NZSX50 Index

[blackcap]

Hmmm... compared to the Aussi market ..yeah true

However the NZX50 looks a lot better if you add the rising kiwi$ into the mix..the All Ords even better:)

And that is what so many ppl forget... exchange rates. Look at the spectacular rise of the DOW.... o but wait what has happened to all my dow shares when I translate back to NZ dollars? Nothing thats what.

Also this overhyped GOLD rise is measured in USD> Try looking at the price of Gold in AUD then tell me if gold is rising as strongly as it is......

Im not saying the DOW and Gold are not rising, but it needs to be looked at in perspective before one gets carried away.

[peat]

Is it just my perception that the value of shares traded in recent days/weeks has been abnormally low...today 65m..yesterday 47m(?).....not sure what it means ...



indicating that the
“fuel” that propels the market in long-term sustained drive is running on empty.

[beacon]

Banks don't want to lend. Period. What you see is the outcome of the following policy:
Let's lend to property investors? ... Nah, they get overexhuberant too easily.
To first home buyers? ... they have to show a substantial saved deposit first
To small business? ... default risk is too high currently.
To mid sized business? ... umm, what's the collateral. won't let on future prospects alone
To big business? ... they don't want it from us (no demand)
To farmers? ... No way, cyclical business, we're just entering recovery.
To sharemarket investors? ... Haven't you learnt yet? Sharemarkets are unpredictable.
To exporters? ... Nah, global markets weak. Dollar is hurting them.
To importers? ... Forget it, domestic demand too weak. We're
What about personal credit? ... You're crazy to even be thinking about that.
So what will you do with all the cash you are raising, all the extra margins?
Look, S&P thinks we need it most. So, let's keep it. Afterall, we are the most deserving.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1129.gif

[Phaedrus]

Sorry Phaedrus ... counter playing you in this instance ... As I see this juncture as a timely opportunity to top up. (2/12/09) Fear not Belg, you are not "counter playing" me or the system. You have had "permission to buy" since 30/11/09.

In any case, if you do ever find yourself acting contrary to the chart, it won't be me you are ignoring - it will be the market.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1220.gif

[Footsie]

Phaedrus

How do you handle this situation where your indicators are firing off 5 or 6 indicators and back again all in a few weeks?
ONe cant simply buy/sell buy/sell at each turn. particularly if yuo are a long term holder

The obvious answer i'm guessing is that the current environment is one of "no buying" and stocks should be on stops.?

or can buying still continue under your model in this environement?

[Phaedrus]

I'm guessing is that the current environment is one of "no buying" and stocks should be on stops?That situation applies whenever the plot is anything other than light or dark green.


Can buying still continue under your model in this environment?Yes. The model controls market exposure by limiting buying to periods when the plot is green. Currently it is light green so buying can again resume, with caution.


One can't simply buy/sell buy/sell at each turn - particularly if you are a long-term holder.Right. Neither should you. You don't have to buy simply because the plot is green, neither do you have to sell if it is red. When the plot is anything other than green, buying is proscribed and you should be sure to act on any sell signals that are generated for any stocks that you hold. Long-term holders wanting a lower level of trading activity run slower indicators with looser stops, so that preference is already accommodated within this model and remains intact.

[Hoop]

Hmmm....I think the bull market correction has ended.
Phaedrus..Is your chart green now?

[Phaedrus]

Yes, it's back to green now Hoop.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1223-2.gif

It is interesting to note that the Dow and SP500 never even flickered.

[Hoop]

P Quote. "....It is interesting to note that the Dow and SP500 never even flickered."

Hmmm ..Phaedrus maybe their time for their second BM correction is still to come...and not far away.

I maybe bullish about the ASX and NZX because they seem to be finishing their second BM correction. If the correction has finished it would be a rather shallow correction. Sort of makes me a little cautious...but hey its still a bull market and we should all be fully in enjoying it....The slogan "Keeping it green" brings a whole new meaning .:cool:
Merry Xmas

[Snoopy]

How do you handle this situation where your indicators are firing off 5 or 6 indicators and back again all in a few weeks?
ONe cant simply buy/sell buy/sell at each turn. particularly if you are a long term holder


IMO, in practical terms unless you are actually 'buying the index', via an index fund or something, then most of the discussion on this thread is moot.

Why? Most people on this forum buy individual shares, not the index. While it is true that individual shares do tend follow the index to an extent, individual shares do not all follow the index very closely. In fact market practitioners have created a statistical analysis tool, termed 'Beta', that measures this behaviour.

A share with a Beta of 1.0 will by definition follow the underlying index exactly. A share with a Beta greater than one will follow the index but in an exaggerated way - soaring higher than the index, on average, as that tracks higher, but plunging deeper than the index when the index is on the way down. Conversely a company with a low Beta, say between 0.0 and 0.7, will 'follow the market' both up and down but in a far *less* exaggerated way.

Information on individual company 'Beta' is not always easy to obtain, but after some searching I found it as a statistic on the Reuter's website.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=TEL.NZ

For telecom, chosen as an example only, at the time of writing Beta is listed as 1.06. But if you switch to the Lyttelton Port Company (LPC), that company has a Beta of only 0.28. For LPC what happens to 'the market' is almost irrelevant.

Why do I mention this in the context of this thread? If you are worried by the excessive ups and downs of your portfolio, another solution (better IMO) would be forget about the NZX as an indicator and only select 'low Beta' shares to own.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Snoopy - you might find this document of interest - the latest PWC Cost of capital report - it lists the equity beta for most listed NZ stocks (along with their current WACC). You can have a look at the methodology on their website.

http://www.pwc.com/en_NZ/nz/cost-of-capital/Cost-Of-Capital-Sept-2009.pdf


Beta is a helpful guide if one is after more than average returns but we wont enter into a discussion around portfolio management and whether excessive returns are worthy of the risk taken etc etc

You mention LPC and its low beta - which it has because LPC has a steady dividend stream and is essentially priced as a bond - you get good dividends but when the market goes up the shareprice doesn't go up as fast as the market.

Whilst you say 'If you are worried by the excessive ups and downs of your portfolio, another solution (better IMO) would be forget about the NZX as an indicator and only select 'low Beta' shares to own' the opposite could be true in that if you believe the market is going to do OK over the next year than a selection of higher beta stocks should do well for you - such a portfolio would currently include PGW, PGC, NPX, THL, SCY and FPA

Interesting subject is beta

PS - I know you understand that P's chart is not a signal to buy or sell individual stocks but is an indicator of the general mood of the market which means that one acts appropriately for each of those individual stocks.

Interesting though that it appears that ALL stocks listed in that PWC report show a positive correlation to the market - which gives some added credence to the underlying impliactions of P's indicators

[winner69]

Funny how that list of high beta stocks mentioned above are talked about a lot at the moment as being cheap .... probably because they have been the big losers (ie the reason behind their hihg beta) which sort of suggests that they could be the next big winners (like the Dogs of the Dow theory)

Probably will be the winners eh

[Snoopy]

Snoopy - you might find this document of interest - the latest PWC Cost of capital report - it lists the equity beta for most listed NZ stocks (along with their current WACC). You can have a look at the methodology on their website.

http://www.pwc.com/en_NZ/nz/cost-of-capital/Cost-Of-Capital-Sept-2009.pdf


Thanks for that reference Winner, very revealing. Here is the note on how PWC calculate their equity Beta

"Equity Beta

Equity beta estimates used in calculating our WACCs are based on an average of monthly returns over (up to) five years, blended with weekly based estimates where less than three years of data is available. The beta estimates incorporate no adjustments to historical betas as measured."

I notice the results do not strictly tie into the Reuters website results, which I guess reflects slightly different methods of calculation. The average company monthly investment performance method over five years used by PWC makes some sense. But I guess you could use a different period to five years or look at weekly not monthly returns and get a Beta different result. Here are some of those reported differences:

Company, Reuters Beta, PWC Beta

LPC: 0.28, 0.38
TUA: 0.56, 0.79
PGW: 0.77, 1.76
RBD: 0.70, 0.48
CEN: 1.04, 1.01
TEL: 1.06, 0.99
SKC: 1.13, 1.36
SCT: 1.27, 1.21


I am not sure what calculation method Reuters used.



You mention LPC and its low beta - which it has because LPC has a steady dividend stream and is essentially priced as a bond - you get good dividends but when the market goes up the shareprice doesn't go up as fast as the market.


There is another reason for the low Beta associated with LPC. The company is almost behaving like an unlisted company because council owners control some 90% of the shares on issue. If the price goes down too much Christchurch City Holdings has been buying shares on market limiting the downside. The upside is also limited because if the Port of Otago and Lyttelton Port can reach a merger agreement the remaining listed shares could be taken out by compulsory acquisition, thus limiting upside potential for small shareholders.



Whilst you say 'If you are worried by the excessive ups and downs of your portfolio, another solution (better IMO) would be forget about the NZX as an indicator and only select 'low Beta' shares to own' the opposite could be true in that if you believe the market is going to do OK over the next year than a selection of higher beta stocks should do well for you - such a portfolio would currently include PGW, PGC, NPX, THL, SCY and FPA


Yes although I am not sure that you can say that the Beta of NPX, PGW and PGC will not change because of their respective heavy capital reconstruction programs over the last few months. I also note the wildly different PGW Beta as published by PWC (PGW Beta = 1.76) and Reuters (PGW Beta = 0.77).



