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Phaedrus
10-08-2007, 09:48 PM
I use the NZSX50 Index to regulate my exposure to the NZ sharemarket. So long as all of the indicators shown on the chart below are positive, I have 100% of my NZ capital invested. Every now and then there is a retracement of sufficient magnitude to trigger the "medium-term" indicators. To me this signals a time for caution, during which all stops are tightened, all Sell signals must be acted on, and buying is prohibited. There have been 4 of these periods over the 5 year Bull market. You can see that each of these has stopped short of breaching the "long-term" indicators. No-one knows how low the current retracement will go or how long it will run for, but right now, it is no more severe than any of the others.
The rationale behind this system is that any serious major correction will be preceded by a period of weakness. There is plenty of time to exit the market in an orderly fashion so long as you monitor the situation carefully. The idea is that if you pass the parcel every time the music slows down, you will not be the patsy left holding if/when the music stops. I view it as a compulsory insurance policy! Currently, this approach has me 55% cashed up in NZ and 75% cashed up in Australia. My plan is to go to 100% cash should the current weakness extend below the long-term indicators. These have not been broken in 5 years. If this market tanks, I am NOT going with it.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX100807.gif

Lizard
10-08-2007, 10:07 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. I was just wishing you'd post that chart again! It stuck in my mind from the old "when does the dream run end?" thread. I had been trying to draw comparable charts on Yahoo Beta charts and only getting half the indicators.

I think this chart and the "tighten-stops-no-buying" method is probably the most valuable idea I have come across on share forums.

Do you have a similar chart for the ASX?

ratkin
11-08-2007, 05:05 AM
To offer a different view , those areas of caution have provided all the best buying opportunities during the bull market. No doubt the falls were all overdone due to traders stopping out , providing good buying times for long term investors.

Also , if the market does crash , i mean really crash then it is very likely to be very sudden and led by the US. One day we may wake up to see the dow has plunged 1000 points or more , unlikely but could happen. In this scenario then you would go down with the market , our market would open so low that you would take a very big hit.

Rather than be bound up in this mechanical process of yours i prefer to look at what is actually causing all this turmoil and using that information to take advantage of the mass selling to pick up stocks being unfairly bashed.

For example under your system you would treat a stock exposed to sub prime troubles exactly the same as you would treat a supermarket or utility stock. You wouldnt buy any of them .
With your methods now so widespread this creates big bargains in quality stocks that have no real reason to fall.

One day of course you may be right , the world may cave in, stocks may fall 50% and many companies could go to the wall . Way i look at it is if this happens we all in trouble anyway . Whose to say your banks wouldnt collapse taking your cash with them ?
Look at what happened to access brokerage a while back, and bridgecorp.

To sum up i prefer to be brave and force myself to buy when times get ugly, its not easy , human nature means we naturally want to do the same as everyone else , to seek reasurance in numbers etc, its tough going against the flow .
Scary , yes it is , but rightly or wrongly if i shall be commiting a few percent of my funds on monday , and if the market falls again tuesday then i will buy more.

Im sure that if you only ever bought shares when the mainstream tv news started their bulletin with a stockmarket crash story you would be well ahead of the game. If you sold instead then you would be well behind

Halebop
11-08-2007, 07:57 AM
Ratkin the challenge with your alternative approach of picking shares that have been "unfairly bashed" is sometimes they get bashed for months or years. The buying opportunities are most easily able to be spotted after the event, not during. This is why charts can work more often than not rather than being their weak point.

KiwiBear
11-08-2007, 10:15 AM
Halebop agree with you 100%. As Non educated investor straight after the 87 crash I waited till the rise in price of Brierly and Jones to put my hard earned cash into. Only to find that it quickly reversed and continued down.(Dead cat bounce)
My first leason taught me the hard way- it then slowly wents sideways with Jones later disappearing.

KiwiBear
11-08-2007, 10:21 AM
Here's an email alert that David Elliott sent me yesterday morning (Thursday, August 9th). To see how 'good' David really is at market timing... just look at the dive on the Dow yesterday.

Down -387 points! And he called it pre-market.

"Yesterday the DJ-30 hit a horizontal trend line high from the June and early July charts, it is, so far, a market cap on a failed retest from below.

The DJ-30 failed the "Trendline cap" yesterday, one we have discussed over the last 2 months both on the July rally and now the market drop.

Currently we have the good makings of a "Head and Shoulders" chart down move with that "CAP" trendline being the right shoulder high.

The failure of the DJ-30 50 sma and 20 sma today would confirm the continued down trend we started last month. It would also be an IHF ( Ice hole failure) for the DJ and suggest new lows for the market in the coming days and weeks.

Confirmation would be a close below the 13,450 and negative follow thru for the markets on Friday.
ADX has not confirmed this last 3 day rally as anything more than a bounce in a bear move.
And the 2 day charts suggest a "Snap Back" down to a new market low.

DJ-30 13,264 break would then suggest a move to 13,000 level and possibly lower.

The times are US remember a day behind us

Lizard
11-08-2007, 09:10 PM
On the same indicators as the NZX chart, has the Dow actually triggered a caution zone yet? Not clear to me that it has - but I can't get such nice charts as Phaedrus.

Maybe those who can accumulate new capital from other sources can ride out a bear market. But for anyone who relies on investment income and/or does not add to their capital from other sources, then an "insurance" system such as Phaedrus' seems like an essential strategy.

When the bear has eaten 60% of capital and another 5-10% went into topping up income, then it's a long road to recovery during a period of average market returns.

Phaedrus
13-08-2007, 11:19 AM
To offer a different view, those areas of caution have provided all the best buying opportunities during the bull market........ Scary, yes it is, but rightly or wrongly i shall be commiting a few percent of my funds on monday, and if the market falls again tuesday then i will buy more.
The "overview" approach as posted here grew from my experiences of the 1987 crash. My trend-following system had worked superbly on individual stocks that I held, getting me out of each shortly after they peaked and before I gave too much profit back to the market. Totally ignoring the very significant fact that most all of the stocks I held had triggered Sell signals in a fairly short space of time, and flushed with success, I proceeded to scoop up the "bargains" that were being presented to me as the market dropped. The more the market dropped, the more I bought. This approach kept me fully invested. At the time, I saw this as evidence of my bravery, my staunchness, my independent thought. I was a contrarian and proud of it. Trouble was, the market kept dropping. The rate of fall accelerated, ending with a major retracement. A crash. I was, of course, fully invested. It took me more than 2 years to recover my losses. This was actually quite good going - a close friend took over 5 years. As bad as my losses were, the worst aspect of all this was that after the market had plunged and had begun to recover, I had no cash to take advantage of the situation. This Index based "overview" is designed to stop that happening to me again.

Also, if the market does crash, i mean really crash then it is very likely to be very sudden.
I disagree. While it might culminate in a big single drop, such things do NOT come totally out of the blue. Any major retracement begins with some initial weakness. Look again at the chart. See how drops of greater than 5% are relatively uncommon - only 4 times in 5 years. A drop of >5%, then, is clearly of some significance. Notice also that whenever the market dropped through the 5% level, it continued down and remained depressed for months. Notice how over the last 5 years there has never been a drop greater than 10%. I would therefore regard the market dropping more than 10% as a very significant event. There is plenty of warning there for those that look.

One day of course you may be right, the world may cave in, stocks may fall 50% and many companies could go to the wall . Way i look at it is if this happens we all in trouble anyway.
Not everyone! Those that exited the market when it initially showed clear weakness would be laughing all the way to the bank. At such times, cash is King.

To sum up i prefer to be brave and force myself to buy when times get ugly, its not easy, human nature means we naturally want to do the same as everyone else, to seek reasurance in numbers etc, its tough going against the flow.
The tragic irony of that statement Ratkin is that if this retracement does continue on down, you will be "going with the flow" - down the tube with everyone else!

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Santayana.

ratkin
13-08-2007, 02:33 PM
I see where you are coming from , difference is i am never 100% invested in stocks , yes i will be buying more as the market falls (already have been ) not buying anything i percieve as risky however. If the market does crash totally then yes to some extent i will go down with the ship , but will still be well enough off that if i had to wait a couple of years to recoup my stock losses then it wouldnt be a total disaster.
Meanwhile people will still be buying food from supermarkets , farming the land , providing electricity etc etc.

So rather than pull out in these times i prefer to exit the likes of sealegs and companies with large debts etc and pick up more bulletproof stocks , then if the market rebounds (as it usually does ) then i have picked up bargains , or if it does crash then worse case scenario is a wait to recover loses .

The people who need to worry are those investing with borrowed money , or having too many shares before they have paid their morgage etc etc.

Stranger_Danger
13-08-2007, 05:43 PM
Gosh, Phaedrus was around for the '87 crash. Was anyone else?

That is what scares me about this market (worldwide I'm talking). Risk seems to be this thing one learns about in the library, in the history section. Even today there isn't a lot of fear. If you're a 29 year old fund manager and its all someone elses money, when you have you ever known _really_ bad times?

Hearing the talking heads on NZ and AU news talking about how the subprime issues in the US couldn't impact on us much makes me chortle. Almost like because we don't tend to use the term "subprime" we are unexposed to the long term consequences of lending too much money to morons to allow them to buy symbols of their idiocy.

I know of two people - both with decent incomes, large debts and no assets - who have recently been pre approved for large mortgages of the "100%" or close to variety.

Neither have bought houses yet. Why? Because despite being offered way too much money, despite the fact I can't see for the life of me see why anyone with two brain cells would give it to them nor how they'll pay it back over a full cycle, they can't find a house to their standards for that amount of money.

I see two issues there, not just one. Does anyone else?

Disc : Largely cashed up, various currency, no USD.

living2
14-08-2007, 05:18 AM
IMHO Phaedrus and Ratkin both make good points.Phaedrus doesn't there need to be an overlay of common sense in chartist decisions?I see in USA JB were funds using computing buy/sell programes have just lost 30% of their value.
Disclaimer:I was around in 87 and lost 70% value in my equity portfolio in the likes of Equiticorp and IEP .BUT then made it all back in 2 years by buying' low risk' stocks

Lizard
14-08-2007, 06:55 AM
Out of interest, are you taking the 2 years recovery from October 1987 or from the low point in your portfolio? The former would seem extremely challenging from the data I have.

According to my data (using the NZ Herald Index) the NZ market had gone sideways for the 9 months prior to the crash, only just reaching the earlier Dec '86 high a few weeks prior. It then lost 60% of value in around 5 months, went sideways for about 18 months and had staged a brief rally to be 50% off its lows at the end of the 2 year period. The number of listed companies had shrunk by 20% over that period.

This brief rally was then quickly followed by another slump which appears to have taken another 50% off the index until the low in around Dec 1990 - around 70% lower than 4 years earlier in Dec 1986. By then, my data shows 142 listed companies - around half the number of October 1987.

Equiticorp failure didn't occur until January 1989 (although it was certainly easy to lose alot on it prior to that).

To recover from a 70% loss in 2 years would have taken gains of 82% pa. I'm not claiming you didn't achieve that - just that you seem to be making it sound far less fearsome than it was! I would think many investors would never have recovered from it at all without investing new funds back in the market.

living2
14-08-2007, 07:29 AM
LizardIt was from the low point of my portfolio.I was overseas during October till Jan 88.Because banks had share cert's as security over over my OD they wouldn't release certificates to sell shares till the OD was paid!!!I was unable to sort out the tangled web untill I got back in Jan.
My point is by buying in to Q stocks that had been oversold in the crash some serious money can be made.
BUT:I don't believe this market has been seriously oversold YET.Time will tell
My point about computer programmes.Overseas mega funds eg JB Were have lost lots of serious money over short time in the last couple of weeks.Their buy/sell decisions are all based on computer models that are based on the assumption markets are predictable ?

rimu
14-08-2007, 08:12 AM
so if i understand this correctly, if the black line goes through all 5 of the coloured lines, then you know the **** is hitting the fan?

foodee
14-08-2007, 08:19 AM
Living2

Agreed with most points except present situation - it is early days and not 'oversold' yet.
Phaedrus and Ratkin are actually talking about different phases; P at the beginning and R during and end of the phases.

'87 was damn near wiped out. I remembered Sir R on TV saying....this is awful! Took me a lot longer than 2 years to recover.

The modern market is contorted, complicated, confused and may be even
corrupted by so many factors, systems and products. What is happening is no more than a cleansing process - the quality fundamentals will prevail at the end and that is what will turn the market eventually.

cheers

montyj
15-08-2007, 10:38 AM
Phaedrus ... can you tell me if the Long-Term Exponential MA line from the chart posted on the 10th is still sitting around the 4000 mark for the NZSX50 Index ??. I'm trying to understand & educate myself about TA charting methods & like yourself would be extremely concerned if the index breached this long-term MA level. Thanks in advance.

limegreen
15-08-2007, 11:11 AM
Liz
Here's my take on the ASX. Still hanging in there.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/asx14aug07.gif

Monty J
I'm not sure exactly what period Phaedrus has in for his long term EMA, but I've plotted a 300 here, and it's sitting just below 4000.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/nzx14aug07.gif

Phaedrus
15-08-2007, 11:15 AM
Monty, right now the Index is at 4007, with the longterm ma at 3978.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSX50815.gif

montyj
15-08-2007, 11:25 AM
Thanx Limegreen/Phaedrus .... enjoy reading your posts !!.

