FBU Chart.

[dumbass]

obv has now fired a buy signal , price has bounced off lower trendline and may give agood long entry if it tests support levels.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/fbu-3.jpg

[Hoop]

Classic deadcat bounce with FBU resuming its downtrend and belgie exiting accordingly. Nice trade tho and back to cash to await the termination of the downtrend. Note the fundimentals behind this: Oz and US not NZ markets (and perhaps accounting spin if gaynor is to be believed). Bottom? Stake in the ground would be 7.20 which would bring P/E and yeilds to a more realist and competitive level.

Yes ...yes trending down but not resuming as it has been in a downtrend for over 4 months...it just recovered from a minicrash to retesting its primary down trend line and each time failing.
OBV buy signal was unconvincing because the indicator although declining I couldn't match up 3 points to confirm a valid trend line to authenticate a buy signal break. Since then in the last 2 weeks from the 17th Aug the OBV has produced a triple top bearish pattern so I will view the later with caution..
The RSI has shown a short term reversal to a sell signal on Wednesday 31st August going south after nudging the 70% overbought level.

All in all this minicrash rebound looks like another near-ending sucker rally The chart has got uglier since Wednesday 31th...however converging trend/support lines will add confirmation early next week.

A very strong support (ex trading range bottom) at around 7.20 to 7.50 Zone....Yep Belg getting out last week and realising those post minicrash profits seems a wise move...and 7.20 seems a key area to watch for now.... atm

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/qwdxxc3v121vq32wb1z.png

[percy]

Bit of life left in the dead cat.?
I thought your $7.20 was a cert.Wrong again.

[Hoop]

Bit of life left in the dead cat.?
I thought your $7.20 was a cert.Wrong again.

The cats nine lives are used up as expected.....$7.20 is nearly here (7.25 atm)..Hmmm where to from here? $7.00 psychic support level ??? or respect for the $7.20 support?
WOW 9.50 to 7.25 in 4 months One hellaofa ski slope with a 9th August crater.

Belg your trigger finger must be twitching by now ..eh???

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Hoop I want them well below $7 before I am interested in buying

[Billy Boy]

Hoop I want them well below $7 before I am interested in buying

You could well get your wish if the Republicians (Tea Party) start playing silly buggers around the 30th Sept

Octpber will be very interesting indeed.
BB
:mellow:

[Billy Boy]

What da ya mean "if" - Of course they will. You need to be silly bugger just to join.
So all cashed up are you Belg....and waiting ??? :D

[percy]

What da ya mean "if" - Of course they will. You need to be silly bugger just to join.
Thank you.That quote made my day.Cracker.!!!!

[winner69]

Sure is. Top of the pyrimid nearly creamed off. Next layer under 7.00!

Belg how the heck do you build a pyramid from the top down ... seems to defy gravity

Might have to get Hoop to knock uo a picture of an upside pyramid

[percy]

$7.85 today.On Stocknessmonster chart SP appears to have broken downtrend,while on yahoo chart is still in down trend.
Hoop would you please give me your opinion.

[winner69]

$7.85 today.On Stocknessmonster chart SP appears to have broken downtrend,while on yahoo chart is still in down trend.
Hoop would you please give me your opinion.

I reckon it went through the downtrend line a few weeks ago when it went thorough 750 on the way up .... did fall back to that trend line but not below it ... and is now quite a way above it

[Hoop]

$7.85 today.On Stocknessmonster chart SP appears to have broken downtrend,while on yahoo chart is still in down trend.
Hoop would you please give me your opinion.

Hi Percy
Yes you are correct ..FBU started to fire TA buy signals late last week...ironically when it went Ex div of 17cps..
I've got to go now... so I'll post a chart later when I get a bit of spare time.

Good investing
Hoop

[percy]

Hi Percy
Yes you are correct ..FBU started to fire TA buy signals late last week...ironically when it went Ex div of 17cps..
I've got to go now... so I'll post a chart later when I get a bit of spare time.

Good investing
Hoop
Thank you for your reply,and i look forward to your chart.

[Hoop]

Thank you for your reply,and i look forward to your chart.

Here's the Chart
"Is this the beginning of another upward swell within this wavy trending pattern??.... or.... since it has broken its primary ascending trend line is this a holding event before the downward trend recommences??

To try to answer that question and whether there has been a trend change, trending TA indicators should be employed.....however life is never easy because trending TA indicators are unreliable in a wavy trading (rectangle) chart formation. For many years FBU was in the TA's dream team it was very easy and reliable but lately FBU has been a bitch and I've elected to stay clear until the dust settles which maybe happening now...maybe!!!. That probably answers Belg's question why I having problems with FBU..not a problem really just avoiding a potential problem.

Anyway, yes some buy signals have fired off.
Winner 69 quote "...I reckon it went through the downtrend line a few weeks ago when it went thorough 750 on the way up .... did fall back to that trend line but not below it ... and is now quite a way above it ...."
yep.. thats where I drew my descending trend line as well. Basically you can draw a trendline where ever you like on a chart....but the more points you can connect the stronger the trend line....Ideally I would have liked my chart to show candlesticks but over a 3 year chart with many other lines it looked a mess...however using a candlestick pattern drawing a trend line through gaps also creates a strong line and it happens that the line Winner and I use runs through a gap as well...so that reinforces the strength that this line has.....

After saying that it may come as a surprise to many of you that I don't hold trend lines in my top 5 favourites. They are unreliable trend turning points and should be used as confirmation of other indicators....often a share price might break a line upward only to follow the trend line down but on the top side of it ...or ..to flat line then go down again......

So the good news first... the other confirming trend indicators on the chart...Bollinger bands can show trend changes..notice how the price is hugging the upper limt line away from the narrowing, this behaviour happens in uptrends...see back to the past when FBU was uptrending and note the similar bollinger band behaviour.
The Twiggs money flow shows increasing buying behaviour and bull market stocks have a positive percentage.
The volume is important...see about the 12 September when the trend line broke upwards with little volume this sends a warning of a potential bull trap and it was.
RSI is uptrending and speaks for itself
The DMI is another one of my favourite change trend indicators. when the greenline goes above the red its a buy signal... the signal strength is measued by the white line and when its low under 15 it deemed unreliable...the sad news is that my DMI blue arrow on the chart should be viewed as very unreliable as the DMI is 12.
The momentum indicator is in default mode but good enough to indicate a buy signal by going positive.

Another favourite of mine is the OBV...it hasn't fired yet...thats a worry as well as the DMI

Resistance lines ...they can be spooky at times and 7.88 and the 8.00 worry me as well.

So should I buy....TA says yes no maybe.......Hmmmm...Tempting at 7.50 but a bit late now... personally I might wait for a better opportunity elsewhere methinks. Patience is a virtue they say.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xkng001q3n9txepskv3.png

[percy]

Hoop,
Thanks for the chart and comments.

[Hoop]

Bugger. ... No stops will save you from that (a 9% fall) ... Hoop's conservative strategy paid off.

Now what to do ... [evil grin while licking wounds].

Sorry to hear that Mate yeah I dodged this bullet but you should see my healed gunshot wounds from the past

...yeah ...what to do if you are in... There is a long term support at 7.02 ..7.00 is the psych support... another small one at 6.98..

[Hoop]

Yeah....one usually expects a dead cat bounce with this gap down event..it has failed to materialise ...so far.... as you say the OZ market will be interesting when it opens....but I think it will be down
I read just now that the Slovak parliament collapsed this morning (our time) their vote was needed for the Euro debt bailout and they rejected it ..so I guess uncertainity will returned to the Global markets again today

[winner69]

Belg not unexpected this huge downgrade is it

Huge cause if you take Crane out of the equation profits down 20% and that's quite a lot eh

Not unexpected cause macros have never been in favour of FBU improving profits at the moment. You rubbished me a while ago when I said all the lead indicators in respect of building activiity in NZ and Australia suggested that no way were they going to increase profits well into next year. The guys inside Fletchers are not dumb and they probably knew this as well ... but have lived in hope that Chch will pull them through. No that has become a long drawn out process we will have a wait a bit longer for them to benefit from that

You also mentioned their PE. One thing here is that the market has never really factored in the significant new shares issued over the last few years (esp the ones from the capital raisings - the ones for buying Crane eps accretive eh?). Shares have gone from 500 mill to about 680 mill now ... and what has happened to profits

[ratkin]

Come on Winner , nobody likes a told you so smartass.
Be nice to Belg :)

[winner69]

Come on Winner , nobody likes a told you so smartass.
Be nice to Belg :)

Belgie will be Ok .... he is big boy now. Just that we often seem to disagree on macros and he is quick enough to tell me I am wrong

Ratkin - one of your comments still holds true - like once you said FBU is a no brainer, after all christchurch needs to be rebuilt

Punters shouldn't be selling on todays announcement - rather they should be looking at buying big time if the price falls another 50 cents or even $1. Just that punters got excited a year ago and bought FBU at 2013 prices

[QOH]

I thought FBU was oversold today, being a glass half full type of girl, couldn't keep my finger off the buy button late afternoon. Hope to be out of them by tomorrow's close..

[winner69]

Wow, FBU is certainly out of favour!

Maybe they should buy an insurance company so they can get stuck into rebuilding Chch ... :)

QOH, hope it isn't hurting too much today ... :(

Aussie market open now so a bit a of a recovery in NZ

[winner69]

See macquaries have reduced their 12 month target price from $10.90 to $7.52 .... waht a joke that $10.90 was eh ... good old analysts for you eh ... but maybe Mr Hudson is young and only palys with models.

[QOH]

Wow, FBU is certainly out of favour!

Maybe they should buy an insurance company so they can get stuck into rebuilding Chch ... :)

QOH, hope it isn't hurting too much today ... :(

No I'm a big girl, as plan A didn't work, thinking on plan B .
Still holding and still think oversold.

[Major von Tempsky]

So, where's Phaedrus latest chart of Fletcher?

When the gross yield % gets up to 8% I could become interested....

How far does the sp need to go down before it becomes the second biggest company on the NZX again....

Never trust in (a) forecasts of tourism earnings/event earnings - always vastly overestimated totally ignoring the mere displacement effect (i.e. a lot of activity that would have happened anyway simply goes elsewhere or hibernates until the crush is over)
(b) forecasts of reconstruction booms ;-)

Interesting to read in today's Press that they are now picking 7.5% economic growth for Canterbury next year and that the decrease in net population due to quakes is only 3,000 or so.
That will soon be made up by other economic growth around Christchurch/Canterbury. Everything outside the CBD and some grotty eastern suburbs is growing gangbusters. There's now a massive parking and traffic flow problem around my area during the week and new buildings going up in all directions. Seems like Fletch has been missing out on these....

[winner69]

How far does the sp need to go down before it becomes the second biggest company on the NZX again....



Methnks you teasing the loyal punters .... it has become the SECOND biggest co onthe NZX again

Needs to close the 50 cents plus gap on the biggest

[winner69]

Stocktakes in the Nerald in this little quote showed how easy it has been to con punters over the last few years - comments re FBU forecasts of making consensus profits -

Translation: "We'll hit the mid-point, somewhat south of what the fanatically pro-FBU analysts have predicted but well north of what the gloomily critical boffins guessed at."

So is Ling all that great - market thinks he is wonderful so the halo effect wins out ... investors have had to front up with heaps of real cash over the last few years to buy things that don't seem to be working out to plan eh ... even the lastest $1 billion splurge isn't going to cover the shortfalls from a depressed local market

Maybe the world will see Ling in a different light in a year or so ... when that halo losses shines less brightly

[POSSUM THE CAT]

FBU down 20cents all ready this morning. How low will it go?

[voltage]

bought some at 6.70 but still in downward trend. Overreaction, perhaps time to buy more.

[Casa del Energia]

Woah, keeps falling away. Must check out my piggy bank and do a little accumulation.
Have you ever had one of those nightmares where you’re falling, falling, falling..? Sweet dreams, Mr Ling.

[Hoop]

Woah, keeps falling away. Must check out my piggy bank and do a little accumulation.
Have you ever had one of those nightmares where you’re falling, falling, falling..? Sweet dreams, Mr Ling.

Nope....had one though..catching falling daggers... lost all my fingers and had to type these posts using my nose.........

[Servaas]

I wonder what increases were awarded to Fletcher management in the last pay round (presumably post June '11 year-end, and which would first appear in the 2012 annual report). Fletcher has grown through Crane, and pay is typically marked to companies of similar size. It would irritate if large increases went through just as the share has dived...

[percy]

Nope....had one though..catching falling daggers... lost all my fingers and had to type these posts using my nose.........

Painful. Great post.!!!! Too true.!!

[winner69]

Oversold at these levels - maybe but i think the ones that really make the FBU shareprice are coming to the realisation that maybe, just maybe, FBU have come of the rails really badly and that things are not going to get that good in the short to medium term

FBU now says that with Crane they are a $10 billion company .... the other day they said they would make about $359m this year (same as last year after 2nd half recovery)

Hells bells just a few years ago (2007) they were a $6 billion company and making $500 million - so $4 billion more sales and less profits

And to achieve that success asked shareholders since 2007 have fronted up with nearly $1.2 billion in cash (new equity) and debt has doubled from $1 billion to $2 billion ... and still making less than 2007

Fundamnetally a company is only worth what wealth it can create - wealth creation being earnings in excess of its cost of capital. FBU over the last 3 years (and again in F12) have performed terrible in this regard - last 3 years less than 9% ROIC and this year even less at about 7%. FBU are not even covering their cost of capital - wealth destruction big time

As such fundamentally and with the outlook they themselves present a good valuation for FBU is their book value - $3.7 billion or 550 odd a share.