Interesting though that it appears that ALL stocks listed in that PWC report show a positive correlation to the market


I have to admit I was surprised by that too. However, if you consider what has happened over a five year period, as PWC did, then the fact that the market has tended to go up and all shares (that have survived) tend to go up is not that much of a surprising result. It would be interesting to see what those Beta calculations would be over a shorter period, say two years.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Snoopy - different timing and different periods do give quiute different results.

Like (my calcs) for PGW on monthly periods give a 5 year beta of .82 / 3 year .76 and 1 year 1.37 (the long term ones closer to the Reuters figures eh) ...... then on a weekly basis this year the beta is 2.0 (Using the NZX50 is not a good thing as it is a gross index but I don't have the capital index data handy)

This year the NZX is up 16% - even though PGW is down 57% the PGW beta is positive - there has been a positive correlation between weekly changes in the NZX50 and the PGW shareprice. Intuitively maybe doesn't sound right but then again the NZX has had 25 down weeks (and 25 up weeks) and when you consider that PGW has had 43 down weeks in the same period having a positive correlation is not surprising ... rememeber it is the quantum of weekly changes that matter and we are working on weekly changes.

Somehow it just seems easier to follow the trend lines on charts eh.

[Phaedrus]

Am I right is saying that the NZSX50 shows good respect for the bollinger bands?

Bollinger Bands are usually plotted at 2 standard deviation levels above and below a moving average.
Elementary statistical analysis states that approximately 67% of future price movement should be contained within one standard deviation and approximately 95% within two standard deviations, so it is therefore only to be expected that most all NZSX50 action lies within its Bollinger bands.

Backtesting Bollinger band trading signals against this Index results in a handsome loss. You could achieve that by simply "buying and holding"!!!!!!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX14.gif

[winner69]

Those Bollinger bands (to my reading of them) would indicate a not so good January belg .... the bands are widening since coming together early December and the current NZX50 price is close to the upper band ... so even if the primary uptrend continues one would expect the NZX to do so at a lower rate.

Do you see something different Belg?

My view from looking at the yahoo chart

[Hoop]

Those Bollinger bands (to my reading of them) would indicate a not so good January belg .... the bands are widening since coming together early December and the current NZX50 price is close to the upper band ... so even if the primary uptrend continues one would expect the NZX to do so at a lower rate.

Do you see something different Belg?

My view from looking at the yahoo chart

Don't entirely agree Winner
From history after the end of a Bull market correction the index tends to hug the top end of the Bollinger bands for quite considerable distance upwards and can be steep. An uptrending index favours the Bollinger top line area and vice versa. EDIT ADDITION... Therefore assuming the NZX50 remains in this cyclic bull cycle a break upwards from a Bollinger band squeeze should see the index hugging the top band and breaking the 3250 resistance in quick time thus ending this BM correction......lets hope..huh
But in saying the above statement... sometimes Bollinger band narrowing then widening produces a trend change which peters and reverses shortly afterwards hence my orange eliptical with a question mark. Bollinger bands are not not my favourite indicator as I've had more failures from them than I would like...so notice Winner that I used the words "not entirely agree" rather than the word "disagree" ;)

This crappy chart (sorry) below attempts to show the index hugging the top Bollinger line.

Yes I know I spelt corrections wrong :o... too time consuming to correct now)
.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/nz5004012010.png

Another Edit:o...
Belgarion Quote "....And, if the above is correct, are we looking at a pretty good Jan 2010?..."

Yes I think so ..if the 3250 resistance is broken upwards (a good chance) then 3400 is the next target area.

[Hoop]

Hoop, Too early to call it the end of that BM correction?
No!...:)

Belg...Technically speaking the BM Correction (2) ended on Tuesday 5th Jan 2010.:)

However, when confirmed, you can say it ended on Friday 18 December 2009 when the 2 month downtrend ended ...the market opened at 3232 which was above the downtrend line of 3229. At this point the market could see the bullish double bottom (3090-3095) and the TA indicators turned positive from then giving out buy signals. I asked if Phaedrus chart had turned green (post #274) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=286952&postcount=274) on that following Wednesday (23rd Dec) and his chart had turned green (post #275) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=286992&postcount=275)
At this point the end of the BM correction was unconfirmed.

Confirmations since then have been:
1... 5th January 2010 the NZX50 index re-entered the space above the old 10 month old primary uptrend line again. (resumption of the primary uptrend)
2... 5th January 2010 the NZX50 index broke above the old high (3257) set on 20th October 2009...technically ending the BM correction.

Successful retests in the near-future of the new support line (3257) will be future confirmations to eliminate doubt of a bull trap.

The NZX50 closed today at 3285 ...so far its looking good.

Where to from here.:confused:
Well the charts seems bullish:) so if the retesting of the support line(3257) or the primary trend line is respected we have to go back to the August 2008 sucker rally to find the next biggish resistance level a zone at 3375-3400.... there is a minor resistance level at 3300.

Looking from a TA target point of view
1...From the bottom (2410) to the first BMCorrection top (2875) = 465 gain
2...From the BMC1 bottom (2734) to BMC2 top (3253) = 523 gain
Assuming the gain will be similar again at the next correction (BMC3) lets say 500.. then...
.. BMC3 approximate due point is BMC2 bottom? 3080 + 500 = 3580

If the rise was proved unreliable due to low volumes and a Bull trap occurs expect the NZX50 index to retest the 3095 area once again.

[Dr_Who]

Maybe it is time to reduce our portfolio when all the brokers are telling their clients that 2010 will have return of over 20%. It is usually a warning sign and time to sell when the brokers are bullish on the market. :D:D

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3216871/Air-New-Zealand-reveals-new-Barbie-uniform

[troyvdh]

...what would be really revealing is what the "brokers" are actually investing themselves..its all very nice to give advice...but in my experience brokers I have spoken to are not investors...me thinks it would be good if those promoting an investment actually fronted up as to their exposure.....

[Phaedrus]

This super-simple version of the Market Strength Indicator utilises trigger levels that give the lowest level of activity and the lowest number of losing signals. This reduces overall performance by less than 2% pa but nevertheless still gives timely entry and exit signals, having kept you completely out of the market during 17 months of technical weakness.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX5046.gif

[CJ]

They tried with their banking failures. Didn't succeed. Now they're doing it with their volcanoes. Mr Mrkt's been looking for a reason to take a breather ... and I think she's/he's found it.Apparently the dying wish of the Iceland financial system was that its ashes would be spread over Europe.

[mr.needs]

Apparently the dying wish of the Iceland financial system was that its ashes would be spread over Europe.

Hahaha classic!! Great chat.

[Hoop]

C j......lol

[peat]

Apparently the dying wish of the Iceland financial system was that its ashes would be spread over Europe.

Dear Iceland,

We said send CASH…

Regards,
UK Superannuation Funds

[lissica]

Dear Iceland,

We said send CASH…

Regards,
UK Superannuation Funds

Dear UK Superannuation Funds,

My bad, I thought you said Ash, not Cash.

Takk Fyrir,

Iceland

[ratkin]

“It’s too early to make jokes about the Icelandic ash cloud… we need to let the dust settle first”

[Hoop]

Breaking News!!

Iceland has exported 65 million tons of fertilizer yesterday.
An official assured that this production can be mantained for the immediate future.

The Fiance Minister is ecstatic as this is magnificent news for the struggling Icelandic economy. He was quoted as saying "This very large export revenue should be received any time soon as the bills for payment are in the mail."

[Bilo]

Why did NZX feel they had to introduce algorithmic trading? And not tell all market participants that they were going to do it? And not give shareholders time to remove their investment? Who has to these devilish pesky tools, the bane of the small trader? Were listed companies given the option to withdraw from the NZX?

[upside_umop]

Probably best not to get caught up on the small stuff, Bilo. I take it from the threads your a long term investor, and the small day to day movements should bother you much in the long term. Markets follow a 'random' walk day to day, but over the long term are highly correlated to fundamentals.

I've said this quote before, but I'll say it again, most should agree that:

In the short term, markets are usually highly inefficient.
In the long term, markets are usually highly efficient.

Also remember, these traders sometimes push the stock to the upside, out of line with 'fundamentals.' This can be a key time to exit out. It works both ways...

[Bilo]

Probably best not to get caught up on the small stuff, Bilo. I take it from the threads your a long term investor, and the small day to day movements should bother you much in the long term. Markets follow a 'random' walk day to day, but over the long term are highly correlated to fundamentals.

I've said this quote before, but I'll say it again, most should agree that:

In the short term, markets are usually highly inefficient.
In the long term, markets are usually highly efficient.

Also remember, these traders sometimes push the stock to the upside, out of line with 'fundamentals.' This can be a key time to exit out. It works both ways...

Thanks for the reassurance UD but have you been living in a closet for the past two years? My observation is that TA has trumped FA at every turn. I hold liquidity control and bots as prime enablers of off market share-market manipulations. In the long term we are all dead, very efficient that process.

[Bilo]

Why did NZX feel they had to introduce algorithmic trading? And not tell all market participants that they were going to do it? And not give shareholders time to remove their investment? Who has to these devilish pesky tools, the bane of the small trader? Were listed companies given the option to withdraw from the NZX?