Lizard
15-08-2007, 11:45 AM
Thanks Limegreen. Though from what I can figure from the freebie charts, the ASX200 slow stoch and RSI would have triggered a "caution" recently using the same period as above for NZX. Interestingly though, the Dow itself may still be sitting on the fence on those indicators.

limegreen
15-08-2007, 12:30 PM
Thanks Limegreen. Though from what I can figure from the freebie charts, the ASX200 slow stoch and RSI would have triggered a "caution" recently using the same period as above for NZX. Interestingly though, the Dow itself may still be sitting on the fence on those indicators.

Oh yes. The ASX is quite clearly in a caution period, it's pretty close to the long term indicators at the moment.

Phaedrus
15-08-2007, 02:27 PM
Liz, here is the Aus equivalent of the NZSX chart, as at 3.30 pm.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/AllOrds815.gif

ratkin
15-08-2007, 02:42 PM
next stop 5000

Hoop
15-08-2007, 04:36 PM
Uptrend not broken yet Ratkin.

Lizard
15-08-2007, 04:45 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. Today has been a shocker. Not so much in terms of the index, but in terms of some of the more illiquid small caps where forced sales have spiralled into "low bid" black hole. Plenty of stops triggered today... but do I REALLY have to sell when the bids are 30% lower and the results to prove I bought a winner are just around the corner?

I just looked at the index for the Asian crisis - NZ Herald Index I think it was - early 1997 till late 1998 went from around 2600 to around 1700. At the time it didn't matter to me much - I could just hoard more savings and ride it out. Now, I am 10 years, 3 children and minus one income older...

dumbass
15-08-2007, 05:56 PM
boring chart question phaedrus, i have metastock 9 how do you chart trailing stops?

Phaedrus
15-08-2007, 06:09 PM
A MetaStock formula for a very simple fixed percentage trailing stop is :-
HHV(C,xxx)*.9
where xxx is the look-back period and 0.9 is a 10% stop. 0.85 would give a 15% stop for example. Just set this up as a new indicator using the "Indicator Builder" function.

A technically superior trailing stop can be based on the stocks Average True Range. You can get all the info you need about ATR trailing stops at :- http://www.tradernexus.com/advanceds...ancedstop.html (http://www.tradernexus.com/advancedstop/advancedstop.html)

dumbass
15-08-2007, 06:42 PM
thanks p, i really appreciate your posts

Mick100
15-08-2007, 07:13 PM
Good charts pheadrus - thanks

Hoop
16-08-2007, 09:03 AM
Fall on Wall St last night, so the NZSX50 5 year uptrend line may be tested today.
What are the TA investors going to do today if that line is breached??

KJ
16-08-2007, 02:44 PM
Looking very similar to May 06 isn't it

It took 4 mths to fall 10% then-much faster this time & no end in sight.

Lizard
23-08-2007, 10:06 AM
Liz, here is the Aus equivalent of the NZSX chart, as at 3.30 pm.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/AllOrds815.gif

Hi Phaedrus,

Another question re these charts - it seems easy to see the markers for the beginning of a "caution" period at the time they are triggered. It looks less easy to see where the end of the "caution" period has occurred without a few days hindsight - after all, most of the oscillators cross the line at several points during the "caution" period and it only becomes obvious where the final crossing was a couple of days after it occurred. Any tips on how best to spot the end point in real-time? Thanks, Liz.

Phaedrus
23-08-2007, 11:46 AM
Liz, this will happen every time the Index goes sideways in a Caution period. You will notice that this has not happened at all with the NZSX50, which has dropped during each Caution period, or when the All Ords dropped (as in 2005).
If you find this too disconcerting, there are some things that you can do.
(1) Use longer time periods for the indicators.
(2) Smooth the indicators with a short-term moving average.
(3) Rather than taking a consensus approach, wait for all indicators to trigger before beginning or ending a Caution period.
For all that, I can see that I drew the end of the 2006 Caution period in the wrong place. It should have been around 5/9/06 rather than 25/9/06 as marked.
In practical terms, a strictly demarcated Caution zone is an over-simplification of the situation. The degree of caution with which I trade is influenced by the number of indicators that have triggered. It's not something that is only full on or full off - it is increased or decreased incrementally, as the individual indicators trigger.

Lizard
23-08-2007, 12:01 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. Yes, the indicators definitely give a clearer picture for the NZX. And, yes, it makes more sense if you move the caution line back for the 2006 period as you suggest.

The chart I am looking at for the ASX suggests it might be almost out of the caution zone using the limited oscillators I can see? Or would you want to see a confirmed uptrend?

NZX doesn't look close yet from my view.

Phaedrus
23-08-2007, 02:30 PM
Two of six indicators have risen above the caution threshold.
One more and I will move to 50% cash there.
Cautious old bugger eh?

ratkin
23-08-2007, 02:33 PM
All very well being cautious but you have missed most of the best buying and could be about to re enter the market as the rally runs out of steam.

Lizard
23-08-2007, 02:39 PM
Cautious old bugger eh?

:D
Better cautious than impulsive. Is "decisive" another alternative?

Phaedrus
23-08-2007, 04:12 PM
Ratkin, it seems to me that you blow hot and cold. For example, here are some of your recent comments :-

"p/e ratio of market still far too high , another 20% drop should see some fair pricing" (Market has gone up 6% since that post)

"next stop 5000" (when All Ords 5800, currently 6140)

"The market is going to take a while to recover from this type of beating.
Looks like the end of the bull market , the confidence has all dissapeared."

Your comments regarding the recent weakness of MBL were particularly hysterical ....."Could be another symptom of the end of the american empire, the rise of the Chinese will be unstoppable , the west is now in the same position as the roman empire just before its demise. Barbarians at the gates while debauchary and decadence consume the citizens. The genie is out of the bottle, no going back now, the west going to be hit on all fronts , religious , economic........" (MBL has risen more than 20% over the last few days).

In short, Ratkin, you are a candle in the wind.

As for my having "missed most of the best buying", what garbage! There are plenty of good stocks still heading down. What's the hurry?

ratkin
23-08-2007, 04:19 PM
your showing symptoms of stalking , particularly like the way you have taken my tongue in cheek comments about the end of the american empire out of context. Top work.

Dont know why you so touchy , easily wound up these days, becoming too easy

Jay
23-08-2007, 09:06 PM
Thanks Phaedrus for the charts.
Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Slow Stochastic Oscillator as opposed to the normal one. Is it just the periods in the %k are longer than normal. I have tried to read up about it but have not found the answer. Look like a separate formula maybe used?
I note you do not plot the %D indicator (moving average with it either - a bit redundant I suppose)
It does not seem to appear as a separate indicator on any of the formula sites I've checked.

Phaedrus
23-08-2007, 10:10 PM
Hi Jay. As you suspect, the Slow Stochastic that I use is just the ordinary formula, but simplified by 4 modifications :-
(1) %D moving average is not used as the trigger and is not plotted at all.
(2) A 50% crossover is used as the signal level, rather than the usual 20% and 80%.
(3) A much longer period is used for %K, in this case 80 days rather than the usual 5 days.
(4) Generally, smoothing (slowing) is not used.
These modifications mean that the oscillator can be used just like an ordinary trend-following indicator.
I got this idea from Colby and Meyers "Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators". They found that such a setup outperformed the original system as developed by George Lane.

Phaedrus
24-08-2007, 07:46 AM
I would be more interested in knowing WHAT you still hold on the NZX P
I have only one holding of any significant size - FBU.
Plus a few TPW, FPH and POT.

Placebo
24-08-2007, 07:49 AM
sorry, btw, wouldnt hold any rubbish on the NZX, although I have recommended SKLIZA as a buy at 25c recently. up the most % on nzx today

I, too, wouldn't hold any rubbish on the NZX. Hence, I only choose good NZX stocks ;)

Thanks for the regular updates Phaedrus. I thought the saying was `a week is a long time in politics'*, it seems the same is true in the market.

*I like the full quote better, 2nd half is often cut off: "A week is a long time in politics, but 3 years is too long in office".

duncan macgregor
24-08-2007, 08:07 AM
I have only one holding of any significant size - FBU.
Plus a few TPW, FPH and POT. PHAEDRUS, TUT TUT you should have been out of that lot with the exception of POT. What you need my man is a time line or stick to the hundred day moving average. only having you on i wont mention it to SNOOPY. Its to wet to go fishing, might as well kick the teacher up the butt for a laugh. Macdunk

Phaedrus
24-08-2007, 09:23 AM
Technically, FBU is still in a longterm uptrend, and is currently no weaker than it has been half a dozen or more times over the years. .......long-term holders of this stock have at times had to withstand drops of up to 25%, if they wished to continue holding. If this is more volatility than you are ready, willing or able to withstand, you have two alternatives. One is to get out of the sharemarket altogether. The other is to trade the stock. This would, of course, require a different set of indicators and a different mindset. The bottom line here being that if you are unable to beat "buying and holding" FBU, then you are wasting your time. ......TA got you into this stock over 6 years ago in early 2001 - and has kept you in ever since. It will continue to keep you in, so long as the uptrend continues.


Should be out of FBU, Dunc? You must be joking! I have held this superbly performing stock for nearly 7 years. Over that time, a $2 investment has grown to $12. Plus dividends, of course.

Should stick to a hundred day moving average, Dunc? What a laugh! Had I done so, I would currently be out of FBU, having had 37 trades since 1/1/2001. Of these, only 12 would have been profitable, with 25 losses. A $2 dollar investment in your recommended system would have grown to just $4.80. (Plus some divvies). As I said in the quote above if you are unable to beat "buying and holding" FBU, then you are wasting your time trying to trade it.

Your timeline would have had you out of FBU way back in 2001!

duncan macgregor
24-08-2007, 10:26 AM
PHAEDRUS, Only having you on, we all make mistakes me included, its how we move on that counts. You know what i have been up to this year so no need to go into that. I am just surprized that you would hold a couple of your stocks when sell signals have been so obvious with your methods. FPH has been a disaster this year so far why you would hold?. I understand that FBU has been on a long uptrend, and why when it gives out sell signals in the shorter term you would disregard them But FPH?. Anyway its good to know nobody has perfected the system to pick winners all the time. JEEZE you might have to be like me with a MACDUNK got it wrong thread. Keep the charts coming you are the best at that. I blame SNOOPY myself he might even get you started averaging down if you are not carefull. MACDUNK

Phaedrus
24-08-2007, 11:11 AM
"I am just surprized that you would hold a couple of your stocks when sell signals have been so obvious with your methods."
Nothing that I am holding has given a sell signal since I bought.


"I understand that FBU has been on a long uptrend, and why when it gives out sell signals in the shorter term you would disregard them..."
I don't disregard them. I act on them. I trade FBU as well as being a long-term holder.

"FPH has been a disaster this year so far - why you would hold?"
Because I have been a very, very bad boy and willfully ignored my system's current "prohibition" on buying. I impetuously threw all caution to the winds and bought a few FPH on the recent buy signals. Experience has taught me that such reckless behaviour is generally followed by regret. I don't know what came over me.

duncan macgregor
24-08-2007, 11:53 AM
Its nice to know that i am not the only silly bugger that thinks he knows better than the tried and proved system. Still thats probabely why i married the wife when i was having such a great time. In hindesight somethings are for the best. How did your trading stack up with your buy and hold?. I find my trading leaves buy and hold for dead. Macdunk

Placebo
24-08-2007, 11:57 AM
Marriage would be the classic buy-and-hold strategy. How long have you been married MacDunk? I am sure that there have been many `trading opportunities' along the way. And how come you never acted on those many `sell signals'? ;):D

foodee
24-08-2007, 12:38 PM
Have never been attracted to FPH.
Here is a co with 1.5b cap, turning over 350m in 110 countries.
Must be expensive to run the show.
OK it has good products but high tech - and costly to keep abreast or ahead of competition.

Oops I am about to be 'shot'.

cheers

ratkin
24-08-2007, 12:45 PM
There a growing amount of competition out there too , then there the greedy directors who like to take too bigger slice of the cake

Lawso
24-08-2007, 12:46 PM
*I like the full quote better, 2nd half is often cut off: "A week is a long time in politics, but 3 years is too long in office".
__________________
All I ask is the chance to prove that money won\'t buy me happiness -- Spike Milligan.

True enough, Placebo. Unfortunately, the weak are a long time in politics.

And does you friend Spike know that happiness doesn't buy money?

Jay
24-08-2007, 03:31 PM
Thnaks for the answer on the above.

I toyed with the idea of buying FPH, due to the same buy signals you mentioned on that thread probably, but so far I have not pushed the buy button.

Phaedrus
05-09-2007, 11:56 AM
I post this in response to an emailed enquiry.
The NZSX50 Index began rising out of my "caution" zone on 31/8. Today's rise means that all indicators have now been triggered with the sole exception of the 45 day Momentum Indicator.

dumbass
04-10-2007, 10:59 AM
hitting resistance level again , 4330 has proved a difficult level to overcome will it hold again ?

Phaedrus
25-11-2007, 09:31 PM
If they crash then Phaedrus will appear the next day, provide a lovely colour chart and explain to you all that the week before was the time to exit all stocks

You finally got something right for once Ratkin. The market is sliding and here is the usual lovely colour chart showing that you should, in fact, have begun selling down weeks ago. I did, and the market has gone down quite nicely since then. I suppose to your simple mind this chart could not have been drawn without the benefit of hindsight. All I can do is point out that this is just an update of the same chart with the same indicators and the same time periods that I posted here literally years ago.

By 12/11/07 (magenta dotted line) ALL of the featured indicators had been triggered, denoting significant market weakness.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSX1125.gif

KiwiBear
25-11-2007, 11:13 PM
Hi Phaedrus,
Really apreciate a fellow techies posting, your chart supports my theory of contrarian investing buying in Doom selling in Boom!
Back test buying in the middle of your caution ranges on spiking lows and Selling 1.5 times the caution range out or on any double top!
Well then get the $$$ ready for thr next buying spell, but what will that white bearded gentleman in a red suite bring???

