Winz

[ratkin]

Been great buying over the last week , using opportunistic buy orders have managed to pick up a reasonable stake at an average price of 1.33. On the panic days they are often sold off allowing a sneaky buy order to be matched.

What many people dont seem to realise is that while global markets are going down the WINZ are going up !! . More sharemarkets go down the more our dollar falls , meaning WINZ are worth more.
During the big bull market WINZ underperformed due to the strengthening NZ dollar , now our dollar is falling they make great buying , as downside is limited by the falling dollar.
The upside is if the dollar keeps falling and global equities recover then the value of WINZ could rise fairly quickly.

Thet are currently trading at fair value of 1.41 , but watch what happens on the panic days , they usually dip right down as people wrongly assume they are worth less , only to recover to their true value at the end of the day.
I have feasted enough on these so am quite happy to let somebody else pick up the bargains. Try an order for around 1.34 , you never know your luck

[ratkin]

Up a massive 8 today , you cant say you were not told , the rat strikes again.
Even today the stock was weak , people seem not to realise the potential upside in this as the dollar falls. Great option for those wanting exposure away from the kiwi peso

[Nurg]

The trouble with WIN is that you never know the true net asset value (NAV). AMP release a supposed NAV after 4pm every day but it is sometimes false. AMP are either dishonest or stupid. Case in point:

AMP announced a NAV of $1.52174 on Tue 21 August and $1.4708 the following day, Wed. This was a drop of 3.35%.

But the facts of that 24 hour period were: the US mkt was mixed - S&P 500 up a little, DJIA down a little. FTSE up a little. Nikkei down about .75%. The kiwi fell 1% against USD (0.698 to 0.691), 0.6% against sterling and 1.6% against yen. Overall the currency movements would have shifted the NAV about 1% - UP, as you point out ratkin. Even if you take the worst case scenario, ie, that the US stocks in WIN fell in line with the DJ rather than rising in line with the S&P, the NAV would have gone up about 0.7% - it probably actually went up about 1%. AMP's supposed fall of 3.35% is utter rubbish.

The next day, today, they announce a NAV of $1.48804, a rise of 1.2%. The facts: S&P up 1.2%, FT up 1.8%, Nikkei up 2.6% - overall a rise of about 1.4%. But the kiwi rose about 3% agin US, 2.3% agin sterling and 4.5% agin yen. Overall about a 3% currency movement that would have pulled the NAV DOWN, more than countering the rise of stocks in their native currrencies. Overall about a 1.6% drop in the NAV (3% minus 1.4%). Again, AMP's announcement is nonsense.

ratkin, do you have any explanation? As far as I can see, whether it is stupidity or dishonesty on the part of AMP, they are misleading the market and NZX or Securities Commision or someone should wake up and investigate. I'm sure one could find a possible motive for AMP to be deliberately screwing the scrum.

[ratkin]

Im fairly sure they wouldnt be misleading the market on purpose.

Not sure how delayed the daily figures are , the different time zones of all the markets involved could have something to do with it. Might not all be from the same calander day

[ratkin]

This is what they say in the investment statement

"In order to facilitate trading in WINZ , the manager recognises that investors and the market in general need access to either the index or the NAV value per WINZ
The manager has arranged for the index to be quoted on a two buisness day delay basis and the NAV on a real time basis on reuters page AMPINZ

[Nurg]

The announcement on 23 Aug, said, "Net Asset Value as at 23-August-07". The one on 22 Aug said, "Net Asset Value as at close 22-August-07", and this is the usual form. There is no "two business days delay" there. The investment statement is either talking about some other release or else either the investment statement or the daily announcements are erroneous. Either way, AMP is putting out info that at best is confusing and at worse is false.

thanks for trying to clarify though, ratkin. If you get any more light, do share.

[ratkin]

Might contact them with your question , i too would be interested in the answer

[winner69]

Nurg think some price gouging or sinister activity going on eh .... if so compalin to the authorities

I'm sure it as simple as some pretty blonde sitting down at her PC after lunch and downloading some numbers into her spreadsheet thta tallies up the $s in NZD terms and then divides by the units outstanding

Same process ... same time every day .... covers all the problems with stocks around the world in different currencies and time zones

US stocks are only 56% of the fund anyway so even though how the S&P and the NZD/USD behaves has a large bearing on the overall it is not the full story

Like the Rat says give them a ring ...... you might meet that blonde and get her to show you what she does

[ratkin]

From yesterdays half yearly

WiNZ is designed to passively track the AMP World Index, which is a
customised index comprising 95% by free float-adjusted market capitalisation
of the securities listed on exchanges in the United States, United Kingdom,
Germany, Japan, Canada and Australia and Spain.

From 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2007 the WiNZ gross return was -0.83%, while
the AMP World Index return was -0.77%.


So it does its job in terms of tracking the AMP world index

[GTM 3442]

"Trading Halt of Securities

31 December 2009

NZX Regulation Announcement
AMP Investments' World Index Fund (NS) (WIN)
Trading Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation advises that, at the request of the company, it has placed a trading halt on AMP Investments' World Index Fund (WIN). The trading halt has been placed pending the release of a material announcement.

ENDS "


Not necessarily the best of looks to make the announcement on the 31st December - gives us all a bit of time to speculate. . . . .


Happy New Year.