I am beginning to like this Mary Schapiro. Finally an acceptance that the share trading process is "very badly broken" . (read bot driven -off market option traded - derivative afflicted - index traded -CFD liquidity poisoned = internationalised capital divestment market).
http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/20/news/economy/schapiro_gensler_senate/index.htm

[upside_umop]

Thanks for the reassurance UD but have you been living in a closet for the past two years? My observation is that TA has trumped FA at every turn. I hold liquidity control and bots as prime enablers of off market share-market manipulations. In the long term we are all dead, very efficient that process.

Not in a closet, this happens all the time. TA is reactive to FA, so it cannot trump FA. Long term, markets are still efficient.

Basically, if your not happy, dont play/invest. If your worried about day to day movements, dont be a trader.

[Hoop]

Bad news today.

NZX50 has today broken major support at 3060 to commence a downtrend...It has joined the Shanghai France CAC Australia AORD indexes which have already entered a bear trend. More in Asia may follow today. update as I write.. Nikkei entered at opening


Intra day (12.23pm) at 3039.
If the NZX50 drops below 3027 it is another confirmation step that the cyclic bull has died. (Another confirmation is a future rally which fails to make a higher than 3350 level).

I have watched Shanghai leading the way since the 2008//2009 crash..unfortunately it was the first** to enter a downtrend on 27 April and is the first** to enter into a confirmed cyclic bear market status with the primary support break 2660 on 12 May. NOTE All Ords is the Second... today confirming cyclic bear market status

** Major world sharemarkets.

In Europe (as of today) only the CAC one of the big three is in a confirmed downtrend

If all these market corrections are based on Europe 's problems as the media tell us then why is China the first to go bear followed today by the Australia All Ords the two countries which escaped most of the worlds 2008/2009 bad recession ?

see my todays post on Goldilocks and the 3 bears thread for more details

[Lawso]

Can't wait to see how Wall St goes overnight and to the closing bell at 8am our time. I'm picking (hoping for) a steadying on today's close and perhaps a modest rise.

[percy]

Must be near the bottom of this correction as wife has been at me not to buy anymore shares and put the money in the bank!!!

[Lawso]

. . . time to get those spreadsheets out and pick up stocks that have been most sold down. Bottom picking is risky (mitigate the risk by placing targetted buys). The overall macros suggest we're not going to hit Phase 2 of the GFC.

You got it, Belg. I reckon this is the time for some bottom trawling. Trouble is I haven't got much bait at the moment to put on the hook!

[foodee]

The overall macros suggest we're not going to hit Phase 2 of the GFC.

Oh?
I thought Phase 2 is more likely than not likely.

[Hoop]

ATM ...intraday 3070...........The NZX50 has broken back through its 3060 primary support indicating a resumption of the cyclic bull market condition.
The All Ords still in Bear market as I write

[foodee]

Hadn't forgot you foodee. Just couldn't find time to post all my thoughts as to why not ... so here the next best thing ... http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109669/taking-setbacks-in-stride;_ylt=Arj3pg9553icpQTPMeKSmbO7YWsA;_ylu=X3oD MTE1bm1yam8wBHBvcwM4BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNvcG luaW9ubWFya2U-?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Thanks.........but some facts scattered elsewhere like:-
>global debt is 1X global GDP lots anyway
>"PIGS" - list may grow
>US debt to China in the order of 800bill

Add to that political instability and it is an unsavoury mix.

[CJ]

>"PIGS" - list may grow

Have you got enough I's in there. Ireland, Iceland (and Italy??)

[foodee]

Belg

Oops. slip of the finger-have edited.

Read article in Forbes mag - ''debt bomb"

Wonder if sovereign debt is an unsecured loan

cheers

[COLIN]

Thanks.........but some facts scattered elsewhere like:-

>US debt to China in the order of 800bill

.

800 billion is not much, against the total US debt which I think is somewhere in excess of 13 trillion and counting.
Actually I thought China held a larger portion of that, than 800b.

[Hoop]

ATM ...intraday 3070...........The NZX50 has broken back through its 3060 primary support indicating a resumption of the cyclic bull market condition.
The All Ords still in Bear market as I write

Friday close 3048 (+13 0.4%)...slipped back into bear territory..hmmm... The American phase "Sell in May and go away" sure rang true this year

[Hoop]

May is almost over. Any cliches about buying in June? :)

Don't know Belg
I've copied my old post from "when to re-enter the market thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5794-When-to-re-enter-the-market&p=197137#post197137)" to save typing time.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.sharetrader.co.images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by scamper http://www.sharetrader.co.images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.showthread.php?p=197106#post197 106)
isn't there some old chestnut that reads "sell in May and go away"?
i don't actually know the background to that, but it should be considered by the cautious.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Old sayings have a generalised facts based around it. Remember it is generalised and sometimes doesn't come true e.g DOW 2007.

In NZ I'm always cautious around NZX reporting time.. August Sept October. It tends to be a seasonal thing so consider that we are opposite to Northern Hemisphere but remind yourself the large Northern Hemisphere markets do have some network effect.

The Background...
Quotes from CNN money 2/5/2005 (http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/29/markets/worstsixmonths/)
.... The second quarter, which starts in April, tends to be weaker, as the positive effects of holiday bonuses and the holiday retail sales period fade out, and a "spring cleaning" mentality kicks in, Hirsch said.
As summer rolls around, people would rather be spending less time in the office and more time enjoying the weather. That change in psychology often extends to the market as well, Hirsch said, with lower trading volume and more rangebound markets.
When the fall creeps in, the psychology switches to getting back to school and back to work and, from a stock standpoint, to cleaning house. To that end, September is traditionally the biggest loser on a percentage basis for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
October, which starts the fourth quarter, can be tough at the beginning but usually turns around by month end, and the quarter as a whole tends to be more upbeat, especially once work bonuses and the holiday sales period kick in.

How true is the saying ??
quote CNN money same article..
....To demonstrate the strength of the November through April period versus May through October, the Stock Trader's Almanac tracks the gains you'd see if you invested $10,000 in the Dow industrials on Nov. 1 of each year and then sold April 30.
If you'd done that every year since 1950, you'd have earned $492,060 on a $10,000 investment, according to the Almanac. But if you'd reversed the whole process, and invested the compounded $10,000 during the May-October period, after 54 years you would have ended up with a $318 loss.
For the S&P, the gains would be $349,165 over the 54 years during the "best" six months and gains of $7,102 during the "worst" six months....
Last edited by Hoop; 29-04-2008 at 10:48 AM.

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX529.gif

[Hoop]

Thanks Ph.

Oct 09 to now looks like an expanding wedge in a bull market *broadening) with greater down thank up angle. Isn't this a pattern associated with markets pretty much trading sideway that we've all be predicting? It could also be the beginning of a bullish diamond pattern? I understand that such patterns aren't that common and one is advised tightening (shortening) of trading horizons (swing trading) until shorter term indicators give an indication of where two next.

The last two tops look suspiciously like a double top too. A less than wonderful sign.
Hi Belg
The very rare diamond is a bearish pattern and has to turn down off I (see diagram) to end its formation. At that point (if it happens) the MA50 and MA200 would be close to meeting. If the MA50 crosses down below MA200 then the diamond pattern has a high probability of ending in tears...if the MA 50 turns up and doesn't cross the MA200 then there's hope that the Diamond pattern will break not totally formed by continuing the spike up bullishly breaking out at the I area..effectively saying it would then not be a Diamond pattern as the I point is not formed. Hence the Diamond is logically a bearish pattern.
The same applies to G and H if these points aren't formed then the Diamond didn't exist and it will be recorded in the statistics as a Megaphone with a lower chanced bullish outcome G.... or to the predicted bearish outcome at H

Breaking the uptrend channel in early January..bull traps...breaking the primary support at 3060..a double top (sort of)...A rare bearish Megaphone (broadening top) formation just competed with an undetermined result (yet) .....all these are bear signs... P chart is red as...There is not much to cheer about... is there?....

The first diagram shows if the megaphone pattern ends without a breakout then it would not have been a megaphone at all but a much rarer diamond pattern still in the process of forming.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Megaphonediamondpattern.png

As you see with the above diagram there are peaks and bottoms which can be watched and with care and pattern knowledge an investor can be extra watchful around these key point areas to "better predict" the markets next move.

Below chart is the NZX50 with the formation drawn in.
.



http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX5028052010.png

[Aaron]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX529.gif

Pardon my ignorance can you (easily)explain how you calculate the market strength indicator. Unless its a trade secret.
It can't be just volume of shares traded or it would go up when everyone is selling.

[Vtrader]

Aaron,
Try here
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/flash/r1_charthelp_flash_menu.asp?sy=nzx

Explanations of chart terms and calculations
V.

[Phaedrus]

Can you (easily) explain how you calculate the market strength indicator?The broad principles of the MSI are described in these posts :-
"Dow" thread, Page 39, post #578
"AllOrds" thread, Page 1, post #1
"Bottom or Bear Rally?" thread, Page 49, post #723
"Bottom or Bear Rally?" thread, Page 66, post #982
In short, the MSI is a composite indicator, combining signals from multiple conventional technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving averages, Directional Movement Indicator, etc, and using "all" time periods for each indicator. The actual calculations involved are complex and utilise hundreds of lines of MetaStock code.