Phaedrus
26-11-2007, 06:30 AM
Thanks KB, but obviously I need to post such charts a lot more frequently. As it is, comments such as "you should have begun selling down weeks ago - the market has gone down quite nicely since then" are likely to provoke more of Ratkin's exquisite syntax. I could of course save time and respond on his behalf.....


Mr perfect strikes again , and yes it is hindsight, the chart was posted after the event. If you had turned up and oposted the chart just before the fall then i would of been the first to say well done.

Phaedrus
22-01-2008, 01:08 PM
To avoid clutter, I have presented medium-term and long-term market indicators on separate charts.

Medium-term chart. The current ongoing "Caution" zone was first signalled in early November last year. The market has been falling steadily ever since. To me these zones are a time for caution, during which all stops are tightened,all Sell signals must be acted on, and buying is prohibited.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSX50122m.gif

Long-term chart. This chart features exactly the same oscillators as above, smoothed with 20 day moving averages and utilising much longer time periods. The time periods are selected such that none were triggered by any of the "Caution" periods of previous years. The objective here is to identify when/if any "caution" zone is more severe than its predecessors. Such an event would be very significant, with the plan being to go to 100% cash should the index break below the long-term indicators. You can see that this happened at the end of November last year. There was plenty of time (over a month) to get out before the slide really got underway.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSX50122L.gif

For additional explanation, see my posts #1 and #8 on page 1 of this thread.

Dr_Who
22-01-2008, 01:12 PM
Great graph!

If thats not a crash, then I dont know what is.

Footsie
22-01-2008, 02:12 PM
phaedrus

ANy technical levels where we might find support?

zorba
22-01-2008, 04:23 PM
.
After the initial opening fall, the NZX50 has been climbing steadily all day, now back to 3607, only a 1.1% fall overall !!!

Compare that to the ASX All Ords, which has been plunging all day, now at 5,578, so far a 5.5% fall.

NZX50 signalling the bottom of the world wide sell off ????

Probly not, but nevertheless NZX50 doing very well today given the overall situation.

And NZO back to 106 cents = opening price, while other Aussie oilers are tanking like there is no tomorrow.

Something good is on the go with NZO !!!!
.

Steve
22-01-2008, 06:21 PM
Thanks for your charts, big P! :)

A picture paints a thousand words...

Sideshow Bob
22-01-2008, 07:26 PM
Thanks for your charts, big P! :)

A picture paints a thousand words...

and alot more dollars!

Nitaa
22-01-2008, 11:21 PM
P.. i like your charts, thanks..

Where is DM's 30 day moving average...he would be gutted... seriously. Here is something that i think is quite pertanent. Often these types of graphs, long term, you will often see a correction to be followed by a major spike then followed by a major crash. Is this another one? i have no idea but if it is, it could be the biggest crash in history looming in a couple of years but a huge spoke inbetween.

Just my observation and maybe its a good thing we dont know the future.

Phaedrus
02-04-2008, 12:40 PM
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/nzsx5042.gif

Phaedrus
27-05-2008, 09:30 AM
Here is a chart of the NZSX50 Index with 10 indicators optimised to monitor the downtrend of the last 6 months or so. You can see that the majority of these indicators are again showing significant market weakness, signalling the start of another "Caution" period. (To me this generally means that all sell signals must be acted on and buying is prohibited).

This set of indicators has worked well in the past, keeping you out of the market while it was falling but signalling re-entry quite early whenever the market strengthened.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSX50527.gif

Dr_Who
27-05-2008, 10:07 AM
The NZ market is abit like a ghost town. No one around to invest. Thank God for the Aussie market.

Hoop
27-05-2008, 10:40 AM
The NZ market is abit like a ghost town. No one around to invest. Thank God for the Aussie market.
ASX all ords looking a bit sick too according to Colin Twiggs (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2008-05-24.php#asx)
Have a look at his ASX chart and you may change your mind.

Dr_Who
27-05-2008, 11:13 AM
ASX all ords looking a bit sick too according to Colin Twiggs (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2008-05-24.php#asx)
Have a look at his ASX chart and you may change your mind.

I am mainly in under valued oil & Gas stocks in Aussie, so I am not concerned where the market goes. I do have two diversified commodity stocks, LST and ADY. LST is under hostile T/O offer and ADY will take time to mature. I think ADY's is a pup slowly maturing and it will take time. :)

dumbass
13-07-2008, 05:57 PM
hitting resistance level again , 4330 has proved a difficult level to overcome will it hold again ?

updated chart from #59 4330 level was the straw that broke the camels back

prices nicely respecting the various fib levels marked on chart

there was a rally at the 38.2 level in early 2008

now sitting at 50 % retracement of bull market from 2002 if that level doesnt hold then

market heading for 2800 may pause at swing low from 2005

duncan macgregor
14-07-2008, 07:56 AM
The market has dropped roughly 25% in the last seven months taking the average investor down by that much. This is where the long term investor with no sell strategy falls over.
The falling tide drops all ships, some more than others, as we are starting to see now. You can throw all your last years fundamentals, and outdated PE analysis out the window in a steep trending market going in either direction.
You will notice that this year there will be fewer updates in the share competitions. There will be fewer posts made, after all we all like being a winner, but who wants to talk about being a loser?.
The crash is coming watch how the threads will dry up, and the get togethers at the centres drop off from lack of support. It is all becoming very interesting, i expect most of you will be gone in twelve months licking your wounds, or jumping out the windows from a great height. History repeats, when its all over the sun will shine, and the blue eyed brigade will be back chirping on about a new ice age dawning or the price of hydrogen or perhaps food parcels to the yanks who are rioting in the streets. Macdunk

dumbass
14-07-2008, 09:07 AM
The challenge in a bear market is resisting the temptation to become excessively pessimistic

I’m not sure about rioting in the streets , its just a normal healthy market reaction and if

you remain objective it provides once in a decade opportunities

zorba
14-07-2008, 09:15 AM
.
Fannie and Freddie debt -- equals 25 Iraq wars !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NZX50 crashing today big time ??

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/national/mnr/nz_sharemarket_first_to_open_today

ratkin
14-07-2008, 09:27 AM
Fannie and freddie in complete collapse but the dow only down 128 points , what does that tell you.
The market is now expecting these sort of events , becoming very hard to suprise the market on the downside now.

Dr_Who
14-07-2008, 10:09 AM
Fannie and freddie in complete collapse but the dow only down 128 points , what does that tell you.
The market is now expecting these sort of events , becoming very hard to suprise the market on the downside now.


Wait till the DOW goes below 11,000. Then all hell will break loose. I say the DOW can hit 10,000. It is ugly as hell out there. Fannie etc is only the start. I recall 1987 when alot of the US bank all fall like dominoes.

zacman
14-07-2008, 11:36 AM
The DOW 128 drop was on Friday before the weekend Fannie and freddie disclosures.

Tonights the night for the DOW reaction

zacman

duncan macgregor
14-07-2008, 12:02 PM
The DOW 128 drop was on Friday before the weekend Fannie and freddie disclosures.

Tonights the night for the DOW reaction

zacman That tells me what i knew all along that the people in the know find out what is going to happen before the herd finds out. By keeping close watch on market behaviour you find out the news before it gets published. It seems to work with companies so why would it not work with the whole damned market?. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
14-07-2008, 12:10 PM
Mackdunk, it was widely known that Sub Prime Write downs were only half way there, maybe 40% there before Fannie and freddy...
The Fed, Or the US govt will come out before open and make a statement...
They might have to bail these ones out...
We will live...
I hope to see DOW fall 150 points over night...
look at all my stocks mackdunk...
Im still laughing all the way to the bank on fundamentals...
Dont be blaming low Auckland meeting turnouts to the markets turning bad...
Thats just a cop out..
:cool:
.^sc

Serpie
14-07-2008, 12:18 PM
The DOW 128 drop was on Friday before the weekend Fannie and freddie disclosures. Tonights the night for the DOW reaction

Fannie has gone from $70 a year ago, to $10 now, and Freddie from $67 a year ago, to $7 now.
So I think the market has already priced in at least a little bit of this situation.

And anaylists were talking about F&F's predicament, and IndyMac, well before the markets even opened on Friday, so I don't think that the disclusures after the DOW closed on Friday really blew anybody's socks off.

The US Treasury and Fed have stepped in to stabilise F&F.

Serpie
14-07-2008, 12:25 PM
it was widely known that Sub Prime Write downs were only half way there, maybe 40% there before Fannie and freddy...

If we were already 40% of the way there, and F&F are about 50% of the US mortgage market, does that mean that we've only got 10% left to come out after this?

Wishful thinking!

Hoop
14-07-2008, 12:26 PM
Getting off topic guys this is the NZSX50 index thread.
....but while it's been mentioned :D ... News (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/white-house-fed-step-rescue/story.aspx?guid=%7BF942EDC2%2DE975%2D4F01%2DAF6F%2 DF1D7591E4526%7D)out 7 hours ago F&F are being rescued as the market predicted. The reason being that they too big to let fail..F&F also have global connections apparantly... I wonder if any connections in our part of the woods?

duncan macgregor
14-07-2008, 12:42 PM
Mackdunk,
I hope to see DOW fall 150 points over night...
look at all my stocks mackdunk...
Im still laughing all the way to the bank on fundamentals...
Dont be blaming low Auckland meeting turnouts to the markets turning bad...
Thats just a cop out..
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY, Remember it was me that got out the market laughing at you lot swimming against the tide. When the market is hot play it to the max. When it goes cold sit out waiting on the road kill to front up. I only fight my battles standing on the high ground, you want to pay attention and do like wise. Incidently I think you need to fire STRAT as your referee, he cant seem to work out how much you are trailing me by in our competition. When the markets are roaring you will find investment clubs with every man and his dog into shares. In the bad times look for the opposite. America is in deep trouble the chinese will take over as number one shortly. After the olympics SHREWDY then watch out for the real crash. Macdunk

Mick100
14-07-2008, 01:10 PM
... Tonight will be ugly. Buy tomorrow ?

I'll bet any one of you dooms day callers $100 that the S&P and DOW will be up on fridays close tonight ;) Challenge open until 6.00 pm today

dumbass
14-07-2008, 02:24 PM
is that why they call you MICK 100

trackers
14-07-2008, 02:46 PM
SHREWDY, Remember it was me that got out the market laughing at you lot swimming against the tide. When the market is hot play it to the max. When it goes cold sit out waiting on the road kill to front up. I only fight my battles standing on the high ground, you want to pay attention and do like wise. Incidently I think you need to fire STRAT as your referee, he cant seem to work out how much you are trailing me by in our competition. When the markets are roaring you will find investment clubs with every man and his dog into shares. In the bad times look for the opposite. America is in deep trouble the chinese will take over as number one shortly. After the olympics SHREWDY then watch out for the real crash. Macdunk

You're laughing at us lot Macca? Just because the index is down 30% doesn't mean we're all losing money; I'd propose that a few people here are doing very well indeed....In a bear market

You can keep your 8%p.a less tax a year in the bank... Good luck to ya

Dr_Who
14-07-2008, 03:10 PM
You're laughing at us lot Macca? Just because the index is down 30% doesn't mean we're all losing money; I'd propose that a few people here are doing very well indeed....In a bear market

You can keep your 8%p.a less tax a year in the bank... Good luck to ya

You are right Tracker. I bought into NZO and PRC below $1 only a few months back. NZO up 80% and PRC up 112%! :D WOOT!

dumbass
14-07-2008, 03:15 PM
I'll bet any one of you dooms day callers $100 that the S&P and DOW will be up on fridays close tonight ;) Challenge open until 6.00 pm today

ok mick i'll have a piece of that

zorba
14-07-2008, 03:24 PM
.
Latest radio reports say that the Fed is getting stuck in to support Freddie's Fannie ....

Thank the Pope and all his Host of Seraphims !!!!

Mick's wager will be very interesting -- how will the Dow go tonight ??

I'm guesing up, marginally ......

dumbass
14-07-2008, 03:28 PM
yep i reckon micks slightly ahead at moment

asia up ( hang seng and nik ), currency markets mildly dollar positive + slight yen weakness

futures up

BUT a nights a long time at the moment so hoping for so more worry to sweep the market

Mick100
14-07-2008, 05:21 PM
ok mick i'll have a piece of that

We'll sought out the details tomorrow dumbass
Good to see someone who's prepared to back their bluster with some cash unlike our esteemed guru and legend

duncan macgregor
14-07-2008, 06:17 PM
We'll sought out the details tomorrow dumbass
Good to see someone who's prepared to back their bluster with some cash unlike our esteemed guru and legend HEY MICK, We might have to call you MICK MINUS 100. Or if we were a bit unkind say you were not quite the fool quid. Only kiddin mate i never gamble unless i have control of the action. Wishing you the best of luck on your side to the bitter end as usual. Macdunk

AMR
14-07-2008, 06:23 PM
Europe opens marginally higher...Mick200?