Methinks the movers and shakers are doing these sort of sums ... and maybe 550 is where the shareprice is heading ... so even if they are slightly optimistic maybe 630-650 is the new baseline

What would be the picture be if you bought the whole compay at 630 - need $4,2 billion for the shares - add $2 billion of debt and the whole enterprise costs you $6.2 billion .... and this year you might get a $0.5 billion cashflow before capex ..... wouldn't meet FBU's own criteria fro an acquisition ... SO WOULD YOU BUYING AT THESE PRICES?

Ling's halo is tarnished .... methinks he now has a credibility problem with the big instos (movers and shakers) .... he needs an awful lot of good things to go right and pretty soon ... good luck and all that

[Hoop]

Good Post ..Winner
You have answered my question as to why the markets has made FBU (with huge near- future opportunities) enter into a bear cycle...yep..Mr Market sees wealth destruction ...of course.. that could be the reason ..

[Joshuatree]

Hear, hear, thanks from me too Winner, spelling it out.

[macduffy]

Well of course FBU is going through a tough patch at present. House building is depressed in Australia and NZ; the Christchurch re-build is on hold; govts are constrained in their spending for infrastructure. Can't really take a trick in those conditions so I wouldn't be too ready to write off Mr Ling and his management team.

The Crane acquisition looks to the future - it's not to be judged on short term results. FBU will be worth considering again once the SP shows signs of bottoming.

[Casa del Energia]

Nope....had one though..catching falling daggers... lost all my fingers and had to type these posts using my nose.........

Um.. I dodged the bullet. Bought this morning at $6.38. Market at $6.43 at mo. ..... But there always plenty of time for my fingers to get slashed by them daggers.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Break it up the sum of the parts would be more than the company as is

[Fortescue]

Not a regular poster, so hope you don't mind my 10p worth! I've had a quick look at Formica's declared EBITDA since its acquisition on 2/07/07, it's purchase price was NZ$981m (as per F08 accounts):-
y/e 30/6/08 NZ$46m approx (excluding US$10m one-off)
y/e 30/06/09 NZ$60m
y/e 30/06/10 NZ$69m
y/e 30/06/11 NZ$83m
So once capital expenditure and working capital is taken into account free cash flow is likely to be significantly less. Not a pretty picture

[Lizard]

Doesn't history tend to show that the large-cap shares that outperformed and became market darlings in one business cycle will tend to underperform in the next? TEL was a good example of this.

Interestingly, a track back through the accounts shows revenue rising and gross margins only drifting off slightly. Admin and funding costs have generally risen in line with revenue, but the stand-out item is the growth in Selling and Marketing expense. I'm not clear how this figure is made up, but it is now up from 6.7% of revenue in 2006 to 10.6% in 2007 and explains most of the fall in EBIT margin. Presumably it reflects discounts given either to distributors or perhaps on contract pricing? It would be good to know, as might be easier to judge future effect and direction for EBIT margins.

[Lizard]

My rough calcs have FBU value at about $5.90 - $6.24. However, would be keeping a firm eye on likely interest cover as any further deterioration in EBIT could send this into red-light area. For me, it's flashing amber - probably over-cautious given their current low interest rate and use of capital notes, but only one thing worse than getting caught on the wrong side of a debt-call dilution, so I prefer to stay clear.

[winner69]

My rough calcs have FBU value at about $5.90 - $6.24. However, would be keeping a firm eye on likely interest cover as any further deterioration in EBIT could send this into red-light area. For me, it's flashing amber - probably over-cautious given their current low interest rate and use of capital notes, but only one thing worse than getting caught on the wrong side of a debt-call dilution, so I prefer to stay clear.

Did you share this valuation around Lizard ... shareprice fell quite a bit after you posted this ... and nearly down to the top end of your range

[Lizard]

When Lizard posts, the market moves. Actually, he/she was heavily short FBU, and circulated that (faux balanced, negative leaning) analysis to a large hedgefund mailing list. What cunning...

No need to circulate. All good hedge fund managers read and rely on ST for the real analysis. :p

And I'll downramp anything I don't own if it helps my chances in the ST comp (getting desperate with TEN now well off the pace...). :eek2:

[Nevl]

Wonder how long it will take for people to connect the fact that the Govt is expecting to spend $30bill in Christchurch and not $15bill to FBU. I would guess that from 2013 FBU is going to get a fair bit of that. I know they have being beaten up about the downgrade but I am sitting on a nice little profit after buying on the dips and would think that it will start to head back up around 2nd half 2012.

Will keep accumulating under $6.45.

[Arbitrage]

Trending down towards $6 in the next few days. The PE will start to look attractive soon and may be a Buy for the brave.

[ratkin]

Wonder how long it will take for people to connect the fact that the Govt is expecting to spend $30bill in Christchurch and not $15bill to FBU. I would guess that from 2013 FBU is going to get a fair bit of that. I know they have being beaten up about the downgrade but I am sitting on a nice little profit after buying on the dips and would think that it will start to head back up around 2nd half 2012.

Will keep accumulating under $6.45.

Went on the bus tour of the red zone the other night, its starting to look like a giant car park, so mjch empty space waiting to be filled

[Arbitrage]

You have to wonder how much of it will be rebuilt in the next five years and how much FBU will benefit. Not a lot I think. Prior to the quakes, there was a lot of vacancy or low value rentals (eg $2 shops etc) in the four avenues area. I believe the available commercial floor space will contract considerably to become a more compact and focussed cbd.

[GTM 3442]

Went on the bus tour of the red zone the other night, its starting to look like a giant car park, so mjch empty space waiting to be filled

A lot of it will never be filled. Walking round the area near the square a couple of years ago, there was a lot of empty/vacant spaqce in a lot of buildings.

Christchurch did not have a level of commercial activity to fill the centre of town then, so why will it in the future.

Much economic activity had moved out to the suburbs, where it will stay, never returning to the centre of the town.

Think another park the size of Hagley Park to "mop up" the space. New meaning to the phrase "Garden City" ?

So there will be a lot less building and construction than many seem to anticipate.

[percy]

A lot of it will never be filled. Walking round the area near the square a couple of years ago, there was a lot of empty/vacant spaqce in a lot of buildings.

Christchurch did not have a level of commercial activity to fill the centre of town then, so why will it in the future.

Much economic activity had moved out to the suburbs, where it will stay, never returning to the centre of the town.

Think another park the size of Hagley Park to "mop up" the space. New meaning to the phrase "Garden City" ?

So there will be a lot less building and construction than many seem to anticipate.



Although I agree with you,I was surprised at how many people there were in Cashal Mall at 10.30 am on Monday morning.I brought a shirt on special at Ballantynes.I thought Scorpio books "store" was too small and had too little stock.I spoke to a friend who is a book rep,and he told me the reason they had so little stock was because they had sold it during the weekend,!!!!,and he could not get into the store on the saturday afternoon.In The Press this morning they stated Smiths City were overrun with customers yesterday when they reopened their store.

[Arbitrage]

Yes Percy, I think the market is showing that there is insufficient commercial space in the cbd at the moment. This will expand over the next few years but unlikely to the extent of the previous floorspace. How much FBU will contribute is questionable when containers suffice as shop space! Maybe the salvors of the Rena could contribute..?

[GTM 3442]

Maybe the construction work will occur in other SI centres, as the drift from Christchurch continues, and becomes permanent ?

[percy]

Maybe the construction work will occur in other SI centres, as the drift from Christchurch continues, and becomes permanent ?
My daughter commutes to Timaru each week as her firm lost their building in Victoria street.They are moving back to ChCh in the next 6 weeks.With so many schools having reduced school rolls there will be a lot of teachers out of work next year,which will mean they will seek jobs elsewhere.New buildings in town will want rents to give a return on capital,or rebuild costs.I think these "new" rentals will make attracting tenants very difficult.

[Soolaimon]

Not shorting! Topping up for the long haul......

[Hoop]

Currently at 5.94 down 6 (-1%)... Depth support at 5.90

Technically the next line of defense in this downtrend is the 5.80 support line.
No buy signals long term ...no break in sight of this downward trend so why's the hurry to average down Soolaimon?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU21112011.png

[percy]

Hoop,
thank you for your excellent chart.

[h2so4]

What are folks thoughts on FBU abilityto maintain it's current dividend payout rate into the future? I myself are doubtful on that given the economic challenges and lack of demand facing building industry at the moment. I don't know if even the rebuild of Christchurch will be enough to make up for that? So does this all mean then that the company on fundamentals is overpriced, even at today's sharemarket price? I would really appreciate other people's thoughts on that.

It is selling at a little over equity value, somewhere around the $4 billion mark. Does this sound like a bargain? IMO No!

FBU has $5.7 billion invested capital and returned a net profit of $291m in 2011. That is a 5% return, but they spent $212m on cap ex.

So not much of a return if you take capital expenses into account, and if you make adjustments for working capital you are into negative cashflow or cash burn.

Should they continue paying a dividend, that's up to management but I guess they will find the cash somewhere???????????

Overpriced? More than likely

[macduffy]

I don't expect FBU to maintain it's current dividend but looking further down the track I expect to see some attractive buying opportunities.

From a TA perspective, it's still very much a no-no. Steep SP downtrend; relative strength about as bad as it gets - which to me is a signal to watch out for the inevitable turnaround. It's not happening now but it will happen.

[macduffy]

I'm sure they do.

I was looking at FBU as a prospective "long".

[peat]

Yes Percy, I think the market is showing that there is insufficient commercial space in the cbd at the moment.
Its very hard to lease commercial around Chch at the moment. Or thats what the businesses I talk to are saying anyway. Prices per sq m and lease lengths are all being forced up. Some are even leasing space before its built.

[_Michael]

It is selling at a little over equity value, somewhere around the $4 billion mark. Does this sound like a bargain? IMO No!

FBU has $5.7 billion invested capital and returned a net profit of $291m in 2011. That is a 5% return, but they spent $212m on cap ex.

So not much of a return if you take capital expenses into account, and if you make adjustments for working capital you are into negative cashflow or cash burn.

Should they continue paying a dividend, that's up to management but I guess they will find the cash somewhere???????????

Overpriced? More than likely

At last a rational view on FBU - and maybe the market working out that the emporer has been wearing no clothes for a few years now!

I would add one more thing to the post above.

Does nobody seem to care that FBU has developed a very worrying habit of:

MASSIVE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE...

mainly on businesses and projects that later down the track have

MASSIVE IMPAIRMENTS BELOW THE "NORMALISED PROFIT" FIGURE

This is a major concern and started since the reins were passed to JL.

It seems the trend for FBU is capitalise a significant portion of their expenses - i.e. tuck them away in the balance sheet where they don't mess with the nice "normalised profit" figure. Then write them down where again they conveniently appear below the "normalised profit" figure.

So they are telling us (we the mainly grey haired, naive and disconnected investors) that all these costs that they are capitalising and then later writing down are not part of the "normal" operations. The problem is they are because they are destroying shareholder wealth through lowering return on capital and burning money on things that vaporise into thin air.

VERY MUCH PART OF "NORMAL" OPERATIONS IF YOU ASK ME!?

The interesting thing is that unlike some of the other companies that legitimately "normalise" earnings, FBU normal always stripping out negatives. (When was the last time you read headline "FBU posts gain on sale/revaluation of asset" and see them strip that out of "normal" earnings??

Entertainment!

[percy]

Its very hard to lease commercial around Chch at the moment. Or thats what the businesses I talk to are saying anyway. Prices per sq m and lease lengths are all being forced up. Some are even leasing space before its built.

Very true.I heard the office blocks in Lincoln road where PDL were,were fully leased within hours of the first quake.They were sitting empty and looked as though they would remain empty for a number of years.And landlords are forcing long leases.
Shops.where you had a tennant paying a few thousand a year in rent in older buildings in High street or Sydenham,even a cheaply built tilt slab new building will cost over $400,000 and I can not see tenants paying $40,000 plus a year in rent if there are not the customers.
Riccarton,Hornby and northlands malls are the winners.

[winner69]

CBA analyst reckons FBU will soon join the ASX100 (with BBG out) .... that will be good

Isn't it amazing that the share price will go up all because funds will need to buy some shares .... irrespective of how badly it is performing

No wonder the world is in the state it is today ... all this index tracking investment and balanced portfolios and Sharpe Ratios seems to be a race to the bottom ... and of course those greedy people in the finance industry get rich in the process at the expense of the poor guy putting a few bob a wek into his super fund

[macduffy]

I understand that the Australian Financial Review of 17 November contained an article on FBU. Apparently, CEO Jonathon Ling told the AFR that November had started strongly for the company; that he was very confident that half year profit guidance would be met; and fairly confident about the full year result. These comments don't appear to have been reported in the NZ press, or at least I havn't seen them.

Is anyone with access to the AFR able to confirm this?