[Hoop]

Awesome Hoop. Thanks. My summary would be ... It aint looking good, long term holders should be very nervous ... Is that about right? :D
As of Friday 28th the answer is yes.
but Monday is another day and another piece of data will be added to the TA puzzle....

[Phaedrus]

With the Market Strength Indicator at very weak levels, the Index is still Bearish.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX619.gif

With its colour coded price plot the MSI composite indicator is an interesting concept, but the signals it gives are no better than those from the individual conventional indicators that comprise it.
This chart shows 6 readily available alternative indicators that you all have access to. You can see that their signals are, to all intents and purposes, identical to those derived from the MSI composite indicator.
ANY of these indicators would have got you out of the market well before the 2008 crash gathered momentum. More importantly, they KEPT you out of the market as the inexorable slide continued for over a year. All of these indicators got you back into the market just a few weeks after it bottomed out and prices were rising again. (I'm sure you all realise that NO system will EVER get you in at the bottom. No-one rings a bell there and it is only evident in retrospect.)

Each and every one of the 6 indicators shown here could easily be used to control the colour-coding of the price plot. The results would be almost indistinguishable from the MSI colour coding that you see here.

The sole advantage of the MSI is that no time period or any other parameter input is required. This very effectively puts paid to the the usual "it's all done with hindsight" criticism that ST's resident technophobes wheel out from time to time. The same absence of input is also a disadvantage, in that the MSI sensitivity cannot be altered should you want it to be more (or less) active with any given stock or Index.

[CJ]

The sole advantage of the MSI is that no time period or any other parameter input is required. This very effectively puts paid to the the usual "it's all done with hindsight" criticism that ST's resident technophobes wheel out from time to time. The same absence of input is also a disadvantage, in that the MSI sensitivity cannot be altered should you want it to be more (or less) active with any given stock or Index.How is the MSI calculated. I haven't seen it on the simple finance sites like google and yahoo - where can I find it myself?

[mr.needs]

The sole advantage of the MSI is that no time period or any other parameter input is required.

One quick question about your MSI - why do you have the strong/weak levels on your indicator at ±0.6? For an indicator that does not require any parameter inputs, it seems like a rather arbitrary decision. Setting it at ±0.5 or ±0.7 would give (slightly) different results wouldn't it.

Is it convenient that +0.6 is the highest the indicator got during the 2008 bear market? If the threshold was set lower, say ±0.5, we would have been back in the market briefly in August/September 08. Wouldn't have been a big loss but also wouldn't have kept you fully out of the market during the crash like you claim.


How is the MSI calculated. I haven't seen it on the simple finance sites like google and yahoo - where can I find it myself?

Phaedrus describes his MSI as a composite indicator, this means it is created by combining indicators A, B and C to create a new super indicator D. I don't think he has released the exact details of how he constructed the indicator, but there is plenty of info on the net if you want to try something yourself.

I do however recommend you exercise caution before jumping in and trying something like this out for you self. These sorts of composite indicators are prone to problems such as overfitting (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting) and the curse of dimensionality (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_dimensionality) etc.

That said, the MSI still provides a novel approach to determining market sentiment and I appreciate its nifty colour coding scheme!

[Phaedrus]

How is the MSI calculated? I haven't seen it on the simple finance sites like google and yahoo - where can I find it myself?It is an indicator that I created CJ, and as such is only seen here on ST. It is a composite indicator, combining signals from multiple conventional technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving averages, Directional Movement Indicator, etc, and using "all" time periods for each indicator. These multiple results for each indicator are combined into a single "score", and "scores" from all indicators are then further combined to provide the final MSI level, ranging from -1 to + 1 with zero being exactly neutral. The actual calculations involved are complex and necessitate the use of hundreds of lines of MetaStock code.


One quick question about your MSI - why do you have the strong/weak levels on your indicator at ±0.6? For an indicator that does not require any parameter inputs, it seems like a rather arbitrary decision. Setting it at ±0.5 or ±0.7 would give (slightly) different results wouldn't it? Yes, it would. Slightly. In fact, if you look back at the charts on page 20 and page 22 of this thread you can see that I used 0.7 trigger levels then. You can see how little difference this made - the plots are all but indistinguishable. The MSI plot itself is of course exactly the same in all cases and quite useable as is. If we want to have the MSI level controlling the colour of the main price chart, we have to define how many levels (colours) we want and how soon (at what level) each is triggered. These are of course completely arbitrary decisions and a matter of preference.


These sorts of composite indicators are prone to problems such as overfitting and the curse of dimensionality etc.Not this one, Mr N! Overfitting is a potential problem if you are using backtesting to find the "best" parameters to use. The MSI does not use backtesting at all.
The curse of dimensionality is what causes networks with lots of irrelevant inputs to be behave relatively badly. Unsupervised learning algorithms are typically prone to this problem. The MSI has no irrelevant inputs as it uses only a relatively small selection of conventional indicators. It has no feedback loop, does not learn and makes no predictions. It is not trying to tell us where the Index will be tomorrow or next week. It simply and objectively assesses current market strength.


The MSI still provides a novel approach to determining market sentiment and I appreciate its nifty colour coding scheme!It's not really novel, Mr N. All it does it combine a few common indicators into one. The nifty colour scheme is not an integral part of the MSI and can be applied to any indicator. I have just been playing around to see how simply I could present complex information.

[GTM 3442]

Interesting to see some shares (e.g. PPL) that have held up very well so far get hammered today on tiny volumes. Well I guess its just too much for many small investors.

Sometimes you just have to sell something to pay the school fees (or put a new gearbox in the Skoda).

[Phaedrus]

Update of chart on page 20 :-
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX76.gif

[bambi]

Phaedrus, any chance of an update to your chart? It seems like most of the indicators have crossed over again.

[arcticblue]

It seems like the trend must have reversed in the last week I had hoped there might be an update to the chart to confirm this. Also can anyone explain exactly how the market strength indicator that is on Phaedrus' chart is calculated? I can't seem find any definitive info on this particular indicator and it seems very useful.

[Phaedrus]

Can anyone explain exactly how the market strength indicator is calculated? The broad principles of the Market Strength Indicator are described in these posts :-
"Dow" thread, Page 39, post #578
"AllOrds" thread, Page 1, post #1
"Bottom or Bear Rally?" thread, Page 49, post #723
"Bottom or Bear Rally?" thread, Page 66, post #982
In short, the MSI is a composite indicator, combining signals from multiple conventional technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving averages, Directional Movement Indicator, etc, and using "all" time periods for each indicator. The actual calculations involved are complex and utilise hundreds of lines of MetaStock code.


I can't seem find any definitive info on this particular indicator and it seems very useful.It is my own creation and I certainly find it useful, but note that its signals are no better than many other indicators. Its chief virtue is that you do not need to select an appropriate time period - the indicator itself has no user definable parameters.


It seems like the trend must have reversed in the last week.
All the indicators shown here triggered over 3 weeks ago and the market has risen nicely since then.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX922.gif

[arcticblue]

Thanks, I'll read up a bit more on this indicator you've created. I like the sound of it that it avoids having to choose the correct time periods, this is the bit I've struggled most with when trying to use TA.

It looks like the graph would have got you into the market again pretty close to the bottom, wish I'd found this site a month or two back.

[Footsie]

Phaedrus for Super City Mayor - You simplify complicated things

[Hoop]

Europe/USA rallied up 1.5% - 2.5% overnight,
Hands up those who thought the NZX50 would rally up over 1 to 1.5% today.

I'm not surprised.

Don't get me wrong ..the NZX50 has been a good performer since the March 2009 bottom.

Then why the poor rise so far today? up 21 to 3239 (+0.6%)... read my latest post Here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER&p=321908#post321908) for my reason.

Hint the 3240 level is the problem

[Phaedrus]

It is good to be fully invested at times like this!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX25.gif

[darksentinel]

Indeed it is, thank you Phaedrus.
Wil you let us know when the first indicators are out that things aren't looking so rosy?

[arcticblue]

Phaedrus,any chance of an update of the chart? I think the chart might be heading in the wrong direction now.

[Phaedrus]

Here you are AB. I have upgraded my original "4 level 4 colour" system to the "6 level 8 colour" system that I use elsewhere. As you can see a couple of conventional indicators not have triggered Sell signals..... yet.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZZSX315.gif

[arcticblue]

Thanks, it seems like my trend lines are being broken in my individual stocks too, guess it's time to cut my losses.

[Arbitrage]

Yes I agree Belg. Timber and building material supplies have already been identified as winners. Once the initial shock settles, there will be many opportunities.

[Arbitrage]

Some bounce today. Nikkei and ASX also up.

[CJ]

Yes I agree Belg. Timber and building material supplies have already been identified as winners. Once the initial shock settles, there will be many opportunities.Surely it has to be wider than this. Anything that needs to be replaced that is covered by insurance will see an increase in demand (ie. cars, furniture and fittings, cloths). Luxuries and experiences (ie travel) will see a downturn as people consolidate.

[Arbitrage]

Yes it will, but only some of these will be products from NZ.