Crypto Crude
14-07-2008, 06:34 PM
mick will be laughing straight to the bank with this...
:cool:
.^sc

Mick100
14-07-2008, 06:36 PM
yep i reckon micks slightly ahead at moment

asia up ( hang seng and nik ), currency markets mildly dollar positive + slight yen weakness

futures up

BUT a nights a long time at the moment so hoping for so more worry to sweep the market

Yeah , got my nose in front dumbass

europe opens strongly - all green
DOW futures up 100 points

long way to go though

Footsie
14-07-2008, 06:47 PM
it will be up

bottom probably in

we bottomed in March when fed bailed BEAR STERNS

now they bail Freddy and Fannie...... bottom?

ratkin
14-07-2008, 06:48 PM
Going be up, up and away , our market panicking over nothing as usual.

tim23
14-07-2008, 07:00 PM
HEY MICK, We might have to call you MICK MINUS 100. Or if we were a bit unkind say you were not quite the fool quid. Only kiddin mate i never gamble unless i have control of the action. Wishing you the best of luck on your side to the bitter end as usual. Macdunk


Hey Duncan - how can yoyu gamble and be in control at the same time!?

duncan macgregor
14-07-2008, 07:32 PM
HEY MICK, We might have to call you MICK MINUS 100. Or if we were a bit unkind say you were not quite the fool quid. Only kiddin mate i never gamble unless i have control of the action. Wishing you the best of luck on your side to the bitter end as usual. Macdunk


Hey Duncan - how can yoyu gamble and be in control at the same time!? I can see that you never played in my crown and anchor schools in the sixties, and seventies. Its only a fool that gambles on two flies climbing up a wall, or in this case what the DOW does in 24 hours. Macdunk

dumbass
14-07-2008, 08:09 PM
lighten up


you remind me of that uncle that every family has , the one you say to you mum

"ah **** have we got to go and see uncle mcdunk ?, its just that he's such a ****ing miserable sad ass know it all and he smells

yes im afraid we have to go because nobody else will visit him .

Crypto Crude
14-07-2008, 08:21 PM
mackdunk-gamble on two flies climbing up the walls... or in this case what the DOW does in 24 hours

Mackdunk,
Its not gambling...
Look at pre market... look at how good this will be for Freddy and fannie to be bailed out... DOW is going to run abit...
DOW will close up tomorrow moring (NZ time).., I will back Mick up and give you two to one odds...you pay me $100 if Dow closes up, or I pay you $200 if DOW closes down...? you keen mackdunk...
:cool:
.^sc

bermuda
14-07-2008, 08:49 PM
I can see that you never played in my crown and anchor schools in the sixties, and seventies. Its only a fool that gambles on two flies climbing up a wall, or in this case what the DOW does in 24 hours. Macdunk

Well my gamble is

Dow up tonite, possibly again 2moro nite and then we finish below where we are now by the end of this week...or defintely by next week.

The USA is going to collapse big time.

duncan macgregor
15-07-2008, 07:59 AM
Mackdunk,
Its not gambling...
Look at pre market... look at how good this will be for Freddy and fannie to be bailed out... DOW is going to run abit...
DOW will close up tomorrow moring (NZ time).., I will back Mick up and give you two to one odds...you pay me $100 if Dow closes up, or I pay you $200 if DOW closes down...? you keen mackdunk...
:cool:
.^sc SHREWDY, When will you ever learn to stick to what you understand. Looks like you might have allowed yourself to be taken advantage off by making a stupid bet. MICK 000 or should i say minus 100 is nearly as dumb but not quite. You gave a two to one advantage on a fifty fifty bet which if it had been taken up would have lost you any advantage. Allow me to show you how to gamble if you must gamble.
1, You must get a better than fifty fifty.
2, you must never gamble with anyone you dont know or trading under an assumed name.
3, If you dont know their address how can you beat the sh*t out of them if they wouse on the deal.
The Yanks are going under its only a matter of when. The NZ market and dollar value is dropping fast you would be wise to look for safe havens before its to late. I took my funds to Australia when the NZ dollar was worth 90c AUD. Today the NZD is worth 78c and will continue to drop. Macdunk

Footsie
15-07-2008, 08:48 AM
mick..... Sorry to hear of your loss

trackers
15-07-2008, 08:56 AM
SHREWDY, When will you ever learn to stick to what you understand. Looks like you might have allowed yourself to be taken advantage off by making a stupid bet. MICK 000 or should i say minus 100 is nearly as dumb but not quite. You gave a two to one advantage on a fifty fifty bet which if it had been taken up would have lost you any advantage. Allow me to show you how to gamble if you must gamble.
1, You must get a better than fifty fifty.
2, you must never gamble with anyone you dont know or trading under an assumed name.
3, If you dont know their address how can you beat the sh*t out of them if they wouse on the deal.
The Yanks are going under its only a matter of when. The NZ market and dollar value is dropping fast you would be wise to look for safe havens before its to late. I took my funds to Australia when the NZ dollar was worth 90c AUD. Today the NZD is worth 78c and will continue to drop. Macdunk

You can't wimp out of the bet AND abuse him for losing Macdunka. Looks like you saw it in the stars, so why you wouldn't you back yourself?

Dr_Who
15-07-2008, 09:04 AM
Come on Mcdunk, put your money where your mouth is and stop expelling green house carbon gases.

Mick100
15-07-2008, 09:24 AM
well and truly beaten on the home straight

send me your details through the "private message" thing on this sight dumbass and I'll get things soughted out

duncan macgregor
15-07-2008, 09:39 AM
Come on Mcdunk, put your money where your mouth is and stop expelling green house carbon gases. My money is always where my mouth is. I broadcast it far and wide that the market would downtrend leading to a crash after the olympics and that my money was safely tucked up overseas escaping the downtrending NZ dollar. The market has downtrended by 25-30% the crash prediction still stands. When its all over the macdunks will clean up on road kill. Macdunk

Joe King
15-07-2008, 09:47 AM
HaHa!
A lighthearted bit of rivalry has got to be a good tension breaker.
So MICK 100 is now MICK 0, Dumdass maybe not so dumb after all, and Ole MacDunk the ultimate winner!
Yep there was a wealth lot of learning to be had, and a few pay packets won/lost in those crown & anchor dens, 2up schools and euchre games....
Have fun all
Cheers
JK

shasta
15-07-2008, 12:42 PM
Quite liked what Lloyd Morrision of Infratil had to say about what to do in the Saturday herald ... Do your research and then steady buy over the next 12-18 months and sit back for the next 5-7 years and watch it grow ... Sage advice.

Belgarion is buying on the NZX... And the first time since April and after having dumped out May/June... Keeping the stop losses tight and expect (aboput 55/45) to be dumped again before its all over.

Read that article as well, Tony Gibbs mentioned about being brave, but not just for the sake of it! (GPG tends to hold more cash than its shareholders like!)

Seems LM & TG, have inadvertently plugged there own companies in IFT & GPG.

These 2 certainly fall under the "buy & hold" category.

Not buying on the NZX though, as apart from NZO/PRC & IFT, theres not much else i like.

Dr_Who
15-07-2008, 01:10 PM
Quite liked what Lloyd Morrision of Infratil had to say about what to do in the Saturday herald ... Do your research and then steady buy over the next 12-18 months and sit back for the next 5-7 years and watch it grow ... Sage advice.

Belgarion is buying on the NZX... And the first time since April and after having dumped out May/June... Keeping the stop losses tight and expect (aboput 55/45) to be dumped again before its all over.

What are you buying?

Footsie
15-07-2008, 01:24 PM
scared yet???

Aussie showing signs of capitulation....


get ready to pull the trigger (to buy)

Hoop
15-07-2008, 01:53 PM
Remember Human nature when reading articles...

Brave...jumping in at the same time as stupid but wins
Stupid..jumping in the same time as brave but loses.


Now combining the above phrases... the paradox of investing in a bear market is:-

If the majority think of jumping in now is being brave then the market still has further to fall
If the majority think of jumping in now is stupid then the market is at the bottom, or has already bottomed (the mauled/wounded investor is suspicious that it could be another small sucker rally)

The principle behind the above paradox is that many players still have fragments of investor optimism when the Bear market is falling.......At the bottom of a nasty bear market most players perceive doom & gloom, despair and hopelessness..pessimism..advoidance towards the market.


My personal opinion is we have only have some of the factors in play at the moment, the D&G part and perhaps despair....observation is that this bear is becoming increasingly nasty and stronger with each day passing.

Therefore Belgarion I (majority or not???) think you are brave...best of luck :)

Hoop
15-07-2008, 02:11 PM
scared yet???

Aussie showing signs of capitulation....


get ready to pull the trigger (to buy)

Have a look at Colin Twiggs diary (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2008-07-12.php#asx) before you squeeze that trigger dere cowboy :), dem Indians carrying Bows and arrows and dressed in bear skins are on the warpath:(.

Aussie 2 year support is under threat at 4800 TA target is 4400 ...
At 4925 there is a good chance another 10% of the market value may disappear.

You can bet your cowboy boots + spurs that NZX50 will follow ASX down.

Disc: NZO PPP (cash 75%)

tim23
15-07-2008, 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by belgarion
Quite liked what Lloyd Morrision of Infratil had to say about what to do in the Saturday herald ... Do your research and then steady buy over the next 12-18 months and sit back for the next 5-7 years and watch it grow ... Sage advice.

Belgarion is buying on the NZX... And the first time since April and after having dumped out May/June... Keeping the stop losses tight and expect (aboput 55/45) to be dumped again before its all over.

What are you buying?
__________________

More DPC Belgarion??

Phaedrus
15-07-2008, 05:30 PM
Belgarion is buying on the NZX
Gosh Belg - from where I sit that looks foolish rather than brave.

What have you been buying?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSX715.gif

The chart shows a selection of indicators tailored to the current downtrend. You can see that there is no hint of it weakening and that the market made a new 3 year low today.

duncan macgregor
15-07-2008, 05:57 PM
SHREWDY, Remember it was me that got out the market laughing at you lot swimming against the tide. When the market is hot play it to the max. When it goes cold sit out waiting on the road kill to front up. I only fight my battles standing on the high ground, you want to pay attention and do like wise. Incidently I think you need to fire STRAT as your referee, he cant seem to work out how much you are trailing me by in our competition. When the markets are roaring you will find investment clubs with every man and his dog into shares. In the bad times look for the opposite. America is in deep trouble the chinese will take over as number one shortly. After the olympics SHREWDY then watch out for the real crash. Macdunk Thats what i said a few days ago which requires correction. I was wrong saying the crash would come after the olympics its right now. The markets are now crashing. Macdunk

Footsie
15-07-2008, 07:11 PM
market needs to return to its m/a over the next few months...to re-test it. dont think we will just keep falling

sideline
15-07-2008, 08:08 PM
............
It could just keep falling.

I agree - where do you see next support? I guess there will be some action around 3000
because its a round number, but LT chart points more to 2900.

duncan macgregor
15-07-2008, 08:48 PM
lighten up


you remind me of that uncle that every family has , the one you say to you mum

"ah **** have we got to go and see uncle mcdunk ?, its just that he's such a ****ing miserable sad ass know it all and he smells

yes im afraid we have to go because nobody else will visit him . I would like to ask the question WHY HAS DUMBASS BEEN BANNED?. Was it for taking MICK up on a silly little wager?, if so why is Mick not banned. It might be because management thought his post about me was offensive. No offence was taken i have been and will be called a lot worse than that. WHATS THE BEEF VINCE come out with your reasons. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
15-07-2008, 09:16 PM
mackdunk-SHREWDY,
1...When will you ever learn to stick to what you understand.
2...Looks like you might have allowed yourself to be taken advantage off by making a stupid bet.
3....MICK 000 or should i say minus 100 is nearly as dumb but not quite. 4....You gave a two to one advantage on a fifty fifty bet which if it had been taken up would have lost you any advantage.
5....Allow me to show you how to gamble if you must gamble.

1, You must get a better than fifty fifty.
2, you must never gamble with anyone you dont know or trading under an assumed name.
3, If you dont know their address how can you beat the sh*t out of them if they wouse on the deal.

1... you maybe right, i'll never admit it though... hahaha...
2.... hardly, I figured that by the time I made the post you would have been tucked up in bed...:)... Big cat, you never take my bets anyway...
this might have been the first one you would have won...hahaha
3.... no comment...
4.... Odds were in my favour at the time... it was not a 50/50...

5... I met all your criteria, /1. yes better than 50/50...
..../2. I do know you... I think your name is duncan macgregor...
/3.... I do know your address... well um... you own everything in A town right? hahaha...


Red Alert

mackdunk-Thats what i said a few days ago which requires correction. I was wrong saying the crash would come after the olympics its right now. The markets are now crashing. Macdunk

Hahaha... Red Alert.... I never noticed... macdunk, this is not a crash... what was it in the late 70's that you went through?... what did you live through in the 30's?

retract your words...
only use words like crash/crisis/dump truck/smash cats/ when those things happen...
you are ahead of the gun... bang bang...
late this year/ next year is where it still stands, im hoping for DOW to fall a hundie tonight...
I will juice this baby for what its worth, then I will be gone...
I Picked up some CUE at 21cents today...
lets rock and roll...
bring daddy home the bacon...
hahaha... later....
:cool:
.^sc

zorba
15-07-2008, 09:17 PM
.

McDunk,

GOOD POST !!!!

Gudonya !!!!!!

Z

Serpie
15-07-2008, 09:18 PM
I complained re his post about you MacDunk.
I know you can stick up for yourself, but it was offensive to me, so I said so.

peat
15-07-2008, 09:19 PM
agree that dumbass shouldnt be banned
hes a great trader who makes valuable contributions

Crypto Crude
15-07-2008, 09:25 PM
that was abit much...
Dumbass beat mick and turned into a smartass, 3 minutes later he was a dumbass again...:D
:cool:
.^sc

Vince
15-07-2008, 10:57 PM
WHATS THE BEEF VINCE come out with your reasons. Macdunk
McDunk, - Actually there were quite a few that complained - 8 in total if you want to know.
Normally I don't worry too much if just one person complains, unless the post is way out of order I normally advise them to pop down to the corner Dairy and buy them-selfs a "Can of Harden-Up".