[winner69]

Was essentially a review of the AGM McDuffy and the reporter quaoted what Ling had told him ... nothing new really ... as they say the first 2 weeks of November doesn't make a summer or something like that ... the story started off saying (as was said in Lings speech) they had re-iterated guidance that relies on a strong second half, but has forecast no material improvement in conditions for the first half of this year.

Would ahve to believe that wouldn't he .... if it doesn't come true he and the shareprice will be crucified ... still think he's brave saying that the 2nd half will see a sudden turn around after what appears to be a disaster of first half

Never mind .... all those Aussie fundies will need to buy up big when FBU gets on the ASX100

[macduffy]

Thanks, winner.

Seems that the AFR took a rather more positive view than the local (NZ) media. We need to remind ourselves that FBU is an extremely cyclical stock and that the cycle is at bottom - or so we hope. They may be criticised for past purchases - hindsight provides such a clear view! - but opportunities such as Crane Group don't occur when times are good, or if they do, the cost rises accordingly. I'm waiting for the inevitable turnaround in the SP to add a few to my longterm portfolio.

[Lizard]

We need to remind ourselves that FBU is an extremely cyclical stock and that the cycle is at bottom - or so we hope.

Brave call to say that the cycle is at bottom.

I would have thought considerable lag between Europe sovereign debt crisis and Fletcher Building share price... especially if we find they borrowed a bit more than was wise. Personally, I'm still hoping they'll get to a "3" in front of the price so that I can get excited, but we will see. I can't see me buying until the next result is out of the way... and after that, I may well repeat that phrase.

But then I've always been too cheapskate when it comes to buying larger-cap stocks, so not the person to ask advice from... though apparently (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3675-FPH-............-TA-and-FA-meet&p=135593&viewfull=1#post135593) I did once make the "crazy" statement that FPH was only worth $2.60... might be time to look at that again!

[Halebop]

Brave call to say that the cycle is at bottom.

Ditto. I'd be very surprised if Australia in particular was at the bottom of the cycle.

[Major von Tempsky]

I'm curious about this "excellent" (Percy) chart by Hoop.

"Currently at 5.94 down 6 (-1%)... Depth support at 5.90

Technically the next line of defense in this downtrend is the 5.80 support line.
No buy signals long term ...no break in sight of this downward trend".

What did "Depth support at 5.90" imply? It's now at $5.82 and dropped through 5.90 unimpeded.

"Technically the next line of defense in this downtrend is the 5.80 support line".

Presumably it will drop through this this afternoon, unimpeded.

What are you supposed to do with it? The most successful investors would be those who sold immediately rather than waiting for 5.90 or 5.80.

If you use "Depth" after entering FBU in the Direct Brokers users website then you can see what the support levels are in terms of numbers of bidders and number of shares they want.

Besides which the depth data is dynamic not static like the "excellent" chart. How do you know the chart has been successful as distinct from an illustration that didn't actually help?

Nor does the chart have any reference to dividend yield percent or likely dividend yield percent which is what I use for successful buy and sell signals.

P.S. I bought 2,400 Chorus at 321 this morning without using a chart :-0

P.P.S. I have a friend who bought FBU at $12 on Forsyth Barr's recommendation. He refuses to talk about it!

[percy]

Your friend will find it well worth the effort to spend some time finding out more from charts,Save himself a lot of money, and may enjoy talking about shares.There was a major sell signal in late October 2009 when FBU shares were $12.

[Hoop]

I'm curious about this "excellent" (Percy) chart by Hoop.

"Currently at 5.94 down 6 (-1%)... Depth support at 5.90

Technically the next line of defense in this downtrend is the 5.80 support line.
No buy signals long term ...no break in sight of this downward trend".

What did "Depth support at 5.90" imply? It's now at $5.82 and dropped through 5.90 unimpeded.

"Technically the next line of defense in this downtrend is the 5.80 support line".

Presumably it will drop through this this afternoon, unimpeded.

What are you supposed to do with it? The most successful investors would be those who sold immediately rather than waiting for 5.90 or 5.80.

If you use "Depth" after entering FBU in the Direct Brokers users website then you can see what the support levels are in terms of numbers of bidders and number of shares they want.

Besides which the depth data is dynamic not static like the "excellent" chart. How do you know the chart has been successful as distinct from an illustration that didn't actually help?

Nor does the chart have any reference to dividend yield percent or likely dividend yield percent which is what I use for successful buy and sell signals.

P.S. I bought 2,400 Chorus at 321 this morning without using a chart :-0

P.P.S. I have a friend who bought FBU at $12 on Forsyth Barr's recommendation. He refuses to talk about it!

Hi MVT just to clarify some points you mention (in brown)
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...........................................

I'm curious about this "excellent" (Percy) chart by Hoop. Thank you for those ""kind"" words

"Currently at 5.94 down 6 (-1%)... Depth support at 5.90 Ummmm...no wrong 5.84 and it successfully tested its 5.80 support around noon at found some buy confidence strength to be at 5.86 atm..will it go below 5.80? tomorrow?.. perhaps who knows. At the time of my post on Tuesday there was a hint of support at 5.90 This was not chart related this was noticed by using Depth on the DB website. I often look at the Depth especially around my chart supports it can show you some sort of strength although it can be very variable and wax and wane very quickly. ATM the Depth shows that the 5.80 chart support is very weak even though it was successfully defended at noon. As it is a variable the strength may increase who knows?

Technically the next line of defense in this down trend is the 5.80 support line. Yes correct
No buy signals long term ...no break in sight of this downward trend". Exactly true...buying now and having found the bottom is against the odds big time. Buying on hope that you are near the bottom is risky business you may be jumping in to a share that may stay down trending for months....There's no hurry in buying now why not wait?..as the down trend keeps going obvious the risk of entering FBU will diminish Instead of using TA buy signals you could opt for risk V reward strategy with out of date finance data and hope there are no future downgrade surprises...I find investing with 70+% success using TA buy signals is a better investing option...don't you??

What did "Depth support at 5.90" imply? It's now at $5.82 and dropped through 5.90 unimpeded. The 5.90 depth implied that at 10.15am on the 22nd November a little bit of buyer support occurred at 5.90 which was not evident on the charts...Was this a birth of a new support?...New supports are born and eventually these show up on charts at a later stage ....however that 5.90 depth support vapourised soon after....so yes it turned out to be a non-event....but at least we are aware that supports can be born

"Technically the next line of defense in this down trend is the 5.80 support line". Yes

Presumably it will drop through this afternoon, unimpeded. Possibly this 5.80 support as at 2.18pm is non-existent depth-wise but the good news is there is support gathering around 5.84/ 5.85 though...Any more bad news today or buyer dry up will see that 5.80 support busted. The down trend applies downward buying momentum pressure so there's a good chance theoritically that 5.80 support at its weak state will fail in the near term is no momentum returns.

What are you supposed to do with it? The most successful investors would be those who sold immediately rather than waiting for 5.90 or 5.80. Exactly... the successful TA investor would have sold out at 8.50 trendline/support/and a whole raft of other sell signals breaks....The successful TA investor would now be waiting to buy back in waiting for the buy signals a bounce of a support and break through the next resistance point usually fires off a heap of buy signals..Watching these charts every day waiting tries your patience but if you are disciplined and wait you will be rewarded eventually.TA discipline does not use "buy and hope because the share looks cheap" strategy.

If you use "Depth" after entering FBU in the Direct Brokers users website then you can see what the support levels are in terms of numbers of bidders and number of shares they want. yep that's right

Besides which the depth data is dynamic not static like the "excellent" chart. How do you know the chart has been successful as distinct from an illustration that didn't actually help? It's like this MVT... in real life if a discipline you don't like exists it wont actually help you...you have to have confidence in the disciplines you use.. OK it seems TA doesn't work for you... that OK... use an investor discipline you are confident with and make your money that way...but TA works extremely well for me :D and it seems it worked very well for Phaedrus as well. My ""excellent'" chart shows past support level it is recorded history often those supports happen again ...but yes it is static in a variable world and new supports are born and old supports can die..Remember MVT TA is not a crystal ball it has never pretended to be one ..TA only shows you the past up until this present moment in time I can not foresee the future but trending charts behaviour can offer better chances of sucess than just using emotional feeling.

Nor does the chart have any reference to dividend yield percent or likely dividend yield percent which is what I use for successful buy and sell signals.

Yep true...different disciplinces use different factors ..I have no qualms about that....Remember I use to be a strict Fundie and a long term investor from 1973- 1998 using those methods you outline.

P.S. I bought 2,400 Chorus at 321 this morning without using a chart :-0
:D...Yep sometimes TA is useless...No trading data = No TA.....Yes I did my Fundamental analysis on TEL/Chorus as well. MVT I wish you the best of luck with Chorus I hope it is another Mainfreight for you
Remember most TA people use FA as well..I also use a risk v reward variant...I jumped and bought up large during the August minicrash most people thought I was mad including some TA experts.....I sold a few days later for rather handsome profit.

P.P.S. I have a friend who bought FBU at $12 on Forsyth Barr's recommendation. He refuses to talk about it! ...Hmmm should have listened to Phaedrus (his expert advice was free) and used his TA investor discipline instead..huh?;)

Cheers and good investing

[Major von Tempsky]

Ok thanks for that Hoop - although you seem to be saying that logically there shouldn't be any FBU shareholders left - they would have sold out ages ago when your chart told them to.

But lets reduce it to one easily understood situation/question.

Say for arguments sake that the chart shows resistance at 5.84 as you say.

You then log into Direct Broking and type in FBU and then switch "Quote" to "Depth".

Say it then says there are 2 buyers looking for a total 1,000 shares at 5.84 but at 5.82 there are 20 buyers looking for 1,000,000 shares.

Surely the support/resistance is therefore 5.82 and not 5.84 as the chart shows?

Any intelligent punter will look at depth first second and last and disregard what the chart says the resistance is at.

Besides which you can get constantly updated depth info but there's no one putting out charts every few minutes.

[Hoop]

Ok thanks for that Hoop - although you seem to be saying that logically there shouldn't be any FBU shareholders left - they would have sold out ages ago when your chart told them to...Nope wrong.There are very short to medium term TA investors which all use different indicator frequencies..very rarely do all TA investors receive a triggered buy/sell signal at the same time. My charts as with Phaedrus charts use mostly the simple default version with short/medium investor in mind....but say theoritically that if every investor used TA and they all received a sell signal at the same time then mass selling with a rapid price drop would have already happened due probably to an adverse event... sellers would greatly out number buyers so the shareprice rapidly drops and the slow TA investors get stuck with their shares. A possible dead cat bounce would result at some point ...Human survivial intincts show up on charts....greed is one shown by Support lines (areas that some investors think the shares have got too cheap and will commit to buy in) Humans are herd animals thereby creating buy and sell points at certain price levels unless irrationality takes over e.g panic followed by stampede to the exits (capitulation)...but as usual at some point on the way down to zero sellers would disappear buyer demand would return thereby triggering TA indicator buy signals who knows at what price maybe 5.80 maybe 4.80 in FBU case.......TA just measures trading history and that trading behaviour become noticeable visibly on a chart. Human Naure is repeatious and therefore chartists see these repeating trading formations and can statistically derive an outcome.

But lets reduce it to one easily understood situation/question.

Say for arguments sake that the chart shows resistance at 5.84 as you say.

You then log into Direct Broking and type in FBU and then switch "Quote" to "Depth".

Say it then says there are 2 buyers looking for a total 1,000 shares at 5.84 but at 5.82 there are 20 buyers looking for 1,000,000 shares.

Surely the support/resistance is therefore 5.82 and not 5.84 as the chart shows? Already debated this MVT ..lets refresh...Past supports waxes and wanes in strength new supports can be born old past supports die...by the way that 5.90 is now looking like a resistance point..eh
Charts show history so they can only see past supports

Any intelligent punter will look at depth first second and last and disregard what the chart says the resistance is at. Thats not intellegent

Besides which you can get constantly updated depth info but there's no one putting out charts every few minutes. Yes there is ..ask any day trader ...not few minutes either ..but in seconds.

[percy]

And let us not forget the traders who play around with depth.I know buying or selling I do not always show my hand.

[macduffy]

There's probably more than one reason for this:

- Better tone to international markets in recent days - rightly or wrongly!

- post election relief rally? Market sees one less "unknown" in the mix.

- Yes, we'd be deluding ourselves to think that everyone in the market is equally well informed.

- FBU is one of our biggest and most heavily traded stocks. Easier to get into and out of than most so it attracts professionals and is subject to big movements as the market mood changes.

How's that for starters?

[Hoop]

Thanks for that, belgarion. I don't dismiss charting as a useful tool when it comes to investing in the share market. I remember all to well a New Zealand chartist who wrote The A letter who predicted the 87 sharemarket crash about 2 months before it happened. Everybody laughed at him. Trouble was he was right, everybody else was wrong! Do you have a good resource you can recommend for a newbie on charting?

Quote from Belg says it in a nutshell ".....Note also that the 20 day MA over the last one year (1Y) shows that FBU has been bouncing just under the 20 DMA with brief bouts of exhubriance about it .... but the down trend is very clear......."