[Lizard]

Some bounce today. Nikkei and ASX also up.

Hard to see Nikkei trading up after lunch break now they've pulled the 50 kamikaze workers out of the nuclear plant.

[Phaedrus]

Will you let us know when the first indicators are out that things aren't looking so rosy?Maybe tomorrow is the day, DS. You can see that every single indicator on the chart below is right on the verge of signalling the end of the 9 month bull market that we have all enjoyed.

This chart also illustrates that, while the MSI is technically interesting, it doesn't tell us anything that conventional indicators can't. Its main advantage is that there is no need to select appropriate indicator parameters to suit each trend/index/stock.

See how well any of the indicators shown here kept you out of the market while it continued to plunge. See how they got you back in again when the market showed signs of increasing strength. The most noteworthy point here, though, is the surprisingly high level of corellation between these 6 very different types of indicator.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX620.gif

[BIRMANBOY]

Call me a newbie (I am!) but when I look at your chart all I see is a probable slight correction before it continues the bull run. Its corrected in a similar fashion (to a lesser degree) three times in the nine months. What makes you think its not a correction again but the end of the bull run?
Maybe tomorrow is the day, DS. You can see that every single indicator on the chart below is right on the verge of signalling the end of the 9 month bull market that we have all enjoyed.

This chart also illustrates that, while the MSI is technically interesting, it doesn't tell us anything that conventional indicators can't. Its main advantage is that there is no need to select appropriate indicator parameters to suit each trend/index/stock.

See how well any of the indicators shown here kept you out of the market while it continued to plunge. See how they got you back in again when the market showed signs of increasing strength. The most noteworthy point here, though, is the surprisingly high level of corellation between these 6 very different types of indicator.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX620.gif

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX620.gif


Call me a newbie (I am!) but when I look at your chart all I see is a probable slight correction before it continues the bull run. Its corrected in a similar fashion (to a lesser degree) three times in the nine months. What makes you think its not a correction again but the end of the bull run?What makes you think that I think it's the end of the bull run?!

I have no opinion either way - these indicators are all there to monitor the Index and no attempt is made to predict where it will go next. Change "probable" to "possible" in your excellent post and I would agree with you 100%.

These indicators provide us with a totally objective assessment of the strength of any trend or retracement. They enable us to ascertain whether the current correction is bigger than the usual and thus of some significance. The chart enables us to filter out market noise and see whether the underlying trend is still intact - or not.

[BIRMANBOY]

You said this in previous post......"Maybe tomorrow is the day, DS. You can see that every single indicator on the chart below is right on the verge of signalling the end of the 9 month bull market that we have all enjoyed." Looks like an opinion one way to me :-) Semantics maybe..I certainly have no problem with you either having an opinion or a "bob each way". As a relative newcomer I know nothing ,as per Sergeant Schultz from Hogans Heros. I love the charts you put together obviously a lot of experience behind what you do. The problem I have is that the charts only seem to cover the historical data...I'm looking for the the charts for the next month or so. Can you help?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX620.gif

What makes you think that I think it's the end of the bull run?!

I have no opinion either way - these indicators are all there to monitor the Index and no attempt is made to predict where it will go next. Change "probable" to "possible" in your excellent post and I would agree with you 100%.

These indicators provide us with a totally objective assessment of the strength of any trend or retracement. They enable us to ascertain whether the current correction is bigger than the usual and thus of some significance. The chart enables us to filter out market noise and see whether the underlying trend is still intact - or not.

[Phaedrus]

You said this in previous post......"Maybe tomorrow is the day, DS. You can see that every single indicator on the chart below is right on the verge of signalling the end of the 9 month bull market that we have all enjoyed." Looks like an opinion one way to me!It shouldn't. DS wanted a chart update so I gave him one. The Index is at an interesting point in that many indicators are very close to their trigger levels. As you pointed out, we have been at this stage before and should the Index rise it will simply re-confirm the existing "medium-term" uptrend. If the Index falls, multiple signals would fire marking this as a significant retracement rather than a minor correction in an ongoing uptrend. I really, truly, have no opinion as to which is the more likely. I am NOT indifferent as to the outcome though. For me, it is business as usual in NZ if these signals don't fire. If they do, it won't be.


The problem I have is that the charts only seem to cover the historical data...I'm looking for the charts for the next month or so. Can you help?'Fraid not. I hate to break this to you, but nobody can help you with that sort of request. Charts can be right up to the minute, but can only plot historical data - that's the only sort there is.
I have the same problem with fundamental analysis - it, too, seems to be based on historical data. What I want is next months profit announcements - can you help?

[darksentinel]

Hi Phaedrus,

Thanks for that. I'm aware that the MSI is an aggregate indicator and generally (by definition) correlates with other indicators, but it is useful having one that does not require tweaking of intervals/sensitivities.


I certainly have no problem with you either having an opinion or a "bob each way". As a relative newcomer I know nothing ,as per Sergeant Schultz from Hogans Heros. I love the charts you put together obviously a lot of experience behind what you do. The problem I have is that the charts only seem to cover the historical data...I'm looking for the the charts for the next month or so. Can you help?

My understanding is that Phaedrus is not offering an opinion because he is just providing graphs, which are representations of empirical data. The conclusions you draw from the data are your own.

Historical data is the only data there is. Future data is conjecture, divination, etc. From the past data we can try to draw conclusions on what is happening now, but projecting into the future is dangerous and unlikely to be accurate if you attempt to do it with any degree of precision - and charts imply a lot of precision. You're unlikely to see more than trendlines from most of the people here, and the trendlines don't predict future data, rather they project extensions of the current trend, and the future data itself, as it occurs, will indicate whether the price is still following this trend.

The market will either go up, down, or stay the same tomorrow (and for all days after). The chart suggests that if the market were to go down in the immediate future, then the market would turn into a bear market (donwtrend), which some will say is a signal to sell the more exposed of your stocks (or all of them), while others will see this as the beginning of an opportunity to accumulate bargains. This is a personal view matter, and opinions on ST are quite divided :p.
The next few days will show whether this is a correction (i.e. May was a point of inflection) or a turning point (May was a local maximum).

That's my view, anyway.

[darksentinel]

What I want is next months profit announcements - can you help?
As I peer into my crystal ball, it suggests that ALF will not be reporting a profit :P.

NB: sorry for the double post, took too long writing my answer.

[BIRMANBOY]

"I have the same problem with fundamental analysis - it, too, seems to be based on historical data. What I want is next months profit announcements - can you help"....I think that's called insider trading isnt it? I suppose what you are doing in examining results, trends and conditions is the only way to beat the odds over a sustained period. Companies can manipulate media releases and lay red herrings out for public consumption but they cannot consistantly hide the underlying results of their efforts or lack thereof. Its all very interesting ...first time in my life where I have actually made money without "doing" or "producing" anything. There is probably some deep philosophical issues in there somewhere but too deep for me.
It shouldn't. DS wanted a chart update so I gave him one. The Index is at an interesting point in that many indicators are very close to their trigger levels. As you pointed out, we have been at this stage before and should the Index rise it will simply re-confirm the existing "medium-term" uptrend. If the Index falls, multiple signals would fire marking this as a significant retracement rather than a minor correction in an ongoing uptrend. I really, truly, have no opinion as to which is the more likely. I am NOT indifferent as to the outcome though. For me, it is business as usual in NZ if these signals don't fire. If they do, it won't be.

'Fraid not. I hate to break this to you, but nobody can help you with that sort of request. Charts can be right up to the minute, but can only plot historical data - that's the only sort there is.
I have the same problem with fundamental analysis - it, too, seems to be based on historical data. What I want is next months profit announcements - can you help?

[darksentinel]

I suppose what you are doing in examining results, trends and conditions is the only way to beat the odds over a sustained period. Companies can manipulate media releases and lay red herrings out for public consumption but they cannot consistantly hide the underlying results of their efforts or lack thereof.

The charts strategy alone does not concern itself with the workings of the company. The focus is share price activity, which reflects relevant external factors.
It's one method to avoid having to deal with intricate financial reports, and number fudging :).

If you aren't aware of them, I'd suggest looking up the definitions and differences between fundamental and technical analysis, to provide both a starting point and a frame of reference.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes, as you say..everyone has their own opinions and methods...personally I'd like to see a little more research into the "divination" system. There must be some companies doing research on time travel out there? Just loved the De Lorean in Back to the Future.
Hi Phaedrus,

Thanks for that. I'm aware that the MSI is an aggregate indicator and generally (by definition) correlates with other indicators, but it is useful having one that does not require tweaking of intervals/sensitivities.



My understanding is that Phaedrus is not offering an opinion because he is just providing graphs, which are representations of empirical data. The conclusions you draw from the data are your own.

Historical data is the only data there is. Future data is conjecture, divination, etc. From the past data we can try to draw conclusions on what is happening now, but projecting into the future is dangerous and unlikely to be accurate if you attempt to do it with any degree of precision - and charts imply a lot of precision. You're unlikely to see more than trendlines from most of the people here, and the trendlines don't predict future data, rather they project extensions of the current trend, and the future data itself, as it occurs, will indicate whether the price is still following this trend.