I have to be seen being proactive sometimes you know!

Just to keep you happy I'll have some stern words with Dumbass tomorrow and let him back in.

Vince

Ps Thanks for the $50 McDunk, - it's always a pleasure banning someone when you get paid for it!

AMR
15-07-2008, 11:04 PM
Glad to see the issue has been sorted...

Has anyone taken a look at the pre-market for the Dow? Down 125 points...:eek::eek:

ratkin
16-07-2008, 05:26 AM
Rally starts here. Dow has climbed out of a big hole this morning , significant developments regarding short selling and oil has had its second biggest one day fall since 198?

duncan macgregor
16-07-2008, 07:56 AM
McDunk, - Actually there were quite a few that complained - 8 in total if you want to know.
Normally I don't worry too much if just one person complains, unless the post is way out of order I normally advise them to pop down to the corner Dairy and buy them-selfs a "Can of Harden-Up".

I have to be seen being proactive sometimes you know!

Just to keep you happy I'll have some stern words with Dumbass tomorrow and let him back in.

Vince

Ps Thanks for the $50 McDunk, - it's always a pleasure banning someone when you get paid for it! This all brings out a few questions that come to mind.
1, Is VINCE a VIAGRA sales person doing this as a secondery job?.
2, Is MICK minus 100 not as smart as a DUMBASS?.
3,Did Macdunk bribe VINCE to get some DUMBASS reinstated?.
4, Will DUMBASS say something nice about MACDUNK when he gets back.
5, Will JOEKING blow himself up in the his back shed.
6, Will STRAT ever update our little competition or will he take a crash course in maths first.
6, Is NITA really short bald and ugly or only pretending to be a bloke?.
7 Will SHREWDY ever beat Macdunk at anything?.
8, Will PHAEDRUS run out of paper tracking the market down?.
9, Has the market crashed already?.
10,has Macdunk only got 8 people to stick up for him?.
ALL these questions and many more will be answered at a later date.
I do notice that the people who abuse never show up at the meetings, funny that EH?.
Macdunk

ratkin
16-07-2008, 08:05 AM
I found the post by dumbass rather amusing , im sure it was meant to be , sadly a few seem to lack a sense of humour

Year of the Tiger
16-07-2008, 08:35 AM
...has Macdunk only got 8 people to stick up for him?.
I do notice that the people who abuse never show up at the meetings, funny that EH?.
Macdunk

I think you make a valid point here Macdunk and maybe it could be a good reason for more people to be encouraged to attend the regional meetings / national conferences.. (Good god, we'll have a World Forum next!!!) :D

I'm sure that everyone who has met Macdunk (well, nearly everyone anyway..;)) would agreed that he's not a bad bloke. He is expert at getting a rise out of people, and takes it back all in good fun.

So, my suggestion is that if you think you have a problem with the likes of Macdunk, Serpie, Oiler, Shrewdie, Strat (these are some whom I have met) and any others who like to show up for a good discussion and some liquid refreshment, then do yourselves a favour and front up at the next meeting in your local area. You might just find that there are some fun (and very knowledgable) people out there....

YOTT
P.S. Apologies for being quite a bit 'Off Topic' here

peat
16-07-2008, 09:04 AM
this threads getting a bit tangential in places but just for the record dumbass did show up at the one and only forex traders meeting we had.

winner69
16-07-2008, 09:23 AM
Is today the day NZX50 starts with a 2

dumbass
16-07-2008, 09:35 AM
this is a statement i have drawn up with the help of a close friend in the media

" i was at the lowest ebb in my bet , the futures were up 100 points , the european markets were looking strong and even the yen was sinking
i broke and lashed out
im not making excuses id been working two days a week and i'd had a few
i deeply regret what i did and will have to live with it for the rest of my life'

QOH
16-07-2008, 09:39 AM
this is a statement i have drawn up with the help of a close friend in the media

" i was at the lowest ebb in my bet , the futures were up 100 points , the european markets were looking strong and even the yen was sinking
i broke and lashed out
im not making excuses id been working two days a week and i'd had a few
i deeply regret what i did and will have to live with it for the rest of my life'

I love it!!!
Feels like we need some light relief today.

Dr_Who
16-07-2008, 09:41 AM
NZX looking very ugly. If it goes below 3000 there will be a free fall? The whole NZ market feels very sick.

Footsie
16-07-2008, 09:58 AM
I didnt end up pulling the buy trigger as i had planned

just wanting to see a capitulation day.

someone said to me yesterday, " This is feels just like 87 on the NZX"

Whilst not exactly the same... some of the falls have been pretty dramatic FBU off 54% and you'd have to say that the Finance companies are the modern day equivalent of Chase, Equiticorp etc.
Petrecevic reincarnated.

There are a lot of similarities and if 87 is anything to go buy then it may be years before Phaedrus removes his "caution" from the NZX

bermuda
16-07-2008, 10:29 AM
Is today the day NZX50 starts with a 2

2 starts 2moro.

The USA is in free fall. Bush is under huge pressure. Stumbling around like the fool he is.

When you import 70% of your oil from people that that you have alienated then you have a severe problem. And when you have had a banking system that has encouraged 110% lending the problem gets bigger than Manhattan.

Because a lot of people are going to lose their jobs and default on their loans.

The Bank queues are getting longer by the day.

This is disastrous. And is something a lot of us have seen coming.

The fat lady IS singing.

upside_umop
16-07-2008, 10:52 AM
When you import 70% of your oil from people that that you have alienated then you have a severe problem. And when you have had a banking system that has encouraged 110% lending the problem gets bigger than Manhattan.



Sounds a lot like NZ...only difference is we have a slightly better govt fiscal position this time around...labour has done alright in this respect.

Hey, good lecture last night btw.

Year of the Tiger
16-07-2008, 10:58 AM
I was in the US in April and took the opportunity to sit and natter with some complete strangers, just everyday Americans who usually had no interest in the country's economy, except for payday, buying the groceries and paying the mortgage.

I was quite surprised to see how they, and many of their everyday Joe Blow friends had started to take a genuine interest in what was going on with their economy. They were making quite an effort to try and update themselves on how things were starting to unfold. They showed genuine fear, and to an extent they had not known before.

I often wonder how they are feeling now and it's people like that who I feel concerned for. They have drifted for years having been given some false sense of security that they lived the American Dream in the land of milk and honey now suddenly they find the dream has turned to a nightmare, the milk has turned sour and the bees are all fleeing the hive.

Very sad. :confused:
YOTT

dumbass
16-07-2008, 03:04 PM
the final chapter in this sorry saga , mick being a man of honour has set up payment of

wager.

im probaly breaching the confidentiallity agreement but felt it was better to get it out in the open rather than seeing in the Dominion

ratkin
17-07-2008, 04:24 AM
Like i said yesterday , the rally has started. Another big drop in oil, good results for the likes of Nokia and Johnstone and Johnstone.

I have never seen these boards so negative , people buying are percieved as naive or simply idiots, many are now too scared or dissilutioned to even contemplate buying.

I was talking to an employee of borders bookshop yesterday , they have hardly sold a single financial book in the last month and are considering a half price sale on them.

Its time to be brave , you all know this deep down but the fear has overtaken most of you.
Whatever you think of the economic outlook it has already been factored into the market. By the time the economy is at its worst the market will already be recovering.

Ask yourself who is left to sell?

Jess9
17-07-2008, 06:13 AM
So the Bear is leaving the woods? Don't mind either way (Bull or Bear) as long as I understand which. That said, I would want see a reasonable trend established before forming a new opinion. What is your basis ratkin?

duncan macgregor
17-07-2008, 07:34 AM
Like i said yesterday , the rally has started.

Ask yourself who is left to sell? Ratkin thats rather a silly statement to make.
There are a similar ammount of shares to buy or sell at any given time. In down trending markets its the informed selling to the uninformed. The informed sit it out waiting on a confirmed market uptrend, ignoring dead cat bounces, which suck more and more of the uninformed into losing positions.
The bottom pickers rely on luck, which is a very silly method of trying to increase your assets. The American economy is going under we have still got a long way left to the bottom. Macdunk

warthog
17-07-2008, 08:07 AM
Ratkin thats rather a silly statement to make.
There are a similar ammount of shares to buy or sell at any given time. In down trending markets its the informed selling to the uninformed. The informed sit it out waiting on a confirmed market uptrend, ignoring dead cat bounces, which suck more and more of the uninformed into losing positions.
The bottom pickers rely on luck, which is a very silly method of trying to increase your assets. The American economy is going under we have still got a long way left to the bottom. Macdunk

The warthog isn't clear on how "the informed" ignore dead cat bounces.

Come on Macdunk, you're up to your "everybody is silly except for Macdunk" tricks again, accompanied by a large helping of throwaway generalisations.

Don't forget to buy low, sell high!

Footsie
17-07-2008, 08:11 AM
It was a pretty powerful rally. The market has been hanging out for good news.

lets hope there is some follow through.

It always seem to be the case that the market bottoms (even if its an interim bottom) when fear is at its greatest. Bank failures... soaring oil

Whilst we didnt have a capiulation day like in january we sure had fear and panic.

I asked some friends in the industry if i should start buying (a few days ago) they all said.....dont go near the market .... its giong to go lower.

so there you go.

in summary i didnt have they guts to do any buying......... i was swayed by the crowd that if i did i would be a fool

Footsie has learnt many lessons in the past year.

duncan macgregor
17-07-2008, 08:26 AM
The warthog isn't clear on how "the informed" ignore dead cat bounces.

Come on Macdunk, you're up to your "everybody is silly except for Macdunk" tricks again, accompanied by a large helping of throwaway generalisations.

Don't forget to buy low, sell high! WARTY my muddy friend you should know that i predicted a downtrending market, falling NZ dollar, and the demise of the American economy. The only prediction left is the crash which i said would happen after the olympics. I took steps to stay right out the market, and protect against the falling NZ dollar much to the ridicule of the less informed investor. The market has dropped about 30% my dollar which i took to Australia was worth 90c AUD. The NZ dollar is now worth 79c AUD.
You now want me to join you in the mire telling you when the dead cat stops bouncing.
Its not this year my friend NZ is in deep trouble get back into your STY before the bear gets you. Macdunk

dumbass
17-07-2008, 08:58 AM
WARTY my muddy friend you should know that i predicted a downtrending market, falling NZ dollar, and the demise of the American economy. The only prediction left is the crash which i said would happen after the olympics. I took steps to stay right out the market, and protect against the falling NZ dollar much to the ridicule of the less informed investor. The market has dropped about 30% my dollar which i took to Australia was worth 90c AUD. The NZ dollar is now worth 79c AUD.
You now want me to join you in the mire telling you when the dead cat stops bouncing.
Its not this year my friend NZ is in deep trouble get back into your STY before the bear gets you. Macdunk

duncan with all that wisdom i'm surprised you did not short the dow , you have passed up

a 23 % decline in comparison to putting your money in aud and reaping a mere 12 %

reward

thats several hundred dollars of profit you have missed out on , i'll show you how to if your

interested

yours with respect dumbass

Dr_Who
17-07-2008, 09:08 AM
Dont get too excited. This small rally is maybe only a "dead cat" bounce. The fundamentals in the US and around the world is still looking terrible. If you read history, you will know that in a stagflation market, it takes many years to recover.

Oil has been to this level and bounced, so we just have to wait and see how it pans out. For the long term investor, this is a good buying market. For the med/short term investors, it is still prudent to sit in the sideline and wait.

If peak oil is true, then it will be many years before we see any recovery.

duncan macgregor
17-07-2008, 09:11 AM
Thanks DUNBASS but content having fun doing it my way keeping everything simple. Besides its not a 12% gain its over 24% gain in exchange rate. { I did double my money on the market]. Nice to see you back, are you going to add 100 to your name after taking that IRISH GIT MICK MINUS 100 to the cleaners?. Macdunk

Hoop
17-07-2008, 11:16 AM
Dr Who ....... For the long term investor, this is a good buying market.......

Up until October 2007 I was a long term investor that dabbled short term to stop boredom. My feeling is why should I buy now.

Today the hype out from the USA is huge....everyone sees a glow worm in this black environment and jump on the belief that this light is dawn approaching. Who knows..always that slim chance it is... but the for all the wrong reasons.
This todays result gives everyone a chance of being right
For the Optimist......market has bottomed
For the pessimist.....deadcat bounce (It's a doomsday party and then the world will end)
For the rest of us ...Streading softly but ..another day another dollar (hopefully?).

Commodities have seen a fall off for the time being.

Oil is seen as the equity hand brake on the worlds ecomony at the moment so lets look analytically without media hype crash BS.

Oil at $135 is at this moment on a very crucial point... its resting on a support line and also on a 3 month uptrend line. If the price goes lower than this point both lines are broken. (some may wish on this being an inflection point)
If its breaks below $135 a target of $125 and another support at $122.....so there is much heavy resistence the oil price meets while falling which means hugh downward pressure will be needed to break down these suppports.
If it bounces back upwards the restance point is $148.

Note Oil has to fall to below its primary support of $100 for the Oil bull market phase to end.

It is a rule of thumb (loose rule!) that Commodities and Equities are inversely correlated..therefore using this rule in isolation the equity market won't see a bull until oil breaks $100.