Using short term indicators e.g sma 20 you will get more buy and sell signals.... for the medium to longer term investors the chart indicator defaults are usually set to cater for those investors but confusion often occurs with the lesser experienced as there are so many indicators one can use. First of all determine which market cycle FBU is in...For FBU its in a bear cycle therefore expect sucker rallies to test and occasionally break resistances triggering off some buy signals for the short to medium term TA indicators..is this latest rally a sucker type? chances are it is.
Buying in at 6.36 is taking on greater risk, even though it broke through 630 Resistance there are more resistances close by (MA50 and the resumed downtrend line). Always expect retests (bounces,pull backs and throw backs) to major lines at the end of a fall.
David..when starting to learn charting..it is very difficult to read charts correctly and often chart patterns are not picked up. Drawing simple lines are a good starting point and can be rather spooky at times with their accuracy. Get a free charting program and start drawing lines.. it is a lot of fun . As you get used to looking at charts every day you will begin to see formations and events you didn't see before..this takes time so be patient. I recommend Colin Twiggs Incrediblecharts (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free-charting_software/free_download.php) the basic chart program is free but it still has a good range of indicators.When you download you get a free 30 day trial of the premium if you don't keep with the premium it will revert to the free basic chart program after 30 days Colin's site has an excellent learning section in it (one of the best around)..He also has newsletters with simple updated index charts
.
There are a couple of must have books if you become a keen TA. Have a search on ST as Phaedrus gave an extensive list of books and sites a couple of years back.
Remember not to become too complicated and use too many indicators at once....how to pick which indicator (the right tool for the job) can be difficult...the experts make it seem so simple as Phaedrus posted charts did.

Anyway FBU is a watch for me it seems to have strengthened a bit after its battering...remember it could be a sucker rally and also remember that even after these solid rises FBU is still technically broken. As Belg says its still in a downtrend.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU02122011A.png

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU02122011.png

[winner69]

So quite a bit below 600 now .... back to the price it was in early 2005

If nothing else shows how stupid (irrational) the markets were in 2005-2008 when all stock prices ballooned ... was FBU ever worth something in excss of $12 ... no

Gradually drifiting down to an acceptable valuation methinks .... but prob the likes of Belg will now be jumping in to keep the price up a bit longer

[Major von Tempsky]

Hmmm, but looking at the Depth table of who wants how many shares at the moment, there are two major "resistance" points.

There's 7 buyers want 16,484 shares at $5.75 and there's 2 buyers want 22,000 at $5.50.

Surely that's more valuable info than the chart if you are looking to sell or buy more than derisory hobby amounts?

[CJ]

I'm back in ... Hoop me ol' mate ... Am I jumping the gun again? ...Can you explain why.

Disclosure: Been holding on for dear life for too long and getting impatient with the large swings (downfall of being a buy and hold)

[Hoop]

I'm back in ... Hoop me ol' mate ... Am I jumping the gun again? ...

Nah...too late......:)

It all depends on what type investor you are....Belg. Jumping in at a major support 5.80 with stops just below and riding the price up would be a bit of you wouldn't it??

OK,the scenario atm... we had a positive move off 5.80 lately and the million $$ question one has to ask themselves is..."is this upward price momentum sustainable this time?" Using this question, buying at 6.25 seems riskier than buying in at 5.80 when indicator signals are firing only luke warm buy signals and there is a large resistance zone in the way upwards at (6.28-6.45).
The break out of the descending triangle didn't happen it exited upwards out of the end of the triangle so no upward theoretical pressure here (as happens with a normal breakout before the end). The breaking of trendlines are not always something to cheer about unless it follows other buy signals or upward momentum pressure. The only positive sign was that at the trendline/5.80 major support conjunction the share price moved upwards and didn't break downwards so there is an absence of theoretical downward pressure
Looking at the candlesticks makes one wary. After seeing buying (upward) pressure for 3 days (17th -19th), Friday's close after a gap up at opening followed by price going nowhere (1% spread) and a weaker close to be 1cent lower than the opening but up 4c at 6.28 shows buyer/seller indecision and buyer exhaustion Luckly the World markets held up Friday night (NZ time) so it is less likely to see an evening star candlestick pattern (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestic k_bearish_#evening_star) completed which is a bearish reversal pattern..but it pays to watch Monday's FBU price just in case seller pressure takes the price back down and thus creating an evening star.

If FBU does respect the fuzzy (6.28 - 6.45) resistance zone area then we see a 5.80 -6.30?/6.40 trading range formation being created for the meantime. By late February / March, if there is an established 5.80/6.40 trading range formation then the old primary trendline may come into play with extra theoretical downward pressure....therefore if buying pressure causes an upward breakout at this point in time it would be regarded as going against the downward pressure therefore regarded as a significantly bullish event. A lack of buyers however would see the downward pressure testing that 5.80 major support area and the 5.50 below it. (belg's wish point;))

FBU is still in a cyclic bear market cycle so in Market Theory any rally must be viewed as a sucker rally and investors should be using Bear Market Strategies unless otherwise proved (higher highs higher lows).....

Assumption only....presuming 5.80 is a possible bottom a FBU bull market cycle beginning "could" be after 6.60/6.80 + old primary trend break + revisiting the MA200 confirmations...this event is still some distance away.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU20012012.png

[Hoop]

''''''Assumption only....presuming 5.80 is a possible bottom a FBU bull market cycle beginning "could" be after 6.60/6.80 + old primary trend break + revisiting the MA200 confirmations...this event is still some distance away.''''' A lot closer now!!

After my post those conservative orange alerted arrows went blue.
Today FBU is testing the next 665-667 resistance level....it's having a great run.

Disc: don't hold any FBU

[Lizard]

Okay, so they have increased debt in first half and now running at interest cover of only 3.8. Receivables have fallen, yet free cashflow is negative and last dividend paid for out of more borrowing. They are forecasting a similar NPAT before unusuals in second half, but more unusuals (Laminex restructuring). They are also forecasting increased capex, with $100m for acquisitions and $70m for growth - i.e. would suggest cashflows to worsen in second half. Yet, they chose to increase the div. What did I miss?

(Broker report seemed happy enough though)

[4be]

Okay, so they have increased debt in first half and now running at interest cover of only 3.8. Receivables have fallen, yet free cashflow is negative and last dividend paid for out of more borrowing. They are forecasting a similar NPAT before unusuals in second half, but more unusuals (Laminex restructuring). They are also forecasting increased capex, with $100m for acquisitions and $70m for growth - i.e. would suggest cashflows to worsen in second half. Yet, they chose to increase the div. What did I miss?

(Broker report seemed happy enough though)

Hi Liz,

How did you work out the FCF from the presentation? What slide?
Ive got FCF forumla = EBIT (1-.3)+ D&A + change in net working capital - CAPEX

Cheers
4be

[winner69]

Page 8 here
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/153551.pdf

Operating cash flow $129m less capex of $147m

[4be]

Page 8 here
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/153551.pdf

Operating cash flow $129m less capex of $147m

Thanks W69

[winner69]

Pretty much my view too as the delays have allowed competitors plenty of time to prepare.

The preso quotes 30,000 full scope repairs underway or in progress

Somebody needs to ask 1) how many have been completed ..... and 2) how many have not even started

the answer to 1) is not many .... the answer to 2) is many ........ thats good for FBU .... al that work still to be done ..... but unrest is mounting from the poor souls of Chch and as Belg says others are getting prepared to take over these jobs if allowed

[Halebop]

The preso quotes 30,000 full scope repairs underway or in progress

Somebody needs to ask 1) how many have been completed ..... and 2) how many have not even started

the answer to 1) is not many .... the answer to 2) is many ........ thats good for FBU .... al that work still to be done ..... but unrest is mounting from the poor souls of Chch and as Belg says others are getting prepared to take over these jobs if allowed

How many have been completed: Not Many except minor category repairs
How many have not started: Most of them (Albeit a good number have been been specified & estimated)

Risks:
Around 85% of remaining Business Interruption covers will expire this month. Some business will look at the expected delays, inconvenience, higher operating costs and consequently close or move.
Where businesses close or move, some people will also move (if the earthquakes weren't enough to prompt this action!)
Another major quake will require a fresh round of estimating and geotech surveys, delaying repairs and rebuilds again
Insurance companies would like to cash settle in a good number of cases and where the client is agreeable - so even if the client opts to repair/rebuild - cash in hand means project managers like Fletcher might not get a look in.

[peat]

Around 85% of remaining Business Interruption covers will expire this month.
Its higher than that.
Hardly anyone has more than 12 months indemnity period.

[Halebop]

Its higher than that.
Hardly anyone has more than 12 months indemnity period.

I've seen pretty good data on this. The balance either do have more than 12 months (typically just 18 or 24 months though) or they had their BI cover reinstated and re-triggered by a subsequent event.

[Hoop]

Uptrend looks pretty established ...

Yes agree Belg it seems in hindsight 5.80 was the bottom and once FBU broke through that band of resistance lines 6.60/6.80 it created a primary bull tide (bull market cycle).
With any stocks in a bull market cycle you have to be in to win.
.
.......so I got in :D :D :D

[macduffy]

News on Australian building approvals doesn't bode well for FBU.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/sun-setting-on-new-houses-20120402-1w8rk.html

[Hoop]

.......so I got in :D :) :( :mad ;: :confused: :mad ;: :mad ;: ....caught in a bull trap:p :p

[forest]

Last month their was an annoucment that FBU will get an increased weighting in the NZX indexes, I recall this would be in June or July. I am wondering when index funds are likely to increase their FBU weightings. Would that be after June or July, or before in anticipation?

Cheers Forest.

[Under Surveillance]

FBU's weighting goes up solely because others - such as CEN, AIA and SKT - come down. FBU's free float market cap doesn't change because of the new weightings (but will change to reflect the drop or rise in it's own price meantime).

[forest]

FBU's weighting goes up solely because others - such as CEN, AIA and SKT - come down. FBU's free float market cap doesn't change because of the new weightings (but will change to reflect the drop or rise in it's own price meantime). Under S

I understand this but the increased weighting should still at some point make index funds add FBU to their portfolio to get FBU to the updated weightings. My question is when that is likely to be?

[Under Surveillance]

FBU's weighting goes up solely because others - such as CEN, AIA and SKT - come down. FBU's free float market cap doesn't change because of the new weightings (but will change to reflect the drop or rise in it's own price meantime). Under S

I understand this but the increased weighting should still at some point make index funds add FBU to their portfolio to get FBU to the updated weightings. My question is when that is likely to be?

You don't understand.
The NZX release of 19 March showed that the free float market cap of FBU under the current rules, $4.513 billion, would remain as $4.513 billion under the new rules (assuming a constant share price). Index funds will not have to buy more. If they do buy more their funds will be overweight FBU compared to the NZX 50.

[winner69]

You don't understand.
The NZX release of 19 March showed that the free float market cap of FBU under the current rules, $4.513 billion, would remain as $4.513 billion under the new rules (assuming a constant share price). Index funds will not have to buy more. If they do buy more their funds will be overweight FBU compared to the NZX 50.

That $4.513 billion is now 11.54% of the index and even though it stays at $4,513 billion it becomes 12.54% of the index .... and forest is saying for every $1000 a fund has invested in line with the NZX index they will need another $10 worth of FBU shares if they are to maintain the same weightings

Hell .... what do I know anyway .... maybe we both wrong now

[Under Surveillance]

[QUOTE=winner69;371842]That $4.513 billion is now 11.54% of the index and even though it stays at $4,513 billion it becomes 12.54% of the index .... and forest is saying for every $1000 a fund has invested in line with the NZX index they will need another $10 worth of FBU shares if they are to maintain the same weightings

Hell .... what do I know anyway .... maybe we both wrong now[/QUOTE
FBU goes from 11.54% of $39.13 billion, $4.513 billion, to 12.54% of $35.98 billion, also $4.513 billion.

[winner69]

[QUOTE=winner69;371842]That $4.513 billion is now 11.54% of the index and even though it stays at $4,513 billion it becomes 12.54% of the index .... and forest is saying for every $1000 a fund has invested in line with the NZX index they will need another $10 worth of FBU shares if they are to maintain the same weightings

Hell .... what do I know anyway .... maybe we both wrong now[/QUOTE
FBU goes from 11.54% of $39.13 billion, $4.513 billion, to 12.54% of $35.98 billion, also $4.513 billion.

yep ... understand so far .... but don't a fund who hugs the index need to buy a few more FBU .... isn't that where ypu and forest seem to disagree

[forest]

Thanks Winner, you're explaining this better then I did.

By my calculation (assuming share prices of the index funds stay the same) the index hugging funds will be buying the following:

New weighting is 8.6% higher than previous (12.54% compared 11.54%), therefore every $1000 FBU shares an index hugging fund has now, the fund has to buy another $86 worth of FBU.

My original question was when are they likely to purchase those extra shares?
I guess what I am really trying to work out, what influence this will have on the share price?

[macduffy]

winner and forest have it right, IMO.

Index funds will buy FBU and sell the others to keep their weightings in line with the new index weightings. When individual fund managers actually do this will depend on their readings of the market. No-one's going to be exactly "correctly" weighted on D Day.

[CJ]

winner and forest have it right, IMO.