The market will either go up, down, or stay the same tomorrow (and for all days after). The chart suggests that if the market were to go down in the immediate future, then the market would turn into a bear market (donwtrend), which some will say is a signal to sell the more exposed of your stocks (or all of them), while others will see this as the beginning of an opportunity to accumulate bargains. This is a personal view matter, and opinions on ST are quite divided :p.
The next few days will show whether this is a correction (i.e. May was a point of inflection) or a turning point (May was a local maximum).

That's my view, anyway.

[darksentinel]

Yes, as you say..everyone has their own opinions and methods...personally I'd like to see a little more research into the "divination" system. There must be some companies doing research on time travel out there? Just loved the De Lorean in Back to the Future.

I'm sure with a bit of research you can find a few dozen companies on the internet who will promise you just that - pay them a small amount for their guaranteed 400%/annum return! They never do tell you why they need to sell a system that lays golden ostrich eggs, but we can safely assume it's out of the goodness
of their generous, non-materialistic hearts. Like those people buying gold in malls.

[BIRMANBOY]

But that would involve learning something new...woof..woof new dog ...tricks. As a founding student at the K.I.S.S. academy of share traders. I follow the wave theory if SP goes up and down in a sequential pattern over a number of years..all I need to know is buy in the trough and sell at the crest. (plus or minus and simplified for dramatic emphasis!!). Number crunching definitely is not my forte. It seems like its not a pre-requisite to know anything about a company. There is profits to be had in every company with share trading ...just a question of finding the right conditions and point in time. I do take your point however...dumb luck can only take you so far so I promise to bone up on some basic stuff for when my luck runs its course!! Thanks.
The charts strategy alone does not concern itself with the workings of the company. The focus is share price activity, which reflects relevant external factors.
It's one method to avoid having to deal with intricate financial reports, and number fudging :).

If you aren't aware of them, I'd suggest looking up the definitions and differences between fundamental and technical analysis, to provide both a starting point and a frame of reference.

[arcticblue]

So should we all be tightening our stops and selling anything not performing, Mr P?

[Phaedrus]

We are still in limbo to a certain extent, AB, in that 3 of my featured indicators have triggered and 3 have not. Nevertheless this is a time for caution in my opinion. Everyone has their own ideas on how to react to a weakening market - devout contrarians see it as a buying opportunity for example! For me, it is a time for profit-taking, tightening stops, exiting weak stocks and building up cash reserves.
I do not believe there is cause for any real concern as yet. The underlying uptrend is still intact and the Index is above its confirmed trendline and above the 200 day moving average.

[trackers]

Hi guys,

Well if you don't know already, Phaedrus has taken a (hopefully not permanent) extended leave from trading and forums, as per: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8470-Pharewell-Phrom-Phaedrus - So go share your thanks and support if you want to

Over the last couple years he's very generously given plenty of info to me and others on how the MSI is derived, and tips on how to recreate it.. And I've come up with something thats a work in progress but is close-ish.

Phaedrus uses 5 indicators to derive the MSI: M.Ave, RSI, RMI, Stoch and DMI - He then performs individual equations for each indicator: +1 if the indicator says buy, -1 if it says sell, repeated using ALL time periods. He then sums up all the results and divides by the number of equations = bam, MSI.

Metastock doesn't have capability for looping or iterators, so I've only managed to do 10 time periods per indicator using different time periods, as opposed to Phaedrus' all (think he's calling an external dll to get it done)... I'm going 5,10,20..100, so this one could be more responsive (for better or worse) if P was using indicators longer than that.

My color coding of the bars is also a work in progress, it is surprisingly complex (depending on what the value was doing the day before and how highly its prioritised).. But I'm getting there and its workable at the moment.

I'm 99.9% sure P has absolutely no problem with me posting this copy so I'll continue to do so every now and again and try to keep improving it - I'm not trying to take over from him as my TA skills wouldn't be 1/10th of his, but I figure he's giving us a pretty good indicator so we might as well use it and keep it alive.

I'm doing this mainly for ASX, but happy to do the NZX as well... Just providing the chart, make of it what you will - Hopefully I'll keep improving and it will an exact replica soon enough (rather than just very close).

http://iforce.co.nz/i/ejs0gy34.yna.jpg

[Footsie]

thanks trackers well done.

[percy]

trackers. Looks pretty good.Thanks for taking the trouble.

[darksentinel]

appreciate the time and effort, trackers.

[Financially dependant]

Thanks phrom me too trackers....

[moimoi]

Thanks for taking up the baton Trackers!! :-)

[trackers]

No worries guys :D

I've changed to bars, and updated for today

http://iforce.co.nz/i/o43t4vht.url.jpg

[arcticblue]

Slightly off topic but Trackers can I ask how you got Metastock to display different colours on the chart depending on how strong the MSI is?
And is the bottom ticker Bearish/Bullish just displaying the top chart in a different format?

Thanks,
Arctic

PS Thanks for keeping the MSI going and hopefully we haven't lost P forever.

[trackers]

I created a new Expert Advisor to make the bottom ribbon and used the Highlights function to color the charts (10 different formulas to paint different colors based on what zone its in and whether a crossover has occurred (and in which direction)).... You can also use expert advisor to throw up different alerts, sounds, emails; when certain conditions are met upon a chart being opened

[arcticblue]

Thanks, I'll have a read up on this advisor.

[trackers]

Update.. Will resistance become support? Waiting for a clear break either way would probably be prudent...

Click on pic to zoom

Think I've finally fixed the color coding too

3468

[arcticblue]

It's looking like P's timing is impeccable, stopping just before we start the slide.
Trackers: flicked you a PM, not sure if you actually check your messages here though.

[lou]

I think we will see a downtrend until the US debt ceiling is lifted. But that won't happen until the day before they have to.

[percy]

Closed today bang on the 200 MA ... Fun times for bears :)

This old bull was running scared,however, I may have another happy day in the green pastures as the US was well up overnight and NZ should have an up day today.

[Billy Boy]

Anyone expecting a massive rally once the US sorts out its debt ceiling issue? Deadline is Aug 2.

But depends on how the cards are played...
If they lift it totally, we will see quite a rise and quickly
if the Repub's get their way... Uncertainty again, until after the election.
Then then comes another bunch of questions.
They propbably will do it piece meal I think, that way they can leave the plite to the people.
There again..... dont rule out a "forced or managed DEFAULT... in the short term. (kick the can)
It may, just may have some politicial brownie points for the Repub's.

I hope to God they dont default. But I am cash up just in case.
BB
P.S. "what ever"..... Amen !!!

[BIRMANBOY]

Of course they wont default. This is just the normal game playing by the opposition to garnish some political "favours". At the last minute there will be a "reluctant" cave in for the "good of the country". All very predictable and happens regularly. They are in so deep there is no other option but to raise debt ceiling. I dont see a sustained rally since most investors know what will happen. May be a short rally then back to normal. (IMHO)!!
But depends on how the cards are played...
If they lift it totally, we will see quite a rise and quickly
if the Repub's get their way... Uncertainty again, until after the election.
Then then comes another bunch of questions.
They propbably will do it piece meal I think, that way they can leave the plite to the people.
There again..... dont rule out a "forced or managed DEFAULT... in the short term. (kick the can)
It may, just may have some politicial brownie points for the Repub's.

I hope to God they dont default. But I am cash up just in case.
BB
P.S. "what ever"..... Amen !!!

[Billy Boy]

Yes there will be a "cave in", I'm about 95% sure of that.
But the Q. still remains, what sort of "cave in", what shape will it take.
And back to Belg's question. what gonna happen after Aug 2.
How are the markets going to react running up too... and after ???
How have posters here positioning themselves right now.
BB

[Billy Boy]

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/54577/90-seconds-9-am-bnz-nz-hits-874-usc-overnight-investors-eye-new-safe-havens-nz-and-c-case
BB

[Hoop]

If USA gets a rating drop it will lose its elite AAA ranking held presently by 16 Countries in the world and drop down to AA+ to join NZ.....The world will end!!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_credit_rating

[Hoop]

Oddly, for all the boo-har around the US situation, US debt markets seem pretty unaffected with bond yeilds having barely moved.

The NZ50 will probably hit its 200 day moving average today. A pretty safe time to pile into beaten down stocks IMHO.

Some annoucement from the US this morning our time too.

Be there or be square. Tally-ho.

Announcement delayed (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-pushes-back-debt-limit-vote-2011-07-28-180410?dist=afterbell)...surprise surprise
like all good soap operas

Goverment start defaulting after 2 Aug so I suggest they should start with defaulting Public servant salaries first with top down priority, starting with the President then Senators then Govt officials.....

[CJ]

Announcement delayed (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-pushes-back-debt-limit-vote-2011-07-28-180410?dist=afterbell)...surprise surprise
like all good soap operas

Goverment start defaulting after 2 Aug so I suggest they should start with defaulting Public servant salaries first with top down priority, starting with the President then Senators then Govt officials.....Most policians in America dont need the salary from the public sector to survive as they get more than enough money from lobbiests.

[janner]

Belg..

As an elder person..

The word Tallyho !!.. Was only used with the another word.. Pounce !!..

Would you care to mention your target ??..

[janner]

Belgarion says..

Nervous times but probably not for much later.

Agree..

The nervous time will be late 2012.. Early 2013..

What Party is in control.... Who is POTUS ??...