I use many other rules and analysis results and combine them to gauge a better chance outcome in the near future... so don't get too hung up over this simple rule example used in isolation. But in saying this my results point to the fact that the bear is medically in the the best of health at the moment. Commonsense tells me to keep out of its way.

Footsie
17-07-2008, 01:13 PM
For all the long term stock pickers

I went through a draw today and found some notes I had made about stocks I liked back in 2000.
The list includes
Nufarm
Montana
Fletcher Energy
Warehouse
Wrightston

Those stocks all had pretty good runs over the following 7 years.

Food for thought.........Long term... for example what does it matter if you buy your RAK at 2.70 or 2.20 if in 7 years it's 10.00

Dr_Who
17-07-2008, 01:46 PM
Montana = Corporate Investments before the T/O?

I recall making money in Fletcher Energy, WRI and WHS. If only F. Energy was still listed. But then the breakup of Fletchers was just the recipe for overseas vultures to buy our assets cheap.

ratkin
17-07-2008, 02:24 PM
I had corporate investments at around 80c and sold as montana for about 4.00 i seem to remember.

Still peeved off about Frucor though!!! For those that dont remember frucor with V were bought by a song by Danoni when markets were very cheap . Was very annoyed at having to sell. The herd were all quite happy taking a quick profit, no patience.

Shows how quickly valuations go up , wasnt that long ago bought fletcher building for around 2.20 if i remember rightly , ryman at 1.70 before all the splits , plenty of examples of what can happen over a five year holding.

Can go the other way of course but provided buy decent companies at decent valuations then it hard to go to far wrong in the long run. One or two may hit unexpected trouble but if diversified enough shouldnt be a problem

Dr_Who
17-07-2008, 02:48 PM
Still peeved off about Frucor though!!! For those that dont remember frucor with V were bought by a song by Danoni when markets were very cheap . Was very annoyed at having to sell. The herd were all quite happy taking a quick profit, no patience.



Yep, I recall FRU :). Bought at the right time, just a few months before the T/O by the French. Went out and bought a few cans of V to celebrate when the T/O offer was announced. Unfortunately FRU not a good IPO, the sp trended down from listing, so I assume most shareholders just had enough and wanted out.

ratkin
17-07-2008, 02:58 PM
I bought untold amounts of those things , many at under the listing price. Made a tidy profit in the end but it should of been so much more.
Frucor still have great products in Mizone V and a few others but sadly we not seeing any of the profits.

When they listed V and energy drinks in particular were seen as a five minute wonder. Five years later and V and red bull etc are going as strong as ever.

Would of been a ten dollar stock by the time the market peaked , yet people were prepared to throw it away for a couple of dollars.
Just shows how useless the herd really are and why i cant be bothered following them

zacman
17-07-2008, 03:28 PM
So the issue becomes which are the stock which are most oversold and are likely to give a good return over the next 5 to 7 years.

The NZX15 is a good starting point and I would suggest that TEL and FBU are likely candidates. FPH is another which, I believe, has room to grow but is currently oversold.

Beyond that I am sure that there are other worthy canditates.

Patience is a virtue and I am sure that the opportitunities are improving by the day

zacman

Dr_Who
17-07-2008, 03:41 PM
Hey Ratkin, whats ya pick to buy when/if this market turns.

These are the ones I am keeping an eye on.

PPL
VCT
SKC (maybe)
WHS
AIR
FPH
CEN

Hell, you can throw a dart at the NZX50 and still be a winner once this market turns. ;) I currently have VCT in the portfolio.

ratkin
17-07-2008, 03:43 PM
I already have FPH AIA PPL and CEN of your others i would personally go for SKC wouldnt touch the airline or the washing machine outfit.
Almost bought Rakon today but thought better of it. Dont like to invest in things i dont understand.

Bought a few more IFT instead and topped up on my aussie biotech Acrux.

That it for me now for at least six weeks as am going on holiday to cornwall , not even taking my computer with me and fully intend to not even look at the markets.
Will be doing some sailing on the little creeks around truro/ falmouth

dumbass
17-07-2008, 04:03 PM
i think something else that needs to be considered is the time component of market

corrections

seems there are plenty of punters thinking markets just go up or down and as soon as the bottom is identified can just start buying again

i think there are going to be extended market ranges before another bull

market hits its straps

a corrective wave lasting probably another few years seems most likely

efectively where the price reaches a low point then retraces most of the drop and then

back down , simply to allow time component to develop

so i guess you got to trade it or just stick it in a bank and go away for a few years

dumbass
17-07-2008, 05:01 PM
i will post a chart of 1999 - 2003 correction

so if your a little sensitive turn away

dumbass
17-07-2008, 05:29 PM
thats a lot of ups and downs, just think how many sleepless nights you had over that 4 yr

period if you bought and held

Jess9
17-07-2008, 06:30 PM
For all the long term stock pickers

I went through a draw today and found some notes I had made about stocks I liked back in 2000.
The list includes
Nufarm
Montana
Fletcher Energy
Warehouse
Wrightston

Those stocks all had pretty good runs over the following 7 years.

Food for thought.........Long term... for example what does it matter if you buy your RAK at 2.70 or 2.20 if in 7 years it's 10.00

Footsie, the obvious reason is that for the same total $ you get more shares and therefore more leverage to appreciation per share (or a greater total % $ gain) when the market does indeed turn. May as well use that Bear were you can ; ) just my opinion though.

beacon
18-07-2008, 10:06 AM
DA, isn't that chart a bit overused now?

dumbass
18-07-2008, 10:22 AM
hey beacon , not quite sure what your getting at

Footsie
18-07-2008, 10:47 AM
bear markets = waterfall selloff's and snap back rallies

looks like the snap back rally has started (although the yanks are bound to profit take tonight)

how are you all going to profit from this rally?
Thing is... if you do want to buy this rally u have to get in now..... not wait 6 weeks.

dumbass
18-07-2008, 10:59 AM
starting to look very promising this rally should retrace 50% of the entire downrend and

quick if key support levels hold.

indicators sharply up

ratkin
18-07-2008, 11:05 AM
The NZ and aussie markets not exactly powering ahead

Footsie
18-07-2008, 11:57 AM
NZ never does as we dont have hedge funds moving our market

and aussie is resource heavy.... and resource stocks getting hit after oil

Dr_Who
18-07-2008, 11:58 AM
The NZ and aussie markets not exactly powering ahead

I as thinking the same thing. The blue chips are only up slightly with small turnover. I think the market is saying that the weak global economy that has an impact on oil will also have an impact on corporate earnings. So a lose/lose situation for both oil and equities.

I will still stay on the sideline and wait abit longer. I have to admit that some stocks are looking very tasty at these levels.

Hoop
18-07-2008, 12:04 PM
The NZ and aussie markets not exactly powering ahead

NZX volumes are low too.
Investors outside of Wall St being cautious??

...........maybe, the after hours trading may have poured cold water on their newly found optimism..Quote from todays Marketwatch..."...The Nasdaq-100 After Hours Indicator, which tracks the evening action of the index's leading stocks, slid 32 points, or 1.8%, to 1,820.99. Most days, the index only sees fractional moves...."

Jess9
18-07-2008, 01:34 PM
Hoop, pardon my ignorance, but where is that index quoted for future web lookup (and/or ticker if you have handy).

Dr_Who
18-07-2008, 02:21 PM
Looks like we in little NZ are feeling the global credit crunch earth quake. Retail banks will keep our retail lending rates up due to additional cost of borrowing from overseas. The reserve bank must be feeling powerless these days. Cant control inflation and cant control retail rates.

Hoop
18-07-2008, 05:29 PM
Hoop, pardon my ignorance, but where is that index quoted for future web lookup (and/or ticker if you have handy).

Hi Jess
Its on the NASDAQ website and click on extended trading tab.

click on this URL and it will take you straight there

http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_indicator_after.stm

I was amazed I still had it bookmarked as I had forgotten about it ...shows you how often I use it :)

Jess9
18-07-2008, 07:16 PM
Thanks Hoop, appreciated!

AMR
18-07-2008, 07:32 PM
Hong Kong opened high and seemed to be closing lower but in the last few minutes a strong rally has taken hold, Europe opened lower but heading up. The correction already over?

ratkin
19-07-2008, 06:02 AM
As i write it looking like another reasonable day for the DOW, the market could of stumbled today but it looks like this rally has some legs.

The failure of the march rally was partly due to the massive oil bubble where many lost all sense of reality. Hysterical pundits screaming 200 dollars a barrel and the end of civilisation as we know it.

Citigroup result could of been a major banana skin but all up the reporting season is reminding people that mostt companies are still making decent amounts of money, still paying out dividends

Lizard
19-07-2008, 07:21 AM
Hi Ratkin, I'm with you, Footsie and Belgarion and believe now is very likely a good time to be accumulating long term positions on the NZX in good quality stocks.

I guess there is always going to be some diversification in views on when exactly to buy. Some people are going to be annoyed if they don't buy everything on exactly the right day or hour, whereas I'm mostly content to just buy in the right quarter...

Enjoy your holiday! Sailing around Cornwall sounds like super fun! ;):cool:

Excelsior
19-07-2008, 09:17 AM
Better time to buy than six months ago! Warren Buffet's done alright and he never bought at the bottom or sold at the top.

beacon
19-07-2008, 10:10 AM
hey beacon , not quite sure what your getting at

DA, thought I saw chart to 2003 ...

Hoop
19-07-2008, 11:52 PM
Hi Ratkin, I'm with you, Footsie and Belgarion and believe now is very likely a good time to be accumulating long term positions on the NZX in good quality stocks.

I guess there is always going to be some diversification in views on when exactly to buy. Some people are going to be annoyed if they don't buy everything on exactly the right day or hour, whereas I'm mostly content to just buy in the right quarter...

Enjoy your holiday! Sailing around Cornwall sounds like super fun! ;):cool:

Your optimism scares me more than the bear:)

You guys might be right....but Hoop is paranoid about the rumoured global financial crash and resulting global depression..yeah, yeah, I know, reading too many Horror comics:)

I'll sleep easier with my cash buried in a tin in the back garden.
Ooooo:eek:pps what did I say

PS: - Beware of the E

NZO PPP 75% cash ( + short term punts in the rallies)

Lizard
19-07-2008, 11:59 PM
Your optimism scares me more than the bear:)


Cheers Hoop! If you're waiting for me to turn into a pessimist, you may have to wait until I'm dead. :D

Lizard
20-07-2008, 01:07 PM
I'll sleep easier with my cash buried in a tin in the back garden.
Hoop, if you're really that bearish, there's no argument, you had just better spend that money while it's still worth something! For starters, no excuses for not making it to the Wgtn ShareTrader meeting... and then if you're still feeling bearish, we can pass you the tab :p

In the event of your rumoured global financial collapse, either we all go back to subsistence living and self-sufficiency or creative people invent new or altered ways to swap goods and services. Either way, I feel safer with an ownership stake in a diverse range of property and companies rather than solely holding various emblems of trust such as cash, gold and bank statements.

And yes, I am very aware of the "E" - and therefore the need to use valuation tools that can pick up companies selling at "once in a lifetime" prices as a result of retarded earnings forecasts.

I am certainly not suggesting investors jump in and load up to the gunwales at this point. I just think it is past time to be afraid. I was more bearish than most when I polled ShareTrader (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5115) in August last year, although even then I was only prepared to pick the ASX to range trade for a while (and I guess it all depends what time span you wish to pick as to who was most correct back then.). I was one of only two people to turn bullish in another poll (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=191296) at the end of March - and although hindsight now shows this was not the ultimate low, it did provide some very tradeable gains as well as some low prices on individual shares which have not been re-visited yet.

For the NZX in particular, liquidity makes it difficult for even small investors like myself to buy what I want, whenever I want to. So I think the sensible move is to take gradual positions when the opportunities present. But there are many more nimble people on this forum, with better trading acumen than I have, that will no doubt outperform my stolid ways.

Jess9
20-07-2008, 05:24 PM
With you at present Hoop. Until P comes in and posts a nice little chart showing the turn; I'm thinking bear strategies remain in place. These have been clearly posted on this site and make sense to stick with at present (to me at least). That said, happy to accumulate a few select resource shares - but at the right price : )

Lizard
20-07-2008, 06:41 PM
Until P comes in and posts a nice little chart showing the turn; I'm thinking bear strategies remain in place.

Good strategy. Maybe next weekend then, since we're still 100+ points off the old 36 day EMA (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=198183&postcount=227)? Unless he's brave enough to provide some insights on the index candlesticks. :cool:

Footsie
21-07-2008, 09:27 AM
Jess

If there is a sector you want to avoid... its resources.
unless all your positions are on tight stops.

All the hot money and hedge funds have been chasing this sector for too long.

I only see two outcomes here:
1. Bear market continues and finally ravages all stocks including resources
2. Market recovers and hedge funds switch out of resources back into industrials and banks.

Investors are ficle and whats flavour of the month now wont be next year.

Jess9
21-07-2008, 08:53 PM
Below, seems very sensible. It was posted on "Investing strategies and secular bear markets" thread:

-------------------------------------------------------------

Per Mick100..."commodities

this is a copy of a post I made on the first page of this thread - it is as true today as when it was written

I believe we have been in a secular bear market, in general stocks, for the past six yrs as winner has stated. But if you dig a bit deeper you will find that commodities are negitively corellated to general stocks. When general stocks go into long term bear markets (15-20 yrs) commodities go into long term bull markets - Have a look at charts of the CRB index and the DOW from the late 60s to 1981. This pattern has repeated itself over and over for the last 200 yrs.