Index funds will buy FBU and sell the others to keep their weightings in line with the new index weightings. When individual fund managers actually do this will depend on their readings of the market. No-one's going to be exactly "correctly" weighted on D Day.There are index funds that have a mandate to follow the index. Their rules will specify when they have to buy.

Other funds just tend to follow the index as they dont want to perform worse than the index. While they tend to follow, they will try and time it to avoid buying into an artificial upswing.

[modandm]

all this is true - however none of it is a reason to buy sell or hold FBU. What do individuals think of the prospects of FBU going forward and is the share a buy or sell? Thats the sort of discussion I would like to hear.

Incidently from my experience many active fund managers have an overweight position on FBU - and like the stock as a cyclical. Many have been burnt over the past 6-9months. Whether now is too early to buy is interesting thought. For me it is too early but I do like the stock as a cyclical and will look to enter down the track.

[forest]

Just one more question about this rerating in the index.

Is it possible to find out what persentage of FBU is owned by funds? Then its easier to quantify how much or little effect this rerating has.

[CJ]

Just one more question about this rerating in the index.

Is it possible to find out what persentage of FBU is owned by funds? Then its easier to quantify how much or little effect this rerating has.
I would think the effect will be minimal.

CEN has already been hammered for its weighting being halved so it should already be factored into price.

the index effect is more prominent with small companies entering the index who suddenly get a lot more interest. A small shift in a company that funds already own a lot of wont cause much of a ripple.

[Hoop]

Hmmmm...is 6.17 the bottom??

Disc: still holding

[winner69]

Mcquaries didn't paint a very rosy picture in a long winded report the other day. Delays in Chch rebuild one of the reasons but interesting were comments on new entrants to the Canty market which will drive prices (and margins) down. They mentioned a new cement plant being built and finished this year and opportunistic imports of steel and insulation aleady being seen

Their eps forecasts are (normalised) 59 qdt in F11 / 45 in F12 / 44 in F13 / 54 in F14 ..... so as Belg says todays price looks pretty rich and based on F14 earnings

[Hoop]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Hoop http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=371874#post371874)
Hmmmm...is 6.17 the bottom??

Disc: still holding

Might be :) ... would be a higher low too :)

Disc: not holding

Dipped to 6.12...so much for that hopeful 6.17 bottom theory :(

[Fred114]

Down again, so $6 the new threshold eh?

Disc: holding.....at around 22% loss ........

[Silverlight]

Just one more question about this rerating in the index.

Is it possible to find out what persentage of FBU is owned by funds? Then its easier to quantify how much or little effect this rerating has.

One thing to keep in mind is that while most active fund managers track the NZX50 for their NZ shares, the majority of index funds in NZ track the NZX50 portfolio index, which caps holdings at 5%. Under the new rules FBU won't be effected at all, and CEN may even increase its weight within this index.

The smartshares ETF's, will be likely buyers of CEN.

On FBU itself, fundamentally anywhere below $6 is good buying, this stock will be $10 in two years, once building gets underway, and the market is given earnings 'visibility' on Christchurch.

[forest]

Thanks Silverlight and CJ for putting the index ratings in perspective.

Forest

[Hoop]

Hope Silverlight is right ...but as for now. Its still downwards
Fred $5.80 looks to be the next stop.

Should've waited for cyclic bull market change confirmation..I had a couple of days warning before the sudden drop but lack of discipline and greed of the Divvy..you pay the price..luckly it hurt my pride more than my pocket.

Cyclic Bull or Bear atm ...Hmmmm???


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU10042012-1.png

[winner69]

Mcquaries didn't paint a very rosy picture in a long winded report the other day. Delays in Chch rebuild one of the reasons but interesting were comments on new entrants to the Canty market which will drive prices (and margins) down. They mentioned a new cement plant being built and finished this year and opportunistic imports of steel and insulation aleady being seen

Their eps forecasts are (normalised) 59 qdt in F11 / 45 in F12 / 44 in F13 / 54 in F14 ..... so as Belg says todays price looks pretty rich and based on F14 earnings

Belg .... told you about that Herald article a few weeks ago so hopefully all out in the market and no more damage to the shareprice this week

[Hoop]

When a company hits a rough spot the blame always goes to something else.
AIR blamed high oil prices (my chart showed no evidence to support that)
RAK blamed the high NZ$ (my chart showed no evidence to support that)
I wonder if the company really believes that or they use that economic theory in a loose way excuse to cover their own mismanagement of product management and competitor strategy.
I can't stress more in saying that qualified marketing personnel are a vitial cog in a major company.

In FBU case atm we shareholders are hearing that same old bell ringing...Quote Ling ".... Some transtasman-made Fletcher products were under fire because of the high Australian and New Zealand dollars. Buying goods from cheaper rival regions with weaker currencies, making them more attractive to buyers...."

Again and again we have had cyclic high NZ$ so we should be able to see if this currency event has affected FBU in the past...if so then Ling has an excuse....if not then FBU would seem to have drop the ball and the astute competitors have swooped in and picked the ball up and running away with it.



"They're attacking our market," Ling said of the rivals to Fletcher. ....Ummm ...sorry to say this Mr Ling, but isn't that what happens in all forms of business all of the time :confused::confused:.

Alot of public and investor FBU thinking lies with the CHCH rebuild.....This was mean't to be the bull to FBU share price...so whats happened here???
I thought FBU and the NZ Government made outside competitive entry level a lot more difficult with the setting up of CERA (http://www.rebuildchristchurch.co.nz/blog/2011/4/about-the-cera-and-questions-and-answers) ...... A Rumour (http://uncensored.co.nz/2011/06/03/what-is-going-on-in-christchurch-the-real-story/) last year indicated that CERA was full of FBU personel...but that's not entirely true Cera Boss Roger Sutton was CEO of Power lines with Orion

Is Cera evolving and what's the current FBU influence?? Quote NZB 23/4/2012 (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/cera-take-control-christchurch-cbd-rebuild-brownlee-wb-117072)...Last month, CERA boss Roger Sutton told Parliament’s finance and expenditure committee his organisation is working through some $2.5 billion of infrastructure reconstruction, with water, sewage, electricity and telecommunications networks at the front of the queue before new roading......
......the new CERA unit will be headed up by Warwick Isaacs (Edit: he's been with local Government for the last 14 years), who has been CERA’s general manager of operations and responsible for the CBD cordon, security and demolition of buildings. The unit will also take responsibility to undertake development and investment promotion, and will schedule and co-ordinate construction once it gets under way.

Looking at the charts below it seems FBU management has dropped the ball
Disc: Have shares in FBU

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBUvNZ20042012.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBUVNZSARAND20042012.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBUVNZEURO20042012.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBUVNZMALAYSIA20042012.png

[Hoop]

MFI et al says buy ... discl: bought

Good timing there ..Belg :D

[Hoop]

What's your view on MFIs, Hoop?

I find them a bit inprecise but when the heart says and MFIs says ... I do. :)

Belg...They say its a good indicator......but..there must be something wrong with me...I must be perceiving its real purpose wrongly.... because... I can't get to grips with it..I've seen it diverge while the price keeps going up and up and up...and up Ive seen it come off an oversolded level (indicating a swing reversal warning) when it is only halfway up the Matterhorn....frustrating if you've sold out.
For me personally, there are lots of more responsive and friendlier indicators around than MFI ... other Accum /Dist indicators such as Twiggs Money flow is very good and has become one of my favorites lately. For the overbought/oversold part of the Money flow and the trends I find the RSI good....for momentum using the momentum indicator does me OK.

Anyway....one should never use only one indicator in isolation...and...you shouldn't use too many neither..they all have their strengths and weaknesses,,,Some indicators work very well for some stocks and not others... or ..."tweaking" rather than using the default you sometimes find the sweet spot for a particular stock.

[winner69]

FBU shareprice was going quite well yesterday until that 5 plus quake just after 3pm

Probably delay the rebuild a bit as insurance companies get the jitters again

[winner69]

Hell's bells the share price down heaps today .....almost to 6 bucks

What's up

[Hoop]

Hell's bells the share price down heaps today .....almost to 6 bucks

What's up

Been reading this site
http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/
It has info galore about the Aussi Property Market....bloody scary stuff..Id say NZ stats would be similar.
I then had a look at the banking sector today ..they had a good day ....huh??:confused:

So it can't be the news about this Aussi property correction, can it......can it??

STU also took a hit for the second time this week....

Maybe this could be part of the cause:

Quote from Forexpros (http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/eur-usd,-gbp-usd,-usd-cad-and-aud-usd-daily-report:-may-31,-2012-125024):
"....Lastly, the Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped versus the greenback as risk aversion dominated market sentiment on concerns over the handling of Spain’s banking crisis. The aussie was also weighed on by lackluster economic data showing that Retail Sales slumped by 0.2 percent. And in New Zealand, Building Permits slipped 7.2 percent in April after they had climbed 19.6 percent in March...."

[Major von Tempsky]

Looks like the market has not held Jonathon Ling in very high regard ;-)

[lissica]

Looks like the market has not held Jonathon Ling in very high regard ;-)

looks like it doesn't care either way...FBU closed up 0.2%, same as the NZX 50 for the day.

Interesting they've changed the articles on the news websites. I read this morning Ralph Waters quoted as saying that Ling had doubled the size of the company since he took over, which left me scratching my head. Tried to find the links to the articles and looks like it has been updated and deleted.

[CJ]

Looks like the market has not held Jonathon Ling in very high regard ;-)


looks like it doesn't care either way...FBU closed up 0.2%, same as the NZX 50 for the day.At this stage, the direction of the economy and the timing of the Chch rebuild are of more importance on the shareprice that the dude at the top. not much news re those so the shareprice went sideways.

[winner69]

Boral has yet another profit downgrade saying hardly anything going right market wise in Australia.

No doubt one of the reasons for FBU going down today .... 570 something must be some interesting level on one of Hoops charts .... won't go much lower though as Belg will be buying at these levels

[Billy Boy]

won't go much lower though as Belg will be buying at these levels

And me :t_up:

[Hoop]

Boral has yet another profit downgrade saying hardly anything going right market wise in Australia.

No doubt one of the reasons for FBU going down today .... 570 something must be some interesting level on one of Hoops charts .... won't go much lower though as Belg will be buying at these levels

Yes it is Winner ...FBU broke major support today :(...but only just!!

Updated chart from 11 April

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU27062012.png


I would like to see a confirmation though as the daily chart has thrown up some bear traps recently... it seems to be sensitive to noise atm. One option to filter out noise sensitivity is to plot a weekly chart.
Strat will like this next chart :) Its simple and crystal clear for everyone to see that FBU is behaving like a doghttp://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTlL5FP2qbekoMBscqqPDgwc_mgcBlTZ Ks2QKHlEfk1ZxdtZim1Zg

Notice there is no support breaks ..yet! So there is still that possibility of a bullish double bottom event.

Nice example of a strong resistance point which stopped FBU dead in its tracks (see vertical red line)It was seen as a possible event on the weekly chart....but was not expected and labeled as a bull trap on the daily chart.

Remember that FBU is in a cyclic bear market cycle so if the weekly chart breaks it's 5.80 support then its CONFIRMED and a continued drop (or a pullback to test the new resistance/old support then fall) to the next support level somewhere around the 5.40 area would be expected to occur.
If it bounces up off the 5.80 support..the bear cycle can still take it to over 7.00

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU27062012week.png



And me :t_up:

Wanna buy mine BB :D


EDIT:
Hmmmm...Photobucket didn't put through my charts Charts added 8.40am + extra wording

[Hoop]

After the second earthquake FBU jumped up out of its trading range to go past the $8.00 mark in anticipation of restoration/rebuild work....$8.00 was looking cheap with that anticipation.

Who would have thought 16 months later the FBU price would still be in a continuing ski slope down to less than $6.00...what going wrong here??...why has this anticipatory pricing disappeared ?

[fungus pudding]

After the second earthquake FBU jumped up out of its trading range to go past the $8.00 mark in anticipation of restoration/rebuild work....$8.00 was looking cheap with that anticipation.

Who would have thought 16 months later the FBU price would still be in a continuing ski slope down to less than $6.00...what going wrong here??...why has this anticipatory pricing disappeared ?

I don't know, but they have certainly monopolised the construction market in NZ. With the forthcoming CHch rebuild, and flow on of other location upgrades which will be required, plus many hundreds of houses requiring rebuild because of the leaky home programs, I wouldn't be suprised to see some of the American and European giants eyeing up NZ - they're not over worked in the USA at present. I think one of the European insulation manufacturers is already starting to import a similar product to Batts, but at a fraction the price. There are many manufactureres of plaster board, or rockwall, who would blow Gib board out of the water if they tried. Because of the stimulation of the workload I wouldn't be suprised if Fletcher's margins decreased rather than increased. Many builders are doing nicely directly importing materials from China at massive savings - this is a growing trend and will have an impact on FBU. So there are threats to their position.

[Dubdee]

There is a lot of Chinese gib being imported already but there are problems with leaching into paint due to chemical compostion of gib. Builders see NZ product as better quality.

Chinese stuff may be cheaper but quality can be an issue. I had to replace my shower tray due to fibreglass delamination. Wouldnt buy chinese again irrespective of cost. The repairs are just a nightmare. Also a lot of stuff non safety compliant and wont get thru the consent process.