Thus .. Just enough time to get in :-)) And get out :-)))))..

IMHO..

[Stranger_Danger]

Yeah, who cares about ratings agencies. Buffett rates USA as "quadruple A", which is all that matters.

[craic]

Now we know where the top was - for those of us who are cashed up - who is game enough to predict the bottom? I feel that the European mess will continue to plague the markets in the short term. I believe NZ's position is very strong as a primary producer but lets not kid ourselves - most of our investment in the markets depends on overseas money and if that's not there, the numbers keep going down. I have no Idea where the bottom is but I am prepared to wait.

[Lizard]

Next Tuesday, with a low of 2837 :eek2::D:p

[777]

Come on Lizard. What time?

[whirly]

...next week 2840ish. And then ranging 2800-3000 til last week of October when we start climbing again.

Man who picks bottoms gets smelly finger!:D

[Hoop]

...next week 2840ish. And then ranging 2800-3000 til last week of October when we start climbing again.

Man who picks bottoms gets smelly finger!:D

sniff sniff...I was wondering what that smell was coming from my keyboard ....

[Lizard]

Come on Lizard. What time?

10:47am of course. :)

Though I reserve the right to remain flexible.

(Smells like jasmine to me)

[Hoop]

Mark Weldon live chat started 12.15pm
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10743939

[Billy Boy]

Some of the tiny trades going through is very saddening. Look at PPL - 22 trades for just $74k.
Very saddening indeed belg....
Not only in PPL. If those folk could, then maybe they should do some homework.
NZ company's in general are in very good shape right now and the divvy ar4e looking good
BB
Ps when talking to a friend....
Me " how did you get on the the 87 crash"
Him " never lost a penny, Coz I never sold a share, coz I did my homework"

[Major von Tempsky]

The fall of the NZ $ is the major piece of good news coming out this "crisis" and is the necessary requirement for the NZ economy to get its growth rate up towrds 6% to 9%.
Long may it fall.

On the other hand, the NZ $ being as high as it is, is the main obstacle to Alan Bollard increasing interest rates.

And congratulations to Paula Bennett weeding out so many unemployment fraudsters after 1 year - under Labour they'd still be happily ripping us off!

[craic]

Sorry folks but the dollar is back up with the market. Got out of TEL at 262 and back in with great difficulty this morning at 250. Does anyone know the dates of the next dividend? I thought they were to go back to half-yearly from quarterly dividends. bought a few SKC to try and make a few bob out of the nervous gambler who will be around at the world cup.

[Hoop]

The inmates were let out of their asylum again last night so the NZ$ is down again today as the money flees back to the bottomless pit in the USA...(???).
There's a feel of common sense in the NZ market today even though it is down....

Markets calming down?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Stranger Danger I still have some shares that I bought before the 1987 share market crash

[Blendy]

well done, i've been following your adventures with glee! I've been doing a bit of the same, but not on the scale that I would have preferred....

[craic]

this was more than I can cope with. Sold out at the top then jumped in at what I thought was the bottom only to find that it wasn't, then off to sulk and plant a few trees on the hill. Back for dinner and the news that we are up again. The numbers tell me that I am up 0.3%. on the price I paid to buy back in. Latest bottle of rum is part Queensland Gold, part Jamaican and part rum barrel chips soaked in ethanol for a few months. It's up well more than 0.3%.

[percy]

this was more than I can cope with. Sold out at the top then jumped in at what I thought was the bottom only to find that it wasn't, then off to sulk and plant a few trees on the hill. Back for dinner and the news that we are up again. The numbers tell me that I am up 0.3%. on the price I paid to buy back in. Latest bottle of rum is part Queensland Gold, part Jamaican and part rum barrel chips soaked in ethanol for a few months. It's up well more than 0.3%.
Do you run the chainsaw on it,or is it just fuel for the axeman?

[pierre]

SKC & FRE - both with good result and increased divvy.

[craic]

Hope you are right about SKC. Bought a couple of thousand yesterday partly because they are one of the top five in my picking equation and partly because of the fact that when I last sold out of them a couple of years ago, I missed a bundle of sixty odd shares and I honestly did not know how to dispose of them. Anyone else have a simple answer to what to do with a handful of shares too small to trade?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Craic you just did It, Buy an econimic amount & add your odd ones when you sell

[Marilyn Munroe]

Anyone else have a simple answer to what to do with a handful of shares too small to trade?

In Australia they have a facility for you to donate small parcels of shares to charity without inuring brokerage. I am not aware of any equivalent in New Zealand.

http://www.sharegiftaustralia.org.au


Boop boop de do

Marilyn

[scamper]

Craic, I had 247 TEN shares and out of the blue (by snail mail) was made an offer by an outfit called Zero Commission.
It worked out better than online selling, and infinitely better than through a broker...

Are you expecting SKC to rise cos of bored RWC visitors? How long would you expect to hold...
Cheers.

[percy]

scamper/craic,
The SKC presentation 8th August is an excellent read.Go to NZX web page and bring up the pdf.Sorry I do not know how to do the link.The capital expenditure should produce good both short term and long term profits.The conventition centre right next door is going to be very positive.management's long term plans will add good growth . I am most impressed with management.

[777]

Hope you are right about SKC. Bought a couple of thousand yesterday partly because they are one of the top five in my picking equation and partly because of the fact that when I last sold out of them a couple of years ago, I missed a bundle of sixty odd shares and I honestly did not know how to dispose of them. Anyone else have a simple answer to what to do with a handful of shares too small to trade?

Offer them for sale on here. Simple transfer of funds and file an off market share transfer.

[troyvdh]

....thats pretty unique...in fact I find it quite gobsmacking unique....you make it sound simple ....but I think you are onto something...here....selling/buying amongest a "trusting closed community"....scary to....mmmmmm

[pierre]

Not too bad a result from FRE and future prospects look OK too. The market's not ovely impressed though - SP down 1c.

I forecast an increased divvy but was hoping for a bit more than .25% - still it's better than nothing.

Now waiting for positive results from SKC and SKT.

[Hoop]

Sometimes it pays to keep it simple....just to see what is really happening....It seems the fundamentals are good but the large increased "perceived" future risk has damaged the technicals to the point that it has caused a cyclic change.

Did any of you realise that the NZX50 is sitting on a technical support ledge overlooking a cliff face on Friday.
Many were oblivious to that fact as it was not in the media and were distracted with good the good fundamentals ... MHI TEL TUA results etc.

Global markets were down overnight so Monday is not looking too good for the NZX50.

There is a good chance a dead cat bounce is in progress of being formed ..if this remains true expect the downward last formation phase to complete with the break of the 3095 panic bottom support.

ERROR ON CHART.. The NZX50 closed at 3268 on Friday NOT 3236 .....it dropped to 3236 intraday Friday. ...So it not on a edge of a cliff..if it loses another 1% it will be (edit 10,55am Monday 22nd August

Disc: Now over 80% cash

Phaedrus MSI...When RED strictly no buying..

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/r7k67xab8pdr731duwts.png

[arcticblue]

Thanks for the chart hoop. It isn't looking good at the moment and the chart makes it easy to see.

[elZorro]

Yes, nice chart Hoop. If anyone does need cheering up, try a little GEL (NZAX), there's a share that is pointing in the right direction, with the guarantee of a nice press release at the end of the week, strongly increasing interest on the TSX for a safety measure.

[Hoop]

Apologies guys ...I discovered an error on my chart...I've alerted it by editing my charted post a moment ago.

ERROR ON CHART.. The NZX50 closed at 3268 on Friday NOT 3236

[Hoop]

The NZX50 has reached a technical point this morning. It retested the 3330//3335 resistance area and its first attempt this morning has failed.

The simple chart shows the rebound (Dead cat bounce??) pause in the steep fall (minicrash) which is overall bearish.
There is conjunction of the down trend line and the 3333 resistance level in the near future... extra buying pressure will be needed to rise above this combined impediment.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/x9fhtzyl5t24bjc13shs.png

[Aaron]

There's some great yielding stocks on the NZX at present. Fundimentals can't be ignored forever :)

If you don't mind me asking.

Which companies are you refering to.

[Aaron]

Thanks. I could probably look at the herald each day as well.
I was more after the views of an experienced investor/trader who has done his own research and is prepared to state at what price he would personally value those high yielding shares.
Particularly in light of the current state of the world financial markets With falling sharemarkets some of those yields may improve over the next few months due to price changes.

[Hoop]

A small glow worm in a dark Global Equity Cavern....
.... Caution....wait and see
Disc 80% cash..... half of it is in US$


http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/g3a0mbo4qnsj06mmunw6.png

[winner69]

Disc 80% cash..... half of it is in US$
[/IMG]

That seems a big punt for a conservative sort of guy like you Hoop

[percy]

Do not know where the index is going,but I know the lovely increased divies are going into my bank.Last night POT,EBO and NPX.

[Financially dependant]

Positive signs for NZ50....

3641

[winner69]

Belg

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkgGHqbhjs4


Investopedia says after heavy selling and sharp decline in price (panic selling and moving into a safer haven) ... I say total capitulation is when the last punter left standing decides equities are a waste of time and sells up --- (to real investors) ---- this a long drawn out process and is usually seen when the market PE is down to 5-7

Hoops real definition will possibly be like this

[Jess9]

Is Phaedrus posting again? I miss P's input.

