going short the WHS....looks like things are just going to get tougher for them in NZ going forward.

Longtack
17-12-2004, 06:33 PM
k1w1 Posted - 17/12/2004 : 6:24:49 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fundies see shares as part ownership of a business. If as you say the business is solid then it would follow that a shar ie part ownership of a solid business could also reasonably be described as "solid".

That is completely different from share price ie what Mr Market is prepared to pay for it on any day. Solid shares do not always have solid share prices. The art is to pick the value discrepancies.

On that point I would be interested in your views on Speirs Finance which traded today at $1.20.



Well I had to laugh when I read that again K1W1.

If one (techie) picks solely undervalued companies and the rest of the mkt (Mr Market) doesn't recognise this what happens to the sp? DOH!!!! [xx(] Nah - it doesn't work for me like that. It's all about what the market does , rather than what we think it should do.
If I go any further then I'd have to drag Cap' into this to talk about reality, perception, desire and hope.[:p]:)

Thanks for inviting me to respond about the Speirs thingie. There are several far more knowledgable people here who understand T.A. and I'd like to see their views on WHS. I appreciate the the value of F.A. but I'm too impatient to buy & hold long term.

port hills
17-12-2004, 07:06 PM
Without cosidering the big picture I'd say the warehouse will be punished on Monday along with Briscoes. :)

Phaedrus
17-12-2004, 07:52 PM
Longtack sees WHS as a "buy" right now. I disagree, but it is obvious why we have different opinions. I am a less active, more conservative trader than LT. My systems are aimed at trading medium-term trends and LT's comments refer to the short-term trend. I have made only 2 WHS trades in 4 years, and that was one too many! (I was lucky to get out of the 2003 trade with any profit at all)
So, right now I see a stock in a clear long-term downtrend, with a confirmed trendline in place and with price action well below the trendline. In addition, there was such strong support for WHS at $4.00 that it would be reasonable to expect some resistance at that level on the way up. Not for me at all, but if you are keen to buy, why not wait for a break of the red long-term trendline? If you are really desperate to throw money at this thing, at least wait for a break of the blue short-term trendline.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/WHS002.gif

Longtack
17-12-2004, 08:20 PM
Thanks Phaedrus

k1w1
17-12-2004, 08:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by Longtack

k1w1 Posted - 17/12/2004 : 6:24:49 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fundies see shares as part ownership of a business. If as you say the business is solid then it would follow that a shar ie part ownership of a solid business could also reasonably be described as "solid".

That is completely different from share price ie what Mr Market is prepared to pay for it on any day. Solid shares do not always have solid share prices. The art is to pick the value discrepancies.

On that point I would be interested in your views on Speirs Finance which traded today at $1.20.



Well I had to laugh when I read that again K1W1.

If one (techie) picks solely undervalued companies and the rest of the mkt (Mr Market) doesn't recognise this what happens to the sp? DOH!!!! [xx(] Nah - it doesn't work for me like that. It's all about what the market does , rather than what we think it should do.
If I go any further then I'd have to drag Cap' into this to talk about reality, perception, desire and hope.[:p]:)

Thanks for inviting me to respond about the Speirs thingie. There are several far more knowledgable people here who understand T.A. and I'd like to see their views on WHS. I appreciate the the value of F.A. but I'm too impatient to buy & hold long term.


Longtack the Speirs reference was for Belg, we have a bit of history on that thread...but to your point, Warren Buffett used to make a living from picking stocks undervalued by the market. He used to say that although in the short term the market is a voting machine as when only one person gets a share, in the long term it is a weighing machine when stocks get reweighed up or down. WHS has been both ways now and I am wondering where it goes next and when. Techies may have a view that I would be keen to here.

Longtack
17-12-2004, 09:45 PM
Thanks K1w1 - I knew there was more to you than that.;) Wazza B is nearly 80 I guess and he still has more patience than me.

skinny
18-12-2004, 09:51 AM
The WHS is still expensive on the fundamentals, according to P the medium term technicals are weak and on top of that I've done my own bit of Macdunking which leves me even colder on the longer term profitability of the NZ ops on this one (check out a big non-WHS development in Licoln Rd...), let alone the mess in Oz. It really escapes me why some punters are keen on this one - as if being burnt at 5.50, then 5, then 4.50 and lately $4 wasn't enough!!!

18-12-2004, 10:02 AM
THE KING says Please dont think about shorting these stocks all the eyes of NZ are now looking at them think more of a BUY chance not seen for a long time its always harder to BUY when stocks are DOWN..

Every victom that SELL is looseing vast amounts of money just so you can pick UP..[^][^][^]

mikescott
18-12-2004, 12:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by THE KING

THE KING says Please dont think about shorting these stocks all the eyes of NZ are now looking at them think more of a BUY chance not seen for a long time its always harder to BUY when stocks are DOWN..

Every victom that SELL is looseing vast amounts of money just so you can pick UP..[^][^][^]


U talk rubbish. That's what was said when the victims were selling out of the dot-com stocks.:D:D

18-12-2004, 02:40 PM
THE KING says if you cant tell a dot.com from a WAREHOUSE you need GLASSES... [^][^][^]

Bling_Bling
18-12-2004, 02:52 PM
I too think WHS is an opportunity, but not just yet. Timing is everything. Maybe when interest rates starts to fall again or when they quit Aussie is the time. WHS is still trading at a high P/E with possible further downgrades.

Longtack
18-12-2004, 03:26 PM
THE KING Posted - 18/12/2004 : 3:40:48 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE KING says if you cant tell a dot.com from a WAREHOUSE you need GLASSES...

preferably Warehouse ones - for $12.99 [:p]

winner69
18-12-2004, 04:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by Longtack

THE KING Posted - 18/12/2004 : 3:40:48 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE KING says if you cant tell a dot.com from a WAREHOUSE you need GLASSES...

preferably Warehouse ones - for $12.99 [:p]


No mate - $6.50 next week ... 50% off (most things) to give sales a boost

Wonder what the 'bargains' on Boxing Day will be like ... MUST BE MORE DISCOUNT TO GIVE AWAY .... AND HEAPS AND HEAPS AND HEAPS OF SURPLUS STOCK TO SELL BELOW COST