[Paint it Black]

My speculations ;)

1. Skuldugery in unit pricing
2. Caught in IRDs tax net

If it is there will be alot of upset AMP directors with the AXA takeover in play and annoyed parties who promote passive funds on the NZX. Have to say WIN and TNZ have been spectacularly useless recently with minimal turnover, little SP gain and their high costs. Maybe they are just going to shut WIN down? Can hardly see it as a takeover target! The timing of the announcement is suspicious but I still see they later announced the NTA.

[Balance]

If it is there will be alot of upset AMP directors with the AXA takeover in play and annoyed parties who promote passive funds on the NZX. Have to say WIN and TNZ have been spectacularly useless recently with minimal turnover, little SP gain and their high costs. Maybe they are just going to shut WIN down? Can hardly see it as a takeover target! The timing of the announcement is suspicious but I still see they later announced the NTA.

Agreed.

Those who got in at inception in 1997 (12 years ago) will now just about get 10% return over that time!

Hard to see why this would be wound up? Lovely fees for the manager.

[blackcap]

Agreed.

Those who got in at inception in 1997 (12 years ago) will now just about get 10% return over that time!

Hard to see why this would be wound up? Lovely fees for the manager.


Just to "balance" the argument.... how does this compare versus "active" funds that invest in foreign markets?

[GTM 3442]

GENERAL: WIN: Non-taxable bonus issue processing error

5 January 2010

AMP Investments' World Index Fund (WINZ) - non-taxable bonus issue
processing error

In processing the bonus issue on 30 December 2009 that was announced to the
market on 24 December 2009 an error occurred.

The Manager determined that it was in the best interest of unitholders to
halt trading and re-run the issuing of bonus units to ensure each unitholder
had the correct allocation of units. This has occurred and trading in WINZ
will recommence today.

ENDS



The speculation was much more interesting.

[Balance]

Looks like a cry for attention.

[Balance]

Just to "balance" the argument.... how does this compare versus "active" funds that invest in foreign markets?

Excellent point. It depends on which active fund you use, I guess.

Another comparison would be NZ or Australian market - no contest there. Diversification via a passive fund like Winz does not really work. Its key attraction from memory was tax efficiency.

[blackcap]

Excellent point. It depends on which active fund you use, I guess.

Another comparison would be NZ or Australian market - no contest there. Diversification via a passive fund like Winz does not really work. Its key attraction from memory was tax efficiency.

I would disagree Balance. A comparison like the NZ or Aus market is flawed. Your just lucky if you use this comparison that the Kiwi and Aussie dollars have strenghened during that time. If it had been the other way you would have a different set of results.

I guess you would need to compare it to something like the MSCI world index to get a clear picutre....

[ENP]

What's WINZ like for regular investing?

Is it a good option for saving for a house deposit in 7+ years?

[GTM 3442]

What's WINZ like for regular investing?

Is it a good option for saving for a house deposit in 7+ years?

You've answered your own question. You are saving for a purpose.

Saving means you don't risk capital.

Investing means you accept the risk of capital loss in exchange for the gilded promise of higher returns.

[ENP]

Have looked at how much brokerage it costs to buy shares in the US and UK individually. It's nearly 2%

How many people use WINZ or something similar to gain exposure to these markets? Also how accurately does the WINZ track the Dow Jones?

[macduffy]

Have looked at how much brokerage it costs to buy shares in the US and UK individually. It's nearly 2%

How many people use WINZ or something similar to gain exposure to these markets? Also how accurately does the WINZ track the Dow Jones?

I held WINZ several years ago for the express purpose of getting a bit of overseas equity exposure. Sold them after a few years of indifferent performance but that may have been just markets at the time.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average comprises 30 "leading" USA industrial stocks. Therefore only a very loose relationship with WINZ to the extent that if US equities are doing well then in all probability most other international markets are as well!

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/WinDow420.gif

[CJ]

Phaedrus - a couple of questions

- Is the Dow numbers in NZ$ of US$.
- Is the Winz incl or excl dividends.

Just want to make sure it is a fare comparison.

[Phaedrus]

The Dow is just the Dow Index.
WIN data is from Yahoo Finance - they claim it is "adjusted for dividends and splits" but I am not in a position to verify this.

[ENP]

Looks pretty bad compared to the Dow index. Do you really need exposure outside of NZ and AUS?

[blackcap]

ENP, WIN is not only the Dow. It comprises stocks from all over the world. 700 or so if I remember correctly. So to compare to the DOW is nonsensical. Also that graph above will be misleading as the USD has lost a lot of strengh and the kiwi has appreciated during that time. You need to compare apples with apples

[ENP]

Oh right, yes I didn't take into account the exchange rate. Silly me. So if the exchange rate was the other way round the WINZ would look heaps better?

So do you NEED exposure outside on NZ and AUS or no?

[CJ]

The Dow is just the Dow Index.
WIN data is from Yahoo Finance - they claim it is "adjusted for dividends and splits" but I am not in a position to verify this.Thanks. Winz has been effected by the strenghtening of the NZD. The graph you show is comparing USD returns (Dow) vs NZD returns (Winz). With the volitility in the NZD vs the USD, that is not a fare comparison.

[CJ]

Looks like they are closing WINZ down. It no longer has the tax benefit it use to have and they state the low fund size ($140m) does not justify the management fee.

Considering it continuously traded below NTA, I dont think it will be much of a loss but it is a shame NZ doesn't have enough support for a whole range of index funds. Maybe with international investing so much easier now, the overseas ones are the way to go if you want some diversified overseas exposure.