[fungus pudding]

There is a lot of Chinese gib being imported already but there are problems with leaching into paint due to chemical compostion of gib. Builders see NZ product as better quality.

Chinese stuff may be cheaper but quality can be an issue. I had to replace my shower tray due to fibreglass delamination. Wouldnt buy chinese again irrespective of cost. The repairs are just a nightmare. Also a lot of stuff non safety compliant and wont get thru the consent process.

Chinese manufacturers are capable of making top quality products, rubbish, or anything in between. It's a matter of sniffing it out. There are plenty of NZ builders doing just that.

[macduffy]

A shot in the arm for FBU?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/building-approvals-jolt-back-to-life-20120703-21e99.html

[Hoop]

A shot in the arm for FBU?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/building-approvals-jolt-back-to-life-20120703-21e99.html

Mr Market seems to think so...up 2.3% to 6.20 yesterday on that news....

[Billy Boy]

Wanna buy mine BB :D


How many did I get Hoop ???
:DBB

[Hoop]

Wanna buy mine BB :D


How many did I get Hoop ???
:DBB
None!!!! Sorry BB :(....nah I lied..I'm not sorry :D.......yet??:mellow:

Disc: still holding

[pierre]

At this price it's just about equal to its twelve month low ($5.75). Div yield at current price is 5.78% - though with no imputation credits for NZ. Does anyone have a view on whether the divvie will be maintained:
a) at currrent level
b) with or without imputation

Depending on your point of view on the question above FBU seems like a reasonable play for dividend and capital gain at this level - certainly better than $$$ sitting in the bank. Hard to see a reason for it to drop much lower with the prospect for action in ChCh surely not so far away now.

Your thoughts?

[troyvdh]

..spoke to someone "who should know"...as to wether to stay with Fletcher or opt out (for those of us CHCH)....he stated no question...."opt out".....and it would appear that the amount of questionable deals .....surfacing....is almost alarming....I am not a conspiracy theorist by any means...and I would love to devulge more....but please becareful out there.....troy....

[pierre]

..spoke to someone "who should know"...as to wether to stay with Fletcher or opt out (for those of us CHCH)....he stated no question...."opt out".....and it would appear that the amount of questionable deals .....surfacing....is almost alarming....I am not a conspiracy theorist by any means...and I would love to devulge more....but please becareful out there.....troy....

Well that's a pretty weird and vague contribution Troy.

Are you implying that FBU is involved in illegal activity, conspiring to defraud or what? If the "questionable deals" you refer to are "almost alarming", how much worse do they have to get before they actually are alarming?

Some facts, or at least some indicative detail, would be helpful to assist us to assess the value of your slightly scary hearsay comments.

[Fred114]

I was talking to an engineer, Charlie, now beginning to be involved in structural assessments. There is estimated to be about 10,000 homes that require this assessment. Charlie said that in 20 years of practice, he had done about 1000. The assessments alone are a huge amount of work. With Fletchers, they are trying to set up some kind of data gathering information service into a standardised form that is usable for issuing the assessment. This process alone will take months to set up, and little can be progressed before teams of engineers are employed to then carry out the assessments.

[percy]

Fletchers rang me about a month ago,said someone had pulled out,so they could come on tuesday to do our assessment.Fletchers man and a contractor.They had the original assessment,and they went right through our house.Basically interior repaint.I found them very through,and fair.The ceiling in the hall has no cracks,so I will have to pay the contractor to do it.They told me it would take a couple of months for the paper work to go through,then contractor would contact me for us to chose colours and dates for the work to be done. Looking for October or November.We will have to move out of our house for two or three weeks.ECQ will pay for a motel,and the cat to go into boarding.We can stay anywhere we want,however we have to pay travel costs.I asked why we were ahead of so many who had very badly damaged houses.They told me they were doing the houses on "good land" first.We will have to move our furniture into the garage ourselves.The contractor impressed me,so when they asked me if I wanted to opt out or have Fletchers do the work,I told them I would be pleased to go with them.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Percy what sort of job do you expect to get when they are now offering Painters & Plasterers $19.00 per hour on contract. From what I take from to days news

[troyvdh]

...pierre....weird and vague it maybe...of course i am not implying any of the issues you mention....but please .....if you were a resident of chch...you would been abundantly subjected to the obvious fact that there are winners and loosers.,...of course there are questionable deals...

...personally I own a few rentals.....

oh bugger this ....honestly you have no idea what you are talking about.....I was about to articulate some "facts" ....I really cannot be bothered....good night....

[winner69]

troy - maybe pierre wants to catch up on disaster capialism and what it means

[percy]

Percy what sort of job do you expect to get when they are now offering Painters & Plasterers $19.00 per hour on contract. From what I take from to days news

I am hopefull of a first class job.

[winner69]

I am hopefull of a first class job.

you be ok percy as long as you ask them to use DULUX .... not that ****ty Wattyl or Resene stuff

Its actually about $45 an hour for the painter .... the $19 is a sq metre rate (floor area thst is)

[percy]

you be ok percy as long as you ask them to use DULUX .... not that ****ty Wattyl or Resene stuff

Its actually about $45 an hour for the painter .... the $19 is a sq metre rate (floor area thst is)

winner69,the wife has had me at Bunnings getting the Dulux colour charts.!!!!!!!
Now a question for everyone.Our house is about 5 years old.Do you paint the ceiling the same colour as the walls?.This house has white ceiling and coloured walls.Our last house had the walls the same colour as the ceiling.I prefered all the one colour.Was thinking of going to some show homes to see what they are doing.

[slimwin]

Either or Percy, your choice. Just make sure the roof is matt or any blemishs will stand out. As for the quality of the job,if your not happy don't sign off on it an Fletchers will get the contractor to fix it. That's what happened for our drive. They didn't do a bad job first. I just expected top notch. All was fixed up,no questions.
For our internals I opted in with using a local,authorised, builder that has been recommended by a friend.
The best builders in the other towns of NZ are still building houses and not moving to ChCh.

[percy]

Either or Percy, your choice. Just make sure the roof is matt or any blemishs will stand out. As for the quality of the job,if your not happy don't sign off on it an Fletchers will get the contractor to fix it. That's what happened for our drive. They didn't do a bad job first. I just expected top notch. All was fixed up,no questions.
For our internals I opted in with using a local,authorised, builder that has been recommended by a friend.
The best builders in the other towns of NZ are still building houses and not moving to ChCh.

Thank you for your sound advice.

[Hoop]

Crunch time ... Testing the support level at 5.70 again ... (One notes yet another article in the papers about the great ChCh rebuild starting in earnest! Just get on with it!)

Yes going back to test primary support but I have it at 5.80
Bad news is that the primary trend line has slid below the 6.30-6.45 Resistance band making life harder for FBU to get above 6.50...also the two primaries are now squeezing the share price.

Note....I used DB's super chart ...no incredible chart... no NZ data feed from Yahoo for the last 3 weeks...until today...Warning, the 3 week chart gap is not apparent. No point using incredible charts for charting NZ*** companies any more as it's buggered for the foreseeable future...incl the indicators:mad ;:

***(re:the Yahoo data default)


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/fbu16072012.gif

[Hoop]

winner69,the wife has had me at Bunnings getting the Dulux colour charts.!!!!!!!
Now a question for everyone.Our house is about 5 years old.Do you paint the ceiling the same colour as the walls?.This house has white ceiling and coloured walls.Our last house had the walls the same colour as the ceiling.I prefered all the one colour.Was thinking of going to some show homes to see what they are doing.

Hi Percy
it's your choice as Slimwin says but darker shades or darker colours absorb light..one of the reasons why ceilings are white...Have you thought about 1/2 and 1/4 tones of the same named colour of your walls. We did the 1/4 toning with a low sheen satin at my daughters place It still made the Lounge darker at night but when we replaced the conventional lighting with 240v/12v 20W halogens it gave it a modern atmosphere.
The low sheen hid nearly all of the renovation imperfections.... :) and it's easier to clean.

[percy]

Hoop and David B. Thank you for your replys.

[pierre]

At this price it's just about equal to its twelve month low ($5.75). Div yield at current price is 5.78% - though with no imputation credits for NZ. Does anyone have a view on whether the divvie will be maintained:
a) at currrent level
b) with or without imputation

Depending on your point of view on the question above FBU seems like a reasonable play for dividend and capital gain at this level - certainly better than $$$ sitting in the bank. Hard to see a reason for it to drop much lower with the prospect for action in ChCh surely not so far away now.

Your thoughts?

My question above looks like it got waylaid in the redecorating department. SP is now at 592 so didn't quite hit the 12 month low. Does anyone have any thoughts on what the dividend prospects might be in the forthcoming announcement in August?

[winner69]

Percy - let's get the thread back on topic, like back to redecorating eh

A painter in Chch told me his biggest hassle was getting colors matched for these fix ups. He said EQC insisted on repaints being exactly the same colour as before the quakes. The logic apparently being that changing colour schemes was akin to adding value to a property as opposed to the intent of insurance being 'putting righht'. Wasted hours of his and the paint shop time doing the matching.

Maybe changed the rules - hope so for you and your missus as you people deserve to get something out of this.

Interested to see how you get on

[Snow Leopard]

My question above looks like it got waylaid in the redecorating department. SP is now at 592 so didn't quite hit the 12 month low. Does anyone have any thoughts on what the dividend prospects might be in the forthcoming announcement in August?

If you take a look at the Financial Times (http://markets.ft.com/Research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=FBU:NZC) the guess appear to be about 16.2c.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[macduffy]

My question above looks like it got waylaid in the redecorating department.

Nice one, pierre!

Now on the side issue, ie FBU's prospects of maintaining its dividend, I'd have to say that it looks only a 50/50 chance at best. Too much bad news in the sector, housing consents; slow Christchurch re-build; depressed Aussie building scene; govt restraints on infrastructure spend, etc.

Now, back to the redecorators with apologies for highjacking their thread.....

;)

[percy]

pierre,and others; apologies.Craigs have FBU as a hold,target price of $6.47 with flat earnings.
Winner69.Thanks,would be happy with existing colours.
Paper Tiger,thanks,but no.
Sparky the Clown,thanks, as always you are right on the money.

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10820465

I'd say contractors and suppliers to the reconstruction aren't going to make as much as they thought .... govt going to screw them and get them to subsidise the rebuild .... even Fletchers in their priviledged position might not be safeguarded

Heck - 5 million litres of paint .... hope DLX wins that tender ... should help the shareprice

[janner]

NPX looks to be on a supply winner there, whom ever gets the contract

[kiwi_on_OE]

I reckon the 5m litres contract is a bad thing for DLX (or whoever wins the contract). The 5m would've been produced with or without the contract, as the walls etc. still need painting. This way the government gets it at a discounted price, and DLX or whoever makes less from it. Similar for NPX, they would've been selling the raw materials to a paint manufacturer anyway.

Thinking of Chch in 5-10yrs time. I'll be able to tell which places were painted under this contract, they'll all be the same colour. ;-)

[winner69]

Thinking of Chch in 5-10yrs time. I'll be able to tell which places were painted under this contract, they'll all be the same colour. ;-)

Prob would all have to be repainted by then if lowest price is the criteria .... or Chch will look rundown again

Good for the taxpayer this the govt will say .... but not a good message for free market sort of stuff but then that is what disaster capitalism is all about

[winner69]

I reckon the 5m litres contract is a bad thing for DLX (or whoever wins the contract). The 5m would've been produced with or without the contract, as the walls etc. still need painting. This way the government gets it at a discounted price, and DLX or whoever makes less from it. Similar for NPX, they would've been selling the raw materials to a paint manufacturer anyway.

Thinking of Chch in 5-10yrs time. I'll be able to tell which places were painted under this contract, they'll all be the same colour. ;-)

As I understand it NPX doesn't supply all paint companies in NZ so might miss out on some they got already

Then again it may all get imported

[winner69]

Must get the thread back on track .... for percey anyway

Percy, books are your life and 50 Shades of Grey all the rage .... maybe the missus will be painting the walls grey .... hope she has this Dulux colour card.

The mans view of all this
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/blogs/rock-and-roll-mother/7292719/50-Shades-of-Grey-for-men

[Hoop]

Yes going back to test primary support but I have it at 5.80
Bad news is that the primary trend line has slid below the 6.30-6.45 Resistance band making life harder for FBU to get above 6.50...also the two primaries are now squeezing the share price.

Note....I used DB's super chart ...no incredible chart... no NZ data feed from Yahoo for the last 3 weeks...until today...Warning, the 3 week chart gap is not apparent. No point using incredible charts for charting NZ*** companies any more as it's buggered for the foreseeable future...incl the indicators:mad ;:

***(re:the Yahoo data default)


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/fbu16072012.gif

Intra-day FBU has broken Primary Support:p .. got as low as 5.74...currently at 5.76 (down 7 -1.2%)
The Full year results are due in a few weeks..I wonder if MR Market is expecting an ugly result.

[Major von Tempsky]

On a fundamental analysis basis it would still have to be a lot lower for me to become interested :-)

[percy]

Must get the thread back on track .... for percey anyway

Percy, books are your life and 50 Shades of Grey all the rage .... maybe the missus will be painting the walls grey .... hope she has this Dulux colour card.