Look at a chart of the CRB index since 2001
Look at a chart of crude oil since 2001
Look at a gold chart since 2001
Look at any of the base metal charts since 2001
Then have a look at a chart of the s&p 500

Commodities are going up, general stocks are going sideways."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold is doing nicely so far this year ; )

Do I mis-understand?

Lizard
24-07-2008, 08:04 AM
OCR reduced to 8%. Up we go? :)

Lizard
24-07-2008, 10:20 AM
Well, +1.84% looks like up to me...

Though I guess retracement might start in another day or two.

Excelsior
24-07-2008, 03:48 PM
That's what I think is likely. Just a little bounce at present, but there's more underlying gloom around than I can remember in my mere 60 odd years of existence.

That's the perfect time to start buying when the gloom is overwhelming. Pretty good bounce for a dead cat happening now. Maybe the cat lives again. Still 2/3 in cash but been buying over the last week. Don't miss the bus. Psychologically harder to buy when you have to pay a premium over last weeks prices.

Hoop
05-08-2008, 11:34 AM
NZ in recession...now recognised by the Treasury (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10525361)
July NZ economic data to show a sharp deterioration

Some of the worst data in NZ economic history have emerged this last week and yet the NZX50 isn't reacting.....Hmmmm... how strange.

NZX50 (last few days) not reacting to the falls in the equity markets around the world neither......its seemed to have temporarily decoupled and is enjoying it's own local bear market rally

Why??

Footsie
05-08-2008, 12:15 PM
i dont understand either....

my theory is that we have few resource companies and our export firms will benefit from the falling dollar.

peat
05-08-2008, 12:20 PM
just a technical correction? they play out on all time frames....

maybe quite a few are trying to catch the falling knives

Lizard
05-08-2008, 01:05 PM
Hoop, my understanding is that this is typical of recessions - the market starts going up when they are half way through. Since, by definition, a recession starts at least 6 months before it can actually be officially named, then often the the market turns at or about the time the recession is formally acknowledged.

So far, it appears the market may have turned after two quarters - which means that already, we can probably expect at least 4 quarters of negative growth.

This was one of the points I was trying to make in the "What are we Waiting for?" (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6149) thread. The RBNZ link in post 21 gives the dates of NZ recessions and post 31 gives my findings as to when the market actually bottomed during each of those periods. Unfortunately, it's a little imprecise, but "half-way" looks to be about right from what I could find.

As to whether we are actually half way through this recession, I couldn't say...but more than 4-6 quarters in one blow would seem unlikely.

Hoop
05-08-2008, 01:12 PM
just a technical correction? they play out on all time frames....

maybe quite a few are trying to catch the falling knives

Yeah ...probably right ...looking back on the NZX50 chart it broke below the 3200 low set 32 months ago and rebounded to it resistance level and looks like it will respect it for now.
Peat have you noticed on the ASX its presently breaking its long term support (2years) level (4900)
So technically ASX is doing now what NZX50 did 2 to 3 weeks ago..correct??

shane_m
05-08-2008, 01:54 PM
New Zealand appears likely to become the first Western country to slip into recession this year, new figures show.

The New Zealand Treasury today said it believed the economy had contracted for the second successive quarter, satisfying the definition of a technical recession.

Official GDP figures for the June quarter will not be released until next month, but Treasury today released its overview of July economic indicators.

During the March quarter Gross Domestic Product shrank by 0.3%.

"Our view is that the economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter in June,'' Treasury said.

"Annual average growth in real production GDP in the calendar 2008 year is expected to slow to 0.5% to 0.75%,'' it said.

If the analysis is correct, New Zealand would become the first Western country to go into recession this year.

The last time New Zealand faced successive quarters of negative growth was more than 10 years ago, between September 1997 and March 1998.

Research economist with Westpac Bank, Dominick Stephens, said he was in no doubt his country was in recession.

Mr Stephens said drought conditions in the first half of this year hurt farm production, a major contributor to the economy.

It also reduced hydro-electricity generation, causing some manufacturers to curtail production, he said.

He said consumers were also tightening their belts, as the global credit crunch forced up interest rates, and higher petrol prices strained budgets.

"We think the consumer is out for the count for the foreseeable future,'' he said.

"Both in New Zealand and in Australia we have been spending more than we earn on the back of rising housing prices. This is obviously not a sustainable strategy. It was always going to come crashing down,'' he said.

Treasury also said inflation rose to 4% in the year to June, and was expected to peak around 5% in September, due to higher food and fuel prices, and higher non-tradeable inflation.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/nz-recession-likely-treasury-says-20080805-3q8l.html

Hoop
05-08-2008, 11:51 PM
Hoop, my understanding is that this is typical of recessions - the market starts going up when they are half way through. Since, by definition, a recession starts at least 6 months before it can actually be officially named, then often the the market turns at or about the time the recession is formally acknowledged.

So far, it appears the market may have turned after two quarters - which means that already, we can probably expect at least 4 quarters of negative growth.

This was one of the points I was trying to make in the "What are we Waiting for?" (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6149) thread. The RBNZ link in post 21 gives the dates of NZ recessions and post 31 gives my findings as to when the market actually bottomed during each of those periods. Unfortunately, it's a little imprecise, but "half-way" looks to be about right from what I could find.

As to whether we are actually half way through this recession, I couldn't say...but more than 4-6 quarters in one blow would seem unlikely.

Hi Liz
Motley fool article (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/03/24/finding-the-bottom-of-a-recession.aspx) reinforcing your post.
Yeah...The million dollar question how long is this NZ recession going to be?? 7 months so far as July data was a shocker

Footsie
06-08-2008, 07:34 AM
IMHO
from now onwards is the time to start acquiring NZ assets...

anytime between now and early 2010.... just be picky and dont pay up
whether that be shares or property or businesses

PS
DOW rallies 330 pts... AMEN

Footsie
06-08-2008, 07:40 AM
LIZ

Apparently the market bottoms.... when a recession is officially declared

dumbass
10-08-2008, 09:43 AM
the coming rally on monday will take price action into down trend line

as well as 38.2 fib retracement level where wave A finished

will be watching if price respects these levels as major resistance and possibly

the start of the c wave down

Footsie
11-08-2008, 10:15 AM
I'm not so sure...

I think the worst of the news is out of the way...

sure more bad news will flow... but now ALL the finance companies have gone.... and property has really started to crunch, also retail is dead

So that leaves only one way to go esp with dollar falling and rate cuts.

A solid break above 3,400 and a cut of your trendline would reinforce this.

IMHO... the time to buy is the turn of the next pull back as then you can be sure of the bottom

Toddy
11-08-2008, 10:46 AM
the coming rally on monday will take price action into down trend line

as well as 38.2 fib retracement level where wave A finished

will be watching if price respects these levels as major resistance and possibly

the start of the c wave down

If you post the same graph for the interest rate curve and the f.x rate then you will most likely draw a different conclusion.

Hoop
11-08-2008, 12:49 PM
I have had the NZX50 index 3440 figure in my sights since the beginning of the year.
First it was a support which it bounced off in April to give us a decent bear market rally which some of us made money from...then that same support broke about 6 weeks ago to end that Bear market rally.
Now that once support 3440 has turned into a major resistance level which will take some positive momentum to break through. Is there enough available money in the NZ Equity market to provide the momentum to push through this 3440 resistance barrier????


The million dollar questions at the moment.

Is this another bear market rally..if so the chances are 3440 is the top...so should not invest now as it is too late.

If 3440 resistance is penetrated significantly this could be the sign that the bear is dying.

If 3440 is penetrated but not by much (3440 -3675ish) I would be wary of typical bear market false break which would dramatically fall back

I'm still not convinced the bear market is at the end of its cycle..too many end of bear market phase historic signals have not appeared yet including behavioural attitudes signals..however agree that the Bear market could be in its last phase ..how long this lasts is any ones guess as time is not a constant in defining phase periods.

I'm in Dumbass camp at the moment. There's good chance the NZX 50 still has a low lower than 3000.
This sharp bear market rally (until proved otherwise) has taken me by surprise as I expected a dead cat bounce. So mostly cashed up and resisting temption to invest at this point of time in upward trending stocks.

Willing to wait and confirm... 3440 is a one key index figure to watch for...and this not far away at the moment.

dumbass
11-08-2008, 01:09 PM
If you post the same graph for the interest rate curve and the f.x rate then you will most likely draw a different conclusion.

not really , free falling currency and interest cuts are not always the answer, viz DOW

Footsie
11-08-2008, 04:05 PM
The reality is that anyone who did some buying mid july of oversold stocks such as SKC, PPL, FPH, RAK should now be up 10-20% on their positions......... unless of course you put most of your eggs into WHS :(
then you'd be down.


cant believe the number of bad calls for footsie this year though....tis costing me money and my record.

determined not to finish 2008 in the red.. so I have some work to do (market willing)
A takeover of one of my holdings would help :)

Dr_Who
11-08-2008, 04:11 PM
Result reporting month in Sept will be very interesting. The real test will be in the sept pudding. I am gonna wait till sept.

AMR
12-08-2008, 08:09 PM
It looks like the Dow will fall back below resistance tomorrow, judging by the way the Asian indices were moving. With the typical repercussions for the NZX50 index.

dumbass
13-08-2008, 06:44 AM
looks like breakout of bearish ascending wedge

needs to be confirmed possibly with test of red trend line, nicely shown in previous

bearish wedge

kizame
19-08-2008, 12:39 PM
Hi,can anyone point me in the direction of a site that does a good chart of the nzsx top 50 index,your help would be much appreciated,thanks.

Lizard
19-08-2008, 01:14 PM
Yahoo charts (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENZ50#chart1:symbol=%5Enz50;range=1y;i ndicator=ema(36)+wpr(40)+rsi(16);charttype=candles tick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source= undefined), code is ^nz50

Unfortunately, the data is always running about 18 hours behind and not real time.

For (close to) real time, I use charts on broker sites which show the intraday - not very flash. But is good for looking in the last hour of trade to get a feel for market sentiment.

kizame
19-08-2008, 02:05 PM
Thanks Lizard,much abliged.

Hoop
29-10-2008, 12:30 PM
OK.... Elliott Waves and Fibonacci are not everyone's cup of tea however they can be useful sometimes and they have their place amongst their followers:).

When trying to analyse ( by pinpointing) where the market is within the primary cycle we all know now that it is the Bear cycle but the $Million question is...Are we at the end of the bear cycle? or is there still some way to go?

We all have differing opinions ...even analysts using the same data seem to conjure up differing opinions.

My method is to pinpoint by using as many different principals theories, historical re-occurrences, differing methodologies as as I personally know of......NO!! I'm not yet at the levels of tea cup readings ..but close:)

Using methodologies and such like and obtaining similar results from them... I personally call that result a duck.
When all my ducks line up in a row it presents a view that an excellent chance that the overall result will happen.

At the moment not all of my ducks have lined up but a large number are moving together towards lining up. Enough so that so that I have bought into some selected NZX stocks these last couple of weeks. Many of my ducks are DOW and S&P orientated because that is where most of the research data is found. NZX researched data is limited, not freely available to the public domain and therefore hard to find.

Of specific interest is the NZX50 analysis I did this morning.
For all the Bullish investors out there "champing at the bit" looking for any excuse (no matter how slight) to enter this undervalued but highly dangerous market... even if its the limp excuse that birds are chirping louder this morning is a good enough reason for them to jump in, then this duck will certainly be bullishly exciting and great news for them;).

It is roughly and simply drawn, not exact and I have done the calculations manually, the Elliott waves and Fibonacci may not be to the purists satisfaction but I have kept it simple..... close enough for me (and now others) to take it a bit more seriously than a pasting glance if they want to. If any anyone wants to iron out the wrinkles and make it more accurate and post it, they are more than welcome to knock themselves out over it.

Note before reading below..... Hoop is aware that this is only one duck and like swallows... observing one does not make it a summer, it may have just got lost ;)

It seems the 2600 NZX50 index level is becoming important....Is this a possible bottom? a springboard for the next bear market rally or nothing but another support line waiting to be slaughted by the raging bear?

macduffy
29-10-2008, 03:14 PM
Thanks, Hoop.

Having tried to ignore T/A for the best part of my first 35 years of investing I finally admitted that this was a very dangerous way to live!

;)

dumbass
29-10-2008, 06:39 PM
my thoughts:

technical analysis is just astrology for sharemarket investors.

and

TA is like every bubble in history, just because past trading behaviour tells me a tulip is worth $100 doesn't make the tulip worth $100.

stick to the tea leaves hoop.

are you sure your just 'smokin cubans' ?

Phaedrus
20-01-2009, 09:32 AM
The system as presented in this thread has worked superbly at what it was designed for - identifying early signs of weakness, then pulling investors completely out of the market when the weakness escalated. These same indicators will identify a logical point for conservative investors to re-enter the market.

It is easy to see that right now, none of the featured indicators are anywhere near signaling the end of the downtrend and permission to buy.

For those of you without access to Average True Range trailing stops, a simple 11% trailing stop gives an approximate equivalent in this instance.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX50buyLT120.gif

Hoop
02-03-2009, 12:33 PM
Looking at the NZX50 chart....have a guess on which day the latest bear market rally finished and all the indicators turned south again for another downward leg of pain

If you are superstitious ..yep you picked it Friday the 13th Feb ....spooky!

Dr_Who
02-03-2009, 12:43 PM
Aussie market is totally stuffed.

High inflation with very low growth!! :eek:

Lizard
06-05-2009, 08:05 AM
The system as presented in this thread has worked superbly at what it was designed for - identifying early signs of weakness, then pulling investors completely out of the market when the weakness escalated. These same indicators will identify a logical point for conservative investors to re-enter the market.