[gonzo56]

Is Phaedrus posting again? I miss P's input.

See: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8470-Pharewell-Phrom-Phaedrus&highlight=Phaedrus

[Jess9]

See: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8470-Pharewell-Phrom-Phaedrus&highlight=Phaedrus

Thanks, hoped it had just been see ya later. P should take some of that time and write a book for numskulls like me. Its almost selfish not to continue to share his knowledge, skill , judgement and wit.

[JPW]

Thanks, hoped it had just been see ya later. P should take some of that time and write a book for numskulls like me. Its almost selfish not to continue to share his knowledge, skill , judgement and wit.

I think the information he has provided over the years could quite easily fill a book or two.

[bull....]

things are not looking good looks like the cap index wants to test the triple bottom. i think its only a matter of time before the arse litterally falls out of this market bit like a direa big gush to the downside probably just before xmas ?

[ValueNZ]

things are not looking good looks like the cap index wants to test the triple bottom. i think its only a matter of time before the arse litterally falls out of this market bit like a direa big gush to the downside probably just before xmas ?
It's a far better time for investing in the nzx50 than say late 2020 and 2021, especially if you account for inflation. No clue what is going to happen in the following couple years in the index though.

[alokdhir]

things are not looking good looks like the cap index wants to test the triple bottom. i think its only a matter of time before the arse litterally falls out of this market bit like a direa big gush to the downside probably just before xmas ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mark-lister-why-so-gloomy-its-not-so-bad-out-there/CFDH7ZE6AJHFPJBC5VP6DUULTE/

Looks like he reads your posts ...directly answering your bearish thoughts ...:p

[Daytr]

things are not looking good looks like the cap index wants to test the triple bottom. i think its only a matter of time before the arse litterally falls out of this market bit like a direa big gush to the downside probably just before xmas ?

As I have mentioned previously. Some of the biggest stockmarket crashes have happened in October. 1929, 1987, 2008.... 2023 ?

[Daytr]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mark-lister-why-so-gloomy-its-not-so-bad-out-there/CFDH7ZE6AJHFPJBC5VP6DUULTE/

Looks like he reads your posts ...directly answering your bearish thoughts ...:p

When have you ever seen an equity investment manager say, now is not a good time for equities?
Or even better now is a time to sell?
They don't get paid to manage cash.

[Toddy]

I agree. There are so many well managed and positioned for growth NZ Companies out there. The fund managers are just waiting for the buy signal from the big boss.

Alot of the pull back in the index is more to do with the previous hype and overvalued asset classes.

Property stocks, fast food companies, outrageous PE ratios from our largest companys FPH, Atm etc. Throw in the odd mismanaged company like FBU.

Overlay with the current Market risk and we end up where we are now.

I don't think it's blood in the streets. I think it's more like the hospital filling up with overweight patients from feasting and drinking too much.

The good times will be back.

[alokdhir]

When have you ever seen an equity investment manager say, now is not a good time for equities?
Or even better now is a time to sell?
They don't get paid to manage cash.

To be fair to equity managers ...I did not see here also any expert / Guru advising anyone about over valued or over hyped markets even when funds like KFL were trading at 22 cents PREMIUM to NAV ...

So I dont expect them to say otherwise now also when they are more close to bottom then TOP

I dont really understand what is bearish callers views ...Are they trying to pick bottoms ? Or they trying to warn of 20-40% drop ahead or they just trying to scare people not to INVEST at this time .

TBH what u think this market will go to honestly ...25% down ? If thats the case then its worth getting out or wait for further INVESTMENTS but if u not sure or just maybe 5-10% types then making bearish calls at current levels dont make sense for investments ...trading maybe ...I know U and Bull are traders but not all are traders ...some still actually do investment for next 5-10 years ahead ...to them will it make much difference if they get in now or not ...Mark Lister is a highly respectable market analyst and people including me have lot of faith and belief in his views ...he has pretty unbiased views and explains nicely in simple language pros and cons of investing at any particular time .

[Daytr]

To be fair to equity managers ...I did not see here also any expert / Guru advising anyone about over valued or over hyped markets even when funds like KFL were trading at 22 cents PREMIUM to NAV ...

So I dont expect them to say otherwise now also when they are more close to bottom then TOP

I dont really understand what is bearish callers views ...Are they trying to pick bottoms ? Or they trying to warn of 20-40% drop ahead or they just trying to scare people not to INVEST at this time .

TBH what u think this market will go to honestly ...25% down ? If thats the case then its worth getting out or wait for further INVESTMENTS but if u not sure or just maybe 5-10% types then making bearish calls at current levels dont make sense for investments ...trading maybe ...I know U and Bull are traders but not all are traders ...some still actually do investment for next 5-10 years ahead ...to them will it make much difference if they get in now or not ...Mark Lister is a highly respectable market analyst and people including me have lot of faith and belief in his views ...he has pretty unbiased views and explains nicely in simple language pros and cons of investing at any particular time .

He is hardly unbiased.
I haven't said anything in regards direction of markets, I am just saying I tend to treat fund managers views on markets with a pinch of salt. Individual stocks is different and some analysts are very good at identifying value.

If you are constantly fully invested, how do you take advantage of market sell offs? Or you just don't I suppose.

But yep I understand most people are longer term investors so they have a different approach.

[ValueNZ]

When have you ever seen an equity investment manager say, now is not a good time for equities?
Or even better now is a time to sell?
They don't get paid to manage cash.
Yeah agreed.

If you are constantly fully invested, how do you take advantage of market sell offs? Or you just don't I suppose.
Better yet how do you meaningfully predict a market sell off in a statistically significant way?

[strikereureka]

Expecting a bounce after Oct 2023 & another one mid-2024 when the rate cuts start - that's the extent of my timing the market skills.

Mostly fully invested on the NZSX50 via KS/Kernel etc.

[Azz]

If you are constantly fully invested, how do you take advantage of market sell offs? Or you just don't I suppose.

If you're asleep when the international markets are open, how do you day trade them?

[Valuegrowth]

Markets are overvalued. I looked at long term chart and the index is sitting on the top of the long-term chart. I would be happy if the index is position around the middle of the long-term chart. Intelligent investors will separate attractive individual stocks from the broader market. Time to avoid highly leveraged companies. Why do we go behind high debt companies if we can find out strong balance sheet companies.

[bull....]

US 10yr racing higher today , guess that flow to NZ today and also guessing more mtge hikes coming because of this :scared:

[Daytr]

Better yet how do you meaningfully predict a market sell off in a statistically significant way?[/QUOTE]

Fundamentals & charts, the same way you pick the entry level into a stock.
Not saying I will always get it right of course, again a bit like entry level into a stock.

[ronaldson]

Post deleted.

[thebusinessman]

Markets are overvalued. I looked at long term chart and the index is sitting on the top of the long-term chart. I would be happy if the index is position around the middle of the long-term chart. Intelligent investors will separate attractive individual stocks from the broader market. Time to avoid highly leveraged companies. Why do we go behind high debt companies if we can find out strong balance sheet companies.

What time period do you look at for "long term"? 10 years?

[Valuegrowth]

I looked at both 10 years and 20 years. Corrections or pull backs which had in 2020 and 2022 were minor ones.


What time period do you look at for "long term"? 10 years?

[thebusinessman]

I looked at both 10 years and 20 years. Corrections or pull backs which had in 2020 and 2022 were minor ones.

Interesting, every so often I look at the capital index trendline and we seem to be tracking more than a standard deviation under at the moment. Thoughts on how what you look at may differ?

[winner69]

nZX50 be below 11,000 next week

[Valuegrowth]

Few stocks can do it. Anyway we didn't see meaninful pull back or bear market yet after the longest bull market.
nZX50 be below 11,000 next week

[bull....]

things are not looking good looks like the cap index wants to test the triple bottom. i think its only a matter of time before the arse litterally falls out of this market bit like a direa big gush to the downside probably just before xmas ?

just about testing the triple bottom 1% odd fall from here would do it .... then will it plunge or bounce ?

[SailorRob]

just about testing the triple bottom 1% odd fall from here would do it .... then will it plunge or bounce ?

Sextuple bottom with full bollinger capitulation is the best signal, from there can go up or down. Adding the idiosyncratic volume will give more accuracy.

[Valuegrowth]

End of the longest bull market is fast approaching, though still it has legs.

[bull....]

its breaking down below the triple bottom :scared: covid lows here we come

[WayOverTheHill]

Yes if it doesnt pull up soon we will be in bargain territory.



14806

[SailorRob]

Yes if it doesnt pull up soon we will be in bargain territory.



14806

Wrong chart, look at the NZ50C.

Pretty sure the one you posted will mirror the 50G which is a compound index so doesn't tell you the real picture.

[WayOverTheHill]

And Here is the Capital Index for comparison

14807

[winner69]

In the market reports - ‘Even though the market has fallen sharply in recent months, analysis from brokers Forsyth Barr showed the 12-month forward weighted price-earnings ratio for the NZ market is currently 20.4 times, or 13% above the long-run average.’

Jeez a forward looking PE of 20.4 is pretty high

[bull....]

And Here is the Capital Index for comparison

14807

im looking at your 3840 covid lows