The mans view of all this
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/blogs/rock-and-roll-mother/7292719/50-Shades-of-Grey-for-men

Just loved your post winner69.!!!!!!

[winner69]

Methinks we will never never see FBU at 600 again ........... even if not worth 640 odd as MVT says (I sort of agree) the multi year future outlook is bright and NZ instos need to put NZ savers money somewhere

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU13082012.gif

[winner69]

The new head honcho will reassure everybody next week everything is on track for FBU to capitalise on Christchurch and other stuff around the world ... even the aussie building numbers are not as bad as punters thought - getting better (or less worse) one paper said the other day

[Hoop]

Hoop, did you get in at the 5.70 mark? ... (discl: I followed my own advice :) )

Belg Do you mean to tell me that on the 25th July the day with that failed intraday break you actually bought (within this tiny time period window of opportunity) shares at 5.70.:confused:

Belg you disappoint me... if you had waited for that precise moment (seconds??) you would have picked them up at 5.69 the absolute bottom since 31 March 2009....you're slipping mate ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Belg Do you mean to tell me that on the 25th July the day with that failed intraday break you actually bought (within this tiny time period window of opportunity) shares at 5.70.:confused:

Belg you disappoint me... if you had waited for that precise moment (seconds??) you would have picked them up at 5.69 the absolute bottom since 31 March 2009....you're slipping mate ;)

Of course, I bought every single share at that price, but I forgot to mention it until now.
Obviously I will sell them at the exact top of this little run up and may remember to tell you all sometime later.

tongue in cheek
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

LOL Hoop, No I actually started buying over a few days under 5.80. While I was expecting a 5.70 low I wasn't sure whether it'd be fleeting as per the previous low and I didn't want to miss out. That's the value of pyrimids ... at least you get some ... which will be gone soon. I'm guessing we'll be challenging a higher low shortly (unless the result is an absolute shocker!) and I'll look to buy in again there.

Yeah agree..A possible scenario after any price breakout is an expectation of a throwback..yeah short-termers could be due to start selling and taking profits (you too Belg??) and getting set up to buy back in after the throwback.... hopefully it will be only a mild drop this time, being held up in the spongy TA floor between 6.30 -.6.45 and as you say be challenged with a higher low but you never know for sure with trader psychology especially when there is uncertainty everywhere.....eh?? Also Winner and MVT sort of have a 6.40 fundee mark in mind..that helps eh?

When the media refocuses back from the feel good Olympic games to Eurocrisis (any day now) we may see a global equity softening. The overseas markets have had a good run recently and maybe due for a bit of profit taking. Any Euro news that is not good may be the excuse to exit..There is already TA divergences appearing..

About absolute shocker reports.... I'm more relaxed about that as I think we would have had a disclosure by now if a bad one was coming..wouldn't we?...there's only 8 more sleeps until the result.

Disc: still holding

[KJ]

I think that FBU would have disclosed info if the result is outside the expected range.I think it will probably be at the low end.
How will the market react?

[Doyle]

This might see me bounced out today ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10828013

Hmmn or not, it seems an in range result is what is expected and even if it is at the lower end the SP will still be around 670 if its at the higher end well maybe 700. All will be revealed tommorrow

[Lizard]

In terms of earnings for the 2013 financial year, a significant increase in earnings from the current level would require a marked improvement in residential and commercial construction levels, particularly in New Zealand and Australia.

I can't see that outlook statement setting the market on fire at this point.

[percy]

I can't see that outlook statement setting the market on fire at this point.

A shocker.!!!!

[winner69]

Just as well they bought Crane .... without them they would have had to say operating earnings down 21% (before all the bad stuff as well)

But what the heck ... even bad news is good news these days ..... things are all OK and they ares till here ...... up up and away

[macduffy]

A shocker.!!!!

Hardly " a shocker" although "normalised" earnings were towards the bottom of the company's own guidance range issued last February.

Given the level of economic activity why would we expect anything better?

[CJ]

Not sure what the surpise what. Didn't analyst expect it to be at the bottom of the range?

[percy]

Hardly " a shocker" although "normalised" earnings were towards the bottom of the company's own guidance range issued last February.

Given the level of economic activity why would we expect anything better?

On further thought it was more of "a stinker";bad smells with restructuring and impairment [we cocked up],week building/marked slowdowns,competition,insulation business medium term earning prospects have deteriorated,ChCh rebuild further away.
Given the level of economic activity why are Bunnings always so much busier than Placemakers.?

[winner69]

On further thought it was more of "a stinker";bad smells with restructuring and impairment [we cocked up],week building/marked slowdowns,competition,insulation business medium term earning prospects have deteriorated,ChCh rebuild further away.
Given the level of economic activity why are Bunnings always so much busier than Placemakers.?

But they Placemakers have 'held share' in most regions ........ by the sounds of it percy Chch isn't one of those most regions

What it says analysts are useless with their tea leaves ..... company never said any figure .... all they said they were happy with expectations ...... the expectations set my analysts eh

Probably implies that one analyst got it right .... the lower end one ... dfinitely wasn't Forbar or Craigs

[Major von Tempsky]

Oh dear, another wrong analysis by Forsyth Barr.

They seem to be making a habit of it lately with one or two shares.....

But how does the latest magical Phaedrus chart look with the latest chicken entrails....

[percy]

Oh dear, another wrong analysis by Forsyth Barr.

They seem to be making a habit of it lately with one or two shares.....
But how does the latest magical Phaedrus chart look with the latest chicken entrails....

No surprises there.!!!
In a word "fowl".

[macduffy]

What it says analysts are useless with their tea leaves ..... company never said any figure .... all they said they were happy with expectations ...... the expectations set my analysts eh


Not just the analysts' figures.

FBU company presentation of May included "Net earnings before unusuals for the 2012 financial year are expected to be in the range of $310 - $340m "

Result came in towards bottom of this range. No surprises there, or shouldn't have been !

[Under Surveillance]

No surprises there.!!!
In a word "fowl".

Reminds me of my father's account of a food seller in Cairo during WWII advertising "foul sandwiches".

[Jay]

Given the level of economic activity why are Bunnings always so much busier than Placemakers.?

I was told by a couple of Placemakers managers that DIY people is not really their focus - They deal with more in Trade - bigger ordrs less often - well in Auckland anyway

[winner69]

Not just the analysts' figures.

FBU company presentation of May included "Net earnings before unusuals for the 2012 financial year are expected to be in the range of $310 - $340m "

Result came in towards bottom of this range. No surprises there, or shouldn't have been !


But Jay the 'analysts' come up with the figures in the first place ....and then the company agrees by saying 'expected to be in the range of' ..... they only have a real problem if they think the analysts are a bit too far away of the mark and they have to say otherwise .... but that doesn't happen very often because the 'analysts' have 'interviewed' the company before they came up eith their guess in the first place

[percy]

Reminds me of my father's account of a food seller in Cairo during WWII advertising "foul sandwiches".

Good one.!!!!

[percy]

I was told by a couple of Placemakers managers that DIY people is not really their focus - They deal with more in Trade - bigger ordrs less often - well in Auckland anyway

I have heard that too.
The result tells me they are in the wrong business at the wrong time.A big long dark tunnel to get through.

[Servaas]

Re Placemakers: before the arrival of Bunnings, Placemakers was the dominant player in th NZ hardware space . They could have had both the trade and retail/DIY markets - the two are not mutually exclusive. Instead, they walked away from retail in favour of trade - and Bunnings filled the gap. Bunnings expansion and success in recent years highlights the scale of this lost opportunity for Placemakers. Bunnings is, in my opinion, a far better run business and has already recognised the trade opportunity in NZ. Watch this space: with their scale and expertise, they will progressively erode Placemakers trade business.

[peat]

Result seems ok to me excl. abnormals - tho abnormals seem v.frequent these years.
What surprises me is that div is actually greater than earnings (incl write offs).
Crane certainly seems to have saved the day- that's a huge incr in revenue

[CJ]

Result seems ok to me excl. abnormals - tho abnormals seem v.frequent these years.If you "restructure" every year, does it become part of your normal business.

The real issue with the result in my opinion is the comments that the NZ and Australian market still show no hope. Same issue TME had - good profit but softer outlook.

And remember the price plummeted to levels not seen since earlier this month ;)

I was hoping that the recent trend would continue though.

[winner69]

You know things are getting better when the likes of FBU are being touted as a 'turn around' stock

[winner69]

Forbar lowers 2013 expectations by heaps but FBU remains a BUY

Of course it is a buy ... a turnaround is underway .... never again will FBU be 600 .... up up and away

Well done Rob

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU13082012.gif

Referring to my old chart(its still valid)
At 6.33 this morning FBU is not technically broken...its just a pity it failed to progress passed its next hurdle (6.80 resistance) before weakness set in.
This recent breakout has been thrownback into that spongy 6.30- 6.45 support zone. According to Bulkowsky, about 50% of the breakouts get thrownback to test their breakout points before the price rises again..so this drop in price was not unexpected although I was a little surprised as I though Mr Market had expected the result to come in at the bottom end of it's guidance announcement some time ago.The 5% correction obviously shows Mr Market had been a tad too optimistic.

Hopefully.... this throw back will end at the R&S 6.30 - 6.45 zone and not the primary trend breakout point 6.00 - 6.10 area.

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10820465

I'd say contractors and suppliers to the reconstruction aren't going to make as much as they thought .... govt going to screw them and get them to subsidise the rebuild .... even Fletchers in their priviledged position might not be safeguarded

Heck - 5 million litres of paint .... hope DLX wins that tender ... should help the shareprice

Plasterboard tender out now

For FBU they keep much a monopoly position and don't lose too much volume but just have to pay a rebate to the govt or the govt says we need to stir the market up and share the business around and still collect the rebate

Whatever some downside or FBU

I hear the paint tender went to 3 to share ..... From a supply point of view nothing changes much ..... And the government screwed the paint manufacturers X% out of them for the privilege

[winner69]

Mcquaries have 12 month target price on FBU go $5.94


Guru analyst like the Forbar's guy for TEL has a price less than the current price ......when ws the last time guru analysts have been so pessimistic

Maybe I was wrong .......we will FBU back at 600 again

[Silverlight]

Mcquaries have 12 month target price on FBU go $5.94


Guru analyst like the Forbar's guy for TEL has a price less than the current price ......when ws the last time guru analysts have been so pessimistic

Maybe I was wrong .......we will FBU back at 600 again

Macquarie are price trackers with most of their universe, when they update their "research" they just use roughly the current price. Their $5.94 would have been made when the price was under $6, I will see if I can find a historical list of their targets, and the date made, and the price at the time, to confirm.

[winner69]

Nice steady rise since 'profit takers' sold out post Ann

Wonder what they did with their profits?

[winner69]

Or losses if they were greedy enough to buy in at over $9.00 post the February 2011 earthquake, or God forbid, at over $12 just before the GFC. Somebody must have!

Just that whenever a stock drops in price after a bit of a run it is always blamed on profit takers

Seems to suggest that everybody wins .....and nobody loses

[percy]

Nice steady rise since 'profit takers' sold out post Ann

Wonder what they did with their profits?

I used proceeds to top up on SKL and HNZ.

[whirly]

;patiently awaiting $5

[Silverlight]

Winner here is the last Macquarie price targets I could find:

Date - Target - Price on Day - View
08/22/12 - 5.94 - 6.32 - Neutral
05/15/12 - 6.30 - 6.29 - Neutral
04/03/12 - 6.30 - 6.47 - Neutral
03/12/12 - 6.50 - 6.69 - Neutral
02/23/12 - 6.50 - 6.46 - Neutral
01/31/12 - 7.09 - 6.52 - Neutral
01/11/12 - 7.00 - 5.86 - Neutral
12/06/11 - 7.04 - 6.30 - Neutral
10/12/11 - 7.52 - 6.92 - Neutral

Their target is always within cooee of the current price.

[Hoop]

;patiently awaiting $5


"So this is it; this is what I wished for; just isn't how I envisioned it..." —Eminem (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Music/Eminem), from "Careful What You Wish For." (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qzqn0ZOljEM)

[Hoop]

Winner here is the last Macquarie price targets I could find:

Date - Target - Price on Day - View
08/22/12 - 5.94 - 6.32 - Neutral
05/15/12 - 6.30 - 6.29 - Neutral
04/03/12 - 6.30 - 6.47 - Neutral
03/12/12 - 6.50 - 6.69 - Neutral
02/23/12 - 6.50 - 6.46 - Neutral
01/31/12 - 7.09 - 6.52 - Neutral
01/11/12 - 7.00 - 5.86 - Neutral
12/06/11 - 7.04 - 6.30 - Neutral
10/12/11 - 7.52 - 6.92 - Neutral

Their target is always within cooee of the current price.

Thxs Silverlight very interesting.

Would've hate them... buying in around the 6.50 mark last October after that price correction and their target price still up in the mid $7...eh?

The chart is looking good.

quote my post 24-08-2012: Hopefully.... this throw back will end at the R&S 6.30 - 6.45 zone and not the primary trend breakout point 6.00 - 6.10 area.

Yes it did and that is a huge positive to reinforce the possibility of a new primary uptrend could be underway....I'll ignore Macquarie due to its past performances.