It is easy to see that right now, none of the featured indicators are anywhere near signaling the end of the downtrend and permission to buy.

For those of you without access to Average True Range trailing stops, a simple 11% trailing stop gives an approximate equivalent in this instance.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX50buyLT120.gif

Apologies if you have answered this elsewhere Phaedrus, but how many of the conservative indicators have now triggered an entry and when? Looks to me like most triggered about 16-23 April, but my freebie charts aren't a good enough match for yours for me to be sure.

Phaedrus
06-05-2009, 10:33 AM
The majority of indicators had triggered by 17/4/09, Liz, giving conservative investors the OK to then re-enter the market. This system had them 100% cashed up and completely out of the market for around 17 months.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZSX50con56.gif

Lizard
06-05-2009, 11:57 AM
Thanks Phaedrus. :)

From your point of view as an experienced trader, did trading the short-term rallies as per your "when to re-enter" triggers prove advantageous over just staying out? Was the additional work involved "worth it"?

Phaedrus
06-05-2009, 04:48 PM
My "countertrend" trades gave the usual mixed results. For example I had good wins with MFT, NPX and RAK, a loss with FPH and more losses than wins with FBU.
Overall it was well worthwhile and maintained my interest in the market, but such trading does require close monitoring of positions. I don't regard it as "additional work" - It's what I do for a living.
I have never liked simply sitting on cash and would have found a total withdrawal from the market for 17 months all but impossible.

Lego_Man
06-05-2009, 04:56 PM
Do you short Phaedrus?

scamper
06-05-2009, 05:09 PM
Not sure that that's a cool question, lego...
but, talking of shorting, have just received an email from asb saying that in future they will be asking for ownership details before permitting sales.
that is, asb will not do short trades.
scamper's an online investor....

Lego_Man
06-05-2009, 05:40 PM
Not sure that that's a cool question, lego...


Call me naive but i dont understand why it would be...

Lizard
06-05-2009, 05:55 PM
Thanks Phaedrus. My portfolio was still too weighted to "buy-and-hold" to be in positive territory right now, but the T.A has still given me some good recovery trades.

I found the most frustrating thing with the index-tracking method was that the majority of triggers were hit during school holidays when I was away from the internet. Perhaps there is a trading strategy in that! :p I also found there were stocks that could be bought on TA+FA on the days when I was fighting extreme despondency, and I think the majority of those trades worked out well. However, I'd group that experience down there with childbirth in terms of "things I'd like to experience again..."

Time will tell if your system has signalled a longer-term bottom rather than a bear-market rally. The former would provide the last chunk of confidence I need. Thanks again.

Phaedrus
06-05-2009, 06:18 PM
Do you short, Phaedrus?Not in NZ or Aus. USA only.

Lego_Man
07-05-2009, 01:56 PM
A true patriot...


:salute:

Phaedrus
07-05-2009, 03:52 PM
Unfortunately your salutation is unwarranted.
The reason is pragmatism rather than patriotism.
$9.99 Short or Long, for any size trade with a large, fast, and volatile market.

Footsie
07-05-2009, 04:54 PM
Phaedrus any chance of you completing one of these charts for the ASX.

thanks

Dr_Who
09-05-2009, 08:56 AM
Global bull market.

The rising NZD and our high retail rates is a concern for the economy.

Phaedrus
09-05-2009, 12:12 PM
Here you are Footsie. I know it's posted in the wrong place!
Very similar to NZ eh?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AllOrd59.gif

AMR
09-05-2009, 12:35 PM
Excellent work...wish I had implemented a similar system earlier instead of putting it on the back burner.

Having "missed out" on this latest rally because of a spate of analysis paralysis (reading articles with tidbits such as "most overbought market in 23 years"...."US government manipulation"..."changes in mark to market rules") I now realise the need for a clear and unambiguous index tracking system like this and also to avoid the media BS.

Phaedrus
12-05-2009, 07:55 AM
AMR, Unfortunately all my old ST charts were bumped because I failed to log in to my webspace provider for a few months when overseas recently. I can recover and repost these charts but it is very time consuming. Nevertheless I have re-posted the chart that began this thread on 10/8/2007. In my opinion (!) it is worth going back and re-reading this post. You can see that it attracted the usual criticisms, but I am very proud of it because it absolutely refutes the hoary old argument that TA is "all done with hindsight" and "can only look back". Here we have TA looking forward and planning for a future event. My final comment was almost prescient :-

"If this market tanks, I am NOT going with it."

Footsie
15-05-2009, 12:28 PM
phaedrus

Are you saying that based on your system you are now 100% invested in the asx/nzx or to put it more technically, the charts indicate it is now "safe" to be 100% invested?

I only ask as i recently purchased a position in a stock (HFA), within an uptrend at 24c after it broke res of 20c, only to stop myself out at 18.5c as it collapsed with the market..

I went quite large in this position as I felt the market was in a "safe" buying zone, and took a bit hit, 23% in 3 days to be precise!

It just seems that if the ASX Small companies index can drop 4.6% in a day, reminiscent of Oct last year, perhaps I should still be cautious? and not moving to 100% invested?

Footsie.

Phaedrus
15-05-2009, 01:33 PM
Phaedrus, are you saying that based on your system you are now 100% invested in the asx/nzx?No. But I am "allowed" to go to 100% if I wish.


.... or to put it more technically, the charts indicate it is now "safe" to be 100% invested?Charts can never offer "safety", Footsie. All they can do is reassure you that you are at least in synch with the market. As always, you are still free to make bad entries and/or lose money!


I only ask as i recently purchased a position in a stock (HFA), within an uptrend at 24c after it broke res of 20c, only to stop myself out at 18.5c as it collapsed with the market..While buying on a rising market increases the odds of your making a good entry, it doesn't guarantee it, unfortunately! Maybe you could have been in quicker and out quicker. Whatever - you win some, you lose some. Look at the huge gains you have been making lately and tell me if it has been worth your while being in this uptrend or not. Whether it turns out to be merely a Bear rally or the turnaround from the bottom is of academic interest only, in my opinion.


I went quite large in this position as I felt the market was in a "safe" buying zone, and took a bit hit, 23% in 3 days to be precise!I reckon that your big mistake was to feel safe! These are interesting times. It seems to me that to feel safe right now is inappropriate!


Perhaps I should still be cautious? and not moving to 100% invested?In my opinion you should be very cautious. The market could so easily go lower. People manage risk in many different ways. For some, caution would mean keeping a very close eye on their exit indicators. Others would maintain very tight stops - much tighter than they would usually run. Others would limit the amount they had invested. Others would act only on exceptionally good buy signals. Some would reduce the number of stocks they held so as to be able to more closely monitor their holdings. Irrespective of whether we are in a Bear rally or a turnaround from the bottom, this uptrend will end. They all do. All but the permabulls should have their finger poised over the sell button!

Footsie
15-05-2009, 02:55 PM
phaedrus

not to be critical
but you appear to be implementing your own experience/skill over an above the model.

quite clearly if one was to follow the TA signal i.e. get out to 100% cash on 9/1/08 then logically now one should be 100% invested.

meaning we are all optimists at the top and pessimists at the bottom. Human nature.

As i think i've stated before my system is the 13 and 34 week ema.
when these averages cross on the asx and NZX... i will move to 100% invested in my favourites plays, regardless of my own views.
had i practicesed this in reverse in Jan 08, well i'd be hundreds of thousands better off.
i'd have exited aussie on 18/1/08 and nz on 7/12/07


I also use the 13/34 daily......
my system is now
Daily above, weekly below, then up to 50% invested
daily below weekly below, 100% cash
daily above, weekly above 100% invested
daily below, weekly above, 75% invested.

currently its
daily above, weekly below.

Phaedrus
16-05-2009, 08:52 AM
Quite clearly if one was to follow the TA signal i.e. get out to 100% cash on 9/1/08 then logically now one should be 100% invested.No, Footsie, that is not logical at all.
Firstly, the very-long-term indicators like the moving average that signalled "GET OUT" were designed solely to monitor the health of the long bull market. They were fitted specifically to that uptrend with a view to providing us with an objective longterm "Uptrend Healthy/Uptrend Ailing" status. They were never meant to provide re-entry signals after the end of the bull market phase - and indeed they would be totally unsuitable for that purpose.
Secondly, systems do not have to be symmetrical. Just because you used a certain indicator to provide exit signals does not mean that you must necessarily use it for subsequent entries as well.
Thirdly, even if these "exit" indicators had triggered entry signals (they haven't) these would merely permit buying - they would NOT mandate it.
Fourthly, just because buying may be permitted does not necessarily mean that you must immediately move to 100% invested. There is no need for this to be an "all or nothing" situation!



You appear to be implementing your own experience/skill over and above the modelToo right I am. My system purposely leaves room for this. My "Buy" signals merely give permission to buy - they are not an inviolable command. For example, you must have been in a situation where you had money, but couldn't find anything you wanted to buy right then. What is the use of knowledge/experience/skill if your model system is so rigid that it leaves no room for discretion? This is where our systems differ. You explain that :- "My system is the 13 and 34 week ema. When these averages cross on the asx and NZX... I will move to 100% invested in my favourites plays, regardless of my own views." I would not, could not, stick to any system that "compelled" me to be 100% invested regardless of my own views. Each to his own eh?



Had I practised this in Jan 08, I'd be hundreds of thousands better off. I'd have exited aussie on 18/1/08 and nz on 7/12/07It took a crash for me to realise that I needed a system like this, as discussed here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=158969) You won't be caught flat-footed next time, Footsie!

Footsie
17-05-2009, 08:42 PM
"It took a crash for me to realise that I needed a system like this, as discussed here You won't be caught flat-footed next time, Footsie!"

Touche! Phaedrus my friend. Nail on the head.

realistically one had acres of time and in fact the Aug 07 was a clear warning...

All im saying is that i've developed these systems and i must try and stick to them whilst noting that they constantly evolve as i learn more.

I've developed the system because my emotions play tricks on me. eg refusal to be anything other than optimistic at the top and vice versa at the bottom

Phaedrus
18-05-2009, 08:27 AM
I've developed the system because my emotions play tricks on me.It's the same for us all. Total objectivity is of course the aim, but mere mortals cannot hope to fully attain it. Unfortunately the best action from a financial perspective is very often counter-intuitive. Averaging down feels right, for example, just as Selling at a loss doesn't.



I've developed these systems and I must try and stick to them..... For so many people, that is the hard bit!



.......whilst noting that they constantly evolve as I learn more.Footsie, I'm not sure how publicly you want your system to evolve, but I have quite a few suggestions that you might well find helpful. I am happy to post them here or to email them to you privately. If I am able to help you as much as you have helped me, I would be content. Case in point :- I doubled my ETC holding on the strength of your very positive 31/3/09 assessment of this stock. It's good that you bought as well. I am out of ETC now, having sold half at 39 cents (up 75% in 24 days) and the remainder at 44.5 cents (up 100% in 38 days). Bear markets can be hell, can't they!

AMR
01-06-2009, 05:17 PM
Hi Phadreus,

Have the long term indicators (the ones you used to capture the entirety of the bull market) triggered yet?

OldRider
01-06-2009, 07:12 PM
Phaedrus: What is the red line on your chart descending from the peak and apparently ending the caution period?
Many thanks from me as well for your charts, there is still plenty to be learned even in
old age

Phaedrus
01-06-2009, 08:13 PM
Phaedrus, have the long term indicators (the ones you used to capture the entirety of the bull market) triggered yet?No, they haven't. I'm not at all sure that the question is worth asking, though. Those indicators were all specifically tailored to the long bull-market uptrend. They were fitted to it for the express single purpose of detecting any overall market weakness as early as possible. Having triggered a "Sell" at the end of 2007 ("get right out of the market") those same indicators will eventually trigger "Buy" signals, but these will be so slow and so conservative as to be of no real use. What we have now is a downtrend, so we want a new suite of indicators fitted to that. The old indicators used to monitor the long bull market were never meant to double-up as a re-entry system. They could be used for that, of course - it's just that they would do a particularly lousy job.

Phaedrus
01-06-2009, 08:29 PM
Phaedrus: What is the red line on your chart descending from the peak and apparently ending the caution period?
Sorry, I somehow missed labeling that one! It is an ATR (Average True Range) based Trailing Short Stop. ATR stops tend to perform better than those based on simple percentages - in this case for example, a 17% trailing Short Stop gives a rough equivalent, but was slower to trigger, firing at 3640 when the ATR stop triggered at 3480.

Phaedrus
22-11-2009, 07:15 AM
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZSX1122.gif

meesham
22-11-2009, 09:29 AM
Thanks very much Phaedrus for the All Ords and NZSX50 charts. All of my customers are in Australia so I earn $AU, it's looking like I should just leave my money over there!

shambles
22-11-2009, 08:09 PM
great indicator, many thanks phaedrus

COLIN
23-11-2009, 01:12 PM
I knew there was a good reason why I have been gradually switching funds into the Aust market.

bull....
23-11-2009, 01:43 PM
NZX been dreadful performer last 6 mths , opportunity cost by not being in other markets.

Hoop
24-11-2009, 10:04 AM
NZX been dreadful performer last 6 mths , opportunity cost by not being in other markets.

Hmmm... compared to the Aussi market ..yeah true

However the NZX50 looks a lot better if you add the rising kiwi$ into the mix..the All Ords even better:)

troyvdh
24-11-2009, 04:20 PM
Is it just my perception that the value of shares traded in recent days/weeks has been abnormally low...today 65m..yesterday 47m(?).....not sure what it means ...