Disc: Still Holding FBU

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/y_fbunz_price_daily_and_on_balance_volume___daily2 5aug11_to_11sep12.png

[winner69]

Strong building consents data for NZ from Stats NZ today

That could add a few bob to the share price

Whirly - FBU will never have a 5 in front f it again ....never

[Silverlight]

Strong building consents data for NZ from Stats NZ today

That could add a few bob to the share price

Whirly - FBU will never have a 5 in front f it again ....never

Share split? :D:p

[winner69]

Strong building consents data for NZ from Stats NZ today

That could add a few bob to the share price

Whirly - FBU will never have a 5 in front f it again ....never

But approvals were down heaps in Oz ....... Economists were expecting them to rise but they were down 13% ......whoops back to econometric models to see where they went wrong

[winner69]

Nearly back to $7 .... nice

We'll never see $6 again thats for sure .... and as things st

[winner69]

Try again

Nearly back to $7 .... nice

We'll never see $6 again thats for sure .... and as things start building in Christchurch we may never see $7 again either

Up up and away .... sure has the last month .... and still more helium in the balloon

[winner69]

Judging by the comments under the NBR report on Hugh Fletcher retiring FBU should be a lot better off in the future

Another pointer to FBU heading to $10 sometime next year

[winner69]

Well done Hugh .... retirement has got the shareprice back to 700

Next stop 800 .... I don't think we'll see much of 700 for many years to come

Better bet at the mo than TEL .... from a TOTAL shareholder return I mean

Up up and away ... thats FBU for you

[Silverlight]

Better bet at the mo than TEL ....

Glad I made the switch, despite MVT's best intentions to discourage others from doing so.

[ratkin]

7.10 would be a yearly high, which would also be a breakout form a year long double bottom, be it an ugly one

[winner69]

OMG - the guru analysts/comentators got it all wrong again ......GDP double what they forecasted

And construction one of the stars .......of course we all knew that eh

Rankin ....yes breakout imminent ...... 700 the new launch pad .....to 800 and then 900 and up up and away

[winner69]

Omg ....punters realise there is heaps for FBU to make in Chch

Methinks we will never see 700 again

Up up and away

[Hoop]

Omg ....punters realise there is heaps for FBU to make in Chch

Methinks we will never see 700 again

Up up and away


7.10 would be a yearly high, which would also be a breakout form a year long double bottom, be it an ugly one

Around the 7.00 is another major area that helps confirms the death of FBU bear market cycle and the start of a primary uptrend (bull market cycle):t_up:....If its a bull market now and not a (short term) bull trap then I agree with Winner that sub $7.00 will not be revisited for a very long time.....theoretically many years as Cyclic bulls live on average a lot longer than cyclic bears.

The last two Cyclic Bull Market Cycles were...the 1st one about 7 years? duration 2000? to 2007 (my charts don't go back any further than 2001).... and a sickly bull of 2 years 2009 -2011 of which it slept for one year of its life....

Both Cyclic Bear Market Cycles were 1.5 years in duration 2007 - 2009 and 2011-2012

EDIT:- data from Silverlight's post

Macquarie price targets I could find:

08/22/12 - 5.94 - 6.32 - Neutral

Disc Holding :)

[Silverlight]

EDIT:- data from Silverlight's post

Macquarie price targets I could find:

08/22/12 - 5.94 - 6.32 - Neutral

Disc Holding :)

Updated
09/18/12 - 5.94 - 6.88 - Neutral ;)

[winner69]

I love breakouts .....more than +25% since late July is pretty good eh Silverlight ... and a divie as well. You would also better than TEL as well eh

Don't think we will ever see 700 again ... but keep an eye on those charts just in case

[Minerbarejet]

Sounds good to me - could reach your target sometime today the way things are going. Have a nice day. HAND :-)

[Hoop]

Stopped out today ... might have set stop a little too tight ... such is life.

I'm beginning to think playtime is over and I need to start buying through my investment account for the longer term ... Target entry would be about $6.60 or wherever the current "correction" terminates.

Sound like a plan?

Yeah ..sounds like a plan...playtime is a cyclic bear market cycle investment (rowing) strategy and it seems FBU is now in a Cyclic Bull market market cycle so Buy and hold (sailing) strategy works well and is far less time consuming..

Belg your timing is surperb again..well done
FBU at 7.19 is testing its medium supports...It has since fallen to 7.15 so I guess the TA sell triggers will be starting to fire off which has probably shaken out a few medium term investors today...A 2.1% drop today after yesterdays 2.4% drop in a NZX market that hasn't dropped much makes it suspiciously like this dumping maybe too quick and therefore overcooked...so it will be interesting to see if that major support of 7.20 area can be held at the closing today... Bull market corrections average around 10% so we are half way there already after only 1.5 days!!
Belg 6.60 entry?...a tad low isn't it ...maybe 6.80 but I wouldn't hold my breath on that figure either if FBU in on a bull run...crikey! Winner says not under 7.00...Winner we wont dwell on Macquaries 5.94 price will we ;)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU10102012.png

[Hoop]

One notes that Chalkie thinks the NZX is getting a bit frothy ...

Yes ...This steep climb definitely gives you a sense of feeling that the NZX is in need of a breather...The 0.6% drop today will help fuel that sense of feeling ..eh?

[winner69]

Stopped out today ... might have set stop a little too tight ... such is life.

I'm beginning to think playtime is over and I need to start buying through my investment account for the longer term ... Target entry would be about $6.60 or wherever the current "correction" terminates.

Sound like a plan?

Must be incredibly tight stops belg ... assume it is trailing stop loss of some sort ---- like %age from the previous high or something ..... heck yesterdays close was less than 3% off the previous high and you were stopped out ... amazing you were still in

Well done though ..... picking the top again


Methinks 660 won't happen ....... FBU wont have a 6 in front of it for some time

[winner69]

Seems the CFO and Placemaker's CEO think now's a good time to sell. Not a good look.

The Placemmakers guys probably looking at the activity in their stores relative to buntings down the road and said heck we better buy some WES shares

[winner69]

No worries about the fall today .....man on radio said it was just profit taking .....now they taken their profits they be back for more eh

[gonzo56]

The charts still look healthy to me.

[Balance]

No worries about the fall today .....man on radio said it was just profit taking .....now they taken their profits they be back for more eh

A bit more downside yet before sp stabilizes.

Reason will become clear on Friday.

[ratkin]

A bit more downside yet before sp stabilizes.

Reason will become clear on Friday.


Balance smells a rat ?

:eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2::eek2:

[ratkin]

Looks like it has bounced bck above the support at about 7.11, not gping down without a fight

[janner]

Its not very scientific ... Once I have a reasonable profit lined up, based upon the time between tops and bottoms, I just keep tightening and tightening the stop until I get stopped out ... (I can see TA'er holding their heads in their hands and saying "OMG, OMG, OMG!!" while rolling their eyes in dispair.)

Science follows reasoned steps Belg.. Sounds quite reasonable to me.. Works for you..

[ratkin]

4168

What do we think troops? Up or down?

Positives

1) Bounced off trendline
2) Clawed its way back over support line
3) Rats system not given a sell signal

Negatives

1) Falling in price
2) Downward gap
3) Spinning top on tuesday signalled the top
4) Very bearish candle wednesday confirmed it

Personally , dont see it going up past that high for a while , is going either sideways or down imo, in short term at least

[winner69]

Do share! ... Will it be a "after the market has closed" announcement that hopes nobdy notices or a "before the market opens" announcement that they want everyone to notice and the market overeacts? ... Come on me ol' mate ... Share!

Must be eh Belg

Nothing yet today

[peat]

Any update mate? Maybe I missed something but no official PR as far as I can see.....

a big management reshuffle

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10839773

[Hoop]

What a difference 3 days can make in trading with FBU

3 days ago there were a lot of warning signs emerging (no sell signals)...today its back to bull business as normal ...The chart has stayed intact TA wise except for a brief intraday shakeout?
It seems 7.03 is the bottom sweet spot so far.....I would keep a watch on this one as I would like to see a higher high (higher close than 7.48) before I stop worrying about a possible bull market correction

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/FBU12102012.png

[winner69]

Stopped out today ... might have set stop a little too tight ... such is life.

I'm beginning to think playtime is over and I need to start buying through my investment account for the longer term ... Target entry would be about $6.60 or wherever the current "correction" terminates.

Sound like a plan?


Hope you back in after being stopped out at 730 and having another go ......back over 750

Up up and away .....no worries

[macduffy]

At 7.50 the DB website puts the PE ratio at 27.66 ... Looks over valued to me :p

Presumably, the quoted PE is historical, based on last year's net earnings of $185m which was arrived at after Restructuring and Impairment charges of $132m, largely related to the disruptions to the insulation business in Australia caused by abrupt govt policy changes. Resultant EPS of 27.2c.

Whether or not there will be further impairment charges in the current year will have a major bearing on whether or not FBU is now overvalued at $7.50, IMO.

[winner69]

PE of 16 on normal earnings .....once Chch kicks in will be less than 10 at this price

Future write downs and abnormals don't count ....it's normal that matters

Up up and away

[ratkin]

System not only didnt gve a sell signal , bars have now gone back to green.

Normally it goes from green to blue then red , when it goes back to green that normally a very bullish sign, the weak hands have been shaken out

4183

[gonzo56]

Yeah, I agree winner69. Like I said before.


The chart still looks healthy to me.

7.70+ within the next few trading days I reckon.

[gonzo56]

Would that be because of the DRP allotment? I.e Number of new securities issued 1,926,602. (The dip started right when that was announced)

Give it until next week then.

[macduffy]

Would that be because of the DRP allotment? I.e Number of new securities issued 1,926,602. (The dip started right when that was announced)

Give it until next week then.

FBU have been traded ex div since 26 September so payment of the 17c dividend today has had no direct bearing on the drop of 17c in the SP. Purely coincidental, although there may be some psychological influence at work here!

;)

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Maybee the quick Profit on DRP shares issued at $7.0627

[Hoop]

Maybee the quick Profit on DRP shares issued at $7.0627

Shareprice up 2% ...back to the price they were yesterday morning......
This is another shake out .........Hmmm I wonder who the buyer is?

[gonzo56]

And almost at 7.60 now... It will take quite a bit of effort to stop this momentum I think. SP has been over the 50 Day MA for the last 3 months and OBV is rising nicely. The uptrend looks confirmed to me.

[winner69]

Nearly 30% over the last few months .... nice ... and a divie as well

Soon we will be saying we never see a 7 in front of the FBU shareprice again

Up up and away

[Billy Boy]

Shareprice up 2% ...back to the price they were yesterday morning......
This is another shake out .........Hmmm I wonder who the buyer is?

Traders ???
BB

[Hoop]

Traders ???
BB

Gee thanks for that BB :p

Hey mate... hows the property scene down there..Jacks Point?...Fletcher Living and all that.

[Billy Boy]

Gee thanks for that BB :p

Hey mate... hows the property scene down there..Jacks Point?...Fletcher Living and all that.
That was Traders... question mark ??
Property scene ticking along and holding price.
Seams to be a lot of expensive prop's up for sale, many with Auckland addresses.
Would appear the stressed sellers are now gone, and buyers with $$ sitting back.
This summer will be interesting.
Jacks Point... Moving very slowly. sections are cheap, but body corp is expensive.
Kelvin Heights, Tuckers beach Road, Frankton, all doing ok. Quail rise ticking, but
one must be carefull where one buys there coz of winter shading.
Cheers BB
Regards to Mrs Hoop

[Hoop]

7.02 today ... Lets see if the sweetspot holds ... My guts says no ... 6.60 here we come.
you could right Belg the chart has got ugly these last 4 trading days.
As I type its busted...now at 6.99.
My 7.03 support (now resistance) included a gap point....usually when those types of supports break there's a gap down.
overall it looks ugly
Disc: Sold the lot on 24th Oct

[The BOWMAN]

Nearly 30% over the last few months .... nice ... and a divie as well

Soon we will be saying we never see a 7 in front of the FBU shareprice again

Up up and away

Winner69, your were right, the 7 in front of the FBU shareprice is gone again! :D

[Hoop]

7 in front back again...hard to keep those bulls down ...eh?
Toyed with the idea of jumping back in at 6.92 ..but didn't
Hurricane Sandy is bound to drum up extra business in the building product market sector in the USA..I expect this sector to definitely be be a growth sector now for 2012-13..The equity market should in theory like this unexpected growth prospect ...I wonder is the sentiment would rub off world - wide.

Edit: The storm may also prompt QE v3.1....Equity markets would like that

[percy]

7 in front back again...hard to keep those bulls down ...eh?
Toyed with the idea of jumping back in at 6.92 ..but didn't
Hurricane Sandy is bound to drum up business in the building product market sector in the USA ...I wonder is the sentiment would rub off world - wide

Great pity we no longer have Drillfix posting.I am sure he would have you drawing half hour charts with 2 minute moving averages doing about 10 trades a day.

[Hoop]

Great pity we no longer have Drillfix posting.I am sure he would have you drawing half hour charts with 2 minute moving averages doing about 10 trades a day.

Yeah ..:)
Drilly has been quiet lately....I see he visited ST today.....must be practicing his lurking skills :D